艾默生電氣 (EMR) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Emerson third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions) After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加艾默生 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。所有參與者將處於僅聽模式。 （操作員說明）今天的演示結束後，將有機會提問。 （操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Colleen Mettler, Vice President of Investor Relations at. Ms. Mettler, the floor is yours, ma'am.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Colleen Mettler 女士。梅特勒女士，請發言，女士。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Emerson's third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. This morning, I am joined by; President and Chief Executive Officer, Lal Karsanbhai; Chief Financial Officer, Mike Baughman; and Chief Operating Officer, Ram Krishnan.

早安，感謝您參加艾默生 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天早上，我加入了；總裁兼執行長 Lal Karsanbhai；財務長麥克·鮑曼；和首席營運長拉姆·克里希南。

As always I encourage everyone to follow along with the slide presentation, which is available on our website. Please join me on Slide 2. This presentation may include forward-looking statements, which contain a degree of business risk and uncertainty. Please take time to read the safe harbor statement and note on non-GAAP measures. All financial metric in this presentation are on a continuing operations basis.

一如既往，我鼓勵每個人都關注我們網站上的幻燈片演示。請和我一起觀看投影片 2。請花時間閱讀安全港聲明和有關非公認會計準則措施的說明。本簡報中的所有財務指標均以持續經營為基礎。

On June 6, we announced a definitive agreement to sell our remaining interest in the Copeland joint venture. We have included additional information and the accounting treatment of these transactions in the appendix of the presentation.

6 月 6 日，我們宣布達成最終協議，出售我們在 Copeland 合資企業中的剩餘權益。我們在簡報的附錄中提供了更多資訊和這些交易的會計處理。

I will now pass the call over to Emerson's President and CEO, Lal Karsanbhai, for his opening remarks.

現在我將把電話轉給艾默生總裁兼執行長 Lal Karsanbhai，讓他致開幕詞。

Thank you, Colleen. Good morning. Please turn to slide 3. I'd like to thank the 65,000 Emerson employees around the world for delivering another solid set of results. Your commitment to our vision and passion for our purpose comes to life every day. I am moved by our customer focus and the deep care you have for each other, and I am proud and honored to work alongside each of you. Thank you to the Board of Directors for your support of the management team and to our shareholders for your trust in us.

謝謝你，科琳。早安.請翻到投影片 3。您對我們願景的承諾和對我們目標的熱情每天都在實現。我們對客戶的關注以及你們對彼此的深切關懷令我感動，我很自豪也很榮幸能與你們每一個人一起工作。感謝董事會對管理團隊的支持，並感謝股東對我們的信任。

Since I became CEO in 2021, we have talked openly about the transformation of Emerson driven around the three pillars of culture, portfolio and execution. We have moved rapidly to improve across all three. And before we discuss the quarterly financial results, I want to highlight the results of our latest employee survey to show our employees are with us on this journey as our culture continues to evolve.

自 2021 年我擔任執行長以來，我們公開討論了艾默生圍繞文化、產品組合和執行三大支柱驅動的轉型。我們在這三個方面都迅速採取了改進措施。在我們討論季度財務表現之前，我想強調我們最新的員工調查結果，以表明隨著我們的文化不斷發展，我們的員工與我們一起踏上這段旅程。

Our latest company-wide engagement survey, inclusive of Test & Measurement had a participation rate of 89% up 1.4 points from our 2023 survey. We had an engagement score of 79%, a 1-point improvement and only 1 point from world-class levels of 80%. While this is an evergreen journey, and we still have work to do, I am excited about the tangible steps we have taken to create a more inclusive and engaged organization.

我們最新的全公司參與度調查（包括測試與測量）的參與率為 89%，比 2023 年的調查提高了 1.4 個百分點。我們的敬業度得分為 79%，提高了 1 分，距離世界一流水平 80% 只差 1 分。雖然這是一個常青的旅程，我們仍然有工作要做，但我對我們為創造一個更具包容性和參與度的組織所採取的實際步驟感到興奮。

Now let's jump into the operating results. Q3 was another solid quarter for Emerson. Orders in the quarter returned to growth and were up 3% year-over-year, driven by strong project activity in our Process and Hybrid businesses, especially across life sciences, energy and power. Notably, we won several large life science projects in North America and Europe focused on expanding production capabilities for advanced medicines.

現在讓我們來看看營運結果。第三季對艾默生來說又是穩健的季度。在我們的流程和混合業務（尤其是生命科學、能源和電力領域）強勁的專案活動推動下，本季訂單恢復成長，較去年同期成長 3%。值得注意的是，我們在北美和歐洲贏得了多個大型生命科學項目，重點是擴大先進藥物的生產能力。

The Middle East and Latin America saw exceptional demand, and we were awarded several large projects in each. As we expected, Process and Hybrid markets remained steady at mid-single-digit growth as we continue to see investments, particularly in LNG, life sciences, energy and sustainability.

中東和拉丁美洲的需求量很大，我們在每個地區都獲得了幾個大型專案。正如我們預期的那樣，隨著我們繼續看到投資，特別是在液化天然氣、生命科學、能源和永續發展方面的投資，製程和混合市場保持穩定在中個位數成長。

While capital project investments continue to progress, MRO orders were slightly softer than expected in the quarter. Discrete Automation orders were softer than expected, down low single digits both year-over-year and sequentially as factory automation end markets remained weak. The green shoots we were beginning to see through April and May took a step back in June, and we are now expecting a slower recovery, though we expect Discrete Automation orders to be flat to slightly positive in Q4 on a low base of comparison.

儘管資本項目投資持續取得進展，但本季 MRO 訂單略低於預期。由於工廠自動化終端市場依然疲軟，離散自動化訂單比預期疲軟，年比和季比均下降了低個位數。我們在4 月和5 月開始看到的萌芽在6 月後退了一步，我們現在預計復甦會更慢，儘管我們預計第四季度離散自動化訂單在比較基數較低的情況下將持平或略有增長。

Excluded from underlying, Test & Measurement orders remained soft, down 11%. Additionally, for total Emerson, we saw a weaker demand environment in China across most of our business segments. We now expect low single-digit underlying order growth for the second half and for the full year.

不計入基礎訂單，測試與測量訂單依然疲軟，下降了 11%。此外，對艾默生來說，我們大部分的業務部門都發現中國的需求環境較弱。我們現在預計下半年和全年的基本訂單成長將呈現低個位數。

Emerson delivered strong operating results with margin leverage, adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow all exceeding expectations. Sales came in at the low end of our guide, and I'll provide additional color on the next slide.

艾默生實現了強勁的經營業績，利潤率、調整後每股盈餘和自由現金流都超乎預期。銷售額處於我們指南的低端，我將在下一張投影片上提供更多顏色。

Due to weaker orders, Test & Measurement sales also came in slightly below expectations. However, profitability met expectations as we are seeing the impact of our synergy realization. Transportation and semiconductor markets remain weak, while aerospace and defense performed well, and we saw continued government spending and research.

由於訂單疲軟，測試與測量銷售也略低於預期。然而，由於我們看到了綜效實現的影響，獲利能力達到了預期。運輸和半導體市場仍然疲軟，而航空航太和國防表現良好，我們看到政府持續支出和研究。

The European market was softer than expected amid lingering EV demand concerns, and China remains sluggish across most Test & Measurement segments. Due to this, we are looking into second half of 2025 for recovery in this business.

由於電動車需求擔憂揮之不去，歐洲市場比預期疲軟，而中國大多數測試與測量領域仍然低迷。因此，我們預計該業務將於 2025 年下半年復甦。

With softer orders, we are adjusting our full year sales to be $1.45 billion to $1.5 billion, but the accelerated synergy actions we have taken will help protect profitability and position the business well for a return to growth.

由於訂單疲軟，我們將全年銷售額調整為 14.5 億至 15 億美元，但我們採取的加速協同行動將有助於保護獲利能力，並使業務為恢復成長做好準備。

We continue to be excited about the value creation potential of our differentiated portfolio. Emerson's strong performance through the first 9 months and resolute focus driven by our Emerson management system gives us the confidence to execute on our 2024 plan.

我們仍然對我們差異化產品組合的價值創造潛力感到興奮。艾默生前 9 個月的強勁表現以及艾默生管理系統驅動的堅定專注讓我們有信心執行 2024 年計畫。

We expect underlying sales of approximately 6% and are increasing the midpoint of our adjusted EPS guide to $5.45 to $5.50 and we are raising our free cash flow guidance to approximately $2.8 billion. We look forward to a strong finish to 2024 and are energized to deliver continued value creation for our shareholders.

我們預計基本銷售額約為 6%，並將調整後每股盈餘指引的中點提高至 5.45 美元至 5.50 美元，並將自由現金流指引提高至約 28 億美元。我們期待 2024 年圓滿成功，並充滿活力為股東持續創造價值。

Please turn to slide 4. Underlying sales growth was 3%. Life sciences and power markets continue to perform well, both up double digit as we executed key projects across North America and Europe. Europe is seeing continued strength in energy, power and sustainability markets as well as our MRO business, particularly in Western Europe.

請翻至投影片 4。隨著我們在北美和歐洲執行關鍵項目，生命科學和電力市場繼續表現良好，兩者都實現兩位數成長。歐洲的能源、電力和永續發展市場以及我們的 MRO 業務持續強勁，尤其是在西歐。

In the Americas, broad-based healthy growth across Latin America was slightly offset by slower MRO in North America. Robust performance in the Middle East, driven by strong project activity was offset by broad-based weakness in Asia.

在美洲，整個拉丁美洲廣泛的健康成長被北美較慢的 MRO 略微抵消。中東地區在專案活動強勁的推動下表現強勁，但被亞洲的普遍疲軟所抵消。

Continuing the exceptional gross margin performance from last quarter, gross margins were 52.8% in Q3, a 230 basis point improvement from the prior year. Our gross profit percentage year-to-date is 50.6%, even with the acquisition and integration costs incurred in Q1. This gives us confidence in our expectation that this portfolio will deliver greater than 50% gross margins as we look forward.

延續上季優異的毛利率表現，第三季毛利率為 52.8%，較上年提高 230 個基點。即使考慮到第一季發生的收購和整合成本，我們今年迄今的毛利率仍為 50.6%。這讓我們對我們的預期充滿信心，即我們預期該投資組合將實現超過 50% 的毛利率。

Operating leverage was 67%, significantly stronger than expected due to better performance from AspenTech, project mix and realization of more cost reductions than expected from actions taken throughout the year.

營運槓桿率為 67%，明顯強於預期，因為 AspenTech 的業績、專案組合以及全年採取的行動實現了比預期更多的成本削減。

Adjusted earnings per share exceeded expectations at $1.43, above the top end of our guide and up 11% from 2023. Emerson generated robust free cash flow of $975 million, up 27% year-over-year and with a free cash flow margin of 22.3% for the quarter. Mike will walk through additional details on our results in a few slides. We are pleased to deliver another strong quarter and are excited to continue demonstrating the value creation potential of our transformed portfolio.

調整後每股收益超出預期，為 1.43 美元，高於我們指南的上限，較 2023 年增長 11%。該季度的%。麥克將在幾張投影片中詳細介紹我們的結果。我們很高興再次實現強勁的季度業績，並很高興繼續展示我們轉型後的投資組合的價值創造潛力。

Please turn to slide 5. We continue to see strong capital project investments with our strategic project funnel now at $11 billion, up approximately $200 million from Q2. The funnel growth demonstrates the strong sustained capital cycle aligned to our growth programs. As the increase predominantly came from projects supporting energy transition, life sciences, sustainability and decarbonization.

請參閱投影片 5。漏斗成長顯示了與我們的成長計畫一致的強勁持續資本週期。由於成長主要來自支持能源轉型、生命科學、永續發展和脫碳的計畫。

In the third quarter, Emerson was awarded approximately $350 million of project content, consistent with prior quarters. We had wins in large traditional energy projects as well as additional awards from offshore vessels in Brazil, as mentioned last quarter. Our growth programs also performed well in the quarter, accounting for a little under half of the awards, and I want to highlight a few key wins.

第三季度，艾默生獲得了約 3.5 億美元的項目內容，與前幾季持平。正如上季度所提到的，我們在大型傳統能源項目中取得了勝利，並獲得了巴西近海船舶的額外獎項。我們的成長計畫在本季也表現良好，佔獎項的一半以下，我想強調一些關鍵的勝利。

Emerson was selected to automate Nemaska Lithium Whabouchi Mine at the Bécancour lithium conversion facility projects in Quebec, Canada. Based on our proven ability to provide a differentiated solution, including a common control platform across sites. This mine is one of the largest high-purity lithium deposits in North America.

艾默生被選中為加拿大魁北克省 Bécancour 鋰轉化設施項目的 Nemaska Lithium Whabouchi 礦場實現自動化。基於我們提供差異化解決方案的成熟能力，包括跨站點的通用控制平台。該礦是北美最大的高純度鋰礦床之一。

Fueled by hydroelectric power, the Bécancour facility will convert to spodumene concentrate to lithium hydroxide. This is the first such conversion in Canada and Nemaska Lithium projects will play an important role in the North America battery value chain. Emerson will provide much of our leading technology to automate both facilities, including DeltaV control systems and software, reliability solutions, valves and instruments. This example highlights the breadth of the Emerson portfolio and demonstrates how we are well suited to serve this emerging market.

在水力發電的推動下，貝坎庫爾工廠將把鋰輝石精礦轉化為氫氧化鋰。這是加拿大的首個此類轉換，Nemaska 鋰計畫將在北美電池價值鏈中發揮重要作用。艾默生將提供許多領先技術來實現這兩個設施的自動化，包括 DeltaV 控制系統和軟體、可靠性解決方案、閥門和儀表。這個例子凸顯了艾默生產品組合的廣度，並展示了我們如何非常適合服務這個新興市場。

Next, I'd like to highlight Emerson was selected to support one of the largest renewable energy park projects in India, spearheaded by one of India's largest and most prominent renewable energy companies. Emerson will provide our Ovation Green SCADA solution, including pitch control and park power management for the wind turbines.

接下來，我想強調艾默生被選中支持印度最大的再生能源園區計畫之一，該計畫由印度最大、最著名的再生能源公司之一領導。艾默生將提供 Ovation Green SCADA 解決方案，包括風力渦輪機的變槳控制和園區電力管理。

Emerson was chosen for our scalable automation software and technologies that enhance wind turbine performance as well as our comprehensive local support capabilities, including engineering, fuel support and production.

艾默生因其可擴展的自動化軟體和技術而被選中，這些軟體和技術可增強風力渦輪機的性能，以及我們全面的本地支援能力，包括工程、燃料支援和生產。

Finally, Emerson was chosen to automate a key green hydrogen project in Uzbekistan, which will use a 52-megawatt onshore wind farm to produce 3,000 tons of green hydrogen annually, which will be used to manufacture 500,000 tons of ammonia fertilizer.

最終，艾默生被選中為烏茲別克斯坦一個重要的綠色氫能項目提供自動化服務，該項目將利用一座52兆瓦的陸上風電場每年生產3000噸綠色氫，這些氫將用於製造50萬噸氨肥。

ACWA Power, a first mover on green hydrogen and part of the NEOM Green Hydrogen project will operate the plant and H-TEC (ph) will design and construct the facility. Emerson was selected for our advanced technologies and domain expertise and will provide several technologies from our hydrogen portfolio, including instruments, control valves and our Ovation Green control system.

ACWA Power 是綠氫的先行者，也是 NEOM 綠氫計畫的一部分，將運作該工廠，H-TEC (ph) 將設計和建造該工廠。艾默生因其先進技術和領域專業知識而被選中，並將提供我們氫氣產品組合中的多項技術，包括儀器、控制閥和 Ovation Green 控制系統。

Turning to slide 6. We remain focused on driving our strategic priorities, including accelerating innovation for profitable growth and enhancing our position as a global leader in automation. One of our breakthrough innovation priorities is software-defined automation. Our industry-leading Ovation Automation platform just launched a software-defined AI-ready platform for the power and water industries.

轉向幻燈片 6。我們的突破性創新重點之一是軟體定義的自動化。我們業界領先的 Ovation Automation 平台剛剛為電力和水務產業推出了軟體定義的 AI 就緒平台。

The Ovation Automation Platform 4.0 builds upon our boundless automation vision to bring a unifying data fabric across the organizations to optimize operations from device to enterprise. Ovation 4.0 brings customer-focused innovation, such as secure generative AI models to offer prescriptive operations and maintenance guidance together in a robust solutions portfolio. It also offers integration with our Ovation Green software to improve holistic awareness across traditional and renewable power generation and storage to aid customers who have an increasingly complex mix of generating assets.

Ovation 自動化平台 4.0 建立在我們無限的自動化願景之上，為整個組織帶來統一的資料結構，以優化從設備到企業的營運。 Ovation 4.0 帶來了以客戶為中心的創新，例如安全的生成式 AI 模型，可在強大的解決方案組合中提供規範的操作和維護指導。它還提供與我們的 Ovation Green 軟體的集成，以提高傳統和可再生發電和儲存的整體意識，從而為擁有日益複雜的發電資產組合的客戶提供幫助。

Customer-focused innovation is a hallmark of Emerson, and I wanted to highlight one of the key methods we have for formal engagements. Our Ovation business recently held their 37th Users Conference in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, with 70% of U.S. power utilities participating in a multi-day event focused on the power and water industries. This conference featured interactive technology exhibits, customer case studies and collaborative industry sessions focused on emerging technical and business topics. Ovation Users Group creates a world-class engagement as users provide direct input for potential product enhancements, which helps inform our strategic product development plans.

以客戶為中心的創新是艾默生的標誌，我想強調我們正式參與的關鍵方法之一。我們的 Ovation 業務最近在賓州匹茲堡舉行了第 37 屆用戶大會，70% 的美國電力公司參加了這場為期多天的活動，重點是電力和水務產業。本次會議以互動技術展覽、客戶案例研究和專注於新興技術和業務主題的產業協作會議為特色。 Ovation 使用者群組創建了世界級的參與度，因為使用者為潛在的產品增強提供直接輸入，這有助於為我們的策略性產品開發計劃提供資訊。

We also took a key step forward in our transformation and simplification journey in Q3 as we announced a definitive agreement to sell our remaining interest in the Copeland joint venture. Private equity funds managed by Blackstone will purchase the equity stake, while Copeland repurchased the sellers note. The transaction involving the Copeland note receivable closed on August 2, with pretax cash proceeds of $1.9 billion which will be used to pay down debt. We expect the equity portion to close by the end of August.

我們在第三季的轉型和簡化之旅中也邁出了關鍵一步，我們宣布了一項最終協議，出售我們在 Copeland 合資企業中的剩餘權益。 Blackstone 管理的私募股權基金將購買股權，而 Copeland 則回購賣方票據。涉及 Copeland 應收票據的交易於 8 月 2 日結束，稅前現金收益為 19 億美元，將用於償還債務。我們預計股權部分將於八月底完成。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Mike Baughman to walk through our financial results in more detail.

現在，我將把電話轉給麥克鮑曼 (Mike Baughman)，讓他更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Lal and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 7 to discuss our third quarter financial results. Underlying sales growth was 3%, led by our Process and Hybrid businesses and partially offset by continued softness in discrete. Price contributed 2 points of growth. Underlying growth was similar across regions, with Europe up 4%, the Americas, up 3% and Asia and the Middle East, up 2%.

謝謝拉爾，大家早安。請翻到投影片 7 討論我們第三季的財務表現。基本銷售額成長 3%，主要由我們的流程和混合業務帶動，但部分被離散業務的持續疲軟所抵消。價格貢獻了2個百分點的成長。各地區的基本成長相似，歐洲成長 4%，美洲成長 3%，亞洲和中東成長 2%。

Intelligent Devices grew 2%, while software and control grew 7%. AspenTech sales were stronger than expected, growing at 7%. Discrete Automation was down mid-single digits, lower than expected due to a slower pace of recovery amidst continued market weakness.

智慧型設備成長 2%，軟體和控製成長 7%。 AspenTech 的銷售額成長 7%，強於預期。離散自動化業務下降了中個位數，低於預期，因為市場持續疲軟，復甦步伐較慢。

Test and Measurement, which is not included in the underlying metric contributed $355 million to our net sales, slightly below expectations for the quarter. As expected, backlog decreased slightly from Q2 and exited Q3 at $7.4 billion.

未包含在基本指標中的測試和測量為我們的淨銷售額貢獻了 3.55 億美元，略低於本季的預期。如預期，積壓訂單較第二季略有下降，第三季末訂單量為 74 億美元。

Adjusted segment EBITDA margin improved 20 basis points to 27.1% due to strong gross margin performance, favorable price cost and the benefit of cost reductions. This quarter's adjusted segment EBITDA margin of 27.1% is a record high compared to 26.9% last year in Q3, which was the previous record high. Test and Measurement adjusted segment EBITDA margin was 21.4%, sequentially flat on slightly lower volume as we continue to see the benefit of our synergy actions.

由於強勁的毛利率表現、有利的價格成本以及成本削減的好處，調整後的部門 EBITDA 利潤率提高了 20 個基點，達到 27.1%。本季調整後的分部 EBITDA 利潤率為 27.1%，創歷史新高，而去年第三季為 26.9%，創下歷史新高。測試和測量調整後的部門 EBITDA 利潤率為 21.4%，環比持平，銷售略有下降，因為我們繼續看到協同行動的好處。

Operating leverage, excluding Test and Measurement was 67%, exceeding expectations. This outperformance was driven by a higher portion of software revenue and fewer lower margin project shipments than expected, offset by negative geographic mix.

營運槓桿（不包括測試和測量）為 67%，超出預期。這種優異表現是由於軟體收入比例較高以及利潤率較低的項目出貨量低於預期而推動的，但被負面的地域組合所抵消。

Strong quarters from AspenTech and Control Systems and software benefited leverage. Discrete automation had sequential margin improvement from cost actions we took as we saw market conditions continue to decline. The operating leverage from our measurement and analytical business was dilutive in the quarter, primarily due to geographic mix and slower MRO. Adjusted earnings per share grew 11% to $1.43 and I will discuss that in more depth on the next chart.

AspenTech 和控制系統及軟體的強勁季度業績使槓桿率受益。當我們看到市場狀況持續下滑時，我們採取的成本行動使離散自動化的利潤率持續提高。我們的測量和分析業務的營運槓桿在本季度有所稀釋，這主要是由於地理混合和 MRO 放緩。調整後每股收益成長 11%，達到 1.43 美元，我將在下一張圖表中更深入地討論這一點。

Finally, free cash flow was $975 million, up 27% versus the prior year and above expectations. This was driven by earnings and improvements in working capital especially in inventory and receivables. Free cash flow margin in the quarter was 22.3%, inclusive of $40 million of cash outflow for acquisition-related costs, integration activities and elevated capital expenditures. To date, we have incurred $210 million of the anticipated $250 million headwind we discussed last November.

最後，自由現金流為 9.75 億美元，比上年增長 27%，超出預期。這是由收益和營運資本（尤其是庫存和應收帳款）的改善所推動的。本季自由現金流利潤率為 22.3%，其中包括用於收購相關成本、整合活動和增加的資本支出的 4,000 萬美元現金流出。去年 11 月我們討論過的預計 2.5 億美元的逆風中，迄今為止，我們已經遭受了 2.1 億美元的損失。

Please turn to slide 8. Our adjusted earnings per share increased $0.14 from the prior year. Strong performance from operations, especially in our software and control businesses contributed $0.16. Corporate was a $0.02 drag due to a higher income tax rate caused by an earnings mix skewed toward higher rate jurisdictions.

請翻到投影片 8。營運的強勁表現，尤其是我們的軟體和控制業務貢獻了 0.16 美元。由於獲利組合偏向稅率較高的司法管轄區，導致所得稅率較高，因此企業拖累了 0.02 美元。

AspenTech contributed an incremental $0.03 versus the prior year, higher than expected due to outperformance in GACV and higher revenue. Test and Measurement contributed $0.09 slightly below expectations driven by lower volume. We also had a $0.01 headwind to expectations in Q3 as we stopped accruing interest income from the Copeland note receivable when we reached a definitive agreement to sell it on June 6.

AspenTech 的貢獻較前一年增加了 0.03 美元，高於預期，原因是 GACV 表現出色且收入增加。由於銷量下降，測試和測量貢獻了 0.09 美元，略低於預期。我們在第三季的預期也出現了 0.01 美元的逆風，因為當我們在 6 月 6 日達成出售應收票據的最終協議時，我們停止了應收谷輪票據的利息收入。

Please turn to the next slide for details on our updated guidance for 2024. Fiscal year 2024 underlying sales are now expected to grow approximately 6% in line with the midpoint of our May guidance, which is supported by our process and hybrid businesses which continue to perform well amid a delayed discrete recovery and a weaker China.

請參閱下一張投影片，以了解有關我們更新的2024 年指引的詳細資訊。混合業務的支持，這些業務繼續在離散復甦延遲和中國疲軟的情況下表現良好。

Reported net sales growth is expected to be approximately 15%, with Test and Measurement contributing approximately 9.5 points of growth, offset by a 0.5 point drag from FX. We are increasing our operating leverage expectations to the mid- to high 40s, driven by the strong leverage performance through the first 9 months and strong leverage expected in Q4.

報告的淨銷售額增長預計約為 15%，其中測試和測量貢獻約 9.5 個百分點的增長，抵消了 0.5 個百分點的外匯拖累。受前 9 個月強勁槓桿表現和第四季度預期強勁槓桿的推動，我們將營運槓桿預期提高至 40 左右。

We are raising the midpoint of adjusted EPS guidance and expect $5.45 to $5.50. Test and Measurement is now expected to contribute $0.42 to $0.44. Test and Measurement is a business with very strong leverage, so the impact of our synergy actions are helping maintain profitability despite a weaker volume environment than initially planned.

我們正在上調調整後每股收益指引的中點，預計為 5.45 美元至 5.50 美元。測試與測量目前預計貢獻 0.42 至 0.44 美元。測試和測量是一項具有非常強大槓桿作用的業務，因此，儘管銷售環境比最初計劃的要弱，但我們的協同行動的影響正在幫助維持盈利能力。

For the full year, we expect Test and Measurement's adjusted segment EBITDA margin to be approximately 23%, a couple of points above the prior year benefiting from the synergy realization. With AspenTech's strong results in Q3, we are bringing their expected EPS contribution back up to $0.32 to $0.34.

就全年而言，我們預計測試與測量部門調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 23%，比前一年高出幾個百分點，受益於綜效的實現。鑑於 AspenTech 在第三季的強勁業績，我們將其預期 EPS 貢獻回升至 0.32 至 0.34 美元。

We are also raising our free cash flow expectations for the year to approximately $2.8 billion, driven by the working capital improvements and Q3's performance. Dividend and tax rate expectations are unchanged and we now expect approximately $300 million of share repurchase. We have been focused on debt pay down particularly with short-term interest rates staying higher for longer, and we retired $500 million of term debt that came due in Q3.

在營運資本改善和第三季業績的推動下，我們也將今年的自由現金流預期提高至約 28 億美元。股利和稅率預期保持不變，我們現在預計將回購約 3 億美元的股票。我們一直專注於償還債務，特別是在短期利率長期維持較高水準的情況下，我們還清了第三季到期的 5 億美元定期債務。

Our performance through the first 9 months has exceeded expectations, and we are excited to continue delivering strong results. Our transformed portfolio has meaningfully improved with higher profitability driven by gross profit margins above 50% and higher organic growth driven by secular trends, and our Emerson management system is driving operational excellence.

我們前 9 個月的表現超出了預期，我們很高興能夠繼續取得強勁的業績。我們轉型後的產品組合顯著改善，毛利率超過 50%，帶來更高的獲利能力，長期趨勢帶來更高的有機成長，而我們的艾默生管理系統正在推動卓越營運。

With that, I'll turn the call over to the Q&A portion of our call.

這樣，我會將通話轉入通話的問答部分。

Thank you, sir. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research.

謝謝你，先生。我們現在開始問答環節。 （操作員說明）。傑夫·斯普拉格，垂直研究。

Hey, thank you. Good morning, everyone. Two questions, one big picture and one smaller picture, I guess. First off, kind of the big picture stuff. Lal, this idea of kind of software-defined automation and what you're doing with Ovation. I think this is also sort of instrumental to better collaborating, integrating whatever you want to say, between DeltaV and Aspen's offerings.

嘿，謝謝你。大家，早安。我猜有兩個問題，一張大圖和一張小圖。首先，是一些大局的東西。 Lal，這種軟體定義自動化的想法以及您使用 Ovation 所做的事情。我認為這也有助於更好地協作，整合 DeltaV 和 Aspen 的產品之間您想說的任何內容。

Maybe you could kind of address that, if I'm correct in that assumption and where you're at and sort of kind of propagating that change in technology posture across rest of the portfolio.

也許你可以解決這個問題，如果我的假設和你所處的位置是正確的，並且在投資組合的其餘部分中傳播技術態勢的變化。

Yeah. Good morning, Jeff, good to hear from you.

是的。早安，傑夫，很高興收到你的來信。

No, you're absolutely right. As we laid out that vision, it certainly is designed to accomplish a couple of factors. The first being to liberate the data that exists in silos across operations in broad industry. And the second then is to actually use the analytics power to drive productivity, efficiency, higher levels of safety and efficiency with analytic packages inclusive of much of what AspenTech can bring to the table to optimize facilities and production.

不，你說得完全正確。當我們提出這個願景時，它的目的當然是為了實現幾個因素。第一個是釋放廣泛行業運營中存在的數據孤島。第二個是實際利用分析能力來提高生產力、效率、更高水準的安全性和效率，其中包括 AspenTech 可以提供的大部分分析套件來優化設施和生產。

So that vision certainly exists. We are on the path to bring compute out of centralized siloed data approaches into the edge, which is the first step with products that have already released in the marketplace with DeltaV, and we'll continue to move forward to deliver on the vision.

所以這個願景確實存在。我們正在將運算從集中式孤立資料方法引入邊緣，這是已經透過 DeltaV 在市場上發布的產品的第一步，我們將繼續前進以實現這一願景。

But this step with Ovation was very critical as well because, as you know, that serves the power and water industries exclusively and to be able to bring that capability into those markets was critical.

但 Ovation 的這一步也非常關鍵，因為如您所知，Ovation 專門服務於電力和水務行業，並且能夠將該功能引入這些市場至關重要。

Great. And then kind of more near term and I may have missed it. I was on 5 or 10 minutes late. But kind of the shorter-cycle elements of the portfolio, just your view on when discrete bottoms when NI bottoms, you brought down the order outlook a little bit for the year which is probably tied to those end markets. But maybe just what you see as we start to look into 2025 and the eventual bottoming and turning in those end markets?

偉大的。然後是更近期的事情，我可能錯過了。我遲到了5或10分鐘。但是，投資組合中的較短週期元素，只是您對 NI 觸底時離散觸底的看法，您稍微降低了今年的訂單前景，這可能與這些終端市場有關。但也許這正是您在我們開始展望 2025 年以及這些終端市場最終觸底和轉向時所看到的情況？

Yes. No, certainly. So the discrete cycle recovery has been slower than expected. We certainly believe that we can get to close to positive orders in the last quarter of the year here on discrete, but that will be, of course, based on some very weak comparisons. But that will start us on the path to recovery into 2025.

是的。不，當然。因此，離散週期的恢復速度比預期慢。我們當然相信，我們可以在今年最後一個季度在離散方面接近正訂單，但這當然是基於一些非常弱的比較。但這將使我們踏上 2025 年復甦之路。

Test and Measurement, a little slower. We're watching our customers very carefully there speaking engaging with them. We're watching our peers in the marketplace as well and their performance. And we foresee sales turning positive there in the second half of 2025 with orders turning positive in the first half of 2025.

測試和測量，慢一點。我們非常仔細地觀察我們的客戶與他們交談的情況。我們也在關注市場上的同業及其表現。我們預計 2025 年下半年銷售額將轉為正值，2025 年上半年訂單將轉為正值。

And then lastly, Jeff, I'll just add that offsetting a lot of that is what continues to be a strong capital cycle formation cycle here with process and hybrid markets and also momentum in what we see at AspenTech. And so those offset a little bit of how we're thinking. Certainly, I believe that as we think about 2025 and start to guide that we will be probably towards the lower end of that range that we've given on our through-the-cycle expectations, but well within that.

最後，傑夫，我想補充一點，抵消掉其中的大部分因素的是，這裡仍然是一個強大的資本週期形成周期，其中包括流程和混合市場，以及我們在 AspenTech 看到的勢頭。所以這些都抵消了我們的想法。當然，我相信，當我們思考 2025 年並開始指導時，我們可能會達到我們給出的整個週期預期範圍的下限，但完全在這個範圍內。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the question. Just want to pick up on the last question from Jeff there. The $1.45 billion to $1.5 billion range for Test and Measurement in 4Q is obviously quite wide. I think just given the expectation that we don't get to revenue growth until the second half of the year, it seems that we're tracking towards the lower end of that range. Just wanted to make sure that was correct.

謝謝。大家，早安。謝謝你的提問。我只想回答傑夫的最後一個問題。第四季測試和測量的 14.5 億美元到 15 億美元的範圍顯然相當寬。我認為，考慮到我們要到今年下半年才能實現收入成長的預期，我們似乎正在朝著該範圍的下限前進。只是想確保這是正確的。

We guided because we still have confidence that we can hit within that guide, Nigel, I certainly wouldn't write it up to the low end of the range at this point. This is the best guide that we feel we can commit to as a management team. Obviously, at some point in the midpoint is how you can think about it.

我們進行指導是因為我們仍然有信心達到該指導範圍內，奈傑爾，我現在當然不會將其寫到範圍的低端。這是我們認為作為管理團隊可以致力於的最佳指南。顯然，在中間的某個時刻你可以考慮它。

Okay. Great. And just to kind of zooming out a sort of a general comment on the environment out there. Obviously, we've seen deterioration in sort of general industrial markets, it feels like some projects are again delayed with some of the uncertainty, maybe higher rates. Just give an overview in terms of what you're seeing out there from customers, maybe a bit more of an end market overview.

好的。偉大的。只是為了縮小對外部環境的一般性評論。顯然，我們已經看到一般工業市場的惡化，感覺一些項目再次被推遲，因為一些不確定性，可能是更高的利率。只需概述您從客戶那裡看到的情況，也許更多的是終端市場概述。

And just wondering, obviously the funnel remains very vibrant, increased slightly Q-over-Q. But what about this funnel to order kind of conversion process? Are you starting to see longer decision-making?

只是想知道，顯然漏斗仍然非常活躍，Q 比 Q 略有增加。但是這種從通路到訂單的轉換過程又如何呢？您是否開始考慮更長的決策時間？

Yes. Thanks, Nigel. Yes, I'll comment. Of course, the funnel did grow, as you noted. We booked approximately an equal amount that we've been booking historically on a quarterly basis, $350 million in value. The mix changes a little bit depending on end market timing and we shared that with you as well in the deck.

是的。謝謝，奈傑爾。是的，我會發表評論。當然，正如您所指出的，漏斗確實增長了。我們預訂的金額與歷史上每季預訂的金額大致相同，即價值 3.5 億美元。根據終端市場的時機，組合會略有變化，我們也在甲板上與您分享了這一點。

So I continue to look at this the funnel and the capital formation cycle in a positive manner. I haven't seen degradation of projects or projects being eliminated. I haven't seen any slowdown in the expansion of the sustainability projects or the LNG, particularly as it relates to the Middle East and Africa. So I'm still very optimistic there.

因此，我繼續以積極的方式看待這個漏斗和資本形成週期。我沒有看到專案退化或專案被淘汰。我沒有看到永續發展項目或液化天然氣的擴張有任何放緩，特別是與中東和非洲有關的項目。所以我對此仍然非常樂觀。

Now what we are watching very carefully is that projects that have been booked, the pace at which our customers are willing to accept product whether there are delays that are being implemented around inspections and other areas, we're watching that very carefully, and we have experienced some of that in the quarter, which obviously contributed to our lower sales 3% versus the low end of our guide versus the expectation. But there's some of that going on, which obviously we're watching very carefully.

現在我們正在非常仔細地觀察的是，已經預訂的項目，我們的客戶願意接受產品的速度，是否存在檢查和其他領域實施的延誤，我們正在非常仔細地觀察，並且我們在本季度經歷了其中的一些情況，這顯然導致我們的銷售額比預期的低端低3%。但有些事情正在發生，顯然我們正在非常仔細地觀察。

I would just add to that, Nigel, some of that read through in the leverage this quarter. We talked in the comments about some projects that did get pushed out, which was a little addition by subtraction because those projects are generally lower margin. So it was part of the 67% in the quarter.

奈傑爾，我想補充一點，本季槓桿率中的一些內容。我們在評論中談到了一些確實被推出的項目，這是一個小小的加減法，因為這些項目的利潤率通常較低。所以它是本季 67% 的一部分。

That's a very good point. And of course, lastly Nigel, to the question. Our process and hybrid orders are still up mid-single digits, and that's important to recognize.

這是一個很好的觀點。當然，最後奈傑爾回答這個問題。我們的流程和混合訂單仍處於中個位數，認識到這一點很重要。

That's great. Thanks, Lal.

那太棒了。謝謝，拉爾。

Thank you, sir.

謝謝你，先生。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

斯科特·戴維斯，Melius 研究公司。

Hey, good morning, everybody.

嘿，大家早安。

And congrats on navigating through the choppiness here. I kind of curious, I mean you're going to have a fair amount of cash on hand. Once you get this Copeland thing done, seem kind of in a good spot from a leverage. I guess my question really is, what do you plan to do on the proceeds, but I guess more explicitly is, do you feel like you have the capacity to do M&A? Or are we still digesting this point and want to focus on that?

恭喜您度過了這裡的波濤洶湧。我有點好奇，我的意思是你手邊會有相當數量的現金。一旦你完成了谷輪的事情，似乎就處於一個有利的位置。我想我的問題其實是，你打算用所得收益做什麼，但我想更明確的是，你覺得你有能力進行併購嗎？或者我們還在消化這一點並想重點關注這一點嗎？

Yes. No, certainly, I feel great about the balance sheet and what we have to do in terms of maintaining our investment grade. And I think that's very important. We are working very hard to integrate National Instruments and feel really good about the progress that, that team continues to make. It's a set of markets that we like that will drive differentiation and through the cycle growth for our company. And I think that we feel very good.

是的。不，當然，我對資產負債表以及我們在維持投資評級方面必須採取的措施感到滿意。我認為這非常重要。我們正在非常努力地整合 National Instruments，並且對團隊不斷取得的進展感到非常滿意。我們喜歡這一系列市場，它們將推動我們公司的差異化並實現週期成長。我認為我們感覺很好。

Now having said all that, we will have the capacity, if we wish to put that balance sheet to work. And that's something that, Scott, as you know, will continue to evaluate the time and what the right move would be in terms of the majority position that we own in AspenTech.

話雖如此，如果我們希望讓資產負債表發揮作用，我們將有能力。如你所知，斯科特將繼續評估時間以及根據我們在 AspenTech 所擁有的多數地位而言正確的舉措是什麼。

Okay. Fair enough. And then I wanted to follow up on Jeff's question on Ovation because I think it's put it on a slide, and it's not a product line. I think historically, you guys have talked about it a lot, but it is a pretty powerful installed base that you have. I mean how big a deal is this 4.0 upgrade? And is there a way for us to think about like what percentage of your installed base you would expect to upgrade? Or is there some sort of kind of way to tangibly think about the impact of this iteration?

好的。很公平。然後我想跟進 Jeff 關於 Ovation 的問題，因為我認為它只是放在幻燈片上，而不是產品線。我認為從歷史上看，你們已經談論過很多次了，但你們擁有一個非常強大的安裝基礎。我的意思是這個4.0升級有多大意義？有沒有辦法讓我們考慮一下您希望升級的安裝基礎的百分比？或者是否有某種方法可以切實地思考本次迭代的影響？

And is iteration even the right word to use? Is it a step change, a meaningful step change where you kind of hit that tipping point where like you said 70% of the people came to your event, where people just generally hit the bid on that more so than maybe they did in the past. Any color there would be helpful?

迭代這個詞用得是否正確？這是一個階段性的改變，一個有意義的階段性改變，你有點達到了臨界點，就像你說的那樣，70%的人來參加你的活動，人們通常比過去更多地出價。任何顏色都會有幫助嗎？

Yes. From an Ovation perspective, we've continued to have significant releases in the capabilities of that technology over time. And this is certainly a significant one, which incorporates a lot of technology from Aspen and fundamentally from an optimization perspective, from an analytics perspective, in terms of copilots provides capability that we've not had innovation before.

是的。從 Ovation 的角度來看，隨著時間的推移，我們不斷發布該技術的重大功能。這無疑是一項重要的技術，它融合了阿斯彭的大量技術，從根本上從優化的角度、從分析的角度來看，在副駕駛方面提供了我們以前沒有過的創新能力。

And I think it is significant given the fact that the investment in the power generation infrastructure in this country and globally is at a tipping point. And just given the boom in AI and data centers, and we talked about it in the last earnings call, we expect the power generation investments as well as transmission and distribution and renewable to be a very, very important growth vector for us. Innovation 4.0 certainly positions us very well in that capacity.

鑑於這個國家和全球發電基礎設施的投資正處於轉折點，我認為這一點意義重大。鑑於人工智慧和資料中心的蓬勃發展，我們在上次財報電話會議中談到了這一點，我們預計發電投資以及輸配電和再生能源將成為我們非常非常重要的成長向量。創新 4.0 無疑地使我們在這方面處於有利地位。

And frankly, on greenfield, our modernizations are lifetime extensions of power plants, but also the opportunity to go in and upgrade existing systems with the new capabilities that we have in 4.0. So that's really what we're very excited about.

坦白說，在綠地上，我們的現代化改造不僅是延長發電廠的使用壽命，也是利用 4.0 中的新功能進入和升級現有系統的機會。這確實是我們非常興奮的事情。

And I think the step change here to your question, Scott, lands on the use of the AI models, which will enable planning purposes around maintenance, taking down assets for turnaround activity. It will give a higher probability that you're actually going to work on the maintenance records and elements that most needed in the plant. And I think that's incrementally new and different in the marketplace.

史考特，我認為對你的問題的一步改變在於人工智慧模型的使用，這將實現圍繞維護的規劃目的，為週轉活動減少資產。這將使您更有可能真正處理工廠最需要的維護記錄和元素。我認為這在市場上是越來越新的和不同的。

And then lastly, Scott, we're highlighting this innovation, but innovation is a core pathway as we've talked in the past, of how we drive differentiated growth at Emerson. Accelerated innovation across our businesses is critical. And we've seen that. You see that as we report R&D spend as a percent of sales, then we have stepped that up, and this is an element in one of the results of that.

最後，史考特，我們強調這項創新，但正如我們過去所討論的那樣，創新是我們如何推動艾默生差異化成長的核心途徑。加速我們整個業務的創新至關重要。我們已經看到了這一點。您會看到，當我們報告研發支出佔銷售額的百分比時，我們就增加了支出，這是其中一個結果的一個要素。

Okay. Appreciate the color. Thank you, guys.

好的。欣賞顏色。感謝你們。

Thank you, Scott.

謝謝你，斯科特。

Deane Dray, RBC Capital.

迪恩‧德雷 (Deane Dray)，加拿大皇家銀行資本 (RBC Capital)。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝。大家，早安。

Good morning, Deane.

早上好，迪恩。

I'd like to go back to page 5 and ask whether you're seeing much demand or overlap with the mega projects. I guess the latest count is 440 projects over $1 billion. how much does this funnel overlay to those? And what kind of visibility do you have?

我想回到第 5 頁，詢問您是否看到了很多需求或與大型專案重疊。我猜最新的數字是 440 個超過 10 億美元的項目。這個漏斗與那些漏斗重疊了多少？你有什麼樣的知名度？

So, I'm not quite sure the reference you made, Deane, can you clarify the mega projects you referenced?

所以，我不太確定你提到的內容，Deane，你能澄清一下你提到的大型專案嗎？

Yes. This has been a big focus across the industrials for the past year, looking at North America, non-res construction projects over $1 billion, and it encompasses everything from software to batteries. But it's a way for us to look at all these secular drivers and how are they translating actually into projects. So it's become this benchmark indicator that we're using now. And so that's the reason I'm asking. You're looking at this funnel, it's a global funnel, I get it, but for North America, how much overlap do you have with these so-called mega projects or maybe you have that information.

是的。這是過去一年整個工業界的一大焦點，看看北美，非資源建設項目超過 10 億美元，涵蓋從軟體到電池的一切。但這是我們審視所有這些世俗驅動因素以及它們如何實際轉化為專案的一種方式。所以它就成為我們現在使用的這個基準指標。這就是我問的原因。你正在看這個漏斗，它是一個全球漏斗，我明白了，但對於北美來說，你與這些所謂的大型項目有多少重疊，或者也許你有這些資訊。

Yes, we'll go back and map that, but what I will tell you is in terms of LNG, in terms of energy, in terms of life sciences and frankly, also semiconductors and EVs, we have our own map of all the project activity in North America. We'll go back and map it with what you're referencing, but I will tell you that we are certainly participating and every one of those projects are in our funnel with very, very good win rates. But, it's an action we'll take away and work with Colleen and get that map. But our participation in North America on those large projects remains very solid. And we had a very good level of project activity in North America, particularly in life sciences and power in the control systems business even in the current quarter.

是的，我們會回去繪製地圖，但我要告訴你的是在液化天然氣、能源、生命科學方面，坦白說，還有半導體和電動車，我們有自己的所有項目地圖北美的活動。我們將回去並將其與您所引用的內容進行映射，但我會告訴您，我們肯定會參與，並且每個項目都在我們的漏斗中，並且具有非常非常好的勝率。但是，我們將採取這項行動並與科琳合作並獲得該地圖。但我們對北美這些大型專案的參與仍然非常穩固。即使在本季度，我們在北美的專案活動水平也非常高，特別是在生命科學和控制系統業務的電力領域。

Yes. And as a reminder, that funnel represents our automation content versus what the entirety of a project is out there in the universe. So that's also to keep in mind.

是的。提醒一下，該漏斗代表了我們的自動化內容與宇宙中整個專案的內容。所以這也是要記住的。

Of course. All right. So we'll be looking forward to that. And then second question is a bit of a follow-up from Scott on the balance sheet and the cash. Just can you talk to the decrease in buybacks? I know you said that your use of capital was buying back the Copeland note, but all cash is fungible and just directionally to be pulling away from buybacks. I know it's early to talk about '25, but just where do buybacks fit in your priorities?

當然。好的。所以我們會期待這一點。第二個問題是史考特對資產負債表和現金的一些後續行動。能談談回購的減少嗎？我知道你說過你的資金用途是回購谷輪票據，但所有現金都是可替代的，只是定向退出回購。我知道談論 25 年還為時過早，但回購在您的優先事項中處於什麼位置？

Deane, it's Mike. Yes, buybacks are definitely still in the priority along with the dividend and returning capital to shareholders generally. We will exit the year with the commercial paper paid off and $3.5-plus billion (ph) of cash on the balance sheet. But our capital allocation will remain the same. We will continue to focus on funding our organic growth initiatives, we'll be continue to be committed to the dividend and bolt-on M&A that improves the portfolio. And then, of course, there'll be share buybacks. So yes, we will continue with share buyback. We'll be in the market this quarter at, we think, roughly $125 million, which gets us back to that roughly $500 million a year pace.

迪恩，是麥克。是的，回購肯定仍然是優先考慮的事情，以及股利和向股東返還資本。我們將在這一年結束時償還商業票據，並在資產負債表上留下超過 35 億美元的現金。但我們的資本配置將維持不變。我們將繼續專注於為我們的有機成長計劃提供資金，我們將繼續致力於改善投資組合的股息和補充併購。當然，接下來還會有股票回購。所以，是的，我們將繼續股票回購。我們認為，本季我們將以大約 1.25 億美元的價格進入市場，這將使我們回到每年約 5 億美元的速度。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Operator

操作員

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

史蒂夫圖薩，摩根大通。

Good morning.

早安.

Good morning.

早安.

Could you just talk about like the seasonality of your underlying cash flow putting Aspen aside Typically, I think you have a pretty strong 4Q historically. And you're raising it this year. I guess, how do we think about cash in the fourth quarter and then into next year?

您能否談談您的基本現金流的季節性（將阿斯彭放在一邊）通常情況下，我認為您的第四季度歷史表現相當強勁。今年你將提高它。我想，我們如何看待第四季和明年的現金？

Yes. So we took the guide up to 2.8 which would imply about $800 million coming through in the fourth quarter, which I think is reasonably consistent seeing a fourth quarter increase. So this third quarter was particularly good. And remember, that has Test and Measurement in there, which they had a great quarter and peeled (ph) about $50 million off the balance sheet, which did skew the numbers this year. So we feel good about the 2.8 for the year and looking at the 800, it looks pretty in line with some of the prior years.

是的。因此，我們將指導值提高到 2.8，這意味著第四季度的收入約為 8 億美元，我認為這與第四季的成長相當一致。所以這個第三季特別好。請記住，其中包括測試和測量部門，他們度過了一個出色的季度，並從資產負債表上剝離了約 5000 萬美元，這確實扭曲了今年的數字。所以我們對今年的 2.8 感覺很好，看看 800，它看起來與前幾年非常一致。

And then just looking out to next year, anything in the bridge that's more mechanical that you know of today, whether it's merit increases, bonus payments or anything that's kind of outside the normal operating leverage dynamics that we should be aware of?

然後展望明年，你今天所知道的橋樑中是否有任何更機械的東西，無論是績效增加、獎金支付還是我們應該注意的正常營運槓桿動態之外的任何東西？

I can't think of anything in the kind of run the business. But at corporate, I would say we are looking at a headwind and a tailwind that will largely offset and be a slight headwind. And we will have an increase in pension expense, all things equal, just given the way the deferral accounting works. And then we'll have a lower interest expense because of the Copeland proceeds that come in. Lower interest expense overall with more cash yes. So that should net to a pretty small headwind at corporate.

我想不出經營這家公司的任何事。但在企業方面，我想說，我們正在面臨逆風和順風，這將在很大程度上抵消並成為輕微的逆風。在所有條件相同的情況下，考慮到遞延會計的運作方式，我們的退休金支出將會增加。然後，由於谷輪收益的到來，我們的利息支出將會降低。因此，這應該會給公司帶來相當小的阻力。

Okay. And then one last quick one for you guys. What are the plans for Aspen? Are you guys planning to move on that this year?

好的。然後是給你們的最後一個快速的。阿斯彭有什麼計畫？你們今年打算繼續這樣做嗎？

Not in this fiscal, as I said, we'll continue to evaluate Steve as we go through time here.

正如我所說，在本財年，我們將繼續評估史蒂夫。

Sorry, sorry, I'm already on the 25. I meant fiscal '25. That's I'm already thinking about next year. Sorry about that.

抱歉，抱歉，我已經是 25 號了。我已經在考慮明年的事情了。對於那個很抱歉。

And forward-looking

並且具有前瞻性

No comment there.

那裡沒有評論。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

安迪‧卡普洛維茨，花旗集團。

Hey, good morning, everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

Good morning, Andy.

早安，安迪。

Well, operating leverage for Emerson has continued to be impressive. And obviously, you raised your guidance for this year to mid-40s, which is higher than the algorithm you gave us at your last Investor Day. We know price maybe is fading a bit as a help, maybe supply chain wins are less likely to help in FY '25. I think you just answered Steve's question about sort of other puts and takes, but can you sustain incrementals in the 40s in '25 from what you see today?

艾默生的營運槓桿仍然令人印象深刻。顯然，您將今年的指導提高到了 40 多歲，這高於您在上次投資者日向我們提供的演算法。我們知道價格可能會下降作為幫助，也許供應鏈的勝利不太可能在 25 財年提供幫助。我想你剛剛回答了史蒂夫關於其他看跌期權的問題，但是從你今天看到的情況來看，你能在 25 世紀 40 年代維持增量嗎？

Yes. Thanks for the question. We believe we can. We have a significantly higher margin portfolio today with a 1,000 basis point move over the transformation of Emerson to plus 50% GP portfolio. And I think our expectation certainly is that next year will be very similar to the leverage rate of this year.

是的。謝謝你的提問。我們相信我們可以。今天，我們的利潤率投資組合顯著提高，艾默生轉型為 GP 投資組合的比例提高了 1,000 個基點，增加了 50%。我認為我們的預期肯定是明年的槓桿率將與今年非常相似。

Great. And then, Lal, you mentioned you have decent visibility towards, I think, the low end of your 4% to 7% due to cycle revenue growth as an initial read into FY '25. I guess what do you need to see to achieve that kind of growth for instance?

偉大的。然後，拉爾，你提到你對 4% 到 7% 的低端有很好的可見度，這是由於週期收入增長作為對 25 財年的初步解讀。我想你需要看到什麼才能實現這種成長？

Yes, go ahead, Ram.

是的，繼續吧，拉姆。

Yes. So I mean, obviously, what we're seeing right now is based on the order rates that the second half of this year will generate and that points to the low end of the 4% to 7%. Now what has to change, obviously, at the areas we're really focused on is pace of discrete recovery, the amplitude of the recovery and then China. And now the North American KOB3 or the pace of business is something we're watching. We're not really concerned. Our process hybrid business continues to have order rates of mid-single digits. The capital cycle still remains strong.

是的。所以我的意思是，顯然，我們現在看到的情況是基於今年下半年將產生的訂單率，這指向 4% 至 7% 的低端。顯然，現在我們真正關注的領域必須改變的是離散復甦的步伐、復甦的幅度，然後是中國。現在我們正在關注北美的《KOB3》或業務節奏。我們並不真正擔心。我們的流程混合業務的訂單率繼續保持在中個位數。資本週期依然強勁。

So that we feel very good about. It's really the pace and amplitude of discrete recovery in China is going to dictate how we guide into next year as we come off that low single-digit order growth we've seen in the second half of 2024.

讓我們感覺非常好。事實上，隨著我們擺脫 2024 年下半年低個位數的訂單成長，中國離散復甦的速度和幅度將決定我們明年的指導方針。

Lal, you've seeing China stable at low levels? Or is it getting worse? What's China...

拉爾，你看到中國穩定在低水準嗎？或者情況正在變得更糟？中國是什麼...

I'd suggest stable, Andy, at this point.

安迪，此時我建議保持穩定。

Excellent. Thank you.

出色的。謝謝。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

朱利安米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

Good morning, Lal. Maybe where I wanted to start was just around the different end market verticals because I suppose the lowered orders guide and the slight miss on sales in Q3. Was that solely tied to discrete automation? Because I suppose listening to an automation peer half an hour ago, they do talk about weaker energy transition CapEx, weaker chemicals and mining spend and Aspen last night referred to some weakness in those types of process verticals as well. So just trying to understand that element of sort of process versus discrete the outlook there?

早上好，拉爾。也許我想從不同的終端市場垂直領域開始，因為我認為訂單指南的降低和第三季銷售的輕微下滑。這僅與離散自動化相關嗎？因為我想半小時前聽一位自動化同行的講話，他們確實談論了能源轉型資本支出疲軟、化學品和採礦支出疲軟，阿斯彭昨晚也提到了這些類型的流程垂直領域的一些弱點。那麼，只是想了解某種流程的要素與離散的前景嗎？

Yes. No, I'll answer and let Ram add some color as well from his perspective. Certainly, we continue to see strong capital formation cycle here, particularly as it relates to energy, energy transition, power generation, life sciences, metals and mining. And that is relatively broad from Western Europe through the United States and into Middle East and Latin America. And I don't have a whole lot of concern today around those markets.

是的。不，我會回答並讓拉姆也從他的角度添加一些色彩。當然，我們繼續看到強勁的資本形成週期，特別是與能源、能源轉型、發電、生命科學、金屬和採礦相關的資本形成週期。從西歐到美國，再到中東和拉丁美洲，範圍相對廣泛。今天我對這些市場並沒有太多擔憂。

I highlighted a few specific wins, but there are others in that $350 million bucket that we won. So mid-single-digit order growth in process and hybrid in the quarter, low single digit for the company impacted by the discrete automation business in the discrete orders, which remains negative to the quarter. Ram?

我強調了一些具體的勝利，但在我們贏得的 3.5 億美元的獎金中還有其他勝利。因此，本季流程和混合訂單中的個位數成長，受到離散訂單中離散自動化業務影響的公司的個位數較低，這對本季仍然是負面的。記憶體？

Yes, you said it. I mean I think the cap for us, energy, power, life sciences is driving a majority of our capital project wins as well as the momentum in our process hybrid business. Certainly, we are not a big player in hybrid markets like food and beverage, which could be the dynamic you're referencing in terms of some slowdown. But our life sciences business continues to be very good. Our metals and mining business continues to be very good. So no slowdown, we're not seeing any kind of slowdown in that area.

是的，你說過。我的意思是，我認為我們能源、電力、生命科學的上限正在推動我們大部分資本項目的勝利以及我們流程混合業務的勢頭。當然，我們在食品和飲料等混合市場中並不是一個重要的參與者，這可能是您所指的經濟放緩的動態。但我們的生命科學業務仍然非常好。我們的金屬和採礦業務仍然非常好。所以沒有放緩，我們沒有看到該領域有任何放緩。

But the area we're watching very carefully, as I referenced, is the pace of discrete recovery, particularly markets like semiconductors and EVs which impact NI, but also our markets like automotive, which impact our broader discrete automation business.

但正如我所提到的，我們正在非常仔細地關注的領域是離散復甦的步伐，特別是影響 NI 的半導體和電動車等市場，以及汽車等影響我們更廣泛的離散自動化業務的市場。

Now the one segment of Test and Measurement, where we've seen good momentum is aerospace and defense, driven by government spending. It's 25% of their overall mix. So that certainly come out strong, and that's driven growth in North America, but we are yet to see sustained recoveries in semis and EVs, which are markets we're watching closely.

現在，在政府支出的推動下，測試和測量領域中我們看到了良好勢頭的一個領域是航空航太和國防。這是他們整體組合的 25%。因此，這肯定會表現強勁，並推動北美的成長，但我們尚未看到半成品和電動車的持續復甦，這是我們密切關注的市場。

Thanks very much. And then just my follow-up, somewhat related. But if I look at your backlog, I think that was $7.4 billion at the end of June, so sort of down a little bit sequentially and down a little bit from where it was in December as well. When you think about that backlog, it's moving around entry-year on seasonal factors as much as anything else. Do you still feel confident about sort of decent backlog growth as you enter fiscal '25?

非常感謝。然後是我的後續行動，有些相關。但如果我看看你們的積壓訂單，我認為 6 月底的金額為 74 億美元，因此比 12 月份的情況有所下降，也比 12 月份的情況有所下降。當你考慮到積壓的情況時，你會發現它在進入年份時會受到季節性因素的影響，就像其他因素一樣。當您進入 25 財年時，您仍然對可觀的積壓成長充滿信心嗎？

Yes, we do. That backlog reduction for us, frankly, about $100 million, it was all in Test and Measurement. Our backlog in the base Emerson business held effectively flat. Now we typically see a backlog reduction in Q4, but it will be up year-over-year, and we feel pretty good about backlog levels as we enter 2025.

是的，我們願意。坦白說，我們的積壓工作減少了大約 1 億美元，這一切都歸功於測試和測量。我們艾默生基礎業務的積壓訂單實際上持平。現在，我們通常會看到第四季度的積壓數量減少，但它會比去年同期上升，而且隨著進入 2025 年，我們對積壓水平感到非常滿意。

And I would add to the earlier comment about the capital formation, Interestingly, in the quarter, the control systems business actually had a book-to-bill above 1 record order...

我想補充一下之前關於資本形成的評論，有趣的是，在本季度，控制系統業務的訂單出貨量實際上超過了 1 個創紀錄的訂單...

Record levels. And for the full year, we expect Emerson at right around 1.

記錄水平。對於全年而言，我們預計艾默生的成長率約為 1。

Book-to-bill.

預訂到帳單。

Yes.

是的。

That's great. Thank you.

那太棒了。謝謝。

Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

布雷特·林澤，瑞穗。

Hi. Good morning. Thank you. Just wanted to come back to the discrete comments around pace and the amplitude of the recovery. As that business comes back, should we think about the operating leverage above the 45% framework given some of the cost containment and some of the actions you've taken there?

你好。早安.謝謝。只是想回到關於復甦速度和幅度的離散評論。隨著該業務的恢復，考慮到一些成本控制和您在那裡採取的一些行動，我們是否應該考慮高於 45% 框架的營運槓桿？

Yes. I would say for our discrete automation business, it will be right around in the 40s. Certainly, the other business that's exposed to the discrete end markets, Test and Measurement, given that 75-plus percent GPs will be much higher.

是的。我想說，對於我們的離散自動化業務來說，這個時間將在 1940 年代左右。當然，考慮到 75% 以上的 GP，涉及離散終端市場的其他業務（測試和測量）的價格會高得多。

Okay. Got it. And then just on power generation. So you've talked about some of the momentum there in that business. I think the grid results at Aspen look pretty encouraging. Any update on the strategic funnel and how that tracked through the quarter and some of the activity you're working on there?

好的。知道了。然後就是發電。您已經談到了該行業的一些發展勢頭。我認為阿斯彭的發車成績看起來非常令人鼓舞。有關戰略管道的任何更新以及整個季度的追蹤情況以及您正在進行的一些活動嗎？

Yes. I mean, Aspen clearly referenced the capital formation in grid modernization, which is fundamentally transmission and distribution investments. So our exposure to the T&D side is through OSI at Aspen. On the power generation side, which is the Aviation business, that project funnel continues to build both in North America, Europe, but also we're having a very, very strong year in China interestingly.

是的。我的意思是，阿斯彭明確提到了電網現代化中的資本形成，這從根本上來說是輸電和配電投資。因此，我們透過阿斯彭的 OSI 接觸到 T&D 方面的業務。在發電方面，即航空業務，該項目漏斗繼續在北美、歐洲建立，但有趣的是，我們在中國度過了非常非常強勁的一年。

So overall, the generation capacity that is being invested in across the globe continues to be robust and the innovation that we're driving with the likes of Ovation 4.0 as well as our Ovation Green that is positioned for renewable investments. The activity there is very robust. Lal referenced that one project in India with a very strategic investment that's happening in India and the renewable space is just an example of the types of activities we're involved in with the Ovation platform.

因此，總體而言，全球投資的發電能力仍然強勁，我們透過 Ovation 4.0 以及定位於再生能源投資的 Ovation Green 等產品推動創新。那裡的活動非常活躍。 Lal 提到，在印度和再生能源領域進行的一個具有非常戰略性投資的印度項目只是我們透過 Ovation 平台參與的活動類型的一個例子。

Okay, great. Appreciate the color.

好的，太好了。欣賞顏色。

Christopher Glynn, Oppenheimer.

克里斯托弗·格林，奧本海默。

Thanks. Good morning. I had a question on the MRO. Curious, how that performed specifically in the quarter, sorry if I didn't catch it. But wondering if there's an impact of some customer inventory rebalancing, if you're seeing any of that from maybe accelerated lot sizes in prior years? Or if end markets are mainly what you're seeing on the MRO side?

謝謝。早安.我有一個關於 MRO 的問題。很好奇，這個季度的具體表現如何，如果我沒聽清楚，抱歉。但想知道某些客戶庫存重新平衡是否會產生影響，您是否從前幾年可能加速的批量規模中看到了任何影響？或者，您所看到的終端市場是否主要是 MRO 方面？

Yes. This is Lal. I certainly, in totality, MRO didn't really change a whole lot. It remains at 64% of the revenue in the quarter, which is relatively consistent with where we've been and well within our expectation for the year. Having said that, there were a few ebbs and flows, as I discussed on the call, European MRO was very strong in the quarter. North America MRO was softer in the quarter. We haven't seen anything there that is alarming in any way.

是的。這是拉爾。當然，總的來說，MRO 並沒有真正改變太多。它仍然佔本季收入的 64%，這與我們的情況相對一致，也很好地符合我們對今年的預期。話雖如此，正如我在電話會議中討論的那樣，有一些起伏，歐洲 MRO 在本季度非常強勁。本季北美 MRO 較為疲軟。我們在那裡沒有看到任何令人擔憂的事情。

We're not a heavy inventory-driven company from a distribution or customer level perspective. Our equipment is generally bought and put into operation shortly thereafter. And so consequently, and nothing alarming on the MRO side. But again, strength in Europe, weakness in North America or softness in North America characterized the quarter for MRO.

從分銷或客戶層面的角度來看，我們不是一家重度庫存驅動的公司。我們的設備一般是在購買後不久就投入運作的。因此，MRO 方面並沒有什麼令人擔憂的。但同樣，歐洲的強勁、北美的疲軟或北美的疲軟是本季度 MRO 的特徵。

Yes. And just to build on that a little bit. The North American softness, you'll recall in prior quarters, we had talked about how, particularly in the measurement and analytical business, there was some strength, and we saw a little bit of that reverse in the quarter. But as Lal said, nothing concerning.

是的。只是在此基礎上再進一步。您會記得在前幾個季度中，北美市場表現疲軟，我們曾討論過，特別是在測量和分析業務方面，北美市場表現出一定的優勢，而我們在本季度看到了一些逆轉。但正如拉爾所說，沒有什麼關係。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Nicole Deblase, Deutsche Bank.

妮可‧德布萊斯，德意志銀行。

Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys.

是的，謝謝。早上好傢伙。

Morning.

早晨。

Maybe just starting with the T&M business. It sounds like the synergy progress is going a bit better than planned. Are you guys actually raising the synergy guidance there? Or is it more about timing, like coming through faster than expected? And maybe any updated thoughts on synergies in fiscal '24?

也許只是從測試與測量業務開始。聽起來協同進展比計劃的要好一些。你們真的在那裡提出了協同指導嗎？還是更多的是關於時機，例如比預期更快通過？也許對 24 財年的協同效應有任何最新的想法？

Good morning. No, look, we raised the guide a few quarters ago. We continue to execute across that pace. So no change to the synergy guide, but we are maintaining the pace certainly to be able to deliver these results.

早安.不，看，我們幾個季度前就提出了該指南。我們繼續按照這個速度執行。因此，協同指南沒有改變，但我們肯定會保持步伐，以便能夠實現這些結果。

Okay. Got it. Thanks, Lal. And then if I could ask a little bit more detailed question. The discrete automation comps do get a lot easier in the fourth quarter. Is it possible that organic revenue could turn positive? Or do you think that that's more of a 1.25 (ph) event at this point?

好的。知道了。謝謝，拉爾。然後我是否可以問一個更詳細的問題。離散自動化競爭在第四季確實變得更加容易。有機收入有可能轉正嗎？還是您認為此時這更像是 1.25 (ph) 事件？

Go ahead, Ram.

來吧，拉姆。

Yes, it's a 1.25. I think orders turned positive in Q4. At this point, we're planning on a first half 25% recovery in sales for the discrete automation business.

是的，這是1.25。我認為第四季訂單轉正。目前，我們計劃上半年離散自動化業務的銷售額將恢復 25%。

Thank you. I'll pass it on.

謝謝。我會把它傳遞下去。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Operator

操作員

Well, this concludes our question-and-answer session and today's event. I would like to thank the management team for their time today, and thank you all for attending today's presentation. At this time, you may disconnect your lines. Thank you, and have a great day, everyone.

好了，我們的問答環節和今天的活動就到此結束了。我要感謝管理團隊今天抽出寶貴的時間，並感謝大家參加今天的示範。此時，您可以斷開線路。謝謝大家，祝大家有美好的一天。