CSX Corporation (CSX) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Emma, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Q4 2021 CSX Corporation Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Matthew Korn, you may begin your conference.

下午好。我叫 Emma，今天將擔任本次電話會議的接線員。此時，我謹代表公司歡迎各位參加 CSX Corporation 2021 年第四季（Q4 2021）財報電話會議。（接線員指示）Matthew Korn，您可以開始會議。

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome. Joining me on today's call are Jim Foote, President and Chief Executive Officer; Kevin Boone, Executive Vice President of Sales and Marketing; Jamie Boychuk, Executive Vice President of Operations; and Sean Pelkey, Acting Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝。各位下午好，歡迎各位參與今天的電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：總裁兼執行長 Jim Foote；銷售與行銷執行副總裁 Kevin Boone；營運執行副總裁 Jamie Boychuk；以及代理財務長 Sean Pelkey。

In our presentation, you will find our forward-looking disclosure on Slide 2 and followed by our non-GAAP disclosure on Slide 3. And with that, it's my pleasure to introduce our President and Chief Executive Officer, Jim Foote. Jim?

在我們的簡報中，您會在第 2 頁投影片看到前瞻性聲明揭露，接著在第 3 頁投影片看到非 GAAP 揭露。接下來，我很榮幸介紹我們的總裁兼執行長 Jim Foote。Jim？

Thank you, Matthew, and thank you to everyone for joining us for today's call. First, I'm pleased to welcome Matthew to CSX and believe his investment research background, including coverage of many of our customers will make him a great contributor to our team. And I wish Bill success in his new role as Head of Finance and Treasury.

謝謝你，Matthew，也謝謝各位參加今天的電話會議。首先，我很高興歡迎 Matthew 加入 CSX，並相信他在投資研究方面的背景（包括涵蓋我們許多客戶）將使他成為團隊的重要貢獻者。同時，我也祝福 Bill 在其新職務——財務與資金部主管——一切順利。

As we exit 2021, every CSX employee deserves recognition for their dedication to our customers in what has been another unbelievable year operating through the ongoing impacts of the pandemic and supply chain disruptions. As these challenges continue into the start of the new year, we continue to take the necessary steps to move more freight for our customers. We are putting the resources in place to deliver a high-quality service product and are working hard every day to make rail a more meaningful part of our customers' transportation solutions.

在 2021 年即將結束之際，每一位 CSX 員工都值得被肯定，因為他們在疫情持續影響與供應鏈中斷之下，仍以高度投入服務我們的客戶，這又是極不尋常的一年。隨著這些挑戰延續到新年之初，我們持續採取必要措施，為客戶運送更多貨物。我們正配置所需資源以提供高品質的服務產品，並每天努力讓鐵路成為客戶運輸解決方案中更具意義的一環。

Throughout this period, we have remained true to our core principles, operate safely, reliably and efficiently, and are committed to providing customers with additional capacity to help overcome the current challenges. These actions, combined with expected easing of supply chain disruptions position CSX for growth.

在這段期間，我們始終堅守核心原則——安全、可靠且高效率地營運——並致力於為客戶提供額外運能，以協助克服當前挑戰。這些行動，加上預期供應鏈中斷將逐步緩解，使 CSX 具備成長動能。

Turning to our presentation. Let's start with Slide 4, which highlights our key financial results. We moved nearly 1.6 million carloads in the fourth quarter and generated over $3.4 billion in revenue. Operating income increased by 12% to $1.37 billion. The operating ratio increased 310 basis points to 60.1%, which includes approximately 250 basis points from the impact from Quality Carriers and 50 basis points from higher fuel prices. And earnings per share increased 27% to $0.42 a share.

接著看我們的簡報。先從第 4 頁投影片開始，該頁重點呈現我們的主要財務成果。第四季我們運送了接近 160 萬車皮（carloads），並創造超過 34 億美元營收。營業利益成長 12% 至 13.7 億美元。營業比率（operating ratio）上升 310 個基點至 60.1%，其中約 250 個基點來自 Quality Carriers 的影響，另有 50 個基點來自燃料價格上升。每股盈餘成長 27% 至每股 0.42 美元。

I'll now turn it over to Kevin, Jamie and Sean for details.

接下來我將把時間交給 Kevin、Jamie 和 Sean，請他們說明細節。

Thank you, Jim. Turning to Slide 5. Fourth quarter revenue increased 21% year-over-year with growth across all major lines of business. Merchandise revenue increased 4% on 3% lower volume as the impact of ongoing automotive semiconductor shortages was more than offset by revenue growth across all other merchandise markets. Industrial and construction-related end markets continue to demonstrate the strongest growth. Even though declines in energy-related markets remain a headwind for our chemical business, it's important to highlight that our core chemical, plastics and waste markets continue to show solid year-over-year growth.

謝謝你，Jim。請看第 5 頁投影片。第四季營收年增 21%，所有主要業務線皆呈現成長。一般貨運（Merchandise）營收成長 4%，儘管運量下降 3%，但汽車用半導體短缺的持續影響，已被其他一般貨運市場的營收成長所抵銷。工業與建築相關終端市場仍展現最強勁的成長。雖然能源相關市場下滑仍對我們的化學品業務構成逆風，但值得強調的是，我們的核心化學品、塑膠與廢棄物市場仍呈現穩健的年增成長。

Intermodal revenue increased 16% on flat volumes as international growth driven by strong underlying demand and continued growth in rail volumes from East Coast ports was offset by domestic declines due to ongoing driver and equipment shortages. Coal revenue increased 39% on 2% lower volume. Increases in export coal shipments driven by the impact of rising benchmark prices was partially offset by the effect of declines in domestic volumes, largely related to producer outages. Other revenue increased primarily due to higher intermodal storage and equipment usage driven by supply chain disruptions resulting from truck driver shortages, chassis availability and the lack of warehouse capacity.

聯運（Intermodal）營收在運量持平的情況下成長 16%；其中，受強勁的基本需求帶動的國際業務成長，以及來自美東港口的鐵路運量持續增加，抵銷了因持續的司機與設備短缺所導致的國內業務下滑。煤炭營收在運量下降 2% 的情況下成長 39%。受基準價格上升影響而帶動的出口煤出貨增加，部分被國內運量下滑的影響所抵銷，而國內下滑主要與生產商停工有關。其他營收增加主要來自聯運倉儲與設備使用費提高，係因卡車司機短缺、底盤（chassis）供給不足以及倉儲容量不足所造成的供應鏈中斷所致。

As we exited the fourth quarter, we clearly saw the effects of Omicron with December volumes impacted by labor and supply chain disruptions. These challenges have continued into the new year, but we are seeing customers face labor shortages in their operations. As we look across merchandise, intermodal and coal markets, demand signals remain strong. As supply chain challenges normalize, we would expect volumes to align more with demand.

在第四季結束之際，我們清楚看到 Omicron 的影響，12 月運量受到勞動力與供應鏈中斷的衝擊。這些挑戰延續到新的一年，但我們也看到客戶在其營運中面臨人力短缺。就一般貨運、聯運與煤炭市場而言，需求訊號仍然強勁。隨著供應鏈挑戰逐步常態化，我們預期運量將更貼近需求水準。

Finally, I would like to highlight the positive results we have achieved by working with customers on new business development projects. Over the last few months, we have seen 3 significant announcements of new production facilities to be located along the CSX railroad, including 2 electric vehicle plants and a new steel mill. These projects are a team effort and show the ability of sales and marketing team and partnership with operations, to creatively come up with solutions that meet the requirements of our customers. Importantly, these projects represent significant long-term value to CSX.

最後，我想強調我們透過與客戶合作推動新業務開發專案所取得的正面成果。過去幾個月，我們看到 3 項重大公告，新的生產設施將設於 CSX 鐵路沿線，其中包括 2 座電動車工廠以及一座新鋼鐵廠。這些專案是團隊共同努力的成果，也展現銷售與行銷團隊與營運部門合作，能以創新方式提出符合客戶需求的解決方案。更重要的是，這些專案為 CSX 帶來可觀的長期價值。

Now let's discuss the progress CSX is making when it comes to our commitment to sustainability as summarized on Slide 6. Rail is the most efficient form of land-based transportation, and CSX is the most fuel-efficient Class 1 railroad -- U.S. Class 1 railroad. By using CSX Rail in 2021, our customers avoided 11 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions, which is equivalent to taking 2.3 million passenger vehicles off the road, an amount greater than all the hybrid and electric vehicles operating in the U.S. today. We are proud of the recognition we have received for these efforts to date.

接著我們來談談 CSX 在永續承諾方面的進展，如第 6 頁投影片所摘要。鐵路是陸上運輸中效率最高的方式，而 CSX 是美國一級鐵路（Class 1 railroad）中燃油效率最高者。客戶在 2021 年使用 CSX 鐵路運輸，避免了 1,100 萬公噸二氧化碳排放，約等同於讓 230 萬輛乘用車退出道路行駛，這個數量甚至超過目前在美國運行的所有油電混合車與電動車總和。我們為迄今所獲得的相關肯定感到自豪。

By organizations such as CDP, Dow Jones and Forbes, but we are certainly not done. CSX continues to invest in existing technologies to drive further improvement, and we continue to evaluate emerging technologies so we are prepared to realize those benefits when available. We are excited to see our customers increase focus on improving their carbon footprint. Customer engagement on ESG has accelerated and we have seen them double their usage of CSX-provided tools that help them calculate emission savings from switching to rail. You'll also see later this quarter, we will be recognizing customers for their efforts in prioritizing carbon emission savings by converting traditional truck volume to rail.

這些肯定來自 CDP、道瓊（Dow Jones）與《富比士》（Forbes）等機構，但我們當然不會就此止步。CSX 持續投資既有技術以推動進一步改善，同時也持續評估新興技術，以便在其可用時做好準備並實現相關效益。我們很高興看到客戶更加重視改善其碳足跡。客戶在 ESG 方面的互動已加速，我們也看到他們使用 CSX 所提供工具的次數倍增，這些工具可協助其計算由公路轉向鐵路所節省的排放量。此外，在本季稍晚，我們也將表揚客戶，肯定其透過將傳統卡車運量轉換為鐵路運輸而優先實現碳排節省的努力。

I will now pass it over to Jamie to discuss our operations.

接下來我把時間交給 Jamie，請他談談我們的營運狀況。

All right. Thank you, Kevin, and good afternoon. As Jim referenced, we are working very hard to provide customers the capacity to help overcome the persistent supply chain challenges. One of the areas we have discussed in our ongoing T&E hiring initiative, this effort is beginning to pay dividends as more employees finish training and begin moving freight. We are also encouraged to see ongoing hiring momentum to start the year as we continue to consistently fill weekly training classes while maintaining a strong pipeline of candidates. In total, we roughly doubled the average number of active trainees in the quarter. Also, the number of employees qualifying and moving to active status increased almost 50% sequentially in the fourth quarter to approximately 150. And we expect this number to double to over 300 employees in the first quarter.

好的。謝謝你，Kevin，各位下午好。如 Jim 所提到的，我們正非常努力為客戶提供運能，以協助克服持續的供應鏈挑戰。我們持續推動的其中一個重點是運輸與引擎（T&E）招募計畫；隨著更多員工完成訓練並開始運送貨物，這項努力正開始帶來成效。我們也很振奮地看到新年伊始招募動能持續，因為我們在維持強勁候選人管道的同時，也持續穩定地填滿每週訓練班。整體而言，本季在訓練中的在訓人數平均值約為前一季的兩倍。此外，第四季取得資格並轉為正式上線（active）狀態的員工人數，較前一季增加近 50% 至約 150 人。我們預期第一季此數字將倍增至 300 人以上。

Recently, the benefit of these additional employees have been offset by the rapid rise in COVID cases across the network. Average daily cases have increased by several hundred employees since early November and are approaching prior peak levels. That said, there is no doubt that the hiring actions taken to date have allowed us to better manage the current situation. We have also supplemented this hiring by bringing additional assets online to help offset network imbalance caused by pockets of concentrated case counts. We will maintain these tactical asset increases as needed to protect service. Our work to improve asset utilization and drive increased operating efficiency as employees return to work and our ongoing hire initiatives provide the necessary resources to move incremental volumes and deliver the expected high-quality service to our customers.

近期，這些新增人力所帶來的效益，部分被全網路 COVID 病例快速上升所抵銷。自 11 月初以來，每日平均病例數增加了數百名員工，並接近先前高峰水準。即便如此，毫無疑問，迄今採取的招募行動使我們能更妥善地管理目前情勢。我們也透過讓更多資產上線來補強招募，以協助抵銷因部分區域病例集中而造成的網路失衡。我們將視需要維持這些戰術性的資產增加，以保障服務。我們也將持續改善資產使用率並提升營運效率；隨著員工回到工作崗位，以及持續的招募計畫提供必要資源，我們將能承接增量運量，並向客戶交付預期的高品質服務。

Additionally, until along the way capacity improves at intermodal terminals, we will continue making the necessary investments to keep terminals fluid by providing the overflow space and supplemental labor required to move long dwelling boxes out of our terminals. We're also continuing to take a long-term approach to network and infrastructure planning and have identified several strategic siding extension opportunities that will provide additional long-term capacity by helping to alleviate congestion while also supporting growth for years to come.

此外，在聯運場站的處理能力逐步改善之前，我們將持續進行必要投資，透過提供溢出空間與補充人力，將在場站停留時間過長的貨櫃（boxes）移出，以維持場站運作順暢。我們也持續以長期視角進行路網與基礎設施規劃，並已辨識出數個具策略性的會車線（siding）延伸機會，這些機會將透過緩解壅塞來提供額外的長期運能，同時也支援未來多年成長。

As always, we will pursue these initiatives while maintaining a balanced train plan and a continued focus on strong execution to maximize both reliability and service for our customers. I want to thank the entire operating team for the hard work and long hours they put in to keep freight moving for our customers. Despite the incremental headwinds this quarter, service metrics remained consistent with the prior quarter, and we are taking the necessary steps to drive these metrics back towards pre-pandemic levels over the course of 2022.

一如既往，我們將在維持均衡的列車計畫並持續專注於強力執行的同時推動這些倡議，以最大化我們為客戶提供的可靠性與服務。我想感謝整個營運團隊為了讓貨運持續為客戶運行所付出的辛勤努力與長時間工作。儘管本季面臨額外的不利因素，服務指標仍與上一季保持一致，我們正採取必要措施，於 2022 年期間推動這些指標回到疫情前水準。

Turning to Slide 8. Safety remains fundamental to everything we do at CSX, and we hold ourselves to the highest standard for our employees, customers and the communities in which we work and operate. Our hard work to instill a culture of safety at CSX continues to drive positive results. As shown by the reduction in our train accident headcount this -- train accident rate this year.

接著看第 8 頁投影片。安全仍是 CSX 所做一切的根本，我們對員工、客戶以及我們工作與營運所在的社區，皆以最高標準自我要求。我們致力於在 CSX 深植安全文化的努力，持續帶來正面成果。如今年列車事故人數的下降所示——今年的列車事故率下降。

Heading into 2022, we continue to target further reductions in human factor incidents through a combination of increased awareness, best practice sharing, collaboration across regions and expanding our successful drone program. We are also engaging with our new hires to instill our principles of safe operations and emphasize our commitment to make CSX the safest running railroad.

展望 2022 年，我們將透過提高意識、分享最佳實務、跨區域協作，以及擴大我們成功的無人機計畫等多管齊下的方式，持續以進一步降低人為因素事件為目標。我們也將與新進員工互動，灌輸安全營運原則，並強調我們致力於讓 CSX 成為營運最安全的鐵路。

I will now hand it to Sean to review our financial results.

接下來我把時間交給 Sean，請他回顧我們的財務結果。

Thank you, Jamie, and good afternoon. As you've heard, operating income grew double digits up $151 million with revenue up 21% on gains across all major markets. Below the line, interest and other expense was $60 million favorable, reflecting the prior year debt repurchase expense. Income taxes were up on higher pretax income, though we recognized $25 million in benefits this quarter, primarily related to state tax adjustments. As a result, EPS of $0.42 was up 27% versus the prior year.

謝謝你，Jamie，大家午安。如各位所聽到的，營業利益以雙位數成長，增加 1.51 億美元；營收在所有主要市場皆有成長帶動下，上升 21%。在營業利益以下，利息及其他費用有利 6,000 萬美元，反映前一年債務回購費用。所得稅因稅前所得較高而增加，不過本季我們認列 2,500 萬美元的稅務利益，主要與州稅調整相關。因此，每股盈餘（EPS）0.42 美元，較去年同期成長 27%。

Now I'd like to take a minute to walk through operating expense in more detail on the next slide. Total costs increased $451 million or 28% in the quarter. The addition of Quality Carriers drove approximately $200 million of the increase. Higher fuel prices were also a significant factor, driving costs up about $115 million versus last year. Nonlocomotive fuel inflation remained consistent with prior quarters, just above 3%. So as we turn the page to 2022, we expect a number around 4%.

接著我想花一點時間，在下一張投影片更詳細說明營業費用。本季總成本增加 4.51 億美元或 28%。併入 Quality Carriers 約帶來 2 億美元的增幅。燃料價格上漲也是重要因素，使成本較去年增加約 1.15 億美元。非機車燃料通膨與前幾季一致，略高於 3%。因此進入 2022 年，我們預期約在 4% 左右。

Drilling into a few specific line items, labor and fringe increased $115 million or 20% in the quarter. Quality was about $30 million. Incentive compensation was a nearly $40 million headwind in the quarter, largely due to higher expected payouts versus last year and the impact of accelerated expense for certain employees. As Jamie discussed, we continue to focus on hiring and retaining train and engine employees. We invested over $20 million in new programs targeting our T&E workforce. In line with these efforts, average headcount increased by 230 or 1% sequentially.

進一步看幾個特定科目，本季人事與福利增加 1.15 億美元或 20%，其中 Quality 約 3,000 萬美元。激勵性薪酬本季帶來近 4,000 萬美元的不利因素，主要因預期發放金額高於去年，以及部分員工費用加速認列的影響。如 Jamie 所述，我們持續專注於招募與留任列車與機車人員。我們在針對運輸與機務（T&E）人力的新計畫上投資超過 2,000 萬美元。配合這些努力，平均人數較前一季增加 230 人或 1%。

Labor inflation remained in line with prior quarters, though is expected to be slightly higher in 2022. Purchase services and other expense increased $198 million or 44% in the quarter. As a reminder, this is where most of the quality expense shows up, approximately $130 million. Also, you may recall that we expected investments in supply chain fluidity to result in higher costs on this line. And we saw about $45 million of increased expense as we worked tirelessly to drive network and terminal fluidity in light of unprecedented challenges. We expect these costs will persist until we see a normalization of labor in the broader supply chain.

人力通膨仍與前幾季一致，但預期 2022 年會略高。本季採購服務及其他費用增加 1.98 億美元或 44%。提醒一下，Quality 的大部分費用會反映在此科目，約 1.3 億美元。此外，各位可能記得我們預期為提升供應鏈流動性所做的投資，將使此科目成本上升。面對前所未有的挑戰，我們不懈努力以提升網路與場站的流動性，因此約增加 4,500 萬美元費用。我們預期在更廣泛供應鏈的人力狀況恢復正常之前，這些成本仍將持續。

The remaining increase reflected both the impact of inflation as well as a number of smaller items. Depreciation was up 4% on a higher asset base. Fuel costs were up on higher price and trucking fuel. Rents were up slightly and we had about $20 million of higher real estate gains. Going forward, you can expect a modest level of base real estate gains, similar to the $35 million we recognized in 2020 as we shift our focus towards leveraging the real estate portfolio to support growth initiatives. However, the Virginia transaction will continue to impact results in 2022 with a $20 million gain in Q1 and a $120 million gain expected in Q2. We anticipate receiving the final $125 million of cash in Q4.

其餘增幅反映通膨影響以及若干較小項目。折舊因資產基礎較高而增加 4%。燃料成本因價格上升及卡車燃料而增加。租金略增，且我們約有 2,000 萬美元較高的不動產收益。展望未來，隨著我們將重心轉向運用不動產組合以支持成長倡議，您可預期基礎不動產收益維持在溫和水準，類似我們在 2020 年認列的 3,500 萬美元。然而，維吉尼亞交易將在 2022 年持續影響結果：第一季將有 2,000 萬美元收益，第二季預期有 1.2 億美元收益。我們預期在第四季收到最後 1.25 億美元現金。

Now turning to cash flow on Slide 11. On a full year basis, free cash flow before dividends increased 45% to $3.8 billion. As a reminder, this includes $400 million from Virginia and over $500 million of total proceeds from property dispositions. Cash and short-term investments finished the year at $2.3 billion. While this remains elevated, we nevertheless expect to continue to work the balance down this year, the levels more in line with our historical liquidity needs. After fully funding capital investments, shareholder returns exceeded $3.7 billion. We will continue to be balanced and opportunistic in our buyback approach, and we remain committed to returning excess cash to our shareholders.

接著看第 11 頁投影片的現金流。以全年計，自由現金流（股利前）增加 45% 至 38 億美元。提醒一下，其中包含來自維吉尼亞的 4 億美元，以及資產處分總收入超過 5 億美元。年末現金及短期投資為 23 億美元。雖然水位仍偏高，但我們仍預期今年將持續降低餘額，使其更符合我們歷史上的流動性需求。在充分投入資本投資後，股東回饋超過 37 億美元。我們將持續以均衡且把握時機的方式進行庫藏股回購，並仍致力於將多餘現金回饋給股東。

With that, let me turn it back to Jim for his closing remarks.

接下來，我把時間交還給 Jim，請他做結語。

Great. Thanks, Sean. Let's conclude with our outlook for the year on Slide 13. We remain optimistic about the opportunity to grow this year, driven by a combination of strong underlying economic momentum and supply chain recovery. Based on these expected tailwinds, we are targeting GDP-plus volume growth for the year. Volume should build sequentially throughout the year as supply chain bottlenecks ease. As a result, growth in the second half of the year is expected to be greater than in the first half. This growth will be supported by the initiatives Jamie reviewed to appropriately resource our network for the current demand environment and to ensure we can provide customers with a consistently strong service product. We also expect -- we also expect pricing to benefit from a combination of market forces including very strong demand for transportation services. Full year capital expenditures are planned at approximately $2 billion.

很好。謝謝你，Sean。讓我們在第 13 頁投影片以今年展望作結。我們對今年的成長機會仍抱持樂觀，動能來自強勁的基本面經濟動能與供應鏈復甦的結合。基於這些預期的順風因素，我們以全年運量成長高於 GDP（GDP-plus）為目標。隨著供應鏈瓶頸緩解，運量應會在全年逐季走高。因此，預期下半年成長將高於上半年。此成長將由 Jamie 所回顧的各項倡議所支持，以在目前需求環境下適當配置我們的網路資源，並確保能為客戶提供一貫強勁的服務產品。我們也預期——我們也預期定價將受惠於多項市場力量的組合，包括對運輸服務非常強勁的需求。全年資本支出規劃約 20 億美元。

Our top capital priority is and always has been maintaining and improving the safety and reliability of our network. In 2022, we will replace in excess of 500 miles of rail as we continue to focus on the core infrastructure. The cost of this capital work has been offset by significant improvements in the efficiency of our engineering programs. While we expect to drive further efficiencies in 2022, our plan reflects the impact of increased inflation, any number of discrete strategic investment opportunities. We will continually evaluate future strategic opportunities as they come along, but still have ample capacity across our network to absorb future volume growth.

我們最優先的資本項目一直都是維持並提升網路的安全與可靠性。2022 年，我們將更換超過 500 英里的鐵軌，持續聚焦核心基礎設施。這些資本工程的成本已被我們工程計畫效率的顯著改善所抵銷。雖然我們預期 2022 年將進一步提升效率，但我們的計畫也反映通膨上升的影響，以及若干個別的策略性投資機會。我們將持續評估未來出現的策略機會，但我們的網路仍有充足產能可吸收未來運量成長。

And finally, after investing in the railroad and high-return growth projects, we remain committed to returning excess capital to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share buybacks. We are entering the year with strong demand across the economy, but shippers are facing ongoing challenges from the lack of capacity in labor, materials and transportation. Our focus remains supporting our customers by providing effective rail solutions to overcome these persistent bottlenecks. As I said earlier, we are encouraged by the progress we are making, and we expect our actions combined with an improving global supply chain will provide a year of steadily improving growth.

最後，在投資鐵路本業與高報酬成長專案之後，我們仍致力於透過股利與股票回購的組合，將多餘資本回饋給股東。我們在強勁的整體經濟需求下進入新的一年，但託運人仍面臨勞動力、材料與運輸產能不足所帶來的持續挑戰。我們的重點仍是透過提供有效的鐵路解決方案來支持客戶，以克服這些持續的瓶頸。如我先前所說，我們對目前取得的進展感到鼓舞，並預期我們的行動結合全球供應鏈改善，將帶來一年穩步改善的成長。

Thank you, and I'll turn it back to Matthew for questions.

謝謝各位，我把時間交還給 Matthew 進行提問。

Thanks, Jim. Now in the interest of time, I'd ask if everyone please limit yourselves to one question.

謝謝你，Jim。基於時間考量，我想請大家每人限制一個問題。

And with that, operator, we will now take questions.

那麼，接線員，我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

（接線員指示）第一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Brandon Oglenski。

Congrats, Matt. I guess you guys didn't provide any discussion on forward profitability or margins and I get it. You have the lapping of Quality Carriers plus lower estate gains. So I guess can you talk to the core efficiencies in the business and how you plan to leverage growth this year? Are there incremental opportunities for you guys to drive core profitability in (inaudible)?

恭喜你，Matt。我想你們沒有提供任何關於未來獲利能力或利潤率的討論，我也理解。你們有 Quality Carriers 的基期效應，再加上不動產收益較低。所以我想請你們談談業務中的核心效率，以及你們計畫如何在今年運用成長槓桿？你們是否有額外機會在（聽不清）推動核心獲利能力的提升？

Yes. Thanks, Brandon. This is Sean. So just to clear the record, so you're going into full year 2022, we're going to have the full year impact of Quality, going to have lower real estate gains, as I just outlined that together is about a 350 basis point impact. So kind of on a like-for-like basis, you're starting at a [59] OR.

是的。謝謝，Brandon。我是 Sean。為了釐清紀錄，你們進入 2022 全年時，我們將承受 Quality 的全年影響，房地產收益也會較低；如我剛才概述，兩者合計約影響 350 個基點。因此在可比基礎上，你是從約 [59] 的 OR（營運比率）起步。

Fundamentally, nothing has really changed about our story, right? Our expectation as we come out of the pandemic this year is for supply chains to normalize. As they do that, some of this some of the costs that we've added in order to better serve our customers will start to come down a little bit. But obviously, the incremental growth that we see stronger in the second half than in the first half of the year should be at good incremental margins. And so at the end of the day, I think the core story that you've seen over the last couple of years with us is the same next year or this year, as it's been. The only unknown is what's the pace of the normalization? How do we get -- how quickly do we overcome what we're seeing right now out there in the environment?

從根本上說，我們的故事其實沒有什麼改變，對吧？我們預期今年走出疫情後，供應鏈會逐步正常化。隨著正常化推進，為了更好服務客戶而增加的一些成本會開始略為下降。但很明顯，我們看到的增量成長在下半年會比上半年更強，而這些增量應該會帶來不錯的增量利潤率。總之，我認為你們過去幾年看到的核心故事，明年或今年都一樣，並沒有改變。唯一的不確定因素是正常化的速度：我們要如何——以及多快——克服目前外部環境中所看到的狀況？

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Just wanted to ask, Kevin, maybe you can go through some of the puts and takes of the outlook for some of the key end markets. And Sean just talked about some of the uncertainty around the supply chains, but where do you feel like you have some maybe more opportunities that could come to bear and where you see some of the challenges? And then if you can layer in some of the impact of those new business development wins. Sounds like you might be a little bit more longer dated, but is it too early to see some benefit from those?

我想問一下，Kevin，也許你可以談談對幾個主要終端市場展望中的一些利多與利空。Sean 剛才提到供應鏈的不確定性，但你覺得哪些地方可能有更多機會逐步顯現、哪些地方又有一些挑戰？另外，如果能把那些新業務開發的勝利所帶來的影響也納入考量。聽起來可能是較長週期的，但現在要看到一些效益是否還太早？

Yes. Thanks, Brian. Look, there's a lot of demand tailwinds that we see, there's pretty robust demand across pretty much every end market currently. So we're optimistic there. Sean pointed out that supply chain challenges. And I think the timing of those normalizing is probably the biggest question as we move into second, third or fourth quarter, kind of when does that really translate into some better fluidity out there for us.

是的。謝謝，Brian。你看，我們看到很多需求面的順風，目前幾乎所有終端市場的需求都相當強勁，所以我們對此感到樂觀。Sean 也指出供應鏈的挑戰。我認為，隨著我們進入第二、第三或第四季，最大的問題大概是它們何時能正常化——也就是何時才能真正轉化為對我們而言更好的流動性與順暢度。

But starting with merchandise, really it's a story of auto. When do the autos really start and production really start to come back online. When you look at current estimates, it's really for our back half story on the volume. And certainly, autos drive more than just the carloads in the auto side, it's touch of the metals business, plastics business for us as well. So auto is going to be very, very important. Certainly, we all know the demand. We've all been to the local dealership and they don't have any new cars. And if you want a new car, you probably got to wait 12 months. So that's -- the demand is there. There's no question about it.

先從商品運輸（merchandise）來看，基本上就是汽車的故事：汽車何時真正開始、產量何時真正回到正軌。從目前的預估來看，量的回升主要會落在我們下半年的故事上。而且汽車不只帶動汽車相關的車皮量，也會帶動我們的金屬業務、塑膠業務等。因此汽車將非常、非常重要。當然，我們都知道需求存在。我們都去過當地經銷商，他們根本沒有新車；如果你想買新車，可能得等 12 個月。所以——需求就在那裡，毫無疑問。

Where we see right now, the metals business is very strong. Plastics remains very, very strong. Probably the only thing that we're really seeing weak and I touched on a little bit as the energy market. And then that's all about spreads, and spreads can collapse and then gap out again. So we'll continue to watch those and we'll benefit if those get more positive in the future.

就我們目前看到的情況，金屬業務非常強勁。塑膠仍然非常、非常強。可能唯一真正偏弱的——我也稍微提到過——是能源市場。而那完全取決於價差（spreads）；價差可能會收斂、也可能再度擴大。因此我們會持續觀察；若未來價差轉為更正向，我們也會因此受益。

On the intermodal side, we've really benefited from the international market, and we see no slowdown at this point. There's still a lot of ships waiting at the port to get in, and we've been very successful in moving that freight and we continue to have the operations, and I think we'll continue to benefit from that. The domestic side is really where we've seen the disruption, and that's been largely due to the driver shortage, the equipment shortages that we're seeing on the chassis side. And to be honest, I think the chassis problem seems to be being pushed out every month. I know that the suppliers are having a hard time ramping up production, but that's probably going to a second half story in terms of the chassis as far as we see it right now. So -- but we do see the underlying demand there, and I think that's a good positive story for us into the back half of the year.

在聯運（intermodal）方面，我們確實受惠於國際市場，目前看不到放緩跡象。港口外仍有許多船隻等待進港，而我們在運送這些貨物方面非常成功；我們也持續具備相應的營運能力，我認為我們會繼續從中受益。國內市場才是我們看到干擾的地方，主要原因是司機短缺，以及我們在底盤（chassis）方面看到的設備短缺。坦白說，我覺得底盤問題似乎每個月都在往後延。我知道供應商在提升產能方面遇到困難，但就我們目前所見，底盤問題大概會是下半年的故事。所以——不過我們確實看到潛在需求存在，我認為這對我們在今年下半年是個正面的故事。

And then finally, when moving to coal. The demand is outstripping supply. You see it in the export benchmark prices. They're incredibly strong right now. We're at all-time highs almost and when you look at the met and thermal markets today. And so we have some opportunity there. The mines had struggled, quite frankly. They're underinvested. They had a hard time ramping back up production, some have dealt with strikes, some have dealt with other problems. And -- but those things should normalize, hopefully, and we should see the benefit of that. We've also seen recently a new mine come online, and so that should help us as we get through the year. But those -- I think the biggest question is how long do the export prices stay at these levels, but we would expect hopefully volume to pick up as we move through the year. Those are some of the moving parts through the markets.

最後談到煤炭。需求正在超過供給。你可以從出口基準價格看出來——目前非常強勁，幾乎處於歷史高點；無論是冶金煤（met）或動力煤（thermal）市場都是如此。因此我們在那裡有一些機會。坦白說，礦山一直很掙扎：投資不足、產能回升不易，有些遇到罷工，有些遇到其他問題。而——但希望這些狀況能逐步正常化，我們也應該能看到其帶來的好處。最近我們也看到一座新礦投入運作，這應該能在今年推進過程中幫到我們。不過——我認為最大的問題是出口價格能在這些水準維持多久；但我們希望，隨著今年推進，運量能回升。以上是市場中的一些變動因素。

All right. If I can ask for just a quick comment on coal inventory levels. Do you think you can see some restocking, given some of the dynamics you talked about with demand outstripping supply, specifically on the domestic utility side?

好的。如果我可以再問一個關於煤炭庫存水位的簡短問題：考量你提到的需求大於供給等動態，尤其是在國內公用事業端，你認為會看到一些補庫存（restocking）嗎？

Yes. Coal levels, particularly in our Southern utilities are very low. So there's restocking as needed. We're working really closely with our customers. And I would expect that to persist through this year and probably in the next.

是的。煤炭庫存水位——特別是在我們南部的公用事業客戶——非常低。因此會視需要進行補庫存。我們正與客戶非常密切地合作。我預期這種情況會延續到今年，可能也會延續到明年。

Your next question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀（UBS）的 Tom Wadewitz。

Wanted to ask you a bit about how closely we should tie your own capacity and your growth in conductors coming out of the training classes. It seems like you have a nice pipeline and a nice ramp up in that. How closely should we tie that volume growth to that ramp in your capacity? And is that the right way to think about it? Or do you think that the factors outside your control in broader supply chain are kind of a bigger variable in terms of your volume growth?

我想問一下，我們應該把你們自身的運能，以及你們從培訓班結業後列車司機（conductors）人數的成長，連結得多緊密？看起來你們有不錯的人才管道，也有不錯的爬坡速度。我們應該在多大程度上把運量成長與你們運能提升的爬坡相連結？這樣思考是否正確？還是你認為在更廣泛的供應鏈中、那些你們無法控制的因素，才是影響運量成長更大的變數？

Tom, it's Jim. Just generally, clearly CSX is no different than any other industry right now, where we have been challenged finding people to come to work. And because we have been short on our train and engine service employees, simple fact is we have not been able to move the amount of freight we could have, and we've been staffed up at the appropriate levels. That's why we've been talking for the last year at least about our attempts to try and ramp up the hiring of operating employees. And as Jamie said, we're starting now just down after 12 months of very, very hard work to get it back to a positive growth number in terms of the number of employees. And when we do that, we'll be able to move more freight. Jamie, do you want to add more detail?

Tom，我是 Jim。一般來說，很明顯 CSX 現在跟其他任何產業一樣，都面臨招募人員來上班的挑戰。由於我們列車與機務（train and engine）服務人員不足，簡單的事實是：我們無法運送本來可以運送的貨量，因為人力沒有配置到適當水準。這也是為什麼至少過去一年我們一直在談，如何加速招募營運人員的努力。正如 Jamie 所說，經過 12 個月非常、非常辛苦的努力，我們現在才剛開始讓員工人數回到正成長。當我們做到這一點，就能運送更多貨物。Jamie，你要不要補充更細的內容？

Yes. I think Jim pretty much nailed it. Look, this is probably one of the most difficult environments we've ever seen. When you think about all the stuff the rail industry has gone through over the past 10, 20 years, my 25 years of railroading, I can tell you, when you come in one week and you've got 60 people off on COVID and new variant comes through, you got 350 off on COVID on your T&E side, you really start to feel the effects. And believe me, Kevin and I are talking all the time about the opportunities of moving as much product as we can for our customers. And not only just the product that we currently have with our current customers, but the growth side of things and what else can we move out there.

是的。我想 Jim 基本上說到重點了。你看，這可能是我們見過最困難的環境之一。回想鐵路產業在過去 10、20 年經歷的所有事情，以我 25 年的鐵路從業經驗來說，我可以告訴你：當你某一週進來，因為 COVID 有 60 個人請假；接著新的變異株來襲，你的列車與機務（T&E）端有 350 個人因 COVID 缺勤，你就會真的感受到影響。相信我，Kevin 和我一直在討論，如何為客戶盡可能多地運送產品的機會；不僅是我們目前既有客戶的既有貨量，還包括成長面——以及我們還能在外面多運什麼。

So to Jim's point, our hiring classes have over -- I would say, probably the past 2 months have been extremely successful. We are putting 150-plus T&E while new conductors, I guess, through our training center in Atlanta. And we continue every single week to hold a new class. And I'm proud to say that all the hard work our HR team has done through Diana Sorfleet. It's paying up. And honestly, when we start looking at where we're going to be in 3 or 4 months from now, we're going to be a different look in railroad and these opportunities that Kevin is talking about is going to be opportunities that we're going after.

所以呼應 Jim 的觀點，我們的招募班次在——我會說，可能過去 2 個月非常成功。我們在亞特蘭大訓練中心讓 150 名以上的運輸與機務（T&E）新列車長接受訓練。我想是這樣。而且我們每週都持續開設新班。我很自豪地說，我們人資團隊在 Diana Sorfleet 的帶領下所做的所有努力正在見效。坦白說，當我們開始看 3 到 4 個月後我們會處於什麼狀態時，我們的鐵路營運面貌將會不同，而 Kevin 所談到的這些機會，也會是我們要積極爭取的機會。

So are you optimistic about a quick improvement related to Omicron or really just focus on second quarter for that improvement in capacity?

所以你對與 Omicron 相關的快速改善感到樂觀嗎？還是其實只是把改善運能的重點放在第二季？

Yes, Tom, it's Jim. We're thinking about maybe getting an epidemiologist on staff. So if you're ready to step up and tell us, this is it, this is going to be over in 2 months, and we're not going to see another one, you can start tomorrow.

是的，Tom，我是 Jim。我們在想也許要聘一位流行病學家加入團隊。所以如果你準備好挺身而出告訴我們：就是這樣，2 個月內就會結束，而且不會再出現下一波，那你明天就可以上班。

Sounds like second quarter. Thank you, Jim.

聽起來是第二季。謝謝你，Jim。

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Wetherbee with Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團（Citigroup）的 Chris Wetherbee。

Maybe I wanted to ask a question on pricing. So Kevin, maybe when you think about renewals for 2022, maybe how -- what the opportunity set is there and maybe how those are progressing as we've gotten through the month of January here? And then on the coal side, any help you can give us with how to think about yields and maybe just the first half of the year or over the course of 2022? I know the thermal exports are probably a full year renewal, so maybe you have some uplift there, but I think some of the met stuff is a little bit more closer to market. So if you could just help us with those points, that would be great.

我想問一個關於定價的問題。Kevin，當你思考 2022 年的續約時，或許可以談談——那裡的機會組合是什麼，以及隨著我們走過 1 月，這些進展如何？另外在煤炭方面，你能否協助我們理解該如何看待單位收益（yields），也許是上半年或整個 2022 年？我知道動力煤出口可能是全年續約，所以那裡或許有一些上調空間，但我認為部分冶金煤（met）的合約更貼近市場。如果你能就這些點提供一些看法，會非常好。

Yes. So let me cover the pricing side first, and obviously, we're going to get this question. The market is -- clearly, there's tight from the supply chain from the transportation side. You've seen our primary competition, truck rates are up significantly, and we're having to react to that, obviously, in what we're doing. But also working with customers on opportunities for them to convert more freight over to rail. In this high inflation market, they're looking for ways that they can save on their transportation costs and rail is almost every time the most economical solution for them. And so those discussions, I'm happy to say are really accelerating now and talking to Jamie every day on what we can do.

好的。我先談定價面，顯然我們會被問到這個問題。市場——很明顯，從運輸端來看，供應鏈相當吃緊。你也看到我們主要競爭對手——卡車運價大幅上升，而我們也必須對此做出反應，這當然反映在我們的作為上。同時，我們也與客戶合作，尋找讓他們把更多貨量從公路轉到鐵路的機會。在這個高通膨的市場裡，他們在找方法節省運輸成本，而鐵路幾乎每次都是對他們而言最具經濟效益的解決方案。因此我很高興地說，這些討論現在確實正在加速，我也每天和 Jamie 討論我們能做些什麼。

So that's a really real positive for us. So I would say, certainly, the market is better than it was last year. We're working with customers. They understand the cost pressures that are out there across the world, they're seeing it. They're asking their customers for the same. So we're seeing some positive momentum on that side.

所以這對我們來說是非常實質的正面因素。我會說，市場狀況確實比去年好。我們正與客戶合作，他們理解全球各地存在的成本壓力，他們也看得到。他們也在向自己的客戶提出同樣的要求。因此我們在這方面看到一些正向動能。

In terms of coal, I mentioned it in my opening remarks, export coal prices, benchmarks are at highs what we've assumed. And your guess is probably as good as mine as that will moderate through the year. But what I can tell you is if the economy reaccelerates post Omicron and China demand continues to be strong, then who knows it could last much longer. But what our assumption going forward is that likely those prices will come down. So that will impact the yields somewhat in the back half of the year. But offsetting that somewhat we would expect maybe some volume progress as the producers ramp up some of their production as one of the new coal mines that I mentioned comes online as perhaps one of the coal mines that we serve resolved their strike and there's another major mine that we have right now that's shut down completely. So hopefully, some of those things come back online and help us on the volume side.

至於煤炭，我在開場致詞中提到過，出口煤價格、基準價格都處在高於我們假設的水準。你對它在今年會如何趨於緩和的猜測，可能跟我一樣好。但我能告訴你的是，如果 Omicron 之後經濟重新加速、而中國需求持續強勁，那誰知道，這種狀況可能會維持更久。不過我們接下來的假設是，這些價格很可能會下滑。因此這會在今年下半年對單位收益造成一些影響。但在某種程度上，我們預期可由一些因素抵銷：例如生產商在我提到的新煤礦投產後提高產量；或是我們服務的一座煤礦解決罷工問題；以及我們目前還有另一座大型煤礦完全停工。希望其中一些能恢復運作，並在貨量面給我們帶來幫助。

That's great. And just quickly, merchandise and intermodal, how much of the contracts come up for renewal at the beginning of the year?

很好。再快速問一下，雜貨（merchandise）和聯運（intermodal）方面，每年年初有多少合約會到期續約？

Yes, we see about 50% to 60% renewed annually and about, call it, 75% of those in the first and fourth quarters of the year.

是的，我們每年大約有 50% 到 60% 會續約，而其中大約——可以說——75% 會集中在每年的第一季和第四季。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Ken Hoexter。

Jim, Union Pacific this morning talked about growing faster than industrial production or about 4.8% for their level of carloads. You picked GDP in your outlook. I just want to understand kind of trying to parse your growth target, which includes services on GDP. So can you kind of talk about that overall target or maybe that's a Sean question. And then you're now more than half a year in with quality. Are you seeing any of the contributions that you expected at this point from the acquisition?

Jim，聯合太平洋（Union Pacific）今天早上談到他們的車皮量（carloads）成長會快於工業生產，或大約 4.8%。你在展望中選用 GDP。我想理解你們的成長目標該如何解讀，因為 GDP 包含服務業。所以你能談談這個整體目標嗎？或者這可能是 Sean 的問題。另外，你們在 quality 這項收購上已經超過半年了。你們是否在此時點看到一些原本預期的貢獻？

Yes, I think we're comfortable with the quality so far. I mean, it's playing out as we had expected. The customer enthusiasm about this product that we have in the marketplace now is very good. A lot of conversations ongoing about converting to a transload type of operation versus truck direct. So -- and we haven't even got the equipment yet here from -- to utilize some of the ISO containers, which will help this conversion even more. So all in, yes, I mean, they're a great team, really smart people, extremely enthusiastic and excited about this opportunity so far. I think Sean is probably better to mediate between Lance's view of growth in mind.

是的，我認為到目前為止我們對 quality 的表現感到滿意。我的意思是，它的發展符合我們的預期。客戶對我們現在在市場上提供的這項產品的熱情非常高。也有很多持續進行的對話，討論從卡車直送改為轉運（transload）型態的營運。所以——而且我們甚至還沒拿到設備——用來運用一些 ISO 貨櫃，這會讓這種轉換更進一步。總的來說，是的，他們是一個很棒的團隊，非常聰明的人，也對這個機會到目前為止非常熱情、非常興奮。我想 Sean 可能更適合在 Lance 對成長的看法之間做個協調。

I don't know about that, but I can just kind of give you a little bit of color, which I think Kevin really sort of already went through in terms of each of the markets and the puts and takes there. But I think the first half of the year or first quarter, at least on the auto side, we're going to continue to remain challenged. So -- and you can see it in our weekly numbers in terms of how that's trending. So the hope is that as we get into the second half of the year, that's part of kind of what drives the above GDP growth. Kevin also talked about some of the growth initiatives and the 3 he mentioned aren't the only 3. Obviously, there's a lot going on within the sales and marketing team in terms of attracting new business to the railroad. And then fundamentally, our ability to capture the demand picture that's out there, assuming that the recent momentum we've had on the hiring front continues and the tools that we're using in terms of retaining the employees we have continue to be successful, we grow the active T&E count, we're going to be able to move more volume.

我不確定是不是這樣，但我可以補充一些背景，我想 Kevin 其實已經就各個市場的利弊取捨大致說過了。不過我認為今年上半年，或至少第一季，在汽車業務方面我們仍會持續面臨挑戰。所以——你也可以從我們每週的數據看到趨勢。希望是當我們進入下半年時，這會成為推動高於 GDP 成長的一部分。Kevin 也談到一些成長計畫，而他提到的 3 項並不是唯一的 3 項。顯然，銷售與行銷團隊正在進行很多工作，以吸引新的業務到鐵路上。再者，從根本上說，只要我們近期在招募方面的動能能持續，以及我們用來留任現有員工的工具能持續成功、我們增加在職的 T&E 人數，我們就能運送更多貨量、承接更多需求。

Your next question comes from the line of Jon Chappell with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Jon Chappell。

Jamie, we spent a lot of time on labor for obvious reasons, not just impacting you, it's impacting your customers as well. But if we could go all the way back to a few quarters ago before it really kind of rears that we had in supply chain got into a real bad congestion issue. I know you were out in the field kind of looking for other type of improvements you can make within the network. So as we think about right-sizing the organization, getting through some of the supply chain congestion into normalized "fluidity", you guys seem to have a head start here. So are there other opportunities for you within the network whether it's just on trip plan performance or some of the cost levers in the back half of the year into '23 that you think being a front runner here, you have a real opportunity and a relative basis?

Jamie，基於顯而易見的原因，我們在勞動力上花了很多時間，這不只影響你們，也影響你們的客戶。但如果我們回到幾季前，在供應鏈真正惡化、出現嚴重壅塞之前，我知道你曾到現場尋找網路中其他可改善之處。所以當我們思考讓組織規模更適切、走出供應鏈壅塞並回到正常化的「流動性（fluidity）」時，你們似乎已經領先一步。那麼在網路內部是否還有其他機會——不論是行程計畫（trip plan）績效，或是今年下半年到 2023 年的一些成本槓桿——你認為因為你們是領跑者，所以在相對基礎上有很實質的機會？

John, we are always analyzing the railroad. So I'm going out there again next week to spend some time on the railroad, and we'll be analyzing again what we're doing with our plan out there. So of course, as market conditions change, and other factors that go on out there, we analyze what we do. Yes, we just finished finding different opportunities to service our customers better, particularly in the Carolinas. We spent a lot of time out there just over this past quarter.

Jon，我們一直都在分析這條鐵路。所以我下週會再到現場，在鐵路上花一些時間，我們也會再次分析我們在現場的計畫在做什麼。所以當然，隨著市場狀況改變，以及其他外部因素發生，我們會分析我們的作法。是的，我們剛完成尋找不同機會，以更好地服務客戶，特別是在卡羅萊納地區。就在過去這一季，我們在那裡投入了很多時間。

But as I mentioned, we've put some assets out there in order to ensure that we can provide the service that our customers require right now. So there are some expenses that go along with that. And we see a quarter or 2 from now as our hiring catches up to where we need it to be, we'll be able to pull those assets back and/or use those assets for continued growth as we move forward. So there is -- there absolutely is always an opportunity on our railroad. The job of the folks out there who are working really hard on the ground. Their job is to execute. The network centers job is to analyze. And I work between those folks to make sure we're making the right decisions, and we'll continue to do that. So yes, there's always opportunities. But I can tell you right now, our focus is on growth. Our focus is on service and our focus is to make sure we continue to balance those expenses along the way. So that's going to be where we continue to pushing towards 2022.

但如我提到的，我們已經把一些資產部署在外面，以確保我們能夠提供客戶目前所需要的服務。因此，這也會伴隨一些相關費用。我們預期在接下來一到兩個季度，隨著招募人力追上我們所需的水準，我們將能把那些資產收回來，並／或在往前推進時把那些資產用於持續成長。所以，確實——在我們的鐵路上永遠都有機會。那些在第一線非常努力工作的同仁，他們的工作是執行；網路中心的工作是分析。而我在兩者之間協調，確保我們做出正確的決策，我們也會持續這麼做。所以，是的，永遠都有機會。但我現在可以告訴你，我們的重點在成長；我們的重點在服務；我們的重點是確保一路上持續平衡這些費用。因此，這將是我們持續推進到 2022 年的方向。

Your next question comes from the line of Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Amit Mehrotra。

I just had a couple of quick hit questions and then one kind of maybe a broad one for Jim. But for Sean, I wasn't sure about this when you answered it earlier. Are the margins of the business going to improve on a year-over-year basis against the [58.1] OR that you did in 2021. And obviously, excluding Virginia, I understand the timing of the Quality Carriers acquisition and all that. But ex Virginia, are the margins going to improve year-over-year relative to the [58 spot 1]? And related to that, can you just talk about maybe what the expectations are on (inaudible) revenues year-over-year? Because I think that will probably be a little bit of a headwind in '22.

我有幾個很快的問題，然後還有一個可能比較宏觀、想問 Jim 的問題。先問 Sean，我不太確定你先前回答時的意思。相較於你們在 2021 年做到的 [58.1] 營運比率（OR），今年這個業務的利潤率是否會以年增的方式改善？當然，不含 Virginia 的話，我理解 Quality Carriers 收購案的時點等因素。但若排除 Virginia，利潤率是否會相較於 [58.1] 以年增方式改善？另外相關地，你能否談談對（聽不清）（inaudible）收入年增的預期？因為我認為那在 2022 年可能會帶來一些逆風。

And then sorry, Jim, one out of the box question a little bit. You've had great success leading CSX and the whole team over the last many years under very difficult circumstances for sure. What is the thought process around succession planning? Do you plan or are you willing to lead CSX for many, many more years to come? Or do you think there's some scope for change internal or external? Can you just talk about that? Because it's a question that I get and we get a lot and I thought it would be interesting to get your thoughts on it as well.

然後不好意思，Jim，再問一個比較跳脫框架的問題。過去很多年在非常艱難的情況下，你帶領 CSX 以及整個團隊取得很大的成功。關於接班規劃（succession planning）的思考是什麼？你是否計畫、或是否願意在未來很多很多年繼續領導 CSX？或者你認為內部或外部有一些變動的空間？你能談談這點嗎？因為這是我以及我們常被問到的問題，我覺得也很有意思聽聽你的看法。

Amit, this is Sean. I'll take the first 2 to begin with. So on your operating ratio question, you've got the 58.1 full year impact of quality. So what I was saying is that kind of takes you to a 59. So I think your question is, can we do better than that in 2022? And we're not going to give OR guidance today. And -- but that being said, I think we've kind of walked through all the factors that are going to drive growth, both in terms of our volumes, our revenues as well as operating income and what that means for OR. We go into the year with a little bit of an elevated cost profile. Probably in Q1, you're going to see costs that are largely similar to Q4, given that things have not gotten better from a supply chain and labor availability perspective. As we go through the year, we think that does improve. And if it does, then we also see volumes come along with it. And we think that sets us up very, very well.

Amit，我是 Sean。我先回答前兩個問題。關於你問的營運比率（OR），你提到的 58.1 是 Quality 全年影響後的數字。所以我剛才的意思是，那大概會把你帶到 59 左右。我想你的問題是：我們在 2022 年能不能做得比那更好？我們今天不會提供 OR 指引。不過話說回來，我們已經大致走過所有將推動成長的因素，包括運量、營收以及營業利益，還有這對 OR 的意涵。我們在年初的成本結構會稍微偏高。可能在第一季，你會看到成本大致與第四季相近，因為從供應鏈與勞動力可得性角度來看，情況並沒有變好。隨著年度推進，我們認為情況會改善；如果確實改善，我們也會看到運量隨之回升。我們認為這會讓我們處於非常、非常有利的位置。

There are other uncertainties. What happens in the coal market, export coal pricing and other factors like Kevin talked about? And then the other piece of it that you hit on was the other revenue. I think largely other revenue is going to trend with the broader supply chain because the issues that we're facing that are causing containers to dwell on the intermodal side are the same factors that we're facing more broadly in the economy between driver availability, chassis availability and so on. And so it's likely other revenue is going to remain elevated here in the first quarter. And then I would say our baseline expectation is that it begins to normalize starting next quarter and then hopefully sort of back to normal by the second half of the year, which means we're probably moving more volumes. So those are the factors.

還有其他不確定性，例如煤炭市場會怎麼走、出口煤價格，以及 Kevin 提到的其他因素。你提到的另一塊是其他收入（other revenue）。我認為其他收入大致會跟著更廣泛的供應鏈狀況走，因為我們面臨的問題——導致聯運（intermodal）端貨櫃滯留（dwell）的因素——在更廣泛的經濟中也是同樣的因素，包括司機可得性、底盤（chassis）可得性等等。因此，其他收入很可能在第一季仍維持在較高水準。接著我會說，我們的基準預期是從下一季開始逐步正常化，並希望在下半年左右回到正常水準，這也意味著我們可能會運送更多的量。以上是這些因素。

On the question of succession, clearly, it's been a topic since I got here, started in the beginning of 2018. You may recall, there's been quite a significant change in the management makeup here over that 4-year period. And it has always been my goal and has always been the goal of the Board to make sure that we had in place a rock-solid diligent succession planning process and the procedure to follow for all of the executive management jobs.

關於接班的問題，顯然自從我在 2018 年初來到這裡以來，這一直是個話題。你可能記得，在這 4 年期間，我們的管理團隊組成有相當顯著的變化。我一直以來的目標、也一直是董事會的目標，就是確保我們建立一套堅實、嚴謹的接班規劃流程，以及適用於所有高階管理職位的程序。

And I think when you talk on the call today and you heard these great new voices that are doing such an exceptional job. That's because of the diligence that went into making sure that we always have an available pipeline of qualified talent. And I could tell you from working with the Board, that's no different for my job. Our job and the board's job is to make sure when Jim decides to go whenever that might be, hopefully, it's when I decide, not when they decide. But whenever we're going to fill that job that we have qualified people, both internally and externally that can step right in and being a significant shareholder I hope even do a better job than I think I have done. Maybe other people disagree, but it's been an interesting ride.

而且我想你今天在電話會議上聽到這些很棒的新聲音、他們表現得非常出色，正是因為我們投入了很大的心力，確保我們始終有一條可用的合格人才管道。我也可以告訴你，從我與董事會合作的經驗來看，這對我的職位也沒有不同。我們的工作、以及董事會的工作，是確保當 Jim 決定要離開時——無論那會是什麼時候——希望是我決定的時候，而不是他們決定的時候。但無論何時要補上這個職位，我們都有合格的人選，內部與外部都包括在內，可以立刻接手。身為重要股東，我甚至希望他們能做得比我更好；也許有人不同意，但這一路走來確實很有意思。

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Nolan with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Ben Nolan。

I have 2, probably quick ones, if I can squeeze them in. The first is just when we're looking at the $2 billion of CapEx, curious if you might be able to parse that out between -- or what portion of that might actually be growth related. And the other one is you talked a little bit about coal, how it is, and I know there was an issue at Curtis Bay. How should we think about coal in the first quarter specifically?

我有兩個可能很快的問題，如果我能塞進去的話。第一個是，當我們看 20 億美元的資本支出（CapEx）時，想請教你是否能拆解一下其中有多少比例其實是與成長相關。第二個是，你談到一些關於煤炭的情況，我也知道 Curtis Bay 那邊有個問題。就第一季而言，我們應該如何看待煤炭？

Ben, this is Sean. I'll take your first question around the CapEx. And I would say CapEx is up about $200 million versus 2021. About half of that is related to growth investments. So Jamie talked a little bit about the sidings already, which set us up very well for the long term to grow into the capacity that he'll be creating. We're making some incremental investments on the technology side. Some of the quality investments in the ISO tanks fall into that category and then some commercial facilities. So lots of good high-return growth-oriented investments. The balance of the increase in capital is really driven by sort of inflation in the core infrastructure spend as well as a slight increase in hardening the core infrastructure for safety and reliability.

Ben，我是 Sean。我先回答你關於資本支出（CapEx）的第一個問題。我會說 CapEx 相較 2021 年增加約 2 億美元，其中大約一半與成長投資有關。Jamie 已經稍微提到側線（siding），這讓我們在長期能很好地成長並消化他將創造的產能。我們也在科技面做一些增量投資。Quality 在 ISO 槽罐（ISO tanks）上的一些投資也屬於這一類，另外還有一些商業設施。因此有很多不錯、報酬率高、以成長為導向的投資。資本增加的其餘部分，主要是由核心基礎設施支出的通膨所驅動，以及為了安全與可靠性而略微增加對核心基礎設施的強化投入。

I would just add on the CapEx side that the siding extensions we're looking at mostly on our L&M part of our property, which was down in the southern -- Southwestern part of the railroad where we had smaller sidings, it worked for us, but the growth coming out of some of that area through Alabama and other stuff that's going on. The need is there. So that's where the majority of this CapEx money is going to, and we're excited to get it out in that area to support that growth that Kevin and his group are bringing.

我再補充一下 CapEx 的部分：我們所看的側線延伸，主要是在我們資產中的 L&M 區段，也就是鐵路南部——西南部那一帶，過去我們的側線較短，當時也能運作，但隨著該區域（包含阿拉巴馬州等）一些成長動能與其他正在發生的事情，需求已經出現。因此，這筆 CapEx 的大部分資金會投向那裡；我們也很期待把資金投入該區域，以支援 Kevin 和他的團隊所帶來的成長。

With respect to Curtis Bay, yes, we were down for a couple of weeks, but we're back up doing direct dumping. We did redirect a few trains to a couple of different locations, but we are back in business.

至於 Curtis Bay，是的，我們停了幾週，但現在已恢復並進行直接卸載（direct dumping）。我們確實把少數列車改道到幾個不同地點，但我們已經恢復營運。

Your next question comes from the line of Justin Long with Stephens.

下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Justin Long。

I was wondering if you could talk about the impact you expect from quality in 2022 from both the revenue and operating expense perspective as we try to model that out? And then circling back to some of the labor commentary. Can you help us think through what you're expecting for the sequential change in headcount as we progress through this year?

我想請你談談 2022 年你們預期 Quality 帶來的影響，從營收與營運費用兩個角度，讓我們在建模時能把它納入考量。然後回到一些關於勞動力的評論，你能否協助我們理解，隨著今年進行，你們對員工人數（headcount）逐季變化的預期是什麼？

Yes, Justin, it's Sean. I can take both of those. So the quality impact is pretty straightforward. What you saw in the second half of this year, both in terms of revenue and expense is probably a pretty good run rate going into the next year, into 2022, we'll have kind of a happier impact in Q1 and Q2. And then as we get into the back half, it should be pretty similar. But the things that are going to drive any difference would really have to do with driver availability. The demand is very strong on the Quality side, but that's how I would think about it. So a little over $400 million of revenue in the second half of this year. That's probably a good run rate around $200 million a quarter.

是的，Justin，我是 Sean。我兩個都可以回答。所以，Quality 的影響相當直接。你在今年下半年看到的，不論是營收或費用，大概就是進入明年、進入 2022 年的一個相當不錯的常態化水準（run rate）；在第一季和第二季會有比較正面的影響。然後到了下半年，應該會相當類似。不過，任何差異真正的驅動因素會與司機可用性有關。Quality 這邊的需求非常強，但我會這樣來看。所以今年下半年大約超過 4 億美元的營收。這大概是一個不錯的常態化水準，大約每季 2 億美元左右。

In terms of sequential labor headcount, so you saw an increase of 1% from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. I think that's probably a pretty good estimate of what we might see over the next couple of quarters. The good news is, as Jamie talked about, the head count we report to you includes both T&E employees who are in training as well as those that are marked up and in revenue service. The mix between those that are in training and in service will change a little bit over the course of the first half year, which is great news. But the headcount should go up very modestly on a sequential basis over the first couple of quarters here.

就勞動人力（labor）的人頭數（headcount）季比而言，你看到從第三季到第四季增加了 1%。我認為這大概也是我們在接下來幾季可能看到的相當不錯的估計。好消息是，如 Jamie 所說，我們向你們報告的人頭數包含正在受訓的 T&E 員工，以及已經通過資格（marked up）並投入營收服務的人員。受訓與在役人員之間的組合，在上半年過程中會有一些變化，這是好消息。但在接下來前幾季，人頭數按季應該只會非常溫和地增加。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

So Sean, we have some pretty big headwinds from comp per employee and purchase services in the quarter, I think, including some accelerated cost. How should we think about those 2 pieces this year? And then, Kevin, just circling back on coal for one second, was your point about the met prices at highs suggesting that there's another sequential uptick in coal RPU in 1Q?

Sean，本季我們在每位員工薪酬（comp per employee）與外購服務（purchased services）方面有一些相當大的逆風，我想其中也包含一些加速認列的成本。對於今年這兩個項目，我們應該如何看待？另外，Kevin，再回到煤炭（coal）一下，你提到冶金煤（met）價格在高點，是否意味著第一季煤炭每單位收入（RPU）會再出現一次季比上升？

Scott, so comp per employee, you're right. It was elevated here in the fourth quarter, and that was one of the big factors there obviously was the incentive comp piece. So that should normalize as we get into 2022. I think if you look at it, excluding that for the back half of this year, that's probably a good baseline to build off of. We're going to have some higher labor inflation, which includes health costs as well as payroll tax and railroad unemployment. That will be partially offset by the incentive comp and then there's some favorable mix from the quality addition in the first half of the year. Hopefully, as we get later into the year and the network is cycling better, we also see a reduction in overtime and things like that. So they're probably -- as a result of inflation, there will be a modest increase versus the normalized comp per employee, but not significant.

Scott，關於每位員工薪酬，你說得對，第四季確實偏高，而其中一個主要因素顯然是激勵薪酬（incentive comp）部分。因此進入 2022 年後應該會正常化。我認為如果你看今年下半年、排除那個因素後的水準，那大概是一個可以作為基準的良好起點。我們會面臨較高的勞動通膨，其中包含健康保險成本、薪資稅以及鐵路失業保險（railroad unemployment）。這會部分被激勵薪酬的回落所抵銷，另外在上半年因為 Quality 的新增業務也會帶來一些有利的組合效應。希望到了年中後、隨著網路運行（network）循環改善，我們也能看到加班等項目下降。所以整體而言，因通膨因素，相較於正常化的每位員工薪酬會有溫和上升，但不會很顯著。

And then in terms of purchased services, that's a line that has a lot of different moving pieces. What I can tell you is that you're probably going to see something similar in the first quarter to what you saw in the fourth quarter. But a lot of the costs that we added recently have to do with offsite storage and intermodal facilities, supplemental labor, adding some locomotives things like that. And that ties directly to overall fluidity within not only our network but the broader supply chain. So as that gets better, the purchase services costs should come down commensurate with that.

至於外購服務，這個科目有很多不同的變動因素。我能告訴你的是，第一季你可能會看到與第四季相似的情況。不過，我們最近增加的許多成本與場外倉儲（offsite storage）和聯運（intermodal）設施、補充性人力（supplemental labor）、增加一些機車（locomotives）等有關。而這些都直接連結到不僅是我們網路、也是更廣泛供應鏈的整體流動性（fluidity）。因此，當情況改善時，外購服務成本也應會隨之相應下降。

Yes. And then on the coal RPU, we would expect something probably flattish in first quarter versus fourth quarter. Mix always matters. I would say the mix in terms of our domestic coal side should we see some of the supply issues at the mine improve could help some of that southern coal longer haul pull maybe later here in the quarter that could help, but largely flat is the way we see it today.

是的。至於煤炭 RPU，我們預期第一季相較第四季大致持平（flattish）。組合（mix）一向很重要。我會說，在國內煤炭（domestic coal）方面，如果我們看到礦區的部分供應問題改善，可能會讓一些南部煤炭較長運距（longer haul）的拉動在本季稍晚出現，這可能會有幫助，但就目前來看，我們的看法仍是大致持平。

Okay. Sean, if I can just clarify one thing. It sounds like the purchase services headwind is an offset to this assessorial stuff. So as the accessorial goes lower, the purchase services costs go lower, too. So don't think about the accessorial as 100% margin. Is that...

好的。Sean，我想再釐清一點。聽起來外購服務的逆風其實是用來抵消這些附加費（accessorial）相關的項目。所以當附加費下降時，外購服務成本也會一起下降。因此不要把附加費視為 100% 毛利。是這樣嗎……

Yes, that's correct. I think it's -- that's right. That's right. Now we probably -- accessorial may come down a little bit faster than purchased services just as -- just from a timing perspective, but they will trend together.

是的，沒錯。我想——對，就是這樣。對。現在我們可能——從時間點的角度來看，附加費可能會比外購服務下降得稍微快一點，但它們會一起趨勢變動。

Your next question comes from the line of Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.

下一個問題來自 Susquehanna 的 Bascome Majors。

Jim, you talked a little bit about having a lot of new faces in management over the last few years since you've been in the company, can you talk about potentially updating the investor community with an Investor Day or other type of in? I mean it's approaching for years, you've acquired some nonrail businesses, you've got new faces and we've been through the global pandemic. Just curious when you think it might be time to kind of share your vision of where you think and you take CSX kind of midterm and how we're going to get there.

Jim，你提到過去幾年自從你加入公司以來，管理團隊有很多新面孔。你能否談談是否可能透過投資人日（Investor Day）或其他形式，向投資人社群更新一下？我的意思是，已經接近四年了，你們收購了一些非鐵路業務，管理層也有新面孔，而且我們也經歷了全球疫情。只是好奇你認為何時可能是分享你對 CSX 中期發展方向的願景、以及我們要如何達成的合適時機。

I think we had probably planned on doing another Investor Day, at least a year ago, if not longer. But I don't really -- I personally have not felt that it's really that useful via teams or via Zoom and have every time we've kind of talked about getting out to New York or doing something here or whatever it is, something else comes along and kind of puts the kibosh on our plans. So as soon as Tom Wadewitz gets here and tells me when the pandemic is going to end, then we'll schedule it up and get out and talk to all of you. Would love to show this team off. They're fantastic.

我想我們大概在至少一年前、甚至更早，就計畫再辦一次投資人日。但我不太——就我個人而言，我不覺得透過 Teams 或 Zoom 真的那麼有用。而且每次我們談到要去紐約或在這裡辦點什麼之類的，總會有其他事情出現，然後就把我們的計畫給打住了。所以等 Tom Wadewitz 來了，告訴我疫情什麼時候結束，我們就把行程排起來，出去跟各位聊聊。我很想把這個團隊展示給大家看，他們非常棒。

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Seidl with Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Jason Seidl。

I wanted to talk a little bit about the performance in the quarter on the operational side. I think this was the first time your trip plan compliance for the carload division got above 70%. So I wanted to find out what was going on there? And what else needs to be done to sort of trying to close that gap between carload and intermodal?

我想談一下本季在營運面（operational side）的表現。我認為這是你們車載（carload）事業部的行程計畫遵循率（trip plan compliance）首次高於 70%。我想了解那裡發生了什麼？以及還需要做哪些事情，才能縮小車載與聯運之間的差距？

Thanks, Jason. I'd say, as you all probably quarter-to-quarter, it is a slow climb. We're working really hard on the service product. It really comes down to the availability of people. Our COVID numbers were down into October, November, where we had maybe 30 or 40, maybe up to 60 T&E employees. And then towards the end of the year up to where we are today, well over 300 to 350 folks off.

謝謝，Jason。我會說，正如各位可能看到的，按季來看這是一個緩慢的爬升。我們在服務產品（service product）上非常努力。歸根結底就是人員可用性。我們的 COVID 數字在 10 月、11 月下降到可能只有 30 或 40 人，最多可能到 60 名 T&E 員工。但到了年底、到今天我們所在的狀況，已經有遠超過 300 到 350 人缺勤。

So for us to really get this service product where we're arriving on the hour, as we continue to commit to, it really comes down to people. And we've been saying this for probably over a year now as we struggle to even get that pipeline going. Now we've got a great pipeline. We continue to fill those classrooms and the folks in Atlanta are doing an absolute amazing job under Jim James Schwichtenberg and his team. It's all about producing conductors. And as this quarter continues, we should see that number come up. But again, I think Jim has mentioned a couple of times, it all comes down to what happens in the world with respect to COVID or whatever the next endemic or item might be that affects our crewing of our trains. So that for us is the dial that really turns us up and down when we think about our service product.

所以對我們而言，要真正把這個服務產品做到如我們持續承諾的「整點到達」（arriving on the hour），關鍵就在於人。我們大概已經說了一年多了，因為我們一直在努力把人才管道（pipeline）建立起來。現在我們有很好的管道。我們持續把教室坐滿，而亞特蘭大的同仁在 Jim James Schwichtenberg 及其團隊帶領下做得非常出色。重點就是培養列車長（conductors）。隨著本季推進，我們應該會看到那個數字上升。但同樣地，我想 Jim 已經提過幾次了，一切都取決於世界上關於 COVID 的發展，或下一個可能影響我們列車配員（crewing）的地方性流行病（endemic）或其他事件。所以對我們來說，這就是當我們思考服務產品時，真正讓我們表現上上下下的那個調節旋鈕（dial）。

So I guess we'll just wait for Mr. Wadewitz to confirm the end of COVID. But good job on the numbers and we'll look for the more steady improvement as the year goes on.

那我想我們就等 Wadewitz 先生確認 COVID 結束的時間了。不過數字做得不錯，我們也會期待今年進行中能看到更穩定的改善。

Well, you'll see that number. I mean, we published our velocity as well every week. And that's a good proxy for understanding how fluid the railroad network is, whether you're trying to look at it from a service standpoint, a customer perspective and where are we in terms of trip plan compliance or how much extra cost we're having out there because we're running slow in the region. We run slow is not that the locomotives moving at a slower rate of speed. It means to ship in some place because it gets to a terminal where it's supposed to be recrewed and there's nobody -- we don't have an employee to get on the train because he got sick. And so as that velocity number increases as that draw number goes down, the result is that our customer performance metrics for our trip plan compliance numbers will just improve over time.

嗯，你會看到那個數字的。我的意思是，我們也每週公布我們的速度（velocity）。這是一個很好的替代指標（proxy），用來理解鐵路網路的流動性（fluidity）如何——不論你是從服務角度、客戶角度來看，或是我們在行程計畫遵循率（trip plan compliance）方面處於什麼位置，或是因為我們在區域內跑得慢而在外面承擔了多少額外成本。我們所說的「跑得慢」，不是指機車以較慢的速度行駛；而是指貨物運到某個地方後，到了應該要換班（recrewed）的終端站（terminal），卻沒有人——我們沒有員工可以上車，因為他生病了。因此，當速度數字上升、當那個 draw 數字下降時，結果就是我們面向客戶的績效指標、也就是行程計畫遵循率的數字，會隨時間推移而持續改善。

Well, I always appreciate the fact that you guys published this because trip plan is what those shippers look at anyway. So I much appreciate on my end.

嗯，我一直很感謝你們把這個公布出來，因為行程計畫本來就是那些貨主會看的東西。所以就我這邊而言，非常感激。

Your next question comes from the line of Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Jordan Alliger。

Just some -- wondering if I have some thoughts around revenue per carload sort of from a total company perspective, obviously, coming off 2 strong quarters. We talked a little bit about the first quarter with coal. But as you think about moving through the year, taking into account mix, how do you think about revenue per carload first half, second half? Or wherever you want to talk through it.

我有幾點想請教——想聽聽你們對於每車皮收入（revenue per carload），從整體公司角度的看法。顯然在連續兩個強勁季度之後。我們第一季有稍微談到煤炭。但當你們思考接下來一年、並把產品組合（mix）納入考量時，你們怎麼看每車皮收入在上半年、下半年會如何？或你們想用任何方式來說明都可以。

This is Kevin. I'll take this one. Clearly, yes, we had some strong performance. Some of that obviously was due to the impact of fuel surcharge. We see that probably being a favorable impact into the first quarter and probably less so as you move into the back half of the year and just face tougher comparisons there.

我是 Kevin，我來回答這題。很明顯，是的，我們表現相當強勁。其中一部分顯然來自燃油附加費（fuel surcharge）的影響。我們認為這在第一季可能仍是正面因素，但隨著進入下半年，因為比較基期更具挑戰，這個正面影響可能就沒那麼大。

But there's a couple of probably larger swing items. We've talked about it quite a bit already, but the export coal side will be a large swing item into the second half of the year if prices -- the benchmark prices remain by, there will obviously be a good impact. We talked about how we reprice 50% to 60% of our business every year. And so you'll start to see that impact start to flow through, probably more heavily in the back half of the year. And then on -- those are probably the major moving parts across the business. And obviously, mix always matters. If intermodal is outgrowing your merchandise side of your business, that's always a negative mix. So we would expect merchandise to remain strong, but intermodal has proven over the last few years to be outgrowing merchandise, which is a good thing, but can have a negative impact on the overall RPU.

不過還有幾個可能波動更大的項目。我們已經談了不少，但出口煤炭這一塊，如果價格——也就是基準價格——維持在目前水準，到了下半年會是一個很大的波動項，顯然會帶來不錯的正面影響。我們也提過，我們每年會對 50% 到 60% 的業務重新議價（reprice）。因此你會開始看到這個影響逐步反映出來，而且可能在下半年更明顯。然後——這些大概就是全公司層面主要的變動因素。當然，產品組合永遠很重要。如果聯運（intermodal）的成長速度高於你們的商品運輸（merchandise）業務，那在組合上通常是負面的。所以我們預期商品運輸會維持強勁，但過去幾年聯運已證明其成長速度高於商品運輸，這是好事，但可能會對整體每單位收入（RPU）造成負面影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場（RBC Capital Markets）的 Walter Spracklin。

Just a question here on the environment that we're in right now and how different it is and whether that creates opportunities communities for you to kind of reenvision some of the historical practices you do, particularly around contracts with customers and contracts with employees. So given Jim you mentioned you just can't get -- and Jamie as well, you can't get people wondering if this sets the stage possibly for a bigger push on automation, perhaps it's a little easier to get automation through if the workforce is short people. And secondly, same thing on the customer base, if you've got a customer base that is as it appears to be extremely high demand for transportation services. Does it allow you to perhaps restructure aspects of the contract that you might not have been able to do in the past, open up that door whether it's on duration to your favor longer or shorter. I'm not sure which one you would prefer, but items like that on either of those 2, I'd love to hear any color that you might have.

我想問一下我們目前所處的環境，以及它有多不同，還有這是否為你們創造機會，去重新構想一些你們過去的做法，特別是與客戶的合約以及與員工的合約。鑑於 Jim 你提到你就是招不到人——Jamie 也提到同樣的情況——想請問這是否可能為自動化帶來更大的推動力？也許在勞動力短缺的情況下，更容易推動自動化。第二點，在客戶端也是一樣，如果你們的客戶群如同看起來那樣，對運輸服務的需求極高，是否讓你們有機會去重整合約中的某些面向，而這些在過去可能做不到？例如在合約期間上，是否能朝對你們更有利的方向調整，變長或變短我不確定你們偏好哪一種，但像這類項目。針對這兩點任何一點，我都很想聽聽你們的看法。

Well, on the customers, we have -- for good or bad, and yes, maybe this -- the last 2 years has caused us to rethink everything because things that we never thought were possible to happen, have happened. So we look at -- I think we look at the world differently. Our relationship with our customers is -- this is a big business. It's a big business. Our -- we have relatively long term, not as long as some contracts, but a couple of 3-year duration with the customer who is making huge capital investments in these plants in order to produce and has to have some level of longer-term reliability on what his transportation costs are going to be for him to be able to plan how to run its business.

嗯，先談客戶。我們——不論好壞——而且是的，也許過去兩年讓我們不得不重新思考所有事情，因為一些我們從未想過可能發生的事，真的發生了。所以我們——我想我們看世界的方式不同了。我們與客戶的關係——這是一門大生意，是很大的生意。我們——我們與客戶的合約相對偏長期，雖然不像某些合約那麼長，但也有大約 3 年期；而客戶為了生產，會在這些工廠投入巨額資本支出，因此他必須在某種程度上對其運輸成本有較長期的可預期性與可靠性，才能規劃如何經營他的業務。

So trying to change that is difficult. I think every -- again, our customers are reasonable people. So I think there's dialogues about what works -- there's always -- what works for both. It's a partnership arrangement in terms of how we help our customers be successful in this market. In some circumstances, it may have accelerated our views to a certain degree in terms of -- there's been a modification, there's certainly been a change in the e-commerce arena about who buys themselves transportation in the marketplace. And so we're dealing in certain circumstances more directly with the customers as it were to third parties in -- that we did in the past. And I think that's something that probably will evolve and continue to change.

所以要改變這點很困難。我認為每——再說一次，我們的客戶都是講理的人。所以我想雙方會有對話，討論什麼方式可行——總是——什麼對雙方都有效。這是一種夥伴關係安排，關於我們如何協助客戶在這個市場中取得成功。在某些情況下，這可能在某種程度上加速了我們的看法——合約確實有一些調整；而且在電商領域，關於誰在市場上自行採購運輸服務，確實也出現了變化。因此在某些情況下，我們比過去更直接地與客戶往來，而不是透過第三方。我認為這會持續演變並繼續改變。

In terms of working with how we interact and how we contract with people do want to work for us. I think this is a big challenge and a huge opportunity for us to really upfront address what we think the worker who wants to work for the railroad is what's the profile of that individual, not 6 months from now and not a year from now, but 5 years and 10 years from now.

至於我們如何互動、以及如何與想來我們這裡工作的人簽訂合約，我認為這是一個很大的挑戰，也是一個巨大的機會，讓我們能夠在一開始就正面處理：我們認為想在鐵路工作的人，其個人輪廓（profile）應該是什麼——不是 6 個月後、也不是 1 年後，而是 5 年、10 年後。

And how do we evolve this industry in an extremely -- again, in most circumstances, how would you do this differently? How can you do this better? We can't put kiosks in place to do the work of a conductor or an engineer. But there's certainly technology out there that would allow us to do things more effectively, easier and probably with fewer employees but we also work in an extremely heavily unionized environment that is also very heavily regulated with at times a bent on telling us how we should do things. So we're always in the middle of going through the process. And -- but yes, it's opened our eyes. And I think it's opened everybody's eyes in the transportation business about what we need to do to be more effective and handle these types of issues in the future.

以及我們要如何在一個極其——再說一次，在多數情況下——去推動這個產業演進？你會怎麼做得不一樣？怎麼做得更好？我們不可能放幾台自助機（kiosk）就能取代列車長或機車工程師的工作。但確實有一些技術能讓我們把事情做得更有效率、更容易，而且可能用更少的人力；但我們也處在一個高度工會化的環境，同時也受到高度監管，有時甚至帶有一種傾向要告訴我們應該怎麼做。因此我們總是在這個流程中間推進。然後——但沒錯，這讓我們大開眼界。我想這也讓運輸業的每個人都更清楚，未來要更有效率並處理這類問題，我們需要做些什麼。

Have you found that the automation question has been easier to enter into with unions in the current environment compared to previously?

你們是否發現，在目前的環境下，與工會討論自動化這個議題，比起以前更容易切入？

No.

沒有。

Your next question comes from the line of David Vernon with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 David Vernon。

Two for me. Jamie, could you talk a little bit about where you expect headcount to be as we exit sort of the 2022 timeframe? And then, Jim, I'd love to get your perspective having had some time presumably to review Norfolk ask in the CPKC transaction. Kind of what do you think about that and what you think about the implications of that? What you think the implications of that ask would be for CSX in the long run?

我有兩個問題。Jamie，你能否談談你們預期在 2022 年期末時，人力編制（headcount）大概會落在哪裡？然後 Jim，我也想聽聽你的看法：你應該有一些時間去檢視 Norfolk 在 CPKC 交易中提出的請求。你怎麼看那件事，以及你認為那個請求對 CSX 長期而言可能有哪些影響？

Just touching I think Sean talked a little bit about it. But look, we have 6% to 8% attrition per year. We have to remember that. So not only do we have to hire to cover attrition, we've got to hire to get that number where we need to be in our minds to be able to provide the service that's required and the growth that Kevin and his group are going after. So I'll leave it -- I'll kind of leave it at this. We are actively hiring. We have over 500 conductor trainees right now between Atlanta and what's out in the field, and we're not stopping. We're going to continue to get folks out there qualified as conductors. And we've got a round of qualifying for locomotive engineers here at some point within the next year or 2. So -- but we want to make sure that we can provide that service and grow this company.

我先簡單補充一下，我想 Sean 已經稍微提過。但你看，我們每年有 6% 到 8% 的自然流失（attrition）。這點要記得。所以我們不只要為了補足流失而招募，我們還得招募，讓人數達到我們心目中所需的水準，才能提供所要求的服務，以及支援 Kevin 和他的團隊正在追求的成長。所以我就先說到這裡：我們正在積極招募。我們目前在亞特蘭大以及外勤現場，加起來有超過 500 名列車長受訓學員（conductor trainees），而且我們不會停下來。我們會持續讓更多人取得列車長資格。並且在未來 1 到 2 年內的某個時間點，我們也會有一輪機車工程師（locomotive engineers）的資格認證流程。所以——但我們要確保能提供那樣的服務，並讓公司成長。

As it relates to the other railroads filings in the CP and KCS deal, I'm not surprised at all, but the other railroads. Some of the other railroads have weighed in with the requests to make sure that their franchises and their customers primarily are protected. And each railroad has its own unique requests. And that process is just starting. We're just -- we did get involved in the substantive conversation around what the impacts are of that transaction. You may have seen that we took the position with the STB that we didn't have enough information basically yet to formulate an opinion. So until we have gone on the record, so to speak, with what it is that we're going to ask for and we're still kind of looking at what it is we're going to ask for and what did do other people ask for and what does that mean, that sort of thing. It's really -- I'm not going to comment on any specific filing at any of the railroad that made yet.

至於其他鐵路公司在 CP 與 KCS 交易案中的申報（filings），我一點也不意外——其他鐵路公司當中，有些提出了要求，主要是為了確保他們的特許經營權（franchises）以及他們的客戶能受到保護。每一家鐵路公司都有其獨特的訴求。而那個流程才剛開始。我們——我們確實已開始參與關於該交易影響的實質討論。你可能也看到，我們向 STB 表達的立場是：基本上目前資訊還不夠，讓我們形成意見。所以在我們正式表態之前——也就是說，在我們把我們要提出什麼要求記錄在案之前——而我們仍在評估我們要提出什麼要求、其他人提出了什麼要求、那代表什麼等等。這真的——我不會對任何一家鐵路公司目前所提出的任何具體申報內容做評論。

That's fair. But I guess, if I could just press a little bit. Is the scope of that Norfolk ask surprising to you? Or are you -- was that kind of as expected?

這很公平。但我想，如果我可以再追問一下。諾福克那項要求的範圍讓你感到意外嗎？還是你——那大致上是在預期之內？

No. Like I said, it's not appropriate for me to comment really one way or the other where I thought it was aggressive or not aggressive or it's -- we're trying to figure out what everybody is doing and that takes time. It's a long, long, long process here for us to gather information to look at everything, and then we'll formulate what we think is the right thing for CSX to do. And then at that point in time, we'll be in a better position to comment on what I think about whatever everybody else asked for.

不。就像我說的，我不適合就我認為那是激進或不激進之類的事情發表評論——我們正在試著弄清楚每個人都在做什麼，而那需要時間。對我們而言，這是一個非常、非常、非常漫長的流程，要蒐集資訊、檢視所有事情，然後我們才會形成我們認為 CSX 應該做的正確決策。到了那個時間點，我們會更有條件去評論我對於其他人提出的任何要求的看法。

Your next question comes from the line of Cherilyn Radbourne with TD Securities.

下一個問題來自 TD Securities 的 Cherilyn Radbourne。

We're starting to run a little long, so I'll just ask a quick one here in terms of coal and the producer outages that you experienced during the quarter and the new mine you have coming online. Just wondering if you can help us frame that a little better in terms of the tonnage impact and the timing of when it could come back or come online initially in case of the new mine.

我們時間有點超時了，所以我在煤炭方面快速問一個：關於你們本季遇到的生產商停產，以及你們即將投產的新礦。想請你們協助我們更好地理解其影響——就運量（噸數）的影響，以及若是新礦的話，最初可能上線/投產的時間點。

Yes. I wish I had a crystal ball. There's one particular mine that keeps on telling us that they're going to come back online, and it seems to get pushed out every week. And so I don't have a lot of visibility. I have probably more confidence that as we get into second, third, fourth quarter that we'll see some pick up there. The good news is they have a lot more cash to reinvest in their business. whether it's equipment and other things. So I would think we'll see some benefits of that as well. I mentioned one particular customer dealing with the strike. Those things have continued for quite a while, but eventually, those things get resolved as well.

是的。我希望我有水晶球。有一座特定的礦一直告訴我們他們會恢復上線，但似乎每週都往後延。所以我沒有太多能見度。我比較有信心的是，進入第二、第三、第四季時，我們會看到一些回升。好消息是，他們有更多現金可以再投資到業務上，不論是設備或其他項目。所以我認為我們也會看到一些好處。我提到過有一位特定客戶在處理罷工，那些情況已經持續了一段時間，但最終也會解決。

The other one, the mine that I mentioned that's coming online, it will be a slow ramp-up, and we would expect more volumes in the second half and that's mainly into the export market. So we're positive there. We're -- it's a supportive market, obviously, and we're going to look for opportunities to move more coal as we get more clear availability into the second half.

另外一個，我提到即將上線的那座礦，會是緩慢爬坡的增產，我們預期下半年會有更多運量，主要是流向出口市場。所以我們對此是正面的。這顯然是一個有支撐的市場，我們也會在下半年供給更明朗時，尋找機會運輸更多煤炭。

Your last question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

最後一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 Ravi Shanker。

One big picture question and one follow-up. The big bigger question is on domestic intermodal. Just based on your conversations with your customers, do you have a sense of what it's going to take for shippers to move significant amount of volumes off truck and [third] on rail? Is it as simple as just clearing the congestion? Or are there more complex issues with speed and service and flexibility that kind of take longer to resolve? And just a follow-up. Kevin, you kind of mentioned the cadence of your contract renewals, we are seeing on the truck side that customers are trying to push for shorter contracts or more frequent price resets on the contract side. Are you seeing anything similar?

一個宏觀問題加一個追問。宏觀問題是關於國內聯運。根據你們與客戶的對話，你們是否有感覺，托運人要把大量貨量從卡車轉到（或部分轉到）鐵路上，需要什麼條件？是否只要把壅塞清掉就行？還是還有更複雜的速度、服務與彈性等問題，需要更長時間才能解決？追問是：Kevin，你提到合約續約的節奏；我們在卡車端看到客戶正試著推動更短期的合約或更頻繁的價格重設。你們有看到類似情況嗎？

On the contract side, nothing has really changed. We're obviously working with customers to create more even cadence through the rail network and I work with Jamie all the time, and we go out to customers and explain the challenges that they create and they can create more ratability of their volumes through our system. That's extremely helpful. And so working with them a lot on that side. So that's a big opportunity there. And then what was the first part of the question?

在合約方面，基本上沒有什麼改變。我們當然在與客戶合作，讓貨量在鐵路網路上形成更均衡的節奏；我也一直和 Jamie 合作，我們會去拜訪客戶，說明他們造成的挑戰，以及他們如何能讓貨量在我們系統中更平穩、更可預測。這非常有幫助。所以我們在那一端做了很多合作。那是一個很大的機會。那麼，問題的第一部分是什麼？

Just intermodal and kind of what it takes to get...

就是聯運，以及需要什麼才能讓……

Yes. On the intermodal side, I think having spoken to you recently just one of our many customers, I think consumer behavior is actually going the other way. The expectation is not that they necessarily need something next day. So I would say, the emphasis on speed is actually going the other way to some degree, and we're seeing conversations around maybe I don't need to move it over a truck and get it there in 24 hours, that 48, 72-hour option is valuable. It's obviously cost effective, where a lot of our customers are looking to offset very, very high prices. I would say, on the domestic side, really the challenge has been equipment. It's not a lack of demand. We get calls every day. They want to put more volume on us. But if they can't get the volume out of the terminal, that's a problem. And that's what we've been dealing with. But we think that will resolve itself. It's obviously going to be easier to get truck drivers that you can get home at night that are doing the short haul, and that really plays into our sweet spot.

是的。在聯運方面，我想——最近跟你談過，你只是我們眾多客戶之一——我認為消費者行為其實正往相反方向走。大家的期待不一定是一定要隔天到貨。所以我會說，對速度的強調在某種程度上其實正在下降；我們也聽到一些對話，像是：也許我不需要用卡車在 24 小時內送達，48、72 小時的選項也很有價值。這顯然更具成本效益，因為很多客戶正試著抵消非常、非常高的價格。我會說，在國內端，真正的挑戰一直是設備，而不是需求不足。我們每天都接到電話，他們想把更多貨量交給我們。但如果他們無法把貨從場站（terminal）提出去，那就是問題。這也是我們一直在處理的。但我們認為那會自行改善。顯然，比起長途，能讓司機晚上回家、跑短途的卡車司機更容易找到，而這正好符合我們的甜蜜點。

The long-haul truckers aren't there. And I don't think that the drivers are going to come back to that market, but we do think the shorter haul drivers are going to become more and more available. But it's not just the drivers, it's the chassis, and we know there's a lot of orders out there. And so that will resolve itself. And then the container side, a lot of containers being ordered right now. So we do think as we get into the second half, we'll have a lot of tailwinds that will help us really accelerate growth.

長途卡車司機不在了。而且我不認為司機會回到那個市場，但我們確實認為短途司機會越來越充足。但不只是司機，還有底盤車（chassis）；我們知道外面有很多訂單。所以那也會逐步解決。至於貨櫃端，目前也有大量貨櫃正在下單。因此我們確實認為，進入下半年後，會有很多順風因素，幫助我們真正加速成長。

This concludes today's conference. You may -- thank you for attending. You may disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。您——感謝您的參與。您可以掛線。