CSX Corporation (CSX) 2019 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CSX Corporation First Quarter 2019 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) For opening remarks and introduction, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Bill Slater, Chief Investor Relations Officer for CSX Corporation. Sir, you may go ahead.

各位女士、先生們，下午好，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2019 年第一季財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。(接線員指示) 接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話交給 CSX Corporation 投資人關係長 Bill Slater 先生。先生，請開始。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me on today's call is Jim Foote, President and Chief Executive Officer; Frank Lonegro, Chief Financial Officer; and Mark Wallace, Executive Vice President of Sales and Marketing. On Slide 2 is our forward-looking disclosure followed by our non-GAAP disclosure on Slide 3. With that, it is my pleasure to introduce President and Chief Executive Officer, Jim Foote.

謝謝，各位下午好。今天與我一同參與電話會議的有：總裁兼執行長 Jim Foote；財務長 Frank Lonegro；以及銷售與行銷執行副總裁 Mark Wallace。投影片第 2 頁為我們的前瞻性聲明揭露，投影片第 3 頁為非 GAAP 揭露。接下來，我很高興介紹總裁兼執行長 Jim Foote。

Thanks, Bill, and thank you all for joining us today. As you know, Kevin Boone is taking on new responsibilities, and I'd first like to thank him for the great job he did in leading our Investor Relations effort and for helping me directly over the last 15 months. We are happy that Bill Slater decided to join CSX, and with his experience on the buy side and in private equity, he will be a great addition to the team.

謝謝你，Bill，也謝謝各位今天加入我們。如各位所知，Kevin Boone 正在承擔新的職責；我首先要感謝他在領導我們投資人關係工作方面的出色表現，以及過去 15 個月對我本人的直接協助。我們很高興 Bill Slater 決定加入 CSX；憑藉他在買方與私募股權方面的經驗，他將是團隊的絕佳助力。

As for the quarter, solid performance across many measures produced both record financial results and record service. I want to thank all of the CSX employees, especially those in the field for their hard work in keeping the railroad running on-time during difficult weather condition. Despite the challenging condition, CSX set new records in Q1 for just about every service metric. While we are all proud of these accomplishments, nobody is resting on that success.

就本季而言，多項指標的穩健表現帶來了創紀錄的財務成果與創紀錄的服務表現。我要感謝所有 CSX 員工，特別是第一線同仁，在艱困天候條件下仍努力維持鐵路準點運行。儘管環境充滿挑戰，CSX 在第一季幾乎所有服務指標上都創下新紀錄。雖然我們都為這些成就感到自豪，但沒有人會因此而自滿。

I'd also like to add a little more detail on the recent appointment of Kevin to Vice President of Marketing and Strategy; and Arthur Adams to Vice President of Sales and Customer Engagement. Both report to Mark in the expanded sales and marketing organization and are part of the continuing effort to build a highly skilled team focused on finding creative ways to address our customers' key transportation needs and drive profitable sustained growth.

我也想就近期的人事任命補充一些細節：Kevin 出任行銷與策略副總裁；Arthur Adams 出任銷售與客戶互動副總裁。兩人皆向 Mark 匯報，隸屬於擴編後的銷售與行銷組織；這也是我們持續打造高技能團隊的一部分，專注以創新方式滿足客戶關鍵運輸需求，並推動具獲利性的長期成長。

Kevin will develop and lead a group focused on utilizing deep research and analytics to identify and advance new business opportunity and high-priority growth initiatives across our merchandise markets. Arthur, who's our head of marketing services, is leading the transformation of customer service operations and e-solutions in addition to directing our TRANSFLO operations and he's adding an expanded team targeting small- and medium-sized customers to his responsibilities. His initial area of focus will also be the merchandise segment. Both Kevin and Arthur will do a great job for us and ultimately our shareholders.

Kevin 將建立並領導一個團隊，運用深入研究與分析來辨識並推進新的商機，以及在我們一般貨運市場中具高優先順序的成長計畫。Arthur 目前是行銷服務主管，除負責 TRANSFLO 營運外，也將領導客戶服務營運與電子解決方案（e-solutions）的轉型；同時，他的職責將新增一個擴編團隊，鎖定中小型客戶。他初期的重點領域也將放在一般貨運部門。Kevin 與 Arthur 都會為我們、並最終為股東帶來卓越成果。

Now let's get to the presentation, Slide 5, and start with our results. The results are once again straightforward with only a few small unique items that Frank will point out. First quarter EPS increased 31% to $1.02 versus last year's figure of $0.78. Our Q1 operating ratio improved by 420 basis points to 59.5%, a new first quarter record for the company.

現在我們進入簡報，請看投影片第 5 頁，先從業績結果開始。本次結果同樣相當清楚，僅有少數幾個小型且較特殊的項目，Frank 稍後會指出。第一季每股盈餘（EPS）較去年 $0.78 成長 31% 至 $1.02。我們第一季營業比率改善 420 個基點至 59.5%，創下公司第一季新紀錄。

Turning to Slide 6, you could see there was broad strength across our merchandise and coal businesses, partially offset by the impact of changes in certain intermodal business segments. Our top line increased 5% to over $3 billion. Merchandise volumes, pricing, other revenue and fuel recovery all contributed to growth. I'm encouraged by the strong performance of our merchandise business with 6% overall revenue growth. Merchandise volume growth of 3% is the result of positive growth across every market, with the exception of fertilizer, which was slower, primarily due to the impact of difficult weather conditions, which delayed spring applications.

接著看投影片第 6 頁，可以看到一般貨運與煤炭業務普遍強勁，部分被特定聯運業務區塊變動的影響所抵銷。我們的營收年增 5% 至超過 30 億美元。一般貨運的運量、定價、其他收入與燃油回收（fuel recovery）皆對成長有所貢獻。一般貨運業務整體營收成長 6%，其強勁表現令我備受鼓舞。一般貨運運量成長 3%，來自除化肥以外各市場的正向成長；化肥較為疲弱，主要因惡劣天候影響，導致春季施用延後。

The continuing turnaround in our merchandise business is, without a doubt, the result of our improved service levels. Despite continued growth in the international segment, intermodal revenue declined by 5% on 5% lower volumes due to the additional land rationalizations implemented following peak season.

我們一般貨運業務持續好轉，毫無疑問是改善服務水準的成果。儘管國際業務區塊持續成長，聯運營收仍因運量下滑 5% 而下降 5%，原因是旺季過後實施了額外的陸運路線精簡（land rationalizations）。

Coal revenue increased 7% as strength in domestic steel and industrial markets, combined with growth in export coal, more than offset domestic utility declines. Finally, growth in other revenue is primarily the result of a settlement of a customer contract dispute. Excluding this impact, other revenue would have been flat versus last year.

煤炭營收成長 7%；國內鋼鐵與工業市場的強勁表現，加上出口煤炭成長，足以抵銷國內公用事業需求下滑。最後，其他收入的成長主要來自一項客戶合約爭議的和解。若排除此影響，其他收入將與去年持平。

On Slide 7, let's review our safety performance. The safety of our employees remains my top priority and we are getting better. As you can see in the charts, we achieved significant reductions in FRA personnel injuries and train accidents both sequentially and year-over-year. While this progress is encouraging and we may be the best in the industry this year, I can tell you that we will never be satisfied with our performance if one of our employees gets injured or killed while at work. It is just unacceptable.

在投影片第 7 頁，我們回顧安全表現。員工安全仍是我的首要優先事項，而且我們正在持續改善。如圖表所示，我們在 FRA 人員受傷與列車事故方面，無論與前一季相比或與去年同期相比，都大幅下降。雖然這樣的進展令人鼓舞，而且今年我們可能是業界最佳，但我可以告訴各位，只要有任何一位員工在工作中受傷或喪生，我們就永遠不會對表現感到滿意。這是完全不可接受的。

Turning to Slide 8, let's take a quick look at just a few examples of the areas of improved operating performance. On the service side, velocity and dwell both improved sequentially and year-over-year to reach new record levels for the company. And our more fluid network allows us to get more out of our assets and increase efficiency. In total, relative to the first quarter, we reduced the number of cars online 10% and gross ton miles per available horsepower improved 9%.

接著看投影片第 8 頁，我們快速看幾個營運表現改善的例子。在服務面，速度（velocity）與停留時間（dwell）相較前一季與去年同期皆有所改善，並達到公司新的紀錄水準。而更順暢的路網讓我們能更充分運用資產並提升效率。整體而言，相較第一季初期，我們將線上車輛數（cars online）降低 10%，每可用馬力的總噸英里（gross ton miles per available horsepower）提升 9%。

With that, I'll hand it over to Frank who will take you through the financials.

接下來我把時間交給 Frank，由他帶各位檢視財務表現。

Thank you, Jim, and good afternoon, everyone. Turning to Slide 10, I'll walk you through the highlights of the summary income statement. As Jim mentioned, total revenue is up 5% in the first quarter, driven by strong pricing gains, favorable traffic mix, increased other revenue and higher fuel recoveries.

謝謝你，Jim，各位下午好。請看投影片第 10 頁，我將帶各位了解綜合損益表的重點。如 Jim 所提到，第一季總營收成長 5%，主要由強勁的定價提升、有利的運量組合、其他收入增加以及更高的燃油回收所帶動。

Moving to expenses. Total operating expenses were 2% lower in the first quarter. Labor and fringe expense was down 3% as average employee headcount was 5% lower on volumes similar to last year. Continued refinement of the operating plan and our ongoing focus on trip plan compliance with the year-over-year improvements in velocity and on-time arrivals. CSX operated significantly fewer active trains at higher performance levels, leading to reduced road crew starts and savings in ancillary crew costs such as crew balancing expense.

接著看費用。第一季總營業費用年減 2%。人事與附帶福利費用年減 3%，因平均員工人數在運量與去年相近的情況下年減 5%。我們持續精進營運計畫，並持續聚焦行程計畫遵循（trip plan compliance），同時速度與準點到達率較去年同期改善。CSX 以更高的績效水準運行顯著更少的在役列車，因而降低路線乘務啟動次數（road crew starts），並在乘務平衡等附帶乘務成本上節省費用。

In addition, nonproductive recrews and road crew overtime, indicators of network fluidity, improved significantly year-over-year. These favorable operating results enabled a 7% year-over-year decline in the active train and engine employee base and drove an 8% improvement in crew utilization as measured by gross ton miles per active train and engine employee.

此外，非生產性的重新派班（recrews）與路線乘務加班（road crew overtime）等路網流動性指標，較去年同期顯著改善。這些有利的營運成果使在役列車與機車員工基數年減 7%，並推動乘務使用效率提升 8%，其衡量方式為每位在役列車與機車員工的總噸英里（gross ton miles per active train and engine employee）。

Shifting to the mechanical side, the active locomotive count was down 10% year-over-year and over 600 locomotives are currently in storage. The total active locomotive count is now down over 1,200 units since the end of 2016. The small locomotive fleet, combined with fewer cars online and freight car repair efficiencies, helped drive an 8% year-over-year decrease in our mechanical craft workforce. Regarding our total workforce, which includes management and union employees as well as contractors and consultants, we achieved reductions of nearly 500 resources in the first quarter versus the end of 2018 benchmark. Improved service, a more fluid network and fewer assets in operation, together with opportunistic streamlining in our support functions, continued to drive labor productivity. As discussed on our fourth quarter call, we expect to absorb normal levels of attrition this year, and our first quarter results indicate we are on track to meet that goal.

轉到機務面，營運中的機車數量年減10%，目前有超過600輛機車處於封存狀態。自2016年底以來，營運中的機車總數已減少超過1,200輛。較小的機車車隊，加上線上車輛減少以及貨車維修效率提升，帶動我們機務技術工種人力年減8%。就我們的總人力而言（包含管理層與工會員工，以及承包商與顧問），第一季相較於2018年底基準，資源減少近500人。服務改善、網路更順暢以及投入運作的資產減少，再加上我們支援職能的機會性精簡，持續推動勞動生產力提升。如同我們在第四季電話會議中所討論的，我們預期今年將吸收正常水準的人員自然流失，而第一季結果顯示我們正按計畫達成該目標。

During the quarter, we also recognized railroad retirement tax refunds related to relocation reimbursements from prior years. We do not expect any additional recoveries going forward. MS&O expense improved 1% versus the prior year. Lower intermodal volumes resulting from previously announced land rationalizations drove reduced expense including terminal, trucking and other freight handling costs.

本季我們也認列了與前幾年搬遷補償相關的鐵路退休稅退稅。我們預期未來不會再有任何額外回收。MS&O費用較去年改善1%。先前已宣布的聯運路線精簡導致聯運量下降，帶動費用降低，包括場站、卡車運輸及其他貨物裝卸成本。

We continue to see efficiencies attributed to our lower active locomotive count driving savings in materials and contracted services. Train accident costs were also favorable in the quarter. Real estate and line sale gains were $5 million lower in the first quarter versus the prior year. We are making good progress against our 3-year $300 million cumulative real estate sales target and continue to see a strong pipeline of real estate sales and line sale opportunities, though the impact of these transactions will remain uneven from quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year.

我們持續看到因營運中機車數量較低所帶來的效率，進而在材料與外包服務方面產生節省。本季列車事故成本也呈現有利。第一季不動產與路線出售收益較去年同期少500萬美元。我們在三年累計3億美元的不動產出售目標上進展良好，且持續看到強勁的不動產出售與路線出售機會管線；不過，這些交易對業績的影響在季度間與年度間仍將不均衡。

Looking at the other expense items. Depreciation increased 2% due to the impact of a larger net asset base. Fuel expense was down 9% year-over-year, driven primarily by a 5% decrease in the per-gallon price and further aided by efficiency. Our enhanced focus on utilization of distributed power and energy management software, combined with train handing rules compliance, drove record first quarter fuel efficiency.

再看其他費用項目。折舊因淨資產基礎較大之影響而增加2%。燃料費用年減9%，主要由每加侖價格下降5%所帶動，並進一步受效率提升助益。我們更聚焦於分散式動力與能源管理軟體的使用，再加上遵循列車操控規範，推動第一季燃油效率創下紀錄。

Specifically, in this year's first quarter, we utilized 1.9 million fewer gallons due to the similar level of gross ton miles. Equipment rents expense decreased 1% driven by improved car cycle times in automotive, merchandise and intermodal. Equity earnings decreased $6 million in the quarter primarily due to state and federal tax true-ups at our affiliates. We would expect this line item to be approximately $25 million per quarter, absent unique items.

具體而言，今年第一季在總噸英里（gross ton miles）水準相近的情況下，我們少用190萬加侖燃油。設備租賃費用因汽車、一般貨運與聯運的車輛周轉時間改善而下降1%。本季權益法收益減少600萬美元，主要由於我們關聯企業進行州與聯邦稅務調整（true-ups）。若不計一次性項目，我們預期此項目每季約為2,500萬美元。

Looking below the line, interest expense increased primarily due to higher debt balances, partially offset by a lower weighted average coupon rate. The effective tax rate in the quarter was 21.6%, reflecting benefits related to stock option exercises and divesting of other equity awards as well as the settling of state tax matters. Absent unique items, we would expect an effective tax rate of approximately 24.5% for the remaining 3 quarters.

再看線下項目，利息費用增加主要因債務餘額較高，部分被較低的加權平均票面利率所抵銷。本季有效稅率為21.6%，反映與員工認股權行使及其他股權獎酬處分相關的利益，以及州稅事項結案的影響。若不計一次性項目，我們預期剩餘三個季度的有效稅率約為24.5%。

Closing out the P&L. As Jim highlighted in his opening remarks, CSX delivered operating income of $1.2 billion, first quarter record operating ratio of 59.5% and earnings per share of $1.02, representing improvements of 17%, 420 basis points and 31%, respectively, year-over-year.

最後總結損益表。如Jim在開場致詞中所強調，CSX實現營業利益12億美元、第一季創紀錄的營業比率59.5%，以及每股盈餘1.02美元，分別較去年同期改善17%、420個基點與31%。

Turning to the cash side of the equation on Slide 11. Capital investment was relatively flat year-over-year. We continue to invest in our core track infrastructure to provide safe and reliable train operations. Overall, our reduced asset intensity, especially in rolling stock, has enabled us to sustain lower levels of capital investment without compromising safety or reliability. The level of PTC spending has also come down significantly in the last 2 years.

接著看第11頁投影片的現金面。資本投資與去年同期大致持平。我們持續投資於核心軌道基礎設施，以提供安全且可靠的列車營運。整體而言，我們降低資產密度，尤其在車輛方面，使我們能在不犧牲安全或可靠性的前提下，維持較低水準的資本投資。過去兩年PTC支出水準也顯著下降。

Growth in CSX's core operating cash flow generation drove a 33% increase in adjusted free cash flow in the first quarter. The company converted net income to free cash at more than 100% during the quarter. Similar to last year's first quarter, we returned approximately $1 billion to shareholders, including approximately $800 million in buybacks and $200 million in dividends.

CSX核心營運現金流的成長，帶動第一季調整後自由現金流增加33%。本季公司將淨利轉換為自由現金流的比例超過100%。與去年第一季類似，我們向股東回饋約10億美元，其中約8億美元為庫藏股回購、2億美元為股利。

In the quarter, we completed the prior share buyback authorization and began purchasing shares as part of the new $5 billion program we announced in January. Our share buyback activity in the quarter netted an average repurchase price of roughly $69 per share. Dividend payments in the quarter reflected 9% increase from $0.22 to $0.24 per share we announced in February of this year, net of a lower share count. With that, let me turn it back to Jim for his closing remarks.

本季我們完成先前的股票回購授權，並開始依據我們在1月宣布的新50億美元計畫買回股票。本季回購活動的平均回購價格約為每股69美元。本季股利支付反映我們於今年2月宣布每股股利由0.22美元提高至0.24美元、增幅9%，並已考量股數減少的影響。接下來我把時間交回Jim作結語。

Great. Thank you, Frank. Turning to Slide 13, I'd like to wrap things up by reiterating our outlook for the year. Very little has changed with our view of revenue performance so we are still expecting full year growth in the low single-digit range. We expect growth to come from merchandise, the core of our franchise.

很好。謝謝你，Frank。翻到第13頁投影片，我想重申我們對今年的展望，作為總結。我們對營收表現的看法幾乎沒有改變，因此仍預期全年成長落在低個位數區間。我們預期成長將來自一般貨運（merchandise），也就是我們業務的核心。

Intermodal revenues are expected to remain muted as we work our way through the impact of intermodal lane rationalizations. And the outlook for coal looks, as expected, softer later this year as thermal benchmark prices moderate and gas prices remain low. The top line outlook, of course, remains dependent on underlying economic conditions. We are diligently monitoring our markets and are in constant dialogue with our customers. But generally, end market demand remains stable.

在我們逐步消化聯運路線精簡的影響之際，聯運營收預期仍將偏弱。而煤炭展望如預期在今年稍晚轉弱，因為動力煤基準價格趨於溫和且天然氣價格維持低檔。當然，營收端展望仍取決於基本經濟狀況。我們正密切監測市場，並與客戶保持持續對話。但整體而言，終端市場需求仍然穩定。

Additionally, we are maintaining our full year operating ratio guidance of below 60% as well as our $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion CapEx outlook. The efficiency reflected in our operating costs also translates to the capital side of the business, and we are able to do more work on the network at lower cost. Efficiency also creates additional network capacity, which allows us to maintain an efficient capital spending program. We are, in fact, investing in the core infrastructure of the railroad at above our historical average rates. This quarter reflects the strength of our operating model as we are able to more efficiently manage our business through what is traditionally our most challenging operating quarter while still improving customer service.

此外，我們維持全年營業比率指引低於60%，以及資本支出（CapEx）16億至17億美元的展望。營運成本所反映的效率也延伸到資本面，使我們能以更低成本在網路上完成更多工作。效率也創造額外的網路容量，讓我們得以維持高效率的資本支出計畫。事實上，我們對鐵路核心基礎設施的投資高於歷史平均水準。本季反映我們營運模式的強韌性：即使在傳統上最具挑戰的營運季度，我們仍能更有效率地管理業務，同時改善客戶服務。

CSX is an exceptional company with an extraordinary heritage. Our transformation to becoming the best-run railroad in North America is beginning to find traction. The railroad is running better but we can still make many improvements. We are continuously looking for new ways to serve our customers and eliminate bureaucracy that slows us down. We are working hard every day to make CSX the best run railroad in North America.

CSX是一家卓越的公司，擁有非凡的傳承。我們轉型成為北美營運最佳的鐵路公司，正開始取得進展。鐵路營運表現更好，但我們仍可做出許多改進。我們持續尋找新方法來服務客戶，並消除拖慢我們的官僚流程。我們每天都努力讓CSX成為北美營運最佳的鐵路公司。

With that, thank you, and I'll turn it back to Bill.

就到這裡，謝謝各位，我把時間交回Bill。

Thank you, Jim. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你，Jim。（接線員指示）

(Operator Instructions) Allison Landry from Credit Suisse.

（接線員指示）來自瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）的Allison Landry。

Good job on the quarter. I guess not to start out with a negative question but in terms of export coal and where API2 prices are currently trending, could you maybe tell us what percent of the overall book for export is under contract and when those might roll off?

本季表現很不錯。我想先不以負面問題開場，但就出口煤以及目前 API2 價格走勢而言，您能否告訴我們出口整體業務組合中有多少比例是已簽約的，以及這些合約大概何時會到期（或陸續到期）？

Yes. So it's Mark. So we got about 90% of our total export tons locked in for the year. So as I think I said back 3 months ago, last year, we did about 43 million export tons. We expect to be in the low 40s for this year.

是的。我是 Mark。我們今年大約有 90% 的出口總噸數已鎖定（簽約）。如同我大概在 3 個月前提過，去年我們出口約 4,300 萬噸。我們預期今年會在 4,000 萬噸出頭（low 40s）。

Okay. And then on the intermodal network redesign, is there a way to think about the delta between the profitability of legacy franchise and where you think ultimately you can take the margins, whether that's this year or 2020 or whatever? But could that be enough to insulate consolidated margins in a flat or declining revenue scenario?

好的。再來關於聯運（intermodal）網路重設，有沒有一種方式可以思考傳統既有業務（legacy franchise）的獲利能力，與您認為最終可達到的利潤率之間的差距（delta），不論是在今年、2020 年或其他時間？在營收持平或下滑的情境下，這是否足以保護合併後的利潤率不受影響？

Listen, I think we're clearly pleased with the progress we're making on the intermodal changes that we announced. We all know that combined with the changes that we announced in October of last year and then again in January, we took out about 8% of our volumes. I think we're down 5% revenue for Q1. So net-net, we're sort of ahead, up 3%. Listen, we got a lot of work to do. This is a long game here. These changes are going to take place over the next several quarters and several years. We don't have any major structural changes that are laying in front of us that we're going to implement. But clearly, we're working hard every day to drive down costs and improve the efficiency and the speed and the reliability of our intermodal business. So we're pleased with the progress to date but we're not satisfied yet. And we hope as we've talked about many, many times that the profitability of that segment will continue to increase over time.

聽著，我想我們顯然對已宣布的聯運調整所取得的進展感到滿意。大家都知道，配合我們去年 10 月宣布的變更，以及今年 1 月再次宣布的變更，我們削減了大約 8% 的運量。我想我們第一季營收下降了 5%。所以整體來看（net-net），我們算是領先，淨增約 3%。聽著，我們還有很多工作要做。這是一場長期戰。這些變更將在接下來幾個季度以及未來幾年逐步落實。我們眼前沒有任何要實施的重大結構性變革。但很明顯地，我們每天都在努力降低成本，並提升聯運業務的效率、速度與可靠性。因此我們對目前的進展感到滿意，但還不滿足。而且我們希望，如同我們多次談到的，該事業部門的獲利能力能隨時間持續提升。

Our next question comes from Chris Wetherbee from Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團（Citigroup）的 Chris Wetherbee。

I guess I want to start on the operating ratio. So no change to the target yet you guys are below, I guess, the target in the first quarter. If I look at seasonality over the last several years, you sort of had about a 300 basis point swing between first quarter and full year OR. How should we think about seasonality this year, understanding maybe the back half, there's going to be some potential pressures from coal, but how do we think about that? It would seem like you've made already very, very strong progress to that full year target.

我想先從營運比率（operating ratio）談起。目標目前沒有調整，但你們第一季的表現似乎已低於（優於）該目標。如果我看過去幾年的季節性，你們第一季與全年 OR 之間大概有約 300 個基點的波動。今年的季節性該如何看待？考量到下半年可能會有來自煤炭的一些壓力，我們應該怎麼思考？看起來你們距離全年目標已經取得非常、非常強勁的進展。

Chris, it's Frank. You should expect some seasonality as you think about the normal dip that you see between Q1 and Q2 and then fairly similar between Q2, Q3 and then up a little bit in Q4. It's probably not going to be as pronounced as what you've seen in some prior years. But yes, we expect to make progress Q2 versus Q1. And obviously, we got our eyes on the macro like everybody else and feel pretty good about where we started out the year.

Chris，我是 Frank。你應該預期會有一些季節性：通常你會看到 Q1 到 Q2 有一個正常的下滑（dip），然後 Q2、Q3 大致相近，Q4 再略微上升。今年可能不會像過去某些年度那麼明顯。但沒錯，我們預期 Q2 相較 Q1 會有所進步。當然，我們也和大家一樣關注總體環境，並且對今年開局的狀況感覺相當不錯。

Okay. That's helpful. And just a quick follow-up here just on the labor side. Wanted to make sure I understand the cadence. I think Frank, you talked about absorbing attrition. We should assume that's somewhere in that kind of almost 7% type of range from a headcount perspective as we move through the rest of the year?

好的。這很有幫助。再快速追問一下人力方面。我想確認我理解的節奏是否正確。Frank，我記得你提到吸收自然流失（attrition）。我們是否應該假設，從人頭數角度來看，隨著今年剩餘時間推進，自然流失大概會落在接近 7% 的區間？

Yes. The guidance that we put out on the Q4 call and then Jim reiterated in some of the conferences he was at, our historical attrition levels would be in that 6% to 7% range. And we're really talking about the total workforce, which would include not just management and union folks but also contractors and consultants, and the roughly 500-or-so that you saw year-to-date is a pretty good start against that target.

是的。我們在第四季電話會議提出的指引，以及 Jim 在他參加的一些會議中重申的內容，我們歷史上的自然流失率大約在 6% 到 7% 的範圍。而我們談的是整體人力，包括不只是管理層與工會人員，也包含承包商與顧問；而你們看到年初至今大約 500 人左右的變化，對照該目標來說是個相當不錯的開始。

Our next question comes from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美國銀行美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）的 Ken Hoexter。

Great job on the quarter. Just thinking about the state of the market, Jim, can you talk about historical thoughts as pricing in the truck market loosens and pricing pulls back a bit there on intermodal? Can merchandise remain solid? Can you talk about the correlation we could expect to see given the pressure on the intermodal pricing side?

本季表現很棒。就市場狀況來看，Jim，你能否談談歷史經驗：當卡車市場的定價趨於寬鬆、價格回落時，聯運（intermodal）的定價也會跟著回落。在這種情況下，商品運輸（merchandise）能否仍然維持穩健？在聯運定價承壓的背景下，你能談談我們可能會看到的相關性（correlation）嗎？

Well, again, our focus has been since the day I walked in the door here that this operating model works best for transforming the merchandise business into a much more effective competitor with the highway. And we already know that the customers are paying 15% to 20% more to ship by truck in those market segments. So again -- so the spot market pricing of trucks really is irrelevant. It's all about how much we can improve our service, which will allow us to grow our business in the future in merchandise. On the intermodal side of the business, again, we have long-term relationships with various channel partners and are interested in jointly developing transportation solutions that are going to make us both competitive in the marketplace. And again, the spot market and the somewhat loosening of the truck market there does not diminish the significance and the value that the railroad plays in the transportation marketplace in intermodal. When you're looking at some of these long-haul moves, Chicago, New York, Chicago, South Florida or up and down the East Coast. So we still have a significant advantage in terms of cost in those long-haul moves, and we'll continue to work with our partners to leverage that.

嗯，再次強調，自從我踏進這裡的第一天起，我們的重點就是：這套營運模式最能把商品運輸業務轉型成為一個更有效、能與公路運輸競爭的對手。而我們已經知道，在那些市場區隔中，客戶用卡車運輸要多付 15% 到 20% 的費用。所以再說一次——卡車現貨市場的價格其實無關緊要。重點在於我們能把服務改善到什麼程度，這將使我們未來能在商品運輸上擴大業務。至於聯運業務方面，同樣地，我們與各種通路夥伴有長期合作關係，也有興趣共同開發運輸解決方案，讓我們雙方在市場上都具競爭力。同樣地，卡車現貨市場以及卡車市場稍微轉鬆，並不會削弱鐵路在聯運運輸市場中的重要性與價值。尤其是一些長途運輸，例如芝加哥到紐約、芝加哥到南佛羅里達，或沿著美東上下行的路線。因此在這些長途運輸上，我們在成本方面仍有顯著優勢，並將持續與夥伴合作以發揮這個優勢。

That's great. If I could just get a quick follow-up on that, that same subject. And so as you improve the performance so significantly versus where you were, you've always talked more about taking business from the highway. Do you feel like that's where you're really winning from? Are you seeing the competitor make strides in improving their performance relative to where they had been to keep that gap narrow? Or are you seeing kind of any significant gains there?

很好。如果可以的話，我想就同一主題再快速追問。當你們的表現相較過去大幅改善時，你們一直更常談到從公路端搶回業務。你覺得你們主要就是在那裡贏得業務嗎？你是否看到競爭對手也在改善他們的表現、相較於過去有所進步，以縮小差距？或者你們是否看到任何顯著的進展（或增益）？

Well, I think our growth over the last 12 months in the merchandise business segment at CSX has been a significant transformation. You haven't seen this kind of sustained volume growth at CSX. You have to go back to kind of like 2014 or early 2015 in order to find this kind of growth. And it's directly related to the fact that we have a product now that the customers are willing to rely upon and give us more of their transportation spend, whereas in the past, they've maybe given 50% or 60% of the volume through rail and 40% to truck because they didn't trust the reliability of the railroad to get their products across -- to market. And that is where we are seeing our growth come from. It is from our existing customers, to a large degree, where we are gaining a larger share of their transportation spend each and every day and hopefully, that will continue.

嗯，我認為過去 12 個月我們在 CSX 的商品運輸業務區塊的成長，是一次重大的轉型。你在 CSX 沒有看到過這種持續性的運量成長。你得回到大概 2014 年或 2015 年初，才找得到這種成長。而這直接與一個事實相關：我們現在有一個客戶願意依賴的產品（服務），並願意把更多的運輸支出交給我們；而在過去，他們可能只把 50% 或 60% 的量交給鐵路、40% 交給卡車，因為他們不信任鐵路能可靠地把產品運到——市場。而這正是我們看到成長來源的地方。在很大程度上，成長來自我們既有客戶：我們每天都在提高我們在他們運輸支出中的占比，希望這樣的趨勢能持續下去。

Our next question comes from Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Brian Ossenbeck。

So Mark, maybe just on export coal again. We have seen a pretty sharp drop in both the API2 and also New Castle. Beginning with your comments about 90% being locked in, do you think the business has been relatively well insulated for that? Export thermal coal is actually up in the first quarter, but just wondering how the drop we've seen is going to play out in the markets and CSX's volumes later this year.

Mark，可能再談一下出口煤。我們看到 API2 以及 New Castle 都出現相當明顯的下跌。從你提到約 90% 已鎖定來看，你認為這項業務在這方面是否相對受到良好保護？出口動力煤在第一季其實是成長的，但想請教我們看到的這波下跌，將如何在市場中發酵，並影響 CSX 今年稍晚的運量。

Yes. I think -- so again, the API2 is well -- it's -- one of our thermal coal goes to Europe. Mild winter temps there, high stockpiles, low natural gas prices all create this low API2 number. We definitely have seen a little bit of softness. As I said, we do have all that volume locked in for this year. We were fortunate enough in the first quarter to pick up a nice win because of our service from our key competitor but -- so that helped with some of the volumes there and some of the business in the first quarter. But clearly, I think when you think about the thermal side of the export business, it's going to be a challenge. But we do have minimum volume guarantees there so I think we're pretty insulated on the met side. The benchmarks remain strong. Forward curve is now $200, good demand. We did see a little bit of producer issues in the first quarter with some of the weather and coal and some of that kind of stuff. But I fully expect that, that will rebound and we'll see some good strength there. So again, as I mentioned to Allison in the first question, we still expect low 40s.

是的。我想——所以再說一次，API2——嗯——我們的部分動力煤是運往歐洲。那邊冬季氣溫偏暖、庫存水位高、天然氣價格低，這些因素共同造成 API2 處在低檔。我們確實看到一些疲軟。如我所說，我們今年的那些運量都已經鎖定。第一季我們也很幸運，因為主要競爭對手的服務因素，我們拿下了一筆不錯的勝利——這對第一季那邊的一些運量與業務有所幫助。但很明顯，當你想到出口業務中的動力煤部分，這會是一個挑戰。不過我們那邊有最低運量保證，所以我認為在冶金煤（met）這一側我們相當受到保護。基準價格仍然強勁。遠期曲線現在在 200 美元，需求良好。第一季我們確實看到一些生產端問題，與天氣、煤炭以及一些類似因素有關。但我完全預期那會反彈，我們會看到不錯的強勢表現。所以再說一次，如同我在第一個問題回覆 Allison 時提到的，我們仍預期在 40 出頭。

And as I said in my concluding remarks there related to our outlook for the year, we had always expected, 3 months ago and earlier when we were putting together our guidance for the year, which we talked to you about in the last call, that this thermal benchmark was more likely than not to soften somewhat based upon all kinds of macro issues in Europe. We kind of thought that would be the case last year as well and as we all know, we got a little bit of tailwind last year because it didn't. So we've always been somewhat cautious on this topic. And so our number that Mark's talking about there is where we thought it would be. So that's why we're kind of telling you that we don't expect the coal to continue at the rates that it did in Q1 and that it's not going to be a big factor in the overall top line growth of the company this year.

而且如同我在結語中、就我們今年展望所提到的，三個月前以及更早、當我們在制定今年的財測指引時——也就是我們在上一通電話會議中和各位談到的——我們一直預期這個動力煤基準價更可能會因為歐洲各種總體因素而有所走軟。其實我們去年也有類似想法，而大家都知道，去年因為它並沒有走軟，我們反而得到了一點順風。所以在這個議題上我們一直相對保守。因此 Mark 剛剛談到的那個數字，正是我們原本預期會落在的水準。這也是為什麼我們會告訴各位，我們不預期煤炭會以第一季那樣的速度持續下去，而且它今年不會成為公司整體營收成長的一個重要因素。

All right, appreciate that. Mark, if you can just give us the update on the stockpiles, domestic utilities in North and South.

好的，感謝說明。Mark，如果可以的話，請你更新一下北方與南方國內公用事業的庫存狀況。

Yes. So stockpiles in the North are somewhat flat year-over-year. Going into the year, going into January, February, the sales was at 13-year lows. They're still down versus where they were this time last year but some of them have been replenished. And so we'll see what happens over the course of the year. But we're all praying for a nice hot summer in the [south] here so that we can run all our utilities and burn a lot of coal. We can move more.

好的。北方的庫存年對年大致持平。進入今年、也就是一月、二月時，銷售處於 13 年低點。目前仍低於去年同期的水準，但其中一些已經補回庫存。所以我們會看看今年接下來的情況如何發展。不過我們都在祈禱這裡的[南方]能有一個炎熱的夏天，這樣我們就能讓所有公用事業多運轉、燒掉大量煤炭。我們就能多運一些。

Our next question comes from Amit Mehrotra from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Amit Mehrotra。

Congrats on the good quarter. My question -- first question is just on the competitive dynamics. Norfolk Southern is obviously pursuing PSR via yield-up strategy. That provides CSX with a pricing umbrella for your business and I think we saw some of that in the quarter. But I would assume it also allows you to go after some market share. If you can just help us understand how you're thinking about or approaching that opportunity. Are you seeing market share opportunities as a direct result of those initiatives? And would you be maybe willing to have more balanced approach between volume and price given the structural cost advantage that you have after the PSR initiatives?

恭喜繳出不錯的一季。我的問題——第一個問題是關於競爭動態。Norfolk Southern 顯然正透過「提高收益（yield-up）」策略推動 PSR。這為 CSX 的業務提供了定價保護傘，我想我們在本季也看到一些跡象。但我也認為，這同時讓你們有機會去爭取一些市占。能否請你們協助我們理解，你們如何看待或如何切入這個機會？你們是否因這些舉措而直接看到市占機會？並且，考量你們在 PSR 舉措後具備結構性的成本優勢，你們是否可能願意在運量與價格之間採取更均衡的做法？

Yes. Clearly, inappropriate for me to comment on Norfolk Southern's pricing strategy. But clearly, we priced the value that we add and we are seeing some really good results there. We have a superior service product that's in the market now that we're providing to our customers. And I am very pleased with the pricing that we are extracting for the value that we are adding to our customer base.

是的。我顯然不適合評論 Norfolk Southern 的定價策略。但很清楚的是，我們會依據我們所創造的價值來定價，而且我們在這方面看到非常好的成果。我們現在在市場上提供給客戶的是更優越的服務產品。我對於我們就所增加的價值、從客戶群中取得的定價成果感到非常滿意。

Okay. And just one follow-up, if I could. Jim, just really about any structural factors that are limiting CSX's profitability. I believe when you guys started this journey, you talked about CSX's profitability relative to everybody else in the industry. Now almost everybody in the industry is now pursuing PSR and arguably has big targets out there. So is CSX still committed to being the best in North America from an OR perspective? And if so, what are the other areas of focus that can drive further OR improvement after the stellar results you guys have already done to date?

好的。如果可以的話再追問一個。Jim，主要是關於任何限制 CSX 獲利能力的結構性因素。我記得你們開始這段旅程時，曾談到 CSX 的獲利能力相對於產業其他公司的位置。現在幾乎整個產業都在推動 PSR，而且可以說都有很大的目標。那麼，從營業比率（OR）的角度來看，CSX 是否仍致力於成為北美最佳？如果是，在你們迄今已經做出亮眼成果之後，還有哪些其他重點領域能推動 OR 進一步改善？

Well, I would say that there clearly were 2 structural advantages when CSX -- disadvantages when CSX started this transformation under Mr. Harrison's leadership and Hunter dealt with those effectively. He ate the spaghetti and got rid of the spaghetti [bowl and wine] so that myth is gone. And he obviously put [his foam] over the railroad because we were not impacted by the weather this quarter. We are the leader. We are the leader in efficiency, we are the leader in operating ratio. And I believe, we're probably this quarter going to be, if not, clearly and probably in the U.S. maybe not North America, the leader in growth. And I got a couple other leadership targets that we're going to hit hopefully by the end of this year. So we are the best. My focus is and everybody here focus is to make sure that we continue to be the best. And there is no impediment, none whatsoever, that should stop us from achieving that.

嗯，我會說，當 CSX 在 Harrison 先生領導下開始這場轉型時，確實有兩個結構性優勢——不利因素，而 Hunter 有效地處理了這些問題。他把那團義大利麵吃掉了，也把那個義大利麵[碗和酒]拿走了，所以那個迷思已經不存在。而且他顯然也在鐵路上加了[他的泡棉]，因為我們本季沒有受到天氣影響。我們是領導者。我們在效率上是領導者，在營業比率上也是領導者。而且我相信，我們這一季很可能會是——即使不是——在美國很明顯、而在北美也許不一定——在成長方面的領導者。另外我還有幾個領導地位的目標，希望在今年底前能達成。所以我們是最好的。我的重點，以及在座各位的重點，是確保我們持續成為最好的。而且沒有任何阻礙，完全沒有任何阻礙，應該會阻止我們達成這一點。

Our next question comes from Tom Wadewitz from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀（UBS）的 Tom Wadewitz。

Let's see, impressive operating ratio in first quarter to be below 60%. Wanted to ask you on the intermodal revenue per car, that was -- I think that was roughly flattish. I would have expected maybe that the rationalizations might help you from a mix perspective. I don't know if mix was a factor. But what's happening with revenue per car? Is that a function of you have longer kind of contracts with your customers and you can't do much on price? Or maybe just help me think about how much of the intermodal you can reprice this year or a typical year.

我看看，第一季營業比率能低於 60%，相當令人印象深刻。我想請教你們關於聯運（intermodal）每車收入，這——我認為大致持平。我原本預期，這些合理化措施可能會在組合（mix）方面對你們有所幫助。我不確定組合是否是一個因素。但每車收入發生了什麼事？這是否因為你們與客戶簽的是較長期的合約，所以在價格上能做的不多？或者請協助我理解，今年或一般年份，你們有多少聯運業務可以重新議價（reprice）。

Tom, it's Mark. Thanks for the comments. Revenue per car for intermodal, yes, I mean it's a mix issue. Clearly, lane rationalizations play into that. But most of our intermodal businesses are on the contracts, so 90%-plus very little spot business. So -- but the lane rationalizations have the biggest impact on ERP and intermodal this quarter.

Tom，我是 Mark。謝謝你的評論。就聯運每車營收而言，是的，我的意思是這是組合（mix）問題。很明顯，路線精簡也會影響到這點。但我們大多數的聯運業務都是合約型，所以 90% 以上幾乎沒有現貨業務。所以——但本季對 ERP 與聯運每車營收影響最大的是路線精簡。

Tom, it's Frank. One other thing to just keep in mind, we do have small piece of our intermodal portfolio, which is what we call door-to-door and that one has got some higher RPUs.

Tom，我是 Frank。另外還有一點要記得，我們的聯運組合裡有一小部分是我們稱為門到門（door-to-door）的業務，而那一塊的每單位收入（RPU）較高。

Okay. So you're implying that was part of the rationalization with the door-to-door?

好的。所以你的意思是，門到門也包含在這次精簡之中？

It really wouldn't be. It really wasn't part of the rationalization. It was more in just a small segment of the business, which didn't grow nearly as much. So I'd say it's just mixed within -- the rationalizations have more to do with profitability in this year with RPU.

其實不會。它確實不在精簡範圍內。比較像是業務中的一個小區塊，而那一塊的成長幅度沒有那麼大。所以我會說這只是組合上的變化——精簡更多是與今年在每單位收入（RPU）下的獲利能力有關。

Okay. All right. And then for the follow-up, I just wanted to see if you could offer a thought on how we might model revenue -- excuse me, comp and benefits per employee. It sounds like you might have had a benefit in the quarter or you did from the railroad retirement tax. I don't know if you want to quantify that and offer a thought about how much inflation per worker should we think about looking forward.

好的。好。接著追問一下，我想看看你能否提供一些想法，讓我們如何建模營收——不好意思，是每位員工的薪酬與福利（comp and benefits）。聽起來你們本季可能有受惠，或確實受惠於鐵路退休稅。我不確定你是否願意量化那部分，並談談往前看每位員工的通膨（成本增幅）大概應該怎麼估。

You had a couple of questions in there, Tom. I think we were about $30,000 per employee per quarter. It's relatively flat on a sequential basis, not really much to do with the railroad retirement item, which was about $15 million in the quarter. So not tons on that big of a labor and fringe line. What I think you're going to continue to see is something around that $30,000 per quarter per employee number. Obviously, there's a little bit of an uptick at midyear as we go through the annual general wage increase for our union and management employees.

Tom，你剛剛裡面問了幾個問題。我想我們大約是每位員工每季 30,000 美元。就季比而言相對持平，跟鐵路退休那個項目關係不大；那個項目本季大約是 1,500 萬美元。所以在這麼大的一條人力與附加福利費用線上，影響不算太大。我認為你接下來會持續看到大約每位員工每季 30,000 美元左右的水準。當然，年中我們會進行工會與管理人員的年度一般加薪，屆時會有些微上升。

Our next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

Mark, just one more follow-up on export thermal. Does your pricing adjust quarterly with the API index or are the rates locked with the contracts? I'm just not sure if we should think about it like met coal or not from a contracting standpoint.

Mark，再追問一個關於出口動力煤（export thermal）。你們的定價是依 API 指數按季調整，還是合約把費率鎖定住？我不確定從合約角度，我們是否應該把它視為像冶金煤（met coal）那樣。

No, the contracts are priced annually. On the met side, they're repriced quarterly based on the benchmarks.

不是，合約是按年定價。冶金煤那邊則是依基準按季重新定價。

Okay, that's helpful. And then just bigger picture. So I think you talk more directionally about pricing these days. It looks like pricing is still improving sequentially. Core pricing is still improving sequentially. Is that right? And do you think that, that can continue going forward into the rest of the year? Or does pricing, at some point, start to moderate a little bit just as we're seeing truckload and intermodal pricing start to moderate?

好的，這很有幫助。再從更宏觀的角度。我想你們最近談定價比較偏方向性。看起來定價仍在季比改善。核心定價也仍在季比改善。是這樣嗎？你覺得這種情況能在今年剩餘時間延續嗎？還是說，隨著我們看到卡車整車（truckload）與聯運定價開始趨緩，定價在某個時點也會開始稍微降溫？

Across the board, Scott, again, 66% of our business is merchandise. And to the extent that we continue to drive and improve our product, we're going to consistently get price increases. It's just plain and simple. We don't view this -- that segment of the business we'll view -- hardly any of our business as a commodity that's just out there trading around based on who's got the lowest price in town. Our focus is on making sure that we have the best-run railroad and the best reliable service that we could sell to our customers. And the customers have indicated a willingness to pay for that level of service and reliability so there's no reason in the world for us to discount our price. If there's -- again, if there's a customer out there that says to me, "Jim, I could care less about your service, I just want the lowest price in town." Well, guess what? I'm the lowest-cost guy in town. So if I wanted to play that game, I can play that game, too. But that is clearly, clearly not our focus or our intention.

Scott，整體來看，再次強調，我們 66% 的業務是一般貨運（merchandise）。只要我們持續推動並改善我們的產品，我們就會持續取得漲價。就是這麼簡單。我們不把——我們不把那一塊業務——其實我們幾乎不把任何業務視為一種商品（commodity），只是看誰在市場上用最低價在那邊交易。我們的重點是確保我們擁有營運最好的鐵路，以及能提供給客戶、可銷售的最佳且最可靠的服務。客戶也表明願意為這種服務與可靠性水準付費，所以我們沒有任何理由去折價。如果——再說一次，如果有客戶對我說：「Jim，我根本不在乎你的服務，我只要城裡最低價。」那麼，猜怎麼著？我是城裡成本最低的那個。所以如果我想玩那個遊戲，我也玩得起。但那顯然、顯然不是我們的重點或意圖。

We implemented a level of discipline but -- here and certainly every contract now gets my review. And so what I can tell you is, as I said previously, I'm extremely pleased with the value that we are extracting for the value of the service product group we're delivering.

我們建立了一定程度的紀律——而且現在每一份合約都一定會經過我審核。所以我能告訴你的是，正如我先前所說，我對於我們就所交付的服務產品組合所取得的價值回收（value extraction）感到非常滿意。

Justin Long from Stephens.

接下來是來自 Stephens 的 Justin Long。

Congrats on the quarter. So maybe to start with one for Jim. You classified the demand environment as stable. But one of your IMC partners said yesterday they're not seeing a snapback in demand in March and April as they had hoped. When you strip out the noise from weather, are you seeing anything that gives you pause about the economic backdrop? Or are you confident that we'll see volume growth from CSX over the remainder of the year?

恭喜本季表現。那也許先從問 Jim 一題開始。你把需求環境形容為穩定。但你們的一位 IMC 合作夥伴昨天表示，他們沒有在 3 月和 4 月看到原本希望出現的需求反彈。如果把天氣造成的雜訊剔除，你們是否看到任何讓你對經濟背景感到猶豫的跡象？或者你有信心 CSX 在今年剩餘時間會看到運量成長？

Well, the volume growth from CSX will be, as I described in my concluding remarks, principally for merchandise because of these aberrations, muted growth in intermodal, as I said, because of the line rationalizations and coal because of the factors associated with the export thermal coal. So to comment -- respond directly to your comment about someone else in the transportation space that's already talked about how they saw the first quarter, from what I heard from other people in the transportation space who've already talked about what they saw in the first quarter, nothing surprised me whatsoever. Clearly, everybody knew that there was bad weather, especially in the West that was impacting traffic volumes. Everybody knew that everybody had moved as much traffic as they possibly could forward in anticipation of tariffs. Everybody knew that there was a unique factor this year with the tariffs possibly being implemented with the start of Chinese New Year. So there was a lot of noise and a lot of aberration and a lot of issues in the first quarter that everybody was going to have to work their way through. And so there was no -- there's been no surprise to me at all. I think we'll all just kind of now kind of figure out what's going to happen with the material that's already in the warehouse that needs to move. Clearly, you're going to start to figure out seasonal changes. But right now, I'm sure everything's kind of pre-positioned for the Memorial Day sales and probably the 4th of July. So that stuff's got to move out so we can get the fall goods in and that sort of thing. But everybody's on a wait-and-see. But no surprises right now. It's about what we had expected it would be related to the tariffs and the reaction in the marketplace due to the difficult east wind weather is something that those of us who have been around the business for a long time have lived through before.

嗯，CSX 的運量成長會如同我在結語所說，主要來自一般貨運（merchandise），因為有這些異常因素；聯運成長偏弱，如我所說，是因為路線精簡；煤炭則是因為與出口動力煤相關的因素。所以針對——直接回應你提到運輸業其他公司已經談到他們第一季所見的情況：就我從其他已經談過第一季狀況的運輸業人士那裡聽到的內容，沒有任何事情讓我感到意外。很明顯，大家都知道天氣很差，尤其是西部，正在影響運量。大家也都知道，為了預期關稅，大家已經盡可能把貨量提前移動。大家也都知道，今年有一個特殊因素：關稅可能會在農曆新年開始時實施。所以第一季有很多雜訊、很多異常、很多問題，是大家都必須逐步消化的。因此對我來說完全沒有——完全沒有任何意外。我想我們現在都會開始釐清，倉庫裡已經到貨、需要移動的那些貨物接下來會怎麼走。很明顯，你也會開始看到季節性變化。但就目前而言，我確信所有東西大概都已經為陣亡將士紀念日的促銷、以及可能的 7 月 4 日預先佈署好了。所以那些貨必須移出，才能把秋季商品運進來，諸如此類。但大家都在觀望。不過目前沒有任何意外。這大致符合我們對關稅以及市場反應的預期；至於困難的東風天氣所造成的影響，對我們這些在這個行業待很久的人來說，以前也經歷過。

That's really helpful. And then secondly, going back to the truckload conversion opportunity. When you think about that addressable market, what percentage of that market would you say is in the intermodal business versus the general merchandise business? And are the incremental margins on those conversions pretty similar when you compare intermodal to general merchandise?

這真的很有幫助。其次，回到卡車運輸轉換的機會。當你思考那個可服務市場時，你會說其中有多少百分比是在聯運業務，相對於一般貨物（merchandise）業務？而且，將聯運與一般貨物相比，這些轉換帶來的增量利潤率是否相當接近？

The biggest opportunity for us is in the merchandise business. Again, when I talk to whether it's a paper producer, a steel producer, a plastics producer, whoever they are out there, they're not moving their product today over a long distance in a hopper car and making a really big buck doing it. We maybe have 60% of the business because they don't entrust us with the other 40% because we're not reliable enough and our service is not good enough for them to serve their customers. And so that's the key, that is the focus. That is the greatest opportunity and that is business that today is very, very, very good business for the railroad. In the intermodal business, clearly, once we get our network reconfigured and more focused, we will begin to offer alternative product there to a large number of shippers of different types of commodities that are again also looking for extremely reliable service. Again, whether you're a plastic shipper, a steel shipper or whether or not you're a shipper of a whole bunch of little bitty boxes with smiles on the side of them, you're not going to use the railroad if it's not reliable. So we need to get as reliable in that area in order to make sure that, that traffic moves in intermodal service as well.

對我們而言，最大的機會在一般貨物業務。再說一次，當我不論是跟紙品生產商、鋼鐵生產商、塑膠生產商，或任何其他客戶談，他們今天並不是把產品用漏斗車（hopper car）長距離運輸，然後賺到非常可觀的利潤。我們也許拿到其中60%的業務，因為他們不把另外40%交給我們，是因為我們不夠可靠、服務也不夠好，讓他們能服務自己的客戶。所以這就是關鍵、也是重點。這是最大的機會，而且這類業務在今天對鐵路而言是非常、非常、非常好的生意。在聯運業務方面，很明顯地，一旦我們把網路重新配置並更聚焦，我們就會開始在那裡向大量不同類型商品的託運人提供替代性產品，而他們同樣也在尋求極其可靠的服務。同樣地，不論你是塑膠託運人、鋼鐵託運人，或是運送一堆側邊印著笑臉的小箱子的託運人，如果鐵路不可靠，你就不會使用鐵路。因此我們需要在那個領域也做到同樣可靠，才能確保那些貨量也能以聯運服務方式運行。

Justin, Frank. On the incremental, (inaudible) obviously are going to be high on both because they're using existing trains, existing crews, you maybe burn a little bit of fuel and touch it in the yards but they'll both be high.

Justin、Frank。就增量而言，（聽不清）顯然兩者都會很高，因為都是使用既有列車、既有乘務組；你可能多燒一點燃料、在調車場多處理一下，但兩者都會很高。

Ben Hartford from Baird.

Baird 的 Ben Hartford。

Maybe just to follow up on that intermodal question. As you think about getting through this lane rationalization this year and you start -- continue to see service improvement, as you look out over the next several years, is there a good number to think about in terms of what the pace of domestic intermodal volume growth can be annually as you look at the market? Is it low single digits? Is it kind of in line with IP or GDP growth? Or can we still think of it as being a multiple of that underlying market growth rate?

也許就那個聯運問題再追問一下。當你們今年完成這些路線合理化，並且開始——持續看到服務改善時，展望未來幾年，從市場角度來看，國內聯運量每年的成長速度有沒有一個合理的數字可以參考？是低個位數？是大致與工業生產（IP）或 GDP 成長一致？還是我們仍可把它視為底層市場成長率的倍數？

Yes. I think I would expect that we would get back to the high single-digit growth number.

是的。我想我會預期我們能回到高個位數的成長水準。

Okay, good. And is that something in 2020 that's conceivable? Or is that going to take a little bit of time to get back into that high single-digit growth pace?

好的，很好。那在 2020 年有可能做到嗎？還是需要一點時間才能回到那種高個位數的成長節奏？

Tell me what the economy is going to do, and I'll tell you what we're going to do. But all things being equal, yes, I mean, I could see us getting back there next year, getting into 2021. Yes, I mean, that would be my expectation. Listen, we're not focused on driving volume right now. We're focused on driving profitable growth. And so we need to fix -- as Jim just alluded to, we need to fix -- continue to fix the intermodal segment. We're working through that every day. And -- but we want to bring business under the railroad that's going to be profitable and that's going be around here for a long time.

你告訴我經濟會怎麼走，我就告訴你我們會怎麼做。但在其他條件相同下，是的，我的意思是，我可以想像我們明年就能回到那裡，進入 2021 年。是的，那會是我的預期。聽著，我們現在並不專注於拉動貨量。我們專注於推動有利可圖的成長。所以我們需要修復——就像 Jim 剛剛提到的，我們需要修復——持續修復聯運部門。我們每天都在處理這件事。而且——但我們希望把能夠獲利、並且會長期留在這裡的業務帶到鐵路上來。

And then just a follow-up on the international intermodal side. How do you think about the long-term growth opportunity there? Is that more of in line with import growth or is there still kind of a total addressable market expansion opportunity there as well?

接著再追問一下國際聯運這一塊。你怎麼看那裡的長期成長機會？它更接近於進口成長的步調，還是那裡也仍有可服務市場擴張的機會？

No, there's still an addressable market that we're going after. I mean listen, there's a lot of stuff coming in West Coast, East Coast, all that stuff. And we -- given our service and given some of the service offerings in our new facility Northwest, Ohio, we're attracting a lot of attention there and we want to attract some more business and it's getting the attention of the international players there. So we're looking forward to growing that market segment. It's a good one for us. We provide a good value and we hope to recapture more of that share going forward.

不，那裡仍然有我們正在追逐的可服務市場。我的意思是，聽著，有很多貨物從西岸、東岸進來，諸如此類。而我們——憑藉我們的服務，以及我們在俄亥俄州西北部新設施的一些服務方案，正吸引到很多關注；我們也希望吸引更多業務，並且正在引起那裡國際業者的注意。所以我們期待擴大那個市場區隔。這對我們來說是個不錯的市場。我們提供良好的價值，我們也希望未來能重新奪回更多市占。

Our next question comes from David Vernon with Sanford Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 Sanford Bernstein 的 David Vernon。

So maybe just as you think about the service levels that you guys are getting right now, if we strip out that $23 million on the contract settlement, you're still running around $150 million in the [accessorials] and sort of other revenue. Is there a point where that number starts to fade off a little bit as the incidents which are causing some of the demurrage issues and stuff like that as customers adjust their supply chains? Or should we be kind of baking in that $150 million level kind of going forward?

所以也許就你們目前的服務水準來看，如果把合約和解的 2,300 萬美元剔除，你們在[附加費（accessorials）]以及其他收入方面仍大約有 1.5 億美元。隨著造成滯期費（demurrage）等問題的事件減少、以及客戶調整其供應鏈，這個數字是否會在某個時點開始稍微回落？還是我們應該把大約每季 1.5 億美元的水準視為未來的常態？

David, it's Frank. Yes, I think you've got it right. The idea is that it will come down a little bit. We guided earlier on the Q4 call that on a full year over full year basis, it would be lower. So if I were plugging in, I'd be in that $130 million to $135 million a quarter number. Now that's absent anything unique.

David，我是 Frank。是的，我想你理解得沒錯。我們的想法是它會下降一些。我們先前在第四季電話會議中指引過，以全年對全年來看，它會更低。所以如果要我帶入數字，我會用每季 1.3 億到 1.35 億美元。當然，這是不包含任何特殊一次性因素的情況下。

And again, that's a good news story because our customers aren't holding onto our cars and they're spinning them faster and we're getting better asset utilization. So we're not looking at driving that number higher. We're looking at driving hopefully it goes lower but those cars spin, better asset utilization better service.

而且再說一次，這其實是個好消息，因為我們的客戶沒有把我們的車皮扣著不放，他們讓車皮周轉更快，我們的資產利用率也更好。所以我們並不是要把那個數字推高。我們希望它能下降，但同時車皮周轉更快、資產利用率更好、服務更好。

That's what the charges are there for.

這些費用就是為此而設的。

All right. And then, maybe just to clarify, just make sure I got the list of the stuff on here. So the $23 million was the contract renewal. The $15 million in the labor line, is that recurring or is that just the onetime in the first quarter or are we going to see that every quarter?

好。然後，也許再釐清一下，確認我把這裡的項目都列對了。所以 2,300 萬美元是合約續約。人力那一行的 1,500 萬美元，是經常性的，還是只是第一季的一次性項目，或是我們每一季都會看到？

Onetime. First quarter only.

一次性。只有第一季。

And then $27 million in land sales, right?

然後土地出售是 2,700 萬美元，對嗎？

Yes, which was down $5 million year-over-year.

是的，而且年對年少了 500 萬美元。

Okay. Anything else with the (inaudible) that were in that sort of like $5 million to $10 million range or is that [65] the right number?

好的。還有其他（聽不清）落在大約 500 萬到 1,000 萬美元區間的項目嗎？還是說 [65] 就是正確的數字？

No, I think you got it.

沒有，我想你都抓到了。

Our next question comes from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 Ravi Shanker。

Just to follow up on the intermodal conversations. When do you think you might see that big inflection where the service is good enough that shippers acknowledge the value proposition of IM over rail and you -- over truck and you start to see this kind of big conversions to your intermodal business?

就聯運的討論再追問一下。你認為什麼時候可能會看到那個大的拐點——也就是服務好到足以讓託運人認可聯運相對於鐵路——相對於卡車的價值主張，然後你們開始看到這種大規模轉換到你們聯運業務的情況？

Well, as Mark said, he's -- Mark's pretty optimistic about where he thinks the growth rate's going to be. If you look at last year, we started this rationalization last year. We took off 7% of the business last year and we finished the year up 2%. So those growth rates that Mark's talking about, upper single digit are clearly not unrealistic once we get our network in order. And again, our intermodal service, I think right now is pretty fantastic. What we got out of in terms of lane rationalizations was a regional kind of a short-haul intermodal service that had really nothing to do with the rates. It was -- but it was the number of multiple handlings associated with it that it was difficult to absorb those costs in the intermodal business. So we decided to exit that regional strategy and get back to a more traditional network strategy, leveraging the franchise we have, linking together our 25-or-so key intermodal terminals and working with truckers that clearly see the advantages to the intermodal services because it reduces their overall costs as well. So once we get through this -- some of these challenges that we have from a structural standpoint, which should be by the end of this year, maybe tip over into next year because some of them were just started this quarter of this year, then I think you'll start to see this business growth rates coming back to their more appropriate levels.

嗯，正如 Mark 所說，他——Mark 對他認為成長率將走向何處相當樂觀。如果你看去年，我們去年開始進行這項合理化。去年我們把業務縮減了 7%，但全年仍成長 2%。所以 Mark 談到的那些成長率——高個位數——一旦我們把網路整理到位，顯然並非不切實際。再者，我認為我們目前的聯運服務相當出色。我們在路線合理化中退出的，是一種區域型、短途的聯運服務，這其實與運價無關。它是——但問題在於其中涉及多次裝卸，導致在聯運業務中很難吸收那些成本。因此我們決定退出那個區域策略，回到更傳統的網路策略，運用我們既有的特許經營優勢，把約 25 個關鍵聯運場站串聯起來，並與卡車業者合作；他們清楚看到聯運服務的優勢，因為這也能降低他們的整體成本。所以一旦我們度過——從結構面來看我們目前的一些挑戰（應該在今年底前完成，或可能延伸到明年，因為其中一些是在今年這一季才剛開始），我認為你將開始看到這項業務的成長率回到更適當的水準。

Got it. And just to follow up on something you said earlier about some shippers wanting just lowest price. I don't know if you can answer this question, but can you kind of quantify what percentage of your shippers, specifically in intermodal and merchandise, are folks who prioritize service versus folks who just want the lowest price?

了解。再追問一下你先前提到有些託運人只想要最低價格。我不確定你能否回答，但你能否大致量化一下：在你的客戶中，特別是聯運與一般貨運（merchandise）領域，有多少比例是優先重視服務、又有多少比例只是想要最低價格？

I think in the -- I think without a doubt, 100% of our merchandise customers, which are -- and 100% of our merchandise customers clearly, if you ask them, are focused on -- their #1 priority is reliability. If you -- if they're coal customers, again, we're part of a supply chain that involves piers, involves terminals, involves ships, involves utilities running. They want reliability. They don't want to screw around and they don't have the flexibility in their supply chain to absorb inefficiency. If you ask the domestic intermodal customer, especially those associated with e-commerce, when they make a commitment to a customer that they're going to have a package delivered across the country in 24 to 48 hours, they don't screw around, they want it there in 24 to 48 hours. That kind of leaves a little group left over that you can figure out who like to bundle up a whole bunch of containers and put them into a steam ship port someplace and say we're interested in price. So that's a small minority of our customers.

我認為在——我認為毫無疑問，我們 100% 的一般貨運客戶——而且我們 100% 的一般貨運客戶如果你去問他們，都會很清楚地聚焦在——他們的第一優先是可靠性。如果——如果他們是煤炭客戶，同樣地，我們是供應鏈的一部分，這個供應鏈包含碼頭、包含場站、包含船舶、包含公用事業的運轉。他們要的是可靠性。他們不想瞎折騰，而且他們的供應鏈沒有彈性去吸收低效率。如果你問國內聯運客戶，特別是與電商相關的那些，當他們向客戶承諾包裹會在 24 到 48 小時內跨國送達時，他們不會瞎折騰，他們要的就是 24 到 48 小時內送到。那就剩下一小群人，你大概也能猜到，就是喜歡把一大堆貨櫃打包起來，送到某個蒸汽船港口，然後說我們只在乎價格。所以那只是我們客戶中的少數。

Our next question comes from Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Walter Spracklin。

So I just want to come back to a prior question just so I understand it. Mark, when asked about any indication that you might have picked up in recent conversations with your customers with regards to potentially waning demand again just in a recent month or so saying that okay, yes, we did have -- you did have demarketing, yes, we did have weather and all that. But all that aside, are you detecting any change in tone with your customer conversations that would indicate perhaps a slightly lower growth rate or lower demand for freight cars than you had when you set your guidance at the beginning of the year?

我想回到先前的一個問題，確認我理解正確。Mark，當被問到你最近與客戶對談中，是否有任何跡象顯示需求可能在最近一個月左右又轉弱——也就是說，好，我們確實有——你們確實有去行銷（demarketing），確實有天氣因素等等。但撇開那些不談，你在與客戶的對話中是否察覺語氣上的任何變化，可能暗示成長率略低、或對貨車（freight cars）的需求低於你在年初設定指引時的預期？

So listen, again, our service in the first quarter and -- is very good. Our customers are recognizing that service. Q1, a lot of noise. Jim alluded to it. We had weather -- bad weather in February, lane rationalizations, intermodal were -- our channel partners were out for a good season with Chinese New Year with a lot going on. So try to put all that in the blender and try to figure out what exactly is happening in intermodal, good luck with it because I'm still trying to figure it out. But listen, we had a good service product out there. Our partners, whether it's intermodal or in the carload side, are clearly seeing the value of that. Their tone with us is changing. It's only getting better and better every day. I spent recently a lot of time with a lot of different customers across the portfolio. We're winning new business every day, both from truck and from rail. They're pleased with us. And so yes, I'm very happy with where we are. I'm cautiously optimistic for the remainder of the year. People are as well. Business confidence remains relatively good. Nobody's setting any fire alarms. And so given all that and given Jim's comments earlier about the strength of -- what we see in our key merchandise portfolio, I'm really confident there. But we do have some issues with these lane rationalizations that we did in coal so -- but now we're good.

所以聽著，再說一次，我們第一季的服務——非常好。我們的客戶也正在認可這樣的服務。第一季雜音很多。Jim 也提到了。我們遇到天氣——二月的惡劣天氣、路線合理化、聯運方面——我們的通路夥伴又碰上中國農曆新年旺季，事情很多。所以把這些全丟進果汁機裡想弄清楚聯運到底發生什麼事，祝你好運，因為我自己也還在試著搞清楚。但聽著，我們在市場上提供的是一個很好的服務產品。我們的夥伴，不論是聯運或整車（carload）端，都很清楚看到了這個價值。他們跟我們互動的語氣正在改變。每天都在變得更好、更好。我最近花了很多時間，和投資組合中各式各樣的客戶交流。我們每天都在贏得新業務，既有從卡車那邊轉來的，也有從鐵路那邊來的。他們對我們很滿意。所以是的，我對我們目前的狀況非常滿意。對今年剩餘時間我抱持審慎樂觀。大家也是。企業信心仍然相對不錯。沒有人在拉火警警報。因此綜合以上，再加上 Jim 先前對我們核心一般貨運組合所見到的強勁表現的評論，我對那部分非常有信心。不過我們在煤炭的這些路線合理化上確實還有一些問題——但現在我們已經好了。

Okay. That's comforting. And just a follow-up here. I think if I wrote it down correctly last quarter, Mark, you had indicated that your volume expectation for the full year would be flat to slightly up and that your intermodal would -- I wrote down low intermodal growth. Now you've got negative 4.5% in the first quarter and then full year total volume negative 0.1%. Are we going to see just an improvement here as we go through the quarter and get back up to some kind of positive overall growth and perhaps not quite a strong a downturn for the rest of the year in intermodal as we saw in the first quarter?

好的。這讓人安心。再追問一下。如果我沒記錯，上季 Mark 你曾表示全年運量預期會持平到小幅成長，而聯運——我記下來是聯運低成長。但現在第一季是負 4.5%，而全年總運量是負 0.1%。我們是否會在接下來的季度看到改善、回到某種正的整體成長？以及聯運在今年剩餘時間的下滑是否會不像第一季那麼嚴重？

I think we're expecting some growth there in Q4. So it should be -- we'll see sort of flattish and then hopefully up for -- in Q4. But where the expectations for intermodal on volume is still I hope to be flattish and I'm hoping that's what the, I'll use Jim's word, a touch below that but hopefully we can come in flat.

我想我們預期第四季會有一些成長。所以應該會——我們會看到大致持平，然後希望在——第四季轉為成長。但就聯運運量的預期而言，我仍希望能大致持平；我希望——借用 Jim 的說法——可能會略低於持平一點，但希望我們能做到持平。

Our next question comes from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays Capital.

下一個問題來自 Barclays Capital 的 Brandon Oglenski。

Mark, I guess investors have really -- the market can be fickle and we've all turned our attention to the new PSR stories across the street in the East Coast and with a bigger railroad out west. But I guess maybe folks don't appreciate all the changes that you've made on the sales and marketing side. So one, can you talk about what you're doing different now in approaching the market with the organization that you have in place? And is the organization fully built out? And then, I guess, number two, I think at your analyst meeting last year, you called out like a 4% long-term growth CAGR for merchandise. Is that still the right outlook given the changes you made on the team?

Mark，我想投資人確實——市場可能反覆無常，而我們的注意力都轉向了東岸隔壁的新 PSR 故事，以及西部一家更大的鐵路公司。但我想大家可能沒有充分理解你們在銷售與行銷端所做的所有改變。所以第一，你能談談在目前這個組織架構下，你們現在以不同方式切入市場、做法有哪些不同嗎？而這個組織是否已經完全建置到位？然後第二，我記得你在去年分析師會議上提到一般貨運長期大約 4% 的 CAGR 成長。在你們團隊做了這些變動之後，這仍然是正確的展望嗎？

I certainly hope so. That's exactly what we're chasing and going after and I'd lie to you if I said I wasn't trying to beat that number. Listen, we -- I think we have a very solid team. Now I've been in this job for about 9 months now. The first half of my time, 3/4 of my time, I was out meeting with a lot of customers, introducing myself and learning about their businesses and how we can provide value to them. Most recently, I've been spending a lot of time with our team. We just announced 3 weeks ago, a month ago, some major -- a major reorganization in the sales and marketing team. Now it wasn't only Arthur Adams and Kevin Boone that got new jobs. And listen, what we're trying to do with Kevin's team, my view was, well, as good as we thought we were with sales and marketing, we were really lacking or missing the deep core understanding of our customers' businesses and how we could help them succeed in the marketplace and how we can provide value as a transportation and logistics solutions provider to enable their growth. And so we needed to up our analytical and our data-driven business and get some people in the organization that had that skill set and really drive value there by understanding our customers and how they're going to grow going forward and how we can be a provider with them and grow with them. So that's what Kevin's team is doing. That's where we're going to grow. We're spending a lot of time with Kevin. We brought some people into focus on regional sales. We brought some people into focus on our short-line strategy, growing with our short-line partners. If you look back over the last 5 years, our volumes with our short-line partners has declined, CAGR, I think, 3% every year. That's not acceptable. We got to turn that around, we got to grow that. We're working on our port development strategy and a whole bunch of other initiatives, including trying to be better partners and provide better customer relations with our customers under Arthur Adams' group. So a lot of different things going on. I think all this culminates into growing merchandise. And that's my focus. That's the growth area for us. That's where we've lost volume over the last 4, 5 years. And my goal and my job is to grow this organization and figure out ways to enable that growth. And so we're not leaving any stone unturned. It's full force ahead. I've got the resources, I've got the team. We're probably a trade or 2 away from having a full complement of a team that I really want to go forward with. So maybe 1 or 2 extra little moves here to make in the next little while but -- so stay tuned for that. But clearly, we're heading in the right direction. We got a fantastic team under me right now and we're focused on the future and focused on growing.

我當然希望如此。這正是我們在追求、在努力達成的目標；如果我說我不想超越那個數字，那就是在騙你。聽著，我們——我認為我們有一支非常穩健的團隊。我在這個職位上大約 9 個月了。我任期的前半段、也就是大約 3/4 的時間，都在外面拜訪許多客戶，自我介紹並了解他們的業務，以及我們如何為他們創造價值。最近，我花了很多時間和我們的團隊在一起。我們就在 3 週前、差不多 1 個月前，宣布了銷售與行銷團隊的一項重大——重大重組。這不只是 Arthur Adams 和 Kevin Boone 換了新職務而已。而且聽著，我們想透過 Kevin 的團隊來做的事，我的看法是：即便我們自認在銷售與行銷方面做得不錯，但我們其實欠缺或忽略了對客戶業務的深層核心理解——他們如何在市場上成功、以及我們作為運輸與物流解決方案供應商，如何提供價值以促進他們的成長。因此，我們需要提升分析能力與數據驅動的業務能力，並在組織中引進具備這種技能組合的人才；透過理解客戶、理解他們未來如何成長，以及我們如何成為他們的供應商並與他們一起成長，來真正創造價值。這就是 Kevin 的團隊正在做的事。這就是我們將要成長的方向。我們花了很多時間和 Kevin 一起推進。我們引進了一些人，聚焦於區域銷售。我們也引進了一些人，聚焦於我們的短線鐵路策略，與短線合作夥伴一起成長。如果你回頭看過去 5 年，我們與短線合作夥伴的運量是下滑的，年複合成長率（CAGR）我想每年約 -3%。這不可接受。我們必須扭轉局面，必須讓它成長。我們正在推動港口開發策略，以及一大堆其他倡議，包括在 Arthur Adams 團隊之下，努力成為更好的合作夥伴，並為客戶提供更好的客戶關係。所以有很多不同的事情同時在進行。我認為這一切最終都會匯聚到商品貨運（merchandise）的成長。那是我的重點。那是我們的成長領域。那也是我們在過去 4、5 年流失運量的地方。而我的目標、我的工作，就是讓這個組織成長，並找出能促成這種成長的方法。因此我們不會放過任何一個可能性。我們將全力以赴。我有資源，我有團隊。我們可能還差 1、2 個關鍵人才（或職缺補強），才能組成我真正希望用來往前推進的完整團隊編制。所以接下來一段時間也許還會再做 1、2 個小調整——敬請期待。但很明顯，我們正朝著正確的方向前進。目前在我之下有一支非常出色的團隊，我們聚焦於未來，也聚焦於成長。

Cherilyn Radbourne from TD Securities.

TD Securities 的 Cherilyn Radbourne。

Wanted to pivot away from sales and marketing quickly and ask if you could talk about how your use of distributed power has expanded and how much further runway you think you have with that particular lever.

我想先快速把話題從銷售與行銷轉開，請你談談你們對分散式動力（distributed power）的使用如何擴大，以及你認為在這個槓桿上還有多長的發揮空間。

Distributed power was not used by CSX really until some of our operating team [got here] was just more familiar with using it for years and years either in Canada or in the West. And so we have been aggressively implementing that across the network from 0 a little over a year ago up to about 68 to 70 trains a day now. So we've got a big portion of the key trains operating in that manner today with a lot more in '19, a lot more opportunity for us to grow that as we go forward.

CSX 過去其實幾乎不使用分散式動力，直到我們的一些營運團隊（來到這裡）後，他們多年來在加拿大或西部地區就很熟悉這種做法。因此我們在全網路積極導入，從一年多前的 0，提升到現在每天大約 68 到 70 班列車。所以目前我們有相當大一部分的關鍵列車已用這種方式運行；2019 年會更多，未來也還有很大的機會持續擴大。

Great. And then quickly on share buybacks. You bought back about $800 million in the quarter. Frank, any thoughts on how quickly you might complete your latest program there?

很好。接著快速問一下庫藏股回購。你們這一季回購了大約 8 億美元。Frank，你對於可能多快完成最新的回購計畫，有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. We really didn't set a time frame on this one. We'll take a look at how we're doing, how the economy is doing, what the share price looks like in the quarter. We did get a bit of a slow start because we were still finishing up a prior program, which exhausted right around the Q4 earnings call so we really weren't that heavily in the market in the first 2 or 3 weeks of this year.

有。我們這次其實沒有設定時間表。我們會視我們的執行情況、經濟狀況，以及當季股價表現來評估。我們確實起步稍慢，因為我們還在完成上一個計畫；那個計畫大約在第四季財報電話會議前後用完，所以今年前 2 到 3 週我們其實沒有那麼積極進場。

And our last question comes from Bascome Majors with Susquehanna International.

我們最後一個問題來自 Susquehanna International 的 Bascome Majors。

Can you guys talk in broad strokes about the contractual prices that you're achieving this year and how it compared to the pricing increases that you achieved last year? And specifically that question really across the truck competitive business, maybe separately for merchandise and separately for intermodal.

你們能否用比較概括的方式談談今年你們達成的合約價格，以及與去年達成的漲價幅度相比如何？並且特別針對與卡車競爭的業務來回答——也許分別就商品貨運（merchandise）以及聯運（intermodal）來談。

Well, I'll turn it over to Mark but the short answer is no. But we can give you some general guidance along the lines that we've been talking but just generally, what our philosophy is toward merchandise, intermodal and coal and Mark will do that.

嗯，我把這題交給 Mark，但簡短答案是不行。不過我們可以沿著我們一直在談的方向，提供一些一般性的指引——也就是我們對商品貨運、聯運與煤炭的整體理念，Mark 會說明。

I'll repeat, no. But no, again, were continuing to enjoy solid results for the value that we provide to our customers and so not only in intermodal. Now again, a lot of our intermodal business is locked up in multiyear contracts so rates are predetermined with escalators every year. But on the merchandise side, again, it's about winning incremental business, converting that freight from the highway. As Jim talked about, some shippers ship both by rail and by truck because of our lack of having a good service product and lack of reliability in the past. As we become more reliable and consistent, they want to use rail. And so if we can convert that business, it's all incremental. And merchandise sector, it's good business for us and we're happy to have it on the railroad. So that's our strategy and that's where we're winning and -- but that's about as far as I want to go on the pricing side.

我再重申一次，不行。但話說回來，我們持續因為為客戶提供的價值而享有穩健的成果，不僅是在聯運方面。當然，我們很多聯運業務是以多年期合約鎖定，因此費率是預先訂定，且每年有調整（escalator）。但在商品貨運這一端，重點仍在於贏得增量業務，把貨量從公路轉到鐵路。如 Jim 所說，有些託運人同時用鐵路與卡車運輸，因為過去我們的服務產品不夠好、可靠性也不足。當我們變得更可靠、更一致時，他們就想用鐵路。因此如果我們能把那部分業務轉換過來，那就全都是增量。而商品貨運部門對我們來說是好生意，我們也很高興把它放到鐵路上來運。所以這就是我們的策略，也是我們正在取勝的地方——至於定價面，我就先說到這裡。

Thank you, everyone. I think that concludes our call for today.

謝謝各位。我想今天的電話會議就到這裡。

Thank you get much, everybody.

非常感謝各位。

Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may disconnect your lines.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的會議。您可以掛斷電話線。