CSX Corporation (CSX) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CSX Corporation Q3 2020 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生，下午好，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2020 年第三季（Q3）財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。（接線員指示）

For opening remarks and introduction, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Bill Slater, Head of Investor Relations for CSX Corporation.

接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話交給 CSX Corporation 投資人關係主管 Bill Slater 先生。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me on today's call are Jim Foote, President and Chief Executive Officer; Mark Wallace, Executive Vice President of Sales and Marketing; Kevin Boone, Chief Financial Officer; and Jamie Boychuk, Executive Vice President of Operations.

謝謝，各位下午好。今天與我一同參與電話會議的有：總裁暨執行長 Jim Foote；銷售與行銷執行副總裁 Mark Wallace；財務長 Kevin Boone；以及營運執行副總裁 Jamie Boychuk。

On Slide 2 is our forward looking disclosure, followed by our non-GAAP disclosure on Slide 3.

第 2 張投影片為我們的前瞻性聲明揭露，接著第 3 張投影片為我們的非 GAAP 揭露。

With that, it is my pleasure to introduce President and Chief Executive Officer, Jim Foote.

接下來，我很高興介紹總裁暨執行長 Jim Foote。

Thanks, Bill, and thank you to everyone for joining today's call. The last 6 months have truly been surreal. On last quarter's call, we discussed the largest and most rapid sequential volume declines in CSX's history. Now just 3 months later, record sequential increases. Think about that. Volume declines and increases twice as steep as the largest swings we experienced in the great recession in a span of just a few months. Managing this historic volatility is incredibly difficult, and I am extremely proud of the dedicated men and women of CSX as they continue to deliver against these challenges. Their hard work allowed us to efficiently absorb the record rebound in volumes while maintaining high level of service. This level of execution requires a commitment and coordination of the entire organization. Throughout this period, it has been inspiring to see CSX employees band together to reassess every aspect of the business and figure out where we can be even better. We are already seeing the benefits of these efforts in this quarter's results and will continue to do so in the years to come.

謝謝你，Bill，也感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。過去 6 個月確實如同置身夢境一般。上一季的電話會議中，我們談到 CSX 歷史上最大且最快的連續運量下滑。而現在僅僅 3 個月後，卻出現創紀錄的連續運量增加。想想看：在短短幾個月內，運量下滑與回升的幅度，都是我們在金融海嘯期間所經歷最大波動的兩倍。管理這種歷史性的劇烈波動極其困難，我也為 CSX 盡心投入的男女同仁感到無比自豪，他們持續迎戰並交出成果。他們的努力讓我們在維持高水準服務的同時，能有效吸收運量的創紀錄反彈。這樣的執行力需要整個組織的承諾與協同。在這段期間，看到 CSX 員工團結一致，重新檢視業務的每個面向並找出我們還能更好的地方，令人振奮。我們已在本季成果中看到這些努力帶來的效益，未來數年也將持續受惠。

Now let's go to Slide 5 for an overview of our financial results. Second quarter EPS declined 11% to $0.96, and our operating ratio of 56.9% remained in line with last year's record results. Maintaining this record efficiency level despite the combined headwinds from the pandemic, significantly weaker coal markets and approximately 250 basis points of unfavorable margin impact from lower real estate gains is truly impressive.

現在請看第 5 張投影片，概述我們的財務結果。第二季每股盈餘（EPS）下滑 11% 至 0.96 美元，營業比率為 56.9%，與去年創紀錄的結果大致一致。在疫情、煤炭市場顯著疲弱，以及因不動產處分利益較低而帶來約 250 個基點的不利毛利率影響等多重逆風下，仍能維持這樣的紀錄效率水準，確實令人印象深刻。

Moving to Slide 6. Third quarter revenue declined 11% on 3% lower volumes due primarily to reduced industrial activity as a result of the pandemic. Merchandise revenue declined 7% on 5% lower volumes, with all end markets experiencing volume declines. Intermodal revenue was flat on 7% higher volumes, as growth in both domestic and international volumes from inventory restocking and a tightening truck market were mostly offset by declines in fuel surcharge revenues. Coal revenue decreased 36% on 27% lower volumes as the coal business continues to be negatively impacted by reduced electrical demand, lower industrial production and lower global benchmark prices. Other revenue was down 12% due to lower affiliate revenue and declines in demurrage charges.

接著看第 6 張投影片。第三季營收下滑 11%，運量下降 3%，主要因疫情導致工業活動減少。一般貨運（Merchandise）營收下滑 7%，運量下降 5%，所有終端市場的運量皆下滑。聯運（Intermodal）營收持平，運量增加 7%，因庫存回補與卡車市場趨緊帶動國內與國際運量成長，但多數被燃油附加費收入下滑所抵銷。煤炭營收下降 36%，運量下降 27%，煤炭業務持續受到用電需求降低、工業生產下滑以及全球基準價格走低的負面影響。其他營收下滑 12%，原因為關係企業收入較低以及滯期費（demurrage）收費下降。

Turning to Slide 7. We cannot achieve any of our long-term goals without first operating safely. In the third quarter, we realized new quarterly record lows for both train accidents and personal injuries as well as a new quarterly record for low personal injury frequency rate. While CSX continues to lead the industry in safety metrics, we can never be satisfied if even one of our employees get injured while at work. The team is working to be even better by identifying and eliminating unsafe practices and conditions across the railroad. We continue to increase employee training and engagement with the goal of improving critical rules compliance.

請看第 7 張投影片。若無法先安全營運，我們就無法達成任何長期目標。第三季，我們在列車事故與人身傷害兩項指標上都創下新的單季最低紀錄，且人身傷害頻率率也創下新的單季最低紀錄。雖然 CSX 在安全指標上持續領先同業，但只要仍有任何一位員工在工作中受傷，我們就絕不能自滿。團隊正透過辨識並消除鐵路系統中的不安全作業與環境條件，努力做得更好。我們也持續加強員工訓練與參與度，目標是提升關鍵規章的遵循。

Turning to Slide 8. Our safety focus is part of CSX's broader commitment to ESG in driving positive social impact. Rail is the most sustainable mode of land transportation, and we are working hard every day to further these inherent benefits and ensure CSX is the most sustainable railroad. We've made great strides in reducing our emissions and fuel consumption, including setting another fuel efficiency record this quarter by consuming only 0.93 gallons of fuel per 1,000 gross ton miles. And we have also set ambitious new long-term emissions targets to continue this positive momentum. Earlier this year, we were the first U.S. Class I railroad to have an emissions reduction target approved by the science-based targets initiative, setting the goal of reducing emissions intensity 37% by 2030.

接著看第 8 張投影片。我們對安全的重視，是 CSX 更廣泛 ESG 承諾的一部分，旨在推動正向的社會影響。鐵路是最具永續性的陸上運輸方式，我們每天都努力強化這些先天優勢，並確保 CSX 成為最永續的鐵路公司。我們在降低排放與燃油消耗方面取得重大進展，包括本季再度創下燃油效率紀錄：每 1,000 總噸英里僅消耗 0.93 加侖燃油。我們也設定了更具企圖心的長期減排目標，以延續這股正向動能。今年稍早，我們成為第一家減排目標獲「科學基礎減量目標倡議」（science-based targets initiative）核准的美國一級鐵路公司，目標是在 2030 年前將排放強度降低 37%。

In addition to improving our emissions profile, we are focused on helping our customers meet their own emissions reduction targets. Not only does every shipment on CSX consume 20% less fuel than it did a few years ago, but our best-in-class service product uniquely positions CSX to help customers further reduce emissions by converting freight off to highway and on to CSX without sacrificing the reliability of their supply chain. We are honored by the recognition received to date, including recently being named one of the Top 20 Most Sustainably Managed Companies in the World by The Wall Street Journal, but continuously push ourselves to be even better for our employees, our customers and the communities we serve.

除了改善自身的排放表現外，我們也著重協助客戶達成其減排目標。CSX 的每一批貨運不僅比幾年前少耗 20% 的燃油，我們同級最佳的服務產品也讓 CSX 能在不犧牲供應鏈可靠性的前提下，協助客戶將貨運從公路轉移至 CSX，進一步降低排放。我們很榮幸迄今獲得各項肯定，包括近期《華爾街日報》將我們評選為「全球最具永續管理的 20 大企業」之一；但我們仍會持續自我鞭策，為員工、客戶以及我們服務的社區做得更好。

On Slide 9, let's review our operating performance. Despite the challenges presented by record volume increases, the railroad continues to run at a high level. Planned changes enacted in the second quarter drove strong productivity gains across the system. We further balanced the network and set a new quarterly record of 93 distributed power trains per day, averaging over 100 distributed power trains per day for the last 2 months of the quarter. Yard productivity also improved by blocking cars further upstream, reducing touches in the yards and finding new ways to be more -- to more dynamically share work between yard and local trains.

在第 9 張投影片，我們回顧營運表現。儘管面臨運量創紀錄增加所帶來的挑戰，鐵路系統仍維持高水準運行。第二季所推動的計畫性調整，帶動全系統強勁的生產力提升。我們進一步平衡網路，並創下單季每日 93 列分散式動力（distributed power）列車的新紀錄；在本季最後 2 個月，每日平均更超過 100 列分散式動力列車。編組場（yard）生產力也透過更上游的車輛分組（blocking）、降低場內搬動次數，以及找出新方法更——更動態地在編組場列車與地方列車之間分配工作而有所改善。

Slide 10, these productivity gains are further highlighted, which compares current volume and asset levels against the pre-COVID levels from March 1. In total, volumes ended the third quarter above the pre-COVID levels, while asset counts were lower across the board. Looking at train starts, we are currently handling 3% more volumes with 11% fewer starts than we required on March. On a year-over-year basis, train starts were down 15% in the third quarter compared to a 3% lower volume. Additionally, since the May trough, we have grown volume twice as fast as we have increased the train starts required to serve this growth. No matter how you frame these results, the strong operating leverage highlights the durable nature of the changes made last quarter and is a testament to the team's success in taking advantage of the challenging volume environment to pull forward lasting efficiencies. I'm sure you might have some questions for Jamie on this later in the call.

第 10 張投影片進一步凸顯這些生產力提升，將目前的運量與資產水準與 3 月 1 日 COVID 前水準進行比較。整體而言，第三季末運量已高於 COVID 前水準，而各項資產數量則全面較低。以列車開行數（train starts）來看，目前我們以比 3 月少 11% 的開行數，處理多 3% 的運量。以年對年來看，第三季列車開行數下降 15%，而運量僅下降 3%。此外，自 5 月低點以來，我們的運量成長速度是為服務該成長所需增加列車開行數的兩倍。無論從哪個角度看，強勁的營運槓桿都凸顯了上季所做變革的持久性，也證明團隊成功把握艱困的運量環境，提前實現可長期維持的效率提升。我相信稍後在電話會議中，各位可能會就此向 Jamie 提問。

Let's turn to Slide 11 and our hourly trip plan performance. Carload trip plan performance of 73% and intermodal of 74% slightly trailed previous quarters due primarily to the timing lag at the beginning of the quarter when we began to staff up to handle the surge in volumes. Trip plan performance improved throughout the quarter, and we exited the third quarter near 80% trip plan performance level for carload and 90% level for intermodal.

接著看第 11 張投影片與我們的每小時行程計畫（hourly trip plan）表現。整車（carload）行程計畫達成率為 73%，聯運為 74%，較前幾季略為落後，主要因本季初期為因應運量激增而開始增補人力時存在時間落差。行程計畫表現於本季逐步改善，我們在第三季末時，整車接近 80% 的行程計畫達成率，聯運則接近 90%。

I'll now hand it over to Kevin to review the financial results.

接下來我把時間交給 Kevin，請他回顧財務結果。

Thank you, Jim, and good afternoon, everyone. What a year it has been so far. Just 3 months ago, we were reviewing second quarter results, where we experienced record declines in customer business activity. We rapidly adapted and focused on driving efficiencies and structural changes that would serve us well as volumes returned. As you can see from our third quarter results, CSX was able to deliver, generating very strong operating leverage on a sequential volume increase of over 20%. As we sit here today, we are positioned for growth with a strong balance sheet and free cash flow profile. We also made the strategic decision to continue to invest in our infrastructure at levels exceeding plan as we leverage the efficiencies and took advantage of slow business activity. This will position us well to absorb future volume as growth returns.

謝謝你，Jim，各位下午好。今年到目前為止真是不同凡響。就在 3 個月前，我們還在檢視第二季結果，當時客戶業務活動出現創紀錄下滑。我們迅速調整，並專注於推動效率提升與結構性變革，以便在運量回升時發揮效益。從第三季結果可見，CSX 成功交出成績，在連續運量增加超過 20% 的情況下，創造了非常強勁的營運槓桿。以今天的狀況來看，我們憑藉強健的資產負債表與自由現金流輪廓，已具備成長定位。我們也做出策略性決策：在運用效率提升並把握業務活動放緩之際，持續以高於原計畫的水準投資基礎建設。這將使我們在成長回歸、未來運量增加時，能更從容地吸收。

As you can see on the income statement, revenue was down 11% in the quarter as volume growth at intermodal was offset by economic headwinds in merchandise, combined with weak coal demand. While merchandising coal markets remain challenged, revenues improved sequentially each month through the quarter. Partially offsetting the ongoing revenue headwinds, total expense was down 11% on a 3% decline in volume. Walking down the expense line items, labor and fringe was 10% lower, reflecting significant efficiency improvements and lower volume-related costs. As Jim highlighted, we took the opportunity during this pandemic to make structural changes to the train plan. As a result, crew starts were down 15% year-over-year compared to a 3% decline in volume. These improvements were made across the line of road, yard and local train plans.

如損益表所示，本季營收下滑 11%，因聯運運量成長被一般貨運的經濟逆風與疲弱的煤炭需求所抵銷。雖然一般貨運與煤炭市場仍具挑戰，但本季各月營收皆呈現連續改善。部分抵銷持續的營收逆風因素，總費用在運量下降 3% 的情況下下滑 11%。進一步拆解費用項目，人事與附帶福利成本下降 10%，反映顯著的效率改善與較低的運量相關成本。如 Jim 所強調，我們在疫情期間把握機會對列車運行計畫進行結構性調整。因此，與運量年對年下降 3% 相比，乘務開工（crew starts）年對年下降 15%。這些改善涵蓋幹線（line of road）、編組場（yard）與地方列車（local）運行計畫。

Year crew starts results in fewer active trains. The active locomotive count was down 14% year-over-year in the quarter. The smaller fleet, combined with fewer cars online and fewer -- and freight car repair efficiencies, helped drive a 19% reduction in the mechanical workforce. You'll recall the overtime was a key cost lever for us in the second quarter. As volumes recover, we can flex back up using overtime where it makes sense without adding headcount. Even with a small increase in overtime expense versus second quarter, we still reduced overtime year-over-year across all operating departments by a total of 15%.

年度車組開行次數下降，導致在役列車減少。本季在役機車數量較去年同期下降14%。較小的車隊規模，加上線上車輛較少，以及貨車維修效率提升，推動機務人力縮減19%。各位還記得，加班在第二季是我們重要的成本槓桿。隨著運量回升，我們可以在合理之處透過加班彈性拉升，而無需增加編制。即使相較第二季加班費用小幅增加，我們仍在所有營運部門將加班較去年同期合計降低15%。

We were also able to maintain the significant reductions made in the second quarter to our engineering contract labor expense in our intermodal terminal workforce even as volumes increased sequentially. You'll note the average headcount was roughly flat versus the second quarter as the increase in the T&E count was offset by the impact of our management restructuring as well as the cycling of the emergency reserve boards from last quarter.

即使運量按季增加，我們也得以維持第二季在工程合約勞務費用與我們聯運（intermodal）場站人力方面所達成的顯著降幅。你會注意到，平均人數相較第二季大致持平，因為T&E人數的增加被管理層重整的影響，以及上一季緊急備援班表（emergency reserve boards）的迴轉效應所抵銷。

MS&O expense decreased 7% in the third quarter despite cycling some significant prior year impacts that nets of $40 million in headwinds. These include $65 million in real estate gains as well as nonrailroad asset impairment. Adjusting for these impacts, MS&O would be down 15%. With fewer active locomotives,and ongoing freight car repair efficiencies, locomotive support costs were down 24% and card material expense was 36% lower in the quarter. In addition, as volumes grow, we are absorbing it and driving efficiencies at our intermodal terminals with cost per container down over 25% year-over-year. We are focused on reducing costs across all areas, including optimization of utility contracts to reflect current consumption levels and increase use of efficient lighting, minimizing the use of external and contracted labor where possible and leveraging technology to reduce redundancies. These and other initiatives will continue to help control costs as volume returns.

第三季MS&O費用下降7%，儘管本季需承受若干去年同期的重大影響，合計形成4,000萬美元的不利因素。這些包括6,500萬美元的不動產處分收益，以及非鐵路資產減損。若排除上述影響，MS&O將下降15%。隨著在役機車減少及貨車維修效率持續提升，機車支援成本下降24%，而車輛材料費用在本季降低36%。此外，隨著運量成長，我們在聯運場站吸收增量並推動效率提升，使每個貨櫃的成本較去年同期下降逾25%。我們專注於各領域降本，包括優化公用事業合約以反映目前用量並增加高效照明的使用、在可行情況下將外部與承包勞務使用降至最低，以及運用科技降低重複作業。這些及其他措施將在運量回升時持續協助控制成本。

Real estate gains were minimal in the third quarter, and we continue to expect minimal sales activity in the fourth quarter. Looking beyond 2020, we continue to manage a pipeline of future properties that we will monetize when conditions are favorable. As I have mentioned before, I'm also excited about additional opportunities to leverage our real estate and generate recurring revenue streams.

第三季不動產處分收益很少，我們仍預期第四季的出售活動也將維持在低檔。展望2020年之後，我們持續管理未來可處分資產的管線，並在條件有利時將其變現。如我先前提到的，我也對進一步善用我們的不動產並創造經常性收入來源的額外機會感到振奮。

Fuel expense was $104 million favorable, a 47% improvement year-over-year, driven by a 36% decrease in the per gallon price, lower volume, the cycling of prior year net expense related to nonrecurring state fuel tax matters and record fuel efficiency. Ongoing fuel efficiency gains are enabled by a relentless focus on utilization of distributed power and energy management software, combined with train handling rules compliance.

燃料費用有利1.04億美元，較去年同期改善47%，主要受每加侖價格下降36%、運量較低、去年與一次性州燃油稅事項相關的淨費用迴轉，以及創紀錄的燃油效率所帶動。持續的燃油效率提升，來自我們對分散式動力（distributed power）與能源管理軟體使用的持續專注，並結合列車操控規則的遵循。

Looking at other expenses. Depreciation increased $10 million or 3% in the quarter. Equipment rents expense increased $3 million or 4% due to higher intermodal related equipment costs and inflation.

再看其他費用。折舊在本季增加1,000萬美元或3%。設備租賃費用增加300萬美元或4%，主因聯運相關設備成本較高以及通膨。

Turning below the line, interest expense was essentially flat as higher net debt balances were mostly offset by a lower weighted average coupon. Income tax expense decreased $37 million or 14%, primarily resulting from lower pretax income.

轉到線下項目，利息費用基本持平，因較高的淨負債餘額大多被較低的加權平均票面利率所抵銷。所得稅費用減少3,700萬美元或14%，主要由於稅前所得較低。

Closing out the income statement, CSX delivered operating income of $1.1 billion, reflecting a 56.9% operating ratio.

總結損益表，CSX實現營業利益11億美元，營業比率為56.9%。

Turning to the cash side of the equation on Slide 15. On a year-to-date basis, capital investment is roughly flat. We remain committed to investments that prioritize the safety and reliability of our core track, bridge and signal infrastructure. We use this opportunity to negotiate better materials and outside service costs, utilize track time to drive efficiencies and reinvest the savings into the network to take advantage of the lower train activity levels. We have spent a lot of time evaluating our non-infrastructure-related capital and have made progress prioritizing high-return projects while also eliminating projects that are no longer needed long term. Capital allocation remains a focus as we identify and prioritize investments that will drive high returns in the future.

接著看現金面，請看第15頁投影片。年初至今，資本投資大致持平。我們仍致力於優先投資於核心軌道、橋梁與號誌基礎設施的安全與可靠性。我們也把握這個機會，談判更有利的材料與外包服務成本，利用封鎖施工時間（track time）推動效率，並將節省下來的成本再投資於路網，以利用列車活動較低的水準。我們花了很多時間評估非基礎設施相關的資本支出，並在優先排序高報酬專案、同時淘汰長期不再需要的專案方面取得進展。資本配置仍是重點，我們將持續辨識並優先安排可在未來帶來高報酬的投資。

Through the third quarter, free cash flow before dividends was $1.9 billion, down 30% versus prior year, reflecting lower operating income, but also including impacts from lower proceeds from property dispositions. Free cash flow has continued to be a key focus for this team. Even if it's a challenging environment, free cash flow conversion on net income remains nearly 100%. Our cash and short-term investment balance remains strong, ending the quarter at $2.9 billion. As I have referenced previously, I expect this balance to normalize below $1 billion over time. As you saw with our announcement today of another $5 billion share repurchase program, we remain committed to ongoing return of capital with flexibility to remain opportunistic.

截至第三季，股利前自由現金流為19億美元，較去年同期下降30%，反映營業利益較低，同時也包含不動產處分收入較少的影響。自由現金流一直是本團隊的重點。即使在具挑戰的環境下，自由現金流對淨利的轉換率仍接近100%。我們的現金與短期投資餘額依然強勁，季末為29億美元。如我先前所提，我預期該餘額將隨時間推移回到10億美元以下。正如你們今天看到我們宣布新增50億美元庫藏股回購計畫，我們仍致力於持續回饋資本，同時保有彈性以把握機會。

With that, let me turn it back to Jim for his closing remarks.

接下來，讓我把時間交回Jim，請他做結語。

Great. Thanks a lot, Kevin. Concluding on Slide 16, we are continually assessing the pace of economic activity and will respond to the prevailing environment by delivering customers the highest levels of service and reliability in the most efficient manner. We are encouraged by the speed at which volumes recovered from the trough, particularly the strength in the intermodal market. Fourth quarter volumes to date are up year-over-year, and we all hope for continued positive economic momentum. As for capital expenditures, we still expect to be at the low end of our initial $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion range. This ability to confidently invest in our business throughout the cycle is a direct result of our industry-leading free cash flow profile and is a testament to the work done to transform this company. We also remain committed to returning excess cash flow to shareholders. We recently affirmed this commitment by expanding our repurchase program by $5 billion, bringing our total buyback authority to more than $6 billion.

好的。非常感謝，Kevin。總結第16頁投影片，我們持續評估經濟活動的步調，並將因應當前環境，以最有效率的方式為客戶提供最高水準的服務與可靠性。我們對運量自谷底回升的速度感到鼓舞，尤其是聯運市場的強勁表現。迄今第四季運量較去年同期成長，我們也都希望經濟動能能持續正向。至於資本支出，我們仍預期將落在原先16億至17億美元區間的低端。我們能在景氣循環中有信心地持續投資於業務，直接源自我們業界領先的自由現金流特性，也證明了推動公司轉型所做的努力。我們也仍致力於將超額現金流回饋股東。我們近期透過將回購計畫擴大50億美元再次確認此承諾，使我們的總回購授權提高至超過60億美元。

We entered into this pandemic period in a position of strength and confident that CSX would emerge a stronger company. I am proud to say that by staying true to our core values of operating safely, operating efficiently and helping our customers succeed by providing high level of service, we are a better company today.

我們在進入這段疫情期間時處於強勢地位，並有信心CSX將以更強的姿態走出來。我很自豪地說，透過堅守我們安全營運、高效率營運，以及以高水準服務協助客戶成功的核心價值觀，我們今天已是一家更好的公司。

Thank you. And I'll now turn you back to dial, Bill.

謝謝。接下來我把電話交回給主持人Bill。

Thank you, Jim. In the interest of time, I would ask everyone to please limit themselves to 1 question. With that, we will now take questions.

謝謝你，Jim。為了節省時間，我想請各位每人限制1個問題。接下來我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Allison Landry with Crédit Suisse.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸（Crédit Suisse）的Allison Landry。

Jim, so you talked about the truck plan compliance improving throughout the quarter, and it sounds like it ended at least fairly close to where you were in the past few quarters. But what does it take from here to get those numbers up further? And then maybe specifically, if you could address on the carload side, where do you think you need to be ultimately to start to chip away at the opportunity to convert the merchandise volume from the highway? And then do you think this is something that could start to accrue in 2021 or is this more of a 2022 and beyond story?

Jim，你提到卡車計畫遵循度（truck plan compliance）在本季持續改善，聽起來期末至少相當接近你們過去幾季的水準。但接下來要如何才能讓這些數字進一步提升？另外，或許更具體地，若就整車（carload）業務而言，你認為最終需要達到什麼水準，才能開始逐步把公路上的一般貨運量轉換到你們這邊？你覺得這會在2021年開始貢獻，還是更像是2022年及之後的故事？

All right, Allison. It's a perfect question. Let me just say, and then I'll turn it over to Jamie and Mark to follow up in terms of trip plan compliance. The surge of volumes was a challenge, but we're going to get back -- number one, we're going to get back to where we were, and we're going to get back to where we were as quickly as we can. And then we are going to get better, and we're going to get better, and we're going to get better, and we're going to get better.

好的，Allison。這是個非常好的問題。我先簡單說一下，然後我會把時間交給Jamie和Mark，請他們就行程計畫遵循度（trip plan compliance）補充細節。運量的激增確實帶來挑戰，但我們會回到——第一，我們會回到原本的水準，而且會盡快回到原本的水準。接著我們會變得更好、更好、更好、再更好。

So -- and Jamie can talk about some of the details associated with that.

所以——Jamie可以談談其中一些相關細節。

No, absolutely. Look, as we continue to analyze the plan and we made our changes throughout the last few months, we wanted to make sure that everything we gained with respect to our train footage and train tonnage, road starts that we didn't lose any momentum on that side. And as Jim had said, the traffic was really -- at times, it was all over the place, and it was coming in different bubbles. We weren't sure exactly where it was going to end up. Working really close with Mark and his team, we were able to pull off some pretty amazing results, making some large reductions. If you take a look at just our train year-over-year, our train length is up 13%, our train tonnage is up 12%. We were able to do that with, like, 350 less locomotives. So there's a lot of assets that we were able to pull out as we were making these changes.

是的，完全同意。你看，當我們持續分析計畫並在過去幾個月做出調整時，我們希望確保在列車長度與列車噸位、以及道路開行（road starts）方面所取得的成果，不會在那一端失去任何動能。正如Jim所說，貨量確實——有時候非常不穩定，會以不同的波段湧入。我們並不確定最後會落在哪裡。透過與Mark及其團隊密切合作，我們得以做出一些相當驚人的成果，在大幅削減方面表現突出。若你看我們列車的年對年數據，列車長度增加13%，列車噸位增加12%。而我們是在少了大約350台機車的情況下做到的。因此，在我們進行這些調整時，有大量資產得以退出使用。

And really, it's about exercising our people and getting them up to speed on running a network that's a little bit different than what we were used to, making that 18% reduction in road starts and the longer trains, heavier trains. In some areas, some of the execution wasn't perfect, maybe what we were used to at the time. If I take a look at some of the areas where we missed on our trip plans, it was only within a few hours. It wasn't like it was days. And really, for us, service is all about reliability. So it's really important for us to get that reliability to the customer, and we're working on it each and every day, and we'll continue to push that forward. And I'll let Mark comment on the other part.

而且說真的，這關乎於訓練我們的人員，讓他們能夠迅速上手去運行一個與我們過去習慣稍有不同的網路——包括將道路開行（road starts）降低18%，以及更長、更重的列車。在某些區域，部分執行並不完美，可能也不完全符合我們當時所習慣的做法。如果我看看我們在哪些行程計畫（trip plans）上沒有達標，其實也只是差了幾個小時，並不是差了好幾天。對我們而言，服務的核心就是可靠性。因此，把這份可靠性帶給客戶非常重要；我們每天都在努力改善，並且會持續推進。我也請Mark來評論另一部分。

Yes. No, it's a great question, Allison. And everything Jamie and his team are doing to continue to deliver great service for our customers is really helping us win share in the marketplace with our customers as we sit down and we open up their books and look for opportunities to gain share in lanes where maybe they haven't traditionally used rail. They've been more truck-focused or in order -- in some lanes in order for us to gain more of their wallet share. We're seeing a number of these wins even during Q2 and Q3. So as the service continues to get better, and it will, we're going to find more of those opportunities. We're excited by them. We're growing a lot. And now we've seen a lot of good wins in forest products and metals. And even in bulk markets like ag, we're seeing some great truck conversion wins. So the team is focused on it. We're identifying them, and and thanks to the service product that Jamie and his team are delivering to us that's making those opportunities easier with those conversations with our customers.

是的。不，Allison，這是個很好的問題。Jamie和他的團隊為了持續向客戶提供優質服務所做的一切，確實正在幫助我們在市場上、在客戶那裡贏得更多份額——當我們坐下來、打開他們的帳本，尋找機會在一些他們過去未必傳統上使用鐵路的路線（lanes）上取得份額時；他們可能更偏向卡車，或者在某些路線上，我們希望能取得更多他們的錢包份額（wallet share）。即便在第二季與第三季期間，我們也看到不少這樣的勝利。隨著服務持續改善——而且一定會——我們會找到更多這類機會。我們對此感到興奮。我們成長很多。現在我們在林產品與金屬方面看到許多很好的勝利；甚至在農業等散裝市場（bulk markets），我們也看到一些很棒的卡車轉換（truck conversion）勝利。因此團隊正專注於此，我們正在辨識這些機會；也要感謝Jamie和他的團隊交付給我們的服務產品，讓我們與客戶對話時更容易促成這些機會。

Our next question is from Brandon Oglenski with Deutsche Bank (sic) [Barclays].

我們的下一個問題來自Deutsche Bank（原文如此）[Barclays] 的Brandon Oglenski。

Hey, it's actually Brandon with Barclays, unless there's been a big M&A transaction on the bank side. But Jim, I just wanted to ask you, there's a narrative out there with a lot of investor focus at other railroads and what the sector is doing really well. But you guys have already gone through your PSR. And if you look at your former employer, obviously, some pretty big valuations going to the border. So I guess, what do you want investors to measure you against the next few years to hopefully regain some of that relative valuation premium to reflect your cash flow today?

嗨，其實我是Barclays的Brandon，除非銀行那邊發生了一筆很大的併購交易。不過Jim，我想問的是，市場上有一種敘事：投資人很關注其他鐵路公司以及整個產業做得很好的地方。但你們其實已經走過PSR了。如果你看看你之前的雇主，顯然有一些相當高的估值一路延伸到邊境。所以我想問的是，未來幾年你希望投資人用什麼指標來衡量你們，讓你們有機會重新取得一些相對估值溢價，以反映你們今天的現金流？

Well, we don't measure ourselves necessarily against the other railroads. I guess if they thought we've already gone through it, that's only because we're so far ahead of them right now, all they see is our taillights. And so, yes, we're benchmarking against what we think are the excellent operating companies out there and also looking at how we can continue to expand our services and help Mark out in any way he can possibly do it to continue to grow our profile and grow our revenue base, and that's what this company has been about since the first day I got here. You can't really sell anything until you got a good product, and we've created a fantastic and excellent product. And now we're going to continue to sell it.

嗯，我們不會必然拿自己去和其他鐵路公司相比。我想如果他們覺得我們已經走過那段路，那只是因為我們現在領先他們太多了——他們看到的只有我們的車尾燈。所以，是的，我們會對標我們認為外面那些卓越的營運公司，同時也在思考我們如何能持續擴展服務，並在Mark能做到的任何方面協助他，持續提升我們的能見度、擴大我們的營收基礎——這也是我第一天來到這家公司以來一直在做的事。你在沒有好產品之前，其實什麼都賣不出去；而我們已經打造出一個非常出色、非常優秀的產品。接下來我們會繼續把它賣出去。

Our next question is from Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自Deutsche Bank的Amit Mehrotra。

First of all, I'm glad Brandon is still at Barclays. I got worried there for a second. Congrats, guys, Jim, Kevin, Jamie and everybody on the strong operating results. I was hoping you could give us maybe some high-level thoughts as we enter '21 -- into '21, specifically about the point at which you guys just have to add back more -- add back costs more meaningfully given the Caribbean revenue. It's obviously pretty amazing to see close to a 20% sequential increase in revenue and headcount be flat to down, MS&O be down pretty materially sequentially. If you can just talk about the runway on that type of performance in terms of the revenue versus cost performance and just how incremental margins can trend relative to the 80% that you guys achieved in the third quarter.

首先，我很高興Brandon還在Barclays，我剛剛還擔心了一下。恭喜各位——Jim、Kevin、Jamie以及大家——營運結果非常強勁。我想請你們在我們進入2021年之際，提供一些高層次的看法——具體來說，考量到加勒比（Caribbean）營收，你們在什麼時點會需要更明顯地把成本加回來（add back costs more meaningfully）。看到營收季增接近20%，而人頭數持平到下降、MS&O（維修、物料與其他）季比季大幅下降，確實非常驚人。你們能否談談這種表現的延續空間——也就是營收相對成本的表現——以及增量利潤率（incremental margins）相對於你們第三季達到的80%會如何走勢？

Yes, Amit, it's Kevin here. We're not going to get into 2021 guidance at this point. But when we think about...

是的，Amit，我是Kevin。我們目前不會提供2021年的指引。不過當我們思考……

I'm not asking for '21 guidance.

我不是在問2021年的指引。

Yes. I got it.

是的。我明白。

Yes. It's more like the mismatch. Okay. Yes, go ahead.

是的。比較像是不匹配的問題。好。是的，你繼續。

Yes, yes. When we think about, to your point, incremental margins, clearly, what we were able to do here in the third quarter versus second quarter shows the power, the leverage we have in the model. Certainly, if we see volume increase at a good pace next year, we will have to add some headcount. That will be a good news story. It won't be one for one, maybe I'll let Jamie talk to that a little bit, but we're preparing for that. We're preparing for growth around here. But we've done a lot of things structurally when you look at our management workforce, you look at our G&A cost, that will certainly leverage into next year. So a lot of work that we accelerated next year that I would fully anticipate that we take advantage of going forward.

是的，是的。當我們談到你提到的增量利潤率時，很明顯，我們第三季相較第二季所做到的，展現了我們這個模型的威力與槓桿。當然，如果明年我們看到運量以不錯的速度增加，我們將必須增加一些人力。那會是一個好消息的故事。它不會是一比一的增加；也許我讓Jamie稍微談一下，但我們正在為此做準備。我們正在為成長做準備。不過從結構面來看，當你看我們的管理人力結構、看我們的G&A成本，這些都會在明年帶來槓桿效益。因此，我們做了很多事情——我們把一些工作加速推進到明年——我完全預期我們未來會持續受益。

The fortunate part is, through this pandemic, we invested in our network. We have a lot of capacity. I think that actually differentiates us in the market today from what we've heard out there. So we have the ability to grow and grow if the volume is there. And so that's what we're all talking about right now as we look out to 2021, what that might look like, how do we resource for it, but still keeping an eye and capturing all the things that we've done over the last 6 to 7 months and not losing those great efforts that we were able to achieve.

比較幸運的是，在這次疫情期間，我們投資了我們的網路。我們有很大的產能。我認為這其實讓我們在今天的市場上與其他人有所區隔——就我們聽到的情況而言。因此，只要運量在，我們就有能力成長、持續成長。所以這也是我們現在在展望2021年時一直在討論的：它可能會是什麼樣子、我們要如何配置資源，同時仍要盯緊並保留過去6到7個月我們所做的一切，不要失去那些我們達成的很棒成果。

So it sounds like -- yes. I'm sorry.

所以聽起來——是的。抱歉。

As Kevin noted, I mean, we've got a network that we can still bring on 20% to 30%. We're quite comfortable with continuing to bring on business as we move forward. But I mean, look, the plan itself is running well. We continue to analyze it. We continue to execute, and we'll analyze and execute and continue to work very closely with Mark's team with all new business opportunities that are out there. We've got a number of locomotives in storage that we can pull out. We are going to be doing some hiring. We have got some hiring classes out there with some T&E employees. And I think it's important that we stay ahead of what we see coming forward as well as working very close with our union groups and making sure that we're hand-in-hand with supplying the service that we said we would. And look, I've said it time and time again, and I think we've proved it, we don't bring on assets unless we -- they earn their keep and we sweat them. So that's what we're going to continue to do is to stick on the same model that we've been working towards.

如Kevin所說，我是說，我們的網路仍然可以再承接20%到30%。我們對於在未來持續承接業務非常有信心。但我是說，看看，這個計畫本身運行得很好。我們持續分析它、持續執行；我們會分析、執行，並且持續與Mark的團隊非常緊密合作，針對所有新的業務機會。我們有不少機車頭（locomotives）在封存（storage）中，可以拉出來用。我們也會進行一些招募；我們已經安排了一些T&E（列車與機務）員工的招募班次。我認為重要的是，我們要走在我們所看到的未來需求之前，同時也要與工會團體密切合作，確保我們手牽手地提供我們所承諾的服務。而且你看，我一再強調、我想我們也證明了：除非資產能夠——能夠賺回它的成本並被我們充分運用（we sweat them），否則我們不會引進資產。所以我們會持續沿用同一個我們一直努力的模型。

Is the comment on 20% to 30% volume growth, a capital -- a CapEx comment in terms of not going to add CapEx? Or is that also a comment about not going to add a significant amount of OpEx to -- yes, go ahead.

關於20%到30%運量成長的評論，是一個資本——一個資本支出（CapEx）的評論，意思是不會增加CapEx嗎？還是那也是在說不會增加大量營運支出（OpEx）來——是的，你請說。

That's on the -- looking on the CapEx side, we've got a great plant out there. We've got long sidings. We've got double track. We've got a good main line. We've got good yards. So yes, absolutely, we can continue to absorb business on our mainline as Mark and his team brings it on.

那是從CapEx的角度來看；我們有很好的既有設施（plant）。我們有長會車線（long sidings）、有雙線（double track）、有良好的主線（main line）、有良好的場站（yards）。所以是的，絕對地，隨著Mark和他的團隊把業務帶進來，我們可以持續在主線上吸收這些業務。

The next question is from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美國銀行美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）的Ken Hoexter。

Congrats on the really strong results, great to see. Maybe, I don't know, Jim or Mark, if you could talk a little bit about pricing, what you're seeing in the marketplace. Obviously, competitor is focused on in region focused on yielding up, yet you still seem to be taking share. Maybe you can talk us through a little bit because, obviously, with the down 8% on our revenue per car, it's tough to see on the mix impacts overall. You can talk a bit about what's going on in pricing and business wins.

恭喜你們交出非常強勁的結果，很高興看到。也許——我不知道——Jim或Mark，你們能否談一下定價（pricing），以及你們在市場上看到的情況。顯然，競爭對手在區域內更專注於提高收益率（yielding up），但你們似乎仍在取得份額。也許你們可以帶我們梳理一下，因為很明顯，單車營收（revenue per car）下降8%，從整體組合影響來看不太容易看清。你們能談談定價以及業務勝利（business wins）方面正在發生什麼嗎？

Sure, Ken. Hope you're doing well. So let's look at -- let's go back the inning here on the different markets. Merchandise RPU down 2%, fuel surcharge was a 3% headwind this quarter. To that, intermodal RPU down 6%, fuel surcharge 2% -- sorry, 4%. And coal RPU down 12%, fuel surcharge was 3% headwind. And the rest, obviously, the delta there, mix and price for coal, most of that was due to price, just given some of the export benchmarks that we saw and the softness in the domestic utility markets. Obviously, mix continues to play an overall driver of RPU this quarter like it always does. There was negative mix overall. We saw that in metals and equipment and chemicals. There was positive mix in some like coal -- export coal. We had favorability due to the thermal exports declining faster than the met exports. And minerals also saw some larger declines in shorter haul northern aggregate business. That was just basically given some of the budget cuts and some of the project cuts because of COVID-19.

當然，Ken。希望你一切都好。那我們來看一下——我們把不同市場這一局回顧一下。一般貨物RPU下降2%，燃油附加費在本季帶來3%的逆風。就此而言，聯運RPU下降6%，燃油附加費2%——抱歉，是4%。而煤炭RPU下降12%，燃油附加費帶來3%的逆風。其餘部分，顯然，那裡的差異主要來自煤炭的組合與價格，其中大多數是因為價格，主要是考量到我們看到的一些出口基準，以及國內公用事業市場的疲弱。顯然，組合本季一如既往仍然是RPU的整體驅動因素。我們看到整體組合為負，體現在金屬與設備以及化學品上。有些則是正向組合，例如煤炭——出口煤。我們之所以有利，係因熱能煤出口下滑速度快於冶金煤出口。而礦物也在北部短途骨材業務上出現較大幅度下滑。這基本上是因為COVID-19導致的一些預算削減與專案削減。

So mix is always a bit of an issue for us. As you know, we're probably, Ken, going to see the continued 7 to 8 -- sorry, 7% to 8% gap between volume and revenue going forward into the Q4. I would expect that to sequentially improve into Q1 and beyond. Pricing, our pricing philosophy has not changed, and price continues to be a main focus for the team as we deliver on sustainable and profitable growth. We're partnering with our customers to create solutions to help them grow and price to the value of the service product that Jim and his team are delivering. And I've said it before, and I'll say it again, we're not sacrificing price for volume.

所以組合對我們來說一直都是個有點棘手的問題。如你所知，Ken，往後進入第四季，我們可能會持續看到運量與營收之間約7%到8%——抱歉，7%到8%的差距。我預期這個差距會在第一季及之後逐季改善。定價方面，我們的定價理念沒有改變，價格仍然是團隊在實現可持續且具獲利性的成長時的主要重點。我們正與客戶合作，創造解決方案來協助他們成長，並依據Jim和他的團隊所提供的服務產品價值來定價。我以前說過，我再說一次，我們不會為了運量而犧牲價格。

Our next question is from Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

下一個問題來自UBS的Tom Wadewitz。

Yes, great. Mark, I've got, I guess, questions for you or a question, if you will. How are you thinking about -- I guess we've had kind of 2 different dynamics where the consumer and retail side has been super strong and truck and intermodal tight and industrial has been kind of slower rebounding. What's your thought on industrial view? Are you optimistic that, that you're seeing signs of that picking up? And what is the customer seeing in the industrial side? Are they seeing a lot of tightness in truck that really encourages conversion to rail? Or are they not seeing such a tight market, given that the industrial side maybe hasn't improved like the retail and consumer side?

好的，很好。Mark，我想我有——我想是給你的一些問題，或者說一個問題。你怎麼看待——我想我們看到兩種不同的動態：消費者與零售端非常強勁，卡車與聯運市場吃緊，而工業端的復甦則比較慢。你對工業端的看法是什麼？你是否樂觀，認為你看到一些回升的跡象？而客戶在工業端看到的是什麼？他們是否看到卡車市場非常緊，從而真的促使貨源轉向鐵路？還是說他們沒有看到那麼緊的市場，因為工業端可能不像零售與消費端那樣改善？

Yes. So it's a great question. And so we are seeing the tight -- obviously, the tight truck market out there. Things are on the intermodal side. Clearly, there's -- capacity has been constrained as replenishments have been going on. There's been some driver shortages in several markets like Southern California, Chicago, et cetera. We have seen some good pickup in some truck conversions with our intermodal business, as Jim highlighted. Our intermodal trip plan performance has been quite good. Our service has been quite good. So we're happy with that, and I think that will continue, obviously. The consumer is still very, very strong. We expect a robust peak season around Thanksgiving time is usually when we see that e-commerce peak to Christmas time. We expect that to be very strong. Actually, it has been strong through the pandemic, just as people have been staying at home and ordering stuff online, but we expect it to pick up even more robustly going forward as we approach Thanksgiving. So looking for that to continue through Christmas. And then overall, intermodal, we are quite happy with the business. And speaking with our customers, we expect that to continue deep into Q1. So good size there.

是的。這是個很好的問題。我們確實看到——顯然，外部卡車市場很緊。聯運這邊也是。很明顯，隨著補庫存進行，運能受到限制。在南加州、芝加哥等幾個市場也出現一些司機短缺。正如Jim所強調的，我們在聯運業務上確實看到一些不錯的卡轉鐵。我們的聯運行程計畫（trip plan）表現相當好，服務也相當好。所以我們對此很滿意，我認為這顯然會持續。消費端仍然非常、非常強勁。我們預期在感恩節前後會有強勁的旺季，通常那時候電商會一路旺到聖誕節。我們預期會非常強。其實在疫情期間一直都很強，因為大家待在家裡、在網路上下單，但我們預期隨著接近感恩節，還會更強勁地上升。所以我們看好這股趨勢會一路延續到聖誕節。整體而言，聯運方面我們對業務相當滿意。與客戶交流後，我們預期這種態勢會一路延續到第一季深處。所以規模相當不錯。

I think on the merchandise side, on the industrial side, the tighter truck market, obviously, has allowed us to sit down with our customers, have different conversations. They're looking in these tight times now when their business levels are down to save some cost. Obviously, transportation cost for them is a significant headwind. And so as we all know, the 12% to 15% discount that rail offers, given with our good service products, has allowed us to go and sit down with our customers. And they can't get trucks. Truck market is tight. The spot rates are up. And so we are seeing conversions there, and we hope that continues. And hopefully, that traffic that comes to us remains sticky even post -- as things do improve and the truck market eases up a little bit. If we're able to show the power of rail and keep performing like we know we can, hopefully, a lot of that traffic will stick on CSX going forward.

我認為在一般貨物端、也就是工業端，卡車市場更緊，顯然讓我們能與客戶坐下來進行不同的對話。他們在這種緊俏時期、且其業務量下滑的情況下，會尋求節省成本。顯然，運輸成本對他們而言是一個顯著的逆風。而我們都知道，鐵路在我們良好的服務產品支撐下，能提供12%到15%的成本折扣，這讓我們得以去與客戶坐下來談。他們叫不到卡車。卡車市場很緊，現貨運價上升。因此我們確實看到一些轉換，我們也希望這能持續。並且希望即使在之後——當情況改善、卡車市場稍微舒緩之後——這些轉過來的貨量仍能保持黏著度。如果我們能展現鐵路的優勢，並持續像我們知道自己能做到的那樣維持表現，希望未來有相當一部分貨量會持續留在CSX。

The next question is from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自Wolfe Research的Scott Group。

So Kevin, on the MS&O costs, I know they're lumpy, but anything unusual or onetime issue in this quarter? Any thoughts on how to think about MS&O in the fourth quarter, up or down? And then I was just wondering, with the buyback, any thoughts on timing? Are you guys considering an ASR? And does this change your leverage targets in any way?

Kevin，關於MS&O成本，我知道它會有波動，但本季是否有任何不尋常或一次性的因素？對於第四季MS&O該如何看待，有沒有想法，是上升還是下降？另外我也想問，關於回購，你們對時點有什麼想法？你們是否在考慮ASR（加速股票回購）？這會以任何方式改變你們的槓桿目標嗎？

Yes. Let's start with the MS&O. I wouldn't call anything extraordinarily unusual in the third truck. Usually, what's unusual or what the analysts like yourself like to call out is the real estate was almost de minimis in the quarter, so nothing there. And obviously, we had a year-over-year headwind when you look at real estate gains. We had some significant gains last year and didn't have that this year. When we look to fourth quarter, we always have seasonality. And this is around a number of areas in our business. When I look at engineering, the extra cost related to the winter vacations start to -- the capital teams once they go off vacation, on the vacations, start to hit OE expense. We had G&A seasonality in the fourth quarter. So I would expect some year-over-year improvement in MS&O into the fourth quarter when you exclude the real estate from last year there. So we'll see an uptick in MS&O sequentially, but still a year-over-year improvement, excluding the real estate gains from last year.

是的。我們先從MS&O談起。我不會說第三季有什麼特別不尋常的事情。通常所謂不尋常、或像你這樣的分析師喜歡點出的，是本季房地產幾乎可以忽略不計，所以那部分沒有什麼。顯然，當你看房地產收益時，我們在年對年上有逆風，因為去年有一些顯著收益，而今年沒有。展望第四季，我們一向有季節性，這涉及我們業務的多個領域。以工程部門來看，與冬季休假相關的額外成本會開始——資本團隊一旦開始休假，就會反映在營運費用（OE）上。第四季也有G&A的季節性。因此，若排除去年房地產的影響，我預期第四季MS&O年對年會有所改善。所以MS&O會較前一季上升，但若排除去年房地產收益，仍會呈現年對年改善。

What was the follow-up question?

追問是什麼？

Just about the buyback and timing and leverage targets, all that.

就是關於回購、時點以及槓桿目標等等。

Yes. I think we're going to evaluate the buyback program. Jim and I talk closely. I think as we get more stability in the markets here, as we get more clarity around the pandemic and the implications there, clearly, $2.9 billion of cash is not what we need to operate our business. So I'd expect that to trend down into next year. So I would -- you could expect us to be back in the market.

是的。我想我們會評估回購計畫。Jim和我會密切討論。我認為隨著市場更穩定、以及我們對疫情及其影響有更清晰的認識，很明顯，29億美元的現金並不是我們營運業務所需要的水準。所以我預期明年會往下降。因此——你可以預期我們會回到市場上。

Our next question is from Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自JPMorgan的Brian Ossenbeck。

Kevin, one more for you. How are you viewing the opportunities in the land portfolio with gains pretty much minimal here through the rest of the year? And being able to elaborate on some of those recurring revenue streams that you're evaluating, as you look at this book of business, are there more ways to grow in the future and convert traffic off the highway with maybe leveraging some of that land for the industrial development projects?

Kevin，再問你一個。你如何看待土地資產組合的機會，因為今年剩餘時間的處分收益基本上都很少？另外，當你檢視這本業務時，能否更詳細說明你們正在評估的一些經常性收入來源——未來是否有更多成長方式，並且可能透過利用部分土地來做工業開發專案，把貨量從公路轉到鐵路？

Absolutely. We're in great conversations. I actually just had the opportunity to hire a new head of our real estate group. I'm very, very excited about what she's going to drive here at the company. She's hit the ground running here in the last few weeks, but she's working really closely with Tom -- or with Mark's team on the industrial development side and identifying areas where we might be able to locate, whether it's warehousing, other opportunities, whether it's us investing in those assets or partnering with others and know how to do it. So that's a great opportunity for us.

當然可以。我們正在進行非常好的對話。我其實剛有機會聘請了一位新的不動產團隊主管。我對她將在公司推動的事情感到非常、非常興奮。她在過去幾週已經迅速上手，並且正與Tom——或與Mark的團隊——在工業開發方面密切合作，辨識我們可能可以布局的區域，不論是倉儲或其他機會，不論是我們投資這些資產，或與其他具備專業能力的夥伴合作。這對我們而言是個很好的機會。

In terms of the real estate sales, we have -- I mentioned it on my prepared remarks. We have a great pipeline. These things, we're not going to -- we're going to sell when the time is right, when we can maximize value. But there's still a robust pipeline. It will probably be lumpy from here. But I'm pretty excited about what we have in-store over the next few years there. These things tend to take time to get to the close, but we're working pretty hard on that area.

就不動產出售而言，我在事先準備的發言中提到過，我們有很好的案源管線。這些案子我們不會——我們會在時機成熟、能夠最大化價值時才出售。但管線仍然很強勁。從現在起可能會比較不均勻（lumpy）。不過我對未來幾年我們的儲備感到相當興奮。這些案子通常需要時間才能完成交割，但我們在這個領域投入了相當多的努力。

And then just on the recurring revenue side, it's something that I've asked the team to really focus on over the next 6 months, whether it's electronic billboards, whether it's more fiber, anything we can do to leverage our real estate portfolio. These are great, great opportunities. And once you sign these contracts, they continue, you get revenue every year after year. So it's really -- we're one of the largest landowners in the Eastern United States. We should leverage that as much as we can. And so I have challenged the team to go out and do that, and I think they're doing a good job so far.

然後就經常性收入這一塊來說，這是我要求團隊在接下來 6 個月真正聚焦的事情，不論是電子看板、不論是更多光纖，或任何我們能做的、用來槓桿運用我們不動產資產組合的方式。這些都是非常、非常好的機會。而且一旦你簽下這些合約，它們就會持續，你每年都會一再取得收入。所以這真的——我們是美國東部最大的土地所有者之一。我們應該盡可能加以運用。因此我也挑戰團隊出去把這件事做起來，我認為到目前為止他們做得很好。

The next question is from Chris Wetherbee with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗（Citi）的 Chris Wetherbee。

On Slide 10, you have an interesting chart on the operating leverage, and it really shows how much the resources have flattened out even as volume has continued to improve kind of coming out of August and into September and October. Conceptually, is there a point with volume growth that you feel like there will be a step function higher in some of these resources? Or can you continue to maintain? Do you feel like you have capacity with the resources they're operating right now, even as volumes are kind of ticking up, Jim, as you mentioned here in the fourth quarter?

在第 10 張投影片上，你有一張很有意思的營運槓桿圖表，它清楚顯示即使運量在 8 月之後、進入 9 月與 10 月持續改善，資源投入卻已大幅趨於平坦。從概念上來看，當運量成長到某個程度時，你是否覺得某些資源會出現階梯式上升？還是你們可以持續維持？你覺得以目前的資源配置，即便如你在第四季提到的運量正在上升，仍然有足夠產能嗎，Jim？

Well, clearly, a it's a 2-part question, which I think Jamie answered a second ago. We've got a ton of capacity and availability to bring on more business from a physical infrastructure perspective without spending any capital to do that, but you're not going to grow the business forever without having to add additional employees, mainly because we have tons of locomotives in storage and all of that. So the question is, with your operating performance, we need to get to the point where your train length gets to the point where it's long enough or heavy enough where you need to split that train. And when you split that train, you need to have the additional employees to utilize in order to be able to operate it. And so we're moving into a new level now. But what you've seen over the last few years and what was highlighted in great detail in the last few months is today, we can do things from a staffing perspective the roads in the past couldn't do.

嗯，很明顯，這是一個兩段式的問題，我想 Jamie 剛剛已回答了第二段。從實體基礎設施的角度來看，我們有大量產能與可用性，可以在不投入任何資本支出的情況下承接更多業務；但你不可能在不增加額外員工的情況下無止境地擴張業務，主要是因為我們有大量機車在封存中等等。所以問題在於，就你的營運表現而言，我們需要到達一個點：列車長度變得夠長或夠重，以至於你必須把那列車拆分。而當你拆分列車時，你就需要額外員工來運用，才能夠操作它。因此我們現在正進入一個新的層級。但你在過去幾年看到的、以及過去幾個月被非常詳細強調的，是今天我們在人力配置方面能做到過去的鐵路公司做不到的事。

If you would have had -- listen, I've been doing this a long time. If you'd had this kind of traffic surge across the rail network in North America 4, 5 years ago, we would be now talking about gridlock across all the major cities in the country, and we wouldn't be doing anything. And now with the common mindset of how you run a railroad, we're able to respond, we're able to pivot. We are nimble. We can add capacity. We can shrink capacity. We can rightsize our business, and we can do that much more effectively and much more logically and partially. And God, I hope we get to the day, the sooner the better, when we got to start hiring more and more people because the business is growing and growing and growing. And Mark's just knocking them out of the park every single day.

如果你當時有——聽著，我做這行很久了。如果 4、5 年前北美鐵路網出現這種交通量激增，我們現在會在談全國各大城市全面塞車，而我們什麼都做不了。而現在，憑藉對如何經營鐵路的共同思維，我們能夠回應、能夠轉向。我們很靈活。我們可以增加產能，也可以縮減產能。我們可以讓業務規模更貼合需求，而且我們能更有效、更合乎邏輯、也更分階段地做到。天啊，我希望我們能早日——越快越好——到達必須開始雇用越來越多人的那一天，因為業務一直成長、一直成長、一直成長。而 Mark 每天都表現得非常出色。

But in the meantime, we're not going to add back assets, as Jamie said, when we don't need them. But the minute we do, we talk about that around 5x a day. The minute we do, we'll put them on so we can move to freight.

但在此期間，正如 Jamie 所說，當我們不需要時，我們不會把資產加回來。不過一旦需要，我們一天大概會談這件事 5 次。一旦需要，我們就會把它們投入使用，這樣我們就能運送貨運。

The next question is from Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.

下一個問題來自 Susquehanna 的 Bascome Majors。

Yes. Kevin, I want to go back to an earlier question. Can you refresh us on your comfort level with leverage given some of the uncertainty on either tax policy, economy, et cetera? With that buyback, what are the guardrails at the upper ends that you're watching for to perhaps tap the breaks once you start buying stock again?

是的。Kevin，我想回到先前的一個問題。鑑於稅務政策、經濟等方面存在一些不確定性，你能否更新一下你對槓桿水準的舒適度？在進行那個回購時，你在上限端會關注哪些護欄指標，以便在重新開始買回股票後，必要時踩煞車、放慢節奏？

Look, as I talked about, we have $3 billion of cash on our balance sheet, so I've got to get through that before we have even -- would think about leverage and -- plus we're generating a significant amount of cash at this point. So when you look at the algorithm that we can create with that, it's quite compelling. Where we are on a leverage standpoint, we're in a great position. We didn't go under stress during this significant decline in the second quarter. We had access to capital, which is what we always want to have with our strong investment-grade rating, so that's important. And you want to be at a point where you can always have the ability to be opportunistic. And so I think where we are today allows for that flexibility. If the opportunity arises, we can react and leverage the opportunity when it's there. So I think we're quite comfortable today with where we are.

你看，正如我提到的，我們資產負債表上有 30 億美元現金，所以在我們甚至——會去考慮槓桿之前，我得先把那部分用掉——而且我們目前也在產生相當可觀的現金。所以當你看我們可以用這些建立的資本配置算法時，是相當有吸引力的。就槓桿而言，我們的位置非常好。在第二季這次顯著下滑期間，我們沒有承受壓力。我們仍能取得資金，這正是我們一直希望在強健的投資級評等下能做到的，因此這很重要。你也希望處在一個永遠有能力把握機會的狀態。因此我認為我們目前的位置提供了那種彈性。如果機會出現，我們可以反應並在機會存在時加以運用。所以我想我們對目前的狀況相當放心。

Our next question is from Justin Long with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Justin Long。

So headed into this year, you had talked about some irregular year-over-year headwinds. Kevin, I know you had called out D&A, lower gains on sale, real estate sales, other revenue. I know you're not giving guidance on 2021, but just from a high level, are there any unique items like that, that we should be modeling? Or do you think, next year, it's more of a clean year where we should see the underlying operating leverage of the business play out?

所以在今年開始時，你曾談到一些不規則的年對年逆風。Kevin，我知道你點出了折舊與攤銷（D&A）、較低的出售收益、不動產出售、其他收入。我知道你們不提供 2021 年指引，但從高層次來看，是否還有任何像那樣的特殊項目，是我們在建模時應該納入的？或者你認為明年會比較乾淨，我們應該能看到業務的內在營運槓桿發揮？

Yes. I mean we'll obviously get more into that on the next call here, but depreciation would be a similar headwind to what we have right now. But I would also point out our depreciation relative to our CapEx is probably the smallest gap of -- in the industry right there. So probably not the step-up that we saw this year on the depreciation side. We don't have any significant life study that created a headwind this year. Real estate taxes will continue to be a headwind into next year, probably around the same level it was, maybe a little bit less of a headwind going into next year. Inflation, we think inflation remains relatively modest and no significant pickup there, which is good. Outside of that, as we get into it on the next call, we'll highlight any other things that come up.

是的。我的意思是，我們顯然會在下一次電話會議更深入談這些，但折舊會是與目前類似的逆風。不過我也要指出，我們的折舊相對於資本支出（CapEx）的差距，可能是業界中最小的之一。因此在折舊面，可能不會出現今年那種幅度的上升。我們也沒有任何重大的使用年限研究在今年造成逆風。不動產稅明年仍會是逆風，可能大致與今年相同水準，明年可能逆風稍微小一些。通膨方面，我們認為通膨仍相對溫和，沒有明顯加速，這是好事。除此之外，等到下一次電話會議，我們會再強調任何其他出現的事項。

Okay. And based on your comment about D&A being pretty close to CapEx, it sounds like your expectation for 100% free cash flow conversion isn't going to change in the near term?

好的。根據你提到 D&A 與 CapEx 相當接近的評論，聽起來你對 100% 自由現金流轉換率的預期，在短期內不會改變？

We are very focused on our free cash flow conversion.

我們非常專注於自由現金流轉換率。

Our next question is from David Ross with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 David Ross。

A lot of good stuff to talk about, but I wanted to talk about one of the lingering pains in terms of coal. What's the latest on inventory levels and outlook? I think, Kevin, you had recent comments at an industry conference about maybe getting flat to up comps in 2021. So any more color on coal would be helpful.

有很多好內容可以談，但我想談談煤炭方面一些揮之不去的痛點。庫存水準與展望的最新情況如何？我記得 Kevin，你最近在一場產業會議上提到，2021 年可能會出現持平到成長的比較基期（comps）。所以如果能多提供一些煤炭方面的細節會很有幫助。

Yes, sure, David. So you want to just stick to domestic coal or are you interested in export as well?

好的，當然，David。你是想只談國內煤，還是也對出口有興趣？

Give it all to me.

全部都告訴我。

Okay. Perfect. Let's start with domestic, it's the largest part of our coal business. So the stockpiles right now to your question are at or below sort of averages, both in the north and in the south. We have seen a good summer for burn, was kind of hot in both the north and the south, so the stockpiles did diminish a bit. Gas prices, nat gas prices, we saw them creep up to $2.50 or so. They came back down, now they're back up to the mid- to high 2s. We like to see them above $2.80 to really -- the economics work for the utilities to really start to burn more coal. I'm really encouraged by sort of the November contract and the forward curve into 2021 as we see it above $3, which is quite encouraging. So hopefully, that continues, and we can expect to move more coal going into the new year -- and in Q4 in the back half of Q4.

好。太好了。我們先從國內煤開始，這是我們煤炭業務中最大的一部分。針對你問的庫存，目前北方與南方的庫存都在平均水準附近或低於平均。我們看到今年夏季燃煤發電需求不錯，北方和南方都偏熱，所以庫存確實下降了一些。天然氣價格方面，我們看到它上升到大約 2.50 美元左右，之後又回落，現在又回到 2 美元中段到高 2 的區間。我們希望看到它高於 2.80 美元，這樣——公用事業的經濟性才會真正成立，才會開始燃燒更多煤。我對 11 月合約以及我們看到的 2021 年遠期曲線感到非常鼓舞，因為它在 3 美元以上，這相當令人振奮。所以希望這種情況能持續，我們預期在新的一年——以及第四季後半段的 Q4——能運送更多煤。

On the export side, start with met. Met right now is -- it's actually about 75% of our export portfolio. It used to be about 60%. It was about 60-40, 65-35, but now it's about 75 met, 25 thermal. Most of that met has gone to Europe, about 55%, 30% to Asia. The benchmarks, as you know, have been challenged. We saw some restocking in the quarter in India and Brazil. Unfortunately, the Chinese quotas on Australian coal have been a headwind as that's keeping the benchmark prices low and it's offsetting some of the outputs for our U.S. coal. So we've had some issues there, coupled with the monsoon season. And obviously, the COVID situation has really impacted industrial production worldwide. So -- but mostly, the met side of the business has really been a price story more than a volume story.

在出口方面，先從冶金煤（met）談起。冶金煤目前——實際上約占我們出口組合的 75%。以前大約是 60%。當時大概是 60-40、65-35，但現在大約是 75% 冶金煤、25% 動力煤。這些冶金煤大多運往歐洲，約 55%，另有 30% 運往亞洲。如你所知，基準價格一直面臨壓力。我們在本季看到印度與巴西有一些補庫存。不幸的是，中國對澳洲煤的配額一直是逆風，因為這使基準價格維持在低位，並抵消了我們美國煤的一部分出貨量。因此那裡出現了一些問題，再加上季風季節的影響。當然，COVID 的情勢確實衝擊了全球工業生產。所以——但整體而言，冶金煤業務更多是一個價格故事，而不是一個量的故事。

Different on the thermal side, it's really been a volume story. Our thermal coal, about 75% of that thermal coal goes to Asia, mostly India, but some to Morocco as well. No longer any coal going to Europe, which used to be a big outlet for us, but we have no thermal coal going to Europe these days. API2 has been a headwind, it was under $60 for the quarter. India, the COVID situation in India really impacted a lot of the volumes there. However, things are picking up, and we should see some increased volumes in the fourth quarter, and we'll see what happens as the COVID situation plays itself out going into next year.

動力煤方面則不同，這真的更多是一個量的故事。我們的動力煤中，約 75% 會運往亞洲，主要是印度，但也有一部分到摩洛哥。如今已沒有煤運往歐洲；歐洲過去曾是我們的重要去處，但這些日子我們沒有任何動力煤運往歐洲。API2 一直是逆風，本季低於每噸 60 美元。印度的 COVID 情勢確實影響了那裡的許多出貨量。不過情況正在回升，我們應該會在第四季看到一些增加的出貨量；至於進入明年後 COVID 情勢如何發展，我們再觀察。

At the beginning of the year, we provided some guidance on our export coal. We said we were going to be somewhere around 30 -- low 30s million tons for 2020. My best guess right now is we'll be right at 30 million tons for the year.

在年初，我們對出口煤提供了一些指引。我們表示 2020 年大約會在 3,000 萬噸出頭、低 3,000 萬噸的區間。我目前最好的估計是，今年全年我們大概會正好在 3,000 萬噸左右。

Our next question is from Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Jordan Alliger。

Yes. I know you've talked about sort of the lasting efficiencies and the structural changes. Maybe I missed it a little, but I was wondering if you could perhaps give some further examples of what some of these changes are that has allowed metrics such as cars processed per hour do so well or even frankly, just keeping headcount flat while volumes sort of a surge here sequentially. So I know you talked about the structural changes, I'm assuming as with the operating plan and things along those lines. But to the extent you provide some additional color around that would be great.

是的。我知道你們談到一些持久性的效率提升與結構性變革。我可能有點漏聽，但我想請問你是否可以再舉一些例子，說明究竟是哪些改變，讓像是「每小時處理車輛數」這類指標表現這麼好；或者坦白說，在出貨量按季出現這種躍升時，仍能把人頭數維持持平。我知道你提到結構性變革，我猜是與營運計畫之類的事情有關。但如果你能就此再補充一些細節會很棒。

Sure. Thanks for the question, Jordan. I guess some of the easiest ways I can put it is we're constantly analyzing the plan. So this is -- you think about the car switch per man hour. I go out with a number of my team members and we take a look at different terminals and we question what we do and how we do it and change the way we do things. Just because that's the way it's always been done doesn't mean that's how you do it. And those are kind of the guidelines when you think of scheduled railroading, so we're -- some yards you may have switched cars one way. We've been able to find different ways of switching cars that made them more efficient. And I mean that's an ongoing process that we're always going through.

當然。謝謝你的問題，Jordan。我想最簡單的說法之一是：我們一直在分析營運計畫。所以——你想想「每人時的調車量」。我會和團隊中的一些成員到不同的場站去看，我們會質疑我們做什麼、怎麼做，並改變做事方式。僅僅因為過去一直是這樣做，並不代表就應該這樣做。這些就是你在思考定期化鐵路營運（scheduled railroading）時的指導原則。所以——有些編組場你可能原本用某一種方式調車。我們已經能找到不同的調車方式，使其更有效率。我的意思是，這是一個我們一直在進行的持續流程。

When you think about a network as complicated as CSX can be, we have cut hundreds of terminals and yards in different areas where we switch box cars, we probably have some of the greatest opportunity to make those changes and continue to make those changes as we move forward. And then when you think about the service plan with respect to growing our train size, well, we said it earlier that we were blessed when we got here 3.5 years ago that we have a plant that was built beyond what it needed to be, and it wasn't necessarily being run in a PSR method. So we have been able to increase our train sizes, move traffic better. And when you think about our train miles, we've reduced our train miles significantly just by moving traffic in a better pattern.

當你想到像 CSX 這麼複雜的網路，我們在不同地區已裁撤了數百個場站與編組場，在那些地方我們會進行棚車（box cars）的調車；我們大概擁有一些最大的機會去做這些改變，並在未來持續推動這些改變。再者，當你從服務計畫的角度思考、例如擴大列車編組長度時——我們先前也提過，我們在 3.5 年前來到這裡時很幸運，因為我們擁有一個建設規模超出需求的資產基礎，但它不一定是以 PSR 的方式在運作。因此我們得以增加列車編組規模、讓運輸更順暢。再看看我們的列車里程，我們僅僅透過以更好的路徑模式移動貨流，就已大幅降低列車里程。

So as we continue to find those opportunities and they're still out there, we still find them each and every day. The team is evolving every day with respect to how our plan works and how scheduled railroading continues to develop those different efficiencies. You're going to -- there's more and more opportunities as we continue forward to find those opportunities to move things better, quicker and more reliable for our customers.

因此，隨著我們持續發掘這些機會——而且它們仍然存在——我們每天都還在找到。團隊每天都在演進，關於我們的計畫如何運作，以及定期化鐵路營運如何持續帶來不同的效率提升。你會看到——隨著我們繼續往前走，會有越來越多機會，讓我們能以更好的方式、更快且更可靠地為客戶移動貨物。

Our next question is from Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

I know you spent a lot of time on the sustainable operations, and you have this slide you added the ESG recognition. Mark, as you're talking to customers and when we think about this, is this just a nice-to-have for us right now, maybe some investors open up a new investor base? Or is this really starting to move the needle in your conversations with customers as it relates to their total freight wallet? Or are those conversations still just service price?

我知道你們在永續營運上花了很多時間，而且你們新增了這張 ESG 認可的投影片。Mark，當你與客戶對談、我們思考這件事時，這目前對我們來說只是「有也不錯」——也許能讓一些投資人、開拓新的投資人基礎？還是說，這已經開始在你與客戶的對話中產生實質影響，關係到他們整體的貨運支出份額（total freight wallet）？或者那些對話仍然只是服務與價格？

Excellent question. No, I think ESG has really gone from a talking point to having a real-world impact now, especially with our customers. And so several of our customers and several negotiations, sitting down and really peeling back and showing them everything that we have done in CSX over the last number of years. We've been a leader in this ESG space for a very long time. And as Jim said in his opening remarks, we're very proud of our leadership position there and being recognized by The Wall Street Journal and other Dow Jones Sustainability Index and others. And we're opening up, having those discussions with customers and showing them that.

很好的問題。不，我認為 ESG 已經從一個談資，轉變為現在具有真實世界影響力的因素，尤其是在我們的客戶端。因此，我們與多位客戶、在多場談判中坐下來，真正深入拆解並向他們展示 CSX 在過去多年所做的一切。我們在 ESG 領域領先已久。正如 Jim 在開場致詞中所說，我們對自己在那裡的領導地位，以及獲得《華爾街日報》、道瓊永續指數（Dow Jones Sustainability Index）等機構的認可感到非常自豪。我們正在開啟並進行這些與客戶的討論，並向他們展示這些成果。

Clearly, our safety performance is a big discussion there as well. And I can tell you, one of the major, major contracts that came up for bid this year, one of the big factors was -- that really won us the business was on -- was around ESG and safety. And Jamie and I spent a lot of time with this customer, talking about these things, and it's having a real impact.

很明顯地，我們的安全績效也是其中一個重要的討論點。我可以告訴你，今年有一個非常非常重要的合約進入招標，其中一個關鍵因素——真正讓我們贏得這筆業務的——就是 ESG 與安全。Jamie 和我花了很多時間與這位客戶討論這些事情，而這正在產生實質影響。

I would tell you also, as customers look and especially some of the big shippers out there, retail shippers, as they look to their efficiency targets and their targets to -- mission targets, taking trucks off the highway, given all the efficiencies that Jim talked about are real, and they can move more traffic on CSX and take trucks off the highway. That clearly leads to them achieving a lot of their efficiency metrics. And so real-world impact, real-world negotiations, and it's paying off, specifically in many deals that we've looked at this year.

我也想說，當客戶在看——尤其是一些大型託運人、零售託運人——他們在檢視自身的效率目標與使命目標時，例如讓卡車離開高速公路；考量到 Jim 談到的所有效率提升都是真實存在的，他們可以把更多貨流放到 CSX 上運輸，並讓卡車離開高速公路。這顯然有助於他們達成許多效率指標。因此，這是實際的世界影響、實際的談判，而且正在帶來回報，特別是在我們今年所評估的許多交易中。

Next question is from David Vernon with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 David Vernon。

Mark, I wanted to talk a little bit about intermodal and what you see in the pipeline over the next 3 years that's going to put you guys in less of a position to maybe take what the truck market gives you and more of a position to maybe improve the product either at an infrastructure level or a channel level, like as you think about what you guys are investing in the intermodal side. What is it that's in the pipeline that you're excited about that's going to get you maybe a little bit better than market growth in that market?

Mark，我想談談聯運（intermodal），以及你們在未來 3 年的案源（pipeline）中看到了什麼，能讓你們不再那麼被動地「接受卡車市場給你什麼」，而是更能主動改善產品——不論是在基礎設施層面或通路層面——例如當你思考你們在聯運端的投資時。你們的案源中有哪些讓你感到興奮、能讓你們在那個市場中做到可能略優於市場成長的事情？

Yes. So let me talk about the market, and then I'll ask Jamie to talk about some of the efficiencies that they're working on in the terminals because his group has the intermodal terminals. And so, listen, we really like -- we love the intermodal business. We think there's a lot of growth. And as I've said before, I think this is -- this intermodal space is one where we can continue to grow faster than the economy repeatedly every year. And so we're doing a lot of different things, working on a lot of new different products with customers, looking to take more share off the highway, really talk about the benefits of intermodal. We have a lot of customers out there, and we're working with them in the different shippers on the benefits of converting that freight. E-commerce is obviously having a very big impact on our business, and we like that business, and we think it's going to continue to grow here in the future. And so we're thinking differently about things that we need to do going forward and position ourselves to capture a lot of that e-commerce growth in the future.

好的。那我先談市場，然後我會請 Jamie 談談他們在場站端正在推動的一些效率提升，因為他的團隊負責聯運場站。首先，聽著，我們非常喜歡——我們熱愛聯運業務。我們認為它有很大的成長空間。正如我之前說過的，我認為——聯運這個領域是我們可以持續、年復一年地以高於經濟成長的速度成長的地方。因此我們正在做很多不同的事情：與客戶合作開發許多新的不同產品，尋求從公路上取得更多市占，真正去談聯運的好處。我們有很多客戶，我們也正與他們、以及不同的託運人合作，討論把貨物轉換到聯運的好處。電子商務顯然對我們的業務有非常大的影響，我們喜歡這塊業務，也認為它未來仍會持續成長。因此，我們正在以不同的方式思考未來需要做的事情，並讓自己站在有利位置，以在未來掌握大量的電商成長。

With that, Jamie, do you want to talk about the efficiencies in the terminals?

那麼，Jamie，你想談談終端的效率嗎？

Yes. Our terminals, again, we've got terminals that were, I think, probably overbuilt for the time when they're built, and we're actually getting to utilize them to a maximum of gut. An unbelievable intermodal team led by Marcelo Estrada and Scott Movshin and their team. They've been able to, over a number of years here, put automated cranes and technology with XGate, allowing truck drivers to flow freely in and out of our terminals, giving us opportunities to use GPS cranes to operate autonomously in some areas. So we've been able to bring our dwell times down over the past couple of years by -- from up over 24, 26 hours down to 15 to 14 hours in some circumstances of origin dwell. That's significant. When you turn your traffic over in these terminals, you gain space, you're able to handle more. And the traffic volume that's come our way, we haven't hit a bottleneck. We're definitely inviting more and more to come through the gate and looking forward to it.

是的。我們的終端，再次強調，我們有一些終端在建造當時，我想可能是超前配置、甚至有點過度建設，而我們現在其實正把它們的使用效益發揮到最大。由Marcelo Estrada與Scott Movshin帶領的跨式聯運團隊以及他們的團隊，表現令人難以置信。多年來，他們導入自動化起重機與XGate等技術，讓卡車司機能夠在我們的終端自由進出，並讓我們有機會在某些區域使用GPS起重機進行自主作業。因此，過去幾年我們已把停留時間（dwell time）降下來——從原本超過24、26小時，降到在某些情況下起點端停留時間可達15到14小時。這很顯著。當你在這些終端加快貨物流轉，你就能釋出空間、處理更多貨量。而面對流向我們的貨運量，我們尚未遇到瓶頸。我們確實歡迎越來越多的貨量通過閘口，也很期待。

Our next question comes from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自Morgan Stanley的Ravi Shanker。

Kevin, maybe to start off with you. You obviously have the high-quality problem of apparently having more cash than you know what to do with. So maybe you can share some of your thoughts on the M&A environment. You've seen some of your peers kind of make investments in infrastructure assets, both rail related and adjacent. So do you have any opportunities out there on this? And kind of do you expect to move on that anytime soon? And Jim, maybe as a follow-up on the ESG question. Obviously, very exciting and very encouraging to see that come up so much. But do you get a sense that shippers are looking to move from truck to rail on a structural basis? Or are they seeing rail as somewhat of a stop gap until we get to electrified trucks? I'm trying to figure out how do you make these ESG gains sticky.

Kevin，或許先從你開始。你顯然遇到一個高品質的問題：看起來你們的現金多到不知道該怎麼用。所以也許你可以分享一下你對併購（M&A）環境的看法。你看到一些同業在基礎設施資產上進行投資，包含與鐵路相關以及相鄰領域的資產。那你們在這方面是否有任何機會？以及你是否預期近期會採取行動？另外，Jim，作為ESG問題的追問。很明顯，看到這個議題被提到這麼多非常令人振奮、也很鼓舞。但你是否感覺到貨主正以結構性的方式，想把運輸從卡車轉向鐵路？還是他們把鐵路視為一種過渡方案，直到我們有電動卡車？我想弄清楚你們如何讓這些ESG成果具有黏著性、能持續下去。

Let me answer your second question first. Absolutely, it's significant -- it's a significant change when major, major customers, users of the logistics supply chain globally, begin to make public commitments to reducing their carbon footprint to be able to walk in the door and say, "I can help you do that." In fact, I might even be able to make -- get to your targets about like a decade early because I'm 75% cleaner than all these trucks you got running around out there, and I'm just as reliable. The good news was that we couldn't do that. If there was ESG 10 years ago or whatever, we weren't reliable enough, you wouldn't be able to have this kind of conversation. So the timing of our service offering coming together with a real, not just PR, but a real commitment globally to people that want to be able to do this is creating a lot of opportunity for us in all lines of our business. And we want to be is environmentally responsible as we can be. And so to the extent we move coal, people don't like that. But to the extent that we can be a huge player in other lines of business and be a facilitator for improvement from a client perspective, that's a great news for us.

我先回答你的第二個問題。絕對是的——當全球物流供應鏈中的大型、非常大型的客戶與使用者開始公開承諾要降低其碳足跡時，這是一個重大的改變；而我們能走進門說：「我可以幫你做到。」事實上，我甚至可能讓你們比目標提前大約十年達成，因為相較於你們外面跑的那些卡車，我們乾淨75%，而且同樣可靠。好消息是，以前我們做不到。如果十年前就有ESG之類的要求，我們的可靠性還不夠，你也不可能有這樣的對話。所以，我們的服務能力在這個時間點到位，正好遇上全球不只是公關層面、而是真正的承諾——人們想要做到這件事——這正在為我們所有業務線創造大量機會。我們也希望盡可能做到環境責任。因此，在我們運煤的部分，有些人不喜歡；但如果我們能在其他業務線成為重要玩家，並從客戶角度促成改善，那對我們來說就是非常好的消息。

I'll let Kevin follow up a little bit. But on the M&A issue, we've got a tremendous amount of -- as I said earlier, I can't remember what the reason for the question was. But from an M&A perspective, as it relates to rail, to the extent that we now have a common focus and a common purpose across the rail network as individual entities, it is opening up great opportunities for us to work together to further become more effective and efficient as we interchange traffic with one another as we do business with one another, as we understand our systems and we interchange for information with one another better than we did before, all with the sole purpose of being able to grow the business on a network basis.

我讓Kevin再補充一些。不過就併購（M&A）議題而言，我們擁有非常大量的——如我先前所說，我一時想不起來提問的原因是什麼。但從M&A角度、就鐵路相關而言，隨著我們現在在整個鐵路網路中、各個個體之間有了共同的焦點與共同的目的，這為我們創造了很好的機會，讓我們能更緊密合作：在彼此之間交接（interchange）貨流時更有效率、在彼此往來做生意時更有效率、在理解彼此系統並更好地交換資訊方面也比以前更好——所有這些都只有一個目的：以網路的角度來成長業務。

It creates the capabilities for the individual companies to achieve a lot of the benefits and the synergies that before everybody thought, "Well, the only way you can do that is go and spend a couple of hundred billion dollars to buy some other railroad." No, we don't look like it. We're much, much smarter than that -- than what we used to be. And so we're eagerly pursuing all of those kinds of opportunities today with the sole purpose because it makes us better competitors individually as individual railroad companies and as an industry.

這也讓各家公司具備能力去取得許多過去大家認為的效益與綜效；以前大家會想：「你要做到這些，唯一的方法就是花幾千億美元去買另一家鐵路公司。」不，我們看起來不需要那樣。我們比以前聰明得多——比我們過去的做法聰明得多。因此，我們今天正積極追求各種這類機會，唯一目的就是：讓我們作為個別鐵路公司、以及作為整個產業，都成為更強的競爭者。

Yes. To add to that, Ravi, I think you're right. In terms of our cash position today, we're in a position of strength. It gives us a lot of opportunity, first, to invest in our business. It's been exciting as we've gone through our capital program, we're still going through that for next year and the years ahead. We're finding some really good opportunities on some really high-return investments, and so that's going to be the first priority for our cash going forward. But as we sit here today, I would point out, we just spent a quarter where, if you look at it, intermodal, for the first time, contributed the most to our revenue profile and coal was the least in our history. So on a percentage of our revenue, coal was the least it's ever been and intermodal's been the best, and we did a 56.9%. Here we are in a position of strength, it gives us a lot of opportunity to invest in our railroad. And we'll look at anything that will strengthen our franchise over the next few years. So I'm excited about looking at those opportunities and driving value for us.

是的。Ravi，補充一下，我認為你說得對。就我們目前的現金部位而言，我們處於強勢位置。這給了我們很多機會，首先是投資我們的業務。當我們推進資本計畫時——我們仍在為明年以及未來幾年規劃——這個過程令人振奮。我們發現了一些非常好的機會，屬於高報酬投資，因此這將是我們未來現金運用的第一優先。但就今天而言，我想指出，我們剛結束的一個季度，如果你看數據，跨式聯運（intermodal）首次成為我們營收結構中貢獻最大的項目，而煤炭則是我們歷史上最低。也就是說，以營收占比來看，煤炭是史上最低，而跨式聯運是最好的；而我們做到56.9%。我們處於強勢位置，這讓我們有很多機會投資我們的鐵路。我們也會評估任何能在未來幾年強化我們特許經營（franchise）地位的事情。所以我很期待去看這些機會，並為我們創造價值。

Our next question is from Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital.

下一個問題來自RBC Capital的Walter Spracklin。

So I want to turn, Mark, if I could, to ask you about volume visibility. I know when the pandemic really hit in March, that visibility tightened up quite a bit and was difficult to see directionally which way volumes were going other than down at the early -- in the early period. And then, Jim, you mentioned, obviously, the big rebound. Mark, when you look at and speak to your customers now, how would you characterize that visibility? I know you touched a little bit on coal, you touched on intermodal with some of the opportunities there. Can you go through a few of the others and just directionally indicate whether that visibility is improving as you go into 2021 or is it really a coin toss here as to which direction it goes kind of on a broad segment-by-segment basis?

Mark，如果可以的話，我想轉向請教你關於貨量可視性（volume visibility）。我知道當疫情在3月真正爆發時，那種可視性收緊了很多，很難看出貨量方向會往哪裡走，除了在早期階段明顯是往下。然後，Jim，你提到很明顯出現了大幅反彈。Mark，當你現在與客戶溝通時，你會如何形容那種可視性？我知道你稍微談到煤炭，也談到跨式聯運的一些機會。你能否再談幾個其他品類，並從方向性上說明：進入2021年時，這種可視性是在改善，還是說在各主要分項上，基本上仍像擲硬幣一樣，方向難以判斷？

No. Thanks, Walter. Great question. I think, clearly, the visibility we had when the bottom fell out sort of in Q2 when the economy shut down. They didn't send notes to us or e-mails to us and saying, we're closing. It was kind of overnight, things just tanked. As things are coming back, our job has been -- and even while the pandemic was going on and the sales and marketing team were working from home, we made it a priority to stay close to our customers, check in on Zoom and Teams and all the fancy video conferencing technology. Everyone had laptops and computers at home and phones, and we made it a priority for them to stay close and really figure out to the best of what they could tell us, and then we could relay that information to Jamie and team, but it was a challenge for them to even know.

不。謝謝你，Walter。這是個好問題。我認為很明顯，當經濟在第二季（Q2）因封鎖而停擺、情勢崩落時，我們所擁有的可視性——他們並沒有寄便條或e-mail給我們說「我們要關閉了」。幾乎是一夜之間，事情就急轉直下。當情況開始回來時，我們的工作一直是——甚至在疫情仍在進行、銷售與行銷團隊在家工作時——我們把貼近客戶列為優先事項，透過Zoom、Teams以及各種先進的視訊會議技術保持聯繫。每個人在家都有筆電、電腦和電話，我們要求他們務必貼近客戶，盡其所能弄清楚客戶能告訴我們什麼，然後我們再把資訊轉達給Jamie和團隊，但即便對客戶而言，要掌握狀況也很具挑戰。

Things were so dynamic, things were changing so rapidly. It was very tough to pinpoint. And when the volumes came back, it was a snapback literally within days and weeks. And so it was very hard when we were -- our auto business was effectively, you'd open up the morning revenue report, and it was zeros. And then a week later, boom, the plants were reopening. And they said, we're going to 1 shift for probably for a month, and then we'll tell you when we're going to go to 2. And then a couple of days later, they say, we're going to 2 or 3 right away. And I was like, good one. So we had to react pretty quickly to that, and it was a challenge.

情勢非常動態、變化非常快速，真的很難精準掌握。而當貨量回來時，那是一種反彈（snapback），幾乎在幾天、幾週內就發生。所以當時非常難應對——我們的汽車業務幾乎是，你打開早上的營收報表，看到的都是零。然後一週後，砰，工廠開始復工。他們說，我們可能先跑一個班一個月，之後再告訴你什麼時候會改成兩班。結果幾天後他們又說，我們要立刻改成兩班或三班。我心想，真有你的。所以我們必須非常快速地反應，這確實是個挑戰。

Two weeks ago, we had our fifth customer engagement forum. We did it usually, customers come here to Jacksonville for a day or so, where we talk to them about what's going on in the markets and their business and share ideas. We did this by Zoom meeting. And we spent a lot of time -- Jim was there and myself and Jamie, and really listening to a lot of their questions and their views on what we think is probably is going to happen -- likely to happen. And I would say, most are cautiously optimistic as we head into the back half of Q4 and into 2021.

兩週前，我們舉辦了第五次客戶互動論壇。我們通常都是這麼做的：客戶會來傑克遜維爾待上一天左右，我們與他們討論市場與其業務的最新狀況並分享想法。這次我們改以 Zoom 會議進行。我們花了很多時間——Jim 在場，我也在，Jamie 也在——真正去聆聽他們許多問題，以及他們對於我們認為可能會發生、很可能會發生之事的看法。我會說，當我們進入第四季後半段並邁向 2021 年時，多數人都抱持審慎樂觀。

There's visibility in some markets. And clearly, intermodal, we know what's happening there, and we've got some pretty good visibility. We talk to our channel partners and the ports and our international steamship lines. And clearly, there's -- they're seeing a lot of strength in those markets, and the best visibility they have now is we see continued strength and replenishment beyond Chinese New Year and deep into Q1, as I said earlier. So from that perspective, good. Coal, I talked about a little bit earlier and more we rehash that. But clearly, markets are dynamic there, and we'll see what happens with natural gas domestically, but the world markets clearly have an impact on our export business.

在某些市場是有能見度的。而且很明顯地，就聯運而言，我們知道那邊正在發生什麼，我們也有相當不錯的能見度。我們會與我們的通路夥伴、港口以及國際遠洋航運公司溝通。顯然，他們在那些市場看到很強的力道，而他們目前最佳的能見度是：如我先前所說，我們看到在農曆新年之後仍將持續走強並補庫存，且一路延伸到第一季深處。因此從那個角度來看，是好的。煤炭方面，我先前稍微談過，也不再多重複。但很明顯地，那裡的市場是動態的；我們將觀察美國國內天然氣的走勢會如何，但全球市場顯然會影響我們的出口業務。

And for merchandise, I mean a lot of people are watching what's going on. There still remains many risks, right? The pandemic, what's going to happen with the pandemic. There's other geopolitical factors that we're monitoring extremely closely. The election that's coming up in a couple of weeks. Government stimulus, as I said, the effects of the pandemic and on their workers and everyone is watching that. I mean we're heading into the fall and into the winter, and people are concerned if the case will spike again, will they be able to continue producing. And then the health of the overall economy and what's that going to look like as we head into the end of the year and into next year.

至於一般貨物（merchandise），我的意思是很多人都在關注正在發生的事情。仍然存在許多風險，對吧？疫情，以及疫情接下來會怎麼發展。還有其他我們正極為密切監控的地緣政治因素。再過幾週就要到來的選舉。政府刺激措施，如我所說，疫情的影響以及對他們員工的影響，所有人都在看。我是說，我們正進入秋季並邁向冬季，人們擔心病例是否會再次飆升、他們是否能夠持續生產。然後是整體經濟的健康狀況，以及當我們走向年底並進入明年時，那會呈現什麼樣貌。

So visibility is murky. There's -- it's been a challenging year, probably something that none of us have ever seen in our careers before. But our job is to continue to stay close and provide as much clarity as we can to Jamie and the team so that we're prepared to handle the freight when it comes back.

所以能見度是模糊不清的。這——這是一個充滿挑戰的一年，可能是我們職涯中從未見過的情況。但我們的工作是持續貼近市場，並盡可能為 Jamie 和團隊提供更多清晰度，讓我們在貨運回來時做好準備來承接。

Our last question is from Jason Seidl with Cowen.

我們最後一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Jason Seidl。

Yes. And guys, I appreciate the opportunity to back clean up here. Jim, you mentioned something that intrigued me. You mentioned about railroads now working more together than they have in the past. I was wondering if you can give us some examples of what you guys are doing now. And also, do you see more of that in the future as some of your other partners go more through the life cycle of PSR?

是的。各位，我很感謝有機會在這裡做最後補充。Jim，你提到一件讓我很感興趣的事。你提到現在鐵路公司彼此合作的程度比過去更高。我想請你舉一些你們目前正在做的例子。另外，當你們其他合作夥伴在 PSR 的生命週期中走得更深入時，你是否預期未來會看到更多這樣的合作？

Sure. Well, yes, Jamie might be able to jump in, in a little bit. Exactly, again, basically, we have or have had a group of individuals that work together for years and years and years and built this model to more efficiently and effectively and reliably runs a railroad company. And they are now, in one way, shape or another, having a significant influence on how those companies operate. And we're -- we think of ourselves, obviously, as stand-alone entities, but we want to work together from an industry perspective so that we can grow the business. Not about forcing unnatural gateways to move traffic farther and out of route, so maybe you can make an extra $12.50 per car by hauling something 500 miles longer. And at the end of the day, when you have business practices like that, you drive all business off the rail and it moves by truck. So at the end of the day, with a narrow focus like that, you shrink and shrink and shrink and shrink and shrink and cut and cut and cut and shrink and shrink. So we're all about growing the business and to grow the business by working together as a network. 50% of the business originates on somebody else or terminates on somebody else, so I'm not an island.

當然。嗯，是的，Jamie 也許稍後可以補充一下。沒錯，再次說明，基本上，我們有、或曾有一群人多年多年多年一起合作，建立了這個模式，讓鐵路公司運作得更有效率、更有效能、也更可靠。而他們現在以某種形式，正在對那些公司的營運方式產生重大影響。我們——我們當然把自己視為獨立的個體，但我們希望從產業角度一起合作，這樣我們才能成長業務。不是去強迫不自然的轉運關口（gateway），讓貨流走得更遠、繞路，只是為了也許每車多賺 12.50 美元，因為你把某些貨多拖了 500 英里。到頭來，當你有那樣的商業作法時，你會把所有業務都趕離鐵路，轉而改走卡車。所以最終，若只聚焦在那樣狹隘的目標上，你就會一縮再縮、一縮再縮、一縮再縮，然後一砍再砍、一砍再砍，繼續縮、繼續縮。所以我們的重點是成長業務，而成長業務的方式就是作為一個網路一起合作。50% 的業務是在別人那裡起運或在別人那裡到達，所以我不是一座孤島。

And so I think that's the MO going forward. And it's not a foreign concept. When you talk to the other railroad executives, whether it's me, whether Jamie or Mark or whether it's anybody else in the organization, there is a much greater sense of urgency and a much greater focus on customer service than I think there has been in the past. And hopefully that not only continues, but hopefully we begin to get better and better and better at that so we can become more relevant in transportation marketplace and grow what -- today, the overall share of our transportation spend is very, very small. So we want to get bigger.

因此我認為這就是未來的運作方式（MO）。而且這並不是什麼陌生的概念。當你與其他鐵路高層交談，不論是我、不論是 Jamie 或 Mark，或是組織中的任何人，都能感受到相較於過去，對客戶服務有更強的急迫感與更高的聚焦。也希望這不僅能持續下去，還希望我們在這方面能越做越好、越做越好、越做越好，讓我們在運輸市場中更具相關性，並擴大成長——因為就今天而言，我們在整體運輸支出中的占比非常、非常小。所以我們想要變得更大。

Just -- I think Jim nailed it down. When you have a partner that thinks like you and acts like you, it sure makes it a whole lot easier to do business with them. Always, we had issues over the years with interchange points. Traffic would get locked up there. Customers didn't have visibility between railroad and railroad. So as we continue to have partners around us who are getting better and better at what they do, it makes a big difference for our customers, and it helps to grow the industry. So it's exciting to work with some of the western roads who are really starting to come around and work with us. And of course, the Canadians know the game, so it makes a big difference when we can all flow together.

我補充一下——我認為 Jim 說得很到位。當你有一個思維方式跟你一樣、行事方式也跟你一樣的合作夥伴時，跟他們做生意確實會容易很多。多年來，我們在交接點（interchange points）一直都有問題。貨流會在那裡卡住。客戶在一家鐵路到另一家鐵路之間缺乏可視性。因此，隨著我們周邊的合作夥伴在他們所做的事情上越來越好，這會為我們的客戶帶來很大的差異，也有助於推動產業成長。所以能與一些西部鐵路合作、他們真的開始跟上並與我們合作，這令人振奮。當然，加拿大的業者很懂這套玩法，所以當我們能夠一起順暢流動時，差異就非常大。

And this does conclude today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation on today's call, and you may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的電話會議，現在您可以掛斷線路。

Thank you, everyone, for participating.

謝謝各位的參與。