康尼格拉食品 (CAG) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the Conagra Brands second quarter fiscal year 2026 earnings Q&A call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Matt Neisius. Please go ahead.

    大家好,歡迎參加康尼格拉食品公司2026財年第二季收益問答電話會議。(操作說明)請注意,本次活動正在錄影。現在我將把會議交給馬特·奈修斯。請繼續。

  • Matthew Neisius - Head of Investor Relations

    Matthew Neisius - Head of Investor Relations

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Once again, I'm joined this morning by Sean Connolly, our CEO; and Dave Marberger, our CFO. We may be making some forward-looking statements and discussing non-GAAP financial measures during this Q&A session. Please see our earnings release, prepared remarks, presentation materials and filings with the SEC in the Investor Relations section of our website for descriptions of our risk factors, GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations and information on our comparability items.

    各位早安,感謝各位的參與。今天早上,我的嘉賓再次是我們的執行長肖恩·康諾利和我們的財務長戴夫·馬伯格。在本次問答環節中,我們可能會發表一些前瞻性聲明,並討論一些非GAAP財務指標。請造訪我們網站的投資者關係部分,查看我們的收益報告、準備好的發言稿、演示材料以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件,以了解我們的風險因素、GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整以及有關我們可比性項目的信息。

  • I'll now ask the operator to introduce the first question.

    現在我請接線生提出第一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

    安德魯·拉扎爾,巴克萊銀行。

  • Andrew Lazar - Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - Analyst

  • Happy holidays, everybody. Sean, maybe to start off, you've mentioned in the prepared remarks that you're seeing some of the delayed shipments materialize in December. On top of this, you've got easier comparisons starting in frozen, a return to full merchandising and a full innovation slate that you've talked about, and then some pricing in staples brands with so far expected elasticity. So I guess all in, would you be expecting positive year-over-year organic sales in fiscal 3Q? Or are there other things in the third quarter that we need to keep in mind?

    祝大家節日快樂。肖恩,或許可以先說說你事先準備好的發言稿,你看到一些延遲發貨的貨物在 12 月到貨了。除此之外,從冷凍食品開始,比較起來就更容易了;全面恢復商品銷售;以及您之前提到的所有創新舉措;還有一些主食品牌的定價,這些品牌的定價目前來看具有預期的彈性。所以我想問的是,總的來說,您是否預期第三財季的有機銷售額會比去年同期成長?或者說,第三季還有其他需要我們注意的事項嗎?

  • Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • All right. Let me break that down for you. Yes, look, what I'm seeing so far in December, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, and I like where we sit going into the second half here with some momentum. We don't provide formal quarterly guidance, but I will say that overall, we do expect organic net sales growth in the second half. And as for the quarterly flows, if you incorporate the information we're sharing today into your models, you will get a more accurate balance between Q3 and Q4.

    好的。讓我來幫你解釋一下。是的,你看,正如我們在準備好的發言稿中提到的,就我目前在 12 月所看到的,我對我們進入下半年的勢頭感到滿意。我們不提供正式的季度業績指引,但我可以肯定地說,總體而言,我們預計下半年有機淨銷售額將實現成長。至於季度流量,如果您將我們今天分享的資訊納入您的模型中,您將獲得第三季和第四季之間更準確的平衡。

  • Dave, do you want to add any color to that?

    戴夫,你想給它加點顏色嗎?

  • David Marberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    David Marberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. I mean, Andrew, I think you hit it with the shift in the kind of the trade inventory from Q2 to Q3 wrapping the supply constraints from the prior year and then wrapping the unfavorable Q3 trade adjustment a year ago. They are the three big things.

    是的。我的意思是,安德魯,我認為你抓住了重點,第二季度到第三季度的貿易庫存類型發生了變化,這既反映了去年的供應限制,也反映了去年第三季度不利的貿易調整。這是三件最重要的事。

  • Andrew Lazar - Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - Analyst

  • Great. And then earlier this week, Sean, another food company mentioned a higher cost of volume as shoppers are increasingly sort of waiting to buy more of their needs on promotion. It's not that depth or frequency had changed much. It's just amount of product being sold on deal. And it's partially for them, at least, seems to be coming at the expensive base or sort of full price volume.

    偉大的。本週早些時候,另一家食品公司 Sean 也提到,由於消費者越來越傾向於等到促銷時再購買更多所需商品,因此大量購買的成本更高。並不是說深度或頻率發生了太大變化。這只是促銷活動中售出的產品數量。至少對他們來說,部分原因似乎是價格昂貴或需要全價購買。

  • I'm just curious if you're seeing the same thing at this point or expect to? You have some vagaries obviously, because you're getting back to full merchandising in the back half that you didn't have last year. But just trying to get a sense of what you're seeing more broadly in the industry with regard to that sort of dynamic.

    我只是好奇你現在是否也看到或預期會出現同樣的情況?顯然,這其中存在一些不確定因素,因為下半年你要恢復去年沒有的全面商品銷售。我只是想了解一下,就這種動態而言,您在整個行業中看到了什麼。

  • Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Good question. I saw that regarding cost of volume, we have not seen what you just described. We recall, we built our plan to invest margin for continued upward volume inflection in frozen and snacks. And coming into the year, when we built the plan, we fully understood the cost of that inflection from last year.

    是的。問得好。關於批量成本,我注意到我們還沒有看到您剛才描述的情況。我們記得,我們​​制定了投資計劃,以期在冷凍食品和零食銷售持續成長的情況下獲得利潤空間。年初制定計畫時,我們充分意識到去年這種轉變所帶來的代價。

  • When we strung together six straight quarters of consistent volume progress prior to running into those temporary supply constraints in frozen that we've talked about previously. So what we're seeing this year is unfolding very consistent with our expectations, which, of course, was based on last year's experience, in terms of both costs and lifts.

    在遇到我們之前討論過的冷凍食品暫時性供應限制之前,我們連續六個季度實現了穩定的銷售成長。所以,我們今年看到的情況與我們的預期非常吻合,當然,我們的預期是基於去年的經驗,包括成本和提升方面。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom Palmer, JPMorgan.

    湯姆‧帕爾默,摩根大通。

  • Thomas Palmer - Analyst

    Thomas Palmer - Analyst

  • First, I just wanted to, I guess, clarify on the annual outlook. You reiterated sales and operating margin. You did take down Ardent. I think the $30 million is around $0.05 to EPS if I'm doing the math right. So I guess I'm just trying to bridge, I know there is a range here, but is there something that kind of helps to -- elsewhere in the P&L that helps to make up for Ardent?

    首先,我想澄清一下年度展望。你重申了銷售額和營業利潤率。你確實擊敗了Ardent。如果我計算沒錯的話,3000萬美元大約相當於每股收益0.05美元。所以我想我只是想彌補一下,我知道這裡有一個範圍,但是損益表的其他地方有沒有什麼可以幫助彌補 Ardent 的損失呢?

  • David Marberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    David Marberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, Tom, this is Dave. As you can see, through the first half, our operating profit and our operating margin performance is good. Now there's a lot of kind of puts and takes in terms of performance, both for this quarter and the first half. But we feel good about the momentum. We've had some favorability with the tariff timing that was more Q1.

    是的,湯姆,這是戴夫。如您所見,上半年我們的營業利潤和營業利潤率表現良好。現在,無論是本季還是上半年,業績方面都有很多起伏。但我們對目前的勢頭感到樂觀。關稅上調時間方面,我們得到了一些有利條件,主要是在第一季。

  • We've had some favorability in chicken inflation, although we're seeing some offsets with beef and pork. And importantly, our core productivity programs are really on track. So we feel good about that, and we feel good about the second half, and Sean just talked about we're forecasting positive organic sales growth for the second half.

    雖然雞肉價格上漲帶來了一些利好,但牛肉和豬肉的價格上漲又抵消了一些影響。更重要的是,我們的核心生產力提升計畫進展順利。所以我們對此感到樂觀,對下半年也充滿信心。肖恩剛才也提到,我們預測下半年有機銷售額將實現正成長。

  • Some of the -- we do have some headwinds from absorption. We talked about that in the call, and that's just simply us being really diligent in managing our working capital, our inventories because we're really tracking well on cash flow and we want to make sure that we deliver those numbers. So just given the momentum we have, Tom, and kind of how we plan the year, we think that we can cover the shortfall in audit and still stay in the EPS range.

    有些方面——我們確實在吸收方面遇到了一些阻力。我們在電話會議中談到了這一點,這僅僅是因為我們非常認真地管理我們的營運資金和庫存,因為我們的現金流狀況良好,我們希望確保實現這些數字。鑑於我們目前的勢頭,湯姆,以及我們今年的計劃,我們認為我們可以彌補審計方面的缺口,並且仍然能夠保持每股收益在預期範圍內。

  • Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And Tom, it's Sean. Just to remind everybody of one other factor. We've guided to a wider range this year than we normally do because we were very clear eyed that it's a volatile environment, and there can be things that unfold that are very difficult to predict. That's one of the reasons we put out a broader range this year so that we could navigate things like what you've seen in Ardent in the trading piece of the business and still hit our guidance. So we like where we are.

    湯姆,我是肖恩。提醒大家還有一點要注意。今年我們給出的指導範圍比往年要廣,因為我們非常清楚地認識到,這是一個動盪的環境,可能會出現一些很難預測的事情。這也是我們今年擴大業績範圍的原因之一,這樣我們就可以應對像 Ardent 在交易業務方面所遇到的情況,並且仍然實現我們的業績預期。所以我們對現狀很滿意。

  • Thomas Palmer - Analyst

    Thomas Palmer - Analyst

  • Okay. And look, I appreciate more coming here in calendar '26. But I want to just ask on Project Catalyst. As we think about its potential impact and implementation, should we be thinking about like in some past programs, you've had very clear cost savings targets? And then any sort of like stepped-up spending, be it CapEx related or other types of investments that we should start thinking about?

    好的。而且,我很期待在 2026 年的日曆中更多地來到這裡。但我只想在 Project Catalyst 上問問題。當我們考慮其潛在影響和實施時,我們是否應該像過去的一些項目一樣,設定非常明確的成本節約目標?那麼,我們應該開始考慮增加哪些支出,無論是資本支出還是其他類型的投資?

  • Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. Let me give you just some more color on Catalyst. So in CPG, you've got big core business processes that for better part of a century have been heavily manual in nature and, therefore, not perfect. Let's put it that way. Now with technology kind of being democratized for even industries with our margin structure, the access to technologies to automate a lot of these business processes is kind of in an unprecedented place. And that's a pathway to more effectiveness and more efficiency going forward.

    當然。讓我再給你詳細介紹一下 Catalyst。因此,在消費品產業,有許多核心業務流程,這些流程在過去近一個世紀裡很大程度上都是人工操作,因此並不完美。這麼說吧。現在,隨著科技逐漸普及到我們這種利潤結構下的產業,獲取自動化許多業務流程的技術的機會也達到了前所未有的水平。而這正是未來提高效率和效益的途徑。

  • So we've got a fully dedicated team led by some of my most senior leaders to make sure that we implement this. And it's basically a reengineering of core business processes using especially AI for more effectiveness and more efficiency. There undoubtedly will be time to complete the project, there will be cost to complete the project, then there will be a return on the project. And based on what we're seeing after being at this for several months, we're very excited about the potential. And during calendar '26, we'll unpack this in more detail for our investors.

    因此,我們組建了一支由我一些最資深的領導者組成的專門團隊,以確保我們落實這項計劃。它本質上是對核心業務流程進行重新設計,尤其利用人工智慧來提高效率和效益。毫無疑問,完成這個專案需要時間,完成這個專案需要成本,然後這個專案就會獲得回報。根據我們幾個月來所看到的,我們對這項技術的潛力感到非常興奮。在 2026 年日曆年期間,我們將為投資者更詳細地解讀這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Palmer, Evercore.

    David Palmer,Evercore。

  • David Palmer - Equity Analyst

    David Palmer - Equity Analyst

  • Great. Just one big picture question. Just looking across your big two retail segments, consumption trends on a two-year basis would seem to imply a return to growth in the second half of this fiscal year. But then again, a modest decline in the first half of fiscal '27. And I only mentioned that because, obviously, we're trying to sort through the noise of supply chain, not just for your shipments, but for your consumption trends as well.

    偉大的。一個比較宏觀的問題。僅從兩大零售部門來看,兩年來的消費趨勢似乎表明,本財年下半年將恢復成長。但話又說回來,2027 財年上半年略有下降。我之所以提到這一點,是因為,很顯然,我們正在努力理清供應鏈中的各種雜音,不僅是為了你們的貨物運輸,也是為了你們的消費趨勢。

  • So I guess I'm interested in whether you think multiyear trends can improve, just maybe point to the things that you're working on to improve that setup into fiscal '27, because looking now -- and the Street is anticipating some organic sales growth in fiscal 2017, but also some earnings growth in that year as well. And any thoughts there?

    所以我想知道您是否認為多年趨勢可以改善,能否指出您正在努力改進2027財年的情況,因為目前來看——華爾街預計2017財年將出現一些內生性銷售增長,但那一年的盈利也會有所增長。大家有什麼想法嗎?

  • Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. Well, David, the two growth domains for our company, as you know, are frozen and snacks. And so snacks is already, as you saw in the numbers today, growing very robustly and benefiting from things like the bounce back and C-store with gas prices. So we're already at extremely strong growth on snacks, and we've got a very strong snacks marketing plan in the back half of the year to continue the momentum we've got, especially on Slim Jim and FATTY. So that's already growing robustly.

    當然。大衛,如你所知,我們公司的兩大成長領域是冷凍食品和零食。因此,正如你今天從數據中看到的那樣,零食市場已經呈現強勁成長勢頭,並受益於經濟反彈和便利商店汽油價格上漲等因素。因此,我們的零食業務已經實現了非常強勁的成長,我們制定了下半年非常強大的零食行銷計劃,以保持我們目前的成長勢頭,尤其是在 Slim Jim 和 FATTY 這兩個品牌上。所以它已經呈現強勁成長勢頭。

  • Frozen, I know you've had a write-up recently on frozen, and you could see in our prepared materials today. I wouldn't pay too much attention to Q2 year-on-year in frozen because we had a blockbuster frozen quarter in Q2 last year. And our goal this quarter in Frozen was to reclaim the market share that we basically loaned out to a competitor when we had supply constraints beginning last winter.

    冷凍食品,我知道你最近寫過一篇關於冷凍食品的文章,你也可以在我們今天準備的材料中看到。我不會太關注冷凍食品第二季度同比數據,因為我們去年第二季的冷凍食品業績非常出色。本季我們在冷凍食品領域的目標是奪回去年冬天供應受限而拱手讓給競爭對手的市場份額。

  • And as you can see in the market share charts today, we've clawed back almost all of that in our biggest business, frozen single-serve meals, we're almost up to 53%, which is pretty much the high watermark for us there. So on a two-year basis, when you factor out the fact that we had a huge quarter last Q2 and we didn't repeat the same promotions this quarter. It's actually a very impressive quarter with good upward momentum.

    正如您今天在市場份額圖表中看到的那樣,我們在最大的業務——冷凍單份餐點領域幾乎完全奪回了所有損失,市場份額接近 53%,這幾乎是我們在該領域取得的最高成就。因此,從兩年的時間來看,考慮到我們上個季度業績非常出色,而且本季我們沒有重複同樣的促銷活動。實際上,這是一個非常令人印象深刻的季度,發展勢頭良好。

  • And as you look at the back half of the year on that business on frozen, you're going to have more high-quality promotional activity than we had last year because we were basically out of business on promo last year. And the baseline is looking good as well. And we've got good advertising and innovation and things like that. So we've got good momentum in the underlying trends on our frozen business. Vegetable, I think, is back to a record share and we've got really good program in the second half. So that all bodes -- obviously, it's too early to talk about '27 right now, but we're going to have very good momentum on frozen as we go into '27, and snacks is already, as I said, growing at near mid-single digits.

    展望下半年冷凍食品業務,我們將開展比去年更多的高品質促銷活動,因為去年我們基本上沒有任何促銷活動。基線數據看起來也不錯。我們擁有優秀的廣告、創新等等。因此,我們冷凍食品業務的基本面發展勢頭良好。我認為蔬菜的份額又回到了歷史最高水平,而且我們在下半賽季的計劃也非常好。所以這一切都預示著——顯然,現在談論 2027 年還為時過早,但隨著我們進入 2027 年,冷凍食品將會有非常好的發展勢頭,而且正如我所說,零食的增長速度已經接近個位數中段。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Galbo, Bank of America.

    Peter Galbo,美國銀行。

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • Sean, I just wanted to get your perspective. You've now had two of your largest peers not only talk about but start to enact price cuts? And just asking kind of for your crystal ball into the back half of fiscal '26 and even into early '27, just what that potential activity from some of your largest peers could mean for the group? And how you think it translates to some of the actions you all may need to take obviously, considering that you've announced some pricing in some of the staples portfolio. So would just love your perspective on that, please.

    肖恩,我只是想聽聽你的看法。現在,你們兩家最大的競爭對手不僅在討論降價,而且已經開始實施降價措施了?我只是想請您預測一下,在 2026 財年下半年甚至 2027 財年初,您一些最大的同行可能會有哪些潛在活動,這對集團意味著什麼?考慮到你們已經公佈了一些必需品組合的定價,你們認為這會如何轉化為你們可能需要採取的一些行動呢?所以,我很想聽聽您對此的看法。

  • Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. I'll try to give you some color on that, Pete. We don't have a tremendous amount of overlap with some of the other big food companies that you've seen. And in frozen, we're far and away the market leader in our big business. And in our specific snacks categories like meat snacks and seeds we really don't interact with a lot of the other big food companies.

    當然。我會盡量給你詳細解釋一下,皮特。我們與你所看到的一些其他大型食品公司並沒有太多的業務重疊。在冷凍食品領域,我們遙遙領先其他競爭對手。在我們特定的零食類別中,例如肉類零食和種子,我們實際上並沒有與其他許多大型食品公司互動。

  • But the way to think about pricing with respect to Conagra is that we have not rolled back price in order to move volume. What we effectively have done on frozen and snacks is we did not take pricing, inflation justified pricing to protect margins, we kept pricing where it was so that we could then layer on a very reasonable and high-quality promotional business that's consistent with what we've done in years past and get those businesses to growth. And that's what we've seen.

    但就康尼格拉公司而言,我們應該這樣理解定價策略:我們並沒有為了提高銷售量而降低價格。我們在冷凍食品和零食方面所做的,實際上是沒有調整價格,也沒有根據通貨膨脹來調整價格以保護利潤率,而是保持了原有的價格,這樣我們就可以疊加一個非常合理且高質量的促銷活動,這與我們過去幾年所做的一致,並推動這些業務增長。這就是我們所看到的。

  • So we've seen the desired inflection and in some parts of the business, we're already back to growth. without lowering list price, we just deferred taking inflation-justified pricing because we were focused on moving volume. So it's a little bit of a different nuance than lowering prices in order to move volume. And when you look at our percent volume sold on deal and you look at depth of discount, you do not see anything beyond what we've done historically, if anything, we're more conservative than what we've done historically. So I guess the net of that is, I would say, the volume inflection we're seeing is very efficient, and that's good, and that makes me feel good about this cost of volume concept and how we feel about our guidance for the balance of the year.

    所以我們已經看到了預期的轉機,在某些業務領域,我們已經恢復了成長。我們沒有降低標價,只是推遲了通貨膨脹而進行的合理定價,因為我們當時專注於提升銷售。所以這與透過降價來提升銷量略有不同。當你查看我們的促銷活動銷售百分比和折扣力度時,你會發現我們並沒有做出任何超出以往水平的改變,如果說有什麼不同的話,那就是我們比以往更加保守了。所以我覺得總的來說,我們看到的銷售轉折點非常有效,這是好事,這讓我對銷售成本的概念以及我們對今年剩餘時間的預期都感到滿意。

  • What part of your question did I miss, Pete?

    皮特,你的問題我漏掉了哪一部分?

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • No, I think you hit it, Sean. Very, very comprehensive. Dave, I was hoping to ask a follow-up around just the inflation guidance. I think you talked about maybe -- and apologies if I missed it, but you talked about some favorability in the quarter. You've mentioned things like chicken. Just where is inflation running? Like where did we run in the first half and maybe in the second quarter specifically? And then how we think about that in the context of the 7% for the year.

    不,我覺得你說對了,肖恩。非常非常全面。戴夫,我原本想就通膨預期再問一個後續問題。我想你提到過——如果我錯過了請見諒——你提到過本季的一些利好因素。你提到過雞肉之類的東西。通貨膨脹究竟在哪些方面蔓延?例如上半場,特別是第二節,我們的進攻路線都在哪裡?然後,我們該如何結合全年 7% 的成長幅度來思考這個問題呢?

  • David Marberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    David Marberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Sure, Peter. Just as a refresher, so we had talked about our core inflation, our guidance for the year, our core inflation a bit above 4% and then gross tariff inflation of approximately 3%. So 7% has been our total gross inflation guidance for the year. We're still on track with that, Peter.

    是的。當然可以,彼得。簡單回顧一下,我們之前討論過核心通膨率、今年的預期,核心通膨率略高於 4%,而關稅總額通膨率約為 3%。因此,我們今年的總通膨預期為7%。彼得,我們目前仍在按計劃進行。

  • We have seen some kind of puts and takes. Like I said, we've seen favorability in chicken, but we're forecasting increased cost in beef and pork. And so we have some offsets there. We see some favorability in tariffs. But remember, more than 50% of our tariff exposure is on tin plate and there's been no change to those tariff levels.

    我們看到了一些買賣交易。正如我所說,雞肉價格受到青睞,但我們預測牛肉和豬肉的價格將會上漲。所以這裡存在一些偏差。我們看到關稅方面有一些利多因素。但請記住,我們超過 50% 的關稅風險敞口都與鍍錫鋼板有關,而這些關稅水平並沒有改變。

  • And also the areas where we've seen some of the tariffs come down, our mitigation has come down as well. So it's not a significant impact on the overall year. So I would say our original kind of inflation guidance of 7% and net of 5.5% is still where we are.

    而且,在一些關稅降低的地區,我們的減免措施也相應減少了。所以這對全年的影響並不大。所以我認為,我們最初設定的通膨預期為7%,淨通膨預期為5.5%,目前仍維持在這個水準。

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • And Dave, just -- sorry, for clarification, you ran at about 5% gross inflation in the second quarter if I look at slide 24.

    戴夫,不好意思,澄清一下,如果我看第 24 張投影片,你第二季的總通膨率約為 5%。

  • David Marberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    David Marberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, it was closer to 7% because that's the margin impact. that you see on the bridge. So we were placing around a little bit south of 7%.

    是的,更接近7%,因為這就是你在橋樑上看到的利潤率影響。所以我們當時的排名在7%以下。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Max Gumport, BNP.

    Max Gumport,BNP。

  • Max Gumport - Analyst

    Max Gumport - Analyst

  • Your prepared remarks mentioned that 3Q operating margins are expected to be below 2Q levels due to A&P and then also some absorption headwinds associated with reducing inventory. I realize you've framed A&P is going to over 3% of sales in 3Q. But is there any way to size the magnitude of the absorption headwind that you'll see in 3Q?

    您準備的發言稿中提到,由於廣告和促銷活動的影響,預計第三季營業利潤率將低於第二季水平,此外,由於庫存減少,還存在一些吸收方面的不利因素。我知道你已經預測A&P將在第三季占到銷售額的3%以上。但是,有沒有辦法衡量第三季將出現的吸收逆風的強度呢?

  • David Marberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    David Marberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. What I would say is if you look at gross margin, Q3 will be similar to where we landed in Q2, maybe a little bit better. But again, there's a lot of puts and takes with absorption and absorption timing. So we don't like to get too specific on the quarter. The big impact, if you look at Q3 operating margin relative to Q2 is over 3% A&P, and SG&A as a percentage of net sales will be higher than Q2 as well. So they're really the two drivers. Gross margin is going to be pretty much in line with what we delivered in Q2.

    是的。我想說的是,如果看毛利率,第三季將與第二季的情況類似,可能會略好。但是,吸收和吸收時間方面有很多需要權衡和取捨的地方。所以我們不太願意對季度做出過於具體的規定。如果比較第三季與第二季的營業利潤率,最大的影響是廣告和促銷費用增加了 3% 以上,銷售、一般及行政費用佔淨銷售額的百分比也將高於第二季。所以他們才是真正的兩位司機。毛利率將與第二季基本持平。

  • Max Gumport - Analyst

    Max Gumport - Analyst

  • Great. And then longer-term question. Just looking back at your gross margin over time, clearly, it was running in the high 20% pre-COVID look set to end this year around the 24% level also, several hundred basis points below historical levels. And I recognize there's reasons for that. There's some investments you've made this year that you're -- and there's also meaningful inflation that you're not offsetting with price given the consumer environment. I'm just wondering as we look out over the next several years, is there anything that you're seeing that would prevent you from getting back to a high 20% gross margin level?

    偉大的。然後是一個更長遠的問題。回顧貴公司歷年的毛利率,很明顯,在新冠疫情爆發前,毛利率一直維持在 20% 以上,預計今年年底也將維持在 24% 左右,比歷史水平低幾百個基點。我知道這其中有原因。今年你進行的一些投資——而且考慮到當前的消費環境,你也沒有用價格來抵銷顯著的通貨膨脹。我想知道,展望未來幾年,您認為有哪些因素會阻礙您恢復到 20% 以上的毛利率水準?

  • Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, we plan on clawing our way north on gross margins. So we absolutely expect margin expansion going forward, particularly in frozen, and the building blocks have not changed. It starts with productivity. So our productivity is running now at about 5%, which is very strong. At some point, we're going to get inflation relief here, hopefully, back to a typical 2% level.

    嗯,我們計劃透過提高毛利率來逐步實現成長。因此,我們絕對預期利潤率未來會擴大,尤其是在冷凍食品領域,而構成要素並沒有改變。一切始於生產力。因此,我們目前的生產率約為 5%,這非常強勁。總有一天,我們會迎來通膨緩解,希望通膨能回到正常的 2% 水準。

  • The third piece is the advancement of our supply chain resiliency investments, including our chicken plants. And over time, we're going to have the ability to repatriate the outsourced production, which will be another tailwind to margins. And we are taking pricing in certain categories, as you saw in our documents today. And then the last thing I'll point to is Project Catalyst. This reengineering of our core business processes using technology will be another meaningful contributor. So between those actions and the ongoing efforts to reshape the portfolio for faster growth and better margins, we do expect good margin expansion following F '26.

    第三部分是推進我們的供應鏈韌性投資,包括我們的雞肉加工廠。隨著時間的推移,我們將有能力將外包生產遷回國內,這將成為提高利潤率的另一個利多因素。正如您今天在我們的文件中看到的那樣,我們正在對某些類別進行定價。最後我要提的是「催化劑計畫」。利用科技對核心業務流程進行重組,也將成為另一個重要的推動因素。因此,在這些措施以及為實現更快成長和更高利潤率而不斷調整投資組合的努力之間,我們預計 2026 年秋季之後利潤率將出現良好擴張。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

    Robert Moskow,TD Cowen。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • Dave, I wanted to ask about the assumption of a 100 basis point headwind in 2Q and the extent to which it can reverse in the third quarter. because some of it, it sounds like it's the thought that retailers are just not ordering as much. And in relation to consumption. And then they're going to do it in the third quarter because they don't have to worry about the SNAP issues or other issues. But retail inventories have been notoriously difficult to predict.

    戴夫,我想問關於第二季100個基點的不利因素假設,以及這種不利因素在第三季可能逆轉的程度。因為聽起來,這似乎是因為零售商的訂單量減少了。以及與消費相關的面向。然後他們會在第三季度實施,因為他們不必擔心 SNAP 問題或其他問題。但零售庫存歷來難以預測。

  • Is there a risk here that retailers just decide to go forward with less inventory than normal for the rest of the year just because they want to be more efficient. And if so, is it maybe more so in the frozen area than the shelf stable?

    這裡是否有這樣的風險:零售商為了提高效率,決定在今年剩餘的時間減少庫存。如果是這樣的話,冷凍食品區的這種情況是否比常溫食品區的這種情況更嚴重?

  • Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Rob, it's Sean. I'll give you my color on this. So the way to think about our company, our portfolio is we've got a baseline of volume that is pretty steady across all 12 months of the year. But we also then, on top of that baseline starting usually in the fall, there is another line, which is the seasonal promotional build, because we have a lot of seasonal products in the Conagra portfolio, products that are huge traffic builders at our retailers. So the retailers have that promotional seasonal volume build in terms of what sells, what scans through in their base, and every year, they are determined to wrap that successfully, meaning at least achieve what they delivered a year ago, if not grow a year ago.

    羅布,我是肖恩。我來告訴你我的看法。所以,看待我們公司和我們業務組合的方式是,我們有一個全年 12 個月都相當穩定的基準銷售。但是,除了通常從秋季開始的基準線之外,我們還有另一條線,那就是季節性促銷線,因為康尼格拉的產品組合中有很多季節性產品,這些產品能大大提升我們零售商的客流量。因此,零售商會根據促銷季節的銷量和顧客掃描量來累積銷量,而且每年他們都決心成功完成這一目標,這意味著至少要達到去年的水平,如果不能比去年有所增長的話。

  • And promotions are absolutely essential during the seasonal period to get to that level of absolute volume. So the promotional volume always comes. The seasonal inventory build always comes. It's usually just a dynamic of does that build fall into Q2?

    在銷售旺季,促銷活動對於達到理想的銷售量至關重要。所以促銷量總是會來的。季節性庫存增加總是會發生的。通常情況下,這只是一個動態問題,即該建築是否屬於第二季度?

  • Or does that build fall into Q3. And sometimes it's linked to Thanksgiving timing and whether or not Thanksgiving's in Q2 or Q3, sometimes it's linked more to the promotional calendar and is the promotional calendar queued up so that it's earlier, like it was last year where we had our heavy promotions in frozen in Q2 those big promotions in frozen this year are disproportionately moved to Q3.

    或者說,這個專案屬於第三季?有時這與感恩節的時間安排有關,感恩節是在第二季度還是第三季度;有時則更多地與促銷日程安排有關,促銷日程安排得比較早,就像去年我們在第二季度凍結了大部分促銷活動一樣,而今年凍結的大型促銷活動則不成比例地推遲到了第三季度。

  • So the way I think it's pretty simple to think about it is retailers have to start the holiday seasonal kind of inventory build at some point whether or not they started earlier or later is a function of when is the promotion. And this year, uniquely a function of the government shutdown and kind of the SNAP pause, because what I believe it happened with some retailers is anticipating a slowdown in consumer takeaway because of the SNAP pause, they manage their working capital too, and there's no reason to build inventory if you've got a pause on the near-term horizon, you can build it later. And so we've already got most of December in the books here. And so we've had a chance to see how orders are shaping up, and it's unfolding in a manner very consistent with what I just described.

    所以我覺得這個問題很容易理解,零售商遲早都要開始假日季的庫存儲備,至於他們開始得早還是晚,則取決於促銷活動何時開始。今年,由於政府停擺和食品券暫停發放,一些零售商預計消費者購買量會因食品券暫停發放而減少,因此他們也調整了營運資金管理,如果短期內沒有增長,就沒有理由囤積庫存,可以以後再囤積。所以,12 月的大部分時間已經過去了。因此,我們有機會看到訂單的形成情況,而這種情況的發展與我剛才描述的情況非常一致。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alexia Howard, Bernstein.

    Alexia Howard,Bernstein。

  • Alexia Howard - Analyst

    Alexia Howard - Analyst

  • Can I ask about innovation? Firstly, are there any numbers you can put around where you're at? And I assume that you're now significantly above where you were a few years ago during COVID. Are you now at a sort of level that you feel comfortable with, maintaining, or is there more increase to come?

    我可以問一些關於創新方面的問題嗎?首先,可以用一些數字來描述一下你目前的狀況嗎?我估計你現在的情況比幾年前新冠疫情時好得多。你現在是否處於一個讓你感到舒適並願意保持的水平,還是還有提升的空間?

  • And then sticking with the innovation theme, I wanted to ask about how you're leaning into the health and wellness trends. It seems as though there's a lot of health and lower themes going on out there. Walmart has said that they're going to eliminate 30 additives for the whole of their private label portfolio. We've got potential food labeling front-of-pack legislation coming in dietary guidelines coming up as well. I remember you talking about GLP-1 on pack labels. How is that going? And what are the priorities from here?

    然後,繼續圍繞創新這個主題,我想問您是如何順應健康和保健趨勢的。看來現在有很多關於健康和積極的主題。沃爾瑪表示,他們將在所有自有品牌產品中淘汰 30 種添加劑。我們可能會推出食品包裝正面標示方面的立法,同時也會推出飲食指南。我記得你之前說過包裝標籤上的 GLP-1。進展如何?那麼,接下來的優先事項是什麼?

  • Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Great question, Alexia. The innovation performance over the last several years has just gotten better and better and better every year, and it was good to start with. So we've wrapped really good innovation years. And each year, we make progress in innovation, both in terms of TPDs that were able to skewer, but also velocity per TPD has gotten better and better.

    是的。問得好,Alexia。過去幾年,公司的創新表現逐年提升,而且一開始就相當不錯。我們剛剛度過了非常成功的幾年創新時期。每年,我們在創新方面都取得了進步,無論是 TPD 能夠實現的突破,還是每 TPD 的速度都越來越好。

  • And this year is better than last year, and last year was better than the year before. So I'm very pleased with where we are on innovation, and we'll continue to share more about some of the success stories that we've had with innovation.

    今年比去年好,去年又比前年好。我對我們在創新方面所取得的成就感到非常滿意,我們將繼續分享我們在創新方面取得的一些成功案例。

  • But I think your second question speaks to also what's driving a lot -- not all, but a lot of the innovation success. There is undoubtedly a lot of consumer focus these days on health and wellness and has been the case for 50 years, kind of the definition of what does good health and wellness food look like in 2026 is different than it was 10 years ago, which is different than a look 20 years before that. So right now, health and wellness is heavily as everybody knows and can see heavily about protein. So the presence of protein in products is hugely important to consumers. That's a major part of our benefit bundle that we've baked into a lot of our innovations.

    但我認為你的第二個問題也說明了推動很多(不是全部,而是很多)創新成功的因素。如今消費者無疑非常關注健康和保健,這種情況已經持續了 50 年。 2026 年,人們對健康食品的定義與 10 年前不同,而 10 年前又與 20 年前不同。所以現在,健康和保健領域非常注重蛋白質,這點大家都知道,也都看得出來。因此,產品中蛋白質的存在對消費者來說非常重要。這是我們福利方案的重要組成部分,我們已將其融入許多創新之中。

  • I would say, secondly, clean label continues to be really important as well as vegetable nutrition. So if you think about our portfolio with brands like Birds Eye vegetables, which are just awesome vegetables, flash frozen at the peak of rightness. You think about protein, meat sticks as well as seeds, and you think about our frozen businesses like Healthy Choice, which are incredibly clean label, incredibly healthy, high in protein, low in sugar, low in carbs, things like that. It's very well positioned. And so I probably feel like our portfolio is as well positioned today as it's been to compete in a world that's very focused on health and wellness.

    其次,我認為清潔標籤仍然非常重要,蔬菜營養也同樣重要。所以,想想我們旗下的品牌組合,例如 Birds Eye 蔬菜,這些蔬菜品質極佳,在最佳成熟期進行速凍。你會想到蛋白質、肉條和種子,也會想到我們的冷凍食品業務,例如 Healthy Choice,這些食品標籤非常乾淨,非常健康,高蛋白、低糖、低碳水化合物等等。它的地理位置非常好。因此,我認為我們目前的投資組合處於最佳位置,能夠在一個非常注重健康和保健的世界中參與競爭。

  • And one of the things I find most interesting about the double-click on that is it's young consumers. Young consumers which we over-index with are more focused on health and wellness than I've seen in a while, and it is playing right into some of our tailwind businesses like our protein-focused brands. And that's a real positive. And you see it in categories outside of food like they're drinking less things like that. And so you get a good return when you can secure young consumers, because you keep them around a lot longer.

    而我發現雙擊最有趣的一點是,它的消費者群體就是年輕人。我們擁有數量龐大的年輕消費者群體,他們比我之前見過的任何時候都更加關注健康和保健,這正好有利於我們的一些順風業務,例如我們專注於蛋白質的品牌。那真是個好消息。而且,這種趨勢也體現在食品以外的其他領域,例如人們的飲酒量減少了等等。因此,如果你能吸引到年輕消費者,就能獲得良好的回報,因為你可以讓他們停留更久。

  • And we've had really good progress with our young consumers. And that's helping us because obviously, young consumers also tend to be lower income consumers, because they're getting started in their career, and we have a lot of good value products.

    我們在年輕消費者群中取得了非常好的進展。這對我們很有幫助,因為很明顯,年輕消費者往往也是低收入消費者,因為他們剛開始職業生涯,而我們有很多物美價廉的產品。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Leah Jordan, Goldman Sachs.

    莉亞喬丹,高盛集團。

  • Leah Jordan - Analyst

    Leah Jordan - Analyst

  • So you're stepping up your A&P spend in the back half. Just any color on how we should think about the balance between the two quarters? And with the step-up and the fact that you're calling out the consumers are still value seeking, has anything changed in your approach for this spend, be it across categories, channels or frequency, anything there?

    所以你們在下半年增加了廣告和促銷的支出。關於我們應該如何看待這兩個季度之間的平衡,有什麼其他看法嗎?鑑於此次升級以及您指出消費者仍然追求價值,您在支出方面(無論是類別、管道還是頻率)是否有任何變化?

  • Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That's a very insightful question, Leah. One of the things you will see us incorporate into our advertising this quarter is an increased emphasis on relative value. We always talk about the quality of our products. That will go unchanged but the relative value of our products versus things like quick-serve restaurants, things like that, is undeniable. And sometimes you have to remind consumers of that because while prices might be higher today than they were three years ago, relatively speaking, it's hard to beat the value and the quality that our products offer.

    莉婭,你這個問題問得真好。本季度,我們將把相對價值作為廣告宣傳的一個重點。我們總是談論我們產品的品質。這一點不會改變,但我們的產品相對於快餐店之類的東西的價值是不可否認的。有時你必須提醒消費者這一點,因為雖然現在的價格可能比三年前高,但相對而言,我們產品的價值和品質很難被超越。

  • And that value message is really value as a priority area is being very woven into our innovations themselves. Some of our innovations coming this year will be more value-oriented and our marketing messages will be value-oriented. And we think given the inflection we've already got, that will continue to push some of the light or lapsed users back into the franchise and continue to help drive our organic sales growth.

    而這種價值理念——將價值作為優先領域——已經深深融入我們的創新之中。今年我們推出的一些創新產品將更加重視價值,我們的行銷訊息也將以價值為導向。我們認為,鑑於我們已經取得的進展,這將繼續推動一些輕度用戶或流失用戶重新加入該品牌,並繼續幫助推動我們的自然銷售成長。

  • Leah Jordan - Analyst

    Leah Jordan - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then I just have one quick follow-up on the weather piece in the quarter, specifically around related to the slow start to winter. Now that we've shifted to much colder weather across the US. Just seeing if there's any color or commentary around quarter-to-date trends. Have those normalized with your expectations? Or anything to think through there?

    好的。偉大的。然後,我只想就本季的天氣預報做一個簡短的後續補充,特別是關於冬季開始較慢的問題。現在美國各地的天氣都變得更加寒冷了。只是想看看大家對本季至今的趨勢有什麼看法或評論。這些是否符合你的預期?或是有什麼需要思考的地方嗎?

  • Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, the weather outlook certainly changed in the last couple of weeks. That's great for us. As I mentioned, just to put a fine point on this, there were two weather things in the quarter that we noticed and they're tangible. So we'll just kind of unpack them. One is this hurricane thing.

    是的,過去幾週天氣預報確實發生了變化。這對我們來說太好了。正如我剛才提到的,為了更清楚地說明這一點,我們注意到本季出現了兩個天氣方面的問題,而且它們是切實存在的。所以我們就來逐一拆解看看。一是颶風這件事。

  • Like you're probably wondering, what is this hurricane thing. Well, we've had hurricanes for 10 years that hit Continental US. And when we have hurricanes hit the Continental US, we sell a lot of food in Florida, particularly canned food also along the Gulf Coast, sometimes the East Coast. And so that's kind of captured in our base. And last year, we had an unusually high hurricane quarter.

    你可能在想,這颶風到底是什麼?嗯,在過去十年裡,美國本土一直遭受颶風襲擊。當颶風襲擊美國本土時,我們在佛羅裡達州銷售大量食品,特別是罐頭食品,墨西哥灣沿岸地區,有時東海岸地區也會銷售大量食品。所以,這在某種程度上體現在我們的基本理念中。去年,我們經歷了一個颶風數量異常高的一個季度。

  • We did not plan for that this year, but we plan for a normal quarter. We didn't get any hurricane. So that's fortunate for the people along the coast line, but it was a little different than we planned. So that was a bit of a headwind.

    我們今年沒有做這方面的計劃,但我們預計本季將保持正常水平。我們這裡沒有受到颶風的影響。所以這對沿海地區的人來說是件好事,但這和我們計劃的有點不同。所以這算是一個小小的阻力。

  • And then the question around when does the cold weather kind of roll in tends to affect when do we start to see that seasonal ramp-up in our canned food, cooking ingredients portfolio like tomatoes or even canned chili. And so it always comes. It's a question of is it going to come early October, is it going to come November. So it came a little later than normal. But obviously, since the quarter has turned, you've seen very cold weather and you already know what that does to businesses like cocoa and canned tomatoes and chili. So yes, that's another timing factor.

    然後,關於寒冷天氣何時到來的問題往往會影響我們何時開始看到罐頭食品、烹飪原料(如西紅柿甚至罐裝辣椒)的季節性增長。所以它總是會來的。問題是,它會在十月初到來,還是會在十一月到來。所以它比平常晚到了一點。但很顯然,自從本季開始以來,你們經歷了非常寒冷的天氣,你們也已經知道這對可可、罐裝西紅柿和辣椒等行業會造成什麼影響。所以,是的,這也是一個時間因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Megan Clapp, Morgan Stanley.

    梅根克拉普,摩根士丹利。

  • Megan Alexander - Analyst

    Megan Alexander - Analyst

  • I just had a quick follow-up to Tom's question earlier on the EPS outlook. You mentioned you seemed confident on offsetting the shortfall from Ardent. The range is still quite wide. Sean, you mentioned it was wider than normal coming into the year. So can you just help us understand what are kind of the key swing factors or uncertainties that remain that justify keeping the EPS range wider now that we are halfway through the year rather than narrowing it?

    我只是想就湯姆之前提出的關於每股盈餘展望的問題做一個簡短的後續說明。你提到你似乎有信心彌補Ardent的資金缺口。範圍仍然相當廣泛。肖恩,你提到年初的時候它比往年要寬。那麼,您能否幫助我們理解,在年中之際,有哪些關鍵的波動因素或不確定因素仍然足以證明將每股盈餘 (EPS) 範圍擴大而不是縮小是合理的?

  • Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, I wouldn't overthink keeping it wider. We are just at Q2. So when we narrow the range historically, it's usually in the back half of the year as we move towards the end of the year, it's usually not in the first quarter, even after the second quarter. So I wouldn't read much more into that other than we're just now finishing up second quarter, and we got the second half to go, and we'll update that range again next quarter.

    是的,我不會過度糾結於保持更寬的寬度。我們現在才到第二季。所以,從歷史數據來看,當我們縮小範圍時,通常是在下半年接近年底的時候,而不是在第一季度,甚至在第二季度之後。所以,我不會對此做太多解讀,只是我們現在剛結束第二季度,還有下半年要走,我們會在下個季度再次更新這個範圍。

  • Megan Alexander - Analyst

    Megan Alexander - Analyst

  • Okay. And then maybe just another follow-up on, I think it was Andrew's question at the beginning. So you talked about in the slides and in your prepared remarks the two-year consumption trends in refrigerated and frozen inflecting back to positive. We know that the reported numbers are pretty noisy. And I know you don't want to provide guidance, but as we look to Q3 and just consider the momentum you're seeing in consumption on a two-year basis and all of these timing shifts and what we'll see in terms of the shipment timing benefit.

    好的。然後,也許可以再追問一下,我想那是安德魯一開始提出的問題。所以你在幻燈片和準備好的演講稿中談到了冷藏和冷凍食品兩年來的消費趨勢正在回升。我們知道,公佈的數據波動很大。我知道您不想提供指導,但當我們展望第三季度,並考慮到您在過去兩年中看到的消費勢頭以及所有這些時間上的變化,以及我們將在出貨時間方面看到的好處時,情況就值得關注了。

  • Would you expect that two-year reported trend in RNF to accelerate versus the first half? I'm just trying to get a sense because the Street does imply a bit of a deceleration. So just trying to understand how to think about that segment in particular, given the noise.

    您認為過去兩年報告的 RNF 趨勢會比上半年加速嗎?我只是想了解一下情況,因為華爾街的言論似乎暗示著經濟成長放緩。所以,我只是想弄清楚在各種幹擾因素的影響下,應該如何看待這個特定部分。

  • Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think you can expect a good second half in frozen. I mean, we've -- it's not a lot more complicated than the underlying trends are inflecting northward our market shares are either already back to the high watermark or very close to it. the programming that we've got in the marketplace in the next quarter will be stronger than we've had not only in the last quarter but significantly stronger than a year ago because a year ago, we were basically out of business in the quarter on promotions because of the supply constraints. So all of that lends itself to high-quality underlying momentum in the second -- in the third quarter and in the second half.

    我認為《冰雪奇緣》下半部會很精彩。我的意思是,其實情況並不復雜,基本趨勢正在向上升,我們的市場份額要么已經回到了高位,要么非常接近了。我們下一季在市場上推出的節目不僅會比上一季更強,而且會比一年前強得多,因為一年前,由於供應限制,我們基本上無法進行促銷活動。因此,所有這些因素都有利於第二、第三季和下半季的高品質潛在發展勢頭。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Carey, Wells Fargo.

    克里斯凱裡,富國銀行。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • Just regarding the inflation for this year. Like there's some puts and takes, but it's basically tracking to where you thought. Is there any reason why it shouldn't be back in that 2%-ish range going into next year based on what we can see today? Are there anomalies with the timing of some of the pork and beef inflation that you're seeing? Are there tariff carryover into next year with inventory I think the comment was we'd like to get back to that range over time, but I just wondered if there were anomalies that you're thinking about that would prevent you from getting there going into next year.

    僅就今年的通貨膨脹情況而言。雖然期間有一些波動,但基本上還是朝著你預想的方向發展。根據我們目前所看到的,有什麼理由認為明年它不會回到 2% 左右的水平嗎?你們觀察到的豬肉和牛肉價格上漲在時間上是否有異常情況?庫存關稅會結轉到明年?我記得之前說過我們希望隨著時間的推移恢復到那個水平,但我只是想知道,你們是否考慮到了一些異常情況,可能會阻止你們在明年實現這個目標。

  • Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, Chris, I feel like I'm more cautious on prognosticating about inflation now than probably have ever been, but we looked back 100 years at these inflation super cycles. And when you hit these kind of peaks on any individual commodity that have been unprecedented, you usually see a downward slope on the other side of that hill. We just have not, as an industry, experienced that yet. In our case, it's been a bit more challenging than some portfolios in that we're heavily skewed toward proteins, which, of course, remained high, but proteins go up and they usually come down. And obviously, different proteins have different timetables for that delta.

    不,克里斯,我覺得我現在對通膨的預測比以往任何時候都更加謹慎,但我們回顧了過去100年的這些通膨超級週期。當某種商品的價格達到前所未有的高峰時,通常情況下,翻過這座山峰之後,價格就會開始下降。作為一個行業,我們還沒有經歷過這種情況。就我們而言,情況比一些投資組合更具挑戰性,因為我們的投資組合嚴重偏向蛋白質,當然,蛋白質價格一直居高不下,但蛋白質價格有漲有跌。顯然,不同的蛋白質對於這個變化週期有不同的時間表。

  • So at some point, it's going to normalize here. At some point very soon, we're going to have a lot of this stuff baked into our base already. So you can really start to see some relief in the P&L if things start to break our way.

    所以,總有一天,這裡的情況會恢復正常。在不久的將來,我們的基礎架構中將會包含許多這類東西。如果情況開始朝著我們有利的方向發展,那麼損益表上就會出現一些好轉的跡象。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • Okay. We'll see how it goes. Just from a portfolio standpoint, a little bit bigger picture, we've seen a ton of activity in the food sector with portfolio changes, separations, combinations and actually in broader staples as well, we've been outside of food. When you think about what's going on in the environment right now, can you just give us the latest on Conagra's approach to its portfolio, how you think through portfolio opportunities one way or the other? And just how the balance sheet and your leverage targets factor into your medium-term objectives. Just any context would be helpful.

    好的。我們看看情況如何。從投資組合的角度來看,從更大的層面來看,我們看到食品業發生了大量的投資組合調整、分割和合併,實際上在更廣泛的必需品領域也是如此,我們已經涉足食品以外的領域。考慮到當前的環境狀況,您能否簡要介紹康尼格拉公司在投資組合方面的最新策略,以及您如何看待投資組合的各種機會?以及資產負債表和槓桿目標如何影響其中期目標。提供任何背景資訊都會有所幫助。

  • Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. Well, first of all, just to remind the listeners on the call, we have done probably more M&A than most of the companies in our space over the last 10 years, and that includes inbounds and a lot of divestitures, even separations. So we're quite familiar with that. And of course, prior to being here, I was at Sara Lee, where we had a split and we stood up two independent companies and had a good outcome.

    當然。首先,提醒一下電話會議的聽眾,在過去的 10 年裡,我們進行的併購活動可能比我們領域的大多數公司都要多,其中包括收購和大量的資產剝離,甚至是分拆。所以我們對這一點非常熟悉。當然,在此之前,我曾在 Sara Lee 工作,我們當時進行了拆分,成立了兩家獨立公司,並且取得了不錯的成果。

  • So Dave and I and the Board are always thinking of everything under the sun in terms of ways to create value for our shareholders, and we are not the slightest bit entrenched in any way. If there is a clear path to creating value, we will pursue it and we have done that in the past. So reshaping has always been part of our game plan, and that has included inbounds from time to time. I don't see us doing that anytime soon because we're focused on debt reduction. But it's also included outbound.

    因此,我和戴夫以及董事會一直在思考各種方法,以期為股東創造價值,我們沒有任何固守成規的空間。如果存在一條創造價值的明確路徑,我們就會去追求,而我們過去也這樣做過。因此,調整戰術一直是我們的比賽計劃的一部分,其中也包括時不時地進行界外球進攻。我認為我們近期不會這樣做,因為我們目前的首要任務是減少債務。但也包括出境費用。

  • And we only recently completed the divestiture of Chef Boyardee. And while we sold some EPS with that, we felt like it was the right thing to do for the portfolio long term. So we'll continue to look at our options there. And if we see a clear pathway to value creation, we are always eagerly in pursuit of that.

    我們最近才完成對 Chef Boyardee 的剝離。雖然我們因此出售了一些 EPS,但我們認為從長遠來看,這對投資組合來說是正確的做法。所以我們會繼續研究這方面的各種方案。如果我們看到一條清晰的價值創造之路,我們總是會積極追求這條路。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Marks, Jefferies.

    Scott Marks,傑富瑞集團。

  • Scott Marks - Equity Analyst

    Scott Marks - Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about the completion of the baked chicken facility. Could you just remind us how you're thinking about the cadence of repatriating some of that production and how we should be thinking about the magnitude and cadence of the margin improvement from those actions?.

    我想問一下烤雞加工廠的竣工情況。您能否提醒我們一下,您是如何考慮將部分生產轉移回國內的節奏的,以及我們應該如何考慮這些舉措帶來的利潤提升的幅度和節奏?

  • Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sean Connolly - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. I'll make a quick comment, and then I'll flip it to Dave, but it's amazing. Chicken as always been an important part of our portfolio, but chickens just been on fire over the last several years. And our historic business was mostly kind of roasted or baked chicken, and that's where we ran into some of the supply challenges last year, we got some quality and consistencies. We've fixed those. That's done. So the big chicken project is complete, and we like the way that looks, and that's great.

    當然。我簡單說幾句,然後就把話題交給戴夫,但這真的很棒。雞肉一直是我們產品組合的重要組成部分,但近年來雞肉市場更是異常火爆。我們以往的業務主要是烤雞或烘焙雞,而去年我們在供應方面遇到了一些挑戰,導致品質和穩定性下降。我們已經修復了這些問題。搞定了。所以大型養雞計畫已經完成,我們很喜歡它的效果,這真是太好了。

  • But as you know, we also, in the last year, had some tremendous success with our new Banquet MEGA Filets, which is a fried chicken product that basically looks a lot like a Chick-fil-A product. And that's an area where we've had limited capacity going forward. So we've elected to make some additional investments there to increase our capacity. It will take some time to build that out, but that's super exciting because chicken as a protein has just been on fire in part because beef has been so expensive for the consumer. But I would say, even overall, when you look at food service trends and the success of Chick-fil-A and raising cans, things like that, it's just been undeniable.

    但如您所知,去年我們的新品 Banquet MEGA Filets 也取得了巨大的成功,這是一款炸雞產品,看起來很像 Chick-fil-A 的產品。而在這個領域,我們未來的發展能力一直有限。因此,我們決定在那裡追加投資,以提高我們的產能。建立起來還需要一些時間,但這非常令人興奮,因為雞肉作為一種蛋白質,其市場需求一直非常旺盛,部分原因是牛肉對消費者來說太貴了。但我想說,即使從整體上看,當你審視餐飲服務趨勢以及 Chick-fil-A 的成功和罐頭食品的普及等事情時,這一點是毋庸置疑的。

  • So we're very excited about that being a continued tailwind for us and getting those capabilities in-house enables us to make these products in the most efficient way possible with the best margin. Dave, do you want to add to that?

    因此,我們非常高興這將繼續成為我們的順風,並將這些能力納入公司內部,使我們能夠以最高效的方式生產這些產品,並獲得最佳利潤。戴夫,你想補充什麼嗎?

  • David Marberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    David Marberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. So as we communicated at the beginning of the year with our guidance, we had estimated completing this line, this production at the end of the second quarter, which we have. So now we're in transition of bringing volume back in from the third party. As you can imagine, there's a transition there, and we build inventories and we deplete inventory. But all of that was built into our guidance, our margin and profit forecast for fiscal '26. So we're on track, and that's incorporated into what we've guided to.

    是的。正如我們在年初與指導方針溝通的那樣,我們預計在第二季末完成這條生產線、這項生產,而我們已經做到了。所以現在我們正在逐步將交易量從第三方收回。正如你所想,這裡有一個過渡過程,我們會建立庫存,也會消耗庫存。但所有這些都已納入了我們的指導意見、2026 財年利潤率和利潤預測中。所以一切都在按計劃進行,這一點也已納入我們既定的指導方針中。

  • Scott Marks - Equity Analyst

    Scott Marks - Equity Analyst

  • Understood. And then just quickly, a second question for me. There was pretty sizable impairment charge taken in the quarter. I don't believe I saw any details in the press release. So wondering if you could just share any insight around that.

    明白了。然後,我還有一個問題要問。本季提列了相當可觀的減損準備。我好像沒在新聞稿裡看到任何細節。所以想問問您是否能分享一下這方面的見解。

  • David Marberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    David Marberger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. So we, obviously, have had a sustained decline in our stock price and market cap. And so the way that you do impairment accounting, if there is a triggering event and this would qualify for where if your stock and market cap over an extended period of time is lower, you have to go back and do all the analysis you do for goodwill impairment and brand impairment. So we always do this work in our Q4 every year. So the last time we did it was at the end of our third quarter for our fourth quarter last fiscal year.

    當然。很顯然,我們的股價和市值都持續下跌。因此,在進行減損會計處理時,如果發生觸發事件(例如,股票和市值在較長一段時間內下降),則必須重新進行商譽減損和品牌減損分析。所以我們每年第四季都會做這項工作。所以,我們上一次這樣做是在上個財政年度的第三季末,也就是第四季末。

  • So we had to do that in the second quarter. And when we went through that process, given the macro backdrop, which has impacted the stock price, obviously, we made the decision to increase our discount rate.

    所以我們必須在第二季完成這件事。考慮到宏觀經濟背景對股價的影響,我們在進行這項分析時,顯然決定提高折現率。

  • So a lot of our forecasts were the same. And as you see, we're holding our guidance. So we feel good about where the business is going. It's in line with expectations. But because we changed our discount rate that drove the impairment. So it's really just marking kind of book down to the fair value.

    所以我們很多預測都一樣。正如你所看到的,我們堅持我們的指導方針。所以我們對公司的發展方向感到樂觀。符合預期。但這是由於我們改變了折現率,導致了減損。所以其實只是把書的價格降到公允價值而已。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • At this time, there are no more questions. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    目前沒有其他問題了。會議已經結束。感謝各位參加今天的報告會。您現在可以斷開連線了。