Ciena Corp (CIEN) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Ciena's Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Gregg Lampf, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎參加 Ciena 2023 年第四季財務業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Gregg Lampf。請繼續。

Thank you, Drew. Good morning, and welcome to Ciena's 2023 Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Year-End Results Conference Call. On the call today is Gary Smith, President and CEO; and Jim Moylan, CFO. In addition to this call and press release, we have posted to the Investors section of our website an accompanying investor presentation that reflects this discussion as well as certain highlighted items from the quarter and the year. Our comments today speak to our recent performance, our view on current market dynamics and drivers of our business as well as a discussion of our financial outlook.

謝謝你，德魯。早安，歡迎參加 Ciena 2023 財年第四季和年終業績電話會議。今天的電話會議由總裁兼執行長加里史密斯 (Gary Smith) 主持。和財務長吉姆·莫伊蘭。除了本次電話會議和新聞稿之外，我們還在網站的投資者部分發布了一份隨附的投資者演示文稿，其中反映了本次討論以及本季度和本年度的某些重點項目。我們今天的評論涉及我們最近的業績、我們對當前市場動態和業務驅動因素的看法以及對我們財務前景的討論。

Today's discussion includes certain adjusted or non-GAAP measures of Ciena's results of operations. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results is included in today's press release. Before turning the call over to Gary, I'll remind you that during this call, we'll be making certain forward-looking statements.

今天的討論包括 Ciena 營運績效的某些調整後或非公認會計原則衡量標準。今天的新聞稿中包含了這些非公認會計準則衡量指標與我們公認的會計準則結果的協調表。在將電話轉給加里之前，我要提醒您，在這次電話會議中，我們將做出某些前瞻性陳述。

Such statements, including our quarterly and annual guidance and our long-term financial outlook and discussion of market opportunities and strategy, are based on current expectations, forecasts and assumptions regarding the company and its markets, which include risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements discussed today.

此類聲明，包括我們的季度和年度指導以及我們的長期財務展望以及對市場機會和策略的討論，均基於有關公司及其市場的當前預期、預測和假設，其中包括可能導致實際結果的風險和不確定性與今天討論的聲明有重大不同。

Assumptions relating to our outlook, whether mentioned on this call or included in the investor presentation that we'll post shortly after are important part of such forward-looking statements, and we encourage you to consider them. Our forward-looking statements should also be viewed in the context of the risk factors detailed in our most recent 10-Q filing and in our upcoming 10-K filing, which will be filed with the SEC by December 29.

與我們的前景相關的假設，無論是在本次電話會議中提到的還是包含在我們不久後發布的投資者演示文稿中的，都是此類前瞻性聲明的重要組成部分，我們鼓勵您考慮它們。我們的前瞻性陳述也應結合我們最近的 10-Q 文件和即將於 12 月 29 日向 SEC 提交的 10-K 文件中詳細說明的風險因素來看待。

Ciena assumes no obligation to update the information discussed in this conference call, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. As always, we will allow for as much Q&A as possible today. (Operator Instructions) With that, I'll turn the call over to Gary.

Ciena 不承擔更新本次電話會議中討論的資訊的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。像往常一樣，今天我們將盡可能多地進行問答。 （操作員指示）接下來，我會將電話轉給加里。

Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. Today, we reported very strong fiscal fourth quarter results, including revenue of $1.13 billion and adjusted gross margin of 43.7%. Our team has been executing exceptionally well. And in Q4, we shipped more hardware across our portfolio than ever before.

謝謝格雷格，大家早安。今天，我們公佈了非常強勁的第四財季業績，包括 11.3 億美元的營收和 43.7% 的調整後毛利率。我們的團隊執行得非常好。在第四季度，我們產品組合中的硬體出貨量比以往任何時候都多。

For the full fiscal year, we delivered revenue of $4.39 billion, a 21% increase over fiscal 2022 which, as you can expect, drove very strong market share gains. We also drove a 43% increase in adjusted annual EPS. Notably, in FY '23, revenue for our routing and switching portfolio also increased 27% year-over-year I think, a strong demonstration of the momentum within this element of our expanded addressable market.

在整個財年，我們實現了 43.9 億美元的收入，比 2022 財年增長了 21%，正如您所料，這推動了市場份額的強勁增長。我們也推動調整後的年度每股收益成長了 43%。值得注意的是，在 23 財年，我們的路由和交換產品組合的收入也同比增長了 27%，我認為，這有力地證明了我們擴大的潛在市場的這一要素的勢頭。

Before I continue, I want to be absolutely clear that our Q4 performance, our commentary about market dynamics and the outlook we are providing today is very consistent with what we said last quarter and indeed, as we move through most of fiscal 2023. There have been no major changes to industry dynamics including that demand remains incredibly strong as evidenced by high levels of customer activity and engagement across all segments and regions.

在繼續之前，我想絕對明確的是，我們第四季度的業績、我們對市場動態的評論以及我們今天提供的前景與我們上季度所說的非常一致，事實上，隨著我們度過2023 財年的大部分時間。行業動態沒有重大變化，包括需求仍然非常強勁，所有細分市場和地區的高水平客戶活動和參與就證明了這一點。

The single variable that remains uncertain today is the precise timing around the flow of new orders aligning with reduced lead times from our service provider customers, particularly those in North America. And as a reminder, Supply chain constraints led to elongated lead times, which resulted in large advanced order volumes.

今天仍然不確定的唯一變數是新訂單流的精確時間與我們的服務提供者客戶（尤其是北美客戶）的交貨時間縮短相一致。需要提醒的是，供應鏈的限制導致交貨時間延長，從而導致大量的提前訂單量。

In fiscal 2023, a faster-than-anticipated improvement in lead times is requiring some customers to digest the large amounts of equipment ordered in prior periods. I would also note that the cloud providers were really the first to experience this dynamic and are very clearly the first who have worked through it. And in fact, orders from our cloud provider customers as well as our total orders were up once again in Q4.

2023 財年，交貨時間的改善快於預期，要求部分顧客消化前期訂購的大量設備。我還要指出的是，雲端供應商確實是第一個體驗到這種動態的人，而且很明顯地是第一個經歷過這種變化的人。事實上，我們的雲端供應商客戶的訂單以及我們的總訂單在第四季再次上升。

And we strongly believe that what we're seeing with cloud providers is a leading indicator and that service providers will similarly return to normal order patterns in the coming quarters. And that belief, combined with strong fundamental demand, our leading innovation and customer relationships as well as our outsized backlog, which we're still carrying, we enter fiscal 2024, very confident in our ability to continue to grow faster than the market and to take share.

我們堅信，我們在雲端供應商身上看到的情況是一個領先指標，服務提供者將在未來幾季同樣恢復正常的訂單模式。這種信念，加上強勁的基本需求、我們領先的創新和客戶關係，以及我們仍然持有的大量積壓訂單，我們進入 2024 財年，對我們繼續比市場更快增長的能力充滿信心，並分享。

So moving to some highlights across the portfolio. In Optical Networking, we continue to extend our leadership from both a market share and technology perspective. In fact, we increased our global market share in optical by more than 5 percentage points on a year-on-year basis, which, in fact, puts us in an even stronger position than our pre-pandemic market share.

因此，我們將討論整個產品組合中的一些亮點。在光網路領域，我們繼續從市場份額和技術角度擴大我們的領先地位。事實上，我們在光學領域的全球市場份額同比增長了超過 5 個百分點，這實際上使我們處於比大流行前的市場份額更強大的地位。

Looking ahead, we will be first to market yet again with our next-generation 1.6 terabit WaveLogic 6 in mid-2024. And we intend to press down on this technology advantage as competitors have launched only 1.2 terabit alternatives. In Q4 specifically, for optical, it was a record quarter for both WaveLogic 5 Extreme and 6500 RLS, driven by cloud provider network expansions.

展望未來，我們將在 2024 年中期再次率先推出下一代 1.6 太比特 WaveLogic 6。我們打算壓制這項技術優勢，因為競爭對手僅推出了 1.2 太比特替代方案。具體而言，在第四季度，對於光纖而言，在雲端供應商網路擴充的推動下，WaveLogic 5 Extreme 和 6500 RLS 均創下了創紀錄的季度記錄。

During the quarter, WaveLogic 5E surpassed 100,000 total modems shipped, making it the most widely deployed 800-gig solution in the market. And as WaveLogic 5 success continues, WaveLogic 6 is, of course, building momentum, including orders from a large subsea customer and a strategic win and adoption with a cloud provider in Q4. In Routing and Switching, we continue to grow our share as a challenger in this market, ending the year with greater than $500 million in annual revenue.

本季度，WaveLogic 5E 數據機的總出貨量超過 10 萬個，使其成為市場上部署最廣泛的 800 GB 解決方案。隨著 WaveLogic 5 的持續成功，WaveLogic 6 當然正在積聚動力，包括來自大型海底客戶的訂單以及第四季度與雲端供應商的策略性勝利和採用。在路由和交換領域，我們作為該市場的挑戰者不斷擴大份額，到年底的年收入超過 5 億美元。

We added 40 new routing and switching customers in Q4 alone,and now have more than 300 in total. During the quarter, we received initial orders for WaveRouter, our industry-first converged metro platform, which became generally available in Q3. And as some of you may have seen, we announced last week, we are partnering with Flex to add new U.S. based manufacturing capabilities for our unique next-gen pluggable optical line terminals of OLTs and our optical network units, ONUs, as broadband access is a key part of our addressable market expansion strategy over time.

光是第四季我們就新增了 40 個路由和交換客戶，目前總數已超過 300 個。本季度，我們收到了 WaveRouter 的初始訂單，這是我們業界首個融合城域平台，該平台於第三季度全面上市。正如你們中的一些人可能已經看到的，我們上周宣布，我們正在與Flex 合作，為我們獨特的下一代可插拔光線路終端OLT 和光網絡單元ONU 添加新的美國製造能力，因為寬頻接入正在成為現實。隨著時間的推移，我們的目標市場擴張策略的關鍵部分。

We're very excited to support the Department of Commerce's broadband equity adoption and deployment of the BEAD program and to ensure our customers can meet the Build America, Buy America requirements of this program. Also in Q4, Blue Planet had a good quarter with $20 million in revenue. And as some of you also may have seen, we've just recently announced a new collaboration with BT Group which is using Blue Planet solutions to automate the orchestration and delivery of network services.

我們非常高興能夠支援商務部寬頻股權採用和部署 BEAD 計劃，並確保我們的客戶能夠滿足該計劃的「建造美國、購買美國」要求。同樣在第四季度，藍色星球的季度收入也不錯，收入為 2000 萬美元。正如你們中的一些人可能也已經看到的，我們最近剛剛宣布與 BT Group 開展新的合作，該集團正在使用 Blue Planet 解決方案來自動化網路服務的編排和交付。

And lastly, our Global Services segment had a record quarter in Q4 with revenue of $150 million, an increase of 20%. And interestingly, obviously, driven by installation and deployment services which again is a positive leading indicator of service providers' ability to consume product. Taking a perspective around customer segments, clearly, we had a record quarter with cloud providers as they continue to invest in data center interconnect for their traditional business and begin to provision their networks for AI-related traffic. Indeed, our WaveLogic leadership continues to be particularly highly valued by this critical customer segment.

最後，我們的全球服務部門在第四季度創下了創紀錄的季度收入，達到 1.5 億美元，成長了 20%。有趣的是，顯然，這是由安裝和部署服務驅動的，這又是服務提供者消費產品能力的積極領先指標。從客戶群的角度來看，顯然，我們與雲端供應商的季度業績創下了紀錄，因為他們繼續投資於其傳統業務的資料中心互連，並開始為人工智慧相關流量配置其網路。事實上，我們的 WaveLogic 領導地位仍然受到這個關鍵客戶群的高度重視。

And as I mentioned, orders from cloud providers were up once again over the prior quarter. Significantly, for the first time, our 2 10% customers in Q4 were both cloud customers. Also in the quarter, direct cloud provider revenue accounted for 35% of total revenue, the highest percentage ever. And for the fiscal year, Direct cloud provider revenue grew 57%, reaching $1.2 billion or 27% of total revenue.

正如我所提到的，來自雲端供應商的訂單比上一季再次增加。值得注意的是，第四季我們首次有 2 10% 的客戶都是雲端客戶。同樣在本季度，直接雲端供應商收入佔總收入的 35%，是有史以來的最高比例。在本財年，Direct 雲端供應商營收成長了 57%，達到 12 億美元，佔總營收的 27%。

So importantly, as we reflect on all of this, the fundamental demand drivers for our business remain incredibly strong. Over the past 20 years, the 30% plus annual growth in bandwidth demand has been driven by many mega trends like the monetization of the Internet, the move to the cloud, mobile, the digital transformation to name a few. And we have been the leader in servicing that demand for bandwidth with our leading technology.

重要的是，當我們反思這一切時，我們業務的基本需求驅動因素仍然非常強勁。過去 20 年來，網路貨幣化、雲端運算、行動、數位轉型等諸多大趨勢推動了頻寬需求每年 30% 以上的成長。我們一直是利用領先技術滿足頻寬需求的領導者。

It is becoming increasingly clear that over the next several years, AI will be a catalyst for continued strong bandwidth growth. And we are incredibly well positioned to address these opportunities across our portfolio and from our customer relationship perspective. We have industry-leading optical technology to high-speed delivery at the edge to network automation. We will continue executing on our strategy to be the best-in-class innovator in optical, bringing to market leading innovation like WaveLogic 6, while expanding our market opportunities in routing and switching.

越來越明顯的是，在未來幾年中，人工智慧將成為頻寬持續強勁成長的催化劑。我們非常有能力從我們的產品組合和客戶關係的角度來抓住這些機會。我們擁有業界領先的光學技術，能夠在邊緣高速傳輸到網路自動化。我們將繼續執行成為光學領域一流創新者的策略，將 WaveLogic 6 等領先的創新推向市場，同時擴大我們在路由和交換領域的市場機會。

Specifically in that, we will continue investing in our portfolio to address higher growth areas in converged metro core, PON and virtual routing. We are already winning deals and taking market share. So in summary, we delivered an outstanding year in fiscal 2023, gaining significant market share and further advancing our leadership position.

具體來說，我們將繼續投資我們的產品組合，以解決融合城域核心、PON 和虛擬路由等更高成長領域的問題。我們已經贏得了交易並佔據了市場份額。總而言之，我們在 2023 財年取得了出色的業績，獲得了顯著的市場份額，並進一步提升了我們的領導地位。

Obviously, we are well positioned to continue to grow faster than the market, driven by our leading innovation and the diversity and strength of our customer relationships. With that, I'll turn it over to Jim, who will provide more detail on our results as well as our business outlook. Jim?

顯然，在我們領先的創新以及客戶關係的多樣性和實力的推動下，我們處於有利地位，能夠繼續比市場更快地成長。接下來，我會將其交給吉姆，他將提供有關我們的業績以及業務前景的更多詳細資訊。吉姆？

Thanks, Gary. Good morning, everyone. Ciena delivered very strong Q4 results. Revenue came in at $1.129 billion and adjusted gross margin was strong at 43.7% reflecting a favorable product mix as well as improvements in component costs in the quarter. Q4 adjusted operating expense was $338 million. With respect to profitability measures, in Q4, we delivered adjusted operating margin of 13.8%, adjusted net income of $111 million and adjusted EPS of $0.75.

謝謝，加里。大家，早安。 Ciena 第四季業績非常強勁。營收為 11.29 億美元，調整後毛利率高達 43.7%，反映出有利的產品組合以及本季零件成本的改善。第四季調整後營運費用為 3.38 億美元。在獲利能力方面，第四季度，我們的調整後營業利潤率為 13.8%，調整後淨利潤為 1.11 億美元，調整後每股收益為 0.75 美元。

In addition, in Q4, adjusted EBITDA was $179 million. Cash from operations was $196 million and free cash flow was $173 million, driven by a $140 million reduction in inventory. We repurchased approximately 4.2 million shares for $189 million, completing the $250 million repurchase targeted for the year.

此外，第四季調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.79 億美元。由於庫存減少了 1.4 億美元，營運現金為 1.96 億美元，自由現金流為 1.73 億美元。我們以 1.89 億美元回購了約 420 萬股股票，完成了今年 2.5 億美元的回購目標。

With respect to performance for the full fiscal year, annual revenue was $4.39 billion. We drove adjusted gross margin of 43.5% for the year and adjusted OpEx for fiscal year '23 totaled $1.33 billion, precisely as we planned.

就整個財年的業績而言，年收入為43.9億美元。我們全年的調整後毛利率達到 43.5%，調整後的 23 財年營運支出總計 13.3 億美元，完全符合我們的計劃。

Moving to profitability. Adjusted operating margin in fiscal 2023 was 13.1% and adjusted EPS was $2.72. Free cash flow for fiscal 2023 was $62 million. Strength of our balance sheet is a significant differentiator, particularly in this uncertain environment, and we ended the year with approximately $1.25 billion in cash and investments.

轉向盈利。 2023 財年調整後營業利益率為 13.1%，調整後每股盈餘為 2.72 美元。 2023 財年的自由現金流為 6,200 萬美元。我們的資產負債表實力是一個顯著的差異化因素，特別是在這種不確定的環境下，我們在年底擁有約 12.5 億美元的現金和投資。

Inventory ended at $1.05 billion, down roughly $140 million from Q3, but somewhat higher than we expected due to a shift in product mix delivered to customers. We expect inventory to come down by $250 million to $300 million by the end of the year.

庫存最終為 10.5 億美元，比第三季減少約 1.4 億美元，但由於交付給客戶的產品結構發生變化，略高於我們的預期。我們預計到年底庫存將減少 2.5 億至 3 億美元。

Now turning to guidance. We will be giving new 3-year revenue targets today. To start, however, I want to compare and contrast the targets we gave last year at this point in time to the new 3-year targets for fiscal 2024 through fiscal '26. You'll recall that last year, we provided a 3-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 10% to 12% through fiscal year '25. We made it clear then that 10% to 12% revenue growth is not our long-term sustainable rate of growth. However, we provided that target, knowing that fiscal year '23 would be a year of outsized growth and that we would return thereafter to our long-term trend of 6% to 8% annual growth.

現在轉向指導。今天我們將給出新的三年收入目標。不過，首先，我想將我們去年設定的目標與 2024 財年至 26 財年的新三年目標進行比較和對比。您可能還記得，去年我們提出了截至 25 財年的 3 年營收複合成長率為 10% 至 12%。我們當時就明確表示，10%到12%的營收成長不是我們長期可持續的成長率。然而，我們提出了這個目標，因為我們知道 23 財年將是超額成長的一年，此後我們將恢復到年增長率 6% 至 8% 的長期趨勢。

Fiscal year '23 followed 3 years of low annual revenue growth due to the unprecedented set of dynamics that resulted from the global pandemic and the subsequent supply chain challenges. Given that our revenue performance in fiscal year '23 was outsized as expected, and with confidence in our ability to continue leveraging our market and technology leadership going forward, we believe that we remain on track to be in that 10% to 12% revenue CAGR for the 3 years ending in fiscal year '25.

由於全球大流行和隨後的供應鏈挑戰帶來了前所未有的動態，23 財年經歷了三年的低年收入成長。鑑於我們在 23 財年的收入表現超出預期，並且對我們繼續利用我們的市場和技術領先地位的能力充滿信心，我們相信我們仍有望實現 10% 至 12% 的收入複合年增長率截至'25 財年的3 年。

With that, as we look ahead, we believe it's valuable to look at a period that excludes the outsized growth in fiscal year '23 in order to provide a more accurate reflection of our anticipated average growth rate going forward. Accordingly, Today, we are providing a new set of long-term targets for the 3-year period encompassing fiscal year's '24, '25 and '26.

因此，展望未來，我們認為有必要考慮排除 23 財年超額成長的時期，以便更準確地反映我們預期的未來平均成長率。因此，今天，我們為包括 24、25 和 26 財年的三年期提供了一套新的長期目標。

We believe that we are well positioned to deliver strong top line growth and profitability for the long term. With that, we expect average annual revenue growth of approximately 6% to 8% for the next 3 years, which is consistent with the growth rates we have delivered over the long term whether the past 3, 5, 10 or even longer years.

我們相信，我們有能力實現長期強勁的營收成長和獲利能力。因此，我們預計未來 3 年平均年收入成長約為 6% 至 8%，這與我們過去 3 年、5 年、10 年甚至更長的長期成長率一致。

All of this reflects our confidence in the fundamental demand drivers for our business. We expect to leverage those opportunities by continuing to lead in optical, while expanding our addressable market in routing and switching. Additionally, with respect to operating margin, we continue to focus on driving leverage from our operating model.

所有這些都反映了我們對業務基本需求驅動因素的信心。我們希望透過繼續在光學領域保持領先地位來利用這些機會，同時擴大我們在路由和交換領域的潛在市場。此外，就營業利益率而言，我們持續專注於提高營運模式的槓桿率。

Accordingly, we are targeting to achieve adjusted operating margin of 15% to 17% for fiscal year '26. As we think about fiscal year '24 specifically, I want to reinforce a few points. As Gary stated, the fundamental demand drivers for our industry, including the growth in bandwidth demand remained strong. As expected, we entered 2024 with $2.6 billion in backlog, which is still outsized both on a relative and an absolute basis, over twice our historical levels in absolute dollars.

因此，我們的目標是在 26 財年實現調整後營業利潤率 15% 至 17%。當我們具體考慮 24 財年時，我想強調幾點。正如加里所說，我們行業的基本需求驅動因素，包括頻寬需求的成長仍然強勁。正如預期的那樣，進入 2024 年時，我們的積壓訂單已達到 26 億美元，無論從相對水平還是絕對水平來看，這一數字仍然巨大，是歷史絕對水平的兩倍多。

And we have begun to see both increased spend and plans for strong 2024 CapEx by our cloud provider customers. We believe that the recent increase in orders from cloud customers is a leading indicator that service providers order patterns will improve in the coming quarters. However, as Gary stated earlier, current service provider order flow is low, particularly in North America as these customers continue to work through relatively high levels of inventory.

我們已經開始看到我們的雲端供應商客戶增加了支出，並計劃在 2024 年實現強勁的資本支出。我們認為，最近雲端客戶訂單的增加是一個領先指標，表明服務提供者的訂單模式將在未來幾季得到改善。然而，正如加里之前所說，目前服務提供者的訂單流量較低，尤其是在北美，因為這些客戶繼續處理相對較高的庫存水準。

While we expect service provider order patterns to improve as we move through 2024, the timing and volume of that improvement remains uncertain. Taking these factors into consideration, we will guide to a slightly wider than typical range of revenue in fiscal year '24. Accordingly, we expect our revenue growth in fiscal year '24 to be in a range of 1% to 4%.

雖然我們預計服務提供者的訂單模式將在 2024 年得到改善，但改善的時間和數量仍不確定。考慮到這些因素，我們將指導 24 財年的收入範圍略寬於典型範圍。因此，我們預計 24 財年的營收成長將在 1% 至 4% 之間。

Within this environment, optical industry growth estimates for 2024 are currently being updated by industry analysts. Based on what we've seen from those sources and our own assessment, we believe the prevailing expectation is for largely flat market revenue in 2024. Given our diversification, leading position and differentiation, we expect to take share and to grow revenue faster than the market.

在此環境下，產業分析師目前正在更新 2024 年光學產業的成長預測。根據我們從這些來源看到的情況以及我們自己的評估，我們認為普遍的預期是2024 年市場收入基本持平。鑑於我們的多元化、領先地位和差異化，我們預計將搶佔市場份額並以比競爭對手更快的速度成長收入。市場。

With respect to gross margin for fiscal year '24, we expect it to be in the mid-40% range, with some variability by quarter, but generally reflecting the positive impacts of improving supply chain conditions. For operating expense in fiscal year '24, we intend to continue investing strategically both to advance our leadership position in our core markets and to expand our addressable market in the key growth areas, including converged metro core and broadband access.

就 24 財年的毛利率而言，我們預計將在 40% 左右，每個季度會有一些變化，但總體反映了供應鏈狀況改善的正面影響。對於 24 財年的營運費用，我們打算繼續進行策略性投資，以提升我們在核心市場的領導地位，並擴大我們在關鍵成長領域的潛在市場，包括融合城域核心和寬頻存取。

Therefore, we expect adjusted operating expense to average $355 million per quarter in fiscal '24. This number may vary by quarter, and we expect OpEx to start slightly lower and increase through the year. Finally, as we improve our net working capital by reducing inventory levels throughout the year we expect to generate significant cash in fiscal '24. We believe that we will generate free cash flow of at least $400 million during the year.

因此，我們預計 24 財年每季調整後的營運費用平均為 3.55 億美元。這個數字可能會因季度而異，我們預計營運支出一開始會略有下降，但全年會有所增加。最後，隨著我們透過降低全年庫存水準來提高淨營運資本，我們預計將在 24 財年產生大量現金。我們相信年內我們將產生至少4億美元的自由現金流。

We also plan to repurchase another $250 million in Ciena shares under our $1 billion Board approved plan. Finally, with respect to Q1 '24, we expect to deliver revenue in a range of $980 million to $1.06 billion, adjusted gross margin in the mid-40s percentage range and adjusted operating expense of approximately $350 million. In conclusion, our strong Q4 and fiscal year results underscore our industry leadership, driven by our technology advancements across our portfolio and a diverse customer base.

我們還計劃根據董事會批准的 10 億美元計劃回購另外 2.5 億美元的 Ciena 股票。最後，就24 年第一季而言，我們預計營收將在9.8 億美元至10.6 億美元之間，調整後的毛利率在40 % 左右的百分比範圍內，調整後的營運費用約為3.5 億美元。總而言之，我們強勁的第四季和財年業績凸顯了我們的產業領先地位，這得益於我們整個產品組合的技術進步和多元化的客戶群。

Looking ahead, we anticipate a return to normalized order patterns that go through 2024 and for CAI as a growing driver of bandwidth growth. And we are confident in our ability to seize market opportunities and to deliver profitable growth as we combine our leadership in optical with our continued investments to expand capabilities to address new markets in routing and switching. With that, I'll turn the call over to Q&A with questions from our analysts. Drew?

展望未來，我們預計 2024 年將恢復正常訂單模式，並且 CAI 將成為頻寬成長的日益增長的驅動力。我們對抓住市場機會並實現盈利增長的能力充滿信心，因為我們將光學領域的領先地位與持續投資相結合，以擴大能力，應對路由和交換領域的新市場。接下來，我將把電話轉入問答環節，回答分析師提出的問題。德魯？

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

I guess just given the information that you shared and particularly around the guidance, and thanks for all that color, a lot of details on the call today. When we think about the 1% to 4% growth rate that you're guiding to for next year, how should I think about what you're embedding in it? Clearly, cloud, you have a lot more confidence in the growth. But when I think about the other verticals, telco, cable, can you just share your thoughts about particularly if you're assuming telco sort of is in decline in terms of revenue next year? Or any other any color on the other customer verticals would be helpful. And I have a follow-up.

我想剛剛給出了您分享的信息，特別是圍繞指導的信息，感謝所有這些顏色，以及今天電話會議上的許多細節。當我們考慮您明年指導的 1% 到 4% 的成長率時，我應該如何考慮您在其中嵌入的內容？顯然，雲，你對成長更有信心。但是，當我想到其他垂直行業（電信、有線電視）時，您能否分享一下您的想法，特別是如果您假設電信公司明年的收入會有所下降？或其他客戶垂直領域的任何其他任何顏色都會有幫助。我有一個後續行動。

Yes. Samik, if I sort of answer by sort of what we feel is going to be strong, and we have visibility to good visibility, I think, is cloud submarine, India or 3 large elements that I would say we feel very positive about both in terms of what we've got in backlog and pipeline and activity. I think service providers generally are working through their inventory. They're all at various stages of progress to that.

是的。 Samik，如果我的回答是我們認為會很強大，並且我們有良好的能見度，我認為是雲潛艇、印度或我想說的三個大元素，我們對這兩個方面都感到非常積極就我們的積壓、管道和活動而言。我認為服務提供者通常正在處理他們的庫存。他們都處於不同的進展階段。

I think the the uncertain one on precise timing is really the larger North American Tier 1 service providers. And again, we talk about them collectively and they're all the different stages with different progress around the absorption of all of this. Some are actually in very good shape. Our view on timing for the convert to a normal book to revenue and order flow -- our assumption is that it would be in midyear, which I think is consistent with what you've probably heard from a number of other different companies around the industry. There's a lot of absorption that they took in 2023.

我認為在精確時間上不確定的實際上是較大的北美一級服務提供者。再說一遍，我們集體討論它們，它們都是不同的階段，圍繞著所有這些的吸收有不同的進展。有些實際上狀況非常好。我們對將收入和訂單流轉換為正常帳簿的時間的看法 - 我們的假設是在年中，我認為這與您可能從業內許多其他不同公司聽到的情況一致。他們在 2023 年吸收了大量的知識。

There's some cleanup there, we think, in the first part of '24. But generally, if you look through that, their underlying demand is strong. I mean capacity growth and traffic growth continues to be very robust and to the service providers, certainly not an issue of budget, frankly, either. It's really just some of these larger ones just absorbing and being able to get deployments of the stuff that we've shipped to them.

我們認為，在 24 年的第一部分，會有一些清理工作。但總的來說，如果你仔細觀察的話，他們的潛在需求是強勁的。我的意思是容量成長和流量成長仍然非常強勁，坦白說，對於服務提供者來說，當然也不是預算問題。實際上只是其中一些較大的公司只是吸收並能夠部署我們運送給他們的東西。

Okay. And if I -- for my follow-up, a bit more longer-term question. I mean you issued the guide for 6% to 8%, which is consistent with what you've done historically and what your guide has been. One of the key investor concerns I hear around that long-term growth trajectory is really the -- the acceleration of the pluggables market or the impression thereof that that pluggables market is accelerating and Ciena doesn't really replicate the share it has on systems when it comes to pluggables.

好的。如果我──對於我的後續行動，一個更長期的問題。我的意思是，您以 6% 到 8% 的價格發布了指南，這與您歷史上所做的以及您的指南一致。我聽到的關於長期成長軌蹟的主要投資者擔憂之一實際上是——可插拔市場的加速或由此產生的印象，即可插拔市場正在加速，而Ciena 並沒有真正複製其在系統上的份額。涉及可插拔的。

When you think about sort of where share gains have come from, particularly, as you highlighted robust share gains, like how do you think about that 6% to 8% growth, the impact of pluggables there? Are there any sort of upsets there where you're gaining more share than you have historically to provide offsets? Any color there?

當您思考份額收益從何而來時，特別是當您強調強勁的份額收益時，例如您如何看待 6% 至 8% 的增長，以及可插拔式設備的影響？是否存在任何令人不安的情況，即您獲得的份額超過了您歷史上提供的抵消份額？那裡有什麼顏色嗎？

Yes. I mean, I would just comment on the sort of pluggable piece we've sort of, I guess, been having this sort of conversation but the last 3 or 4 years, it's taken a lot longer for pluggables the 400ZR and you've still got a lot of inventory of the stuff that's already been shipped. So that's really not impacting the market right now.

是的。我的意思是，我只想對可插拔部件進行評論，我想，我們一直在進行此類對話，但在過去的3 或4 年中，可插拔400ZR 花費了更長的時間，而且您仍然有大量已經發貨的庫存。所以目前這確實不會影響市場。

If I think about -- when pluggables will happen, and I think we're very well placed for that, both with the customer relationships and with leading technology. So we see that more as a -- as we've talked about as an opportunity than a threat. Even at 400ZR, we'll obviously be in marketing with WaveLogic 6 variants on to the 800ZR as well. So we will take more than our fair share of that market, we believe.

如果我考慮一下——可插拔何時會出現，我認為我們在客戶關係和領先技術方面都處於非常有利的位置。因此，我們認為這更多的是——正如我們所說的那樣，是機會而不是威脅。即使在 400ZR 上，我們顯然也會在 800ZR 上使用 WaveLogic 6 變體進行行銷。因此，我們相信，我們將在該市場中佔據超出應有份額的份額。

And I think about it in the context of sort of 6% to 8%, Samik, I think we will continue overall, to take market share in optical. I think there's no question about that. But obviously, we're getting to a point where we've got a large market share, and it's a bit of the sort of law of large numbers, you're not going to take 5 percentage points each year.

我在 6% 到 8% 的背景下考慮這個問題，Samik，我認為我們將繼續總體上佔據光學市場份額。我認為這是毫無疑問的。但顯然，我們已經達到了擁有很大市場份額的地步，這有點像大數定律，你不會每年佔據 5 個百分點。

But we're augmenting that growth with our TAM expansion in the key areas around routing and switching, which gives us even greater confidence in diversity about our ability to grow going forward.

但我們正在透過路由和交換關鍵領域的 TAM 擴展來增強這種成長，這讓我們對未來發展能力的多樣性更加充滿信心。

The next question comes from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

I have 1 I had a follow-up as well. So I guess, first one, I would like to understand on the cloud side, you folks are talking about a fairly good bit of strength in the quarter. It was really stronger than expected to continue next year. Can you just talk about specifically maybe from a product portfolio, you said what is driving the strength in cloud? And if you actually see any signs of AI-centric infrastructure tailwinds benefiting your business already?

我有 1 我也有後續行動。所以我想，第一，我想了解雲端方面，你們正在談論本季相當不錯的實力。確實強於明年繼續的預期。能否具體談談產品組合，您說是什麼推動了雲端技術的發展？如果您確實看到任何以人工智慧為中心的基礎設施順風的跡像已經使您的業務受益？

We're seeing in the cloud players, growth around all dimensions of the business, and we have quite a broad relationship with them. So we're seeing it in sort of data center interconnect into the into their long haul with things like Waveserver. We're also seeing it in submarine where they're investing significantly around the globe and also in their country expansions.

我們看到雲廠商在業務的各個方面都在成長，並且我們與他們建立了相當廣泛的關係。因此，我們看到它在某種資料中心互連中與 Waveserver 等設備進行長期連接。我們也在潛水艇領域看到了這一點，他們在全球範圍內以及在國家擴張方面進行了大量投資。

We're working closely with them in a number of markets where they don't necessarily take the fiber themselves, but they partner with a local carrier. We're seeing a lot of those opportunities. And of course, we're incredibly well placed to participate in that. I would single out places like India, for that, where it's the fastest-growing Internet market in the world and you've got the cloud providers all being being very aggressive in investing in there.

我們正在許多市場與他們密切合作，他們不一定自己使用光纖，但他們與當地營運商合作。我們看到了很多這樣的機會。當然，我們非常有能力參與其中。為此，我會特別推薦印度這樣的地方，那裡是世界上成長最快的網路市場，而且雲端供應商都非常積極地在那裡投資。

So you think about it in overall terms for the year, they're up over 50% for us in revenue. We are also seeing an improved order flow from them. And again, the point I would make is it's across multifaceted applications and product applications with cloud plays.

所以你從今年的整體情況來看，我們的收入成長了 50% 以上。我們也看到他們的訂單流有所改善。再次強調，我要強調的一點是，它涉及多方面的應用程式和具有雲端功能的產品應用程式。

Got it. And then maybe if I just go back to the full year guide that you folks have provided of 1% to 4% revenue growth and until you understand the macro environment you're sitting in outside. Is there a way to think about how does that growth breakdown across the different geographies for you? And I know North America seems to be the one place that's somewhat weaker for you, but when you look back historically, when you've had this digestion period with the North American companies, is it a 1 2-quarter phenomenon? Or do you think it could be longer given in a way how much product they into through the pandemic? Just any color on how does growth break down across geos? And then what is the digestion time frame look like as you go forward?

知道了。然後，也許我可以回顧一下你們提供的全年收入成長 1% 到 4% 的指南，直到你們了解外部的宏觀環境。有沒有辦法思考不同地區的成長如何？我知道北美似乎是一個對你來說比較弱的地方，但是當你回顧歷史時，當你與北美公司經歷過這個消化期時，這是一個一二季度的現象嗎？或者您認為可以更長時間地以某種方式給予他們在大流行期間投入多少產品？是否有關於跨地域增長如何分解的任何顏色？那麼接下來的消化時間範圍是怎麼樣的呢？

As we look into '24, we think that we will particularly be growing in the international space. We'll have a higher growth rate than average there, that Americas is probably lower, and the GCN will probably be in between those 2. That's how we think about it as we enter the year.

當我們展望 24 世紀時，我們認為我們將特別在國際領域取得成長。我們在那裡的成長率將高於平均水平，美洲可能會較低，而 GCN 可能會介於這兩者之間。這就是我們在進入這一年時的想法。

The other part of your question around what have been the digested. And I'm really sort of honing in on sort of North America Tier 1s. I think it was sort of overused word in the last couple of years, unprecedented around the sort of whiplash of supply chain.

你問題的另一部分是關於已經消化的內容。我確實正在磨練北美一級。我認為這個詞在過去幾年裡被過度使用了，在供應鏈的鞭打中是前所未有的。

And you can see, listen, our revenues were up 21%. So that's a lot of equipment for these cloud providers and service providers to digest. I think the cloud players were the first to see the issue and are clearly coming out the other side. We're seeing signs that many of the service providers are coming out the other side of this.

你可以看到，聽著，我們的收入成長了 21%。因此，這些雲端提供者和服務提供者需要消化大量設備。我認為雲端玩家是第一個看到這個問題的人，顯然已經站在了另一邊。我們看到有跡象表明許多服務提供者正在走出困境。

But it's really the precise timing of that. We think it's probably midyear about this last quarter. And I think what we said last quarter was another couple of quarters of digestion on the Tier 1s. And I I think that's probably a view that we still maintain. So sort of midway through our fiscal year as we start to come out of our Q2 into Q3, we expect them to get back to collectively to normal order cycles.

但這確實是準確的時機。我們認為最後一個季度可能是年中。我認為我們上個季度所說的是一級市場的另外幾季的消化。我認為這可能是我們仍然堅持的觀點。因此，在我們財年的中期，當我們開始從第二季進入第三季時，我們預計他們將集體恢復到正常的訂單週期。

The next question comes from Tal Liani with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的塔爾·利亞尼。

Yes, First, just -- would you mind to repeat your revenue growth targets for next year? We have an internal disagreement here about what you said we need a confirmation. I want to ask a question about your participation or your -- the impact of your business of the carrier efforts to reduce spending. So we're seeing kind of Nokia losing share because of migration to open RAN. And at the core, carriers are trying to adopt new technologies that are much lower in spending or require much less spending. So their CapEx to revenue ratio can go down over time. In that kind of environment over the next few years, what are the implications for Ciena? And what are the areas where you would be exposed to these efforts? And what are the areas that there's no exposure.

是的，首先，您介意重複一下明年的營收成長目標嗎？對於您所說的需要確認的內容，我們有內部分歧。我想問一個關於您的參與或您的業務對運營商減少支出的努力的影響的問題。因此，我們看到諾基亞因為遷移到開放 RAN 而失去了市場份額。從本質上講，營運商正在嘗試採用支出低得多或需要支出少得多的新技術。因此，他們的資本支出與收入之比可能會隨著時間的推移而下降。未來幾年在這種環境下，對 Ciena 有何影響？您將在哪些領域進行這些工作？還有哪些區域是沒有暴露的。

Just to be clear, Tal, we guided revenue for '24 to be in a range of 1% to 4% up. We guided Q1 to be $980 million to $1.06 billion. That's what we said and mid-40s gross margin in both cases.

需要明確的是，Tal，我們指導 24 年的收入成長在 1% 到 4% 的範圍內。我們預計第一季營收為 9.8 億至 10.6 億美元。這就是我們所說的，兩種情況下的毛利率都在 40 多歲左右。

In terms of the second part of your -- well, the main question, Tal, in terms of the service providers, what we're seeing from them is exactly as you say, they're trying to optimize as usual, their networks, their span, their whole sort of financial model. And frankly, overall from that, we're incredibly well placed. When you think about we've got the leading technology with spectral efficiency, which is a massive sort of cost saver for them.

就你的第二部分而言——好吧，主要問題，塔爾，就服務提供者而言，我們從他們那裡看到的正是你所說的，他們正在像往常一樣嘗試優化他們的網絡，他們的跨度，他們的整個財務模式。坦白說，總體而言，我們處於非常有利的位置。當你想到我們擁有領先的頻譜效率技術時，這對他們來說是一種巨大的成本節省。

And by the way, we've got leadership there now and we're about to extend that with WaveLogic 6. So the timing of that could not be better. If I think about it architecturally, their biggest costs are around their whole metro infrastructure, which they're looking to simplify -- and again, from an architectural point of view, adaptive IP plays incredibly well into that. It's a much more simplified, lower-cost architecture, and we've already had significant wins with them, and they will be rolled out over the course of the next 2 to 3 years.

順便說一句，我們現在已經在這方面取得了領先地位，並且我們即將透過 WaveLogic 6 來擴展這一點。因此，時機再好不過了。如果我從架構上考慮，他們最大的成本是圍繞他們的整個地鐵基礎設施，他們希望簡化這些基礎設施——而且，從架構的角度來看，自適應IP在這方面發揮了令人難以置信的作用。這是一個更簡化、成本更低的架構，我們已經在其中取得了重大勝利，並將在未來 2 到 3 年內推出。

So as I step back from this absorption short-term absorption issue we've got, I actually feel quite bullish around the Tier 1 service providers, particularly in North America, perversely given the short-term dynamic because of exactly the dynamic that you're talking about.

因此，當我從我們所面臨的吸收短期吸收問題中退一步時，我實際上對一級服務提供者感到相當樂觀，特別是在北美，鑑於短期動態，我實際上感到非常樂觀，因為正是因為你的動態正在談論。

We've been first to market with every generation of optical technology, and each generation of optical technology represents a step function down in terms of cost per unit of bandwidth. So that's clearly a great benefit for their efforts to restrain CapEx and will come out with 1.6 terabits this year. So we're following that path.

我們率先將每一代光學技術推向市場，每一代光學技術都代表著每單位頻寬成本的逐步下降。因此，這顯然對他們限制資本支出的努力有很大好處，今年將達到 1.6 太比特。所以我們正在走這條路。

I would also add a sort of comment around because they've seen some of the stuff around concern around their budgets and the rest of it. I think, clearly, what you're seeing in North America is they're coming to the end of their RAN spend on 5G. That is tailing down. So they've got an opportunity to reduce their overall OpEx, but it's really an CapEx rather. But it's really around what are they going to spend it on? And I feel quite bullish around their spending on the -- taking cost out into their metro and transport networks.

我也會添加一些評論，因為他們已經看到了一些關於預算和其餘部分的擔憂。我認為，很明顯，你在北美看到的情況是他們在 5G 上的 RAN 支出即將結束。那就是尾隨。因此，他們有機會減少整體營運支出，但這實際上是資本支出。但這實際上是關於他們將把錢花在什麼地方？我對他們在地鐵和交通網絡上的支出感到非常樂觀。

And just to mention one other trend that they are really focused on is the whole concept of sustainability, meaning power. And again, each generation of WaveLogic technology provides a much lower power footprint and we're contributing to that as well. So frankly, our development plays right into their needs, which is why we've been able to do so well in that market.

順便提一下他們真正關注的另一個趨勢，那就是永續發展的整個概念，即力量。同樣，每一代 WaveLogic 技術都提供了低得多的功耗，我們也為此做出了貢獻。坦白說，我們的開發正好滿足了他們的需求，這就是我們能夠在該市場做得如此出色的原因。

The next question comes from Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的梅塔·馬歇爾。

This is Karan Juvekar on for Morgan Stanley. So I guess the first question, I guess, how should we think about the telco versus non-telco customer mix as we go across next year? Would it be fair to say generally flat sequentially from fourth quarter levels just as service provider remains a little constrained. And then, I guess, as that service provider spend does come back towards midyear or towards the end of the year, I guess, how should we think about a more normalized run rate contribution from here?

我是摩根士丹利的卡蘭尤韋卡 (Karan Juvekar)。所以我想第一個問題是，明年我們該如何考慮電信公司與非電信公司的客戶組合？公平地說，與第四季度的水平相比，總體持平，就像服務提供者仍然受到一些限制一樣。然後，我想，隨著服務提供者的支出確實會在年中或年底回升，我想，我們應該如何考慮從這裡開始的更正常化的運行率貢獻？

I think you will see service -- the mix, I think, well, from an order point of view, will skew more towards the service providers as they come back into the second half. Still expect very strong order flow from cloud. But if I look at it overall, I do think the service provider -- it will come back to a little more of the normalized balance, but I do think that Cloud is now a larger part of our business sort of direct. And I think it might not continue at the levels it at right now in absolute percentage share terms with service providers. But I think the service providers will come back stronger in the second half. So it will be blended this year is another way of saying that.

我認為你會看到服務——我認為，從訂單的角度來看，當他們回到下半年時，這種組合將更多地向服務提供者傾斜。仍然預計來自雲端的訂單流會非常強勁。但如果我從整體上看，我確實認為服務提供者——它將恢復到更多的正常化平衡，但我確實認為雲端現在是我們直接業務的更大一部分。我認為，從與服務提供者的絕對份額來看，它可能不會繼續保持目前的水平。但我認為下半年服務提供者將會變得更加強大。所以今年它將被混合，這是另一種說法。

Yes. Okay. That makes a lot of sense. And then just one more -- one follow-up. So I know inventories ended up a little bit higher than you were expecting. I would just -- and you mentioned just shift of product mix to customers. Is there any more detail you can give? And maybe on that $250 million to $300 million number you gave for next year on inventories coming down, the linearity of that across next year would be helpful.

是的。好的。這很有意義。然後還有一個——一個後續行動。所以我知道庫存最終比你預期的要高一些。我只是——你提到了將產品組合轉移給客戶。能提供更多詳細資訊嗎？也許根據您給出的明年庫存下降的 2.5 億至 3 億美元的數字，明年的線性關係會有所幫助。

Yes. On the question of the inventory level, really, it reflects the different customers make changes in their requested deliveries as we move through a quarter, it's very common. They do it very often. And frankly, if it goes for mix shifts from service providers to GCNs during the quarter, that results in higher levels of fixed -- of finished goods inventory. We saw that as we came through 2023.

是的。關於庫存水準的問題，實際上，它反映了不同的客戶在一個季度內對他們的交貨要求做出的改變，這是很常見的。他們經常這樣做。坦白說，如果在本季從服務提供者向 GCN 進行混合轉移，則會導致固定成品庫存水準更高。當我們進入 2023 年時，我們就看到了這一點。

We believe that as we move through fiscal year '24, that a lot of that movement inside of their delivery dates is going to settle down. And so we think that our finished goods inventory in particular, will come down during the year to a level that much more closely is in the level of what we've done in the past. Now I said we're going to reduce our inventory by $250 million to $300 million a year that will be generally pro rata across the year.

我們相信，隨著我們進入 24 財年，交付日期內的許多變動將會穩定下來。因此，我們認為，特別是我們的成品庫存，將在今年下降到更接近我們過去所做水平的水平。現在我說我們將每年減少庫存 2.5 億至 3 億美元，這通常是全年按比例進行的。

Okay. The next question comes from Ruben Roy with Stifel.

好的。下一個問題來自魯本·羅伊和斯蒂菲爾。

Gary, I had a question. In the prepared remarks, you made a comment about cloud customers beginning to provision networks for AI traffic. I'm wondering, as you get closer to your cloud customers and you start thinking about AI traffic relative to historical bandwidth growth. Would you say at this point that AI traffic would be incremental to sort of that 30% plus growth that we've seen historically. The reason I ask is just in the context of the 6% to 8% longer-term growth return to sort of the normalized growth doesn't seem like AI traffic would be incremental, but I'm just wondering how you're thinking about that.

加里，我有一個問題。在準備好的發言中，您對雲端客戶開始為人工智慧流量配置網路發表了評論。我想知道，當您越來越接近雲端客戶時，您就會開始考慮與歷史頻寬成長相關的人工智慧流量。您是否會說，此時人工智慧流量將增加到我們歷史上看到的 30% 以上的成長。我問的原因只是在 6% 到 8% 的長期成長恢復到正常化成長的背景下，人工智慧流量似乎不會增量，但我只是想知道你是如何考慮的。

No, listen, that's a great question. I mean, I think let me give you sort of a perspective on what we're seeing in right now. we're beginning to have the sort of first conversations around with the cloud providers where they're placing orders on us in advance of anticipation for some of the cloud traffic. I would say that they're working on the applications outside of sort of the ChatGPT versions that are out there now, they're working, obviously, on all of these various applications.

不，聽著，這是一個很好的問題。我的意思是，我想讓我對我們現在所看到的情況提供一些看法。我們開始與雲端供應商進行第一次對話，他們在預期一些雲端流量之前向我們下訂單。我想說的是，他們正在開發現有的 ChatGPT 版本之外的應用程序，顯然，他們正在開發所有這些不同的應用程式。

And I don't think anybody particularly has any sort of insight into what the Ruben the model for that will be from a traffic flow point of view. But I think we're all of the view that at some point, all of that's got to come out of the data center to get monetized. And it's -- no one really has the ability to sort of model that out, but we know it's big. None of that -- when we talk about sort of 6% to 8%, none of that has really taken that into account because we can't kind of model that.

我認為沒有人特別了解魯本模型從交通流的角度來看是什麼。但我認為我們都認為在某種程度上，所有這些都必須從資料中心出來才能貨幣化。沒有人真正有能力對其進行建模，但我們知道它很大。當我們談論 6% 到 8% 的時候，沒有一個真正考慮到這一點，因為我們無法對此進行建模。

But I think it's going to be -- my personal opinion, it's going to take traffic growth up, which has classically been in the sort of 30%. It's got to take that up. And so I think when will that be, the timing of it and exactly the model of it, I don't know. But my personal guess would be end of '24 coming into '25 when you start to see these additional applications come out of the data center. But we really haven't modeled -- been able to model that in our projections.

但我認為，我個人認為，這將導致流量成長，通常流量成長約為 30%。它必須接受這一點。所以我想那會是什麼時候，它的時間和確切的模型，我不知道。但我個人的猜測是 24 世紀末到 25 世紀，當你開始看到這些額外的應用程式從資料中心出來時。但我們確實還沒有建模——能夠在我們的預測中建模。

One of the industry analysts did come out recently with a view of a higher growth rate by 5% or 6% in terms of bandwidth demand as a result of AI.

一位產業分析師最近確實表示，人工智慧帶來的頻寬需求成長率將提高 5% 或 6%。

So close to like 40% going up from 30% to 40%. Yes.

從 30% 上升到 40%，接近 40%。是的。

I appreciate the detail both of you. And for a quick follow-up, I think Samik asked about the pluggables earlier. And I was just wondering, again, as you get closer to cloud customers, are they starting to ask you about optics inside of data center, I'm asking that at the European Optical Conference, there was a lot of discussion around coherent light, I'm just wondering kind of how you're thinking about potential opportunities inside as you go forward.

我很欣賞你們兩位的細節。為了快速跟進，我認為 Samik 早些時候詢問了可插拔的問題。我只是想知道，當你越來越接近雲客戶時，他們是否開始詢問你有關數據中心內部光學的問題，我問在歐洲光學會議上，有很多關於相干光的討論，我只是想知道，在在你前進的過程中，你是如何思考內在潛在的機會的。

No. I think as we've sort of talked, we are very bullish around the opportunity to Intercept. As you think about what's going on in the data center, particularly with AI and the rest of it, traffic growth is going up dramatic inside the data center, where we have no exposure to that right now.

不。我認為正如我們所討論的那樣，我們非常看好 Intercept 的機會。當你思考資料中心正在發生的事情時，特別是人工智慧和其他方面，資料中心內部的流量正在急劇增長，而我們目前還沒有接觸到這一點。

And I think the timing for that is probably as we get to '25, something like that. But I think there is an inflection point there from all of the conversations we're having with them were coherent light, as you described, really should bed into the perfect application for them. And clearly, we're the world's leader in coherent technology. And we do see an intercept into there, and we're investing in that, as Jim has said, we are doing a variant of WaveLogic6 that will absolutely be focused on the inside the data center applications.

我認為這個時機可能是在我們到 25 歲的時候，類似的事情。但我認為，正如您所描述的，我們與他們進行的所有對話都是相干光，其中存在一個拐點，確實應該融入它們的完美應用中。顯然，我們是相干技術的世界領導者。我們確實看到了那裡的攔截，我們正在對此進行投資，正如 Jim 所說，我們正在做 WaveLogic6 的變體，它絕對會專注於資料中心應用程式內部。

Now again, we modeled that into our -- given it's sort of a '25 opportunity, we've not really taken a lot of consideration of that right now into the 3-year guide. But that clearly is a massive opportunity for us further out.

現在，我們再次將其模型化到我們的模型中——考慮到這是一個 25 年的機會，我們現在並沒有在 3 年指南中真正考慮到這一點。但這對我們來說顯然是一個巨大的機會。

The next question comes from Alex Henderson with Needham.

下一個問題來自 Alex Henderson 和 Needham。

I wanted to go back to Tal's question but with a very different spin on it. It strikes me that the decision to move to Ericsson and downplay Nokia was a function of the absolute horrific performance of the 5G core, which isn't working properly in almost any location. And as a result, the inability, therefore, to drive out the improved functionality that the 5G core would deliver such as network slicing and other elements that are really driving revenue differential for the largest the Tier 1s.

我想回到塔爾的問題，但有一個非常不同的解釋。讓我驚訝的是，轉向愛立信並淡化諾基亞的決定是由於 5G 核心性能絕對可怕，該核心幾乎在任何地方都無法正常工作。因此，無法推動 5G 核心提供的改進功能，例如網路切片和其他真正推動最大一級供應商收入差異的元素。

And in turn, that's created a situation where they can't monetize 5G the way they had expected. And as a result of that, are cutting back CapEx on 5G because they can't get it to work properly. Now the question I've got for you is does that result in an aggregate reduction in CapEx across the board? Or do they say, "Yes, I need to fix 5G core, and that in turn means I need to take some time to do that and let's shift spending away from 5G into other areas that are necessities like optical -- or does it mean that they cut optical spending as well as they are under pressure given the lack of monetization?

反過來，這造成了他們無法以預期方式透過 5G 貨幣化的情況。因此，他們正在削減 5G 的資本支出，因為他們無法讓它正常工作。現在我要問你的問題是，這是否會導致資本支出全面減少？或者他們會說，「是的，我需要修復 5G 核心，這反過來意味著我需要花一些時間來做到這一點，讓我們將支出從 5G 轉移到光學等必需品領域 - 或者這是否意味著他們削減了光學支出，並且由於缺乏貨幣化而面臨壓力？

I believe, Alex, that they have spoken about the fact that their spend on RAN is coming down. Now I don't know what's driving that in terms of the performance of the 5G core, I just don't know. But what everything we've seen publicly and everything that we have heard from our customers is that their spending other than RAN is going to be sort of flattish as we move into '24 and that their spend with us is going to be flat to maybe a little bit up.

Alex，我相信他們已經談到了他們在 RAN 上的支出正在下降的事實。現在我不知道是什麼推動了 5G 核心的性能，我只是不知道。但我們公開看到的一切以及我們從客戶那裡聽到的一切是，隨著我們進入 24 年，他們除 RAN 之外的支出將持平，並且他們在我們身上的支出將持平到可能有點漲了。

So that's what we know from what we see in the industry and what we see from our customers. I don't -- it's hard to know how they're going to allocate all that, but we don't see a big effect from any of their decisions on RAN today.

這就是我們從行業中看到的以及從客戶那裡看到的。我不知道——很難知道他們將如何分配所有這些，但我們今天沒有看到他們對 RAN 的任何決定產生重大影響。

Second question is on the inventory side. A number of companies have been forced to take some inventory write-downs as a result of the very large build of inventory that's happened over the last couple of years. I didn't hear any mention of that with you guys. Have you actually absorbed some inventory write-downs that are built into the numbers and offset them with improved pricing?

第二個問題是庫存方面。由於過去幾年庫存積壓巨大，許多公司被迫進行一些庫存減記。我沒有聽到你們提到這一點。您是否真的吸收了數字中包含的一些庫存減記，並透過提高定價來抵消它們？

Or is just improved pricing? And can you give us some sense of what the magnitude of the reduction in prices in the quarter? And how you think that plays out as we go forward in time and you get your supply chain back into normal conditions?

還是只是提高了定價？您能否讓我們了解本季價格下降的幅度？隨著時間的推移，您認為隨著時間的推移，您的供應鏈恢復正常狀態，情況會如何發展？

The first thing I'd say is we don't see any material risk to a big inventory write-off. We do a very careful look at our inventory down to the component level, compare it to demand in each of our products and to the components that are built into those products. And so we don't feel that there's a material risk of a big inventory charge. We do -- every quarter, we have what we call excess and obsolete charges in the range of $4 million to $6 million, and we think that will continue.

我要說的第一件事是，我們認為大規模庫存註銷不會帶來任何重大風險。我們非常仔細地檢查我們的庫存，直至組件級別，將其與我們每種產品的需求以及這些產品中內建的組件進行比較。因此，我們認為不存在大量庫存費用的重大風險。我們每季都會收取 400 萬至 600 萬美元的超額費用和過時費用，我們認為這種情況將會持續下去。

As far as the margin situation, the margin situation is really driven by our mix and a bit of component cost reduction because of the fact that we're no longer buying as much from the broker market as we did last year and earlier this year. By the way, we do expect an improvement in that as we go into next year, which is why we're confident in guiding to the mid-40s gross margin range. And we think that's going to be less than 100 basis points in terms of our cost next year.

就保證金情況而言，保證金情況實際上是由我們的組合和部分組件成本降低所推動的，因為我們不再像去年和今年早些時候那樣從經紀商市場購買那麼多產品。順便說一句，我們確實預計明年這一情況會有所改善，這就是為什麼我們有信心將毛利率引導至 40 多歲左右的範圍。我們認為，就我們明年的成本而言，這將不到 100 個基點。

The next question comes from George Notter with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑弗里斯的喬治·諾特。

Maybe just to continue on the gross margin question. I was pretty impressed by this quarter's gross margins given the much higher mix of cloud provider revenue and then also the big spike up in services revenue and installation revenue. Can you talk about what was going on this quarter on gross margins? Is there something there kind of underneath -- I know you said favorable product mix, I think, Jim, also, but more context there would be great.

也許只是繼續討論毛利率問題。鑑於雲端供應商收入的組合要高得多，而且服務收入和安裝收入也大幅增長，本季的毛利率給我留下了深刻的印象。能談談本季毛利率的情況嗎？是不是有什麼東西在裡面——我知道你也說過有利的產品組合，我想，吉姆，但更多的背景會很棒。

It's interesting, George. When you think about the gross margins across our customer base, although there -- if you look at the web scale versus the service providers, they're in very different businesses, but they are very big companies and they have choices, and we have to compete for the business. Now we are fortunate and blessed that we have the best optical gear in the world, and that helps in the competition.

這很有趣，喬治。當你考慮我們客戶群的毛利率時，儘管如果你看看網路規模與服務供應商，他們的業務非常不同，但他們是非常大的公司，他們有選擇，而我們有來爭奪業務。現在我們很幸運，我們擁有世界上最好的光學設備，這有助於我們的競爭。

So when you think about that across our customer base, the gross margins are not all that dissimilar. Yes, in particular applications or particular products, there are differences. But across the customer base, they're not all that different. The big difference in our gross margin is really mix. And then that is particularly with respect to in the optical business, line systems versus capacity adds.

因此，當你考慮我們整個客戶群時，毛利率並沒有那麼不同。是的，在特定應用或特定產品中，存在差異。但在整個客戶群中，他們並沒有那麼不同。我們毛利率的巨大差異實際上是混合的。尤其是在光學業務中，線路系統與容量增加之間的關係。

And line systems are just by the nature of the way the business works, our lower gross margin, capacity adds are higher. We -- as you remember, we came into this year expecting a very high mix of line systems. We sort of got to that mix, maybe not quite as high as line systems mix as we thought. And that's why our gross margin was impacted in addition to the couple of hundred basis points at the component costs cost us. As we move into next year, I think we'll have both probably a little improved mix again and a lower amount of component costs. So we do expect an improvement in our gross margins next year.

生產線系統只是由業務運作方式的本質決定的，我們的毛利率較低，產能增加較高。正如您所記得的，我們進入今年時期望生產線系統的組合非常高。我們有點達到了這種混合，也許沒有我們想像的那麼高。這就是為什麼我們的毛利率除了組件成本增加了幾百個基點之外還受到了影響。當我們進入明年時，我認為我們可能會再次稍微改進組合併降低組件成本。因此，我們確實預計明年的毛利率會有所改善。

Got it. Great. And then just as a quick follow-up. Could you give us an update on delivery of the WaveLogic 6 product. I know -- I think you guys had said GA in the first half of next year, but can you just confirm that that's on track? And when do you expect customers to start testing the products.

知道了。偉大的。然後作為快速跟進。您能為我們提供有關 WaveLogic 6 產品交付的最新資訊嗎？我知道——我想你們已經說過明年上半年正式上市，但你們能確認這一切都在照計畫進行嗎？您預計客戶什麼​​時候開始測試產品？

Yes. So yes, it's absolutely on track. We've got orders already as we shared in some of the prepared remarks, and we're beginning to engage with customers then coming into our lab to view our various variants of it. So as we turn the year here and get into our Q1 -- further into Q1, Q2, we'd expect to start to increase that engagement with customers. And so the release would be mid-'24. And we're on track for it. Absolutely.

是的。所以是的，它絕對走上正軌。正如我們在一些準備好的評論中分享的那樣，我們已經收到了訂單，我們開始與客戶接觸，然後進入我們的實驗室查看我們的各種變體。因此，當我們進入今年第一季——進一步進入第一季、第二季時，我們預計將開始增加與客戶的互動。所以發佈時間是 24 年中期。我們正在朝著這個目標邁進。絕對地。

The next question comes from Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自西蒙·利奧波德和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

I want to start off with the commentary you offered about growing faster than the market might sort of gloss over the fact that you're actually in more than one market. And so I'd like to hear sort of your take on how the growth rates may be different in your assumptions for your packet optical platforms versus the routing and switching segment? Because I'm assuming you're going to see much faster growth from routing and switching, but just want to see what's baked into the overall guidance.

我想從您提供的有關成長速度快於市場的評論開始，這可能掩蓋了您實際上身處多個市場。因此，我想聽聽您對分組光學平台與路由和交換領域的成長率的假設有何不同的看法？因為我假設您將看到路由和交換的更快成長，但只想看看總體指南中包含了哪些內容。

It's a fair question, Simon. What I'd say, though, is when you look at network gear, whether you're talking about optical are routing and switching. The underlying growth rates are not terribly different. They're in the low to mid-single digits. What's different for us is that with our expanded set of capabilities in routing and switching the TAM or the available market, which is out there for us is growing. So yes, we do expect to grow faster in routing and switching over the next year and over the next several years, then we grow in our optical business. I still believe that we will be able to take some share in optical.

這是一個公平的問題，西蒙。不過，我想說的是，當您查看網路設備時，無論您談論的是光纖還是路由和交換。基本成長率並沒有太大不同。它們處於中低個位數。對我們來說，不同之處在於，隨著我們在路由和交換 TAM 或可用市場方面的能力不斷擴大，我們的市場正在不斷增長。所以，是的，我們確實預計明年和未來幾年路由和交換業務將成長更快，然後我們的光學業務也會成長。我仍然相信我們能夠在光學領域佔據一些份額。

But as Gary said earlier, we have a large share now. And the ability to continue to take share is a bit limited. We'll hold on to our share and grow it a bit, but where we expect to really show growth is routing and switching.

但正如加里之前所說，我們現在擁有很大的份額。而且繼續搶佔份額的能力有點有限。我們將保持我們的份額並稍微增加一點，但我們期望真正顯示成長的是路由和交換。

And that makes sense to me just to confirm that you're -- given sort of your modest position and product cycles, routing and switching could conceivably grow at a double-digit rate in the fiscal year within this forecast. Is that fair?

這對我來說是有意義的，只是為了確認你——考慮到你的適度地位和產品週期，路由和交換在這個預測的財年中可能會以兩位數的速度增長。這樣公平嗎？

Yes. Yes. That is absolutely fair. So listen, we expect to grow in optical, notwithstanding the sort of industry analyst view that the market is flat. We will do better than the market. There's no doubt about that. But I think routing and switching, we'd expect to be double-digit growth because it's also -- we're the challenger there, as Jim said, it's the law of smaller numbers.

是的。是的。這是絕對公平的。因此，聽著，儘管產業分析師認為市場表現平淡，但我們預期光學業務將會成長。我們會做得比市場更好。毫無疑問。但我認為路由和交換，我們預計將實現兩位數的成長，因為我們也是那裡的挑戰者，正如吉姆所說，這是較小數字的法則。

I mean we're about $0.5 billion now in that routing and switching business, it grew about 27% last year. I don't think it will grow as much as that this year. But we're almost -- we've still got a fairly low market share there.

我的意思是，我們現在的路由和交換業務收入約為 5 億美元，去年成長了約 27%。我認為今年不會成長那麼多。但我們幾乎——我們在那裡的市場份額仍然相當低。

Yes. No, this is in line with what I was thinking. So I appreciate the clarification. I don't think it's well appreciated, which was the point of my question. And just my follow-up here is really getting an update on what you see, particularly in Europe, on the Huawei swaps, it's really a jump for a number of folks competing for that and some of your competitors have announced Huawei displacements. I'd like to hear your take on how you see that playing out.

是的。不，這和我的想法是一致的。所以我很感謝你的澄清。我認為它沒有得到很好的讚賞，這就是我的問題的重點。我的後續行動實際上是了解您所看到的最新情況，特別是在歐洲，關於華為交換，這對於許多競爭者來說確實是一個飛躍，並且您的一些競爭對手已經宣布了華為的替代。我想聽聽您對此事的看法。

When I think about Europe and the Huawei displacement, I sort of bifurcate the RAN piece from the sort of what I would call generally the sort of transport and routing and switching piece to it. Obviously, on the RAN, there's been a lot of geopolitical pressure on to the 5G and the rest of it, and that's sort of well understood.

當我想到歐洲和華為的取代時，我將 RAN 部分與我通常所說的傳輸、路由和交換部分分開。顯然，在 RAN 上，5G 和其他部分面臨著很大的地緣政治壓力，這是可以理解的。

I think on the stuff that's already in the ground there, and there's a significant share that they've got on the transport and routing switching side and even broadband side as well that is going to take longer. It's a multiyear change out, a, because of the operational challenges of moving them across.

我認為，在已經存在的東西上，他們在傳輸和路由交換方面，甚至在寬頻方面佔有很大份額，這將需要更長的時間。這是一個多年的改變，a，因為移動它們的操作挑戰。

So what we're seeing on most of the carriers is when they get to a certain inflection point where they are going to make decisions around their next-generation stuff or investments, that is when they are making the change. And we are seeing that. In fact, we won recently in Scandinavia, a Tier 1 player that exactly that shift over on the transport.

因此，我們在大多數營運商身上看到的是，當他們到達某個轉折點時，他們將圍繞下一代產品或投資做出決策，那就是他們做出改變的時候。我們正在看到這一點。事實上，我們最近在斯堪的納維亞半島獲勝，這是一個在運輸上轉移的一級玩家。

So we are continuing to get more than our fair share there. I think it will be a multiyear program. So over the next 2 to 3 years as they change out their transport piece, but it's a great opportunity for us. There's no question about that. But we're in I know everybody asked me what innings we're in. So I guess we'll use a baseball analogy for that, shall we. We're in about the third inning of that.

因此，我們將繼續獲得超出我們應得份額的份額。我認為這將是多年期計劃。因此，在接下來的 2 到 3 年裡，他們會更換運輸零件，但這對我們來說是一個很好的機會。毫無疑問。但我們在，我知道每個人都問我我們在哪一局。所以我想我們會用棒球來比喻，好嗎？我們正處於大約第三局。

And we'll take one last question.

我們將回答最後一個問題。

And that question will come from Michael Genovese with Rosen Black.

這個問題將由邁克爾·吉諾維斯和羅森·布萊克提出。

For the sake of time, I'll just ask one question, and I'll forgo the follow-up. I appreciate you getting me in here. When I look at the 3 year -- actually, you know what, I take that back. I haven't asked that question. But when I look at the 3-year guidance of 6% to 8% with this year being lower, I mean that implies an acceleration. And hearing about everything going on, particularly more cloud, the international opportunities and then getting into the data center with 800G in about a year, I'm wondering if there's not an implication here that the long-term growth rate of the company has moved up slightly from 6% to 8%. It might not be 10% to 12%, but it might be higher than 6% to 8%. Am I -- do you have any thoughts on that?

由於時間關係，我只問一個問題，後續不再贅述。我很感激你帶我來這裡。當我回顧這三年時——實際上，你知道嗎，我收回了那句話。我沒有問過這個問題。但當我看到 6% 至 8% 的 3 年指導且今年較低時，我的意思是這意味著加速。聽說正在發生的一切，特別是更多的雲端、國際機會，然後在大約一年內進入 800G 的資料中心，我想知道這是否意味著公司的長期成長率已經發生了變化從6%小幅上升至8%。可能不是10%到12%，但可能高於6%到8%。我——你對此有什麼想法嗎？

Well, what I'd say is this. As you just did the math, clearly, our guide for the year and our guide for the 3 years implies higher growth rates in the 2 years after '24. And that's really because we are going to be hitting our stride in a couple of markets, including routing and switching and PON.

嗯，我想說的是這個。正如您剛剛計算的那樣，很明顯，我們的今年指南和 3 年指南意味著 24 年後的 2 年增長率更高。這實際上是因為我們將在幾個市場取得進展，包括路由和交換以及 PON。

So both of those are going to drive very good growth rates. I also think that the Huawei displacement will start to gain some momentum as we move through the next couple of years. So yes, we do believe that the 2 years following '24 will be higher.

因此，這兩者都將推動非常好的成長率。我還認為，隨著未來幾年的發展，華為的取代將開始獲得一些動力。所以，是的，我們確實相信 24 年後的兩年會更高。

Beyond that, what I'd say is we've given you 3 years, Mike, that's a long time for us, and we feel great about the future, but we're not willing to say it's going to be higher than 6% to 8% beyond that.

除此之外，我想說的是，我們給了你3 年時間，麥克，這對我們來說是很長的一段時間，我們對未來感覺很好，但我們不願意說它會高於6 %超過該數字的 8%。

Fair enough, Jim. Sorry, Greg, do you want to say something?

很公平，吉姆。抱歉，格雷格，你有話要說嗎？

No, I was just going to reaffirm that, obviously, if you do the math talking about accelerating growth, once we get through this sort of absorption with the Tier 1s in North America this year, we feel very good around the out years, not just for the reasons that Jim said, but you also got -- also got WaveLogic 6 coming along here in its various variants as well. So we should be firing on all cylinders here.

不，我只是要重申，顯然，如果你對加速成長進行數學計算，一旦我們今年完成了北美一級公司的這種吸收，我們在未來幾年感覺非常好，而不是只是出於Jim 所說的原因，但您也獲得了WaveLogic 6 的各種變體。所以我們應該全力以赴。

Perfect. And then finally, just for that quick follow-up. I mean, just help us with the definition of mid-40s. I mean does mid-40s mean 45%? Or I guess it could be a 44% as well. Could you just help us with how you think about mid-40s.

完美的。最後，只是為了快速跟進。我的意思是，請幫我們定義 40 歲左右。我的意思是40多歲就代表45%嗎？或者我猜也可能是 44%。您能告訴我們您對 40 多歲的看法嗎？

Maybe get my Webster out, I don't know. This year, we did 43 points something and what that message is intended to give you is that we're going to improve to a number that centers around 45%. I'm not saying it's going to be 45%. I'm saying it centers around 45%.

也許把我的韋伯斯特拿出來，我不知道。今年，我們做了 43 點，這一訊息旨在向您傳達的訊息是，我們將提高到 45% 左右的數字。我並不是說會是 45%。我是說這個比例集中在 45% 左右。

Thanks, Mike. Thank you all for joining us today. As we enter the holiday season in the new year, well, it's all hoped for piece and goodwill. Thank you for joining us.

謝謝，麥克。感謝大家今天加入我們。當我們進入新的一年的假期時，一切都充滿了希望和善意。感謝您加入我們。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。