Ciena Corp (CIEN) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ciena announcements reporting date and web broadcast for fiscal fourth quarter and year-end 2021 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

您好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加Ciena公司2021財年第四季及全年業績發布電話會議，本次會議將進行網路直播。 （操作說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。 （操作說明）

I would now like to hand the conference over to Gregg Lampf, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將會議交給投資者關係副總裁格雷格·蘭普夫先生。請開始吧。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Ciena's 2021 Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Year-End Review. On the call today is Gary Smith, President and CEO; and Jim Moylan, CFO. Scott McFeely, our Senior Vice President of Global Products and Services, is also with us for Q&A.

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加Ciena 2021財年第四季及全年回顧電話會議。今天出席會議的有總裁兼執行長Gary Smith和財務長Jim Moylan。全球產品與服務資深副總裁Scott McFeely也將參與問答環節。

In addition to this call and the press release, we have posted to the Investors section of our website and accompanying investor presentation that reflects this discussion as well as certain highlighted items in the quarter and the fiscal year. Our commentary today speak to our recent performance, our view on current market dynamics and drivers of our business as well as a discussion of our financial outlook. Today's discussion includes certain adjusted or non-GAAP measures of Ciena's results of operations, a detailed reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results is included in today's press release.

除了本次電話會議和新聞稿之外，我們還在公司網站的「投資者關係」版塊發布了相關投資者演示文稿，其中反映了本次討論的內容以及本季度和本財年的一些重點事項。我們今天的評論將闡述我們近期的業績表現、我們對當前市場動態和業務驅動因素的看法，以及對財務前景的展望。今天的討論涉及Ciena公司經營績效的某些調整後或非GAAP指標，這些非GAAP指標與GAAP結果的詳細調節表已包含在今天的新聞稿中。

Before turning the call over to Gary, I'll remind you that during this call, we'll be making certain forward-looking statements. Such statements, including our quarterly and annual guidance and long-term financial targets, discussion of market opportunities and strategy, and commentary about the impact of COVID-19 and supply constraints are based on current expectations, forecasts and assumptions regarding the company and its markets, which include risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements discussed today. These statements should be viewed in the context of the risk factors detailed in our most recent 10-Q filing and in our upcoming 10-K filing. Our 10-K is required to be filed with the SEC by December 29, and we expect to file by that date.

在將電話轉交給 Gary 之前，我想提醒各位，本次電話會議中我們將做出一些前瞻性陳述。這些陳述，包括我們的季度和年度業績指引、長期財務目標、市場機會和策略探討，以及關於 COVID-19 疫情影響和供應鏈限制的評論，均基於我們對公司及其市場的當前預期、預測和假設，其中包含可能導致實際結果與今天討論的陳述存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。這些陳述應結合我們最新 10-Q 報告和即將提交的 10-K 報告中詳述的風險因子進行解讀。我們的 10-K 報告須於 12 月 29 日前提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)，我們預計將按時提交。

Ciena assumes no obligation to update the information discussed in this conference call, whether as a result of the new information, future events or otherwise. As always, we will allow for as much Q&A as possible today. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded and will be available for replay on the Investors page of our website shortly after the call is concluded.

Ciena不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而更新本次電話會議中所討論資訊的義務。我們將一如既往地盡可能地安排問答環節。 （操作說明）本次電話會議正在錄音，會議結束後不久即可在公司網站的投資者關係頁面收聽回放。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Gary.

接下來，我將把電話交給加里。

Thanks, Gregg, and good morning, everyone. Today, we reported strong fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2021 results. This performance further demonstrates our continued ability to successfully navigate challenging market conditions and to deliver on the objectives and financial outlook we laid out as we entered the year, including annual revenue growth of 2.5%, which was at the high end of our expectations; fiscal '21 adjusted gross margin of 48%, which exceeded our forecast; and adjusted operating margin of 16.8% for the full year, also above our original forecast.

謝謝格雷格，大家早安。今天，我們公佈了強勁的2021財年第四季和全年業績。這項表現進一步證明了我們持續成功應對充滿挑戰的市場環境，並實現了年初制定的目標和財務展望，包括2.5%的年度營收成長（達到預期上限）；48%的2021財年調整後毛利率（超出預期）；以及16.8%的全年調整後營業利潤率（同樣高於預期）。

Revenue in the fourth quarter exceeded $1 billion for the first time, and came in higher than expected. Additionally, orders in the quarter were once again significantly higher than revenue. And with our third consecutive quarter of orders outpacing revenue, we have substantial momentum and increased confidence in the demand environment. We ended the year with our highest ever backlog of approximately $2.2 billion. We doubled our backlog of a year ago. This performance, I think, reflects our market leadership within a very strong demand environment. Specifically, the combination of our differentiated balance sheet, leading innovation and R&D capabilities, and deep and growing customer relationships around the globe give us a distinct strategic advantage in the industry. And of course, our people continue to amaze us with their resilience and kindness that they continue to perform the absolutely highest levels.

第四季營收首度突破10億美元大關，超乎預期。此外，本季訂單量再次顯著高於營收。訂單量連續第三個季度超過營收，這讓我們擁有強勁的成長勢頭，並對市場需求充滿信心。年底，我們的積壓訂單總額達到約22億美元，創歷史新高，是去年同期的兩倍。我認為，這項業績反映了我們在強勁需求環境下的市場領導地位。具體而言，我們差異化的資產負債表、領先的創新和研發能力，以及遍佈全球且不斷深化的客戶關係，使我們在產業中擁有獨特的策略優勢。當然，員工的韌性和友善也讓我們倍感欣慰，他們始終保持著卓越的工作表現。

Some highlights from the fourth quarter and fiscal year. Our focused investments are in 3 key areas: Optical, Routing and Switching, and Software Automation. And they are yielding great results. In Optical, we continue to lead the market in high-capacity coherent technology. Q4 was a record quarter for WaveLogic 5 Extreme. We added 34 new customers, including 13 new logos and in all regions. Our total customer count for WaveLogic 5e is now 140 globally, and we've shipped nearly 25,000 modems to date. We've also shared our first customer orders in Q4 for our WaveLogic 5 Nano coherent pluggable optics. We had a strong quarter in Routing and Switching, and we continue to build momentum in this space.

以下是第四季和本財年的一些亮點。我們的重點投資集中在三大關鍵領域：光纖、路由和交換以及軟體自動化。這些投資已取得顯著成效。在光纖領域，我們持續引領高容量相干技術市場。第四季是WaveLogic 5 Extreme創紀錄的季度。我們新增了34家客戶，其中包括13家新客戶，遍佈全球各地區。目前，WaveLogic 5e的全球客戶總數已達140家，迄今已出貨近25,000台數據機。此外，我們在第四季也收到了WaveLogic 5 Nano相干可插拔光模組的首批客戶訂單。路由和交換領域在本季表現強勁，我們將繼續保持這一領域的成長動能。

In Q4, we secured a dozen new wins, including significant multiyear deals with 2 of the largest U.S. Tier 1 service providers, one of which is for a nationwide 5G sale site router deployment. Additionally, we've now closed the deal with AT&T to acquire its Vyatta, virtual routing and switching technology which will help strengthen our Adaptive IP capabilities and increase our exposure to certain 5G use cases. We also announced a partnership with Samsung to couple our excellent solutions, Next-Gen MCP demand controller and services, with Samsung 5G core and RAN equipment to support global 5G networks.

第四季度，我們斬獲十餘項新訂單，其中包括與兩家美國最大的Tier 1服務提供商簽署的多年期重要協議，其中一項是為其部署覆蓋全美的5G銷售站點路由器。此外，我們已完成與AT&T的收購，獲得其Vyatta虛擬路由和交換技術，這將有助於增強我們的自適應IP能力，並拓展我們在特定5G應用場景中的應用。我們也宣布與三星建立合作夥伴關係，將我們卓越的下一代MCP需求控制器和服務與三星的5G核心網和無線接入網（RAN）設備相結合，以支援全球5G網路建設。

Moving to our software automation business. Blue Planet performed well in FY '21, growing 23% in the year to deliver annual revenue of $77 million, which again was above the high end of our target revenue as well as record bookings in the Europe. Some of the marketing wins in the year for Blue Planet including British Telecom, Vodafone and [cult] as well as the major U.S. Tier 1 service provider and launch U.S. MSO.

接下來談談我們的軟體自動化業務。 Blue Planet 在 2021 財年表現出色，全年成長 23%，實現年收入 7,700 萬美元，再次超越我們預期的高端目標，並在歐洲創下訂單量新高。 Blue Planet 在這一年取得的一些行銷成果包括與英國電信、沃達豐和 [cult] 等公司的合作，以及與美國一家主要的一級服務供應商和一家美國 MSO 的合作。

I also want to highlight our global services business, which grew 7% year-over-year, with revenue growing across each of our service categories, and earning a 95% customer satisfaction rating in 2021. And also as part of that, really advancing a key part of our strategy. We landed major network migration wins, including 3 U.S. Tier 1 service providers and an international Tier 1 service provider.

我還想重點介紹一下我們的全球服務業務，該業務同比增長7%，所有服務類別的收入均實現增長，並在2021年獲得了95%的客戶滿意度。同時，作為該業務成長的一部分，我們也切實推進了我們策略的關鍵部分。我們成功拿下了幾項重要的網路遷移項目，其中包括3家美國一級服務供應商和1家國際一級服務供應商。

Shifting to diversification in our business across both customers and regions. Our top 10 customers for the year, including 3 U.S. service providers, 2 international service providers, 1 MSO and all 4 major web gamers, strong illustration of the continued diversity in our business. And in fact, our non-telco revenue was 41% of total revenues for the year.

我們正朝著業務多元化方向發展，涵蓋更廣泛的客戶群和地區。我們年度十大客戶包括三家美國服務供應商、兩家國際服務供應商、一家多系統營運商 (MSO) 以及全部四大網路遊戲公司，這充分體現了我們業務的持續多元化。事實上，我們全年非電信業務收入佔總收入的 41%。

Also of note, in FY '21, we had more than $1 billion in orders from web-scale customers. We also performed well once again in Submarine segment, gaining more than 2% market share year-over-year, bringing our SLTE market share for the mid-50s. And finally, international growth was also strong, led by EMEA and India, which each grew at [15%] year-over-year. Overall, secular demand remains very strong, driven by increasing bandwidth needs, the shift to the cloud, and also the focus on edge applications as well as digital transformation and a growing need in network automation. And we continue to take full advantage of our leading position to address these network priorities. And we're making forward investments in our portfolio and go-to-market resources that are aligned to these trends and longer-term opportunities.

值得一提的是，在2021財年，我們獲得了來自網路規模客戶的超過10億美元的訂單。我們在海底光纜領域也再次表現出色，市佔率年增超過2%，使我們的SLTE市佔率達到50%以上。此外，國際市場成長強勁，其中歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及印度市場均實現了15%的年成長。總體而言，長期需求仍然強勁，這主要得益於不斷增長的頻寬需求、向雲端遷移、對邊緣應用的關注、數位轉型以及日益增長的網路自動化需求。我們將繼續充分利用自身領先地位，滿足這些網路領域的優先需求。同時，我們也在產品組合和市場推廣資源方面進行前瞻性投資，以順應這些趨勢和長期機會。

As an example, we are leveraging now our people expertise to offer a new architectural approach to address Nex-Gen metro and edge use cases. Where we are investing to expand our total addressable market in this growing market from about $13 billion overall currently to roughly $22 billion over the next several years.

例如，我們目前正利用我們的人才專長，提供一種全新的架構方法來應對下一代城域網路和邊緣運算應用場景。我們正在加大投資，力爭在未來幾年內將我們在這一不斷增長的市場中的潛在市場規模從目前的約130億美元擴大到約220億美元。

I would also like to highlight the development of critical assets in software automation, including network layer automation with MCP. This is our micro services-based domain controller that has now been adopted by the vast majority of our customers around the world. Also a differentiated software for our Adaptive IP approach, and this can be deployed as embedded even in Routing and Switching portfolio on mic boxes or virtually.

我還想重點介紹軟體自動化領域的關鍵資產開發，包括基於MCP的網路層自動化。 MCP是我們基於微服務的網域控制器，目前已被全球絕大多數客戶採用。此外，它也是一款針對我們自適應IP方案的差異化軟體，可以嵌入式部署，甚至可以整合到微控制器盒或虛擬路由交換產品組合中。

And finally, our multi-vendor Blue Planet services automation software; which is now deployed at 30 of the largest global carriers around the world to help drive their digital transformation efforts. These software elements are delivering unique innovation into marketplace and expanding our relationships with customers. Our overall software business currently constitutes less than 10% of our total revenue. We do see this growing over time as we expand both the adoption and applications, and move to more recurring and subscription-based models.

最後，我們還有多供應商的 Blue Planet 服務自動化軟體；該軟體目前已在全球 30 家最大的營運商中部署，以協助其數位轉型。這些軟體產品正在為市場帶來獨特的創新，並拓展我們與客戶的關係。目前，我們的軟體業務收入佔比不到總收入的 10%。我們預計，隨著軟體應用範圍的擴大和普及，以及向更多基於經常性和訂閱模式的模式轉型，這一比例將持續成長。

Of course, the strong secular demand for bandwidth for the automation remains challenged by the global supply chain constraints in the current environment, and we continue to believe that these supply challenges are likely to persist through at least to the middle of the calendar '22. And to be clear, supply conditions are adversely impacting product costs, availability and lead times as well as our overall supply chain operations. We expect these variables to affect our gross margin as well as the level and timing of revenue during fiscal '22. And we've obviously incorporated all of these elements and considerations in our guidance accordingly. However, as you can see from our performance to date, we continue to manage these challenges well. And while we are obviously not immune, we expect to continue to outperform others in this regard going forward.

當然，在當前環境下，自動化領域對頻寬的強勁長期需求仍然受到全球供應鏈限制的挑戰，我們仍然認為這些供應挑戰至少會持續到2022年。需要明確的是，供應狀況正在對產品成本、可用性和交貨週期以及我們的整體供應鏈營運產生不利影響。我們預計這些因素將影響我們2022財年的毛利率以及收入水準和時間。顯然，我們已將所有這些因素和考慮納入了我們的業績指引。然而，正如您從我們迄今為止的業績中所看到的，我們仍在有效地應對這些挑戰。雖然我們顯然無法完全避免這些挑戰，但我們預計未來在這方面將繼續優於其他公司。

In fact, we've entered fiscal year '22 with increased confidence and visibility. And in a moment, Jim will provide our outlook for FY '22, which we believe will be a year of outsized revenue growth for Ciena. And that is driven by several factors, including: number one, strong order flow and additional visibility to short-term customer purchasing decisions. Number two, overall, a return to historical customer spending levels to address the continued bandwidth demand following about 2 years of slow investment due to the pandemic. And thirdly, among the unique (inaudible) increased monetization on wins, both those that we've executed over the past couple of years as well as new awards. Jim will also provide a new set of long-term targets. We are confident in providing now given the positive demand environment and strength of our business and overall financial position. Jim?

事實上，我們帶著更強的信心和更清晰的前景進入了2022財年。稍後，Jim將介紹我們對2022財年的展望，我們相信這將是Ciena營收實現超常成長的一年。這主要得益於以下幾個因素：第一，強勁的訂單流以及對客戶短期採購決策更清晰的了解；第二，總體而言，客戶支出已恢復到歷史水平，以滿足在經歷了近兩年因疫情導致的投資放緩後持續增長的頻寬需求；第三，我們已成功完成的項目以及新獲得的項目，其盈利能力顯著提升。 Jim也將公佈一系列新的長期目標。鑑於積極的市場需求、我們業務的穩健發展以及整體財務狀況，我們有信心在此刻公佈這些目標。 Jim？

Thanks, Gary. Good morning, everyone. We delivered a solid Q4 performance. Total revenue in the quarter was $1.04 billion, somewhat [more] of our expectations. It is an awesome [forward]. It is the first ever $1 billion revenue quarter for Ciena, and there will be many more to come. And orders in the quarter significantly exceeded revenue. Q4 adjusted gross margin was 46.3%, which was within our guidance range, and reflects the dynamics we highlighted last quarter, primarily the impact of increased supply and logistics costs as well as increased monetization of new winners. Adjusted operating expense in the quarter was $307 million due to higher variable comp as a direct result of extremely strong order book at the end of the year.

謝謝，Gary。大家早安。我們第四季業績表現穩健。本季總營收為10.4億美元，略高於預期。這是一個令人振奮的業績。這是Ciena公司史上首個營收突破10億美元的季度，未來還會有更多這樣的佳績。本季訂單量也遠超營收。第四季調整後毛利率為46.3%，符合我們的預期範圍，反映了我們上季度重點強調的因素，主要是供應和物流成本增加以及新訂單獲利能力提升的影響。由於年底訂單量強勁，導致可比收入增加，本季調整後營運費用為3.07億美元。

With respect to profitability measures, in Q4, we delivered adjusted operating margin of 16.8%, adjusted net income of $132.7 million and adjusted EPS of $0.85. In addition, in Q4, our adjusted EBITDA was $199 million, and cash from operations was $255 million. Also in Q4, we repurchased approximately 494,000 shares for $26.7 million for a total of approximately 1.7 million shares repurchased in fiscal '21.

就獲利指標而言，第四季度我們實現了16.8%的調整後營業利潤率、1.327億美元的調整後淨利潤和0.85美元的調整後每股收益。此外，第四季我們調整後的EBITDA為1.99億美元，經營活動產生的現金流為2.55億美元。同樣在第四季度，我們回購了約49.4萬股股票，耗資2670萬美元，使得2021財年累計回購股票數量達到約170萬股。

Regarding our performance for the full fiscal year, annual revenue was $3.62 billion, which was at the high end of our annual guidance range. As Gary mentioned -- in the year was $2.2 billion in backlog. Adjusted gross margin was very strong for the year at 47.9%. And adjusted OpEx for fiscal '21 totaled $1.13 billion, largely as we expected.

就整個財年的業績而言，年度營收為36.2億美元，處於我們年度預期範圍的高端。正如Gary所提到的，本年度積壓訂單達22億美元。調整後的毛利率非常強勁，達到47.9%。 2021財年的調整後營運支出總額為11.3億美元，基本上符合我們的預期。

Moving to profitability. Adjusted operating margin in fiscal 2021 was 16.8% at the high end of our guidance range, and adjusted EPS was $2.91. Free cash flow for fiscal 2021 was (inaudible) at [$462] million or almost 75% of adjusted operating income. Our balance sheet remains a significant competitive differentiator. We ended the year with approximately $1.7 billion in cash and investments.

接下來談談獲利情況。 2021財年調整後營業利益率為16.8%，處於我們預期範圍的高端；調整後每股收益為2.91美元。 2021財年自由現金流為（聽不清楚）4.62億美元，約佔調整後營業收入的75%。我們的資產負債表仍然是一項重要的競爭優勢。截至年底，我們持有約17億美元的現金和投資。

Looking to the full fiscal year, we believe fiscal year '22 will be a year of all-sized growth for our business. We have strong visibility through our near-term opportunities, including our rent backlog entering the year. Customer spending is returning to the store levels, following 2 years of lower investment due to the pandemic and related economic uncertainty. More (inaudible) and need to Ciena in fiscal year '22 is that we are now monetizing our new wins and see increasing numbers of deployments for significant deals that we secured over the past couple of years as well as some new rules. Accordingly, we expect to grow our revenue in fiscal year 2022 in the range of 11% to 13%.

展望整個財年，我們相信2022財年將是公司業務全面成長的一年。我們對近期機會充滿信心，包括年初的租金儲備。在經歷了兩年因疫情及相關經濟不確定性導致的投資減少後，顧客支出正逐步恢復到門市水準。此外，Ciena在2022財年需要更多（聽不清楚）的因素是，我們正在將新贏得的業務轉化為收益，並且看到過去幾年達成的重大交易以及一些新規的部署數量不斷增加。因此，我們預計2022財年的營收成長率將在11%至13%之間。

With respect to global margins, we expect the dynamics to be solving the [delay] in order to continue in the (inaudible) specifically the impact of automotive supply chain challenges that are manifesting in significant cost increases and higher logistics speeds will continue, and increased monetization of multiple new wins with initial performances and rollouts will also up (inaudible) gross margins. Accordingly, we believe that our gross margin for fiscal year '22 moving the range of 43% to 46%.

就全球利潤率而言，我們預計當前情況將逐步解決[延遲]問題，從而繼續（聽不清楚），特別是汽車供應鏈挑戰帶來的影響（表現為成本顯著上升和物流速度加快）將持續存在，同時，多個新項目憑藉其初步業績和推廣應用帶來的更高利潤也將提升（聽不清）毛利率。因此，我們預計2022財年的毛利率將在43%至46%之間。

For operating expense, we intend to continue investing strategically in our business. In particular, in our routing and switching and software automation portfolios to leverage our opportunities in these growing addressable markets. Therefore, we expect adjusted operating expense to average $300 million per quarter in fiscal '22.

在營運支出方面，我們計劃繼續對業務進行策略性投資，尤其是在路由交換和軟體自動化領域，以掌握這些不斷增長的潛在市場機會。因此，我們預計2022財年調整後的營運支出平均為每季3億美元。

As always, this number will be a quarter-to-quarter, and is expected to start a bit lower and increase through the year. We expect adjusted operating margin in fiscal '22 to be in the range of 15% to 16%. In addition, during fiscal '22, we will be making investments into the (inaudible) and accounts receivables in order to continue mitigating the impact of the ongoing supply chain challenges.

與往常一樣，該數字將按季度環比計算，預計年初會略低，然後逐年增長。我們預計2022財年調整後的營業利益率將在15%至16%之間。此外，在2022財年，我們將對（聽不清楚）和應收帳款進行投資，以持續減輕持續供應鏈挑戰帶來的影響。

As a result, we expect that our free cash flow in fiscal '22 will be 50% to 60% for (inaudible). For the coming quarter, Q1 '22, we expect to deliver revenue in a range of $870 million to $910 million, adjusted gross margin in the 43% to 46% range and adjusted operating expense of approximately $290 million.

因此，我們預計2022財年的自由現金流將佔（聽不清楚）的50%至60%。對於即將到來的2022財年第一季，我們預計營收將在8.7億美元至9.1億美元之間，調整後毛利率將在43%至46%之間，調整後營運費用約為2.9億美元。

At year end, strong secular demand is driving solid businesses and greater visibility for us, which puts us in a position to resume providing longer-term financial targets. Three-year target is the best indication of our long-term (inaudible) of the industry, and what to expect in [sand] over the next 3 years. Overall, we believe that we are well positioned to continue to deliver a combination of top line growth, profitability and cash flows. We believe the most important indicators of our performance and progress for revenue and (inaudible) On the top line, we expect industry growth to flow to (inaudible) in line with recent historical lows. And particularly in 2022, we intend to continue to (inaudible) and take market share as we have over the last decade.

年末強勁的長期需求推動業務穩健發展，提升了我們的業績可見度，使我們能夠恢復提供長期財務目標。三年目標是對產業長期發展前景的最佳體現，也預示著未來三年的發展趨勢。總體而言，我們相信我們已做好充分準備，能夠繼續實現營收成長、獲利能力和現金流的平衡。我們認為，衡量我們績效和進展的最重要指標是營收和（聽不清楚）。在營收方面，我們預期產業成長將達到（聽不清楚），與近期歷史低點持平。尤其是在2022年，我們計劃繼續（聽不清楚）並像過去十年一樣擴大市場份額。

Beginning in fiscal '23, we expect to present annual revenue growth range of approximately 6% to 8%. With respect to adjusted earnings per share, as we returned to historical revenue growth, and continue to focus on providing increased profitability in our business, we expect our EPS to resume growth. Specifically, we expect to grow our adjusted earnings per share in the 10% range in over the next couple of years. Also, as part of our long-term outlook beginning in '23 we are targeting annual free cash flow generation of approximately 75% to 85% of adjusted operating income over the next few years.

自2023財年起，我們預期年營收成長率約為6%至8%。關於調整後每股收益，隨著收入恢復到歷史增長水平，並持續致力於提升業務盈利能力，我們預計每股收益將恢復增長。具體而言，我們預計未來幾年調整後每股盈餘將成長10%左右。此外，作為我們2023年起長期展望的一部分，我們的目標是在未來幾年內實現年度自由現金流佔調整後營業收入的75%至85%左右。

Finally, with respect to operating margin, we continue to focus on driving leverage from our operating model, in particular, growing our operating expense and a lower rate than expected revenue growth will enable us to increase profitability. As a result, we are targeting to achieve adjusted operating margins of 17% to 18% for fiscal '24. With our strong balance sheet and our expectations for cash generation over the next several years, we are now in position to increase significant return of capital to our shareholders. We previously announced the program to repurchase up to $500 million of our common stock. Where we're told of completing those purchases by the end of fiscal '21. (inaudible) part several leases (inaudible) almost a year due to the pandemic and the resulting industry and market finance.

最後，關於營業利潤率，我們將繼續專注於提升營運模式的槓桿作用，特別是提高營運支出，同時降低低於預期的收入成長率，這將有助於我們提高獲利能力。因此，我們的目標是2024財年調整後的營業利益率達到17%至18%。憑藉我們強勁的資產負債表以及對未來幾年現金流的預期，我們現在有能力大幅提高股東的資本回報。我們先前宣布了回購至多5億美元普通股的計畫。據稱，這些回購將在2021財年末完成。 （聽不清楚）部分租賃（聽不清楚）由於疫情以及由此導致的產業和市場融資，回購工作將耗時近一年。

Today, we announced that our Board of Directors has authorized a new growth to repurchase up to $1 billion of common stock. Under this new authorization, we've also announced our intent to enter into a $250 million accelerated share repurchase arrangement, or ASR, where we more than make up the unused portion of our previous repurchase authorization. Final settlement for the ASR is expected to be completed in the second quarter of fiscal '22.

今天，我們宣布董事會已批准一項新的成長計劃，回購最多10億美元的普通股。根據這項新的授權，我們還宣布計劃達成2.5億美元的加速股票回購協議（ASR），以彌補我們先前回購授權中未使用的部分。 ASR的最終結算預計將於2022財年第二季完成。

Following completion of the ASR, the timing of the remaining $750 million purchases will be based on our stock price, general business and market conditions, our liquidity, the cash flow and other tariffs. Our intent is to fully utilize the repurchase authorization by the end of fiscal '24. We expect to finance program with cash on (inaudible) our cash and our operations. This new share repurchase authorization an ASR represents the next phase of our cash deployment, and demonstrate our commitment to return capital to shareholders while maintaining a meaningful [liquidity] accounts.

在完成ASR之後，剩餘7.5億美元的回購計畫的實施時間將取決於我們的股價、整體業務和市場狀況、流動性、現金流以及其他相關因素。我們的目標是在2024財政年度結束前充分利用回購授權。我們預計將以現金和營運資金為該計劃提供資金。這項新的股票回購授權（即ASR）標誌著我們現金部署的下一階段，也體現了我們致力於在保持充足流動性的同時，向股東返還資本的承諾。

In closing, we delivered various (inaudible) Q4 and '21 results despite challenges supply chain conditions. With a continued market leadership and a very strong demand environment as well as a significant factor ongoing into the year, we are confident on another strong performance in fiscal '22, including outsized revenue growth. For the longer term, our differentiated financial position will enable continued investments in innovation to address (inaudible) new edge applications through routing and switching technologies and digital transformation with our growing software automation portfolio.

最後，儘管面臨供應鏈挑戰，我們依然取得了第四季和2021財年的各項業績（聽不清楚）。憑藉著持續的市場領先地位、強勁的需求環境以及貫穿全年的重要因素，我們對2022財年的業績充滿信心，包括營收的大幅成長。展望未來，我們獨特的財務狀況將使我們能夠持續投資於創新，透過路由和交換技術以及不斷增長的軟體自動化產品組合實現數位轉型，從而滿足（聽不清楚）新的邊緣應用需求。

And we are in a strong position to return capital to our shareholders, and we intend to do so.

我們有能力向股東返還資本，我們也打算這麼做。

Operator, we'll now take questions on the sell-side. Before we start the Q&A, we recognize there are some audio quality issues with the webcast. Please note that all of this information is on the earnings presentation, including our guidance, and I would be happy to clarify anything that you like to Q&A.

接線員，現在我們開始回答賣方提出的問題。在問答環節開始之前，我們注意到網路直播的音訊品質存在一些問題。請注意，所有這些信息，包括我們的業績指引，都包含在收益報告中。如果您有任何疑問，我很樂意為您解答。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自高盛的 Rod Hall。

I guess I wanted to dig into this guidance for next year. I mean it's very strong relative to what we had expected. And I wonder if you could talk a little bit about some of the drivers within that. I know the sell-side site routing seems like a really big opportunity. I don't know, Gary, if you think that goes beyond this just this 1 installation or not, curious how big hyperscale is in that. So that's kind of the first question is, can you give us more color on what's driving that growth? And then I have one follow-up for you as well.

我想深入了解明年的業績指引。我的意思是，它比我們預期的要強大得多。我想請您談談其中的一些驅動因素。我知道賣方網站路由看起來是一個巨大的機會。 Gary，我不知道您認為這是否不僅限於這一個安裝項目，我很好奇超大規模在其中扮演著怎樣的角色。所以，我的第一個問題是，您能否更詳細地解釋一下推動這一成長的因素？我還有一個後續問題。

Yes. Rod, thank you. I would describe it as sort of -- it's the monetization of new wins that have sort of been on hold for a couple of years, plus the new wins that we're seeing. And the sell-side router opportunity, I think we've secured in this last quarter, the 2 large service providers in North America for switching and routing portfolio. So I think this is -- I view this as just the start, quite frankly.

是的，羅德，謝謝。我會這樣描述：一方面是過去幾年一直擱置的新業務的變現，另一方面是我們目前看到的新業務。此外，我們在上個季度還拿下了北美兩家大型交換和路由服務供應商的路由器銷售機會。所以，坦白說，我認為這只是個開始。

So we're very encouraged by the opportunities that we're seeing there. And I think if you step back from those specific things to Ciena, which is really the new business, and the portfolio, the new innovations in the portfolio we're seeing carriers return to sort of a catch-up on their capacity builds, basically get into more normalized views around the modernization of their network. And I think you're also seeing Rod, a step function increase in overall traffic demand. So it's a blend of all of those things.

因此，我們對目前看到的機會感到非常鼓舞。我認為，如果拋開這些具體因素，回到Ciena（真正的新業務）及其產品組合，以及產品組合中的新創新，我們看到運營商正在逐步彌補容量建設方面的不足，並逐漸形成更加規範的網絡現代化觀念。此外，我認為Rod也指出，整體流量需求出現了階躍式成長。所以，這是所有這些因素共同作用的結果。

I would also mention in terms of the order book, some of that is -- customers wishing to get security of supply in this environment. So it's a blend of all of those dynamics. But I think the secular demand for the industry, I think, is very positive. And I think our own particular position is unique around the wins that we've had in the last few years. Are you beginning to see that flow through.

我還想提一下訂單狀況，部分原因是客戶希望在當前環境下獲得穩定的供應保障。所以，這是各種因素共同作用的結果。但我認為，從長遠來看，整個產業的需求非常樂觀。而且，我認為我們過去幾年取得的成功也使我們擁有獨特的優勢。您是否開始感受到這些優勢帶來的正面影響了？

Okay. Great. And then my follow-up, Gary, was on the software comment you made. You said it was below 10%. I wonder, is it -- by saying that, do you mean it's close to 10%? Or is it quite a bit below? I'm just curious how big that software element is now in the revenue stream.

好的，太好了。 Gary，我的後續問題是關於你之前提到的軟體部分。你說它低於10%。我想問的是──你是說它接近10%嗎？還是遠低於10%？我只是好奇軟體部分目前在公司收入中佔比有多大。

Yes. So that's the sort of 3 elements that I outlined. And I think the last year, it's about 8.5% if you put it all together, and we -- I highlight that because I think we're focused on growing that in absolute dollar terms and over time, as a percentage of our overall revenue, so Blue Planet, MCP and the Adaptive IP.

是的。這就是我概述的三個要素。我認為去年，如果把所有這些加起來，大約是 8.5%，我們——我強調這一點是因為我認為我們專注於在絕對金額上以及隨著時間的推移，在總收入中所佔的百分比上實現增長，包括《藍色星球》、《MCP》和自適應 IP。

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Silverstein with Cowen and Company.

你的下一個問題來自保羅·西爾弗斯坦和考恩公司。

Jim, can I ask you to just repeat the long-term guidance? I was having issue hearing you, my apologies. My question is what gross margin operating margin have been on a normalized basis? How much of an impact are you getting hit from supply chain? And I assume as your routing and switching business grows, that, that's going to have a positive impact on gross margin and operating margin. Anything you can say on that? And what type of growth are you expecting there? And I've got one follow-up to that.

吉姆，請你再重複一次長期業績指引好嗎？我剛才沒聽清，抱歉。我的問題是，你們的毛利率和營業利益率在正常化基礎上分別是多少？供應鏈對你們的影響有多大？我假設隨著你們的路由和轉運業務成長，毛利率和營業利潤率都會受到正面影響。你對此有什麼看法？你們預期這方面的成長幅度如何？我還有一個後續問題。

A lot of questions in you call -- the last one first, which is routing to switching. We do believe router than switching overall will provide accretion to our gross margins as we move through time. And we do expect routing and switching to grow as a percentage of our revenue. With respect to what our profitability might have been. What I'll say is that the last time we gave sort of run rate gross margins was right before COVID. We said that they were centered around 45%. And I still believe that to be true. And that 45% or so, call it, 44% to 46%, represents a run rate percentage of new business in our revenue stack.

您來電中提出了許多問題－先回答最後一個問題，也就是路由到交換的轉換。我們相信，隨著時間的推移，路由業務整體上比交換業務更能提升我們的毛利率。我們也預期路由和交換業務占我們收入的比例將會成長。至於我們之前的獲利能力，我想說的是，我們上次給出毛利率預測是在新冠疫情爆發之前。當時我們說毛利率在45%左右。我仍然認為這個數字是正確的。而這45%左右，或者說44%到46%，代表了我們收入結構中新業務的毛利率佔比。

So that's what I'd say, you can kind of base on our guidance for the year, which is 43% to 46%. You can sort of get somewhere close to what we think the effect of the supply chain challenges will be this coming year. And just I'll just summarize our long-term targets. What we said was we expect the industry will return post '22 to a sort of a low to single -- mid-single digits growth rate, not going to be that different from that in '22, by the way. But our growth rate, we think, will return to the rate that we've seen historically for a long time, which is 6% to 8% range, which will reflect a continued -- taking the market share. We also said that we expect our adjusted EPS will grow in the 10% range over the next several years now. We get some other metrics, but those are the key ones we believe, and you can always check the presentation for you.

所以，我想說的是，您可以參考我們今年的業績指引，也就是43%到46%。這大致可以反映出我們認為供應鏈挑戰在未來一年會造成的影響。我再簡單總結一下我們的長期目標。我們預計，2022年後，整個產業的成長率將回落到個位數或中個位數，與2022年的成長率不會有太大差別。但我們認為，我們自身的成長率將恢復到長期以來的歷史水平，也就是6%到8%的區間，這將反映出我們持續擴大市場份額。我們也預計，未來幾年調整後的每股盈餘將成長10%左右。我們還有其他一些指標，但這些是我們認為最關鍵的指標，您可以隨時查看簡報。

I appreciate that. And my follow-up, it doesn't appear from the numbers, but I'll ask the question. Are you seeing any impact from ZR in particular as well as open line systems. What type of impact are you seeing? Obviously, it's just at the award stage. But any concerns?

我很感激。我的後續問題是，雖然從數據看來似乎沒有，但我還是想問。您是否觀察到 ZR 以及開放式線路系統有任何影響？您觀察到的是哪一種影響？顯然，現在還處於授標階段。但您有什麼擔憂嗎？

Yes. Paul, this is Scott. On the ZR piece, I don't think our perspective has changed since the last time we spoke, we really think it's as the starting of the event is really 2022. So now we're not seeing any impact in the short term on that. And as you may note in the press release, we shipped our ZR+ to the marketplace from a commercial perspective and certainly expect to participate in that market opportunity as it comes to fruition. Open line systems, that's a game that we've been planning for some time, and we've actually benefited from, by the way, some technology leadership, both on the line system side, and on the coherent modem side in whatever consumption models our customers want to choose is a good thing for us. So no negative impact on the line systems.

是的，保羅，我是史考特。關於ZR產品，我認為我們的觀點自上次溝通以來就沒有改變，我們仍然認為該活動真正開始是在2022年。因此，我們目前看不到短期內會受到任何影響。正如您在新聞稿中看到的，我們已經從商業角度將ZR+推向市場，並且肯定會參與這個市場機會。至於開放式線路系統，我們已經規劃了一段時間，而且順便說一句，我們在技術方面也受益匪淺，無論是在線路系統方面還是在相干調製解調器方面，無論我們的客戶選擇何種消費模式，這對我們來說都是一件好事。因此，線路系統不會受到任何負面影響。

Scott, just to be clear, when you say no impact from ZR, we all know they're just starting to ship. You're not seeing meaningful awards by whether web-scale or traditional service providers?

Scott，我再確認一下，你說ZR沒有影響，我們都知道他們才剛開始發布產品。你覺得無論是網路規模的服務提供者還是傳統服務供應商，都沒有看到任何實質的獎項嗎？

No. I think the game on that really starts in 2022.

不，我認為真正的較量要到2022年才開始。

Your next question comes from the line of George Notter with Jefferies LLC.

你的下一個問題來自 Jefferies LLC 的 George Notter。

Congratulations on the terrific results and guidance. I guess I wanted to ask about your market share opportunities. You certainly are implying that you'll take continued share. I think Huawei, obviously, is one of the opportunities out there. What are you seeing in terms of new wins competitively against them? What are you seeing in terms of the opportunity to mine out the installed base? Any additional color you could provide would be great.

恭喜你們取得如此卓越的成績和指導。我想問一下你們的市佔率拓展機會。你們顯然暗示會繼續擴大市場佔有率。我認為華為顯然是潛在的競爭目標之一。你們認為在與華為的競爭中，有哪些新的突破機會？你們認為在挖掘華為現有用戶群方面有哪些機會？如果能提供更多細節，那就太好了。

Yes. George, this is Gary. I mean I would say efforts around that have been ongoing for a while. We've seen this dynamic. And really, it's around 2 regions. It's Europe and India. And what we have seen in both of those regions, even during last year, we've seen an ongoing move to migrate their dependency, these carriers away from Huawei on the optical transport side and in other areas. And we're getting more than our fair share of that. The fact that we saw good growth in Europe and India. Some of that is absolutely directly attributable to that move. And we think that's going to continue over the next 1 to 3 years. And as I said, we're taking more of our fair share of that, George.

是的，喬治，我是加里。我的意思是，圍繞這方面的努力已經持續了一段時間。我們已經看到了這種趨勢。實際上，這主要集中在兩個地區：歐洲和印度。在這兩個地區，即使在去年，我們也看到營運商正在逐步減少對華為在光傳輸和其他領域的依賴。而我們獲得了遠超應得的份額。事實上，我們在歐洲和印度都看到了良好的成長。其中一部分成長完全歸功於這一趨勢。我們認為這種趨勢將在未來1到3年內持續下去。正如我所說，我們正在獲得更多應得的份額，喬治。

The other thing I'd say, George, is that you see market share gains in our revenue numbers. We actually see them quite a bit before that. We see them at the contract awards. We see them in our order book. And all that's been going on in our business over the last couple of years. And particularly, if you look at our backlog at the beginning of this year, it's $2.2 billion. It's hundreds of millions higher than we've ever seen it. Of course, some of that is visibility to future orders, but it reflects the fact that we have been taking market share, and it's going to show up in our revenue this year in '22.

喬治，我還想說的是，我們的營收數據反映了市場佔有率的成長。實際上，我們在此之前就能看到這一點。我們在合約授予方面就能看到，在我們的訂單簿上也能看到。過去幾年，我們一直在穩步推動業務發展。特別是，如果你看看我們今年年初的積壓訂單，高達22億美元，比以往任何時候都高出數億美元。當然，其中一部分是未來訂單的預期，但這反映了我們一直在擴大市場份額，而這些成長最終將在2022年體現在我們的營收中。

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Long with Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的提姆朗。

I was hoping we could talk a little bit about the web-scale business was down a bit sequentially in the quarter. I'm assuming that kind of lumpiness. So if you can just touch on that as well as the $1 billion in orders is good. That's -- for the year, it looks like whatever [1.2] or so book-to-bill, it seems other in the web-scale world are seeing doubling plus of orders, so probably more growth. So is there something going on there where maybe there's a little less forward or ordering than maybe some of the networking folks are seeing and then as a follow-up if you can just touch on Asia, with India up Asia still under a little bit of pressure. Can you talk about what's going on in the other parts of the Asia theater.

我希望我們能稍微聊聊網路規模業務在本季環比略有下滑的情況。我猜想這屬於波動性。所以，如果您能就此稍作說明，以及10億美元的訂單額（這很不錯）——就全年而言，訂單出貨比似乎在1.2左右，而其他網絡規模業務的訂單量似乎翻了一番以上，所以增長可能更大。那麼，是否存在某種情況，例如網路規模業務的訂單量比一些網路公司略少？最後，如果您能談談亞洲市場，尤其是印度市場，目前亞洲其他地區仍面臨一些壓力，您能否談談亞洲其他地區的情況？

Yes. Let me take the web scale first. I would just say in the quarter, just one piece. I think during the year, I think the supply chain stuff weighed a little bit on revenues within to that space, but we certainly maintain share as expected. I would say the fact that we had all 4 web scalers for the first time in our top 10 customers. It's a testament to the position that we have there, and more than $1 billion in orders is a significant milestone from them. And a lot of the -- and that features in our backlog as well. So we have good visibility into the year. And we expect actually web-scale in the guidance that Jim gave for our overall business with the web-scale growth in '22 will probably be above that corporate average, if that's helpful to you.

是的。我先來說說網路規模化業務。就本季而言，我只想說一點。我認為，就全年而言，供應鏈方面的問題對該領域的收入造成了一定的影響，但我們確實保持了預期的市場份額。值得一提的是，我們前十大客戶中首次囊括了全部四家網路規模化服務商。這證明了我們在該領域的地位，而且超過10億美元的訂單也是一個重要的里程碑。此外，我們的積壓訂單中也包含了許多網路規模化服務商。因此，我們對全年的業績有很好的預期。我們預計，在Jim給出的整體業務指引中，網路規模化業務在2022年的成長可能會高於公司平均水平，希望這些資訊對您有所幫助。

And we've got very good visibility into that. In terms of other parts of Asia, India, we expect to -- again, I would make the same comment actually about India. I think that will grow faster than our corporate average as well. Other parts of Asia, a little more challenging to us. I think Australia, New Zealand, I think, will have a very good '22. We've had a couple of new wins there and new customers for us. Japan continues to be challenging, but we additionally have had a couple of new wins there, one of them with the large Tier 1 there.

我們對此有非常清晰的了解。至於亞洲其他地區，例如印度，我們預期──實際上，我對印度的看法也是。我認為印度的成長速度也會高於我們公司的平均水準。亞洲其他地區對我們來說則更具挑戰性。我認為澳洲和紐西蘭在2022年會有非常好的表現。我們在那裡贏得了一些新專案和新客戶。日本市場仍然充滿挑戰，但我們也在那裡贏得了一些新項目，其中一個是與一個大型一級供應商合作。

So I think over time, our position in Japan over the next probably 18 months or so will improve. Obviously, we're not focused on China. The rest of Asia, I think, has been a bit of a challenge. And I think that the pandemic continues to weigh on a lot of those countries.

所以我認為，未來大約18個月內，我們在日本的地位會逐漸改善。顯然，我們並沒有把重點放在中國。我認為，亞洲其他地區一直都比較棘手。而且，我認為疫情仍在持續影響許多亞洲國家。

It's also -- it's also a Huawei sort of home [dirt], and they're not under as much pressure there as they are in Europe, for example and India. So that's part of...

而且，印度對華為來說也算是“主場”，他們在那裡面臨的壓力遠沒有在歐洲和印度那麼大。所以，這也是部分原因…

Your next question comes from the line of Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

你的下一個問題源自於西蒙·利奧波德和雷蒙·詹姆斯的著作。

Two as well. First, I want to understand what you -- actions you may be taking in terms of the prices to your customers, whether you're planning on or have made adjustments? And if so, how successful have you been in getting any price increases to stick to pass on the higher input costs? And then I've got a follow-up, please.

還有兩個問題。首先，我想了解您在價格方面可能採取的措施，例如您是否計劃或已經調整了價格？如果是，您在將上漲的成本轉嫁給客戶方面，價格上漲是否能夠持續？另外，我還有一個後續問題。

Yes, Simon, I think our perspective is really driven by a lot of that stuff we just absorbed in the normal bumps and moves of supply chain in the ecosystem. But I think with elements to this, which everybody is seeing the cost environment, we do not think is transitory. It's split it into 2 elements. There's all the expedite fees and logistics and the rest of it eventually, that will be a rate. But some of these costs from a chip point of view, we do not see that being transitory.

是的，西蒙，我認為我們的觀點很大程度上受到了供應鏈生態系統中正常波動的影響。但我認為，考慮到成本環境等因素，我們認為這並非暫時的。成本環境可以分為兩部分：一是加急費、物流費以及其他最終會形成固定費率的費用。但從晶片的角度來看，我們認為其中一些成本不會是暫時的。

We are actively -- I would say we're actively engaged with our customers on how best to navigate this from a partnership point of view and how do we do that in a n equitable way. We don't expect any of those dialogues to really impact FY '22, largely because we've got such a large backlog already, but we are engaged with our customers on that.

我們正在積極與客戶溝通，探討如何從合作的角度更好地應對這種情況，以及如何以公平的方式進行溝通。我們預期這些對話不會對2022財年產生實質影響，主要是因為我們目前積壓的訂單量很大，但我們仍在就此與客戶保持溝通。

And then as a follow-up to...

然後，作為後續…

Just to be clear on that Simon about the, If we are able to share these costs that won't affect the current backlog that will affect orders going forward just to make that point.

西蒙，我得澄清一下，如果我們能夠分攤這些成本，就不會影響目前的積壓訂單，但會影響未來的訂單，我只是想說明這一點。

On the follow-up, Gary mentioned web scale growing faster. India -- but you didn't mention the cable TV vertical, which in the fourth quarter was really strong, and we've been observing some spending shifts in that vertical. How are you thinking about your cable TV market in your 2022 guidance?

在後續問題中，Gary提到了網路規模成長速度加快。印度—但您沒有提到有線電視行業，該行業在第四季度表現非常強勁，我們觀察到該行業的支出出現了一些變化。您在2022年的業績展望中如何看待有線電視市場？

We're going to have a good year with the MSOs, but we had a very, very strong year, particularly with our biggest customer there, which is Comcast. And there we had a good deal with them. We're just not going to see the kind of growth rate in that vertical so we're going to see across our business in '22.

我們與MSO（多系統營運商）的合作將會不錯，但我們去年的業績非常強勁，尤其是與我們最大的客戶康卡斯特（Comcast）的合作。我們與他們達成了一項不錯的協議。只是我們預計在2022年，該垂直領域的成長率不會像我們整個業務那麼高。

What I would add to that, though, I do think from a specific -- from a Blue Planet point of view, we've had 2 additional MSO wins for the Blue Planet that will begin to roll out into the year. So we've got a pretty good footprint now from Blue Planet, mainly on the inventory side across a number of those large cable companies.

不過，我想補充一點，就Blue Planet而言，我們又新增了兩家MSO（多系統運營商）合作夥伴，他們的服務將在今年陸續推出。因此，Blue Planet目前已經擁有相當不錯的市場覆蓋率，尤其是在多家大型有線電視公司的節目庫方面。

Your next question comes from the line of Jim Suva with Citi Group.

你的下一個問題來自花旗集團的吉姆·蘇瓦。

My question is regarding some of the countries like India and Australia, it seems like during COVID that they are coming back a little bit later than other parts of the world, just given the timing of when COVID hit those societies. Is it fair to say that your growth outlook on those is not only higher than corporate average, but also kind of multiyear sustainable as I believe some of those countries kind of put spending in infrastructure on pause during COVID a lot more than others. If you can just kind of talk a little bit about that.

我的問題是關於印度和澳洲等一些國家，在新冠疫情期間，它們的復甦似乎比世界其他地區稍晚一些，這主要是因為疫情衝擊這些國家的時間不同。您認為這些國家的成長前景不僅高於企業平均水平，而且具有多年可持續性，這是否合理？因為我相信，在疫情期間，這些國家在基礎建設方面的支出比其他國家少得多。您能否就此談談您的看法？

Yes. Jim, I think it doesn't ebb and flow depending on some -- particularly India. India has gone through a number of challenges, some of which pre-COVID were industry-based I do believe that they've dug out from that.

是的，吉姆，我認為經濟的漲跌並非取決於某些國家——尤其是印度。印度經歷了許多挑戰，其中一些在新冠疫情之前就與產業有關，但我相信他們已經克服了這些困難。

Obviously, they had this sort of the wave of COVID, which really dampened down demand. But we're seeing a very strong set of dynamics in India. And obviously, we have #1 market share in India. And I think if I look at it from an RFP, and an order point of view, we've actually grown share in India in the last 18 months, even during that period. And I think we've said this before that whilst deployments may have been very patchy in some of these territories in different countries. The RFP activity that's largely gone on a (inaudible), which is why we've got new wins in addition to the stuff that we had prior to the COVID piece.

顯然，他們經歷了新冠疫情的衝擊，這確實抑制了需求。但我們在印度看到了非常強勁的成長勢頭。而且，我們在印度的市佔率排名第一。我認為，如果從招標和訂單的角度來看，在過去18個月裡，我們在印度的市佔率實際上有所成長，即使在疫情期間也是如此。我們之前也說過，雖然在某些國家/地區的部署可能非常零散，但招標活動基本上都在進行中，這就是為什麼除了疫情前已有的業務之外，我們還能獲得新的訂單。

So I think we feel very positive about some of these territories. And I would agree, I think this is a multiyear dynamic. Obviously, everybody is supply constrained right now. But if I look over for the next 1 to 3 years, I feel very bullish about Australia, New Zealand, India, and longer term, I think our position our position in Japan as well, but that's going to take a little more rebuilding.

所以我覺得我們對其中一些地區非常看好。我也同意，我認為這將是一個持續多年的過程。顯然，目前所有市場都面臨供應限制。但如果展望未來1到3年，我對澳洲、紐西蘭和印度市場非常看好，從長遠來看，我對我們在日本市場的地位也很看好，但這需要一些時間來重建。

Your next question comes from the line of Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

你的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

Congrats on the good printed guide. I've two questions as well. First one, maybe when I think of this 11% to 13% guide -- revenue guide for fiscal '22, I think you talked about web-scale, Asia doing better. I was wondering if you could just touch on what are you seeing in North America and Europe for a deal basis, in the context of the guide for fiscal '22?

恭喜你們出版了這麼棒的印刷版指南。我還有兩個問題。第一個問題，關於你們提到的2022財年營收成長11%到13%的目標，我記得你們提到過網路規模化，以及亞洲市場表現更佳。我想請問一下，在2022財年營收成長目標的背景下，你們對北美和歐洲市場的具體情況有什麼看法？

I would say that Europe I think will also be probably above our average corporate average. So then you get to the question, what did not above that corporate average? I guess you end up to that point. And that would be North America. And it's mainly -- the [lot] of big numbers, and also we've got such a large market share in North America across the board. But we do expect growth in North America. Let me be very clear about that.

我認為歐洲的業績可能也會高於我們企業的平均水準。那麼問題來了，哪些地區的業績沒有高於企業平均呢？我想最終會發現是北美。這主要是因為北美地區的業績數據非常龐大，而且我們在北美各個領域都佔據了很大的市場份額。但我們確實預期北美市場會持續成長。這一點我必須明確說明。

But I think the dynamics in Europe -- and I'd say there's 2 dynamics in Europe. One is they basically they are underfunded their infrastructure for a period of time now. This is way prior to COVID, and then in COVID obviously, it's affected like everybody else. But -- so I think in Europe and then you've got the Huawei dynamic there as well, which you don't really have in North America. There's not much deployed than what is being taken out. So I think we do expect a good year in North America for sure, and I look at the number of wins that we've had that will help drive that. But I think Europe will have another strong year in '22.

但我認為歐洲的動態——我認為歐洲有兩種動態——是這樣的：一是他們的基礎設施長期以來資金不足。這遠在新冠疫情之前，而新冠疫情顯然也像其他地區一樣對他們造成了影響。所以，我認為歐洲的情況有所不同，此外還有華為的影響，這在北美並不常見。北美部署的設備很少，幾乎都被撤走了。所以我認為我們肯定會期待北美市場在2022年取得不錯的成績，而我們已經贏得的許多項目也將有助於推動這一成長。但我認為歐洲在2022年也將迎來強勁的一年。

Perfect. And then let me just follow up. I think when you talked about the long-term guide, you kind of said we expect the industry to grow low single digits. And I think that's the same assumption you have for fiscal '22 if I'm not mistaken. It's clearly the implication that your share gains are much more outsized in fiscal '22 versus what you think happens beyond that. Is that fair, I guess my question is why do you think this outsized share gains that you have this year are a onetime phenomena versus perhaps something that's more enduring and durable, i.e., double digit...

好的。那我再補充一點。我記得您之前談到長期指引時說過，我們預期整個產業的成長率會是低個位數。如果我沒記錯的話，您對2022財年的預期也是一樣。這顯然意味著，您認為2022財年的市佔率成長幅度遠超您預期之後的成長幅度。我的理解對嗎？我想問的是，您為什麼認為今年如此巨大的市佔率成長只是曇花一現，而不是更持久、更穩定的成長，例如兩位數的成長？

I would -- let me describe it as this. I think you've got a bit of a catch-up. We've had a bit of a backlog of wins that have not deployed or monetized. And I think that's now beginning to turn into revenue, albeit slower than everybody anticipated because of the supply chain. But I think it is a bit of a catch-up here, and I think it is somewhat unique to Ciena. Because I think the market rate overall is probably going to be in the single -- low to single digits for '22. And I expect that to -- and it's further out, you get more difficult to tell. But if you look over the sort of '23, '24, I would expect it to be similar. And I would expect us to continue to take share, which is why you get into that sort of 6% to 8% on that. If you look at it over the last sort of decade, that kind of number is -- that kind of dynamic and structure is what we've seen play out, and I don't expect that to be any different. And we're also -- potentially, as we've said, opening up our TAM in the switching and routing, which I think will be helpful to reinforce our outside growth.

我會這樣描述：我認為你們現在有點落後了。我們之前已經積壓了一些項目，但這些項目還沒有部署或獲利。我認為現在這些項目開始轉化為收入了，儘管由於供應鏈的原因，速度比大家預期的要慢。但我認為這確實是一個追趕的過程，而且我認為這在某種程度上是Ciena特有的。因為我認為2022年整體市場成長率可能只有個位數，甚至更低。我預計——時間越長，就越難預測。但如果你展望2023年和2024年，我預期情況會類似。我預計我們將繼續擴大市場份額，這就是為什麼你們會預測市場份額在6%到8%之間。回顧過去十年，我們看到的正是這種規模──這種動態和結構，我預期未來也不會例外。此外，正如我們之前所說，我們可能還會擴大在交換和路由領域的市場規模，我認為這將有助於我們鞏固外部成長。

Your next question comes from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

I guess I wanted to start with Jim, I know you mentioned some headwinds to cash conversion, I think, next year, if I heard you right. But as you return to a more normal level of growth post fiscal '22, I think you'll be generating about $400 million, $500 million of cash. Why shouldn't -- I mean given the needs for deployment of cash that you have, I don't see any major M&A requirements that you had done unless you're thinking of any -- why shouldn't we be thinking that the share repurchases can be or the cash shareholder returns can be as much as 100% of free cash flow with the strong balance sheet that you highlighted? And I have a follow-up, please.

我想先問問吉姆，我知道你提到明年現金轉換會有一些阻力，如果我沒聽錯的話。但是，隨著2022財年後成長恢復正常水平，我認為你們將產生大約4億到5億美元的現金。考慮到你們的現金部署需求，除非你們正在考慮，否則我沒看到你們有任何重大併購計劃——鑑於你們強勁的資產負債表，為什麼我們不能考慮將股票回購或現金股東回報的金額提高到自由現金流的100%呢？我還有一個後續問題。

Yes. What I'd first say is that we would like to consider good M&A transactions. I mean we -- you can't see it because it's in our (inaudible) but we've been very active in thinking about things. We just have not been able to find something that work for us. We hope to be able to do that.

是的。首先我想說的是，我們有意進行一些合適的併購交易。我的意思是，我們——您可能看不到，因為它在我們（聽不清楚）內部，但我們一直在積極思考各種可能性。只是我們還沒找到適合的交易。我們希望以後能找到。

So that's why we're going to keep a very good and solid cash balance and a strong balance sheet. But I would say this that you're right. We're going to be generating a lot of cash over the next several years. And if we can't deploy that either in the business or in M&A, then you could probably expect to see more share repurchases.

所以，這就是為什麼我們要維持非常穩健的現金儲備和強勁的資產負債表。但我同意你的觀點。未來幾年，我們將產生大量現金流。如果我們無法將這些資金用於業務發展或併購，那麼您可能會看到我們進行更多股票回購。

Got it. And for my follow-up, just going back again to the long-term guide beyond FY '22, the 6% to 8%, that's a rough largely similar to what you had pre-pandemic for your long-term guide as well. But if you can share any thoughts about how similar or dissimilar is that in composition to how you thought about it pre-pandemic. Is there more growth coming out of telcos? Or is there maybe less share gain in certain verticals, just how to think about how similar or dissimilar is to pre-pandemic levels?

明白了。關於我的後續問題，再次回到2022財年以後的長期成長預期，6%到8%的成長率，這和您疫情前的長期預期大致相同。但您能否分享一下，目前的預期與您疫情前的預期在構成上有哪些相似或不同之處？電信業是否會有更大的成長？或者某些垂直領域的市佔率成長是否會放緩？我只是想了解一下，目前的預期與疫情前的水平相比有哪些相似或不同之處。

I would say, broadly, from a trending point of view, I would say international growth that would be -- so pretty much as we talked about in '22. I would expect that to continue, largely a function we've got such a large market share in North America. We will grow, but it's more difficult to do that than big numbers. I also think that web-scale will be a fantastic opportunity for us over the medium to longer term, and the time we're talking about that. So I would expect a lot of that growth to be from international and from web-scale and further diversification of the customer base.

總的來說，從趨勢來看，我認為國際成長——基本上和我們2022年討論的差不多——將會持續下去，這主要得益於我們在北美市場佔據的巨大份額。我們會繼續成長，但這比追求數字上的突破要難得多。我還認為，從中長期來看，網路規模化對我們來說將是一個絕佳的機會，而我們現在討論的正是這個時期。所以我預計，大部分成長將來自國際市場、網路規模化以及客戶群的進一步多元化。

Also rather than switching. That's a great opportunity for us. We've said that our TAM had increased from around $13 billion to $22 billion because of this convergence of optical and IP technology and our routing and switching investments and engagements are going to increase our revenue over the next several years at a very [high rate].

而且，與其說是切換，不如說是為我們帶來了巨大的機會。我們曾說過，由於光纖和IP技術的融合，我們的潛在市場規模已從約130億美元增長到220億美元，而我們在路由和交換領域的投資和合作將在未來幾年內以非常高的速度增長我們的收入。

Your next question comes from the line Alex Henderson with Needham.

你的下一個問題來自 Alex Henderson 與 Needham 的對話。

Could you just repeat the order backlog that you have? And is that primarily a product backlog?

能否再列一下你們的訂單積壓清單？這主要是產品積壓嗎？

It's $2.2 billion. It is products and services. Some very small portion of that -- small and low hundreds of millions is services and maintenance that will continue beyond fiscal '22. So the vast bulk of that backlog will be delivered in fiscal '22.

這筆金額為22億美元，包括產品和服務。其中只有極小一部分——數億美元——是服務和維護，這些服務和維護將持續到2022財年以後。因此，絕大部分積壓訂單將在2022財年交付。

What do you think your normalized backlog would be? If you were in a normal environment, how much of that is outsized backlog?

你認為正常情況下你的待辦事項數量會是多少？如果處於正常環境下，其中有多少是超負荷的待辦事項？

Yes. Scott will address this. But we talked about that internally. The business is really the -- because of the COVID situation, and what quickly followed, which was a supply chain imbalance. The way the ordering pattern of our customers that would occur, has changed. And Scott, do you want to address that as we've talked about it.

是的，斯科特會談到這個問題。不過我們內部也討論過。由於新冠疫情以及隨之而來的供應鏈失衡，業務確實受到了影響。客戶的訂購模式也改變了。史考特，你願意談談我們之前討論過的這個問題嗎？

And I think, Alex, if you look at a couple of data points. Number one is the backlog grew from beginning of '21 to the end '21 by $1 billion. The environment going into '21, I wouldn't say it was normal either. So that might have been a bit low, and going into '22 is probably a bit high.

我認為，Alex，如果你看一下幾個數據點。第一，積壓訂單從2021年初到年底增加了10億美元。 2021年初的經濟環境也不正常。所以2021年初的積壓訂單可能偏低，而2022年初的積壓訂單可能偏高。

So somewhere in between there is the normalized rate. If you go back in historical numbers through pretty much last decade, we sort of entered the year typically somewhere between 30% and 35% of the annual revenue plan for the year in backlog. So that may give you some indication of what sort of normal state is. I personally think we'll be living in this new environment where we have longer visibility, and therefore, more backlog for quite a while, probably through all of investment of '22.

所以，介於兩者之間的就是正常水準。回顧過去十年來的歷史數據，我們通常在年初時積壓訂單量會達到年度營收計畫的30%到35%。這或許能讓你對正常狀態有所了解。我個人認為，我們將長期處於這種新的環境中，因此積壓訂單量也會更多，這種情況可能會持續相當長一段時間，甚至可能貫穿整個2022年的投資週期。

Yes. So the primary reason I'm asking these questions is I wanted to get at the mechanics of how the backlog normalizes. So over the course of CY '22 -- FY '22, will we see book-to-bill start to run below 1 and therefore, the backlog start to trend lower? Or do you expect in your guidance that the backlog stays at elevated levels, and we don't bring that down. I mean if I'm looking at the backlog, it's 61% of your total trailing revenues and 75% of product revenue, so it's a very large backlog. What is the mechanics for normalizing that? And does it happen all in '22, or do we actually end up with a large chunk of that backlog being realized in 2023, which case the guide seems conservative for '23.

是的。我問這些問題的主要原因是想了解積壓訂單是如何正常化的。在2022財年（CY '22）期間，訂單出貨比是否會開始低於1，從而使積壓訂單開始下降？或者，你們的業績指引預計積壓訂單將維持在高位，不會減少？我的意思是，如果我看一下積壓訂單，它佔你們過去12個月總收入的61%，佔產品收入的75%，所以積壓訂單非常龐大。那麼，如何才能使其正常化呢？所有積壓訂單都會在2022年完成嗎？還是說，我們最終會在2023年完成大部分積壓訂單？如果是後者，那麼你們對2023年的業績指引似乎過於保守了。

I actually think the -- one of the things that we probably need to change your mind around a little bit is sort of looking at a shorter term period in bit try and figure out how much revenue moves from one to the other. Because in the old world, we used to go to a period and a relatively low proportion of that period's revenue was actually in backlog, and that we had pretty fast conversion cycle.

實際上，我認為我們可能需要稍微改變一下你的想法，那就是從更短的時間段來看，試著弄清楚有多少收入從一個時期轉移到另一個時期。因為在過去，我們通常會觀察一個時期，而該時期內積壓訂單的收入比例相對較低，而且我們的轉換週期也相當快。

So it made sense to ask the question of how much should you miss. Right now, we're in a different world. The demand profile has given us long visibility. It's a very significant portion of the delivered revenue in a short period of time, and therefore, you're less dependent on new order flow.

因此，提出「應該錯過多少」這個問題就很有意義了。如今，我們身處在一個截然不同的世界。需求曲線讓我們能夠長期洞察市場走向。短期內，這部分收入佔總收入的很大比例，因此，你對新訂單的依賴程度降低了。

I think we're going to be living in that world through most if not all of the '22. So what it does mean is, unlike in '21, where we said the demand dynamic was really what was shaping the timing of our revenue being back-end loaded, it's going to be not the demand in this case. It's going to be a similar shape to '21, but it's going to be the supply environment that's going to be the thing that's shaping.

我認為，即使不是整個2022年，我們大部分時間都將生活在這樣的環境中。這意味著，與2021年不同，當時我們指出需求動態才是決定我們收入後置放時間的主要因素，而這一次，需求將不再是主要因素。雖然情況會與2021年類似，但真正起決定性作用的將是供應環境。

And so you could naturally expect then the revenue increasing as we go through the year, there's going to be a convergence to the -- on the book-to-bill ratio, the question you asked, whether it slips to being less than 1, we don't know. But I think you'll still see an oversight backlog relative to historical measures going into '23.

因此，隨著時間的推移，收入自然會增長，訂單出貨比也會趨於穩定——至於你提到的問題，即它是否會跌破1，我們目前還無法確定。但我認為，到2023年，與歷史數據相比，監管積壓問題仍然會存在。

So are you assuming a reduction in the book-to-bill because of the parts -- elements becoming more available over the course of the year? And when do you expect that to actually start to improve in the guide. That's what I'm really trying to get at.

所以你是認為隨著零件供應在一年中逐漸增多，訂單出貨比會下降嗎？你預計這種情況何時會在銷售指南中真正開始改善？這正是我想要了解的。

I would say at this that I don't think it's good to probably give you a precision in terms of the quarters but I would say -- we do expect our book-to-bill in the year to be still greater than 1 on an annual basis. And we do expect the supply chain environment to largely persist through most of our fiscal '22. We think we will start to see some improvements in lead times as we get to the back end of the year. So that will probably change the ratios on the backlog to revenue in '23, but not back to sort of the historical norms.

我認為現在給出季度層面的精確數據可能不太合適，但我可以肯定的是——我們預計本年度的訂單出貨比仍將大於1。我們也預期供應鏈環境將在2022財年的大部分時間維持現狀。我們認為，隨著財年接近尾聲，交貨週期會開始改善。因此，這可能會改變2023年積壓訂單與收入的比率，但不會恢復到歷史正常水準。

Your next question is on the line of Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題與 Meta Marshall 和摩根士丹利有關。

A couple of questions for me. Maybe just a little bit more market-focused. Clearly, you're seeing a strong web-scale order flow. And just what are you seeing in terms of that upgrade activity? Is it wholesale upgrades to WaveLogic 5, like we maybe saw with the 400-gig cycle, are you seeing more of a mix of speed being installed kind of in the data center?

我有幾個問題想問一下。可能更側重於市場方面。顯然，你們看到了強勁的網路規模訂單流。那麼，在升級活動方面，你們觀察到了什麼？是像我們之前看到的400G週期一樣，整體升級到WaveLogic 5嗎？還是資料中心裡正在安裝各種速度的伺服器？

And then maybe a little less of a question for fiscal '22, but you talked about there needing to be kind of a partnership with the service providers as you look towards making price increases. Just trying to get a sense of when you look at low to mid-single digits in '23 and beyond kind of for the industry.

那麼，對於2022財年來說，這可能就不是什麼大問題了，但您提到在考慮提價時，需要與服務提供者建立某種合作關係。我只是想了解一下，您預計2023年及以後整個產業的漲幅會在個位數低到中等程度嗎？

Do you think that will be more pricing-driven or unit-driven, just in terms of how much of the price increases will be absorbed versus -- absorbed by the suppliers versus the service providers?

你認為價格上漲的幅度會更由價格驅動還是由銷售驅動？也就是說，價格上漲的幅度究竟會由供應商負擔多少，還是由服務提供者承擔多少？

I'll turn the first one, on the web-scale piece. So as you know, we've got exposure to the web-scale and multiple sort of parts of their infrastructure, there are campus metro data center interconnect. In some cases, there are sort of natural backbone networks, but certainly, a lot of activity around the submarine networks. I think in all 3 of those use cases, what we're seeing is certain capacity augments. And those capacity augments hit us. And typically the most advanced state of the shelf technology as they try to introduce the lowest cost per bit as aggressive as they can, but not all on WaveLogic 5, but that transition is happening as we speak.

我先來說說網路規模的部分。如您所知，我們已經接觸到了網路規模及其基礎設施的多個方面，包括園區城域資料中心互連。在某些情況下，存在一些天然的骨幹網絡，但海底光纜網絡無疑是最活躍的領域。我認為在這三種應用場景中，我們都看到了容量的提升。這些容量的提升對我們產生了影響。通常情況下，為了盡可能降低每位元成本，他們會採用最先進的現成技術，但並非所有技術都基於 WaveLogic 5，不過這種轉變正在發生。

The second thing that we are seeing is expansions in terms of their reach. So that comes at us in terms of new revenue builds, both in terms of photonics and WaveLogic modems. And then maybe a bit unique to us and the timing lines as we had talked in the past around new logo wins and that space over significant, and you're starting to see those come to revenue.

我們看到的第二點是業務範圍的擴大。這體現在新增收入上，包括光子學和WaveLogic數據機兩方面。此外，正如我們之前提到的，新客戶的加入以及這一領域的顯著增長，可能對我們而言有些獨特，而且這些增長也開始轉化為實際收入。

And Meta, on the other part of your question on the industry growth -- whatever happens on the pricing environment. I don't think that will have a major impact on the actual size of the growth, to be honest, because I think wherever the pricing dynamics end up, I think, certainly from our point of view is that we will absorb the vast majority of the additional costs associated with the component piece.

關於您提出的行業成長問題——無論價格環境如何變化，Meta，坦白說，我認為這不會對實際成長規模產生重大影響，因為無論價格最終走向如何，至少從我們的角度來看，我們將承擔組件相關額外成本的絕大部分。

I just want to be clear, I do not think that will be able to be passed on to our customers. And that's all encompassed in our guide. And I don't think it will really impact '22 from a price increase point of view. But what I would say is over time, as Jim alluded to our gross margin, if you look at the guidance we've given for the sort of 3-year piece. I do think that we will be able through innovation, our own cost reductions, our vertical integration and mix and also our increased levels of software exposure to the growth in routing and switching that will help our gross margin. And as Jim said, it's probably -- if you look at the -- the baseline gross margin was somewhere between 44% and 46% right now, if you didn't take into account these components increases.

我想澄清一點，我認為這些成本無法轉嫁給我們的客戶。這一點在我們的指導方針中都有說明。而且我認為從價格上漲的角度來看，這不會對2022年產生太大影響。但我想說的是，隨著時間的推移，正如Jim提到的我們的毛利率，如果你看一下我們給出的三年期業績指引，我認為透過創新、我們自身的成本削減、垂直整合和產品組合優化，以及我們在路由和交換領域軟體業務增長方面取得的進展，我們能夠提高毛利率。正如Jim所說，如果不考慮這些組件成本的成長，目前的基準毛利率可能在44%到46%之間。

Thank you very much, and thanks, everyone, for your time today, your attention. We look forward to catching up with everybody today in the next few days. Happy holidays, everyone, and happy healthy New Year. Thank you.

非常感謝，也感謝各位今天抽空關注。我們期待在接下來的幾天與大家再次相聚。祝大家節日快樂，新年健康快樂！謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以斷開連線了。