CSX Corporation (CSX) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CSX Corporation Fourth Quarter 2017 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生們，下午好，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2017 年第四季財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。(接線員指示)

For opening remarks and introduction, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Kevin Boone, Chief Investor Relations Officer for CSX Corporation. Thank you, sir. Please begin.

接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話交給 CSX Corporation 投資人關係長 Kevin Boone 先生。謝謝您，先生。請開始。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me on today's call is Jim Foote, Chief Executive Officer; Ed Harris, Executive Vice President of Operations; and Frank Lonegro, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，各位下午好。今天與我一同參與電話會議的有：執行長 Jim Foote；營運執行副總裁 Ed Harris；以及財務長 Frank Lonegro。

On Slide 2 is our forward-looking disclosure, followed by our non-GAAP disclosure on Slide 3. I would also like to highlight our upcoming investor conference scheduled for March 1 in New York. Registration information can be found on the CSX Investor Relations page.

投影片第 2 頁為我們的前瞻性聲明揭露，接著投影片第 3 頁為非 GAAP 揭露。我也想特別提醒各位，我們下一場投資人會議預定於 3 月 1 日在紐約舉行。報名資訊可在 CSX 投資人關係頁面查詢。

With that, it is a pleasure to introduce our President and Chief Executive Officer, Jim Foote.

接下來，很榮幸介紹我們的總裁兼執行長 Jim Foote。

Thank you very much, Kevin. It's great to have the opportunity to speak with you again today.

非常感謝你，Kevin。很高興今天能再次有機會與各位對話。

Before we get started on going through the presentation, I'd like to thank all of you out there who sent their condolences concerning Hunter's passing. Hunter was a true legend, and CSX would not be in the position it is today without the tremendous changes that he was able to make during his time here. I am committed to seeing his vision through and making CSX the best railroad in North America.

在開始簡報之前，我想感謝各位對 Hunter 逝世所致的慰問。Hunter 是真正的傳奇人物；若沒有他在任期間所推動的重大變革，CSX 不會有今天的地位。我承諾將延續他的願景，讓 CSX 成為北美最好的鐵路公司。

Before I get started, let me say again that, as I said on the conference call on the morning of December 15 when I was named acting President and CEO, I am committed to follow through on implementing the scheduled railroad business model at CSX.

在我開始之前，我再重申一次：正如我在 12 月 15 日早上、我被任命為代理總裁兼執行長的電話會議中所說，我承諾在 CSX 落實「定期化鐵路」（scheduled railroad）的營運模式。

After spending my entire career in the railroad business, I've experienced firsthand the benefits that are realized by customers and shareholders can change into the scheduled railroad way of doing business. To reinforce my commitment to driving this change, I took steps quickly to emphasize this message.

我整個職涯都在鐵路產業，親身體驗到採用定期化鐵路的作業方式，能為客戶與股東帶來的效益。為了強化我推動這項變革的決心，我迅速採取行動來傳達這個訊息。

Just a few hours after assuming the position and my first official act as CEO, I advised the head of engineering to bulldoze one of the hump yards that Hunter had closed. Atlanta hump yard today is flat. There is no turning back.

就在我接任職務後幾個小時、也是我以執行長身分的第一項正式行動，我指示工程部門主管把 Hunter 關閉的一座駝峰調車場推平。亞特蘭大駝峰調車場如今已成為平面調車場。沒有回頭路。

I then made changes to the sales and marketing structure to simplify the organization by collapsing the leadership group into 3 business units and aligning certain functions into other departments. I made changes in the operating department to bring clarity to the key responsibilities.

接著我也調整了銷售與行銷架構，將領導團隊整併為 3 個事業單位，並把部分職能併入其他部門，以簡化組織。我也在營運部門做出調整，使關鍵職責更清晰。

The operating department, both at the staff and field levels, obviously, has the most responsibility to execute and deliver the efficiencies and service improvements from scheduled railroading. But we now have more accountability within the operating department to assure the hard work to implement scheduled railroading gets to the bottom line. And the biggest change is to bring in Ed Harris to help me.

營運部門無論在幕僚或現場層級，顯然都肩負著執行並交付定期化鐵路所帶來效率與服務改善的最大責任。但現在我們在營運部門內建立了更高的問責機制，以確保推動定期化鐵路的辛勤成果能反映到最終損益。而最大的改變，是引進 Ed Harris 來協助我。

Ed is a rock-solid railroad operations executive with over 44 years of experience. He and I were part of the leadership team that transformed Canadian National. He worked for years with Hunter at both Illinois Central and CN, developing and implementing scheduled railroading. He understands what we are trying to accomplish here at CSX, and I trust, with Ed's help, we can deliver on the plan.

Ed 是一位非常穩健的鐵路營運高階主管，擁有超過 44 年的經驗。他和我曾是將 Canadian National 轉型的領導團隊成員。他多年來在 Illinois Central 與 CN 都與 Hunter 共事，發展並落實定期化鐵路。他了解我們在 CSX 想要達成的目標；我相信在 Ed 的協助下，我們能夠兌現這項計畫。

We have a ton of opportunity to harvest. We are aggressively developing more trip plans that are the essence to operating the railroad to schedule, plans that set specific route and time parameters that dictate how to move our customers' products across the network but also tell us when we don't, which highlights inefficiencies. We are on the right path to making CSX the best run railroad in North America.

我們有大量可收割的機會。我們正積極制定更多「行程計畫」（trip plans），這是按時刻表營運鐵路的核心；這些計畫設定明確的路線與時間參數，規範如何在網路中運送客戶產品，同時也能讓我們看見何時未能達成，從而凸顯效率不彰之處。我們正走在正確的道路上，讓 CSX 成為北美營運最出色的鐵路公司。

I'd like to go into the presentation now and start with Slide 4 (sic -- slide 5), the fourth quarter highlights. We continued -- well, we delivered solid results in the fourth quarter. We continued to show sequential improvement on key service metrics, including train velocity and terminal dwell.

我現在進入簡報內容，先從投影片第 4 頁（口誤——第 5 頁）的第四季重點開始。我們在第四季持續——嗯，我們在第四季交出穩健的成果。在列車速度與場站停留時間等關鍵服務指標上，我們持續展現逐季改善。

Here are the highlights. Adjusted revenue on a 13-week basis was roughly flat year-over-year, with volume down 2%. Our adjusted operating ratio came in at 64.8%, a 220 basis point improvement versus the fourth quarter 2016. Earnings per share were up 31% to $0.64.

以下是重點。以 13 週基礎計算的調整後營收，年對年大致持平，運量下降 2%。我們的調整後營業比率為 64.8%，較 2016 年第四季改善 220 個基點。每股盈餘成長 31% 至 0.64 美元。

Moving on to the next page, where we can take a look -- quick look at the revenue in the fourth quarter. Again, in the quarter, revenue was flat, a 2% decline in volume. This reflects higher prices, which were offset somewhat by negative mix.

接著看下一頁，我們可以快速看一下第四季的營收。同樣地，本季營收持平，運量下滑 2%。這反映了較高的價格，但部分被不利的產品組合所抵銷。

A few comments on the larger commodity groups. In chemicals, revenue growth was up 3% despite lower industrial waste moves during -- due to a large project, which concluded earlier in 2017 but was still active in the fourth quarter of 2016. Crude-by-rail moves were also down in the period.

針對較大的商品類別補充幾點。在化學品方面，儘管因一項大型專案結束而使工業廢棄物運輸量下降——該專案於 2017 年較早時結束，但在 2016 年第四季仍在進行——營收仍成長 3%。本期鐵路運輸原油（crude-by-rail）量也下降。

Auto was down 10%, about in line with the 7% lower U.S. and 15% lower Canadian vehicle production rate.

汽車業務下滑 10%，大致符合美國車輛產量下降 7% 與加拿大車輛產量下降 15% 的趨勢。

Ag and food products revenues were down 5%, driven by lower export grain, which was down about 50%; feed ingredients, which were down, which was again offset somewhat by increases in feed grains.

農產品與食品營收下滑 5%，主要受出口穀物減少所致，出口穀物約下降 50%；飼料原料也下滑，但部分被飼料穀物增加所抵銷。

Coal revenues were up 4%. Export coal volumes finished out a strong year, up 37% for the quarter. Shipments to our northern utilities were down substantially, but shipments to southern utilities were up 5%.

煤炭營收成長 4%。出口煤運量延續強勁表現，本季成長 37%。對北部公用事業的出貨大幅下降，但對南部公用事業的出貨成長 5%。

Intermodal revenues grew 4%. International volumes increased as eastern port volumes continue to grow. Our domestic business was down. A business rationalization program shed about 7% of total intermodal volumes, which were offset somewhat by strong peak season volumes.

聯運（Intermodal）營收成長 4%。隨著東岸港口運量持續成長，國際運量增加。我們的國內業務下滑。一項業務合理化計畫削減了約 7% 的聯運總運量，但部分被旺季強勁運量所抵銷。

Again, moving to Slide 7, take a quick look at our operating highlights. Again, as I mentioned previously, train velocity and dwell continue to see sequential improvement. Compared to the fourth quarter last year, train velocity was 15% better, and dwell was 10% better.

同樣地，來到投影片第 7 頁，快速看一下我們的營運重點。如我先前提到的，列車速度與停留時間持續逐季改善。與去年第四季相比，列車速度提升 15%，停留時間改善 10%。

While there remains to be a tremendous amount of opportunity ahead of us, I'm encouraged by our progress. Train length continues to be a focus by our team, and I would expect future improvement there. Finally, total employees continued to fall this quarter as we improved efficiency, which requires fewer assets.

雖然前方仍有大量機會，但我對我們的進展感到鼓舞。列車編組長度仍是團隊的重點，我預期未來在這方面還會持續改善。最後，隨著我們提升效率、所需資產減少，本季員工總數持續下降。

Now I'll turn it over to Frank.

現在我把電話交給 Frank。

Thanks, Jim, and good morning -- excuse me, good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝你，Jim，各位早安——抱歉，各位下午好。

Turning to Slide 9, we are encouraged by the fourth quarter's financial performance. The service and efficiency improvements Jim just laid out on the previous slide helped generate momentum on the financial side as well. Reported revenue declined 6% but was flat on a comparable 13-week basis, as pricing gains across all markets and higher fuel recoveries were offset by the impact of the lower volume and negative mix.

接著看投影片第 9 頁，我們對第四季的財務表現感到振奮。Jim 在前一頁所說的服務與效率改善，也帶動了財務面的動能。公告營收下滑 6%，但以可比的 13 週基礎計算則持平；各市場的定價提升與較高的燃油回收，抵銷了運量下降與不利組合的影響。

Total expenses were 14% lower in the quarter, driven primarily by significant efficiency gains, the benefit of tax reform on the company's equity affiliates and cycling $116 million of costs by the last year's extra fiscal week. While I don't plan to call out the impact of the extra week as I walk through the expense line items, we have provided that level of detail in our quarterly financial report.

本季總費用下降 14%，主要由顯著的效率提升所帶動，另包括稅改對公司權益法投資關聯企業的效益，以及因去年多出一個會計週期而使 1.16 億美元成本形成的比較基期效應。雖然我在逐項說明費用科目時不打算特別點出多出一週的影響，但我們已在季度財務報告中提供該層級的明細。

Labor and fringe savings were driven by a 12% reduction in average headcount. Incentive compensation was also lower, driven in part by the reversal of $28 million in former CEO stock option expense accrued in quarters 1 through 3.

勞務與附加福利節省主要來自平均員工人數下降12%。獎勵性薪酬也較低，部分原因是沖回先前於第1至第3季計提的前任執行長股票選擇權費用2,800萬美元。

MS&O expense increased by 5%. As a reminder, though, fourth quarter 2016 MS&O benefited from a $115 million real estate gain, which was partly offset by real estate gains in this year's fourth quarter as well as $70 million of efficiency savings.

MS&O費用增加5%。提醒一下，2016年第四季MS&O受惠於1.15億美元的不動產處分利益，但今年第四季亦有不動產處分利益以及7,000萬美元的效率節省，部分抵銷了該影響。

Fuel expense was up primarily due to the 23% increase in the per-gallon price despite continued gains in fuel efficiency. The $29 million restructuring charge in the quarter relates to the departures of certain executives in early 2017 and those more recently.

燃料費用上升主要是因為每加侖價格上漲23%，儘管燃油效率仍持續改善。本季2,900萬美元的重整費用與2017年初及近期部分高階主管離職相關。

Equity earnings of affiliates is a new line item on the income statement, necessitated by the impact of tax reform on nonconsolidated subsidiaries in the quarter. As we have done at the CSX-consolidated level, our subsidiaries also revalued their deferred tax liabilities to reflect the new federal rate.

關聯企業權益法損益是損益表上的新項目，係因本季稅改對未合併子公司造成影響而必須新增。如同我們在CSX合併層級所做的，我們的子公司也重新衡量其遞延所得稅負債，以反映新的聯邦稅率。

Given the size of the impact this quarter, SEC rules require us to add this line item to the P&L. Moving forward, this item should be an expense credit of about $10 million to $15 million per quarter. These contra expenses were previously part of MS&O and rent.

鑑於本季影響金額之大，依SEC規定我們必須在損益表中新增此項目。展望未來，該項目每季應為約1,000萬至1,500萬美元的費用抵減（貸項）。這些抵減費用先前包含在MS&O與租金之中。

Looking below the operating income line, 2016 results were impacted by a debt refinancing, which lowered ongoing interest expense and were accompanied by a onetime $115 million debt repurchase charge.

再往下看營業利益以下的項目，2016年的結果受到債務再融資影響，降低了持續性的利息費用，同時伴隨一次性1.15億美元的債務回購費用。

Shifting to the income tax line, in 2017, we received a $3.5 billion noncash benefit due to the revaluation of our deferred tax liability. Adjusting for this and for the restructuring charge, our effective tax rate for the quarter was approximately 34%. This is lower than usual due to the previously mentioned stock option expense reversal and multiple state tax items and favorably impacted EPS collectively by about $0.03.

轉到所得稅項目，2017年我們因重新衡量遞延所得稅負債而取得35億美元的非現金利益。剔除此項及重整費用後，本季有效稅率約為34%。此稅率低於通常水準，係因前述股票選擇權費用沖回及多項州稅項目所致，合計對每股盈餘（EPS）有利影響約0.03美元。

The deferred tax revaluation and the restructuring charges are significant items that we believe are not indicative of CSX's future financial trends. Therefore, on Slide 10, and in our quarterly financial report, we provide adjusted non-GAAP measures for the fourth quarter and full year.

遞延所得稅重新衡量與重整費用屬重大項目，我們認為其不代表CSX未來的財務趨勢。因此，在第10頁投影片以及我們的季度財務報告中，我們提供第四季與全年調整後的非GAAP衡量指標。

Our fourth quarter adjusted operating ratio was 64.8%, and adjusted EPS grew by 31% to $0.64 per share. For the full year, we achieved a 66.3% adjusted operating ratio, an improvement of 310 basis points from 2016. The improved operating and financial performance and the benefit of share repurchases drove full year adjusted EPS to $2.30, a 27% increase over last year's reported EPS.

我們第四季調整後營業比率為64.8%，調整後EPS成長31%至每股0.64美元。全年方面，我們達成66.3%的調整後營業比率，較2016年改善310個基點。營運與財務表現改善，加上庫藏股回購的效益，帶動全年調整後EPS達2.30美元，較去年報告EPS成長27%。

Looking at Slide 11, adjusting for the restructuring charge, CSX generated $1.7 billion of free cash flow before dividends, doubling the free cash flow performance of 2016. Improved cash generation was driven by a $665 million reduction in capital expenditures as well as solid top line gains and significant operating efficiency savings.

看第11頁投影片，若調整重整費用，CSX在股利發放前創造17億美元自由現金流，為2016年自由現金流表現的兩倍。現金創造能力提升主要來自資本支出減少6.65億美元，以及營收穩健成長與顯著的營運效率節省。

2017's initial capital investment plan is $2.2 billion. With Hunter's guidance during the year, we reduced that to $2.1 billion and ultimately finished closer to $2 billion for the year, a 25% decrease year-over-year. Continuing with this capital efficiency theme, Jim will provide his thoughts on 2018 capital investment in a few moments.

2017年初的資本投資計畫為22億美元。在Hunter於年度期間的指導下，我們將其下調至21億美元，最終全年接近20億美元，年減25%。延續資本效率的主題，稍後Jim將分享他對2018年資本投資的看法。

Our strong free cash flow performance enabled us to reward our shareholders with a $0.02 per share dividend increase earlier this year and nearly $2 billion of share repurchases. In total, we returned nearly $2.7 billion to our shareholders in 2017, an increase of over $900 million compared to 2016.

我們強勁的自由現金流表現，使我們得以在今年稍早將股利每股提高0.02美元，並回購近20億美元的股票。合計而言，2017年我們回饋股東近27億美元，較2016年增加超過9億美元。

Wrapping up on Slide 12, a strong finish to the year enabled us to meet or exceed all of the financial targets we reaffirmed on last quarter's earnings call. Delivering on our commitments will be a hallmark of this team and this company. In addition to growing adjusted EPS by 27%, doubling free cash flow to $1.7 billion and driving the adjusted operating ratio down to 66.3%, our successful transition to Precision Scheduled Railroading helped the company generate record efficiency savings of $460 million in 2017.

在第12頁投影片作結，年末的強勁收官使我們達成或超越上季法說會中重申的所有財務目標。兌現承諾將是這個團隊與這家公司的一大特色。除調整後EPS成長27%、自由現金流倍增至17億美元、並將調整後營業比率降至66.3%之外，我們成功轉型至精準排程鐵路（Precision Scheduled Railroading），也協助公司在2017年創造創紀錄的4.6億美元效率節省。

With 2017 now in the books, I'm delighted to turn the presentation back to Jim to highlight our initial expectations for 2018.

2017年已告一段落，我很高興把簡報交回給Jim，請他說明我們對2018年的初步預期。

Thanks, Frank. For 2018, on the concluding slide here, we expect revenue in 2018 to be up slightly. With merchandising intermodal services offerings much better than last year, I expect to see more favorable results in the second half of the year.

謝謝你，Frank。關於2018年，在這裡的結尾投影片上，我們預期2018年營收將小幅成長。由於商品化的聯運服務方案比去年好得多，我預期下半年會看到更有利的結果。

In the first half of the year, we will face tough comparisons on export coal rates, which are linked to the price of the commodity. However, we see the coal market continuing to remain healthy for a -- from a volume perspective. As we continue to prove -- improve our service, I believe we will begin to see increasing new opportunities as we look beyond 2018.

上半年我們將面臨出口煤運價的嚴峻比較基期，因其與商品價格連動。然而，從運量角度來看，我們認為煤炭市場將持續保持健康。隨著我們持續證明並改善服務，我相信當我們把目光放到2018年之後，將開始看到更多新的機會。

I continue to expect improvement from a cost perspective. I reiterate, we will continue to implement the scheduled railroading model, and I see no reason to believe we can't deliver the results that Hunter thought we could. We should see a solid step-down in the operating ratio every year for the next 3 years.

從成本角度來看，我仍預期會持續改善。我再次強調，我們將持續推動排程式鐵路營運模式，我沒有理由認為我們無法交出Hunter認為我們能達成的成果。未來3年，我們每年都應該能看到營業比率明顯下滑。

I expect CapEx to be $1.6 billion, down significantly from 2017. This is bang-on where Hunter said we should be. I am committed to investing and maintaining a safe and reliable railroad. As we become more efficient, we are able to achieve more with each dollar we spend.

我預期資本支出（CapEx）為16億美元，較2017年大幅下降。這正好符合Hunter所說我們應達到的水準。我致力於投資並維持一條安全且可靠的鐵路。隨著效率提升，我們能用每一美元支出達成更多成果。

As Kevin said, we have scheduled our Investor Day for March 1. We will provide additional details in our financial outlook at that time. I hope all of you can attend and look forward to meeting with you and discussing our plans in much greater detail at that time.

如Kevin所說，我們已將投資人日安排在3月1日，屆時我們將在財務展望中提供更多細節。希望各位都能出席，也期待屆時與各位見面，並更深入地討論我們的計畫。

With that, I'll hand it back to Kevin, and we can have question-and-answers.

接下來我把時間交回給Kevin，我們可以開始問答。

Thank you, Jim. (Operator Instructions) Operator, we'll now take questions.

謝謝你，Jim。（接線員指示）接線員，我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Tom Wadewitz of UBS.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自UBS的Tom Wadewitz。

I had some questions for Ed. Is Ed on the call today, Ed Harris, or...

我有一些問題想問Ed。Ed今天有在線上嗎？Ed Harris，還是……

Yes, I am, Tom.

是的，Tom，我在。

Yes, okay. Okay, great. Good to hear your voice, Ed, and look forward to, I guess, hearing from you as part of the team. I know you haven't been there long, so it's probably tough to have a strong read on things, but I just wanted to hear your thoughts on what you think is important.

是的，好。好，太好了。很高興聽到你的聲音，Ed，也期待我想是作為團隊的一員能聽到你的分享。我知道你到任不久，所以可能很難對事情有很強的掌握，但我只是想聽聽你認為哪些事情是重要的。

There were big changes in the network last year. The metrics seem to be very good at the present time. But what do you think are the most important things for you and the team to focus on on the operating side to continue that momentum and to see the further improvement in financial results?

去年網路方面有很大的變化。目前看起來各項指標都非常好。但你認為在營運面上，你和團隊最需要聚焦哪些最重要的事情，才能延續這股動能，並進一步改善財務結果？

Well, Tom, I think it's obvious what Jim said. We're going to continue to follow Hunter's plan, pursuing the scheduled railroad environment. That, in turn, will lead to less train starts, more engines in storage, less equipment and a more fluid network. And the table has been set.

嗯，Tom，我想 Jim 說的很明顯。我們將繼續遵循 Hunter 的計畫，推進既定的鐵路營運環境。而這反過來將帶來更少的列車開行、更多機車入庫、較少的設備，以及更順暢的網路。而且舞台已經搭好。

I read in one of Jim's earlier reports that the heavy lifting has been done, and I really agree that it has been done. I've been very impressed with the staff here at CSX. The field forces, I've had a chance to meet all my direct reports, and now, I am spending time with their staffs and just getting a handle on the railroad.

我在 Jim 先前的一份報告中讀到，最艱鉅的工作已經完成了，我也非常同意確實已經完成。我對 CSX 這裡的團隊印象非常深刻。現場團隊方面，我已經有機會見到我所有的直屬主管，而現在我也在花時間與他們的團隊交流，並逐步掌握這條鐵路的運作。

And I'll start hitting the field here probably within the next 2 weeks and follow through on the plan. But the plan is intact as it stands right now, but I think we'll dig a lot deeper than where we're at today.

我大概會在接下來 2 週內開始到現場走訪，並依計畫推進。不過就目前而言，計畫仍然完整不變，但我認為我們會比今天所處的階段挖得更深。

Okay, that's great. And Jim, if I can ask you to give your thoughts on just what the top priorities for execution in 2018 would be for you as well.

好的，太好了。Jim，如果可以的話，也請你談談你認為 2018 年執行面最優先的事項會是什麼。

Ed and I are in complete alignment. We both think alike, and we both think it's de-clutter. This is the way we learned how we run the railroad, so we're going to do the same things: train length, velocity, terminal dwell, continue to focus on driving down our fuel expenditure and running our trains with fewer locomotives, car miles per car day.

Ed 和我完全一致。我們想法相同，我們都認為要「去雜化」（de-clutter）。這就是我們學到的鐵路營運方式，所以我們會做同樣的事情：列車長度、速度、場站停留時間（terminal dwell）、持續聚焦降低燃料支出、用更少的機車來運行列車、以及每車日的車輛里程（car miles per car day）。

We just -- we live and eat and breathe these metrics, and that's how you deliver the financial performance that we did at CN and Hunter did at CP. So it might sound boring, Tom, but it's the same old, same old. It's exactly what you've heard all along, and we're well on the way to accomplishing that.

我們就是——生活、吃飯、呼吸都圍繞著這些指標，這也是你如何交出我們在 CN 所做到的財務表現，以及 Hunter 在 CP 所做到的表現。所以這聽起來可能很無聊，Tom，但就是老一套、老一套。這正是你一路以來聽到的內容，而我們也正朝著完成它大步前進。

The next question will come from Brian Ossenbeck of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Brian Ossenbeck。

So Jim, I just wanted to start where you ended up. If you can just give a little bit more framework around the 2018 financial outlook knowing you're going to discuss a lot more for the long term at the coming Investor Day.

Jim，我想先從你剛才的結尾談起。在你們將於即將到來的投資人日更深入討論長期議題的前提下，你能否就 2018 年的財務展望再提供一些架構性的說明？

But if you can just break out what you think will be the major components of the revenue up slightly. You're going to continue to, it sounds like, churn some intermodal volumes. Are you looking for, perhaps, some volume headwinds?

另外，如果你能拆解一下你認為營收小幅成長的主要構成會是什麼。聽起來你們會持續汰換（churn）部分聯運（intermodal）量。你們是否預期可能會有一些量的逆風？

And then just more specifically, on the OR guidance, looking for another solid step-down this year and every year for the next several years. If you can give us a little bit more detail on that, what that looks like, if it's a similar year to this year or is it going to kind of continue but at a slower rate from 2017?

然後更具體一點，關於營運比率（OR）的指引，你們希望今年再有一次穩健的下修，並且未來幾年每年都下修。你能否提供更多細節，這會長什麼樣子？會像今年一樣，還是會延續但相較 2017 年放慢速度？

Well, Kevin will shoot me if I give away all of the details that he's got planned for New York. But just again, a little more flavor on what I said in my concluding slide.

如果我把 Kevin 為紐約準備的所有細節都講出來，他會把我「打死」。不過我再補充一點我在結語投影片中提到的內容。

It is not -- the top line growth of up slightly is kind of similar to what we went through at CN and CP when you implement the -- a new operating plan and you implement it as quickly and aggressively as Hunter did here. Clearly there was disruption in the network and some business clearly went away.

營收端小幅成長，這其實與我們在 CN 和 CP 的經驗相似：當你導入新的營運計畫，並像 Hunter 在這裡一樣快速且強勢地推行時。很明顯，網路出現了擾動，有些業務也確實流失了。

Then there was the intentional [demarketing] of the -- 7% of the intermodal traffic when we deviated and pivoted away from the hub-and-spoke system and closed the Northwest Ohio facility. I do not envision those kinds of disruptive changes occurring in the future in 2018. And so our goal right now on the merchandise side of the business is to earn back the trust of our customers and to begin to grow that business.

接著，當我們偏離並轉向不再採用樞紐—輻射（hub-and-spoke）系統、並關閉俄亥俄州西北部設施時，我們也有意地「去行銷」（[demarketing]）了約 7% 的聯運貨量。我不預期 2018 年未來還會出現這類具破壞性的變動。因此，我們目前在一般貨運（merchandise）業務上的目標，是重新贏回客戶的信任，並開始讓該業務成長。

And so because it was only a few short months ago, we were in gridlock and fighting with the customers and the STB. It would be naive of me to assume that all that business is going to come back to us in the second week of February. So that's why I said, later in the year, I think we'll begin to have more success in growing our merchandise business segment by being cautious in our forecast.

而且就在幾個月前，我們還陷在嚴重壅塞（gridlock）中，並與客戶及 STB（美國地面運輸委員會）周旋。如果我以為所有業務都會在 2 月第二週就回到我們這裡，那就太天真了。所以我才說，到了今年稍晚，我認為我們會在一般貨運業務板塊的成長上更有斬獲；而在預測上保持審慎。

Intermodal side of the house, again, as our service metrics improve, I expect to see that come back. We were successful in offsetting that 7% decline with a very strong fourth quarter, especially the service that we delivered during peak season.

聯運這一塊，同樣地，隨著我們的服務指標改善，我預期會看到它回來。我們在第四季表現很強，成功以非常強勁的第四季抵銷了那 7% 的下滑，尤其是在旺季期間我們交付的服務水準。

So I would hope that intermodal will continue to do well. And I personally have been meeting with a lot of the major intermodal customers and confident that we can see some top line growth. The kind of oddball in the equation here is what's going to happen with coal. Coal is very strong here for us.

所以我希望聯運能持續表現良好。而我個人也一直在與許多主要聯運客戶會面，並有信心我們能看到一些營收端的成長。這裡方程式中比較「特例」的變數，是煤炭會怎麼走。煤炭對我們而言目前非常強勁。

The outlook for export met and steam coal right now continues to be favorable despite everyone predicting earlier that it was not going to be. So the question is, how long is that going to hang in there. And the challenges that we have with our domestic steam coal franchise, especially the northern utilities where they're being displaced by natural gas, give us concern there.

目前出口冶金煤（export met）與動力煤（steam coal）的展望仍然偏正面，儘管先前大家都預測不會如此。所以問題是，這樣的態勢能維持多久。而我們在國內動力煤業務上面臨的挑戰——尤其是北方公用事業客戶，因為被天然氣取代——也讓我們對那一塊感到憂心。

So again, we'll get into all of that top line in much greater detail with the business unit leaders at our investor conference. So there's a little flavor there. On the operating side, as I said, I see no reason, and Ed agrees with me, as he said, I see no reason that we cannot drive our cost structure lower and improve the efficiencies in the network, in line with what Hunter envisioned.

所以，我們會在投資人會議上，與各事業單位主管更深入地拆解營收端的所有細節。以上先提供一些風味（flavor）。在營運端，如我所說，我看不出有任何理由——而 Ed 也同意——我們不能依照 Hunter 的構想，進一步降低成本結構並提升網路效率。

And as I said, again, I see step-downs. I see step-downs in that operating ratio over the next 3 years. The details in which -- how we get there from a train operating standpoint, from an engineering standpoint, from a mechanical standpoint, the timing of those in a little more greater -- in much greater detail with more flavor, we'll roll out again, so Kevin won't shoot me if I just blurted out the plan right now.

而且我也再次強調，我看到營運比率會逐步下修。我看到未來 3 年營運比率會逐步下修。至於我們如何從列車運行、工務（engineering）、機務（mechanical）的角度達成，以及其時間點等細節——我們會在之後以更多細節與更多「風味」再對外說明，這樣 Kevin 才不會因為我現在就把計畫脫口而出而「打死」我。

Really quick one for Frank. If you could just tell us where you expect cash taxes to go relative to last year and then versus the 25% effective rate, I would appreciate it.

我有一個很快的問題想問 Frank。你能否說明一下，你預期現金稅（cash taxes）相較去年會怎麼走，以及相較 25% 的有效稅率會如何？謝謝。

Okay, thanks, Brian. The effective rate obviously in Jim's prepared remarks, remember, obviously, as you step down into the cash tax rate from there, you're going to have the, essentially, the equivalent of 100% bonus depreciation. And then you've got your state combination of cash and deferred.

好的，謝謝你，Brian。有效稅率在 Jim 的事先準備講稿裡已經提到；請記得，當你從有效稅率往下推到現金稅率時，基本上會有相當於 100% 的加速折舊（bonus depreciation）。然後還有各州稅的組合，包含現金與遞延的部分。

I think if you implied the same level of split that you saw previously on the lower base, you'll get to the right answer. It's going to fluctuate as it always does quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year, but that will give you a good place to start.

我認為如果你假設在較低的基礎上，仍維持你先前看到的相同拆分比例，你就會得到正確答案。它會像以往一樣在季度之間、年度之間波動，但這會給你一個很好的起點。

Our next question comes from Allison Landry of Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）的 Allison Landry。

Jim, I was hoping I could ask a follow-up question on intermodal. And given that you are essentially awarded the credit for building this CN intermodal franchise as we know it today, do you see anything at CSX -- understanding the fact that it's at a different spot than where CN was years ago. Are there any opportunities to build out CSX's franchise in a similar way? Or do you plan to take it in a different direction altogether?

Jim，我想就聯運追問一個問題。鑑於大家基本上都把打造我們今天所熟知的 CN 聯運版圖的功勞歸於你——理解 CSX 所處的位置與 CN 多年前不同——你是否在 CSX 看到任何以類似方式擴建其版圖的機會？CSX 的版圖是否有機會以相似方式擴張？還是你打算採取完全不同的方向？

Well, there's a lot more people in New York and Pennsylvania than there are in Saskatchewan, so I think we have an opportunity to move a lot more intermodal freight across the network.

嗯，紐約和賓夕法尼亞的人口遠比薩斯喀徹溫多，所以我認為我們有機會在整個網路上移動更多的聯運貨運量。

I see -- just like we see in the rest of the business, I see a lot of opportunity in terms of changing business processes, working at improving terminal fluidity, the same steps that we took at CN to improve the quality of the network and then the quality of the revenue stream associated with that.

我看到——就像我們在其他業務中看到的一樣——我看到在改變業務流程、致力於提升場站周轉順暢度方面有很多機會；也就是我們在 CN 採取的同樣步驟，用以提升網路品質，進而提升與之相關的營收品質。

I also see, somewhat uniquely, an opportunity here to really take a hard look at the import, international traffic that's coming in on the East Coast and begin to determine ways in which we can market that business more effectively on east-to-west moves and be more competitive there. And I believe my experience in growing the traffic flows on the CN out of Vancouver, as well as the development at Prince Rupert, will give me a little bit more insight into where to take the business.

我也看到一個相對獨特的機會：真正深入檢視從東岸進來的進口、國際貨流，並開始找出我們可以如何更有效地行銷這些業務、在東向西的運輸上做得更好、並在那裡更具競爭力。我相信我在 CN 擴大自溫哥華出發的貨流，以及在魯珀特王子港的開發經驗，會讓我對該把業務帶往何處有更多洞見。

But first and foremost, what we did at CN when we rolled out intermodal excellence and created an unbelievably sought-after service in Canada, that's our first focus, and I think we're making great progress in delivering on that.

但最重要的是，我們在 CN 推出「聯運卓越」並在加拿大打造出極度搶手的服務時所做的那些事，這是我們的首要重點；我認為我們在交付這些目標方面正取得很大進展。

Okay, great. And then, I apologize if I missed this, but did you guys provide the core pricing figure for the quarter?

好的，很棒。另外，如果我漏聽了先跟你們道歉，但你們有提供本季的核心定價數字嗎？

Not in the specifics. What I said was that on a network basis, clearly, our volume was down 2%. Our revenues were flat. We achieved greater than that 2% differential in price, and it was offset to a degree by mix.

沒有提供到那麼細。我說的是，以整體網路來看，很明顯我們的運量下降了 2%。我們的營收持平。我們在價格上達成了高於那 2% 的差額，而在某種程度上被產品組合（mix）所抵銷。

Okay. So will you not be providing the similar -- like the same disclosure that you guys previously did?

了解。所以你們不會提供類似——像你們之前那樣的揭露嗎？

No, I think we're going to be providing disclosure the same way I used to do it at CN. And that's kind of how we -- that's the guidance level that we're comfortable with.

不，我想我們會用我以前在 CN 的方式來做揭露。這大概就是我們——我們覺得舒適的指引揭露層級。

Our next question comes from Scott Group of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

Just a couple of follow-ups on the 2018 earnings framework. So Jim, can you just clarify -- I mean, I think fuel surcharge is probably a 2-, maybe a 3-point help to revenue this year. Are you including that in your commentary about revenue up slightly? Or are you sort of talking ex fuel? And then, maybe, Jim or Ed, can you give some sort of directional color on headcount for either the first quarter or for the year?

關於 2018 年獲利架構有幾個追問。Jim，你能否澄清一下——我的意思是，我認為燃油附加費今年大概會對營收有 2 個點、也許 3 個點的助益。你在談到營收小幅上升時，有把這個算進去嗎？還是你是在談不含燃油（ex fuel）？另外，也許 Jim 或 Ed，你們能否就第一季或全年的人力編制（headcount）給一些方向性的說明？

Scott, it's Frank. Why don't I jump in, and then Jim and Ed can go. The revenue guidance that Jim gave is all-in revenue, total revenue, and then headcount revenue, commenting on it on a Q1 basis, although I believe it will be sequentially down every quarter, I mean, you're going to see a step-down pretty much every year, '17 to '18, '18 to '19, '19 to '20, et cetera. We'll have a lot more commentary on that when we get to the Investor Day. But clearly, that's part of the equation to get to some of the outcomes that we're aiming for.

Scott，我是 Frank。我先插話一下，然後 Jim 和 Ed 再補充。Jim 給的營收指引是全口徑營收、總營收；至於人力編制，我是以第一季的角度在評論，不過我相信它會每一季逐季下降——也就是說，你會看到幾乎每一年都有一個階梯式下滑，從 2017 到 2018、2018 到 2019、2019 到 2020，等等。等到投資人日（Investor Day）我們會有更多說明。但很明顯，這是我們要達成某些目標結果的方程式之一。

And Frank, do you...

那 Frank，你……

(inaudible) Go ahead. I'm sorry.

(聽不清楚) 你先說。抱歉。

No. Go ahead. Sorry to interrupt.

不。你先說。抱歉打斷。

On the headcount question, as we -- as is in our quarterly information, well, I should say what's in our quarterly information is our employee headcount. But in addition to the employee headcount reduction, we also had a significant reduction in the number of paid consultants that were here at CSX. And you add the consultants together with the employee number that's in there, we took out over 4,700 employees here and consultants last year.

關於人力編制的問題，正如——正如我們季報資訊裡所揭露的，嗯，我應該說，我們季報資訊裡揭露的是員工人數。但除了員工人數的減少之外，我們也大幅減少了在 CSX 這裡的付費顧問人數。把顧問加上季報裡的員工數字，去年我們在這裡共減少了超過 4,700 名員工與顧問。

Looking at next year, if you take a look at what the ongoing attrition rate is around the company of around, say, on remaining headcount, around 1,400 employees and then you add in again an aggressive look at getting the consultants, nonemployees out of here, you would think that we would come up with an annual number of around another 2,000 employee reduction in 2018.

看明年，如果你看看公司持續性的自然流失率（attrition rate），以剩餘人力來說大約是 1,400 名員工，然後再加上同樣積極地把顧問、非員工人員移出，你會認為我們在 2018 年全年大概還能再減少約 2,000 名員工。

That's our thoughts right now. We are grinding that -- again, grinding that plan right now and expect to have the details of that mix between employees, consultants, timing based upon attrition, et cetera, when we're in New York in 6 weeks.

這是我們目前的想法。我們正在把那個——再次強調，正在把那個計畫磨得更細，並預期在 6 週後我們到紐約時，會有員工與顧問的組合、依自然流失的時點安排等細節。

Very helpful. I just want to just make sure I understand, Frank, the way you answered my first question just about the surcharge revenue. So obviously, your revenue includes fuel surcharge revenue. Do you think I'm right that there's a 2- to 3-point potential help to revenue this year from that? So are you sort of saying that ex fuel, that core revenue is potentially down this year? Is that sort of what we should take from your guidance?

非常有幫助。我只是想確認我理解你回答我第一個問題、也就是燃油附加費營收的方式。所以很明顯，你們的營收包含燃油附加費營收。你覺得我說今年它可能對營收有 2 到 3 個點的助益，這個判斷對嗎？所以你是在說，不含燃油的話，今年核心營收可能是下降的？我們應該從你們的指引這樣解讀嗎？

Your 2% to 3% seems high to me. I mean, we're tracking the forward curve and obviously have a good handle on what fuel surcharge revenue would be on a year-over-year basis. But I mean, Jim's comment was obviously on a total revenue basis. When we get to the investor conference, we can give you more around CAGRs in terms of longer-term revenue growth, et cetera, but, no, Jim's commentary was all in.

你說的 2% 到 3% 對我來說偏高。我的意思是，我們在追蹤遠期曲線，當然也很清楚燃油附加費營收在年對年基礎上會是多少。但 Jim 的評論顯然是以總營收口徑來說的。等到投資人會議時，我們可以就長期營收成長等提供更多關於 CAGR 的資訊等等，但不，Jim 的評論是全口徑。

Yes, that number is high based upon our assumption of what we expect fuel price to be. As Frank said, it's all in. It includes -- fuel surcharge is included in that number, but we're nowhere near any kind of fuel price assumption increase that would drive that kind of increase in revenue.

是的，依我們對燃油價格的假設，那個數字偏高。如 Frank 所說，是全口徑。它包含——燃油附加費包含在那個數字裡，但我們的燃油價格假設上升幅度遠不到會推動那種營收增幅的程度。

Agreed.

同意。

Okay, fair enough. And then my just last question, I don't know if this is for Jim or for Frank. So as we think about the CapEx reduction and the earnings improvement and taxes, obviously much more free cash flow this year than we've ever seen. So how do you prioritize that free cash flow between buyback and dividend?

好，合理。然後我最後一個問題，我不確定是問 Jim 還是 Frank。當我們考量資本支出（CapEx）下降、獲利改善以及稅負時，很明顯今年的自由現金流會比我們以往看到的都多。那你們如何在庫藏股回購與股利之間，來排序這些自由現金流的優先順序？

And do you think just this new level of free cash flow lets you revisit leverage targets? I know we're not going to get those hard numbers today. We'll get them at the Analyst Day. But are we right in thinking that more free cash flow lets you think about leverage ratios differently?

以及你是否認為這個新的自由現金流水準，讓你們可以重新檢視槓桿目標？我知道我們今天不會拿到那些硬數字。我們會在分析師日拿到。但我們是否可以這樣理解：更多的自由現金流讓你們能以不同方式思考槓桿比率？

Well, it certainly gives you more coverage in terms of interest ratios and things like that. It's an input, obviously, that we're having with the board as we look at capital structure and leverage. Conversations with the rating agencies coming up as well to understand the relative importance of debt-to-EBITDA versus RCF-to-debt or FFO-to-debt, which clearly would be an input into that, as well.

嗯，這當然會在利息保障倍數之類的指標上提供更多覆蓋度。這顯然是一個輸入，我們在檢視資本結構與槓桿時，也正在與董事會討論。接下來也會與信評機構對話，以了解負債對 EBITDA 相較於 RCF 對負債或 FFO 對負債的相對重要性，而這些顯然也會成為其中的輸入。

But clearly, when you look at the ability that you have to distribute cash, there are only a handful of ways that you can utilize it. We've given you the CapEx number. I doubt we're going to be acquisitive in the near term on a small basis. So then you're really talking about shareholder distributions.

但很明顯，當你看你能夠分配現金的能力時，你能運用它的方式其實只有少數幾種。我們已經給了你資本支出的數字。我不認為我們短期內會進行任何收購，即便有也只會是小規模。所以接下來你談的就真的是對股東的分配。

And the question is, what's the relative proportionality between dividend and buybacks, but it's an active conversation right now. Obviously, Jim is a new CEO. He's got his perspectives. We'll be discussing those with the board and look forward to sharing those with you in March.

而問題是，股利與庫藏股回購之間的相對比例應該如何拿捏，但這目前仍在積極討論中。顯然，Jim 是新任執行長。他有他的觀點。我們會與董事會討論這些，並期待在三月與各位分享。

The next question comes from Chris Wetherbee of Citi Research.

下一個問題來自 Citi Research 的 Chris Wetherbee。

I wanted to come back some -- your comments on pricing, Jim, specifically you're discontinuing sort of the metric you've given us. But maybe you can help us with some comparability to the previous quarters how you saw pricing specifically in the fourth quarter.

我想回到你對定價的評論，Jim，特別是你們要停止提供我們一直以來看到的那種指標。但也許你可以協助我們，和前幾季做一些可比性對照，說明你們在第四季對定價的觀察，尤其是定價表現。

And maybe a little bit of sort of how you think about the outlook into 2018, particularly on the merchandise and intermodal side, where there is some comparability versus truck. We're seeing that market tight. I'm just trying to get a sense as you sort of think out in the fourth quarter then look out to 2018 with those revenue targets, how we should be thinking about sort of the price lever within that mix.

另外也想請你談談你如何看待 2018 年的展望，特別是在一般貨運（merchandise）與聯運（intermodal）方面，因為這部分與卡車運輸有一定的可比性。我們看到那個市場很吃緊。我只是想了解，當你回頭看第四季、再展望 2018 年並結合那些營收目標時，我們應該如何看待在那個組合中「價格槓桿」所扮演的角色。

I don't know what -- I have some idea what the guidance was given to you in the last -- in the third quarter in terms of price for merchandise. I believe that number was about a 2.2% increase...

我不確定——我大概知道你們上一次、也就是第三季給的指引中，對一般貨運的價格是怎麼說的。我相信那個數字大約是成長 2.2%……

Yes. Merchant intermodal was 2.2% in Q3. That's right.

是的。一般貨運與聯運在第三季是 2.2%。沒錯。

Yes. So our price in merchandise, again, in the fourth quarter, was higher than that. So we continue to trend upward, and trust me, we continue to focus on price, the proper mix of volume and price. But clearly, a focus on price.

是的。所以我們一般貨運的價格，在第四季同樣是高於那個數字。因此我們持續呈現上升趨勢；也請相信我，我們會持續專注在價格上，並在運量與價格之間取得適當的組合。但很明確地，我們會聚焦在價格。

And that's one of the things probably that I'm most proud of in my career was while the rates in the railroad industry and since the revenue per mile dropped every year after year after year, starting with deregulation in the '80s, it was what we did at the Canadian National that put the brakes on that continual decline in rates and started to move prices up.

而這大概也是我職涯中最引以為傲的一件事：在鐵路產業的運價、以及每英里營收在 1980 年代解除管制後一年又一年地下滑時，是我們在加拿大國家鐵路（Canadian National）所做的事情，踩住了那種持續下滑的煞車，並開始推動價格上升。

So I am a big advocate here of as we work so, so hard to improve the quality of the product that we have, to get the sales team focused on what we're selling as a service, not a commodity, that we go after as much of a price increase as we possibly can under the restrictions that our existing contracts might have in place.

所以我在這裡非常主張：當我們如此努力提升我們產品的品質，讓銷售團隊聚焦在我們賣的是「服務」而不是「商品」時，我們就應該在既有合約可能設下的限制之下，盡可能爭取最大的漲價幅度。

So in terms of -- again, in terms of guidance, other than for me to tell you what we've done -- I'm not going to get any more specific than that. And in terms of explaining on a quarter-by-quarter basis what our price was, I will tell you the overall top line breakdown in terms of volume and price to get to what the revenue stream is.

所以就——再次就指引而言，除了告訴你我們做了什麼之外——我不會再更具體了。至於逐季解釋我們的價格是多少，我會告訴你整體營收（top line）的拆解，也就是運量與價格的分解，來說明營收流是如何形成的。

Okay. Okay, that's helpful. I appreciate that context. A couple of weeks ago, a few weeks ago, there was a letter to the STB that, I think, kind of highlighted that from a service perspective, there's not going to be a lot of meaningful or really any meaningful changes kind of going forward. You're just going to execute kind of on the plan that stands right now.

好的。好的，這很有幫助。我很感謝這些背景說明。幾週前，有一封寫給 STB 的信，我想它某種程度上強調了：從服務的角度來看，未來不會有太多有意義的變化，甚至可能幾乎沒有任何有意義的變化。你們只是會依照目前既定的計畫去執行。

Essentially, that suggests that Hunter got through essentially everything he wanted to get through, and now it's kind of more of just executing on the plan as you move into 2018. I guess, if you could just maybe give us a little bit of color around that.

基本上，那暗示 Hunter 幾乎已經把他想做的事情都做完了，而接下來進入 2018 年就比較像是照著計畫執行。我想，如果你能就此提供一些補充說明就好了。

When you think about the various business, whether merchandise, intermodal or maybe coal, is there really anything else left to do from your perspective? And if so, kind of how much and maybe how that could kind of progress out understanding we're going to get more color on this in March. Just trying to get a sense of maybe that comment specifically.

當你看各個業務，不論是一般貨運、聯運，或是煤炭，從你的角度來看，真的還有什麼事情需要做嗎？如果有的話，大概還有多少，以及可能會如何推進——我知道我們會在三月得到更多細節。只是想更具體地理解那段評論。

Well, in terms of the order of magnitude, deciding on 1 day to shut down 8 major hump yards across your network is pretty dramatic and disruptive. And deciding to kind of blow up a long, thought-out strategy, hub-and-spoke intermodal network overnight again was pretty disruptive and dramatic.

嗯，就規模而言，決定在某一天關閉你們全網 8 座主要的驼峰編組場（hump yards），是相當戲劇性且具破壞性的。而決定一夜之間把一個長期深思熟慮的「樞紐—輻射」聯運網路策略推翻，同樣也非常具破壞性且戲劇性。

I do not see us having anything like that. Luckily -- and Ed and I have talked about that, luckily, we inherited the very hard work and difficult decisions that Hunter made for us earlier when he was here last year. I think we would have come to the same conclusion that those things needed to be done. I just don't think I would have decided that we were going to do it all in 1 day on a Tuesday.

我不認為我們還會有任何類似那樣的事情。幸運的是——Ed 和我也談過——幸運的是，我們承接了 Hunter 去年在這裡時，為我們所做的非常艱難的工作與困難的決策。我想我們也會得出同樣的結論：那些事情確實需要做。我只是覺得，我不會決定要在某個星期二的一天之內把它全部做完。

So we are the beneficiaries of that very, very difficult work that was done by him and the team here. That is not to say that what we have here is a walk in the park. We are going to continue to grind. Now comes the difficult part of getting these trains to continually -- to run at -- I mean, we're already hitting velocities now that are at or near record speed in the history of CSX.

所以我們是他以及這裡團隊所完成那段非常、非常艱難工作的受益者。但這並不表示我們現在的工作就很輕鬆。我們會持續努力推進。接下來才是困難的部分：讓這些列車持續——以——我的意思是，我們現在的運行速度已經達到或接近 CSX 歷史上的紀錄速度。

When I came here, I think you have to go back to the steam engine passenger days to kind of figure out when you had train velocities that were -- are what we're at today.

當我來到這裡時，我想你得回溯到蒸汽機客運的年代，才比較能找到列車速度曾經——達到我們今天這種水準的時候。

So the velocity of taking out the intermediate stops, the -- improving the efficiencies of the terminals, grinding out on these trip plans now in order to improve both the origin, the pickup at the customer location and delivery of the product and the car at the destination, driving train length, improving fuel efficiency, optimizing the use of distributed power. All of these initiatives are what drives the costs down, improves the quality of the product.

所以，透過取消中途停靠來提升速度、——提升場站效率、現在在這些行車計畫（trip plans）上持續打磨，以改善起點端（origin）的表現、在客戶端的提貨，以及在目的地交付產品與車輛；拉長列車編組長度、提升燃油效率、最佳化分散式動力（distributed power）的使用。所有這些措施都能推動成本下降、提升產品品質。

And at the end of the day, in the most simplistic terms, is what you want to measure at what we're doing by having a lower operating ratio drives the operating ratio down. It's day in, day out, 7-day a week work and process change. And now, that's what we're going to do.

而到最後，用最簡化的說法，你想用什麼來衡量我們在做的事情？就是更低的營運比率（operating ratio）——把營運比率往下拉。這是日復一日、每週 7 天的工作與流程變革。而現在，這就是我們要做的。

That's exactly why I brought in Ed Harris. Nobody is more of a bulldog when it comes to getting a hold of these initiatives and getting them done. So the organization, we spent 3 hours this morning with all of the vice presidents going through each and every one of these initiatives and assigning accountability and responsibility, not to get it done sometime in the second week of June, but to come back to me and Ed in about 10 or 12 days with a plan on how we're going to implement every one of these initiatives.

這也正是我把 Ed Harris 找來的原因。在掌握這些措施並把它們落實完成這件事上，沒有人比他更像鬥牛犬。所以在組織上，我們今天早上花了 3 個小時，和所有副總裁逐一檢視每一項措施，並分派問責與責任；不是要他們在六月第二週的某個時候才完成，而是要他們在大約 10 到 12 天內帶著一份計畫回來向我和 Ed 報告，說明我們要如何落實每一項措施。

So again, Kevin's giving me the "don't give the story away", but in the 1st of March, we'll have our transportation people there, our engineering people there, our mechanical people there to go through these strategies in detail and show you what we're doing to make -- to bring home these initiatives and, most importantly, get the results to the bottom line.

所以再次強調，Kevin 一直提醒我「別把故事都講完」，但在 3 月 1 日，我們會讓運輸團隊、工程團隊、機務（mechanical）團隊都到場，詳細說明這些策略，並向各位展示我們正在做什麼——把這些措施落地，並且最重要的是，把成果反映到最終盈餘（bottom line）。

Our next question comes from Matt Reustle of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Matt Reustle。

Just first, to start off on labor and that potential for additional headcount reductions, just want to make sure I understand that correctly. It sounds like you still see quite a bit of opportunity to take out labor costs on the existing volume base. Can you talk about how much of that is tied to management and consultant-type labor and any context around that and how much is tied to just the swings in volumes?

首先，從勞動力以及可能進一步裁減人力這件事開始，我想確認我理解得是否正確。聽起來你們仍然認為，在現有的運量基礎上，還有相當大的空間可以降低人力成本。你能談談其中有多少與管理層及顧問類型的人力相關，並提供一些背景脈絡；以及有多少只是與運量波動相關嗎？

In terms of the breakdown between management and the various different crafts, as I said, we're grinding this out right now and we'll give a little more of the details on that in about 6 weeks. So I just -- that plan, again, that we're looking at, we're looking at the attrition rates, the attrition by craft, that kind of thing as well as how aggressive we can get on some of these consultants. So again, when that plan is complete by New York time, we'll be able to give you some better view on that.

就管理層與各種不同工種之間的拆分而言，如我所說，我們目前正在把這件事一點一滴地推進，大約 6 週後會提供更詳細的資訊。所以我只是——那個計畫，再次強調，我們正在看離職率、按工種的離職情況，以及諸如此類的事項，同時也在評估我們在某些顧問身上能採取多積極的作法。因此同樣地，當那個計畫在紐約時間完成後，我們就能給你更好的視角。

But over time, Matt, just to chime in, all 3 categories of the resource-base, whether it's management union or contractors and consultants, you should expect all of those to be lower over time.

但從時間拉長來看，Matt，我補充一下，資源基礎的三大類別——不論是管理層、工會人員，或是承包商與顧問——你都應該預期這三者隨時間推移都會下降。

Okay, that's helpful. And just 1 follow-up on tax. In regards to the STB revenue adequacy determinations, is there any potential change there with what's going on, tax rates coming down that would impede your ability to raise rates, raise pricing? Have you thought through that or having conversations there?

好的，這很有幫助。另外就稅務再追問一點。關於 STB 的收入充足性（revenue adequacy）認定，在目前稅率下調的情況下，那邊是否可能出現任何變化，進而妨礙你們調升費率、提高定價的能力？你們是否已經想過這點，或正在進行相關對話？

Yes, we're starting to take a look at that obviously. The question around revenue adequacy is both specific to railroads and then across the industry. It is a through the cycle analysis rather than any particular year. And the other thing, obviously, that we always look at is what is the replacement cost, not really the historical book value that is used often by the regulators in determining what's revenue adequate. So nothing in the near term that causes new concern.

是的，我們顯然已開始著手檢視這件事。關於收入充足性的問題，既涉及鐵路公司個別情況，也涉及整個產業層面。這是一個跨景氣循環（through the cycle）的分析，而不是針對某一特定年度。另外一點，顯然我們一直會看的，是重置成本（replacement cost），而不是監管機構在判定是否「收入充足」時常用的歷史帳面價值。因此短期內沒有任何新的疑慮。

Our next question comes from Ken Hoexter of Merrill Lynch.

我們下一個問題來自美林（Merrill Lynch）的 Ken Hoexter。

Jim, (inaudible) but good luck to you, Ed and Frank, on moving forward. Maybe you can just talk a little bit about what has caught you off guard or things that are maybe a little different in how things have changed at the rail. I don't know maybe it's technology more advanced, PTC, something you have to learn, maybe kind of the learning steps for you, Ed, as you kind of get back and start tackling the precision railroad model at a different rail.

Jim，（聽不清），但祝你、Ed 和 Frank 接下來一切順利。也許你可以談談，有哪些事情讓你們措手不及，或是鐵路這邊有哪些變化使得情況有點不同。我不確定，可能是技術更先進、PTC（正向列車控制）之類需要學習的東西？也許談談你，Ed，回來之後在不同鐵路上推進精準鐵路（precision railroad）模式時的學習步驟。

Well, I'll tell you, Ken, that I've never been gone, to be honest about it. Even when I retired from CN or have moved on, I have consulted almost consistently helping global infrastructure partners buy a railroad in Australia twice. We went after Asciano 1 time, and then we ended up with Pacific National later than that. I've also consulted with Rio Tinto in Australia as well as Rumo in Brazil.

Ken，我跟你說，老實講我其實從未真正離開過。即使我從 CN 退休或轉往其他工作，我幾乎一直以顧問身分協助 Global Infrastructure Partners 在澳洲兩次收購鐵路資產。我們曾經追求過 Asciano 一次，之後又拿下了 Pacific National。我也曾為澳洲的 Rio Tinto 以及巴西的 Rumo 提供顧問服務。

And quite frankly, being part of the Chicago study group, the AAR study group that was sponsored by 6 retired chief operating officers, Hunter was kind enough to put me on that committee, and we learned a lot about Chicago. Unfortunately, the report, which belongs to [Brigadier], sits on a shelf somewhere in the AAR headquarters, I guess. There are still a lot of good ideas there.

坦白說，作為芝加哥研究小組的一員——也就是由 6 位退休的營運長贊助、AAR 的研究小組——Hunter 很好心把我放進那個委員會，我們對芝加哥學到了很多。不幸的是，那份報告屬於 [Brigadier]，我想它現在大概被放在 AAR 總部某個架子上。裡面仍然有很多好點子。

So I can't say I've been surprised about anything operationally. I will tell you this: we have to take advantage of the technology that's out there. Jim mentioned distributed power, and we're already starting our coal service more effectively with distributed power.

所以我不能說在營運上有什麼讓我意外的。但我會告訴你：我們必須善用現有的技術。Jim 提到分散式動力（distributed power），而我們已經開始用分散式動力更有效率地經營煤炭運輸服務。

I'm also a big component of run-through interchange especially in a terminal like Chicago. I'd like to look in, and I've got the group looking into running directly back into the UP and BN and trying in all of our efforts to stay out of the belt only because we're giving up 2 days' worth of cycle when we do that and I certainly would like to avoid that.

我也非常支持直通交接（run-through interchange），尤其是在像芝加哥這樣的終端場站。我想深入研究，而且我已經讓團隊在研究，讓列車直接回到 UP 和 BN，並且在我們所有努力中盡量避免進入 belt（環線/轉運帶），因為那樣做會讓我們的週轉週期損失 2 天，我當然希望能避免。

And I wouldn't rule out use of short lines. I've been on -- I've been Chairman of Omnitrax's board for the last 4 years, and have also been on the board of a track maintenance company up in Canada. Both positions resigned when Jim was -- Jim and the board were nice enough to give me an opportunity at this job again.

而且我也不會排除使用短線鐵路（short lines）。我過去 4 年一直擔任 Omnitrax 董事會主席，也曾在加拿大一家軌道維護公司的董事會任職。當 Jim——Jim 和董事會很友善地給我這次工作機會後，我就辭去了這兩個職務。

And a lot of people say I'm old. I just say I'm experienced. And I'm certainly really excited about the opportunity. I'm excited about the staff that I've met here at CSX. And I'm telling you this group is focused and will be even more so focused.

很多人說我老了。我只說我有經驗。而且我對這個機會非常興奮。我也對我在 CSX 這裡見到的團隊感到興奮。我告訴你，這個團隊很專注，而且會更加專注。

I wouldn't rule out the use of short lines for a shortcut route. I wouldn't rule out the use of partnering with our other Class I partners or carriers just to take advantage of maybe an opportunity to do some directional running and/or running long trains directionally.

我不會排除用短線鐵路作為捷徑路線。我也不會排除與其他一級鐵路（Class I）夥伴或承運人合作，以把握某些機會，例如做一些方向性運行（directional running），以及/或以方向性方式運行長編組列車。

With our network, we've got a lot of options, maybe too many options, but we'll look at that as well, too. So thanks for the question, and it's an honor to be part of Jim's team and certainly an honor to be back in the Class I fold again.

以我們的路網來看，我們有很多選項，甚至可能選項太多，但我們也會一併檢視。所以謝謝你的問題，能成為 Jim 團隊的一員是我的榮幸，也很榮幸能再次回到一級鐵路的行列。

Ed -- he hasn't missed a beat.

Ed——他完全沒有生疏。

He's exactly right.

他說得完全正確。

He's forgotten in his -- what do you call yourself? golden age or whatever you are now.

他在他的——你怎麼稱呼自己？黃金年華還是你現在的什麼狀態——

League of extraordinary gentlemen.

非凡紳士聯盟（League of extraordinary gentlemen）。

League of -- he's in the league extraordinary gentlemen now. He's forgotten more about railroading than most guys ever knew. So when I inherited this role and this responsibility on some -- under some extremely difficult circumstances, the first person that I thought of that could come in here is -- to make sure that I was able to keep enough eyes on the property to make sure we didn't skip a beat was Ed Harris.

非凡——他現在是非凡紳士聯盟的一員了。他對鐵路營運的了解，光是忘掉的都比多數人曾經知道的還多。所以當我在一些——在極其困難的情況下接下這個職務與責任時，我第一個想到能來這裡的人是——為了確保我能在資產現場保持足夠的關注、確保我們不會漏拍的人——就是 Ed Harris。

And so he's lived up to all expectations by the team. From the first day on the property, on a conference call, he jumps in in the middle of a call to start challenging people about why they're weighing chemical cars in a hump yard. And so it's great to have Ed here, and he's doing a super job.

因此他也符合團隊對他的所有期待。他到現場的第一天，在一次電話會議中，他就在通話中途直接加入，開始質疑大家為什麼要在驼峰調車場（hump yard）對化學品車輛過磅。所以 Ed 在這裡真的很棒，他做得非常出色。

Great. I guess just my follow-up would be the -- any reason for on-time arrivals still down in the 50s while originations have stepped up? And I guess just as you think about that -- and then I guess a follow-on to that is, do you kind of follow on with the Hunter camps and the whiteboard sessions in terms of working on the culture change at the company as you do that?

很好。那我接著追問的是——在發車量（originations）已經提升的同時，準點到達率（on-time arrivals）仍然在 50% 多的區間偏低，有沒有什麼原因？另外延伸一問，當你們在推動公司文化變革時，是否也會像 Hunter 那些陣營一樣，採用白板會議（whiteboard sessions）之類的方式？

I would probably say, Ken, originations, you're right. We're doing very well there and really doing very well on the intermodal train side. I think in an effort to keep that business so service-oriented, closer on time, the other trains might take a bit of a hit.

Ken，我大概會這麼說：發車量，你說得對，我們在那方面表現很好，尤其在聯運（intermodal）列車這一塊做得非常好。我們確實在那裡做得很出色，而且在聯運列車端真的做得非常好。我認為，為了讓那塊業務保持高度服務導向、更接近準點，其他列車可能就會受到一些影響。

It's wintertime, too, as well. This is a tough quarter to operate in. And the focus today will be, as it is when I walked in the door, is to reduce train starts, take some of that congestion out of the network, allow us to operate across the network on an on-time basis. And Jim mentioned it earlier, 7 days a week, full [pin] trains, I mean, from one end to the other. We want to fill the train out and certainly go with the tonnage.

另外現在也是冬季。這是一個營運起來很艱難的季度。而今天的重點——也就是我一進門時的重點——是減少列車開行（train starts），把路網中的一些壅塞排除，讓我們能在整個路網上以準點方式運行。Jim 先前也提到，每週 7 天、滿編（full [pin]）列車，我是說，從一端到另一端。我們希望把列車裝滿，並且當然要配合運量（tonnage）。

We've got enough power. We've got more power than what we need right now. And we've already started putting power up this year in regard to it. It's not a power question at all. It's probably more weather-related than anything else. And the effort is on service and will always be on service where I come from.

我們有足夠的動力。我們的動力比目前所需的還多。而且我們今年已經開始就此增加動力投入。這完全不是動力的問題。這可能更多是與天氣相關，而不是其他因素。而我們的努力重點在於服務，且在我這裡永遠都會以服務為重。

Yes, both the origin -- when we changed the -- when we redid the service design plan for the network, we improved, again, train fluidity, train velocity from terminal to terminal. Going back at origin and destination terminals is where our challenges were, which is not unexpected. And we have done -- made great strides in improving train originations.

是的，起點與終點兩端都是——當我們更改——當我們重新制定網路的服務設計計畫時，我們再次改善了列車的流動性、列車從端到端的運行速度。回到起點與目的地的場站才是我們面臨挑戰的地方，這並不令人意外。而且我們已經——在改善列車始發方面取得了很大的進展。

Now we need to get the final piece of the puzzle put together here, and everybody's focused on that. Clearly, I am not and I don't think anybody in this company is happy with us telling our customers when we're running this scheduled railroad that being on-time 50% is acceptable. That's not the goal. That's going to get fixed.

現在我們需要把這裡拼圖的最後一塊完成，所有人都專注在這件事上。很明顯，我不滿意，我想公司裡也沒有人會滿意：在我們運行這種定期班表鐵路時，告訴客戶準點率50%是可以接受的。那不是目標。這會被修正。

I told the customers that's going to get fixed and it's going to get fixed as quickly as we can. Unfortunately, we've been hit by some pretty tough weather over the last couple of weeks but we're -- all eyes are on the problem.

我已經告訴客戶，這會被修正，而且會以我們能做到的最快速度修正。不幸的是，過去幾週我們遭遇了相當嚴峻的天氣，但我們——所有人的目光都盯著這個問題。

Our next question comes from Brandon Oglenski of Barclays Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊資本（Barclays Capital）的Brandon Oglenski。

Jim, Ed and Frank, congrats on the new team here. I guess -- just wish it was under different circumstances but life happens fast. We look forward to you guys carrying on Hunter's legacy here.

Jim、Ed和Frank，恭喜你們組成新的團隊。我想——只是希望是在不同的情況下，但人生變化很快。我們期待你們延續Hunter在這裡的傳承。

I just want to follow up on the revenue question, Jim, about just looking out at the industrial landscape here. It seems like core growth might even be accelerating in North America. And obviously, we haven't even seen what's going to happen with the likely cash infusion we'll see from tax reform.

我想就營收問題再追問一下，Jim，從目前工業景氣來看。看起來北美的核心成長甚至可能正在加速。而且很明顯，我們甚至還沒看到稅改可能帶來的現金注入會如何發展。

So is there something about lingering -- just with that discussion on your on-time arrivals. Is there lingering service issues that just give you pause on the top line outlook for 2018? Or is it more strategic customer changes or a bigger focus on pricing over volume? How do we interpret that guidance?

所以，是否有一些揮之不去的因素——就你們準點到達的討論而言。是否仍有服務問題，讓你們對2018年的營收展望有所保留？或者更多是策略性的客戶調整，或是相較於量更重視定價？我們該如何解讀那個指引？

I think the -- no, there is nothing wrong. Clearly, we need to continue to focus on improving the service product. Again, short answer is when we had the serious service issues in the middle of the year, we lost some business. If you followed car loads, you can see that we lost some business.

我認為——不，沒有任何問題。很明顯，我們需要持續專注於改善服務產品。再說一次，簡短的答案是：當我們在年中出現嚴重的服務問題時，我們流失了一些業務。如果你有追蹤車皮裝載量（car loads），你可以看到我們確實流失了一些業務。

And then later in the year, when it came to intermodal, we demarketed a significant portion of our business. So -- and then we had a major plant shutdown in Florida, a fertilizer plant that is short-haul but a lot of volume. We had some big, significant moves, industrial waste, last year that we don't have this year.

然後在年底，談到聯運（intermodal）時，我們對相當大一部分業務進行了去行銷（demarketed）。所以——另外，我們在佛羅里達有一座大型工廠停產，是一座肥料廠，雖然是短程運輸，但量很大。去年我們還有一些很大、很顯著的運輸移動，例如工業廢棄物，但今年沒有了。

So yes, I believe -- and I speak with the head of our merchandise business unit every day because everybody's talking about we're going to have a 4% GDP run rate for the next 4 years or whatever it is you're talking about, why isn't the business growing. The underlying base business in our chemicals, in our [paperboard], is solid and stable.

所以是的，我相信——而且我每天都和我們商品（merchandise）事業單位的負責人談，因為大家都在說未來4年GDP年化會有4%或不管你們在談什麼，為什麼業務沒有成長。我們在化學品、在[紙板]等領域的基礎業務是扎實且穩定的。

We need to dig our way out of the -- some of these holes from the last 8, 9 months. And again, as I said earlier, implementation of this business plan hasn't historically maybe -- and again, it was the implementation of this plan, doing it the Hunter way was disruptive because he was very aggressive in making the changes -- caused business to go elsewhere.

我們需要從過去8、9個月留下的一些坑洞中把自己挖出來。而且如我先前所說，這個業務計畫的落實在歷史上可能——再說一次，落實這個計畫、以Hunter的方式去做，因為他在推動變革時非常強勢——是具有破壞性的，導致業務流向其他地方。

My experience is, and looking around and talking to other people, that business comes back when we smooth things out. And we are focused and working very, very hard to make the improvements in our service. That's just going to take a little time, and then it's going to take a little time for the people to trust in it and come back. But we are seeing some of those customers return already.

我的經驗是，並且我觀察周遭、也和其他人交流後，當我們把事情理順、運作更平順時，業務會回來。我們正非常、非常努力地專注於改善服務。這需要一點時間，接著也需要一點時間讓大家重新建立信任並回流。但我們已經看到部分客戶開始回來了。

Brandon, 1 other thing, just to remind everybody. We're about to cycle the heights of the net benchmark. We're probably close to $100 per ton below where we were in the first quarter of last year. So even though -- even if you assume neutral volumes, you're going to move it up at lower RPUs. So just keep that in mind as you think through things.

Brandon，還有一點提醒大家。我們即將進入淨基準（net benchmark）的高點比較基期。我們可能比去年第一季的水準低了接近每噸100美元。所以即使——即便你假設運量持平，你也會在較低的每單位營收（RPU）下把它往上推。所以在思考時請把這點放在心上。

Our next question comes from Justin Long of Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自Stephens的Justin Long。

So I wanted to start with a question on CapEx. You gave the guidance for $1.6 billion in 2018. Is that a good annual run rate to think about going forward? I was just wondering if you could talk in more detail about what's driving the reduction relative to last year and the sustainability of those cuts.

我想先從資本支出（CapEx）問起。你們給出的2018年指引是16億美元。這是否是一個未來可用來思考的年度常態水準？我想請你更詳細談談，相較去年下降的驅動因素，以及這些削減是否可持續。

Justin, on the CapEx -- so remember, in the $1.6 billion that Jim gave, you've got about $200 million of Positive Train Control as part of that. So your, what we call, core CapEx is more in the $1.4 billion range. What's driving that reduction is a handful of pretty significant things, obviously a bit of a rolling stock holiday on both engines and freight cars for the foreseeable future. So I think that's sustainable.

Justin，關於資本支出——先提醒一下，在Jim提到的16億美元裡，約有2億美元是正向列車控制（PTC）的一部分。所以我們所謂的核心資本支出大約在14億美元左右。推動下降的原因有幾個相當重要的因素，顯然包括在可預見的未來，機車與貨車兩方面都會有一段車輛採購的空窗期（rolling stock holiday）。所以我認為這是可持續的。

Then you look at sidings and technology and things of that nature. That's really going to depend on how Ed and Jim look at the railroad and how we unlock productivity going forward. So clearly, the rolling stock is going to hold. We're going to see a step-down in Positive Train Control from '18 to '19 and '19 to '20. We'll give you a lot more color on this as we get into the Investor Day, but at a high level, I think you could probably figure out where we're headed.

接著你再看會車線（sidings）、科技以及這類項目。那將真正取決於Ed和Jim如何看待這條鐵路，以及我們未來如何釋放生產力。所以很明顯，車輛部分會維持。我們會看到正向列車控制（PTC）從2018到2019、以及2019到2020逐步下降。等到投資人日（Investor Day）我們會提供更多細節，但從高層次來看，我想你大概可以推算出我們的方向。

Okay, great. That's helpful. And maybe as a quick follow-up on PTC, could you share your latest plans as it relates to the timing of that roll-out? And I'm also curious what you're expecting for the PTC operating costs this year and how that compares to what you saw last year.

好的，很好。這很有幫助。另外，關於PTC的快速追問，你能否分享你們目前與推行時程相關的最新計畫？我也想了解你們預期今年PTC的營運成本（operating costs）是多少，以及和去年相比如何。

Sure. So on where we are, we are at --- about half of the PTC footprint is operational. We will hit the compliance milestone at the end of 2018, which is that we will be hardware-compliant and over half of our subdivisions that are requiring PTC will be implemented. So we are on track to do that, and then we will be on track to hit the final milestones in 2020.

當然。就我們目前的進度而言——大約有一半的PTC覆蓋範圍已投入運作。我們會在2018年底達成合規里程碑，也就是硬體合規，且需要PTC的分區（subdivisions）中會有超過一半完成導入。所以我們正按計畫推進，接著也會按計畫在2020年達成最終里程碑。

Your OpEx question -- obviously, the OpEx has been ramping up since we started the project in 2008. In 2017, within our results, there's about $150 million of operating expense as part of our results. Ultimately, that could ramp up to somewhere in the $200 million to $250 million range in, say, 2021 or 2022 that's as things roll off of warranty, et cetera.

至於你問的營運費用（OpEx）——很明顯，自從我們在2008年啟動這個專案以來，OpEx就一直在爬升。在2017年的業績中，約有1.5億美元的營運費用包含在我們的結果裡。最終，隨著保固到期等因素，這個數字可能在例如2021或2022年爬升到約2億至2.5億美元的區間。

And remember, there's a big split there between what is cash and what's noncash. About 2/3 of the numbers I'm giving you are on the depreciation line, and then the rest are generally on the MS&O line.

請記住，那裡在現金與非現金之間有很大的區分。我給你的數字大約有 2/3 是在折舊那一行，其餘一般是在 MS&O 那一行。

Our next question comes from David Vernon of Sanford Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Sanford Bernstein 的 David Vernon。

Frank, I would ask the CapEx question in a slightly different way. Two years ago, you signed off on a budget at about $2.7 billion. This year is $2 billion. Next year is $1.6 billion. How do you get comfortable communicating to the board that we're not spending below sort of renewal CapEx?

Frank，我會用稍微不同的方式來問資本支出（CapEx）這個問題。兩年前，你核准的預算大約是 27 億美元。今年是 20 億美元。明年是 16 億美元。你如何能放心地向董事會溝通：我們並沒有把支出降到低於某種更新性資本支出（renewal CapEx）的水準？

I mean, this is a pretty aggressive cut in the capital budget on a 40-year asset. I'm just trying to get a sense for where you think maintenance CapEx levels really are in the railroad. And how do you get comfortable you're not getting below that level?

我的意思是，對一項 40 年的資產而言，這是對資本預算相當激進的削減。我只是想了解，你認為鐵路真正的維護性資本支出（maintenance CapEx）水準到底在哪裡。以及你如何能放心確定你沒有低於那個水準？

Yes, I think a good question. And I liked your opening paragraph where [your notes are put out]. Or a few (inaudible). But anyway, how do we get comfortable with it? It's because we're cutting in the right places and not cutting in the wrong places when you look at what we're doing from the number of track miles of new rail and the amount of ballasts that we're putting down, the number of ties that we're putting down and the bridges that we're working through. I mean, all of that in the core CapEx is largely the same that it has been when we had a $2.7 billion budget. Remember, when you look at the $2.7 billion budget, about $600 million of that was engines. We also had a couple of hundred million dollars of freight cars in there. We had a big siding budget and a big technology budget as part of that. So when you look at where we're going to be in the next few years, again, the rolling stock, I don't see us needing to invest any significant amount of money. Now we may spend money on distributed power and things like that but we're not going to spend money on new engines or new freight cars in the near term. We have over 20,000 freight cars in storage and -- I don't know, Ed, 800, 850 engines that we've either restored or scrapped.

是的，我覺得這是個好問題。而且我也喜歡你開頭那段（你把筆記整理出來的那段）。或者幾句（聽不清）。不過，總之，我們怎麼能放心？因為我們是在對的地方削減，而不是在錯的地方削減——當你看我們在做的事情：新鋼軌的鋪設里程、我們鋪下的道碴量、我們鋪設的枕木數量，以及我們正在整修的橋樑。我的意思是，所有這些核心 CapEx 基本上和我們有 27 億美元預算時大致相同。請記得，當你看 27 億美元的預算時，其中大約 6 億美元是機車。另外還有幾億美元的貨車車廂。其中還包含一個很大的會車線（siding）預算，以及一個很大的科技預算。所以當你看我們未來幾年要走的方向，再次強調，對於滾動資產（rolling stock），我看不出我們需要投入任何顯著的資金。我們可能會在分散式動力（distributed power）之類的項目上花錢，但短期內我們不會在新機車或新貨車車廂上花錢。我們有超過 20,000 輛貨車車廂在封存中，而且——我不知道，Ed，我們大概有 800、850 台機車已經不是修復就是報廢了。

Almost -- over 900.

幾乎——超過 900。

Yes.

是的。

900 locomotives that's serviceable, usable, ready-to-go locomotives. And we already put in 100 -- we put in 133. That includes the 133 that we [haven't] put in this year as we improve the fluidity. I do not envision us needing to spend any significant money in the next few years at least in the foreseeable future as far as I'm concerned on things like expanding intermodal terminals and doing things like that. We can improve the productivity in all of our facilities to the point where they should be functional as the way they stand today and actually free up facilities or maybe use for other purposes. And if we can't find another use for them, they're for sale. So in terms of the -- if you look at kind of the last 5-year run rate in terms of rail, in terms of turnouts, in terms of curve rail, in terms of ties installed, in terms of ballasts, it's -- we are spending the same amount of money that's historically been spent by CSX to make sure they have a safe and reliable network. When Hunter came in, he had many engineering firms come in, as anyone would do. And the reason I know that because my second day on the job, I went to the engineering department. That's the first thing you want to know is what kind of railroad you've got. And this is a very, very well-maintained, not gold-plated physical plant. And we intend to spend the same amount of money to keep this plant in excellent working shape into the foreseeable future. And -- but we don't need to spend money on the things that have been spent in the past and won't do that unless there is some huge, compelling reason for us to do that.

900 台機車是可維修、可使用、隨時可上線的機車。而且我們已經投入了 100——我們投入了 133 台。這包含了今年我們（尚未）投入的那 133 台，因為我們在改善運行順暢度（fluidity）。就我所見，在未來幾年、至少在可預見的未來，我不認為我們需要在例如擴建聯運（intermodal）場站、做那類事情上投入任何顯著資金。我們可以提升所有設施的生產力，使其以今天的狀態就能運作，甚至釋放出一些設施，或許改作其他用途。如果找不到其他用途，就出售。因此，就——如果你看過去 5 年的平均投入水準：鋼軌、道岔（turnouts）、曲線鋼軌（curve rail）、鋪設枕木、道碴等——我們花的錢與 CSX 歷來為確保網路安全可靠所投入的金額相同。Hunter 進來時，他找了很多工程顧問公司進來評估，任何人都會這麼做。我之所以知道，是因為我上任第二天就去了工程部門。你最先想知道的就是你擁有的是什麼樣的鐵路。這是一個維護得非常、非常好的實體資產（physical plant），但並不是「鍍金」的那種。而且我們打算在可預見的未來投入同樣的資金，讓這套資產保持在極佳的運作狀態。但是，我們不需要在過去曾經花過的那些項目上再花錢，除非有非常重大且具說服力的理由，否則我們不會那麼做。

But right now, my only thing to add to that is if I see any capital spend -- it may be in some siding extensions, that would be it -- but quite frankly, our average train length is less than our siding length as it is today. We still need to be pushing train length, train capacity, and then we start watching delays if we get into that.

不過現在，我唯一要補充的是：如果我看到任何資本支出——可能會是在某些會車線延長上，就這個——但坦白說，我們目前的平均列車長度其實已經小於會車線長度。我們仍需要推動列車長度、列車運能，然後如果我們進入那個區間，就開始觀察延誤情況。

And if we need to extend sidings, we'll do it smart and we'll use rail from other locations to relay that, to use that rail in these other locations. So we'll do it smart but we are not in any way shape or form, not keeping this railroad in fantastic condition.

如果我們需要延長會車線，我們會聰明地做，會把其他地點的鋼軌拆下來再鋪設（relay），把那些鋼軌用在這些其他地點。所以我們會用更聰明的方式來做，但我們絕對沒有、以任何形式或方式，忽視把這條鐵路維持在極佳狀態。

And just maybe as a quick follow-up, do you feel comfortable that the network, as it's been invested today, can handle the longer trains and running a little bit faster? Or do you think there's a risk that you might see some CapEx creep back into the outlook a year or 2 down the road?

再快速追問一下：你是否有信心，依照目前的投資狀況，這個網路能夠承受更長的列車、以及稍微更快的運行？或者你認為有風險，可能在一到兩年後，資本支出會重新在展望中慢慢回升（CapEx creep）？

We're not planning on doing anything in terms of train length and distributed power that hasn't been done on other railroads for a decade. So this is just a question of implementing strategies that have been tried and proven effectively across North America. And clearly, we have the physical plants and the assets to be able to do it.

我們在列車長度與分散式動力方面，並沒有計畫做任何其他鐵路公司在過去十年未曾做過的事。所以這只是把在北美各地已經被嘗試並證明有效的策略加以落實。而且很明顯，我們具備足夠的實體資產與設備來做到這一點。

The next question comes from Fadi Chamoun of BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Fadi Chamoun。

Jim, I just wanted to kind of circle back on the culture a little bit and what's going on with CSX. I mean, a number of the former CSX leaders have left, and now the leadership transitioned to you and you brought on a very capable operator in Ed Harris, and that's all great. I just wonder if you can talk a little bit about the morale of the rank and file. Do you feel that you are supported? Do you feel that the vision that you've laid out in -- that Hunter laid out and you're continuing on with precision railroading gets kind of supported across the organization?

Jim，我想稍微回到企業文化以及 CSX 目前的狀況。我的意思是，許多前 CSX 的領導者已經離開，而現在領導權轉到你手上，你也延攬了一位非常能幹的營運主管 Ed Harris，這些都很好。我只是想請你談談基層員工的士氣如何。你覺得你獲得支持嗎？你覺得你所提出的願景——Hunter 所提出、而你持續推動的精準鐵路營運（precision railroading）——在整個組織內是否得到支持？

Yes, my belief -- and I've said this from the very beginning, I've been extremely impressed, just like Ed said. Ed's been here a week, not even. And as Ed said, the people here are very impressive. These are great railroaders. They're hard workers and they want to do a good job. They just -- they're looking for a little guidance and they want to be a success. Everybody in life wants to be a success. And this model, the scheduled railroad model, is the way to turn CSX around and make it, as I keep telling everyone, the best-run railroad in North America. So I have a high degree of confidence that the people here are bought in to what it is we're trying to accomplish. You must -- you've got to understand it wasn't that long ago there was a lot of chaos going on around here, as I said, with a lot of changes that were being made in -- for Hunter, for Hunter happens to have done what he did in about 8 months, what we did at CN in about 3 years. I can only imagine the pace of change and how chaotic that was for the team here. Since that point in time, everybody has been focused in -- on what it is that needs to be accomplished. Unfortunately, under the circumstances, I have not had enough time to get out into the field. But Ed's going to go out in the field. I have plans already in place for me to get out and basically visit every location on the railroad and meet with every management person on the company and talk to them and tell them, make sure they understand what it is we're trying to accomplish. And the feedback that I've gotten from the unsolicited e-mails from just some employees all over the network is that they wanted to let me know that they support me and they're welcoming me to the company, whether it's mechanical people in Pennsylvania to just people in the hallways here in the headquarters office. So I'm confident that we're going to be able to get out -- Ed and I are going to be able to get out with the rest of the people, the management team and talk to people over the summer.

是的，我的看法——而且我從一開始就這麼說——我非常印象深刻，就像 Ed 說的。Ed 來這裡才一週，甚至不到。而且如 Ed 所說，這裡的人都非常令人印象深刻。這些都是很棒的鐵路人。他們很努力工作，也想把工作做好。他們只是——他們在尋求一點指引，而且他們想要成功。人生中每個人都想成功。而這個模式，也就是定期化鐵路營運模式（scheduled railroad model），就是讓 CSX 扭轉局面、並使其——正如我一直告訴大家的——成為北美營運最好的鐵路公司的方法。所以我非常有信心，這裡的人都認同我們想要達成的目標。你必須——你得了解，不久之前這裡還有很多混亂，正如我說的，因為為了 Hunter 而做了很多變更——Hunter 在大約 8 個月內完成了他所做的事，而我們在 CN 花了大約 3 年。我只能想像變革的速度，以及這對這裡的團隊而言有多混亂。從那個時間點之後，大家都把重心放在——放在需要完成的事情上。不幸的是，在這種情況下，我沒有足夠的時間到現場去。但 Ed 會到現場去。我已經有計畫要出去，基本上走訪鐵路沿線的每一個據點，並與公司每一位管理人員會面，和他們談，確保他們了解我們想要達成的是什麼。而我從一些遍布整個網路的員工主動寄來的電子郵件所得到的回饋是，他們想讓我知道他們支持我，也歡迎我加入公司——不論是賓州的機務人員，或是總部辦公室走廊裡的同仁。所以我有信心，我們將能夠走出去——Ed 和我將能夠和其他人、管理團隊一起走出去，並在夏天與大家交流。

Our next question comes from Ravi Shanker of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Ravi Shanker。

Just a couple of follow-ups here. I'm sorry if I missed this earlier, but did you give your expectations of cost inflation and productivity gains target for 2018?

這裡有幾個追問。如果我先前漏聽了很抱歉，但你們有給出 2018 年成本通膨以及生產力提升目標的預期嗎？

Hey, Ravi. Frank. No, we did not. You should expect significant efficiency gains, obviously, in connection with the revenue guidance that Jim gave and the OR expansion guidance that we gave. In terms of inflation, you obviously have a pretty significant reduction in inflation year-over-year. Obviously, we've had a real big inflation here in 2017. [Kind of] see that step down quite nicely in 2018. The health and welfare bogey that was out there in 2017, we've sort of gotten through that one. The health care trust on the Union sides back to fully funded, so we don't have that catch-up like we did in 2017. So we ought to be in better shape in terms of inflation going forward in 2017 -- or 2018, but we did not give specific dollar guidance.

嗨，Ravi。我是 Frank。沒有，我們沒有。你應該預期會有顯著的效率提升，這顯然會與 Jim 提供的營收指引以及我們給出的營運比率（OR）改善指引相呼應。就通膨而言，你會看到年對年通膨明顯下降。顯然，我們在 2017 年的通膨非常高。在 2018 年會看到相當不錯的下滑。2017 年外界提到的健康與福利成本（health and welfare）那個「障礙值／假設值」（bogey），我們算是已經度過了。工會端的醫療保健信託（health care trust）已回到完全提撥（fully funded），所以不會像 2017 年那樣需要補提。因此，就 2017——或 2018 年——往後的通膨而言，我們的狀況應該會更好，但我們沒有提供具體的金額指引。

Got it. So in 2017, you said that you'd do your record year of productivity. Will you do another record year in 2018?

了解。所以在 2017 年，你們說會創下生產力的歷史最佳年度。2018 年也會再創新高嗎？

Come see us in March.

三月來找我們再談。

Our next question comes from Ben Hartford -- excuse me. Our next question will come from Bascome Majors with Susquehanna International.

下一個問題來自 Ben Hartford——不好意思。下一個問題將來自 Susquehanna International 的 Bascome Majors。

For Jim or Frank, can you help us with how middle management is incentivized to deliver the financial outcomes that investors are expecting from you guys and how, if at all, that has changed since Hunter joined almost a year ago?

想請教 Jim 或 Frank，你們能否說明中階管理層是如何被激勵，以交付投資人對你們所期待的財務成果？以及自 Hunter 大約一年前加入以來，這方面是否有任何改變？

The incentives in terms of annual cash bonus for management -- and actually, you've got some unions on it as well, are 100% aligned with the types of targets we've set in the past and the types of targets that we'll set in the future, specifically operating income and operating ratio. And then as we go forward for multi-year incentives, those will be operating income and free cash flow.

管理層的年度現金獎金激勵——其實也涵蓋部分工會人員——與我們過去設定的目標類型，以及未來將設定的目標類型，完全一致，具體而言就是營業利益（operating income）與營運比率（operating ratio）。而往後在多年期激勵方面，將會是營業利益與自由現金流（free cash flow）。

Our next question comes from Walter Spracklin of RBC Capital.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital 的 Walter Spracklin。

Frank, you talked about inflation, how it was going to step down. Are you indicating that your overall costs or rail inflation is expected to go negative or just step down from the higher rate that's...

Frank，你談到通膨會下滑。你的意思是整體成本或鐵路通膨預期會轉為負值，還是只是從較高的增速下滑……

Less of a hurdle.

阻力變小。

Less of a hurdle, okay. Makes sense. Okay and so on that basis -- I know, Jim, you're not guiding on price, but is there any reason why you wouldn't be able to continue to exceed the inflation, the rail inflation that you're seeing in the marketplace with your pricing?

阻力變小，好的。有道理。好，那在這個基礎上——我知道 Jim 你不對價格提供指引——但你們的定價有什麼理由不能持續跑贏通膨、也就是你們在市場上看到的鐵路通膨嗎？

Well, I think as I told you before, I think that the -- again, what I said about the prices earlier in terms of the merchandise, what they were and what they were in the quarter, I can't really talk about future prices but if you kind of look at what we've done and then you go make your own assessment as to what they'll be next year and the year after.

嗯，我想我之前跟你說過，我認為——再一次，關於我先前提到的商品運輸（merchandise）價格，就它們是什麼、以及在本季的表現，我無法真正談未來價格；但如果你看看我們做過的事情，然後你可以自行評估明年、以及後年的價格可能會是什麼。

Let's go back to Bascome's question 1 second. On the multi-year trajectory in the incentives, it's operating ratio and free cash flow, not operating income and free cash flow. On the 1-year incentives, it is operating income and operating ratio.

我們回到 Bascome 的問題一下。在多年期激勵的軌跡上，是營運比率（operating ratio）與自由現金流（free cash flow），不是營業利益與自由現金流。在一年期激勵上，則是營業利益與營運比率。

Okay. On the volume side then, if we look at your price/mix and volume as your component to your revenue up slightly, if we make the assumption that your pricing is going to exceed inflation, it would suggest that your volume will be negative for next year. If that's the wrong read, let me know, but is there -- is this just a function of some of the -- what you mentioned about volatility in some of your end markets with regards to coal or other? Or am I -- are we not to take that view of negative volume and a negative volume environment and perhaps associate it with mix?

好的。那在運量方面，如果我們看你們的價/組合（price/mix）與運量作為營收小幅成長的組成，若假設你們的定價會高於通膨，這似乎意味著明年的運量會是負成長。如果這樣解讀不對請告訴我，但這是否只是你提到的某些終端市場波動（例如煤炭或其他）所造成的結果？或者我——我們不該用負運量、負運量環境的角度來看，而應該把它與組合（mix）連結起來？

So yes, you asked a good and fairly complicated question given the moving parts. Remember a couple of things. Jim mentioned what we're doing on the intermodal side and what we've done in 2017. That's got to cycle through from a volume perspective. We did have some plant closures and project completions and things that Jim mentioned. So those have to roll through. Even if you look at export coal and say it's volume-neutral, you do have a fairly significant step-down in the benchmarks. So you have to have all of those things as part of your equation. When you look at merch and intermodal, there's going to be, obviously, 1 level of pricing that we're assuming, but when you cycle a big RPU difference in the export coal, [your headline number may not be impressive]. But that's part of what we're dealing with in 2018. And then the fuel, obviously, should -- to Scott's earlier question, should be up next year, given where the price of fuel is.

所以，是的，你問了一個很好的、而且在各種變動因素下相當複雜的問題。記住幾件事。Jim 提到我們在聯運（intermodal）方面正在做的事，以及我們在 2017 年做了什麼。從運量角度來看，這些必須在比較基期中反映出來。我們確實有一些工廠關閉、專案完工等事項，Jim 也提到了。所以這些都必須在數字中逐步反映。即使你看出口煤並說它在運量上是中性，你仍會看到基準價格（benchmarks）相當明顯地下滑。所以你必須把所有這些因素都納入你的方程式。當你看商品運輸與聯運時，我們顯然假設會有某個定價水準；但當出口煤的每單位收入（RPU）出現很大的變化時，[你的表面數字可能不會很亮眼]。但這就是我們在 2018 年要面對的一部分。另外，燃料方面，顯然——回應 Scott 先前的問題——考量到燃料價格的位置，明年應該會上升。

Okay. And last question, just generally, kind of on guidance in general. I mean, you've obviously, in the past, been quite transparent and very good with providing that guidance. And I've just noticed a lot of repeated questions here as we try to understand some of what you're saying in terms of your outlook here. Are we just in this kind of interim period before your March Investor Day? And are we going to move back toward a little bit more of clarity with regards to what your 2000 -- or your next year guidance is? Or is this kind of more of a -- demonstrative of the new norm in terms of what disclosure you'll be providing on a go-forward basis?

好的。最後一個問題，整體來說，關於指引（guidance）這件事。我的意思是，你們過去顯然一直相當透明，也很擅長提供這些指引。而我只是注意到，當我們試著理解你們對前景的說法時，這裡出現了很多重複的問題。我們是否正處於你們三月投資人日之前的這種過渡期？我們是否會回到更清楚一些的狀態，尤其是關於你們2000——或是你們明年的指引？還是說，這更像是——在往後你們將提供何種揭露（disclosure）的新常態之展現？

Specifically as it just relates to price?

具體來說是只跟價格有關嗎？

No, no. Your volume outlook used to delineate on a kind of category-by-category basis. You gave tonnage with regards to export coal. Your earnings guidance was kind of in a more explicit range.

不，不是。你們對運量的展望過去會按類別一項一項地劃分說明。你們會提供出口煤炭的噸數。你們的盈餘指引也會以更明確的區間呈現。

Again, yes. I mean, in terms of price, as I said earlier, I mean, this is the kind of discussion that I've historically done in other lives in the industry. So this is probably the new norm in terms of just price -- the price discussion. In terms of everything else, I expect that we will continue to be as transparent as the company has been in the past. And I think, yes, your conclusion that are we hedging until we get to the investor meeting is accurate. We'll be a little more forthcoming on some of these topics in New York and again be in a position there to answer the questions at that time.

再說一次，是的。我的意思是，就價格而言，如我先前所說，這類討論我過去在產業裡的其他職涯階段也一直在做。所以，這大概會是新的常態，就價格——價格討論而言。至於其他所有方面，我預期我們會一如公司過去那樣持續保持透明。而且我想，是的，你的結論——我們是否是在投資人會議之前先採取較保守的說法——是正確的。我們會在紐約就其中一些主題提供更充分的資訊，並且也會在那時處於能回答問題的位置。

Our next question comes from Jason Seidl of Cowen and Company.

下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Jason Seidl。

Quickly, can you talk a little bit about the cadence of volume expectations for next year? Do you expect to get some of that business that you guys lost in 2017 back as your service levels improve?

簡單問一下，你能談談明年運量預期的節奏（cadence）嗎？隨著你們的服務水準改善，你們是否預期能把2017年流失的部分業務拿回來？

Again, yes, some of it might not come back. Some of it, we might not want back. And some of it is already beginning to return. So it's going to be kind of a mixed bag. If you assume that when a company makes a decision to go to a different transportation service provider, they probably don't do it for a couple of weeks. Maybe they commit for a year. And so that -- as we work our way through this issue, if you assume that the service problems began last year around June, July, that's probably when we saw some of the business begin to move away. And so I would -- I am optimistic, and we are working with our sales team to have a good understanding there of -- if I need to go and talk to the customers and say, "Listen. We've changed things and things are better." I've told the sales guys I'm willing to go out and do that. I know Ed's willing to go out and meet with customers. I've already met with a lot of customers. They want assurances that scheduled railroad does not mean disruption. And we're able to explain that, and now they want us to say, "Show me." And as we've said throughout the call today, that's our #1 goal right now is to show them. And I believe in history -- that history repeats itself. To what my experience has been in the past, when we show people that we're better and we're substantially better than we were and substantially better than the competition that the business will begin to come back. But it's not something you can just flip a switch on. You've got to -- in some cases, you've got to win back the trust of the customer, and that's the plan going into '18.

再說一次，是的，其中一些可能不會回來。其中一些，我們可能也不想要回來。而其中一些已經開始回流。所以會有點像是各種情況混在一起。如果你假設一家公司決定改用不同的運輸服務供應商，他們大概不會只做幾週。也許他們會承諾一年。因此——當我們處理這個問題時，如果你假設服務問題是去年大約在6、7月開始，那大概就是我們看到部分業務開始流失的時間點。所以我會——我很樂觀，我們也正與銷售團隊合作，以便更清楚了解——如果我需要去跟客戶談並說：「聽著。我們已經做了改變，情況變好了。」我已經告訴銷售同仁，我願意出去做這件事。我知道 Ed 也願意出去拜訪客戶。我已經見過很多客戶了。他們想要的是保證：排程式鐵路（scheduled railroad）不代表會造成干擾。我們能夠解釋這一點，而現在他們希望我們說：「拿出證明給我看。」而正如我們今天整場電話會議一直在說的，我們現在的第一要務就是向他們證明。而我相信歷史——歷史會重演。依我過去的經驗，當我們向大家證明我們變得更好、而且比以前好很多、也比競爭對手好很多時，業務就會開始回來。但這不是你按一下開關就能做到的事。你必須——在某些情況下，你必須重新贏回客戶的信任，而這就是我們進入2018年的計畫。

And Jason, you know that the comps are harder in the first quarter.

Jason，你也知道，第一季的比較基期更難。

Yes, no. It sounds like you guys will at least get a chance to win back that -- you have a few months to win back that confidence here before some of these maybe year-long commitments renew. A follow-up question, real quick. You guys got back into the [Baltimore tunnel project] after getting out of it. Just wondering the thought process behind that.

是的，不。聽起來你們至少會有機會把那個——你們有幾個月的時間在一些可能為期一年的承諾到期續約之前，去贏回那份信心。再追問一個問題，很快。你們在退出之後又重新回到 [Baltimore tunnel project]（巴爾的摩隧道專案）。想請問背後的思考過程是什麼。

No. My commitment was -- again, there was a lot of dialogue with the city, the state, the federal representatives, the ports. And literally, I mean, I was on the job about 2.5 weeks and was asked to go sit in the U.S. Senate building and discuss the Baltimore tunnel project with those people. And what I told them was that we would -- Hunter had said no. We are not taking federal money to double-stack this tunnel. We don't need it. That is, we don't need to double-stack tunnel. And what I told the individuals that I met with was that I would undertake to take my own look at this project and run the numbers again in terms where we saw growth, where, if we needed to double-stack the tunnel and also look at whether or not there are alternatives to double-stacking the tunnel that meets the needs of the growing port, meet the needs of our customers and meet the needs of the government officials in terms of moving these public works projects forward. And we are in the process of working our way through that, have not reached the conclusion. When we reach a conclusion, we'll go -- I will go back personally, and I will go back and meet with those groups and tell them what our decision is. But we haven't completed the work yet to be able to do that.

不。我的承諾是——再說一次，當時與市政府、州政府、聯邦代表、港口方面有很多對話。而且說真的，我上任大約2.5週，就被要求到美國參議院大樓，與那些人討論巴爾的摩隧道專案。我告訴他們的是，我們會——Hunter 之前說過不。我們不會拿聯邦資金來做這個隧道的雙層堆疊（double-stack）改造。我們不需要。也就是說，我們不需要把隧道做成可雙層堆疊。而我告訴我見到的各位的是，我會親自重新檢視這個專案，並重新跑一次數字，看看我們在哪裡看到成長、在哪些情況下如果需要讓隧道可雙層堆疊；同時也會評估是否存在替代方案，在不做雙層堆疊的情況下也能滿足成長中的港口需求、滿足客戶需求，並滿足政府官員推動這些公共工程專案的需求。我們正在推進這項工作，但尚未得出結論。當我們得出結論時，我會——我會親自回去，回去與那些團體會面，告訴他們我們的決定是什麼。但我們還沒有完成相關工作，因此目前還無法這麼做。

Thank you so much, everyone. I look forward to seeing you in New York in about, I guess, 6 weeks or whatever it is and then again have a great dialogue with you at that time.

非常感謝各位。我期待大約——我想是6週左右——在紐約見到大家，並且到時再與各位進行一場很好的對話。

Thank you, and this concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call, and you may disconnect your lines.

謝謝，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的電話會議，現在可以掛線。