CSX Corporation (CSX) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CSX Corporation Fourth Quarter 2019 Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、各位先生，下午好，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2019 年第四季電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。(接線員指示)

For opening remarks and introduction, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Bill Slater, Chief Investor Relations Officer for CSX Corporation. You may begin.

接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話會議交給 CSX Corporation 投資人關係長 Bill Slater 先生。您可以開始了。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me on today's call are Jim Foote, President and Chief Executive Officer; Mark Wallace, Executive Vice President of Sales and Marketing; Kevin Boone, Chief Financial Officer; and Jamie Boychuk, Executive Vice President of Operations.

謝謝，各位下午好。今天與我一同參與電話會議的有：總裁暨執行長 Jim Foote；銷售與行銷執行副總裁 Mark Wallace；財務長 Kevin Boone；以及營運執行副總裁 Jamie Boychuk。

On Slide 2 is our forward-looking disclosure, followed by our non-GAAP disclosure on Slide 3.

投影片 2 為我們的前瞻性聲明揭露，接著投影片 3 為我們的非 GAAP 揭露。

With that, it is my pleasure to introduce President and Chief Executive Officer, Jim Foote.

接下來，我很榮幸介紹總裁暨執行長 Jim Foote。

Thank you, Bill, and good afternoon. I want to begin by thanking all of our CSX employees for another great job this quarter. They continue to show that they are the best operators in the industry. For both the fourth quarter and full year, they once again broke their own records and set new all-time low operating ratios.

謝謝你，Bill，各位下午好。我想先感謝所有 CSX 員工在本季再次交出優異的成績。他們持續證明自己是業界最出色的營運團隊。無論是第四季或全年，他們再次打破自身紀錄，並創下歷史新低的營運比率。

Our service is the best it has ever been and getting better. The key here is reliability. Operating a simpler, more efficient network, we are able to offer rail users a service that is truck-like in consistency but with lower cost and more environmentally responsible. More shippers are selecting us for their shipping needs, and we have tremendous opportunity for growth.

我們的服務水準是史上最佳，且仍在持續改善。關鍵在於可靠性。透過營運更簡化、更有效率的網路，我們能為鐵路使用者提供在一致性上如同卡車運輸般的服務，但成本更低且更符合環境責任。越來越多貨主選擇我們來滿足其運輸需求，我們也擁有龐大的成長機會。

Let's now turn to Slide 5 of the presentation. Our financial results are straightforward with only a few unique items, which Kevin will point out in a few minutes. Fourth quarter EPS declined 2% to $0.99. The operating ratio improved by 30 basis points to a new record of 60 as continued operating momentum offset top line headwinds. For the full year, EPS increased 9% to $4.17, and the operating ratio improved by 190 basis points to 58.4%. These are truly great results considering the industrial economy's second half performance.

現在請看簡報投影片 5。我們的財務結果相當明確，只有少數特殊項目，Kevin 會在幾分鐘後指出。第四季每股盈餘（EPS）下滑 2% 至 0.99 美元。在持續的營運動能抵銷營收端逆風之下，營運比率改善 30 個基點，創下 60 的新紀錄。全年 EPS 成長 9% 至 4.17 美元，營運比率改善 190 個基點至 58.4%。考量工業經濟在下半年表現，這些確實是非常出色的成果。

Turning to Slide 6. Fourth quarter revenue declined 8% year-over-year due to the continued impact of the softer industrial economy, intermodal lane rationalizations and coal headwinds. Merchandise revenue and volume declined 3% as growth in ag and food and minerals markets was more than offset by declines in chemicals, auto and other markets. The Philadelphia refinery explosion and GM strike accounted for more than 2/3 of the volume declines in the quarter. Intermodal revenue declined 9% on 9 -- on 7% lower volume, primarily due to the impact of lane rationalizations implemented around the 2018 peak season. We have now lapped the impact of these changes. Coal revenue decreased 22% on 17% lower volumes, with declines in both export and domestic markets due to the impact of lower export demand and benchmark prices as well as low natural gas prices. Lastly, other revenue declines resulted from lower storage revenue at intermodal facilities and lower demurrage charges.

接著看投影片 6。由於工業經濟持續疲弱、多式聯運路線精簡（lane rationalizations）以及煤炭逆風的影響，第四季營收年減 8%。商品（Merchandise）營收與運量下滑 3%，農業與食品以及礦產市場的成長，已被化學品、汽車及其他市場的下滑所抵銷。費城煉油廠爆炸事件與通用汽車（GM）罷工，占本季運量下滑的三分之二以上。多式聯運營收下滑 9%，運量下降 7%，主要是受到 2018 年旺季前後實施的路線精簡影響。我們現在已經度過（lapped）這些變動所帶來的影響。煤炭營收下滑 22%，運量下降 17%；出口與國內市場皆下滑，原因包括出口需求與基準價格走低，以及天然氣價格偏低的影響。最後，其他營收下滑則來自多式聯運設施的倉儲收入降低，以及滯期費（demurrage）收費減少。

Moving to Slide 7. Let's review our safety performance. The full year personal injury rate declined 15%, and we reduced the full year train accident rate by 41%, including setting another company record in the fourth quarter for the lowest accident rate. This progress is a result of concerted daily effort on the part of the employees performing the work. At the same time, we still see areas where additional improvement is needed. In 2020, we will maintain a rigorous safety program focused on continuing education of our workforce, further strengthening rules compliance and empowering employees to have the courage to act if they see something unsafe. As I have said before, we will never be satisfied with our performance if just one of our employees gets injured while at work.

接著看投影片 7。我們來回顧安全表現。全年人身傷害率下降 15%，全年列車事故率降低 41%，其中第四季更創下公司最低事故率的另一項紀錄。這項進展來自第一線員工每日一致且投入的努力。同時，我們仍看到需要進一步改善的領域。在 2020 年，我們將維持嚴謹的安全計畫，聚焦於持續教育訓練、進一步強化規章遵循，並賦權員工在看到不安全情況時有勇氣採取行動。如我先前所說，只要有任何一位員工在工作中受傷，我們就永遠不會對自身表現感到滿意。

Moving to Slide 8. Let's review our operating performance for the quarter. CSX set new all-time company records for both velocity and dwell, achieving significant year-over-year improvements as well as strong sequential momentum. The combination of these improved metrics helped significantly increase car miles per day as we continue to translate incremental operating efficiencies into higher asset utilization across the network. We also continue to set fuel efficiency records operating below 1 gallon of fuel per 1,000 GTM despite typical seasonal headwinds in this quarter. CSX is the only U.S. Class I railroad to have crossed this threshold. Fuel efficiency remains a key focus for the team, given the combination of financial as well as significant environmental benefits from reducing fuel consumption, and we believe opportunities remain to get even better going forward. Reducing emissions is important to us, our customers and the communities we serve, and we are proud to have been recognized by various institutions as leaders in sustainability for the transportation space.

接著看投影片 8。我們來回顧本季的營運表現。CSX 在速度（velocity）與停留時間（dwell）兩項指標上皆創下公司歷史新紀錄，年對年顯著改善，且季對季動能強勁。這些指標的改善組合，顯著提升每日車輛里程（car miles per day），我們也持續將新增的營運效率轉化為全網路更高的資產使用率。儘管本季有典型的季節性逆風，我們仍持續刷新燃油效率紀錄，燃油消耗低於每 1,000 GTM 1 加侖。CSX 是唯一跨越此門檻的美國一級鐵路（Class I railroad）。鑑於降低燃油消耗同時帶來財務效益與顯著的環境效益，燃油效率仍是團隊的重點，我們也相信未來仍有進一步提升的空間。減少排放對我們、客戶以及我們服務的社區都很重要；我們也很自豪獲得多家機構肯定，成為運輸領域永續發展的領導者。

On Slide 9, most importantly, we are translating these operational improvements into more reliable service for our customers. Trip plan performance set new records again this quarter, with 83% of our merchandise cars and 95% of intermodal containers hitting their hourly trip plan targets. Additionally, we successfully completed the rollout of individualized trip plan performance data to our merchandise and intermodal customers. Feedback on the tool has been very positive, and we believe providing this unique level of transparency to our customers will continue to differentiate CSX' best-in-class service.

在投影片 9，最重要的是，我們正把這些營運改善轉化為對客戶更可靠的服務。本季行程計畫（trip plan）達成率再次創下新紀錄，83% 的商品車輛與 95% 的多式聯運貨櫃達成其每小時行程計畫目標。此外，我們已成功向商品與多式聯運客戶全面推出個別化的行程計畫績效資料。客戶對該工具的回饋非常正面；我們相信，向客戶提供這種獨特層級的透明度，將持續凸顯 CSX 同級最佳的服務差異化。

I'll now turn it over to Kevin, who will review the financial results.

接下來我把時間交給 Kevin，由他說明財務結果。

Thank you, Jim, and good afternoon, everyone. Turning to Slide 11. I'll walk you through the highlights of the summary income statement. As Jim mentioned, total revenue was down 8% in the fourth quarter as the impact of lower intermodal and coal volume as well as reduced fuel recovery, lower other revenue and unfavorable mix more than offset the benefit of pricing gains in merchandise and intermodal.

謝謝你，Jim，各位下午好。請看投影片 11。我將帶各位快速瀏覽綜合損益表的重點。如 Jim 所提，第四季總營收下滑 8%，原因是多式聯運與煤炭運量下降，以及燃油回收（fuel recovery）減少、其他營收降低與不利的產品組合影響，這些因素的影響超過商品與多式聯運定價提升所帶來的效益。

Moving to expenses. Total operating expenses were 9% lower in the fourth quarter, a significant achievement that reflects CSX' ability to react to changing markets while delivering record service levels. Overall, these results reflect the company's sustained operating improvements and significant gains in labor and asset efficiency.

接著看費用。第四季總營運費用降低 9%，這是一項重大成就，反映 CSX 在提供創紀錄服務水準的同時，仍能因應市場變化快速調整。整體而言，這些結果反映公司持續的營運改善，以及在人力與資產效率上的顯著提升。

Labor and fringe expense was 3% lower, with average head count down 7% or nearly 1,600. Efficiency gains were strong in the quarter, partially offset by inflation, other costs and incentive compensation, including accelerations of stock compensation related to certain retirement-eligible employees.

人事與附加福利費用下降 3%，平均員工人數下降 7%，約減少近 1,600 人。本季效率提升強勁，但部分被通膨、其他成本與獎酬費用所抵銷，其中包括與部分符合退休資格員工相關的股票酬勞加速認列。

Our ongoing refinement of the operating plan continues to drive savings from fewer crew starts, enabling a 9% year-over-year reduction in the active train and engine employee base and driving a 7% improvement in crew utilization as measured by gross ton-miles per active train and engine employee.

我們持續精進營運計畫，透過減少開班（crew starts）帶來節省，使在職列車與機車員工人數年減 9%，並以每位在職列車與機車員工的總噸英里（gross ton-miles）衡量，帶動乘務使用率提升 7%。

With workforce efficiency and management execution, we reduced overtime across the operating department by nearly 15% sequentially or approximately 30% versus the fourth quarter in 2018. Additionally, the average active locomotive count was down 10% year-over-year in the quarter. The smaller fleet, combined with fewer cars online and freight car repair efficiencies, that will drive a 9% reduction in the mechanical workforce while also reducing mechanical overtime expense by over 40%. Finally, we cycled a unique benefit in the prior year related to the railroad retirement tax refund.

透過人力效率提升與管理執行，我們使營運部門加班時數季減近 15%，相較 2018 年第四季約減少 30%。此外，本季平均在役機車數量年減 10%。較小的車隊規模，加上線上車輛減少與貨車維修效率提升，將推動機務人力減少 9%，同時使機務加班費用降低逾 40%。最後，我們在去年認列了一項與鐵路退休稅退稅相關的特殊利益，而本期已不再有該項利益。

MS&O expense improved 20% versus the prior year. Continued improvements to the train plan, combined with increased network fluidity, have enabled an 8% reduction in crew travel and repositioning expenses. On the mechanical side, the lower locomotive counts also drove savings in MS&O, including a 26% reduction in locomotive materials and contracted service expense versus the fourth quarter of 2018.

MS&O費用較前一年改善20%。持續改善列車計畫，加上路網流動性提升，使乘務員差旅與調度（repositioning）費用降低8%。在機務方面，機車數量下降亦帶動MS&O節省，包括機車材料與外包服務費用較2018年第四季下降26%。

Real estate and line sales were $10 million lower in the quarter. We continue to see a pipeline of real estate opportunities. And for planning purposes, we currently expect gains in 2020 to be approximately $60 million, while the impact of these transactions will remain uneven from quarter-to-quarter. As you remember, in March of 2018, at our investor conference, we guided for $300 million in real estate sale proceeds over 3 years. We will significantly exceed this guidance with our expected 2020 results.

本季不動產與路線出售收益較去年同期少1,000萬美元。我們仍持續看到不動產機會的案源（pipeline）。就規劃而言，我們目前預期2020年的收益約為6,000萬美元，但這些交易對各季的影響仍將呈現不均衡。如各位所記得，我們在2018年3月的投資人會議上，曾指引3年內不動產出售收入為3億美元。以我們對2020年的預期結果來看，我們將大幅超越此一指引。

Fuel expense was $37 million favorable or 15% year-over-year in the quarter. These savings were driven by a 7% decrease in the per gallon price but were further aided by lower volume and significant efficiency improvements. Our enhanced focus on utilization of distributed power and energy management software, combined with train handling rules compliance, drove a fourth quarter record fuel efficiency. Full year 2019 fuel efficiency was also an all-time best for CSX.

本季燃料費用較去年同期有利3,700萬美元，年減15%。這些節省主要來自每加侖價格下降7%，並進一步受惠於運量降低與顯著的效率提升。我們更聚焦於分散式動力（distributed power）與能源管理軟體的使用，並結合列車操控規範遵循，帶動第四季燃油效率創下紀錄。2019全年燃油效率亦為CSX歷史最佳。

Looking at the other expense items. Depreciation was relatively flat year-over-year. While we did recognize $10 million in additional expense this quarter due to a 2019 depreciation study, this was more than offset by other items, none of which were individually significant. We expect depreciation expense to increase approximately $50 million to $60 million in 2020, reflecting the continued impact of the recent study as well as a higher net asset base. Equipment rents expense increased 9% as the impact of inflation and other items more than offset the benefit of lower volume-related costs and efficiency gains. Equity earnings increased $7 million in the quarter due to higher net earnings at our affiliates.

再看其他費用項目。折舊費用年比大致持平。雖然因2019年折舊研究（depreciation study），本季我們認列額外1,000萬美元費用，但已被其他項目抵銷，且其他項目個別而言皆不重大。我們預期2020年折舊費用將增加約5,000萬至6,000萬美元，反映近期研究的持續影響以及更高的淨資產基礎。設備租賃費用增加9%，因通膨與其他項目的影響，超過了運量相關成本下降與效率提升所帶來的效益。由於關聯企業淨利提高，本季權益法投資收益增加700萬美元。

Looking below the line. Interest expense increased primarily due to higher debt balances, partially offset by a lower all-in coupon. Other income decreased $4 million as the company recognized a $10 million make-whole premium on the early redemption of $500 million of long-term notes in October. This was partially offset by increased income from higher investment balances.

再看損益表線下項目。利息費用增加主要因負債餘額較高，部分被整體票息成本（all-in coupon）較低所抵銷。其他收入減少400萬美元，因公司於10月提前贖回5億美元長期票據時，認列1,000萬美元的整體補償溢價（make-whole premium）。此影響部分被投資餘額提高所帶來的收入增加所抵銷。

Income tax expense decreased $45 million due to lower pretax earnings and further aided by certain big tax matters and federal legislative benefits. Absent unique items, we would expect an effective tax rate of approximately 24.5% for future quarters.

所得稅費用減少4,500萬美元，主要因稅前盈餘較低，並進一步受惠於若干重大稅務事項及聯邦立法優惠。若排除一次性項目，我們預期未來各季的有效稅率約為24.5%。

Closing out the P&L. As Jim highlighted in his opening remarks, CSX operating income declined 8% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, reflecting the challenging volume environment. Despite the tough backdrop, the company delivered another record operating ratio of 60%, a 30 basis point improvement over the fourth quarter 2018.

總結損益表。如Jim在開場所強調，受具挑戰性的運量環境影響，CSX第四季營業利益年減8%。儘管外部環境艱難，公司仍繳出另一個創紀錄的營業比率（operating ratio）60%，較2018年第四季改善30個基點。

Finally, turning to Slide 12. Turning to the cash side of the equation on Slide 12. In 2019, capital investment declined $88 million or 5% year-over-year. While overall capital investment declined, investments in our core track, bridge and signal infrastructure saw an increase of 13% as we continue to prioritize investments that provide safe and reliable train operations. Overall, our reduced asset intensity, especially in rolling stock, has enabled us to sustain lower levels of capital investment without compromising safety or reliability. The level of PTC spending has also come down significantly in the last 2 years.

最後，請看第12頁投影片。在第12頁投影片，我們來看現金面的情況。2019年資本投資年減8,800萬美元，降幅5%。雖然整體資本投資下降，但我們在核心軌道、橋梁與號誌基礎設施的投資增加13%，因我們持續優先投入可提供安全且可靠列車營運的項目。整體而言，我們降低資產密集度，尤其在車輛（rolling stock）方面，使我們能在不犧牲安全或可靠性的前提下，維持較低的資本投資水準。PTC支出水準在過去2年也已顯著下降。

Free cash flow has continued to be a key focus for this team. Generating operating productivity while driving improved capital efficiency has produced differentiated free cash flow conversion. Growth in CSX' core operating cash flow generation, including improvements in working capital, drove a 9% increase in adjusted free cash flow to $3.5 billion in 2019.

自由現金流一直是本團隊的關鍵重點。在提升營運生產力的同時推動資本效率改善，帶來具差異化的自由現金流轉換率。CSX核心營運現金流的成長（包含營運資金改善）推動2019年調整後自由現金流增加9%，達35億美元。

We returned over $4.1 billion to shareholders in 2019, including nearly $3.4 billion in buybacks and over $750 million in dividends. Additionally, we are exiting 2019 with nearly $2 billion of cash and short-term investments, which, combined with another year of substantial free cash flow generation, provide significant opportunities to reinvest in the business and continue to return cash to shareholders.

2019年我們向股東返還超過41億美元，其中包含近34億美元的庫藏股回購，以及超過7.5億美元的股利。此外，我們在2019年底持有近20億美元的現金與短期投資；結合又一年可觀的自由現金流創造，為我們提供顯著機會以再投資於業務，並持續向股東返還現金。

With that, let me turn it back to Jim for his closing remarks.

接下來，我把時間交回Jim做結語。

Great. Thank you, Kevin. Let's turn to Slide 14 and our outlook for 2020. We expect underlying economic demand to remain relatively consistent with current levels. It took industrial activity a while to cool off, and it will take a while to heat back up. Based on this, we expect full year revenue to be flat to down 2% versus 2019. This forecast includes more than $300 million of top line headwinds from the coal business, driven primarily by lower export coal volumes and pricing.

很好。謝謝你，Kevin。我們來看第14頁投影片，以及我們對2020年的展望。我們預期基礎經濟需求將大致維持在目前水準。工業活動降溫花了一段時間，回溫也會需要一段時間。基於此，我們預期全年營收相較2019年持平至下降2%。此預測包含煤炭業務帶來超過3億美元的營收逆風，主要由出口煤運量與價格下降所致。

For the first half of the year, the merchandise business will continue to lap the higher economic level -- the higher level of economic activity from the first half of 2019, but we expect merchandise volume growth to turn positive in the second half of the year. We expect intermodal volumes to increase in 2020 as we have now fully lapped the lane rationalization impact and look to grow the reengineered network.

在上半年，商品（merchandise）業務將持續面臨去年上半年較高經濟水準——亦即2019年上半年較高的經濟活動水準——的比較基期，但我們預期商品運量成長將在下半年轉為正成長。我們預期2020年聯運（intermodal）運量將增加，因我們如今已完全度過路線精簡（lane rationalization）的影響，並將著手擴大經重新設計的路網。

As to the operating ratio, our goal is to operate as efficiently as possible while ensuring we maintain our reliable service product. Our focus is on growing the business, and in that context, we are targeting cost efficiencies that will not inhibit service. There are additional cost levers out there for us to pull, but we must make sure we are well positioned to capture new business and respond to demand when industrial production moves up.

至於營業比率，我們的目標是在確保維持可靠服務產品的同時，盡可能高效率地營運。我們的重點是成長業務；在此脈絡下，我們鎖定不會妨礙服務的成本效率提升。我們仍有其他可運用的成本槓桿，但必須確保我們具備良好條件以掌握新業務，並在工業生產回升時回應需求。

Looking at the 2019 operating ratio results, we again outperformed our real estate target of approximately $100 million a year. Adjusting for this outperformance implies a baseline operating ratio of 59%. Despite roughly $300 million of operating income headwinds in 2020 related to export coal and noncore items such as lower real estate gains, higher depreciation and lower other revenue, we still expect to realize enough incremental savings across the business to maintain or hopefully even improve our margins.

回顧2019年營業比率結果，我們再次優於每年約1億美元的不動產目標。將此超標表現調整後，意味著基準營業比率為59%。儘管2020年因出口煤與非核心項目（例如不動產收益較低、折舊較高及其他收入較低）而面臨約3億美元的營業利益逆風，我們仍預期可在全公司範圍實現足夠的增量節省，以維持，甚至希望改善我們的利潤率。

For capital allocation, our first call on cash is maintaining the integrity and reliability of our railroad. As Kevin noted, in 2019, we again significantly increased investments in rail infrastructure, spending more on rail, ties, ballast and signals, and we expect to maintain this level of investment going forward. In total, we project capital expenditures for the year of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion, in line with our 2019 targets.

在資本配置方面，我們現金的首要用途是維持鐵路系統的完整性與可靠性。如Kevin所提，2019年我們再次大幅增加鐵路基礎設施投資，在鋼軌、枕木、道碴與號誌上的支出更高；我們預期未來也將維持此一投資水準。整體而言，我們預估全年資本支出為16億至17億美元，與2019年的目標一致。

In the absence of any high-return growth projects, we expect the next principal use of cash flow will be the continued return of capital to shareholders through both dividends and additional share buybacks. Importantly, we are committing to doing so in a way that maintains our strong investment-grade credit rating.

在沒有任何高報酬成長專案的情況下，我們預期現金流的下一個主要用途，將是透過股利與額外股票回購，持續向股東返還資本。重要的是，我們承諾將以能維持我們強勁投資等級信用評等的方式來進行。

Over the last 2 years, we have accomplished many exciting things at CSX and fundamentally transformed the way the company does business. However, none of us are resting on that success. In fact, we have only scratched the surface of this company's potential. I believe the best is yet to come for CSX as we continue our journey to becoming the best run railroad in North America.

在過去兩年裡，我們在 CSX 完成了許多令人振奮的成果，並從根本上改變了公司經營業務的方式。然而，我們沒有人會因為這些成功而停下腳步。事實上，我們才剛剛觸及這家公司潛力的表面。我相信，隨著我們持續邁向成為北美營運最佳的鐵路公司，CSX 最精彩的時刻仍在前方。

Bill?

Bill？

Thank you, Jim. (Operator Instructions) With that, we will now take questions.

謝謝你，Jim。（接線員指示）接下來，我們將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Brandon Oglenski from Barclays Capital.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Barclays Capital 的 Brandon Oglenski。

Congrats on a pretty good year relative to pretty difficult conditions. Jim, or I don't know if Mark Wallace is on the line, but do you guys mind digging a little bit deeper into your macro assumptions behind the flat to down 2% revenue assumption? And I think you did call out some headwinds in coal as well. Do you mind just repeating that again?

在相當艱難的環境下，相較之下你們今年表現得相當不錯，恭喜。Jim，或者我不確定 Mark Wallace 是否在線上，但你們介意更深入說明一下，你們在「營收持平至下滑 2%」這個假設背後的總體經濟假設嗎？而且我想你們也提到煤炭方面有一些逆風。你們介意再重複一次嗎？

Yes. Sure, Brandon. It's Mark. So going into 2020, we expect a continuation of the current macroeconomic trends to continue. As we know, the consumer economy remains strong, but PMI and IDP and other macro indicators suggest that we're not going to see a near-term increase in industrial activity. IDP is projected to be relatively flat for the year. And the PMI read in December was 47.2%, which was the second worst since '09 and the fifth consecutive month signaling contraction. So given this, we're not forecasting a hockey stick recovery, but any improvement in the macro environment would be upside for us.

是的。當然，Brandon。我是 Mark。展望 2020 年，我們預期目前的總體經濟趨勢將會延續。如我們所知，消費端經濟仍然強勁，但 PMI、IDP 以及其他總體指標顯示，短期內工業活動不太可能出現回升。IDP 預估全年將相對持平。而 12 月的 PMI 為 47.2%，是自 2009 年以來第二差，也是連續第五個月顯示景氣收縮。因此，在此背景下，我們不預期會出現「曲棍球棒式」的復甦，但若總體環境有任何改善，對我們而言都將是上行因素。

Despite these challenges, we're going to continue to get better on what we can control, providing high-quality service to our customers and executing. We have not changed our outlook for long-term revenue growth. Intermodal, as we've said many times, we -- I think -- we think we can grow 2-ish x GDP and merchandise GDP plus. So we're going to stay close to our customers, watch things and see if sentiment improves throughout the year. But clearly, as I said, we're not forecasting any type of big recovery in the year.

儘管面臨這些挑戰，我們仍會持續把可控的事情做得更好，為客戶提供高品質服務並確實執行。我們對長期營收成長的展望沒有改變。就聯運而言，正如我們多次提到的，我們——我認為——我們相信可以達到約 2 倍 GDP 的成長，而一般貨運可達到 GDP 以上的成長。因此，我們會緊貼客戶、觀察情勢，看看全年情緒是否改善。但很明顯，如我所說，我們並未預測今年會有任何形式的大幅復甦。

Okay. And I guess it's a related follow-up, Mark. Can you just tell us how the marketing strategy and sales strategy has changed at CSX, especially related to intermodal and merchandise?

好的。我想這是相關的追問，Mark。你能否談談 CSX 的行銷策略與銷售策略如何改變，特別是與聯運與一般貨運相關的部分？

Yes, sure. I mean we -- in 2019, we spent a lot of time revamping the entire sales and marketing organization. We've changed a lot of people, brought in some great talent. We have actually developed a strong marketing team, no longer a pricing team, as we've discussed in the past. The marketing team is doing a fantastic job, working hard doing actual marketing activities and looking for opportunities to gain share from truck and going after them -- and providing the sales team with the leads and those opportunities to grow our share as we are leveraging this fantastic service product that Jamie and his operating colleagues have provided the sales team just to sell.

好的，當然。我的意思是——在 2019 年，我們花了很多時間重整整個銷售與行銷組織。我們更換了不少人，也引進了一些非常優秀的人才。我們實際上已建立了一支強而有力的行銷團隊，不再只是定價團隊，正如我們過去討論過的。行銷團隊做得非常出色，努力進行真正的行銷活動，尋找從卡車運輸手中爭取市占的機會並積極出擊——同時為銷售團隊提供線索與機會，以便在我們運用 Jamie 與其營運同仁所提供的卓越服務產品時，擴大我們的市占，讓銷售團隊去銷售。

On the intermodal side, again, as Jim has alluded to, we're through our lane rationalizations that began in late of 2017. We have a great intermodal network that we're leveraging, and we're excited to sell our -- as Jim said, our 95%-plus trip plan compliance -- or trip plan performance numbers and even higher in some other -- in some lanes. It's exciting, and customers are taking note, and we're executing and doing really well with our intermodal customers there.

在聯運方面，再次如 Jim 所提到的，我們已完成自 2017 年底開始的路線精簡（lane rationalizations）。我們擁有一個很棒的聯運網路並正在加以運用，我們也很期待推廣我們——如 Jim 所說——95% 以上的行程計畫遵循率（trip plan compliance）——或行程計畫績效數據，在某些其他——某些路線上甚至更高。這令人振奮，客戶也注意到了，我們正在執行並且在聯運客戶方面表現得非常好。

Next, we have Tom Wadewitz from UBS.

下一位是 UBS 的 Tom Wadewitz。

Wanted to see -- I appreciate the detail on coal, the perspective. I think that $300 million's a revenue number. Any thoughts on how we might think of that in terms of an EBIT number? Is that presumably a fairly high incremental margin? Is that a 50% incremental margin? Or how would you think about the EBIT headwind related to the coal revenue comment that you provided?

我想了解——我很感謝你們對煤炭的細節與觀點。我認為 3 億美元是營收數字。對於把它換算成 EBIT 數字，你們有什麼看法嗎？那應該是相當高的增量利潤率吧？是 50% 的增量利潤率嗎？或者你們會如何看待你們所提到的煤炭營收評論，對 EBIT 造成的逆風？

Tom, it's Kevin. We've really never broken down the profitability between our different segments, but we've always said that the coal business is obviously a very attractive business for us, and we're going to continue to move as much coal as we can. But that's probably as far as we want to go there on the profitability side.

Tom，我是 Kevin。我們其實從未拆分過不同業務分部之間的獲利能力，但我們一直都說，煤炭業務對我們而言顯然是非常有吸引力的業務，我們也會持續盡可能多運送煤炭。但在獲利能力方面，我們大概就先說到這裡。

Okay. What about, I guess, thought in terms of the pricing assumption you have for seaborne? I mean it seems like you see Queensland benchmark look like -- I think it went down to -- or the market went down to the $130 area. You've kind of, I think, come back to $150. Is there any sense within that coal headwind kind of what you're assuming broad-brush for the seaborne prices for met?

好的。那麼我想問一下，你們對海運煤的定價假設是怎麼看的？我的意思是，看起來你們看到昆士蘭基準價似乎——我想它曾下滑到——或市場下滑到 130 美元左右。你們似乎——我想——又回到 150 美元。在你們提到的煤炭逆風之中，對冶金煤（met）的海運價格，你們大致假設是什麼？

Yes. Tom, it's Mark again. The met benchmarks -- and again, the met is about 65% of our export coal. The benchmark prices have continued to decline as the global production has weakened. And currently, they're about $150. As a reminder, our contracts reprice quarterly. So you should expect to see a bit of a drag on the RPU into Q1. But that's kind of where it is, and we'll see what happens throughout the year. As a reminder, this time last year, the met prices were -- coming into the first quarter of the year, were about $220.

是的。Tom，我又是 Mark。冶金煤基準——再提醒一下，冶金煤約占我們出口煤的 65%。隨著全球產量走弱，基準價格持續下滑。目前大約在 150 美元。提醒一下，我們的合約是按季重新定價。因此你應該會看到 RPU 在第一季會有一些拖累。但大致就是這樣，我們會看看全年情況如何發展。再提醒一下，去年這個時候，冶金煤價格——在進入第一季時——大約在 220 美元。

So you just assume they kind of stay where they are today. Is that the right way to think about it?

所以你們就是假設它們大致維持在今天的水準。這樣理解對嗎？

Correct. Yes. So we'll see the -- overall, for coal, we're going to see a step-down in the first quarter, but sequentially throughout the rest of the year, we don't think it's going to get any worse on the RPU.

正確。是的。因此，整體而言，煤炭在第一季會出現一個下台階，但就全年其餘時間的逐季變化來看，我們認為 RPU 不會再進一步惡化。

Ken Hoexter from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch 的 Ken Hoexter。

And just maybe, Jim, looking at the expense side, you've kind of accelerated cost here. But if volumes are going to be down, maybe you can talk about, if most of the PSR gains are over, how do you think about moving along with reducing expenses in light of these reduced volumes in contrast to your statement about being cautious about not going too far to be prepared for the rebound and specifically like any employees?

我想也許，Jim，從費用端來看，你們這裡似乎加速了成本。但如果運量將會下滑，也許你可以談談：如果 PSR 的收益大多已經實現，你們如何看待在運量下降的情況下繼續降低費用？這與你提到的「謹慎不要削減過頭，以便為反彈做好準備」之間如何權衡？尤其是像員工方面？

Sure. Yes, I'll ask Jamie to give a little color on it here. But there are significant amount of cost reduction embedded in that guidance that we provided just to offset the inflation and other cost increases that we set out in terms of the increases in depreciation, et cetera. So -- but this game is not over, and we're going to do the first and more -- foremost thing is to make sure that we're well positioned to provide a really good quality product to our customers in the future. And again, I'll let Jamie offer a little more color on the specific initiatives.

當然。是的，我會請 Jamie 在這裡補充一些說明。我們所提供的指引中，已包含相當多的成本削減，用以抵消通膨以及其他成本上升，例如我們提到的折舊增加等等。所以——但這場仗還沒結束，我們首先、也是最重要的事情，是確保我們在未來能處於良好位置，為客戶提供真正高品質的產品。同樣地，我會讓 Jamie 就具體措施再補充一些說明。

Absolutely. Look, Ken, we're continuing to look for good improvements this year on fuel, definitely towards our car hire end of things. We're finding, as we become more fluid out there and the railroad moves better, our bigger yards are able to do more for us. So we're looking at getting rid of more out of route miles. Our locomotive fleet continues to go in a great direction as we utilize and get more miles out of our engines, which, again, turns into fewer asset costs with respect to repairs and parts. And really, it just keeps on chipping away each and every day we're getting involved and getting into what's going on out in the ballast line.

當然。你看，Ken，我們今年仍在持續尋找在燃油方面的良好改善，特別是朝向我們的車輛租賃端。我們發現，隨著我們在現場的運作更靈活、鐵路運行更順暢，我們較大的編組場能為我們做更多事。因此我們正著手進一步消除更多的路線里程。我們的機車車隊持續朝很好的方向發展，因為我們在使用上更有效率、讓引擎跑出更多里程，而這同樣會轉化為在維修與零件方面更少的資產成本。而且說真的，這就是每天一點一滴地改善；我們越來越深入參與、了解道碴線現場正在發生的事情。

And that's probably the most important piece that the team is doing is, as we're getting on the ballast line and we're walking out there and looking at each industry, looking at how we switch them, how can we do things better, and by getting out of headquarters and making sure that all of the right team, including myself, is out there each and every week, taking a look at what we can do different and better, not only does it give us that opportunity to continue to reduce costs but continue to improve the product that we're able to supply Mark and his team to get out there and gain some more business as we keep on moving along.

而且我認為團隊正在做的、可能最重要的一塊是：當我們走上道碴線、在現場步行查看每一個產業客戶，看看我們如何為他們調車、如何把事情做得更好；並且走出總部，確保包含我在內的正確團隊每週都到現場，看看我們能做哪些不同與更好的事。這不僅讓我們有機會持續降低成本，也能持續提升我們能提供給Mark和他團隊的產品，讓他們在我們持續前進的同時，能到外面爭取更多業務。

But I guess, maybe I was trying to be more specific on the employee side, right? So employees were down over 1,500 year-on-year. Is that something you would see accelerating at this point given the volume declines? Or is that holding? I just want to understand, given Jim's commentary over not taking out too much to be prepared for the rebound.

不過我想，我可能是想在員工這一端更具體一點，對吧？所以員工人數年減超過1,500人。在運量下滑的情況下，你認為這個趨勢在此時會加速嗎？還是會維持？我只是想了解，考量Jim提到不要削減過多、以便為反彈做好準備。

Well, as we've said before, our focus is on labor cost, not just head count reduction. We made a significant reduction in the labor cost and not just targeting heads. So we'll continue to look for ways to reduce our labor cost. And as we did in this quarter and as we'll do in every quarter that we have to manage the company, we'll do what's necessary around here based upon what we see in terms of business activities. Right now, we've kind of given you guidance that we think, especially on the merchandise side of the business, there's going to be some reasonable stability sequentially in terms of where the volume line should be and that -- and an increase on the intermodal side, and we'll manage the head count according to that. If it goes sideways or downward, you guys get the numbers every week. And if you miss a week or something, we'll point it out to you at which direction the numbers are going in.

嗯，正如我們之前說過的，我們的重點是勞動成本，而不只是人頭數的減少。我們已經大幅降低勞動成本，而不是只針對人數。所以我們會持續尋找降低勞動成本的方法。而且就像我們本季所做的、以及我們每一季在管理公司時都會做的，我們會根據我們看到的業務活動情況，在這裡採取必要的措施。目前我們大致給了你們指引：我們認為，特別是在商品業務方面，運量走勢在環比上會有一定程度的合理穩定，而——在聯運方面會有所增加；我們也會依此來管理人力。如果走勢持平或下滑，你們每週都會拿到數據。如果你們漏看了一週之類的，我們也會提醒你們數字的走向。

Great. And just a quick follow-up, Jim. The arrivals really jumped, or maybe, Jamie, from 53% on time 2 quarters ago to 85% now. Is there something beyond just execution that you're kind of -- that you want to highlight, I guess, on the positive side, something really strong performance there?

很好。再快速追問一下，Jim。到達準點率大幅跳升——或者說，Jamie，從兩季前的53%準點到現在的85%。除了執行力之外，是否還有什麼你想特別強調的正面因素？我想說，這真的是很強的表現。

So I mean, look, the team is executing. The guys are out on the ground taking a look at everything we can. We'll probably -- I can tell you right now, we're going to crank the times a little bit. We're going to pull some times out of our trains. We're going to get things moving faster on the network with respect to cutting out some hours on how long it takes to get across the network. And that number might bump down a little bit into the next quarter because we tightened things up. So that's a gauge for us to make sure that our assets and people get to the other end, so we can turn them back. But at the same time, when I see that number start to go up, it tells myself and the team that, on the service design side, we can take a look at removing some hours and times from our trains getting across the network.

所以我的意思是，你看，團隊確實在執行。大家都在現場把我們能看的事情都看一遍。我們可能——我現在就可以告訴你——我們會把時刻再拉緊一點。我們會從列車時刻裡抽掉一些時間。就縮短穿越整個路網所需時間、砍掉一些小時數，讓路網運行更快。而因為我們把事情收緊了，這個數字在下一季可能會稍微回落一點。所以這對我們來說是一個衡量指標，用來確保我們的資產和人員能到達另一端，然後再把它們周轉回來。但同時，當我看到這個數字開始上升，就會告訴我和團隊：在服務設計方面，我們可以考慮從列車跨網運行的時間表中再移除一些小時與時間。

Allison Landry from Crédit Suisse.

瑞士信貸（Crédit Suisse）的Allison Landry。

So obviously, this year, you have a number of headwinds that you outlined, and that was really helpful. But I just want to understand -- and also, you've talked about more to do on the cost side. But just broadly speaking, do you need a more normal volume environment in order to really leverage those costs and get the OR even lower, somewhere in the mid to high 50s? How should we think about that in terms of the different revenue environments?

很明顯，今年你們面臨不少你們已經概述的逆風，這非常有幫助。但我想了解——另外你們也談到成本端還有更多可以做。不過更宏觀地說，若要真正把這些成本槓桿化、把營業比率（OR）再壓低到大約中高50%的區間，你們是否需要一個更正常的運量環境？在不同的營收環境下，我們應該如何看待這件事？

Yes, Allison, it's Kevin. Clearly, we've outlined more cost savings that we think, and there's runway to continue to do that. The model we're setting up here is we're positioning ourselves for growth and really to leverage that when the growth comes. And so I think we're very excited about the model we've created. There's a lot of leverage in this model to really drop the revenue at a high incremental margin. That's what we're looking forward as Mark and the team are diligently pursuing growth opportunities for us.

是的，Allison，我是Kevin。很明確地，我們已經提出我們認為還有更多的成本節省空間，而且仍有持續推進的跑道。我們正在建立的這個模式，是在為成長做定位，並且在成長到來時真正把槓桿效益發揮出來。因此我們對我們打造出的模式感到非常振奮。這個模式有很大的槓桿，可以讓營收以很高的增量利潤率落到獲利上。這正是我們所期待的，因為Mark和團隊正勤勉地為我們追求成長機會。

So -- but as Jim just explained, too, if the volume environment gets worse than what we expect, we all know we have to react. We did it last year. We came into 2019 thinking revenue was going to be $500 million higher. We had to react after in the second quarter. And Jamie and the team pulled together. We came up with a new plan based on the volume that we saw from that point on and we adjusted. I think we did a great job. So we'll do it again if we have to.

所以——但正如Jim也剛剛解釋的，如果運量環境比我們預期更糟，我們都知道就必須反應。我們去年就做過。我們進入2019年時原本以為營收會高出5億美元。我們在第二季之後不得不做出反應。Jamie和團隊把大家集合起來。我們根據從那個時間點起所看到的運量，提出了一個新計畫並做了調整。我認為我們做得很好。如果有需要，我們會再做一次。

And the math will just work out in terms of what the margins are, should the business levels come back. We're building a tremendous company here with great operating leverage to take advantage of incremental volumes when they come back.

而且如果業務水準回升，從利潤率的角度來看，數學自然會算得通。我們正在打造一家非常出色的公司，具備很強的營運槓桿，能在增量運量回來時加以利用。

Okay. That's definitely helpful. And maybe just on that point but specifically to your expectations for intermodal volume growth this year. If truck rates remain weak for some period of time through 2020, is there a point at which you might be willing to give a little bit on price to maybe drive some of that traffic into the network? Or will you just wait for capacity to shore up and then wait for the volume?

好的。這確實很有幫助。也許就這點再問一下，但更具體到你們對今年聯運運量成長的預期。如果卡車運價在2020年期間仍維持疲弱一段時間，你們是否會在某個時點願意在價格上讓步一點，以把部分貨量導入你們的路網？還是你們會等運能收緊之後，再等待運量回來？

No, listen, Allison, we're not going to be cutting prices to grow the business. I think the team here is -- CSX has worked way too hard to do everything we've done to provide our customers with exceptional service out there. A large portion -- the vast majority of our intermodal network on the domestic side is under long-term contracts anyway. We're not looking to grow by just going out and slashing rates. That's not our game plan. That's not our -- that's not what we're going to do. But the truck environment is still pretty loose. It's about -- as we saw it last quarter, we don't think there's going to be any meaningful snapback or tightening there. But clearly, if that happens, it will be a demand-driven environment event, and that would be good for intermodal if that happened.

不，聽著，Allison，我們不會為了成長業務而降價。我認為這裡的團隊——CSX為了做到我們所做的一切、為客戶提供卓越的服務，已經付出太多努力。我們國內聯運路網中很大一部分——絕大多數——本來就都在長期合約之下。我們不打算靠著出去大砍費率來成長。那不是我們的計畫。那不是我們——那不是我們會做的事。但卡車市場環境仍然相當寬鬆。大致上——就像我們上季看到的，我們不認為那裡會出現任何有意義的快速反彈或收緊。但很明顯，如果真的發生，那將會是由需求驅動的環境事件；而如果那樣發生，對聯運會是好事。

Amit Mehrotra from Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Kevin, just want to quickly confirm the $300 million for coal, that was a revenue number, right?

Kevin，我只是想快速確認一下煤炭的 3 億美元，那是營收數字，對吧？

Absolutely, yes, that was a revenue number.

完全正確，是的，那是營收數字。

Okay. Yes, that makes sense. And it obviously implied 15% decline. Any help on how we can -- maybe you can provide some color on what the split between the volume and revenue per yield on that, what's the makeup of that. And then I thought you had said last quarter that D&A expenses were going to tick up sequentially by about $50 million. We obviously didn't see that. Just wondering what -- if there's any impact to the first quarter. And what should we think about from a sequential -- from a D&A perspective?

好的。是的，這就說得通了。而且它顯然意味著下滑 15%。能否協助我們——也許你可以補充一些細節，關於其中量與每單位收益（yield）所帶來的營收之間的拆分，那個組成是什麼。另外我記得你上季說過，D&A 費用會按季增加大約 5,000 萬美元。我們顯然沒有看到那樣的變化。想請教一下——第一季是否會有任何影響。以及從按季的角度——從 D&A 的角度我們應該怎麼看？

Yes, I'll handle the D&A question. I might pass off the coal question to Mark.

好的，我來回答 D&A 的問題。煤炭的問題我可能交給 Mark。

Do you want to D&A first?

你想先談 D&A 嗎？

Yes. On the depreciation, we did expect from the life study to have a little bit of uptick here in the fourth quarter, which was offset by some smaller items. So we basically netted out to 0. I did guide for 2020 in the $50 million to $60 million range incremental depreciation year-over-year. So we'll see some bump-up from the life study and some incremental capital spend next year. That's my expectation. So no change to the 2020 expectation there.

是的。關於折舊，我們確實預期因使用年限研究（life study）在第四季會有些微上升，但被一些較小的項目所抵銷。所以基本上淨額為 0。我對 2020 年的指引是折舊年增增加約 5,000 萬到 6,000 萬美元。因此明年我們會看到因使用年限研究以及一些增量資本支出而帶來的上升。這是我的預期。所以 2020 年的預期沒有改變。

Amit, on the coal side, let me really run through the coal environment, and hopefully, we can get to the -- your answer without me answering it just specifically. But starting with export, as we've talked about before, it's been a tale of 2 cities between met and thermal. As we guided through the year up to 2019, our expectation for export coal was -- it was around 40 million tons. We slightly missed that number coming in around 38 million. I tried to round it up to 39 million, but Kevin won't allow me to. So it would have to be 38 million. But we now expect this year to deliver low 30s for 2020. As I said, we expect the declines both for met and thermal but probably larger for thermal than on the met side.

Amit，關於煤炭這一塊，讓我先把煤炭環境完整講一下，希望在我不直接針對你的問題作答的情況下，也能讓你得到答案。先從出口來看，如同我們之前談過的，冶金煤（met）與動力煤（thermal）呈現兩種截然不同的情況。在我們一路給到 2019 年的指引時，對出口煤的預期大約是 4,000 萬噸。我們略低於該數字，實際約 3,800 萬噸。我試著把它四捨五入到 3,900 萬噸，但 Kevin 不讓我這麼做。所以只能是 3,800 萬噸。但我們現在預期 2020 年會落在 3,000 多萬噸的低段。如我所說，我們預期冶金煤與動力煤都會下滑，但動力煤的降幅可能會比冶金煤更大。

On the thermal side, again, it's 1/3 of our export shipments, where we've seen large volume declines, given low natural gas prices and mild winters in Europe. Obviously, in fact, in the coal demand there and the API2 benchmark, as we talked about a little bit earlier, it's $55 per ton, so really low. On the met side, again, mostly a price story, not a volume story, but a price story. Then back to my comment earlier, the prices have continued to slide down to about $150 per ton today. So that's kind of what we see on the export coal front.

在動力煤方面，同樣地，它約占我們出口出貨量的三分之一；由於天然氣價格偏低以及歐洲冬季溫和，我們看到出貨量大幅下滑。顯然，當地煤炭需求以及 API2 基準價（如我們稍早提到）為每噸 55 美元，確實非常低。在冶金煤方面，仍然主要是價格的故事，不是量的故事，而是價格的故事。回到我先前的評論，價格持續下滑，今天大約到每噸 150 美元。這大致就是我們在出口煤炭方面看到的情況。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just 1 follow-up for me. Kevin, we saw, I guess, a pretty sizable uptick in the labor and fringe per employee. I know there was -- you called out some acceleration incentives stock comp. So I'm just wondering what's the right way to think about that line item in 2020 because you have regular inflation, but you guys have also been kind of focusing on managing overtime. And with the volume environment being what it is, there could be some cross currents there. So if you could just talk about that. And if I missed it, just help us think about how head count will be at the end of 2020 as well.

好的。這非常有幫助。然後我再追問一個問題。Kevin，我們看到每位員工的勞務與附加福利成本似乎有相當明顯的上升。我知道你提到有一些加速激勵與股票薪酬。所以我想請教，2020 年該如何看待這個科目，因為你們有正常的通膨因素，但你們也一直在著重管理加班。而在目前這樣的量的環境下，可能會有一些相互拉扯的因素。所以如果你能談談這點就太好了。另外如果我漏聽了，也請協助我們理解 2020 年底的人員編制會是什麼樣子。

Yes, you talked about the incentive comp has a little bit of headwind to that number when you calculate it. The other thing that you have to remember in the fourth quarter is we have a lot of our capital teams particularly on the engineering side that go over into vacation. And once -- a lot of their labor through the year is going towards capital, but once they go on vacation, it starts to hit our OE expense. So there is a bit of seasonality to our per employee cost. And so that's what you saw there in the fourth quarter.

是的，你提到的激勵薪酬在你計算時，確實會對那個數字帶來一些逆風。另外你必須記得第四季還有一點：我們很多資本團隊，特別是工程端，會去休假。而且——他們一年中很多勞務成本是歸屬到資本化，但一旦他們去休假，這些成本就會開始反映在我們的 OE 費用中。所以每位員工成本有一些季節性。這就是你在第四季看到的情況。

But it was a year-over-year number. It was up over 4% year-over-year, right?

但那是年對年的數字。年對年上升超過 4%，對吧？

Yes, I think some of that impact as well. And then obviously, the inflation that hits that within that number, there's a little bit of mix as well. But going into next year, I wouldn't see any significant rise in our per employee cost. What was the other part of the question?

是的，我想那也有一些影響。然後顯然，通膨也會在那個數字裡反映出來，另外也有一些組合（mix）因素。但展望明年，我不會預期每位員工成本會有任何顯著上升。你問題的另一部分是什麼？

Just the year-end head count in 2020.

就是 2020 年底的人員編制。

Yes. I think look, we have a lot of momentum, obviously, that we've carried through the 2019 that will go into 2020. We'll continue to focus on managing attrition. There's a process here where we look at every job that comes available and ask ourselves, given the new model, whether that job is necessary. So we'll continue to evaluate those. With a lower volume, there's opportunities on the operating side that we'll find. So we'll continue to manage the labor side. It's not all about head count. It's also about overtime, which we saw some great success in fourth quarter. We have big targets next year to continue to drive the overtime down as well. So it's across the board on the labor savings.

是的。我想你看，我們顯然在 2019 年累積了很多動能，會延續到 2020 年。我們會持續專注於管理自然流失（attrition）。這裡有一套流程：每當有職缺出現，我們都會檢視並問自己，依照新的模式，那個職位是否必要。所以我們會持續評估。在較低的運量下，我們在營運端也會找到一些機會。因此我們會持續管理勞動力面向。這不全然只是人頭數。也包括加班，我們在第四季看到很好的成效。明年我們也有很大的目標，要持續把加班降下來。所以勞務節省是全方位的。

Brian Ossenbeck from JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

So Mark, I wanted to ask you about the pricing environment, especially given the softness here to start the year in rail volumes and the industrial economies you mentioned. Last quarter, you gave some indication of same-store sales and how they were trending. So just given the backdrop and what we're seeing on the rail indices from a pricing perspective, I wanted to see what you thought was kind of the current market temperature when it came to price, realizing you just commented on not gaining volume for price. So just what you see in the market will be helpful.

Mark，我想請教你定價環境的問題，特別是考量到年初鐵路運量偏弱，以及你提到的工業經濟走軟。上季你有提到一些同店銷售（same-store sales）以及其趨勢。所以在這樣的背景下，從定價角度、以及我們在鐵路指數上看到的情況，我想了解你認為目前市場對價格的「溫度」大概如何；也理解你剛剛評論過不會為了價格去爭取運量。所以你在市場上看到的情況會很有幫助。

Yes. No, I was going to repeat that, but we're not. So -- but within merchandise and intermodal, our same-store sales pricing in Q4 was about in line with what we saw in Q3, which, again, was the strongest, I think -- I said back then was the strongest we had seen in the past 3 years. And our contract renewals -- the pricing on our contract renewals that came up in the quarter exceeded our same-store sales pricing. So clearly, the team is doing a great job to value the product for the service that we're offering to customers. And we're pleased, and I am pleased with the great work the team is doing on the pricing side.

是的。不，我本來要重申那一點，但我們不會。所以——不過在商品運輸（merchandise）與聯運（intermodal）方面，我們第四季的同店銷售定價大致與第三季相當；而第三季——我當時也說過——我認為是過去三年來我們看到最強的一次。而且我們在本季到期續約的合約——其續約定價高於我們的同店銷售定價。所以很明顯，團隊在為我們提供給客戶的服務、對產品進行價值定價方面做得非常好。我們很滿意，我也對團隊在定價端所做的出色工作感到滿意。

And in terms of the inflation indices, do you have a lot of exposure in the contracts that are just going to naturally reset lower in this coming year? Or is that not...

就通膨指數而言，你們在合約中是否有很大一部分曝險，會在接下來這一年自然地往下重設？還是並非如此……

No. I mean the -- on the thermal side, those are annual contracts. So they will reset sort of now on the met. As I talked about earlier, they reprice every quarter, but clearly so, the met benchmarks being 140-ish or 150-ish, $150 a ton in Q4, we'll sort of reset those contracts in Q1. So yes.

沒有。我的意思是——在動力煤那一端，那些是年度合約。所以它們大概會在現在、依照冶金煤那邊來重設。如我先前提到的，它們每季重新定價一次；但很明顯，冶金煤基準在140左右或150左右，第四季是每噸150美元，我們會在第一季把那些合約重設。所以是的。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

So I think you talked earlier about $300 million of operating profit headwinds. So I presume that's coal plus any of the discrete cost stuff. I just want to review that discrete cost thing. So I got real estate and depreciation. But maybe, Kevin, can you just walk us through any of the other discrete costs, headwinds that you see in 2020?

所以我想你先前提到大約3億美元的營業利益逆風。所以我推測那是煤炭加上任何一次性的成本項目。我只是想再確認一下那些一次性成本。所以我記下來的是不動產和折舊。但也許，Kevin，你能否帶我們梳理一下2020年你看到的其他一次性成本／逆風？

Yes. I think we -- obviously, we called out the real estate sales this year. In 2019, we realized roughly $160 million. The guidance for that is $60 million which I talked about in my opening comments. The depreciation step-up of $50 million to $60 million versus what we saw in 2019 are the items outside of coal that we really kind of called out.

可以。我想我們——很明顯，我們點出了今年的不動產出售。2019年我們實現了大約1.6億美元。而該項指引是6,000萬美元，我在開場評論中提過。折舊上調相較於2019年增加5,000萬到6,000萬美元，這些是煤炭以外我們真正特別點出的項目。

Anything on the other railway revenue or the other income that you want us to be thinking about?

那其他鐵路收入或其他收入方面，有沒有什麼你希望我們特別留意的？

Yes. I think where we're run rating today is probably a consistent -- a good way to think about it going into next year. So there will be a little bit of headwind on the other revenue side as our customers -- demurrage costs have lowered, gone down over the year. So we'll have a little bit higher other revenue in the first half of the year and kind of normalized to where we are right now.

有。我想以我們目前的運行水準來看，作為進入明年的思考方式應該是一致——也是個不錯的方式。因此在其他收入端會有一點逆風，因為我們客戶的——滯期費成本在這一年中降低、下滑了。所以我們在上半年會有稍高一些的其他收入，之後會回到目前這個水準附近的常態。

Okay. And then just lastly, when we get back to revenue growth, what are the right incremental margins? It sounds like you're positioning yourself, you said, for incremental margins. Is that 50%, 60%, 40%? How should we think about incremental margins when we get back to revenue growth?

好的。最後，回到營收成長，合理的增量毛利率（incremental margins）是多少？聽起來你們在為增量毛利率做布局。是50%、60%、40%？當我們回到營收成長時，增量毛利率應該怎麼看？

Probably the best incremental margins that other businesses would be envious of.

大概會是讓其他企業都會羨慕的那種最佳增量毛利率。

At some level, it doesn't matter where the business comes but we have a lot of trains that have capacity. So obviously, in those situations on the merchandise manifest business, when we're adding a car to the back of the train, existing train, there's not a lot of cost you add to it. A little bit of car hire, a little bit of fuel. But I think the incremental margins will be quite attractive.

在某種程度上，業務從哪裡來其實不那麼重要，因為我們有很多列車仍有運能。所以很明顯，在那些情況下，就雜貨（merchandise）編組列車業務而言，當我們在既有列車、現有列車尾端再加掛一節車廂，新增的成本並不多。一點點車輛租用費，一點點燃料。但我認為增量毛利率會相當吸引人。

Chris Wetherbee from Citi Research.

Citi Research 的 Chris Wetherbee。

I wanted to ask about the revenue line. So if you take out the $300 million from coal of that headwind, it sure seems like you're guiding revenues kind of up a little bit to maybe up 2.5% or so. We know we have some headwinds from other revenue with some of the ancillary stuff from earlier in the year last year. How should we be thinking about maybe that cadence? Is it merchandise volume that improves as we go through the year in addition to intermodal volume? Maybe if you could help sort of bridge some of that gap because I would have thought mix might have been a bit negative, too. So that -- any color would be helpful there.

我想問一下營收這條線。所以如果把煤炭帶來的3億美元逆風拿掉，看起來你們指引的營收是小幅上升，可能上升約2.5%左右。我們知道其他收入會有一些逆風，因為去年上半年有一些附屬項目（ancillary stuff）。我們應該怎麼看這個節奏？是不是雜貨運量會在一年中逐步改善，另外再加上聯運（intermodal）運量？也許你可以幫忙把這個落差稍微銜接一下，因為我原本也以為產品組合（mix）可能會有點負面。所以——任何補充說明都會很有幫助。

Yes. Sure, Chris. So we talked about coal being a significant headwind, down sort of mid-double digits, as Jim alluded to. In intermodal revenue, we expect, in 2020, we're going to return to a GDP-plus environment as we lap our lane rationalizations. And as I said many times, our service product is strong with a 95%-plus trip plan compliance. So I think very good momentum there. On merchandise, we exited 2019 really well positioned to grow with a strong service product. And I think even despite the tough environment and the tough comps year-over-year, we can see a slight improvement to revenue growth in the first half and with a stronger second half.

是的。當然，Chris。所以我們談到煤炭是一個顯著的逆風，如 Jim 所暗示的，大約是中段雙位數的下滑。在聯運營收方面，我們預期2020年會回到「高於GDP」的環境，因為我們將跨越（lap）先前的路線精簡調整。而且如我多次提到，我們的服務產品很強，行程計畫遵循率（trip plan compliance）達到95%以上。所以我認為那裡的動能非常好。在雜貨方面，我們在2019年結束時，憑藉強勁的服務產品，處於很好的成長位置。我認為即使在艱難的環境與嚴峻的年對年比較基期下，我們仍可在上半年看到營收成長略有改善，且下半年會更強。

Okay. So maybe inherently, ex coal volume up for the full year, does that sound right?

好的。所以也許本質上，扣除煤炭後的全年運量是成長的，這樣理解對嗎？

I would say that, yes, absolutely.

我會說是的，絕對如此。

If it hadn't -- again, in the merchandise business segment, if it hadn't been for the 2 specific items which I pointed out, the refinery explosion and the GM strike, we would have been close to flat this year in terms of volumes in merchandise, which is significantly different than the rest of the industry. And so we're reasonably positive. As the business environment begins to, at what point in time, I don't know when that's going to happen. This is not the new norm. This is kind of a natural evolution, things go down and then they go back up. When these things start to go back up, we would expect to see merchandise volumes begin to increase. And intermodal, we have always said we believe we have a fantastic intermodal franchise. We have fantastic intermodal service. And we had to bite the bullet over a 2-year period to reengineer the franchise to make it as better as we go into 2020. We knew that's what we were doing. And now we're going to see, as Mark said, hopefully growth, 2x GDP. So put those together, I mean, 60 -- 80% of our business should be doing extremely well. Unfortunately, all 4 discrete segments of the coal business are getting hit simultaneously, which is difficult for us to overcome.

再說一次，在雜貨業務部門，如果不是我指出的兩個特定事件——煉油廠爆炸以及通用汽車（GM）罷工——我們今年雜貨運量本來會接近持平，這與產業其他公司相比有顯著差異。因此我們相當正面。至於商業環境何時開始——在某個時間點——我不知道那會在什麼時候發生。這不是新的常態。這是一種自然演進，事情會下滑，然後又會回升。當這些事情開始回升時，我們預期雜貨運量會開始增加。而聯運方面，我們一直都說我們相信自己擁有非常出色的聯運特許經營（franchise）。我們有極佳的聯運服務。而我們必須在兩年期間咬緊牙關，重新設計這個特許經營，使其在進入2020年時變得更好。我們知道我們正在做這件事。而現在我們將會看到，如 Mark 所說，希望能有成長，達到GDP的2倍。所以把這些放在一起，我的意思是，我們60%—80%的業務應該會表現得非常好。不幸的是，煤炭業務的四個獨立分項同時受到衝擊，這讓我們很難克服。

Next, Bascome Majors from Susquehanna International.

下一位，Susquehanna International 的 Bascome Majors。

I wanted to go back to the service levels. You improved your trip plan performance in the carload business by 7 full points in this quarter. It has been pretty steady in the mid-70s before this gap higher. Can you dig a little more into how you're able to drive such a big improvement in 4Q, if there's any -- if that's sustainable or something lumpy there. And as you look forward, is the conversation with your customers changing? Is -- are you feeling that this yields excess carload business growth over some period of time? Can you just tell us how that's going on the ground?

我想回到服務水準的問題。你們本季在整車（carload）業務的行程計畫表現提升了整整7個百分點。在這次跳升之前，它一直相當穩定地落在70%中段。你能否再深入談談，你們如何能在第四季推動這麼大的改善——是否有任何一次性因素——以及這是否可持續，或是有些波動性。另外往前看，你們與客戶的對話是否正在改變？你們是否感覺這會在一段時間內帶來額外的整車業務成長？能否跟我們說說第一線的情況如何？

I'll start off with the product that we were able to create here, and then let Mark touch on some of the feedback he's getting from the customers. But look at it, it -- we've got a fantastic team of railroaders out there with CSX. And we've gone through this transition over the past 2.5 years, almost 3 years. And trip plans was a difficult piece for us to work on as a group. We tackled the first piece of intermodal, which Mark had just mentioned, the team has been knocking it out of the park, over 95%. We still haven't achieved internally what we want to achieve for a trip plan on the merchandise side. But it is day in and day out, grinding discussions, talking with the field, working inside and out with each and every one of our operators, in order to move up each percentage point. So we have, I'd like to say, the most stringent trip plan with respect to a 2-hour buffer, and that's it. We measure empties, which I don't believe any other railroad does. And we work really hard, hand-in-hand, 7 days a week, driving that product. So I would say that we're going to continue to see that percentage improve as we continue to prepare and get Mark's team ready to jump out there and make those sales.

我先從我們在這裡能夠打造出的產品談起，接著再請 Mark 談談他從客戶那裡收到的一些回饋。但你看看它——我們在 CSX 有一支非常出色的鐵路人團隊在外面。而且在過去 2.5 年、將近 3 年的時間裡，我們完成了這段轉型。而行程計畫（trip plans）對我們來說，一直是團隊合作中相當難處理的一塊。我們先攻克了聯運（intermodal）的第一部分，正如 Mark 剛剛提到的，團隊表現非常亮眼，達到 95% 以上。在一般貨運（merchandise）這一端，我們內部仍尚未達到對行程計畫所期望的水準。但我們每天都在持續推進：反覆討論、與現場溝通，並與每一位營運人員內外協作，為的就是把每一個百分點往上拉。所以我想說，我們的行程計畫要求可能是最嚴格的：只給 2 小時緩衝，就這樣。我們也衡量空車（empties），我不認為其他鐵路公司有這麼做。我們一週 7 天緊密合作、非常努力地推動這個產品。因此我認為，隨著我們持續準備並讓 Mark 的團隊做好出去搶單的準備，這個百分比會繼續改善。

At intermodal, we measure to the minute.

在聯運方面，我們是精確到分鐘來衡量。

Yes, intermodals are absolutely...

是的，聯運絕對是……

It's to the minute, not within 2 hours. So if we miss by a minute, it's a trip plan failure. October 1, we rolled out trip plans, as Jim said in his opening remarks, to our customers. On ShipCSX, in December, early December, I think on the second. We rolled the trip plan performance out to all our merchandise customers. So they have total unprecedented visibility to every car, whether it's a load, whether it's an empty on the CSX network. They have unprecedented visibility to their trip plans to what we're doing, how we're doing in every lane, every car. And customers love the tool, something they've never -- no railroad has ever type -- provided this type of visibility. Listen, it's been having an impact. I think going back to Jim's comments a few minutes ago, if you look at our carload performance in Q4, we were down 3%. And the industry was down 5%. If you take out the PES, the impact of the PES refinery and the GM strike, we were flat in merchandise. Rest of the industry, down 5%. Clearly, customers are responding to that type of level of performance and rewarding us with their -- more of their business. And we're winning share every day from trucks, and we're going to continue to push. And as these -- as this performance, listen, 83% for the quarter was great. We're hitting high 80s today and low 90s with some customers, and we're going to continue to -- I know Jamie's not satisfied, and the team's not satisfied with that. So as we get better, continue to push and become more truck-like and provide great service, then we're going to be rewarded with more business.

是精確到分鐘，不是 2 小時內即可。所以如果我們差 1 分鐘，就算行程計畫未達成。10 月 1 日，我們如 Jim 在開場致詞所說，向客戶推出了行程計畫。在 ShipCSX 上，於 12 月、12 月初，我記得是 2 號左右。我們把行程計畫績效推送給所有一般貨運客戶。因此他們對 CSX 網路上的每一節車輛都有前所未有的可視性，不論是重車（load）或空車。他們對我們的行程計畫、我們在做什麼、做得如何，在每一條運輸走廊（lane）、每一節車上，都有前所未有的可視性。客戶很喜歡這個工具——他們從未……沒有任何一家鐵路公司曾經——提供過這種程度的可視性。坦白說，這已經產生影響。回到 Jim 幾分鐘前的評論，如果你看我們第四季的整車（carload）表現，我們下滑 3%。而整個產業下滑 5%。如果把 PES（煉油廠）事件的影響以及 GM 罷工的影響剔除，我們的一般貨運是持平。產業其他公司則下滑 5%。很明顯，客戶正在回應這種績效水準，並以——把更多業務交給我們——來回饋我們。我們每天都在從卡車手上贏得市占，而且會持續推進。而且隨著——隨著這項表現，聽著，本季 83% 已經很不錯了。我們現在已經做到接近 80% 後段、甚至對部分客戶達到 90% 初段，我們會繼續——我知道 Jamie 不滿足，團隊也不滿足於此。所以當我們做得更好、持續推進、變得更像卡車並提供優質服務時，我們就會獲得更多業務回報。

The one piece to remember on trip plans for us, what Mark has and his team has taken beyond what I think anyone ever thought trip plans were going to be, trip plans are more of an internal metric. So we could see how we were doing and look at costs as well as getting hour by hour across the network. By putting this out to the customers, it put the pressure definitely on the operating team. But guess what, we're hitting it. And look, we've got a little bit more work to go. But we've taken this beyond what I think anyone ever thought trip plans could be.

關於行程計畫，有一點要記住：Mark 和他的團隊把行程計畫推進到我想超出任何人原先的想像；行程計畫原本更像是一個內部指標。讓我們能看見自己做得如何，並同時檢視成本，以及逐小時掌握整個網路的狀況。把這個資訊對客戶公開，確實對營運團隊帶來壓力。但你猜怎麼著，我們做到了。而且你看，我們還有一些工作要做。但我們已經把這件事推進到我想任何人都沒想過行程計畫能做到的程度。

And going from whatever the number was over the last couple of quarters, say 75% to 85% in terms of the carload trip plan compliance, 2 years ago, that number was 35%. The reason we have to give our visibility in tracking mechanisms to our customers is so that they will trust us to try our new service product that proves to them that it is as reliable today as a truck. When a couple of years ago, your trip plan compliance was 35%, and you were trying to get a customer to switch from moving his freight in a truck to rail, he didn't have a lot of confidence that the -- his freight was going to get to his customer on time when your on-time performance was 35%. So that's why it's so important that we focus on this metric and that we're so confident that this number be reliable and consistent. But even more importantly, that the customer believes that, that product is reliable and consistent so he's willing to shift. He's always been willing to pay the 15% premium to buy the reliability in a truck. We need to show him through this transparent tool that he can trust us to get his product there when we said we were going to get it there.

而且把整車行程計畫達成率從過去幾季不管是多少——比如從 75% 提升到 85%——兩年前，那個數字是 35%。我們必須把可視性與追蹤機制提供給客戶，原因是要讓他們信任我們、願意嘗試我們新的服務產品，並向他們證明：它今天的可靠度可以和卡車一樣。兩三年前，當你的行程計畫達成率只有 35%，你想讓客戶把貨物從卡車改用鐵路運輸時，他對——在你準點表現只有 35% 的情況下——他的貨能否準時送達客戶，並沒有太多信心。所以這就是為什麼我們如此重視這個指標，也為什麼我們非常有信心要讓這個數字可靠且一致。但更重要的是，客戶要相信這一點，相信這個產品可靠且一致，他才願意轉移運量。他一直都願意為卡車的可靠性支付 15% 的溢價。我們需要透過這個透明的工具向他展示：他可以信任我們，能在我們承諾的時間把他的產品送達。

Justin Long from Stephens.

Stephens 的 Justin Long。

So I was wondering if you could give a little bit more color around what the guidance assumes for the quarterly cadence of consolidated volumes. Is it the right way to think about it that we should see something like a low- to mid-single-digit decline in the first half and then something like a low single-digit growth number in the back half as the comp fees?

我想請問，能否再多補充一些細節，說明你們的指引（guidance）對合併運量（consolidated volumes）季度節奏（quarterly cadence）的假設是什麼？是否可以這樣理解：上半年會看到類似低到中個位數的下滑，而下半年則會看到類似低個位數的成長，因為比較基期（comp）費用？

Yes. Clearly, we're lapping some -- we're going up against some tough comps here in the first quarter as I -- in the second quarter of the first half, as I said, we had a pretty good environment in the first half of 2019. But we've got a great service product, and we're going to do as much as we can. As I said, I think we're going to be able to do well in intermodal in the first half and in merchandise, hopefully eke out some positive volume growth in merchandise. But we will, as we sort of get into the back half of the year, we think that it will be a little bit stronger than the first half, for sure.

是的。很明顯，我們在第一季——以及我所說的上半年中的第二季——會遇到一些艱難的比較基期；因為 2019 年上半年的環境相當不錯。但我們有很好的服務產品，我們會盡一切所能。如我所說，我認為上半年我們在聯運會表現不錯，而在一般貨運方面，希望能勉力擠出一些正向的運量成長。但當我們進入下半年時，我們認為表現肯定會比上半年更強一些。

Yes. I think Justin, you'll see throughout the year, going -- first quarter will mark the low point from a growth perspective, that's probably across all of the -- not only revenue but operating income, EPS across the board. And then from there -- and this is a lot of -- just based on the comps as we get in the back half of the year, lapping some of the coal and some of the other headwinds that we saw in 2019 that growth should improve.

是的。我想 Justin，你會看到全年走勢是——第一季從成長角度來看會是低點，這大概涵蓋所有面向——不只是營收，營業利益、EPS 也都會是全面性的低點。然後從那之後——而這很大程度上——只是基於比較基期：當我們進入下半年，會開始消化 2019 年看到的部分煤炭以及其他逆風因素，因此成長應該會改善。

Okay. But when you put together all the pieces, do you think in the second half of this year, volumes can be up on a year-over-year basis? Is that the assumption?

好的。但把所有因素綜合起來看，你認為今年下半年運量可以在年對年（year-over-year）基礎上轉為成長嗎？這就是你們的假設嗎？

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

Okay. Great. And then secondly, on free cash flow. Obviously, that's a highlight of the business right now. So I wanted to ask, in 2020 and beyond, what's the right framework, in your mind, to be thinking about for the free cash flow conversion percentage? And then also on buybacks, Kevin, maybe you could provide a little color on the magnitude you're expecting in 2020 relative to what we saw last year.

好的。很好。第二點，關於自由現金流。顯然，這是目前業務的一大亮點。所以我想請教，對於2020年及之後，在您看來，思考自由現金流轉換率百分比的正確框架是什麼？另外關於庫藏股回購，Kevin，也許你可以補充一下，你們預期2020年的回購規模相較於去年會是什麼程度。

Yes. Free cash flow conversion, our goal is to remain -- keep that high. We have some headwinds in terms of cash tax rate that will -- over time, that's going to trend higher. We're going to do everything we can on -- to offset that with working capital initiatives and really taking a look at our capital program and how efficient we can be on that side to save dollars there. So a lot of opportunities. I don't think we have any plans to go back to the old ways of very low free cash flow conversion that we saw historically, from not only CSX but the industry. So we -- that's something we pride ourselves in where we continue to strive to maintain and have every plan to.

是的。自由現金流轉換率方面，我們的目標是維持——保持在高水準。我們在現金稅率方面會有一些逆風——隨著時間推移，這個趨勢會走高。我們會盡一切努力——透過營運資金的改善措施來抵消，並且真正檢視我們的資本支出計畫，以及在那一端我們能做到多有效率，以在那裡節省成本。所以有很多機會。我不認為我們有任何計畫回到過去那種非常低的自由現金流轉換率——那是我們歷史上不僅CSX、整個產業都曾出現的情況。所以我們——這是我們引以為傲的一點，我們會持續努力維持，而且完全有這樣的計畫。

On the buyback, we are taking in $2 billion of cash, as I mentioned, end of the year. It gives us a tremendous amount of flexibility. There's no reason for us to retain $2 billion of cash on our balance sheet. So that allows us some flexibility going next year to be opportunistic when the markets present opportunities and we'll do that. We'll also look at the dividend as well. So we have a history of returning cash to shareholders, and we'll continue to do that.

關於回購，如我提到的，我們在年底會收到20億美元的現金。這給了我們極大的彈性。我們沒有理由在資產負債表上保留20億美元的現金。因此，這讓我們在明年有一些彈性，可以在市場出現機會時採取更具機會性的作法，我們也會這麼做。我們也會一併檢視股利。我們一向有將現金回饋股東的歷史，我們也會持續這麼做。

David Vernon from Sanford Bernstein.

Sanford Bernstein 的 David Vernon。

Mark, I just wanted to dig in a little bit more on the expectation that intermodal's going to get better. It sounds like you were thinking that in the front half we might start to see a return to growth. How are your intermodal partners kind of talking to you about the outlook for the business in terms of their ability to actually attract share? We're coming off a year where domestic intermodal is down, call it, whatever, 5%, 6%. What's going to flip that switch that's going to get that volume to start coming back on to the network?

Mark，我想再深入一點了解你們對聯運業務會轉好的預期。聽起來你們認為在上半年可能會開始看到恢復成長。你們的聯運合作夥伴在談到業務前景時，是如何跟你們溝通他們實際吸引市占的能力？我們剛經歷一年國內聯運下滑，大概是5%、6%之類。會是什麼因素扭轉局面，讓這些運量開始回到網路上？

Yes. Let me split it up a little bit and talk both intermodal on the international side and the domestic side. But the international business was down less than domestic. We're still continuing to see -- and going into the early part of 2020, and hopefully, for the rest of the year, we're continuing to see good growth there on the international side with [our land port] strategy and some new service offerings with our customers. But the overall market remains soft. But we are doing well with picking up some business there. I think our -- listen, again, customers are -- don't -- responding to our repositioned network, it's moving faster and more reliably and more efficiently. And they like the service, and we're doing well to grow the intermodal franchise, and we're lapping those lane rationalizations. We're -- those are all behind us now, and we're growing from that. So again, we're -- we think given the environment and given the service product that we've got and we can grow this thing.

是的。我把它稍微拆開來談，分別談國際與國內的聯運。不過國際業務的下滑幅度小於國內。我們仍然持續看到——進入2020年初，並希望在今年其餘時間，我們在國際端仍持續看到不錯的成長，這得益於[我們的陸港]策略，以及與客戶推出的一些新服務方案。但整體市場仍然疲弱。不過我們在那裡拿到一些業務的表現不錯。我認為我們——聽著，再次強調，客戶正在——對我們重新定位後的網路做出回應，它運行更快、更可靠、也更有效率。他們喜歡這樣的服務，我們在擴大聯運版圖方面做得不錯，而且我們也正在跨越那些路線精簡的比較基期。我們——那些都已經成為過去，我們正從那裡開始成長。所以再說一次，我們——我們認為在目前環境下，加上我們擁有的服務產品，我們可以把這塊業務做大。

Okay. Maybe just as a follow-up, as you think about the improved service, obviously, some businesses that are contract. Is that going to give you a better leverage to kind of get some even better than sort of run rate pricing going forward? Or should we be thinking about that as being kind of the standard and you're going to be using service more to drive growth than to really try to extract more value from the existing book?

好的。也許追問一下，當你們想到服務改善時，顯然有些業務是合約型的。這是否會讓你們在未來更有槓桿，去取得比目前「常態」定價更好的價格？或者我們應該把它視為一種標準，而你們會更多用服務來推動成長，而不是試圖從既有客戶組合中榨取更多價值？

Well, we attack it from all fronts, right? We're going to -- we've got long-term contracts with our customers. And there's great escalators in there, and we're going to -- but we're going to continue to grow with them and bring on more business and get price where we can get price. And again, we're not giving away our service. And so we're going to attack it from all fronts.

我們會從各個面向同時著手，對吧？我們會——我們與客戶有長期合約。合約裡有很好的調價機制，我們會——但我們也會持續與他們一起成長、導入更多業務，並在能取得價格的地方爭取價格。而且再說一次，我們不會白白送出我們的服務。所以我們會從各個面向同時推進。

Cherilyn Radbourne from TD Securities.

TD Securities 的 Cherilyn Radbourne。

Just wanted to ask a question in terms of performance evaluation and how you differentiate between performance improvements that may be associated with lower traffic volumes on the network versus improvements that would be associated with sustainable process optimization that would remain, once volume growth returns.

我想問一個關於績效評估的問題：你們如何區分哪些績效改善可能是因為網路上的運量較低所帶來，與哪些改善是來自可持續的流程最佳化——也就是一旦運量成長回來仍能維持的改善？

Yes. I think when we look at productivity, the way we measure it here internally, it is a lot easier to drive productivity in a growing volume environment. Because, first, you got to -- in a declining market, you got to offset the decline in revenue before you even generate any productivity. So the fact that we're able to offset the headwinds that we have talked about a lot on this call, implies a lot of productivity this year. And it's a lot of smaller things that are adding up to big numbers across the board. When I look at the overtime percentages and I look at a lot of different things, those aren't being driven by lower volumes. So that's a lot of blocking and tackling. Even at the D&A side, we're getting a lot more productivity out of our employees than we ever have. So we measure productivity internally. It's certainly hard to -- it would -- if I -- I can tell you right now, we would have realized a lot more productivity this year in an increasing volume market, if that was the outlook for us.

是的。我認為當我們看生產力時，我們在內部衡量的方式是：在運量成長的環境下，推動生產力其實容易得多。因為首先——在市場下滑時，你必須先抵消營收下滑，之後才談得上產生任何生產力。所以，我們能夠抵消我們在這通電話中多次談到的那些逆風，意味著今年有很大的生產力提升。而且是很多小事情累積起來，最終在各方面形成很大的數字。當我看加班比例、以及很多不同的事項時，那些並不是由較低的運量所驅動。所以那是很多基本功的落實。即便在D&A那一端，我們從員工身上取得的生產力也比以往任何時候都高。所以我們在內部衡量生產力。這當然很難——如果我——我現在可以告訴你，如果我們面對的是運量增加的市場，今年我們本來可以實現更多的生產力，若那是我們的前景的話。

We can -- I mean I look -- we can look at the metrics, and to Kevin's point, give me a growing environment, and it's easier to run the railroad right now. We're in tough conditions to put up the numbers that we're putting. And ultimately, if you take a look at the metrics and where the metrics are sitting, how do you know that things are -- that we're improving even in the environment we're in, the cash is falling out? If we were hitting metrics and the cash wasn't falling out, then there would be a point made, "Hey, it's easier, and it's all because of volume based." But I think we've proven that along with our metrics going in the right direction, the cash is falling out in the savings.

我們可以——我的意思是我看——我們可以看各項指標；就像Kevin說的，給我一個成長的環境，現在要把鐵路營運好會更容易。我們是在艱困的條件下仍交出我們目前這些數字。而最終，如果你看看這些指標以及它們所處的位置，你怎麼知道在我們所處的環境中事情仍在改善、而現金正在釋放出來？如果我們達成了指標但現金沒有釋放出來，那就可以說：「嘿，這比較容易，而且全都是因為運量因素。」但我認為我們已經證明，隨著指標朝正確方向前進，現金也在以節省的形式釋放出來。

And many of these changes are transformational in nature. And therefore, sustainable. We are not just kicking the can down the road. We are fundamentally, in every respect, changing the way we run this company. And these changes that are resulting in these efficiency gains are, to a large degree, going to stay with us as we go forward.

而且其中許多變革本質上是轉型性的。因此，是可持續的。我們不是只是在把問題往後拖。我們是在各個層面、從根本上改變我們經營這家公司的方式。而這些帶來效率提升的變革，在很大程度上，將會在我們未來前進的過程中持續伴隨著我們。

Okay. All of that makes sense. Maybe just by way of a quick follow-up. As operating ratios across the industry start to converge and maybe it's in the high 50s, what metrics do you think that investors should pivot to start focusing on to differentiate between the various franchises, whether it's ROIC, free cash flow conversion or some other metric?

好的。這些都說得通。也許我再快速追問一下。隨著全產業的營運比率開始趨於收斂、可能落在接近 50% 高段時，您認為投資人應該轉而聚焦哪些指標，來區分不同的特許經營（franchise）表現？例如 ROIC、自由現金流轉換率，或其他指標？

Cash flow, we talk about it a lot around here. I think we're pretty proud of our cash flow conversion. It's not easy to both improve OR and generate a lot of cash flow. And I think we've proven that. So that's really the differentiator that we see out there. And as we shift longer term, we -- we're here to drive operating income growth as well. So those are the 2 things that I think we'll be focused on.

現金流，我們在這裡談很多。我想我們對自己的現金流轉換率相當自豪。要同時改善 OR 並產生大量現金流並不容易。而我認為我們已經證明做得到。所以這就是我們看到的真正差異化因素。而從更長期來看，我們——我們也會在這裡推動營業利益成長。所以我想我們會聚焦的就是這兩件事。

Jordan Alliger from Goldman Sachs.

高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Jordan Alliger。

Just a quick question. We talked a lot on the coal side about the export front. Can you touch base a little bit on the domestic side? And how much of that $300 million top line headwind might be tied to that? Or is it really all on the export side?

我有個簡短問題。我們在煤炭方面談了很多出口端的情況。能否也稍微談談國內端？那 3 億美元營收端的逆風，有多少可能與國內端相關？還是其實幾乎都在出口端？

Yes. No -- sure. On the domestic side, there's some impact. I don't think it's going to be as much of a negative impact in 2020 as we've seen going forward. Net gas prices, unfortunately, have remained stubbornly low, dropping to about $2 recently. But -- and we did not see the surge in prices that we saw in the fourth quarter of 2018 when they hit like $4 for a couple of weeks. But for coal -- for utility coal to be competitive, prices would have to increase from the current levels and the total electric demand would need to increase. As we all know, in many locations, coal is used for peaking generation. And so our upside is always seen or many cases seen when we have these extreme weather conditions and cold. Unfortunately -- or fortunately for the people on the call in the northern half of the country, you're not seeing much cold weather, but that's bad for utility coal. And so the natural gas capacity has not been stretched so far this year. But for 2020, we do see and we do expect that our utility tonnage will be relatively flat as we have had some wins offsetting some market declines.

是的。不——當然。在國內端確實有一些影響。我不認為 2020 年的負面影響會像我們往後看到的那麼大。不幸的是，天然氣價格仍然頑固地維持在低檔，最近降到大約 2 美元。但——我們沒有看到 2018 年第四季那種價格飆升，當時曾有幾週漲到接近 4 美元。不過就煤炭而言——要讓公用事業用煤具備競爭力，價格必須從目前水準上升，而且整體用電需求也需要增加。眾所周知，在許多地區，煤炭用於尖峰發電。因此，我們的上行空間往往——或在很多情況下——出現在極端天氣與嚴寒時。不幸的是——或者對於在美國北半部的與會者來說是幸運的——你們今年沒有遇到太多寒冷天氣，但這對公用事業用煤是不利的。因此，今年迄今天然氣產能並未被拉到很緊。但就 2020 年而言，我們確實看到、也預期我們的公用事業煤炭運量將大致持平，因為我們有一些勝出案（wins）可抵銷部分市場下滑。

And just a quick follow-up on the coal pricing. Does domestic coal revenue per carload, I mean does that stay positive? Or is it positive? I shouldn't say stay, I'm not sure. That's the question.

再快速追問一下煤價。國內煤炭每車皮（carload）的營收，是不是仍然為正成長？或者它是正的嗎？我不該說「仍然」，我不確定。我的問題是這個。

There's going to be -- they're -- on the domestic utility?

會有——他們——是指國內公用事業那邊？

Yes.

是的。

Well, again, it will be down just given where things are. Those contracts are multiyear contracts with our customers but there are price adjustments. But we have minimums in the contracts with LDs tied to them, but we do expect a little bit of pressure on coal, on utility RPU.

嗯，再說一次，考量目前的情況，它會下滑。那些合約是與客戶簽的多年期合約，但其中有價格調整機制。不過我們在合約裡有最低量（minimums），並且與 LDs 掛鉤，但我們確實預期公用事業煤炭的 RPU 會承受一些壓力。

Ben Hartford from Baird.

Baird 的 Ben Hartford。

Kevin, just kind of perspective as we move beyond 2020, and the model evolves, one -- toward one of a growth focus. As this operating plan takes hold, this 59% OR target here for the full year for 2020, and as Mark had said, we're near trough level -- cycle trough levels for PMI ratings and industrial-related activity, to what extent do you view 59% or thereabout, as a representative trough or a floor for this model's OR as we look ahead to the next decade or so? What -- why would not that be the case?

Kevin，想請教一個觀點：當我們展望 2020 年之後、模型演進到更偏向成長導向時——隨著這個營運計畫逐步落實、2020 全年 OR 目標為 59%，而且如 Mark 所說，我們接近景氣谷底——PMI 指數與工業相關活動都在循環谷底附近——在您看來，59% 左右在未來十年左右是否可視為這個模型 OR 的代表性谷底或下限？為什麼不會是這樣？

Why wouldn't 59% be the floor?

你是問為什麼 59% 不會是下限？

Why couldn't 59% be the cycle floor for dealing with trough levels of PMI ratings and we're looking out toward growth? Why shouldn't this 59% OR or thereabout be viewed as a representative trough for a floor for this model's OR going forward?

為什麼 59% 不能作為景氣循環的下限，對應 PMI 在谷底、而我們往外看是成長？為什麼不應該把 59% 左右的 OR 視為這個模型未來的代表性谷底或下限？

You say floor and you're meaning that it -- why wouldn't it get better from here?

你說「下限」的意思是——為什麼它不會從這裡變得更好？

Correct, yes. Yes. Can we treat this as a cycle trough, this 59%, the low point?

對，沒錯。是的。我們能否把這個 59% 當作景氣循環谷底、也就是低點？

Well, I think as we look longer term, and maybe Jim has some comments on this as well. We're really going to focus on growing operating income and generating EPS growth in the most effective way. We talked about the leverage we have, we've built in this model. So we think, given everything that Jamie and his team have done, that we can drop through revenue at a very high incremental margin. So that implies a pretty good outcome on the margin side. But we'll have to think about what's the most effective way is to grow operating income in -- at a very high return. And so those are the things that, I think, as we get further out, we'll have to contemplate. But it's -- we have a better service, so clearly, getting price for service is what we'll go after. And -- but it's really operating income and cash flow that we -- that we'll be striving for in the next few years beyond 2020.

嗯，我想從更長期來看，也許 Jim 也可以補充。我們真正要聚焦的是以最有效的方式推動營業利益成長並帶動 EPS 成長。我們談過我們在這個模型中建立的營運槓桿。所以我們認為，鑑於 Jamie 和他的團隊所做的一切，我們可以讓營收以非常高的增量利潤率（incremental margin）落到獲利上。這意味著在利潤率面會有相當不錯的結果。但我們也必須思考，什麼才是在高報酬下推動營業利益成長的最有效方式。因此我想，隨著我們看得更遠，這些都是我們必須審慎考量的事情。不過——我們的服務更好，所以很明顯，我們會去爭取以服務換取價格（getting price for service）。而——但真正我們在 2020 年之後幾年會努力追求的是營業利益與現金流。

Right, at [42] or so margins. And as Kevin said, easier for that number as our -- for our margins to improve or our operating ratio to go down with increasing volumes. Our long-term strategy is to continue to leverage our service, regain business that has been lost from the industry and while maintaining what I consider to be extremely good margins and grow our operating income, cash flow and earnings per share of the company.

對，大約在 [42] 左右的利潤率。而如 Kevin 所說，隨著運量增加，我們的利潤率更容易改善、或營運比率更容易下降。我們的長期策略是持續運用我們的服務優勢，拿回產業中流失的業務，同時維持我認為極佳的利潤率，並成長公司的營業利益、現金流與每股盈餘。

Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Ravi Shanker。

Just a quick one, again on coal. You said that you probably hit the worst of it in 1Q and then things kind of normalize from there, if the benchmark stays where it is. Given your -- the kind of take-or-pays you have on the volume side and kind of the way the contracts reset, if the benchmark stays where it is for, let's say, the next 3 to 5 years, like forever, is all of the coal impact going to be isolated in 2020? Or is there like another leg to come in 2021?

再一個簡短問題，還是關於煤炭。你提到你們可能在第一季觸及最糟情況，之後如果基準價維持在目前水準，情況就會從那裡開始正常化。考量你們在運量端的 take-or-pay（照付不議）安排，以及合約重設的方式，如果基準價在接下來 3 到 5 年都維持在目前水準——比如說一直都這樣——煤炭的影響是否會全部集中在 2020 年？還是 2021 年還會有下一波影響？

Oh, my gosh, Ravi. Coal benchmark stay here. It's not -- that's -- you're not going to be happy.

天啊，Ravi。煤炭基準價如果一直維持在這裡。那不——那——你不會開心的。

Sorry. I'm making you do math at the end of the call.

抱歉。我讓你在電話會議最後還要算數學。

Yes. Listen, I'm not -- I'm in no position to speculate what's going to happen to coal internationally, whether it's thermal, met. I mean again, thermal's going to be driven internationally by the demand for coal -- utility coal in India and other places, Turkey, Pakistan, it's going down. It's -- in the next 10 years, it's probably not going to be -- we're not going to be shipping any more to Europe. And on the met side, again, it's industrial production worldwide, it's cyclical. These things...

是的。聽著，我——我沒有立場去推測國際煤炭價格會怎麼走，不論是動力煤、冶金煤。再說一次，動力煤在國際上將由印度及其他地區（如土耳其、巴基斯坦）對煤炭——公用事業用煤——的需求所驅動，而那是在下降的。在未來 10 年，它可能不會——我們可能不會再往歐洲運更多了。而在冶金煤方面，同樣地，它取決於全球工業生產，具有景氣循環性。這些事情……

Right, right. I get that. I mean I get that. We don't really have any visibility on where coal is going to go. But my point was if it didn't change starting tomorrow, if it just stayed where it was, are your contracts all going to just lap and kind of completely reset in 2020? Or is there more to come in 2021?

對，對。我明白。我是說我明白。我們其實看不太到煤價接下來會往哪裡走。但我的重點是，如果從明天開始它都不變、就維持在目前水準，你們的合約是不是都會在2020年跑完一輪、然後某種程度上在2020年完全重置？還是2021年還會有更多影響？

Yes. No, no. They would -- it would keep going. They will lap.

是。不，不。它們會——會繼續。它們會跑完一輪。

There's not a contract that's going to expire in 2020 that -- where there's another shoe to drop, so to speak, on it if the commodity -- underlying commodity prices just stay the same. I think what the volumes today represent is what the underlying commodity prices are at. So all else equal, there's no long-term contracts within our export coal business that are set to expire after 2020.

沒有任何一份會在2020年到期的合約——也就是說，如果大宗商品——標的商品價格就維持不變，還會有所謂「另一隻鞋要落下」的情況。我認為目前的量所反映的，就是標的商品價格所在的水準。所以在其他條件相同下，我們出口煤炭業務裡，沒有任何設定為在2020年之後到期的長期合約。

Got it. That's what I was getting at. Maybe just one more. Kind of, you guys implied that you're going to see significant incremental margins when the volumes come back. That kind of implies that you haven't necessarily downsized your operations completely for the cyclical volume environment you're seeing right now, maybe some of the other rails have. If volumes don't come back until the back half of next year, at what point do you guys say that, "Hey, maybe we can cut some more on the cost side here?"

了解。這就是我想問的。也許再問一個。你們暗示當運量回來時，會看到顯著的增量利潤率。這某種程度上表示，你們不一定已經把營運規模完全縮到符合目前看到的景氣循環下的運量環境，可能其他鐵路公司有。如果運量要到明年下半年才回來，你們會在什麼時點說：「嘿，也許我們可以在成本端再多砍一些？」

We watch this. We watch this daily. It was kind of like -- let's just kind of transition back 6 months ago, when everybody was saying, "Man, the second half of 2019 is just going to be gangbusters." And we were saying, "I don't see it." And we were responding accordingly and making the appropriate steps on the cost side to make sure that we delivered almost double-digit earnings growth this year in an extremely difficult environment. And we'll do the same this year as we go each and every month and assess where we are. And are the volumes better than or worse than what we expect them to be right now, and we'll respond accordingly.

我們會看這個。我們每天都在看。有點像——我們回到6個月前，當時大家都在說：「天啊，2019年下半年一定會非常火熱。」而我們在說：「我看不出來。」我們也因此做出相應反應，並在成本端採取適當措施，確保我們在極其艱難的環境下，今年仍能交出接近兩位數的獲利成長。今年我們也會一樣，每個月逐一檢視並評估我們所處的位置。運量是比我們目前預期的更好還是更差，我們都會相應調整。

Walter Spracklin from RBC Capital Markets.

RBC資本市場的Walter Spracklin。

I want to go back, Jim, you were talking a lot about the improvement in operating metrics that you had and how that's improving service and Mark's certainly echoing that. You mentioned about how you're using that to convince the truck customer to switch over. What evidence are you seeing that they are capitulating here and moving over? Are they waiting for some other factor to consider? Is it -- or are you going to -- do you look at 2020 and see an opportunity for a notable share gain against truck coming up into 2020? Any thoughts on share gain opportunity against truck?

我想回到你剛才提到的，Jim，你談了很多你們營運指標的改善，以及這如何提升服務，Mark也確實呼應了這點。你提到你們正用這些來說服卡車客戶轉過來。你們看到哪些證據顯示他們正在讓步、並開始轉移？他們是在等其他因素再決定嗎？或者——你們看2020年，是否看到一個在2020年對卡車取得顯著市占提升的機會？對於相對卡車的市占提升機會，有什麼想法？

Oh, yes. Well, let me -- real briefly. It took us decades. It took the railroad industry decades of poor service to drive the business off the railroads onto the trucks. We are not going to get [the railroad] business off the highway back onto the railroad in 2 weeks. So we're going to have to earn it, that's what we were talking about earlier. We're going to have to not only put up good metrics, but prove to the customers that these metrics are as equal to a truck and that this business model is sustainable. In the past, I'm sure they've had a lot of railroad guys that have walked in and said, "Hey, trust me, take your business off the truck, put it on the railroad. I'll get it there on time."

喔，有的。我簡短說一下。我們花了數十年。鐵路產業花了數十年糟糕的服務，才把生意從鐵路趕到卡車上。我們不可能在兩週內就把[鐵路]業務從公路拉回鐵路。所以我們必須靠自己去贏回來，這就是我們先前在談的。我們不只要拿出好的指標，還要向客戶證明，這些指標可以跟卡車一樣，而且這個商業模式是可持續的。過去我相信他們遇過很多鐵路業務員走進去說：「嘿，相信我，把你的貨從卡車移到鐵路上。我會準時送到。」

And the next thing you know, 6 months later, it wasn't performing as well. And that customer lost business as a result of his conversion from truck to rail. He is skeptical and rightly so. We need to prove to that customer that this is a long-term, as I said, structural, fundamental change in the way we do business. And when we do that, we'll continue to see where we grow our merchandise and intermodal volumes at a rate that is faster than the industry. Is that going to be 1% greater than the industry? Is that going to be 1.5% greater than the industry? It isn't going to be 12% greater than the industry. It's going to be incremental, quarter after quarter after quarter, year after year after year, where we have outsized growth relative to the industry, that's going to prove this business model.

結果你知道的，6個月後表現就沒那麼好。而那位客戶因為從卡車轉到鐵路，反而因此流失了生意。他會懷疑，而且這是合理的。我們需要向那位客戶證明，這是一個長期的——如我所說——結構性、根本性的改變，改變我們做生意的方式。當我們做到這點時，我們會持續看到我們的商品車與聯運運量，以快於產業的速度成長。會比產業高1%嗎？會比產業高1.5%嗎？不會比產業高12%。它會是逐步的，一季又一季、一年又一年，我們相對產業有更突出的成長，這將證明這個商業模式。

Let me turn around and ask that same question now against your rail competitor. We've talked to a number of your customers, they've confirmed the service metric improvement. Jim, you've had experience of running, working with a company that has had a significantly better operating ratio than its competitor. Is that an opportunity for share gain against rail if your operating metrics, as they've shown here, continue to improve? And certainly, relative to the competitor, are we -- could we see a more notable upward shift in your share gain opportunity against your rail competitor?

我現在把同樣的問題反過來，問你們相對鐵路競爭對手的情況。我們跟你們一些客戶談過，他們確認服務指標確實改善。Jim，你有在一家營運比率明顯優於競爭對手的公司經營、合作的經驗。如果你們的營運指標如目前所示持續改善，這是否是相對鐵路的市占提升機會？而且相對競爭對手而言，我們是否——可能看到你們相對鐵路競爭對手的市占提升機會出現更明顯的上移？

Well, I think it's different than the -- our business environment here in the eastern half of the United States, as I would say, is significantly different than the business environment in Canada. We have billions of dollars of opportunity available to us from truck. Customers today that are shipping products with us in a boxcar that are also shipping 50% to 60% of their product in a truck because the truck is more reliable. I want that opportunity, which is billions. It is crazy for me to go over there and price my service as a commodity to try and pick up a couple of million dollars off the other railroad. That's the business model that has run the railroad industry down for decades, and that is not the business model that we are pursuing.

嗯，我認為這跟——我們在美國東半部的商業環境，如我所說，與加拿大的商業環境有很大不同。我們有數十億美元的機會可從卡車那邊取得。今天有些客戶用棚車跟我們運貨，但同時也有50%到60%的產品用卡車運，因為卡車更可靠。我想要的是那個以十億計的機會。如果我跑去那邊把服務當成大宗商品來定價，只為了從另一家鐵路多搶幾百萬美元，對我來說太荒謬了。那種商業模式已經讓鐵路產業沉淪了數十年，而那不是我們要追求的商業模式。

Allison Poliniak from Wells Fargo.

Wells Fargo的Allison Poliniak。

Just want to talk you. You made a lot of progress on the operations over the past few years. And you talked about the levers that you can pull in 2020. If you -- as you look at those, which ones do you feel could be the most challenging, particularly in this environment, if there is anything?

我想跟你談一下。你們在過去幾年營運方面取得了很大進展。你也談到2020年你們可以拉動的槓桿。如果你——當你看這些槓桿時，哪些你覺得可能是最具挑戰的，特別是在目前這種環境下？如果有的話。

Well, the levers are always challenging. As we said, if we wanted to just take -- and I've been saying this for the last 6 to 8 -- we have been saying this for the last 6, 8, 10 months or more. If the business had dropped off 10%, 12% in a couple of weeks in a traditional kind of recession scenario, it would have been easier for us to go in there and find the equivalent amount of cost and taken it out of the company. When it was a slow drip, week after week, month after month, 1% here, 1.5% here and it continued down, down, down, it was more difficult for us to respond to that because we were fearful that we would -- and as we expressed again here today, we would cut service in areas where we were -- in an attempt to reduce cost. And we would perpetuate the downward trend by driving more business off the railroad and onto the highway. So that is the challenge. Where can we cut and where can we -- and maintain our levels of service? If the volumes continue to decline, it creates opportunities for us. And at some point in time, you just get a little more aggressive. We have not done that. And -- but we have the ability, if it was necessary.

嗯，這些槓桿一向都很具挑戰性。如我們所說，如果我們只是想採取——而我在過去 6 到 8——我們在過去 6、8、10 個月甚至更久一直在說這件事。如果在傳統衰退情境下，業務在幾週內下滑 10%、12%，那我們會更容易進去找出等量的成本並把它從公司裡移除。但當它是緩慢下滑、週復一週、月復一月，這裡 1%、那裡 1.5%，而且一路往下、往下、往下時，我們就更難回應，因為我們擔心——正如我們今天在這裡再次表達的——我們會為了降低成本而在某些領域削減服務。而我們會把更多業務從鐵路趕到公路上，從而延續下滑趨勢。所以這就是挑戰。我們可以在哪裡削減、又在哪裡——同時維持我們的服務水準？如果運量持續下滑，反而會為我們創造機會。而在某個時間點，你就會變得更積極一些。我們還沒有那麼做。而且——但如果有必要，我們有這個能力。

Great. And then just trying to be optimistic, if we do get maybe a more significant inflection in the back half, does any of those levers sort of get moderated or pulled in a little bit?

很好。那再試著樂觀一點，如果我們在下半年確實出現更明顯的拐點，那些槓桿是否會在某種程度上被緩和，或是稍微收回一些？

Well, we're really -- we are optimistic. We like to think we're realistic. We are optimistic. We expect 80% of our business -- our merchandise business and our intermodal business to do quite well this year. Especially, in -- as we said, in the second half of the year, if for no other reason that we just get easier comps. And yes, if the business comes back, which clearly, we hope it does -- well, it's going to. Not a question -- as I said, this is not the new norm. Business is going to come back. It is -- all of our businesses are cyclical. It's just a question of when does it come back. We're -- all we're saying is, as of right now, we're being a little more pessimistic about -- I don't expect all of a sudden, volumes would jump up 5% in the -- on May 12. We're going to wait and see. We're going to be cautious. We're going to be vigilant in making -- and we have to do that in order to manage the company. And if things come back, we'll be in a position to handle the volume and grow the business.

嗯，我們確實——我們是樂觀的。我們也希望自己是務實的。我們是樂觀的。我們預期我們 80% 的業務——我們的商品業務與我們的聯運業務——今年表現會相當不錯。尤其是——如我們所說，在下半年，即便只是因為比較基期會變得更容易。而且是的，如果業務回來了——我們顯然希望如此——嗯，它會回來的。不是問題——如我所說，這不是新的常態。業務會回來。我們所有業務都是循環性的。只是問題在於什麼時候回來。我們——我們所說的只是，就目前而言，我們對——我不預期運量會突然在——5 月 12 日就跳升 5%。我們會再觀察看看。我們會保持謹慎。我們會保持警覺來做出——而我們必須這麼做，才能管理公司。如果情況回升，我們會處在能夠承接運量並擴大業務的位置。

Jamie?

Jamie？

Look, as Jim said, this isn't a slash and burn exercise that we've been going through, it's controlling the costs. And on the operating side, we work very, very close with Mark and his team. As the business starts to come back, we're going to be prepared for it. We're going to be ready for it. We've got the assets. We make sure we have the people, and we don't leave a load behind. So this has purely been a controlling -- and look at -- we need to continue to control the cost because the business isn't coming back as quick as we may have thought it does, then we'll do that. But we will be prepared to grab every carload that starts to come towards us.

你看，正如 Jim 所說，我們正在做的不是那種大砍大燒的作法，而是控制成本。在營運端，我們和 Mark 及其團隊合作得非常、非常緊密。當業務開始回升時，我們會為此做好準備。我們會準備就緒。我們有資產。我們會確保有人力，而且不會讓任何一批貨落下。所以這純粹是在控制——而且你看——我們需要持續控制成本，因為業務回升的速度沒有我們原先想的那麼快，那我們就會這麼做。但我們會準備好把每一車皮、每一筆開始朝我們而來的貨量都抓住。

And we have no further questions.

我們沒有其他問題了。

All right. Great. If there's no further questions, thank you so much for joining us today, and looking forward to seeing you on the road at the next conference or on the next call. Thank you.

好的。很好。如果沒有其他問題，非常感謝各位今天加入我們，也期待在下一場會議的路上或下一次電話會議再見到各位。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's call -- teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may disconnect your lines.

今天的電話——電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。您可以掛斷線路。