CSX Corporation (CSX) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to CSX Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) For opening remarks and introduction, I would now like to turn the call to Mr. Kevin Boone, Chief Investor Relations Officer for CSX Corporation.

各位女士、先生們，下午好，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2018 年第四季財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。(接線員指示) 接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我現在把電話交給 CSX Corporation 投資人關係長 Kevin Boone 先生。

Thank you, Shirley, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me on today's call is Jim Foote, President and Chief Executive Officer; Frank Lonegro, Chief Financial Officer; and Mark Wallace, Executive Vice President of Sales and Marketing.

謝謝你，Shirley，各位下午好。今天與我一同參與電話會議的有：總裁兼執行長 Jim Foote；財務長 Frank Lonegro；以及銷售與行銷執行副總裁 Mark Wallace。

On Slide 2 is our forward-looking disclosure and followed by our non-GAAP disclosure on Slide 3.

投影片第 2 頁為我們的前瞻性聲明揭露，接著投影片第 3 頁為我們的非 GAAP 揭露。

With that, it is my pleasure to introduce President and Chief Executive Officer, Jim Foote.

接下來，我很榮幸介紹總裁兼執行長 Jim Foote。

Good afternoon, and thank you, Kevin. And thanks everyone for being on the call today. What an incredible year. I'd like to first recognize the amazing team of CSX railroaders. They have stepped up to the challenge again and again and put this company on a new trajectory. Success breeds success and I am proud of the foundation we have built.

各位下午好，謝謝你，Kevin。也感謝各位今天參與電話會議。這真是令人驚豔的一年。我首先要表揚 CSX 鐵路同仁這支了不起的團隊。他們一次又一次迎接挑戰，讓公司走上全新的發展軌道。成功帶來成功，我為我們所建立的基礎感到自豪。

While we wrote an amazing first chapter, the CSX transformation story, it's still early. Across the organization -- operations, sales and marketing, and all other functions -- there are plenty of opportunities for improvement to keep us busy for years to come. Millions of unnecessary events in our business processes can be eliminated, which will improve service to our customers and allow them to be more efficient.

雖然我們已寫下精彩的第一章——CSX 的轉型故事——但現在仍屬早期階段。在整個組織中——營運、銷售與行銷，以及所有其他職能——仍有大量改善機會，足以讓我們在未來多年持續忙碌。我們可以消除業務流程中數以百萬計不必要的事件，這將提升對客戶的服務，並讓他們更有效率。

We continue to make progress towards the efficiency goals set a little less than a year ago, whether it's locomotives, cars or yards, we are finding ways to deliver better service with fewer assets. This not only saves CSX money but saves customers money by reducing their rolling stock and other infrastructure needs. Our progress has translated to significantly more free cash flow, which allows us to maintain a safe and reliable railroad, provide the flexibility to invest in high-return projects and return significant cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

我們持續朝著不到一年前所設定的效率目標前進；無論是機車、車輛或調車場，我們都在尋找以更少資產提供更佳服務的方法。這不僅為 CSX 節省成本，也透過降低客戶的車隊與其他基礎設施需求，為客戶節省成本。我們的進展帶來顯著增加的自由現金流，使我們得以維持安全可靠的鐵路營運，並保有投資高報酬專案的彈性，同時透過股利與庫藏股回購向股東返還大量現金。

Turning to Slide 5. The results are straightforward. EPS grew 58% on an adjusted basis. Our Q4 operating ratio improved 480 basis points to 60.3%, a record fourth quarter performance. And the full year operating ratio, also 60.3%, is a U.S. Class 1 railroad record.

接著看投影片第 5 頁，結果很清楚。以調整後基礎計算，每股盈餘（EPS）成長 58%。我們第四季營業比率改善 480 個基點至 60.3%，創下第四季的紀錄表現。而全年營業比率同樣為 60.3%，創下美國一級鐵路（Class I）紀錄。

Turning to Slide 6. As you can see, there was broad-based strength across the portfolio. Revenue increased 10% with fuel recovery, volume, price and other revenue all contributing to positive growth. I'm encouraged to see the strong performance from our merchandise business with 10% overall revenue growth. Solid 4% volume growth helped drive positive performance across all markets with the exception of fertilizers.

接著看投影片第 6 頁。如各位所見，整體產品組合呈現廣泛的強勁表現。營收成長 10%，燃油回收、運量、價格及其他收入皆對正向成長有所貢獻。我很高興看到我們一般貨運（merchandise）業務表現強勁，整體營收成長 10%。穩健的 4% 運量成長帶動除化肥外各市場的正向表現。

In fertilizers, we continued to face a headwind from the previously discussed fourth quarter 2017 customer plant closure. We also saw some weakness in the fertilizer export markets, which appears transitory and should normalize in the next couple months.

在化肥方面，我們持續受到先前提及的 2017 年第四季客戶工廠關閉所帶來的逆風影響。我們也看到化肥出口市場略顯疲弱，但看來屬於短暫現象，應會在未來幾個月內恢復正常。

Intermodal revenue growth was 4% with volumes up 2%. Intermodal grew despite our previously announced rationalizations, which shows very healthy core strength. Significant progress has been made in reengineering this very important part of our business, which better positions the company for long-term profitable growth.

聯運（Intermodal）營收成長 4%，運量成長 2%。儘管我們先前已宣布進行合理化調整，聯運仍能成長，顯示核心需求非常健康。我們在重新設計這個極為重要的業務領域方面已取得顯著進展，使公司更能在長期實現具獲利性的成長。

Coal revenues increased 8% with strength in our export met business offsetting domestic utility weakness. Domestic steel and industrial customers also saw good growth. Finally, similar to previous quarters, other revenue gains were primarily driven by increases in supplemental fees.

煤炭營收成長 8%，出口冶金煤（met）業務的強勁表現抵銷了國內公用事業需求疲弱。國內鋼鐵與工業客戶也呈現良好成長。最後，與前幾季相似，其他收入的增加主要由附加費用上升所帶動。

On Slide 7, I remain focused on safety. On a year-over-year basis, we saw good progress in both FRA personal injuries and train accidents. While it is encouraging to see some progress, the numbers are far from where I expect them to be. As of January 1, our annual bonus targets include specific safety improvement targets. Safety must be a priority for every employee in this company.

在投影片第 7 頁，我仍然把安全放在首位。以年對年來看，我們在 FRA 人身傷害與列車事故兩方面都取得良好進展。雖然看到一些改善令人鼓舞，但這些數字距離我期望的水準仍有很大差距。自 1 月 1 日起，我們的年度獎金目標已納入具體的安全改善目標。安全必須是公司每一位員工的優先事項。

On Slide 8, on the efficiency and service side, train velocity saw positive year-over-year and sequential movement with dwell improved year-over-year. Only a couple weeks into 2019, I see positive momentum in both of these metrics with the company currently seeing record performance in both measures.

在投影片第 8 頁，就效率與服務而言，列車速度年對年與季對季皆呈現正向變化，停留時間（dwell）也較去年改善。2019 年才過了幾週，我就看到這兩項指標都有正向動能，公司目前在兩項衡量上都創下紀錄表現。

Cars online continued to trend down, down over 10% year-over-year, while volume increased 3%. As you'll see later, this directly translated to significantly lower car hire expense. In the periodic, we share with you different metrics which we track on a daily basis.

在線車輛數（cars online）持續下降，年對年下降超過 10%，同時運量增加 3%。如各位稍後將看到，這直接轉化為顯著降低的車輛租用費用（car hire expense）。在定期更新中，我們會與各位分享我們每日追蹤的不同指標。

On the bottom right is locomotive miles per day. This reflects the average daily mileage we're able to get out of each locomotive. Locomotives are a significant cost for the company, and by reducing your active fleet, you save on maintenance, fuel and capital requirements. Improvement in this metric means we need fewer locomotives to move the same amount of freight. Our active locomotive count ended the year down over 300 locomotives while we grew volume and revenues.

右下角是機車每日里程（locomotive miles per day）。這反映每台機車平均每天可行駛的里程數。機車是公司的一項重大成本，透過縮減在役車隊，可節省維修、燃料與資本需求。此指標的改善意味著我們用更少的機車就能運送相同的貨量。在運量與營收成長的同時，我們的在役機車數在年底較去年減少超過 300 台。

Now let me hand it off to Frank, who'll take you through the financials.

接下來我把時間交給 Frank，由他帶各位看財務表現。

Thank you, Jim, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝你，Jim，各位下午好。

Turning to Slide 10. I'll walk you through the summary income statement. As the slide shows, the impacts of tax reform, pension accounting changes and the remnants of our restructuring charges drove a significant difference between our reported and adjusted results for 2017. Big adjustments impacted several line items, and we have provided the full reconciliation of these items in the appendix to these materials as well as in our quarterly financial report. For year-over-year comparability, my comments will be focused on the variance to 2017's adjusted results.

接著看投影片第 10 頁。我將帶各位快速瀏覽損益表摘要。如投影片所示，稅改影響、退休金會計變更，以及重整費用的殘餘項目，使我們 2017 年的報表數與調整後數之間出現顯著差異。多項重大調整影響了數個科目，我們已在本資料的附錄以及季度財務報告中提供這些項目的完整調節表。為了年對年的可比性，我的評論將聚焦於相較 2017 年調整後結果的差異。

Total revenue was up 10% in the fourth quarter, driven by a 3% increase in freight volumes with particular strength in merchandise, broad-based revenue per unit gains of 7% through higher fuel recoveries, pricing gains and a favorable traffic mix together with increased other revenue. The overall pricing environment remains strong in the quarter, supported by our improved service product, healthy freight demand levels and supported export coal benchmarks.

第四季總營收成長 10%，主要由貨運運量增加 3% 所帶動，其中一般貨運表現尤為強勁；此外，透過更高的燃油回收、價格上漲與有利的貨運組合所帶來的每單位收入廣泛提升 7%，再加上其他收入增加，共同推動成長。本季整體定價環境仍然強勁，受惠於我們改善的服務產品、健康的貨運需求水準，以及出口煤炭基準價格的支撐。

Consistent with prior quarters, pricing for merchandise and intermodal contracts that renewed in the fourth quarter was particularly strong. Other revenue also increased year-over-year primarily due to increases in carload, demurrage, intermodal storage and other incidental charges. These revenues are intended to offset car hire and car ownership expenses as well as the network impacts of equipment congestion.

與前幾季一致，第四季續約的一般貨運與聯運合約定價特別強勁。其他收入亦年對年增加，主要因整車（carload）、滯期費（demurrage）、聯運倉儲以及其他雜項費用上升所致。這些收入旨在抵銷車輛租用與車輛自有成本，以及設備壅塞對路網造成的影響。

Given the STB's recent focus on accessorial and demurrage charges, we thought it was important to note that, in the quarter, only 1/3 of this line item relates to demurrage in the carload business. As we look forward, we expect the run rate for other revenue to decline slightly in 2019, excluding any liquidated damages, which we will disclose if and when they occur.

鑑於 STB 近期對附加費用與滯留費（demurrage）收費的關注，我們認為有必要指出，本季該項目中僅有 1/3 與車載（carload）業務的滯留費相關。展望未來，我們預期 2019 年其他收入的常態化水準（run rate）將小幅下降（不含任何違約金／約定損害賠償金（liquidated damages）；若其發生，我們將於發生時或發生後予以揭露）。

Moving to expenses. Total operating expenses were 2% higher in the fourth quarter. Labor and fringe expense was relatively flat year-over-year as average employee headcount was down 6% even with 3% more volume. The company is cycling a previously reported reversal of share-based compensation for our former CEO, which favorably impacted 2017's results. Additionally, in the current quarter, we recognized railroad retirement tax refunds related to share-based compensation awards from prior years given the industry's recent litigation win on this topic.

接著談費用。第四季總營運費用年增 2%。勞工與附帶福利費用（labor and fringe）年對年大致持平，因平均員工人數下降 6%，即便運量增加 3%。公司正處於先前已揭露之、針對前任執行長的股份基礎給付（share-based compensation）回轉（reversal）的比較基期循環，該回轉曾對 2017 年結果帶來正面影響。此外，在本季，鑑於產業近期在此議題的訴訟勝訴，我們就前幾年股份基礎給付獎酬相關的鐵路退休稅（railroad retirement tax）認列了退稅。

On the operating side, year-over-year improvements in velocity, on-time originations and arrivals, and trip plan compliance led to significantly fewer active trains and enabled a 10% reduction in road crew starts. Nonproductive recruits, an indicator of network fluidity, improved by 78% and have declined sequentially for 5 straight quarters. These favorable operating results drove a 12% year-over-year improvement in crew productivity, measured on a GTM per active train and engine employee basis.

在營運面，速度、準點始發與到達，以及行程計畫遵循度（trip plan compliance）的年對年改善，使得在途列車（active trains）顯著減少，並促成路線乘務開工次數（road crew starts）降低 10%。非生產性新進人員（nonproductive recruits，為網路流動性指標）改善 78%，且已連續 5 個季度呈現季對季下降。這些有利的營運成果帶動乘務生產力年增 12%，其衡量方式為每列在途列車的 GTM 以及每位機車與引擎員工（engine employee）基礎。

Shifting to labor on the mechanical side. The active locomotive count was down 10% year-over-year. We continue to have over 800 locomotives in storage in addition to the hundreds of engines we sold, scrapped or returned since the beginning of 2017. The smaller fleet, combined with lower cars online and freight car repair efficiencies, helped drive an 8% year-over-year decrease in our mechanical craft workforce. Our G&A headcount also continues to decline as we look for every opportunity to reduce our overhead costs. With respect to our total workforce, which includes management and union employees as well as contractors and consultants, we exceeded our 2018 goal of 2,000 reductions.

轉到機務（mechanical）端的人力。在用機車數（active locomotive count）年減 10%。除自 2017 年初以來我們已出售、報廢或退還的數百台引擎外，我們仍有超過 800 台機車處於封存（storage）狀態。較小的車隊規模，加上線上車輛（cars online）較少以及貨車維修效率提升，推動我們的機務技術人力（mechanical craft workforce）年減 8%。我們的 G&A（一般及行政）人數也持續下降，因我們尋找每一個降低間接成本的機會。就包含管理層與工會員工，以及承包商與顧問在內的總人力而言，我們超越了 2018 年減少 2,000 人的目標。

Looking forward to 2019, improved service and operating fluidity, together with opportunistic streamlining in our support functions, will drive a significant year-over-year labor productivity. At a high level, we would expect our total workforce to come down in line with historical attrition rates.

展望 2019 年，服務改善與營運流動性提升，加上在支援職能上的機會性精簡，將帶動勞動生產力顯著的年對年提升。整體而言，我們預期總人力將依歷史自然流失率（attrition rates）相應下降。

MS&O expense increased 3% versus the prior year. Our operations remained strong in the quarter with year-over-year service improvements driving asset efficiencies, which were favorable for MS&O expense.

MS&O 費用較去年增加 3%。本季我們的營運維持強勁，年對年服務改善帶動資產效率提升，對 MS&O 費用形成有利影響。

That said, in the quarter, we did have several noncore impacts within this line. Specifically, discontinued projects resulted in asset impairments of $20 million in the quarter, an increase of $10 million year-over-year. Additionally, there was a year-to-date reclassification in Q4 that shifted certain expense credits from MS&O into other expense lines, primarily fuel.

不過，本季在此項目中確實出現數項非核心影響。具體而言，終止的專案在本季造成 2,000 萬美元的資產減損（asset impairments），年對年增加 1,000 萬美元。此外，第四季有一項年初至今（year-to-date）的重分類，將部分費用抵減（expense credits）自 MS&O 轉至其他費用項目，主要是燃料。

Similar to recent quarters, MS&O benefited from real estate gains, which were $19 million higher than the prior year. We're continuing to monetize our surplus assets and are making good progress toward our $300 million target for cumulative real estate sales through 2020 along with a potential for upside from line sale proceeds. We continue to have a strong pipeline of real estate and line sale opportunities, though the impact of these transactions will continue to be uneven from quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year.

與近期季度類似，MS&O 受益於不動產處分利益，較去年增加 1,900 萬美元。我們持續將多餘資產變現，並在達成 2020 年前累計不動產銷售 3 億美元目標方面取得良好進展，同時線路出售收益亦可能帶來上行空間。我們仍有強勁的不動產與線路出售機會管線（pipeline），但這些交易的影響將在季度間與年度間持續呈現不均衡。

Looking at other expense items. Depreciation increased due to the impact of a larger net asset base. Fuel expense was up 4% year-over-year, driven primarily by a 10% increase in the per-gallon price, partially offset by improved efficiency. Specifically, we utilized 1.6 million fewer gallons, even with slightly higher GTMs, driving favorable fuel efficiency savings. We will drive further fuel efficiency through continued improvement in network fluidity and the increased utilization of fuel optimization processes and technologies.

再看其他費用項目。折舊因淨資產基礎擴大而增加。燃料費用年增 4%，主要由每加侖價格上漲 10% 所致，部分被效率提升所抵銷。具體而言，即便 GTM 略有增加，我們仍少用 160 萬加侖，帶來有利的燃料效率節省。我們將透過持續改善網路流動性，以及提高燃料最佳化流程與技術的使用，進一步提升燃料效率。

Equipment rents expense decreased 20%, driven by significantly improved car cycle times, particularly in the merchandise and automotive segments as we continued to see strong year-over-year and sequential service improvements. Equity earnings decreased $13 million in the quarter as we are cycling a $16 million nonrecurring gain recognized in the prior year by one of the company's equity affiliates.

設備租賃費用（equipment rents）下降 20%，係因車輛周轉時間（car cycle times）顯著改善所致，尤其在一般貨運（merchandise）與汽車（automotive）板塊；隨著我們持續看到強勁的年對年與季對季服務改善。權益法收益（equity earnings）本季減少 1,300 萬美元，因我們正處於比較基期循環：公司某一權益法投資關聯企業於去年認列的 1,600 萬美元一次性（nonrecurring）利益。

Looking below the line. Interest expense increased primarily due to the additional debt we issued this year, partially offset by a lower weighted average coupon rate. Tax expense was lower in the quarter, even with significantly better pretax earnings, reflecting the continued benefit of tax reform. Our effective tax rate was 23.2% in the quarter, slightly lower than prior guidance mainly due to the settling of certain state tax matters.

看損益表線下項目（below the line）。利息費用增加，主要因今年新增發行的債務，部分被較低的加權平均票面利率（weighted average coupon rate）所抵銷。本季稅費較低，即便稅前盈餘顯著改善，反映稅改效益持續顯現。本季有效稅率為 23.2%，較先前指引略低，主要因若干州稅事項結案（settling）所致。

Absent unique items, we expect our effective rate to be between 24% and 24.5% for 2019 with Q1 closer to 23.5% due to the timing of stock-based compensation payouts. As discussed at our investor conference, we also expect our cash tax rate to be up slightly, given the rolloff of bonus depreciation over time.

若不計特殊項目，我們預期 2019 年有效稅率介於 24% 至 24.5%，其中第一季因股票基礎給付（stock-based compensation）發放時點因素，將較接近 23.5%。如同我們在投資人會議所討論的，我們也預期現金稅率（cash tax rate）將小幅上升，因加速折舊（bonus depreciation）效益將隨時間逐步消退（rolloff）。

Closing out the P&L. As Jim highlighted in his opening remarks, CSX delivered operating income of nearly $1 billion, fourth quarter record operating ratio of 60.3% and earnings per share of $1.01, representing improvements of 25%, 480 basis points and 58%, respectively, year-over-year.

最後總結損益表。如 Jim 在開場致詞中所強調，CSX 營業利益接近 10 億美元，第四季創紀錄的營運比率（operating ratio）為 60.3%，每股盈餘為 1.01 美元，分別年對年改善 25%、480 個基點與 58%。

Turning to the cash side of the equation on Slide 11. Adjusted operating cash flow was nearly $4.7 billion in 2018, an increase of over $1 billion or 29% year-over-year, illustrating the strength of the company's core cash-generation capabilities, together with the benefits of tax reform. Capital investments were down 14% or nearly $300 million, reflecting the reduced capital intensity of the scheduled railroading model. This reduction in capital intensity, combined with the substantial progress this year in CSX' core operating cash flow generation, drove an 88% increase in full year adjusted free cash flow.

接著看第 11 頁投影片的現金面。2018 年調整後營運現金流接近 47 億美元，年增逾 10 億美元或 29%，展現公司核心現金創造能力的強勁，以及稅改帶來的效益。資本投資下降 14% 或近 3 億美元，反映排程式鐵路營運模式（scheduled railroading model）的資本密集度降低。資本密集度的下降，加上今年 CSX 核心營運現金流創造的重大進展，推動全年調整後自由現金流增加 88%。

Importantly, the company converted net income to free cash flow at essentially 100% in 2018. In 2019, we expect the combined impact of revenue growth, expense control and disciplined capital investments to deliver a high free cash flow conversion rate. This significant improvement in free cash flow generation, supplemented by a strong balance sheet help support substantial shareholder returns of over $5.4 billion. We executed nearly $1.9 billion of share repurchases in the fourth quarter and earlier this week, fully completed the prior $5 billion buyback authority.

重要的是，公司在 2018 年將淨利轉換為自由現金流的比率基本上達到 100%。2019 年，我們預期營收成長、費用控管與紀律性的資本投資之綜合影響，將帶來高自由現金流轉換率。自由現金流創造的顯著改善，加上強健的資產負債表作為支撐，有助於支持超過 54 億美元的可觀股東回饋。我們在第四季執行了近 19 億美元的庫藏股回購，並於本週稍早完全完成先前 50 億美元的回購授權額度。

With that, let me turn it back to Jim for his closing remarks.

那麼，我把時間交還給 Jim，請他做結語。

Great. Thanks so much, Frank. Turning to Slide 13 with a few comments about 2019.

很好。非常感謝你，Frank。接著看第 13 頁投影片，我對 2019 年做幾點說明。

But before I talk specifically about revenue, I'd like to provide some color on what we are seeing from a high level. Over the past few days, I've spoken to a number of large customers across different industries. General customer feedback has been positive and is consistent with the demand levels we are seeing today. While it's hard to ignore the volatility in the equity markets, I cannot call out any trend in our business today that would point to a significant slowdown in our business.

但在我具體談營收之前，我想先從較高層次補充一些我們所觀察到的情況。過去幾天，我與不同行業的多位大型客戶交流。客戶整體回饋正面，且與我們目前看到的需求水準一致。雖然股市波動不容忽視，但就我們目前的業務而言，我看不出任何趨勢顯示我們的業務將出現顯著放緩。

Talking about this year. Driven by merchandise strength, I expect total revenues to be up low single digits in 2019. This reflects muted overall intermodal growth impacted by the rationalization of intermodal lanes we have talked about. Normalized intermodal growth should return in 2020. As for coal, similar to our view coming into 2018, we expect some moderation of export coal benchmark prices in the back half of the year but remaining at very healthy levels. As to the 2019 operating ratio, our goal is to maintain our position as the best in service and efficiency.

談到今年。在商品運輸強勁帶動下，我預期 2019 年總營收將呈現低個位數成長。這反映出整體聯運成長偏溫和，受到我們先前提到的聯運路線精簡（rationalization）影響。聯運的常態化成長應會在 2020 年回歸。至於煤炭，與我們進入 2018 年時的看法類似，我們預期今年下半年出口煤基準價格會有所降溫，但仍將維持在非常健康的水準。至於 2019 年的營運比率（OR），我們的目標是維持我們在服務與效率方面的最佳地位。

If you look at where we finished 2018 at 60.3%, we clearly did better in a number of areas, including real estate and line sales. I believe a good 2018 OR baseline to measure our improvement in 2019 is closer to 61%, which adjusts for some of the better-than-expected benefits from real estate that occurred in 2018.

如果你看我們 2018 年以 60.3% 作結，我們在多個領域確實表現更好，包括不動產與路線銷售。我認為，用來衡量我們 2019 年改善幅度的 2018 年 OR 基準，較合理的是接近 61%，因為這已將 2018 年不動產帶來的部分超預期效益做了調整。

I now expect CSX to outperform our previous 2020 target of 60% a full year early. This represents continued efficiency gains across our operations while leveraging the revenue growth from Mark and his team.

我現在預期 CSX 將提前一年、在 2019 年就超越我們先前設定的 2020 年 60% 目標。這代表我們在營運各環節持續提升效率，同時也運用 Mark 與其團隊帶來的營收成長。

At the Investor Day last March, we guided for $8.5 billion in cumulative free cash flow over 3 years, including 2018 through 2020. I'm happy to report we're trending ahead of that guidance. As part of our free cash flow outlook, we expect CapEx to be between $1.6 billion and $1.7 billion in 2019.

在去年 3 月的投資人日，我們指引 3 年（包含 2018 至 2020 年）累計自由現金流為 85 億美元。我很高興地報告，我們目前的進度優於該指引。在我們的自由現金流展望中，預期 2019 年資本支出（CapEx）將介於 16 億至 17 億美元。

Finally, as you saw in the press release, we have announced a new $5 billion share repurchase authorization. As Frank said, we completed the existing $5 billion share buyback earlier than was expected. As part of our annual process, we'll be reviewing with the board our long-term outlook for the business and discussing uses of cash and capital structure, which will determine the pace at which we complete the newly authorized share buyback program. The board's review process will take into consideration economic conditions and the company's performance against its targets as well as the current stock price to optimize long-term value for the company's shareholders.

最後，如同你在新聞稿中所見，我們已宣布新的 50 億美元庫藏股回購授權。如 Frank 所說，我們比預期更早完成既有的 50 億美元股票回購。依照我們的年度流程，我們將與董事會檢視公司長期業務展望，並討論現金用途與資本結構，這些將決定我們完成新核准回購計畫的速度。董事會的檢視流程將把經濟情勢、公司相對於目標的績效，以及目前股價納入考量，以為公司股東最佳化長期價值。

You really have to love being in the rail industry right now, so many exciting things happening. I couldn't be more proud of what we were able to achieve in 2018. It means a lot to the employees who work at CSX to be considered winners. It's great to see our mechanical employees who keep the fleet in great shape, our engineering people that build and maintain the network, and the T&E folks that get our customers' products where they need to be having this kind of success. But it does not get any easier from here. The bar is higher, and it's our job to deliver.

現在身處鐵路產業真的令人振奮，有太多令人興奮的事情正在發生。我對我們在 2018 年所達成的成果感到無比自豪。對在 CSX 工作的員工而言，被視為贏家意義重大。很高興看到讓車隊保持良好狀態的機務同仁、建設並維護路網的工程團隊，以及讓客戶產品準時送達目的地的運輸與乘務（T&E）同仁，能取得這樣的成功。但從現在開始不會更容易。標準更高了，而交出成果是我們的責任。

With that said, we have a team that is capable of making CSX the best-run railroad in North America. Thank you. Kevin?

話雖如此，我們擁有一支有能力讓 CSX 成為北美營運最出色鐵路公司的團隊。謝謝。Kevin？

Thank you, Jim. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你，Jim。（接線員指示）

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 UBS 的 Tom Wadewitz。

I wanted to ask you a little bit about the operating metrics and how you think they would translate to cost side performance in 2019? It seems like you have obviously put up a lot of improvement in the metrics. It sounds, Jim, like from your comments, you would expect that to continue. I'm thinking the metrics we see, maybe some we don't but velocity, dwell and so forth. Do you think that translates to further cost-side improvement in '19? Is that the right way to look at it? And then, maybe I have a follow-on on the OR as well.

我想請教一下營運指標，以及你認為這些指標在 2019 年會如何反映到成本端的表現？看起來你們的指標顯然已經有很大的改善。從你的評論聽起來，Jim，你預期這種改善會持續。我想到我們看到的一些指標，也許有些我們看不到，但像是速度、停留時間（dwell）等等。你認為這會轉化為 2019 年成本端的進一步改善嗎？這樣理解對嗎？另外，我可能也想追問一下 OR。

Sure, Tom. Yes, I mean, we're going to continue to grind and make improvement and improve velocity. We're still a long ways to go there to become consistently best in class. And dwell continues to improve as we drive those 2 factors that will improve our performance for our customers as well with trip plan compliance numbers increasing all the time. So it's the same metrics that we have used in the past, and they will definitely continue to get better.

當然可以，Tom。是的，我們會持續精進、持續改善並提升速度。要穩定成為同業最佳（best in class），我們還有很長的路要走。而隨著我們推動這兩個因素，停留時間也持續改善，這也會提升我們對客戶的表現，同時行程計畫遵循（trip plan compliance）的數字也一直在提高。所以，這些都是我們過去使用的同樣指標，而且它們肯定會持續變得更好。

Okay. Great. So it sounds like there should be a translation of the cost side as well. You mentioned kind of an adjustment that you would think of on the base that we look at, like more of a 61% OR for '18 kind of adjusted. Can you give a little more perspective of what you're adjusting out? Is that just -- is that primarily land sales? Are you thinking your land sale gains -- are you thinking you won't have those gains? Or how do we think about...?

好的。很好。所以聽起來成本端也應該會有所反映。你提到對我們觀察的基準做一些調整，例如把 2018 年的 OR 基準視為調整後更接近 61%。你能再多說一點你調整掉的是什麼嗎？那只是——主要是土地出售嗎？你是認為土地出售的收益——你是認為不會再有那些收益嗎？或者我們該怎麼看待……？

No, there's no time -- we overachieved in that area. And what I'm saying is if you're going to take that overachievement and kind of normalize it and say, okay, in order to move forward and say that we're going to do better than 60%, what's the good starting point? It's kind of foolish to say we're at 60.3% and say we're going to do better than 60%. So if you take out these real estate sales that were higher than what we had originally expected when we set our goal of 60%, and remember, again, in 2020, for us to go forward into '19 and to say we're going to beat that 60% 2020 target in '19, I'm just trying to put it in context for everyone that we're really -- we believe we're really starting it at around 61%.

不，沒有——我們在那個領域做得超出預期。我的意思是，如果你把那個超預期的部分拿出來做常態化，然後說，好，為了往前看並說我們會做得比 60% 更好，那合理的起點是什麼？如果我們是 60.3%，卻說我們要做得比 60% 更好，這樣說其實有點不切實際。所以，如果把這些不動產出售（real estate sales）中高於我們在設定 60% 目標時原先預期的部分扣除，並且再提醒一次，我們當時是以 2020 年達到 60% 為目標；那麼對我們在 2019 年往前看、並說我們會在 2019 年就超越 2020 年 60% 目標，我只是想讓大家理解其脈絡：我們認為合理的起點大約是在 61%。

Okay. So it's primarily around how we think about real estate sales. That's primarily what you're saying?

好的。所以主要是圍繞我們如何看待不動產出售。你主要是在說這個，對嗎？

Yes. I think we had a number of $300 million, and we're ahead of trend on that. That doesn't mean we're going to do more than $300 million over the 3 years. It just means that we did better than that in '19. And so taking that into consideration as we look at where -- again, 9 months ago, when we said -- when we rolled this out, everybody felt we were insane people for thinking that we could get a 60% operating ratio in 3 years. We're just trying to put it in context to show that we're going to do better than that, and we're going to do better than that in a shorter time frame.

是的。我想我們當時有一個3億美元的數字，而我們目前的進度領先於趨勢。這並不代表我們在3年內會做超過3億美元。這只是表示我們在2019年做得比那個目標更好。因此，把這點納入考量，當我們回頭看——再說一次，9個月前，當我們說——當我們推出這個計畫時，大家都覺得我們瘋了，竟然認為3年內可以做到60%的營運比率。我們只是想把它放在脈絡中，說明我們會做得比那更好，而且會在更短的時間內做得更好。

Our next question comes from Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的Amit Mehrotra。

So Jim, I was just hoping if you could help us parse out the company's, I guess, prospective margin improvement between the volume growth that you're expecting and the significant cost opportunity that you talked about. Clearly, the outlook for volumes is a bit more uncertain than where it stands today, even outside export coal in the back half. So -- but also the cost opportunity is significant. So if you could just help us think about the net impact of those 2 in terms of the OR guidance that you put out in 2019. How much of that is really in your control? And how much of that is now dependent on sort of the macro environment and volume environment?

Jim，我只是希望你能幫我們釐清一下，公司在你們預期的運量成長，以及你提到的顯著成本機會之間，未來的利潤率改善大概會如何展開。很明顯地，運量的展望比起目前的狀況更不確定，即使不考慮下半年出口煤也是如此。不過——同時成本機會也很可觀。所以如果你能幫我們思考一下，這兩者對你們在2019年提出的營運比率（OR）指引，淨影響會是什麼。其中有多少是真正在你們掌控之內？又有多少現在取決於總體環境與運量環境？

Well, I think, we need to -- as we have always said, we need to have a top line growth as we move forward that our plan here is not to just merely reduce costs in order to grow the company's financial performance. So it's always been a balance as we have looked at this. That being said, as I talked earlier on the cost side, we believe that we have a lot of opportunity out there for us to continue to improve the efficiency of the network. And we continue to do that through many of the same practices that we've already put into place, whether it's running trains with distributed power; using other technology to reduce our fuel costs; eliminating more and more and more unnecessary touches; the way we handle our customers' products, which improves throughput and improves fluidity. So it's many of those same initiatives that will drive costs further out of the company. At the same time, we're constantly focused on the top line growth, both in terms of volume and price. We have, again, starting 2018, let's take a -- just a high-level view of the various business segments, we started the year with intermodal, which is a "growth engine of the railroad industry." And for a lot of reasons, as I said quite a few times, we had to reengineer that business, which meant we took 7% volume off the railroad. Well, we came out of the year, and it was 2% up. So 2% plus 7% means we're currently at about 9%, okay. So I would say, under the circumstances, are pretty good. To a large degree, coal has been an issue for CSX for a while. And we recognize that the domestic side of the business would be relatively stable in terms of volumes, which it was. And we had kind of anticipated, along with everybody else in the universe at trying to guess what's going to happen with coal, that these benchmarks for both export met and steam coal would probably not stay at their high levels for the full 12 months. But they did so, basically, the very last few weeks of December. So that gave us a little bit of a better -- gave us a boost there on the revenue as well, which we are saying right now, the benchmarks are still high. The optimism right now is still strong for coal. And -- but nobody is saying that these price levels are locked in for sure. So it's prudent for us to say it'll probably decline somewhat but still be good in the second half of the year. And then we get over to the merchandise side of the business. The merchandise side of the business is the area that most benefits from the change in the operating model from the old way of looking at things and running trains and forgetting where your customers' cars were half the time on the railroad. So as we have implemented scheduled railroading and have improved the quality of our service, we are expecting to -- first time in a long time here at CSX, we're going to turn around this merchandise business segment, which is 66% of the business, and start to grow it. And we're already seeing some of the business that, for a long time, went away. It went to truck because we didn't have a service product that met our customer needs. So as we have done that, we fully expect to see volume growth across all of the business segments in merchandise, which is the key part of this company, the heart of this company. And we're making it -- service product fantastic. And it is something that numerous recent reports have highlighted from a customer base that they are very excited about the new attitude, the new way we do business and the service product that we offer. Mark, do you want to add anything else?

嗯，我想我們需要——正如我們一直說的，往前走我們需要營收端成長；我們的計畫並不是只靠降低成本來提升公司的財務表現。所以我們在看這件事時一直都是在做平衡。話雖如此，就成本面我先前提到的，我們相信我們仍有很多機會可以持續提升網路效率。而我們也會透過許多已經導入的相同做法持續推進，無論是以分散式動力（distributed power）方式運行列車；運用其他技術降低燃料成本；消除越來越多不必要的接觸點；以及我們處理客戶貨品的方式，這些都能提升吞吐量並改善流暢度。因此，正是許多相同的倡議，將進一步把成本從公司中移除。同時，我們也持續聚焦於營收端成長，包含運量與價格兩方面。我們再次從2018年開始，先用高層次角度看各個業務區塊：我們以聯運（intermodal）開局，這是「鐵路產業的成長引擎」。但基於許多原因，正如我多次提到的，我們必須重新設計這項業務，這意味著我們讓鐵路上的運量減少了7%。然而我們年底的結果是成長2%。所以2%加上7%表示我們目前大約在9%，好嗎。所以我會說，在這樣的情況下，表現相當不錯。在很大程度上，煤炭一直是CSX一段時間以來的問題。我們也認知到，國內業務在運量方面會相對穩定，而事實也是如此。而我們也大致預期——和所有人一樣，在試著猜煤炭會怎麼走——出口冶金煤（export met）與動力煤（steam coal）的這些基準價格，可能不會在整整12個月都維持在高檔。但它們基本上一直維持到12月最後幾週。因此那也讓我們的營收稍微更好——也帶來一點提振；而我們現在的說法是，這些基準價格仍然偏高。目前對煤炭的樂觀情緒仍然很強。但是——沒有人會說這些價格水準一定就被鎖定了。所以我們審慎地認為，它可能會有所下滑，但在下半年仍會維持不錯。接著來到商品貨運（merchandise）業務。商品貨運是最能受益於營運模式改變的領域：從過去那種看事情、跑列車的舊方式——而且有一半時間你都不知道客戶的車皮在鐵路上的哪裡。因此，隨著我們導入定期化鐵路營運（scheduled railroading）並提升服務品質，我們預期——在CSX很長一段時間以來第一次——我們將扭轉這個占業務66%的商品貨運區塊，並開始讓它成長。而我們已經看到一些長期流失的業務回來了。它們轉去卡車，是因為我們沒有能滿足客戶需求的服務產品。所以在我們做到這些之後，我們完全預期商品貨運各個業務區塊都會出現運量成長；這是這家公司最關鍵的部分，是這家公司的核心。而我們正在把——服務產品做得非常出色。而且近期有許多報告都指出，從客戶端來看，他們對於新的態度、新的做生意方式以及我們提供的服務產品感到非常振奮。Mark，你還想補充什麼嗎？

(inaudible) Ditto.

(聽不清楚) 同意。

Okay. Let me just ask one very quick follow-up, if I could. Jim, you talk about the best-run railroad in North America. I just want to understand what that actually means. Does that translate to the best operating ratio in North America that the company has the best service levels in North America? And then, if you could just tie that into kind of the 2020 target because it doesn't seem that, that has changed unless I'm reading too much into the language. Doesn't seem the 2020 target has changed. Is that just too far out for you right now? Or is there something where you're thinking 60% is really kind of the high watermark for the network?

好的。如果可以的話，我再追問一個很快的問題。Jim，你提到北美營運最好的鐵路公司。我想了解那實際上代表什麼。那是否等同於北美最佳的營運比率，或是公司在北美擁有最佳的服務水準？另外，如果你能把這點和2020年的目標連結起來，因為除非我對措辭解讀過度，否則看起來那並沒有改變。看起來2020年的目標沒有改變。是因為對你來說現在還太遠嗎？或者你認為60%其實就是這個網路的某種高水位（上限）？

Okay. Well, yes, first of all, as I said, what does the best-run railroad in North America mean? First and foremost, the safest; second, providing the best service possible to the customers and the best service recognized by the customer base as being head -- and above everybody else in the industry and doing that in the most efficient manner. In the most efficient manner, one could look at, one way to measure that, and the way that it's commonly measured is by looking at the company's operating ratio. As I said and as we said in our press release, we had a 60.3% operating ratio this year. That is the best ever in the history of a North American railroad. We are ahead of the CN and the CP, who have been at this for 15 or 20 years, and we are ahead of these guys, and we plan to stay ahead of those guys. We had an operating ratio that was going to be 60% in 2 years from now. What we're saying is we're going to have an operating ratio that is better than 60% this year. So it's not the same. Not at all. It is a dramatic and significant improvement in our efficiency and performance a full year ahead of where we said we were going to be. And as I said, when we said it 9 months ago in New York, everybody said we were crazy, can't be done.

好的。嗯，是的，首先，如我所說，「北美營運最好的鐵路」是什麼意思？首要是最安全；其次，是以最高水準為客戶提供最佳服務，而且這種最佳服務要被客戶群認可為在業界中名列前茅、勝過所有同業，並且以最有效率的方式做到。所謂最有效率的方式，其中一種衡量方法，也是常見的衡量方式，就是看公司的營運比率（operating ratio）。如我所說、也如我們在新聞稿中所說，我們今年的營運比率是60.3%。這是北美鐵路史上最佳紀錄。我們領先CN與CP；他們在這方面已經做了15到20年，而我們仍然領先他們，而且我們打算持續領先。我們原本預期兩年後營運比率會到60%。而我們現在說的是：我們今年的營運比率就會優於60%。所以這不一樣。完全不一樣。這代表我們的效率與績效出現了戲劇性且重大的改善，比我們所說的目標整整提前了一年達成。而且如我所說，9個月前我們在紐約講這件事時，大家都說我們瘋了，做不到。

Next question comes from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

下一個問題來自Barclays的Brandon Oglenski。

I guess, following along that line of questioning, Jim or Mark, can you talk more about the lane rationalization that you've had on the intermodal business? I think you highlighted it a little bit last quarter that it was about optimizing with some of your interchange partners from the West. So maybe if you could elaborate on that and how much, again, headwind that could represent in 2019?

我想延續剛才那條提問脈絡，Jim或Mark，你們能否多談談你們在聯運（intermodal）業務上做的路線精簡／合理化（lane rationalization）？我記得你們上季稍微提到，這大概是與一些來自西部的轉運／交接（interchange）合作夥伴一起做最佳化。所以也許你們可以再多說一些，以及這在2019年可能會帶來多大的逆風？

Sure. So let me just repeat briefly so everyone understands what we did in 2017. As Jim just mentioned, at the end of the year 2017, when we began this journey of fixing our intermodal business and getting away from what we felt was a broken hub-and-spoke model, the impacts to those changes that we made then had an impact of about 7% of our intermodal business. As Jim just said, we grew -- despite that, we grew our intermodal volumes last year 2%. In July -- or sorry, in middle last year, as we continued working through a lot of the changes that we made over the course of the year, we decided to do another round of rationalizations, changes that impacted as of October 1 another 3% of the business, those took -- and we announced as well other changes that took effect this year on January 3, impacting roughly another 5%. And as Jim just said, for 2019, we think we're going to be flattish to hopefully slightly up for the year, so -- on volumes. We've been going through this for some time now. You've probably seen some reports from some of our customers who actually agree with what we're trying to achieve. Clearly, we're competing in the lanes that we think we can do a better job of serving them. We're doing really well. We had a great peak season this past fall and into Christmas, and we're doing so at lower cost. We got away from, as I said, the traditional hub and spoke. And so the switching and the lifting and all the crazy stuff that we've been doing previously that were driving down the profitability of that business segment is improving substantially. And we're not done. We've still got a ways to go, but we're pleased with the progress that we've made so far in that area.

當然。我先簡要重述一下，讓大家了解我們在2017年做了什麼。如Jim剛才提到的，2017年底，當我們開始著手修復聯運業務、並且擺脫我們認為已失靈的樞紐—輻射（hub-and-spoke）模式時，我們當時所做變更的影響約占我們聯運業務的7%。如Jim剛才所說，儘管如此，我們去年聯運量仍成長了2%。到了7月——抱歉，是去年年中，隨著我們持續推進並消化一年來做的許多變更，我們決定再做一輪精簡／合理化；其中一部分自10月1日起生效，影響另外約3%的業務；同時我們也宣布了其他變更，於今年1月3日生效，約再影響另外5%。而如Jim剛才所說，對2019年而言，我們認為全年量會大致持平，並希望能略有成長——就運量而言。我們推進這件事已經有一段時間了。你們可能也看過一些來自客戶的報導，他們其實認同我們想達成的目標。很明顯地，我們會在我們認為能提供更好服務的路線上競爭。我們做得非常好。去年秋季到聖誕節期間，我們旺季表現很出色，而且成本更低。如我所說，我們已經擺脫傳統的樞紐—輻射模式。因此，過去那些轉線（switching）、吊裝（lifting）以及各種瘋狂操作，曾經拉低該業務區塊獲利能力的因素，正在大幅改善。而我們還沒做完。我們還有一段路要走，但對目前在這方面取得的進展感到滿意。

Okay. And if I can just sneak one in here. I think Frank mentioned that you'd expect headcount would be done with natural attrition this year. So can you put some context around that for us?

好的。如果我可以再追問一個。我想Frank提到，你們預期今年的人力編制會透過自然流失（natural attrition）來完成調整。那你能否為我們提供一些背景脈絡？

Yes. So a couple things on that one. Better service, obviously, requires less folks to run the railroad. Less assets come from better service, less people to maintain those assets. And then, certainly, on the G&A side, as we have attrition opportunities, we'll take those -- as you think about our historical attrition levels, be thinking about kind of 6% to 7% from a total workforce perspective.

可以。這點有幾個面向。更好的服務，顯然需要更少的人來營運鐵路。更好的服務也意味著需要更少的資產，而資產更少就需要更少的人去維護這些資產。另外，在G&A（一般及行政）端，當出現自然流失的機會時，我們就會把握——以我們過去的自然流失水準來看，從整體員工數角度，大約是6%到7%。

Next question comes from Chris Wetherbee with Citigroup.

下一個問題來自Citigroup的Chris Wetherbee。

I wanted to come back to the OR for a second. So just wanted to get a sense if you're going to exceed the 2020 target in 2019? What do you think the potential of the business is as you look out a little beyond '19, say, 2020 or 2021?

我想再回到營運比率（OR）這個話題一下。我想了解的是：你們是否會在2019年就超越2020年的目標？當你們把視野放到2019年之後，例如2020或2021年，你們認為這項業務的潛力可能到什麼程度？

I think that in terms of the specific place where the operating ratio should be as we move into the future, whether it's a year, whether it's 5 years from now, wherever it is, we will find the right spot where that operating ratio should be that allows us to provide the most efficient, highest quality of service but grow the business at the optimal levels. So there isn't a magic -- a point where you say, oh, this is certainly where I'm trying to get to. We're trying to put the 3 elements there of service, efficiency and growth together and find the optimum spot. And we will start to search for that in the beginning -- in the future. At the same time, I can tell you that, at least in my opinion, you always want to be the most efficient in the marketplace. So that has -- no matter what the line of business you're in, no matter what you're making, no matter what you're selling, normally, if you're doing it the best, you're going to be the most successful. So that's my #1 reason for wanting to continue to drive on continuous improvement and continue to make all these changes because it continues to make us the best in the marketplace and the best in the industry. And I think that should be a goal of any organization.

我認為，就營運比率在未來應該落在什麼具體水準而言，不論是一年後、五年後，或任何時間點，我們都會找到那個合適的位置：既能讓我們以最高效率、最高品質提供服務，同時又能以最適當的水準成長業務。所以並不存在一個神奇的——某個點讓你說，喔，這肯定就是我想達到的目標。我們要做的是把服務、效率與成長這三個要素放在一起，找出最佳平衡點。而我們會在未來開始尋找那個最佳點。同時，我可以告訴你，至少以我個人的看法，你永遠都希望自己是市場上效率最高的那一個。所以——不管你在哪個產業、不管你在製造什麼、不管你在賣什麼，通常如果你做得最好，你就會最成功。因此，這是我想持續推動持續改善、並持續推進所有這些變革的第一個原因，因為這會讓我們持續成為市場上、以及產業中最好的。我認為這應該是任何組織的目標。

Okay. That's fair. That's helpful. And I just want to touch on the intermodal sort of outlook. Wanted to get -- make sure I'm clear on what you guys think volumes might be in 2019. It sounds like maybe down or flattish a little bit in that segment. And then, where are you in that sort of process? You've done some of the rationalization of OD pairs, but I'm just kind of curious how you think about how much more wood there is to chop on the intermodal segment specifically?

好的。這很合理。這很有幫助。我也想稍微談一下聯運的展望。我想確認——確保我清楚你們對2019年運量的看法。聽起來在那個業務區塊可能會小幅下滑或大致持平。另外，你們在這個流程中目前進展到哪一步？你們已經做了一些起訖點（OD pairs）的精簡／合理化，但我想了解的是，就聯運這個區塊而言，你們認為還有多少工作要做、還有多少可以再改善的空間？

Yes, I mean, as I just said a couple minutes ago, I think we're -- we just announced another -- another round of rationalizations took effect on January 3 this year. Those are, obviously, our customer -- working with our customers as they work through all those. I don't foresee -- I don't anticipate any other significant announcements in intermodal changes anytime soon. I hope we don't have to do anymore. I think we're getting the network down to a manageable area where we can really focus on the lanes, where we can really compete and deliver superior service. So we're focused on that. We're driving hard. As I just said, yes, we're going to overcome the loss of the rationalizations as we did in 2018, hopefully, in 2019 as well. And so yes, I'd be disappointed if our volumes were down. And I'm looking -- and I'm pushing that we make that up and maybe do a little bit better.

是的，我的意思是，正如我幾分鐘前剛說的，我認為我們——我們剛宣布了另一——另一輪精簡措施，並已於今年1月3日生效。很明顯，這些是我們與客戶——在客戶消化並處理這些變動的過程中與他們合作。我不預見——我不預期在短期內還會有任何其他重大的聯運變更公告。我希望我們不必再做更多。我認為我們正把網路縮減到一個可管理的範圍，讓我們能真正聚焦於各條運輸走廊（lanes），在那裡我們可以真正競爭並提供更優質的服務。所以我們專注於此。我們正全力推進。如我剛才所說，是的，我們將像2018年那樣克服精簡措施帶來的流失，希望2019年也能如此。因此，是的，如果我們的運量下降，我會感到失望。而我正在——我也在推動我們把缺口補回來，甚至做得更好一些。

Next question comes from Allison Landry with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）的Allison Landry。

So obviously, you guys did a really good job on the service metrics overall. But I was a little surprised to see the on-time arrivals tick down sequentially. I think that's a pretty important metric that you focus on. So is there something specific during the quarter that drove that? Or is that where you thought it would be? And what has to happen for that to improve to the point where you can create the slots for intermodal and drive incremental volume growth?

很明顯，你們在整體服務指標方面做得非常好。但我有點驚訝看到準點到達率（on-time arrivals）按季下滑。我認為那是你們非常重視的一個重要指標。所以，這一季是否有什麼特定因素導致它下滑？還是說這就是你們原本預期的水準？以及要讓它改善到你們能為聯運創造更多時段（slots）並帶動額外運量成長，需要發生什麼？

Allison, yes, we were clearly disappointed with that metric during the quarter and worked extremely hard on that. Full originations, on time and arrivals, were clearly not where they need to be. How do you get them better? You execute. The train is supposed to depart on schedule so that it can arrive in the next terminal so that the assets and the crew and everything are balanced as we run around our network. It needs to get out of the terminal on time. And then, there can't be an event en route that causes it to experience a delay so that it doesn't arrive in the destination terminal where it needs to on time. And so it's just execution. It's constantly looking at all of the root causes of what caused the failure en route. So is it a mechanical issue? Do we need to -- are we focusing on what causes the engines to fail? Are there systemic issues that cause the locomotives to fail, which causes the train not to get across the railroad? Are there mechanical issues? Are there engineering issues that we need to address? Are there crew balancing issues that we need to address? So it is all of those various elements and the way you run the railroad that you need to focus on in order to get those numbers up. I can tell you that the on-time origins and arrivals in our most recent numbers have been -- I certainly hope that we can maintain this and don't get whacked with a bunch of crazy snowstorms, but are significantly better than where they were in the fourth quarter.

Allison，是的，我們在本季對這個指標明顯感到失望，並為此付出了極大的努力。完整的準點始發（on time originations）與準點到達，顯然都沒有達到應有水準。要怎麼把它們做得更好？就是執行。列車應該按時從車站發車，才能按時抵達下一個場站，讓資產、乘務組以及所有資源在我們的網路運行中保持平衡。它必須準時離開場站。然後，途中不能發生導致延誤的事件，否則就無法準時抵達目的地場站。所以這就是執行力。就是持續檢視所有造成途中失敗的根本原因。所以，是機械問題嗎？我們是否需要——我們是否正聚焦於造成引擎故障的原因？是否存在導致機車系統性故障的問題，進而使列車無法順利通過整條鐵路線？是否有機械問題？是否有需要處理的工程問題？是否有需要解決的乘務組配置平衡問題？所以，這些各種要素，以及你如何運營鐵路，都需要聚焦，才能把這些數字拉上來。我可以告訴你，我們最近的數據顯示，準點始發與準點到達——我當然希望我們能維持下去，也不要被一堆瘋狂暴風雪打亂——已經顯著優於第四季的水準。

Okay. And if I think about that improving all the things that you talked about, is that what we should be watching in terms of a metric to sort of think about, okay, this is maybe the point where the intermodal business can start to see incremental volume growth from maybe the guidance that you guys talked about?

好的。如果我把你剛才提到的那些改善項目都納入考量，這是否就是我們應該關注的一個指標，用來判斷：好，這可能就是聯運業務能開始看到額外運量成長、超出你們所談到的指引的那個時間點？

Well, yes. Let me -- I'll let Mark add on to this but again, incremental volume growth in the intermodal business, when we take 7% of the volume off the railroad intentionally every year because we shouldn't be doing that kind of work in order to fix the company and we grow 2% or we come in and maybe this year flat to slightly up and now -- we're growing the business here at 7%, 8%, 9% a year in intermodal, so that's a good environment for us to be trying to reverse and improve the overall core product of the intermodal business. We are not just driving off bad business for the -- just to get rid of bad business, we are fixing and improving the intermodal franchise and the intermodal network under CSX so that it can grow and grow and grow profitably consistently in the future. Mark?

嗯，是的。讓我——我會讓Mark補充，但再說一次，聯運業務的額外運量成長：當我們每年刻意把7%的運量從鐵路上移除，因為我們不應該做那種業務，這是為了修復公司；而我們成長2%，或者今年可能持平到小幅成長；而現在——聯運市場每年成長7%、8%、9%，所以這對我們而言是一個良好的環境，讓我們嘗試扭轉並改善聯運業務的整體核心產品。我們並不是為了——只是為了丟掉不良業務而把不良業務趕走；我們是在修復並強化CSX旗下的聯運特許經營（franchise）與聯運網路，使其未來能夠持續、穩定且有利可圖地成長、再成長、再成長。Mark？

And I think, Allison, one thing under scheduled railroading that we've talked about a lot historically in some of the Northern -- the Canadians talked about a lot, and we're focused on here as well trip plan compliance. Trip plan compliance is what the customer experiences. When the train departs in the terminal and when it arrives is one measure. But what the customer experiences is did we hit the committed-to trip plan for his or her container for intermodal. That's something that we are intensely, intensely focused on at CSX right now, and we will be rolling that out to customers this year. And that's what -- that's our product. That's what we sell to our customers, is meeting their trip plans and the commitments that we make to them on when we're going to deliver their goods.

我想，Allison，在定期化鐵路運營（scheduled railroading）之下，有一件事我們過去談了很多，北方的一些——加拿大的公司也談了很多，而我們在這裡也同樣聚焦：行程計畫符合度（trip plan compliance）。行程計畫符合度就是客戶實際感受到的體驗。列車在場站何時出發、何時到達是一個衡量方式。但客戶真正感受到的是：我們是否達成對他或她的聯運貨櫃所承諾的行程計畫。這是我們目前在CSX極度、極度專注的事情，而且我們今年會把這套做法推向客戶。而那就是——那就是我們的產品。我們賣給客戶的，就是達成他們的行程計畫，以及我們對他們在何時交付貨物所做出的承諾。

Next question comes from Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的Brian Ossenbeck。

So I want to go back to the export coal outlook embedded in the 2019 guidance. What are you thinking in terms of the range of assumptions, specifically for volume and the mix of thermal and met? You had a pretty good year, as did the market, for thermal last year. Do you think that moderates? And I know you said that basically in the back half year, there's going to be some softness on the pricing. But what about the first quarter? I'd imagine that's reasonably well spoken for at this point. Can you give us some color as to how that's shaping up first quarter of '19?

我想回到2019年指引中所隱含的出口煤展望。你們在假設範圍方面是怎麼想的，特別是運量以及動力煤（thermal）與冶金煤（met）的組合？去年你們的動力煤表現相當不錯，市場也是如此。你認為那會趨於溫和嗎？我知道你說過基本上在下半年，價格會有一些疲軟。但第一季呢？我想在這個時間點，第一季應該已經相當程度被預訂/鎖定了。你能否提供一些背景，說明2019年第一季的情況目前如何發展？

Sure. So 2018 was -- I think it was the second-highest export coal year that this company has ever done, somewhere around 43 million tons. We expect similar, low 40s, in 2019. Hopefully, we were able to match our performance in 2018. Look, the mix is 65% met, 35% thermal. That hasn't changed. I should say that of our export coal for 2019, we have about 65% of our contracts that are already locked up. And the team is working hard to get that to 100%. So we see a very good demand environment, and the benchmarks are where the benchmarks are. And there's a forward curve, who knows where that's going to end. Bounced around like crazy in 2018. We're not sure exactly what's going happen, but we've made reasonable assumptions in our plan for 2019, which I think, as I said, are reasonable. And again, as long as we can get the coal out of the ground and get it to the port, and I think we'll have a very good export coal year.

當然。2018年——我認為是這家公司歷來第二高的出口煤年份，大約4,300萬噸左右。我們預期2019年也會相近，約在4,000萬噸出頭。希望我們能夠匹配2018年的表現。你看，組合是65%冶金煤、35%動力煤。這沒有改變。我也應該說，就我們2019年的出口煤而言，大約有65%的合約已經鎖定。團隊正努力把它提高到100%。因此我們看到需求環境非常好，而基準價格就維持在目前的基準水準。而且有遠期曲線，但誰知道最後會走到哪裡。2018年波動得非常劇烈。我們不確定究竟會發生什麼，但我們在2019年的計畫中做了合理的假設，我認為——如我所說——是合理的。再者，只要我們能把煤從礦區挖出來並運到港口，我想我們將會有一個非常好的出口煤年份。

And just to follow up on that, the 65% of contracts., can you just put some more context around that? Is that spoken-for volume tied to a benchmark? And is that any different in this cycle versus the last one because clearly we've come off (inaudible).

再追問一下，關於那 65% 的合約，能否再多提供一些背景脈絡？這些已被承諾的運量是否與某個基準指標掛鉤？而且相較於上一個週期，這一輪是否有任何不同？因為很明顯我們是從（聽不清）走過來的。

Yes. So it was 65%, sorry. I don't want to go into the specifics of our contracts, but some of them are tied to the various benchmarks, so pricing goes up and down, collars, et cetera, et cetera. But the 65% is significantly higher than where we were this time last year. So this time last year, we were low in terms of contracts signed up, and we've started the year really good there. So that's just -- it's a reflection of the demand and that our customers want to lock up -- lock these contracts up, too. So we're very happy with that.

是的。所以是 65%，抱歉。我不想深入談我們合約的細節，但其中一些確實與各種基準指標掛鉤，因此價格會上下浮動，包含上下限（collars）等等。但這個 65% 明顯高於我們去年同一時間的水準。去年這個時候，我們在已簽約合約的比例上偏低，而今年開年在這方面表現非常好。所以這只是——反映了需求，以及我們的客戶也希望鎖定——把這些合約也鎖定下來。因此我們對此非常滿意。

Okay. And then just to be clear, those are volume commitments where some are actually performed.

好的。那再確認一下，這些是運量承諾，其中有一部分其實已經在履約了。

Right. Correct, yes.

對。沒錯，是的。

Our next question comes from Justin Long with Stephens.

下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Justin Long。

So wanted to ask about your expectation for gains on sale this year. I know it's hard to predict but just curious if you have any initial thoughts on what this year looks like versus 2018. And then also on equipment, you referenced the reductions you've seen in cars online and locomotives. Can you share with us what your expectation for the reduction in 2019 is, if you have those numbers?

想請教你們對今年出售收益（gains on sale）的預期。我知道這很難預測，但想了解你們對今年相較於 2018 年的初步看法。另外在設備方面，你提到你們看到線上車輛（cars online）和機車（locomotives）數量的下降。如果你們有那些數字，能否分享一下你們對 2019 年降幅的預期？

Hey, Justin, Frank. In terms of the real estate, as Jim mentioned in his remarks, we did have an extremely good 2018. We still have a good pipeline for 2019, perhaps not as good as 2018, but you should expect some choppiness quarter-by-quarter in 2019 on real estate. On the line sales, in 2018, we did have line sales that had both cash and gain impacts. It's a little unusual to have the gain impacts on line sales. Those were lease conversions that drove some operating income favorability. In terms of 2019, we do have a couple of line sales in the work. They will be cash accretive but not necessarily operating income accretive. In terms of your equipment question, yes, we had a great run in 2018, both in terms of engines and in terms of cars. We will continue -- as service improves and depending on the volume elements of things, we'll continue to see less equipment in service in 2019. We don't have specific targets around that. Obviously, a lot of that's going to be dependent on achievement of service levels and the volumes that come onboard. But you should continue to see us run a better railroad, a more efficient railroad, a safer railroad and continue to drive long-term profitable, sustainable growth.

嗨，Justin，我是 Frank。就不動產而言，如 Jim 在致詞中提到的，我們 2018 年表現非常好。2019 年我們仍有不錯的案源（pipeline），可能不如 2018 年那麼好，但你應該預期 2019 年不動產會在各季之間有些波動。至於線路出售（line sales），2018 年我們確實有一些線路出售同時帶來現金與收益的影響。線路出售出現收益影響是比較不常見的。那些是租賃轉換（lease conversions），帶動了部分營業利益的有利變動。就 2019 年而言，我們手上有幾筆線路出售正在進行。它們會增加現金（cash accretive），但不一定會增加營業利益（operating income accretive）。至於你問的設備問題，是的，我們 2018 年表現很強，不論是引擎（engines）或車輛（cars）。隨著服務改善，以及視運量等因素而定，我們在 2019 年會持續看到投入服務的設備數量下降。我們沒有針對此設定明確目標。顯然其中很大一部分將取決於服務水準的達成，以及新增上線的運量。但你應該會持續看到我們營運更好的鐵路、更有效率的鐵路、更安全的鐵路，並持續推動長期、可獲利且可持續的成長。

Our next question comes from Matt Reustle with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自 Goldman Sachs 的 Matt Reustle。

One on the intermodal business. As you get past the rationalization and you return to those normalized growth rates in 2020, what should we expect those normalized growth rates to look like? Is this a segment that you would expect to be the fastest-growing in the business?

關於聯運（intermodal）業務的一個問題。當你們完成合理化調整，並在 2020 年回到正常化成長率之後，我們應該預期這些正常化成長率大概會是什麼樣子？這會是你們業務中預期成長最快的板塊嗎？

We hope so. At better profitability, that would be great. Again, we took off 7%, grew 2% in 2018, so 9%. All depends, state of the economy, demand, you have all the things working in your favor. But certainly, it should be healthy -- it should grow at a healthy clip, a couple points above GDP, hopefully, if not more, at better profitability.

我們希望如此。如果能在更好的獲利能力下達成，那就更棒了。再說一次，我們先砍掉了 7%，2018 年又成長了 2%，合計是 9%。一切都取決於經濟狀況、需求，以及所有對你有利的因素。但可以肯定的是，它應該會維持健康——應該以健康的速度成長，希望能比 GDP 高出幾個百分點，甚至更多，同時具備更好的獲利能力。

Great. That's helpful. And then just one more. In terms of the CapEx budget, it seems like you're trending above the 3-year $4.8 billion target. Are you pulling forward any CapEx? Are you spending more as you generate more? What's driving the trend? And -- or should we expect a major step-down in 2020 to ultimately get to that target?

很好。這很有幫助。再一個問題。就資本支出（CapEx）預算而言，看起來你們的趨勢高於三年 48 億美元的目標。你們是否把部分 CapEx 提前了？還是因為賺得更多所以花得更多？是什麼在驅動這個趨勢？以及——或者我們是否應該預期 2020 年會大幅下滑，以便最終達到那個目標？

Yes, a good question. In 2018, we did pull some stuff forward. We did have an acceleration of PTC. Jim wanted to get that done as quickly as possible. From a safety perspective, it makes all the sense in the world. We had some hurricane damage, obviously, in 2018 that we had to take care of. And then we had a couple of high-return projects as Ed got involved and wanted to look at certain things that can help improve on the maintenance side, especially on locomotives. 2019, we gave you a range there to give ourself some flexibility on projects that may or may not come to fruition as we look across both the commercial side and the operating side of the business. We're going to hopefully finish up Positive Train Control and most of the spending in 2019. We ought to see at least that element of step-down as we get into 2020. But then again, every year is going to be a little bit different. We're going to look at the free cash flow. We're going to look at the opportunities to generate returns on those projects. So we'll give you 2020 guidance as we get out much further into 2019.

是的，這是個好問題。2018 年我們確實把一些項目提前了。我們加速了 PTC（正向列車控制）。Jim 希望盡快把它完成。從安全角度來看，這非常合理。另外，2018 年我們也有一些颶風損害，顯然必須處理。再者，當 Ed 參與後，我們也有幾個高報酬專案，他希望檢視一些能協助改善維修面的事項，特別是在機車方面。2019 年，我們給了一個區間，讓我們在一些可能成案、也可能不成案的專案上保有彈性，因為我們同時從商務端與營運端來檢視整體業務。我們希望在 2019 年完成正向列車控制，以及大部分相關支出。因此當進入 2020 年時，至少在那個部分我們應該會看到支出下台階（step-down）。但話說回來，每一年都會有些不同。我們會看自由現金流（free cash flow）。我們會看這些專案創造報酬的機會。所以我們會在 2019 年進行到更後段時，再提供 2020 年的指引。

Our next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

So Frank, I just wanted ask you a couple of smaller guidance things. One, can you give us some color on equity earnings line for 2019? And then I think you said other revenue maybe a little bit lower but maybe what's a good quarterly run rate for that line?

Frank，我想問幾個比較小的指引問題。第一，能否談談 2019 年權益法收益（equity earnings）那一行的展望？第二，我想你提到其他收入（other revenue）可能會稍微低一些，那這一行比較合理的單季常態水準（run rate）大概是多少？

Yes. So let's do your equity earnings one first. I think if you plug in somewhere in the $20 million to $25 million benefit a quarter in your 2019, you're probably in good shape. This year was $96 million total. I think you're going to see roughly that same amount as you think about 2019. In terms of other revenue, yes, I did say it's going to be a tad lower from a run rate perspective. This year, the number was $582 million. We had $28 million of liquidated damages. So back that one out and then get a little bit lower on your run rate there. I'm not going to give you a quarterly run rate number, but if you take the $28 million off and then back out a little bit more, you'll be in the right neighborhood.

好的。先回答你權益法收益的問題。我認為如果你在 2019 年的模型中，假設每季大約有 2,000 萬到 2,500 萬美元的貢獻，你大概就會在合理範圍內。今年全年合計是 9,600 萬美元。我認為你在看 2019 年時，大致也會看到差不多的金額。至於其他收入，是的，我確實說過從常態水準的角度看會略低一些。今年這個數字是 5.82 億美元。其中包含 2,800 萬美元的違約金（liquidated damages）。所以先把那 2,800 萬扣掉，然後再把你的常態水準再略微下修一些。我不會給你一個單季常態水準的具體數字，但如果你把 2,800 萬扣掉，再多扣一點，你就會落在正確的區間附近。

Okay, helpful. And then, Jim, I understand your point about you've got to figure out exactly where -- what the optimal operating ratio is where you can still grow, so you're not ready to give a number. But is there a reason why that optimal OR couldn't be in the mid-50s? I mean, there's still obviously more to go headcount. the intermodal network changes. We haven't seen the full impact there yet. Could we be talking about a mid-50s OR as the optimal OR at some point in the future?

好的，很有幫助。然後，Jim，我理解你的觀點是你必須精確找出——在仍能成長的前提下——最佳營運比率（OR）到底落在哪裡，所以你還沒準備給出一個數字。但為什麼那個最佳OR不可能在50%中段呢？我的意思是，人力編制顯然還有進一步優化的空間。聯運網路也在變化。我們還沒看到那邊的完整影響。我們是否可能在未來某個時間點，把50%中段的OR視為最佳OR？

Oh, sure, Scott. There's no reason in the world that we -- we look at where we -- like where we are today as far as we comb and where we are positioned in the railroad industry today and can't -- you can't make this stuff up, what we find, that we need to fix every single day opportunity after opportunity after opportunity. So yes, we are -- and I know that sounds crazy when you guide - we don't think we're anywhere near where we can get. So it's not inconceivable that mid-50s is something that someday might happen, but it's not like that is the quest. The quest is to get as efficient as and as best placed as we possibly can be so we can grow the business.

喔，當然，Scott。完全沒有任何理由讓我們——我們看看我們——像是我們今天的狀況、我們如何梳理（comb）以及我們目前在鐵路產業中的定位——就不能……你真的無法憑空捏造我們每天發現的東西：一個又一個、一天又一天的機會點需要修正。所以是的，我們——我知道當你在做指引時這聽起來很瘋狂——我們不認為我們已經接近我們能達到的水準。因此，50%中段有一天發生並非不可想像，但那並不是我們的追求目標。我們的追求是盡可能做到最高效率、把定位放到最好，這樣我們才能成長業務。

Our next question comes from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）的Ken Hoexter。

Just, Jim, you noted you're not seeing economic weakness, so I just wanted to dig into that for a second. Intermodal pricing slipped to about 2.5% from 9% growth. Is that from just the looser truck environment? Is that a shift in mix? Any thoughts on pricing at intermodal?

Jim，你提到你沒有看到經濟走弱，所以我想就這點再深入一下。聯運定價增幅從9%成長下滑到大約2.5%。這是因為卡車市場環境變得比較寬鬆嗎？還是產品組合（mix）改變？對聯運定價有什麼看法？

Well, pricing in intermodal, that was clearly the markets going into the peak season were tight. I mean -- and they've been tight for a long time due to the driver situation and the electronic reporting. So it took a while for that to work out. And so I think that the truck market, clearly, in terms of the spot pricing, has declined. Now in our case, as I've said before, we don't chase that spot market. Our contracts, our arrangements with our customers, our channel partners is much more longer-term. We guarantee we provide a longer-term service, a partnership arrangement with the intermodal people. And they make commitments. They make investments. They buy containers. They do a lot of things in order to be able to grow their intermodal franchise with us. So it's not like, oh, my god. Look at this. It's not that sort of thing. So that is the more recent view of the marketplace in terms of pricing. In terms of the overall economy and are we seeing kind of changes in the economy that would prohibit or limit the intermodal growth, I could say, as I said earlier in my remarks, we look at every economic indicator possible to try and understand what the economy is. And we talk to our customers, which touch every segment of the U.S. economy and especially in intermodal, where they go for -- they move from auto parts to tennis shoes. And so we are -- we believe that we have a very good feel and sense for what's going on in the economy. However, over the last couple of months, everybody, not only us, but when we talk to our customers, we're talking about headline news about trade, tariffs, interest rate, what's going on with Brexit, government turbulence, all of these things that everybody is swirling around that must have -- they had a solid impact on the way you're running the business. So we all go back, and we look in the crystal ball really deeper and we try to determine what's going on. And we go back to the same place we were a few months ago. Everybody, us and our customers, are still very optimistic about the business in 2019 and not necessarily on the intermodal side of the business but on the merchandise side of the business. We have customers who are making long-term capital investments where they're going to be building and expanding their facilities over the -- into '19 and '20, and none of those projects are being pulled back. So we feel very good about where we are right now, especially given the fact that we're dramatically improving the quality of our service and not -- and are just not sitting here with a transportation product that's viewed as a commodity that we just sell into the marketplace based on price, and the customer decides, “Well, I'll go with truck or I'll go with railroad, whoever gives me the lowest price.” Well, we're providing them with a valuable service and changing the dynamics. And we're starting to get business from truck that historically moved on rail. It's now coming back because of the changes that we've made. So it's a good time. And as I said, it's a great time to be in the railroad business.

嗯，聯運的定價，顯然是市場在進入旺季時曾經很緊。我的意思是——而且因為司機短缺以及電子申報（electronic reporting），這種緊張已經持續很久了。所以花了一段時間才消化調整。因此我認為卡車市場，顯然就即期（spot）運價而言，已經下滑。但就我們而言，如我之前說過的，我們不追逐那個即期市場。我們與客戶、通路夥伴的合約與安排更偏向長期。我們保證提供長期服務，與聯運客戶建立夥伴關係式的安排。而他們也會做出承諾。他們會投資。他們會買貨櫃。他們會做很多事情，才能與我們一起擴大他們的聯運版圖。所以不是那種「天啊，看看這個」的情況。不是那種狀況。所以，這就是近期市場在定價面上的看法。至於整體經濟，以及我們是否看到某種經濟變化會禁止或限制聯運成長，我可以說，如同我先前在發言中提到的，我們會看所有可能的經濟指標，試著理解經濟狀況。我們也會和客戶交流，他們涵蓋美國經濟的每個區塊，尤其在聯運方面，他們運的貨從汽車零件到網球鞋都有。因此我們——我們相信自己對經濟正在發生什麼有非常好的掌握與感受。不過，過去幾個月，大家不只是我們，當我們和客戶談時，談的都是貿易、關稅、利率、英國脫歐（Brexit）、政府動盪等頭條新聞；這些事情在大家周遭盤旋，必然——它們確實會對你經營業務的方式造成實質影響。所以我們都回頭更深入地看水晶球，試著判斷到底發生了什麼。而我們回到的結論，和幾個月前一樣。大家——我們和客戶——對2019年的業務仍然非常樂觀，而且不一定只是在聯運這一端，而是在貨運（merchandise）這一端。我們有客戶正在做長期資本投資，將在2019年到2020年期間興建並擴建他們的設施，而這些專案都沒有縮手。所以我們對目前的狀況感覺非常好，尤其考量到我們正在大幅提升服務品質，而不是——也不是只是坐在這裡拿著一個被視為大宗商品（commodity）的運輸產品，僅靠價格把它賣到市場上，然後由客戶決定：「嗯，我要用卡車或用鐵路，誰給我最低價我就選誰。」我們是在提供有價值的服務並改變競爭動態。而我們開始從卡車那邊拿到一些業務——那些業務在歷史上是走鐵路的。現在因為我們做出的改變，它正在回流。所以這是一個好時機。而且如我所說，現在是投入鐵路業的絕佳時機。

Yes, I appreciate that. It just seemed odd to see the deceleration of pricing in intermodal. But let me just ask a quick follow-up. You mentioned the work of -- or I guess, we've seen a lot of the peers adopting precision railroading or, I guess, the final 2 big ones on the Class 1 side. Any impacts in -- that you've seen on service interchange? You always talk about if the industry gets better, it's better for everybody. Have you seen impacts to service as the other carriers start launching into that?

是的，我感謝你的說明。只是看到聯運定價增速放緩，感覺有點奇怪。但我再快速追問一下。你提到——或者說，我想我們看到很多同業採用精準鐵路（precision railroading），或者說，一級鐵路（Class 1）那邊最後兩家大型業者也在推行。你有看到在——服務交接（interchange）方面有任何影響嗎？你總是說如果整個產業變好，對大家都更好。當其他承運商開始推行那套做法時，你有看到服務受到影響嗎？

Well, first, yes, I would reiterate, yes, I mean, to the extent that all the railroads run tethered to a network, so if everybody's running better, it's better for the individual companies. I have not -- I am unaware of any kind of interchange issues that we are experiencing that would be, let's say, attributed to somebody changing their business model. Clearly, day of the week, a couple of days here and there due to snow in Chicago or something like that, yes, everybody gets slowed down, yes, but nothing unusual.

嗯，首先，是的，我會重申，是的，我的意思是，因為所有鐵路公司都綁在同一張網路上運行，所以如果大家都跑得更好，對個別公司就更好。我沒有——我不知道我們目前有任何服務交接（interchange）問題，可以說是歸因於某家公司改變其商業模式。當然，一週中的某一天、偶爾幾天，因為芝加哥下雪之類的原因，是的，大家都會變慢，是的，但沒有什麼不尋常的。

Ken, just to alleviate maybe some of your concerns with respect to the intermodal issue in Q4, don't be concerned. You're always going have a little bit of noise in there. We did see some impact with respect to the lane rationalizations. We are seeing and experiencing some really good pricing renewals from channel partners on the private asset side. And the spot market rates don't really have too much of an effect. 90% of our intermodal business is not impacted by the spot market. Most of our contracts are long or multiyear. We have seen recently -- I mean all kinds of talk in the industry about what's going to happen to the spot market, nobody really knows. There has been a little bit of softness, but I don't think we're too concerned about it at this point in time.

Ken，為了緩解你對第四季（Q4）聯運議題可能的一些疑慮，不用擔心。那裡面總會有一點雜訊。我們確實看到車道（lane）合理化帶來的一些影響。我們也看到並正在經歷通路夥伴在自有資產（private asset）方面非常不錯的續約定價。而即期市場（spot market）運價其實影響不大。我們90%的聯運業務不受即期市場影響。我們大多數合約都是長期或多年期。我們最近也看到——我是說，產業裡有各種討論在談即期市場會怎麼走，但沒有人真的知道。確實有一點走弱，但我認為就目前這個時間點，我們不會太擔心。

Our next question comes from Ben Hartford with Robert W. Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Robert W. Baird 的 Ben Hartford。

Frank, just to clarify on the OR target for '19 now, the previous '20 target was 60%, so that does assume some sort of normal. You talked about choppiness and gains here in 2019. That does include gains to some degree, right? That's not a complete ex gains number, that 60% that you're talking about?

Frank，我只是想釐清一下目前對於 2019 年 OR 目標的說法，先前 2020 年的目標是 60%，所以那確實是以某種正常化為前提。你談到 2019 年的波動與改善。那在某種程度上也包含收益（gains），對吧？你所說的那個 60% 並不是完全排除收益後的數字，對嗎？

Yes. So sub-60 for '19 is obviously the message that Jim's sending, and it's a reported number. So yes, it would include some level of real estate gains.

是的。所以 2019 年低於 60% 顯然是 Jim 傳達的訊息，而且那是公告（reported）的數字。所以是的，它會包含某種程度的不動產處分收益。

Okay, that's good. And then the share repurchase authorization, when does it -- when is it scheduled to expire?

好的，這很清楚。另外，股票回購授權，什麼時候——預計何時到期？

It doesn't have an expiration. But certainly, we'll -- we wanted to make sure we have the authority and the capability to be in the market when the window opens. We exhausted the prior program early, which is why we're announcing it on this call. Normally, it would have been a little bit later in the year in connection with the capital structure conversation that Jim mentioned in his remarks.

它沒有到期日。但當然，我們——我們想確保在窗口期開啟時，我們具備在市場上操作的授權與能力。我們先前的方案提早用完了，所以才會在這通電話上宣布。通常會在年內稍晚一些、配合 Jim 在談話中提到的資本結構討論時再宣布。

Our next question comes from Walter Spracklin with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Walter Spracklin。

I got one question on OR, one question on volumes. On the OR, I guess, Jim, when PSR was first contemplated at CSX, it was a significant opportunity. And I think you executed on that in 2017 and with upwards of 400 basis points of improvement; 2018, almost 600 basis points. I'm just getting now -- I'm hearing you say there's still tons of room for early innings, a lot more to go. But I'm getting the indication that that's going to slow significantly. And I'm reading that right? Is the trajectory now of a 55 OR now far, far down in the future that it's something that will come, and really we're going to block and tackle from this point going forward 100 basis point per year here, 100 basis point per year there? Am I hearing you right on that?

我有一個關於 OR 的問題，一個關於運量的問題。先談 OR，我想，Jim，當 PSR 最初在 CSX 被構想時，那是一個很大的機會。而我認為你們在 2017 年執行得很好，改善超過 400 個基點；2018 年幾乎 600 個基點。我現在聽你說仍然有很大的空間、還在早期階段、還有很多可以做。但我得到的訊號是，這將會顯著放慢。我這樣解讀是對的嗎？也就是說，55 的 OR 軌跡現在變成很久很久以後才會達到——它終究會來，但從現在開始我們基本上就是一步一腳印，每年改善 100 個基點、再一年 100 個基點那樣？我聽得對嗎？

Well, I think that as I said, Walter, you've been following us longer than anybody probably because you've started with me -- with us at CSX. And yes, as you get further down the road, it becomes harder. CN and CP have been doing this a long time and have been recognized to be the greatest of all time and are still considered by some to be phenomenal because they can take a point out a year after doing this for 15 years. We're beating them, and we're saying we're going to get better next year, below 60% off of a 61%. So I'm pretty confident and pretty comfortable that we are clearly not just sitting back and taking it easy. It just gets harder. And so I don't think anybody at this level is going to look you square in the eye and say, yes, I'm going to take another 600 basis points out of the company this year, so (inaudible) it is grinding up.

嗯，我想正如我說的，Walter，你跟我們的時間可能比任何人都長，因為你從我——從我們在 CSX 的時候就開始跟了。是的，當你走得越遠，就越難。CN 和 CP 做這件事很久了，被公認是史上最強，且在做了 15 年之後仍能每年再拿下一個點（point），在一些人看來仍然非常出色。我們正在超越他們，而我們也說明明年會更好，從 61% 再降到 60% 以下。所以我相當有信心、也很安心，我們顯然不是坐著不動、放輕鬆。只是它會變得更難。因此我不認為在這個層級有人會看著你的眼睛說，是的，我今年還要再從公司裡拿掉 600 個基點，所以（聽不清）這是一個逐步推進的過程。

And Jim, you mentioned CN and CP. And PSR has been used as a cost driver, and you've used it very much successfully there. But in prior incidents or prior iterations, it then turned into a revenue driver where PSR could then be used to gain share, to gain traction, be it from truck, from your rail competitor. You're guiding at kind of flat to slightly up volume growth this year. When do you really see an inflection where you can turn around and take PSR and use it the way the other PSR players have done and really drive revenue growth?

Jim，你提到 CN 和 CP。PSR 一直被用作成本驅動因素，而你們在這方面也非常成功。但在過去的案例或先前的迭代中，它後來也變成營收驅動因素，PSR 可以用來搶市占、取得動能，不論是從卡車或從鐵路競爭對手那裡。你們對今年的指引大概是運量持平到小幅成長。你什麼時候才真正看到一個拐點，能把 PSR 轉過來，像其他採用 PSR 的業者那樣使用它，真正推動營收成長？

Well, the reason it -- the reason, in my opinion, and I've said this many times for years and years and years, the reason, in my opinion, is it becomes a point in time when all of a sudden you start to see above-average growth for a railroad company that's adopted this because the quality of the service becomes so much better than it historically was. Again, it's not like some people say, oh, all of a sudden, you get to some point in time, June 22, 2020, and you go, oh, we're going to pivot from cost reduction to growth. It is an evolutionary process that, as you continue to focus on getting new trains to run on time as efficiently as possible, it improves the quality of the service, and the customers can put more. Because we become more reliable, they'll put more business on it. So it's an evolutionary process. And yes, that's why we, Mark and I and everyone here now who has seen the benefits of this transformation, recognize that the customers are actually starting to like us for the first time in a long time. And so we're going to continue to grow. That doesn't mean we are all of a sudden going to say, okay, 60.3%, is it --we're not going to get any lower. No, we're going to continue to believe that each and every year, we can continue to improve the efficiency of the network because, again, it improves the profitability of the company but improves the quality of the service to the customer. So it's an ongoing continuous improvement initiative that hopefully will go on as long here as it has at CN and now CP.

嗯，原因——依我看，而且我多年來一再說過——依我看，原因在於會到某個時間點，你會突然看到採用這套做法的鐵路公司出現高於平均的成長，因為服務品質變得比過去歷史上好得多。再說一次，不像有些人說的那樣，彷彿突然到了某個時間點，例如 2020 年 6 月 22 日，你就說，喔，我們要從降成本轉向成長。這是一個演進的過程：當你持續專注於讓新的列車盡可能準點、盡可能有效率地運行時，服務品質就會提升，而客戶就能放更多貨量。因為我們變得更可靠，他們就會把更多業務交給我們。所以這是一個演進的過程。是的，這也是為什麼我們、我和 Mark，以及在座每一位見證這次轉型效益的人，都認知到客戶其實在很長一段時間以來第一次開始喜歡我們。因此我們會持續成長。但這不代表我們會突然說，好，60.3%，是不是——我們不會再更低了。不，我們會持續相信每一年都能繼續提升網路效率，因為這不僅提升公司的獲利能力，也提升對客戶的服務品質。所以這是一項持續不斷的改善計畫，希望能像 CN、以及現在的 CP 一樣，在這裡長期延續下去。

Our next question comes from David Vernon with Sanford Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Sanford Bernstein 的 David Vernon。

Jim, I wanted to ask you a question on the regulatory and then just a quick follow-up on CapEx. First, the STB poking around accessorial fees, can you give us a sense for how that is expected to play out? Is there any timetable for that review? And do you see any risk to the industry from seeing some of those fees maybe clawed back?

Jim，我想問一個關於監管的問題，然後再快速追問一下資本支出（CapEx）。首先，STB 正在關注附加費（accessorial fees），你能否讓我們了解一下預期會如何發展？那項審查有任何時間表嗎？你是否看到產業面臨任何風險，例如其中一些費用可能被追回（clawed back）？

Oh, I don't know that there's any good -- I mean, I don't know that there's any kind of process -- formal process with timestamp. I just think that the Chairman reached out to the railroads and wants to know more about it. And we have responded and given -- provided a great amount of detail. And none of these issues, whether it's demurrage or any of these things, is new. These things have been on the books for years and years and years. They're kind of industry practices in transportation. So I don't think there's any issue. And you also have to remember that these are public tariff situations. The vast, vast majority of our contracts or services are privately negotiated and have been since 1980 when we were deregulated. And when we sign a contract with a customer, it says you'll be governed by our tariffs. So it's a very, very small percentage of the business that the customers already have not agreed to as being fair and just.

喔，我不知道是否有任何好的——我的意思是，我不知道是否存在任何帶有時間戳記的——正式流程。我只是認為主席聯繫了各家鐵路公司，想更了解這件事。而我們已經回覆並提供了大量細節。而且這些議題，不論是滯期費（demurrage）或其他任何事項，都不是新東西。這些規定已經存在多年多年多年了。它們算是運輸業的產業慣例。所以我不認為會有任何問題。你也必須記得，這些屬於公開運價（public tariff）的情況。我們絕大多數的合約或服務都是私下協商的，自 1980 年我們解除管制以來一直如此。而當我們與客戶簽訂合約時，合約會寫明你將受我們的運價條款所規範。因此，在客戶事先未同意其公平合理的業務中，所占比例其實非常、非常小。

So there's no formal case that's been opened or a docket that's been opened for them. Do you think this is one of these things?

所以目前並沒有正式立案，或為他們開立任何案號（docket）。你覺得這是屬於那種情況之一嗎？

Again, I think this is just the Chairman doing her job. She heard like in the media or whatever, maybe at one of the -- one of those public trains magazine or something like that, she read an article that something was -- nefarious was going on, and they’re reporting on. And she said, well, I better check it out. She sent a letter out said tell me what's going on.

再說一次，我認為這只是主席在做她的工作。她可能從媒體或其他地方聽到，比如在——某本公共運輸列車雜誌之類的，她讀到一篇文章說似乎有——有不法勾當正在發生，而且他們正在報導。她就說，好吧，我最好去查一查。她發出一封信，說請告訴我到底發生了什麼事。

Maybe that interview with Matt Rose the other day.

也許是前幾天對 Matt Rose 的那段訪談。

I didn't say that.

我沒那麼說。

Not sure if you want to comment on that one, but that one would obviously be welcome to your comment. But as a follow-up, I had a question on the CapEx and the Baltimore tunnel project. I read some stuff in the industry rags about that maybe coming back to life. Could you talk a little bit about kind of what that looks like from a capital commitment standpoint and whether or not that thing has been -- come back to life from a planning perspective for you guys?

不確定你是否想評論那一點，但我們當然也很歡迎你對此發表看法。不過作為追問，我想問一下資本支出（CapEx）以及巴爾的摩隧道專案。我在一些產業小報上讀到一些內容，說那個專案可能又要復活了。你能否談談，從資本承諾的角度來看大概會是什麼樣子，以及從你們的規劃角度，那個專案是否已經——重新回到規劃軌道上？

Well, about a year ago, maybe you'll remember, I went out -- just about a year ago, I went out there and met with the Maryland delegation because Hunter had said we would not participate in the project. And I went out there a year ago, and I said, well, give me some time to look at this and figure out what it is, what's going on with this tunnel. Why do we -- why are we spending all these hundreds of millions of dollars for a tunnel under the city of Baltimore? And so we studied it. We looked at it for a long time. And we went back and said to the Maryland delegation, I did again just before Christmas, and said we've looked at it, the economics are such that there would be justification for us to participate but at a lower level than had been previously committed to, the lower level being we believe that there's sufficient turnaround investment to CSX of around -- if we put in around $91 million. I think that's like $50 million-or-so less than what we had previously said we would participate at. The Maryland delegation, I think -- it's my opinion, was pleased that we did what we said we were going to do. And they're trying to figure out if they could find other funding mechanisms to make up the difference. And if they can find other funding mechanisms, then they -- maybe this project goes forward. It is viewed as a tremendous opportunity for the city of Baltimore and the state of Maryland. And we're trying to participate and work with them as best we can.

嗯，大約一年前，也許你還記得，我去——差不多一年前我到那邊，和馬里蘭州代表團會面，因為 Hunter 曾說我們不會參與這個專案。我一年前去那裡，並表示，給我一些時間來看看、弄清楚這到底是什麼，這條隧道到底怎麼回事。為什麼我們——為什麼要花這幾億美元在巴爾的摩市區地下挖一條隧道？所以我們做了研究。我們看了很長一段時間。然後我們回去跟馬里蘭州代表團說——我在聖誕節前不久又說了一次——我們看過了，從經濟性來看，我們參與是有理由的，但參與程度會低於先前承諾的水準；較低的水準是，我們認為對 CSX 來說有足夠的投資回報——如果我們投入大約 9,100 萬美元左右。我想這大概比我們之前說會參與的金額少了約 5,000 萬美元左右。我認為馬里蘭州代表團——這是我的看法——對於我們做到我們說要做的事感到滿意。他們正在想辦法看看能否找到其他資金機制來補足差額。如果他們能找到其他資金機制，那麼——也許這個專案就會往前推進。這被視為對巴爾的摩市以及馬里蘭州而言是一個巨大的機會。我們也在盡力參與並與他們合作，做到最好。

No hard date or anything like that, right.

所以沒有什麼硬性的日期或類似的東西，對吧。

Yes, there's nothing in the 2019 capital number that Jim and I talked about relating to the Howard Street Tunnel.

是的，Jim 和我談到的 2019 年資本支出數字裡，沒有任何與 Howard Street Tunnel（霍華德街隧道）相關的內容。

Your next question comes from Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.

下一個問題來自 Susquehanna 的 Bascome Majors。

This summer, you changed the operating structure of the railroad to a more regional one with more responsibility under the people in those region. And it sounds like there may have been some turnover in that senior team since then. I was just curious, are you happy with the new structure and the results it's producing? And maybe longer-term, either Ed or Jim, could you discuss your thoughts on the bench strength and when you might name a permanent Chief Operating Officer?

今年夏天，你們把鐵路的營運架構改成更區域化的模式，讓各區域的人承擔更多責任。而且聽起來自那之後，高階團隊可能也有一些人事更迭。我想請教的是，你們對新架構以及它帶來的成果滿意嗎？另外從長期來看，Ed 或 Jim 是否能談談你們對人才梯隊（bench strength）的看法，以及你們何時可能任命一位正式的營運長（Chief Operating Officer）？

Yes. We're very happy, I think, with the structure. It's a structure that we're comfortable with, I'm comfortable with, Ed is comfortable with because that's the way we structured the railroad at CN, driving accountability and responsibility down to the line supervisors and the front-line supervisors to make the day-to-day decisions. And our experience is that the railroad runs better that way. So far, that's exactly what we're seeing. And so -- but we'll continue to refine it. We'll continue to improve it. At least the employees tell me they like it because they get to make decisions, and they don't have to pick up the phone and call somebody in Jacksonville and ask if it's okay to take a switch engine off. They can -- they make decisions on the fly in order to make the railroad run better each and every day. In terms of naming someone to, I guess, become head of the operating department, let's call it that, we don't have a specific time frame. Ed and I are working on that along with our human resource people to come up with a plan, and the board because it's important to the board, too, to get -- I would say, to get somebody in there as quick as possible. But we're not going to rush forward and do something rash. We're assessing all of our talent internally. And if appropriately inappropriate, we'll look at -- we'll look elsewhere. But our first -- we got a lot of great people here that can probably step up into that role. And one of Ed's responsibilities when I asked him to come and help me was to help me choose that -- find that person, work with that person and train that person so that they can be the best. And there's nothing that's changed there. Maybe we'll get it done this year, I don't know.

是的。我想我們對這個架構非常滿意。這是我們覺得自在的架構；我覺得自在，Ed 也覺得自在，因為我們在 CN 就是用這種方式來架構鐵路營運，把問責與責任下放到線路主管與第一線主管，讓他們做日常決策。我們的經驗是，鐵路用這種方式運作會更好。到目前為止，我們看到的正是如此。所以——但我們會持續精進它。我們會持續改善它。至少員工告訴我他們喜歡，因為他們可以做決定，不必拿起電話打給傑克遜維爾的某個人，問說把一台調車機車撤下來可不可以。他們可以——他們能即時做決策，讓鐵路每天都運作得更好。至於任命某個人來——我想可以說是——成為營運部門的負責人，我們沒有特定的時間表。Ed 和我正與人資團隊一起擬定計畫，也和董事會一起，因為這對董事會也很重要——我會說——要盡快讓人到位。但我們不會急著往前衝，做出草率的決定。我們正在評估內部所有人才。如果適當或不適當，我們也會看看——我們會往外部尋找。但我們首先——我們這裡有很多很棒的人，可能可以勝任那個角色。而我請 Ed 來協助我的其中一項責任，就是協助我選出——找到那個人，與那個人一起工作並訓練那個人，讓他們能做到最好。這一點沒有任何改變。也許今年就能完成，我不確定。

Our next question comes from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 Ravi Shanker。

Just one follow-up on the guidance. Did you say flat to slightly up volume growth on the intermodal side or just overall volume growth or both?

關於指引我再追問一個問題。你是說聯運（intermodal）那邊的運量成長持平到小幅上升，還是整體運量成長持平到小幅上升，或兩者都是？

What I said was that we are -- with the lane rationalizations that we announced in October and then those ones that we implemented January 3 of this year, it's about another 8%, we looked -- we would look to make that up. And if we're flat, that's great. It we're up slightly on volume, that's even better.

我說的是，我們——隨著我們在 10 月宣布的路線精簡（lane rationalizations），以及今年 1 月 3 日實施的那些，約再減少 8%，我們會——我們會設法把那部分補回來。如果能持平，那就很好。如果運量能小幅成長，那就更好。

Great. It sounded that like that's an intermodal comment. Can you just help unpack your full year revenue guidance in terms of volume mix and maybe some of the components? Because if I look at low single-digit revenue growth, I'm assuming you guys get at least 3% price, which doesn't leave much room for volume or mix growth there even if you adjust for the fuel surcharge headwind. So can you just tell us kind of what you're expecting in terms of overall volume growth in '19?

了解。聽起來那是針對聯運的評論。你能否協助拆解一下你們全年營收指引，從運量組合（volume mix）以及一些構成要素的角度來看？因為如果我看你們的低個位數營收成長，我假設你們至少能拿到 3% 的價格（price）提升；即便把燃油附加費（fuel surcharge）的逆風調整掉，這樣看起來留給運量或組合成長的空間也不大。所以你能否告訴我們，你們對 2019 年整體運量成長大概預期是什麼？

I don't think we gave any volume growth for 2019 other than, as Mark anecdotally said in his comments here related to volume growth on the intermodal side that we hope that we will see flat -- again, because we took 8% of the volume off again -- flat. And if Mark, being the marketing czar that he is, is able to achieve success, he'll grow it again like he did this year. And so the low single-digit number is in relation to revenue growth in 2019.

我不認為我們對 2019 年給出任何運量成長的指引；除了 Mark 在這裡的評論中以經驗之談提到的、與聯運端運量成長相關的部分：我們希望會持平——再次強調，因為我們又把運量削減了 8%——持平。而如果 Mark 以他行銷總管的本事能夠成功，他就會像今年一樣再把它做成長。因此，低個位數是指 2019 年的營收成長。

And remember, Ravi, you got fuel price moderating, so you're not going get the fuel surcharge uptick that you saw this year. And then as you heard me answer I think Scott's question around the supplemental line that's coming down, so you've got more help on the volume and the pricing side than what that low single digit might imply.

另外記得，Ravi，燃油價格正在趨於溫和，所以你不會看到像今年那樣的燃油附加費上升。再者，正如你聽到我回答 Scott 關於補充項目那條線正在下降的問題，因此在運量與定價面，你得到的助力會比那個低個位數所暗示的還要多。

Okay, got it. And just a follow-up, as it was alluded to earlier, there are a couple of U.S. rails left that are potentially going down the PSR path, one of which is your regional competitor. If they do something significant and they do see service disruption as a result of that and there's volume that comes your way, are you willing and able to take that kind of just given your focus on -- the right focus that you have on price and margin over volumes?

好的，了解。再追問一下，如先前提到的，美國還有幾家鐵路公司可能會走向 PSR 路徑，其中一家是你們的區域競爭對手。如果他們做了重大調整並因此出現服務中斷，導致有運量轉到你們這邊來，考量到你們把重點——而且是正確的重點——放在價格與利潤率而非運量上，你們是否願意、也有能力承接這類運量？

No, we don't any -- listen, we're trying to grow the business. That's what we keep saying over and over and over here. And we can grow the business with price and improving margins, and we're open for business.

不，我們沒有任何——聽著，我們正努力把業務做大。這就是我們在這裡一再重複強調的。我們可以在提高價格與改善利潤率的同時成長業務，而且我們歡迎生意上門。

And we have ample capacity: line of road, equipment, people. We're good to go. When they want to bring it over, we're ready.

而且我們有充足的產能：路線、設備、人力。我們都準備好了。他們想把貨轉過來時，我們隨時就緒。

Our last question comes from Cherilyn Radbourne with TD Securities.

我們最後一個問題來自 TD Securities 的 Cherilyn Radbourne。

Just wanted to ask, in terms of your safety goals, wondering if you could give us a high-level idea of some of the areas where you'd like to see improvement in 2019 and how that ties back into the cost equation.

我想請教一下，就你們的安全目標而言，想知道你們是否能從高層次分享一些 2019 年希望改善的領域，以及這如何回扣到成本的計算。

Well, the goals are pretty clear: FRA personal injuries and FRA reportable accidents. So there's complete transparency and no ambiguity in terms of what we're trying to do. From a cost savings perspective, they have put a dollar amount on personal injury. I don't -- my goal -- and I've told everybody here since I walked in the door here, is I don't want anybody to ever get hurt here. And so you see that our numbers, at least from a personal injury standpoint, have improved and come down dramatically. On the FRA reportable accidents/derailments, wow, there's a huge amount of money we could save if we can get that number down, huge. But again, that's not necessarily the sole motivation. Every one of those -- in my opinion, every one of those accidents where we derail that we call it a car or we kick the car down the long track and it derails or something like that, in my opinion, every one of those incidents means somebody could have gotten hurt. And so we got to stop doing that, and we got to stop wrecking things. And so -- but on that accident side, to directly answer your question, there would be a big pot of money there if we can improve that number. Great. Thanks so much. Kevin?

嗯，目標相當清楚：FRA 人身傷害與 FRA 可申報事故。因此在我們要做什麼這件事上完全透明、沒有任何模糊空間。從節省成本的角度，他們已經對人身傷害標上了金額。我不——我的目標——而且自從我踏進這裡的第一天起我就告訴大家——是我不希望任何人在這裡受傷。所以你會看到，至少就人身傷害而言，我們的數字已改善並大幅下降。至於 FRA 可申報事故／出軌，哇，如果我們能把那個數字降下來，可以省下非常大一筆錢，非常大。但再次強調，那不一定是唯一的動機。在我看來，每一起——每一起我們出軌的事故，不管是我們稱之為車輛出軌，或是把車輛踢進長股道結果出軌之類的，在我看來，每一件都代表有人可能會受傷。所以我們必須停止這樣做，也必須停止把東西撞壞。所以——但就事故這一端，直接回答你的問題，如果我們能改善那個數字，確實會有一大筆可節省的金額。很好。非常感謝。Kevin？

Yes, I think we're done. Thank you, everybody, for joining the call. If you have any questions, please reach out.

是的，我想我們就到這裡。感謝各位參加這通電話會議。如果你們有任何問題，請與我們聯繫。

This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may disconnect your line.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。您可以掛斷電話線。