Ciena Corp (CIEN) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ciena Fiscal Third Quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Ciena 2022 財年第三季度財務業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Gregg Lampf, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議交給你今天的演講者，投資者關係副總裁 Gregg Lampf。請繼續。

Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, and welcome to Ciena's Fiscal Third Quarter 2022 Results Conference Call. On the call today is Gary Smith, President and CEO; and Jim Moylan, CFO. Scott McFeely, our Senior Vice President of Global Products and Services, is also with us for Q&A. In addition to this call and the press release, we have posted in the Investors section of our website an accompanying investor presentation that reflects this discussion as well as certain highlighted items from the quarter.

謝謝你，米歇爾。早上好，歡迎參加 Ciena 2022 財年第三季度業績電話會議。今天的電話會議是總裁兼首席執行官 Gary Smith；和首席財務官 Jim Moylan。我們的全球產品和服務高級副總裁 Scott McFeely 也與我們一起進行問答。除了本次電話會議和新聞稿外，我們還在我們網站的投資者部分發布了一份隨附的投資者演示文稿，該演示文稿反映了此次討論以及本季度的某些重點項目。

Our comments today speak to our recent Q3 performance, our view on the current demand environment and supply chain conditions as well as discussion of our financial outlook. Today's discussion includes certain adjusted or non-GAAP measures of Ciena's results of operations. A detailed reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results is included in today's press release.

我們今天的評論涉及我們最近的第三季度業績、我們對當前需求環境和供應鏈狀況的看法以及對我們財務前景的討論。今天的討論包括對 Ciena 經營業績的某些調整或非公認會計原則的衡量。這些非公認會計原則措施與我們的公認會計原則結果的詳細核對包含在今天的新聞稿中。

Before turning the call over to Gary, I'll remind you that during this call, we'll be making certain forward-looking statements. Such statements, including our quarterly and annual guidance discussion of market opportunities and commentary about supply chain constraints on our business results are based on current expectations, forecasts and assumptions regarding the company and its markets which include risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements discussed today.

在將電話轉給 Gary 之前，我會提醒您，在這次電話會議期間，我們將做出某些前瞻性陳述。此類聲明，包括我們對市場機會的季度和年度指導討論以及對供應鏈限制對我們業務結果的評論，是基於對公司及其市場的當前預期、預測和假設，其中包括可能導致實際結果不同的風險和不確定性實質上來自今天討論的聲明。

Assumptions relating to our outlook, whether mentioned on this call or included in the investor presentation that will post shortly after are an important part of such forward-looking statements, and we encourage you to consider them. These statements should be viewed in the context of the risk factors detailed in our most recent 10-K filing and in our upcoming 10-Q filing, which is required to be filed with the SEC by September 8.

與我們的前景相關的假設，無論是在本次電話會議中提及還是包含在不久後發布的投資者演示文稿中，都是此類前瞻性陳述的重要組成部分，我們鼓勵您考慮這些假設。這些陳述應結合我們最近提交的 10-K 文件和即將提交的 10-Q 文件中詳述的風險因素來看待，該文件要求在 9 月 8 日之前向 SEC 提交。

We expect to file by that date. Ciena assumes no obligation to update the information discussed in this conference call, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. As always, we will allow for as much Q&A as possible today. So we do ask that you limit yourselves to one question and one follow-up.

我們希望在該日期之前提交。 Ciena 不承擔更新本次電話會議中討論的信息的義務，無論是由於新信息、未來事件或其他原因。與往常一樣，我們今天將允許盡可能多的問答。因此，我們確實要求您將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續行動上。

With that, I'll turn it over to Gary.

有了這個，我會把它交給加里。

Thank you, Gregg, and good morning, everyone. Today, we reported lower-than-expected fiscal third quarter financial performance, including revenue of $868 million and adjusted gross margin of 40%. In a moment, I will discuss the specific supply chain challenges that impacted our results and our continued actions to mitigate their effects on our customers and our business.

謝謝你，格雷格，大家早上好。今天，我們報告了低於預期的第三財季財務業績，包括 8.68 億美元的收入和 40% 的調整後毛利率。稍後，我將討論影響我們業績的具體供應鏈挑戰，以及我們為減輕其對客戶和業務的影響而採取的持續行動。

Before doing so, however, I think it's important to understand the context of the current environment as it relates to Ciena and specifically demand. Despite supply chain challenges and elongated lead times, strong secular demand trends show no signs of abating. And we remain confident that the fundamental macro drivers propelling this demand are durable over the long term.

然而，在這樣做之前，我認為了解當前環境的背景非常重要，因為它與 Ciena 相關，特別是需求。儘管供應鏈面臨挑戰並且交貨時間延長，但強勁的長期需求趨勢並沒有減弱的跡象。我們仍然相信，推動這一需求的基本宏觀驅動因素在長期內是持久的。

As we all know, these include 5G, cloud and automation in addition to infrastructure spending, residential broadband funding and opportunities to displace Huawei. Combination of these secular drivers and our market leadership, including our technology, investment capacity and global scale, is driving continued robust demand from customers in both absolute and relative measures.

眾所周知，除了基礎設施支出、住宅寬帶資金和取代華為的機會外，這些還包括 5G、雲和自動化。這些長期驅動因素與我們的市場領導地位（包括我們的技術、投資能力和全球規模）相結合，正在推動客戶在絕對和相對方面的持續強勁需求。

In fact, we had nearly 60% order growth in our last 4 quarters versus the same prior 4 quarter period. In Q3 specifically, orders outpaced revenue by more than 30%, and we continue to grow our backlog, which is now well over $4 billion. And we project further growth in our backlog in Q4.

事實上，與前 4 個季度相比，我們在過去 4 個季度的訂單增長了近 60%。特別是在第三季度，訂單超過收入的 30% 以上，我們的積壓訂單繼續增長，目前已超過 40 億美元。我們預計第四季度的積壓工作將進一步增長。

Obviously, as we convert this large backlog to revenue and continue to win new business and a strong demand environment, we have confidence in continuing to gain market share as the supply chain challenges ameliorate.

顯然，隨著我們將大量積壓轉化為收入並繼續贏得新業務和強勁的需求環境，隨著供應鏈挑戰的改善，我們有信心繼續獲得市場份額。

Now let me talk about supply chain. In the face of this strong demand, challenging supply chain conditions persist. I would like to note that at a high level, the majority of our suppliers are delivering to their promised, albeit extended, lead times, and we are also starting to see higher volumes.

現在讓我談談供應鏈。面對這種強勁的需求，充滿挑戰的供應鏈狀況依然存在。我想指出，在較高的水平上，我們的大多數供應商都在按承諾的交貨時間交付，儘管交貨時間有所延長，而且我們也開始看到更高的產量。

And I think this is sort of consistent with recent market commentary that has pointed to some signs of improvement in the overall supply environment. However, we have recently been challenged by the unpredictable performance of specific vendors and their associated componentry. When we spoke to you after our second quarter, our outlook for the remainder of the year reflected commitments made to us by our suppliers in early June, which a very small number of them did not need.

我認為這與最近的市場評論一致，這些評論指出了整體供應環境的一些改善跡象。然而，我們最近受到了特定供應商及其相關組件的不可預測性能的挑戰。當我們在第二季度之後與您交談時，我們對今年剩餘時間的展望反映了我們的供應商在 6 月初對我們做出的承諾，其中極少數人不需要。

Specifically, in the second half of our Q3, we experienced substantial delays and lower-than-expected component deliveries from this very small group of suppliers. These late notice decommits were primarily for certain integrated circuit components that represent a very small fraction of our overall materials.

具體來說，在我們第三季度的後半段，我們經歷了這一極少數供應商的大量延誤和低於預期的組件交付。這些遲到的通知主要是針對某些集成電路組件，這些組件僅占我們整體材料的一小部分。

However, these delays and decommits impede our ability to build and deliver finished goods and systems such as modems for our customers and our [ship] product for revenue. But another way, this relatively small number of low-cost, low-value components is holding up a disproportionate amount of revenue primarily for our optical modems. As a result, our Q3 revenue and adjusted gross margin were both negatively impacted to a significant degree.

然而，這些延遲和停產阻礙了我們為客戶構建和交付成品和系統（例如調製解調器）以及我們的 [ship] 產品以獲取收入的能力。但另一方面，數量相對較少的低成本、低價值組件主要為我們的光學調製解調器帶來了不成比例的收入。因此，我們的第三季度收入和調整後的毛利率都受到了很大程度的負面影響。

And to size this for you, but for this specific challenge, we would have been at the high end of our revenue range and in line with consensus gross margin expectations for Q3. I would also say that certain of these supply dynamics have continued into our fiscal fourth quarter and are expected to negatively impact our current quarter's results, which Jim will discuss shortly.

並為您調整規模，但對於這一特定挑戰，我們將處於收入範圍的高端，並符合第三季度的普遍毛利率預期。我還要說，其中某些供應動態已經持續到我們的第四財季，預計將對我們當前季度的業績產生負面影響，吉姆將很快討論這一點。

We remain very focused on our investments and actions to minimize the impact of these challenges on our customers. Firstly, we are working very closely with this small number of partners to resolve these acute challenges around delivery commitments and volumes; secondly, we continue to qualify engineering alternatives to expand our sources of supply and to pursue product redesign activities; and thirdly, we continue to invest in our readiness with respect to contract manufacturing capacity as well as our inventory levels to be prepared when these components do arrive.

我們仍然非常專注於我們的投資和行動，以盡量減少這些挑戰對我們客戶的影響。首先，我們正在與少數合作夥伴密切合作，以解決圍繞交付承諾和數量的這些嚴峻挑戰；其次，我們繼續對工程替代品進行認證，以擴大我們的供應來源並開展產品重新設計活動；第三，我們繼續投資於我們在合同製造能力方面的準備情況以及我們在這些組件到達時準備好的庫存水平。

As a reminder, we also continue to place large advanced purchase commitments in their various falls, a premiums and expedite fees and access the broker market to secure additional supply. While these actions have obviously been ongoing for a long time and their benefits take time to be fully realized, we believe that we will start to achieve an improvement in volume and predictability with our suppliers as we move into fiscal 2023.

提醒一下，我們還繼續在各種跌幅、溢價和加急費用中作出大量預購承諾，並進入經紀人市場以確保額外供應。雖然這些行動顯然已經持續了很長時間，而且它們的好處需要時間才能完全實現，但我們相信，隨著我們進入 2023 財年，我們將開始與供應商一起實現數量和可預測性的改善。

At the same time, it's important to stay focused on the investments that we're making in our long-term strategy to further open the aperture of our addressable market. Our portfolio and solutions offerings are at the heart of our customers' network priorities, and our innovation has never been stronger or more competitive than it is today, evidenced by the strong order flows.

與此同時，重要的是要繼續專注於我們在長期戰略中所做的投資，以進一步打開我們潛在市場的大門。我們的產品組合和解決方案產品是我們客戶網絡優先事項的核心，我們的創新從未像現在這樣強大或更具競爭力，強勁的訂單流就是明證。

In optical in Q3, we added 14 new customers for WaveLogic 5 Extreme, and despite the supply challenges, we had a record number a quarter for WaveLogic 5 shipments, bringing our total WaveLogic 5 Extreme modems shipped to date to more than 44,000. And for WaveLogic 5 Extreme specifically, Q3 was strong with North American Tier 1 service providers as well as web-scale customers.

在第三季度，我們為 WaveLogic 5 Extreme 增加了 14 個新客戶，儘管面臨供應挑戰，我們的 WaveLogic 5 出貨量仍創下季度記錄，使我們迄今為止的 WaveLogic 5 Extreme 調製解調器總出貨量超過 44,000 個。特別是對於 WaveLogic 5 Extreme，第三季度在北美 1 級服務提供商以及網絡規模的客戶中表現強勁。

Also in the quarter, we were awarded sole vendor status with a large international Tier 1 service provider for a major network upgrade. I would also say that our switching and routing revenue grew 45%, not all organic, year-over-year as we continue to capture additional opportunities and expand our TAM in this important area with a differentiated Adaptive IP approach, which is clearly resonating with customers.

同樣在本季度，我們獲得了一家大型國際一級服務提供商的獨家供應商地位，以進行重大網絡升級。我還要說，我們的交換和路由收入同比增長了 45%，而不是所有的有機收入，因為我們繼續抓住額外的機會，並通過差異化的自適應 IP 方法在這個重要領域擴展我們的 TAM，這顯然與顧客。

In Q3, we added 25 new adaptive IP customers, bringing the total to nearly 200 as customers continue to seek alternatives to many traditional legacy IP vendors. Of those new customers, many more wins in key new areas, including 5G xHaul, cell-site routing, residential broadband and in enterprise with the uCPE SD-WAN solutions.

在第三季度，我們增加了 25 個新的自適應 IP 客戶，使總數達到近 200 個，因為客戶繼續尋求許多傳統 IP 供應商的替代品。在這些新客戶中，更多的客戶在關鍵的新領域贏得了勝利，包括 5G xHaul、蜂窩站點路由、住宅寬帶以及使用 uCPE SD-WAN 解決方案的企業。

Of particular note is the momentum with our universal aggregation and PON solution where our customer count has grown significantly this year, and we are now expanding globally. Indeed, as you can see in our Q3 results, our routing and switching portfolio has not been impacted to the same extent by supply chain challenges, certainly when compared to our Converged Packet Optical segment. And I think this is consistent with some of the more positive recent commentary from others in the packet IP space.

特別值得注意的是我們的通用聚合和 PON 解決方案的勢頭，今年我們的客戶數量顯著增長，我們現在正在全球擴張。事實上，正如您在我們的第三季度業績中所看到的那樣，我們的路由和交換產品組合併沒有受到供應鏈挑戰的同等程度的影響，與我們的融合分組光纖業務相比當然是這樣。我認為這與最近其他人在數據包 IP 領域的一些更積極的評論是一致的。

Overall, we have tremendous momentum in the combination of significant secular demand drivers, our leading portfolio and our TAM expansion opportunities. The business has never been positioned better. As we are increasingly able to service the unprecedented demand, we are confident in our ability to continue to gain share and expand our addressable market.

總體而言，我們在重要的長期需求驅動因素、我們領先的投資組合和 TAM 擴張機會的結合方面擁有巨大的動力。該業務從未有過更好的定位。隨著我們越來越有能力滿足前所未有的需求，我們對繼續獲得份額和擴大潛在市場的能力充滿信心。

With that, I'll turn it over to Jim.

有了這個，我會把它交給吉姆。

Thank you, Gary. Good morning, everyone. As Gary mentioned, revenue in Q3 came in at $868 million, reflecting the impact from the late and incomplete delivery of key components by a small number of suppliers. Adjusted gross margin was 40% in Q3, which was at the low end of our range. Overall, gross margin continues to reflect the negative impact of higher component costs and expedite fees.

謝謝你，加里。大家，早安。正如 Gary 所說，第三季度的收入為 8.68 億美元，這反映了少數供應商延遲交付和不完整交付關鍵部件的影響。第三季度調整後的毛利率為 40%，處於我們範圍的低端。總體而言，毛利率繼續反映較高的組件成本和加急費用的負面影響。

In addition to that dynamic, in Q3, gross margin performance also reflects the specific supply chain in the quarter as the key components mentioned before, are primarily related to our higher-margin modem technology. Had it not been for the lack of those key components, revenue would have been approximately $60 million higher in the quarter and at the high end of our outlook range and adjusted gross margin would have been in line with expectations.

除了這種動態之外，第三季度的毛利率表現還反映了該季度的具體供應鏈，因為前面提到的關鍵組件主要與我們利潤率更高的調製解調器技術有關。如果不是因為缺少這些關鍵組件，本季度收入將增加約 6000 萬美元，處於我們展望範圍的高端，調整後的毛利率將符合預期。

Adjusted operating expense in the quarter was $273 million. This is below our expected range. During the quarter, we reduced our accrual rate for our annual incentive compensation plan given our expected financial performance for the year. With respect to profitability measures, in Q3, we delivered adjusted operating margin of 8.5%, adjusted net income of $49 million and adjusted earnings of $0.33 per share.

本季度調整後的運營費用為 2.73 億美元。這低於我們的預期範圍。在本季度，鑑於我們對本年度的預期財務業績，我們降低了年度激勵薪酬計劃的應計率。在盈利能力方面，我們在第三季度實現了 8.5% 的調整後營業利潤率、4900 萬美元的調整後淨利潤和 0.33 美元的調整後每股收益。

In addition, in Q3, cash used for operations was $205 million. Free cash flow was a use of $227 million and adjusted EBITDA was $96 million. We ended the quarter with approximately $1.3 billion in cash and investments. On the balance sheet, our current inventory levels reflect the current demand environment as well as the impact of the supply dynamics Gary mentioned. Since 2021, we have been ordering all of the components and subassemblies required to meet our backlog based upon vendor published lead times.

此外，在第三季度，用於運營的現金為 2.05 億美元。自由現金流使用了 2.27 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 9600 萬美元。我們在本季度結束時擁有大約 13 億美元的現金和投資。在資產負債表上，我們當前的庫存水平反映了當前的需求環境以及 Gary 提到的供應動態的影響。自 2021 年以來，我們一直在根據供應商公佈的交貨時間訂購滿足我們積壓訂單所需的所有組件和子組件。

And other than a handful of our vendors, the supply chain is delivering at 90% reliability. Lack of performance by that handful of vendors is preventing delivery to customers. Therefore, we are accumulating components while we wait for delivery of those specific remaining items that are necessary to produce finished goods. We expect our inventory levels to reduce over time as the delivery performance for these key components stabilizes. Finally, in Q3, we repurchased approximately 3.2 million shares for $155 million. We have now completed our goal of repurchasing $500 million in shares in fiscal 2022.

除了我們的少數供應商之外，供應鏈的可靠性達到 90%。少數供應商表現不佳，阻礙了向客戶交付。因此，我們在等待交付生產成品所需的特定剩餘物品時，正在積累組件。隨著這些關鍵部件的交付性能趨於穩定，我們預計我們的庫存水平會隨著時間的推移而降低。最後，在第三季度，我們以 1.55 億美元回購了大約 320 萬股股票。我們現在已經完成了在 2022 財年回購 5 億美元股票的目標。

With respect to guidance, as we said last quarter, in today's market environment, our revenue is not a function of demand. It is a function of supply. And as Gary said, and we repeat it, we have a very small number of suppliers that are not meeting their commitments or our expectations in terms of delivery times and volumes for a handful of low-cost, low-value parts. These decommits are having a disproportionate impact on our revenue. We saw that in Q3, and we are seeing these dynamics continue in Q4. As a consequence, in Q4, we expect to deliver revenue in a range of $800 million to $880 million.

關於指導，正如我們上個季度所說，在當今的市場環境中，我們的收入不是需求的函數。它是供給的函數。正如加里所說，我們重複一遍，我們有極少數供應商沒有履行他們的承諾或我們對少數低成本、低價值零件的交付時間和數量的期望。這些取消承諾對我們的收入產生了不成比例的影響。我們在第三季度看到了這一點，並且我們看到這些動態在第四季度繼續存在。因此，我們預計第四季度的收入將在 8 億美元至 8.8 億美元之間。

This range is lower than previously expected and incorporates a wider set of potential outcomes, reflecting our expectations for a continuation of key component supply challenges in the quarter. Adjusted gross margin of approximately 40%. We expect similar dynamics to impact gross margin in Q4, including lower modem volume and continued higher component costs and logistics expenses.

該範圍低於先前的預期，並包含更廣泛的潛在結果，反映了我們對本季度關鍵零部件供應挑戰的持續預期。調整後毛利率約為40%。我們預計類似的動態將影響第四季度的毛利率，包括較低的調製解調器數量以及持續較高的組件成本和物流費用。

And finally, adjusted OpEx of approximately $315 million. This reflects a return to more normalized levels from the atypical Q3. Q3, as I remind you, was below our original outlook due to the reduction in the accrual rate for our annual incentive compensation plan.

最後，調整後的運營支出約為 3.15 億美元。這反映了從非典型的第三季度回歸到更加正常化的水平。正如我提醒您的那樣，由於我們的年度激勵薪酬計劃的應計率降低，第三季度低於我們最初的展望。

Additionally, in Q4, we expect a higher level of variable sales compensation, reflecting the extraordinary level of demand we've described. For the year, we will be approximately on the guide we gave at the beginning of the year, absent the changes in our annual incentive compensation plan, which I discussed.

此外，在第四季度，我們預計可變銷售薪酬水平會更高，這反映了我們所描述的非凡需求水平。今年，我們將大致在年初給出的指導上，沒有我討論過的年度激勵薪酬計劃的變化。

As we look to next year, we remain set up well for outsized growth next year and continue to expect to deliver revenue growth significantly above our annual long-term target of 6% to 8%. The strong demand environment and our backlog reinforced our confidence in these expectations for fiscal year '23. And our current revenue expectations for 2023 remain at the level we referenced when we reported Q2 90 days ago.

展望明年，我們仍然為明年的超額增長做好準備，並繼續預計收入增長將大大高於我們 6% 至 8% 的年度長期目標。強勁的需求環境和我們的積壓工作增強了我們對 23 財年這些預期的信心。我們目前對 2023 年的收入預期保持在我們 90 天前報告第二季度時所參考的水平。

With that, we'll now take questions from the sell-side analysts. Michelle?

有了這個，我們現在將回答賣方分析師的問題。米歇爾？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

The first question comes from George Notter with Jefferies.

第一個問題來自 George Notter 和 Jefferies。

I guess just sort of stepping back and looking at the bigger picture here. Can you talk about how you're dealing with these issues in terms of customer conversations? I guess one thing I'm curious about is just on a relative basis, it seems like you guys are doing worse vis-a-vis your competition in terms of deliveries here. And I'm kind of wondering, is this going to impact long-term market share, long-term opportunity for Ciena? Like how permanent do you think the damage is here in terms of your customer relationships?

我想只是退後一步，看看這裡的大局。您能談談您如何從客戶對話的角度來處理這些問題嗎？我想我很好奇的一件事只是相對而言，在交付方面，你們似乎比你們的競爭對手做得更差。我有點想知道，這是否會影響 Ciena 的長期市場份額和長期機會？就您的客戶關係而言，您認為這種損害有多持久？

So George, let me take that. I mean, I think, listen, we've got very close relationships with all of our customers, many of which go back -- some of which go back decades. So I think we have strong degrees of trust and transparency with them.

所以喬治，讓我接受。我的意思是，我認為，聽著，我們與所有客戶都有非常密切的關係，其中許多可以追溯到幾十年前——其中一些可以追溯到幾十年前。所以我認為我們對他們有很強的信任和透明度。

And we can only talk about what we see in terms of the challenges from a supply chain point of view and the difficulties that we're encountering that, but we're being very transparent with them. And I think the best way of sort of answering that in summary, George, is really we're continuing to see very robust orders. We've not seen cancellations. We've seen orders continue to well outstrip revenue and the statistic that I kind of shared about 60% year-on-year order growth for the last 4 quarters, that's sort of a testament to it.

我們只能從供應鏈的角度談論我們所看到的挑戰以及我們遇到的困難，但我們對它們非常透明。我認為喬治，總而言之，回答這個問題的最佳方式是我們確實繼續看到非常強勁的訂單。我們還沒有看到取消。我們已經看到訂單繼續遠遠超過收入，而我在過去 4 個季度分享了約 60% 的同比訂單增長的統計數據，這在某種程度上證明了這一點。

And they understand the challenges that we're having. But I think because of our technology and our relationships, we believe that when all of the smoke clears from all of this and begins to ameliorate that we will actually gain share given the outsized demand that we see.

他們了解我們面臨的挑戰。但我認為，由於我們的技術和我們的關係，我們相信，當所有這些煙消雲散並開始改善時，鑑於我們看到的巨大需求，我們實際上將獲得份額。

I'm going to comment on the vendor side, George. On the vendor side, I can tell you that we do see some improvement on most components. In fact, for the majority of our vendors for everyone except these key components that we're talking about, we're seeing about a 90% deliverability performance against promised lead time, which is pretty good. So we're focused, of course, on this very small number, less than a handful of vendors that are not delivering.

我要評論供應商方面，喬治。在供應商方面，我可以告訴你，我們確實看到大多數組件都有一些改進。事實上，對於我們的大多數供應商來說，除了我們正在談論的這些關鍵組件之外，我們看到在承諾的交付週期內交付性能達到了 90%，這非常好。因此，當然，我們專注於這個非常小的數量，而不是少數沒有交付的供應商。

In fact, they've been quite unreliable and have caused us great difficulty. We're dealing with them appropriately at all levels of the company. We are hoping that, that performance improves as we move through time. And in the meantime, we're taking a lot of steps to deal with in case it doesn't, such as respecified parts on our boards, et cetera.

事實上，它們一直很不可靠，給我們帶來了很大的困難。我們在公司的各個層面都在適當地與他們打交道。我們希望，隨著時間的推移，性能會有所提高。與此同時，我們正在採取很多措施來處理以防萬一，例如我們板上重新指定的部件等等。

Yes. That's what I wanted to ask about. So where are you in the process of redesigning these components out? How many components specifically are we talking about? When might those redesigns be done? Just give us any more detail there, that would be great.

是的。這就是我想問的。那麼，您在重新設計這些組件的過程中處於什麼位置？我們具體討論了多少個組件？什麼時候可以完成這些重新設計？只要給我們更多的細節，那就太好了。

George, it's Scott. So just in terms of dimensioning it, as Jim said, the vast majority of the supply chain is pretty much delivering to their promises. We're talking about a very focused set of components here. And to put it in perspective, when we say that it's a couple of handfuls of component parts on a handful of vendors. Obviously, we have a significant amount of redesign work going on as a vehicle to get at those problem components in addition to working with the existing component suppliers to get a better answer out of them as well.

喬治，是斯科特。因此，正如吉姆所說，就其規模而言，絕大多數供應鏈都在兌現他們的承諾。我們在這裡討論的是一組非常集中的組件。從長遠來看，當我們說它是少數供應商的少數幾個組件時。顯然，除了與現有組件供應商合作以從他們那裡獲得更好的答案之外，我們還有大量的重新設計工作作為解決這些問題組件的工具。

On the design side, George, they fall into 2 categories. One is a sourcing exercise where you may be able to find alternative components that are plug replaceable. In that case, you still have to get in line to lead times from those component providers, but it's a less of a heavy lift on our side. The second category, of course, is where you need to redesign in order to take advantage of those component parts and those are hardware redesigns and those are multi-quarter activities. All of that activity, I think, starts to come on board in 2023, and we'll start to see gradual benefit from that as we go throughout the year in addition to continuing to work with the existing component suppliers.

在設計方面，喬治，它們分為兩類。一個是採購練習，您可以在其中找到可更換插頭的替代組件。在這種情況下，您仍然必須按照這些組件供應商的交貨時間排隊，但這對我們來說並不是一件容易的事。當然，第二類是您需要重新設計以利用這些組件的地方，這些是硬件重新設計，這些是多季度活動。我認為，所有這些活動都將在 2023 年開始實施，除了繼續與現有組件供應商合作之外，我們將開始看到隨著全年的逐步受益。

And to be clear, again, this handful of suppliers has been very reliable in the past. This is a new phenomenon. Of course, we're in unusual times. But when we have spoken to guidance in past quarters, we have always based our expectations of revenue upon their published lead times and the fact that they have met those lead times in the past. So that's how we came up with our view of the world. And that's why we've guided where we have.

再次明確的是，這少數供應商過去一直非常可靠。這是一個新現象。當然，我們正處於不尋常的時期。但是，當我們在過去幾個季度與指導進行交談時，我們總是將我們對收入的預期建立在他們公佈的交貨時間以及他們過去滿足這些交貨時間的事實之上。所以這就是我們提出我們的世界觀的方式。這就是為什麼我們在我們擁有的地方進行指導。

And a number of those vendors, George, they supply multiple parts to us. And in many cases, many of their parts are performing as they promised. This is a very focused subset.

其中一些供應商，喬治，他們向我們提供多個零件。在許多情況下，他們的許多部分都按照他們的承諾執行。這是一個非常集中的子集。

Our next question comes from Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Meta Marshall。

Great. Maybe just kind of jumping on George's question. Is there a way to size kind of the impact of products already redesigned, so we can just get a sense that given that we're a year through this that you've already redesigned and that's made x number of revenue available just to kind of balance out some of the downdraft that we're seeing.

偉大的。也許只是跳到喬治的問題上。有沒有辦法衡量已經重新設計的產品的影響，所以我們可以感覺到，鑑於我們已經完成了一年，你已經重新設計了，這使得 x 數量的收入可用於某種平衡我們看到的一些下行趨勢。

And the second piece would be just as you kind of continue to express confidence of this goal '23, I mean, what are you basing kind of that confidence on would be helpful.

第二部分就像你繼續表達對這個目標的信心'23，我的意思是，你的信心是基於什麼會有幫助的。

Why don't I answer that second part first, Meta. We're basing that confidence on, first of all, incredible visibility and backlog. So that's number one; number two, the actions that we've taken, which are multifaceted, and we try to get out ahead of this. This is not a reactive piece. I mean, we've talked about this for a while. We knew that demand was going to increase substantially this year, and we planned, as we shared with you, for a well double-digit growth this year, and we took a lot what we thought were the right supply chain actions in place for that in terms of placing orders, in terms of actually engineering work to reduce our dependency.

為什麼我不先回答第二部分，Meta。我們的信心首先是基於令人難以置信的知名度和積壓。所以這是第一；第二，我們採取的行動是多方面的，我們試圖在這之前擺脫困境。這不是一個反應片。我的意思是，我們已經討論了一段時間了。我們知道今年的需求將大幅增加，正如我們與您分享的那樣，我們計劃今年實現兩位數的增長，為此我們採取了很多我們認為正確的供應鏈行動在下訂單方面，在實際工程工作方面，以減少我們的依賴。

Those things start, I think, to kick in as we come out of this year into '23. And whilst we're cautious given the impact that we're seeing both in Q3 and Q4, we believe that they will ameliorate from the actions that we've taken and the work that our partners are doing also to ameliorate the issues. So we have very good confidence as we turn the year that this will start to improve. It won't be an on-off switch. It will be a process that improves as we start in Q1, but it does give us confidence in the year as we start to -- we grow out of this.

我認為，當我們從今年進入 23 年時，這些事情就開始了。儘管考慮到我們在第三季度和第四季度看到的影響，我們持謹慎態度，但我們相信他們會從我們已採取的行動以及我們的合作夥伴為改善這些問題所做的工作中得到改善。因此，我們非常有信心在今年開始改善這種情況。它不會是一個開關。隨著我們從第一季度開始，這將是一個改進的過程，但它確實讓我們對開始的那一年充滿信心——我們從中成長。

And Meta, just to give you some sizing on the activities. If you look at our total component of materials, if you like, for the entire portfolio, we've had multi-sourcing activities. In other words, qualifying alternative parts that adds about 10% to our approved vendor list, obviously focused on the challenge areas. The timing challenge with that, of course, is when you identify a new component, you get -- there are new orders and you get in line on their lead times.

Meta，只是為了給你一些活動的規模。如果您查看我們的材料總組件，如果您願意，對於整個產品組合，我們進行了多源採購活動。換句話說，合格的替代零件在我們批准的供應商名單中增加了約 10%，顯然集中在挑戰領域。當然，時間上的挑戰是當你確定一個新組件時，你會得到 - 有新訂單，你會按照他們的交貨時間排隊。

So now those activities were ongoing throughout 2022. The lead times in the industry would suggest that those are going to start to come and have an impact on our ability a wider aperture, if you like, for the supply components in '23.

因此，現在這些活動在整個 2022 年都在進行。行業的交貨時間表明，這些活動將開始出現，並影響我們在 23 年供應組件的能力，如果您願意，可以擴大口徑。

On the redesign side, we've got multiple tens of redesign activities on the go right now, which is probably about 10x more than we would have in a normal year. All of those are in front of us. Those are all 2023 impacts because they really are hardware redesigned. So they will help in '23 as well. And maybe to put another way to look at it, if those problems didn't exist on that very small handful of components, we would have had revenue in the range of our original yearly guide and then some just on those -- just on alleviating those small number of components. Hopefully, that helps dimension it (inaudible).

在重新設計方面，我們現在正在進行數十項重新設計活動，這可能是我們正常年份的 10 倍。所有這些都在我們面前。這些都是 2023 年的影響，因為它們確實是經過重新設計的硬件。所以他們也會在 23 年提供幫助。也許換個角度來看，如果這些問題在極少數組件上不存在，我們的收入將在我們最初的年度指南範圍內，然後一些只是在那些 - 只是為了減輕那些少量的組件。希望這有助於確定它的尺寸（聽不清）。

Our next question comes from Paul Silverstein with Cowen & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen & Company 的 Paul Silverstein。

Guys, what did backlog increased to exactly? I heard you say it was significantly greater than $4 billion, but what was the sequential increase? What was the book-to-bill this quarter, if I remember, it was 1.5 or over 1.5 last quarter. What was it this quarter? And do you...

伙計們，積壓到底增加了多少？我聽說你說它明顯超過 40 億美元，但環比增長是多少？如果我記得的話，這個季度的賬面比是多少，上個季度是 1.5 或超過 1.5。這個季度是什麼？而你...

Go ahead. I'll ask the next question...

前進。我會問下一個問題...

Ask your second question as well, Paul.

保羅，也問你的第二個問題。

I see headcount was up almost 500 sequentially, that's massive relative to the total headcount, and it's more than we've seen in a long time. What's that all about?

我看到員工人數連續增加了近 500 人，這相對於總人數而言是巨大的，而且比我們長期以來看到的還要多。那是怎麼回事？

So let me take the first part of that, and then Jim can talk about the headcount growth. The revenue to orders, orders were about 30% above revenue in Q4 -- sorry, in Q3. We expect as well the orders to be above revenue in Q4. So we're going to create more backlog. The backlog as we turn out right now is about -- is approximately $4.4 billion, Paul.

所以讓我先談談第一部分，然後吉姆可以談談員工人數的增長。訂單收入，訂單收入比第四季度的收入高出約 30%——對不起，在第三季度。我們也預計第四季度的訂單將高於收入。所以我們要創建更多的待辦事項。保羅，我們現在發現的積壓訂單大約是 - 大約 44 億美元。

I apologize, Gary. That was up from the previous quarter?

我道歉，加里。這比上一季度有所上升？

Yes. Yes, yes. Absolutely. Yes. It's up a few hundred million, yes.

是的。是的是的。絕對地。是的。漲了幾億，是的。

Yes. And before -- go ahead, Jim. Go ahead.

是的。之前——繼續，吉姆。前進。

We're going to limit you 2 questions, Paul. So I just want to.

我們將限制你 2 個問題，保羅。所以我只想。

Well, Jim, before you respond, let me -- because those were just clarification. The real question is relative to the order and the backlog, what's the risk for [Ciena] you say you're just masking weakness by laying off on supply chain. What's the risk -- with respect to the robust orders and backlog, what's the risk that, that's a function of customers not willing to step that a line on orders. And for that matter, they continue to place orders with both of them being related to the fact that supply chain remains so tight. And that real demand is not reflected by what nominally appears to be extremely strong orders in the backlog?

好吧，吉姆，在你回應之前，讓我——因為這些只是澄清。真正的問題與訂單和積壓有關，你說你只是通過削減供應鏈來掩蓋弱點，對 [Ciena] 有什麼風險。風險是什麼——就強勁的訂單和積壓而言，風險是什麼，這是客戶不願意在訂單上踩到這條線的功能。就此而言，他們繼續下訂單，這與供應鏈仍然如此緊張有關。實際需求並沒有反映在積壓中名義上看起來非常強勁的訂單上？

I would answer the question like this, Paul, your second question of 3. I would answer it like this. Yes, the order book is made up of sort of 3 elements in my view. One is a little bit of catch up from all the COVID time, but that's sort of flushed through to a large extent right now. Do you have a little bit of forward ordering because of supply chain lead times and the rest of it? Yes, it's nowhere near what you imagine that might be. It's -- that's very much with certain customers who absolutely want to secure next year's revenue, and we have some orders that are scheduled for next year for 2023. That is not the majority of the backlog. The vast majority of the backlog customers would take immediately because they have real needs. And I think what we're seeing is a very strong step function in demand unfortunately, at a time where we've got a constrained supply chain.

我會這樣回答這個問題，保羅，你的第二個問題是 3。我會這樣回答。是的，在我看來，訂單簿由 3 個元素組成。一個是從所有 COVID 時間中趕上來的，但現在在很大程度上已經過時了。由於供應鏈提前期和其他原因，您是否有一點提前訂購？是的，它與你想像的相去甚遠。這是 - 對於某些絕對希望確保明年收入的客戶來說，這是非常重要的，我們有一些訂單計劃在明年 2023 年。這不是積壓的大部分。絕大多數積壓客戶會立即接受，因為他們有真正的需求。而且我認為，不幸的是，在我們的供應鏈受到限制的時候，我們看到的是需求非常強勁的階梯函數。

So if you look at the actual demand of our customers, they would roll this product into their network very quickly and put traffic on it. So I'm very comfortable that the demand characteristics there and what we're seeing in our large backlog is not just a function of mitigating their supply chain lead times. There's some of that, for sure, with 1 or 2 customers. Most of it, they would absolutely take the equipment. So we take a lot of comfort from that.

因此，如果您查看我們客戶的實際需求，他們會非常迅速地將這個產品引入他們的網絡並在其上投放流量。因此，我很高興那裡的需求特徵以及我們在大量積壓中看到的不僅僅是縮短供應鏈交貨時間的功能。當然，其中有一些，只有 1 或 2 個客戶。大多數情況下，他們絕對會拿走設備。所以我們從中得到了很多安慰。

And we know them very well. We speak to them every day. We know that their system, their networks need this gear. And we've had no -- essentially no order cancellations. So we don't think there's a significant risk there. On the people side, our headcount is generally in line with the plan we set out at the beginning of the year. Recall that I said that absent the changes to the accrual rate for our incentive compensation plan for the company, our OpEx would be approximately what we guided at the beginning of the year, which was approximately our plan. So it's well in keeping with what we plan to do.

我們非常了解他們。我們每天都與他們交談。我們知道他們的系統，他們的網絡需要這個設備。而且我們沒有 - 基本上沒有取消訂單。所以我們認為那裡沒有重大風險。在人員方面，我們的員工人數與年初制定的計劃基本一致。回想一下，我說過，如果我們的公司激勵薪酬計劃的應計率沒有變化，我們的 OpEx 將大約是我們在年初指導的，這大約是我們的計劃。所以這很符合我們的計劃。

And as we've said in the past, we do think that as networks converge across a few layers then it's very important that we add to our capability in the routing and switching layers of the network. We are, of course, the best in the world in optical. We think that we will have the best converged solution as we develop these capabilities.

正如我們過去所說，我們確實認為隨著網絡在幾層上融合，那麼我們在網絡的路由和交換層中增加我們的能力是非常重要的。當然，我們在光學領域是世界上最好的。我們認為，隨著我們開發這些功能，我們將擁有最佳的融合解決方案。

In order to develop those capabilities, we have to bring people into our R&D shops around the world. We have to bring people into our sales force in order to sell these capabilities. So that's why the head count has grown. I think it will probably -- it's not going to grow at that level next year, I would say. I think we are just about at the level that we need to be.

為了發展這些能力，我們必須讓人們進入我們在世界各地的研發中心。為了推銷這些能力，我們必須將人員帶入我們的銷售隊伍。所以這就是人數增加的原因。我認為它可能會 - 我會說明年不會增長到那個水平。我認為我們正處於我們需要達到的水平。

So the bulk of those people are going through...

所以這些人中的大部分正在經歷...

R&D and sales.

研發和銷售。

For routing and switching.

用於路由和交換。

Generally, yes, not all, but generally, yes.

一般來說，是的，不是全部，但一般來說，是的。

I'd say routing and switching, Paul, but also the off-box software capabilities to manage those forward-looking solutions as well.

我會說路由和交換，Paul，還有用於管理這些前瞻性解決方案的開箱即用軟件功能。

The next question comes from Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Simon Leopold 和 Raymond James。

Two for me as well. First one is -- we've seen the 5G awards for spectrum in India occurring. And really recall that in the past, you've had some very strong business in India. And if you could maybe talk about what you're seeing in terms of that particular opportunity and what you're expecting in fiscal '23 in terms of contributions from the region? And then I'll ask my follow-up after.

兩個對我來說也是如此。第一個是 - 我們已經看到印度的頻譜 5G 獎項正在發生。真的記得過去，你在印度有過一些非常強大的業務。如果你能談談你在這個特定機會方面所看到的，以及你在 23 財年對該地區的貢獻的期望？然後我會問我的後續行動。

Simon, yes. No, we're seeing very strong cyclical activity in India after a very challenging set of years. We are incredibly well placed there with all of the major players and including all the web-scale, it's very focused area for the major web-scale players to the fastest Internet growth country in the world.

西蒙，是的。不，在經歷了非常具有挑戰性的幾年之後，我們看到印度的周期性活動非常強勁。我們在所有主要參與者那裡都處於非常有利的位置，包括所有網絡規模，這是主要網絡規模參與者對世界上互聯網增長最快的國家非常關注的領域。

You could see now things are very turbulent given all the supply chain challenges, but we were up pretty robustly in the quarter and in fact, 44%, from a revenue point of view, I wouldn't sort of bear too much to that because you've got ebbs and flows, largely driven by supply chain at this moment in time. But I think it is a moniker around the growth that we see there, and we expect a very robust 2023 in India, driven by all of the spectrum stuff with Jio and Bharti, et cetera.

鑑於所有供應鏈挑戰，您現在可以看到情況非常動盪，但我們在本季度的增長非常強勁，事實上，從收入的角度來看，增長了 44%，我不會對此承受太多，因為你有潮起潮落，這在很大程度上是由此時此刻的供應鏈驅動的。但我認為這是我們在那裡看到的增長的一個綽號，我們預計印度 2023 年將非常強勁，這將受到 Jio 和 Bharti 等所有頻譜資源的推動。

Great. And then on my follow-up, I hate to talk more about supply chain, but I need to get a better understanding of these sort of low-end parts that ended up being the constraints. Are these parts that are unique to the vendors and therefore, you did not have an option to multi-source and that's what's leading to redesign? Or was there some misstep on your part that you didn't multi-source because these seem to be readily available parts? I just need to understand a little bit better about this particular component you're talking about.

偉大的。然後在我的後續行動中，我不想更多地談論供應鏈，但我需要更好地了解這些最終成為製約因素的低端部件。這些零件是否是供應商獨有的，因此您沒有選擇多源的選項，這就是導致重新設計的原因？或者您是否有一些失誤，因為這些似乎是現成的零件，您沒有多源？我只需要更好地了解您正在談論的這個特定組件。

Sorry, sorry, sorry. I categorize some of those multi-industry low-cost ICs that we've used in that family for many years across many generations of our products and have been very consistent in terms of their availability. Challenges are unique. And yes, in perfect hindsight, I wish we had design multi-sourcing there. Of course, we have. But frankly, going back a year that wouldn't be the area of the product portfolio we would have concentrated our multi-sourcing activities on because it's been a very reliable part of the supply chain ecosystem in the past.

對不起，對不起，對不起。我對我們在該系列中使用多年的一些多行業低成本 IC 進行了分類，這些 IC 在我們的多代產品中使用了很多年，並且在可用性方面非常一致。挑戰是獨一無二的。是的，事後看來，我希望我們在那裡有設計多源。當然，我們有。但坦率地說，回到過去一年，我們將集中我們的多源採購活動，因為它在過去一直是供應鏈生態系統中非常可靠的一部分。

As we sit here now, obviously, we are working on those multi-source activities, both in terms of alternative sources that can be plug replaceable. Those are far few and far between, but also the physical redesigns of the boards to be able to accept multiple alternatives.

顯然，當我們坐在這裡時，我們正在開展這些多源活動，無論是在可插入更換的替代源方面。這些是非常少見的，而且電路板的物理重新設計能夠接受多種替代方案。

Our next question comes from Alex Henderson with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Alex Henderson。

Great. I want to go back, I guess, like mindset kind of situation. I want to go back to the cancellation question. Clearly, you haven't seen cancellations in the current environment that wouldn't make a lot of sense, people accelerating orders and then canceling them. But can you talk about your history of cancellations. If you go back over the last recession, what kind of cancellation did you see in that environment?

偉大的。我想回去，我想，就像心態一樣的情況。我想回到取消問題。顯然，您還沒有看到在當前環境中沒有什麼意義的取消，人們加速訂單然後取消它們。但是你能談談你的取消歷史嗎？如果你回顧上一次經濟衰退，你在那種環境中看到了什麼樣的取消？

Have you had -- it's my understanding that your net cancellation rate is something under 1% in pretty much every quarter in the history of the company. Is that accurate? And to what extent does the order require the service provider or other vendor to do a lot of work before they put the order and to set the RFP up, which makes it expensive for them to consult.

你有沒有 - 據我了解，在公司歷史上幾乎每個季度，你的淨取消率都低於 1%。那準確嗎？以及訂單在多大程度上要求服務提供商或其他供應商在下訂單和設置 RFP 之前做大量工作，這使得他們諮詢的成本很高。

And then the second piece of that is Jim, how -- what's going on with your pricing? You talked about price increases before. Is that something that reduces the risk of cancellation?

然後第二部分是吉姆，你的定價是怎麼回事？你之前談過漲價。這是否可以降低取消的風險？

Yes. Just historically, Alex, our order cancellation rate has been well under 1%. In fact, I can think of a handful of cases in the past in which we've seen order cancellations. It's just not done because by and larger customers order this year because they need it. Not by and large 100%. That's why they order the stuff. They don't buy it on -- in the hope that they'll need it.

是的。就歷史而言，亞歷克斯，我們的訂單取消率遠低於 1%。事實上，我可以想到過去我們看到訂單取消的少數案例。它只是沒有完成，因為今年越來越多的客戶訂購是因為他們需要它。大體上不是 100%。這就是他們訂購這些東西的原因。他們不買它——希望他們會需要它。

So when they order and it's specified for their system, their network, they're going to take it eventually. Now, we're not making our customers particularly happy right now with our extended lead times. We're going to make -- we're going to do better than that in the future, and we'll deliver this backlog.

因此，當他們訂購併為他們的系統、他們的網絡指定時，他們最終會接受它。現在，我們延長交貨時間並沒有讓我們的客戶特別滿意。我們要做——我們將來會做得比這更好，我們將交付這個積壓的工作。

The other thing I think to point out is that these aren't commodity items and for the most part, in our customers. These are networks that are designed to our specification. These are solutions that are integrated into their back office. And we've talked about it in the past in a totally different context the length of time it takes to do new product introduction into these large-scale service providers or web-scale. That is the stickiness that also permits them from just saying, okay, I'm going to take order X, Y, Z and take it down the street to somebody else.

我想指出的另一件事是，這些不是商品，而且在大多數情況下，在我們的客戶中。這些是按照我們的規範設計的網絡。這些是集成到其後台的解決方案。我們過去曾在完全不同的背景下討論過將新產品引入這些大型服務提供商或網絡規模所需的時間長度。正是這種粘性也允許他們說，好吧，我要接受 X、Y、Z 的訂單，然後把它帶到街上給其他人。

The second piece of that question was around price, which I don't hear you mentioning. And I do have a follow-up question on the supply chain, which is to what extent given additional lockdowns in China that are alarming the market right now, are you at risk that those ICs, those low-priced ICs, which tend to be more commoditized. And may be sourced in China are exposed to risk due to those lockdowns.

第二個問題是關於價格的，我沒有聽到你提到。我確實有一個關於供應鏈的後續問題，即考慮到目前令市場感到震驚的中國額外的封鎖措施，您是否面臨風險更加商品化。由於這些封鎖，可能在中國採購的產品面臨風險。

At the beginning of this calendar year, we went out to our customer set and negotiated a price increase, which was consistent really across the customer base. We did it to cover the costs, the increased costs that we were seeing. Now we chose not to reprice the backlog. We placed the price increase on orders after a certain date.

在本日曆年初，我們與我們的客戶群進行了談判，並就價格上漲進行了談判，這在整個客戶群中都是一致的。我們這樣做是為了支付成本，我們看到的增加的成本。現在我們選擇不對積壓訂單重新定價。我們在某個日期之後對訂單進行了提價。

And it so happens that we have not seen any effect of that price increase yet because we have not yet completed delivery of the backlog that was in place before the price increase went into effect. We think that late this year and in early next year, we will see a positive impact from that. I was very pleased with the way our customers reacted to it. It was a negotiation. And do you want to answer the second part, Scott?

碰巧的是，我們還沒有看到價格上漲的任何影響，因為我們還沒有完成在價格上漲生效之前的積壓交付。我們認為，在今年年底和明年初，我們將看到由此產生的積極影響。我對我們的客戶對它的反應方式感到非常滿意。這是一次談判。你想回答第二部分嗎，斯科特？

Yes. I mean COVID in general, obviously, has been difficult to predict around the world. So there is that overriding risk to some degree for everybody in the industry. But the specific news that was out of China over the last 24 hours in that particular province. We don't have any direct operational exposure to that and certainly haven't had any signals at this point in time from our suppliers that they have exposure either, but that's something that we're going to have to monitor in relatively new news. And subjectively, it's not a province that has ever come up in any of my dialogues traveling around the supply base.

是的。我的意思是，總的來說，COVID 顯然很難在世界範圍內預測。因此，在某種程度上，該行業的每個人都面臨著壓倒一切的風險。但是在過去 24 小時內該特定省份的具體新聞來自中國。我們對此沒有任何直接的運營風險敞口，當然目前我們的供應商也沒有任何信號表明他們也有風險敞口，但這是我們必須在相對較新的新聞中監控的事情。主觀上，我在供應基地周圍的任何對話中都沒有提到過這個省份。

Just to be clear, the question is how much of those ICs are coming from China specifically as opposed to that particular province. Nobody is expecting that particular $21 million -- 20 million Chinese to be the issue. But broadly, if there is a broad shutdown in China, are these ICs coming from there?

需要明確的是，問題是這些集成電路中有多少來自中國，而不是那個特定的省份。沒有人指望這 2100 萬美元——2000 萬中國人會成為問題。但從廣義上講，如果中國全面停產，這些 IC 是從那裡來的嗎？

Yes. The general statement I would say is the direct supply from those component providers is not from China. That's not to say though that they don't have sub components in there that if I trace their supply chain, the tertiary effect comes from China. But the direct components from the vendors that we deal with are not sourced out of China.

是的。我要說的一般性聲明是，這些組件供應商的直接供應不是來自中國。這並不是說他們沒有子組件，如果我追踪他們的供應鏈，第三效應來自中國。但我們處理的供應商的直接組件並非來自中國。

The next question comes from Jim Suva with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗的 Jim Suva。

I believe you mentioned that fiscal '23, your sales outlook is unchanged from like 90 days ago. But if you just had weakness this quarter because you couldn't meet it with supply, and then that's continuing to get into Q4. Why wouldn't actually fiscal '23 be a stronger outlook than 90 days ago?

我相信您提到過 23 財年，您的銷售前景與 90 天前一樣。但是，如果您本季度只是因為無法滿足供應而出現疲軟，那麼這將繼續進入第四季度。為什麼實際上 23 財年的前景不會比 90 天前更強勁？

Well, what I'd say is that we're taking a balanced view to '23 as we look at it now. We've not guided to '23. The number in consensus is it's $4.2 billion. I don't think that's a terrible number for the use and reference and we'll guide appropriately as we go through time.

好吧，我想說的是，我們現在對 23 年持平衡態度。我們沒有引導到'23。一致的數字是42億美元。我認為這對於使用和參考來說並不是一個可怕的數字，我們會隨著時間的推移進行適當的指導。

But remember, we're not expecting all of the particular component demand, I mean, the supply issues that we have seen to ameliorate immediately. And our balanced view is that it will improve, but not get us to the point where we could deliver everything in our backlog next year. By the way, I hope I'm wrong. If we could deliver -- if we could get more of these key components, we will deliver more revenue. But that's not our expectation today.

但請記住，我們並不期望所有特定的組件需求，我的意思是，我們看到的供應問題會立即得到改善。我們的平衡觀點是它會有所改善，但不會讓我們達到明年可以交付所有積壓工作的地步。順便說一句，我希望我是錯的。如果我們能夠交付——如果我們能夠獲得更多這些關鍵組件，我們將帶來更多收入。但這不是我們今天的期望。

Jim, this is Gary. I mean, I think, obviously, we're not guiding to '23 right now. We haven't finished this year, and that's been -- and that's challenging enough right now, given the supply chain pieces that we're seeing. But given the backlog we've got and the amelioration activities were in place, if all stays in the course of its own. We will start to see improvements as we get into '23. A bit too early to call that. Consensus right now is about $4.2 billion, as Jim said, and I think that's probably a reasonable -- probably a reasonable number, given what we're seeing.

吉姆，這是加里。我的意思是，我認為，很明顯，我們現在不是在指導 23 年。我們今年還沒有完成，而且已經 - 鑑於我們所看到的供應鏈部分，現在這已經足夠具有挑戰性了。但考慮到我們的積壓工作和改進活動已經到位，如果一切都按照自己的方式進行的話。進入 23 年，我們將開始看到改進。這麼稱呼有點太早了。正如吉姆所說，目前的共識約為 42 億美元，鑑於我們所看到的，我認為這可能是一個合理的 - 可能是一個合理的數字。

I understand the math. We went into this year planning for double-digit growth. When you sort of step back from it, if you get to sort of the midpoint of the guide in Q4, we've basically taken that number down by about $0.5 billion. And that's really all supply chain related. I understand the point, does that all roll into next year? It doesn't work like that because I don't think there's going to be a magic switch on supply chain. But that's probably the best number we have right now.

我理解數學。今年我們計劃實現兩位數的增長。當你從它退後一步時，如果你在第四季度達到指南的中點，我們基本上已經把這個數字減少了大約 5 億美元。這實際上與供應鏈有關。我明白了這一點，這一切都會延續到明年嗎？它不會那樣工作，因為我認為供應鏈不會有神奇的開關。但這可能是我們目前擁有的最好的數字。

And then my follow-up is other companies have gone to the broker market or secondhand market when they've had some shortages of part. I assumed you probably tried to, but it just happened so late in the quarter that would happen? Because if you said they're low-priced parts and a handful, why not pay up a bit of a premium and still get your product out the door into sale.

然後我的跟進是其他公司在零件短缺時進入了經紀市場或二手市場。我假設您可能嘗試過，但它只是在本季度末發生，會發生嗎？因為如果你說它們是低價零件和少數，為什麼不支付一點溢價，仍然讓你的產品上市銷售。

We certainly have gone to the broker market. That's one of the reasons -- in fact, it's the biggest reason why our margins have deteriorated from the sort of mid-40s level. But I'll tell you this, that the broker market is not as robust as it was a year ago because everybody is going there to buy their parts. So we've done it. We do it where we can, and we'll continue to do it.

我們當然去了經紀市場。這是原因之一——事實上，這是我們的利潤率從 40 年代中期水平下降的最大原因。但我要告訴你，經紀市場不像一年前那麼強勁，因為每個人都去那裡購買他們的零件。所以我們做到了。我們在力所能及的地方做到這一點，我們將繼續這樣做。

The next question comes from Tim Long with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Tim Long。

Yes, I got 2 as well. First one, sorry to beat that horse here, but we hear all the mitigations and whatnot that you guys have been going through for the supply chain here. Just -- it's been a long time here coming and most of the industry are improving, not getting worse. So when you think about kind of higher level you think about your procurement, your ability to estimate, ability to redesign. What have you guys been doing as far as like processes internally and personnel to try to address these problems better.

是的，我也有2個。第一個，很抱歉在這裡打敗了那匹馬，但我們聽到了你們為這裡的供應鏈所經歷的所有緩解措施和諸如此類的事情。只是 - 已經很長時間了，大多數行業都在改善，而不是變得更糟。因此，當您考慮更高級別時，您會考慮採購、估計能力和重新設計能力。就內部流程和人員方面而言，你們一直在做什麼，以試圖更好地解決這些問題。

So not just kind of what you guys have done, but what kind of investments are you making in people and process to ensure that it doesn't continue to happen? And then I got a follow-up on web-scale.

所以不僅僅是你們做了什麼，而是你們在人員和流程上進行了什麼樣的投資，以確保它不會繼續發生？然後我得到了網絡規模的跟進。

Tim, let me walk you through the steps and mitigation, including your processes and people questions. So first and foremost, obviously, we're out there from a process perspective. putting a large demand on the supply base with long lead times. And in fact, overriding their lead times and actually extending them. So that's one.

蒂姆，讓我帶您完成步驟和緩解措施，包括您的流程和人員問題。所以首先，很明顯，我們是從流程的角度來看的。對供應基地的需求很大，交貨時間很長。事實上，覆蓋他們的交貨時間並實際延長它們。所以這是一個。

Number two is, we've stepped in to put ourselves between ourselves and the direct component suppliers, where in the old world, when these things are moving on 90-day turn times, the contract manufacturers would do a lot of that. So we have added resources basically to manage the component suppliers and chase parts, if you like, directly ourselves. Obviously, there's a focus in terms of governance on the key components of our challenges.

第二是，我們已經介入，將自己置於與直接組件供應商之間，在舊世界，當這些事情在 90 天的周轉時間內發生時，合同製造商會做很多事情。所以我們基本上增加了資源來管理組件供應商和追逐零件，如果你願意，直接我們自己。顯然，治理方面的重點是我們挑戰的關鍵組成部分。

We have brought significant more resources from an engineering perspective to bear on the redesign activities throughout the year. Those will pay off, but they will pay off in front of us because they are longer lead time. And we've made significant investments in our manufacturing capacity such that when the specific constrain components get solved, we can turn that into finished goods and start servicing our customers faster than we would have been able to before. So we're looking at all aspects of that. They will pay off. It's just these are -- things will that take time.

我們從工程角度帶來了更多的資源，用於全年的重新設計活動。這些會得到回報，但它們會在我們面前得到回報，因為它們的交貨時間更長。我們對我們的製造能力進行了大量投資，這樣當特定的約束組件得到解決時，我們可以將其轉化為成品，並以比以前更快的速度開始為我們的客戶提供服務。所以我們正在研究這方面的各個方面。他們會有所回報。只是這些 - 事情需要時間。

Tim, the other thing I'd add to that is, I think we've basically done all of the right things, and we were very proactive with it, and we tried to get out ahead of that 18 months ago. And I look at all the things that we've done, and frankly, I think it's all the right stuff. We have a supply chain team in process that has navigated through some incredible challenges and outperformed everybody else. If you were to be in hindsight to it, which is a wonderful thing. Would we have bought some of that engineering talent in early to get multi-sourcing?

蒂姆，我要補充的另一件事是，我認為我們基本上做了所有正確的事情，而且我們非常積極主動，我們試圖在 18 個月前提前退出。我看看我們所做的所有事情，坦率地說，我認為這都是正確的。我們有一個正在處理的供應鏈團隊，他們已經克服了一些令人難以置信的挑戰，並且表現優於其他人。如果你事後看來，這是一件很棒的事情。我們是否會在早期購買一些工程人才以獲得多源性？

Maybe. But the challenge is we wouldn't know which components to focus on, quite frankly, so it won't be defensive to it, but I don't think there's really much else we could have done as we do -- as you look through that hindsight's a wonderful thing. But the other thing I'd say, Tim, is we're not happy with where we are in terms of the performance. We're about $0.5 billion down because of this issue and impacting customers. But I would say we are experiencing more relative and absolute demand than anybody else, and we are still shipping more equipment than anyone else in our space. So I would remind everybody of that.

也許。但挑戰在於，坦率地說，我們不知道應該關注哪些組件，所以它不會對它進行防禦，但我認為我們真的沒有太多其他事情可以做——就像你看的那樣事後諸葛亮是一件了不起的事情。但我要說的另一件事，蒂姆，我們對目前的表現並不滿意。由於這個問題和影響客戶，我們減少了大約 5 億美元。但我想說，我們正在經歷比其他任何人都更多的相對和絕對需求，而且我們仍然比我們所在領域的任何其他人運送更多的設備。所以我要提醒大家。

Okay. And just a follow-up on the web-scale. I noticed kind of was down a little bit more sequentially, particularly as you compare to service providers. So curious about that. And related to that, I would guess web-scalers are probably your most inpatient customer base. With all this stuff going on, it seems like once you introduce an optical system, there's a lot of drama around the componentry where in a pluggable so not as much, much lower bill of material, much smaller part count.

好的。只是網絡規模的後續行動。我注意到有點順序下降，特別是當你與服務提供商相比時。對此非常好奇。與此相關，我猜網絡縮放器可能是您最常住院的客戶群。隨著所有這些事情的發生，似乎一旦你引入了一個光學系統，在組件周圍就會有很多戲劇性的事情，在一個可插拔的組件中，沒有那麼多、更少的材料清單、更少的零件數量。

So is there a risk to that customer base that the potential transition to more pluggables in their network could accelerate because of the more difficulty around a system sale?

那麼，由於圍繞系統銷售的難度加大，該客戶群是否存在向網絡中更多可插拔設備的潛在過渡可能會加速的風險？

Tim, I'll let Scott take the pluggable part of that. My answer to that would be no, we're absolutely not seeing that. Web-scale were down in revenue for the quarter. That's just really turbulence from supply chain. What was the question? The answer is supply chain. So I think that the demand we're seeing -- very strong order flow for our systems, 6500 architecture around the web-scale players. And I think they'll be -- continue to be robust as we go through '23. On the pluggables side, Scott, do you want to talk about direct.

蒂姆，我會讓斯科特承擔其中的可插拔部分。我對此的回答是否定的，我們絕對沒有看到這一點。本季度網絡規模的收入下降。這只是來自供應鏈的真正動盪。問題是什麼？答案是供應鏈。所以我認為我們看到的需求——我們系統的訂單流非常強勁，6500 個架構圍繞網絡規模的玩家。而且我認為他們會 - 在我們度過 23 年時繼續保持強勁。在可插拔方面，Scott，你想談談直接嗎？

Just, Tim, where we are deployed today from a web-scale perspective, is not the patch where pluggables have applicability. As we said in the past, that pluggable conversation in the web-scale space for the most part for us is new territory and potential upside. So what you're seeing when you look quarter-over-quarter or period-over-period is 100% supply chain-related. We referenced one of the key challenge areas for us is modems.

只是，從 Web 規模的角度來看，我們今天部署的 Tim 並不是可插拔的適用性補丁。正如我們過去所說，網絡規模空間中的可插拔對話對我們來說大部分是新的領域和潛在的上行空間。因此，當您查看季度環比或週期環比時，您所看到的 100% 與供應鏈相關。我們提到了對我們來說關鍵挑戰領域之一是調製解調器。

They're obviously a big consumer of modem. So the 2 correlate very well. On pluggables in general, as we said consistently, we think it's very early innings for that ZR pluggable application. We're confident that we have the best plug available. We've shipped them to 45-plus customers, including the large web-scale pieces of it. We think that's going to be a growing piece of our business as we go into 2023 as well.

他們顯然是調製解調器的大消費者。所以 2 的相關性非常好。一般來說，正如我們一貫所說的那樣，對於一般的可插拔應用程序，我們認為 ZR 可插拔應用程序還處於早期階段。我們有信心擁有最好的插頭。我們已將它們運送給 45 多個客戶，包括其中的大型網絡規模部分。我們認為，隨著我們進入 2023 年，這將成為我們業務中不斷增長的一部分。

Our next question comes from Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Rod Hall。

I guess I wanted to come back to the range of outcomes that's possible in 2023. I think what you guys have said is your long-term growth model is 6% to 8%, and that would begin in 2023. And obviously, now the supply situation has become much less predictable and certainly could run into the beginning of '23. I think you would agree with that.

我想我想回到 2023 年可能出現的結果範圍。我認為你們所說的是你們的長期增長模式是 6% 到 8%，這將從 2023 年開始。顯然，現在供應情況變得難以預測，而且肯定會在 23 年初出現。我想你會同意的。

And on the other hand, you have this huge backlog and you could see much higher growth in that range in 2023. So I wonder if you would be willing to at least say from a breadth of outcomes point of view that it's a possibility if this supply situation were to persist in the beginning of the year that you might even be below that 6% to 8% range and acknowledging that it's also possible you could be well above consensus.

另一方面，您有大量積壓，您可能會在 2023 年看到該範圍內的更高增長。所以我想知道您是否願意至少從廣泛的結果角度說，如果這有可能供應情況將在年初持續，您甚至可能低於 6% 至 8% 的範圍，並承認您也有可能遠高於共識。

But I think when I hear back from investors this morning, some of them are saying, "Hey, this is a stock I would like to own", clearly, the demand situation is great. But given the supply uncertainty, the 2023 numbers could be a little bit punchy if this supply thing continues to be a problem in the beginning of the year. So I just wonder if you could kind of comment on how that range looks to you and what the risk to the maybe even the 6% to 8% growth might be. And then I have a follow-up.

但我想當我今天早上收到投資者的回复時，他們中的一些人說，“嘿，這是我想擁有的股票”，顯然，需求情況很好。但鑑於供應的不確定性，如果供應問題在年初仍然是個問題，那麼 2023 年的數字可能會有點過分。所以我只是想知道你是否可以評論一下這個範圍對你的看法，以及甚至 6% 到 8% 的增長可能面臨的風險。然後我有一個跟進。

Here would be my more response to that, Rod. First of all, we're not giving guidance for '23. We haven't finished '22 yet. So we normally give that as we turn the year. You're absolutely right. I mean look, what happened in '22, supply chain, et cetera. I would say that given what we're seeing now, if that does not deteriorate, then we have very high confidence in exceeding our 6% to 8%. If you look at sort of $4.2 billion, let's just take that as the current consensus based on our midpoint there, that's more than 20% growth. That's entirely possible if the supply chain set stays with some stability and we fix some of these particular issues that we're seeing right now, more than that right now would be kind of speculation.

羅德，這將是我對此的更多回應。首先，我們不會為 23 年提供指導。我們還沒有完成 22 年。因此，我們通常會在一年之際提供。你是絕對正確的。我的意思是看，22 年發生了什麼，供應鍊等等。我想說，鑑於我們現在所看到的情況，如果情況沒有惡化，那麼我們對超過 6% 到 8% 有很大的信心。如果你看一下 42 億美元，讓我們將其視為當前基於中點的共識，即增長超過 20%。如果供應鏈保持一定的穩定性，並且我們解決了我們現在看到的一些特殊問題，這是完全有可能的，而現在更多的是一種猜測。

The whole point there, Rod, is that the number, 6% to 8% is not a meaningful number right now. we have a depressed level of revenue this year. So 6% to 8% is -- it's not a relevant number.

羅德，關鍵是這個數字，6% 到 8% 現在不是一個有意義的數字。今年我們的收入水平很低。所以 6% 到 8% 是 - 這不是一個相關的數字。

And as Gary said, we haven't guided to next year, and it's very hard for us to give a range on our guide that we haven't given. So what I would say is we've got a big backlog, and it could be a lot higher than that if we got the parts.

正如加里所說，我們還沒有指導到明年，我們很難在我們的指導上給出一個我們沒有給出的範圍。所以我想說的是，我們有大量的積壓，如果我們得到零件，它可能會比這多得多。

Yes. Makes sense. Okay. And then the second question I had, I guess, is mostly for you, Gary, but it's related to the sales force. You had mentioned that you're accruing less for the cost plan and or incentive-based compensation. I wonder, are you worried that it's going to be tough to retain salespeople. The labor market is still pretty tight. There are, I guess, other peripheral companies maybe not an optical that are having better luck on supply. So I wonder how you're feeling about retention of salespeople, what the plan there is.

是的。說得通。好的。然後我想我的第二個問題主要是給你的，加里，但它與銷售人員有關。您曾提到，您為成本計劃和/或基於激勵的薪酬積累的收入減少了。我想知道，您是否擔心很難留住銷售人員。勞動力市場仍然相當緊張。我猜，其他外圍公司可能不是一家在供應上運氣更好的光學公司。所以我想知道你對保留銷售人員的感覺如何，有什麼計劃。

Listen, that's a good question. The large amount of the bonus accrual that we changed, for [Jim] is actually non-sales related and most, not all, of the sales force there actually comped on orders. So I mean we've had an extraordinary order year. So I feel pretty good, Rod, that the sales force quite rightly have been on the whole well compensated. And we have a highly tenured sales force. We have the largest and best equipped optical sales force in the world. And I'm talking about systems engineering and the sales folks as well. So I think they are largely compensated on orders. So they generally had a pretty good year.

聽著，這是個好問題。我們為 [Jim] 更改的大量應計獎金實際上與銷售無關，而且那裡的大多數（並非全部）銷售人員實際上都在拼訂單。所以我的意思是我們有一個非凡的訂單年。所以我感覺很好，羅德，銷售人員總體上得到了很好的補償。我們擁有一支資深的銷售隊伍。我們擁有世界上最大、裝備最好的光學銷售隊伍。我說的是系統工程和銷售人員。所以我認為他們在很大程度上得到了訂單補償。所以他們通常有一個相當不錯的一年。

But the question does pertain to our general employee -- but -- and of course, we're not happy to lower the accrual range for our general set of employees. We have, in the last couple of years, paid out very well. against that incentive comp plan. And this year is probably not going to be as good at our accrual reflects that, but we're trying to deal with that as best we can with merit and other things.

但這個問題確實與我們的普通員工有關——但是——當然，我們不樂意降低我們普通員工的應計範圍。在過去的幾年裡，我們的回報非常好。反對該激勵補償計劃。今年可能不會那麼好我們的應計反映了這一點，但我們正試圖用功績和其他事情盡可能地處理這個問題。

The next question comes from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

Perfect. Glad I snuck in here. I guess maybe the first -- I have 2 as well, but the first one I have is I think July quarter, you talked about a $60 million miss due to the supply chain issues. The October quarter guidance, I think $240 million below the Street was what you had implied in the past. Is all of that really related to the same supply chain issues? Is it something else happens, it almost seems like a factor of 4 that's affecting our October quarter guide versus July.

完美的。很高興我偷偷溜進來。我想也許是第一個——我也有兩個，但我認為第一個是 7 月季度，你談到了由於供應鏈問題導致的 6000 萬美元的損失。 10 月季度的指導，我認為低於華爾街 2.4 億美元是你過去暗示的。所有這些真的與相同的供應鏈問題有關嗎？是不是發生了其他事情，這似乎是影響我們 10 月季度指南與 7 月的因素的 4 倍。

And then what is the top of recovery from what you're hearing from the suppliers? Is it going to happen in Q1? Or is there a much longer lead time for this recovery of the bottleneck to alleviate?

那麼從供應商那裡聽到的消息中，恢復的最高點是什麼？會在第一季度發生嗎？或者是否有更長的時間來緩解瓶頸的恢復？

Amit, in general, if I heard him understood the question correctly, the space that is the challenge is consistent between Q3 and Q4. It's that small number of IC components that we talked about that is getting in the way of us maximizing the production of (inaudible). So it's the same challenge. A little bit different dynamic, though in Q3.

阿米特，總的來說，如果我聽到他正確理解了這個問題，那麼 Q3 和 Q4 之間的挑戰空間是一致的。正是我們談到的少量 IC 組件阻礙了我們最大限度地提高產量（聽不清）。所以這是同樣的挑戰。儘管在第三季度，動態略有不同。

In Q3, obviously, we had a perspective going into our Q3 guide of what the commitments were on all components, including those. And in that particular case in those components, those commitments weren't met. And they were -- it was too late for us to mitigate it going into Q4, same sort of dynamic and set of components and we're giving you our perspective as the environments and commitments sit today.

顯然，在第三季度，我們在第三季度指南中對所有組件（包括這些組件）的承諾有一個看法。在這些組件的特定情況下，這些承諾沒有得到滿足。他們是 - 我們在第四季度緩解它為時已晚，同樣的動態和一組組件，我們正在為您提供我們對當今環境和承諾的看法。

Got it. And then could you just touch on how do you think free cash flow stacks up in Q4 and fiscal '23. I mean is working capital is still going to be a use of free cash flow in Q4. So potentially negative, our leading free cash flow to improve -- I'd love to understand free cash flow expectations for Q4 and then broadly for '23.

知道了。然後您能否談談您認為自由現金流在第四季度和 23 財年的累積情況。我的意思是營運資金在第四季度仍將用於自由現金流。因此，潛在的負面影響是，我們領先的自由現金流有待改善——我很想了解第四季度的自由現金流預期，然後是 23 年的廣泛預期。

Yes. What I'd say is that we consumed a fair amount of our free cash in Q3. We built a lot of inventory. My guess is that we will probably build a little more inventory as we move through the next couple of quarters. And hopefully, as '23 progresses and if we get to the kind of numbers we're looking at, then that inventory level will start to decline. And our free cash flow will start to build next year. So I think next year, we'll have a good free cash flow. I won't qualify that in any other way except to say we'll have a good free cash flow next year.

是的。我想說的是，我們在第三季度消耗了相當數量的自由現金。我們建立了很多庫存。我的猜測是，隨著接下來的幾個季度，我們可能會建立更多的庫存。希望隨著 23 年的進展，如果我們達到我們正在研究的那種數字，那麼庫存水平將開始下降。我們的自由現金流將於明年開始建立。所以我認為明年，我們將擁有良好的自由現金流。除了說明年我們將擁有良好的自由現金流外，我不會以任何其他方式來限定這一點。

Thank you, everybody, for joining us today. We do look forward to connecting with everyone during the day today as well as a few events next week. Enjoy the Labor Day weekend, and look forward to connecting with you.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們確實期待在今天的白天以及下週的一些活動中與大家聯繫。享受勞動節週末，期待與您聯繫。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。