Ciena Corp (CIEN) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ciena Fiscal Third Quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

您好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加Ciena公司2022財年第三季財務業績電話會議。 （操作說明）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Gregg Lampf, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄製。現在我將會議交給今天的演講嘉賓，投資者關係副總裁格雷格·蘭普夫先生。請開始吧。

Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, and welcome to Ciena's Fiscal Third Quarter 2022 Results Conference Call. On the call today is Gary Smith, President and CEO; and Jim Moylan, CFO. Scott McFeely, our Senior Vice President of Global Products and Services, is also with us for Q&A. In addition to this call and the press release, we have posted in the Investors section of our website an accompanying investor presentation that reflects this discussion as well as certain highlighted items from the quarter.

謝謝米歇爾。早安，歡迎參加Ciena 2022財年第三季業績電話會議。今天出席會議的有總裁兼執行長Gary Smith和財務長Jim Moylan。全球產品與服務資深副總裁Scott McFeely也將參與問答環節。除了本次電話會議和新聞稿之外，我們還在公司網站的投資者關係板塊發布了一份投資者演示文稿，其中涵蓋了本次會議的討論內容以及本季度的一些重點項目。

Our comments today speak to our recent Q3 performance, our view on the current demand environment and supply chain conditions as well as discussion of our financial outlook. Today's discussion includes certain adjusted or non-GAAP measures of Ciena's results of operations. A detailed reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results is included in today's press release.

我們今天的演講主要圍繞著我們近期第三季的業績表現、對當前市場需求環境和供應鏈狀況的看法，以及對財務前景的展望。今天的討論涉及Ciena公司部分經調整或非GAAP準則下的經營業績。這些非GAAP準則下的業績與GAAP準則下的業績之間的詳細調節表已包含在今天的新聞稿中。

Before turning the call over to Gary, I'll remind you that during this call, we'll be making certain forward-looking statements. Such statements, including our quarterly and annual guidance discussion of market opportunities and commentary about supply chain constraints on our business results are based on current expectations, forecasts and assumptions regarding the company and its markets which include risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements discussed today.

在將電話轉交給 Gary 之前，我想提醒各位，在本次電話會議中，我們將做出一些前瞻性陳述。這些陳述，包括我們對季度和年度市場機會的展望以及對供應鏈限制因素如何影響公司業績的評論，均基於我們對公司及其市場的當前預期、預測和假設，其中包含可能導致實際結果與今天討論的陳述存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。

Assumptions relating to our outlook, whether mentioned on this call or included in the investor presentation that will post shortly after are an important part of such forward-looking statements, and we encourage you to consider them. These statements should be viewed in the context of the risk factors detailed in our most recent 10-K filing and in our upcoming 10-Q filing, which is required to be filed with the SEC by September 8.

無論是在本次電話會議中提及，還是包含在隨後發布的投資者簡報中，與我們展望相關的假設都是此類前瞻性陳述的重要組成部分，我們建議您仔細考慮。這些陳述應結合我們最新提交的10-K文件以及即將提交的10-Q文件（須於9月8日前向美國證券交易委員會提交）中詳述的風險因素進行解讀。

We expect to file by that date. Ciena assumes no obligation to update the information discussed in this conference call, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. As always, we will allow for as much Q&A as possible today. So we do ask that you limit yourselves to one question and one follow-up.

我們預計將在該日期前提交申請。 Ciena 不承擔更新本次電話會議中所討論資訊的義務，無論是因為出現新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。像往常一樣，我們今天將盡可能地安排問答環節。因此，請您盡量將每個問題限制在一個問題和一個後續問題內。

With that, I'll turn it over to Gary.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給蓋瑞。

Thank you, Gregg, and good morning, everyone. Today, we reported lower-than-expected fiscal third quarter financial performance, including revenue of $868 million and adjusted gross margin of 40%. In a moment, I will discuss the specific supply chain challenges that impacted our results and our continued actions to mitigate their effects on our customers and our business.

謝謝格雷格，大家早安。今天，我們公佈了低於預期的第三財季財務業績，包括8.68億美元的營收和40%的調整後毛利率。稍後，我將詳細討論影響我們業績的具體供應鏈挑戰，以及我們為減輕這些挑戰對客戶和業務的影響而採取的持續措施。

Before doing so, however, I think it's important to understand the context of the current environment as it relates to Ciena and specifically demand. Despite supply chain challenges and elongated lead times, strong secular demand trends show no signs of abating. And we remain confident that the fundamental macro drivers propelling this demand are durable over the long term.

不過，在此之前，我認為有必要了解當前環境與Ciena以及具體需求之間的關係。儘管面臨供應鏈挑戰和交貨週期延長，但強勁的長期需求趨勢並未顯示減弱的跡象。我們仍然相信，推動這一需求的宏觀基本驅動因素在長期內是可持續的。

As we all know, these include 5G, cloud and automation in addition to infrastructure spending, residential broadband funding and opportunities to displace Huawei. Combination of these secular drivers and our market leadership, including our technology, investment capacity and global scale, is driving continued robust demand from customers in both absolute and relative measures.

眾所周知，這些因素包括5G、雲端運算和自動化，以及基礎設施支出、住宅寬頻建設資金和取代華為的機會。這些長期驅動因素與我們的市場領先地位（包括我們的技術、投資能力和全球規模）相結合，正在推動客戶需求持續強勁成長，無論從絕對值或相對值來看皆是如此。

In fact, we had nearly 60% order growth in our last 4 quarters versus the same prior 4 quarter period. In Q3 specifically, orders outpaced revenue by more than 30%, and we continue to grow our backlog, which is now well over $4 billion. And we project further growth in our backlog in Q4.

事實上，過去四個季度我們的訂單量較前一個季度成長了近60%。尤其是在第三季度，訂單量比營收高出30%以上，我們的積壓訂單量也持續成長，目前已超過40億美元。我們預計第四季積壓訂單量將進一步成長。

Obviously, as we convert this large backlog to revenue and continue to win new business and a strong demand environment, we have confidence in continuing to gain market share as the supply chain challenges ameliorate.

顯然，隨著我們將大量積壓訂單轉化為收入，並不斷贏得新業務和強勁的需求環境，我們有信心隨著供應鏈挑戰的緩解而繼續擴大市場份額。

Now let me talk about supply chain. In the face of this strong demand, challenging supply chain conditions persist. I would like to note that at a high level, the majority of our suppliers are delivering to their promised, albeit extended, lead times, and we are also starting to see higher volumes.

現在我想談談供應鏈。面對如此強勁的需求，供應鏈仍面臨挑戰。我想指出的是，總體而言，我們的大多數供應商都能按時交貨，儘管交貨週期有所延長，我們也開始看到供貨量增加。

And I think this is sort of consistent with recent market commentary that has pointed to some signs of improvement in the overall supply environment. However, we have recently been challenged by the unpredictable performance of specific vendors and their associated componentry. When we spoke to you after our second quarter, our outlook for the remainder of the year reflected commitments made to us by our suppliers in early June, which a very small number of them did not need.

我認為這與近期市場評論基本一致，這些評論指出整體供應環境出現了一些改善跡象。然而，我們最近也面臨部分供應商及其相關零件表現不佳的挑戰。在第二季結束後，我們與您溝通時，我們對今年剩餘時間的展望是基於供應商在6月初向我們做出的承諾，但其中極少數供應商並未履行這些承諾。

Specifically, in the second half of our Q3, we experienced substantial delays and lower-than-expected component deliveries from this very small group of suppliers. These late notice decommits were primarily for certain integrated circuit components that represent a very small fraction of our overall materials.

具體而言，在第三季下半年，我們少數幾家供應商的零件交付出現嚴重延誤，且交付量低於預期。這些延遲交付的情況主要涉及某些積體電路元件，而這些元件在我們整體材料需求中所佔比例極小。

However, these delays and decommits impede our ability to build and deliver finished goods and systems such as modems for our customers and our [ship] product for revenue. But another way, this relatively small number of low-cost, low-value components is holding up a disproportionate amount of revenue primarily for our optical modems. As a result, our Q3 revenue and adjusted gross margin were both negatively impacted to a significant degree.

然而，這些延誤和取消承諾阻礙了我們為客戶生產和交付成品及系統（例如數據機）以及為客戶創造收入的能力。另一方面，這些數量相對較少的低成本、低價值組件卻造成了不成比例的收入損失，主要影響到我們的光纖數據機業務。因此，我們第三季的營收和調整後的毛利率都受到了顯著的負面影響。

And to size this for you, but for this specific challenge, we would have been at the high end of our revenue range and in line with consensus gross margin expectations for Q3. I would also say that certain of these supply dynamics have continued into our fiscal fourth quarter and are expected to negatively impact our current quarter's results, which Jim will discuss shortly.

為了讓您更清楚地了解情況，如果沒有這次特殊的挑戰，我們的營收本應達到預期範圍的高端，毛利率也符合市場對第三季的普遍預期。我還想指出，某些供應方面的動態影響已經延續到我們第四財季，預計將對本季度的業績產生負面影響，吉姆稍後會詳細討論這一點。

We remain very focused on our investments and actions to minimize the impact of these challenges on our customers. Firstly, we are working very closely with this small number of partners to resolve these acute challenges around delivery commitments and volumes; secondly, we continue to qualify engineering alternatives to expand our sources of supply and to pursue product redesign activities; and thirdly, we continue to invest in our readiness with respect to contract manufacturing capacity as well as our inventory levels to be prepared when these components do arrive.

我們始終專注於投資和行動，以最大程度地減少這些挑戰對客戶的影響。首先，我們正與少數合作夥伴緊密合作，以解決交付承諾和數量方面面臨的嚴峻挑戰；其次，我們持續評估工程替代方案，以擴大供應來源並推進產品重新設計；第三，我們持續投資於合約製造能力和庫存水平，以便在這些零件到貨時做好充分準備。

As a reminder, we also continue to place large advanced purchase commitments in their various falls, a premiums and expedite fees and access the broker market to secure additional supply. While these actions have obviously been ongoing for a long time and their benefits take time to be fully realized, we believe that we will start to achieve an improvement in volume and predictability with our suppliers as we move into fiscal 2023.

再次提醒，我們持續在各個秋季檔期做出大額預購承諾，支付溢價和加急費，並透過經紀商市場確保額外供應。雖然這些措施已持續很長時間，其效益也需要時間才能完全顯現，但我們相信，隨著進入2023財年，我們將開始在供應量和可預測性方面取得進展。

At the same time, it's important to stay focused on the investments that we're making in our long-term strategy to further open the aperture of our addressable market. Our portfolio and solutions offerings are at the heart of our customers' network priorities, and our innovation has never been stronger or more competitive than it is today, evidenced by the strong order flows.

同時，我們必須繼續專注於長期策略投資，以進一步拓展目標市場。我們的產品組合和解決方案是客戶網路策略的核心，而強勁的訂單量也證明了我們創新能力的空前強大和競爭力十足。

In optical in Q3, we added 14 new customers for WaveLogic 5 Extreme, and despite the supply challenges, we had a record number a quarter for WaveLogic 5 shipments, bringing our total WaveLogic 5 Extreme modems shipped to date to more than 44,000. And for WaveLogic 5 Extreme specifically, Q3 was strong with North American Tier 1 service providers as well as web-scale customers.

第三季度，我們在光纖業務方面新增了14家WaveLogic 5 Extreme客戶。儘管面臨供應挑戰，WaveLogic 5的季度出貨量仍創下歷史新高，迄今為止，WaveLogic 5 Extreme調變解調器的總出貨量已超過44,000台。 WaveLogic 5 Extreme在第三季表現特別強勁，主要客戶包括北美一級服務供應商和網路規模客戶。

Also in the quarter, we were awarded sole vendor status with a large international Tier 1 service provider for a major network upgrade. I would also say that our switching and routing revenue grew 45%, not all organic, year-over-year as we continue to capture additional opportunities and expand our TAM in this important area with a differentiated Adaptive IP approach, which is clearly resonating with customers.

本季度，我們也獲得了某大型國際一級服務供應商的獨家供應商資格，負責一項重要的網路升級專案。此外，我們的交換和路由業務收入年增了 45%，其中並非全部來自內生成長。我們持續抓住更多機遇，並憑藉差異化的自適應 IP 解決方案拓展了這一重要領域的市場規模，而這項方案顯然受到了客戶的認可。

In Q3, we added 25 new adaptive IP customers, bringing the total to nearly 200 as customers continue to seek alternatives to many traditional legacy IP vendors. Of those new customers, many more wins in key new areas, including 5G xHaul, cell-site routing, residential broadband and in enterprise with the uCPE SD-WAN solutions.

第三季度，我們新增了 25 家自適應 IP 客戶，使客戶總數接近 200 家，這表明客戶仍在尋求替代許多傳統 IP 供應商的方案。在這些新客戶中，我們在關鍵的新領域取得了更多成功，包括 5G xHaul、基地台路由、住宅寬頻以及採用 uCPE SD-WAN 解決方案的企業級應用。

Of particular note is the momentum with our universal aggregation and PON solution where our customer count has grown significantly this year, and we are now expanding globally. Indeed, as you can see in our Q3 results, our routing and switching portfolio has not been impacted to the same extent by supply chain challenges, certainly when compared to our Converged Packet Optical segment. And I think this is consistent with some of the more positive recent commentary from others in the packet IP space.

尤其值得一提的是，我們的通用聚合和PON解決方案發展勢頭強勁，今年客戶數量顯著增長，目前正在全球擴張。事實上，正如您在第三季業績報告中所見，我們的路由和交換產品組合受供應鏈挑戰的影響較小，尤其與我們的融合分組光網業務相比更是如此。我認為這與近期一些來自分組IP領域的正面評論相符。

Overall, we have tremendous momentum in the combination of significant secular demand drivers, our leading portfolio and our TAM expansion opportunities. The business has never been positioned better. As we are increasingly able to service the unprecedented demand, we are confident in our ability to continue to gain share and expand our addressable market.

整體而言，我們憑藉著強勁的發展勢頭，得益於顯著的長期需求驅動因素、領先的產品組合以及不斷擴大的潛在市場規模。公司目前處於前所未有的有利地位。隨著我們滿足前所未有的需求的能力不斷增強，我們有信心繼續提升市場份額並擴大目標市場。

With that, I'll turn it over to Jim.

這樣，我就把話筒交給吉姆了。

Thank you, Gary. Good morning, everyone. As Gary mentioned, revenue in Q3 came in at $868 million, reflecting the impact from the late and incomplete delivery of key components by a small number of suppliers. Adjusted gross margin was 40% in Q3, which was at the low end of our range. Overall, gross margin continues to reflect the negative impact of higher component costs and expedite fees.

謝謝 Gary。大家早安。正如 Gary 所說，第三季營收為 8.68 億美元，這反映了少數供應商關鍵零件交付延遲或不完整所造成的影響。第三季調整後毛利率為 40%，處於我們預期範圍的低端。整體而言，毛利率持續受到零件成本上漲和加急費用的負面影響。

In addition to that dynamic, in Q3, gross margin performance also reflects the specific supply chain in the quarter as the key components mentioned before, are primarily related to our higher-margin modem technology. Had it not been for the lack of those key components, revenue would have been approximately $60 million higher in the quarter and at the high end of our outlook range and adjusted gross margin would have been in line with expectations.

除了上述因素外，第三季的毛利率表現也反映了當季特定的供應鏈狀況，因為先前提到的關鍵零件主要與我們利潤率較高的調變解調器技術相關。如果不是因為缺少這些關鍵零件，當季營收將增加約6,000萬美元，達到我們預期範圍的高端，調整後的毛利率也將符合預期。

Adjusted operating expense in the quarter was $273 million. This is below our expected range. During the quarter, we reduced our accrual rate for our annual incentive compensation plan given our expected financial performance for the year. With respect to profitability measures, in Q3, we delivered adjusted operating margin of 8.5%, adjusted net income of $49 million and adjusted earnings of $0.33 per share.

本季調整後營業費用為2.73億美元，低於預期範圍。鑑於全年財務業績預期，本季我們降低了年度激勵薪酬計畫的提列率。在獲利能力方面，第三季我們實現了8.5%的調整後營業利益率、4,900萬美元的調整後淨利和0.33美元的調整後每股盈餘。

In addition, in Q3, cash used for operations was $205 million. Free cash flow was a use of $227 million and adjusted EBITDA was $96 million. We ended the quarter with approximately $1.3 billion in cash and investments. On the balance sheet, our current inventory levels reflect the current demand environment as well as the impact of the supply dynamics Gary mentioned. Since 2021, we have been ordering all of the components and subassemblies required to meet our backlog based upon vendor published lead times.

此外，第三季營運現金流為2.05億美元，自由現金流為2.27億美元，調整後EBITDA為9,600萬美元。季度末，我們持有約13億美元的現金及投資。資產負債表顯示，我們目前的庫存水準反映了當前的市場需求以及Gary提到的供應動態的影響。自2021年以來，我們一直根據供應商公佈的交貨週期訂購所有滿足訂單積壓所需的零件和子組件。

And other than a handful of our vendors, the supply chain is delivering at 90% reliability. Lack of performance by that handful of vendors is preventing delivery to customers. Therefore, we are accumulating components while we wait for delivery of those specific remaining items that are necessary to produce finished goods. We expect our inventory levels to reduce over time as the delivery performance for these key components stabilizes. Finally, in Q3, we repurchased approximately 3.2 million shares for $155 million. We have now completed our goal of repurchasing $500 million in shares in fiscal 2022.

除了少數供應商外，供應鏈的可靠性達到90%。這少數供應商的履約不佳導致我們無法交付產品給客戶。因此，我們正在儲備零件，同時等待生產成品所需的剩餘零件到貨。我們預計，隨著這些關鍵零件的交付情況趨於穩定，我們的庫存水準將逐漸降低。最後，在第三季度，我們回購了約320萬股股票，總額達1.55億美元。至此，我們已完成2022財年回購5億美元股票的目標。

With respect to guidance, as we said last quarter, in today's market environment, our revenue is not a function of demand. It is a function of supply. And as Gary said, and we repeat it, we have a very small number of suppliers that are not meeting their commitments or our expectations in terms of delivery times and volumes for a handful of low-cost, low-value parts. These decommits are having a disproportionate impact on our revenue. We saw that in Q3, and we are seeing these dynamics continue in Q4. As a consequence, in Q4, we expect to deliver revenue in a range of $800 million to $880 million.

關於業績指引，正如我們上季所述，在當前的市場環境下，我們的收入並非取決於需求，而是取決於供應。正如Gary所說，我們也再次強調，極少數供應商未能履行其對少量低成本、低價值零件的交貨時間和數量承諾，也未能達到我們的預期。這些違約行為對我們的收入造成了不成比例的影響。我們在第三季就看到了這種情況，而這種趨勢在第四季仍在持續。因此，我們預計第四季營收將在8億美元至8.8億美元之間。

This range is lower than previously expected and incorporates a wider set of potential outcomes, reflecting our expectations for a continuation of key component supply challenges in the quarter. Adjusted gross margin of approximately 40%. We expect similar dynamics to impact gross margin in Q4, including lower modem volume and continued higher component costs and logistics expenses.

這一預期範圍低於先前預期，涵蓋了更廣泛的潛在結果，反映了我們對本季關鍵零件供應挑戰持續存在的預期。調整後毛利率約40%。我們預計第四季度毛利率將受到類似因素的影響，包括數據機銷售下降以及零件成本和物流費用持續上漲。

And finally, adjusted OpEx of approximately $315 million. This reflects a return to more normalized levels from the atypical Q3. Q3, as I remind you, was below our original outlook due to the reduction in the accrual rate for our annual incentive compensation plan.

最後，經調整後的營運支出約為3.15億美元。這反映出營運支出已從異常的第三季回落至較正常的水平。正如我之前提到的，第三季低於我們最初的預期，原因是年度激勵薪酬計畫的提列率降低。

Additionally, in Q4, we expect a higher level of variable sales compensation, reflecting the extraordinary level of demand we've described. For the year, we will be approximately on the guide we gave at the beginning of the year, absent the changes in our annual incentive compensation plan, which I discussed.

此外，我們預計第四季度可變銷售佣金水準將有所提高，這反映了我們之前提到的異常旺盛的需求。全年來看，如果不考慮我之前提到的年度激勵薪酬計劃的調整，我們的業績將與年初給出的預期基本一致。

As we look to next year, we remain set up well for outsized growth next year and continue to expect to deliver revenue growth significantly above our annual long-term target of 6% to 8%. The strong demand environment and our backlog reinforced our confidence in these expectations for fiscal year '23. And our current revenue expectations for 2023 remain at the level we referenced when we reported Q2 90 days ago.

展望明年，我們已做好充分準備，迎接明年的強勁成長，並繼續預期營收成長將顯著高於我們6%至8%的年度長期目標。強勁的市場需求和充足的訂單儲備增強了我們對2023財年業績預期的信心。我們目前對2023年的營收預期與90天前發布第二季財報時所提及的水準保持一致。

With that, we'll now take questions from the sell-side analysts. Michelle?

接下來，我們將接受賣方分析師的提問。米歇爾？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

The first question comes from George Notter with Jefferies.

第一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的喬治諾特。

I guess just sort of stepping back and looking at the bigger picture here. Can you talk about how you're dealing with these issues in terms of customer conversations? I guess one thing I'm curious about is just on a relative basis, it seems like you guys are doing worse vis-a-vis your competition in terms of deliveries here. And I'm kind of wondering, is this going to impact long-term market share, long-term opportunity for Ciena? Like how permanent do you think the damage is here in terms of your customer relationships?

我想我們應該退後一步，從更宏觀的角度來看這個問題。您能否談談您是如何透過與客戶的溝通來應對這些問題的？我比較好奇的是，就交付量而言，你們似乎比競爭對手做得更差。我想知道，這是否會影響Ciena的長期市場份額和發展機會？您認為這種損害對客戶關係的影響會有多大？

So George, let me take that. I mean, I think, listen, we've got very close relationships with all of our customers, many of which go back -- some of which go back decades. So I think we have strong degrees of trust and transparency with them.

喬治，讓我來回答這個問題。我的意思是，我們和所有客戶都保持著非常密切的關係，其中許多關係可以追溯到幾十年前。所以我認為我們和他們之間有著高度的信任和透明度。

And we can only talk about what we see in terms of the challenges from a supply chain point of view and the difficulties that we're encountering that, but we're being very transparent with them. And I think the best way of sort of answering that in summary, George, is really we're continuing to see very robust orders. We've not seen cancellations. We've seen orders continue to well outstrip revenue and the statistic that I kind of shared about 60% year-on-year order growth for the last 4 quarters, that's sort of a testament to it.

我們只能談談供應鏈面臨的挑戰和困難，但我們始終保持高度透明。喬治，我認為總結起來最好的回答是，我們的訂單量持續強勁成長。沒有出現取消訂單的情況。訂單量持續遠超過收入，我之前提到的過去四個季度年增60%的數據就足以證明這一點。

And they understand the challenges that we're having. But I think because of our technology and our relationships, we believe that when all of the smoke clears from all of this and begins to ameliorate that we will actually gain share given the outsized demand that we see.

他們理解我們面臨的挑戰。但我認為，憑藉我們的技術和人脈關係，我們相信，當一切塵埃落定，情況開始好轉時，鑑於我們所看到的巨大需求，我們實際上會獲得市場份額。

I'm going to comment on the vendor side, George. On the vendor side, I can tell you that we do see some improvement on most components. In fact, for the majority of our vendors for everyone except these key components that we're talking about, we're seeing about a 90% deliverability performance against promised lead time, which is pretty good. So we're focused, of course, on this very small number, less than a handful of vendors that are not delivering.

喬治，我來談談供應商方面的情況。就供應商而言，我可以告訴你，我們看到大多數組件的交付情況都有改善。事實上，除了我們提到的這些關鍵組件之外，我們大多數供應商的交付率都達到了承諾交付週期的90%左右，這相當不錯。所以，我們當然會專注於那極少數（不到幾家）未能準時交付的供應商。

In fact, they've been quite unreliable and have caused us great difficulty. We're dealing with them appropriately at all levels of the company. We are hoping that, that performance improves as we move through time. And in the meantime, we're taking a lot of steps to deal with in case it doesn't, such as respecified parts on our boards, et cetera.

事實上，他們的表現一直很不可靠，給我們造成了很大的麻煩。公司各層級都在妥善處理此事。我們希望隨著時間的推移，他們的表現能夠有所改善。同時，我們也採取了許多應對措施，以防萬一，例如重新調整電路板上的零件等等。

Yes. That's what I wanted to ask about. So where are you in the process of redesigning these components out? How many components specifically are we talking about? When might those redesigns be done? Just give us any more detail there, that would be great.

是的，這正是我要問的。你們目前在重新設計這些組件方面進展到什麼程度了？具體涉及多少個組件？這些重新設計大概什麼時候才完成？請提供更多細節，非常感謝。

George, it's Scott. So just in terms of dimensioning it, as Jim said, the vast majority of the supply chain is pretty much delivering to their promises. We're talking about a very focused set of components here. And to put it in perspective, when we say that it's a couple of handfuls of component parts on a handful of vendors. Obviously, we have a significant amount of redesign work going on as a vehicle to get at those problem components in addition to working with the existing component suppliers to get a better answer out of them as well.

喬治，我是史考特。就規模而言，正如吉姆所說，絕大多數供應鏈供應商基本上都履行了他們的承諾。我們這裡討論的是非常具體的幾類零件。為了更清楚地說明問題，我們說這只是少數幾家供應商提供的幾類零件。顯然，我們正在進行大量的重新設計工作，以此來解決這些問題零件，同時也與現有零件供應商合作，爭取從他們那裡獲得更好的解決方案。

On the design side, George, they fall into 2 categories. One is a sourcing exercise where you may be able to find alternative components that are plug replaceable. In that case, you still have to get in line to lead times from those component providers, but it's a less of a heavy lift on our side. The second category, of course, is where you need to redesign in order to take advantage of those component parts and those are hardware redesigns and those are multi-quarter activities. All of that activity, I think, starts to come on board in 2023, and we'll start to see gradual benefit from that as we go throughout the year in addition to continuing to work with the existing component suppliers.

喬治，在設計方面，它們可以分為兩類。一類是尋找替代元件，例如可以即插即用的替代元件。在這種情況下，你仍然需要等待元件供應商的交貨週期，但這對我們來說工作量會小一些。第二類當然是需要重新設計才能利用這些元件，這屬於硬體重新設計，需要跨越多個季度。我認為所有這些工作都將在2023年開始逐步推進，隨著時間的推移，我們將逐步從中受益，同時繼續與現有元件供應商合作。

And to be clear, again, this handful of suppliers has been very reliable in the past. This is a new phenomenon. Of course, we're in unusual times. But when we have spoken to guidance in past quarters, we have always based our expectations of revenue upon their published lead times and the fact that they have met those lead times in the past. So that's how we came up with our view of the world. And that's why we've guided where we have.

再次強調，這幾家供應商過去一直非常可靠。這是一種新現象。當然，我們正處於非常時期。但過去幾個季度，我們在發布業績指引時，始終以供應商公佈的交貨週期以及他們過去按時交貨的事實為依據。這就是我們得出目前業績指引的原因。

And a number of those vendors, George, they supply multiple parts to us. And in many cases, many of their parts are performing as they promised. This is a very focused subset.

喬治，許多供應商都向我們供應多種零件。在很多情況下，他們的零件都如承諾的那樣運作良好。這只是一個非常具體的子集。

Our next question comes from Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的梅塔·馬歇爾。

Great. Maybe just kind of jumping on George's question. Is there a way to size kind of the impact of products already redesigned, so we can just get a sense that given that we're a year through this that you've already redesigned and that's made x number of revenue available just to kind of balance out some of the downdraft that we're seeing.

好的。也許我只是想順著喬治的問題問一下。有沒有辦法衡量已經重新設計的產品的影響，這樣我們就能大致了解，考慮到一年過去了，你們已經重新設計了一些產品，這些產品帶來了多少收入，從而可以抵消我們目前看到的一些下滑趨勢。

And the second piece would be just as you kind of continue to express confidence of this goal '23, I mean, what are you basing kind of that confidence on would be helpful.

第二點是，既然你一直對2023年的目標充滿信心，那麼你的這種信心又是基於什麼呢？這很有幫助。

Why don't I answer that second part first, Meta. We're basing that confidence on, first of all, incredible visibility and backlog. So that's number one; number two, the actions that we've taken, which are multifaceted, and we try to get out ahead of this. This is not a reactive piece. I mean, we've talked about this for a while. We knew that demand was going to increase substantially this year, and we planned, as we shared with you, for a well double-digit growth this year, and we took a lot what we thought were the right supply chain actions in place for that in terms of placing orders, in terms of actually engineering work to reduce our dependency.

Meta，不如我先回答第二個問題吧。我們之所以如此自信，首先是基於極高的市場可見度和充足的訂單儲備。這是第一點；其次，是我們採取的多面向行動，我們力求提前應對。這不是被動應對。我的意思是，我們已經討論這個問題一段時間了。我們知道今年的需求會大幅增長，正如我們之前和你們分享的，我們預計今年將實現兩位數的增長，並且我們採取了許多我們認為正確的供應鏈措施，包括下單和調整生產流程以降低對供應商的依賴。

Those things start, I think, to kick in as we come out of this year into '23. And whilst we're cautious given the impact that we're seeing both in Q3 and Q4, we believe that they will ameliorate from the actions that we've taken and the work that our partners are doing also to ameliorate the issues. So we have very good confidence as we turn the year that this will start to improve. It won't be an on-off switch. It will be a process that improves as we start in Q1, but it does give us confidence in the year as we start to -- we grow out of this.

我認為，這些問題會在今年進入2023年後開始顯現。儘管鑑於第三季和第四季目前的影響，我們仍保持謹慎，但我們相信，隨著我們採取的措施以及合作夥伴為緩解這些問題所做的努力，情況將會得到改善。因此，我們非常有信心，隨著新年的到來，情況會開始好轉。這不會是一蹴可幾的，而是一個循序漸進的過程，從第一季開始逐步改善。但這確實讓我們對今年充滿信心，因為我們將逐漸擺脫困境。

And Meta, just to give you some sizing on the activities. If you look at our total component of materials, if you like, for the entire portfolio, we've had multi-sourcing activities. In other words, qualifying alternative parts that adds about 10% to our approved vendor list, obviously focused on the challenge areas. The timing challenge with that, of course, is when you identify a new component, you get -- there are new orders and you get in line on their lead times.

Meta，我來簡單介紹一下這些活動的規模。如果你看一下我們整個產品組合的材料組成，你會發現我們進行了多源採購活動。換句話說，我們篩選了替代零件，這大約增加了我們合格供應商名單的10%，顯然，我們主要針對的是那些具有挑戰性的領域。當然，這樣做在時間安排上也存在挑戰：當你確定一個新的零件時，就會有新的訂單，你需要根據這些訂單的交貨週期進行調整。

So now those activities were ongoing throughout 2022. The lead times in the industry would suggest that those are going to start to come and have an impact on our ability a wider aperture, if you like, for the supply components in '23.

因此，這些活動在 2022 年全年都在進行。產業內的交貨週期表明，這些活動將在 2023 年開始出現，並對我們擴大供應組件範圍的能力產生影響。

On the redesign side, we've got multiple tens of redesign activities on the go right now, which is probably about 10x more than we would have in a normal year. All of those are in front of us. Those are all 2023 impacts because they really are hardware redesigned. So they will help in '23 as well. And maybe to put another way to look at it, if those problems didn't exist on that very small handful of components, we would have had revenue in the range of our original yearly guide and then some just on those -- just on alleviating those small number of components. Hopefully, that helps dimension it (inaudible).

在重新設計方面，我們目前正在進行數十項重新設計活動，這大概是往年的十倍。所有這些活動都擺在我們面前。這些活動的影響都將在2023年顯現，因為它們實際上是硬體重新設計。所以它們在2023年也會有所幫助。或許可以換個角度來看，如果那極少數組件上的問題不存在，僅靠解決這少數組件的問題，我們的收入就能達到原定的年度預期，甚至更高。希望這能幫助大家更理解（聽不清楚）。

Our next question comes from Paul Silverstein with Cowen & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen & Company 的 Paul Silverstein。

Guys, what did backlog increased to exactly? I heard you say it was significantly greater than $4 billion, but what was the sequential increase? What was the book-to-bill this quarter, if I remember, it was 1.5 or over 1.5 last quarter. What was it this quarter? And do you...

各位，積壓訂單具體增加了多少？我聽說你們說遠超40億美元，但環比增長了多少？這季度的訂單出貨比是多少？如果我沒記錯的話，上季是1.5或更高。這季是多少？還有…

Go ahead. I'll ask the next question...

請繼續。我來問下一個問題…

Ask your second question as well, Paul.

保羅，也請問你的第二個問題。

I see headcount was up almost 500 sequentially, that's massive relative to the total headcount, and it's more than we've seen in a long time. What's that all about?

我看到員工人數較上月增加了近500人，相對於總員工人數來說增幅巨大，也是我們很長一段時間以來見過的最高增幅。這是怎麼回事？

So let me take the first part of that, and then Jim can talk about the headcount growth. The revenue to orders, orders were about 30% above revenue in Q4 -- sorry, in Q3. We expect as well the orders to be above revenue in Q4. So we're going to create more backlog. The backlog as we turn out right now is about -- is approximately $4.4 billion, Paul.

那麼，我先來談談第一部分，然後吉姆可以談談員工人數成長的情況。第四季（抱歉，是第三季）的訂單量比營收高出約30%。我們預計第四季的訂單量也會超過收入。所以我們將創造更多積壓訂單。保羅，目前積壓訂單的總金額約為44億美元。

I apologize, Gary. That was up from the previous quarter?

抱歉，加里。這個數字比上一季高嗎？

Yes. Yes, yes. Absolutely. Yes. It's up a few hundred million, yes.

是的。是的，是的。絕對的。是的。確實上漲了數億。

Yes. And before -- go ahead, Jim. Go ahead.

是的。還有——吉姆，請繼續。請繼續。

We're going to limit you 2 questions, Paul. So I just want to.

保羅，我們只允許你問兩個問題。所以我只想問…

Well, Jim, before you respond, let me -- because those were just clarification. The real question is relative to the order and the backlog, what's the risk for [Ciena] you say you're just masking weakness by laying off on supply chain. What's the risk -- with respect to the robust orders and backlog, what's the risk that, that's a function of customers not willing to step that a line on orders. And for that matter, they continue to place orders with both of them being related to the fact that supply chain remains so tight. And that real demand is not reflected by what nominally appears to be extremely strong orders in the backlog?

吉姆，在你回答之前，讓我先解釋一下——因為那些只是澄清。真正的問題是，就訂單和積壓訂單而言，你所說的Ciena透過裁減供應鏈人員來掩蓋疲軟，這其中的風險是什麼？就強勁的訂單和積壓訂單而言，這其中的風險又是什麼？顧客不願意突破訂單底線，這又代表什麼？事實上，他們仍在繼續下訂單，而這兩點都與供應鏈仍然非常緊張有關。而實際需求並沒有反映在表面上看起來非常強勁的積壓訂單中？

I would answer the question like this, Paul, your second question of 3. I would answer it like this. Yes, the order book is made up of sort of 3 elements in my view. One is a little bit of catch up from all the COVID time, but that's sort of flushed through to a large extent right now. Do you have a little bit of forward ordering because of supply chain lead times and the rest of it? Yes, it's nowhere near what you imagine that might be. It's -- that's very much with certain customers who absolutely want to secure next year's revenue, and we have some orders that are scheduled for next year for 2023. That is not the majority of the backlog. The vast majority of the backlog customers would take immediately because they have real needs. And I think what we're seeing is a very strong step function in demand unfortunately, at a time where we've got a constrained supply chain.

保羅，關於你的第二個問題（總共三個），我會這樣回答。是的，在我看來，訂單簿主要由三個部分組成。一部分是疫情期間積壓的訂單，但現在大部分都已經處理完畢。你們是否因為供應鏈交貨週期等原因有一些提前預訂的訂單？是的，但遠遠沒有你想像的那麼多。這主要是某些客戶為了確保明年的收入而下的訂單，我們有一些訂單安排在2023年。但這並非積壓訂單的大部分。絕大多數積壓訂單的客戶都希望立即下單，因為他們確實有實際需求。我認為，不幸的是，我們現在看到的是需求出現了非常強勁的階躍式成長，而同時，我們的供應鏈卻受到限制。

So if you look at the actual demand of our customers, they would roll this product into their network very quickly and put traffic on it. So I'm very comfortable that the demand characteristics there and what we're seeing in our large backlog is not just a function of mitigating their supply chain lead times. There's some of that, for sure, with 1 or 2 customers. Most of it, they would absolutely take the equipment. So we take a lot of comfort from that.

所以，如果你看看我們客戶的實際需求，他們很快就會將這款產品部署到他們的網路中並投入使用。因此，我非常確信，目前的需求特徵以及我們大量的積壓訂單並非僅僅是為了縮短他們的供應鏈交貨週期。當然，確實有那麼一兩個客戶是因為這個原因。但大多數客戶確實會購買這套設備。所以，我們對此感到非常放心。

And we know them very well. We speak to them every day. We know that their system, their networks need this gear. And we've had no -- essentially no order cancellations. So we don't think there's a significant risk there. On the people side, our headcount is generally in line with the plan we set out at the beginning of the year. Recall that I said that absent the changes to the accrual rate for our incentive compensation plan for the company, our OpEx would be approximately what we guided at the beginning of the year, which was approximately our plan. So it's well in keeping with what we plan to do.

我們非常了解他們。我們每天都與他們溝通。我們知道他們的系統和網路需要這些設備。而且我們幾乎沒有收到任何訂單取消通知。所以我們認為這方面不存在重大風險。人員方面，我們的員工人數基本上符合年初制定的計畫。正如我之前所說，如果沒有公司激勵薪酬計畫的累積率調整，我們的營運支出將與年初的預期大致相同，也就是我們計畫的大致水準。因此，目前的情況與我們的計劃完全一致。

And as we've said in the past, we do think that as networks converge across a few layers then it's very important that we add to our capability in the routing and switching layers of the network. We are, of course, the best in the world in optical. We think that we will have the best converged solution as we develop these capabilities.

正如我們之前所說，隨著網路在多個層面融合，增強我們在網路路由和交換層面的能力至關重要。當然，我們在光纖領域是世界領先的。我們相信，隨著這些能力的不斷提升，我們將擁有最佳的融合解決方案。

In order to develop those capabilities, we have to bring people into our R&D shops around the world. We have to bring people into our sales force in order to sell these capabilities. So that's why the head count has grown. I think it will probably -- it's not going to grow at that level next year, I would say. I think we are just about at the level that we need to be.

為了發展這些能力，我們需要在全球各地的研發部門招募人才。為了推廣這些能力，我們也需要銷售團隊招募人才。這就是員工人數成長的原因。我認為明年員工人數可能不會再像去年那樣成長了。我認為我們目前的規模差不多已經足夠了。

So the bulk of those people are going through...

所以，這些人中的絕大多數都在經歷…

R&D and sales.

研發和銷售。

For routing and switching.

用於路由和交換。

Generally, yes, not all, but generally, yes.

一般來說，是的；並非所有情況都是如此，但總體而言是的。

I'd say routing and switching, Paul, but also the off-box software capabilities to manage those forward-looking solutions as well.

保羅，我認為是路由和交換，但也包括管理這些前瞻性解決方案的外部軟體功能。

The next question comes from Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯公司的西蒙利奧波德。

Two for me as well. First one is -- we've seen the 5G awards for spectrum in India occurring. And really recall that in the past, you've had some very strong business in India. And if you could maybe talk about what you're seeing in terms of that particular opportunity and what you're expecting in fiscal '23 in terms of contributions from the region? And then I'll ask my follow-up after.

我也有兩個問題。第一個問題是－我們看到印度正在進行5G頻譜分配。我記得過去貴公司在印度的業務非常強勁。您能否談談您對這特定機會的看法，以及您對2023財年該地區業務貢獻的預期？之後我會提出我的後續問題。

Simon, yes. No, we're seeing very strong cyclical activity in India after a very challenging set of years. We are incredibly well placed there with all of the major players and including all the web-scale, it's very focused area for the major web-scale players to the fastest Internet growth country in the world.

西蒙，是的。不，我們看到印度市場在經歷了充滿挑戰的幾年後，正呈現非常強勁的周期性成長。我們在印度擁有得天獨厚的優勢，與所有主要參與者，包括所有網路規模的企業都有合作。對於主要的網路規模企業來說，印度是全球網路成長最快的國家，也是一個重點發展區域。

You could see now things are very turbulent given all the supply chain challenges, but we were up pretty robustly in the quarter and in fact, 44%, from a revenue point of view, I wouldn't sort of bear too much to that because you've got ebbs and flows, largely driven by supply chain at this moment in time. But I think it is a moniker around the growth that we see there, and we expect a very robust 2023 in India, driven by all of the spectrum stuff with Jio and Bharti, et cetera.

鑑於供應鏈面臨的種種挑戰，目前情況非常動盪，但我們本季業績依然強勁成長，實際上成長了44%。從營收角度來看，我並不完全認同這個數字，因為市場總是會有起伏，而目前供應鏈的波動是主要驅動因素。但我認為這個數字反映了我們所看到的成長勢頭，我們預計2023年在印度市場將保持強勁成長，這主要得益於Jio和Bharti等公司在頻譜方面的合作。

Great. And then on my follow-up, I hate to talk more about supply chain, but I need to get a better understanding of these sort of low-end parts that ended up being the constraints. Are these parts that are unique to the vendors and therefore, you did not have an option to multi-source and that's what's leading to redesign? Or was there some misstep on your part that you didn't multi-source because these seem to be readily available parts? I just need to understand a little bit better about this particular component you're talking about.

好的。接下來我想問的是，我不太想再談供應鏈，但我需要更深入地了解這些最終成為瓶頸的低端零件。這些零件是供應商獨有的，因此你們無法選擇多供應商，從而導致需要重新設計嗎？還是說，你們在選擇供應商時犯了什麼錯誤，沒有選擇多供應商，因為這些零件看起來很容易買到？我需要更清楚地了解你們提到的這個特定組件。

Sorry, sorry, sorry. I categorize some of those multi-industry low-cost ICs that we've used in that family for many years across many generations of our products and have been very consistent in terms of their availability. Challenges are unique. And yes, in perfect hindsight, I wish we had design multi-sourcing there. Of course, we have. But frankly, going back a year that wouldn't be the area of the product portfolio we would have concentrated our multi-sourcing activities on because it's been a very reliable part of the supply chain ecosystem in the past.

抱歉，抱歉，抱歉。我指的是我們多年來在多代產品中一直使用的那些低成本、跨行業的積體電路，它們的供貨一直非常穩定。挑戰是獨特的。是的，事後看來，我希望我們當時能採取多源採購策略。當然，我們確實採用了。但坦白說，如果回到一年前，我們不會把多源採購的重點放在這個產品組合上，因為它過去一直是供應鏈生態系統中非常可靠的部分。

As we sit here now, obviously, we are working on those multi-source activities, both in terms of alternative sources that can be plug replaceable. Those are far few and far between, but also the physical redesigns of the boards to be able to accept multiple alternatives.

顯然，我們現在正在研究多源方案，包括尋找可插拔替換的替代元件（這類元件目前非常少見），以及對電路板進行物理重新設計，使其能夠相容於多種替代元件。

Our next question comes from Alex Henderson with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Alex Henderson。

Great. I want to go back, I guess, like mindset kind of situation. I want to go back to the cancellation question. Clearly, you haven't seen cancellations in the current environment that wouldn't make a lot of sense, people accelerating orders and then canceling them. But can you talk about your history of cancellations. If you go back over the last recession, what kind of cancellation did you see in that environment?

好的。我想回到之前的話題，例如心態方面的問題。我想回到取消訂單的問題。顯然，在當前環境下，您並沒有看到太多不合常理的取消訂單，例如人們加速下單然後又取消訂單。但是您能否談談您以往的取消訂單情況？回顧上次經濟衰退，您當時觀察到的是什麼樣的取消訂單狀況？

Have you had -- it's my understanding that your net cancellation rate is something under 1% in pretty much every quarter in the history of the company. Is that accurate? And to what extent does the order require the service provider or other vendor to do a lot of work before they put the order and to set the RFP up, which makes it expensive for them to consult.

據我了解，貴公司歷史上幾乎每季的淨取消率都低於1%。這個數據準確嗎？另外，訂單在多大程度上需要服務提供者或其他供應商在下單和準備招標書之前做大量工作，從而導致諮詢成本較高？

And then the second piece of that is Jim, how -- what's going on with your pricing? You talked about price increases before. Is that something that reduces the risk of cancellation?

其次，吉姆，你們的定價策略怎麼樣了？你之前有提到漲價。漲價會降低顧客取消訂單的風險嗎？

Yes. Just historically, Alex, our order cancellation rate has been well under 1%. In fact, I can think of a handful of cases in the past in which we've seen order cancellations. It's just not done because by and larger customers order this year because they need it. Not by and large 100%. That's why they order the stuff. They don't buy it on -- in the hope that they'll need it.

是的。 Alex，從歷史數據來看，我們的訂單取消率一直遠低於1%。事實上，我能想到的只有少數幾個訂單取消的案例。但這種情況並不常見，因為大多數客戶今年下單都是因為他們需要。當然，並非百分之百如此。他們下單就是因為需要，而不是抱著「以後或許需要」的想法。

So when they order and it's specified for their system, their network, they're going to take it eventually. Now, we're not making our customers particularly happy right now with our extended lead times. We're going to make -- we're going to do better than that in the future, and we'll deliver this backlog.

所以，當他們下訂單並且產品已明確指定用於他們的系統和網路時，他們最終都會收到貨。目前，我們較長的交貨週期確實讓顧客不太滿意。但未來我們會做得更好，我們會交付積壓的訂單。

The other thing I think to point out is that these aren't commodity items and for the most part, in our customers. These are networks that are designed to our specification. These are solutions that are integrated into their back office. And we've talked about it in the past in a totally different context the length of time it takes to do new product introduction into these large-scale service providers or web-scale. That is the stickiness that also permits them from just saying, okay, I'm going to take order X, Y, Z and take it down the street to somebody else.

我想指出的另一點是，這些並非普通商品，而且在大多數情況下，這些網路都是根據我們的規格量身設計的，是整合到他們後台系統中的解決方案。我們過去曾在完全不同的脈絡下討論過，將新產品引入這些大型服務提供者或網路規模的企業需要花費相當長的時間。正是這種顧客黏性，使得他們不會輕易放棄X、Y、Z訂單，轉而交給其他公司。

The second piece of that question was around price, which I don't hear you mentioning. And I do have a follow-up question on the supply chain, which is to what extent given additional lockdowns in China that are alarming the market right now, are you at risk that those ICs, those low-priced ICs, which tend to be more commoditized. And may be sourced in China are exposed to risk due to those lockdowns.

第二個問題是關於價格的，我沒聽到您提到這一點。我還有一個關於供應鏈的後續問題，鑑於中國目前因疫情而實施的封鎖措施引發了市場恐慌，您認為那些價格較低、商品化程度較高、可能產自中國的積體電路（IC）在多大程度上會受到這些封鎖措施的影響？

At the beginning of this calendar year, we went out to our customer set and negotiated a price increase, which was consistent really across the customer base. We did it to cover the costs, the increased costs that we were seeing. Now we chose not to reprice the backlog. We placed the price increase on orders after a certain date.

今年年初，我們與客戶協商，調整了價格，此次漲價對所有客戶群基本一致。我們這樣做是為了彌補成本上漲帶來的損失。我們決定不重新調整積壓訂單的價格，而是將價格上漲應用於特定日期之後的訂單。

And it so happens that we have not seen any effect of that price increase yet because we have not yet completed delivery of the backlog that was in place before the price increase went into effect. We think that late this year and in early next year, we will see a positive impact from that. I was very pleased with the way our customers reacted to it. It was a negotiation. And do you want to answer the second part, Scott?

碰巧的是，我們目前還沒有看到這次漲價的影響，因為我們還沒有完成漲價生效前積壓的訂單交付。我們預計今年稍晚和明年年初，漲價將會產生正面的影響。我對客戶的反應非常滿意。這是一次協商。史考特，你想回答第二個問題嗎？

Yes. I mean COVID in general, obviously, has been difficult to predict around the world. So there is that overriding risk to some degree for everybody in the industry. But the specific news that was out of China over the last 24 hours in that particular province. We don't have any direct operational exposure to that and certainly haven't had any signals at this point in time from our suppliers that they have exposure either, but that's something that we're going to have to monitor in relatively new news. And subjectively, it's not a province that has ever come up in any of my dialogues traveling around the supply base.

是的。我的意思是，新冠疫情在全球範圍內顯然難以預測。因此，對業內所有人來說，這在某種程度上都是一個不容忽視的風險。但就過去24小時內來自中國某個特定省份的新聞而言，我們目前沒有直接的業務風險，供應商也尚未透露任何相關資訊。不過，我們會密切關注這些新出現的新聞。就我個人而言，在我走訪供應鏈的過程中，從未與任何人討論過這個省份的情況。

Just to be clear, the question is how much of those ICs are coming from China specifically as opposed to that particular province. Nobody is expecting that particular $21 million -- 20 million Chinese to be the issue. But broadly, if there is a broad shutdown in China, are these ICs coming from there?

需要澄清的是，問題在於這些積體電路有多少來自中國本土，而不是來自某個特定省份。沒人指望那2100萬美元——也就是2000萬——的中國資金會成為問題所在。但整體而言，如果中國出現大規模停擺，這些積體電路是否來自中國？

Yes. The general statement I would say is the direct supply from those component providers is not from China. That's not to say though that they don't have sub components in there that if I trace their supply chain, the tertiary effect comes from China. But the direct components from the vendors that we deal with are not sourced out of China.

是的。總的來說，我認為這些零件供應商的直接供貨並非來自中國。但這並不意味著他們的產品中沒有子零件，如果我追蹤他們的供應鏈，可能會發現這些子零件最終來自中國。但我們合作的供應商提供的直接零件並非來自中國。

The next question comes from Jim Suva with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的吉姆·蘇瓦。

I believe you mentioned that fiscal '23, your sales outlook is unchanged from like 90 days ago. But if you just had weakness this quarter because you couldn't meet it with supply, and then that's continuing to get into Q4. Why wouldn't actually fiscal '23 be a stronger outlook than 90 days ago?

我相信您提到過，2023財年的銷售預期與90天前相比沒有變化。但如果您本季業績疲軟是因為供應不足，而且這種情況持續到第四季度，那麼為什麼2023財年的預期反而不會比90天前更好呢？

Well, what I'd say is that we're taking a balanced view to '23 as we look at it now. We've not guided to '23. The number in consensus is it's $4.2 billion. I don't think that's a terrible number for the use and reference and we'll guide appropriately as we go through time.

嗯，我想說的是，我們目前對2023年持平衡態度。我們沒有給出2023年的業績指引。市場普遍認為2023年的營收是42億美元。我認為這個數字作為參考還不錯，我們會根據實際情況隨時調整指引。

But remember, we're not expecting all of the particular component demand, I mean, the supply issues that we have seen to ameliorate immediately. And our balanced view is that it will improve, but not get us to the point where we could deliver everything in our backlog next year. By the way, I hope I'm wrong. If we could deliver -- if we could get more of these key components, we will deliver more revenue. But that's not our expectation today.

但請記住，我們並不指望所有特定零件的需求，也就是我們目前遇到的供應問題會立即得到緩解。我們比較樂觀的看法是，情況會有所改善，但明年我們可能無法交付所有積壓訂單。順便說一句，我希望我的判斷是錯的。如果我們能夠交付——如果我們能夠獲得更多這些關鍵零件，我們的收入就會增加。但這並非我們目前的預期。

Jim, this is Gary. I mean, I think, obviously, we're not guiding to '23 right now. We haven't finished this year, and that's been -- and that's challenging enough right now, given the supply chain pieces that we're seeing. But given the backlog we've got and the amelioration activities were in place, if all stays in the course of its own. We will start to see improvements as we get into '23. A bit too early to call that. Consensus right now is about $4.2 billion, as Jim said, and I think that's probably a reasonable -- probably a reasonable number, given what we're seeing.

吉姆，我是加里。我的意思是，很顯然，我們現在不會預測2023年的表現。今年還沒結束，而且鑑於我們目前看到的供應鏈問題，今年的挑戰已經相當大了。但考慮到我們目前的積壓訂單以及已經採取的補救措施，如果一切按計劃進行，我們預計2023年將會出現一些改善。現在下結論還為時過早。正如吉姆所說，目前的普遍預期是42億美元左右，我認為考慮到我們目前的情況，這可能是個合理的數字。

I understand the math. We went into this year planning for double-digit growth. When you sort of step back from it, if you get to sort of the midpoint of the guide in Q4, we've basically taken that number down by about $0.5 billion. And that's really all supply chain related. I understand the point, does that all roll into next year? It doesn't work like that because I don't think there's going to be a magic switch on supply chain. But that's probably the best number we have right now.

我明白其中的計算。我們今年的預期是兩位數成長。但如果從整體來看，到了第四季業績指引的中點，我們基本上已經將目標下調了約5億美元。這主要都與供應鏈有關。我明白你的意思，這些影響會延續到明年嗎？事情並非如此，因為我認為供應鏈不會有什麼神奇的轉變。但這可能是我們目前能給的最佳預測了。

And then my follow-up is other companies have gone to the broker market or secondhand market when they've had some shortages of part. I assumed you probably tried to, but it just happened so late in the quarter that would happen? Because if you said they're low-priced parts and a handful, why not pay up a bit of a premium and still get your product out the door into sale.

然後我的後續問題是，其他公司在零件短缺時也會選擇從中間商或二手市場進貨。我猜你們可能也嘗試過，但事情發生得太晚了，以至於錯過了最佳時機？因為既然你們說這些零件價格低廉且數量有限，為什麼不多付一點溢價，讓產品順利上市銷售呢？

We certainly have gone to the broker market. That's one of the reasons -- in fact, it's the biggest reason why our margins have deteriorated from the sort of mid-40s level. But I'll tell you this, that the broker market is not as robust as it was a year ago because everybody is going there to buy their parts. So we've done it. We do it where we can, and we'll continue to do it.

我們當然已經進入經紀商市場了。這是原因之一——事實上，也是我們利潤率從40%左右的水平下滑的主要原因。但我必須指出，經紀商市場不如一年前那麼活躍了，因為大家都湧向那裡採購零件。所以我們這麼做了。只要條件允許，我們都會這麼做，而且我們會繼續這麼做。

The next question comes from Tim Long with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的提姆朗。

Yes, I got 2 as well. First one, sorry to beat that horse here, but we hear all the mitigations and whatnot that you guys have been going through for the supply chain here. Just -- it's been a long time here coming and most of the industry are improving, not getting worse. So when you think about kind of higher level you think about your procurement, your ability to estimate, ability to redesign. What have you guys been doing as far as like processes internally and personnel to try to address these problems better.

是的，我也有兩個問題。第一個問題，不好意思老生常談，但我們聽說了你們為了供應鏈採取的各種緩解措施等等。只是——這個問題已經存在很久了，而且大多數行業都在改善，而不是惡化。所以，當我們從更高層次思考時，會想到你們的採購能力、估算能力和重新設計能力。你們在內部流程和人員方面都做了哪些工作來更好地解決這些問題？

So not just kind of what you guys have done, but what kind of investments are you making in people and process to ensure that it doesn't continue to happen? And then I got a follow-up on web-scale.

所以，不僅僅是你們已經做了什麼，而是你們在人員和流程方面進行了哪些投資，以確保這種情況不再發生？然後我又收到了一個關於網路規模的後續問題。

Tim, let me walk you through the steps and mitigation, including your processes and people questions. So first and foremost, obviously, we're out there from a process perspective. putting a large demand on the supply base with long lead times. And in fact, overriding their lead times and actually extending them. So that's one.

提姆，讓我帶你了解各個步驟和應對措施，包括流程和人員方面的問題。首先，也是最重要的一點，顯然，我們是從流程的角度出發的。我們對供應商提出了很大的需求，交貨週期也很長。事實上，我們甚至破壞了他們的交貨週期，並延長了交貨時間。這是第一點。

Number two is, we've stepped in to put ourselves between ourselves and the direct component suppliers, where in the old world, when these things are moving on 90-day turn times, the contract manufacturers would do a lot of that. So we have added resources basically to manage the component suppliers and chase parts, if you like, directly ourselves. Obviously, there's a focus in terms of governance on the key components of our challenges.

第二點是，我們介入了自身與零件供應商之間的環節。過去，如果交貨週期只有90天，合約製造商通常會承擔大部分工作。因此，我們增加了資源，直接管理零件供應商並跟進供貨。顯然，我們在治理方面專注於我們面臨的關鍵挑戰。

We have brought significant more resources from an engineering perspective to bear on the redesign activities throughout the year. Those will pay off, but they will pay off in front of us because they are longer lead time. And we've made significant investments in our manufacturing capacity such that when the specific constrain components get solved, we can turn that into finished goods and start servicing our customers faster than we would have been able to before. So we're looking at all aspects of that. They will pay off. It's just these are -- things will that take time.

我們從工程角度投入了大量資源，用於全年的重新設計工作。這些投入終將有所回報，但由於需要更長的交付週期，回報將來得更快。同時，我們也對生產能力進行了大量投資，以便在特定限制組件的問題解決後，能夠更快地將其轉化為成品，並開始為客戶提供服務。因此，我們正在全面考慮所有方面。這些投入終將有所回報，只是這些都需要時間。

Tim, the other thing I'd add to that is, I think we've basically done all of the right things, and we were very proactive with it, and we tried to get out ahead of that 18 months ago. And I look at all the things that we've done, and frankly, I think it's all the right stuff. We have a supply chain team in process that has navigated through some incredible challenges and outperformed everybody else. If you were to be in hindsight to it, which is a wonderful thing. Would we have bought some of that engineering talent in early to get multi-sourcing?

提姆，我還要補充一點，我認為我們基本上已經做了所有正確的事情，而且我們非常積極主動，早在18個月前我們就試圖提前做好準備。回顧我們所做的一切，坦白說，我認為都是正確的做法。我們正在組建一支供應鏈團隊，他們克服了許多巨大的挑戰，並且表現優於其他所有團隊。如果事後看來（這當然是一件好事），我們是否應該更早引進一些工程人才來實現多源採購呢？

Maybe. But the challenge is we wouldn't know which components to focus on, quite frankly, so it won't be defensive to it, but I don't think there's really much else we could have done as we do -- as you look through that hindsight's a wonderful thing. But the other thing I'd say, Tim, is we're not happy with where we are in terms of the performance. We're about $0.5 billion down because of this issue and impacting customers. But I would say we are experiencing more relative and absolute demand than anybody else, and we are still shipping more equipment than anyone else in our space. So I would remind everybody of that.

也許吧。但坦白說，問題在於我們不知道應該重點關注哪些方面，所以無法採取防禦措施。不過，我覺得我們當時也確實沒什麼其他辦法了──事後諸葛亮當然是好事。但提姆，我還想說的是，我們對目前的業績並不滿意。由於這個問題，我們損失了大約5億美元，也影響了客戶。但我想說的是，我們目前的相對需求和絕對需求都高於其他任何公司，而且我們的設備出貨量也仍然高於同領域的其他公司。所以我想提醒大家這一點。

Okay. And just a follow-up on the web-scale. I noticed kind of was down a little bit more sequentially, particularly as you compare to service providers. So curious about that. And related to that, I would guess web-scalers are probably your most inpatient customer base. With all this stuff going on, it seems like once you introduce an optical system, there's a lot of drama around the componentry where in a pluggable so not as much, much lower bill of material, much smaller part count.

好的。關於網路規模，我還有一點後續問題。我注意到它的環比略有下降，尤其是在與服務提供者相比時。對此我很好奇。另外，我猜網路規模用戶可能是你們最沒有耐心的客戶群。鑑於目前的情況，一旦引入光學系統，組件方面似乎就會出現許多問題，而可插拔組件則不然，物料清單成本更低，零件數量也更少。

So is there a risk to that customer base that the potential transition to more pluggables in their network could accelerate because of the more difficulty around a system sale?

那麼，由於系統銷售更加困難，客戶群是否會面臨風險，即網路中向更多可插拔設備的過渡可能會加速？

Tim, I'll let Scott take the pluggable part of that. My answer to that would be no, we're absolutely not seeing that. Web-scale were down in revenue for the quarter. That's just really turbulence from supply chain. What was the question? The answer is supply chain. So I think that the demand we're seeing -- very strong order flow for our systems, 6500 architecture around the web-scale players. And I think they'll be -- continue to be robust as we go through '23. On the pluggables side, Scott, do you want to talk about direct.

提姆，關於可插拔組件的部分，我讓史考特來談談。我的回答是，不，我們絕對沒有看到這種情況。本季網路規模業務的收入有所下降，這完全是供應鏈動盪造成的。剛才的問題是什麼？答案是供應鏈。所以我認為，我們目前看到的需求——針對我們系統（尤其是圍繞網路規模廠商的 6500 系列架構）的強勁訂單流——將會持續強勁，直到 2023 年。史考特，關於可插拔組件，你想談談直接銷售嗎？

Just, Tim, where we are deployed today from a web-scale perspective, is not the patch where pluggables have applicability. As we said in the past, that pluggable conversation in the web-scale space for the most part for us is new territory and potential upside. So what you're seeing when you look quarter-over-quarter or period-over-period is 100% supply chain-related. We referenced one of the key challenge areas for us is modems.

提姆，就我們目前從網路規模的角度來看的部署情況而言，可插拔元件並不適用。正如我們之前所說，在網路規模領域，可插拔組件的應用對我們來說基本上是一個全新的領域，蘊藏著巨大的潛力。因此，你看到的季度環比或週期環比數據，100%都與供應鏈相關。我們之前提到過，調變解調器是我們面臨的關鍵挑戰之一。

They're obviously a big consumer of modem. So the 2 correlate very well. On pluggables in general, as we said consistently, we think it's very early innings for that ZR pluggable application. We're confident that we have the best plug available. We've shipped them to 45-plus customers, including the large web-scale pieces of it. We think that's going to be a growing piece of our business as we go into 2023 as well.

他們顯然是調製解調器的大用戶。所以這兩者之間關聯性很強。至於可插拔設備，正如我們一直強調的，我們認為ZR可插拔設備的應用還處於早期階段。我們有信心我們擁有目前市面上最好的插頭。我們已經向超過45家客戶發貨，其中包括一些大型網路應用。我們認為，到2023年，這部分業務也將持續成長。

Our next question comes from Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的羅德·霍爾。

I guess I wanted to come back to the range of outcomes that's possible in 2023. I think what you guys have said is your long-term growth model is 6% to 8%, and that would begin in 2023. And obviously, now the supply situation has become much less predictable and certainly could run into the beginning of '23. I think you would agree with that.

我想回到2023年可能出現的各種結果。你們之前說過，你們的長期成長模型是6%到8%，而這應該從2023年開始。顯然，現在的供應情況變得更加難以預測，而且很可能會持續到2023年初。我想你們也會同意這一點。

And on the other hand, you have this huge backlog and you could see much higher growth in that range in 2023. So I wonder if you would be willing to at least say from a breadth of outcomes point of view that it's a possibility if this supply situation were to persist in the beginning of the year that you might even be below that 6% to 8% range and acknowledging that it's also possible you could be well above consensus.

另一方面，你們目前積壓了大量訂單，2023 年這個區間可能會出現更高的成長。所以我想問，從各種可能的結果來看，如果這種供應狀況在年初持續下去，你們的增長率甚至有可能低於 6% 到 8% 的區間，同時我也承認，你們的增長率也有可能遠高於市場普遍預期。

But I think when I hear back from investors this morning, some of them are saying, "Hey, this is a stock I would like to own", clearly, the demand situation is great. But given the supply uncertainty, the 2023 numbers could be a little bit punchy if this supply thing continues to be a problem in the beginning of the year. So I just wonder if you could kind of comment on how that range looks to you and what the risk to the maybe even the 6% to 8% growth might be. And then I have a follow-up.

但我覺得今天早上我收到一些投資者的反饋，他們說：“嘿，這隻股票我很想持有”，顯然，需求情況很好。但考慮到供應的不確定性，如果年初供應問題持續存在，2023年的數據可能會有些波動。所以我想請您談談您對這個區間的看法，以及6%到8%的成長可能面臨的風險。我還有一個後續問題。

Here would be my more response to that, Rod. First of all, we're not giving guidance for '23. We haven't finished '22 yet. So we normally give that as we turn the year. You're absolutely right. I mean look, what happened in '22, supply chain, et cetera. I would say that given what we're seeing now, if that does not deteriorate, then we have very high confidence in exceeding our 6% to 8%. If you look at sort of $4.2 billion, let's just take that as the current consensus based on our midpoint there, that's more than 20% growth. That's entirely possible if the supply chain set stays with some stability and we fix some of these particular issues that we're seeing right now, more than that right now would be kind of speculation.

羅德，我對此的回應是這樣的。首先，我們不提供2023年的業績指引。 2022年還沒結束。通常情況下，我們會在年初發布業績指引。你說得完全正確。我的意思是，看看2022年的情況，供應鏈等等。就目前的情況來看，如果情況沒有惡化，那麼我們非常有信心實現超過6%到8%的成長目標。假設目前的共識是42億美元，我們姑且以此為中間值，那麼成長超過20%。如果供應鏈保持穩定，並且我們能夠解決目前遇到的一些具體問題，那麼實現20%的成長完全有可能。當然，如果成長超過20%，現在就下結論還為時過早。

The whole point there, Rod, is that the number, 6% to 8% is not a meaningful number right now. we have a depressed level of revenue this year. So 6% to 8% is -- it's not a relevant number.

羅德，關鍵在於，6%到8%這個數字現在毫無意義。我們今年的收入水準很低。所以，6%到8%——這個數字並不相關。

And as Gary said, we haven't guided to next year, and it's very hard for us to give a range on our guide that we haven't given. So what I would say is we've got a big backlog, and it could be a lot higher than that if we got the parts.

正如加里所說，我們還沒有發布明年的業績指引，也很難給出我們尚未發布的業績指引範圍。所以我只能說，我們積壓的訂單很多，如果零件供應充足，訂單量可能會更高。

Yes. Makes sense. Okay. And then the second question I had, I guess, is mostly for you, Gary, but it's related to the sales force. You had mentioned that you're accruing less for the cost plan and or incentive-based compensation. I wonder, are you worried that it's going to be tough to retain salespeople. The labor market is still pretty tight. There are, I guess, other peripheral companies maybe not an optical that are having better luck on supply. So I wonder how you're feeling about retention of salespeople, what the plan there is.

是的，有道理。好的。那麼我的第二個問題，我想主要是問你的，Gary，但它和銷售團隊有關。你提到過，你們在成本計畫和/或激勵性薪酬方面的投入減少了。我想知道，你是否擔心留住銷售人員會很困難？勞動市場仍然很緊張。我想，其他一些相關公司，也許不是光學公司，在人員供應方面的情況要好一些。所以我想了解你對留住銷售人員的看法，以及你們的計畫是什麼。

Listen, that's a good question. The large amount of the bonus accrual that we changed, for [Jim] is actually non-sales related and most, not all, of the sales force there actually comped on orders. So I mean we've had an extraordinary order year. So I feel pretty good, Rod, that the sales force quite rightly have been on the whole well compensated. And we have a highly tenured sales force. We have the largest and best equipped optical sales force in the world. And I'm talking about systems engineering and the sales folks as well. So I think they are largely compensated on orders. So they generally had a pretty good year.

聽著，問得好。在我們調整的獎金累積方式中，很大一部分實際上與銷售無關，[吉姆] 的獎金並非全部都與銷售相關，而且大部分（並非全部）銷售人員的薪酬都是按訂單量計算的。我的意思是，我們今年的訂單量非常驚人。所以羅德，我覺得銷售人員總體上都得到了應有的豐厚回報，這完全合情合理。我們的銷售團隊經驗豐富，而且是全球規模最大、設備最精良的光學銷售團隊。我指的是系統工程師和銷售人員，所以我認為他們的薪酬很大程度上是按訂單量計算的。總的來說，他們今年的業績相當不錯。

But the question does pertain to our general employee -- but -- and of course, we're not happy to lower the accrual range for our general set of employees. We have, in the last couple of years, paid out very well. against that incentive comp plan. And this year is probably not going to be as good at our accrual reflects that, but we're trying to deal with that as best we can with merit and other things.

但這個問題確實與我們全體員工有關——當然，我們並不樂意降低全體員工的應計獎金範圍。過去幾年，我們根據這項激勵性薪酬計畫支付的獎金非常豐厚。今年的情況可能不如往年，應計獎金也反映了這一點，但我們正在盡力透過績效和其他措施來解決這個問題。

The next question comes from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 公司的 Amit Daryanani。

Perfect. Glad I snuck in here. I guess maybe the first -- I have 2 as well, but the first one I have is I think July quarter, you talked about a $60 million miss due to the supply chain issues. The October quarter guidance, I think $240 million below the Street was what you had implied in the past. Is all of that really related to the same supply chain issues? Is it something else happens, it almost seems like a factor of 4 that's affecting our October quarter guide versus July.

太好了。很高興我能插上話。我想第一個問題——我也有兩個問題，但第一個問題是關於7月份的季度業績，您提到由於供應鏈問題，業績比預期低了6000萬美元。至於10月的季度業績指引，您之前暗示過會比華爾街的預期低2.4億美元。所有這些真的都和同樣的供應鏈問題有關嗎？還是另有其他原因？感覺10月的業績指引比7月的低了近4倍。

And then what is the top of recovery from what you're hearing from the suppliers? Is it going to happen in Q1? Or is there a much longer lead time for this recovery of the bottleneck to alleviate?

那麼，根據您從供應商那裡了解到的情況，預計何時能夠恢復正常？會在第一季實現嗎？還是需要更長的時間才能緩解瓶頸問題？

Amit, in general, if I heard him understood the question correctly, the space that is the challenge is consistent between Q3 and Q4. It's that small number of IC components that we talked about that is getting in the way of us maximizing the production of (inaudible). So it's the same challenge. A little bit different dynamic, though in Q3.

總的來說，如果我沒理解錯的話，Amit 對問題的理解是正確的，那麼 Q3 和 Q4 面臨的挑戰本質上是一樣的。我們之前討論過的少量積體電路元件限制了我們最大程度地提高（聽不清楚）的產量。所以挑戰是一樣的。不過，Q3 的情況略有不同。

In Q3, obviously, we had a perspective going into our Q3 guide of what the commitments were on all components, including those. And in that particular case in those components, those commitments weren't met. And they were -- it was too late for us to mitigate it going into Q4, same sort of dynamic and set of components and we're giving you our perspective as the environments and commitments sit today.

顯然，在第三季度，我們在製定第三季度業績指南時，已經對所有組成部分（包括上述部分）的承諾有了明確的預期。但就這些組成部分而言，我們未能履行這些承諾。而且，到了第四季度，我們已無力回天，無法彌補這一損失。第四季的情況與第四季類似，涉及的組成部分也相同。因此，我們只能根據當前的情況和承諾情況，向您提供我們的看法。

Got it. And then could you just touch on how do you think free cash flow stacks up in Q4 and fiscal '23. I mean is working capital is still going to be a use of free cash flow in Q4. So potentially negative, our leading free cash flow to improve -- I'd love to understand free cash flow expectations for Q4 and then broadly for '23.

明白了。接下來您能否談談您對2023財年第四季和全年自由現金流的看法？我的意思是，第四季營運資本是否仍會佔用自由現金流？如果是，營運資本支出可能為負值；我們預計自由現金流將有所改善——我很想了解您對第四季度以及整個2023財年自由現金流的預期。

Yes. What I'd say is that we consumed a fair amount of our free cash in Q3. We built a lot of inventory. My guess is that we will probably build a little more inventory as we move through the next couple of quarters. And hopefully, as '23 progresses and if we get to the kind of numbers we're looking at, then that inventory level will start to decline. And our free cash flow will start to build next year. So I think next year, we'll have a good free cash flow. I won't qualify that in any other way except to say we'll have a good free cash flow next year.

是的。我想說的是，我們在第三季消耗了相當一部分自由現金流。我們囤積了大量庫存。我估計在接下來的幾個季度裡，庫存還會略有增加。希望隨著2023年的推進，如果我們能達到預期的績效目標，那麼庫存水準就會開始下降。我們的自由現金流也會在明年開始成長。所以我認為明年我們的自由現金流會很不錯。我對此沒有其他補充說明，只能說我們明年的自由現金流會很不錯。

Thank you, everybody, for joining us today. We do look forward to connecting with everyone during the day today as well as a few events next week. Enjoy the Labor Day weekend, and look forward to connecting with you.

感謝各位今天蒞臨。我們期待今天與大家交流，也期待下週的幾項活動。祝大家勞動節週末愉快，期待與您再次相聚。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以斷開連線了。