Ciena Corp (CIEN) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Ciena Fiscal Second Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please also note, today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Gregg Lampf, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, please go ahead.

大家早上好，歡迎參加 Ciena 2023 財年第二季度財務業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）另請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。現在，我想請投資者關係副總裁 Gregg Lampf 發言。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Jamie. Good morning, and welcome to Ciena's 2023 Fiscal Second Quarter Results Conference Call. On the call today is Gary Smith, President and CEO; and Jim Moylan, CFO. Scott McFeely, our Senior Vice President of Global Products and Services, is also with us for Q&A.

謝謝你，傑米。早上好，歡迎來到 Ciena 的 2023 財年第二季度業績電話會議。今天接聽電話的是總裁兼首席執行官 Gary Smith；和首席財務官 Jim Moylan。我們的全球產品和服務高級副總裁 Scott McFeely 也與我們一起進行問答。

In addition to this call and the press release, we have posted to the Investors section of our website an accompanying investor presentation that reflects this discussion as well as certain highlighted items from the quarter. Our comments today speak to our recent performance, our views on current market dynamics and drivers of our business as well as a discussion of our financial outlook.

除了本次電話會議和新聞稿外，我們還在我們網站的“投資者”部分發布了隨附的投資者介紹，其中反映了此次討論以及本季度的某些重點項目。我們今天的評論談到了我們最近的表現、我們對當前市場動態和我們業務驅動因素的看法以及對我們財務前景的討論。

Today's discussion includes certain adjusted or non-GAAP measures of Ciena's results of operations. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results is included in today's press release.

今天的討論包括 Ciena 經營業績的某些調整後或非 GAAP 措施。這些非 GAAP 措施與我們的 GAAP 結果的對賬包含在今天的新聞稿中。

Before turning the call over to Gary, I'll remind you that during this call, we'll be making certain forward-looking statements. Such statements, including our quarterly and annual guidance and our long-term financial outlook, a discussion of market opportunities and strategy and commentary about impacts of supply chain constraints on our business and results, are based on current expectations, forecasts and assumptions regarding the company and its markets, which includes risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements discussed today.

在將電話轉給加里之前，我會提醒您，在這次電話會議中，我們將做出某些前瞻性陳述。此類聲明，包括我們的季度和年度指南以及我們的長期財務展望，對市場機會和戰略的討論以及對供應鏈限制對我們業務和結果的影響的評論，均基於當前對公司的預期、預測和假設及其市場，其中包括可能導致實際結果與今天討論的陳述存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。

Assumptions relating to our outlook, whether mentioned on this call or included in the investor presentation that we will post shortly after, are an important part of such forward-looking statements, and we encourage you to consider them.

與我們的前景相關的假設，無論是在本次電話會議中提到，還是包含在我們不久後發布的投資者介紹中，都是此類前瞻性陳述的重要組成部分，我們鼓勵您考慮它們。

Our forward-looking statements should also be viewed in the context of the risk factors detailed in our most recent 10-K filing and in our upcoming 10-Q filing, which we expect to file with the SEC by June 8. Ciena assumes no obligation to update the information discussed in this conference call, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. As always, we will allow for as much Q&A as possible today. (Operator Instructions) With that, I'll turn the call over to Gary.

我們的前瞻性陳述還應結合我們最近的 10-K 文件和即將提交的 10-Q 文件中詳述的風險因素來看待，我們預計將在 6 月 8 日之前向美國證券交易委員會提交這些文件。Ciena 不承擔任何義務更新本次電話會議中討論的信息，無論是由於新信息、未來事件還是其他原因。與往常一樣，今天我們將盡可能多地進行問答。 （操作員說明）有了這個，我會把電話轉給加里。

Thanks, Gregg, and good morning, everyone. Today, we reported outstanding fiscal second quarter results, including higher-than-expected quarterly revenue of $1.13 billion, an increase of nearly 20% year-over-year, and adjusted gross margin of 43.7%. Our results included very strong profitability metrics as well, with quarterly adjusted operating margin of 13.8% and adjusted EPS of $0.74. We also generated $230 million in cash from operations in Q2.

謝謝，格雷格，大家早上好。今天，我們公佈了出色的第二財季業績，包括高於預期的季度收入 11.3 億美元，同比增長近 20%，調整後的毛利率為 43.7%。我們的業績還包括非常強勁的盈利指標，季度調整後營業利潤率為 13.8%，調整後每股收益為 0.74 美元。我們還從第二季度的運營中獲得了 2.3 億美元的現金。

Overall, we performed better than expected with respect to revenue in the second quarter and indeed for the first half of fiscal 2023. This was driven largely by the supply chain improving faster than anticipated, which enabled us to ship significantly more product to more customers in recent quarters.

總體而言，我們在第二季度乃至 2023 財年上半年的收入表現好於預期。這主要是由於供應鏈的改善速度快於預期，這使我們能夠向更多客戶運送更多產品最近幾個季度。

And to help you understand the magnitude of this dynamic, supply chain improvements have enabled us to improve our lead times to customers by more than 50% year-to-date. Consequently, as the supply chain improves and lead times come down, customers no longer need to place advanced orders to secure supply. As a result, and as expected, orders were lower than revenue in Q2.

為了幫助您了解這種動態的重要性，供應鏈的改進使我們能夠將年初至今的客戶交貨時間縮短 50% 以上。因此，隨著供應鏈的改善和交貨時間的縮短，客戶不再需要提前下訂單來確保供應。因此，正如預期的那樣，第二季度的訂單低於收入。

We are now clearly in a transitionary period, one that is moving from an environment where orders vastly outstrip supply to one where supply and order flow are beginning to come into some kind of balance. Consequently, this is driving a near-term shift in customer ordering and shipment dynamics and behavior.

我們現在顯然處於一個過渡時期，這個時期正在從訂單大大超過供應的環境轉變為供應和訂單流開始達到某種平衡的環境。因此，這正在推動客戶訂購和發貨動態和行為的近期轉變。

Previously, we had discussed some pushouts of orders by our cloud provider customers as they reprofile their spend to align with their budgets. In recent weeks, we've begun to see similar behavior by certain of our large North American service provider customers. And to be really clear, customers are not canceling orders. They are pushing some existing orders into subsequent quarters to better align with their budgets and scheduling capabilities. And this is purely a matter of timing. It is not the result of CapEx cuts, rather it is one of operating within their existing CapEx and logistical capabilities. Therefore, we continue to expect to exit fiscal 2023 with a backlog that is at least double our historical levels on an absolute basis.

此前，我們曾討論過我們的雲提供商客戶在重新規劃支出以符合預算時推出的一些訂單。最近幾週，我們開始看到某些大型北美服務提供商客戶有類似行為。需要明確的是，客戶不會取消訂單。他們將一些現有訂單推到後續季度，以更好地符合他們的預算和調度能力。這純粹是時間問題。這不是資本支出削減的結果，而是在其現有資本支出和後勤能力範圍內運營的結果之一。因此，我們繼續預計 2023 財年的積壓數量至少是我們歷史水平的兩倍。

However, as a result of this transitionary period, as Jim will discuss, we do expect a wider range of potential revenue outcomes for fiscal year 2023. I would also stress that none of the shorter-term transitional supply demand dynamics are in any way a reflection of the durability and strength of the underlying demand drivers in the industry and, of course, our business. But rather, they reflect the transition back to a more balanced supply-and-order environment that is aligned to our annual CapEx spend.

然而，由於這一過渡期，正如吉姆將討論的那樣，我們確實預計 2023 財年的潛在收入結果範圍更廣。我還要強調的是，任何短期過渡供需動態都不是任何方式反映行業潛在需求驅動因素的持久性和強度，當然還有我們的業務。相反，它們反映了向更平衡的供應和訂單環境的過渡，該環境與我們的年度資本支出保持一致。

Overall, we are very encouraged by conversations we're having with our customers, which are once again more strategic in nature, addressing how they can meet the growing demands of their networks. And whilst we are mindful of macroeconomic uncertainty, fundamental demand for bandwidth persists as it has done consistently for many years, including through difficult macro conditions.

總的來說，我們對與客戶的對話感到非常鼓舞，這些對話本質上再次更具戰略性，解決了他們如何滿足其網絡不斷增長的需求。儘管我們注意到宏觀經濟的不確定性，但對帶寬的基本需求依然存在，多年來一直如此，包括在困難的宏觀條件下。

The key demand drivers behind this are strong and are very durable. These range from continued 5G rollouts and increasing cloud adoption to broadband access and the growing need for more automation. In fact, all of these were strong demand drivers prior to COVID and the supply chain challenges of the past few years and are arguably even stronger today.

這背後的關鍵需求驅動力強勁且非常持久。這些範圍從持續的 5G 部署和雲應用的增加到寬帶接入以及對更多自動化的日益增長的需求。事實上，在 COVID 和過去幾年的供應鏈挑戰之前，所有這些都是強勁的需求驅動因素，並且可以說在今天更加強勁。

And of course, AI could prove also to be transformative for service providers and cloud providers alike on top of these existing dynamics. This is increasingly evident with the recent introduction and surging interest in Generative AI platforms, which are widely expected to be a driver of bandwidth demand over time and creating potential new opportunities, of course, for us.

當然，除了這些現有動態之外，人工智能還可以證明對服務提供商和雲提供商等具有變革性。隨著最近對生成式 AI 平台的引入和興趣的激增，這一點越來越明顯，人們普遍預計，隨著時間的推移，這些平台將成為帶寬需求的驅動力，並為我們創造潛在的新機會。

Critical to supporting this demand are the underlying technologies that deliver optimal and future-proof network architectures for both service providers and cloud providers. We, of course, offer many of these key technologies today. With our traditional portfolio, where we are the undisputed leader across metro DWDM and DCI, submarine and long haul. And we continue to increase our technology lead even further.

支持這一需求的關鍵是為服務提供商和雲提供商提供最佳和麵向未來的網絡架構的基礎技術。當然，我們今天提供了許多這樣的關鍵技術。憑藉我們的傳統產品組合，我們在城域 DWDM 和 DCI、海底和長途中是無可爭議的領導者。我們將繼續進一步擴大我們的技術領先地位。

With WaveLogic 6, the first and only 1.6 terabit solution becoming available in the first half of next year, we are very excited about the opportunity in front of us, particularly given our plans to integrate the technology across a range of our optical and routing and switching platforms and also to make it available for use in third-party solutions.

WaveLogic 6 是第一個也是唯一一個 1.6 太比特解決方案，將於明年上半年上市，我們對擺在我們面前的機會感到非常興奮，特別是考慮到我們計劃將該技術集成到我們的一系列光學和路由以及切換平台，並使其可用於第三方解決方案。

Importantly, we've been adding to our diversification and differentiation with an eye towards accretive TAM expansion into faster-growing markets. Our TAM expansion in optical will target the emerging opportunity in coherent plugs and components, including inside the data center over the years to come.

重要的是，我們一直在增加我們的多元化和差異化，著眼於將 TAM 擴展到增長更快的市場。我們在光學領域的 TAM 擴展將瞄準相干插頭和組件的新興機會，包括未來幾年在數據中心內部的機會。

And as you've already seen, technologies to support next-gen metro and edge applications are another focus of our TAM expansion. In this arena, the acquisitions of Vyatta, Tibit and Benu are driving new customer conversations and engagements about the opportunities in virtual routing and broadband access, including PON.

正如您已經看到的，支持下一代城域和邊緣應用程序的技術是我們 TAM 擴展的另一個重點。在這個領域，對 Vyatta、Tibit 和 Benu 的收購正在推動新的客戶對話和參與，討論虛擬路由和寬帶接入（包括 PON）方面的機會。

Additionally, we announced the game-changing wave router platform, an industry-first platform architecture optimally designed for the Converged metro, which will come online this year. An expansion of our family of purpose-built coherent routers, this new product has generated significant interest from customers around the world as we aim to disrupt the edge routing market and capture share. And as a reminder, combining these new markets and opportunities with our existing portfolio, we believe our total addressable market grows from something like 13 billion in 2020 to more than 22 billion over the next several years.

此外，我們還宣布了改變遊戲規則的 wave 路由器平台，這是一種針對融合城域網優化設計的行業首創平台架構，將於今年上線。作為我們專用相干路由器系列的擴展，這款新產品引起了全球客戶的極大興趣，因為我們的目標是顛覆邊緣路由市場並奪取市場份額。提醒一下，將這些新市場和機會與我們現有的產品組合相結合，我們相信我們的潛在市場總量將從 2020 年的 130 億增長到未來幾年的 220 億以上。

Moving to some quick highlights from the quarter that speak to our performance and really illustrate the customer demand for our products. On the portfolio side, in optical, we added 14 new customers in Q2 for WaveLogic 5 Extreme, bringing our total customer count there to 228. And we had another record shipment quarter in Q2 for WaveLogic 5 E, bringing our total of modems shipped to date to 75,000.

轉向本季度的一些快速亮點，這些亮點反映了我們的業績，並真正說明了客戶對我們產品的需求。在產品組合方面，在光學方面，我們在第二季度為 WaveLogic 5 Extreme 添加了 14 個新客戶，使我們的客戶總數達到 228 個。我們在第二季度的 WaveLogic 5 E 出貨量再次創下歷史新高，使我們的調製解調器出貨總量達到日期為 75,000。

In routing and switching, quarterly revenue increased 19% year-over-year. And during the quarter, we secured new wins for our new broadband network gateway from the Benu acquisition.

在路由和交換方面，季度收入同比增長 19%。在本季度，我們通過收購 Benu 獲得了新的寬帶網絡網關的新勝利。

With respect to customer segments and regions, service provider revenue was up 22% year-over-year, and non-telco revenue was 42% of total sales in Q2. This particularly reflects a very strong performance with the cloud providers, including our only 10% customer in the quarter. Direct cloud provider revenue was also up 20% year-over-year and comprised 22% of total revenue in the quarter. And in fact, direct cloud provider revenue grew 32% period-over-period in the first half of '23. And we continue to expect growth with cloud providers this fiscal year that is above the corporate average, which will reinforce our leadership and market share position with this critical customer segment.

在客戶細分和地區方面，服務提供商收入同比增長 22%，非電信收入佔第二季度總銷售額的 42%。這尤其反映了雲提供商的強勁表現，包括本季度我們僅有的 10% 的客戶。直接雲提供商收入也同比增長 20%，佔本季度總收入的 22%。事實上，23 年上半年，直接雲提供商的收入同比增長了 32%。我們繼續預計本財年雲提供商的增長將高於公司平均水平，這將加強我們在這一關鍵客戶群中的領導地位和市場份額。

We also continue to drive growth outside of the U.S. In particular, in Q2, Asia Pacific revenue was up 60% year-over-year. This was largely driven by continued revenue growth in India, which was up 88% year-over-year in Q2 to about $70 million, reflecting consistent strong demand from service providers in that market.

我們還繼續推動美國以外的增長。特別是在第二季度，亞太地區的收入同比增長了 60%。這在很大程度上是由印度收入的持續增長推動的，該收入在第二季度同比增長 88% 至約 7000 萬美元，反映出該市場服務提供商的持續強勁需求。

In summary, as supply and order flow are coming into balance, providing demand is proving strong and very durable. We are incredibly well positioned with a market-leading set of technologies, including new platform releases that advance our leadership and expand our opportunities.

總而言之，隨著供應和訂單流趨於平衡，供應需求被證明是強勁且非常持久的。我們擁有一套市場領先的技術，包括提升我們的領導地位和擴大我們的機會的新平台版本。

With that, I will turn it over to Jim to speak more on what we are going to provide additional detail on the Q2 financial results. Jim?

有了這個，我將把它交給吉姆更多地談論我們將提供的關於第二季度財務結果的更多細節。吉姆？

Thanks, Gary. Good morning, everyone. We delivered outstanding fiscal second quarter financial results. Total revenue in Q2 was $1.13 billion, which reflects our ability to ship more product than expected given improvements in component deliveries, particularly toward the end of the quarter. Adjusted gross margin in the quarter was 43.7% due to a favorable product mix.

謝謝，加里。大家，早安。我們交付了出色的第二財季財務業績。第二季度的總收入為 11.3 億美元，這反映出我們有能力出貨比預期更多的產品，因為組件交付有所改善，尤其是在本季度末。由於有利的產品組合，本季度調整後的毛利率為 43.7%。

Q2 adjusted operating expense was $338 million, reflecting continued investment in innovation and R&D, particularly around our WaveLogic coherent technology and investment aimed at several different areas of TAM expansion.

第二季度調整後的運營費用為 3.38 億美元，反映了對創新和研發的持續投資，特別是圍繞我們的 WaveLogic 相干技術和針對 TAM 擴展的幾個不同領域的投資。

With respect to profitability measures, in Q2, we delivered strong results, including adjusted operating margin of 13.8%, adjusted net income of $110 million and adjusted EPS of $0.74. In addition, we generated $230 million in cash from operations. Adjusted EBITDA in Q2 was $181 million. And finally, we ended the quarter with approximately $1.3 billion in cash and investments. As the operating environment continues to improve, inventory levels came down $80 million from Q1. We expect to continue reducing our inventory levels as we move through the year, which will allow us to return to the consistent level of cash generation we drove before the supply chain disruptions.

在盈利能力方面，我們在第二季度取得了強勁的業績，包括調整後的營業利潤率為 13.8%，調整後的淨收入為 1.1 億美元，調整後的每股收益為 0.74 美元。此外，我們還從運營中獲得了 2.3 億美元的現金。第二季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.81 億美元。最後，我們在本季度結束時擁有大約 13 億美元的現金和投資。隨著經營環境的持續改善，庫存水平較第一季度下降了 8000 萬美元。我們希望在今年繼續降低我們的庫存水平，這將使我們能夠恢復到供應鏈中斷之前我們推動的一致現金產生水平。

We did not repurchase any shares in our fiscal second quarter. We will leverage our balance sheet this quarter to begin to return capital to stockholders again, and we continue to expect that we will repurchase approximately $250 million in shares during this fiscal year.

我們沒有在第二財季回購任何股票。我們將在本季度利用我們的資產負債表再次開始向股東返還資本，我們繼續預計我們將在本財年回購約 2.5 億美元的股票。

Turning now to guidance. As with last quarter, the outlook I'm about to provide reflects key assumptions that we detail in our earnings presentation, including those related to supply and demand dynamics. As Gary mentioned, we are currently in a transition period as we move towards an environment where supply and order flow are more in balance with each other. This is driving some customers to push out their requested shipment days.

現在轉向指導。與上一季度一樣，我即將提供的前景反映了我們在收益報告中詳述的關鍵假設，包括與供需動態相關的假設。正如 Gary 提到的，我們目前正處於過渡期，因為我們正朝著供應和訂單流更加平衡的環境邁進。這促使一些客戶推遲他們要求的發貨日期。

As a result of all of these phenomena, we are broadening the range of our fiscal '23 revenue growth outlook to 18% to 22%, which reflects a wider range of potential outcomes. I'll just remind you that our previous range had been 20% to 22% for the year. We continue to believe that our adjusted gross margin for fiscal year '23 will be in the range of 42% to 44%.

由於所有這些現象，我們將 23 財年收入增長前景的範圍擴大到 18% 至 22%，這反映了更廣泛的潛在結果。我只是提醒你，我們之前的範圍是今年的 20% 到 22%。我們仍然相信，我們調整後的 23 財年毛利率將在 42% 至 44% 之間。

With respect to OpEx for the fiscal year, we now expect it to be approximately $1.33 billion, slightly higher than we last projected as we continue to see opportunities to invest for TAM expansion. For the fiscal third quarter, we expect to deliver revenue in a range of $1 billion to $1.08 billion and adjusted gross margin in the low 40s range. Finally, we expect adjusted operating expense in the quarter to be approximately $335 million.

關於本財年的運營支出，我們現在預計約為 13.3 億美元，略高於我們上次的預期，因為我們繼續看到投資 TAM 擴張的機會。對於第三財季，我們預計收入在 10 億美元至 10.8 億美元之間，調整後的毛利率在 40 多歲左右。最後，我們預計本季度調整後的運營費用約為 3.35 億美元。

At this rate of revenue growth, we will deliver significantly higher than market growth and continue to take share. Our business has never been stronger, backed by strong demand characteristics and the best set of customer relationships in the industry. We are well positioned to expand our addressable markets for future growth opportunities in other markets over time.

以這種收入增長率，我們將實現遠高於市場增長率的增長，並繼續佔據市場份額。在強大的需求特徵和業內最佳客戶關係的支持下，我們的業務從未如此強大。隨著時間的推移，我們有能力擴大我們的潛在市場，以獲得其他市場的未來增長機會。

Of note, we expect tailwinds as we bring new products to market, including WaveLogic 6, WaveRouter and several solutions stemming from the acquisitions we've made over the last couple of years. We are incredibly confident in our business and in the future demand for networking products, services and software.

值得注意的是，隨著我們將新產品推向市場，包括 WaveLogic 6、WaveRouter 和我們在過去幾年中進行的收購產生的幾個解決方案，我們預計會有順風。我們對我們的業務以及未來對網絡產品、服務和軟件的需求充滿信心。

But before we move to questions, I would like to announce that we recently published our new sustainability report. This report details our commitment to sustainability and provides our stakeholders a comprehensive discussion of our programs and the great progress we have made as a company on sustainability. If you'd like to read the report, it is available on the Sustainability pages of our website or you're welcome to e-mail our IR team, and we will send you a PDF copy.

但在開始提問之前，我想宣布我們最近發布了新的可持續發展報告。本報告詳細說明了我們對可持續發展的承諾，並向我們的利益相關者全面討論了我們的計劃以及我們作為一家公司在可持續發展方面取得的巨大進步。如果您想閱讀該報告，可以在我們網站的可持續發展頁面上找到，或者歡迎您給我們的 IR 團隊發送電子郵件，我們將向您發送 PDF 副本。

Jamie, we will now take questions from the sell-side analysts.

傑米，我們現在將接受賣方分析師的提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Simon Leopold from Raymond James.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Simon Leopold。

I want to start out with the WaveRouter announcement. You talked about, I think, general availability this year. I'd like to get a sense of when you think about revenue recognition for that product and how we should sort of think about weaving that into the model? I appreciate you're not guiding to fiscal '24, but I guess I'm just looking for some hints as to how to think about contributions to expect from that next year.

我想從 WaveRouter 公告開始。我認為你談到了今年的普遍可用性。我想知道您何時考慮該產品的收入確認以及我們應該如何考慮將其納入模型？我很感激你沒有指導 24 財年，但我想我只是在尋找一些關於如何考慮明年的預期貢獻的提示。

Yes, Simon, it's Scott. First of all, you have an announcement that was sort of aligned with the MPS Rural Congress. First of all, we got tremendous reception from the customer base with the announcement at the show and lots of press available on that.

是的，西蒙，我是斯科特。首先，你有一個與 MPS 農村代表大會一致的公告。首先，我們在展會上發佈公告並獲得了大量媒體報導，得到了客戶群的熱烈歡迎。

I will remind you that it actually is a part of our broader wave-routing family, so it's a continuation of filling out that capability set. You were bang on the general availability of the product is later this year. Revenue expectations would start flowing in 2024. Obviously, we knew this was coming. So it was part of our overall 3-year growth rate that we gave you historically. That was in our thinking there.

我會提醒您，它實際上是我們更廣泛的 wave-routing 系列的一部分，因此它是該功能集的延續。你對今年晚些時候產品的普遍可用性感到震驚。收入預期將在 2024 年開始流動。顯然，我們知道這會到來。所以這是我們歷史上給你的 3 年整體增長率的一部分。那是我們的想法。

Great. And just as a quick follow-up. Love to get kind of an update on where the India progress is. I know historically, on a small revenue base, it peaked around 9% of revenue. It looks like it was 6% or 7% of revenue this quarter. How should we think about the cadence of the India business for the balance of the year?

偉大的。就像快速跟進一樣。喜歡了解有關印度進展情況的最新信息。我知道從歷史上看，在一個小的收入基礎上，它達到了收入的 9% 左右。看起來它佔本季度收入的 6% 或 7%。我們應該如何考慮今年餘下時間印度業務的節奏？

I would expect it to continue to be strong, Simon, both in the second half and as we get through '24. I think there's a -- as opposed to the rest of the industry, which is not particularly cycle-based, I think India is going through a big cycle of 5G rollout and extension. And I think that's going to happen over the next 1 to 3 years. I would -- and we have #1 market share there across a large number of carriers. So we're very enthusiastic about that market for the next 1 to 3 years.

西蒙，我希望它會在下半年和我們度過 24 年時繼續保持強勁。我認為有一個 - 與不是特別基於週期的其他行業相反，我認為印度正在經歷 5G 推出和擴展的大周期。我認為這將在未來 1 到 3 年內發生。我願意——而且我們在眾多運營商中擁有排名第一的市場份額。因此，我們對未來 1 到 3 年的市場充滿熱情。

We're seeing growth, both in the expansion of rollout of 5G but also, again, putting broadband out into some of the larger areas as well. So I think we're very bullish about the Indian market. What that can be as a percentage of our revenues, tough to tell because the rest of our business is growing well, too, including the cloud players. Cloud players are also playing a big part in India. I would also say that both in the submarine elements to it and obviously directly via carriers into the India market. It's the fastest-growing Internet market in the world right now.

我們看到了增長，無論是在 5G 部署的擴展方面，還是在將寬帶引入一些更大的區域方面。所以我認為我們非常看好印度市場。這占我們收入的百分比很難說，因為我們的其他業務也增長良好，包括雲玩家。雲玩家在印度也發揮著重要作用。我還要說的是，無論是潛艇元素還是直接通過航母進入印度市場。它是目前世界上增長最快的互聯網市場。

Our next question comes from Tim Long from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Tim Long。

Yes, 2, if I could. First, Jim or Gary, can you just give us a little bit more color on kind of the order book-to-bill backlog drawdown in the quarter, just so we can get a sense of how we're working down that balance? And maybe related to that, I guess there's no way to use other backlog to fill in holes. It looks like the second half was lowered a little bit, so maybe a little bit on the fungibility of that backlog. And then I have a margin follow-up.

是的，2，如果可以的話。首先，吉姆或加里，你能不能給我們更多關於本季度訂單到賬單積壓縮減的顏色，這樣我們就能了解我們是如何降低這種平衡的？也許與此有關，我想沒有辦法使用其他積壓來填補漏洞。看起來下半年降低了一點，所以可能有點積壓的可替代性。然後我有保證金跟進。

Yes, Tim. Backlog went down by roughly $600 million. It's about [$3.5 billion]. Remember, we said that our backlog at the end of this year will be roughly double our sort of historical backlog at the end of the year. So we did expect and we continue to expect a decline in backlog. And remember, that's mainly because lead times are down, customers no longer have to order so much advanced gear. So all of this is in keeping with the general situation in the industry.

是的，蒂姆。積壓訂單減少了大約 6 億美元。大約 [35 億美元]。請記住，我們說過今年年底我們的積壓訂單將大約是年底歷史積壓訂單的兩倍。所以我們確實期望並且我們繼續期望積壓量下降。請記住，這主要是因為交貨時間縮短了，客戶不再需要訂購那麼多高級裝備。所以這一切都符合行業的普遍情況。

Okay. Great. And then the -- on the gross margin, could you just -- obviously, there's a lot of mix shifts. I think you had talked about some new network construction coming, which is lower. But can you kind of walk us through the moving parts and as you gain back some margin from supply chain, logistics, et cetera, how would that balance over the next year or so?

好的。偉大的。然後 - 關於毛利率，你能不能 - 顯然，有很多混合變化。我想你已經談到了一些新的網絡建設即將到來，這是較低的。但是你能不能給我們介紹一下移動部件，當你從供應鏈、物流等方面獲得一些利潤時，未來一年左右的平衡情況如何？

On the supply chain dynamics, we said last year that we thought that the exception costs, meaning the cost we pay to brokers to buy components as well as the higher logistics costs, were roughly $150 million to $160 million last year, 4 million -- 4% or so gross margin hit last year. This year, we said that, that's going to come down to sort of 200 basis points or something like that in gross margin. So all those conditions are getting better. I'm not sure what it's going to be next year, but we think over time, those exception costs are going to return to historical levels, which were essentially in the single-digit millions of dollars. So that's going to happen, might not happen all next year, but it will happen over the coming years.

關於供應鏈動態，我們去年說過，我們認為例外成本，即我們支付給經紀人購買組件的成本以及更高的物流成本，去年約為 1.5 億至 1.6 億美元，400 萬——去年毛利率達到 4% 左右。今年，我們說過，毛利率將下降到 200 個基點或類似的水平。所以所有這些條件都在變好。我不確定明年會怎樣，但我們認為隨著時間的推移，這些例外成本將回到歷史水平，基本上是個位數的數百萬美元。所以這將會發生，可能不會在明年發生，但它會在未來幾年發生。

The other -- but the other thing I'd say is that the driver for our gross margins historically has always been product mix. That's been the single largest component of swings in gross margin. Typically in the past, when we put out new line systems, which are low capacity in terms of capacity to deliver bandwidth demand, those are lower gross margins. And as we add capacity, adding modems to the systems, those are higher gross margin, and it's the mix of those 2 that determines, in large part, our gross margin. Of course, routing and switching software tends to be a little higher overall, and so that helps. As those grow as a percentage of our business over time, we think that will add to our gross margin.

另一個——但我要說的另一件事是，從歷史上看，我們毛利率的驅動力一直是產品組合。這是毛利率波動的最大組成部分。通常在過去，當我們推出新線路系統時，這些系統在滿足帶寬需求方面容量較低，毛利率較低。當我們增加容量，向系統中添加調製解調器時，毛利率更高，而這兩者的組合在很大程度上決定了我們的毛利率。當然，路由和交換軟件的總體價格往往更高一些，這會有所幫助。隨著時間的推移，這些業務占我們業務的比例不斷增長，我們認為這將增加我們的毛利率。

We also said this year that we're having a particularly heavy mix of line systems, and that is impacting our gross margin this year. So all of those things are working together to produce the 42% to 44% that we expect in gross margin for this year. Over time, we think we'll get back to the mid-40s, maybe even better.

我們今年還表示，我們的生產線系統組合特別多，這影響了我們今年的毛利率。因此，所有這些因素共同作用，產生了我們今年預期的 42% 至 44% 的毛利率。隨著時間的推移，我們認為我們會回到 40 年代中期，甚至更好。

Our next question comes from Amit Daryanani from Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

I guess maybe to start with, you folks are talking about a broader range of outcomes in the back half. And I think the way you kind of talked about, it was -- it's pushouts of deliveries that you're seeing with North American service providers. Is that the extent of where you're seeing these delivery pushouts? Or could you maybe talk about are you seeing it elsewhere? Or do you think there's risk that it spreads to other geos or other submarkets as well?

我想也許首先，你們正在談論後半部分更廣泛的結果。而且我認為你談論的方式是——你在北美服務提供商那裡看到的交付的推出。這是您看到這些交付推出的程度嗎？或者你能談談你在其他地方看到過嗎？或者您是否認為它也有傳播到其他地理區域或其他子市場的風險？

Yes. Thanks, Amit. It's very specific to North American Tier 1. And as I said in the earlier remarks, we saw that with the cloud players fairly early on, where it really, I think, is the ability. Those 2 sets of customers, both the cloud players and North American Tier 1, we're in a position to place larger forward orders given the supply chain challenges. We did not see that dynamic, particularly internationally, for example. We did not see that phenomena or really in a lot of Tier 2, Tier 3 players in North America. So we think it's really isolated to those 2 groups.

是的。謝謝，阿米特。它非常針對北美第 1 層。正如我在之前的評論中所說，我們很早就看到了雲播放器，我認為這真的是能力。這兩組客戶，包括雲玩家和北美一級供應商，鑑於供應鏈挑戰，我們能夠下更大的遠期訂單。例如，我們沒有看到這種動態，尤其是在國際上。我們沒有在北美的很多 2 級、3 級玩家中看到這種現象，也沒有真正看到這種現象。所以我們認為這兩個群體確實是孤立的。

The cloud ones, we saw that earlier on, and that's all reprofiled and now rolling out. And you're seeing the strength -- notwithstanding that, you're still seeing the strength of the cloud players increasing their revenues this year. So this is really North American Tier 1 players.

雲計算，我們之前已經看到了，所有這些都經過了重新配置，現在正在推出。你看到了實力——儘管如此，你仍然看到雲玩家今年收入增加的實力。所以這真的是北美 Tier 1 玩家。

And I would say a couple of things. It's a confluence of elements. It's -- all of this stuff is suddenly coming out. And not just our equipment, but the broader sort of general technology industry. The supply chain challenges have been ameliorated, and they're all kind of coming at once to them. And these carriers are dealing with both alignment to budgets, the logistical aperture that they have and deployment and absorption. So it's understandable, much the same as we saw with the cloud players that they're balancing this out. We are not seeing cancellations with them. I would also say, we really haven't had any conversations around this being a macroeconomic caution. It's really one kind of to be expected around the whiplash effect of supply and demand.

我會說幾件事。這是元素的融合。這是——所有這些東西都突然冒出來了。不僅是我們的設備，還有更廣泛的通用技術行業。供應鏈的挑戰已經得到緩解，而且它們都會同時出現在他們面前。這些運營商正在處理預算調整、他們擁有的後勤空缺以及部署和吸收。所以這是可以理解的，就像我們在雲播放器中看到的那樣，他們正在平衡這一點。我們沒有看到他們取消。我還要說，我們真的沒有就此作為宏觀經濟謹慎進行過任何對話。圍繞供需的鞭打效應，這確實是一種意料之中的事情。

Got it. That's really helpful. And maybe if I can just kind of follow up on this a bit. Kind of let's say, the magnitude is $80 million, $100 million, I think, something thereabout from this push out basis, do I just think about this as this is just something that's going to flow into fiscal '24 for you? So essentially the way you still end up with the revenues, but maybe growth is a little lower than what you thought, but a lot smoother with the extended duration? So I guess, maybe just talk about does this just flow into '24? And does that just imply that growth rates will be more steady as you go into the out years?

知道了。這真的很有幫助。也許我可以稍微跟進一下。比方說，規模是 8000 萬美元，1 億美元，我認為，從這個推出的基礎上大約有一些東西，我只是想這個，因為這只是會流入財政 '24 的東西嗎？所以基本上你仍然以收入結束的方式，但也許增長比你想像的要低一點，但隨著持續時間的延長會更加平穩？所以我想，也許只是談論這是否會流入 24 年？這是否僅僅意味著隨著你進入未來幾年，增長率會更加穩定？

Well, clearly, some of this is moving to '24. I wouldn't -- right now, I wouldn't do anything to change our call for '24. I wouldn't suggest that you changed your numbers for '24. We think '24 is going to be very strong for us, by the way, because we see the demand from our customers, and we have the opportunity to take some of that expanded TAM. So it's going to be a good year. But I wouldn't just sort of take the -- whatever number you're projecting that we -- I'm not going to deliver this year and add it to your call for next year. I don't think that's the right way to think about it.

好吧，很明顯，其中一些正在轉移到 24 年。我不會 - 現在，我不會做任何事情來改變我們對 '24 的呼籲。我不建議您更改 24 年的號碼。順便說一句，我們認為 '24 對我們來說會非常強大，因為我們看到了客戶的需求，並且我們有機會利用一些擴展的 TAM。所以這將是一個好年頭。但我不會只是接受——無論你預測我們的數字是多少——我不會在今年交付並將其添加到你明年的電話中。我不認為這是思考它的正確方法。

But to your point, Amit mean, I do think it should give us greater visibility into next year. And if that -- if we play that dynamic through, we're still going to enter the year with sort of double what our backlog levels would normally be. So I think this transitionary period will be -- as we start to exit the year and things get more into balance, then I think we get into a more normalized set of dynamics around order and delivery and shipment. But I do think we're going to have better visibility into '24 as a result of this scheduling.

但就你的觀點而言，Amit 的意思是，我確實認為它應該讓我們對明年有更大的了解。如果那樣——如果我們發揮這種活力，我們仍然會以雙倍的積壓水平進入這一年。所以我認為這個過渡時期將是——隨著我們開始結束這一年，事情變得更加平衡，然後我認為我們會圍繞訂單、交付和裝運進入一個更加正常化的動態集。但我確實認為，由於這種安排，我們將對 '24 有更好的了解。

Our next question comes from Alex Henderson from Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Alex Henderson。

So just a couple of quick clarifications. What do you think the normal backlog is that you're going to stabilize around? And how is that going to be different from where you were prior to the supply chain pressures? I think it's probably a little longer than normal historical.

所以只是一些快速的澄清。您認為正常的積壓工作是您要穩定的情況？這與供應鏈壓力之前的情況有何不同？我認為這可能比正常的歷史要長一點。

Well, it's hard to make an exact prediction of where our backlog is going to end up, because it will depend upon 2 critical variables. One is where our lead times are; and second, what customer behavior is with respect to lead times and how much security they want to have in terms of making their demand visible to us.

好吧，很難準確預測我們的積壓工作將在哪裡結束，因為這將取決於 2 個關鍵變量。一個是我們的交貨時間；其次，客戶在交貨時間方面的行為是什麼，以及他們希望在讓我們看到他們的需求方面有多大的安全性。

If you go back historically, our backlog into the year for many years was roughly 1/3 of the coming year's revenue, roughly 1/3. Now as we came into this supply chain situation, and we had massive orders -- extended orders and extended lead times, it went up to something like 65% of our expected revenue for '22 and 90% of our revenue -- expected revenue for '23. We think that it's going to go back down towards that 35% of expected revenue. But it might not go all the way down, because our lead times might not be quite as short as they were in the past and customers may choose to give us advanced orders. So it's hard to know. But we're going to have probably a higher backlog at the end of this year than we will as the situation totally gets back to something approaching normal.

如果你回顧歷史，我們多年來積壓的年度收入大約是來年收入的 1/3，大約是 1/3。現在，當我們進入這種供應鏈情況時，我們有大量訂單 - 延長訂單和延長交貨時間，它上升到我們 22 年預期收入的 65% 和我們收入的 90% - 預期收入'23。我們認為它將回落到預期收入的 35%。但它可能不會一直下降，因為我們的交貨時間可能不像過去那麼短，客戶可能會選擇提前給我們訂單。所以很難知道。但到今年年底，隨著情況完全恢復到接近正常的水平，我們可能會有更多的積壓。

And then -- so you talked about the optical line systems being a larger percentage of sales this year than normal. And I assume that, that's also the case with your backlog. But when you sell optical line systems almost invariably, that turns into additional future sales of optical transmission components. So can you talk about whether that additional capacity to widen up the optical line systems is in backlog? Or is that something that we should expect once these are delivered, once they're installed, once they're put in with the ROADMs that we start to see those additional orders coming in for the high-margin transceivers?

然後 - 所以你談到今年光線路系統的銷售額比正常情況更大。我認為，您的積壓也是如此。但是，當您幾乎總是銷售光線路系統時，這會轉化為光傳輸組件的額外未來銷售。那麼您能否談談擴大光線路系統的額外容量是否積壓？或者是我們應該期待的東西，一旦這些交付，一旦它們被安裝，一旦它們與 ROADM 一起投入，我們就會開始看到那些額外的訂單進入高利潤率的收發器？

You are exactly right. We do tend to get higher orders for the capacity after a period of time, during which, we put out line systems. So yes, that does happen.

你是對的。我們確實傾向於在一段時間後獲得更高的容量訂單，在此期間，我們推出了線路系統。所以是的，這確實發生了。

As far as whether that's in backlog now, some of it is. I mean, a customer is going to give us a set of orders that consists both of the line systems and the capacity to add. But the bulk of it is not. The bulk of it will come over the coming years.

至於現在是否積壓，其中一些是。我的意思是，客戶將給我們一組訂單，其中包括生產線系統和新增容量。但大部分不是。其中大部分將在未來幾年到來。

So that implies that there is a time lag from the time the order comes in or that's installed to the new orders for transceivers? And what is that lag? Is it -- is that a '24 new order opportunity?

那麼這意味著從收到訂單或安裝到收發器的新訂單之間存在時間滯後？那是什麼滯後？是——這是一個 24 世紀的新訂單機會嗎？

It varies tremendously between customers. Some large customers place the line systems out with a small amount of capacity in it, then that gets layered in after that. Submarine cables tends to be higher initial deployments. For example, they tend to put more capacity out there from day 1, where terrestrial, I'm really generalizing here, tends to be less capacity to it. But it also varies quite a lot from customer to customer and their varied approach. I think the kind of good news from all of this is we're laying a lot of future track in our business with a lot of new build-outs around the world. So we're very encouraged by the new builds that are going on there, but the mix does vary.

客戶之間的差異很大。一些大客戶將線路系統放在外面，其中有少量容量，然後再分層。海底電纜往往是更高的初始部署。例如，他們傾向於從第一天開始就增加容量，而我在這裡概括地說，地面容量往往較少。但它也因客戶和他們不同的方法而有很大差異。我認為所有這一切帶來的好消息是，我們正在為我們的業務鋪設很多未來軌道，在世界各地有很多新的擴建項目。因此，我們對那裡正在進行的新構建感到非常鼓舞，但組合確實有所不同。

Yes.

是的。

Our next question comes from George Notter from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 George Notter。

I guess I wanted to ask about product lead times. I think you guys mentioned that they're coming down quite a bit. Can you just talk about lead times? Where are they now? Where have they been historically? I'm just curious on the viewpoint there. And then also, is there a possibility that customers are building up excess inventory here, where they've been building big buffers and over ordering? And now the time is they're working off those buffers? Or what's the perspective?

我想我想問一下產品交貨時間。我想你們提到他們正在下降很多。你能談談交貨時間嗎？他們現在在哪裡？他們在歷史上去過哪裡？我只是對那裡的觀點感到好奇。然後，客戶是否有可能在這裡建立過剩庫存，他們一直在建立大量緩沖和過度訂購？現在是他們處理這些緩衝區的時候了嗎？或者是什麼觀點？

Yes, George. On the lead times, obviously, if you resonate with the fact we have a very broad portfolio. So mileage may vary a bit from product to product. But in general, what we said going into the year, our lead times were normally around 52 weeks. As we said in the script, we've cut that by more than half year-to-date, and we would expect to continue to improve that as we go through the rest of the year.

是的，喬治。顯然，在交貨時間方面，如果您對我們擁有非常廣泛的產品組合這一事實產生共鳴。因此，里程可能因產品而異。但總的來說，正如我們所說的那樣，我們的交貨時間通常在 52 週左右。正如我們在劇本中所說，今年迄今我們已經削減了一半以上，我們希望在今年餘下的時間裡繼續改進這一點。

George, on the second question around excess inventory, I'd add a couple of -- I'd place a couple of comments to that. One, I think really, what we're talking about is the cloud players on the North American Tier 1s. I think it's fair to say they were both in a strong position to -- when lead times really began to move out, they were fairly aggressive around securing future orders.

喬治，關於關於庫存過剩的第二個問題，我想補充幾點——我會對此發表一些評論。第一，我認為我們正在談論的是北美一級的雲播放器。我認為可以公平地說，他們都處於有利地位——當交貨時間真正開始轉移時，他們在確保未來訂單方面相當積極。

Now when all of that comes together at the same time and our lead times come down significantly, as Scott talked about, we're turning up with the truck and their ability to absorb all of that, both from a budget point of view in that particular period and from a logistical point of view is sort of challenged. Whether you call that excess inventory, now it's tough to tell. But clearly, they're not able to absorb the equipment all in one hit like that.

現在，當所有這些同時出現並且我們的交貨時間顯著縮短時，正如斯科特所說，我們正在出現卡車以及他們吸收所有這些的能力，無論是從預算的角度來看特定時期和從後勤的角度來看有點挑戰。你是否稱之為過剩庫存，現在很難說。但顯然，他們不可能像那樣一擊就把裝備全部吸收掉。

So we saw that reprofiling with the cloud players. And we're seeing that reprofiling and rescheduling with the Tier 1s. But frankly, that's kind of to be expected given the whiplash that has gone on here. But I think we've now got pretty good visibility with that from a profile point of view. And it's sort of, I think, part of the normalization process that we're going through is the supply chain lead times have come down.

所以我們看到了雲播放器的重新配置。我們看到了 1 級的重新配置和重新安排。但坦率地說，考慮到這裡發生的鞭打，這是可以預料的。但我認為從個人資料的角度來看，我們現在已經有了很好的知名度。我認為，這是我們正在經歷的正常化過程的一部分，供應鏈交貨時間已經縮短。

Are your lead times still longer than your competitors, just out of curiosity?

出於好奇，您的交貨時間是否仍比競爭對手長？

We don't think so. By the way, any competitive (inaudible) as customers and ship, we're kind of ahead of others. We tend not to do that. We tend to play it fairly right down the middle (inaudible) serve. But competitors can prioritize certain customers if they choose to, and it could appear in limited circumstances that their lead times are long or shorter now. But as a general, we don't take longer.

我們不這麼認為。順便說一下，任何有競爭力的（聽不清）作為客戶和船舶，我們都領先於其他人。我們傾向於不那樣做。我們傾向於在中間（聽不清）發球時恰到好處地發揮它。但如果競爭對手願意，他們可以優先考慮某些客戶，而且在有限的情況下，他們的交貨時間現在可能會變長或變短。但作為將軍，我們不會花更長的時間。

Well, I think the other sort of point, just to underline that is, you look at our revenue growth, even the bottom end of our range. You took an 18% growth. I don't know any other optical player of our size and scale that's doing that kind of piece. So we're clearly taking market share.

好吧，我認為另一種觀點，只是為了強調，你看看我們的收入增長，甚至是我們範圍的底端。你取得了 18% 的增長。我不知道有任何其他像我們這樣規模和規模的光學播放器正在做這種事情。所以我們顯然正在佔據市場份額。

And our next question comes from Samik Chatterjee from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

I guess if I can start with the orders, I think the -- just the rough math indicates your orders last quarter were about 900 million, then moderating to about 500 million. But it's largely a function of lead times coming in. Is there a bit more visibility in terms of when the orders start to stabilize on a sequential basis? Just -- and maybe if you can share any insights in terms of what have been the early order trends in the quarter were. When do you think the stabilized as lead times sort of the duration of the order book becomes more consistent going forward? And I have a follow-up.

我想如果我可以從訂單開始，我認為 - 只是粗略的數學表明你上個季度的訂單約為 9 億，然後減至約 5 億。但這在很大程度上取決於交貨時間的到來。就訂單何時開始連續穩定而言，是否有更多的可見性？只是 - 也許您可以就本季度的早期訂單趨勢分享任何見解。您認為訂單持續時間的穩定交付時間什麼時候變得更加一致？我有一個後續行動。

Well, the first thing I'd say is that if you just run the math on our comments around backlog, we do expect that orders will be a bit lower than revenue for each of the next 2 quarters, most likely. Now who knows, as we approach the end of the year, sometimes customers start to order in advance and so that might change our view. But if you just take the rough math over the next couple of quarters, we do think that orders will be less than our revenue.

好吧，我要說的第一件事是，如果你只是對我們關於積壓的評論進行數學計算，我們確實預計接下來兩個季度的每個季度訂單都將略低於收入，這很可能。現在誰知道呢，隨著年底的臨近，有時客戶會開始提前訂購，這可能會改變我們的看法。但如果你只是粗略地計算一下接下來幾個季度的情況，我們確實認為訂單會少於我們的收入。

Now as we go into next year, we think that orders will recover. We can't give you a date on that precisely. But underlying demand for bandwidth is continuing to grow. All of our conversations with our customers show that the market will continue to grow. We've gone through a very tumultuous time with respect to lead times and availability of supply and orders, and all those things have gone through enormous change. It will begin to get back towards a more stable environment sometime next year in terms of their ordering patterns and our backlog.

現在進入明年，我們認為訂單將會恢復。我們不能給你確切的日期。但對帶寬的潛在需求正在持續增長。我們與客戶的所有對話都表明市場將繼續增長。在交貨時間以及供應和訂單的可用性方面，我們經歷了一段非常動蕩的時期，所有這些都經歷了巨大的變化。就他們的訂購模式和我們的積壓而言，明年某個時候它將開始回到更穩定的環境。

Okay. Got it. And for my follow-up, if I can ask you to sort of dig into the service provider timing sort of issues that you're seeing a bit more in North America. I mean, is it more of delays of complete projects that you're seeing from them? Or is it more of a downsizing of how much capacity that they're looking to deploy? And if you can compare it to on a related magnitude, how much of a push out are you seeing greater to the web scalers that you had highlighted the issue with last quarter.

好的。知道了。對於我的後續行動，如果我可以請你深入研究服務提供商的時間問題，你在北美看到的更多。我的意思是，您從他們那裡看到的更多是完整項目的延誤嗎？或者更多的是縮減他們希望部署的容量？而且，如果您可以將其與相關幅度進行比較，那麼您看到上個季度強調問題的網絡縮放器的推出量有多大。

I would say that it's largely the larger North American Tier 1 players. It's more about their ability to absorb and deploy and deal with logistics with all of this stuff coming at a given point. It seems like the supply chain is really resolving fairly quickly, and that's across not just our industry, but a number of other technology industries that they deal with. And so across their whole supply chain, they're really seeing a high influx of equipment and products, and they're having to manage that, both from a logistic point of view, a budget point of view, a deployment point of view, all those various elements. And it's still going to be up year-over-year because they need the kick, but their ability to actually absorb and schedule all of that is obviously challenging for them at any one given point in time.

我會說這主要是較大的北美一級玩家。這更多是關於他們吸收、部署和處理物流的能力，所有這些東西都會在給定的時間點到來。供應鏈似乎真的很快就解決了，這不僅涉及我們的行業，而且涉及他們處理的許多其他技術行業。因此，在他們的整個供應鏈中，他們確實看到設備和產品大量湧入，他們必須從物流的角度、預算的角度、部署的角度進行管理，所有這些不同的元素。而且它仍然會同比增長，因為他們需要踢球，但他們實際吸收和安排所有這些的能力顯然在任何給定時間點對他們來說都是挑戰。

But if you look through all of that, you look at pretty steady growth. And in fact, even if you drew a line pre-COVID right to the end of the year, depending on what your assumptions are, you're looking at very good growth within the North American Tier 1 carriers with us. And even if you look through this rescheduling, you're still seeing very healthy growth this year. And obviously, the cloud players, we're saying is actually going to grow faster than whatever we end up with our corporate average as well. So it's a healthy environment. They're just dealing with this transitional period on the supply and demand dynamics.

但是，如果你仔細審視所有這些，你就會看到相當穩定的增長。事實上，即使你在 COVID 之前畫了一條線，直到年底，根據你的假設，你會看到北美一級運營商與我們的增長非常好。即使你看過這次重新安排，你仍然會看到今年非常健康的增長。顯然，我們所說的雲玩家實際上會比我們最終得出的企業平均水平更快地增長。所以這是一個健康的環境。他們只是在處理這個供需動態的過渡時期。

And our next question comes from David Vogt from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 David Vogt。

I had a near-term question and then maybe a longer-term question. I think midway through the quarter, you announced that, obviously, you were going to make the quarter. You weren't affected by some of your partners sort of variable -- variability in their numbers. But I think I also heard Jim say that improvements in components late in the quarter really drove sort of the upside. So can you maybe just help us understand how the quarter is tracking from a linearity perspective? And was the upside in the quarter, I guess, in the third month?

我有一個近期問題，然後可能是一個長期問題。我認為在本季度的中途，你宣布，很明顯，你將進入本季度。你沒有受到你的一些合作夥伴的影響——他們數量的可變性。但我想我也聽到吉姆說，本季度末組件的改進確實推動了某種上行。那麼，您能否從線性角度幫助我們了解該季度的跟踪情況？我猜，在第三個月，本季度是否有上升空間？

And then I'll give you the second one as well. From a long-term perspective, I think I also heard Jim talk about, expect the fiscal '24 to be a relatively strong year as well. I would imagine that would mean -- I would take that to mean that's above the longer-term average in the growth of the optical industry and your ability to take share. If that's right, I'm just trying to think, does that mean we get back to a more normalized cadence in the out year, let's say, call it, fiscal '25, where we're no longer in this transitionary period?

然後我也會給你第二個。從長遠的角度來看，我想我也聽吉姆說過，預計 24 財年也將是相對強勁的一年。我想這意味著——我認為這意味著這高於光學行業增長的長期平均水平和你分享的能力。如果那是對的，我只是想想想，這是否意味著我們在過去的一年裡回到了一個更正常的節奏，比如說，稱之為 25 財年，我們不再處於這個過渡時期？

Yes. The thing I'll remind you, you, David, and others, is that the supply of components and the constraints on supply components particularly affected us in our ability to deliver modems, which are capacity units and are typically higher volume. That has been the most significant constraints as well as we experienced the highest degree of volatility and variability in delivery of those components.

是的。我要提醒你，你，大衛和其他人的是，組件供應和供應組件的限制特別影響我們交付調製解調器的能力，調製解調器是容量單位，通常體積較大。這是最重要的限制，我們在交付這些組件時經歷了最高程度的波動和可變性。

What's happened is that we have now come to a point in time where the volumes of deliveries of those components and the timing is approaching normal. And when I say timing, I mean relative to expected dates, the lead times are still a bit extended. But we're getting the components that we order now on time and in the volumes that we ordered. That was not true for any of the last 6 or 7 quarters. But in this most recent quarter, we still had an experience where we -- our estimate as to what we would get in terms of these modem components was less than what actually came in. It did come in, in the last month of the quarter. And we -- and so consequently, that drove a revenue upside and a bit of a margin upside, to be honest with you. We don't expect that to reoccur because, as I said, now these component suppliers are delivering per their lead times and in the volumes that we order. So that's what I'd say about the quarter.

發生的事情是，我們現在已經到了這些組件的交付量和時間接近正常的時間點。當我說時間安排時，我的意思是相對於預期日期，交貨時間仍然有點延長。但是我們正在按時按我們訂購的數量獲得我們現在訂購的組件。在過去的 6 或 7 個季度中，情況並非如此。但在最近這個季度，我們仍然有這樣的經歷——我們對這些調製解調器組件的估計低於實際的數量。它確實在本季度的最後一個月出現了.老實說，我們 - 因此，這推動了收入增長和利潤率上漲。我們不希望這種情況再次發生，因為正如我所說，現在這些組件供應商正在按照他們的交貨時間和我們訂購的數量交付。這就是我對本季度的看法。

David, in terms of your question about '24, obviously, it's way too early for us to give a guide for '24. But as Jim said earlier, given the dynamics that we're seeing, we feel very positive around that. We're obviously going to go in with a strong backlog, good visibility to North America and cloud players into the first part of '24. That's for sure. We're seeing very good engagement around pipeline and demand for '24. And obviously, we've got a lot of new products and technology coming into market, WaveRouter, et cetera, WaveLogic 6. We've got all of the PON stuff that's coming through. So we do feel that it's going to be a strong year in '24.

大衛，就你關於 '24 的問題而言，顯然，我們現在為 '24 提供指南還為時過早。但正如吉姆早些時候所說，鑑於我們所看到的動態，我們對此感到非常積極。很明顯，我們將在 24 年的第一部分進入大量積壓，對北美和雲玩家的良好知名度。這是肯定的。我們看到圍繞管道的良好參與和對 24 年的需求。很明顯，我們有很多新產品和技術進入市場，WaveRouter 等等，WaveLogic 6。我們已經有了所有正在通過的 PON 東西。所以我們確實認為 24 年將是強勁的一年。

Our next question comes from Tal Liani from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Tal Liani。

What is the risk of cancellation of backlog? Given that we're seeing pushouts, where is the border line between the pushout and a constellation of order? And the second question is, can you give us the -- what are the differences in the trends you're seeing in terms of pushouts, the trends you're seeing with cloud versus service providers versus cable? Are these all the same? Or are you seeing different trends in each one of them?

取消積壓的風險是什麼？鑑於我們看到推出，推出和訂單星座之間的邊界線在哪裡？第二個問題是，你能告訴我們——你在推出方面看到的趨勢有什麼不同，你在雲、服務提供商和電纜方面看到的趨勢是什麼？這些都一樣嗎？還是您在每一個中都看到了不同的趨勢？

Tal, I'll take a stab at it, and Gary will probably chime in as well. There's a clear line between the cancellation and a pushout. Cancellation means that they take the order away from us. We're not seeing that anymore. As you'll recall, we did see a bit of that at the end of last year, but it was a trickle. And we really haven't seen much in the way of cancellations.

Tal，我會嘗試一下，Gary 可能也會插話。取消和推出之間有明確的界限。取消意味著他們取消了我們的訂單。我們再也看不到了。你會記得，去年年底我們確實看到了一些，但那隻是涓涓細流。我們真的沒有看到太多取消的方式。

What we're seeing is pushouts. What they're saying is they want the gear and they wanted it -- but they want it at a later date. So that's what I'd say. It's a very clear line, not question at all. And I'd also say this, as they're looking at their needs and what they've already placed, they certainly have the opportunity to cancel these orders if they wanted to. We're not seeing it. They didn't do it. They pushed it out. They want the gear.

我們看到的是推出。他們說的是他們想要裝備，他們想要它——但他們想要在以後的日期。這就是我要說的。這是一條非常明確的路線，根本不是問題。我還要這樣說，因為他們正在研究他們的需求和他們已經下的訂單，如果他們願意，他們當然有機會取消這些訂單。我們沒有看到它。他們沒有這樣做。他們把它推出去了。他們想要裝備。

And in terms of the segmentation, Tal, in there, I think we saw this phenomenon happen with the cloud players a little bit earlier. They're all reprofiled and playing through. We've got good visibility to the second half and for the first half of '24, and we're involved in their projects.

就細分而言，Tal，在那裡，我認為我們更早地看到這種現象發生在雲播放器上。他們都被重塑和播放。我們對 24 年下半年和上半年有很好的了解，我們參與了他們的項目。

North American one is a bit more of a recent phenomenon with them as we've now sort of improved lead times to them. I would include some of the larger cable players in there as well, to your point. When I talk about large North American Tier 1s, I would actually include the larger players in there as well. And we're seeing the same phenomenon with them.

北美的是他們最近才出現的現象，因為我們現在已經縮短了他們的交貨時間。根據您的觀點，我也會在其中包括一些較大的有線電視播放器。當我談論北美大型 1 級時，我實際上也會包括較大的玩家。我們在他們身上看到了同樣的現象。

And our next question comes from Michael Genovese from Rosenblatt Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Rosenblatt Securities 的 Michael Genovese。

First question, I just wanted to double check some of this backlog math. I thought that backlog was over $4 billion at the end of 1Q. So if it came down by $600 million, it should have been about $3.5 billion? And I just can't -- I didn't hear earlier whether that was the number you gave.

第一個問題，我只是想仔細檢查一些積壓的數學。我認為在第一季度末積壓訂單超過 40 億美元。那麼，如果它下降了 6 億美元，它應該是 35 億美元左右？我只是不能——我之前沒有聽說這是否是你提供的數字。

Yes, that's the number we gave.

是的，那是我們給的數字。

Okay. Perfect. So none of it did disappear. So that's good. So then, I guess my real question is, is broadband and strategy in terms of fiber to the home, could you just talk to us a little bit more about that? And I'm particularly interested in what types of carriers, what tier of carrier, what geographies you think you'll have the most success with there?

好的。完美的。所以它們都沒有消失。所以這很好。那麼，我想我真正的問題是，在光纖到戶方面的寬帶和戰略，你能再和我們談談嗎？我特別感興趣的是什麼類型的運營商，什麼級別的運營商，你認為你會在哪些地區取得最大的成功？

So Mike, our clear strategy on the broadband piece is to go after, I'll say, the next-generation technology as a wedge of opportunity in the marketplace, specifically 10-gig, next-generation PON and above, and not chasing sort of the legacy-gig PON or other technologies there. So that was the motivation for our acquisitions of Tibit and Benu.

所以邁克，我們在寬帶領域的明確戰略是追求下一代技術作為市場機會的楔子，特別是 10 千兆，下一代 PON 及以上，而不是追逐某種傳統的千兆 PON 或那裡的其他技術。這就是我們收購 Tibit 和 Benu 的動機。

In terms of the market traction, we are seeing it actually across the board in terms of examples of Tier 1 service providers that have a very broad broadband access business today to some of the smaller municipality types that are chasing the world of broadband opportunities, but also the cable cos that are looking at when they'd be on their existing footprint, building out fiber versus their DOCSIS approach. So it's sort of pretty broad brush in that sense, but it is an interception of sort of a next-generation technology.

就市場吸引力而言，我們實際上看到了它的全面發展，例如今天擁有非常廣泛的寬帶接入業務的一級服務提供商到一些正在追逐寬帶機會世界的較小城市類型，但是還有有線電視公司，他們正在考慮何時使用現有足跡，構建光纖而不是 DOCSIS 方法。所以從這個意義上說，它有點廣泛，但它是一種下一代技術的攔截。

And if there's anything I'd add to that is, Mike, we are seeing that in a lot of different places around the world. There's a lot of countries really having various broadband similar to exactly, as Scott sort of described, in different parts of the world. So it is really a global opportunity.

如果我要補充什麼，邁克，我們在世界各地的許多不同地方都看到了這一點。正如 Scott 在世界不同地區所描述的那樣，確實有很多國家/地區擁有各種寬帶。所以這真的是一個全球性的機會。

And our next question comes from Meta Marshall from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Meta Marshall。

Maybe just is there any more trends on the pushouts? And just whether they're kind of specific regions or new markets or lower speed maintenance purchases that maybe they feel like they have enough or the higher speed refreshes? Just trying to get a sense of are there any trends as to kind of what orders are getting pushed out more than others. And then maybe a second question for me. Any changes you've seen so far and just kind of the makeup of the cloud architectures as some of the Generative AI traffic starts to change traffic patterns within the data center?

也許推出還有更多趨勢？他們是特定地區或新市場，還是他們覺得自己有足夠的低速維護購買或更高速度的更新？只是想了解一下是否有任何趨勢表明哪些訂單比其他訂單更容易被推遲。然後可能是我的第二個問題。到目前為止，您看到的任何變化以及雲架構的構成，因為一些生成 AI 流量開始改變數據中心內的流量模式？

Meta, why don't I take the first part of that. I would say, it's not specific to any particular architectural part of the network. It's really about they placed forward orders. They didn't know exactly when they were all going to arrive. They're sort of all arriving in a very tight time frame, and it's just purely their ability to deal with that, both from a budget point of view, a CapEx point of view and from a logistical point of view. Think deployment, warehousing, et cetera. So it's not specific to any PON or metro or long haul. It's really impacting all of their projects. And they're trying to prioritize certain projects and certain things that they're working, but there's no commonality of that. I think we've looked through any of the carriers. It's purely a high level logistical budget issue as a result of the sort of the whiplash. So there's no really refined firm around the actual elements that they're reprofiling and rescheduling.

Meta，為什麼我不講第一部分呢？我會說，它並不特定於網絡的任何特定架構部分。這真的是關於他們下達的訂單。他們不知道他們什麼時候會到達。他們都在非常緊迫的時間框架內到達，這純粹是他們處理這個問題的能力，無論是從預算的角度、資本支出的角度還是從後勤的角度。考慮部署、倉儲等。所以它不特定於任何 PON、城域網或長途網。這確實影響了他們所有的項目。他們正試圖對某些項目和他們正在做的某些事情進行優先排序，但這沒有共同點。我想我們已經查看過任何一家運營商。由於這種鞭打，這純粹是一個高級後勤預算問題。因此，圍繞他們正在重新配置和重新安排的實際元素並沒有真正完善的公司。

We believe it's an incredibly exciting technology. And with Generative AI coming to play, it's certainly going to change the world. There's no doubt about it. Now the first part of the world that's going to change is inside the data center, because the demands for compute are growing -- will grow at astounding pace. And that will certainly rub off onto our business over time. But we -- I can't say that to date, we've seen any effect on orders or customer behavior with us. It will, though.

我們相信這是一項令人難以置信的令人興奮的技術。隨著生成式 AI 的出現，它肯定會改變世界。毫無疑問。現在，世界上第一個要發生變化的部分是數據中心內部，因為對計算的需求正在增長——將以驚人的速度增長。隨著時間的推移，這肯定會影響到我們的業務。但我們——到目前為止我還不能說，我們已經看到對訂單或客戶行為的任何影響。不過，它會的。

And our next question comes from Greg Mesniaeff from WestPark Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 WestPark Capital 的 Greg Mesniaeff。

I was wondering if you can just quickly touch base on your software business, Blue Planet specifically? I guess that's been kind of pushed to the back burner. And if any of that technology can be reincorporated or repurposed or included in some of your new product offerings, including WaveLogic 6.

我想知道您是否可以快速談談您的軟件業務，特別是 Blue Planet？我想這有點被擱置了。如果任何技術可以重新整合或重新利用或包含在您的一些新產品中，包括 WaveLogic 6。

Thanks, Greg. No, I understand, given all the supply chain challenges over the last sort of 18 months or so, we haven't talked too much around our software business, which continues to do well. We are taking various elements of that whole automation strategy and putting it in products like MCP, which we've now really pretty much got all of our major customers around the world taking, where we can then put applications on top of that. So we're parlaying that micro services type automation architecture across the portfolio. We're also putting automation into our line systems as well and the most intelligent line systems in the world. And so we very much see automation as a key thread throughout all of our portfolio.

謝謝，格雷格。不，我理解，鑑於過去 18 個月左右的所有供應鏈挑戰，我們沒有就我們的軟件業務談太多，它繼續表現良好。我們正在採用整個自動化策略的各種元素，並將其放入像 MCP 這樣的產品中，我們現在幾乎已經讓世界各地的所有主要客戶都採用了這些產品，然後我們可以在這些產品之上放置應用程序。因此，我們正在整個產品組合中使用微服務類型的自動化架構。我們還將自動化應用到我們的生產線系統以及世界上最智能的生產線系統中。因此，我們非常將自動化視為貫穿我們所有產品組合的關鍵線索。

And a very specific example of that technology reuse, if you look at what we've announced in our wave-routing family, one of the key attributes of that is to be able to manage a multilayer network in our customer domain. There's key technology in the Blue Planet family around that, that if you're familiar with the portfolio, it's the rollout part of the portfolio, which we have used and integrated into our MCP platform to provide that multilayer administration, which is a key stumbling block for our customers to actually be able to recognize convergence.

技術重用的一個非常具體的例子，如果你看一下我們在波路由系列中宣布的內容，其中一個關鍵屬性是能夠在我們的客戶域中管理多層網絡。 Blue Planet 系列中有關鍵技術，如果您熟悉該產品組合，它就是產品組合的推出部分，我們已經使用它並將其集成到我們的 MCP 平台中以提供多層管理，這是一個關鍵的絆腳石讓我們的客戶真正能夠識別收斂。

And a quick follow-up. Can you give us an update on the Huawei replacement time line, both in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world?

並進行快速跟進。您能否向我們介紹一下美國和世界其他地方的華為更換時間表？

Yes, Greg, I would say, in the U.S., it continues to roll out, particularly -- now they didn't have a lot of long-haul networks. It's relative small. You've got some broadband stuff, but again, relatively small. We're involved with most of that are customers of ours, so that's playing through.

是的，格雷格，我會說，在美國，它繼續推出，特別是 - 現在他們沒有很多長途網絡。它相對較小。你有一些寬帶的東西，但同樣，相對較小。我們參與其中的大部分是我們的客戶，所以這正在發揮作用。

In Europe, I think that's a longer -- it was a larger installed base. And that takes longer to play through. I still think that's going to take, even on the transport infrastructure side, probably in next 1 to 3 years. Obviously, we're winning more than our fair share of that play out. But to take transport -- embedded transport equipment out of the network is a nontrivial thing and is very expensive for these carriers as well. So that journey continues on the whole Huawei replacement.

在歐洲，我認為這是一個更長的時間——它是一個更大的安裝基礎。這需要更長的時間才能完成。我仍然認為，即使在交通基礎設施方面，這也可能需要 1 到 3 年的時間。顯然，我們贏得的比我們應得的更多。但是要將傳輸——嵌入式傳輸設備從網絡中移除是一件非常重要的事情，而且對於這些運營商來說也是非常昂貴的。因此，這一旅程將在整個華為更換過程中繼續進行。

In other parts of the world, it happened very quickly. India being a case in point, that sort of happened -- and it's got a little more to finish up, but happened over an 18-month to 2-year period. Europe, I think, is going to be a much longer tail than that.

在世界其他地方，它發生得非常快。印度就是一個很好的例子，這種情況發生了——還有一點要完成，但發生在 18 個月到 2 年的時間裡。我認為，歐洲的尾巴會比那長得多。

And our next question comes from Dave Kang from B. Riley.

我們的下一個問題來自 B. Riley 的 Dave Kang。

First, just a clarification is that did you reiterate or reconfirm next 3-year CAGR of 10% to 12%?

首先，澄清一下，您是否重申或再次確認下一個 3 年的複合年增長率為 10% 至 12%？

We haven't said anything about next year recently. We think it's going to be a great year. We haven't changed anything about our views for the coming years.

我們最近沒有談及明年的事情。我們認為這將是偉大的一年。我們對未來幾年的看法沒有任何改變。

We would typically operate -- update our long-term CAGR at the end of this fiscal year.

我們通常會在本財年末更新我們的長期復合年增長率。

Got it. And then regarding your backlog before in recent quarters, I believe you said most of your backlog was for immediate shipments. What is the current mix now?

知道了。然後關於你最近幾個季度之前的積壓，我相信你說過你的大部分積壓是為了立即發貨。現在的組合是什麼？

For immediate shipments day, is that what you asked?

對於立即發貨日，這是您要求的嗎？

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

Yes. Well, what we said is this, historically, we operated on kind of a just-in-time ordering pattern by our customers and the delivery to them with lead times of 4 to 6 to 8 weeks. That was the way the business works. The supply chain disruptions have changed people's views about the amount of inventory they want to hold. Lead times are probably not going to get back down as low as they were. I'd say that guardedly because I'm not sure. And customer behavior is going to revert closer to what it was, not necessarily all the way to where it was in terms of a just-in-time ordering pattern. So that's what's going on.

是的。好吧，我們所說的是，從歷史上看，我們以客戶的準時制訂購模式運作，並以 4 到 6 到 8 週的交貨時間向他們交貨。這就是企業運作的方式。供應鏈中斷改變了人們對他們想要持有的庫存量的看法。交貨時間可能不會像以前那樣回落。我會謹慎地說，因為我不確定。並且客戶行為將恢復到更接近於它的狀態，而不一定一直到它在即時訂購模式方面的狀態。這就是正在發生的事情。

We have a fair amount of orders in our backlog, which are for '24 deliveries. Now most of those are early '24 deliveries, but we have those today. And those are -- with longer, in most cases, than our backlog because customers still want to give us visibility to their demands outside of our lead time. So that's what's going on. And I think it will revert closer to the old model. It might not get back down to that just-in-time model that we used to operate on.

我們的積壓訂單中有相當數量的訂單，用於 24 天交貨。現在，其中大部分是 24 年初交付的，但我們今天就有了。在大多數情況下，這些比我們的積壓時間更長，因為客戶仍然希望在我們的交貨時間之外讓我們了解他們的需求。這就是正在發生的事情。而且我認為它會更接近於舊模型。它可能不會回到我們過去使用的準時制模式。

We've reached the end of our time. We appreciate everybody joining us this morning, and we look forward to seeing several of you on the road over the next few weeks. For those we don't see, have a great summer, and we'll talk to you again in a couple of months.

我們已經到了生命的盡頭。我們感謝今天早上加入我們的每一個人，我們期待在接下來的幾週內在路上見到你們中的一些人。對於那些我們沒有看到的人，祝你暑假愉快，我們將在幾個月後再次與你交談。

Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議和演講將結束。我們感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開線路。