康尼格拉食品 (CAG) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Conagra Brands First Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Melissa Napier, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

早安，歡迎參加康尼格拉品牌 2024 財年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁梅麗莎·納皮爾 (Melissa Napier)。

Good morning, and thanks joining us for the Conagra Brands First Quarter Fiscal 2024 Earnings Call. Sean Connolly, our CEO; and Dave Marberger, our CFO, will first discuss our business performance, and then we'll open up the call for Q&A.

早安，感謝您參加康尼格拉品牌 2024 財年第一季財報電話會議。肖恩·康諾利，我們的執行長；我們的財務長 Dave Marberger 將首先討論我們的業務績效，然後我們將開始問答環節。

On today's call, we will be making some forward-looking statements. And while we are making these statements in good faith, we do not have any guarantee about the results we will achieve. Descriptions of our risk factors are included in the documents we filed with the SEC.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將做出一些前瞻性聲明。雖然我們真誠地做出這些聲明，但我們對我們將取得的結果沒有任何保證。我們向 SEC 提交的文件中包含對我們風險因素的描述。

We will also be discussing some non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP and adjusted numbers refer to measures that exclude items management believes impact the comparability for the period referenced. Please see the earnings release for additional information on our comparability items. The GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations can be found in the earnings press release and the slides that we'll be reviewing on today's call, both of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

我們也將討論一些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些非公認會計原則和調整後的數字是指排除管理階層認為影響所參考期間可比較性的項目的衡量標準。有關我們的可比項目的更多信息，請參閱收益發布。公認會計原則與非公認會計原則的調節可以在收益新聞稿和我們將在今天的電話會議上審查的幻燈片中找到，兩者都可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

I'll now turn the call over to Sean.

我現在將電話轉給肖恩。

Thanks, Melissa. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our first quarter fiscal '24 earnings call. Let's start with what we want you to take away from our presentation shown here on Slide 5. At an industry-wide level, macro dynamics have clearly impacted consumer behavior across the board. I will cover this in more detail shortly, but ultimately, this behavior shift has elongated the volume recovery period across the industry, which is reflected in our Q1 top line results.

謝謝，梅麗莎。大家早安，感謝您參加我們的 24 財年第一季財報電話會議。讓我們從我們希望您從投影片 5 所示的簡報中獲得的內容開始。在整個產業層面，宏觀動態明顯影響消費者的行為。我很快就會更詳細地介紹這一點，但最終，這種行為轉變延長了整個產業的銷售恢復期，這反映在我們第一季的營收結果中。

As we've navigated these macro dynamics, I'm proud of the team for delivering another quarter of strong margin improvement and EPS growth. We also continued to strengthen our balance sheet improving our leverage ratio during the quarter while investing in our business and returning cash to shareholders. Our team's execution supported a strong supply chain recovery during the quarter, hitting pre-pandemic service levels as we exited Q1.

當我們應對這些宏觀動態時，我為我們的團隊在另一個季度實現了利潤率的強勁改善和每股盈餘的成長感到自豪。我們也持續加強資產負債表，提高本季的槓桿率，同時投資我們的業務並向股東返還現金。我們團隊的執行力支持了本季供應鏈的強勁復甦，在第一季結束時達到了疫情前的服務水準。

Looking towards the remainder of the year, we will work to drive volumes and top line growth through targeted and disciplined investments behind prudent merchandising and continued support for our strong innovation. Finally, we are reaffirming our guidance for fiscal '24, reflecting confidence in our plans, people and agility as we navigate a shifting consumer environment.

展望今年剩餘時間，我們將透過審慎銷售背後的有針對性和嚴格的投資以及對我們強大創新的持續支持，努力推動銷售和營收成長。最後，我們重申對 24 財年的指導，反映了我們在應對不斷變化的消費環境時對我們的計劃、人員和敏捷性的信心。

As I mentioned a moment ago, the timetable for volume recovery has been elongated across the industry due to near-term consumer behavior changes. After 3 years of unprecedented inflation, along with other macro dynamics, consumers have felt increased financial pressure and used a variety of strategies to stretch their balance sheet. This resulted in a near-term reprioritization of their typical purchase behaviors in order to make their budgets work. We've seen shifts like this before and expect these near-term changes in behavior to also be temporary. In fact, recent trends suggest this is already underway.

正如我剛才提到的，由於近期消費者行為的變化，整個產業的銷售恢復時間表被延長。經過三年前所未有的通貨膨脹以及其他宏觀動態，消費者感受到了越來越大的財務壓力，並使用各種策略來擴大資產負債表。這導致他們在近期重新調整了典型購買行為的優先順序，以便使預算發揮作用。我們以前見過這樣的轉變，並預期這些近期的行為變化也是暫時的。事實上，最近的趨勢表明這種情況已經在發生。

Let me provide a bit more color on the kinds of behavioral shifts we've observed. As you've seen for some time now, with the notable exception of summer travel, discretionary purchases have been down almost across the board. Consumers have also been actively reducing remnant household inventory from the pandemic.

讓我對我們觀察到的各種行為轉變提供更多的資訊。正如您一段時間以來所看到的，除了夏季旅行之外，可自由支配的購買幾乎全面下降。消費者也一直在積極減少疫情造成的家庭剩餘庫存。

Within food, convenience-oriented items, typically a top consumer priority have lagged as shoppers have turned to more hands-on food prep to get additional bang for their buck. And as they've done this, not surprisingly, they have shifted from meals for one to meals for many, even if not everyone at home at the same time to eat together.

在食品領域，通常消費者最優先考慮的以便利為導向的商品已經落後，因為購物者已經轉向更多親手準備食品，以獲得額外的實惠。當他們這樣做時，毫不奇怪的是，他們已經從一個人吃飯變成了多人吃飯，即使不是每個人都在同一時間一起吃飯。

And the last shift, I will mention is a reduction in wasted food and an increase in the use of leftovers. Collectively, these short-term behavior shifts act as a sort of cheat code to help these consumers spend within their means. Slide 8 demonstrates the elongated volume recovery across the industry. As you can see, through the 4-week period ending August 26, the entire peer group was showing volume performance within a very tight band with Conagra in the middle of the pack. As I mentioned a minute ago, more recent trends are showing the first signs of improved performance.

我要提到的最後一個轉變是減少食物浪費和增加剩菜的使用。總的來說，這些短期行為轉變就像是一種作弊代碼，幫助這些消費者量入為出。幻燈片 8 展示了整個行業的長期銷售復甦。正如您所看到的，在截至 8 月 26 日的 4 週時間內，整個同行組的成交量表現都在非常緊張的範圍內，其中康尼格拉處於中間位置。正如我一分鐘前提到的，最近的趨勢正在顯示出績效改善的初步跡象。

With that backdrop, let's dive into our results shown on Slide 9. As you can see, in the quarter, we delivered organic net sales of approximately $2.9 billion, which is down slightly compared to last year as a result of the slower volume recovery we've discussed. Adjusted gross margin of 27.6% was up 272 basis points from last year. Adjusted operating margin of 16.7% was up 297 basis points compared to last year and adjusted earnings per share of $0.66 increased almost 16% versus last year.

在此背景下，讓我們深入研究幻燈片9 中顯示的結果。如您所見，本季度我們實現了約29 億美元的有機淨銷售額，與去年相比略有下降，因為我們的銷量恢復速度較慢。討論過。調整後毛利率為 27.6%，較去年上升 272 個基點。調整後營業利潤率為 16.7%，比去年增加了 297 個基點，調整後每股收益為 0.66 美元，比去年增加了近 16%。

Diving further into our top line performance by retail domain, you can see on Slide 10, that sales in our Staples domain were flat compared to the prior year. As consumers shift toward more stretchable meals, our staples categories such as canned Chili and canned tomatoes are well positioned and have gained unit share compared to last year.

進一步深入了解零售領域的營收表現，您可以在投影片 10 中看到，史泰博領域的銷售額與前一年持平。隨著消費者轉向更具彈性的膳食，我們的罐裝辣椒和罐裝西紅柿等主食類別處於有利位置，與去年相比，單位份額有所增加。

Despite the macro headwinds, our snacks domain has continued to grow, as shown on Slide 11. We're building unit share as consumers continue to respond positively to our microwave popcorn and ready-to-eat pudding and gel brands.

儘管存在宏觀阻力，我們的零食領域仍在持續成長，如幻燈片 11 所示。隨著消費者繼續對我們的微波爐爆米花、即食布丁和凝膠品牌做出積極反應，我們正在擴大單位份額。

Looking at Slide 12, you can see that our frozen domain has been the most significantly impacted by recent shifts in consumer behavior particularly in areas like single-serve meals, given the headwinds we discussed a moment ago. As we look at the frozen domain, it's worth noting a few key points.

看看投影片 12，您可以看到，考慮到我們剛才討論的不利因素，我們的冷凍領域受到近期消費者行為變化的影響最為顯著，特別是在單份餐點等領域。當我們查看凍結域時，值得注意一些關鍵點。

First, despite the recent impact on volume, we continue to gain unit share in important frozen categories like single-serve meals. This dynamic demonstrates the relative strength and strong position of our brands.

首先，儘管最近銷量受到影響，但我們在單份餐等重要冷凍類別中的單位份額繼續增加。這種動態證明了我們品牌的相對實力和強勢地位。

Second, the year-over-year performance figures do not properly represent the broader trend within frozen food. In fact, if you look over a 40-year period, Conagra's frozen retail sales have increased 22%.

其次，年比業績數據並不能正確代表冷凍食品的整體趨勢。事實上，如果回顧 40 年的時間，康尼格拉的冷凍零售額成長了 22%。

Frozen meals has been one of the fastest-growing categories in in-home consumption over the past 40 years. Its 4% CAGR is in the top tier of foods growing in at-home consumption. This expansion has been fueled by the long-term sustained consumer demand for convenience as well as the addition of innovation and quality ingredients. This 40-year trend demonstrates the critical role that frozen plays in providing convenient, high-quality foods for every occasion, which consumers have come to increasingly rely on. This is central to why we believe the current softness is temporary.

過去 40 年來，冷凍食品一直是家庭消費中成長最快的類別之一。其 4% 的複合年增長率在家庭消費食品成長中名列前茅。消費者對便利性的長期持續需求以及創新和優質原料的增加推動了這種擴張。這一 40 年的趨勢表明，冷凍食品在為各種場合提供方便、優質的食品方面發揮關鍵作用，消費者對此越來越依賴。這就是為什麼我們認為當前的疲軟只是暫時的。

Turning to Slide 14. I'm pleased to share that we continue to advance our supply chain initiatives during the quarter, allowing us to return our service performance back to pre-pandemic levels. Our productivity initiatives remain on track, and we plan to maintain and capitalize on this strong recovery during the rest of fiscal '24.

轉向投影片 14。我很高興地告訴大家，我們在本季繼續推進我們的供應鏈計劃，使我們能夠將服務績效恢復到大流行前的水平。我們的生產力計劃仍處於正軌，我們計劃在 24 財年剩餘時間內維持並利用這一強勁復甦。

That's a key piece of our action plan for the remainder of the year, as outlined on Slide 15. In addition to our ongoing supply chain execution, we will continue to focus on executing our Conagra Way playbook as we make targeted and disciplined investments behind our brands. Help protect share and drive the top line, we're focused on investing behind quality, high ROI merchandising and A&P to support our brand. We'll also continue to prioritize reducing our debt and improving our net leverage ratio.

正如幻燈片15 所述，這是我們今年剩餘時間行動計劃的關鍵部分。除了我們持續的供應鏈執行之外，我們將繼續專注於執行我們的Conagra Way 行動手冊，因為我們在我們的業務背後進行了有針對性和嚴格的投資。品牌。為了幫助保護市場份額並提高收入，我們專注於在品質、高投資回報率的銷售和 A&P 方面進行投資，以支持我們的品牌。我們也將繼續優先考慮減少債務和提高淨槓桿。

We are reaffirming our fiscal '24 guidance that we shared last quarter, including organic net sales growth of approximately 1% compared to fiscal '23. We adjusted operating margin of 16% to 16.5% and adjusted EPS between $2.70 to $2.75. Overall, we remain confident in our plans, people and agility as we continue to navigate this shifting consumer environment.

我們重申上季分享的 24 財年指引，包括與 23 財年相比有機淨銷售額成長約 1%。我們將營業利潤率調整為 16% 至 16.5%，並將每股盈餘調整為 2.70 美元至 2.75 美元。總體而言，隨著我們繼續應對不斷變化的消費者環境，我們對我們的計劃、人員和敏捷性仍然充滿信心。

With that, I'll pass the call over to Dave to cover the financials in more detail.

這樣，我會將電話轉給戴夫，以更詳細地介紹財務狀況。

Thanks, Sean, and good morning, everyone. Slide 18 highlights our results from the quarter. Overall, we are pleased with our profit and cash flow delivery and remain confident in our ability to achieve our full year guidance targets.

謝謝肖恩，大家早安。幻燈片 18 重點介紹了我們本季的業績。總體而言，我們對我們的利潤和現金流交付感到滿意，並對我們實現全年指導目標的能力充滿信心。

In Q1, net sales were $2.9 billion, reflecting a 0.3% decrease in organic net sales, driven primarily from the elongated recovery of volumes due to the industry-wide slowdown in consumption that Sean discussed earlier.

第一季度，淨銷售額為 29 億美元，反映出有機淨銷售額下降 0.3%，這主要是由於 Sean 先前討論的全行業消費放緩導致銷量長期復甦所致。

Gross margin recovery was a key priority for us in fiscal '23, and we delivered another strong result in Q1. Adjusted gross profit increased by 10.9% in the quarter, primarily from the pricing implemented in the prior year and strong productivity, which more than offset the negative impacts of cost of goods sold inflation and unfavorable operating leverage. Adjusted gross margin increased 272 basis points, and adjusted EBITDA increased 12.1%, largely driven by the increase in adjusted gross profit.

毛利率恢復是我們 23 財年的首要任務，我們在第一季再次取得了強勁的業績。本季調整後毛利成長 10.9%，主要得益於上一年實施的定價和強勁的生產力，足以抵銷銷售成本通膨和不利營運槓桿的負面影響。調整後毛利率成長 272 個基點，調整後 EBITDA 成長 12.1%，主要受到調整後毛利成長的推動。

Slide 19 provides a breakdown of our net sales. The 0.3% decrease in organic net sales was driven by a 6.6% decrease in volume, which was partially offset by a 6.3% improvement in price mix, a result of fiscal '23's inflation-driven pricing actions. A small benefit from the impact of foreign exchange contributed to reported net sales coming in flat for the quarter.

投影片 19 提供了我們淨銷售額的細目。有機淨銷售額下降 0.3%，原因是銷量下降 6.6%，但價格組合改善 6.3% 部分抵消了這一下降，這是 23 財年通貨膨脹驅動的定價行動的結果。匯率影響帶來的小幅收益導致本季淨銷售額持平。

Slide 20 shows the top line performance for each segment in Q1. Our Grocery & Snacks segment achieved net sales growth of 1.2% in the quarter. We gained dollar share in snacking categories, including seeds and microwave popcorn as well as in Staples categories, including Chili and canned meat. As Sean discussed earlier, our Refrigerated & Frozen segment was the most impacted by recent consumer behavior shifts, with net sales down 4.6% in the quarter.

投影片 20 顯示了第一季每個細分市場的營收表現。我們的雜貨和零食部門本季淨銷售額成長 1.2%。我們在零食類別（包括種子和微波爐爆米花）以及主食類別（包括辣椒和罐頭肉）中獲得了美元份額。正如 Sean 之前討論的那樣，我們的冷藏和冷凍部門受近期消費者行為變化的影響最大，本季淨銷售額下降了 4.6%。

Our International and Foodservice segments combined are slightly below 20% of our net sales. Both are important to Conagra and contributed meaningfully to growth this quarter. Our International segment delivered year-over-year volume growth in addition to improved price mix, which helped support strong organic net sales growth of 8.2% during the quarter.

我們的國際和餐飲服務部門合計略低於淨銷售額的 20%。兩者對康尼格拉都很重要，並對本季的成長做出了有意義的貢獻。我們的國際部門除了改善價格組合外，還實現了銷量同比增長，這有助於支持本季 8.2% 的強勁有機淨銷售額增長。

Our two largest international regions, Mexico and Canada delivered double-digit organic net sales growth over prior year. We also saw low single-digit volume growth in Mexico, which contributed to the segment's overall positive volumes. For the remainder of the year, we expect volume growth to continue in international.

我們最大的兩個國際地區墨西哥和加拿大比上一年實現了兩位數的有機淨銷售額成長。我們也看到墨西哥的銷售量呈現低個位數成長，這有助於該細分市場的整體銷售成長。在今年剩餘時間內，我們預計國際銷售將持續成長。

Our Foodservice segment delivered 5.2% net sales growth in Q1 from strong price mix, and we expect to see positive net sales growth in Foodservice for the fiscal year. Foodservice also delivered a strong gross margin in Q1 versus a year ago due to the reduction of supply chain disruption costs incurred in the prior year. This benefit is not expected to extend beyond Q1. Our Foodservice segment supplies a diverse set of clients beyond restaurants, including health care, travel and leisure and educational institutions, and we are well positioned to compete in these markets.

由於強勁的價格組合，我們的食品服務部門在第一季實現了 5.2% 的淨銷售額成長，我們預計本財年食品服務部門的淨銷售額將出現正成長。由於前一年發生的供應鏈中斷成本減少，餐飲服務第一季的毛利率也較去年同期強勁。預計這一優勢不會延續到第一季之後。我們的餐飲服務部門為餐廳以外的多元化客戶提供服務，包括醫療保健、旅遊休閒和教育機構，我們在這些市場的競爭中處於有利地位。

Slide 21 highlights our adjusted operating margin bridge. We are pleased to have delivered a fourth consecutive quarter of strong gross margin improvement, up 272 basis points in Q1.

幻燈片 21 突顯了我們調整後的營業利潤橋樑。我們很高興毛利率連續第四個季度實現強勁成長，第一季成長了 272 個基點。

We drove a 4 percentage point improvement from price mix during the quarter. We also realized a 1.8 percentage point benefit from continued progress on our supply chain productivity initiatives along with the wrap of some supply chain disruptions in the prior year. These price and productivity benefits were slightly offset by cost of goods sold inflation, a margin headwind of 3.1%. Those factors, combined with small year-over-year favorability in A&P and SG&A, drove the 297 basis point improvement in operating margin for the quarter.

本季我們的價格組合改善了 4 個百分點。我們還實現了 1.8 個百分點的收益，這得益於我們供應鏈生產力計劃的持續進展以及上一年一些供應鏈中斷的結束。這些價格和生產力方面的優勢被銷售成本通膨（利潤率逆風 3.1%）略微抵銷。這些因素，加上 A&P 和 SG&A 同比較小的好感度，推動本季營業利潤率提高 297 個基點。

Slide 22 details our margin performance by segment for Q1. Overall, continued progress on our productivity initiatives and positive price mix contributed to an increase in adjusted operating profit and adjusted operating margin across all four operating segments. It is worth noting that our Refrigerated & Frozen segment continued its very strong operating profit and margin recovery in the quarter with adjusted operating margin improving 294 basis points versus a year ago.

投影片 22 詳細介紹了我們第一季按細分市場劃分的利潤率表現。總體而言，我們的生產力計劃的持續進展和積極的價格組合促進了所有四個營運部門的調整後營業利潤和調整後營業利潤率的增加。值得注意的是，我們的冷藏和冷凍部門在本季度繼續保持非常強勁的營業利潤和利潤率復甦，調整後的營業利潤率比去年同期提高了 294 個基點。

Our Q1 adjusted EPS increased to $0.66, representing a 15.8% increase over the prior year. Higher adjusted gross profit and slightly lower A&P and adjusted SG&A were the positive contributors to our adjusted EPS performance in the quarter. These positives were partially offset by lower pension and postretirement nonservice income, decreased equity method investment earnings and higher interest expense.

第一季調整後每股收益增至 0.66 美元，較上年增長 15.8%。較高的調整後毛利以及略低的 A&P 和調整後 SG&A 為本季調整後 EPS 業績做出了積極貢獻。這些正面因素被退休金和退休後非服務收入減少、權益法投資收益減少以及利息支出增加部分抵消。

Slide 24 includes our key balance sheet and cash flow metrics. At the end of the quarter, our net leverage ratio was 3.55x down from the end of fiscal '23. We will continue to prioritize reducing our debt and lowering our net leverage ratio in fiscal '24.

投影片 24 包括我們的關鍵資產負債表和現金流指標。截至本季末，我們的淨槓桿比率比 2023 財年末下降了 3.55 倍。在 24 財年，我們將繼續優先考慮減少債務和降低淨槓桿率。

Net cash flow from operations increased $180 million in the quarter, primarily driven by reduced investment in inventory versus the prior year. While CapEx investment increased by approximately $20 million, Q1 free cash flow more than doubled from a year ago, coming in at $300 million. This strong free cash flow enabled us to pay down approximately $130 million of net short-term debt while also funding $157 million for the Q1 dividend, highlighting our focus on balanced capital allocation. We did not repurchase any shares in the quarter as we continue to prioritize paying down debt.

本季營運淨現金流增加 1.8 億美元，主要是由於庫存投資較上年減少。雖然資本支出投資增加了約 2,000 萬美元，但第一季自由現金流比一年前增加了一倍多，達到 3 億美元。強勁的自由現金流使我們能夠償還約 1.3 億美元的短期淨債務，同時也為第一季度股息提供 1.57 億美元的資金，凸顯了我們對平衡資本配置的關注。我們在本季沒有回購任何股票，因為我們繼續優先考慮償還債務。

As mentioned, we are reaffirming our guidance for fiscal '24, given the strong Q1 profit and margin performance and the confidence in our investment plans year-to-go as we continue to navigate a shifting consumer environment.

如前所述，鑑於第一季強勁的利潤和利潤率表現以及我們對未來一年投資計畫的信心，我們將重申對 24 財年的指導，因為我們將繼續應對不斷變化的消費環境。

Slide 25 outlines our current fiscal '24 expectations for our three key metrics, including: Organic net sales growth of approximately 1% over fiscal '23; adjusted operating margin between 16% to 16.5%; and adjusted EPS between $2.70 and $2.75. Let's take a closer look at how we expect to achieve that guidance during Q2 in the back half of fiscal '24 shown on Slide 26.

投影片 25 概述了我們目前對 24 財年三個關鍵指標的預期，包括： 與 23 財年相比，有機淨銷售額成長約 1%；調整後的營業利益率在 16% 至 16.5% 之間；調整後每股收益在 2.70 美元至 2.75 美元之間。讓我們仔細看看我們預計如何在幻燈片 26 所示的 24 財年後半段第二季度實現這一指導。

During Q2, we expect to continue seeing low single-digit organic net sales decline, but volume decline should improve versus Q1 as we wrap inflation-driven pricing actions from fiscal '23. As Sean mentioned, we will redeploy some of our strong gross profit into strategic investments behind quality, high ROI merchandising and increased A&P to support our brands. We also expect operating margins to be down from Q1 with adjusted EPS approximately flat to Q1.

在第二季度，我們預計將繼續看到較低的個位數有機淨銷售額下降，但隨著我們結束23 財年通膨驅動的定價行動，與第一季相比，銷量下降應該會有所改善。正如 Sean 所提到的，我們將把部分強勁的毛利重新部署到策略性投資中，以支持我們的品牌，支持高品質、高投資報酬率的銷售和增加廣告費用。我們也預期營業利潤率將低於第一季，調整後每股盈餘與第一季大致持平。

In the back half of the year, we expect volume trends to return to year-over-year growth, which will help drive low single-digit organic net sales growth. We expect our trade and A&P investments to be higher than the first half, with margins flat to Q2 and second half fiscal '24 adjusted EPS approximately flat to the same period in fiscal '23.

今年下半年，我們預計銷售趨勢將恢復年成長，這將有助於推動較低的個位數有機淨銷售額成長。我們預計我們的貿易和廣告及生產投資將高於上半年，利潤率與第二季度持平，24 財年下半年調整後每股收益與 23 財年同期大致持平。

That concludes our prepared remarks for today's call. Thank you for listening. I'll now pass it back to the operator to open the line for questions.

我們為今天的電話會議所準備的演講到此結束。感謝您的聆聽。現在我會將其傳回接線員以打開提問線路。

We will now begin the question-and-answer session (Operator Instructions) And today's first question comes from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

我們現在開始問答環節（操作員說明） 今天的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Andrew Lazar。

Sean, I realize, as you talked about a lot of near-term sort of macro dynamics impacting sort of the industry volume recovery right now. And it's logical that ramping up the marketing investment in the second half now that service levels have returned to normal should logically start to improve volume trends sequentially. And I assume your forecast as best you can.

肖恩，我意識到，正如您談到的許多近期宏觀動態正在影響目前行業銷售的復甦一樣。既然服務水準已經恢復正常，下半年加大行銷投資應該會開始依序改善銷售趨勢，這是合乎邏輯的。我盡可能地假設你的預測。

But I guess my question is, do you think you've given yourself enough latitude to sort of do what's needed while also being able to reiterate the full year guidance on both the top line, which assumes a healthy positive inflection in the second half and on EPS, given the year is now more back-end weighted there as well?

但我想我的問題是，你是否認為你已經給自己足夠的自由度來完成需要做的事情，同時也能夠重申全年的營收指引，假設下半年會出現健康的積極變化，就每股收益而言，考慮到今年現在也有更多的後端權重？

Andrew, yes, I believe the answer is yes, we have. Like others, we're essentially now putting our emphasis on the back half where we expect to have the most impact. If you comp your up and look at the back half between more favorable comps, increased investment, a very strong innovation slate and a move back toward a more typical consumer behavior, we do expect meaningful top line progress in H2.

安德魯，是的，我相信答案是肯定的，我們有。和其他人一樣，我們現在基本上把重點放在我們希望產生最大影響的後半部。如果你比較一下後半部分，看看更有利的比較、增加的投資、非常強大的創新板和回歸更典型的消費者行為之間的關係，我們確實預計下半年會出現有意義的收入進展。

And with productivity strong and excellent margin progress over the past several quarters and a good start to the year at EPS, we feel good about the profit call for the year even with that added investment. I probably also will give a nod to our Foodservice and International teams for the excellent job they're doing, working their plans.

由於過去幾季生產力強勁、利潤率取得良好進展，以及今年每股收益的良好開局，即使增加了投資，我們對今年的利潤預測仍感到滿意。我可能也會向我們的餐飲服務和國際團隊表示敬意，感謝他們在執行計劃方面所做的出色工作。

And then I guess on the targeted and sort of disciplined spend. I assume much of this goes to the frozen arena. I guess, what form will this take like more specifically? And I guess, how do you ensure it will be disciplined? And I guess what are you seeing competitively?

然後我猜測有針對性的、有紀律的支出。我認為其中大部分都流向了冰凍競技場。我想，更具體地說，這會採取什麼形式？我想，你如何確保它受到紀律處分？我想你在競爭中看到了什麼？

Great question. As you point out with our supply chain now, clicking on all cylinders, we're once again in a position where we can selectively add promotional activity to drive sales. As I've said before, selectively means highly incremental, high ROI events at critical calendar windows like the holidays as an example. So Frozen is certainly in the mix, but so are other categories.

很好的問題。正如您現在在我們的供應鏈中指出的那樣，點擊所有氣缸，我們再次處於可以選擇性地添加促銷活動以推動銷售的位置。正如我之前所說，選擇性意味著在關鍵日曆視窗（例如假期）進行高度增量、高投資回報率的事件。所以《冰雪奇緣》肯定是其中之一，但其他類別也是如此。

Just to give you some perspective, and I'll give you more on this in just a minute so you have the detail. In Q1, only 21% of our sales were on promotion, which was below the peer group and also below the pre-pandemic baseline. So if you look at Q1, the last couple of years, not this year, but the last couple of years, Conagra was around 18% of our volume was on promo and the pre-pandemic baseline, the number was 24%.

只是為了向您提供一些觀點，我將在一分鐘內向您提供更多相關信息，以便您了解詳細信息。第一季度，我們的銷售額中只有 21% 是促銷活動，低於同行，也低於疫情前的基準。因此，如果你看看第一季度，過去幾年，不是今年，而是過去幾年，康尼格拉大約有18% 的銷量是促銷品，而在大流行前的基線上，這個數字是24% 。

So this year, in Q1, we were at 21%. So we're still below the baseline, and we've got some room to pick our spots and invest smartly to engage further with consumers. But let me be clear, we are not talking about deep discount, low ROI promotional activity like you might remember from Conagra 10, 15 years ago. That is not part of our playbook.

今年第一季度，我們的比例為 21%。因此，我們仍然低於基線，我們還有一些空間來選擇我們的位置並明智地投資以進一步與消費者互動。但我要澄清的是，我們不是在談論大折扣、低投資回報率的促銷活動，就像您可能還記得 10、15 年前的康尼格拉那樣。這不是我們劇本的一部分。

And our next question today comes from Ken Goldman at JPMorgan.

今天我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼。

Sean, to Andrew's question right there, one of the drivers you mentioned for the second half was, I think, maybe a little bit of a directional return to more typical consumer behavior. I just wanted to know if we could hear a little bit more about which elements of this behavior maybe you expect to improve, what will drive it? Or is the comment more just -- look, we have more -- we have less pricing. We have more trade, we have more A&P, more new products. So that altogether will help our business. I just wanted to get a little bit more color there, if I could.

肖恩，對於安德魯的問題，你提到的下半年的驅動因素之一，我認為，可能有點定向回歸到更典型的消費者行為。我只是想知道我們是否可以更多地了解您希望改進這種行為的哪些要素，什麼會推動它？或者評論是否更公正——看，我們有更多——我們有更少的定價。我們有更多的貿易，我們有更多的A&P，更多的新產品。所以這完全有助於我們的業務。如果可以的話，我只是想在那裡多一點顏色。

Yes. Ken, it's a mix of all the above. The comps are clearly much more favorable. We're clearly going to have some stronger merch investment in the back half. And we've got A&P focused on our largest brands with good margins. So those are all well positioned to have an impact.

是的。肯，這是以上所有內容的混合體。比較顯然更有利。顯然，我們將在下半年進行更強勁的商品投資。我們的 A&P 專注於利潤豐厚的最大品牌。因此，這些都能夠產生影響。

But I think the key here is this consumer behavior shift. And I do think when you see all the competitors in such a tight bandwidth, which is frankly a tighter bandwidth than I'm even accustomed to seeing. You know it's a macro dynamic. And the way to think about what we saw in the first quarter with respect to the behavior over the summer was it was this paradoxical combination of selective splurging and broad-based belt tightening.

但我認為這裡的關鍵是消費者行為的轉變。我確實認為，當你看到所有競爭對手的頻寬都如此緊張時，坦白說，這比我習慣看到的頻寬還要緊張。你知道這是一個宏觀動態。思考我們在第一季所看到的夏季行為的方式是，選擇性揮霍和廣泛緊縮政策的矛盾結合。

So as an example, consumers may have simply said, I'm taking that summer trip and it's not up for debate. And then at the same time, said, "I'm going to change some things up to create an offset. And so in our line of work, it's what we call compensating behavior. But one of the other things we know about consumer habits and practices is that they are very hard to change long term. So these shifts tend to be temporary tactics that people use to get through a period of time when they've committed more of their cash to something else. And I think the summer travel example is illustrative of what I'm talking about there.

舉個例子，消費者可能只是簡單地說，我要參加那個夏天的旅行，這是沒有爭議的。然後同時說道，「我將改變一些事情以產生抵消。所以在我們的工作中，這就是我們所說的補償行為。但我們了解的關於消費者習慣的其他事情之一和做法是，它們很難長期改變。因此，這些轉變往往是人們用來度過一段時間的臨時策略，因為他們將更多的現金投入到了其他事情上。我認為夏季旅行示例說明了我在那裡談論的內容。

And so this is a bit of a different animal than what we would call normal elasticity effects because normal elasticity effects a really brand level elasticity effects that are consumer judgments about the value of a particular brand versus another close-in alternative following a price increase. These macro behavior shifts are a bit of a different animal. Here, the consumer is not passing judgment on the value of a specific brand following a price increase, rather, they're temporarily reranking how they prioritize entire categories in order to live within their means for a period of time.

因此，這與我們所說的正常彈性效應有點不同，因為正常彈性會影響真正的品牌水平彈性效應，即消費者在價格上漲後對特定品牌與另一個接近替代品的價值的判斷。這些宏觀行為的轉變有點不同。在這裡，消費者並不是在價格上漲後對特定品牌的價值做出判斷，而是暫時重新排列整個類別的優先順序，以便在一段時間內量入為出。

So why does it matter to understand the difference between this versus normal elasticity? Well, in our experience, it's because behavioral shifts at a category level tend to be shorter in duration. And it's -- a simple way to think about it is consumers are creatures of habit. So it's very difficult for them to deprioritize things like convenience benefit.

那麼為什麼了解這種彈性與正常彈性之間的差異很重要呢？嗯，根據我們的經驗，這是因為類別層級的行為轉變往往持續時間較短。一個簡單的思考方式是，消費者就是習慣的產物。因此，他們很難取消諸如便利福利之類的事情的優先順序。

So this is One of the key reasons we expect these shifts to be temporary. They have been in the past, and that's what we expect again. And it's also why we're really loading up our resources in the back half where we think the market conditions will be much more favorable to driving the kind of impact we're seeking.

因此，這是我們預期這些轉變是暫時的關鍵原因之一。它們已經成為過去，這也是我們所期待的。這也是我們在下半年投入資源的原因，我們認為市場條件將更有利於推動我們尋求的影響力。

our next question today comes from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.

今天我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的帕梅拉·考夫曼。

You talked about your plans to step up A&P and trade spend over the rest of the year. Just wanted to get a sense for if this was kind of consistent -- the amount was consistent with your initial expectations heading into the year? Or if you're now planning for greater reinvestment compared to your initial plans given volume trends?

您談到了今年剩餘時間增加廣告費用和貿易支出的計劃。只是想了解一下這是否一致——該金額是否與您今年的最初預期一致？或者，考慮到數量趨勢，您現在是否計劃比最初的計劃進行更多的再投資？

It's fire, Pam. It's obviously -- the consumer dynamic in the first quarter was tougher than we planned for. We do think the conditions, the macro conditions will be more favorable in the back half and we're in a fortunate position where we got off to a strong start in the year on profitability. So we've got some room to invest back. So we're talking about a higher investment posture on March, in particular, in the back half of the year as now that we've got the supply chain working.

著火了，帕姆。顯然，第一季的消費者動態比我們計劃的要嚴峻。我們確實認為下半年的情況、宏觀條件將會更加有利，我們處於一個幸運的位置，我們今年在盈利能力方面取得了良好的開局。所以我們還有一些投資空間。因此，我們正在談論 3 月的更高投資態勢，特別是在今年下半年，因為我們已經讓供應鏈正常運作。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess, do you feel like there are areas in the portfolio where you've taken too much pricing and do you envision a scenario where pricing growth turns negative?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我想，您是否覺得投資組合中的某些領域採取了過多的定價，並且您是否設想了定價成長變為負值的情況？

Yes. I don't really see that, Pam. The volume impact we are seeing, and frankly, the peers in the space are really not a function of individual brand level prices and a consumer judgment that it's much more of this macro thing where they're reprioritizing entire categories and consumer domains in order to stretch their budget short term.

是的。我真的不明白，潘姆。我們看到的銷售影響，坦白說，該領域的同行實際上並不是單一品牌價格和消費者判斷的函數，這更多的是宏觀問題，他們重新確定整個類別和消費者領域的優先順序，以便短期內擴大預算。

There was very little interaction in our portfolio with private label. There are some categories in our portfolio, albeit very few that are more pass-through in nature and are more prone to a rollback in price if the if the key ingredient cost deflates. So products like Reddi Wip, where you've got basically dairy in there, products like our sausage business or our hotdog business where it's pretty much a particular meat block that's in there. Those products kinds of products tend to move with the commodity.

我們的產品組合中與自有品牌的互動很少。我們的投資組合中有一些類別，儘管很少有本質上更具傳遞性的類別，如果關鍵成分成本下降，價格更容易回落。像 Reddi Wip 這樣的產品，裡面基本上都是乳製品，像我們的香腸業務或熱狗業務這樣的產品，裡面幾乎都是一種特殊的肉塊。這些產品種類往往會隨著商品一起移動。

But for most of our portfolio, a, we haven't seen that kind of singular judgment around the value of the product being too expensive, and we just haven't seen any cost basis for rolling back price in terms of deflation. We're still net-net in an inflationary position.

但對於我們大多數的投資組合來說，我們還沒有看到對產品價值過於昂貴的單一判斷，而且我們還沒有看到在通貨緊縮方面降低價格的任何成本基礎。我們仍處於通貨膨脹狀態。

And our next question today comes from David Palmer at Evercore.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Palmer。

It looks like you're assuming 2% to 3% organic sales growth in the second half as implied by the guidance. I guess what gives you the most confidence that you can get there? What are the key improvement areas that we would see?

正如指導意見所暗示的那樣，您似乎假設下半年有機銷售額將增長 2% 到 3%。我想是什麼讓您最有信心能夠實現這一目標？我們會看到哪些關鍵的改進領域？

I would imagine frozen entrees would be one, but perhaps you can give a sense of where we should be expecting the most energy and improvement going into the second half?

我想冷凍主菜就是其中之一，但也許你可以讓我們了解下半場我們應該在哪裡期待最多的能量和改進？

Sure, Dave. Let me hit that. we're going to focus, as we always do, on our frozen and snacks businesses because those are the centerpiece of our strategy. But we also do have businesses within our portfolio now that are typically reliable contributors that are working really well in terms of meal creation, simple meals and things like that in our staples business, which tends to be a good mix.

當然，戴夫。讓我打那個。我們將一如既往地專注於我們的冷凍和零食業務，因為這些是我們策略的核心。但現在我們的投資組合中也確實有一些業務，這些業務通常是可靠的貢獻者，在膳食製作、簡單膳食以及我們的主食業務中的類似業務方面運作得非常好，這往往是一個很好的組合。

But I think between an improving consumer environment more aggressive but smart and selective merchandising environment, a really good innovation slate and then A&P on some of our biggest businesses, not to mention, we've got very favorable comps on some of our big businesses in the back half of the year. I think all of that gives us a line of sight to delivering the kind of numbers that you just quoted. Dave, do you want to add anything to that?

但我認為，在不斷改善的消費者環境、更積極但更明智和選擇性的銷售環境、真正良好的創新名單以及我們一些最大業務的A&P 之間，更不用說，我們在一些大業務上獲得了非常有利的競爭下半年。我認為所有這些都讓我們有機會提供您剛才引用的那種數字。戴夫，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yes. Just a little more color on the disruptions in the prior year, which were mostly second half last year, Dave. We had a fire at our Jackson plant, which significantly impacted our frozen fish business. Obviously, Lent is the big time for that. So we'll be in a much better position this year on that. We had canning issues in our beans and Chili business second half last year. And then as you remember, we had the canned meat recall, which impacted Q3 and Q4. So more specifically, we should see strong improvement on those categories.

是的。戴夫，對前一年的中斷（主要是去年下半年）進行更多的描述。我們的傑克遜工廠發生火災，嚴重影響了我們的冷凍魚業務。顯然，四旬齋是最重要的時刻。因此，今年我們在這方面將處於更好的位置。去年下半年，我們的豆類和辣椒業務出現了罐頭問題。然後，如您所知，我們召回了罐頭肉，這影響了第三季和第四季。更具體地說，我們應該會看到這些類別的強勁改進。

And one other point I'll make, too, David, because you brought up our frozen business. It's not an inconsequential point that one slide in our prepared remarks today that showed the 40-year trend on frozen. It is literally not counting commodity category like frozen fruit, it is in the top 2, I think, of packaged goods in terms of long-term growth in the category, and it's been particularly strong in the last 6 or 7 years as we've driven innovation.

大衛，我還要指出另一點，因為你提到了我們的冷凍業務。我們今天準備的演講中的一張幻燈片顯示了 40 年來冷凍食品的趨勢，這並不是一個無關緊要的問題。從字面上看，這還不包括冷凍水果等商品類別，我認為，就該類別的長期增長而言，它在包裝商品中名列前茅，而且在過去六七年里特別強勁，因為我們「我們推動了創新。

So we remain incredibly bullish on our frozen business. And by the way, our unit share in frozen has grown consistently over the last 7 or so years. And that included Q1. I saw it, David, you put printed this morning and thought we were losing share in our frozen meals business. That is actually not the case. Even with the consumer environment, the way it is right now, consumers making some of these trade-offs, we grew our unit share in our frozen meals business once again. And that is with some additional promotional activity from a larger competitor in the space during Q1. But frankly, that had no impact on us on a national basis. It impacted a different competitor in the space that happens to be a value-oriented play, but had no impact on Conagra where we again gained unit share in our frozen meals business.

因此，我們仍然非常看好我們的冷凍業務。順便說一句，我們的冷凍食品單位份額在過去 7 年左右的時間裡持續增長。其中包括第一季。我看到了，大衛，你今天早上把它印出來，並認為我們正在失去冷凍食品業務的份額。事實上並非如此。即使在目前的消費環境下，消費者做出了一些權衡，我們在冷凍食品業務中的單位份額再次成長。這是第一季該領域較大競爭對手所進行的一些額外促銷活動的結果。但坦白說，這對我們全國範圍內沒有影響。它影響了該領域的另一個競爭對手，而該領域恰好是一個以價值為導向的遊戲，但對康尼格拉沒有影響，我們再次獲得了冷凍食品業務的單位份額。

Thanks for that and we're certainly seeing that promotional activity. And I'll pass it on.

感謝您的支持，我們確實看到了這項促銷活動。我會把它傳遞下去。

Our next question today comes from Max Gumport with BNP Paribas.

今天我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Max Gumport。

I wanted to come back to the commentary around the improved outlook for the second half, the low single-digit organic sales growth. And I hear what you're saying, but a lot of the factors that you've called out feels like they would have been knowable a couple of months ago in terms of the easier comps and the innovation and the advertising and lapping the supply chain disruption.

我想回到關於下半年前景改善的評論，即較低的個位數有機銷售成長。我聽到你在說什麼，但你提到的許多因素感覺在幾個月前就已經知道了，例如更容易的比較、創新、廣告和供應鏈擾亂。

So I'm just curious what's changed over the last couple of months that's given you this increased confidence in the second half because before it sounded like we were going to see organic sales would be strongest in the first quarter and then work its way down.

所以我只是好奇過去幾個月發生了什麼變化，這讓您對下半年的信心增強，因為之前聽起來我們將看到第一季的有機銷售最為強勁，然後逐漸下降。

Sometimes when you run in businesses like this and you're servicing consumers, you take what the field gives you. And I think what we're saying is in Q1, the consumer environment is was more challenged. People were trying to create these offsets to cover expenditures that they were determined to make over the course of the summer. And we do believe that the consumer environment is going to be more favorable. There will be a bit of pent-up demand here for some of the things that people have traded out of as they've created these kind of short-term hacks to make their household balance sheet work.

有時，當你經營這樣的企業並為消費者提供服務時，你會得到這個領域給你的東西。我認為我們所說的是在第一季度，消費者環境面臨更大的挑戰。人們試圖創造這些抵消額來支付他們決定在夏季進行的支出。我們確實相信消費環境將會更有利。人們為了維持家庭資產負債表的運作而創造了這些短期駭客手段，因此對某些東西進行了交易，從而產生了一些被壓抑的需求。

And having the supply chain in the position it's in and getting off to a strong start on profit and having the ability to invest more, we think these are high ROI investments that are going to enable us to have the kind of consumer engagement impact that we want to have, but also be profitable by the way we want to be at the same time, and that's kind of our outlook.

讓供應鏈處於其所處的位置，並在利潤方面取得良好的開端，並有能力進行更多投資，我們認為這些都是高投資回報率的投資，將使我們能夠產生我們所希望的消費者參與影響力。我們想要擁有，但同時也以我們想要的方式獲利，這就是我們的願景。

Yes. And just -- and our international and foodservice businesses are off to a really strong start and they're really tracking ahead.

是的。只是 - 我們的國際和餐飲服務業務有了一個非常強勁的開端，並且正在真正向前發展。

Got it. And then one on gross margin, if I can. So you talked about how you expect a step down in gross margin from the first quarter to the second quarter and then to remain at a similar level in the second half. And so I'm getting that might imply a gross margin of around 27% for the year or roughly in line with last year.

知道了。如果可以的話，然後是毛利率。您談到了您預計毛利率從第一季到第二季會下降，然後在下半年保持在類似水平。因此，我認為這可能意味著今年的毛利率約為 27%，或與去年大致持平。

A few months ago, it sounded like you were expecting some improvement in fiscal '24, given price mix and productivity, the lapping of supply chain disruptions, all outweighing negative overhead absorption and business investment. I didn't see an updated inflation number today, but assuming it stayed at around 3% for the year.

幾個月前，考慮到價格組合和生產力、供應鏈中斷的影響，您似乎預計 24 財年會有所改善，所有這些都超過了負面的管理費用吸收和商業投資。我今天沒有看到最新的通膨數據，但假設今年通膨率維持在 3% 左右。

I'm just curious what's changed? I'm assuming it's maybe a bit more business investment that has moved up. I'm just curious for any color there.

我只是好奇發生了什麼變化？我猜想可能是商業投資增加。我只是對那裡的顏色感到好奇。

Yes. So yes, we're holding our inflation assumption at 3% at this point. We've had some categories, some items where there is more inflation than we expected, but we have some that have gone the other way. So we're still holding to the 3%. That's important that, that remain that way for us to hit the margin guidance that we gave.

是的。所以，是的，我們目前將通膨假設維持在 3%。我們有一些類別、一些項目的通貨膨脹率超出了我們的預期，但也有一些項目的通貨膨脹率超出了我們的預期。所以我們仍然堅持3%。重要的是，這種方式對於我們達到我們所給予的利潤指引來說仍然如此。

We were impacted in Q1. We're really pleased with our productivity in the first quarter. Embedded in the productivity numbers are actual headwinds from absorption. So the second half with volumes being confident that our volumes will be up, we'll have a benefit in absorption. So the incremental investment can drive incremental volume and help with absorption offsets, which benefits margins.

我們在第一季受到了影響。我們對第一季的生產力非常滿意。生產率數據中蘊藏著吸收帶來的實際阻力。因此，下半年，隨著交易量對我們的交易量將會增加充滿信心，我們將在吸收方面受益。因此，增量投資可以推動增量並有助於吸收抵消，從而有利於利潤率。

But I would just remind you, we gave a range for margin for a reason because of that. We're not going to get precise with an absolute gross margin number you're directionally correct, but that's why we gave a range on operating margin for our guide.

但我只想提醒您，我們給了保證金範圍是有原因的。我們不會精確地給出方向上正確的絕對毛利率數字，但這就是為什麼我們為我們的指南提供了營業利潤率範圍。

Our next question today comes from Robert Moskow with TD Cowen.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Robert Moskow 和 TD Cowen。

Sean, I think you said in your script that in the Nielsen tracking data, you had started to see sign with some sequential improvement. I didn't quite see it in the slide, and I haven't seen it in our data yet. So I was wondering if you could give a little more color on that.

肖恩，我想你在你的腳本中說過，在尼爾森追蹤數據中，你已經開始看到一些連續改進的跡象。我在幻燈片中沒有看到它，在我們的數據中也沒有看到它。所以我想知道你是否可以對此給予更多的說明。

Sure. Happy to do that, Rob. If you look at the slide we shared today, Notably, it's units, it's not dollars. And that's the metric that we are looking at is units, not dollars because to us, that is going to be the marker of when we start to see this change.

當然。很高興這樣做，羅布。如果你看我們今天分享的幻燈片，請注意，它是單位，而不是美元。我們所關注的指標是單位，而不是美元，因為對我們來說，這將成為我們何時開始看到這種變化的標誌。

Frankly, if you look at the slide that I shared today, it's got 52 weeks, 13 weeks, 4 weeks. What the competitive set would expect to have seen is that as you move from 52 weeks to 13 weeks to 4 weeks, you see improvement in trend. And as you could see on that slide, it was fairly flat. So what we're looking for is bend in the trend in unit movement as a proxy for this consumer behavior shift beginning to move.

坦白說，如果你看我今天分享的幻燈片，它有 52 週、13 週、4 週。競爭者希望看到的是，當您從 52 週改為 13 週，再到 4 週時，您會看到趨勢的改善。正如您在幻燈片上看到的那樣，它相當平坦。因此，我們正在尋找的是單位移動趨勢的彎曲，作為這種消費者行為轉變開始移動的代理。

So if you look at the more recent period, which is -- it just came out, I think, this week, which is the 4-week period following what we shared today, you see the first noteworthy change in unit movement for Conagra and there may have been one or two other competitors that saw some movement there as well. That's important because that's the kind of movement that we thought we would see across the industry back at our Memorial Day or so, and it didn't materialize. And we've got our first data point now that's showing it's going in the right direction.

因此，如果你看看最近的一段時間，我想，這週剛發布，也就是我們今天分享的內容之後的4 週時間段，你會看到康尼格拉的單位變動出現了第一個值得注意的變化，可能還有一兩個其他競爭對手也在那裡看到了一些變化。這很重要，因為我們認為在陣亡將士紀念日左右我們會在整個行業中看到這種運動，但它並沒有實現。現在我們已經得到了第一個數據點，表明它正在朝著正確的方向發展。

That's the metric we need to move. If units move the way that we expect them to move, everything else will take care of itself at dollars. And so that's why we're focused on that.

這就是我們需要移動的指標。如果單位按照我們預期的方式變動，那麼美元的其他一切都會水到渠成。這就是我們關注這一點的原因。

Okay. And a quick follow-up for Dave. You mentioned a lot of little supply chain issues that affected last year, Dave, like the frozen fish issue and then the beans and the Chili. Is there any way to add it all up and help us understand like what kind of easy comp this provides either on sales, profits in the back half?

好的。戴夫的快速跟進。戴夫，你提到了去年影響的許多供應鏈小問題，例如冷凍魚問題，然後是豆類和辣椒問題。有沒有什麼方法可以將其全部加起來並幫助我們了解這在後半部分的銷售和利潤方面提供了什麼樣的簡單補償？

Rob, I would just go back to what we said last year. We didn't quantify everything exactly, so I wouldn't want to give you a number here. But if you go back and look at what we communicated last year, second half, I think you'll get a pretty good feel for the magnitude, generally speaking. But we didn't give a precise number on that.

羅布，我想回到我們去年所說的。我們沒有準確量化一切，所以我不想在這裡給你一個數字。但如果你回顧我們去年下半年所傳達的訊息，我想你會對整體情況有一個很好的感受。但我們沒有給出具體數字。

Our next question comes from Nick Modi with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的尼克莫迪。

Sean, it's clear your brands within frozen are doing well, and you see that in the share gains. But I'm just curious if you have made any observations regarding the perimeter right? Some of the things that we're seeing through our channel work is deflation happening in the perimeter is putting pressure on frozen the category. So when you think about the competitive landscape, are you kind of factoring that in? And do you think that could put more pressure on potential pricing and promotional spend over the next several quarters?

肖恩，很明顯，您的冷凍品牌表現良好，您可以從份額增長中看到這一點。但我只是好奇你是否對週長有任何觀察，對嗎？我們透過通路工作看到的一些事情是，外圍發生的通貨緊縮給凍結的類別帶來了壓力。那麼，當您考慮競爭格局時，您是否考慮到了這一點？您認為這是否會對未來幾季的潛在定價和促銷支出帶來更大壓力？

Nick, can you say more about the specific things in the perimeter that you're seeing that are growing? Anything might be impacting frozen?

尼克，您能詳細介紹一下您所看到的周邊地區不斷增長的具體情況嗎？有什麼可能會影響凍結嗎？

Yes, just fresh vegetables, fruits, primarily, right, the gaps between frozen and some of the fresh areas of the store.

是的，只是新鮮蔬菜、水果，主要是對的，商店的冷凍區和一些新鮮區之間的間隙。

Well, I'm not sure we're having a lot of interaction there. Even our Birds Eye business is kind of behaving similarly with the balance of our frozen business. But what you're seeing in frozen [convenience] most of the frozen items we sell are frozen convenience items. And what you've seen over the last quarter are more of this consumer pivot to what we'll call meals for many instead of meals for one, it's more of a speed scratch type of thing where you can stretch your buck and feed more mouths, but that's a laborious effort, and it's also not exactly the food that people are habitually accustomed to eating.

嗯，我不確定我們在那裡有很多互動。甚至我們的鳥眼業務也與我們的冷凍業務的餘額類似。但你在冷凍[便利]中看到的，我們銷售的冷凍商品大多是冷凍便利商品。你在上個季度看到的情況是，消費者更多地轉向我們所說的“多人用餐”而不是“一人用餐”，這更像是一種快速刮刮類型的東西，你可以節省開支並養活更多的人。 ，但那是一項費力的工作，而且也不完全是人們習慣吃的食物。

So when I look back over the last 50, 60 years and you look at consumer trends, by far, the most unshakable trend in the consumer packaged goods space is the trend toward convenience. And so we know, and you saw it in the long-term frozen data that I put up that consumers don't have the time to make stuff from scratch. They don't have the culinary skills and they don't want the waste associated with it. Does that mean they won't do it from time to time and buy a bag of rice and a can of beans and some ground beef? No, they will do that. Those are the kind of the short-term cheat codes that I referenced. But they tend not to be very lasting behaviors because, as I pointed out, consumer habits and practices are highly entrenched.

因此，當我回顧過去 50 年、60 年的消費趨勢時，會發現到目前為止，消費品領域最不可動搖的趨勢是便利化趨勢。所以我們知道，你從我提出的長期凍結數據中看到，消費者沒有時間從頭開始製造東西。他們沒有烹飪技巧，也不希望產生與之相關的浪費。這是否意味著他們不會不時買一袋米、一罐豆子和一些碎牛肉？不，他們會那麼做。這些是我提到的短期作弊代碼。但它們往往不會是非常持久的行為，因為正如我所指出的，消費者的習慣和做法是根深蒂固的。

So really, we're focused on that. We know that this is a short-term dynamic, and we expect it to change. And we certainly within frozen have the brands that drive the growth and drive the share with the innovation we've delivered. I think our categories over the last 5 years have accounted for about 70% of the growth in all of frozen, and we expect that kind of highly competitive performance to continue.

所以說真的，我們非常關注這一點。我們知道這是一個短期動態，我們預期它會改變。當然，我們在冷凍食品領域擁有推動成長的品牌，並透過我們提供的創新來推動份額。我認為過去 5 年我們的品類約佔冷凍品類成長的 70%，我們預期這種高度競爭的表現將持續下去。

Great. And then maybe one for Dave real quick. Just wage inflation, obviously, has been a big issue as it relates to conversion costs in terms of finished goods that you may buy and you have all these union negotiations going on in other industries. And I'm just curious, like what are you seeing right now in terms of conversion costs kind of coming upstream in terms of how your cost of goods is shaping up?

偉大的。然後也許很快就會給戴夫一個。顯然，工資通膨一直是一個大問題，因為它與您可能購買的製成品的轉換成本有關，並且其他行業正在進行所有這些工會談判。我只是很好奇，就像你現在看到的，就轉換成本而言，你的商品成本是如何形成的？

Yes. And our inflation assumption for 3%, we had assumptions on conversion costs, which kind of in that mid- to upper single-digit area. So that hasn't changed. We're very -- we spend a lot of time on our compensation benefits working hard to be competitive as part of our overall strategy for all of our employees. So we feel like we've captured it in our estimates for inflation.

是的。我們的通膨假設為 3%，我們對轉換成本進行了假設，該成本在中位數到高個位數的區域。所以這並沒有改變。我們在薪資福利上投入了大量時間，努力提高競爭力，作為我們所有員工整體策略的一部分。所以我們覺得我們已經在通膨估計中考慮到了這一點。

Our next question today comes from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

今天我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

Sean, a lot of questions, obviously, today on your back half guidance, and I'm sure it's not lost on you, there's clearly some skepticism on your ability to get to the volume growth you're promising in the back half. If that doesn't come to fruition, what if any offsets are in your P&L to allow you to get to the bottom line guidance?

肖恩，顯然，今天關於你的後半部分指導有很多問題，我相信你沒有忘記，顯然有人對你在後半部分實現你所承諾的銷量增長的能力表示懷疑。如果這沒有實現，如果您的損益表中存在任何抵消以使您能夠達到底線指導，該怎麼辦？

Well, look, it is a 1/4 of the year is behind us. And as I've said many other years a quarter doesn't make a year. So we are on or ahead of pace on most of our goals after one quarter. And the challenge has been this consumer behavior shift, which, as I mentioned, we view as a temporary dynamic.

好吧，看，今年已經過了 1/4。正如我在其他許多年中所說的那樣，一個季度並不等於一年。因此，一個季度後我們就實現或領先了大部分目標。挑戰在於消費者行為的轉變，正如我所提到的，我們認為這是一種暫時的動態。

Between that are favorable comps, the increased investment, we do expect meaningful top line progress in the second half. And that's our playbook, we feel good about it. We are investing more to drive the business. We are trying to do a couple of things here, which is deliver a strong '24 but also set our business up to have excellent momentum as we go out of '24 into '25, which we're confident will be a very different environment. Dave, do you want to add anything to that?

在有利的競爭和增加的投資之間，我們確實預計下半年營收將取得有意義的進展。這就是我們的劇本，我們對此感覺良好。我們正在加大投資來推動業務發展。我們正在嘗試在這裡做幾件事，即實現強勁的 24 年業績，同時也讓我們的業務在我們從 24 年進入 25 年時保持良好的勢頭，我們相信這將是一個非常不同的環境。戴夫，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yes, sure. So Jason, obviously, we're looking at our cost very closely. If you look at the quarter, our productivity performance was really strong. Our supply chain organization does a phenomenal job especially now that we're back to a kind of more accommodative operating environment to drive our productivity, and we're seeing that. So that's a big driver, obviously, for us.

是的，當然。傑森，顯然，我們正在非常仔細地考慮我們的成本。如果你看看這個季度，我們的生產力表現非常強勁。我們的供應鏈組織做得非常出色，尤其是現在我們回到了一個更寬鬆的營運環境來提高我們的生產力，我們已經看到了這一點。顯然，這對我們來說是一個很大的推動力。

You look at SG&A, we're 9.1% is where we came in last year, we'll be around that again this year. We're very efficient, we're as efficient as any food company out there, but we're always looking for opportunities. And then we obviously have our Ardent Mills joint venture, which continues to do really well. We're holding to our guide for the year there, but there's still really strong momentum in Ardent Mills. And that generates cash for our business. And so there are places we're always looking, but we're always looking to just make sure we're finding opportunities to drive savings so that we can continue to invest in the business.

你看看 SG&A，去年我們的 SG&A 率為 9.1%，今年我們將再次達到這個水準。我們非常高效，與任何食品公司一樣高效，但我們一直在尋找機會。然後，我們顯然擁有我們的 Ardent Mills 合資企業，該企業繼續表現出色。我們堅持今年的指導方針，但 Ardent Mills 的勢頭仍然非常強勁。這為我們的業務帶來了現金。因此，我們一直在尋找一些地方，但我們始終希望確保找到節省成本的機會，以便我們可以繼續投資於業務。

So Dave, I'm going to put words in your mouth to see if I'm understanding this right. I appreciate what your guidance is predicated on, that's top line acceleration. But I think I heard if that doesn't come to fruition, there could be some more opportunities on cost and there could be some upside opportunity in Ardent Mills. Did I hear that correct?

所以，戴夫，我要把話放到你嘴裡，看看我是否理解正確。我很欣賞你的指導方針，那就是頂線加速。但我想我聽說如果這沒有實現，可能會有更多的成本機會，而 Ardent Mills 可能會有一些上升的機會。我沒聽錯吧？

That's what we're always looking for. So we're -- productivity coming and Ardent, it's off to a good start.

這就是我們一直在尋找的。所以我們——生產力即將到來，Ardent，這是一個好的開始。

Yes. Part of it, Jason, is culturally the way we operate. We are wired to be a very lean, very adaptable, very agile team. We don't have a lot of orthodoxies around here or things that we're not willing to do to get to where we got to go. So we'll -- we've got a great team. They're going to get us to do what we need to do throughout the balance of the year and we'll be super agile as we always are in an environment that's highly dynamic.

是的。賈森，部分原因在於我們的營運方式文化。我們注定是一個非常精簡、適應力強、敏捷的團隊。我們這裡沒有太多正統的觀念，也沒有很多我們不願意做的事情來達到我們要去的地方。所以我們——我們有一支優秀的團隊。他們將使我們在這一年餘下的時間裡做我們需要做的事情，我們將變得超級敏捷，因為我們始終處於一個高度動態的環境中。

Yes, I would definitely recognize and respect that.

是的，我絕對會承認並尊重這一點。

Our next question today comes from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

今天我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯。

I kind of wanted to build on what Jason just asked about because it sounds -- I guess the question I'm left with is the consumer behavior shift that you're expecting doesn't play out as we go through the balance of the fiscal year. Are you committed because of looking forward to '25 and beyond, are you committed to the investment spend that you've articulated in 2Q and 2H? Or does that itself become a lever to pull to preserve bottom line dynamics?

我有點想以傑森剛才問的問題為基礎，因為聽起來——我想我剩下的問題是，當我們經歷財政平衡時，你所期望的消費者行為轉變不會發生。年。您是否因為對 25 年及以後的展望而做出承諾？您是否致力於在第二季和第二季中闡述的投資支出？或者這本身會成為維持底線動力的槓桿嗎？

And it sounds like in the first quarter, given what the environment gave you, you delayed some of the spending. Maybe that's the wrong read, but it feels like you delayed some of the investment spending because the demand was weaker. Now you're planning it later in the year as you expect demand to pick up I guess the question is if that consumer behavior shift doesn't happen, do you keep spending?

聽起來，在第一季度，考慮到環境帶給你的情況，你推遲了一些支出。也許這種解讀是錯的，但感覺就像你因為需求疲軟而推遲了一些投資支出。現在你計劃在今年稍後進行，因為你預期需求會回升，我想問題是，如果消費者行為轉變沒有發生，你會繼續花錢嗎？

Yes, Steve, I think the easy answer to your question is we manage this business for long-term value creation and long-term success with the consumer. When you get caught up in the short-term windows of consumer behavior shifts, people always ask the question, "Well, in this window, what's more important? Sales or profit?" And obviously, you always want both. But when you see short-term behavior shifts, sometimes you have to be smart and you've got to ride the way in a patient and pragmatic way. And that means not trying to force things before they're poised to pivot. Otherwise, you can end up with either metric working for you.

是的，史蒂夫，我認為你問題的簡單答案是我們管理這項業務是為了長期價值創造和消費者的長期成功。當你陷入消費者行為轉變的短期窗口時，人們總是會問這樣的問題：“那麼，在這個窗口中，哪個更重要？銷售額還是利潤？”顯然，你總是想要兩者兼具。但當你看到短期行為發生變化時，有時你必須變得聰明，並且必須以耐心和務實的方式來應對。這意味著在事情準備好轉變之前不要試圖強行推動。否則，您最終可能會得到適合您的任一指標。

And as I said, we will invest smartly. We'll pick our spots. We'll focus on quality merch, A&P and our biggest brands and awesome innovation and we'll keep a strong determination to drive brand health and value creation for the long term.

正如我所說，我們將明智地進行投資。我們會選擇我們的位置。我們將專注於優質商品、A&P 以及我們最大的品牌和出色的創新，我們將堅定決心推動品牌健康和長期價值創造。

Okay. That makes sense. Is there any -- I mean, I guess, the -- is there any validity to the thought that because there was less spending in the first quarter, it exacerbated some of the weaker demand trends and...

好的。這就說得通了。我的意思是，我猜，這種想法是否有效，因為第一季支出減少，加劇了一些疲軟的需求趨勢，並且…

No. I actually would say the opposite. We did see in one of our categories, a competitor try to do some promotional things to kind of force the issue and force and it didn't work, and it didn't have any impact on our business. And I can't imagine what their bottom line looks like with such an inefficient spend. But it's just -- that's what I mean by you have to be sometimes be smart, ride the wave in a patient a pragmatic way. If you get inpatient and you try to do something irrational and force the consumer to do something they're not ready to do, you know what you're going to do, you're going to spend a lot of money without having a lot of impact. And so we want to put our dollars and our investment out there in the marketplace on the right levers at the right time when the consumer is going to be responsive to it. And that's why we've got the cadence of our spend laid out the way we've got across the full year.

不，我實際上會說相反的。我們確實在其中一個類別中看到，競爭對手試圖做一些促銷活動來強制解決這個問題，但它沒有奏效，也沒有對我們的業務產生任何影響。我無法想像他們的底線在如此低效的支出下會是什麼樣子。但這只是──這就是我所說的，你有時必須要聰明，以務實的方式駕馭病人的浪潮。如果你變得不耐煩，你試著做一些非理性的事情，強迫消費者做一些他們還沒準備好做的事情，你知道你要做什麼，你會花很多錢，但實際上並沒有很多錢的影響。因此，我們希望在消費者做出反應的正確時間，將我們的資金和投資投入市場上的正確槓桿。這就是為什麼我們按照全年的方式安排支出節奏。

Our next question comes from Alexia Howard with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自亞歷克西婭·霍華德和伯恩斯坦。

so it seems as though the industry this year has been caught fairly flat footed with the surprising lack of recovery in volumes as price growth has slowed. Now it's obviously still way too early to tell where the impact of the GLP-1 drugs is going to go, what the uptake is going to be over the next 5, 10, 15 years. But in a similar vein, how can you start thinking about different scenarios for how that could play out which parts of your portfolio might be most affected either positively or negatively? And how do you start getting data to decide which of those parts you might want to pursue? I mean, how do you plan for another potentially big consumer behavior shift that might be coming down the pipe over the next few years?

因此，今年該行業似乎陷入了相當的措手不及，由於價格增長放緩，銷量令人驚訝地缺乏復甦。現在判斷 GLP-1 藥物的影響將走向何方以及未來 5 年、10 年、15 年的吸收情況顯然還為時過早。但同樣，您如何開始考慮不同的場景，以了解您的作品集中的哪些部分可能受到最大的正面或負面影響？您如何開始獲取數據來決定您可能想要追求哪些部分？我的意思是，您如何規劃未來幾年可能出現的另一次潛在的重大消費者行為轉變？

Alexia, I view that one a little bit differently. If you think about it, we've got an entire department of demand scientists here who are every day studying changes in consumer behavior, a particularly important one for our company has been the ever-evolving consumer definition of what constitutes healthy and how they want to eat in order to be responsive to health.

Alexia，我對此的看法有點不同。如果你想一想，我們這裡有一整個需求科學家部門，他們每天都在研究消費者行為的變化，對我們公司來說特別重要的是消費者對健康的定義以及他們想要的方式的不斷變化吃才能對健康有反應。

Back in the '90s with Snack Wells, it was all about fat and calories. And if you just look in the last few years, we've gone from grain-free to Cauliflower to Keto. I mean it's constantly evolving. So what our demand science folks do is they're constantly studying the trends that consumers are chasing, figuring out which of those need to be designed into our products and then adapting our products through our innovation program relentlessly so that we're staying up with consumer trends.

早在 20 世紀 90 年代，Snack Wells 的一切都與脂肪和卡路里有關。如果你看看過去幾年，我們已經從無穀物到花椰菜再到酮。我的意思是它不斷在發展。因此，我們的需求科學人員所做的就是不斷研究消費者追逐的趨勢，弄清楚哪些趨勢需要設計到我們的產品中，然後透過我們的創新計劃不懈地調整我們的產品，以便我們跟上消費趨勢。

So if we end up seeing changes in consumer eating patterns, let's say they go to smaller portions, then we evolve the innovations, and we design smaller portions. If they switch to different types of nutrients, we evolve the innovation, we switch to different types of nutrients. If they change the kind of pack sizes they snack on, we'll change that.

因此，如果我們最終看到消費者飲食模式的變化，假設他們吃的份量更小，那麼我們就會發展創新，並設計出更小的份量。如果他們改用不同類型的營養素，我們就會發展出創新，改用不同類型的營養素。如果他們改變零食的包裝尺寸，我們也會改變。

So this is the kind of stuff that will happen over 5, 10, 15 years, not over the next 6 months. But I think the key to navigating these kinds of just constantly evolving consumer environment is you have to be externally focused. You've got to study these consumer trends and you've got to rapidly design in what the consumer is looking for into your products and that's what we do every year.

所以這種事情會在 5 年、10 年、15 年發生，而不是在接下來的 6 個月內發生。但我認為，駕馭這種不斷變化的消費者環境的關鍵是你必須專注於外部。你必須研究這些消費者趨勢，你必須根據消費者的需求快速設計你的產品，而這就是我們每年所做的事情。

Great. That's very helpful. And just as a quick follow-up. Your leverage is obviously coming down. It's expected to come down further appetite for additional M&A and what parts of the portfolio you might be focused on for that? And I'll pass it on.

偉大的。這非常有幫助。就像快速跟進。你的槓桿率明顯下降了。預計對額外併購的興趣將進一步下降，為此您可能會關注投資組合的哪些部分？我會把它傳遞下去。

Yes. Let me say this first because I never want our investors to misunderstand this. We always follow kind of a balanced approach to capital allocation. But we've said now for some time, and I'll continue to say it, our top priority is delevering. The importance of having a clean balance sheet in the current strained external macro environment is very important to our investors, our ratings agencies, and that is our top priority.

是的。讓我先這麼說，因為我不想讓我們的投資人誤解這一點。我們始終遵循平衡的資本配置方法。但我們已經說過一段時間了，我還是會繼續說，我們的首要任務是去槓桿化。在當前緊張的外部宏觀環境下，保持乾淨的資產負債表對我們的投資者、我們的評級機構來說非常重要，這是我們的首要任務。

When the time comes that we've got our balance sheet where we want it to be, M&A has always been part of it. We've always said there are two kinds of big picture M&A: There's big synergistic acquisitions that rarely come along once in a blue moon; and then there are bolt-on more growthy smaller acquisitions they tend to happen more frequently.

當我們的資產負債表達到我們想要的水平時，併購一直是其中的一部分。我們總是說，有兩種大局觀的併購：一種是具有協同效應的大型收購，這種收購很少是千載難逢的；另一種是具有協同效應的收購。然後還有一些附加的、更具成長性的小型收購，它們往往會更頻繁地發生。

So we'll always, over the long term, keep an eye on both of those things. But right now, our focus is on continuing to pay down debt. And then when we get to the time when we can add something to the portfolio, odds are it would be in our key strategic domains of frozen and snacks.

因此，從長遠來看，我們將始終關注這兩件事。但現在，我們的重點是繼續償還債務。然後，當我們可以在產品組合中添加一些東西時，它很可能會出現在我們的冷凍和零食關鍵策略領域。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Melissa Napier for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回梅麗莎·納皮爾致閉幕詞。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. Investor Relations is available if anyone has any follow-up questions. Have a great day.

謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。如果有人有任何後續問題，可以聯繫投資者關係。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。