Ciena Corp (CIEN) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ciena Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Year-end 2022 Results.

美好的一天，謝謝你的支持。歡迎查看 Ciena 財年第四季度和 2022 年底的業績。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Gregg Lampf, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

（操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議交給今天的演講者，投資者關係副總裁 Gregg Lampf。請繼續。

Thank you, Katherine. Good morning, and welcome to Ciena's 2022 Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Year-End Review.

謝謝你，凱瑟琳。早上好，歡迎來到 Ciena 的 2022 財年第四季度和年終回顧。

On the call today is Gary Smith, President and CEO; and Jim Moylan, CFO. Scott McFeely, our Senior Vice President of Global Products and Services, is also with us for Q&A.

今天接聽電話的是總裁兼首席執行官 Gary Smith；和首席財務官 Jim Moylan。我們的全球產品和服務高級副總裁 Scott McFeely 也與我們一起進行問答。

In addition to this call and the press release, we have posted to the Investors section of our website an accompanying investor presentation that reflects this discussion as well as certain highlighted items from the previous -- from the quarter and the fiscal year. Our comments today speak to our recent performance, our view on current market dynamics and drivers of our business as well as a discussion of our financial outlook.

除了本次電話會議和新聞稿外，我們還在我們網站的“投資者”部分發布了隨附的投資者介紹，其中反映了此次討論以及上一季度和本財年的某些重點項目。我們今天的評論談到了我們最近的表現、我們對當前市場動態和我們業務驅動因素的看法以及對我們財務前景的討論。

Today's discussion includes certain adjusted or non-GAAP measures of Ciena's results of operations. A detailed reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results is included in today's press release.

今天的討論包括 Ciena 經營業績的某些調整後或非 GAAP 措施。這些非 GAAP 措施與我們的 GAAP 結果的詳細對賬包含在今天的新聞稿中。

Before turning the call over to Gary, I'll remind you that during this call, we'll be making certain forward-looking statements. Such statements, including our quarterly and annual guidance and long-term financial outlook, discussion of market opportunities and strategy and commentary about impacts of supply chain constraints on our business and results, are based on current expectations, forecasts and assumptions regarding the company and its markets, which include certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements discussed today.

在將電話轉給加里之前，我會提醒您，在這次電話會議中，我們將做出某些前瞻性陳述。此類陳述，包括我們的季度和年度指導以及長期財務展望、市場機會和戰略的討論以及關於供應鏈限制對我們業務和結果的影響的評論，均基於當前對公司及其業務的預期、預測和假設市場，其中包括某些可能導致實際結果與今天討論的陳述存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。

Assumptions relating to our outlook, whether mentioned on this call or included in the investor presentation that we'll post shortly after, are an important part of such forward-looking statements, and we encourage you to consider them.

與我們的前景相關的假設，無論是在本次電話會議中提到，還是包含在我們不久後發布的投資者介紹中，都是此類前瞻性陳述的重要組成部分，我們鼓勵您考慮它們。

Our forward-looking statements should also be viewed in the context of the risk factors detailed in our most recent 10-Q filing and in our upcoming 10-K filing. Our 10-K is required to be filed with the SEC by December 28, and we expect to file by that date.

我們的前瞻性陳述還應結合我們最近的 10-Q 文件和即將發布的 10-K 文件中詳述的風險因素來看待。我們的 10-K 必須在 12 月 28 日之前提交給美國證券交易委員會，我們希望在該日期之前提交。

Ciena assumes no obligations to update the information discussed in this conference call, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. As always, we will allow for as much Q&A as possible today. So we ask that you limit yourselves to one question and one follow-up.

Ciena 不承擔更新本次電話會議中討論的信息的義務，無論是由於新信息、未來事件還是其他原因。與往常一樣，今天我們將盡可能多地進行問答。因此，我們要求您將自己限制在一個問題和一項跟進中。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Gary.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給加里。

Thanks, Gregg, and good morning, everyone. Today, we reported strong fiscal fourth quarter results, including higher-than-expected revenue of $971 million and adjusted gross margin of 45.2%. This performance reflects the benefit of some favorable supply chain dynamics that occurred in the second half of the quarter, including that we received more integrated circuits than expected from certain suppliers and that we were also able to procure more parts in the open market than originally projected. These developments enabled us to ship more product to customers in the quarter, especially modems, which also had a positive impact on both revenue and margin.

謝謝，格雷格，大家早上好。今天，我們公佈了強勁的第四財季業績，包括高於預期的 9.71 億美元收入和 45.2% 的調整後毛利率。這一業績反映了本季度後半段出現的一些有利的供應鏈動態帶來的好處，包括我們從某些供應商那裡收到的集成電路比預期的要多，而且我們在公開市場上採購的零件也比最初預計的要多.這些發展使我們能夠在本季度向客戶交付更多產品，尤其是調製解調器，這也對收入和利潤率產生了積極影響。

For the full fiscal year, we delivered revenue of $3.63 billion, essentially flat with fiscal 2021 due entirely to the challenging supply chain conditions that we encountered during the year. Despite the difficult supply environment in fiscal '22, we saw robust demand from customers across our segments, regions and applications, as evidenced by annual order growth of 26% and a backlog of greater than $4 billion as we exited the year.

在整個財政年度，我們實現了 36.3 億美元的收入，與 2021 財年基本持平，這完全是由於我們在這一年中遇到的具有挑戰性的供應鏈條件。儘管 22 財年的供應環境艱難，但我們看到了來自我們的細分市場、地區和應用程序的客戶的強勁需求，年度訂單增長 26% 和我們結束這一年時積壓的訂單超過 40 億美元就證明了這一點。

Our results across FY '22, including the strong finish in Q4, demonstrate the continued volatility and unpredictable nature of the current supply dynamics. With respect to supply, overall, we are seeing ongoing signs of gradual improvement. The majority of our suppliers are delivering to their current committed lead times, and volumes are slowly increasing. And we also expect continued improvements in these areas as we move through fiscal 2023.

我們在整個 22 財年的業績，包括第四季度的強勁表現，證明了當前供應動態的持續波動性和不可預測性。總體而言，在供應方面，我們看到了逐步改善的持續跡象。我們的大多數供應商都按照他們當前承諾的交貨時間交貨，並且數量正在緩慢增加。我們還預計，隨著我們進入 2023 財年，這些領域將繼續得到改善。

We are also starting to benefit from the various mitigation steps that we've taken over the last year or so. As a reminder, these include product engineering redesigns and qualification of alternative components designed to minimize the impact of supply chain challenges on our customers. At the same time, the unpredictable performance of specific vendors for a relatively small number of components, even if they are low cost, low value, can negatively and disproportionately impact our revenue and significantly shift our product mix, which is what happened in Q3 of last year.

我們也開始受益於我們在過去一年左右採取的各種緩解措施。提醒一下，這些包括產品工程重新設計和替代組件的鑑定，旨在最大限度地減少供應鏈挑戰對我們客戶的影響。與此同時，特定供應商對相對較少的組件的不可預測的性能，即使它們是低成本、低價值的，也會對我們的收入產生負面和不成比例的影響，並顯著改變我們的產品組合，這就是 2018 年第三季度發生的情況去年。

Conversely, our Q4 results, particularly on revenue and margin, illustrate how these same supply dynamics can have an unexpected and disproportionate impact in a favorable direction. So to be clear, the volatility can obviously manifest as both headwinds and tailwinds. But generally, we believe them to be moving in a positive direction.

相反，我們的第四季度業績，尤其是收入和利潤率方面的業績，說明了這些相同的供應動態如何對有利的方向產生意想不到的和不成比例的影響。所以需要明確的是，波動顯然可以表現為逆風和順風。但總的來說，我們相信他們正在朝著積極的方向前進。

With respect to demand, we remain very positive that the fundamental drivers, including 5G, cloud and automation are durable over the long term. Based on these drivers in network investment, we continue to see a strong demand environment in the coming quarters and the next several years.

在需求方面，我們仍然非常樂觀地認為，包括 5G、雲和自動化在內的基本驅動因素在長期內是持久的。基於網絡投資的這些驅動因素，我們將繼續看到未來幾個季度和未來幾年的強勁需求環境。

Importantly, we are confident that our leading technology as well as our strategy to expand our addressable market in key areas are closely aligned with these drivers and the areas of investment for our customers.

重要的是，我們相信我們的領先技術以及我們在關鍵領域擴大潛在市場的戰略與這些驅動因素和我們客戶的投資領域密切相關。

As we look to FY '23, specifically the combination of continued signs of gradual supply improvement and our significant backlog gives us confidence that we will deliver outsized year-on-year revenue growth and gain market share. Jim will expand upon this shortly with more specifics on our outlook and how we are thinking about our business over the longer term within these demand and supply conditions.

當我們展望 23 財年時，特別是供應逐漸改善的持續跡象和我們大量積壓的結合使我們有信心實現超額的同比收入增長並獲得市場份額。吉姆將在短期內詳細介紹我們的前景，以及我們如何在這些需求和供應條件下長期考慮我們的業務。

Before he does that, I want to share a few highlights from the fourth quarter and fiscal year. A particular note is the growth in our routing and switching portfolio, for which quarterly revenue was up nearly 40% year-over-year in Q4 as we benefited from the addition of the Vyatta Solutions and organic portfolio enhancements.

在他這樣做之前，我想分享第四季度和本財年的一些亮點。特別值得注意的是我們的路由和交換產品組合的增長，由於我們受益於 Vyatta 解決方案的增加和有機產品組合的增強，第四季度的季度收入同比增長近 40%。

In fact, during Q4, we reached a milestone of more than 200 Adaptive IP customers, fueled by momentum in coherent routing, metro aggregation, PON and high-speed business services. And we continue to invest in our next-gen metro and edge strategy, particularly in our routing and switching portfolio.

事實上，在第 4 季度，在相干路由、城域聚合、PON 和高速業務服務的推動下，我們達到了 200 多個自適應 IP 客戶的里程碑。我們繼續投資於我們的下一代城域和邊緣戰略，特別是我們的路由和交換產品組合。

As you saw, we recently closed the acquisition of Benu Networks, and announced that we are acquiring Tibit Communications, which we expect to close in Q1 '23. These acquisitions will enable us to build upon our existing strategic investments in fiber broadband access and pursue a larger set of opportunities in this market segment.

如您所見，我們最近完成了對 Benu Networks 的收購，並宣布我們正在收購 Tibit Communications，預計將在 23 年第一季度完成。這些收購將使我們能夠在現有的光纖寬帶接入戰略投資的基礎上進一步發展，並在這一細分市場中尋求更多機會。

Specifically, the addition of advanced subscriber management and next-generation PON technologies will advance our ability to address fast-growing applications, including residential broadband, enterprise business services and fixed wireless access. This also represents a significant addressable market expansion for Ciena, something we've been talking to you about for some time within our Routing and Switching segment and is expected to be a considerable investment area for many of our customers.

具體來說，高級用戶管理和下一代 PON 技術的加入將提升我們應對快速增長應用的能力，包括住宅寬帶、企業業務服務和固定無線接入。這也代表了 Ciena 的一個重要的可尋址市場擴張，我們已經在我們的路由和交換領域與您討論了一段時間，預計這將成為我們許多客戶的一個可觀的投資領域。

In optical, we added 15 new customers for WaveLogic 5e in Q4, bringing our total global customer count to more than 200 with more than 50,000 WaveLogic 5e modems shipped to date. In Blue Planet, we won several new logos during the year while expanding our presence at a number of Tier 1 service providers.

在光學方面，我們在第四季度為 WaveLogic 5e 增加了 15 個新客戶，使我們的全球客戶總數達到 200 多個，迄今為止已交付超過 50,000 個 WaveLogic 5e 調製解調器。在 Blue Planet，我們在這一年贏得了幾個新標誌，同時擴大了我們在許多一級服務提供商中的影響力。

Additionally, our strategic win at DISH has now gone live with both our inventory and our service order orchestration solutions. And our network transformation services grew 50% year-over-year. I think this really reflects the increased demand from customers to move from legacy to next-generation networks.

此外，我們在 DISH 的戰略勝利現在已經通過我們的庫存和服務訂單編排解決方案實現。我們的網絡轉型服務同比增長 50%。我認為這確實反映了客戶對從傳統網絡轉向下一代網絡的需求增加。

And lastly, with respect to diversification, our non-telco revenue was approximately 40% for the year. And within that, 4 of our top 10 customers were major web scalers. And like last year, we had more than $1 billion in orders from web-scale customers in FY '22, once again demonstrating continued strong demand from this key customer segment.

最後，在多元化方面，我們今年的非電信收入約為 40%。其中，我們的前 10 大客戶中有 4 家是主要的網絡縮放器。與去年一樣，我們在 22 財年從網絡規模客戶那裡獲得了超過 10 億美元的訂單，再次證明了這一關鍵客戶群的持續強勁需求。

With that, I'll now hand over to Jim to take us through the results in a little more detail and provide our outlook. Jim?

有了這個，我現在將交給吉姆，讓我們更詳細地了解結果並提供我們的展望。吉姆？

Thanks, Gary. Good morning, everyone. As Gary mentioned, we delivered a very strong Q4 performance. Revenue came in at $971 million, well above the midpoint of our guide. This revenue result speaks to the durability of demand and the clear need by our customers for more equipment faster.

謝謝，加里。大家，早安。正如加里所提到的，我們在第四季度的表現非常強勁。收入為 9.71 億美元，遠高於我們指南的中點。這一收入結果說明了需求的持久性以及我們的客戶對更快獲得更多設備的明確需求。

Importantly, it illustrates what can happen when we get more of the components that have been in the shorter supply and which have most severely gated our deliveries to customers. Additionally, it reflects some benefit of additional production capacity brought on with our investments, which helped us to deliver our largest shipments month in history in October.

重要的是，它說明了當我們獲得更多供應短缺且嚴重限制我們向客戶交付的組件時會發生什麼。此外，它反映了我們的投資帶來的額外產能的一些好處，這幫助我們在 10 月份交付了歷史上最大的出貨量。

Q4 adjusted gross margin was strong at 45.2%, reflecting a favorable product mix as well as lower-than-expected incremental supply and logistics costs in the quarter. Adjusted gross margin in the quarter benefited from the greater-than-expected supply of key components, allowing us to deliver more modems. Clearly, availability of components and the performance of our vendors play a disproportionate role in our quarterly mix of deliveries.

第 4 季度調整後毛利率強勁，達到 45.2%，反映出有利的產品組合以及低於預期的本季度增量供應和物流成本。本季度調整後的毛利率得益於關鍵組件的供應超出預期，使我們能夠交付更多調製解調器。顯然，組件的可用性和我們供應商的表現在我們的季度交付組合中發揮著不成比例的作用。

Q4 adjusted operating expense was as expected at $313 million. With respect to profitability measures, in Q4, we delivered adjusted operating margin of 13%, adjusted net income of $91 million and adjusted EPS of $0.61 per share.

第四季度調整後的運營費用如預期為 3.13 億美元。關於盈利能力指標，在第四季度，我們實現了 13% 的調整後營業利潤率、9100 萬美元的調整後淨收入和 0.61 美元的調整後每股收益。

In addition, in Q4, our adjusted EBITDA was $154 million. Cash used in operations was $14 million. We continue to build inventory of certain components in Q4 while we wait for delivery of those components that are the most constrained. We also experienced a back-end loaded quarter, which caused accounts receivable to increase.

此外，在第四季度，我們調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.54 億美元。運營中使用的現金為 1400 萬美元。我們在第四季度繼續建立某些組件的庫存，同時等待那些最受限制的組件的交付。我們還經歷了後端負載季度，導致應收賬款增加。

With respect to our performance for the full fiscal year, annual revenue was $3.63 billion. As Gary mentioned, we ended the year with $4.2 billion in backlog, slightly below where we ended in Q3, but still nearly double our backlog as we entered fiscal 2022. We've obviously seen periods of record order volumes and significant backlog growth in fiscal year '22.

就我們整個財政年度的業績而言，年收入為 36.3 億美元。正如 Gary 提到的那樣，我們今年年底的積壓訂單為 42 億美元，略低於第三季度末的水平，但在我們進入 2022 財年時仍是我們積壓訂單的近兩倍。我們顯然看到了創紀錄的訂單量和顯著的財政積壓增長時期22 年。

That said, as supply chain conditions gradually improve, we expect order growth relative to revenue and backlog to moderate over time even in a strong demand environment. Adjusted gross margin for the year was 43.6%, a good result and in line with expectations. And adjusted OpEx for the year totaled $1.17 billion.

也就是說，隨著供應鏈狀況逐漸改善，我們預計即使在強勁的需求環境下，相對於收入和積壓的訂單增長也會隨著時間的推移而放緩。全年經調整毛利率為 43.6%，業績良好，符合預期。全年調整後的運營支出總計 11.7 億美元。

Given our large order intake throughout the year, we paid higher sales commissions than we had planned. However, with lower-than-expected revenue and operating income, we will pay a much lower corporate incentive bonus than originally planned. If normalized for these 2 items, adjusted OpEx would have been just over $1.2 billion, which was what we expected and guided for the year.

鑑於我們全年的訂單量很大，我們支付的銷售佣金高於計劃。然而，由於收入和營業收入低於預期，我們將支付比原計劃低得多的企業激勵獎金。如果對這兩項進行標準化，調整後的運營支出將超過 12 億美元，這是我們今年的預期和指導。

Moving to profitability. Adjusted operating margin in fiscal year '22 was 11.2%, and adjusted EPS was $1.90. Free cash flow for fiscal '22 was negative $259 million. This reflects the increase in inventory caused by lack of availability of a few key components.

轉向盈利。 22 財年調整後營業利潤率為 11.2%，調整後每股收益為 1.90 美元。 22 財年的自由現金流為負 2.59 億美元。這反映了由於一些關鍵組件的可用性不足導致庫存增加。

Finally, our balance sheet remains strong as we ended the year with approximately $1.2 billion in cash and investments. Just as a reminder, we also met our goal of repurchasing $500 million in shares in the year and plan to repurchase shares in fiscal '23 in the range of $250 million.

最後，我們的資產負債表依然強勁，因為我們在年底擁有約 12 億美元的現金和投資。提醒一下，我們還實現了今年回購 5 億美元股票的目標，併計劃在 23 財年回購 2.5 億美元的股票。

Turning to guidance. In the last few years, our revenue has been relatively flat as a result of the unique market conditions that stemmed from a global pandemic, which led to the supply chain crisis. Looking forward, we see signs of continued gradual supply improvement, which, when combined with our significant backlog, sets us up well for outsized growth in fiscal '23.

轉向指導。在過去幾年中，由於全球大流行病導致的獨特市場條件導致供應鏈危機，我們的收入相對持平。展望未來，我們看到供應持續逐步改善的跡象，再加上我們的大量積壓，為我們在 23 財年實現超額增長做好了準備。

Accordingly, we expect to grow our revenue in the year in the range of 16% to 18%. To be clear, this outlook includes key assumptions that are particularly important in a still uncertain environment.

因此，我們預計今年的收入將增長 16% 至 18%。需要明確的是，這一前景包括在仍然不確定的環境中尤為重要的關鍵假設。

First, with respect to macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical dynamics, due to the size of our backlog, we believe our fiscal '23 outlook is somewhat less dependent on the macro environment than in a typical year. That said, to be clear, our guide assumes that the global economy does not significantly worsen and more importantly, that there are no material adverse effects on our business.

首先，關於宏觀經濟狀況和地緣政治動態，由於我們積壓的規模，我們認為我們的 23 財年前景對宏觀環境的依賴程度低於典型年份。也就是說，需要明確的是，我們的指南假設全球經濟不會顯著惡化，更重要的是，我們的業務不會受到重大不利影響。

Second, with respect to component availability and general supply conditions, as Gary mentioned, we continue to see and we expect volatility, but we have seen overall improvement. Our forecast assumes that supply chain dynamics do not worsen.

其次，關於組件可用性和一般供應條件，正如 Gary 提到的，我們繼續看到並且我們預計會出現波動，但我們已經看到整體改善。我們的預測假設供應鏈動態不會惡化。

With respect to gross margin for fiscal 2023, our outlook reflects the expectation that supply and logistics costs will ease somewhat but will remain elevated. And that as supply improves, we will take more revenue on the new wins we've secured over the last several years -- 2 years.

關於 2023 財年的毛利率，我們的展望反映了供應和物流成本將有所下降但仍將保持高位的預期。隨著供應的改善，我們將在過去幾年 - 2 年中獲得的新勝利中獲得更多收入。

Accordingly, we believe that our gross margin for the full year 2023 will be in the range of 42% to 44%. With operating expense we can intend to continue investing strategically in our business in order to expand our addressable market and to advance our position in key growth areas. Therefore, we expect adjusted operating expense to average $325 million per quarter in fiscal '23.

因此，我們認為 2023 年全年的毛利率將在 42% 至 44% 之間。通過運營費用，我們可以打算繼續對我們的業務進行戰略投資，以擴大我們的潛在市場並提升我們在關鍵增長領域的地位。因此，我們預計 23 財年調整後的運營費用平均每季度為 3.25 億美元。

I'll point out that we are using an as adjusted tax rate of 22% in our fiscal '23 outlook. The 1.8% rate increase from last year's 20.2% rate takes into consideration our best estimate of having increased taxable income and higher tax rate locations during the fiscal year.

我要指出的是，我們在 23 財年展望中使用的是調整後的 22% 稅率。與去年 20.2% 的稅率相比增加 1.8% 考慮到了我們對本財年應稅收入增加和稅率較高的地區的最佳估計。

In the more immediate term, for Q1 2023, we expect to deliver revenue in a range of $910 million to $990 million, adjusted gross margin in the low 40s range and adjusted operating expense between $320 million and $325 million. Looking beyond next year, we remain confident in the positive secular demand drivers, including continued growth in bandwidth demand, which over a long period of time has been unaffected by macroeconomic conditions.

從更近期的角度來看，我們預計 2023 年第一季度的收入將在 9.1 億美元至 9.9 億美元之間，調整後的毛利率在 40 多歲左右，調整後的運營費用在 3.2 億美元至 3.25 億美元之間。展望明年以後，我們對積極的長期需求驅動因素仍然充滿信心，包括帶寬需求的持續增長，這在很長一段時間內都沒有受到宏觀經濟狀況的影響。

We believe our customers will be compelled to prioritize network CapEx to address this demand over the coming quarters and years. And as we continue investing in our long-term strategy to expand our addressable market, we will be in a strong position to intersect those customer network investments.

我們相信，我們的客戶將被迫優先考慮網絡資本支出，以在未來幾個季度和幾年內滿足這一需求。隨著我們繼續投資於我們的長期戰略以擴大我們的目標市場，我們將在與這些客戶網絡投資相交方面處於有利地位。

All of that, in combination with more normalized supply chain conditions, positions us well to deliver strong revenue growth over the next several years. More specifically, we expect the industry to grow in approximately the mid-single digits percentages during this time period, and we intend you to gain footprint and take market share as we have over the last decade.

所有這一切，再加上更加規範的供應鏈條件，使我們能夠在未來幾年實現強勁的收入增長。更具體地說，我們預計該行業在此期間將以大約中等個位數的百分比增長，我們希望您像過去十年一樣擴大足跡並佔據市場份額。

That said, our revenue growth over the next 3 years will not be linear, particularly given our expectations for outsized revenue growth in fiscal '23 predominantly driven by improvement in supply. Our revenue growth expectations for fiscal '24 and fiscal '25 are based on an assumption of more normal business conditions, which are, by definition, more dependent upon the macro environment.

也就是說，我們未來 3 年的收入增長將不是線性的，特別是考慮到我們預計 23 財年的收入增長將主要由供應改善推動。我們對 24 財年和 25 財年的收入增長預期是基於更正常的商業條件假設，根據定義，這些條件更依賴於宏觀環境。

Nevertheless, we are confident in continued strong demand dynamics and our leading market position. For that reason, we currently expect to deliver a 3-year annual revenue growth rate in the 10% to 12% range throughout fiscal 2025. That does take into account the 16% to 18% next year. Furthermore, we expect over the next several years that adjusted gross margin will improve to the mid-40s range and that we will increase profitability.

儘管如此，我們對持續強勁的需求動態和我們的領先市場地位充滿信心。出於這個原因，我們目前預計整個 2025 財年的 3 年年收入增長率將在 10% 到 12% 之間。這確實考慮到了明年 16% 到 18% 的增長率。此外，我們預計未來幾年調整後的毛利率將提高至 40 多歲左右的水平，我們將提高盈利能力。

In closing, while '22 has been a challenging year for Ciena because of supply chain conditions, our market position has never been better, and we expect that it will continue to improve. Demand for bandwidth is growing at rates of 30-plus percent. Demand for capacity from customers is sturdy, and Ciena has the best technology and customer relationships in the industry.

最後，儘管由於供應鏈狀況，'22 對 Ciena 來說是充滿挑戰的一年，但我們的市場地位從未像現在這樣好，我們預計它會繼續改善。帶寬需求正以 30% 以上的速度增長。客戶對容量的需求強勁，而 Ciena 擁有業內最好的技術和客戶關係。

We believe that our supply chain will continue to improve as we move through '23, which will enable us to better service the strong demand from customers. And we believe that our financial results will reflect this.

我們相信，隨著 23 世紀的到來，我們的供應鏈將繼續改善，這將使我們能夠更好地服務於客戶的強勁需求。我們相信我們的財務業績將反映這一點。

With that, Katherine, we'll now take questions from the sell-side analysts.

有了這個，凱瑟琳，我們現在將接受賣方分析師的提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

We're also aware of a technical issue with the Q&A line. We're resending a link to the sell siders for you to be able to access that way.

我們還注意到問答熱線存在技術問題。我們正在重新發送一個鏈接給賣家，以便您能夠以這種方式訪問。

Our first question comes from Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Meta Marshall。

This is Karan Juvekar on from Morgan Stanley. Congratulations on the results. And I guess just first question being, as you've seen supply chain loosen up a bit in the second half of the quarter, have you seen any changes to maybe customer conversations, maybe with conversations with customers that have moved to other vendors or maybe just generally at a high level, any incremental hesitation around macro and maybe any purchasing patterns?

我是摩根士丹利的 Karan Juvekar。祝賀結果。我想第一個問題是，正如您看到供應鏈在本季度下半年有所放鬆，您是否看到客戶對話有任何變化，可能是與已轉移到其他供應商的客戶的對話，或者可能一般來說，在高水平上，圍繞宏觀和可能的任何購買模式是否有任何漸進的猶豫？

So why don't I take the second part of that? The answer to your question is no, we haven't. We continue to see, as we talked about in the earlier comments, very strong demand characteristics across the board, across geographies, across applications, across different customer segments. And that's evidenced from a demand point of view in the outsized order that we -- orders that we received in the year.

那我為什麼不參加第二部分呢？你的問題的答案是否定的，我們沒有。正如我們在之前的評論中所談到的，我們繼續看到，跨地區、跨應用程序、跨不同客戶群的需求特徵非常強勁。從需求的角度來看，我們今年收到的超大訂單證明了這一點。

When you think about it, we've got 26% order growth in the year. And that's a very strong indicator around demand. And a lot of our customers still want the equipment faster than we can get it to them for all the secular demand dynamics that we're aware of. So not seeing any change right now across the customer piece in terms of demand. Scott, do you want to comment on any of the supply chain stuff specifically?

想想看，我們今年的訂單增長了 26%。這是圍繞需求的一個非常有力的指標。對於我們所知道的所有長期需求動態，我們的許多客戶仍然希望設備比我們能夠更快地交付給他們。因此，就需求而言，目前在整個客戶領域看不到任何變化。斯科特，你想具體評論一下供應鏈的任何內容嗎？

In the supply chain stuff side that Gary mentioned it, we got more supply of components than we were expecting in the second half of the quarter. And that was across the board, but particularly important was those constrained components also we saw more supply. We also have more success in procuring those in the open broker market as well.

在加里提到的供應鏈方面，我們在本季度下半年獲得的零部件供應比我們預期的要多。這是全面的，但特別重要的是那些受限的組件，我們也看到了更多的供應。我們在公開經紀人市場上也取得了更大的成功。

And given the investments that we've talked about in the past around building up a bigger manufacturing capacity so we can turn those components into finished goods faster, that came into play significantly in our month of October. And I think Jim mentioned, our biggest shipment month ever.

考慮到我們過去談到的圍繞建立更大製造能力的投資，以便我們可以更快地將這些組件轉化為成品，這在我們 10 月份發揮了重要作用。我想吉姆提到過，我們有史以來最大的出貨月。

Got it. Okay. That's very helpful. And then just a quick follow-up on maybe just quantifying or just any idea on how much of a benefit in the quarter the price increases was? And maybe how should we expect that to trend sequentially to Q1? Anything we should expect, an uptick sequentially? Or how we should think about that?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後只是快速跟進可能只是量化或只是關於價格上漲在本季度有多少好處的任何想法？也許我們應該如何預期它會連續趨勢到第一季度？我們應該期待什麼，連續上漲？或者我們應該如何考慮？

Still not seeing a ton of effect of that price increase in Q4. We did not see it. As we look into our backlog, it is there. It's fully encompassed in our guide. And without giving a number, I'll just say that it's in the single-digit percentages ranges.

仍然沒有看到第四季度價格上漲的大量影響。我們沒有看到。當我們查看我們的積壓工作時，它就在那裡。它完全包含在我們的指南中。在不給出數字的情況下，我只想說它在個位數的百分比範圍內。

Our next question comes from Paul Silverstein with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Paul Silverstein 和 Cowen。

Gary, Jim, I did hear your responses to the previous question during the call, but I'm still going to ask you 2 related questions. One, one of your competitors have made comments about competitive gains. They clearly were referring to you, and I trust you listened to the Infinera call about competitive gains due to inability -- your inability to deliver because of the supply constraints. The question obviously being to what extent that has been an issue. But from your comments, it doesn't sound like it's a big issue.

加里、吉姆，我在通話中確實聽到了你們對上一個問題的回答，但我仍然會問你們兩個相關問題。第一，您的一位競爭對手對競爭收益發表了評論。他們顯然指的是你，我相信你聽過 Infinera 關於因無能而獲得競爭優勢的電話——你因供應限製而無法交付。問題顯然是這在多大程度上是個問題。但是從您的評論來看，這聽起來不是什麼大問題。

The other related question, again, from your comments, it sounds like not an issue, but given [Huawei], Corning, CommScope's commentary, a lot of which seem to be specific to AT&T, but perhaps other Tier 1s as well, it doesn't sound like you're seeing weakness, but I want to ask you the question.

另一個相關問題，再一次，從你的評論來看，這聽起來不是問題，但考慮到[華為]、康寧、康普的評論，其中很多似乎是針對 AT&T 的，但也許其他 1 級供應商也是如此，它不是聽起來你好像看到了弱點，但我想問你這個問題。

Look, let me take the first part of that, Paul. Listen, there's been a lot of volatility with sort of whipsawing in supply and demand at any one moment in time and any given account. If we're sharing with others, then they're obviously going to try and get supply from who they can.

保羅，讓我來談談第一部分。聽著，在任何一個時刻和任何給定的賬戶中，供求關係都存在很大的波動。如果我們與他人分享，那麼他們顯然會嘗試從力所能及的人那裡獲得供應。

I would say, overall, and we are also taking new accounts as well. Overall, I mean, I think the order demand and the performance in Q4 kind of speaks for itself. And we expect very strong share gains, which are really built into our backlog and our guidance for the year. So our share gain is in our orders, and customers have voted. And they continue to migrate towards the best technology at scale, which is what Ciena has. Take part of that question, do you want to?

我想說，總的來說，我們也在接受新客戶。總的來說，我的意思是，我認為第四季度的訂單需求和表現不言而喻。我們預計會有非常強勁的份額增長，這確實融入了我們今年的積壓工作和指導方針。所以我們的份額收益在我們的訂單中，客戶已經投票。他們繼續大規模遷移到最好的技術，這就是 Ciena 所擁有的。參與這個問題，你想嗎？

Our outlook for all of our major customers is good, and our order volume is good. We're not seeing any sign of weakness in AT&T or any of our major customers.

我們所有主要客戶的前景都很好，我們的訂單量也很好。我們沒有看到 AT&T 或我們的任何主要客戶有任何疲軟跡象。

All right. And Gary, just to be clear, going back to the share gain commentary, if you have lost in certain situations share because of inability to deliver, you're telling us that's not among Tier 1s or it's not something you think is...

好的。加里，要明確一點，回到份額收益評論，如果你在某些情況下因為無法交付而失去了份額，你是在告訴我們這不在第 1 層中，或者你認為這不是......

We've not lost any major customers whatsoever during this. And if there are particular, one moment in time someone shipped more than we have into that, we think that is transitory given the demand characteristics that we're seeing and engagement with these customers.

在此期間，我們沒有失去任何主要客戶。而且，如果有某個特定的時刻有人出貨量超過我們的出貨量，我們認為考慮到我們所看到的需求特徵以及與這些客戶的互動，這是暫時的。

Just to be clear though, Paul, we did see a relatively small number of cancellations in the quarter, probably the same dynamics that Gary is talking about. But that number has been overshadowed by the strong demand that we see overall. And whatever share we might have lost in any account, I'm confident that we will get it back over the coming quarters and years.

不過，保羅，我們確實看到本季度的取消數量相對較少，這可能與加里所說的相同。但這一數字已被我們看到的整體強勁需求所掩蓋。無論我們在任何賬戶中可能損失的份額是多少，我相信我們將在未來幾個季度和幾年內重新獲得它。

All right. And for my follow-up, there's obviously been a lot of investor concern about web scale, the health of web scale, in particular. From the commentary of the various major web-scale players, it certainly suggest they're not coming back or (inaudible). They set a strategic -- what are you guys seeing from that segment, obviously, not just here now, but looking downstream?

好的。對於我的後續行動，顯然有很多投資者擔心網絡規模，尤其是網絡規模的健康狀況。從各種主要網絡規模玩家的評論來看，這肯定表明他們不會回來或（聽不清）。他們制定了一個戰略——你們從那個細分市場看到了什麼，顯然，不僅僅是現在，而是向下游看？

So we had a very strong performance, both in terms of revenue and in terms of order intake. It was well over $1 billion. We're continuing as we work with them in FY '23, we expect to shift revenue significantly more to GCN than we did last year.

因此，無論是在收入方面還是在訂單接收方面，我們都有非常強勁的表現。它遠遠超過 10 億美元。我們將在 23 財年繼續與他們合作，我們預計將比去年更多地將收入轉移到 GCN。

And that's a combination of orders that we've got in the backlog and other orders that we're about to get. So it varies between the various players there. But overall, we see pretty strong demand as they continue to focus on building out their networks.

這是我們在積壓訂單中獲得的訂單和我們即將獲得的其他訂單的組合。所以它在不同的玩家之間有所不同。但總的來說，隨著他們繼續專注於建立自己的網絡，我們看到了相當強勁的需求。

I also say that we have over the past few years developed a much deeper and more strategic relationship with those web-scale customers, who are driving so much of what's going on in our industry. And so we're very excited by the fact we're engaged with them by much more than just plain data center conditions. And hopefully, we'll be able to tell you about some of that stuff as we move through time.

我還要說的是，在過去的幾年裡，我們與那些網絡規模的客戶建立了更深入、更具戰略意義的關係，他們正在推動我們行業的發展。因此，我們對與他們的合作不僅僅是簡單的數據中心條件感到非常興奮。希望隨著時間的流逝，我們能夠告訴您其中的一些內容。

Guys, can I ask for a clarification on one thing? For those of us who remember your acquisition of Catena back in 2004, which was as identical to your acquisition of Tibit as 2 deals could be. And correct me if I'm wrong, but there is nothing left of Catena employees, revenue, nothing.

伙計們，我可以要求澄清一件事嗎？對於我們這些記得您在 2004 年收購 Catena 的人來說，這與您收購 Tibit 一樣，可能是兩筆交易。如果我錯了，請糾正我，但 Catena 的員工、收入什麼都沒有了，什麼都沒有了。

Now I recognize that was a copper DSL-based solution. The market is incredibly different. This is optical. Maybe that's the answer. That's just a very different environment, and you're a very different company than you were 15-plus years ago. But any lessons learned from that field?

現在我認識到那是一個基於銅 DSL 的解決方案。市場非常不同。這是光學的。也許這就是答案。那隻是一個非常不同的環境，你是一家與 15 多年前截然不同的公司。但是從那個領域學到了什麼經驗教訓？

Well, I think you answered the question on that, Paul. I think you're absolutely right. We're a much different company. We've got much greater scale. And I think the complementary nature within the switching and routing technology that we have is -- the context of it is very different because we can wrap all that stuff around.

好吧，我想你已經回答了這個問題，保羅。我認為你是完全正確的。我們是一家截然不同的公司。我們的規模要大得多。而且我認為我們擁有的交換和路由技術的互補性是——它的背景非常不同，因為我們可以將所有這些東西包裹起來。

And the customer relationships that we have. We're now the largest player by quite a large way in the space that we're in. And those relationships have been developed and matured. And we think now that with bringing on Benu and Tibit, it really provides an excellent complement to the portfolio that we've already got.

以及我們擁有的客戶關係。在我們所處的領域中，我們現在是最大的參與者，在很大程度上是最大的參與者。而且這些關係已經發展和成熟。我們現在認為，通過引入 Benu 和 Tibit，它確實為我們已經擁有的產品組合提供了極好的補充。

And to be clear, Paul, it's approaching 20 years, so...

明確一點，保羅，快 20 年了，所以……

Next question comes from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

Great. I had a couple, and maybe if I can start with the gross margin outlook here. Jim, the gross margin outlook that you're providing, I don't know if you can walk us through a bit more of the puts and takes because it does sound like with the revenue -- outsized revenue growth you're expecting, you should have a bit more leverage to the gross margin, particularly with most of the sort of new product shipping at that time.

偉大的。我有幾個，也許我可以從這裡的毛利率前景開始。吉姆，你提供的毛利率前景，我不知道你是否可以讓我們多了解一下看跌期權和看跌期權，因為這聽起來確實與收入有關——你期望的超額收入增長，你應該對毛利率有更大的影響力，尤其是在當時大多數新產品出貨的情況下。

But maybe help me understand sort of any pressures, and also sounds like your sort of pressures from a supply logistics perspective are going down. So we would have expected a higher number. Maybe walk me through the puts and takes, and I have a follow-up.

但也許可以幫助我理解任何壓力，而且從供應物流的角度來看，聽起來你的壓力正在下降。所以我們本來期望更高的數字。也許帶我看一下推桿和推桿，然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes. The big driver of our gross margin is mix of products, and we do have sort of a continuum of margins. Typically, the early parts of projects we're laying down with line systems or we do that at lower gross margin. When we fill those line systems with capacity, we're putting in cards or modems, which are higher margins. That's just the way the business works. It helps our customers get through the early less than fully loaded conditions in their network. So that's the way it works.

是的。我們毛利率的主要驅動力是產品組合，我們確實有連續的利潤率。通常，我們在項目的早期部分使用生產線系統，或者我們以較低的毛利率進行。當我們用容量填充這些線路系統時，我們正在放入卡或調製解調器，這是更高的利潤。這就是企業運作的方式。它幫助我們的客戶度過他們網絡中早期未滿載的情況。這就是它的工作方式。

This year or in 2023, our expectation is that our mix will shift pretty significantly toward line systems. That's why we made the comment that we're talking about starting to ship on some of our new wins that we've had over the past year. So that's what's going on in our gross margin, and we'll see how it comes out, but that's our expectation.

今年或 2023 年，我們的預期是我們的產品組合將顯著轉向線路系統。這就是為什麼我們發表評論說我們正在談論開始交付我們在過去一年中獲得的一些新勝利。所以這就是我們毛利率的情況，我們會看到結果如何，但這是我們的預期。

We do think that the exception costs will ease in terms of the percentage margin effects. But they're still going to be there, and that's going to impact gross margin. What we've said is that, that probably cost us 400 basis points or something like that last year. And it's going to cost us something like that, although maybe a little less in '23.

我們確實認為，就利潤率影響百分比而言，例外成本會有所緩解。但它們仍將存在，這將影響毛利率。我們所說的是，去年這可能使我們損失了 400 個基點或類似的價格。這將使我們付出類似的代價，儘管在 23 年可能會少一些。

And finally, I'll make the point that we are totally outsourced in terms of our manufacturer. And so our cost per unit is mostly variable. We don't have a lot of fixed cost in our gross margin. We do have some, and that helps when we get our volumes. But the biggest part of our cost structure is variable and varies per volume.

最後，我要指出的是，就我們的製造商而言，我們是完全外包的。因此，我們的單位成本主要是可變的。我們的毛利率中沒有太多固定成本。我們確實有一些，這有助於我們獲得數量。但我們成本結構的最大部分是可變的，並且因體積而異。

And for my follow-up, if I can sort of ask you about what's sort of embedded in terms of supply improvement in your fiscal '23 revenue guide? Because when we look at sort of -- even the average of 3Q and 4Q, you're above a $900 million run rate, and you're expecting that to go north of $1 billion.

對於我的後續行動，我是否可以問你關於你的 23 財年收入指南中供應改善方面的嵌入內容？因為當我們看一些——甚至是第三季度和第四季度的平均值時，你的運行率超過 9 億美元，而且你預計它會超過 10 億美元。

Is that generally as you talked about more predictability from your suppliers, and the upside there could be being able to buy more from the open market? I'm just trying to understand what's embedded in the guide for supply? And what sort of downside or upside to that number can come from?

一般而言，當您談到供應商的可預測性更高時，是否可以從公開市場購買更多商品？我只是想了解供應指南中包含的內容？該數字可能帶來什麼樣的不利或有利影響？

Yes, Samik. So first of all, just starting with what we're seeing in the environment today and a little bit in the rearview mirror. Things are getting better gradually. People are delivering more reliably to their commitments, and they are delivering more components to us period-over-period. You saw that in our Q4 results, and you're seeing that in our Q1 guide.

是的，薩米克。所以首先，從我們今天在環境中看到的和後視鏡中的一點點開始。事情正在逐漸好轉。人們正在更可靠地兌現他們的承諾，並且他們在一段時間內向我們交付了更多的組件。您在我們的第四季度結果中看到了這一點，並且在我們的第一季度指南中看到了這一點。

Looking forward, in terms of their commitments to us, they are committing more components to us going forward as well, and that's factored into our guide. In addition to that, we've talked in the past about a bunch of mitigation activities that we have control of, redesigning products to open up the aperture in terms of alternative design sources, building up a manufacturing capacity such that we can turn finished components and finished goods faster for our customers.

展望未來，就他們對我們的承諾而言，他們也將向我們承諾更多的組成部分，這已納入我們的指南。除此之外，我們過去曾討論過我們可以控制的一系列緩解活動，重新設計產品以打開替代設計來源方面的差距，建立製造能力以便我們可以生產成品組件和成品更快地為我們的客戶。

All those things will benefit us in '23. And we've taken that into account as well as the learnings of the variability that we've seen to try to give you a balanced view of where we think we're going to land from a supply and therefore, a revenue perspective in '23.

所有這些都將使我們在 23 年受益。我們已經考慮了這一點以及我們所看到的可變性的學習，試圖讓你平衡地看待我們認為我們將從供應中降落的地方，因此，從收入的角度來看' 23.

Specifically, we assume that supply chain dynamics do not worsen. Specifically, we believe that component suppliers will largely deliver on their current supply commitments. And we do not expect to encounter any substantial new decommits that we cannot mitigate, given all the work we've done in our R&D group.

具體來說，我們假設供應鏈動態不會惡化。具體而言，我們認為零部件供應商將在很大程度上兌現其當前的供應承諾。考慮到我們在研發團隊中所做的所有工作，我們預計不會遇到任何我們無法緩解的實質性新退役。

Our next question comes from Alex Henderson with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Alex Henderson。

First question is on the mix assumptions for '23. Can you talk a little bit about the -- you've talked about $4.2 billion in backlog, but underneath the surface of that is also your service business, which doesn't show up in backlog but is related to additional shipments. So can you talk about the growth assumed in service versus product in the guide?

第一個問題是關於 23 年的混合假設。你能談談——你已經談到了 42 億美元的積壓訂單，但在這背後也是你的服務業務，它沒有出現在積壓訂單中，但與額外的出貨量有關。那麼，您能否談談指南中服務與產品的假設增長？

Well, services are in our backlog, Alex, just to be clear. When we get orders, we get orders for the product and related services. So it is in our backlog. The $4.2 billion includes a meaningful amount of services.

好吧，亞歷克斯，服務在我們的積壓中，只是為了清楚。當我們得到訂單時，我們得到的是產品和相關服務的訂單。所以它在我們的積壓工作中。 42 億美元包括數量可觀的服務。

I believe if you look at the various pieces of our services business, which we have maintenance, we have deployment, and then we have advanced services, we expect to see strong growth, stronger than average on the advanced services. We do probably -- we'll probably see higher-than-average demand on implementation because we did a lot of motives in the past year, and we expect that we'll have more line systems, which comes in many cases, with implementation. So those are the parts of the services portfolio that we think will grow faster than average. The maintenance, we think will grow, but probably in line with our product.

我相信如果你看看我們服務業務的各個部分，我們有維護，我們有部署，然後我們有高級服務，我們預計會看到強勁的增長，高於高級服務的平均水平。我們可能會 - 我們可能會看到對實施的需求高於平均水平，因為我們在過去一年做了很多動機，我們預計我們會有更多的線路系統，在許多情況下，實施.因此，我們認為這些服務組合的增長速度將快於平均水平。我們認為維護會增長，但可能與我們的產品一致。

So would your services then be a double-digit growth rate or a single-digit growth rate? I'm just trying to gauge the mix for the year.

那麼您的服務會是兩位數的增長率還是個位數的增長率？我只是想衡量今年的組合。

I don't think overall, we would be double digit -- I'm sorry, yes, we'll probably be double digits. Yes.

我不認為總體而言，我們會是兩位數——對不起，是的，我們可能會是兩位數。是的。

Right around 10% is probably the right answer. The second question I have for you is relative to the backlog. $4.2 billion in backlog is an enormous number. If I take 17% growth, that's $617 million off of your '22 base.

大約 10% 可能是正確的答案。我要問你的第二個問題是關於積壓的。 42 億美元的積壓訂單是一個巨大的數字。如果我以 17% 的增長率計算，那麼你的 22 歲基數就減少了 6.17 億美元。

So how much do you think the backlog will work down? And if the backlog is still, say, I don't know, $3 billion next year at the end of the year, doesn't that imply continued outsized backlog going into '24 and '25 even?

那麼您認為積壓工作會減少多少？如果明年年底的積壓仍然是 30 億美元，我不知道，這是否意味著甚至在 24 年和 25 年仍有大量積壓？

Very hard to predict where our backlog is going to be next year. It's going to be good, though. I can certainly expect that to be the case. Our backlog at the end of this year will depend upon what customer behavior is like, how our lead times change and of course, our deliveries during the year.

很難預測我們明年的積壓情況。不過，這會很好。我當然可以預期情況會如此。我們今年年底的積壓將取決於客戶的行為，我們的交貨時間如何變化，當然還有我們在這一年的交付量。

So it's just hard to predict that specific number on backlog, but it's going to be good. Now we said we're going to grow 10% to 12% average over the next 3 years, which implies higher than our previously stated growth for the long term in fiscal '24 and '25, not a lot higher but somewhat higher.

所以很難預測積壓的具體數字，但這會很好。現在我們說我們將在未來 3 年平均增長 10% 到 12%，這意味著比我們之前所說的 24 財年和 25 財年的長期增長要高，不是高很多，而是高一些。

Our next question comes from George Notter with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 George Notter。

Great to see the improvement in supply chain for you here. I was curious about what the expectations are for the Tibit and Benu acquisitions. I guess I'm wondering if they're significant piece of your revenue expectations for January and then also for the full year. And then also curious about what kind of cost structure comes with those acquisitions?

很高興在這裡看到您的供應鏈得到改善。我很好奇人們對收購 Tibit 和 Benu 的期望是什麼。我想我想知道它們是否是您對 1 月份乃至全年的收入預期的重要組成部分。然後還想知道這些收購會帶來什麼樣的成本結構？

Yes. We don't expect to close on Tibit until sort of towards the end of this quarter. And Benu is not large in terms of revenue. So really nothing significant in Q1. As we move through the year, we'll see some from both of those, but it's less than a couple of percentage points of our revenue.

是的。我們預計在本季度末之前不會關閉 Tibit。而貝努在收入方面並不大。所以在第一季度真的沒有什麼重要的。隨著這一年的推移，我們會從這兩個方面看到一些，但它不到我們收入的幾個百分點。

However, what it will do, the combination of those 2 acquisitions will help us as we attempt to build out our PON solutions and our position in that PON market. So we are very excited by it. And as far as the OpEx, it's in the sort of $20 million to $30 million of OpEx next year.

然而，無論它會做什麼，這兩項收購的結合將幫助我們嘗試建立我們的 PON 解決方案和我們在該 PON 市場中的地位。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。就運營支出而言，明年的運營支出約為 2000 萬至 3000 萬美元。

Got it. For the full year? Or is that -- that's not per quarter, I assume.

知道了。全年？或者是——我認為這不是每季度一次。

Yes. Full year.

是的。整年。

Okay. Got it. Great. That makes sense. And then do you guys have a purchase commitment number out of curiosity for the end of the year?

好的。知道了。偉大的。那講得通。那麼出於好奇，你們是否有年底的購買承諾編號？

We'll get you that. I don't have that right now, but I'll get it to you, George.

我們會給你的。我現在沒有，但我會拿給你的，喬治。

Our next question comes from Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Simon Leopold 和 Raymond James。

Just maybe first, a quick clarification on some of the metrics here. Gary, you said that backlog remained over $4 billion. I think last quarter, you talked about $4.4 billion. And I assume that certainly part of the whole sort of normalization process, we've got to begin to be working down backlog, so understandable.

也許首先，快速澄清一下這裡的一些指標。加里，你說積壓的訂單仍然超過 40 億美元。我想上個季度，你談到了 44 億美元。我認為，作為整個規範化流程的一部分，我們必須開始處理積壓工作，這是可以理解的。

But I want to verify that backlog did come down by roughly $300 million to $400 million. And I assume orders this quarter were down year-over-year. Is that a metric you're able to share?

但我想確認積壓確實減少了大約 3 億至 4 億美元。我假設本季度的訂單同比下降。這是您可以分享的指標嗎？

Yes. Yes, it's down about $200 million. So you're right, went from about $4.4 billion to about $4.2 billion. You're right, I would -- as Jim was saying, this should normalize over time. We're not going to continue to run with this kind of backlog, given the size of business we are and the growth that we're seeing even with I think we're going to have -- to the previous question, longer lead times for a while than we've all seen traditionally. So I expect us to have a longer backlog.

是的。是的，它減少了大約 2 億美元。所以你是對的，從大約 44 億美元增加到大約 42 億美元。你是對的，我會——正如吉姆所說，隨著時間的推移，這應該會正常化。考慮到我們的業務規模和我們看到的增長，我們不會繼續處理這種積壓的情況，即使我認為我們將擁有 - 對於上一個問題，更長的交貨時間有一段時間比我們傳統上看到的要多。所以我希望我們有更長的積壓。

I'll give you another interesting sort of statistic so far in Q1. We're off to a very strong start on orders in Q1. And in fact, despite the fact that we've upped our guidance in Q1, sort of midpoint of the range, about sort of [9 50], we still expect to build backlog in Q1. We're seeing very strong order flows already in the current quarter that we're in.

到目前為止，我將在第一季度為您提供另一種有趣的統計數據。我們在第一季度的訂單開局非常強勁。事實上，儘管我們在第一季度提高了我們的指導，範圍的中點，大約 [9 50]，我們仍然希望在第一季度建立積壓。在我們所在的當前季度，我們已經看到非常強勁的訂單流。

And then in terms of my more substantive question, I wanted to see if you could elaborate on your thoughts on India as a market. I recall, I think it was 2018. It was, I think, just over 9% of revenue and slowed down subsequently. It seems very evident that India has changed for the mobile infrastructure suppliers.

然後就我的更具實質性的問題而言，我想看看你是否可以詳細說明你對印度市場的看法。我記得，我認為那是 2018 年。我認為，它剛剛超過收入的 9%，隨後放緩。很明顯，印度已經改變了移動基礎設施供應商。

I know you've got some operations there. If you could elaborate what you expect over the next 1 to 2 years from that region.

我知道你在那裡做了一些手術。如果你能詳細說明你對該地區未來 1 到 2 年的期望。

Yes. India has been a big market for us. It's gone through some cycles, for sure. And I think -- I guess what's behind your question as well is it's now with the whole sort of 5G commitments that everybody has made -- going through a very bullish cycle for the next couple of years.

是的。印度一直是我們的大市場。當然，它經歷了一些週期。而且我認為 - 我想你的問題背後的原因也是現在每個人都做出了所有 5G 承諾 - 未來幾年將經歷一個非常看漲的周期。

And we have #1 market share in India, and we're very well positioned to take advantage of that growth. You're beginning to see that show up in the numbers. India, I think, off a fairly low number relative to where it's been, we're up about 30% year-on-year and a quarter change. And year-on-year in total is about 10% to 12% growth. So you're beginning to see that come back. I would expect that to be an outsized growth driver for Ciena for the next 1 to 3 years, absolutely.

我們在印度擁有排名第一的市場份額，我們完全有能力利用這一增長優勢。您開始在數字中看到這一點。印度，我認為，相對於過去的數字相當低，我們同比增長了約 30% 和四分之一的變化。並且同比總體增長約10%至12%。所以你開始看到它回來了。我預計這絕對會成為未來 1 到 3 年 Ciena 的巨大增長動力。

And does it have a negative impact on your margin? Because the RAN vendors all talk about great revenue, but then dilutive to gross margin, neutral to operating margin. You're in a different business. I just want to make sure folks understand what it means to you from a profitability perspective as well.

它對您的保證金有負面影響嗎？因為 RAN 供應商都在談論巨大的收入，但隨後會稀釋毛利率，對營業利潤率保持中立。你在不同的行業。我只是想確保人們也從盈利能力的角度理解這對您意味著什麼。

Generally speaking, the way they do their project builds, yes, they put line systems out, which is generally lower margin. And we'll see a little bit of that, but they tend to build out quite quickly in terms of capacity.

一般來說，他們進行項目構建的方式，是的，他們推出了線路系統，這通常利潤率較低。我們會看到一些，但它們往往會在容量方面迅速建立起來。

So generally speaking, it's not dilutive to our overall margins. It may sort of ebb and flow quarter-to-quarter whatever. But generally speaking, I mean, it's consistent with our overall margins there.

所以一般來說，它不會稀釋我們的整體利潤率。它可能會按季度起伏不定。但總的來說，我的意思是，這與我們在那裡的整體利潤率是一致的。

While we're waiting for the next question, I got the answer to George's question about purchasing commitments, it's $2.6 billion.

在我們等待下一個問題時，我得到了喬治關於採購承諾的問題的答案，即 26 億美元。

Our next question comes from Amit Daryanani with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Amit Daryanani。

Congrats on (inaudible). Maybe (inaudible) start off with as you think about fiscal '23 guidance, which is fairly robust, can you just talk about how do you think growth stacks up across the different verticals? And do you see as fast to going versus maybe a little bit slower, what's that 16% to 18% top line growth?

恭喜（聽不清）。也許（聽不清）從你考慮相當穩健的 23 財年指導開始，你能談談你認為不同垂直領域的增長如何疊加嗎？你認為進展速度快還是慢一點，16% 到 18% 的收入增長是多少？

I would expect -- I mean, next year, FY '23, our balanced view is it's really all about supply and not specifically demand. So with that as a caveat, I'd say pretty strong demand across the board.

我希望——我的意思是，明年，即 23 財年，我們的平衡觀點是，這實際上完全與供應有關，而不是具體的需求。因此，作為一個警告，我會說全面的需求非常強勁。

I think GCNs, I would highlight, has been very strong in terms of our revenue guide for the year. So I expect very strong growth from the overall web scalers.

我認為 GCN，我要強調的是，就我們今年的收入指南而言，它一直非常強勁。因此，我預計整個網絡縮放器會出現非常強勁的增長。

I think certain geographies, we just talked about one, India, I expect to be strong. I expect to see strong growth in the cable space in North America.

我認為某些地區，我們剛剛談到了一個地區，印度，我希望它會很強大。我希望看到北美有線電視領域的強勁增長。

Switching to routing, I would also highlight relative to -- we saw about 40% growth this year. Some of that was nonorganic. But we're seeing a lot of new wins in that space, as we talked about. So I think the -- there's various different applications and geographies that we think are going to be hot for the next year or so. Those are the ones that would come top of mind.

轉向路由，我還要強調相對於 - 我們今年看到了大約 40% 的增長。其中一些是非有機的。但正如我們所說，我們在那個領域看到了很多新的勝利。所以我認為 - 我們認為各種不同的應用程序和地理位置在明年左右會很熱門。這些是最重要的。

And overall, we'll just again point out that demand for bandwidth globally continues to grow at outsized rates, 30-plus percent. That has been -- that growth rate has been really unaffected by whatever happens in the macroeconomic environment.

總體而言，我們將再次指出，全球帶寬需求繼續以 30% 以上的驚人速度增長。那就是 - 增長率實際上不受宏觀經濟環境中發生的任何事情的影響。

That's what we've seen for a long, long time. So our outlook for the year assumes based on our past experience that any effects in our business with respect to customers' CapEx or their ability to take their products from us are immaterial.

這是我們很久很久以來所看到的。因此，我們今年的展望假設根據我們過去的經驗，我們的業務對客戶的資本支出或他們從我們這裡獲取產品的能力的任何影響都是無關緊要的。

And that's really helpful. And then just a follow-up. How should we think about the cash flow generation into fiscal '23? And sort of, I guess, to some degree, do you think inventory levels have peaked and this has to trend lower? Just any parameters on how free cash flow would stack up in '23, would really helpful to understand that. And maybe explain that? Do you see a capital allocation evolving for that free cash flow hopefully improve next year?

這真的很有幫助。然後只是跟進。我們應該如何考慮 23 財年的現金流產生？我想，在某種程度上，您是否認為庫存水平已經達到頂峰並且必須呈下降趨勢？關於 23 年自由現金流如何累積的任何參數，都將真正有助於理解這一點。也許解釋一下？您是否看到為自由現金流而演變的資本配置有望在明年有所改善？

Yes. We're not going to see an enormous amount of free cash flow in '23 partly because we're going to spend a couple of hundred million or so on acquisition of Tibit. Generally speaking, too, we don't expect that our inventory level is going to decline sharply this year. We could be wrong. I hope we're wrong. That would mean we ship more than we expect to ship now.

是的。我們不會在 23 年看到大量的自由現金流，部分原因是我們將花費幾億美元左右收購 Tibit。一般來說，我們也不認為今年我們的庫存水平會大幅下降。我們可能錯了。我希望我們錯了。這意味著我們現在出貨量比我們預期的要多。

But we expect our inventory position to come down, just not as far as it will in subsequent years. So without giving a number today, I can just say that we're not going to be in the free cash flow generation mode that we have been in past years. We'll have free cash flow, of course, but it's just not going to be as big as it's been.

但我們預計我們的庫存狀況會下降，只是不會像隨後幾年那樣下降。所以今天沒有給出數字，我只能說我們不會像過去幾年那樣處於自由現金流產生模式。當然，我們會有自由現金流，但不會像以前那麼大。

Our next question comes from Jim Suva with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的吉姆蘇瓦。

Given the backlog and your strong guidance for fiscal '23, can you comment a little bit about seasonality? I would assume that seasonality, I mean, with COVID, it's been a long time since we have normal seasonality. But could you comment about seasonality for fiscal '23? I would assume the backlog and supply makes seasonality kind of less relevant?

鑑於積壓和您對 23 財年的強有力指導，您能否對季節性發表一些評論？我會假設季節性，我的意思是，對於 COVID，我們已經有很長時間沒有正常的季節性了。但是你能評論一下 23 財年的季節性嗎？我會假設積壓和供應使季節性不太相關？

Yes, Jim, I would -- yes, I mean that really is the answer to that. I think it is less relevant. It's interesting that we're seeing even stronger order flows in the Q1 that we're in right now. And typically, it would be lower.

是的，吉姆，我會——是的，我的意思是這確實是答案。我認為它不太相關。有趣的是，我們現在看到第一季度的訂單流更加強勁。通常，它會更低。

So I think because of all the whipsaw of demand over COVID and the supply chain, I think those dynamics have kind of been thrown up in the air. And I think it's going to take a while before they kind of bed back down again, frankly, because people want to make sure that they're in the queue and that they are able to get the security of supply and even if it is further out.

所以我認為，由於對 COVID 和供應鏈的所有需求的洗盤，我認為這些動態已經被拋到了空中。坦率地說，我認為他們需要一段時間才能再次回到床上，因為人們想確保他們在排隊，並且他們能夠獲得供應的安全性，即使它更進一步出去。

So it's sort of uncharted territory for us in terms of the seasonality piece. The whole -- I mean, as I think about FY '23, just to sort of simplify it, it's really all about what we can ship and supply. It really is. That's going to be the cause of any ebbs and flows in the various quarters. It's all about supply.

因此，就季節性而言，這對我們來說是一個未知領域。整體 - 我的意思是，當我想到 23 財年時，只是為了簡化它，它實際上是關於我們可以運送和供應的東西。確實如此。這將是各個方面任何潮起潮落的原因。一切都與供應有關。

If you take the midpoint following year, 22%, which is a little higher than what we've experienced for the long period of time. So that just sort of proves out what Gary is saying. It's all about how fast we can get components and deliver to customers, not so much the typical seasonal order pattern.

如果你採用第二年的中點，22%，這比我們長期以來經歷的要高一點。所以這只是證明了加里所說的話。這完全取決於我們能夠以多快的速度獲得組件並交付給客戶，而不是典型的季節性訂單模式。

And then my follow-up is, you mentioned backlog went from $4.4 billion to about $4.2 billion. And then earlier in the call, you mentioned that really, the upside to the quarter came late in the quarter. You got a fantastic month of October, outsized growth.

然後我的後續行動是，你提到積壓從 44 億美元增加到大約 42 億美元。然後在電話會議的早些時候，您確實提到，本季度的上行空間出現在本季度末。你有一個美妙的 10 月，超大的增長。

So is that fair to say that $200 million work down in backlog that we could actually see a faster work down in inventory -- I'm sorry, on backlog that you've progressed in the quarters ahead because it was kind of an outsized month for the quarter? Or how should we think about the cadence of the backlog?

因此，可以說 2 億美元的積壓工作減少了，我們實際上可以看到更快的庫存工作——對不起，在積壓工作上，你在未來幾個季度取得了進展，因為這是一個超大的月份這個季度？或者我們應該如何考慮積壓的節奏？

I think it's very difficult for us to predict that, to be honest. And that's why I sort of shared with you what we're seeing in Q1. I actually think our backlog is going to go up in -- coming out of Q1. Even though we've upped our shipment and our revenue guide for Q1, I think midpoint was [8 70]. And I think we've just this morning shared midpoint would be about [9 50].

老實說，我認為我們很難預測這一點。這就是為什麼我要與您分享我們在第一季度看到的內容。實際上，我認為我們的積壓工作將會增加——從第一季度開始。儘管我們已經提高了第一季度的出貨量和收入指南，但我認為中點是 [8:70]。我想我們今天早上剛剛共享的中點大約是 [9:50]。

Even with that, we still think we're going to add backlog coming out of Q1. So I think it's just a testament to the, A, the strong demand characteristics that we're seeing across the board; and B, supply chain is improving, but lead times are still long.

即便如此，我們仍然認為我們將增加第一季度的積壓工作。所以我認為這只是證明，A，我們全面看到的強勁需求特徵； B，供應鏈正在改善，但交貨期仍然很長。

Our next question is from Catharine Trebnick with MKM Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 MKM Partners 的 Catharine Trebnick。

Excellent print. Can you describe the target markets you're specifically looking at with these 2 new acquisitions? It looks like you're trying to go more into the regional market, but just clarify that for me.

優秀的打印。您能否描述一下您在這兩項新收購中特別關注的目標市場？看起來你正試圖更多地進入區域市場，但請為我澄清一下。

Catherine, the 2 acquisitions from a solution perspective, I'll talk to are broadband access part of our portfolio, which is one of the key use cases we've talked to you about as part of our next-generation metro and edge TAM expansion. So anybody building our next-generation fiber access solutions would be the target market.

凱瑟琳，從解決方案的角度來看，我要談的 2 項收購是我們產品組合中的寬帶接入部分，這是我們作為下一代城域和邊緣 TAM 擴展的一部分與您討論的關鍵用例之一.因此，任何構建我們下一代光纖接入解決方案的人都將成為目標市場。

There's lots of activity. Of course, some rural broadband funding that speaks to your Tier 2 opportunity, but there are also Tier 1s around the world that are looking at their architecture for their fiber build-outs as well. And we're attacking both of those spaces.

有很多活動。當然，一些農村寬帶資金說明了您的第 2 層機會，但世界各地也有第 1 層也在考慮他們的光纖擴建架構。我們正在攻擊這兩個空間。

And then how much does this lift your total addressable market?

那麼這對您的整個潛在市場有多大提升？

We were -- we had indicated with our focus on next-generation metro and edge that our TAM expansion had basically almost doubled, and we had talked about that in the past. This really is a part of securing a stronger solution portfolio set to go after that already announced expanded TAM.

我們 - 我們已經表明我們對下一代城域網和邊緣的關注，我們的 TAM 擴展基本上幾乎翻了一番，我們過去曾談到過這一點。這確實是確保更強大的解決方案組合的一部分，該組合將在已經宣布擴展的 TAM 之後繼續使用。

Our question comes from Mike Genovese with Rosenblatt Securities.

我們的問題來自 Rosenblatt Securities 的 Mike Genovese。

I just wanted to clarify on the gross margin for this quarter that you reported, the strength. Was that really all mix towards modems? Or was it supply chain improvement? Is there not only better supply, but is it more -- coming at a more reasonable price than before?

我只是想澄清一下你報告的本季度的毛利率，實力。這真的是所有混合調製解調器嗎？還是供應鏈改善？是不是不僅有更好的供應，而且有更多——而且價格比以前更合理？

Mostly mix. We did see some improvement from expectations in our, what we call, exception costs, which are a combination of logistics costs and the premium costs that we paid, but it's mostly mix.

主要是混合。我們確實看到了我們所謂的異常成本的預期有所改善，這些成本是物流成本和我們支付的保費成本的組合，但它主要是混合成本。

Okay. And then just quickly, for this year, for '23, I didn't really hear a gross margin outlook for the full year. I got a revenue outlook for the full year, but I mean, should we think this year 43.6, I want them on consistently for this year. Is that fair?

好的。然後很快，對於今年，對於 23 年，我並沒有真正聽到全年的毛利率前景。我得到了全年的收入前景，但我的意思是，如果我們認為今年是 43.6，我希望他們今年能保持一致。這公平嗎？

We said 42 to 44 for the full year. Average it will be in low 40's in Q1.

我們說全年是 42 到 44。平均它將在第一季度處於 40 的低位。

Our next question comes from David Vogt with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 David Vogt。

I know we've danced around sort of the backlog and the strength of the business question, but I want to maybe take a longer-term view and maybe pull back a little bit. If I look at your business back from, let's say, fiscal '19 before COVID, and I kind of run it forward through your '25 guidance, I think at the high end of your 3-year plan would suggest that your business would have grown at a 6% CAGR, which is kind of consistent with your model.

我知道我們已經圍繞著積壓的工作和業務問題的強度進行了討論，但我想從長遠來看，也許會稍微後退一點。如果我從比方說 COVID 之前的 19 財年回顧您的業務，並且我通過您的 25 年指導將其向前推進，我認為在您 3 年計劃的高端會表明您的業務將有以 6% 的複合年增長率增長，這在某種程度上與您的模型一致。

I mean, is that the right way to think about it as we go through '23, '24 and '25, backlog normalizes, and we're back to sort of a normalized mid- to slightly better growth dynamic for the overall business?

我的意思是，當我們經歷 23 年、24 年和 25 年，積壓正常化，我們又回到整體業務的正常化中到略微更好的增長動力時，這是正確的思考方式嗎？

I actually think that's a pretty good way of thinking about it because our market has been roiled very significantly over the past 3 years, and we're going to have outsized growth for the next 3. But I'd just say this, if you deconstruct the 10% to 12% average annual growth rate that we project for the next 3, and you say we're going to do -- we believe we're going to do 17% in '23, which is the midpoint of our guide, then the growth rates for the last 2 years are actually a bit higher than what we have called before.

事實上，我認為這是一個很好的思考方式，因為我們的市場在過去 3 年裡發生了翻天覆地的變化，我們將在接下來的 3 年裡實現巨大的增長。但我只想說，如果你解構我們為接下來的 3 年預測的 10% 到 12% 的平均年增長率，你說我們要做——我們相信我們將在 23 年實現 17%，這是我們的中點指導，那麼最近兩年的增長率實際上比我們之前所說的要高一點。

Remember, we've said 6% to 8% was our long-term growth rate for a great number of years now. So I think the business is strong now, and we have not just the fundamental growth that we've seen, but also the subsidies for broadband that is -- that are going in the U.S. and other places.

請記住，我們已經說過 6% 到 8% 是我們多年來的長期增長率。所以我認為現在的業務很強勁，我們不僅看到了我們所看到的基本增長，而且還有美國和其他地方正在進行的寬帶補貼。

Right. And maybe just a quick follow-up. I know you've talked about backlog being difficult to predict. But can you just share with us sort of what underpins the '24, '25 from a backlog perspective versus in-period orders and how you're thinking about that?

正確的。也許只是快速跟進。我知道您已經談到積壓很難預測。但是，您能否從積壓訂單的角度與期間訂單相比，與我們分享支持 '24、'25 的因素，以及您是如何考慮的？

The '24, '25 is much more dependent upon orders that will come in over next year and the following years. '23 is we've got the backlog, frankly, to deliver '23, we just have to get the parts. So it's -- we assume that we're going to have good orders as we move through '23, '24 and '25, and that underpins our guide. The thing I didn't mention when I was talking about the outlook is our TAM is expanding. And that's something that we're attacking and with early good returns.

'24、'25 更依賴於明年和隨後幾年的訂單。 '23 是我們有積壓，坦率地說，交付'23，我們只需要獲得零件。所以它是——我們假設我們將在 23 年、24 年和 25 年期間獲得良好的訂單，這支撐了我們的指南。我在談論前景時沒有提到的是我們的 TAM 正在擴大。這就是我們正在攻擊的東西，並且早期有良好的回報。

Thank you, David, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate the opportunity to speak with you. We wish you all a happy holiday, and happy new year. We're looking forward to connecting with you all over the next week or 2. Thank you. Have a good day.

謝謝大衛，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們很高興有機會與您交談。祝大家假期愉快，新年快樂。我們期待在接下來的一兩週內與您聯繫。謝謝。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。