Ciena Corp (CIEN) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ciena Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Year-end 2022 Results.

大家好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎收看Ciena 2022財年第四季及全年業績報告。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Gregg Lampf, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

（操作說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。現在我將會議交給今天的發言人，投資者關係副總裁格雷格·蘭普夫先生。請開始發言。

Thank you, Katherine. Good morning, and welcome to Ciena's 2022 Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Year-End Review.

謝謝凱瑟琳。早安，歡迎收聽Ciena公司2022財年第四季及年終回顧。

On the call today is Gary Smith, President and CEO; and Jim Moylan, CFO. Scott McFeely, our Senior Vice President of Global Products and Services, is also with us for Q&A.

今天參加電話會議的有總裁兼執行長加里·史密斯和財務長吉姆·莫伊蘭。全球產品與服務資深副總裁史考特‧麥克菲利也將出席問答環節。

In addition to this call and the press release, we have posted to the Investors section of our website an accompanying investor presentation that reflects this discussion as well as certain highlighted items from the previous -- from the quarter and the fiscal year. Our comments today speak to our recent performance, our view on current market dynamics and drivers of our business as well as a discussion of our financial outlook.

除了本次電話會議和新聞稿之外，我們還在網站的投資者關係頁面發布了一份配套的投資者演示文稿，其中不僅涵蓋了本次討論的內容，還重點介紹了上一季度和上一財年的部分重要信息。我們今天的演講將著重闡述我們近期的業績表現、對當前市場動態和業務驅動因素的看法，以及對財務前景的展望。

Today's discussion includes certain adjusted or non-GAAP measures of Ciena's results of operations. A detailed reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results is included in today's press release.

今天的討論涉及Ciena公司經營績效的某些調整後指標或非GAAP指標。這些非GAAP指標與GAAP績效的詳細調節表已包含在今天的新聞稿中。

Before turning the call over to Gary, I'll remind you that during this call, we'll be making certain forward-looking statements. Such statements, including our quarterly and annual guidance and long-term financial outlook, discussion of market opportunities and strategy and commentary about impacts of supply chain constraints on our business and results, are based on current expectations, forecasts and assumptions regarding the company and its markets, which include certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements discussed today.

在將電話轉交給 Gary 之前，我想提醒各位，在本次電話會議中，我們將做出一些前瞻性陳述。這些陳述，包括我們的季度和年度業績指引、長期財務展望、市場機會和策略探討，以及關於供應鏈限制對我們業務和業績影響的評論，均基於我們對公司及其市場的當前預期、預測和假設，其中包含某些風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與今天討論的陳述存在重大差異。

Assumptions relating to our outlook, whether mentioned on this call or included in the investor presentation that we'll post shortly after, are an important part of such forward-looking statements, and we encourage you to consider them.

無論是在本次電話會議中提及，還是包含在我們稍後將發布的投資者簡報中，與我們展望相關的假設都是此類前瞻性聲明的重要組成部分，我們鼓勵您考慮這些假設。

Our forward-looking statements should also be viewed in the context of the risk factors detailed in our most recent 10-Q filing and in our upcoming 10-K filing. Our 10-K is required to be filed with the SEC by December 28, and we expect to file by that date.

我們的前瞻性陳述也應結合我們最新提交的10-Q季報告和即將提交的10-K報告中詳述的風險因素進行解讀。我們的10-K報告須於12月28日前提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC），我們預計將按時提交。

Ciena assumes no obligations to update the information discussed in this conference call, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. As always, we will allow for as much Q&A as possible today. So we ask that you limit yourselves to one question and one follow-up.

Ciena不承擔更新本次電話會議中所討論資訊的義務，無論是因為出現新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。像往常一樣，我們今天將盡可能地安排問答環節。因此，請您盡量將問題限制在一個問題和一個後續問題內。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Gary.

接下來，我將把電話交給加里。

Thanks, Gregg, and good morning, everyone. Today, we reported strong fiscal fourth quarter results, including higher-than-expected revenue of $971 million and adjusted gross margin of 45.2%. This performance reflects the benefit of some favorable supply chain dynamics that occurred in the second half of the quarter, including that we received more integrated circuits than expected from certain suppliers and that we were also able to procure more parts in the open market than originally projected. These developments enabled us to ship more product to customers in the quarter, especially modems, which also had a positive impact on both revenue and margin.

謝謝格雷格，大家早安。今天，我們公佈了強勁的第四財季業績，包括高於預期的9.71億美元營收和45.2%的調整後毛利率。這項業績得益於本季下半段供應鏈的一些有利因素，例如我們從某些供應商收到的積體電路數量超出預期，以及我們在公開市場上採購的零件數量也超過了最初的預期。這些進展使我們能夠在本季向客戶交付更多產品，尤其是調變解調器，這也對營收和毛利率產生了正面影響。

For the full fiscal year, we delivered revenue of $3.63 billion, essentially flat with fiscal 2021 due entirely to the challenging supply chain conditions that we encountered during the year. Despite the difficult supply environment in fiscal '22, we saw robust demand from customers across our segments, regions and applications, as evidenced by annual order growth of 26% and a backlog of greater than $4 billion as we exited the year.

整個財年，我們的營收為36.3億美元，與2021財年基本持平，這完全是由於我們在這一年中遇到了嚴峻的供應鏈挑戰。儘管2022財年的供應環境艱難，但我們各個業務部門、地區和應用領域的客戶需求依然強勁，年度訂單增長26%，年底積壓訂單超過40億美元，充分證明了這一點。

Our results across FY '22, including the strong finish in Q4, demonstrate the continued volatility and unpredictable nature of the current supply dynamics. With respect to supply, overall, we are seeing ongoing signs of gradual improvement. The majority of our suppliers are delivering to their current committed lead times, and volumes are slowly increasing. And we also expect continued improvements in these areas as we move through fiscal 2023.

我們在2022財年的業績，包括第四季度的強勁收官，都顯示當前供應鏈動態依然波動且難以預測。就供應而言，總體上我們看到持續的逐步改善跡象。我們的大多數供應商都能按時交付，供貨量也緩慢增長。我們預計，隨著2023財年的推進，這些方面將持續改善。

We are also starting to benefit from the various mitigation steps that we've taken over the last year or so. As a reminder, these include product engineering redesigns and qualification of alternative components designed to minimize the impact of supply chain challenges on our customers. At the same time, the unpredictable performance of specific vendors for a relatively small number of components, even if they are low cost, low value, can negatively and disproportionately impact our revenue and significantly shift our product mix, which is what happened in Q3 of last year.

過去一年左右，我們採取了多項緩解措施，目前已開始顯現成效。這些措施包括產品工程重新設計以及替代組件的認證，旨在最大程度地減少供應鏈挑戰對客戶的影響。同時，即使某些組件成本低、價值不高，但特定供應商在少數組件上的不可預測表現，也可能對我們的收入造成負面影響，並顯著改變我們的產品組合，這種情況在去年第三季度就已發生。

Conversely, our Q4 results, particularly on revenue and margin, illustrate how these same supply dynamics can have an unexpected and disproportionate impact in a favorable direction. So to be clear, the volatility can obviously manifest as both headwinds and tailwinds. But generally, we believe them to be moving in a positive direction.

相反，我們第四季的業績，尤其是在營收和利潤率方面，顯示同樣的供應動態變化可能會產生意想不到的、不成比例的正面影響。因此，需要明確的是，這種波動顯然既可能帶來不利影響，也可能帶來有利影響。但總體而言，我們認為其發展方向是正面的。

With respect to demand, we remain very positive that the fundamental drivers, including 5G, cloud and automation are durable over the long term. Based on these drivers in network investment, we continue to see a strong demand environment in the coming quarters and the next several years.

就需求而言，我們依然非常樂觀地認為，包括5G、雲端運算和自動化在內的基本驅動因素具有長期永續性。基於這些網路投資驅動因素，我們預計未來幾季乃至未來幾年內，市場需求將持續強勁。

Importantly, we are confident that our leading technology as well as our strategy to expand our addressable market in key areas are closely aligned with these drivers and the areas of investment for our customers.

重要的是，我們相信，我們領先的技術以及我們在關鍵領域擴大目標市場的策略與這些驅動因素以及我們客戶的投資領域密切相關。

As we look to FY '23, specifically the combination of continued signs of gradual supply improvement and our significant backlog gives us confidence that we will deliver outsized year-on-year revenue growth and gain market share. Jim will expand upon this shortly with more specifics on our outlook and how we are thinking about our business over the longer term within these demand and supply conditions.

展望2023財年，持續的供應逐步改善跡像以及我們大量的積壓訂單，讓我們有信心實現超預期的年度營收成長並擴大市場份額。吉姆稍後將就此展開更詳細的闡述，介紹我們的展望以及在當前供需環境下我們如何著眼於業務的長期發展。

Before he does that, I want to share a few highlights from the fourth quarter and fiscal year. A particular note is the growth in our routing and switching portfolio, for which quarterly revenue was up nearly 40% year-over-year in Q4 as we benefited from the addition of the Vyatta Solutions and organic portfolio enhancements.

在此之前，我想先分享一下第四季和本財年的一些亮點。尤其值得一提的是我們的路由和交換業務組合的成長，第四季該業務的營收年增近40%，這得益於Vyatta Solutions的加入以及我們自身業務組合的最佳化。

In fact, during Q4, we reached a milestone of more than 200 Adaptive IP customers, fueled by momentum in coherent routing, metro aggregation, PON and high-speed business services. And we continue to invest in our next-gen metro and edge strategy, particularly in our routing and switching portfolio.

事實上，在第四季度，我們實現了自適應IP客戶數量突破200家的里程碑，這得益於相干路由、城域匯聚、PON和高速商業服務領域的強勁成長動能。我們將繼續投資於下一代城域和邊緣策略，尤其是在路由和交換產品組合方面。

As you saw, we recently closed the acquisition of Benu Networks, and announced that we are acquiring Tibit Communications, which we expect to close in Q1 '23. These acquisitions will enable us to build upon our existing strategic investments in fiber broadband access and pursue a larger set of opportunities in this market segment.

如您所見，我們最近完成了對 Benu Networks 的收購，並宣布將收購 Tibit Communications，預計將於 2023 年第一季完成。這些收購將使我們能夠鞏固在光纖寬頻接入領域現有的策略投資，並在該細分市場尋求更多機會。

Specifically, the addition of advanced subscriber management and next-generation PON technologies will advance our ability to address fast-growing applications, including residential broadband, enterprise business services and fixed wireless access. This also represents a significant addressable market expansion for Ciena, something we've been talking to you about for some time within our Routing and Switching segment and is expected to be a considerable investment area for many of our customers.

具體而言，新增的進階用戶管理和下一代PON技術將提升我們滿足快速成長的應用需求的能力，包括住宅寬頻、企業業務服務和固定無線存取。這也意味著Ciena可觸達市場規模的顯著擴大，我們先前已在路由和交換業務領域與您探討過這一話題，預計這將成為我們眾多客戶的一項重要投資領域。

In optical, we added 15 new customers for WaveLogic 5e in Q4, bringing our total global customer count to more than 200 with more than 50,000 WaveLogic 5e modems shipped to date. In Blue Planet, we won several new logos during the year while expanding our presence at a number of Tier 1 service providers.

在光纖通訊領域，我們在第四季度新增了15家WaveLogic 5e客戶，使我們的全球客戶總數超過200家，迄今已出貨超過5萬台WaveLogic 5e數據機。在Blue Planet領域，我們年內贏得了多個新客戶，並擴大了與多家一級服務供應商的合作。

Additionally, our strategic win at DISH has now gone live with both our inventory and our service order orchestration solutions. And our network transformation services grew 50% year-over-year. I think this really reflects the increased demand from customers to move from legacy to next-generation networks.

此外，我們在DISH的策略性成功案例現已全面上線，我們的庫存管理和服務訂單編排解決方案都已投入使用。同時，我們的網路轉型服務較去年同期成長了50%。我認為這充分反映了客戶從傳統網路遷移到下一代網路的日益增長的需求。

And lastly, with respect to diversification, our non-telco revenue was approximately 40% for the year. And within that, 4 of our top 10 customers were major web scalers. And like last year, we had more than $1 billion in orders from web-scale customers in FY '22, once again demonstrating continued strong demand from this key customer segment.

最後，就多元化而言，我們全年的非電信業務收入約佔總收入的40%。其中，我們前十大客戶中有四家是大型網路擴展型企業。與去年一樣，我們在2022財年從網路擴展型客戶那裡獲得了超過10億美元的訂單，再次證明了這個關鍵客戶群持續強勁的需求。

With that, I'll now hand over to Jim to take us through the results in a little more detail and provide our outlook. Jim?

接下來，我將把麥克風交給吉姆，讓他更詳細地為我們解讀結果，並提出我們的展望。吉姆？

Thanks, Gary. Good morning, everyone. As Gary mentioned, we delivered a very strong Q4 performance. Revenue came in at $971 million, well above the midpoint of our guide. This revenue result speaks to the durability of demand and the clear need by our customers for more equipment faster.

謝謝 Gary。大家早安。正如 Gary 所說，我們第四季的業績非常強勁。營收達到 9.71 億美元，遠超我們先前預期的中位數。這項營收數據顯示市場需求持續強勁，也反映了客戶對更快獲得更多設備的迫切需求。

Importantly, it illustrates what can happen when we get more of the components that have been in the shorter supply and which have most severely gated our deliveries to customers. Additionally, it reflects some benefit of additional production capacity brought on with our investments, which helped us to deliver our largest shipments month in history in October.

重要的是，它展現了當我們獲得更多先前供應短缺、嚴重阻礙客戶交貨的零件時，將會發生什麼。此外，它也反映了我們投資帶來的額外產能效益，這些產能幫助我們在10月份實現了有史以來最大的單月出貨量。

Q4 adjusted gross margin was strong at 45.2%, reflecting a favorable product mix as well as lower-than-expected incremental supply and logistics costs in the quarter. Adjusted gross margin in the quarter benefited from the greater-than-expected supply of key components, allowing us to deliver more modems. Clearly, availability of components and the performance of our vendors play a disproportionate role in our quarterly mix of deliveries.

第四季調整後毛利率表現強勁，達到 45.2%，這主要得益於有利的產品組合以及低於預期的增量供應和物流成本。關鍵零件供應超出預期，使得我們能夠交付更多調變解調器，從而提升了本季的調整後毛利率。顯然，零件的可用性和供應商的業績對我們季度的交付組合起著至關重要的作用。

Q4 adjusted operating expense was as expected at $313 million. With respect to profitability measures, in Q4, we delivered adjusted operating margin of 13%, adjusted net income of $91 million and adjusted EPS of $0.61 per share.

第四季調整後營業費用符合預期，為3.13億美元。在獲利指標方面，第四季我們實現了13%的調整後營業利潤率、9,100萬美元的調整後淨利和0.61美元的調整後每股盈餘。

In addition, in Q4, our adjusted EBITDA was $154 million. Cash used in operations was $14 million. We continue to build inventory of certain components in Q4 while we wait for delivery of those components that are the most constrained. We also experienced a back-end loaded quarter, which caused accounts receivable to increase.

此外，第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 1.54 億美元。經營活動所用現金為 1,400 萬美元。在等待供應最緊張的零件到貨期間，我們繼續在第四季度增加部分零件的庫存。同時，由於本季業務量集中在下半年，導致應收帳款增加。

With respect to our performance for the full fiscal year, annual revenue was $3.63 billion. As Gary mentioned, we ended the year with $4.2 billion in backlog, slightly below where we ended in Q3, but still nearly double our backlog as we entered fiscal 2022. We've obviously seen periods of record order volumes and significant backlog growth in fiscal year '22.

就整個財年的表現而言，年度營收為36.3億美元。正如Gary所提到的，我們年底的積壓訂單為42億美元，略低於第三季末的水平，但仍比進入2022財年時的積壓訂單量幾乎翻了一番。顯然，我們在2022財年經歷了訂單量創紀錄和積壓訂單顯著增長的時期。

That said, as supply chain conditions gradually improve, we expect order growth relative to revenue and backlog to moderate over time even in a strong demand environment. Adjusted gross margin for the year was 43.6%, a good result and in line with expectations. And adjusted OpEx for the year totaled $1.17 billion.

儘管如此，隨著供應鏈狀況逐步改善，即使在需求強勁的環境下，我們預期訂單成長相對於營收和積壓訂單的成長速度也會逐漸放緩。本年度調整後毛利率為43.6%，表現良好，符合預期。本年度調整後營運支出總計11.7億美元。

Given our large order intake throughout the year, we paid higher sales commissions than we had planned. However, with lower-than-expected revenue and operating income, we will pay a much lower corporate incentive bonus than originally planned. If normalized for these 2 items, adjusted OpEx would have been just over $1.2 billion, which was what we expected and guided for the year.

鑑於全年訂單量龐大，我們支付的銷售佣金高於原計劃。然而，由於營收和營業利潤低於預期，我們將支付遠低於原計劃的企業激勵獎金。若剔除這兩個因素，調整後的營運支出將略高於12億美元，這與我們先前的預期和指引相符。

Moving to profitability. Adjusted operating margin in fiscal year '22 was 11.2%, and adjusted EPS was $1.90. Free cash flow for fiscal '22 was negative $259 million. This reflects the increase in inventory caused by lack of availability of a few key components.

在獲利狀況方面，2022財年調整後營業利益率為11.2%，調整後每股收益為1.90美元。 2022財年自由現金流為負2.59億美元，反映了由於部分關鍵零件供應短缺導致的庫存增加。

Finally, our balance sheet remains strong as we ended the year with approximately $1.2 billion in cash and investments. Just as a reminder, we also met our goal of repurchasing $500 million in shares in the year and plan to repurchase shares in fiscal '23 in the range of $250 million.

最後，我們的資產負債表依然穩健，年底時我們持有約12億美元的現金和投資。需要提醒的是，我們也實現了年內回購5億美元股票的目標，並計劃在2023財年回購約2.5億美元的股票。

Turning to guidance. In the last few years, our revenue has been relatively flat as a result of the unique market conditions that stemmed from a global pandemic, which led to the supply chain crisis. Looking forward, we see signs of continued gradual supply improvement, which, when combined with our significant backlog, sets us up well for outsized growth in fiscal '23.

接下來談談業績展望。過去幾年，受全球疫情引發的特殊市場環境影響，我們的收入基本上持平，疫情也導致了供應鏈危機。展望未來，我們看到供應狀況持續逐步改善，加上我們龐大的訂單儲備，這將使我們在2023財年實現超額成長。

Accordingly, we expect to grow our revenue in the year in the range of 16% to 18%. To be clear, this outlook includes key assumptions that are particularly important in a still uncertain environment.

因此，我們預計今年的營收成長幅度將在16%至18%之間。需要明確的是，這項預期包含了一些關鍵假設，這些假設在目前仍存在不確定性的環境下尤其重要。

First, with respect to macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical dynamics, due to the size of our backlog, we believe our fiscal '23 outlook is somewhat less dependent on the macro environment than in a typical year. That said, to be clear, our guide assumes that the global economy does not significantly worsen and more importantly, that there are no material adverse effects on our business.

首先，就宏觀經濟狀況和地緣政治動態而言，由於我們積壓訂單規模龐大，我們認為2023財年的業績展望受宏觀環境的影響程度低於往年。儘管如此，需要明確的是，我們的業績指引基於以下假設：全球經濟不會顯著惡化，更重要的是，不會對我們的業務產生任何實質的不利影響。

Second, with respect to component availability and general supply conditions, as Gary mentioned, we continue to see and we expect volatility, but we have seen overall improvement. Our forecast assumes that supply chain dynamics do not worsen.

其次，關於零件供應和整體供應狀況，正如Gary所提到的，我們持續看到並預期會出現波動，但整體情況有所改善。我們的預測是基於供應鏈動態不會惡化的假設。

With respect to gross margin for fiscal 2023, our outlook reflects the expectation that supply and logistics costs will ease somewhat but will remain elevated. And that as supply improves, we will take more revenue on the new wins we've secured over the last several years -- 2 years.

關於2023財年的毛利率，我們的展望反映了這樣一種預期：供應和物流成本將有所下降，但仍將維持在高位。隨著供應的改善，我們將從過去幾年（兩年）獲得的新訂單中獲得更多收入。

Accordingly, we believe that our gross margin for the full year 2023 will be in the range of 42% to 44%. With operating expense we can intend to continue investing strategically in our business in order to expand our addressable market and to advance our position in key growth areas. Therefore, we expect adjusted operating expense to average $325 million per quarter in fiscal '23.

因此，我們預計2023年全年毛利率將在42%至44%之間。在營運支出方面，我們計劃繼續對業務進行策略性投資，以擴大目標市場並鞏固我們在關鍵成長領域的地位。因此，我們預計2023財年調整後營運支出平均為每季3.25億美元。

I'll point out that we are using an as adjusted tax rate of 22% in our fiscal '23 outlook. The 1.8% rate increase from last year's 20.2% rate takes into consideration our best estimate of having increased taxable income and higher tax rate locations during the fiscal year.

我要指出的是，我們在2023財年展望中採用的是經調整後的22%的稅率。與去年20.2%的稅率相比，此次稅率上調1.8%，主要考慮了我們對本財政年度應稅收入增加以及高稅率地區稅率上升的最佳預估。

In the more immediate term, for Q1 2023, we expect to deliver revenue in a range of $910 million to $990 million, adjusted gross margin in the low 40s range and adjusted operating expense between $320 million and $325 million. Looking beyond next year, we remain confident in the positive secular demand drivers, including continued growth in bandwidth demand, which over a long period of time has been unaffected by macroeconomic conditions.

就近期而言，我們預計2023年第一季營收將在9.1億美元至9.9億美元之間，調整後毛利率在40%左右，調整後營運費用在3.2億美元至3.25億美元之間。展望明年之後，我們仍對積極的長期需求驅動因素充滿信心，包括頻寬需求的持續成長，而頻寬需求長期以來並未受到宏觀經濟環境的影響。

We believe our customers will be compelled to prioritize network CapEx to address this demand over the coming quarters and years. And as we continue investing in our long-term strategy to expand our addressable market, we will be in a strong position to intersect those customer network investments.

我們相信，在未來幾季和幾年裡，為了滿足這項需求，我們的客戶將不得不優先考慮網路資本支出。隨著我們持續投資於拓展目標市場的長期策略，我們將處於有利地位，能夠更好地滿足客戶的網路投資需求。

All of that, in combination with more normalized supply chain conditions, positions us well to deliver strong revenue growth over the next several years. More specifically, we expect the industry to grow in approximately the mid-single digits percentages during this time period, and we intend you to gain footprint and take market share as we have over the last decade.

所有這些因素，再加上供應鏈狀況的逐步恢復正常，使我們能夠在未來幾年實現強勁的營收成長。更具體地說，我們預計在此期間整個行業的成長率將保持在中等個位數百分比左右，我們希望您能像過去十年一樣，不斷擴大市場份額。

That said, our revenue growth over the next 3 years will not be linear, particularly given our expectations for outsized revenue growth in fiscal '23 predominantly driven by improvement in supply. Our revenue growth expectations for fiscal '24 and fiscal '25 are based on an assumption of more normal business conditions, which are, by definition, more dependent upon the macro environment.

儘管如此，未來三年我們的營收成長並不會呈現線性成長，尤其考慮到我們預計2023財年營收將大幅成長，而這主要得益於供應改善。我們對2024財年和2025財年的營收成長預期是基於商業環境趨於正常的假設，而商業環境本身就更依賴宏觀經濟環境。

Nevertheless, we are confident in continued strong demand dynamics and our leading market position. For that reason, we currently expect to deliver a 3-year annual revenue growth rate in the 10% to 12% range throughout fiscal 2025. That does take into account the 16% to 18% next year. Furthermore, we expect over the next several years that adjusted gross margin will improve to the mid-40s range and that we will increase profitability.

儘管如此，我們對持續強勁的需求動能和我們領先的市場地位充滿信心。因此，我們目前預計在2025財年將達到10%至12%的三年年均營收成長率。這其中已考慮到明年16%至18%的成長率。此外，我們預計未來幾年調整後的毛利率將提升至40%左右，獲利能力也將有所提高。

In closing, while '22 has been a challenging year for Ciena because of supply chain conditions, our market position has never been better, and we expect that it will continue to improve. Demand for bandwidth is growing at rates of 30-plus percent. Demand for capacity from customers is sturdy, and Ciena has the best technology and customer relationships in the industry.

最後，儘管2022年由於供應鏈狀況對Ciena來說是充滿挑戰的一年，但我們的市場地位卻達到了前所未有的高度，並且我們預計這一優勢還將繼續增強。頻寬需求正以超過30%的速度成長。客戶對容量的需求依然強勁，而Ciena擁有業界最佳的技術和客戶關係。

We believe that our supply chain will continue to improve as we move through '23, which will enable us to better service the strong demand from customers. And we believe that our financial results will reflect this.

我們相信，隨著2023年的推進，我們的供應鏈將持續改善，從而更好地滿足客戶的強勁需求。我們也相信，我們的財務表現將反映出這一點。

With that, Katherine, we'll now take questions from the sell-side analysts.

接下來，凱瑟琳，我們將接受賣方分析師的提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

We're also aware of a technical issue with the Q&A line. We're resending a link to the sell siders for you to be able to access that way.

我們也注意到問答專線有技術問題。我們正在重新發送連結給賣方，以便您可以透過該連結存取問答功能。

Our first question comes from Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的梅塔·馬歇爾。

This is Karan Juvekar on from Morgan Stanley. Congratulations on the results. And I guess just first question being, as you've seen supply chain loosen up a bit in the second half of the quarter, have you seen any changes to maybe customer conversations, maybe with conversations with customers that have moved to other vendors or maybe just generally at a high level, any incremental hesitation around macro and maybe any purchasing patterns?

我是摩根士丹利的卡蘭·朱維卡爾。祝賀你們取得如此佳績。我想問的第一個問題是，鑑於你們在本季下半段觀察到供應鏈有所放鬆，你們是否注意到與客戶的溝通發生了任何變化？例如，一些客戶轉向了其他供應商，或者從整體上看，客戶在宏觀經濟狀況和採購模式方面是否出現了任何猶豫？

So why don't I take the second part of that? The answer to your question is no, we haven't. We continue to see, as we talked about in the earlier comments, very strong demand characteristics across the board, across geographies, across applications, across different customer segments. And that's evidenced from a demand point of view in the outsized order that we -- orders that we received in the year.

那麼，為什麼我不回答第二部分呢？答案是否定的，我們沒有。正如我們之前提到的，我們持續看到各個領域、各個應用領域、各個客戶群都呈現出非常強勁的需求。這一點從我們今年收到的巨額訂單中就可見一斑。

When you think about it, we've got 26% order growth in the year. And that's a very strong indicator around demand. And a lot of our customers still want the equipment faster than we can get it to them for all the secular demand dynamics that we're aware of. So not seeing any change right now across the customer piece in terms of demand. Scott, do you want to comment on any of the supply chain stuff specifically?

仔細想想，我們今年的訂單成長了26%。這有力地顯示了市場需求。而且，由於我們了解的各種長期需求變化，許多客戶仍然希望盡快收到設備，而我們卻無法及時交付。所以目前來看，客戶需求方面並沒有出現任何變化。史考特，你有什麼關於供應鏈的具體建議嗎？

In the supply chain stuff side that Gary mentioned it, we got more supply of components than we were expecting in the second half of the quarter. And that was across the board, but particularly important was those constrained components also we saw more supply. We also have more success in procuring those in the open broker market as well.

正如Gary所提到的，在供應鏈方面，我們在下半季獲得的零件供應量超出了預期。這種情況普遍存在，但尤其重要的是，那些供應緊張的零件也增加了供應。此外，我們在公開經紀市場上採購這些零件也更加順利。

And given the investments that we've talked about in the past around building up a bigger manufacturing capacity so we can turn those components into finished goods faster, that came into play significantly in our month of October. And I think Jim mentioned, our biggest shipment month ever.

鑑於我們之前討論過的旨在擴大生產能力、加快零件加工成成品速度的投資，這些投資在10月份發揮了顯著作用。我想吉姆也提到過，10月份是我們有史以來出貨量最大的一個月。

Got it. Okay. That's very helpful. And then just a quick follow-up on maybe just quantifying or just any idea on how much of a benefit in the quarter the price increases was? And maybe how should we expect that to trend sequentially to Q1? Anything we should expect, an uptick sequentially? Or how we should think about that?

明白了。好的。這很有幫助。那麼，能否再快速跟進一下，能否量化一下，或者說，能否大致估算一下本季價格上漲帶來的收益？以及，我們應該如何預期價格上漲的趨勢會如何？比如，價格會比上季上漲嗎？或者我們應該如何看待這個問題？

Still not seeing a ton of effect of that price increase in Q4. We did not see it. As we look into our backlog, it is there. It's fully encompassed in our guide. And without giving a number, I'll just say that it's in the single-digit percentages ranges.

第四季價格上漲的影響仍然不大。我們並沒有感受到。但當我們查看積壓訂單時，發現確實存在價格上漲的影響，這在我們的業績指南中已經完全涵蓋。雖然我不打算給出具體數字，但我可以肯定地說，價格上漲的影響在個位數百分比範圍內。

Our next question comes from Paul Silverstein with Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 公司的 Paul Silverstein。

Gary, Jim, I did hear your responses to the previous question during the call, but I'm still going to ask you 2 related questions. One, one of your competitors have made comments about competitive gains. They clearly were referring to you, and I trust you listened to the Infinera call about competitive gains due to inability -- your inability to deliver because of the supply constraints. The question obviously being to what extent that has been an issue. But from your comments, it doesn't sound like it's a big issue.

Gary、Jim，我在電話會議中聽到了你們對上一個問題的回答，但我還是想問你們兩個相關的問題。首先，你們的一位競爭對手提到了競爭優勢。他們顯然指的是你們，我相信你們也聽了Infinera關於因供貨不足（你們無法按時交付）而導致競爭優勢的電話會議。問題顯然在於，這個問題在多大程度上造成了影響。但從你們的回答來看，這似乎不是一個大問題。

The other related question, again, from your comments, it sounds like not an issue, but given [Huawei], Corning, CommScope's commentary, a lot of which seem to be specific to AT&T, but perhaps other Tier 1s as well, it doesn't sound like you're seeing weakness, but I want to ask you the question.

另一個相關的問題，同樣，從你的評論來看，這似乎不是個問題，但考慮到華為、康寧、康普的評論，其中很多似乎都專門針對 AT&T，但也可能針對其他一級供應商，你似乎並沒有看到弱點，但我還是想問你這個問題。

Look, let me take the first part of that, Paul. Listen, there's been a lot of volatility with sort of whipsawing in supply and demand at any one moment in time and any given account. If we're sharing with others, then they're obviously going to try and get supply from who they can.

保羅，我先來說說第一部分。聽著，供需關係一直波動很大，任何時刻、任何帳戶的價格都可能出現劇烈波動。如果我們和別人分享，他們顯然會想辦法從其他管道取得貨源。

I would say, overall, and we are also taking new accounts as well. Overall, I mean, I think the order demand and the performance in Q4 kind of speaks for itself. And we expect very strong share gains, which are really built into our backlog and our guidance for the year. So our share gain is in our orders, and customers have voted. And they continue to migrate towards the best technology at scale, which is what Ciena has. Take part of that question, do you want to?

總的來說，我們一直在拓展新客戶。總的來說，我認為第四季的訂單需求和業績已經足以說明一切。我們預計市場佔有率將大幅成長，這已體現在我們的積壓訂單和全年業績指引中。因此，我們的市佔率成長體現在訂單量上，客戶已經用實際行動證明了這一點。他們持續向規模化的最佳技術靠攏，而這正是Ciena的優勢所在。您想參與回答這個問題嗎？

Our outlook for all of our major customers is good, and our order volume is good. We're not seeing any sign of weakness in AT&T or any of our major customers.

我們所有主要客戶的前景都很好，訂單量也表現良好。我們沒有發現AT&T或任何其他主要客戶出現任何疲軟跡象。

All right. And Gary, just to be clear, going back to the share gain commentary, if you have lost in certain situations share because of inability to deliver, you're telling us that's not among Tier 1s or it's not something you think is...

好的。加里，為了確認一下，回到市場份額增長的評論，如果你在某些情況下因為無法交付而損失了市場份額，你是在告訴我們，這種情況不屬於一級供應商，或者你認為這種情況不屬於一級供應商…

We've not lost any major customers whatsoever during this. And if there are particular, one moment in time someone shipped more than we have into that, we think that is transitory given the demand characteristics that we're seeing and engagement with these customers.

在此期間，我們沒有失去任何重要客戶。即使在某個特定時期，某家公司的出貨量超過了我們，考慮到我們觀察到的需求特徵以及與這些客戶的互動情況，我們認為這種情況只是暫時的。

Just to be clear though, Paul, we did see a relatively small number of cancellations in the quarter, probably the same dynamics that Gary is talking about. But that number has been overshadowed by the strong demand that we see overall. And whatever share we might have lost in any account, I'm confident that we will get it back over the coming quarters and years.

不過保羅，我得澄清一下，本季我們的確看到了相對較少的訂單取消，可能和加里提到的情況類似。但這個數字已經被整體強勁的需求所掩蓋。無論我們在某些​​客戶那裡損失了多少份額，我都有信心在未來的幾個季度和幾年裡重新奪回這些份額。

All right. And for my follow-up, there's obviously been a lot of investor concern about web scale, the health of web scale, in particular. From the commentary of the various major web-scale players, it certainly suggest they're not coming back or (inaudible). They set a strategic -- what are you guys seeing from that segment, obviously, not just here now, but looking downstream?

好的。接下來我想問的是，投資人顯然非常關注網路規模，尤其是網路規模的健康狀況。從各大網路規模企業的評論來看，他們似乎並沒有打算回歸，或（聽不清楚）。他們制定了一項策略──你們從這個領域看到了什麼？顯然，不只是現在，還要展望下游市場。

So we had a very strong performance, both in terms of revenue and in terms of order intake. It was well over $1 billion. We're continuing as we work with them in FY '23, we expect to shift revenue significantly more to GCN than we did last year.

因此，無論從營收或訂單量來看，我們的業績都非常強勁，遠遠超過了10億美元。在2023財年，我們將繼續與他們合作，預計屆時GCN的營收將比去年大幅提升。

And that's a combination of orders that we've got in the backlog and other orders that we're about to get. So it varies between the various players there. But overall, we see pretty strong demand as they continue to focus on building out their networks.

這包括我們積壓的訂單和即將收到的訂單。因此，不同廠商的情況各不相同。但總體而言，隨著他們繼續專注於拓展網絡，我們看到市場需求仍然強勁。

I also say that we have over the past few years developed a much deeper and more strategic relationship with those web-scale customers, who are driving so much of what's going on in our industry. And so we're very excited by the fact we're engaged with them by much more than just plain data center conditions. And hopefully, we'll be able to tell you about some of that stuff as we move through time.

我還想說，在過去幾年裡，我們與那些推動產業發展的網路規模客戶建立了更深入、更具策略性的合作關係。因此，我們非常高興能夠與他們進行的合作遠不止於資料中心本身。希望隨著時間的推移，我們能夠與大家分享更多這方面的內容。

Guys, can I ask for a clarification on one thing? For those of us who remember your acquisition of Catena back in 2004, which was as identical to your acquisition of Tibit as 2 deals could be. And correct me if I'm wrong, but there is nothing left of Catena employees, revenue, nothing.

各位，我可以請教一個問題嗎？我們這些還記得你們2004年收購Catena的人，當時收購Catena和收購Tibit的交易幾乎如出一轍。如果我沒記錯的話，Catena的員工、收入，什麼都沒留下。

Now I recognize that was a copper DSL-based solution. The market is incredibly different. This is optical. Maybe that's the answer. That's just a very different environment, and you're a very different company than you were 15-plus years ago. But any lessons learned from that field?

現在我意識到那是基於銅纜DSL的解決方案。市場環境已經截然不同了。這是光纖方案。也許這就是答案。環境完全不同，你們公司也跟15年前大不相同了。那麼，從那個領域中學到了哪些經驗教訓呢？

Well, I think you answered the question on that, Paul. I think you're absolutely right. We're a much different company. We've got much greater scale. And I think the complementary nature within the switching and routing technology that we have is -- the context of it is very different because we can wrap all that stuff around.

嗯，保羅，我覺得你已經回答了這個問題。你說得完全正確。我們是一家截然不同的公司。我們的規模更大。而且我認為，我們交換和路由技術的互補性在於——它的背景非常不同，因為我們可以將所有這些功能整合起來。

And the customer relationships that we have. We're now the largest player by quite a large way in the space that we're in. And those relationships have been developed and matured. And we think now that with bringing on Benu and Tibit, it really provides an excellent complement to the portfolio that we've already got.

我們與客戶建立了良好的關係。目前，我們在所處領域遙遙領先，是產業巨頭。這些關係已經發展成熟。我們認為，Benu 和 Tibit 的加入，是我們現有產品組合的絕佳補充。

And to be clear, Paul, it's approaching 20 years, so...

保羅，說清楚點，這都快20年了，所以…

Next question comes from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的薩米克·查特吉。

Great. I had a couple, and maybe if I can start with the gross margin outlook here. Jim, the gross margin outlook that you're providing, I don't know if you can walk us through a bit more of the puts and takes because it does sound like with the revenue -- outsized revenue growth you're expecting, you should have a bit more leverage to the gross margin, particularly with most of the sort of new product shipping at that time.

好的。我有一些想法，或許我可以先從毛利率展望開始。吉姆，你提供的毛利率展望，我不知道你能不能再詳細解釋一下其中的利弊，因為聽起來，鑑於你預期收入將出現大幅增長，你應該對毛利率有更大的提升空間，尤其是在屆時大部分新產品都會上市的情況下。

But maybe help me understand sort of any pressures, and also sounds like your sort of pressures from a supply logistics perspective are going down. So we would have expected a higher number. Maybe walk me through the puts and takes, and I have a follow-up.

不過，您能否幫我了解您所面臨的壓力？聽起來，從供應鏈物流的角度來看，您的壓力似乎正在減輕。所以我們原本預期這個數字會更高。能否詳細解釋一下投入和產出情況？我還有一些後續問題。

Yes. The big driver of our gross margin is mix of products, and we do have sort of a continuum of margins. Typically, the early parts of projects we're laying down with line systems or we do that at lower gross margin. When we fill those line systems with capacity, we're putting in cards or modems, which are higher margins. That's just the way the business works. It helps our customers get through the early less than fully loaded conditions in their network. So that's the way it works.

是的。我們毛利率的主要驅動因素是產品組合，而我們的毛利率也呈現出一定的連續性。通常，在專案初期，我們會鋪設線路系統，或者說，這部分的毛利率較低。當我們為這些線路系統增加容量時，我們會安裝網路卡或數據機，這些產品的毛利率更高。這就是我們的業務運作方式。這有助於我們的客戶順利度過網路早期負載不足的階段。就是這樣。

This year or in 2023, our expectation is that our mix will shift pretty significantly toward line systems. That's why we made the comment that we're talking about starting to ship on some of our new wins that we've had over the past year. So that's what's going on in our gross margin, and we'll see how it comes out, but that's our expectation.

我們預計今年或2023年，我們的產品組合將大幅轉向管線系統。這就是為什麼我們提到，我們正在討論開始交付一些過去一年中新贏得的項目。這就是我們毛利率目前的變化趨勢，最終結果如何，我們拭目以待，但這是我們的預期。

We do think that the exception costs will ease in terms of the percentage margin effects. But they're still going to be there, and that's going to impact gross margin. What we've said is that, that probably cost us 400 basis points or something like that last year. And it's going to cost us something like that, although maybe a little less in '23.

我們認為，特殊成本對毛利率的影響會有所緩解。但這些成本仍然存在，並且會對毛利率產生影響。我們之前說過，去年這大概讓我們損失了400個基點左右的毛利率。 2023年，損失可能也會差不多，儘管可能會略少。

And finally, I'll make the point that we are totally outsourced in terms of our manufacturer. And so our cost per unit is mostly variable. We don't have a lot of fixed cost in our gross margin. We do have some, and that helps when we get our volumes. But the biggest part of our cost structure is variable and varies per volume.

最後，我想強調一點，我們的生產完全外包。因此，我們的單位成本大部分是可變的。我們的毛利中固定成本佔比很小。雖然也有一些固定成本，這在銷售達到一定規模時會有所幫助，但我們成本結構中最大的部分是可變成本，並且會隨著銷售量而變化。

And for my follow-up, if I can sort of ask you about what's sort of embedded in terms of supply improvement in your fiscal '23 revenue guide? Because when we look at sort of -- even the average of 3Q and 4Q, you're above a $900 million run rate, and you're expecting that to go north of $1 billion.

我的後續問題是，能否請您談談貴公司在2023財年營收預期中，關於供應改善的具體安排？因為即使僅從第三季和第四季的平均值來看，貴公司的年化營收也超過了9億美元，而貴公司預計這一數字將超過10億美元。

Is that generally as you talked about more predictability from your suppliers, and the upside there could be being able to buy more from the open market? I'm just trying to understand what's embedded in the guide for supply? And what sort of downside or upside to that number can come from?

這是否如您所說，意味著供應商的供貨更可預測，而好處是可以從公開市場購買更多產品？我只是想了解供應指南的具體內容，以及這個數字可能帶來的優缺點？

Yes, Samik. So first of all, just starting with what we're seeing in the environment today and a little bit in the rearview mirror. Things are getting better gradually. People are delivering more reliably to their commitments, and they are delivering more components to us period-over-period. You saw that in our Q4 results, and you're seeing that in our Q1 guide.

是的，薩米克。首先，我們先來看看目前的情況，以及過去的情況。情況正在逐步改善。大家履行承諾的可靠性更高了，而且每季交付的零件數量也在增加。您在我們第四季的業績報告中看到了這一點，在第一季的業績指引中也能看到。

Looking forward, in terms of their commitments to us, they are committing more components to us going forward as well, and that's factored into our guide. In addition to that, we've talked in the past about a bunch of mitigation activities that we have control of, redesigning products to open up the aperture in terms of alternative design sources, building up a manufacturing capacity such that we can turn finished components and finished goods faster for our customers.

展望未來，就他們對我們的承諾而言，他們未來還會向我們提供更多零件，這一點已納入我們的指導方針。此外，我們過去也討論過一系列我們可控的緩解措施，例如重新設計產品以拓寬替代設計來源，以及提升生產能力，從而更快地為客戶提供成品零件和成品。

All those things will benefit us in '23. And we've taken that into account as well as the learnings of the variability that we've seen to try to give you a balanced view of where we think we're going to land from a supply and therefore, a revenue perspective in '23.

所有這些因素都將在 2023 年對我們有利。我們已經考慮到了這一點，以及我們所看到的各種變化，以便努力為您提供一個平衡的觀點，讓您了解我們認為在 2023 年從供應和收入角度來看我們將達到的水平。

Specifically, we assume that supply chain dynamics do not worsen. Specifically, we believe that component suppliers will largely deliver on their current supply commitments. And we do not expect to encounter any substantial new decommits that we cannot mitigate, given all the work we've done in our R&D group.

具體而言，我們假設供應鏈動態不會惡化。具體來說，我們相信零件供應商將基本履行其當前的供應承諾。鑑於我們研發團隊所做的一切努力，我們預計不會有任何我們無法應對的重大新違約情況。

Our next question comes from Alex Henderson with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Alex Henderson。

First question is on the mix assumptions for '23. Can you talk a little bit about the -- you've talked about $4.2 billion in backlog, but underneath the surface of that is also your service business, which doesn't show up in backlog but is related to additional shipments. So can you talk about the growth assumed in service versus product in the guide?

第一個問題是關於2023年的業務組合假設。您能否談談—您提到了42億美元的積壓訂單，但除此之外，還有您的服務業務，這部分業務雖然沒有體現在積壓訂單中，但卻與額外的出貨量相關。所以，您能否談談指南中對服務業務和產品業務成長的假設？

Well, services are in our backlog, Alex, just to be clear. When we get orders, we get orders for the product and related services. So it is in our backlog. The $4.2 billion includes a meaningful amount of services.

嗯，Alex，我必須說清楚，服務項目目前還在我們的待辦事項清單裡。我們接到訂單時，既包括產品訂單，也包括相關服務訂單。所以，服務項目目前都在我們的待辦事項清單裡。這42億美元裡包含了相當數量的服務項目。

I believe if you look at the various pieces of our services business, which we have maintenance, we have deployment, and then we have advanced services, we expect to see strong growth, stronger than average on the advanced services. We do probably -- we'll probably see higher-than-average demand on implementation because we did a lot of motives in the past year, and we expect that we'll have more line systems, which comes in many cases, with implementation. So those are the parts of the services portfolio that we think will grow faster than average. The maintenance, we think will grow, but probably in line with our product.

我認為，如果我們審視我們各項服務業務，包括維護、部署和高級服務，我們預計高級服務將實現強勁成長，成長速度將高於平均水準。我們預計實施方面的需求也會高於平均水平，因為我們去年完成了大量的實施工作，而且我們預計未來會有更多系統部署，這在許多情況下都與實施相關。因此，我們認為這些服務組合中的部分業務成長速度將高於平均水準。維護業務預計也會成長，但可能與我們的產品成長速度基本持平。

So would your services then be a double-digit growth rate or a single-digit growth rate? I'm just trying to gauge the mix for the year.

那麼，你們的服務成長率是兩位數還是個位數呢？我只是想估算一下今年的業務組成。

I don't think overall, we would be double digit -- I'm sorry, yes, we'll probably be double digits. Yes.

我覺得整體上我們不會達到兩位數——抱歉，是的，我們很可能會達到兩位數。是的。

Right around 10% is probably the right answer. The second question I have for you is relative to the backlog. $4.2 billion in backlog is an enormous number. If I take 17% growth, that's $617 million off of your '22 base.

大約10%左右可能是比較準確的答案。我的第二個問題與積壓訂單有關。 42億美元的積壓訂單是個天文數字。如果我以17%的成長率計算，那將比你2022年的基數減少6.17億美元。

So how much do you think the backlog will work down? And if the backlog is still, say, I don't know, $3 billion next year at the end of the year, doesn't that imply continued outsized backlog going into '24 and '25 even?

那你認為積壓訂單會減少多少？如果到年底積壓訂單仍高達30億美元，這是否意味著2024年和2025年積壓訂單仍將居高不下？

Very hard to predict where our backlog is going to be next year. It's going to be good, though. I can certainly expect that to be the case. Our backlog at the end of this year will depend upon what customer behavior is like, how our lead times change and of course, our deliveries during the year.

很難預測我們明年的訂單積壓情況。不過，情況應該會不錯。我對此很有信心。今年年底的訂單積壓情況將取決於客戶行為、交貨週期的變化，當然還有我們年內的交貨情況。

So it's just hard to predict that specific number on backlog, but it's going to be good. Now we said we're going to grow 10% to 12% average over the next 3 years, which implies higher than our previously stated growth for the long term in fiscal '24 and '25, not a lot higher but somewhat higher.

所以很難預測具體的積壓訂單數量，但情況會不錯。我們之前說過，未來三年平均成長率將達到10%到12%，這意味著高於我們先前公佈的2024財年和2025財年的長期成長率，雖然不會高出很多，但確實會略高一些。

Our next question comes from George Notter with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的喬治諾特。

Great to see the improvement in supply chain for you here. I was curious about what the expectations are for the Tibit and Benu acquisitions. I guess I'm wondering if they're significant piece of your revenue expectations for January and then also for the full year. And then also curious about what kind of cost structure comes with those acquisitions?

很高興看到貴公司供應鏈的改善。我很好奇貴公司對Tibit和Benu的收購有何預期。我想知道它們在貴公司1月以及全年的收入預期中佔比是否很大。另外，也想了解這些收購會帶來什麼樣的成本結構？

Yes. We don't expect to close on Tibit until sort of towards the end of this quarter. And Benu is not large in terms of revenue. So really nothing significant in Q1. As we move through the year, we'll see some from both of those, but it's less than a couple of percentage points of our revenue.

是的。我們預計要到本季末才能完成對 Tibit 的收購。而且 Benu 的營收規模也不大。所以第一季應該不會有什麼顯著的營收成長。隨著時間的推移，我們會從這兩家公司獲得一些營收，但佔比不到幾個百分點。

However, what it will do, the combination of those 2 acquisitions will help us as we attempt to build out our PON solutions and our position in that PON market. So we are very excited by it. And as far as the OpEx, it's in the sort of $20 million to $30 million of OpEx next year.

然而，這兩項收購的結合將有助於我們建構PON解決方案，並鞏固我們在PON市場的地位。因此，我們對此感到非常興奮。至於營運支出，預計明年將在2,000萬至3,000萬美元之間。

Got it. For the full year? Or is that -- that's not per quarter, I assume.

明白了。是全年的嗎？還是——我猜不是按季度算的。

Yes. Full year.

是的，整整一年。

Okay. Got it. Great. That makes sense. And then do you guys have a purchase commitment number out of curiosity for the end of the year?

好的，明白了。太好了，這說得通。另外，出於好奇，你們年底的採購承諾數量是多少？

We'll get you that. I don't have that right now, but I'll get it to you, George.

我們會給你拿的。我現在沒有，但我會盡快給你，喬治。

Our next question comes from Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Simon Leopold。

Just maybe first, a quick clarification on some of the metrics here. Gary, you said that backlog remained over $4 billion. I think last quarter, you talked about $4.4 billion. And I assume that certainly part of the whole sort of normalization process, we've got to begin to be working down backlog, so understandable.

首先，我想先澄清一下這裡的一些指標。蓋瑞，你說積壓訂單仍然超過40億美元。我記得上個季度你提到44億美元。我猜想，作為整個正常化過程的一部分，我們必須開始減少積壓訂單，這可以理解。

But I want to verify that backlog did come down by roughly $300 million to $400 million. And I assume orders this quarter were down year-over-year. Is that a metric you're able to share?

但我想確認一下積壓訂單是否真的減少了大約3億至4億美元。而且我假設本季的訂單量也比去年同期有所下降。您能否提供一下這個數據？

Yes. Yes, it's down about $200 million. So you're right, went from about $4.4 billion to about $4.2 billion. You're right, I would -- as Jim was saying, this should normalize over time. We're not going to continue to run with this kind of backlog, given the size of business we are and the growth that we're seeing even with I think we're going to have -- to the previous question, longer lead times for a while than we've all seen traditionally. So I expect us to have a longer backlog.

是的，下降了大約2億美元。所以你說得對，從大約44億美元降到了大約42億美元。你說得對，就像吉姆剛才說的，這種情況應該會隨著時間而恢復正常。考慮到我們目前的業務規模和成長速度，我們不能再繼續承受如此大的訂單積壓了。即便我認為——回到之前的問題——交貨週期會比以往更長，所以我預計訂單積壓的情況會持續一段時間。

I'll give you another interesting sort of statistic so far in Q1. We're off to a very strong start on orders in Q1. And in fact, despite the fact that we've upped our guidance in Q1, sort of midpoint of the range, about sort of [9 50], we still expect to build backlog in Q1. We're seeing very strong order flows already in the current quarter that we're in.

我再給大家介紹一下第一季至今的另一個有趣的數據。第一季的訂單開局非常強勁。事實上，儘管我們上調了第一季的業績預期（大約在區間中點，即950左右），我們仍然預計第一季會累積訂單。目前我們已經看到本季訂單量非常強勁。

And then in terms of my more substantive question, I wanted to see if you could elaborate on your thoughts on India as a market. I recall, I think it was 2018. It was, I think, just over 9% of revenue and slowed down subsequently. It seems very evident that India has changed for the mobile infrastructure suppliers.

接下來，我想問一個更實質的問題，希望您能詳細談談您對印度市場的看法。我記得大概是2018年，當時印度市場的收入佔比略高於9%，之後成長放緩。很明顯，印度市場對行動基礎設施供應商而言已經發生了變化。

I know you've got some operations there. If you could elaborate what you expect over the next 1 to 2 years from that region.

我知道你們在那裡有一些業務。能否詳細說明一下未來一到兩年內你們對該地區業務的預期？

Yes. India has been a big market for us. It's gone through some cycles, for sure. And I think -- I guess what's behind your question as well is it's now with the whole sort of 5G commitments that everybody has made -- going through a very bullish cycle for the next couple of years.

是的。印度一直是我們的重要市場。當然，它也經歷了一些週期性波動。而且我認為──我想你問題背後的真正意義也是──隨著各方對5G的投入，未來幾年印度市場將迎來一個非常強大的牛市。

And we have #1 market share in India, and we're very well positioned to take advantage of that growth. You're beginning to see that show up in the numbers. India, I think, off a fairly low number relative to where it's been, we're up about 30% year-on-year and a quarter change. And year-on-year in total is about 10% to 12% growth. So you're beginning to see that come back. I would expect that to be an outsized growth driver for Ciena for the next 1 to 3 years, absolutely.

我們在印度擁有第一的市場份額，並且我們已做好充分準備，把握這一成長機會。這一點已經開始體現在我們的業績數據中。我認為，儘管印度市場的初始成長幅度相對較低，但我們比去年同期成長了約30%，並且實現了季度環比成長。整體而言，年成長率約為10%至12%。因此，市場正在復甦。我預計，未來1至3年，印度市場將成為Ciena成長的主要驅動力，這點毋庸置疑。

And does it have a negative impact on your margin? Because the RAN vendors all talk about great revenue, but then dilutive to gross margin, neutral to operating margin. You're in a different business. I just want to make sure folks understand what it means to you from a profitability perspective as well.

那它會對你的利潤率產生負面影響嗎？因為無線接取網路（RAN）供應商都說收入會大幅成長，但會稀釋毛利率，對營業利潤率影響不大。你們的行業不一樣。我只是想確保大家也明白，從獲利的角度來看，這對你們意味著什麼。

Generally speaking, the way they do their project builds, yes, they put line systems out, which is generally lower margin. And we'll see a little bit of that, but they tend to build out quite quickly in terms of capacity.

總的來說，他們的專案建置方式是，確實會先推出生產線系統，這種模式利潤率通常較低。我們會看到一些這樣的情況，但他們的產能擴張速度往往很快。

So generally speaking, it's not dilutive to our overall margins. It may sort of ebb and flow quarter-to-quarter whatever. But generally speaking, I mean, it's consistent with our overall margins there.

所以總的來說，這不會稀釋我們的整體利潤率。它可能每個季度都會略有波動，但總體而言，我的意思是，它與我們的整體利潤率是一致的。

While we're waiting for the next question, I got the answer to George's question about purchasing commitments, it's $2.6 billion.

在我們等待下一個問題的時候，我已經得到了喬治關於採購承諾的問題的答案，金額為 26 億美元。

Our next question comes from Amit Daryanani with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Amit Daryanani。

Congrats on (inaudible). Maybe (inaudible) start off with as you think about fiscal '23 guidance, which is fairly robust, can you just talk about how do you think growth stacks up across the different verticals? And do you see as fast to going versus maybe a little bit slower, what's that 16% to 18% top line growth?

恭喜（聽不清楚）。或許（聽不清楚）可以先談談您對2023財年業績指引的看法，這份指引相當穩健。您能否談談您認為各個垂直領域的成長情況如何？您認為成長速度是會很快還是會稍慢？ 16%到18%的營收成長率究竟如何？

I would expect -- I mean, next year, FY '23, our balanced view is it's really all about supply and not specifically demand. So with that as a caveat, I'd say pretty strong demand across the board.

我預期──我的意思是，明年，也就是2023財年，我們比較中肯的看法是，關鍵在於供應，而不是需求。所以，考慮到這一點，我認為整體需求會相當強勁。

I think GCNs, I would highlight, has been very strong in terms of our revenue guide for the year. So I expect very strong growth from the overall web scalers.

我認為，就我們今年的營收預期而言，GCN（全球傳播網絡）表現非常強勁。因此，我預計整個網路規模化服務商都會實現非常強勁的成長。

I think certain geographies, we just talked about one, India, I expect to be strong. I expect to see strong growth in the cable space in North America.

我認為某些地區，例如我們剛才提到的印度，預計會表現強勁。我也預計北美有線電視市場將強勁成長。

Switching to routing, I would also highlight relative to -- we saw about 40% growth this year. Some of that was nonorganic. But we're seeing a lot of new wins in that space, as we talked about. So I think the -- there's various different applications and geographies that we think are going to be hot for the next year or so. Those are the ones that would come top of mind.

談到路由領域，我還想重點強調一下——我們今年實現了約 40% 的成長。其中一部分是外部成長。但正如我們之前討論的，我們在這個領域也取得了許多新的突破。所以我認為——未來一年左右，各種不同的應用和地區都將是熱門領域。這些是我們首先想到的。

And overall, we'll just again point out that demand for bandwidth globally continues to grow at outsized rates, 30-plus percent. That has been -- that growth rate has been really unaffected by whatever happens in the macroeconomic environment.

總而言之，我們再次強調，全球頻寬需求持續以超過30%的驚人速度成長。而且，這一成長率幾乎不受宏觀經濟環境任何變化的影響。

That's what we've seen for a long, long time. So our outlook for the year assumes based on our past experience that any effects in our business with respect to customers' CapEx or their ability to take their products from us are immaterial.

這種情況我們已經觀察了很久很久。因此，基於我們過去的經驗，我們對今年的展望假設，客戶資本支出或他們從我們這裡提貨的能力對我們業務的任何影響都微乎其微。

And that's really helpful. And then just a follow-up. How should we think about the cash flow generation into fiscal '23? And sort of, I guess, to some degree, do you think inventory levels have peaked and this has to trend lower? Just any parameters on how free cash flow would stack up in '23, would really helpful to understand that. And maybe explain that? Do you see a capital allocation evolving for that free cash flow hopefully improve next year?

這真的很有幫助。接下來我想問一個問題。我們該如何看待2023財年的現金流？您認為庫存水準是否已經達到峰值，並且會持續下降？任何關於2023年自由現金流狀況的參數都將非常有助於我們理解。能否解釋一下？您認為資本配置是否會隨著明年自由現金流的改善而調整？

Yes. We're not going to see an enormous amount of free cash flow in '23 partly because we're going to spend a couple of hundred million or so on acquisition of Tibit. Generally speaking, too, we don't expect that our inventory level is going to decline sharply this year. We could be wrong. I hope we're wrong. That would mean we ship more than we expect to ship now.

是的。 2023年我們預計不會有巨額自由現金流，部分原因是我們要花幾億美元收購Tibit。總的來說，我們預計今年的庫存水準不會大幅下降。當然，我們也可能判斷失誤。我希望我們判斷失誤。那樣的話，我們的實際出貨量就會超過目前的預期。

But we expect our inventory position to come down, just not as far as it will in subsequent years. So without giving a number today, I can just say that we're not going to be in the free cash flow generation mode that we have been in past years. We'll have free cash flow, of course, but it's just not going to be as big as it's been.

但我們預期庫存水準會下降，只是降幅不會像未來幾年那麼大。所以今天我無法給出具體數字，但我可以肯定的是，我們不會像過去幾年那樣持續產生大量自由現金流。當然，我們仍然會有自由現金流，但規模不會像以前那麼大了。

Our next question comes from Jim Suva with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的吉姆·蘇瓦。

Given the backlog and your strong guidance for fiscal '23, can you comment a little bit about seasonality? I would assume that seasonality, I mean, with COVID, it's been a long time since we have normal seasonality. But could you comment about seasonality for fiscal '23? I would assume the backlog and supply makes seasonality kind of less relevant?

鑑於目前的訂單積壓情況以及您對2023財年的強勁業績預期，您能否談談季節性因素？我想，受新冠疫情影響，我們已經很久沒有經歷正常的季節性波動了。能否談談2023財年的季節性狀況？我猜想，目前的訂單積壓和供應情況應該會讓季節性因素的影響相對較小吧？

Yes, Jim, I would -- yes, I mean that really is the answer to that. I think it is less relevant. It's interesting that we're seeing even stronger order flows in the Q1 that we're in right now. And typically, it would be lower.

是的，吉姆，我會——是的，我的意思是，這確實是答案。我認為這個問題不太重要。有趣的是，我們看到第一季的訂單量甚至更高。通常情況下，訂單量會更低。

So I think because of all the whipsaw of demand over COVID and the supply chain, I think those dynamics have kind of been thrown up in the air. And I think it's going to take a while before they kind of bed back down again, frankly, because people want to make sure that they're in the queue and that they are able to get the security of supply and even if it is further out.

所以我覺得，由於新冠疫情和供應鏈帶來的劇烈波動，這些動態都被打亂了。坦白說，我認為它們需要一段時間才能恢復穩定，因為人們都想確保自己排在前面，能夠獲得穩定的供應，即使這意味著要等更長時間。

So it's sort of uncharted territory for us in terms of the seasonality piece. The whole -- I mean, as I think about FY '23, just to sort of simplify it, it's really all about what we can ship and supply. It really is. That's going to be the cause of any ebbs and flows in the various quarters. It's all about supply.

所以，就季節性因素而言，這對我們來說算是未知領域。總的來說——我的意思是，就2023財年而言，簡單來說，一切都取決於我們能發貨和供應多少。確實如此。這將決定各季度業績的波動。一切都取決於供應。

If you take the midpoint following year, 22%, which is a little higher than what we've experienced for the long period of time. So that just sort of proves out what Gary is saying. It's all about how fast we can get components and deliver to customers, not so much the typical seasonal order pattern.

如果取隔年年中位數，即22%，這比我們長期以來經歷的水平略高。這正好印證了加里所說的。關鍵在於我們能否快速獲得零​​件並將其交付給客戶，而不是典型的季節性訂單模式。

And then my follow-up is, you mentioned backlog went from $4.4 billion to about $4.2 billion. And then earlier in the call, you mentioned that really, the upside to the quarter came late in the quarter. You got a fantastic month of October, outsized growth.

接下來我想問的是，您提到積壓訂單從44億美元降至約42億美元。而且在先前的電話會議中，您也提到本季業績的真正成長出現在季度末。 10月份的業績非常出色，實現了超預期的成長。

So is that fair to say that $200 million work down in backlog that we could actually see a faster work down in inventory -- I'm sorry, on backlog that you've progressed in the quarters ahead because it was kind of an outsized month for the quarter? Or how should we think about the cadence of the backlog?

所以，是否可以這樣說，2億美元的積壓工作量減少，實際上可能會加快庫存——抱歉，我是指你們在接下來的幾個季度中推進的積壓工作量——的減少速度，因為這個月的積壓工作量對於本季度來說有點異常龐大？或者我們應該如何看待積壓工作的進度？

I think it's very difficult for us to predict that, to be honest. And that's why I sort of shared with you what we're seeing in Q1. I actually think our backlog is going to go up in -- coming out of Q1. Even though we've upped our shipment and our revenue guide for Q1, I think midpoint was [8 70]. And I think we've just this morning shared midpoint would be about [9 50].

說實話，我覺得我們很難預測這一點。所以我才跟你們分享了我們第一季的觀察。實際上，我認為我們的積壓訂單在第一季末會增加。儘管我們提高了第一季的出貨量和收入預期，但我認為中間值是 8.70。而我們今天早上也提到，中間值大約是 9.50。

Even with that, we still think we're going to add backlog coming out of Q1. So I think it's just a testament to the, A, the strong demand characteristics that we're seeing across the board; and B, supply chain is improving, but lead times are still long.

即便如此，我們仍然認為第一季末的積壓訂單將會增加。所以我認為這正好證明了兩點：A，我們目前看到的強勁需求；B，供應鏈正在改善，但交貨週期仍然很長。

Our next question is from Catharine Trebnick with MKM Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 MKM Partners 的 Catharine Trebnick。

Excellent print. Can you describe the target markets you're specifically looking at with these 2 new acquisitions? It looks like you're trying to go more into the regional market, but just clarify that for me.

印刷效果很棒。您能否具體說明一下，您此次收購的目標市場是什麼？看起來您似乎想更拓展區域市場，能否請您再詳細說明一下？

Catherine, the 2 acquisitions from a solution perspective, I'll talk to are broadband access part of our portfolio, which is one of the key use cases we've talked to you about as part of our next-generation metro and edge TAM expansion. So anybody building our next-generation fiber access solutions would be the target market.

凱瑟琳，從解決方案的角度來看，我要談的這兩項收購都屬於我們的產品組合中的寬頻存取部分，這也是我們之前跟你討論過的下一代城域網路和邊緣運算市場拓展的關鍵用例之一。因此，任何建構我們下一代光纖接入解決方案的用戶都將是我們的目標市場。

There's lots of activity. Of course, some rural broadband funding that speaks to your Tier 2 opportunity, but there are also Tier 1s around the world that are looking at their architecture for their fiber build-outs as well. And we're attacking both of those spaces.

目前有很多活動正在進行。當然，一些農村寬頻資金支持了你們的二級市場機遇，但世界各地的許多一級市場也在審視其光纖網路建設架構。而我們正在同時開拓這兩個領域。

And then how much does this lift your total addressable market?

那麼，這能使您的潛在市場規模提升多少？

We were -- we had indicated with our focus on next-generation metro and edge that our TAM expansion had basically almost doubled, and we had talked about that in the past. This really is a part of securing a stronger solution portfolio set to go after that already announced expanded TAM.

我們之前已經證明，隨著我們專注於下一代城域網路和邊緣運算，我們的潛在市場規模（TAM）幾乎翻了一番，我們也曾討論過這一點。這實際上是為了確保我們能夠打造更強大的解決方案組合，從而更好地滿足先前已宣布的擴大的潛在市場需求。

Our question comes from Mike Genovese with Rosenblatt Securities.

我們的問題來自 Rosenblatt Securities 的 Mike Genovese。

I just wanted to clarify on the gross margin for this quarter that you reported, the strength. Was that really all mix towards modems? Or was it supply chain improvement? Is there not only better supply, but is it more -- coming at a more reasonable price than before?

我想就您報告的本季毛利率成長確認一下。這真的完全是因為調變解調器的銷售成長嗎？還是供應鏈的改善？不僅供應更充足，價格也比以前更合理了嗎？

Mostly mix. We did see some improvement from expectations in our, what we call, exception costs, which are a combination of logistics costs and the premium costs that we paid, but it's mostly mix.

整體來說，情況比較複雜。我們所謂的例外成本（包括物流成本和我們支付的額外費用）確實比預期有所改善，但總體來說，情況比較複雜。

Okay. And then just quickly, for this year, for '23, I didn't really hear a gross margin outlook for the full year. I got a revenue outlook for the full year, but I mean, should we think this year 43.6, I want them on consistently for this year. Is that fair?

好的。然後快速問一下，關於今年，也就是2023年，我沒聽到關於全年毛利率的預期。我得到了全年營收預期，但我的意思是，我們應該預期今年能達到43.6%嗎？我希望他們今年能保持這個水準。這樣說合理嗎？

We said 42 to 44 for the full year. Average it will be in low 40's in Q1.

我們預測全年平均氣溫在華氏42到44度之間。第一季平均氣溫將在華氏40度左右。

Our next question comes from David Vogt with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的David Vogt。

I know we've danced around sort of the backlog and the strength of the business question, but I want to maybe take a longer-term view and maybe pull back a little bit. If I look at your business back from, let's say, fiscal '19 before COVID, and I kind of run it forward through your '25 guidance, I think at the high end of your 3-year plan would suggest that your business would have grown at a 6% CAGR, which is kind of consistent with your model.

我知道我們一直在迴避積壓訂單和業務實力的問題，但我想從更長遠的角度來看待，稍微退一步。如果我回顧貴公司在新冠疫情爆發前的2019財年，並根據你們2025年的業績指引進行預測，我認為即使按照你們三年計劃的上限計算，你們的業務複合年增長率也應該達到6%，這與你們的模型基本一致。

I mean, is that the right way to think about it as we go through '23, '24 and '25, backlog normalizes, and we're back to sort of a normalized mid- to slightly better growth dynamic for the overall business?

我的意思是，隨著我們進入 2023 年、2024 年和 2025 年，積壓訂單恢復正常，整體業務的成長動態也恢復到某種正常的中等或略好一些的水平，這種想法是否正確？

I actually think that's a pretty good way of thinking about it because our market has been roiled very significantly over the past 3 years, and we're going to have outsized growth for the next 3. But I'd just say this, if you deconstruct the 10% to 12% average annual growth rate that we project for the next 3, and you say we're going to do -- we believe we're going to do 17% in '23, which is the midpoint of our guide, then the growth rates for the last 2 years are actually a bit higher than what we have called before.

我覺得這種思考方式挺好的，因為過去三年我們的市場經歷了非常劇烈的波動，未來三年我們將迎來超高速成長。但我只想說，如果我們把未來三年我們預測的10%到12%的年均增長率拆解開來，再說我們預計2023年將達到17%——這是我們預測的中點——那麼過去兩年的增長率實際上比我們之前預測的要高一些。

Remember, we've said 6% to 8% was our long-term growth rate for a great number of years now. So I think the business is strong now, and we have not just the fundamental growth that we've seen, but also the subsidies for broadband that is -- that are going in the U.S. and other places.

記住，多年來我們一直把6%到8%當作我們的長期成長率目標。所以我認為公司目前的業務狀況良好，我們不僅看到了已經實現的基本面成長，而且還受益於美國和其他地區正在推行的寬頻補貼。

Right. And maybe just a quick follow-up. I know you've talked about backlog being difficult to predict. But can you just share with us sort of what underpins the '24, '25 from a backlog perspective versus in-period orders and how you're thinking about that?

好的。還有一個後續問題。我知道您之前說過積壓訂單很難預測。但您能否從積壓訂單和當期訂單的角度，和我們分享一下您對2024年和2025年預測的依據是什麼，以及您是如何考慮這個問題的？

The '24, '25 is much more dependent upon orders that will come in over next year and the following years. '23 is we've got the backlog, frankly, to deliver '23, we just have to get the parts. So it's -- we assume that we're going to have good orders as we move through '23, '24 and '25, and that underpins our guide. The thing I didn't mention when I was talking about the outlook is our TAM is expanding. And that's something that we're attacking and with early good returns.

2024年和2025年的業績很大程度上取決於未來幾年（包括明年和後幾年）的訂單量。坦白說，2023年我們已經積壓了訂單，只要零件到位，就能準時交貨。所以，我們預計2023年、2024年和2025年的訂單量都會不錯，這也是我們業績指引的基礎。我在談到前景時沒有提到的一點是，我們的潛在市場規模（TAM）正在擴大。我們正在積極拓展這一市場，並且已經取得了初步的良好成效。

Thank you, David, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate the opportunity to speak with you. We wish you all a happy holiday, and happy new year. We're looking forward to connecting with you all over the next week or 2. Thank you. Have a good day.

謝謝大衛，也謝謝各位今天能來參加我們的節目。我們非常珍惜這次與大家交流的機會。祝大家節日快樂，新年快樂！期待在接下來的一兩週內與大家繼續保持聯繫。謝謝。祝您今天愉快！

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以斷開連線了。