CSX Corporation (CSX) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CSX Corporation Q3 (sic) [Q4] 2020 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

各位女士、各位先生，下午好，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2020 年第三季（原文如此）[第四季] 財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

For opening remarks and introduction, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Bill Slater, Chief Investor Relations Officer for CSX Corporation.

接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話會議交給 CSX Corporation 投資人關係長 Bill Slater 先生。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me on today's call are Jim Foote, President and Chief Executive Officer; Kevin Boone, Chief Financial Officer; and Jamie Boychuk, Executive Vice President of Operations. On Slide 2 is our forward-looking disclosure, followed by our non-GAAP disclosure on Slide 3. With that, it is my pleasure to introduce President and Chief Executive Officer, Jim Foote.

謝謝，各位下午好。今天與我一同出席的有：總裁兼執行長 Jim Foote、財務長 Kevin Boone，以及營運執行副總裁 Jamie Boychuk。簡報第 2 頁為前瞻性聲明揭露，接著第 3 頁為非 GAAP 揭露。接下來，我很榮幸介紹總裁兼執行長 Jim Foote。

Thanks, Bill, and thank you to everyone listening in today. I want to begin by recognizing all of CSX's employees for continually responding to the challenges of 2020. Our results are a testament to our amazing people and the strength of our company. The core principles instilled over the last few years allowed us to act decisively with coordinated effort and alignment across the company.

謝謝你，Bill，也感謝今天收聽的各位。我想先肯定 CSX 全體員工在 2020 年持續因應各項挑戰的努力。我們的成果證明了我們優秀的團隊與公司的韌性。過去幾年所建立的核心原則，讓我們能果斷行動，並在全公司範圍內以協同一致的方式推進。

Over the course of the year, we re-examined every process from the ground up to identify and eliminate unnecessary steps across the railroad. And as a result, uncovered significant opportunities to build upon the progress made during our transformation.

在這一年當中，我們從零開始重新檢視每一項流程，以找出並消除鐵路營運中不必要的步驟。因此，我們也發掘了許多重大機會，可在轉型期間已取得的進展之上再接再厲。

These changes will provide benefits for years to come.

這些改變將在未來多年帶來效益。

Now let's turn to Slide 5 of the presentation and our fourth quarter financial results. Operating income grew 5% to $1.2 billion and the operating ratio improved 300 basis points to a new fourth quarter record of 57%. Our reported earnings per share were $0.99, but I want to point out that this figure includes a $0.05 per share charge related to the early retirement of debt.

現在請看簡報第 5 頁，我們的第四季財務結果。營業利益成長 5% 至 12 億美元，營業比率改善 300 個基點至 57%，創下第四季新紀錄。我們公告的每股盈餘為 0.99 美元，但我要指出，該數字包含每股 0.05 美元、與提前償還債務相關的費用。

For the full year, despite lower overall economic activity and historic demand volatility, CSX produced a full year operating ratio of 58.8%, exceeding our initial guidance of a 59% operating ratio.

就全年而言，儘管整體經濟活動較低且需求波動創歷史新高，CSX 全年營業比率仍達 58.8%，優於我們最初所提供的 59% 營業比率指引。

Moving to Slide 6. Fourth quarter revenue declined 2% on 4% higher volumes as intermodal revenue growth was more than offset by lower fuel surcharge revenue and declines in coal. Merchandise revenue and volume were flat as revenue growth in chemicals, ag and food, metals and equipment and fertilizers was offset by declines in other markets and lower fuel surcharges. Intermodal revenue grew 6% on 11% higher volumes to new quarterly record levels. This performance was driven by a combination of strong demand for transportation services due to inventory replenishments and volume growth from East Coast ports. Coal revenue was down 18% on 9% lower volumes as the coal business continues to be negatively impacted by lower domestic utility demand, industrial production and global mid-spark prices.

接著看第 6 頁。第四季營收在運量成長 4% 的情況下下滑 2%，原因是聯運營收成長被燃油附加費收入下降及煤炭業務下滑所抵銷。商品業務營收與運量持平；化學品、農業與食品、金屬與設備以及肥料的營收成長，被其他市場下滑與燃油附加費降低所抵銷。聯運營收在運量成長 11% 的帶動下成長 6%，創下新的單季紀錄水準。此表現主要來自兩項因素：因庫存回補而帶動的運輸服務強勁需求，以及來自美東港口的運量成長。煤炭營收下滑 18%，運量下降 9%；煤炭業務持續受到國內公用事業需求下降、工業生產走弱以及全球中段火電價差（mid-spark）價格下滑的負面影響。

Other revenue was down 6% as increased intermodal storage revenue was more than offset by a higher reserve for freight and transit and lower demurrage charges.

其他營收下滑 6%，因聯運倉儲收入增加，仍被較高的運費與運輸準備金以及較低的滯期費收入所抵銷。

Turning to Slide 7. We remain committed to being the safest railroad. In the fourth quarter, we achieved a new quarterly record low number of personal injuries, and full year record lows for both personal injuries and train accidents. While our efforts to build a culture of safety can be seen in the annual performance trends, we can always be better. We have launched new near miss and workplace hazard reporting programs that encourage employees to report potential safety concerns. We are also working to increase awareness of incidents and trends by conducting joint terminal tours with CSX management and local labor representatives. This proactive approach to reporting and communications is helping drive increased employee engagement as we identify and eliminate unsafe practices across the railroad.

接著看第 7 頁。我們仍致力於成為最安全的鐵路公司。第四季，我們達成單季人身傷害件數的新低紀錄，且全年人身傷害與列車事故件數皆創新低。雖然我們打造安全文化的努力可從年度表現趨勢中看出，但我們永遠可以做得更好。我們已推出新的「未遂事件」與職場危害通報計畫，鼓勵員工回報潛在的安全疑慮。我們也透過由 CSX 管理層與當地勞方代表共同進行的場站巡訪，提升對事件與趨勢的認知。這種主動的通報與溝通方式，正協助提升員工參與度，並讓我們能在整個鐵路系統中辨識並消除不安全作業。

Turning to Slide 8. We have previously discussed how the use of autonomous car and track inspection technologies is helping us meet our safety goals, and we will continue to invest in new programs to improve safety. However, we have a much broader vision on the increased use of technology in our business. Technology is foundational to our growth. We are actively investing in new technologies across the railroad, but are barely scratching the surface of what is possible. We are making our intermodal yard smarter and more autonomous. We are piloting programs that will further fuel efficiency, such as allowing us to optimize speed across the full trip of a train. And in the field, we're getting rid of paper-based processes and converting to digital ones that allow faster communications, better data capture and improve safety compliance.

接著看第 8 頁。我們先前已討論，自動化車輛與軌道檢測技術的運用如何協助我們達成安全目標，我們也將持續投資新計畫以提升安全。然而，我們對於在業務中更廣泛運用科技有更宏觀的願景。科技是我們成長的基石。我們正積極在整個鐵路系統投資新技術，但目前僅是觸及可能性的表層。我們正讓聯運場站更智慧、更加自動化。我們正在試行可進一步提升燃油效率的計畫，例如讓我們能在列車全程中最佳化速度。在現場作業方面，我們正淘汰紙本流程並轉為數位化流程，以加速溝通、提升資料擷取品質，並改善安全合規。

As we look to the future, we are upgrading our dispatch system to lay the groundwork for enhanced network performance through dynamic real-time routing decisions. We see opportunities to implement predictive analytics in our maintenance programs to both reduce mechanical failures and more systematically identify areas of track most in need of investment. Additionally, beyond these significant operating benefits, we are investing to improve our customer experience and create easier and more streamlined processes for our customers to do business with CSX. Every action we take is designed to make CSX smarter, faster and more reliable.

展望未來，我們正在升級調度系統，為透過動態即時路由決策提升路網表現奠定基礎。我們也看到在維修保養計畫中導入預測分析的機會，以同時降低機械故障，並更系統性地辨識最需要投資的軌道區段。此外，除了這些顯著的營運效益之外，我們也投資改善客戶體驗，為客戶打造更容易、更精簡的流程，以便與 CSX 往來。我們所採取的每一項行動，都是為了讓 CSX 更智慧、更快速、更可靠。

Turning to Slide 9. We remain committed to sustainably managing our own business as well as helping our customers reduce their emission. In 2020, customer shipping with CSX avoided more than 10 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions. To put this in the context, this figure is roughly equivalent to the emissions produced powering all the buildings in New York City for almost a full year. We remain focused on furthering these environmental benefits, not only by continuing to improve the efficiency of our own operations, but also by providing a reliable alternative to trucking that allows our customers to meet their emissions goals without having to sacrifice the reliability of their supply chain. We have set ambitious long-term goals in order to remain leaders in sustainability, and we are committed to expanding the benefits rail offers as the most sustainable mode of land-based transportation.

接著看第 9 頁。我們仍致力於以永續方式管理自身業務，同時協助客戶降低其排放。2020 年，客戶透過 CSX 運輸所避免的二氧化碳排放超過 1,000 萬公噸。作為對照，這個數字大致相當於為紐約市所有建築供電將近一整年所產生的排放量。我們仍專注於進一步擴大這些環境效益，不僅持續提升自身營運效率，也提供相較卡車運輸更可靠的替代方案，讓客戶在不犧牲供應鏈可靠性的前提下達成其減排目標。我們已設定具雄心的長期目標，以持續成為永續領域的領導者，並致力於擴大鐵路作為最永續陸上運輸方式所帶來的效益。

Let's turn to Slide 10 and look at our operating performance for the quarter. Clearly, the simultaneous rapid increase in both volumes and COVID-related employee absences impacted the network. But overall, the railroad is running well, and we were still able to drive incremental efficiencies. Locomotive productivity achieved a new quarterly record for GTMs per available horsepower, and we set a new fourth quarter record for fuel efficiency of 0.94 gallons per 1,000 gross ton-miles.

請看第 10 頁，檢視本季的營運表現。顯然，運量同步快速上升以及與 COVID 相關的員工缺勤，對路網造成影響。但整體而言，鐵路營運狀況良好，我們仍能推動額外的效率提升。機車生產力在「每可用馬力的 GTM」方面創下單季新紀錄，燃油效率也創下第四季新紀錄，達到每 1,000 總噸英里 0.94 加侖。

On Slide 11, our improved efficiency is further illustrated, which compares volumes and asset levels against the pre-COVID and prior year periods. As volumes return, our revised operating plan is allowing us to operate at a sustainably higher level of asset utilization. This is reflected both in the sequential trends where volumes have increased at twice the rate of asset redeployment as well as double-digit productivity gains we have maintained between year-over-year volume and asset levels in the second half. While the team did an excellent job of working during this period to make the network more efficient, our #1 priority remains providing our customers a high-quality service product. There is still significant leverage built into the operating plan. But as volumes grow, we have been and will continue to add crews and locomotives as needed to serve our customers well.

在第 11 頁，我們進一步展示效率提升，將運量與資產水準與 COVID 前及前一年期間進行比較。隨著運量回升，我們修訂後的營運計畫使我們能以可持續的更高資產利用率運作。這反映在連續趨勢上：運量增加的速度是資產重新部署的兩倍；同時在下半年，我們在年對年運量與資產水準之間維持了兩位數的生產力提升。雖然團隊在此期間表現出色，使路網更有效率，但我們的首要任務仍是為客戶提供高品質的服務產品。營運計畫中仍內含顯著的槓桿效益。但隨著運量成長，我們已經並將持續視需要增補人員與機車，以更好地服務客戶。

Turning to Slide 12. Our carload trip plan performance was 75% for the quarter, and intermodal trip plan was 84%. Like all transportation and logistics companies, we have faced challenges from both the rising number of COVID cases, along with broader supply chain disruptions from volatile demand, inventory shortages and imbalanced freight flows. This team has done an admiral job navigating this environment. But we expect these trip plan figures will return to and then exceed our results from the beginning of 2020. While our performance is still at industry-leading levels, we hold ourselves to a higher standard.

接著看第12頁投影片。本季我們的整車（carload）行程計畫達成率為75%，而聯運（intermodal）行程計畫達成率為84%。如同所有運輸與物流公司，我們同時面臨COVID病例數上升，以及更廣泛的供應鏈中斷所帶來的挑戰，包括需求波動、庫存短缺與貨物流向失衡。這個團隊在此環境中展現了出色的應對能力。但我們預期這些行程計畫數據將回到並進一步超越2020年初的表現。雖然我們的表現仍處於業界領先水準，但我們對自己有更高的要求。

I'll now turn it over to Kevin for a review of the financials.

接下來我把時間交給Kevin，請他回顧財務表現。

Thank you, Jim, and good afternoon, everyone. After a challenging year, we are all excited to turn the page to 2021. That said, we accomplished a lot this past year, which sets us up well as the economy recovers from the impact of the pandemic. While many markets remain challenged, we did see an improving business environment in the fourth quarter, and as a result, delivered both volume and operating income growth for the first time in 2020. We manage costs through the year and made sustainable improvements to the train plan, which will drive operating leverage as volumes return. We once again delivered a quarterly record operating ratio. Excluding real estate gains, this marked the third quarterly record in 2020, an extraordinary accomplishment by this entire team.

謝謝你，Jim，各位下午好。在經歷充滿挑戰的一年後，我們都很期待翻開2021年的新頁。話雖如此，我們在過去一年完成了許多工作，讓我們在經濟自疫情衝擊中復甦之際具備良好基礎。儘管許多市場仍面臨挑戰，我們確實在第四季看到商業環境改善，因此在2020年首次同時實現運量與營業利益成長。我們全年控管成本，並對列車計畫做出可持續的改善，當運量回升時將帶動營運槓桿。我們再次創下單季營業比率新低紀錄。若排除不動產收益，這是2020年第三次刷新單季紀錄，對整個團隊而言是非凡的成就。

This past year, we focused on what we could control, navigating the uncertain and volatile business environment, while successfully driving efficiencies across the business. Our goal in 2021 and beyond is to leverage the growth ahead of us by sustaining these efficiency gains and driving further improvement across the business.

過去一年，我們專注於可控事項，在不確定且波動的商業環境中前行，同時成功推動全公司效率提升。我們在2021年及未來的目標，是在維持這些效率成果的同時，進一步推動全公司持續改善，以掌握前方的成長機會。

Looking at the fourth quarter income statement. Revenue was down 2% as continued volume growth and pricing gains in our intermodal business were offset by the ongoing effects of weak coal demand and lower fuel recovery. Merchandise revenue was in line with the fourth quarter of 2019, but we have seen positive momentum as revenue improved 5% sequentially from the third quarter, above normal seasonality.

來看第四季損益表。營收年減2%，因聯運業務持續的運量成長與定價改善，被疲弱的煤炭需求持續影響以及燃油回收（fuel recovery）下降所抵銷。商品（merchandise）營收與2019年第四季大致持平，但我們看到正向動能：營收較第三季按季成長5%，高於正常季節性水準。

Total expenses were down 7% in the quarter on a 4% increase in volume, walking down the expense line items, labor and fringe was 11% lower, reflecting the benefit of the train plan optimization and an 8% reduction in total headcount.

本季總費用年減7%，在運量增加4%的情況下；逐項來看費用科目，勞工與附加福利費用下降11%，反映列車計畫最佳化的效益，以及總人力編制減少8%。

Throughout 2020, our operating team continued to refine the train plan in response to the dynamic volume environment. These improvements enabled significant efficiency in the fourth quarter, as crew starts were down 11%, while overall volumes were up 4%. Lower crew starts in the quarter also translated to fewer active trains and as a result, reduced the need for locomotives.

在2020年期間，我們的營運團隊持續因應動態的運量環境，精進列車計畫。這些改善在第四季帶來顯著效率提升：開班（crew starts）下降11%，而整體運量上升4%。本季較少的開班也意味著在運行的列車更少，因此降低了對機車（locomotives）的需求。

The smaller fleet drove a 14% reduction in our locomotive labor expense. We were also able to hold the line on the significant reductions made earlier in the year to our engineering contract labor expense as well as our intermodal terminal workforce, even as volumes continue to increase sequentially. Lifts per man-hour, a key measure of efficiency for our intermodal workforce improved 23% when compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.

較小的車隊使我們的機車人力費用降低14%。即使運量持續按季增加，我們也得以維持年初對工程合約人力費用以及聯運場站人力所做的大幅削減。每人時吊裝量（lifts per man-hour）是衡量聯運人力效率的關鍵指標，與2019年第四季相比提升23%。

Moving forward, we are preparing for growth. The current environment remains challenging and unpredictable with COVID-related mark-offs significantly impacting pockets of our network. We wish the best for these employees and hope -- and hope for their speedy recovery. Moving forward, we will hopefully begin to see improvement from current levels. We continue to focus on crew availability and are currently accelerating our first half hiring efforts to be prepared in the event of stronger demand. We expect headcount will likely exceed attrition in the first half of the year to provide flexibility, should demand surprise positively, particularly in the second half. We will manage it closely and adjust accordingly as we monitor the trajectory of the potential volume recovery. MS&O expense increased 4% or $19 million in the fourth quarter. Adjusting for the $20 million headwind from real estate gains, MS&O expense would have been roughly flat as efficiency and volume-related savings were offset by inflation and other items.

展望未來，我們正為成長做準備。目前環境仍具挑戰且難以預測，與COVID相關的請假/缺勤（mark-offs）正顯著影響我們網路中的部分區段。我們祝福這些員工一切順利，並希望——也期盼他們能早日康復。往前看，我們希望能從目前水準開始看到改善。我們持續聚焦於乘務人力可用性，目前正加速上半年招募，以便在需求更強時做好準備。我們預期上半年的人力編制可能會高於自然流失，以提供彈性；若需求出現正向驚喜，尤其在下半年。我們將密切管理，並在監測潛在運量復甦軌跡的同時，視情況調整。第四季MS&O費用增加4%，或1,900萬美元。若調整不動產收益帶來的2,000萬美元不利影響，MS&O費用大致持平，因效率與運量相關節省被通膨及其他項目所抵銷。

The improvements to our train plan, I mentioned before, also drove savings, including lower crew travel and repositioning costs, as well as lower locomotive materials and contracted service expense. Real estate gains were minimal in the fourth quarter.

我先前提到的列車計畫改善也帶來節省，包括較低的乘務差旅與調度（repositioning）成本，以及較低的機車材料與外包服務費用。第四季不動產收益很少。

Looking beyond 2020, we continue to manage a pipeline of future properties that we will monetize when conditions are favorable. Our base case is for real estate sales activity to be roughly flat. As I've said before, we will also continue to pursue opportunities to leverage our real estate to generate recurring revenue streams.

展望2020年之後，我們持續管理一批未來可處分的資產，並將在條件有利時進行變現。我們的基本情境是假設不動產出售活動大致持平。如我先前所說，我們也將持續尋找機會，運用不動產資產來創造可重複的經常性收入來源。

Fuel expense was $77 million favorable, a 36% improvement year-over-year, driven by a 33% decrease in the per-gallon price and record fourth quarter fuel efficiency. We continue to invest in technologies that will drive further improvement in fuel efficiency, widening the advantage over truck and demonstrating our continued commitment to sustainability.

燃油費用有利7,700萬美元，年增改善36%，主要受每加侖價格下降33%以及第四季創紀錄的燃油效率所帶動。我們持續投資可進一步提升燃油效率的技術，擴大相對卡車的優勢，並展現我們對永續發展的持續承諾。

Looking at other expenses. The depreciation increased $3 million or 1% in the quarter. This reflects a larger asset base as well as the impact of a road and track depreciation study. Depreciation expense is expected to be a $10 million to $20 million headwind in 2021. Equipment rents expense increased $4 million or 5%, as higher days per load across all markets resulted in increased freight car rents.

來看其他費用。本季折舊增加300萬美元或1%。這反映資產基礎擴大，以及道路與軌道折舊研究的影響。預期2021年折舊費用將帶來1,000萬至2,000萬美元的不利影響。設備租金費用增加400萬美元或5%，因各市場每載重的天數（days per load）提高，導致貨車租金增加。

Turning below the line. Interest expense was flat as higher net debt balances were offset by a lower weighted average coupon. Other income decreased $48 million, reflecting a make-whole charge related to the early redemption of $500 million of long-term notes that were set to mature in 2023.

接著看業外項目。利息費用持平，因淨負債餘額較高被較低的加權平均票息所抵銷。其他收入減少4,800萬美元，反映提前贖回原定於2023年到期的5億美元長期票據所產生的整體補償費（make-whole charge）。

Income tax expense increased $24 million or 11% due to higher pretax income as well as the cycling of certain state and federal tax benefits recognized in the fourth quarter of 2019.

所得稅費用增加2,400萬美元或11%，原因是稅前所得較高，以及2019年第四季認列的部分州與聯邦稅務優惠在本期不再重複。

Closing out the income statement. CSX delivered operating income of $1.2 billion, reflecting a fourth quarter record 57% operating ratio.

最後總結損益表。CSX的營業利益為12億美元，反映第四季創紀錄的57%營業比率。

Turning to the cash side of the equation on Slide 15. On a full year basis, capital investment was relatively flat. Even during the pandemic, we remain committed to investments that prioritize the safety and reliability of our core track, bridge and signal infrastructure. This commitment will not change. And by level loading the maintenance spend, we are improving the safety and fluidity of our network without requiring a step-up in core infrastructure spend going forward.

接著看第15頁投影片的現金面。以全年來看，資本投資大致持平。即使在疫情期間，我們仍致力於優先投資於核心軌道、橋梁與號誌基礎設施的安全與可靠性。這項承諾不會改變。而透過平準化維護支出，我們在不需要未來提高核心基礎設施支出的情況下，提升了網路的安全性與流暢度。

Capital allocation remains a focus. And we have a healthy pipeline of high-return investments we expect to invest in this year.

資本配置仍是我們關注的重點。我們也有一個健康的高報酬投資案源管線，預期今年將投入資金。

In 2020, free cash flow before dividends was $2.6 billion, down versus 2019, primarily reflecting lower operating income, but also impacted by lower proceeds from property sales. Free cash flow generation remains a key focus of this team. Even during 2020's challenging environment, free cash flow conversion, or net income was about 95%.

2020年，股利發放前的自由現金流為26億美元，較2019年下降，主要反映營業利益較低，但也受到不動產出售所得減少的影響。自由現金流的創造仍是本團隊的重點關注事項。即使在2020年充滿挑戰的環境下，自由現金流轉換率（相對於淨利）約為95%。

We expect to stay above 90%, even with slightly higher CapEx and an increase in expected cash tax rate. Our cash and short-term investment balance remains strong, ending the quarter at $3.1 billion. Our expectation remains that this balance will normalize over time as we continue to invest in the business and return capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

即便資本支出略為提高且預期現金稅率上升，我們預期仍可維持在90%以上。我們的現金及短期投資餘額仍然強勁，本季末為31億美元。我們仍預期，隨著我們持續投資業務，並透過股利與庫藏股回購向股東返還資本，該餘額將隨時間推移回歸常態。

With that, let me turn it back to Jim for his closing remarks.

接下來，讓我把時間交回給Jim作結語。

Great. Thanks a lot, Kevin. Concluding with Slide 17. We expect to return to growth in 2021 for both CSX and the U.S. economy. While much debate remains around the pace of this growth as we've transitioned from COVID headwinds to potential stimulus fuel tailwinds, we believe CSX is well positioned to grow volumes faster than the prevailing GDP growth rate in 2021.

很好。非常感謝你，Kevin。最後以第17頁投影片作結。我們預期2021年CSX與美國經濟都將重回成長。儘管在我們從COVID逆風轉向可能由刺激措施帶來的順風之際，對成長速度仍有許多討論，但我們相信CSX具備良好條件，在2021年實現運量成長快於整體GDP成長率。

Merchandise volumes should outpace industrial production growth as we convert additional truck volumes off the highway and onto CSX. We expect intermodal volumes to grow even faster than merchandise as the business continues to benefit from the ongoing inventory restocking and a tight truck market. And following an extremely challenging year, we expect the coal business to begin recovering from 2020 trough levels.

隨著我們將更多卡車運量從公路轉移至CSX，商品運量應可超越工業生產成長。我們預期聯運運量成長將更快於商品運量，因為該業務持續受惠於持續的庫存回補以及緊俏的卡車市場。而在經歷極具挑戰的一年後，我們預期煤炭業務將開始自2020年的低谷水準回升。

As volumes increase, we will drive incremental operating leverage by efficiently absorbing the additional cars and containers into our revised train plan. We still have significant opportunity to add volumes onto the existing trains and we'll add train starts as needed to maintain high levels of customer service.

隨著運量增加，我們將透過有效率地把新增車輛與貨櫃納入我們調整後的列車計畫，來帶動額外的營運槓桿。我們仍有相當大的空間可在既有列車上增加運量，並將視需要增加開行列車，以維持高水準的客戶服務。

We project full year CapEx of $1.7 billion to $1.8 billion. This spend reflects ongoing investments in our core infrastructure, combined with several high-return growth investments for technology and sales and marketing initiatives. We will continue to evaluate attractive growth investment opportunities as they arise.

我們預估全年資本支出為17億至18億美元。此支出反映我們對核心基礎設施的持續投資，並結合數項高報酬的成長投資，用於科技以及銷售與行銷計畫。我們將持續評估在出現時具吸引力的成長投資機會。

But from a network perspective, we still have ample line of road and terminal capacity.

但就路網角度而言，我們仍有充足的正線與場站容量。

Lastly, we remain committed to returning excess cash flow to shareholders. We will repurchase shares through our ongoing buyback program, and we will look to be opportunistic with share repurchases as we utilize our roughly $6 billion of buyback authority.

最後，我們仍致力於將超額現金流返還給股東。我們將透過既有的回購計畫回購股份，並在運用約60億美元的回購授權時，尋求在股份回購上把握有利時機。

The actions taken in 2020 have positioned CSX for success. And we are taking the necessary steps to ensure that we are prepared to handle the expected growth in 2021. This past year that although we have accomplished great things during our transformation, our team is still finding opportunities to push this company to new heights. I enter this year as excited as I have ever been for what the future holds for CSX. Thank you, and I'll now turn it back to Bill for questions.

2020年所採取的行動已使CSX具備成功的基礎。我們也正採取必要步驟，確保已準備好因應2021年預期的成長。過去一年顯示，儘管我們在轉型期間完成了許多重大成果，我們的團隊仍在尋找機會，將公司推向新的高度。我以比以往任何時候都更興奮的心情迎接今年，期待CSX的未來。謝謝，接下來我把時間交回給Bill進行提問。

As you may have noted at the beginning of the call, Mark Wallace is unfortunately not joining us today as he's dealing with a non-COVID personal health issue. The rest of the team will do its best to answer any marketing questions you may have.

如同各位在電話會議一開始可能注意到的，Mark Wallace很遺憾今天無法加入，因為他正在處理一項與COVID無關的個人健康問題。團隊其他成員將盡力回答各位可能提出的任何行銷相關問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

With that, we will now take questions.

接下來，我們將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Your first question comes from the line of Brandon Oglenski from Barclays.

第一個問題來自Barclays的Brandon Oglenski。

Well, Jim, I guess maybe we can start there, unfortunate for Mark, he's not here, but you guys do sound like you have some confidence that merchandise, I think you've said, will grow in excess of industrial production and intermodal, even better than your merchandise outcomes. So I guess, are there any specific examples you can give us where you're winning in the network and delivering this new service product that we've heard about for a couple of years? How's that translating into confidence this year?

Jim，我想我們可以從這裡開始。Mark不在確實可惜，但你們聽起來對商品運量（我想你們說過）將成長並超過工業生產，以及聯運表現甚至會優於商品運量，似乎相當有信心。所以我想問，有沒有任何具體例子可以分享，說明你們如何在路網上取得勝利，並交付我們這幾年聽到的這個新服務產品？這如何轉化為你們對今年的信心？

Well, in many respects, the conversion of trucks off the highway, back onto the rail system has been -- we've talked about it for many years where it's our existing customers today, where we're doing a lot of work with them already in their boxcar fleet. And -- so we know them very well, but we've never really had an opportunity to take a look at their book of business from what they're doing on the other -- on the doors on the other side of the plant, so to speak, where they're sending it out in truck.

嗯，在許多方面，把卡車運量從公路轉回鐵路系統——我們談了很多年——主要是針對我們現有的客戶；我們今天已經與他們合作做了很多工作，特別是在他們的棚車車隊方面。所以我們非常了解他們，但我們過去從未真正有機會去檢視他們的業務組合，也就是他們在「另一邊」——可以說是工廠另一側的出貨門——把貨物用卡車運出去的那部分。

And now that our service product has become more reliable, we've been able to capture more and more of that wallet share. And that applies whether it's in enforced products, whether it's in pulpboard, whether it's in metals, whether it's in chemicals. You name it, we've been able to do that. And I think that's clearly the strategy that we will continue to pursue along with looking at ways through our TRANSFLO opportunities where we can reach customers' business that, before, we didn't have the capability to handle because we didn't focus on kind of the last mile business if we didn't directly connect to a customer's location.

而現在，隨著我們的服務產品變得更可靠，我們得以掌握越來越多的錢包份額。這適用於各種品類，不論是建材產品、紙漿紙板、金屬或化學品。你說得出來的，我們都能做到。我認為這顯然是我們將持續推進的策略；同時也會透過我們的TRANSFLO機會，尋找方法觸及客戶的業務——過去我們沒有能力處理，因為若未直接連到客戶據點，我們並未聚焦於所謂「最後一哩」的業務。

So it's a combination of different factors that spread out really across the entire spectrum of merchandise. And again, principally because our service now is as reliable as a truck. And we -- obviously, maybe it's the easy way, but let's go to our customers that we already know and do business with and shake the tree there. And there is a ton of opportunity for us.

因此，這是多種因素的組合，實際上橫跨整個商品貨運的範疇。而且再次強調，主要原因是我們現在的服務可靠度已可與卡車相當。我們——當然，這也許是比較簡單的方法——但就先從我們已經熟悉、也正在合作的客戶著手，從那裡深挖需求。我們有非常大量的機會。

And again, similarly, in our intermodal franchise, where we're getting more business is we're looking at lanes that before we couldn't compete in because we had somewhat of a disjointed network, and we've worked hard to rationalize and improve the service on the network. And that's bringing us additional business. So we've been building on this for a number of years, and we expect it to continue to pay benefits in '21.

同樣地，在我們的聯運業務方面，我們取得更多業務的方式，是去看一些過去我們無法競爭的運輸走廊，因為我們的路網曾經有些不連貫；而我們已努力多年去精簡並改善路網服務。這正為我們帶來額外的業務。所以我們已經在這上面耕耘了好幾年，並預期在2021年會持續帶來效益。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter from the Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的Ken Hoexter。

Jim, maybe you could just talk a bit about the missed business opportunity given COVID. Kevin kind of threw out some thoughts that there was a missed opportunity. Can you quantify your thoughts looking back and maybe what that means as how fast you bring employees back into '21?

Jim，也許你可以談談因COVID而錯失的業務機會。Kevin提到了一些想法，認為存在錯失的機會。你能否回頭量化一下你的看法，以及這對你們在2021年把員工召回的速度意味著什麼？

In terms of missed opportunities, we have -- we, CSX are no different than anybody else in the country. And our employees have been impacted by the virus to the same degree as everyone else, if not more, in the transportation sector because they're essential workers, and they're out there on the front lines in and out every single day, making sure the goods get across the country and we can take care of people that are -- have the luxury to sit home and ride this thing out.

就錯失的機會而言，我們——我們CSX和全國其他任何人都沒有不同。我們的員工受到病毒影響的程度與其他人相同，甚至在運輸業可能更嚴重，因為他們是必要工作者，每天都在第一線進出工作現場，確保貨物能在全國運送，並照顧那些——有條件待在家裡度過這段期間的人。

So if we've missed any opportunities, it's been as the surge of traffic came back in the third quarter, just about the time the virus began to tick up. And then clearly, it took off with the Thanksgiving holiday. So we're aware of that. We're prepared for that. And maybe we've missed something along the way. I think what Kevin was more and more concerned was and Kevin is not bashful to express his opinions on this. We think that based upon all the work we've done for the company to make sure that we can grow this business, and with the potential for a rebound in the economy, and with the potential for maybe stimulus, and with the potential for maybe additional transportation spend by the government, we don't want to miss out on something if it comes along, we want to be ready to handle it. So we're planning, we're preparing. We're making sure -- clearly, we have track capacity. Clearly, we have assets in terms of locomotives, et cetera.

所以如果我們錯失了任何機會，那可能是在第三季車流量回升的同時，病毒也差不多開始再度攀升。然後很明顯地，在感恩節假期期間就迅速升溫。所以我們注意到了這點。我們也為此做好準備。而且也許我們在過程中確實漏掉了一些東西。我認為 Kevin 越來越在意的是——而且 Kevin 也不害羞表達他對這件事的看法。我們認為，基於我們為公司所做的所有工作，以確保我們能夠成長這項業務，再加上經濟反彈的可能性、可能的刺激方案，以及政府可能增加交通運輸支出的可能性，我們不希望如果機會出現時卻錯過；我們希望能隨時準備好去承接。所以我們在規劃、在準備。我們在確保——很明顯地，我們有軌道運能。很明顯地，我們也有資產，例如機車等等。

What we want to make sure is that we have the employees. And this is not like we can go hire some guy off the street and put him to work the next day. It takes 5, 6 months to train these people to get them ready. So we're aware of the curve and we want to make sure that we're managing to the curve. And so I think that's what Kevin was referring to in any missed opportunity, was to make sure that we're prepared to handle growth when it comes.

我們想要確保的是，我們有人力。而這不像是我們可以隨便從街上找個人來，隔天就讓他上工。要把這些人訓練到能上線，需要 5、6 個月的時間。所以我們了解這條曲線，並希望確保我們是在沿著這條曲線進行管理。因此我想 Kevin 所指的任何錯失機會，就是要確保當成長來臨時，我們已經準備好能夠承接。

Your next question comes from the line of Amit Mehrotra from Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Amit Mehrotra。

Kevin, I guess, with the dynamic of intermodal growth outpacing merchandise growth this year, do you think yields can be up in 2021 versus 2020? And then if you can just also talk about the magnitude of OR improvement? How should we think about OR improvement, given the benefits of higher volume, but then obviously, some of the adverse mix that comes with the intermodal outpacing merchandise?

Kevin，我想在今年聯運（intermodal）成長速度超過一般貨運（merchandise）成長的情況下，你認為 2021 年的單位收益（yields）會比 2020 年提高嗎？另外，也請你談談營運比率（OR）改善的幅度。在運量增加帶來的好處之下，但同時聯運成長快於一般貨運所造成的不利組合（mix）也存在，我們應該如何看待 OR 的改善？

Yes. I think, as I mentioned last quarter, we had the greatest contribution from our intermodal business, which has traditionally been viewed as a least profitable segment of our business. But yes, we put up a record OR. I think we again proved that in the fourth quarter, you saw the intermodal business, obviously, having the strongest growth. And again, we were able to deliver record OR performance. As we go into 2021, as with any year, there's normal inflation costs that you have to offset and overcome as you want to improve your margins going into next year. We have labor inflation, a little bit higher than what we saw in 2020. We have health and welfare costs ticking up a little bit more than what we saw last year. But really, inflation, when I look over the long-term average, it's probably a little bit under that long-term average. So not a huge, significant headwind. But really, the variable here is going to be the growth. I'm very confident if growth exceeds our expectations that we'll drop that through at a very attractive incremental margin.

是的。我想如同我上季提到的，我們聯運業務的貢獻是最大的；而聯運傳統上被視為我們業務中獲利能力最低的區塊。但沒錯，我們繳出了創紀錄的 OR。我認為第四季我們再次證明了這點，你看到聯運業務顯然有最強的成長。而且我們仍能交出創紀錄的 OR 表現。展望 2021 年，和任何一年一樣，若要提升明年的利潤率，你必須抵消並克服正常的通膨成本。我們有人力成本通膨，會比 2020 年略高一些。我們的健康與福利成本也會比去年再上升一些。但就通膨而言，若我看長期平均，其實可能還略低於長期平均。所以不是很大、很顯著的逆風。但真正的變數會是成長。我非常有信心，如果成長超出我們的預期，我們將能以非常具吸引力的增量利潤率把它轉化為獲利。

Our goal here is to be prepared for the growth, to grow operating income. That's really the goal of what we're talking about around here. It's exciting to talk about and prepare for growth. And so that's what we're looking at. I mentioned in the first half of the year, we'll accelerate our hiring to make sure we're prepared for whatever environment comes in the second half. And Jamie will quickly adjust accordingly if things change on us, which, as we know, this has been a dynamic environment, and we just want to be ahead of the curve and be prepared for it and be able to deliver.

我們的目標是為成長做好準備，並提升營業利益。這才是我們在這裡所談論的核心目標。談論並為成長做準備是令人振奮的。所以這就是我們正在評估的方向。我提到在上半年，我們會加速招募，以確保我們能為下半年可能出現的任何環境做好準備。而如果情況有變，Jamie 也會迅速做出相應調整；如同我們所知，這一直是個動態的環境，我們只想走在曲線之前、做好準備，並能夠交出成果。

I think we all say, shame on us if we can't deliver the growth when it comes. And so that's what we're talking about here internally.

我想我們都會說，如果成長來了我們卻交不出來，那就是我們的問題。所以這就是我們內部正在討論的重點。

Could you just answer the yield question in terms of whether you think yields will be up year-over-year in '21?

你能否就單位收益的問題回答一下：你是否認為 2021 年的單位收益會較去年同期成長？

Yes. I think when you look at the first half of the year, we'll have some fuel surcharge. Fuel will still be a headwind really in the first quarter. Will start -- that will start to moderate as you get in the second quarter. So second half of the year, you'll see a little bit less fuel surcharge headwind.

是的。我認為如果看上半年，我們會有一些燃油附加費（fuel surcharge）。燃油在第一季仍會是逆風。到了第二季，這個影響會開始——會開始趨於緩和。所以在下半年，你會看到燃油附加費的逆風會小一些。

Coal in the first half of the year, probably on a yield basis, will be a little bit of a headwind. Obviously, you know that market is pretty dynamic, particularly on the export side, but see some support going in the second half of the year. So I would say, definitely expect second half to be improved over first half, but that always goes back to mix as well as we see some of our higher RPU business whether it's chemicals or other areas, see continued strength, that certainly helps the dynamic there.

煤炭在上半年，從單位收益的角度來看，可能會帶來一些逆風。很顯然你也知道，那個市場相當動態，尤其是在出口端，但在下半年會看到一些支撐。所以我會說，下半年肯定會比上半年改善；但這也總是回到組合（mix），同時如果我們一些每單位收入（RPU）較高的業務——不論是化學品或其他領域——持續強勁，當然也會改善那個態勢。

But the coal dynamic should moderate first half of the year and really not be as much of a headwind going forward.

不過煤炭的態勢在上半年應會趨於緩和，往後也不會再是那麼大的逆風。

Your next question comes from the line of Allison Landry from Crédit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸（Crédit Suisse）的 Allison Landry。

Great job on the quarter. Without specifically focusing on where the OR can go in 2021, I sort of wanted to ask a longer-term question. I mean, it sort of seems feasible to do a 55% OR this year. But I mean it just seems like you guys are pushing the boundaries of what we thought might have been either remotely possible for an eastern rail. So I would just love to hear your thoughts on how you view the potential for the longer-term profitability of the business.

本季表現很棒。我不想特別聚焦在 2021 年 OR 能到哪裡，而是想問一個比較長期的問題。我的意思是，今年做到 55% 的 OR 似乎是可行的。但看起來你們正在突破我們原本認為對一家東部鐵路公司而言，可能性邊界甚至是幾乎不可能的水準。所以我很想聽聽你們如何看待這項業務長期獲利能力的潛力。

I mean, obviously, you guys are gaining share. And Jim, you highlighted a number of efficiencies that will come in the future from technology investments. So any thought there? And then just sort of lastly, Jim, if you could sort of tell us what you think about the difference between a long-haul and a short-haul railroad as it comes down to it's a long-term profitability and if there are truly already any structural differences?

我的意思是，很明顯你們正在提升市占。而 Jim，你也強調了未來透過科技投資將帶來多項效率提升。所以對此有什麼想法嗎？最後，Jim，如果你能談談你如何看待長途（long-haul）與短途（short-haul）鐵路在長期獲利能力上的差異，以及是否確實已經存在任何結構性的不同？

Great, Allison. Good one question. So a couple -- 3 years ago, it was just only a couple, 3 years ago when we were in New York talking about how we were going to take this wear-out, beat-up, run-down railroad and have a 60% operating ratio in a couple of 3 years, and everybody said, you guys are crazy, can't be done.

很好，Allison。這是一個好問題。所以有幾點——三年前，其實也就是兩三年前，我們在紐約談到要如何把這條磨損、被折騰、破舊的鐵路，在兩三年內做到 60% 的營運比率，而大家都說你們瘋了，做不到。

And now I think you said you want double nickels here in next year. We're trying to grow operating income and earnings per share so that we can reward our shareholders and not just get singularly focused on these operating ratio. So the operating ratio pretty much will be what it is. Obviously, you saw what we can do when we get our hands dirty and we get focused on what needs to be done in order to run the company better. I truly believe as Jamie and his team get in collaboration with Mark and the sales and marketing team collaborate on how we need to get this company running more even much, much, much more reliably and faster in the future in order to provide a better quality product to our customers.

而且現在我想你說你希望明年在這裡做到「雙五」的水準。我們正努力提升營業利益與每股盈餘，這樣我們才能回饋股東，而不是只是一味地把焦點放在這些營業比率上。所以營業比率大致上就是它會呈現的樣子。很明顯地，你也看到當我們捲起袖子、把注意力集中在為了把公司經營得更好所必須做的事情上時，我們能做到什麼。我真心相信，當Jamie和他的團隊與Mark合作，並且與銷售與行銷團隊協作，去思考未來我們需要如何讓這家公司運行得更平穩、更可靠、而且更快，以便為客戶提供更高品質的產品。

The necessary result, the ultimate result of all of that is that we take a lot of crazy unnecessary activities out of the system that we do today, and that drives down the cost. So without focusing on a specific reduction in the operating ratio, I firmly believe that we will continue to drive efficiency, but as we -- and we'll do that as we focus on -- and we'll focus -- as we focused on driving -- building a better product for our customers.

這一切的必要結果、最終結果，就是我們把目前系統裡許多瘋狂且不必要的活動移除，而這會帶動成本下降。因此，即使不把焦點放在營業比率要降低到某個特定數字上，我仍堅信我們會持續推動效率提升；而我們會在專注於——並且我們會專注——在我們專注於推動——為客戶打造更好的產品時，做到這一點。

In terms of in terms of short-haul railroads with -- versus long-haul railroads within the operating ratio, again, every railroad is slightly different. Every railroad has its nuances. Used to -- we used to have some really, really, really nice long-haul routes across Western Canada back in the day when I used to work there. And it was very nice to ride along and take a look at the moose and some green fields and a little bit of this, a little bit of that, go for a couple of thousand miles. But there weren't any customers.

就短程鐵路相對於長程鐵路在營業比率上的差異而言，再次強調，每一家鐵路公司都略有不同。每一家鐵路公司都有其細微差異。以前——我以前在那裡工作時，過去我們在加拿大西部有一些非常、非常、非常棒的長程路線。沿途搭乘觀察麋鹿、一些綠色田野，這裡一點、那裡一點，跑上幾千英里，確實很愜意。但那裡沒有客戶。

Here, we're like winding around and maybe got a little shorter haul, a little more challenges. And -- we're stopping all the time because we've got customers all over the place. So they come -- it comes with what it is. This is -- there's a lot of business activity in the east that we have the opportunity here to take advantage of. And that's a good thing. And another part of my history goes back to my days at the Chicago and North Western when we built the line into the part of their basin -- their coal fields, a subsidiary called Western Railroad Properties, which is about 200 miles long, hit an operating ratio that started with a floor handle.

在這裡，我們像是在蜿蜒前進，可能是比較短的運距，也更具挑戰。而且——我們一直在停靠，因為客戶到處都是。所以這就是它所伴隨的現實。這裡——東部有大量的商業活動，我們在這裡有機會加以把握。這是好事。我經歷的另一段歷史可以追溯到我在芝加哥與西北鐵路（Chicago and North Western）的日子，當時我們把線路建到他們盆地的一部分——他們的煤田；有一家名為Western Railroad Properties的子公司，長約200英里，其營業比率一開始就以「6字頭」開局。

So every piece of -- every railroad property is different. Every railroad property is unique. Our goal is to have the best quality product and do it in the most efficient way. And if we do those 2 things, the thing that happens is we make a lot of money doing it.

所以每一段——每一項鐵路資產都不同。每一項鐵路資產都是獨特的。我們的目標是提供最高品質的產品，並以最有效率的方式做到。如果我們做到這兩件事，結果就是我們能因此賺到很多錢。

Your next question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz from UBS.

下一個問題來自UBS的Tom Wadewitz。

I wanted to see if you could give a sense about -- I think, Kevin, you said you're going to add headcount above the pace of attrition. I know there's a lead time to have [T&Y], get them recruited and get them trained up and on the system. So I would assume you have pretty good visibility to what that number is, if you look at the next quarter or 2. And wanted to see if you could give us a sense is that sequentially 1% increase or 3%? Or just kind of magnitude? Is it a big step-up? Or is it something that's pretty gradual and is that something we should think about in terms of our margin modeling in first half of the year? Or is it just kind of small, so it doesn't really affect how you deal with incrementals or margins?

我想了解一下——我想Kevin你提到你們會在自然流失（attrition）的速度之上增加人力。我知道要把[T&Y]招募進來、訓練完成並上線需要一段前置時間。所以我推測你們對這個數字應該有相當好的能見度，如果看接下來一到兩個季度。想請你們給我們一個概念：按季是增加1%還是3%？或是大概的量級？這會是一個很大的跳升嗎？還是會是相當漸進的？我們在上半年做利潤率模型時需要把它納入考量嗎？還是其實很小，不太會影響你們對增量利潤或利潤率的處理？

No. This is -- and maybe I'll hand it over to Jamie to talk a little bit about his strategy and what he's really planning for here. But no, these aren't in order of magnitude, huge step-up in our hiring process. A lot of it's to get ahead of the attrition rates that we see coming ahead in 2021. Really, I think we're pretty confident that, again, we're going to have the operating leverage that we've continued to deliver. So I wouldn't expect headcount to go up more than the volumes that we're going to see and the revenue increases, and we'll adjust the model accordingly as I think we have more visibility, hopefully, going forward on where volumes are trending.

不會。這個——也許我把問題交給Jamie，請他談談他的策略，以及他在這裡真正的規劃。但不，這在量級上不是我們招募流程中的巨大跳升。其中很大一部分是為了提前因應我們看到2021年將出現的流失率。我想我們相當有信心，再次強調，我們會維持並持續交付我們一直以來的營運槓桿。所以我不預期人力會增加得比我們將看到的運量與營收增長還多；而且隨著我們對未來運量趨勢有更多能見度，我們會相應調整模型。

We've seen a lot of volatility in every market out there. And hopefully, that volatility starts to diminish here a bit as we move to the second half of the year. Jamie?

我們在每個市場都看到很大的波動。希望隨著我們進入下半年，這些波動能稍微收斂一些。Jamie？

Yes, thanks. Look, if I was to look at percentages, when you think about it, our attrition rate is somewhere around 8% per year, so what we want to do is kind of front-load that attrition rate, keep a good eye on our discussions with Mark and his team to make sure we're ahead of that business that might be coming our way as we progress through the year, which then allows us to backfill the rest of that attrition towards the back end of the year.

是的，謝謝。你看，如果用百分比來看，我們的年度流失率大約在8%左右；所以我們想做的是把這個流失率的補人安排前置，同時密切關注我們與Mark及其團隊的討論，確保隨著年度推進、若有業務朝我們而來，我們能走在前面，這樣就能在年底前段再把剩餘的流失缺口補齊。

If the business doesn't come, we'll be in a situation where we can at least attrit out to the end of the year and go from there. So, as Jim said, it takes 4 to 6 months to make a conductor. So we don't get ahead of this now and the business comes along, we're going to be leaving it on the ground, and that's the last thing we want to do.

如果業務沒有來，我們至少也會處在一個可以靠自然流失一路到年底、再視情況處理的狀態。所以，如Jim所說，培養一名列車長需要4到6個月。如果我們現在不提前準備，而業務又來了，我們就會把生意「丟在地上」做不了，這是我們最不想看到的。

So the headcount increases sequentially early in the year. And then if the business isn't there, the attrition could kick in and it could fall back off. Is that essentially what you're saying?

所以年初人力會按季增加。然後如果業務不在，流失就會開始發生，人力可能又會回落。這基本上就是你的意思嗎？

Absolutely. That's how we're setting it up. You got it.

完全正確。我們就是這樣來設定的。你說對了。

Your next question comes from the line of Justin Long from Stephens.

下一個問題來自Stephens的Justin Long。

Wanted to ask about comp for employee. Kevin, any color you can provide on what you're expecting there over the course of 2021? And then maybe for Jamie, I was wondering if we could get an update on the number of locomotives in storage today and what you're anticipating for that utilization rate going forward?

我想問一下員工薪酬。Kevin，你能否補充一下你們對2021年全年員工薪酬的預期？另外也想請教Jamie，能否更新一下目前封存（storage）的機車數量，以及你對未來使用率的預期？

Yes. I'll take the comp per employee. Look, as I talked about in my opening remarks, we're going to see a little bit of more labor inflation this year. We'll see the management increase take effect here, January 1, which is a little bit different than what we've seen in previous years. So that will be effective in the first quarter. But overall, I think historically, we talked about this 3% increase and without knowing what really incentive comp can move around quarter-to-quarter, all those things. I think a 3% kind of range is a good starting point.

好的。我先回答每位員工的薪酬。你看，正如我在開場談到的，今年我們會看到勞動成本有些許更高的通膨。我們會看到管理層加薪自1月1日起生效，這和過去幾年看到的情況有點不同。因此這會在第一季反映出來。但整體而言，歷史上我們談過大約3%的增幅；而在不確定獎勵性薪酬（incentive comp）會如何在季度間波動等因素下，我認為以約3%的區間作為起點是合理的。

And look, on the asset side, in particular, locomotives, we started this back in 2017 with almost 4,000 locomotives, our fleet's down 2150, I think, today, right around that area. So we've got hundreds of locomotives still in storage ready to pull out when needed. But we're also continuing to invest in our locomotive fleet. I mean our CapEx coming up this year. We're going to continue to rebuild locomotives. We've got 67 in the plan this year, and continuing to do that as we go forward.

再看資產端，特別是機車部分，我們在2017年開始做這件事，當時大約有將近4,000台機車；我想目前我們的車隊已降到2,150台左右，就在那個區間。所以我們仍有數百台機車在封存中，需要時可隨時拉出來使用。但我們也持續投資於機車車隊。我的意思是，我們今年即將到來的資本支出（CapEx）。我們會持續進行機車翻修。今年計畫是67台，並且未來也會持續這樣做。

It's really important that we continue to invest in the assets that we have. And that allows us to put trip optimizer, distributed power, fuel savings, as well as reliability. So we're comfortable with the assets that we have now. We just want to continue to invest in rebuilding what we have going forward.

我們持續投資於既有資產非常重要。這讓我們能導入行程最佳化（trip optimizer）、分散式動力（distributed power）、燃油節省，以及可靠性提升。因此，我們對目前擁有的資產狀況感到放心。我們只是希望未來持續投資，把現有設備持續翻修下去。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自Wolfe Research的Scott Group。

So Kevin, any color you can give us on MS&O costs that you expect for the year? I know it's volatile, but any color there? And then on the OR, I know we're not getting guidance, but almost always the full year OR is better than fourth quarter. Is there anything wrong with that line of thinking right now?

Kevin，能否就你們預期今年的MS&O成本提供一些補充說明？我知道它波動很大，但能否談談大概情況？另外關於OR（營運比率），我知道你們不提供指引，但幾乎每次全年OR都會優於剛結束的第四季。以目前來看，這樣的推論有什麼不妥嗎？

The first quarter, better than the fourth quarter?

第一季會比第四季好嗎？

No. Meaning if you look at a full year, it's almost always better than the fourth quarter you just had. And the fourth quarter...

不是。我的意思是，如果你看全年表現，幾乎總是會比你剛經歷的第四季更好。而第四季……

Yes. Again, I think we gave relative revenue guidance because there is a little bit of uncertainty, I think, as you get into the second half, hopefully, some of these initiatives that Jim talked about will take hold and we'll see the economy strengthen through the back half of the year. I think we're real comfortable just saying that we're pretty confident in the incremental margins that we've been able to deliver, and we'll continue to do that, particularly if we get stronger revenue growth than we expect there. So that's the opportunity.

是的。再說一次，我想我們給的是相對的營收指引，因為我認為進入下半年仍有一些不確定性；希望Jim提到的部分措施能夠奏效，並且我們能看到經濟在下半年走強。我想我們很有信心地說，我們對已經交付的增量利潤率（incremental margins）相當有把握，而且會持續做到，特別是如果營收成長比我們預期更強。所以那就是機會所在。

On the MS&O, when you look at the fourth quarter, really, we're able to deliver what we thought we're going to do when we guided in the third quarter. Real estate sales going into '21 will be flat. So not a real big factor or driver on those costs on a year-over-year basis. We do expect inflation to hit us in '21 there. But again, it's an area where we have a lot of focus, and we'll continue to try to find opportunities to take out costs. So I think expect some normal inflation impact to that line item, but nothing real impactful there moving into '21. It will move also with volume. So if volume is a little bit higher than what we expect. You would see some variable costs move up with that as well.

關於MS&O，回頭看第四季，我們確實做到了第三季給指引時所預期能做到的水準。2021年的不動產出售將持平。因此，這些成本在年對年比較上不會是很大的因素或驅動項。我們確實預期2021年會受到通膨影響。但同樣地，這是我們高度聚焦的領域，我們會持續尋找降低成本的機會。所以我認為，這個科目會有一些正常的通膨影響，但進入2021年不會有什麼特別重大的衝擊。它也會隨著運量變動。因此，如果運量略高於我們預期，你也會看到一些變動成本隨之上升。

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Wetherbee from Citi.

下一個問題來自Citi的Chris Wetherbee。

I guess, I want to ask question about service. We think about the second half of the year. Obviously, service was a little bit more challenged, still quite good, but down from where you were in the first half of the year. And when you think about sort of headcount and maybe resources, is there a level, I guess, number one, on the services or a level where you feel like you're comfortable or maybe you need to address it to move the needle moving back up? And then second, when you think about maybe a little bit of the front load from a headcount perspective, does that have an impact on the service? Or would you expect that to have an impact on the services as you move into the first half of the year?

我想問一個關於服務的問題。我們看下半年。顯然服務面臨的挑戰稍微多一些，仍然相當不錯，但比上半年時的水準有所下滑。當你們考量人力編制以及可能的資源配置時，第一，你們在服務上是否有一個你們覺得舒適的水準，或是需要採取措施來把指標拉回去、讓表現回升？第二，若從人力角度看，可能有一些提前配置（front load），這會對服務造成影響嗎？或者你會預期，當你們進入上半年時，這會對服務產生影響嗎？

Yes. Let me just make a general comment and then Jamie can answer you into details about where we are in terms of headcount. I think the railroads are not unique in the second half of the year. This phenomena with everyone trying to keep up with this unprecedented volume is creating issues whether it be in foreign ports, whether it be in ocean vessels, whether it be in the West Coast ports, the East Coast ports, the railroads, the trucks, logistics service providers, you name it. Everybody is dealing with a situation where volumes are unprecedented and volatile. At the same time, when we have hundreds, literally hundreds of employees off sick or in quarantine. In one day, it's on the West side of the railroad. The next day, it's on the East side of the rail. The next say, it's in the North side of the road. Next day, it's in Florida. And so for us to be doing the job from a service standpoint right now, I don't think anybody is saying -- they're having problems because the railroads are screwed up. We're doing a really, really, really good job of managing our way through this. And I'll let Jamie talk, in some more detail, about what it is we're doing.

是的。我先做一個概括性的評論，接著Jamie可以更細節地回答我們在人力編制方面的情況。我認為鐵路業在下半年並不特殊。這種現象——每個人都在努力跟上這種前所未見的運量——正在造成問題，不論是在海外港口、海運船舶、西岸港口、東岸港口、鐵路、卡車、物流服務供應商，隨便你說得出來的。每個人都在面對運量前所未見且波動劇烈的情況。同時，我們有數百名員工——真的是數百名——因病或隔離而缺勤。今天可能發生在鐵路西部。明天可能在鐵路東部。後天可能在北部路段。再下一天可能在佛羅里達。因此，就我們目前在服務面所做的工作而言，我不認為有人會說——他們遇到問題是因為鐵路公司搞砸了。我們在管理並度過這段期間方面做得非常、非常、非常好。我讓Jamie更詳細談談我們正在做些什麼。

I think Jim really nailed it with respect to some of the pockets we're seeing and why some of the levels aren't where they were historically. But you really look at some of the stuff that we have gained as well. When you look at -- to a 19% all-time record train length, the increase year-over-year, the fuel efficiency, everything else that we've been able to keep and maintain and continue to move forward as we talk about 2021. I can tell you today, as we see, Jim said, hundreds and hundreds of employees are off, that's correct. And as we start to see 100 employees less, let's say, today than we were a few weeks ago, yes, we're starting to feel that we're getting even more fluid. So as those numbers come down, we feel like we have the right number of people out there if we -- if everyone returned to work.

我認為Jim對於我們看到的一些局部狀況，以及為什麼某些水準不如以往，講得非常到位。但你也要看我們同時取得的一些成果。例如，你看——列車長度達到19%的歷史新高紀錄、年對年增加幅度、燃油效率，以及我們能夠維持並持續推進的其他各項成果，這些都是我們在談2021年時仍能延續的。我今天可以告訴你，正如Jim所說，我們確實有數百、數百名員工缺勤。而當我們開始看到缺勤人數下降——比如說，今天比幾週前少了100名員工缺勤——是的，我們開始感覺運作更順暢。所以當這些數字下降時，我們覺得如果——如果大家都回來上班——我們在現場的人力數量是合適的。

Now I wish I could predict where the next pocket was going to be and try to send people that way, but it's difficult to do that. So yes, we're going to hit some bumps and bruises, I think, over the next quarter or so, on some of our service levels, but we are pushing. And is there a limit where we're happy? No, absolutely not. We've got -- if anyone wants to ask the question, is there anything left? What else are you going to continue to do? It's normally a question we get asked. Well, our dwell and velocity isn't where it needs to be. That's an opportunity.

現在，我希望我能預測下一個會出現缺口的區域，並試著把人派過去，但這很難做到。所以是的，我認為在接下來一季左右，我們的某些服務水準可能會遇到一些顛簸與小挫折，但我們正在全力推進。那有沒有一個讓我們滿意的上限？沒有，絕對沒有。我們還有——如果有人想問，還有沒有什麼可以做？你們接下來還要繼續做什麼？這通常是大家會問我們的問題。嗯，我們的停留時間（dwell）和速度（velocity）還沒有達到應有水準。那就是一個機會。

So as we continue to maintain all the hard work that we've done with the new plan, and the team that I've got out there working hard day in and day out on dwell and velocity and what's going on in the terminals, we're going to get that much better. And as business comes back and as we do some hiring, it helps us move the new commodities that we have come online. But really, what we have today is just a matter of dealing with the pockets that are out there.

因此，當我們持續維持新計畫下已完成的所有辛勤成果，以及我在第一線日復一日努力、專注於停留時間（dwell）、速度（velocity）與場站（terminals）運作狀況的團隊，我們就會變得更好。而隨著業務回升、以及我們進行一些招募，也有助於我們推動新上線的商品類別。但說到底，我們今天面對的，主要就是處理那些零星存在的「局部區域」問題。

I can tell you, it is a daily exercise in trying to understand how some terminals we work around 40% of our employees being off on COVID. It doesn't just normally hit a small percentage. We do have it across the property. But we have some pockets where 40% of our employees are gone for a period of time. We've got a great team that moves into there, helps out. We work ourselves through it. We work around it, which is great about the network we have as we can do that, and continue to move the product.

我可以告訴你，這是一項每天都要做的功課：試著理解為什麼某些場站我們必須在約40%的員工因COVID缺勤的情況下運作。它並不只是通常影響一小部分人。我們的確在整個系統內都有發生。但有些局部區域會出現40%的員工在一段時間內都不在的情況。我們有一支很棒的團隊會進駐那裡協助。我們把它撐過去。我們也能繞開它運作——這正是我們網路的優勢，因為我們做得到，並且能持續運送產品。

Look, we will see our numbers continue to improve as we move forward. But again, it's -- sometimes it's a daily exercise depending on where we're having our COVID issues.

你看，隨著我們往前走，我們的數字會持續改善。但再說一次——有時候這是每天都要面對的功課，取決於我們在哪些地方出現COVID問題。

Your next question comes from the line of Bascome Majors from Susquehanna.

下一個問題來自Susquehanna的Bascome Majors。

Kevin, you talked about your excess cash balance and looking to normalize it over time. Is that something you're targeting for this year? Or could that be more gradual? Just any thoughts on how you want to manage your liquidity and balance sheet with the cash flow you expect to generate this year would be helpful.

Kevin，你談到你們的超額現金餘額，並希望隨時間將其正常化。這是你們今年的目標嗎？還是可能會更為循序漸進？另外，關於你們想如何運用今年預期產生的現金流來管理流動性與資產負債表，若能分享一些想法會很有幫助。

Yes. I think, look, I would expect something lower by the time we exit this year. So yes, I think that's probably a this-year event. We'll watch it closely here. Certainly, as we get more comfortable with the trajectory of the economy and those things, we'll have those discussions internally here on what makes sense. We always want to be opportunistic. So we'll be there opportunistically in the stock as well. So it gives us a lot of flexibility. We're going to generate a lot of cash this year as well. So it's a good position to be in. It's a position of strength. And we'll do the best we can.

是的。我想，你看，我預期到今年年底時會比現在低一些。所以是的，我認為這大概會是今年會發生的事。我們會在這裡密切觀察。當然，隨著我們對經濟走勢與相關因素的軌跡更有把握，我們會在內部討論什麼做法才合理。我們一向希望把握機會。因此我們也會在股票方面伺機而動。這讓我們有很大的彈性。今年我們也會產生大量現金。所以這是一個很好的位置。這是一個強勢的狀態。我們會盡我們所能把事情做好。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Ossenbeck from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自JPMorgan的Brian Ossenbeck。

Jamie, maybe I'll take you up on the dwell and velocity one. They have deteriorated for while there. Obviously, volumes have been quite volatile. I think you have longer trains to help offset that challenge. It doesn't seem to be a headwind financially now, but we've also seen cars online come up quite a bit. So maybe you can dig in a little bit deeper and give us a sense as to what has been a challenge outside of labor and what you see sort of the opportunities, maybe a time frame as to to seeing some improvement.

Jamie，也許我就停留時間（dwell）和速度（velocity）這點請教你。它們在一段時間內有所惡化。顯然，運量一直相當波動。我想你們用更長的列車來幫助抵消這個挑戰。目前看起來在財務上似乎不是逆風，但我們也看到線上車輛數（cars online）增加了不少。所以也許你可以再深入一點，讓我們了解除了勞動力之外，還有哪些挑戰，以及你看到的機會是什麼，並且大概在什麼時間範圍內能看到一些改善。

And then, Jim, if you could comment on the growth opportunities you're seeing for the truck conversion side, it doesn't sound like any of the service challenges now or in recent quarters are really affecting anything, but [anything you can] just clarify that for us as well, if the customers are just needing capacity and you have it, and it's really just tough out there for everybody.

另外，Jim，如果你能評論一下你們在卡車轉換（truck conversion）方面看到的成長機會：聽起來目前或最近幾季的服務挑戰並沒有真正影響到什麼，但如果[你能]也幫我們釐清一下——客戶是否只是需要運能而你們有供給，而整體環境對大家來說都很艱難。

Okay. I'll try to take a stab at -- you're hard to hear, but let me try to work down with respect to where we're sitting with some of our metrics. So yes, our dwell and our velocity definitely has been impacted here over the past couple -- probably a couple of months, but we've seen probably more of a deterioration really over the past month. I have to take a look at some of our numbers. And again, a lot of that's COVID-related.

好的。我試著回答一下——你那邊有點聽不清楚，但我先試著就我們一些指標目前的狀況往下說。所以是的，我們的停留時間（dwell）和速度（velocity）在過去幾個——大概幾個月確實受到影響，但我們看到更明顯的惡化其實是在過去一個月左右。我得再看一下我們的一些數字。而且再說一次，其中很多是與COVID相關。

But for us, it's really important to show that as an opportunity as well. As we continue to move things faster and we get our dwell to where we know it can be and will be. Those are costs that are going to continue to come out as we look at our plan. Cars online, our target -- we're a little bit above where our target -- where we really want it to be. But you got to think when we started this back in 2017, we were over 150,000 cars online. Now we're somewhere around 100,000, maybe 120,000 depending on where you're looking at it. We have done some things differently on that.

但對我們來說，把這也視為一個機會同樣很重要。當我們持續加快運轉，並把停留時間（dwell）拉回到我們知道它可以、也將會達到的水準。隨著我們檢視計畫，這些成本會持續被移除。線上車輛數（cars online），我們的目標——我們目前略高於目標，也就是略高於我們真正希望的水準。但你得想想，當我們在2017年開始做這件事時，線上車輛數超過150,000輛。現在我們大概在100,000輛左右，可能是120,000輛，取決於你怎麼看。我們在這方面做了一些不同的作法。

There was a time, I would say, a year ago where we were shooting for a 90% fill rate because we didn't necessarily understand whether the fill rate was correct, what the customers were ordering and not ordering. Mark and his team have done an unbelievable job working with us to understand that, that fill rate now, pushing it to 100%, gives us that extra business that Jim's been talking about, about knocking on our customers' doors to say, hey, why are you trucking when you got rail service, give it to us and allow us that reliability. That means at some point, you're going to have to bring on some cars online as you take a look at fulfilling 100% fill rate.

我會說，大約一年前有一段時間，我們追求90%的滿載率（fill rate），因為我們不一定了解這個滿載率是否正確、客戶到底下了哪些訂單、又有哪些沒有下。Mark和他的團隊與我們合作，做了令人難以置信的工作來理解這些；而現在把滿載率推到100%，讓我們得到Jim一直在談的額外業務——去敲客戶的門說：嘿，你既然有鐵路服務，為什麼還要用卡車？把貨交給我們，讓我們提供那份可靠性。這也意味著，在你要達成100%滿載率時，某個時間點你就必須讓一些車輛上線（cars online）。

So that's what we're pushing towards in our model. We're comfortable with that. We're keeping a good eye on what those cars look like as they move around. And if anything, the opportunity, as we look at the car fleet we have, now as we start picking up that velocity, we're going to get more loads out of those cars that are out there, which is more opportunity for us to be able to spin the customer cars. Some of the highest numbers that we have year-over-year are private cars.

所以這就是我們在模型中推進的方向。我們對此感到放心。我們也會密切關注這些車輛在系統中移動時的狀況。而且如果要說機會，當我們檢視現有車隊時，隨著我們開始提升速度（velocity），我們會讓外面的那些車輛跑出更多趟載運，這對我們而言是更多機會，也能讓我們更有效率地周轉客戶自備車（customer cars）。我們年對年增幅最高的一些數字，來自私有車（private cars）。

So that's an opportunity there for customers to spin their cars faster and give us 4 or 5 more loads a year as we get quicker. So look, it's opportunity, opportunity, opportunity as we move forward with the plan that we put in.

所以這對客戶而言是一個機會：讓他們的車輛更快周轉，當我們速度變快時，一年可以多出4到5趟載運。所以你看，隨著我們推進既定計畫，這就是機會、機會、機會。

Yes. And by doing all those things correctly in a coordinated fashion between operations and sales and marketing, that's what's driving this business from the highway onto the rail.

是的。而當營運與業務及行銷以協調一致的方式把這些事情都做對時，這正是把這門生意從公路轉到鐵路上的驅動力。

Your next question comes from the line of David Vernon from Bernstein.

下一個問題來自Bernstein的David Vernon。

So Jamie, I was wondering if you could kind of help us understand that rate of resource addition in relation to volume growth. I think you guys are laying out a picture that says somewhere in the mid-single digits on volume. And I'm not asking you to confirm that as a volume guide. I'm just trying to get a sense for if we're going to be at that level of volume growth, what level of resource do you need to add into the network from today's levels to kind of keep pace with that at the service level you want to provide?

所以Jamie，我想請你幫我們理解一下：資源增加的速度與運量成長之間的關係。我想你們描繪的情境是運量大概在中個位數成長。我不是要你確認這是運量指引。我只是想了解，如果運量成長會在那個水準，為了在你們希望提供的服務水準下跟上步伐，你們需要在現有水準的基礎上，往網路中增加多少資源？

Look, when we talk about hard assets with respect to locomotives, we're in a good spot. Are we going to need to use some more locomotives as some volume starts to come back? Yes. When you look at bulk business, definitely, those are pure train starts. When you look at our car fleet, I'm comfortable that as our dwell continues to come down as we move forward, we'll need less boxcars. But we're going to make sure that we hit that fulfillment rate of 100%, right? The 10% difference, when you really think about, 90% was a target a year-or-so ago, now it's 100% as we move forward with our customers, showing the reliability of being there with the car supply we say we're going to be. Yes, you're going to see a bit of an increase. But where we're at right now is a good spot. As we move faster, as I mentioned, we'll get that many more loads out of the cars that are out there, which is going to help that growth as we continue to move forward.

你看，當我們談到與機車相關的硬資產時，我們目前處於不錯的位置。隨著部分運量開始回升，我們是否需要再多用一些機車？是的。就散裝業務來看，確實，那些都是純粹的列車開行。就我們的車輛車隊而言，我有信心，隨著我們的停留時間（dwell）在未來持續下降，我們需要的棚車（boxcars）會更少。但我們會確保達到100%的履約率，對吧？真正想一想那10%的差距，一年左右前90%還是目標，而現在隨著我們與客戶往前推進，目標是100%，以展現我們能以我們所承諾的車輛供應可靠到位。是的，你會看到些許增加。但就我們目前所在的位置而言，是個不錯的狀態。如我提到的，隨著我們運行更快，我們能從現有車輛中多拉出更多載運量，這將在我們持續向前推進時，幫助那個成長。

And I think we've really touched on the people side of things. Frontloading is the right thing to do. It gives us that 4 to 6 months to do that hiring practice and deal with the attrition that we see out there and prepare us for what's going to happen towards the second half.

我想我們其實已經談到人力面的事情了。提前補足（frontloading）是正確的做法。這讓我們有4到6個月的時間來進行招募作業、處理我們看到的流失（attrition），並為下半年將發生的情況做好準備。

Yes, David, the hiring is really offsetting the attrition that we expect through the full year. But really front-end loading that so we can get ahead of it and react to any volume upside that could occur in the second half.

是的，David，這些招募基本上是在抵銷我們預期全年會發生的流失。但更重要的是把它前置，讓我們能超前部署，並對下半年可能出現的運量上行做出反應。

Yes. I'm just trying to make sense -- do we need to be at this 19% to -- can we -- could we accommodate a 5% volume growth with the current headcount level? Or does it need to be a little bit higher than that? And what's the proportion of which the headcount would need to be added back?

是的。我只是想釐清一下——我們是否需要維持在這個19%的——我們能不能——以目前的人力編制水準，承接5%的運量成長？還是需要比這個再高一些？以及需要補回的人力比例大概是多少？

Well, I think a lot of this, I think, is going to give us the ability to hit the hot pockets where we were low on crews right now and it's really redistributing -- Jamie, correct me if I'm wrong, redistributing a lot of the employees to where we were going to need and where we see the growth coming.

嗯，我想這裡面很大一部分，會讓我們有能力去補上目前車組人力不足的那些熱點區域（hot pockets），而且這其實是在重新分配——Jamie，如果我說錯請糾正我——把很多員工重新分配到我們將需要、以及我們看到成長將出現的地方。

Yes. It's based off of -- obviously, we look at our attrition rate and where it's at and where we expect those employees to attrit out. But this is working very close with the marketing team. This is very -- as Jim mentioned earlier, the closer that Mark and myself and our teams work together, we know and have an idea where this business growth is going to come from. Could it throw us a curveball? Sure, it could. But you want to -- as it stands right now, we're preparing in those areas that we need to, and we're going to make sure that we hire in those, to make sure we can capture that growth.

是的。這是基於——很明顯地，我們會看我們的流失率目前在哪裡，以及我們預期這些員工會在何處流失。但這也與行銷團隊密切合作。正如Jim先前提到的，Mark和我以及我們的團隊合作得越緊密，我們就越能知道並掌握這些業務成長會從哪裡來。會不會出現意外變數（curveball）？當然可能。但你會希望——以目前情況來看，我們正在需要的區域做準備，並且會確保在那些地方招募，以確保我們能抓住那個成長。

And look at cars online, really, when you look at year-over-year, the percentage is 12%. But really, we're down 4% full year versus prior full year. So we're not talking about a big percentage point here. And it's really important that we give the reliability of getting that boxcar to 100% fulfillment if we want those customers convert over.

再看一下線上車輛（cars online），其實若以年對年來看，比例是12%。但若以全年對比前一個全年，我們其實是下降4%。所以我們談的不是很大的百分點變化。而且如果我們希望那些客戶轉換過來，提供把棚車（boxcar）做到100%履約的可靠性非常重要。

Your next question comes from the line of John Chappell from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自Evercore ISI的John Chappell。

Thanks for confirming the view on coal improving from the 2020 trough levels. I wanted to get your views on how much of that is anticipation of the domestic market versus the export market? And as it relates to the latter, we're seeing shortages in certain regions of the world because of the bitter winter weather and some trade issues. Have you seen any uptick in your export coal opportunities given some of those issues?

感謝你確認煤炭業務正從2020年的谷底水準改善的看法。我想了解你們的看法：其中有多少是來自對國內市場的預期，相對於出口市場？另外就後者而言，我們看到因嚴寒冬季天氣以及一些貿易問題，全球某些地區出現短缺。在這些因素之下，你們是否看到出口煤的機會有任何上升？

Yes. I think when you look at our coal business, fourth quarter was -- showed a little bit of strength versus previous 3. So we're exiting the year at a little bit better position than what we saw, call it, the middle of the year here.

是的。我想如果你看我們的煤炭業務，第四季相較於前三季顯示出一些強度。因此我們在年底的狀態，比年中所看到的要好一些。

Going into next year, probably the strength that we anticipate will really be on the domestic side with a little bit of the utility stockpiles below normal levels. So we see some opportunity there. You see the same benchmark prices on the export side that we see. They stabilize, which is the good sign. They're still well below the levels that we saw prepandemic, whether that's an opportunity from here, we hope so. I think the risk/reward is probably a little bit more balanced than it has been in previous years or particularly coming into 2020.

展望明年，我們預期的強度可能主要會在國內端，因為公用事業的庫存（stockpiles）略低於正常水準。所以我們在那裡看到一些機會。出口端的基準價格（benchmark prices）你看到的跟我們看到的一樣。它們已經趨於穩定，這是個好跡象。但仍遠低於我們在疫情前看到的水準；至於從這裡開始是否會有機會，我們希望如此。我認為風險/報酬可能比過去幾年、尤其是進入2020年時，更加均衡一些。

So you're probably referencing the China, Australia, spat they have on the coal side right now, not helping the global prices right now. And so not really helping us. So hopefully, that gets resolved, and we'll see some maybe net price upside here going forward, but that's a very difficult market for us to predict.

所以你大概是在指目前中國與澳洲在煤炭方面的摩擦，這對當前全球價格沒有幫助。因此也沒有真正幫到我們。希望那能夠解決，未來我們或許能看到一些淨價格上行，但那對我們而言是一個非常難以預測的市場。

On the thermal side, if you look at our business today in the fourth quarter, really, that export business is 75% net and 25% thermal. If you get some of these polar vortex impacting some of the global markets and get a cold wave here, maybe that's an opportunity because we're delivering very little to Europe and other areas today.

在動力煤（thermal）方面，如果你看我們今天第四季的業務，出口業務實際上是75%冶金煤（met）與25%動力煤。如果一些極地渦旋（polar vortex）影響到部分全球市場，並帶來一波寒流，也許那就是機會，因為我們目前對歐洲及其他地區的供應量非常少。

So we're going into the year cautiously optimistic. I don't see a huge upside case, but see a little bit of stability and strength off of the fourth quarter.

所以我們以審慎樂觀的態度進入新的一年。我不認為有很大的上行情境，但會看到一些穩定性，以及在第四季基礎上的些許強度。

Your next question comes from the line of Jordan Alliger from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的Jordan Alliger。

Just one quick question. To the extent you have it, do you have the -- your economic thoughts that sort of underpin the commentary you made on volume, in other words, volume's greater than GDP, merchandise greater than industrial production. What's your economic guys saying around those 2 measures?

只有一個很快的問題。在你們有資料的範圍內，你們是否有一些經濟面的看法來支撐你剛才對運量所做的評論？換句話說，運量高於GDP、一般貨運（merchandise）高於工業生產。你們的經濟團隊對這兩個指標的看法是什麼？

Well, as I said, there's -- there are a lot of different views on what the underlying number is going to be. And so right now, we're not -- we're trying to find what is the most reliable number for us to look at. And also at the same time, as you know, everybody is adjusting their numbers and to a large degree, some of them, they're adjusting them down. So our guys don't necessarily have -- our guys have a -- I'm sure they have -- they have an independent view, but it's not something that we're going to put out there as what we think right now is something that we're willing to bet the farm on, so to speak, and how we're going to run the company.

嗯，正如我所說，對於底層數字會是多少，存在很多不同的觀點。所以目前我們還在——我們正試著找出對我們而言最可靠、可用來觀察的數字。同時，如你所知，每個人都在調整他們的數字，而且在很大程度上，其中一些是在往下調。所以我們的人不一定有——我們的人當然有——我相信他們有獨立的看法，但這不是我們現在要對外提出、作為我們願意「押上全部身家」（bet the farm）那樣的判斷，並據此來經營公司的一個東西。

We're trying to look at all the different viewpoints and as we move further into 2021, hopefully, things get clearer and clearer for us as we progress.

我們正試著從各種不同觀點來看待所有事情；隨著我們進一步進入2021年，希望在推進過程中，情況能對我們而言愈來愈清楚。

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Seidl from Cowen.

下一個問題來自Cowen的Jason Seidl。

My best to Mark, hope he feels better. I wanted to talk a little bit about your trip plan compliance. It looks like things are going in the right direction on the carload side. Talk a little bit about what you guys are doing there to improve that. And then is there really anything that the railroad can do right now to materially move the intermodal trip plan compliance? Or is this all just sort of congestion needs to work through some of the ports and some of the inland facilities?

向Mark致上我最好的祝福，希望他早日好轉。我想稍微談一下你們的行程計畫遵循率（trip plan compliance）。看起來在整車（carload）方面，事情正朝著正確方向發展。請談談你們在那裡做了哪些事情來改善。另外，就目前而言，鐵路公司是否真的能做些什麼來實質提升聯運（intermodal）的行程計畫遵循率？還是說這一切只是壅塞需要在一些港口與部分內陸設施逐步消化？

Let me start with the look at the trip plans on the intermodal side. Look, we have -- we considered probably on both ends, the most stringent trip plans out there with respect to always making sure that we measure both loads and empties, whether that's intermodal or on the merchandise side. And I'd like to say our times are probably some of the most stringent times out there where, on the intermodal side, you're arriving to the minute.

我先從聯運端的行程計畫來談。你看，我們認為在兩端，我們的行程計畫可能是業界最嚴格的之一，尤其是在確保我們同時衡量重車與空車方面，無論是聯運或是一般貨運（merchandise）端都是如此。而且我想說，我們的時間標準可能也是業界最嚴格的之一；在聯運端，你們是精確到分鐘的到達。

Over the past couple of months or a month or so, UPS peak was amazing. It was a big, big quarter. I don't think that's a surprise. And as we felt some pressure at different ports in different areas, we got the opportunity to move even more UPS traffic than we expected to. So some of our international traffic may have -- that isn't as time-sensitive, may have taken a little longer to get off the port than we normally would to make sure we move the time-sensitive traffic.

過去幾個月或大約一個月左右，UPS旺季表現非常驚人。那是一個非常、非常大的季度。我想這並不令人意外。當我們在不同港口、不同地區感受到一些壓力時，我們也有機會比預期運送更多UPS貨量。因此，我們部分國際貨量——那些時間敏感度沒那麼高的——可能在港口卸離的時間比平常稍長一些，以確保我們能先運送時間敏感的貨量。

But going forward, I fully look at our numbers with respect to the intermodal side, 90% above is where we should be getting. I mean we're shooting for above 95% on that, and I'm confident that our team is there. And we're starting to see some of those numbers hit already as we've moved past some of that UPS peak.

但展望未來，就聯運端而言，我完全認為我們的數字應該要在90%以上。我的意思是，我們的目標是要超過95%，而我對我們的團隊有信心能做到。而且隨著我們度過部分UPS旺季後，我們已經開始看到其中一些數字達標。

On the carload side, again, you missed by 2 hours on the carload side, that's it. It's failed, whether it's a load or an empty, and our connections are tight from terminal to terminal. And if you have some of those COVID pockets, where 40% of your terminal's off, and it takes you an extra 6 or 8 or 10 hours to get a car through a terminal, that's a failure. We're not willing to change our standards and our metrics with respect to where they sit to getting to that last mile. So we're going to work through this, which we have. We've seen some improvement on the numbers. Not as quick as I would like to see some of those continue to move forward, but we do have the best metrics with respect to those who look at trip plans out there today.

在整車端也是一樣，你只要在整車端晚了2小時，就這樣。不管是重車或空車，都算失敗，而且我們從場站到場站的銜接非常緊密。如果你遇到一些COVID的局部影響，例如某個場站有40%的人力缺勤，導致一輛車通過場站要多花6、8或10小時，那就是一次失敗。我們不願意改變我們的標準與指標在目前的位置，直到把最後一哩路做到位。所以我們會把這些問題消化掉，而我們也確實正在這麼做。我們已經看到數字有所改善。雖然沒有我希望的那麼快持續往前推進，但就目前市場上看行程計畫的指標而言，我們確實擁有最好的衡量標準。

So we're confident that moving forward, we're going to see that number get up into the 80s. And our target will continue to be to push forward with that, which will allow that reliability for Mark and his team to go out there and continue to sell this product that we've built.

因此我們有信心，往前看，我們會看到那個數字提升到80%區間。而我們的目標也會持續推進，這將讓Mark和他的團隊能夠依靠這樣的可靠性，繼續在外面銷售我們打造的這個產品。

That's great color, and I'm glad to hear things are moving in the right direction on the numbers, and everyone be safe out there.

這些補充非常有幫助，也很高興聽到數字正朝正確方向發展，大家在外面都要注意安全。

Your next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自Morgan Stanley的Ravi Shanker。

So just to kind of wind up here, the -- am I expecting a bit of a tone shift on the OR here? I think over time, you guys have kind of clearly mentioned that you are going to be pursuing growth to a great extent going forward. But kind of as we think of that 3- to 5-year or algorithm going forward, again, you're starting to sound a little bit more like the Canadian rails who are saying, hey, we're going to -- OR is not the only thing as a standalone, we're going to be looking at growth and growing EBIT dollars here.

所以大致做個收尾——關於營運比率（OR），我是否應該預期你們的語氣會有些轉變？我想隨著時間推進，你們一直相當清楚地提到，未來你們將在很大程度上追求成長。但當我們思考未來3到5年的框架或演算法時，你們聽起來又更像加拿大的鐵路公司，他們會說：嘿，OR不是唯一的單一指標，我們會看成長、並提升EBIT金額。

So are you targeting sticking to a high-50s OR, but pushing the top line much higher from here?

所以你們的目標是把OR維持在高50%區間，但同時把營收端（top line）從這裡大幅推高嗎？

Well, we -- again, we've never said that we are singularly focused on one thing only, and that's trying to get the operating ratio down. And just in simplistic terms, if you want at a 50% operating ratio, we'd have a 50% operating ratio. We do it like quickly. I'm not sure what would be left to the company in the process. But -- so it's always a balance between trying to do things as efficiently as you possibly can. While you're delivering a good product to the customer so you can grow the business. And that's always from day 1, since I walked in the door here being the plan.

嗯，我們——再說一次，我們從來沒有說過我們只專注於單一一件事，也就是只想把營運比率降下來。用最簡單的說法，如果我們想要50%的營運比率，我們就會有50%的營運比率。我們可以很快做到。但我不確定在這個過程中，公司還會剩下什麼。所以——這一直是在盡可能有效率地做事，與此同時，提供客戶一個好的產品，讓你能夠成長業務之間的平衡。這樣你才能擴大業務。而這從第一天起——自從我走進這扇門——就是計畫。

And it just takes a while to get the railroad to run right because you can start to be able to generate some new business. So the algorithm going forward is the algorithm that we've had in place for the last 3, going on 4 years, focused on delivering a really high quality, good, reliable product to the customer, which allows you to get more business.

而且要讓鐵路運行到位需要一些時間，因為你必須先把系統跑順，才能開始創造一些新業務。所以未來的演算法，就是我們過去3年、即將進入第4年一直在執行的那套：專注於向客戶交付非常高品質、良好且可靠的產品，這能讓你獲得更多業務。

And if you do that, you drive a whole bunch of unnecessary costs out of the company and you increase efficiency. When you do that, you make a lot of money and you make a lot of money, shareholders are happy. That's our simple business plan.

如果你做到這點，你就能把公司裡一大堆不必要的成本剔除，並提升效率。當你做到這些，你就能賺很多錢；你賺很多錢，股東就會滿意。這就是我們簡單的商業計畫。

Great. And maybe as a quick follow-up. We have a new administration this morning. Are there any kind of 2 or 3 things you're looking for from DC, something you're watching out for either as a tailwind or a headwind?

了解。再快速追問一下。今天早上我們有了新的政府。你們是否有兩三件事是希望華府（DC）能做、或你們正在關注的，可能是順風或逆風？

Government stability, is that too much to ask for. I would be -- that would be a good start. So let's give them a couple of weeks to figure out whether or not we're going to have that, and then we can start figuring out if there's any significant real change in anybody's agenda. We're used to working with, not only on the federal level, but we operate in 22, 23 states there.

政府穩定性，這個要求會不會太多？我會——那會是一個好的開始。所以先給他們幾週時間，看看我們是否能有這樣的穩定性，然後我們再來判斷是否會在任何人的議程上出現重大的實質變化。我們習慣於合作，不僅是在聯邦層級，而且我們在那裡營運於22、23個州。

Some of them are led by a Democratic governor and some are led by a Republican governor. So we're used to dealing with all kinds of philosophies and viewpoints as it relates to government relations with business. And so it's not new to us. We'll just figure out what to do and how to interact, and then we'll get along fine with everybody.

其中一些州由民主黨州長領導，另一些則由共和黨州長領導。因此，就政府與企業關係而言，我們習慣於面對各種不同的理念與觀點。所以這對我們來說並不新鮮。我們會弄清楚該怎麼做、如何互動，然後我們會和大家都相處得很好。

Your next question comes from the line of Walter Spracklin from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自RBC Capital Markets的Walter Spracklin。

Just to follow up on that question with regards to Washington. And looking back, a swing in favor -- swing of power in favor of the Democrats has not been a good thing from a railroad regulatory standpoint. And now that your ORs are trending where they are. Jim, do you see any risk that regulators start to put close attention on the returns you're getting now and introduce new risk of changes or more leniency or favoritism towards the customer here?

我想就關於華盛頓的那個問題再追問一下。回顧過去，從鐵路監管的角度來看，權力擺盪轉向民主黨並不是一件好事。而且現在你們的 OR 正朝著目前的趨勢走。Jim，你是否看到任何風險：監管機構開始密切關注你們目前取得的報酬率，並引入新的風險，例如規則變更，或對客戶端更寬鬆或更偏袒？

No, not necessarily. I mean, again, there's a there's a mix -- there's a remix. There's a mix on the STB that goes back and forth in terms of whether it's -- now, I guess it's 3, 2 versus what it was before, maybe 2, 3 versus maybe what it was at one point in time. So again, this is something we're always dealing with. We're not unique in the sense that we're a regulated -- or we have a regulator.

不，不一定。我的意思是，再說一次，這裡有一個混合——有一個重新組合。STB 的組成在「是——」這件事上來回變動；現在我想是 3 比 2，而之前可能是 2 比 3，或在某個時間點曾經是那樣。所以再說一次，這是我們一直在面對的事情。我們並不特殊，因為我們是受監管的——或者說我們有監管機構。

And so it's not like every airline, railroad, telephone company, TV company, you name it, anybody that's got a regulator, all of a sudden is worried about the end of days. We just adapt, and we figure out what it is their concerns are. And we work appropriately with them. And we've been doing this for a couple of hundred years and doing it successfully.

所以並不是說每一家航空公司、鐵路、電話公司、電視公司，隨便你說，任何有監管機構的公司，突然就開始擔心世界末日。我們只是調整適應，並弄清楚他們的關切是什麼。然後我們以適當方式與他們合作。我們已經這樣做了幾百年，而且做得很成功。

Okay. Understood. And if I could, just a clarification question for Kevin here. On the question of yield, I know you answered that kind of on a segmented basis. If I lump it all together, am I right in interpreting what you said, that yield is going to be negative in the early part of the year and possibly turn positive in the back half? Is that -- is that the right way to look at yield? Because it's been so negative this year, it will obviously have a pretty big impact, depending on which direction we go on the magnitude of the yield here.

好的。了解。如果可以的話，我想請 Kevin 再澄清一個問題。關於收益率（yield）這個問題，我知道你是以分項的方式回答。如果我把它全部合在一起，我是否可以正確解讀你剛才的意思：年初前段收益率會是負的，而下半年可能轉為正？這——這樣看收益率是對的嗎？因為今年收益率一直非常負，顯然會對收益率的幅度造成很大影響，取決於我們接下來走向哪個方向。

Yes. Like I said, the revenue -- or the fuel surcharge will be a headwind in the first quarter. That will weigh on the yield similarly to what we saw in the fourth quarter here. That will moderate in the second quarter and then I think you'll see some improvement. I always have to caveat it with mix matters, right? And depending on what markets, hopefully, the strong markets like our chemical business and others, continue to have some upside, and that will obviously be a huge impact to our yield performance.

是的。如我所說，營收——或者說燃油附加費——在第一季會是逆風。這會像我們在第四季看到的那樣，對收益率造成壓力。第二季這個影響會趨於緩和，然後我認為你會看到一些改善。我總是要加上一句但書：組合很重要，對吧？而且取決於哪些市場——希望像我們的化學品業務等強勢市場能持續有上行空間——那將會對我們的收益率表現產生很大的影響。

If the coal export market strengthens, as you know, our contracts are structured to participate in the commodity prices, if they strengthen. So that would be also an opportunity for us into the back half of the year.

如果煤炭出口市場走強，如你所知，我們的合約結構是能在商品價格走強時參與其中的。所以這也會是我們在下半年的一個機會。

Offsetting that, I think we are still very bullish on, as you heard us talk about on the intermodal side, it's a really good business for us. It happens to have a lower RPU, but we make good money there. And so we would -- Jamie is ready to handle more growth there, and we have a great team going after more opportunities. So although it's equal, the -- where we see it today, which will change probably tomorrow, yes, a little bit of headwind in the first quarter, probably strengthening into the back half of the year.

與此相抵，我認為我們仍然非常看多——正如你們聽到我們在聯運（intermodal）方面所談到的——這對我們來說是一門非常好的生意。它的每單位收入（RPU）確實較低，但我們在那裡賺得到不錯的錢。因此我們會——Jamie 已準備好在那裡承接更多成長，我們也有一支很棒的團隊在爭取更多機會。所以雖然目前看起來大致相當——當然這可能明天就會變——是的，第一季會有一點逆風，下半年可能會轉強。

Your next question comes from the line of David Ross from Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 David Ross。

Kevin, I wanted to follow up on your last comment there about intermodal, specifically related to intermodal pricing. Is the expectation for better than normal intermodal pricing, given what's going on in the truckload market? Or is it going to be more of a cost recovery, low single-digit-type yield improvement story?

Kevin，我想就你剛才關於聯運的最後一段評論再追問一下，特別是與聯運定價相關。考量到卡車整車（truckload）市場的情況，是否預期聯運定價會優於正常水準？還是說這會更像是一個成本回收、低個位數類型的收益率改善故事？

Well, we don't see real-time -- some of our partners see in terms of price. We'll generally see a lag there. There's also inflation adjusters that occur, they're on a lag basis as well. So again, it kind of fits with my commentary around probably second half, hopefully showing some improvement over the first half. Unfortunately, in strong markets, we don't get to reprice our entire book of business. Today, these things happen over time. We'll need the markets to remain strong and supportive. And so that yes, I think we're somewhat optimistic, but there's a lot of -- time will tell, what happens going forward. If the economy can strengthen in the back half of the year, that certainly will help the discussions our sales and marketing team are having. So they're out there selling the business hard right now.

嗯，我們看不到即時——有些合作夥伴能看到的那種即時價格資訊。我們通常會有一些滯後。另外也有通膨調整機制，它們同樣是以滯後方式發生。所以再說一次，這也符合我先前的評論：下半年可能會比上半年呈現一些改善。不幸的是，在強勢市場中，我們也無法把整本業務一次性重新定價。這些事情是隨時間逐步發生的。我們需要市場維持強勁並提供支撐。因此，是的，我想我們算是有些樂觀，但仍有很多——未來會怎樣，時間會告訴我們。如果下半年經濟能夠轉強，這肯定會有助於我們銷售與行銷團隊正在進行的討論。所以他們現在正在外面非常積極地推銷業務。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session and concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may now disconnect.

各位女士、先生，我們的問答環節到此結束，也結束今天的電話會議。感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。您現在可以掛線。