CSX Corporation (CSX) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q1 2021 CSX Corporation Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Bill Slater, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

大家好，感謝您稍候，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2021 年第一季（Q1 2021）財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 現在我想把會議交給今天的發言人——投資人關係主管 Bill Slater。請開始。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me on today's call are Jim Foote, President and Chief Executive Officer; Kevin Boone, Chief Financial Officer; and Jamie Boychuk, Executive Vice President of Operations. On Slide 2 is our forward-looking disclosure, followed by our non-GAAP disclosure on Slide 3.

謝謝，各位下午好。今天與我一同參與電話會議的有：總裁暨執行長 Jim Foote；財務長 Kevin Boone；以及營運執行副總裁 Jamie Boychuk。簡報第 2 頁為前瞻性聲明揭露，接著第 3 頁為非 GAAP（Non-GAAP）揭露。

With that, it's my pleasure to introduce, President and Chief Executive Officer, Jim Foote.

接下來，我很榮幸介紹總裁暨執行長 Jim Foote。

Great. Thanks so much, Bill, and welcome to everyone joining us on today's call. I want to begin by thanking all of CSX's railroaders for the hard work and the exceptional efforts they've made to keep the yards open and the terminals open to serve our customers throughout the severe weather we experienced this quarter, an amazing job. We entered this year cautiously optimistic about the potential for an improving economic environment, and I am pleased to see momentum steadily building over the last few months. Throughout the quarter, we remained focused on laying the foundations to prepare for growth, and I'm excited about our prospects for the rest of the year. It's nice to finally have an economic tailwind at our backs.

很好。非常感謝你，Bill，也歡迎各位參加今天的電話會議。我想先感謝所有 CSX 的鐵路同仁，在本季我們遭遇嚴峻天候期間，仍努力不懈並付出卓越的努力，讓調車場與終端站持續運作以服務客戶，表現非常出色。我們以審慎樂觀的態度進入今年，期待經濟環境有機會改善，而我很高興看到過去幾個月動能穩步增強。整個季度，我們持續專注於打好基礎、為成長做準備，我也對今年剩餘時間的前景感到振奮。終於能感受到經濟順風在背後推動，確實令人欣慰。

Let's begin with Slide 5 of the presentation for an overview of our first quarter financial results. Earnings per share decreased 7% to $0.93, and the first quarter operating ratio increased to 60.9%, reflecting a spike in COVID cases early in the quarter, winter storm impacts, and fuel surcharge timing lag.

我們先從簡報第 5 頁開始，概覽第一季財務結果。每股盈餘下滑 7% 至 0.93 美元；第一季營業比率上升至 60.9%，反映本季初 COVID 病例激增、冬季風暴影響，以及燃油附加費時點落後的因素。

Turning to Slide 6. Revenue declined 1% on 1% volume growth, as intermodal and other revenue growth was more than offset by merchandise, coal and fuel surcharge revenue declines. Merchandise revenue declined 6% led by declines in automotive and energy-related shipments within the chemicals and minerals segments. These declines were partially offset by growth in the metals and fertilizers businesses. Intermodal revenue grew 11%, reaching new first quarter record levels. This growth was driven by strong demand for transportation services due to continued inventory replenishments and growth from East Coast ports. Coal revenue decreased 5%. Domestic coal revenue increased due to growth in utility coal shipments. This growth was more than offset by declines in export coal, primarily from reduced international shipments of thermal coal. Other revenue increased 42%. The largest driver of this increase was higher revenue from storage at intermodal facilities.

接著看第 6 頁。營收在運量成長 1% 的情況下下滑 1%，因為聯運及其他營收的成長，仍不足以抵銷一般貨運、煤炭與燃油附加費營收的下滑。一般貨運營收下滑 6%，主要由汽車以及化學品與礦物品類中與能源相關的出貨量下降所帶動。上述下滑部分被金屬與肥料業務的成長所抵銷。聯運營收成長 11%，創下第一季新高紀錄。此成長來自運輸服務需求強勁，原因包括持續的庫存回補，以及東岸港口帶來的成長。煤炭營收下滑 5%。國內煤炭營收因公用事業煤炭出貨成長而增加。但此成長被出口煤炭下滑所抵銷，主要因國際動力煤出貨量減少。其他營收成長 42%。此增幅最大的驅動因素是聯運設施的倉儲收入提高。

Turning to Slide 7. We remain committed to being the safest railroad. With fewer recent COVID cases across the network, we are able to increase the number of in-person interactions and training sessions. We resumed hosting safety summits across the network and are even expanding these summits to cover additional crafts beyond our T&E workforce. Our top concern is eliminating life-changing events. And through increased engagement on critical rules compliance, we have seen a reduction in injury severity to start the year.

接著看第 7 頁。我們仍致力於成為最安全的鐵路公司。隨著整個網路近期 COVID 病例減少，我們得以增加面對面互動與訓練課程的次數。我們已恢復在全網舉辦安全高峰會，並且進一步擴大範圍，涵蓋除運輸與引擎（T&E）人員之外的更多工種。我們最關切的是消除足以改變人生的重大事件。透過在關鍵規章遵循上的更高參與度，我們在年初已看到傷害嚴重程度下降。

Continued education and training will allow us to further reduce the total number of injuries by working with both managers and frontline employees on how to identify and eliminate unsafe behavior across the railroad. Additionally, we're finding new ways to improve safety through the increased use of technology. We are increasing drone usage to help ensure the safe movement of trains throughout our yards and are already seeing the benefits of this program in the positive train accident trends. We will look to expand these programs going forward as part of our ongoing efforts to identify and implement new tools to help us operate as safely as possible.

持續的教育與訓練，將使我們能與管理人員及第一線員工合作，進一步降低受傷總數，學習如何辨識並消除整個鐵路系統中的不安全行為。此外，我們也透過更廣泛運用科技，尋找提升安全的新方法。我們正增加無人機的使用，以協助確保列車在調車場內安全運行，且已在列車事故趨勢改善上看到此計畫的效益。未來我們將擴大這些計畫，作為持續努力的一部分，以辨識並導入新工具，協助我們以最高安全標準營運。

On Slide 8, let's review our operating performance for the quarter. Despite challenging conditions, the team did a good job of maintaining network fluidity throughout the quarter. Going forward, we are focused on driving velocity and dwell back to pre-pandemic records, and we expect to see improvement in both metrics throughout the year. We also remained focused on driving additional efficiencies across the network. We set a new record for distributed powertrains, averaging over 100 trains a day for the first time. Labor productivity also reached a new record. Even though we are adding headcount in the second quarter in preparation for the expected volume growth, we still plan to realize incremental labor productivity this year.

在第 8 頁，我們回顧本季的營運表現。儘管條件充滿挑戰，團隊仍在整個季度維持網路順暢性方面做得很好。展望未來，我們專注於將速度與停留時間（dwell）推回疫情前的紀錄水準，並預期這兩項指標在今年將逐步改善。我們也持續專注於推動全網更多效率提升。我們在分散式動力列車（distributed powertrains）方面創下新紀錄，首次平均每日超過 100 班列車。勞動生產力也創下新高。即使我們在第二季為預期的運量成長而增加人力編制，我們仍計畫在今年實現額外的勞動生產力提升。

Turning to Slide 9. I wanted to take the opportunity to frame these recent operating metrics against where we started this transformation. Over this period, we have increased velocity more than 30% by reducing both line of road congestion and creating excess capacity within yards to limit how long fluid train sit idle. While dwell has also improved over this period, we view this metric as an area of opportunity. Even though CSX is currently -- has the lowest dwell in the industry, pushing this number back towards previous record levels will enable us to further reduce cars online and improve asset utilization.

接著看第 9 頁。我想藉此機會，將近期營運指標與我們啟動這項轉型時的起點做對照。在這段期間，我們透過降低正線壅塞並在調車場建立多餘容量，以縮短順暢列車（fluid train）閒置時間，使速度提升超過 30%。雖然停留時間在此期間也有所改善，但我們仍將此指標視為可進一步提升的機會。即使 CSX 目前——在業界擁有最低的停留時間，將此數字推回先前的紀錄水準，將使我們能進一步降低線上車輛數並提升資產使用效率。

It is most important to note that this increased fluidity was enabled by redesigning the train plan to operate as a more balanced and efficient network. We are doing the same amount of work today with 1,500 fewer locomotives and dramatically improved locomotive utilization. These efforts have also driven significant improvements in fuel efficiency. Not only are we more fuel-efficient, but we have retired older, less efficient locomotives, and increased the use of distributed power and optimized our technologies to further expand the emission savings we offer our customers. Our train plant also greatly improves our crew productivity. One measure of this productivity is the total number of deadheads or the times we have -- or the time where we have to reposition crews using taxis or other vehicles because there isn't a return locomotive.

最重要的是要指出，這種更高的順暢性是透過重新設計列車運行計畫，使網路運作更均衡、更有效率而達成。我們如今以少了 1,500 台機車的情況下完成同樣的工作量，且機車使用效率大幅提升。這些努力也帶來燃油效率的顯著改善。我們不僅更省油，也已汰除較老、效率較差的機車，並增加分散式動力的使用、優化技術，以進一步擴大我們為客戶提供的減排效益。我們的列車運行計畫也大幅提升乘務員生產力。衡量此生產力的一項指標，是「空放」（deadheads）的總次數，也就是當沒有回程機車可用時，我們必須使用計程車或其他車輛來重新調度乘務員的次數或時間。

A balanced plan reduced the number of deadheads almost 60% by better matching crews and locomotives in both directions. We have also increased the number of cars processed per hour worked by over 30%. This higher throughput is due to both a reduction in yard congestion as well as more strategic upstream blocking of cars. Anyway, you look at the data, we have dramatically transformed how CSX operates, which has created the capacity to absorb significant growth for years to come. We remain focused on driving the network back to record performance levels as well as realizing the incremental efficiency benefits this will provide.

更均衡的計畫透過在雙向更好地匹配乘務員與機車，使空放次數降低近 60%。我們也將每工時處理的車輛數提高超過 30%。此更高的吞吐量來自調車場壅塞降低，以及更具策略性的上游編組（blocking）安排。無論從哪個角度看數據，我們都已大幅改造 CSX 的營運方式，並創造出可在未來多年吸收顯著成長的產能。我們仍專注於推動網路回到創紀錄的表現水準，同時實現由此帶來的額外效率效益。

Turning to Slide 10. I want to be clear that we are not done improving our network. The opportunities identified during the early stages of the pandemic last year continued to drive sustained efficiency improvements, and the more streamlined network is well positioned for growth. While this quarter's trip plan performance was negatively impacted by the winter storms and COVID-related absences, intermodal trip plan performance was still improved for the quarter and is currently running nearly 90%. We expect to see similar improvement trends for the carload business going forward. We are committed to providing our customers with an industry-leading service product and are proactively adding headcount and prepositioning locomotives across the network to ensure we are prepared to provide high-quality service while handling incremental volumes.

接著看第 10 頁。我想明確表示，我們尚未完成對網路的改善。去年疫情初期所辨識的機會，持續推動長期的效率提升，而更精簡的網路也已為成長做好準備。雖然本季的行程計畫（trip plan）表現受到冬季風暴與 COVID 相關缺勤的負面影響，但聯運的行程計畫表現本季仍有所改善，目前接近 90%。我們預期未來一般貨運（carload）業務也將出現類似的改善趨勢。我們致力於為客戶提供業界領先的服務產品，並正主動增加人力編制、在全網預先部署機車，以確保我們在處理新增運量的同時，仍能提供高品質服務。

I'll now let Kevin take us through the financials.

我現在把時間交給 Kevin，請他帶我們回顧財務表現。

Thank you, Jim, and good afternoon, everyone. The team is encouraged by the positive economic momentum. Underlying demand is growing, truckload capacity is tight and inventory levels are low. We are preparing the network for growth and focused on driving positive operating leverage. As Jim noted, we faced a challenging environment in the first quarter with winter storms and supply chain disruptions, creating headwinds both operationally and commercially.

謝謝你，Jim，各位下午好。團隊對正向的經濟動能感到振奮。基本需求正在成長，整車運能吃緊，庫存水位偏低。我們正為成長做好網路準備，並專注於推動正向的營運槓桿。如 Jim 所提，我們在第一季面臨具挑戰性的環境，冬季風暴與供應鏈中斷同時帶來營運與商業面的逆風。

Looking at the first quarter income statement on Slide 11. Revenue was down 1% despite a 1% increase in carloads. Double-digit gains in our intermodal business were offset by lower fuel recovery and declines across several merchandise markets. Other revenue was also up significantly, primarily reflecting increased intermodal storage fees. For the year, we expect other revenue of approximately $500 million. This assumes intermodal storage fees returned to more normalized levels. Total expenses increased 2% in the quarter.

我們來看投影片 11 的第一季損益表。儘管車皮裝載量（carloads）增加 1%，營收仍下滑 1%。我們聯運（intermodal）業務的兩位數成長，被較低的燃油回收（fuel recovery）以及多個一般貨運（merchandise）市場的下滑所抵銷。其他收入也大幅增加，主要反映聯運倉儲費（intermodal storage fees）提高。全年而言，我們預期其他收入約為 5 億美元。此預期假設聯運倉儲費回到較正常化的水準。本季總費用增加 2%。

Walking down the expense line items, labor and fringe was up 2%, driven by higher incentive compensation as well as inflation and other costs. The year-over-year increase in incentive compensation was largely due to our annual bonus program accrual as we lap the impact of the pandemic. Our long-term incentive comp costs also increased year-over-year as our growth outlook has continued to improve. Sequentially, we expect incentive comp in the second quarter to remain relatively flat based on our current outlook. Partially offsetting these headwinds, efficiency gains remain strong as T&E employee productivity was up nearly 10% and train length increased 13% to a first quarter record. Total headcount was down 7%, reflecting structural improvements made over the last year.

逐項看費用，勞工與附加福利（labor and fringe）增加 2%，主要由較高的獎勵性薪酬，以及通膨與其他成本所帶動。獎勵性薪酬的年增，主要來自我們年度獎金計畫的應計提列，因為我們已經度過疫情影響的比較基期。我們的長期獎勵薪酬成本也較去年增加，因為我們的成長展望持續改善。以季比來看，依據目前展望，我們預期第二季獎勵性薪酬將大致持平。部分抵銷這些逆風的是，效率提升仍然強勁：運輸與引擎（T&E）員工生產力提升近 10%，列車長度增加 13%，創第一季新高。總人數下降 7%，反映過去一年所做的結構性改善。

On a sequential basis, headcount was roughly flat, as increased T&E hiring was offset by improved labor productivity. Consolidation in our train plan has enabled a 23% reduction in locomotive maintenance headcount versus the prior year. We've also continued to drive efficiencies and yard support headcount, both through ongoing consolidation as well as technology. As you know, we are highly focused on ensuring we have adequate resources positioned to serve customer demand in a rebounding economy. We are actively recruiting and running conductor training classes and as a result, headcount should increase slightly going forward.

以季比來看，人數大致持平，因為增加的 T&E 招募被勞動生產力提升所抵銷。我們列車計畫的整併，使機車維修人力相較去年減少 23%。我們也持續透過持續整併與科技，提升效率並降低調車場支援人力。如各位所知，我們高度聚焦於確保在經濟復甦下，有足夠資源到位以滿足客戶需求。我們正積極招募並開辦列車長（conductor）訓練班，因此未來人數應會小幅增加。

MS&O expense increased 2% or $15 million in the first quarter driven by a $15 million headwind from lower real estate gains, while efficiency gains were offset by inflation and other items. As we run a tighter train plan, asset-related efficiency gains continue to headline MS&O savings. Despite weather-related headwinds and some proactive actions to pull assets out of storage in anticipation of higher demand, locomotive and terminal productivity levels continue to achieve record highs.

第一季 MS&O 費用增加 2% 或 1,500 萬美元，主要是因不動產處分利益較低帶來 1,500 萬美元逆風；效率提升則被通膨與其他項目所抵銷。隨著我們採行更精實的列車計畫，資產相關的效率提升持續成為 MS&O 節省的主要來源。儘管有天候相關逆風，以及為因應較高需求而主動將部分資產自封存中調出，機車與場站生產力水準仍持續創下歷史新高。

Real estate gains were minimal in the first quarter; however, as you likely saw, last week, we announced the closing of an agreement with Virginia to sell certain interest in CSX-owned line segments. This project will generate meaningful value for CSX and enhance the safety and reliability of both passenger and freight rail service in the D.C. and Virginia area. The transaction will result in a significant gain of approximately $350 million in the second quarter this year. Cash proceeds of $525 million will be realized over time. with approximately $400 million expected in 2021.

第一季不動產處分利益很少；不過如各位可能看到的，我們上週宣布已完成與維吉尼亞州的協議結案，出售 CSX 所擁有部分路段的特定權益。此專案將為 CSX 創造可觀價值，並提升華盛頓特區與維吉尼亞地區客運與貨運鐵路服務的安全性與可靠性。該交易預計將在今年第二季帶來約 3.5 億美元的重大處分利益。現金收入 5.25 億美元將於一段時間內逐步實現。其中約 4 億美元預計於 2021 年取得。

Turning now to fuel expense, which was $2 million favorable year-over-year. Record first quarter efficiency helped offset the impact of a 4% increase in the per gallon price. We continue to invest in technologies that will deliver further improvement in fuel efficiency. Widening the advantage that rails hold over truck and demonstrating our continued commitment to sustainability. Looking at other expenses. Depreciation increased $1 million in the quarter due to a larger asset base, partially offset by the 2020 road and track depreciation study. Reflecting these effects, going forward, we expect full year depreciation expense to increase approximately $20 million. Equipment rent expense increased $7 million or 9%, as network fluidity impacted car cycle times in the quarter.

接著看燃油費用，年比有利 200 萬美元。第一季創紀錄的效率，協助抵銷每加侖價格上漲 4% 的影響。我們持續投資可進一步提升燃油效率的技術。擴大鐵路相對卡車的優勢，並展現我們對永續發展的持續承諾。再看其他費用。折舊在本季增加 100 萬美元，主因資產基礎擴大，部分被 2020 年道路與軌道折舊研究所抵銷。綜合上述影響，展望未來，我們預期全年折舊費用將增加約 2,000 萬美元。設備租賃費用增加 700 萬美元或 9%，因本季網路流動性影響車輛周轉時間（car cycle times）。

Turning below the line. Interest expense improved $3 million or 2% due to a lower weighted average coupon. Other income decreased $2 million or 9% as favorable pension impacts were offset by lower interest on cash. Income tax expense decreased $12 million or 5% due to lower pretax income. The average tax rate increased slightly to 24.7% due to an unfavorable state legislative change. Closing out the income statement, CSX delivered operating income of $1.1 billion and a 60.9% operating ratio.

接著看業外項目。利息費用改善 300 萬美元或 2%，因加權平均票息較低。其他收入減少 200 萬美元或 9%，因有利的退休金影響被較低的現金利息收入所抵銷。所得稅費用減少 1,200 萬美元或 5%，因稅前所得較低。平均稅率因不利的州法變更而小幅上升至 24.7%。總結損益表，CSX 繳出 11 億美元的營業利益，以及 60.9% 的營業比率（operating ratio）。

Turning to the cash flow slide on 13. On the first quarter, free cash flow before dividends was $934 million, up 15% when compared to the first quarter of 2020. Free cash flow conversion on net income exceeded 100%. Finally, as you can see from the chart on the right, shareholder distributions rebounded in the quarter. Share repurchase activity returned to prior year levels, and the recent dividend increase is also reflected. We expect to continue to be opportunistic in our buyback approach going forward, and we remain committed to returning cash to shareholders.

接著看投影片 13 的現金流量。第一季在股利發放前的自由現金流為 9.34 億美元，較 2020 年第一季增加 15%。自由現金流對淨利的轉換率超過 100%。最後，如右側圖表所示，本季股東回饋已回升。庫藏股回購活動回到去年同期水準，近期股利調升也反映在其中。展望未來，我們預期將持續以機動方式進行回購，同時仍致力於將現金回饋給股東。

With that, let me turn it back to Jim for his closing remarks.

以上，我把時間交回給 Jim，請他做結語。

Great, Kevin. Thanks a lot. Concluding with Slide 15, we entered the year projecting volume growth in excess of GDP and still expect to achieve this target. We will continue to attract demand throughout the year and based on the combination of the strengthening economic outlook and our focus on converting additional volumes off the highway, we now expect to achieve double-digit full year revenue growth. We will drive incremental operating leverage by efficiently absorbing this growth, and we'll diligently monitor our train plan to address resources as needed to provide our customers with high-quality service.

很好，Kevin。非常感謝。以投影片 15 作結，我們在年初預估運量成長將高於 GDP，目前仍預期能達成此目標。我們將在全年持續吸引需求；基於經濟展望轉強，以及我們專注於將更多貨量自公路轉移過來的綜合因素，我們現在預期全年營收成長可達兩位數。我們將透過有效吸收這些成長來推動增量營運槓桿，並將審慎監控列車計畫，視需要調整資源，以為客戶提供高品質服務。

Our entire company is aligned to capture this growth opportunity and, as always, our focus is first and foremost on our customers and finding creative ways to help customers meet their own growth targets this year. Now is the time to capitalize all the work we have done to transform our network. Thank you. And now I'll turn it back to Bill for questions. And as you may have noted, Mark is unable to join the call again today. He continues to deal with a non-COVID personal health issue, but remains engaged in the business. The rest of the team will do the best to answer any marketing questions you may have.

我們全公司上下已對齊以掌握這個成長機會；一如既往，我們的首要重點始終是客戶，並以創新方式協助客戶在今年達成其自身的成長目標。現在正是把我們為轉型網路所做的一切工作成果加以發揮的時刻。謝謝。接下來我把時間交回給 Bill 進行問答。另外，如各位可能注意到的，Mark 今天無法再次加入電話會議。他仍在處理一項非 COVID 的個人健康問題，但仍持續參與業務。團隊其他成員將盡力回答各位可能提出的任何行銷相關問題。

Thank you, Jim. (Operator Instructions) With that, we will now take questions.

謝謝你，Jim。(接線員指示) 接下來我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) We have our first question coming from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

(接線員指示) 我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Ken Hoexter。

Jim, can you talk about the pace of growth and the employee ramp-up as you need -- you talked about the hiring in advance? And maybe the pace of expenses we should expect as we see that ramp up versus the revenue recognition as we move through the second half -- in the second quarter?

Jim，你能談談成長的速度，以及隨著需求而進行的人員擴編（ramp-up）嗎——你提到會提前招募？另外，當我們看到人員擴編時，相較於營收認列的節奏，尤其是進入下半年——在第二季——我們應該預期費用的節奏會是如何？

Great, Ken. Good question, and I'll ask Jamie or Kevin to add a little clarity as well. But generally, and you well know how long it takes for us to hire. So we've been at this since the beginning of the year and have been running people through their classes, which we couldn't do before because of the social distancing issues. And so we've been running people through the classes and now getting them out into the field, and they're starting to come out. And while we're reasonably well positioned, our numbers clearly have been impacted in the -- were impacted in the first quarter because we were struggling in certain areas across the railroad because of crew challenges. These people are becoming -- are coming now, and will be coming on throughout the second quarter at regular intervals as we again expect to see volume growth continue to increase now into the second and third quarter. Jamie, you want to give some more detail?

很好，Ken。好問題，我也會請 Jamie 或 Kevin 再補充說明、讓大家更清楚。但一般來說，你也很清楚我們招募人員需要多久時間。所以我們從年初就一直在做這件事，並讓人員參加訓練課程；先前因為社交距離的限制，我們無法這麼做。因此我們一直讓人員上課訓練，現在也開始把他們派到現場，他們正陸續到位。雖然我們的整體準備算是相當到位，但我們的數字顯然受到影響——第一季確實受到影響，因為在鐵路系統的某些區域，我們因為乘務人力的挑戰而吃緊。這些人現在正在到位，並且會在第二季以固定的節奏持續加入；因為我們預期運量成長會持續增加，並延續到第二季與第三季。Jamie，你要不要再補充一些細節？

Yes. No, absolutely. Ken, we're -- what we're seeing right now is every week as it stands, about 10 or 12 employees on the network that are qualifying as conductors. But while we've really bumped up our classes, as Jim has mentioned, just over the past couple of months, we're training anywhere from 60 to 90 new conductors depending on the month. Every 2 weeks, there's a new course, making sure that we follow all the protocol with those required within this COVID environment. And really, we're positioning the employees in areas where we need them. We still have furloughed employees around the company that aren't willing to leave the locations where they're at. And in our industry, when we hire somebody, you hire them for a certain location.

是的。不，完全同意。Ken，我們——目前看到的是，每週大約有 10 到 12 名員工在網路上完成列車長（conductor）的資格認證。但如 Jim 提到的，過去幾個月我們確實大幅增加了開班量；依月份不同，我們每月訓練約 60 到 90 名新的列車長。每兩週就有一個新班，並確保在這個 COVID 環境下遵循所有必要的流程規範。而且我們確實是在把員工配置到我們需要他們的地區。公司內仍有被資遣（furloughed）的員工，但他們不願意離開目前所在的地點。在我們這個產業，當你雇用一個人時，你是針對某個特定地點來雇用他。

You offer transfers, moves temporary or permanent, but it's up to the employee to make those decisions. So we will continue to hire as we said last quarter, 400, 500 folks here throughout the year. But really, we're going to hit that, I would say, as we enter into the second half. And we'll continue to hire if we see the business levels come to the point that we think they will, and we'll just keep adding those resources. So we've got a great position that really puts us in that spot where we're looking at growth.

你可以提供調動，不論是暫時或永久，但是否接受由員工自行決定。因此我們會如同上季所說，全年持續招募約 400、500 位同仁。但我會說，我們真正達到那個目標，大概會是在進入下半年時。而如果我們看到業務水準如我們所預期地提升，我們也會繼續招募，並持續增加這些資源。所以我們目前的布局非常好，讓我們處在一個可以迎接成長的位置。

Ken, the only other thing I would add is while we're going to add some employees that we saw overtime at a quite high level in the first quarter, and we would expect that number to come down over time as the hiring, so largely offsetting some of the incremental cost there.

Ken，我唯一想再補充的是：在我們增加一些員工的同時，第一季我們看到加班水準相當高；隨著招募到位，我們預期這個數字會隨時間下降，從而在很大程度上抵銷部分新增成本。

So offsetting some of the incremental cost per employee? Or is that incentive comp?

所以是抵銷每位員工的部分新增成本嗎？還是指獎勵性薪酬？

Yes, that's right. You'll probably see the highest quarter in terms of cost per employee this quarter.

是的，沒錯。就每位員工成本而言，你可能會看到本季是最高的一季。

Some of that's definitely related towards winter weather though on this quarter. It was a very difficult quarter, as Jim had mentioned, here with the polar vortex and the rest of it. So you're going to see those numbers come down.

不過其中一部分肯定也與本季的冬季天候有關。如 Jim 提到的，這一季非常艱難，因為有極地渦旋（polar vortex）以及其他因素。所以你會看到那些數字會下降。

We have our next question coming from the line of Allison Landry with Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 Allison Landry。

I just wanted to ask about the service metrics. I mean, obviously, you had the challenges of weather in Q1 and supply chains are quite clearly still in disarray. But Jim, you mentioned in your prepared remarks, you're expecting to get back to pre-COVID levels and record levels, how long do you think it will be before you guys can start to see some second derivative improvement at least in the velocity numbers and dwell? And do you think that with demand increasing and strengthening that it's going to take a few quarters? Just help us think through that.

我想問一下服務指標。我的意思是，很明顯第一季你們遇到天候挑戰，而供應鏈也顯然仍然相當混亂。但 Jim，你在事先準備的發言中提到，你們預期會回到 COVID 之前的水準，甚至回到創紀錄的水準；你認為還要多久，你們才能開始在速度（velocity）與停留時間（dwell）等數據上看到至少一些「二階」改善？你是否認為在需求增加、走強的情況下，可能需要幾個季度？請幫我們梳理一下。

In the intermodal area, as I said, we are back to our best industry-leading performance, I think, in terms of intermodal, in terms of -- our velocity is already up. But again, what we look at very closely is the trip plan compliance number, which takes everything into consideration. It doesn't do any good if you get the train across at a super high speed and then it sits at the terminal and can't get yard and you can't get the box off and the customer doesn't get it when he needs it. So everything has to come together, and that's what's reflected in this trip plan number. And in intermodal, there's zero cushion. It's not like, yes, we met the trip plan, but give or take a couple of hours. In intermodal, it's zero time. So we're back into the 90%, 90-plus percent on-time performance in our trip plans in intermodal today, which is, we were doing a little bit better than that a year ago in January late -- the year before.

在聯運（intermodal）方面，如我所說，我認為我們已回到業界領先、也是我們最佳的表現——就聯運而言、就——我們的速度其實已經提升。但我們非常密切關注的是「行程計畫遵循率」（trip plan compliance）這個指標，它把所有因素都納入考量。如果你把列車以超高速度跑完，但它在終端站又停著，無法進場、無法在場站處理、貨櫃（box）下不來，客戶也無法在需要的時間收到，那就沒有意義。所以所有環節都必須一起到位，而這正是這個行程計畫指標所反映的。而在聯運業務裡，幾乎沒有緩衝空間。不像說，是的，我們達成了行程計畫，但差個幾小時也算。在聯運裡，是零時間誤差。所以我們目前在聯運的行程計畫準點表現已回到 90%、90% 以上；而在去年一月——更早一年的那段時間——我們做得還稍微更好一些。

And I expect that number to continue to creep up quickly in the second quarter, if we catch a break and don't have some other kind of crazy weather events or something else. And then in the carload business, again, our numbers are in this kind of mid-60% on-time the trip plan performance range. And that relates to about 30% a couple of years ago. And we want to get that number back into the mid-80% range where it was. And my challenge there is to Jamie, is to get it done sooner than later. I'd like to see our velocity and dwell numbers get back to where they were kind of by the end of the second quarter, if possible. And then the trip plan numbers will start to come together as the year progresses. That puts the operating guys under a lot of pressure and -- but again, we're just getting back to where we are because once we're back to where we were, we're going to get better from there.

我預期如果我們運氣好一點，沒有再遇到其他瘋狂的天候事件或其他狀況，這個數字在第二季會持續快速上升。至於整車（carload）業務，我們的行程計畫準點表現大概在 60% 出頭的區間。而這相較於幾年前大約 30% 左右。我們希望把這個數字拉回到 80% 中段的區間，也就是以前的水準。我對 Jamie 的挑戰是要盡快完成，而不是拖到很晚。如果可能的話，我希望我們的速度與停留時間等數據能在第二季底左右回到先前的水準。接著，隨著年度推進，行程計畫的數字也會逐步到位。這會讓營運團隊承受很大壓力——但同樣地，我們只是回到原本的位置；因為一旦回到原本的水準，我們就能在此基礎上再變得更好。

We have our next question coming from the line of Justin Long with Stephens.

下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Justin Long。

So I wanted to ask about the OR. In the first quarter, I think intra-quarter, you talked about 100 basis points worse kind of year-over-year was your expectation, late in the quarter? Just curious what changed, if anything, in March relative to the reported number? And then going forward, the revenue guidance is very helpful, but anything you'd be willing to share on incremental margin targets as we look out over the rest of the year?

我想問一下 OR（營運比率）。第一季我記得你們在季內曾提到，按年比較你們的預期大概會差 100 個基點，尤其是在季末時？我想了解三月相較於最後公布的數字，有什麼改變（如果有的話）？另外往前看，營收指引非常有幫助，但就今年剩餘時間而言，你們是否願意分享一些增量利潤率（incremental margin）的目標？

Yes. In terms of the quarter, late in the quarter, we probably experienced a little bit more fuel surcharge lag than we were expecting, late in that quarter. Also, probably a little bit of aftereffects of the weather kind of creeped into the last couple of weeks of the March as well. And then finally, as we saw the prospects for additional volume acceleration into the back half and even into the second quarter, Jamie was proactive in pulling out the assets to get ready for that volume. So we saw probably a little bit extra cost there, which we thought was the right thing to do given everything we're seeing out there. So that's probably the difference between what Jim talked about at the conference and what we ultimately saw this quarter.

是的。就該季度而言，在季末我們可能遇到燃油附加費（fuel surcharge）落後（lag）的情況，比我們原先預期的更明顯一些。另外，天候的後續影響可能也在三月最後幾週稍微延續了進來。最後，當我們看到下半年、甚至第二季運量可能進一步加速的前景時，Jamie 很積極地主動把資產調出來，為那個運量做準備。因此我們可能看到一些額外成本；但就我們所看到的整體情況而言，我們認為那是正確的做法。所以這大概就是 Jim 在會議上談到的內容，與我們本季最終看到的結果之間的差異。

A lot of moving parts this quarter, obviously, with the impacts of the winter storms and then the revenue. Quite frankly, after January, we were looking at a very, very good quarter. And then obviously, February hit us hard, and March was digging ourselves out of it. In terms of incremental margins, look, as we've said last quarter and the previous quarters, as we get volume growth and revenue growth, we anticipate dropping that through at a positive incremental margins. So it will matter the pace of growth that we see. And if we continue to beat our expectations, I would expect OR to continue to beat our current estimates as well. So it's somewhat dependent on the strength of the revenue growth this year, which we obviously expect some strong performance. And if it continues to get better, you'll see the leverage in the model as well.

本季顯然有很多變動因素，包括冬季風暴的影響以及營收表現。坦白說，過了 1 月之後，我們原本預期會是一個非常、非常好的季度。但很明顯 2 月對我們打擊很大，而 3 月則是在把局面拉回來。就增量利潤率而言，如同我們在上季以及之前幾季所說，隨著運量成長與營收成長，我們預期這些成長會以正向的增量利潤率反映出來。因此，關鍵在於我們看到的成長速度。如果我們持續優於自身預期，我也預期 OR（營運比率）會持續優於我們目前的估計。所以這在某種程度上取決於今年營收成長的強度；我們顯然預期會有不錯的表現。而如果情況持續改善，你也會在模型中看到槓桿效應。

We have our next question coming from the line of Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Tom Wadewitz。

Jim, I wanted to see if you could offer some thoughts on perhaps -- your first quarter earnings is compelling, but there was another topic earlier today, you probably noticed. What might be the impact to you guys from a Canadian railroad buying KSU? Is it -- does that matter much? I mean I don't think you've interchange a lot of traffic with KSU, but how would we think about that? And I don't know if you have any kind of broader thoughts on whether that potentially could be a catalyst for a greater focus in the industry on bigger consolidation?

Jim，我想請你談談一些看法——你們第一季的獲利表現很有說服力，但今天稍早還有另一個話題，你可能也注意到了。加拿大鐵路公司收購 KSU，對你們可能會有什麼影響？這件事——影響大嗎？我的意思是，我不認為你們和 KSU 有很多交會（interchange）的貨流，但我們該如何看待這件事？另外我也想知道，你是否有更廣泛的看法：這是否可能成為促使產業更聚焦於更大規模整併的催化劑？

Well, we've certainly looked at -- yes, thanks, Tom. We certainly had an opportunity now over the -- like I said, last month or whatever it's been to kind of have a understanding of the CP proposal. We've had a manner of hours to absorb the CN proposal. And other than what we've kind of filed with the regulator concern -- expressing our thoughts on the -- so far, just on the procedural aspects of the CP transaction, I'm going to have to reserve comment about what I think in particular to either one of those transactions, until we had a time to see what they put forth and see what we think the impacts of whatever they put forth to the regulator in terms of why they think their transaction is a good deal. You've known me for a long time, Tom, I've been around this industry forever now it seems like. And started out in the days when the industry was, some would say, collapsed, if not near bankruptcy facing the prospects of nationalization.

嗯，我們當然有研究——是的，謝謝你，Tom。正如我說的，過去一個月左右，我們確實有機會對 CP 的提案有一些理解。而對於 CN 的提案，我們只有幾個小時可以消化。除了我們已向監管機關提交的內容——就目前而言，主要是針對 CP 交易的程序面提出疑慮並表達我們的想法——在我有時間看到他們提出的內容、並評估他們向監管機關所提交的理由（也就是他們為何認為這筆交易是好交易）之前，我必須保留對這兩筆交易任何一筆的具體評論。你認識我很久了，Tom；我在這個產業打滾很久了，久到好像一輩子都在這裡。我剛入行時，產業在某些人看來已經崩潰，至少也接近破產，甚至面臨國有化的可能。

And over that period of time, since deregulation, the industry has transformed itself back into a strong vibrant industry, and most of that would be associated or attributed to the consolidations that have happened and the efficiencies that have come from that and the dramatic reinvestment and service improvement that has come to the industry as a result of those consolidations, all of which were approved by regulators to make sure that they were in the public interest and good for the customers. So I have a view of what I think is -- if it's good for the customer, if it improves the quality of service for the customer, and it's in the public interest, I clearly say, "Hey, let's take a look at it and figure out what it all means." But in all circumstances, the devil is in the details of any transaction. And so until I get an opportunity to review any proposals, I just have to reserve comment on the transactions themselves.

而在那段期間，自從解除管制以來，這個產業已經轉型回到一個強健且充滿活力的產業；其中很大一部分可歸因於已發生的整併，以及由此帶來的效率提升，還有因整併而促成的重大再投資與服務改善。所有這些整併都經過監管機關核准，以確保符合公共利益並對客戶有利。因此，我對什麼是——如果對客戶有利、能提升客戶的服務品質、並符合公共利益——我會很清楚地說：「好，那我們來看看，弄清楚這一切代表什麼。」但在任何情況下，任何交易的關鍵都在細節。所以在我有機會審閱任何提案之前，我只能對交易本身保留評論。

Okay. But it sounds like you think it can be a constructive thing for the industry just in terms of being open to consolidation?

了解。但聽起來你認為，就對整個產業而言，至少在對整併保持開放的角度，這可能是一件具建設性的事？

Yes, as I said, I think it's been a tremendous benefit to the shipping community, what's taken place to transform the North American rail network.

是的，如我所說，我認為北美鐵路網路的轉型，對貨主社群帶來了巨大的好處。

We have our next question coming from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 Barclays Capital 的 Brandon Oglenski。

I guess, Jim, I want to stay on that subject. I mean, strategically, I guess we've heard a lot of negativity, though, about the next wave of "Class I mergers" if there ever is to be one ex KSU, but thinking more about potential transcontinental tie-ups. I mean we've heard a lot of the negative input from certain groups when other deals have been tried unsuccessfully. But I guess we haven't talked about a lot of the potential benefits. I mean do you view strategically as that is the path forward for the industry looking out 10 or 15 years.

Jim，我想延續這個主題。從策略面來看，我想我們聽到很多對下一波「一級鐵路（Class I）合併」的負面看法——如果真的會發生的話，且不包含 KSU 的情境——更偏向思考可能的跨大陸（transcontinental）結盟。我的意思是，當其他交易曾嘗試但未成功時，我們聽到某些團體很多負面意見。但我想我們並沒有談到太多潛在的好處。你是否從策略上認為，放眼未來 10 到 15 年，這會是產業前進的方向？

No, I can't speculate on what's going to happen 10 or 15 years. I'm trying to figure out what happened 10 or 15 hours ago. So as I said, there's been -- I think that, in my opinion, it has been the transformation of the North American rail network into what it is today has been a positive for the shipping community. And I think that's the key thing that the regulators look at, and I'm sure the regulators are going to do another thorough review of this transaction and see what happens.

不，我無法推測 10 或 15 年後會發生什麼。我現在還在試著搞清楚 10 或 15 小時前發生了什麼。所以如我所說，我認為北美鐵路網路轉型成今天的樣貌，對貨主社群是正面的。我認為這也是監管機關關注的關鍵點；我也相信監管機關會再次對這筆交易做徹底審查，看看結果如何。

We have our next question coming from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

SP11 So a couple of small ones for Kevin, can you just -- yields have been negative the last few quarters. How should we think about the direction of yields and pricing going forward? And then you guys have $3 billion of cash, another $400 million coming in and generating cash flow. Is there a potential for accelerated buyback? Or do you think this is the right pace going forward?

SP11 我有幾個小問題想問 Kevin。你能否說明一下——過去幾季的單位收益（yields）一直是負的。我們該如何看待未來單位收益與定價的走向？另外你們有 30 億美元現金，還有另外 4 億美元即將進來並持續產生現金流。是否有可能加速庫藏股回購？還是你認為以後維持這個節奏是合適的？

Yes. As I mentioned on the buyback specifically, we will definitely be opportunistic if there's opportunities to accelerate that. And you could expect, given the visibility going forward that we'll be much more aggressive in that area given an opportunity. So we have some flexibility in that. Clearly, as I've said, $3 billion of cash is not something that we're looking long term to keep on the balance sheet, and we'll move away from that. Second part of that question was, again? .

是的。就回購而言，如我提到的，我們若有機會一定會採取機會主義方式，在有條件時加速回購。因此，考量到未來的能見度，只要有機會，你可以預期我們在這方面會更積極。我們在這方面有一些彈性。很明確地，如我所說，30 億美元現金不是我們長期想放在資產負債表上的水位，我們會逐步降低。你剛剛問題的第二部分是什麼來著？

Just the pricing momentum and us have been negative, when you think we get to positive, how should we think about that?

就是定價動能，以及我們的單位收益一直是負的；你認為什麼時候會轉正？我們該如何看待？

Yes. We're going to lap -- on the fuel surcharge, we'll lap that headwind this quarter. So we'll start -- we'll see that kind of take away starting in the second quarter. We'll see some positive RPU growth as you guys look at it starting second quarter. Coal will be more favorable as we lap easier comps from last year, really across the group. I will say, we were looking at this yesterday is pricing renewals are above our average price. So we are seeing some acceleration there, which is good and would be expected in a tight trucking environment. And we're looking ahead to more inflation potentially. So those are discussions that we'll continue to have with the customer. But I would expect the pricing environment to improve.

是的。燃油附加費方面，我們這一季會跨過（lap）那個逆風基期。所以從第二季開始，你會看到那個因素逐步消退。從第二季開始，你們用 RPU（每單位收入）來看，會看到一些正向成長。煤炭業務也會更有利，因為我們會跨過去年較容易的比較基期，基本上整體都是如此。我想補充的是，我們昨天在看，定價續約的水準高於我們的平均價格。因此我們確實看到一些加速，這是好的，也符合在卡車運輸環境緊俏時的預期。而我們也在往前看，通膨可能會更高。所以這些都是我們會持續與客戶討論的議題。但我預期定價環境會改善。

We have our next question coming from the line of Chris Wetherbee with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自 Citi 的 Chris Wetherbee。

Maybe kind of sticking on the revenue opportunity for a moment. When you think about volume for this year, I guess I'm trying to hope and maybe you can get a little bit more specific when you're thinking about, I know you pegged the sort of GDP plus, but if you could give us maybe some parameters after we've seen sort of the toughest comp quarter out of the way? Obviously, we've gotten through the weather, we know so the run rate of opportunity is now. It sounds like maybe there's upside from a revenue standpoint coming from both volume and price, but I don't know if you can kind of break those 2 apart for us a little bit and give us a little bit of sense of what you really see for the volume opportunity for you guys for the full year.

也許先在營收機會這一點上多停留一下。當你們思考今年的運量時，我想我是在期待——也希望你能更具體一點——我知道你們是以「GDP 再加一些」作為基準，但在我們已經度過最艱難的同比比較季度之後，你能否給我們一些可能的參數？顯然，我們已經挺過天氣因素，我們也知道現在的機會運行率是什麼。聽起來從營收角度看，運量與價格兩方面可能都有上行空間，但我不確定你能否把這兩者稍微拆開說明，並讓我們更了解你們對全年運量機會的實際看法。

Well, we gave a revenue number. I don't know if we're going to parse it down into specific volume. I think you can assume that both when we move into the back half of the year, will be -- start to be positive and more positive certainly in the second half of the year when you think about RPUs just based on some of the comps that we're lapping from prior year. So clearly, second quarter volume will accelerate significantly given the COVID impact. Third quarter, you're kind of lapping some COVID impact as well. In fourth quarter, we started to see some recovery, particularly in the intermodal business. So from a pace, I would expect, obviously, second quarter to be the highest growth quarter. Third quarter probably follows that and then the fourth quarter is probably a little bit more up in the air. We'll see how much the economy continues to accelerate from here. But the easiest comp in the second quarter is second easiest, with probably third quarter and -- but we still expect second half growth to be pretty robust from where we see it today.

嗯，我們已經給了一個營收數字。我不確定我們是否會把它拆解到具體的運量。我想你可以假設，當我們進入下半年時，兩者都會——開始轉為正向，而且在下半年尤其是第二個半年會更為正向，當你考慮到 RPU（每單位收入）時，主要是基於我們正在跨越去年同期的一些比較基期。所以很明顯，第二季的運量會因為去年 COVID 的影響而大幅加速。第三季你也在跨越一些 COVID 的影響。第四季我們開始看到一些復甦，特別是在聯運（intermodal）業務上。因此就節奏而言，我會預期第二季顯然會是成長最高的季度。第三季大概會緊隨其後，而第四季可能就比較不確定。我們會看看經濟從這裡開始還能加速多少。但第二季的比較基期最容易（或次容易），第三季大概也是——不過從我們今天看到的情況來看，我們仍預期下半年的成長會相當強勁。

And just maybe one point of clarification, since the last time we spoke 3 months ago, sort of the incremental upside, do you feel like it's coming a little bit more from volume or price or a little bit of both? I guess that's kind of what I was getting at.

再請教一點釐清：自從我們三個月前上次通話以來，這種增量的上行空間，你覺得是更多來自運量、價格，還是兩者都有？我想我主要想問的是這個。

I mean, clearly, volume will be just based on what we saw last year will be the bigger component of our revenue growth for the year this year.

我的意思是，很明顯，運量——基於我們去年看到的情況——會是今年我們全年營收成長中較大的組成部分。

Our next question coming from the line of Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

我們下一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Amit Mehrotra。

Kevin, I wanted to follow up on the incremental margin question. I certainly, hope incremental margins will be positive as revenue turns positive -- revenue growth turns positive. But we're talking about -- you guys are talking about feeling better about volumes. You just said pricing is better than kind of typical renewals. So you've been pretty specific in the past in terms of giving specific OR targets? I think I'm not asking you to do that, but if you just look at the way your cost structure has evolved, it would imply 60% to 70% incremental margins, just all else equal, just based on the variable and fixed nature of your costs and pricing is getting better. So unless I'm missing something, like why shouldn't incremental margins be 60%, 70% or better than that in the context of revenue growth, volume growth and pricing growth?

Kevin，我想追問一下增量利潤率的問題。我當然希望當營收轉正——營收成長轉正時，增量利潤率也會是正的。但我們談的是——你們談到對運量感覺更好。你剛才也說定價比一般續約情況更好。所以你們過去在給出具體 OR（營運比率）目標方面一直很具體？我想我不是要你這麼做，但如果只看你們成本結構的演變，在其他條件相同下，僅基於成本的變動與固定特性，加上定價正在改善，這會意味著 60% 到 70% 的增量利潤率。所以除非我漏掉了什麼，否則在營收成長、運量成長與價格成長的背景下，為什麼增量利潤率不應該是 60%、70% 或甚至更高？

Yes. I mean, first of all, as I was explaining before, I think, the magnitude of the revenue growth is a factor here, right? The more revenue growth that we potentially project here, the better the incremental margins. That's just basic math on that side. So we are very positive on the outlook. We'll -- as the network improves, that will drop through. And I don't think anything has changed from what we saw in the first quarter, what we said for the full year in terms of our ability to convert revenue into margin -- into operating income. We're not going to probably get in the game of getting a point target because things are still fluid from a revenue perspective, another point or 2 in revenue growth above and beyond what we have expect today. We'll see more benefit to where we ultimately land on the OR.

是的。我的意思是，首先，如同我先前解釋的，我認為營收成長的幅度是這裡的一個因素，對吧？我們在這裡若能預期更高的營收成長，增量利潤率就會更好。這在那一端就是基本數學。所以我們對前景非常正面。隨著網路狀況改善，這些會反映到損益上。而且我不認為有任何事情改變了我們第一季看到的情況，以及我們對全年所說的——我們把營收轉換成利潤率——轉換成營業利益的能力。我們大概不會去給一個點數目標，因為從營收角度看事情仍然很流動；若營收成長比我們今天預期的再多 1 到 2 個百分點，我們會看到更多好處，並影響我們最終落在 OR 的位置。

Right. And maybe a better way to ask that question then, Kevin, if I could is, I think you're talking about just the fact that you have regular weight inflation that doesn't make incremental margins linear as revenues come on, if I'm interpreting your comments correctly. So is the right way to think about regular weight inflation kind of 2%, 3% off of your current OpEx base? And as revenue grows in excess of that, that will much more significantly drop to the bottom line, just help us think through the philosophy around what you're seeing?

了解。那 Kevin，如果可以的話，我換個方式問：我想你在說的是，你有常態性的單位成本（或重量）通膨，這使得隨著營收進來，增量利潤率不會呈線性——如果我對你評論的理解正確的話。所以正確的思考方式是：常態性的單位成本通膨大概相當於你目前營業費用（OpEx）基礎的 2%、3%？而當營收成長超過那個幅度時，就會更顯著地落到最終獲利上；請幫我們理解你們所看到的背後邏輯與思維？

Yes, that's exactly right. There's fixed cost inflation that you have to offset every year, particularly on the labor side. And then we're probably seeing -- although inflation remains low on the material side, seeing some signs of that ticking up as well. So once you offset all of the inflation with further growth, then you'll see a more meaningful impact of the next point of growth above and beyond that.

是的，完全正確。每年都有固定成本通膨需要抵消，特別是在勞動力方面。然後我們可能也看到——雖然材料端的通膨仍然偏低——也有一些開始上升的跡象。所以一旦你用進一步的成長抵消了所有通膨，接下來超出那個水準的每一個成長點，就會帶來更有意義的影響。

And is that $200 million to $300 million a year as kind of that threshold point? Or is it less or more than that?

那這個門檻點大概是一年 2 億到 3 億美元嗎？還是比那個更少或更多？

We're looking at about 3% overall inflation across our cost structure.

我們看的是整體成本結構大約 3% 的總體通膨。

We have our next question coming from the line of Fadi Chamoun with BMO Capital Markets.

我們下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Fadi Chamoun。

Okay. Jim, I just want to kind of circle back on the M&A topic a little bit. So I mean, we're kind of seeing the merits of kind of end-to-end mergers being outlined out there, like from a shipper's perspective, improving the capacity, improving the service, potentially improving the cost for the carrier as well. Why wouldn't that kind of scenario apply to East West merger? It feels like when it comes to transcon mergers, there's always this idea that they're anticompetitive mergers, and I'm just trying to reconcile, why would that be the case? Within the supply, kind of the same logic, if we put aside all those new roles and all that kind of debate aside, wouldn't, technically speaking, these end-to-end merger provide the same kind of benefit that we would see in these other proposed transactions?

好的。Jim，我想就併購（M&A）這個主題稍微再繞回來一下。我的意思是，我們看到市場上在闡述端到端合併的優點，例如從貨主角度看，可以提升運能、改善服務，也可能改善承運人的成本。為什麼這種情境不會適用於東西向合併？感覺一談到橫貫大陸（transcon）的合併，總是會被認為是反競爭的合併；我只是想釐清，為什麼會是這樣？在供給面、用同樣的邏輯，如果我們先把那些新規則以及各種爭論放一邊，從技術上說，這些端到端合併不也會帶來與其他提案交易相同類型的效益嗎？

Well, certainly, there's an ongoing dialogue right now about the merits of end-to-end transactions. And historically speaking, railroad consolidations that were viewed as end-to-end and didn't reduce competition or did not reduce optionality to the shipping community were viewed as -- viewed favorably. And I don't know that there's been any change in philosophy on that point. So like I said, we'll all see how this begins to play out. We're in the early stages as everyone keeps being reminded of a long process, in some cases, maybe a month and in some cases, hours. So we'll see how it unfolds. But again, the overreaching, overriding principles, I think, are applicable today.

嗯，當然，目前對端到端交易的優點正有持續的對話。而從歷史來看，被視為端到端、且不會降低競爭或不會降低航運社群選擇性的鐵路整併，通常被——被正面看待。而我不確定在這一點上的理念是否有任何改變。所以如我所說，我們都會看看這件事接下來如何發展。我們還在早期階段，正如大家一直被提醒的，這是一個漫長的流程；在某些情況下可能是以月計，在某些情況下可能是以小時計。所以我們會看看它如何展開。但再一次，我認為那些更宏觀、最核心的原則，在今天仍然適用。

We have our next question coming from the line of Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Brian Ossenbeck。

I wanted to come back to truckload conversion. Jim, you mentioned your at 90%, 90-plus-percent compliance with the intermodal trip plan with basically zero cushion. It sounds like that's pretty truck-like service. If -- are you seeing a material impact of the service on conversions? If not, what's left to really get more shippers over the line? And then when you think about making these longer-term conversions, how are you trying to make these stickier rather than someone looking for capacity in a tight market? How do you make these conversions really longer term and beneficial for both parties.

我想回到整車（truckload）轉換的議題。Jim，你提到你們對於聯運行程計畫（intermodal trip plan）的遵循率達到 90%、甚至 90% 以上，而且基本上沒有任何緩衝空間。聽起來那是相當接近卡車的服務水準。如果——你們是否看到服務水準對轉換帶來實質影響？如果沒有，還差什麼才能真正讓更多貨主跨過那道門檻？另外，當你們思考推動這些較長期的轉換時，你們如何讓這些轉換更具黏著度，而不是讓對方只是因為市場緊俏時在找運能？你們如何讓這些轉換真正成為長期、並且對雙方都有利？

Well, yes, in the intermodal business, yes, I mean we were setting records in terms of our volumes. And this is -- that's after a couple of years earlier of reengineering the intermodal network and which positioned us to be a bigger participant in this transformation to the e-commerce business model that so many people are adopting. So because we fixed the rail and because we improved the service and because we've done all these things, we're able to participate in this where I don't think we would have been able to do that so effectively in the past, and it shows in our numbers. And I don't see that changing. If people want to move more boxes and buy more things online, we want to be more and more and more involved in that supply chain. And we'll continue to work in that area to the best that we can.

嗯，是的，在聯運業務方面，是的，我的意思是我們在運量上創下了紀錄。而這——是在更早之前、經過數年對聯運網路重新工程（reengineering）之後的成果，這讓我們得以在許多人採用的電商商業模式轉型中，成為更重要的參與者。所以因為我們把鐵路端修好了、因為我們改善了服務、因為我們做了所有這些事情，我們才能參與其中；我不認為過去我們能如此有效地做到，而這也反映在我們的數字上。而我不認為這會改變。如果人們想運更多箱、在線上買更多東西，我們希望在那條供應鏈中參與得越來越多、越來越多、越來越多。我們也會在這個領域持續盡我們所能地努力。

The other area where we're constantly focusing on truck conversions is in the merchandise side of the business. And that's taking metals and plastics and steel and cardboard and you name it, that today, we move in a boxcar, and the same shipper and the same plant in many circumstances is loading truck out the other side of their production facility. And that just takes us more and more time of getting involved, working with the customer. And we continue to see -- we continue to win business in those areas. And again, that's because our service reliability, not speed, but reliability is equivalent to what they're getting in a truck. And so we have to get back to where we were in terms of -- and that's reliability is trip plan compliance. We have to get back to where we were and then get even better. And the better we get in that area and the more focused we are and that will continue to grow that -- those conversion opportunities as well.

另一個我們持續聚焦卡車轉換的領域是在商品（merchandise）業務端。也就是金屬、塑膠、鋼材、紙板等等——你說得出來的——今天我們用棚車（boxcar）運的貨，而在很多情況下，同一個貨主、同一座工廠，卻在其生產設施的另一端用卡車出貨。而這就需要我們投入更多時間、更深入參與並與客戶合作。我們也持續看到——我們持續在那些領域贏得業務。而且同樣地，這是因為我們的服務可靠性——不是速度，而是可靠性——已經等同於他們用卡車所得到的水準。因此我們必須回到我們過去的水準——也就是可靠性等同於行程計畫遵循（trip plan compliance）。我們必須回到過去的水準，然後做得更好。而我們在這方面做得越好、越聚焦，就會持續擴大那些轉換機會。

And just to clarify, has the sales cycle sped up on this? Are you finding shippers and customers more agreeable to have these conversations to the extent you can separate that from service improvements versus just being tied on capacity across the freight network in general?

再確認一下，這方面的銷售週期有加快嗎？在你能夠把「服務改善」與「整體貨運網路普遍運能吃緊」區分開來的前提下，你是否發現貨主與客戶更願意進行這些對話？

Conversations in those areas are -- yes, we're becoming more and more relevant in the supply chain. We're becoming recognized as being more reliable. And a lot of other factors are aligning as well is bigger -- our bigger customers want to do more and more things to become more environmentally friendly. We can help them with the reduction in their carbon footprint. So ESG plays in our favor, fuel efficiency plays in our favor. All of these -- our willingness to do things differently than the way we've done it in the past are -- we're showing good results.

在那些領域的對話——是的，我們在供應鏈中的相關性正變得越來越高。我們也逐漸被認可為更可靠。而且還有許多其他因素也在同時到位：我們的大型客戶希望做更多事情來變得更環保。我們可以協助他們降低碳足跡。因此 ESG 對我們有利、燃油效率對我們有利。所有這些——以及我們願意用不同於過去的方式做事——都正在展現良好的成果。

We have our next question coming from the line of Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.

我們的下一個問題來自 Susquehanna 的 Bascome Majors。

Jim, I understand your reluctance to comment on transactions that happen to been filed for approval yet, but you did mention that you have commented publicly on the procedural issue at stake here with the STB. And I thought it was notable that CSX was the only Class I rail that suggested the waiver of the 2001 rules does stand up for KSU or ask that it did. Can you give us a little more information or context on that and why you look at that differently than, say, your competitors?

Jim，我理解你不願評論尚未提交核准申請的交易，但你確實提到你曾就此處 STB 所涉及的程序性議題公開發表看法。我覺得值得注意的是，CSX 是唯一一家一級鐵路（Class I rail）表示 2001 年規則的豁免確實適用於 KSU，或至少提出了這樣的主張。你能否提供更多資訊或背景，說明你們為何會與競爭對手有不同的看法？

Well, maybe to one -- in one -- it started with the proposed CN-BN merger. And I just happen to be sitting in the room when it was put on hold and a moratorium was put in place and all these rules fell into place. So I have some sort of knowledge about how and why those rules were changed. And at that point in time, the ruling body felt that the -- an acquisition of the KCS didn't merit some speculative array of new ideas before they would approve it. And the regulatory body has had 20-some-years to change the rules, if they wanted to change the rules, and they didn't. So along comes a transaction and I kind of view the law is the law. And that's what we said. We don't see any circumstances that would merit a change from what was decided back in the day for the reasons it was decided.

嗯，也許從一個——在某種程度上——它是從當時提出的 CN-BN 合併案開始的。而我剛好就在現場，親眼看到它被暫停、並且實施了暫緩（moratorium），接著這些規則就陸續到位。所以我對這些規則為何、以及如何被修改，有一定程度的了解。而在那個時間點，裁決機關認為——收購 KCS 並不需要在核准之前先引入一套推測性的全新想法。而監管機關若想改規則，其實有 20 多年的時間可以改，但他們沒有。所以當一筆交易出現時，我的看法是法律就是法律。這就是我們所說的。我們看不出有任何情況足以讓人偏離當年基於那些理由所做出的決定。

We have our next question coming from the line of Jonathan Chappell.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jonathan Chappell。

Jamie, maybe a question for you. You guys have spoken pre-pandemic, through the pandemic about having spare capacity to take more business as your performance continues to improve. Obviously, the people is a different story altogether. But Kevin also noted taking some locomotives out of storage. So how do we think about new capacity coming online as you do see this economic ramp and the favorable volume backdrop? And what does that mean for costs? And I guess the part B to that is, how do you balance the super strength in intermodal today with your desire to expand with better mix and merchandise?

Jamie，也許這題問你。你們在疫情前、疫情期間都談到，隨著績效持續改善，你們仍有閒置運能可以承接更多業務。顯然，人力是完全不同的故事。但 Kevin 也提到把一些機車從封存（storage）中調出來。那麼，當你們看到經濟加速回升、以及有利的運量背景時，我們該如何看待新增運能上線？這對成本意味著什麼？另外我想問的第二部分是：在目前聯運非常強勁的同時，你們如何在「擴張」與「追求更佳組合與商品（merchandise）業務」之間取得平衡？

Look, on our capacity side out there in the network, I still feel confident that there's many sections of our network where we can continue to absorb 20%, 30% business. In some sections that as we work close with Mark and his team, where we are reaching out to customers and understanding where that flow is going to come from, which will require a few more train starts. We have -- and of course, I'm basing this off of us just over, let's say, 3 quarters ago when we were looking in the midst of a pandemic, and we were winding things down and record low numbers with respect to all of our assets. That's what we're basing this off of when we start talking about what we're going to need to pull out.

你看，就我們網路端的運能而言，我仍然有信心，在我們網路的許多區段，我們可以持續吸收 20%、30% 的業務成長。在某些區段，當我們與 Mark 及其團隊密切合作、主動接觸客戶並了解貨流將從何而來時，這將需要額外增加一些列車開行（train starts）。我們——當然，我的判斷基礎是回到大約 3 個季度前，當時我們仍在疫情之中、我們正在縮減規模，而且就所有資產而言都處於創紀錄的低水位。當我們開始談論需要把哪些資產調出來時，就是以那段時期作為基準。

So yes, we're getting ready with locomotives, still going to be less than where we were a year ago or 2 years ago, with where the volume was at. We'll still see record levels with respect to productivity out of our locomotives and our people. So it comes down to the mix of business that we're going to see. We're making sure that we're able to provide that service that brings the customers to us. So that's something that we're really working on. And when we think about assets of people, attrition was a higher rate that we -- than we really expected throughout the pandemic.

所以是的，我們正在為機車做準備，但機車數量仍會低於一年前或兩年前、當時運量所在的水準。我們仍將在機車與人員的生產力方面看到創紀錄的水準。因此，關鍵在於我們將看到的業務組合。我們正確保自己能提供能把客戶吸引過來的服務。這是我們正在非常努力推進的事情。而當我們談到人力資產時，疫情期間的自然流失率（attrition）高於我們原先的預期。

Those people, I think, it's just like the trucking industry, those who decided they may have thought they were going to hold on and not retire for a while, well, they retired, and they packed it in, and it was a little too much for them. So yes, we're going to see some of these assets come back. They're not going to be at the same levels that we had seen before. So I think as Kevin had mentioned, we're still going to see some good returns on all of this business that continues to come back in. And I'm sorry, the second part, I think you mentioned was on the intermodal side, it was -- what was that question?

那些人，我認為，這就像卡車運輸業一樣，那些原本決定可能還要再撐一陣子、不會那麼快退休的人，結果他們退休了，也就收手不做了，對他們來說有點太吃力了。所以是的，我們會看到其中一些資產回流。它們不會回到我們之前看到的同樣水準。所以我認為，正如 Kevin 提到的，對於這些持續回流的業務，我們仍然會看到不錯的回報。抱歉，第二部分，我想你提到的是聯運那邊——那個問題是什麼？

It was just balancing the equipment as intermodal has been incredibly strong, but you obviously have this desire to kind of improve the mix through merchandise growth.

就是在聯運一直非常強勁的情況下，如何平衡設備配置，但你們顯然也希望透過一般貨運（merchandise）成長來改善組合。

Yes. I mean, look, we -- where we can, we'll run intermodal with freight together and then in other areas where intermodal continues to grow. I still have room on the tail end of intermodal trains. Very few of my intermodal trains as it stands are sold out. We have cars and storage that we're able to pull out, and we continue to pull out as we see the need. Growth has been very strong, as Jim has mentioned. And our terminals are in fantastic shape. Scott Movshin and his team, that take care of the intermodal side of the business, have done an incredible job turning the assets when they arrive. And we continue -- we fully expect to continue to see that productivity get better as we move forward.

是的。我的意思是，你看，我們——在可以的地方，我們會把聯運和一般貨運一起跑；而在其他聯運持續成長的區域，我在聯運列車的尾端仍然有空間。就目前而言，我的聯運列車幾乎沒有幾班是滿載售罄的。我們有車輛和存放中的設備可以調出來，而且我們會在看到需求時持續調出。如 Jim 所提到的，成長一直非常強勁。而我們的場站狀況非常好。Scott Movshin 和他的團隊負責聯運業務，他們在資產到站後的周轉方面做得非常出色。而且我們會持續——我們完全預期，隨著往前推進，生產力還會繼續提升。

We have our next question coming from the line of David Vernon with Sanford Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 Sanford Bernstein 的 David Vernon。

I appreciate you taking the time to give -- share with us your sort of perspective on the historical sort of industry approach to consolidation. I wanted to ask you a question in a slightly different way. As you think about this opportunity to drive highway conversions on the CSX property, how would you think that an end-to-end merger might accelerate your ability to drive further highway conversions, whether it's carload or intermodal? And how is the Board thinking right now about the pros and cons of pursuing some sort of consolidation to help accelerate the highway conversion plan?

感謝你花時間向我們分享你對於過去產業在整併方面的歷史性做法的觀點。我想用稍微不同的方式問你一個問題。當你思考在 CSX 路網上推動「公路轉鐵路」的機會時，你會如何看待端到端合併可能加速你進一步推動公路轉換的能力，不論是車載（carload）或聯運？而董事會目前如何權衡，追求某種形式的整併以協助加速公路轉換計畫的利弊？

Well, yes, you can answer the question in a different way, but you're going to get the same answer. As I said, to the extent that the rail networks work together and however you go about that in creating a better product for the customer, and then mergers eliminate the bottleneck in between that it speeds things up and makes the service product a lot better and more truck like. So -- but that's not my job, that's my opinion. It's not my job to rule upon the merits of any transaction based upon the facts, and I'm sure the regulator will do a very thorough analysis and determine, again, as I said before, whether or not -- it's not anticompetitive and it's in the public interest.

嗯，是的，你可以用不同方式問，但你會得到同樣的答案。如我所說，只要鐵路路網能夠協同運作，不管你用什麼方式去做，以便為客戶創造更好的產品；而合併能消除中間的瓶頸，讓流程加快，並使服務產品好很多、更像卡車運輸。所以——但那不是我的工作，那是我的看法。我的工作不是根據事實去裁定任何交易的利弊；我相信監管機關會做非常徹底的分析，並再次如我之前所說，判定是否——它不具反競爭性且符合公共利益。

So -- but in your view, the industrial logic of that end-to-end merger would help you to drive highway conversions. That's kind of what I'm trying to get at.

所以——但在你看來，那種端到端合併的產業邏輯會幫助你推動公路轉換。這就是我想要釐清的。

Yes. Normally, 1 person in -- 1 person who is managing the supply chain, the conveyor belt, is better than having a 1 conveyor belt and having somebody take it off the conveyor belt and put the box onto the next conveyor belt for somebody else to run it. Normally, that seamlessness results in a smoother supply chain. And again, like I said, that's my opinion. But then somebody else has to look at it and say, Dave think it's a good idea.

是的。通常，由一個人來管理供應鏈、管理這條輸送帶，比起有一條輸送帶、再由某個人把貨從輸送帶上拿下來、把箱子放到下一條輸送帶上交給另一個人去跑，要更好。通常，這種無縫衔接會帶來更順暢的供應鏈。而且如我所說，那是我的看法。但接著還需要別人來看，然後說：Dave 覺得這是個好主意。

We have our next question coming from the line of Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自 Goldman Sachs 的 Jordan Alliger。

Yes. You mentioned in the slides increased visibility onto the positive economic momentum. I was wondering if you could perhaps pinpoint some thoughts around that. Is it still focused primarily on the intermodal recovery? Are you actually anticipating and seeing or expect the industrial side to be -- that's the biggest part of the higher visibility, the insight into the industrial versus intermodal?

是的。你在投影片中提到，對正向經濟動能的可視性提高。我想請你或許能更具體談談這點。這仍然主要聚焦在聯運復甦嗎？還是你其實正在預期、也正在看到工業端——也就是在工業相對於聯運方面——才是可視性提高的最大部分、最大的洞見來源？

Well, I think it's a number of factors. Again, in January, when we were trying to take a view out for the next 12 months, I said that it was difficult to predict. And that my crystal ball was a little fuzzy trying to determine about -- at that point in time, COVID cases were out of control. At that point in time, there was just a speculation about what was going to happen with the chip shortages. And so then -- and a number of people were forecasting GDP growth of X, Y and Z. Was there going to be a stimulus package? Was there not going to be a stimulus package? Was there going to be an infrastructure bill? Was there not going to be an infrastructure bill? .

嗯，我認為是多個因素。再說一次，在一月我們試著對未來 12 個月做判斷時，我說過很難預測。而我的水晶球有點模糊，因為要判斷——在那個時間點，COVID 病例失控。在那個時間點，大家也只是推測晶片短缺會怎麼發展。然後——還有很多人預測 GDP 成長是 X、Y、Z。會不會有刺激方案？會不會沒有刺激方案？會不會有基礎建設法案？會不會沒有基礎建設法案？.

And then you added into my crystal ball effect that it turned into more of a snow globe in February. Well, some of that smoke has cleared and people have taken their -- most people have taken their forecasts for growth this year up. And we're starting to now see it, feel it, have conversations with real-life customers about what they think is going to happen for the second half of the year. So that's what I mean by having more clarity in terms of trying to -- me tell the management team here at CSX, how to plan forecast and how we're going to run the business for the rest of the year.

然後你又把這些因素加進我的水晶球裡，二月它更像變成了一個雪花球。嗯，其中一些迷霧已經散去，而且大多數人已經把今年的成長預測上調。我們現在也開始看到、感受到，並且與真實客戶對話，了解他們認為下半年會發生什麼。所以我所說的更清晰，是指在我告訴 CSX 的管理團隊如何規劃預測、以及我們今年剩餘時間要如何營運業務方面，能有更高的明確度。

We have our next question coming from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 Ravi Shanker。

Jim, if I can just follow up on the topic of highway conversions. I mean, when you look at the last 3 years, we've had 2 of the tightest truck markets in history. So this should be the time when you guys have more volumes that you can possibly handle on the intermodal side and yet kind of look over the last several years, kind of intermodal volumes haven't really kind of materially gone up. So I'm just trying to understand kind of what's that hold up there? Is it just more resources and capacity on the rail side? And if that's the case, kind of why don't you guys just put in billions of dollars into increasing capacity of the volumes out there? Or if not, kind of does there need to be a material change in the service product to actually close that volume gap and drive material highway conversion to rail?

Jim，如果我可以就公路轉換這個主題追問一下。我的意思是，回顧過去 3 年，我們經歷了史上最緊俏的卡車市場中的兩次。所以這應該是你們在聯運端能拿到、甚至可能多到你們處理不完的量的時候；但回頭看過去幾年，聯運量似乎並沒有實質性地上升。所以我只是想了解，那裡的卡點到底是什麼？是鐵路端需要更多資源與產能嗎？如果是這樣，為什麼你們不乾脆投入數十億美元去擴增產能、把外面的量吃下來？或者如果不是，那是否需要在服務產品上做出實質性的改變，才能真正縮小那個量的落差，並推動大幅度的公路轉鐵路？

Well, again, let's focus on the intermodal side of the business. In '17, we took off -- we demarketed about 8% of the intermodal business. In 2018, we demarketed about another 8% of the intermodal business. We then went into kind of an industrial recession in a global pandemic. And throughout all of that, we're now producing phenomenal record volume levels for CSX. So not sure what you missed. On the merchandise side of the business, we're doing a really good job there. As I said, we're starting to convert business from the highway, which involves really no financial investment. It involves an investment on our part to make a commitment to the customer that we're going to provide them with truck-like reliable service, which we're now doing, and we're converting this. So I'm very -- obviously, I'd like to turn around 50 years of decline in the railroad industry in a couple of weeks and spending a couple of billion dollars, but I don't think that's possible.

好，再次，讓我們把焦點放在業務的聯運面向。在2017年，我們退出——我們對約8%的聯運業務進行了去行銷（demarket）。在2018年，我們又對約另外8%的聯運業務進行了去行銷。之後我們又遭遇某種工業衰退以及全球性疫情。而在這一切期間，我們現在正為CSX創造驚人的創紀錄運量水準。所以不確定你錯過了什麼。在商品貨運（merchandise）這一塊，我們做得非常好。如我所說，我們開始把業務從公路端轉換過來，這幾乎不需要任何財務投資。它需要我們投入的是：向客戶做出承諾，我們將提供像卡車一樣可靠的服務；我們現在正在做到這點，也正在把這些業務轉換過來。所以我非常——顯然，我也希望能在幾週內、花上幾十億美元就扭轉鐵路產業50年的下滑，但我不認為那是可能的。

Okay. Understood. And I'm sorry if I missed this in your prepared remarks, but what's the current kind of percentage of the workforce that's kind of impacted by the pandemic and kind of maybe kind of on leave right now pending either vaccination or kind of quarantine? I think in the past, you've said that in some locations, up to 20% of your workforce was out of commission, kind of what's the updated number now?

好的。了解。如果我在你事先準備的發言中漏聽了，先說聲抱歉；但目前大概有多少比例的員工受到疫情影響，例如目前因等待接種疫苗或因隔離而正在休假的？我記得你們過去曾說，在某些地點最多有20%的員工無法上工；現在更新後的數字是多少？

Well, 20% would have been kind of like on a terminal specific basis, really on the western side of the railroad where we had kind of a cluster. Clearly, we don't have 20% of our workforce off sick. I think the number of employees who have contracted the virus is -- so far is around 13%. I think that's the right number. .

嗯，20%那會比較像是以特定場站（terminal）為單位的情況，主要是在鐵路西側，我們那邊曾出現一個群聚。很明顯，我們不可能有20%的員工都因病缺勤。我想截至目前，感染病毒的員工比例大約是13%。我想這個數字是對的。.

Yes, around 3%. Clearly, we had a spike. We had a peak just like everybody sells in the U.S., coming out of Christmas. They gradually declined. Kind of going into March, the numbers were really, really low. I was feeling really, really optimistic. Everybody here in Jacksonville got their shots. And now the cases are spiking back up just like they are every place else. So we're watching it. But again, it's a much -- in total of the workforce, it's kind of around the national average. We're a good indicator of -- we're at or slightly below the average -- national average for infection rates, which I think is fantastic when you think that all of our employees are out there and have been out there since the very beginning of all of this, ended January 2020 working -- going to work every single day. And we have less than the national average of infection rate, that's phenomenal work by our employees of taking care of themselves and their coworkers.

是的，大約3%。很明顯，我們曾出現一波激增。我們在聖誕節後出現高峰，就像美國所有人一樣。之後逐步下降。大概進入3月時，數字真的非常、非常低。我當時感到非常、非常樂觀。傑克遜維爾這裡的每個人都打了疫苗。而現在病例又再度飆升，就像其他地方一樣。所以我們正在觀察。但再說一次，就整體員工而言，大概接近全國平均。我們是一個很好的指標——我們的感染率在全國平均附近或略低於平均；考慮到我們所有員工都在外面工作，而且從一開始——自2020年1月以來——每天都去上班，這樣的結果我認為非常出色。而我們的感染率低於全國平均，這是我們員工照顧自己與同事所做出的卓越成果。

We have our next question coming from the line of Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital.

下一個問題來自RBC Capital的Walter Spracklin。

I guess my question, Jim, is on the potential impact of further reacceleration in demand should we get a kind of a surge here in demand conditions? I know railroads haven't always like surges, surges or a big decline, steady is kind of a better situation to be in. But what's different now would you say and maybe Jamie chimes in here, but what's different about how your network, your organization is set up to be able to handle surges? And are we able -- can you do that without major service disruption and the customers feeling the effect of those surges as kind of we did when the weather was a little inclement there? Just curious in that direction.

Jim，我想問的是：如果需求狀況出現一波需求激增，需求進一步再加速，可能會帶來什麼影響？我知道鐵路公司一向不太喜歡激增——不論是激增或大幅下滑；相對而言，穩定通常是比較好的狀態。但你會說現在有什麼不同？也許Jamie也可以補充：你們的路網與組織架構現在有什麼不同，使得你們能夠應對需求激增？而我們是否能——你們能否在不造成重大服務中斷、且不讓客戶感受到激增影響的情況下做到？就像之前天氣稍微惡劣時我們曾看到的那樣。只是想往這個方向了解一下。

Well, I think that what's different, first of all, is a mindset, a common focus amongst all of the railroads in North America in terms of wanting to move our customers' products more efficiently, effectively and then adjusting your workforce, so that it thinks differently, is more nimble, it's responsive to customer needs and wants to grow the business. So I think we have changed to a large degree, one positive that comes out of adopting a different business model is a completely different mindset amongst your workforce. We've got a long ways to go there.

嗯，我認為不同之處，首先是一種心態：北美所有鐵路公司在「希望更有效率、更有效能地運送客戶產品」這件事上有共同的聚焦；接著是調整你們的勞動力，讓他們用不同方式思考、更靈活、更能回應客戶需求，並且想要成長業務。所以我認為我們在很大程度上已經改變了；採用不同商業模式帶來的一個正面效果，就是員工的心態完全不同。我們在這方面還有很長的路要走。

But -- and we're not afraid to how do we make sure that we don't get ourselves in a situation where we can't handle peaks in shipping volume. We were talking about at the end of last year, 4 months ago about hiring because we want to make sure we're in a position to run our -- move our customers' freight in June, July and August. Nobody -- no other railroad guy would ever talk like that before. They would, "Oh, God, we're not going to hire. We've got to lay off people." Things are bad. We got to lay off more people. We got to cut the workforce. We got to do -- we've got to furlough. We've got to park locomotives. Well, then the business would have surged back, and you wouldn't have been able to handle it. So I think we do a better job now as an industry of trying to look out in the future to make sure that we're in a position to be able to handle the peaks and valleys. I mean think about what we went through in the last year. Just take the auto business as an example, forecasted car sales are going to be very, very strong.

但是——我們並不害怕去思考：我們要如何確保自己不會陷入無法處理運量高峰的情況。我們在去年年底、也就是4個月前就在談招募，因為我們想確保自己有能力在6月、7月、8月運行——運送客戶的貨物。以前沒有任何其他鐵路人會這樣說話。他們會說：「天啊，我們不會招人。我們得裁員。」情況很糟。我們得再裁更多人。我們得縮減人力。我們得——我們得放無薪假（furlough）。我們得把機車停放不用。但接著業務又會反彈，你就會無法應付。所以我認為現在作為一個產業，我們更擅長往前看，確保自己有能力處理高峰與低谷。想想我們去年經歷了什麼。以汽車業為例，預測的汽車銷售將會非常、非常強勁。

We're going into January, three months later, I looked on the morning report about how much auto traffic we were moving and it was zero. And then, we thought, well, this will never start back up. This is going to be a very slow startup. How are we going to handle this? And the next thing we know we get a call saying all the manufacturers are going back to restart their plant's 3 shifts a day. We were able to move, respond and be able to serve that customer segment in a manner that had very, very little disruption. We all geared up into January of this year figuring, all right, it's going to be another great year.

我們進入1月，三個月後，我看早晨報告上我們運送了多少汽車貨量，結果是零。然後我們想，嗯，這可能再也不會恢復了。這會是一個非常緩慢的重啟。我們要怎麼應對？接著我們就接到電話說，所有製造商都要回去把工廠恢復到一天三班制。我們能夠調度、回應，並以幾乎沒有中斷的方式服務那個客戶族群。我們大家在今年1月都已經做好準備，想著：好吧，這會是又一個很棒的一年。

And then guess what? All the plants are shut down again because they can't get a computer chip. So throughout the peaks and valleys, we've been able to move and be nimble and take care of that very, very important customer base for us. And it's no different than take one of our very, very important intermodal customers that's shipping boxes for the peak season. Well, the peak season started about 3 months earlier than peak season and then never stopped. So we've been there. Our terminals have been open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, moving as much as we can, record volumes. And so we think differently, and we respond differently.

然後你猜怎麼著？所有工廠又再度停工，因為他們拿不到電腦晶片。所以在高峰與低谷之間，我們一直能夠調整、保持靈活，並照顧這個對我們非常、非常重要的客戶基礎。這和我們某個非常、非常重要的聯運客戶在旺季運送貨櫃箱其實沒有不同。旺季大概比原本旺季提早了約3個月開始，然後就一直沒有停。所以我們一直都在。我們的場站一天24小時、一週7天開放，盡可能多地運送，運量創新高。因此我們的思維不同，我們的回應方式也不同。

We have our next question coming from the line of Jason Seidl with Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Jason Seidl。

Wanted to talk a little bit about the intermodal side. Again, clearly, you're taking business off the highway and that seems to be working. Where do you think you stand competitively with your Eastern partner? Do you think you're taking market share there? And just in general, growing the intermodal business, you mentioned you have room on the back of the trains. Is there anything out there in the marketplace right now, limiting your ability to grow? Is it drivers for the drayage side? Is it actual physical boxes? Is there anything standing in your way of growing even more than you are now?

我想稍微談一下聯運（intermodal）這一塊。同樣地，很明顯你們正在把業務從公路轉移過來，而且看起來運作得不錯。你認為你們與東部合作夥伴相比，競爭力處於什麼位置？你覺得你們在那裡正在取得市占率嗎？另外，就整體而言，在擴大聯運業務方面，你提到列車後段還有空間。目前市場上是否有任何因素限制你們的成長能力？是短途接駁（drayage）端的司機嗎？是實際的箱體設備嗎？是否有任何因素阻礙你們比現在成長得更多？

Well, that's a very good question. In terms of what it is that CSX has control over, I would say, very little. We have train capacity. We have a very good service product. Our terminals are fluid. We can handle more volume and we can do that. In terms of the environment in which we're trying to be able to do all these things, there's not an area that I can look at. It's not in disruption or is a mess, whether it's steamships backed up at the ports on the West Coast, East Coast, sideways in the Suez, whether there's driver shortages, whether there's chassis shortages, whether there's box shortages. The entire global supply chain is stressed that I think everybody in the industry, in all of the railroads, at all of our major channel partners are doing an amazing job of trying to keep up with things and meet the needs of the consuming public when you're seeing these big changes in buying and shipping habits.

嗯，這是個非常好的問題。就 CSX 能夠掌控的部分而言，我會說其實非常有限。我們有列車運能。我們有非常好的服務產品。我們的場站運作順暢。我們可以處理更多量，而且我們也能做到。至於我們想要把這些事情都做好的外部環境，我看不到有哪個環節是正常的。沒有哪個地方不是在受干擾或一團亂：不論是西岸港口、東岸港口的貨輪塞港，或是在蘇伊士運河橫卡著；不論是司機短缺、車架（chassis）短缺、或是箱體短缺。整個全球供應鏈都處於緊繃狀態；我認為產業內的每個人、所有鐵路公司、以及我們所有主要通路夥伴，都在盡最大努力跟上變化，並在你看到購買與運輸習慣出現巨大改變時，滿足消費大眾的需求。

And in terms of your market share on the rail side?

那在鐵路端的市占率方面呢？

I think, again, I think we're doing -- I think, we're doing a really good job. I think that the industry on a whole is clearly up, and that's despite, as I said, all of the supply chain being really under a lot of pressure in some absolutely horrible weather conditions across the continent in the middle of a pandemic.

我想，再次強調，我認為我們做得——我認為我們做得非常好。我認為整個產業整體明顯成長，而這是在我剛才說的、整個供應鏈承受巨大壓力之下，並且在疫情期間、全大陸遭遇一些極其惡劣天候條件的情況下達成的。

Just one thing to add on that is, I think, we're really proud of the team with respect to what Jim had mentioned. We stayed open 24/7 through the polar vortex and everything else that happened out there. We were one of the only rails that never shut any gates. We were there for our customers. We supplied the service that we said we would, and we expect to be able to do that as we continue to move forward.

補充一點，我想我們對團隊的表現感到非常自豪，正如 Jim 提到的。在極地渦旋（polar vortex）以及其他所有狀況期間，我們維持 24/7 不間斷營運。我們是少數從未關閉任何閘門的鐵路公司之一。我們一直在那裡支持客戶。我們提供了我們承諾的服務，而且我們預期在未來持續前進的過程中也能做到這一點。

And that's what we were hearing in the marketplace, too. Appreciate your time, guys.

這也是我們在市場上聽到的情況。感謝你們撥冗，大家。

Hello?

喂？

We have our last question coming from the line of Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research.

我們最後一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Kauffman。

Jim, it's been a long call, but you mentioned something about the steamship backup, so they're still going on in the delays. I just wanted to ask you, all these inefficiencies, is it getting better on the East Coast ports for you? And can your system handle when these backups start to clear up and those volumes come to highway? How much business do you think you could be doing maybe not right now because of some of these inefficiencies that you were referring to in Jason's question?

Jim，這通電話很長，但你提到貨輪塞港，所以延誤仍在持續。我想請教，這些低效率狀況，對你們而言東岸港口的情況有在改善嗎？而且當這些塞港開始消化、貨量回到公路時，你們的系統能承接嗎？你認為因為你在回答 Jason 問題時提到的某些低效率，導致你們現在可能沒辦法做到的業務量，大概會是多少？

Well, again, we're part of a chain. We're a link in the chain. And it's easier to move the chain when it's not kinked and there's no problems in it and everything is working smooth. So I think that all of us would be -- could move more. Listen, the port guys don't want to -- they don't want to put boxes on the ground because they don't have a chassis because they don't have a truck to dray it because they can't -- the railroads are backed up because the railroads don't want to deal with somebody putting the box underground. Because of this, we all would like things to be smoother and we would all benefit from this.

嗯，再次強調，我們是鏈條的一部分。我們是鏈條中的一個環節。當鏈條沒有打結、沒有問題、每個環節都順暢運作時，推動整條鏈就更容易。所以我認為我們所有人都會——都能運更多。你看，港口端不想——他們不想把箱子放到地面上，因為他們沒有車架（chassis），因為他們沒有卡車可以短途接駁（drayage），因為他們無法——鐵路端也塞住了，因為鐵路公司也不想處理有人把箱子堆到場內（ground）這種情況。因此，我們都希望事情更順暢，而我們也都會因此受益。

And I think that right now, if you added up all the pluses and minuses, rail versus truck, I think the rail comes out on top. People want to -- people will talk -- people start talking about autonomous trucks and that's the solution and how do we do this and how do we run more and how do we become more energy efficient and how do we do -- I said, put it on the rail. We'll just take 200 of those trucks, and we'll take it across country with a crew of 2 and save your 75% in terms of your emissions and your fuel spend. So we're there. We're ready. We're growing. Like I said, we're setting records. And hopefully, we can get in the position where we just continue to set record after record after record after record. But it all takes -- we got the capacity, we have the ability, we just got to keep getting in there and fighting every single day to get as much freight as we possibly can.

而且我認為就目前而言，如果把鐵路相對於卡車的所有優缺點加總，我認為鐵路是占上風的。人們會——人們會談——人們開始談自動駕駛卡車，說那是解方，說我們要怎麼做、怎麼跑更多、怎麼更節能、怎麼——我說，把它放到鐵路上。我們直接把那 200 輛卡車的貨，靠著 2 人編組跨越全國運過去，並在排放與燃料支出方面替你省下 75%。所以我們已經就位。我們準備好了。我們正在成長。如我所說，我們正在創紀錄。也希望我們能處在一個位置，持續一再創下新紀錄、再創新紀錄、再創新紀錄、再創新紀錄。但這一切都需要——我們有運能，我們有能力，我們只需要每天持續投入、持續拚戰，盡可能爭取最多的貨運量。

And when you take a look at the driver shortage that's out there, a lot of the driver shortage is coming on the long-haul truckers. A lot of those truckers that like the long haul and wanted to move across the country, less and less of those are available. And when you look at drayage, when we bring it into town and we have someone who can dray it across town and go to bed every single night and be with their families, that seems to be the trend of what the new truck driver is out there, which again gives rail that advantage.

而當你看目前的司機短缺，很多短缺其實出現在長途卡車司機。那些喜歡長途、想跨州跑全國的卡車司機，能用的人越來越少。而當你看短途接駁（drayage），我們把貨帶進城裡，找人把它在城內短途運送，而且每晚都能回家、陪伴家人，這似乎就是現在新一代卡車司機的趨勢；這也再次讓鐵路具備優勢。

And there are no further questions at this time. This concludes today's call...

目前沒有其他問題。今天的電話會議到此結束……

Thank you, everyone, for calling in today. I really appreciate your good questions and look forward to talking to you all soon. Thank you. Bye-bye.

感謝各位今天來電參與。非常感謝你們提出的好問題，也期待很快再與各位交流。謝謝。再見。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。