伊頓 (ETN) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Eaton Second Quarter 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, your conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的耐心等待，並歡迎參加伊頓 2023 年第二季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，您的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Yan Jin, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給主持人投資者關係高級副總裁顏進。請繼續。

Good morning, guys. Thank you all for joining us for today's Eaton second quarter earnings call. With me today are Craig Arnold, our Chairman and CEO; and Tom Okray, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

早上好傢伙。感謝大家參加今天的伊頓第二季度財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有我們的董事長兼首席執行官克雷格·阿諾德 (Craig Arnold)；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Tom Okray。

Our agenda today includes the opening remarks by Craig then he will turn it over to Tom, who will highlight the company's performance in the second quarter. As we have done in our past calls, we'll be taking questions at the end of Craig's closing commentary. The press release and the presentation we'll go through today have been posted on our website. This presentation, including adjusted earnings per share, adjusted free cash flow and other non-GAAP measures, the reconciliation in the appendix. A webcast of this call is accessible on our website and will be available for replay.

我們今天的議程包括克雷格的開場白，然後他將把它交給湯姆，湯姆將重點介紹公司第二季度的業績。正如我們在過去的電話會議中所做的那樣，我們將在克雷格的閉幕評論結束時回答問題。我們今天要討論的新聞稿和演示文稿已發佈在我們的網站上。本演示文稿包括調整後每股收益、調整後自由現金流和其他非 GAAP 指標，其調節表見附錄。本次電話會議的網絡直播可在我們的網站上觀看，並可重播。

I would like to remind you that our comments today will include statements related to expected future results of the company and are therefore forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ materially from our forecasted projection due to a wide range of risks and uncertainties that are described in our earnings release and the presentation.

我想提醒您，我們今天的評論將包括與公司預期未來業績相關的陳述，因此屬於前瞻性陳述。由於我們的收益發布和演示中描述的各種風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能與我們的預測存在重大差異。

With that, I will turn it over to Craig.

這樣，我就把它交給克雷格。

Thanks, Yan.

謝謝，嚴。

Today, we're pleased to mark the end of the first quarter with one of our strongest performances ever and a performance that strengthens our conviction about our long-term growth prospects. Our teams continue to deliver on our commitments, propelled by both strong markets and good execution. We'll begin with some of the highlights of the quarter on Page 3.

今天，我們很高興以有史以來最強勁的業績之一來標誌著第一季度的結束，這一業績增強了我們對長期增長前景的信心。在強勁的市場和良好的執行力的推動下，我們的團隊繼續履行我們的承諾。我們將從第 3 頁的本季度的一些亮點開始。

Well understood at this point, megatrends, reindustrialization, infrastructure spending are continuing to expand our markets, driving our revenue, orders and backlogs. We posted another quarter of record financial performance with strong revenue, margins and earnings growth, and we executed well. And our first half performance, along with our growing backlog is what allows us to once again raise our full year guidance. We're raising our 2023 guidance for organic growth, margins and adjusted EPS. Our EPS growth at the midpoint of our guidance is now up 16%. Tom will walk you through the details shortly, but from my perspective, the highlights of the quarter really are our growing backlog, up 22% on Electrical and 26% in Aerospace, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2 for both Electrical and Aerospace. We also generated strong operating and free cash flow, $1.2 billion and $900 million, up more than 200% and 600%, respectively.

眾所周知，大趨勢、再工業化、基礎設施支出正在繼續擴大我們的市場，推動我們的收入、訂單和積壓訂單。我們公佈了又一個季度創紀錄的財務業績，收入、利潤率和盈利增長強勁，而且執行情況良好。我們上半年的業績以及不斷增加的積壓訂單使我們能夠再次提高全年指導。我們正在提高 2023 年有機增長、利潤率和調整後每股收益的指導。我們的每股收益增長在我們指引的中點，目前增長了 16%。湯姆很快就會向您介紹詳細信息，但從我的角度來看，本季度的亮點確實是我們不斷增加的積壓訂單，電氣領域增長了 22%，航空航天領域增長了 26%，電氣和航空領域的訂單出貨比均為 1.2。航天。我們還產生了強勁的運營現金流和自由現金流，分別增長了 12 億美元和 9 億美元，分別增長超過 200% 和 600%。

Free cash flow in the first half of the year is almost $800 million above prior year, so we're on track to deliver our full year guidance despite the higher growth and higher receivable balances. Overall, we're pleased with the results and well positioned for the second half.

今年上半年的自由現金流比去年同期高出近 8 億美元，因此儘管增長較高且應收賬款餘額較高，但我們仍有望實現全年指引。總體而言，我們對結果感到滿意，並為下半年做好了準備。

Moving to Slide 4, we wanted to provide a simple framework that summarizes how we think about key growth drivers across our businesses. The important megatrends are listed here on the left at Eaton markets and our segments are listed across the top of the page. At the intersection is where we see these trends having a material impact on our growth rate of our end markets. And without getting into a lot of the detail, the important message is that this long list of mega projects is impacting many of Eaton's end markets. What we intend to do during the course of our quarterly earnings call today and really into the future is really to talk about these trends and how they impact our end markets.

轉向幻燈片 4，我們希望提供一個簡單的框架來總結我們如何看待整個業務的關鍵增長驅動因素。伊頓市場的左側列出了重要的大趨勢，頁面頂部列出了我們的細分市場。在十字路口，我們看到這些趨勢對我們終端市場的增長率產生了重大影響。在不涉及太多細節的情況下，重要的信息是這一長串的大型項目正在影響伊頓的許多終端市場。我們打算在今天和未來的季度收益電話會議上真正討論這些趨勢以及它們如何影響我們的終端市場。

Today, we'll spend a few minutes on infrastructure spending and the Inflation Reduction Act, reindustrialization and an update on mega projects as well as a look at Eaton's position in the Utility and Aerospace markets. We're highlighting the Inflation Reduction Act since its considerable upside to the initial estimates of future government spending and on mega projects because they continue to grow dramatically. We picked the Utility segment as it's quickly becoming one of our largest markets. It was approximately 15% of Electrical Americas sales last year and is running well ahead of that rate this year. We received also some extensive questions from investors about our position in this market.

今天，我們將花幾分鐘時間討論基礎設施支出和通貨膨脹削減法案、再工業化和大型項目的最新情況，以及伊頓在公用事業和航空航天市場的地位。我們之所以強調《通貨膨脹削減法案》，是因為它對未來政府支出和大型項目的初步估計有相當大的上升空間，因為它們繼續大幅增長。我們選擇公用事業領域，因為它正在迅速成為我們最大的市場之一。去年，該數字約佔 Electrical Americas 銷售額的 15%，今年的增長率將大幅提高。我們還收到了投資者關於我們在這個市場中的地位的一些廣泛問題。

Lastly, we'll highlight our Aerospace business through the double-digit growth outlook, ramping defense and commercial platforms, including a substantial new win on the Bell V-280 Valor platform.

最後，我們將通過兩位數的增長前景、不斷壯大的國防和商業平台（包括貝爾 V-280 Valor 平台的重大新勝利）來強調我們的航空航天業務。

Moving to Slide 5. We're showing an updated look at expected spending tied to the Inflation Reduction Act. Most of the spending is focused on improving U.S. infrastructure and as you can see, the estimates have increased significantly. At the time of passage, estimates on the cost impact, including credits and incentives was $271 billion. The legislation was recently rescored and government spending is now expected to be $663 billion, up nearly 2.5x due to really what is an uncapped program. Importantly, these tax credits, because they're uncapped, are expected to continue to grow. These dollars are naturally a strong catalyst for infrastructure spending much of it targeted at industries where Eaton will be a significant benefactor. The implementation of the IRA is in the very early stages, and we think will provide significant tailwinds over the next 10 years. Very little of this impact is currently in our order book, and none of it has impacted revenue yet.

轉向幻燈片 5。我們將展示與《通貨膨脹削減法案》相關的預期支出的最新情況。大部分支出都集中在改善美國基礎設施上，正如您所看到的，估計數已大幅增加。通過時，對成本影響（包括信貸和激勵措施）的估計為 2710 億美元。該立法最近經過重新評估，政府支出目前預計將達到 6,630 億美元，由於真正的無上限計劃而增加了近 2.5 倍。重要的是，這些稅收抵免由於沒有上限，預計將繼續增長。這些美元自然是基礎設施支出的強大催化劑，其中大部分針對伊頓將成為重要捐助者的行業。 IRA 的實施尚處於早期階段，我們認為它將在未來 10 年提供重要的推動力。目前，這種影響在我們的訂單中影響很小，而且還沒有對收入產生影響。

On Page 6, we have an updated chart showing the continued growth of mega projects in North America. We introduced this chart last quarter. And you'll recall that we included announced projects that are greater than $1 billion in this category. The value of announced mega projects has increased by $116 billion or 20% between March and June. So the momentum continues and we'd expect the category to continue to grow at well above historical trends.

在第 6 頁，我們有一個更新的圖表，顯示北美大型項目的持續增長。我們上個季度介紹了這張圖表。您可能還記得，我們​​在此類別中包含了已宣布的超過 10 億美元的項目。 3 月至 6 月期間，已宣布的大型項目價值增加了 1,160 億美元，即 20%。因此，這種勢頭仍在持續，我們預計該類別將繼續以遠高於歷史趨勢的速度增長。

We've seen recent announcements for EV, semiconductor plants and new battery plants, so really across the board. And a few examples of some of the other major projects include $17 billion of downstream oil and gas or chemicals, $33 billion of LNG export terminals and $64 billion in power generation and renewable energy projects.

我們最近看到了有關電動汽車、半導體工廠和新電池工廠的公告，所以確實是全面的。其他一些重大項目包括 170 億美元的下游石油和天然氣或化學品、330 億美元的液化天然氣出口終端以及 640 億美元的發電和可再生能源項目。

Just another confirming data point, the Dodge data for U.S. industrial projects continues to expand at a record pace. With 12-month manufacturing construction starts up 72% on a 12-month basis -- on a rolling 12-month basis and up 84% if you include LNG activity. And as a reminder, only 25% of these mega projects have started. So we're just at the beginning of this reindustrialization megatrend.

道奇美國工業項目數據繼續以創紀錄的速度擴張，這是另一個證實的數據點。在 12 個月的基礎上，製造業開工率在 12 個月的基礎上增長了 72%——在滾動的 12 個月的基礎上，如果包括液化天然氣活動，則增長 84%。提醒一下，這些大型項目中只有 25% 已經啟動。因此，我們正處於再工業化大趨勢的開始階段。

Lastly, I'll remind you that we expect each of these mega projects to have between 3% and 5% electrical content.

最後，我要提醒您的是，我們預計每個大型項目的電力含量都在 3% 到 5% 之間。

Moving to Page 7, we highlight the Utility segment of the Americas business. As we reported, in 2022, this market accounted for approximately 15% of Electrical Americas revenue and represents an even bigger percent to date. We've historically viewed the Utility segment as a stable but slow growth business, generally in the low single digits. Over the next decade, Utility distribution CapEx will account for 60% of the total Utility CapEx globally, growing at a CAGR of 9%. Over the '22 to '25 period, we would expect an 11% CAGR.

轉到第 7 頁，我們重點介紹美洲業務的公用事業部門。正如我們報導的那樣，到 2022 年，該市場約佔 Electrical Americas 收入的 15%，迄今為止所佔比例甚至更高。我們歷來將公用事業領域視為穩定但增長緩慢的業務，通常處於較低的個位數。未來十年，公用事業分銷資本支出將佔全球公用事業資本支出總額的 60%，複合年增長率為 9%。在 22 年至 25 年期間，我們預計複合年增長率為 11%。

The impact of sustainability initiatives across the globe have significantly boosted this number. This includes grid modernization, renewable energy, electrification of everything, enhanced reliability and safety needs and government incentives are all contributing to this growth outlook. And while the electrical needs of the world continue to increase, our Utility customers are finding it challenging to maintain an increasingly aging grid infrastructure.

全球可持續發展舉措的影響顯著增加了這一數字。這包括電網現代化、可再生能源、一切電氣化、增強的可靠性和安全性需求以及政府激勵措施都有助於實現這一增長前景。儘管世界各地的電力需求不斷增加，但我們的公用事業客戶發現維護日益老化的電網基礎設施具有挑戰性。

As a point of reference, over 70% of U.S. transmission and distribution lines are over 25 years old. We're naturally making capital investments to address the growth here and have already committed to new capacity in our 3 major product families, transformers, voltage regulators and line insulation products. It's worth highlighting that in this quarter, our Americas Utility business backlog has increased 45%, organic revenues grew 30% in the Americas and 20% in our Global segment.

作為參考，美國 70% 以上的輸電和配電線路的使用年限都超過 25 年。我們自然會進行資本投資來應對這裡的增長，並已承諾在我們的 3 個主要產品系列（變壓器、電壓調節器和線路絕緣產品）中增加新產能。值得強調的是，本季度，我們的美洲公用事業業務積壓增加了 45%，美洲的有機收入增長了 30%，全球部門的有機收入增長了 20%。

The graphics on Page 8 highlight Eaton's unique position in the North America Utility market where we're primarily focused on distribution. And given the significant changes taking place in this market, including the need to integrate renewables, undergrounding for increased resiliency, the increased demand for grid services, we cannot be more pleased with what we have to offer in this segment.

第 8 頁上的圖表突出了伊頓在北美公用事業市場中的獨特地位，我們主要專注於分銷。考慮到這個市場正在發生的重大變化，包括整合可再生能源的需要、提高彈性的地下工程、電網服務需求的增加，我們對我們在這一領域提供的服務感到非常滿意。

You can see from this slide that we have a broad position in the market. In fact, we have the industry's broadest portfolio of utility solutions. This includes grid planning software, design and engineering services, a complete offering of critical utility products, automation software as well as extensive project management expertise. We also offer a broad range of digitally enabled hardware, grid edge controllers for overhead, underground and for substations.

從這張幻燈片中您可以看到我們在市場上擁有廣泛的地位。事實上，我們擁有業界最廣泛的公用事業解決方案組合。這包括電網規劃軟件、設計和工程服務、全套關鍵公用事業產品、自動化軟件以及廣泛的項目管理專業知識。我們還提供廣泛的數字化硬件、用於架空、地下和變電站的電網邊緣控制器。

Lastly, our Brightlayer solution for Utility includes distribution planning software, distribution and substation automation as well as smart grid communications sensors and demand management. So overall, we're well positioned given our substantial portfolio of hardware, digitally enabled software and solutions. And in the quarter, we secured a broad range of wins in the market, including hardware solutions for voltage regulators, power distribution, digital solutions for grid planning and our software, we call CYME and smart metering and also in utility services.

最後，我們的 Brightlayer 公用事業解決方案包括配電規劃軟件、配電和變電站自動化以及智能電網通信傳感器和需求管理。總的來說，鑑於我們擁有大量的硬件、數字化軟件和解決方案組合，我們處於有利地位。在本季度，我們在市場上取得了廣泛的勝利，包括電壓調節器、配電的硬件解決方案、電網規劃的數字解決方案以及我們的軟件（我們稱之為 CYME 和智能計量）以及公用事業服務。

Moving to Page 9, we'd like to highlight another well-known trend, the growth in aerospace markets. As you can see, we expect double-digit growth in each of the years between now and 2025, driven by the rebound in commercial OEM, commercial aftermarket and increased defense spending. The commercial market is expected to be very strong as Airbus and Boeing are both significantly increasing production volumes and are expected to materially increase production on their most important platforms.

轉到第 9 頁，我們想強調另一個眾所周知的趨勢，即航空航天市場的增長。正如您所看到的，我們預計從現在到 2025 年，在商業 OEM、商業售後市場反彈和國防支出增加的推動下，每年都會出現兩位數的增長。商業市場預計將非常強勁，因為空客和波音都在大幅增加產量，並預計將大幅增加其最重要平台的產量。

For example, Airbus is expected to increase production on the A320 from 45 to 50 per month currently to 75 per month by 2026. And Boeing is expected to increase production on the 737 from 31 per month currently to 50 per month in the '25 to '26 time frame. And global passenger air travel is expected to return to 2019 levels by the end of this year and grow at an 11% CAGR between now and 2025.

例如，空客預計到 2026 年將 A320 的產量從目前的每月 45 架增加到每月 50 架，到 2026 年將增加到每月 75 架。波音公司預計將 737 的產量從目前的每月 31 架增加到每月 50 架。 '26 時間範圍。全球客運航空旅行預計將在今年年底恢復到 2019 年的水平，並從現在到 2025 年以 11% 的複合年增長率增長。

We also expect to see increased defense spending driven by various global conflicts, and governments allocating more dollars to our type of equipment to improve fleet readiness. Our Aerospace business is especially well positioned on key defense platforms both those targeted for modernization and on new platforms that are being ramped up.

我們還預計，各種全球衝突將推動國防支出增加，各國政府也會為我們的設備分配更多資金，以提高艦隊的戰備狀態。我們的航空航天業務在關鍵國防平台上尤其處於有利地位，無論是針對現代化的平台還是正在擴建的新平台。

On Slide 10, in addition to the high-volume single-aisle growth that you hear so much about, the next group of key platforms driving new growth today and into the future are listed here. These platforms are a good representation of important platforms ramping in the near term over the next 5 years, and critical growth platforms for future decades.

在幻燈片 10 上，除了您經常聽到的高容量單通道增長之外，這裡還列出了推動當前和未來新增長的下一組關鍵平台。這些平台很好地代表了未來 5 年短期內增長的重要平台以及未來幾十年的關鍵增長平台。

In all cases, we have more content than ever on each of these aircraft. In the future category, we're showing the win with the Bell on the V-28 Valor program. The V-28 is a replacement for the Black Hawk helicopter, and we have 5x more content and are still bidding for more opportunities. We put the KC-46A and the F-35 in the next category, aircraft that will be ramping in the near term and will contribute materially to our revenue growth beginning next year. As you can see, our content per aircraft here is 2 to 3x the legacy platform.

在所有情況下，我們在每架飛機上都擁有比以往更多的內容。在未來類別中，我們將展示貝爾在 V-28 Valor 計劃中的勝利。 V-28 是黑鷹直升機的替代品，我們的內容增加了 5 倍，並且仍在爭取更多機會。我們將 KC-46A 和 F-35 歸入下一個類別，這些飛機將在短期內大量增加，並將為我們從明年開始的收入增長做出重大貢獻。正如您所看到的，我們每架飛機的內容是傳統平台的 2 到 3 倍。

And lastly, we're starting to see once again growth in the wide-body market. The long-haul market has been especially weak during the COVID and post-COVID period and is now beginning to pick up. The important message here is that these programs -- as these programs ramp up, we'd expect to grow faster than our end markets given the increased content on each of these programs. So between market recovery and increased content per platform, our Aerospace business is expected to see significant growth over the next 5 years or even longer.

最後，我們開始再次看到寬體市場的增長。長途市場在新冠疫情期間和後疫情期間尤其疲軟，但現在開始回升。這裡重要的信息是，隨著這些計劃的增加，考慮到每個計劃內容的增加，我們預計其增長速度將快於我們的終端市場。因此，隨著市場復甦和每個平台內容的增加，我們的航空航天業務預計將在未來 5 年甚至更長時間內實現顯著增長。

Now I'll turn it over to Tom, who will take us through the financial slides.

現在我將把它交給湯姆，他將帶我們瀏覽財務幻燈片。

Thanks, Craig.

謝謝，克雷格。

I'll start by providing a summary of our record Q2 results. Organic growth continues to be strong, up 13% for the quarter, the sixth quarter in a row with double-digit organic growth. Operating profit, an all-time quarterly record grew 21% and segment margins expanded 150 basis points to 21.6%, also an all-time quarterly record.

首先，我將概述我們創紀錄的第二季度業績。有機增長繼續強勁，本季度增長 13%，連續第六個季度實現兩位數有機增長。營業利潤增長 21%，創歷史季度記錄，部門利潤率擴大 150 個基點，達到 21.6%，也創歷史季度記錄。

We posted solid incremental margins of 33%, up sequentially from 27% in Q1. Adjusted EPS increased by 18% over the prior year to $2.21, an all-time quarterly record and well above the high end of our guidance range.

我們公佈的利潤率穩健增量為 33%，高於第一季度的 27%。調整後每股收益比上年增長 18%，達到 2.21 美元，創歷史季度記錄，遠高於我們指導範圍的上限。

Looking at our first half results, we've had a very strong start to the year with organic growth of 14%, segment margins up 130 basis points, incremental margin of 30% and adjusted EPS growth of 17%. Finally, last year, we explained that we were making a deliberate decision to invest in working capital to protect our customers and their orders. With supply chains improving, we are now able to better optimize working capital. The result, together with strong earnings is a 600% increase in free cash flow in the first half of the year to $900 million.

看看我們上半年的業績，我們今年開局非常強勁，有機增長 14%，部門利潤率增長 130 個基點，增量利潤率 30%，調整後每股收益增長 17%。最後，去年，我們解釋說，我們正在深思熟慮地決定投資營運資金，以保護我們的客戶及其訂單。隨著供應鏈的改善，我們現在能夠更好地優化營運資金。結果，加上強勁的盈利，今年上半年的自由現金流增加了 600%，達到 9 億美元。

Moving on to the next chart. Our Electrical Americas business delivered another very strong quarter. The megatrends are having a favorable impact on our U.S. business. We set all-time quarterly records for sales, operating profit and segment margin.

繼續看下一張圖表。我們的電氣美洲業務又迎來了一個非常強勁的季度。大趨勢正在對我們的美國業務產生有利影響。我們創下了銷售額、營業利潤和部門利潤率的歷史季度記錄。

Beginning with the topline, organic sales growth of 19% remains very strong. Electrical Americas has generated double-digit organic growth for 6 consecutive quarters with 5 of the quarters greater than 15%. On a 2-year stack, organic growth is up 35%. In the quarter, there was broad-based growth in nearly all end markets, with especially robust growth of 25% to 30% in data center, utility, industrial and commercial and institutional end markets. Operating margin of 26.4% was up 320 basis points versus prior year, benefiting from higher volumes and effective management of price cost.

從營收開始，19% 的有機銷售額增長仍然非常強勁。 Electrical Americas 已連續 6 個季度實現兩位數有機增長，其中 5 個季度超過 15%。兩年來，有機增長高達 35%。本季度，幾乎所有終端市場都出現了廣泛的增長，其中數據中心、公用事業、工業和商業以及機構終端市場的增長尤其強勁，達到 25% 至 30%。得益於銷量的增加和價格成本的有效管理，營業利潤率為 26.4%，比上年增長了 320 個基點。

On a rolling 12-month basis, orders grew 7% with particular strength in data center and distributed IT, industrial and commercial and institutional end markets. Book-to-bill ratio remains above 1. We increased backlog by 30% year-over-year and sequentially 3%. It's worth noting that we secured orders for 2 large data centers worth nearly $300 million, including content to support these customers' AI growth projections.

在連續 12 個月的基礎上，訂單增長了 7%，其中數據中心和分佈式 IT、工業和商業以及機構終端市場的訂單增長尤為強勁。訂單出貨比保持在 1 以上。我們的積壓訂單同比增加了 30%，環比增加了 3%。值得注意的是，我們獲得了價值近 3 億美元的 2 個大型數據中心的訂單，其中包括支持這些客戶的人工智能增長預測的內容。

Finally, our major project negotiations pipeline in Q2 was up more than 17% versus prior year and nearly 9% sequentially from especially strong growth in data center, institutional, government, health care and transportation markets. On a 2-year stack, our negotiation pipeline was up 65%. Overall, Electrical Americas continues to have a very strong year.

最後，由於數據中心、機構、政府、醫療保健和運輸市場的強勁增長，我們第二季度的主要項目談判渠道比去年同期增長了 17% 以上，環比增長了近 9%。兩年來，我們的談判渠道增加了 65%。總體而言，美洲電氣展今年繼續表現強勁。

On Page 13, you'll find the results of our Electrical Global segment, which posted all-time record sales of nearly $1.6 billion. Organic growth was up 6%, which was partially offset by a small divestiture. This represents a 2-year stack of 18% organic growth. The growth was broad-based, driven by strength in utility, data center and distributed IT and industrial end markets. Operating margin of 18.5% improved 20 basis points sequentially, but was down 40 basis points prior -- compared to prior year. The year-over-year decline was mostly driven by unfavorable product mix, partially offset by effective management of price cost and higher volumes. Orders were up 1% on a rolling 12-month basis with strength in utility and data center and IT end markets. Importantly, book-to-bill remained greater than 1.

在第 13 頁，您將看到我們的 Electrical Global 部門的業績，該部門的銷售額創歷史新高，接近 16 億美元。有機增長增長 6%，但部分被小規模資產剝離所抵消。這代表著 2 年有機增長 18%。在公用事業、數據中心、分佈式 IT 和工業終端市場實力的推動下，這一增長基礎廣泛。營業利潤率為 18.5%，比上一季度提高了 20 個基點，但與去年同期相比下降了 40 個基點。同比下降主要是由不利的產品組合推動的，但部分被價格成本的有效管理和銷量增加所抵消。由於公用事業、數據中心和 IT 終端市場的強勁勢頭，訂單連續 12 個月增長了 1%。重要的是，訂單出貨比仍大於 1。

Before moving to our industrial businesses, I'd like to briefly recap the combined Electrical segment.

在討論我們的工業業務之前，我想簡要回顧一下合併後的電氣部門。

For Q2, we posted organic growth of 14%, incremental margin of 38% and segment margin of 23.4%, which was up 200 basis points over prior year. On a rolling 12-month basis, our book-to-bill for our Electrical sector remains very strong at 1.2 and our record backlog grew 22%. We remain very confident in our positioning for continued growth with strong margins in our overall Electrical business.

第二季度，我們的有機增長為 14%，增量利潤率為 38%，部門利潤率為 23.4%，比去年同期增長 200 個基點。從 12 個月的滾動來看，我們電氣部門的訂單出貨比仍然非常強勁，達到 1.2，我們的積壓訂單增長了 22%，創歷史新高。我們對整體電氣業務持續增長和強勁利潤的定位非常有信心。

The next slide highlights our Aerospace segment. We posted an all-time quarterly sales record and a Q2 operating profit record. Organic growth was 14% for the quarter. We've posted double-digit growth in 5 of the last 6 quarters in this segment. Growth was driven by broad strength across all markets with particularly strong growth in commercial OEM and commercial aftermarket, which were up 21% and 30%, respectively. Operating margin was 22.5%, up 60 basis points over last year primarily driven by higher volumes.

下一張幻燈片重點介紹了我們的航空航天部門。我們創下了歷史季度銷售記錄和第二季度營業利潤記錄。該季度的有機增長率為 14%。過去 6 個季度中，我們在該領域有 5 個季度實現了兩位數增長。增長是由所有市場的廣泛實力推動的，其中商業 OEM 和商業售後市場的增長尤為強勁，分別增長了 21% 和 30%。營業利潤率為 22.5%，比去年增長 60 個基點，主要是由於銷量增加。

Growth in orders and backlog continued to be very strong. On a rolling 12-month basis, orders organically accelerated from up 21% in Q1 to up 26% in Q2 with especially strong growth in defense, OEM and aftermarket for both commercial and defense. Year-over-year backlog growth increased 26% in Q2, in line with growth in Q1. On a rolling 12-month basis, our book-to-bill for Aerospace remains very strong at 1.2x.

訂單和積壓訂單的增長繼續強勁。在連續 12 個月的基礎上，訂單有機增長，從第一季度的 21% 增長到第二季度的 26%，其中國防、OEM 以及商業和國防售後​​市場的增長尤為強勁。第二季度積壓訂單同比增長 26%，與第一季度的增長一致。從 12 個月的滾動來看，我們航空航天業務的訂單出貨比仍保持在 1.2 倍的強勁水平。

Moving on to our Vehicle segment on Page 15. In Q2, organic growth was up 6%. We saw particularly strong growth in North America light vehicle, APAC and EMEA markets, all up double digits. Operating margins came in at 15.3%. During the quarter, we delivered improvements in our manufacturing facilities, which contributed to sequential margin improvement of 80 basis points. We continue to win new business tied to clean technology solutions, including multiple clean commercial valve actuation programs. Additionally, we've won over $60 million per year in program length extensions and volume increases with multiple OEMs.

接下來是第 15 頁的車輛細分市場。第二季度，有機增長了 6%。我們看到北美輕型汽車、亞太地區和歐洲、中東和非洲市場的增長尤為強勁，均實現兩位數增長。營業利潤率為 15.3%。本季度，我們改進了生產設施，使利潤率環比提高了 80 個基點。我們繼續贏得與清潔技術解決方案相關的新業務，包括多個清潔商業閥門驅動項目。此外，我們每年還通過與多家 OEM 廠商的項目長度擴展和產量增加贏得了超過 6000 萬美元的收入。

On Page 16, we show results for our eMobility business. We generated another quarter of strong growth. Organic revenue was up 18%. Margin improved 100 basis points versus prior year, mostly driven by higher volumes. Overall, we remain very encouraged by the growth prospects of the eMobility segment.

在第 16 頁，我們展示了電動交通業務的結果。我們又實現了一個季度的強勁增長。有機收入增長了 18%。利潤率較上年提高 100 個基點，主要是由於銷量增加。總體而言，我們仍然對電動汽車領域的增長前景感到非常鼓舞。

So far in 2023, we have won new programs with more than $450 million of mature year revenues, positioning us very well to exceed our 2025 target of $1.2 billion of revenue. Through these wins, we continue to find opportunities to leverage expertise across all segments. For example, we reached an agreement with a major OEM to supply power electronics control unit for an electrically heated catalyst to meet emissions regulations. This win demonstrates Eaton's ability to leverage capabilities across our entire portfolio, including core technology in both electrical and industrial businesses, such as break Breaktor, power protection and Bussmann fuses. We've also capitalized on our extensive vehicle expertise and added content in connectors from our Royal Power acquisition.

2023 年到目前為止，我們已經贏得了年收入超過 4.5 億美元的新項目，這使我們能夠很好地超越 2025 年 12 億美元收入的目標。通過這些勝利，我們繼續尋找機會利用各個領域的專業知識。例如，我們與一家主要 OEM 達成協議，為電加熱催化劑提供電力電子控制單元，以滿足排放法規。此次勝利表明伊頓有能力利用我們整個產品組合的能力，包括電氣和工業業務的核心技術，例如斷路斷路器、電力保護和 Bussmann 熔斷器。我們還利用了豐富的車輛專業知識，並通過收購 Royal Power 增加了連接器內容。

Moving to Page 17. We show our Electrical and Aerospace backlog updated through Q2. As you can see, we continue to build backlog with Electrical stepping up to $9.1 billion, a sequential increase of 2%. Electrical backlog is up about 110% since Q2 of 2021 and over 200% higher than Q2 2020. Aerospace backlog is holding steady at $3 billion. This is a 30% increase since Q2 2021 and over 100% higher than Q2 of 2020. On a rolling 12-month basis, book-to-bill was 1.2 for both Electrical and Aerospace with absolute orders remaining at high levels and record backlogs, our book-to-bill over 1x is yet again a key metric that gives us confidence in our outlook into the quarters to come. With all the tailwinds in our end markets, we think it is likely that we will have high levels of backlog going forward, which enhances our visibility over the planning horizon.

轉到第 17 頁。我們顯示了截至第二季度更新的電氣和航空航天積壓訂單。正如您所看到的，我們繼續積壓訂單，其中 Electrical 增加至 91 億美元，環比增長 2%。自 2021 年第二季度以來，電力積壓訂單增加了約 110%，比 2020 年第二季度增加了 200% 以上。航空航天積壓訂單穩定在 30 億美元。自 2021 年第二季度以來增長了 30%，比 2020 年第二季度高出 100% 以上。在連續 12 個月的基礎上，電氣和航空航天的訂單出貨比為 1.2，絕對訂單保持在高水平，積壓訂單創歷史新高，我們的訂單出貨比超過 1 倍再次成為一個關鍵指標，讓我們對未來幾個季度的前景充滿信心。鑑於我們終端市場的所有有利因素，我們認為未來可能會有大量積壓，這提高了我們在規劃範圍內的可見性。

On the next page, we show our fiscal year organic growth and operating margin guidance. We are raising our organic growth guidance for 2023 in both Electrical Americas and for the total company. We now expect organic growth in Electrical Americas of 14% to 16%, up 300 basis points from our prior 11% to 13% guidance. This represents a 600 basis point improvement from our starting 2023 guidance for the business.

在下一頁中，我們展示了本財年的有機增長和營業利潤率指導。我們正在提高美國電氣公司和整個公司 2023 年的有機增長指導。我們現在預計美洲電氣公司的有機增長為 14% 至 16%，比我們之前的 11% 至 13% 指導值高出 300 個基點。這比我們 2023 年開始的業務指引提高了 600 個基點。

In total, we're raising our 2023 organic growth outlook to a midpoint of 11%, up from a 10% midpoint in our prior guidance. Our strong end market growth forecast, expanding negotiations pipeline and building backlog provide tremendous visibility and confidence in this 2023 outlook.

總的來說，我們將 2023 年有機增長前景從之前指導中的 10% 中點上調至 11%。我們強勁的終端市場增長預測、不斷擴大的談判渠道和積壓的訂單為 2023 年的前景提供了巨大的可見性和信心。

For segment margins, we are increasing our total Eaton margin guidance range by 40 basis points from a prior range of 20.7% to 21.1% to a new range of 21.1% to 21.5%. This is a result of an improved outlook in Electrical Americas where we increased the range by 80 basis points on strong demand and continued strong operational execution. The increased outlook now represents a 110 basis point increase from the midpoint of our 2022 all-time record margins.

對於分部利潤率，我們將伊頓總利潤率指導範圍提高了 40 個基點，從之前的 20.7% 至 21.1% 範圍提高到 21.1% 至 21.5% 的新範圍。這是美洲電氣前景改善的結果，由於強勁的需求和持續強勁的運營執行，我們將範圍提高了 80 個基點。目前，上調的預期意味著比我們 2022 年曆史記錄利潤率的中值提高了 110 個基點。

In summary, at the halfway mark, we remain well positioned to deliver another very strong year of financial performance.

總而言之，在過去的半年裡，我們仍然處於有利地位，可以實現又一個非常強勁的財務業績。

On the next page, we have additional guidance metrics for 2023 and Q3. Following our strong first half performance and improved organic growth expectations for the year, we're raising our full year EPS range to $8.65 and to $8.85. At the midpoint, the $8.75, we have raised guidance by $0.35. This represents 16% growth in adjusted EPS in 2023 over prior year. We now expect currency translation to be roughly neutral and the remainder of our full year guidance remains unchanged.

在下一頁上，我們提供了 2023 年和第三季度的其他指導指標。繼上半年表現強勁和今年有機增長預期改善後，我們將全年每股收益範圍提高至 8.65 美元和 8.85 美元。在中間值 8.75 美元處，我們將指導意見上調了 0.35 美元。這意味著 2023 年調整後每股收益比上年增長 16%。我們現在預計貨幣換算將大致保持中性，並且我們全年指引的其餘部分保持不變。

For Q3, we're guiding organic growth of 9% to 11%. Segment margins of between 22% and 22.4% representing a 100 basis point improvement at the midpoint versus prior year, and adjusted EPS in the range of $2.27 to $2.35, a 15% increase versus prior year at the midpoint.

對於第三季度，我們指導有機增長 9% 至 11%。部門利潤率在 22% 至 22.4% 之間，較上年中點提高 100 個基點，調整後每股收益在 2.27 美元至 2.35 美元之間，較上年中點增長 15%。

Now I'll hand it back to Craig to wrap up the presentation.

現在我將把它交還給克雷格來結束演示。

Thanks, Tom.

謝謝，湯姆。

Now turning to Page 20. As a reminder, last quarter, we raised our growth assumption for the Utility market to strong double-digit growth, and we increased our Residential market outlook to flat from declining. We're now increasing our growth assumption for the commercial institutional and for data center markets to strong double-digit growth. In addition to stronger than anticipated demand for new projects, existing buildings are being retrofitted with more electrical infrastructure as EVs continue to increase their penetration in the market, and data center demand continues to remain at very high levels and we now expect to see double-digit growth in this market as well.

現在翻到第 20 頁。提醒一下，上個季度，我們將公用事業市場的增長假設上調至強勁的兩位數增長，並將住宅市場前景從下降上調至持平。我們現在將商業機構和數據中心市場的增長假設提高到強勁的兩位數增長。除了對新項目的需求強於預期之外，隨著電動汽車在市場上的滲透率不斷提高，現有建築物正在改造更多的電力基礎設施，數據中心的需求繼續保持在非常高的水平，我們現在預計會看到雙倍的增長這個市場的數字增長也是如此。

The balance of our end markets continue to perform well and are tracking along our prior projections. So while the macroeconomic outlook remains choppy, we continue to expect growth in almost all of our markets.

我們的終端市場繼續表現良好，並符合我們之前的預測。因此，儘管宏觀經濟前景仍然不穩定，但我們仍然預計幾乎所有市場都會增長。

I'll close with a summary on Page 21.

我將在第 21 頁上進行總結。

As you can tell, we're feeling good about how our markets are performing this year, and we think that we'll be strong for many more years to come. In fact, the megatrends that we've discussed for some time now are expected to be even more impactful than we originally anticipated. Our markets are strong, but we also had solid execution in the quarter and delivered another strong set of results that included a number of financial records. And as we look to the back half of the year and into 2024, our increasing backlog provides great visibility on our growth outlook. As noted, we raised our guidance for growth and EPS for the second time, and our largest business, Electrical Americas, continues to post new records.

正如您所知，我們對今年市場的表現感覺良好，並且我們認為我們將在未來的許多年裡保持強勁。事實上，我們已經討論了一段時間的大趨勢預計將比我們最初預期的影響更大。我們的市場強勁，但我們在本季度也有穩健的執行力，並交付了另一組強勁的業績，其中包括許多財務記錄。當我們展望今年下半年和 2024 年時，我們不斷增加的積壓訂單為我們的增長前景提供了清晰的視野。如前所述，我們第二次提高了增長和每股收益指引，我們最大的業務美洲電氣公司繼續創下新紀錄。

With that, we'll open it up for questions you may have.

這樣，我們將打開它來回答您可能有的問題。

Thanks, Craig. For the Q&A today, please limit your opportunity to just 1 question and 1 follow-up. Thanks everyone for your cooperation.

謝謝，克雷格。對於今天的問答，請將您的機會限制在 1 個問題和 1 次跟進。感謝大家的合作。

With that, I will turn it over to the operator to give you guys the instructions.

這樣，我會將其交給操作員，為你們提供指示。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自高盛的 Joe Ritchie。

Congrats, everyone. So look, my first question, you guys called out a few of those large data center wins that you booked into orders this quarter. I'm just curious, Craig, maybe just kind of help conceptualize what that means from like content per data center and how that's going to -- how that's shifting for your business now that there's a lot of discussion around generative AI and what that means for you guys?

恭喜大家。所以，我的第一個問題是，你們列出了本季度訂單中的一些大型數據中心勝利。我只是好奇，克雷格，也許只是幫助概念化每個數據中心的類似內容意味著什麼，以及這將如何發生——現在有很多關於生成人工智能的討論及其意味著什麼，這將如何改變你的業務對於你們來說？

I appreciate the question, Joe. And I know there's been a lot of discussion around AI and how it's going to impact the world, not only kind of data centers. But I would tell you that the data center market, as we've talked about on these calls for some time now, has been strong and it's been strong for multiple years. And AI side, that market has been growing at double digit. And I'd tell you that the big wins that we booked during the quarter, I'd say most of that really has nothing to do with the AI impact yet. A lot of that is in the future. A lot of the major data center players are still trying to sort out the way they're going to configure their data centers, to deal with this AI environment and the increased energy intensity.

我很欣賞這個問題，喬。我知道圍繞人工智能及其將如何影響世界（而不僅僅是數據中心）進行了很多討論。但我想告訴你，正如我們在這些電話會議上討論了一段時間的那樣，數據中心市場一直很強勁，而且多年來一直保持強勁。在人工智能方面，該市場一直在以兩位數的速度增長。我想告訴你，我們在本季度取得的重大勝利，我想說其中大部分實際上與人工智能的影響無關。其中很多都是未來的事情。許多主要數據中心參與者仍在嘗試找出配置數據中心的方式，以應對人工智能環境和增加的能源強度。

So I'd say, for us, it was just another very strong quarter of data center wins that really has not seen the impact yet of this whole emergence of generative AI. So it's -- we're feeling great about that market and we think generative AI and its downstream implications are just going to keep that market strong for a much longer period of time, and we're well positioned there.

所以我想說，對我們來說，這只是數據中心又一個非常強勁的季度勝利，但實際上還沒有看到生成人工智能的整個出現的影響。所以，我們對這個市場感覺很好，我們認為生成人工智能及其下游影響將使該市場在更長的時間內保持強勁，而我們在那里處於有利地位。

That's great to hear. And maybe just a broader question around your backlog and the type of visibility that it's providing for you. I think I asked you last year whether -- why wouldn't you be able to grow double digits this year. And now it looks like you're very well on track to do so. Trying to really kind of think through the implications of your backlog today and what that means for 2024 and beyond. So any comments around that would be helpful.

聽到這個消息我很高興。也許只是一個更廣泛的問題，圍繞您的待辦事項及其為您提供的可見性類型。我想我去年問過你們是否——為什麼你們今年不能實現兩位數的增長。現在看起來您已經完全步入正軌了。嘗試真正思考今天積壓的影響以及這對 2024 年及以後意味著什麼。因此，任何有關此問題的評論都會有所幫助。

Yes. I mean as you can imagine, we're not in a position to provide guidance at this point for 2024, given the fact that it's still early in the year, and we'll probably have an opportunity to do that towards the end of the year as we would normally do so. But to your point, I mean, the backlog continues to grow. And the backlog, as you saw in these reports, is up multiples of where we've been historically, which gives us much better visibility -- better visibly than we've ever had into the outlook for the upcoming 12 to 18 months. And so we're feeling very good about what 2024 is going to look like. It will be another strong growth year for the company, and we'll certainly provide some guidance on what the year looks like as a part of our normal process and timing for giving the outlook.

是的。我的意思是，正如您可以想像的那樣，鑑於現在還處於今年年初，我們目前無法提供 2024 年的指導，而且我們可能有機會在 2024 年年底提供指導。我們通常會這樣做。但就你的觀點而言，我的意思是，積壓的訂單繼續增加。正如您在這些報告中看到的那樣，積壓的訂單數量是我們歷史水平的數倍，這使我們能夠更好地了解未來 12 到 18 個月的前景。因此，我們對 2024 年的情況感到非常滿意。這將是該公司又一個強勁增長的一年，作為我們正常流程和展望展望時間的一部分，我們肯定會就這一年的情況提供一些指導。

But the backlog, it certainly gives us a lot of courage with respect to what we think the year is going to look like, given that the growth and where it is relative to where it has been historically.

但考慮到增長以及相對於歷史水平的情況，積壓的訂單確實給了我們很大的勇氣來思考今年的情況。

And maybe I can just piggyback on to that a little bit. We've seen a lot of focus on order intake and certainly, that's a very important metric to look at. But it's important that you look at it in the context of this historically high backlog that we have together with the protracted delivery times and lead times that we have.

也許我可以稍微借鑒一下這一點。我們看到很多人都關注訂單量，當然，這是一個非常重要的指標。但重要的是，您應該在我們積壓的歷史高位以及交貨時間和交貨時間延長的背景下看待它。

So as Craig alluded to, we're nearly 3x our historical backlog coverage. And we went through modeling scenarios where you look at various order intake declines and combine that with robust organic growth, we're confident that we will not hit our historical backlog coverage timing until 2 to 3 years out. So we're very bullish on the transparency that the backlog gives us, and it really does mute the order intake in order to decline a little bit.

正如克雷格提到的，我們的歷史積壓覆蓋率幾乎是歷史的三倍。我們對場景進行了建模，觀察各種訂單量的下降，並將其與強勁的有機增長相結合，我們有信心在 2 到 3 年後才能達到歷史積壓覆蓋時間。因此，我們非常看好積壓訂單給我們帶來的透明度，它確實減少了訂單量，從而略有下降。

Your next question is Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題是來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

So I feel like you guys have done a really great job of kind of scoring some of the background announcements, whether it's the mega projects or, I guess, Slide 5 with some of the stuff from IRA. Maybe just give us an update on where we are in looking through that. I would imagine the vast majority of that is not really in the order book. You talked about really high custom interaction or engagement or kind of the front log, I forget what the exact term was. But where are we through kind of those orders or initial discussions yet?

所以我覺得你們在為一些背景公告打分方面做得非常出色，無論是大型項目還是我猜幻燈片 5 中的一些來自 IRA 的內容。也許只是向我們提供有關我們正在調查的最新情況。我想其中絕大多數並不真正在訂單簿中。您談到了非常高的自定義交互或參與度或前端日誌，我忘記了確切的術語是什麼。但這些命令或初步討論進展到什麼程度了呢？

No, I appreciate the commentary, Josh, and this is, I think, really an important message with respect to some of these big government stimulus spending or whether it's the government stimulus spending and its impact or the mega projects that we're talking about. We do think one of the key messages that we think is important to kind of get your head around is the fact that most of this impact has not showed up at this point in our order book, and it certainly has not shown up in our revenues. We did talk about on some of the infrastructure projects, some $2 billion of projects that we have visibility to, we've won visibility. $1 billion of that have been out to quote, we won about half of that. But that is a really small piece of the total dollars that will ultimately be spent tied to some of these infrastructure and other mega projects that we talked about.

不，我很欣賞你的評論，喬什，我認為這確實是一個重要的信息，涉及到一些大型政府刺激支出，或者無論是政府刺激支出及其影響還是我們正在談論的大型項目。我們確實認為，我們認為對您理解很重要的關鍵信息之一是，大部分影響目前尚未出現在我們的訂單簿中，而且它肯定還沒有出現在我們的收入中。我們確實討論了一些基礎設施項目，我們已經了解了大約 20 億美元的項目，我們已經贏得了關注。其中 10 億美元已報價，我們贏得了大約一半。但這只是最終用於我們討論的一些基礎設施和其他大型項目的總美元中的一小部分。

And so it is very early innings for us with respect to the forward-looking programs that we've shared with you on these calls, and it's what gives us confidence that what we're dealing with here is a long-term structural shift in our business with respect to the underlying growth rates. And we'll certainly continue to report out as we learn more, and we'll do this on a quarterly basis. But really encouraged by the fact that most of the goodness that we're talking about is still a future.

因此，對於我們在這些電話會議中與大家分享的前瞻性計劃而言，這對我們來說還處於早期階段，這讓我們相信我們正在處理的是長期結構性轉變。我們的業務的基本增長率。隨著我們了解更多信息，我們肯定會繼續報告，並且我們將按季度進行報告。但我們所談論的大部分美好事物仍然是未來，這一事實確實令人鼓舞。

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe just a quick follow-up, respecting that orders and backlog have kind of had their own cadence right now with what you guys are going through and just explained. Are the shorter cycle parts of Electrical seeing kind of that lead time normalization show up in orders. I think some of your peers have seen that. Obviously, you guys are longer cycle and things like switchgear maybe don't fall into it. But any part of that where you're seeing either like a destock or a lead time normalization show up?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後也許只是快速跟進，尊重訂單和積壓工作現在已經有了自己的節奏，你們正在經歷並剛剛解釋過。電氣的周期較短的部分是否會在訂單中看到交貨時間標準化。我想你的一些同行已經看到了這一點。顯然，你們的周期較長，開關設備之類的東西可能不屬於其中。但是，您是否看到其中出現了庫存減少或交貨時間正常化等情況？

Yes. We're certainly not seeing any destocking across the business, but in fact, to your point, around the short-cycle businesses, whether that's resi or what's happening in the OEM channel or distributed IT, those would be 3 shorter cycle markets that we clearly have seen a slowdown in orders overall and lead times as a result of that have come in quite nicely in those 3 end markets. Obviously, being more than offset by strength in the other much larger segments that we serve, but in those 3 short-cycle pieces of the business, we have clearly seen lead times come in. We've seen orders moderate in those 3 end markets.

是的。我們當然沒有看到整個業務有任何去庫存的情況，但事實上，就您的觀點而言，圍繞短週期業務，無論是 Resi 還是 OEM 渠道或分佈式 IT 中發生的情況，這些將是我們認為的 3 個較短週期市場。顯然，總體訂單和交貨時間都在放緩，因此這三個終端市場的表現相當不錯。顯然，這被我們服務的其他更大細分市場的實力所抵消，但在這 3 個短週期業務領域，我們清楚地看到交貨時間的縮短。我們看到這 3 個終端市場的訂單有所放緩。

The next question is from the line of Chris Snyder from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的克里斯·斯奈德 (Chris Snyder)。

And I want to follow up on Josh's question, specifically around the Inflation Reduction Act. It sounds like not much orders yet on the back of the IRA. Is it reasonable to think that orders there could start coming through in 2024? And when we look across all the company's various business lines, which ones do you think will benefit most from the IRA specifically?

我想跟進喬希的問題，特別是關於《通貨膨脹削減法案》的問題。聽起來愛爾蘭共和軍的命令還沒有多少。那裡的訂單可能會在 2024 年開始交付，這樣的想法是否合理？當我們縱觀公司的各個業務線時，您認為哪些業務線將從 IRA 中受益最多？

Yes, I do think in terms of the timing, for sure, as we think about 2024, we would expect to start to see those projects be clarified, negotiations and some orders begin to show up in 2024. Maybe some early shipments at the best case at the end of the year but as you know, these projects tend to be much longer term. And a lot of these dollars are going to support mega projects and mega projects, just by definition, tend to be much longer cycle than the typical stock and flow business that we have. And so we would expect to start to see that begin to show up next year.

是的，我確實認為就時間安排而言，當我們考慮 2024 年時，我們預計會開始看到這些項目得到澄清、談判和一些訂單開始出現在 2024 年。也許最好是提前發貨年底的情況，但如您所知，這些項目往往是長期的。其中大量資金將用於支持大型項目，而根據定義，大型項目的周期往往比我們擁有的典型存量和流量業務要長得多。因此，我們預計明年就會開始出現這種情況。

Now your point on which companies would benefit the most, I'm not sure -- I mean clearly...

現在你關於哪些公司將受益最多的觀點，我不確定——我的意思很明確......

Sorry, which verticals within -- sorry, which verticals within the company. I apologize.

抱歉，是公司內部的哪些垂直領域——抱歉，是公司內部的哪些垂直領域。我道歉。

I'm sorry?

對不起？

Sorry, which vertical within the company?

抱歉，請問公司屬於哪個垂直領域？

Yes. I'd say clearly, as we think about the various verticals and we kind of laid that out in our presentation on Slide 4, and this was -- appreciate your commentary because what we've really tried to do on Slide 4 in our PowerPoint is to give you a sense for the key mega trends and how they impact the various verticals that we participate in.

是的。我想說得很清楚，當我們考慮各種垂直領域時，我們在幻燈片 4 的演示中對此進行了闡述，這就是——感謝您的評論，因為我們在 PowerPoint 中真正嘗試在幻燈片 4 上做的事情是讓您了解主要的大趨勢以及它們如何影響我們參與的各個垂直領域。

So if you look at infrastructure spending, the great news for us is that it is very broad, plays across the board and impacts most of our segments but I'd say it certainly will show up most materially, I'd say, in the Industrial segment. If you think about what's going on today in the investments in new EV factories and battery factories, what's going on in the chemical space, a lot of it will show up in what we call industrial facilities. But it really does cut across pretty broadly in most of the end markets in which we participate.

因此，如果你看看基礎設施支出，對我們來說好消息是，它非常廣泛，全面發揮作用，影響我們的大多數細分市場，但我想說，它肯定會在最實質性的方面表現出來。工業部分。如果你想想今天新電動汽車工廠和電池工廠的投資情況，以及化學領域的情況，其中很多都會出現在我們所說的工業設施中。但它確實在我們參與的大多數終端市場中具有相當廣泛的影響。

No, absolutely. I very much appreciate that. Then maybe following up on that industrial comment. Everyone, I think, has kind of seen the massive manufacturing starts that's now leading to higher activity put in place. How should we think about the lag in which that flows to your business from the start to when it starts generating revenue for Eaton? You guys have said these are very long cycle projects. Just wondering kind of how long kind of single facility kind of generate revenue for you.

不，絕對是。我非常欣賞這一點。然後也許會跟進該行業評論。我想，每個人都已經看到大規模的製造業開工，現在正在導致更多的活動到位。我們應該如何考慮從業務開始到開始為伊頓創收之間的滯後時間？你們說過這些是周期非常長的項目。只是想知道單一設施可以為您帶來收入多長時間。

Yes. No, I appreciate that question. As you can imagine, as we've seen the significant transition to these mega projects, we spent a fair amount of time internally trying to answer the same question. From an announcement to a negotiation, a negotiation to an order and an order to a shipment. And it varies widely depending upon the type of project you're referring to. And I'd say it could be as short as 6 months, it could be as long as 3 years. And when you think about a lot of these mega projects, they do tend to be longer in nature. So they would tend to be on the longer end of that cycle just by virtue of the size of these projects.

是的。不，我很欣賞這個問題。正如您可以想像的那樣，正如我們看到向這些大型項目的重大轉變一樣，我們在內部花了相當多的時間試圖回答同樣的問題。從公告到談判，談判到訂單，訂單到發貨。根據您所指的項目類型，它會有很大差異。我想說，短則6個月，長則3年。當你想到許多這樣的大型項目時，你會發現它們本質上確實往往更長。因此，僅僅憑藉這些項目的規模，他們往往會處於該週期的較長一端。

And I think the exciting thing about it, as we said in the prepared remarks, we see each quarter like $100 billion coming in, and then it is going to give us a nice cadence going forward for quite some time. And just to come back to the Inflation Reduction Act, I mean, we put that particular act in for illustrative purposes, but just to draw your attention, we've also got the Infrastructure Act, the Chips Act and in Europe, the EU recovery plan. So when you put all this together, there's just a ton of government stimulus supporting key parts of our business.

我認為令人興奮的是，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，我們看到每個季度都會有 1000 億美元的收入，然後這將為我們在未來相當長的一段時間內提供良好的節奏。回到《減少通貨膨脹法案》，我的意思是，我們將這一特定法案用於說明目的，但只是為了引起您的注意，我們還有《基礎設施法案》、《芯片法案》以及在歐洲的《歐盟復甦》計劃。因此，當你把所有這些放在一起時，就會發現政府有大量的刺激措施支持我們業務的關鍵部分。

Our next question is from Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

Maybe just on free cash flow. I noticed you guys raised the EPS guidance by a pretty considerable amount but free cash flow remain consistent. Can you just talk about the drivers of that? And I'm sure part of that has to do with your working capital plans for the second half.

也許只是自由現金流。我注意到你們將每股收益指導提高了相當大的數額，但自由現金流保持一致。您能談談其驅動因素嗎？我確信這部分與你們下半年的營運資金計劃有關。

Yes. That's a great question, Nicole. We were up almost $800 million the majority of that around, let's call it, $550 million was with working capital optimization and $250 million was from earnings. We debated, do we take up the guidance on free cash flow. And we thought because it kind of fits within the range right now, we'd give it another quarter. We're happy the way it's going. Obviously, up 600% is something to be happy about. We've improved cash conversion cycle by 9 days. That said, we still have a lot of work to do, and we want to get our free cash flow margin up even higher.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，妮可。我們增加了近 8 億美元，其中大部分（我們稱之為），5.5 億美元來自營運資本優化，2.5 億美元來自收益。我們爭論過，我們是否接受自由現金流的指導。我們認為，因為它現在有點適合這個範圍，所以我們會再給它一個季度。我們很高興事情進展順利。顯然，上漲600%是值得高興的事情。我們將現金周轉週期縮短了 9 天。也就是說，我們還有很多工作要做，我們希望將自由現金流利潤率提高得更高。

And I'll just add, as we grow as well, we're obviously putting more cash into receivable. And so it's -- we're all having to fund as well the increased working capital as a result of the higher growth.

我想補充一點，隨著我們的發展，我們顯然正在將更多現金投入到應收賬款中。因此，我們都必須為高速增長帶來的營運資金增加提供資金。

Got it. Makes sense. And then on the non-resi vertical, obviously, like ongoing questions about the strength there. Are there any patches within the whole non-resi complex where you guys are seeing any signs of slowing activity?

知道了。說得通。然後在非抵抗垂直領域，顯然，就像關於那裡的強度的持續問題。在整個非抗性複合體中，你們是否看到任何活動放緩跡象的補丁？

Yes. No, I appreciate the question. And once again, if you just think about it in the context of the end market segments that we've laid out on Slide 4, I mean, most of what we do is non-resi. And in the context of your question specifically, as we mentioned, we have seen a slowdown in what we call distributed IT. And we have seen a little bit of a slowdown in what we call the MOEM segment of the market as well. Fortunately, for us, those are -- those tend to be smaller segments of the market and the growth in the other verticals is clearly more than offsetting that weakness. But yes, we have seen a little bit of a slowdown in those other 2 verticals as well.

是的。不，我很欣賞這個問題。再說一次，如果你只是在我們在幻燈片 4 上列出的終端細分市場的背景下考慮一下，我的意思是，我們所做的大部分工作都是非再生性的。正如我們所提到的，就您的問題而言，我們已經看到所謂的分佈式 IT 正在放緩。我們也看到 MOEM 市場領域也出現了一些放緩。幸運的是，對我們來說，這些往往是市場中較小的部分，而其他垂直領域的增長顯然足以抵消這一弱點。但是，是的，我們也看到其他兩個垂直領域也出現了一些放緩。

That said, if you look at the first half of the year organic growth, I mean, we're up in every single end market. Some of them obviously significant more than others -- including resi.

也就是說，如果你看看今年上半年的有機增長，我的意思是，我們在每個終端市場都在增長。其中一些顯然比其他的更重要——包括雷西。

And including resi, which we took our numbers. If you recall from the prior quarter in the call, we actually took our outlook for the year up in resi, where we originally thought that that market would have been down, and we took the market up to the point where resi is doing much better than, quite frankly, we anticipated as we began the year. Absolutely

包括我們獲取的數據。如果您還記得上一季度的電話會議，我們實際上將今年的展望上調了 Resi，我們最初認為該市場會下跌，但我們將市場上升到 Resi 表現更好的程度坦率地說，這比我們年初時的預期要高。絕對地

And MOEM is also up first half of the year.

上半年MOEM也有所增長。

The next question is from David Raso from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

I apologize if I missed this earlier. The Electrical Americas, the organic growth, right? The first quarter '22, '19, back half of the year, we're looking for about 10.5 as per the guide. What percent of that growth has been pricing, like, say, or even the assumption for the second half, whatever you're willing to discuss? And then just a sense of the pricing that's in the backlog? I'm just trying to get a sense of, obviously, the backlog is a little bit more the megatrend than the smaller, shorter cycle projects and businesses. So I'm just trying to get a sense of that pricing dynamic relative to the overall organic sales growth.

如果我之前錯過了這一點，我深表歉意。美洲電氣，有機增長，對嗎？根據指南，22 年、19 年第一季度、下半年，我們預計約為 10.5。無論您願意討論什麼，增長的百分比是多少，例如下半年的假設？然後只是了解積壓訂單中的定價？我只是想了解一下，顯然，與規模較小、週期較短的項目和業務相比，積壓工作更像是大趨勢。因此，我只是想了解相對於整體有機銷售增長的定價動態。

Yes, I appreciate the question, Dave. And I'd say that one of the reasons why we are forecasting a slowdown in growth between the first half and the second half is really the strong comparables. If you look at the back half of the year, we were up some 19% and a lot of that, quite frankly, was price, and we're getting a lot less contributions for price in the back half of this year. When you take a look at it actually on a 2-year stack, the growth essentially is -- essentially the same. It's about 30% versus 2021, essentially normalizing for the really strong back half, a lot of which was priced.

是的，我很欣賞這個問題，戴夫。我想說，我們預測上半年和下半年增長放緩的原因之一實際上是強勁的可比性。如果你看看今年下半年，我們上漲了約 19%，坦率地說，其中很大一部分是價格，而今年下半年我們獲得的價格貢獻要少得多。當你實際觀察兩年的堆棧時，你會發現增長本質上是相同的。與 2021 年相比，這一數字約為 30%，基本上是真正強勁的後半段的正常化，其中很多都是定價的。

In terms of price in the backlog, I would say that as you will likely recall, one of the things that we did was we actually repriced our backlog and much of it. And so if you think about the underlying performance today, what you're seeing in the Electrical Americas business, and we're shipping a lot of that out of backlog because the backlog is so long is -- it's essentially we don't expect backlog to have a material impact on the underlying performance of the business as we ship it.

就積壓訂單的價格而言，我想說，您可能還記得，我們​​所做的一件事是我們實際上重新定價了積壓訂單及其大部分。因此，如果你考慮一下今天的基本表現，你在電氣美洲業務中看到的情況，我們正在從積壓中運送大量產品，因為積壓太長了——這基本上是我們不期望的積壓對我們發貨時的業務基本績效產生重大影響。

I guess trying to maybe get a little more detail on that. The back half of the year or if you want to even discuss 2Q, what are volumes in the guide for the back half of the year? And then just trying to think about essentially supply chains improving. Obviously, some of these demand drivers shouldn't fade away that quickly versus some of the shorter cycle businesses that are turning down. I'm just trying to balance volume and price exiting the year.

我想也許會嘗試了解更多細節。下半年，或者如果您想討論第二季度，下半年指南中的捲是多少？然後試著思考供應鏈的本質改善。顯然，與一些正在衰退的周期較短的業務相比，其中一些需求驅動因素不應該那麼快消失。我只是想平衡今年的銷量和價格。

Sure. Sure. I know you're really trying to get at the split between price and volume that we've told you before on these calls, we're not going to provide it. And so what I would just tell you is that we are getting much greater contributions from volume than we are from price in the second half of the year.

當然。當然。我知道您確實想了解價格和數量之間的區別，我們之前在這些電話會議上已經告訴過您，但我們不會提供它。所以我想告訴你的是，今年下半年我們從銷量中獲得的貢獻比從價格中獲得的貢獻要大得多。

Yes. I mean keep in the context of the prepared remarks, we've raised organic growth in Electrical Americas 600 basis points since the original guide. And our fiscal year guide is 15%, which is fairly sporty. Obviously, we can all do the math on the implied for the back half. But I think overall, when you step back and look at it, pretty aggressive.

是的。我的意思是，在準備好的評論中，自最初的指南以來，我們已將 Electrical Americas 的有機增長提高了 600 個基點。我們的財年指導值為 15%，這是相當運動的。顯然，我們都可以對後半部分的暗示進行數學計算。但我認為總的來說，當你退後一步看時，你會發現它相當具有侵略性。

And volumes are growing. I love to think we could get 15% price, but we can't.

而且數量正在增長。我喜歡認為我們可以獲得 15% 的價格，但我們不能。

The next question is from Julian Mitchell from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

I just wanted to start with the Electrical Global business. You mentioned some of the very strong markets and maybe some of those that are a little bit weaker. How long are you expecting that weakness to last? And when we look at the profitability in Electrical Global, you've got that nice sort of margin turnaround in the back half which I think is driving an acceleration in year-on-year profit growth to sort of close to double-digit levels in the second half. Maybe just help us understand the main drivers of that pickup.

我只是想從 Electrical Global 業務開始。您提到了一些非常強勁的市場，也可能提到了一些稍微疲軟的市場。您預計這種疲軟狀態會持續多久？當我們觀察 Electrical Global 的盈利能力時，下半年的利潤率出現了不錯的轉變，我認為這正在推動同比利潤增長加速，達到接近兩位數的水平。下半場。也許只是幫助我們了解該皮卡的主要驅動因素。

I appreciate the question, Julian. And I would say that on a relative basis, certainly, Electrical Global is not growing at the same rate as we're growing in the Americas. But I wouldn't call those markets weak. I would still say that those markets are seeing pretty attractive growth.

我很欣賞這個問題，朱利安。我想說，相對而言，全球電氣公司的增長速度當然不如我們在美洲的增長速度。但我不會稱這些市場疲弱。我仍然想說這些市場正在看到相當有吸引力的增長。

With respect to the first half versus the second half, as we mentioned to you in some of the upfront commentary and Tom, we did have a particular mix challenge in our Electrical Europe business in Q2. And so those margins were held back due to some very specific mix-related issues in that business. And based upon the visibility that we have into the second half, we do believe that they do not repeat, and the business gets back to a more normal level of profitability in the second half of the year. We have pretty high confidence that that's going to take place.

關於上半年與下半年，正如我們在一些前期評論中和湯姆提到的那樣，我們在第二季度的歐洲電氣業務中確實遇到了特殊的混合挑戰。因此，由於該業務中一些非常具體的與組合相關的問題，這些利潤受到了抑制。根據我們對下半年的了解，我們確實相信它們不會重演，並且業務將在下半年恢復到更正常的盈利水平。我們對這將會發生非常有信心。

Yes. A couple of other areas that we're counting on in addition to mix in the back half is higher volume and being better in terms of our productivity in terms of manufacturing.

是的。除了後半部分的混合之外，我們還依賴其他幾個領域，即更高的產量以及更好的製造生產力。

That's really helpful. And then I'm not sure you'll sort of hazard a guess at this, but I just thought I'd check because it was in focus at one of your electrical peers this morning. But when you think about your backlog to revenue coverage, total company, it's gone from sort of 20% towards 50-plus percent in the last 3 years at Eaton. Some of your peers who also have good sort of megatrend exposure, they're talking about that backlog normalizing maybe to 30% of sales. I'm not asking you to put a fine point on your view of that for Eaton but maybe just a sense of the pace at which that backlog to sales may normalize? Because I guess the experience of a lot of other companies is once the backlog peaks, it doesn't seem to stay there very long. It sort of starts to move down as customers normalize lead times.

這真的很有幫助。然後我不確定你是否會冒險猜測這一點，但我只是想我應該檢查一下，因為今天早上它是你的一位電氣同行的焦點。但當你考慮一下積壓訂單占公司總收入的比例時，你會發現，在過去 3 年裡，伊頓公司的積壓比例已從 20% 上升到 50% 以上。您的一些同行也對大趨勢有很好的了解，他們正在談論積壓訂單可能會正常化到銷售額的 30%。我並不是要求您對伊頓的這一點提出明確的觀點，但也許只是想了解銷售積壓可能正常化的速度？因為我猜很多其他公司的經驗是，一旦積壓達到峰值，它似乎不會在那裡停留很長時間。隨著客戶的交貨時間正常化，它開始下降。

I appreciate the question, Julian. And in many ways, we're talking about the unknowable, right, given in terms of the uncertainty around what the future looks like. I would say though, if you think about Eaton's business, and that's why we thought it was so important you go back to Slide 4 in our PowerPoint presentation to talk about the breadth of our portfolio and how it's impacted by these various megatrends. And I would tell you that we aren't the same as other electrical companies, and some of them are exposed to some but not others. And I would just say what makes Eaton unique here is really the breadth of our portfolio and the end markets that we serve and how each of these markets are benefiting from these megatrends. And so I'm not sure what particular electrical peer you're referring to, but I would say that we would likely have much broader exposure to a number of these trends than other electrical companies.

我很欣賞這個問題，朱利安。從很多方面來說，我們談論的是不可知的事情，對吧，考慮到未來的不確定性。不過，我想說的是，如果您考慮伊頓的業務，這就是為什麼我們認為如此重要的原因，請返回 PowerPoint 演示文稿中的幻燈片 4，討論我們產品組合的廣度以及它如何受到這些不同大趨勢的影響。我想告訴你，我們和其他電力公司不一樣，有些公司會接觸到一些人，但不會接觸到其他人。我只想說，伊頓的獨特之處在於我們產品組合的廣度和我們服務的終端市場，以及每個市場如何從這些大趨勢中受益。因此，我不確定您指的是哪個特定的電氣同行，但我想說，我們可能比其他電氣公司更廣泛地接觸到這些趨勢。

Yes. And I mean, just to add to that, I think we had it included in the prepared remarks, but I think it bears repeating. Our backlog in the quarter is up 220% since the end of '19. And with all the mega projects, the stimulus spend, the secular trends that Craig just mentioned, we don't have a lot of discussion about the backlog going down.

是的。我的意思是，補充一點，我認為我們已將其包含在準備好的評論中，但我認為值得重複。自 19 年底以來，我們本季度的積壓訂單增加了 220%。對於所有大型項目、刺激支出、克雷格剛才提到的長期趨勢，我們沒有太多關於積壓下降的討論。

And if you think -- I mean are there certain electrical companies, for example, who would play heavily inside of factories, who maybe don't play on the infrastructure side. We are a massive infrastructure player. And so I just want to just point that out in terms of as you think about Eaton versus other companies, you can't really necessarily draw a straight-line correlation between us and them. We obviously have seen our peers announced and there's a very difference in growth in a number of the peers this quarter too, a function of the fact that we play in very different end markets than some of our other electrical peers.

如果你認為——我的意思是，例如，是否有某些電力公司會在工廠內部發揮重要作用，而他們可能不會在基礎設施方面發揮作用。我們是一個大型基礎設施參與者。因此，我只想指出，當您考慮伊頓與其他公司時，您實際上不一定能在我們和他們之間得出直線相關性。顯然，我們已經看到我們的同行宣布了這一消息，並且本季度許多同行的增長也存在很大差異，這是因為我們與其他一些電氣同行所處的終端市場截然不同。

We also have that nice mix of going through the channel as well as these big mega projects with direct to the customer. So we've got this nice balance as well in that area.

我們還通過渠道以及直接面向客戶的大型項目進行了很好的組合。所以我們在該領域也取得了很好的平衡。

And in the point that Tom is picking up on that, I think is really an important one is this notion around if you take a look at what's happening with the number of our distributors, oftentimes, you want to draw a straight line between what you're seeing in the distribution channel to what we're experiencing in our own business. And to Tom's point, these big mega projects that we're talking about, a lot of the big infrastructure-related investments, these are direct projects that are not flowing through distribution. So you also will see perhaps a decoupling between how we could perform versus some of the electrical distributors as well.

就湯姆正在指出的這一點而言，我認為這一概念確實很重要，如果你看看我們的分銷商數量發生了什麼，通常，你想在你的經銷商之間畫一條直線。我們在分銷渠道中看到了我們在自己的業務中所經歷的情況。就湯姆的觀點而言，我們正在談論的這些大型項目，許多與基礎設施相關的大型投資，這些都是直接項目，不經過分銷。因此，您可能還會看到我們的表現與某些電氣分銷商之間的脫鉤。

The next question is from the line of Steve Volkmann from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Steve Volkmann。

Great. I wanted to actually switch to Aerospace, if I could. I appreciate your comments there. I know, right? I appreciate your comments there on sort of the medium-term outlook, looks very robust. I'm curious how you think the real ramp that you outlined in OE will impact margin mix over the next sort of 3 to 5 years?

偉大的。如果可以的話，我想真正轉向航空航天。我很欣賞你的評論。我知道，對吧？我很欣賞你對中期前景的評論，看起來非常強勁。我很好奇您認為您在 OE 中概述的實際增長將如何影響未來 3 到 5 年的利潤率組合？

I appreciate the question and what you're kind of poking at a little bit understandably is the fact that OE margins tend to be well below aftermarket margins. But the good news here is we're finding that both OE and aftermarket, which is really tied to revenue passenger kilometers or revenue passenger miles, both of those pieces of the business are essentially ramping. And if you heard what we reported in our numbers, we actually saw even more growth in aftermarket in the quarter than we did on the OE side. And so we don't anticipate a negative mix impact from this ramp on the OE side as we look out to the forecast for the next number of years.

我很欣賞這個問題，您所關心的問題是原廠利潤率往往遠低於售後市場利潤這一事實，這是可以理解的。但好消息是，我們發現原廠設備和售後市場（實際上與收入乘客公里數或收入乘客英里數相關）這兩項業務基本上都在增長。如果您聽過我們在數據中報告的內容，您會發現本季度售後市場的增長實際上比原廠方面的增長還要多。因此，在我們展望未來幾年的預測時，我們預計這種增長不會對 OE 方面產生負面的混合影響。

But to your point, it is certainly something to watch if you ever get in any way inverted there and OE is growing in aftermarket, it isn't, it would certainly have a negative impact on margins, but that's not our anticipation.

但就您而言，如果您以任何方式倒轉，並且 OE 在售後市場上正在增長，那麼這肯定是值得關注的事情，但事實並非如此，它肯定會對利潤率產生負面影響，但這不是我們的預期。

Yes. And just to remind you, with a couple of numbers here, trailing 12 months or rolling 12 month is in the aftermarket is 25%, and that's really 25% on both defense and commercial.

是的。只是提醒您，這裡有幾個數字，售後市場中的跟踪 12 個月或滾動 12 個月是 25%，這實際上是國防和商業領域的 25%。

And OE and aftermarket, which is really the important point.

還有原廠設備和售後市場，這才是真正重要的一點。

Great. That's super helpful. And then just one quick longer-term question, Craig. I mean, given all these trends across all your businesses, we're obviously going to have a period of very strong growth here. And I just don't think we've compounded at these types of levels over multiple years in the past. So how do you think about capacity here because the rates of growth seem like they're really kind of inflecting for a longer term?

偉大的。這非常有幫助。然後是一個快速的長期問題，克雷格。我的意思是，鑑於您所有業務的所有這些趨勢，我們顯然將在這裡經歷一段非常強勁的增長時期。我只是認為我們在過去的幾年裡並沒有達到這些類型的水平。那麼，您如何看待這裡的產能，因為增長率似乎確實在長期內發生了變化？

No. First of all, you're absolutely right. This is a very different electrical industry, a very different Eaton than the one that perhaps your grandfather and grandmothers knew. But -- and so as a result of that, we are making fairly sizable investments in capital equipment. We talked about it in the last earnings call, some of the big investments that we're making in the utility space. And I mentioned in my outline commentary, we made investments in transformer capacity, voltage regulators and line insulation products. These are essentially capital investments that are ongoing right now. We've made some fairly sizable investments in our circuit breaker capacity over the last couple of years. And so we are having to invest more in capital equipment.

不，首先，你是完全正確的。這是一個非常不同的電氣行業，一個與您的祖父和祖母所知道的完全不同的伊頓。但是 - 因此，我們正在對資本設備進行相當大的投資。我們在上次財報電話會議上討論了我們在公用事業領域進行的一些重大投資。我在評論大綱中提到，我們在變壓器容量、電壓調節器和線路絕緣產品方面進行了投資。這些本質上是目前正在進行的資本投資。過去幾年，我們對斷路器容量進行了相當大的投資。因此，我們必須在資本設備上進行更多投資。

But I would say even in the big scheme of things, the level of investment is maybe going to tick up 0.5% more of sales, maybe another percent of sales, but very well manageable in the context of the overall growth of the company.

但我想說，即使在大計劃中，投資水平也可能會使銷售額增加 0.5%，甚至銷售額的另一個百分點，但在公司整體增長的背景下是可以很好管理的。

Yes. The important thing is the focus is really there. We're just recently with our board and our strategy session, and a big part of that was the capacity related to meeting this hyper growth. So we're very hungry. There's a lot of food on the table. We're very hungry.

是的。重要的是焦點確實在那裡。我們最近剛剛召開了董事會和戰略會議，其中很大一部分是與滿足這種高速增長相關的能力。所以我們非常餓。桌子上有很多食物。我們很餓。

The next question is from Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

So we've covered a lot of ground. So back to Electrical. You mentioned, I think, Craig, retrofit activity, which I think was in relation to C&I end markets in particular. And I know you talked about this in the past, increasing load content, and I think it was in relation to charging specifically. But maybe just talk about what activity you're seeing within retrofits and how you think that develops over the next couple of years?

所以我們已經涵蓋了很多內容。回到電氣。克雷格，我想你提到了改造活動，我認為這尤其與工商業終端市場有關。我知道您過去談到過增加負載內容，我認為這與具體的充電有關。但也許只是談談您在改造中看到的活動以及您認為未來幾年的發展情況？

Yes. No, certainly appreciate the question. And we do -- if you think about today, why we are feeling incrementally more positive around what's happening today in commercial and institutional. And a bit of this is simply what we're all experiencing around the growth in electrification, the growth in EV charging infrastructure and the investments that are being put in to support the growth and the demand for electricity on the grid. And so in terms of quantifying the impact of that versus the impact of the new build, like I say, we're not -- we're probably today not smart enough to do that with the needed degree of precision. I can tell you that it is an important piece of what we're seeing in terms of growth. It will contribute to growth.

是的。不，當然很欣賞這個問題。我們確實如此——如果你想想今天，為什麼我們對今天商業和機構領域發生的事情感到越來越積極。其中一部分就是我們在電氣化的增長、電動汽車充電基礎設施的增長以及為支持電網電力增長和需求而進行的投資方面所經歷的一切。因此，就量化其影響與新構建的影響而言，就像我說的那樣，我們今天可能不夠聰明，無法以所需的精確度做到這一點。我可以告訴你，這是我們所看到的增長的重要組成部分。它將有助於增長。

How do you quantify the impact of retrofits versus the new build stuff? We're trying to work through some of those questions and answers. But things are moving so quickly right now that, quite frankly, we haven't had a chance to really put pen to paper and really try to figure it out. But we are going to see, to your point, we're going to see it in both new buildings and we're going to see a lot of retrofits and modifications, whether it's in a home to put an electrical infrastructure, in residential, and whether it's in commercial buildings or offices to support EV charging, to support the addition of solar, the additions of battery storage, all of these investments that are being made to improve your electrical capacity resiliency, a lot of that will go into existing buildings.

您如何量化改造與新建內容的影響？我們正在努力解決其中一些問題和答案。但現在事情發展得如此之快，坦率地說，我們還沒有機會真正動筆並真正嘗試找出答案。但就你的觀點而言，我們將在新建築中看到它，我們將看到大量的改造和修改，無論是在住宅中安裝電力基礎設施，還是在住宅中，無論是在商業建築還是辦公室中，支持電動汽車充電、支持增加太陽能、增加電池存儲，所有這些投資都是為了提高電力容量彈性，其中很大一部分將投入現有建築。

But we need to be a little smarter on this topic and get you a little better answer than that. But certainly an important one for us, but one we're still trying to quantify.

但我們需要在這個話題上更聰明一點，並為您提供更好的答案。但這對我們來說無疑是重要的，但我們仍在嘗試量化。

No, I agree. And then on data centers, I just want to take the other side of the -- of sort of the -- are you seeing any signs of weakness? Doesn't look like it, but are there any signs of weakness out there? I'm thinking maybe China perhaps might be a bit softer. And then when you think about generative AI and GPU racks, does this increase the revenue per megawatts? Or does this just increased the total megawatts in the market? Any thoughts there would be helpful.

不，我同意。然後在數據中心方面，我只想談談另一面——你是否看到任何疲軟的跡象？看起來不像，但是有沒有任何弱點的跡象？我想也許中國可能會更軟一些。然後，當您考慮生成式 AI 和 GPU 機架時，這是否會增加每兆瓦的收入？或者這只是增加了市場上的總兆瓦數？任何想法都會有幫助。

Yes. I mean, to your first question, are we seeing any signs of weakness, I would say, not really. I mean, whether geographically or whether it's not just either the hyperscalers, we're seeing at co-lo, we're seeing on-prem. We're seeing it around the world. Globally, we're seeing strength in the data center market.

是的。我的意思是，對於你的第一個問題，我們是否看到任何疲軟的跡象，我想說，沒有。我的意思是，無論是在地理位置上，還是不僅僅是超大規模企業，我們在託管和本地都看到了這種情況。我們在世界各地都看到了這種情況。在全球範圍內，我們看到數據中心市場的強勁勢頭。

And then to the point around -- once again, you get back to this important question around AI's impact on data centers and the way they're going to be configured. Certainly, we understand that they're going to need more power. The power density, these racks is going to go up. But we still don't know. I think it's early days, and it's one that we know we owe you an answer. We know we owe ourselves an answer on that one as well as we continue to talk to some of the big data center providers around how they're going to be configuring these data centers and how they're going to change. But to say, we're still in the early innings, and we don't yet have all the answers to how they're going to be reconfigured.

然後回到正題——再次回到這個關於人工智能對數據中心的影響及其配置方式的重要問題。當然，我們知道他們將需要更多的電力。這些機架的功率密度將會上升。但我們仍然不知道。我認為現在還為時過早，我們知道我們欠您一個答案。我們知道我們應該在這個問題上得到一個答案，並且我們將繼續與一些大數據中心提供商討論他們將如何配置這些數據中心以及它們將如何改變。但要說的是，我們仍處於早期階段，我們還沒有得到關於如何重新配置​​它們的所有答案。

Yes. And just a little bit more on Craig's point in your question on slowing. Each part of the world for the first half of the year, data centers, including hyperscale, grew double digit. It's just a matter of whether it grew mid-double digits or in the 20s or in the 30s. We're seeing robust growth across the board.

是的。關於克雷格在您關於放慢速度的問題中的觀點，請再多說一點。今年上半年，世界各地的數據中心（包括超大規模數據中心）都實現了兩位數增長。問題只在於它是在兩位數中段增長，還是在 20 年代或 30 年代增長。我們看到全面的強勁增長。

And the next question is from Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

When you said greater contributions from volume and price in the second half of the year, what exactly did you mean by that? Did you mean that you just expect the skew to be more towards volume in the second half versus the first half? Or maybe just a little bit more color on what you meant by that?

您說下半年量價貢獻較大，具體指的是什麼？您的意思是您只是預計下半年與上半年相比會更偏向成交量嗎？或者也許只是稍微解釋一下你的意思？

Yes, that's primarily what we're referring to, Steve, because if you think about most of the big price increases that we put through in our business, most of those showed up in the second half of last year. We got some modest price increases this year, but most of the big price increases that we got, we got in the second half of last year. So they're really baked into the comparable for 2020 -- 2022, and we're anniversary-ing those big increases right now. And so just on the relative contribution to growth, on a relative basis, we're going to giving it more from volume than we offer price in the second half of the year.

是的，這就是我們主要指的，史蒂夫，因為如果你考慮一下我們在業務中經歷的大部分大幅提價，其中大部分出現在去年下半年。今年我們的價格略有上漲，但大部分大幅價格上漲是在去年下半年發生的。因此，它們確實已納入 2020 年至 2022 年的可比數據中，我們現在正在慶祝這些大幅增長。因此，僅就對增長的相對貢獻而言，在相對的基礎上，我們將在今年下半年從銷量中獲得比我們提供的價格更多的收益。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just on the Electrical Americas business. I mean, should we think about this margin you're doing, especially here in the second quarter here? I mean is that like -- I know you have it going down sequentially in the second half, I guess, a little bit. Is that the jumping off point for next year? How sustainable is that? And any moving parts there that you want to call out as we tinker with our models for next year?

好的。這很有幫助。然後是美洲電氣業務。我的意思是，我們是否應該考慮一下您正在做的利潤，尤其是在第二季度？我的意思是——我知道你在下半場的表現會依次下降，我猜，有一點點。這是明年的起點嗎？這有多可持續？當我們修改明年的模型時，您想指出哪些活動部件？

Yes, I'd say that our team continues to execute well. We certainly had a little bit of perhaps favorable mix in Q2, and maybe that's what you're seeing in terms of the relative change between Q2 and in the back half of the year. But there's nothing -- there's no unusual in those numbers. That's just straight operating performance execution by our team. And yes, the simple answer is, yes, that should be the jumping off point as we think about what this business should look like into 2024 and beyond.

是的，我想說我們的團隊繼續表現良好。我們在第二季度當然有一些可能有利的組合，也許這就是您在第二季度和今年下半年之間的相對變化方面看到的。但沒有什麼——這些數字並沒有什麼異常。這只是我們團隊的直接運營績效執行。是的，簡單的答案是，是的，這應該是我們思考 2024 年及以後這個業務應該是什麼樣子的起點。

And obviously, we're going to have volume growth and so the business is performing well, and we'd expect it to continue to perform well.

顯然，我們的銷量將會增長，因此業務表現良好，我們預計它將繼續表現良好。

Yes. And Steve, I would just add, we know what the implied say for the segment margins, we're hoping we do better than the implied.

是的。史蒂夫，我想補充一點，我們知道細分市場利潤率的隱含含義，我們希望我們做得比隱含的更好。

Right. But is that the jumping off point for next year? Like is that a sustainable number that you can improve on next year?

正確的。但這是明年的起點嗎？這個數字是否是一個可持續的數字，您明年可以改進嗎？

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

The next question is from Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的迪恩·德雷 (Deane Dray)。

Covered a lot of ground, but I did hear a couple of references to unknowables and a choppy macro. So it kind of begs the question about the initial assumption for this year so long ago, it seems for a mild recession. Is -- any clarity in terms of your assumption there? Or is that everything seems to be skewing much higher?

涵蓋了很多內容，但我確實聽到了一些關於不可知因素和不穩定的宏觀的提及。因此，這有點讓人質疑很久以前對今年的初步假設，似乎是溫和的衰退。您的假設是否清晰？或者一切似乎都變得更高了？

Yes. No. I mean I think to your point, Deane, we, like so many others had anticipated a mild recession this year and our thinking around recession continues to be pushed out as it does for, I think, most of the economists in the world. And so at this juncture, I mean, we're feeling pretty good about the year. It's one of the reasons why we're taking up our guidance. And I think the bigger message becomes in the event of a mild recession, very much consistent with what we said originally, even in the event of a mild recession, given the mega trends and the stimulus spending and the strength of our end markets, we don't believe it's going to have a material impact at all on Eaton's growth. That's what we said at the beginning of the year, and that's what we continue to believe.

是的。不。我的意思是，我認為就你的觀點而言，迪恩，我們和許多其他人一樣預計今年會出現溫和的衰退，而且我們對衰退的思考繼續被推遲，我認為世界上大多數經濟學家都是如此。 。所以在這個時刻，我的意思是，我們對今年的感覺非常好。這是我們接受指導的原因之一。我認為，如果發生溫和衰退，更大的信息就會變得更加一致，這與我們最初所說的非常一致，即使發生溫和衰退，考慮到大趨勢、刺激支出以及我們終端市場的實力，我們我認為這不會對伊頓的增長產生任何實質性影響。這是我們在年初所說的，也是我們繼續相信的。

Yes. And Deane, I'll take you back to an earlier response. We've modeled even with downturns in order intake. If you use that for a proxy in terms of a mild recession, we are very confident that we can power through that given our backlog in the megatrend.

是的。 Deane，我將帶您回到之前的回复。我們甚至在訂單量下降的情況下也進行了建模。如果你用它作為溫和衰退的指標，考慮到我們在大趨勢中的積壓，我們非常有信心能夠度過這一難關。

Yes. That seems clear. And then just a very quick follow-up on Steve Volkmann's question about capacity. When we were all together in New York a while back, we talked about shortages of smart switch gear and transformers. Is that in any way holding back the utility demand at least that how much you'll be able to supply? And how does that change?

是的。這似乎很清楚。然後是對 Steve Volkmann 關於容量的問題的快速跟進。不久前，當我們齊聚紐約時，我們討論了智能開關設備和變壓器的短缺問題。這是否會以某種方式抑制公用事業需求，至少限制您能夠供應的量？那麼這會如何改變呢？

Yes. No, I'd say as an industry, things are better. And I'd say we are -- the industry and some of the supply chain choke points are materially better today than they were, let's say, this time last year but we're clearly not out of the woods. And there are certainly certain markets and verticals that are still very much challenged with respect to lead times and the utility market is one of those.

是的。不，我想說，作為一個行業，情況好多了。我想說的是，今天的行業和一些供應鏈瓶頸比去年這個時候要好得多，但我們顯然還沒有擺脫困境。當然，某些市場和垂直行業在交貨時間方面仍然面臨很大的挑戰，公用事業市場就是其中之一。

As we mentioned on these calls before that, probably the longest lead time device we probably have in the company is a transformer that goes into the utility segment. And so very much a function of which end market and which product you're talking about. In general, things are getting better, but there's -- lead times are still extended. We're still not back to, let's call it, the pre-2019 levels of lead times. We think our lead times are competitive with our peers in the marketplace and -- but yet, we're still not back to where we were in 2019, and we still are extended in certain product lines.

正如我們之前在這些電話中提到的，我們公司可能擁有的交貨時間最長的設備可能是進入公用事業領域的變壓器。這很大程度上取決於您所談論的終端市場和產品。總的來說，情況正在好轉，但交貨時間仍然延長。我們仍然沒有回到 2019 年之前的交貨時間水平。我們認為我們的交貨時間與市場上的同行相比具有競爭力，但是，我們仍然沒有回到 2019 年的水平，而且我們仍然在某些產品線上進行擴展。

And our next question is from Brett Linzey from Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Brett Linzey。

I just wanted to follow up on that utility comment there. You gave the growth framework to '25. I think you said 11% growth. How should we think about Eaton's relative growth in the context of wallet share per opportunity or any share shifts from some of these capacity additions?

我只是想跟進那裡的實用程序評論。您為“25”提供了增長框架。我想你說的是 11% 的增長。我們應該如何考慮伊頓在每個機會的錢包份額或這些產能增加中的任何份額變化的背景下的相對增長？

Yes. I mean I'd say, Eaton's relative performance, I think with respect to our peers as we talked about before, and it's one of the reasons why we included that chart is that all of our peers aren't the same. We play very broadly across the utility end segment. As I said in my commentary, we think we are the broadest player. We have a broader portfolio of solutions in the utility market than any of our competitors. And so we think we are very well positioned to grow at market -- to grow and perhaps grow faster than the market.

是的。我的意思是，我想說的是，伊頓的相對錶現，我認為是相對於我們之前討論過的同行而言的，這就是我們納入該圖表的原因之一，因為我們所有的同行都不相同。我們在公用事業終端領域的業務非常廣泛。正如我在評論中所說，我們認為我們是最廣泛的參與者。我們在公用事業市場上擁有比任何競爭對手更廣泛的解決方案組合。因此，我們認為我們處於非常有利的位置，可以在市場上實現增長，甚至可能比市場增長得更快。

We are today as our -- most of our peers capacity constrained. And so I do think that the real limiter on growth in terms of the utility market these days is really going to be our ability to add capacity to deal with the growth that we're seeing. And that is the one segment where lead times are still quite extended. And until we get this new capacity online, it's going to be very difficult for us to grow at a much faster rate than the overall market.

今天，我們的大多數同行的能力都受到限制。因此，我確實認為，當今公用事業市場增長的真正限制因素實際上是我們增加容量以應對我們所看到的增長的能力。這是交貨時間仍然相當長的一個領域。在我們獲得這種新產能之前，我們將很難以比整個市場快得多的速度增長。

Okay. Great. And then just one follow-up, and I apologize if I missed it, but on the project funnel, you guys have been giving that rate of growth year-over-year and sequentially. Just curious how that fared in the quarter?

好的。偉大的。然後只有一個後續行動，如果我錯過了，我很抱歉，但在項目漏斗上，你們一直在逐年和連續地給出增長率。只是好奇本季度的表現如何？

Yes. The negotiated, the major projects -- yes, it was up 17% year-over-year and 65% on a 2-year stack.

是的。談判的主要項目——是的，同比增長了 17%，兩年增長了 65%。

The next question is from Joe O'Dea from Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe O'Dea。

I'll ask them both together because they're kind of related, one is lead time related, one is backlog. But any additional color if you think about some of the biggest kind of revenue product categories, just some perspective on where lead times are, where they were at their worst, kind of what you need to get back to for normalization. And then related to that, I think all the tailwinds that you're discussing on sort of the mega project support out there, the stimulus support out there. I think, Tom, your comment was it might take 2 to 3 years for backlog to get back to normal. But I guess even as these lead times correct, it's back to normal not really the expectation or you think it's going to take quite some time before we really start to see any kind of notable step down in these levels?

我會一起問他們兩個，因為他們有點相關，一個與交貨時間相關，一個與積壓有關。但是，如果你考慮一些最大的收入產品類別，任何其他顏色，只是對交貨時間在哪裡、它們在哪裡最糟糕的一些看法，都是你需要回歸正常化的東西。與此相關的是，我認為您正在討論的所有有利因素都是大型項目支持、刺激支持。我想，湯姆，你的評論是積壓可能需要 2 到 3 年才能恢復正常。但我想即使這些交貨時間是正確的，它也恢復正常，這並不是真正的預期，或者您認為我們需要相當長的時間才能真正開始看到這些水平出現任何顯著的下降？

Yes. And I'd say maybe just kind of addressing kind of the first part of your question, which is kind of on lead times and as I mentioned on the prior question, lead times are, in fact, still extended. They've improved somewhat, certainly more so in some of the shorter-cycle businesses. We talked about resi, MOEM, distributed IT. For the big project-related stuff, a lot of those lead times today are still fairly well extended. And for utility markets, they probably haven't improved much at all. So it really does vary widely depending upon which vertical you're referring to.

是的。我想說，也許只是解決你問題的第一部分，即交貨時間，正如我在上一個問題中提到的，事實上，交貨時間仍在延長。它們已經有所改善，尤其是在一些週期較短的業務中。我們討論了 Resi、MOEM、分佈式 IT。對於與大型項目相關的事情，今天的許多交付時間仍然相當長。對於公用事業市場來說，情況可能根本沒有太大改善。因此，根據您所指的垂直領域，它確實存在很大差異。

And it once again, I said we are sold out. We don't have a lot of excess capacity today to really deal with what has clearly been a much faster acceleration in growth than what we originated in some of these big industrial centered kind of product lines and businesses. And until capacity comes online, we would not anticipate that these lead times get materially better.

我再說一遍，我們已經賣完了。今天，我們沒有太多的過剩產能來真正應對明顯比我們起源於一些以工業為中心的大型產品線和業務要快得多的增長加速。在產能上線之前，我們預計交貨時間不會得到實質性改善。

And the same thing I would say would be true backlog, obviously, to your point, very much interrelated until you can release -- reduce your lead times, barring a significant slowdown in the markets, which we don't anticipate, you're really not going to deal with reducing your backlogs either. And so we do think that under a normal planning horizon, the way we're thinking about it, backlog stays elevated for some period of time. I think what Tom was trying to do was simply to try to provide a little comfort around that even if markets slow down, we should continue to be able to post very attractive revenue growth because we can simply eat backlog.

我想說的同樣的事情是真正的積壓，顯然，就你的觀點而言，在你可以發布之前，它們之間非常相互關聯——減少你的交貨時間，除非市場顯著放緩，這是我們預料不到的，你是實際上也不會處理減少積壓的問題。因此，我們確實認為，在正常的規劃範圍內，按照我們的思考方式，積壓工作會在一段時間內保持較高水平。我認為湯姆想做的只是試圖提供一點安慰，即使市場放緩，我們也應該繼續能夠實現非常有吸引力的收入增長，因為我們可以簡單地吃掉積壓訂單。

That's right. That's right. The 2 to 3 years that I quoted is in a turndown situation and is arguably conservative.

這是正確的。這是正確的。我引用的 2 到 3 年處於衰退狀態，可以說是保守的。

Thank you. And at this time, there are no further questions in queue. Please continue.

謝謝。此時，隊列中沒有其他問題了。請繼續。

Thanks, guys. As always, Chip and I will be available to address any of your guys' follow-up questions. Thanks for joining us today. Have a great day.

多謝你們。與往常一樣，我和奇普將隨時解答你們提出的任何後續問題。感謝您今天加入我們。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Event Conferencing. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T Event Conference。您現在可以斷開連接。