Ciena Corp (CIEN) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Ciena Fiscal Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Gregg Lampf, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加Ciena 2024財年第三季財務業績電話會議。（操作說明）請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。現在我將把會議交給投資者關係副總裁格雷格·蘭普夫。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Chris. Good morning, and welcome to Ciena's 2024 fiscal third quarter conference Call. . On the call today is Gary Smith, President and CEO; and Jim Moylan, CFO. Scott McFeely, Executive Adviser, is also with us for Q&A.

謝謝你，克里斯。早安，歡迎參加Ciena 2024財年第三季電話會議。。今天參加電話會議的有總裁兼執行長 Gary Smith 和財務長 Jim Moylan。執行顧問史考特‧麥克菲利也來到現場，參與問答環節。

In addition to this call and the press release, we have posted to the Investors section of our website an accompanying investor presentation that reflects this discussion as well as certain highlighted items in the quarter. Our comments today speak to our recent performance, our view on market -- current market dynamics and drivers of our business as well as a discussion of our financial outlook.

除了本次電話會議和新聞稿之外，我們還在網站的投資者關係部分發布了一份配套的投資者演示文稿，其中反映了本次討論以及本季度的一些重點項目。我們今天的演講將涉及我們近期的業績、我們對市場的看法——當前市場動態和我們業務的驅動因素，以及我們對財務前景的探討。

Today's discussion includes certain adjusted or non-GAAP measures of Ciena's results of operations. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results is included in today's press release.

今天的討論包括Ciena公司經營績效的某些調整後指標或非GAAP指標。今天的新聞稿包含了這些非GAAP指標與我們的GAAP績效的調節表。

Before turning the call over to Gary, I'll remind you that during this call, we'll be making certain forward-looking statements. Statements included in our quarterly and annual guidance, commentary and market dynamics and discussion of our opportunities and strategy are based on current expectations, forecasts and assumptions regarding the company and its markets, which include risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements discussed today.

在將電話交給 Gary 之前，我要提醒各位，在本次通話中，我們將做出一些前瞻性陳述。我們在季度和年度指導、評論和市場動態以及對我們的機會和戰略的討論中所包含的聲明，均基於對公司及其市場的當前預期、預測和假設，其中包括可能導致實際結果與今天討論的聲明存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。

Assumptions relating to our outlook, whether mentioned on this call or included in the investor presentation that we will post shortly after, are important part of such forward-looking statements, and we encourage you to consider them. Our forward-looking statements should also be viewed in the context of the risk factors detailed in our most recent 10-K and our 10-Q, which we expect to file with the SEC today.

無論是在本次電話會議中提及，還是包含在我們稍後將發布的投資者簡報中，與我們展望相關的假設都是此類前瞻性聲明的重要組成部分，我們鼓勵您考慮這些假設。我們的前瞻性聲明也應結合我們最新的 10-K 和 10-Q 文件中詳述的風險因素來看待，我們預計今天將向美國證券交易委員會提交這些文件。

Ciena assumes no obligation to update the information discussed in this conference call, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. As always, we will allow for as much Q&A as possible today, though we ask that you limit yourselves to 1 question and 1 follow-up.

Ciena 不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而更新本次電話會議中所討論資訊的義務。像往常一樣，我們今天將盡可能安排問答環節，但請各位將問題數量限制在 1 個，後續問題數量限制在 1 個。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Gary.

接下來，我將把電話交給加里。

Thanks, Gregg, and good morning, everyone. Today, we reported strong fiscal third quarter results, including revenue of $942 million and adjusted gross margin of 43.7%. We also delivered quarterly adjusted operating margin of 8% and adjusted EPS of $0.35. Later in the call, Jim will provide additional details about our Q3 financial performance. Highlights from the quarter with respect to our portfolio and our outlook for the fourth quarter.

謝謝格雷格，大家早安。今天，我們公佈了強勁的第三財季業績，包括9.42億美元的營收和43.7%的調整後毛利率。我們也公佈了季度調整後營業利潤率為 8%，調整後每股收益為 0.35 美元。稍後，Jim 將在電話會議上提供有關我們第三季財務業績的更多細節。本季度投資組合亮點及第四季展望。

And speaking of Jim, you will also have seen the news this morning that he's informed us of his decision to retire next year after more than 16 years with Ciena. Jim is obviously an outstanding member of our executive leadership team, and we look forward to him continuing the CFO, while we commence the search process to identify a successor.

說到吉姆，你們今天早上也應該看到了新聞，他已經通知我們，在為 Ciena 工作超過 16 年後，他決定明年退休。吉姆顯然是我們高階主管團隊中傑出的成員，我們期待他繼續擔任財務官，同時我們將啟動尋找繼任者的流程。

On the state of our business, overall industry dynamics continue to be encouraging. And our innovation leadership has frankly never been more apparent. As expected, order flow in Q3 was strong, largely driven by cloud providers and we finished the quarter with a book-to-bill ratio above one. We see this as a positive sign that the market is moving in the right direction with the gap between supply and inventory absorption narrowing. And ultimately, bandwidth demand continues to be strong and is growing, particularly with the anticipated rise in AI-driven network traffic, and the increased found adoption.

就我們公司而言，整體產業動態依然令人鼓舞。坦白說，我們的創新領導地位從未如此顯而易見。正如預期的那樣，第三季的訂單量強勁，主要由雲端服務供應商推動，我們本季的訂單出貨比超過 1。我們認為這是一個積極的信號，表明市場正朝著正確的方向發展，供應與庫存吸收之間的差距正在縮小。最終，頻寬需求依然強勁且不斷成長，尤其是在人工智慧驅動的網路流量預期成長以及人工智慧應用日益普及的情況下。

We are now clearly seeing customers move toward dedicated network capacity and architectures, initially to support AI for machine-to-machine-type traffic. And this brings me to my next point, which is that we believe is most helpful to look at really the current environment through the lens of our two largest customer segments, Cloud Providers and Service Providers. So starting with cloud providers. They are clearly leading the charge in building out their networks to support the expected growth in cloud and AI-related traffic.

我們現在清楚地看到，客戶正在轉向專用網路容量和架構，最初是為了支援機器對機器類型的 AI 流量。這就引出了我的下一個觀點，我們認為，要真正了解當前的環境，最有幫助的方法是透過我們兩大客戶群——雲端提供者和服務提供者——的視角來看待問題。我們先從雲端服務供應商說起。他們顯然在建構網路方面處於領先地位，以支援預期中雲端運算和人工智慧相關流量的成長。

Specifically, they are investing in their network architectures from subsea cables to long-haul routes to data center connectivity, essentially to add capacity with the most efficient use of space and power. Our leading technology best addresses these key requirements. And combined with our deep and expanding relationships with cloud providers, our business with this customer segment is strong and getting stronger in all aspects.

具體來說，他們正在投資網路架構，從海底電纜到長途線路再到資料中心連接，本質上是為了以最有效的方式利用空間和電力來增加容量。我們領先的技術能夠最好地滿足這些關鍵需求。再加上我們與雲端服務供應商之間不斷深化和擴展的關係，我們與該客戶群的業務在各個方面都十分強勁，並且還在不斷增強。

In Q3, we secured new wins with major cloud provider customers, spanning terrestrial, submarine and coherent pluggable applications, the majority driven by preparations for the expected growth in AI and cloud traffic. For the same reason, we are seeing a growing market opportunity for us amongst the expanding set of cloud players, including data center operators and companies that offer a range of cloud applications and cloud infrastructure services.

第三季度，我們與主要雲端供應商客戶取得了新的合作，涵蓋陸地、海底和相干可插拔應用，其中大部分是由為應對人工智慧和雲端流量的預期增長而進行的準備工作所驅動的。基於同樣的原因，我們看到，在不斷擴大的雲端服務參與者群體中，包括資料中心營運商和提供各種雲端應用和雲端基礎設施服務的公司，我們擁有了越來越大的市場機會。

And we have, in fact, been winning an increasing number of these deals with these customers over the past several quarters. Now moving to service providers. Overall, our pipeline with service providers globally continues to increase, and we are winning significant deals, including many new logos. For example, in Q3, we secured new customers in India, South Asia, Germany, Scandinavia and several new ones across North America.

事實上，在過去的幾個季度裡，我們與這些客戶達成的此類交易數量一直在增加。現在轉向服務提供者。總體而言，我們與全球服務提供者的合作管道持續成長，並且我們贏得了許多重要訂單，包括許多新客戶。例如，在第三季度，我們在印度、南亞、德國、斯堪的納維亞半島獲得了新客戶，並在北美地區獲得了幾個新客戶。

In addition, MOFN activity, which we mentioned last quarter, remains strong with 4 major wins in Q3. And just as a reminder, with MOFN, telecom service providers build advanced optical networks and lease fiber pairs to cloud providers, really enabling them to quickly expand their reach and better service their customers. I would say that while these wins bode incredibly well over the longer term, our current results continue to reflect the challenges related to the timing and volume of service provider orders.

此外，我們上個季度提到的 MOFN 活動依然強勁，第三季取得了 4 場重大勝利。再次提醒大家，透過 MOFN，電信服務供應商可以建立先進的光網絡，並將光纖對租賃給雲端服務供應商，從而真正幫助他們快速擴展覆蓋範圍，更好地服務客戶。我認為，雖然這些勝利從長遠來看預示著非常好的前景，但我們目前的業績仍然反映出服務提供者訂單的時間和數量方面存在的挑戰。

Specifically in North America, we have started to see the purchasing patterns of service providers come back into more of a normal balance, as they continue to deploy inventory buildup from prior periods. Obviously, this recovery remains gradual and will take several more quarters to play through completely, but we are absolutely seeing clear evidence of improvement here.

具體來說，在北美，我們已經開始看到服務提供者的採購模式逐漸恢復到更正常的平衡狀態，因為他們繼續部署先前時期累積的庫存。顯然，這種復甦仍然是漸進的，還需要幾個季度才能完全完成，但我們確實看到了明顯的改善跡象。

Further, with respect to international service providers, cautious spending persists and particularly in Europe, related to macroeconomic, geopolitical concerns as well as industry structure issues. As a result, we expect the recovery in order volumes from international service providers to generally lag that of our North American counterparts.

此外，就國際服務提供者而言，謹慎的支出仍在持續，尤其是在歐洲，這與宏觀經濟、地緣政治問題以及產業結構問題有關。因此，我們預期國際服務供應商的訂單量復甦將普遍落後於北美同業。

With that in talking about the markets, I want to move to a discussion of our portfolio. And specifically, the technology advantages that we have in the market today as well as our market expansion opportunities from our innovation leadership.

談完市場情勢，我想轉而討論我們的投資組合。具體而言，我們目前在市場上擁有技術優勢，並且憑藉我們的創新領導地位，我們擁有市場擴張的機會。

In summary, our optical portfolio has never been stronger with our industry-leading coherent modem technology, optical line systems and automation and network control software. Starting with our coherent modems and our latest generation WaveLogic 6 technology.

總而言之，憑藉著業界領先的相干調變解調器技術、光線路系統以及自動化和網路控制軟體，我們的光纖產品組合從未如此強大。從我們的相干調變解調器和最新一代 WaveLogic 6 技術開始。

Last week, I think many of you saw that we achieved the world's first 1.6 terabit wavelength data transmission across some 470 kilometers in a live network with our customer, Arilion. This is a clear demonstration that our WaveLogic 6 Xtreme technology the first of its kind in the world to leverage 3-nanometer technology in a telecom application can deliver unprecedented capacity and performance, setting a new benchmark for the industry. We expect to benefit from a considerable time to market lead with our 1.6 terabit solution, particularly given that no other competitor has even announced plans for a solution beyond 1.2 terabit, and we already have orders from 23 customers for WaveLogic 6, a list that continues to grow, and we will recognize revenue in Q4 as we begin shipping. As II traffic demand increase and do become more distributed, line systems that are reliable, maximize capacity on fiber and most importantly, minimize power are critical to forward-looking network architectures.

我想你們很多人都看到了，上週我們與客戶 Arilion 在實際網路中實現了世界上首次 1.6 太比特波長資料傳輸，傳輸距離約為 470 公里。這清楚地表明，我們的 WaveLogic 6 Xtreme 技術（世界上第一個在電信應用中利用 3 奈米技術的技術）可以提供前所未有的容量和性能，為業界樹立新的標竿。我們預計憑藉 1.6 太比特解決方案，我們將擁有相當大的上市時間領先優勢，尤其是考慮到其他競爭對手甚至還沒有宣布推出 1.2 太比特以上的解決方案計劃，而且我們已經收到 23 家客戶的 WaveLogic 6 訂單，這個名單還在不斷增長，我們將在第四季度開始發貨時確認收入。隨著 II 流量需求增加並變得更加分散，可靠的線路系統能夠最大限度地利用光纖容量，最重要的是最大限度地降低功耗，這對面向未來的網路架構至關重要。

For several years, we have been closely collaborating with leading cloud providers on the design of that next-generation line system. The result is our reconfigurable line system platform, often referred to as RLS. It is the industry's leading open line system that can manage bandwidth-intensive applications with greater scale, density and programmability, all while consuming less space and, of course, power.

多年來，我們一直與領先的雲端服務供應商密切合作，共同設計下一代線路系統。最終成果就是我們的可重構生產線系統平台，通常被稱為 RLS。它是業界領先的開放式線路系統，能夠以更大的規模、密度和可程式化管理頻寬密集型應用，同時佔用更少的空間，當然也更少的電力。

As a result, RLS is now being deployed by all of the major cloud providers as well as a growing number of service providers. In fact, it has quickly become the industry's line system of choice to form the foundation of their AI-optimized network architectures. And accordingly, we expect orders and revenue for RLS to increase over the coming quarters, which lays further track, quite literally, for future business with capacity adds over time.

因此，所有主要的雲端提供者以及越來越多的服務提供者現在都在部署 RLS。事實上，它已迅速成為業界建構人工智慧優化網路架構的基礎首選線路系統。因此，我們預計 RLS 的訂單和收入將在未來幾季增加，這無疑為未來的業務發展奠定了基礎，隨著時間的推移，產能也將隨之增加。

Finally, let me talk about our Navigator Network Control suite, the most advanced network control software in the industry today. Some of you may remember this by its former name MCP. As network architectures evolve to meet bandwidth demand driven by AI and cloud-based applications, they are also obviously growing in complexity. As a result, the need to automate the management and control of these networks has never been greater. Our Navigator Network control suite is designed to do just that. And it is the first and currently the only domain controller based on a micro services architecture to optimize scale and performance.

最後，讓我來談談我們的 Navigator 網路控制套件，這是當今業界最先進的網路控制軟體。你們當中有些可能還記得它以前的名字 MCP。隨著網路架構不斷發展以滿足人工智慧和雲端應用帶來的頻寬需求，其複雜性也大幅增加。因此，對這些網路進行自動化管理和控制的需求從未如此迫切。我們的 Navigator Network 控制套件正是為此而設計的。它是第一個也是目前唯一一個基於微服務架構的網域控制器，旨在優化規模和效能。

It basically provides a single view across all network layers. Optical Ethernet and IP to coordinate life cycle network operations, all within a single software system. Moving on from our Optical foundation technologies. And with respect to our market expansion opportunities, we are seeing a growing and incremental opportunity inside and around the data center.

它基本上提供了跨所有網路層的統一視圖。利用光乙太網路和 IP 技術協調生命週期網路操作，所有操作都在一個軟體系統中完成。接下來，我們將介紹我們的光學基礎技術。至於我們的市場擴張機會，我們看到資料中心內部及週邊地區的機會正在不斷增長和增加。

Specifically, our foundational optical technologies can be leveraged in a variety of form factors, including pluggables and high-speed interconnect technologies, really to address a range of consumption models. In pluggables, we already have several significant wins. In fact, we're ramping revenue for 400 CR at cloud providers for around the data center applications. specifically really short-reach data center interconnect.

具體來說，我們的基礎光學技術可以應用於各種外形尺寸，包括可插拔和高速互連技術，從而真正滿足各種消費模式的需求。在可插拔技術方面，我們已經取得了一些重大勝利。事實上，我們正​​在為雲端服務供應商的資料中心應用（特別是短距離資料中心互連）提高 400 CR 的收入。

I would remind everybody that we've now won three of the top four cloud providers for 400 CR, and as we mentioned last quarter, we are also the recipient of the first 800 ZR award by any major cloud provider. In looking at opportunities for our interconnect portfolio inside the data center, we are collaborating closely with several cloud customers and ecosystem partners in this area, and expect this opportunity to develop and mature over time.

我想提醒大家，我們現在已經贏得了四大雲端服務供應商中的三個 400 CR 獎項，而且正如我們上個季度提到的，我們還獲得了主要雲端服務供應商頒發的首個 800 ZR 獎項。在探索資料中心內部互連產品組合的機會時，我們正在與該領域的幾家雲端客戶和生態系統合作夥伴密切合作，並期望這一機會能夠隨著時間的推移而發展和成熟。

We are also gaining traction in our market expansion opportunities around broadband access and coherent ramping. In broadband access, as public funding is distributed, which admittedly is taking longer than expected, we would look forward to providing more customers a modular and open XGS PON solution. This is grounded in the competitive advantage that we have with our optical technology and is a cost-effective, flexible and sustainable OLT solution, that can address residential, enterprise and mobility use cases.

我們在寬頻接取和協同增效方面的市場擴張機會也正在取得進展。在寬頻存取方面，隨著公共資金的分配（誠然，這比預期的時間要長），我們期待為更多客戶提供模組化和開放的 XGS PON 解決方案。這是基於我們在光學技術方面所擁有的競爭優勢，是一種經濟高效、靈活且可持續的 OLT 解決方案，可滿足住宅、企業和行動應用場景的需求。

In coherent routing, the growing need for scale and cost efficiency across network domains to support increased traffic flows from new applications will continue to drive customers to converge the IP in optical as we believe, over time in the metro. We are well positioned to support them with our purpose-built coherent aggregation routers, -- so in summary, I'd say that we delivered a strong performance in Q3, and we remain encouraged by the improving industry dynamics.

在相干路由中，為了支援來自新應用的不斷增長的流量，網路域對規模和成本效益的需求日益增長，這將繼續推動客戶將光纖中的 IP 整合起來，我們相信，隨著時間的推移，這種整合也將在城域網路中實現。我們擁有專門設計的相干聚合路由器，能夠很好地為他們提供支援——總而言之，我認為我們在第三季度取得了強勁的業績，並且我們對不斷改善的行業動態感到鼓舞。

Clearly continue to be strong. Spending dynamics among our North American service providers are gradually improving, but our market leadership driven by the strength of our innovation and time-to-market advantage will continue to drive share gains and open up new opportunities over time.

顯然要繼續保持強勁勢頭。北美服務供應商的支出動態正在逐步改善，但我們憑藉強大的創新能力和上市時間優勢所維持的市場領導地位，將繼續推動市場份額的成長，並隨著時間的推移開闢新的機會。

With that, I'll turn it over to Jim.

這樣，我就把話筒交給吉姆了。

Thank you, Gary. Good morning, everyone. As Gary stated, we delivered strong fiscal third quarter financial results. Total revenue in Q3 was (technical difficulty) This included two 10% customers, one cloud provider and one service provider. Adjusted gross margin was 43.7%. Q3 adjusted operating expense was $336 million. Book-to-bill was greater than one as we expected. With respect to profitability measures in Q3, we delivered adjusted operating margin of 8%, adjusted net income of $51 million and adjusted EPS of $0.35 per share.

謝謝你，加里。各位早安。正如 Gary 所說，我們取得了強勁的第三財季財務表現。第三季總收入為（技術困難）。其中包括兩家佔比 10% 的客戶，一家雲端服務供應商和一家服務供應商。調整後毛利率為 43.7%。第三季調整後營運費用為3.36億美元。訂單出貨比正如我們預期的那樣，結果大於1。就第三季的獲利指標而言，我們實現了調整後的營業利潤率為 8%，調整後的淨收入為 5,100 萬美元，調整後的每股收益為 0.35 美元。

In addition, we used $159 million in cash for operations. We have been engaged in a strategic realignment of our supply chain activities, including improvements in processes and systems as well as changes in our vendor relationships to improve resilience.

此外，我們還使用了 1.59 億美元的現金用於營運。我們一直在對供應鏈活動進行策略性調整，包括改善流程和系統以及改變與供應商的關係，以提高韌性。

As a part of this transition and to facilitate inventory movement across our vendor base, we made a cash advance of approximately $175 million to one of our vendors which will be recovered over the next few quarters. Adjusted EBITDA in Q3 was $99 million.

作為轉型的一部分，為了促進我們供應商之間的庫存流動，我們向其中一家供應商預付了約 1.75 億美元的現金，這筆款項將在未來幾季內收回。第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 9,900 萬美元。

Finally, we ended the quarter with approximately $1.2 billion in cash and investments. We repurchased approximately 600,000 shares for $29 million during the quarter. And we continue to target the repurchase of $250 million in shares by the end of fiscal year '24. Turning to some portfolio highlights from the quarter. In optical, WaveLogic 5 traction continues. We shipped close to 12,000 WaveLogic 5 Extreme modems in Q3 and added another 12 customers none of which are new logos for Ciena.

最後，本季末我們擁有約 12 億美元的現金和投資。本季我們以 2,900 萬美元的價格回購了約 60 萬股股票。我們將繼續以在 2024 財年結束前回購 2.5 億美元股票為目標。接下來介紹本季的一些投資組合亮點。在光學領域，WaveLogic 5 繼續保持領先地位。第三季度，我們出貨了近 12,000 台 WaveLogic 5 Extreme 數據機，並新增了 12 位客戶，但這些客戶都不是 Ciena 的新客戶。

We also continued to gain momentum with WaveLogic 5 Nano, ZR and ZR Plus, shipping a record number of pluggables in the quarter for revenue. We added 18 new WaveLogic 5 Nano customers for a total of 122 to date. Also in optical, WaveServer revenue in Q3 was up 29% year-over-year and 25% sequentially, with seven new customers in the quarter. Our routing and switching business continues to gain momentum. In Q3, we secured nine new broadband access customers across Europe and the US increasing our global broadband customer count to more than 65 and our coherent routing solution, which leverages our coherent aggregation routers in combination with our WaveLogic 5 Nano pluggable and Navigator Network control suite is also increasingly being selected by customers to replace outdated legacy IP solution.

WaveLogic 5 Nano、ZR 和 ZR Plus 也持續保持成長勢頭，本季可插拔設備的出貨量創下歷史新高，營收也隨之成長。我們新增了 18 位元 WaveLogic 5 Nano 用戶，迄今為止用戶總數已達 122 位元。在光纖業務方面，WaveServer 第三季的營收年增 29%，季增 25%，該季新增了 7 位客戶。我們的路由和交換業務持續成長。第三季度，我們在歐洲和美國獲得了九個新的寬頻存取客戶，使我們的全球寬頻客戶數量超過 65 個。此外，我們的一致性路由解決方案（該方案利用我們的一致性聚合路由器，並結合我們的 WaveLogic 5 Nano 可插拔設備和 Navigator 網路控制套件）也越來越多地被客戶選擇，以取代過時的傳統 IP 解決方案。

Other portfolio highlights from the quarter include another good quarter for Platform Software and Services with revenue up 5% year-over-year and Blue Planet revenue nearly doubled year-over-year. Turning now to guidance. For the fiscal fourth quarter, we expect to deliver revenue in a range of $1.06 billion to $1.14 billion. This would put us at about $4 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2024, in line with the guidance we provided in June.

本季其他投資組合亮點包括平台軟體和服務業務的另一個好季度，營收年增 5%；藍色星球業務的營收年增近一倍。現在進入指導環節。我們預計本財年第四季營收將在 10.6 億美元至 11.4 億美元之間。這將使我們在 2024 財年的收入達到約 40 億美元，與我們 6 月給出的預期一致。

We expect Q4 adjusted gross margin to be in the low to mid-40s range. Gary spoke about our reconfigurable line system, which has the combination of intelligence and high capacity that makes it ideal for next-gen AI-driven network, and we're selling along. This has a near-term effect on our gross margins. But as we sell the modems to provide capacity on new brands, our margin will improve.

我們預計第四季調整後毛利率將在 40% 左右。Gary 談到了我們的可重構線路系統，該系統兼具智慧性和高容量，使其成為下一代人工智慧驅動網路的理想選擇，我們正在積極推廣。這將對我們的毛利率產生短期影響。但是，隨著我們銷售調變解調器來為新品牌提供容量，我們的利潤率將會提高。

And we expect adjusted operating expense to be approximately $350 million. Looking ahead to fiscal year 2025, as this is our normal practice, we will provide a detailed view of our expectations when we report our Q4 results in December. With that said, we previously indicated that fiscal 2024 would be a transition year following a few years that were impacted by the unusual amounts of the pandemic that led to supply chain challenges and a subsequent snapback, resulting in outsized growth in fiscal 2023.

我們預計調整後的營運費用約為 3.5 億美元。展望 2025 財年，按照慣例，我們將在 12 月公佈第四季度業績時，詳細闡述我們的預期。也就是說，我們先前曾指出，2024 財年將是一個過渡年，此前幾年受到疫情異常嚴重的影響，導致供應鏈面臨挑戰，隨後迅速反彈，從而在 2023 財年實現了超額增長。

We have also said that we believe using a 6% to 8% compound annual growth rate is the best representation of our long-term revenue growth rate, which is faster than market growth based on current forecast. This range, by the way, matches our revenue growth rate over a long period of years. We continue to believe that this is a reasonable and balanced view for the long term keeping in mind that any 1 year's growth rate can be outside of that range.

我們也曾表示，我們認為採用 6% 至 8% 的複合年增長率最能代表我們的長期收入成長率，這比目前預測的市場成長率更快。順便一提，這個範圍與我們多年來的收入成長率相符。我們仍然認為，從長遠來看，這是一個合理且平衡的觀點，但同時也要考慮到任何一年的成長率都可能超出這個範圍。

Before we conclude our prepared remarks, I'll say a few words about my planned retirement. We understand that the investment community likes to have advanced notice of the departure of a senior executive, and we are providing that notice today. Ciena is a great company. We have the best optical technology in the world, and our lead on the competition is growing. We also have a group of passionate and talented employees all over the globe that makes Ciena a great place to work.

在我們結束事先準備好的演講之前，我想先簡單談談我的退休計畫。我們理解投資界希望提前獲悉高階主管離職的消息，因此我們今天就發出這項通知。Ciena是一家很棒的公司。我們擁有世界上最好的光學技術，而且我們領先競爭對手的優勢還在不斷擴大。我們還擁有一群遍布全球、充滿熱情和才華的員工，這使得 Ciena 成為一個很棒的工作場所。

It has been an honor to serve as CFO. But more than that, it has been a tremendous learning experience, and it will continue to be since I will be at Ciena for another year. We will start a search for Ciena's next CFO immediately, and I will work closely with my replacement to ensure a smooth transition.

能夠擔任財務長一職，我深感榮幸。但更重要的是，這是一次非常寶貴的學習經歷，而且由於我還要在 Ciena 待一年，所以這種學習經歷還會繼續下去。我們將立即開始尋找Ciena的下一任財務官，我將與我的繼任者密切合作，以確保平穩過渡。

To close, we delivered a strong Q3, we're confident in achieving our fourth quarter guidance based on the momentum we're seeing in our business and the wins we've discussed. We are optimistic about positioning and capture long-term opportunities and deliver profitable growth, expanding into the new areas of available market over the coming years.

綜上所述，我們第三季業績強勁，基於我們業務目前的發展勢頭和我們討論過的成功案例，我們有信心實現第四季度的業績預期。我們對定位和掌握長期機會並實現獲利成長充滿信心，並計劃在未來幾年拓展到新的市場領域。

With that, Chris, we'll take questions from the sell-side analysts.

接下來，克里斯，我們將接受賣方分析師的提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

Meta Marshall 與摩根士丹利合作。

Jim, just as you mentioned on the call, you had talked about kind of 6% to 8% kind of being a good long-term guide. Just as you look at fiscal '25 estimates as they are and they are within that range, is there a comfort that you have with kind of fiscal '25 estimates of the Street as they are?

吉姆，正如你在電話會議中提到的那樣，你曾說過 6% 到 8% 是一個不錯的長期參考值。正如您所看到的 2025 財年預測結果，它們都在這個範圍內，您對華爾街對 2025 財年的預測結果感到滿意嗎？

And then maybe a second question for Gary. Just on the pluggables wins that you guys have had noting that you said that a lot of those were very short reach. Do you view the pluggables business that you're getting as additive to the business currently?

然後或許可以再問加里一個問題。就你們所取得的可插拔產品的成功而言，注意到你們說過其中許多產品的應用範圍都很短。您認為目前獲得的插拔式產品業務是現有業務的補充嗎？

We won't comment on the '25 estimates out there today. I will say that we feel great about our position in the market. We think 6% to 8% is a good long-term growth rate. It's going to vary from that in any given year as we've seen in the past. And I think we're going to continue to take share. So all of those things are good for us. But we don't want to make a comment about '25 at this point in time. We just finished Q3.

我們不會對目前流傳的關於25年的預測發表評論。我想說，我們對自身在市場中的地位感到非常滿意。我們認為 6% 到 8% 是一個合理的長期成長率。每年的情況都會有所不同，正如我們過去所看到的。我認為我們將繼續擴大市場份額。所以，所有這些都對我們有益。但此時此刻，我們不想對「25」發表任何評論。我們剛剛結束了第三季。

So Meta, on the second part of the question, the very short answer is yes. We view pluggables as an incremental TAM opportunity for Ciena. We've been most consistent about this. Most of that is going to go into the short reach where we really don't have much revenues at all right now. So that's basically it. We do not sit cannibalizing long-haul, submarine, where they're very complex and high-performance system requirements. We're not seeing that. On the metro DCI, which is less than 10% of the total optical market, by the way. We are seeing, again, incremental opportunities for us and any cannibalization would be really into the metro part of that DCI. We're not seeing that gather shape and any cannibalization will be there is more than major by the incremental pluggable opportunity in the short reach and by the overall growing marketplace.

所以 Meta，關於問題的第二部分，簡短的回答是肯定的。我們認為可插拔設備為Ciena帶來了一個不斷成長的潛在市場機會。我們在這方面一直堅持原則。大部分資金將投入短程市場，因為我們目前在這個市場幾乎沒有任何收入。基本上就是這樣。我們不會蠶食遠程潛艦的資源，因為它們對系統性能的要求非常複雜且高。我們沒有看到這種情況。順便一提，都會DCI僅佔整個光學市場的不到10%。我們再次看到了逐步成長的機會，任何蠶食都將真正影響到 DCI 的都市部分。我們沒有看到這種聚集形態，任何蠶食都將主要來自短期可插拔產品的增量機會以及整體不斷增長的市場。

Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

西蒙·利奧波德與雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

First of all, Jim, congratulations, and thank you for giving us a 1-year notice. Appreciate that. I hate being surprised. And we'll miss you. .

首先，吉姆，恭喜你，也謝謝你提前一年通知我們。謝謝。我討厭被嚇到。我們會想念你的。。

So on the questions, first of all, I wanted to see if you could put some dimensions around the MOFN opportunity you've talked about. Given that it's sort of buried in the telco, but it's somewhat indicative of cloud trends, that's my first question. As a follow-up, I wanted to see if you could comment on your broadband opportunities in light of announcement yesterday from one of your competitors winning exclusivity or at least claiming exclusivity with a Tier 1 US operator.

關於問題，首先，我想看看您能否就您談到的 MOFN 機會闡述一些具體方面。鑑於它在某種程度上隱藏在電信業中，但它又在某種程度上反映了雲端運算的發展趨勢，這是我的第一個問題。作為後續問題，我想請您就貴公司的寬頻機會發表一些看法，因為昨天貴公司的一位競爭對手宣布與美國一級運營商達成獨家協議，或者至少聲稱達成了獨家協議。

Simon, let me take the MOFN piece. It's increasingly becoming a larger part of our service provider piece in collaboration with the cloud providers around the globe, and it basically gives the cloud providers an opportunity to get to market quickly. Very often, they will define the architecture that they want delivered and they'll specify Ciena, and that's happening around the globe, particularly in places like India, which is obviously a large target market for the cloud providers.

西蒙，讓我來負責 MOFN 部分。它正日益成為我們與全球雲端服務供應商合作的服務提供者業務中越來越重要的組成部分，並且它基本上為雲端服務提供者提供了一個快速進入市場的機會。他們通常會定義他們想要交付的架構，並指定使用 Ciena，這種情況在全球範圍內都在發生，尤其是在印度等地，印度顯然是雲端供應商的一個大型目標市場。

It's difficult to get visibility to all of those deals, but I would sort of put a size on it, probably 10% to 15% of our total service provider business is actually MOFN in some way shed for. That would be sort of best view of it, which, together with our direct cloud provider business and the Subsea business is getting us in that 40% to 50% of our total business really is cloud, both direct and sort of indirect. That's our best sort of perspective on it.

很難了解所有這些交易，但我可以大致估計一下，我們服務提供者總業務的 10% 到 15% 實際上都是以某種方式從 MOFN 剝離出來的。這大概是對這個問題最好的看法，加上我們的直接雲端服務供應商業務和海底業務，我們總業務的 40% 到 50% 實際上都是雲端業務，包括直接業務和間接業務。這是我們對此事的最佳看法。

And very often, in various countries, there will be a combination of different approaches by the cloud players. Some may be dark fiber, they like themselves. Some may be provision on just normal capacity and some will be on the dedicated MOFN deals, which we're increasingly seeing a lot of the cloud providers lean towards.

而且在許多國家，雲端服務供應商往往會採用不同的方法組合。有些可能是深色纖維，它們喜歡自己。有些可能只是以普通容量提供，有些則會以專用 MOFN 協定提供，我們越來越看到許多雲端供應商傾向於這種協定。

And we are kind of uniquely placed around that given our global footprint in most of the major carriers around the world, our deep relationships with the cloud providers and particularly the highest market share of all of the submarine cable piece as well. So you put all of that together and we're somewhat uniquely positioned to address that market.

鑑於我們在全球大多數主要營運商中的全球佈局、與雲端服務供應商的深厚關係，以及在海底電纜領域最高的市場份額，我們在這方面具有獨特的優勢。綜上所述，我們具備某種獨特的優勢來滿足這個市場需求。

And then timing on the forward-looking perspective on the broadband access business, I'd say this, obviously, our intentions in the marketplace is not to an individual customer, it's to a broad market opportunity. We're very excited about the value proposition that we're bringing to the marketplace in terms of virtualizing the OLT, integrating that into our core network routing, adding that capability to our management suite that we talked about with Navigator, it's resonating well in the marketplace, we are up to 65 customer wins now, and we're hiding quarter-by-quarter to that count.

至於對寬頻接取業務的前瞻性展望，我想說，很顯然，我們在市場上的目標不是單一客戶，而是廣大的市場機會。我們對在 OLT 虛擬化方面為市場帶來的價值主張感到非常興奮，我們將 OLT 整合到我們的核心網路路由中，並將該功能添加到我們與 Navigator 討論過的管理套件中，這在市場上引起了很好的反響，我們現在已經贏得了 65 個客戶，並且我們正在按季度繼續增加這個數字。

So it's much by broader play than an individual customer. And obviously, we're not going to comment on one individual customer anyway. The other thing I'd say, though, is in the short term, it's obviously swimming right into the dynamics that are going on in the service provider space. So there's a bit of a headwind there, and probably accentuated a bit by the delay in the funding. So there's been a bit of short-term headwinds, but we're quite excited about the long-term potential.

所以，這主要涉及的是更廣泛的層面，而不是單一客戶。顯然，我們無論如何都不會對個別客戶發表評論。不過，我想說的另一點是，短期來看，它顯然會直接融入服務提供者領域正在發生的各種動態之中。所以這方面存在一些阻力，而且資金延遲到位可能加劇了這種阻力。雖然短期內遇到了一些不利因素，但我們對長期潛力感到非常興奮。

Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

Samik Chatterjee，摩根大通員工。

Maybe for the first one, if I can sort of ask you more about the order commentary that you had in your prepared remarks. You mentioned the book-to-bill tracking above one, which I think would largely be seen as positive from sort of what your expectations for last quarter, but you also sort of highlighted the more sort of limited improvement or a slow recovery you're seeing with the service providers, particularly internationally.

或許對於第一個問題，我可以再問您一些關於您在準備好的發言稿中提到的順序評論的問題嗎？您在上面提到了訂單到帳單的追蹤情況，我認為這在很大程度上與您對上個季度的預期相比是積極的，但您也強調了服務提供者（尤其是在國際上）的改善有限或復甦緩慢。

So I mean, can you just parse that out a bit in terms of the improvement orders between service providers and cloud and did sort of the service provider order improvement come in below your expectations. And I don't know if you ever provided like in terms of the service provide exposure do you have, how much is -- how much should we think is North America versus international? And I have a follow-up.

所以我的意思是，您能否稍微分析一下服務提供者和雲端之間的改善訂單，以及服務提供者的訂單改進是否低於您的預期？我不知道您是否曾經提供過關於服務提供者的曝光度方面的信息，例如北美市場和國際市場各佔多少比例？我還有一個後續問題。

Clearly, our current order flows are driven mostly by the web scalers. But we do expect some improvement particularly on North American service providers in the near term, and we expect improvement in the international service providers next year. Just as a point of reference, our backlog grew to about $2.1 billion at the end of Q3. We think our order flow in Q4 will be at maybe slightly below our revenue cost. So our backlog, we expect at the end of this year will be $2 billion. We think that it will be a little heavier than it is today around service providers because we do expect some improvement in their order rates.

顯然，我們目前的訂單流主要由網路規模化服務商所驅動。但我們預計短期內北美服務提供者的情況會有所改善，並預計明年國際服務提供者的情況將會有所改善。作為參考，截至第三季末，我們的積壓訂單成長至約 21 億美元。我們認為第四季的訂單量可能會略低於我們的收入成本。因此，我們預計到今年年底，我們的積壓訂單將達到 20 億美元。我們認為服務提供者周圍的壓力會比現在稍大一些，因為我們預計他們的訂單量會有所改善。

And for my follow-up, we all sort of continue to see this robust investment or CapEx cycle from the web scalers and you talked about that being driven by your preparing for AI as well. How should we think about how much of that investment from the webscalers will be towards the pluggables or short reach versus really directed more towards your systems portfolio and sort of traditional portfolio that you have, how you're thinking about where does the AI preparedness benefit really come through on the portfolio side. .

至於我的後續問題，我們都看到網路規模化企業持續進行強勁的投資或資本支出週期，您也提到這是由您為人工智慧做準備所驅動的。我們該如何看待網路規模化企業的投資中，有多少會用於可插拔產品或短距離應用，又有多少會真正用於你們的系統組合和你們現有的傳統產品組合？你們是如何看待人工智慧準備工作帶來的好處真正體現在產品組合上的？。

Yes. I think if you think about the pluggable piece, separate buying plugs to stick in other devices other than a whole end-to-end system, we've been pretty consistent with what we said that we think that, that is a place that plays in the short-reach metro DCI. And we also said that it would take longer for it to be a material piece of the industry or the business. And I think that's played out pretty accurately and we're starting to see that come through in terms of financial results for us as we ship 100 gig plugs into that application.

是的。我認為，如果你考慮可插拔部分，單獨購買插頭插入其他設備而不是整個端到端系統，我們一直堅持我們的觀點，即我們認為，這在短距離城市 DCI 中是一個可以發揮作用的地方。我們也說過，它需要更長的時間才能成為行業或業務的實質組成部分。我認為這種情況已經相當準確地發生了，隨著我們向該應用程式交付 100 個 G 插件，我們開始在財務表現方面看到這一點。

And again, as Gary said, that is net incremental for us because we largely have been exposed to that part of the web-scale networks. I think the broader spend, though, I remind you that we participate with them on submarine applications on their core network applications and then back into the service providers through the multi exposure that we have. In those cases, those are large complex networks. And the winning hand on those comes back to optical line systems and the control systems that go with them.

正如 Gary 所說，這對我們來說是淨增量，因為我們基本上已經接觸到了網路規模的這一部分。不過，我認為更廣泛的支出是，我提醒您，我們與他們一起參與了潛艇應用，以及他們的核心網路應用，然後透過我們擁有的多重管道再次惠及服務提供者。這些都是大型複雜網路。而最終的致勝法寶還是光纖線路系統及其配套的控制系統。

And we think we have the best technology in all three of those dimensions. So we're going to continue to take our fair share of that spend opportunity out there.

我們認為我們在所有這三個方面都擁有最好的技術。所以我們會繼續抓住這部分消費機會，盡我們應有的份額。

Just add to that, the vast majority of spend will continue to be on optical systems, in the cloud space, the vast majority of spend because exactly Scott said, the complexity and the performance requirements of these large systems is what's driving their network traffic.

此外，絕大部分支出仍將用於雲端領域的光纖系統，因為正如史考特所說，這些大型系統的複雜性和效能要求正是推動其網路流量成長的因素。

Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

Amit Daryanani 與 Evercore 合作。

I have two as well. Maybe to start with your October quarter guide for gross margins in the low to mid-40%. I think you talked about you're seeing some mix impact by initially selling more line systems there. Could you just quantify what that impacted just like 100 to 200 basis points headwind, and then do you see that normalize in fiscal '25 as you start to sell more modems potentially? Or is there a longer duration to normalize that?

我也有兩個。或許可以先從你們十月的季度業績指引開始，預計毛利率在 40% 左右。我想你之前說過，由於最初在那裡銷售了更多的生產線系統，所以看到了一些市場混合效應。您能否量化一下這造成了多大的影響，例如 100 到 200 個基點的不利影響？然後您認為隨著調變解調器銷量的增加，這種情況會在 2025 財年恢復正常嗎？或需要更長的時間才能使其正常化？

I won't comment about '25 today. But clearly, the portion of line systems that we're selling today is very heavily weighted, and that's resulting in a gross margin impact. It's at least a couple of hundred basis points. I mean, I can't give you an exact number, but it's at least that kind of number.

今天我不會對25號事件發表評論。但很顯然，我們目前銷售的生產線系統比例非常高，這導致毛利率受到影響。至少有幾百個基點。我的意思是，我無法給你一個確切的數字，但至少是這個意思。

Got it. And then on the telco side, you talked about just starting to see a recovery in North America and EMEA being macro-driven but a little bit weak. I wonder if you can just talk a little bit more about what you're seeing in APAC and India specifically when it comes to telco spending?.

知道了。然後，在電信方面，您提到北美和歐洲、中東及非洲地區剛開始出現復甦跡象，這是宏觀經濟驅動的，但復甦勢頭略顯疲軟。我想請您再詳細談談您在亞太地區，特別是印度的電信支出觀察到的情況？

We're seeing strength in Asia Pacific, we've seen a number of wins, particularly in Southern Asia, places like Indonesia, Vietnam, et cetera. So we see that. And then new logos for us. We have very low market share there. So that's encouraging. In India, I think we're very bullish about India. We have number one market share there. We see good MOFN growth as obviously the cloud is very focused on it. It's a little bit cyclical. They're sort of recovering from the investment in all of the 5G pieces, but we are seeing a lot of activity. So as we look out for the next one to three years in India, again, we remain bullish. It was up a little bit sequentially quarter-to-quarter. It's going to have some ebbs and flows. But I think we're -- we think that we're on to a strong cycle over the next one to three years in India.

我們看到亞太地區市場表現強勁，並取得了一系列成功，尤其是在南亞地區，例如印尼、越南等地。我們看到了這一點。然後，我們設計了新的標誌。我們在那裡的市佔率非常低。這令人鼓舞。我認為，我們對印度的未來非常看好。我們在那裡擁有第一的市場份額。我們看到 MOFN 成長良好，因為很明顯雲端運算非常重視它。這有點像是循環往復。他們正在從對 5G 所有組件的投資中恢復過來，但我們看到了很多活動。因此，展望未來一到三年印度市場，我們依然保持樂觀。與上一季相比，季比略有成長。它肯定會有起伏。但我認為，未來一到三年，印度將迎來一個強勁的成長週期。

And Amit, I want to correct something I just said, in Q3, it's at least 100 basis points, not 200 basis points.

Amit，我想糾正我剛才說的一件事，第三季至少是 100 個基點，而不是 200 個基點。

Jim, congrats on the retirement.

吉姆，祝賀你退休。

Tim Long with Barclays.

提姆朗，巴克萊銀行。

Congratulations for me too as well, Jim, we'll miss you. Yes, first one, if I could, then I have a follow-up. I understand you don't want to get too into fiscal '25 at this point. But Jim, you did make some comments about kind of looking a little bit more normal or maybe Gary did after a strong '23 and correction here in '24. When we look at next year or just going forward, do we think we're back towards more typical linearity in the business just as a go-forward comment? And then I have a follow-up after that.

吉姆，也請代我祝賀你，我們會想念你的。是的，第一個問題，如果可以的話，我還有一個後續問題。我知道你現在不想多談 2025 財年的事。但是吉姆，你確實說過一些關於看起來更正常一些的話，或者也許加里在經歷了強勁的 2023 年和 2024 年的調整之後是這樣。展望明年或未來，我們是否認為業務會回歸更典型的線性發展模式？然後我還有後續跟進。

You're referring to seasonal linearity, Tim?

提姆，你指的是季節性線性變化嗎？

Yes, seasonality, yes.

是的，季節性因素。

Our business used to be very predictable as to its seasonal nature because our business with mainly service providers. With the increase in the sales that we make to web scalers, as Gary said, it's 40% to 50% of our business is driven by their activity. We've become a much less predictable company in terms of our revenue seasonally, we've had very strong first quarters.

由於我們的業務主要與服務提供者相關，因此我們的業務過去具有很強的季節性規律性，因此很容易預測。正如 Gary 所說，隨著我們向網路擴展商的銷售額增加，我們 40% 到 50% 的業務都由他們的活動驅動。從季節角度來看，我們的收入變得越來越難以預測，但我們第一季的業績非常強勁。

And typically in the past, our third and fourth quarter were our biggest quarters. that can change with the web scalers. So really, I can't call our seasonality right now. And by the way, we haven't even completed our plan for next year. So I don't know what it's going to be.

過去，我們的第三季和第四季通常是業績最好的季度。但隨著網路規模的擴大，這種情況可能會改變。所以，我現在真的無法判斷我們的季節性特徵。順便說一句，我們甚至還沒完成明年的計畫。所以我不知道會是什麼結果。

Okay. Great. And then just kind of a two-part follow-up here. Two of the business lines looked a little big changes quarter-to-quarter. So for Blue Planet that jump -- is there just a big deal in there or some kind of seasonality? And similarly, the drop in routing and switching sequentially. So in either of those businesses where there's anything like kind of onetime in them? Or are these more normalized levels here? .

好的。偉大的。接下來還有兩個部分。其中兩條業務線較上季變化較大。那麼對於《藍色星球》來說，這種跳躍——是其中有什麼重大意義，還是某種季節性因素造成的？同樣，路由和交換也依序下降。那麼，在這兩種業務中，如果有類似一次性的情況呢？或者說，這些是比較正常的水平？。

So firstly, on Blue Planet, Tim, basically doubled from this time last year, but off a relatively small base. We've been basically focusing Blue Planet on very specific applications around inventory orchestration. And that's been increasingly successful. So it's not just one big deal. We're very encouraged by what we're seeing with Blue Planet and we'll talk more about that during the coming quarters.

首先，在《藍色星球》節目中，提姆的收視率基本上比去年同期翻了一番，但基數相對較小。我們基本上一直將 Blue Planet 的重點放在庫存管理相關的特定應用上。而且這種做法越來越成功。所以這不僅僅是一件小事。我們對《藍色星球》的進展感到非常鼓舞，我們將在接下來的幾季中對此進行更多討論。

You saw the recent announcement with Lumin, which is, I think, good evidence of that, but we're seeing broad engagements across a more focused set of applications from Blue Planet, including things like network assurance. On the routing and switching, really, I think that's more a function of the overall service provider challenges. And I think we are continuing to make good progress on routing and switching. We're seeing new logos. But I think really it's held back right now by the overall service provider challenges, particularly internationally.

您已經看到了最近與 Lumin 的合作公告，我認為這是一個很好的證明，但我們看到 Blue Planet 在一系列更專注的應用領域開展了廣泛的合作，包括網路保障等。至於路由和交換，我認為這更取決於服務提供者面臨的整體挑戰。我認為我們在路由和交換方面繼續取得良好進展。我們看到了新的標誌。但我認為，目前阻礙其發展的真正原因是服務提供者面臨的整體挑戰，尤其是在國際上。

North America, I think, as we've talked about, I think, is gradually improving. We're seeing clear evidence of that, including routing and switching. The challenge is more internationally than particularly in Europe.

我認為，正如我們之前討論過的，北美的情況正在逐步改善。我們已經看到了明顯的跡象，包括路由和交換。這項挑戰在國際上比在歐洲更為突出。

George Notter with Jefferies.

喬治·諾特與傑富瑞合作。

I guess I wanted to ask about sort of the trend in your direct webscale revenue. You've had couple of quarters in a row now that are a bit smaller relative to what was a couple of quarters of really, really strong web scale sales. So the narrative around AI, the narrative from you guys, I think, just sounds better and better and better.

我想問一下你們直接網路規模收入的趨勢。你們已經連續幾季業績下滑，與前幾季網路銷售非常強勁的時期相比，下滑幅度略大。所以，你們圍繞著人工智慧的論述，我覺得，越來越精彩了。

And I'm kind of wondering what's causing that sort of step down versus the run rates you're at a couple of quarters ago. Is that inventory digestion, maybe it's a function of not seeing the whole picture and I've got to look more at your MOFN deals and sort of adjust for that. But how do you sort of explain that trajectory relative to the narrative? .

我有點想知道是什麼原因導致你們的成績相比幾個季度前的水平有所下降。這是庫存消化的問題嗎？也許是因為我沒有看到全貌，我需要更多地了解你的 MOFN 交易，並據此進行調整。但你要如何解釋這種發展軌跡與敘事之間的關係呢？。

Yes, George. I think that the -- all of our business is going to be project-driven, including that with the web scalers and there are going to be ebbs and flows in their activity. So an increase or a decrease in any one given quarter does not necessarily make a trend. Clearly, as you've seen, though, our webscale business over time has grown from virtually nothing to directly between 25% and 30%. And as we said, MOFN plus submarine is another 15% maybe 10% to 15%. So we're getting up to 25%. .

是的，喬治。我認為，我們所有的業務都將以專案為導向，包括與網路擴展商的合作，他們的業務活動將會出現起伏。因此，任何一個季度的成長或下降並不一定代表一種趨勢。但正如你所看到的，隨著時間的推移，我們的網路規模業務已經從幾乎為零增長到直接達到 25% 到 30%。正如我們所說，MOFN加上潛水艇可能還要增加15%，也可能增加10%到15%。所以我們現在達到了 25%。。

But I will say that one of the things we are seeing is that with the demand on network that the webscalers are putting, they can't do all the work themselves, even they can't do it on themselves. That's why they're turning to MOFN and MOFN has increased pretty significantly over the past year or two. And so that is something that adds to the picture and shows you that we're getting good growth with the webscalers.

但我要說的是，我們看到的一點是，隨著網路規模擴張者對網路的需求不斷增長，他們自己無法完成所有工作，甚至他們自己也無法完成所有工作。這就是為什麼他們轉向 MOFN 的原因，而 MOFN 在過去一兩年中成長相當顯著。所以，這進一步豐富了我們的認識，也顯示我們在網路擴展方面取得了良好的成長。

Got it. Great. And then just as a follow-up. You guys made a comment in the monologue about interconnect opportunities, I think, inside data centers and collaborating with several content providers. Could you talk a bit more about what the application is there and what exactly you guys are doing? .

知道了。偉大的。然後，作為後續。你們在獨白中提到了資料中心內部的互聯互通機會，以及與多個內容提供者的合作。您能否詳細介紹一下這個應用程式的功能以及您具體在做什麼？。

First of all, George, when we talk about our interconnect business, there's really three parts to it. There is us selling our coherent mode of technology that plugs to outside of our system business. There's us selling our virtual alt plugs outside of our system business. And then there's the third one that you talked about, which is the opportunity of taking that technology and reapplying it inside the data center.

首先，喬治，當我們談到我們的互連業務時，它實際上包含三個部分。我們正在銷售一種與我們系統業務外部相容的、連貫一致的技術模式。我們在系統業務之外銷售我們的虛擬備用電源插座。然後還有你提到的第三個方面，那就是將這項技術重新應用於資料中心的機會。

That third one is a longer-term opportunity. The first two are obviously shifting for revenue today. On that third one, the dynamic that we see is as the data rates between -- at a high level between GPUs increased as the distances that they have to communicate increase because of the constraints of power. And as the cloud providers start to look at things like optical switching as a way to provide interconnect at a lower cost and lower power footprint all those things push you to need higher performing optics to connect.

第三個機會是著眼於更長遠的未來。前兩項業務顯然是為了提高營收而轉型。在第三個方面，我們看到的動態是，由於功率限制，GPU 之間的通訊距離增加，導致 GPU 之間的資料速率（在較高水準上）也隨之增加。隨著雲端服務供應商開始將光交換等技術視為以更低的成本和更低的功耗提供互連的一種方式，所有這些都促使人們需要更高效能的光元件來進行連接。

And the physics will dictate that at some point in time, today's existing technology is just not going to cut, it. and you're going to have to bring to bear the techniques that the WAN has seen an preparing for the last couple of decades is the analogy of when the WAN went from 10 gig to something greater than 10 gig. We firmly believe that's going to happen. The question is when, and at what technology space.

物理定律決定了，在某個時候，現有的技術將無法滿足需求。屆時，你將不得不運用廣域網路在過去二十年中一直在使用和準備的技術，這就像廣域網路從 10 Gbps 升級到大於 10 Gbps 一樣。我們堅信這一定會發生。問題是何時，以及在哪個技術領域。

So think of it at a really high level of taking those components, whether they be digital assist with ESPs or whether that be some of the capabilities that we have on analog digital and the electro-optics and applying it to just interconnect inside the data center interconnecting GPUs.

所以，從更高的層面考慮一下，就是將這些元件，無論是具有 ESP 的數位輔助，還是我們在模擬數位和光電方面的一些能力，應用到資料中心內部互連 GPU 上。

Tal Liani with Bank of America.

Tal Liani就職於美國銀行。

I want to ask you two questions. Number one is cloud. So cloud was strong, and you did not participate in this debate of InfiniBand versus Ethernet. You were kind of external to that debate. So the question is, when you look at the cloud opportunity going forward and take a 3-year view, 5-year view, is the opportunity for you. First, is the deployment going to get stronger? Do you think the growth is going to be higher than what we've seen in the last 3 to 5 years in general? And.

我想問你兩個問題。第一名是雲。所以雲端科技發展強勁，你沒有參與 InfiniBand 與乙太網路的這場爭論。你當時並沒有真正參與那場辯論。所以問題是，當你展望未來的雲端電腦遇，並以 3 年、5 年的視角來看，這是否是一個適合你的機會。首先，部署力道會加強嗎？你認為未來的成長速度會高於過去3到5年的平均值嗎？和。

Second, is the opportunity for you getting bigger? Meaning, do you -- are you going to be in parts of the network that you were not there before. So you could see better growth in the next few years. So I have another question, but maybe we can start with the cloud because I think that it will -- it does define your stock and valuation, and I wanted to better understand kind of your participation there.

其次，你的機會是否越來越大？也就是說，你是否會進入你以前從未進入過的網路區域？因此，未來幾年可能會出現更好的成長。所以我還有另一個問題，但也許我們可以從雲端運算開始，因為我認為它確實會影響你的股票和估值，我想更了解你在這方面的參與程度。

Given the pace at which the cloud providers are building data centers. And given that there are an increasing number of web-scale players that are in the data set of business and building out between those data centers. It seems very likely that the webscalers are going to grow as a percentage of our business over the next several years. So yes, I think that's probably true.

鑑於雲端服務供應商建置資料中心的速度。鑑於越來越多的網路規模企業正在業務資料集中建立和擴展這些資料中心。未來幾年，網路規模化服務商在我們業務中所佔的比例很可能會持續成長。是的，我覺得這很可能是真的。

Now are we going to participate in places that we don't participate, Yes, I believe we will. We -- as we said earlier, we don't really participate in the short-reach metro business that's just not in a place where we have won a lot of business. I think we will play in that space with our plugs -- as we said, we have 800 ZR win, and I think we'll have more of those. And it will be a short reach and long reach but short reach in particular.

現在我們是否會參與到我們以前從未參與過的領域？是的，我相信我們會的。正如我們之前所說，我們並不真正參與短途地鐵業務，因為我們在這些地區還沒有贏得很多業務。我認為我們會利用我們的插件在這個領域大展拳腳——正如我們所說，我們有 800 ZR 贏了，而且我認為我們會有更多這樣的產品。它將兼顧短距離和長距離，但主要側重於短距離。

I also think there's a possibility inside the data center. Now that's further out, and we still have a lot of work to do to make sure that we can provide the technology that's going to be needed inside the data center. We don't know what the transition will occur. But we do believe that we'll have a good opportunity to play there. So yes, we're going to be in vain parts of the web scaler network. And including having a big part in the ultra long haul and submarine parts of their networks as we do now.

我認為資料中心內部也存在這種可能性。現在這還很遙遠，我們還有很多工作要做，以確保我們能夠提供資料中心內部所需的技術。我們不知道過渡期將會發生什麼事。但我們相信我們會有很好的機會在那裡比賽。所以，是的，我們將成為網路規模化網路的一部分，但這一切都將徒勞無功。而且，就像我們現在一樣，在他們的網路中，超長途和海底部分也扮演著重要角色。

Okay. Second question is about the broadband, and I'm going to ask it in a sarcastic way, but I'm not a mean person. Why are you even in this business? This is a commodity like -- that's what we've learned in the last few years, right? Commodity like it's about pricing, there are companies that have been doing it for a while, why suddenly you increased participation in this fiber to the X? And why is this attractive for you?

好的。第二個問題是關於寬頻的，我接下來要用諷刺的語氣問，但我並不是一個刻薄的人。為什麼會從事這個行業？這是一種商品——這是我們在過去幾年學到的，對吧？商品就像是定價問題，有些公司已經這樣做了很久了，為什麼你們突然增加了對光纖到 X 的參與度？為什麼覺得這有吸引力？

Yes. I think a couple of things. First of all, you're right in the sense that if there was sort of just a continuum of yesterday's world. That's a very valid question to ask, but our hypothesis is that we're staring at a different world in the future, which is fiber, we'll continue to have -- continue to be more prevalent in the network. Capacities are going to increase. And the technologies that you require to do that, continue to play towards strength coherent optics, and that's playing itself out in the broadband access space. If you think about where the standards are going with 100-gig on it take a coherent technology.

是的。我覺得有兩件事。首先，從某種意義上來說，你是對的，如果昨天的世界只是延續的話。這是一個非常合理的問題，但我們的假設是，我們未來將面對一個不同的世界，在這個世界裡，光纖將繼續——繼續在網路中更加普遍。產能將會增加。而實現這一目標所需的技術，將繼續朝著增強相干光學的方向發展，這正在寬頻存取領域中得到體現。如果你思考100G標準的發展方向，你會發現它需要一種連貫的技術。

So the technologies are swimming to our sweet spot. We own the technology. We're vertically integrated. We will have a great cost base there on the OLT side. And we're bringing a very, very innovative architecture to our customers to service that future-looking demand. It's also the same customer base that we have. So same customer base swimming towards the technology that we have to strengthen.

所以這些技術正朝著我們最理想的方向發展。我們擁有這項技術。我們是一家垂直整合型企業。我們在OLT方面將擁有非常可觀的成本基礎。我們正在為客戶帶來非常、非常創新的架構，以滿足面向未來的需求。我們的客戶群也與我們相同。因此，同樣的客戶群正湧向我們需要加強的技術。

We own the technology and ready to integrate on. Those are the reasons why -- and it's a big spend opportunity out there in the marketplace. So those are the reasons why we're targeting it. We're clearly a challenger but we like the hand that we have.

我們擁有這項技術，並已準備好進行整合。這就是原因所在——而且市場上存在著巨大的消費機會。所以，這就是我們將其列為目標的原因。我們顯然是挑戰者，但我們對我們所擁有的牌感到滿意。

And do you think you can earn good margins on this business?

你認為這項業務能獲得良好的利潤嗎？

Yes. Our margins today -- on 65 customers today and the margins on that today is in line with our corporate average margins.

是的。我們今天的利潤率—來自今天 65 位客戶，今天的利潤率與我們公司的平均利潤率一致。

David Vogt with UBS.

David Vogt，瑞銀集團。

Great guy. Jim, congratulations. Maybe just a big picture question to start. I don't want to get into specifics on fiscal '25. But against the long-term model of 6% to 8% growth in Gary's comments, that's clear that web scale is going to be a bigger part of the business. Can you help us understand maybe before webscale had taken off to the point that it did recently. How we should think about SP spending either in aggregate or by region, given the lull that we've lived through for a number of years. And in the context of that, and Jim, to your point about the backlog and systems being a bigger part of coming out into revenue now.

他人很好。吉姆，恭喜你。或許可以先從一個比較宏觀的問題開始。我不想深入討論2025財年的具體細節。但與 Gary 評論中提到的 6% 到 8% 的長期成長模式相比，很明顯，網路規模將成為業務中更大的一部分。您能否幫助我們理解一下，在網路規模化發展到最近這種程度之前，情況可能是怎樣的？鑑於我們已經經歷了多年的低迷期，我們應該如何看待SP支出，無論是整體支出還是按地區支出。就此而言，吉姆，正如你所說，積壓訂單和系統現在在轉化為收入方面佔了更大的比例。

How should we think about that gross margin impact going forward if we look at maybe history as a comparison. I know COVID was probably an unfair comparison when you shipped a lot of transceivers out of backlog and that helps gross margin. But just any kind of framework or guardrails you can kind of put around the different moving pieces over the longer term, not necessarily '25 would be helpful.

如果我們以歷史數據作為參照，我們應該如何看待未來毛利率的影響？我知道，考慮到當時你們從積壓訂單中發貨了很多收發器，這有助於提高毛利率，所以拿新冠疫情做比較可能不太公平。但從長遠來看，任何能夠圍繞不同變動因素建立的框架或護欄，不一定非得是 2025 年的，都會有所幫助。

David, let me take the first part of that question, the overall sort of service provider dynamics. I would say that they've certainly been challenging all the way through for COVID supply chain and then this absorption, which I think has lasted longer than any of us would have certainly anticipated, but seen through the smoggable of that, if you will, service providers continue to be the primary delivery for all of this bandwidth, including all of the things like AI and cloud connectivity around the world.

戴維，讓我來回答這個問題的第一部分，也就是服務提供者的整體動態。我認為，他們肯定一直都在應對新冠疫情帶來的供應鏈挑戰，以及隨之而來的吸收問題，我認為這個問題持續的時間肯定比我們任何人預期的都要長。但是，透過這些迷霧，服務供應商仍然是所有這些頻寬的主要交付方，包括全球範圍內的人工智慧和雲端連接等。

And particularly when you talk about the last mile or so and on the mobile side. So service providers are certainly not going away. It's been very challenging around the dynamics that we all know from that. I think they are coming into balance. Particularly, we're seeing that in North America, where we expect it to be a continued gradual improvement. We're encouraged by what we're seeing, and certain international markets as well, places like India, places like South Asia for us, look good. Europe, I think, has some particular challenges around the structure of it, which will take time to resolve.

尤其是在談到最後一公里左右的交通出行以及移動端出行時。所以服務提供者肯定不會消失。眾所周知，圍繞著這些動態因素，一直存在著很大的挑戰。我認為它們正在趨於平衡。尤其是在北美，我們預計這種情況將持續逐步改善。我們對目前的情況感到鼓舞，某些國際市場，例如印度、南亞等地，對我們來說前景良好。我認為，歐洲在結構上面臨一些特殊的挑戰，這些問題需要時間才能解決。

But it's also got the tailwind there of Huawei replacement as well. So I do think you're going to get back to a more normalized growth with the service providers going forward, I do, which builds into our underlying 6% to 8%, David, as you mentioned.

但它也受益於華為產品替代者的出現。所以我認為，隨著服務提供者的成長，未來將會恢復到更正常的水平，這最終會達到我們6%到8%的基礎成長率，正如你所提到的，David。

And just on the shape of our gross margins, there -- the shape of our gross margins don't vary significantly across our customer base. Now when we're a challenger going into a new market, sometimes we'll -- a pretty competitive price or they order to get in. But over time, whether we're selling to a service provider or to a web scaler, our gross margins byproduct are going to be in the same range. Now we have said that line systems, in particular, have lower gross margins than our MOFN or capacity. And that's just a function of first cost in to our customers. And that's true whether it's a service provider or a webscaler.

就我們的毛利率形狀而言，我們的毛利率形狀在我們的客戶群中並沒有顯著變化。現在，當我們作為挑戰者進入新市場時，有時我們會——提供相當有競爭力的價格，或者他們會下單進入市場。但隨著時間的推移，無論我們銷售給服務提供者還是網路擴展商，我們的毛利率都會處於同一範圍內。我們已經說過，特別是生產線系統的毛利率低於我們的 MOFN 或產能。而這僅取決於我們客戶的初始成本。無論是服務供應商還是網路規模化服務商，情況都是如此。

And then you look at optical margins versus routing and switching margins. We believe over time, routing at switching margins are going to be accretive to our gross margins. Software will be accretive to our gross markets and services is accretive to our gross market. So that's the shape doesn't really vary across our customer base all that much, has to do with mix and timing of the project.

然後，你要比較光傳輸餘裕與路由和交換餘裕。我們相信，隨著時間的推移，以交換利潤率進行路由將提高我們的毛利率。軟體將對我們的總市場產生增益，服務也將對我們的總市場產生增益。所以，這種形狀在我們的客戶群中並沒有太大變化，主要與專案的組合和時間安排有關。

Great. Can I ask just a follow-up, Jim, mechanical question. I don't think I heard you say where you think inventory is going to end up at the end of the year. Do you have a sense that you can share with us? .

偉大的。吉姆，我可以再問一個關於機械方面的問題嗎？我好像沒聽到你說你認為年底庫存最終會是多少。有什麼感受可以跟我們分享嗎？。

Yes, ended the quarter at $937 million. I think it will come down another $50 million or so by the end of the year, I guess.

是的，本季末營收為9.37億美元。我認為到年底前還會再下降5000萬美元左右。

The next question is from Ruben Roy with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Ruben Roy。

I guess, Jim, just to follow up on that. So as you get through the inventory exiting fiscal '24, how would you assess inventory levels at that point pretty close to normal? Or is there more work to do there?

我想，吉姆，我只是想補充一下。那麼，在對 2024 財年末的庫存進行盤點時，您如何評估當時的庫存水準是否接近正常水準？或者那裡還有更多的工作要做？

You're talking about '25 now. Yes, on is from $150 million or so decrease in Q4, it's still elevated. We're still working through inventory and the big orders that we put on our supply chain over the past 1.5 years. We were a couple of 2x turns or something like that. In the past, we were at much as 6x terms. But I don't think we'll get back to 6x turns. Given what's happening in our supply chain, we will likely be more surplus components of key components in order to make sure that we can get through difficulties in the purchase of some of these components.

你現在說的是25年。是的，雖然第四季度減少了約 1.5 億美元，但仍處於高位。我們仍在處理庫存以及過去一年半以來向供應鏈下達的大訂單。我們當時大概做了兩次2倍轉彎之類的動作。過去，我們的期限曾經高達 6 倍。但我認為我們不會再回到 6 倍回合數了。鑑於我們供應鏈中發生的情況，我們可能會儲備更多關鍵零件的剩餘庫存，以確保我們能夠克服採購某些零件時遇到的困難。

I think we'll get back down to something like 4.5 maybe 5 times, but maybe not down by the end of next year, maybe it's going to be more between 4 and 4.5 in the next year.

我認為我們會回落到 4.5 倍左右，也許 5 倍，但也許到明年年底不會降下來，也許明年會在 4 倍到 4.5 倍之間。

Congrats on your future plans. I had a quick follow-up for Gary or Scott. Just around the 400 CR commentary. I was wondering -- it seems to me like that's maybe a little bit more of a competitive set of products relative to where you've been in systems historically? And just wondering, given the momentum there for your products, if you could maybe just give us a few details around why you're winning. I assume you mentioned power is important, et cetera. But anything else we can you think of around kind of why you're winning and what your visibility is, I guess, for continued momentum in that seemingly important area of the market.

恭喜你對未來的規劃。我還有一個後續問題想問 Gary 或 Scott。大約在 400 CR 評論中。我在想——在我看來，相對於你們以往的系統而言，這似乎是更具競爭力的產品組合？鑑於貴公司產品目前的良好勢頭，我想請您詳細介紹貴公司成功的原因。我猜你提到了權力很重要等等。但是，關於您為何能夠取得成功以及您在這個看似重要的市場領域中保持持續成長勢頭，您還能想到其他什麼原因嗎？

Yes. So just a reminder, our 400 gig ZR plug is based on where we've landed 5 nano technology, if you go back a few years, we had two alternative WaveLogic 5 trams net we consciously made the decision to introduce Extreme first and nano second in the marketplace. And turned over to be the right decision based on our market share gains over the years, but it did mean that we did not intercept the first couple of early movers in the marketplace on the 400-gig pluggables.

是的。所以提醒一下，我們的 400 G ZR 插頭是基於我們目前採用的 5 奈米技術。回顧幾年前，我們有兩種 WaveLogic 5 替代品，我們最終決定先推出 Extreme，然後再推出 Nano。事實證明，根據我們多年來的市場份額增長，這是一個正確的決定，但這確實意味著我們沒能搶在 400G 可插拔設備市場的前幾位先行者之前。

Now the original definition of 400-gig ZR was sort of the least common denominator from a performance perspective. What's happened in the marketplace, of course, with AI coming on gangbusters as people are realizing that power is forcing data centers to be distributed further and therefore, performance starts to be important again. So performance from a reach perspective and performance from a power perspective in that form factor is now what wins in the conversation.

現在，400G ZR 的最初定義是從性能角度來看的最低公分母。當然，市場也發生了變化，人工智慧發展迅猛，人們意識到電力正在迫使資料中心進一步分散，因此效能再次變得重要。因此，從覆蓋範圍和功率角度來看，這種外形尺寸的表現才是現在討論的焦點。

And I'd say after the first couple of awards in this sort of industry segment, we've had a tremendous win rate in terms of being in the competitive bids out there for this technology. And we're going to continue to have that going forward because of that performance advantage.

我想說，在這個行業領域獲得前幾個獎項之後，我們在這項技術的競爭性投標中取得了巨大的成功率。憑藉這種性能優勢，我們將繼續保持這種優勢。

Then I think there is a misconception there about plugs generally -- not all plugs are equal.

那麼我認為這裡存在著一個關於插頭的誤解——並非所有插頭都一樣。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate it. We look forward to catching up with folks later today and over the coming weeks. Thank you.

謝謝各位今天蒞臨。我們非常感謝。我們期待今天晚些時候以及接下來的幾週與大家見面交流。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.

會議已經結束。感謝您參加今天的演講，現在可以斷開連接了。