Ciena Corp (CIEN) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Rob, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Ciena Fiscal Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call.

早安.我是羅伯，今天將擔任本次電話會議的接線生。現在，我謹代表Ciena公司歡迎各位參加2022財年第二季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Gregg Lampf, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

投資者關係副總裁格雷格·蘭普夫，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, Rob. Good morning, and welcome to Ciena's 2022 Fiscal Second Quarter Results Conference Call. On the call today is Gary Smith, President and CEO; and Jim Moylan, CFO. Scott McFeely, our Senior Vice President of Global Products and Services, is also with us for Q&A.

謝謝羅伯。早安，歡迎參加Ciena 2022財年第二季業績電話會議。今天出席會議的有總裁兼執行長Gary Smith和財務長Jim Moylan。全球產品與服務資深副總裁Scott McFeely也將參與問答環節。

In addition to this call and the press release, we have posted to the Investors section of our website an accompanying investor presentation that reflects this discussion as well as certain highlighted items from the quarter.

除了本次電話會議和新聞稿之外，我們還在網站的投資者關係部分發布了一份配套的投資者演示文稿，其中反映了本次討論以及本季度的一些重點項目。

Our comments today speak to our recent Q2 performance, our view on the current demand environment and supply chain conditions as well as discussion of our financial outlook.

我們今天的演講將涉及我們最近的第二季業績、我們對當前需求環境和供應鏈狀況的看法，以及我們對財務前景的探討。

Today's discussion includes certain adjusted or non-GAAP measures of Ciena's results of operations. A detailed reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results is included in today's press release. Before turning the call over to Gary, I'll remind you that during this call, we'll be making certain forward-looking statements.

今天的討論涉及Ciena公司經營績效的某些調整後指標或非GAAP指標。這些非GAAP指標與GAAP績效的詳細調節表已包含在今天的新聞稿中。在將電話會議交給Gary之前，我想提醒各位，在本次電話會議中，我們將做出一些前瞻性陳述。

Such statements, including our quarterly and annual guidance, discussion on market opportunities and commentary about the impact of COVID-19 and supply chain constraints on our business and results, are based on current expectations, forecasts and assumptions regarding the company and its markets, which include risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from statements discussed today.

此類聲明，包括我們的季度和年度指引、對市場機會的討論以及對 COVID-19 和供應鏈限制對我們業務和業績的影響的評論，均基於公司及其市場的當前預期、預測和假設，其中包含可能導致實際結果與今天討論的聲明存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。

These statements should be viewed in the context of the risk factors detailed in our most recent 10-K filing and our upcoming 10-Q filing, which is required to be filed with the SEC by June 8, and we expect to file by that date.

這些聲明應結合我們最新的 10-K 文件和即將提交的 10-Q 文件中詳述的風險因素來理解。 10-Q 文件必須在 6 月 8 日之前提交給美國證券交易委員會，我們預計將在該日期之前提交。

Ciena assumes no obligation to update the information discussed in this conference call, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. As always, we will allow for as much Q&A as possible today. So we do ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up please. With that, I'll turn it over to Gary.

Ciena不承擔更新本次電話會議中所討論資訊的義務，無論是因為出現新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。今天，我們將一如既往地安排盡可能多的問答環節。因此，請您盡量將問題限制在一個問題和一個後續問題內。接下來，我將把發言權交給Gary。

Thanks, Gregg, and good morning, everyone. This morning, we reported, largely in line, financial results. When considering, it was really a strong achievement against the backdrop of an increasingly challenging supply environment.

謝謝格雷格，大家早安。今天早上，我們公佈了財務業績，基本上符合預期。考慮到日益嚴峻的供應鏈環境，這確實是一項非常出色的成績。

This included revenue of $949 million, reflecting year-over-year growth of 14% as we continue to take share and grow faster than the overall market. Building off a historic first quarter order flows, our order flow in the second quarter remained very strong, with a book-to-bill ratio well in excess of [1.5].

這其中包括9.49億美元的營收，年增14%，我們持續擴大市場份額，成長速度也高於整體市場。在第一季創紀錄的訂單量基礎上，我們第二季的訂單量依然強勁，訂單出貨比遠超過1.5。

As a result, we continue to grow our backlog. In fact, with continued strength in orders in recent periods, we have seen significant expansion in our backlog since the end of fiscal 2021 from about $2.2 billion to more than $4 billion, exiting Q2.

因此，我們的積壓訂單持續成長。事實上，由於近期訂單持續強勁，自2021財年末以來，我們的積壓訂單已顯著增長，從約22億美元增至第二季末的40多億美元。

We are clearly seeing a number of positive demand trends at a secular level that we believe are very durable over the long term. And with our leading innovation, scale, customer relationships and investment capacity, we will continue to capture market share.

我們清楚地看到，從長期來看，市場需求呈現許多正面趨勢，我們相信這些趨勢將會持續下去。憑藉我們領先的創新能力、規模優勢、客戶關係和投資實力，我們將繼續擴大市場份額。

Ironically, this significant growth in demand for our technology has exacerbated the impact of ongoing global supply chain challenges on our business. And in fact, Q2 really presented the most volatile set of supply chain conditions to date, which, in fact, worsened as we moved through the quarter.

諷刺的是，對我們技術需求的顯著成長反而加劇了持續的全球供應鏈挑戰對我們業務的影響。事實上，第二季的供應鏈狀況是迄今為止最動盪的，而且隨著時間的推移，情況還在惡化。

To put it simply, demand continues to significantly exceed supply, and availability of supply is the most impactful factor in our performance and rate of revenue growth at this time. Within this context, we continue to execute well in Q2 and navigate these challenges through supply chain mitigation strategies.

簡而言之，需求持續遠超供應，供應的可用性是目前影響我們績效和營收成長率的最重要因素。在此背景下，我們第二季度繼續保持良好運營，並透過供應鏈應對策略克服這些挑戰。

As a result, we delivered more product in Q2 than we did in the same quarter last year, including some notable highlights that illustrate our innovation leadership and the diversified business that we've built.

因此，我們在第二季度交付的產品比去年同期更多，其中包括一些值得注意的亮點，這些亮點體現了我們在創新方面的領先地位以及我們所建立的多元化業務。

To start with, non-telco revenue in Q2 was approximately 44% or up 15% year-over-year. This included direct web-scale revenue of 22%, an increase of 7% year-over-year, primarily for our Waveserver platform.

首先，第二季非電信業務營收約 44%，年增 15%。其中包括直接網路規模營收 22%，年增 7%，主要來自我們的 Waveserver 平台。

Our top 10 customers in the quarter included 4 web-scalers, and we made our first product shipments to a new large web-scale customer in the U.S. We now have the top 6 global web-scale companies as customers of WaveLogic 5 Extreme in different stages and maturity of deployment.

本季我們的前 10 位客戶中有 4 家網路規模化企業，並且我們向美國一家新的大型網路規模化客戶交付了第一批產品。目前，全球排名前 6 的網路規模化企業已成為 WaveLogic 5 Extreme 的客戶，處於不同的部署階段和成熟度。

Overall, in the quarter, we added 16 new customers for WaveLogic 5 E, bringing our total to 172. Q2 was a record quarter for shipments of WaveLogic 5 E, up 50% year-over-year and more than double that of last quarter. To date, we've shipped more than 35,000 WaveLogic 5 E modems to customers globally.

本季，我們新增了16家WaveLogic 5 E客戶，客戶總數達到172家。第二季WaveLogic 5 E的出貨量創下歷史新高，年增50%，比上一季成長超過一倍。迄今為止，我們已向全球客戶交付了超過35,000台WaveLogic 5 E數據機。

In Routing and Switching, our business is growing, driven by Tier 1 service providers as well as Tier 2, 3 customers for our expanded routing and PON capabilities. Quarterly revenue there was up 27% sequentially and more than 70% year-over-year, including a strong contribution from the recently added Vyatta platform.

在路由和交換業務方面，我們的業務正在成長，這主要得益於一級服務供應商以及二、三級客戶對我​​們擴展後的路由和PON功能的需求。該業務季度營收季增27%，年增超過70%，其中近期新增的Vyatta平台貢獻顯著。

And finally, Platform Software and Services revenue was up 22% from this time last year. Looking at the overall demand environment. The shift in business and consumer behavior have accelerated positive trends for our business, including cloud adoption, a greater focus on the network edge, which is really greater capacity closer to the customer, and the need, of course, for increased automation.

最後，平台軟體和服務收入較去年同期成長了22%。從整體需求環境來看，企業和消費者行為的轉變加速了我們業務的積極趨勢，包括雲端採用率的提高、對網路邊緣（即更靠近客戶的強大容量）的日益重視，以及對更高自動化水平的需求。

These are strong and durable long-term secular drivers for the industry, creating an incredible demand environment for our business, going forward.

這些都是推動產業發展的強勁而持久的長期趨勢因素，為我們的業務未來創造了巨大的需求環境。

In Optical, specifically, we are experiencing significant growth in our large installed base of customers around the globe, fueled by exploding bandwidth requirements.

具體來說，在光纖領域，由於頻寬需求的爆炸性成長，我們全球龐大的客戶群正在經歷顯著成長。

Adding to this positive dynamic is continued incremental opportunity to displace Huawei in many countries, particularly in Europe, as well as increasing public investments in network infrastructure.

此外，在許多國家，尤其是在歐洲，華為的替代機會還在不斷增加，同時，公共部門對網路基礎設施的投資也在不斷增長，這些都進一步推動了這一積極趨勢。

In Routing and Switching, we continue to secure new design wins around the world, primarily associated with growth in wireless and accelerated cloud adoption, again, at the edge of the network.

在路由和交換領域，我們繼續在全球範圍內贏得新的設計訂單，這主要與無線網路的成長和雲端技術的加速採用有關，同樣是在網路邊緣。

And we continue to expand our addressable market in this space as we invest in new technologies and solutions to address additional use cases such as residential broadband.

我們將繼續擴大我們在該領域的目標市場，投資新技術和解決方案，以滿足住宅寬頻等更多應用場景的需求。

In Blue Planet, demand continues for automation that enables differentiated digital services for a fully-connected experience. 5G, we believe, will continue to fuel the need for OSS modernization as new innovative services require end-to-end service life cycle automation.

在藍色星球（Blue Planet）中，對能夠實現差異化數位服務並打造全連接體驗的自動化需求持續成長。我們相信，隨著創新服務需要端到端的服務生命週期自動化，5G將持續推動OSS現代化改造的需求。

These demand dynamics are present in our order book today. And we expect continued demand to address these network requirements, will result in a growing backlog as we move through the second half of the year.

這些需求動態已體現在我們目前的訂單中。我們預計，為滿足這些網路需求，持續的需求將導致下半年訂單積壓不斷增加。

This level of demand far outpaces, frankly, our expectations for orders in the year, driving a backlog that reflects strong underlying secular demand. As a result, we have tremendous confidence in our forward growth opportunities.

坦白說，這種需求水準遠遠超出了我們對今年訂單的預期，由此產生的積壓訂單反映了強勁的潛在長期需求。因此，我們對未來的成長機會充滿信心。

Now with that said, I want to be extremely clear. In this environment, our revenue is not a function of demand or even production capacity for that matter. It is purely a matter of component supply availability.

說了這麼多，我想非常明確地說明一點。在當前環境下，我們的收入與需求或產能無關，完全取決於零件的供應情況。

And that, of course, brings me to supply chain. And as we all know, we remain in a very constrained supply environment, particularly with respect to semiconductors and integrated circuits.

當然，這就引出了供應鏈的問題。眾所周知，我們仍然面臨著非常緊張的供應環境，尤其是在半導體和積體電路方面。

And I think it's important to remember that these particular parts are relevant to multiple industries, from telecom to consumer electronics, to automotive and others, which only serves to exacerbate this global supply challenge.

我認為重要的是要記住，這些特定零件與多個行業相關，從電信到消費性電子，再到汽車等，這只會加劇全球供應鏈的挑戰。

And of course, we continue to employ a range of supply mitigation strategies that we've previously discussed, including placement of large advanced purchase commitments for critical components in short supply with extended lead times and qualifying engineering alternatives to expand our sources of supply.

當然，我們將繼續採用我們之前討論過的一系列供應緩解策略，包括對供應短缺、交貨週期較長的關鍵部件進行大額預購承諾，以及尋找合適的工程替代方案來擴大我們的供應來源。

However, as I mentioned earlier, supply chain conditions appreciably worsened as we moved through Q2. Specifically, we saw a significant increase in both the volume and magnitude of supplier decommits that we weren't able to fully mitigate in two areas that are critical to our business.

然而，正如我之前提到的，隨著第二季的到來，供應鏈狀況明顯惡化。具體而言，我們看到供應商違約的數量和規模都大幅增加，而我們卻無法在對我們業務至關重要的兩個領域完全緩解這個問題。

Firstly, a number of key optical subcomponent suppliers, as they themselves have publicly noted, have been unable to fulfill their supply commitments due to constrained access to semiconductors.

首先，正如一些關鍵光學子組件供應商自己公開指出的那樣，由於半導體供應受限，他們無法履行供貨承諾。

Second, we've seen additional supply decommits for a number of integrated circuit suppliers, centered really on low-value commoditized parts that are essential to the operation of our finished products.

其次，我們看到一些積體電路供應商進一步減少了供應承諾，這些供應商主要集中在對我們成品運作至關重要的低價值商品化零件上。

This second dynamic has been largely related to the COVID lockdowns in China. And while we have, by design, a very low overall supply chain exposure to China, our revenue is being affected, given that China is effectively the primary source of many of these low-value commoditized parts that are essential to the production of IC and semis.

第二個動態主要與中國的新冠疫情封鎖措施有關。雖然我們有意將供應鏈對中國的整體依賴程度降至最低，但鑑於中國實際上是許多低價值、標準化零件（對積體電路和半導體生產至關重要）的主要來源地，我們的收入仍然受到了影響。

On both of these issues, there simply aren't enough parts to go around and satisfy demand across a number of industries and market segments. Just to reiterate, these dynamics do not represent a Ciena-specific challenge, rather this is an industry-wide global challenge.

在這兩個問題上，零件供應量都嚴重不足，無法滿足眾多產業和細分市場的需求。需要重申的是，這並非Ciena公司獨有的挑戰，而是整個產業在全球面臨的共同難題。

And despite the willingness of network operators to spend, we expect that the length and severity of current supply conditions will impact both overall industry growth rates and, of course, our own revenue growth.

儘管網路營運商願意投入資金，但我們預計當前供應狀況的持續時間和嚴重程度將影響整個產業的成長率，當然也會影響我們自身的收入成長。

That said, when our industry begins to see improvement in supply dynamics, our scale, investments, customer relationships and strong balance sheet puts us in the best possible position to service industry demand. With that, I'll turn over to Jim for more detail on Q2 and to discuss our guidance. Jim?

也就是說，一旦我們行業的供應動態開始改善，憑藉我們的規模、投資、客戶關係和穩健的資產負債表，我們將處於最佳位置，以滿足行業需求。接下來，我將把麥克風交給吉姆，讓他詳細介紹第二季的情況並討論我們的業績指引。吉姆？

Thank you, Gary. Good morning, everyone. We delivered Q2 revenue of $949 million, in line with our guidance. Adjusted gross margin in the quarter was 43%, also in line with our guidance and consistent with our expectation for a revenue mix that includes a larger proportion of lower-margin common equipment.

謝謝 Gary。大家早安。我們第二季營收為 9.49 億美元，符合預期。本季調整後毛利率為 43%，也符合預期，並且與我們對營收結構中低利潤率通用設備佔比增加的預期相符。

It also reflects significantly higher component costs and also higher logistics expense. We expect these dynamics to continue as we move through the remainder of this year. Adjusted operating expense in Q2 was $301 million.

這也反映出零件成本和物流費用大幅上漲。我們預計這種趨勢將在今年剩餘時間內持續。第二季調整後的營運費用為3.01億美元。

It is important to point out that while our results were in line with guidance, this achievement was a significant task in the current environment and required outstanding execution across a number of functions inside Ciena.

需要指出的是，雖然我們的結果符合預期，但在當前環境下取得這項成就是一項重大任務，需要 Ciena 內部多個部門的出色執行。

Moving to profitability measures. We delivered adjusted operating margin of 11.3%, adjusted net income of $76 million and adjusted EPS of $0.50. In addition to Q2, cash from operations was $106 million.

接下來是獲利指標。我們實現了11.3%的調整後營業利潤率、7,600萬美元的調整後淨利和0.50美元的調整後每股收益。加上第二季度，經營活動產生的現金流量為1.06億美元。

Free cash flow was $86 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $129 million. We ended the quarter with approximately $1.6 billion in cash and investments.

自由現金流為8600萬美元，調整後EBITDA為1.29億美元。本季末，我們持有約16億美元的現金和投資。

Also in Q2, we repurchased approximately 1.5 million shares for $87 million and received 900,000 shares of common stock, pursuant to the final settlement of the accelerated share repurchase program, which we implemented earlier in the year.

第二季度，我們根據今年稍早實施的加速股票回購計畫的最終結算，回購了約 150 萬股股票，耗資 8,700 萬美元，並收到了 90 萬股普通股。

We continue to expect to repurchase approximately $250 million of shares in fiscal 2022 in addition to ASR.

除了 ASR 之外，我們預計在 2022 財年還將回購約 2.5 億美元的股票。

China [lockdowns]. Overall, industry supply chain conditions make providing guidance extremely challenging at this time. Conditions were more difficult in Q2 than in previous quarters, mainly because of a higher number of decommits from our supply base, caused both by semiconductor availability and China lockdowns.

中國[封鎖]。整體而言，目前的產業供應鏈狀況使得提供業績指引極為困難。第二季的情況比前幾季更為嚴峻，主要原因是由於半導體供應短缺和中國封鎖導致供應商取消訂單數量增加。

Demand drivers are very robust. But as Gary said, in this environment, our revenue is not a function of demand. It is purely a matter of component supply availability.

需求驅動因素非常強勁。但正如加里所說，在當前環境下，我們的收入並非取決於需求，而是完全取決於零件的供應情況。

Also, with the current state of the supply chain and the resulting greater uncertainty, there is a wider range of potential outcomes in the coming quarters than has been the case.

此外，鑑於當前供應鏈狀況以及由此帶來的更大不確定性，未來幾季可能出現的結果範圍比以往更廣。

As always, though, we are providing our best perspective today about our expected performance in Q3 and for the fiscal year. Importantly, this view assumes that our component suppliers deliver on their most recent commitments and that we don't encounter any substantial new decommits that we cannot successfully mitigate.

不過，與往常一樣，我們今天提供的是我們目前對第三季及全年業績的最佳預測。需要注意的是，這項預測的前提是我們的零件供應商能夠履行其最近的承諾，我們不會遇到任何無法有效應對的重大新違約情況。

With that, in Q3, we expect to deliver revenue in a range of $870 million to $930 million. This lower range for expected revenue is entirely driven by conditions in our supply chain.

因此，我們預計第三季營收將在8.7億美元至9.3億美元之間。營收預期下限完全是由供應鏈狀況所致。

We expect gross margin for Q3 in the low 40s percentage range, which reflects the continuation of the same dynamics that we saw in the second quarter, a higher percentage of revenue from line systems and common equipment, again, coupled with greater-than-expected component costs and higher logistics expense.

我們預計第三季毛利率在 40% 左右，這反映了我們在第二季度看到的相同動態的延續，即來自生產線系統和通用設備的收入比例更高，再加上高於預期的零件成本和更高的物流費用。

And finally, we expect OpEx of $305 million to $310 million. With respect to the full fiscal year, we are adjusting our expectations for exactly the same reasons and with the same assumptions. We now expect to deliver annual revenue growth in fiscal 2022 in the mid-single digits.

最後，我們預計營運支出為 3.05 億美元至 3.1 億美元。就整個財年而言，我們出於完全相同的原因和假設調整了預期。我們現在預計 2022 財年的年度營收成長將達到中等個位數。

Gross margin for the fiscal year, we expect to be in the low 40s percentages. Our operating expense will be roughly consistent with an average of $300 million per quarter for the full year, perhaps a little bit higher in Q4, mostly due to compensation expense.

本財年毛利率預計在40%左右。全年營運費用大致與平均每季3億美元持平，第四季可能會略高一些，主要原因是薪資支出。

And finally, operating margin in the low double digits. Generally speaking, the growing consensus view in the industry is that supply chain conditions will take at least several more quarters to return to a normalized state.

最後，營業利潤率僅為兩位數左右。總的來說，業界普遍認為，供應鏈狀況至少還需要幾個季度才能恢復正常。

Given the persistence and unpredictability of these challenges to date, we believe that is a reasonable assumption at this time. But it is entirely possible that this timeline will continue to change. It is an incredibly dynamic situation.

鑑於這些挑戰迄今為止的持續性和不可預測性，我們認為目前這是一個合理的假設。但時間表完全有可能繼續改變。形勢瞬息萬變。

Furthermore, it is critical to remember that there will not be a light-switch moment, that is a single moment in time when conditions improve and the flow of supply returns to normalized levels. Any recovery, when it begins, will be gradual and will occur over time.

此外，至關重要的是要記住，不會出現「一蹴而就」的局面，即情況不會在某個瞬間突然好轉，供應量也不會立即恢復正常水平。任何復甦，即便開始，也將是一個漸進的過程，需要時間慢慢累積。

In summary, we're mindful of variability of outcomes the supply challenges present in the near term, but we are prepared to benefit when a meaningful and sustained recovery in supply dynamics occurs.

總而言之，我們意識到短期內供應挑戰帶來的結果存在不確定性，但我們已做好準備，一旦供應動態出現有意義且持續的復甦，我們將從中受益。

Importantly, we are extremely positive about the durability of the underlying secular drivers, which continue to drive a significant and growing backlog that reflects not only a strong demand environment but also our continued market leadership.

重要的是，我們對潛在的長期驅動因素的持久性非常樂觀，這些因素持續推動著大量且不斷增長的積壓訂單，這不僅反映了強勁的需求環境，也反映了我們持續的市場領導地位。

Combined with our relationships with customers and suppliers and the mitigation steps we are taking to address current challenges, we are very well positioned for long-term growth and success. With that, we'll now take questions from the sell-side analysts. Rob?

憑藉我們與客戶和供應商的良好關係，以及我們為應對當前挑戰而採取的緩解措施，我們已為長期成長和成功做好了充分準備。接下來，我們將回答賣方分析師的問題。羅伯？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Your first question comes from the line of Paul Silverstein from Cowen.

你的第一個問題來自考恩的保羅·西爾弗斯坦。

Jim and Gary, can you discuss what linearity looked like in the quarter? And perhaps even more importantly, what has been -- what do bookings look like over the past 4 weeks leading up to today?

吉姆和加里，你們能談談本季的線性成長嗎？更重要的是，過去四周（截至今天）的預訂情況如何？

And then I've got -- and Jim, related to that, what would guidance be for July and for the October fiscal year? But for the supply chain impact, how much revenue was impacted? What was the gross margin impact?

然後我還有──吉姆，關於這一點，7月和10月的財年業績指引是什麼？供應鏈受到的影響有多大，收入又受到了多大影響？毛利率受到了多大影響？

Yes. With respect to linearity, as has always been the case, we are back-end loaded. Typically, it's because of the timing of our orders. But in this case, it has to do with the delivery of components to our contract manufacturer. So we've had a very nonlinear flow of orders.

是的。就線性度而言，和以往一樣，我們的訂單量一直落後。通常這是由於訂單時間安排造成的。但這次的情況則與向我們的代工廠交付零件有關。因此，我們的訂單流非常不連續。

They've been strong, really, the entire year and not necessarily in the last month of the quarter. Even though it's strong in the last month of the quarter, it's not as back-end loaded on the order side. But on the supply side, it has been back-end loaded and, therefore, our revenue has been back-end loaded.

實際上，他們全年表現都很強勁，並非只集中在季度末。雖然季末最後一個月表現強勁，但訂單方面並非像其他月份那樣集中在後段。然而，供應方面卻集中在後段，因此，我們的收入也集中在後段。

So Paul, the other thing I would add in terms of the linearity of orders, as Jim said, it's been pretty consistent. Q2 was over [1.5] ratio to revenue. And we expect to continue to build backlog for the second half of the year as well.

所以保羅，關於訂單的線性增長，我想補充一點，正如吉姆所說，訂單量一直相當穩定。第二季訂單量佔營收的比例超過了1.5倍。我們預計下半年訂單積壓量也將持續成長。

So we are seeing very consistent demand, which is really driven by just the increase in traffic and the adoption of cloud at both the consumer and enterprise level on a global basis.

因此，我們看到需求非常穩定，這實際上是由全球範圍內消費者和企業層面的流量成長和雲端運算普及所驅動的。

So initially, there was a little bit of catch-up and then there's some forward ordering, but it's not that much. We've only got -- in '23, requested, we've only got a few hundred million. Most folks would take everything we've got right now. So that's why we talk to this very sustainable order flow demand.

所以一開始確實有一些追趕訂單，然後也有一些預購訂單，但數量不多。我們2023年只收到了數億美元的訂單。大多數人現在就已經想要我們所有的庫存了。所以這就是為什麼我們強調這種可持續的訂單流需求。

And to your specific question about what our guidance would have been, it's a number that is almost beyond the pale, Paul, because we've got a backlog of over $4 billion, as Gary said. Only a few hundred million of that is true 2023 demand.

至於你問到的我們原本的預期是多少，保羅，那是一個幾乎不可能達到的數字，因為正如加里所說，我們有超過40億美元的積壓訂單。其中只有幾億美元是2023年的實際需求。

All the rest of it is asked for by the customers in this year. So our revenue for this year would have been extremely high if we were able to get the components to manufacture it.

其餘產品都是客戶今年提出的要求。因此，如果我們能夠獲得生產所需的零件，我們今年的收入將會非常高。

Now, I don't think people should take that as the -- if you just run the numbers there and figure out what our revenue could be this year, you shouldn't take that as our run rate.

現在，我認為人們不應該把這當作——如果你只是計算一下，算出我們今年的收入可能是多少，你不應該把這當作我們的年化收入。

This is a catch-up. It's the fact that they're all trying to get ahead of everybody else with their orders, but it does speak to the strength of demand and what we think is very durable demand.

這是追趕趨勢。事實上，他們都想搶在其他人之前下單，但這確實反映了強勁的需求，以及我們認為這種需求將非常持久。

Jim, just to be clear, you all -- I don't think you provided the backlog number last quarter. It was $2.17 billion coming out of October. What was the backlog increase in April?

吉姆，我得跟你們說清楚──我記得你上個季度沒有提供積壓訂單的數據。 10月的積壓訂單是21.7億美元。 4月的積壓訂單增加了多少？

And just to be perfectly clear with respect to my question about linearity and order strength, the forward indicators you're looking at, order growth and all the other leading indicators that speak to future demand, there's been no attenuation of recent (inaudible).

為了完全明確地回答我關於線性和訂單強度的問題，你所看到的遠期指標、訂單增長以及所有其他反映未來需求的領先指標，最近的（聽不清楚）並沒有減弱。

I mean, obviously, this goes to the concern -- the widespread concern about a macro slowdown translating into slower economic activity for virtually everybody, yourself included. You're arguing that's not what's going on, this is purely supply-driven.

我的意思是，很顯然，這涉及到人們普遍擔憂的問題——宏觀經濟放緩會導致幾乎所有人（包括您自己）的經濟活動放緩。您認為實際情況並非如此，這完全是供給面驅動的。

But again, my question here is, looking at demand trends, looking at all the different forward indicators, you're not seeing any attenuation in [strength]?

但我的問題是，從需求趨勢和所有不同的前瞻性指標來看，你們沒有看到任何減弱的跡象嗎？

No, we're not, Paul. I mean -- and the rough rounded numbers, we came out of the year at over $2 billion. We came out of last quarter with over $3 billion. We came out of this quarter with over $4 billion.

不，我們不是，保羅。我的意思是——粗略估計一下，我們今年的收入超過20億美元。上個季度超過30億美元。這個季度超過40億美元。

And everything that we're seeing in forecast with our customers, tells us that might not continue at that pace. But we're going to continue to grow backlog with the order flow.

我們從客戶的預測中了解到，這種成長速度可能不會持續下去。但隨著訂單量的增加，我們的積壓訂單量將持續成長。

And the other thing I'd say about macroeconomics, whilst no industry is immune from that, I do think that cloud adoption has proven to be incredibly resilient in the ups and downs of various economic moves.

關於宏觀經濟，我還想說的是，雖然沒有一個產業能夠免受其影響，但我認為，雲端運算的普及已經證明，它在各種經濟波動中都具有極強的韌性。

And I think it's sort of fundamental to how the world works now around getting greater bandwidth closer to the customer, and that's -- we're not seeing any signs of that letting up at all. In fact, the opposite.

我認為這對於當今世界如何讓用戶更容易獲得更高頻寬至關重要，而且——我們絲毫沒有看到這種趨勢放緩的跡象。事實上，情況恰恰相反。

If you look at web-scale, they're planning to build more and more data centers, again, closer to the customers around the world. And we are obviously in partnership with them about their long-term planning. We're not seeing any slowdown on that, whatsoever.

從網路規模的角度來看，他們計劃建造越來越多的資料中心，而這些資料中心都更靠近世界各地的客戶。顯然，我們與他們就其長期規劃保持合作關係。我們完全沒有看到任何放緩的跡象。

Just my follow-up, just to be clear, you can't see in the numbers [particularly] the supply chain situation. But the strength you're referencing, that was broad-based geographically across product markets and across customers?

我再補充一點，為了更清楚地說明問題，您無法從這些數字中看出（特別是）供應鏈的情況。但您提到的優勢，是指在產品市場和客戶群方面，地理分佈廣泛的優勢嗎？

Yes. Yes. Absolutely. Verticals, regions, products, particular strength in our Routing and Switching business, which, as you know, that's a focus for us.

是的，沒錯，絕對是這樣。我們在垂直行業、地區、產品方面都表現出色，尤其是在路由和交換業務方面，正如您所知，這是我們的重點業務。

Your next question comes from the line of Amit Daryanani from Evercore ISI.

你的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Amit Daryanani。

I have two as well. I guess, the first one, maybe simply, if I think about it, the backlog has ramped up from $2.2 billion to $4 billion in the last [4] quarters over the last year.

我也有兩個問題。我想，第一個問題，或許很簡單，仔細想想，積壓訂單在過去一年的[4]個季度裡從22億美元激增至40億美元。

How should we think about -- how much of this is due to just demand is stronger and it's a natural buildup of backlog versus customers that are placing longer-duration orders maybe because they're worried they won't get supply?

我們應該如何看待這個問題——這其中有多少是由於需求強勁導致的自然積壓，又有多少是由於客戶擔心供貨不足而下了更長期限的訂單？

So I don't think this is the way to think about -- yes, the backlog has gone up. How much of that is due to duration going extended by your customers versus all the other supply chain issues you've talked about?

所以我覺得不應該這樣想——沒錯，積壓訂單確實增加了。但其中有多少是因為顧客延長交貨時間造成的，又有多少是因為你提到的其他供應鏈問題造成的呢？

Yes. No, that's a good question, Amit. Let me give you sort of a data point here that I think will help with that. I think you've got a confluence of sort of three things going on. You've got a little bit of catch-up.

是的。沒錯，阿米特，你問得好。我提供你一些數據，我覺得會有幫助。我認為你現在的情況是三件事交織在一起。你有點兒需要迎頭趕上。

That certainly was the case sort of probably 12 months ago, where carriers were very conservative during COVID, both from an operational perspective and from a fiscal perspective, they were playing a bit of catch-up. That's largely flowed out.

大約12個月前，情況確實如此。在新冠疫情期間，航空公司無論從營運或財務角度都非常保守，都在努力追趕。這種情況現在已經基本結束了。

Then we are seeing a little bit of certain customers looking at security of supply and are giving us more visibility, longer into the cycle. That's absolutely happening. But an interesting data point around -- is it real traffic that they're trying to buy for and address or is it just security of supply chain?

然後我們看到一些客戶開始關注供應安全，並讓我們更深入地了解週期中的情況。這種情況確實存在。但一個有趣的數據點是──他們購買和解決的究竟是實際的流量問題，還是只是為了供應鏈安全？

Of the $4 billion plus in hardware, we've only got a few hundred million that is requested for '23. All the rest of it is requested for '22. Now, that's not going to happen, and clearly for all the reasons that we've just talked about.

在超過 40 億美元的硬體採購中，只有幾億美元是為 2023 年申請的。其餘的都是為 2022 年申請的。現在，這種情況不會發生，顯然原因正如我們剛才所說。

But it does give you, I think, a great insight into the fact that there's not that much forward ordering in that backlog. This is real demand that [folks demand].

但我認為這確實能讓你深刻地認識到，積壓訂單中並沒有那麼多提前預訂的商品。這是人們真正需要的。

And just another clarifying couple of points here. Our backlog is definitely a double-edged sword here. It's great to have the demand. It's great that the orders are placed on us as compared to our competitors.

還有幾點要澄清。我們的訂單積壓確實是一把雙面刃。有需求固然是好事，與競爭對手相比，訂單更落在我們身上也是件好事。

But part of the reason that we have such a big backlog is because our lead times are longer than we'd like them to be. And we're not making our customers delighted as we like to do.

但我們積壓訂單如此之多的部分原因是我們的交貨週期比我們預期的要長。而且，我們也沒能像我們希望的那樣讓客戶滿意。

And so the fact is that when we get new orders, which we've had a ton of this year, most of them are being scheduled out in the latter part of this year, in some cases, into 2023.

因此，事實是，當我們收到新訂單時（今年我們收到了很多訂單），大多數訂單都被安排在今年下半年交付，有些訂單甚至要等到 2023 年才能交付。

As Gary said, it's not really 2023 demand, but that's when we can deliver it. So it's -- as we say, it's a double-edged sword. We're glad we have the orders, but we'd like to delight our customers.

正如加里所說，這並非真正的2023年需求，但我們只有到那時才能交付。所以，正如我們所說，這是一把雙面刃。我們很高興接到了訂單，但我們更希望讓客戶滿意。

Fair enough, and that's really helpful. I guess just my follow-up would be -- in the past, when we've had a revenue challenge or headwind, [gross margin] have typically done really well. I think it's been a mix of new projects versus existing ones.

好的，這很有幫助。我想補充一點——過去，當我們遇到營收挑戰或逆境時，毛利率通常表現得很好。我認為這得益於新項目和現有項目的共同努力。

Just (inaudible) ever seen the revenue headwind, but we aren't seeing a gross margin offset or tailwind. So maybe just talk about why aren't we seeing that tailwind because historically lower revenues has meant better gross margins for the company. So why is that not happening this time around?

剛才（聽不清楚）我們確實看到了營收下滑，但並沒有看到毛利率下降帶來的抵銷或利好。所以，或許可以討論為什麼我們沒有看到這種利好，因為從歷史數據來看，營收下降通常意味著公司毛利率更高。那麼，為什麼這次情況會有所不同呢？

Amit, I'll take the first part of that, and then maybe Jim or Scott can talk to the actual sort of increase in cost.

阿米特，我來回答第一部分，然後吉姆或史考特或許可以談談實際成本增加的問題。

The first part of it is really mix. And so, Amit, what we're seeing is, remember, we've won a lot of new global strategic carriers and web-scale build-outs that we're now deploying.

第一部分確實是混合型的。所以，阿米特，我們現在看到的是，記住，我們已經贏得了許多新的全球戰略運營商和網路規模的建設項目，我們現在正在部署這些項目。

So a lot of that is really, I think, commons and line systems, which tends to be lower margin. So just the general mix on the business, given the size of it, even though Routing and Switching is doing well and Software is doing well, it really -- the large part of the mix is around those line systems right now.

所以我覺得，其中很大一部分其實是公共設備和線路系統，而這些業務的利潤率往往較低。因此，考慮到公司規模，儘管路由交換和軟體業務表現良好，但目前大部分業務仍圍繞著線路系統。

Now, it bodes extremely well for the future because then we can put in cards and modems, which tend to be higher gross margins. So you've got a different mix, really based on the demand that we're seeing. And a lot of it's new builds that were both with new customers and with existing folks.

現在看來，這對未來來說是個非常好的預兆，因為這樣我們就可以添加網路卡和數據機，而這些產品的毛利率通常會更高。所以，產品組合會根據我們看到的市場需求而有所不同。其中很多都是新建項目，有新客戶，也有老客戶。

Yes. And just to put some numbers on it, Amit, remember the last time we've talked about what we believe to be our long-term gross margin -- or run rate gross margin, I should say, is around mid-40s. We said 44% to 46%. So I'm going to shorthand it at 45%.

是的。阿米特，為了更具體地說明，你還記得我們上次討論我們認為的長期毛利率——或者應該說是運行毛利率——時，大約在40%左右嗎？我們當時說的是44%到46%。所以我就簡寫成45%吧。

When we went into COVID, there was a smaller percentage of new builds because of the difficulty of getting supplies in people out to locations. And so we had a higher percentage of capacity adds, which are higher in gross margin. So we enjoyed that.

新冠疫情爆發後，由於物資運輸和人員流動受阻，新建工程比例下降。因此，產能擴建計畫的比例上升，而產能擴建計畫的毛利率較高。我們對此感到欣喜。

But we said, as we entered this year, that we thought that our gross margin this year was going to be 43% to 46% overall because we did expect a higher proportion of new builds and commons and photonics, which are inherently lower margin.

但我們在今年年初就說過，我們認為今年的毛利率總體上會在 43% 到 46% 之間，因為我們預計新建項目、公共設施和光子學項目的比例會更高，而這些項目的利潤率本身就較低。

That was our expectation, coming into this year. Now what's happened is, we are seeing that. But we're also seeing significantly higher premiums that we're paying to get parts. We're trying our best to supply our customers, even if it costs us money and gross margin, which it is, and also higher logistics costs.

今年年初，我們的預期就是這樣。現在的情況是，我們確實看到了這一點。但同時，我們也發現零件的溢價顯著上漲。我們正在盡最大努力為客戶提供服務，即使這意味著成本增加、毛利率下降（事實的確如此），以及更高的物流成本。

The rough math for the effect on this year's gross margin of those two latter points, meaning premiums and logistics costs, is roughly 400 basis points. You can think of it that way. So you can do math and get to where you think our gross margin might be without these.

粗略計算一下，後兩項（即保費和物流成本）對今年毛利率的影響大約是400個基點。你可以這樣理解。所以你可以自己算算，如果沒有這兩項成本，我們的毛利率大概會是多少。

We are reasonably confident that we're going to get back to those mid-40s at least, as we come out of the supply chain situation. But we can't give you a prediction as to when it's going to occur.

我們相當有信心，隨著供應鏈問題的解決，至少能恢復到40%左右的水準。但我們無法預測具體時間。

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Long from Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的提姆朗。

Your next question comes from the line of George Notter from Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的喬治諾特。

I guess I wanted to ask about purchase commitments. I think you said in the monologue that one of your mitigating initiatives was to ramp up purchase commitments.

我想問的是採購承諾方面的問題。我記得您在獨白中提到，您的緩解措施之一就是增加採購承諾。

Could you tell us what that purchase commitment number was? And I think if I recall correctly, when you printed the 10-K, that number was about $430 million. So just curious if that number is up.

可否告知我們採購承諾金額是多少？我記得，在你們提交的10-K文件中，這個數字大約是4.3億美元。所以想了解這個數字是否有增加。

Yes, that's up quite significantly, George. It's up to about $1.8 billion today. We've essentially laid out to our supply chain at least the next 18 months of what we see as demand. So if they deliver on that, we're going to do very well.

是的，喬治，這個數字成長相當顯著。今天已經達到約18億美元。我們基本上已經向供應鏈供應商預測了未來至少18個月的需求。所以如果他們能夠滿足這些預測，我們的業績將會非常好。

Got it. Okay. And then the other thing I wanted to ask about was your inventories started to inflect, I think, just a couple of quarters ago -- look, obviously, the supply chain environment has been around for a couple of years.

明白了。好的。我還想問一下，你們的庫存似乎在幾個季度前開始出現波動——當然，供應鏈環境已經存在好幾年了。

And so purchase commitments are just inflecting, now inventories are just inflecting in the last quarter or two. I guess, I'm wondering if like this is more of an execution issue at Ciena or do you think by and large you guys have executed as well as anybody else?

所以，採購承諾和庫存都在過去一、兩個季度有所波動。我想知道，這更多是Ciena的執行問題，還是你認為你們的執行總體上與其他公司一樣出色？

Let me take the first part of that, George, and maybe Scott can talk to the inventory a little more precisely. I mean, listen, I think that -- I think to date, we've navigated it extremely well. I mean you look at the performance. We shipped more in the second half than we did -- in the first half than we did in the previous year.

喬治，我先說第一部分，史考特或許可以更詳細地談談庫存狀況。我的意思是，聽著，我認為——我認為到目前為止，我們處理得非常好。你看業績就知道了。我們下半年的出貨量比上半年還多，也比去年同期多。

Revenues are up 14% in the quarter. So I think the numbers talk to themselves, particularly when compared to the competition. So we're a much larger installed base. We're a much larger business with larger market share, but we're still growing the business and shipping more.

本季營收成長了14%。我認為這些數據本身就足以說明問題，尤其是在與競爭對手相比時。我們的用戶基數更大，業務規模更大，市場份額也更高，但我們仍在不斷增長，出貨量也在增加。

It's not where we want to be or where we could be if we had supply. So I think generally, we're navigating through better than anybody else, but it's not -- it isn't where we want to be from, as Jim said, from a customer satisfaction point of view.

這不是我們想要達到的狀態，也不是如果我們供應充足的話我們本來可以達到的狀態。所以我覺得總的來說，我們比其他人做得更好，但正如吉姆所說，從客戶滿意度的角度來看，這並不是我們想要達到的狀態。

And George, just to speak a little bit to the inventory position, a couple of dynamics there that are all rooted in conscious decisions. And it really relates back to Jim's comment of we're not pleased with the way we're servicing our customers.

喬治，關於庫存狀況，我想簡單談談，這其中有幾個因素都源自於我們深思熟慮的決策。這其實也呼應了吉姆先前的評論，那就是我們對目前的客戶服務方式並不滿意。

So we are making investments in component inventory, where we can get our hands on it, in preparation for the last remaining items that come in, in order for us to turn it into finished goods, so that we can do that very quickly for our customers when they become available.

因此，我們正在對零件庫存進行投資，只要我們能夠獲得這些零件，就為最後剩餘的零件到貨做好準備，以便我們能夠將其加工成成品，這樣我們就可以在成品到貨時迅速將其交付給我們的客戶。

We've also complemented that with manufacturing capacity expansion. So again, we can turn components into finished goods as fast as possible for our customers. So it was a conscious decision.

我們也透過擴大生產能力來配合這一目標。因此，我們可以盡快將零件轉換為成品，以滿足客戶的需求。所以，這是我們深思熟慮後的決定。

If you look inside that inventory number, you'll see it -- more of it has shifted actually to the component level versus the finished goods level as well. And you can see that dynamic happening.

如果你仔細查看庫存數據，你會發現，實際上更多的庫存已經從成品轉移到了零件層面。你可以看到這種動態變化。

And just to the point of our purchase commitments, George, if you read the statement and how we describe it, we talk about noncancelable purchase commitments.

喬治，關於我們的購買承諾，如果你閱讀聲明以及我們是如何描述的，你會發現我們談論的是不可取消的購買承諾。

If you think about the -- there are certain procedures that we have to go through, in order to cancel, but our actual total purchase commitments, even a year ago, were much higher than the $400 million that we disclosed because we considered that a lot of it was cancelable.

如果你仔細想想——取消訂單需要經過一些程序，但即使在一年前，我們實際的總採購承諾也遠高於我們披露的 4 億美元，因為我們認為其中許多都是可以取消的。

Today, we -- given the demand situation, we've sort of viewed essentially all, perhaps not essentially all, of our forward purchase commitments as noncancelable because we're not going to cancel them. We need the stuff.

鑑於目前的需求情況，我們基本上把所有（或許並非全部）遠期採購承諾都視為不可取消的，因為我們不會取消它們。我們需要這些貨物。

So if you could see inside that logic, you would have a different view of what our purchase -- our total purchase commitments were even a year -- a lot higher.

所以，如果你能理解其中的邏輯，你就會對我們的採購——我們全年的總採購承諾——有不同的看法，而且採購額要高得多。

The other thing I'd add to that, George, is that I'd just remind really, that's raw component cost. That's -- there's no transformation on that. That doesn't include the inventory that we've got on stack.

喬治，我還要補充一點，那就是這真的是原料成本。這裡面沒有任何加工成本。這不包括我們庫存的現有庫存。

So if you add all of that lot together, we basically have provided commitments out to our supply chain for key elements, for the next 18 months.

因此，如果把所有這些加起來，我們基本上已經為未來 18 個月的關鍵要素向我們的供應鏈做出了承諾。

As I think about the kind of manufacturing side of this, I know, for example, going back to OFC, we were talking to some of your customers. I know lead times were more than a year. Where are lead times now?

當我思考這方面的生產製造環節時，例如，回到OFC項目，我們當時和你們的一些客戶交流過。我知道當時的交貨週期超過一年。現在的交貨週期是怎麼樣的呢？

And do you think there's some potential for you guys to lose share, now that we're hitting again, longer and longer lead times and it's frustrating of certain -- for customers?

鑑於我們再次面臨交貨週期越來越長的問題，這無疑會讓客戶感到沮喪，您認為您是否有可能失去市場份額？

Yes. Lead times, George, are 100% a function of the component availability. It's not a function of our manufacturing capacity, so I'll point that out. And the numbers you sort of quoted is kind of in the range of where we're sitting today from a lead time perspective.

是的。喬治，交貨週期完全取決於零件的供應情況，與我們的產能無關，這一點我要特別說明。你剛才提到的那些數字，和我們目前的交貨週期水準差不多。

And bending the curve on that, again, goes back to when do you believe the component supply industry starts to show better performance. Do you want to talk to the durability of the demand, anyone?

而要扭轉這個局面，關鍵還是在於你認為零件供應產業何時才能開始展現出更好的業績。有人想談需求的持久性嗎？

Yes. I mean I think in terms of the competitive environment, our market share -- let's look at a couple of data points here. Our market share in the first half, we think, increased 1% during all of this.

是的。我的意思是，就競爭環境而言，我們的市場佔有率——我們來看幾個數據點。我們認為，在上半年，我們的市佔率成長了1%。

That's revenue. That's not...

那是收入。那不是…

And that's absolute revenue. Yes, that's not shipments. I mean, we shipped actually more than that. But it's -- that's excluding China. So we grew 1%. And I think the other two data points is, our revenue grew more than the competition in the first half.

這是絕對營收。是的，這不包括出貨量。我的意思是，實際上我們的出貨量比這多。但這不包括中國市場。所以我們成長了1%。我認為另外兩個數據點是，我們上半年的營收成長超過了競爭對手。

So we're shipping more, and we're a much bigger company than a lot of those folks in optical share. And then the other testament to it is the order flow. I don't think anybody is seeing the kind of order validation from the customers, knowing what our lead times are. And we're still increasing our backlog. We've been very transparent with our customers.

所以我們出貨量更大，而且我們的規模比許多光學產品競爭對手都要大得多。訂單流也印證了這一點。我認為，在了解我們的交貨週期之後，其他公司很少會像我們一樣收到客戶的訂單確認。而且我們的積壓訂單還在增加。我們一直對客戶保持高度透明。

But remember, our products are highly differentiated. We have, by far, the best technology and relationships with these customers. And I think global scale and balance sheet and those relationships are absolutely critical to coming through this with a winning hand. And that's what we're focused on.

但請記住，我們的產品具有高度差異化。我們擁有迄今為止最頂尖的技術，並且與這些客戶建立了穩固的關係。我認為，全球規模、雄厚的資產負債表以及這些關係對於我們最終贏得這場危機至關重要。而這正是我們關注的重點。

And just as importantly, all of our competitors are looking at the same supply chain conditions that we are. And so it's unlikely that anybody is looking at wildly different lead times than what we're able to provide.

同樣重要的是，我們所有的競爭對手都面臨著和我們一樣的供應鏈狀況。因此，不太可能有人會提供與我們截然不同的交貨週期。

Your next question comes from the line of Fahad Najam from Loop Capital.

你的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 Fahad Najam。

Gary, if I look at your backlog commentary and the quantification you provided and across your competitors, the cynical [mediocre in me] says, I have the networking -- or the optical networking, market hasn't been growing this past -- broadband speeds to my home hasn't really changed much in the last -- since the COVID pandemic started.

Gary，如果我看看你對積壓訂單的評論和你提供的量化數據，再看看你的競爭對手，我內心憤世嫉俗的一面（平庸的一面）會說，我的網絡——或者說光網絡市場——在過去一段時間裡並沒有增長——我家的寬頻速度在過去一段時間裡並沒有太大變化——自從 COVID 疫情開始以來。

So where is this all (inaudible) coming from or is it just a pure function of customers double order, not forward ordering but double ordering, in order to secure more supplies? What do you say to that?

那麼，這一切（聽不清楚）究竟從何而來？還是說這只是因為顧客為了確保獲得更多供應而重複下單（不是提前下單而是重複下單）？對此您有何看法？

I say to that, we're not seeing that. There may be some minimal amount of that. But given the fact that this is not commodity stuff, you can't swap and change around it. And the relationships we have with our customers, I think that is not a dynamic that we're seeing. What's driving this is real bandwidth growth.

對此，我的回答是，我們並沒有看到這種情況。或許存在一些微不足道的此類情況。但鑑於這並非大宗商品，你無法隨意更換或調整。而且考慮到我們與客戶的關係，我認為我們目前並未看到這種趨勢。真正推動這一趨勢的是頻寬的實際成長。

And when you think about what's happened during the pandemic, people were using more bandwidth, but carriers weren't spending. And this market was kind of flat for about 2 years. And we expected an uptick, which we began to see about 18 months ago.

想想疫情期間的情況，人們使用更多頻寬，但營運商卻沒有增加支出。這個市場在兩年內基本上處於低迷狀態。我們預期會出現回升，而這種回升趨勢大約在18個月前開始出現。

So I think it's -- the demand from the customers has continued to increase from the consumers of this, both the consumers and the enterprise space. What we're seeing is just an uptick in cloud adoption, both at a personal level and at a global enterprise level. It's about getting bandwidth much faster, closer to the customer in their various forms.

所以我認為，無論是消費者或企業用戶，對雲端服務的需求都在持續成長。我們看到的是雲端採用率的提升，無論是在個人層面還是在全球企業層面。這關乎如何以更快的速度、更便捷的方式為各種類型的客戶提供頻寬。

And that's why we're seeing an uptick across all of the sectors, submarine, data center interconnect, metro edge. All of the engagements that we have are all about how do we get more capacity, more efficiently out there.

這就是為什麼我們看到所有領域都在成長，包括海底光纜、資料中心互連和城域邊緣運算。我們所有的合作項目都圍繞著如何更有效率地提升現有容量。

So this is not embedded in some false security of supply/demand piece. Absolutely not. This is about real demand of traffic. And for all the reasons, I think we can all understand and we see in our daily lives.

所以這並非建立在虛假的供需關係之上。絕對不是。這關乎真實的交通需求。至於其中的原因，我想我們都能理解，而且在日常生活中也隨處可見。

One thing I'd say though, Fahad, is this, that for a long, long time, this industry has grown at low to mid-single digits, overall. And we've grown at sort of 8%. And our last guide for 3 years said, we do expect the industry to continue to grow at historic rates, and we expect to grow at 6% to 8%.

不過，法哈德，我想說的是，長期以來，整個產業的成長率一直維持在個位數低點到中位數。而我們自身的成長率大約是8%。我們上一份為期三年的預測報告指出，我們預期該產業將持續維持歷史成長速度，預計成長率介於6%到8%之間。

So none of that has changed, in our view. The world continues to act as it has been acting. So we're not saying that this kind of order flow is going to continue for the long term. We think that order flow will be good, it's not going to be at the higher levels that we're seeing this year.

所以，在我們看來，這些都沒有改變。世界依然如故。因此，我們並不是說這種訂單流會長期持續下去。我們認為訂單流會保持良好，但不會像今年這樣高企。

So I don't want you to think that we're calling up our growth rate. I would say this, I think, given what we think our backlog will be at the end of this year and assuming that our suppliers deliver on their commitments to us, we'll have a growth rate in revenue next year that's well above the 6% to 8% than we've seen in the past.

所以我不想讓你們誤以為我們在誇大成長率。我想說的是，考慮到我們對今年年底訂單積壓的預期，並且假設我們的供應商能夠履行對我們的承諾，我認為明年我們的收入增長率將遠高於過去6%到8%的水平。

I can't give you a number on that, but it's going to be good. But again, our long-term view of the future of the industry is, grows at 3% to 5%, and we're going to grow in that world of 6% to 8%. That's what we think today.

我無法給出具體數字，但情況會不錯。不過，我們對產業未來的長期展望是，成長率在3%到5%之間，而我們本身的成長率將達到6%到8%。這是我們目前的看法。

My follow-up, kind of really piggyback on George's question on the extending lead times and the supply chain shortages. To what extent are these forcing your customers to change architectures, maybe shift (inaudible) pluggable?

我的後續問題，其實是藉用喬治關於交貨週期延長和供應鏈短缺的問題。這些問題在多大程度上迫使您的客戶改變架構，或將（聽不清楚）可插拔元件進行調整？

You can plug a plug into an existing router, you don't have to ship a new power system or power supply, et cetera. So do you think there is a risk of customers adopting pluggables faster because this will [eat] the bandwidth?

你可以把插頭插到現有的路由器上，不需要運送新的電源系統或電源轉接器等等。那你認為這會不會因為佔用頻寬而導致客戶更快接受可插拔設備？

No, not at all. In fact, I think, ironically, the dynamic may be the opposite because in order to take advantage of those pluggables, you actually have to upgrade your entire switching and routing infrastructure to a 400-gig infrastructure. That is constrained by the supply chain as well.

不，完全不是。事實上，我認為諷刺的是，情況可能恰恰相反，因為為了利用這些可插拔設備，你實際上必須將整個交換和路由基礎設施升級到 400G 的基礎設施。而這也受到供應鏈的限制。

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Long from Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的提姆朗。

Sorry about that before. Two questions, if I could. First, let's just beat a dead horse and then a second one. Jim -- or Jim and Gary, last guidance implied no decommits. And when we look at the Q4 to get to the full year, looks like a pretty big sequential increase, probably something like 20%.

之前打擾您了，很抱歉。如果可以的話，我想問兩個問題。首先，我們先來談談之前討論過的問題，然後再問第二個問題。吉姆——或者吉姆和加里——上次的業績指引暗示不會有任何反悔。如果我們看一下第四季度，再看看全年業績，應該會有相當大的環比成長，可能在20%左右。

I'm not sure exactly what -- mid-single digits for the year. Means, why would we assume that everything gets delivered as expected? What visibility do we have that the supply chain is going to live up to the commitments they have when that hasn't happened over the last multiple months here? That's number one.

我不太確定具體數字——今年的成長率大概在個位數左右。這意味著，我們憑什麼認為所有東西都能如預期交付？過去幾個月供應鏈都沒能履行承諾，我們又有什麼把握它能兌現承諾呢？這是第一點。

And then number two, I was hoping if you could just dig more into the Switching, Routing part of the business. Obviously, you've added Vyatta, if you could just talk about how much that helped the numbers?

其次，我想請您更詳細地介紹一下交換和路由業務。顯然，你們收購了 Vyatta，能否談談它對業績提升有多大幫助？

And you talked about expanding TAM and use cases. So if you could just, Gary, maybe give us a little color on how you see the trajectory of that business potentially moving over the next few years here?

您剛才提到了擴大潛在市場規模和應用場景。 Gary，能否簡單介紹一下您認為未來幾年這項業務的發展軌跡？

Yes, Tim, I'll take the first part. And what we've always tried to do and what we continue to do today is we're trying to give you -- or give the world a set of numbers that are reasonable and reflect our view of what the world looks like today. We expect that there will be some de-commits.

是的，提姆，我來回答第一部分。我們一直以來努力的目標，也是我們今天仍在努力的目標，就是努力為你們——或者說為全世界——提供一組合理的數據，這些數據能夠反映我們對當今世界局勢的看法。我們預計會有一些承諾被取消。

I will say this that we had de-commits in Q2, which we were largely able to mitigate. And therefore, we came in line with our revenue. Hopefully, we've built in sort of margin for error that we can handle some de-commits. But again, it's our best view of the future. And yes, it's -- if you look at the entire year, we're roughly $250 million or so below what we've said about the year in the past.

我想說的是，第二季我們確實遇到了一些客戶取消承諾的情況，但我們基本上控制住了局面。因此，我們的營收最終符合預期。希望我們預留的容錯空間能夠應付一些客戶取消承諾的情況。不過，這只是我們對未來的最佳預測。而且，如果縱觀全年，我們的實際營收比之前預期的要低約2.5億美元。

Roughly half of that is because of the fact that our optical subcomponent vendors are unable to get parts. And the other half is because of the China lockdowns. It's not precisely 50%, but roughly half and half.

其中大約一半是因為我們的光器件供應商無法取得零件，另一半是因為中國的封鎖措施。並非正好是50%，但大致各佔一半。

And then to your question about breaking down a little bit the dynamics that are going on in the routing and switching business, I'll say this, just to repeat, the business itself was up 27% sequentially quarter-on-quarter and about 70% year-on-year. That's a combination of organic growth and inorganic growth of Vyatta, I'd say roughly split, half and half roughly, between the 2. What's driving that? The primary use cases for that portfolio that we're focused on are all centered around the evolution of the metro and the edge.

至於您提出的關於路由和交換業務動態分析的問題，我再重申一遍，該業務環比增長27%，同比增長約70%。這既包括Vyatta本身的內生成長，也包括外延成長，兩者大致各佔一半。那麼，是什麼因素推動了這項成長呢？我們重點關注的產品組合的主要應用場景都圍繞著城域網路和邊緣運算的發展而展開。

We see growing interest in our wireless transport infrastructure, transport infrastructure as people build out fiber to the tower and look at architectures moving to 5G, Enterprise Connect, as Gary talked about enterprise connecting to the cloud, a new space for us around residential access, getting a lot of interest in the architecture there.

我們看到人們對無線傳輸基礎設施的興趣日益濃厚，因為人們正在建立光纖到塔，並著眼於向 5G 和企業連接（正如 Gary 所談到的，企業連接到雲端）轉型。住宅接入是我們面臨的一個新領域，人們對該領域的架構非常感興趣。

And then backing off from that, bringing all 3 of those use cases back deeper into the network, a common routing and switching aggregation platform. So those are the 4 areas that we're investing in. We think it represents a significant TAM expansion over the years for us. And the early signs, as you can see in the results year-over-year, we're having some really good early success there.

然後，我們退後一步，將這三個用例更深入地融入網絡，建立一個通用的路由和交換聚合平台。這就是我們正在投資的四個領域。我們認為，這代表著我們未來幾年市場規模的顯著成長。正如您從年度業績中看到的那樣，我們已經取得了一些非常好的初步成功。

Your next question comes from the line of David Vogt from UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的David Vogt。

Great. I just want come back to -- my line cut out earlier. I just want to come back to the lack of supply in specifically ICs. I guess it's our understanding that this is a fairly well-known headwind. And I guess I'm just curious, how do you square that commentary that the book-to-bill and backlog are strong. But I would imagine your customers are incredibly sophisticated. They know their shortages of ICs.

好的。我剛才電話斷了，想回到剛才的話題。我想回到積體電路（IC）供應短缺的問題。我想我們都知道這是一個眾所周知的不利因素。我很好奇，您如何解釋訂單出貨比和積壓訂單都很強勁的說法？但我認為您的客戶非常精明，他們很清楚積體電路短缺的問題。

So is there a risk that they've already adjusted their order cadence a little bit earlier. And so that raises some risk that there could be an air pocket later, maybe not this year, but into 2023?

那麼，他們是否有可能已經提前調整了訂單節奏？這是否意味著未來可能會出現供應空檔期，也許不是今年，而是到2023年？

And then I didn't hear any discussion of maybe what a recession might look like next year. If we do move into a more slower growth GDP environment, what that would look like for your -- not only your order growth and your backlog, but what your customers might respond to? And then I have a follow-up on the numbers being pushed out into next year.

然後，我沒聽到任何關於明年經濟衰退可能呈現何種形式的討論。如果我們真的進入GDP成長放緩的環境，這對你們——不僅是訂單成長和積壓訂單——會有什麼影響？你們的客戶可能會有什麼反應？另外，我還有一個後續問題，是關於明年公佈的數據。

David, let me take the recession one first, and I'll then take Scott for the first part of your question. I think we're obviously mindful of the macro sort of economic challenges that it looks like the world is going to go through.

大衛，我先回答關於經濟衰退的問題，然後再回答史考特提出的問題的第一部分。我想我們顯然都意識到了世界即將面臨的宏觀經濟挑戰。

But I would say a couple of things. In the conversations with all of our customer base and its diversity, we are not seeing any let up in their forecast and demands and they're long-term plans. I mean, we've got pretty good visibility into the next 1 to 3 years around the overall dynamics of what they're seeing to do.

但我還有幾點要補充。在與我們所有客戶及其多元化客戶群的溝通中，我們發現他們的預測和需求並沒有絲毫減弱，而且他們的長期計劃仍然穩固。我的意思是，我們對未來1到3年的整體發展趨勢有相當清晰的了解。

And so -- Listen, I think the industry is never immune to a recession, but it's generally performed extremely well during a recession because people need access to the network. And network operators and web-scale are going to continue to invest in their network and getting more traffic out there. So I think we feel very good around the durability of the demand that we're seeing.

所以——聽著，我認為這個行業永遠無法完全免受經濟衰退的影響，但它在經濟衰退期間通常表現得非常好，因為人們需要訪問網路。網路營運商和網路規模企業會繼續投資於他們的網絡，並增加流量。因此，我認為我們對目前所看到的需求的持續性非常有信心。

And in terms of fulfilling what we've got, I think what we're trying to do right now is just really catch up with the backlog and the pent-up demand. I mean, as Jim said, I don't think we're going to see order flows at the rate that we're seeing them right now for this year. But I don't think it's going to fall off a cliff or go through an air pocket either.

至於如何滿足現有訂單，我認為我們目前正在努力做的就是盡快處理積壓訂單和被壓抑的需求。正如吉姆所說，我認為今年訂單量不會再像現在這樣成長了。但我也不認為訂單量會斷崖式下跌或斷崖式下跌。

I think you've seen a change in the dynamic around -- this is really an infrastructure business, and I think people are getting used to ordering out longer term. And I think you will see that -- these lead times will get better over time for sure. But I think you will see great long-term visibility with our customers.

我認為您已經看到了行業動態的變化——這實際上是一個基礎設施行業，人們也逐漸習慣於長期訂購。我相信您會看到，隨著時間的推移，交貨週期肯定會縮短。而且我認為，我們的客戶將會擁有極佳的長期可見性。

And remember that we're advertising and talking to our customers about longer lead times. It's absolutely imperative that they then place longer duration orders on us than has been the case in the past because they do need the gear. And we're not -- as we said, we're not claiming that this rate of order intake is sustainable, but we are -- we do strongly believe that demand for our products and services will continue to grow, and we'll continue to take market share.

請記住，我們正在向客戶宣傳並強調更長的交貨週期。因此，他們必須比以往下單更長的訂單，因為他們確實需要這些設備。正如我們所說，我們並不聲稱目前的訂單量能夠持續成長，但我們堅信，對我們產品和服務的需求將會持續成長，我們也將繼續擴大市場份額。

Great. Maybe just as a quick follow-up, that's helpful. So given lead times, at least appear to be persistently long and not tightening here in the near term, how would you handicap sort of that $250 million revenue shortfall, the likelihood of being able to capture that next year, given where lead times are and where commits are at this point and your purchase order commitments, right?

好的。或許可以再補充一點，這很有幫助。鑑於交貨週期似乎持續較長，而且短期內不會縮短，您如何評估這2.5億美元的收入缺口，以及在目前的交貨週期、訂單承諾和採購訂單承諾的情況下，明年彌補這部分缺口的可能性有多大？

So -- I mean, obviously, it's a difficult visible -- difficult visibility to predict, but you mentioned that you'll obviously think you'll grow fast, 6% to 8%, next year, but is the expectation based on your order book and where your supply chain is today that you'd be able to capture most, if not all, of that next year?

所以——我的意思是，很明顯，這是一個難以預測的可見性問題，但你提到你顯然認為明年會快速增長，達到 6% 到 8%，但根據你目前的訂單量和供應鏈狀況，你明年是否能夠獲得大部分甚至全部的訂單量呢？

Well, I mean, if you just look at the delivery dates, it probably would be in next year's. But all we can say about next year today really is that given where we think our backlog will be at the end of this year, we do expect to have a significantly higher growth rate in 2023 than the 6% to 8% we promised in the past. And I can't give you an exact number because I don't know the number, but I think it's going to be a great year next year.

嗯，我的意思是，如果只看交貨日期，可能要等到明年。但關於明年，我們今天只能說，根據我們對今年年底積壓訂單的預估，我們預計2023年的成長率將遠高於先前承諾的6%到8%。我無法給出確切的數字，因為我也不知道，但我認為明年將會是個碩果累累的一年。

And I would just add that I think sort of our -- and again, we're not talking about '23 right now, but our sort of view is what's going to happen is we've got to get greater predictability from supply chain. And we've got to get the volumes that supply chain have committed for '23. We're not really banking on improved lead times from our suppliers.

我還要補充一點，我認為——當然，我們現在討論的不是2023年，但我們的看法是，接下來我們需要提高供應鏈的可預測性，並且確保供應鏈能夠兌現2023年的承諾供貨量。我們並不指望供應商能夠縮短交貨週期。

Your next question comes from the line of Rod Hall from Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的羅德·霍爾。

Yes. I appreciate it. I just had 5 more questions on supply, and then I wondered if you could pick the (inaudible).

是的，謝謝。我還有5個關於供應方面的問題，然後我想問您能不能幫我選一下（聽不清楚）。

There's 5? We have 5 more answers for you, Rod.

還有5個？羅德，我們還有5個答案要告訴你。

No, I wanted to dig into the verticals a little bit. I'm just looking at the -- the cable number was kind of usually that's seasonally up in April and it's kind of flatlined. I don't know if that's supply oriented. So I just wondered if maybe you could talk a little bit about the demand dynamics there. And then likewise, government is up a lot. I mean, that was a big number in April.

不，我想更深入地了解各個垂直行業的情況。我剛剛在看——有線電視的流量通常在四月會上升，但今年卻基本持平。我不知道這是否與供應有關。所以我想請您談談這方面的需求動態。同樣，政府支出也大幅增加。我的意思是，四月政府支出確實很高。

Just curious if you guys could dig into those vertical demand dynamics a little bit. How much is affected by the supply, how much of this is demand, but just curious what's happening there.

我很好奇你們能否深入探討這些垂直需求動態。其中有多少是受供應影響，又有多少是需求驅動的，我只是好奇這方面究竟發生了什麼事。

Yes, I would say the cable piece is purely supply -- and we're seeing very, very strong demand out of that and it could have been a lot greater if we would have had -- hate to use the s-word again, supply.

是的，我認為電纜部分完全取決於供應——我們看到這方面的需求非常非常強勁，如果我們有——我不想再用那個“供應”這個詞——供應，需求可能會更大。

So I don't think there's anything to that. Government was a couple of larger projects that we delivered in the quarter. You get a lot of ebbs and flows on the government stuff, very project based. But I think the cable space, together with the sort of Tier 1 carriers in North America, very, very robust demand. And again, it's really a function of just our supply.

所以我覺得沒什麼好說的。政府專案是我們本季交付的幾個大型專案。政府計畫總是起起伏伏，非常依賴計畫本身。但我認為有線電視領域，尤其是北美的一級營運商，需求非常強勁。而且，這最終還是取決於我們的供應能力。

And do you think -- I mean the government number, Gary, does that kind of ratchet back down again, April just was a pulse project-oriented revenue? Or is that (inaudible)?

你認為──我是說政府公佈的數據，加里，會不會再回落？四月的收入只是以專案為導向的短期波動，還是說（聽不清楚）？

Yes. I think the forecast for it, depending on the ability to ship, but I think that's likely to go down in Q3, but we are seeing -- if we step back from those ebbs and flows, we are seeing a sort of consistent investment by the government and in their networks for all kinds of reasons, we can probably know. And so we do feel good around that space.

是的。我認為預測結果取決於運輸能力，但我認為第三季可能會下降。不過，如果我們拋開這些波動，就會發現政府出於各種原因，一直持續投資於其網絡建設，我們大概能看出這一點。因此，我們對這個領域持樂觀態度。

And I mean -- I appreciate you highlighting it. We feel good around that for the next few years. There's a lot of network build-out and network modernization that's going on within the various government networks.

我的意思是——我很感謝你強調這一點。我們對未來幾年的情況感到樂觀。各個政府網路內部正在進行大量的網路建設和現代化改造。

Our technology fits their needs very well too.

我們的技術也非常符合他們的需求。

Your next question comes from the line of Tal Liani from Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的塔爾·利亞尼。

The risk that things get canceled next year because customers don't get the product. So if I'm thinking about the cloud or the service providers having their side of the operation ready for products and not running any operations, so they don't get the revenues associated. Why start a project if there are still supply chain issues? So the question is about the sensitivity of demand to supply basically.

明年專案可能因為客戶拿不到產品而取消，這有風險。例如，雲端服務供應商或營運部門已經為產品做好了準備，但卻無法進行任何營運活動，因此無法獲得相應的收入。如果供應鏈仍然有問題，為什麼還要啟動專案？所以，問題本質上在於需求對供給的敏感度。

I don't think that's the driving for sale. I think the driving force here, Tal, is underlying demand for bandwidth. And that has continued to grow through every economic condition we've had for 20 years or 30 years. So I don't think lack of supply is going to constrain their demand. I think it's -- they're going to have the demand as long as their customers are demanding services from them. And as I said, we've seen no reduction in that.

我不認為這是出售的真正原因。塔爾，我認為真正的驅動力在於對頻寬的潛在需求。過去二三十年裡，無論經濟情勢如何，這種需求都持續成長。所以我認為供應短缺不會限制他們的需求。只要客戶需要他們的服務，他們就會一直有需求。正如我所說，我們沒有看到這種需求有所下降。

I think on the web-scale specifically, there's no point building a data center, if you can't connect it. I mean, I get the point but -- I want to get the sort of context to this, right. We are shipping more than we did last year. So we are shipping stuff. So we are providing connectivity to these folks and they're not just getting the full capacity that they wanted so this is not a sort of binary situation.

我認為，尤其是在網路規模上，如果無法連接，那麼建造資料中心就毫無意義。我的意思是，我明白你的意思，但是──我想了解一下具體情況。我們的出貨量比去年增加了。所以我們確實在出貨。我們也在為這些用戶提供連接，但他們並沒有獲得他們想要的全部容量，所以這並不是一個非此即彼的問題。

I mean, we are growing. We just posted a quarter with 14% revenue growth despite all of this stuff. So -- it's not as if we're not getting stuff out there. So we are satiating some of the demand for our customers, but it's not everything that they want. And there aren't -- No one else is doing it better than we are.

我的意思是，我們確實在成長。儘管面臨種種挑戰，我們剛剛公佈的季度營收成長了14%。所以——並不是說我們沒有推出產品。我們確實滿足了客戶的部分需求，但並非他們想要的一切。而且──也沒有其他人比我們做得更好。

So there's not a lot of other alternatives to that. And people wouldn't want to get out of the queue, I'm sure. And by the way, we've got the leading technology and continue to have that. So those are the dynamics that we speak of.

所以除此之外並沒有太多其他選擇。而且我相信，人們也不想離開隊伍。順便說一句，我們擁有領先的技術，並且會繼續保持這一優勢。這就是我們所說的動態因素。

And the fundamental constraints, if you follow the chain, is common to everybody.

如果你順著這個想法往下看，你會發現基本限制條件是所有人共有的。

Great. And Gary, maybe a follow-up question is what -- isn't this environment bringing up more voices within cloud to self-manufacture solutions rather than buy from vendors just because they'll have better control over the supply chain?

太好了。 Gary，或許可以追問一下——在這種環境下，雲端運算領域是否會湧現出更多自主研發解決方案的聲音，而不是僅僅因為供應商能夠更好地控制供應鏈而選擇購買？

Do you think that maybe white box solutions or anything that is more about self-designed self-manufacturing, don't you think that this can actually grow as a response to the current environment?

你認為白盒解決方案或任何更側重於自主設計和自主製造的東西，難道不能作為對當前環境的一種回應而發展壯大嗎？

I think, Tal, from the conversations that I personally have it, I think the opposite is actually true, frankly. I mean, we're able to navigate through it because we're a specialist focused player and we're vertically integrated. So we're actually in a better position to go and do that.

塔爾，就我個人與他人的交流來看，我認為情況恰恰相反。我的意思是，我們之所以能夠應對這種情況，是因為我們是一家專注於特定領域的企業，而且我們實現了垂直整合。所以我們其實更有能力做到這一點。

And I think to Scott's point on the ZR pluggable thing, exactly the same reason is actually pushing that market out because it's more difficult to get the infrastructure to support that. So the DIY stuff is actually more difficult than it was before.

我認為史考特提到的ZR可插拔技術，正是因為基礎建設更加困難，才會導致市場萎縮。所以，DIY改裝其實比以前更難了。

Operator, we'll take one last question.

操作員，我們最後一個問題。

Your final question comes from the line of Simon Leopold from Raymond James.

你的最後一個問題出自雷蒙德詹姆斯 (Raymond James) 的西蒙利奧波德 (Simon Leopold) 的詩句。

Kind of surprised nobody has asked this actually. You talked about the supply chain worsening, and I get that, but it does seem to somewhat contradict some of the commentary we heard from some of your optical component suppliers.

說實話，我有點驚訝居然沒人問過這個問題。你提到供應鏈惡化，我明白這一點，但這似乎與我們從你們一些光學元件供應商那裡聽到的說法有些矛盾。

Basically, they guided to improving telecom shipments in their respective June ending quarters. And I just want to make sure I understand whether or not you're indicating that that's not really going to be the case, or if this is more about timing and why you don't sound more constructive if there's something else informing the challenges in optical components. And then just a quick follow-up, if I might. It's just an update on your own shipments of ZR pluggable.

基本上，他們都表示將在各自截至六月的季度中改善電信設備的出貨量。我想確認一下，您是暗示實際情況並非如此，還是說這更多是時間上的問題？如果光元件領域還有其他挑戰，為什麼您的表現不夠正面？最後，如果可以的話，我再問一個後續問題。我想了解一下貴公司ZR可插拔裝置的出貨情況。

Yes, Simon, to the first one, simple summary is, yes, it's timing. So the history is of when they see improvement when we actually get it through our supply chain and out to our end customers, it is timing. They did talk, though, about the gap or some of them talked about specifically to the gap that they had in their June quarter.

是的，西蒙，關於第一個問題，簡單來說，是的，關鍵在於時機。所以，從歷史數據來看，只有當我們的產品真正透過供應鏈送到最終客戶手中時，他們才能看到業績的改善，這完全取決於時機。不過，他們也談到了業績差距，或者說，他們中的一些人專門談到了六月季度業績的差距。

So if you map that to our timing, it has an impact on our Q3 and to some degree in our Q4 as well.

所以，如果把這和我們的時間安排對應起來，它會對我們的第三季產生影響，並且在某種程度上也會對我們的第四季產生影響。

I'll just remind you though that we also said there was 2 dynamics. One is the optical sub components that you pointed out. The other one was integrated circuits that largely was due to China. Again there, it's second order effects in the supply chain that take a while to work their way through from China being opened up again to us being able to turn that into finished goods through our customers. So again, 100% timing based.

不過我還是要提醒您，我們之前也說過有兩種動態因素。一種是您提到的光學子組件。另一種是積體電路，這主要取決於中國。同樣，這其中也存在供應鏈中的二階效應，需要一段時間才能顯現出來，從中國重新開放到我們能夠透過客戶將這些組件轉化為成品。所以，這完全取決於時機。

ZR?

ZR？

ZR. So on the ZR side, Simon, I don't think our perspective has changed at all. We have shipped ZR into a number of customers around the globe, working through their evaluation cycles. As you're probably aware, the majority of the volume over the next season or so is going to be dominated by a couple of players.

ZR。西蒙，就ZR而言，我認為我們的觀點完全沒有改變。我們已經向全球多家客戶交付了ZR產品，並正在協助他們完成評估週期。正如你可能已經了解到的，未來一個季度左右的大部分市場份額將由少數幾家廠商佔據。

We are fully engaged in those players, and we expect to be successful there in those because we firmly believe we've got the plug in the market. But for us and for the industry, it's largely going to be a 2023 event from any materiality.

我們已與這些玩家全面合作，並期望在這些市場取得成功，因為我們堅信我們已經掌握了市場脈動。但對我們以及整個產業而言，任何實質的進展都將主要取決於2023年的情況。

Simon thank you for the question, I appreciate it. And thank you, everyone, for taking the time today to connect with us. We look forward to connecting with everyone here at the balance of today and to the next several days. Thanks very much.

西蒙，謝謝你的提問，我很感激。也感謝各位今天抽空與我們交流。我們期待在今天剩餘的時間以及接下來的幾天繼續與大家保持聯繫。非常感謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以斷開連線了。