Ciena Corp (CIEN) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Ciena Fiscal Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Gregg Lampf, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Ciena 2024 年第三季財務業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Gregg Lampf。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Chris. Good morning, and welcome to Ciena's 2024 fiscal third quarter conference Call. . On the call today is Gary Smith, President and CEO; and Jim Moylan, CFO. Scott McFeely, Executive Adviser, is also with us for Q&A.

謝謝你，克里斯。早上好，歡迎參加 Ciena 2024 財年第三季電話會議。 。今天的電話會議由總裁兼執行長加里史密斯 (Gary Smith) 主持。和財務長吉姆·莫伊蘭。執行顧問 Scott McFeely 也與我們一起參加問答。

In addition to this call and the press release, we have posted to the Investors section of our website an accompanying investor presentation that reflects this discussion as well as certain highlighted items in the quarter. Our comments today speak to our recent performance, our view on market -- current market dynamics and drivers of our business as well as a discussion of our financial outlook.

除了本次電話會議和新聞稿之外，我們還在網站的投資者部分發布了一份隨附的投資者演示文稿，其中反映了本次討論以及本季度的某些重點項目。我們今天的評論涉及我們最近的業績、我們對市場的看法——當前的市場動態和我們業務的驅動因素，以及對我們財務前景的討論。

Today's discussion includes certain adjusted or non-GAAP measures of Ciena's results of operations. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results is included in today's press release.

今天的討論包括 Ciena 營運績效的某些調整後或非公認會計原則衡量標準。今天的新聞稿中包含了這些非公認會計原則措施與我們的公認會計原則結果的調節。

Before turning the call over to Gary, I'll remind you that during this call, we'll be making certain forward-looking statements. Statements included in our quarterly and annual guidance, commentary and market dynamics and discussion of our opportunities and strategy are based on current expectations, forecasts and assumptions regarding the company and its markets, which include risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements discussed today.

在將電話轉給加里之前，我要提醒您，在這次電話會議中，我們將做出某些前瞻性陳述。我們的季度和年度指導、評論和市場動態以及對我們的機會和策略的討論中包含的聲明均基於有關公司及其市場的當前預期、預測和假設，其中包括可能導致實際結果與實際結果存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。

Assumptions relating to our outlook, whether mentioned on this call or included in the investor presentation that we will post shortly after, are important part of such forward-looking statements, and we encourage you to consider them. Our forward-looking statements should also be viewed in the context of the risk factors detailed in our most recent 10-K and our 10-Q, which we expect to file with the SEC today.

與我們的前景相關的假設，無論是在本次電話會議中提到的，還是包含在我們不久後發布的投資者介紹中的，都是此類前瞻性陳述的重要組成部分，我們鼓勵您考慮它們。我們的前瞻性陳述也應該結合我們最近的 10-K 和 10-Q 中詳細說明的風險因素來看待，我們預計今天將向 SEC 提交這些報告。

Ciena assumes no obligation to update the information discussed in this conference call, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. As always, we will allow for as much Q&A as possible today, though we ask that you limit yourselves to 1 question and 1 follow-up.

Ciena 不承擔更新本次電話會議中討論的資訊的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。像往常一樣，我們今天將允許盡可能多的問答，但我們要求您將自己限制在 1 個問題和 1 個後續行動。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Gary.

這樣，我會將電話轉給加里。

Thanks, Gregg, and good morning, everyone. Today, we reported strong fiscal third quarter results, including revenue of $942 million and adjusted gross margin of 43.7%. We also delivered quarterly adjusted operating margin of 8% and adjusted EPS of $0.35. Later in the call, Jim will provide additional details about our Q3 financial performance. Highlights from the quarter with respect to our portfolio and our outlook for the fourth quarter.

謝謝格雷格，大家早安。今天，我們公佈了強勁的第三財季業績，包括 9.42 億美元的營收和 43.7% 的調整後毛利率。我們還實現了 8% 的季度調整後營業利潤和 0.35 美元的調整後每股收益。稍後在電話會議中，吉姆將提供有關我們第三季財務業績的更多詳細資訊。本季度有關我們投資組合的亮點以及我們對第四季度的展望。

And speaking of Jim, you will also have seen the news this morning that he's informed us of his decision to retire next year after more than 16 years with Ciena. Jim is obviously an outstanding member of our executive leadership team, and we look forward to him continuing the CFO, while we commence the search process to identify a successor.

說到吉姆，您今天早上也會看到這樣的消息：他已通知我們，在與 Ciena 合作超過 16 年後，他決定明年退休。吉姆顯然是我們執行領導團隊中的傑出成員，我們期待他繼續擔任財務官，同時我們開始尋找繼任者。

On the state of our business, overall industry dynamics continue to be encouraging. And our innovation leadership has frankly never been more apparent. As expected, order flow in Q3 was strong, largely driven by cloud providers and we finished the quarter with a book-to-bill ratio above one. We see this as a positive sign that the market is moving in the right direction with the gap between supply and inventory absorption narrowing. And ultimately, bandwidth demand continues to be strong and is growing, particularly with the anticipated rise in AI-driven network traffic, and the increased found adoption.

就我們的業務狀況而言，整體產業動態持續令人鼓舞。坦白說，我們的創新領導從未如此明顯。正如預期的那樣，第三季的訂單流強勁，這主要是由雲端供應商推動的，我們在本季結束時的訂單出貨比高於 1。我們認為這是一個積極的信號，表明市場正在朝著正確的方向發展，供應和庫存吸收之間的差距正在縮小。最終，頻寬需求持續強勁且不斷成長，特別是隨著人工智慧驅動的網路流量的預期成長以及採用率的增加。

We are now clearly seeing customers move toward dedicated network capacity and architectures, initially to support AI for machine-to-machine-type traffic. And this brings me to my next point, which is that we believe is most helpful to look at really the current environment through the lens of our two largest customer segments, Cloud Providers and Service Providers. So starting with cloud providers. They are clearly leading the charge in building out their networks to support the expected growth in cloud and AI-related traffic.

我們現在清楚地看到客戶轉向專用網路容量和架構，最初是為了支援機器對機器類型流量的人工智慧。這引出了我的下一個觀點，即我們認為透過我們兩個最大的客戶群（雲端供應商和服務提供者）的視角來真正審視當前的環境是最有幫助的。所以從雲端提供者開始。他們顯然在建設網路方面處於領先地位，以支持雲端和人工智慧相關流量的預期成長。

Specifically, they are investing in their network architectures from subsea cables to long-haul routes to data center connectivity, essentially to add capacity with the most efficient use of space and power. Our leading technology best addresses these key requirements. And combined with our deep and expanding relationships with cloud providers, our business with this customer segment is strong and getting stronger in all aspects.

具體來說，他們正在投資從海底電纜到長途線路再到資料中心連接的網路架構，本質上是為了透過最有效地利用空間和電力來增加容量。我們的領先技術最好地滿足這些關鍵要求。結合我們與雲端供應商的深厚且不斷擴大的關係，我們與該客戶群的業務非常強勁，並且在各個方面都在不斷增強。

In Q3, we secured new wins with major cloud provider customers, spanning terrestrial, submarine and coherent pluggable applications, the majority driven by preparations for the expected growth in AI and cloud traffic. For the same reason, we are seeing a growing market opportunity for us amongst the expanding set of cloud players, including data center operators and companies that offer a range of cloud applications and cloud infrastructure services.

在第三季度，我們與主要雲端供應商客戶取得了新的勝利，涵蓋陸地、海底和相干可插拔應用程序，其中大部分是由於為人工智慧和雲端流量的預期增長做好了準備。出於同樣的原因，我們在不斷擴大的雲端參與者中看到了不斷增長的市場機會，包括資料中心營運商和提供一系列雲端應用程式和雲端基礎設施服務的公司。

And we have, in fact, been winning an increasing number of these deals with these customers over the past several quarters. Now moving to service providers. Overall, our pipeline with service providers globally continues to increase, and we are winning significant deals, including many new logos. For example, in Q3, we secured new customers in India, South Asia, Germany, Scandinavia and several new ones across North America.

事實上，在過去的幾個季度中，我們與這些客戶贏得了越來越多的此類交易。現在轉向服務提供者。總體而言，我們與全球服務提供者的管道持續增加，並且我們正在贏得重大交易，包括許多新徽標。例如，在第三季度，我們在印度、南亞、德國、斯堪的納維亞半島和北美的幾個新客戶獲得了新客戶。

In addition, MOFN activity, which we mentioned last quarter, remains strong with 4 major wins in Q3. And just as a reminder, with MOFN, telecom service providers build advanced optical networks and lease fiber pairs to cloud providers, really enabling them to quickly expand their reach and better service their customers. I would say that while these wins bode incredibly well over the longer term, our current results continue to reflect the challenges related to the timing and volume of service provider orders.

此外，我們上季度提到的 MOFN 活動依然強勁，在第三季取得了 4 場重大勝利。提醒一下，透過 MOFN，電信服務供應商可以建立先進的光纖網路並向雲端供應商租賃光纖對，真正使他們能夠快速擴大覆蓋範圍並更好地為客戶提供服務。我想說，雖然從長遠來看，這些勝利預示著令人難以置信的好兆頭，但我們目前的結果繼續反映了與服務提供者訂單的時間和數量相關的挑戰。

Specifically in North America, we have started to see the purchasing patterns of service providers come back into more of a normal balance, as they continue to deploy inventory buildup from prior periods. Obviously, this recovery remains gradual and will take several more quarters to play through completely, but we are absolutely seeing clear evidence of improvement here.

特別是在北美，我們已經開始看到服務提供者的採購模式恢復到正常平衡，因為他們繼續部署前期累積的庫存。顯然，這種復甦仍然是漸進的，需要幾個季度才能完全恢復，但我們絕對看到了明顯的改善證據。

Further, with respect to international service providers, cautious spending persists and particularly in Europe, related to macroeconomic, geopolitical concerns as well as industry structure issues. As a result, we expect the recovery in order volumes from international service providers to generally lag that of our North American counterparts.

此外，就國際服務提供者而言，由於宏觀經濟、地緣政治擔憂以及行業結構問題，謹慎的支出持續存在，尤其是在歐洲。因此，我們預期國際服務供應商的訂單量復甦將普遍落後於北美同業。

With that in talking about the markets, I want to move to a discussion of our portfolio. And specifically, the technology advantages that we have in the market today as well as our market expansion opportunities from our innovation leadership.

在談論市場時，我想談談我們的投資組合。具體來說，我們在當今市場上擁有的技術優勢以及我們的創新領導力所帶來的市場擴張機會。

In summary, our optical portfolio has never been stronger with our industry-leading coherent modem technology, optical line systems and automation and network control software. Starting with our coherent modems and our latest generation WaveLogic 6 technology.

總之，憑藉著業界領先的相干調變解調器技術、光線路系統以及自動化和網路控制軟體，我們的光學產品組合變得前所未有的強大。從我們的相干調變解調器和最新一代的 WaveLogic 6 技術開始。

Last week, I think many of you saw that we achieved the world's first 1.6 terabit wavelength data transmission across some 470 kilometers in a live network with our customer, Arilion. This is a clear demonstration that our WaveLogic 6 Xtreme technology the first of its kind in the world to leverage 3-nanometer technology in a telecom application can deliver unprecedented capacity and performance, setting a new benchmark for the industry. We expect to benefit from a considerable time to market lead with our 1.6 terabit solution, particularly given that no other competitor has even announced plans for a solution beyond 1.2 terabit, and we already have orders from 23 customers for WaveLogic 6, a list that continues to grow, and we will recognize revenue in Q4 as we begin shipping. As II traffic demand increase and do become more distributed, line systems that are reliable, maximize capacity on fiber and most importantly, minimize power are critical to forward-looking network architectures.

上週，我想你們很多人都看到我們與客戶 Arilion 在即時網路中實現了世界上第一個 1.6 太比特波長資料傳輸，跨越約 470 公里。這清楚地表明，我們的 WaveLogic 6 Xtreme 技術是世界上第一個在電信應用中利用 3 奈米技術的技術，可以提供前所未有的容量和性能，為業界樹立了新的基準。我們預計將受益於我們的1.6 太比特解決方案的相當長的上市時間，特別是考慮到沒有其他競爭對手宣布超過1.2 太比特解決方案的計劃，並且我們已經收到了23 個客戶的WaveLogic 6 訂單，這個名單還在持續成長，我們將在第四季開始出貨時確認收入。隨著 II 流量需求的增加並且變得更加分散，可靠的線路系統、最大化光纖容量以及最重要的是最小化功耗對於前瞻性網路架構至關重要。

For several years, we have been closely collaborating with leading cloud providers on the design of that next-generation line system. The result is our reconfigurable line system platform, often referred to as RLS. It is the industry's leading open line system that can manage bandwidth-intensive applications with greater scale, density and programmability, all while consuming less space and, of course, power.

多年來，我們一直與領先的雲端供應商密切合作，設計下一代線路系統。結果就是我們的可重構線路系統平台，通常稱為 RLS。它是業界領先的開放線路系統，可以以更大的規模、密度和可編程性管理頻寬密集型應用，同時消耗更少的空間，當然還有功耗。

As a result, RLS is now being deployed by all of the major cloud providers as well as a growing number of service providers. In fact, it has quickly become the industry's line system of choice to form the foundation of their AI-optimized network architectures. And accordingly, we expect orders and revenue for RLS to increase over the coming quarters, which lays further track, quite literally, for future business with capacity adds over time.

因此，RLS 現在已被所有主要雲端供應商以及越來越多的服務供應商所部署。事實上，它已迅速成為業界首選的線路系統，構成其人工智慧優化的網路架構的基礎。因此，我們預計 RLS 的訂單和收入在未來幾季將會增加，這為未來業務隨著時間的推移而增加產能奠定了進一步的基礎。

Finally, let me talk about our Navigator Network Control suite, the most advanced network control software in the industry today. Some of you may remember this by its former name MCP. As network architectures evolve to meet bandwidth demand driven by AI and cloud-based applications, they are also obviously growing in complexity. As a result, the need to automate the management and control of these networks has never been greater. Our Navigator Network control suite is designed to do just that. And it is the first and currently the only domain controller based on a micro services architecture to optimize scale and performance.

最後，讓我談談我們的 Navigator 網路控制套件，它是當今業界最先進的網路控制軟體。你們有些人可能還記得它以前的名稱 MCP。隨著網路架構不斷發展以滿足人工智慧和基於雲端的應用程式驅動的頻寬需求，它們的複雜性也大幅增加。因此，對這些網路進行自動化管理和控制的需求從未如此強烈。我們的 Navigator Network 控制套件就是為此而設計的。它是第一個也是目前唯一一個基於微服務架構來最佳化規模和效能的網域控制器。

It basically provides a single view across all network layers. Optical Ethernet and IP to coordinate life cycle network operations, all within a single software system. Moving on from our Optical foundation technologies. And with respect to our market expansion opportunities, we are seeing a growing and incremental opportunity inside and around the data center.

它基本上提供了跨所有網路層的單一視圖。光纖乙太網路和 IP 可以協調生命週期網路運營，所有這些都在一個軟體系統內進行。繼續我們的光學基礎技術。就我們的市場擴張機會而言，我們看到資料中心內部和周圍的機會不斷增長和增量。

Specifically, our foundational optical technologies can be leveraged in a variety of form factors, including pluggables and high-speed interconnect technologies, really to address a range of consumption models. In pluggables, we already have several significant wins. In fact, we're ramping revenue for 400 CR at cloud providers for around the data center applications. specifically really short-reach data center interconnect.

具體來說，我們的基礎光學技術可以用於各種外形尺寸，包括可插拔和高速互連技術，真正解決一系列消費模式的問題。在可插拔技術方面，我們已經取得了幾項重大勝利。事實上，我們正​​在為資料中心應用程式的雲端供應商增加 400 CR 的收入。特別是短距離資料中心互連。

I would remind everybody that we've now won three of the top four cloud providers for 400 CR, and as we mentioned last quarter, we are also the recipient of the first 800 ZR award by any major cloud provider. In looking at opportunities for our interconnect portfolio inside the data center, we are collaborating closely with several cloud customers and ecosystem partners in this area, and expect this opportunity to develop and mature over time.

我想提醒大家，我們現在已經贏得了 400 CR 四大雲端供應商中的三個，正如我們上季度提到的，我們也是所有主要雲端供應商的第一個 800 ZR 獎項的獲得者。在尋找資料中心內部互連產品組合的機會時，我們正在與該領域的多個雲端客戶和生態系統合作夥伴密切合作，並期望這一機會隨著時間的推移而不斷發展和成熟。

We are also gaining traction in our market expansion opportunities around broadband access and coherent ramping. In broadband access, as public funding is distributed, which admittedly is taking longer than expected, we would look forward to providing more customers a modular and open XGS PON solution. This is grounded in the competitive advantage that we have with our optical technology and is a cost-effective, flexible and sustainable OLT solution, that can address residential, enterprise and mobility use cases.

我們也在寬頻存取和一致提升方面的市場擴張機會獲得了關注。在寬頻存取方面，隨著公共資金的分配，這確實需要比預期更長的時間，我們期待為更多客戶提供模組化和開放的 XGS PON 解決方案。這是基於我們光學技術的競爭優勢，是一種經濟高效、靈活且可持續的 OLT 解決方案，可解決住宅、企業和移動用例。

In coherent routing, the growing need for scale and cost efficiency across network domains to support increased traffic flows from new applications will continue to drive customers to converge the IP in optical as we believe, over time in the metro. We are well positioned to support them with our purpose-built coherent aggregation routers, -- so in summary, I'd say that we delivered a strong performance in Q3, and we remain encouraged by the improving industry dynamics.

在相干路由中，對跨網路域的規模和成本效率的需求不斷增長，以支援新應用程式增加的流量，這將繼續推動客戶將IP整合到光纖中，正如我們所相信的那樣，隨著時間的推移，在城域網路中。我們有能力透過專門建立的相干聚合路由器來支援他們，所以總而言之，我想說我們在第三季度取得了強勁的業績，並且我們仍然對不斷改善的行業動態感到鼓舞。

Clearly continue to be strong. Spending dynamics among our North American service providers are gradually improving, but our market leadership driven by the strength of our innovation and time-to-market advantage will continue to drive share gains and open up new opportunities over time.

顯然繼續保持強勢。我們的北美服務供應商的支出動態正在逐步改善，但我們的創新實力和上市時間優勢所驅動的市場領導地位將繼續推動份額成長，並隨著時間的推移開闢新的機會。

With that, I'll turn it over to Jim.

有了這個，我會把它交給吉姆。

Thank you, Gary. Good morning, everyone. As Gary stated, we delivered strong fiscal third quarter financial results. Total revenue in Q3 was (technical difficulty) This included two 10% customers, one cloud provider and one service provider. Adjusted gross margin was 43.7%. Q3 adjusted operating expense was $336 million. Book-to-bill was greater than one as we expected. With respect to profitability measures in Q3, we delivered adjusted operating margin of 8%, adjusted net income of $51 million and adjusted EPS of $0.35 per share.

謝謝你，加里。大家早安。正如加里所說，我們第三季的財務表現強勁。第三季的總收入為（技術難度），其中包括兩家 10% 的客戶、一家雲端供應商和一家服務供應商。調整後毛利率為43.7%。第三季調整後營運費用為 3.36 億美元。正如我們預期的那樣，訂單出貨量大於 1。就第三季的獲利能力指標而言，我們的調整後營業利潤率為 8%，調整後淨利潤為 5,100 萬美元，調整後每股收益為 0.35 美元。

In addition, we used $159 million in cash for operations. We have been engaged in a strategic realignment of our supply chain activities, including improvements in processes and systems as well as changes in our vendor relationships to improve resilience.

此外，我們還使用了 1.59 億美元的現金用於營運。我們一直在對供應鏈活動進行策略調整，包括改善流程和系統以及改變供應商關係以提高彈性。

As a part of this transition and to facilitate inventory movement across our vendor base, we made a cash advance of approximately $175 million to one of our vendors which will be recovered over the next few quarters. Adjusted EBITDA in Q3 was $99 million.

作為這項轉型的一部分，為了促進整個供應商的庫存流動，我們向其中一個供應商預付了約 1.75 億美元的現金，這筆資金將在未來幾季收回。第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 9,900 萬美元。

Finally, we ended the quarter with approximately $1.2 billion in cash and investments. We repurchased approximately 600,000 shares for $29 million during the quarter. And we continue to target the repurchase of $250 million in shares by the end of fiscal year '24. Turning to some portfolio highlights from the quarter. In optical, WaveLogic 5 traction continues. We shipped close to 12,000 WaveLogic 5 Extreme modems in Q3 and added another 12 customers none of which are new logos for Ciena.

最後，本季末我們擁有約 12 億美元的現金和投資。本季我們以 2,900 萬美元的價格回購了約 60 萬股股票。我們的目標繼續是到 24 財年末回購價值 2.5 億美元的股票。轉向本季的一些投資組合亮點。在光學領域，WaveLogic 5 的吸引力仍在持續。我們在第三季出貨了近 12,000 個 WaveLogic 5 Extreme 數據機，並增加了另外 12 個客戶，這些客戶都不是 Ciena 的新標誌。

We also continued to gain momentum with WaveLogic 5 Nano, ZR and ZR Plus, shipping a record number of pluggables in the quarter for revenue. We added 18 new WaveLogic 5 Nano customers for a total of 122 to date. Also in optical, WaveServer revenue in Q3 was up 29% year-over-year and 25% sequentially, with seven new customers in the quarter. Our routing and switching business continues to gain momentum. In Q3, we secured nine new broadband access customers across Europe and the US increasing our global broadband customer count to more than 65 and our coherent routing solution, which leverages our coherent aggregation routers in combination with our WaveLogic 5 Nano pluggable and Navigator Network control suite is also increasingly being selected by customers to replace outdated legacy IP solution.

我們也持續透過 WaveLogic 5 Nano、ZR 和 ZR Plus 保持成長勢頭，本季可插拔產品的出貨量創歷史新高。我們新增了 18 家 WaveLogic 5 Nano 客戶，迄今為止客戶總數已達 122 家。同樣在光學領域，WaveServer 第三季營收年增 29%，季增 25%，本季新增了 7 位客戶。我們的路由和交換業務繼續保持強勁勢頭。第三季度，我們在歐洲和美國獲得了9 個新的寬頻存取客戶，使我們的全球寬頻客戶數量增加到65 個以上，我們的相干路由解決方案利用了我們的相干聚合路由器與WaveLogic 5 Nano可插拔和Navigator 網路控制套件的結合也越來越多地被客戶選擇取代過時的傳統 IP 解決方案。

Other portfolio highlights from the quarter include another good quarter for Platform Software and Services with revenue up 5% year-over-year and Blue Planet revenue nearly doubled year-over-year. Turning now to guidance. For the fiscal fourth quarter, we expect to deliver revenue in a range of $1.06 billion to $1.14 billion. This would put us at about $4 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2024, in line with the guidance we provided in June.

本季的其他投資組合亮點包括平台軟體和服務又一個良好的季度，營收年增 5%，而 Blue Planet 營收年增近一倍。現在轉向指導。我們預計第四財季的營收將在 10.6 億美元至 11.4 億美元之間。這將使我們 2024 財年的收入達到約 40 億美元，與我們 6 月提供的指導一致。

We expect Q4 adjusted gross margin to be in the low to mid-40s range. Gary spoke about our reconfigurable line system, which has the combination of intelligence and high capacity that makes it ideal for next-gen AI-driven network, and we're selling along. This has a near-term effect on our gross margins. But as we sell the modems to provide capacity on new brands, our margin will improve.

我們預計第四季度調整後毛利率將在 40 多美元左右。加里談到了我們的可重構線路系統，該系統集智慧和高容量於一體，非常適合下一代人工智慧驅動的網絡，我們正在銷售。這對我們的毛利率有短期影響。但當我們銷售調變解調器來為新品牌提供容量時，我們的利潤率將會提高。

And we expect adjusted operating expense to be approximately $350 million. Looking ahead to fiscal year 2025, as this is our normal practice, we will provide a detailed view of our expectations when we report our Q4 results in December. With that said, we previously indicated that fiscal 2024 would be a transition year following a few years that were impacted by the unusual amounts of the pandemic that led to supply chain challenges and a subsequent snapback, resulting in outsized growth in fiscal 2023.

我們預計調整後的營運費用約為 3.5 億美元。展望 2025 財年，由於這是我們的正常做法，我們將在 12 月報告第四季業績時提供詳細的預期。話雖如此，我們之前表示，2024 財年將是一個過渡年，此前幾年受到了異常嚴重的疫情影響，導致供應鏈挑戰和隨後的經濟復甦，導致 2023 財年出現大幅增長。

We have also said that we believe using a 6% to 8% compound annual growth rate is the best representation of our long-term revenue growth rate, which is faster than market growth based on current forecast. This range, by the way, matches our revenue growth rate over a long period of years. We continue to believe that this is a reasonable and balanced view for the long term keeping in mind that any 1 year's growth rate can be outside of that range.

我們也表示，我們認為使用6%至8%的複合年增長率是我們長期收入成長率的最佳代表，根據目前的預測，這比市場成長更快。順便說一句，這個範圍與我們多年來的收入成長率相符。我們仍然認為，從長遠來看，這是一個合理且平衡的觀點，請記住，任何一年的成長率都可能超出該範圍。

Before we conclude our prepared remarks, I'll say a few words about my planned retirement. We understand that the investment community likes to have advanced notice of the departure of a senior executive, and we are providing that notice today. Ciena is a great company. We have the best optical technology in the world, and our lead on the competition is growing. We also have a group of passionate and talented employees all over the globe that makes Ciena a great place to work.

在我們結束準備好的演講之前，我想談談我的退休計畫。我們了解投資界希望提前收到高階主管離職的通知，我們今天就發出了這項通知。 Ciena 是一家很棒的公司。我們擁有世界上最好的光學技術，我們在競爭中的領先地位正在不斷擴大。我們還在全球擁有一群充滿熱情和才華橫溢的員工，這使 Ciena 成為一個理想的工作場所。

It has been an honor to serve as CFO. But more than that, it has been a tremendous learning experience, and it will continue to be since I will be at Ciena for another year. We will start a search for Ciena's next CFO immediately, and I will work closely with my replacement to ensure a smooth transition.

擔任財務長是我的榮幸。但更重要的是，這是一次巨大的學習經歷，而且自從我在 Ciena 又待了一年後，這種情況還將持續下去。我們將立即開始尋找 Ciena 的下一任財務官，我將與我的繼任者密切合作，以確保順利過渡。

To close, we delivered a strong Q3, we're confident in achieving our fourth quarter guidance based on the momentum we're seeing in our business and the wins we've discussed. We are optimistic about positioning and capture long-term opportunities and deliver profitable growth, expanding into the new areas of available market over the coming years.

最後，我們交付了強勁的第三季業績，基於我們在業務中看到的勢頭和我們討論的勝利，我們有信心實現第四季度的指導。我們對定位和抓住長期機會、實現盈利成長、在未來幾年擴展到可用市場的新領域持樂觀態度。

With that, Chris, we'll take questions from the sell-side analysts.

克里斯，接下來我們將回答賣方分析師的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的梅塔·馬歇爾。

Jim, just as you mentioned on the call, you had talked about kind of 6% to 8% kind of being a good long-term guide. Just as you look at fiscal '25 estimates as they are and they are within that range, is there a comfort that you have with kind of fiscal '25 estimates of the Street as they are?

吉姆，正如您在電話中提到的那樣，您談到 6% 到 8% 是一個很好的長期指導。正如您查看 25 財年的預估，並且它們在該範圍內一樣，您對華爾街的 25 財年預估是否感到放心？

And then maybe a second question for Gary. Just on the pluggables wins that you guys have had noting that you said that a lot of those were very short reach. Do you view the pluggables business that you're getting as additive to the business currently?

然後也許是加里的第二個問題。只是關於可插拔的勝利，你們注意到你們說其中很多都是非常短的。您是否認為目前獲得的可插拔業務是對業務的補充？

We won't comment on the '25 estimates out there today. I will say that we feel great about our position in the market. We think 6% to 8% is a good long-term growth rate. It's going to vary from that in any given year as we've seen in the past. And I think we're going to continue to take share. So all of those things are good for us. But we don't want to make a comment about '25 at this point in time. We just finished Q3.

我們不會對今天發布的 25 年預測發表評論。我想說的是，我們對自己的市場地位感到非常滿意。我們認為6%到8%是一個不錯的長期成長率。正如我們過去所看到的那樣，它將與任何特定年份有所不同。我認為我們將繼續分享。所以所有這些事情對我們都有好處。但我們現在不想對 '25 發表評論。我們剛完成第三季。

So Meta, on the second part of the question, the very short answer is yes. We view pluggables as an incremental TAM opportunity for Ciena. We've been most consistent about this. Most of that is going to go into the short reach where we really don't have much revenues at all right now. So that's basically it. We do not sit cannibalizing long-haul, submarine, where they're very complex and high-performance system requirements. We're not seeing that. On the metro DCI, which is less than 10% of the total optical market, by the way. We are seeing, again, incremental opportunities for us and any cannibalization would be really into the metro part of that DCI. We're not seeing that gather shape and any cannibalization will be there is more than major by the incremental pluggable opportunity in the short reach and by the overall growing marketplace.

所以 Meta，關於問題的第二部分，非常簡短的答案是肯定的。我們將可插拔視為 Ciena 的增量 TAM 機會。我們在這一點上一直是最一致的。其中大部分將進入短距離領域，我們現在確實沒有太多收入。基本上就是這樣。我們不會蠶食長途潛水艇，因為它們非常複雜且需要高性能的系統。我們沒有看到這一點。順便說一下，城域 DCI 佔整個光學市場的比例不到 10%。我們再次看到，我們的機會不斷增加，任何蠶食都將真正進入 DCI 的地鐵部分。我們沒有看到聚集形狀和任何蠶食將是透過短距離增量可插拔機會和整體成長市場來實現的。

Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

西蒙·利奧波德和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

First of all, Jim, congratulations, and thank you for giving us a 1-year notice. Appreciate that. I hate being surprised. And we'll miss you. .

首先，吉姆，恭喜你，並感謝你提前一年通知我們。很欣賞這一點。我討厭感到驚訝。我們會想念你的。 。

So on the questions, first of all, I wanted to see if you could put some dimensions around the MOFN opportunity you've talked about. Given that it's sort of buried in the telco, but it's somewhat indicative of cloud trends, that's my first question. As a follow-up, I wanted to see if you could comment on your broadband opportunities in light of announcement yesterday from one of your competitors winning exclusivity or at least claiming exclusivity with a Tier 1 US operator.

因此，關於問題，首先，我想看看您是否可以圍繞您所談到的 MOFN 機會提出一些維度。鑑於它有點隱藏在電信公司中，但它在某種程度上表明了雲端趨勢，這是我的第一個問題。作為後續行動，我想看看您是否可以根據您的競爭對手之一昨天宣布的贏得獨家經營權或至少聲稱與美國一級運營商的獨家經營權來評論您的寬頻機會。

Simon, let me take the MOFN piece. It's increasingly becoming a larger part of our service provider piece in collaboration with the cloud providers around the globe, and it basically gives the cloud providers an opportunity to get to market quickly. Very often, they will define the architecture that they want delivered and they'll specify Ciena, and that's happening around the globe, particularly in places like India, which is obviously a large target market for the cloud providers.

西蒙，讓我拿一下 MOFN 的作品。它日益成為我們與全球雲端供應商合作的服務提供者的重要組成部分，它基本上為雲端提供者提供了快速進入市場的機會。很多時候，他們會定義他們想要交付的架構，並指定 Ciena，這種情況在全球範圍內發生，特別是在像印度這樣的地方，這顯然是雲端供應商的一個巨大目標市場。

It's difficult to get visibility to all of those deals, but I would sort of put a size on it, probably 10% to 15% of our total service provider business is actually MOFN in some way shed for. That would be sort of best view of it, which, together with our direct cloud provider business and the Subsea business is getting us in that 40% to 50% of our total business really is cloud, both direct and sort of indirect. That's our best sort of perspective on it.

很難了解所有這些交易，但我會對其進行估算，我們服務提供者總業務的 10% 到 15% 實際上是 MOFN 以某種方式流失的。這將是對此的最佳看法，加上我們的直接雲端供應商業務和海底業務，我們總業務的 40% 到 50% 確實是雲，無論是直接的還是間接的。這是我們對此的最佳看法。

And very often, in various countries, there will be a combination of different approaches by the cloud players. Some may be dark fiber, they like themselves. Some may be provision on just normal capacity and some will be on the dedicated MOFN deals, which we're increasingly seeing a lot of the cloud providers lean towards.

通常，在不同的國家，雲廠商會結合使用不同的方法。有些可能是暗纖維，他們喜歡自己。有些可能僅提供正常容量，有些可能基於專門的 MOFN 交易，我們越來越常看到許多雲端供應商傾向於這種方式。

And we are kind of uniquely placed around that given our global footprint in most of the major carriers around the world, our deep relationships with the cloud providers and particularly the highest market share of all of the submarine cable piece as well. So you put all of that together and we're somewhat uniquely positioned to address that market.

鑑於我們在全球大多數主要營運商中的足跡、我們與雲端供應商的深厚關係，尤其是所有海底電纜部分的最高市場份額，我們在這方面處於獨特的地位。因此，將所有這些放在一起，我們在應對該市場方面具有獨特的優勢。

And then timing on the forward-looking perspective on the broadband access business, I'd say this, obviously, our intentions in the marketplace is not to an individual customer, it's to a broad market opportunity. We're very excited about the value proposition that we're bringing to the marketplace in terms of virtualizing the OLT, integrating that into our core network routing, adding that capability to our management suite that we talked about with Navigator, it's resonating well in the marketplace, we are up to 65 customer wins now, and we're hiding quarter-by-quarter to that count.

然後從寬頻接取業務的前瞻性角度來看，我想說的是，顯然，我們在市場上的意圖不是針對單一客戶，而是針對廣泛的市場機會。我們對在虛擬化 OLT 方面向市場推出的價值主張感到非常興奮，將其整合到我們的核心網路路由中，將該功能添加到我們與 Navigator 討論的管理套件中，它在市場上，我們現在贏得了多達65 個客戶，我們正在逐季度隱藏這一數字。

So it's much by broader play than an individual customer. And obviously, we're not going to comment on one individual customer anyway. The other thing I'd say, though, is in the short term, it's obviously swimming right into the dynamics that are going on in the service provider space. So there's a bit of a headwind there, and probably accentuated a bit by the delay in the funding. So there's been a bit of short-term headwinds, but we're quite excited about the long-term potential.

因此，這比個人客戶更廣泛的發揮。顯然，無論如何我們都不會評論某一個人客戶。不過，我想說的另一件事是，從短期來看，它顯然正在融入服務提供者領域正在發生的動態。因此，存在一些阻力，而且資金的延遲可能會加劇這種阻力。因此，短期存在一些阻力，但我們對長期潛力感到非常興奮。

Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

摩根大通的薩米克‧查特吉 (Samik Chatterjee)。

Maybe for the first one, if I can sort of ask you more about the order commentary that you had in your prepared remarks. You mentioned the book-to-bill tracking above one, which I think would largely be seen as positive from sort of what your expectations for last quarter, but you also sort of highlighted the more sort of limited improvement or a slow recovery you're seeing with the service providers, particularly internationally.

也許對於第一個，我是否可以向您詢問更多有關您在準備好的發言中的訂單評論的信息。您在上面提到了訂單到賬單跟踪，我認為從您對上季度的預期來看，這在很大程度上被視為積極的，但您也強調了您所面臨的更有限的改善或緩慢的復甦與服務提供者合作，尤其是國際服務提供者。

So I mean, can you just parse that out a bit in terms of the improvement orders between service providers and cloud and did sort of the service provider order improvement come in below your expectations. And I don't know if you ever provided like in terms of the service provide exposure do you have, how much is -- how much should we think is North America versus international? And I have a follow-up.

所以我的意思是，您能否從服務提供者和雲端之間的改進訂單方面稍微分析一下，並且服務提供者訂單的改進是否低於您的預期。我不知道您是否曾經提供過類似的服務提供曝光度，我們認為北美與國際相比應該有多少？我有一個後續行動。

Clearly, our current order flows are driven mostly by the web scalers. But we do expect some improvement particularly on North American service providers in the near term, and we expect improvement in the international service providers next year. Just as a point of reference, our backlog grew to about $2.1 billion at the end of Q3. We think our order flow in Q4 will be at maybe slightly below our revenue cost. So our backlog, we expect at the end of this year will be $2 billion. We think that it will be a little heavier than it is today around service providers because we do expect some improvement in their order rates.

顯然，我們目前的訂單流主要是由網路擴展器驅動的。但我們確實預計短期內會出現一些改善，特別是北美服務提供者的改善，並且我們預計明年國際服務提供者的改善。作為參考，我們的積壓訂單在第三季末成長至約 21 億美元。我們認為第四季的訂單流量可能略低於我們的收入成本。因此，我們預計今年底的積壓訂單將達到 20 億美元。我們認為服務提供者的情況會比現在重一些，因為我們確實預期他們的訂單率會有所改善。

And for my follow-up, we all sort of continue to see this robust investment or CapEx cycle from the web scalers and you talked about that being driven by your preparing for AI as well. How should we think about how much of that investment from the webscalers will be towards the pluggables or short reach versus really directed more towards your systems portfolio and sort of traditional portfolio that you have, how you're thinking about where does the AI preparedness benefit really come through on the portfolio side. .

在我的後續行動中，我們都繼續看到來自網路擴展器的強勁投資或資本支出週期，你談到這也是由你為人工智慧所做的準備所驅動的。我們應該如何考慮網路縮放器的投資有多少將用於可插拔或短距離，而不是真正更多地針對您的系統組合和您擁有的傳統組合，您如何考慮人工智慧準備在哪裡受益真正在投資組合方面取得了成功。 。

Yes. I think if you think about the pluggable piece, separate buying plugs to stick in other devices other than a whole end-to-end system, we've been pretty consistent with what we said that we think that, that is a place that plays in the short-reach metro DCI. And we also said that it would take longer for it to be a material piece of the industry or the business. And I think that's played out pretty accurately and we're starting to see that come through in terms of financial results for us as we ship 100 gig plugs into that application.

是的。我認為，如果您考慮可插拔部件，單獨購買插頭以插入整個端到端系統以外的其他設備，我們與我們所說的非常一致，我們認為這是一個可以發揮作用的地方在短程地鐵DCI 中。我們也說過，它需要更長的時間才能成為行業或業務的重要組成部分。我認為這已經非常準確地實現了，當我們向該應用程式交付 100 個千兆插頭時，我們開始看到我們的財務表現得到了體現。

And again, as Gary said, that is net incremental for us because we largely have been exposed to that part of the web-scale networks. I think the broader spend, though, I remind you that we participate with them on submarine applications on their core network applications and then back into the service providers through the multi exposure that we have. In those cases, those are large complex networks. And the winning hand on those comes back to optical line systems and the control systems that go with them.

正如加里所說，這對我們來說是淨增量，因為我們很大程度上已經接觸到了網路規模網路的這一部分。不過，我認為更廣泛的支出，我提醒您，我們與他們一起參與其核心網絡應用程序的海底應用程序，然後通過我們擁有的多重曝光回到服務提供商。在這些情況下，這些都是大型複雜網路。而這些方面的致勝之道又回到了光學線路系統及其配套的控制系統。

And we think we have the best technology in all three of those dimensions. So we're going to continue to take our fair share of that spend opportunity out there.

我們認為我們在所有這三個方面都擁有最好的技術。因此，我們將繼續公平地分享這項支出機會。

Just add to that, the vast majority of spend will continue to be on optical systems, in the cloud space, the vast majority of spend because exactly Scott said, the complexity and the performance requirements of these large systems is what's driving their network traffic.

除此之外，絕大多數支出將繼續花在光學系統上，在雲端空間中，絕大多數支出是因為正如斯科特所說，這些大型系統的複雜性和效能要求是推動其網路流量的原因。

Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

阿米特·達裡亞納尼 (Amit Daryanani) 與 Evercore。

I have two as well. Maybe to start with your October quarter guide for gross margins in the low to mid-40%. I think you talked about you're seeing some mix impact by initially selling more line systems there. Could you just quantify what that impacted just like 100 to 200 basis points headwind, and then do you see that normalize in fiscal '25 as you start to sell more modems potentially? Or is there a longer duration to normalize that?

我也有兩個。也許可以從 10 月季度的毛利率指南開始，毛利率在 40% 的低至中水平。我想您談到您最初在那裡銷售更多的生產線系統，從而看到了一些混合影響。您能否量化一下這種影響，就像 100 到 200 個基點的逆風一樣，然後您是否認為隨著您開始銷售更多調製解調器，這種情況會在 25 財年正常化？或者是否需要更長的時間來使其正常化？

I won't comment about '25 today. But clearly, the portion of line systems that we're selling today is very heavily weighted, and that's resulting in a gross margin impact. It's at least a couple of hundred basis points. I mean, I can't give you an exact number, but it's at least that kind of number.

今天我不會評論'25'。但顯然，我們今天銷售的生產線系統部分的權重非常大，這對毛利率造成了影響。至少有幾百個基點。我的意思是，我無法給你一個確切的數字，但至少是這樣的數字。

Got it. And then on the telco side, you talked about just starting to see a recovery in North America and EMEA being macro-driven but a little bit weak. I wonder if you can just talk a little bit more about what you're seeing in APAC and India specifically when it comes to telco spending?.

知道了。然後在電信方面，您談到北美和歐洲、中東和非洲地區剛開始復甦，這是宏觀驅動的，但有點疲軟。我想知道您是否可以多談談您在亞太地區和印度所看到的情況，特別是在電信支出方面？

We're seeing strength in Asia Pacific, we've seen a number of wins, particularly in Southern Asia, places like Indonesia, Vietnam, et cetera. So we see that. And then new logos for us. We have very low market share there. So that's encouraging. In India, I think we're very bullish about India. We have number one market share there. We see good MOFN growth as obviously the cloud is very focused on it. It's a little bit cyclical. They're sort of recovering from the investment in all of the 5G pieces, but we are seeing a lot of activity. So as we look out for the next one to three years in India, again, we remain bullish. It was up a little bit sequentially quarter-to-quarter. It's going to have some ebbs and flows. But I think we're -- we think that we're on to a strong cycle over the next one to three years in India.

我們看到了亞太地區的實力，我們已經取得了許多勝利，特別是在南亞，如印尼、越南等地。所以我們看到了這一點。然後是我們的新標誌。我們在那裡的市佔率非常低。所以這是令人鼓舞的。在印度，我認為我們非常看好印度。我們在那裡擁有第一的市場份額。我們看到 MOFN 的良好成長，因為顯然雲非常關注它。這有點週期性。他們正在從所有 5G 設備的投資中恢復過來，但我們看到了很多活動。因此，當我們展望印度未來一到三年時，我們仍然看好。每季環比略有上升。它將會有一些潮起潮落。但我認為我們認為印度未來一到三年將進入一個強勁的周期。

And Amit, I want to correct something I just said, in Q3, it's at least 100 basis points, not 200 basis points.

阿米特，我想糾正我剛才所說的，在第三季度，至少是 100 個基點，而不是 200 個基點。

Jim, congrats on the retirement.

吉姆，恭喜你退休。

Tim Long with Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的提姆朗。

Congratulations for me too as well, Jim, we'll miss you. Yes, first one, if I could, then I have a follow-up. I understand you don't want to get too into fiscal '25 at this point. But Jim, you did make some comments about kind of looking a little bit more normal or maybe Gary did after a strong '23 and correction here in '24. When we look at next year or just going forward, do we think we're back towards more typical linearity in the business just as a go-forward comment? And then I have a follow-up after that.

也祝賀我，吉姆，我們會想念你的。是的，第一個，如果可以的話，我會有一個後續。我知道您現在不想過度關注 25 財年。但是吉姆，你確實發表了一些關於看起來更正常一點的評論，或者也許加里在 23 年的強勁表現和 24 年的修正之後做了一些評論。當我們展望明年或展望未來時，我們是否認為我們會像前瞻性評論一樣回到業務中更典型的線性？之後我會跟進。

You're referring to seasonal linearity, Tim?

你指的是季節性線性，提姆？

Yes, seasonality, yes.

是的，季節性，是的。

Our business used to be very predictable as to its seasonal nature because our business with mainly service providers. With the increase in the sales that we make to web scalers, as Gary said, it's 40% to 50% of our business is driven by their activity. We've become a much less predictable company in terms of our revenue seasonally, we've had very strong first quarters.

我們的業務過去的季節性非常可預測，因為我們的業務主要與服務提供者合作。正如加里所說，隨著我們對網路擴展商的銷售額增加，我們 40% 到 50% 的業務是由他們的活動推動的。就我們的季節性收入而言，我們已經成為一家更難以預測的公司，我們的第一季非常強勁。

And typically in the past, our third and fourth quarter were our biggest quarters. that can change with the web scalers. So really, I can't call our seasonality right now. And by the way, we haven't even completed our plan for next year. So I don't know what it's going to be.

通常在過去，我們的第三季和第四季是我們最大的季度。這可能會隨著網路縮放器而改變。所以說實話，我現在還不能稱之為季節性。順便說一句，我們甚至還沒有完成明年的計劃。所以我不知道會發生什麼事。

Okay. Great. And then just kind of a two-part follow-up here. Two of the business lines looked a little big changes quarter-to-quarter. So for Blue Planet that jump -- is there just a big deal in there or some kind of seasonality? And similarly, the drop in routing and switching sequentially. So in either of those businesses where there's anything like kind of onetime in them? Or are these more normalized levels here? .

好的。偉大的。然後是一個由兩部分組成的後續行動。其中兩條業務線的季度變化看起來有點大。那麼對於藍色星球來說，這種跳躍是有什麼大問題還是有某種季節性？同樣，路由和交換也依序下降。那麼，在這兩個行業中，有沒有類似一次性的事情呢？或者這些是更正常化的水平嗎？ 。

So firstly, on Blue Planet, Tim, basically doubled from this time last year, but off a relatively small base. We've been basically focusing Blue Planet on very specific applications around inventory orchestration. And that's been increasingly successful. So it's not just one big deal. We're very encouraged by what we're seeing with Blue Planet and we'll talk more about that during the coming quarters.

首先，在藍色星球上，提姆的數量基本上比去年這個時候翻了一番，但基數相對較小。我們基本上將藍色星球的重點放在庫存編排方面的非常具體的應用程式上。而且這種做法越來越成功。所以這不僅僅是一件大事。我們對藍色星球所看到的一切感到非常鼓舞，我們將在接下來的幾季中更多地討論這一點。

You saw the recent announcement with Lumin, which is, I think, good evidence of that, but we're seeing broad engagements across a more focused set of applications from Blue Planet, including things like network assurance. On the routing and switching, really, I think that's more a function of the overall service provider challenges. And I think we are continuing to make good progress on routing and switching. We're seeing new logos. But I think really it's held back right now by the overall service provider challenges, particularly internationally.

您看到了最近與 Lumin 的公告，我認為這是很好的證據，但我們看到 Blue Planet 的一系列更集中的應用程式進行了廣泛的合作，包括網路保證等。事實上，在路由和交換方面，我認為這更多的是整體服務提供者挑戰的一個功能。我認為我們在路由和交換方面繼續取得良好進展。我們看到了新的標誌。但我認為，目前整體服務提供者面臨的挑戰確實阻礙了它的發展，特別是在國際上。

North America, I think, as we've talked about, I think, is gradually improving. We're seeing clear evidence of that, including routing and switching. The challenge is more internationally than particularly in Europe.

我認為，正如我們所討論的，北美正在逐漸改善。我們看到了明顯的證據，包括路由和交換。挑戰更多的是國際性的，而不是歐洲的。

George Notter with Jefferies.

喬治諾特和傑弗里斯。

I guess I wanted to ask about sort of the trend in your direct webscale revenue. You've had couple of quarters in a row now that are a bit smaller relative to what was a couple of quarters of really, really strong web scale sales. So the narrative around AI, the narrative from you guys, I think, just sounds better and better and better.

我想我想問一下你們的直接網路規模收入的趨勢。現在已經連續幾季的銷售額相對於前幾季非常非常強勁的網路規模銷售額要小一些。因此，我認為，關於人工智慧的敘述，以及你們的敘述，聽起來越來越好。

And I'm kind of wondering what's causing that sort of step down versus the run rates you're at a couple of quarters ago. Is that inventory digestion, maybe it's a function of not seeing the whole picture and I've got to look more at your MOFN deals and sort of adjust for that. But how do you sort of explain that trajectory relative to the narrative? .

我有點想知道是什麼導致了與幾個季度前的運行率相比的這種下降。是庫存消化嗎，也許是因為看不到全貌，我必須更多地關注你們的 MOFN 交易並對此進行調整。但你如何解釋相對於敘事的軌跡呢？ 。

Yes, George. I think that the -- all of our business is going to be project-driven, including that with the web scalers and there are going to be ebbs and flows in their activity. So an increase or a decrease in any one given quarter does not necessarily make a trend. Clearly, as you've seen, though, our webscale business over time has grown from virtually nothing to directly between 25% and 30%. And as we said, MOFN plus submarine is another 15% maybe 10% to 15%. So we're getting up to 25%. .

是的，喬治。我認為，我們所有的業務都將是專案驅動的，包括網路擴展器，他們的活動將會有起有落。因此，任何一個季度的增加或減少並不一定會形成一種趨勢。顯然，正如您所看到的，隨著時間的推移，我們的網路規模業務已經從幾乎沒有成長到 25% 到 30% 之間。正如我們所說，MOFN 加上潛水艇是另外 15%，也許是 10% 到 15%。所以我們達到了 25%。 。

But I will say that one of the things we are seeing is that with the demand on network that the webscalers are putting, they can't do all the work themselves, even they can't do it on themselves. That's why they're turning to MOFN and MOFN has increased pretty significantly over the past year or two. And so that is something that adds to the picture and shows you that we're getting good growth with the webscalers.

但我要說的是，我們看到的一件事是，隨著網路擴展者對網路的需求，他們無法自己完成所有工作，甚至無法自己完成。這就是他們轉向 MOFN 的原因，而 MOFN 在過去一兩年成長相當顯著。因此，這增加了圖片並向您展示我們與網路縮放器一起獲得了良好的增長。

Got it. Great. And then just as a follow-up. You guys made a comment in the monologue about interconnect opportunities, I think, inside data centers and collaborating with several content providers. Could you talk a bit more about what the application is there and what exactly you guys are doing? .

知道了。偉大的。然後作為後續行動。我想，你們在獨白中評論了資料中心內部的互連機會以及與多家內容提供者的合作。您能多談談該應用程式是什麼以及您到底在做什麼嗎？ 。

First of all, George, when we talk about our interconnect business, there's really three parts to it. There is us selling our coherent mode of technology that plugs to outside of our system business. There's us selling our virtual alt plugs outside of our system business. And then there's the third one that you talked about, which is the opportunity of taking that technology and reapplying it inside the data center.

首先，喬治，當我們談論我們的互連業務時，它實際上分為三個部分。我們正在銷售我們的連貫技術模式，該模式可以插入我們的系統業務之外。我們在系統業務之外銷售虛擬替代插頭。然後是您談到的第三個，這是採用該技術並在資料中心內重新應用它的機會。

That third one is a longer-term opportunity. The first two are obviously shifting for revenue today. On that third one, the dynamic that we see is as the data rates between -- at a high level between GPUs increased as the distances that they have to communicate increase because of the constraints of power. And as the cloud providers start to look at things like optical switching as a way to provide interconnect at a lower cost and lower power footprint all those things push you to need higher performing optics to connect.

第三個是一個長期機會。如今，前兩者的收入顯然正在改變。在第三個方面，我們看到的動態是，GPU 之間的數據速率在高水準上隨著它們必須通訊的距離的增加而增加，因為功率的限制。隨著雲端供應商開始將光交換等技術視為以更低的成本和更低的功耗提供互連的一種方式，所有這些都促使您需要更高效能的光學元件來進行連接。

And the physics will dictate that at some point in time, today's existing technology is just not going to cut, it. and you're going to have to bring to bear the techniques that the WAN has seen an preparing for the last couple of decades is the analogy of when the WAN went from 10 gig to something greater than 10 gig. We firmly believe that's going to happen. The question is when, and at what technology space.

物理學將表明，在某個時間點，當今的現有技術將無法解決這個問題。您將必須採用 WAN 在過去幾十年中所採用的技術，就像 WAN 從 10 GB 發展到大於 10 GB 時的情況一樣。我們堅信這將會發生。問題是何時、在什麼技術空間。

So think of it at a really high level of taking those components, whether they be digital assist with ESPs or whether that be some of the capabilities that we have on analog digital and the electro-optics and applying it to just interconnect inside the data center interconnecting GPUs.

因此，從一個非常高的水平來考慮這些組件，無論它們是 ESP 的數位輔助，還是我們在模擬數位和電光方面擁有的一些功能，並將其應用於資料中心內部的互連互連 GPU。

Tal Liani with Bank of America.

美國銀行的塔爾·利亞尼。

I want to ask you two questions. Number one is cloud. So cloud was strong, and you did not participate in this debate of InfiniBand versus Ethernet. You were kind of external to that debate. So the question is, when you look at the cloud opportunity going forward and take a 3-year view, 5-year view, is the opportunity for you. First, is the deployment going to get stronger? Do you think the growth is going to be higher than what we've seen in the last 3 to 5 years in general? And.

我想問你兩個問題。第一個是雲。所以雲端很強大，而且你沒有參與 InfiniBand 與乙太網路的爭論。你有點局外人參與了這場辯論。所以問題是，當你審視未來的雲端機會並採取 3 年、5 年的觀點時，這就是你的機會。第一，部署會加強嗎？您認為成長速度會高於過去 3 到 5 年的整體成長速度嗎？和。

Second, is the opportunity for you getting bigger? Meaning, do you -- are you going to be in parts of the network that you were not there before. So you could see better growth in the next few years. So I have another question, but maybe we can start with the cloud because I think that it will -- it does define your stock and valuation, and I wanted to better understand kind of your participation there.

第二，你的機會有變大嗎？意思是，你是否會進入網路中以前不存在的部分？因此，您可以在未來幾年看到更好的成長。所以我還有另一個問題，但也許我們可以從雲端開始，因為我認為它確實會定義你的股票和估值，我想更了解你在那裡的參與情況。

Given the pace at which the cloud providers are building data centers. And given that there are an increasing number of web-scale players that are in the data set of business and building out between those data centers. It seems very likely that the webscalers are going to grow as a percentage of our business over the next several years. So yes, I think that's probably true.

鑑於雲端提供者建置資料中心的速度。鑑於業務資料集中有越來越多的網路規模參與者，並在這些資料中心之間進行建構。未來幾年，網路縮放器在我們業務中所佔的比例很可能會成長。所以是的，我認為這可能是真的。

Now are we going to participate in places that we don't participate, Yes, I believe we will. We -- as we said earlier, we don't really participate in the short-reach metro business that's just not in a place where we have won a lot of business. I think we will play in that space with our plugs -- as we said, we have 800 ZR win, and I think we'll have more of those. And it will be a short reach and long reach but short reach in particular.

現在我們是否要參與我們不參與的地方，是的，我相信我們會的。正如我們之前所說，我們並沒有真正參與短程地鐵業務，只是不在我們贏得大量業務的地方。我認為我們將在這個領域發揮我們的優勢——正如我們所說，我們贏得了 800 ZR，而且我認為我們將贏得更多。這將是一個短距離和長距離，但特別是短距離。

I also think there's a possibility inside the data center. Now that's further out, and we still have a lot of work to do to make sure that we can provide the technology that's going to be needed inside the data center. We don't know what the transition will occur. But we do believe that we'll have a good opportunity to play there. So yes, we're going to be in vain parts of the web scaler network. And including having a big part in the ultra long haul and submarine parts of their networks as we do now.

我也認為資料中心內部存在著可能性。現在距離更遠了，我們仍然有很多工作要做，以確保我們能夠提供資料中心內部所需的技術。我們不知道轉變會發生什麼事。但我們確實相信我們會有很好的機會在那裡比賽。所以，是的，我們將進入網路縮放器網路的無用部分。包括像我們現在一樣在其網絡的超長距離和海底部分中發揮重要作用。

Okay. Second question is about the broadband, and I'm going to ask it in a sarcastic way, but I'm not a mean person. Why are you even in this business? This is a commodity like -- that's what we've learned in the last few years, right? Commodity like it's about pricing, there are companies that have been doing it for a while, why suddenly you increased participation in this fiber to the X? And why is this attractive for you?

好的。第二個問題是關於寬頻的，我會以諷刺的方式問，但我不是一個卑鄙的人。為什麼從事這個行業？這是一種商品——這就是我們在過去幾年中學到的，對吧？商品就像定價一樣，有些公司已經這樣做了一段時間，為什麼突然增加對X光纖的參與？為什麼這對您有吸引力？

Yes. I think a couple of things. First of all, you're right in the sense that if there was sort of just a continuum of yesterday's world. That's a very valid question to ask, but our hypothesis is that we're staring at a different world in the future, which is fiber, we'll continue to have -- continue to be more prevalent in the network. Capacities are going to increase. And the technologies that you require to do that, continue to play towards strength coherent optics, and that's playing itself out in the broadband access space. If you think about where the standards are going with 100-gig on it take a coherent technology.

是的。我認為有幾件事。首先，你是對的，如果昨天的世界只是一個連續體的話。這是一個非常合理的問題，但我們的假設是，我們未來將看到一個不同的世界，那就是光纖，我們將繼續擁有——繼續在網路中更加普遍。產能將會增加。為此所需的技術將繼續發揮相干光學的作用，而這正在寬頻存取領域發揮作用。如果您考慮 100 吉比特的標準將走向何方，那麼就需要一種連貫的技術。

So the technologies are swimming to our sweet spot. We own the technology. We're vertically integrated. We will have a great cost base there on the OLT side. And we're bringing a very, very innovative architecture to our customers to service that future-looking demand. It's also the same customer base that we have. So same customer base swimming towards the technology that we have to strengthen.

因此，這些技術正在游向我們的最佳點。我們擁有技術。我們是垂直整合的。我們在 OLT 方面將擁有龐大的成本基礎。我們正在為客戶帶來非常非常創新的架構，以滿足未來的需求。這也是我們擁有的相同客戶群。因此，相同的客戶群正在轉向我們必須加強的技術。

We own the technology and ready to integrate on. Those are the reasons why -- and it's a big spend opportunity out there in the marketplace. So those are the reasons why we're targeting it. We're clearly a challenger but we like the hand that we have.

我們擁有技術並準備好進行整合。這就是原因——而且這是市場上一個巨大的消費機會。這就是我們瞄準它的原因。我們顯然是一個挑戰者，但我們喜歡我們現有的牌。

And do you think you can earn good margins on this business?

您認為您可以在這項業務中獲得豐厚的利潤嗎？

Yes. Our margins today -- on 65 customers today and the margins on that today is in line with our corporate average margins.

是的。我們今天的利潤率——今天有 65 個客戶，今天的利潤率與我們公司的平均利潤率一致。

David Vogt with UBS.

瑞銀集團的大衛‧沃格特。

Great guy. Jim, congratulations. Maybe just a big picture question to start. I don't want to get into specifics on fiscal '25. But against the long-term model of 6% to 8% growth in Gary's comments, that's clear that web scale is going to be a bigger part of the business. Can you help us understand maybe before webscale had taken off to the point that it did recently. How we should think about SP spending either in aggregate or by region, given the lull that we've lived through for a number of years. And in the context of that, and Jim, to your point about the backlog and systems being a bigger part of coming out into revenue now.

很棒的傢伙。吉姆，恭喜你。也許只是從一個大問題開始。我不想詳細討論 25 財年的情況。但與 Gary 評論中 6% 至 8% 成長的長期模式相比，網路規模顯然將成為業務的更大組成部分。您能否幫助我們了解 webscale 發展到最近的程度之前的情況。考慮到我們已經經歷了多年的平靜期，我們應該如何考慮總體或按地區的 SP 支出。在這種情況下，吉姆，關於積壓和系統現在成為收入的重要組成部分的觀點。

How should we think about that gross margin impact going forward if we look at maybe history as a comparison. I know COVID was probably an unfair comparison when you shipped a lot of transceivers out of backlog and that helps gross margin. But just any kind of framework or guardrails you can kind of put around the different moving pieces over the longer term, not necessarily '25 would be helpful.

如果我們將歷史作為比較，我們應該如何看待未來的毛利率影響。我知道，當您運送大量積壓的收發器時，新冠疫情可能是一個不公平的比較，這有助於提高毛利率。但從長遠來看，你可以在不同的移動部件周圍放置任何類型的框架或護欄，但 25 不一定會有幫助。

David, let me take the first part of that question, the overall sort of service provider dynamics. I would say that they've certainly been challenging all the way through for COVID supply chain and then this absorption, which I think has lasted longer than any of us would have certainly anticipated, but seen through the smoggable of that, if you will, service providers continue to be the primary delivery for all of this bandwidth, including all of the things like AI and cloud connectivity around the world.

大衛，讓我來回答這個問題的第一部分，即服務提供者動態的整體情況。我想說的是，他們肯定一直在挑戰新冠肺炎供應鏈，然後是這種吸收，我認為這種吸收持續的時間比我們任何人都預期的要長，但如果你願意的話，透過它的煙霧，服務提供者仍然是所有這些頻寬的主要交付者，包括世界各地的人工智慧和雲端連接等所有內容。

And particularly when you talk about the last mile or so and on the mobile side. So service providers are certainly not going away. It's been very challenging around the dynamics that we all know from that. I think they are coming into balance. Particularly, we're seeing that in North America, where we expect it to be a continued gradual improvement. We're encouraged by what we're seeing, and certain international markets as well, places like India, places like South Asia for us, look good. Europe, I think, has some particular challenges around the structure of it, which will take time to resolve.

尤其是當您談論最後一英里左右以及移動端時。因此，服務提供者肯定不會消失。我們都知道，這方面的動態非常具有挑戰性。我認為他們正在達到平衡。特別是，我們在北美看到這一點，我們預計這種情況將持續逐步改善。我們對所看到的情況感到鼓舞，某些國際市場，如印度、南亞等地，對我們來說看起來也不錯。我認為，歐洲在其結構方面面臨一些特殊的挑戰，這需要時間來解決。

But it's also got the tailwind there of Huawei replacement as well. So I do think you're going to get back to a more normalized growth with the service providers going forward, I do, which builds into our underlying 6% to 8%, David, as you mentioned.

但它也受到了華為替代品的推動。因此，我確實認為隨著服務提供者的發展，您將會恢復到更正常化的成長，我確實如此，這構成了我們的 6% 到 8% 的基礎，大衛，正如您所提到的。

And just on the shape of our gross margins, there -- the shape of our gross margins don't vary significantly across our customer base. Now when we're a challenger going into a new market, sometimes we'll -- a pretty competitive price or they order to get in. But over time, whether we're selling to a service provider or to a web scaler, our gross margins byproduct are going to be in the same range. Now we have said that line systems, in particular, have lower gross margins than our MOFN or capacity. And that's just a function of first cost in to our customers. And that's true whether it's a service provider or a webscaler.

僅就我們的毛利率的形狀而言，我們的毛利率的形狀在我們的客戶群中並沒有顯著變化。現在，當我們成為進入新市場的挑戰者時，有時我們會提供相當有競爭力的價格，或者他們會下令進入。我們的產品副產品毛利率將在同一範圍內。現在我們已經說過，特別是生產線系統的毛利率低於我們的 MOFN 或產能。這只是我們客戶的初始成本的函數。無論是服務提供者還是網路縮放器都是如此。

And then you look at optical margins versus routing and switching margins. We believe over time, routing at switching margins are going to be accretive to our gross margins. Software will be accretive to our gross markets and services is accretive to our gross market. So that's the shape doesn't really vary across our customer base all that much, has to do with mix and timing of the project.

然後您會看到光纖餘裕與路由和交換餘裕。我們相信，隨著時間的推移，以轉換利潤進行路由將增加我們的毛利率。軟體將增加我們的總市場，服務也將增加我們的總市場。因此，我們的客戶群的形狀並沒有太大變化，與專案的組合和時間安排有關。

Great. Can I ask just a follow-up, Jim, mechanical question. I don't think I heard you say where you think inventory is going to end up at the end of the year. Do you have a sense that you can share with us? .

偉大的。吉姆，我可以問一個後續的機械問題嗎？我想我沒有聽到你說過你認為年底庫存會達到什麼水準。有什麼感想可以跟我們分享嗎？ 。

Yes, ended the quarter at $937 million. I think it will come down another $50 million or so by the end of the year, I guess.

是的，本季末的營收為 9.37 億美元。我想，到今年年底，還會再減少 5,000 萬美元左右。

The next question is from Ruben Roy with Stifel.

下一個問題是魯本·羅伊 (Ruben Roy) 和史蒂菲爾 (Stifel) 提出的。

I guess, Jim, just to follow up on that. So as you get through the inventory exiting fiscal '24, how would you assess inventory levels at that point pretty close to normal? Or is there more work to do there?

我想，吉姆，只是為了跟進此事。因此，當您整理完 24 財年的庫存後，您將如何評估當時非常接近正常水準的庫存水準？或是還有更多工作要做嗎？

You're talking about '25 now. Yes, on is from $150 million or so decrease in Q4, it's still elevated. We're still working through inventory and the big orders that we put on our supply chain over the past 1.5 years. We were a couple of 2x turns or something like that. In the past, we were at much as 6x terms. But I don't think we'll get back to 6x turns. Given what's happening in our supply chain, we will likely be more surplus components of key components in order to make sure that we can get through difficulties in the purchase of some of these components.

你現在談論的是25歲。是的，雖然比第四季減少了 1.5 億美元左右，但仍然較高。我們仍在處理庫存和過去 1.5 年供應鏈上的大訂單。我們轉了兩圈或類似的東西。過去，我們的任期多達 6 倍。但我不認為我們會回到 6 圈。考慮到我們供應鏈中發生的情況，我們可能會增加關鍵零件的剩餘零件，以確保我們能夠度過部分零件的採購困難。

I think we'll get back down to something like 4.5 maybe 5 times, but maybe not down by the end of next year, maybe it's going to be more between 4 and 4.5 in the next year.

我認為我們會回到 4.5 左右，也許有 5 次，但到明年年底可能不會下降，也許明年會在 4 到 4.5 之間。

Congrats on your future plans. I had a quick follow-up for Gary or Scott. Just around the 400 CR commentary. I was wondering -- it seems to me like that's maybe a little bit more of a competitive set of products relative to where you've been in systems historically? And just wondering, given the momentum there for your products, if you could maybe just give us a few details around why you're winning. I assume you mentioned power is important, et cetera. But anything else we can you think of around kind of why you're winning and what your visibility is, I guess, for continued momentum in that seemingly important area of the market.

恭喜你的未來計畫。我對加里或斯科特進行了快速跟進。剛好400 CR解說左右。我想知道 - 在我看來，相對於您歷史上使用的系統而言，這可能是一組更有競爭力的產品？只是想知道，鑑於您的產品的勢頭，您是否可以向我們提供一些有關您獲勝原因的細節。我想你提到權力很重要等等。但我想，我們可以圍繞你獲勝的原因以及你的知名度來思考其他任何事情，以便在這個看似重要的市場領域保持持續的勢頭。

Yes. So just a reminder, our 400 gig ZR plug is based on where we've landed 5 nano technology, if you go back a few years, we had two alternative WaveLogic 5 trams net we consciously made the decision to introduce Extreme first and nano second in the marketplace. And turned over to be the right decision based on our market share gains over the years, but it did mean that we did not intercept the first couple of early movers in the marketplace on the 400-gig pluggables.

是的。所以提醒一下，我們的 400 gig ZR 插頭是基於我們已經落地的 5 奈米技術，如果你回到幾年前，我們有兩個替代的 WaveLogic 5 電車網絡，我們有意識地決定首先引入 Extreme，其次引入 Nano在市場上。根據我們多年來的市佔率成長情況來看，這是一個正確的決定，但這確實意味著我們沒有攔截市場上 400G 可插拔設備的第一批先行者。

Now the original definition of 400-gig ZR was sort of the least common denominator from a performance perspective. What's happened in the marketplace, of course, with AI coming on gangbusters as people are realizing that power is forcing data centers to be distributed further and therefore, performance starts to be important again. So performance from a reach perspective and performance from a power perspective in that form factor is now what wins in the conversation.

現在，從效能角度來看，400-g ZR 的最初定義是某種最小公分母。當然，市場上發生的事情是，隨著人們意識到電力正在迫使資料中心進一步分佈，因此人工智慧開始蓬勃發展，因此效能再次開始變得重要。因此，在該外形尺寸中，從覆蓋範圍角度來看的性能和從功率角度來看的性能現在是對話中獲勝的關鍵。

And I'd say after the first couple of awards in this sort of industry segment, we've had a tremendous win rate in terms of being in the competitive bids out there for this technology. And we're going to continue to have that going forward because of that performance advantage.

我想說的是，在此類行業領域獲得前幾個獎項後，我們在這項技術的競爭性投標中獲得了巨大的中標率。由於性能優勢，我們將繼續保持這一勢頭。

Then I think there is a misconception there about plugs generally -- not all plugs are equal.

然後我認為人們普遍對插頭有誤解——並非所有插頭都是平等的。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate it. We look forward to catching up with folks later today and over the coming weeks. Thank you.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們很感激。我們期待著今天晚些時候和未來幾週與人們見面。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演示，您現在可以斷開連接了。