CSX Corporation (CSX) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CSX Corporation Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、各位先生，下午好，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2018 年第三季財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。（接線員指示）

For opening remarks and introduction, I would now like to turn the call to Mr. Kevin Boone, Chief Investor Relations Officer for CSX Corporation.

接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我現在把電話交給 CSX Corporation 投資人關係長 Kevin Boone 先生。

Thank you, Shirley, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me today on -- on today's call is Jim Foote, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Frank Lonegro, Chief Financial Officer; and Mark Wallace, Executive Vice President of Sales and Marketing.

謝謝你，Shirley，各位下午好。今天與我一同參與本次電話會議的有：總裁兼執行長 Jim Foote；財務長 Frank Lonegro；以及銷售與行銷執行副總裁 Mark Wallace。

On Slide 2 is our forward-looking disclosure, followed by non-GAAP disclosure on Slide 3.

第 2 張投影片為我們的前瞻性聲明揭露，接著第 3 張投影片為非 GAAP 揭露。

With that, it is my pleasure to introduce our President and Chief Executive Officer, Jim Foote.

接下來，我很榮幸介紹我們的總裁兼執行長 Jim Foote。

Great. Thank you so much, Kevin, and thank you, everyone, who's on the call. We are very excited about the strong performance of the railroad.

很好。非常感謝你，Kevin，也謝謝所有參與電話會議的各位。我們對鐵路業務的強勁表現感到非常振奮。

Incredible things can be done by incredible people. The CSX workforce is proving every day that they are not going to take a back seat to anyone when it comes to running a safe, customer-focused and efficient railroad. I want to give a special shout-out to the operating team that positioned our assets out of harm's way in advance of the recent hurricanes and to Ricky Johnson and all the engineering folks that did an amazing job in getting us back up and running with minimal delay in the aftermath of both storms.

卓越的人才能成就卓越的事。CSX 的員工每天都在證明，在營運一條安全、以客戶為中心且高效率的鐵路方面，他們不會輸給任何人。我要特別向營運團隊致意，他們在近期颶風來襲前就先行將我們的資產移至安全地帶；也要向 Ricky Johnson 以及所有工程同仁致意，他們在兩場風暴過後，以最小延誤讓我們恢復營運，表現非常出色。

Before moving to third quarter results, I'd like to comment on a few initiatives we worked on in the third quarter. First, we made changes to the organizational structure in our operating department, which pushed more real-time decision-making to the field. Our management team has embraced the change, and I am encouraged by the early positive results and momentum it has delivered. Second, we announced new major initiatives at our Northwest Ohio intermodal terminal. This facility functioned as a sorting facility under the previous hub-and-spoke strategy. We will now leverage this asset and its important, strategic location as a traditional intermodal terminal to drive new revenue opportunities. As part of our plan, we are working with NorthPoint Development to establish a logistics park adjacent to the terminal. This logistics center will require no capital from CSX. We also announced a new haulage agreement with BNSF that enhances western access to the facility. And we are working on expanding assets from East Coast ports. I believe these initiatives will drive long-term growth opportunities to CSX.

在談第三季業績之前，我想先評論幾項我們在第三季推動的措施。第一，我們調整了營運部門的組織架構，將更多即時決策下放到現場。管理團隊已擁抱這項改變，我也對其帶來的早期正面成果與動能感到鼓舞。第二，我們在西北俄亥俄（Northwest Ohio）聯運（intermodal）場站宣布了新的重大計畫。在先前的樞紐—輻射（hub-and-spoke）策略下，該設施主要作為分揀設施運作。我們現在將運用這項資產及其重要的策略位置，把它作為傳統聯運場站，以帶動新的營收機會。作為計畫的一部分，我們正與 NorthPoint Development 合作，在場站旁建立一座物流園區。該物流中心不需要 CSX 投入任何資本。我們也宣布與 BNSF 達成新的牽引運輸（haulage）協議，以強化西向進出該設施的通達性。此外，我們也正著手擴充來自東岸港口的資產配置。我相信這些措施將為 CSX 帶來長期成長機會。

Now let's get to the results. I said it last quarter, and I'll say it again today. Two words sum up everything: great performance. Nothing unusual. Again, these numbers are straightforward. EPS increased 106% to $1.05 versus $0.51 last year. Operating income growth of nearly 50%, combined with a lower tax rate and 6% fewer outstanding shares, contributed to the significant year-over-year increase. Our operating ratio improved 970 basis points to 58.7%, a substantial improvement and a record third quarter for CSX. The operating results are highlighted by 14% top line growth, including 4% volume growth, combined with lower expenses despite much higher fuel costs.

現在來看業績。我上季說過，今天我再說一次。兩個字總結一切：表現卓越。沒有任何不尋常之處。同樣地，這些數字很直接。每股盈餘（EPS）年增 106% 至 1.05 美元，去年同期為 0.51 美元。營業利益近 50% 的成長，加上較低的稅率以及流通在外股數減少 6%，共同促成顯著的年增幅。營業比率（operating ratio）改善 970 個基點至 58.7%，這是大幅改善，也是 CSX 創下的第三季新高紀錄。營運成果的亮點包括營收年增 14%（其中運量成長 4%），並且儘管燃料成本大幅上升，費用仍下降。

Let's turn to Slide 6. Revenue increased 14% as volume, price, fuel surcharge and supplemental revenues all contributed to positive growth this quarter. Looking at the business segments. Each was impacted by positive price and fuel recovery. Merchandise revenues grew 12% this quarter, helped somewhat by lapping some of the service issues last year. Nearly every end market saw a double-digit increase, with the exception of fertilizers, which was impacted by a previously disclosed customer shutdown. I am encouraged by the broad-based growth across this portfolio. Coal revenues increased 14%, with strength in our export business offsetting domestic utility weakness. We also saw good growth in our steel and industrial business. In intermodal, we saw growth from both price and volume. Finally, in other revenues, similar to previous quarters, we saw an increase in supplemental fees, including demurrage.

我們來看第 6 張投影片。本季營收成長 14%，運量、價格、燃油附加費與補充性收入皆對本季的正成長有所貢獻。再看各業務部門。各部門都受惠於正向的價格因素與燃油回收。本季一般貨運（Merchandise）營收成長 12%，部分原因是去年同期存在的一些服務問題已不再形成比較基期壓力。除肥料外，幾乎所有終端市場都呈現兩位數成長；肥料則受到先前已揭露的客戶停工影響。我對此投資組合的廣泛成長感到鼓舞。煤炭營收成長 14%，出口業務的強勁表現抵銷了國內公用事業需求疲弱。我們在鋼鐵與工業業務也看到良好成長。在聯運方面，價格與運量皆帶來成長。最後，在其他收入方面，與前幾季類似，我們看到補充性費用增加，包括滯期費（demurrage）。

On the next slide, Slide 7, let's take a look at our safety performance. The safety of our employees is my #1 priority. As you can see in these charts, we made some good progress this quarter, and we need to sustain this momentum. The personal injury rate this quarter is encouraging, but we must improve our train accident rate. As I have mentioned, we have an initiative underway to drive further improvement. We had a strong turnout by employees in our recent safety survey, which is a good sign of employees' involvement. I will continue to prioritize safety above everything else and expect us to make further progress.

下一張投影片，第 7 張，我們來看安全表現。員工安全是我的第一優先事項。如各位在圖表中所見，本季我們取得一些良好進展，且需要維持這股動能。本季人身傷害率令人鼓舞，但我們必須改善列車事故率。如我先前提到，我們正在推動一項措施以進一步改善。近期安全調查中員工踴躍參與，這是員工投入度的良好訊號。我將持續把安全置於一切之上，並期望我們能再取得更多進展。

On the next slide, Slide 8, on the efficiency and service slide. Train velocity and dwell both saw improvement, significant improvement, over last year, and they are also much better than last quarter. Velocity improved 28%, and dwell improved 26%, both on a year-over-year basis. Cars online continued to trend lower, down almost 14% year-over-year, despite volume increasing 4%. This really shows the improved asset utilization we are achieving. And you can see our trip plan compliance. This is a very important measure as it reflects not only the railroad's operating performance but, most importantly, how we are performing from a reliability standpoint for our customers. We have seen an improvement of 26% from the first quarter to the third quarter this year, and we just started measuring this in 2018. While we have made good progress, there is plenty of room to improve.

下一張投影片，第 8 張，效率與服務表現。列車速度與停留時間（dwell）相較去年都有改善，且是顯著改善，也都明顯優於上季。以年對年計算，速度提升 28%，停留時間改善 26%。儘管運量成長 4%，線上車輛數（cars online）仍持續下降，年減近 14%。這充分顯示我們正在達成更佳的資產使用效率。各位也可以看到我們的行程計畫遵循率（trip plan compliance）。這是一項非常重要的衡量指標，因為它不僅反映鐵路的營運表現，更重要的是反映我們對客戶而言的可靠度表現。我們從今年第一季到第三季已改善 26%，而我們是在 2018 年才開始衡量這項指標。雖然已取得良好進展，但仍有很大的改善空間。

Now let me hand it off to Frank, who'll take you through the financials and operating improvements in greater detail.

接下來我把時間交給 Frank，他將更詳細帶各位了解財務表現與營運改善。

Thank you, Jim, and good afternoon, everyone. Before walking through the financials, we've got a number of questions on hurricane impacts. So let me give you a quick summary.

謝謝你，Jim，各位下午好。在說明財務之前，我們收到不少關於颶風影響的問題。我先做個簡要摘要。

The most significant impact from Hurricane Florence was the loss of over 5 miles of track due to numerous washouts from flooding. As a result, the majority of the financial impact was capital in nature, which I'll discuss in a few moments.

颶風佛羅倫斯（Hurricane Florence）造成的最重大影響，是因洪水引發多處沖刷而流失超過 5 英里的軌道。因此，財務影響的大部分屬於資本性支出，我將在稍後幾分鐘內說明。

In terms of the P&L, we estimate the EPS impact to be about $0.02 in the quarter, similar to Hurricane Irma in last year's third quarter, with most of the impact attributed to lost or deferred revenue.

就損益表（P&L）而言，我們估計本季對每股盈餘（EPS）的影響約為0.02美元，與去年第三季的颶風艾瑪（Hurricane Irma）類似，其中大部分影響歸因於收入流失或遞延。

With respect to last week's Hurricane Michael, given the location of the landfall and the speed of the storm, we do not expect the impact to be significant in the fourth quarter.

至於上週的颶風麥可（Hurricane Michael），鑑於登陸地點及風暴移動速度，我們預期第四季的影響不會顯著。

Turning to Slide 10. I'll walk you through the summary income statement. Reported revenue was up 14% in the third quarter, driven by 4% more volume and revenue per unit gains of 9% from higher fuel recoveries, favorable mix and core pricing gains as well as higher other revenue. The overall pricing environment remained strong in the quarter, with healthy demand levels, tight trucking capacity, higher fuel prices and support of export coal benchmarks, combined with an improved CSX service product. As in the first and second quarters, pricing for merchandise and intermodal contracts that renewed in the third quarter was particularly strong. Other revenue increased year-over-year, reflecting the benefit of higher demurrage and storage charges. We still expect other revenue to be in the $130 million to $140 million range for the fourth quarter but likely toward the higher end of that range.

接著看第10頁投影片。我將帶您快速瀏覽彙總損益表。第三季公告營收年增14%，主要受惠於運量增加4%，以及每單位收入提升9%（來自較高的燃油回收、產品組合有利、核心定價提升，以及其他收入增加）。本季整體定價環境仍然強勁，健康的需求水準、緊俏的卡車運能、較高的燃油價格與出口煤基準價格的支撐，再加上CSX服務產品的改善，共同推動表現。與第一、第二季相同，第三季續約的商品運輸與聯運合約定價尤為強勁。其他收入年增，反映滯期費與倉儲費提高所帶來的效益。我們仍預期第四季其他收入將落在1.30億至1.40億美元區間，但可能偏向區間高端。

Moving to expenses. Total operating expenses were 2% lower in the third quarter, reflecting the benefits of scheduled railroading, as expenses were favorable year-over-year even with higher volumes, higher fuel prices and the impact of inflation.

接著看費用。第三季總營運費用年減2%，反映排程式鐵路營運（scheduled railroading）的效益；即使運量增加、燃油價格上升且通膨帶來影響，費用仍較去年同期有利。

Labor and fringe expense decreased $30 million or 4% year-over-year, as average headcount was down 8% despite 4% more volume. The smaller labor footprint spans both operating and G&A departments. On the operating side, significant year-over-year improvements in velocity, on-time originations and arrivals and trip plan compliance led to significantly fewer active trains and crew starts, yielding a 20% improvement in train crew efficiency as measured by DTMs per active train and engine employee. Nonproductive recruits, an indicator of network fluidity, also improved by 58%.

人力與福利費用年減3,000萬美元或4%，因平均員工人數下降8%，儘管運量增加4%。較小的人力規模涵蓋營運與一般及行政（G&A）部門。在營運端，速度、準時發車與到達、以及行程計畫遵循度的顯著年對年改善，使得在途列車數與開班（crew starts）大幅減少，帶來列車乘務效率提升20%（以每列在途列車與機車員工的DTMs衡量）。作為網路流動性指標的非生產性新進人員（nonproductive recruits）亦改善58%。

Shifting to mechanical support labor. The active locomotive count was down 12% year-over-year, including an active fleet reduction of over 300 engines since the end of Q2. We now have over 800 locomotives in storage, in addition to the hundreds of engines we've sold, scrapped or returned since the beginning of last year. The smaller fleet, along with freight car repair efficiencies, helped drive an 11% year-over-year decrease in our mechanical craft workforce. Our G&A headcount also continues to decline as we look for every opportunity to absorb attrition. With these operational and G&A labor efficiencies, plus the contract and workforce reductions I'll discuss in a moment, we have nearly achieved the full year 2,000 total resource reduction goal we set out on our January call. MS&O expense was lower by 9% versus the prior year. From an operational perspective, improved service levels, combined with resource and asset efficiencies, also yielded MS&O savings. Material savings attributed to the smaller locomotive fleet are complemented by our decision to store units that are less reliable. The decisions we've made around storage, combined with additional fleet reliability efforts, drove a 34% year-over-year improvement in our locomotive out-of-service measure and further reduced costs related to materials and contracted locomotive maintenance services.

接著談機務支援人力。在役機車數量年減12%，其中自第二季末以來在役車隊已減少超過300台機車。目前我們有超過800台機車處於封存狀態，此外，自去年年初以來我們已出售、報廢或退還數百台機車。較小的車隊規模，加上貨車維修效率提升，推動我們機務技術人力年減11%。我們的G&A人力也持續下降，因我們尋求一切機會吸收自然流失。憑藉這些營運與G&A的人力效率，再加上我稍後將提到的合約與人力縮減，我們幾乎已達成在1月電話會議中設定的全年總資源減少2,000人的目標。MS&O費用較去年下降9%。從營運角度來看，服務水準改善，加上資源與資產效率，也帶來MS&O節省。因機車車隊縮小而產生的材料節省，並因我們決定封存可靠性較低的機車而進一步強化。我們在封存方面的決策，加上額外的車隊可靠性提升措施，使機車停用（out-of-service）指標年對年改善34%，並進一步降低材料與外包機車維修服務相關成本。

Looking at nonlabor costs associated with our train crews. The reduction in both road crew starts and recruits yielded lower hotel and taxi costs. Additionally, MS&O continues to benefit from our efforts to streamline contractors and consultants, particularly in our technology department. Similar to recent quarters, results benefited from line sale and real estate gains that were $52 million higher than the prior year. We are continuing to monetize our surplus assets and are making good progress toward our $300 million target for cumulative real estate sales through 2020, along with the potential for upside from line sale proceeds. We continue to have a strong pipeline of real estate and line sale opportunities, though the impact of these transactions will continue to be uneven from quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year.

再看與列車乘務相關的非人力成本。路線乘務開班與新進人員的減少，使旅館與計程車成本下降。此外，MS&O也持續受惠於我們精簡承包商與顧問的努力，特別是在科技部門。與近期季度相似，業績亦受惠於路線出售與不動產處分收益，較去年同期高出5,200萬美元。我們持續將多餘資產變現，並朝2020年前累計不動產銷售3億美元的目標取得良好進展，同時路線出售收益亦可能帶來上行空間。我們仍有強勁的不動產與路線出售機會管線，但這些交易的影響在季度與年度之間仍將持續呈現不均衡。

Looking at the other expense items. Depreciation increased slightly due to the impact of larger net asset base. Fuel expense was up 31%, primarily due to a 27% increase in the per gallon price and increased volumes that we were pleased to achieve record fuel efficiency in the quarter. We will drive further fuel savings through continued improvement in network fluidity and the increased utilization of fuel optimization processes and technologies. Equipment rents expense declined 18%, driven by significantly improved car cycle times as we continue to see strong year-over-year and sequential service improvements. Equity earnings were favorable, primarily due to the impact of a lower tax rate at our affiliates. We still expect equity earnings of affiliates of $20 million to $25 million in Q4.

再看其他費用項目。折舊因淨資產基礎較大而小幅增加。燃油費用上升31%，主要因每加侖價格上升27%以及運量增加；我們也很高興本季達成創紀錄的燃油效率。我們將透過持續改善網路流動性，以及提高燃油最佳化流程與技術的使用，進一步推動燃油節省。設備租賃費用下降18%，主要受惠於車輛週轉時間顯著改善；我們持續看到強勁的年對年與季對季服務改善。權益法投資收益表現有利，主要因關聯企業適用較低稅率的影響。我們仍預期第四季關聯企業權益法收益為2,000萬至2,500萬美元。

Looking below the line. Interest expense increased, primarily due to the additional debt we issued earlier this year, partially offset by a lower weighted average coupon rate. Tax expense was lower in the quarter even with significantly better pretax earnings, reflecting the continued benefit of tax reform. Our effective tax rate was 22.3% in the quarter, slightly lower than prior guidance, mainly due to the settling of state tax matters. Absent unique items, we expect our effective rate to be in line with prior guidance of around 24.5% for the fourth quarter.

再看線下項目。利息費用增加，主要因我們今年稍早新增發行的債務，部分被較低的加權平均票面利率所抵銷。儘管稅前盈餘顯著改善，本季所得稅費用仍較低，反映稅改效益持續發酵。本季有效稅率為22.3%，略低於先前指引，主要因州稅事項結案所致。若不計一次性項目，我們預期第四季有效稅率將與先前約24.5%的指引一致。

Closing out the P&L. As Jim mentioned in his opening remarks, CSX delivered operating income of nearly $1.3 billion, third quarter record operating ratio of 58.7% and earnings per share of $1.05.

最後總結損益表。如Jim在開場致詞中提到，CSX實現近13億美元的營業利益、第三季創紀錄的營業比率（operating ratio）58.7%，以及每股盈餘1.05美元。

Turning to the cash side of the equation on Slide 11. Year-to-date capital investments are lower by 15%. While we remain on track for the 3-year $4.8 billion capital target, we now expect 2018 capital investments of about $1.7 billion, up from the prior target of $1.6 billion. The incremental capital spending is being used to accelerate Positive Train Control on additional investments in positive return projects and pay for repairs related to Hurricane Florence. The reduced capital intensity of the scheduled railroading model, the substantial core earnings, progress detail on the prior slide and the benefits of tax reform helped drive a 55% increase in year-to-date adjusted free cash flow, resulting in nearly 100% free cash flow conversion of net income. This significant improvement in free cash flow generation helped drive a nearly 50% increase in shareholder returns. We executed $1 billion of share repurchases in the third quarter and have now completed over $3 billion of the current $5 billion buyback authority, and remain on pace to complete the program by the end of Q1 2019. As we have stated throughout the year, the CSX board will continue to evaluate cash deployment and shareholder returns on an annual basis.

接著看第11頁投影片的現金面。年初至今資本投資下降15%。雖然我們仍按計畫達成三年48億美元的資本目標，但我們目前預期2018年資本投資約為17億美元，高於先前16億美元的目標。新增的資本支出將用於加速正向列車控制（Positive Train Control），並加碼投資於具正報酬的專案，以及支付與颶風佛羅倫斯（Hurricane Florence）相關的修復費用。排程式鐵路營運模式較低的資本強度、可觀的核心盈餘、前一頁所述的進展細節，以及稅改效益，共同推動年初至今調整後自由現金流增加55%，使自由現金流對淨利的轉換率接近100%。自由現金流創造能力的顯著改善，帶動股東報酬年初至今增加近50%。我們在第三季執行了10億美元的庫藏股回購，目前已完成現行50億美元回購授權中的逾30億美元，並仍按進度於2019年第一季末前完成該計畫。如同我們全年一再表示，CSX董事會將持續以年度為基礎評估現金運用與股東報酬。

With that, let me turn it back to Jim for his closing remarks.

那麼，讓我把時間交還給 Jim，請他做結語。

Great. Thanks, Frank. Turning to Slide 13 and wrapping it up, kind of a forward-looking basis. On last quarter's call, I said we were expecting revenue growth for this year to be in the mid-single-digit range. We are now looking for full year growth to be 6% to 8%. Clearly, we are doing better than we expected coming into the year. A lot is due to the continued strength of export coal, but all of our business groups are doing well.

很好。謝謝你，Frank。請看第 13 張投影片，做個總結，算是以前瞻的角度來看。在上一季的電話會議上，我說我們預期今年營收成長會落在中個位數百分比區間。我們現在預期全年成長為 6% 到 8%。很明顯地，我們今年開局的表現比原先預期更好。很大一部分原因來自出口煤炭的持續強勁，但我們所有業務群的表現都很好。

On the intermodal side, we have made significant strides at reengineering our franchise to get where I believe we need to be to drive sustainable, profitable growth. Our customers understand what we are trying to accomplish and are engaged with us to make our intermodal products better.

在聯運方面，我們在重塑我們的業務體系上已取得顯著進展，達到我認為推動可持續且具獲利性的成長所需要的狀態。我們的客戶理解我們想要達成的目標，並與我們一起投入，讓我們的聯運產品變得更好。

As I sit here today, only 8 months since our investor conference, by almost any measure, we are ahead of where I thought we would be. This team has delivered significant value to our customers and our shareholders by running the railroad better and better every day. I am proud of what has been accomplished and encouraged about all the opportunity in front of us. Our goal of making CSX the best-run railroad in North America is clearly attainable.

以我今天坐在這裡來看，距離我們的投資人會議才 8 個月，幾乎用任何衡量標準來看，我們都走在我原本預期之前。這個團隊透過每天把鐵路營運做得更好、更好，為我們的客戶與股東創造了顯著價值。我為已完成的成果感到自豪，也對眼前所有機會感到振奮。我們要把 CSX 打造成北美營運最佳鐵路公司的目標，顯然是可以達成的。

Let's turn it back to Kevin.

我們把時間交還給 Kevin。

All right. Thank you, Jim. (Operator Instructions)

好的。謝謝你，Jim。(接線員指示)

Shirley, we'll now take questions. Thank you.

Shirley，我們現在開始提問。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Our first question comes from Allison Landry with Crédit Suisse.

我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸（Crédit Suisse）的 Allison Landry。

I wanted to ask about the revenue per RTM trend this quarter. It looks like it was up a little more than 3% and for the first time you've seen since 2Q '17. So just wanted to understand what's driving that, if it's mix, price, a combination thereof and if there's an impact that we should be thinking about or if this helps us to understand the success of PSR so far.

我想請教本季每 RTM 的營收趨勢。看起來上升了略高於 3%，而且是自 2017 年第二季以來你們第一次看到這樣的表現。所以想了解是什麼在驅動：是組合、價格，或兩者的綜合？以及是否有我們需要考量的影響，或這是否有助於我們理解目前為止 PSR 的成功程度。

What was -- I missed the last one. But the -- our TAM growth that we saw in Q3 was -- is a combination of everything. So strong pricing environment, mix and volume. So, yes, I missed the last part of your question.

最後一個我沒聽清楚。不過——我們在第三季看到的 TAM 成長——是各種因素的綜合。所以是強勁的定價環境、組合與運量。所以，是的，我漏掉了你問題的最後一部分。

I was asking about if this tells us something about where you are in -- with the success or progress of precision railroading so far.

我是在問，這是否能告訴我們一些關於你們在精準鐵路（precision railroading）目前為止的成功或進展程度。

I would say yes. Clearly, we are doing very well, and service is excellent. The pricing environment is very, very good. Customers are moving more freight back to the railroad, and that is a trend that will continue.

我會說是的。很明顯地，我們做得非常好，服務也很出色。定價環境非常、非常好。客戶正把更多貨量移回鐵路運輸，而這個趨勢會持續下去。

Yes, Allison, it's Jim. I mean, clearly, part of our strategy here is to price appropriately for the service that we're providing. And to the extent that PSR gives you a better product to sell, you're going to recognize higher prices as we go forward.

是的，Allison，我是 Jim。我的意思是，很明顯地，我們在這裡的策略之一，就是針對我們所提供的服務進行適當定價。而在 PSR 讓你有更好的產品可以銷售的情況下，未來你就會看到我們能夠實現更高的價格。

Our next question comes from Chris Wetherbee with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗（Citi）的 Chris Wetherbee。

Wanted to talk a little bit about OR expectations as we move forward. Obviously, the operating ratio has performed extremely well over the course of the last couple of quarters. I guess, Jim, as you're sitting here thinking about sort of what you're doing on the intermodal side, can you put that into context with sort of your 60% OR target that is out there, maybe how you're think about the sort of timing of getting towards that and maybe the sustainability of these very good margins that we're seeing? I guess, I'm just trying to get a sense of sort of how far along in that progress you are. You mentioned you're ahead of what you expected to be several months ago. I don't know if there's sort of a new way to think about the opportunity set going forward.

我想談談我們往前看的 OR 預期。顯然，過去幾季的營運比率表現非常出色。我想問，Jim，當你在思考聯運業務要做的事情時，能否把它放到你們對外提出的 60% OR 目標的脈絡中：例如你如何看待達成該目標的時間點，以及我們目前看到的這些非常好的利潤率是否具可持續性？我想掌握的是，你們在這個進程中大概走到哪一步。你提到你們比幾個月前預期的進度更超前。我不確定是否有一種新的方式來看待未來的機會集合。

Well, I guess, as I was trying to get to without being too specific because we're not going to be too specific, today anyway, 8 months ago, we put out a target to have a 60% operating ratio in 3 years, and I think at that point in time, everybody felt we were crazy, that, that couldn't be done. And now we've come in with 2 consecutive quarters in a row of, if not industry-leading, right there with anybody else in the industry. So -- and as I have said on the last few quarters, I have a little more confidence that we can hit a 60% operating ratio in 3 years when we're kind of there today. So -- but in no way, shape or form is that indicative of the fact that we've run out of opportunities. We're just, as I said, comfortable with the reengineering steps that we've taken to date on our intermodal business, but we're holding back because we made a commitment to our customers we wouldn't make any kind of dramatic changes until after peak season. We're holding back, and we're going to be doing some more work that we already discussed with our customers in terms of some line rationalizations and terminal consolidations. And what we're talking about with Northwest Ohio, we're committed to growing that business, but we're going to grow that business in a logical process that is sustainable and profitable for us, all of which gives us opportunities to further reduce our operating ratio as we go forward. So a ton of opportunity ahead of us. And -- so hang in there and see what we can do for you next quarter.

嗯，我想我剛才想表達的是——在不過度具體的前提下，因為我們今天也不會講得太具體——8 個月前，我們提出 3 年內達到 60% 營運比率的目標，而當時大家都覺得我們瘋了，覺得不可能做到。而現在我們已經連續兩季交出表現，即便不是業界領先，也至少與業界任何人並駕齊驅。所以——正如我在過去幾季所說，當我們今天已經差不多在那個水準時，我對於 3 年內達到 60% 營運比率更有信心。但是，這絕不代表我們已經沒有機會可做。我們只是——如我所說——對目前為止在聯運業務所採取的重整步驟感到踏實，但我們暫時按兵不動，因為我們向客戶承諾，在旺季結束前不會做任何劇烈變動。我們會先按住，之後會做更多工作——這些我們已經與客戶討論過——包括部分路線的合理化與場站整併。至於我們談到的俄亥俄州西北部，我們承諾要成長那項業務，但我們會以合乎邏輯、可持續且對我們而言具獲利性的方式來成長；所有這些都讓我們在未來有機會進一步降低營運比率。所以我們前方還有大量機會。所以——請拭目以待，看看我們下季能為你做到什麼。

Okay. I appreciate it. And then just a quick follow-up on the pricing side. I know you don't give a core pricing metric anymore but, Jim, you've been helpful in terms of characterizing the price environment over the last couple of quarters. Just want to get your thoughts on 3Q, maybe as it stands relative to the last couple of quarters.

好的。感謝。另外再快速追問一下定價方面。我知道你們不再提供核心定價指標，但 Jim，你在過去幾季對定價環境的描述很有幫助。想請你談談第三季的情況，尤其是相較於前幾季目前看起來如何。

Yes. What we said, Chris, in our prepared remarks was that the renewals continued to be strong. And certainly, in comparison to a same-store sales type of a measure, they continue to be elevated against that benchmark. We restructure contracts from time to time. We did have one that was a little less than we would like. But other than that one, you would have seen a sequential -- continued sequential increase in same-store sales. So again, the environment's really good. The backdrop macro is really good. The service product is really good. As Jim mentioned, Mark's got his team fully engaged in driving forward and really thinking about what we're going to do in the next couple of quarters getting into 2019. The normal escalators like [ALIF and RCAF] and things of that nature all look pretty strong quarter-over-quarter. So those are also helpful as we think about contracts that are longer term in nature. So nothing's really changed from what we told you last quarter.

是的。Chris，我們在事先準備的講稿中提到，續約仍然維持強勁。而且，若以類似同店銷售（same-store sales）的衡量方式來比較，續約表現仍高於該基準。我們會不時重整合約。我們確實有一筆合約的結果略低於我們希望的水準。但除了那一筆之外，你本來會看到同店銷售呈現連續——持續的季增。所以再說一次，環境真的很好。總體宏觀背景非常好。服務產品也非常好。如 Jim 提到的，Mark 已讓他的團隊全力投入推進，並且真正思考我們在接下來幾季、進入 2019 年時要做什麼。像 [ALIF and RCAF] 這類一般性的調整因子（escalators）以及類似項目，季對季看起來都相當強勁。因此，當我們思考較長期性質的合約時，這些也很有幫助。所以，整體而言，和我們上季告訴你的相比，並沒有真正改變。

Our next question comes from Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Jim, can you give us a little bit more context about -- just in general, you're not going to give too many details today you said on the intermodal side. But just what are some of the challenges and the opportunities of making these adjustments, given that CSX was a -- had a stand-alone entity in intermodal and maybe compared to when you were at CN? And where do you think the margin profile can actually go over time? Can they get to the corporate average at CSX?

Jim，你能否再多給我們一些背景脈絡——整體而言，你剛才說今天在聯運（intermodal）方面不會提供太多細節。但就 CSX 在聯運業務上原本是一個——曾經是獨立運作的實體而言，與你在 CN 任職時相比，進行這些調整會面臨哪些挑戰與機會？另外，你認為隨著時間推移，利潤率結構實際上可以提升到什麼程度？它們能達到 CSX 的公司平均水準嗎？

Well, I'll take that second part of your question first. I think so. My history at CN was that, that's what we did. We took it from the slowest dog to the middle of the pack. And I firmly believe that if you believe in your franchise and you believe in the quality of your product, that you can sell that as a value-added service to your customers and not just a commodity that's going to trade in the marketplace based on price. And I think based upon capacity and everything else that's an issue with our channel partners, we bring to the trucking industry and those people that use intermodal a tremendous product with a tremendous value. And we still have a long way to go to get that franchise right. Part of the process is disassembling the old, independent structure of the company because it's not an independent company. It's part and parcel of the railroad. Those trains run on the railroad. They don't run on an intermodal railroad. They run on the railroad. So all of that goes towards us building a much more efficient, highly effective and better quality product for the customer. And that's what's going to drive the growth, and that's what's going to drive -- increase -- improve the profitability of the business segment.

好，我先回答你問題的第二部分。我認為可以。我在 CN 的經驗是，我們就是這麼做的。我們把它從最慢、最落後的那一個，提升到中段水準。而且我堅信，如果你相信自己的特許經營優勢（franchise），也相信產品品質，你就能把它作為一項增值服務賣給客戶，而不只是市場上依價格交易的商品。我認為，基於運能以及我們通路夥伴面臨的各種問題，我們為卡車運輸產業以及使用聯運的客戶帶來的是一個非常出色、價值很高的產品。而我們距離把這個 franchise 做到位，仍然還有很長的路要走。這個過程的一部分，是拆解公司過去那種舊的、獨立的組織架構，因為它不是一家獨立公司。它是鐵路的一部分、不可分割。那些列車是在鐵路上運行。它們不是在一條「聯運鐵路」上運行。它們是在鐵路上運行。因此，所有這些都將促使我們打造一個更高效率、更高效能、且對客戶而言品質更好的產品。而這將推動成長，也將推動——提升——改善該業務部門的獲利能力。

Okay, great. And then, Frank, can you just give us an update on export coal for 4Q? It seems like it's running at the run rate you'd mentioned last time. And if you can give us the mix of thermal and met, or at least some characteristics of that would be helpful.

好的，很棒。那 Frank，你能否就第四季（4Q）的出口煤給我們一個最新狀況？看起來它正以你上次提到的運行速度（run rate）在跑。如果你能提供動力煤（thermal）與冶金煤（met）的組合，或至少一些相關特徵，會很有幫助。

Yes. So it's Mark speaking. Export coal, we believe, heading into the back half of the year or back -- Q4 of the year is going to remain very strong. Demand is still very strong. The benchmarks are still very strong. And so we think we are going to see continued strength in our export coal business if you're heading into the end of the year.

可以。我是 Mark。我們認為出口煤在進入今年下半年、或今年第四季時，將會維持非常強勁。需求仍然非常強。基準價格（benchmarks）仍然非常強。因此，我們認為在接近年底時，我們的出口煤業務將持續展現強勢。

Our next question comes from Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Amit Mehrotra。

Congrats on the very strong results. I feel like I've been seeing that a lot to you guys this year. Jim, export coal has obviously -- just following up on the last question, obviously been highly accommodative, which has helped this year's performance as well. So as we think about walking the operating ratio from 2018 to 2019, how much of the improvement we could see will be predicated on what export coal volumes do next year, just given how much growth we've seen this year in the business? I'm just trying to calibrate our expectation -- my expectations for what the improvement could be in '19, given maybe some of the idiosyncratic events for this year related to export coal.

恭喜你們交出非常強勁的業績。我覺得今年我對你們說這句話的次數很多。Jim，出口煤顯然——延續上一個問題——顯然提供了很大的助力，也幫助了今年的表現。因此，當我們思考把營業比率（operating ratio）從 2018 走到 2019 時，考量到今年這塊業務成長幅度很大，明年出口煤運量的表現會在多大程度上決定我們能看到的改善？我只是想校準我們的預期——我的預期——在 2019 年可能的改善幅度，因為今年出口煤相關有一些特殊事件（idiosyncratic events）。

Well, I would say it's more of the what if something happens to coal. And what would the impact be on our performance going forward as opposed to -- Amit, it's not like we're going to add another 40% more export coal products to the railroad and, voilà, we're going to have a mid-50% operating ratio. So we're assuming and have assumed during the planning process and we'll probably -- based upon where we stand right now, things on a forward-looking basis for export coal into '19 look pretty good, and that will be what we'll base our plan on. And we'll continue to look for ways to become more efficient. As I said, it's much more of an issue of what would be -- how fast and how effectively can we pivot and react in the event something happened to the coal business, and that's something that, as of right now, that would just be speculating. But we don't need -- we need to maintain a healthy coal business going forward because it has a meaningful impact on it. But if something happens to the export coal markets, where they soften up a little bit? We'll pivot and we'll adjust, just like all good railroads -- all good positioned scheduled railroads do.

嗯，我會說這更像是「如果煤炭發生了什麼事」的問題。以及它對我們未來表現的影響會是什麼；而不是——Amit，並不是說我們會再把出口煤產品在鐵路上的量再增加 40%，然後，瞧（voilà），我們就會有 50% 中段的營業比率。所以我們在規劃過程中一直假設——而且也已經假設——並且可能會——基於我們目前所處的位置，從前瞻角度看，出口煤進入 2019 年的前景看起來相當不錯，而這也將是我們制定計畫的基礎。我們也會持續尋找提升效率的方法。如我所說，更多的問題在於：如果煤炭業務發生了什麼事，我們能多快、以及多有效地轉向並做出反應；而就目前而言，這只能算是推測。但我們不需要——我們需要在未來維持一個健康的煤炭業務，因為它對我們有實質性的影響。但如果出口煤市場發生變化、稍微走弱呢？我們會轉向、我們會調整，就像所有優秀的鐵路公司——所有定位良好的定期鐵路（scheduled railroads）都會做的那樣。

Yes, I guess you're just going to be at 60% OR this year. I wonder if you're looking at the business, I'm sure you're looking at the business many ways, but one way you're looking at it is with the underlying margins of the business are doing, ex the growth we see in export coal volumes. And maybe that's the reason the 2020 target should actually be 60%, given the fluid nature of those cargoes or that freight.

是的，我想你們今年的 OR 大概就是 60%。我想知道你們在看這個業務時——我確定你們用很多方式在看——但其中一種方式，是看業務的基礎利潤率表現如何，扣除我們看到的出口煤運量成長因素。也許正因為那些貨種或那類貨運的流動性很高，這就是為什麼 2020 年的目標其實應該是 60%。

Amit, without commenting on your 60% number there either this year or in 2020, when we look at the underlying business, the margins on the business segments are all improving independently, not just because export coal is having a good run.

Amit，先不評論你提到的 60% 這個數字——不論是今年或 2020 年——當我們看基礎業務時，各個業務部門的利潤率都在各自獨立改善，而不只是因為出口煤正好表現很好。

Okay. Let me -- if I could just ask one quick follow-up. One of the big pieces of the cost structure that you guys have been able to leverage is obviously the number of employees, and employee headcount was down another, I guess, almost 8% in the quarter. As your volume guidance is going up, your -- sorry, your revenue guidance is going up, should we expect a flatter kind of employee headcount into '19 and '20? Because -- or will you still be able to kind of leverage that and see higher revenue and lower number of employees?

好的。我再——如果可以的話，我想再追問一個很快的問題。你們能夠槓桿化（leverage）的成本結構中很大的一塊，顯然是員工人數；而本季員工人數又下降了，我想，大概接近 8%。隨著你們的運量指引上調、你們——抱歉，你們的營收指引上調，我們是否應該預期 2019 與 2020 年的員工人數會更趨平坦？因為——或者你們仍然能夠某種程度上繼續槓桿化，做到更高營收與更少員工人數？

Well, we'll continue to become more and more efficient, however you want to measure it, on an DTM basis, on an RTM basis, on a carload basis. And our plan will be to continue to see a reduction in the headcount. We're not -- like I said, we're not in a position right now. Again, we said -- January, we said we're going to take 2,000 employees out of the company this year. We already got 2,000 employees out of the company this year. Will we have a target for employee reductions, employee efficiency next year? Yes. And what that number is, at the right time, we'll articulate it to you. And we will continue to become, on a per unit basis, more and more efficient all the time. However, when we get to the point -- and again, a lot of that has to do with our -- the attrition rate and how we manage the expectations of our employees through this process. But when we get to the point where we need to handle the volume, we're not going to run ourselves out of a couple brakemen here and there to screw up the railroad. So we'll pivot, we'll adjust. There are certain points on the railroad today of where you need employees in one location and you have access in another. So you're always managing your workforce appropriately, and we'll do that on a go-forward basis.

嗯，我們會持續變得越來越有效率，不論你想用什麼方式衡量，以 DTM 基礎、以 RTM 基礎，或以每車裝載（carload）基礎。而我們的計畫是持續看到人力編制的下降。我們不會——就像我說的，我們目前還不在那個位置。再說一次，我們說過——1 月我們說今年要從公司減少 2,000 名員工。我們今年已經從公司減少了 2,000 名員工。明年我們會有員工減量、員工效率的目標嗎？會。至於那個數字，在適當的時機，我們會向各位說明。而且我們會持續在每單位基礎上，隨時變得越來越有效率。不過，當我們到達某個點——再說一次，這很大一部分取決於我們的——自然流失率，以及我們如何在這個過程中管理員工的期待。但當我們到了需要處理這些運量的時候，我們不會因為這裡少幾個制動員（brakemen）、那裡少幾個制動員，就把鐵路營運搞砸。所以我們會轉向、會調整。目前鐵路上有些地點，你在某個位置需要員工，但在另一個位置卻有可用的人力。因此你必須持續適當地管理你的勞動力，我們未來也會這麼做。

You should expect, obviously, when the business comes in merchandise and intermodal, we've got ample capacity on those trains to be able to add it with very high incremental margins. It becomes a unit train commodity. Certainly, the margins there are good, and you would want to add any additional resources we needed to be able to handle that. But I think to Jim's point, you should expect us to continue to leverage resource efficiencies over time, and our business is going to continue to grow. That was part and parcel of the framework that we laid out for you at the investor conference in March.

你應該可以預期，顯然當業務在一般貨運（merchandise）與聯運（intermodal）回來時，我們那些列車有充足的容量可以把它加進來，而且增量利潤率非常高。如果變成單元列車（unit train）的大宗商品。當然，那裡的利潤率也不錯，而你也會希望我們增加任何必要的額外資源，以便能夠處理它。但我想呼應 Jim 的觀點，你應該預期我們會隨時間持續運用資源效率的槓桿，而我們的業務也會持續成長。那正是我們在 3 月投資人會議上向各位提出之框架的一部分。

Our next question comes from Ken Dexter (sic) [Hoexter] with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美國銀行美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）的 Ken Dexter（原文如此）[Hoexter]。

I'm going to guess that's me. It's Ken Hoexter. Great job. But if we can just touch on the efficiency there, Frank or Jim. You've talked about more room. Is there more room on the equipment reductions as well? Or now that you've put all the locomotives aside and the cars, is that kind of the end of the equipment side of your efficiency gain?

我猜那是我。我是 Ken Hoexter。做得很好。不過如果我們可以談一下效率這塊，Frank 或 Jim。你們談到還有更多空間。設備縮減方面也還有更多空間嗎？還是說，既然你們已經把所有機車與車輛都先擱置（aside）了，這是否就算是設備端效率提升的尾聲？

Never. We took out 3 -- again, we took out 300 this time, this quarter. We're always -- again, we're at -- in the quarter, I don't know what the velocity is, 17.8, 17.9, something like that. That's way behind the industry leader, way behind the industry leader. Since then, now, we're up around 19, still way behind the industry leader. As we improve velocity, as we improve throughput, as we improve all aspects of the railroad, what does it do? It creates capacity, i.e., takes out locomotives. So we'll continue to take out locomotives. We'll continue to take out railcars. We'll continue to free up capacity across the railroad and in the terminals, just as we -- as -- because we will drive more and more efficiency and fluidity in the network. And so, therefore, again, that's how the -- that's why the employee count goal is down. Employee count goes down because we need fewer -- as an example, we need fewer -- 30 fewer locomotives for every mile an hour we can improve on velocity. So every 30 of the locomotives means you need fewer people to maintain the locomotives, which means you need fewer facilities to maintain the locomotives and on and on and on. Fewer cars on line, get them off-line, get them moving. Fewer people to maintain the cars, fewer pieces -- fewer inventory. So that's the nature of the game here, is continuing to drive throughput. And as I said, in terms of dwell, we're not the leader in dwell. We're not the leader in terms of velocity. But we will be. And as we do that, we will free up and shed more and more assets.

永遠不會。我們這次——再說一次，我們這一季拿掉了 300（台/輛）。我們一直——再說一次，我們在——這一季，我不知道速度（velocity）是多少，17.8、17.9，差不多那樣。那遠遠落後於產業領先者，遠遠落後於產業領先者。從那之後，現在我們大約到 19 了，但仍然遠遠落後於產業領先者。當我們提升速度、提升吞吐量（throughput）、提升鐵路各個面向時，會發生什麼？它會創造產能，也就是說，能夠減少機車。所以我們會持續減少機車。我們會持續減少鐵路車輛（railcars）。我們會持續在整個鐵路網與各終端場站釋放產能，就像我們——因為我們會在網路中推動越來越高的效率與流動性（fluidity）。因此，再說一次，這就是——這也是為什麼員工人數目標會下降。員工人數會下降，因為我們需要更少——舉例來說，我們每把速度提升每小時 1 英里，就能少用 30 台機車。所以每少 30 台機車，就代表你需要更少的人去維修機車，也代表你需要更少的設施去維修機車，如此類推。線上車輛更少，把它們移出線外，讓它們動起來。維修車輛的人更少、零件——庫存更少。所以這個遊戲的本質，就是持續推動吞吐量。而且如我所說，就停留時間（dwell）而言，我們不是停留時間的領先者。就速度而言，我們也不是領先者。但我們會成為領先者。而當我們做到時，我們將釋放並剝離越來越多的資產。

That's really great detail and insight. I truly appreciate that. Frank, maybe another one. I just want to clarify something you said earlier. You said there was a contract that you didn't get what you wanted. Excluding that, I think you said rates would have been up sequentially. Maybe if you can just kind of clarify or detail what you were saying there in terms of what was going on with rates, excluding -- I don't know if that was including a bad contract or something.

這些細節與洞見真的很棒。我非常感謝。Frank，或許再問一個。我想釐清你先前說的一件事。你說有一份合約你沒有拿到你想要的結果。排除那個之後，我想你說費率會是連續上升的。也許你可以再釐清或更詳細說明一下，你在談費率時的意思是什麼，排除——我不確定那是否包含一份不好的合約之類的。

Ken, you summarized it perfectly. Absent that one restructuring deal that we did last year. Same-store sales would have been up sequentially Q2 to Q3.

Ken，你總結得完全正確。如果沒有我們去年做的那一筆重整（restructuring）交易。同店銷售（same-store sales）本來會在 Q2 到 Q3 之間呈現連續成長。

So that was last year. That wasn't one that just happened, that is, you're seeing rates deteriorate or anything?

所以那是去年的事。那不是剛剛才發生的，也就是說，你們並不是看到費率在惡化之類的？

That's correct. That's before Foote and before Wallace.

沒錯。那是在 Foote 之前、也在 Wallace 之前。

Very important clarification.

這個釐清非常重要。

We're talking merchant intermodal.

我們談的是商業聯運（merchant intermodal）。

We just have to live with it, we don't have to be asked about it.

我們只能接受它，我們不需要被問到它。

Okay, okay. And then just a follow-up. Maybe, Jim, if you can detail kind of what you're doing on intermodal. I mean, you talked about holding off until after peak. But can you walk through changes? I know you mentioned you're reopening kind of -- or accelerating some stuff in Northwest Ohio, working on the tunnel in Virginia. What is the goal on intermodal? I don't know if there's a simple way to kind of highlight what you're doing there.

好，好。接著再追問一下。也許 Jim，你能否詳細說明你們在聯運上做了哪些事。我的意思是，你提到會等到旺季之後再做。但你能帶我們走一遍有哪些變更嗎？我知道你提到你們正在重新開放某些——或加速一些位於俄亥俄州西北部的項目，並在維吉尼亞州處理隧道工程。聯運的目標是什麼？我不確定是否有一個簡單的方式可以重點說明你們在那裡做的事情。

Yes. I guess the goal is, I think, we were pretty clear about last year unwinding the hub-and-spoke system in Northwest Ohio, where you had multiple handlings of the same container on the network, which is a very expensive way to do that when you're -- a very expensive way to operate, especially when you have very short length of haul associated with that. Last year, we unwound that to a large degree, and we talked about the fact that we took 7% of the volume -- intermodal volumes off the company in the third quarter of last year. And to be honest with you, at that point in time, we thought we had fixed the intermodal network to a large degree. What we uncovered as we went through 2018 then and began to try and build and make our terminals more effective and our trains more efficient, that we were doing similar things to the hub-and-spoke in Northwest Ohio. We were doing that same kind of double or triple handling of containers in many other locations on the railroad. So we are unwinding those. We got rid of, I would say, about 1/3 of that earlier this year before the peak. And we have another piece of business that we will unwind, rationalize the lanes, get out of doing some of this double and triple handling of containers. And that'll happen at the beginning of the year after peak season. And we'll clearly assess before we start doing that kind of stuff, what the weather situation looks like and everything like that. Our goal here is to work with our customers. Our customers clearly understand what we are doing. And in a lot of cases have been published not only in the media but in various analyst reports, saying that what they're doing makes total sense. You can't be everything to everyone, and we're not here to win a blue ribbon for volume. We're here to win an award for being safe, customer-focused and efficient and making money.

是的。我想目標是——我認為我們去年已相當清楚地說明，我們正在拆解俄亥俄州西北部的樞紐—輻射（hub-and-spoke）系統；在那個系統下，同一個貨櫃在網路中會被多次裝卸處理，這是一種成本非常高的做法——一種非常昂貴的營運方式，尤其是在運距很短的情況下更是如此。去年我們在很大程度上拆解了那套系統，並且談到我們在去年第三季把7%的量——也就是聯運量——從公司業務中移除。坦白說，在那個時間點，我們以為聯運網路在很大程度上已經修好了。但當我們走過2018年、並開始嘗試讓我們的場站更有效、列車更有效率時，我們發現我們在做的事情其實跟俄亥俄州西北部的樞紐—輻射很類似。我們在鐵路的許多其他地點，也在做同樣那種貨櫃的二次或三次裝卸處理。所以我們正在把這些拆解掉。我會說，我們在今年稍早、旺季之前，已經先處理掉大約三分之一。而我們還有另一部分業務會再拆解，將路線做合理化，退出一些這種貨櫃二次、三次裝卸的作業。這會在旺季過後、明年年初發生。而在我們開始做這類事情之前，我們會清楚評估天氣狀況以及所有相關因素。我們的目標是在這裡與客戶合作。我們的客戶清楚理解我們在做什麼。而且在很多情況下，不僅媒體、也在各種分析師報告中都有提到，說我們所做的完全合理。你不可能對每個人都面面俱到，我們也不是來爭取「量」的藍絲帶獎。我們是要因為安全、以客戶為中心、有效率並且能賺錢而得獎。

Our next question comes from Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

下一個問題來自UBS的Tom Wadewitz。

Yes. Congratulations on the strong result. Wanted to ask a question about -- you talked about these intermodal changes in service. You've previously -- or just now you said kind of 7-point impact to volume with what you did last year. Can you give kind of a framework of the changes you made in August this year, what you might do in first quarter next year? Is that a bigger impact? Or what might be the total volume impact from those changes?

是的。恭喜你們交出強勁的結果。我想問一個問題——你們談到這些聯運服務的變更。你們先前——或你剛才提到，去年你們所做的事情對運量大概有7個百分點的影響。你能否提供一個架構，說明你們今年8月做了哪些變更、以及明年第一季可能會做什麼？那會是更大的影響嗎？或者這些變更對總運量的影響可能是多少？

Yes. So Tom, the 2 announcements that we made, one, late August and went to effect in mid-September, had to have been a 2% impact on our volumes. And then the one that we announced early October, that won't take effect until early January, is about 5%. So combined, it would be about the same as the volume impact that we announced, I guess, this time last year. So...

是的。所以Tom，我們做了兩項公告：第一項在8月下旬宣布、並在9月中旬生效，對我們的運量影響應該是2%。第二項在10月初宣布，要到1月初才會生效，大約是5%。所以合計起來，大概會跟我們——我想——差不多就是去年這個時候所宣布的運量影響相同。所以……

Okay. Great. And then wanted to see if you could offer some thoughts on kind of where you're at with the sales force and getting them kind of -- I guess the sales force energized and the right people in place and the engagement with the customers in terms of selling for the carload customers to leverage the service and maybe convert some truck freight. And then also if you had a little more color on the BN agreement, kind of what the nature is and what you're doing with BN in Northwest Ohio.

好的。很好。另外想請你談談你們在銷售團隊方面目前的進展——也就是如何讓銷售團隊更有動能、把合適的人放在合適的位置，以及在與客戶互動方面，針對整車（carload）客戶如何運用服務優勢、也許把一些卡車貨源轉換過來。另外也想請你再多補充一些關於BN協議的細節——它的性質是什麼，以及你們在俄亥俄州西北部與BN在做些什麼。

That's a crafty way of asking a follow-up. So clearly, what I've been focused on here the last 2.5 months has been putting together an organization that, I believe, will be required going forward to sell what we believe is a truly exceptional service product. We at CSX have a lot of people in sales and marketing over the 1.5 years. Some of those people have left the organization. Some people are wearing dual hats. Some people are doing some other things. So one of my first priorities was to truly understand what I had. We just completed, a couple of weeks ago, a sales meeting for every sales and marketing person in the organization, where we invited the entire senior management team, a lot of the senior operating folks to come together and explain to them what we're trying to achieve, what we're trying to do, sell service, not price. I explained to them our service product, that we actually have a product now to go in and sell to the customer. And we don't just throw in a place in the hat and hope we have the lowest price. So we're doing a lot, and we're focusing on creating a winning culture in our sales department. And they are incentivized, as we just started a sales incentive program to incent them on doing what they're supposed to do and get out and sell. So last question?

這是一個很狡猾的追問方式。很明顯，我過去2個半月的重點，是建立一個我相信未來要銷售我們所認為真正卓越的服務產品所必需的組織。在過去1.5年裡，我們CSX在銷售與行銷方面有很多人。其中一些人已經離開組織。有些人身兼兩職。有些人在做其他事情。所以我最優先的事項之一，是真正了解我手上有哪些資源。我們在幾週前剛完成一場銷售會議，讓組織內每一位銷售與行銷人員都參加；我們邀請了整個高階管理團隊，以及許多資深營運主管一起來，向他們說明我們想達成什麼、想做什麼——賣服務，而不是賣價格。我向他們解釋了我們的服務產品：我們現在確實有一個產品可以進去賣給客戶。我們不再只是把名字丟進帽子裡，然後希望我們的價格最低。所以我們正在做很多事，並且聚焦於在銷售部門打造一種勝利文化。而他們也有激勵機制——我們剛啟動一個銷售獎酬計畫，來激勵他們做他們應該做的事，走出去銷售。所以最後一個問題？

BN.

BN。

BN. That's a haulage agreement, begins here at the end of the month, and we're excited for that. It's -- we're going to grow under this agreement with BN. And we'll -- I think -- clearly, the volumes that we will see through the end of the year will offset some of the lane rationalization issues I talked about. So we should see some growth in our own intermodal business in Q4.

BN。那是一項牽引運輸（haulage）協議，會在本月底開始生效，我們對此感到很興奮。在這項與BN的協議下，我們將會成長。而且我想——很明顯，我們在年底前會看到的運量，將會抵消我提到的一些路線合理化問題。所以我們應該會在第四季看到我們自有聯運業務的一些成長。

Why would you do a -- I mean, why would you do haulage instead of some other way of getting the traffic there?

你為什麼要做——我的意思是，你為什麼要用牽引運輸（haulage），而不是用其他方式把貨流帶到那裡？

Again, let's think of it -- we're up -- we took 7% off, and we're up 3%. So again, we're going to take off some of this business, and we're going to grow the business.

再想想看——我們把7%拿掉了，但我們又成長了3%。所以同樣地，我們會拿掉其中一些業務，同時也會把業務做大。

Haulage is an effective way for us to work together into this Northwest Ohio market. Plus, we have a long-standing relationship with the BNSF because of the -- this is exactly what we do today into the Atlanta market, the Fairburn terminal there. They have haulage from the West Coast all the way into Atlanta. So it's consistent with the way we've done business with them for years.

牽引運輸（haulage）是我們在俄亥俄州西北部市場合作的一種有效方式。此外，我們與BNSF有長期合作關係，因為——這正是我們今天在亞特蘭大市場所做的事，也就是那裡的Fairburn場站。他們從西岸一路到亞特蘭大都有牽引運輸。所以這與我們多年來與他們的合作方式一致。

Our next question comes from David Vernon with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自Bernstein的David Vernon。

Frank, I'm trying to reconcile the acceleration in some of the demurrage fees and the incidentals with what sounds like a railroad that's running a lot faster. How should we be thinking about the point in time when those incidental fees may start to come down as customers begin to comply? And what's really sort of driving the above trend kind of result here in the third quarter on that fee line?

Frank，我正試著把部分滯期費與雜項費用的加速成長，和聽起來鐵路運行速度快了很多這件事對起來。當客戶開始遵循規範時，我們應該如何看待那些雜項費用可能開始下降的時間點？另外，在第三季這條費用線上，究竟是什麼在驅動這種偏上行的趨勢結果？

Yes. Specifically, to the quarter, it had more to do with the change in the in-transit reserve. If you think about the year-over-year change in the transit times, we're much better this quarter than we were a year ago. So the beat against the guidance that we gave you was the revenue reserve adjustment.

是的。就本季而言，主要與在途準備金的變動更有關。如果你看在途時間的年對年變化，本季比一年前好很多。因此，相較於我們給你的指引所出現的超預期，來自於收入準備金的調整。

In terms of your broader comment, I think we're a little surprised that behaviors haven't changed as much as we had expected them to earlier in the year. I think it has less to do with our service product and more to do with the fact that the trucking capacity remains tight. And we've done some changes in the policies and the rates and things that we thought would incent customers to spend the assets a little bit more quickly. So I think if trucking capacity loosens up at some point in time in the future, you could probably see that come down a little bit. But for the next quarter, we've guided you to that $130 million to $140 million range.

就你更廣泛的評論而言，我想我們有點意外，行為改變沒有像我們年初預期的那麼多。我認為這與我們的服務產品關係較小，更多是因為卡車運能仍然吃緊。而且我們也對政策、費率等做了一些調整，我們原以為能激勵客戶更快地周轉資產。所以我想，如果未來某個時間點卡車運能趨於寬鬆，你可能會看到這些費用稍微下降一些。但就下一季而言，我們給你的指引仍是1.30億到1.40億美元的區間。

All right. And then maybe just kind of on a related note, the $20 million step-down, is this a new normal on the equipment and other rents line? Or is there something also associated with the kind of the way you're setting up that haulage agreement or the in-transit reserves that would affect that number as well? Should we just be thinking about this as the right run rate on equipment and other rents?

好的。那再問一個相關的問題，2,000萬美元的階梯式下降，這是否會成為設備及其他租金這一行的新常態？或者是否也有一些因素與你們如何設定牽引（haulage）協議或在途準備金有關，進而也會影響這個數字？我們是否應該把這視為設備及其他租金的合理常態化水準？

Got you. So neither the haulage deal nor the revenue reserve adjustments have anything to do with rents. What is helping us on the rents is that the days per load for both merchandise and automotive and a little bit even on the intermodal side have gotten so much better that we're having to pay less car hire is really how it translates. I'm not -- we're not going to give run rates in terms of any of the various expense line items, but as our velocity continues to improve, as our dwell continues to improve, as the customers do their part of the bargain in loading and unloading, you'll continue to see days per load improve, and you'll continue to see us provide efficiencies on car hire.

了解。所以牽引交易和收入準備金調整都與租金無關。租金這邊對我們有利的是，無論是一般貨運（merchandise）還是汽車業務，甚至聯運（intermodal）也有一點，單趟裝載的天數（days per load）改善很多，因此我們需要支付的車輛租用費（car hire）更少，實際上就是這樣反映出來的。我不會——我們不會就各項費用科目提供所謂的常態化運行率，但隨著我們的運行速度持續提升、停留時間（dwell）持續改善，以及客戶在裝卸上履行其應盡的部分，你會持續看到單趟裝載天數改善，也會持續看到我們在車輛租用費上帶來效率提升。

Our next question comes from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自Barclays的Brandon Oglenski。

So Mark, I just want to get your perspective now heading the marketing organization sales efforts. We talked a lot last summer about CSX service, I guess, "failing," or at least that's what a lot of the industry pundits wanted to say. But how are customers engaging you today? And what's the competitive outlook looking like on some of the multi-year contracts into '19 and to '20? Because you guys clearly have taken some costs out of the equation. From our perspective, velocity is up, but how do we really measure that from a customer service perspective?

Mark，我想請你從現在領導行銷組織銷售工作的角度談談你的看法。去年夏天我們談了很多CSX的服務，我想，算是「失靈」，至少很多產業評論人士是這麼說的。但客戶現在是如何與你們互動的？而在一些跨年度合約（到2019年、2020年）方面，競爭態勢看起來如何？因為你們顯然已經把一些成本從等式中拿掉了。從我們的角度看，運行速度提升了，但從客戶服務的角度，我們要如何真正衡量？

Well, I've been spending a lot of time recently with customers. As Jim talked about, I think, last quarter, my #1 priority was to get out there and sort of reestablish some relationships with some of these customers. And I've been doing that. I don't think I've been home very much. But clearly, they have -- they are witnessing the service product that we told them that was coming. They were not too happy with us last fall, but we told them to -- we are going to improve, and we have improved and they are witnessing that every day. Clearly, they want to keep doing business with CSX. They don't want to -- they want to move more freight to rail and to CSX rather than truck, and they're doing that. We see evidence of that, especially like our forest products business and our metals business. You'll see those double-digit growth in volumes in Q3. That is us winning back share that those customers had to move to truck last year or earlier in the year because our service levels weren't where they should have been. I've been visiting a lot of those customers, and they want to use us. And as we continue to get better and continue to improve, more and more of that freight is coming back to CSX. And you'll continue to see that more in spades in Q4 and going forward.

嗯，我最近花了很多時間和客戶在一起。正如Jim上季談到的，我想我的第一優先事項就是走出去，重新建立與其中一些客戶的關係。我一直在做這件事。我想我幾乎沒怎麼回家。但很明顯，他們已經——他們正在見證我們告訴他們即將到來的服務產品。去年秋天他們對我們不太滿意，但我們告訴他們——我們會改善，而我們確實改善了，他們每天都在見證。很明顯，他們希望繼續與CSX做生意。他們不想——他們希望把更多貨運從卡車轉到鐵路、轉到CSX，而且他們正在這麼做。我們看到這方面的證據，特別是在我們的林產品業務和金屬業務。你會在第三季看到那些運量的雙位數成長。那是我們贏回市占；那些客戶去年或今年稍早因為我們的服務水準未達應有水準，不得不把貨轉到卡車。我拜訪了很多這些客戶，他們想用我們。而隨著我們持續變得更好、持續改善，越來越多的貨會回到CSX。你會在第四季以及之後更明顯地看到這一點。

I mean, I guess, in that context then, can you just remind us the long-term volume outlook you guys provided back in February? I think it was across merchandise and intermodal and whether maybe that could prove ultimately conservative.

我的意思是，在這樣的脈絡下，你能否提醒我們一下，你們在2月提供的長期運量展望？我記得是涵蓋一般貨運與聯運，並且是否最終可能會被證明偏保守。

Yes, we did not give you volume guidance. We gave you revenue guidance and...

是的，我們沒有提供運量指引。我們提供的是營收指引，而且……

Sorry, revenue.

抱歉，營收。

Yes, we're putting together our plans for 2019, as Jim mentioned, and we'll provide some more color on that on the January call.

是的，正如Jim提到的，我們正在制定2019年的計畫，我們會在1月的電話會議上提供更多說明。

Our next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自Wolfe Research的Scott Group。

So Frank, can you give us maybe a little bit of guidance on real estate gains and headcount for the fourth quarter? And then big picture, I think at the Analyst Day, over the 3-year plan, you talked about a 6,000 reduction in headcount. Is that still the right long-term number to use?

Frank，你能否就第四季的不動產處分收益與員工人數給我們一些指引？然後從大方向來看，我記得在分析師日的三年計畫中，你們談到要減少6,000名員工。那仍然是適用的長期數字嗎？

So in terms of the year, what Jim talked about in terms of guidance is we put out the 2,000 total workforce number, and we're essentially there. I think we'll continue to look for opportunities in Q4 to reduce that further. We'll certainly have a number internally for 2019 and beyond. Whether or not we share that, we'll certainly -- we'll talk about that as we prepare for the January call. But we're going to continue -- even with the volume increases that we believe will come on, we're going to continue to look for labor efficiencies. You should expect that to be part of how we continue to drive operating leverage going forward.

就全年而言，關於Jim談到的指引，我們對外給的是總人力減少2,000人的數字，而我們基本上已經達成。我想我們在第四季會繼續尋找機會進一步降低。我們內部當然會有2019年及之後的相關數字。至於是否對外分享，我們當然——會在準備1月電話會議時再談。但我們會持續——即便我們相信運量會增加，我們仍會持續尋求人力效率。你應該預期這會是我們未來持續推動營運槓桿的一部分。

In terms of your real estate and line sale questions, we gave the $300 million, 3-year sales proceeds for real estate with upside in line sales. In the quarter, when you think about the split there, the gains were $43 million on line sales and $10 million on real estate. The line sales there are probably a little bit heavier on the gain side than they will be in the future. And part of the reason for that is one of the things that we characterized as a line sale was the lease conversion, so you see more gain on that one than you would have in normal line sale. So we're off to a strong start. We've got a big pipeline. Q4 will depend on whether or not we see the things closing at the end of the year. There's always nuances around whether something closes in December and January. If it closes in December, we'll have a good fourth quarter.

至於你關於不動產與路線出售的問題，我們給的是三年期不動產出售所得3億美元，且路線出售有上行空間。就本季而言，若你看其拆分，路線出售的收益為4,300萬美元，不動產為1,000萬美元。其中路線出售的收益占比，未來可能不會像這次這麼高。部分原因是，我們所稱的路線出售項目之一其實是租賃轉換（lease conversion），因此你會在那一項看到比一般路線出售更高的收益。所以我們開局很強。我們有很大的案源管線。第四季將取決於我們是否看到這些案子在年底前完成交割。因為總會有一些細節差異，決定是12月還是1月完成。如果在12月完成，那我們第四季就會表現不錯。

Okay. I guess that's helpful. And then, Mark, for you, as truckload spot pricing has softened a little bit, is that having any impact in terms of your pricing discussions as you look out to 2019 pricing?

好的。我想這很有幫助。接著，Mark，隨著整車（truckload）即期運價稍微走弱，這在你們展望 2019 年定價、進行定價討論時，是否造成任何影響？

Well, I'm not going to get into 2019 pricing, but it's having 0 impact on where we are today.

嗯，我不打算談 2019 年的定價，但這對我們目前的狀況沒有任何影響，影響為 0。

Our next question comes from Justin Long with Stephens.

下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Justin Long。

So Jim, maybe to start with one for you. I know you've made some changes in your coal team. I believe you said that you're thinking big as it relates to changes that you're contemplating for that business. Could you expand on where you stand as it relates to any structural changes you're assessing for the coal franchise and what some of those options could look like?

Jim，我先從你這邊開始問一題。我知道你們在煤炭團隊做了一些調整。我記得你提到，針對你們正在考慮的業務變革，你們是以更宏觀的角度在思考。你能否進一步說明，你們目前在評估煤炭事業（coal franchise）任何結構性調整方面的進度，以及可能的選項會是什麼樣子？

I guess the correct answer is we are always looking at what's the best way for us to be structured and are there more efficient arrangements, structures, enterprise structures, whatever it is, in order to maximize value. But we certainly don't have anything like that on the horizon or near term. I'll let Mark follow up on the other parts of your question.

我想正確的回答是：我們一直都在看，什麼樣的架構對我們最好，以及是否存在更有效率的安排、架構、企業架構等等，以便將價值最大化。但我們當然沒有任何這類事情在可預見的未來或短期內會發生。我讓 Mark 來補充你問題的其他部分。

Yes. As I think about -- you may have seen recently, we just hired a new Vice President of Coal, Shon Yates. Shon was a former energy trader, former coal customer, brilliant guy. And he's coming into this role. He's been here about 30 days. And he's got a lot of ideas. And so as we think about our domestic coal business and the future of export, Shon's bringing a lot of innovative ways and look forward to him helping us go forward with our coal business.

是的。就我來看——你可能最近有看到，我們剛聘請了新的煤炭事業副總裁 Shon Yates。Shon 之前是能源交易員、也是前煤炭客戶，非常聰明的人。他將進入這個職位。他來這裡大約 30 天。他有很多想法。因此，當我們思考國內煤炭業務以及出口的未來時，Shon 帶來了許多創新的做法，我也期待他能協助我們推動煤炭業務向前發展。

Okay, great. And secondly, this one's probably for Frank. On CapEx, you mentioned that you've pulled forward some of your spending on PTC. I just wanted to ask what drove that decision. And going forward, any change to your expectation on total CapEx for PTC or operating expense for PTC in the future?

好的，很棒。第二題，這題可能是問 Frank。關於資本支出（CapEx），你提到你們把 PTC 的部分支出提前了。我想請問是什麼原因促成這個決定。另外往後看，你們對 PTC 的總資本支出預期，或未來 PTC 的營運費用（operating expense）預期，是否會有任何改變？

Yes, got you. Good question. So no change in the overall guidance for the full PTC project. We've been saying $2.4 billion completed project for a number of years now. We're still on that trajectory. We're at about $2.2 billion now. The decision that Jim made was if it's going to be a safer railroad, let's go ahead and do everything we can to get it done more quickly. The team is fully engaged in doing that. We'll still need the extension and plan to submit our request for the extension in the next couple of months, but we're making great progress there. No change in the PTC OpEx outlook. It's very consistent with what we told you in prior quarters. And yes, the overall $4.8 billion CapEx over 3 years is still fully intact.

是的，了解。好問題。所以，整體 PTC 專案的全年指引沒有改變。我們多年來一直說，整個專案完工總額是 24 億美元。我們仍然在那個軌道上。目前我們大約在 22 億美元左右。Jim 做這個決定的原因是：如果這能讓鐵路更安全，那我們就盡一切可能更快把它完成。團隊也全力投入在做這件事。我們仍需要延期，並計畫在接下來幾個月內提交延期申請，但我們在這方面進展非常好。PTC 的營運費用（OpEx）展望沒有改變。這與我們在前幾季告訴你們的內容非常一致。另外，是的，三年合計 48 億美元的資本支出仍完全不變。

Our next question comes from Matt Reustle with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自 Goldman Sachs 的 Matt Reustle。

Yes, just following up on CapEx. You also referenced there was a piece of the increase this year associated with hurricane relief. So should we just assume that's a very small piece of it if the overall budget of $4.8 billion is still intact for the next 3 years?

是的，我想追問一下資本支出。你也提到今年增加的一部分與颶風救災有關。所以，如果未來三年的整體預算 48 億美元仍維持不變，我們是否可以假設那只是其中非常小的一部分？

Yes. It's going to be somewhere for Hurricane Florence in the $20-ish million range. And PTC, obviously, will pull in some of that forward. And we got some other high-return projects that we have approved in the last couple of months. Obviously, with Ed, Mark and Jim, they've got some ideas and things that can help us be more effective and more efficient, and we're implementing those with some additional capital.

是的。颶風 Florence 的部分大概會在 2,000 多萬美元的範圍。而 PTC 顯然也會把其中一些支出往前拉。另外，我們在過去幾個月也核准了一些其他高報酬的專案。很明顯地，隨著 Ed、Mark 和 Jim，他們有一些想法與事項能幫助我們更有效、更有效率，我們也正透過額外的資本來落實這些。

Understood. Okay. And then back to the other revenue line. Is there a normalized run rate that you think about, whether we get there in '19 or not, when you eventually do start to see those demurrage fees and customer behavior change? And what is that? And do you think that you can offset a big portion of that with improved efficiency on the network?

了解。好的。接著回到「其他營收」那一行。當你們最終開始看到那些滯期費（demurrage）以及客戶行為改變時，不論我們是否在 2019 年達到，你們心中是否有一個正常化的運行水準（normalized run rate）？那會是多少？另外，你是否認為可以透過提升路網效率來抵銷其中很大一部分？

Yes. We really haven't gotten to the point where we're willing to give a long-term guide on that particular line. Just to give you some color, if you looked at it on a year-over-year basis, about 3/4 of the year-over-year increase is demurrage, incidental, storage fees, et cetera, on both the carload and the intermodal lines, and about 1/4 of it that in-transit reserve that I mentioned earlier. Certainly, if we are spinning the railroad faster and faster, you're going to see an offsetting decrease in your rents line because car hire is going to be lower.

是的。我們其實還沒到願意就那一特定項目給出長期指引的程度。給你一些背景，如果你用年對年來看，年增幅中大約 3/4 來自滯期費、雜項費用、倉儲費等，涵蓋整車（carload）與聯運（intermodal）兩條線；另外約 1/4 來自我先前提到的在途準備（in-transit reserve）。當然，如果我們讓鐵路運轉得越來越快，你會看到你們的租賃（rents）項目會出現相對應的下降，因為車輛租用費（car hire）會更低。

Our next question comes from Walter Spracklin with RBC.

下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Walter Spracklin。

Just starting on the volume -- or the revenue guidance. When we were asking you last quarter about the kind of trend there, you were a little reluctant to give any change to your formal guidance based on some of the uncertainty in coal. I'm just wondering if with this change, is it that you've gotten some more visibility on coal? Or is it that the rest of the noncoal businesses is just ramping up that even with your current outlook on coal, you felt in the position to be able to increase your guidance?

我先從運量——或營收指引開始問。上季我們問你們那方面的趨勢時，你們因為煤炭存在一些不確定性，而對是否調整正式指引有點保留。我想問的是，這次調整是因為你們對煤炭有了更多能見度嗎？還是因為其他非煤炭業務的成長加速，以致即便在你們目前對煤炭的展望下，你們也覺得可以上調指引？

Walter, great to talk to you. I think that from the very beginning, each quarter, I've said we were going to be -- I think in January, we're going to be a touch better than slightly up. And into the next quarter, I think we're going to be a touch better than slightly up, which kind of got us to, like I said, the 5% range. We've said many, many times -- and now we're going up, hey, you know, 6 to 8, let's say -- let's call it 7, so we're going from 5% to 7% or whatever, 5.5% to 7%. Clearly, at the beginning of the year, I think everybody expected that export coal was going to tail off at the midpoint of the year. And it has stayed strong and it continues to stay strong. So yes, I mean, when we have that big of a piece of our business, that has each -- that has not declined but is still growing, not necessarily growing more than we expected. It's just everybody said it was going to drop off, and it hasn't. So that's had a big part in the change in our outlook. Plus, as I said in my -- at the very beginning, all of our business units are growing. The economy is very, very strong. All of our customers are very optimistic about the outlook, the forest products, pulpboard, paper, lumber, metal, you name it, plastics. Mark can probably add. He's talked to all the customers. Mark can throw in some more comments, some more color.

Walter，很高興跟你交流。我想從一開始，每一季我都說我們會——我記得在一月時，我說我們會比「小幅成長」再好一點。到了下一季，我也說我們會比「小幅成長」再好一點，這大致把我們帶到我說的約 5% 左右。我們也講過很多很多次——而現在我們要上調到，嘿，你知道的，6 到 8 之間——就取 7 吧，所以我們大概是從 5% 到 7%（或 5.5% 到 7%）這樣的變化。很明顯，在年初時，我想大家都預期出口煤會在年中開始走弱。但它一直維持強勁，而且持續強勁。所以是的，當這是我們業務中這麼大的一塊，而它每——它並沒有下滑，反而仍在成長；不一定是比我們預期成長更多。只是大家都說它會下滑，但它沒有。因此，這在我們展望的改變中占了很大一部分。另外，如同我在——一開始就說的，我們所有事業單位都在成長。經濟非常、非常強勁。我們所有客戶對前景都非常樂觀，林產品、紙漿紙板、紙張、木材、金屬，你說得出的，還有塑膠。Mark 可能可以補充。他跟所有客戶都談過。Mark 可以再加一些評論、提供更多背景。

Yes. And I think we can talk about export coal and the strength of export coal all day long. But what's really pleasing me these days is just the strength our service products. Our customers are taking notice, and we're gaining market share and growing this volume on the merchandise side. Let's not lose sight of that. It's -- we're doing really, really well in merchandise. We are doing good in intermodal. We announced 7% lane rationalizations at the end of last year, and we're growing intermodal. And so things are healthy out there. People want to do business with CSX. And somebody said, north of the border, last quarter it's a good time to be in the rail business, but I think it's an even better time to be in CSX right now.

是的。我想我們可以整天談出口煤以及出口煤的強勁表現。但最近真正讓我感到欣慰的是我們服務產品的強勁表現。客戶已經注意到了，我們正在取得市占率，並在商品業務端擴大這個運量。別忽略了這一點。我們在商品業務方面表現非常、非常好。我們在聯運方面也做得不錯。我們在去年年底宣布了7%的路線精簡調整，而我們的聯運仍在成長。因此外部情況很健康。大家都想和CSX做生意。有人在邊境以北說，上季是投入鐵路業的好時機，但我認為現在加入CSX是更好的時機。

That's great. And similar vein here, Jim, on your operating ratio target of 60%, 2 years ahead of schedule. You said it came in better than you expected. What area would you say really, really blew out the lights in terms of what you're expecting at the beginning of the year and what actually happened here 3 quarters through?

太好了。同樣的脈絡下，Jim，你們的營運比率目標60%比原計畫提前了兩年達成。你說結果比你預期的還要好。你會說是哪個領域在年初的預期與實際到目前為止三個季度的表現之間，真正、真正超出預期、表現最亮眼？

Well, it's across the board. I think we're just doing -- it's not just one thing that suddenly went like, oh, wow, look at this. It's across the board. We had a massive reengineering at CSX. And the question was not in my mind, as I said at the beginning, about a year ago or a little less than a year ago, it was not that this company couldn't get to the 60% operating ratio. It was a question of when. And so yes, there has been, from what Mark has just talked about, major, major changes on the revenue side of the business, restructuring that side of the business, getting rid of the intermodal standalone business. I mean, it's a whole, whole new management team with really bright, energetic people. And then you go down to the operating side of the business, in every facet and just, I mean, the -- every measurement that we have out there in terms of velocity, flow, train delays, crew utilization, we get down into the -- I'm sure you've heard us talk about our tax -- Fred's talking about taxing hotel expenses. We've got people around here that are probably counting how many Dixie cups we're using because we are constantly focusing on improving the way we run the business. And in every area, we are doing better, faster, than I think all of us thought we could do it.

嗯，是全面性的。我認為我們就是在做——並不是某一件事突然變成「哇，看看這個」。而是全方位的提升。我們在CSX進行了大規模的再造工程。而我心中的問題——正如我在大約一年前或不到一年前一開始就說過的——不是這家公司能不能達到60%的營運比率。而是什麼時候能達到。所以是的，正如Mark剛剛談到的，在營收端確實有重大、重大的變革：重整那一端的業務，取消獨立運作的聯運業務。我的意思是，這是一個全新的管理團隊，成員都非常聰明、有活力、充滿幹勁。接著你再看營運端的每一個面向——我的意思是——我們所有的衡量指標，不論是速度、流量、列車延誤、乘務員利用率，我們都深入到——我相信你們聽過我們談到「稅」——Fred在談要對飯店費用「課稅」。我們這裡甚至可能有人在數我們用了多少個Dixie紙杯，因為我們一直專注於改善營運方式。而且在每個領域，我們做得更好、也更快，超出我想我們所有人原本以為能做到的速度。

I just want to clarify what we heard from Mark there in September. It's not that you've hit 60 now you're done. My impression from Mark was we're still early days of implementing precision railroad. So if you hit 60%, there's still plenty more to go. Is that a fair assessment?

我只是想釐清一下我們在9月從Mark那裡聽到的意思。並不是你們現在達到60%就結束了。我從Mark那裡的印象是，我們仍處於導入精準鐵路營運（precision railroad）的早期階段。所以即使達到60%，後面還有很多可以做。這樣的理解公平嗎？

Mark's a Canadian, so he thinks in hockey terms. And so Mark's still in the first period. I think in baseball terms, we're in the early innings. We have a lot of improvement to do, a lot of things to get done. And yes, there's no -- I don't know where this whole idea came where all of a sudden, you hit a number and everybody says "Oh, we pivot." We've been -- I certainly have -- I've been working really, really hard here to grow this business since the day I walked in the door. And how do we -- and how do you grow the business? By running a better railroad. Simple as that. It's not like, oh, forget the customer, the hell with the customer, just focus on ripping out costs. It's not what precision scheduled railroading is about. And that's not the way we've run the business since the day I walked in here.

Mark是加拿大人，所以他用冰球的方式思考。所以對Mark來說，我們還在第一節。我用棒球的方式思考，我們還在前幾局。我們還有很多改善要做，還有很多事情要完成。而且是的——我不知道這種想法從哪裡來：好像突然達到某個數字，大家就說「喔，我們要轉向了。」我們一直——至少我一直——從我踏進門的那一天起，就非常、非常努力地在推動業務成長。那要怎麼——要怎麼讓業務成長？就是把鐵路營運做得更好。就這麼簡單。不是那種「喔，別管客戶了，去他的客戶，只要專注於砍成本」的做法。精準排程鐵路（precision scheduled railroading）不是這個意思。而且自從我來到這裡的那一天起，我們就不是用那種方式在經營。

Our next question comes from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的Ravi Shanker。

Just a couple left here. Your service levels have improved significantly, obviously, since this time last year. Can you just remind us kind of what level of STB supervision still exists and kind of when that will lift kind of given that you guys have proven that last year's issues no longer exist?

這裡只剩幾個問題。你們的服務水準顯著改善，顯然相較於去年同期。你能否提醒我們，目前仍存在的STB監督大概到什麼程度，以及鑑於你們已證明去年的問題已不再存在，這種監督大概何時會解除？

I think we might be the only one. When we last -- when the STB said -- and that was in March, I believe, that said that we no longer have to make weekly calls with the STB and what I -- using my words, took us off the watchlist. They put everybody else on the watchlist. And I know that a few other railroads are still on it today. So we're, by far, if not the best, one of the best running railroads. And so there's no reason whatsoever that we would be under any kind of added supervision.

我想我們可能是唯一一個。上一次——當STB表示——我記得是在3月——他們說我們不再需要每週與STB進行例行通話，而且用我的話說，就是把我們從觀察名單上移除了。他們把其他所有人都放上了觀察名單。而我知道今天仍有幾家其他鐵路公司還在名單上。所以我們遠遠地——即使不是最好，也是營運最好的之一。因此我們完全沒有任何理由會受到任何額外監督。

Got it. Understood. And just speaking of other railroads, can you just give us a little more color on this lawsuit that you filed versus your regional peer about access to the Port of Virginia?

了解。明白。另外談到其他鐵路公司，你能否就你們針對區域同業提起、關於進入維吉尼亞港（Port of Virginia）權限的訴訟，再多提供一些背景說明？

Sure. Yes. What it is, is it's kind of a corporate governance issue where CSX and NS jointly own this third-party entity that provides switching access to Port of Virginia. And over time, over time -- and all the things in the railroad business, it evolves over time into a situation where we have a minority representation on this company, which used to be 50-50. And we don't feel we are being provided the appropriate access to the terminals in Virginia. And we believe that it's as a result of the other guy's disproportionate ownership. So we're going to defend ourselves in court, simple as that.

當然。是的。事情是這樣：這有點像公司治理問題。CSX和NS共同持有一家第三方實體，該實體提供進入維吉尼亞港的調車（switching）接取服務。而隨著時間推移——在鐵路業所有事情都是隨時間演變——情況演變成我們在這家公司只有少數席次的代表權，而過去是50對50。我們認為我們沒有獲得對維吉尼亞各碼頭（terminals）應有的適當接取權。我們相信這是因為對方持股比例不成比例所導致。所以我們會在法庭上捍衛自己，就這麼簡單。

Got it. And if you guys do see a favorable resolution there, does that result in kind of more coal volumes or better pricing? How do we see that in the numbers?

了解。如果你們在那件事上得到有利的解決，是否會帶來更多煤炭運量或更好的定價？我們會如何在數字上看到這些影響？

Intermodal -- access to the intermodal terminals in Virginia, bids and that.

聯運——是關於進入維吉尼亞的聯運場站（intermodal terminals）的接取權、投標之類的。

Our next question comes from Bascome Majors with Susquehanna Financial Group.

下一個問題來自Susquehanna Financial Group的Bascome Majors。

It's very clear that the network is running really well right now. Can you give us an update on where you are in the process of perhaps naming a permanent COO and sort of what you guys and the board want to see before you're comfortable making that decision?

很明顯，目前網路運行得非常順暢。您能否更新一下，關於您們在可能任命一位永久的營運長（COO）的流程進展到哪一步，以及在您們覺得可以放心做出該決定之前，您們與董事會希望看到哪些條件？

Who? chief Operating Officer? COO?

誰？營運長？COO？

Yes, Chief Operating Officer.

是的，營運長（Chief Operating Officer）。

Yes, it's not on my radar at all. I got an extremely solid team right now that -- Mark, in just 1 quarter, has done -- I knew he would do an extremely good job, and he's done better than I expected. And Mr. Harris is overseeing the operating function where we have great talent. And so I'm very, very comfortable with the way the company is structured today. And now that is not to say that we are not always cognizant of the fact that and myself as a member of the Board of Directors need to make sure that we're doing the appropriate due diligence on a succession planning. And so that's all part of this process that we're going to be putting in. Again, Ed's working really hard to develop and we have an extremely talented group of individuals on the operating side of the business. And that will -- on Mark's leadership, we have really a stellar group of people in the sales side of the business. So along with Frank and the finance people, Diana and Nathan, the other executive leadership team around here, we are rock solid. People go like, hey, are you going to hire somebody? We're not going to hire anybody. There's nobody out there that's better than we are. Now are we going to find who can be the future leader of the company? Yes. And hopefully, we can -- hopefully, that comes from inside. And so that's what we're working on developing.

是的，這完全不在我的考量範圍內。我現在有一個非常穩健的團隊——Mark 在短短一個季度內所做的——我知道他會做得非常好，而他做得比我預期還要好。而 Harris 先生正在督導營運職能，我們在那裡也有很優秀的人才。因此，我對公司目前的組織架構感到非常、非常放心。當然，這並不是說我們不會時時意識到這一點；而我作為董事會成員，也必須確保我們在接班人規劃上做足適當的盡職調查。所以這些都會納入我們即將推動的流程之中。再說一次，Ed 正非常努力地培養人才，而我們在營運端也有一群極具才幹的人。在 Mark 的領導下，我們在銷售端同樣擁有一支非常出色的團隊。因此，加上 Frank 與財務團隊的同仁 Diana 和 Nathan，以及這裡其他的高階管理團隊，我們非常穩固。有人會問：嘿，你們要不要再聘人？我們不會再聘任何人。外面沒有比我們更好的人。那我們會不會去找出誰能成為公司未來的領導者？會。而且希望——希望那會來自內部。所以這就是我們正在努力培養的方向。

Just one more really high level, and then I'll pass it on. But I mean, if you look back for the last 2 quarters, CSX earned more than the prior regime did in its best full year. And it looks like you're going to end this year pretty close to the margin target you laid out this spring for 2020. I mean, and you said you're exceeding your own expectations, not just ours here. I mean, all good news. But clearly, the pace that you're on this year can't continue forever. How do you think about and what do you consider when managing sort of investor expectations going forward? You keep talking to January, kind of more on January. Are we going to hear a comprehensive revisit of the long-term plan there given the progress you've made? Or is it going to be more about here's how we're looking for 2019?

再一個非常高層次的問題，然後我就交給下一位。如果回顧過去兩個季度，CSX 的獲利已經超過前一個管理團隊在其最佳完整年度的表現。而且看起來你們今年結束時，距離你們今年春天為 2020 年提出的利潤率目標會非常接近。你也說你們超出自己的預期，不只是超出我們的預期。這些都是好消息。但顯然，你們今年這樣的進展速度不可能永遠持續。在往後管理投資人預期時，你們會如何思考、會考量哪些因素？你一直提到一月，似乎更聚焦在一月。鑑於你們已取得的進展，我們在那時會聽到對長期計畫的全面重新檢視嗎？還是會更偏向於：這是我們對 2019 年的看法？

Again, we're not planning on doing another Investor Day to reboot sort of the thing that is no -- there's no need to. We've got -- we have -- we are nowhere near the finish line here. We've got a lot of opportunity ahead of us. And we'll kind of try and get -- we will try to give you as much visibility towards that as we're comfortable doing at the end of the year.

再說一次，我們不打算再辦一次投資人日來重新啟動什麼——沒有必要。我們——我們離終點線還差得遠。我們前方還有很多機會。而在年底時，我們會在我們覺得合適的範圍內，盡可能提供你們更多的能見度。

Our next question comes from Cherilyn Radbourne with TD Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Securities 的 Cherilyn Radbourne。

Wanted to ask about trip plan compliance because that strikes me as more of a customer-facing operating metric. And I think you indicated last quarter that trip plan compliance is around 60%. So I was just wondering if you could update us on that metric this quarter and talk about what the upper limit is. In other words, I assume that 100% is impractical, but what's best in class on trip compliance?

我想詢問行程計畫遵循率（trip plan compliance），因為這看起來更像是一個面向客戶的營運指標。我記得你們上季提到行程計畫遵循率大約在 60%。所以我想請你們更新一下本季這個指標的情況，並談談它的上限大概在哪裡。換句話說，我想 100% 可能不切實際，但在行程遵循率方面，業界最佳水準大概是多少？

Trip plan compliance, I mean, yes, I mean, it's a critical component. It does 2 things. It measures how well the railroad is running. It measures reliability because when we fail, the car is not going to get there when we said it was going to get there, simple as that. So when we say we're at 65 -- 60%, 65% of the cars met their trip plans, that means that 30%, 35% of them didn't. And 30%, 35% of them that we said that we're going to be there by Thursday at 11 o'clock weren't. So that number is huge. And then when we miss, not only do we disappoint the customer and not have a delivery when we said we were going to do, we then have to go back and we have to handle that car again. That means we have -- if we miss it, we have to handle it again. And therefore, there's where the dual cost come in. So that's why this measure is so significant because it shows that, hey, you didn't need to do it 2 or 3 times to get it there on time and you got it there on time. So the customer was happy and we did it in the most efficient manner. And that's why trip plan compliance is so critical. If we're at 60% -- if we were at 60%, 65%, we're -- in the end of the first quarter, we're up 28% or whatever the number was I said, 26%, improved from there. So somebody do the math, 70 -- high 70s kind of range right now. And we need to get that number -- obviously, we want to get that number to 100%. What's reasonable in this kind of a business where you've got all kinds of things that could bump when you have a problem occasionally. But it's not 75%, it's closer to 95%. And we'll get there and we'll get there as quickly as we possibly can. And If we continue to see this 10% sequentially every quarter, 10% improvement in that metric, then that's going to show how well we're doing.

行程計畫遵循率——是的，這確實是非常關鍵的一環。它有兩個作用。它衡量鐵路運行得有多好。它衡量可靠性，因為當我們失敗時，車輛就不會在我們說的時間到達，就這麼簡單。所以當我們說我們在 65——60%、65% 的車輛符合其行程計畫時，這表示有 30%、35% 沒有。而那 30%、35% 的車輛，我們說會在星期四 11 點前到，但實際上沒有。所以這個數字非常重要。而且當我們未達標時，不僅讓客戶失望、沒有在我們承諾的時間交付，我們還必須回頭再處理那台車一次。也就是說，如果我們錯過了，就得再處理一次。因此，這就是雙重成本產生的地方。所以這個衡量指標之所以如此重要，是因為它顯示：你不需要做兩次或三次才能準時送達，而是一次就準時送達。因此客戶滿意，而我們也以最有效率的方式完成。這就是行程計畫遵循率如此關鍵的原因。如果我們在 60%——如果第一季末我們在 60%、65%，我們提升了 28% 或我說的那個數字 26%，相較於之前有所改善。所以請大家算一下，現在大概在 70% 後段、接近 80% 的區間。而我們需要把這個數字——很明顯，我們希望把它提升到 100%。在這種業務中，合理的水準是多少？因為偶爾會有各種狀況造成波動。但不是 75%，而是更接近 95%。我們會做到，而且會盡可能快地做到。如果我們持續看到每季依序提升 10%——也就是這個指標每季改善 10%——那就會顯示我們做得有多好。

Great. That's helpful. Very quickly, just wondered if you could update us on domestic coal stockpiles post the end of the summer.

很好。這很有幫助。非常快地問一下，夏季結束後，能否更新一下美國國內煤炭庫存（stockpiles）的情況？

Very low in the south. And so the predominance of our coal, domestic coal, utility coal, is for the south. And the stockpiles are low heading into the winter here. So that's a good story for Q4 for us. And I think it's probably one of the quarters that I've seen in a long time that I think our domestic utility coal is actually going to be up in the quarter. So...

南方的水準非常低。因此，我們的煤炭（國內煤、電力用煤）的主導市場是在南方。而且在進入冬季之際，庫存水位偏低。所以這對我們第四季（Q4）來說是個好消息。我認為這可能是我很久以來看到的一個季度，我們的國內電力用煤在該季度實際上會成長。所以……

Our final question comes from Ben Hartford with Robert W. Baird.

我們最後一個問題來自 Robert W. Baird 的 Ben Hartford。

Jim, I'll just come back to the beginning of the call when you made a comment about train accident rates needing to improve. Just looking for some perspective, your experience here relative to PSR implementation at your prior rails. Is it -- is the issue now just constructive dissatisfaction as it relates to safety and train accidents specifically? Has it been weather? Or is it something else that you see kind of specific to this experience that perhaps is causing that to operate on a lag? If it's fair to characterize it as that metric operating on a bit of a lag. Some perspective there would be helpful.

Jim，我想回到電話會議一開始，你提到列車事故率需要改善。想請你提供一些觀點，基於你過去在其他鐵路公司推行 PSR 的經驗來看。目前的問題是否只是出於建設性的「不滿足」，特別是就安全與列車事故而言？是否與天氣有關？或者你是否看到有其他更具體、與這次經驗相關的因素，可能導致這項指標的改善有所滯後？如果可以把它形容為該指標的表現有點滯後的話。若能分享一些看法會很有幫助。

In terms of the implementation of scheduled railroading and its impact on safety, if you look at the past railroads that have implemented PSR, they've always been the safest, whether it was Canadian National and then Canadian Pacific. So the -- it is -- and so it's not related to that we've changed some kind of an operating practice and it results in an issue. The vast majority of those incidents are extremely small, isolated incidents that take place in one of our yards. And they normally involve an engineering defect where something happens in the track structure, whether it's a -- and they're all basically derailments. I mean, there's a few banging -- one car gets banged into another. But a train accident, it's mostly a derailment caused by an engineering situation or a human -- a mistake. And so obviously, we can work on the engineering end of that, which we are aggressively, to make sure that our infrastructure and everything is up to speed in our yards to avoid that; and then secondarily, work with our employees to make sure they understand what the rules are and make sure that they don't do something that causes the car to go on the ground, simple as that.

就計畫性鐵路營運（scheduled railroading）的導入及其對安全的影響而言，如果你看看過去導入 PSR 的鐵路公司，它們一直都是最安全的，無論是加拿大國家鐵路（Canadian National），或後來的加拿大太平洋鐵路（Canadian Pacific）。所以——也就是說——這並不是因為我們改變了某種營運作業方式而導致問題。絕大多數事件都是非常小、零星的個案，發生在我們某個調車場（yard）裡。通常涉及工程缺陷，也就是軌道結構某處出了狀況，不論是——而且基本上都是出軌。我的意思是，也有少數是碰撞——一節車廂撞到另一節。但所謂列車事故，多半是由工程狀況或人為——失誤造成的出軌。因此，顯然我們可以在工程端著手改善，我們也正積極推進，確保我們在調車場的基礎設施與各項設備都達到標準，以避免這類情況；其次，與員工合作，確保他們了解規章，並確保他們不會做出導致車輛落軌的行為，就這麼簡單。

All right. That wraps up our call today. Jim, do you have any final...

好的。今天的電話會議就到這裡。Jim，你還有任何最後的……

No, no. Thank you so much for your interest as always, and we'll be back to talk to you at the end of the year and try to give you a little flavor for what the future looks like. Thank you so much.

沒有，沒有。一如既往，非常感謝各位的關注；我們會在年底再回來與各位交流，並試著讓大家稍微了解一下未來的樣貌。非常感謝。

All right, thanks, everyone.

好的，謝謝各位。

This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。您可以掛斷電話線。