康尼格拉食品 (CAG) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Conagra Brands Q1 fiscal year 2025 Q&A conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please also note, today's event is being recorded.

大家早安，歡迎參加康尼格拉品牌 2025 財年第一季問答電話會議。 （操作員說明）也請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。

At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Melissa Napier. Ma'am, please go ahead.

現在，我想把發言權交給梅麗莎·納皮爾 (Melissa Napier)。女士，請繼續。

Thanks, Jamie. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today for our live question-and-answer session on today's results. Once again, I'm joined this morning by Sean Connolly, our CEO; and Dave Marberger, our CFO.

謝謝，傑米。大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們關於今天結果的現場問答環節。今天早上，我們的執行長 Sean Connolly 再次與我會面。以及我們的財務長戴夫·馬伯格 (Dave Marberger)。

We may be making some forward-looking statements and discussing non-GAAP financial measures during this session. Please see our earnings release, prepared remarks, presentation materials and filings with the SEC, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website for more information, including descriptions of our risk factors, GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations, and information on our comparability items.

我們可能會在本屆會議期間做出一些前瞻性陳述並討論非公認會計原則財務措施。請參閱我們的收益發布、準備好的評論、演示材料和向SEC 提交的文件，這些信息可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到，以了解更多信息，包括我們的風險因素的描述、GAAP 與非GAAP 調節以及有關資訊我們的可比較項目。

Jamie, please introduce the first question.

Jamie，請介紹第一個問題。

Ken Goldman, JPMorgan.

肯‧戈德曼，摩根大通。

I wanted to ask two questions. First, your commentary or your tone on snacking is certainly better than what we're seeing and hearing from a lot of other snack makers, really almost all other snack makers out there right now. What are you seeing? Obviously, you have a little more of a protein bent in your snacking business. But even your popcorn business, the tone was positive on, and most popcorn brands that we see are not doing great.

我想問兩個問題。首先，您對零食的評論或語氣肯定比我們從許多其他零食製造商（實際上幾乎現在所有其他零食製造商）看到和聽到的更好。你看到什麼了？顯然，您的零食業務對蛋白質有更多的興趣。但即使是你的爆米花業務，基調也是積極的，我們看到的大多數爆米花品牌都表現不佳。

So just trying to get a sense of sort of is it execution? Is it the portfolio? What are you seeing out there that's giving you that advantage right now?

所以只是想了解它是執行力嗎？是投資組合嗎？現在您看到什麼為您帶來了這種優勢？

Hey, Ken. It's Sean. Yeah, our snack business is larger than I think people realize, and it's also quite a bit different from other snack businesses in a couple of ways. Number one, it's extremely focused on permissible snacks of protein- and fiber-rich snacks. And number two, it's a non-DSD snack business. So we stay out of the chip space, and we've been building scale in the permissible snack space for years now. We have a substantial business.

嘿，肯。是肖恩。是的，我們的零食業務比我認為人們意識到的要大，而且在幾個方面與其他零食業務也有很大不同。第一，它非常關注允許的富含蛋白質和纖維的零食。第二，這是一個非 DSD 零食業務。因此，我們遠離晶片領域，多年來我們一直在允許的零食領域擴大規模。我們有大量的業務。

But what we're seeing is more broadly in snacks, there's a clear pivot toward healthier permissible snacks, and in particular, anything that's rich in protein or rich in fiber seems to be among the top priorities in those people who are consuming snacks. Obviously, snacking is a huge space. We're very excited to add the fatty to our mix because that gives us an even more premium meat stick product. But meat sticks, as you could see in the prepared remarks, is the fastest growing snack subspace of all snacks, and that's where the bulk of our business is.

但我們看到的是更廣泛的零食領域，人們明顯轉向更健康的零食，特別是任何富含蛋白質或富含纖維的東西似乎都是那些吃零食的人的首要任務之一。顯然，零食有一個巨大的空間。我們非常高興將脂肪添加到我們的混合物中，因為這為我們提供了更優質的肉棒產品。但正如您在準備好的評論中所看到的，肉棒是所有零食中成長最快的零食子領域，這也是我們的大部分業務所在。

Okay. And then quickly on frozen food, there's a lot of comments being made in the industry about scratch cooking and how that's picking up because -- partly because of the cost of eating away from home. I understand that. But what are your data showing about frozen food? It would seem to me that scratch cooking costs more than a frozen dinner.

好的。然後很快就冷凍食品而言，業內有很多關於臨時烹飪以及這種情況如何回升的評論，部分原因是外出就餐的成本。我明白這一點。但是關於冷凍食品的數據顯示了什麼？在我看來，臨時做飯比冷凍晚餐更貴。

So do your data show a pick-up or a significant pick-up in consumers really shifting from restaurants over the last few months? Is that an accelerating trend? I know, Sean, you thought it would happen. I just don't know quite how much you're actually seeing in the data?

那麼，您的數據是否顯示過去幾個月消費者真正從餐廳轉移的人數有所回升或顯著回升？這是一個加速的趨勢嗎？我知道，肖恩，你認為這會發生。我只是不知道你在數據中實際上看到了多少？

Well, I think it's a really interesting question because our demand science team is constantly giving us this data, and what we're seeing is interesting. A year or so ago, we did see some behavior shifts toward more scratch cooking, and I'm talking very affordable stuff, a bag of rice, a pound of ground beef, things like that. Our products like cans of tomatoes would do well in that environment.

嗯，我認為這是一個非常有趣的問題，因為我們的需求科學團隊不斷向我們提供這些數據，而我們所看到的很有趣。大約一年前，我們確實看到一些行為轉向更多的臨時烹飪，我說的是非常實惠的東西，一袋大米，一磅碎牛肉，諸如此類的東西。我們的產品（例如西紅柿罐頭）在這種環境下會表現良好。

But from what we're seeing in the data now, the scratch cooking behavior shift we saw a year ago seems to be running its course. And specifically, what we're seeing now is there's a pivot back to more convenient items. Even the some of the strength you guys point out in the perimeter of the store tends to be things that can be prepared in less than five minutes. So consumers have pivoted back to convenience, which we are capitalizing on in our frozen space.

但從我們現在在數據中看到的情況來看，我們一年前看到的從頭開始烹飪行為的轉變似乎正在發生。具體來說，我們現在看到的是，人們正在轉向更方便的物品。就連你們在商店週邊指出的一些強項也往往是五分鐘內就能準備好的東西。因此，消費者已經轉向便利，而我們正在我們的冷凍空間中利用這項便利。

I pointed out that frozen has been a growth engine for over 40 years in large part because of the convenience and affordability. We see that consumer pivot happening. We are more active as we should be as the leaders in frozen than just about anybody else in this space, and we're gaining as a result.

我指出，冷凍食品 40 多年來一直是成長動力，很大程度上是因為其便利性和價格實惠。我們看到消費者轉向正在發生。作為冷凍領域的領導者，我們比這個領域的任何其他人都更活躍，因此我們正在取得進展。

So we invested to nudge consumers back to this practice, but we had tremendous confidence that of all the consumer benefit areas we've tracked in the last 50 years, the single most unshakable one is the need for convenience, and that's what we offer with our frozen business.

因此，我們投資推動消費者重新採用這種做法，但我們非常有信心，在過去50 年追蹤的所有消費者利益領域中，最不可動搖的一個領域是對便利的需求，而這正是我們提供的我們的冷凍業務。

Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

安德魯·拉扎爾，巴克萊銀行。

So it's clear Conagra has made obviously very good progress on large parts of the portfolio, most notably frozen and snacks domains. But this progress has maybe too often been clouded by various other parts of the portfolio, like maybe a little bit of a leaky bucket at times. And some of those businesses, I think, what seem to be at least appear to be less core at least from the outside. And interesting, each business plays a different role within your portfolio.

因此，很明顯，康尼格拉在產品組合的大部分方面取得了明顯的非常好的進展，尤其是在冷凍和零食領域。但這一進展可能經常被投資組合的其他各個部分所蒙蔽，有時就像漏水的桶子一樣。我認為，其中一些業務至少從外部來看似乎不太核心。有趣的是，每個業務在您的投資組合中扮演不同的角色。

But maybe in light of your much more, it sounded to me, pointed remarks in today's prepared commentary around getting back to portfolio reshaping, I guess, I'm curious if we should take this to mean maybe now there's a greater appreciation to the benefits of portfolio reshaping, like even if it comes with maybe some near-term earnings dilution but longer term growth and value creation. If I'm not mistaken, you definitely made more of a direct point, I thought, in today's prepared remarks than I've seen in the past.

但也許根據你在今天準備好的評論中關於回到投資組合重塑的更多尖銳言論，我想，我很好奇我們是否應該認為這意味著現在可能對收益有了更大的讚賞投資組合重塑，即使它可能會帶來一些短期收益稀釋，但會帶來長期增長和價值創造。如果我沒記錯的話，我想，你在今天準備好的發言中肯定比我過去看到的更直接地表達了觀點。

Yeah, let me unpack that for you. First, I will say that having a Hebrew National issue in grilling season is like getting a flat tire on the way to your wedding. It's unfortunate timing. But just like the flat, it's a minor issue when you have to deal with and you keep moving on.

是的，讓我為你打開包裝。首先，我要說的是，在燒烤季節遇到希伯來國家問題就像在去婚禮的路上輪胎漏氣一樣。這是不幸的時機。但就像公寓一樣，當你必須處理並繼續前進時，這只是一個小問題。

With respect to the portfolio reshaping, as I've said many times, our true north long term has been perpetually reshaping our portfolio for better growth and better margins. And we do that three ways. Number one, we invest in the businesses we own, especially innovation, as you all know. Number two, we seek to acquire faster growing businesses in snacks or in frozen. And number three, we divest slower growth assets.

關於投資組合重塑，正如我多次說過的那樣，我們真正的長期目標一直是不斷重塑我們的投資組合，以實現更好的成長和更高的利潤率。我們透過三種方式做到這一點。第一，眾所周知，我們投資於我們擁有的企業，尤其是創新。第二，我們尋求收購成長更快的零食或冷凍業務。第三，我們剝離成長較慢的資產。

So as I mentioned in our prepared remarks, our strong cash flow and our balance sheet progress have put us in a position to put more focus on this, but, as I said, all while continuing to make progress getting to our leverage target of 3.0 times. So that means that when it comes to acquisitions, we're really not talking more than bolt-ons, and you saw that with fatty in this quarter. And as for divestitures, if it's a slower growth asset or not a strategic fit, it's a candidate to go if an exit would generate a number at or above intrinsic value.

因此，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，我們強勁的現金流和資產負債表進展使我們能夠更加關注這一點，但正如我所說，同時繼續取得進展，實現我們的槓桿目標 3.0次。因此，這意味著在收購方面，我們實際上談論的只是補充，您在本季的 Fat 身上就看到了這一點。至於剝離，如果它是一種成長較慢的資產，或者不符合策略，那麼如果退出會產生等於或高於內在價值的數字，那麼它就是剝離的候選者。

So we've done quite a bit of this over the years, and we're very disciplined to ensure that if we do it, we're going to create value and not destroy value. And now that we've got the cash flow and the balance sheet in place, we think we can be more active reshaping and continue to make progress on our balance sheet. And that's hitting the target.

因此，多年來我們在這方面做了很多工作，而且我們非常自律，以確保如果我們這樣做，我們將創造價值而不是破壞價值。現在我們已經有了現金流和資產負債表，我們認為我們可以更積極地重塑並繼續在資產負債表上取得進展。這就是達到目標了。

And then a quick follow-up. Obviously, even if we take out the Hebrew National disruption, organic for the quarter maybe came in, I guess, a little bit -- I mean, it was sequentially improved as you thought it would be but still maybe not quite where maybe you'd hoped it had been or where Street estimates were. It sounds like 2Q also, right, it's some gradual sequential improvement but still a greater amount of reinvestment. So it seems like more of the pressure than even maybe you might have thought at the start of the year is going to be in the second half.

然後快速跟進。顯然，即使我們排除了希伯來國家的干擾，本季度的有機可能會進來，我想，一點點- 我的意思是，它按照你的預期得到了連續改善，但仍然可能不完全是你可能的情況。聽起來第二季也是如此，對吧，這是一些逐步的連續改善，但仍然是大量的再投資。因此，下半年的壓力似乎比年初想像的還要大。

I guess, what gives you the confidence of the visibility that the full-year reiteration is the right approach given it seems more second half-weighted, but maybe I'm seeing that not in the right way?

我想，是什麼讓你相信全年重申是正確的方法，因為它似乎更側重於下半年，但也許我認為這不是正確的方式？

Yeah. And no question, there was a lot of noise in the quarter. That's why we're trying to unpack it today. In terms of the the organic dollar sales mix versus consensus standards, it's two places, and Dave will unpack this in just a second after I make another point. One is mix, and the other is foodservice, what you guys were expecting in foodservice.

是的。毫無疑問，這個季度有很多噪音。這就是我們今天試圖拆開它的原因。就有機美元銷售組合與共識標準而言，這是兩個地方，戴夫將在我提出另一點後立即解開這一點。一個是混合，另一個是餐飲服務，這是你們對餐飲服務的期望。

But the bottom line from my vantage point is that after Q1, we are largely where we expected to be. While we didn't expect the Hebrew National disruption, to me, that is not as noteworthy as the fact that our investments are working quite well, our scan volume was positive in frozen and snacks, and our share performance was outstanding. So it's not lost on me, there's a lot of noise in the quarter. That's why we're endeavoring on unpacking in detail, so we can enable clarity on the core fundamentals.

但從我的角度來看，最重要的是，在第一季之後，我們基本上達到了預期的水平。雖然我們沒有預料到希伯來國家會造成乾擾，但對我來說，這並不像我們的投資運作良好這一事實那麼值得注意，我們在冷凍和零食方面的掃描量是積極的，而且我們的股票表現也很優秀。所以我並沒有忘記，這個季度有很多噪音。這就是為什麼我們致力於詳細解包，以便我們能夠清晰地了解核心基礎知識。

So back over to Dave to talk about this -- the other two factors I just mentioned.

現在回到戴夫來談談這件事——我剛才提到的其他兩個因素。

Yeah. So Andrew, there's -- when we originally gave guidance, and we gave some color on Q1, we were trying to give some perspective on, we didn't expect Q1 to be strong. It was going to be our lowest sales quarter. It was going to be our lowest margin quarter. We had some wraps on SG&A.

是的。所以安德魯，當我們最初給出指導時，我們對第一季給了一些顏色，我們試圖給出一些觀點，我們沒想到第一季會很強勁。這將是我們銷售額最低的季度。這將是我們利潤率最低的季度。我們對 SG&A 進行了一些總結。

So we try to put that out there. But as you know, we don't give specific guidance on Q2. So other than the Hebrew National situation, we were in line or better than our internal plans for Q1. It was just different than consensus. And so we'll manage that.

所以我們嘗試把它放在那裡。但如您所知，我們沒有對第二季度給予具體指引。因此，除了希伯來國家隊的情況外，我們第一季的內部計劃符合或更好。這只是與共識不同。所以我們會解決這個問題。

As we look going forward, I gave some color on the call in terms of Q2 and then full year. I did make the comment that Q2 would be our highest trade merchandising quarter of the year. It's also our highest sales quarter of the year by a good amount. So that's part of it.

當我們展望未來時，我對第二季和全年的電話會議進行了一些說明。我確實說過第二季將是我們今年貿易銷售最高的季度。這也是我們今年銷售額最高的季度。這就是其中的一部分。

We do expect some of the key variables going forward. We do expect our absorption to start to the moderate and get positive. That's really important because absorption was a headwind in Q1. That tamped down our gross margins because volumes have been down. But as volumes inflect and get positive, we'll start to see that as more of a tailwind than a headwind. So that's a big part of our forecast.

我們確實預計未來會出現一些關鍵變數。我們確實希望我們的吸收開始變得溫和並變得積極。這非常重要，因為吸收是第一季的不利因素。由於銷量下降，這降低了我們的毛利率。但隨著成交量的變化並變得積極，我們將開始將其視為順風而不是逆風。所以這是我們預測的一個重要部分。

We talked about sales mix in Q1 being unfavorable. We expect that to normalize as we move forward as well. Our productivity, we are very pleased with that in Q1, and we expect that to continue to accelerate as we move forward. So it's pretty much right now playing out like we thought. The two big differences are, one, the Hebrew impact, the lost sales of $27 million, and then the lost -- the overall additional cost and lost profit of $11 million that hit in Q1. And then secondly, we took up our forecast for inflation 20 basis points.

我們談到第一季的銷售組合不利。我們預計隨著我們的前進，這種情況也會正常化。我們對第一季的生產力感到非常滿意，並且我們預計隨著我們的前進，生產力將繼續加速。所以現在的情況幾乎就像我們想像的那樣。兩大差異是，一是希伯來語的影響，銷售額損失 2700 萬美元，然後是第一季的總體額外成本和利潤損失 1100 萬美元。其次，我們將通膨預測上調了 20 個基點。

So those two things, given the momentum we see in productivity, given our expectation that absorption will start to flip, and what we're seeing so far with the strong ROI on our merchandising and our expectation that volumes are going to continue to improve each quarter, we feel like we have a line of sight to offset the two headwinds with Hebrew and inflation, and that's why we're holding guidance. So there's a lot there, but it's pretty consistent with the way we originally built the plan for the year.

因此，考慮到我們在生產力方面看到的勢頭，考慮到我們對吸收率將開始轉變的預期，以及我們迄今為止所看到的商品銷售的強勁投資回報率以及我們對銷量將繼續改善的預期，這兩件事第二季度，我們覺得我們有能力抵銷希伯來文和通貨膨脹的兩個不利因素，這就是我們維持指引的原因。所以有很多東西，但它與我們最初制定今年計劃的方式非常一致。

Alexia Howard, Bernstein.

亞歷克西婭·霍華德，伯恩斯坦。

So two questions. The first one is just about where price/mix goes from here now that we're lapping the tomato product price increase, especially as I think you commented that the trade spend investments are going to be higher next quarter? Then I have a follow-up.

那麼兩個問題。第一個是關於價格/組合從現在開始的走向，因為我們正在接受番茄產品價格的上漲，特別是當我認為您評論說下個季度的貿易支出投資將會更高時？然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes. So as we mentioned, Alexia, we expect our overall sales to continue to improve going forward. So we expect volume improvement each quarter. So a year ago, we expect volumes to be positive. We do expect for the full year that price/mix will be negative, but that rate of decline that we saw -- year-on-year decline that we saw in Q1 should start to moderate going forward.

是的。正如我們所提到的，Alexia，我們預計我們的整體銷售未來將繼續改善。因此，我們預計每季的銷量都會有所改善。因此，一年前，我們預計銷量將為正值。我們確實預計全年價格/組合將為負，但我們看到的下降率——我們在第一季度看到的同比下降應該會開始放緩。

So yes, we have higher merchandising in Q2, but it is a higher sales quarter as well. And it's going into -- it's the holiday -- beginning of the holiday season, so there's some more seasonal promotion there. So I don't want that to be taken out of context that it's above what we planned. It's just the way it flows, Q2, we have more spend given the sales and the seasonal dynamics.

所以，是的，我們在第二季的銷售量較高，但銷售量也較高。現在是假期——假期季節的開始，所以那裡有一些更多的季節性促銷活動。所以我不希望有人斷章取義，認為這超出了我們的計畫。這就是它的流動方式，第二季度，考慮到銷售和季節性動態，我們有更多的支出。

Got it. And then as a follow-up, more of a sort of taking a step back question. For a number of years, you've been focusing less on advertising and promotion within the SG&A line and maybe a little bit more on promotional, though I recognize that today you laid out that promotional spending is still pretty rational. I think in fiscal '24, your advertising spend was at about 2.5% of sales, 2.4%, which seems lower than the peer average.

知道了。然後作為後續行動，更多的是一種退後一步的問題。多年來，您一直較少關注SG＆A線內的廣告和促銷，也許更多地關注促銷，儘管我認識到今天您指出促銷支出仍然相當理性。我認為在 24 財年，你們的廣告支出約為銷售額的 2.5%、2.4%，這似乎低於同業平均。

Is there -- the share trends are looking good, but is the category growth being affected by some of that pullback particularly in light of the fairly significant pullback that you saw this quarter?

股票趨勢看起來不錯，但類別成長是否受到某些回檔的影響，特別是考慮到本季相當顯著的回檔？

Yeah, sure, Alexia. The investment we make in brand building, which is how I'll frame it as opposed to what's in the A&P line below the line, is in multiple places in the P&L. The place where we put probably significantly more emphasis than some of our peers in terms of investing in brand building actually goes into COGS. And it shows up in higher quality product innovations, more innovation, and higher quality packaging innovation.

是的，當然，亞歷克西婭。我們在品牌建立方面的投資，這就是我將如何建構它，而不是在A＆P線中的線下，是在損益表的多個地方。在品牌建立投資方面，我們可能比一些同業更加重視，實際上是在銷貨成本上。它體現在更高品質的產品創新、更多的創新、更高品質的包裝創新。

So we are probably more relentless, and we have greater scope in terms of the magnitude of the innovation we do on an annual basis. And that has been the key to us driving category health over time. Look at frozen, as an example, almost 10 years ago now, we said we're going to turn the frozen category, frozen meals category from a decliner to a grower. That has happened on the back of unmatched innovation as opposed to unmatched A&P.

因此，我們可能更加堅持不懈，而且我們每年進行的創新規模也更大。隨著時間的推移，這一直是我們推動品類健康發展的關鍵。以冷凍食品為例，大約 10 年前，我們表示我們要將冷凍類別、冷凍食品類別從衰退者轉變為成長者。這是在無與倫比的創新而不是無與倫比的 A&P 的支持下發生的。

Now within the A&P line, what we've done over the years is we've taken the rate from 4%-ish to 2.5%, largely by eliminating nonworking dollars and eliminating low ROI investments like traditional in-line TV. Instead, we focus our A&P investments largely in the digital social realm, in particular, in the last number of years, as you've seen TikTok, Insta, working with influencers because our brand resonance and our innovation success has been terrific. It's just we managed to do that as efficiently as we can so that we can continue to invest more in the COGS line in the form of unmatched innovation.

現在，在 A&P 領域，我們多年來所做的就是將費率從 4% 左右提高到 2.5%，主要是透過消除非工作資金和消除傳統線上電視等低投資回報率投資。相反，我們的 A&P 投資主要集中在數位社交領域，特別是在過去幾年，正如你所看到的 TikTok、Insta 與影響者合作，因為我們的品牌共鳴和創新成功非常出色。只是我們設法盡可能高效地做到這一點，以便我們能夠繼續以無與倫比的創新形式對 COGS 系列進行更多投資。

Leah Jordan, Goldman Sachs.

利亞·喬丹，高盛。

I just wanted to follow up on the snacking discussion. Great to see the share gains you called out in that category broadly. But meat stick is a notable one missing, and you noted it's a high-growth category. Maybe you could comment on how you see the competitive environment there, the positioning of Slim Jim today and any potential outlook for more distribution opportunities, and more color on how the new Fatty edition plays into all of that.

我只是想跟進有關零食的討論。很高興看到您在該類別中廣泛呼籲的份額增長。但肉棒是一個值得注意的缺失，你指出這是一個高成長的類別。也許你可以評論一下你如何看待那裡的競爭環境、《Slim Jim》今天的定位以及更多發行機會的潛在前景，以及更多關於新 Fatty 版本如何參與所有這些的色彩。

Yeah. Great question. Here's what's happening in meat snacks and meat sticks specifically, and it's super interesting. The category is really poised for material growth because you've got an $80 billion-ish overall snack space, and there's a lot of potential shifting that we're beginning to see here from more carb- or sugar-laden snacks into protein snacks specifically, protein snacks broadly and meat sticks specifically.

是的。很好的問題。這是肉類零食和肉棒中發生的具體情況，非常有趣。這個類別確實已經做好了實質成長的準備，因為零食整體空間價值 800 億美元左右，而且我們開始看到從富含碳水化合物或糖的零食到蛋白質零食的巨大潛在轉變，廣義上是蛋白質零食，具體來說是肉棒。

When categories experience explosive growth like that, one of the first things you'll see is the addition of more variety. So if you think of a large category like cookies or, back in the old days, cereal, you would see a lot of varieties emerge as categories grow. That's a normal thing, and that's what we've seen in the meat sticks world. And one of the new additions to the meat stick space was fatty smoked meat sticks. And so we've been tracking that business since its inception.

當類別經歷這樣的爆炸性增長時，您首先看到的事情之一就是增加了更多的多樣性。因此，如果您考慮像餅乾或過去的麥片這樣的大類別，您會發現隨著類別的增長，會出現許多品種。這是很正常的事情，這就是我們在肉棒世界中看到的。肉棒領域的新產品之一是脂肪燻肉棒。因此，自該業務成立以來，我們一直在追蹤該業務。

It's additive to what we do with Slim Jim because Slim Jim skews to a younger demographic. Fatty is a more sophisticated product, more premium product that skews to an older demographic. So it's incremental, and we thought it was a terrific fit to our portfolio with Slim Jim and Duke's. And as I said, now we've got the trifecta Smokehouse, which we're already the market leader in the fastest-growing snacking space in meat sticks, and now we've got another arrow in our quiver.

它是我們對 Slim Jim 所做的事情的補充，因為 Slim Jim 偏向年輕族群。 Fatty 是一種更複雜、更優質的產品，主要針對老年人。所以它是增量的，我們認為它非常適合我們與 Slim Jim 和 Duke 的投資組合。正如我所說，現在我們已經有了三連勝煙屋，我們已經是成長最快的肉棒零食領域的市場領導者，現在我們的箭袋裡又多了一支箭。

Great. And for my follow-up, also in the prepared remarks, you said you expect the consumer to remain challenged. Have you seen any shifts in behavior across your brands given the wide portfolio?

偉大的。對於我的後續行動，也在準備好的發言中，您說您希望消費者繼續面臨挑戰。鑑於產品組合廣泛，您是否發現您的品牌行為發生了任何變化？

And then just given this assumption that they remain challenged, I guess, why should promotional activity not revert back further to historical norms given they're still below 2019 levels? Are they responding to promotional activity differently anyway in the current environment?

然後，考慮到它們仍然面臨挑戰，我想，既然促銷活動仍低於 2019 年的水平，為什麼不應該進一步恢復到歷史正常水平呢？在當前環境下，他們對促銷活動的反應是否有所不同？

Sure. Well, it's -- what's happening in the world of promotions is predictable in my eyes because promotions were suppressed because there were supply chain issues. They've moved back toward prepandemic levels, but I think the key thing for me to see is that it remains rational.

當然。嗯，在我看來，促銷領域發生的事情是可以預見的，因為供應鏈問題導致促銷活動受到抑制。它們已經回到了大流行前的水平，但我認為對我來說最重要的是它仍然是理性的。

Our promotional activity has been very specific. Number one, it has been targeted in frozen. And number two, it has been about quality merchandising frequency and not depth. It's really a reminder effect that it has in the shopping experience. But one of the things that we've seen when we mentioned the consumer is challenged is there is still value-seeking behavior happening. And we have a broad and diverse portfolio, and we have some products that offer exceptional value.

我們的促銷活動非常具體。第一，它已成為凍結的目標。第二，品質行銷的頻率而不是深度。這確實是購物體驗中的提醒效果。但當我們提到消費者面臨挑戰時，我們看到的一件事是仍然存在價值尋求行為。我們擁有廣泛且多樣化的產品組合，並且我們擁有一些具有非凡價值的產品。

Some of those products are the products that we have promoted and we put on display. And what we've seen when we've done that is incredibly high lifts versus what we might have historically seen. That's one of the things that is creating a mix effect on a dollar per unit basis that Dave talked about. But that's perfectly fine in our mind because those products, while they might be a negative mix at dollar sales, the gross margins tend to be equivalent.

其中一些產品是我們推廣和展示的產品。當我們這樣做時，我們所看到的升力與我們歷史上可能看到的相比是令人難以置信的高升力。這是戴夫談到的以每單位美元為基礎產生混合效應的因素之一。但在我們看來，這完全沒問題，因為這些產品雖然在美元銷售額上可能是負面組合，但毛利率往往是相等的。

So what we're really doing is offering a value-seeking consumer a tremendous value through the form of promotion and getting really good lifts, which is great because we bring households back to our portfolio, and that's ultimately what we're trying to do for the long-term cash flows of the business is keep that relationship strong with our households.

因此，我們真正要做的是透過促銷和獲得真正良好的提升的形式為追求價值的消費者提供巨大的價值，這很棒，因為我們讓家庭重新回到我們的投資組合中，這就是我們最終想要做的對企業的長期現金流來說，就是與我們的家庭保持牢固的關係。

Nik Modi, RBC.

尼克莫迪，加拿大皇家銀行。

Sean, wondering if you could just opine on all the noise between the out-of-home and in-home, like you have obviously restaurant traffic has been weak. We've seen a lot of the foodservice businesses that many consumer companies have struggled over the past few months and quarters. But then you also have these very sharp price points at some of the QSRs and value meals, and I have to assume that there's some interplay. So I would just love your observations on what you guys are seeing from that standpoint from a consumer behavior perspective.

肖恩，想知道您是否可以對戶外和室內之間的所有噪音發表意見，就像您顯然餐廳客流量一直很弱一樣。我們看到許多消費品公司在過去幾個月和幾季中陷入困境的許多餐飲服務業務。但一些快餐和超值餐也有非常尖銳的價格點，我必須假設其中存在一些交互作用。因此，我希望你們能從消費者行為的角度觀察你們所看到的情況。

Well, I think of it in the simplest sense, as people seek value, you do see trade downs. And one of the obvious trade downs you see is within away-from-home eating and the types of restaurants people eat at, more toward value types of restaurants and then from away from home into the grocery store. And so we've seen that.

嗯，我從最簡單的意義上考慮，當人們尋求價值時，你確實會看到交易下降。你看到的明顯的權衡之一是外出用餐和人們就餐的餐廳類型，更傾向於有價值的餐廳類型，然後是外出用餐進入雜貨店。我們已經看到了這一點。

Our focus in foodservice, as you've heard in our remarks today, in this kind of unusual environment has been to protect the margin that we worked so hard to claw back after COVID and after the pricing super cycle, and we've managed to do that. One of the ways we've managed to do that is by exiting some unprofitable business, which obviously pressures the top line, but we think it's the right thing to do for the long term.

正如您在今天的演講中所聽到的，我們在餐飲服務方面的重點是在這種不尋常的環境下保護我們在新冠疫情和定價超級週期之後努力收回的利潤，我們已經成功地做到了這一點。我們設法做到這一點的方法之一是退出一些無利可圖的業務，這顯然給營收帶來了壓力，但我們認為從長遠來看這是正確的做法。

But the foodservice dynamic you're poking at is really just -- it goes under the banner of continued value-seeking behavior. It's happening from away from home into the store, and then it's happening within the stores. But ultimately, what people will pivot to are the benefit areas that are most necessary for them to live their lives. And as I mentioned, convenience is pretty much at the top of the list.

但你所探討的餐飲服務動態其實是在持續追求價值行為的旗幟下進行的。它從家外發生到商店，然後發生在商店內。但最終，人們將轉向他們生活最需要的受益領域。正如我所提到的，便利性幾乎是重中之重。

And maybe if I can ask the other question just on the input costs and anything that you would highlight in terms of things that are moving in the right or wrong direction, just to give us a state of the union there would be helpful.

也許如果我可以問另一個關於投入成本的問題，以及您在朝著正確或錯誤方向發展的事情方面強調的任何問題，只是為了向我們提供一份國情咨文，那將會有所幫助。

Sure, Nik. So to take it from the top, we had originally estimated our overall inflation, and that's everything that's material in our manufacturing and our transportation, warehousing, we had estimated that as a 3% increase for the year. We're now estimating at 3.2%.

當然，尼克。因此，從頂部來看，我們最初估計了我們的整體通膨，這就是我們的製造、運輸、倉儲中的所有材料，我們預計今年的成長為 3%。我們現在估計為 3.2%。

The biggest change is in some of the material areas. And really, for us, it's coming down to just a few things. Our -- we spend a lot on beef in our inputs, and we're seeing double-digit inflation even higher than we originally estimated. And it's just -- it's a supply issue, just the lack of herd expansion, lower cattle weights from the heat. We're just seeing the impacts of this on our forecast for beef, and it's a big spend for us.

最大的變化是在一些材質方面。事實上，對我們來說，這只是幾件事。我們在牛肉投入上投入了大量資金，而且我們看到兩位數的通貨膨脹甚至比我們最初估計的還要高。這只是——這是一個供應問題，只是牛群擴張不足，牛體重因高溫而降低。我們剛剛看到這對我們對牛肉預測的影響，這對我們來說是一筆很大的支出。

Another one is sweeteners. There's just some tighter supply conditions driven mostly by the drought. So double-digit inflation in these -- what are big input categories for us. We're seeing some other more moderate inflation areas like chicken. We're seeing inflation in milk, but that's a smaller spend for us.

另一種是甜味劑。主要是由於乾旱，供應狀況出現了一些緊張。因此，兩位數的通貨膨脹對我們來說是重要的投入類別。我們也看到其他一些通膨較為溫和的領域，例如雞肉。我們看到牛奶價格上漲，但這對我們來說是一個較小的支出。

So it's really coming down to a handful of categories that we watch closely, and we manage everything we can do. If we can take positions and try to manage that the best we can, we do. But that's our latest call on where we see the overall inflation.

因此，這實際上取決於我們密切關注的幾個類別，並且我們管理我們所能做的一切。如果我們能夠採取立​​場並盡力做到最好，我們就會這麼做。但這是我們對整體通膨情況的最新預測。

Peter Galbo, Bank of America.

彼得‧加爾博，美國銀行。

Dave, thanks for the detail on the beef cycle, always a fun topic. I maybe just wanted to make a clarification on Hebrew National. Just given the seasonality in that business and then Sean, I think in your comments, it shouldn't be that we expect really a meaningful rebound now that it's behind you in the rest of the year. It's kind of -- we have to wait more until grilling season of next year. And I think you had a similar issue with fish sticks a few years ago, so maybe you can just clarify that.

戴夫，感謝您提供有關牛肉週期的詳細信息，這始終是一個有趣的話題。我也許只是想對希伯來國家隊做出澄清。考慮到該業務的季節性，然後肖恩，我認為在您的評論中，我們不應該期望真正有意義的反彈，因為它在今年剩餘時間裡已經過去了。有點——我們必須再等一下，直到明年的燒烤季節。我認為幾年前您在魚條方面也遇到過類似的問題，所以也許您可以澄清一下。

Hotdogs is a business that has a baseline. But on top of that baseline between Memorial Day and Labor Day, Pete, there is a seasonal spike. So if you miss out on a good chunk of that, you don't get it back to the following season. You're absolutely right.

熱狗是一家有底線的企業。但皮特，除了陣亡將士紀念日和勞動節之間的基線之外，還有季節性高峰。因此，如果你錯過了其中很大一部分，你就無法在下一季中獲得它。你是絕對正確的。

Okay. And then maybe, Sean, you spent some time talking about snacking and Slim Jim is obviously a pretty important product in the convenience store channel. There's been a lot of debate, I think, amongst investors just around the cyclical versus structural nature of convenience store traffic declines. So just curious, anything you're hearing from the demand science team or just views there on how you're thinking about that channel specifically within snacking.

好的。 Sean，也許你花了一些時間談論零食，而 Slim Jim 顯然是便利商店通路中非常重要的產品。我認為，圍繞著便利商店客流量下降的周期性與結構性性質，投資者之間存在著許多爭論。所以只是好奇，你從需求科學團隊聽到的任何訊息，或者只是看到你如何看待零食領域的這個管道。

Sure. Well, it's obviously a huge channel in the snacking space, but as you all well know, there has been a fair amount of channel shifting literally from the onset of COVID through today. At the beginning of COVID, it was because people were moving out of big stores into small stores because they thought it was safer. And then after COVID passed, then we had the pricing super cycle, and then it was the pursuit of value. So you saw more volume moving through club stores and mass merch. And you also saw foodservice at the peak of inflation cycles, not foodservice -- convenience can be challenged because people get their gas and they may not go into the store.

當然。嗯，這顯然是零食領域的一個巨大管道，但眾所周知，從新冠疫情爆發到今天，確實有相當多的管道發生了轉變。在新冠疫情爆發之初，人們從大商店搬到小商店，因為他們認為這樣比較安全。然後疫情過去之後，我們就出現了定價超級週期，然後就是對價值的追求。因此，您會看到俱樂部商店和大眾商品的銷售增加。而且您還看到了通貨膨脹週期高峰期的餐飲服務，而不是餐飲服務——便利性可能會受到挑戰，因為人們得到了汽油，但他們可能不會去商店。

Those tend to be kind of cyclical transitory dynamics. So we try to remain agile. I think what we're seeing right now is to the degree there's any temporary softness in convenience stores, you tend to see strength in mass merchant club as an example. So it's just a -- we've got huge businesses with all of these customers. We've got to be agile and meet the shopper where they are.

這些往往是一種週期性的短暫動態。所以我們努力保持敏捷。我認為我們現在看到的是便利商店暫時疲軟，你往往會看到大眾商業俱樂部的強勢作為一個例子。所以這只是——我們與所有這些客戶都有龐大的業務。我們必須保持敏捷並滿足購物者的位置。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

羅伯特·莫斯科，TD·考恩。

Dave, I was wondering if you could help us in refrigerated and frozen just how to think about price mix going forward. Have you fully lapped the price rollbacks that you -- I think you had last year in frozen entrees and maybe some other categories? And therefore, does that level off? And then also, was there more deflation pass-through in margarine, I guess? Do we -- are you still living with that for the next few quarters? And then a quick follow-up.

戴夫，我想知道你是否可以幫助我們在冷藏和冷凍方面如何考慮未來的價格組合。您是否完全接受了去年冷凍主菜以及其他一些類別的價格回滾？因此，這種情況會趨於平穩嗎？另外，我猜人造奶油是否有更多的通貨緊縮傳遞？在接下來的幾個季度裡，您是否仍然忍受這種情況？然後快速跟進。

Yeah. So Rob, in terms of the cadence of price mix for refrigerated and frozen, we'll still see some reduction in negative price mix in Q2. As we go through Q2, we'll start to wrap. So the second half, we will be fully wrapped on that. So we shouldn't see kind of the down driver on that in terms of timing.

是的。因此，羅布，就冷藏和冷凍價格組合的節奏而言，我們仍然會看到第二季負價格組合減少。當我們完成第二季時，我們將開始總結。所以下半年，我們將全力以赴。因此，我們不應該在時間上看到這種下降的因素。

But what was your second question?

但你的第二個問題是什麼？

Is there like a deflation pass-through just on like commodity-related oils in this division, like for margarine, for example?

該部門中與大宗商品相關的石油（例如人造奶油）是否存在通貨緊縮傳遞？

Yeah. So we've seen deflation in our edible fats and oils, and so we have passed that through. And that was in my comments today. We've had pass-through price reductions on our spreads businesses, which are obviously prominently oils.

是的。因此，我們已經看到食用油脂出現通貨緊縮，因此我們已經度過了這段時期。這就是我今天的評論。我們對價差業務進行了傳遞性降價，其中顯然主要是石油。

Okay. So that continues for the rest of the -- that continues for the year unless there's a change in the underlying commodity.

好的。因此，除非基礎商品發生變化，否則這種情況將持續到今年的剩餘時間。

Yeah, but that's where -- After Q2, we're wrapping on that.

是的，但這就是——第二季度之後，我們將結束這一點。

You're wrapping on that, too. Okay, okay. And then a follow-up. There's a discrepancy, I think, between the IRI data and the Nielsen data on your meat snacks sales.

你也正在討論這一點。好吧，好吧。然後是後續行動。我認為，IRI 數據和尼爾森肉類零食銷售數據之間存在差異。

Your presentation today says things look pretty strong. Nielsen is a little different. Like is this a -- do you think that this data -- is your meat snacks business up year over year in the quarter overall in retail and in your shipments?

你今天的演講顯示情況看起來相當強勁。尼爾森有點不同。就像這個——您認為這個數據嗎——您的肉類零食業務在本季度的整體零售和出貨量方面是否同比增長？

Rob, I can't speak to the difference between the two data sources. We're just showing you the strength we've got in the business overall. But we're very pleased with where we are, and we're very pleased to add fatty to the mix. But as you can see from the data, the universe we compete in is significantly outpacing the broader snacks universe, and we are participating in that.

羅布，我無法說出這兩個資料來源之間的差異。我們只是向您展示我們在整個業務中的實力。但我們對目前的狀況非常滿意，並且很高興在混合物中添加脂肪。但正如您從數據中看到的那樣，我們競爭的領域明顯超過了更廣泛的零食領域，我們正在參與其中。

For Slim Jim from the IRI data, for the quarter, we're seeing volume increases, little below 1% volume increase in Slim Jim.

從 IRI 數據來看，對於 Slim Jim，本季的銷量有所成長，略低於 1%。

Okay. What about dollars though, David, is that up as well? Or is that down a little?

好的。那麼美元呢，大衛，也漲了嗎？或者說是下降了一點？

Dollars are down slightly.

美元小幅下跌。

Tom Palmer, Citi.

湯姆·帕爾默，花旗銀行。

You noted the higher lifts from items on promotion. And I guess, ultimately, a portion of the percentage of sales on promo are driven by consumer decisions and not just what's on shelf. I was wondering about the frequency of promotions on shelf. Relative to prepandemic levels, do you think that's back to full levels? Or do you think maybe we'll see some changes there still to come?

您注意到促銷商品的升力較高。我想，最終，促銷銷售額的一部分是由消費者的決定所驅動的，而不僅僅是貨架上的商品。我想知道貨架上促銷的頻率。相對於大流行前的水平，您認為這是否回到了正常水平？或者您認為也許我們還會看到一些變化？

Well, the quality promotion that we try to drive on -- and particularly, it has been on our frozen business and mostly within our biggest frozen business with single-serve meals, we try to drive quality display. So we try to -- in addition to just our normal shelf space in the frozen aisle, we try to get into the end caps because that is ultimately what drives the highest lift as opposed to just a tag on the shelf that has a modest price decline. So it's quality display at the end of the frozen aisle is really what we're after to drive those maximum lifts.

嗯，我們試圖推動的優質促銷——特別是在我們的冷凍業務上，主要是在我們最大的單份冷凍業務中，我們試圖推動品質展示。因此，除了冷凍通道中的正常貨架空間外，我們還嘗試進入端蓋，因為這最終是推動最高升力的因素，而不是僅僅在貨架上貼上價格適中的標籤。因此，在冰凍過道盡頭的高品質顯示確實是我們推動最大升力所追求的。

And a quick one on Ardent. It was a bit light of the implied run rate for the year. I know there can be fluctuations, but this was the lowest in almost three years. Just any kind of thoughts on when we might see the rebound in that business and if there was anything notable to think about in 1Q that maybe drove the slight downside.

還有關於 Ardent 的快速介紹。這與今年的隱含運行率相比有點輕。我知道可能會有波動，但這是近三年來的最低水準。關於我們何時會看到該業務的反彈以及第一季是否有任何值得注意的事情可能導致輕微下行的任何想法。

No, and I mentioned on my comments, and we've talked about it before, Ardent's results can fluctuate based on volatility with the wheat market. So the core business of Ardent and the milling and selling of flower products at a margin is very strong. They do a great job servicing customers. The remaining business is this commodity revenue, and that's the more volatile part of the business. And it can be volatile where it's a bit down and then it can be -- it can go the other way and be positive.

不，我在評論中提到過，我們之前已經討論過，Ardent 的結果可能會根據小麥市場的波動而波動。因此，Ardent的核心業務以及花卉產品的加工和毛利銷售非常強勁。他們在為客戶服務方面做得很好。剩下的業務就是商品收入，這是業務中波動性較大的部分。當它有點下跌時，它可能會波動，然後它可以 - 它可以朝另一個方向發展並變得積極。

So we're holding our forecast for the year with Ardent. There is going to be some volatility, but we were a little bit softer than we wanted to be in Q1, but we're holding the year right now because the volatility can really swing both ways.

因此，我們維持對 Ardent 今年的預測。將會出現一些波動，但我們在第一季的表現比我們想要的要軟一些，但我們現在堅持今年，因為波動確實可以雙向波動。

Max Gumport, BNP Paribas.

馬克斯‧岡波特，法國巴黎銀行。

With regard to the expectation for volumes to improve through the year, is that really a category dynamic or is it a market share expectation?

關於今年銷售成長的預期，這真的是一個品類動態還是市場佔有率預期？

It's a mix, Max. We've got a fair -- a good percentage of our categories are growing, which is great to see. But the share, as you saw in our numbers, is share strength is broad-based, particularly in the key domains of frozen snacks.

這是一個混合體，麥克斯。我們有一個公平的——我們的類別中有很大一部分正在增長，這是很高興看到的。但正如您在我們的數據中看到的那樣，份額的強度是廣泛的，特別是在冷凍零食的關鍵領域。

Great. Yeah. And on that market share, you're right. I mean, it does look quite impressive. I think that was a highlight for the quarter. And I'm curious what you think the key drivers are for the outperformance on a volume basis?

偉大的。是的。就市場佔有率而言，你是對的。我的意思是，它看起來確實令人印象深刻。我認為這是本季的亮點。我很好奇您認為銷售量優異的關鍵驅動因素是什麼？

And then do you think there's any help you're getting on volume market share because you perhaps invested in price first? It feels maybe similar to what you were talking about a couple of years ago but also taking price first and lapping that price increase first. I just wonder if you're still ahead of your competitors in that cycle?

然後，您認為因為您首先投資於價格，對您獲得銷售市場份額有什麼幫助嗎？感覺可能與您幾年前談論的類似，但也是先考慮價格並首先考慮價格上漲。我只是想知道在這個週期中你是否仍然領先於你的競爭對手？

It's a good question. It's a different answer in each of the domains. So if you take the frozen space first, what we see happening in the frozen space is the category has returned to growth, driven by Conagra basically. We -- the category goes in frozen as we go. So what we've done there is not deep discounting.

這是一個好問題。每個領域都有不同的答案。因此，如果你先考慮冷凍空間，我們看到冷凍空間中發生的情況是該類別已恢復成長，基本上是由康尼格拉推動的。我們——這個類別隨著我們的發展而凍結。所以我們在那裡所做的並不是大幅折扣。

So I would not put under the heading of major price incentives. We saw the consumer desire to get back to convenience. We saw the fatigue on some of the scratch cooking. And so we nudged them along by giving them a shallow discount, but importantly, getting the product to -- in the end of the aisle in a display so we can remind them.

因此，我不會將其歸入重大價格激勵措施的標題下。我們看到消費者渴望恢復便利。我們看到了一些臨時做飯的疲勞。因此，我們透過給他們一個小折扣來推動他們，但重要的是，把產品放在過道的盡頭展示，這樣我們就可以提醒他們。

And we've seen good responsiveness there. And that typically is what happens. That drives strength in the category and outsized strength for our portfolio.

我們在那裡看到了良好的響應能力。這通常就是發生的情況。這推動了該類別的實力以及我們投資組合的巨大實力。

In snacks, I think you're dealing with a little bit of a different dynamic because we've been -- we started later in terms of more merchandising support on snacks there. It has been about price pack architecture to help the value seekers. So in the case of Slim Jims, it's selling smaller sizes, things like that.

在零食方面，我認為你正在處理一些不同的動態，因為我們後來開始為那裡的零食提供更多的銷售支援。它是關於價格包架構來幫助價值尋求者的。因此，就 Slim Jims 而言，它銷售的是較小尺寸的產品，諸如此類。

But the big tailwind on our snacking business is when it comes to share and overall growth is just what we talked about earlier, which is a pivot toward permissible snacking, particularly high-protein, high-fiber choices.

但我們零食業務的一大推動力是份額和整體成長，這正是我們之前談到的，這是轉向允許的零食，特別是高蛋白、高纖維選擇的關鍵。

And ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we'll be ending the question-and-answer session. I'll be turning the floor back over to Melissa for any closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，此時我們將結束問答環節。我將把發言權交還給梅麗莎，讓她發表結束語。

So once again, thank you all for joining us for our call this morning, and please reach out to Investor Relations with any additional questions.

再次感謝大家今天早上參加我們的電話會議，如有任何其他問題，請聯絡投資者關係部。

And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll be concluding the question-and-answer session and presentation for today. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，我們今天的問答環節和示範就到此結束。我們非常感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。