CSX Corporation (CSX) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CSX Corporation's Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生，下午好，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2019 年第二季財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。(接線員指示)

For opening remarks and introduction, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Bill Slater, Chief Investor Relations Officer for CSX Corporation.

接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話會議交給 CSX Corporation 投資人關係長 Bill Slater 先生。

Thank you, Shirley, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me on today's call is Jim Foote, President and Chief Executive Officer; Kevin Boone, Interim Chief Financial Officer; and Mark Wallace, Executive Vice President of Sales and Marketing.

謝謝你，Shirley，各位下午好。今天與我一同參與電話會議的有：總裁暨執行長 Jim Foote；代理財務長 Kevin Boone；以及銷售與行銷執行副總裁 Mark Wallace。

On Slide 2 is our forward-looking disclosure, followed by our non-GAAP disclosure on Slide 3.

投影片 2 為我們的前瞻性聲明揭露，接著投影片 3 為我們的非 GAAP 揭露。

With that, it's my pleasure to introduce President and Chief Executive Officer, Jim Foote.

接下來，我很高興介紹總裁暨執行長 Jim Foote。

Good afternoon and thanks a lot, Bill. Before we get started with the presentation, I'd like to first thank all CSX employees whose hard work once again drove the company to new record operating levels this quarter. These records include operating income, free cash flow and operating efficiency in the form of an all-time low operating ratio for our U.S. Class I railroad. Not only did we achieve record financial results, but we continued our industry leadership in safety, with the best performance in terms of lowest personal injury rate and meaningfully reduced train accidents.

各位下午好，謝謝你，Bill。在開始簡報之前，我想先感謝所有 CSX 員工；正是各位的辛勤付出，再次推動公司在本季創下新的營運紀錄。這些紀錄包括營業利益、自由現金流，以及以美國一級鐵路史上最低營運比率所呈現的營運效率。我們不僅達成創紀錄的財務成果，也持續在安全方面領先業界，創下最低人身傷害率的最佳表現，並大幅降低列車事故。

During this quarter, we successfully completed PTC installation and activation across our network. We now operate nearly 13,000 PTC-equipped track miles and are on pace to have the system fully tested and operational with our tenant railroads ahead of the required deadline.

本季期間，我們已在全網成功完成 PTC 的安裝與啟用。目前我們營運近 13,000 英里的 PTC 配備軌道里程，並正按計畫在法定期限之前，與我們的承租鐵路公司完成系統全面測試並投入運作。

Let's move on now to Slide 5 of the presentation and our financial results. Second quarter results were straightforward, with only a few small unique items that Kevin will discuss. Second quarter EPS increased 7% to $1.08 versus last year's figure of $1.01. Our second quarter operating ratio improved by 120 basis points to a record 57.4%.

接著請看簡報投影片 5，我們的財務結果。第二季結果相對單純，僅有少數小型的一次性項目，Kevin 會進一步說明。第二季每股盈餘（EPS）較去年 $1.01 成長 7% 至 $1.08。第二季營運比率改善 120 個基點至創紀錄的 57.4%。

Turning to Slide 6, we are delivering better service to our customers, which is reflected in our merchandise volumes as our improved reliability is leading to customers trusting us with more of their freight. This led to broad-based growth across the merchandise segment as customers are recognizing the value of our best-in-class service offering. This growth was offset by declines in coal, intermodal and other revenue, resulting in a 1% decline in total revenue to $3.1 billion.

再看投影片 6，我們為客戶提供更好的服務，這反映在我們的商品貨運量上；由於可靠性提升，客戶更願意把更多貨量交給我們承運。因此，商品業務部門呈現廣泛成長，客戶正認可我們同級最佳的服務價值。然而，煤炭、聯運及其他收入下滑抵銷了上述成長，使總營收年減 1% 至 31 億美元。

I remain encouraged by the performance of our core merchandise franchise during a softer-than-expected freight environment. We led Class I volume growth again this quarter and grew volumes at all markets with the exception of metals and equipment and fertilizers. Total merchandise revenue increased 2% as volume growth and pricing gains were partially offset by mixed headwinds.

在貨運環境較預期疲弱的情況下，我仍對我們核心商品業務的表現感到鼓舞。本季我們再次領先一級鐵路的運量成長，除金屬與設備以及肥料之外，其餘各市場運量皆成長。商品總收入成長 2%，運量成長與定價提升部分被不利的組合因素所抵銷。

Intermodal revenue declined 11% on 10% lower volumes, primarily due to the impact of line rationalizations implemented last fall and early this year. We'll begin to lap those rationalizations at the end of the third quarter.

聯運收入因運量下滑 10% 而下降 11%，主要是受到去年秋季及今年初實施的路線精簡措施影響。我們將在第三季末開始消化（比較基期）這些精簡措施的影響。

Coal revenue declined 2% on 2% higher volumes as growth in domestic industrial markets was more than offset by export and utility declines.

煤炭收入在運量增加 2% 的情況下仍下降 2%，因國內工業市場的成長被出口與公用事業需求下滑所抵銷。

Finally, lower other revenues was primarily due to decreases in demurrage markets at intermodal facilities.

最後，其他收入下降主要是因聯運場站的滯期費（demurrage）相關收入減少。

Let's move to Slide 7. Employee safety remains my top priority. We were again the best in the industry for FRA personal injury rates and set a new company record for the lowest number of FRA reportable train accidents this quarter. We're also finding new ways to utilize technology to further enhance safety. As one example, the use of automated track inspection cars helped reduce track-caused mainline accidents by 85% year-to-date.

接著看投影片 7。員工安全仍是我的首要任務。我們再次在 FRA 人身傷害率方面名列業界最佳，並在本季創下公司紀錄：FRA 可申報列車事故數量最低。我們也在尋找運用科技進一步提升安全的新方法。例如，使用自動化軌道檢測車，年初至今使軌道因素造成的主線事故減少 85%。

While I'm pleased with this progress, there's always opportunity to operate more safely, and we will work diligently to make our railroad as safe as it can be.

雖然我對這些進展感到滿意，但在更安全營運方面永遠有改善空間；我們將持續努力，讓我們的鐵路系統盡可能安全。

Let's turn to Slide 8 and take a quick look at our operating performance. On the service side, velocity and dwell improved by 14% and 6%, respectively. We also set another U.S. Class I record this quarter by operating below 1 gallon of fuel per 1,000 gross ton miles as we continue to find new and incremental ways to improve efficiency and drive unproductive cost out of the system. Most importantly, our improved operations are transferring to better outcomes for customers. We dramatically improved our trip plan compliance over the last year and are seeing strong momentum exiting the quarter. We continue to hit new records and have done so whilst tightening the schedule in the form of shorter trip plans.

接著看投影片 8，快速檢視我們的營運表現。在服務面，運行速度（velocity）與停留時間（dwell）分別改善 14% 與 6%。本季我們也再度創下美國一級鐵路紀錄：每 1,000 總噸英里耗油量低於 1 加侖；我們持續尋找新的、漸進式的方法提升效率，並將非生產性成本自系統中移除。最重要的是，我們改善的營運正轉化為客戶更好的成果。過去一年我們大幅提升行程計畫達成率（trip plan compliance），並在季末展現強勁動能。我們持續刷新紀錄，同時也透過縮短行程計畫來收緊時刻表。

We plan to roll out our trip plan compliance data to our customers later this year and look forward to the opportunities the increased transparency will provide us to engage more deeply with them.

我們計畫在今年稍晚向客戶推出行程計畫達成率數據，並期待更高透明度所帶來的機會，使我們能與客戶進行更深入的互動。

With that, I'll hand it over to Kevin, who will take you through the financials.

接下來我把時間交給 Kevin，由他帶各位檢視財務細節。

Thank you, Jim, and good afternoon, everyone. Turning to Slide 10, I'll walk you through the highlights of the summary income statement. As Jim mentioned, total revenue was down 1% in the second quarter as the impact of lower volume, particularly in intermodal, more than offset pricing gains across most of our markets.

謝謝你，Jim，各位下午好。請看投影片 10，我將帶各位了解綜合損益表的重點。如 Jim 所提，第二季總營收年減 1%，因運量下降（尤其是聯運）所造成的影響，超過了我們在多數市場的定價提升。

Moving to expenses. Total operating expenses were 3% lower in the second quarter, reflecting continued strong efficiency gains. Lower -- labor and fringe expense was 3% lower, driven by a 5% reduction in head count combined with favorable incentive compensation expense. These savings were partially offset by inflation and other items.

接著看費用。第二季總營運費用年減 3%，反映效率持續顯著提升。人事與附加福利費用年減 3%，主要由員工人數減少 5% 以及獎酬激勵費用有利所帶動。上述節省部分被通膨與其他項目所抵銷。

The operating team continues to drive efficiencies in a number of areas, highlighted by fewer crew starts, down 5%; and lower T&E to overtime. Recrews are also down 77%, a significant improvement year-over-year.

營運團隊持續在多個領域推動效率提升，重點包括：乘務開工次數（crew starts）減少 5%；以及 T&E（運輸與引擎）加班費降低。重新派員（recrews）也下降 77%，較去年同期顯著改善。

Active locomotive count declined more than 300 locomotives, down 11% year-over-year. Smaller fleet combined with fewer cars online and freight car repair efficiencies helped drive a 6% year-over-year reduction in our mechanical workforce.

在用機車數量減少超過 300 輛，年減 11%。較小的車隊規模，加上在線車輛減少與貨車維修效率提升，帶動我們機械部門人力年減 6%。

MS&O expense improved 3% versus the prior year. Lower active locomotive count drove savings in materials and contracted services. Train accident costs were also favorable in the quarter as the FRA train accident rate fell over 50%.

MS&O 費用較去年改善 3%。在用機車數量下降帶來材料與外包服務成本節省。本季列車事故成本也較有利，因 FRA 列車事故率下降超過 50%。

Intermodal cost also saw a year-over-year improvement with lower volumes combined with operating efficiencies driving expense reductions. Partially offsetting these items was an unfavorable impact from casualty reserve adjustments unrelated to the improving trends in safety. Real estate and line sale gains were flat in the second quarter versus the prior year. We continue to see a strong pipeline of opportunities.

聯運成本亦較去年同期改善；運量下降加上營運效率提升，帶動費用降低。部分抵銷上述有利因素的是：與安全改善趨勢無關的傷亡準備金調整帶來不利影響。第二季不動產與路線出售收益與去年同期持平。我們仍看到強勁的機會管線。

Looking at the other expense items, appreciation increased 2% due to the impact of a larger net asset base. Record fuel efficiency and a 6% decrease in diesel prices helped drive a 13% decline in fuel expense. Our enhanced focus on distributed power utilization and energy management technology drove record second quarter fuel efficiency. Equipment rent expense decreased 8%, driven by improved cycle times and lower volume-related cost in intermodal.

再看其他費用項目，折舊費用因淨資產基礎擴大而增加 2%。創紀錄的燃油效率以及柴油價格下降 6%，帶動燃油費用下降 13%。我們更聚焦於分散式動力（distributed power）運用與能源管理技術，推動第二季燃油效率創下紀錄。設備租金費用下降 8%，主要受益於週轉時間改善以及聯運相關的量變成本降低。

Equity earnings decreased $9 million in the quarter, primarily due to lower net earnings at our affiliates, including cycling an affiliate's property sale in the prior year.

權益法投資收益在本季減少900萬美元，主要由於我們關聯企業的淨利下降所致，其中包括去年關聯企業出售不動產所帶來的一次性收益在本期不再出現。

Looking below the line. Interest expense decreased primarily due to higher debt balances. Income tax expense increased $9 million, primarily due to the benefit in 2018 related to state legislative changes. For the remainder of the year, we would expect an effective tax rate of approximately 24.5% absent unique items.

再看損益表線下項目。利息費用下降主要是因為債務餘額較高。所得稅費用增加900萬美元，主要因2018年與州立法變更相關的稅務利益所致。在不考慮特殊項目的情況下，我們預期今年剩餘期間的有效稅率約為24.5%。

Closing out the P&L. As Jim highlighted in his opening remarks, CSX delivered operating income of $1.3 billion, record operating ratio of 57.4% and earnings per share of $1.08, representing improvements of 2%, 120 basis points and 7%, respectively. We continue to see significant opportunities to drive efficiencies across every aspect of our business.

最後總結損益表。如Jim在開場致詞中所強調，CSX實現營業利益13億美元、創紀錄的營業比率57.4%，以及每股盈餘1.08美元，分別改善2%、120個基點與7%。我們仍持續看到在業務各個面向推動效率提升的重大機會。

Just a few of those key initiatives into the back half of the year include ongoing train consolidations through continued expansion of distributed power and additional longer crew runs. This reduces the active locomotive fleet and associated maintenance and repair cost as well as crew labor and related travel and balancing expenses. Yard reductions enabled by train consolidations and longer runs will reduce labor and overhead cost.

今年下半年幾項關鍵措施包括：透過持續擴大分散式動力（distributed power）以及增加更長的乘務員運行區段，持續進行列車整併。這將降低在役機車車隊規模及其相關維修與修理成本，同時也降低乘務人力與相關差旅及調度平衡費用。由列車整併與更長運行所帶來的調車場縮減，將降低人力與管理費用。

Overtime also remains a significant opportunity, with a particular focus on its mechanical and engineering. There are multiple emphasis across our business functions where overtime as a percentage of straight time is well over 20% and, in some cases, exceeding 40%. While we hit a record this quarter, fuel efficiency remains a big opportunity for us. I expect the operating teams to continue to deliver savings.

加班仍是重要的改善機會，特別聚焦在機務與工務（engineering）領域。在我們多個業務職能中，加班占正常工時的比例遠超過20%，部分甚至超過40%。雖然本季我們創下紀錄，但燃油效率對我們而言仍是重大機會。我預期營運團隊將持續交付節省成果。

Train speed and dwell continue to be opportunities as well. The related cost benefits remain significant. Finally, we are finding new opportunities to become more efficient in our G&A costs. Recent initiatives should benefit us in the second half.

列車速度與停留時間（dwell）同樣仍有改善空間。相關的成本效益依然相當可觀。最後，我們也在一般與管理（G&A）成本方面找到新的效率提升機會。近期措施應可在下半年帶來效益。

Turning to Slide 11. Year-to-date capital investment is down $54 million or 7% year-over-year. At the same time, we have added 12% more rail and 25% more ties, while doing it smarter. Overall, our improved asset utilization from locomotives to rolling stock has enabled us to sustain lower levels of capital investment without compromising safety or reliability. The level of PTC spending has also come down significantly in the last 2 years.

接著看第11頁投影片。年初至今資本投資較去年同期減少5,400萬美元或7%。同時，我們鋪設的鋼軌增加12%、枕木增加25%，且做得更聰明。整體而言，從機車到車輛（rolling stock）的資產使用效率提升，使我們能在不犧牲安全或可靠性的前提下，維持較低的資本投資水準。過去兩年PTC支出水準也大幅下降。

Growth in CSX's core operating cash flow, including improvements in working capital, drove a 22% increase in adjusted free cash flow to $1.6 billion through the second quarter. Year-to-date, we have returned approximately $2 billion to shareholders, including $1.6 billion in buybacks and $400 million in dividends.

CSX核心營運現金流的成長（包含營運資金改善）推動調整後自由現金流在截至第二季增加22%，達16億美元。年初至今，我們已向股東回饋約20億美元，其中包含16億美元庫藏股回購與4億美元股利。

Dividend payments in the quarter reflect the 9% increase of $ 0.22 to $ 0.24 per share we announced in February of this year. Our ability to convert earnings into cash remains a key differentiator for CSX, and a significant driver of shareholder value.

本季股利支付反映我們於今年2月宣布的每股股利由0.22美元提高9%至0.24美元。我們將獲利轉化為現金的能力仍是CSX的關鍵差異化優勢，也是推動股東價值的重要動能。

With that, let met turn it back to Jim for his closing remarks.

接下來，我把時間交回Jim做結語。

Thanks, Kevin. Turning to Slide 13, I want to wrap things up by discussing our guidance for the year. We started this year expecting revenue to be up approximately 1% to 2%. Both global and U.S. economic conditions have been unusual this year, to say the least, and have impacted our volumes. You see it every week in our reported carloads. The present economic backdrop is one of the most puzzling I have experienced in my career.

謝謝你，Kevin。請看第13頁投影片，我想以討論我們今年的指引來做總結。我們在年初預期營收約成長1%到2%。今年全球與美國的經濟情勢可說相當不尋常，並影響了我們的運量。你每週都能從我們公布的車皮裝載量（carloads）看出來。目前的經濟背景是我職涯中遇過最令人困惑的之一。

With natural gas prices expected to continue to impact both domestic and export coal, intermodal is showing little seasonal recovery, and many of our industrial customers' volumes continuing to show weakness with no concrete signs of these trends changing; and adding in the impact on crude-by-rail shipment of last month's Philadelphia refinery explosion, we are now expecting revenues to be down 1% to 2% for the full year.

由於天然氣價格預期將持續影響國內與出口煤炭，多式聯運（intermodal）幾乎沒有季節性回升，而我們許多工業客戶的運量仍持續疲弱且未見明確改善跡象；再加上上月費城煉油廠爆炸事件對原油鐵路運輸（crude-by-rail）出貨的影響，我們目前預期全年營收將下滑1%到2%。

We are not necessarily being pessimistic about the second half of the year. But in as much as we need to adjust guidance, we're just setting out the obvious. This outlook is based on the current business levels and there is upside to this forecast if conditions improve in the second half. We are seeing a range of conflicting data points and economic indicators and regularly speak with customers who, despite the recent downtime -- slowdown, remain cautiously optimistic about the second half. Mark is here and can add some color to this in the Q&A session.

我們不一定是對下半年感到悲觀。但既然需要調整指引，我們只是陳述顯而易見的情況。此展望係基於目前的業務水準；若下半年情況改善，該預測仍有上行空間。我們看到一系列相互矛盾的數據點與經濟指標，也經常與客戶交流；儘管近期停工—放緩，他們對下半年仍保持審慎樂觀。Mark也在現場，並可在問答環節補充一些說明。

We feel it is most prudent to actively manage expenses today -- to today's volumes, rather than take a wait-and-see approach. We still expect a sub-60 operating ratio for the year. Our planned cost reduction initiatives will not impact safety, service, and will ensure the business is positioned to handle any additional volumes when things pick up.

我們認為最審慎的作法，是現在就主動將費用管理到與當前運量相匹配，而不是採取觀望態度。我們仍預期全年營業比率可低於60。我們規劃的成本削減措施不會影響安全與服務，並將確保當景氣回升、運量增加時，業務已具備承接能力。

Lastly, we are maintaining our $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion CapEx outlook for the year. Even though the year is off to a slower start than we had hoped, we still see significant opportunities ahead. We have a service product that is resonating with customers and a long list of opportunities to reduce expenses, decrease asset intensity, and improve efficiency by eliminating the unnecessary touches that it cost and slow us down.

最後，我們維持今年資本支出（CapEx）16億至17億美元的展望。儘管今年開局比我們原先希望的更慢，我們仍看到前方有顯著機會。我們的服務產品正獲得客戶共鳴，同時也有一長串機會可用來降低費用、降低資產密集度，並透過消除那些既增加成本又拖慢速度的不必要接觸點來提升效率。

We are very proud of the progress to date, and there is still much more left to do. With that, thank you, and I'll turn it back to Bill.

我們對目前為止的進展感到非常自豪，但仍有許多工作要做。那麼，謝謝各位，我把時間交回Bill。

Thank you, Jim. (Operator Instructions) Shirley, we'll now take questions.

謝謝你，Jim。(接線員指示) Shirley，我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

(接線員指示) 我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）的Ken Hoexter。

Jim, maybe just talk a little bit about the performance rights. So a phenomenal operating ratio, yet when you show your data, the on-time arrivals continue to fall. Maybe just to understand how that's possible, given -- are you tightening the time frames to different levels? Or is that different than the improvements you're making on the performance?

Jim，也許請談一下績效指標。營業比率非常亮眼，但你們的數據顯示準點到達率仍在下滑。想了解在這種情況下怎麼會發生這種結果——你們是否把不同層級的時間框架收緊了？或者這與你們在績效改善上所做的提升是不同的衡量方式？

Great. Well there's the difference between on-time originations and on-time arrivals versus trip plan compliance, which is measuring the blocks as it moves through the network. Our on-time departures, since we report to the STB, we're close to 100%, we're high 90s now. And arrivals is kind of in the high 80s -- mid- to high 80s just most recently here now.

好的。準點始發與準點到達，和行程計畫符合率（trip plan compliance）是不同概念；後者衡量的是列車在網路中移動時各區段（blocks）的達成情況。我們的準點出發，因為要向STB申報，目前接近100%，現在是90%後段。而到達大概在80%後段——最近大多落在80%中後段。

The trip plan compliance, on the other hand, which is not measuring that train performance, it's measuring out the cargoes through the network from the time we pick it up to the customer and when we tell the customer we'll hand it to his customer in 114 hours. How often do we make that 114-hour trip plan? And every time -- and when we started measuring this, we were maybe in the 30 -- high 30% of the time we were making that trip plan, and now were in the high 7 -- we're close to 90% in intermodal and high 70s for the carload business. And yes, to your -- to answer your question, every time we start getting where we're producing really good results, Jamie and the operating team get in there and tighten up the schedule and make it more difficult for everyone, because ultimately, that results in a much better product for the customer.

另一方面，行程計畫符合率並不是在衡量列車表現，而是在衡量貨物從我們提貨、穿越網路到交付客戶的整體流程；例如我們告訴客戶會在114小時後把貨交給他的客戶。我們有多常能達成這個114小時的行程計畫？而每一次——當我們開始衡量時，我們大概只有30%多——接近40%的時間能達成該行程計畫；現在多式聯運已接近90%，而車皮業務（carload）則在70%後段。是的，回到你的問題：每當我們開始取得非常好的成果時，Jamie和營運團隊就會進一步收緊時刻表，讓每個人都更難達成，因為最終這會為客戶帶來更好的產品。

Ken, to give you a little perspective. Last year, in second quarter of '18, we, on average, left -- we had early departures of about 16 -- 76 minutes early, whereas you look at this year, we're departing only 20 minutes early. So we gave ourselves a lot of cushion last year, which, obviously, would translate in a lot more cost. So we're tightening the windows, and you can see it in that differential, which helps us manage our outputs a lot better.

Ken，給你一點背景。去年，也就是18年第二季，我們平均提早出發——大約提早16到76分鐘；而你看今年，我們只提早20分鐘出發。所以去年我們給自己留了很大的緩衝，這顯然會轉化為更多成本。因此我們正在收緊時間窗口，你可以從那個差異看出來，這有助於我們更好地管理產出。

Helpful review. And for my second one, or a follow-up, I guess, is maybe just moving over to Mark. And Jim, since you opened that up, maybe Mark, you can talk about, given the shift of the outlook, are you seeing an accelerating decline in kind of the some of the economic indicators you're looking at? It just looks like, carloads, you're right, have -- if we take out the intermodal, which stays around that down double-digit given your lane closures, it seems to -- are you seeing an underlying deceleration in some of the outlook? I don't know if you want to go by commodity or just overall.

很有幫助的回顧。那我的第二個問題，或算是追問，我想可能轉給Mark。Jim，既然你把這個話題打開了，Mark，鑑於展望的轉變，你是否看到你所關注的一些經濟指標出現加速下滑？看起來車皮裝載量（carloads），你說得對，已經——如果我們把聯運（intermodal）剔除，考量到你們關閉部分路線後它仍維持在兩位數下滑附近——似乎……你是否看到展望中某些面向存在潛在的進一步放緩？我不確定你想按商品別來談，還是整體來談。

Thanks, Ken, for that good opportunity here. I think, exclusive of the PES refinery explosion that Jim just talked about in Philadelphia that just happened a couple of weeks ago, our change in our revenue guidance is largely evenly attributable between our 3 segments: so coal, merchandise and intermodal. On the coal, export coal has been below our expectations, mostly driven by thermal and lower API2 benchmarks, which we think will likely continue into the second half.

謝謝你，Ken，給了我們這個很好的機會。我認為，撇除Jim剛提到、幾週前在費城發生的PES煉油廠爆炸事件，我們對營收指引的調整，基本上是平均歸因於我們的三個業務板塊：煤炭、一般貨運（merchandise）與聯運。在煤炭方面，出口煤低於我們的預期，主要是受到動力煤以及較低的API2基準價格所驅動，我們認為這種情況很可能會延續到下半年。

On the domestic utility side, our volumes are down relative to our expectations driven by continued lower natural gas prices. Going into the year, we were -- we thought Henry Hub was going to be somewhere around in our guidance, was for Henry Hub to be somewhere around $2.85. Now we're hovering between $2.40 and $2.50, which is now reflected in our guidance.

在國內公用事業端，我們的運量也低於預期，原因是天然氣價格持續偏低。年初時，我們——我們原先的假設是Henry Hub在我們指引中大約會落在每MMBtu 2.85美元左右。現在我們徘徊在2.40到2.50美元之間，這也已反映在我們的指引中。

On the merchandise, clearly, as Jim mentioned, clearly, there are signs of slowing economic conditions in both IDP and GDP for Q3 and Q4, pointing to a less robust economy in the second half. We've obviously seen evidence of this in our own business and now see a softer industrial environment, with signs in our automotive, chemicals and metals segment. But we're calling it as we see it and the run rates we're seeing are based on the trends that we saw in June and coming into Q3.

在一般貨運方面，正如Jim提到的，很明顯，第三季與第四季的IDP與GDP都出現經濟放緩的跡象，指向下半年經濟動能較不強勁。我們當然也在自身業務中看到這些證據，現在也看到較疲弱的工業環境，在汽車、化學品與金屬等板塊都有跡象。但我們是依所見如實反映；我們目前看到的運行水準（run rates）是基於6月的趨勢以及進入第三季時的情況。

On the intermodal side, listen, we clearly hoped for more of a recovery, particularly in the fourth quarter of the year. But we're not immune from some of the pressures that the entire U.S. intermodal industry is facing right now, with the weak trucking market coming off an exceptionally strong 2018. There's a lot of excess capacity in this market and as a result of what we saw in 2018, a lot of trucks came into the market. That needs to be worked out. But listen, we're staying disciplined on serving our customers and providing everyone with, as Jim mentioned, great service.

在聯運方面，坦白說，我們原本明顯希望能有更多復甦，特別是在第四季。但我們也無法免於目前整個美國聯運產業所面臨的一些壓力：在2018年異常強勁之後，卡車運輸市場轉弱。這個市場有大量的過剩運能，而因為2018年的情況，很多卡車運能進入了市場。這需要時間消化調整。但我們會保持紀律，專注服務客戶，並如Jim所說，提供大家優質的服務。

Now what would help? Obviously, what would help in the back half would be a resolution or clarity on trade and tariffs would obviously help, but that is obviously beyond our control. But what is within our control is providing a high-quality service product to our customers, uncovering new opportunities to use that service product for both new and existing customers, and to make sure that we are extracting a fair value for the service that we provide.

那什麼會有幫助？很明顯，下半年若能在貿易與關稅上出現解決方案或更明確的方向，當然會有幫助，但那顯然不在我們可控範圍內。我們能控制的是：為客戶提供高品質的服務產品，發掘運用該服務產品的新增機會（不論是新客戶或既有客戶），並確保我們為所提供的服務取得合理的價值回收。

So hopefully, that covers the -- a little bit of the explanation on what we're seeing.

所以希望這能——多少說明一下我們所看到的情況。

And next question comes from Allison Landry with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）的Allison Landry。

So Jim, earlier, you outlined a number of concerns in the freight environment and what you're hearing from customers, but it sounds like maybe the risk is to the downside instead of an upside recovery. But I guess my question is how much of a volume or a revenue decline can the business model withstand? And you still grow EBIT on a year-over-year basis in 2019?

Jim，你先前提到貨運環境中的多項疑慮，以及你從客戶那裡聽到的情況，但聽起來風險可能偏向下行，而不是上行復甦。但我想問的是，這個商業模式能承受多大幅度的運量或營收下滑？而你們在2019年仍能在年對年基礎上成長EBIT嗎？

I don't know that we've ever modeled how much we can actually take out. I think we're doing -- this is not something we woke up yesterday and said, well, guess what, things are going a little bit softer than we had expected. We've been watching this throughout the first half hoping, as everyone did, that things would turn around and business levels would start to tick up instead of this just kind of slow, lazy, malaise-type drift down across, which as Mark said, kind of then accelerated as we got into June. And -- but we've been planning for this and watching it and taking steps for months now to, first of all, obviously, focus on that G&A because one of the things that we don't want to do in these situations is reduce cost in the transportation side of the business that could impact service. Then you impact service, and then your business can get softer. And then you get softer, so you cut more and then you impact service and you start this downward trend.

我不確定我們是否曾經建模過我們實際上能削減多少。我想我們正在做——這不是我們昨天醒來才說，嗯，情況比我們預期的稍微疲弱。我們在上半年一直在觀察，並且像大家一樣希望情況會好轉、業務量會開始回升，而不是像現在這樣在各方面呈現一種緩慢、鬆散、帶點低迷的下滑；正如Mark所說，進入6月後這種情況某種程度上加速了。但我們一直在為此做規劃、持續觀察，並且這幾個月來採取措施；首先，當然是聚焦在G&A（一般及行政費用），因為在這種情況下，我們不希望在運輸端削減成本而影響服務。一旦影響服務，業務就可能更疲弱。然後更疲弱，你就再砍更多，接著又影響服務，於是開始這種向下的循環。

It would be much easier for us to respond if suddenly business just dropped 10% in a day because then we would know exactly how to rightsize the business for it, and we'd know exactly where we could and could not take out the expenses to be able to -- in order to handle the volumes. So we are doing the best we can and have done -- I think the team did an amazing job in the second quarter of getting a lot of things done, getting a lot of things rightsized based upon what we were anticipating and what we were seeing, and not really going into any kind of cost reductions on the transportation side of the businesses where the majority of our expenses are.

如果業務突然在一天之內下滑10%，我們反而更容易應對，因為那樣我們會非常清楚該如何把業務規模調整到合適水準，也會非常清楚哪些費用可以、哪些不可以削減，以便——為了能夠承接那些運量。所以我們正在盡最大努力；而且——我認為團隊在第二季做得非常出色，完成了很多事情，根據我們的預期與所見把很多面向調整到合適規模，並且沒有真正去削減運輸端的成本——而那裡是我們大部分費用所在。

If we see or if we saw, and hopefully we don't, but if we saw a significant with the decline in our business levels, we would respond quickly and aggressively and do everything we could to try and maintain our cost structure and our advantage. At some point in time, I mean there's just no way that we can take out the order of magnitude of the amount of costs that are necessary if there were a significant decline in revenues, but we'll continue to do our best and monitor it.

如果我們看到——或如果我們看到（希望不會），但如果我們看到業務水準出現顯著下滑，我們會快速且強力地回應，盡一切所能維持我們的成本結構與競爭優勢。但在某個時間點上，我是說，如果營收大幅下滑，我們不可能把所需的成本以同等量級削減掉；不過我們會持續盡力並加以監控。

So far, so good. I mean, things are not -- this is not doom and gloom. This is not end of days kind of thing. This has been a very slow drip from the beginning of the year. And as aggravating as it is, under the current rules of engagement with the investment community, once we put guidance out, when things start to look like we're not going to be able to achieve that guidance, we're obligated to give a new guidance. And so we've thought hard about it and said, based upon where we are today, if this is kind of the new run rate from today, then we'll probably be down 1% or 2%, especially when we just blew up an oil refinery, that was a big customer of ours. And which is by itself, on an annualized basis, 1% of our volumes.

到目前為止，還算可以。我的意思是，情況並不是——這不是世界末日、也不是末日降臨那種狀況。這從年初開始就是非常緩慢的滴水式下滑。雖然令人惱火，但在目前與投資社群互動的規則下，一旦我們發布了指引，當情況開始看起來我們可能無法達成該指引時，我們就有義務提供新的指引。因此我們仔細思考後表示，基於我們今天所處的位置，如果從今天起這就是新的運行水準，那我們可能會下滑1%到2%，尤其是我們剛發生了一座煉油廠爆炸事件，那是我們的一個大客戶。而單就那一項而言，按年化計算約占我們運量的1%。

So factored into the number that we've taken down is a onetime -- a 1% hit in volumes, half of which we'll recognize this year, associated with the refinery explosion. So -- but to get back to your question, we can do a lot if we know directly what it is we're trying to achieve. In this environment, it's just a lot more challenging.

因此，我們下調的數字中已納入一次性因素——運量受到1%的衝擊，其中一半會在今年認列，與煉油廠爆炸事件相關。所以——回到你的問題，如果我們能直接知道要達成的是什麼，我們可以做很多事。在這樣的環境下，確實就更具挑戰性。

Okay. That's really helpful. And maybe just piggybacking on that a little bit. So yes, obviously the volume declines accelerated, and maybe in Q2, you tried to do a little bit of rightsizing. So should that, along with the comments that you guys made about having plenty of opportunity going forward for efficiency gains, is that -- should we read that as a signal that the year-over-year improvement in the OR could accelerate from the 130 bps in Q2? Not that, that wasn't a good number, just trying to understand the trajectory going forward and how you're thinking about that.

好的。這真的很有幫助。也許再順著這點追問一下。所以是的，很明顯運量下滑加速了，而且也許在第二季你們嘗試做了一些規模調整（rightsizing）。那麼，結合你們提到未來仍有很多效率提升機會的評論——我們是否應該把這解讀為：營業比率（OR）的年對年改善，可能會從第二季的130個基點進一步加速？不是說那不是個好數字，只是想了解未來的走勢，以及你們對此的思考方式。

Allison, you're killing me. I mean, we're doing a fantastic job, and then you want more. Come on. I think we'll just stick within this environment going back to the original. We've got to -- this revenue top line view reflects a pretty significant reduction in revenue. And what we're saying right now is we're going to achieve our goal of hitting an operating ratio of below 60%. And despite what everybody else does out there, maintaining our leadership position as the most efficient railroad in North America.

Allison，你這是要逼死我。我的意思是，我們已經做得非常出色了，然後你還想要更多。拜託。我想我們就回到最初的說法，在這個環境下先維持既定方向。我們必須——這個營收（收入）上緣的觀點反映了相當顯著的營收下滑。而我們現在要說的是：我們會達成把營業比率降到60%以下的目標。並且不管外面其他人怎麼做，都要維持我們作為北美最有效率鐵路公司的領導地位。

Your next question comes from Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的Brian Ossenbeck。

Mark, one for you on export coal. When do you think that is a -- you mentioned API2, I wanted ask about met coal. When do you think that, that window will start to maybe get a little bit tighter as seaborne prices have come in a bit? And are there any other changes that we've seen this cycle with maybe some longer-term contracts or reservation systems at the ports that -- or even restructuring of the coal producers in Appalachia? Anything that you think can actually help extend this cycle for a little bit longer?

Mark，有一題關於出口煤。你提到API2，我想問的是冶金煤（met coal）。你認為隨著海運價格回落一些，那個窗口期什麼時候會開始變得更緊？另外，這一輪週期中我們是否看到其他變化，例如港口端一些較長期合約或預約（reservation）制度——或甚至阿帕拉契亞煤炭生產商的重整？有沒有任何你認為能讓這個週期再延長一段時間的因素？

Yes. Brian, thanks. I think on export coal, let me just start at a high level. I think we're still expecting export coal roughly around 40 million tons for the year. Thermal coal, as I talked about, obviously, some tough headwinds there given the API2 numbers, but we're -- there's some tough things going on in Europe, as Jim talked about, with some low natural gas prices, the mild weather and low natural gas prices in Europe, so that's causing a little bit of a headwind. On the met side, again, the benchmarks remain strong. They're about $190. We replaced -- we price those contracts quarterly.

是的。Brian，謝謝。談出口煤，我先從較高層次說起。我們仍預期今年出口煤大約在4,000萬噸左右。動力煤方面，如我先前提到的，考量API2的數字，顯然面臨一些強勁逆風；但——如Jim所說，歐洲那邊也有一些棘手情況：歐洲天然氣價格偏低、天氣溫和且天然氣價格低，這些都造成一些逆風。冶金煤方面，基準價格仍然強勁。大約是190美元。我們——這些合約是按季定價。

We're working with -- we're working now with all our export coal producers to look into next year. I'm not going to give you any guidance, but we're having some success there and trying to lock up some volumes. Not anything hugely significant, but especially on the thermal side, which is encouraging. But we work with these guys every day, our customers, and everyone's incentivized to move a lot of coal heading into next year. And hopefully, as we get closer to the end of next year, we'll give you maybe a little bit more clarity on what our expectations are for 2020.

我們正在與所有出口煤生產商合作，著眼於明年。我不會提供任何指引，但我們在那方面有一些進展，並嘗試鎖定一些運量。沒有什麼特別重大的量，但尤其是在動力煤方面，這是令人鼓舞的。不過我們每天都和這些客戶合作，大家都有動機在明年把更多煤運出去。希望等接近明年年底時，我們能就2020年的預期提供更清楚一些的說明。

All right. Mark, appreciate that. Maybe for you, a follow-up on the PES refinery. Jim gave us the rough magnitude of that. But I was curious, we've seen some other headlines with U. S. Steel, bringing down -- I guess, keeping down some blast furnaces. In the past, you mentioned that tariffs have actually helped domestic -- fuel production domestic met coal consumption. So I was wondering if that was or any other distinct events are reflected in the updated guidance.

好的。Mark，感謝。也許再追問一下PES煉油廠的事。Jim已經給了我們大致的影響幅度。但我好奇的是，我們也看到一些其他新聞標題，像是美國鋼鐵（U. S. Steel）下調——我想是維持部分高爐停產。過去你提到關稅其實有幫助國內——燃料生產、以及國內冶金煤消耗。所以我想問，這些或其他明確事件，是否已反映在更新後的指引之中？

Yes. Certainly, we had a huge -- we had a big volume quarter in steel and industrial coal. Now what's happening with some of those announcements, unfortunately, some of those producers -- the world's changing a little bit, and we just talked about the declining or the softening industrial environment, which is obviously impacting them. Following the tariffs, they saw an increase in production. Unfortunately, now that -- with the markets there, so huge inventories went up, the markets' getting a little softer, prices are coming down. And so there's probably an excess in capacity there. And so yes, we expect that our metals and equipment volumes in the second half, just because of the softer industrial environment, will get a little bit softer unfortunately.

是的。確實，我們在鋼鐵與工業煤方面有一個——有一個很大的運量季度。但不幸的是，隨著一些公告出來，其中一些生產商——世界正在有些變化，而我們剛才也談到工業環境在走弱或趨緩，這顯然正在影響他們。關稅之後，他們看到產量增加。但不幸的是，隨著市場狀況如此，庫存大幅上升，市場變得稍微疲軟，價格也在下滑。因此那裡可能出現產能過剩。所以是的，我們預期下半年金屬與設備的運量，因為工業環境較疲弱，不幸地也會稍微走弱。

Okay. So it sounds like it's considered in your current update?

好的。所以聽起來這已經納入你們目前的更新之中？

It is.

是的。

Your next question comes from Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的Amit Mehrotra。

Congrats on the good operating performance. Jim, can you, I guess, maybe talk about the pricing environment? Is it harder to push pricing in the current volume and low-inflation environment? And can you just give us maybe a flavor of your ability to, just simply put, just charge a higher price for the better service that you guys are delivering?

恭喜你們營運表現不錯。Jim，你能否談談定價環境？在目前運量下滑且通膨偏低的環境下，推動漲價是否更困難？另外，你能否讓我們大概了解一下：簡單說，你們提供更好的服務之後，是否有能力收取更高的價格？

Well, if you look at the -- again, let's focus on the -- there's 2 different business segments, there's intermodal and there's carload. Intermodal, our obligation there is to deliver a product that's as close as a truck-like and to do so at a price that's cheaper than a truck because of the service differentiation between the fact that the lift -- the time in transit is going to take longer.

嗯，如果你看——再一次，我們先聚焦在——我們有兩個不同的業務區塊：聯運（intermodal）與整車（carload）。聯運方面，我們的責任是提供一個盡可能接近卡車式（truck-like）的產品，並且以低於卡車的價格來提供，因為服務差異在於：吊裝（lift）——運輸在途時間會更長。

So as there's a very soft truck market out there right now, and as Mark said, a lot of excess capacity based upon some recent historical changes in the marketplace, it's a little more difficult for us. On the other hand, what we're really focusing on and as we talked a lot about, because it's 2/3 of our business and very profitable long-term business for us is the carload business.

因此，當前卡車市場非常疲軟，而且如Mark所說，基於市場上一些近期的歷史性變化，存在大量過剩產能，對我們來說就更困難一些。另一方面，我們真正專注的——也如我們談了很多次的——因為它占我們業務的2/3，且長期對我們而言非常有利可圖——是整車業務。

From a high-level perspective, in that situation, we know that we're -- that our customers are paying a 15% to 20% premium to move their product in a truck because they want to buy service reliability. As we become more reliable in that supply chain, we should be able to get more and more of that business, and we should be able to do so at a premium price because the customer's actually saving money by putting -- taking the business off the highway and putting it in a railcar. So that's where we focus intently on, leveraging this service product. Mark, do you want to add to that?

從高層次來看，在那種情況下，我們知道——我們的客戶為了購買服務可靠性，願意支付比鐵路高出15%到20%的溢價，用卡車來運送他們的產品。當我們在供應鏈中變得更可靠時，我們應該能取得越來越多那樣的業務，而且我們也應該能以溢價價格來承接，因為客戶實際上透過——把業務從公路移開、改放到鐵路車廂上——是在省錢。所以這就是我們高度聚焦的地方：運用這個服務產品。Mark，你要補充嗎？

No. I think that's exactly right. And as we become more reliable and persistent, and as the markets soften and customers are holding on to product and just-in-time deliveries become more important, our service comes at a premium, and I think customers recognize that. We do a good job for them. We get it there when we say we're going to get it. Our deliveries are -- our trip plan compliance is very good. And so they're willing to pay for that premium service.

不。我認為那完全正確。而且，隨著我們變得更可靠、更具持續性，加上市場轉弱、客戶更傾向於握著庫存，而即時（just-in-time）交付變得更重要時，我們的服務就能以溢價提供，我認為客戶也認同這一點。我們為他們做得很好。我們會在我們承諾的時間把貨送達。我們的交付——我們的行程計畫遵循率非常好。因此他們願意為這種高端服務支付溢價。

Well just as a quick follow up to that. And why wouldn't we see that then, those market share gains, show up in the revenue? I mean, the revenue revision is not surprising given all the headwinds you've discussed. But would have thought with the improvements of the network on the carload side, the market share opportunity you just talked about, the realignment of the sales organization, those could translate to some market share gains. And so maybe it just takes a little longer than I appreciate. If you could just talk about where you are in kind of the evolution of capturing that market share. Because it doesn't seem like it's showing up in the revenue numbers this year, at least.

那我就快速追問一下。那為什麼我們沒有看到那些市占率提升反映在營收上呢？我的意思是，考量到你們提到的各種逆風，下修營收並不令人意外。但我原本以為，車皮（carload）端網路的改善、你剛提到的市占機會、銷售組織的重新調整，這些應該能轉化為一些市占率提升。所以也許只是需要比我想像更長的時間。你能否談談你們目前在捕捉這些市占的演進進度大概到哪裡了？因為至少今年看起來，這似乎還沒有反映在營收數字上。

Well, again, as I'd like to point out, again, the carloads are pretty -- the carload -- we are the most transparent industry in the world in as much as we report our sales volume on a weekly basis. And our merchandise business segment, even though everybody says, oh my God, something's wrong with CSX, the volumes are down 10%, well it's all intermodal, and we already told everybody in the world why our intermodal business was going to be down, and nobody focused on the fact that our merchandise franchise was outperforming everybody else in the industry. This is what exactly what we're talking about.

嗯，再次強調一下——車皮量其實相當——車皮——我們是世界上最透明的產業，因為我們每週都會公布銷售量。而我們的商品運輸（merchandise）業務部門，雖然大家都說，天啊，CSX 一定出了什麼問題，量下滑了 10%，但那全都是聯運（intermodal），而我們早就告訴全世界為什麼我們的聯運業務會下滑，卻沒有人注意到我們的商品運輸特許經營（franchise）其實表現優於業界其他所有人。這正是我們在談的事情。

So up until most recently, where we saw a couple of our industrial segments get much softer, we are very confident that the strategy of going -- having noncyclical growth in our merchandise segment is achievable based upon our service product. And unfortunately, as I said, half of this -- or a significant portion of this merchandise business that we've now taken that guidance down on was associated with this onetime customer event. And the rest of it is just kind of basically market-driven where, in certain segments, with our industrial customers, again, our grain business is doing really great. A lot of our segments of our business are doing really great.

所以直到最近——我們看到幾個工業類別的業務變得更疲弱之前——我們一直非常有信心：基於我們的服務產品，在商品運輸部門實現非循環性成長的策略是可達成的。而不幸的是，如我所說，我們這次——或其中相當一部分——我們現在下修指引的這些商品運輸業務，與一次性的客戶事件有關。其餘部分基本上就是市場驅動的：在某些工業客戶的細分領域。再說一次，我們的穀物業務表現非常好。

Not all grain moves in unit train, a lot of grain moves in a boxcar -- individual boxcar that we're taking from a truck and put in a boxcar. So across the board in this merchandise segment, we're seeing gains, we're seeing traffic come to us. And if you're a customer right now that's kind of looking in the -- and saying like, wow, maybe things are a little soft, maybe I'd better see what I can do to rightsize my business, to take control of my cost structure, how can I save money in running my business, and so, I can reduce my transportation spend overnight by taking the traffic off the road and putting it in a boxcar. 10 years ago, I wouldn't have done that because, Jesus, if I would have, the product would have never got to where it was supposed to be. Nowadays, I'm willing to do that and I could save money.

並非所有穀物都以整列列車（unit train）運輸，很多穀物是用棚車（boxcar）——單節棚車——我們把貨從卡車轉運到棚車裡。所以在整個商品運輸部門，我們看到全面性的成長，我們看到貨量轉向我們。而如果你現在是一位客戶，正在觀察並想著：哇，也許景氣有點轉弱，也許我最好看看能做些什麼來讓我的業務規模更合適（rightsize）、掌控我的成本結構；我該如何在經營上省錢？那麼，我可以把貨從公路移到棚車上，讓我的運輸支出一夜之間就降低。十年前我不會這麼做，因為天啊，如果我那樣做，貨品根本不可能準時送到該到的地方。但現在，我願意這麼做，而且我可以省錢。

So we're pretty confident on that, and I think -- and we think that the numbers are beginning to prove that -- prove us correct.

所以我們對此相當有信心，而且我認為——我們也認為——數字開始證明這點——證明我們是對的。

If I could just ask one follow-up for Kevin, with respect to the cost opportunities you laid out. Kevin, do you expect to see a lot of improvement in the second half versus the stellar results you guys put up in the second quarter? 3Q typically looks a lot like 2Q, but I'm not sure if there's any further opportunity, given the cost items that you laid out.

我可以再追問 Kevin 一個問題嗎？關於你提出的成本機會。Kevin，你預期下半年相較於你們第二季繳出的亮眼成果，還會有很大的改善嗎？第三季通常看起來很像第二季，但我不確定在你列出的那些成本項目之下，是否還有進一步的空間。

Yes. I think Jim addressed this previously. I don't think we're going to get into back half versus first half dynamics in terms of OR. What I can tell you is, there's a number of initiatives that we've been working on over the last month that are new to our plan to react to this downward guidance in our top line.

是的。我想 Jim 先前已經談到這點。我不認為我們會就營運比率（OR）去討論下半年相對於上半年的動態。我能告訴你的是，過去一個月我們一直在推動一些措施，這些是我們計畫中新加入的，用來因應我們對營收端（top line）下修的指引。

So yes, we're reacting quickly, not only across G&A, it's across all aspects of our business. Jamie, Ed, Bob and Brian are onboard, and new ideas are coming to us every day. And it's our job to identify those and go after them. But we're not going to get into nuance of second half versus first half.

所以是的，我們反應很快，不僅在管理與一般費用（G&A）方面，而是涵蓋我們業務的各個面向。Jamie、Ed、Bob 和 Brian 都已加入，新點子每天都在出現。而我們的工作就是辨識這些點子並付諸行動。但我們不會去談下半年相對於上半年的細微差異。

Your next question comes from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Brandon Oglenski。

This is David Zazula on for Brandon. Just a little bit of drill-down into the prior question about pricing getting in terms of merchandise versus intermodal. Some of the service metrics you showed on intermodal in terms of trip plan compliance show really good trip plan compliance on the intermodal side. Could that make you, potentially, a victim of your own success, in that there's not as much room to go positive on the service side and try to drive conversion from the truck? Or are there more nuanced aspects of the service that you can still provide that would be beneficial to shippers currently using truck?

我是代替 Brandon 的 David Zazula。我想再深入一點，延續前一題關於商品運輸與聯運在定價方面的問題。你們展示的聯運服務指標中，就行程計畫遵循率而言，聯運端的遵循率看起來非常好。這會不會讓你們在某種程度上成為「自己成功的受害者」：也就是說，在服務面要再進一步改善、並嘗試推動從卡車轉換過來的空間變小了？或者在服務上還有更細緻的面向，你們仍能提供，對目前使用卡車的貨主會有幫助？

Our metrics in intermodal versus carload business reflect the nature of 2 different kinds of businesses. The intermodal is terminal-to-terminal, point-to-point, and it's much easier to have those kind of high trip plan compliance numbers versus carload. A lot of things we can do there on the terminal side in order to improve that customer experience, and I'll let Mark tell you about some of the great stuff we're doing on the technology side in intermodal that we think is going to differentiate ourselves as well.

我們在聯運與車皮業務的指標，反映的是兩種不同業務型態的本質差異。聯運是場站到場站（terminal-to-terminal）、點到點（point-to-point），相較於車皮業務，要達到那種高行程計畫遵循率的數字要容易得多。在場站端我們還能做很多事情來改善客戶體驗；我會讓 Mark 跟你談談我們在聯運的科技面正在做的一些很棒的事情，我們認為這也會讓我們更具差異化。

Yes. Well, I mean, again, across the board, I mean, we are -- lots of great things going on across the board with it, in terms of gate reservation systems, all kinds of things that the terminals are making it easier for customers to do business with us, whether it's on the website, lots of opportunities. But clearly, when we talk about converting a lot of business, merchandise is really where we see the greatest of opportunity. And driving that conversion from truck to our -- into our merchandise business, lots of opportunity there. We're seeing some great results. We're converting a lot of business as we speak. Because of our service that's improved so dramatically, our customers are responding to the reliability and the consistency that we're providing at a great price. And so I think there's a lot of opportunities left. But clearly, both on the intermodal side and on the merchandise side, there's opportunities for continued growth there.

是的。嗯，我的意思是，再次強調，整體來看——我們在各方面都有很多很棒的進展，例如門禁預約系統（gate reservation systems）等等，各種措施讓場站更容易讓客戶與我們做生意，不論是在網站上，還有很多機會。但很明顯，當我們談到把大量業務轉換過來時，商品運輸才是我們看到最大機會的地方。而推動從卡車轉到我們——轉入我們的商品運輸業務，這方面有很多機會。我們看到一些很好的成果。我們此刻正在轉換大量業務。因為我們的服務大幅改善，客戶對我們提供的可靠性與一致性、以及具競爭力的價格，反應非常正面。所以我認為仍有很多機會。但很明顯，不論在聯運端或商品運輸端，都還有持續成長的機會。

Your next question comes from Chris Wetherbee with Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗（Citi）的 Chris Wetherbee。

Wanted to ask about the guidance, and maybe specifically, can you help us sort of break out what you think the volume expectations are for the back half of the year? I don't know if you want to sort of handle that on a merchandise versus intermodal type of dynamic because clearly, there's some company-specific initiatives on the intermodal side that are reducing volume. But just any help there to kind of think about that mix of what's yield and what's volume in the back half?

想請教一下關於指引（guidance），更具體地說，您能否協助我們拆解一下您對今年下半年運量（volume）預期是什麼？我不確定您是否想用商品（merchandise）對比聯運（intermodal）這種動態來說明，因為很明顯，在聯運端有一些公司特定的措施正在降低運量。但若能提供一些協助，讓我們在思考下半年時，能更好地理解其中哪些是收益率（yield），哪些是運量（volume）的影響。

Well, Chris, I mean, we're expecting that the volume in the second half is going to -- at this point in time, is probably -- we're going to have to work really hard to make the volume equal to or better than what we had in the first half and that's the challenge, as I said. Again, we came into the year expecting to be up 1% to 2%. The first quarter was, under the circumstances, with a lot of noise going on, it was still a pretty good quarter. But there's a lot of the segments, especially intermodal, just didn't bounce back with the way everybody expected it to be.

嗯，Chris，我是說，我們預期下半年的運量——就目前這個時間點來看——大概是——我們得非常努力，才能讓運量與上半年持平或更好，這就是我說的挑戰。再說一次，我們年初進來時預期會成長 1% 到 2%。第一季在各種雜音很多的情況下，仍然算是相當不錯的一季。但有很多業務區塊，尤其是聯運，並沒有像大家原先預期那樣反彈。

And so what we're saying right now is kind of take today as the run rate. And hopefully, we can do a little bit better than we did in the first half, even with a pretty strong quarter. But that's -- we don't have a big hockey stick anymore here anymore to work with. Relatively flat, we should get a tick up in the second -- in the fourth quarter of the year just simply because the intermodal starts over -- we start to get out of some of this de-marketing of certain lands. But on an absolute numbers basis, that's just pretty much a pretty good -- for planning purposes, for our guidance right now, and I'm pleased that I hope I'm proven wrong and we do see things turning stronger in the later part of the year, we're just assuming that this is kind of the new norm for guidance purposes.

所以我們現在的說法是，把今天的狀況當作目前的運行水準（run rate）。希望我們能比上半年做得稍微好一些，即便上半年已經有一個相當強勁的季度。但——我們這裡已經沒有那種很大的「曲棍球棒」式（hockey stick）的後段拉升可以依靠了。整體相對持平；到今年第四季，應該會小幅上升一點，原因很單純：聯運開始——我們開始走出對某些車道（lanes）的去行銷（de-marketing）。但以絕對數字來看，這基本上就是一個相當不錯的——就規劃而言、就我們目前的指引而言——而且我也希望事後證明我錯了、在今年後段確實看到更強的轉好；但就指引目的而言，我們只是先假設這大概就是新的常態。

Chris, with our first half of the year, revenue was up 2%. We're now guiding for the full year down 1% to 2%. We still expect pricing to remain positive, so I think the math is pretty simple there.

Chris，我們上半年營收成長了 2%。我們現在對全年指引是下滑 1% 到 2%。我們仍預期定價（pricing）會維持正向，所以我想這個數學其實很簡單。

Okay. That's helpful. I appreciate that. And then just on the pricing side, and maybe just thinking about yield in general, drilling down to the coal numbers. There's some puts and takes, and when export volumes move around a little bit, you tend to have fluctuation in the coal yields. When you think about the back half, should we be looking at 2Q as a reasonably good benchmark to use for the back half when we're modeling out, just trying to get a sense of is there other sort of movements between met and thermal that we should expect as we move into the back half of the year? It sounds like the guidance for 40 million tons still holds, just want to get a sense if there's any moving parts within that. Is 2Q a good number to use for coal yields?

好的。這很有幫助。謝謝您。接著在定價端，或更一般地從收益率（yield）的角度來看，想再深入到煤炭（coal）的數字。這裡有一些相互抵消的因素；當出口量（export volumes）有些波動時，煤炭收益率往往也會跟著波動。當您看下半年時，我們在建模時是否可以把第二季（2Q）當作下半年的一個相當不錯的基準？主要想了解，隨著進入下半年，在冶金煤（met）與動力煤（thermal）之間，是否還會有其他我們應該預期的變化？聽起來 4,000 萬噸的指引仍然不變，只是想了解其中是否有任何變動因素。第二季是否是用來估算煤炭收益率的好數字？

I think so. I think so, Chris. Listen, again, as you're looking at the RPUs in coal, as you know, in any given quarter, always lots of moving parts there. Q2, coal RPU was down, obviously, but that was really a reflection of some gains that we got in shorter haul business and in our utilities business to the north, which is generally lower RPU than the utility business to the south.

我認為是的。我認為是的，Chris。聽著，再次強調，當你看煤炭的每單位收入（RPU）時，如你所知，每一季總是有很多變動因素。第二季煤炭 RPU 下滑很明顯，但那其實反映的是：我們在較短運距（shorter haul）的業務，以及我們北部的公用事業（utilities）業務上有所斬獲；而北部的公用事業業務，其 RPU 通常低於南部的公用事業業務。

And then as I talked about in the earlier question, some of the steel industrial growth that we saw -- saw some strong volumes there, which is, again, some lower RPU than typically we see on the whole coal. But no, I think, going forward, sort of what you see is what you get for -- what you should probably think about as we -- as you plan out the back half of the year.

另外，如我在前一個問題提到的，我們看到一些鋼鐵工業（steel industrial）的成長——那裡的運量很強，而那同樣是 RPU 較低的業務，通常低於我們在整體煤炭上看到的水準。但不，我認為，往後來看，大致上「你看到的就是你會得到的」——也就是說，當你規劃下半年時，應該大致以目前看到的狀況來思考。

Your next question comes from Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀（UBS）的 Tom Wadewitz。

Wanted to ask you first on the just kind of broader approach on price and volume. I'm confident you'll show discipline but how do we think about how you want to dial the -- how you want to approach the dial or the levers? Will you get more aggressive in terms of kind of competitive position to support the volumes as you see just less volume out there? Or is it something where you'll kind of let the volume flow with the market and you try to keep price that reflects what's good service and discipline and all that?

首先想問一下，關於定價與運量的更宏觀做法。我相信你們會展現紀律，但我們應該如何理解你們想如何調整——如何運用這些「旋鈕」或「槓桿」？當你們看到市場上可取得的運量變少時，是否會在競爭定位上更積極，以支撐運量？或者你們會讓運量隨市場自然流動，同時努力維持能反映良好服務、紀律等因素的價格？

So hey, Tom, we should be -- again, Jim mentioned what we're going to do on the volume side and we're going to take it as it comes and we're going to be -- we've got a long pipeline of initiatives, of things that I talked about in the past, whether it's on the marketing side, whether it's on the business that we do with our short line partners, whether it's stuff that we're doing on the regional sales, whether it's a whole host of industrial projects, industrial development projects that we've got going on. I mean clearly, a long list of initiatives that we're working on, and so we're going to convert that volume as it comes to us and we're working hard every day to bring more volume onto the railroad.

所以，Tom，我們應該會——再次強調，Jim 提到我們在運量端要做的事：我們會順勢而為、見招拆招；而且我們有一長串的措施管線（pipeline），也就是我過去談過的那些事情——不論是行銷端、我們與短線鐵路（short line）夥伴合作的業務、區域銷售（regional sales）在做的事情，或是一整套我們正在推進的工業專案、工業開發（industrial development）專案。我的意思是，我們正在推動的措施清單很長，所以運量只要來到我們這裡，我們就會把它轉化為實際運量；我們每天都在努力把更多運量帶上鐵路。

But let's be very clear, we're still achieving very strong value on the renewals and one of them I spoke about in Q1 on pricing, continued into Q2. Every contract that we have still needs to come across my desk for approval. And I can tell you that I'm extremely pleased with the discipline that our team is bringing. And so we're working hard to pull on both levers, and we're taking a disciplined approach.

但我們要講得很清楚：我們在續約（renewals）上仍然取得非常強的價值；我在第一季談到的定價情況，在第二季也持續。我們的每一份合約仍然都需要送到我桌上核准。我可以告訴你，我對團隊展現的紀律感到非常滿意。因此我們會同時努力拉動兩個槓桿，並採取有紀律的方法。

Okay. Yes, great. That's helpful, Mark. One other question, just how should we think about the operating ratio in an environment, not necessarily second half of the year, I know you've given us a kind of full year commentary, but perhaps if we look to 2020 and you say, well, you're in an environment where revenue is flat, do you have enough kind of initiatives left? I know Kevin identified some. But do you have enough efficiency gains left to improve the OR if revenue is flat? How might we think about that perhaps from a kind of a broader perspective or 2020 or however you want to frame it?

好的。是的，很好。這很有幫助，Mark。另外一個問題：在某種環境下，我們應該如何看待營運比率（operating ratio, OR）？不一定是今年下半年——我知道你們已經對全年做了評論——但如果看 2020 年，假設你們處在營收持平的環境，你們是否還有足夠的措施可以推進？我知道 Kevin 提到了一些。但如果營收持平，你們是否還有足夠的效率提升（efficiency gains）來改善 OR？我們應該如何從更宏觀的角度來思考這件事，或以 2020 年為例，或用你們想要的方式來框架？

Well, I think what we just said is we're going to improve the operating ratio more than 1 point when revenue is down. So we'll do our -- if we're faced with similar circumstances, that's the hand we're dealt, we'll do everything in our power to manage the business accordingly.

嗯，我想我們剛才說的是：在營收下滑的情況下，我們仍會把營運比率改善超過 1 個百分點。所以如果我們面臨類似的情況——那就是我們拿到的牌——我們會盡一切所能，據此把業務管理好。

And you think that could be the case beyond just second half?

你認為這種情況可能不只發生在下半年嗎？

Well, that helped. Like I said, this is not end of days.

嗯，那確實有幫助。如我所說，這不是世界末日。

Yes. Right. Right.

是的。對。對。

Yes. There's a -- again, there's a certain amount -- obviously, there's a certain amount -- the 2 variables that we -- 2 variables that we obviously need to work with are volume and inflation on the operating side. And to the extent that we do get some cost reduction associated with volume, reductions or increases, if it goes the other way, our challenge each and every year is to offset whatever the inflection number is.

是的。再說一次，這裡有一定程度——很明顯，有一定程度——我們顯然需要處理的兩個變數是營運端的運量與通膨。而在我們確實能因運量變化而取得一些成本降低的情況下，不論是降低或若反向則增加，我們每一年面臨的挑戰就是要抵銷不論通膨數字是多少所帶來的影響。

And hopefully, if we're providing a high-quality product, as Mark said, and we're pricing appropriately, that should help us a lot to get us going in the right direction from a cost -- which would help on the operating ratio side in addition to keep finding ways to improve efficiency.

而且希望如果我們提供的是高品質產品，如 Mark 所說，並且定價得宜，這將在成本面大幅幫助我們朝正確方向前進——這除了持續尋找提升效率的方法之外，也會有助於營運比率表現。

We have a long ways to go and a long list of initiatives to work on. We're far -- in all of these various categories, we're far from best-in-class. We like to brag, but we benchmark against just about everything that everybody else does, not even -- not just in the railroad industry to try and figure out where we can improve. And we have a long ways to go in just about every segment of the way we do business.

我們還有很長的路要走，也有一長串的計畫要推動。在這些不同的類別中，我們距離同業最佳水準還差得遠。我們喜歡自我吹捧，但我們幾乎拿所有人做的每一件事來做標竿比較——甚至不只是鐵路產業——以找出我們可以改善的地方。而在我們經營業務的幾乎每一個環節，我們都還有很長的路要走。

Your next question comes from Justin Long with Stephens.

下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Justin Long。

So last quarter, I think you talked about head count being down 6% to 7% this year, which would roughly be in line with attrition. Based on the volume weakness you've seen year-to-date and it sounds like you'll see in the second half, what's your flexibility to reduce head count further? And do you have any updated thoughts around what that percentage looks like in 2019?

所以在上一季，我記得你們提到今年人頭數會下降 6% 到 7%，大致與自然流失率一致。基於你們今年迄今看到的運量疲弱，以及聽起來下半年也會如此，你們進一步降低人頭數的彈性有多大？另外，對於 2019 年這個百分比大概會是多少，你們有沒有更新的看法？

Yes. We're still well on track to meet that forecast that we have, the 6% to 8%. I think I mentioned in my opening comments that really, overtime is a big focus of ours right now, it's significant cost and significant savings opportunity going forward. Certainly, we're going to continue to look at head count and -- but we're going to use attrition where we can. So we have a great line of sight to what that number looks like, and probably, we'll see if we get to go a little bit harder there, depending on how the volumes come in the back half of the year.

是的。我們仍然很有把握達成我們的預測，也就是 6% 到 8%。我想我在開場談話中提到，現在加班是我們非常聚焦的一個重點，這是一項顯著成本，也是在未來具有顯著節省空間的機會。當然，我們會持續檢視人頭數——但能用自然流失的地方我們就會用自然流失。因此我們對那個數字會長什麼樣子有很清楚的能見度；而且可能會視下半年運量的表現，看看我們是否需要在那方面再更用力一些。

Okay. And secondly, I wanted to circle back to domestic intermodal and your expectations for growth on that front. I know it's a little bit noisy with some of the lane rationalizations. But if you kind of take that out of the equation, what do you see is the underlying growth rate for domestic intermodal as we get into the back half of this year and longer term?

了解。第二個問題，我想回到國內聯運以及你們對該領域成長的預期。我知道因為一些路線精簡而有點雜訊。但如果把那部分先排除，你們認為今年下半年以及更長期來看，國內聯運的基本成長率會是多少？

Well, tell me what the economy is going to do in the back half of the year, I'll tell you what intermodal is going to do. Listen, I think there's a lot of -- as we talked about the excess supply that's out there, the truck supply capacity, we hopefully are flattish in intermodal. We think there's going to be a good peak, but it's probably going to be somewhat muted versus the extremely strong peak that we saw in 2018. So I think volume levels are going to pick up a little bit, but probably not as peak-ish as we saw, as we have historically seen.

嗯，你先告訴我下半年經濟會怎麼走，我就告訴你聯運會怎麼走。聽著，我認為有很多——如我們談到的，市場上存在的過剩供給、卡車運能供給——我們希望聯運能大致持平。我們認為旺季會不錯，但相較於 2018 年我們看到的極強旺季，可能會稍微溫和一些。所以我認為運量水準會小幅回升，但可能不會像我們看到的、以及歷史上常見的那麼「旺季化」。

Listen, longer-term domestic intermodal, my view is there's no reason why this franchise should not be able to grow on an annualized basis whatever GDP gives us plus 2 or 3 points.

聽著，長期來看國內聯運，我的看法是，沒有理由這個事業體不能在年化基礎上，達到 GDP 所帶來的成長再加上 2 到 3 個百分點。

Okay. And just to clarify your comment on flat markets, is that flat domestic intermodal volumes, excluding rationalizations in the back half? Is that what you were saying?

了解。再釐清一下你對持平市場的評論：你指的是下半年在排除精簡路線影響後，國內聯運運量持平嗎？你剛剛是這個意思嗎？

No, including our rationalizations. So again, we lap -- we're officially lap the end of the rationalizations in January of next year. We took off again in January of this year of '19 a 5%. So overall, since we began this journey in December of 2017, we've rationalized over 15% of the intermodal network. Most of that, a lot of that lapse in October and then the final bit lapse in December -- or in January, excuse me.

不是，是包含我們的路線精簡在內。所以再說一次，我們——我們正式在明年一月才會完全跨過（lap）精簡措施結束的基期。我們在今年 2019 年一月又再下調了 5%。因此整體而言，自從我們在 2017 年 12 月開始這段旅程以來，我們已經精簡了超過 15% 的聯運網路。其中大部分——很多會在 10 月跨過基期，最後一小部分會在 12 月——或是一月，抱歉——跨過基期。

Your next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

Kevin, I don't know if I missed it, but you guys usually give some guidance on the other revenue expectations. Any color you can give us there?

Kevin，我不確定我是不是漏聽了，但你們通常會提供其他收入的預期指引。你能不能給我們一些說明？

Yes. I think you should expect about -- around the current levels that we did in the second quarter to continue through the back half of the year.

可以。我認為你們可以預期大致維持在我們第二季的目前水準，並延續到今年下半年。

Okay. Helpful. And then so with the more cautious sort of volume revenue outlook, does this change the way you guys think about target leverage ratios? Does it change the way you think about CapEx? I mean do you see some flexibility on the $1.6 billion?

了解。很有幫助。那麼在更為審慎的運量與營收展望下，這會改變你們對目標槓桿比率的看法嗎？會改變你們對資本支出（CapEx）的看法嗎？我是說，在 16 億美元上你們是否有一些彈性？

And then I guess just following up on that head count piece, why not do more on head count if the volumes are coming in worse?

另外我想就人頭數那一點追問一下，如果運量表現更差，為什麼不在人頭數上做更多調整？

I certainly think if we continue to see downward pressure on volumes, which is not our expectation, that you'd probably see some more opportunity there. There is variable cost in our business and then we would take a look at some other things as well.

我當然認為，如果我們持續看到運量下行壓力——這並不是我們的預期——那你可能會在那方面看到更多機會。我們的業務中有可變成本，然後我們也會檢視其他一些事項。

On the balance sheet right now, we're sitting on $1.6 billion in cash. We expect to generate a lot of cash in the second half of the year given the significant flexibility to be proactive and opportunistic as the market gives us an opportunity. We're well within our 2.5 to 2.75x leverage targets, debt to EBITDA. I think we're comfortable living in that area. We're at the bottom end of that today. So it gives us a lot of flexibility going forward. But again, with our cash balance, what we even have today and what we expect to generate through the back half of the year, it gives us a lot of opportunity to be opportunistic here.

就目前資產負債表而言，我們有 16 億美元現金。我們預期下半年會產生大量現金，因為我們具備相當大的彈性，可以在市場提供機會時採取更主動、也更具機會主義的作法。我們的槓桿目標（債務對 EBITDA）2.5 到 2.75 倍之內，目前我們遠低於上限。我想我們也很自在地維持在那個區間。我們今天是在那個區間的下緣。因此未來我們有很大的彈性。但再說一次，考量我們目前的現金餘額，以及我們預期在下半年所能產生的現金，這讓我們在這裡有很多把握機會的空間。

Your next question comes from Ben Hartford with Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ben Hartford。

Mark, I'm interested in your perspective on IMO 2020 and how customer conversations are shaping up in front of that. Do you expect it to have any sort of impact either in terms of international intermodal and pull-forward, anything along the crude or petroleum side of the equation? How are you guys thinking about that impact in the back half of the year and in the earlier part of 2020?

Mark，我想了解你對 IMO 2020 的看法，以及在此之前與客戶的對話目前進展如何。你預期它會帶來任何影響嗎？例如對國際聯運與提前拉貨（pull-forward）方面，或是在原油或石油相關的面向上？你們如何看待它在今年下半年以及 2020 年初的影響？

Yes, great question. We're obviously working and talking to our customers. I'll be visiting with a lot of the international steamship guys here in the next month or so. We're -- I know that's going to be a huge topic of discussion.

是的，這是個很好的問題。我們顯然正在與客戶合作並保持溝通。接下來一個月左右，我會拜訪許多國際遠洋航運公司的人士。我們——我知道這將會是個非常重要的討論主題。

We're -- clearly early indications, we don't think it will have a material change for our business. I know they're working on these issues as we speak. But where we stand right now, and again, maybe a little premature, maybe remind me to bring that question back up on the Q3 call and I'll give you maybe a little bit more color. But it's a topic of discussion coming up and -- but clearly, I think right now, we feel pretty comfortable that we're not going to see any material change.

我們——就目前明確的初步跡象來看，我們認為這不會對我們的業務造成重大變化。我知道他們此刻正在處理這些問題。但就我們目前的立場而言，而且再次強調，可能還有點言之過早；也許提醒我在第三季電話會議時再把這個問題拿出來談，我可以提供更多細節。不過這確實是接下來會討論的議題——但很明顯，我想就目前而言，我們相當有信心不會看到任何重大變化。

Okay. That's helpful. And then the revenue -- excuse me, the outlook you gave on intermodal is helpful. I'm curious on the merchandise side as well. I mean, obviously, I want to talk about the macro and the softness. But as you guys embark upon expanding the addressable market, what's the probability in 2020 that you can make enough progress, either selling service that are helping some of the sales and marketing efforts, to be able to drive to whatever a U.S industrial production growth number might be, plus some sort of multiplier within the merchandise category in 2020? Or is that simply too soon? Is it too near of a time horizon to be thinking about an offset yet from some of these initiatives?

好的。這很有幫助。另外，關於營收——不好意思，你對聯運（intermodal）的展望很有幫助。我也想了解商品貨運（merchandise）這一塊。我的意思是，顯然我想談談總體環境與疲弱情況。但當你們著手擴大可服務市場時，2020 年你們能取得足夠進展的機率有多大——不論是銷售能協助部分銷售與行銷工作的服務——以便在 2020 年商品貨運類別中，達到「美國工業生產成長率」再加上一個倍數的成長？還是說現在談這個太早？就時間範圍而言，是否還太近，尚不足以期待這些計畫能帶來抵消效果？

Well, it's a great question. Listen, again, as Jim said earlier, we're outperforming the U.S. rail industry today on our merchandise volume growth. We're up, after the second quarter, over 2%. The others are down for the year on merchandise. So clearly, the initiatives that we're working on, the changes to our service plan and the service that we're delivering are clearly having a lot of -- a big impact.

嗯，這是個很好的問題。聽著，再次如 Jim 先前所說，我們目前在商品貨運量成長方面，表現優於美國鐵路產業。第二季結束後，我們年初至今成長超過 2%。其他同業在商品貨運方面今年則是下滑。所以很明顯，我們正在推動的各項措施、對服務計畫的調整，以及我們所提供的服務，確實帶來了很大——很顯著的影響。

Now we're facing reality and the industrial economy is kind of slowing down here. And we've got a few headwinds going into the second half, which we have to live with. And obviously, the PES explosion was a major factor to us revising this. But as I said earlier, we have a number of initiatives going on and the team that Kevin used to lead in the marketing department before he became the interim CFO here is doing some great work analysis. Those are the -- we've got a team of data analytic people downstairs that are doing some great research and exposing a lot of opportunities for this organization. We're excited by that.

現在我們也必須面對現實，工業景氣在這裡有點放緩。而且下半年我們會遇到一些逆風，這些我們必須承受。顯然，PES 爆炸事件是我們修正（展望）的主要因素。但如我先前所說，我們正在進行多項計畫；而 Kevin 在成為臨時財務長之前，曾領導行銷部門的團隊，正在做非常出色的分析工作。那就是——我們樓下有一支資料分析團隊，正在做很棒的研究，並揭示這個組織的許多機會。我們對此感到振奮。

There's some -- obviously, some big opportunities and we're going after everything methodically, and we're looking to grow this organization. We're not just taking what we can get. We're going out there. We're being proactive. And this is about growing CSX. It's not just taking what the customer gives us. We're going to find opportunities to grow and convert truck traffic, and we're doing just that.

顯然有一些——一些很大的機會，我們正有條不紊地逐一推進，並希望讓這個組織成長。我們不只是被動接受能拿到的業務。我們會走出去。我們會主動出擊。這是關於讓 CSX 成長。不是只接受客戶給我們什麼。我們會找出成長機會並把卡車貨量轉換過來，而我們正在這麼做。

Your next question comes from Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.

下一個問題來自 Susquehanna 的 Bascome Majors。

You made a few changes in the C suite in the second quarter. I'm not sure if Farrukh's on the call, but if he is, I was hoping he could help us understand the responsibilities of this new role of Chief Strategy Officer and anything about the long-term or midterm vision that might entail, realizing he's 6 weeks into the job here. And Kevin, anything if you'd want to highlight your priorities for the financial organization under your leadership, that would be helpful.

你們在第二季對高階管理團隊（C suite）做了一些調整。我不確定 Farrukh 是否在線上，但如果他在，我希望他能協助我們了解這個新設「策略長（Chief Strategy Officer）」職位的職責，以及這個職位可能涵蓋的長期或中期願景——考量到他到職才 6 週。另外 Kevin，如果你願意強調在你領導下財務組織的優先事項，也會很有幫助。

Sure. I've known Farrukh for many, many years. We go way, way back, all the way back to the privatization of the Canadian National where we worked together on that initiative. At that time, and I've kept up with his career as I've moved around the industry as well. So I just felt that we're embarking on a significant transformation of CSX and a lot of things that we want to do differently, a lot of them in the area that Mark spoke of in terms of expanding on our reach and our interface with our customers. And Farrukh instantly came to mind because I felt that he had had great experience in working in that area.

當然。我認識 Farrukh 很多年了。我們的淵源很深，可以追溯到加拿大國家鐵路（Canadian National）民營化時期，我們曾一起在那個計畫上合作。從那時起，隨著我在產業內的職涯變動，我也一直關注他的發展。所以我覺得，我們正要推動 CSX 的重大轉型，並且有很多事情想用不同的方式來做，其中很多是在 Mark 提到的領域——也就是擴大我們的觸及範圍，以及與客戶的互動介面。而 Farrukh 立刻浮現在我腦海中，因為我認為他在那方面有非常好的經驗。

So it's all about what it is we can do to make our service offering, our whole rail product offering better to our customers. And to me that involves a significant amount of new thought, new direction, new vision from what has historically been done in the railroad industry, and that's what Farrukh's going to work with me on and make it happen.

所以這一切都在於：我們能做些什麼，讓我們的服務方案、整體鐵路產品方案，對客戶而言更好。而在我看來，這需要大量的新思維、新方向、新願景，跳脫鐵路產業過去一向的做法；這就是 Farrukh 將與我一起推動並落實的事情。

And Kevin, Kevin is phenomenal. He's doing a great job. We all appreciate that he was here and his skill set and his ability to step right in and pick up where Frank left off. Frank did an amazing job for CSX, and we're all happy that Kevin was here to help as we work through the transition. And we are -- I am in the process, as Kevin well knows. He's looking at me kind of sheepishly. As you all know, we're doing an external search to see if we can find the right person to fill this role. And as part of that process, Kevin is going to be considered.

至於 Kevin，Kevin 非常出色。他做得非常好。我們都很感謝他在這裡，憑藉他的技能組合與能力，能立刻接手並延續 Frank 離開前的工作。Frank 為 CSX 做得非常棒，而我們也很高興 Kevin 在這裡協助我們度過轉換期。而我們——我正在進行中，Kevin 也很清楚。他正有點靦腆地看著我。如各位所知，我們正在進行外部徵才，看看能否找到合適的人選來填補這個職位。而在這個流程中，Kevin 也會被納入考量。

Your next question comes from Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自 Goldman Sachs 的 Jordan Alliger。

Just a little pushing on the intermodal, the trip plan compliance looks really strong. And I'm just sort of wondering, the demarketing is going to lap by the end of the third quarter. So let's just say the economy sort of gets back to a 2.5% GDP type number or 2%, 2.5% as we move into 2020. Do you feel comfortable that at that point, you'll be able to start more aggressively remarketing the intermodal and do that GDP plus 2 to 3 points? Or is it premature?

我想再追問一下聯運（intermodal），行程計畫遵循度（trip plan compliance）看起來非常強勁。我只是想知道，去行銷（demarketing）的影響到第三季末就會消化完。所以假設經濟回到約 2.5% 的 GDP 成長，或 2%、2.5%，並在 2020 年逐步回升。你是否有信心屆時能更積極地重新行銷聯運業務（remarketing），並做到「GDP 再加 2 到 3 個百分點」的成長？還是說現在談這個還太早？

No, I said longer term, I think that would be our goal. Clearly, I'm not going to sit here in July of 2019 and provide you 2020 guidance. But longer term, as we think about the intermodal business, yes, that would be my hope and expectation given our franchise, the strength of our franchise and the service that we provide to the customers, which we're pretty proud of, that we would be able to do whatever the economy gives us plus 2 to 3 points above that.

不，我說的是長期來看，我認為那會是我們的目標。很明顯，我不會在 2019 年 7 月坐在這裡就提供 2020 年的指引。但長期而言，當我們思考聯運業務時，是的，基於我們的特許經營優勢、我們特許經營的強度，以及我們提供給客戶、我們也相當自豪的服務，我的希望與預期是：我們能做到不論經濟給我們多少，再在其上多出 2 到 3 個百分點。

So that's my wish. That's my goal. That's what we're going to work on. We're settling in on our footprint. We're doing really well on the lanes that we -- that we're in now. We're showing our customers what we're made of. And when the growth comes, we're ready to handle it and got excess capacity. And we're ready for the growth when it comes.

所以那就是我的願望。那就是我的目標。那就是我們要努力的方向。我們正在把我們的版圖穩定下來。我們在目前所處的賽道上表現得非常好。我們正在向客戶展現我們的實力。而當成長到來時，我們已準備好應對，並且有多餘的產能。當成長來臨時，我們也已準備就緒。

Okay. And then sort of next question, fully understand the need to be prudent in the guidance with all the various cross currents going on. I think though you might have mentioned in the very opening remarks, Jim, that customers remain cautiously optimistic. So I'm just sort of wondering, which areas might be where that optimism is. And if their optimism plays out and you sort of run that through your system, could we get back to that 1% type of revenue growth if the cautious optimism plays out?

好的。接著下一個問題，我完全理解在各種交互影響因素之下，指引需要保持審慎。不過我想你在開場致詞一開始就提到過，Jim，客戶仍然是謹慎樂觀的。所以我想請教，這種樂觀可能主要出現在哪些領域。如果他們的樂觀真的實現，並且你把它反映到你們的系統裡，我們是否有機會回到那種約 1% 的營收成長，如果這種謹慎樂觀成真？

Well, I think yesterday, Jamie at lunch had said they were pretty excited about the second half of the year. I think it was about 2 weeks ago on the front page of the newspaper, General Motors was talking about how great things were and on and on and on. Not necessarily our customers per se, but I think Jamie Dimon said it this morning, "Stop being so pessimistic, things aren't that bad."

嗯，我想昨天 Jamie 在午餐時說，他們對今年下半年相當興奮。我記得大概兩週前，報紙頭版上通用汽車在談論情況有多好，諸如此類。不一定是我們的客戶本身，但我想 Jamie Dimon 今天早上也說了：「別那麼悲觀，事情沒那麼糟。」

All we're doing is saying that there's been -- as I said, this slow drip since the beginning of the year where everyone has expressed concern. I think all of our customers, Mark interfaces with them more than I do on a daily basis, and maybe he wants to comment as well, but I think all of them have said from the very beginning, yes, this -- 2019 is expected to be -- was expected to be a slower year than last year. And as we went into the year, with all of the confusion and chaos more driven by governmental issues than anything, but if we didn't -- as you know, with government shutdowns, you name it and on and on and on, tariffs this, tariff that, if we didn't bring its calmness and noise down in the marketplace, we could begin to do things to damage the economy. So -- and nothing really has changed to make everyone feel different over the first 6 months.

我們所做的只是說，正如我提到的，從年初開始就一直有這種緩慢的下滑，大家都表達了擔憂。我想我們所有客戶——Mark 每天與他們接觸得比我多，也許他也想補充——但我認為他們從一開始就說，是的，2019 年預期會——原本就預期會比去年慢。而當我們進入今年，伴隨著各種混亂與動盪，更多是由政府議題所驅動而非其他因素；但如果我們沒有——如你所知，政府關門等等，諸如此類，關稅這個、關稅那個，如果我們無法讓市場上的不安與噪音降下來，我們可能開始做出一些會傷害經濟的事情。所以——在前 6 個月裡，並沒有真正出現什麼改變，讓大家的感受有所不同。

And so we're looking at it, is this the new norm for the rest of the year? And now we're talking about another government shutdown, maybe as early as September or October. And so as I said, unfortunately, in this day and age, I'm obligated, we're obligated to update guidance when it changed. And we were trying to figure out where to put the peg in. And so we said, let's pretty much take -- well, let's assume that what we have today continues for the rest of the year, and let's hope that we're wrong and that things pick up, as opposed to saying, well we don't really know, let's not take a realistic view. We can always -- we can always just take our guidance down again next quarter. And you don't want to get into that situation.

因此我們在看，這是否會成為今年剩餘時間的新常態？而現在又在談另一場政府關門，可能最早在 9 月或 10 月。所以如我所說，不幸的是，在這個時代，當情況改變時，我有義務、我們也有義務更新指引。而我們一直在試著找出該把釘子釘在哪裡。所以我們說，就讓我們大致採取——嗯，讓我們假設今天看到的狀況會延續到今年剩餘時間，並希望我們判斷錯了、事情會回升；而不是說，嗯我們其實不知道，就不要採取務實的看法。我們總是可以——我們總是可以在下個季度再把指引下修一次。而你不希望陷入那種情況。

So we think this is a realistic look at the state of the economy and where we fit in. And we're confident with that. Plus, it gives us the ability internally to say, "Hey guys, this is the new norm. Let's tighten our shoes. Let's get to work." And we're going to achieve our targets.

所以我們認為，這是對經濟現況以及我們所處位置的一個務實評估。而我們對此有信心。此外，這也讓我們在內部能夠說：「各位，這就是新常態。把鞋帶繫緊。開始幹活。」而我們會達成我們的目標。

Your next question comes from David Vernon with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 David Vernon。

So the down 1 to 2 for the full year, I'm just trying to get a sense for what that should -- what we should be expecting for sort of operating income dollars, not necessarily the operating ratio. The Street's right now got you up 3 inclusive of land sales, up 6 ex land sales. What kind of EBIT growth on a down 1 -- on a down sort of 3 to 4-ish back half of the year should we be expecting?

關於全年下滑 1% 到 2%，我想了解的是，這對營業利益金額（operating income dollars）大概意味著什麼，而不一定是營業比率。目前市場預期你們成長 3%（含土地出售），若不含土地出售則成長 6%。在下半年營收下滑 1%——也就是下半年大概下滑 3% 到 4% 左右的情境下，我們應該預期怎樣的 EBIT 成長？

David, as you know the math, if I give you the EBIT growth you would not know the OR. So by default, we're not giving you the OR ratio into the back half but we're probably on kind of...

David，如你所知，從數學上來說，如果我給你 EBIT 成長，你就無法推回 OR。所以基於這點，我們不會提供下半年 OR 比率，但我們大概會在某種……

Is it reasonable to expect up a little, down a little, flat? Can you give us some directional guidance on where the EBIT number will be?

預期小幅上升、小幅下降，還是持平，這樣合理嗎？你能否給我們一些方向性的指引，說 EBIT 數字會落在哪個方向？

Look, I think we gave the revenue guidance and we gave an OR target. And I think we're going to stick with that for now. We'll obviously update as we get further through the year.

你看，我想我們已經給了營收指引，也給了 OR 目標。我想我們目前就先維持這些。當然，隨著今年進展，我們會再更新。

All right. And maybe just as a follow-up, if you look at the sequential downturn in other revenue, the -- was that just like changing the rules on when you're charging demurrage? Because the volume was sequentially flat in intermodal and that was what was called out in the report. I'm just trying to get a sense for what drove that sort of sequential move lower in the other revenue.

好。再追問一下，如果你看其他營收（other revenue）的環比下滑——那是不是只是改變了你們收取滯期費（demurrage）的規則或時點？因為聯運（intermodal）的量環比持平，而報告裡也特別提到這點。我只是想了解，是什麼驅動了其他營收那種環比走低。

Well, when your intermodal volumes are down 10%, there's a lot less boxes sitting in terminals and we're charging a lot less. And certainly, as we've told everybody before, accessorial charges are something that we're not looking to make a lot of money there. It's really changing customer behaviors and getting boxes to flow and assets to move throughout the network. And so some of that is working. And we're working with our customers and we're seeing some good dwell numbers. And so we're happy with where that's trending. It was -- but obviously, a lot of that was driven by just lower intermodal volumes.

嗯，當你的聯運量下滑 10% 時，堆場裡停放的箱子就少很多，我們收取的費用也就少很多。而且我們之前也跟大家說過，附加費（accessorial charges）並不是我們想在那裡賺很多錢的項目。它真正的目的，是改變客戶行為，讓箱子流動、讓資產在網路中移動。所以其中一部分正在奏效。我們也在與客戶合作，看到一些不錯的停留時間（dwell）數據。因此我們對這個趨勢感到滿意。但——很明顯，其中很大一部分是由聯運量下降所驅動。

But the volume from 1 to 2Q were flat.

但從第一季到第二季的量是持平的。

Pardon me?

不好意思，你說什麼？

The 1 to 2Q, the sequential volume was kind of flattish and yet you went from like 168 to 124. I was trying to understand, did you see a really big pickup in the yard performance? Or was this just that you had built in adjacent...

從第一季到第二季，環比的量大致持平，但你們卻從大概 168 降到 124。我想了解的是，你們是否看到堆場表現大幅改善？還是只是你們原本把相鄰的……納入了……

No, this is -- most of this is international intermodal, and this is where these guys are the guys that say they can't have offsite storage. They must store their box in our terminal. Well, guess what? When you start charging them, suddenly they find ways and they move their boxes to container storage facilities located near our intermodal terminals. That's just the nature of the beast. So yes, volume on the international side was -- overall volume was down in intermodal. Volume on the international side was relatively flat. But the customer behavior that Mark just alluded to, these are the first guys that take advantage of that and get them out of there.

不是，這其中大部分是國際聯運（international intermodal），而這些客戶就是那種說他們不能在場外存放的客戶。他們必須把箱子存放在我們的場站。那你猜怎麼著？當你開始向他們收費時，他們突然就會想出辦法，把箱子移到位於我們聯運場站附近的貨櫃儲存設施。這就是這行的本質。所以是的，聯運整體量是下滑的。國際端的量相對持平。但正如 Mark 剛才提到的客戶行為，這些人是第一批會利用這點、把箱子移出去的。

Your next question comes from Jason Seidl with Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Jason Seidl。

I just got -- I have one question. Looking out in intermodal, obviously you guys demarketed some of the business because there wasn't enough from some of the lines and the profitability just wasn't there. It's clearly important to raise the profitability of intermodal. How much of that is improving service? And how much of that is going to be you guys going after higher prices?

我剛剛收到——我有一個問題。展望聯運（intermodal），顯然你們因為某些航運公司供給不足、而且獲利性也不夠，所以把部分業務退出市場。很明顯，提高聯運的獲利能力很重要。其中有多少是透過改善服務？又有多少是你們將透過提高價格來達成？

Yes. A lot of the work that we're working on right now is changing the footprint and working on taking out all the unnecessary touches and switching that we used to do with intermodal that was crazy, changing this hub-and-spoke system that we inherited when we joined the railroad, which caused a lot of inefficiencies in the -- in our intermodal product and in our service and drove up our intermodal cost significantly. And so we have changed that model. We have gotten out of a lot of the lanes that were clearly very unprofitable for us. We're focusing on what we do well and the lanes that we do well.

是的。我們目前正在做的很多工作，是在改變營運版圖（footprint），並著手移除過去在聯運業務中那些不必要的接觸點與調車/轉換作業；以前我們在聯運上做的那些操作簡直瘋狂。我們也在改變我們在併入鐵路時所承襲的樞紐—輻射（hub-and-spoke）系統，因為它在我們的聯運產品與服務上造成了大量低效率，並大幅推高了聯運成本。因此我們已經改變了那個模式。我們也退出了許多對我們而言顯然非常不賺錢的路線。我們正專注於我們擅長的事情，以及我們做得好的那些路線。

In our contracts, we have longer-term contracts, so it's not -- we're not susceptible to the very sort of mid- to high single-digit exposure to the spot market. So it doesn't really affect us too much, but most of our pricing is under long-term contracts with rate escalators, so annual rate escalators so -- but we're working there. And we're doing a good job. And we're going to see the profitability of that business segment improve over time.

在我們的合約中，我們有較長期的合約，因此我們不——我們不會像現貨市場那樣，承受中到高個位數的曝險。所以這對我們影響不大；但我們大部分的定價都在長期合約之下，並且有費率調升條款，也就是年度費率調升條款——不過我們正在那方面努力。而且我們做得不錯。隨著時間推移，我們將看到該業務部門的獲利能力改善。

Our next question comes from Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Walter Spracklin。

I'll keep it to one as well. Just again on the intermodal side and your effort, I think, Mark, you were saying, targeting trucking. Your -- one of your peers obviously in Canada is taking a little different approach to that. They're not only targeting the trucking market but investing in and buying intermodal assets within that market to kind of jump-start and accelerate that conversion, that truck to rail conversion. Is that something you would consider? Is that something you've looked at? What's your overall view on that strategy?

我也只問一個。再回到聯運以及你們的努力上，我想 Mark，你剛才提到是以卡車運輸為目標。你們——你們在加拿大的一家同業顯然採取了稍微不同的做法。他們不僅鎖定卡車運輸市場，還在該市場投資並收購聯運資產，以某種方式啟動並加速那個轉換，也就是從卡車轉到鐵路的轉換。這是你們會考慮的事情嗎？你們有研究過嗎？你對那個策略的整體看法是什麼？

I think they are smart people. Jim and I know them really well. Obviously, I spent a lot of my career at that railroad, I admire what they're doing. We have a little bit of a different model here in the United States than up north. But we look at what they're doing and -- but I'm not going to share with you on the call today strategies for the future. But listen, we -- as Jim alluded to, we're looking for growth opportunities everywhere, whether that's in merchandise, whether that's in intermodal. And you never say never to any opportunity that comes across your desk.

我認為他們是很聰明的人。Jim 和我都非常了解他們。顯然，我職涯有很大一部分是在那家鐵路公司度過的，我很欣賞他們正在做的事。我們在美國這邊的模式，和北方（加拿大）有些不同。但我們會看他們在做什麼——不過我今天不會在電話會議上與各位分享未來的策略。但各位聽著，我們——正如 Jim 所提到的，我們到處都在尋找成長機會，不論是在一般貨運（merchandise），或是在聯運。而且對於任何擺到你桌上的機會，你永遠不會把話說死。

They're changing the key and looking at it, we're watching what they're doing.

他們正在改變關鍵做法並重新檢視，我們也在觀察他們在做什麼。

Yes.

是的。

Fair enough. So maybe if I could sneak one in there as well, an extra one, R&D. Mark, again you mentioned it. Technology, I think the rail industry is right for it. Can we see or do you expect to see -- this is better for Jim perhaps, more of your CapEx dollars going toward potential investment in accelerating the R&D applicability to rail to get some of those extra efficiencies from that trend? Just curious your thoughts on that.

可以理解。那也許我可以再塞一個問題，額外一個，關於研發（R&D）。Mark，你又提到了它。科技方面，我認為鐵路產業很適合導入。我們是否能看到——或你是否預期會看到——這可能更適合 Jim 來回答，你們會把更多資本支出（CapEx）投入到可能的投資上，以加速研發在鐵路上的可用性/落地，從這個趨勢中取得一些額外的效率？只是想聽聽你的看法。

This is Kevin. First of all, tech dollars are up this year. So we are spending more on CapEx technology but I'll let Jim answer the rest of the question.

我是 Kevin。首先，今年的科技支出是增加的。所以我們在科技方面的資本支出投入更多，但其餘問題我讓 Jim 來回答。

Well, again, it's something we're always looking at ways to -- we're here to grow the business, simple as that. It's not -- despite what a lot of people say, but not you guys, a lot of people say, we're here to shrink the business to profitability. We're here to make the business run better so that we can grow it. And we'll look at every opportunity where we can make a buck and make -- in the process, make the shareholders rich and famous. And that's what it's all about. So we're always studying every opportunity that we can pursue.

嗯，再次強調，這是我們一直在看的事情——我們總是在尋找讓業務——我們在這裡就是要成長業務，就這麼簡單。並不是——儘管很多人這麼說，但不是你們，各位——很多人說我們是為了獲利而縮小業務規模。我們是要把業務運作得更好，這樣我們才能把它做大。我們會看每一個能賺錢的機會，並且——在這個過程中，讓股東變得富有且聲名遠播。這就是全部的重點。所以我們一直在研究我們可以追求的每一個機會。

At this time, I'll turn the call back over to the speakers.

此時，我會把電話會議交回給發言人。

Thank you, everyone, for joining today. I think that concludes our call.

謝謝各位今天加入。我想我們的電話會議到此結束。

This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。您可以掛斷電話線。