CSX Corporation (CSX) 2018 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CSX Corporation Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、各位先生，下午好，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2018 年第二季財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。(接線員指示)

For opening remarks and introduction, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Kevin Boone, Chief Investor Relations Officer for CSX Corporation.

接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話交給 CSX Corporation 投資人關係長 Kevin Boone 先生。

Thank you, Amber, and good afternoon, everyone. Today -- with me on today's call is Jim Foote, Chief Executive Officer; and Frank Lonegro, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，Amber，各位下午好。今天——與我一同參與本次電話會議的有 Jim Foote，執行長；以及 Frank Lonegro，財務長。

On Slide 2 is our forward-looking disclosure, followed by our non-GAAP disclosure on Slide 3.

投影片第 2 頁是我們的前瞻性聲明揭露，接著投影片第 3 頁是我們的非 GAAP 揭露。

With that, it is my pleasure to introduce President and Chief Executive Officer, Jim Foote.

接下來，我很榮幸介紹總裁兼執行長 Jim Foote。

Thank you, Kevin. Well, it's great to be with you this afternoon. Thank you all for joining our call.

謝謝你，Kevin。很高興今天下午能與各位在一起。感謝各位加入我們的電話會議。

In order to get started, I guess, the first way to kick it off is the press release that we put out says it all: record financial results. These results are due to the hard work of all CSX employees who I could tell you are really excited about what has been accomplished. We will all celebrate a little bit tonight and then it's back to work tomorrow to continue to drive change to fully realize the potential of this company.

為了開始，我想，最好的開場方式就是我們發布的新聞稿已經說明了一切：創紀錄的財務成果。這些成果來自所有 CSX 員工的辛勤努力；我可以告訴各位，他們對已完成的成就感到非常振奮。今晚我們都會稍微慶祝一下，然後明天就回到工作崗位，持續推動變革，以充分實現這家公司的潛力。

Before I turn to the slides, let me comment on a couple of key initiatives. First, safety. We intend to be the safest railroad. In May, our new Chief Safety Officer, Jim Schwichtenberg, joined the company. [Schwich] comes to us with 20 years of railroad experience including almost 10 years with the FRA. I'm confident that he can bring new approaches that will drive improvement in our safety performance.

在我切入投影片之前，先談幾項關鍵倡議。第一，安全。我們的目標是成為最安全的鐵路公司。5 月，我們的新任首席安全長 Jim Schwichtenberg 加入公司。[Schwich] 擁有 20 年鐵路經驗，其中近 10 年在 FRA 任職。我相信他能帶來新的方法，推動我們的安全績效持續改善。

Also in May, we engaged DEKRA, a highly regarded expert in helping companies improve their safety performance. A comprehensive safety assessment is underway, and I expect positive changes to materialize as a result. The entire organization is committed to being the best in safety.

同樣在 5 月，我們聘請了 DEKRA——在協助企業提升安全績效方面備受推崇的專家。目前正進行全面性的安全評估，我預期將因此帶來正向的改變。整個組織都致力於在安全方面做到最好。

Second, we recently announced the appointment of Mark Wallace as Executive Vice President, Sales and Marketing. I've known Mark for a long time, and his ability to lead combined with more than 20 years of scheduled railroading experience will allow our sales and marketing team to work more effectively with our customers and drive profitable growth.

第二，我們近期宣布任命 Mark Wallace 擔任執行副總裁（銷售與行銷）。我認識 Mark 很久了；他兼具領導能力，並擁有超過 20 年的定期化鐵路營運（scheduled railroading）經驗，將使我們的銷售與行銷團隊能更有效地與客戶合作，並推動獲利成長。

Diana Sorfleet will take over most of Mark's former portfolio, assuming increased responsibility as Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer.

Diana Sorfleet 將接手 Mark 先前負責的大部分業務組合，並以執行副總裁兼首席行政長的身分承擔更多責任。

Diana, in her role as CSX's Chief Human Resources Officer, has built a big -- has been a big part of our transformation by driving a more productive and engaged workforce. Her new responsibilities, which will now include technology and labor relations, provide a significant opportunity to drive a more full-focused organization.

Diana 在擔任 CSX 首席人力資源長期間，透過打造更具生產力且更投入的員工隊伍，成為我們轉型的重要推手。她的新職責將納入科技與勞資關係，這為推動更聚焦的組織運作提供了重大機會。

Now to get to the slides, let's turn to Slide 5 and start with our results. Two words, I think, sum up everything: great performance. Just like the first quarter, there's nothing unusual in these numbers. They are very straightforward. EPS increased 58% to $1.01 versus last year's adjusted EPS of $0.64. The new lower tax rate and lower share count, down 6%, contributed to the significant year-over-year increase.

現在來看投影片，請翻到投影片第 5 頁，先從我們的業績談起。我想用兩個字概括一切：卓越表現。就像第一季一樣，這些數字沒有任何不尋常之處。它們非常直接明瞭。每股盈餘（EPS）成長 58% 至 1.01 美元，相較去年調整後 EPS 為 0.64 美元。新的較低稅率以及較低的流通股數（下降 6%）共同促成了顯著的年增幅。

Our operating ratio improved 490 basis points to a record 58.6% compared to last year's adjusted OR of 63.5%, clearly, the lowest ever for CSX and, I believe, the lowest ever by a U.S. railroad. The significant year-over-year improvement on our results was driven by 6% top line growth, combined with price and lower costs, pretty much across the board with the exception of fuel.

我們的營運比率（Operating Ratio）改善 490 個基點至創紀錄的 58.6%，相較去年調整後 OR 為 63.5%；這顯然是 CSX 歷來最低，我也相信是美國鐵路業者歷來最低。我們業績的顯著年增改善，來自營收端成長 6%，再加上價格提升與成本下降，幾乎全面發生（燃料除外）。

Revenue increased 6% as price, fuel surcharge, supplemental revenues and a 2% increase in volume, all contributed to positive growth this quarter.

營收成長 6%，其中價格、燃油附加費、補充性收入以及運量成長 2%，都對本季的正向成長有所貢獻。

Similar to recent trends, we did see slight improvement in pricing this quarter, excluding coal.

與近期趨勢相同，本季我們確實看到定價略有改善（不含煤炭）。

Quick look at the -- on the next slide, on the business segments, each were -- which were positively impacted by higher fuel and price. In chemicals, strength in industrial product, plastics and crude-by-rail was partially offset by our fly ash losses, which we discussed last quarter. Auto saw strength based on North American U.S. light truck production, which was up 5%. In forest products, lumber, panels, wall board and paper products, all increased in the quarter. In metals, shipments of sheet steel and construction-related steel products drove increases. Fertilizers' revenues, as I have mentioned previously, were mainly lower due to the Plant City facility closure last year. And in the coal markets, export coal remained very good during the quarter and showed healthy gains. Utility coal continued to weaken.

快速看一下——下一頁的業務分部，各分部都受到較高燃油回收與價格提升的正面影響。在化學品方面，工業產品、塑膠與原油鐵路運輸（crude-by-rail）的強勁表現，部分被我們的飛灰（fly ash）流失所抵銷，這點我們在上季已討論過。汽車方面，受惠於北美（美國）輕型卡車產量成長 5% 帶動，表現強勁。在林產品方面，木材、板材、石膏板與紙製品本季皆成長。在金屬方面，鋼板與建築相關鋼材產品的出貨帶動成長。如我先前提到，肥料營收主要因去年 Plant City 設施關閉而下降。在煤炭市場方面，本季出口煤炭維持非常良好並呈現健康增長。公用事業用煤持續走弱。

On the intermodal side of the business, growth continued to come from the international markets, with domestic relatively flat on a year-over-year basis because of the line rationalizations that we -- went through in the fall of 2017.

在聯運（intermodal）業務方面，成長仍主要來自國際市場；國內市場則與去年同期大致持平，原因是我們在 2017 年秋季進行的路線合理化調整。

Other revenue declined $58 million -- declined due to a $58 million liquidated damages, which was in last year's results, which did not repeat this year. Excluding that item, we saw gains in supplemental revenue including demurrage.

其他收入年減——下降的原因是去年業績中包含 5,800 萬美元的違約金（liquidated damages），今年未再發生。若排除此項目，我們看到補充性收入（包含滯期費 demurrage）有所增加。

We continue to work with customers to create a more fluid network, especially as we approach the fall peak season.

我們持續與客戶合作，以打造更順暢的運輸網路，特別是在接近秋季旺季之際。

On Slide 7, let's take a quick look at some of the key operating metrics that this team is focused on. Train velocity increased year-over-year and on a sequential basis. Terminal dwell saw an 11% year-over-year and 7% sequential improvement. While we drove improved velocity in dwell, train length increased on both a year-over-year basis 13% and, sequentially, 5%. Let me tell you, improving all 3 of these metrics at the same time is no easy task.

在投影片第 7 頁，我們快速看一下這個團隊所聚焦的一些關鍵營運指標。列車速度（train velocity）較去年同期與前一季皆提升。終端停留時間（terminal dwell）較去年同期改善 11%，較前一季改善 7%。在我們推動速度與停留時間改善的同時，列車長度（train length）也在年增 13% 與季增 5% 的基礎上同步增加。我可以告訴各位，同時改善這三項指標絕非易事。

Finally, car miles per day showed low double-digit improvement on both a year-over-year and sequential basis. This is a good measure of asset efficiency and our ability to effectively turn our assets. The improvements we saw on these metrics clearly translated into our financial results.

最後，每日車輛英里數（car miles per day）在年增與季增兩個面向都呈現低雙位數的改善。這是衡量資產效率以及我們有效周轉資產能力的一項良好指標。我們在這些指標上看到的改善，顯然已轉化為財務成果。

Now let me hand it off to Frank, who'll go through the financials in more detail as well as the benefits of these operating improvements.

接下來我把時間交給 Frank，他將更詳細地說明財務狀況，以及這些營運改善所帶來的效益。

Thank you, Jim, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝你，Jim，各位下午好。

Turning to Slide 9, I'll walk you through the summary income statement. Reported revenue was up 6% in the second quarter, driven by 2% more volume, higher fuel recoveries and solid core pricing gains across all major markets. Same-store sales pricing, which reflects year-over-year increases for stable traffic, improved sequentially in the second quarter. Pricing for merchandise and intermodal contracts that renewed in the second quarter were strong, exceeding same-store sales pricing growth.

請看投影片第 9 頁，我將帶各位快速瀏覽損益表摘要。第二季公告營收年增 6%，主要由運量增加 2%、較高的燃油回收，以及在所有主要市場的穩健核心定價提升所帶動。同店銷售定價（same-store sales pricing）反映穩定貨流的年對年價格提升，於第二季較前一季改善。第二季續約的商品與聯運合約定價表現強勁，增幅超過同店銷售定價的成長。

Other revenue was down year-over-year, though the benefit of higher demurrage and storage charges mostly offset the cycling of $58 million in liquidated damages from the prior year. Note that we now expect other revenue to remain in the $130 million to $140 million per quarter range for the remainder of the year.

其他收入年減，不過較高的滯期費與倉儲費收入帶來的效益，大致抵銷了去年 5,800 萬美元違約金的基期因素。請注意，我們目前預期今年剩餘期間其他收入將維持在每季 1.3 億至 1.4 億美元的區間。

Moving to expenses. Total operating expenses were 8% lower in the second quarter or 2% lower after normalizing for last year's restructuring charge. Overall, labor and fringe savings of $82 million or 11% year-over-year were driven by an 11% reduction in average headcount. This smaller labor footprint spans both the operating and G&A departments.

接著談費用。第二季總營運費用年減8%，若將去年重整費用正常化後則年減2%。整體而言，勞工與附加福利節省8,200萬美元（年減11%），主要來自平均員工人數年減11%。這較小的勞動規模涵蓋營運部門與一般及行政（G&A）部門。

On the operating side, year-over-year improvements of 7% in velocity and 13% in train length drove more efficient use of our train crews and rolling stock. Even with 2% volume growth, train and engine employee road starts were down 9%, while yard and local starts also fell 9%. And the level of recruits, a signal of network fluidity, dropped by 15%.

在營運面，速度年增7%與列車長度年增13%的改善，帶動我們更有效率地運用列車乘務人員與鐵路車輛。即使運量成長2%，列車與機車員工的路線開車次數仍年減9%，而調車場與地方線開車次數也年減9%。此外，作為路網流動性指標的「recruits」水準下降15%。

Shifting to mechanical. The active locomotive count was down 13%, reflecting our ability to keep over 600 locomotives in storage despite higher volumes. The smaller fleet, along with freight car repair efficiencies helped drive an 18% decrease in our mechanical craft workforce.

接著談機務。在役機車數量年減13%，反映即使運量較高，我們仍能將超過600台機車維持在封存狀態。較小的車隊規模，加上貨車維修效率提升，推動我們的機務技術人力年減18%。

We recently aligned the engineering function to the regional structure we have for mechanical and transportation, which will also yield headcount and other efficiencies moving forward.

我們近期將工程職能調整為與機務與運輸相同的區域架構，未來也將帶來人力與其他效率提升。

Our G&A headcount continues to decline as we look for every opportunity to absorb attrition.

我們的G&A人力持續下降，因為我們尋找每一個機會吸收自然流失。

Over the past year, we have eliminated unnecessary layers of management, yielding a structure that is cost-effective and enables rapid communication and decision-making across our network. MS&O expense was down 5% against the prior year. As you look at the year-over-year comparisons in MS&O, recall that we are cycling a $55 million gain from a favorable legal judgment in the second quarter of 2017.

過去一年，我們已移除不必要的管理層級，形成更具成本效益的組織架構，並能在整個路網中快速溝通與決策。MS&O費用較去年下降5%。在檢視MS&O的年對年比較時，請記得我們正逢2017年第二季因有利法律判決帶來的5,500萬美元收益之比較基期。

This year, results benefited from $37 million of real estate gains as we continue to make headway in monetizing our surplus real estate portfolio. These gains are consistent with our guidance to achieve $300 million of cumulative real estate sales through 2020.

今年的結果受惠於3,700萬美元的不動產處分收益，因為我們持續在將多餘不動產組合變現方面取得進展。這些收益與我們的指引一致：至2020年累計達成3億美元的不動產銷售。

From an operational perspective, many of the key drivers of labor expense favorability also yielded savings in MS&O in the quarter as lower asset and resource levels helped drive down MS&O expense.

從營運角度來看，許多帶動勞務費用有利差異的關鍵驅動因素，也在本季為MS&O帶來節省，因為較低的資產與資源水準有助於壓低MS&O費用。

Material savings attributed to the smaller locomotive fleet are complemented by our decision to store units that are less reliable. The decisions we've made around storage combined with additional fleet reliability efforts drove a 33% year-over-year improvement in our locomotive out-of-service measure and further reduced costs related to materials and contracted services.

較小的機車車隊所帶來的材料節省，並因我們決定封存可靠性較低的機車而相得益彰。我們在封存方面的決策，加上額外的車隊可靠性提升措施，使機車停用（out-of-service）指標年對年改善33%，並進一步降低與材料及外包服務相關的成本。

Looking at nonlabor costs associated with our train crews, the reduction in road crew starts combined with better network fluidity yielded lower hotel and taxi costs. Additionally, MS&O continues to benefit from our efforts to streamline contractors and consultants, particularly in our technology department.

就與列車乘務相關的非勞務成本而言，路線乘務開車次數下降，加上路網流動性改善，使旅館與計程車成本降低。此外，MS&O也持續受惠於我們精簡承包商與顧問的努力，特別是在科技部門。

Consistent with our prior guidance, we remain on track to reduce our total workforce by 2,000 resources by the end of 2018.

依照我們先前的指引，我們仍按計畫在2018年底前將總人力減少2,000名資源。

Looking at the other expense items. Depreciation increased slightly as the benefit of asset sales mostly offset the impact of capital investments. Yield expense was up primarily due to a 36% increase in the per-gallon price, though we were pleased to achieve record fuel efficiency in the quarter.

再看其他費用項目。折舊小幅增加，因資產出售的效益大致抵銷資本投資的影響。燃油費用上升主要是因每加侖價格上漲36%，不過我們很高興本季達成創紀錄的燃油效率。

We will continue to drive further fuel savings through continued improvement in network fluidity, train length increases and the use of fuel optimization technologies.

我們將透過持續改善路網流動性、提高列車長度，以及使用燃油最佳化技術，繼續推動進一步的燃油節省。

Higher equipment rent expense is mainly attributed to volume growth. These volume-related increases were partially offset by improving car cycle times across most markets.

設備租賃費用較高主要歸因於運量成長。這些與運量相關的增加，部分被多數市場車輛周轉時間改善所抵銷。

Equity earnings were favorable due to improved performance at our affiliates in addition to a nonrecurring benefit from an affiliate's property sale in the quarter. Given the recent strong performance, we now expect core equity earnings of affiliates up $20 million to $25 million in Q3 and Q4.

權益法投資收益表現有利，除受惠於關聯企業營運改善外，本季亦有一項來自關聯企業出售資產的一次性利益。鑑於近期強勁表現，我們目前預期第三季與第四季關聯企業核心權益法收益將增加2,000萬至2,500萬美元。

Lastly, just as a reminder, we are cycling 2017's restructuring charges. Looking below the line, interest expense increased, primarily due to the additional debt we issued earlier this year, partially offset by a lower weighted average coupon rate. Tax expense was lower year-over-year, even with higher pretax earnings given the benefits of the new lower corporate tax rate.

最後提醒一下，我們正逢2017年的重整費用之比較基期。在業外項目方面，利息費用增加，主要因我們今年稍早新增發債，部分被較低的加權平均票面利率所抵銷。即使稅前盈餘較高，受惠於新的較低公司稅率，所得稅費用仍較去年下降。

Our effective tax rate was 23.3% in the quarter, slightly lower than our prior guidance, mainly due to a onetime benefit from state legislative changes. Going forward, absent onetime events, we expect our effective rate to be around 24.5% for the back half of the year.

本季有效稅率為23.3%，略低於我們先前的指引，主要因州層級立法變更帶來一次性利益。展望未來，若不含一次性事件，我們預期下半年有效稅率約為24.5%。

Closing out the P&L, as Jim highlighted in his opening remarks, CSX delivered record operating income of nearly $1.3 billion and a record operating ratio of 58.6%.

總結損益表，如Jim在開場致詞中所強調，CSX創下接近13億美元的歷史新高營業利益，以及58.6%的歷史新高營業比率。

Turning to the cash side of the equation on Slide 10. Year-to-date capital investments are lower by 14% and keep us on track for our 3-year $4.8 billion capital target. The reduced capital intensity of the scheduled railroading model, the substantial core earnings progress detailed on the prior slide and the benefits of tax reform helped drive a nearly $600 million increase in year-to-date adjusted free cash flow.

接著看現金面，請看投影片10。年初至今資本投資下降14%，使我們持續朝三年48億美元的資本目標邁進。定期化鐵路營運模式較低的資本密集度、前一張投影片所述核心獲利的顯著進展，以及稅改效益，共同推動年初至今調整後自由現金流增加近6億美元。

Significant improvements in free cash flow generation combined with higher leverage enabled us to nearly double our shareholder returns compared to the first half of 2017. We have now completed approximately $2 billion of the current $5 billion buyback authority and remain on pace to complete the program by the end of Q1 2019.

自由現金流創造能力的顯著改善，加上較高的槓桿水準，使我們相較於2017年上半年幾乎將股東報酬倍增。目前我們已完成現行50億美元庫藏股授權中的約20億美元，並仍按進度於2019年第一季末前完成該計畫。

As we stated at our investor conference, CSX will continue to evaluate cash deployment and shareholder returns on an annual basis.

如同我們在投資人會議所述，CSX將持續以年度為基礎評估現金運用與股東報酬。

In closing, I will reiterate the 3 key priorities that drive this management team on a daily basis: ensuring the safety of our employees and communities, delivering great service for our customers and appropriately rewarding our shareholders.

最後，我要重申這個管理團隊每天推動的三項關鍵優先事項：確保員工與社區安全、為客戶提供卓越服務，以及適當回饋股東。

With that, let met turn it back to Jim for his closing remarks.

接下來，我把時間交回Jim做結語。

Great. Thanks a lot, Frank.

很好。非常感謝你，Frank。

Turning to the last slide, #12. While we've achieved a lot in a very short period of time, we are far from where I believe we can go. As many of you know, we just rolled out our trip plan compliance a few months ago. We're in the early stages of driving improvement in this metric, and there is significant opportunity there to get better.

請看最後一張投影片，第12頁。雖然我們在很短的時間內取得了很多成果，但距離我認為我們能達到的目標仍有一段路。如各位所知，我們幾個月前才剛推出行程計畫遵循（trip plan compliance）。我們仍處於推動此指標改善的早期階段，且有很大的進步空間。

Trip plans are so important as we think about delivering even better customer service and asset efficiency. It allows us to track every car and container on our network and identify at a very discrete level where we may have a problem. This allows us to know why something happened so we can react and, more importantly, fix any problems so it does not repeat.

行程計畫對於我們提供更佳客戶服務與提升資產效率至關重要。它讓我們能追蹤路網上的每一節車廂與每一個貨櫃，並在非常細緻的層級辨識可能出現問題之處。這使我們能了解事情發生的原因，以便回應，更重要的是，修正任何問題，避免再次發生。

I mentioned velocity and dwell earlier. Clearly, to be the best, we have more room to improve. On train speeds specifically, we have significant opportunity to improve as we remain below the industry leaders. Our dwell is better than the industry average, but again, there is significant runway for opportunity before we can call ourselves the best.

我先前提到速度與停留時間（dwell）。很明顯，若要成為最佳，我們仍有進一步改善的空間。就列車速度而言，我們仍低於產業領先者，因此有顯著的改善機會。我們的停留時間優於產業平均，但同樣地，在我們能稱自己為最佳之前，仍有相當大的提升空間。

Cars online continue to be a focus of this team. We are in the business of moving cars, and the more efficient we get, the less cars we need to move with the same -- to move the same volume. But turning cars faster, it also frees up capacity for us to take on additional business.

在途車輛（cars online）仍是這個團隊的重點。我們的業務是移動車輛，而效率越高，在相同運量下所需的車輛就越少——以相同運量完成運輸。但更快地周轉車輛也能釋放產能，讓我們承接更多業務。

Finally, fuel efficiency. Diesel prices are up, so this becomes even more important. There are many ways to drive improvement in this area. Fuel alone this quarter was $270 million in cost, so we are in the $1 billion run rate range for the full year. These are big dollars. From Trip Optimizer to distributed power, we will use all of these to drive improvement and lower cost.

最後是燃油效率。柴油價格上漲，因此這點變得更加重要。在這方面有許多方法可以推動改善。僅本季燃油成本就達2.70億美元，因此全年折算年化成本約在10億美元的水準。這是很大的一筆錢。從Trip Optimizer到分散式動力，我們將運用所有這些手段來推動改善並降低成本。

Now on revenue. We are raising our full year guidance from up slightly to up mid-single digits. At some investor conferences, I said we were trending to be a little better than where we thought we would be at that time of the year. This slightly higher outlook is a reflection of a number of factors, including our belief that export coal strength will continue, higher fuel prices will remain and a healthy economic backdrop.

接著談營收。我們將全年指引從小幅成長上調至中個位數成長。在一些投資人會議上，我曾表示我們的趨勢會比當時年初所預期的略好一些。這個略為上調的展望反映了多項因素，包括我們相信出口煤炭的強勢將延續、較高的燃油價格將維持，以及健康的經濟背景。

Obviously, there are factors we cannot control, mainly the economy, that can provide some variability as we get into the back half and fourth quarter specifically. But this is how we see it today.

顯然，有些我們無法控制的因素，主要是經濟情勢，可能在進入下半年、尤其是第四季時帶來一些波動。但這就是我們目前的看法。

In closing, we have shown a relentless focus on executing our business model. But let me assure you we have an eye on the horizon to develop long-term sustainable growth. Our business practices are new to CSX employees but are becoming part of our DNA as we work hard every day with the goal of becoming the best-run railroad in North America.

最後總結，我們展現了對執行商業模式的持續專注。但請相信，我們也著眼於遠方，以發展長期且可持續的成長。我們的營運作法對CSX員工而言是新的，但正逐漸成為我們DNA的一部分；我們每天努力工作，目標是成為北美營運最出色的鐵路公司。

Thank you, and I'll turn it back to Kevin.

謝謝，接下來我把時間交回給Kevin。

All right. Thank you, Jim. (Operator Instructions) Operator, we'll take the questions.

好的。謝謝你，Jim。(接線員指示) 接線員，我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Amit Mehrotra.

(接線員指示) 我們的第一個問題來自Amit Mehrotra。

Congrats on the great results. Jim, the OR, obviously, in the second quarter is below the target that you set for 2020. Fully understand the nuances and seasonality and the risks around the macro, but would it be fair to characterize the 2020 target as conservative based on what the team has achieved so far? And if so, what do you feel maybe is the structural limit of where you can take that OR over that time period?

恭喜取得很好的成果。Jim，第二季的OR（營運比率）顯然已低於你為2020年設定的目標。我完全理解其中的細節、季節性以及宏觀風險，但是否可以說，基於團隊目前達成的成果，2020年的目標其實偏保守？如果是的話，你認為在那段期間內，OR在結構上大概能降到什麼極限？

Well, over the time period, what we laid out just 3 months ago when I stood up there and said we had a target of 60% in 3 years, and I think everybody in that room kind of thought I was crazy that we'd never be able to get there. So -- and it's only -- we're only 2 quarters in. So we're not -- clearly, not changing our guidance here and what we think is achievable. And as I said, we have a lot, a lot of work to do. And we got a lot of help this quarter from coal. So if things continue to align, I continue to say I have confidence that we can hit a number, 60%, which everybody, I think, thinks is extremely, extremely impressive. So there's no change in the short period of time from what we laid out just a quarter ago.

嗯，就那段期間而言，我們在3個月前我站在那裡提出3年達到60%的目標時，我想在場每個人可能都覺得我瘋了，覺得我們不可能做到。而且現在也才過了兩個季度。所以我們當然不會在這裡改變我們的指引或我們認為可達成的目標。如我所說，我們還有非常、非常多的工作要做。而且本季煤炭也給了我們很大的助力。所以如果各項條件持續配合，我仍然有信心我們能達到60%這個數字；我想大家都認為這是非常、非常令人印象深刻的。因此，在短期內，我們不會改變我們在一個季度前所提出的內容。

Right. Okay. And just kind of related to that as my follow-up. Your comments at the end there with respect to where you are in implementing PSR and just a lot more room to go in terms of low-hanging fruit on the cost side, in particular, I would imagine. Can you just talk about where PSR is not represented in the network today? I guess, some of the new initiatives that you're taking on, specifically on the intermodal franchise in terms of implementing scheduled railroading, that strategy on that particular business, if you can talk about some of the places where it's not represented and the opportunity there more concretely in terms of reductions in dwell time or things like that, that would be great.

了解。好的。那我追問一個相關問題。你最後提到在導入PSR方面目前的進度，以及在成本端（尤其是）仍有很多低垂的果實可摘、還有很大改善空間。你能否談談目前網路中哪些地方尚未體現PSR？我想特別是你在聯運（intermodal）業務上導入定期化鐵路營運的策略與一些新措施；如果你能更具體談談哪些地方尚未體現、以及在降低停留時間（dwell time）等方面的機會，那就太好了。

One answer: intermodal. Our intermodal network needs a ton of work in order to become -- to be an efficient part of our system that it needs to be. And we are just really beginning to get in there and start to figure out how to rationalize that big part of our business so we can become much more efficient and have a much better product for our customers.

一個答案：聯運。我們的聯運網路需要大量工作，才能成為——也就是成為我們系統中應有的那種高效率組成部分。而我們才剛真正開始深入其中，著手思考如何合理化這塊龐大的業務，讓我們能更有效率，並為客戶提供更好的產品。

And is that -- should we be watching origin dwell time yields in that business? I mean, how should we monitor, looking outside, in terms of your progress there?

那麼——我們是否應該關注該業務的起點停留時間（origin dwell time）與收益率（yields）？也就是說，從外部觀察，你們的進展應該怎麼追蹤？

I mean, all of our -- yes, it'll be reflected in all of our metrics. Again, our terminal dwells are pretty good, but we have a network franchise here that, to a large degree, is dysfunctional. And it is the product of, for many, many, many, many years, CSX having a standalone intermodal entity. So we need to kind of go forward and reconfigure the franchise and make sure that it is properly and appropriately integrated into the rail company so we can achieve the benefits of operating more effectively and efficiently. So we are at the very, very early stages, a lot of work to do in that area and in every other area. As I said, yes, we had some great results, and we did that -- we're not -- we don't have the highest velocity. We don't have the lowest dwells. So we have a lot of opportunity ahead of us to get even better.

我的意思是，我們所有的——是的，這會反映在我們所有的指標上。再說一次，我們的場站停留時間（terminal dwells）相當不錯，但我們這裡的網路業務在很大程度上是失靈的。而這是多年來、很多很多很多年，CSX擁有一個獨立的聯運實體所造成的結果。因此我們需要往前推進，重新配置這個業務版圖，並確保它能正確且適當地整合進鐵路公司之中，這樣我們才能獲得更有效、更高效率營運的效益。所以我們仍處於非常、非常早期的階段，這方面以及其他每個領域都有大量工作要做。如我所說，是的，我們取得了一些很好的成果，但我們——我們的速度不是最高。我們的停留時間也不是最低。因此我們前方仍有很大的機會把表現做得更好。

Yes. It makes it seem just that fixed OR is so conservative. But I will -- those are my 2, so I'll leave it there.

是的。這讓人覺得那個固定的OR目標確實很保守。不過——以上就是我兩個問題，我就先到這裡。

Our next question comes from Ken Hoexter with Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美林（Merrill Lynch）的Ken Hoexter。

Congrats, that's a phenomenal job on the operating ratio so quickly. But Jim, I guess, on the on-time originations and arrivals, both are down year-over-year, but you noted the calculation has changed in the details, but the results were restated to conform. Why are they down given the network improvement and how everything's accelerated on the network?

恭喜，你們在這麼短時間內把營運比率做得非常出色。不過Jim，我想問關於準點始發與準點到達：兩者年比都下降，但你提到在細節上計算方式已改變，而結果也已重述以符合新口徑。在網路改善、且整體運作加速的情況下，為什麼它們仍然下降？

We're pretty comfortable -- obviously, we'd like to be better on the originations. We depart our trains pretty close to on schedule. We don't get them across the network as effectively as we should. We depart -- if we give ourselves, which we don't, but if you did, from an accounting standpoint, give yourself a couple hours of flexibility on either end, we depart in the high 90% our trains to schedule. And we get to destination, again, with that 2-hour cushion over a 3-day operating period in the 80% range. That's not acceptable. And a lot -- that always comes up with -- for a number of different reasons. And so we need to just continue to be able to work to eliminate the causes of failures. And that's why our trip plan compliance is in the kind of 60% range. We need to get that up to 100%.

我們對此相當有把握——當然，我們希望始發表現能更好。我們列車出發時間其實非常接近時刻表。但我們讓列車穿越整個網路的效率還不如應有水準。我們出發——如果從會計口徑來看，假設你在兩端各給自己幾個小時的彈性（雖然我們並沒有這麼做），那我們按時刻表出發的列車比例在90%後段。而到達目的地方面，同樣在3天的營運期間、加上那2小時緩衝的情況下，大約在80%的區間。這是不可接受的。而這——這總是會因為多種不同原因而發生。因此我們需要持續努力，消除造成失敗的原因。這也是為什麼我們的行程計畫遵循率（trip plan compliance）大概在60%左右。我們需要把它提高到100%。

And when the trains fail to arrive on time, they miss their connections and then, therefore, we're off the trip plan. So all of those things need to improve, and a lot of it has to do with culture, when people recognize that there's going to be a failure and they go above and beyond the call of duty to make sure that we get the box to make the connection on the next train, as I've said many times. What does a UPS employee do when he sees that a box is not going to get in the truck? He runs behind the truck down the road to make sure that he gets the box on the truck. Our guys kind of wave to the train, "See you later," and the car runs a day later. So it's culture, and it's all kinds of changes that we need to take place in order to get better.

而當列車無法準時到站時，他們就會錯過轉乘，因此我們的行程計畫就被打亂了。所以所有這些事情都需要改善，其中很大一部分與文化有關：當人們意識到將會發生失誤時，他們會超越職責範圍，確保我們的箱子能趕上下一班列車完成轉運——正如我已經說過很多次。當一名 UPS 員工看到有個箱子趕不上上車時，他會怎麼做？他會沿著路在卡車後面追著跑，確保把箱子放上車。我們的人則有點像是對著火車揮揮手說「回頭見」，結果那節車廂晚了一天才到。所以這是文化問題，而且我們需要發生各種改變，才能做得更好。

Wonderful. And if I can get the follow-up on pricing. Frank, you mentioned that pricing accelerated on a pure pricing basis. Are there levels you can talk to, especially given how tight the truck market is? Can be any more specific in terms of are you seeing it growing, going 100 basis, 200 basis points up, on a sequential or year-over-year basis from where you were?

太好了。我想追問一下定價。Frank，你提到在純定價層面，定價加速了。在卡車市場如此吃緊的情況下，你能談談大概的幅度嗎？能否更具體一些：你看到它是在環比或同比的基礎上，上升了 100 個基點、200 個基點，還是其他幅度？

Yes, Ken, I think, you probably know the answer to that question. I think what we're trying to help you understand is that the environment's a strong environment, and that's why we're seeing the contract renewals come in higher than the same-store sales pricing. I think the last public number we have out there is in the Q3 of 2017 at 2.2%. For merchandise and intermodal, what we can say is that we have seen sequential improvement every quarter since then in same-store sales and that the discretionary renewals in Q1 were better than that and the discretionary renewals in Q2 were better than that.

是的，Ken，我想你大概知道這個問題的答案。我們想幫助你理解的是，目前的環境很強勁，這也是為什麼我們看到合約續約的價格漲幅高於同店銷售的定價。我想我們最後一個公開的數字是 2017 年第三季的 2.2%。就商品與聯運而言，我們能說的是：自那之後，同店銷售每一季都看到環比改善，而且第一季的自主續約表現優於那個水準，第二季的自主續約也優於那個水準。

Our next question comes from Brandon Oglenski from Barclays Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 Barclays Capital 的 Brandon Oglenski。

I don't know if Mark is on the call, but I guess, for Jim or Mark, it seems the improvement here is coming maybe a bit faster as the first 2 questions kind of alluded to. I mean, does this in any way change your philosophy on the revenue outlook? I think, at the Analyst Day, you were saying, "Look, maybe we'll get a little bit of growth in '18," but obviously, you're seeing a bit more now. So is that because of the changes you've made in the network, is the market that much stronger and, now with the lower-cost basis, that changes the dynamic on focusing between price and volume at all?

我不確定 Mark 是否在線上，但我想問 Jim 或 Mark：看起來這裡的改善可能比前兩個問題所暗示的還要快一些。這在任何程度上會改變你們對營收展望的理念嗎？我記得在分析師日你們說過：「看，2018 年也許會有一點成長」，但顯然你們現在看到的更多。那這是因為你們對網路所做的改變、還是市場真的強很多？以及現在在較低成本基礎下，是否也改變了你們在價格與量之間取捨的動態？

As I said at the Investor Day and as I've said, basically, ever since I've been here, number one, I don't differentiate in the implementation of scheduled railroading that you ignore your customer and don't focus on growing the top line as you implement your operational changes. You do that at the same time. So -- and we have been working to improve the quality of our service and work with our customers to grow our business throughout the last 6 months and with, I would say, pretty favorable results and responses from our customers. They went from, when I showed up here, to hating me to now on occasion even buying me a drink. So we made great improvements in our customer relationships.

正如我在投資人日所說、也如同我基本上自從來到這裡以來一直在說的：第一，我不認同在推動「定期化鐵路營運」（scheduled railroading）的落實時，就可以忽視客戶、也不把重點放在推動營收成長上，同時進行營運變革。你必須同時做到。所以——我們在過去 6 個月一直努力提升服務品質，並與客戶合作來擴大業務；我會說，結果與客戶回饋都相當正面。他們從我剛到這裡時的討厭我，到現在偶爾甚至會請我喝一杯。所以我們在客戶關係上有很大的改善。

And so -- but I don't see a differentiation here. I also don't look at this as, "Oh, you're a price leader or a price taker." We're focused on volume. We're focused on price. We're focused on growing our business with long-term sustainable, profitable business that people recognize that we have differentiated ourselves in the marketplace, we have a better product to sell to our customers. And our customers recognize that by working with us and paying us more because we're a better-quality product, they can save money in their business. That's our strategy. That's our strategy to grow the business, and that has been our strategy since day 1 and will continue into the future.

因此——但我不認為這裡有什麼不同。我也不把這看成「你是價格領導者還是價格接受者」。我們專注於量。我們專注於價格。我們專注於以長期、可持續且具獲利性的方式來成長，讓市場認可我們已經做出差異化，我們有更好的產品可以賣給客戶。而我們的客戶也認可：與我們合作、並因為我們是更高品質的產品而付我們更多，他們可以在自身業務中省下成本。這就是我們的策略。這就是我們用來成長的策略，從第一天起就是如此，未來也會持續。

And next, we'll go to Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

接下來我們請 UBS 的 Tom Wadewitz 提問。

Great results. I'm sure everybody is going to refer to that but they are obviously very impressive. What do you think about OR in the second half? I mean, your sub-60% in second quarter probably implies numbers ought to go up in the second half. Is it pretty reasonable to think you'd be sub-60% in the second half as well? Or is there anything in terms of maybe, you know, incentive comp is a tailwind, there would be a headwind or anything else we ought to consider when we think about second-half OR relative to the really strong result in second quarter?

很棒的結果。我相信大家都會提到這點，因為確實非常亮眼。你怎麼看下半年的 OR（營運比率）？我的意思是，你們第二季低於 60%，可能意味著下半年數字應該會往上。認為下半年也能低於 60% 是否相當合理？或者在思考下半年 OR 相對於第二季這麼強的表現時，有沒有什麼因素需要考量，例如獎酬激勵（incentive comp）是順風、之後會變成逆風，或其他我們應該納入的因素？

Sure, Tom. From a seasonality standpoint, the second quarter for CSX is always the best. So one would assume that that's going to always be the best this year too. Going forward into the second half of the year, number one, the way we account for our vacation, we have a disproportionate amount of labor expense associated with vacations in the second half of the year. We have a 3% wage increase -- around 3% wage increase in the second half of the year. So those are headwinds that we have planned for and have expected all along.

當然可以，Tom。從季節性來看，第二季對 CSX 一向是最好的。所以可以推論今年也會是如此。展望下半年，第一，我們的休假會計處理方式，使得下半年與休假相關的勞動成本占比偏高。下半年我們還有約 3% 的薪資調升——大約 3% 的加薪。所以這些都是我們一直以來就已規劃並預期的逆風。

And then the most reliable variable is the weather here in the fourth quarter, which is a new phenomena for me and Mark, where you've got a hurricane in Florida and the Gulf while you're worrying about freezing rain in Atlanta and snow in Chicago and along Lake Erie. So we always seem to have weather that makes it more difficult for us to operate in the third quarter and fourth -- I mean, fourth quarter. So those are the kind of things that we look at and say it is totally rational and what we believe to be the case that our expenses in the third and fourth quarter will be higher than the second. I can tell you that they'll be lower than they were last year. How about that?

另外，最可靠的變數是第四季的天氣——這對我和 Mark 來說是個新現象：你一邊擔心佛羅里達和墨西哥灣的颶風，一邊又要擔心亞特蘭大的凍雨、芝加哥以及伊利湖沿線的降雪。所以我們似乎總會遇到讓第三季和第四季——我是說第四季——營運更困難的天氣狀況。因此我們會看這些因素並認為完全合理、也符合我們的判斷：第三季與第四季的費用會高於第二季。我可以告訴你，它們會低於去年。這樣如何？

Okay. Sure, that's fair. I appreciate the color on that. Let me ask you, also, you made a comment on the intermodal network. Seems to imply you might simplify it further. I don't know if that's accurate or not. But how do you think about the potential changes to get the intermodal network right? Is that simplifying the flow, fewer touches? Is -- and what might be the timing for that? Is that something that you can do pretty quickly? Or is that something you need to kind of plan and execute over multiple quarters and maybe you see that result in 2019?

好的。當然，這很合理。謝謝你提供這些補充說明。我也想問：你提到聯運網路。聽起來似乎暗示你們可能會進一步簡化它。我不確定這樣理解是否正確。但你們如何看待為了把聯運網路做對而可能採取的變更？是要簡化流向、減少接觸點（fewer touches）嗎？以及可能的時間點會是什麼？這是你們可以很快做到的事嗎？還是需要在多個季度中規劃並執行，並且可能在 2019 年看到成果？

I think, as I said earlier, Tom, we're just starting to really peel this back and understand what changes we need to make. Obviously, last year, I mean, it was well talked about when Hunter closed that -- changed the philosophy and got rid of the hub-and-spoke. That was about 7% of the volume that was taken off the revenue -- sorry, taken off the railroad. And at that point in time, it was my belief that a large part of that rationalization of intermodal had been accomplished. Well, that's not the case.

我認為，正如我先前所說，Tom，我們才剛開始真正把這件事一層層剝開來看，並了解我們需要做出哪些改變。顯然，去年——我是說，當 Hunter 結束那個做法——改變了理念並取消了樞紐—輻射（hub-and-spoke）模式時，這件事已經被廣泛討論過。那大約是把 7% 的運量從營收中移除——抱歉，是從鐵路上移除。而在那個時間點，我的看法是，聯運業務的大部分合理化調整已經完成。嗯，事實並非如此。

So -- but we're going to take it very methodically. We are going to have very good and open communication with our customers about what it is we're trying to accomplish. And it involves train design changes. It involves terminals and terminal -- potential terminal consolidations. And we will do this very methodically and logically and appropriately and do it being fully aware of the fact that we are looking at a peak season this year, which everybody is indicating us is going to be very strong. So we're not to do anything that's going to screw up the railroads. So if it takes a little longer than a quarter or 2, I'm fine with that.

所以——但我們會非常有條不紊地推進。我們會就我們想達成的目標，與客戶保持非常良好且開放的溝通。這涉及列車設計的變更。這涉及場站以及場站——潛在的場站整併。我們會非常有系統、合乎邏輯且恰當地去做，同時充分意識到今年我們將面臨旺季，而各方都在告訴我們旺季會非常強勁。所以我們不會做任何會把鐵路搞砸的事。因此，如果這需要比一季或兩季更久，我也完全可以接受。

Our next question comes from Chris Wetherbee of Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團（Citigroup）的 Chris Wetherbee。

Wanted to touch a little bit on sort of the revenue and volume outlooks. You're taking the revenue numbers up, I think some of that is driven by what you're saying on the other line. But how do you think about the sort of volume outlook and maybe sort of queuing up the competitive environment? You brought the OR down, arguably, a lot faster than most of us had expected. Does that open up new opportunities? Do you see some of that in the second half? How do you kind of think about those opportunities going forward?

我想稍微談一下營收與運量展望。你們上調了營收數字，我想其中一部分是受到你們在另一條業務線所提到內容的帶動。但你們如何看待運量展望，以及也許如何看待競爭環境的鋪陳？你們把營運比率（OR）降下來的速度，可以說比我們大多數人預期得快很多。這是否帶來新的機會？你們是否在下半年會看到其中一些機會？你們如何看待未來這些機會？

I believe that the operating ratio is a reflection of the efficiency of our service, which in my mind means that we continually improve the product that we offer to our customers. We are not working diligently to drive down the operating ratio so that we can be the price leader in the marketplace. So I think, as I said last time, we don't get stickers and bonus points for volume. And therefore, to the extent that we can sell our products as a superior product in the marketplace, we fully intend to do that.

我認為營運比率反映的是我們服務的效率，而在我看來，這代表我們持續改善提供給客戶的產品。我們並不是為了把營運比率壓低，好讓我們成為市場上的價格領導者而努力。所以我想，正如我上次說的，我們不會因為運量而得到貼紙或加分獎勵。因此，只要我們能把產品以市場上更優質的產品來銷售，我們完全打算這麼做。

Clearly, we have as much flexibility as we want to if there are unique opportunities in the marketplace where a customer to us is not interested in quality of service but is only interested in price and it makes sense for us, being the low-cost provider, to pursue that business, we can do that too. So we have all the flexibility in the world to pursue whatever business segments we want.

很明顯地，如果市場上出現一些特殊機會——某個客戶對我們而言並不在意服務品質、只在意價格——而且從我們作為低成本供應商的角度來看，追求那筆業務是合理的，那我們也可以去做。所以我們擁有充分的彈性，可以追求我們想要的任何業務區隔。

Our principal objective here is to be a better-run network that has a differentiated service product in the marketplace that demands a higher price for that and we can grow business at the extent of truck, which we already know the customer is paying 15% to 20% more for, so why discount your better quality product when you know you can go save the customer money by having a service that's more truck-like?

我們在這裡的主要目標，是打造一個營運得更好的網路，並在市場上提供具差異化的服務產品，讓它能夠要求更高的價格；同時，我們也能從卡車運輸那邊爭取成長——我們已經知道客戶為卡車運輸支付的費用高出 15% 到 20%，那為什麼要折價出售你更高品質的產品？既然你知道透過提供更像卡車的服務，你就能幫客戶省錢。

Okay, okay. So it sounds like there might be opportunity there on the volume side. That's helpful. And then getting a little bit more specific, when you think about export coal as we look out into the back half of the year, and I know this is a tough commodity to predict, but you've given us some help in the past as to what you expect. Any changes to sort of that high 30-million-ton number that we've talked about for 2018 as we look out to the second half?

好的，好的。所以聽起來在運量面可能會有機會。這很有幫助。然後再更具體一點，當你們展望下半年出口煤炭時——我知道這是一個很難預測的商品——但你們過去曾就你們的預期給過我們一些指引。就我們談到的 2018 年約 3,000 多萬噸（high 30-million-ton）的數字而言，展望下半年，有沒有任何變化？

Yes. In the second half, I mean, clearly, one of the reasons that we have talked now about higher volumes is because export coal has been better in the first half of the year and appears that it will be better in the second -- slightly better in the second half of the year than what we originally expected. Frank, maybe you have some further comments on that.

有。下半年，我是說，很明顯地，我們現在談到更高運量的原因之一，是因為出口煤在上半年表現更好，而且看起來下半年也會比我們原先預期的更好——下半年會略好一些。Frank，也許你可以再補充一些看法。

Yes. So we were at about 22 million tons in the first half if the framework holds, as Jim mentioned in his opening remarks and we see the indices hold at the 200 and 100 or higher on the met and the thermal index. You could see that same run rate prevail in the second half. So early to mid-40s would be probably a decent range for you.

好的。所以如果如 Jim 在開場致詞中提到的那樣，整體框架成立，而且我們看到冶金煤與動力煤指數分別維持在 200 與 100 或更高的水準，那麼上半年我們大約是 2,200 萬噸。你可能會看到下半年也維持相同的運行速率。所以大概落在 4,000 萬噸出頭到 4,000 多萬噸中段，對你來說應該是個不錯的區間。

And next, we'll go to Scott Group of Wolfe Research.

接下來我們請 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group 提問。

So I wanted to follow up on intermodal and what you've been talking about. Jim, maybe give us some perspective. Where is this OR relative to the rest of the business? Are we 1,000 basis points behind, maybe 2,000 basis points behind? If you can maybe directionally give us some color there. And once you've got it all optimized the way you want to, how close do you think intermodal margins can be to the rest of the business?

我想追問一下你們一直在談的聯運。Jim，也許請你給我們一些觀點。這個 OR 相對於其他業務處於什麼位置？我們是落後 1,000 個基點，還是可能落後 2,000 個基點？如果你能在方向上給我們一些說明就好。另外，當你把它優化到你想要的狀態後，你認為聯運的利潤率能夠接近其他業務到什麼程度？

Well, as I think I tried to portray, we have a lot of areas in intermodal where we can make improvements. And we don't ascribe the various -- the business segments in great detail in terms of what's more profitable than the other. You've been around this business long enough. You know which ones are. I can tell you, when we did this -- when I did this at CN and we got involved in -- did the same thing at CN. We fixed the merchandise business and then we went over and started fixing intermodal. And intermodal at CN was a basket case.

嗯，正如我試著表達的，聯運有很多領域我們可以改善。而我們不會非常細緻地去歸因各個——各業務區隔在獲利上誰比誰更高。你在這個產業待得夠久了。你知道哪些是哪些。我可以告訴你，當我們做這件事——當我在加拿大國家鐵路（CN）做這件事時——我們在 CN 也做了同樣的事。我們先把一般貨運（merchandise）業務修好，然後再轉過來開始修聯運。而 CN 的聯運當時是一團糟。

When we were done fixing it over a couple-year period, the average profitability of our intermodal business there was better than the corporate average. So we have -- we got a ton of work to do, and I couldn't be happier that Mark is here to do it. So -- and we'll just keep updating you. But it's going to be slow. It's going to be gradual, and it's going to be a good process that works for our customers as well.

在我們花了幾年把它修好之後，那邊聯運業務的平均獲利能力比公司整體平均還要好。所以我們——我們還有大量工作要做，而我非常高興 Mark 在這裡來做這件事。所以——我們會持續向各位更新。但這會很慢。會是循序漸進的，而且會是一個對客戶也同樣有效的良好流程。

Okay. That makes sense. And then just real quick, some number questions. The raise in the other revenue guidance, is that because customers are not changing behavior or you're rolling it out to more customers? And then do you have any way to -- $70 million of real estate in the first half, any way to put a range on what you think is realistic for second half?

好的。這很合理。然後很快問幾個數字問題。你們上調其他收入指引，是因為客戶沒有改變行為，還是你們把它推行到更多客戶？另外，上半年有 7,000 萬美元的不動產收入，下半年你們認為合理的區間大概是多少？

Scott, on the other revenue, I'd say it's 2 things: one, the behavioral changes that we're looking for, obviously, through the increases in the rates and the reduction of 3 days, it just isn't happening as quickly as maybe we thought it was 3 months ago -- was going to 3 months ago. So that's, I think, the answer on that one. We did roll out some additional policies effective July 1, so that then bleeds into the run rate there.

Scott，關於其他收入，我會說有兩個原因：第一，我們希望看到的行為改變——顯然，透過提高費率以及把天數縮短 3 天——並沒有像我們三個月前所想的那樣發生得那麼快——也就是三個月前我們以為會發生的速度。所以我想這就是那一題的答案。我們確實在 7 月 1 日起推出了一些額外政策，因此那也會反映到後續的運行速率（run rate）中。

On the real estate side, yes, you're right, we had about $70 million in the first half, so we had a good first quarter, a good second quarter. You all probably saw a line sale that was announced with Omnitrax a couple of weeks ago. That combined with some smaller transactions that we may close in the third quarter, I'd say we'll have a good third quarter, not unlike what we saw in Q1 and Q2.

在房地產方面，是的，你說得對，我們上半年大約有7,000萬美元，所以第一季表現不錯，第二季也不錯。你們大概都看到幾週前與Omnitrax宣布的一筆線路出售交易。再加上我們可能在第三季完成的一些較小交易，我會說第三季會有不錯的表現，和我們在第一季與第二季看到的情況相近。

And we will go to Brian Ossenbeck of JPMorgan.

接下來我們請摩根大通（JPMorgan）的Brian Ossenbeck提問。

Just wanted to talk about the domestic coal side first. Obviously, the volumes are challenged this quarter, remain challenged for the first half of the year. Are you seeing anything from structural competition from new gas-fired power plants, gas pipelines going further down south, especially into Florida? And do you still have the confidence that there's going to be no material retirements of coal-fired plants this year or through the next couple of years through 2020?

我想先談談國內煤炭業務。顯然，本季運量面臨挑戰，而且上半年仍然具挑戰性。你們是否看到來自結構性競爭的任何影響，例如新的燃氣發電廠、天然氣管線進一步往南延伸，特別是進入佛羅里達？另外，你們是否仍有信心，今年或未來幾年直到2020年，燃煤電廠不會出現任何重大的退役？

Brian, Frank. I think the utility story has largely stayed the same. Nat gas is $2.75-ish, which isn't all that helpful to the environment, though stockpiles in the South have come down pretty significantly. The cooling degree days are up year-over-year. We're just not seeing the burn rates go up in coal quite yet, but a lengthy hot summer and a cold winter would certainly help those. In terms of your structural competition, again, we don't know of any plant closures that are going to impact us significantly in the next couple of years that are new. Clearly, we have a couple that are going to roll off. We knew about those. We've adjusted our outlooks for those, but nothing new.

Brian，我是Frank。我認為公用事業端的情況大致維持不變。天然氣價格大約在2.75美元左右，這對整體環境並不是特別有利，不過南部的庫存已經相當明顯地下滑。冷房度日（cooling degree days）年增。我們目前還沒有看到煤炭燃燒率明顯上升，但若夏季持續炎熱、冬季寒冷，肯定會有所幫助。就你提到的結構性競爭而言，同樣地，我們不知道未來幾年內有任何新的電廠關閉會對我們造成顯著影響。當然，我們有幾個合約會到期退出。那些我們早就知道。我們也已針對那些調整了展望，但沒有新的變化。

Okay. If you can give us a quick update on the leased and licensed, I guess, the wires and pipes, the other ancillary revenues, are those things that you're starting to be able to monetize yet? Or is that something that will start to pick up in the back half or 2019?

了解。如果可以的話，請你快速更新一下租賃與授權（我想是電纜與管線等），以及其他附屬收入；這些項目你們是否已開始能夠變現？還是說要到下半年或2019年才會開始加速？

Brian, both. We've had an ongoing business of licenses and leases that utilize -- or cross over the quarter. Mark and his team have been increasing those over time and will continue to deliver and are on track to deliver the $300 million guidance that we gave you at the investor conference, over 3 years.

Brian，兩者都有。我們一直都有授權與租賃的持續性業務，利用——或跨越我們的路權。Mark和他的團隊隨時間推進一直在增加這些業務，未來也會持續交付，並且正按計畫達成我們在投資人會議上給出的3年3億美元指引。

Our next question comes from Matt Reustle of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的Matt Reustle。

You're obviously ahead of schedule on the network improvement, and that's boosted the 2018 revenue outlook. Does that also raise the potential for revenue in '19 and '20? And I guess, the real question is, does your 4% revenue CAGR target increase beyond the 2018 bump that you're guiding to now?

你們的網路改善顯然進度超前，這也推升了2018年的營收展望。這是否也提高了2019年與2020年營收的可能性？我想真正的問題是：你們4%營收年複合成長率（CAGR）的目標，是否會在目前指引的2018年這一波上調之外進一步提高？

I would say, at this point in time, no, for the 2 principal reasons that I talked about. One is one of the most significant reasons that we're looking at higher -- have looked at higher volume and revenue in the first half of the year was export coal, and one of the principal reasons we're talking about being more optimistic for the second half is because of export coal. And I don't know at this point in time if anybody could tell you what the future is beyond December 31 of '18 what export coal is going to do. So it's a little premature for us to start saying that that's going on.

我會說，就目前這個時間點，不會，原因主要有兩個，我剛剛也提到過。第一個原因是，我們之所以在上半年看到較高的運量與營收，其中一個最重要的因素是出口煤，而我們之所以對下半年更樂觀，其中一個主要原因也同樣是出口煤。但就目前而言，我不認為有人能告訴你，2018年12月31日之後出口煤會如何發展。所以我們現在就開始說那會發生什麼，還有點太早。

And at the second time, I'm -- because we are in the early stages of this network reconfiguration in intermodal, I don't know what implications that might have on revenue growth in intermodal at this time. So I'll just have to stick with, "Hey, here's what we -- where we are today, what we think the rest of this year looks like," in terms of being mid-single digits. And for now, we're in the same mode looking at '19 and '20, about where we were 3 months ago.

第二點是——因為我們正處於聯運（intermodal）網路重新配置的早期階段，我目前還不清楚這會對聯運的營收成長帶來什麼影響。所以我只能維持這樣的說法：「這是我們今天的狀況，以及我們認為今年剩餘時間會是什麼樣子」，就成長而言大約是中個位數。而就目前來看，我們對2019年與2020年的看法，仍大致與3個月前相同。

Got it. That's --

了解。那——

(multiple speakers) 3 years ago, but it was only 3 months ago.

（多位講者）是3年前，不過其實只是3個月前。

That makes a lot of sense, makes a lot of sense. And second question, just still early days on trade and tariffs, but can you talk about, high level, where you see you're business sensitive? Are you hearing or seeing anything with -- from your customers in terms of talking about adjustments relative to the tariffs? Any color on that is helpful.

這很合理，很合理。第二個問題，貿易與關稅目前仍在早期階段，但你能否從較高層次談談，你認為你們的業務對哪些部分較敏感？你是否從客戶那邊聽到或看到任何關於因應關稅而做調整的討論？任何補充說明都很有幫助。

Well, again, there's so much noise swirling around about tariffs. In terms of the specific impacts on CSX today from any kind of tariff activity, clearly, first was steel. And from a steel standpoint, both finished steel out and ore business in, we have seen some positive as a result of the U.S. steel manufacturers kicking up production. The second area where there have been some real activities involve export soybeans. Our export grain business in total is around $30 million. About 1/3 of that is soybean. And so in the grand scheme of things, in terms of soybeans going to China, it's really not a factor at all for us.

嗯，關於關稅的雜音確實很多。就目前任何關稅活動對CSX的具體影響而言，首先很明顯的是鋼鐵。從鋼鐵角度來看，不論是成品鋼外運或鐵礦石內運，隨著美國鋼鐵製造商提高產量，我們確實看到一些正面影響。第二個確實有一些實際動作的領域是出口黃豆。我們整體出口穀物業務大約是3,000萬美元。其中約1/3是黃豆。因此，從整體規模來看，黃豆出口到中國對我們而言其實完全不是因素。

And then the third area, which, again, has not had any real activity, but again, a lot of noise about it, is both NAFTA and Europe in terms of tariffs on imported autos. We are not impacted in terms of imported autos from Mexico. We would clearly watch carefully if anything were to be put on imported vehicles from Canada, but nothing has happened there yet. And in terms of European imports coming in through the East Coast ports, normally, they don't touch rail anyway. So not much of an impact at all right now. And our customers continue -- despite the fact, again, that there's much discussion that this could lead to an economic downturn, our customers seem to be -- continue to be very optimistic about the future.

第三個領域，同樣地，目前並沒有任何實質動作，但相關雜音很多，是NAFTA以及歐洲，特別是針對進口汽車的關稅。就從墨西哥進口的汽車而言，我們不受影響。如果未來對從加拿大進口的車輛採取任何措施，我們當然會密切關注，但目前還沒有發生。至於經由東岸港口進口的歐洲車，通常本來就不會使用鐵路運輸。所以目前幾乎沒有影響。而我們的客戶也持續——儘管外界有很多討論認為這可能導致經濟下行——我們的客戶似乎仍然對未來保持非常樂觀。

Our next question comes from Allison Landry of Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸（Crédit Suisse）的Allison Landry。

Maybe that was a good segue into my somewhat pessimistic question. But how are you thinking about CSX's ability to turn what have historically been fixed costs into variable costs in a downturn? And is the network at a point where if volumes dried up tomorrow, you'd still be able to generate significant OR improvement?

也許剛好可以銜接到我這個稍微悲觀的問題。在景氣下行時，你們如何看待CSX把歷來屬於固定成本的項目轉為變動成本的能力？另外，網路是否已經到了一個程度：如果明天運量突然乾涸，你們仍能夠帶來顯著的營運比率（OR）改善？

Wow, that is pessimistic, and on such a happy occasion for us here. But I'll try to deal with that, and it's not something that Frank and I don't talk about on a regular basis here, having myself been through it a couple of times, when all of a sudden, yes, your volumes just go away. And again, because of all the speculation just in the media about tariffs and trade wars and what could that -- so we're always doing recession scenarios here about what if this and what if that.

哇，這確實很悲觀，而且是在我們這裡這麼開心的場合。不過我會試著回應；而且這也不是Frank和我在這裡不會定期討論的事情，畢竟我自己也經歷過幾次那種情況——運量突然就消失了。再者，媒體對關稅、貿易戰以及可能造成什麼影響有很多揣測——所以我們一直都在做衰退情境推演：如果這樣、如果那樣會如何。

Clearly, as we get better and as we get a better handle on our operations, we will be able to more quickly respond and make appropriate adjustments to our variable costs in the event of volume decline. And you always have to -- you always have the wherewithal at your fingertips to reduce your fixed cost to a degree, meaning fixed labor. It's just how much you need to do in order to do that.

很明顯地，隨著我們做得更好、對營運掌握度更高，一旦運量下滑，我們就能更快速地回應，並對變動成本做出適當調整。而且你也總是——你手邊總有能力在一定程度上降低固定成本，也就是固定人力成本。只是取決於你需要做到什麼程度。

Depending upon what kind of an economic decline scenario you came up with, I guess, my thoughts are if we, again, assuming a severe decline, if we were able to maintain our plan and at least are the status quo, we would be able to -- we'd be doing a very good job. If it's a minor thing, then it's probably a minor thing, and we continue to stick with the program and see what we could do to make our numbers.

取決於你提出的是哪一種經濟下滑情境，我想，我的看法是，如果我們再次假設是嚴重下滑，若我們能夠維持我們的計畫，至少保持現狀，那我們就能夠——我們會做得非常好。如果只是輕微的狀況，那大概也就是小事一樁，我們就繼續堅持既定方案，看看能做些什麼來改善我們的數字。

Okay. That was helpful. And then as my follow-up, if you think about the disparity between your service metrics and your competitor, and within the context of your earlier comments about pricing for a better service product, do you expect to pull the growth lever perhaps earlier than what we saw at CP and/or CN?

好的。這很有幫助。接著作為追問，如果你思考你們的服務指標與競爭對手之間的差距，並結合你先前關於「以更好的服務產品來定價」的評論，你是否預期會比我們在 CP 和／或 CN 看到的更早去拉動成長槓桿？

Again, we never push the growth lever in the other direction. We're always in the growth mode. It was -- and again, through a lot of this, I wasn't present here, but many of the people that were work -- that worked here and Frank were, it was tough to grow when your railroad wasn't running. And products that -- cars that should have been across your network in 3 to 4 days were taking 3 to 4 weeks. So that's difficult to say, "I'm in a growth mode," at that period of time. Once the service has improved and where the service is today, we are always looking to get business from -- more business from current customers, the business back from the former customers and all of that. And -- but it is -- again, it is our philosophy that we want to be the premium service provider in the marketplace and get paid for it.

再說一次，我們從來不會把成長槓桿往相反方向推。我們一直都處在成長模式。那時——而且再說一次，在這其中很多時候我不在這裡，但許多在這裡工作的人以及 Frank 都在，當你的鐵路跑不起來時，要成長是很困難的。而那些——本該在 3 到 4 天內穿越你網路的車輛，卻要花 3 到 4 週。所以在那段期間，很難說「我在成長模式」。一旦服務改善、且達到今天的水準，我們一直都在尋求從——從現有客戶取得更多業務，把前客戶的業務爭取回來等等。而且——但這仍然是——再說一次，我們的理念是要成為市場上的高端服務供應商，並為此取得相應的報酬。

Our next question comes from David Vernon of Sanford Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Sanford Bernstein 的 David Vernon。

Jim or Frank, could you help us -- you mentioned earlier in the call that coal helped you out a little bit here in the quarter. Is there any way you can help us dimension how much coal has contributed to the year-over-year sort of profit development of the company in the first half of this year? What I'm just wondering is how much of the very, very aggressive improvement in operating income you'd chalk up to kind of PSR versus how much of it would you chalk up to help from the commodity markets.

Jim 或 Frank，你們能否幫我們——你們在電話會議前面提到，煤炭在本季對你們有一些幫助。你們能否協助我們量化一下，今年上半年煤炭對公司年對年獲利成長（或利潤變化）的貢獻大概有多少？我想知道的是，營業利益非常、非常大幅的改善，你們會把多少歸因於 PSR（精準鐵路營運），又會把多少歸因於大宗商品市場的助力。

Obviously, it's help from a lot of different areas. Precision Railroading is clearly one. When you look at the levels of efficiency that you're seeing, the headcount reductions that you're seeing, the asset reductions that you're seeing, I mean, those produce real dollars and significant dollars. If you look at the point that Jim made around export coal, just to dimensionalize it, we moved a little over 11 million tons in the second quarter of this year, and last year, we moved a little over 8 million tons. So you can get a feel for the uptick in export coal. At the same time, we saw some reduction in utility coal. So you've got to net those 2 things out. They're both good pieces of business for us. We want to move them both. But there's a whole lot more that's happening in our company other than coal. But coal is...

很明顯，這是來自許多不同面向的幫助。精準鐵路營運當然是其中之一。當你看到目前的效率水準、你看到的人力縮減、你看到的資產縮減，這些都會帶來實質且可觀的金額。如果你看 Jim 提到的出口煤，為了讓你有個量級概念，我們今年第二季運了略高於 1,100 萬噸，而去年我們運了略高於 800 萬噸。所以你可以感受到出口煤的增幅。同時，我們也看到公用事業用煤有所下降。所以你必須把這兩件事相互抵銷後來看。它們對我們來說都是不錯的業務。我們兩者都想運。但我們公司正在發生的事情遠不只煤炭。但煤炭是……

I totally agree with that, and -- but I guess, I was just wondering if there were maybe an indication you can give us for directionally how much export coal rates have moved up on a year-over-year basis in relation to domestic coal rates.

我完全同意，而且——但我想，我只是想知道，你們是否能給我們一個方向性的指標：出口煤的運價在年對年的基礎上，相對於國內煤運價，上升了多少。

Well, we generally follow the indices. We don't follow them 1:1. So when you see them -- you see the forward curves move up, generally speaking, our pricing is going to follow that, again, not 1:1. The highs on the benchmarks are going be higher than our price, and the lows on the benchmark are going to be lower than our price, but we generally are going to follow those.

嗯，我們通常會跟隨指數。我們不會 1:1 地跟隨。所以當你看到——你看到遠期曲線上移時，一般而言，我們的定價也會跟著走，但同樣不是 1:1。基準的高點會高於我們的價格，基準的低點會低於我們的價格，但我們通常會跟隨那些走勢。

When you look at it on an RPU basis, you can get a feel for what the export RPU is and what the domestic RPU is. There are times when the export's higher. There are times when the domestic's higher, but it's really going to depend on what those external benchmarks are. But again, there's a lot more happening here, and I don't want you to lose sight of that by focusing on coal.

如果你用每單位收入（RPU）的角度來看，你可以感受到出口的 RPU 與國內的 RPU 各是多少。有些時候出口較高。有些時候國內較高，但這真的取決於那些外部基準。但再說一次，這裡發生的事情多得多，我不希望你因為聚焦煤炭而忽略了這一點。

Yes, absolutely not losing sight on it. I'm just trying to get you to tell us what happened to the export coal RPU, which we're not going to get to. So maybe just...

是的，當然不會忽略。我只是想讓你告訴我們出口煤的 RPU 發生了什麼變化，而我們看來是拿不到這個資訊。所以也許就……

No. You're not going to get that from me and I'm not going to get that from Frank.

不。你不會從我這裡拿到，而且你也不會從 Frank 那裡拿到。

Well, we can always get it from the guys at Parker Host. But let me ask you a quick follow-up question, Frank. When you think about the gains you had in the MS&O from idling some of the spare locomotives, is there a chunk of that that maybe snaps back as you start to run a little bit hotter and leaner? Or is it all just pure kind of run -- you should run rate these levels on the cost side going forward?

嗯，我們總是可以從 Parker Host 的那些人那裡拿到。但我再快速追問一個問題，Frank。當你想到你們透過停放一些備用機車在 MS&O 上取得的改善，是否有一部分會在你們開始把運行拉得更熱、更精實時反彈回來？還是說，基本上都只是純粹的——你應該在成本端往後都以這個水準作為常態化（run-rate）？

Well, remember, you've got real estate in that line item. So be careful about run rating real estate on a [per-head] basis. I tried to give you some intel on Q3. But when you look at what we're doing, the smaller locomotive fleet's clearly a driver. You've got contractor and consultant eliminations which are rolling through that line. You've got, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, less hotel and taxi costs. You've got, G&A, fewer people, obviously, spend less money on the MS&O line. So as long as you're seeing those things stay the same, excluding the real estate piece, I think you can run rate those.

嗯，記住，那個科目裡包含不動產。所以要小心，不要用「每人」的基礎去把不動產做常態化推估。我試著給你一些關於第三季的資訊。但當你看我們正在做的事，更小的機車車隊規模顯然是一個驅動因素。你還有承包商與顧問的取消，這些正在反映在那條費用線上。你也有——如我在開場致詞提到的——更少的旅館與計程車費用。你有 G&A，人變少了，顯然在 MS&O 這條費用線上的支出也會更少。所以只要你看到這些因素維持不變，排除不動產那一塊，我認為你可以把那些做常態化推估。

Our next question comes from Justin Long of Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Justin Long。

Congrats on the quarter. Wanted to start and ask about headcount. Do you have any updated thoughts on where headcount will end this year? Just curious if your expectations have changed. And based on how the network has performed during the first half of 2018 and what seemed to be a better-than-expected start as it relates to volumes, is there any change in the expectation for headcount that you're targeting in 2020 as well?

恭喜本季表現。我想先從人力編制開始問。你們對今年年底的人力編制會落在哪裡，有沒有任何更新的看法？只是好奇你們的預期是否有改變。另外，基於 2018 年上半年網路的表現，以及在運量方面看起來比預期更好的開局，你們對 2020 年所鎖定的人力編制目標，是否也有任何變動？

No. In terms of this year, we're right on -- again, we're slightly ahead of where we -- the run rate to get to the 2,000 reduction, but that was planned for, as I said earlier, because of vacations and other purposes, that we would have an accelerated pace in the first half of the year. So we're right on target to hit the number for this year, and nothing has changed in terms of the number for the 3-year plan.

沒有。就今年而言，我們正好在——再說一次，我們略微領先於達成減少 2,000 人的常態化進度，但如我先前所說，這是有規劃的，因為休假和其他因素，我們在上半年會有較快的節奏。所以我們正按目標進度達成今年的數字，而三年計畫的目標數字也沒有任何改變。

Okay. That's helpful. And maybe to circle back on the increased revenue guidance for 2018 as well. Is there a way to help us think about how you would allocate this increase between, one, a better outlook for export coal and, two, a better outlook for everything else? I'm just curious if that split is 75%-25%? Or how would -- you would quantify that?

好的。這很有幫助。另外也想回到你們對2018年營收指引上調這件事。有沒有辦法幫我們理解，你們會如何在兩者之間分配這個上調：第一，出口煤的展望更好；第二，其他所有業務的展望更好？我只是好奇這個拆分會不會是75%-25%？或者你們會——你們會怎麼量化？

Without getting into the specific volume details by the various commodity groups, I'm trying to come up with a more simplistic way to answer that. I think, if you look at our coal business in the second quarter, and I think that's a relatively good run rate. Again, we had a great -- we just got done telling you we had a great second quarter with strong export demand and weak utility demand. That's kind of a norm for us for this year, but we expect that kind of run rate to continue in the second half of the year. So that will give you some guidance in terms of volume from coal, and the rest of it is going to come primarily from merchandise, which is, again, across the board.

在不深入各個商品群的具體運量細節的前提下，我試著用更簡化的方式來回答。我認為，如果你看我們第二季的煤炭業務，我覺得那是一個相對不錯的運行水準（run rate）。再說一次，我們剛剛也跟各位說了第二季表現很好，出口需求強、電力公用事業需求偏弱。這大致是我們今年的常態，但我們預期這樣的運行水準會在下半年延續。因此，這會在煤炭運量方面給你一些指引，而其餘的增量主要會來自一般貨運（merchandise），也就是說，各品類普遍都有貢獻。

All of these various commodities that I talked about, metals, forest products, blah, blah, blah, blah were all relatively strong in the second quarter. That's just a reflection of good markets and customers recognizing that we've got a good service product. And so that's kind of a, I would say that that will give you a better run rate view of what we think the top line is going to do. And then, as both Frank and I mentioned, you'd layer in continued reasonable pricing environment, continued recognition of supplemental revenues from the demurrage policies that we are now -- policies that were in existence for many, many years but now we're collecting on.

我剛才提到的各種商品——金屬、林產品等等——在第二季都相對強勁。這反映了市場狀況良好，也反映客戶認可我們提供了優質的服務產品。所以我會說，這能讓你更以運行水準的角度來看我們認為營收端（top line）會如何表現。然後，正如Frank和我都提到的，你還要再加上：合理的定價環境持續、以及我們現在開始實際收取的滯期費（demurrage）政策所帶來的補充性收入持續被認列——這些政策其實存在很多很多年了，但現在我們開始收費了。

And then thirdly, a little bit more fuel surcharge because price on fuel is going to get up. And I think the second quarter will give you a pretty good understanding of why we think that the second half of the year is going to be a little bit better than what we originally expected. Second quarter was a little bit better than we expected. I kind of started talking about that early in the quarter when I said we're going to be a titch better. And then now we came in with a 6% growth. And so if things stay the way they are right now, I think that leads us down the road of giving you a pretty good way to get to a general view of how you get to mid-single-digit top line growth for the year.

第三，因為燃油價格會上升，所以燃油附加費也會多一些。我認為第二季能讓你相當清楚地理解，為什麼我們覺得下半年會比原先預期稍微好一些。第二季確實比我們預期好一點。我在季初就有點提到過，說我們會稍微好一點點。而現在我們交出了6%的成長。所以如果目前的情況維持不變，我認為這就能讓你大致理解，我們如何推導出全年營收中個位數中段（mid-single-digit）的成長。

And our next question comes from Walter Spracklin of RBC Capital.

下一個問題來自RBC Capital的Walter Spracklin。

I want to come back, Jim, to your answer to a previous question with regards to exactly that you're -- the trends you've been noting in the back half of the year have picked up. And I think what you said in the last -- just now is that it wasn't all just due to coal. There was other factors due to better pricing and better volume in other areas.

Jim，我想回到你剛才對前一個問題的回答，也就是你提到下半年你觀察到的趨勢已經轉強。而我理解你剛剛說的是，這不完全只是因為煤炭。還有其他因素，包括其他領域更好的定價以及更好的運量。

I'm just curious as to why that wouldn't change your view into 2019. Why would it all stop as of December 31? Wouldn't there be a carryover in the first half of next year even if commissions remain that will lap easier comps that would give you a bit of better lift into next year? Just curious as to why you wouldn't expect it to continue more than just 6 months.

我只是好奇，為什麼這不會改變你對2019年的看法。為什麼會在12月31日就全部停止？即使佣金（commissions）仍然存在，明年上半年難道不會有延續效應，而且在比較基期更容易（lap easier comps）的情況下，讓你們明年有更好的拉抬嗎？只是好奇為什麼你不會預期它不只持續6個月，而是會延續更久。

For the 2 reasons I said, one, I don't have a clue what coal is going to be like in '19 and '20, and I don't know what the implications are to our intermodal franchise by some of the work we have to do there. So those -- the uncertainties surrounding those 2 big components of my business give me pause to say that, "Oh, this is the new norm for '19 and '20." I need to get a little bit further down the road this year to have a better -- more -- a clearer view of year after.

原因就是我說的兩點：第一，我完全不知道2019年和2020年的煤炭會是什麼樣子；第二，我也不知道我們在聯運（intermodal）業務上必須做的一些工作，會對我們的聯運版圖（franchise）帶來什麼影響。所以，圍繞我業務中這兩個大組成部分的不確定性，讓我不敢說：「喔，這就是2019年和2020年的新常態。」我需要在今年再往前走一段時間，才能對後一年有更好——更——更清晰的看法。

Okay. And just on the pricing environment, can you talk to us a bit about kind of the cadence in the negotiations you have now versus 1 month ago, versus 3 months ago, versus 6 months ago, particularly where trucking comes into play on your intermodal franchise or where you come head-to-head with your competitor? Are you finding that -- is there anything capacity constraints that are allowing for the movement of price to come in a little bit, well, not easy but easier that it might have 1, 3 or 6 months ago?

好的。另外就定價環境而言，你能不能跟我們談談你們現在的談判節奏，相較於1個月前、3個月前、6個月前的差異？特別是卡車運輸在你們聯運版圖中扮演角色的地方，或是你們與競爭對手正面交鋒的地方。你們是否發現——是否有任何產能限制，使得價格的上調變得稍微——嗯，不是說容易，但比1、3或6個月前更容易一些？

Well, 6 months ago, we had our hat in our hand telling everybody how sorry we were for not running a very good railroad. So the environment for us right now compared to where we were at the end of last year is dramatically different. In terms of the pricing environment and the capacity environment, it's a good time to be in the railroad business. It's a good time to be in the transportation business. Price, it's no secret that the pricing environment is strong for everybody. As I said -- and again, but as I said earlier, we are in this to grow the top line through long-term sustainable, profitable growth. Our plan in the spot market. I'm not worried about volume. I'm not worried about highway-to-rail awards, that kind of stuff. Long-term sustainable, profitable growth where we provide value to our customers and our channel partners and everybody in the marketplace is our strategy, and that is what's going to make CSX the best.

嗯，6個月前，我們還是低聲下氣地跟大家說，對於我們鐵路營運得不夠好感到很抱歉。所以，跟去年底相比，我們現在所處的環境已經截然不同。就定價環境與產能環境而言，現在是從事鐵路業務的好時機。現在也是從事運輸業務的好時機。價格方面，大家都知道，整體定價環境對所有人都很強。如我所說——而且我之前也提過——我們的目標是透過長期、可持續且有利可圖的成長來擴大營收端（top line）。我們在現貨市場（spot market）的策略。我不擔心運量。我不擔心公路轉鐵路的得標（highway-to-rail awards）之類的事情。我們的策略是長期、可持續且有利可圖的成長：為客戶、通路夥伴以及市場上的每一個人創造價值，而這也將使CSX成為最好的。

If I could sneak one last one here. In terms of when you sit down with Mark now in his new role, what do you guys talk about as your kind of objective #1? I think you alluded is that the intermodal franchise, or is there something else that you want to kind of zero in on as his #1 objective as he starts the role?

如果我可以再偷偷問最後一個問題。就你現在和Mark以他的新職務坐下來討論而言，你們會把什麼當作首要目標（objective #1）？我想你剛才暗示的是聯運版圖（intermodal franchise），還是你希望他上任後把其他事情作為他的#1目標來聚焦？

Mark is -- one of Mark's strengths and one the reasons I'm so excited about Mark taking over the job besides the fact he's a really bright guy is he's got great relationship skills, and we need to develop long-term solid relationships, again, with our customers. There's been a lot of turnover here at senior management of this company. And we hear this all the time: We don't know who to call. We don't know who you guys are. We got a whole new team there. What I'm supposed to do? Who do I call if something goes wrong? So number one, fix intermodal, but two, start build back the long-term relationships that CSX should have. And I'm totally confident that Mark's going to do an exceptional job in that area. Not to say that the guy that runs our merchandise group, Michael Rutherford, and his team aren't doing a phenomenal job in that area. But again, I know Mark, and I've been around him for a long time, and I think that's where he can do some great work for us.

Mark——Mark的優勢之一，也是我除了他非常聰明之外、對他接手這份工作感到很興奮的原因之一，是他的人際關係能力很強；而我們需要再次與客戶建立長期、穩固的關係。這家公司高階管理層的人事變動很大。我們一直聽到客戶這樣說：我們不知道該打給誰。我們不知道你們是誰。你們那邊換了一整個新團隊。我該怎麼辦？如果出了問題我該打給誰？所以第一，修復聯運；第二，開始重建CSX應該擁有的長期關係。我完全有信心Mark會在這方面做得非常出色。這並不是說負責我們一般貨運（merchandise）團隊的Michael Rutherford和他的團隊在這方面做得不夠好——他們做得非常棒。但我認識Mark，我在他身邊很久了，我認為他能在這方面為我們做出很大的貢獻。

And next, we'll go to Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

接下來我們請摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

A couple of follow-ups here. Just on the intermodal and your comments on the tons of work you still need there and eventually getting that up to an above-average margin profile. Can you just help us understand how much of that is fairly basic blocking and tackling that can be achieved pretty easily versus maybe bigger, longer term like yard automation or something?

這裡有幾個追問。先談聯運，以及你提到那邊還有很多工作要做，最終要把它提升到高於平均的利潤率水準。你能否幫我們理解一下，其中有多少是相對基礎的「基本功」就能比較容易達成的， versus 可能是更大、更長期的項目，例如場站自動化之類？

Oh, this is blocking and tackling. This is just running a good railroad. I'd like to be in a position where we were running so well that we could start to look at ways to adopt the new technologies to help us run things better. We're a long way from that. This is just basic core fixing a bunch of broken windows.

喔，這就是基本功。這就是把鐵路營運做好。我希望我們能把營運做到非常好，然後才開始看有哪些新技術可以採用，幫助我們把事情做得更好。我們離那個狀態還很遠。這就是核心基本面：把一堆「破窗」先修好。

All right. Understood. And just a follow-up on IM. When you think of auto as an end market, is that primarily in your autos' volumes, or do you also have smaller auto components or something running through intermodal?

好的。了解。再追問一下聯運。當你把汽車視為終端市場時，這主要反映在你們汽車運量上，還是你們也有較小的汽車零組件或其他貨物透過聯運運輸？

We have auto parts. We have auto parts in our intermodal, especially imported parts. And we have auto parts in boxcars and merchandise service, racks, frames, et cetera. But the primary volumes are in finished vehicles that are moving in trilevels and bilevels.

我們有汽車零件。我們的聯運裡有汽車零件，尤其是進口零件。我們在棚車與一般貨運服務裡也有汽車零件，像是車架、車身骨架等等。但主要運量是成車，使用三層與雙層車輛運輸。

Got it. Is there any way to quantify your overall autos exposure in terms of volumes kind of combined across segments?

了解。有沒有辦法量化你們整體汽車曝險（以運量計），也就是跨各個業務區塊合併來看？

We could -- not off the top of my head. But if you get back with Kevin, we can see if we can try to come up with some way for you to help -- some percentage for every vehicle, how much moves and kind of a general percentage, for every finished vehicle, how -- what's the percentage of a car kind of a thing. We might be able to come up with something that can give you guidance on that.

我們可以——但我現在一時想不起來。不過你可以再跟 Kevin 聯繫，我們看看能不能想個方式幫你——例如每輛車有多少比例是透過我們運輸、或是針對每輛成車大概有多少比例會移動之類的概略百分比。我們或許能整理出一些指引給你。

Our next question comes from Benjamin Hartford of Robert W. Baird.

下一題來自 Robert W. Baird 的 Benjamin Hartford。

Real quick, Jim, what are -- in the context of intermodal and the work that needs to be done there as you think about the back half of '18 and through '19, whatever the plan may end up being in terms of volume growth, what do you think the box count needs within UMAX specifically are going to be to support growth? Will it grow in line with volumes? Or is there enough opportunity as you work through that network and improve velocity that perhaps that fleet size does not need to grow to be able to satisfy volume growth targets?

很快問一下，Jim，就聯運以及那邊需要完成的工作而言，當你看 2018 年下半年到 2019 年（不論最終計畫在運量成長上會怎麼定），你認為 UMAX 尤其需要多少箱量（box count）才能支撐成長？它會跟著運量同步成長嗎？還是說，隨著你們梳理網路並提升周轉速度，其實車隊規模不需要成長，也能滿足運量成長目標？

Yes. Under the current scenario, I don't anticipate us making any investments in boxes for UMAX.

是的。在目前情境下，我不預期我們會對 UMAX 的箱體做任何投資。

Our next question comes from of Bascome Majors of Susquehanna International.

下一題來自 Susquehanna International 的 Bascome Majors。

Frank, years ago in the prior regime, you guys used to make some directional comments around the profitability of different commodity groups. I know putting hard numbers to that was declined earlier on this call. But I am curious, with the overall profitability of the franchise moving up in 12, 13 points in less than 2 years here, has the directional sort of contribution of the various revenue groups that you do, has that changed dramatically? I'm just curious if we're kind of in a new game as to -- versus the historic playbook of what's the best business for you and what's not.

Frank，多年前在前一個管理團隊時期，你們曾對不同商品群的獲利能力做過一些方向性的評論。我知道在這通電話稍早，你們拒絕提供硬數字。但我很好奇：在不到兩年的時間裡，整體特許經營（franchise）的獲利能力提升了 12、13 個百分點之後，你們各個營收群組的方向性貢獻是否有出現劇烈變化？我想了解的是：相較於過去的「劇本」——什麼是你們最好的生意、什麼不是——我們是否已經進入一個新局？

So back of the -- a rising tide lifts all boats clearly. In a good pricing environment and a good efficiency environment, you're going to expand your margins. When we look at the rack and stack of profitability, I could show you intermodal moves that are at the top and I could show you coal moves that are more toward the bottom, and merchandise runs in the same spectrum. So we've got a good portfolio of business. Obviously, when you say a 58.6% operating ratio across, that portfolio must be pretty good, and we're going to continue to optimize and drive that long-term profitable growth that Jim mentioned.

簡單說，水漲船高，確實如此。在良好的定價環境與良好的效率環境下，你的利潤率就會擴張。當我們看獲利能力的排序，我可以給你看一些聯運運輸是在最上面，也可以給你看一些煤炭運輸更偏向底部，而一般貨運（merchandise）也落在同一個光譜中。所以我們的業務組合很不錯。顯然，當你整體的營業比率是 58.6%，這個組合一定相當不錯；我們也會持續最佳化，並推動 Jim 提到的長期獲利性成長。

And next question comes from Cherilyn Radbourne of TD Securities.

下一題來自 TD Securities 的 Cherilyn Radbourne。

Just wondering if you could speak to some of the mix dynamics in the quarter. RTMs up 7% versus 2% carload growth would suggest a pretty big shift. So maybe you could just give us some color there.

想請你談談本季的一些組合（mix）動態。RTMs 成長 7%，而車載量（carload）只成長 2%，這看起來代表相當大的變化。所以也許你可以提供一些說明。

Ton miles up 7%, Frank?

噸英里成長 7%，Frank？

So I think what you're seeing is what we did at some of the network changes last year. As we closed terminals, et cetera, we probably introduced some out-of-route miles, and we're now pulling those down pretty significantly. Ed and his team are working on that. I think you'll see that continue to come down in that disparity that you mentioned, I think, will get a lot closer as we go forward.

我認為你看到的是我們去年做的一些網路調整所造成的結果。當我們關閉場站等等時，可能引入了一些繞路里程，而我們現在正大幅把那些降下來。Ed 和他的團隊正在處理這件事。我想你會看到這個趨勢持續下降，而你提到的那個差距，我認為未來會縮小很多。

Okay. And then maybe just a quick follow-up on the whole intermodal discussion. As you continue to reposition that network, do you continue to be able to leverage the benefits of a hot trucking market from a volume enterprising standpoint?

好的。再就整個聯運的討論快速追問一下。當你們持續重新定位那個網路時，從爭取運量的角度，你們是否仍能持續受惠於卡車市場吃緊所帶來的優勢？

A good time to be in the railroad business, and it's even a better time to be in the railroad intermodal business. So yes. Just take a look, as I said earlier, we took 7% of our business off in the network last year, and we're flat today. So people are looking for capacity. We want to be able to provide that service and capacity to our customers. We just want to make sure that we have a rational footprint of an intermodal network when we are going into the marketplace and selling a product to our customers. And that's just going to take us some time to straighten that out, and then we are going to be back there doing whatever we can help out the -- again, our channel partners, principally, who work with us, to who want to use intermodal to reduce their costs as well as the growth that's coming with some of our other partners as their volumes grow enormously with the growth of e-commerce. So this is a good time for us to be here. We just need to make sure we fix it, and that's what we're embarking upon doing. And look at what we've done already with the company in terms of making improvements. And this is just one more area where we're going to take all of our efforts and initiatives and tap into the brainpower of guys like Wallace and Harris and make intermodal a huge franchise.

現在是做鐵路生意的好時機，而做鐵路聯運更是更好的時機。所以答案是肯定的。你看，我之前提過，我們去年在網路上把 7% 的業務拿掉，而今天我們是持平的。所以大家都在找運能。我們希望能為客戶提供那樣的服務與運能。我們只是要確保，當我們走向市場、向客戶銷售產品時，我們的聯運網路版圖是合理的。這需要一些時間把它理順；之後我們會回到市場上，盡我們所能協助——再次強調，主要是與我們合作的通路夥伴——他們希望使用聯運來降低成本；同時，隨著電子商務成長帶動部分其他夥伴的運量大幅增加，也會帶來成長。所以對我們而言，現在是個好時機。我們只是需要確保把它修好，而這正是我們正在著手做的事。也看看我們在公司層面已經做了哪些改善。而這只是我們將投入所有努力與倡議、並運用像 Wallace 和 Harris 這些人的腦力，讓聯運成為一個龐大特許經營的另一個領域。

Amber, I think that wraps up the queue. And I would like to thank everybody for joining the call, and I'm available for calls afterwards. Thanks.

Amber，我想這就是所有提問了。也感謝各位參與這通電話會議，我在會後也可以接聽來電。謝謝。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。您可以掛斷線路。