CSX Corporation (CSX) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CSX Corporation Q1 2020 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生，下午好，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2020 年第一季（Q1 2020）財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。（接線員指示）

For opening remarks and introduction, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Bill Slater, Head of Investor Relations for CSX Corporation.

接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話交給 CSX Corporation 投資人關係主管 Bill Slater 先生。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me on today's call are Jim Foote, President and Chief Executive Officer; Mark Wallace, Executive Vice President of Sales and Marketing; Kevin Boone, Chief Financial Officer; and Jamie Boychuk, Executive Vice President of Operations.

謝謝，各位下午好。今天與我一同出席電話會議的有：總裁暨執行長 Jim Foote；銷售與行銷執行副總裁 Mark Wallace；財務長 Kevin Boone；以及營運執行副總裁 Jamie Boychuk。

On Slide 2 is our forward looking disclosure, followed by our non-GAAP disclosure on Slide 3.

投影片第 2 頁為我們的前瞻性聲明揭露，接著投影片第 3 頁為我們的非 GAAP 揭露。

With that, it is my pleasure to introduce President and Chief Executive Officer, Jim Foote.

接下來，我很榮幸介紹總裁暨執行長 Jim Foote。

Thanks, Bill, and thank you all for joining our call today. Before I get into the details of the first quarter, I want to say that our thoughts are with those who have been affected by the virus. No one ever imagined that we would be dealing with anything like this, but to see people everywhere respond to the challenge is uplifting.

謝謝你，Bill，也謝謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。在我進入第一季細節之前，我想先表示，我們的心與所有受病毒影響的人同在。沒有人曾想像我們會面對這樣的情況，但看到各地的人們回應這項挑戰，令人振奮。

With the beginning of the transformation of CSX just a few years ago, we adopted a few tenets by which to operate. First, be safe. The employees should never be injured while on the job. Second, help our customers be successful by providing them with good service. And third, operate as efficiently as possible. We knew that if we did those 3 things, we would be a great company and shareholders would be rewarded. We clearly did not change how we operate with the pandemic in mind. But because of the intense adoption of those core beliefs, CSX is now a much stronger and resilient company and in the best possible position to respond to this unprecedented and uncertain environment. I am incredibly proud of the men and women of CSX who are working on the front lines. They have once again shown what outstanding railroaders they are. CSX is running at peak condition keeping the nation's supply chain moving and delivering critical products to millions of Americans.

自從幾年前 CSX 開始轉型之初，我們採納了幾項作為營運準則的核心信念。第一，安全第一。員工在工作時絕不應受傷。第二，透過提供良好服務，協助客戶取得成功。第三，盡可能高效率地營運。我們知道，只要做到這三件事，我們就會成為一家卓越的公司，股東也會獲得回報。我們顯然不是以疫情為前提來改變營運方式。但由於對這些核心信念的高度落實，CSX 如今成為更強大、更具韌性的公司，並處於回應這個前所未有且充滿不確定環境的最佳位置。我為在第一線工作的 CSX 男男女女感到無比自豪。他們再次展現了自己是多麼傑出的鐵路人。CSX 正以最佳狀態運行，維持全國供應鏈運轉，並向數以百萬計的美國人運送關鍵產品。

Thousands of customers trust CSX with their freight, and every one of them right now is experiencing some degree of disruption. And we are deeply committed to maintaining the best-in-class service they have come to expect from us. I'm proud to say that service is currently the best it has ever been.

成千上萬的客戶將其貨運託付給 CSX，而此刻每一位客戶都在某種程度上經歷中斷。我們也堅定承諾，維持他們一向期待我們提供的同級最佳服務。我很自豪地說，目前的服務水準是我們有史以來最佳。

Now let's go to Slide 5 of the presentation for highlights of the first quarter financial performance. First quarter EPS declined 2% to $1, while the operating ratio improved by 80 basis points to 58.7, a new Class I railroad first quarter record. Given the combination of the known headwinds this year from export coal and other noncore items as well as the initial impact from the pandemic in the final weeks of the quarter, these results are impressive.

現在請看簡報投影片第 5 頁，第一季財務表現重點如下：第一季每股盈餘（EPS）下滑 2% 至 1 美元，而營業比率（Operating Ratio）改善 80 個基點至 58.7，創下美國一級鐵路（Class I railroad）第一季新紀錄。考量今年已知的逆風因素（包括出口煤以及其他非核心項目），再加上本季最後幾週疫情的初步影響，這些成果令人印象深刻。

Moving to Slide 6. First quarter revenue declined 5%, as merchandise growth was more than offset by declines in coal and other revenue. Merchandise revenue increased 3% on 2% higher volumes as broad-based volume growth across markets was partially offset by declines in automotive and fertilizers. Excluding automotive, merchandise revenue and volume were up 5% and 4%, respectively. Intermodal revenue declined 1% on flat volumes as domestic revenue and volume growth was more than offset by declines in the international business. Excluding the COVID-19 impact from the final weeks of the quarter, international volume would have been positive as well.

接著看投影片第 6 頁。第一季營收下滑 5%，因商品（merchandise）成長被煤炭及其他營收下滑所抵銷。商品營收在運量成長 2% 的帶動下增加 3%；各市場普遍的運量成長，部分被汽車與化肥下滑所抵銷。若排除汽車，商品營收與運量分別成長 5% 與 4%。聯運（intermodal）營收在運量持平下下滑 1%，因國內營收與運量成長被國際業務下滑所抵銷。若排除本季最後幾週 COVID-19 的影響，國際運量也會呈現正成長。

Coal revenues decreased 25% on 15% lower volumes. Both the domestic and export markets continue to be negatively impacted by natural gas prices, weak export demand and benchmark prices. Other revenue declined 40%, representing a 2% headwind to total revenue due to lapping a favorable customer contract settlement last year and lower demurrage and intermodal storage revenues.

煤炭營收因運量下滑 15% 而下降 25%。國內與出口市場皆持續受到天然氣價格、疲弱的出口需求以及基準價格的負面影響。其他營收下滑 40%，對總營收造成 2% 的逆風，原因是去年有利的客戶合約和解基期效應，以及滯期費（demurrage）與聯運倉儲收入降低。

Turning to Slide 7 and our safety performance, where we again showed improvement. This quarter was one of the safest in CSX's history. The personal injury rate declined 22%, and the train accident rate declined 34%, with both figures approaching all-time company records.

接著看投影片第 7 頁的安全表現，我們再次展現改善。本季是 CSX 歷史上最安全的季度之一。人身傷害率下降 22%，列車事故率下降 34%，兩項指標皆接近公司歷史紀錄。

Let's now turn to Slide 8 and review our operating performance. CSX continued to operate at an extremely high level during what is typically the most seasonally difficult quarter. Setting first quarter records for velocity, dwell and car miles per day. Additionally, CSX continues to lead U.S. Class I railroads in fuel efficiency. Operating at 1 gallon of fuel per 1,000 gross ton miles. Improving fuel efficiency is a top priority for the team, and we are proud of our success. Fuel efficiency initiatives over the last several years have reduced annual diesel consumption by approximately 60 million gallons. The emissions avoided from this reduction are the equivalent of planting almost 1 million acres of forest each year. And we are challenging ourselves to be even better. CSX recently became the first U.S. Class I railroad to have its long-term emission intensity reduction goal approved by the science-based target initiative. Reducing emissions is important to us, our customers and the communities we serve.

現在請看投影片第 8 頁，回顧我們的營運表現。CSX 在通常季節性最具挑戰的季度，仍持續以極高水準運作，並在速度（velocity）、停留時間（dwell）以及每日車輛英里數（car miles per day）創下第一季紀錄。此外，CSX 仍在燃油效率方面領先美國一級鐵路同業，達到每 1,000 總噸英里僅耗用 1 加侖燃油。提升燃油效率是團隊的首要任務，我們也為成果感到自豪。過去幾年的燃油效率措施，已使年度柴油消耗量減少約 6,000 萬加侖。因這項減量而避免的排放，相當於每年種植近 100 萬英畝的森林。我們也持續要求自己做得更好。CSX 近期成為第一家其長期排放強度減量目標獲得科學基礎目標倡議（science-based target initiative）核准的美國一級鐵路公司。減少排放對我們、我們的客戶以及我們服務的社區都很重要。

Critically, as shown on Slide 9, our operating performance continues to drive best-in-class service and reliability for our customers. The plant performance is the best it has ever been with 84% of merchandise carloads and 98% of intermodal containers currently meeting their hourly trip plans in April so far. This performance includes the implementation of substantial service design changes in recent weeks to adjust our network in response to the current lower volumes.

關鍵的是，如投影片第 9 頁所示，我們的營運表現持續為客戶帶來同級最佳的服務與可靠性。場站（plant）表現是有史以來最佳，截至目前 4 月，商品車皮有 84%、聯運貨櫃有 98% 依其每小時行程計畫（hourly trip plans）達成。此表現也包含近幾週為因應目前較低運量、調整網路而實施的大幅服務設計變更。

Let me turn it over now to Kevin for more detail on the quarter.

接下來我把時間交給 Kevin，請他就本季提供更多細節。

Thank you, Jim, and good afternoon, everyone. As you will see in my review of the first quarter financial results, CSX was once again able to drive significant efficiency gains, posting yet another quality operating ratio record by the top line headwinds Jim described. This quarter marks 3 years since the transformation of CSX. And while there remains considerable uncertainty around the severity and duration of the economic impact related to the pandemic, CSX has never been in a stronger position to take its unique challenge.

謝謝你，Jim，各位下午好。正如各位將在我對第一季財務結果的回顧中看到的，儘管面臨 Jim 所描述的營收端逆風，CSX 再次推動顯著的效率提升，並再度創下高品質的營業比率紀錄。本季也標誌著 CSX 轉型滿 3 年。雖然疫情相關的經濟衝擊之嚴重程度與持續時間仍存在相當不確定性，但 CSX 從未像現在這樣處於更強勢的位置，以因應這項獨特挑戰。

Our liquidity position us extremely strong, with nearly $2.5 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of March. This represents multiples of what we would consider normal, targeted cash levels. You can also imagine, we have run quite a few scenarios over the past several weeks. Every model we run has us with substantial liquidity, emerging in a stronger position from this downturn and leveraging the subsequent recovery. All of these scenarios assume we react and adapt our business to changing conditions, and we have already begun to quickly adjust to the current environment.

我們的流動性部位極為強勁，截至 3 月底持有近 25 億美元的現金與短期投資。這相當於我們認為正常、目標現金水位的數倍。各位也可以想像，過去幾週我們已進行了相當多情境推演。我們所跑的每一個模型都顯示我們具備充足流動性，能在這次衰退後以更強的姿態走出，並在隨後復甦中加以運用。所有情境都假設我們會因應變化調整與適應業務，而我們也已開始迅速調整以符合當前環境。

From a financial perspective, we have taken many proactive steps to position the company to endure the economic downturn. First, we have ensured our cash position is liquid and available. Shifting the majority of our cash investment to safer government funds for the time being. While I would like to be earning more on our cash, we have taken a very conservative position until we are comfortable, conditions have normalized.

從財務角度來看，我們已採取多項主動措施，使公司能夠承受經濟下行。首先，我們確保現金部位具備流動性且可隨時動用，並在目前將大部分現金投資轉向較安全的政府基金。雖然我希望我們的現金能賺取更高收益，但在我們感到安心、且情況恢復正常之前，我們採取了非常保守的立場。

We also raised an incremental $500 million of debt, taking advantage of what are historically low interest rates. When I look out over the next 36 months, we have less than $1 billion in debt maturities, which could easily be funded through our annual free cash flow. We continue to closely monitor our receivable balance and investing any significant change to our aging profile. Our transportation services remain critical to our customers and their ability to generate cash flow.

我們也額外舉借了 5 億美元的債務，利用歷史低利率的機會。展望未來 36 個月，我們到期的債務不到 10 億美元，完全可以透過我們每年的自由現金流輕鬆支應。我們也持續密切監控應收帳款餘額，並調查其帳齡結構的任何重大變化。我們的運輸服務對客戶及其創造現金流的能力仍至關重要。

Finally, while the current backdrop is challenging, we are realizing opportunities and efficiencies that we will be able to leverage when we return to growth. These environments provide an opportunity to evaluate every cost and challenge the way we do things. And I expect these savings to be durable when growth returns.

最後，儘管目前的背景充滿挑戰，我們正在實現一些機會與效率，當我們重回成長時將能加以運用。這樣的環境提供了檢視每一項成本並挑戰我們做事方式的機會。我也預期，當成長回來時，這些節省將具有持續性。

Now turning my attention to Slide 11. I'll walk you through the highlights of the summary income statement. As Jim mentioned, total revenue was down 5% in the first quarter. A significant decline in coal, lower other revenue and unfavorable mix more than offset the benefit of merchandise gains.

現在把注意力轉到第 11 張投影片。我將帶各位看一看損益表摘要的重點。如 Jim 所提，第一季總營收年減 5%。煤炭的大幅下滑、其他營收降低以及不利的產品組合，已超過商品運輸收益帶來的好處。

Moving to expenses. Total operating expenses were 7% lower in the first quarter, driven almost entirely by the strong gains in operating efficiency we once again delivered. Labor and fringe expense was 10% lower versus the first quarter of 2019 as the average employee count was down 1,600 or 7%. Notably, even with volumes roughly flat year-over-year in the first quarter, we continue to find opportunities to tighten the train plan. First quarter crew starts were down 11% versus the prior year. This is a year-over-year average for the quarter and reflects efficiency gains we made over the last 12 months.

接著看費用。第一季總營運費用年減 7%，幾乎完全由我們再次交出的強勁營運效率提升所帶動。由於平均員工人數減少 1,600 人（或 7%），人事與附加福利費用較 2019 年第一季下降 10%。值得注意的是，即使第一季運量與去年同期大致持平，我們仍持續找到機會收緊列車計畫。第一季乘務開工次數較去年同期下降 11%。這是該季度的年對年平均，反映了我們在過去 12 個月所取得的效率提升。

Starting in the second half of March and through April to date, we have reacted to the declining volume environment and have continued to aggressively reduce train starts. I'm sure Jim will touch on this in the Q&A.

自 3 月下旬下半月開始，並延續至目前 4 月，我們已因應運量下滑的環境，持續積極降低列車開行次數。我相信 Jim 會在問答環節提到這點。

I have also talked a lot about our focus on overtime the last few quarters. And once again, we saw a significant 33% reduction year-over-year. With current volume headwinds, we expect to continue to drive significant improvement in overtime spend. In addition to these gains and employee efficiency, we also had $14 million of lower incentive comp expense in the quarter. Finally, $10 million of other labor cost increases were primarily driven by the cycling of the railroad retirement tax refunds in the prior year. MS&O expense improved 4% versus the prior year. Continued efficiency improvements across the operating support departments, including significant reductions in engineering, contracted spend, terminal expense and crew travel, drove a $32 million reduction year-over-year in MS&O. While MS&O is traditionally less volume variable than labor costs, a month ago, we began to work to eliminate discretionary spending across the company. Most of which will show up on this line item. Reductions in active locomotives and freight cars will also drive MS&O savings. And we expect outsourced terminal costs to adjust down as well.

過去幾個季度我也多次談到我們對加班的關注。而這次我們再次看到年對年顯著下降 33%。在目前運量逆風下，我們預期將持續大幅改善加班支出。除了這些成果與員工效率提升之外，本季獎勵性薪酬費用也減少了 1,400 萬美元。最後，其他人力成本增加 1,000 萬美元，主要是因為去年鐵路退休稅退稅的基期效應。MS&O 費用較去年同期改善 4%。營運支援部門持續的效率提升（包括工程、外包支出、場站費用與乘務差旅的大幅削減）推動 MS&O 年對年減少 3,200 萬美元。雖然 MS&O 傳統上相較人力成本對運量的變動敏感度較低，但一個月前我們已開始在全公司範圍內著手取消非必要的可自由裁量支出，其中大多會反映在此項目。減少在役機車與貨車也將帶來 MS&O 節省。我們也預期外包場站成本將同步下調。

While MS&O will not be down one-for-one with volume, we are clearly focused on costs within this bucket that are traditionally less volume variable.

雖然 MS&O 不會隨運量一比一下降，但我們顯然聚焦於此費用籃子中那些傳統上對運量變動較不敏感的成本。

Real estate and line sale gains of $18 million were $9 million lower in the quarter. While there continues to be a pipeline of these opportunities, sales activity is likely to be lower over the balance of the year, given current economic conditions. That said, we have already closed one transaction in April and expect gains in the second quarter to be relatively flat with the first quarter.

不動產與路線出售收益為 1,800 萬美元，本季較去年同期少 900 萬美元。雖然這類機會仍有一定的案源，但在目前經濟情勢下，預期今年剩餘期間的出售活動可能較低。即便如此，我們已在 4 月完成一筆交易，並預期第二季的收益將與第一季大致持平。

Fuel expense was $41 million favorable, an 18% improvement year-over-year, driven by a 12% decrease in the per gallon price as well as significant efficiency improvements and lower volume. Our continued focus on utilization of distributed power and energy management software, combined with train handling rules compliance for the first quarter of record fuel efficiency.

燃料費用有利 4,100 萬美元，年對年改善 18%，主要由每加侖價格下降 12% 以及顯著的效率提升與較低運量所帶動。我們持續聚焦於分散式動力的使用與能源管理軟體的運用，再加上列車操控規範的遵循，使第一季創下燃油效率的紀錄。

Looking at other expenses. Depreciation be increased $14 million or 4% in the quarter. This reflects a $10 million impact from the fourth quarter 2019 depreciation study, which will continue to impact year-over-year depreciation expense for the next 2 quarters. We still expect full year depreciation to be up $50 million to $60 million. Equipment rents expense decreased 8%. Improved network performance has enabled faster car cycle times as measured by merchandise and intermodal days per load, which improved 6% and 13%, respectively. This, combined with lower payable volumes with the majority of the savings and equipment rents. Going forward, we will see volume-related reductions in equipment rent expense. So these will be partially offset by lower car utilization. In addition, we expect lower equity earnings from our TTX affiliate, which also show up in equipment rents.

再看其他費用。本季折舊增加 1,400 萬美元（或 4%）。這反映了 2019 年第四季折舊研究帶來的 1,000 萬美元影響，未來兩個季度仍將持續影響年對年折舊費用。我們仍預期全年折舊將增加 5,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元。設備租賃費用下降 8%。網路營運表現改善，使車輛周轉時間加快；以每載重的商品運輸與聯運天數衡量，分別改善 6% 與 13%。再加上應付運量下降，帶來了設備租賃費用的大部分節省。展望未來，我們將看到與運量相關的設備租賃費用下降，但其中一部分將被較低的車輛利用率所抵銷。此外，我們預期來自 TTX 關聯企業的權益法收益將降低，而這也會反映在設備租賃項目中。

Turning below the line. Interest expense increased primarily due to higher debt balances, partially offset by a lower all-in coupon. Income tax expense increased $13 million as lower pretax earnings were more than offset by prior year benefits related to option exercises investing with other equity awards. Absent unique items, we continue to expect an effective tax rate of approximately 24.5% for future quarters.

接著看線下項目。利息費用增加，主要因債務餘額較高，部分被整體票息成本下降所抵銷。所得稅費用增加 1,300 萬美元，因稅前盈餘下降所帶來的影響，已被去年與選擇權行使及其他股權獎酬相關的稅務利益所超過。排除特殊項目後，我們仍預期未來各季度的有效稅率約為 24.5%。

Closing out the P&L. As Jim highlighted in his opening remarks, CSX operating income declined 3% year-over-year, while the first quarter operating ratio of 58.7%, represented an 80 basis points improvement.

最後總結損益表。如 Jim 在開場所強調，CSX 營業利益年對年下降 3%，而第一季營業比率為 58.7%，改善 80 個基點。

Turning to the cash side of the equation on Slide 12. In the first quarter of 2020, capital investment was up slightly year-over-year. We continue to invest in our core track, bridge and signal infrastructure. And we continue to prioritize investments that provide safe and reliable train operations. While we are evaluating our capitals in total, even during this downturn in volumes, our commitment to invest in the safety of our core infrastructure will not change. In the first quarter, free cash flow before dividends was $812 million, down slightly, reflecting higher capital expenditures and lower proceeds from property dispositions. Free cash flow has continued to be a key focus for this team. And we saw free cash flow conversion exceed a 100%.

接著看第 12 張投影片的現金面。2020 年第一季資本投資較去年同期小幅增加。我們持續投資於核心軌道、橋梁與號誌基礎設施，並持續優先投入能提供安全且可靠列車營運的投資。雖然我們正在整體評估資本支出，但即使在這波運量下滑期間，我們對核心基礎設施安全投資的承諾不會改變。第一季在股利發放前的自由現金流為 8.12 億美元，略為下降，反映資本支出較高以及資產處分收入較低。自由現金流一直是本團隊的重點，我們也看到自由現金流轉換率超過 100%。

The company continues to demonstrate a commitment to shareholder distributions, including dividend payments. Importantly, I mentioned previously, our cash and short-term investment balance entering second quarter is nearly $2.5 billion. This position gives us confidence that combined with efficiency and initiatives, we cannot only weather the storm in front of us but take advantage of opportunities that may present themselves to create long-term value for shareholders.

公司持續展現對股東回饋的承諾，包括股利發放。重要的是，如我先前提到，我們在進入第二季時的現金與短期投資餘額接近 25 億美元。這樣的部位讓我們有信心，結合效率提升與各項措施，我們不僅能度過眼前的風暴，也能把握可能出現的機會，為股東創造長期價值。

With that, let me turn it back to Jim for his closing remarks.

接下來，我把時間交回給 Jim，請他做結語。

Great. Thank you, Kevin.

很好。謝謝你，Kevin。

Concluding on Slide 14. Due to the uncertain economic environment, and this should be of no surprise to anyone, we are withdrawing our guidance for the year. The potential range of outcomes for both production and demand as well as the potential shape of the recovery are too wide to predict at this time. We are constantly assessing the economic situation and will respond like we always do, by taking appropriate steps to control costs. But with an ever vigilant eye toward maintaining current, but most importantly, long-term service for our customers. We have worked too hard to get this right to go backwards.

最後看第 14 張投影片。由於經濟環境充滿不確定性，這對任何人而言都不意外，我們將撤回今年的財測指引。無論是生產與需求的可能結果區間，或是復甦的可能形態，其範圍都過於寬廣，目前難以預測。我們會持續評估經濟情勢，並一如既往採取適當措施控管成本。但同時也會時刻警覺，維持目前、且更重要的是長期的客戶服務水準。我們為了把事情做對已經付出太多努力，不能倒退。

We are also evaluating our capital expenditure outlook for the year. Our first priority is and always will be the reliability and integrity of our railroad. We will not reduce or defer any spend that impacts safety. We will install about the same amount of rail and more ballast this year than last. And Kevin and his team are looking for materials buying opportunities. We are, however, identifying potential areas of efficiency within our capital plan and the opportunities to defer some nonessential spend. The plan will be refined as the year progresses, but currently, we expect capital expenditures at the low end of our initial $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion range.

我們也正在評估今年的資本支出展望。我們的首要任務一向是、也永遠會是鐵路系統的可靠性與完整性。我們不會削減或延後任何會影響安全的支出。今年我們將鋪設與去年大致相同數量的鋼軌，並使用更多道碴。Kevin 與他的團隊也在尋找材料採購的機會。不過，我們正在資本計畫中辨識潛在的效率提升領域，以及延後部分非必要支出的機會。該計畫將隨年度進展而精煉，但目前我們預期資本支出將落在原先 16 億至 17 億美元區間的低端。

Importantly, CSX entered into this period with a dramatically different cash flow profile than at any point in the company's history. Over the course of our transformation, we have more than doubled CSX's free cash flow conversion and ended the quarter with almost $2.5 billion of cash and short-term investments and an untapped revolver. We will take the necessary steps to ensure sufficient liquidity.

重要的是，CSX 進入這段期間時的現金流量樣貌，與公司歷史上任何時點都截然不同。在我們轉型的過程中，我們已將 CSX 的自由現金流量轉換率提高了一倍以上，並在本季末擁有近 25 億美元的現金與短期投資，以及一筆尚未動用的循環信貸額度。我們將採取必要措施，以確保充足的流動性。

These are unprecedented times. I've been through a lot in my career, from Black Monday to the Great Recession and a lot of other unsettling events, but nothing like this. But I can say with certainty, strong companies adapt. They make changes, and they get even stronger. I hope this current situation passes soon, and we settle into the new normal. But for sure, the best is yet to come for CSX.

這是前所未有的時刻。我職涯中經歷過許多事情，從「黑色星期一」到「大衰退」以及許多其他令人不安的事件，但沒有任何一次像這次一樣。不過我可以很確定地說，強大的公司會適應。他們會做出改變，並變得更強。我希望目前的情況能盡快過去，並讓我們安定下來進入新的常態。但可以肯定的是，CSX 最好的時刻還在後頭。

Bill?

Bill？

Thank you, Jim. In the interest of time, I would ask everyone to please limit themselves to one question. Also, we ask everyone to please bear with us as we work through the logistical challenges presented by joining today's call from different locations. With that, we will now take questions.

謝謝你，Jim。為了節省時間，我想請大家每人只提一個問題。另外，也請大家體諒我們，因為今天的電話會議是從不同地點加入，會帶來一些後勤上的挑戰。那麼，我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Amit Mehrotra from Deutsche Bank.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Amit Mehrotra。

Congrats on the cost performance in the quarter. It's pretty impressive. Kevin, I think it would just be really helpful to get some help on how we can think about decremental margins in the second quarter. We're obviously facing 20% plus volume declines. The 25%, 26% decrementals you guys achieved in the first quarter was great, but obviously facing maybe a more benign volume environment than what we're going to get in the second quarter. So just any way to think about that? And since I only get one question, if you can just also comment on how the pricing environment has evolved, if at all, in the context of the volume declines?

恭喜本季的成本表現，確實相當令人印象深刻。Kevin，我覺得如果能協助我們理解第二季的遞減毛利率（decremental margins）該怎麼看待，會非常有幫助。我們顯然正面臨 20% 以上的運量下滑。你們第一季做到的 25%、26% 遞減幅度很棒，但顯然第一季面對的運量環境可能比我們第二季將遇到的更溫和一些。所以，有沒有什麼思考方式？另外，既然我只能問一個問題，也請你順便評論一下，在運量下滑的背景下，定價環境是否有任何演變（如果有的話）？

Yes, Amit, I think that qualifies as two, but we might give you a pass, since you're the first one going today. Look, I knew the decremental margin question would come up on this call and we talked about it a lot. And I know you want to plug into your models a certain decremental margin given your assumption here. I can give you a framework, but I don't think we're going to lay out necessarily what the decremental margin could be because there's a lot of different scenarios that could occur. What we're really focused on in this environment is taking out structural costs. And really, on the other side of this really emerging. And quite frankly, a better position than maybe we would have had this not happen. So -- but just going through the P&L here, obviously, depreciation is a cost that's more -- something that in the near-term and medium-term is more difficult to go after. We've done a great job on becoming more capital-efficient. That will work its way through depreciation over time, but that's something in the near term, that's obviously part of the move. When we look at our labor cost, as I described in my script, we obviously, with the great work that Jamie and his team have done, eliminating train starts and other things, we're seeing headcount and reduced labor costs come out pretty significantly with the lower volume environment that we're seeing. MS&O, as your experience will tell you, includes a lot of different items. When I look across MS&O and how we look at it internally, traditionally, we've said about 30% is highly variable. And then you have the rest of it, 25%, we generally said it's less structurally, less variable. But those are the things that we have to look at in this environment to really go after. And so that's where we're going to challenge ourselves. And clearly, the rent expense from a car hire perspective shouldn't move the volume, but there are some offsetting relationships where we want to earn as much on our fleet in terms of rents. And then the TTX relationship obviously creates somewhat of a less volume-related upside that we -- than we will traditionally see. So there's a lot of pieces. We're not going to draw the line in the sand on what the decremental margins are. I can tell you what we have done is we're taking a review of everything. Our challenge here is to variabilize every cost we can, reevaluate it. And the working conditions today, working from home and all of those, I think are introducing opportunities for more efficiency for us. So we're driving those, we'll react as the volume plays out here over the next quarter or 2. And I think you'll see additional opportunities that we'll drive.

是的，Amit，我想那算是兩個問題，但你是今天第一位提問者，我們就先放你一馬。你看，我知道這通電話一定會有人問到遞減毛利率的問題，我們也談了很多。我也知道你希望在你的模型裡，基於你的假設，帶入某個遞減毛利率。我可以給你一個框架，但我不認為我們會明確列出遞減毛利率可能是多少，因為可能發生的情境很多。我們在這種環境下真正專注的是移除結構性成本，並且在這一切過後重新站出來。坦白說，屆時我們的位置可能會比如果這件事沒發生時更好。所以——但如果從損益表（P&L）來看，顯然折舊是一項成本，在短期與中期更難去動。我們在提升資本效率方面做得很好，這會隨時間反映在折舊上，但在短期內，這顯然是其中一部分。當我們看勞動成本時，正如我在講稿中描述的，透過 Jamie 和他的團隊所做的出色工作，取消列車開行（train starts）以及其他措施，我們在目前看到的較低運量環境下，人力編制與勞動成本的下降相當顯著。MS&O（材料、供應與其他）如你所知包含許多不同項目。就我們內部的看法而言，傳統上我們說大約 30% 是高度可變動的；其餘部分約 25%，我們一般認為結構性較強、變動性較低。但在這種環境下，這些就是我們必須真正去檢視並著手處理的部分，因此這也是我們要挑戰自己的地方。很明顯，從車輛租用（car hire）的角度來看，租金費用不應該隨運量變動，但也存在一些相互抵銷的關係——我們希望在車隊租金方面盡可能多地賺取收益。而與 TTX 的關係，顯然也會帶來某種較不與運量連動的上行空間，這與我們傳統上看到的不同。所以其中有很多環節。我們不會在遞減毛利率是多少這件事上畫一條明確界線。我可以告訴你的是，我們正在全面檢視所有事項。我們的挑戰是把每一項能變動化（variabilize）的成本都變動化，並重新評估。再者，今天的工作條件——居家辦公等等——我認為也為我們帶來更多效率的機會。因此我們會推動這些，並在接下來一到兩季運量走勢逐步明朗時做出反應。我想你會看到我們推動出更多額外的機會。

So Amit, it's Mark. Maybe I'll take the second part of that first question. I think that was cheap, but going to be a recurring theme throughout the afternoon here. Listen, the pricing story continues to be very strong. I think if you look at the RPU results, the RPU is a mix story. Not, and I'll repeat again, it's not a pricing story. Pricing continues to be very good. Same-store sales sequentially and year-over-year are very, very good and our negotiated contracts exceeded our same-store sales pricing. So the team is doing an exceptional job in these circumstances to extract good value for the transportation product that we are delivering to our customers, which, as Jim and both and Kevin said, continues to be outstanding. So I'm very, very pleased. The team has done a phenomenal job and has delivered great results on the pricing side.

Amit，我是 Mark。也許我來回答你第一個問題的第二部分。我覺得那有點取巧，但這可能會成為今天下午反覆出現的主題。聽著，定價的故事仍然非常強勁。我認為如果你看 RPU 的結果，RPU 是一個組合（mix）的故事。我再重申一次，這不是定價的故事。定價仍然非常好。同店銷售（same-store sales）無論是環比或同比都非常、非常好，而我們談判完成的合約價格也高於我們的同店銷售定價。因此，在這些情況下，團隊仍能為我們提供給客戶的運輸產品爭取到良好的價值，表現非常出色；正如 Jim、以及 Kevin 都說的，我們的服務仍然非常卓越。所以我非常、非常滿意。團隊做得非常好，並在定價面交出了很棒的成果。

Your next question comes from the line of Brandon Oglenski from Barclays.

下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Brandon Oglenski。

Congrats on the quarter. Although the question I'm going to focus on here is the rate of decline that we're seeing in the second quarter. And Mark, maybe if you can speak to that. I mean, I think we show your volume down about 20% so far in April. Do you have any indications from customers when they plan to reopen sites or go back to higher levels of shipping? Or have we not even felt potentially the bottom of it yet?

恭喜本季表現。不過我這裡要聚焦的問題是我們在第二季看到的下滑速度。Mark，也許你可以談談這點。我的意思是，我想我們看到你們 4 月截至目前的運量大約下滑 20%。你們有沒有從客戶那邊得到任何跡象，知道他們何時會重新開放據點或回到較高的出貨水準？或者我們甚至可能還沒感受到真正的底部？

Brandon, I would say, my crystal ball is probably as good as yours. In this uncertain environment, things are so fluid. What we're doing is we're continuing to stay very, very close to our customers. I know the team, while working remotely, is staying very close to customers, reaching out to them on a weekly basis, trying to get a feel for their business, the impacts to their business, how that affects the supply chain, what we can do to react. What I would say is these times are very uncertain, and customers are seeing the same sort of things that we are. And so we are -- we're doing what we can control, and that's continuing to provide our customers with the best possible service. And watching the volumes very closely. Jamie and I talk every day and sometimes way more than once, and our teams do as well. And we're doing an exceptional job of staying on top of things. But I can tell you when our customers reopen and then things come back to normal, so to speak, we're going to be there to provide exceptional service for them and be there for them when they get back. So there's a lot of uncertainty, as I said. Clearly, the automotive guys are down. We hear the public reports that those facilities, those plants will be opened sometime in early May, around May 4. I think GM said today, they may push some of those plants back a week or 2 but we're staying very, very close to them. We have weekly calls with all our customers and especially the automotive guys. And we're just watching it and seeing what the -- what happens.

Brandon，我會說，我的水晶球大概跟你的一樣準。在這種不確定的環境下，情勢非常多變。我們正在做的是持續非常、非常貼近我們的客戶。我知道團隊即使遠端工作，也仍然非常貼近客戶，每週主動聯繫，試著掌握他們的業務狀況、對其業務的影響、這如何影響供應鏈，以及我們能做些什麼來因應。我想說的是，這段時間非常不確定，客戶看到的情況也和我們一樣。因此我們——我們在做我們能控制的事，也就是持續為客戶提供最好的服務，並非常密切地觀察運量。Jamie 和我每天都會談，有時甚至不只一次，我們的團隊也是如此。我們在掌握情況方面做得非常出色。但我可以告訴你，當客戶重新開放、事情所謂回到正常時，我們會在那裡為他們提供卓越的服務，並在他們恢復時支持他們。如我所說，不確定性很高。很明顯，汽車相關客戶的量大幅下滑。我們也看到公開報導指出，那些設施、那些工廠將在 5 月初、約 5 月 4 日左右重新開工。我想 GM 今天說，他們可能會把其中一些工廠再往後延一到兩週，但我們仍然非常、非常貼近他們。我們每週都會與所有客戶通話，尤其是汽車客戶。我們就是持續觀察，看看——看看接下來會發生什麼。

Your next question comes from the line of Allison Landry from Crédit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸（Crédit Suisse）的 Allison Landry。

So in the past, you've said that you still had many cost levers to pull as part of ongoing PSR implementation. So does the current downturn in volumes provided opportunity to speed up some of those remaining initiatives? So if you can -- if you could speak to an acceleration of cost takeouts? And also any other changes in the network that you might be able to pull forward that would potentially put you guys in an even better position to benefit from a recovery sooner than you might have otherwise?

所以過去您曾表示，作為持續推動 PSR 落實的一部分，您仍然有許多成本槓桿可以運用。那麼目前運量下滑是否提供了機會，加速推進其中一些尚未完成的措施？也就是說，您是否可以談談成本削減的加速？另外，網路方面是否還有其他變更可以提前推動，從而讓你們在復甦到來時，比原本預期更早處於更有利的位置、以便更快受益？

Thanks, Allison. The -- I've talked many times about the difficulties associated with the decline on a gradual basis over the last 12 to 18 months associated with a stagnant industrial economy and that we can respond quicker when there are downturns. And the job that the team did in responding over the last 4 weeks, in essence, not counting the international intermodal that started a little bit earlier, but over the last short period of time that responding to this quick downturn was nothing short of amazing.

謝謝你，Allison。我——我多次談到，在過去 12 到 18 個月裡，工業經濟停滯所帶來的逐步下滑，讓我們在應對上有其困難；但當出現下行時，我們反而能更快做出反應。而團隊在過去 4 週的應對表現——基本上不把更早開始的國際聯運算在內——但在這麼短的時間內對這次快速下滑做出反應，簡直令人驚嘆。

Jamie, why don't you talk about the -- all of the steps that you guys took.

Jamie，你不如談談——你們採取的所有步驟。

Sure. Absolutely. Look, we -- obviously, over the past few weeks here, we've really started to adjust our network to what we're seeing as a current -- the current environment and the way that demand sits. So we've made a lot of changes out there, where we've reduced over the last couple of weeks a number of our assets. But really, we've reduced our total road starts by 23% year-over-year against the 25% decline in volume. We stored over 400 locomotives since the end of March, driving our active locomotive count under 2,000. And to put that in perspective, 3 years ago when we started scheduled railroading at CSX, we had over 4,000 locomotives. We also held our merchandise train length consistent yet we've been able to eliminate over 500 merchandise trains from our daily plan, which is more than a 20% -- sorry, 50 merchandise trains from our daily plan, which is more than 20% reduction. While we've been doing all that, we've been able to reduce our train delays by over 66%. So I think it's really important to note that these changes are not just volume related. That we started really right off the start, ready for growth, working with Mark and his team, while they were driving with customers. Now we're really starting to pivot and use the current environment to go after structural opportunities in our operation. We will continue to adjust our network as demand dictates going forward. But we are also making changes where assets will not need to come back in the future. This is really an exercise for us to continue to work close with our marketing team, adjust our volumes in network each and every day. But at the same time, we are ready when volume returns to go after that volume and not leave a carload behind.

當然，沒問題。你看，我們——顯然在過去幾週，我們已經開始根據我們所看到的當前——當前環境以及需求所處的位置，來調整我們的網路。因此我們在外部做了很多變更，在過去幾週縮減了相當一部分資產。但更重要的是，我們的總開行（road starts）同比下降了 23%，對比運量下降 25%。自 3 月底以來，我們封存了 400 多台機車，使在役機車數量降到 2,000 台以下。為了讓大家有個概念，3 年前我們在 CSX 開始推行定期化鐵路（scheduled railroading）時，機車數量超過 4,000 台。我們也維持了商品車（merchandise）列車編組長度的一致性，但我們已能從每日計畫中刪減超過 500 班商品列車，這相當於超過 20%——抱歉，是從每日計畫中刪減了 50 班商品列車，這相當於超過 20% 的減少。在做這些的同時，我們還把列車延誤降低了 66% 以上。所以我認為非常重要的一點是，這些變更不只是與運量相關。我們從一開始就真正做好了成長準備，並與 Mark 及其團隊合作，當他們在與客戶推進時，我們也同步配合。現在我們真的開始轉向，利用當前環境去挖掘營運中的結構性機會。我們將持續依需求變化來調整網路。但我們也在推動一些變更，使得某些資產未來不需要再回到系統中。對我們而言，這確實是一項持續與行銷團隊緊密合作的工作，每天逐一調整我們在網路中的運量。同時，當運量回升時，我們也已準備好去爭取那些運量，不讓任何一車皮（carload）被落下。

Your next question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀（UBS）的 Tom Wadewitz。

Remarkable job on the cost side, very impressive how quickly you've responded. I wanted to get your thoughts, Mark or Jim, just in terms of how does the -- I guess -- I mean when the markets moved so much, maybe it's irrelevant. But how do you interact with customers in terms of you got to cut costs? And is the kind of share gain versus truck story is something you can kind of put on hold and say, we'll revisit it in another year? Or is it something that you kind of -- you gauge the way you manage the way you cut costs. So that you still have that service and kind of dialogue from before? I mean it seems like it's kind of an incremental question in a market that's very macro-driven, but how do you think about that relative to the obvious success in cutting a lot of costs?

在成本端的表現非常出色，反應速度之快令人印象深刻。我想請教 Mark 或 Jim，你們怎麼看——我想——當市場波動這麼大時，也許這個問題不那麼重要。但你們在與客戶互動時，如何在「必須削減成本」這件事上取得平衡？以及「相對卡車的市占提升」這個故事，是不是可以先暫時擱置，說我們一年後再回來談？還是說你們會在削減成本的方式上做拿捏，以便仍能維持之前的服務水準與溝通對話？我的意思是，在一個高度由總體因素驅動的市場裡，這似乎是個邊際性的問題，但相對於你們在大幅削減成本上的明顯成功，你們如何看待這件事？

Tom, as I said in my opening remarks, we have worked like dogs to get the service levels of this railroad up to where they belong and to win back credibility from our customers. And so we are -- first of all, and Mark can follow-up on this. But Mark and Jamie, as Jamie said, are in constant communication with each other and making sure that our customers are aware of what service changes we need to make and what the impacts to our customers may be and it also -- in many circumstances, the reason -- again, the reason that we're reducing train starts is because their volumes are down. And all we need to do is have an honest dialogue with our customers about the fact that we don't think we can serve them 5 days a week, how about 3, and they go, "Sure. Let me do -- make the necessary adjustments where it is appropriate." But Mark and his team are, as he said, constantly communicating with the customers about that.

Tom，正如我在開場致詞中所說，我們一直拼命努力，把這條鐵路的服務水準提升到它應有的水準，並重新贏回客戶對我們的信任。因此我們——首先，Mark 也可以補充。但正如 Jamie 所說，Mark 和 Jamie 彼此保持持續溝通，確保我們的客戶了解我們需要做哪些服務調整，以及這些調整可能對客戶造成的影響；而且——在很多情況下，我們之所以減少列車開行，原因同樣是因為他們的運量下降。我們所需要做的，就是與客戶進行坦誠的對話：我們認為可能無法每週服務 5 天，改成 3 天如何？他們就會說：「可以。我會在適當的地方做必要的調整。」但 Mark 和他的團隊正如他所說，一直在就此與客戶保持持續溝通。

Mark, why don't you follow up.

Mark，你不如接著補充一下。

Yes. Sure. Jim is exactly right. And we're talking with our customers. Certainly, where they're seeing volume declines because their own businesses are -- and their businesses are softer, and we have an opportunity to maybe take a day out of the service or whatever. We're having those conversations. And we're staying close to Jamie and making those changes. Service is sacred around here, and our commitment to our customers is important. And we take that responsibility very, very importantly. And as Jim said, we've worked really, really hard over the last 3 years to put in the reliability and the consistency of service that customers expect from us. We're doing that. We continue to do that, and we're not going to -- just because volumes are declining, we're not going to walk away from that strategy. And so we're continuing to work with everybody. And listen, I think the weekly carloads are showing that. I mean we -- with our better service, as I've talked many times, we have repositioned our marketing teams to really get away from just being pricing people to really understanding and doing real marketing work and looking for opportunities for us to gain share from other modes of transportation. And they're going to continue that. I'm not sending them home for a year just because the volumes are down. They're going to continue to work. We're winning in the marketplace. We're uncovering opportunities with our better service products to win share from other modes of transportation. And you're -- I think you're seeing it in the carloads. So we're having tremendous success there and that work is going to continue.

好的，當然。Jim 說得完全正確。我們正在與客戶溝通。當然，在他們因自身業務——他們的業務走弱而看到運量下滑時，我們也許有機會把服務天數減少一天或做其他調整，我們就會進行這些對話。我們也與 Jamie 保持緊密協作並做出相應變更。服務在這裡是神聖不可侵犯的，我們對客戶的承諾非常重要。我們非常、非常重視這份責任。正如 Jim 所說，過去 3 年我們非常努力地建立起客戶對我們所期待的可靠性與服務一致性。我們正在做到這一點，也會持續做到這一點；我們不會——僅僅因為運量下滑，就放棄這個策略。因此我們會繼續與所有人合作。再者，我認為每週車皮量（weekly carloads）也反映了這一點。我的意思是——憑藉更好的服務，正如我多次談到的，我們已重新定位行銷團隊，真正從「只是做定價的人」轉變為真正理解市場、做真正的行銷工作，並尋找讓我們從其他運輸方式中取得市占的機會。他們會繼續這麼做。我不會因為運量下滑就讓他們回家休息一年。他們會繼續工作。我們正在市場上取勝。我們正透過更好的服務產品挖掘機會，從其他運輸方式中贏得市占。而你——我想你也在車皮量上看到了。因此我們在這方面取得了巨大的成功，而這項工作也將持續下去。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Ossenbeck from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Brian Ossenbeck。

You had a few comments on fuel efficiency. I wanted to circle back to that. I think going to the 2018 Investor Day, I thought it was about 0.95. It's probably the only target you didn't hit early from that outlook. So I just wanted to hear, can you still get to that number? It sounds like a lot of the efficiency gains you're making now aren't necessarily volume dependent. So just wanted to see what were the main factors to drive for that if that goal was still potentially on the table.

你們提到了一些關於燃油效率的評論，我想再回到這點。我記得在 2018 年投資人日（Investor Day）時，我以為目標大約是 0.95。這可能是你們在當時展望中唯一沒有提前達成的目標。所以我想聽聽，你們仍然能達到那個數字嗎？聽起來你們現在做出的許多效率提升不一定依賴運量。因此我想了解，如果那個目標仍可能在桌面上，主要的推動因素會是什麼？

Jamie, you want to take that?

Jamie，你要回答這個嗎？

Yes, absolutely. Look, fuel is something that we talk about consistently here at CSX. And everyone on our team, on the operating team, as -- knows clearly where our targets and our goals are with respect to that. We are using technology constantly to make sure that we hit those targets as we continue to break through new records each and every quarter as we move forward. We feel confident that we will continue to show the improvement that we have in the past, and we'll continue to move that forward. Definitely, as our -- as we fill out our trains and we make our trains bigger and longer, that helps with the efficiency, where 2 locomotives are pulling more freight than they were before as we consolidate trains and as we continue to move forward into volume growth at some point in time when the market conditions change. But yes, it's an important key factor. I've got an unbelievable operating team who is working on this. We have created our own small department of a few individuals who are solely concentrated on fuel efficiency, and those people will continue to do what they're doing and driving the metrics to where we're seeing them.

是的，當然。你看，燃油是我們在 CSX 這裡一直持續討論的議題。而我們團隊中的每一位、營運團隊中的每一位——都很清楚我們在這方面的目標與指標。我們持續運用科技，確保能達成這些目標，因為我們在往前推進的同時，每一季都在刷新新的紀錄。我們有信心會持續展現過去所達成的改善，並且會繼續把它往前推進。當然，隨著我們——隨著我們把列車裝得更滿、把列車做得更大更長，這會提升效率；在我們整併列車、並在某個時間點當市場條件改變而進入運量成長時，兩台機車就能牽引比以前更多的貨物。但沒錯，這是一個重要的關鍵因素。我有一支令人難以置信的營運團隊正在處理這件事。我們也成立了一個由少數幾位成員組成的小部門，專注於燃油效率；這些人會持續做他們正在做的事，並推動各項指標，讓我們看到目前所呈現的成果。

I guess, we'll take an A minus on one of our -- on one of the categories. All right. Thanks, Jamie.

我想，我們在其中一個——其中一個類別上拿個 A- 吧。好。謝謝你，Jamie。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Ken Hoexter。

And Jim, you've always provided good insight into kind of calling the volume outlook. Maybe just talk a bit about -- more about keeping the cost around, if you anticipate a quick bounce back, given the speed of the decline compared to -- so suffering with some higher costs in the near term. And I guess I'm more specifically referring to employees and how you think about furloughing or cutting additional employees with the ability to get them back up and running quickly.

Jim，你一向都能對運量展望的判斷提供很好的洞見。也許請你多談一點——關於在你預期會快速反彈的情況下，如何維持成本配置；考量到這次下滑的速度相較於——因此短期內可能要承受一些較高成本。我的問題更具體是指員工：你如何看待讓員工暫時停工（furlough）或進一步裁減人力，同時又能在需要時快速把人力恢復到可運作狀態？

Well, Ken, that has been the #1 area of concentration for me for the last month, is trying to deal with the -- not only the -- making sure that we have the employees ready, willing and able when -- as this business turns around. But to make sure because of the tragic circumstances, both with the disease and the economic fallout at the same time to make sure that we were very humanitarian in the way we've approached things, we have been working diligently with the labor unions from day 1 and have come up with some unique arrangements to address those concerns, recognizing the fact that the future is clearly unknown in terms of how long this is going to last. And so we've done a lot of interesting and unique things in conjunction with labor, especially in the early days, to keep the employees working. And then to be able to pivot to adjust in a manner when volumes really began to decline, but to make sure we have access to those employees when things turn back. So we have been thinking way outside the box to try and come up with ideas wherever we can. And right now, I feel we're as in -- as good a position as one could be in that circumstance. I wish I had a crystal ball in terms of the future volumes. But right now, we just don't have that.

Ken，這在過去一個月一直是我最優先關注的領域：試著處理——不只是——確保當——當業務回升時，我們有員工準備好、願意且能夠上線。同時也要確保，因為這些悲劇性的情況——疾病與經濟衝擊同時發生——我們在處理方式上非常有人道。從第一天起我們就一直與工會密切合作，並提出一些獨特的安排來回應這些疑慮，也認知到未來在這會持續多久方面顯然仍是未知。因此我們與勞方合作做了許多有趣且獨特的作法，特別是在早期，來讓員工能持續工作。接著當運量真的開始下滑時，我們也能以某種方式迅速轉向調整，同時確保當情況回升時我們仍能動用這些員工。所以我們一直在跳脫框架思考，盡可能提出各種想法。就目前而言，我覺得在這種情況下，我們已經處於所能達到的——相對最好的位置。我希望我有一顆水晶球能看見未來運量。但現在，我們就是沒有。

So I guess, just to clarify...

所以我想，確認一下……

Just on some of the points that Jim kind of put out there was we have -- with our union groups, we have set up some agreements that will allow our employees to go on, what we call, a retention board. It's their choice. I'm sorry, it's a reserve board. It's their choice to get on that board or not. Most of our employees, a large number of them, have decided to go on to that board instead of taking furlough on the T&E side. And the benefits for us, and of course, these are tough decisions that we're making as we continue to work on this downturn and control our costs. But the benefits is it's a less carrying cost for us, but it allows the employees to have medical benefits and other benefits along the way, but gives us, in most cases, a 48-hour recall for when the volume starts to come back, we don't have to wait the normal period, which is around a 15-day recall cycle. We're able to jump on volumes, as Mark and his team work on it and as the economic conditions change.

就 Jim 剛才提到的一些重點補充一下：我們——與工會團體已經建立了一些協議，允許員工加入我們所稱的留任名單。這是他們的選擇。抱歉，是備援名單（reserve board）。員工可以選擇要不要加入。就 T&E（運輸與機務）這一端而言，我們大多數員工、其中相當大一部分，選擇加入那個名單，而不是接受暫時停工（furlough）。對我們而言的好處——當然，這些都是艱難的決策，因為我們在這次下行期間持續努力控管成本——好處是我們的承擔成本較低；但同時也讓員工一路上仍能保有醫療福利與其他福利。更重要的是，在多數情況下，當運量開始回升時，我們可以在 48 小時內召回，不必等待一般約 15 天的召回週期。我們能更快跟上運量變化，配合 Mark 和他的團隊的作業，以及經濟條件的變化。

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Wetherbee from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗（Citi）的 Chris Wetherbee。

Maybe a question on intermodal. And I guess maybe 2 pieces to it. I guess, first, when you think about sort of the customer mix and what you guys are moving both on the international and the domestic side, is there any sense that you can give us to -- sort of what is maybe more consumer and sort of essential type businesses that could be operating, kind of what the floor might be like in that. And then secondarily, in times of disruption like this, do you tend to see modal shift occur? Obviously, truck spot rates have gone down quite a bit here, but that typically isn't the sort of measure that you guys tell us to look to in terms of how to think about share between truck and rail as more contractual. So just want to get a sense of maybe how that kind of plays out when you're in a very disrupted state like we're in right now.

我想問一個關於聯運（intermodal）的问题。我想大概有兩個部分。第一，當你們思考客戶組合，以及你們在國際與國內兩端所運送的貨種時，你們能否給我們一些概念——例如哪些可能更偏向消費品、以及哪些屬於必需品類型、仍可能持續運作的業務；在這之中，可能的「底部」會是什麼樣子？第二，在像這樣的干擾時期，你們通常會看到運具轉移（modal shift）發生嗎？顯然卡車即期運價（truck spot rates）已經下跌不少，但你們通常告訴我們不要用這個作為衡量卡車與鐵路市占的指標，因為更多是合約性的。因此想了解在我們現在這種高度受干擾的狀態下，這種情況通常會如何發展。

Mark?

Mark？

Sure. Thanks. So look, when we started off the quarter, intermodal was doing quite well. We had the traditional Chinese New Year on the international side, where volumes were reduced significantly. And then because of COVID-19, the outbreak in China, with the extended shutdowns, we sort of saw a pause on the international front for quite some time. Meanwhile, the domestic side of the business was doing actually pretty well. I think as people saw what was happening, there was a lot of inventory being needed out of the warehouses and positions to stores in anticipation of the increased demand. And so we saw that dynamic and then China opened up a little bit later in the quarter. We saw some international volumes come in. And meanwhile, the domestic side of the business was -- is slowing down considerably. So right now, as we look out, you can -- a lot of reports out there about the demand equation I go. And clearly, the -- with a lot of the shutdowns and the retail businesses are closed, there's not a lot of demand for selling. And so there are a lot of bright sales on the international front, and we expect that our domestic intermodal business will slow down considerably and is slowing down considerably now and for the foreseeable future. So those are sort of the dynamic shifts that have been going on. Service is tremendous. Our on-time performance is in the high 90s, 98%, 99%. We're seeing -- so as it pertains to truck, the trucking environment was tight and then it loosened up quite significantly and it is pretty -- it's pretty fluid now. So that's -- we have to continue doing what we're doing, providing great service to our customers. Clearly, competition from the trucks. There's a lot of trucks out there. And we're going to compete hard and try to win some business, but that's kind of the environment right now.

好的，謝謝。你看，當我們在本季一開始時，聯運表現相當不錯。國際端有傳統的農曆新年，運量顯著下降。接著因為 COVID-19 在中國爆發、加上延長停工，我們在國際端一度看到相當長一段時間的停滯。與此同時，國內端的業務其實表現得相當不錯。我想當人們看到正在發生的事情時，為了因應需求增加，倉庫需要大量補庫存並提前把貨位配置到門市，因此我們看到了那樣的動態。然後中國在本季稍晚一些時候開始復工，我們看到一些國際運量回來。與此同時，國內端的業務正在——正在明顯放緩。所以就目前我們往前看，你可以——外面有很多關於需求方程式的報告。而且很明顯地——隨著許多停工、零售業關閉，銷售端需求不大。因此國際端有很多亮點（bright spots），而我們預期國內聯運業務將會大幅放緩，而且現在已經在大幅放緩，且在可預見的未來都會如此。這些就是近期發生的動態轉變。服務表現非常好。我們的準點率在 90% 高段，達到 98%、99%。我們也看到——至於卡車方面，卡車市場環境原本很緊，之後顯著轉鬆，目前相當——相當流動。因此——我們必須持續做我們正在做的事，為客戶提供優質服務。顯然卡車競爭很激烈，市場上有很多卡車。我們會努力競爭、爭取一些業務，但這就是目前的環境。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

Kevin, last quarter, you talked about some specific headwinds. I think it was $300 million or so in coal revenue, $90 million lower gains, $50 million in the other railway revenue. I don't know if those are so impacted by what's going on. So maybe just a comment if you think any of those have materially changed. And then, Mark, for you, just quickly, have we seen the full impact of the benchmarks in coal RPU? Or is there one more leg down to come here?

Kevin，上季你談到一些特定的逆風。我記得大概是煤炭營收約 3 億美元、收益減少 9,000 萬美元、其他鐵路營收減少 5,000 萬美元。我不確定這些是否受到目前情勢的影響。所以也許請你評論一下，你是否認為其中任何一項已出現實質變化。然後 Mark，想請你快速回答：煤炭每車收入（RPU）基準價的影響是否已完全反映？還是接下來還會再下探一段？

Yes. I'll cover a few of those headwinds. I think we -- on the previous call, I mentioned real estate sales last year was about $160 million. We've guided for this full year of $60 million. Based on my comments, we'll probably see something a little bit south of that $60 million. The market is fluid right now. We obviously feel sequentially the number will be in line with the first quarter. Fourth quarter is probably a little bit more uncertain, depending on the market and conditions that exist today. We're certainly not going to fire sale anything. And we have plenty of cash, and we're going to maximize value, of course. And then on the depreciation, as I described, the $50 million to $60 million headwind, primarily related to the group life study there is, obviously noncash, but it's impacting the income statement on that side. From a coal perspective, I'll let Mark talk a little bit more about that. But I don't think, in aggregate, that headwind has changed in the market. It's probably somewhat similar, but I'll let Mark touch on that.

是的。我先談其中幾項逆風。我想我們——在上一通電話會議中，我提到去年不動產出售約為 1.6 億美元。我們對今年全年指引為 6,000 萬美元。依照我剛才的評論，我們可能會略低於 6,000 萬美元。目前市場變動很快。我們顯然認為按季來看，這個數字會與第一季相當。第四季可能更不確定，取決於市場以及當前存在的條件。我們當然不會做賤賣。我們現金充裕，並且會最大化價值，這是當然的。然後關於折舊，如我所述，5,000 萬到 6,000 萬美元的逆風，主要與團體壽險精算研究（group life study）相關，顯然是非現金項目，但會在那一端影響損益表。煤炭方面，我讓 Mark 再多談一些。但我認為整體而言，市場上的那股逆風並沒有改變太多，可能大致相近，不過我讓 Mark 補充。

Yes. No, thanks, Kevin. And Scott, yes, I would say I don't know. I would say the benchmarks are sort of all over the place. I think from what we told you in Q4 in January, I think from a benchmark perspective, we're still sort of thinking the same thing. Clearly, a little bit of weakness on API2 prices, a little bit less of a factor now because not a lot of coal is going to Europe. But most of our coal -- a lot of our coals, especially on the thermal side, going to India. India is closed down for a month. When that reopens, anybody's guess. So no coal is going to India right now. So those are dynamics that are happening. The net benchmark came up a little bit. Those are repriced quarterly. So -- but clearly, as Jim said in his opening, coal was -- had some headwinds. We didn't foresee any of these cool dynamics when we were talking to you in January. The markets have changed dramatically. So there's clearly some headwinds out there. And benchmarks are one, but demand is clearly the driving force here.

是的。不，謝謝你，Kevin。Scott，是的，我會說我也不確定。我會說基準價有點到處波動。我想就我們在第四季、1 月跟你們說的內容來看，從基準價角度，我們大致仍是同樣的看法。API2 價格確實有些走弱，但現在影響較小，因為沒有太多煤炭運往歐洲。不過我們的煤炭——我們很多煤炭，尤其是動力煤，運往印度。印度封鎖一個月；重新開放後會怎樣，誰也說不準。所以目前沒有煤炭運往印度。這些就是正在發生的動態。整體基準價略有上升，這些是按季重新定價的。所以——但很明顯，如 Jim 在開場所說，煤炭——確實有一些逆風。我們在 1 月跟你們談時，並未預見這些煤炭動態。市場已經劇烈改變。所以外部確實存在一些逆風。基準價是一個因素，但需求顯然才是這裡的主要驅動力。

Your next question comes from the line of David Ross from Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 David Ross。

Maybe this is a question for Jamie. Can you talk about mix, specifically, are there any commodity types that you haul that either help or hurt overall network productivity that might be harder to handle or slow the network for some reason? For example, if auto is not around, is that a good thing? Or is there any other commodity type that might limit network efficiency?

也許這題是問 Jamie 的。你能談談組合（mix）嗎？具體來說，你們承運的商品類型中，是否有任何品類會幫助或傷害整體路網生產力——可能因為較難處理或某些原因會拖慢路網？例如，如果汽車業務不在了，這反而是好事嗎？或是否有其他商品類型可能限制路網效率？

Well, a good thing.

嗯，是好事。

Yes. Look, it's -- on the operating end of things, of course, we've really only got 3 different types of commodity, our type of trains, I guess, we would say. So you've got our bulk service, which is easier, lower cost, in most circumstances and cases. And then we have our merchandise, which is usually handled multiple times throughout our network by the time it gets from online or from customer to customer. With respect to the auto side of the business, I would say that it is -- it's heavily -- on our network, it's very customer based with respect to a lot of work done at the loading facilities and unloading facilities. So there are a number of yards and locals. And we do have some dedicated auto trains that run in certain parts of the network. So when it comes to cutting off auto, even though it's a revenue that we don't want to lose, and it's a good revenue for us. There's -- you can pull out a lot of cost with respect to auto when the auto network shuts down the way it did.

是的。你看——就營運端而言，當然，我們其實只有 3 種不同的商品類型／列車類型，我想我們會這麼說。也就是散裝（bulk）服務，通常在多數情況下更容易、成本更低。然後是零擔／綜合貨運（merchandise），通常在從上線（online）或從客戶到客戶的過程中，會在我們的路網內被多次處理。至於汽車業務，我會說——在我們的路網上，它高度以客戶為中心，因為大量作業是在裝載與卸載設施完成的。因此會涉及許多編組場與地方線（locals）。而且我們在路網某些區域也有一些專用汽車列車在運行。所以當汽車業務被切掉時，儘管那是我們不想失去的營收，而且對我們而言是很好的營收，但——當汽車路網像這次一樣停擺時，你其實可以把與汽車相關的很多成本抽掉。

Your next question comes from the line of Jordan Alliger from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自 Goldman Sachs 的 Jordan Alliger。

Yes. Just a quick question. Obviously, most of the volume environment is pretty tough right now. But is some buffer come from agriculture, agricultural products? Is that something that might actually not look that bad in the grand scheme of things?

是的，就一個簡短問題。顯然目前大多數的運量環境都相當艱難。但農業、農產品是否能提供一些緩衝？從大局來看，這是否可能其實不會那麼差？

Well, certainly, each freight commodities got a little different cycle to it. We're looking at, as an example, a reasonably good movement of fertilizer now because that's the time of the year to do that. And I think everybody is still planting a crop this year. And then in all the various buckets, a lot of them -- again, as you said, agricultural has its own cycle based upon its commodity, it's not tied to auto production as an example.

嗯，當然，每一種貨運商品都有些不同的循環。我們看到——例如——目前肥料運輸相當不錯，因為每年這個時節就是施肥的時候。我想大家今年仍然會種植作物。然後在各個不同的類別中，很多——如你所說，農業有其自身的循環，取決於其商品特性，並不像汽車生產那樣被綁在一起。

So am I -- is there -- there is, as you said, a different cycle than the rest of the industrial. So maybe there could be some hope on that volume front?

所以我的意思是——如你所說，它的循環與其他工業品不同。那麼在運量方面，也許會有一些希望？

Yes. Yes. There's certainly -- yes, certainly, each element has its own drivers, so to speak. And auto, as an example, has -- is one thing that impacts a lot of different groups within the industrial and merchandise segments. And -- but yes, there are certain elements. I mean there's going to still be -- some coal is going to move. Like I said, fertilizer is going to move. Grain is going to get harvested. We've always relied on grains in one shape or another to keep the railroad going, whether it's corn, wheat or beer.

是的。是的。當然——是的，確實每個要素都有其自身的驅動因素，可以這麼說。以汽車為例，它——是影響工業與零擔（merchandise）板塊中許多不同群組的一個因素。然後——但沒錯，確實有一些要素。我的意思是，仍然會有——一些煤炭會運輸。如我所說，肥料會運。穀物會收成。我們一直以某種形式依賴穀物來讓鐵路持續運轉，不管是玉米、小麥，或是啤酒。

Your next question comes from the line of Justin Long from Stephens.

您的下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Justin Long。

So one of the noticeable trends year-to-date has been the outperformance of your volumes versus your Eastern rail competitor. So I was wondering if you could comment on how much of that outperformance, in your opinion, is coming as a function of market share gains from that rail competitor, market share gains from truck and mix. And maybe as you answer that question you could also address the lower fuel price environment? And how you're thinking about the modal share impact from that going forward as well?

今年以來一個明顯趨勢是，你們的運量表現優於你們的東部鐵路競爭對手。所以我想請你們評論一下：依你們看，這種超額表現有多少是來自於從該鐵路競爭對手取得市占、從卡車取得市占，以及組合（mix）的影響？另外，在回答這題時，也請談談較低燃油價格的環境，以及你們如何看待未來由此帶來的運具分擔率（modal share）影響？

Mark?

Mark？

We are seeing share -- good share gains across the portfolio. Was our strategy, when we started this thing, was to put in place the best service product that we could. We're doing that. We continue to do that. Next, we are focused on -- the sales and marketing organization is really focused on 3 things. Number one, because of the superior service that we have, working with our existing customers to expand the amount of rail that they use. Number two, work with customers who used to have -- used to move freight with CSX but for some reason, over the last couple of years, that freight, for some various reasons, might have went away. We're working hard with those customers to bring that freight back home, I would say. And the third strategy is working with shippers who may have traditionally never used rail in the past, but have always looked at truck as easier to do business with and never really wanted to consider rail as an option. Because of the work that we're doing to make it easier to do business with, because of our cost profile, we're able to go into some of those markets now that our marketing team is identifying and looking at and able -- and being able to win share there. For instance, we've been very successful in one segment in the business of aggregates. Aggregates continues to be a very strong commodity first these days. There's a lot of road construction projects that are going on. Traditionally, a lot of that coming out of like from Georgia into middle of Florida. It's less than 300 miles, used to move by truck. Because we have the capacity, because we have the service, we're able to play in those markets and make a very good return by doing so. And the contribution on that is very good. So we're very -- so we're looking at all these different buckets of opportunities. The teams are being very aggressive. And I think, as you said in your question, you can see it in the results you see on a weekly basis.

我們確實看到整體產品組合（portfolio）都有不錯的市占提升。我們在啟動這件事時的策略，就是打造我們所能提供的最佳服務產品。我們正在做到，而且會持續做到。接下來，我們聚焦於——銷售與行銷組織主要聚焦三件事。第一，因為我們的服務更優，與既有客戶合作，擴大他們使用鐵路的比例。第二，與那些過去曾經——曾經用 CSX 運貨、但在過去幾年因為某些原因、那批貨在各種因素下流失的客戶合作。我們正努力把那批貨帶回來，我會說是「帶回家」。第三個策略，是與那些傳統上從未使用鐵路的託運人合作；他們一直覺得卡車更容易做生意，因此從未真正把鐵路當作選項。因為我們正在做的工作讓合作更容易、加上我們的成本結構，我們現在能進入一些由行銷團隊辨識與評估的市場，並且能在那裡贏得市占。舉例來說，我們在骨材（aggregates）這個業務板塊非常成功。骨材目前仍是非常強勢的商品。道路建設專案很多。傳統上，很多貨是從喬治亞運到佛羅里達中部，距離不到 300 英里，以前多由卡車運。因為我們有運能、因為我們有服務，我們能在這些市場中參與競爭，並因此取得非常好的報酬率。而且其貢獻度非常好。所以我們非常——因此我們正在看所有這些不同的機會類別。團隊行動非常積極。我想如你在問題中所說，你可以從每週的結果中看得出來。

Justin, on your comment about the dynamics between rail versus truck and the impact that lower fuel prices might have, we're -- that's one of the reasons why we're continuing to work so hard to make sure we reduce our fuel efficiency so that we can be more competitive with the highway. But there have been a number of recent independent surveys that are out there right now, where they ask customers, are you still -- are you planning -- what do you think about rail transportation? Is it reliable? Yes. It's fantastic? Yes. Are you likely to shift? Probably a little bit more than I was in the past. Is there still value to shipping rail versus truck? Well, maybe it's not 15%, when oil is negative 35%, but they still say, it's 10%. 10% cheaper with the same truck-like service is extremely compelling in the marketplace.

Justin，針對你提到鐵路相較於卡車之間的動態，以及較低燃油價格可能帶來的影響，我們——這也是我們持續努力確保提升燃油效率、讓我們在公路運輸上更具競爭力的原因之一。不過，最近有不少獨立調查正在進行，他們問客戶：你是否仍然——你是否打算——你怎麼看鐵路運輸？可靠嗎？是的。很棒嗎？是的。你會不會轉移？可能會比過去多一點。鐵路相較於卡車運輸是否仍有價值？嗯，也許在油價下跌35%時，不是15%，但他們仍然說是10%。在提供同樣如卡車般的服務下便宜10%，在市場上是非常有吸引力的。

Your next question comes from the line of David Vernon from Bernstein.

下一個問題來自Bernstein的David Vernon。

Kevin, a question for you on the balance sheet side. You've got about $2 billion worth of cash, obviously, ample liquidity, cash flow position in the business is good. Are you guys going to get back to more aggressive capital returns through buyback? Or are you thinking about changing in the way you're going to be returning some of that capital to investors, emphasizing more of the dividend? Any changing thoughts on that capital return profile going forward?

Kevin，我有一個關於資產負債表面的問題。你們大約有20億美元現金，顯然流動性充裕，公司的現金流狀況也不錯。你們會不會回到更積極的資本回饋、透過回購來進行？或者你們在把部分資本回饋給投資人方面，是否在考慮改變方式、更加強調股利？對於未來資本回饋輪廓，有沒有任何想法上的改變？

Yes. It's a -- Clearly, it's a dynamic market right now. We're very happy to have $2.5 billion of cash on the balance sheet and growing every day. We're still generating positive free cash flow. So that's -- clearly, when we look over the medium term and even long term, that's not a cash balance that we are going to meet on the balance sheet. And we still feel distributing it to our shareholders is something that we'll prioritize going forward. When the buybacks will continue, we'll hopeful to continue to discuss that over the next few months. But I would expect that -- at some point for that to be still a core component of our cash return to shareholders. I mentioned on the opening remarks that we're committed to our dividend. It's something that we reevaluate every year. We just recently, this year, increased that. And so we'll see what we do next year. But again, we're generating significant free cash flow even in these market conditions, and we can cover that dividend. And we continue to be committed to shareholder returns.

是的。這——很明顯，現在市場是動態變化的。我們很高興資產負債表上有25億美元現金，而且每天都在增加。我們仍在產生正的自由現金流。所以——很清楚地，當我們看中期甚至長期時，這不是我們打算一直放在資產負債表上的現金水位。我們仍然認為，把它分配給股東是我們未來會優先考量的事情。至於回購何時會持續，我們希望在接下來幾個月能繼續討論。但我預期——在某個時間點，回購仍會是我們向股東回饋現金的核心組成之一。我在開場致詞提到，我們致力於維持股利政策。這是我們每年都會重新評估的事情。我們今年才剛提高股利，所以我們會看看明年怎麼做。但再說一次，即使在這樣的市場環境下，我們仍在產生可觀的自由現金流，也足以支付股利。我們也會持續致力於股東報酬。

All right. Maybe if I can sneak one quick follow-up in. Jim, is there anything on the policy side you're looking at coming out of D.C. that would be beneficial or game-changing beyond obviously the economy just restarting? If anything in infrastructure spending or stuff like that, that we should be keeping an eye on that would have an outsized impact on CSX?

好。也許我可以再偷問一個很快的追問。Jim，在政策面上，你們有沒有在關注華府（D.C.）那邊可能出現、除了經濟重啟之外，會帶來好處或改變遊戲規則的事情？例如基礎建設支出之類的，有沒有什麼我們應該留意、可能對CSX產生超比例影響的？

Nothing that is game-changing. We're clearly interested in any kind of financial stimulus that would involve infrastructure because that would be a benefit to us. But no, so far, to date, the government in terms of providing flexibility to the rail industry, to be able to operate and maintain all of the safety requirements, especially with the ad hoc nature of the way some of this was implemented in the states, we have not really been implemented -- impacted, and the government has been very cooperative with us.

沒有什麼會改變遊戲規則的。我們當然對任何涉及基礎建設的財政刺激都很有興趣，因為那會對我們有利。但沒有，到目前為止，政府在提供鐵路產業彈性方面——讓我們能夠運作並維持所有安全要求，尤其是各州以臨時（ad hoc）的方式推行其中一些措施——我們其實沒有真的被——受到影響，而且政府也一直非常配合我們。

Your next question comes from the line of Walter Spracklin from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自RBC Capital Markets的Walter Spracklin。

I guess if we were to look out beyond COVID-19 and understanding that there's -- the world in the future is not going to be -- we're not going back to normal, and there's -- could be some opportunities that emerge in that new normal. Jim, when you look at how the world might develop post COVID-19, how it's structurally different, is there anything that a railroad or CSX, in particular, can do to capitalize on a new normal that is just different from the way things operated before? And if I could lead the witness for a second, the retail focus on e-commerce and the higher cost that are contained is a new strategy. Can you benefit in that e-commerce either because the retailers are also looking to offset that with a lower cost rail option? Or can you somehow play a role in the e-commerce chain in a way that you didn't before?

我想如果我們把視野放到COVID-19之後，並理解未來的世界不會——我們不會回到正常狀態，而且在那個新常態下可能會出現一些機會。Jim，當你看COVID-19後世界可能的發展、在結構上有何不同時，有沒有什麼鐵路公司、或特別是CSX，可以做來把握這種與過去運作方式不同的新常態？如果我可以稍微引導一下，零售端對電商的聚焦，以及其中包含的較高成本，是一個新策略。你們能否在電商上受益，因為零售商也在尋求用較低成本的鐵路選項來抵消？或者你們能否以某種方式在電商鏈條中扮演你們以前沒有扮演的角色？

Well, yes, there's 2 benefits. Well, let's not call it benefits, I shouldn't use that word. There are 2 opportunities for us that may arise as things evolve. First is, I think -- and this is just my own personal thoughts, I think that there will be more manufacturing that takes place in this country and any kind of business activity like that is good for the railroad. Secondly, we, now, can compete with the truck in the markets as they become more and more large quantity shippers that fit well into the rail dynamics because of our service. So with our service product that we had before and because of the disparate network, the way product moved, it was difficult for the railroads to compete in the e-commerce arena. I think that as we go forward will -- that will be a big opportunity for us.

嗯，是的，有兩個好處。嗯，我們別稱之為好處，我不該用那個詞。隨著情勢演變，可能會出現兩個機會。第一，我認為——這只是我個人的想法——我認為會有更多製造業在這個國家進行，而任何這類商業活動對鐵路都是好事。第二，隨著市場出現越來越多的大宗出貨人、其特性很適合鐵路運輸的動態，再加上我們的服務，我們現在可以與卡車競爭。過去由於我們的服務產品以及網路分散、貨物流動方式零散，鐵路在電商領域很難競爭。我認為未來——那將會是我們的一個重大機會。

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Seidl from Cowen.

下一個問題來自Cowen的Jason Seidl。

It seems like we're going to be coming out of this pandemic on a state-by-state basis. So it's going to be a little bit choppy and disparate. What kind of challenges is that going to present to CSX in the network?

看起來我們將會以逐州的方式走出這場疫情。所以會有點顛簸、而且不一致。這會在網路運作上對CSX帶來哪些挑戰？

Probably the same kind of challenges that we experienced it in the past, when I talked about a slow decline is harder to manage than a complete shut off. It was easier for us to adjust, as we described, when the auto industry just completely shut down in a week. My guess is the auto industry won't completely start up in a week. And so we will be challenged as the traditional logistics chain is not the same. And so we'll have to evolve. We'll have to work with our customers. And it will present more of a challenge for us. I don't see the fact that 1 state might come back online in certain areas 2 weeks before somebody else does. Texas starting up before Pennsylvania is not that big of a deal. It's the industry that will start up across the country based on the comfort level of the population as the states come back.

可能是我們過去經歷過的同類型挑戰。就像我提到的，緩慢下滑比完全切斷更難管理。當汽車產業在一週內完全停擺時，我們反而更容易如我們所描述的那樣做調整。我猜汽車產業不會在一週內就完全重啟。因此，當傳統物流鏈不再相同時，我們會面臨挑戰。我們必須演進，必須與客戶合作，這對我們會帶來更多挑戰。我不認為某個州在某些領域比另一個州早兩週恢復上線這件事本身有多大影響。德州比賓州先啟動不是什麼大問題。關鍵在於各產業會在全國範圍內啟動，取決於各州重啟時民眾的舒適度與信心。

Yes, that makes sense. And is this where sort of that flexibility with your headcount is going to really come into play and help you out?

是的，這說得通。那這是不是你們在人力編制上的那種彈性，會真正派上用場、幫助你們的地方？

Sure, yes, that's why we -- again, we're trying to anticipate -- you maybe heard a lot of people talking about planning, modeling, thinking, what do we do, new norms, da, da, da. Listen, we spent -- have spent and continue to spend a lot of times brainstorming about what could happen and how are we going to be in a position to respond.

當然，是的，這就是為什麼我們——再說一次，我們正試著預先判斷——你可能聽到很多人談規劃、建模、思考，我們要做什麼、新常態等等。聽著，我們花了——已經花了而且仍在花很多時間腦力激盪，思考可能會發生什麼，以及我們要如何讓自己處於能夠回應的狀態。

The next question comes from the line of Jon Chappell from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自Evercore ISI的Jon Chappell。

Jim, in your closing comments, you mentioned some of the prior periods of disruption that you've been through. And obviously, each one's different. But your former employer, you, Jamie and Mark, arguably had the best performance, both operationally and financially during probably the closest thing to what we're dealing with now in '08, '09. What are some of the similarities that you see with this environment back to '08, '09? Some lessons that you can bring from that period that helped you act proactively to get the system rightsized yet still without disrupting the service?

Jim，在你的結語中，你提到你們曾經歷過的一些過去的中斷時期。顯然每一次都不同。但你之前的雇主那邊，你、Jamie和Mark，可以說在可能最接近我們現在所面臨情況的2008、2009年期間，無論營運或財務表現都可能是最好的。你認為現在這個環境與2008、2009年有哪些相似之處？有哪些你能從那段期間帶來的教訓，能幫助你主動採取行動，讓系統規模調整到位，同時又不影響服務？

Well, I think '08, '09, again, we saw not this sudden shutdown, but we saw clearly a dramatic shutdown. And as a result, we looked back to those days to see -- yes, because I wasn't at CSX and pretty much -- none of us were here, to see what the traffic declines were, what the traffic pattern declines were. And it was helpful for us to try and to understand what it's like when 20% of your business goes away in 2 weeks. So lessons learned from all of those things. I hate to age myself. But yes, I've been through just about every modern-day financial calamity plus, like I said, others in my career, and -- but this one is clearly the most challenging.

嗯，我認為在 '08、'09 年，我們再次看到的不是這種突然的停擺，但我們確實清楚看到一次劇烈的停擺。因此，我們回頭看那些日子來了解——是的，因為我當時不在 CSX，而且基本上——我們這裡幾乎沒有人在——去看看當時運量下滑了多少、運量型態下滑了多少。這對我們很有幫助，讓我們試著理解當你有 20% 的業務在 2 週內消失時是什麼感覺。所以，從所有那些事情中汲取了教訓。我不想暴露自己的年紀。但沒錯，我在職涯中幾乎經歷過每一次現代金融災難，另外還有一些我剛才提到的——但這一次顯然是最具挑戰性的。

Are you implementing similar operational things that you did in the north of the border 12 years ago? Or is it a completely different response given the network? And the geographic exposure?

你們是否正在實施一些類似於 12 年前在邊境以北所做的營運措施？還是說，鑑於網路以及地理曝險，這次的應對完全不同？

No, it's -- again, there's no magic to the geography. There's magic to people. And the mindset of the people here in terms of making decisions, being quick, being nimble and getting things done, all while looking forward and not getting tunnel vision is the same. We have a phenomenal team that recognizes what needs to get done, and we work together and we execute, just the way we did it before. I mean that was -- it was just good people there, too.

不，這——再說一次，地理沒有什麼魔法。魔法在於人。這裡的人在做決策時的心態——快速、靈活、把事情做成，同時放眼前方而不陷入隧道視野——是一樣的。我們有一支非常出色的團隊，知道需要完成什麼，我們一起合作並執行，就像以前一樣。我的意思是——那時候也都是很棒的人。

Your next question comes from the line of Cherilyn Radbourne from TD Securities.

你的下一個問題來自 TD Securities 的 Cherilyn Radbourne。

So clearly, we're in uncharted territory here, and you've talked a lot about how you're staying close to your customers. But I wonder if you could just talk a bit about how you're collaborating with your interchange partners to prepare for various downturn and recovery scenarios.

很明顯，我們現在處於未知領域，你也談了很多關於如何緊密貼近客戶。但我想請你談談，你們如何與聯運（interchange）合作夥伴協作，以因應各種衰退與復甦情境的準備。

Well, it's a network business. What happens to one of us happens to all of us. It wasn't that just the auto plant shut down on CSX, they shut down across the country. We work together on a constant basis, managing the fleet as it moves across the network, open lines of communication, good coordination, making sure that we don't get a lot of equipment stuck in one terminal that could begin to slow down the network. And I think over the last couple of years, you've heard many of us say, most of the operating people now at the various railroads all think alike. We're all kind of working off the same page in terms of moving assets and running the network to the maximum level of efficiency, and that's been extremely helpful. The coordination and understanding has been extremely helpful.

嗯，這是一門網路型的生意。我們其中一家發生的事會影響到所有人。不只是 CSX 的汽車工廠停工，而是全國各地都停工。我們持續合作，管理車隊在整個網路中的流動，保持開放的溝通管道、良好的協調，確保不會有大量設備卡在某個場站，進而開始拖慢整個網路。我想在過去幾年，你已經聽到我們很多人說過，各家鐵路公司的多數營運人員現在想法都很一致。我們在資產調度與以最高效率運行網路方面，基本上都依循同一套原則，這非常有幫助。這種協調與相互理解非常有幫助。

Your last question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

你的最後一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 Ravi Shanker。

Jim or Kevin, if I can just follow-up on the last response. Obviously, completely understandable that you'll pull your guidance given the variety of -- or kind of the spread of uncertainty out there. But I'm sure you guys have planned for multiple scenarios that can play out over the next 2 or 3 quarters. So can you share kind of some of the -- like the bull, bear, base case scenario, kind of what volumes look like in 2Q, 3Q, 4Q, kind of as part of your planning samples?

Jim 或 Kevin，如果我可以追問一下剛才的回覆。很明顯，鑑於外部不確定性的各種——或者說不確定性的幅度——你們撤回財測是完全可以理解的。但我相信你們已經為接下來 2 到 3 個季度可能出現的多種情境做了規劃。所以你們能否分享一些——例如多頭、空頭、基準情境——在你們的規劃假設中，2Q、3Q、4Q 的運量大概會是什麼樣子？

Well, yes, we've certainly looked at all of the alphabets, the V, the U, the L and what I use, the W, as possible recovery scenarios. And obviously, the volumes in each one of those numbers is significantly different. So as a result, because there is such a huge difference between that, that's why at this point in time, maybe give me another 30 days, we'll have a better vision as to what the real start-up plan for the auto is, what's going on with steel, what's going on with X, Y and Z. Other than that, it's just a hypothetical exercise, and that's why we didn't want to try to guess at this point in time. And so I apologize, but we're just not going to give you some kind of numbers like that.

嗯，是的，我們當然看過所有字母的情境：V、U、L，以及我用的 W，作為可能的復甦情境。很明顯，每一種情境下的運量數字都差異很大。因此，正因為差異如此巨大，所以在這個時間點——也許再給我 30 天——我們會對汽車業真正的復工計畫有更清晰的視野，鋼鐵的情況如何，還有 X、Y、Z 的情況如何。除此之外，這就只是個假設性的演練，這也是為什麼我們此刻不想去猜。所以我很抱歉，但我們不會給你那種數字。

This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的會議。您現在可以掛線。