康尼格拉食品 (CAG) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Conagra Brands third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加康尼格拉品牌 2025 財年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Matthew Neisius, Senior Director of Investor Relations for Conagra Brands. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給康尼格拉品牌投資者關係高級總監馬修·內修斯先生。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Once again, I'm joined this morning by Sean Connolly, our CEO; and Dave Marberger, our CFO. We may be making some forward-looking statements and discussing non-GAAP financial measures during this session. Please see our earnings release, prepared remarks, presentation materials, and filings with the SEC, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website for more information, including descriptions of our risk factors, GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations and information on our comparability items.

大家早安，感謝大家今天加入我們。今天上午，我再次與我們的執行長 Sean Connolly 和財務長 Dave Marberger 一起出席。我們可能會在本次會議期間做出一些前瞻性陳述並討論非公認會計準則財務指標。請參閱我們的收益報告、準備好的評論、演示材料和向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，這些都可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到，以獲取更多信息，包括我們的風險因素描述、 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的對賬以及有關我們的可比項目的信息。

I'll now ask the operator to introduce the first question.

現在我請接線生介紹第一個問題。

Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

Great. Thanks so much. Appreciate it. I guess, Sean, I realize there's still one quarter ago in the fiscal year macro dynamics make for obviously a super challenging environment in which to forecast. I think -- but at CAGNY, you mentioned a few items as it related to fiscal '26, including the higher brand spending already being in the base for next year, 4% on cost of goods is productivity and a 53rd week with the wildcard, I think, being where inflation lands.

偉大的。非常感謝。非常感謝。我想，肖恩，我意識到財政年度前一個季度的宏觀動態顯然會給預測帶來極大的挑戰。我認為——但在 CAGNY，您提到了一些與 26 財年相關的項目，包括明年基礎中已經存在的更高的品牌支出、4% 的商品成本是生產力，以及帶有通配符的第 53 週，我認為，這是通貨膨脹的起點。

So I was hoping I guess you could at least bring us through your thoughts even at high -- if high level, on how we're thinking about next year at this stage knowing much is still subject to change. And I guess I asked this in the context of some other sort of fiscal year reporters having already indicated not to expect much growth next fiscal year due to the need for greater reinvestment. Yet in Conagra's case, as you pointed out in the prepared remarks, consumption trends have been steadily improving. So thanks a lot.

所以我希望你至少可以向我們介紹你的想法，即使是在高層次上，關於我們現在對明年的看法，因為很多事情仍然可能改變。我想我是在其他財政年度記者的背景下提出這個問題的，他們已經表示由於需要進行更多的再投資，預計下個財政年度不會有太大的增長。然而，就康尼格拉的案例而言，正如您在準備好的演講中指出的那樣，消費趨勢一直在穩步改善。非常感謝。

Okay. Good morning, Andrew. Let me try my best answer to that. As you know, we don't provide fiscal year guidance for any forthcoming year until the Q4 call that precedes it. So that won't officially happened to July. And given the macro environment you cited this year is extraordinarily dynamic. So we will definitely take advantage of the time between now and then to see where the dust settles on a number of these external things we are monitoring.

好的。早安，安德魯。讓我盡力回答這個問題。如您所知，我們不會提供任何下一年度的財政年度指導，直到之前的第四季度電話會議為止。因此，這不會在七月正式發生。鑑於您提到的宏觀環境，今年的情況異常活躍。因此，我們一定會利用從現在到那時的這段時間來觀察我們正在監測的許多外在事物的最終結果。

That said, you are already equipped with some of the puts and takes. Number one, consumer pull for our products remains strong and a lot of the spend as you pointed out, is in the base. Number two, inventories are being rebuilt but some of the higher costs associated with recent supply chain constraints will linger into Q1.

也就是說，您已經掌握了一些技巧。首先，消費者對我們產品的吸引力依然強勁，正如您所指出的，許多支出都集中在基礎消費上。第二，庫存正在重建，但與近期供應鏈限制相關的部分較高成本將持續到第一季。

Three, we don't expect a Hebrew National repeat in Q1. And four, we don't expect this year's second half supply constraints to repeat in H2 next year. But, and this is the big but, five, we are still monitoring inflation, tariffs, consumer sentiment, and the need for price pricing. So overall too early to give you an outlook at this juncture.

第三，我們預計希伯來國家隊不會在第一季重演這一幕。第四，我們預計今年下半年的供應限制不會在明年下半年重演。但是，這是最大的“但是”，第五，我們仍在監測通貨膨脹、關稅、消費者情緒和價格定價的必要性。因此，總體而言，現在給出展望還為時過早。

All right. Yes, understood. And then really just second, if you could go into a little more detail on the differential or the gap between shipments and consumption in the grocery, right, grocery space, just because that was the area where there was the biggest differential and frankly came in below what I think many have modelled versus obviously refrigerated and frozen. Thanks so much.

好的。是的，明白了。其次，如果您可以更詳細地說明一下食品雜貨領域的運輸量和消費量之間的差異或差距，對的，就是食品雜貨領域，因為這是差異最大的領域，坦率地說，低於我認為許多人模擬的水平，顯然是冷藏和冷凍的水平。非常感謝。

Yeah. Let me hit on that. The prepared remarks were really focused on the gap between shipments and consumption that's tied to the supply constraints, which is really a frozen concept. What you're seeing in the Grocery & Snacks concept is a bit different, which is in Grocery & Snacks this year, more seasonal holiday season -- what I'll call seasonal/holiday shipments fell into Q2 versus last year were more fell into Q3 because holidays were later this year.

是的。讓我來談談這一點。準備好的發言實際上集中在與供應限制相關的出貨量和消費量之間的差距上，這實際上是一個凍結的概念。您在雜貨和零食概念中看到的有些不同，今年的雜貨和零食更多的是季節性假期 - 我稱之為季節性/假期出貨量下降到第二季度，而去年則更多地下降到第三季度，因為今年的假期較晚。

But overall, if you look at the six-month pattern in Grocery & Snacks, it's pretty normal. There's nothing out of the ordinary there. So overall, the quarter came out for us very consistent with what we laid out for folks when we spoke about it in CAGNY. And that includes Grocery & Snacks, where there's just some shipment timing where some of the holiday/seasonal shipments were a little bit different quarter-by-quarter this year versus last year.

但總體而言，如果你看一下食品雜貨和零食的六個月模式，這是非常正常的。那裡沒有什麼不尋常的事情。因此整體而言，本季的結果與我們在 CAGNY 上為大家闡述的結果非常一致。其中包括雜貨和零食，其中一些假期/季節性的發貨時間今年與去年相比每個季度略有不同。

But overall consumption at the company level remained strong. And that's what we we've been focused on. So that's really what you're seeing there.

但企業層面的整體消費依然強勁。這正是我們一直在關注的重點。這就是你所看到的。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Ken Goldman, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼。

Just on the subject of Grocery & Snacks. I appreciate it, certain elements of that business, including meat snacks are sold maybe a little more heavily in convenience stores than traditional packaged food. I'm just wondering some of the data that we're getting on C-stores is not ideal right now. I'm just curious if that had any kind of impact versus your prior expectations on any of your products and maybe the overall Grocery & Snacks segment this quarter.

只討論雜貨和零食。我很感激，包括肉類零食在內的某些業務在便利商店的銷售量可能比傳統包裝食品要大一些。我只是想知道我們現在在 C 商店獲得的一些數據並不理想。我只是好奇，這是否對您之前對任何產品以及本季整體雜貨和零食部門的預期產生了任何影響。

Yeah, good question, Ken. Let me try to demystify that for you a little bit. First of all, overall Q3 unfolded in a manner that was very consistent with what we updated everybody on when we were at CAGNY, and that includes Grocery & Snacks. The thing you're noticing in Grocery & Snacks, as Andrew just pointed out is that that gap between shipments and consumption, consumption overall at the company level and G&S in general remain pretty strong.

是的，問得好，肯。讓我試著為你稍微解釋一下這個秘密。首先，總體而言，第三季的進展與我們在 CAGNY 時向大家更新的情況非常一致，其中包括雜貨和零食。正如安德魯剛才指出的那樣，您在食品雜貨和零食方面注意到的是，出貨量和消費量之間的差距、公司層面的整體消費量以及食品雜貨和零食總體的差距仍然很大。

But there was a gap, and it was really the way shipments fell last year versus this year and last year more was in Q3, this year more was in Q2. So that's it.

但存在差距，這確實是去年出貨量與今年相比下降的趨勢，去年第三季的出貨量較多，今年第二季的出貨量較多。就是這樣。

In terms of consumption overall for our company, as you saw in the prepared remarks, consumption remains incredibly strong which is really terrific to see. Now, if you asked me to dig within the strong overall consumption, where are their spots that are weaker? Certainly on a channel perspective, C-store as a channel can have its challenges when the consumer gets stretched.

就我們公司的整體消費而言，正如您在準備好的評論中所看到的，消費仍然非常強勁，這真是令人高興。現在，如果您讓我深入研究強勁的整體消費，他們的弱點在哪裡？當然，從通路角度來看，當消費者感到壓力時，C-store 作為一個管道可能會面臨挑戰。

And we have not been immune to that this year nor of our competitors. And so there is some channel shifting going on. C-store relative to its normal performance is a bit weaker. That's certainly impacting our portfolio. But if you could see in the total scanner data, we tend to make that up another channel. So our total consumption remains incredibly strong.

今年我們和我們的競爭對手也未能倖免。因此，一些管道正在發生轉變。C-store相對於其正常表現來說稍微弱一些。這肯定會影響我們的投資組合。但如果您可以在整體掃描器資料中看到，我們傾向於將其建構成另一個管道。因此我們的總消費仍然保持著驚人的強勁。

The only other thing I'll point you to is that within parts of the dollar channel, and not every competitor or every retailer within the dollar channel is performing equally, there are some spots that are -- I'll just say that are weaker than others that -- so we've had some of that in -- actually it's some non-measured that shows up in shipments, but not material at all on an overall consumption basis for the company, which you saw was strong.

我唯一要指出的另一件事是，在美元管道的各個部分中，美元管道內的每個競爭對手或零售商的表現並非都相同，有些地方 - 我只能說它們比其他地方更弱 - 所以我們有一些 - 實際上是一些未測量的因素出現在出貨量中，但對公司的整體消費基礎來說根本不重要，您看到的是強勁的。

Great. I'll pass it on. Thanks, Sean.

偉大的。我會傳達的。謝謝，肖恩。

Leah Jordan, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的利亞喬丹 (Leah Jordan)。

Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. I know it's a little early still for 2026 guidance as you pointed out, but I just wanted to see if you could comment on your confidence in hitting your leverage target of 3 times by the end of next year. I guess what are the key risks you see at this point it? And how do you think about the contributions from debt paydown versus just an acceleration in the business?

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。我知道，正如您所指出的，現在製定 2026 年的指導目標還為時過早，但我只是想看看您是否可以評論一下您對明年年底前實現 3 倍槓桿目標的信心。我猜您現在看到的主要風險是什麼？您如何看待償還債務與業務加速成長的貢獻？

Yeah, Leah, this is Dave. Yeah. So as you saw in Q3, were really pleased with our cash flow performance. Our free cash flow conversion was 125%. We paid down $0.5 billion of debt the last 12 months. So we expect the cash flow to continue to be strong and continue to pay down debt. We will update kind of where we are with the 3 times leverage target by the end of next year when we give guidance for July.

是的，利亞，這是戴夫。是的。正如您在第三季看到的，我們對我們的現金流表現非常滿意。我們的自由現金流轉換率為125%。過去 12 個月我們償還了 5 億美元的債務。因此，我們預計現金流將繼續保持強勁並繼續償還債務。我們將在明年年底提供 7 月指引時更新 3 倍槓桿目標的現況。

Obviously, that's impacted by earnings and the denominator. But -- so we'll see where we are there. But the cash flow is strong. We expect it to continue to be strong and our priority with that cash flow is to pay down debt. So that will continue and then we'll see where we are with that leverage target when we give guidance in July for fiscal '26.

顯然，這受到收益和分母的影響。但是——所以我們會看到我們在哪裡。但現金流強勁。我們預計它將繼續保持強勁，而我們利用現金流的首要任務是償還債務。因此這種情況將會持續下去，然後我們將在 7 月給予 26 財年指導時看到我們的槓桿目標在哪裡。

Great. Thank you. That's helpful. And then just as we're kind of talking about cash flow, it looks like you lowered your CapEx guidance for this year by about $40 million. Just keen if you could provide more detail on what was removed or delayed from the budget?

偉大的。謝謝。這很有幫助。就在我們談論現金流的時候，看起來您將今年的資本支出指導降低了約 4000 萬美元。我只是想知道您是否可以提供更多關於預算中刪除或推遲的內容的詳細資訊？

And really does this mean that we should anticipate a higher-than-normal CapEx next year? And then just maybe while we're on the topic and given we had these recent plant issues, just maybe have you changed how you think about maintenance CapEx at all? Thank you.

這是否真的意味著我們應該預期明年的資本支出將高於正常水準？那麼也許當我們討論這個主題時，考慮到我們最近遇到的這些工廠問題，您是否改變了對維護資本支出的看法？謝謝。

Yes. So the update in capital for this year is all timing. So just in terms of the cash impact of capital, more of that is shifting into next fiscal year. So we'll give the specific guidance number on CapEx next year, but you can expect that, that will bounce back up to kind of levels where we started this year. And that's not unusual with projects that you have timing can slip. And so that's just simply timing. It's not a result of us kind of cutting anything or doing anything.

是的。因此，今年資本的更新完全是時機問題。因此，僅就資本的現金影響而言，更多的影響將轉移到下一個財政年度。因此，我們將給出明年資本支出的具體指導數字，但你可以預期，它將反彈至今年年初的水平。對於時間可能會延誤的專案來說，這並不罕見。這只是簡單的時間問題。這不是我們削減任何東西或做任何事情的結果。

In terms of maintenance capital, we have a very robust process for allocating maintenance capital and making sure that all of our operations have capital they need to keep the operations running and be efficient and situations that we've had with our chicken operations. When we find things, we prioritize fixing the root issues.

在維護資本方面，我們有一個非常強大的流程來分配維護資本，並確保我們所有的營運都有維持營運和高效運作所需的資本，並解決我們在雞肉營運中遇到的情況。當我們發現問題時，我們會優先解決根本問題。

In this case, we're going for a full model monetization of that plant, and we are estimating that we will be done that by August. So we always prioritize maintenance capital and that's no different than the way we've always handled it.

在這種情況下，我們將對該工廠進行全面的模型貨幣化，我們預計將在 8 月完成。因此，我們始終優先考慮維護資本，這與我們一直以來處理的方式沒有什麼不同。

Yeah. Just to add a little more color on the maintenance capital fees. We are in the midst of a multiyear effort to kind of modernize our supply chain. Ale Eboli, our Chief Supply Chain Officer laid that program out at CAGNY a little over a year ago. And we've made tremendous investments in maintenance capital to modernize our facilities, including planned major capital investments in the frozen facility that makes our work in process chicken.

是的。只是為了給維護資本費用添加一點色彩。我們正在進行多年的努力來使我們的供應鏈現代化。我們的首席供應鏈長 Ale Eboli 一年多前在 CAGNY 制定了該計劃。我們在維護資金方面投入了大量資金來實現設施的現代化，包括計劃對生產在製品雞肉的冷凍設施進行大量資本投資。

As I pointed out at CAGNEY, we didn't quite get all the way to get implementing that project because we ran into some quality and consistency issues before we got started. So we've had to deal with that a little bit earlier than we expected. It's coming at a cost and obviously disrupted our service. But what I just want to emphasize that the investment plans have been in flight on the modernization of our network for multiple years now and remain robust.

正如我在 CAGNEY 指出的那樣，我們並沒有完全實施該項目，因為在開始之前我們遇到了一些品質和一致性問題。因此，我們必須比預期更早處理這個問題。這是有代價的，而且顯然擾亂了我們的服務。但我只想強調的是，我們多年來一直在實施用於網路現代化的投資計劃，並且仍然保持強勁。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Tom Palmer, Citi.

花旗銀行的湯姆·帕爾默。

Good morning, and thanks for the question. I guess just to start off, I wanted to ask on the fourth quarter. You noted the persistence of higher inflation, which seems to maybe be a little incremental to 4Q. It sounds like the tariffs, at least the way if you were able to comment on aren't a big swing item, but they probably don't help.

早安，感謝您的提問。我想先問一下第四季的情況。您注意到通膨持續走高，這似乎在第四季度有所加劇。聽起來關稅，至少如果你能夠評論的話，不是一個影響很大的項目，但它們可能沒有幫助。

And then at least relative to consensus estimates, sales came in a bit light, but you also reiterated your annual outlook. So are there incremental maybe tailwinds to be thinking about when we look towards 4Q that drive that inflection? Thank you.

然後至少相對於普遍預期，銷售額有點低，但您也重申了年度展望。那麼，當我們展望第四季時，是否有一些值得考慮的增量順風因素會推動這一轉變？謝謝。

I'll make one comment and flip it to Dave. As I mentioned earlier, to Andrew and Ken, Q3 unfolded in a manner largely consistent with what we expected when we spoke to investors at CAGNY. And given that, there's obviously not a lot of contemplation to changing kind of what we anticipate in Q4. But I think the big thing that we have to do, and I understand everybody on this call today is really eager to get some perspective on how is next year are going to unfold.

我會發表一條評論並將其轉發給戴夫。正如我之前向安德魯和肯提到的那樣，第三季度的進展與我們在 CAGNY 與投資者交談時的預期基本一致。有鑑於此，我們顯然不會過多考慮改變對第四季的預期。但我認為我們必須要做一件大事，而且我知道今天參加電話會議的每個人都非常渴望了解明年的情況將如何發展。

We got to see where the dust settles on these external factors because that is the biggest variable we are dealing with right now. We've already been dealing with inflation that really has not abated. So we've had record inflation over the last few years. We've still been in higher inflation this year than we expected when we went into the year. And now we're looking at potential factors that could exacerbate that and what are the follow-on actions that we're going to have to take.

我們必須看看這些外部因素最終會如何發展，因為這是我們目前面臨的最大變數。我們已經在應對尚未減弱的通貨膨脹。因此，過去幾年我們的通貨膨脹率創下了歷史新高。今年的通膨率仍然高於我們年初的預期。現在我們正在研究可能加劇這種情況的潛在因素以及我們將採取的後續行動。

It's too early to tell, obviously, how the dust is going to settle there but that's going to be a factor for us. And things that move around quite a bit. There are things like vegetables that we import from Mexico that we -- at one point we thought maybe that would be an issue. Well, maybe there's an exemption there but then maybe there are other things that become an issue.

顯然，現在判斷事情將如何平息還為時過早，但這對我們來說是一個因素。還有一些東西會四處移動。有些東西，像是我們從墨西哥進口的蔬菜，我們一度認為這可能是個問題。好吧，也許那裡有豁免，但也許還有其他事情會成為問題。

So things are moving around not only on a weekly or daily basis, but on an hourly basis right now. We've got to see where all the dust settles on that so we can really pin down next year to the best of our abilities and give you the guidance that is going to be as helpful as you -- as we can give.

因此，現在事情不僅每週或每天都在變化，而且每小時都在變化。我們必須看看這一切塵埃落定後會如何，這樣我們才能盡最大努力確定明年的計劃，並盡我們所能為您提供最有幫助的指導。

Dave, anything you want to add?

戴夫，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah. Tom, real quick, just the building blocks for our Q4, we expect consumption to continue to be strong and through Q4. We expect our shipment volumes to improve versus Q3 as we improve our service levels. We are improving our service levels on Birds Eye and our frozen meals with chicken.

是的。湯姆，簡單來說，這只是我們第四季的基礎，我們預計消費將繼續保持強勁，並持續到第四季。隨著我們服務水準的提高，我們預計我們的出貨量將比第三季有所提高。我們正在提高 Birds Eye 和雞肉冷凍食品的服務水準。

Expect improvement in gross margins in Q4 versus Q3 because remember, in Q3, we were negatively impacted by the supply disruptions and the disruption to our operations. So absorption in this quarter, negative absorption was very high. And then just some of the one-time costs we had because when you shut down an operation, it does hit your cost. So we do expect improvement in Q4 versus Q3.

預計第四季度的毛利率將比第三季度有所提高，因為請記住，在第三季度，我們受到了供應中斷和營運中斷的負面影響。因此本季的吸收量、負吸收量非常高。然後我們會產生一些一次性成本，因為當你關閉一個作業時，它確實會影響你的成本。因此，我們確實預計第四季將比第三季有所改善。

And then you saw that we had a trade estimate true-up in Q3. So we don't expect trade to have as much of an impact on margin in Q4 versus Q3. And our SG&A will be favorable in Q4 versus the prior year. So they are really the key building blocks.

然後你會看到我們在第三季有一個真實的貿易估計。因此，我們預期貿易對第四季利潤率的影響不會像第三季那麼大。我們的第四季銷售、一般及行政開支將比去年同期有所改善。所以它們確實是關鍵的組成部分。

Okay. Thank you for that. Just on the, I guess, import question with tariffs, you noted the veggies from Mexico. Are there other major items we should be thinking about that you traditionally import? And then beyond just, I guess, raw materials, are there finished goods sold in the US that are sourced overseas? Thank you.

好的。謝謝你。我想，就進口關稅問題而言，您提到了來自墨西哥的蔬菜。我們還應該考慮你們傳統上進口的其他主要產品嗎？那麼，除了原料之外，美國銷售的成品是否也來自海外？謝謝。

Yeah. I'll just give you a little commentary on that. We buy obviously a lot of stuff that goes into our products. Much of it is sourced in the US, but when we cannot find a supply in the US, think chipotle and avocados, things like that, we will source it elsewhere.

是的。我僅就此給出一點評論。顯然，我們購買了許多用於生產我們產品的原料。其中大部分來自美國，但當我們在美國找不到供應時，像是墨西哥辣椒和酪梨之類的東西，我們就會從其他地方採購。

So I mentioned vegetables out of Mexico. We buy a lot of tinplate steel for our cans outside the US because something like 75% of the tinplate steel lines in the US have been eliminated since 2018, leaving manufacturers in a position where they have no choice but to source these things overseas, we kind of fall into that camp.

所以我提到了墨西哥的蔬菜。我們在美國以外的地方購買了大量的馬口鐵來生產罐頭，因為自 2018 年以來，美國大約 75% 的馬口鐵生產線已經被淘汰，這使得製造商別無選擇，只能從海外採購這些東西，我們也屬於這種情況。

But things are moving. So yesterday I might have thought there could be an issue with vegetables coming in from Mexico and maybe that's not going to be an issue, we'll see. But today, maybe there is an issue on things like palm oil that was not on the radar as squarely yesterday.

但事情正在改變。所以昨天我可能認為從墨西哥進口的蔬菜可能會有問題，但也許這不是問題，我們拭目以待。但今天，也許出現了一些有關棕櫚油的問題，而昨天這些問題還沒有引起人們的重視。

So things are moving around. I'm not going to give you a definitive list right now because of that volatility of the situation. But as you know, running a business, you have to be able to have some stability in your assumptions. And right now, these would be the assumptions that we're making or moving around a bit. We're tracking them by the minute. And as soon as we've kind of see the dust settle, we'll rack it all up, give you our outlook and that'll be when we're in a position to give you the best guide for the coming year.

事情正在改變。由於情況不穩定，我現在不會給你一個明確的清單。但如你所知，經營一家企業，你必須能夠對你的假設保持一定的穩定性。現在，這些就是我們正在做出或正在移動的假設。我們正在每分鐘追蹤他們。一旦我們看到塵埃落定，我們就會把一切都整理好，給你我們的展望，那時我們就能為你提供來年的最佳指南。

Anything you'd add to that, Dave?

戴夫，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah. No. Our manufacturing, what we sell in the US, it is really manufactured in the US. So as Sean said, what we're looking at is our materials and materials that we would have to bring in from outside the US just because they're not available in the US.

是的。不。我們的製造，我們在美國銷售的產品，實際上是在美國製造的。正如肖恩所說，我們正在考慮的是我們的原材料以及必須從美國境外進口的原材料，因為這些原材料在美國買不到。

Great. Thanks, guys. I know it's a very evolving situation. So appreciate the color.

偉大的。謝謝大家。我知道形勢正在不斷變化。所以請欣賞顏色。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯凱裡。

Hey, guys. A quick follow-up on Q4 and then a little bit of a follow-up on the broader macro backdrop. Just in Q4, you said that the shipments would come at a higher cost, but you also expect gross margins to improve in the quarter in Q4 relative to Q3. What's kind of the gap there? Is better productivity, the incremental pricing on protein? Can you maybe just help a little bit more context there?

嘿，大家好。對第四季度進行快速跟進，然後對更廣泛的宏觀背景進行一些跟進。就在第四季度，您表示出貨成本會更高，但您也預期第四季的毛利率將比第三季有所提高。那裡的差距是什麼樣的？生產率提高就是蛋白質的增量定價嗎？您能否提供一些更詳細的背景資訊？

Yeah, Chris. As I mentioned, we have pretty negative absorption, which has impacted our cost in Q3, which will get better in Q4. But also the incremental costs we're incurring with third-party co-mans to get our inventories back, we've actually started incurring in Q3. So that will continue in Q4, but it's consistent. So it's not incremental to Q3. And that will continue through Q1 of fiscal '26, the -- using the third-party co-mans.

是的，克里斯。正如我所提到的，我們的吸收量相當負面，這影響了我們第三季的成本，但第四季的成本將會好轉。但我們與第三方合作商為收回庫存而產生的增量成本實際上已在第三季開始產生。因此這種情況將在第四季度繼續，但保持一致。因此，它對第三季而言並不是增量。而這種做法將持續到 26 財年第一季度，使用第三方合作者。

Okay. And then this is a slightly unfair question, but just following up on the prior line of thinking. When you think about the uncertainty in the current environment going into fiscal '26, how much of that is associated with the top line, the consumer response to this environment relative to your cost structure?

好的。這是一個有點不公平的問題，但只是延續之前的思路。當您考慮到當前環境下進入 26 財年的不確定性時，其中有多少與營收、消費者對這種環境相對於您的成本結構的反應有關？

I don't know if there's a way to kind of parse that out, but clearly, there's a consumption angle to this, and there's also the kind of tariff and cost angle. And I wonder if there's any way to frame the relative impact of either at this point.

我不知道是否有辦法分析出這一點，但顯然，這其中有消費角度，也有關稅和成本角度。我想知道此時是否有任何方法可以概括兩者的相對影響。

Well, I won't comment on next year, Chris, but let me just -- let me give some perspective on this year and kind of what our stance has been for the last year. Obviously, management teams are always trying to simultaneously drive acceleration of growth and gross margin expansion. So we -- in normal times, we want them both, and we want them both right now.

好吧，克里斯，我不會對明年發表評論，但讓我——讓我對今年以及我們去年的立場發表一些看法。顯然，管理團隊總是試圖同時推動成長加速和毛利率擴大。因此，在正常情況下，我們想要兩者，現在我們也想要兩者。

About a little over a year ago, we said, look, they may not come in at the same time, so if you've got to prioritize getting volume back to growth versus continued gross margin expansion, how do you prioritize? And we said, we're going to plant the flag and say returning volume to growth is the most important thing for the long-term value creation of the company.

大約一年多前，我們說過，看，它們可能不會同時進入，所以如果你必須優先考慮讓銷量恢復成長而不是繼續擴大毛利率，你會如何優先考慮？我們說，我們要樹立這樣的旗幟，讓銷售恢復成長對公司的長期價值創造是最重要的。

We have to keep the relationship between the consumer and our brands. And we made the investment to do that, and we've seen very strong connectivity between the consumer and our brands.

我們必須維護消費者和我們品牌之間的關係。我們為此進行了投資，我們看到消費者和我們的品牌之間建立了非常緊密的聯繫。

Obviously, that has pressured gross margins for us and for the industry. And so now as we start to think about what's coming next year, I think we're in for another year where we've got -- we're going to have our hands full in terms of continuing to drive growth and continuing to drive margin expansion. And that's what we're going to do between now and July when we guide and say, what's the strongest plan we can put together on both metrics.

顯然，這給我們和整個行業的毛利率帶來了壓力。所以現在，當我們開始思考明年會發生什麼時，我認為我們將迎來新的一年——我們將全力以赴繼續推動成長並繼續推動利潤率擴張。這就是我們從現在到七月要做的事情，屆時我們將提供指導並說明，我們可以根據這兩個指標制定出最強的計劃是什麼。

Okay. All right, thanks a lot.

好的。好的，非常感謝。

Yasmine Deswandhy, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Yasmine Deswandhy。

Morning, everyone. Thanks for the question. Dave, I just have a question for you and just specifically on cost inflation. In your prepared remarks, you mentioned taking pricing in Hebrew National to offset protein inflation. And I believe there was a comment made previously on the expectation of deflation on crop-based inputs. So I guess at this point, is the expectation for fiscal '26 to be higher than fiscal '25 year to date? Do you just have any updated thoughts there? Thanks.

大家早安。謝謝你的提問。戴夫，我只是想問你一個問題，特別是關於成本通膨的問題。在您準備好的發言中，您提到採用希伯來國家定價來抵消蛋白質通膨。我相信之前有人對農作物投入通貨緊縮的預期發表了評論。所以我猜想，目前對 26 財年的預期是否會高於 25 財年迄今的預期？您還有什麼最新的想法嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. We're not -- as we mentioned, we're not going to give any insight on fiscal '26 until our July call. There's a lot of things moving around right now, candidly. You saw for the quarter, our inflation came in around 4% which is where we expected it to be, and we had guided for that for the full year.

是的。正如我們所提到的，我們不會在 7 月電話會議之前提供有關 26 財年的任何見解。坦白說，現在有很多事情正在發生。大家可以看到，本季我們的通貨膨脹率約為 4%，這符合我們的預期，我們對全年的通貨膨脹率也做出了同樣的預測。

So right now, we're just looking, as Sean said, looking at all the dynamics and kind of the impact that it may have, and then we'll update further in July. But I'm not going to comment any more on inflation for next year.

所以現在，正如肖恩所說，我們只是在觀察所有的動態和它可能產生的影響，然後我們將在 7 月進一步更新。但我不會再對明年的通膨發表任何評論。

I think the big thing to take away is that it's still 4%. We've had record inflation over the last few years, and there were some folks that thought things would go backwards. That has not happened. In this quarter, we're still looking at 4%. And some of the external things that we're talking about are incremental above and beyond that if the baseline doesn't move.

我認為最重要的一點是它仍然是4%。過去幾年，通膨率創歷史新高，有些人認為情況會倒退。但那並沒有發生。本季度，我們仍預期成長 4%。如果基線不動，我們所討論的一些外在因素就會逐漸增加。

So that's what we've got to see shake out. And obviously, if we have to deal with some of these external factors, we're going to have a number of levers available to us that we typically push on. We'll look at our productivity programs and can we squeeze more out of that. We'll look at alternative suppliers. Can we get a better price elsewhere, and we'll look at pricing. Everything is on the table.

這就是我們要看到的結果。顯然，如果我們必須應對其中一些外部因素，我們通常會利用一些可用的槓桿。我們將審視我們的生產力計劃，看看能否從中獲得更多收益。我們將尋找替代供應商。我們能否在其他地方獲得更優惠的價格，我們會考慮定價。一切都擺在桌面上。

Okay. Great. Thank you. And I just have a quick follow-up, and it's more of a clarifying question off of Andrew's question earlier. So the gap in Grocery & Snacks, some of that is unfavorable mix. Some of that is trade spend. So is the remaining of that mix is it just Swiss Miss? What other products was that, that kind of drove that delta?

好的。偉大的。謝謝。我只是想快速跟進一下，這更像是對安德魯之前提出的問題的一個澄清問題。因此，食品雜貨和零食的差距，有些是不利的組合。其中一些是貿易支出。那麼剩下的混合物就只有 Swiss Miss 了嗎？還有哪些產品推動了這種成長？

I think you just hit on pretty much all of it. I mean the gap between shipments and consumption in Grocery & Snacks, I already hit that pretty hard. That was really just the way shipments fell last year, more of them in Q3 than this year, more of them in Q2. That's really -- you understand the trade adjustment.

我認為您幾乎已經了解了這一切。我的意思是，雜貨和零食的出貨量和消費量之間的差距，我已經非常嚴重地意識到了這一點。這其實就是去年出貨量下降的情況，第三季的出貨量比今年下降更多，第二季的出貨量也更多。這確實——你了解貿易調整。

Anything else, Dave?

還有什麼嗎，戴夫？

Yeah. No. I mean we talked about like Swiss Miss, the consumption was really strong in Q3. So when you look at consumption versus shipments, that's just the seasonality of that business, right? You ship it and then the consumption, and it really depends on the weather and when people want to buy it.

是的。不。我的意思是，我們談論的是瑞士小姐，第三季的消費非常強勁。因此，當您查看消費量與出貨量時，這只是該業務的季節性，對嗎？你先發貨，然後消費，這實際上取決於天氣和人們何時想要購買。

Yeah, those shipments went in Q2. We and retailers thought more consumption would have occurred in Q2. The weather didn't cooperate, but it did come in Q3. So I always say winter always comes. It came in Q3. It just pushed more of the gap. It's one of the contributing factors between the gap between shipments and consumption as it fell in the third quarter.

是的，這些貨物是在第二季度發貨的。我們和零售商都認為第二季的消費量會增加。天氣不太配合，但它確實在第三季到來了。所以我總是說冬天總會來的。它出現在第三季。它只是擴大了差距。這是導致第三季出貨量與消費量差距縮小的因素之一。

Okay. Thanks, guys.

好的。謝謝大家。

Alexia Howard, Bernstein.

亞歷克西亞·霍華德，伯恩斯坦。

Good morning, everyone. So a couple of quick questions. First of all, can you comment on any recent changes in the state of the consumer and behaviors that are shifting? We've been hearing from others that things might have deteriorated in the last eight weeks or so. I know you mentioned C-stores. Yes, any comments about shifts?

大家早安。有幾個簡單的問題。首先，您能否評論一下消費者狀況和行為最近發生的變化？我們從其他人那裡聽說，過去八週左右情況可能已經惡化。我知道您提到了 C 商店。是的，關於輪班有什麼意見嗎？

Alexia, we've been talking about these behavior shifts for about two years now where you've got stretched household balance sheets, you've had value-seeking behavior, people seeking trade-offs. So that's been in place, and it's been everything from the beginning around things like more use of leftovers, things like that. So that has been with us.

亞歷克西亞，大約兩年來，我們一直在談論這些行為轉變，即家庭資產負債表緊張，人們追求價值，尋求權衡。所以這一切已經到位，而且從一開始就圍繞著更多地利用剩菜剩飯等事情。我們的情況就是這樣。

We invested to kind of overcome some of those challenges. And obviously, you've seen tremendous responsiveness and especially in our frozen business since we started making those investments. But I think it's really more of just a continuation of a challenged consumer balance sheet where they are stretched. And so we've been incentivizing them with good innovation and some low discount, high-quality promotions to drive consumption, and you can see it in our numbers. But they're being very discerning. I anticipate that's going to continue.

我們進行了投資以克服其中的一些挑戰。顯然，自從我們開始進行這些投資以來，您已經看到了巨大的回應，特別是在我們的冷凍業務中。但我認為這其實只是消費者資產負債表面臨挑戰的延續，他們的財務狀況捉襟見肘。因此，我們一直在透過良好的創新和一些低折扣、高品質的促銷來激勵他們，以推動消費，您可以從我們的數據中看到這一點。但他們非常有辨別力。我預計這種情況將會持續下去。

If we see prices in food or elsewhere go up further, I think you're going to see more trade-down behaviors. And I think it will be the typical stuff. I think the first thing you'll see is discretionary purchases will weaken, food service trends will weaken. And then within at-home eating, I think you'll see a lot of that value-seeking behavior.

如果我們看到食品或其他商品的價格進一步上漲，我認為你會看到更多的降價行為。我認為這將是典型的事情。我認為你首先會看到的是可自由支配的購買力將會減弱，食品服務趨勢將會減弱。然後，在家吃飯時，我認為你會看到很多這種追求價值的行為。

So we're very well positioned to compete in that environment. As we pointed out at CAGNY, frozen foods are doing quite well right now. And obviously, we're the world's biggest frozen company. And then within snacking, importantly, we're very protein-centric and healthy permissible snacking. And so we've got one of the stronger snack portfolios right now, and that's helping us navigate some of these challenging consumer times as well.

因此，我們在這種環境下具有強大的競爭實力。正如我們在 CAGNY 指出的那樣，冷凍食品目前表現相當不錯。顯然，我們是世界上最大的冷凍食品公司。然後在零食方面，重要的是，我們非常注重蛋白質，並允許吃健康零食。因此，我們現在擁有更強大的零食產品組合之一，這也幫助我們度過了一些充滿挑戰的消費時期。

Thank you. And as a follow-up, I know you've got a lot on your plate right now with everything going on. But there seems to be a lot of activity at the state level to introduce bans or labeling requirements on certain additives. That seems to be bubbling up in a lot of different states now. Is that going to be a major burden, headache for you? Or is it going to be fairly straightforward to accommodate all of that?

謝謝。另外，我知道您現在有很多事情要做，有很多事情要做。但各州似乎正在積極採取措施，對某些添加劑實施禁令或標籤要求。現在，這種現像似乎正在許多不同的州興起。這是否會帶給你沉重的負擔和困擾？或者說，容納所有這些是否相當簡單？

Well, Alexia, you are now hitting on why when I talk about the things we're monitoring externally, it's plural. It's not one thing. It's not tariffs. It's a variety of things. So added to the list of external factors we're monitoring.

好吧，Alexia，你現在明白了為什麼當我談到我們在外部監控的事物時，它是複數。這不是一件事。這不是關稅。有各種各樣的事情。因此將其添加到我們正在監控的外部因素清單中。

The good news for the Conagra portfolio in regard of that one in particular is, as I pointed out at CAGNY, some number materially over 90% of our portfolio doesn't have any synthetic dyes or food coloring in our products. So it's really not a big deal for us. But we do have to monitor it because state-by-state legislation is very difficult for manufacturers to deal with.

對於康尼格拉的產品組合來說，好消息是，正如我在 CAGNY 指出的那樣，我們產品組合中超過 90% 的產品不含任何合成染料或食用色素。所以這對我們來說真的不是什麼大問題。但我們確實必須對其進行監控，因為各州的立法對製造商來說非常難以應對。

We'd rather have a federal singular voice on this so we can adapt and be as agile as we can. But when you're dealing with state-level legislation, it makes it more challenging for manufacturers to have to try to tailor stuff to individual states. So -- but with respect to food dyes and colors in general, that's not a -- we don't have a lot of in our portfolio. It's not a material concern.

我們寧願讓聯邦政府對此發表單一意見，以便我們能夠適應並盡可能保持敏捷。但是，當你處理州級立法時，製造商必須嘗試根據各州的情況客製化產品，這會變得更具挑戰性。所以 — — 但就食用染料和色素而言，一般來說，我們的產品組合併不多。這不是一個實質的問題。

Thank you very much. I'll pass it on.

非常感謝。我會傳達的。

Megan Clapp, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的梅根·克拉普。

Hi, good morning. Thanks so much. Maybe just a quick follow-up on 4Q. I think the guide maybe implies org sales somewhere around flattish. It looks like consumption, which makes sense just given the supply chain challenges, has trended a bit lower in the most recent period.

嗨，早安。非常感謝。也許只是對第四季的一個快速跟進。我認為該指南可能暗示組織銷售額處於平穩狀態。看起來，消費量在最近一段時間呈現略低趨勢，考慮到供應鏈面臨的挑戰，這是有道理的。

So as you talked about volumes improving, you're going to get a shipment benefit from the restock of retail inventory. But maybe can you just help us unpack the underlying expectation as it relates to consumptions in the context of flattish shipments in the fourth quarter, that would be helpful. Thank you.

因此，正如您所說，銷量增加意味著您將從零售庫存的補充中獲得運輸收益。但也許您能幫助我們解讀一下在第四季度出貨量持平的背景下與消費相關的潛在預期，這將會很有幫助。謝謝。

Well, I just -- I think the way to think about the shape of consumption is when you have supply constraints is as long as the underlying consumer pull remains strong, consumption will remain strong until your inventory position weakens. And so obviously, because we've had limited inventory, the inventory position has begun to weaken, that will lead to out of stocks on the shelf, and that will start to show up as weakness in consumption.

嗯，我只是——我認為思考消費形態的方式是，當你有供應限制時，只要潛在的消費者拉動仍然強勁，消費就會保持強勁，直到你的庫存狀況減弱。顯然，由於我們的庫存有限，庫存狀況已經開始減弱，這將導致貨架缺貨，並開始表現為消費疲軟。

But unlike what you're seeing from some companies on the consumption line right now, I think investors don't need to have a lot of anxiety if you see that weakness in our consumption because it will not be connected to weakened consumer pull.

但與你現在看到的一些消費產業公司的情況不同，我認為，如果看到我們的消費出現疲軟，投資者不必過於焦慮，因為這與消費拉動減弱無關。

It will be weakened -- it will really be about weakened supply and inventory levels. That too will pass because we have invested now to rebuild those inventories, but that will be the shape of the curve is consumption will be strong until our inventory position weakens, then it will weaken for a little bit and then it will rebound. You already hit the shipment flow and how that works.

它將變得弱化——這實際上意味著供應和庫存水準的弱化。這也會過去，因為我們現在已經投資重建這些庫存，但曲線的形狀將是消費強勁，直到我們的庫存狀況減弱，然後它會減弱一點，然後它會反彈。您已經了解了貨運流程及其運作方式。

Yeah. And there is a Q4 impact because of the timing of the Easter holiday. So you're seeing some negative consumption now because Easter was earlier last year than this year. So yeah, so we expect continued strength in consumption for Q4 like we've seen.

是的。由於復活節假期的時間安排，第四季度也受到了影響。所以你現在會看到一些負面消費，因為去年的復活節比今年的早。是的，我們預計第四季消費將持續強勁。

Got it. That's helpful. Thanks. And maybe just a couple of housekeeping items. The -- I don't think I saw an updated guide for leverage for this year. Is it still, I think, 3.55 is what you told us at CAGNY? Or is it may be a bit better given the lower CapEx guide?

知道了。這很有幫助。謝謝。也許只是一些家事用品。我認為我沒有看到今年更新的槓桿指南。我認為它仍然是您在 CAGNY 告訴我們的 3.55 嗎？或者考慮到較低的資本支出指導，情況可能會更好一些？

And then the second would just be on equity-method earnings. I think they were a bit better in the quarter, at least versus what consensus was modeling. Is that just timing? Is 150 kind of still the right number for the year?

第二個就是權益法收益。我認為他們在本季度的表現要好一些，至少與普遍共識模型相比是如此。那隻是時機嗎？150 仍然是今年合適的數字嗎？

Yeah. We've held both of those for the year. We haven't changed.

是的。今年我們已經舉辦了這兩項活動。我們沒有改變。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Max Gumport, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的馬克斯‧甘波特。

Hey. Thanks for the questions. Your snack volumes were up 4% in 3Q, which stands in contrast to what we're seeing for the industry. Really, we're seeing snacking categories under pressure. And I realize your total snack performance was helped by weather as it relates to the Swiss Miss business, but it still looks like your volume growth came from several of your key brands.

嘿。感謝您的提問。你們第三季的零食銷量成長了 4%，這與我們整個產業的狀況形成了鮮明對比。確實，我們看到零食類別面臨壓力。我知道你們的整體零食業績受到與 Swiss Miss 業務相關的天氣的影響，但你們的銷售成長似乎仍然來自於幾個主要品牌。

So I was hoping you could provide a bit more color on what you're seeing in snacking with regard to the broader industry weakness and then what you think is helping your business outperform? Thanks very much.

因此，我希望您能更詳細地介紹一下您在零食產業整體疲軟方面所看到的情況，以及您認為哪些因素有助於您的業務表現優異？非常感謝。

Sure. And for those who are tuning into this call who did not tune into CAGNY, I would direct you to Bob Nolan's presentation on the future of frozen and future snacking because it was chock full of interesting insights on both of those businesses.

當然。對於那些收聽本次電話會議但未收聽 CAGNY 節目的觀眾，我建議您聽聽 Bob Nolan 關於冷凍食品和未來零食的演講，因為其中充滿了對這兩種業務的有趣見解。

With respect to snacking, it's a fascinating time because snacking is an enormous, I don't know, $80 billion-plus industry in the US. And historically, a lot of that volume in snacking is in traditional chips. But there is a movement of foot in snacking right now toward healthier snacking away from carbs and more toward protein and protein dense snacking. And that's affectively our business.

對於零食來說，這是一個令人著迷的時代，因為零食在美國是一個巨大的產業，價值不詳，大約 800 多億美元。從歷史上看，零食中很大一部分是傳統薯片。但現在，零食消費正在轉變，人們越來越傾向於選擇更健康的零食，而不是碳水化合物，而選擇蛋白質和富含蛋白質的零食。這實際上就是我們的業務。

Our business is highly concentrated in protein and fiber. So between meat snacks and popcorn, you've got two very on-trend businesses, not to mention our seeds business, which is sometimes overlooked, but is a phenomenal, very profitable business. We happen to have a lot of horses that are in the right subcategories right now, and they're doing right pretty well.

我們的業務高度集中在蛋白質和纖維上。因此，在肉類零食和爆米花之間，您有兩個非常流行的業務，更不用說我們的種子業務了，它有時會被忽視，但卻是一項非凡的、非常有利可圖的業務。我們現在恰好有很多馬屬於正確的子類別，而且它們表現得非常好。

Part of the strong number that you just referenced, Max, was Swiss Miss being particularly high. I wouldn't get overly excited about that. That's timing because obviously, Swiss Miss was down last quarter because of the weather. But the underlying performance in our snacks business relative to the broader space that you're pointing out remains very strong. And I would attribute it to the right subcategories and the right brands.

馬克斯，您剛才提到的強勁數字部分是因為 Swiss Miss 特別高。我不會對此感到過度興奮。時間安排得恰到好處，因為很明顯，上個季度 Swiss Miss 的業績因天氣原因下滑。但相對於您所指出的更廣泛領域，我們的零食業務的基本表現仍然非常強勁。我會將其歸因於正確的子類別和正確的品牌。

And just a quick public service announcement on our new acquisition of FATTY Smoked Meat Sticks. Our FATTY business is now fully integrated. It's doing extremely well. It's getting incredible resonance with our retail customers. And if you have not eaten a FATTY Meat Stick yet, I encourage you not just to eat one but eat it side by side versus some of the other new players on the market. And I think you'll see that we win the taste test hands down.

接下來我們簡短地發布一則關於我們新收購的 FATTY 煙燻肉條的公告。我們的 FATTY 業務現已完全整合。它表現得非常好。它引起了我們零售客戶的極大共鳴。如果您還沒有吃過 FATTY Meat Stick，我鼓勵您不僅要吃一個，還要與市場上其他一些新產品一起品嚐。我想您會看到我們毫無疑問地贏得了味覺測試。

Great. Thanks very much. I'll leave it there.

偉大的。非常感謝。我就把它留在那裡。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Neisius for any closing remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 Neisius 先生，請他作最後發言。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Chuck, and thank you all for joining us today. Please reach out to Investor Relations with any additional questions. Have a great day.

謝謝你，查克，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。如有任何其他問題，請聯絡投資者關係部。祝你有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。