艾默生電氣 (EMR) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Emerson Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加艾默生 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Colleen Mettler, Vice President of Investor Relations at Emerson. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給我們的東道主、艾默生投資者關係副總裁科琳·梅特勒 (Colleen Mettler)。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Emerson's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. This morning, I am joined by: President and Chief Executive Officer, Lal Karsanbhai; Chief Financial Officer, Mike Baughman; and Chief Operating Officer, Ram Krishnan. As always, I encourage everyone to follow along with the slide presentation, which is available on our website.

早安，感謝您參加艾默生 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。今天上午，與我一起出席的還有：總裁兼執行長 Lal Karsanbhai；財務長麥克·鮑曼；和首席營運長拉姆·克里希南。一如既往，我鼓勵大家關注我們網站上的幻燈片簡報。

Please join me on Slide 2. This presentation may include forward-looking statements, which contain a degree of business risk and uncertainty. Please take time to read the safe harbor statement and note on the non-GAAP measures.

請和我一起觀看投影片 2。請花點時間閱讀安全港聲明並注意非公認會計準則措施。

I will now pass the call over to Emerson's President and CEO, Lal Karsanbhai, for his opening remarks.

現在我將把電話轉給艾默生總裁兼執行長 Lal Karsanbhai，讓他致開幕詞。

Thank you, Colleen. Good morning. I'd like to begin by thanking the Emerson's global team for yet again delivering very strong operating results. It is a testament of the strength of our people, the culture we are building, the portfolio we have created and the value of the Emerson Management System. I would also like to thank the Emerson Board of Directors for your continued support of the management team and to our shareholders for the trust you place in us.

謝謝你，科琳。早安.首先，我要感謝艾默生的全球團隊再次取得了非常強勁的營運表現。它證明了我們員工的實力、我們正在建立的文化、我們創造的產品組合以及艾默生管理系統的價值。我還要感謝艾默生董事會對管理團隊的持續支持，並感謝股東對我們的信任。

The second quarter was characterized by strong operating performance, which exceeded our expectations. We continue to have confidence in the underlying market conditions, driven by demand in the process and hybrid markets, aligned with secular macro trends: energy security and affordability, sustainability, nearshoring and digital transformation.

第二季的經營業績強勁，超出了我們的預期。在過程和混合市場需求的推動下，我們繼續對基本市場狀況充滿信心，這與長期宏觀趨勢一致：能源安全和可負擔性、永續性、近岸外包和數位轉型。

The P&L execution was nearly flawless in the quarter. Underlying sales grew 8%, operations leveraged at 54%, expanding EBITDA by 140 basis points to 26% and delivering 25% EPS growth and 32% free cash flow growth. 2024 is the year of execution with no major portfolio moves planned. And through the first half, we feel confident and have raised our outlook for the year.

本季的損益執行幾乎完美無缺。基礎銷售額成長 8%，營運槓桿率為 54%，EBITDA 成長 140 個基點，達到 26%，每股盈餘成長 25%，自由現金流成長 32%。 2024 年是執行年，沒有計劃進行重大投資組合變動。整個上半年，我們充滿信心，並提高了對今年的展望。

We are energized about the power of our differentiated automation portfolio. Our NI team, led by Ritu Favre, continues to drive the integration plan and have again accelerated cost-out activities in response to a slower-than-anticipated market recovery. We will now deliver $100 million of synergies in 2024.

我們對我們差異化的自動化產品組合的力量感到充滿活力。我們的 NI 團隊在 Ritu Favre 的領導下，繼續推動整合計劃，並再次加快成本削減活動，以應對慢於預期的市場復甦。我們現在將在 2024 年實現 1 億美元的綜效。

Further, I'm excited about David Baker's appointment as CFO of AspenTech. Dave is an experienced global automation CFO and a 27-year veteran of Emerson. He will bring a degree of structure, forecasting accuracy and work with Antonio Pietri to reinforce a diligent management process.

此外，我對 David Baker 被任命為 AspenTech 財務長感到非常興奮。 Dave 是一位經驗豐富的全球自動化財務官，在艾默生工作了 27 年。他將帶來一定程度的結構和預測準確性，並與 Antonio Pietri 合作，加強勤奮的管理流程。

Lastly, I remain excited about what we can accomplish at Emerson. Our technology stack, comprised of intelligent devices, control and software, is highly differentiated in the marketplace, delivering scaled value to our customers. Further, innovation is alive and well at Emerson. And we continue to stretch the boundaries of the possible in automation.

最後，我對我們在艾默生能夠取得的成就感到興奮。我們的技術堆疊由智慧設備、控制和軟體組成，在市場上具有高度差異化，為我們的客戶提供了規模化的價值。此外，艾默生的創新充滿活力。我們不斷拓展自動化可能的界限。

Please turn to Slide 3. Emerson and our Board are committed to ongoing Board refreshment. And today, we have the privilege of announcing the newest member elected to our Board of Directors. Calvin Butler is the President and Chief Executive Officer of Exelon, the nation's largest utility company by customer count, and a member of its Board of Directors.

請參閱投影片 3。今天，我們很榮幸地宣布當選為董事會的最新成員。 Calvin Butler 是美國客戶數量最大的公用事業公司 Exelon 的總裁兼首席執行官，也是該公司的董事會成員。

As part of Exelon and its operating companies, Calvin has held senior management roles in executive management, operations, corporate affairs and regulatory and external affairs. He is a passionate advocate for community equity. And his unique expertise in reliable, clean and affordable energy solutions will benefit Emerson as we continue to enable the energy transition and decarbonization for our broad customer base.

作為 Exelon 及其營運公司的一部分，Calvin 曾在執行管理、營運、公司事務以及監管和外部事務方面擔任高階管理職務。他是社區公平的熱情倡導者。他在可靠、清潔和經濟實惠的能源解決方案方面的獨特專業知識將使艾默生受益，因為我們將繼續為廣大客戶群實現能源轉型和脫碳。

He also has a local connection as he was born and raised in St. Louis and graduated with a law degree from Washington University School of Law. Calvin will officially join our Board on August 1, 2024. This will expand Emerson's Board to 12 members, half of whom are women or people of color. Having the right skills represented on Emerson's Board is critical to our continued success. And we are excited to have Calvin join us.

他在聖路易斯出生長大，並畢業於華盛頓大學法學院並獲得法律學位，因此與當地也有聯繫。 Calvin 將於 2024 年 8 月 1 日正式加入我們的董事會。艾默生董事會中擁有合適的技能人員對於我們持續成功至關重要。我們很高興卡爾文加入我們。

Please turn to Slide 4. The second quarter exceeded our expectations and strong results highlight our continued focus on execution. Sales, operating leverage and adjusted earnings all exceeded Q2 expectations. Stronger volumes were driven by outstanding operational performance and more backlog conversion than expected. Price/cost and business segment mix were also more favorable than expected.

請參閱投影片 4。銷售額、營運槓桿和調整後收益均超出第二季預期。出色的營運績效和超出預期的積壓訂單轉換推動了銷售的成長。價格/成本和業務部門組合也比預期更有利。

Orders in the first half met our low single-digit growth expectations with a book-to-bill greater than 1. For the first half, process and hybrid saw mid-single-digit growth while, as expected, discrete saw a decline of mid-single digit.

上半年的訂單滿足了我們較低的個位數成長預期，訂單出貨比大於1。位數的下降。

The demand environment for process and hybrid markets remains favorable. Discrete Automation orders were down year-over-year on a tough comparison but were up sequentially low single digits. And we now expect their orders to turn positive in Q4, a quarter delayed from our original expectation.

流程和混合市場的需求環境仍然有利。離散自動化訂單在嚴格的比較中同比下降，但環比增長較低的個位數。我們現在預計他們的訂單將在第四季度轉正，比我們最初的預期推遲了一個季度。

While not impacting underlying, Test & Measurement orders were softer than anticipated in Q2, down 15%. For the second half, we expect mid-single-digit underlying growth in orders and low single-digit to mid-single-digit growth for the full year, led by process and hybrid resilience with delayed discrete improvement.

雖然沒有影響基本要素，但第二季測試和測量訂單比預期疲軟，下降了 15%。對於下半年，我們預計訂單將實現中個位數的潛在增長，全年將實現低個位數到中個位數的增長，這主要是由流程和混合彈性以及延遲的離散改進帶動的。

Test & Measurement continues to perform and delivered slightly better-than-expected Q2 results for both sales and earnings. The turn to positive orders in this business is now expected in the first half of 2025, 2 quarters delayed than our original expectation.

測試與測量部門持續表現出色，第二季的銷售和獲利結果均略優於預期。目前預計該業務將在 2025 年上半年實現正訂單，比我們原來的預期推遲了兩個季度。

We are seeing continued softness in transportation and semiconductor demand driven by constrained CapEx environment while aerospace and defense is expected to be positive due to continued strength in government research and defense spending. This extended downturn enables another acceleration of synergy actions. And we now expect to realize $100 million of synergies in 2024, up from our prior expectation of $80 million as we pull in additional actions that will begin this quarter that were in the plan for 2025.

我們看到，由於資本支出環境受限，交通和半導體需求持續疲軟，而由於政府研究和國防支出持續強勁，航空航太和國防預計將出現積極增長。這種持續的低迷使得協同行動再次加速。現在，我們預計將在 2024 年實現 1 億美元的協同效應，高於我們先前預期的 8,000 萬美元，因為我們將在本季開始採取 2025 年計劃中的額外行動。

Our differentiated portfolio is driving value creation for our shareholders. While we remain cautious on the timing of a recovery in discrete end markets and were slightly impacted by AspenTech's latest guidance revision, Emerson's first half performance, stable process and hybrid demand and additional self-help actions provide confidence to increase our full year guidance.

我們的差異化投資組合正在為股東創造價值。雖然我們對離散終端市場的復甦時機保持謹慎，並受到 AspenTech 最新指引修訂的輕微影響，但艾默生上半年的業績、穩定的工藝和混合需求以及額外的自助行動為我們提高全年指引提供了信心。

We are increasing our underlying sales guidance to 5.5% to 6.5% and raising our adjusted EPS expectations to $5.40 to $5.50. We will remain focused on execution and integration this year, leveraging our Emerson Management System. And we are energized as we look ahead at the strength of our new portfolio to deliver differentiated results. Our leading technology and exposure to secular growth markets paved the way for continued value creation.

我們將基本銷售指引提高至 5.5% 至 6.5%，並將調整後每股盈餘預期提高至 5.40 美元至 5.50 美元。今年我們將繼續專注於執行和整合，並利用我們的艾默生管理系統。當我們展望新產品組合的實力以實現差異化成果時，我們充滿活力。我們領先的技術和對長期成長市場的了解為持續創造價值鋪平了道路。

Please turn to Slide 5. Emerson's Q2 exceeded guidance in underlying sales and profitability. Underlying sales for the quarter grew 8% with our process and hybrid businesses again exceeding expectations and better backlog conversion than initially expected. Energy security and affordability and sustainability commitments drove strong performance in energy, LNG, chemical and power.

請參閱投影片 5。本季的基礎銷售額成長了 8%，我們的流程和混合業務再次超出預期，積壓訂單轉換率也比最初預期好。能源安全、可負擔性和永續發展承諾推動了能源、液化天然氣、化學和電力領域的強勁表現。

Hybrid end market strength continued with life sciences project momentum in North America, Europe and Asia and robust metals and mining activity. Factory automation demand remained soft with continued weakness in China. Europe, Asia and the Middle East were particularly strong in the quarter with persistent strength in process markets, driven by energy transition and traditional energy markets.

北美、歐洲和亞洲的生命科學計畫勢頭強勁，金屬和採礦活動強勁，混合終端市場持續強勁。由於中國持續疲軟，工廠自動化需求依然疲軟。在能源轉型和傳統能源市場的推動下，歐洲、亞洲和中東在本季表現尤為強勁，加工市場持續強勁。

One noteworthy example is India, which has seen double-digit growth in 5 of the last 6 quarters, including this quarter, driven by broad economic expansion across multiple segments. Our growth platforms also continued to perform strongly, underlying sales up double digit in the quarter.

一個值得注意的例子是印度，在多個領域廣泛的經濟擴張的推動下，印度在過去 6 個季度中有 5 個季度實現了兩位數成長，包括本季。我們的成長平台也持續表現強勁，本季的基礎銷售額成長了兩位數。

Our profitability continues to reflect the strength of our new portfolio. Gross margin has significantly improved since we started our portfolio journey when I took over as CEO in 2021. Gross margins at that time were in the low 40s. And in this fiscal year, we expect to achieve gross margins over 50%, nearly a 1,000 basis point improvement. In Q2, gross margin was 52.2%, a 430 basis point improvement from the prior year.

我們的獲利能力繼續反映了我們新投資組合的實力。自 2021 年我接任執行長以來，我們開始了投資組合之旅，毛利率已顯著提高。在本財年，我們預計毛利率將達到 50% 以上，提高近 1,000 個基點。第二季毛利率為52.2%，較前一年提高430個基點。

Operating leverage was 54%, stronger than our expected low to mid-40s, again due to stronger volumes and favorable price/cost and mix. Adjusted EPS also came in ahead of plan at $1.36, $0.10 above the top end of our guide and up 25% from 2023. Emerson generated free cash flow of $675 million, up 32% year-over-year.

營運槓桿率為 54%，高於我們預期的 40 左右的低點至 40 左右，這同樣是由於銷量增加以及有利的價格/成本和組合。調整後每股收益也超出計劃，為 1.36 美元，比我們的指導上限高出 0.10 美元，較 2023 年增長 25%。

Mike Baughman will go through additional details on our results in a few slides. We are pleased with our Q2 performance and the persistent strength in our process and hybrid businesses, giving us additional confidence as we look to the rest of the year.

麥克鮑曼（Mike Baughman）將在幾張投影片中詳細介紹我們的結果。我們對第二季的業績以及流程和混合業務的持續實力感到滿意，這讓我們對今年剩餘時間充滿信心。

Please turn to Slide 6. Our strategic project funnel continues to grow and now sits at $10.8 billion, up approximately $400 million from Q1, with our growth programs up by $300 million and representing nearly 2/3 of the funnel. The funnel growth is in line with the constructive CapEx environment for our process and hybrid customers. This also reflects our exposure to robust secular trends as the increase primarily came from projects supporting sustainability and decarbonization and energy security and affordability.

請參閱投影片 6。通路成長符合我們流程和混合客戶的建設性資本支出環境。這也反映了我們面臨強勁的長期趨勢，因為成長主要來自支持永續發展和脫碳以及能源安全和可負擔性的項目。

In the second quarter, Emerson was awarded approximately $350 million of project content with the increase in traditional energy stemming from the award of several large offshore vessels in Brazil. Our growth programs continue to demonstrate success. And I want to highlight three key project wins. First, Emerson and AspenTech were awarded an automation pilot project for a large chemical company in China. This is an important synergy win as the customer is developing a pathway to software-driven autonomous operations.

第二季度，艾默生獲得了約3.5億美元的專案內容，其中傳統能源專案的增加源自於巴西幾艘大型海工船舶的授予。我們的成長計劃繼續取得成功。我想強調三個關鍵項目的勝利。首先，艾默生和 AspenTech 獲得了中國一家大型化學公司的自動化試點計畫。這是一場重要的協同勝利，因為客戶正在開發一條由軟體驅動的自主營運途徑。

The multiyear agreement is an integrated solution for Emerson and AspenTech software that will provide high-fidelity hybrid models and control automation for optimizing process operations based on real-time production data to increase product yield and reduce energy consumption. This example showcases the unique ability of the integrated Emerson and AspenTech portfolio to provide differentiated solutions for our customers.

這項多年期協議是艾默生和 AspenTech 軟體的整合解決方案，該解決方案將提供高保真混合模型和控制自動化，以根據即時生產數據優化流程操作，從而提高產品產量並降低能耗。此範例展示了艾默生和 AspenTech 整合產品組合為客戶提供差異化解決方案的獨特能力。

In the energy transition space, Emerson was selected to support Shell's proposed Polaris carbon capture project in Canada. Polaris, subject to final investment decision by Shell, would capture CO2 from the refinery and chemical plant located at the Shell Energy & Chemicals Park in Scotford, Alberta. Emerson is providing much of our leading technology, including instruments and valves.

在能源轉型領域，艾默生被選中支持殼牌在加拿大提出的北極星碳捕獲計畫。北極星公司將從位於艾伯塔省斯科特福德的殼牌能源化工園區的煉油廠和化工廠捕獲二氧化碳，具體取決於殼牌的最終投資決定。艾默生提供了我們許多的領先技術，包括儀器和閥門。

And finally, Emerson was chosen to automate a $4 billion manufacturing complex being built in Indiana by a large U.S.-based life science customer. Emerson will provide our leading DeltaV control systems and software portfolio, including a 5-year subscription agreement for our DeltaV MES.

最後，艾默生被美國生命科學大客戶選中，為其在印第安納州建造的耗資 40 億美元的製造綜合體提供自動化服務。艾默生將提供我們領先的 DeltaV 控制系統和軟體產品組合，包括 DeltaV MES 的 5 年訂閱協議。

Please turn to Slide 7. This is a transformative moment for the U.S. power industry as data centers are driving electricity demand increases not seen since the early 2000s. At the same time, power producers are retiring carbon-intensive assets in a drive to decarbonize their operations and investing in the resilience and optimization of the grid. The grid is also experiencing an unprecedented shift from the unidirectional grid of the past to a bidirectional intelligent grid of the future, which will be increasingly supported by intermittent power sources.

請參閱投影片 7。同時，電力生產商正在淘汰碳密集型資產，以推動其營運脫碳，並投資於電網的彈性和最佳化。電網也正在經歷前所未有的轉變，從過去的單向電網轉變，未來將越來越多地得到間歇性電源的支援。

There are multiple factors driving this generational increase in U.S. electricity demand. And data centers alone account for nearly 1/3 of all new U.S. electrical demand. AI data center racks consume significantly more power than traditional data centers with a search on ChatGPT consuming 6 to 10 times the power of a traditional search on Google. Hyperscalers are revising CapEx estimates upward and increasing annual CapEx significantly in 2024 and build their AI infrastructure. This is expected to continue for multiple years. The increase in demand is real. And it is happening today.

推動美國電力需求世代成長的因素有很多。光是資料中心就占美國所有新增電力需求的近 1/3。 AI 資料中心機架的能耗明顯高於傳統資料中心，ChatGPT 上的搜尋能耗是 Google 上傳統搜尋能耗的 6 到 10 倍。超大規模企業正在上調資本支出預估，並在 2024 年大幅增加年度資本支出，並建立人工智慧基礎設施。預計這種情況將持續多年。需求的增加是真實的。而這一切正在今天發生。

Utilities in key regions across the U.S. are revising low-growth estimates upward materially from recent years' estimates. Georgia Power issued a revised assessment in which projected load growth was 17 times greater than previously forecast, resulting in approximately 30% greater total winter peak demand for the 2030-2031 winter. Dominion Energy has been a key beneficiary of traditional data center growth and forecasting another tailwind for AI data centers more than doubling their 10-year average annual summer peak load growth from 2022. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation recently put out their annual 9-year growth forecast with new demand more than doubling from the prior year forecast.

美國主要地區的公用事業公司正在大幅上調低成長預期，較近年來的預期大幅上調。喬治亞電力公司發布了修訂後的評估，其中預計負載增長是先前預測的 17 倍，導致 2030-2031 年冬季的冬季高峰總需求增加約 30%。 Dominion Energy 一直是傳統資料中心成長的主要受益者，並預測人工智慧資料中心的另一個推動力是，從2022 年起，其10 年夏季尖峰負載年平均成長率將增加一倍以上。性公司最近發布了他們的9 年年度報告新需求成長預測較上年預測增加一倍以上。

While Emerson does not have material content in data centers, Emerson is a key player in the power industry for generation, transmission and distribution, all of which are set to be beneficiaries. Approximately 9% of Emerson sales are in power. And while we have a strong portfolio across our technology stack, I want to highlight the software and control layer, which is relevant across the power landscape from generation to transmission and distribution.

雖然艾默生在資料中心方面沒有實質內容，但艾默生是發電、輸電和配電電力行業的關鍵參與者，所有這些都將成為受益者。艾默生大約 9% 的銷售額來自電力。雖然我們在技術堆疊上擁有強大的產品組合，但我想強調軟體和控制層，這與從發電到輸電和配電的整個電力領域有關。

The Ovation automation platform and Ovation Green portfolio of renewable solutions are purpose-built for power generation greenfield builds and plant modernization applications. Together, our Ovation automation technology and Green solutions automate approximately 50% of North America and 20% of global power generation.

Ovation 自動化平台和 Ovation Green 再生解決方案組合專為發電綠地建造和工廠現代化應用而設計。我們的 Ovation 自動化技術和綠色解決方案共同實現了北美約 50% 和全球 20% 發電的自動化。

Emerson's strategic project funnel in power is up 45% year-over-year, reflecting the emerging potential. And I'd like to mention a key win from the quarter. Emerson was selected by a large Midwest utility to modernize nine sites with the latest Ovation hardware, software and cybersecurity solutions. We were awarded based on our demonstrated ability to execute plant modernizations while ensuring safety, quality and reliability, all vitally important in the power industry.

艾默生的電力戰略項目漏斗年增 45%，反映出新興潛力。我想提一下本季的一項關鍵勝利。艾默生被中西部一家大型公用事業公司選中，使用最新的 Ovation 硬體、軟體和網路安全解決方案對九個站點進行現代化改造。我們之所以獲獎，是因為我們在執行工廠現代化的同時確保安全、品質和可靠性的能力，這對於電力產業來說至關重要。

With the increasing mix of generation sources and rise of distributed resources and microgrids, utilities must now also manage the integration of varying and bidirectional power flows. AspenTech's Digital Grid Management, or DGM, software also plays a critical role in managing the ever-increasing complexity of today's grid to maintain stability and control through real-time power management and demand-side management software. DGM is a strong participant in these markets with approximately 40% share in North America and approximately 20% globally.

隨著發電來源的不斷增加以及分散式資源和微電網的興起，公用事業公司現在還必須管理變化和雙向電力流的整合。 AspenTech 的數位電網管理 (DGM) 軟體在管理當今日益複雜的電網方面也發揮著關鍵作用，透過即時電力管理和需求面管理軟體來保持穩定性和控制。 DGM 是這些市場的重要參與者，在北美佔有約 40% 的份額，在全球佔有約 20% 的份額。

The necessity of grid digitalization is driving investments in the advanced capabilities that software provides with the market forecasted to grow in the high-teens. Emerson's leading products and application expertise across the power landscape make us well positioned to capture the coming investments both in the U.S. and globally. And we are excited to watch the future of power generation, transmission and distribution unfold.

電網數位化的必要性正在推動對軟體提供的先進功能的投資，預計市場將以十幾歲的速度成長。艾默生在整個電力領域的領先產品和應用專業知識使我們能夠很好地抓住美國和全球即將到來的投資。我們很高興看到發電、輸電和配電的未來正在展開。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Mike Baughman.

現在，我將把電話轉給麥克鮑曼。

Thanks, Lal, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 8 to discuss our second quarter financial results. Underlying sales growth was 8%, led by our process and hybrid businesses. Price contributed approximately 3 points of growth, slightly higher than expected due to the mix of our shipments this quarter. Growth was led by Europe, which was up 12%, and Asia, Middle East and Africa, up 11%. The Americas also had solid growth, up 4%.

謝謝拉爾，大家早安。請參閱投影片 8 討論我們第二季的財務表現。在我們的流程和混合業務的推動下，基本銷售額成長了 8%。由於本季出貨量的混合，價格貢獻了約 3 個百分點的成長，略高於預期。其中歐洲成長 12%，亞洲、中東和非洲成長 11%。美洲也實現了穩健成長，成長了 4%。

Intelligent Devices and Software and Control grew by 6% and 14%, respectively. AspenTech sales increased significantly over the prior year, up 21% on an underlying basis. Discrete Automation was down mid-single digits as expected due to continued market softness and against a tough prior year comp. Test & Measurement, which is not included in the underlying measure, contributed $367 million to our net sales, exceeding expectations for the quarter on stronger backlog conversion. Backlog was essentially flat to the prior quarter at $7.55 billion.

智慧型設備和軟體與控制分別成長 6% 和 14%。 AspenTech 銷售額較上年大幅成長，基本成長 21%。由於市場持續疲軟，且與去年同期相比，離散自動化業務如預期下降了中個位數。測試與測量（未包含在基本指標中）為我們的淨銷售額貢獻了 3.67 億美元，由於積壓訂單轉換強勁，超出了本季度的預期。積壓訂單為 75.5 億美元，與上一季基本持平。

Adjusted segment EBITDA margin improved 140 basis points to 26%. And as Lal mentioned, gross profit margins of 52.2% contributed to this margin expansion. Leverage on volume, favorable mix, price, net material deflation and productivity programs all contributed to the margin improvement. Operating leverage, excluding Test & Measurement, was 54%, exceeding expectations. Test & Measurement adjusted segment EBITDA margin was 21.4%, above expectations, driven by leverage on slightly higher sales volume, mix and higher cost actions.

調整後的部門 EBITDA 利潤率提高了 140 個基點，達到 26%。正如 Lal 所提到的，52.2% 的毛利率促成了利潤率的擴張。數量、有利的組合、價格、淨材料通貨緊縮和生產力計劃的槓桿作用都促進了利潤率的提高。營運槓桿（不包括測試與測量）為 54%，超出預期。測試與測量部門調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 21.4%，高於預期，這得益於銷售、產品組合和更高成本行動的槓桿作用。

Adjusted earnings per share grew 25% to $1.36. And I will discuss additional details on adjusted EPS on the next chart. Lastly, free cash flow improved 32% to $675 million, exceeding expectations, driven by earnings and improved inventory levels. Acquisition-related costs, integration activities and higher CapEx reduced the quarter's free cash flow by approximately $70 million.

調整後每股收益成長 25% 至 1.36 美元。我將在下一張圖表上討論調整後每股收益的更多細節。最後，在獲利和庫存水準改善的推動下，自由現金流成長了 32%，達到 6.75 億美元，超出預期。收購相關成本、整合活動和更高的資本支出使本季的自由現金流減少了約 7,000 萬美元。

Please turn to Slide 9. Adjusted EPS growth of $0.27 was driven entirely by operations as other nonoperating items netted to 0. Software and Control led the growth, contributing $0.18, and Intelligent Devices contributed $0.09. Overall, adjusted EPS grew 25% year-on-year to $1.36.

請參閱投影片 9。總體而言，調整後每股收益年增 25% 至 1.36 美元。

Please turn to Slide 10 for details on our updated guidance for Q3 and 2024. Underlying sales are now expected to grow 5.5% to 6.5%, which raises the bottom of our February range. Our process and hybrid businesses are performing well and support the outlook for the rest of the year. We still expect underlying sales of our Discrete Automation segment to turn positive in Q4. And we are watching the orders progression, which we believe is now delayed by 1 quarter.

請參閱投影片 10，以詳細了解我們對第三季和 2024 年的最新指引。我們的流程和混合業務表現良好，並支撐了今年剩餘時間的前景。我們仍然預計離散自動化部門的基本銷售額將在第四季轉正。我們正在觀察訂單進度，我們認為現在推遲了一個季度。

Reported net sales growth is expected to be 15% to 16% with Test & Measurement contributing approximately 10 points of growth or approximately $1.5 billion in sales, the low end of the February guide, offset by a 0.5 point drag from FX. Incremental margins are held at low to mid-40s, which suggests mid-30s incrementals for the second half. The second half will see a change in mix with higher project-related shipments and changes in segment and geographic mix.

報告的淨銷售額增長預計為15% 至16%，其中測試與測量部門貢獻約10 個百分點的增長或約15 億美元的銷售額，這是2 月份指南的低端，但被外匯0.5 個百分點的拖累所抵消。增量利潤率保持在 40 多歲左右的低水平，這表明下半年的增量為 30 多歲左右。下半年將出現組合變化，項目相關出貨量增加以及細分市場和地理組合的變化。

Adjusted EPS has increased to $5.40 to $5.50. Test & Measurement is still expected to contribute $0.40 to $0.45 as we accelerate synergy activities. We now expect to have $100 million of synergies realized this year. AspenTech lowered their guidance yesterday afternoon. And we have incorporated the latest revisions into our guide. We now expect AspenTech to deliver $0.30 to $0.32 for the year versus the $0.32 to $0.34 in our February guidance.

調整後每股收益增加至 5.40 美元至 5.50 美元。隨著我們加速協同活動，測試與測量預計仍將貢獻 0.40 至 0.45 美元。我們現在預計今年將實現 1 億美元的綜效。 AspenTech 昨天下午降低了指導值。我們已將最新修訂納入我們的指南中。我們現在預計 AspenTech 今年的業績為 0.30 至 0.32 美元，而我們 2 月的指導為 0.32 至 0.34 美元。

Free cash flow performance in the first half of the year and our updated earnings projections support free cash flow for the year of approximately $2.7 billion. Share repurchase, dividend and tax rate expectations are unchanged from February.

上半年的自由現金流表現和我們最新的獲利預測支持今年約 27 億美元的自由現金流。股票回購、股利和稅率預期與 2 月相比沒有變化。

For the third quarter, we expect underlying sales growth between 3% and 4.5% and leverage in the mid-30s due to the project and geographic mix I described earlier. Adjusted earnings per share is expected at $1.38 to $1.42. And finally, Test & Measurement sales and earnings per share contribution is expected to be at similar levels we saw in quarter 2 as we watch orders carefully.

由於我之前描述的項目和地理組合，我們預計第三季的基本銷售成長將在 3% 至 4.5% 之間，槓桿率將在 30 多歲左右。調整後每股收益預計為 1.38 美元至 1.42 美元。最後，當我們仔細觀察訂單時，測試與測量銷售額和每股收益貢獻預計將與我們在第二季度看到的水平類似。

Our first half performance exceeded expectations, and we are excited to continue delivering strong results. Our transformed portfolio is meaningfully improved with higher profitability driven by gross profit margins above 50% and higher organic sales growth driven by secular trends. And our Emerson Management System continues to drive operational excellence.

我們上半年的表現超出了預期，我們很高興能夠繼續取得強勁的業績。我們轉型後的產品組合得到了顯著改善，毛利率超過 50%，獲利能力提高，長期趨勢推動有機銷售成長加快。我們的艾默生管理系統持續推動卓越營運。

With that, I'll turn it over to the Q&A portion of our call.

這樣，我將把它轉入我們電話會議的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from Davis, Scott, Melius Research.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Davis、Scott、Melius Research。

A lot of good detail in the slides. But I wanted to start with just a sense of the synergies that you're seeing and just get a little bit more color on what you're getting as far as structural cost-out, what may have to come back when revenues recover and how we might think about what really that asset looks like in kind of a more normalized situation from a profit perspective.

幻燈片中有很多很好的細節。但我想先了解您所看到的協同效應，並進一步了解您所獲得的結構性成本支出、收入恢復時可能需要恢復的內容以及如何恢復。的情況下該資產到底是什麼樣子。

Yes, Scott. I'll say a few words and let Ram add some color to this. First and foremost, we're very excited about the company. It's a far better company than we expected in terms of the quality of people, the quality of the technology, the loyalty of the customer base and the opportunity to grow and expand as a leader in the industry. So we're very pleased. We have a great management team in place. And we're most pleased about is the responsiveness of that management team to the market conditions.

是的，斯科特。我會說幾句話，讓拉姆為此增添一些色彩。首先，我們對這家公司感到非常興奮。就人員素質、技術品質、客戶群忠誠度以及作為行業領導者的成長和擴張機會而言，這是一家比我們預期的要好得多的公司。所以我們非常高興。我們擁有一支優秀的管理團隊。我們最滿意的是該管理團隊對市場狀況的回應能力。

This is now being run as an Emerson company. And they've gotten ahead of the activities around cost takeout in a very diligent way, this was all laid out prior to close with the teams. So we're essentially working down a playbook. We've now moved into some of the actions, as I referenced, that were outlined for 2025 that have been moved forward. But none of these are elements that we believe we necessarily have to add back. This is really driving around efficiency in the company and position it to the SG&A structure to be more competitive, a little leaner on a go-forward basis. Ram, if you don't mind?

該公司現在作為艾默生公司運營。他們以非常勤奮的方式提前開展了圍繞成本支出的活動，這一切都是在與團隊結束之前就安排好的。所以我們本質上是在製定一個劇本。正如我所提到的，我們現在已經開始實施一些為 2025 年制定的行動，這些行動已經向前邁進。但我們認為這些元素都不是必須加回來的。這確實提高了公司的效率，並將其定位到 SG&A 結構中，使其更具競爭力，在未來的基礎上更加精簡。拉姆，如果你不介意的話？

Yes. And just to add to that, I think the balanced approach around G&A, the optimization of the go-to-market, optimizing and focusing the R&D efforts on critical growth vectors that are going to pay a lot of benefit for us as the market recovers. And that's really what we've been focused on. Obviously, we are seeing opportunities in logistics and supply chain, which is additional to what we had originally planned.

是的。除此之外，我認為圍繞著一般管理費用的平衡方法、優化上市、優化研發工作並將其重點放在關鍵的成長向量上，隨著市場的復甦，這些向量將為我們帶來許多好處。這確實是我們一直在關注的焦點。顯然，我們看到了物流和供應鏈方面的機會，這超出了我們最初的計劃。

But net-net, the $185 million we've committed to is a programmatic approach that is divided across these 4 segments. And we've been able to accelerate these actions just given the environment we're in, mostly because they were all well planned out and we are able to pull forward these initiatives, given that they've been thought out and the teams are actioning them at a rapid pace.

但是，我們承諾投入的 1.85 億美元是一種程序化方法，分為這 4 個部分。鑑於我們所處的環境，我們能夠加速這些行動，主要是因為它們都經過精心策劃，並且我們能夠推進這些舉措，因為它們已經經過深思熟慮並且團隊正在採取行動他們以很快的速度。

That's helpful. Guys, I'm looking at Slide 7 at the DGM and the Ovation. And give us a sense of how this upgrade cycle works. The power demand, obviously, and grid, I think we're all quite aware of what's going there. But does it require -- and I mean, maybe just a little bit more color on how these two, DGM and Ovation, kind of -- do they integrate? Do they sell together?

這很有幫助。夥計們，我正在看 DGM 和 Ovation 上的幻燈片 7。讓我們來了解這個升級週期是如何運作的。顯然，電力需求和電網，我想我們都非常清楚那裡發生了什麼。但它是否需要——我的意思是，也許只是多一點關於 DGM 和 Ovation 這兩者如何整合的色彩？他們一起賣嗎？

Is there any way to kind of get more benefit, I guess, from having the two assets versus the one? And it's a little bit of an open-ended question. I'm just trying to get a sense of the materiality in the upgrade cycle here. But maybe the best way to start with that is just to understand if those assets actually can integrate and work together and if that's a benefit to the utility.

我想，有什麼辦法可以從擁有這兩種資產而不是一種資產中獲得更多的好處嗎？這是一個有點開放式的問題。我只是想了解升級週期的重要性。但也許最好的開始方法是了解這些資產是否真的可以整合並協同工作，以及這是否對公用事業有好處。

Yes. No, certainly would be happy to comment. I think there's three very important elements. I think element of materiality relates to the high growth in the outlook of projects and activity. We saw that 45% expansion in the funnel. We haven't seen that level of activity in power generation in a long time with a positive growth in North America again driven by the data center demand that we outlined. Secondly, inside of the generation capacity, there certainly are opportunities for optimization software. That is an area that really is untapped. And that's a synergy opportunity that exists between Ovation and AspenTech.

是的。不，當然很樂意發表評論。我認為有三個非常重要的要素。我認為重要性要素與專案和活動前景的高成長有關。我們看到漏斗擴大了 45%。我們已經很久沒有看到這樣的發電活動水準了，在我們概述的資料中心需求的推動下，北美地區再次出現了正成長。其次，在發電能力內部，肯定有優化軟體的機會。這是一個真正尚未開發的領域。這就是 Ovation 和 AspenTech 之間存在的協同機會。

And then thirdly, certainly, the leverage of a strength in our utilities, the customer base, takes us outside the walls of the plants into the transmission and distribution. And even though there are not technology synergies between DGM and Ovation per se, there certainly are significant customer synergies and credibility that has been built with Ovation that takes us into the transmission/distribution software.

第三，當然，利用我們的公用事業、客戶群的優勢，我們可以走出工廠的圍牆，進入輸電和配電領域。儘管 DGM 和 Ovation 本身之間不存在技術協同效應，但透過 Ovation 建立的顯著客戶協同效應和可信度確實讓我們進入了傳輸/分配軟體領域。

The next question is from Coe, Nigel of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Coe、Nigel。

So just wanted to dig into the operating leverage assumptions in the back half of the year. I think you said mid-30s on sort of mix changing. And I think we've had this MRO mix now of 65% or so for the last couple of years. Are we starting to see that mix changing notably in the back half, maybe getting towards maybe, I don't know, 60% MRO? And does this -- do you expect this to continue in 2025? It feels like it should be. But do you think 2025 is more like a mid-30s? Or do you still think you can maintain 40%-plus operating leverage in 2025?

所以只是想深入了解今年下半年的營運槓桿假設。我想你說的是 30 多歲中期的混合變化。我認為過去幾年我們的 MRO 比例約為 65%。我們是否開始看到後半部的組合發生顯著變化，也許會接近，我不知道，60% MRO？您預計這種情況會在 2025 年持續嗎？感覺應該是如此。但你認為 2025 年更像是 30 多歲嗎？或者說您仍認為到2025年您還能維持40%以上的營運槓桿嗎？

Yes. Nigel, it's Mike. So as we look to the back half of the year, the mix change is meaningful. And you're correct, we've been at the 65% MRO, which is about where we were for the second quarter as well. That is going to drift down on us as we go into the second half. We also benefited this past quarter quite a bit from price. We'll continue to get the roughly 2% price, but it won't be the 3%, we don't believe, that we saw in the last quarter. So those are the big things.

是的。奈傑爾，是麥克。因此，當我們展望今年下半年時，這種組合變化是有意義的。您是對的，我們的 MRO 率為 65%，這也是我們第二季的水平。當我們進入下半場時，這一點將會逐漸降臨到我們身上。上個季度我們也從價格中受益匪淺。我們將繼續獲得大約 2% 的價格，但我們不相信，不會是上個季度看到的 3%。這些都是大事。

There's also a geographic mix element to this with the U.S. growth moderating relative to other geographies. And then if you start to think about the 54% that we printed this quarter versus what we're expecting in the second quarter, there was an uplift this quarter from AspenTech, which had a great quarter, that will moderate in the back half of the year. So you need to put that into your thinking as you go forward as well.

這還有一個地理混合因素，即美國的成長相對於其他地區正在放緩。然後，如果你開始考慮我們本季度打印的 54% 與我們對第二季度的預期相比，本季度 AspenTech 出現了增長，該季度表現出色，但在 2019 年下半年將會有所放緩。一年。因此，在前進的過程中，您也需要將這一點納入您的思考中。

Okay. I'm guessing no comments on '25. But if you do think that continues, I'd appreciate that comment. But on National Instruments, it just feels like -- so just to paraphrase the way you've set this up for the second half, third quarter looks pretty flat sequentially on sales, call it, $360-ish million of sales and then we're picking up towards $400 million in the fourth quarter.

好的。我猜 '25 沒有評論。但如果你確實認為這種情況繼續下去，我會很感激你的評論。但在 National Instruments 上，感覺就像 - 所以只是解釋一下你為下半年設置的方式，第三季度的銷售額看起來相當持平，稱之為 3.6 億美元左右的銷售額，然後我們'第四季度的營收將達到4 億美元。

I just want to verify that, that pickup in the fourth quarter is entirely seasonal. I think when you go back in time, we typically see that coming through in that quarter. So it doesn't feel like we're taking a huge cycle call there. And then with the synergies, do we expect the margins to continue to move higher sequentially through the back half of the year?

我只是想驗證一下，第四季的成長完全是季節性的。我認為，當你回顧過去時，我們通常會看到該季度會發生這種情況。所以感覺我們並沒有在那裡進行大規模的循環呼叫。那麼，憑藉綜效，我們是否預期今年下半年利潤率將持續走高？

Yes. I think you summarized it well. Yes, sequentially, margins would be up, correct. And to your '25 question, I mean, it's early for us to plan '25. But at the end of the day, we don't expect leverage rates in '25 to be materially different from what we're going to deliver in '24.

是的。我覺得你總結得很好。是的，接下來，利潤率會上升，這是正確的。對於你的 25 年問題，我的意思是，我們現在規劃 25 年還為時過早。但歸根究底，我們預期 25 年的槓桿率不會與 24 年的槓桿率有重大差異。

The next question is from Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的安迪·卡普洛維茨。

Well, I know you're still expecting mid-single-digit order growth in the second half after the negative 1% in Q2. So maybe you could discuss how you start off Q3 in April. Give us a little more color into visibility regarding that mid-single-digit growth in the second half. Do you have visibility in the process and hybrid staying at that mid-single-digit level? And then is the mid-single-digit organic growth kind of weighted to Q4, given the turn in discrete then?

好吧，我知道繼第二季負 1% 後，您仍然預計下半年訂單將實現中個位數成長。所以也許你可以討論如何在四月開始第三季。讓我們對下半年的中個位數成長有更多的了解。您對流程和混合的可見性是否保持在中個位數水準？那麼，考慮到當時的離散情況，中個位數的有機成長是否會加權到第四季？

Yes. Certainly, Andy. Look, we're off to a good start in Q3. April over April of last year is up double digit, 10%, on orders. Certainly -- and the 3 months has turned positive as well. So we flipped that to the low single digits on a 3-month basis, trailing 3-month basis. So feel good about the start, feel good about the funnel and the conversion and the markets. And it's again driven by the process and hybrid environment across most of the world areas.

是的。當然，安迪。看，我們在第三季有了一個好的開始。 4 月訂單量較去年 4 月成長兩位數，即 10%。當然，這三個月也變得積極起來。因此，我們將 3 個月的數據翻轉至低個位數，追蹤 3 個月的數據。因此，對開始感覺良好，對漏斗、轉換和市場感覺良好。它再次受到世界大多數地區的流程和混合環境的驅動。

Discrete, we're watching very carefully. As we said, we expect that to turn now a quarter later than originally expected. But we're seeing green shoots that started developing in March and into April, particularly in Western Europe, in Germany around machine makers and some of the discrete industries. So optimistic start for the quarter, again gave us the confidence as we tested our businesses and worked out process that exiting the year in that mid-single digit, low single-digit type of range on orders is very, very feasible.

離散的，我們正在非常仔細地觀察。正如我們所說，我們預計現在的情況將比最初預期晚一個季度。但我們看到三月和四月開始萌芽，特別是在西歐、德國，圍繞著機器製造商和一些離散產業。本季如此樂觀的開局，再次給了我們信心，因為我們測試了我們的業務並製定了流程，以中個位數、低個位數類型的訂單範圍結束今年是非常非常可行的。

Lal, just a quick follow-up to that last comment. Did you just get a couple of larger projects in April? Is that kind of what happened to swing that?

拉爾，只是對最後一條評論的快速跟進。您四月剛接到幾個較大的項目嗎？是這樣的事情發生了嗎？

No, no, no. There's funnel conversion, Andy, but nothing exemplary there.

不不不。安迪，有漏斗轉換，但沒有任何典範。

Okay. And then maybe what are your customers telling you on the NATI side as to sort of why the recovery is still delayed there? And if NATI is still slower to turn than you currently expect, do you still have more flexibility to sort of continue to push the envelope on integration cost-out? And then ultimately, I know Ram said you're still targeting the $185 million. But could you do more than that?

好的。然後，也許您的客戶在 NATI 方面告訴您什麼，為什麼那裡的恢復仍然延遲？如果 NATI 的發展速度仍然比您目前預期的要慢，那麼您是否仍然具有更大的靈活性來繼續推動整合成本的極限？最後，我知道拉姆說你們的目標仍然是 1.85 億美元。但你還能做更多嗎？

No, certainly. Look, I think the team has a great set of ideas on their walls in terms of opportunities to drive efficiency and productivity in the business. But we believe that ultimately, this is a growth business. And while we're doing this, we're driving investments in core technology programs so that we hit the ground running.

不，當然。看，我認為團隊在提高業務效率和生產力的機會方面有很多很棒的想法。但我們相信，最終，這是一項成長業務。在我們這樣做的同時，我們正在推動對核心技術項目的投資，以便我們能夠起步。

We're working on customer demand, both Ram and myself, alongside the management team at National Instruments is well engaged with the customers. Ram will actually speak at NI Connect in a couple of weeks, along with Ritu, which will be a pivotal moment for us. And we have a very successful event in Dallas, I believe, with Ram this year. So look, we're very excited about the potential in the business and this business turning positive in early 2025. Ram, a few words?

Ram 和我自己都致力於滿足客戶的需求，而 National Instruments 的管理團隊也與客戶保持著良好的互動。 Ram 實際上將在幾週後與 Ritu 一起在 NI Connect 上發表演講，這對我們來說將是一個關鍵時刻。我相信今年我們與拉姆一起在達拉斯舉辦了一場非常成功的活動。所以看，我們對該業務的潛力以及該業務在 2025 年初轉為積極的前景感到非常興奮。

Yes. And I think to answer your specific question as it relates to customer, what we're hearing from customers, certainly segments like the defense segment, or what they call aerospace, defense and government segment, are positive. I think we're going to get into easier comparisons. Frankly, April was also a very good month for -- given the expectations for T&M, which was positive for us.

是的。我認為回答你與客戶相關的具體問題，我們從客戶那裡聽到的消息，當然是像國防部門這樣的部門，或者他們所說的航空航天、國防和政府部門，都是積極的。我認為我們將進行更容易的比較。坦白說，考慮到對 T&M 的期望，四月也是一個非常好的月份，這對我們來說是積極的。

And I think really the only two segments we haven't seen the turn, which is why we believe it's at least 1 to 2 quarter delayed in T&M, is semiconductors and Asia. North America actually turned positive in April. Europe has turned positive. We feel good about the ADG segment. And we're cautiously optimistic about transportation. But the portfolio segment, particularly driven by Asia, and then semiconductors is where we still have to see recovery. We're watching that very carefully.

我認為，我們實際上還沒有看到轉變的唯一兩個細分市場是半導體和亞洲，這就是為什麼我們認為 T&M 至少推遲了 1 到 2 個季度。北美實際上在四月轉為正值。歐洲已經轉好。我們對 ADG 部分感覺良好。我們對交通持謹慎樂觀態度。但投資組合領域，尤其是由亞洲推動的領域，以及半導體領域，我們仍需看到復甦。我們正在非常仔細地觀察這一點。

The next question is from Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的迪恩‧德雷 (Deane Dray)。

This came up a couple of times in the prepared remarks, and maybe just if you could walk us through what's different. But you said that there was better backlog conversion than expected. So is this on -- because of a customer request, they want it earlier, that you were able to have better productivity or throughput? Just how did that differ from what the original plan was on the backlog conversion?

這個問題在準備好的發言中出現過幾次，也許您可以向我們介紹不同之處。但你說積壓的轉化比預期的好。那麼這是否是因為客戶的要求，他們希望更早實現，以便您能夠獲得更好的生產力或吞吐量？這與積壓訂單轉換的原始計劃有何不同？

Yes. So Deane, simplistically, responsive supply chains. We had -- our supply chains continued to improve, our plant output has continued to improve, particularly in our measurement solutions business. There was backlog conversion in Test & Measurement as well. So the simple answer is we overshipped what we thought we would in the quarter primarily because our supply chains responded much better and lead times are down to pre-COVID levels, which is a very good sign for us.

是的。所以迪恩簡單來說就是響應式供應鏈。我們的供應鏈持續改善，我們的工廠產量持續改善，特別是在我們的測量解決方案業務方面。測試與測量中也存在積壓轉換。因此，簡單的答案是，我們在本季度的出貨量超出了預期，主要是因為我們的供應鏈反應更好，交貨時間降至新冠疫情前的水平，這對我們來說是一個非常好的跡象。

Sorry, Deane, just to build on that a little bit, relatedly, those being two higher GP businesses helps the profitability in the quarter as well.

抱歉，迪恩，只是在此基礎上再進一步，相關地，這兩個較高的 GP 業務也有助於本季度的盈利能力。

Yes, it tells you how far we've progressed on supply chain normalization, where that wasn't the first thing I'm thinking that you were able to ship more. So that's all good news.

是的，它告訴您我們在供應鏈正常化方面取得了多大進展，這並不是我認為您能夠運送更多貨物的第一件事。這都是好消息。

And then just a follow-up on the Test & Measurement, NATI, on the orders visibility, is there maybe some color on the demand and whether -- did you miss any orders? Was the demand out there and you missed orders? Or is the demand not there? Are you engaged in any more selectivity? Just some color there would be helpful.

然後是測試與測量、NATI、訂單可見性的後續行動，需求是否可能有一些顏色，以及您是否錯過了任何訂單？需求是否存在而您錯過了訂單？還是需求不存在？你是否有更多的選擇性？只要有一些顏色就會有幫助。

No, we did not miss any orders. I think orders came in as per expectations. And I think the way we've actually baked in the plan is even if orders stayed flat to slight sequential growth from what we did in Q2, given the easier comparisons, will improve in the second half and then go positive into '25. Certainly, as Lal mentioned, the green shoots in the defense part of their business, we've been very strong. We're starting to see projects unlock on the battery testing side from an EV perspective.

不，我們沒有錯過任何訂單。我認為訂單符合預期。我認為，我們實際上製定計劃的方式是，即使訂單與第二季度相比持平，略有環比增長，考慮到更容易的比較，下半年也會有所改善，然後進入 25 年。當然，正如拉爾所提到的，他們的防禦業務剛剛萌芽，我們一直非常強大。我們開始看到從電動車角度來看電池測試方面的項目正在解鎖。

So we're starting to see activity come through. Again, the one segment which hasn't seen the recovery, which typically we play in, RF and mixed signal in semiconductors. The memory and the logic piece is not a big piece of our business. We expect that to come back first followed by the activity in RF and mixed signal chip testing. So that recovery is really what's pushed out by 6 months. But outside of that, everything is coming in as expected.

所以我們開始看到活動的進展。同樣，我們通常從事的半導體領域的射頻和混合訊號領域還沒有看到復甦。記憶體和邏輯部分並不是我們業務的重要部分。我們預計這將首先回歸，然後是射頻和混合訊號晶片測試的活動。因此，復甦實際上被推遲了 6 個月。但除此之外，一切都如預期進行。

The next question is from Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

So I'm just trying to kind of calibrate the second half a little better. I think you guys, typically from a seasonal perspective, more or less accelerate sequentially as you move through the year. This year seems like it's a bit more kind of flat just from a quarter-to-quarter sales perspective and then with much less of a ramp from 3Q to 4Q. Anything on the top line seasonally that is not as -- is not normal, is a little slower than usual on the core business, outside of NATI and outside of Aspen?

所以我只是想更好地校準下半場。我認為，通常從季節角度來看，隨著一年的推移，你們或多或少會依次加速。僅從季度銷售的角度來看，今年似乎更加持平，從第三季到第四季的成長幅度要小得多。在NATI和阿斯彭以外的核心業務上，季節性營收是否有任何不正常的情況，是否比平常慢一點？

No, actually -- and the way I see it is our second half versus first half will be up high single digits sequentially from a sales perspective. So it is consistent with the normal seasonality of how our core business minus NATI, minus Aspen performs. Now obviously, Aspen is lumpy and that's in the underlying number. So that could mask the normal seasonality that we see. But in the core base Emerson operations, the second half to first half is up high single digits sequentially from a sales perspective.

不，實際上 - 從銷售角度來看，我認為下半年與上半年相比將連續增長高個位數。因此，這與我們的核心業務減去 NATI、減去 Aspen 的表現的正常季節性是一致的。現在很明顯，阿斯彭是崎嶇不平的，這在基本數字中。因此，這可能掩蓋了我們看到的正常季節性。但在艾默生的核心基地，從銷售額的角度來看，下半年到上半年連續出現高個位數成長。

And I guess, given the mix of MRO is so high today and the growth really isn't that strong, is the mix really changing that much? I mean, is the -- how much is the kind of lower-margin project stuff going to be up in the second half more than MRO, you know what I mean? Like can this change that much quarter-to-quarter?

我想，考慮到如今 MRO 的組合如此之高，而且成長確實不是那麼強勁，那麼組合真的有那麼大的變化嗎？我的意思是，下半年那種利潤率較低的專案會比 MRO 成長多少，你知道我的意思嗎？就像每季都會有那麼大的變化嗎？

No, Steve, it doesn't. So look, we were at 65% in 2023. In Q2, we're at 64%. So there was 1 point shift. That may move yet another point as we go through the year. But no, you're right. And the underlying strength of MRO in our process and hybrid business is still intact. And as certainly we go through the summer and approach the fall outages and STOs and turnaround opportunities, we look at, at least from this point in time, rather positively as well. So that's what's going to play into this as we go through the second half and, hence, gives us confidence also on that exit rate on orders for the year.

不，史蒂夫，事實並非如此。所以看，2023 年我們的比例是 65%。所以有1分的轉變。當我們度過這一年時，這可能會帶來另一個問題。但不，你是對的。 MRO 在我們的流程和混合業務中的潛在優勢仍然完好無損。當然，我們會經歷夏季並接近秋季停電、STO 和周轉機會，因此我們至少從現在來看，也相當積極地看待。這就是我們下半年的情況，因此，這也讓我們對今年的訂單退出率充滿信心。

And then just one last one on NATI, I don't -- I haven't done the math on this 3Q guide. But is that down sequentially and then up sequentially in the fourth quarter? It looks to me like the revenue run rate now, at least for the second half versus 2Q, is basically flattish at around $370 million or something like that. Is that the right construct for NATI in the second half?

然後是關於 NATI 的最後一項，我沒有——我還沒有對這個 3Q 指南進行數學計算。但第四季這個數字是先下降後又上升的嗎？在我看來，現在的營收運行率（至少下半年與第二季相比）基本上持平，約 3.7 億美元左右。這對NATI下半場來說是正確的結構嗎？

So flat Q3, sequentially up in Q4.

第三季持平，第四季連續上升。

Yes. So it's bottomed, the revenues have bottomed there?

是的。那麼它已經觸底了嗎，收入已經觸底了嗎？

Yes.

是的。

The next question is from Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe O'Dea。

Can you dig in a little bit on the growth trends in Measurement & Analytical and Final Control? I mean, it seems like Measurement & Analytical organic, low double digits, maybe even touch low-teens this year, Final Control, mid-single digits. Just some of the differences in those growth rates, what you're seeing on the measurement side versus what you're seeing on the Final Control side.

您能深入了解測量與分析以及最終控制領域的成長趨勢嗎？我的意思是，測量和分析似乎是有機的，低兩位數，今年甚至可能達到低十幾歲，最終控制，中個位數。只是這些增長率的一些差異，您在測量方面看到的與您在最終控制方面看到的。

So measurement solutions this year, you're spot on there, it's going to grow faster than Final Control primarily because that was the business that suffered the most from our backlog build due to lead times. Those -- that backlog is coming down. So the delta in growth rates between Final Control and measurement solutions from a sales perspective is purely that backlog dynamic. Order rates for both businesses, which is a signal of the underlying demand with both businesses being exposed to process and hybrid markets, relatively the same, mid- to high single digits.

因此，今年的測量解決方案，你就知道了，它將比最終控制增長得更快，主要是因為這是由於交貨時間而受到我們積壓建設影響最大的業務。積壓的訂單正在減少。因此，從銷售角度來看，最終控制和測量解決方案之間的成長率增量純粹是積壓動態。兩家企業的訂單率相對相同，處於中高個位數，這是潛在需求的訊號，因為兩家企業都面臨流程市場和混合市場。

Got it. And then it looks like on AspenTech, the fourth quarter EBITDA is implied down something in the neighborhood of kind of $20 million year-over-year. Is that more revenue-related, margin-related, just to understand kind of line of sight into that if that's sort of ballpark what we're looking at?

知道了。然後，在 AspenTech 上，第四季 EBITDA 預計將年減約 2,000 萬美元。這是否更與收入相關、與利潤有關，只是為了了解這種視線，如果這就是我們所關注的大概情況？

Yes. So ballpark, that's what we're looking at. It is lumpy, given the ASC 606. And we'll continue to work the Aspen fourth quarter. But at this point, yes, it's forecasted to be down from Q3.

是的。大概，這就是我們正在尋找的。考慮到 ASC 606，它是不穩定的。但目前來看，是的，預計該數字將低於第三季。

The next question is from Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Brett Linzey。

Wanted to come back to the power franchise. So I imagine there's an opportunity on the newbuild but also the retrofits on the installed base as some of these LTSAs expire with some of your peers out there. Is there a way to frame the content per unit or megawatt? And then any runway on some of the retrofits?

想回到權力特許經營權。因此，我認為新建的項目有機會，但安裝基礎上的改造也有機會，因為其中一些 LTSA 與您的一些同行一起到期。有沒有辦法以單位或兆瓦為單位建構內容？還有一些改造的跑道嗎？

Yes, we'll give you some perspectives and some guidelines. On a 1,200-megawatt combined cycle plant, the project opportunity, or KOB1 opportunity, is approximately $20 million. It's $5 million in the control system, approximately $15 million of instrumentation and valves. The lifetime MRO opportunity over a decade is another $20 million of upgrades. And that lives through about a 10-year period. So it's very significant. And you can just calculate then off the megawatts, depending on the size of the plant.

是的，我們將為您提供一些觀點和一些指導方針。對於 1,200 兆瓦聯合循環發電廠，專案機會或 KOB1 機會約為 2,000 萬美元。控制系統花費 500 萬美元，儀表和閥門花費約 1500 萬美元。十年內的終身 MRO 機會是另外 2000 萬美元的升級。這種情況持續了大約 10 年的時間。所以這是非常有意義的。然後您可以根據發電廠的規模計算兆瓦數。

So certainly, there are upgrade opportunities. That's what -- a lot of what we're seeing in the revamps. We see also on the nuclear side, extension of plant life, which is very meaningful for us, not just from an Ovation perspective with Westinghouse but certainly from an instrumentation perspective and valve perspective. So all dynamics in the global power market are pointing very positive right now.

因此，當然存在升級機會。這就是我們在改造中看到的很多內容。在核子方面，我們也看到了植物壽命的延長，這對我們來說非常有意義，不僅從西屋電氣的 Ovation 角度來看，而且從儀器儀表和閥門的角度來看也是如此。因此，目前全球電力市場的所有動態都非常積極。

Very helpful. And then just on inventory levels, I know your channel dynamics are a little bit different than peers, but maybe you could just frame where you see inventories in some of those sort of channels. And specifically at machine builders, inventory levels, I think, are a bit elevated. But just curious what your assessment and characterization is for the near term here.

很有幫助。然後，就庫存水平而言，我知道您的渠道動態與同行略有不同，但也許您可以在某些渠道中看到庫存。我認為，特別是在機器製造商，庫存水準有點高。但只是好奇你對近期的評估和描述是什麼。

Yes. For our discrete business, our Discrete Automation business, I think inventory levels have certainly normalized in the channel. So we see no dynamics around that. The Test & Measurement business at NI, there is still some elevated levels of inventory in our portfolio business-related channel partners' distribution that should bleed out over the next quarter, which will be helpful for order rates in the portfolio business to turn. But net-net, we don't see any major dynamics around channel inventory that would impact our orders momentum.

是的。對於我們的離散業務，我們的離散自動化業務，我認為通路中的庫存水準肯定已經正常化。所以我們看不到這方面的動態。 NI 的測試與測量業務方面，我們的投資組合業務相關通路合作夥伴的分銷庫存水準仍然較高，這些庫存應該會在下個季度耗盡，這將有助於投資組合業務的訂單率扭轉。但淨淨來看，我們沒有看到任何有關渠道庫存的重大動態會影響我們的訂單動能。

The next question is from Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe just wanted to start off with the Discrete Automation business. Ram, you touched on the inventories at some of the customer levels just now being normal. So when we think about your discrete business, is it in the third quarter sort of flattish sales, down a little bit year-on-year and in the fourth quarter in discrete, you're up year-on-year and sequentially? Is that the recovery slope?

也許只是想從離散自動化業務開始。拉姆，您談到了一些客戶級的庫存，目前還處於正常狀態。因此，當我們考慮您的離散業務時，第三季度的銷售額是否持平，同比略有下降，而第四季度的離散業務是否同比和連續增長？這就是恢復斜率嗎？

Yes, sir. Yes, quarter-over-quarter, flat in Q3, slightly positive in Q4 is kind of how we're looking at orders. We saw a recovery in the fourth quarter, correct. And then for Test & Measurement, which is also exposed to the discrete markets but a different type of discrete market exposure, recovery into the first half of '25 primarily because of the heavy play in semicon and a bigger portfolio of business in China. Two of those markets are seeing slower recovery than our broader Discrete Automation business within the core Emerson.

是的先生。是的，季度環比、第三季度持平、第四季度略有增長，這就是我們看待訂單的方式。我們在第四季度看到了復甦，這是正確的。然後是測試與測量，它也涉足分立市場，但分立市場的類型不同，其在 25 年上半年的復甦主要是因為半導體領域的強勁發展以及中國業務組合的擴大。其中兩個市場的復甦速度比艾默生核心內更廣泛的離散自動化業務要慢。

That's helpful. And maybe just on the Aspen side of things, Lal, you'd mentioned the CFO change and reiterated there's no big portfolio actions at Emerson this year. Maybe just characterize sort of with Aspen in general, how you're thinking about your discussions with them on their capital deployment plans. I've seen they've continued to do the share buybacks. And when you look a little bit further out beyond this year, the appetite on kind of software acquisitions, please?

這很有幫助。也許就在阿斯彭方面，拉爾，您提到了財務長的變動，並重申艾默生今年沒有重大的投資組合行動。也許只是描述一下阿斯彭的整體情況，你是如何考慮與他們就資本部署計劃進行討論的。我看到他們繼續進行股票回購。當你把目光放得更遠一些時，今年之後，你會發現對軟體收購的興趣，好嗎？

No, sure. No, first, very -- continue to be very excited about the partnership that we have with AspenTech. I do believe, Julian, that together, we have a highly differentiated tech stack that we bring to the customer base. And I think that's been highly substantiated by the synergy wins, the level of customer engagements that both Antonio and I have around the world. And we continue to believe in the premise that 1 plus 1 equals 3 here.

不確定。不，首先，我們繼續對與 AspenTech 的合作關係感到非常興奮。朱利安，我確實相信，我們共同擁有一個高度差異化的技術堆疊，可以為客戶群帶來。我認為，協同效應的勝利以及安東尼奧和我在世界各地的客戶參與程度都充分證實了這一點。我們仍然相信 1 加 1 等於 3 的前提。

In terms of the CFO, rightfully, I think you said it right, I'm excited from a perspective of the processes and structure that can be brought in. I think there will be a really good working relationship between Antonio and David Baker. And he brings a lot of the Emerson Management System into AspenTech with him, which we believe is important from an operating perspective.

就財務長而言，我認為你說得對，從可以引入的流程和結構的角度來看，我很興奮。他將艾默生管理系統的許多內容帶入了 AspenTech，我們認為從營運角度來看這很重要。

And then lastly, look, no, no comment on the go-forward. We're going to operate the structure as is, keeping in mind, Julian, that we're only in the second year of this journey. And we believe that there's value to be created out there in the structure. So for now, no change.

最後，看，不，對前進沒有任何評論。我們將按原樣運作該結構，請記住，朱利安，我們只是處於這趟旅程的第二年。我們相信該結構可以創造價值。所以目前沒有改變。

And the last question is from Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

最後一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓。

This is David Ridley-Lane on for Andrew Obin. Just wanted to circle back, I know that there was some pull-forward of orders last quarter. How does that -- if you kind of normalized your first quarter and second quarter for that, what did that trend look like? And just to put a little finer point on it, should we be expecting low single-digit orders growth in the third quarter before stepping up in the fourth?

我是安德魯‧奧賓 (Andrew Obin) 的大衛‧雷德利‧萊恩 (David Ridley-Lane)。只是想回顧一下，我知道上季度有一些訂單提前。如果你將第一季和第二季的情況標準化，那麼這個趨勢是什麼樣的？更具體地說，我們是否應該預期第三季的訂單成長率較低，然後第四季的訂單成長率會加快？

Yes. So we were plus 4% in Q1, down 1% in Q2. So low single digits for the first half, greater than 1 book-to-bill. And then in the second half, you are right, low single digits in the third quarter and arguably, the fourth quarter which is, at this point, baked in better than the third quarter. Let's put it that way.

是的。因此，我們第一季成長了 4%，第二季下降了 1%。上半年的個位數很低，訂單出貨比大於 1。然後在下半場，你是對的，第三季的低個位數，可以說第四季的表現比第三季更好。這麼說吧。

Got it. And then on the sustainability and decarbonization project funnel, I know that's nearly doubled over the last 18 months. Are these projects kind of getting closer and closer to final investment decisions, kind of like the carbon capture when you cited with Shell this quarter?

知道了。然後在永續發展和脫碳項目漏斗中，我知道在過去 18 個月幾乎翻了一番。這些項目是否越來越接近最終投資決策，就像您本季與殼牌提到的碳捕獲一樣？

Yes. I mean, in certain segments like biofuels and carbon capture, the hydrogen projects, which are large, are probably slower movement through the funnel. But I think we see considerable activity globally, certainly big in Europe, here in North America as well. But the pace of progression of these projects through the funnel is varied depending on the segment.

是的。我的意思是，在生物燃料和碳捕獲等某些領域，大型氫計畫可能在漏斗中的移動速度較慢。但我認為我們在全球範圍內看到了相當多的活動，尤其是在歐洲，在北美也是如此。但這些項目透過漏斗的進展速度因細分市場而異。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to the management for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉交管理層發表閉幕詞。

Thanks so much for joining the call today, and we look forward to callbacks later this afternoon.

非常感謝您參加今天的電話會議，我們期待今天下午晚些時候的回電。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。