Ciena Corp (CIEN) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Rob, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Ciena Fiscal Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call.

早上好。我的名字是 Rob，今天我將成為您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加 Ciena 2022 財年第二季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Gregg Lampf, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

Gregg Lampf，投資者關係副總裁，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, Rob. Good morning, and welcome to Ciena's 2022 Fiscal Second Quarter Results Conference Call. On the call today is Gary Smith, President and CEO; and Jim Moylan, CFO. Scott McFeely, our Senior Vice President of Global Products and Services, is also with us for Q&A.

謝謝你，羅布。早上好，歡迎參加 Ciena 的 2022 財年第二季度業績電話會議。今天的電話會議是總裁兼首席執行官 Gary Smith；和首席財務官 Jim Moylan。我們的全球產品和服務高級副總裁 Scott McFeely 也與我們一起進行問答。

In addition to this call and the press release, we have posted to the Investors section of our website an accompanying investor presentation that reflects this discussion as well as certain highlighted items from the quarter.

除了本次電話會議和新聞稿外，我們還在我們網站的“投資者”部分發布了一份隨附的投資者演示文稿，該演示文稿反映了此次討論以及本季度的某些重點項目。

Our comments today speak to our recent Q2 performance, our view on the current demand environment and supply chain conditions as well as discussion of our financial outlook.

我們今天的評論涉及我們最近的第二季度業績、我們對當前需求環境和供應鏈狀況的看法以及對我們財務前景的討論。

Today's discussion includes certain adjusted or non-GAAP measures of Ciena's results of operations. A detailed reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results is included in today's press release. Before turning the call over to Gary, I'll remind you that during this call, we'll be making certain forward-looking statements.

今天的討論包括對 Ciena 經營業績的某些調整或非公認會計原則的衡量。這些非公認會計原則措施與我們的公認會計原則結果的詳細核對包含在今天的新聞稿中。在將電話轉給 Gary 之前，我會提醒您，在這次電話會議期間，我們將做出某些前瞻性陳述。

Such statements, including our quarterly and annual guidance, discussion on market opportunities and commentary about the impact of COVID-19 and supply chain constraints on our business and results, are based on current expectations, forecasts and assumptions regarding the company and its markets, which include risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from statements discussed today.

這些聲明，包括我們的季度和年度指導、關於市場機會的討論以及關於 COVID-19 和供應鏈限制對我們的業務和結果的影響的評論，是基於對公司及其市場的當前預期、預測和假設，其中包括可能導致實際結果與今天討論的陳述大不相同的風險和不確定性。

These statements should be viewed in the context of the risk factors detailed in our most recent 10-K filing and our upcoming 10-Q filing, which is required to be filed with the SEC by June 8, and we expect to file by that date.

這些陳述應結合我們最近的 10-K 文件和即將提交的 10-Q 文件中詳述的風險因素來看待，這些文件要求在 6 月 8 日之前向 SEC 提交，我們預計在該日期之前提交.

Ciena assumes no obligation to update the information discussed in this conference call, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. As always, we will allow for as much Q&A as possible today. So we do ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up please. With that, I'll turn it over to Gary.

Ciena 不承擔更新本次電話會議中討論的信息的義務，無論是由於新信息、未來事件或其他原因。與往常一樣，我們今天將允許盡可能多的問答。因此，我們確實要求您將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續行動上。有了這個，我會把它交給加里。

Thanks, Gregg, and good morning, everyone. This morning, we reported, largely in line, financial results. When considering, it was really a strong achievement against the backdrop of an increasingly challenging supply environment.

謝謝，格雷格，大家早上好。今天早上，我們大致報告了財務業績。考慮到這一點，在供應環境日益嚴峻的背景下，這確實是一項了不起的成就。

This included revenue of $949 million, reflecting year-over-year growth of 14% as we continue to take share and grow faster than the overall market. Building off a historic first quarter order flows, our order flow in the second quarter remained very strong, with a book-to-bill ratio well in excess of [1.5].

這包括 9.49 億美元的收入，反映了 14% 的同比增長，因為我們繼續佔據市場份額並且增長速度快於整個市場。在歷史性的第一季度訂單流的基礎上，我們在第二季度的訂單流仍然非常強勁，訂單出貨比遠超 [1.5]。

As a result, we continue to grow our backlog. In fact, with continued strength in orders in recent periods, we have seen significant expansion in our backlog since the end of fiscal 2021 from about $2.2 billion to more than $4 billion, exiting Q2.

因此，我們繼續增加我們的積壓工作。事實上，隨著近期訂單的持續強勁，自 2021 財年末以來，我們的積壓訂單顯著增加，從大約 22 億美元增加到超過 40 億美元，並在第二季度結束。

We are clearly seeing a number of positive demand trends at a secular level that we believe are very durable over the long term. And with our leading innovation, scale, customer relationships and investment capacity, we will continue to capture market share.

從長期來看，我們清楚地看到了一些積極的需求趨勢，我們認為這些趨勢在長期內是非常持久的。憑藉我們領先的創新、規模、客戶關係和投資能力，我們將繼續佔領市場份額。

Ironically, this significant growth in demand for our technology has exacerbated the impact of ongoing global supply chain challenges on our business. And in fact, Q2 really presented the most volatile set of supply chain conditions to date, which, in fact, worsened as we moved through the quarter.

具有諷刺意味的是，對我們技術需求的顯著增長加劇了持續的全球供應鏈挑戰對我們業務的影響。事實上，第二季度確實呈現了迄今為止最不穩定的一組供應鏈狀況，事實上，隨著我們整個季度的發展，這種狀況變得更糟了。

To put it simply, demand continues to significantly exceed supply, and availability of supply is the most impactful factor in our performance and rate of revenue growth at this time. Within this context, we continue to execute well in Q2 and navigate these challenges through supply chain mitigation strategies.

簡而言之，需求繼續顯著超過供應，而供應的可用性是目前對我們的業績和收入增長率影響最大的因素。在此背景下，我們在第二季度繼續表現良好，並通過供應鏈緩解策略應對這些挑戰。

As a result, we delivered more product in Q2 than we did in the same quarter last year, including some notable highlights that illustrate our innovation leadership and the diversified business that we've built.

因此，我們在第二季度交付的產品比去年同期更多，其中包括一些顯著的亮點，這些亮點說明了我們的創新領導地位和我們建立的多元化業務。

To start with, non-telco revenue in Q2 was approximately 44% or up 15% year-over-year. This included direct web-scale revenue of 22%, an increase of 7% year-over-year, primarily for our Waveserver platform.

首先，第二季度的非電信收入約為 44% 或同比增長 15%。這包括 22% 的直接網絡規模收入，同比增長 7%，主要用於我們的 Waveserver 平台。

Our top 10 customers in the quarter included 4 web-scalers, and we made our first product shipments to a new large web-scale customer in the U.S. We now have the top 6 global web-scale companies as customers of WaveLogic 5 Extreme in different stages and maturity of deployment.

本季度我們的前 10 名客戶包括 4 家網絡擴展器，我們向美國新的大型網絡規模客戶交付了第一批產品。我們現在擁有全球前 6 家網絡規模公司作為 WaveLogic 5 Extreme 的客戶，在不同地區部署的階段和成熟度。

Overall, in the quarter, we added 16 new customers for WaveLogic 5 E, bringing our total to 172. Q2 was a record quarter for shipments of WaveLogic 5 E, up 50% year-over-year and more than double that of last quarter. To date, we've shipped more than 35,000 WaveLogic 5 E modems to customers globally.

總體而言，在本季度，我們為 WaveLogic 5 E 增加了 16 個新客戶，使我們的總數達到 172 個。第二季度是 WaveLogic 5 E 出貨量創紀錄的季度，同比增長 50%，是上一季度的兩倍多.迄今為止，我們已向全球客戶交付了超過 35,000 台 WaveLogic 5 E 調製解調器。

In Routing and Switching, our business is growing, driven by Tier 1 service providers as well as Tier 2, 3 customers for our expanded routing and PON capabilities. Quarterly revenue there was up 27% sequentially and more than 70% year-over-year, including a strong contribution from the recently added Vyatta platform.

在路由和交換方面，我們的業務正在增長，這得益於一級服務提供商以及二級、三級客戶對我們擴展的路由和 PON 能力的推動。季度收入環比增長 27%，同比增長超過 70%，其中包括最近添加的 Vyatta 平台的強勁貢獻。

And finally, Platform Software and Services revenue was up 22% from this time last year. Looking at the overall demand environment. The shift in business and consumer behavior have accelerated positive trends for our business, including cloud adoption, a greater focus on the network edge, which is really greater capacity closer to the customer, and the need, of course, for increased automation.

最後，平台軟件和服務收入比去年同期增長了 22%。縱觀整體需求環境。業務和消費者行為的轉變加速了我們業務的積極趨勢，包括雲採用、更加關注網絡邊緣，這實際上是更接近客戶的更大容量，當然還有對提高自動化的需求。

These are strong and durable long-term secular drivers for the industry, creating an incredible demand environment for our business, going forward.

這些是該行業強大而持久的長期驅動力，為我們的業務創造了令人難以置信的需求環境，並繼續向前發展。

In Optical, specifically, we are experiencing significant growth in our large installed base of customers around the globe, fueled by exploding bandwidth requirements.

特別是在光學領域，由於帶寬需求的爆炸式增長，我們在全球擁有龐大的客戶群正在經歷顯著增長。

Adding to this positive dynamic is continued incremental opportunity to displace Huawei in many countries, particularly in Europe, as well as increasing public investments in network infrastructure.

除了這種積極的動力之外，在許多國家（尤其是在歐洲）取代華為的持續增量機會，以及增加對網絡基礎設施的公共投資。

In Routing and Switching, we continue to secure new design wins around the world, primarily associated with growth in wireless and accelerated cloud adoption, again, at the edge of the network.

在路由和交換方面，我們繼續在全球範圍內贏得新的設計勝利，這主要與無線增長和加速雲採用有關，同樣，在網絡邊緣。

And we continue to expand our addressable market in this space as we invest in new technologies and solutions to address additional use cases such as residential broadband.

隨著我們投資新技術和解決方案以解決住宅寬帶等其他用例，我們將繼續擴大我們在這一領域的潛在市場。

In Blue Planet, demand continues for automation that enables differentiated digital services for a fully-connected experience. 5G, we believe, will continue to fuel the need for OSS modernization as new innovative services require end-to-end service life cycle automation.

在 Blue Planet 中，對自動化的需求持續存在，可以實現差異化的數字服務以提供完全連接的體驗。我們相信，5G 將繼續推動對 OSS 現代化的需求，因為新的創新服務需要端到端的服務生命週期自動化。

These demand dynamics are present in our order book today. And we expect continued demand to address these network requirements, will result in a growing backlog as we move through the second half of the year.

這些需求動態出現在我們今天的訂單中。我們預計，滿足這些網絡要求的持續需求將導致我們在下半年進行的積壓工作不斷增加。

This level of demand far outpaces, frankly, our expectations for orders in the year, driving a backlog that reflects strong underlying secular demand. As a result, we have tremendous confidence in our forward growth opportunities.

坦率地說，這一需求水平遠遠超過了我們對今年訂單的預期，推動了反映強勁潛在長期需求的積壓。因此，我們對未來的增長機會充滿信心。

Now with that said, I want to be extremely clear. In this environment, our revenue is not a function of demand or even production capacity for that matter. It is purely a matter of component supply availability.

話雖如此，我想非常清楚。在這種環境下，我們的收入不是需求的函數，甚至不是生產能力的函數。這純粹是組件供應可用性的問題。

And that, of course, brings me to supply chain. And as we all know, we remain in a very constrained supply environment, particularly with respect to semiconductors and integrated circuits.

當然，這讓我想到了供應鏈。眾所周知，我們仍處於供應非常有限的環境中，尤其是在半導體和集成電路方面。

And I think it's important to remember that these particular parts are relevant to multiple industries, from telecom to consumer electronics, to automotive and others, which only serves to exacerbate this global supply challenge.

我認為重要的是要記住，這些特定部件與多個行業相關，從電信到消費電子產品，再到汽車和其他行業，這只會加劇這一全球供應挑戰。

And of course, we continue to employ a range of supply mitigation strategies that we've previously discussed, including placement of large advanced purchase commitments for critical components in short supply with extended lead times and qualifying engineering alternatives to expand our sources of supply.

當然，我們將繼續採用我們之前討論過的一系列供應緩解策略，包括對供應短缺的關鍵組件做出大量提前採購承諾，並延長交貨時間，並通過合格的工程替代方案來擴大我們的供應來源。

However, as I mentioned earlier, supply chain conditions appreciably worsened as we moved through Q2. Specifically, we saw a significant increase in both the volume and magnitude of supplier decommits that we weren't able to fully mitigate in two areas that are critical to our business.

然而，正如我之前提到的，隨著我們進入第二季度，供應鏈狀況明顯惡化。具體來說，我們看到供應商退役的數量和規模都顯著增加，我們無法在對我們業務至關重要的兩個領域完全緩解這些問題。

Firstly, a number of key optical subcomponent suppliers, as they themselves have publicly noted, have been unable to fulfill their supply commitments due to constrained access to semiconductors.

首先，正如他們自己公開指出的那樣，許多主要的光學子元件供應商由於半導體供應受限，無法履行其供應承諾。

Second, we've seen additional supply decommits for a number of integrated circuit suppliers, centered really on low-value commoditized parts that are essential to the operation of our finished products.

其次，我們已經看到許多集成電路供應商的供應減少，主要集中在對我們的成品運營至關重要的低價值商品化零件上。

This second dynamic has been largely related to the COVID lockdowns in China. And while we have, by design, a very low overall supply chain exposure to China, our revenue is being affected, given that China is effectively the primary source of many of these low-value commoditized parts that are essential to the production of IC and semis.

第二種動態很大程度上與中國的 COVID 封鎖有關。雖然我們在設計上對中國的整體供應鏈敞口非常低，但我們的收入受到影響，因為中國實際上是許多對 IC 生產至關重要的低價值商品化零件的主要來源，半決賽

On both of these issues, there simply aren't enough parts to go around and satisfy demand across a number of industries and market segments. Just to reiterate, these dynamics do not represent a Ciena-specific challenge, rather this is an industry-wide global challenge.

在這兩個問題上，根本沒有足夠的零件來滿足許多行業和細分市場的需求。重申一下，這些動態並不代表 Ciena 特有的挑戰，而是整個行業的全球挑戰。

And despite the willingness of network operators to spend, we expect that the length and severity of current supply conditions will impact both overall industry growth rates and, of course, our own revenue growth.

儘管網絡運營商願意花錢，但我們預計當前供應狀況的持續時間和嚴重程度將影響整個行業的增長率，當然還有我們自己的收入增長。

That said, when our industry begins to see improvement in supply dynamics, our scale, investments, customer relationships and strong balance sheet puts us in the best possible position to service industry demand. With that, I'll turn over to Jim for more detail on Q2 and to discuss our guidance. Jim?

也就是說，當我們的行業開始看到供應動態改善時，我們的規模、投資、客戶關係和強大的資產負債表使我們處於服務行業需求的最佳位置。有了這個，我將向 Jim 提出關於 Q2 的更多詳細信息並討論我們的指導。吉姆?

Thank you, Gary. Good morning, everyone. We delivered Q2 revenue of $949 million, in line with our guidance. Adjusted gross margin in the quarter was 43%, also in line with our guidance and consistent with our expectation for a revenue mix that includes a larger proportion of lower-margin common equipment.

謝謝你，加里。大家，早安。我們的第二季度收入為 9.49 億美元，符合我們的指導。本季度調整後的毛利率為 43%，這也符合我們的指引，也符合我們對收入組合的預期，其中包括更大比例的低利潤率通用設備。

It also reflects significantly higher component costs and also higher logistics expense. We expect these dynamics to continue as we move through the remainder of this year. Adjusted operating expense in Q2 was $301 million.

它還反映了顯著更高的組件成本和更高的物流費用。我們預計，隨著我們在今年餘下時間的推移，這些動態將繼續下去。第二季度調整後的運營費用為 3.01 億美元。

It is important to point out that while our results were in line with guidance, this achievement was a significant task in the current environment and required outstanding execution across a number of functions inside Ciena.

需要指出的是，雖然我們的結果與指導一致，但這一成就在當前環境下是一項重大任務，需要在 Ciena 內部的多個職能部門中出色地執行。

Moving to profitability measures. We delivered adjusted operating margin of 11.3%, adjusted net income of $76 million and adjusted EPS of $0.50. In addition to Q2, cash from operations was $106 million.

轉向盈利能力指標。我們實現了 11.3% 的調整後營業利潤率、7600 萬美元的調整後淨利潤和 0.50 美元的調整後每股收益。除第二季度外，運營現金為 1.06 億美元。

Free cash flow was $86 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $129 million. We ended the quarter with approximately $1.6 billion in cash and investments.

自由現金流為 8600 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.29 億美元。我們在本季度結束時擁有約 16 億美元的現金和投資。

Also in Q2, we repurchased approximately 1.5 million shares for $87 million and received 900,000 shares of common stock, pursuant to the final settlement of the accelerated share repurchase program, which we implemented earlier in the year.

同樣在第二季度，根據我們在今年早些時候實施的加速股票回購計劃的最終結算，我們以 8700 萬美元回購了大約 150 萬股普通股並獲得了 900,000 股普通股。

We continue to expect to repurchase approximately $250 million of shares in fiscal 2022 in addition to ASR.

除了 ASR，我們繼續預計在 2022 財年回購約 2.5 億美元的股票。

China [lockdowns]. Overall, industry supply chain conditions make providing guidance extremely challenging at this time. Conditions were more difficult in Q2 than in previous quarters, mainly because of a higher number of decommits from our supply base, caused both by semiconductor availability and China lockdowns.

中國[封鎖]。總體而言，行業供應鏈狀況使得此時提供指導極具挑戰性。第二季度的情況比前幾個季度更加困難，主要是由於半導體供應和中國封鎖導致我們供應基地的停產數量增加。

Demand drivers are very robust. But as Gary said, in this environment, our revenue is not a function of demand. It is purely a matter of component supply availability.

需求驅動力非常強勁。但正如加里所說，在這種環境下，我們的收入不是需求的函數。這純粹是組件供應可用性的問題。

Also, with the current state of the supply chain and the resulting greater uncertainty, there is a wider range of potential outcomes in the coming quarters than has been the case.

此外，由於供應鏈的當前狀態以及由此產生的更大不確定性，未來幾個季度的潛在結果範圍比以往更大。

As always, though, we are providing our best perspective today about our expected performance in Q3 and for the fiscal year. Importantly, this view assumes that our component suppliers deliver on their most recent commitments and that we don't encounter any substantial new decommits that we cannot successfully mitigate.

不過，與往常一樣，我們今天將就第三季度和本財年的預期表現提供最佳視角。重要的是，這種觀點假設我們的組件供應商兌現了他們最近的承諾，並且我們沒有遇到任何我們無法成功緩解的重大新解除承諾。

With that, in Q3, we expect to deliver revenue in a range of $870 million to $930 million. This lower range for expected revenue is entirely driven by conditions in our supply chain.

有了這個，我們預計第三季度的收入將在 8.7 億美元至 9.3 億美元之間。這個較低的預期收入範圍完全是由我們供應鏈中的條件驅動的。

We expect gross margin for Q3 in the low 40s percentage range, which reflects the continuation of the same dynamics that we saw in the second quarter, a higher percentage of revenue from line systems and common equipment, again, coupled with greater-than-expected component costs and higher logistics expense.

我們預計第三季度的毛利率在 40 年代的低百分比範圍內，這反映了我們在第二季度看到的相同動態的延續，線路系統和通用設備的收入百分比再次提高，以及高於預期組件成本和更高的物流費用。

And finally, we expect OpEx of $305 million to $310 million. With respect to the full fiscal year, we are adjusting our expectations for exactly the same reasons and with the same assumptions. We now expect to deliver annual revenue growth in fiscal 2022 in the mid-single digits.

最後，我們預計運營支出為 3.05 億美元至 3.1 億美元。對於整個財政年度，我們出於完全相同的原因和相同的假設調整我們的預期。我們現在預計 2022 財年的年收入增長將達到中個位數。

Gross margin for the fiscal year, we expect to be in the low 40s percentages. Our operating expense will be roughly consistent with an average of $300 million per quarter for the full year, perhaps a little bit higher in Q4, mostly due to compensation expense.

本財年的毛利率，我們預計將在 40% 的低位。我們的運營費用將與全年平均每季度 3 億美元大致一致，第四季度可能會更高，主要是由於補償費用。

And finally, operating margin in the low double digits. Generally speaking, the growing consensus view in the industry is that supply chain conditions will take at least several more quarters to return to a normalized state.

最後，營業利潤率處於兩位數的低位。總體而言，業內越來越多的共識是，供應鏈狀況至少還需要幾個季度才能恢復到正常狀態。

Given the persistence and unpredictability of these challenges to date, we believe that is a reasonable assumption at this time. But it is entirely possible that this timeline will continue to change. It is an incredibly dynamic situation.

鑑於迄今為止這些挑戰的持續性和不可預測性，我們認為目前這是一個合理的假設。但這個時間表完全有可能繼續改變。這是一個令人難以置信的動態情況。

Furthermore, it is critical to remember that there will not be a light-switch moment, that is a single moment in time when conditions improve and the flow of supply returns to normalized levels. Any recovery, when it begins, will be gradual and will occur over time.

此外，重要的是要記住，不會有燈開關時刻，即情況改善和供應流量恢復到正常水平的單一時刻。任何恢復，當它開始時，將是漸進的，並且會隨著時間的推移而發生。

In summary, we're mindful of variability of outcomes the supply challenges present in the near term, but we are prepared to benefit when a meaningful and sustained recovery in supply dynamics occurs.

總而言之，我們注意到短期內出現的供應挑戰結果的可變性，但我們準備在供應動態出現有意義且持續的複蘇時受益。

Importantly, we are extremely positive about the durability of the underlying secular drivers, which continue to drive a significant and growing backlog that reflects not only a strong demand environment but also our continued market leadership.

重要的是，我們對潛在長期驅動因素的持久性極為樂觀，這些驅動因素繼續推動大量且不斷增長的積壓訂單，這不僅反映了強勁的需求環境，也反映了我們持續的市場領導地位。

Combined with our relationships with customers and suppliers and the mitigation steps we are taking to address current challenges, we are very well positioned for long-term growth and success. With that, we'll now take questions from the sell-side analysts. Rob?

結合我們與客戶和供應商的關係以及我們為應對當前挑戰而採取的緩解措施，我們為長期增長和成功做好了充分準備。有了這個，我們現在將回答賣方分析師的問題。搶？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Your first question comes from the line of Paul Silverstein from Cowen.

您的第一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Paul Silverstein。

Jim and Gary, can you discuss what linearity looked like in the quarter? And perhaps even more importantly, what has been -- what do bookings look like over the past 4 weeks leading up to today?

吉姆和加里，你們能討論一下本季度的線性度嗎？也許更重要的是，過去 4 周到今天的預訂情況如何？

And then I've got -- and Jim, related to that, what would guidance be for July and for the October fiscal year? But for the supply chain impact, how much revenue was impacted? What was the gross margin impact?

然後我有 - 吉姆，與此相關，七月和十月財政年度的指導是什麼？但是對於供應鏈的影響，有多少收入受到影響？毛利率的影響是什麼？

Yes. With respect to linearity, as has always been the case, we are back-end loaded. Typically, it's because of the timing of our orders. But in this case, it has to do with the delivery of components to our contract manufacturer. So we've had a very nonlinear flow of orders.

是的。關於線性，一如既往，我們是後端加載的。通常，這是因為我們的訂單時間。但在這種情況下，它與向我們的合同製造商交付組件有關。所以我們有一個非常非線性的訂單流。

They've been strong, really, the entire year and not necessarily in the last month of the quarter. Even though it's strong in the last month of the quarter, it's not as back-end loaded on the order side. But on the supply side, it has been back-end loaded and, therefore, our revenue has been back-end loaded.

他們一直很強勁，真的，整個一年，不一定是在本季度的最後一個月。儘管在本季度的最後一個月表現強勁，但在訂單方面並沒有像後端那樣加載。但在供應方面，它已被後端加載，因此，我們的收入已被後端加載。

So Paul, the other thing I would add in terms of the linearity of orders, as Jim said, it's been pretty consistent. Q2 was over [1.5] ratio to revenue. And we expect to continue to build backlog for the second half of the year as well.

所以保羅，我要補充的另一件事是訂單的線性，正如吉姆所說，它非常一致。 Q2 與收入的比率超過 [1.5]。我們預計下半年也將繼續積壓。

So we are seeing very consistent demand, which is really driven by just the increase in traffic and the adoption of cloud at both the consumer and enterprise level on a global basis.

因此，我們看到了非常一致的需求，這實際上是由流量的增加以及全球消費者和企業層面對雲的採用所推動的。

So initially, there was a little bit of catch-up and then there's some forward ordering, but it's not that much. We've only got -- in '23, requested, we've only got a few hundred million. Most folks would take everything we've got right now. So that's why we talk to this very sustainable order flow demand.

所以最初，有一點追趕，然後有一些前向排序，但並沒有那麼多。我們只有——在 23 年，請求，我們只有幾億。大多數人會拿走我們現在擁有的一切。所以這就是我們談論這種非常可持續的訂單流需求的原因。

And to your specific question about what our guidance would have been, it's a number that is almost beyond the pale, Paul, because we've got a backlog of over $4 billion, as Gary said. Only a few hundred million of that is true 2023 demand.

對於你關於我們的指導的具體問題，保羅，這個數字幾乎超出了蒼白，因為正如加里所說，我們有超過 40 億美元的積壓。其中只有幾億是真正的 2023 年需求。

All the rest of it is asked for by the customers in this year. So our revenue for this year would have been extremely high if we were able to get the components to manufacture it.

其餘的都是今年客戶要求的。因此，如果我們能夠獲得製造它的組件，我們今年的收入將非常高。

Now, I don't think people should take that as the -- if you just run the numbers there and figure out what our revenue could be this year, you shouldn't take that as our run rate.

現在，我認為人們不應該把它當作——如果你只是計算那裡的數字併計算出我們今年的收入可能是多少，你不應該把它當作我們的運行率。

This is a catch-up. It's the fact that they're all trying to get ahead of everybody else with their orders, but it does speak to the strength of demand and what we think is very durable demand.

這是一個追趕。事實上，他們都試圖在訂單方面領先於其他所有人，但這確實說明了需求的強度以及我們認為非常持久的需求。

Jim, just to be clear, you all -- I don't think you provided the backlog number last quarter. It was $2.17 billion coming out of October. What was the backlog increase in April?

吉姆，為了清楚起見，你們所有人——我認為你們沒有提供上個季度的積壓數量。 10 月份的數據為 21.7 億美元。 4 月份的積壓訂單增加了多少？

And just to be perfectly clear with respect to my question about linearity and order strength, the forward indicators you're looking at, order growth and all the other leading indicators that speak to future demand, there's been no attenuation of recent (inaudible).

為了完全清楚我關於線性和訂單強度的問題、您正在查看的遠期指標、訂單增長和所有其他與未來需求相關的領先指標，近期（聽不清）沒有衰減。

I mean, obviously, this goes to the concern -- the widespread concern about a macro slowdown translating into slower economic activity for virtually everybody, yourself included. You're arguing that's not what's going on, this is purely supply-driven.

我的意思是，很明顯，這引起了人們的擔憂——對於幾乎每個人（包括你自己）的宏觀經濟放緩轉化為經濟活動放緩的普遍擔憂。你認為這不是正在發生的事情，這純粹是供應驅動的。

But again, my question here is, looking at demand trends, looking at all the different forward indicators, you're not seeing any attenuation in [strength]?

但同樣，我的問題是，看看需求趨勢，看看所有不同的遠期指標，你沒有看到 [強度] 有任何衰減嗎？

No, we're not, Paul. I mean -- and the rough rounded numbers, we came out of the year at over $2 billion. We came out of last quarter with over $3 billion. We came out of this quarter with over $4 billion.

不，我們不是，保羅。我的意思是——以及粗略的四捨五入數字，我們今年的收入超過了 20 億美元。我們上個季度的收入超過 30 億美元。本季度我們的收入超過 40 億美元。

And everything that we're seeing in forecast with our customers, tells us that might not continue at that pace. But we're going to continue to grow backlog with the order flow.

我們在與客戶的預測中看到的一切都告訴我們，這種情況可能不會以這種速度繼續下去。但隨著訂單流，我們將繼續增加積壓。

And the other thing I'd say about macroeconomics, whilst no industry is immune from that, I do think that cloud adoption has proven to be incredibly resilient in the ups and downs of various economic moves.

關於宏觀經濟學，我要說的另一件事是，雖然沒有哪個行業能倖免於難，但我確實認為，雲採用已被證明在各種經濟波動的起伏中具有令人難以置信的彈性。

And I think it's sort of fundamental to how the world works now around getting greater bandwidth closer to the customer, and that's -- we're not seeing any signs of that letting up at all. In fact, the opposite.

而且我認為這對於現在世界如何圍繞讓更大的帶寬更接近客戶而運作具有某種基礎，那就是 - 我們根本沒有看到任何放鬆的跡象。事實上，恰恰相反。

If you look at web-scale, they're planning to build more and more data centers, again, closer to the customers around the world. And we are obviously in partnership with them about their long-term planning. We're not seeing any slowdown on that, whatsoever.

如果你看一下網絡規模，他們正計劃建立越來越多的數據中心，再次靠近世界各地的客戶。我們顯然與他們合作制定了他們的長期計劃。無論如何，我們沒有看到任何放緩。

Just my follow-up, just to be clear, you can't see in the numbers [particularly] the supply chain situation. But the strength you're referencing, that was broad-based geographically across product markets and across customers?

只是我的跟進，只是為了清楚起見，你無法從數字中看到[特別是]供應鏈情況。但是您所引用的優勢是跨產品市場和跨客戶的廣泛地域性優勢？

Yes. Yes. Absolutely. Verticals, regions, products, particular strength in our Routing and Switching business, which, as you know, that's a focus for us.

是的。是的。絕對地。垂直、地區、產品，我們路由和交換業務的特殊優勢，如您所知，這是我們關注的重點。

Your next question comes from the line of Amit Daryanani from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Amit Daryanani。

I have two as well. I guess, the first one, maybe simply, if I think about it, the backlog has ramped up from $2.2 billion to $4 billion in the last [4] quarters over the last year.

我也有兩個。我想，第一個，也許很簡單，如果我想一想，在去年的最後 [4] 個季度中，積壓的訂單已從 22 億美元增加到 40 億美元。

How should we think about -- how much of this is due to just demand is stronger and it's a natural buildup of backlog versus customers that are placing longer-duration orders maybe because they're worried they won't get supply?

我們應該如何思考——這在很大程度上是由於需求更強勁，這是自然積壓的積壓，而不是那些下長期訂單的客戶，可能是因為他們擔心得不到供應？

So I don't think this is the way to think about -- yes, the backlog has gone up. How much of that is due to duration going extended by your customers versus all the other supply chain issues you've talked about?

所以我認為這不是思考的方式——是的，積壓工作已經增加。其中有多少是由於您的客戶延長了持續時間而不是您談到的所有其他供應鏈問題？

Yes. No, that's a good question, Amit. Let me give you sort of a data point here that I think will help with that. I think you've got a confluence of sort of three things going on. You've got a little bit of catch-up.

是的。不，這是個好問題，阿米特。讓我在這裡給你一些我認為會有所幫助的數據點。我認為你已經融合了三件事。你有一點追趕。

That certainly was the case sort of probably 12 months ago, where carriers were very conservative during COVID, both from an operational perspective and from a fiscal perspective, they were playing a bit of catch-up. That's largely flowed out.

大概 12 個月前的情況肯定是這樣，當時運營商在 COVID 期間非常保守，無論是從運營角度還是從財務角度來看，他們都在追趕。大部分都流出了。

Then we are seeing a little bit of certain customers looking at security of supply and are giving us more visibility, longer into the cycle. That's absolutely happening. But an interesting data point around -- is it real traffic that they're trying to buy for and address or is it just security of supply chain?

然後我們看到一些特定的客戶正在關注供應安全性，並為我們提供了更多的可見性，更長的周期。這絕對正在發生。但有一個有趣的數據點——他們試圖購買和解決的真實流量，還是只是供應鏈的安全性？

Of the $4 billion plus in hardware, we've only got a few hundred million that is requested for '23. All the rest of it is requested for '22. Now, that's not going to happen, and clearly for all the reasons that we've just talked about.

在 40 億美元以上的硬件中，我們只得到了 23 年所需的幾億美元。其餘的都是 '22 要求的。現在，這不會發生，顯然是因為我們剛才談到的所有原因。

But it does give you, I think, a great insight into the fact that there's not that much forward ordering in that backlog. This is real demand that [folks demand].

但我認為，它確實讓你對這樣一個事實有了很好的了解，即在該積壓工作中沒有那麼多的前向排序。這是[人們要求]的真實需求。

And just another clarifying couple of points here. Our backlog is definitely a double-edged sword here. It's great to have the demand. It's great that the orders are placed on us as compared to our competitors.

這裡只是另一個澄清的幾點。我們的積壓工作在這裡絕對是一把雙刃劍。有需求真是太好了。與我們的競爭對手相比，我們收到訂單真是太好了。

But part of the reason that we have such a big backlog is because our lead times are longer than we'd like them to be. And we're not making our customers delighted as we like to do.

但我們有如此大的積壓的部分原因是因為我們的交貨時間比我們希望的要長。而且我們並沒有像我們喜歡做的那樣讓我們的客戶感到高興。

And so the fact is that when we get new orders, which we've had a ton of this year, most of them are being scheduled out in the latter part of this year, in some cases, into 2023.

所以事實是，當我們收到今年大量的新訂單時，其中大部分都被安排在今年下半年，在某些情況下，到 2023 年。

As Gary said, it's not really 2023 demand, but that's when we can deliver it. So it's -- as we say, it's a double-edged sword. We're glad we have the orders, but we'd like to delight our customers.

正如加里所說，這並不是真正的 2023 年需求，但那是我們可以交付的時候。因此，正如我們所說，這是一把雙刃劍。我們很高興我們收到了訂單，但我們希望讓我們的客戶滿意。

Fair enough, and that's really helpful. I guess just my follow-up would be -- in the past, when we've had a revenue challenge or headwind, [gross margin] have typically done really well. I think it's been a mix of new projects versus existing ones.

很公平，這真的很有幫助。我想我的後續行動會是——在過去，當我們遇到收入挑戰或逆風時，[毛利率]通常做得很好。我認為這是新項目與現有項目的混合。

Just (inaudible) ever seen the revenue headwind, but we aren't seeing a gross margin offset or tailwind. So maybe just talk about why aren't we seeing that tailwind because historically lower revenues has meant better gross margins for the company. So why is that not happening this time around?

只是（聽不清）曾經看到收入逆風，但我們沒有看到毛利率抵消或順風。所以也許只是談談為什麼我們沒有看到這種順風，因為歷史上較低的收入意味著公司的毛利率更高。那麼為什麼這一次沒有發生呢？

Amit, I'll take the first part of that, and then maybe Jim or Scott can talk to the actual sort of increase in cost.

阿米特，我先講第一部分，然後吉姆或斯科特可能會談談成本的實際增加。

The first part of it is really mix. And so, Amit, what we're seeing is, remember, we've won a lot of new global strategic carriers and web-scale build-outs that we're now deploying.

它的第一部分是真正的混合。所以，阿米特，我們看到的是，記住，我們已經贏得了許多新的全球戰略運營商和我們現在正在部署的網絡規模的擴建。

So a lot of that is really, I think, commons and line systems, which tends to be lower margin. So just the general mix on the business, given the size of it, even though Routing and Switching is doing well and Software is doing well, it really -- the large part of the mix is around those line systems right now.

因此，我認為其中很多實際上是公地和線路系統，這往往是較低的利潤。因此，考慮到它的規模，只是業務的一般組合，即使路由和交換做得很好，軟件也做得很好，真的——現在大部分組合都圍繞著這些線路系統。

Now, it bodes extremely well for the future because then we can put in cards and modems, which tend to be higher gross margins. So you've got a different mix, really based on the demand that we're seeing. And a lot of it's new builds that were both with new customers and with existing folks.

現在，這預示著未來非常好，因為那時我們可以放入卡和調製解調器，這往往是更高的毛利率。所以你有一個不同的組合，真的基於我們看到的需求。很多都是新客戶和現有客戶的新版本。

Yes. And just to put some numbers on it, Amit, remember the last time we've talked about what we believe to be our long-term gross margin -- or run rate gross margin, I should say, is around mid-40s. We said 44% to 46%. So I'm going to shorthand it at 45%.

是的。並且只是在上面放一些數字，阿米特，請記住我們上次談到我們認為的長期毛利率 - 或者我應該說的運行率毛利率在 40 年代中期左右。我們說 44% 到 46%。所以我將其簡寫為 45%。

When we went into COVID, there was a smaller percentage of new builds because of the difficulty of getting supplies in people out to locations. And so we had a higher percentage of capacity adds, which are higher in gross margin. So we enjoyed that.

當我們進入 COVID 時，由於難以將人員運送到各個地點，因此新建建築的比例較小。所以我們的產能增加比例更高，毛利率也更高。所以我們很享受。

But we said, as we entered this year, that we thought that our gross margin this year was going to be 43% to 46% overall because we did expect a higher proportion of new builds and commons and photonics, which are inherently lower margin.

但我們說，當我們進入今年時，我們認為我們今年的總體毛利率將達到 43% 到 46%，因為我們確實預計新建築、公地和光子學的比例會更高，而這些本來就是較低的利潤率。

That was our expectation, coming into this year. Now what's happened is, we are seeing that. But we're also seeing significantly higher premiums that we're paying to get parts. We're trying our best to supply our customers, even if it costs us money and gross margin, which it is, and also higher logistics costs.

這是我們的期望，進入今年。現在發生的事情是，我們看到了。但我們也看到我們為獲得零件而支付的高得多的保費。我們正在盡最大努力為我們的客戶提供產品，即使這會花費我們的金錢和毛利率，而且物流成本也會更高。

The rough math for the effect on this year's gross margin of those two latter points, meaning premiums and logistics costs, is roughly 400 basis points. You can think of it that way. So you can do math and get to where you think our gross margin might be without these.

後兩個點（即保費和物流成本）對今年毛利率影響的粗略計算約為 400 個基點。你可以這樣想。因此，您可以進行數學計算並得出您認為沒有這些我們的毛利率可能達到的地方。

We are reasonably confident that we're going to get back to those mid-40s at least, as we come out of the supply chain situation. But we can't give you a prediction as to when it's going to occur.

我們有理由相信，隨著我們擺脫供應鏈狀況，我們至少會回到 40 年代中期。但我們無法預測它何時會發生。

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Long from Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Tim Long。

Your next question comes from the line of George Notter from Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 George Notter。

I guess I wanted to ask about purchase commitments. I think you said in the monologue that one of your mitigating initiatives was to ramp up purchase commitments.

我想我想問一下購買承諾。我認為您在獨白中說過，您的緩解措施之一是增加購買承諾。

Could you tell us what that purchase commitment number was? And I think if I recall correctly, when you printed the 10-K, that number was about $430 million. So just curious if that number is up.

你能告訴我們那個購買承諾號是什麼嗎？我想如果我沒記錯的話，當你打印 10-K 時，這個數字大約是 4.3 億美元。所以只是好奇這個數字是否上升。

Yes, that's up quite significantly, George. It's up to about $1.8 billion today. We've essentially laid out to our supply chain at least the next 18 months of what we see as demand. So if they deliver on that, we're going to do very well.

是的，這是相當顯著的，喬治。今天高達約 18 億美元。至少在接下來的 18 個月裡，我們基本上已經為我們的供應鏈佈局了我們認為的需求。因此，如果他們能做到這一點，我們就會做得很好。

Got it. Okay. And then the other thing I wanted to ask about was your inventories started to inflect, I think, just a couple of quarters ago -- look, obviously, the supply chain environment has been around for a couple of years.

知道了。好的。然後我想問的另一件事是你的庫存開始變化，我認為，就在幾個季度前 - 顯然，供應鏈環境已經存在了幾年。

And so purchase commitments are just inflecting, now inventories are just inflecting in the last quarter or two. I guess, I'm wondering if like this is more of an execution issue at Ciena or do you think by and large you guys have executed as well as anybody else?

所以採購承諾只是在變化，現在庫存只是在最後一兩個季度出現變化。我想，我想知道這是否更像是 Ciena 的執行問題，還是您認為總體上你們執行得和其他人一樣好？

Let me take the first part of that, George, and maybe Scott can talk to the inventory a little more precisely. I mean, listen, I think that -- I think to date, we've navigated it extremely well. I mean you look at the performance. We shipped more in the second half than we did -- in the first half than we did in the previous year.

讓我談談第一部分，喬治，也許斯科特可以更準確地與庫存交談。我的意思是，聽著，我認為 - 我認為迄今為止，我們已經很好地駕馭了它。我的意思是你看表演。我們下半年的出貨量比我們做的要多——上半年比我們上一年做的還要多。

Revenues are up 14% in the quarter. So I think the numbers talk to themselves, particularly when compared to the competition. So we're a much larger installed base. We're a much larger business with larger market share, but we're still growing the business and shipping more.

本季度收入增長 14%。所以我認為這些數字會自言自語，尤其是與競爭對手相比時。所以我們是一個更大的安裝基礎。我們是一家規模更大的企業，擁有更大的市場份額，但我們仍在發展業務並增加出貨量。

It's not where we want to be or where we could be if we had supply. So I think generally, we're navigating through better than anybody else, but it's not -- it isn't where we want to be from, as Jim said, from a customer satisfaction point of view.

這不是我們想去的地方，也不是如果我們有供應我們可以去的地方。所以我認為總的來說，我們比其他任何人都做得更好，但這不是 - 正如吉姆所說，從客戶滿意度的角度來看，這不是我們想要的地方。

And George, just to speak a little bit to the inventory position, a couple of dynamics there that are all rooted in conscious decisions. And it really relates back to Jim's comment of we're not pleased with the way we're servicing our customers.

喬治，只是對庫存位置說一點，那裡的一些動態都植根於有意識的決定。這真的與吉姆的評論有關，即我們對我們為客戶提供服務的方式不滿意。

So we are making investments in component inventory, where we can get our hands on it, in preparation for the last remaining items that come in, in order for us to turn it into finished goods, so that we can do that very quickly for our customers when they become available.

因此，我們正在對組件庫存進行投資，我們可以在其中獲得它，為最後剩下的物品做準備，以便我們將其變成成品，這樣我們就可以很快地為我們的客戶可用時。

We've also complemented that with manufacturing capacity expansion. So again, we can turn components into finished goods as fast as possible for our customers. So it was a conscious decision.

我們還通過擴大製造能力來補充這一點。同樣，我們可以為客戶盡快將組件變成成品。所以這是一個有意識的決定。

If you look inside that inventory number, you'll see it -- more of it has shifted actually to the component level versus the finished goods level as well. And you can see that dynamic happening.

如果您查看該庫存編號，您會看到它 - 實際上更多的是轉移到組件級別而不是成品級別。你可以看到動態的發生。

And just to the point of our purchase commitments, George, if you read the statement and how we describe it, we talk about noncancelable purchase commitments.

就我們的購買承諾而言，喬治，如果您閱讀了聲明以及我們如何描述它，我們談論的是不可取消的購買承諾。

If you think about the -- there are certain procedures that we have to go through, in order to cancel, but our actual total purchase commitments, even a year ago, were much higher than the $400 million that we disclosed because we considered that a lot of it was cancelable.

如果您考慮一下-我們必須通過某些程序才能取消，但我們的實際總購買承諾，即使是一年前，也遠高於我們披露的 4 億美元，因為我們認為很多是可以取消的。

Today, we -- given the demand situation, we've sort of viewed essentially all, perhaps not essentially all, of our forward purchase commitments as noncancelable because we're not going to cancel them. We need the stuff.

今天，我們 - 考慮到需求情況，我們基本上認為我們所有的遠期採購承諾，也許不是全部，都是不可取消的，因為我們不會取消它們。我們需要這些東西。

So if you could see inside that logic, you would have a different view of what our purchase -- our total purchase commitments were even a year -- a lot higher.

因此，如果你能看到這個邏輯，你會對我們的購買有不同的看法——我們的總購買承諾甚至是一年——要高得多。

The other thing I'd add to that, George, is that I'd just remind really, that's raw component cost. That's -- there's no transformation on that. That doesn't include the inventory that we've got on stack.

喬治，我要補充的另一件事是，我真的要提醒一下，那是原始組件成本。那是 - 沒有任何轉變。這不包括我們在堆棧上的庫存。

So if you add all of that lot together, we basically have provided commitments out to our supply chain for key elements, for the next 18 months.

因此，如果您將所有這些加在一起，我們基本上已經向我們的供應鏈承諾了未來 18 個月的關鍵要素。

As I think about the kind of manufacturing side of this, I know, for example, going back to OFC, we were talking to some of your customers. I know lead times were more than a year. Where are lead times now?

當我想到這方面的製造方面時，我知道，例如，回到 OFC，我們正在與您的一些客戶交談。我知道交貨時間超過一年。現在交貨時間在哪裡？

And do you think there's some potential for you guys to lose share, now that we're hitting again, longer and longer lead times and it's frustrating of certain -- for customers?

你是否認為你們有可能失去份額，現在我們再次受到打擊，交貨時間越來越長，這對某些客戶來說令人沮喪？

Yes. Lead times, George, are 100% a function of the component availability. It's not a function of our manufacturing capacity, so I'll point that out. And the numbers you sort of quoted is kind of in the range of where we're sitting today from a lead time perspective.

是的。 George 的交貨時間是 100% 的組件可用性的函數。這不是我們製造能力的函數，所以我會指出這一點。從交貨時間的角度來看，您引用的數字有點在我們今天所處的範圍內。

And bending the curve on that, again, goes back to when do you believe the component supply industry starts to show better performance. Do you want to talk to the durability of the demand, anyone?

再次彎曲曲線，可以追溯到您認為組件供應行業何時開始表現出更好的表現。你想談談需求的持久性，有人嗎？

Yes. I mean I think in terms of the competitive environment, our market share -- let's look at a couple of data points here. Our market share in the first half, we think, increased 1% during all of this.

是的。我的意思是，我認為就競爭環境而言，我們的市場份額——讓我們看一下這裡的幾個數據點。我們認為，我們上半年的市場份額在所有這些過程中都增加了 1%。

That's revenue. That's not...

那是收入。那不是...

And that's absolute revenue. Yes, that's not shipments. I mean, we shipped actually more than that. But it's -- that's excluding China. So we grew 1%. And I think the other two data points is, our revenue grew more than the competition in the first half.

這是絕對收入。是的，這不是出貨量。我的意思是，我們運送的實際上不止這些。但這不包括中國。所以我們增長了 1%。我認為另外兩個數據點是，我們上半年的收入增長超過了競爭對手。

So we're shipping more, and we're a much bigger company than a lot of those folks in optical share. And then the other testament to it is the order flow. I don't think anybody is seeing the kind of order validation from the customers, knowing what our lead times are. And we're still increasing our backlog. We've been very transparent with our customers.

所以我們出貨更多，而且我們是一家比許多光學份額大得多的公司。然後另一個證明是訂單流。我認為沒有人會從客戶那裡看到這種訂單驗證，知道我們的交貨時間是多少。而且我們仍在增加我們的積壓工作。我們對客戶非常透明。

But remember, our products are highly differentiated. We have, by far, the best technology and relationships with these customers. And I think global scale and balance sheet and those relationships are absolutely critical to coming through this with a winning hand. And that's what we're focused on.

但請記住，我們的產品是高度差異化的。到目前為止，我們擁有最好的技術以及與這些客戶的關係。而且我認為全球規模和資產負債表以及這些關係對於贏得勝利至關重要。這就是我們所關注的。

And just as importantly, all of our competitors are looking at the same supply chain conditions that we are. And so it's unlikely that anybody is looking at wildly different lead times than what we're able to provide.

同樣重要的是，我們所有的競爭對手都在關注與我們相同的供應鏈條件。因此，任何人都不太可能看到與我們能夠提供的完全不同的交貨時間。

Your next question comes from the line of Fahad Najam from Loop Capital.

您的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 Fahad Najam。

Gary, if I look at your backlog commentary and the quantification you provided and across your competitors, the cynical [mediocre in me] says, I have the networking -- or the optical networking, market hasn't been growing this past -- broadband speeds to my home hasn't really changed much in the last -- since the COVID pandemic started.

加里，如果我看看你的積壓評論和你提供的量化以及你的競爭對手，憤世嫉俗的 [我平庸] 說，我有網絡 - 或光網絡，市場過去一直沒有增長 - 寬帶自從 COVID 大流行開始以來，上一次到我家的速度並沒有太大變化。

So where is this all (inaudible) coming from or is it just a pure function of customers double order, not forward ordering but double ordering, in order to secure more supplies? What do you say to that?

那麼這一切（聽不清）是從哪裡來的，還是僅僅是為了確保更多的供應，客戶雙重訂購的純粹功能，不是提前訂購而是雙重訂購？你對那個有什麼想法？

I say to that, we're not seeing that. There may be some minimal amount of that. But given the fact that this is not commodity stuff, you can't swap and change around it. And the relationships we have with our customers, I think that is not a dynamic that we're seeing. What's driving this is real bandwidth growth.

我說，我們沒有看到。可能有一些最小的數量。但鑑於這不是商品，你不能交換和改變它。我們與客戶的關係，我認為這不是我們所看到的動態。推動這一切的是真正的帶寬增長。

And when you think about what's happened during the pandemic, people were using more bandwidth, but carriers weren't spending. And this market was kind of flat for about 2 years. And we expected an uptick, which we began to see about 18 months ago.

當您考慮大流行期間發生的事情時，人們正在使用更多的帶寬，但運營商並沒有花錢。這個市場在大約 2 年的時間里基本持平。我們預計會出現上升，大約在 18 個月前我們開始看到。

So I think it's -- the demand from the customers has continued to increase from the consumers of this, both the consumers and the enterprise space. What we're seeing is just an uptick in cloud adoption, both at a personal level and at a global enterprise level. It's about getting bandwidth much faster, closer to the customer in their various forms.

所以我認為是——消費者的需求不斷增加，消費者和企業空間都是如此。我們所看到的只是雲採用率的上升，無論是在個人層面還是在全球企業層面。這是關於以各種形式更快地獲得帶寬，更接近客戶。

And that's why we're seeing an uptick across all of the sectors, submarine, data center interconnect, metro edge. All of the engagements that we have are all about how do we get more capacity, more efficiently out there.

這就是為什麼我們看到所有行業、潛艇、數據中心互連、地鐵邊緣都出現增長。我們所有的參與都是關於我們如何獲得更多的容量，更有效的。

So this is not embedded in some false security of supply/demand piece. Absolutely not. This is about real demand of traffic. And for all the reasons, I think we can all understand and we see in our daily lives.

因此，這並沒有嵌入到供需部分的某些虛假安全性中。絕對不。這是關於流量的真實需求。出於所有原因，我認為我們都可以理解並在日常生活中看到。

One thing I'd say though, Fahad, is this, that for a long, long time, this industry has grown at low to mid-single digits, overall. And we've grown at sort of 8%. And our last guide for 3 years said, we do expect the industry to continue to grow at historic rates, and we expect to grow at 6% to 8%.

不過，法赫德，我想說的一件事是，在很長很長一段時間內，這個行業總體上以低到中個位數的速度增長。我們已經增長了 8%。我們最近三年的指南說，我們確實預計該行業將繼續以歷史速度增長，我們預計將增長 6% 至 8%。

So none of that has changed, in our view. The world continues to act as it has been acting. So we're not saying that this kind of order flow is going to continue for the long term. We think that order flow will be good, it's not going to be at the higher levels that we're seeing this year.

因此，在我們看來，這一切都沒有改變。世界繼續按照它一直以來的方式行事。所以我們並不是說這種訂單流會長期持續下去。我們認為訂單流會很好，不會達到我們今年看到的更高水平。

So I don't want you to think that we're calling up our growth rate. I would say this, I think, given what we think our backlog will be at the end of this year and assuming that our suppliers deliver on their commitments to us, we'll have a growth rate in revenue next year that's well above the 6% to 8% than we've seen in the past.

所以我不希望你認為我們正在提高我們的增長率。我會這麼說，我認為，鑑於我們認為我們的積壓訂單將在今年年底，並假設我們的供應商履行對我們的承諾，我們明年的收入增長率將遠高於 6 % 到 8% 比我們過去看到的要高。

I can't give you a number on that, but it's going to be good. But again, our long-term view of the future of the industry is, grows at 3% to 5%, and we're going to grow in that world of 6% to 8%. That's what we think today.

我不能給你一個數字，但它會很好。但同樣，我們對行業未來的長期看法是，以 3% 到 5% 的速度增長，我們將在 6% 到 8% 的世界中增長。這就是我們今天的想法。

My follow-up, kind of really piggyback on George's question on the extending lead times and the supply chain shortages. To what extent are these forcing your customers to change architectures, maybe shift (inaudible) pluggable?

我的後續行動，有點像喬治關於延長交貨時間和供應鏈短缺的問題。這些在多大程度上迫使您的客戶改變架構，也許轉變（聽不清）可插拔？

You can plug a plug into an existing router, you don't have to ship a new power system or power supply, et cetera. So do you think there is a risk of customers adopting pluggables faster because this will [eat] the bandwidth?

您可以將插頭插入現有路由器，而不必運送新的電源系統或電源等。那麼，您是否認為客戶更快地採用可插拔設備存在風險，因為這會 [吃掉] 帶寬？

No, not at all. In fact, I think, ironically, the dynamic may be the opposite because in order to take advantage of those pluggables, you actually have to upgrade your entire switching and routing infrastructure to a 400-gig infrastructure. That is constrained by the supply chain as well.

一點都不。事實上，具有諷刺意味的是，我認為動態可能恰恰相反，因為為了利用這些可插拔設備，您實際上必須將整個交換和路由基礎設施升級到 400 gig 基礎設施。這也受到供應鏈的限制。

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Long from Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Tim Long。

Sorry about that before. Two questions, if I could. First, let's just beat a dead horse and then a second one. Jim -- or Jim and Gary, last guidance implied no decommits. And when we look at the Q4 to get to the full year, looks like a pretty big sequential increase, probably something like 20%.

之前很抱歉。兩個問題，如果可以的話。首先，讓我們先打一匹死馬，然後再打一匹死馬。吉姆——或者吉姆和加里，最後的指導暗示沒有解除承諾。當我們看第四季度到全年時，看起來是一個相當大的連續增長，可能大約 20%。

I'm not sure exactly what -- mid-single digits for the year. Means, why would we assume that everything gets delivered as expected? What visibility do we have that the supply chain is going to live up to the commitments they have when that hasn't happened over the last multiple months here? That's number one.

我不確定到底是什麼——今年的中個位數。意思是，我們為什麼要假設一切都按預期交付？我們有什麼能見度表明供應鏈將兌現他們過去幾個月沒有發生的承諾？那是第一名。

And then number two, I was hoping if you could just dig more into the Switching, Routing part of the business. Obviously, you've added Vyatta, if you could just talk about how much that helped the numbers?

然後第二點，我希望你能更多地挖掘業務的交換、路由部分。顯然，你已經添加了 Vyatta，如果你能談談這對數字有多大幫助嗎？

And you talked about expanding TAM and use cases. So if you could just, Gary, maybe give us a little color on how you see the trajectory of that business potentially moving over the next few years here?

您談到了擴展 TAM 和用例。所以，如果你可以的話，加里，也許可以給我們一點顏色，看看你如何看待未來幾年該業務的發展軌跡？

Yes, Tim, I'll take the first part. And what we've always tried to do and what we continue to do today is we're trying to give you -- or give the world a set of numbers that are reasonable and reflect our view of what the world looks like today. We expect that there will be some de-commits.

是的，蒂姆，我將參加第一部分。我們一直試圖做的以及我們今天繼續做的是我們試圖給你——或者給世界一組合理的數字，反映我們對當今世界的看法。我們預計會有一些解除承諾。

I will say this that we had de-commits in Q2, which we were largely able to mitigate. And therefore, we came in line with our revenue. Hopefully, we've built in sort of margin for error that we can handle some de-commits. But again, it's our best view of the future. And yes, it's -- if you look at the entire year, we're roughly $250 million or so below what we've said about the year in the past.

我會說我們在第二季度取消了承諾，我們在很大程度上能夠緩解這種情況。因此，我們的收入與我們的收入一致。希望我們已經為錯誤建立了某種餘量，我們可以處理一些取消提交。但同樣，這是我們對未來的最佳看法。是的，如果你看一整年，我們大約比過去一年所說的低 2.5 億美元左右。

Roughly half of that is because of the fact that our optical subcomponent vendors are unable to get parts. And the other half is because of the China lockdowns. It's not precisely 50%, but roughly half and half.

其中大約一半是因為我們的光學子組件供應商無法獲得零件。另一半是因為中國的封鎖。它不是精確的 50%，而是大約一半。

And then to your question about breaking down a little bit the dynamics that are going on in the routing and switching business, I'll say this, just to repeat, the business itself was up 27% sequentially quarter-on-quarter and about 70% year-on-year. That's a combination of organic growth and inorganic growth of Vyatta, I'd say roughly split, half and half roughly, between the 2. What's driving that? The primary use cases for that portfolio that we're focused on are all centered around the evolution of the metro and the edge.

然後對於你關於分解路由和交換業務中正在發生的動態的問題，我會這麼說，重複一遍，業務本身環比增長 27%，大約 70 ％ 比去年同期。這是 Vyatta 的有機增長和無機增長的結合，我會說大致分為兩部分，大致一半一半。是什麼推動了這一點？我們關注的該產品組合的主要用例都圍繞著地鐵和邊緣的發展。

We see growing interest in our wireless transport infrastructure, transport infrastructure as people build out fiber to the tower and look at architectures moving to 5G, Enterprise Connect, as Gary talked about enterprise connecting to the cloud, a new space for us around residential access, getting a lot of interest in the architecture there.

我們看到人們對我們的無線傳輸基礎設施越來越感興趣，傳輸基礎設施隨著人們在塔上建造光纖，並研究向 5G 遷移的架構，Enterprise Connect，正如 Gary 談到企業連接到雲，這是我們圍繞住宅接入的新空間，對那裡的建築產生了濃厚的興趣。

And then backing off from that, bringing all 3 of those use cases back deeper into the network, a common routing and switching aggregation platform. So those are the 4 areas that we're investing in. We think it represents a significant TAM expansion over the years for us. And the early signs, as you can see in the results year-over-year, we're having some really good early success there.

然後退後一步，將所有這三個用例帶回網絡的更深處，這是一個通用的路由和交換聚合平台。所以這些是我們正在投資的 4 個領域。我們認為這對我們來說代表了多年來 TAM 的重大擴張。正如您在年復一年的結果中看到的那樣，早期跡象表明，我們在那裡取得了一些非常好的早期成功。

Your next question comes from the line of David Vogt from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 David Vogt。

Great. I just want come back to -- my line cut out earlier. I just want to come back to the lack of supply in specifically ICs. I guess it's our understanding that this is a fairly well-known headwind. And I guess I'm just curious, how do you square that commentary that the book-to-bill and backlog are strong. But I would imagine your customers are incredibly sophisticated. They know their shortages of ICs.

偉大的。我只是想回到——我的台詞早些時候被切斷了。我只想回到特定 IC 供應不足的問題。我想這是我們的理解，這是一個眾所周知的逆風。而且我想我只是好奇，你如何看待書到賬單和積壓很強的評論。但我想你的客戶非常老練。他們知道他們的集成電路短缺。

So is there a risk that they've already adjusted their order cadence a little bit earlier. And so that raises some risk that there could be an air pocket later, maybe not this year, but into 2023?

那麼是否存在他們已經稍早調整訂單節奏的風險。這會增加一些風險，即以後可能會出現氣袋，可能不是今年，而是到 2023 年？

And then I didn't hear any discussion of maybe what a recession might look like next year. If we do move into a more slower growth GDP environment, what that would look like for your -- not only your order growth and your backlog, but what your customers might respond to? And then I have a follow-up on the numbers being pushed out into next year.

然後我沒有聽到任何關於明年經濟衰退可能是什麼樣子的討論。如果我們確實進入了一個增長更慢的 GDP 環境，那對您來說會是什麼樣子——不僅是您的訂單增長和積壓，還有您的客戶可能會做出什麼反應？然後我會對被推遲到明年的數字進行跟進。

David, let me take the recession one first, and I'll then take Scott for the first part of your question. I think we're obviously mindful of the macro sort of economic challenges that it looks like the world is going to go through.

大衛，讓我先談談經濟衰退，然後我會帶斯科特回答你問題的第一部分。我認為我們顯然注意到了世界將要經歷的宏觀經濟挑戰。

But I would say a couple of things. In the conversations with all of our customer base and its diversity, we are not seeing any let up in their forecast and demands and they're long-term plans. I mean, we've got pretty good visibility into the next 1 to 3 years around the overall dynamics of what they're seeing to do.

但我想說幾件事。在與我們所有客戶群及其多樣性的對話中，我們沒有看到他們的預測和需求有任何放鬆，它們是長期計劃。我的意思是，我們對未來 1 到 3 年的整體動態有很好的了解。

And so -- Listen, I think the industry is never immune to a recession, but it's generally performed extremely well during a recession because people need access to the network. And network operators and web-scale are going to continue to invest in their network and getting more traffic out there. So I think we feel very good around the durability of the demand that we're seeing.

所以——聽著，我認為這個行業永遠不會免受衰退的影響，但它在衰退期間通常表現得非常好，因為人們需要訪問網絡。網絡運營商和網絡規模將繼續投資於他們的網絡並獲得更多流量。因此，我認為我們對所看到的需求的持久性感覺非常好。

And in terms of fulfilling what we've got, I think what we're trying to do right now is just really catch up with the backlog and the pent-up demand. I mean, as Jim said, I don't think we're going to see order flows at the rate that we're seeing them right now for this year. But I don't think it's going to fall off a cliff or go through an air pocket either.

在實現我們所擁有的方面，我認為我們現在要做的就是真正趕上積壓和被壓抑的需求。我的意思是，正如吉姆所說，我認為今年的訂單流動速度不會像我們現在看到的那樣。但我不認為它會掉下懸崖或穿過氣袋。

I think you've seen a change in the dynamic around -- this is really an infrastructure business, and I think people are getting used to ordering out longer term. And I think you will see that -- these lead times will get better over time for sure. But I think you will see great long-term visibility with our customers.

我認為你已經看到了動態的變化——這確實是一項基礎設施業務，我認為人們已經習慣於長期訂購。我想你會看到 - 這些交貨時間肯定會隨著時間的推移而變得更好。但我認為您會在我們的客戶中看到很好的長期知名度。

And remember that we're advertising and talking to our customers about longer lead times. It's absolutely imperative that they then place longer duration orders on us than has been the case in the past because they do need the gear. And we're not -- as we said, we're not claiming that this rate of order intake is sustainable, but we are -- we do strongly believe that demand for our products and services will continue to grow, and we'll continue to take market share.

請記住，我們正在宣傳並與我們的客戶討論更長的交貨時間。然後他們絕對必須向我們下達比過去更長的訂單，因為他們確實需要裝備。而且我們不是——正如我們所說，我們並沒有聲稱這種訂單接收率是可持續的，但我們確實——我們堅信對我們的產品和服務的需求將繼續增長，我們將繼續搶占市場份額。

Great. Maybe just as a quick follow-up, that's helpful. So given lead times, at least appear to be persistently long and not tightening here in the near term, how would you handicap sort of that $250 million revenue shortfall, the likelihood of being able to capture that next year, given where lead times are and where commits are at this point and your purchase order commitments, right?

偉大的。也許只是作為快速跟進，這很有幫助。因此，考慮到交貨時間，至少在短期內似乎持續很長而且不會收緊，你將如何限制這 2.5 億美元的收入缺口，考慮到交貨時間在哪裡，明年能夠抓住這一點的可能性和此時的承諾和您的採購訂單承諾在哪裡，對嗎？

So -- I mean, obviously, it's a difficult visible -- difficult visibility to predict, but you mentioned that you'll obviously think you'll grow fast, 6% to 8%, next year, but is the expectation based on your order book and where your supply chain is today that you'd be able to capture most, if not all, of that next year?

所以 - 我的意思是，顯然，這是一個難以預測的 - 難以預測的可見性，但你提到你顯然會認為你明年會快速增長 6% 到 8%，但基於你的預期訂單簿以及您今天的供應鏈在哪裡，明年您將能夠獲得大部分（如果不是全部）嗎？

Well, I mean, if you just look at the delivery dates, it probably would be in next year's. But all we can say about next year today really is that given where we think our backlog will be at the end of this year, we do expect to have a significantly higher growth rate in 2023 than the 6% to 8% we promised in the past. And I can't give you an exact number because I don't know the number, but I think it's going to be a great year next year.

嗯，我的意思是，如果你只看交貨日期，它可能會在明年。但我們今天只能說明年真的是，考慮到我們認為今年年底我們的積壓訂單將在哪裡，我們確實預計 2023 年的增長率將顯著高於我們在過去的。我不能給你一個確切的數字，因為我不知道這個數字，但我認為明年會是很棒的一年。

And I would just add that I think sort of our -- and again, we're not talking about '23 right now, but our sort of view is what's going to happen is we've got to get greater predictability from supply chain. And we've got to get the volumes that supply chain have committed for '23. We're not really banking on improved lead times from our suppliers.

我只想補充一點，我認為我們的 - 再說一遍，我們現在不是在談論 '23，但我們的觀點是，我們必須從供應鏈中獲得更大的可預測性。我們必須得到供應鍊為 23 年承諾的數量。我們並沒有真正指望供應商縮短交貨時間。

Your next question comes from the line of Rod Hall from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Rod Hall。

Yes. I appreciate it. I just had 5 more questions on supply, and then I wondered if you could pick the (inaudible).

是的。我很感激。我還有 5 個關於供應的問題，然後我想知道您是否可以選擇（聽不清）。

There's 5? We have 5 more answers for you, Rod.

有5個？羅德，我們還有 5 個答案給你。

No, I wanted to dig into the verticals a little bit. I'm just looking at the -- the cable number was kind of usually that's seasonally up in April and it's kind of flatlined. I don't know if that's supply oriented. So I just wondered if maybe you could talk a little bit about the demand dynamics there. And then likewise, government is up a lot. I mean, that was a big number in April.

不，我想深入研究一下垂直領域。我只是在看 - 有線電視號碼通常在 4 月季節性上升，而且有點平淡。我不知道這是否面向供應。所以我只是想知道你是否可以談談那裡的需求動態。同樣，政府也漲了很多。我的意思是，這在四月份是一個很大的數字。

Just curious if you guys could dig into those vertical demand dynamics a little bit. How much is affected by the supply, how much of this is demand, but just curious what's happening there.

只是好奇你們是否可以深入了解這些垂直需求動態。有多少受供應影響，有多少是需求，但只是好奇那裡發生了什麼。

Yes, I would say the cable piece is purely supply -- and we're seeing very, very strong demand out of that and it could have been a lot greater if we would have had -- hate to use the s-word again, supply.

是的，我會說電纜純粹是供應——我們看到了非常非常強勁的需求，如果我們有的話，它可能會更大——討厭再次使用這個詞，供應。

So I don't think there's anything to that. Government was a couple of larger projects that we delivered in the quarter. You get a lot of ebbs and flows on the government stuff, very project based. But I think the cable space, together with the sort of Tier 1 carriers in North America, very, very robust demand. And again, it's really a function of just our supply.

所以我認為這沒什麼。政府是我們在本季度交付的幾個較大的項目。你會在政府的東西上得到很多潮起潮落，非常基於項目。但我認為有線電視空間以及北美的一級運營商的需求非常非常強勁。再說一次，這實際上是我們供應的一個功能。

And do you think -- I mean the government number, Gary, does that kind of ratchet back down again, April just was a pulse project-oriented revenue? Or is that (inaudible)?

你認為 - 我的意思是政府數字，加里，這種棘輪再次下降嗎，四月只是一個以項目為導向的脈衝收入？或者是（聽不清）？

Yes. I think the forecast for it, depending on the ability to ship, but I think that's likely to go down in Q3, but we are seeing -- if we step back from those ebbs and flows, we are seeing a sort of consistent investment by the government and in their networks for all kinds of reasons, we can probably know. And so we do feel good around that space.

是的。我認為對它的預測取決於出貨能力，但我認為這可能會在第三季度下降，但我們看到——如果我們從這些起伏中退後，我們會看到一種持續的投資政府和他們的網絡出於各種原因，我們大概可以知道。所以我們確實在那個空間感覺很好。

And I mean -- I appreciate you highlighting it. We feel good around that for the next few years. There's a lot of network build-out and network modernization that's going on within the various government networks.

我的意思是——我感謝你強調它。在接下來的幾年裡，我們對此感覺良好。在各種政府網絡中正在進行大量的網絡建設和網絡現代化。

Our technology fits their needs very well too.

我們的技術也非常適合他們的需求。

Your next question comes from the line of Tal Liani from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Tal Liani。

The risk that things get canceled next year because customers don't get the product. So if I'm thinking about the cloud or the service providers having their side of the operation ready for products and not running any operations, so they don't get the revenues associated. Why start a project if there are still supply chain issues? So the question is about the sensitivity of demand to supply basically.

由於客戶沒有得到產品，明年事情被取消的風險。因此，如果我正在考慮雲計算或服務提供商的運營方面已為產品做好準備而不運行任何運營，那麼他們就不會獲得相關的收入。如果仍然存在供應鏈問題，為什麼要啟動一個項目？所以問題基本上是關於需求對供應的敏感性。

I don't think that's the driving for sale. I think the driving force here, Tal, is underlying demand for bandwidth. And that has continued to grow through every economic condition we've had for 20 years or 30 years. So I don't think lack of supply is going to constrain their demand. I think it's -- they're going to have the demand as long as their customers are demanding services from them. And as I said, we've seen no reduction in that.

我不認為這是出售的驅動力。 Tal，我認為這裡的驅動力是對帶寬的潛在需求。在我們 20 年或 30 年的每一種經濟條件下，這種情況都在持續增長。所以我不認為供應不足會限制他們的需求。我認為是——只要他們的客戶要求他們提供服務，他們就會有需求。正如我所說，我們沒有看到減少。

I think on the web-scale specifically, there's no point building a data center, if you can't connect it. I mean, I get the point but -- I want to get the sort of context to this, right. We are shipping more than we did last year. So we are shipping stuff. So we are providing connectivity to these folks and they're not just getting the full capacity that they wanted so this is not a sort of binary situation.

我認為特別是在網絡規模上，如果你不能連接它，那麼建立一個數據中心是沒有意義的。我的意思是，我明白這一點，但是——我想了解這種情況，對吧。我們的出貨量比去年多。所以我們正在運送東西。因此，我們正在為這些人提供連接，他們不僅獲得了他們想要的全部容量，因此這不是一種二元情況。

I mean, we are growing. We just posted a quarter with 14% revenue growth despite all of this stuff. So -- it's not as if we're not getting stuff out there. So we are satiating some of the demand for our customers, but it's not everything that they want. And there aren't -- No one else is doing it better than we are.

我的意思是，我們正在成長。儘管有這些東西，我們剛剛發布了一個季度收入增長 14% 的數據。所以——這並不是說我們沒有把東西拿出來。因此，我們滿足了客戶的一些需求，但這並不是他們想要的一切。而且沒有——沒有人比我們做得更好。

So there's not a lot of other alternatives to that. And people wouldn't want to get out of the queue, I'm sure. And by the way, we've got the leading technology and continue to have that. So those are the dynamics that we speak of.

所以沒有很多其他的選擇。我敢肯定，人們不想離開隊列。順便說一句，我們擁有領先的技術並將繼續擁有它。所以這些就是我們所說的動態。

And the fundamental constraints, if you follow the chain, is common to everybody.

如果你遵循這個鏈條，基本的限制對每個人來說都是共同的。

Great. And Gary, maybe a follow-up question is what -- isn't this environment bringing up more voices within cloud to self-manufacture solutions rather than buy from vendors just because they'll have better control over the supply chain?

偉大的。加里，也許接下來的問題是——這種環境是否會在雲中為自行製造解決方案帶來更多的聲音，而不是僅僅因為他們可以更好地控制供應鏈而從供應商那裡購買？

Do you think that maybe white box solutions or anything that is more about self-designed self-manufacturing, don't you think that this can actually grow as a response to the current environment?

您是否認為可能是白盒解決方案或更多關於自我設計的自我製造的東西，您不認為這實際上可以作為對當前環境的響應而增長嗎？

I think, Tal, from the conversations that I personally have it, I think the opposite is actually true, frankly. I mean, we're able to navigate through it because we're a specialist focused player and we're vertically integrated. So we're actually in a better position to go and do that.

我認為，Tal，坦率地說，從我個人的談話來看，我認為事實恰恰相反。我的意思是，我們能夠駕馭它，因為我們是專注於專業的玩家，而且我們是垂直整合的。所以我們實際上處於一個更好的位置去這樣做。

And I think to Scott's point on the ZR pluggable thing, exactly the same reason is actually pushing that market out because it's more difficult to get the infrastructure to support that. So the DIY stuff is actually more difficult than it was before.

我認為對於 Scott 關於 ZR 可插拔事物的觀點，完全相同的原因實際上是將市場推出，因為更難獲得基礎設施來支持它。所以DIY的東西實際上比以前更難了。

Operator, we'll take one last question.

接線員，我們會回答最後一個問題。

Your final question comes from the line of Simon Leopold from Raymond James.

您的最後一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Simon Leopold。

Kind of surprised nobody has asked this actually. You talked about the supply chain worsening, and I get that, but it does seem to somewhat contradict some of the commentary we heard from some of your optical component suppliers.

有點驚訝實際上沒有人問這個問題。您談到供應鏈惡化，我明白這一點，但這似乎與我們從您的一些光學元件供應商那裡聽到的一些評論有些矛盾。

Basically, they guided to improving telecom shipments in their respective June ending quarters. And I just want to make sure I understand whether or not you're indicating that that's not really going to be the case, or if this is more about timing and why you don't sound more constructive if there's something else informing the challenges in optical components. And then just a quick follow-up, if I might. It's just an update on your own shipments of ZR pluggable.

基本上，他們指導在各自的 6 月底季度改善電信出貨量。我只是想確保我理解你是否表明情況並非如此，或者這是否更多地與時間有關，以及為什麼如果有其他信息可以告知挑戰，為什麼你聽起來不更有建設性光學元件。如果可以的話，然後只是快速跟進。這只是您自己的 ZR 可插拔發貨的更新。

Yes, Simon, to the first one, simple summary is, yes, it's timing. So the history is of when they see improvement when we actually get it through our supply chain and out to our end customers, it is timing. They did talk, though, about the gap or some of them talked about specifically to the gap that they had in their June quarter.

是的，西蒙，對於第一個，簡單的總結是，是的，是時機。因此，歷史是當我們真正通過我們的供應鏈並將其傳遞給我們的最終客戶時，當他們看到改進時，這是時機。不過，他們確實談到了差距，或者他們中的一些人專門談到了他們在 6 月季度的差距。

So if you map that to our timing, it has an impact on our Q3 and to some degree in our Q4 as well.

因此，如果您將其映射到我們的時間安排，它會對我們的第三季度產生影響，並且在某種程度上也會對我們的第四季度產生影響。

I'll just remind you though that we also said there was 2 dynamics. One is the optical sub components that you pointed out. The other one was integrated circuits that largely was due to China. Again there, it's second order effects in the supply chain that take a while to work their way through from China being opened up again to us being able to turn that into finished goods through our customers. So again, 100% timing based.

我只想提醒你，我們也說過有 2 個動態。一個是您指出的光學子組件。另一個是集成電路，主要歸功於中國。再一次，供應鏈中的二階效應需要一段時間才能從中國再次開放，以便我們能夠通過我們的客戶將其轉化為成品。再說一次，100% 基於時間。

ZR?

鋯？

ZR. So on the ZR side, Simon, I don't think our perspective has changed at all. We have shipped ZR into a number of customers around the globe, working through their evaluation cycles. As you're probably aware, the majority of the volume over the next season or so is going to be dominated by a couple of players.

ZR。所以在 ZR 方面，西蒙，我認為我們的觀點根本沒有改變。我們已將 ZR 運送給全球許多客戶，完成他們的評估週期。正如你可能知道的那樣，下個賽季左右的大部分音量將由幾個球員主導。

We are fully engaged in those players, and we expect to be successful there in those because we firmly believe we've got the plug in the market. But for us and for the industry, it's largely going to be a 2023 event from any materiality.

我們充分參與了這些參與者，我們希望在這些參與者中取得成功，因為我們堅信我們已經進入了市場。但對於我們和整個行業來說，無論從什麼角度來看，這在很大程度上都將是 2023 年的事件。

Simon thank you for the question, I appreciate it. And thank you, everyone, for taking the time today to connect with us. We look forward to connecting with everyone here at the balance of today and to the next several days. Thanks very much.

西蒙謝謝你的問題，我很感激。感謝大家今天抽出時間與我們聯繫。我們期待在今天和接下來的幾天內與這裡的每一個人聯繫。非常感謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。