艾默生電氣 (EMR) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Emerson First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加艾默生 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Colleen Mettler, Vice President of Investor Relations at Emerson. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給我們的東道主、艾默生投資者關係副總裁科琳·梅特勒 (Colleen Mettler)。請繼續。

Good morning and thank you for joining us for Emerson's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Today, I am joined by President and Chief Executive Officer, Lal Karsanbhai; Chief Financial Officer, Mike Baughman; and Chief Operating Officer, Ram Krishnan. As always, I encourage everyone to follow along with the slide presentation, which is available on our website.

早安，感謝您參加艾默生 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。今天，總裁兼執行長 Lal Karsanbhai 也加入了我的行列。財務長麥克·鮑曼；和首席營運長拉姆·克里希南。一如既往，我鼓勵大家關注我們網站上的幻燈片簡報。

Please join me on Slide 2. This presentation may include forward-looking statements, which contain a degree of business risk and uncertainty. Please take time to read the safe harbor statement and note on non-GAAP measures.

請和我一起觀看投影片 2。本簡報可能包含前瞻性陳述，其中包含一定程度的商業風險和不確定性。請花時間閱讀安全港聲明和有關非公認會計準則措施的說明。

I will now pass the call over to Emerson's President and CEO, Lal Karsanbhai, for his opening remarks.

現在我將把電話轉給艾默生總裁兼執行長 Lal Karsanbhai，讓他致開幕詞。

Thank you, Colleen, and good morning. I'd like to begin by thanking the Emerson team for delivering a strong start to 2024. I'd also like to extend my appreciation to the Emerson Board of Directors and to our customers for your continued confidence in us. Our first quarter results demonstrate the underlying strength of the markets we serve, the meaningfulness of our differentiated technology and the relentless execution of our global teams.

謝謝你，科琳，早安。首先，我要感謝艾默生團隊為 2024 年帶來了良好的開局。我還要感謝艾默生董事會和我們的客戶對我們的持續信任。我們第一季的業績證明了我們所服務的市場的潛在實力、我們差異化技術的意義以及我們全球團隊的不懈執行力。

Please turn to Slide 3. Q1 was a strong start for Emerson as we continued our focus on executing and driving value creation for our shareholders. The demand environment remains healthy for process and hybrid markets. We continue to see projects moving forward at a healthy pace in markets like chemical, LNG, life sciences, metals and mining, and sustainability and decarbonization even in the face of higher interest rates, ongoing geopolitical challenges and upcoming elections in key global markets, including the U.S.

請參閱投影片 3。第一季對艾默生來說是一個好的開端，因為我們繼續專注於執行和推動為股東創造價值。流程和混合市場的需求環境仍然健康。即使面臨更高的利率、持續的地緣政治挑戰以及全球主要市場即將舉行的選舉，我們仍然看到化工、液化天然氣、生命科學、金屬和採礦以及可持續發展和脫碳等市場的項目以健康的步伐向前推進，包括美國。

Our customers' 2024 CapEx budgets are shaping up constructively and are largely supportive of the demand environment we are experiencing. This robust environment, along with continued execution by our teams, is a key contributor to the Q1 performance. Q1 orders, sales, operating leverage and adjusted earnings all exceeded expectations, providing confidence to increase our full year guidance.

我們客戶的 2024 年資本支出預算正在建設性地制定，並且在很大程度上支持我們正在經歷的需求環境。這種強大的環境，加上我們團隊的持續執行，是第一季業績的關鍵貢獻者。第一季訂單、銷售額、營運槓桿和調整後收益均超出預期，為我們提高全年指引提供了信心。

This performance reflects our ability to win with a focused approach to our growth platforms and through continued investments in innovation. It is also a testament to our new differentiated portfolio with leading technology, strong profit margins and exposure to the important global secular growth markets. This is exhibited by our gross margin and adjusted EBITDA expansion since 2021. Our business is well positioned to capture investments in areas like energy security and affordability, sustainability and decarbonization, digital transformation and nearshoring.

這一業績反映了我們透過專注於成長平台和持續投資創新來取勝的能力。這也證明了我們新的差異化產品組合擁有領先的技術、強勁的利潤率以及對全球重要長期成長市場的曝險。我們自2021 年以來的毛利率和調整後EBITDA 擴張就證明了這一點。我們的業務處於有利位置，可以在能源安全和可負擔性、永續性和脫碳、數位轉型和近岸外包等領域獲得投資。

Regarding our portfolio. We continue to reiterate that the large parts of our portfolio transformation are complete, and we do not expect any sizable transactions in 2024. This is the portfolio we designed from beginning, and we are excited to be executing with this set of businesses. On that note, Test & Measurement is executing well and had a strong first quarter, ahead of our expectations. The quarter performance and an acceleration of synergies provide more confidence for our full year expectations from the business.

關於我們的投資組合。我們繼續重申，我們的投資組合轉型的大部分已經完成，我們預計 2024 年不會發生任何大規模交易。這是我們從一開始就設計的投資組合，我們很高興能夠執行這組業務。在這一點上，測試與測量部門執行良好，第一季表現強勁，超出了我們的預期。季度業績和綜效的加速為我們全年的業務預期提供了更多信心。

Please turn to Slide 4. Emerson's Q1 exceeded all expectations. Underlying orders continue to grow in the mid-single-digit range with 4% growth in Q1. Process and hybrid markets were strong, and discrete orders remained down as expected. Multiple LNG projects booked in the quarter, specifically in Europe and the Middle East. Life sciences activity was also strong across the globe with large project wins in the U.S., Canada, Europe and Asia.

請參閱投影片 4。艾默生的第一季超出了所有預期。基礎訂單繼續以中個位數成長，第一季成長 4%。流程和混合市場表現強勁，離散訂單仍如預期下降。本季預訂了多個液化天然氣項目，特別是在歐洲和中東。全球範圍內的生命科學活動也很活躍，在美國、加拿大、歐洲和亞洲贏得了大型計畫。

The Q1 growth was also supported by some project activity shifting from Q2 to Q1. As you all know, orders can move around quarter-to-quarter, but we still expect low single-digit order growth in the first half of 2024 and mid-single-digit order growth for the full year as discrete demand improves in the second half. Underlying sales for the quarter grew 10%, again, led by process and hybrid markets exceeding our expectations. Energy transition markets and metals and mining were both bright spots in the quarter as we executed numerous projects across Europe, Latin America and Australia.

第一季的成長也受到一些專案活動從第二季轉移到第一季的支持。眾所周知，訂單可能會出現季度環比變化，但我們仍然預計 2024 年上半年訂單將出現低個位數增長，而隨著下半年離散需求的改善，全年訂單將出現中個位數增長一半。在流程和混合市場的帶動下，本季的基礎銷售額再次成長了 10%，超出了我們的預期。能源轉型市場以及金屬和採礦業都是本季的亮點，我們在歐洲、拉丁美洲和澳洲執行了許多專案。

This volume, combined with favorable price/cost and a strong operational execution, resulted in 41% operating leverage in Q1, ahead of our mid-30s expectations. Adjusted EPS was $1.22, up 56% versus 2023. And free cash flow was $367 million, up 51%. Mike Baughman will go through the specifics shortly, but we are excited about our first quarter performance.

這一銷量，加上有利的價格/成本和強大的營運執行力，導致第一季的營運槓桿達到 41%，超出了我們 30 多歲的預期。調整後每股收益為 1.22 美元，較 2023 年成長 56%。自由現金流為 3.67 億美元，成長 51%。麥克鮑曼（Mike Baughman）將很快介紹具體細節，但我們對第一季度的表現感到興奮。

On Slide 5, our current strategic project funnel grew by approximately $200 million to $10.4 billion, and our growth programs continue to represent nearly 2/3 of this funnel. The continued expansion of the funnel is promising with existing customers and new entrants continuing to plan and budget for capital projects in the coming years.

在投影片 5 上，我們目前的策略項目漏斗成長了約 2 億美元，達到 104 億美元，而我們的成長計畫繼續佔該漏斗的近 2/3。漏斗的持續擴張是有希望的，現有客戶和新進業者將繼續為未來幾年的資本項目進行規劃和預算。

In the first quarter, Emerson was awarded approximately $400 million of project content with a little more than half from our growth programs, including 3 noteworthy deals in energy transition. First, Emerson was selected by DG Fuels in Louisiana to provide our comprehensive automation portfolio, including advanced sensing, control systems and optimization software, for the production of sustainable aviation fuels. These fuels can be used in existing aviation and vehicle engines. And DG Fuels has previously announced agreements with aviation leaders, including Air France, KLM, Delta and Airbus.

第一季度，艾默生獲得了約 4 億美元的專案內容，其中超過一半來自我們的成長計劃，其中包括能源轉型領域的 3 項值得注意的交易。首先，路易斯安那州的 DG Fuels 選擇艾默生提供全面的自動化產品組合，包括先進的感測、控制系統和優化軟體，用於永續航空燃料的生產。這些燃料可用於現有的航空和車輛引擎。 DG Fuels 先前已宣布與法國航空、荷航、達美航空和空中巴士等航空業領導達成協議。

Next, Emerson was chosen to automate a lithium-ion recycling process based on our metals and mining expertise and experience throughout the lithium value chain. Emerson will provide SungEel HiTech, a specialist in lithium battery recycling in Korea with advanced automation solutions for safe and reliable operations at its newest facility that is capable of supplying materials for approximately 400,000 electric vehicles each year.

接下來，艾默生被選中根據我們在整個鋰價值鏈中的金屬和採礦專業知識和經驗來實現鋰離子回收過程的自動化。艾默生將為韓國鋰電池回收專家 SungEel HiTech 提供先進的自動化解決方案，以確保其最新工廠的安全可靠運行，該工廠每年能夠為約 40 萬輛電動車供應材料。

Lastly, Emerson and AspenTech were jointly selected for a large-scale LNG liquefaction facility in the Middle East. The project win represents Emerson's strong presence in the region, including an already sizable LNG installed base. The win is also recognition of the collaboration and synergies between Emerson and AspenTech as Emerson's DeltaV was selected along with AspenTech's HISA simulation, showing the power and differentiation of our combined portfolio.

最後，艾默生和 AspenTech 聯合入選中東大型液化天然氣液化設施。該計畫的勝利代表了艾默生在該地區的強大影響力，包括已經相當大的液化天然氣安裝基地。這場勝利也是對艾默生和 AspenTech 之間合作和協同效應的認可，因為艾默生的 DeltaV 與 AspenTech 的 HISA 模擬一起被選中，展示了我們組合產品組合的強大功能和差異化優勢。

As we look at the continued needs of Europe and its reliance on gas imports, the Middle East and Africa will play a pivotal role in gas exports. Emerson is uniquely positioned with our local expertise, manufacturing and installed base to serve the region in its LNG growth.

當我們考慮歐洲的持續需求及其對天然氣進口的依賴時，中東和非洲將在天然氣出口中發揮關鍵作用。艾默生憑藉我們的本地專業知識、製造和安裝基地處於獨特的地位，可以為該地區的液化天然氣增長提供服務。

These are just 3 examples of Emerson's continued leadership position in energy transition markets, spanning from established markets like LNG to newer markets like sustainable aviation fuels.

這些只是艾默生在能源轉型市場中持續保持領導地位的三個例子，從液化天然氣等成熟市場到永續航空燃料等新興市場。

Turning to Slide 6. We remain focused on accelerating innovation for profitable growth. Our recent innovations and our continued technology leadership were recognized by IoT Breakthrough, who named Emerson its 2024 Industrial IoT Company of the Year. IoT Breakthrough received over 4,300 nominations for the 2024 competition, and Emerson was selected based on our unique ability to effectively leverage decades of expertise in digitalization and automation to help the industry transform operations.

轉向幻燈片 6。我們仍然專注於加速創新以實現獲利成長。我們最近的創新和持續的技術領先地位得到了 IoT Breakthrough 的認可，並將艾默生評為 2024 年度工業物聯網公司。 IoT Breakthrough 在 2024 年競賽中獲得了 4,300 多項提名，艾默生因其獨特的能力而入選，因為我們有效利用數十年在數位化和自動化方面的專業知識來幫助行業實現營運轉型。

Among the innovations recognized were Emerson's Ovation green portfolio for manning renewable power assets; Florida cloud solutions to continuously monitor critical production and energy efficiency data in factories; one-click transfer software capable of accelerating the life sciences drug development process; and numerous releases focused on enabling the boundless automation vision, including the DeltaV edge environment. As you recall, boundless automation is Emerson's vision for a cohesive automation ecosystem from device to enterprise.

獲得認可的創新包括艾默生用於管理再生能源資產的 Ovation 綠色產品組合；佛羅裡達雲端解決方案永續監控工廠的關鍵生產和能源效率數據；能夠加速生命科學藥物開發過程的一鍵傳輸軟體；以及許多專注於實現無限自動化願景的版本，包括 DeltaV 邊緣環境。您還記得，無限自動化是艾默生對從設備到企業的緊密自動化生態系統的願景。

Integrating operations with a flexible automation architecture allows users to have access to all their data, enabling analytics and performance improvements across numerous domains like production, safety, reliability and sustainability. All these innovations will be on display at Emerson's upcoming Users Exchange at the end of February. Emerson Exchange in Dusseldorf, Germany will feature customer case studies, industry sessions and a technology exhibit demonstrating Emerson's leading automation portfolio for process and hybrid industries.

將操作與靈活的自動化架構相集成，使用戶能夠存取所有數據，從而在生產、安全、可靠性和永續性等眾多領域實現分析和效能改進。所有這些創新都將在艾默生即將於二月底舉行的用戶交流會上展示。位於德國杜塞爾多夫的艾默生交流中心將舉辦客戶案例研究、產業會議和技術展覽，展示艾默生面向製程和混合產業的領先自動化產品組合。

New this year are industry-focused exhibits showcasing Emerson's complete solutions for emerging industries like hydrogen, biofuels and carbon capture in addition to growth markets like life sciences and metals and mining.

今年新增的以產業為重點的展覽展示了艾默生針對氫、生物燃料和碳捕獲等新興產業以及生命科學、金屬和採礦等成長市場的完整解決方案。

Please turn to Slide 7 for an update on our synergy progress in Test & Measurement. We effectively use the time between signing and closing to plan all integration and synergy activities, utilizing a world-class M&A methodology as part of our Emerson Management System. Given the strong team collaboration and current market environment, we have accelerated those synergy activities.

請參閱投影片 7，以了解我們在測試與測量方面的協同進展的最新資訊。我們有效地利用簽署和交割之間的時間來規劃所有整合和協同活動，並利用世界一流的併購方法作為我們艾默生管理系統的一部分。鑑於強大的團隊協作和當前的市場環境，我們加速了這些協同活動。

In the first quarter, we worked closely with the new Test & Measurement leadership team to aggressively address public company and corporate costs while rapidly implementing Phase 1 of our Sales & Marketing and Research & Development transformations. We are also leveraging our Emerson Management System and best practices to progress operational execution and commercial excellence at Test & Measurement. This includes trade working capital, price realization and procurement efficiencies in logistics and direct materials.

在第一季度，我們與新的測試與測量領導團隊密切合作，積極解決上市公司和企業成本問題，同時快速實施銷售與行銷以及研發轉型的第一階段。我們也利用艾默生管理系統和最佳實踐來推進測試與測量的營運執行和商業卓越。這包括貿易營運資本、價格實現以及物流和直接材料的採購效率。

These efforts put Test & Measurement ahead of schedule and give us the confidence to increase the cost synergy target to $185 million, which we now expect to achieve by the end of 2026, 2 years faster than originally expected. This includes approximately $80 million expected to be realized in '24. Our planned cost to achieve these synergies increases slightly to $165 million with the majority of the spend expected in the first 2 years. We still expect adjusted segment EBITDA to reach approximately 31% by year 5 as sales grow on the reset cost base.

這些努力使測試與測量提前了計劃，並使我們有信心將成本協同目標提高到 1.85 億美元，我們現在預計到 2026 年底實現這一目標，比最初預期快了 2 年。其中包括預計在 2024 年實現的約 8,000 萬美元。我們實現這些協同效應的計畫成本略有增加，達到 1.65 億美元，其中大部分支出預計在前兩年內完成。我們仍然預計，隨著銷售額在重置成本基礎上成長，調整後的部門 EBITDA 將在第 5 年達到約 31%。

I'll now turn the call over to Mike Baughman to go through more detail on the quarter performance, including Test & Measurement and our updated 2024 guide.

現在，我將把電話轉給 Mike Baughman，以了解有關本季度業績的更多詳細信息，包括測試和測量以及我們更新的 2024 年指南。

Thanks, Lal, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 8, where we have summarized our first quarter financial results. Underlying sales growth was 10%, led by our process and hybrid businesses. Intelligent devices and software and control grew 11% and 9%, respectively. Discrete automation was down low single digits as expected. All world areas were strong with Asia, Middle East and Africa up 15%, Europe up 10% and the Americas up 8%. Price contributed approximately 2 points of growth.

謝謝拉爾，大家早安。請參閱投影片 8，我們總結了第一季的財務表現。在我們的流程和混合業務的推動下，基本銷售額成長了 10%。智慧型設備和軟體與控制分別成長11%和9%。如預期，離散自動化下降了低個位數。全球所有地區均表現強勁，其中亞洲、中東和非洲成長 15%，歐洲成長 10%，美洲成長 8%。價格貢獻了約2個百分點的成長。

Test & Measurement, which is outside of the underlying sales measure, contributed $382 million, exceeding expectations for the quarter. I will discuss Test & Measurement performance in more detail on the next slide. Backlog is now $7.6 billion, which is up $500 million versus September 30 when excluding Test & Measurement. Emerson adjusted segment EBITDA margin improved 190 basis points to 24.6%.

測試與測量（不屬於基本銷售指標）貢獻了 3.82 億美元，超出了本季的預期。我將在下一張投影片中更詳細地討論測試和測量效能。積壓訂單目前為 76 億美元，與 9 月 30 日（不包括測試與測量）相比增加了 5 億美元。艾默生調整後的部門 EBITDA 利潤率提高了 190 個基點，達到 24.6%。

Volume, margin-accretive price/cost, which included net material deflation, ongoing productivity programs and the Test & Measurement performance, all contributed to the margin improvement. Operating leverage excluding Test & Measurement was 41%. Adjusted EPS grew 56% to $1.22, up $0.44 and is a strong start to the year. Double-digit sales growth and 41% operating leverage contributed the $0.33 of operational improvement year-over-year.

產量、利潤成長的價格/成本（包括淨材料通貨緊縮、持續的生產力計劃以及測試和測量性能）都有助於利潤率的提高。不包括測試與測量的營運槓桿率為 41%。調整後每股收益成長 56%，達到 1.22 美元，上漲 0.44 美元，是今年的強勁開局。兩位數的銷售成長和 41% 的營運槓桿為營運改善帶來了 0.33 美元的同比增長。

Nonoperating items contributed $0.11 year-on-year mainly due to lower stock compensation, which contributed $0.08 versus Q1 of 2023. As a reminder, all legacy mark-to-market stock compensation plans are now complete. Also contributing to the nonoperating items were interest income of 4% and share count, which contributed $0.02. Tax was a $0.03 headwind.

非營運項目年比貢獻 0.11 美元，主要是由於股票薪酬下降，與 2023 年第一季度相比貢獻了 0.08 美元。需要提醒的是，所有舊的按市值計價的股票薪酬計劃現已完成。對非經營項目的貢獻還包括 4% 的利息收入和股份數量，貢獻了 0.02 美元。稅收是 0.03 美元的阻力。

Lastly, free cash flow for the quarter of $367 million was up 51% versus the prior year. This was in line with our expectations for the quarter as we saw modest improvement in work capital year-on-year. Headwinds related to acquisition fees and restructuring impacted the quarter by approximately $100 million, and CapEx was up $18 million year-on-year.

最後，本季自由現金流為 3.67 億美元，比上年成長 51%。這符合我們對本季的預期，因為我們看到營運資本較去年同期略有改善。與收購費用和重組相關的不利因素對該季度造成了約 1 億美元的影響，資本支出比去年同期增加了 1,800 萬美元。

AspenTech sales and ACV were slightly weaker than our expectations for Q1 driven mainly by a delay in renewal from one customer. This slight miss, however, did not have a material impact on total Emerson results versus our expectations. For the quarter, ACV grew close to 10%. And the AspenTech team continues to see strong market dynamics in power transmission and distribution and sustainability and decarbonization while at the same time utilizing Emerson relationships to win in LNG, life sciences and power generation.

AspenTech 的銷售額和 ACV 略弱於我們對第一季的預期，主要是由於一位客戶續訂的延遲。然而，與我們的預期相比，這一輕微的失誤並沒有對艾默生的整體結果產生重大影響。本季度，ACV 成長接近 10%。 AspenTech 團隊繼續看到輸配電、永續發展和脫碳領域強勁的市場動態，同時利用艾默生關係贏得液化天然氣、生命科學和發電領域的勝利。

Turning to Slide 9, we will dive deeper into the first quarter performance of Test & Measurement. Orders were in line with expectations, down 17% year-over-year but showed high single-digit sequential improvement led by the strength in aerospace. There was continued softness in semiconductor and automotive markets and ongoing weakness in China. We continue to launch orders as a key indicator and still expect to turn in the second half on easier comps.

轉向投影片 9，我們將更深入地了解測試與測量第一季的表現。訂單量符合預期，年減 17%，但在航空航太領域的強勁帶動下，訂單量出現了較高的個位數環比增長。半導體和汽車市場持續疲軟，中國市場持續疲軟。我們繼續將發布訂單作為關鍵指標，並且仍然預計下半年的情況會更加輕鬆。

Sales for the quarter were $382 million, beating initial expectations. This was driven by stronger backlog conversion, lower-than-expected sales during the 11-day stub period prior to closing and a little conservatism in the guide, given the timing of the close. Sales were $401 million, including the sales in the stub period.

該季度銷售額為 3.82 億美元，超出最初預期。這是由於積壓訂單轉換強勁、交割前 11 天存根期間的銷售額低於預期以及考慮到交割時間，指南中的保守態度所致。銷售額為 4.01 億美元，包括存續期的銷售額。

Test & Measurement adjusted segment EBITDA margins were 26.5% in the quarter, beating expectations due to higher sales, better-than-expected gross margins and slightly higher cost synergies. The Q1 adjusted segment EBITDA margin benefited from lower-than-expected sales in the stub period against ratable fixed costs. Test & Measurement contributed $0.13 in the first quarter, including stock compensation expense and using the Test & Measurement tax rate, which is in the mid-teens. The stub period dynamic discussed earlier benefited the adjusted EPS contribution by approximately $0.02.

本季測試與測量部門調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 26.5%，由於銷售額增加、毛利率好於預期以及成本協同效應略高，超出預期。第一季調整後的分部 EBITDA 利潤率受益於剩餘期間低於預期的銷售額以及固定成本。測試與測量第一季貢獻了 0.13 美元，其中包括股票補償費用和使用測試與測量稅率，該稅率為十幾歲。前面討論的存續期動態使調整後的 EPS 貢獻增加了約 0.02 美元。

Test & Measurement's March quarter end sales volume has typically stepped down from its December quarter end. We expect similar seasonality with second quarter sales of approximately $350 million. Second quarter adjusted EPS contribution is expected to be $0.07 driven by leverage on the lower seasonal sales volume, partially offset by synergy savings.

測試與測量公司 3 月季度末的銷量通常較 12 月季度末有所下降。我們預計第二季銷售額將出現類似的季節性變化，約 3.5 億美元。第二季調整後每股盈餘貢獻預計為 0.07 美元，這是由於季節性銷售下降的槓桿作用，部分被協同效應節省所抵消。

Turning to the full year. We have increased our expected adjusted EPS contribution from Test & Measurement to $0.40 to $0.45 to account for some of the Q1 upside. We still expect sales to be $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion as we continue to watch for the orders turn. Sales volumes are expected to ramp from Q2 to Q4, turning positive in Q4, consistent with our prior expectations. While we expect to be -- sales to be down versus 2023, we expect modest adjusted EBITDA expansion as we recognize the cost synergies.

轉至全年。我們將測試與測量的預期調整後每股收益貢獻提高至 0.40 至 0.45 美元，以應對第一季的部分上漲。隨著我們繼續關注訂單的變化，我們仍然預計銷售額為 15 億至 16 億美元。預計銷量將從第二季度上升到第四季度，並在第四季度轉正，這與我們先前的預期一致。雖然我們預計銷售額將比 2023 年有所下降，但由於我們認識到成本協同效應，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將適度擴張。

Finally, I would like to thank the Test & Measurement team for an excellent quarter. The integration work has been performed exceedingly well, and your embrace of the Emerson Management System is very much appreciated. Thank you again to the entire Test & Measurement team.

最後，我要感謝測試與測量團隊度過了一個出色的季度。整合工作進展得非常好，非常感謝您對艾默生管理系統的支持。再次感謝整個測試與測量團隊。

Please turn to Slide 10 for details of our Q2 and full year 2024 guidance. After our strong Q1 performance, we are increasing our full year 2024 sales and adjusted EPS guidance. We now expect underlying sales growth of 4.5% to 6.5%, driven by our process and hybrid businesses to be within this guidance range for underlying sales. We continue to watch the discrete automation recovery closely, and we now expect sales to turn positive in Q4 consistent with Test & Measurement.

請參閱投影片 10，以了解我們第二季和 2024 年全年指引的詳細資訊。在第一季表現強勁之後，我們正在增加 2024 年全年銷售額並調整每股收益指引。我們現在預計，在我們的流程和混合業務的推動下，基礎銷售成長將達到 4.5% 至 6.5%，處於此基礎銷售指導範圍內。我們繼續密切關注離散自動化的復甦，我們現在預計第四季度的銷售將轉為正值，與測試和測量一致。

Full year discrete automation underlying sales are now expected to be down in the low single-digit range. FX is expected to be approximately flat versus 2023 compared to a 1-point headwind embedded in our November guidance. Operating leverage, excluding Test & Measurement, is now expected to be in the low to mid-40s in 2024 versus the mid- to high 40s guidance from November. A modest reduction in our full year target is solely attributed to the move in FX as the 1% increase in sales volume comes in at a lower margin.

目前預計全年離散自動化基礎銷售額將下降至低個位數範圍。與我們 11 月指導中包含的 1 個點的逆風相比，預計外匯將與 2023 年大致持平。目前預計 2024 年營運槓桿（不包括測試與測量）將處於 40 多歲的低至 40 多歲的水平，而 11 月份的指導值為 40 多歲的中高水平。我們全年目標的小幅下調完全是由於外匯走勢，因為銷量成長 1% 的利潤率較低。

Our adjusted EPS range increases from $5.30 to $5.45 driven by our Q1 performance. AspenTech is still expected to contribute approximately $0.32 to $0.34. Lastly, we are maintaining our free cash flow guidance of $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion. Share repurchase is expected to be approximately $500 million, of which $175 million was completed in Q1.

受第一季業績的推動，調整後每股收益範圍從 5.30 美元增至 5.45 美元。 AspenTech 預計仍將貢獻約 0.32 至 0.34 美元。最後，我們維持 26 億至 27 億美元的自由現金流指引。股票回購預計約5億美元，其中1.75億美元於第一季完成。

For the second quarter, we expect underlying sales to increase 3.5% to 5.5% with leverage in the low to mid-40s. Tougher comps in discrete automation are expected to have an impact on reported sales growth for the quarter. However, volumes are expected to improve sequentially from Q1. Adjusted EPS is expected to between -- to be between $1.22 and $1.26.

對於第二季度，我們預計基礎銷售額將成長 3.5% 至 5.5%，槓桿率在 40 左右。離散自動化領域的強勁競爭預計將對本季報告的銷售成長產生影響。然而，銷售量預計將比第一季連續改善。調整後每股收益預計在 1.22 美元至 1.26 美元之間。

And with that, we will now turn the call back to the operator for Q&A.

這樣，我們現在將把電話轉回接線生進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Andy Kaplowitz of Citigroup.

（操作員說明） 第一個問題來自花旗集團的安迪‧卡普洛維茲（Andy Kaplowitz）。

Lal, I think your backlog at $7.6 billion, it was up relatively significantly, even excluding Test & Measurement addition with the orders, as you said, a plus 4%. Can you talk about organic order visibility going forward? It seems like process/hybrid has been relatively strong as you thought. Can you sustain that mid-single-digit kind of order growth going forward? And then have you seen an inflection yet in NATI-related orders?

Lal，我認為你們的積壓訂單為 76 億美元，成長相對顯著，即使不包括訂單中的測試和測量，正如你們所說，成長了 4%。您能談談未來的有機訂單可見度嗎？流程/混合似乎如您所想的那樣相對較強。未來您能否維持中個位數的訂單成長？那麼您是否看到了 NATI 相關訂單的變化？

Andy, no, happy to give you some color on the orders. So obviously, as you know about our biz, orders can fluctuate on a quarter-to-quarter basis, which is a lower single-digit range in the first half of the year, but finishing the year in the mid-single-digit range, as we are now. We have a high degree of confidence about that based on 2 factors, Andy, the first being our MRO business continues to be relatively strong. It represented approximately 65% of the revenue in Q1, and we expect that to remain robust as we go through the remainder of the year. And that provides us a strong base of order activity.

安迪，不，很高興為您提供有關訂單的一些資訊。顯然，正如您對我們業務的了解一樣，訂單可能會按季度波動，上半年的波動幅度較低，但全年的波動幅度在個位數中段，就像我們現在一樣。我們對此充滿信心，基於兩個因素，安迪，第一個是我們的 MRO 業務仍然相對強勁。它約佔第一季營收的 65%，我們預計這一比例在今年剩餘時間內將保持強勁。這為我們的訂單活動提供了堅實的基礎。

Secondly, the conversion in the funnel. We booked approximately $400 million that represented almost a little over 90 projects that we won out of the funnel in the first quarter. The funnel grew despite that. And we continue to see activity, particularly in energy transition driven by the Middle East and Africa; in the sustainability area, life sciences; and of course, a tremendous amount of activity in metals and mining.

其次，漏斗內的轉換。我們預訂了大約 4 億美元，這代表了我們在第一季從漏斗中贏得的近 90 個項目。儘管如此，漏斗仍在成長。我們繼續看到活動，特別是在中東和非洲推動的能源轉型方面；在永續發展領域，生命科學；當然，還有大量的金屬和採礦活動。

So from an underlying Emerson perspective, the focus really is process and hybrid to continue to provide that underlying strength through the year. Now what we will see is a recovery in discrete in the second half, and that's what we've got baked in here. We are still in the lower single digits negative right now in our discrete markets. It's really demand-driven, as we've been talking about for the last couple of quarters. We do expect a recovery in orders into the second half, of course, between comps and obviously some demand elements there.

因此，從艾默生的基本角度來看，重點實際上是過程和混合，以繼續在這一年中提供潛在的力量。現在我們將看到下半年分立裝置的復甦，這就是我們在這裡所看到的。目前，我們的離散市場仍處於較低的個位數負數。正如我們過去幾個季度一直在談論的那樣，這確實是需求驅動的。當然，我們確實預計下半年訂單將會復甦，當然，在比較和明顯的一些需求因素之間。

As far as NI is concerned, it's very much on plan to what we expect in terms of orders. We do also believe that there's a second half positive return on the order activity. And we're starting to see early signs in markets, particularly like semiconductor, as you see these companies come out and report. So very much on plan on both ends and which gives us confidence in the underlying strength of the order activity, Andy.

就 NI 而言，其訂單計劃與我們的預期非常吻合。我們也確實相信下半年訂單活動會帶來正面的回報。我們開始看到市場的早期跡象，特別是半導體市場，正如你看到這些公司出來報告的那樣。安迪，兩端的計劃都非常好，這讓我們對訂單活動的潛在實力充滿信心。

Helpful. You obviously had a good quarter and raised the outlook. But maybe just on free cash flow, you didn't change your guidance despite the better quarter and outlook. Did you raise your acquisition-related costs? Is CapEx going up? Anything that you could talk about on that side or on the working capital side?

有幫助。顯然，您的季度表現不錯，並提高了前景。但也許只是在自由現金流方面，儘管季度和前景更好，但您並沒有改變您的指導。您是否提高了與收購相關的成本？資本支出是否上升？您可以在這方面或營運資金方面談論什麼嗎？

Andy, it's Mike. I'll take that one. Yes, the guide was maintained at $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion. And with respect to the $250 million that we called out in November, that's tracking right on plan. About $100 million in the quarter plus the cap, that's on the operating cash flow items, mostly integration-related. And then we did see a little bit elevated CapEx, again, very much in line with expectations.

安迪，是麥克。我會接受那個。是的，指南維持在 26 億至 27 億美元之間。至於我們在 11 月籌集的 2.5 億美元，目前正在按計劃進行。本季約 1 億美元加上上限，用於營運現金流項目，主要與整合相關。然後我們確實再次看到資本支出略有上升，非常符合預期。

We thought a lot about the guide, obviously. And just to go through a little bit of the math, we -- while we took up the earnings, we took up the sales, the net of that is about $50 million in cash flow, still within the $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion. So we elected not to take it up given where we set first quarter. But certainly sitting here today, I can tell you we feel better about the cash flow guide than we did 3 months ago, and it's all going to plan.

顯然，我們對這份指南思考了很多。稍微算一下，我們在計算收益的同時，也計算了銷售額，淨現金流量約 5,000 萬美元，仍在 26 億至 27 億美元之間。因此，考慮到我們第一季的設定，我們選擇不接受它。但今天坐在這裡，我可以告訴你們，我們對現金流量指南的感覺比三個月前更好，而且一切都會按計劃進行。

The next question comes from Steve Tusa of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Can you just talk about the -- just maybe the bridge, a little more clarity there from the $0.13 you did for NATI to the $0.07? It doesn't look like all of that account was accounted for by a $30 million sales decline. And then, I guess, on a -- just when you look out to this $1.55 guidance, going from what you've done in the first half, do we expect that to be kind of linear from the [3 50] in Q2 in sales? Or is it kind of heavily loaded in the fourth quarter?

您能否談談——也許只是橋樑，從您為 NATI 所做的 0.13 美元到 0.07 美元，更清晰一些？看起來這部分費用並沒有全部歸因於 3000 萬美元的銷售額下降。然後，我想，就在您關注 1.55 美元的指導時，從您上半年所做的事情來看，我們是否預計這與第二季度的 [3 50] 呈線性關係？銷售量？或者說第四季的負載有點重？

Yes. Steve, it's Mike. I'll talk a little bit about the Test & Measurement performance and the EPS performance in the quarter. We talked a little bit about this stub dynamic, which really was simply the early 11-day period that we didn't own them the first part of the quarter. The sales were much lower than we expected. We expected something more ratable. They were not ratable. And that drove about $0.02 of improvement from what we expected.

是的。史蒂夫，是麥克。我將談談本季的測試和測量績效以及每股盈餘績效。我們討論了一些存根動態，這實際上只是我們在本季度的第一部分沒有擁有它們的早期 11 天期間。銷售額遠低於我們的預期。我們期待一些更有價值的東西。他們沒有評級。這比我們的預期提高了約 0.02 美元。

And the business leverages, as you know, really nicely. So pushing those sales out into the quarter drove part of that $0.13 performance. Now of that, there was also some Q1 sales that we were expecting in Q2. And so when we thought about the guide, we took that $0.08 beat and we rolled $0.05 forward, and that's where we landed. So great performance on Test & Measurement, and we're really off to a great start there. Ram, do you want to talk about the...

如您所知，該業務的槓桿作用非常好。因此，將這些銷售額推到本季是 0.13 美元業績的部分原因。除此之外，我們預計第二季也會有一些第一季的銷售。因此，當我們考慮指南時，我們採取了 0.08 美元的節奏，然後向前滾動了 0.05 美元，這就是我們的目標。測試和測量方面的表現非常出色，我們確實有了一個好的開始。拉姆，你想談談...

The second part of the question, yes, I think it's not all in Q4. So you'll see evenly distributed in Q3 and Q4, it will step up from the 3 50. So we feel pretty good about the $0.40 to $0.45 as we sit here.

問題的第二部分，是的，我認為這並不全部在第四季。因此，您會看到第三季和第四季的分佈均勻，將從 3 50 上升。因此，當我們坐在這裡時，我們對 0.40 美元到 0.45 美元感到非常滿意。

Right. And just one last one, just on the discrete. You guys have been a little more steady on that discrete performance. So you're -- relative to some of your peers who had a very strong backlog liquidation in the second half of last year, you guys kind of started to see some of that weakness. So the comps start getting easier in the fourth quarter, correct? The year-over-year comps?

正確的。最後一項，只是離散的。你們在離散性能方面更加穩定了。所以，相對於去年下半年積壓清算量非常大的一些同行，你們開始看到了一些弱點。所以第四季比賽開始變得更容易，對嗎？同比比較？

Yes, actually, in the third quarter from -- and third and fourth quarter should be good quarters for us from a discrete perspective, correct.

是的，實際上，從離散的角度來看，第三和第四季度對我們來說應該是良好的季度，正確的。

And orders.

並下令。

And orders. And then sales will turn positive in Q4.

並下令。然後第四季銷售額將轉正。

Right. On an easier comp.

正確的。在更簡單的比較上。

Correct.

正確的。

The next question comes from Jeff Sprague of Vertical Research.

下一個問題來自垂直研究公司的傑夫·斯普拉格。

Lal, 2 for me. First one, just on LNG. Obviously, it's a global business, and you talked about the Middle East. But just give us your perspective on what the administration has done on approvals in the U.S. And how that might impact your business, the funnels and anything related on your mind?

拉爾，給我2個。第一個是液化天然氣。顯然，這是一項全球業務，而您談到了中東。但請告訴我們您對政府在美國審批方面所做的事情的看法，以及這可能會如何影響您的業務、管道以及您想到的任何相關內容？

Yes. No, certainly, we're disappointed with the administration's decision to hold permitting -- export permitting regarding LNG, not just from an Emerson perspective, from an overall, as an American, to be very honest. But it is a global business. We have significant activity going in Qatar, of course, in Mozambique and in Guyana, which will provide ample activity and gives us confidence in the forecast that we have in the funnel movement.

是的。不，當然，我們對政府決定保留液化天然氣出口許可的決定感到失望，這不僅僅是從艾默生的角度來看，從整體上看，作為一個美國人，老實說。但這是一項全球性業務。當然，我們在卡達、莫三比克和圭亞那都有重要的活動，這將提供充足的活動，並使我們對漏斗運動的預測充滿信心。

In terms of the projects we're executing in North America, we don't see any meaningful impact to 2024 at this point in time. The projects that we have won have the approvals required, not just for construction, transportation, but ultimately for exports. And our partners, Bechtel and others that we've discussed on these calls, have given us the confidence, Jeff, that we are -- that 2024 is relatively solid. Then as we go forward, we'll see. We continue to see accelerated strength in the East Coast of Africa and in the Middle East, and there's some activity up in Canada as well. So we'll see where that goes related to the U.S. decision.

就我們在北美執行的專案而言，我們目前認為對 2024 年不會產生任何有意義的影響。我們贏得的項目都獲得了所需的批准，不僅是建築、運輸，而且最終是出口。傑夫，我們的合作夥伴柏克德公司和我們在電話會議中討論過的其他合作夥伴給了我們信心——2024 年是相對穩固的。然後，當我們繼續前進時，我們會看到。我們繼續看到非洲東海岸和中東地區的成長勢頭加速，加拿大也出現了一些活動。因此，我們將看看這與美國的決定有何關係。

And then just to be totally clear. Lal, the project funnel that you illustrate for us quarterly, does some of the -- I guess, pending approval U.S. projects, are they in that funnel?

然後就完全清楚了。拉爾，您每季為我們展示的專案漏斗，我猜，一些等待批准的美國專案是否在該漏斗中？

Yes, they're in the funnel. Depending on the year that we had, expectation of funnel looks at about a 3-year lens of activity. So they are in the funnel there. And as you know, in the construction of a liquefaction -- excuse me, Jeff liquefaction plant is a 4- to 5-year event. So certain decisions will continue to be made based on assumptions of export licenses being awarded down the stretch, Jeff.

是的，他們在漏斗中。根據我們所處的年份，漏斗的預期著眼於大約 3 年的活動鏡頭。所以他們就在漏斗裡。如你所知，在液化工廠的建設中——對不起，傑夫液化廠是一個為期四到五年的事件。因此，傑夫，某些決定將繼續基於即將頒發出口許可證的假設做出。

Great. And then just shifting on NATI real quick. Certainly suspect that your synergies initially laid out were somewhat conservative. But I wonder if you could address the 3-year versus the 5-year. So kind of the underlying cost synergies, I'm not surprised they're going up. I think part of the reason that you talked about 5 years was really treading carefully and that sort of thing. So just give us your thoughts on where that is and maybe the cultural side of the integration, I guess, is the heart of the question.

偉大的。然後快速轉向 NATI。當然懷疑你們最初提出的協同效應有些保守。但我想知道您是否可以討論 3 年與 5 年的問題。如此潛在的成本協同效應，我對它們的上升並不感到驚訝。我認為你談到五年的部分原因實際上是謹慎行事之類的事情。因此，請告訴我們您對這一點的看法，我想，也許整合的文化面向是問題的核心。

Well, I will start with this, Jeff. We have a phenomenal management team by Reto Fabre and a great integration team here at Emerson that works very closely with the business. The team spent a significant amount of time between signing and close to do the work so that we could hit the ground running.

好吧，我就從這個開始吧，傑夫。我們擁有一支由 Reto Fabre 領導的出色管理團隊，以及艾默生一支與業務部門密切合作的優秀整合團隊。團隊在簽約和完成之間花費了大量時間來完成工作，以便我們能夠立即開始工作。

But of course, as you can imagine, this is a very large transaction. We bought this company because we believe it can grow and it can run better. And we wanted to have a degree of caution in how fast we could go, what we could accomplish. And to many degrees, we've been pleased with the degree of execution, the speed at which it's been done and the energy that the team has had around the effort, which then gave us confidence, not just to increase the number but to increase the time of execution -- to decrease the time of execution to 3 years.

但當然，正如你可以想像的，這是一筆非常大的交易。我們購買這家公司是因為我們相信它可以成長並且可以運作得更好。我們希望對我們能走多快、能完成什麼有一定程度的謹慎。在很多程度上，我們對執行的程度、完成的速度以及團隊圍繞工作所付出的精力感到滿意，這給了我們信心，不僅是增加數量，而且是增加數量執行時間——將執行時間縮短至3年。

Ram, any color on that?

拉姆，有什麼顏色嗎？

Yes, you said it. I think the team, as we both reviewed the plans, felt very, very good in the quality of the. It this done faster and moving the business along. And that's where we've been very pleasantly surprised, the cultural similarity between how we both think, the customer-centricity and how we apply the rules to do the synergy actions. I think there -- we feel very confident that we could move faster. And that's the reason we raised it, and we also believe we can get it done by the end of year 3.

是的，你說過。我認為，當我們雙方審查計劃時，團隊對計劃的品質感到非常非常好。這樣可以更快地完成業務並推動業務發展。這就是我們感到非常驚訝的地方，我們的思維方式、以客戶為中心以及我們如何應用規則來執行協同行動之間的文化相似性。我認為，我們非常有信心能夠更快採取行動。這就是我們提出這個問題的原因，我們也相信我們可以在第三年年底前完成它。

The next question comes from Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的奈傑爾·科。

So obviously, a lot of questions on NATI so far, National Instruments, I guess. You've obviously accelerated the time line for the synergies. As Jeff mentioned, you raised it by $20 million. But you kept the 31% margin targets. Just wondering if there's anything kind of offsetting the upside to cost synergies we should consider there.

很明顯，到目前為止，我猜對 NATI、National Instruments 有很多問題。你顯然加快了協同效應的時間線。正如 Jeff 提到的，您籌集了 2000 萬美元。但你們保留了 31% 的利潤目標。只是想知道是否有任何東西可以抵消我們應該考慮的成本協同效應的優勢。

Nigel, it's Mike. No, there's really on plan. And remember, that's 5 years out that we were talking about, 31%. We are on track. I think the important thing for the near term is that our expectation around that adjusted EBITDA margin will be that it's a little bit up year-over-year on down sales, reflecting the synergy actions. And moving forward, no, there's really no change to our longer-term expectation around the profitability of Test & Measurement.

奈傑爾，是麥克。不，確實有計劃。請記住，我們談論的是 5 年後的情況，即 31%。我們步入正軌。我認為近期重要的事情是，我們對調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率的預期將是，由於銷售下降，該利潤率將同比略有上升，反映了協同效應。展望未來，我們對測試與測量獲利能力的長期預期確實沒有變化。

No, no. But the $20 million gives you an extra point of margin. So just wondering if there's anything to offset that. It doesn't sound like there is, but just that's the spirit of the question.

不，不。但這 2000 萬美元可以為你帶來額外的利潤。所以只是想知道是否有什麼可以抵消這一點。聽起來似乎不存在，但這就是問題的實質。

There isn't. I mean at the...

沒有。我的意思是在...

Yes, go ahead.

好，去吧。

No, there isn't. There isn't necessarily anything we've identified to offset the $20 million. I mean the 31% margin targets 5 years out. I mean, obviously, what we are finding is good investment opportunities. And right now, we're focused on executing the synergies by year 3. If we find good investment opportunities, we'll make that because I think 31% is the target we've set, and we feel pretty comfortable getting there. But if the $185 million comes through with no additional investment opportunities, maybe the number goes up, but that applies your out number.

不，沒有。我們不一定有任何東西可以抵消這 2000 萬美元。我的意思是 5 年後 31% 的利潤率目標。我的意思是，顯然我們正在尋找良好的投資機會。現在，我們的重點是在第三年之前實現協同效應。如果我們找到好的投資機會，我們就會實現這一目標，因為我認為31% 是我們設定的目標，而我們對實現這一目標感到非常滿足。但如果 1.85 億美元在沒有額外投資機會的情況下完成，這個數字可能會上升，但這適用於你的出局數字。

Okay. No, that's fair. I know I'm being counting, but just this worth question. And then you had some extraordinarily strong growth numbers within ID. I mean the 28% within measurement analytics. It looks like it's just an easy comp. So just -- maybe just talk about that a little bit. But more importantly, there's a theory out there that the process and hybrid markets are on a lag of discrete. And therefore, the spot part we've seen in discrete automation right now is sort of like a precursor for what you might see 6 months down the road. So can you just maybe address that point? And just anything unusual or concerning that you're seeing? It doesn't sound like it, but certainly, just maybe address that concern out there.

好的。不，這很公平。我知道我在數數，但這只是一個值得問的問題。然後，ID 內出現了一些異常強勁的成長數據。我指的是測量分析中的 28%。看起來這只是一個簡單的比較。所以只是——也許只是談談這一點。但更重要的是，有一種理論認為流程市場和混合市場處於離散市場的滯後狀態。因此，我們現在在離散自動化中看到的現貨部分有點像 6 個月後可能看到的情況的前兆。那你能解決這一點嗎？您看到了什麼不尋常或令人擔憂的事情嗎？聽起來不像，但當然，也許只是解決了這個問題。

Yes, happy to, Nigel. I've been speaking and been asked about this for the last 3 quarters or so. And again, what we experienced in the quarter continues to be very consistent with our initial commentary. The drivers around process and hybrid are being supported by the secular macros that we've been discussing, whether it's energy security, affordability, nearshoring, sustainability to digital transformation. And I think those macro secular drivers are robust enough and secular in nature that they will go through a different type of cycle than we've seen historically.

是的，很高興，奈傑爾。在過去的三個季度左右的時間裡，我一直在談論這個問題，也有人問我這個問題。同樣，我們在本季的經驗仍然與我們最初的評論非常一致。流程和混合動力的驅動因素得到了我們一直在討論的長期宏觀因素的支持，無論是能源安全、可負擔性、近岸外包、數位轉型的可持續性。我認為這些宏觀長期驅動因素足夠強大且本質上是長期的，它們將經歷與我們歷史上所見過的不同類型的周期。

Secondly, we did not experience a boom and bust in the process space in over the last cycle. This is a much more moderated capital cycle that we experienced. So we don't have the overcapacity situations and the overbuild situations that we have typically experienced. There was much more discipline in the capital layouts by our customers. And that's a benefit as well. So our business continues to be very robust, obviously. We continue to have confidence in the order runs and in the execution through the year.

其次，在上一個週期中，我們沒有經歷流程空間的繁榮和蕭條。這是我們經歷過的一個較為溫和的資本週期。因此，我們沒有出現通常遇到的產能過剩和過度建設的情況。我們的客戶在資本佈局上有更多的紀律。這也是一個好處。因此，顯然我們的業務仍然非常強勁。我們對全年的訂單運行和執行仍然充滿信心。

Yes. Just to answer the first part of your question, Automation Solutions up 28%. That's a function of that the supply chains coming back in that business. If you remember, it was an easier comparison. Q1 of last year, we had significant challenges on the electronics front, which have alleviated. So our orders are up high single digits, sales up 28% driven by improving supply chain. So it's clearly a data point driven by weaker -- easier comparisons, I would say, with Q1 of last year.

是的。只是回答你問題的第一部分，自動化解決方案上漲了 28%。這是供應鏈回歸該業務的功能。如果你還記得的話，這是一個更容易的比較。去年第一季度，我們在電子領域遇到了重大挑戰，但現在已經有所緩解。因此，在供應鏈改善的推動下，我們的訂單實現了高個位數成長，銷售額成長了 28%。因此，這顯然是一個由較弱的數據點驅動的——我想說，與去年第一季的比較更容易。

The next question comes from Scott Davis of Melius Research.

下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

Congrats on a good start.

恭喜你有一個好的開始。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I wanted to back up a little bit when you talk about R&D transformation at Test & Measurement. What do you mean? Is it like an 80-20 type thing that you're going to refocusing? Or just -- I know they're -- those good folks at NATI always spend a lot of money. But was it generally unfocused, do you think? Or how do you guys think about it?

當你談論測試與測量的研發轉型時，我想支持一下。你是什​​麼意思？是不是像 80-20 類型的事情，你要重新調整焦點？或者只是——我知道他們——NATI 的那些好人總是花很多錢。但你認為它通常是不集中的嗎？或者大家是怎麼看待這個問題的呢？

Yes. I think it's purely on prioritization of the projects. I think we've gone in with our management system on how do we focus on the critical few priorities that can move the needle from a growth perspective. I mean there's lots of opportunity. The beauty of what we're finding at NATI is a culture of innovation; plenty of opportunities across 4 very important market segments where we can move the needle; macros around those markets like EVs, ADAS and semiconductors that are supportive of strong innovation.

是的。我認為這純粹是專案的優先順序。我認為我們已經在管理系統中研究瞭如何專注於能夠從成長角度推動發展的關鍵幾個優先事項。我的意思是有很多機會。我們在 NATI 發現的美妙之處在於創新文化； 4 個非常重要的細分市場有大量機會，我們可以在其中推動發展；圍繞電動車、ADAS 和半導體等支持強勁創新的市場的宏觀政策。

But I think we're bringing some discipline into how do we prioritize, how do we look at where do these resources need to be in order to balance cost capabilities? Particularly in software versus Austin, for example. And I think these are prudent moves that will allow us to drive more innovation at a better cost from an R&D as a percent of sales.

但我認為我們正在對如何確定優先事項、如何考慮這些資源需要放在哪裡以平衡成本能力提出了一些規則？例如，特別是在軟體領域與奧斯汀的競爭。我認為這些都是審慎的舉措，將使我們能夠以更好的研發成本（佔銷售額的百分比）推動更多創新。

And I will just add, Scott, to that. I think a company like NI with the market position it has in the space and the legitimacy of its technology will always have a role in the research element of innovation. That's always going to be a responsibility that we have in the space to continue to move that needle forward. And we will, by all means, as we do in all our businesses, continue that. But having viable commercial programs is important. And that's where parking some cars and investing heavily in the ones that we believe and management believes will ultimately result in customer success is really important. So really good work and thoughtful work being done by the team here led by Ram, of course, and Ritu.

史考特，我只想補充一點。我認為像 NI 這樣的公司在該領域擁有市場地位，其技術具有合法性，並將始終在創新的研究元素中發揮作用。這始終是我們在該領域的責任，並繼續推動這一進程。我們將盡一切努力，正如我們在所有業務中所做的那樣，繼續這樣做。但擁有可行的商業計劃很重要。這就是停放一些汽車並大力投資我們和管理層認為最終將帶來客戶成功的汽車是非常重要的。當然，由 Ram 和 Ritu 領導的團隊所做的工作非常出色且深思熟慮。

Helpful context. If we back up a little bit again, you cited the SAF win with DG Fuels. Can -- what is the scope when you classify something like a win like that? Are you talking full meters, valves? Is there controls? Is there -- is it kind of across a full suite of offering? Or is there more specific stuff that you target for those types of projects you would class as a win?

有用的上下文。如果我們再退一步，您提到了 SAF 與 DG Fuels 的勝利。可以——當你對像勝利這樣的事情進行分類時，範圍是什麼？你說的是完整的儀表、閥門嗎？有控制嗎？是否存在－是否涵蓋一整套產品？或者對於那些您認為是勝利的項目類型，您是否有更具體的目標？

Yes. No, this was a -- if you think about our -- the automation stack, this was pretty much across the entire stack, the final control elements, the muscle in the plant, the sensing elements that we use both flow, pressure level and temperature, the DeltaV control system and then the analytics packages alongside it. So this was a holistic full package, 100% Emerson win, which really proved out the value of the portfolio and how it all comes together at a customer site.

是的。不，這是一個——如果你想想我們的——自動化堆棧，這幾乎涵蓋了整個堆疊、最終控制元件、工廠的肌肉、我們使用流量、壓力水平和溫度、DeltaV 控制系統以及旁邊的分析包。因此，這是一個整體完整的解決方案，艾默生 100% 獲勝，這真正證明了該產品組合的價值以及它們如何在客戶現場整合在一起。

The next question comes from Julian Mitchell of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Just wanted to circle back to the discussion around sort of process investments by the large customers, particularly in the sort of oil and gas and energy world. Because it does seem as if there's an understandably a clear effort on that part is sort of shovel more of their cash to shareholders, whether they're government in the Middle East or public shareholders in the West. So just wondered your thoughts, Lal, on the kind of sustainability of that high single-digit orders growth in process that you saw in Q1. Should we expect that to moderate over the next sort of 12 months or so? And does that then pull the backlog down with it? Or the book-to-bill was so high that the backlog can still grow with moderating orders?

只是想回到圍繞大客戶的流程投資的討論，特別是在石油、天然氣和能源領域。因為看起來確實有一種可以理解的明確努力，那就是向股東提供更多現金，無論他們是中東的政府還是西方的公眾股東。拉爾，我想知道您對第一季看到的個位數訂單高成長的可持續性有何看法。我們是否應該預期這種情況會在未來 12 個月左右的時間內有所緩和？那麼這會減少積壓嗎？或者訂單出貨量如此之高，以至於隨著訂單的減少，積壓訂單仍然會增加？

Yes. It's a great question, Julian. I just returned from the Middle East where our team spent -- India and the Middle East, so our team spent time with significant customers in Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Qatar. And I can tell you that the environment is very robust, predominantly around sustainability and energy transition, those 2 elements. And I think there's enough demand-driven activity, that will give us confidence in the sustained mid-single-digit kind of exit rate on process on the total company orders at the end of the year.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，朱利安。我剛從我們團隊待過的中東回來——印度和中東，所以我們的團隊與沙烏地阿拉伯、阿布達比、卡達的重要客戶一起度過了時光。我可以告訴你，環境非常強大，主要圍繞著永續性和能源轉型這兩個要素。我認為有足夠的需求驅動活動，這將使我們對年底公司總訂單流程中持續的中位數退出率充滿信心。

So at this point, we've been thinking and analyzing this now for about 3 quarters or so. But we haven't seen any kind of deceleration in the process, particularly in the spaces that you're asking about. As a matter of fact, we continue to see very disciplined spending, very intentional around core elements of automation that can differentiate production around reliability, efficiency, productivity, of course, and safety. And that hasn't waned yet. And I don't -- we don't foresee that as we go through the year.

所以到目前為止，我們已經思考和分析了大約三個季度左右的時間。但我們在這個過程中沒有看到任何形式的減速，特別是在你所詢問的領域。事實上，我們繼續看到非常有紀律的支出，非常有意識地圍繞自動化的核心要素，這些要素可以在可靠性、效率、生產力，當然還有安全性方面區分生產。而且這種情況還沒有減弱。我不認為——我們在這一年中不會預見到這一點。

That's helpful. And then just a much more sort of near-term fiddly question. Just looking at the second quarter guide on Slide 10, so the EPS at the midpoint is going up maybe $0.02 sequentially from Q1 despite a decent revenue and volume increase sequentially. Partly, that's the Test & Measurement earnings falling sequentially. But just wondered if there was anything else? Like in the base business changing in terms of mix or something like that as you move from sort of Q1 to Q2.

這很有幫助。然後是一個更近期的棘手問題。只要看看幻燈片 10 上的第二季度指南，儘管收入和銷售連續增長，但中點的每股收益可能比第一季上漲 0.02 美元。部分原因是測試與測量收入連續下降。但只是想知道是否還有其他事情？就像當你從第一季轉向第二季時，基礎業務在組合或類似方面發生變化。

No. You hit it right with the Test & Measurement comment. And the leverage in the low to mid-40s coming through reflects no big change in mix or trajectory. So no, really nothing there on the Q2 guide.

不，您的測試與測量評論說得對。 40 多歲左右的槓桿率反映出組合或軌跡沒有重大變化。所以不，第二季指南上確實沒有任何內容。

The next question comes from Chris Snyder of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的克里斯·史奈德。

I also wanted to ask on National Instruments. Q1 came in about $80 million above the guide. But you guys are now talking to a full year of $1.5 billion to 1.6 billion. All the commentary on the last call was $1.6 billion. So I guess, was that range following the beat? Is it just a rounding error? Or is National Instruments maybe turning a little bit slower than you thought previously?

我也想問National Instruments。第一季的營收比指導值高出約 8,000 萬美元。但你們現在談論的是全年 15 億至 16 億美元。上次電話會議的所有評論價值 16 億美元。所以我想，這個範圍是跟著節拍的嗎？這只是一個舍入錯誤嗎？或者，National Instruments 的發展速度可能比您之前想像的要慢一些嗎？

Yes. Chris, if you go back to November guide, that range has remained consistent. I think it was just a round in $1.6 billion that was being spoken about.

是的。克里斯，如果你回到 11 月指南，這個範圍仍然保持一致。我認為大家談論的只是一輪 16 億美元的融資。

And then I just want to ask on margins. It's been a real bright spot for the company over the last couple of years. You guys beat the incremental guide again here in Q1. But I believe the full year guide on the incrementals was lower, I think, from -- to low to mid-40s from mid- to high despite the Q1 beat. Is there anything there on mix or something that we should be aware of?

然後我只想問一下邊際問題。在過去的幾年裡，這一直是該公司的一個真正的亮點。你們在第一季再次擊敗了增量指南。但我認為，儘管第一季業績好於預期，但我認為全年增量指引較低，從低到 40 多歲，從中到高。 mix 有什麼需要我們注意的嗎？

Yes. Chris, the -- in the comments, we talked about the effect of foreign exchange. We changed assumption there, and it had a 1 point increase on FX, which comes into the leverage number with a much lower profitability attached to it. The drivers around leverage remain the same with volume and leverage and price/cost, and then we continue to drive the Emerson management process with cost reductions to offset inflation, so yes. But to answer your question specifically, the change in the guide was really solely attributed to that FX element.

是的。克里斯，在評論中，我們討論了外匯的影響。我們改變了那裡的假設，外匯增加了 1 個點，這進入了槓桿數字，但其盈利能力卻要低得多。圍繞槓桿的驅動因素與數量、槓桿和價格/成本保持不變，然後我們繼續透過降低成本來推動艾默生管理流程以抵消通貨膨脹，所以是的。但具體回答你的問題，指南中的變化實際上完全歸因於外匯元素。

The next question comes from Deane Dray of RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的迪恩德雷 (Deane Dray)。

Look, there's been a lot of focus on the progress you're making on the cost synergies front in National Instruments. Can we talk a bit about expectations for revenue synergies? It might be too early, but just timing and size and where it might come from? Is it cross-selling? Are there new customers you've been opened up to? But just what's the expectation?

看，大家都非常關注您在 National Instruments 的成本綜效方面所取得的進展。我們可以談談對所得綜效的預期嗎？可能還為時過早，但只是時間和規模以及它可能來自哪裡？是交叉銷售嗎？您是否已向新客戶開放？但期望是什麼？

I'll let Ram add a little bit of color. But certainly, it's something that we're keenly working on. Obviously, the focus was on the commitment on cost. And we do believe alongside management that, that is a -- had been and is an evident opportunity.

我會讓拉姆添加一點色彩。但可以肯定的是，這是我們正在積極努力的事情。顯然，重點是對成本的承諾。我們和管理階層一起確實相信，這過去是、現在仍然是一個明顯的機會。

Having said that, we are -- I'm not going to suggest that we're 3 or maybe even 6 months away to come out publicly with some sales ideas, but we're certainly working on customer-specific ideas on sales synergies. Ram and I and Reto have held a number of customer meetings jointly and thinking through opportunities that we have across the Emerson portfolio as it comes in with NI. Ram?

話雖如此，我們 - 我不會建議我們在 3 甚至 6 個月後公開提出一些銷售想法，但我們肯定正在研究針對客戶的銷售協同效應的特定想法。 Ram 和我以及 Reto 共同召開了多次客戶會議，並思考我們在艾默生產品組合中與 NI 合作時所擁有的機會。記憶體？

Yes. And just the 2 end markets are clearly going to be EV batteries where on a holistic basis where we play on the production automation. And NI plays on the validation and test systems on the R&D side and then similarly in semiconductors, 2 markets where I think there's enough customer overlap and a joint capability that provides meaningful value to our customers from R&D, through validation, through production is where we will see the opportunities. We're working it. We're not ready yet to commit and quantify the sales synergies, but these are certainly in focus, and we're working through the process.

是的。顯然，電動車電池將成為兩個終端市場，從整體來看，我們將致力於生產自動化。 NI 在研發方面發揮驗證和測試系統的作用，然後在半導體方面也有類似的表現，我認為這兩個市場有足夠的客戶重疊，並且我們的聯合能力可以為我們的客戶從研發、驗證到生產提供有意義的價值。將會看到機會。我們正在努力。我們還沒有準備好承諾和量化銷售協同效應，但這些肯定是重點，我們正在完成這個過程。

Great. And then just second question, I joined a bit late, so I apologize if you've covered this. On China, a lot of anxiety about the macro there. It doesn't look like you're positioned in the areas that -- like real estate that are having the most pressure. But just what are the expectations? What are the opportunities over the near term?

偉大的。然後是第二個問題，我加入得有點晚，所以如果你已經報道了這個問題，我深表歉意。關於中國，人們對宏觀經濟有許多擔憂。看起來你不是處於壓力最大的領域，例如房地產。但期望是什麼？短期內有哪些機會？

Yes. We grew high single digits in the quarter in China sales. We expect in that high -- mid- to high single digits for the year. Our business continues to be relatively robust, again, aligned, Deane, to those same macro secular drivers that we're seeing globally. It's no different in China. Perhaps the end markets are slightly different, specialty chemicals and a few other things. But our position is very strong. Our regionalization strategy has been very strong. And we expect to continue to win in China as we go through the year. Ram, anything?

是的。本季我們在中國的銷售額實現了高個位數成長。我們預計今年的成長率將達到中高個位數。迪恩，我們的業務仍然相對強勁，與我們在全球看到的相同的宏觀長期驅動因素保持一致。在中國也不例外。也許終端市場略有不同，包括特種化學品和其他一些東西。但我們的地位非常穩固。我們的區域化策略非常強大。我們預計今年將繼續在中國取得勝利。拉姆，有什麼事嗎？

Yes. No, you said it. I think in our core process hybrid business, Power and Chemical will drive the growth. I mean, obviously, what's not in the underlying numbers is Test & Measurement. Test & Measurement is consistent with discrete. Off to a tougher start in China, but expecting a second half recovery, consistent with what we're seeing with the Discrete business.

是的。不，你說過了。我認為在我們的核心製程混合業務中，電力和化工將推動成長。我的意思是，顯然，底層數字中沒有的是測試和測量。測試和測量與離散一致。中國的開局較為艱難，但預計下半年將出現復甦，這與我們在離散業務中看到的情況一致。

The next question comes from Joe O'Dea from Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe O'Dea。

Just in terms of the remaining 9 months of the year and the guide, obviously off to a strong start. But organically, any change in how you're thinking about that versus 3 months ago? It seems like not much change in what's implied in the organic growth rate. If anything, I think the math would suggest the margins could have ticked down a touch. But I just want to make sure, is the message that the last 9 months of the year, no real change in kind of the organic side of the expectations?

僅就今年剩餘 9 個月和指南而言，顯然已經有了一個良好的開端。但從有機角度來看，與 3 個月前相比，您的想法有什麼改變嗎？有機成長率似乎沒有太大變化。如果說有什麼不同的話，我認為數學表明利潤率可能會下降。但我只是想確定一下，今年最後 9 個月的消息是否表明預期的有機方面沒有真正的變化？

No. We remain very positive on the environment. Obviously, we couple that with the strong execution by our teams. But in terms of the organic outlook, no change really.

不會。我們對環境仍然非常積極。顯然，我們將其與我們團隊的強大執行力結合起來。但就有機前景而言，實際上沒有改變。

Okay. And then related to the strength in Measurement and analytical. I understand some commentary on easier comps, but the stacks did improve sequentially. And so as it relates to supply chain, where are you on a normalization? I mean the orders up high single digits is a pretty encouraging number. Are you at a point now where there's still some pent-up backlog to ship out? Or do you view it as having gotten pretty close to more normalization at this point?

好的。然後就牽涉到測量和分析的實力了。我理解一些關於更簡單的比賽的評論，但堆疊確實在連續改善。那麼，就供應鏈而言，您的正常化進展如何？我的意思是訂單達到高個位數是一個非常令人鼓舞的數字。現在您是否還有一些被壓抑的積壓訂單需要出貨？還是您認為目前已經非常接近正常化了？

Yes, the supply chains have normalized. So in terms of our ability to procure electronics and load factories and drive production out of factories, we feel that's normalized. Now certainly, in the Measurement and Analytical business, there is some overdue backlog that will ship through Q2. The easier comparisons and our ability to ship that backlog is what drove the 28% in Q1. You'll see that in the Measurement and Analytical business. That's the last business normalizing from a supply chain perspective. But the demand environment for that business still remains very healthy with orders up in the high single digits.

是的，供應鏈已經正常化。因此，就我們採購電子產品、裝載工廠以及推動工廠生產的能力而言，我們認為這是正常化的。當然，在測量和分析業務中，有一些逾期積壓的訂單將在第二季度發貨。更容易的比較和我們交付積壓訂單的能力推動了第一季 28% 的成長。您將在測量和分析業務中看到這一點。從供應鏈的角度來看，這是最後一次業務正常化。但該業務的需求環境仍然非常健康，訂單量呈現高個位數成長。

And the next question comes from Brett Linzey of Mizuho.

下一個問題來自瑞穗銀行的布雷特‧林澤 (Brett Linzey)。

Wanted to come back to the project funnel. I was hoping you might be able to give some color on the profitability of the growth platforms. And is there anything different or unique about the aftermarket or service attachment rates, and the way those deals were structured, and Emerson's wallet share there?

想回到專案漏斗。我希望您能夠對成長平台的獲利能力給予一些說明。售後市場或服務附加率、這些交易的結構方式以及艾默生的錢包份額有什麼不同或獨特的地方嗎？

No. Nothing really different. Look, the profitability certainly varies between MRO and project activity, but that's well known. I think you know that well. But in terms of the mix within the funnel, there's not really a significant difference between a growth platform and traditional project work there. Of course, we have a $150 billion installed base around the world. And with that, some of that is obtained through -- and managed through service contracts, a large portion of it, where we have commitments for replacement and maintenance with many of our global customers. And others are upgrades, activities and things of that sort.

不，沒什麼不同。看，MRO 和專案活動之間的盈利能力肯定有所不同，但這是眾所周知的。我想你很清楚這一點。但就通路內的組合而言，成長平台和傳統專案工作之間並沒有真正的顯著差異。當然，我們在全球擁有價值 1500 億美元的安裝基礎。其中一些是透過服務合約獲得和管理的，其中很大一部分是我們與許多全球客戶簽訂的更換和維護承諾。其他的是升級、活動之類的事情。

Okay. Great. And then just shifting to price/cost, I think the original guide was about 2 points. You had 2 points in the quarter. Has the expectation changed at all for the year? And then any movement on material or nonmaterial inflation that is shifting expectations at all on the cost side?

好的。偉大的。然後轉向價格/成本，我認為最初的指導大約是 2 分。本節你得到了 2 分。今年的預期有改變嗎？那麼物質或非物質通膨的任何變化是否會改變成本方面的預期呢？

No. Price is 2 points in the quarter, 2 points for the year. We feel good. No change there. In terms of our net material inflation, I think we're seeing continued opportunities that we're driving on the direct material side. The logistics costs have come down. We don't see any impact in terms of inflation or [it's] de minimis from the dynamics around what's going on with -- in the Red Sea or the Panama Canal. So we see NMI or net material inflation continuing to improve as we go through the year.

否。價格為季度 2 點，全年 2 點。我們感覺很好。那裡沒有變化。就我們的淨物質通膨而言，我認為我們在直接物質方面看到了持續的機會。物流成本下降了。我們沒有看到任何通貨膨脹方面的影響，或者紅海或巴拿馬運河周圍發生的事情的動態影響是微不足道的。因此，我們看到 NMI 或淨物質通膨在這一年中持續改善。

This concludes our question-and-answer session, and the conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

我們的問答環節到此結束，會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。