Ciena Corp (CIEN) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Ciena fiscal fourth quarter and year-end 2024 financial results conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Ciena 第四季和 2024 年底財務業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Gregg Lampf, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意此事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Gregg Lampf。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Ciena's 2024 fiscal fourth quarter and year-end results conference call. On the call today is Gary Smith, President and CEO; and Jim Moylan, CFO. Scott McFeely, Executive Adviser, is also with us for Q&A.

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加 Ciena 2024 財年第四季和年終業績電話會議。今天的電話會議由總裁兼執行長加里史密斯 (Gary Smith) 主持。和財務長吉姆·莫伊蘭。執行顧問 Scott McFeely 也與我們一起參加問答。

In addition to this call and the press release, we have posted to the Investors section of our website an accompanying investor presentation that reflects the discussion as well as certain highlighted items from the fiscal quarter and year. Our comments today speak to our recent performance, our view on current market dynamics and drivers of our business, as well as the discussion of our financial output.

除了本次電話會議和新聞稿之外，我們還在網站的投資者部分發布了一份隨附的投資者演示文稿，其中反映了討論以及本財季和年度的某些重點項目。我們今天的評論涉及我們最近的業績、我們對當前市場動態和業務驅動因素的看法，以及對我們財務產出的討論。

Today's discussion includes certain adjusted or non-GAAP measures in the end of results of operations. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results is included in today's press release.

今天的討論包括營運結果中的某些調整後或非公認會計原則措施。今天的新聞稿中包含了這些非公認會計準則衡量指標與我們公認的會計準則結果的協調表。

Before turning the call over to Gary, I'll remind you that during this call, we'll be making certain forward-looking statements. Such statements, including our quarterly and annual guidance and our long-term targets, commentary on market dynamics, and the discussion of our opportunities and strategy are based on current expectations, forecasts, and assumptions regarding the company and its markets, which include risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements discussed today.

在將電話轉給加里之前，我要提醒您，在這次電話會議中，我們將做出某些前瞻性陳述。此類聲明，包括我們的季度和年度指導以及我們的長期目標、對市場動態的評論以及對我們機會和策略的討論，均基於有關公司及其市場的當前預期、預測和假設，其中包括風險和風險。

Assumptions relating to outlook whether mentioned on this call are included in the investor presentation that we will post short after are an important part of such forward-looking statements, and we encourage you to consider that. Our forward-looking statements should also be viewed in the context of the risk factors detailed in our most recent 10-Q filing and [our] 10-K filing, which we expect to file with the SEC by December 24.

與前景相關的假設（無論是否在本次電話會議中提及）包含在我們稍後發布的投資者介紹中，是此類前瞻性聲明的重要組成部分，我們鼓勵您考慮這一點。我們的前瞻性陳述也應該結合我們最近的 10-Q 文件和[我們的] 10-K 文件中詳細說明的風險因素來看待，我們預計將在 12 月 24 日之前向 SEC 提交這些文件。

Ciena assumes no obligation to update the information discussed in this conference call, whether as a result of information, future events or otherwise. As always, we'll allow for as much Q&A as possible today. We ask to limit yourselves to one question and one follow-up.

Ciena 不承擔更新本次電話會議中討論的資訊的義務，無論是由於資訊、未來事件或其他原因。像往常一樣，今天我們將盡可能多地進行問答。我們要求您只提出一個問題和一項後續行動。

Before I get started, I wanted to remind everyone of our webinar entitled Expanding Leadership Optical Ciena's Strategy for Growth in AI and Data Center Markets. This can be found on the Events and Presentation page of the Investors section of our website. The webinar and recorded Q&A that is very well received and should be helpful resources as you consider Ciena's positioning and opportunities.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家注意我們的網路研討會，題為「擴大領導力光學 Ciena 的人工智慧和資料中心市場成長策略」。這可以在我們網站投資者部分的活動和演示頁面上找到。網路研討會和錄製的問答非常受歡迎，在您考慮 Ciena 的定位和機會時應該是有用的資源。

With that, I'll turn it over to Gary.

有了這個，我會把它交給加里。

Good morning, everyone. Today, we reported strong fiscal fourth quarter results, including revenue of $1.12 billion. Notably, orders in the quarter were once again above revenue representing the second quarter in a row of book-to-bill above 1, and recall that we had expected orders to be below revenue when we spoke with you in September.

大家早安。今天，我們公佈了強勁的第四季財報，其中營收達 11.2 億美元。值得注意的是，本季訂單再次高於收入，代表第二季訂單出貨比連續高於 1，回想一下，當我們在 9 月與您交談時，我們預計訂單將低於收入。

We had several significant achievements in the quarter. First and foremost, WaveLogic 6 Extreme became generally available, locking our position as the only provider of 1.6 terabit capable coherent modems in the market today, further extending our technology leadership. We also took revenue for WaveLogic 6e in Q4, having shipped to multiple customers, many of which have announced their trials and deployments, including Verizon, euNetworks, and One New Zealand.

我們在本季取得了幾項重大成就。首先也是最重要的是，WaveLogic 6 Extreme 全面上市，鎖定了我們作為當今市場上唯一提供 1.6 太比特相干調變解調器供應商的地位，進一步擴大了我們的技術領先地位。我們還獲得了第四季度 WaveLogic 6e 的收入，該產品已交付給多個客戶，其中許多客戶已經宣布進行試驗和部署，包括 Verizon、euNetworks 和 One New Zealand。

Notably, Q4 was our largest quarter ever for shipments of line systems, led by our next-generation intelligent line system, RLS, primarily to large cloud providers. We also, in the quarter, continued to gain strong momentum with pluggables. At the end of Q4, total shipments to date of WaveLogic 5 Nano were more than 43,000.

值得注意的是，第四季度是我們有史以來線路系統出貨量最大的季度，其中以我們的下一代智慧線路系統 RLS 為首，主要針對大型雲端供應商。在本季度，我們還在可插拔方面繼續獲得強勁勢頭。截至第四季末，WaveLogic 5 Nano 迄今的總出貨量超過 43,000 顆。

And also in Q4, we announced our WaveLogic 6 Nano 1.6 terabit coherent light pluggable which is designed to optimize performance and efficiency of data center and campus networks as they scale to support traffic from growth in cloud, machine learning, and AI.

同樣在第四季度，我們發布了WaveLogic 6 Nano 1.6 太比特相干光可插拔晶片，旨在優化資料中心和園區網路的性能和效率，因為它們可以擴展以支援雲端、機器學習和人工智慧增長帶來的流量。

Moving back to our Q4 financials. We reported adjusted gross margin of 41.6%, which was lower than expected due to a larger than typical provision for excess and obsolescence in our inventory. Jim will provide additional detail on this momentarily.

回到我們第四季的財務狀況。我們公佈的調整後毛利率為 41.6%，低於預期，因為我們的庫存過剩和過時準備金高於典型水準。吉姆將立即提供有關此問題的更多詳細資訊。

The full fiscal year, we delivered revenues of $4 billion. Also in both the fourth quarter and fiscal year, we had two 10% customers: a Tier 1 North American service provider and a major cloud provider. I think this is further evidence that purchasing patterns of North American service providers continue to improve with supply and demand coming into balance as they work through inventory buildup from prior periods.

整個財年，我們實現了 40 億美元的營收。同樣在第四季和本財年，我們都有兩個 10% 的客戶：一家北美一級服務供應商和一家主要雲端供應商。我認為這進一步證明北美服務提供者的採購模式持續改善，隨著供應和需求在前期庫存累積過程中趨於平衡。

During Q4, service provider orders in North America actually outpaced revenue for the first time in nearly two years. Also, in addition to our 10% cloud customers in Q4, 4 of our top 10 customers for the year were indeed cloud providers.

第四季度，北美服務提供者的訂單實際上近兩年來首次超過了收入。此外，除了第四季度 10% 的雲端客戶外，今年排名前 10 名的客戶中有 4 個確實是雲端供應商。

Let me now touch on the broader market landscape and really what's driving our business today and going forward. As always, bandwidth demand remains the most consistent driver for our business and growing at about 30% per year over the last couple of decades consistently.

現在讓我談談更廣泛的市場格局，以及推動我們今天和未來業務發展的真正因素。像往常一樣，頻寬需求仍然是我們業務最穩定的驅動力，並且在過去幾十年中每年持續成長約 30%。

With cloud and AI, now the lead drivers of demand, we believe bandwidth growth will rise above those historical levels over the coming years. And to be clear, AI is not just a data center phenomenon to monetize the massive AI super cycle of compute investments, traffic is already flowing out of the data center and impacting all parts of the network today. And we are beginning to see evidence of this in our business today in several ways, across service providers and cloud providers.

隨著雲端和人工智慧成為需求的主要驅動力，我們相信未來幾年頻寬成長將超過歷史水平。需要明確的是，人工智慧不僅僅是一種資料中心現象，可以透過運算投資的大規模人工智慧超級週期貨幣化，流量已經流出資料中心並影響當今網路的所有部分。我們現在開始在我們的業務中以多種方式看到這一點的證據，包括服務提供者和雲端提供者。

Our strategy is to take full advantage of the growth of cloud and AI traffic across multiple network segments and is threefold. First of all, we continue to extend our leadership and grow market share in our core business, inclusive of subsea, long haul Metro DCI, and increasingly, MOFN opportunities.

我們的策略是充分利用跨多個網段的雲端和人工智慧流量的成長，並且有三重策略。首先，我們繼續擴大我們在核心業務中的領導地位並擴大市場份額，包括海底、長途地鐵 DCI 以及越來越多的 MOFN 機會。

Today, cloud providers are making significant investments in large-scale infrastructure projects to support AI growth and deliver the necessary scaling and densification of fiber infrastructure across the network. For this, they require a next generation of intelligent line systems like our RLS photonic platform and wavelength solutions such as Waveserver, really to address the need for scalability, resilience and automation.

如今，雲端供應商正在對大型基礎設施項目進行大量投資，以支援人工智慧的成長，並在整個網路中提供必要的光纖基礎設施的擴展和緻密化。為此，他們需要下一代智慧線路系統（例如我們的 RLS 光子平台）和波長解決方案（例如 Waveserver），真正滿足可擴展性、彈性和自動化的需求。

And in fact, we support every major cloud provider with our RLS platform, which we codesigned with our cloud provider customers and is now their line system of choice.

事實上，我們透過 RLS 平台為每個主要雲端供應商提供支持，該平台是我們與雲端供應商客戶共同設計的，現在已成為他們選擇的線路系統。

On service providers, we have won every major next-generation optical infrastructure RFP recently issued by North American service providers proving that our coherent optics and optical systems are increasingly the de facto choice in these advanced network architectures as well. This is in part in the service provider world, driven by the increasing two significant opportunities for them, MOFN and multicloud networks.

在服務供應商方面，我們贏得了北美服務供應商最近發布的所有主要新一代光學基礎設施 RFP，證明我們的相干光學和光學系統也越來越成為這些先進網路架構中的實際選擇。這在一定程度上是在服務提供者領域，受到 MOFN 和多雲網路這兩個日益增長的重要機會的推動。

As a reminder, with MOFN, service providers are building dedicated private optical networks for cloud providers, enabling them to quickly extend their reach and better service customer demand. For multi-cloud networks, service providers are building out the robust networks that connect to and between cloud providers, enterprises, and other service providers.

需要提醒的是，服務供應商正在透過 MOFN 為雲端供應商建立專用的私有光網絡，使他們能夠快速擴展其覆蓋範圍並更好地服務客戶需求。對於多雲網絡，服務提供者正在建立連接雲端提供者、企業和其他服務提供者以及在雲端提供者、企業和其他服務提供者之間連接的強大網路。

Secondly, we aim to grow our addressable market into adjacencies where our foundational optical technologies provide a significant competitive advantage. And let me start with data center applications, which is a significant growth opportunity for Ciena with respect to AI within the metro data center campus as well as over time, inside the data center itself for our interconnects portfolio.

其次，我們的目標是將我們的目標市場擴展到我們的基礎光學技術提供顯著競爭優勢的鄰近地區。讓我從資料中心應用開始，這對 Ciena 來說是一個重大的成長機會，涉及城域資料中心園區內的人工智慧，以及隨著時間的推移，資料中心本身內部的互連產品組合。

As a general industry term, interconnects are really the infrastructure technologies that provide the critical connectivity between and within data centers and include both pluggables and component technologies. This is an area where we are once again collaborating directly with cloud providers just as we did very successfully with RLS, help them address their data center traffic flows.

作為一個通用的行業術語，互連實際上是在資料中心之間和內部提供關鍵連接的基礎設施技術，包括可插拔技術和組件技術。在這個領域，我們再次與雲端供應商直接合作，就像我們在 RLS 方面的成功一樣，幫助他們解決資料中心流量問題。

A large near-term opportunity for our interconnects portfolio exists around the data center or in the metro data center campus for coherent technology. By this, we mean opportunities beyond our traditional DCI capabilities that extend into campus and short-reach applications typically in the 2 to 20 kilometer range. At pluggables, including our recently announced 1.6 terabit coherent light, are a strong technology fit for these applications.

我們的互連產品組合近期在資料中心或城域資料中心園區內存在大量採用相干技術的機會。我們指的是超越傳統 DCI 能力的機會，可擴展到園區和通常在 2 至 20 公里範圍內的短距離應用。可插拔技術（包括我們最近推出的 1.6 太比特相干光）是適合這些應用的強大技術。

In the coming years, we will also expect to see coherent optics begin playing a role inside the data center where we can address this need with our interconnect portfolio in the form of plugs and components as legacy IMDD technology begins to reach certain limitations.

在未來幾年中，我們也期望看到相干光學開始在資料中心內發揮作用，隨著傳統 IMDD 技術開始達到某些限制，我們可以透過插頭和組件形式的互連產品組合來滿足這一需求。

We are obviously recognized as having the world's leading coherent technology, and we are, therefore, incredibly well positioned to drive its adoption and capture these future opportunities as they materialize. We also anticipate growing opportunities in metro routing and broadband access, again, leveraging our optical expertise and foundation.

顯然，我們被認為擁有世界領先的相干技術，因此，我們處於非常有利的地位，可以推動其採用並抓住這些未來機會。我們也預計，利用我們的光學專業知識和基礎，城域路由和寬頻存取領域的機會將會不斷增加。

In the Metro IP and optical convergence, this will become essential for some service providers to achieve greater scale and cost efficiencies. And our coherent routing solution is ideally suited to address these needs.

在城域 IP 和光融合中，這對於一些服務供應商實現更大的規模和成本效率至關重要。我們的一致路由解決方案非常適合滿足這些需求。

In broadband access, as public funding and deployments begin to materialize in the next few years, PON technologies like our industry first pluggable OLT will be key to offering customers more deployment flexibility and scale.

在寬頻接取領域，隨著公共資金和部署在未來幾年開始具體化，PON 技術（例如我們業界首款可插拔 OLT）將成為為客戶提供更大部署靈活性和規模的關鍵。

On the last dimension of our strategy is really around operational transformation as service providers continue to evolve in the cloud and AI era. They are accelerating their digital transformation strategies in order to automate and optimize their network and service life cycle operations. We see evidence of this opportunity for us with the recent performance of our Blue Planet intelligent automation portfolio.

隨著服務供應商在雲端和人工智慧時代不斷發展，我們策略的最後一個維度實際上是圍繞營運轉型。他們正在加速實施數位轉型策略，以實現網路和服務生命週期營運的自動化和優化。我們透過 Blue Planet 智慧自動化產品組合的近期表現看到了這個機會的證據。

Blue Planet had its strongest ever financial performance in FY24 in several key wins for which initial deployments helped drive a strong increase in revenue in the second half. We are confident this momentum will continue.

Blue Planet 在 2024 財年取得了有史以來最強勁的財務業績，取得了幾項關鍵勝利，這些勝利的初步部署幫助推動了下半年收入的強勁增長。我們有信心這種勢頭將持續下去。

Before handing over to Jim, I'd summarize by saying that we are incredibly confident in our future, both in terms of our technology leadership position and the industry dynamics that are playing to our strengths. Specifically, we have been investing to address long-term opportunities particularly those associated with the growth of cloud and AI.

在交給吉姆之前，我總結說，我們對我們的未來充滿信心，無論是在我們的技術領先地位還是在發揮我們優勢的行業動態方面。具體來說，我們一直在投資尋找長期機會，特別是與雲端和人工智慧成長相關的機會。

And these investments are proving to be fully aligned with market dynamics and our customers' priorities, both now and into the future. As a result, we expect to deliver accelerated revenue growth and improved operating leverage over the next few years.

事實證明，無論是現在還是未來，這些投資都完全符合市場動態和客戶的優先事項。因此，我們預計未來幾年將加速收入成長並提高營運槓桿。

With that, I'll hand it over to Jim for a more detailed readout of our financial performance in Q4 and FY24 as well as our outlook for next year and an update on our three-year targets. Jim?

接下來，我將把它交給吉姆，讓他更詳細地了解我們第四季度和 2024 財年的財務業績、明年的展望以及三年目標的最新情況。吉姆？

Thanks, Gary. Good morning, everyone. Before I get into the financials, I want to emphasize what Gary just said. First, we are seeing very positive market dynamics, including powerful trends in cloud and AI. Second, our commitment to investment and innovation has given us industry technology leadership in key product areas. Finally, our TAM is expanding as we attack new market opportunities. All of this gives us a very high level of confidence in our future.

謝謝，加里。大家早安。在討論財務問題之前，我想先強調一下加里剛才所說的話。首先，我們看到非常積極的市場動態，包括雲端和人工智慧的強大趨勢。其次，我們對投資和創新的承諾使我們在關鍵產品領域處於行業技術領先地位。最後，隨著我們抓住新的市場機會，我們的 TAM 正在不斷擴大。所有這些都讓我們對未來充滿信心。

And we believe that our performance in the fiscal fourth quarter is an indication of that momentum. Specifically, we reported Q4 revenue of $1.12 billion and our book-to-bill was above 1. In fact, book-to-bill was above 1 for the entire second half of fiscal 2024 and our backlog grew by approximately $150 million for this period.

我們相信，我們第四財季的業績顯示了這種勢頭。具體來說，我們報告的第四季營收為11.2 億美元，我們的訂單出貨比高於1。此期間成長了約1.5 億美元。

This resulted in an ending backlog of $2.1 billion at the end of the year. And we are off to a very strong start in orders for Q1. Adjusted gross margin in Q4 was 41.6%. This reflects a $39 million charge for excess and obsolescence or E&O as we call it, to our inventory. This is higher than typical for quarterly E&O and this incremental amount accounted for an approximately 200 basis points reduction in our Q4 adjusted gross margin.

這導致年底積壓金額達 21 億美元。我們第一季的訂單開局非常強勁。第四季調整後毛利率為 41.6%。這反映出我們的庫存因過剩和過時或我們所說的 E&O 而收取了 3,900 萬美元的費用。這高於季度 E&O 的典型水平，這一增量導致我們在第四季度調整後毛利率下降了約 200 個基點。

This charge is the result of a combination of factors. First, forecast product mix changes now reflect a greater proportion of cloud-related business. Secondly, our supply chain transformation initiative, which we've talked about over the past few quarters, including new systems and processes has given us better visibility into our inventory positions across the supply chain. And finally, we've had during this period of supply chain disturbance, we've enjoyed extended lead times and that has had an effect on our ability to match demand with supply.

這項指控是多種因素共同作用的結果。首先，預測的產品組合變化現在反映了雲端相關業務的更大比例。其次，我們在過去幾季討論過的供應鏈轉型計劃，包括新的系統和流程，使我們能夠更好地了解整個供應鏈的庫存狀況。最後，在這段供應鏈混亂的時期，我們享受了較長的交貨時間，這對我們滿足需求與供應的能力產生了影響。

Q4 adjusted operating expense was $355 million. With respect to profitability measures in Q4, we delivered adjusted operating margin of 10%, adjusted net income of $79 million, and adjusted EPS of $0.54. In addition, we generated $349 million in cash from operations in the quarter. Free cash flow was $266 million, and quarterly adjusted EBITDA was $137 million.

第四季調整後營運費用為 3.55 億美元。就第四季的獲利能力指標而言，我們的調整後營業利潤率為 10%，調整後淨利潤為 7,900 萬美元，調整後每股收益為 0.54 美元。此外，我們本季的營運產生了 3.49 億美元的現金。自由現金流為 2.66 億美元，季度調整後 EBITDA 為 1.37 億美元。

During Q4, we repurchased approximately 2.1 million shares for $132 million. This completed $1 billion share repurchase program, which was authorized by our Board in 2021. As you saw in October, our Board has authorized another $1 billion share repurchase program, which we plan to execute over the next three fiscal years.

第四季度，我們以 1.32 億美元回購了約 210 萬股股票。這次完成了10 億美元的股票回購計劃，該計劃於2021 年獲得了董事會的授權。 ，我們計劃在未來三個財年執行該計劃。

With respect to the full fiscal year performance, annual revenue was $4.0 billion. Adjusted gross margin was 43.6%, and adjusted OpEx totaled $1.36 billion.

就整個財年業績而言，年收入為 40 億美元。調整後毛利率為 43.6%，調整後營運支出總計 13.6 億美元。

On profitability for the fiscal year, adjusted operating margin was 9.7%, adjusted net income was $266 million, and adjusted EPS was $1.82. In addition, free cash flow in fiscal year '24 was $378 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $481 million for the year.

在本財年的獲利能力方面，調整後營業利益率為 9.7%，調整後淨利為 2.66 億美元，調整後每股收益為 1.82 美元。此外，24 財年的自由現金流為 3.78 億美元，當年調整後的 EBITDA 為 4.81 億美元。

Strength of our balance sheet remains a significant differentiator as we ended the year with approximately $1.33 billion in cash and investments. Inventory was $820 million at the end of the year, down nearly $120 million for the quarter and approximately in line with what we expected at the start of the year.

我們的資產負債表實力仍然是一個顯著的差異化因素，年底我們擁有約 13.3 億美元的現金和投資。截至年底，庫存為 8.2 億美元，本季減少近 1.2 億美元，與我們年初的預期基本一致。

Now turning to guidance. With respect to the long term, we have previously described our long-term average annual revenue growth target of 6% to 8% as being our best view of the future. For all the reasons we've discussed on this call, we're very confident in our business going forward and therefore, are providing a new set of long-term targets for the three-year period encompassing fiscal 2025 through fiscal 2027.

現在轉向指導。就長期而言，我們先前曾將6%至8%的長期平均年收入成長目標描述為我們對未來的最佳願景。基於我們在本次電話會議上討論的所有原因，我們對我們業務的未來發展非常有信心，因此，我們為 2025 財年至 2027 財年的三年期提供了一套新的長期目標。

We are seeing plans for strong CapEx investments by our cloud provider customers as they continue to invest in networks to support AI training and increasingly infancy. And we expect service provider order pattern to continue to improve. Their inventory is basically at normal levels, and we believe their orders and actual consumption are coming into balance.

我們看到我們的雲端供應商客戶計劃進行強勁的資本支出投資，因為他們繼續投資網路以支援人工智慧培訓和日益發展的嬰兒期。我們預計服務提供者的訂單模式將持續改善。他們的庫存基本上處於正常水平，我們相信他們的訂單和實際消費正在趨於平衡。

Accordingly, we now expect average annual revenue growth of approximately 8% to 11% over the next three years. We will also drive operating leverage due to the combination of higher gross margin and moderation of the rate of our OpEx growth. We are targeting adjusted operating margin of 15% to 16% for fiscal year 2027. And we expect to generate meaningful annual free cash flow over the next three years of approximately 55% to 60% of adjusted operating income.

因此，我們現在預計未來三年平均年收入將成長約為 8% 至 11%。由於較高的毛利率和營運支出成長率的放緩，我們也將提高營運槓桿。我們的目標是 2027 財年調整後營業利潤率為 15% 至 16%。

Moving to fiscal year 2025. We expect revenue growth in fiscal year '25 to also be in the range of 8% to 11%. We expect gross margin for the full year to be in a range of 42% to 44%, with quarterly gross margins starting in the low 40s and approaching the mid-40% range as we exit the year. This reflects our expectation for product mix to be more heavily weighted toward line systems earlier in the year and more balanced as we exit the year.

進入 2025 財年。我們預計全年毛利率將在 42% 至 44% 之間，季度毛利率從 40% 左右開始，到年底時接近 40% 左右。這反映了我們對產品組合的預期，即今年稍早產品組合將更加重視生產線系統，並在今年結束時更加平衡。

We expect adjusted operating expense in fiscal '25 to average $350 million to $360 million per quarter. We expect quarterly adjusted OpEx to start slightly lower in the first half and increase throughout the year to reach that average for the year.

我們預計 25 財年調整後的營運支出平均每季為 3.5 億至 3.6 億美元。我們預計季度調整後的營運支出將在上半年略有下降，並在全年有所增長，以達到全年平均水平。

Finally, in the year, we plan to repurchase approximately $330 million in shares under our recently authorized plan. Finally, with respect to Q1, we expect to deliver revenue in a range of $1.01 billion to $1.09 million. Adjusted gross margin in the low 40s range and adjusted operating expense of approximately $350 million.

最後，今年我們計劃根據最近授權的計劃回購約 3.3 億美元的股票。最後，我們預計第一季的營收將在 10.1 億美元至 109 萬美元之間。調整後的毛利率在 40 多美元左右，調整後的營運費用約為 3.5 億美元。

In conclusion, as we look ahead, we believe the increasing influence of cloud and AI will continue driving bandwidth growth across the network, and we are ideally positioned to support that demand. We continue to invest in leveraging our optical leadership to grow our core business while expanding our market opportunity. The combination of positive market trends and technology leadership gives us strong confidence in our ability to deliver accelerated revenue growth and improved operating leverage in the coming years.

總之，展望未來，我們相信雲端和人工智慧日益增長的影響力將繼續推動整個網路的頻寬成長，而我們處於支持這一需求的理想位置。我們繼續投資利用我們的光學領先地位來發展我們的核心業務，同時擴大我們的市場機會。積極的市場趨勢和技術領先地位的結合使我們對未來幾年加速收入成長和提高營運槓桿的能力充滿信心。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Q&A with questions from our analysts. Operator?

接下來，我將把電話轉入問答環節，回答分析師提出的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Amit Daryanani, Evercore.

（操作員說明）Amit Daryanani，Evercore。

I guess maybe just to start with the fiscal '25 guide for 8% to 11% growth, extremely impressive. We're setting what folks looking for. Maybe you folks would just help us understand how do you see the cloud market versus North America telco versus international kind of stacking up. Could you just dig into a little bit on what's embedded in this 8% to 11% assumption across the segments? That would be helpful.

我想也許只是從 25 財年的 8% 至 11% 成長指南開始，這非常令人印象深刻。我們正在設定人們正在尋找的內容。或許你們可以幫助我們了解你們如何看待雲端市場、北美電信公司和國際電信公司的情況。您能否深入探討跨細分市場的 8% 至 11% 假設所包含的內容？那會有幫助的。

Hi, Amit. Let me start with that. I would say that in my first sort of comment to it, what we're seeing as we said a little bit in the prepared comments, we're seeing the service provider, first of all, market come into balance in terms of supply and demand and that's manifesting as orders. We saw that in Q3. We saw it in Q4, and we're seeing it in Q1 now.

嗨，阿米特。讓我從那開始。我想說的是，在我對此的第一種評論中，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，我們看到服務提供商，首先，市場在供應和供應方面達到平衡。這表現為訂單。我們在第三季度看到了這一點。我們在第四季度看到了這一點，現在我們在第一季也看到了這一點。

So I think the stability of that market will steadily improve, and we've got good visibility to that. Coming on top of that, which is driving the growth, outsized growth for both this year and beyond, it's really the cloud -- traffic cloud and AI layering on top of that service provider base. So I would say the service provider strength absolutely in North America. We're seeing steady improvement in Europe and international markets, places like India and then it's the cloud and AI growth on top of that.

因此，我認為該市場的穩定性將穩步提高，我們對此有很好的了解。最重要的是，推動今年及以後成長的巨大成長，實際上是雲端——流量雲和人工智慧分層在服務提供者基礎之上。所以我想說北美的服務提供者絕對有實力。我們看到歐洲和國際市場（例如印度）的穩定改善，此外還有雲端和人工智慧的成長。

We're beginning to see dedicated capacity for machine to machine, and we're beginning to see the buildouts beyond that as well to deal with things like inference and longer distance training. So that's really what's driving the perspective over the next one to three years.

我們開始看到機器對機器的專用能力，我們開始看到除此之外的擴展，以及處理推理和長距離訓練等事情。因此，這確實是推動未來一到三年前景的因素。

Got it. That's really helpful. And then if I just kind of focus on this gross margin, the obsolescence risk impact that you folks had in the quarter. Just say that after that one, is there any risk, there's a little bit more of that to happen in Q1 as well? Or are you doing that issue as well behind you at this point?

知道了。這真的很有幫助。然後，如果我只關注毛利率，以及你們在本季所受到的過時風險影響。只是說，在那之後，是否存在任何風險，第一季還會發生更多風險？或者你現在也在做這個問題嗎？

And then as I think about the gross margin improvement in fiscal '25, starting that you do in Q1 to beyond, how much of that improvement is mix normalizing versus revenue leverage kind of kicking in? If there's a way to parse that out, that would be helpful. Thank you.

然後，當我考慮 25 財年毛利率的改善時，從第一季開始一直到以後，這種改善有多少是混合正常化與收入槓桿的作用？如果有一種方法可以解析它，那將會很有幫助。謝謝。

Yeah. I mean, first, I'd say that we typically have these E&O charges. It's just a function of the lead times that we have to buy our components under and the forecasts we're getting from customers and sometimes all of that changes. So we typically had $10 million or $12 million a quarter. I think this quarter was certainly influenced by several things that we don't think are repeatable.

是的。我的意思是，首先，我想說我們通常會收取這些 E&O 費用。這只是我們必須購買組件的交貨時間以及我們從客戶那裡得到的預測的函數，有時所有這些都會發生變化。所以我們通常每季有 1000 萬美元或 1200 萬美元。我認為這個季度肯定受到了一些我們認為不可重複的事情的影響。

We have a new forecast. We don't do the long-term forecast every quarter. We've done a complete transformation of our supply chain, and that's -- we now have extremely good visibility into where all this is. So we don't expect this to recur. We think that our charges are going to go back down to the sort of normal level that I described.

我們有一個新的預測。我們不會每季都進行長期預測。我們已經對我們的供應鏈進行了徹底的改造，那就是——我們現在對這一切都非常清楚。所以我們預計這種情況不會再發生。我們認為我們的費用將回到我所描述的正常水平。

With respect to the second question, it's all about mix. And there are many dimensions of mix, but the most important dimension of mix is the line system as opposed to the capacity adds in our revenue for a quarter. As we've said, our reconfigurable line system is really becoming an industry standard across both cloud providers and service providers.

關於第二個問題，這都是關於混合的。混合有很多方面，但混合最重要的方面是生產線系統，而不是我們一個季度收入中的產能增加。正如我們所說，我們的可重構線路系統確實正在成為雲端供應商和服務供應商的行業標準。

And so we are selling a lot of it now. That speaks to the future very positively because you have to populate these line systems over time. And when they do get populated, that will be at higher gross margin. So the trend in our gross margins should be up during this year and even next year and the following years.

所以我們現在賣很多。這對未來來說是非常積極的，因為隨著時間的推移，你必須填充這些線路系統。當它們確實普及時，毛利率將會更高。所以我們的毛利率今年甚至明年甚至以後的幾年應該是上升的。

Perfect. Thank you and congrats on a nice set of numbers here.

完美的。謝謝您，並祝賀您獲得了一組不錯的數字。

Simon Leopold, Raymond James.

西蒙·利奧波德，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

At first, I wanted to see if you could maybe unpack a little bit of the trending between your direct cloud sales and then the managed optical fiber network trend, MOFN. What I'm wondering here is what drives an operator to choose one option or the other? And how do you see, if at all, a divergence between those two buying patterns?

首先，我想看看您是否可以分析一下直接雲端銷售和託管光纖網路趨勢 MOFN 之間的趨勢。我想知道是什麼促使操作員選擇一個選項或另一個選項？您如何看待這兩種購買模式之間的差異（如果有的話）？

First of all, let me start by saying that the cloud providers much prefer to go direct to us and build out their own networks but there are places where they can't, including some countries where they're restricted by regulation to do so.

首先，我首先要說的是，雲端供應商更願意直接與我們聯繫並建立自己的網絡，但在某些地方他們不能這樣做，包括一些受到法規限制的國家。

But we've seen in the past, I guess, a year or so, six months that this trend of MOFN and other forms of asking service providers to build their capacity has increased a bit. And it's because they're simply doing the service -- the cloud providers are simply doing so much that they can't do it all and help. So they're going to service providers to do moments even in the US, for example.

但我想，我們在過去一年或六個月左右的時間裡看到，財政部和其他形式要求服務提供者建立能力的趨勢增加。這是因為他們只是提供服務——雲端提供者只是做了太多事情，以至於他們無法包辦所有事情並提供幫助。因此，例如，他們甚至會在美國向服務提供者提供服務。

Yes, that's absolutely right. And we see it, Simon, in -- we see it obviously in our results, but we also see it in a number of bid activities out there around the MOFN network at just the fact of it is they're trying to go so fast. The cloud providers that they have to push on every tool in their toolbox, build direct where they can open where they can augment. And in some countries, obviously, that's their only choice is the most in network base.

是的，這是絕對正確的。西蒙，我們在結果中明顯看到了這一點，但我們也在 MOFN 網路周圍的許多投標活動中看到了這一點，事實是他們正試圖如此快速地進行。他們必須在其工具箱中推送每個工具的雲端供應商，在可以開放的地方直接建立可以增強的地方。顯然，在某些國家/地區，他們唯一的選擇就是擁有最多的網路基礎。

And then just as a follow-up, I appreciate you've told us a little bit about the 10% customers for the fiscal year in the quarter. What's your thinking on customer concentration in the forecast for fiscal '25? What are you assuming? Do you expect a similar top two? Or do you expect basically more diversification in the next fiscal year? Any color you can offer on how that's trending?

作為後續行動，我感謝您向我們介紹了本季財年 10% 客戶的一些情況。您對 25 財年預測中的顧客集中度有何看法？你假設什麼？您期待類似的前兩名嗎？或者您預計下一財年基本上會更加多元化？您可以提供任何顏色來說明流行趨勢嗎？

Yeah. We have -- I guess, we have four customers, two service providers, and two cloud providers that in any given quarter can be a 10% customer, and they move around a little bit. But I personally don't think the combination of the makeup of our 10% customers is going to change a lot. It's going to be one or two a quarter, maybe three. We've had three in the past, but I don't think it's going to change. But the actual customer that it is -- will change.

是的。我想，我們有四個客戶、兩個服務供應商和兩個雲端供應商，它們在任何特定季度都可能是 10% 的客戶，而且他們會稍微移動。但我個人認為我們這10%的顧客的妝容組合不會有太大改變。每個季度會發生一到兩次，也許三個。我們過去已經有過三個，但我認為這不會改變。但實際的客戶將會改變。

George Notter, Jefferies.

喬治諾特，傑弗里斯。

I was thinking about your guidance for gross margins, 42% to 44%, I think, for fiscal '25. But when I adjust for E&O, looking at fiscal '24, I get you guys at about 44.5% gross margin. I hear what you're saying in terms of the mix shift of new systems versus line cards, but I think what you're telling us is this is going to be the heaviest mix towards new systems that you guys have ever been at in terms of a company.

我正在考慮你們對 25 財年毛利率的指導，我認為是 42% 到 44%。但當我對 E&O 進行調整時，看看 24 財年，我得到的毛利率約為 44.5%。我聽到你所說的新系統與線卡的混合轉變，但我認為你告訴我們的是，這將是你們所經歷過的新系統最嚴重的混合一家公司的。

Is that the right interpretation here? Or is there just conservatism in the guide? Or what can we learn on that front?

這是正確的解釋嗎？或者指南中只是保守主義？或者說我們在這方面可以學到什麼？

It is absolutely going to be the heaviest concentration of line systems next year, particularly in the first two quarters that we have seen. It is becoming an industry standard, George, the cloud providers and service providers want this line system. It offers the best combination of capability, the ability and being able to handle the massive volumes that are needed as the network demand continued.

這絕對將是明年線路系統最集中的情況，特別是在我們所看到的前兩個季度。它正在成為一個行業標準，喬治，雲端供應商和服務提供者都想要這個線路系統。它提供了功能、能力和能力的最佳組合，可以處理網路需求持續增長所需的大量數據。

Got it. Okay. And the other one I had was just on headcount if I've got my math correct, I think you guys book head count down a pretty good chunk sequentially. First time we've seen head count come down by this magnitude in a very long time. Am I looking at that correctly? And if so, what's driving that?

知道了。好的。我的另一件事只是關於人數，如果我的數學正確的話，我認為你們按順序記錄了相當多的人數。很長一段時間以來，我們第一次看到員工人數出現如此大幅度的下降。我這樣看正確嗎？如果是這樣，是什麼推動了這一點？

Yeah. Remember about midyear, when we took our revenue call down, we also took our OpEx down. So we did that by a combination of terminations and dropping our plans for adding headcount. And so our head count did take a drop as we move through the year. We don't expect next year's head count is going to grow significantly.

是的。還記得年中的時候，當我們降低收入時，也降低了營運支出。因此，我們透過解僱和放棄增加員工人數的計劃相結合來做到這一點。因此，隨著這一年的推移，我們的員工人數確實有所下降。我們預計明年的員工人數不會大幅增加。

However, OpEx will be up mainly because we're not hanging out 100% under our incentive compensation plans this year, and we expect to pay out 100% next year. And also there's a merit increase in there. So those are the two big reasons why our OpEx is up from '24 to '25.

然而，營運支出將會上升，主要是因為我們今年的激勵薪酬計畫並未達到 100%，我們預計明年將達到 100%。而且那裡還有功績增加。這就是我們的營運支出從 24 年上升到 25 年的兩大原因。

Super. Thanks so much and congrats on the results.

極好的。非常感謝並祝賀結果。

Meta Marshall, Morgan Stanley.

梅塔‧馬歇爾，摩根士丹利。

Just as you were thinking about the three-year, I guess, I just wanted to get a sense of how are you judging customers' ability to kind of install all of this equipment kind of as quickly as kind of their purchasing it, I mean particularly on the part of the telcos where we've seen kind of some limits before kind of in their ability to install. Maybe that's the first question.

就像您在考慮三年期一樣，我想，我只是想了解一下您如何判斷客戶安裝所有這些設備的能力與他們購買設備的速度一樣快，我的意思是特別是在電信公司方面，我們之前已經看到他們的安裝能力受到了一些限制。也許這是第一個問題。

And then the second question is -- as we look at kind of the OpEx step up, I know you guys have made some meaningful investments kind of in routing over the last couple of years. Just how are you judging some of those investments maybe versus some of the more nearer-term kind of opportunities you're seeing with the cloud?

第二個問題是──當我們考慮營運支出的提升時，我知道你們在過去幾年裡在路由方面進行了一些有意義的投資。您如何判斷其中一些投資與您在雲端方面看到的一些近期機會？

Hey, Meta. That's a very good question around -- because it does talk to the ability of both service providers and cloud players to absorb, i.e., deploy all of this equipment. And I think we've got much closer over the last two to three years, given all of the supply chain imbalances and the rest of it to exactly how are they consuming it and deploying.

嘿，梅塔。這是一個非常好的問題，因為它確實涉及服務提供者和雲端提供者吸收（即部署所有這些設備）的能力。我認為，考慮到所有供應鏈不平衡以及其他問題，我們在過去兩到三年中更接近了解他們如何消費和部署它。

We've also ramped our services capability in that time too. And from a service provider point of view, we are doing more of those deployments than ever. We are very close to the major Tier 1 service providers, and we're a critical part of their deployment services. So, A, we have good visibility.

那時我們也提升了我們的服務能力。從服務提供者的角度來看，我們所做的部署比以往任何時候都多。我們與主要的一級服務提供者非常接近，並且我們是他們部署服務的關鍵部分。所以，A，我們有很好的能見度。

And number two, we're helping them ramp. We're also doing that with the cloud providers. and that may not be something that's well known and understood. Obviously, you're talking about installations around the globe, very complicated submarine cables and different countries around the world with service provider combinations as well, so quite complicated.

第二，我們正在幫助他們發展。我們也正在與雲端提供者合作。這可能不是眾所周知和理解的事情。顯然，您談論的是全球各地的安裝、非常複雜的海底電纜以及世界各地不同國家的服務提供者組合，因此相當複雜。

We are project managing some of those for them. And we're actually deploying and helping with the planning on many of the cloud providers as well. So, A, again, we have good visibility; and B, we're helping accelerate those network deployments.

我們正在為他們管理其中的一些項目。我們實際上也在許多雲端提供者上進行部署和幫助規劃。所以，A，我們再次擁有良好的能見度； B，我們正在協助加速這些網路部署。

And particularly, as Jim talked about, we're seeing an uptick in the whole line -- automated line deployments that we've never seen before to this scale. And the first half of the year, particularly, which will weigh on margins in the first half but it's a good news story and that we'll lay in track for the future with it. So I think we have good visibility matter, and we're confident in the capability of them to deploy.

特別是，正如吉姆所說，我們看到整個生產線的成長——自動化生產線部署的規模是我們以前從未見過的。尤其是今年上半年，這將對上半年的利潤率造成壓力，但這是一個好消息，我們將以此為未來做好準備。因此，我認為我們擁有良好的可見性，並且我們對它們的部署能力充滿信心。

Second part of the question, in terms of operating expenses, as you know, during the course of the last few years of both COVID supply chain whiplash, we've continued to invest in this kind of architecture and the technology that we're rolling out now.

問題的第二部分，就營運費用而言，如您所知，在過去幾年的新冠供應鏈衝擊期間，我們繼續投資於這種架構和我們正在推出的技術現在出來了。

So I think as I think about the next few years outside of, as Jim said, expenses in terms of cost of living expenses, it's really about operating leverage now. And we've made the investments. We've got the technology coming to market at the right time. Now it's about over the next one to three years, driving operating leverage, which gets us back to that 15% to 16% operating margin.

因此，我認為，正如吉姆所說，除了生活費的支出之外，我認為未來幾年的問題實際上與營運槓桿有關。我們已經進行了投資。我們已將這項技術適時推向市場。現在，大約在未來一到三年內，將推動營運槓桿，使我們回到 15% 至 16% 的營運利潤率。

And the great news is that as a result of these investments, we have the best optical technology, the best line system and the best operating system. So we've successfully invested and our growth rate for the next three years reflects that.

好消息是，由於這些投資，我們擁有最好的光學技術、最好的線路系統和最好的作業系統。因此，我們已經成功地進行了投資，未來三年的成長率也反映了這一點。

David Vogt, UBS.

大衛‧沃格特，瑞銀集團。

Two, if I may. Maybe, Gary, I missed it earlier, but I wanted to ask about the longer-term opportunities specifically short reach coherent, which you talked about, whether it's in campus or inside the data center. Can you kind of help us better understand sort of the timing and the magnitude of this opportunity? And if I would assume some of that revenue opportunity is embedded in the rolling three-year guide, and I'll give you my second comment as well our question.

如果可以的話，兩個。加里，也許我之前錯過了，但我想問您談到的長期機會，特別是短距離連貫性，無論是在校園還是在資料中心內。您能否幫助我們更了解這個機會的時機和重要性？如果我假設一些收入機會嵌入在滾動的三年指南中，我將向您提供我的第二條評論以及我們的問題。

I heard Jim mention operating leverage in the out years. And to go back to George's question, should we expect gross margin expansion higher in fiscal '26 and fiscal '27 as well to support the 15% to 60% operating margin in the out year that you laid out earlier?

我聽到吉姆提到了過去幾年的營運槓桿。回到喬治的問題，我們是否應該預期 26 財年和 27 財年的毛利率擴張會更高，以支持您之前提出的當年 15% 至 60% 的營業利潤率？

Yeah, let me take the second part first. And the answer is yes. We do expect that our margins will improve to something approaching historical numbers that will get us to 15% to 16%, that, along with operating leverage will get us a 15% to 16% operating margin that we predicted. Scott?

是的，讓我先講第二部分。答案是肯定的。我們確實預計我們的利潤率將提高到接近歷史數字，即達到 15% 至 16%，再加上營運槓桿，將使我們的營運利潤率達到我們預測的 15% 至 16%。史考特？

Yeah. And then David, if you think about our opportunities outside of our system business, it starts with our coherent plugs those are seeing significant ramp in the back part of this year, and we expect it to grow in '25, and that really speaks to sort of the Metro DCI opportunities that we really didn't have exposure to historically. So that's new incremental business for us stepping closer in and around the data center from there.

是的。然後大衛，如果你考慮我們系統業務之外的機會，首先是我們的連貫插頭，這些插頭在今年下半年會出現顯著的增長，我們預計它會在 25 年增長，這確實說明了這一點這是我們歷史上從未接觸過的Metro DCI 機會。因此，這對我們來說是新的增量業務，從那裡開始更接近資料中心。

We've been saying for some time now, we do believe that coherent technologies have a play there in the future as data rates go up and the reach requirements expand a little bit. We think the next opportunity is in the campus. So think about that as the 2 to 20 kilometers type range. And our WaveLogic 6 technology WaveLogic 6 Nano has that coherent light or LR capability as the industry talks about that DSP is sampling today.

一段時間以來，我們確實相信，隨著數據速率的提高和覆蓋範圍要求的擴大，相干技術將在未來發揮作用。我們認為下一個機會是在校園裡。因此，請將其視為 2 至 20 公里類型的範圍。我們的 WaveLogic 6 技術 WaveLogic 6 Nano 具有業界所談論的相干光或 LR 功能，DSP 現已提供樣品。

We would expect to be in customers' network slate in '25 with that and start to see the revenue flow into our P&L in '26. So that piece of it is included in our long-term targets. Beyond that, we do see that trend continuing to be inside the data center as the data rates increase. That is a little bit from a timeline perspective, a little bit beyond our three-year guide.

我們預計將在 25 年進入客戶的網路名單，並在 26 年開始看到收入流入我們的損益表。因此，這一部分已包含在我們的長期目標中。除此之外，我們確實看到隨著資料速率的增加，這種趨勢在資料中心內部持續存在。從時間軸的角度來看，這有點超出了我們的三年指南。

Atif Malik, Citi.

阿蒂夫·馬利克，花旗銀行。

Hi. It's Adrienne Colby for Atif. Thank you for the question. I was hoping to go back to margins. I was wondering if you could comment about strategic opportunities for supply chain or portfolio optimization, if there's an opportunity for incremental benefits over the summer, one of Ciena's partners commented on standing relationship. So interested if there's a potential benefit to margins there.

你好。我是 Atif 的艾德麗安·科爾比。謝謝你的提問。我希望回到邊緣。我想知道您是否可以評論供應鏈或投資組合優化的策略機會，是否有機會在夏季增加收益，Ciena 的一位合作夥伴評論了長期關係。如果那裡的利潤率有潛在的好處，我很感興趣。

Yeah. I mean, I think we're constantly looking at our supply chain to see how we optimize it. I think the reality of the last few years has been one where we are in a constrained environment from a supply chain perspective. That has actually gotten in the way of us getting at our typical cost reduction activities, fact that we have been carrying a bit of elevated inventory as well has been a headwind in that dimension.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們不斷關注我們的供應鏈，看看如何優化它。我認為，從供應鏈的角度來看，過去幾年的現實是我們處於受限的環境。這實際上阻礙了我們進行典型的成本削減活動，事實上，我們的庫存也有所增加，這在這方面是一個阻力。

We do expect as we go through '25 and further into our three-year plan that we'll get back on to our typical year-over-year cost reduction activities, and that will absolutely help in the margin expansion that Jim talked about.

我們確實預計，當我們進入 25 年並進一步實施我們的三年計劃時，我們將重新開始我們典型的逐年成本削減活動，這絕對有助於吉姆談到的利潤率擴張。

And as a quick follow-up, can you comment on exposure to tariffs with the incoming administration? I know that you use a lot of third-party contract manufacturers. But even if you can just talk about it qualitatively, that would be helpful.

作為快速跟進，您能否對即將上任的政府面臨的關稅問題發表評論？我知道你們使用很多第三方合約製造商。但即使你只能定性地談論它，那也會有幫助。

Yes. What I'd say is that this is entirely speculative because we don't have a new administration yet, and we don't know exactly what they're going to do. We have not factored into our numbers, any effect from tariffs. We do have exposure to tariffs from Mexico on Mexico, I should say. And if that were to happen, we'll have to work hard to mitigate the effects.

是的。我想說的是，這完全是推測，因為我們還沒有新政府，我們也不知道他們到底要做什麼。我們沒有將關稅的任何影響納入我們的數據。我應該說，我們確實面臨墨西哥對墨西哥徵收關稅的風險。如果這種情況發生，我們就必須努力減輕影響。

Ruben Roy, Stifel.

魯本·羅伊，斯蒂菲爾。

I just had one question, I guess, a quick follow-up for either Gary or Scott. Just following along to some of the previous questions around the data center or cloud service provider contribution to revenue. Gary had mentioned in and around coherent [twin] light optics, the plugs and components. And I think the component part of it is more of a recent potential road map extension.

我想我只有一個問題，請快速跟進加里或斯科特。繼續回答先前有關資料中心或雲端服務提供者對收入貢獻的一些問題。加里提到了相干[雙]光光學元件、插頭和組件。我認為它的組成部分更多的是最近潛在的路線圖擴展。

So just wondering if you could comment a little bit on how you're thinking about the components. I think, Gary, you mentioned as you think about getting into the data center, that could be an opportunity. Wondering if you're thinking about DSPs in kind of more standard DCI inside coherent DSPs as an opportunity over the near to medium term.

所以只是想知道您是否可以評論一下您對組件的看法。我認為，加里，您在考慮進入資料中心時提到過，這可能是一個機會。想知道您是否正在考慮將相干 DSP 內更標準的 DCI 中的 DSP 作為中短期內的機會。

Yes. I think two parts to it. One is sort of places where we play today. Obviously, some of the industry likes to have an insurance policy, I'll call it, where they can procure finished goods systems from us. Some would prefer to disaggregate that and buy it in another way. We've been very clear with that set of customers that we are willing to transact as they see fit. The reality of it is today, all of them have actually prefer to buy finished goods from us.

是的。我認為有兩個部分。一是我們今天玩耍的地方。顯然，有些行業喜歡有一份保險單，我稱之為保險單，他們可以從我們這裡購買成品系統。有些人更願意將其分解並以其他方式購買。我們已經向這組客戶明確表示，我們願意以他們認為合適的方式進行交易。今天的現實是，他們實際上都更願意從我們這裡購買成品。

Now that finished goods can come in the form of systems or as we've seen in the second half of the year, plug sold independently from our systems as well. So they are today, taking advantage of our optical technology in both of those forms, plugs or in systems.

現在成品可以以系統的形式出現，或者正如我們在今年下半年看到的那樣，插頭也可以獨立於我們的系統進行銷售。如今，他們以插頭或系統兩種形式利用我們的光學技術。

As we go further towards the data center and ultimately, as I said, getting inside the data center, it's more and more of a buying path for those consumers to want to consume as components. And we're capable and willing to do that. But as we sit here today, it's not part of our revenue.

隨著我們進一步走向資料中心，並最終，正如我所說，進入資料中心，對於那些想要作為元件進行消費的消費者來說，這越來越成為一種購買途徑。我們有能力也願意這樣做。但當我們今天坐在這裡時，這並不是我們收入的一部分。

Got it. I guess just for a quick follow-up on that. In terms of -- we've been hearing more about DCI and contribution to revenue. Can you just give us a comment on competitive environment? Are you seeing kind of competitive modules becoming, I guess, more prevalent in the bake-offs? Or is that not the case?

知道了。我想只是為了快速跟進。就 DCI 和收入貢獻而言，我們聽到了更多資訊。您能給我們評價一下競爭環境嗎？我想，您是否看到某種競爭性模組在烘焙比賽中變得更加普遍？或者事實並非如此？

I think on the -- let me separate it out from the parts of the network where we see data center interconnect in longer reaches. So outside of sort of the metro kind of campus area. I don't think the competitive dynamics have changed there at all.

我認為——讓我將其與我們看到資料中心互連距離較長的網路部分分開。所以在地鐵校園區域之外。我認為那裡的競爭動態根本沒有改變。

We continue to have outside share there, largely because of our relationships around the world and our technology leadership. And that is consumed in our line systems that is consumed in products like our Waveserver and that continues to show increased market share period-over-period.

我們繼續在那裡擁有外部份額，這主要是因為我們在世界各地的關係和我們的技術領先地位。這在我們的生產線系統中消耗，在我們的 Waveserver 等產品中消耗，且市佔率持續成長。

The place that's -- we're relatively new to in terms of gaining market share is in the Metro DCI area. So think of it less than 100 kilometers. We typically haven't been a player there or not a large player there with our WaveLogic 5 plugs that we introduced in the market a couple of seasons ago, we've become an increasing layer there where we shipped, as I said in the script, over 43,000 plugs into that application and it's growing rapidly.

在獲得市場份額方面，我們相對較新的地方是 DCI 都會區。所以想想不到100公里。我們通常不是那裡的玩家，也不是那裡的大玩家，我們在幾個賽季前在市場上推出了 WaveLogic 5 插頭，正如我在腳本中所說，我們已經成為我們發貨的越來越多的層，超過43,000 個插件插入該應用程序，並且還在快速增長。

We had a very strong Q4 there. And from a '25 perspective, we expect to continue to take share in that application. And we will be introducing, of course, the first 800-gig plug into that market. And we've been fortunate enough to win the early competitive bids that are out there for that technology, and we'll be taking revenue on that generation in '25 as well.

我們第四季的表現非常強勁。從 25 年的角度來看，我們預計將繼續在該應用程式中佔據份額。當然，我們將向該市場推出首款 800 GB 插頭。我們很幸運能夠贏得該技術的早期競爭性投標，我們也將在 25 年從這一代產品中獲得收入。

Samik Chatterjee, JPMorgan.

薩米克‧查特吉，摩根大通。

Congrats on the results and the guide. I guess if I can start off with the fiscal '25 guide and just sort of ballparking here in terms of 10% revenue growth, which plus orders and revenue should be around this sort of $1.1 billion level every quarter that you did in 4Q.

祝賀結果和指南。我想我是否可以從 25 財年的指南開始，對 10% 的收入增長進行大致預測，加上訂單和收入每個季度應該約為 11 億美元的水平，就像第四季度那樣。

How -- maybe if you can sort of talk about the interplay between how you're thinking about interplay between old and backlog through the year? Because are you assuming that you continue to sort of build backlog through the year, and typically, your orders do sort of pick up towards the back half of the year. So if that means, do you have more upside for the year? And then I have a follow-up.

怎麼樣——也許你可以談談你如何看待這一年中舊訂單和積壓訂單之間的相互作用？因為你是否假設你在今年繼續積壓訂單，通常情況下，你的訂單在下半年會增加。那麼，如果這意味著，今年您還有更多上漲空間嗎？然後我有一個後續行動。

We feel really good about order intake for the year, first of all, and it started off very strong for the first six, seven weeks of this quarter. Now it's hard to predict what's going to happen to our backlog. If you go back historically, before all of the extended lead times and the supply chain disruption, our lead time. I mean, our backlog at any point in time was roughly 1.5 quarters. That's just a rough way of driving it, and there was a lot of stuff in there, including long-term service contracts, et cetera.

首先，我們對今年的訂單量感覺非常好，本季的前六、七週開始非常強勁。現在很難預測我們的積壓工作將會發生什麼。如果你回顧歷史，在所有延長的交貨時間和供應鏈中斷之前，我們的交貨時間。我的意思是，我們在任何時間點的積壓量大約是 1.5 個季度。這只是一種粗略的駕駛方式，裡面有很多東西，包括長期服務合約等等。

During the supply chain situation, it went up to four quarters worth of revenue. And it's come back down to something like a little over 1.5 times, maybe 1.6 quarters of revenue. We're just not sure what's going to happen to backlog. It's going to depend upon what our lead times are, how customers behave and all of that.

在供應鏈情勢下，它的收入上升到了四個季度的水平。現在已經回落到營收的 1.5 倍多一點，也許是 1.6 個季度。我們只是不確定積壓會發生什麼事。這將取決於我們的交貨時間、客戶的行為等等。

And so I think it's going to become less important, frankly, for you to look at our backlog and more important for you to consider what's happening with our order flow and our revenue. So what I'd say is we don't know the answer to your question, Samik, but we do expect really good orders for this year.

因此，坦白說，我認為對您來說，查看我們的積壓訂單將變得不那麼重要，而對您來說，考慮我們的訂單流和收入的情況將變得更加重要。所以我想說的是，Samik，我們不知道你問題的答案，但我們確實預計今年會有非常好的訂單。

Samik, the other thing that I would add to that, and you're seeing it manifest to some extent in our guide for Q1 is we typically have seasonality in Q1. I think it talks to the new dynamic where we're increasingly more indexed towards the cloud players than the service providers who are quite generally seasonal around Q1.

Samik，我要補充的另一件事是，您在我們的第一季指南中看到了一定程度的體現，即我們通常在第一季有季節性。我認為這與新的動態有關，即我們越來越關注雲端玩家，而不是服務供應商，後者通常在第一季左右具有季節性。

And I think we're seeing strong order flows in Q1. You've seen the revenue guide for Q1 as well. Now whether that continues into the next three years. But I do expect less seasonality in the business, generally speaking, because of our increasing exposure to cloud and AI traffic growth.

我認為我們在第一季看到了強勁的訂單流。您也看到了第一季的營收指南。現在這種情況是否會持續到未來三年。但總的來說，我確實預計業務的季節性會減少，因為我們越來越多地接觸雲端和人工智慧流量成長。

Just one other related comment on this. It's not directly related, but it's certainly part of the mix. We did have a pretty significant reduction in inventory this past year. We think inventory will go down again this year, but by a smaller number, maybe $50 million to $100 million. We are on a track to getting to inventory turns of 4 to 4.5 times. That's not going to happen by the end of this year, potentially by the end of '26, we'll be at that point.

只是對此的另一個相關評論。它沒有直接關係，但它肯定是混合的一部分。去年我們的庫存確實大幅減少。我們認為今年庫存將再次下降，但下降幅度較小，可能為 5,000 萬至 1 億美元。我們預計將庫存週轉率提高到 4 至 4.5 倍。到今年年底，這不會發生，可能到 26 年底，我們就會到那時。

And for my follow-up, if I can just ask you on slide 10, I was looking at some of the TAM addressable market assumptions that you have. And I was curious on two things. One, I mean, as much as you're seeing accidented bandwidth growth and you have a lot more revenue coming from the market expansion opportunities that you're pursuing.

對於我的後續行動，如果我可以在投影片 10 上問您的話，我正在研究您所擁有的一些 TAM 可尋址市場假設。我對兩件事很好奇。一，我的意思是，儘管您看到了意外的頻寬成長，並且您從您所追求的市場擴張機會中獲得了更多的收入。

Why isn't sort of the estimate for core business addressable market going higher, it is indicated to be 2% as it was before? Why aren't we seeing more of an uplift in the coal business addressable market? And then it seems like your addressable market expansion CAGRs came down by about a few percentage points because of a reduction of about $2 billion. So maybe if you can just parse out the impact there as well.

為什麼核心業務潛在市場的預測沒有提高，而是像之前一樣為 2%？為什麼我們沒有看到煤炭業務目標市場出現更多成長？然後，由於大約 20 億美元的減少，您的潛在市場擴張複合年增長率似乎下降了大約幾個百分點。所以也許你也可以分析出那裡的影響。

What I would say is that I think it is possible that our base business grows faster than that. It depends upon how much artificial intelligence flows extend through the service provider networks. And we don't know the answer to that.

我想說的是，我認為我們的基礎業務成長速度可能比這更快。這取決於人工智慧流通過服務提供者網路的延伸程度。我們不知道答案。

And I should say the cloud provider networks as well. But those numbers we take from industry analysts, we don't develop them ourselves and it's very much in keeping with what they've said in the past. It's a base business is a sort of low to mid-single-digit growth business, could be higher in the future, but that's what you're saying, and we are okay with that. We can do very well in that context.

我還應該說雲端提供者網路。但這些數字是我們從產業分析師那裡獲得的，我們自己並不開發它們，這與他們過去所說的非常一致。這是一項基礎業務，是一種中低個位數成長的業務，未來可能會更高，但這就是你所說的，我們對此表示同意。在這方面我們可以做得很好。

Samik, another way I would sort of getting our head around that is that it's typically in our traditional business being about 2% to 3% growth. And yet we've grown at 6% to 8%. And I think we continue to take share, and we're confident we can continue to take share into that business.

Samik，我想了解的另一種方式是，我們的傳統業務通常會實現 2% 到 3% 左右的成長。然而我們的成長率卻是 6% 到 8%。我認為我們將繼續佔據份額，並且我們有信心能夠繼續在該業務中佔據份額。

I think the point I would make is that I think the other areas, both within cloud build-out and the MOFN piece are not really encapsulated in those numbers, frankly, from an outside analyst point of view because we're seeing way more overlay activity across both service providers and cloud infrastructure build-outs as well. And I don't think that's really reflected in those external perspectives yet.

我想我想說的是，坦白說，從外部分析師的角度來看，其他領域，無論是雲端建置還是 MOFN 部分，都沒有真正封裝在這些數字中，因為我們看到了更多的重疊跨服務提供者和雲端基礎設施建設的活動。我認為這還沒有真正反映在這些外部觀點中。

One other comment I'd make is, remember, these are industry analyst numbers, they're not our numbers per se. But with the slide and be subsidies to the right. We still think they're coming. They've been allocated by the government, and they're going to come, but they seem to continue to slide, which is not unexpected given the fact that there's a lot of work from the time the government allocates the money until it gets to the customers, they have taken PON forecast down pretty meaningfully over the next two or three years.

我要說的另一件事是，請記住，這些是產業分析師的數字，它們本身並不是我們的數字。但隨著滑行而得到補貼就對了。我們仍然認為他們會來。它們是由政府分配的，而且是會來的，但它們似乎在繼續下滑，這並不意外，因為從政府分配資金到資金到位之間還有很多工作要做。有意義地下調了未來兩三年內PON 的預測。

Tal Liani, Bank of America.

塔爾·利亞尼，美國銀行。

I wanted just to ask about the margins. The orders you're talking about with cloud, is the proportion of pluggables higher than historical? I'm just -- my question is if the contribution of pluggables is going to go up over the next few years. What needs to happen to offset the margin pressure? Is it true that they carry lower margin?

我只是想問一下利潤率。您所說的雲端訂單中，可插拔的比例是否高於歷史水準？我只是 - 我的問題是可插拔的貢獻是否會在未來幾年內上升。需要採取什麼措施來抵銷利潤壓力？他們的利潤率真的較低嗎？

And what needs to happen to offset the margin pressure from pluggables. And that's my first question. My second question is, I'm trying to understand what drives -- I fully understand the cloud, cloud deployments, I know everyone knows what drives deployments of your solutions.

以及需要採取什麼措施來抵消可插拔的邊際壓力。這是我的第一個問題。我的第二個問題是，我試著了解是什麼推動了——我完全了解雲端、雲端部署，我知道每個人都知道是什麼推動了解決方案的部署。

I'm more struggling on the carrier side, on the telco side. They are under such pressure of spending and they talk about much lower spending cycle in the next few years. What drives their deployments?

我在營運商方面、電信方面更加掙扎。他們面臨著如此大的支出壓力，他們談論未來幾年的支出週期將會大大降低。是什麼推動了他們的部署？

Yes. I'll address the plugs question. I would say that our plug margins today are a bit below our average margins. But we're not at full ramp on those and we're selling WaveLogic 5 Nano plugs. When we get to WaveLogic 6 Nano plugs and as we ramp our volumes and by the way, we do believe that our pluggables volumes are going to increase pretty meaningfully next year, perhaps double. And -- but as we get up to rent and as we get into WaveLogic 6 Nano, the 800 gig ZR, then we will get better margins on those.

是的。我來解決一下插頭問題。我想說，我們今天的插頭利潤率略低於我們的平均利潤率。但我們還沒有全力推進這些，我們正在銷售 WaveLogic 5 Nano 插頭。當我們開發 WaveLogic 6 Nano 插頭時，隨著我們增加產量，順便說一句，我們確實相信我們的可插拔量明年將大幅增加，也許會增加一倍。而且，當我們開始出租並進入 WaveLogic 6 Nano（800 gig ZR）時，我們將獲得更好的利潤。

The other thing, Tal, is taking a broader perspective on those cloud providers and a demand that they're putting on us. It's coming at us in the form of our photonic line systems and wavelengths in the various different forms depending on where that bandwidth is in the network. So we see it in longer reaches in our Waveserver product portfolio, and we see it in the plugs. By far, the biggest weight, if you like, in terms of the margin dynamic there is the line systems.

Tal 的另一件事是對這些雲端提供者以及他們對我們提出的要求採取更廣泛的視角。它以光子線路系統和各種不同形式的波長的形式向我們襲來，這取決於頻寬在網路中的位置。因此，我們在 Waveserver 產品組合中看到了它的長距離，並且在插頭中看到了它。到目前為止，如果你願意的話，就保證金動態而言，最大的權重是線路系統。

And on the carrier spending, Tal, I would say this, I mean our perspective is you've seen two years of very anemic spending and really underinvesting, running the networks hot by the service providers generally around the world. We're seeing that sort of come into balance from a supply-demand point of view, but we're not expecting it to -- we're expecting it to improve certainly in North America and a little bit in Europe.

關於運營商支出，塔爾，我想說的是，我們的觀點是，你已經看到兩年來支出非常疲軟，而且投資確實不足，網絡由世界各地的服務提供商普遍運行。從供需的角度來看，我們看到這種情況達到了平衡，但我們並不期望它會達到平衡——我們預期北美和歐洲的情況肯定會有所改善。

We're not really expecting it to get back the kind of levels of spend that it was. We're not expecting that, which I think is consistent with your sort of perspectives to it. But given the additional growth and TAM expansions, we've got, that's what's driving -- that's in the assumption there. What we are seeing with certain carriers around the world is MOFN opportunities driven by cloud and that really is cloud, but the revenues go through from the service providers. So that is what's driving growth.

我們並不真正期望它能恢復到原來的支出水準。我們並沒有預料到這一點，我認為這與你的觀點是一致的。但考慮到額外的成長和 TAM 的擴張，我們發現，這就是驅動因素——這就是假設。我們在世界各地的某些營運商身上看到的是由雲端驅動的 MOFN 機會，這確實是雲，但收入來自服務提供者。這就是推動成長的因素。

Also with sort of multi-cloud type provisioning. You saw it with the Lumen announcement this year. You've got carriers around the world, taking these innovative kind of approaches. So I do think that we're not expecting service provider spend to accelerate dramatically at all, but just to recover and get back into some kind of balance which we're seeing.

還具有某種多雲類型的配置。你在今年的 Lumen 公告中就看到了這一點。世界各地的營運商都在採取這些創新的方法。因此，我確實認為，我們並不期望服務提供者的支出會大幅加速，而只是希望恢復並回到我們所看到的某種平衡。

And then on top of that, you've got the cloud growth that specific builds in MOFN and into cloud that's driving the revenue there.

最重要的是，MOFN 和雲端中特定的雲端成長推動了那裡的收入。

And remember, they're the connection between the cloud and end users, whether it's enterprises or individuals. So they have to keep their networks viable and strong and grow their networks just to handle that demand.

請記住，它們是雲端與最終用戶（無論是企業還是個人）之間的連接。因此，他們必須保持其網路的活力和強大，並發展其網路以滿足這種需求。

As omnipotent as these cloud players are, they can't connect to everybody in the world.

儘管這些雲端提供者無所不能，但它們無法連接到世界上的每個人。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回進行閉幕致詞。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate it. We look forward to catching up with everyone over the following days and weeks. Don't forget that webinar and recorded Q&A that I mentioned and happy holidays, everyone as well. Thank you.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們很感激。我們期待在接下來的幾天和幾週內與大家見面。不要忘記我提到的網路研討會和錄製的問答，祝大家節日快樂。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。