康尼格拉食品 (CAG) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Conagra Brands Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note today's event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 Conagra Brands 2023 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意今天的活動正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Melissa Napier, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議轉交給投資者關係主管 Melissa Napier。請繼續。

Good morning. Thanks for joining us for the Conagra Brands Third Quarter and First 9 Months of Fiscal 2023 earnings call. I'm here with Sean Connolly, our CEO; and Dave Marberger, our CFO, who will discuss our business performance. We'll take your questions when our prepared remarks conclude.

早上好。感謝您加入我們參加康尼格拉品牌公司 2023 財年第三季度和前 9 個月的財報電話會議。我和我們的 CEO Sean Connolly 一起來的；和我們的首席財務官 Dave Marberger，他將討論我們的業務績效。當我們準備好的評論結束時，我們將回答您的問題。

On today's call, we will be making some forward-looking statements. And while we are making these statements in good faith, we do not have any guarantees about the results we will achieve. Descriptions of our risk factors are included in the documents we filed with the SEC.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將發表一些前瞻性聲明。雖然我們是出於善意做出這些聲明，但我們對我們將取得的結果沒有任何保證。我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中包含對我們風險因素的描述。

We will also be discussing some non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP and adjusted numbers refer to measures that exclude items management believes impacts the comparability for the period referenced. Please see the earnings release for additional information on our comparability items. The GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations can be found in the earnings press release and the slides that we'll be reviewing on today's call, both of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

我們還將討論一些非 GAAP 財務指標。這些非 GAAP 和調整後的數字指的是不包括管理層認為影響參考期間可比性的項目的措施。有關我們的可比性項目的更多信息，請參閱收益發布。 GAAP 與非 GAAP 對賬可以在收益新聞稿和我們將在今天的電話會議上審查的幻燈片中找到，兩者都可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

And I'll now turn the call over to Sean.

我現在將電話轉給肖恩。

Thanks, Melissa. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our third quarter fiscal '23 earnings call. Slide 5 outlines what we'd like you to take away from today's call. Our top priority coming into fiscal year 2023 was margin recovery following the unprecedented environment of the last 2 years with COVID and the inflation supercycle.

謝謝，梅麗莎。大家早上好，感謝您參加我們第三季度的 23 財年財報電話會議。幻燈片 5 概述了我們希望您從今天的電話會議中獲得的信息。進入 2023 財年，我們的首要任務是在過去 2 年前所未有的 COVID 和通脹超級週期環境之後恢復利潤率。

To facilitate that margin recovery, our executional focus has been on inflation-justified pricing, supply chain improvements and the pruning of low-margin volume, a strategy we have successfully deployed before and refer to as value over volume. And 3/4 of the way into the year, our plan is working.

為了促進利潤率的恢復，我們的執行重點一直放在通貨膨脹合理定價、供應鏈改進和減少低利潤率的數量上，這是我們之前成功部署的一項戰略，被稱為價值高於數量。今年已經過去 3/4，我們的計劃正在奏效。

In Q3, we delivered our second consecutive quarter of strong gross margin recovery, our pricing execution continued to be excellent while elasticities remain muted and consistent. Our volume performance again led our near-end peers versus our pre-pandemic baseline and our supply chain continued to improve with service levels exceeding 90%.

在第三季度，我們實現了連續第二個季度強勁的毛利率回升，我們的定價執行繼續出色，而彈性保持低迷且一致。與大流行前的基線相比，我們的銷量表現再次領先我們的近端同行，我們的供應鏈繼續改善，服務水平超過 90%。

This improvement allowed us to rebuild inventories to appropriate levels and support most of the strong demand from our customers, but there were exceptions as we experienced temporary manufacturing disruptions in certain categories that prevented us from being in stock. Despite this, we had strong results in the quarter overall, and we are updating our guidance for the year, including increasing our expectations for adjusted EPS growth and tightening the ranges for net sales growth and operating margins.

這一改進使我們能夠將庫存重建到適當的水平，並支持客戶的大部分強勁需求，但也有例外，因為我們在某些類別中遇到了暫時的製造中斷，導致我們沒有庫存。儘管如此，我們在本季度整體上取得了強勁的業績，我們正在更新我們今年的指引，包括提高我們對調整後每股收益增長的預期，並收緊淨銷售額增長和營業利潤率的範圍。

With that overview, let's dive into the results on Slide 6. We delivered organic net sales of approximately $3.1 billion representing a 6.1% increase over the prior year period. Our adjusted gross margin of 28.1% represents a 409 basis point increase over the third quarter of last year, and our adjusted operating margin of 16.9% represents a 321 basis point increase over that same period.

有了這個概述，讓我們深入了解幻燈片 6 的結果。我們的有機淨銷售額約為 31 億美元，比去年同期增長 6.1%。我們調整後的毛利率為 28.1%，比去年第三季度增長 409 個基點，我們調整後的營業利潤率為 16.9%，比同期增長 321 個基點。

Adjusted EPS rose 31% from last year to $0.76 per share. The year-to-date results underscore the strength of our performance with growth across all four metrics including 8.1% organic net sales growth compared to the prior year period and the robust margin improvements we set out to achieve at the beginning of the year.

調整後的每股收益比去年增長 31% 至每股 0.76 美元。今年迄今的業績凸顯了我們的業績實力，所有四項指標都實現了增長，包括與去年同期相比 8.1% 的有機淨銷售額增長，以及我們在年初設定的強勁利潤率改善。

Slide 7 shows the sustained recovery of our gross profit margin for a second consecutive quarter. Again, this margin recovery was our top priority for the year. Why? Because our gross margins fund our innovation program, and that innovation has been the centerpiece of our playbook and our success in driving sustained category growth in our two strategic focus areas frozen and snacks. This recovery, therefore, means you should continue to expect a relentless stream of provocative innovation and brand-building support as we go forward.

幻燈片 7 顯示我們的毛利率連續第二個季度持續回升。同樣，利潤率的恢復是我們今年的首要任務。為什麼？因為我們的毛利率為我們的創新計劃提供了資金，而創新一直是我們劇本的核心，也是我們在冷凍食品和零食這兩個戰略重點領域推動持續類別增長的成功。因此，這種複蘇意味著在我們前進的過程中，您應該繼續期待源源不斷的刺激性創新和品牌建設支持。

In fact, looking at Slide 8, you can see that Conagra is one of the only companies in our peer set whose gross margins are essentially on par with pre-pandemic levels. Importantly, our brand strength and innovation pipeline position us well to maintain solid growth and healthy gross margin going forward. As I mentioned at the beginning of the call, our sales growth was primarily driven by inflation justified price increases coupled with ongoing muted elasticities.

事實上，看看幻燈片 8，您會發現康尼格拉是我們同行中僅有的幾家毛利率與大流行前水平基本持平的公司之一。重要的是，我們的品牌實力和創新渠道使我們能夠很好地保持穩健的增長和健康的毛利率。正如我在電話會議開始時提到的那樣，我們的銷售增長主要是由通貨膨脹合理的價格上漲以及持續的低彈性推動的。

Slide 9 shows the relationship between elasticities and price increases. As you can see, elasticities have remained remarkably consistent and benign over the last 8 quarters, even as we increased the price per unit of our products to help offset ongoing COGS inflation.

幻燈片 9 顯示了彈性與價格上漲之間的關係。正如您所看到的，在過去 8 個季度中，即使我們提高了產品的單位價格以幫助抵消持續的 COGS 通脹，彈性仍然非常穩定和良性。

And Slide 10 shows our elasticities are among the best in the industry. The modest elasticities, which are well below historic norms and have remained consistent in the face of our inflation-justified price increases are a testament to the strength of our brands, the execution of our pricing strategy and the limited impact of private label competition.

幻燈片 10 顯示我們的彈性在業內名列前茅。適度的彈性遠低於歷史標準，並且在我們的通脹合理價格上漲面前保持一致，這證明了我們品牌的實力、我們定價策略的執行以及自有品牌競爭的有限影響。

Turning to Slide 11. As you can see, at the total Conagra level, retail sales grew by 5.5% compared to the third quarter of last year and by 24.7% compared to 3 years ago. To put some context around the 5.5% number, three points: first, there was a fair amount of noise in the year-over-year comps for the peer set in Q3. Some companies had a very weak year ago period due to supply chain challenges while we had pockets of real strength in the year ago period due to Omicron and strong customer support for products that had recently come off allocation.

轉到幻燈片 11。如您所見，在整個 Conagra 層面，零售額與去年第三季度相比增長了 5.5%，與 3 年前相比增長了 24.7%。為了說明 5.5% 的數字，三點：首先，在第三季度的同行中，同比比較有相當大的噪音。由於供應鏈挑戰，一些公司在去年同期非常疲軟，而由於 Omicron 和對最近分配的產品的強大客戶支持，我們在去年同期擁有真正的實力。

Second, we continue to prune low-margin volume, most notably resuming our opportunistic value over volume strategy on select brands. This included eliminating 10 for 10 promotions on both value tier vegetables and canned products such as Chef Boyardee and Hunt's Tomatoes.

其次，我們繼續削減低利潤率的銷量，最顯著的是恢復我們對精選品牌的機會主義價值高於銷量的策略。這包括取消超值蔬菜和罐頭產品（例如 Chef Boyardee 和 Hunt's Tomatoes）的 10 送 10 促銷活動。

Third, we experienced manufacturing disruptions in certain categories that led to out-of-stocks in the quarter. Most notably impacted where our canned meals and sides businesses, specifically canned pasta, canned beans, canned chili and canned meat, all part of our grocery portfolio.

第三，我們在某些類別中經歷了製造中斷，導致本季度缺貨。最顯著的影響是我們的罐頭食品和配菜業務，特別是意大利面罐頭、豆類罐頭、辣椒罐頭和肉類罐頭，它們都是我們食品雜貨組合的一部分。

In Frozen, we had one noteworthy disruption as our fish business was on allocation, which led to out-of-stocks during the peak Lenten season. This was due to a fire on our fish frying line as reported in our second quarter 10-Q. While these discrete issues suppressed our volume in Q3, the root causes have been largely resolved, and we expect volumes to rebound sequentially from here.

在《冰雪奇緣》中，我們有一個值得注意的中斷，因為我們的魚類業務正在分配，這導致在四旬齋旺季期間缺貨。這是由於我們在第二季度 10-Q 中報告的炸魚生產線發生火災。雖然這些離散問題抑制了我們在第三季度的銷量，但根本原因已基本解決，我們預計銷量將從這裡開始連續反彈。

Importantly, when you take the noise out of the short-term view and compare our growth versus the stable baseline of 3 years ago, you see our performance has been strong on both the top and bottom lines. Dampening the results versus this time period normalizes for the volatility across demand, inflation and supply chain throughout the pandemic and demonstrates that Conagra is a top performer among our peer set.

重要的是，當你從短期觀點中剔除噪音並將我們的增長與 3 年前的穩定基線進行比較時，你會發現我們的業績在頂線和底線上都很強勁。與這段時間相比，抑制結果使整個大流行期間需求、通貨膨脹和供應鏈的波動正常化，並表明康尼格拉在我們的同行中表現最佳。

Slide 12 details our top line performance on a 3-year basis as measured over the prior 52 weeks and compared to our near-end peer group who are footnoted in alphabetical order at the bottom of the slide. Among this group, Conagra continued to rank second in dollar sales growth and first in unit sales performance just as we did in Q2.

幻燈片 12 詳細介紹了我們在過去 52 週內衡量的 3 年頂線業績，並與幻燈片底部按字母順序腳註的近端同行進行了比較。在這一組中，康尼格拉繼續在美元銷售額增長方面排名第二，在單位銷售業績方面排名第一，就像我們在第二季度所做的那樣。

This remains true when you look at the same chart isolating the third quarter. And post-Q3, the syndicated scanner data has shown our unit sales trends improving. In fact, in the 4-week period ending 3 25 are units ranked in the middle of our near-end peer group on a 2-year CAGR basis. Our continued top-tier pricing execution and volume performance is made possible by the strength of our brands and the superior relative value that our products provide to the consumer.

當您查看同一張單獨顯示第三季度的圖表時，情況仍然如此。在第三季度之後，聯合掃描儀數據顯示我們的單位銷售趨勢正在改善。事實上，在 3 25 結束的 4 週期間，按 2 年 CAGR 計算，單位在我們的近端同行組中排名中間。我們的品牌實力和我們的產品為消費者提供的卓越相對價值使我們能夠持續保持頂級定價執行和銷量表現。

Let's take a look at our top line performance during the third quarter by retail domain, starting with Frozen on Slide 14. We maintained our momentum, delivering strong retail sales growth on both a 1- and 3-year basis, improving 4% and 23%, respectively. This growth was driven by a number of our key categories, including breakfast sausages and single-serve meals. It's worth noting that this performance comes on top of very strong performance for our frozen domain in the year ago period when the Omicron outbreak influenced consumers' in-home eating behavior. For example, single-serve deals grew 12% last year, creating a 2-year stack of 18% in that category.

讓我們來看看我們第三季度零售領域的最高業績，從幻燈片 14 上的《冰雪奇緣》開始。我們保持了勢頭，在 1 年和 3 年的基礎上實現了強勁的零售銷售增長，分別提高了 4% 和 23% ％， 分別。這一增長是由我們的一些關鍵類別推動的，包括早餐香腸和單份餐點。值得注意的是，這一表現是在一年前我們冷凍領域非常強勁的表現之上的，當時 Omicron 爆發影響了消費者的家庭飲食行為。例如，去年單一服務交易增長了 12%，在該類別中創造了 18% 的 2 年堆棧。

Turning to Snacks on Slide 15. You can see a similar story. We drove a 7% increase in retail sales compared to the third quarter of fiscal '22 and a 39% increase over the third quarter of fiscal '20. The continued momentum in this domain is broad-based across a number of categories. Compared to last year, seeds was up over 22% and baking mixes and microwave popcorn both rose more than 10%. Meat snacks grew 6% year-over-year, building on top of the 22% growth in the year ago quarter, a period when meat snacks were coming off allocation and our customers were eager to fulfill demand for our leading products in this category.

轉到幻燈片 15 上的零食。您可以看到類似的故事。與 22 財年第三季度相比，我們的零售額增長了 7%，與 20 財年第三季度相比增長了 39%。該領域的持續發展勢頭廣泛，涵蓋多個類別。與去年相比，種子價格上漲了 22% 以上，烘焙混合料和微波爆米花的價格均上漲了 10% 以上。肉類零食同比增長 6%，高於去年同期 22% 的增長率，這一時期肉類零食正在停止分配，我們的客戶渴望滿足對我們在該類別中的領先產品的需求。

We also continued to drive growth in our highly relevant staples portfolio despite the discrete supply chain challenges in some of our canned meals and sides businesses that I noted earlier. Our staples portfolio increased retail sales 7% compared to the third quarter of last year and 20% compared to the same period 3 years ago. This growth was led by WIP toppings, which grew more than 18% on a year-over-year basis.

儘管我之前提到的我們的一些罐頭食品和配菜業務面臨離散的供應鏈挑戰，但我們還繼續推動我們高度相關的主食產品組合的增長。與去年第三季度相比，我們的必需品組合零售額增長了 7%，與 3 年前同期相比增長了 20%。這一增長是由 WIP 澆頭帶動的，同比增長超過 18%。

Turning to Slide 17. While we experienced transitory supply chain friction, we also continued to make progress on our supply chain initiatives during the third quarter, which benefited from continued headway on our ongoing productivity initiatives, which remain on track to achieve the targets we outlined at our most recent Investor Day, and more moderate increases in COGS as anticipated.

轉到幻燈片 17。雖然我們經歷了短暫的供應鏈摩擦，但我們在第三季度的供應鏈計劃也繼續取得進展，這得益於我們正在進行的生產力計劃的持續進展，這些計劃仍有望實現我們概述的目標在我們最近的投資者日，COGS 的增長如預期的那樣溫和。

These improvements to our supply chain led to improvements in the service we provide our customers. While we're making good progress in supply chain, it's not back to normal and industry-wide challenges persist. However, we're recovering as expected, and we see more room for improvement as we advance our productivity initiatives, and the macro environment continues to normalize.

這些對我們供應鏈的改進導致我們為客戶提供的服務得到改進。雖然我們在供應鏈方面取得了良好進展，但還沒有恢復正常，整個行業的挑戰依然存在。然而，我們正在按預期恢復，隨著我們推進生產力計劃，我們看到了更多的改進空間，宏觀環境繼續正常化。

Overall, we're confident we will deliver on our top line and margin guidance for the year, and we're raising our bottom line estimates. With that in mind, we are updating our guidance to reflect that we now expect organic net sales growth of 7% to 7.5%. We expect adjusted operating margin of 15.5% to 15.6%, and we're increasing our expectations for adjusted EPS growth to range from $2.70 to $2.75.

總體而言，我們有信心實現今年的收入和利潤率指引，並且我們正在提高我們的收入預期。考慮到這一點，我們正在更新我們的指引，以反映我們現在預計有機淨銷售額增長 7% 至 7.5%。我們預計調整後的營業利潤率為 15.5% 至 15.6%，我們將調整後的每股收益增長預期上調至 2.70 美元至 2.75 美元。

Before I hand the call over to Dave, I want to reiterate our confidence in the path ahead. We have successfully executed pricing actions in response to inflation, that inflation is moderating, and elasticities remain remarkably consistent and benign. We're moving past discrete supply chain disruptions and continue to make progress on our margin expansion initiatives such as productivity and value over volume, all within an environment that is normalizing.

在我將電話轉交給戴夫之前，我想重申我們對未來道路的信心。我們已經成功地執行了針對通貨膨脹的定價行動，通貨膨脹正在放緩，彈性仍然非常一致和良性。我們正在擺脫離散的供應鏈中斷，並繼續在我們的利潤擴張計劃上取得進展，例如生產力和價值超過數量，所有這些都是在一個正在正常化的環境中進行的。

And as we look at more recent scanner data, we are already seeing improvements in sales trends and we expect that momentum to accelerate through the end of the fiscal year. Overall, Conagra continues to benefit from strong brands, strong processes and strong people, which are all working together to drive sustainable growth and margin expansion.

當我們查看最近的掃描儀數據時，我們已經看到銷售趨勢有所改善，我們預計這種勢頭將在本財年末加速。總體而言，康尼格拉繼續受益於強大的品牌、強大的流程和強大的人才，它們共同努力推動可持續增長和利潤擴張。

With that, I'll pass the call over to Dave to cover the financials from the quarter in more detail.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給戴夫，更詳細地介紹本季度的財務狀況。

Thanks, Sean, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin by discussing a few highlights as shown on Slide 20. We delivered another quarter of strong results, reflecting the ongoing strength of our brands and successful execution of the Conagra Way playbook. In the quarter, organic net sales increased 6.1% due to inflation-justified pricing and continued muted elasticities, as Sean discussed.

謝謝，肖恩，大家早上好。我將首先討論幻燈片 20 中顯示的一些亮點。我們又取得了四分之一的強勁業績，反映了我們品牌的持續實力和 Conagra Way 劇本的成功執行。正如肖恩所討論的那樣，由於通貨膨脹合理的定價和持續低迷的彈性，本季度有機淨銷售額增長了 6.1%。

Adjusted gross margin increased 409 basis points to 28.1%, and adjusted gross profit dollar growth was up 23.9% for Q3 and 17.8% year-to-date benefiting from higher organic net sales and productivity initiatives, reflecting our focus on margin recovery. This increase in adjusted gross profit contributed to strong adjusted EBITDA growth of 21.1% in the quarter.

調整後的毛利率增長 409 個基點至 28.1%，第三季度調整後的美元美元增長率增長 23.9%，年初至今增長 17.8%，這得益於更高的有機淨銷售額和生產力舉措，反映出我們對利潤率恢復的關注。調整後毛利的增長導致本季度調整後 EBITDA 強勁增長 21.1%。

Let me break down the drivers of our 6.1% organic net sales growth here on Slide 21. We delivered 15.1% improvement in price/mix from our inflation-justified pricing actions. This price improvement was partially offset by a 9% decrease in volume. If you simply apply Conagra's current and historically favorable 0.54 elasticity factor to the 15.1% price/mix, you will see that elasticity explains approximately 8 of the 9 percentage points of the volume decline. The remaining 1 percentage point volume decline is mostly from the supply chain disruptions we've discussed. And given our elasticities have been running at these favorable levels for some time now, this level of volume decline has been planned in our fiscal '23 sales and gross margin projections.

讓我在幻燈片 21 上分解我們 6.1% 的有機淨銷售額增長的驅動因素。我們通過通脹合理的定價行動實現了 15.1% 的價格/組合改善。這一價格上漲部分被銷量下降 9% 所抵消。如果您簡單地將 Conagra 當前和歷史上有利的 0.54 彈性因子應用於 15.1% 的價格/組合，您會發現彈性解釋了銷量下降的 9 個百分點中的大約 8 個。剩下的 1 個百分點的銷量下降主要來自我們討論過的供應鏈中斷。鑑於我們的彈性在這些有利水平上運行了一段時間，我們的 23 財年銷售額和毛利率預測中已經計劃了這種數量下降水平。

Slide 22 shows the top line performance for each segment in Q3. We are pleased with the continued net sales growth across all four reporting segments. Our domestic retail portfolio continues to perform well. With net sales in our Grocery & Snacks and Refrigerated & Frozen segments, up a combined 4.7%. Our International segment saw solid growth in the quarter with organic net sales up 9.5%. International reported net sales were up 7.7%, reflecting the unfavorable impact of foreign exchange. Finally, we continued to see strong recovery in our Foodservice segment, which grew 17.3% in the quarter.

幻燈片 22 顯示了第三季度每個細分市場的頂線表現。我們對所有四個報告部門的持續淨銷售額增長感到滿意。我們的國內零售組合繼續表現良好。我們的雜貨和零食以及冷藏和冷凍細分市場的淨銷售額合計增長 4.7%。我們的國際業務在本季度實現了穩健增長，有機淨銷售額增長了 9.5%。國際報告的淨銷售額增長了 7.7%，反映了外彙的不利影響。最後，我們繼續看到我們的餐飲服務部門強勁復甦，本季度增長了 17.3%。

I'd now like to discuss our Q3 adjusted margin bridge found on Slide 23. As Sean discussed, we are pleased to have delivered a second consecutive quarter of strong margin recovery. We drove a 10.9% margin benefit from improved price/mix during the quarter and realized a 1.8% benefit from continued progress on our supply chain productivity initiatives. These pricing and productivity benefits were partially offset by continued inflationary pressure with 8% gross market inflation impacting our operating margins by 5.9% and a negative impact of 2.8% from market-based sourcing. Finally, higher investment in A&P and adjusted SG&A during the quarter reduced margins by 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.

我現在想討論我們在幻燈片 23 上發現的第三季度調整後的保證金橋樑。正如肖恩所討論的那樣，我們很高興連續第二個季度實現強勁的利潤率恢復。本季度，我們通過改善價格/組合實現了 10.9% 的利潤率收益，並通過我們供應鏈生產力計劃的持續進展實現了 1.8% 的收益。這些定價和生產力優勢被持續的通貨膨脹壓力部分抵消，8% 的總市場通貨膨脹對我們的營業利潤率產生了 5.9% 的影響，而基於市場的採購產生了 2.8% 的負面影響。最後，本季度對 A&P 和調整後的 SG&A 的更高投資分別使利潤率降低了 0.4% 和 0.5%。

Slide 24 breaks down our adjusted operating profit and margin by segment. While some supply chain challenges continued during the quarter, execution of pricing and improvements in our productivity and service levels allowed us to deliver adjusted operating margin expansion in each segment.

幻燈片 24 按細分細分了我們調整後的營業利潤和利潤率。雖然本季度繼續存在一些供應鏈挑戰，但定價的執行以及我們生產力和服務水平的提高使我們能夠在每個部門實現調整後的營業利潤率增長。

Total adjusted operating profit increased 30.8% to $522 million during the quarter despite an increase in adjusted corporate expense primarily due to increased incentive compensation. It is worth noting that we delivered 321 basis points of adjusted operating margin improvement in Q3 versus a year ago, while incurring incremental transitory costs in our Grocery & Snacks segment due to the supply chain challenges we've discussed.

本季度調整後營業利潤總額增長 30.8% 至 5.22 億美元，儘管調整後的公司費用有所增加，這主要是由於激勵薪酬的增加。值得注意的是，與一年前相比，我們在第三季度實現了 321 個基點的調整後營業利潤率提高，同時由於我們討論過的供應鏈挑戰，我們的雜貨和零食部門產生了增量的暫時性成本。

Turning to Slide 25. Our Q3 adjusted EPS increased by 31% or $0.18 per share compared to a year ago primarily driven by higher sales and gross profit as well as from a small benefit in taxes. Our Ardent Mills joint venture performance continued to be strong and has wrapped strong results from a year ago. These positives were partially offset by higher adjusted A&P and SG&A as well as lower pension and postretirement income and higher interest expense versus a year ago.

轉到幻燈片 25。與一年前相比，我們第三季度調整後的每股收益增加了 31% 或每股 0.18 美元，這主要是由於銷售額和毛利的增加以及稅收的小幅增長。我們的 Ardent Mills 合資企業表現繼續強勁，並取得了一年前的強勁業績。這些積極因素部分被調整後的 A&P 和 SG&A 以及較低的養老金和退休後收入以及與一年前相比較高的利息支出所抵消。

You can see on Slide 26, how we are continuing to strengthen our balance sheet metrics. At the end of the third quarter, our net leverage ratio was 3.65x, down from 4.2x at the prior year period. Our net cash flow from operating activities reflects investment to rebuild our inventory levels. Improvement in our inventories has enabled us to improve service levels above 90%, and we are well positioned going forward in most categories to support sustained demand.

您可以在幻燈片 26 上看到我們如何繼續加強我們的資產負債表指標。第三季度末，我們的淨槓桿率為 3.65 倍，低於去年同期的 4.2 倍。我們來自經營活動的淨現金流反映了重建庫存水平的投資。庫存的改善使我們能夠將服務水平提高 90% 以上，並且我們在大多數類別中都處於有利地位，可以支持持續的需求。

Year-to-date CapEx was $267 million at the end of the quarter, down from $364 million in the prior year period, while year-to-date free cash flow increased to $436 million. We remain committed to returning capital to shareholders as evidenced by the year-to-date increase in our dividend payments and share repurchases.

本季度末年初至今的資本支出為 2.67 億美元，低於去年同期的 3.64 億美元，而年初至今的自由現金流增至 4.36 億美元。我們仍然致力於向股東返還資本，年初至今股息支付和股票回購的增加就是明證。

For the balance of fiscal '23, we will continue to evaluate the highest and best use of capital to strengthen our balance sheet and optimize shareholder value. As Sean mentioned, in response to our continued business momentum and ongoing operating dynamics, we are raising our fiscal '23 EPS guidance and narrowing our ranges for organic net sales growth and adjusted operating margin with only one quarter remaining in fiscal '23.

對於 23 財年的餘額，我們將繼續評估資本的最高和最佳用途，以加強我們的資產負債表並優化股東價值。正如肖恩所提到的，為了響應我們持續的業務勢頭和持續的運營動態，我們正在提高我們的 23 財年每股收益指導，並縮小我們的有機淨銷售額增長范圍和調整後的營業利潤率，在 23 財年只剩下四分之一。

Turning to Slide 28. I'd like to briefly discuss the considerations and assumptions behind our guidance. We continue to expect total gross inflation of approximately 10% for fiscal '23 and expect gross inflation to continue for the full calendar year 2023. We will update you at our Q4 earnings call in July with our inflation expectations for full year fiscal '24.

轉到幻燈片 28。我想簡要討論一下我們指南背後的考慮和假設。我們繼續預計 23 財年的總通貨膨脹率約為 10%，並預計 2023 年全年通貨膨脹率將持續。我們將在 7 月份的第四季度財報電話會議上向您更新我們對 24 財年全年通貨膨脹的預期。

We expect our net leverage ratio at year-end to remain approximately 3.65x and anticipate CapEx spend of approximately $370 million for fiscal '23. This number is below our original expectations due to the timing of certain projects. We remain committed to making capital investments to support our growth and productivity priorities with a focus on capacity expansion and automation.

我們預計年底的淨槓桿率將保持在 3.65 倍左右，並預計 23 財年的資本支出約為 3.7 億美元。由於某些項目的時間安排，這個數字低於我們最初的預期。我們仍然致力於進行資本投資，以支持我們的增長和生產力優先事項，重點是產能擴張和自動化。

Lastly, we expect interest expense to be approximately $410 million and pension and postretirement income to be approximately $25 million for the year, driven by the higher interest rate environment. Our full year tax rate estimate remains approximately 24%.

最後，我們預計在較高利率環境的推動下，今年的利息支出約為 4.1 億美元，養老金和退休後收入約為 2500 萬美元。我們的全年稅率估計仍約為 24%。

To sum things up, we are proud that we delivered another strong quarter in fiscal '23 especially considering a supply chain environment that continued to present some challenges. Our service levels have improved and our margins continue to recover to pre-COVID levels, and we remain committed to executing on our strategic priorities to generate value for our shareholders.

總而言之，我們很自豪我們在 23 財年交付了另一個強勁的季度，特別是考慮到供應鏈環境繼續帶來一些挑戰。我們的服務水平有所提高，我們的利潤率繼續恢復到 COVID 之前的水平，我們仍然致力於執行我們的戰略重點，為我們的股東創造價值。

That concludes our prepared remarks for today's call. Thank you for listening. I'll now pass it back to the operator to open the line for questions.

我們為今天的電話會議準備的發言到此結束。謝謝你的聆聽。我現在將它傳回給接線員以打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Today's first question comes from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Andrew Lazar。

Sean, maybe to start off with something a little bit broader. I think we're all aware of what the more sort of negative narrative on the overall food group is at this stage, which is as food companies lap the pricing and organic sales will slow, companies will raise promotions to drive volume, and that will somehow compete away the margin recovery. And I guess I was hoping that in light of kind of Agri's results today and sort of the implicit fourth quarter EPS that looks to be a bit below the current street view. I guess I'm curious, how would you characterize your results sort of in the context of the group-wide narrative that I sort of just laid out?

肖恩，也許可以從更廣泛的內容開始。我想我們都知道現階段對整個食品集團的更多負面敘述是什麼，即隨著食品公司定價和有機銷售放緩，公司將提高促銷以推動銷量，這將以某種方式競爭利潤率恢復。而且我想我希望根據今天 Agri 的某種結果以及隱含的第四季度 EPS 看起來有點低於當前的街景。我想我很好奇，在我剛剛列出的整個集團範圍內的敘述背景下，您如何描述您的結果？

As I've said on these calls many times before, navigating these inflation cycles is pretty mechanical. You get hit with inflation, you take price, you don't reflect it right away, and therefore, you experience a lag, which compresses margins, but then pricing catches up and margins recover as you saw us start to do really materially in Q2. Then when you wrap these actions, dollar growth comes down and unit performance improves, both because elasticities wane and because you wrap the unit impact.

正如我之前多次在這些電話會議上所說的那樣，駕馭這些通貨膨脹週期是非常機械的。你受到通貨膨脹的打擊，你接受了價格，但你沒有立即反映出來，因此，你會遇到滯後，這會壓縮利潤率，但隨後定價會趕上來，利潤率會恢復，正如你看到我們在第二季度開始真正做的那樣.然後，當你包裝這些行動時，美元增長會下降，單位績效會提高，這既是因為彈性減弱，也是因為你包裝了單位影響。

So that stuff is all mechanical, and it's all predictable. I think what you're getting at is the big question then becomes what comes next. And the goal is obviously sustained growth. And the debate that you're poking at here is, well, what will the tactic be? And to me, that answer is crystal clear, especially for us, simply by looking at how we have pursued growth since I have been with Conagra.

所以這些東西都是機械的，而且都是可以預測的。我認為你得到的是一個大問題，然後變成接下來會發生什麼。目標顯然是持續增長。你在這裡討論的爭論是，好吧，策略是什麼？對我來說，這個答案非常明確，尤其是對我們而言，只要看看自從我加入康尼格拉以來我們是如何追求增長的。

The answer in a word is innovation. Just look at our frozen performance over the past 8 years, it was 100% about innovation, premiumization, but ironically, also value over volume philosophy around actually eliminating low-quality promotion. So the question then becomes, why would Conagra suddenly or anybody else for that matter, suddenly believe that the opposite approach is now a smart growth strategy? That doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

一句話就是創新。看看我們過去 8 年的凍結表現，它 100% 是關於創新、優質化，但具有諷刺意味的是，還圍繞實際消除低質量促銷的價值超過數量理念。那麼問題就變成了，為什麼康尼格拉或其他任何人會突然相信相反的方法現在是明智的增長戰略？這對我來說沒有多大意義。

As far as Q4 goes, first, listen, as I said in my opening remarks, I feel very good about where we sit and our plan is working. Our margin recovery is in place, our elasticities remain benign and consistent, supply chain is improving, innovation is hitting the market, top line trends are improving. So in terms of the implied Q4 guide, we think it's prudent. Supply chain is improving but it's not all the way back, and our position all year has been to plan conservatively in this regard.

就第 4 季度而言，首先，正如我在開場白中所說，我對我們所處的位置和我們的計劃正在發揮作用感到非常滿意。我們的利潤率恢復到位，我們的彈性保持良好和一致，供應鏈正在改善，創新正在衝擊市場，頂線趨勢正在改善。因此，就隱含的 Q4 指南而言，我們認為這是謹慎的。供應鏈正在改善，但並沒有完全恢復，我們全年的立場都是在這方面進行保守計劃。

And as far as unit volume goes, I think we gave you a lot of color on that already. But for those that are more inclined to focus on short-term trends, our 2-year unit CAGR in the most recent 4-week period scanner data, which is ending 3 25 was right smack in the middle of our peer set and at levels that are entirely predictable as our muted elasticities kind of show you.

就單位體積而言，我認為我們已經給了你很多顏色。但對於那些更傾向於關注短期趨勢的人來說，我們在最近 4 週期間的掃描儀數據中的 2 年單位複合年增長率（結束時為 3 25）恰好處於我們同行的中間水平正如我們柔和的彈性向您展示的那樣，這是完全可以預測的。

So to be above that, either elasticities would have to be nonexistent or you would have to be shipping ahead of consumption. And the former is unrealistic, and the latter is not part of our playbook.

因此，要高於這一點，要么必須不存在彈性，要么必須先於消費發貨。前者是不現實的，後者不在我們的劇本中。

Right. Great. And then just I didn't hear -- just a quick one. I didn't hear any mention of the canned meat recall as impacting the quarter. And I'm pretty sure there was supposed to be some impact but maybe I got that wrong. And then I'll pass it on.

正確的。偉大的。然後只是我沒聽到 - 只是一個快速的。我沒有聽到任何人提到罐頭肉召回會影響本季度。而且我很確定應該會有一些影響，但也許我錯了。然後我會把它傳下去。

Yes, Andrew. As we said in CAGNY, we expected a 50 basis point impact on Q3, and that's exactly what it did. It impacted us 50 basis points on sales, lost sales. We also had additional impact of around $8 million in kind of fees and just cost to bring the product back. That actually hits net sales and gross margin. So it's really both of those pieces. That did hit in Q3.

是的，安德魯。正如我們在 CAGNY 中所說，我們預計第三季度將受到 50 個基點的影響，而這正是它所做的。它影響了我們 50 個基點的銷售，銷售損失。我們還產生了大約 800 萬美元的額外費用，以及將產品帶回的成本。這實際上影響了淨銷售額和毛利率。所以它真的是這兩件作品。這確實在第三季度受到打擊。

Just to finish that point, I did say that, that would fully recover in Q4. One thing that has changed is we're really ramping up the replenishment on the shelf. So we're not going to see that full replenishment of the 50 basis points we lost in Q3 come back in Q4. That's going to drift into the beginning of fiscal '24.

為了完成這一點，我確實說過，這將在第四季度完全恢復。發生變化的一件事是我們真的在增加貨架上的補貨。因此，我們不會看到我們在第三季度損失的 50 個基點在第四季度得到全面補充。這將進入 24 財年的開始。

And our next question comes from Ken Goldman at JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ken Goldman。

I just wanted to ask a little bit about the guidance for the top line, just trimmed at the top end very slightly, not a huge deal, but just trying to get a little bit deeper into the reasons behind that. Is it mainly just the manufacturing issues that you had? Or are there other factors that we should think about as we look at that?

我只是想問一點關於頂線的指導，只是在頂端稍微修剪一下，沒什麼大不了的，但只是想更深入地了解其背後的原因。主要是您遇到的製造問題嗎？還是在我們考慮這個問題時還有其他因素需要考慮？

Ken, I'll make a quick comment, and I'll turn it over to Dave. The manufacturing friction that we've run into, this is part of the reason why we've had a conservative outlook all year long is these things keep popping up. And for us, it happens to be fully isolated around cans. And whether it's Vienna sausage or other things, it's a quality issue that we've had to deal with, getting cans where we need it to be a frankly, you've seen a those kind of issues pop up across the industry, in large part, tied to labor where you're dealing with a lot of inexperienced labor in companies and their suppliers that lead to these quality issues that sometimes you find before you produce the product, sometimes you find them after you produce the product.

肯，我會快速發表評論，然後轉交給戴夫。我們遇到的製造摩擦，這是我們一整年都持保守觀點的部分原因，因為這些事情不斷出現。而對我們來說，它恰好完全隔離在罐頭周圍。無論是維也納香腸還是其他東西，這是一個我們必須處理的質量問題，在我們需要的地方得到罐頭，坦率地說，你已經看到整個行業都出現了這類問題，大體上部分，與勞動力有關，在這種情況下，您在公司及其供應商中處理大量缺乏經驗的勞動力，這些勞動力會導致這些質量問題，有時您會在生產產品之前發現這些問題，有時您會在生產產品之後發現它們。

So that impacted Q3 and it will drift a little bit into Q4. The good news is we've gotten to the root cause of those things, and we've got them contained. So now we just got to get the remnant out of our system, so to speak. But again, that means the setup going forward as we do that, I think, is a positive and should become a tailwind. Dave, do you want to add anything?

所以這影響了第三季度，它會稍微漂移到第四季度。好消息是我們已經找到了這些事情的根本原因，並且我們已經控制住了它們。所以現在我們只需要把殘餘物從我們的系統中取出，可以這麼說。但同樣，我認為這意味著我們這樣做的設置是積極的，應該成為順風。戴夫，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yes. I mean, Sean hit it. Just to give you a little bit more specifics, as I just mentioned on the previous question, we do not expect now to see the bounce back from the Armour recall in Q4, that is going to drift into next year. That was 50 basis points that impacted Q3. And then also in the category, Sean talked about, chilies, beans and then the impact of the frozen fish. These dynamics, we're working through that. It's improving, but we're still on allocation in some of those specific categories and actually SKUs. And so that is impacting Q4 as well on the top line.

是的。我的意思是，肖恩擊中了它。正如我剛才在上一個問題中提到的，我們現在不希望看到第四季度裝甲召回事件的反彈，這將持續到明年。這是影響第三季度的 50 個基點。然後在類別中，肖恩談到了辣椒、豆類，然後是冷凍魚的影響。這些動態，我們正在努力解決。它正在改進，但我們仍在分配某些特定類別，實際上是 SKU。因此，這也影響了第四季度的收入。

If you just think about it this way, if you look at the previous guidance, which was 7% to 8% for the full year, that implies a midpoint for Q4 of about 5.8% with the revised guidance for the year, that implies a midpoint of about 4.8%. So that's about a 100 basis points of a decline in the Armour and then these other allocation issues with the brands I just mentioned are pretty much why.

如果你只是這樣想，如果你看一下之前的指導，全年是 7% 到 8%，這意味著第四季度的中點約為 5.8%，加上今年修訂後的指導，這意味著中點約為 4.8%。所以這大約是 Armor 下降 100 個基點，然後我剛才提到的品牌的這些其他分配問題幾乎就是原因。

Okay. And then for my follow-up, you trimmed your CapEx outlook. You're hardly the only company to be doing that these days. I understand -- I think I understand the reasons why. I'm just curious, Dave, you mentioned it's more of a timing issue. I'm curious how delayed are those projects in general? And is it fair to say that nothing really throws your supply chain optimization plan off course? Or is there anything in there that's delayed as well?

好的。然後對於我的後續行動，你削減了你的資本支出前景。這些天你幾乎不是唯一一家這樣做的公司。我明白——我想我明白其中的原因。我只是好奇，戴夫，你提到這更多是時間問題。我很好奇這些項目一般有多延遲？可以公平地說，沒有什麼能讓您的供應鏈優化計劃偏離正軌嗎？還是那裡也有延遲的東西？

No, Ken. Just we're still on track with the commitments we made at our Investor Day on the $1 billion over 3 years. A lot of it is just normal timing. In this environment, we're still working through where things just take longer. If you're ordering certain materials and things that you need to execute these CapEx projects, they're just taking a little bit more time. So -- but it's not at all changing kind of the opportunities we see and the projects that we're going to target.

不，肯。只是我們仍然在履行我們在投資者日做出的 3 年 10 億美元的承諾。很多只是正常的時間。在這種環境下，我們仍在努力解決需要更長時間的問題。如果您要訂購執行這些資本支出項目所需的某些材料和物品，它們只會花費更多時間。所以 - 但它根本不會改變我們看到的機會類型和我們將要瞄準的項目。

And our next question today comes from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.

我們今天的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Pamela Kaufman。

So just a question on the Q4 guidance. So at the midpoint, your updated full year guidance for operating margins, implies Q4 operating margins decline year-over-year, but you've seen about 180 basis points of operating margin expansion year-to-date. So what's driving that more cautious Q4 margin outlook?

所以只是關於第四季度指南的問題。因此，在中點，您更新的全年營業利潤率指導意味著第四季度營業利潤率同比下降，但您已經看到今年迄今營業利潤率增長了約 180 個基點。那麼，是什麼促使第四季度利潤率前景更加謹慎？

Yes, Pam. Let me get -- good question. So Sean had mentioned that our approach to guidance this entire fiscal year has been about being prudent. And it's because of the volatile environment we're in with the supply chain challenges and then the historic inflation in pricing. And we're continuing that approach for Q4.

是的，帕姆。讓我明白——問得好。所以肖恩提到我們指導整個財政年度的方法是謹慎的。這是因為我們所處的環境不穩定，供應鏈面臨挑戰，然後是定價的歷史性通脹。我們將在第四季度繼續採用這種方法。

So we still expect inflection in our gross margins, but we are building in what I'll call a healthy level of contingency for supply chain friction costs in our cost of goods sold. Also just a more specific item regarding SG&A, we will be up in Q4 versus prior year and up versus Q3 absolute dollar levels. SG&A will be more in line with what we saw in Q2 in terms of SG&A dollars. So we expect to finish the year near that 9% in net sales level, and that's just timing.

因此，我們仍然預計我們的毛利率會出現變化，但我們正在為我們的商品銷售成本中的供應鏈摩擦成本建立一個健康的應急水平。同樣只是關於 SG&A 的一個更具體的項目，我們將在第四季度與上一年相比上升，與第三季度的絕對美元水平相比上升。 SG&A 將更符合我們在第二季度看到的 SG&A 美元。因此，我們預計今年年底的淨銷售額將接近 9%，這只是時機。

And then for EPS, we always forecast sort of a more moderate estimate for Ardent Mills. So that would be down versus what we delivered for Q3. So they're really the key drivers. I think it's just a we're taking a prudent approach to our guidance.

然後對於每股收益，我們總是預測對 Ardent Mills 的估計更為溫和。因此，這將低於我們為第三季度交付的產品。所以他們真的是關鍵的驅動力。我認為這只是我們對我們的指導採取謹慎的方法。

Got it. And then just on gross margins, you've had very strong gross margin expansion year-to-date. How should we think about gross margins in Q4 and then into next year? Can gross margins continue to move above this 28% level? And how are you thinking about the contribution from your productivity investments?

知道了。然後就毛利率而言，今年迄今為止的毛利率增長非常強勁。我們應該如何考慮第四季度和明年的毛利率？毛利率能否繼續超過這個 28% 的水平？您如何看待生產力投資的貢獻？

Yes, Pam, it's Sean. The first thing I'd say is we were deliberate in stating off the fact that our top priority this year was on gross margin recovery. And it kind of comes back to Andrew's point, why is that so important? Because gross margins fund our innovation program and our innovation program is how we drive high-quality sustained growth that can be margin accretive over time. This all hangs together. It's a simple concept.

是的，帕姆，是肖恩。我要說的第一件事是，我們故意說明我們今年的首要任務是恢復毛利率這一事實。這又回到了安德魯的觀點，為什麼它如此重要？因為毛利率為我們的創新計劃提供資金，而我們的創新計劃是我們推動高質量持續增長的方式，隨著時間的推移，這種增長可以增加利潤。這一切都掛在一起。這是一個簡單的概念。

So if you think about what we try to do around here as a company and our playbook, it's all about perpetually improving our growth rates and improving our margins. And we do that in a variety of ways from the mix of our portfolio to our value over volume strategy to our relentless approach to innovation. That's what it's all about. So we're not giving long-term gross margin guidance from here, but I would just say what we've always said, which is philosophically, our game plan is to drive a northward trajectory on sales and gross margins into the future.

因此，如果你想想我們作為一家公司和我們的劇本在這裡嘗試做什麼，那就是不斷提高我們的增長率和提高我們的利潤率。我們以多種方式做到這一點，從我們的投資組合組合到我們的價值超過數量戰略，再到我們不懈的創新方法。這就是它的一切。所以我們不會在這裡給出長期毛利率指導，但我只想說我們一直在說的話，從哲學上講，我們的遊戲計劃是推動未來銷售和毛利率向北發展。

And our next question today comes from David Palmer of Evercore ISI.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Palmer。

I wanted to ask you about your multiyear sales trends or how you're maybe thinking about that this quarter, the sales trends were stable on a 4-year basis. And your guidance implies roughly stable for your organic sales trends with that 5% or so organic growth in fiscal 4Q? I wonder if you see reasons for reacceleration in the multiyear trend into the first half of this upcoming year? You mentioned the supply chain maybe a point or so. And the reason I'm asking this is because stable 4-year trends will get you to maybe flat to up 2% organic revenue by the first quarter, which I'm sure is not great news. So I'm wondering about reasons for reacceleration beyond maybe that supply chain hiccup you mentioned?

我想問一下你們多年的銷售趨勢，或者你們是如何看待這個季度的，銷售趨勢在 4 年的基礎上是穩定的。你的指導意見暗示你的有機銷售趨勢大致穩定，第四財季有機增長 5% 左右？我想知道你是否看到了在即將到來的今年上半年重新加速多年趨勢的原因？你提到供應鏈可能是一個問題。我問這個問題的原因是，穩定的 4 年趨勢將使您在第一季度有機收入可能持平或增長 2%，我敢肯定這不是好消息。所以我想知道除了你提到的供應鏈問題之外，重新加速的原因是什麼？

Well, David, we're not obviously going to get into next year's guidance today. But I'll come back to the mechanical point that I made at the beginning of the Q&A section here, we're going to go into this phase here where we start getting into Q1 and then Q2 and then Q3 next year where you really start to wrap on the pricing, and you're going to see dollars come down, but you'll see the unit declines that were tied to multiple waves of pricing tied to the elasticity start to rebound. So that's going to be a shift.

好吧，大衛，我們今天顯然不會進入明年的指導。但我會回到我在問答部分開始時提出的機械觀點，我們將在這裡進入這個階段，我們開始進入第一季度，然後是第二季度，然後是明年的第三季度，你真正開始的地方總結定價，你會看到美元下跌，但你會看到與彈性相關的多波定價浪潮相關的單位下降開始反彈。所以這將是一個轉變。

That's going to be in everybody's next fiscal year, and it's going to be different for every company because every company started pricing -- so you're going to see that shift. And I think everybody's got to start to model for that and prepare for that because then when you get through that, you're going to be back to pretty much everybody's long-term algorithm. And for us is sales, that's low single digits. And so that's what we expect. And then we pursue that a variety of ways, the bulk of which is through innovation. Dave, anything else you'd add to that?

這將在每個人的下一個財政年度發生，而且每家公司都會有所不同，因為每家公司都開始定價——所以你會看到這種轉變。而且我認為每個人都必須開始為此建模並為此做好準備，因為當你完成它時，你將回到幾乎每個人的長期算法。對我們來說是銷售額，這是低個位數。這就是我們所期望的。然後我們追求各種方式，其中大部分是通過創新。戴夫，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. But David, what you're poking at is true, right? So if you think about Armour, for example, where we had a recall, we pulled everything and now we're replenishing and some of that will drift into the beginning of fiscal '24. So when you have that, that's obviously going to be a tailwind, right, for the quarter. But that's what's made these last couple of years, so difficult because every quarter, there's different dynamics in terms of when different companies are on allocation and then when they get off allocation and what does that do to shipments versus consumption. And so it's hard to put a really big point on it, plus we're not going to get into detail on guidance until July. But conceptually, that's correct. When you're on allocation or you're out of stock and then you replenish, you are going to see a bounce back from that.

是的。但是大衛，你說的是真的，對吧？因此，如果你考慮一下裝甲，例如，我們召回的地方，我們撤回了所有東西，現在我們正在補充，其中一些將漂移到 24 財年的開始。因此，當你擁有它時，這顯然會成為本季度的順風，對吧。但這就是過去幾年變得如此困難的原因，因為每個季度，在不同公司何時進行分配以及何時取消分配以及這對出貨量和消費量有何影響方面，都有不同的動態。因此，很難真正強調這一點，而且我們要到 7 月才會詳細介紹指導意見。但從概念上講，這是正確的。當您進行分配或缺貨然後補貨時，您會看到反彈。

I wanted to ask maybe one more Gaele, see if you could comment a bit more on the inflation. You said you're expecting inflation for all of calendar '23. If that were up low single digits then you would be talking about a flat second half of calendar '23, meaning your first half of fiscal '24. So I'm wondering what type of inflation are you thinking about for -- as you enter into fiscal '24?

我想再問一個 Gaele，看看你是否可以對通貨膨脹發表更多評論。你說你預計整個 23 年日曆都會出現通貨膨脹。如果這是低個位數，那麼你將談論日曆'23 的下半年持平，這意味著你的財政'24 的上半年。所以我想知道當你進入 24 財年時，你在考慮什麼類型的通貨膨脹？

Yes, David, we're going to give more detailed guidance on fiscal year '24 inflation on our July call. I think to do it now, I think, is a bit premature. What I can tell you is, as you've seen every quarter, our market inflation has been decelerating, okay? So the rate of inflation has come down, and we expect that to continue into Q4. We guided to approximately 10%, which implies about a 5.5% market inflation rate in Q4.

是的，大衛，我們將在 7 月的電話會議上就 24 財年的通貨膨脹提供更詳細的指導。我認為現在就這樣做，我認為，有點為時過早。我可以告訴你的是，正如你每個季度都看到的那樣，我們的市場通脹一直在減速，好嗎？所以通貨膨脹率已經下降，我們預計這種情況將持續到第四季度。我們指引到大約 10%，這意味著第四季度的市場通脹率約為 5.5%。

In terms of the 8% that we saw in Q3, it's still roughly about 10% is materials, which is 2/3 of our cost, right, ingredients and packaging. So we are still seeing market inflation at a high level there, although it is coming down, as I mentioned. And then when you get into the manufacturing side with labor, that's more kind of higher -- mid- to higher single digits there. And then the transportation and warehousing has actually been kind of lower single digits. So that has been coming down stronger.

就我們在第三季度看到的 8% 而言，材料仍然大約佔 10%，這是我們成本的 2/3，對，配料和包裝。所以我們仍然看到那裡的市場通脹處於高水平，儘管它正在下降，正如我提到的那樣。然後當你進入製造業的勞動力方面時，那裡的個位數更高——中到更高。然後運輸和倉儲實際上是較低的個位數。所以這一直在下降。

So that's where we are now, but we're not going to give all that detail until we do it in the context of our full guidance for fiscal '24. I think that's the way we want to do it.

所以這就是我們現在所處的位置，但我們不會提供所有細節，直到我們在我們對 24 財年的完整指導的背景下這樣做。我認為這就是我們想要的方式。

And our next question today comes from Nik Modi with RBC Capital Markets.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Nik Modi。

Just question, Sean, on how you're thinking about the rolling off of the SNAP benefits and the impact obviously it has on just the overall packaged food space. Just curious if you have any thoughts on states that rolled off last year and if you have any observations there? And then just tied to that, given how dynamic the promotional environment is and how savvy Conagra has been with digital, I'm just curious like how you think about measuring the ROI of some of that spend? Do you expect that kind of digital promotion side of the business to really start ramping in the back half of the year?

肖恩，請問您是如何考慮 SNAP 福利的取消以及它對整個包裝食品空間的明顯影響。只是想知道您是否對去年推出的狀態有任何想法，以及您是否有任何觀察結果？然後與此相關，考慮到促銷環境的動態變化以及 Conagra 在數字方面的精明程度，我很好奇你如何考慮衡量部分支出的投資回報率？您是否預計這種業務的數字推廣方面會在今年下半年真正開始增長？

Sure, Nik. Let's talk SNAP first. So out of the 50 states, we've got 18 rolled off of these -- they've sunset these emergency allotments previously. And then you got 32 that just rolled off recently. So what do we know so far? What we know is that what we saw in terms of impact to our portfolio from the 18 was no material impact. And we've been tracking that for some time. I've mentioned this on calls before, and we just not have not seen any material impact there. And I will give you, as I did last quarter, one perspective on why I think that's the case for our portfolio is we already do have really great value offerings within the Conagra portfolio. So if you've got more limited SNAP allotments it would seem logical to me that you would use them on the things that are inherently harder to afford. And our products are inherently easier to afford and that may explain why we've seen such modest impact.

當然，尼克。讓我們先談談 SNAP。因此，在 50 個州中，我們已經取消了其中的 18 個——他們之前已經取消了這些緊急撥款。然後你得到了最近剛剛推出的 32。那麼到目前為止我們知道什麼？我們所知道的是，就 18 年對我們投資組合的影響而言，我們所看到的並沒有產生實質性影響。我們已經跟踪了一段時間。我之前在電話中提到過這一點，我們只是沒有看到那裡有任何實質性影響。就像我上個季度所做的那樣，我會給你一個觀點，說明為什麼我認為我們的投資組合就是這種情況，因為我們已經在 Conagra 投資組合中提供了非常有價值的產品。因此，如果您有更多有限的 SNAP 配額，在我看來，您將它們用於本質上更難以負擔的事情上似乎是合乎邏輯的。而且我們的產品本質上更容易買得起，這可以解釋為什麼我們看到瞭如此溫和的影響。

But you've got 32 states that have just recently come off. It's just -- it's brand-new data. We're going to -- we monitor this over an 8-, 10-week period, so we can see if there's any movement there, and we will do just that. But based on what we've seen in the 18 thus far, I just don't have a good rationale for saying that, that would be any different of a result.

但是你有 32 個州最近才取消。它只是——它是全新的數據。我們將 - 我們將在 8 週、10 週的時間內對此進行監控，以便我們可以查看那裡是否有任何動向，我們將這樣做。但根據我們迄今為止在 18 場比賽中看到的情況，我只是沒有充分的理由這麼說，結果會有所不同。

With respect to digital, I would say you used the word promotion. I think what we do is digital marketing. I mean we do literally do some digital promotion with our customers, where they shop online, things like that. And we invest in search to make sure people find our products. But A lot of what we do to drive buzz on our brands is what I talked about at CAGNY, which is really finding real people who use our brands to tell their story of how our brands fit in their life in their own words very authentically. We call those people irrefutable advocates. They live on TikTok, in Insta, things like that, and they -- we build relationships with them, and they tell our story. And -- it's incredibly efficient, which is why you see our A&P line look lighter than you see in companies that use traditional tools because it's far more efficient than traditional in-line media, which is not only expensive, but it's heavily ineffective.

關於數字，我會說你使用了促銷這個詞。我認為我們所做的是數字營銷。我的意思是我們確實對我們的客戶進行了一些數字促銷，他們在網上購物，諸如此類。我們投資搜索以確保人們找到我們的產品。但是，我在 CAGNY 談到的是我們為推動品牌知名度所做的很多事情，這實際上是在尋找真正使用我們品牌的人，用他們自己的話非常真實地講述我們的品牌如何融入他們生活的故事。我們稱這些人為無可辯駁的擁護者。他們生活在 TikTok、Insta 之類的東西上，他們——我們與他們建立關係，他們講述我們的故事。而且——它非常高效，這就是為什麼你看到我們的 A&P 線看起來比你在使用傳統工具的公司看到的更輕，因為它比傳統的內聯媒體效率高得多，後者不僅昂貴，而且效率低下。

So we've done that. I just saw some new stuff for my team yesterday that's coming on a couple of our brands that I'm very excited about. And we're just going to continue -- this is an evolution in terms of this digital marketing and the irrefutable advocates. We love it. We think it works for us, and we're going to continue to drive it hard.

所以我們已經做到了。昨天我剛剛為我的團隊看到了一些新東西，這些東西將出現在我們的幾個品牌上，我對此感到非常興奮。我們將繼續——這是數字營銷和無可辯駁的擁護者方面的演變。我們喜歡它。我們認為它對我們有用，我們將繼續努力推動它。

Great. And just one just quick question. How long do you think it will take to get back to fill rates that were in line with the pre-pandemic levels? I mean do you guys have any visibility or time line on that?

偉大的。只是一個簡單的問題。您認為需要多長時間才能恢復到與大流行前水平一致的填充率？我的意思是你們對此有任何可見性或時間表嗎？

We're -- frankly, we're there on some categories right now. So we gave you the north of 90% number, but this is a pretty vast portfolio, as you know. And so the way you should interpret that is that, that 90-ish number at the portfolio level has embedded in it in some categories and brands that are already back to which is best-in-class where we've already been.

我們 - 坦率地說，我們現在在某些類別上。所以我們給了你 90% 的數字，但正如你所知，這是一個相當龐大的投資組合。因此，您應該解釋的方式是，投資組合級別的 90 歲左右的數字已經嵌入到某些類別和品牌中，這些類別和品牌已經回到我們已經達到的同類最佳水平。

Equally, we have had manufacturing disruptions that we talked about quite a bit today that we're still on allocation or we're still replenishing stock on the shelf, and we have to do that before it's even in a scan. So you put those all together and you get that low 90 service level, the transitory stuff with the manufacturing disruptions we've got it contained, we're ramping it up. And so that average that we quoted today should improve from here.

同樣，我們今天談到了很多製造中斷，我們仍在分配或仍在貨架上補充庫存，我們必須在掃描之前就這樣做。所以你把所有這些放在一起，你會得到 90 的低服務水平，我們已經包含了製造中斷的暫時性東西，我們正在提高它。因此，我們今天引用的平均值應該會有所改善。

Dave, do you want to...

戴夫，你想...

Yes, just one thing to add, Nik, the -- our inventory levels and our days on hand, our safety stocks are finally back to pre-COVID levels where we want them. So we're in really good shape with our inventory levels, and we're well positioned. We have a couple of categories, which we've talked about, where we're still working through it. But overall, I feel really good about where we are now with our inventory levels.

是的，只有一件事要補充，尼克，我們的庫存水平和手頭的天數，我們的安全庫存終於回到了我們想要的 COVID 之前的水平。因此，我們的庫存水平非常好，而且我們處於有利地位。我們有幾個類別，我們已經討論過，我們仍在努力解決這些問題。但總的來說，我對我們現在的庫存水平感到非常滿意。

And our next question comes from Peter Galbo with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Peter Galbo。

Sean, I just wanted to clarify one of your comments. I think in your prepared remarks and talking about more of the recent Nielsen data you said you expected an acceleration kind of going forward in that data. But then if we just look at the 4Q guidance, obviously, there's a decel in the sales growth rate. So maybe you can just clarify that for us quickly.

肖恩，我只是想澄清你的一個評論。我認為在你準備好的評論中，你在談論更多最近的尼爾森數據時說，你預計這些數據會加速發展。但是，如果我們只看第 4 季度的指引，很明顯，銷售增長率有所下降。所以也許你可以快速為我們澄清一下。

Well, what I'm really getting at there is relative to Q3. I mean we -- as I pointed out in my prepared remarks, we had -- there's a lot of noise in the year-on-year quarterly data in Q3, both for us and peers. And we had some of the supply chain things hit us in Q3. So as we wrap some -- get past some of the unusual comps. We had some strong comps on big businesses in Q3. We move into Q4. The profile of the comps change on some of our big businesses, plus you'll see we get back in stock on some of these canned categories where we've had canned fish, where we've had some limited ability supply and those conspire to show improving consumption trends.

好吧，我真正得到的是相對於第三季度的。我的意思是我們——正如我在準備好的發言中指出的那樣——我們和同行在第三季度的同比季度數據中有很多噪音。我們在第三季度遇到了一些供應鏈問題。因此，當我們總結一些 - 超越一些不尋常的組合。我們在第三季度對大企業進行了一些強有力的比較。我們進入第四季度。我們的一些大企業的 comps 情況發生了變化，另外你會看到我們在一些罐頭類別中恢復庫存，我們有魚罐頭，我們有一些有限的能力供應，那些密謀消費趨勢向好。

So I referenced the 4-week Nielsen's ending 325. Today, our units and our dollars, you've seen improvements, and that's a 4-week number, right? So the fact that the staggering 4-week numbers that come out every two weeks improve, are kind of showing you embedded in that is weekly data that is improving week after week after week. And that's really what I was referring to.

所以我參考了 4 週尼爾森的結尾 325。今天，我們的單位和我們的美元，你已經看到了改進，這是一個 4 週的數字，對嗎？因此，每兩週出現驚人的 4 週數字改善的事實，有點表明你嵌入了每週數據，每週數據都在一周又一周地改善。這正是我所指的。

Got it. Okay. No, that's helpful. And Dave, going back to the question around CapEx, obviously, understanding the timing. Just also understanding, like cash flow from operations is actually running a little bit behind last year. Maybe that's a timing mismatch on working capital but how we should think about free cash flow maybe through the rest of this year and particularly as we get into next year with some of the debt maturities that you have upcoming.

知道了。好的。不，那很有幫助。戴夫，回到圍繞資本支出的問題，顯然，了解時機。還了解到，運營現金流實際上比去年有所落後。也許這是營運資金的時間不匹配，但我們應該如何考慮今年餘下時間的自由現金流，尤其是當我們進入明年的一些即將到期的債務時。

Yes, absolutely. All of the cash flow from operations impact that you're talking about is from us building back our inventory levels. So you'll see on our cash flow statement the increase in working capital related to inventory. And that gets back to the point I just made, where we are back to healthy levels with our inventory, great safety stock levels. So we feel really good going forward. So as we get into especially Q1 of fiscal '24, we should be in an opportunity where you can start to see inventory as more of a tailwind versus a headwind. And it's just been investment to build back our inventories to the safety stock levels that we want to be able to execute our plan.

是的，一點沒錯。您正在談論的所有來自運營影響的現金流都來自我們重建庫存水平。因此，您會在我們的現金流量表中看到與存貨相關的營運資金增加。這又回到了我剛剛提出的觀點，我們的庫存恢復到健康水平，安全庫存水平很高。所以我們感覺非常好。因此，當我們特別進入 24 財年第一季度時，我們應該有機會開始將庫存視為順風而不是逆風。這只是將我們的庫存恢復到我們希望能夠執行我們計劃的安全庫存水平的投資。

And our next question today comes from Alexia Howard with Bernstein.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Alexia Howard 和 Bernstein。

Can I, first of all, ask about the surge in the foodservice side of things. It's obviously been strong for a while. Are there particular channels in there that are doing very well? I'm just wondering about the overall recovery on that side of the business. And then I have a follow-up.

首先，我可以問一下餐飲服務方面的激增嗎？它顯然已經強大了一段時間。那裡是否有特定的渠道做得很好？我只是想知道這方面業務的整體復甦情況。然後我有一個後續行動。

Okay, Alexia. Yes, we're really pleased with Foodservice. Our sales were up 18%. We had just over a 1% volume decline. We've seen strength in a couple of different areas. Our commercial business has been up. We have a popcorn business, which was very healthy in terms of volumes in the quarter. And then obviously, the pricing. We've been able to pass on inflation justified pricing and we have not seen volume declines -- significant volume declines from that. So the area we're still focused on are margins. So we've seen nice improvement in margins in Foodservice, but we still have some work to do to get back to the pre-COVID margin level. So another 200 to 300 basis points of improvement, and I'll be happier with the margins. But overall, we're really pleased with kind of how our Foodservice business has bounced back.

好的，亞歷克西婭。是的，我們對 Foodservice 非常滿意。我們的銷售額增長了 18%。我們的銷量下降了 1% 以上。我們已經看到了幾個不同領域的優勢。我們的商業業務一直在上升。我們有爆米花業務，該業務在本季度的銷量方面非常健康。然後很明顯，定價。我們已經能夠通過通貨膨脹合理定價，而且我們沒有看到銷量下降 - 銷量大幅下降。所以我們仍然關注的領域是利潤率。因此，我們已經看到餐飲服務的利潤率有了很好的改善，但我們仍有一些工作要做才能回到 COVID 之前的利潤率水平。所以再提高 200 到 300 個基點，我會對利潤率感到滿意。但總的來說，我們對我們的餐飲業務如何反彈感到非常滿意。

Got it. And then as a follow-up, I'm just curious about the market share trends in Frozen. It looks as though things are down a bit in that part of the business. I'm wondering if it's supply constraints? And how does that recover over time? Is that a faster pace of innovation as we roll into 2024 or marketing? Or would pricing actions be needed on or promotional activity be needed on that side of the business?

知道了。然後作為後續行動，我只是對《冰雪奇緣》的市場份額趨勢感到好奇。看起來這部分業務的情況有點下滑。我想知道是否是供應限制？隨著時間的推移如何恢復？隨著我們進入 2024 年或市場營銷，這是否會加快創新步伐？或者是否需要在業務的這一方面採取定價行動或促銷活動？

Sure. Alexia, it's Sean. Yes, that is a great example of what I mean by noise in the quarter and year-on-year. I mean if you want to look at our sustained market share trends in Frozen since 2016, '17 when the innovation program really ramped up. It's been extremely strong consistently. And now we're wrapping a quarter where there is a bunch of noise in there. Let me just give you some examples of that.

當然。亞歷克西婭，是肖恩。是的，這是我所說的季度和同比噪音的一個很好的例子。我的意思是，如果你想看看自 2016 年以來我們在《冰雪奇緣》中持續的市場份額趨勢，17 年創新計劃真正加速時。它一直非常強大。現在我們正在包裝一個四分之一，那裡有一堆噪音。讓我舉幾個例子。

Omicron was last Q3, and we had businesses that performed especially single-serve meal exceedingly well during Omicron because people were staying home, they were having lunch at home, and so we had very big comps on some big businesses there. We also had competitors in Frozen in the year ago period that had major supply chain challenges and lost merchandising events where we picked it up also impacting our comps in the year ago period, and we did not repeat some of those this year.

Omicron 是最後一個第三季度，我們有一些企業在 Omicron 期間表現特別好，因為人們呆在家裡，他們在家裡吃午餐，所以我們對那裡的一些大企業有很大的補償。去年我們在《冰雪奇緣》中也遇到了競爭對手，他們面臨著重大的供應鏈挑戰和失去的商品銷售活動，我們在去年同期也影響了我們的競爭，我們今年沒有重複其中的一些。

And then you got the fish fire issue. So there is a fair amount -- and I should mention value over volume on Birds Eye is one of the things that volumetrically is going to affect those numbers because 10 for 10 promotions, and our company has we've weaned ourselves off a promotion big time since 2015. In the last quarter, we were just over 20%. But until we hit this most recent inflation cycle, there still have been surgical 10 for 10 in our company's portfolio that were not very profitable. They existed in two places. One was in low-tier vegetables and the other was in some of our canned meals and side businesses like Shepard's a good example. We have eliminated that practice. And this was the right window for us to do that, and we refer to that as value over volume.

然後你遇到了魚火問題。所以有一個公平的數量 - 我應該提到 Birds Eye 上的價值超過數量是數量上會影響這些數字的因素之一，因為 10 次促銷中有 10 次，我們公司已經戒掉了大型促銷活動自 2015 年以來的時間。在上個季度，我們剛剛超過 20%。但在我們遇到最近的通脹週期之前，我們公司的投資組合中仍然有 10 對 10 的外科手術，利潤不是很高。它們存在於兩個地方。一個是低端蔬菜，另一個是我們的一些罐頭食品和副業，比如 Shepard's 就是一個很好的例子。我們已經消除了這種做法。這是我們這樣做的正確窗口，我們將其稱為價值超過數量。

So as you've seen us do in the past, when we take that action, we will purge some low-profit volume out of our base, our margins will expand. We'll now have a much stronger base to build on with high quality, more premium innovation. And so that is one of the things we're doing at low-tier vegetables, getting out of that 10 for 10 business.

因此，正如您過去看到的那樣，當我們採取該行動時，我們將從我們的基地中清除一些低利潤量，我們的利潤率將會擴大。我們現在將擁有更強大的基礎，可以在高質量、更優質的創新基礎上繼續發展。因此，這是我們在低端蔬菜領域所做的事情之一，即擺脫 10 對 10 的業務。

So hopefully, that gives you some color. We feel awesome about our frozen business and the innovation pipeline we've got going forward.

所以希望這能給你一些顏色。我們對我們凍結的業務和我們前進的創新管道感到非常棒。

And our next question today comes from Jason English for Goldman Sachs.

我們今天的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

First, Ardent Mills JV banner year this year on top of a great year last year. I know you're not giving guidance for next year, but maybe you can help level set us as we look to normalized year, what do you think the right level of earnings is to model for that business?

首先，今年的 Ardent Mills JV 旗幟性年度高於去年的偉大年度。我知道你不會為明年提供指導，但也許你可以幫助我們設定水平，因為我們期待標準化的一年，你認為正確的收入水平是為該業務建模的？

Jason, it's a difficult question to answer. Artic Mills is a great business. It's a newer business. It's been growing, and it really has two key components of its business. It's core milling and blending business where it creates great flours that it sells to customers and then it has more of a trading type business. And so that core business has continued to grow, the margins have expanded. They have great mix. They have great strategies to really drive the margins on that business and the sales. And they've also benefited from this environment and the volatility on their trading side of the business.

傑森，這是一個很難回答的問題。 Artic Mills 是一家偉大的企業。這是一項較新的業務。它一直在增長，它的業務確實有兩個關鍵組成部分。它是核心的碾磨和混合業務，它生產優質麵粉並出售給客戶，然後它擁有更多的貿易類型業務。因此，核心業務持續增長，利潤率也有所擴大。他們有很好的組合。他們有很好的策略來真正推動該業務和銷售的利潤率。他們也受益於這種環境和業務交易方面的波動。

And so the question comes down to what's that trading piece? I think that the center line of performance for Ardent Mills will continue to go up. It's just quarter-to-quarter, there can be more volatility just given the nature of the business.

所以問題歸結為那個交易塊是什麼？我認為 Ardent Mills 的業績中心線將繼續上升。這只是一個季度到一個季度，考慮到業務的性質，波動性可能會更大。

Yes. Okay. Well, in the first quarter '21, you told me it was about $70 million was a reasonable number on an annualized basis. If the core business is growing, it sounds like it's north of $70 million. But clearly, well south of the 180-ish or whatever you're going to deliver this year somewhere in that range, I care. But any guidance in terms of where we're closer to?

是的。好的。好吧，在 21 年第一季度，你告訴我大約 7000 萬美元是按年計算的合理數字。如果核心業務在增長，這聽起來像是在 7000 萬美元以上。但很明顯，在 180 左右或今年你要在該範圍內的某個地方交付的任何東西，我都在乎。但是關於我們更接近哪裡的任何指導？

No, no, not at this point.

不，不，不是在這一點上。

Okay. And then the performance this quarter was solid. Obviously, volumes soft, but no worse than expected. Other than in Frozen, I mean, Frozen was a bit of an odd man out in terms of the relative underperformance of volume versus what we saw in Nielsen. You mentioned frozen fish. But can you unpack a little bit more of what drove the sharp sequential deceleration and the underperformance versus what we're seeing in Nielsen? And you mentioned you're pursuing a volume or value over volume, which makes sense. How are you rightsizing your manufacturing network to adjust for the lower volume throughput?

好的。然後本季度的表現很穩定。顯然，成交量疲軟，但並不比預期差。除了在《冰雪奇緣》中，我的意思是，《冰雪奇緣》在銷量相對錶現不佳方面與我們在尼爾森看到的情況相比有點奇怪。你提到冷凍魚。但是，與我們在尼爾森看到的情況相比，您能否進一步分析導致連續急劇減速和表現不佳的原因？你提到你追求的是數量或價值而不是數量，這是有道理的。您如何調整製造網絡以適應較低的吞吐量？

Yes. Jason, I'll come back to kind of the things that I just shared with Alexia. If you're looking at year-on-year decel, you have to consider what was in the last year. So you got to look at it at a brand level, you got to pull out the Omicron stuff. It's probably even better to look at it on a 2-year stack basis because you had Omicron strain in single-serve meals, you got weakness this year in fish. And then the bigger one is the right time to get off of the 10 for 10 promotions in Birds Eye is now because we're in a pricing cycle. And basically, the way to think about it is in an inflationary environment, you don't want to stick your promotion practices, especially these high-velocity promotions that are not very profitable. You don't want to stick to what where you were before an inflation supercycle. You have to move off that.

是的。 Jason，我會回來談談我剛剛與 Alexia 分享的事情。如果您正在查看同比減速，則必須考慮去年的情況。所以你必須從品牌層面來看待它，你必須拿出 Omicron 的東西。在 2 年的基礎上看它可能更好，因為你在單份餐食中有 Omicron 菌株，你今年在魚方面有弱點。然後更大的是在 Birds Eye 中取消 10 對 10 促銷的正確時間，因為我們處於定價週期中。基本上，考慮它的方式是在通貨膨脹的環境中，你不想堅持你的促銷做法，尤其是這些不是很有利可圖的高速促銷。你不想堅持通貨膨脹超級週期之前的狀態。你必須擺脫它。

And frankly, while these inflation cycles are painful for manufacturers to go through to a degree, sometimes they're actually quite good for you because they become a catalyst for getting your pricing right and getting off of legacy promotions that customers are very attached to that are low profitability. So just the timing is right for us to go further on that and on the business as I cited some of it in Frozen and some of it in our can business.

坦率地說，雖然這些通貨膨脹週期對製造商來說在一定程度上是痛苦的，但有時它們實際上對您非常有利，因為它們成為使您的定價正確並擺脫客戶非常依賴的傳統促銷活動的催化劑盈利能力低。因此，正如我在《冰雪奇緣》中引用的一些內容和我們的罐頭業務中引用的一些內容一樣，我們在這方面和業務上進一步發展的時機恰到好處。

And our next question today comes from Rob Dickerson with Jefferies.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Rob Dickerson。

Just one question for me. Just to stick on the Refrigerated & Frozen line of questioning. So Sean, profitability margin in that segment was clearly the highest, I think, we've ever seen. And clearly, a huge step up year-over-year, a huge step up relative to Q1 of this year. It sounds like maybe there's some need over time to kind of increasingly invest in that side of the business. But at the same time, you're almost sitting at 21% op margin. So as we think forward, whether it's Q4 or next year or 5 years forward, would you say now you've kind of reached kind of a point of profitability on that business that maybe you would have expected coming out of the Pinnacle acquisition? And is that level of profitability sustainable or at least within some rational range factor again the volatility of the supply chain, et cetera. That's it.

只問我一個問題。只是堅持冷藏和冷凍的問題。所以肖恩，我認為該細分市場的利潤率顯然是我們見過的最高的。很明顯，與去年同期相比有了巨大的進步，相對於今年第一季度有了巨大的進步。聽起來隨著時間的推移可能需要越來越多地投資於業務的這一方面。但與此同時，您的運營利潤率幾乎達到 21%。因此，當我們展望未來時，無論是第四季度、明年還是未來 5 年，您是否會說現在您已經達到了該業務的某種盈利點，也許您會期望從 Pinnacle 收購中獲得利潤？並且這種盈利水平是否可持續，或者至少在某個合理範圍內，供應鏈的波動性等因素。就是這樣。

Rob, yes, we saw a pretty massive expansion in that frozen refrigerated segment. And part of it was -- were things like the vegetable promotion decisions that we made that contribute to that. And it's one of the reasons why I always remind our investors before you get too focused on absolute gross margin numbers, focus on gross margin trajectory because through an investor's lens, that's I think what people want is they want gross margins that can sustainably move north.

羅布，是的，我們看到冷凍冷藏部分出現了相當大的擴張。部分原因是——我們做出的蔬菜促銷決定促成了這一點。這也是為什麼我總是提醒我們的投資者，在你過於關注絕對毛利率數字之前，關注毛利率軌蹟的原因之一，因為從投資者的角度來看，我認為人們想要的是他們希望毛利率能夠可持續地向北移動.

And so with our company and where we were even 10 years ago because of the lack of innovation and because of legacy prices that were stuck at certain levels or, in some cases, decades, you saw that structural margins had drifted lower. Well, by unwinding that under management, premiumizing the portfolio, we have the ability over time across all of our segments, we believe, to drive northward progress in our gross margins. And that is central to our strategy. That's what we're doing in frozen, and it's one of the things that contributed to the growth in the quarter.

因此，對於我們公司，甚至在 10 年前，由於缺乏創新，以及由於遺留價格停留在特定水平，或者在某些情況下，幾十年，你會看到結構性利潤率已經下降。好吧，我們相信，通過解除管理下的資產，優化投資組合，我們相信隨著時間的推移，我們有能力在所有部門推動毛利率向北發展。這是我們戰略的核心。這就是我們在冷凍業務中所做的，也是促成本季度增長的因素之一。

The only other color I would give on Frozen specifically is something I mentioned at CAGNY, which is to be very profitable in Frozen, you have to have scale. And we have been very deliberate over the last several years and continuing to build our scale in Frozen because when you've got scale, you can drive that profit and that margin improvement. And if you've got the innovation program that wins with consumers, then you've got the trifecta. So that's really our game plan.

我在《冰雪奇緣》中特別提到的唯一其他顏色是我在 CAGNY 提到的，在《冰雪奇緣》中要非常有利可圖，你必須有規模。在過去的幾年裡，我們一直非常謹慎，並繼續在《冰雪奇緣》中擴大我們的規模，因為當你有了規模時，你就可以推動利潤和利潤率的提高。如果您擁有贏得消費者青睞的創新計劃，那麼您就擁有了三連勝。所以這真的是我們的遊戲計劃。

And just to clarify, obviously realized you're not guiding for next fiscal year, but all of us have to put something in our model. So I'm just curious, if I look at that percent margin operating in Q3, it doesn't sound -- what you're saying is there's anything necessarily in there that was one-off that could have inflated that in a given quarter, that's basically kind of what you were managing toward that hopefully would be somewhat sustainable.

澄清一下，顯然意識到你沒有指導下一個財政年度，但我們所有人都必須在我們的模型中加入一些東西。所以我很好奇，如果我看一下第三季度的營業利潤率百分比，這聽起來並不——你的意思是那裡必然有任何一次性的東西，可能會在給定的季度裡誇大它，這基本上就是您正在努力實現的目標，希望在某種程度上是可持續的。

Yes, Rob, this is David. I think that's fair. I think if you kind of step back and you just look at the last two quarters, and this applies to further apply to the entire domestic retail business. The gross margins have inflected why volume has been down 8.5% to 9%. So we've been able to improve the margins with the volume decline because it gets back to the earlier point. We know there's elasticities on pricing. So we knew there was going to be volume declines and we planned for it, and it's all in the sort of the forecast for the margin. So we don't see that materially changing. We're not going to give you a specific number, but I think those dynamics are right and that's why this value over volume approach is really important that we look category by category, and we understand the dynamics, and we focus on managing our margin as we manage the volume.

是的，羅伯，這是大衛。我認為這很公平。我想如果你退後一步，看看過去兩個季度，這適用於進一步適用於整個國內零售業務。毛利率影響了銷量下降 8.5% 至 9% 的原因。因此，我們已經能夠通過銷量下降來提高利潤率，因為它回到了之前的點。我們知道定價有彈性。所以我們知道銷量會下降，我們為此做好了計劃，這一切都在對利潤率的預測中。所以我們看不到這種實質性變化。我們不會給你一個具體的數字，但我認為這些動態是正確的，這就是為什麼這種價值高於數量的方法非常重要，我們逐個類別地看，我們了解動態，我們專注於管理我們的利潤當我們管理音量時。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Melissa Napier for any closing remarks.

女士們，先生們，今天的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Melissa Napier，聽取任何閉幕詞。

Thank you very much for joining us this morning. Investor Relations is around for any additional follow-up questions that you might have. We hope everyone has a wonderful day.

非常感謝您今天早上加入我們。投資者關係部隨時為您解答您可能有的任何其他後續問題。我們希望每個人都有美好的一天。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家出席今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。