艾默生電氣 (EMR) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Emerson Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Colleen Mettler, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，歡迎參加艾默生 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁科琳·梅特勒 (Colleen Mettler)。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Emerson's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today, I am joined by President and Chief Executive Officer, Lal Karsanbhai; Chief Financial Officer, Mike Baughman; and Chief Operating Officer, Ram Krishnan. As always, I encourage everyone to follow along with a slide presentation, which is available on our website.

早安，感謝您參加艾默生 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天，總裁兼執行長 Lal Karsanbhai 也加入了我的行列。財務長麥克·鮑曼；和首席營運長拉姆·克里希南。一如既往，我鼓勵每個人都觀看我們網站上的幻燈片演示。

Please join me on Slide 2. This presentation may include forward-looking statements, which contain a degree of business risk and uncertainty. Please take time to read the safe harbor statement and note on the non-GAAP measures.

請和我一起觀看投影片 2。本簡報可能包含前瞻性陳述，其中包含一定程度的商業風險和不確定性。請花點時間閱讀安全港聲明並注意非公認會計準則措施。

I will now pass the call over to Emerson's President and CEO, Lal Karsanbhai, for his opening remarks.

現在我將把電話轉給艾默生總裁兼執行長 Lal Karsanbhai，讓他致開幕詞。

Thank you, Colleen. Good morning. 2023 was an exceptional year for Emerson. The management team, alongside the Board of Directors, boldly delivered across the three dimensions of our value creation strategy. Firstly, culture. Our management team just completed a trip around the world where we have the opportunity to engage with our customers and our teams. It was an energizing trip and it was evident to me that the changes we are driving in the culture of Emerson are embraced as evidenced by our engagement survey.

謝謝你，科琳。早安. 2023 年對艾默生來說是不平凡的一年。管理團隊與董事會一起大膽地實現了我們價值創造策略的三個維度。首先，文化。我們的管理團隊剛剛完成了一次環球旅行，我們有機會與我們的客戶和團隊互動。這是一次充滿活力的旅行，對我來說，很明顯，我們在艾默生文化中推動的變革得到了接受，正如我們的敬業度調查所證明的那樣。

2023 was an important year. We made significant progress across multiple dimensions of culture. We rolled out an employee value proposition, advance our diversity and inclusion metrics and made significant strides in our sustainability targets as well as launching a differentiated talent engine program.

2023 年是重要的一年。我們在文化的多個層面取得了重大進展。我們推出了員工價值主張，推進了我們的多元化和包容性指標，在永續發展目標方面取得了重大進展，並啟動了差異化的人才引擎計畫。

Second, our portfolio transformation is largely complete. The Copeland divestiture and more importantly, the acquisition of NI have enabled us to create an Emerson focused on automation with a cohesive higher growth, higher profit margin, diversified portfolio aligned to the critical macro secular drivers, energy security and affordability, near-shoring, sustainability and decarbonization and digital transformation. I would like to welcome Ritu Favre and the NI family to Emerson. This is an exciting time. With NI, our technology stack is unequaled, and we are in position to continue to push the boundaries of automation to meet our customers' needs.

其次，我們的投資組合轉型已基本完成。谷輪的剝離，更重要的是，收購NI 使我們能夠創建一個專注於自動化的艾默生，具有更高的凝聚力、更高的利潤率、符合關鍵宏觀長期驅動因素的多元化投資組合、能源安全和可負擔性、近岸外包、永續性、脫碳和數位轉型。我熱烈歡迎 Ritu Favre 和 NI 家族來到艾默生。這是一個令人興奮的時刻。借助 NI，我們的技術堆疊是無與倫比的，我們有能力繼續突破自動化的界限，以滿足客戶的需求。

Thirdly, execution. The Emerson management system is delivering differentiated results. Underlying sales for 2023 grew 10%. GP expanded 330 basis points to 49%, and adjusted segment EBITA expanded 220 basis points to 25% after delivering yet another year of over 50% leverage. Adjusted earnings per share in 2023 grew 22%, $4.44 and free cash flow was $2.4 billion. Orders growth exited the year at 5%, and we grew across all world areas. We have strong price realization in the business at 4% for the year and MRO represents 65% of our revenue with now a $150 billion installed base around the world. And we exited the year with $6.6 billion of backlog, up 12% year-over-year.

第三，執行力。艾默生管理系統正在提供差異化的結果。 2023 年基礎銷售額成長 10%。在槓桿率再次超過 50% 的一年後，GP 擴大了 330 個基點，達到 49%，調整後的部門 EBITA 擴大了 220 個基點，達到 25%。 2023 年調整後每股盈餘成長 22%，達到 4.44 美元，自由現金流為 24 億美元。今年訂單成長了 5%，我們在全球所有地區都實現了成長。我們的業務今年實現了 4% 的強勁價格實現，MRO 占我們收入的 65%，目前在全球擁有 1500 億美元的安裝基礎。今年結束時，我們的積壓金額為 66 億美元，年增 12%。

We delivered on innovation in 2023. It was a year of significant releases in our DeltaV platform, Aspen models and intelligent devices. Our R&D spend as a percent of sales rose to 7% in 2023. Cost management is the way of life at Emerson. The differentiated leverage of 53% is reflective of aggressive cost actions across our business. We also delivered on commitments of no stranded costs related to the Copeland transaction. And we'll be delivering on the $100 million corporate cost takeout by the end of 2024 through significant transformational activities driving certain functional activities to centralization and best cost locations. I am humbled by the exactness of our performance, and I'm certainly optimistic about the future of our company. I'd like to express my appreciation to our customers who increasingly place their trust in Emerson to solve the world's most challenging problems.

我們在 2023 年實現了創新。這一年我們的 DeltaV 平台、Aspen 模型和智慧型裝置發布了重要版本。到 2023 年，我們的研發支出佔銷售額的百分比將上升至 7%。成本管理是艾默生的一種生活方式。 53% 的差異化槓桿反映了我們整個業務中積極的成本行動。我們也兌現了與谷輪交易相關的無滯留成本的承諾。我們將透過重大轉型活動，推動某些職能活動集中化和最佳成本地點，在 2024 年底實現 1 億美元的企業成本削減。我對我們業績的精確性感到謙卑，而且我對我們公司的未來當然感到樂觀。我謹向我們的客戶表示感謝，他們越來越信任艾默生能夠解決世界上最具挑戰性的問題。

And lastly, in my opening remarks, I'd like to say I am but one of over 70,000 Emerson team members around the world. I would like to thank our global employees for your passion, hard work and energy that you bring to Emerson every single day.

最後，在我的開場白中，我想說我只是全球 70,000 多名艾默生團隊成員中的一員。我要感謝我們的全球員工每天為艾默生帶來的熱情、辛勤工作和活力。

Please turn to Slide 3. As I said earlier, and it bears repeating, 2023 was an exceptional year. We are excited to run this cohesive high-growth and diversified portfolio. The financial performance was differentiated with double-digit underlying sales growth 53% operating leverage and 22% adjusted EPS growth. As we look ahead, 2024 is expected to be another strong year. Operating leverage, excluding NI, is expected to be in the mid- to high 40s and adjusted EPS is expected to be $5.15 to $5.35, including roughly $0.35 to $0.40 contribution from NI. We hit the ground running on October 11, as soon as we closed the transaction, to begin executing the synergy plan, and we expect it to provide early benefits in 2024.

請轉到投影片 3。正如我之前所說，值得重複一遍，2023 年是不平凡的一年。我們很高興能夠經營這個具有凝聚力的高成長和多元化的投資組合。財務績效表現突出，基本銷售成長率為兩位數，營運槓桿率為 53%，調整後每股盈餘成長率為 22%。展望未來，2024 年預計將是另一個強勁的一年。不包括 NI 的營運槓桿預計將在 40 左右，調整後每股收益預計為 5.15 至 5.35 美元，其中 NI 的貢獻約為 0.35 至 0.40 美元。我們於 10 月 11 日完成交易後立即開始執行協同計劃，我們預計該計劃將在 2024 年提供早期效益。

We are expecting 4% to 6% underlying sales growth, driven by our focus and commitment to winning in our growth platforms and leveraging our innovation. Energy transition, industrial software, life sciences, and metals and mining are expected to remain resilient parts of our portfolio, and we are utilizing our leading technology, customer relationships, installed base and expertise to capture investments in these markets. While discrete markets are down in both our factory automation business and test & measurement, we are expecting recovery in the second half of the year.

在我們對贏得成長平台和利用創新的關注和承諾的推動下，我們預計基本銷售額將實現 4% 至 6% 的成長。能源轉型、工業軟體、生命科學以及金屬和採礦預計將繼續成為我們投資組合中具有彈性的部分，我們正在利用我們的領先技術、客戶關係、安裝基礎和專業知識來吸引對這些市場的投資。雖然我們的工廠自動化業務和測試與測量業務的離散市場都出現下滑，但我們預計下半年將出現復甦。

Turning to Slide 4 for some additional details on how we finish the year. 2023 was a remarkable operational year for Emerson. Starting with the orders performance, our teams executed exceptionally throughout the year. We won in the marketplace. We won in markets like LNG, hydrogen, renewables, life sciences, and metals and mining, resulting in 5% orders growth for the year. This shows our portfolio relevance and leadership position for our customers. Orders were also up 5% in Q4, led by double-digit order growth in China and the rest of Asia.

請參閱投影片 4，以了解有關我們如何結束這一年的更多詳細資訊。 2023 年對艾默生來說是非凡的營運年。從訂單表現開始，我們的團隊全年都表現出色。我們在市場上獲勝。我們在液化天然氣、氫氣、再生能源、生命科學以及金屬和採礦等市場取得了勝利，全年訂單增加了 5%。這顯示了我們的產品組合對客戶的相關性和領導地位。在中國和亞洲其他地區兩位數訂單成長的帶動下，第四季訂單也成長了 5%。

Underlying sales were up double digits for the year, exceeding our initial expectation of 6.5% to 8.5% last November and in line with our August guidance. The strength was widespread across the organization with all world areas growing 9% to 10% and both business groups growing 10%. I am most proud of our performance around operating leverage this year. 53% is differentiated. It is a testament to our Emerson management system and our operational talent, which drove strong performance. Adjusted EPS ended the year at $4.44, beating the midpoint of our original November guidance by $0.37 and near the top of our August guidance. Lastly, free cash flow of $2.4 billion was up 35% year-over-year and above our August guidance.

今年基礎銷售額成長了兩位數，超出了我們去年 11 月 6.5% 至 8.5% 的最初預期，並與我們 8 月的指導一致。這種優勢遍及整個組織，全球所有地區都成長了 9% 至 10%，兩個業務集團都成長了 10%。我對今年我們在營運槓桿方面的表現感到最自豪。 53%是差異化的。這證明了我們的艾默生管理體系和營運人才，推動了強勁的業績。年底調整後每股收益為 4.44 美元，比我們最初 11 月指引的中點高出 0.37 美元，接近我們 8 月指引的頂部。最後，自由現金流為 24 億美元，年增 35%，高於我們 8 月的指導值。

Turning to Slide 5. Our 2023 performance caps 3 strong years of execution, demonstrating the power of our Emerson Management System and its ability to create value for our shareholders. We embarked on a transformational journey of Emerson in 2021 and remained focused on execution. Underlying sales growth of 7% and 10% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, shows the leadership position of our automation technology and our world-class sales organization. It is also indicative of our market share expansion within the $160 billion served automation market. Our ability to both leverage our $150 billion installed base, as evidenced by our MRO sales in 2023 of 65% and win new projects, a strength of this company and critical to the long-term success of this business.

轉向幻燈片 5。我們 2023 年的業績上限為 3 年的強勁執行力，展示了我們的艾默生管理系統的力量及其為股東創造價值的能力。 2021 年，我們開啟了艾默生的轉型之旅，並始終專注於執行力。 2022 年和 2023 年的基本銷售額成長分別為 7% 和 10%，顯示了我們自動化技術和世界一流銷售組織的領先地位。這也顯示我們在價值 1,600 億美元的自動化市場中的市佔率不斷擴大。我們有能力利用 1500 億美元的安裝基礎（2023 年 MRO 銷售額為 65%）並贏得新項目，這是該公司的優勢，對於該業務的長期成功至關重要。

As we invest more in digital technology and software, we are also seeing the benefits to gross margins, which have expanded 470 basis points to 49% since 2021. Strong price discipline and differentiated technology have also provided positive contributions, and the addition of NI will further expand our gross margins. This enabled strong operational leverage across the business, over 50% leverage for 2022 and 2023 is distinguished amongst industrials. Cost discipline remains part of the DNA at Emerson, driving further cost productivity and margin expansion. Put all this together, and Emerson has delivered back-to-back years of 20-plus percent EPS growth.

隨著我們增加對數位技術和軟體的投資，我們也看到了毛利率的好處，自2021 年以來，毛利率已擴大470 個基點，達到49%。強有力的價格紀律和差異化技術也提供了積極的貢獻，NI 的加入將進一步擴大我們的毛利率。這使得整個企業擁有強大的營運槓桿，2022 年和 2023 年槓桿率超過 50%，在工業中表現突出。成本紀律仍然是艾默生 DNA 的一部分，進一步推動成本生產力和利潤率擴張。綜上所述，艾默生連續多年實現每股收益 20% 以上的成長。

Please turn to Slide 6. I want to provide a couple of strategic updates on our business. In October, we hosted Emerson Exchange Immerse in Anaheim, California. The event showcased our control systems and software technology and highlighted our integration with AspenTech throughout different solutions and industries.

請參閱投影片 6。我想提供一些有關我們業務的策略更新。 10 月，我們在加州阿納海姆舉辦了 Emerson Exchange Immerse。該活動展示了我們的控制系統和軟體技術，並強調了我們與 AspenTech 在不同解決方案和行業中的整合。

Featuring over 1,400 attendees and over 100 customer presentations, the week was spent discussing the exciting roadmap of our DeltaV, Ovation and AspenTech products and working with customers to solve their toughest challenges. This was all reflected in our keynote presentations from three important customers. Syzygy, a provider of electric catalyst reactor technology; Biogen; and Tesla, who discuss their automation challenges and partnership with Emerson. These types of engagements not only help our users' understanding of our current products, but also provide important inputs into our next-generation products and innovation.

本周有超過 1,400 名與會者和超過 100 場客戶演示，討論了我們的 DeltaV、Ovation 和 AspenTech 產品的激動人心的路線圖，並與客戶合作解決他們最棘手的挑戰。這一切都反映在我們三位重要客戶的主題演講中。 Syzygy，電觸媒反應器技術提供者；百健（Biogen）；和特斯拉，他們討論了他們的自動化挑戰以及與艾默生的合作關係。這些類型的參與不僅有助於我們的用戶了解我們目前的產品，而且還為我們的下一代產品和創新提供重要的投入。

Throughout this event, we've highlighted our boundless automation vision, the next-generation automation architecture that Emerson is uniquely positioned to deliver based on our leadership position in intelligent devices, control systems, and software. This vision empowers our customers to unlock and access all their operational data, enabling better decisions through analytics and optimization. It also enables customers to balance their production and sustainability goals through enterprise management and a unified software platform.

在整個活動中，我們強調了我們無限的自動化願景，艾默生基於我們在智慧型裝置、控制系統和軟體領域的領導地位，以獨特的優勢提供下一代自動化架構。這個願景使我們的客戶能夠解鎖和存取他們的所有營運數據，透過分析和優化做出更好的決策。它還使客戶能夠透過企業管理和統一的軟體平台平衡其生產和永續發展目標。

On Slide 7, as part of this vision, we continue to accelerate innovation across four priority domains: Disruptive measurement technologies, software-defined automation systems, self-optimizing asset software, and our sustainability portfolio. Each of these areas provide stepping stones to enable the boundless automation vision. At Immerse, we introduced many significant new products to our leading DeltaV portfolio. First, DeltaV version 15 feature pack 1, is one of our biggest rollouts in recent history. The package includes enhancements to software like DeltaV Live, the most advanced DeltaV HMI ever developed. And the introduction of a subscription controller, PK Flex. It also includes the DeltaV Edge Environment, a first-of-its-kind edge solution, allowing users to securely move data into their enterprise environments.

在投影片 7 中，作為這個願景的一部分，我們繼續加速四個優先領域的創新：顛覆性測量技術、軟體定義的自動化系統、自我最佳化的資產軟體和我們的永續發展產品組合。這些領域中的每一個都為實現無限的自動化願景提供了墊腳石。在 Immerse，我們向領先的 DeltaV 產品組合推出了許多重要的新產品。首先，DeltaV 版本 15 功能包 1 是我們近年來最大的推出之一。該軟體包包括 DeltaV Live 等軟體的增強功能，這是迄今為止開發的最先進的 DeltaV HMI。並引入了訂閱控制器 PK Flex。它還包括 DeltaV 邊緣環境，這是同類首創的邊緣解決方案，允許用戶安全地將資料移至其企業環境中。

As we look at the next generation of software solutions and automation platforms, this is a key enabler to unlocking data that users previously discarded. Throughout the rest of the organization, we are also making focused investments in strategic areas. This includes next-generation intelligent devices to further cement our leadership position in our measurement and analytical portfolio and relevant additions to our sustainability portfolio. At AspenTech, many of the new releases are focused on enabling sustainability and energy transition segments. In addition to further building out capabilities like AI and data works to enable self-optimizing asset management.

當我們審視下一代軟體解決方案和自動化平台時，這是解鎖用戶先前丟棄的數據的關鍵推動因素。在組織的其他部門中，我們也在策略領域進行重點投資。這包括下一代智慧型設備，以進一步鞏固我們在測量和分析產品組合中的領導地位，以及我們永續發展產品組合的相關補充。在 AspenTech，許多新版本都專注於實現永續發展和能源轉型領域。除了進一步建構人工智慧和數據等功能之外，還可以實現自我優化的資產管理。

Please turn to Slide 8. On October 11, we closed the acquisition of NI and announced we will report the business as a new Test & Measurement segment in 2024. We are very pleased with the progress already in the first month with NI and are excited about the opportunities in this business. We remain committed to the $165 million of synergies by the end of year 5, resulting in approximately 31% adjusted segment EBITA when moving stock comp to corporate. As we have openly stated, NI completes the significant portion of our portfolio transformation, and we are excited to execute as a new company. We will, however, continue to be active with bolt-on acquisitions that fill technology gaps in our business, and we have the balance sheet flexibility to do so.

請參閱幻燈片8。10 月11 日，我們完成了對NI 的收購，並宣布我們將在2024 年將該業務作為新的測試與測量部門進行報告。我們對NI 合作第一個月所取得的進展感到非常滿意，並感到興奮關於這個行業的機會。我們仍致力於在第 5 年末實現 1.65 億美元的綜效，在將股票補償轉為公司時，調整後的部門 EBITA 約為 31%。正如我們公開聲明的那樣，NI 完成了我們產品組合轉型的重要部分，我們很高興能夠作為一家新公司來執行這項任務。然而，我們將繼續積極進行補強收購，以填補我們業務中的技術空白，並且我們擁有這樣做的資產負債表彈性。

These will be prioritized in four segments we introduced a year ago: Industrial software, test & measurement, factory automation, and smart grid solutions.

這些將優先考慮我們一年前推出的四個領域：工業軟體、測試和測量、工廠自動化和智慧電網解決方案。

In the fourth quarter, we completed two of these bolt-on acquisitions. FLEXIM is a global leader for clamp-on ultrasonic technology measuring liquids, gases and steam. The business is highly complementary to our existing leading flow portfolio consisting of Coriolis, DP Flow, [Mag and] Vortex and will also serve attractive growth markets in the energy transition. We also completed the acquisition of AFAG in the fourth quarter, a highly strategic asset in the factory automation market. AFAG's electric linear motion solutions, combined with our existing pneumatic motion offering, creates a leading motion portfolio for discrete industries in a $9 billion TAM.

在第四季度，我們完成了其中兩項補強收購。 FLEXIM 是測量液體、氣體和蒸汽的外夾式超音波技術的全球領導者。該業務與我們現有的領先流量產品組合（包括 Coriolis、DP Flow、[Mag 和] Vortex）高度互補，也將服務於能源轉型中有吸引力的成長市場。我們也在第四季度完成了對 AFAG 的收購，這是工廠自動化市場的高度策略性資產。 AFAG 的電動直線運動解決方案與我們現有的氣動運動產品相結合，在價值 90 億美元的 TAM 中為離散產業創建了領先的運動產品組合。

Please turn to Slide 9. As I mentioned, the large pieces of our portfolio transformation are behind us. And this slide shows that we were able to accomplish what we were able to accomplish over the last few years. We have three main objectives that I communicated when we started this journey. First, cohesiveness, which we now have with an unmatched technology stack. Second, diversification. Discrete is now our second largest end market with further opportunities to expand into attractive diversified industries. And third, our growth is aligned to secular growth drivers. This alignment to energy security and affordability, sustainability and decarbonization, nearshoring, and digital transformation will allow Emerson to move to a more secular and less cyclical business profile.

請參閱投影片 9。正如我所提到的，我們投資組合轉型的大部分內容已經過去。這張投影片顯示我們能夠完成過去幾年所取得的成就。當我們開始這趟旅程時，我傳達了三個主要目標。首先，凝聚力，我們現在擁有無與倫比的技術堆疊。第二，多元化。離散產品現在是我們的第二大終端市場，有進一步擴展到有吸引力的多元化產業的機會。第三，我們的成長與長期成長動力保持一致。這種與能源安全和可負擔性、永續性和脫碳、近岸外包和數位轉型的結合將使艾默生能夠轉向更長期、週期性更少的業務狀況。

$36 billion worth of transactions, disposing of assets low single-digit growth profiles and adding businesses, we expect to grow cumulatively in the high single digits to low double digits. The profitability improvement is also remarkable, trading 30% GP businesses for those that operate 70% plus gross profits, which are already seeing -- we are seeing the benefits of today. We are all energized by the opportunity we have with this new Emerson.

價值 360 億美元的交易、處置低個位數成長的資產以及增加業務，我們預計將以高個位數到低兩位數的方式累積成長。獲利能力的提高也很顯著，將 30% 的 GP 業務換成那些經營 70% 以上毛利的業務，我們已經看到了今天的好處。我們都對與這位新艾默生合作的機會感到充滿活力。

Please turn to Slide 10. Our current strategic funnel is now over $10 billion in opportunity with nearly 2/3 residing in our growth platforms. We're also encouraged by the activity of projects already in the funnel, considering the interest rate environment and global uncertainty. In the fourth quarter, Emerson was awarded over $500 million of project content with over 60% of those in our growth platforms. This includes strategic wins in LNG, carbon capture, hydrogen, life sciences, and metals & mining. These successes are indicative of our team's focus and our technologies relevance within these markets.

請參閱投影片 10。我們目前的策略漏斗中的機會已超過 100 億美元，其中近 2/3 存在於我們的成長平台中。考慮到利率環境和全球不確定性，我們也對通路中已有項目的活動感到鼓舞。第四季度，艾默生獲得了超過 5 億美元的專案內容，其中超過 60% 屬於我們的成長平台。這包括在液化天然氣、碳捕獲、氫、生命科學以及金屬和採礦領域的戰略勝利。這些成功顯示了我們團隊的專注以及我們的技術在這些市場中的相關性。

As we look at further diversifying our portfolio into hybrid and energy transition markets, 2023 was a fundamental foundational year. Specifically, there were three highly strategic projects to highlight. First, Emerson was selected to automate five different plants for Samsung Biologics as it standardizes on our DeltaV automation platform. The Emerson solution provides control for both production skids and for plant-wide operations. We are also currently engaging with the customer on the potential to leverage AspenTech software for future expansion.

當我們考慮將我們的投資組合進一步多元化到混合動力和能源轉型市場時，2023 年是重要的基礎年。具體來說，有三個高度策略性的項目需要強調。首先，艾默生被選為三星生物製品公司的五個不同工廠實現自動化，因為它在我們的 DeltaV 自動化平台上實現了標準化。艾默生解決方案為生產撬塊和全廠運作提供控制。我們目前也正在與客戶探討利用 AspenTech 軟體進行未來擴充的可能性。

Secondly, in the third quarter, we highlighted Emerson's selection for the Port Arthur LNG project with Bechtel Energy and Sempra. This quarter, we are pleased to announce we were also selected for another large-scale world-class LNG facility in the United States, the Rio Grande LNG project from Bechtel Energy and NextDecade located in Texas will be capable of producing 17.6 million metric tons per annum of LNG across three liquefaction trains. Emerson is providing much of our leading technology, including analytical and measurement technology and control, pressure relief, and isolation valves.

其次，在第三季度，我們重點介紹了艾默生選擇與 Bechtel Energy 和 Sempra 合作的亞瑟港液化天然氣計畫。本季度，我們很高興地宣布，我們還被選為美國另一個大型世界級液化天然氣設施，位於德克薩斯州的Bechtel Energy 和NextDecade 的里奧格蘭德液化天然氣項目，年產量為1760 萬噸。三個液化列車的液化天然氣年產量。艾默生提供許多領先技術，包括分析和測量技術以及控制、洩壓和隔離閥。

And finally, AspenTech was awarded a synergy win in the most recent quarter with a world-leading pulp and paper producer. Emerson's DeltaV system is already installed at the site and through this relationship with the customer, Emerson was able to bring AspenTech to the table. Through this engagement, the customer chose to displace the current incumbent provider of adaptive process control software and instead move to AspenTech. This example demonstrates the power of our Emerson AspenTech integrated solutions and the opportunity to expand AspenTech utilizing our global sales channel. These wins and the continued evolution of the funnel provide a strong foundation as we head into 2024.

最後，AspenTech 在最近一個季度與世界領先的紙漿和造紙生產商獲得了協同勝利。艾默生的 DeltaV 系統已安裝在現場，透過與客戶的這種關係，艾默生能夠將 AspenTech 帶到談判桌上。透過此次合作，客戶選擇取代現有自適應製程控制軟體的現有供應商，轉而轉向 AspenTech。此範例展示了我們的艾默生 AspenTech 整合解決方案的強大功能以及利用我們的全球銷售管道擴展 AspenTech 的機會。這些勝利以及漏斗的持續發展為我們邁向 2024 年奠定了堅實的基礎。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Mike Baughman.

現在，我將把電話轉給麥克鮑曼。

Thanks, Lal, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 11 that summarizes our fourth quarter financial results, which were in line with our expectations. Underlying sales growth was 5%, growing off a tough comp in 2022 when sales shifted from the third quarter into the fourth quarter due to China shutdowns and electronic component shortages. Price contributed approximately 4 points of growth. As expected with our typical seasonality, backlog declined sequentially about $300 million to $6.6 billion, up 12% versus where we entered 2023. Software and control sales grew 2% on an underlying basis, which now includes AspenTech as we lapped a year of ownership.

謝謝拉爾，大家早安。請參閱投影片 11，其中總結了我們第四季度的財務業績，該業績符合我們的預期。基本銷售額成長率為 5%，是在 2022 年的嚴峻競爭中實現成長的，當時由於中國停工和電子元件短缺，銷售額從第三季度轉移到了第四季度。價格貢獻了約4個百分點的成長。正如我們對典型季節性的預期一樣，積壓訂單連續下降約3 億美元至66 億美元，與2023 年進入時相比增長了12%。軟體和控制銷售額基本增長了2%，其中現在包括AspenTech ，因為我們已經擁有一年了。

The control systems and software business came in largely as expected, and it was comparing against a very strong prior year Q4. AspenTech tends to be lower sales volume in our fiscal Q4 due to the timing of renewals and its sales can be more variable due to ASC 606 accounting. The sales were on forecast, and importantly, ACV showed strong growth at 10.9% year-over-year. Intelligent devices grew 6%, led by process and hybrid exposed businesses, mainly measurement and analytical and final control. Our discrete automation business was down in the quarter with softer-than-expected demand and Europe and China weakness impacting this business.

控制系統和軟體業務基本上符合預期，與去年第四季的強勁表現相比。由於續約時間的原因，AspenTech 在第四財季的銷售量往往較低，由於 ASC 606 會計，其銷售額可能會更加不穩定。銷售額符合預期，重要的是，ACV 年成長 10.9%，強勁成長。智慧型設備成長了 6%，其中製程和混合暴露業務帶動成長，主要是測量、分析和最終控制。我們的離散自動化業務在本季出現下滑，因為需求低於預期以及歐洲和中國的疲軟影響了這項業務。

Emerson adjusted segment EBITA margin improved 80 basis points to 25.5%. Operating leverage, excluding AspenTech was 45%. Volume, margin-accretive price cost, which included not material deflation, and ongoing productivity programs contributed to the margin improvement. Adjusted EPS grew 21% to $1.29. Lastly, free cash flow for the quarter of $838 million was up 17% from the prior year.

艾默生調整後的部門 EBITA 利潤率提高了 80 個基點，達到 25.5%。營運槓桿（不包括 AspenTech）為 45%。銷售量、利潤成長的價格成本（其中不包括實質通貨緊縮）以及持續的生產力計劃促進了利潤率的提高。調整後每股收益成長 21% 至 1.29 美元。最後，本季自由現金流為 8.38 億美元，比上年成長 17%。

Please turn to Slide 12. As Lal summarized, 2023 was an exceptional year for Emerson. Underlying sales growth was 10% with 4 points of price contribution. Software and control, and intelligent devices, both finished with underlying sales growth of 10%. All geographies reported strong sales growth with Americas up 10%; Europe, up 10%; and Asia, Middle East and Africa up 9%. Emerson adjusted segment EBITA margin improved 220 basis points to 25%. Operating leverage, excluding AspenTech, was 53%. As we've talked about throughout the year, this was driven by leverage on double-digit sales growth, strong execution by our operations teams, margin-accretive price cost and favorable product and project mix. Adjusted EPS grew 22% to $4.44 with $0.27 of contribution from AspenTech.

請參閱投影片 12。正如 Lal 總結的那樣，2023 年對艾默生來說是不平凡的一年。基本銷售額成長 10%，價格貢獻 4 個百分點。軟體與控制、智慧型裝置的基本銷售額成長均為 10%。所有地區的銷售額均呈現強勁成長，其中美洲成長了 10%；歐洲，上漲10%；亞洲、中東和非洲成長了 9%。艾默生調整後的部門 EBITA 利潤率提高了 220 個基點，達到 25%。營運槓桿（不包括 AspenTech）為 53%。正如我們全年所討論的那樣，這是由兩位數銷售成長的槓桿、我們營運團隊的強大執行力、利潤成長的價格成本以及有利的產品和專案組合所推動的。調整後每股收益成長 22%，達到 4.44 美元，其中 AspenTech 貢獻了 0.27 美元。

Lastly, free cash flow of $2.4 billion was up 35% versus the prior year. This includes approximately $100 million from the interest on undeployed proceeds from the Copeland transaction. For the year, free cash flow conversion of adjusted earnings was 88%, slightly ahead of our expectations. This also represents a 15.6% free cash flow margin, a metric we plan to utilize moving forward.

最後，自由現金流為 24 億美元，比上年成長 35%。這包括約 1 億美元的 Copeland 交易未動用收益利息。今年調整後獲利的自由現金流轉換率為 88%，略高於我們的預期。這也代表了 15.6% 的自由現金流利潤率，這是我們計劃在未來使用的指標。

Slide 13 details the drivers of adjusted EPS growth from the prior year. Operational performance was exceptional. 10% underlying sales growth and 53% segment-level operating leverage contributed $0.77 of year-over-year EPS growth. FX was a $0.12 headwind. Stock comp was a $0.16 headwind versus the prior year due primarily to the mark-to-market accounting for the company's old stock compensation plan, which was mostly offset by pension and other corporate items. The reduced share count resulting from the $2 billion share repurchase contributed $0.14 and the Copeland note receivable interest contributed $0.05 to adjusted EPS for the year. Overall, adjusted EPS grew 22% year-over-year to $4.44.

投影片 13 詳細介紹了上一年調整後每股盈餘成長的驅動因素。營運表現非常出色。 10% 的基礎銷售成長和 53% 的部門級營運槓桿為 EPS 年成長貢獻了 0.77 美元。外匯市場面臨 0.12 美元的逆風。與前一年相比，股票補償下降了 0.16 美元，這主要是由於該公司舊股票補償計劃按市值計價，該計劃大部分被退休金和其他公司項目所抵消。 20 億美元的股票回購導致的股票數量減少為當年調整後每股收益貢獻了 0.14 美元，而谷輪應收票據利息貢獻了 0.05 美元。總體而言，調整後每股收益年增 22% 至 4.44 美元。

Please turn to Slide 14. We believe 2024 is shaping up to be another good year of financial performance. Our end markets remain generally resilient evidenced by 5% underlying orders growth in Q4 and for all of 2023. This has resulted in healthy backlog levels, which were up 12% versus where we entered 2023, giving us good visibility into 2024 sales. We also have good visibility through our MRO business, which was 65% of 2023 sales. This day-to-day replacement business gives us good perspective on pace of business and remains constructive. Lastly, we are entering 2024 with a $10 billion-plus funnel, up $3 billion from where we entered 2023.

請參閱投影片 14。我們相信 2024 年將是財務表現又一個良好的一年。我們的終端市場總體上仍保持彈性，第四季度和2023 年全年的基本訂單增長5% 就證明了這一點。這導致了健康的積壓水平，與我們進入2023 年時相比增加了12% ，使我們能夠很好地了解2024 年的銷售情況。我們的 MRO 業務也具有良好的知名度，該業務佔 2023 年銷售額的 65%。這種日常更換業務讓我們對業務節奏有了良好的認識，並且仍然具有建設性。最後，進入 2024 年，我們的管道將超過 100 億美元，比 2023 年進入時增加了 30 億美元。

This all feeds our 2024 outlook. Process and hybrid end markets remain strong, driven by secular trends like energy security, sustainability and decarbonization, nearshoring, and digital transformation. We expect process and hybrid sales growth of mid- to high single digits in 2024. We continue to see investments moving forward in energy transition markets like LNG, nuclear, hydrogen, carbon capture and renewables. We continue to see nearshoring investments here in the U.S. and around the world in life sciences and metals and mining, especially midstream metals processing and refining, which is being expanded to the United States and Europe. These secular trends in process and hybrid end markets and our ability to help customers be successful give us confidence in our 2024 outlook.

這一切都符合我們對 2024 年的展望。在能源安全、永續性和脫碳、近岸外包和數位轉型等長期趨勢的推動下，流程和混合終端市場仍然強勁。我們預計到 2024 年，流程和混合動力銷售將實現中高個位數成長。我們將繼續看到液化天然氣、核能、氫能、碳捕獲和再生能源等能源轉型市場的投資取得進展。我們繼續看到美國和世界各地在生命科學、金屬和採礦領域的近岸投資，特別是中游金屬加工和精煉，這種投資正在擴展到美國和歐洲。流程和混合終端市場的這些長期趨勢以及我們幫助客戶成功的能力讓我們對 2024 年的前景充滿信心。

Discrete markets are obviously in a different part of the cycle, which impacts both our discrete automation and test & measurement businesses. Orders have been negative for 2 to 3 quarters, but we expect this to begin to turn positive in the second half of 2024. We expect underlying sales to be flat to up low single digits in 2024 for our discrete business. From a world areas perspective, it should continue to be a balance, and we expect each world area to grow in the mid-single-digit range.

離散市場顯然處於週期的不同部分，這影響了我們的離散自動化和測試與測量業務。訂單量已連續 2 至 3 個季度為負，但我們預計這一情況將在 2024 年下半年開始轉為正數。我們預計 2024 年離散業務的基本銷售額將持平至低個位數成長。從世界地區的角度來看，它應該繼續保持平衡，我們預計每個世界地區都將在中個位數範圍內成長。

Please turn to Slide 15, where we have outlined our 2024 guidance. Our later cycle exposure, robust backlog and continued orders resiliency support our 2024 guidance for underlying sales growth of 4% to 6%. We expect both intelligent devices and software and control to be within this guidance range for underlying sales. Test & measurement is excluded from 2024 underlying sales and is expected to add another 10 to 10.5 points to reported growth or approximately $1.6 billion of sales. FX is expected to be a 1-point tailwind.

請參閱投影片 15，我們在其中概述了 2024 年指導方針。我們的後期週期風險、強勁的積壓訂單和持續的訂單彈性支持我們對 2024 年基本銷售成長 4% 至 6% 的指導。我們預計智慧型設備以及軟體和控制都將在這一基礎銷售指導範圍內。測試與測量不包括在 2024 年基本銷售額中，預計將比報告的成長再增加 10 至 10.5 個百分點，即銷售額約 16 億美元。預計外匯將成為 1 點的推動因素。

We remain committed to drive a differentiated incremental margins through our operational execution. Operating leverage, which now includes AspenTech, but excludes test & measurement, is expected to be in the mid- to high 40s in 2024, which includes cost savings from our corporate and platform rightsizing. Price cost will continue to be margin accretive in 2024 and ongoing productivity and cost savings will drive further benefits. We expect adjusted EPS to increase from $4.44 in 2023 to between $5.15 and $5.35 in 2024, an 18% increase at the midpoint. This includes approximately $0.35 to $0.40 from NI, inclusive of stock compensation and approximately $0.32 to $0.34 from AspenTech.

我們仍然致力於透過我們的營運執行來推動差異化的增量利潤。營運槓桿（現在包括 AspenTech，但不包括測試和測量）預計到 2024 年將達到 40 左右，其中包括我們公司和平台規模調整所節省的成本。 2024 年，價格成本將繼續增加利潤，持續的生產力和成本節約將帶來進一步的收益。我們預計調整後每股盈餘將從 2023 年的 4.44 美元增至 2024 年的 5.15 美元至 5.35 美元，中間增幅為 18%。其中包括 NI 提供的約 0.35 至 0.40 美元（含股票補償）以及 AspenTech 提供的約 0.32 至 0.34 美元。

There are some movements below the line in stock compensation, pension and other corporate items, which roughly offset year-over-year. This detail can be found in the appendix. As a reminder, stock compensation from NI is now reported in our corporate stock compensation line item. Net interest expense is expected to be approximately $105 million. Lastly, free cash flow is expected to be $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion, which we will discuss in more detail on the next slide. For the first quarter, we expect underlying sales to increase 6.5% to 8.5% with leverage in the mid-30s. Adjusted EPS is expected to be between $1 and $1.05, a 31% increase at the midpoint. NI is expected to contribute approximately $0.05.

股票薪酬、退休金和其他企業項目的線下出現了一些變動，與去年同期相比大致抵消了。詳細資訊可以在附錄中找到。提醒一下，NI 的股票薪酬現在已報告在我們的公司股票薪酬行項目中。淨利息支出預計約 1.05 億美元。最後，自由現金流預計為 26 億至 27 億美元，我們將在下一張投影片中更詳細地討論。對於第一季度，我們預計基礎銷售額將成長 6.5% 至 8.5%，槓桿率在 30 左右。調整後每股收益預計在 1 美元至 1.05 美元之間，中間值成長 31%。 NI 預計將出資約 0.05 美元。

As I mentioned, we will discuss some additional details on Slide 16 regarding our free cash flow. We ended 2023 with free cash flow of $2.4 billion or 15.6% of sales. This included just over $100 million of after-tax cash from interest on the undeployed proceeds from the Copeland transaction, which will not repeat in 2024. Taking this into consideration and starting from a foundation of approximately $2.3 billion of free cash flow, we expect approximately $300 million of contribution from NI operations and another $350 million increase from base operations.

正如我所提到的，我們將在幻燈片 16 上討論有關我們自由現金流的一些其他細節。截至 2023 年，我們的自由現金流為 24 億美元，佔銷售額的 15.6%。其中包括來自 Copeland 交易未部署收益利息的稅後現金超過 1 億美元，該交易在 2024 年不會重複。考慮到這一點，並以約 23 億美元的自由現金流為基礎，我們預計約NI 運營部門貢獻了3 億美元，基礎營運部門另外增加了3.5 億美元。

This would have resulted in a free cash flow margin of approximately 16.8% or $2.9 billion of free cash flow. However, we have two headwinds in 2024. First, we expect approximately $200 million of acquisition-related cash payments associated with the NI and bolt-on acquisitions. Second, we are expecting an elevated CapEx spend related to facility expansions, which will increase our CapEx to approximately 2.5% of sales, up from our historical and future expected rate of approximately 2% of sales. Including these two headwinds bring us to our guidance of $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion of free cash flow or 15.2% to 15.4% free cash flow margin.

這將導致自由現金流利潤率約為 16.8% 或 29 億美元的自由現金流。然而，我們在 2024 年面臨兩個阻力。首先，我們預計與 NI 和補充收購相關的收購相關現金支付約為 2 億美元。其次，我們預期與設施擴建相關的資本支出將增加，這將使我們的資本支出從銷售額的約 2% 增加至銷售額的 2.5% 左右。考慮到這兩個不利因素，我們的自由現金流指引值為 26 億至 27 億美元，即自由現金流利潤率為 15.2% 至 15.4%。

Before we turn the call over to Q&A, I will quickly discuss capital allocation on Slide 17. We remain committed to disciplined capital allocation. Internal development and organic growth investments remain a high priority. This accelerated in 2023 with R&D spend now representing 7% of revenue and NI will further mix this up in 2024. This increase was driven by increased innovation in our four priority breakthrough domains: Disruptive technologies and measurement, sustainability, software-defined automation systems, and self-optimizing asset software. We also remain committed to the dividend and announced today, we are beginning our 68th year of consecutive increased dividends with our $0.525 per share declared dividend this quarter.

在我們將電話轉入問答環節之前，我將快速討論投影片 17 上的資本配置。我們仍然致力於嚴格的資本配置。內部發展和有機成長投資仍然是重中之重。這一增長在2023 年加速，研發支出目前佔收入的7%，NI 將在2024 年進一步混合這一比例。這一增長是由我們四個優先突破領域的創新增加所推動的：顛覆性技術和測量、永續性、軟體定義自動化系統、和自我最佳化的資產軟體。我們也繼續致力於派息，今天宣布，我們將連續第 68 年增加派息，本季宣布派息每股 0.525 美元。

The right side of this chart is where we have flexibility. We will continue to be active in pursuit of strategic bolt-on acquisitions to strengthen our portfolio in targeted areas and we will remain committed to strong returns on these investments. Finally, we plan to have approximately $500 million of share repurchases in 2024. We are energized as we enter the new fiscal year, and we are focused on the execution of our plans.

該圖表的右側是我們具有靈活性的地方。我們將繼續積極尋求策略性補強收購，以加強我們在目標領域的投資組合，並將繼續致力於為這些投資帶來豐厚回報。最後，我們計劃在 2024 年進行約 5 億美元的股票回購。進入新財年，我們充滿活力，專注於計劃的執行。

Thanks for your attention. I will turn it back to the operator to open the call for questions.

感謝您的關注。我會將其轉回給接線員以打開提問電話。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自Vertical Research 的Jeff Sprague。

Just a couple of specific NATI questions, if I could. Some noise with the bolt-ons. So could you just be clear for NATI revenues in 2024? And also, if you could provide any color on how their orders progressed in the fourth quarter? And finally, maybe a little bit of around how much of that synergy target happens in the first year.

如果可以的話，我想問幾個具體的 NATI 問題。螺栓固定時會產生一些噪音。那麼您能透露一下 2024 年 NATI 的收入嗎？另外，您能否提供有關他們第四季度訂單進度的任何資訊？最後，也許是關於第一年實現多少協同目標的問題。

Yes, Jeff, Lal here. So on the revenue, as Mike stated, $1.6 billion is the assumption. It's not in the underlying sales as we reported. Orders in the environment, as I expressed in my presentation are still challenging in the business, exiting the quarter at down 16% at NI, which is very much aligned to the plan that we had in place. And we do expect much like in our core discrete markets, orders to flatten out as we get into the second half of the year. So feel very much that they're under in plan from an orders perspective, although still in a challenging environment.

是的，傑夫，拉爾在這裡。因此，就收入而言，正如麥克所說，假設為 16 億美元。正如我們所報導的那樣，它不屬於基本銷售額。正如我在演講中所表達的那樣，當前環境下的訂單在業務中仍然面臨挑戰，NI 本季的訂單量下降了 16%，這與我們制定的計劃非常一致。我們確實預計，就像我們的核心離散市場一樣，隨著進入今年下半年，訂單將趨於穩定。因此，儘管仍處於充滿挑戰的環境中，但從訂單角度來看，他們非常感覺自己正在計劃中。

And then lastly on synergies. Look, we got off to a really good start, day 1. The team's executing very, very well. We haven't given guidance on year 1. What I did, I will say is that about half the synergies will be delivered in the first 2 years.

最後是協同效應。看，我們第一天就有了一個非常好的開始。團隊的執行非常非常好。我們還沒有給出第一年的指導。我想說的是，大約一半的協同效應將在前兩年內實現。

Right. And just as an unrelated question, maybe it's for Mike. But just thinking about the organic guide for 2024. You're exiting here at 4% price with 5% order growth, right? It feels like there's a little bit of room in those organic numbers. Maybe just share how much price is embedded in that 4% to 6% for 2024?

正確的。就像一個不相關的問題，也許是問麥克的。但想想 2024 年的有機指南。您將以 4% 的價格退出，訂單增長 5%，對嗎？感覺這些有機數字還有一點空間。也許只是分享一下 2024 年 4% 到 6% 的價格是多少？

Yes. Jeff, the 2024 price assumption is 2%.

是的。 Jeff，2024 年的價格假設是 2%。

Our next question comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Can you just talk about within the cash guidance, what you're assuming on working capital? And then that $250 million that's kind of running through this year, how does all that trend kind of into '25?

您能談談在現金指引中，您對營運資金的假設嗎？那麼今年的 2.5 億美元將會持續下去，所有這些趨勢又會如何進入 25 年呢？

Yes, I'll start with the second half or the second part of the question first. The $250 million is really onetime and in the year related to the acquisitions and some of the higher CapEx that we've got.

是的，我先從問題的後半部或第二部分開始。 2.5 億美元確實是一次性的，而且是在一年內與收購和我們擁有的一些較高資本支出相關的。

Great. And then just working capital?

偉大的。然後只是營運資金？

Working capital for the year. Yes, we exited working capital, trade working capital at about 20.5%, and we're expecting about 50 basis points coming off 20.5% of revenue. So we do expect to have a little bit of balance sheet goodness in 2024.

本年度營運資金。是的，我們退出了營運資本，貿易營運資本約為 20.5%，我們預期收入的 20.5% 約為 50 個基點。因此，我們確實預期 2024 年資產負債表會有所改善。

Great. And then just one last one, just on orders. How do you guys kind of see the funnel stepped up a bit, the backlog, year-ended backlog seasonally, how do you guys going to see orders and backlog trending over the course of the year here?

偉大的。然後只是最後一件，只是根據訂單。你們如何看待漏斗的增加、積壓、年終積壓的季節性，你們如何看待全年訂單和積壓的趨勢？

Yes, I'll comment, Steve. Obviously, we exit at 5%, so we have optimism, and we have momentum out there. Obviously, we have some challenges in discrete, as we talked about in the business. I think as you think about the start of the year, my expectations are flat to low single digits. But as we get into the second half of the year, my expectation is exiting at -- in the mid-single-digit range. And for the full year, somewhere in the low single to mid-single digit orders.

是的，我會發表評論，史蒂夫。顯然，我們以 5% 的價格退出，所以我們很樂觀，而且我們有動力。顯然，正如我們在業務中談到的那樣，我們在離散方面面臨一些挑戰。我認為，當你考慮今年年初時，我的預期是持平到低個位數。但當我們進入今年下半年時，我的期望是在中個位數範圍內。就全年而言，訂單量處於低個位數到中個位數的水平。

And then Steve, just on backlog. There -- that pattern holds, there shouldn't be a meaningful change in backlog as we exit 2024. So the backlog should remain healthy.

然後史蒂夫，剛剛積壓。就這樣——這種模式成立，當我們退出 2024 年時，積壓的情況不應該發生有意義的變化。因此，積壓的情況應該保持健康。

The next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe first off, just looking at Slide 15. So I wanted to understand why the operating leverage steps up after Q1 when the organic sales growth steps down? Is there any one segment or subsegment or something happening with mix that's driving that? And should we assume that, that organic sales growth just steadily decelerates through the year? .

也許首先，看看幻燈片 15。所以我想了解為什麼在第一季之後，當有機銷售成長放緩時，營運槓桿會上升？是否有任何一個細分市場、子細分市場或混合發生的事情推動了這個趨勢？我們是否應該假設，有機銷售成長在這一年中穩步放緩？ 。

Yes, there is a little bit of mix. And I would say the discrete automation softness that we are expecting in the first half of the year plays in on that. There's -- we've been ramping up our spend around growth platforms and innovation. And so as you come into the first quarter, there's a little bit of a year-over-year comparable that plays into that first quarter leverage as well.

是的，有一點混合。我想說的是，我們預計今年上半年離散自動化的疲軟會發揮作用。我們一直在增加圍繞成長平台和創新的支出。因此，當您進入第一季時，第一季的槓桿率也會產生一些同比可比性。

I see. So it's really discrete sort of getting better and that pushes up the op leverage.

我懂了。因此，這確實是一種離散的改善，並推高了營運槓桿。

That's -- yes, that's correct.

那是——是的，這是正確的。

Again, obviously, we're driving restructuring in the discrete business given the trend in the orders, and you will see that margin expansion come through in the second half, which would drive up the leverage rates.

顯然，考慮到訂單的趨勢，我們正在推動離散業務的重組，你會看到下半年利潤率擴張，這將推高槓桿率。

That's helpful. And then just a quick follow-up would be around, I suppose, historically, process cycles in automation followed discrete by around 12 months, and we see discrete is soft now. Are there any sort of specific reasons why process should hold up differently this time versus history instead of following discrete lower later this year?

這很有幫助。然後，我想，從歷史上看，自動化的流程週期在離散之後大約需要 12 個月，而我們現在看到離散是軟的。是否有任何具體原因可以解釋為什麼這次的進程應該與歷史不同，而不是跟隨今年稍後的離散走低？

It's a good question, Julian. One that we've thought a lot about and been watching very carefully. The fact of the matter is that we have some very unusual secular trends going on in the world right now. I think a lot of our process activities driven by three critical areas: The nearshoring activity, which impacts life sciences and the metals and mining value chain; the energy affordability and security, which is impacting significant continued investment in liquefied natural gas and nuclear; and thirdly, equally important sustainability. I think we're past the tipping point in terms of our customers' commitment around sustainability, and we're seeing continued investments there. So whether we believe those will transcend certain economic cycles, and that will impact how we should think about the strength of process as we go through 2024. Ram, you have something to add?

這是個好問題，朱利安。我們對此進行了很多思考並非常仔細地觀察。事實是，目前世界上正在發生一些非常不尋常的長期趨勢。我認為我們的許多流程活動都是由三個關鍵領域驅動的：近岸活動，影響生命科學以及金屬和採礦價值鏈；能源負擔能力和安全性，這正在影響對液化天然氣和核能的大量持續投資；第三，同樣重要的永續性。我認為，就客戶對永續發展的承諾而言，我們已經過了臨界點，並且我們看到了持續的投資。那麼，我們是否相信這些將超越某些經濟週期，這將影響我們在 2024 年如何思考流程的強度。 Ram，您有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. And the other point I'd make, Julian, is the capital spend in process, hybrid industries, has been pretty disciplined. There hasn't been a boom in capital to cause a correction as we move forward as opposed to the prior cycles we saw. So I think that disciplined capital spend plus, obviously, the trends that we all identified where the sustainability investments provide that tailwind, we expect process to continue to run for a lot longer.

是的。朱利安，我要說的另一點是，流程、混合產業的資本支出一直都非常嚴格。與我們之前看到的周期相反，隨著我們的前進，資本的繁榮並沒有引起修正。因此，我認為，嚴格的資本支出，顯然，再加上我們都確定的可持續投資提供順風的趨勢，我們預計流程將繼續運行更長時間。

I see. So you...

我懂了。那麼你...

In hybrid. In hybrid. Yes.

在混合動力中。在混合動力中。是的。

Got it. So the process on hybrid orders growth should stay fairly steady through 2024?

知道了。那麼，到 2024 年，混合訂單成長過程應該會保持相當穩定嗎？

That is our expectation, yes.

是的，這就是我們的期望。

Fantastic.

極好的。

The next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

Okay. So National Instruments, I think that the 4Q fiscal sales were down, I think, high single digit organic. Is that the right number? Is my math correct? And it looks like the guide implies flattish to maybe slightly down organic. Just wondering what the profile is on that? And anything on orders? That would be helpful.

好的。因此，我認為國家儀器公司第四季度的財務銷售額有機下降了，我認為是高個位數。這個數字正確嗎？我的數學正確嗎？看起來該指南暗示著扁平化甚至略微下降的有機性。只是想知道它的個人資料是什麼？還有什麼訂單嗎？那會有幫助的。

Yes. So Ram here, Nigel. From an orders perspective, as Lal indicated, the last quarter which is their -- our fourth quarter, down 16% in orders, we expect orders to remain down for the first half and turn positive in the second half. And you are right, the $1.6 billion that we're guiding will translate to down 5% to 6% for the year from a sales perspective. And sales should turn positive in the fourth quarter. So we'll have down sales for the first 3 quarters and positive in the fourth quarter.

是的。所以拉姆在這裡，奈傑爾。從訂單角度來看，正如 Lal 所指出的，最後一個季度，也就是我們的第四季度，訂單下降了 16%，我們預計上半年訂單將保持下降，下半年將轉為正值。你是對的，從銷售角度來看，我們指導的 16 億美元今年將下降 5% 至 6%。第四季的銷售額應該會轉正。因此，我們前三個季度的銷售額將下降，第四季的銷售額將上升。

Okay. Great. I'm sorry, I missed the order number. And then on the backlog, backlog down from 6.9 to 6.6 QoQ. Maybe just to clarify, I don't think that's unusual from a season's perspective. I think it's normal to see 4Q backlog consumption. Was there any FX revaluation impacts there? I just want to make sure to understand the organic movement there?

好的。偉大的。抱歉，我忘了訂單號碼。然後在積壓方面，積壓從環比 6.9 降至 6.6。也許只是為了澄清，我認為從賽季的角度來看這並不罕見。我認為第四季積壓消耗是正常的。那裡有任何外匯重估影響嗎？我只是想確保了解那裡的有機運動？

No. That's a consistent GAAP basis.

不，這是一致的 GAAP 基礎。

The next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.

下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

Congrats on all the stuff done. Lal, it sounds like you were just in China and you were around the world, and it seems pretty topical to get an update from what maybe you saw there. I'll just leave it there.

祝賀所有的事情都完成了。拉爾，聽起來你只是在中國，而你卻在世界各地，從你在那裡看到的內容中獲取最新資訊似乎是一個很熱門的話題。我就把它留在那裡。

Yes, I, actually, on this particular trip did not hit China. We'll do that later in the year. I was there in May. But having said that, look, we had a very good year in China. We exited orders at 11% in China. So feel good about the momentum there again. There -- the investments there are really around energy security and nearshoring are very significant. Sales in mid-single digits for the year, but we continue to see robustness in our core process and hybrid spaces, and not unlike Europe and the United States struggling on the discrete side. But certainly, the process hybrid strength will continue as we expect into 2024.

是的，實際上，我在這次特別的旅行中並沒有到達中國。我們將在今年晚些時候這樣做。我五月在那裡。但話雖如此，你看，我們在中國度過了非常美好的一年。我們在中國的訂單退出率為 11%。因此，再次對那裡的勢頭感到滿意。那裡的投資確實圍繞著能源安全和近岸外包非常重要。今年的銷售額為中個位數，但我們繼續看到我們的核心流程和混合空間的穩健性，這與歐洲和美國在離散領域的困境沒有什麼不同。但可以肯定的是，正如我們預期的那樣，製程混合優勢將持續到 2024 年。

And then the discrete in China was negative, I'd assume this quarter?

然後中國的離散數據是負數，我想這個季度？

Yes, it is negative in the quarter. Yes, sir.

是的，本季為負值。是的先生。

The Next question comes from Joe O'Dea with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe O'Dea。

One, just on the NI's earnings contribution for the year. $0.05 in the first quarter would be kind of running, I guess, $0.10 a quarter or a little better for the rest of the year. But any more detail on that cadence, anything that's sort of cost heavy upfront and then the progression through the course of the year as you're thinking about that earnings contribution?

第一，關於 NI 本年度的獲利貢獻。我猜想，第一季 0.05 美元的價格就差不多了，今年剩餘時間每季 0.10 美元或更好。但是，關於這種節奏的更多細節，任何前期成本高昂的事情，以及當您考慮收益貢獻時在一年中的進展？

No, I don't have anything else to add, Joe. I mean, obviously, there's, as Ram expressed, a volume expansion as we get to the second half of the year that will drive leverage and incremental profits. But that's really what the tale of the tape there is.

不，我沒有什麼要補充的，喬。我的意思是，顯然，正如拉姆所表達的那樣，到今年下半年，銷售量將會擴大，這將推動槓桿率和增量利潤。但這確實是錄音帶上的故事。

Okay. And then on the R&D side and the step up to 7%, it sounds like it goes even higher in '24. Any context on that? And then sort of additional insight on sort of the products and verticals that are getting outside investments as well as what your returns focus is on R&D, the prioritization around share gain or sort of the revenue dollars that you want, returns on R&D investment? Any sort of context around that?

好的。然後在研發方面，提高到 7%，聽起來 24 年會更高。有相關背景嗎？然後，對獲得外部投資的產品和垂直行業的類型進行額外的了解，以及您對研發的回報重點是什麼，圍繞份額收益的優先順序或您想要的收入美元，研發投資的回報？有什麼相關的背景嗎？

From a dollars perspective, yes, we get the benefit of Aspen coming in, that mixes us up and then NI comes in and also mixes us up. So you'll continue to see that commitment to growth, innovation, accelerate and increase as we move on.

從美元的角度來看，是的，我們從 Aspen 的進來中受益，這讓我們混合在一起，然後 NI 進來也讓我們混合在一起。因此，隨著我們的前進，您將繼續看到我們對成長、創新、加速和增強的承諾。

And in terms of where the investment is going, a lot of the investment really is across the four technology areas we've consistently showed you guys. It's a disruptive measurement, which is the sensing technology in our measurement technologies business; our automation system, the next-generation automation system that Lal referenced in the presentation; and also collaborative technology development with Aspen around asset performance management. So those are the areas where we see lots of opportunity in terms of new to the world type innovation that we can drive as an automation company, and that's where the investment's going.

就投資的去向而言，許多投資確實涉及我們一直向大家展示的四個技術領域。這是一種顛覆性的測量，這就是我們測量技術業務中的感測技術；我們的自動化系統，拉爾在演示中提到的下一代自動化系統；也與阿斯彭圍繞資產績效管理進行合作技術開發。因此，我們在這些領域看到了許多新的世界創新機會，我們可以作為自動化公司推動這些創新，這就是投資的方向。

The next question comes from Christopher Glynn with Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自克里斯托弗·格林和奧本海默。

Just curious about the funnel conversion comment. I think last quarter, you indicated that conversion rates of those are picking up as the size of the projects ramps and some of the newer technologies and applications. So just curious, trend line, if you're seeing further acceleration and how much of that notion is baked into the fiscal '24 guidance? Or could that be an opportunity?

只是對漏斗轉換評論感到好奇。我認為上個季度，您表示，隨著專案規模的擴大以及一些較新的技術和應用程式的出現，這些專案的轉換率正在上升。所以只是好奇，趨勢線，如果你看到進一步的加速，以及這個概念有多少被納入 24 財年指導中？或者這可能是個機會嗎？

No. Chris, Lal here. No, look, we continue to see the funnel expand organically to begin with. So it did grow from quarter-over-quarter, which is why we thought it was important to show you. But what's most interesting, it's growing in the right spots for us. It's growing along the growth platforms where we have the focus of the organization. So that comprises about $6.6 billion of the funnel today, of which energy security and transition is a big part of that and sustainability and decarbonization are large part of it.

不，克里斯，拉爾在這裡。不，看，我們繼續看到漏斗從一開始就有機地擴展。所以它確實比上一季度有所增長，這就是為什麼我們認為向您展示這一點很重要。但最有趣的是，它在適合我們的地方生長。它沿著我們組織重點關注的成長平台成長。因此，這構成了今天的漏斗中約 66 億美元，其中能源安全和轉型是其中的重要組成部分，而永續發展和脫碳是其中的很大一部分。

If you look at the wins, they're very much aligned in the same way as the funnel, winning at about 60% aligned on the growth platform-ish with energy transition a big part of what we are converting here. So we feel really good about it. We're watching it carefully, of course, in terms of movement through FID and other elements. But at this point in time, continue to have optimism, particularly products that are purely connected to national security, nearshoring or energy affordability elements. So we feel pretty good about what we see in front of us.

如果你看一下勝利，你會發現它們與漏斗的方式非常一致，在成長平台上的勝利大約有 60% 一致，能源轉型是我們在這裡轉換的一個重要部分。所以我們對此感覺非常好。當然，我們正在透過 FID 和其他元素仔細觀察它的動向。但目前，請繼續保持樂觀態度，特別是那些純粹與國家安全、近岸外包或能源可負擔性因素相關的產品。所以我們對眼前所看到的感覺非常好。

And if I could ask another. On discrete, what kind of impacts are you seeing in terms of channel versus end demand?

如果我可以問另一個人的話。在離散方面，您認為通路與終端需求有何影響？

Well, from a channel perspective, I mean, if you're referencing destocking, we're not seeing that. The discrete slowness is purely market-driven. Certainly European machine builders, China as an end market and an overall slowdown in the factory automation segment in North America. And you see that with obviously a lot of our peers that have a lot more exposure in discrete, frankly, versus our peers were holding our own in terms of the order rate decline in discrete, and we do expect to see a second half '24 positive orders for the business.

嗯，從通路的角度來看，我的意思是，如果你指的是去庫存，我們並沒有看到這種情況。這種離散的緩慢純粹是由市場驅動的。當然是歐洲機器製造商、中國作為終端市場以及北美工廠自動化領域的整體放緩。你會看到，坦白說，我們的許多同行在離散領域擁有更多的曝光度，而我們的同行在離散領域的訂單率下降方面保持著自己的優勢，我們確實預計會看到24 年下半年企業訂單積極。

The next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的安迪·卡普洛維茨。

Well, I think last quarter when you began to talk about FY '24, you mentioned more normalized incrementals in the mid-30% range, but you're guiding to mid- to high 40% ex test & measurement. So could you give us a little more color into the assumptions? I know you get price for '24 and your starting off a little lower, but it seems like you're still getting supply chain tailwind benefits. How would you assess your performance versus your longer-term algorithm of 35%? Is it possible that, that algorithm could be a bit conservative?

好吧，我認為上個季度，當您開始談論 24 財年時，您提到了 30% 範圍內的更多標準化增量，但您在測試和測量前的指導是中到高 40%。那麼您能否為我們的假設提供更多的資訊？我知道你得到的價格是 24 年的，而且你的起步價要低一些，但看起來你仍然獲得了供應鏈的順風車優勢。與 35% 的長期演算法相比，您如何評估您的效能？該演算法有可能有點保守嗎？

It's possible. Yes, Andy. We've been operating in the mid-50s over the last couple of years. There's a significant amount of momentum around cost in the business. As I mentioned, we have tailwinds that will be delivered through the actions we're taking, not just within the segments, but also our corporate as we go through 2024. Now having said that, on the supply chain side, we're on the positive side of most of the measures. Obviously, logistics environment is flipped. And on material flow, generally significantly better. Of course, we fight spot shortages as you'd expect in any business. But generally, we are in a very different world on the supply chain. So that's all very positive.

這是可能的。是的，安迪。過去幾年我們一直在 50 年代中期運作。業務成本方面存在著巨大的動力。正如我所提到的，我們將透過我們正在採取的行動來實現順風車，不僅是在細分市場內，而且在我們進入2024 年時也為我們的公司帶來順風車。話雖如此，在供應鏈方面，我們正在大多數措施的積極一面。顯然，物流環境發生了翻轉。而在物料流動方面，通常明顯較好。當然，正如您在任何行業中所期望的那樣，我們會解決現貨短缺問題。但總的來說，我們的供應鏈處於一個非常不同的世界。所以這一切都非常積極。

So it's really around execution. Look, we have a -- the gross margins of the business are 49% in 2023. They'll expand further, as Mike described, in 2024. And with that comes an expectation of a higher leverage and a higher incremental for the business. So at this point, feel very comfortable with the guide we put out there for the year in that mid- to high 40s which is, I think, differentiated. And we think through what we talk about and guide on a longer-term basis from a financial plan perspective as we go through the year.

所以這實際上是關於執行的。看，我們的業務毛利率在 2023 年為 49%。正如麥克所描述的，他們將在 2024 年進一步擴張。隨之而來的是對更高槓桿率和更高業務增量的期望。因此，在這一點上，我們對今年 40 年代中上旬推出的指南感到非常滿意，我認為這是與眾不同的。在這一年中，我們從財務計劃的角度思考我們所討論的內容並提供長期指導。

Just to amplify that a little bit, Andy. We've also been talking about this $100 million of corporate platform cost takeout, which has been reading through in the businesses, and will read through in the business in '24 as well, which is an uplift for the year.

只是為了放大一點，安迪。我們也一直在談論這 1 億美元的企業平台成本支出，它已經在業務中進行了解讀，並且也將在 24 年的業務中進行解讀，這是今年的提升。

It's great to hear. And then I know you want to retire the KOB1, 2, 3 names. But when we think about '24, I think you've been averaging kind of like 65% KOB3. Would you expect that to hold up and around that level? And what are you seeing on the KOB3 side? Is there just a lot more activity that could also help with margins, given that tends to be higher margin work?

很高興聽到。然後我知道你想退休 KOB1、2、3 的名字。但當我們想到 '24 時，我認為你的 KOB3 平均命中率為 65%。您預計這種情況會維持在該水平附近嗎？您對KOB3 有何看法？鑑於利潤率較高的工作，是否有更多的活動也有助於提高利潤率？

Yes. No, we certainly expect MRO in the 60% range for 2024, Andy. You're absolutely right, it's the most price elastic portion of our business. It's typically replaced like for like within processes. And so we feel we have a great understanding of where the install -- the $150 billion of installed base is located. And we have specific programs across our service organizations and selling organizations to ensure that we mine that and we keep that product evergreen. So I feel good about that. But in that 60% range, I think, would be the right expectation.

是的。不，我們當然預計 2024 年 MRO 會達到 60%，Andy。您說得完全正確，這是我們業務中價格最具彈性的部分。它通常在流程中被替換為類似的。因此，我們覺得我們對安裝位置（價值 1500 億美元的安裝基礎）的位置有了很好的了解。我們在服務組織和銷售組織中製定了具體計劃，以確保我們挖掘該產品並保持該產品常青。所以我對此感覺很好。但我認為，在 60% 的範圍內，這是正確的期望。

The next question comes from Tommy Moll with Stephens.

下一個問題來自湯米·莫爾和史蒂芬斯。

Well, I wanted to start with a follow-up on discrete. You've called out the weakness there previously. Obviously, it's been front and center today. So I'm just curious, were there incremental pockets of weakness you picked up through the last quarter?

嗯，我想從離散的後續行動開始。你之前已經指出了那裡的弱點。顯然，今天它已經成為焦點。所以我很好奇，上個季度你們是否發現了一些弱點？

And as you look through to the second half of the coming fiscal year where you expect a return to growth, is the visibility there more just a comps issue? Or are there some green shoots in terms of the real underlying demand that you can call out at this point?

當您展望下一個財年下半年時，您預計將恢復成長，那麼那裡的可見性是否更多地只是一個比較問題？或者，就目前您可以指出的真正潛在需求而言，是否存在一些新芽？

No. So a couple of things. What we're experiencing through the quarter, or we have experienced through the quarter is demand-driven weakness. It's -- as Ram accurately portrayed, it's not a destocking element. As a matter of fact, a very small percentage of our business runs through stocking distributors in the discrete side. But nevertheless, it's demand that we're really focused on. And it's global weakness across the key markets. Now having said that, the comparables do get easier as we get into the second half. We're not counting on underlying demand conditions in the discrete's market, significantly improving in the second half. What we're benefiting from is obviously the comparators for us.

不，有幾件事。我們整個季度所經歷的，或者說我們整個季度所經歷的是需求驅動的疲軟。正如拉姆準確描述的那樣，這不是去庫存的因素。事實上，我們的業務只有很小一部分是透過離散方面的庫存分銷商進行的。但無論如何，這就是我們真正關注的需求。這是全球主要市場的疲軟。話雖如此，隨著我們進入下半年，可比性確實變得更加容易。我們並不指望離散市場的潛在需求狀況在下半年顯著改善。我們受益的顯然是我們的比較器。

Makes sense. And then if I look at the consolidated outlook you've provided for the first quarter and then the full year, you're starting the year in the high single-digit range. Full year in the mid-single-digit range, so there's some deceleration implied there. Is there some conservatism around there just given the issues you've called out on the discrete side? Are there comp items that you would point out for us?

說得通。然後，如果我看一下你們提供的第一季和全年的綜合展望，就會發現今年伊始就處於高個位數範圍。全年處於中個位數範圍，因此暗示存在一些減速。考慮到您在離散方面提出的問題，是否存在一些保守主義？您有什麼可以向我們指出的補償項目嗎？

There's nothing extraordinary other than we got to be cautious on the discrete cycle.

除了我們必須對離散週期保持謹慎之外，沒有什麼特別的。

Great. We appreciate the insight.

偉大的。我們很欣賞這種洞察力。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

我們的問答環節到此結束。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。