康尼格拉食品 (CAG) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Conagra Brands Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this event is being recorded today. I would now like to turn the conference over to Melissa Napier, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎參加康尼格拉品牌 2023 財年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天正在錄製此事件。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係主管梅麗莎·納皮爾 (Melissa Napier)。請繼續。

Good morning. Thanks for joining us for our Conagra Brands Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2023 Earnings Call. I'm here with Sean Connolly, our CEO; and Dave Marberger, our CFO, who will discuss our business performance. We'll take your questions when our prepared remarks conclude.

早上好。感謝您參加我們的康尼格拉品牌第四季度和 2023 財年收益電話會議。我和我們的首席執行官肖恩·康諾利 (Sean Connolly) 一起來到這裡。我們的首席財務官戴夫·馬伯格 (Dave Marberger) 將討論我們的業務績效。當我們準備好的發言結束時，我們將回答您的問題。

On today's call, we will be making some forward-looking statements. And while we are making these statements in good faith, we do not have any guarantee about the results we will achieve. Descriptions of our risk factors are included in the documents we filed with the SEC.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將做出一些前瞻性聲明。雖然我們真誠地做出這些聲明，但我們對我們將取得的結果沒有任何保證。我們向 SEC 提交的文件中包含對我們風險因素的描述。

We'll also be discussing some non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP and adjusted numbers refer to measures that exclude items management believes impact the comparability for the period referenced. Please see the earnings release for additional information on our comparability items.

我們還將討論一些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些非公認會計原則和調整後的數字是指排除管理層認為影響所參考期間可比性的項目的衡量標準。有關我們的可比項目的更多信息，請參閱收益發布。

The GAAP and non-GAAP reconciliations can be found in the earnings press release and in the slides that we'll be reviewing on today's call, both of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

公認會計準則和非公認會計準則的對賬可以在收益新聞稿和我們將在今天的電話會議上審查的幻燈片中找到，這兩者都可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

And I'll now turn the call over to Sean to get us started.

現在我將把電話轉給肖恩，讓我們開始。

Thanks, Melissa. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter fiscal '23 earnings call. I'll start with the business update on the quarter and fiscal year and then share how we're thinking about 2024 and beyond.

謝謝，梅麗莎。大家早上好，感謝您參加我們的 23 財年第四季度財報電話會議。我將從本季度和財年的業務更新開始，然後分享我們對 2024 年及以後的看法。

Slide 6 outlines what we'd like you to take away from today's call. In Q4, we delivered solid profit and margin growth despite the disruption from one of our frozen logistics partners, Americold, which impacted both our sales and costs during the quarter.

第 6 張幻燈片概述了我們希望您從今天的電話會議中獲得的收穫。在第四季度，儘管我們的冷凍物流合作夥伴之一 Americold 造成了乾擾，影響了我們本季度的銷售和成本，但我們仍實現了穩健的利潤和利潤增長。

For the full fiscal year, I'm proud of the way our team navigated a dynamic operating environment to deliver strong results. These efforts to execute against our fiscal '23 strategic priorities and the continued implementation of our playbook have our brands well positioned following the volatility of the past few years.

在整個財年，我對我們的團隊在充滿活力的運營環境中取得強勁業績的方式感到自豪。這些根據我們 23 財年戰略重點執行的努力以及我們行動手冊的持續實施，使我們的品牌在經歷了過去幾年的波動後處於有利地位。

As you'll see, our outlook for fiscal year 2024 reflects a transition toward a more normalized operating environment as well as a continued commitment to our long-term financial algorithm.

正如您將看到的，我們對 2024 財年的展望反映了向更加規範化的運營環境的過渡，以及對我們長期財務算法的持續承諾。

With that overview, let's dive into the results, starting on Slide 7. Organic net sales for the quarter grew over 2% compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal '22, and adjusted gross margin of 27% represents a 216 basis point increase over the fourth quarter last year.

有了這個概述，讓我們從幻燈片 7 開始深入研究結果。與 22 財年第四季度相比，該季度的有機淨銷售額增長了 2% 以上，調整後的毛利率為 27%，比上年同期增長了 216 個基點。去年第四季度。

The full-year results underscore the strength of our performance across all 4 metrics, including 6.6% organic net sales growth and 17.4% adjusted EPS growth compared to the prior-year period, as well as robust gross and operating margin improvement.

全年業績凸顯了我們在所有 4 個指標上的強勁表現，包括與上年同期相比 6.6% 的有機淨銷售額增長和 17.4% 的調整後每股收益增長，以及毛利率和營業利潤率的強勁改善。

Looking back at our priorities going into fiscal '23, we're pleased to say that we delivered on each of them. We continued our disciplined pricing execution in the face of ongoing inflation, which helped to drive margin recovery a top priority coming into fiscal '23. Our supply chain continued to improve as we made meaningful progress on our cost-savings initiatives, which in turn led to a vast improvement in service levels.

回顧我們進入 23 財年的優先事項，我們很高興地說我們已經實現了每一項目標。面對持續的通貨膨脹，我們繼續嚴格執行定價，這有助於推動利潤率恢復成為 23 財年的首要任務。我們的供應鏈持續改善，我們在成本節約計劃方面取得了有意義的進展，從而極大地提高了服務水平。

We remain committed to lowering our net leverage ratio, which was reduced from 4.0x to 3.6x by the end of the fiscal year. And we did all of this while investing to maintain the brand strength that we've built up for many years running.

我們仍然致力於降低淨槓桿率，到本財年末已從 4.0 倍降至 3.6 倍。我們在做這一切的同時，還進行了投資，以維持我們多年來建立的品牌實力。

Let's take a closer look at these priorities, starting with the impact of our inflation-justified pricing actions on Slide 9. As you can see, pricing peaked in Q3, but remains almost 17% above the prior year due to our actions to offset ongoing COGS inflation. During the fourth quarter, elasticities did soften a bit, but remain fairly consistent well below historical norms and in line or better than competitors.

讓我們仔細看看這些優先事項，首先從幻燈片 9 上我們的通貨膨脹合理定價行動的影響開始。如您所見，定價在第三季度達到頂峰，但由於我們採取了抵消持續通貨膨脹的行動，定價仍比上一年高出近 17%銷貨成本通脹。第四季度，彈性確實有所減弱，但仍相當穩定，遠低於歷史正常水平，與競爭對手持平或更好。

Our strong execution was instrumental in driving margin recovery, which is detailed on Slide 10. As we've previously discussed, there is an inherent lag between the time when inflation hits and when we're able to recover that cost through inflation-justified pricing. This lag effect results in temporarily compressed margins as we saw, most notably throughout fiscal '22.

我們強大的執行力在推動利潤率恢復方面發揮了重要作用，幻燈片 10 對此進行了詳細介紹。正如我們之前所討論的，通貨膨脹到來的時間與我們能夠通過通貨膨脹合理定價收回成本之間存在固有的滯後性。正如我們所看到的，這種滯後效應導致利潤率暫時壓縮，尤其是整個 22 財年。

We took great strides to recover our gross margin in fiscal '23, and Q4 was our third consecutive quarter of strong margin improvement, up 216 basis points in the fourth quarter compared to the prior year.

我們在 23 財年取得了長足的進步，恢復了毛利率，第四季度是我們連續第三個季度實現利潤率強勁增長，與上一年相比，第四季度增長了 216 個基點。

Turning to Slide 11. We continue to advance our supply chain initiatives, investing to rebuild our own inventory, which helped us to deliver service levels of 95% as we exited the fiscal year. While we're making strong progress in supply chain, it's not yet back to normal as we experienced transitory disruptions in the quarter such as the cybersecurity event at Americold.

轉向幻燈片 11。我們繼續推進我們的供應鏈計劃，投資重建我們自己的庫存，這幫助我們在本財年結束時提供了 95% 的服務水平。雖然我們在供應鏈方面取得了巨大進展，但尚未恢復正常，因為我們在本季度經歷了短暫的中斷，例如 Americold 的網絡安全事件。

That said, we're pleased with our progress so far and see more room for improvement in fiscal '24, including investing in technology and modernization as the operating environment continues to normalize.

也就是說，我們對迄今為止取得的進展感到滿意，並認為 24 財年有更大的改進空間，包括隨著運營環境繼續正常化而投資於技術和現代化。

Slide 12 highlights one of the key ways in which we are investing to maintain brand strength, our persistent focus on modernizing brands through innovation. The innovations we've launched since fiscal 2018 generated nearly $1.8 billion in retail sales during the last fiscal year. And unlike many in our space, we continue to innovate during the pandemic with new product launches since fiscal '21, now representing more than half of that total.

幻燈片 12 重點介紹了我們投資維持品牌實力的關鍵方式之一，即我們對通過創新實現品牌現代化的持續關注。我們自 2018 財年以來推出的創新在上一財年創造了近 18 億美元的零售額。與我們領域的許多公司不同的是，自 21 財年以來，我們在大流行期間繼續創新，推出了新產品，目前佔總數的一半以上。

Importantly, our innovation has built some really strong and sustainable platforms, including Bowls, Slim Jim Savage and Duncan Hines EPIC.

重要的是，我們的創新建立了一些真正強大且可持續的平台，包括 Bowls、Slim Jim Savage 和 Duncan Hines EPIC。

Our strategic frozen and snacks domains have been the focus of our innovation engine. As Slide 13 highlights, they are growing domains, and we've helped architect that growth. Over the past 4 years, the frozen and snacks categories, in which we compete, have grown 9% and 8%, respectively, outpacing total food growth. Within our portfolio, frozen and snacks together now represent almost 70% of our domestic retail dollar sales, and we've consistently increased our share within these strong and growing domains.

我們的戰略冷凍和零食領域一直是我們創新引擎的重點。正如幻燈片 13 所強調的那樣，它們是不斷增長的領域，我們幫助構建了這種增長。過去 4 年裡，我們參與競爭的冷凍品類和零食品類分別增長了 9% 和 8%，超過了食品總量的增長。在我們的產品組合中，冷凍食品和零食目前幾乎占我們國內零售銷售額的 70%，並且我們在這些強大且不斷增長的領域中的份額不斷增加。

Looking more closely at frozen, Slide 14 shows the growth of this category over the past 9 years, which represents the time frame in which we reinvented our approach to frozen food.

更仔細地觀察冷凍食品，幻燈片 14 顯示了該類別在過去 9 年的增長，這代表了我們重新發明冷凍食品方法的時間範圍。

Since fiscal 2014, the frozen categories in which Conagra competes, have grown from $29 billion to $54 billion, representing a 7% CAGR. And Conagra has increased our share by nearly 500 basis points to become the leader in frozen. This growth is a testament to our continual effort to modernize and support our strong brands as part of the Conagra Way playbook.

自 2014 財年以來，康尼格拉參與競爭的冷凍品類已從 290 億美元增長至 540 億美元，複合年增長率為 7%。康尼格拉將我們的份額增加了近 500 個基點，成為冷凍食品領域的領導者。這一增長證明了我們作為 Conagra Way 策略的一部分，不斷努力實現現代化並支持我們的強大品牌。

One example of that brand strength is how our unit sales stack up to our peers. As you can see on Slide 15, even during the year of significant pricing, 7 of our top 10 frozen product segments held or grew unit share in fiscal '23.

品牌實力的一個例子是我們的單位銷量如何與同行相比。正如您在幻燈片 15 中看到的那樣，即使在價格大幅上漲的一年中，我們排名前 10 的冷凍產品領域中的 7 個在 23 財年仍保持或增長了單位份額。

The same is true in our snacks portfolio. As you can see on Slide 16, our 2 largest snacking platforms meat snacks and microwave popcorn also gained unit share during fiscal '23.

我們的零食產品組合也是如此。正如您在幻燈片 16 中看到的，我們的 2 個最大的零食平台肉類零食和微波爐爆米花在 23 財年也獲得了單位份額。

Now let's turn to the year ahead. As we continue to emerge from unprecedented operating conditions, including both COVID and the inflation super cycle, we anticipate fiscal '24 to be a transition toward a more normalized operating environment. That transition will include a few tailwinds and headwinds that are outlined on Slide 19.

現在讓我們展望未來的一年。隨著我們繼續擺脫前所未有的運營環境（包括新冠疫情和通脹超級週期），我們預計 24 財年將向更加正常化的運營環境過渡。這一轉變將包括幻燈片 19 中概述的一些順風和逆風。

Starting with the tailwinds, in fiscal '24, we will be wrapping the various discrete supply chain disruptions that persisted throughout the year. As the operating environment continues to normalize, we will also benefit from the ongoing advancement of our productivity initiatives, and we expect our investments in innovation to continue to deliver strong results, building upon our track record of success.

從順風車開始，在 24 財年，我們將解決全年持續存在的各種離散供應鏈中斷問題。隨著運營環境繼續正常化，我們還將受益於生產力計劃的持續進步，我們預計我們對創新的投資將在我們成功的記錄的基礎上繼續取得強勁成果。

Now let's talk headwinds. First, shifting consumer behavior. As you can see in the weekly scanner data, food companies are starting to wrap pricing in the year-ago period and dollar sales are coming down as expected.

現在我們來談談逆風。首先，改變消費者行為。正如您在每週掃描數據中看到的那樣，食品公司開始對去年同期的定價進行包裝，並且美元銷售額按預期下降。

But the rate of improvement in volume recovery is lagging. That suggests new consumer behavior shifts beyond the initial elasticity effects that occurred when pricing actions were initially taken.

但成交量恢復的改善速度卻滯後。這表明新的消費者行為超出了最初採取定價行動時發生的初始彈性效應。

We've seen this dynamic since just after Easter, and it has been broad-based across many categories and competitors. And importantly, where we see it, it is usually not a trade down to lower-priced alternatives within the category. Rather, it's an overall category slowdown.

自複活節後不久我們就看到了這種動態，並且它在許多類別和競爭對手中都有廣泛的基礎。重要的是，在我們看來，這通常不是降級到該類別內價格較低的替代品。相反，這是整體類別的放緩。

The question is, why now, given the steadiness we've seen from the consumer for 2 years? There are several possibilities at the root of this. One behavior shift we've heard about from consumers is just buying fewer items overall, more of a hunkering down than a trading down.

問題是，考慮到我們兩年來消費者的穩定性，為什麼是現在呢？其根源有多種可能性。我們從消費者那裡聽到的一種行為轉變是總體上減少購買商品，更多的是減少購買而不是降價購買。

There are several potential reasons as to why, including this summer being more travel intensive than last year. Overall, we view this dynamic as likely temporary behavior shift for consumers to stretch their budgets, but we have captured it as a near-term headwind in our outlook.

原因有幾個，其中包括今年夏天的旅行比去年更加密集。總體而言，我們認為這種動態可能是消費者延長預算的暫時行為轉變，但我們將其視為我們前景中的近期阻力。

Moving to the second headwind. While very limited, we have seen a few single-ingredient brands become deflationary, and we will make appropriate price adjustments to reflect that.

轉向第二個逆風。雖然非常有限，但我們已經看到一些單一成分品牌出現通貨緊縮，我們將做出適當的價格調整以反映這一點。

Finally, the reduction of pension income and decline in contribution from Ardent Mills compared to its strong fiscal '23 performance, will impact our earnings performance compared to the prior year.

最後，與 Ardent Mills 強勁的 23 財年業績相比，養老金收入的減少和繳款額的下降將影響我們與上一年相比的盈利表現。

To maximize our competitiveness this year, we will continue to execute our playbook and invest in our business. And Slide 20 highlights one of our most important investments, our biggest innovation slate to date.

為了最大限度地提高我們今年的競爭力，我們將繼續執行我們的策略並投資於我們的業務。第 20 張幻燈片重點介紹了我們最重要的投資之一，也是我們迄今為止最大的創新項目。

Our fiscal '24 innovation lineup features a compelling mix of convenient, value-added meals, restaurant experiences and exciting licenses. We expect our most significant new innovation to be in distribution by the end of Q1 and build throughout the rest of the year. These innovations, coupled with our consumer and customer support, will help us effectively navigate the dynamic marketplace conditions.

我們的 24 財年創新陣容將便捷的增值餐食、餐廳體驗和令人興奮的許可證融為一體。我們預計我們最重要的新創新將在第一季度末進行分發，並在今年剩餘時間內進行構建。這些創新，加上我們的消費者和客戶支持，將幫助我們有效地駕馭動態的市場條件。

Slide 21 outlines our financial guidance for fiscal '24. We expect organic net sales growth of approximately 1% over fiscal '23, adjusted operating margin of 16% to 16.5% and adjusted EPS between $2.70 to $2.75.

第 21 幻燈片概述了我們 24 財年的財務指導。我們預計 23 財年有機淨銷售額增長約 1%，調整後營業利潤率為 16% 至 16.5%，調整後每股收益為 2.70 美元至 2.75 美元。

As Dave will unpack further, our EPS guidance reflects our expectation for growth from the underlying business operations, which is being muted by the previously mentioned impacts from lower contribution from Ardent Mills and pension income.

正如戴夫將進一步闡述的那樣，我們的每股收益指引反映了我們對基礎業務運營增長的預期，但由於前面提到的 Ardent Mills 貢獻和養老金收入下降的影響，這一預期正在減弱。

Overall, Conagra continues to benefit from strong brands, strong processes and strong people, which are all working together to drive sustainable growth and margin expansion. With that, I'll pass the call over to Dave to cover the financials in more detail.

總體而言，康尼格拉繼續受益於強大的品牌、強大的流程和強大的人才，這些都共同努力推動可持續增長和利潤擴張。這樣，我會將電話轉給戴夫，以更詳細地介紹財務狀況。

Thanks, Sean, and good morning, everyone. As Sean noted, we've made great progress from this time 1 year ago, as shown on this page. We navigated a challenging operating environment and successfully delivered on our priorities to implement inflation-justified pricing, drive gross margin recovery, reduced net leverage and rebuild inventory levels, all while investing to maintain the strength of our brands.

謝謝肖恩，大家早上好。正如 Sean 指出的，從一年前的這個時候開始，我們已經取得了巨大的進步，如本頁所示。我們應對了充滿挑戰的經營環境，並成功實現了我們的優先事項，即實施通脹合理定價、推動毛利率復甦、降低淨槓桿率和重建庫存水平，同時進行投資以維持我們品牌的實力。

This enabled us to deliver strong full-year results that exceeded our original fiscal '23 expectations on all metrics.

這使我們能夠交付強勁的全年業績，在所有指標上都超出了我們最初對 23 財年的預期。

Slide 24 highlights our results from the quarter and full fiscal year. During fiscal '23, we delivered strong top line growth, with full-year organic net sales up 6.6% compared to fiscal '22, driven by our inflation-justified pricing and modest elasticities.

幻燈片 24 重點介紹了我們本季度和整個財年的業績。在 23 財年期間，我們實現了強勁的營收增長，在通脹合理定價和適度彈性的推動下，全年有機淨銷售額比 22 財年增長了 6.6%。

Margin recovery was a top priority for fiscal '23 and our business delivered, increasing adjusted gross margin by 226 basis points and adjusted operating margin by 125 basis points for the full year. This margin enhancement contributed to strong full-year adjusted EPS growth of 17.4%.

利潤率恢復是 23 財年的首要任務，我們的業務實現了目標，全年調整後毛利率提高了 226 個基點，調整後營業利潤率提高了 125 個基點。利潤率的提高帶動了全年調整後每股收益 17.4% 的強勁增長。

Slide 25 shows our net sales bridge for the quarter and full year. The increases in fourth quarter and full-year organic net sales were driven by improvements in price/mix, primarily from inflation-justified pricing actions, and were partially offset by a decrease in volumes.

幻燈片 25 顯示了我們本季度和全年的淨銷售額橋樑。第四季度和全年有機淨銷售額的增長是由價格/組合的改善推動的，主要是由於通貨膨脹合理的定價行為，但部分被銷量的下降所抵消。

We estimate that our fourth quarter volume was impacted by the transitory supply chain disruptions from the cybersecurity incident at Americold, impacting revenue by approximately 50 basis points in the quarter.

我們估計，我們第四季度的銷量受到 Americold 網絡安全事件造成的短暫供應鏈中斷的影響，影響了該季度收入約 50 個基點。

This disruption negatively impacted sales in our Refrigerated & Frozen segment during the fourth quarter, an impact of approximately 110 basis points for the quarter.

這一中斷對我們第四季度冷藏和冷凍部門的銷售產生了負面影響，該季度的影響約為 110 個基點。

Despite this discrete situation in Refrigerated & Frozen, we were pleased to deliver solid sales growth in all other segments during the fourth quarter. And both our Grocery & Snacks and Refrigerated & Frozen segments delivered 6.1% organic net sales growth for full-year fiscal '23.

儘管冷藏和冷凍領域存在這種離散的情況，但我們很高興在第四季度在所有其他領域實現了穩健的銷售增長。我們的雜貨和零食以及冷藏和冷凍部門在 23 財年全年實現了 6.1% 的有機淨銷售額增長。

We detail our adjusted operating margin bridge on Slide 27. As Sean discussed, we are pleased to have delivered a third consecutive quarter of strong gross margin improvement, up 216 basis points in Q4.

我們在幻燈片 27 上詳細介紹了調整後的營業利潤率橋。正如 Sean 所討論的，我們很高興連續第三個季度實現了毛利率的強勁改善，第四季度增長了 216 個基點。

We drove a 7.1% margin gain from improved price/mix during the quarter and realized a 40 basis point net benefit from continued progress on our supply chain productivity initiatives. These pricing and productivity benefits were partially offset by continued inflationary pressure, with market inflation and market-based sourcing negatively impacting our margins by 2.1% and 3.3%, respectively.

本季度，我們因價格/組合改善而實現了 7.1% 的利潤增長，並因供應鏈生產力計劃的持續進展而實現了 40 個基點的淨收益。這些定價和生產力優勢被持續的通脹壓力部分抵消，市場通脹和基於市場的採購對我們的利潤率分別產生了 2.1% 和 3.3% 的負面影響。

Adjusted operating margin was 14.6% for the fourth quarter, which was a 39 basis point decline versus a year ago. The strong gross margin improvement was more than offset by increased A&P investment and an increase in SG&A from both higher-incentive compensation expense and transitory asset write-offs in the quarter.

第四季度調整後營業利潤率為 14.6%，較去年同期下降 39 個基點。毛利率的強勁增長被本季度 A&P 投資的增加以及更高的激勵補償費用和臨時資產沖銷帶來的 SG&A 的增加所抵消。

One additional call-out on this slide. Our cost of goods sold inflation headwind of 5.4% is calculated by netting our Q4 market inflation and our market-based sourcing. Previously, market-based sourcing was captured in our net productivity column. We believe this format is more meaningful to investors, and this change will be applied in our materials, going forward.

這張幻燈片上還有一個額外的標註。我們的銷售成本 5.4% 的通脹逆風是通過扣除第四季度市場通脹和基於市場的採購計算得出的。此前，基於市場的採購包含在我們的淨生產力欄中。我們相信這種格式對投資者來說更有意義，並且這種變化將在我們的材料中得到應用。

Slide 28 details our margin performance by segment for Q4. Refrigerated & Frozen continued its strong operating profit and margin improvement in the quarter, with adjusted operating margin improving 286 basis points versus a year ago. Grocery & Snack operating margins were down 248 basis points due primarily to increased inventory reserves for excess seasonal inventory, along with unfavorable manufacturing overhead absorption.

幻燈片 28 詳細介紹了我們第四季度按細分市場劃分的利潤率表現。冷藏與冷凍業務本季度繼續保持強勁的營業利潤和利潤率改善，調整後的營業利潤率比去年同期提高了 286 個基點。雜貨和零食營業利潤率下降了 248 個基點，主要是由於季節性庫存過多而增加了庫存儲備，以及不利的製造費用吸收。

The International segment increased adjusted operating margin 497 basis points in the quarter, driven primarily by pricing, while the Foodservice segment adjusted operating margins were down 75 basis points due to some transitory asset write-offs.

國際業務部門本季度調整後營業利潤率增長了 497 個基點，主要受定價推動，而餐飲服務部門調整後營業利潤率由於一些暫時性資產沖銷而下降了 75 個基點。

Also, as highlighted in our earnings release, results from our annual goodwill intangible impairment testing also negatively impacted reported profits primarily in our Grocery & Snacks and Refrigerated & Frozen segments. The primary driver of the impairment charges was the increase in our discount rate due to the current interest rate environment.

此外，正如我們的收益發布中所強調的，我們的年度商譽無形減值測試結果也對主要在我們的雜貨和零食以及冷藏和冷凍部門的報告利潤產生了負面影響。減值費用的主要驅動因素是當前利率環境導致貼現率上升。

Slide 29 shows adjusted EPS bridges for the fourth quarter and full year compared to fiscal '22. In the fourth quarter, adjusted EPS from operations was flat as the increase in adjusted gross profit was offset by the increases in A&P and SG&A mentioned previously.

幻燈片 29 顯示了與 22 財年相比，第四季度和全年調整後的每股收益橋樑。第四季度，調整後運營每股收益持平，因為調整後毛利潤的增長被前面提到的 A&P 和 SG&A 的增長所抵消。

Total EPS for Q4 was down 4.6% as the flat operating profit and benefit from our equity method investment earnings was more than offset by lower pension and postretirement income, higher interest expense and higher adjusted taxes.

第四季度的總每股收益下降了 4.6%，因為我們的權益法投資收益的持平營業利潤和收益被較低的養老金和退休後收入、較高的利息支出和較高的調整後稅收所抵消。

On the bottom half of the slide, you can see that our year-over-year EPS growth of 17.4% was entirely attributed to the operating profit increase of $0.41, which underscores the strength of the underlying business. The benefit of $0.11 from our Ardent Mills joint venture was offset by increased pension and interest expense.

在幻燈片的下半部分，您可以看到我們 17.4% 的 EPS 同比增長完全歸因於營業利潤增長 0.41 美元，這凸顯了基礎業務的實力。我們的 Ardent Mills 合資企業帶來的 0.11 美元收益被養老金和利息支出的增加所抵消。

Slide 30 includes our key balance sheet and cash flow metrics. At the end of fiscal '23, our net leverage ratio was 3.63x, down from 3.99x at the end of the prior year. Our net cash flow from operating activities reflects continued investments to rebuild our inventory levels. Going forward, we are well positioned to support sustained demand across categories.

幻燈片 30 包括我們的關鍵資產負債表和現金流量指標。截至 23 財年末，我們的淨槓桿率為 3.63 倍，低於上年末的 3.99 倍。我們的經營活動產生的淨現金流量反映了為重建庫存水平而持續進行的投資。展望未來，我們已做好充分準備來支持跨類別的持續需求。

Year-to-date CapEx was $362 million at the end of fiscal '23, down from $464 million in the prior year due to the timing of projects. We continue to prioritize returning capital to shareholders as we paid $624 million in dividends in fiscal '23, up 7.2% versus fiscal '22, and we paid $150 million to repurchase shares in fiscal '23, up from $50 million a year ago.

由於項目時間安排，截至 23 財年末，年初至今的資本支出為 3.62 億美元，低於上一年的 4.64 億美元。我們繼續優先考慮向股東返還資本，因為我們在 23 財年支付了 6.24 億美元的股息，比 22 財年增長了 7.2%，並且我們在 23 財年支付了 1.5 億美元回購股票，高於一年前的 5000 萬美元。

I'd like to spend a minute reviewing our guidance for fiscal '24. Slide 31 outlines our expectations for our 3 key metrics, including organic net sales growth of approximately 1% over fiscal '23, adjusted operating margin growth between 16% to 16.5% and adjusted EPS between $2.70 to $2.75.

我想花一點時間回顧一下我們對 24 財年的指導。第 31 張幻燈片概述了我們對 3 個關鍵指標的預期，包括較 23 財年約 1% 的有機淨銷售額增長、調整後營業利潤率增長 16% 至 16.5% 以及調整後每股收益 2.70 美元至 2.75 美元。

Let's take a closer look at the drivers of our adjusted EPS guidance on Slide 32. Compared to the prior-year period, we anticipate continued improvement to our adjusted gross profit to be offset by the impact of elevated investments in A&P and SG&A to support our innovation and our people, higher interest expense from interest rate increases, approximating $450 million, and an adjusted tax rate of approximately 24%, [net-net] to adjusted EPS growth of 2% to 4% in our underlying business operations or an adjusted EPS of $2.83 to $2.88.

讓我們仔細看看幻燈片 32 上調整後每股收益指引的驅動因素。與去年同期相比，我們預計調整後毛利潤的持續改善將被 A&P 和 SG&A 投資增加的影響所抵消，以支持我們的業務創新和我們的員工、加息帶來的利息支出增加（約 4.5 億美元）以及約 24% 的調整後稅率，[淨淨]使我們的基礎業務運營中調整後每股收益增長 2% 至 4%，或調整後每股收益增長 2% 至 4%。每股收益為 2.83 美元至 2.88 美元。

We also expect the growth in our underlying business operations to be offset by lower income from our Ardent Mills joint venture as well as the reduction of pension income due to higher interest rates.

我們還預計，我們的基礎業務運營的增長將被我們合資企業 Ardent Mills 的收入下降以及利率上升導致的養老金收入減少所抵消。

As we previously discussed, Ardent Mills had a particularly strong fiscal '23, driven by favorable market conditions and the venture's effective management through recent volatility in the wheat markets. As we transition toward a more normalized operating environment, we expect lower Ardent Mills income of approximately $150 million in fiscal '24, which is still a very strong operating performance relative to historical results as Ardent continues to mature as a business.

正如我們之前所討論的，Ardent Mills 的 23 財年業績尤其強勁，這得益於有利的市場條件以及該合資企業在近期小麥市場波動中的有效管理。隨著我們向更加規範化的運營環境過渡，我們預計 Ardent Mills 在 24 財年的收入將減少約 1.5 億美元，隨著 Ardent 作為一家企業不斷成熟，相對於歷史業績而言，這仍然是非常強勁的運營業績。

I will now unpack a few additional assumptions behind our guidance, shown here on Slide 33. Again, we expect to see easing inflationary pressures and improved supply chain operations in fiscal '24, which is reflected in our outlook.

現在，我將闡述我們的指導背後的一些額外假設，如幻燈片 33 所示。同樣，我們預計 24 財年通脹壓力將有所緩解，供應鏈運營將得到改善，這也反映在我們的前景中。

We anticipate net cost-of-goods-sold inflation of approximately 3% in fiscal '24 as we continue to emerge from the inflation super cycle with targeted inflation-justified pricing actions that will become effective in the early second quarter of fiscal '24 to help offset elevated costs.

我們預計 24 財年的淨銷售成本通脹率約為 3%，因為我們將繼續擺脫通脹超級週期，並採取有針對性的通脹合理定價行動，這些行動將於 24 財年第二季度初生效幫助抵消增加的成本。

From a supply chain perspective, we expect CapEx spend of approximately $500 million as we continue to make investments to support our growth and productivity priorities, with a focus on capacity expansion and automation.

從供應鏈的角度來看，我們預計資本支出約為 5 億美元，因為我們將繼續進行投資以支持我們的增長和生產力優先事項，重點是產能擴張和自動化。

We also expect the investments we are making to drive gross productivity savings of approximately $300 million during fiscal '24. Finally, we expect to reach a net leverage ratio of approximately 3.4x and by year-end fiscal '24 and remain on track to reach our target net leverage ratio of approximately 3x by the end of fiscal '26.

我們還預計，我們正在進行的投資將在 2024 財年實現總生產率節省約 3 億美元。最後，我們預計到 24 財年末淨槓桿率將達到約 3.4 倍，並有望在 26 財年末達到約 3 倍的淨槓桿率目標。

We see fiscal '24 as a transition toward a more normal operating environment, and we are reiterating our commitment to the long-term financial algorithm we unveiled at our Investor Day in July 2022, as shown here on Slide 34.

我們將 24 財年視為向更正常運營環境的過渡，並且我們重申對我們在 2022 年 7 月投資者日公佈的長期財務算法的承諾，如幻燈片 34 所示。

This morning, we announced that our Board of Directors approved a 6% increase in our annualized dividend from $1.32 a share to $1.40 per share. This increase reflects confidence in our outlook and is in line with the targeted payout ratio.

今天早上，我們宣布董事會批准將年化股息從每股 1.32 美元增加 6% 至每股 1.40 美元。這一增長反映了我們對前景的信心，並且符合目標派息率。

To sum things up, we made outstanding progress in fiscal '23 as we continue to execute on our strategic priorities to drive value for shareholders. We believe Conagra is well positioned for long-term value creation.

總而言之，我們在 23 財年取得了顯著的進展，因為我們繼續執行我們的戰略重點，為股東創造價值。我們相信康尼格拉在創造長期價值方面處於有利地位。

That concludes our prepared remarks for today's call. Thank you for listening. I'll now pass it back to the operator to open the line for questions.

我們為今天的電話會議準備的發言到此結束。感謝您的聆聽。現在我會將其傳回接線員以打開提問線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

So Sean, it sounds like as you've talked about fiscal '24 sort of a transition year of sorts between the anomalous environment of the past few years and a more normal operating environment moving ahead, hopefully. I'm curious, how do we think about the pattern of how fiscal '24 unfolds in terms of volume pivoting back to growth as the benefit from pricing wanes?

肖恩，聽起來就像您談到的 24 財年是過去幾年的異常環境和未來更正常的運營環境之間的過渡年，希望如此。我很好奇，隨著定價收益的減弱，我們如何看待 24 財年銷量轉向增長的模式？

Because there's, clearly, some concern, as you're aware, among investors that there could be a period of sort of negative organic sales if the timing of volume and pricing don't perfectly align. And I realize it's hard to put too fine a point on this, of course. But in light of some of your comments on some recent consumer behavior shifts, I'm curious, how you see the year playing out from an organic sales growth perspective?

因為正如你所知，投資者顯然擔心，如果銷量和定價的時間不完全一致，可能會出現一段時期的有機銷售負值。當然，我意識到很難對此做出過分明確的闡述。但鑑於您對最近一些消費者行為轉變的一些評論，我很好奇，您如何從有機銷售增長的角度看待這一年的發展？

Yes, sure. Andrew, let me start with the big picture here, and then I'll flip it to Dave to give you some more color. First, you're 100% right. It is a transition year back to a more normal macro, and that's probably going to be true of everybody. Second, yes, there will be a settling effect that occurs as the year unfolds. Dollars will come down, obviously, as pricing gets wrapped, and volume trends will improve.

是的，當然。安德魯，讓我從這裡的大局開始，然後我將其翻轉給戴夫，為您提供更多信息。首先，你是100%正確的。今年是宏觀經濟回歸正常的過渡年，這對每個人來說可能都是如此。其次，是的，隨著這一年的展開，將會產生解決效應。顯然，隨著定價的結束，美元將會下跌，並且成交量趨勢將會改善。

Third, as you can imagine, that settling effect is not likely to be exactly linear from month to month. And the simple reason for that is there are time-specific factors at play. So you've got supply chain disruptions in the year-ago period. Of particular months, we've got the shifting consumer behavior dynamic.

第三，正如您可以想像的那樣，這種穩定效果不太可能逐月完全呈線性。原因很簡單，那就是特定時間因素在起作用。所以去年同期供應鏈中斷了。在特定月份，我們看到了消費者行為動態的變化。

So I'd say, given all of this, 1% growth in organic net sales dollars, for us, for the full year is what we expect. That feels prudent, given everything we see. And while we don't guide on volumes, from a shape of the trend standpoint, we do expect trends to improve as the year unfolds.

因此，我想說，考慮到所有這些，對我們來說，全年有機淨銷售額增長 1% 是我們的預期。考慮到我們所看到的一切，這感覺是謹慎的。雖然我們不提供數量指導，但從趨勢的角度來看，我們確實預計趨勢會隨著今年的展開而改善。

And Dave, you can unpack that a little bit more.

戴夫，你可以進一步解釋一下。

Yes. So Andrew, let me -- we gave our guide of approximately 1% organic net sales. So there are a lot of different dynamics that went into landing on the sky. So I just wanted to try to go through kind of the key puts and takes and try to give you some color to help with cadence. We're not going to give exact numbers by quarter, obviously.

是的。安德魯，讓我——我們給出了大約 1% 有機淨銷售額的指導。因此，著陸天空有很多不同的動力。所以我只是想嘗試過一遍關鍵的推桿和推桿，並嘗試給你一些顏色來幫助節奏。顯然，我們不會按季度提供確切的數字。

But -- so the first thing is we will be wrapping on fiscal '23 pricing at the beginning of Q2. So Q1 will deliver stronger price/mix. But after that, it will slow significantly, starting in Q2.

但是，第一件事是我們將在第二季度初確定 23 財年的定價。因此，第一季度將提供更強勁的價格/組合。但此後，從第二季度開始，增速將顯著放緩。

As you know, we had several supply chain disruptions in fiscal '23 with our Jackson plant in canning and then our canned meat recall. The kind of wrap impact on that is mostly in the second half, if you look at this year. We obviously have our strong innovation slate that we showed today, and that starts shipping -- it's already started shipping in Q1.

如您所知，我們在 23 財年的傑克遜罐頭工廠發生了幾次供應鏈中斷，然後是罐頭肉召回。如果你看看今年，這種影響主要發生在下半年。顯然，我們今天展示了強大的創新能力，並且已經開始發貨——它已經在第一季度開始發貨。

As Sean talked about, and we're estimating as far as kind of how we look at the year, a slower rebounding of volumes as pricing starts to wrap, so we do expect volumes to improve as we move through the fiscal year, but we're not going to give a specific guide on full-year volumes.

正如肖恩所說，就我們對這一年的看法而言，隨著定價開始結束，銷量的反彈速度會放緩，因此我們確實預計隨著本財年的推移，銷量會有所改善，但我們我們不會給出全年銷量的具體指南。

There is some deflation in a few pass-through categories. So our edible oils, pork, dairy, that will result in some lower prices on a few of our brands. We will have incremental merchandising and trade with strong ROI, and it's mostly around brands that we were supply constrained in '23 and couldn't promote as much as we want to, which we will do this year.

一些傳遞類別存在一定程度的通貨緊縮。因此，我們的食用油、豬肉、乳製品，這將導致我們的一些品牌的價格降低。我們將進行增量銷售和貿易，並帶來強勁的投資回報率，而且主要圍繞我們在 23 年供應受限的品牌，無法按照我們想要的方式進行推廣，而今年我們將這樣做。

And then just for our International and Foodservice business, we expect fairly consistent growth in those businesses during the year. So hopefully, that gives you some color on how we get to the 1%.

然後就我們的國際和餐飲服務業務而言，我們預計這些業務在這一年中將保持相當穩定的增長。希望這能讓您了解我們如何達到 1%。

Our next question will come from Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的肯·戈德曼。

I wanted to ask just quickly about where your customer inventory levels are today and if that you see any abnormalities there. And part of the reason I'm asking is it seems, even if you add back the 110 basis point impact in Americold, that maybe your shipments in Refrigerated & Frozen were a little bit less than what we saw in terms of measured channel takeaway. So just trying to get a sense of how you see that, looking ahead.

我想快速詢問一下您今天的客戶庫存水平，以及您是否發現任何異常情況。我問這個問題的部分原因是，即使你再加上 Americold 110 個基點的影響，你的冷藏和冷凍部門的出貨量可能比我們在測得的渠道外賣方面看到的要少一些。所以只是想了解一下你如何看待這一點，展望未來。

Yes, Ken, this is Dave. We don't see any significant difference in our customer inventory levels versus where we've been historically. If you look at Refrigerated & Frozen, which is really what you're talking about, for the quarter, our price/mix was [10.4%] and volumes were down [11.5%]. Our consumption was 2.9% for the quarter. So there was about a -- we shipped below consumption by about 400 basis points. We plan to do that, Ken.

是的，肯，這是戴夫。我們沒有看到我們的客戶庫存水平與歷史水平有任何顯著差異。如果你看看冷藏和冷凍，這確實是你所談論的，在本季度，我們的價格/組合為 [10.4%]，銷量下降了 [11.5%]。本季度我們的消費率為 2.9%。因此，我們的出貨量低於消耗量約 400 個基點。我們計劃這樣做，肯。

So we expected shipments to be below consumption in Q4 because we shipped ahead of consumption year-to-date Q3 in Refrigerated & Frozen. So if you look at the full year, we basically ship to consumption, which we normally do. So there were no unusual customer dynamics that drove that. And yes, the Americold situation was a 110 basis point negative impact of volumes for Refrigerated & Frozen for the quarter.

因此，我們預計第四季度的出貨量將低於消費量，因為今年迄今為止第三季度冷藏和冷凍產品的出貨量超過了消費量。因此，如果你看看全年，我們基本上都會運送到消費，這是我們通常所做的。因此，沒有什麼異常的客戶動態推動了這一點。是的，Americold 的情況對本季度冷藏和冷凍銷量產生了 110 個基點的負面影響。

Our next question will come from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的帕梅拉·考夫曼。

Can you talk about the pricing outlook from here? You pointed to some additional inflation in fiscal '24, although it's much more modest compared to the last few years. Do you anticipate taking more pricing in fiscal '24 to offset those increases? And then you mentioned lowering prices in a few key categories. Do you expect having to lower list prices across other product categories as well?

您能在這裡談談定價前景嗎？您指出了 24 財年的一些額外通脹，儘管與過去幾年相比要溫和得多。您是否預計在 24 財年採取更多定價來抵消這些增長？然後您提到降低幾個關鍵類別的價格。您是否預計其他產品類別的標價也必須降低？

Pam, it's Sean. Let me tackle this. And Dave, go in whatever I missed. So big picture in terms of the deflation piece, we're really talking about -- we've got a large portfolio, as you know, significant scope. And not surprisingly, we've got a small number of what you might call pass-through categories that are more single ingredient.

帕姆，我是肖恩。讓我來解決這個問題。戴夫，無論我錯過了什麼，都進去吧。我們真正談論的是通貨緊縮的大局——我們有一個很大的投資組合，正如你所知，範圍很廣。毫不奇怪，我們有一小部分你可能稱之為“傳遞”的類別，它們的成分更為單一。

And some of those have -- are made of ingredients that are actually on the deflationary side. So those are the exceptions that tend to go up or down. And so we're seeing things like oil, dairy, some of the meat products that are coming down during our fiscal year outlook. So that's a piece of it.

其中一些實際上是由通貨緊縮的成分組成的。因此，這些都是傾向於上升或下降的例外情況。因此，我們看到石油、乳製品和一些肉類產品等產品在我們的財年展望中都在下降。這就是其中的一部分。

In terms of the new pricing, yes, overall inflation is still with us. It's -- as Dave covered, it's in the 3% range and -- but we've got some surgical pricing on select categories that we are taking to offset that. But at a company level, it's productivity getting back in the game that really helps us to tackle the continued inflation. We're able to see it come down, but it's still with us, and it is going to cause us to take some surgical pricing in a few businesses early in the year. Dave, anything you want to add to that?

就新定價而言，是的，整體通脹仍然存在。正如 Dave 所說，它在 3% 的範圍內，但我們對某些類別進行了一些手術定價，我們正在採取這些定價來抵消這一影響。但在公司層面，生產力的恢復才真正有助於我們應對持續的通貨膨脹。我們能夠看到它下降，但它仍然伴隨著我們，這將導致我們在今年年初對一些企業進行一些手術定價。戴夫，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I would just add -- just reemphasize, Q1, we will see the pricing wrap from obviously pricing we took in fiscal '23. And then we have communicated to customers, and there will be pricing on our tomato-based products effective early Q2. We're seeing significant tomato inflation in fiscal '24.

我想補充一點——再次強調，第一季度，我們將看到我們在 23 財年採取的明顯定價的定價包裝。然後我們與客戶進行了溝通，我們的番茄產品將在第二季度初開始定價。我們看到 24 財年番茄價格大幅上漲。

Yes. And to your last question, Pam. No, we don't see price rollbacks or price downward adjustments in a broad-based way across the category. That's highly contained to those very-limited, single-ingredient, more pass-through categories in our portfolio.

是的。關於你的最後一個問題，帕姆。不，我們沒有看到整個類別範圍內廣泛的價格回滾或價格下調。這高度包含在我們的投資組合中那些非常有限、單一成分、更多傳遞的類別中。

Great. And just on your guidance for 40 to 90 basis points of operating margin expansion, can you unpack that a bit? What's embedded into that through gross margin expansion versus SG&A reinvestment?

偉大的。僅根據您對營業利潤率擴張 40 至 90 個基點的指導，您能稍微解釋一下嗎？毛利率擴張與 SG&A 再投資相比，其中包含哪些內容？

Sure. So the operating margin improvement we guided to is coming primarily from gross margin improvement. So the A&P and SG&A taken together should approximate the same percentage of net sales as they did in fiscal '23. So the key drivers of the gross margin improvement are the price/mix; the Q1 and then the targeted Q2 pricing I just talked about.

當然。因此，我們指導的營業利潤率改善主要來自毛利率改善。因此，A&P 和 SG&A 合計應與 23 財年的淨銷售額百分比大致相同。因此，毛利率改善的關鍵驅動因素是價格/產品組合；第一季度，然後是我剛才談到的第二季度目標定價。

Productivity of $300 million, which we talked about, we're very pleased with where our productivity programs are right now and then netting against that some negative overhead absorption and business investments. And then I talked about wrapping on some supply chain disruption costs that we had in fiscal '23, that should be a tailwind to margin for fiscal '24. So those are the key drivers, I would say, to get to the guidance.

我們談到了 3 億美元的生產率，我們對我們的生產率計劃目前的狀況非常滿意，然後抵消了一些負面的管理費用吸收和業務投資。然後我談到了我們在 23 財年的一些供應鏈中斷成本，這應該是 24 財年利潤率的推動因素。我想說，這些是獲得指導的關鍵驅動因素。

Our next question will come from David Palmer with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Palmer。

I wanted to ask you a question on frozen and snacks. I mean, obviously, those are key long-term growth categories for Conagra and you've shown some good innovation energy there. It looks like the pipeline is strong. But those categories are not doing that great lately. Those categories have slowed, and you're losing share in some of them.

我想問你一個關於冷凍和零食的問題。我的意思是，顯然，這些是康尼格拉關鍵的長期增長類別，你們在這方面表現出了一些良好的創新活力。看起來管道很強大。但這些類別最近表現不佳。這些類別的增長速度已經放緩，並且您正在失去其中一些類別的份額。

I'm wondering if you could speak to perhaps a few of these, just tell us what your outlook is and what's going on to your best diagnosis frozen entrees, frozen vegetables, maybe popcorn and because obviously, these are going to be key growth categories for you?

我想知道您是否可以談談其中的一些，只需告訴我們您的前景是什麼以及您的最佳診斷情況如何冷凍主菜，冷凍蔬菜，也許是爆米花，因為顯然，這些將成為關鍵的增長類別為你？

David, sure. It's Sean. Our frozen business has been a juggernaut for us for quite some time now. And fiscal '23, overall, as you saw in our presentation today, was another very strong year. Obviously, Q4 had a lot of noise in it with Americold and the broader consumer behavior shifts that I discussed. But we remain super bullish on the future of this space. And we have lofty long-term objectives that we plan to deliver through a number of tools in our playbook.

大衛，當然。是肖恩。一段時間以來，我們的冷凍業務一直是我們的主宰業務。總體而言，正如您在今天的演示中看到的那樣，23 財年又是非常強勁的一年。顯然，第四季度與 Americold 以及我討論的更廣泛的消費者行為轉變產生了很多噪音。但我們仍然非常看好這個領域的未來。我們有遠大的長期目標，計劃通過我們的行動手冊中的許多工具來實現這些目標。

With respect to shares, overall, we've been very pleased with our share performance over the long term, which you saw earlier. Obviously, supply chain disruptions in certain categories we experienced made share gains more challenging in short-term windows, but we feel good overall. And in categories like vegetables, keep in mind, as we discussed at CAGNY, we are focused there on the premiumization of the category, not on low tier, more commodity vegetables.

就股票而言，總體而言，我們對股票的長期表現非常滿意，正如您之前看到的那樣。顯然，我們經歷的某些類別的供應鏈中斷使得短期內的份額增長更具挑戰性，但我們總體感覺良好。在蔬菜等類別中，請記住，正如我們在 CAGNY 討論的那樣，我們專注於該類別的高端化，而不是低端、商品化的蔬菜。

So there is an element of value over volume strategy that remains central to our Birds Eye playbook there as we continue to drive premiumization and really more of a finished, prepared vegetable product than a bag of commodity vegetables.

因此，隨著我們繼續推動高端化，實際上更多的是成品蔬菜產品，而不是一袋商品蔬菜，價值大於數量策略的要素仍然是我們鳥眼策略的核心。

And then with respect to pick a snack or just about any other category across mainstream kind of food industry right now, there has been some slowing down where we would have expected volume trends to be up a bit and really see volume improvement more in sync with the dollar decline. So that softness, as I mentioned, does point to a bit of a consumer behavior shift.

然後，就選擇零食或目前主流食品行業的任何其他類別而言，已經出現了一些放緩，我們預計銷量趨勢會有所上升，並且確實看到銷量的增長與美元下跌。因此，正如我提到的，這種疲軟確實表明消費者行為發生了一些轉變。

And the data we can see is very interesting in what it does point to, and that is it's not materially related to private-label trade down or something like SNAP. Rather, it is more of a multi-category slowdown that appears to be tied to shift in consumer behavior aimed at stretching their budgets likely to cover other expenditures like travel, things like that.

我們看到的數據非常有趣，它所指向的內容是，它與自有品牌貿易下降或 SNAP 之類的東西沒有實質性關係。相反，這更像是多類別的放緩，似乎與消費者行為的轉變有關，消費者的行為旨在擴大預算，以支付旅行等其他支出。

And again, that's likely a short-term phenomenon, but we do have that factored into our outlook as we go forward. We're going to invest to keep our brands, including popcorn and other snacks and frozen, on top of mind with consumers.

再說一遍，這可能是一種短期現象，但我們在前進時確實將其納入我們的前景中。我們將進行投資，讓我們的品牌（包括爆米花和其他零食以及冷凍食品）成為消費者心目中的首選。

Our next question will come from Cody Ross with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的科迪·羅斯。

I just want to follow up real quick on the Americold disruption, thank you for the color there. Do you expect to recover those sales in fiscal '24? If so, can you detail when? And I'll stop and pause for a second before my next one.

我只想快速跟進 Americold 的中斷情況，謝謝你的顏色。您預計 24 財年的銷售額會恢復嗎？如果有的話，能詳細說明一下什麼時候嗎？在下一個任務之前我會停下來停頓一下。

Yes. Cody, it's Dave. So in that situation, obviously, we were disrupted on shipments. So we were backed up and had to catch up during the month of May. So anything that didn't get out, which we quantified for Q4, would just flip into Q1. So it's just shipments that we didn't ultimately get out the door. So that's that.

是的。科迪，我是戴夫。因此，在這種情況下，顯然我們的發貨受到了乾擾。所以我們有後援，必須在五月份趕上。因此，我們在第四季度量化的任何未釋放的內容都會轉入第一季度。所以我們最終沒有發貨的只是貨物。就是這樣。

Just regarding that, Cody, is that we probably were out of stock in some stores when we couldn't ship for a while. So I'm sure if the consumer was looking to buy one of our products, they couldn't and they needed to make some purchase that in that shopping trip, they grab something else. We're probably not going to get that back. But at this point, that consumption loss is water under the bridge.

科迪，就這一點而言，當我們有一段時間無法發貨時，我們可能在某些商店缺貨了。所以我確信，如果消費者想要購買我們的一種產品，他們不能，他們需要購買一些東西，但在那次購物之旅中，他們會買其他東西。我們可能不會再拿回來了。但在這一點上，消耗損失已成為過橋之事。

Understood. And then just [tangential] to that before I ask my next question, is it fair to assume that 1Q would be the high watermark for organic sales for the year just because of the shipments going from 4Q into 1Q and also the wrap around price that you detailed for 1Q?

明白了。然後，在我問下一個問題之前，與此無關的是，僅僅因為從第四季度到第一季度的出貨量以及圍繞價格你詳細介紹了第一季度嗎？

We don't guide by quarter, Cody, but we -- as I mentioned, Q1, we still will have the big impact from price/mix.

科迪，我們不會按季度進行指導，但正如我提到的，第一季度，我們仍然會受到價格/組合的巨大影響。

Understood. And then just real quickly, I want to pivot to Ardent Mills. It continues to perform better than we expected. You guided JV income of $150 million for the year. And on prior calls, I think you guys noted the contribution was north of $80 million prior to the spike in wheat prices. How much visibility do you have at this point to the $150 million? And what does that assume for wheat prices?

明白了。然後很快我就想轉向 Ardent Mills。它的表現繼續好於我們的預期。您指導合資公司今年的收入為 1.5 億美元。在之前的電話會議中，我想你們注意到，在小麥價格飆升之前，捐款已超過 8000 萬美元。目前您對 1.5 億美元的知名度有多少？這對小麥價格有何假設？

Yes, we have a lot of visibility, and you can assume that we have been through the details with Ardent. We review the business with them very closely. The level of profit we're guiding to is pretty consistent with where the business came in, in fiscal '22. And right? So it's at that similar level.

是的，我們有很多可見性，您可以假設我們已經與 Ardent 討論了細節。我們非常仔細地與他們審查業務。我們指導的利潤水平與 22 財年的業務收入非常一致。對嗎？所以它處於相似的水平。

The thing that I've really come to appreciate personally is it's such a great business. It's a young business. It's only 10 years old. They've made investments in the business and they continue to grow. So their core business continues to do really well, and then they have a trading aspect of the business, too. So it's a business that's growing. It has a lot of competitive advantage in it. And so we're really bullish on the business. It's a really great business.

我個人真正欣賞的是這是一項非常棒的業務。這是一個年輕的企業。它才10歲。他們對業務進行了投資，並且不斷發展。因此，他們的核心業務繼續表現出色，而且他們也有貿易方面的業務。所以這是一項正在增長的業務。它有很多競爭優勢在裡面。所以我們非常看好這項業務。這真是一項偉大的事業。

Our next question will come from Max Gumport with BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題將來自法國巴黎銀行的 Max Gumport。

With regard to the shift in consumer behaviors that you called out, I'm curious if there's any commonalities that the impacted categories share? And then, what data points you're seeing that suggest to you it's short term in nature?

關於您提到的消費者行為的轉變，我很好奇受影響的類別是否有任何共同點？然後，您看到的哪些數據點表明這本質上是短期的？

Well, when we look at this, Max, we pull the data across the entire food space by category, just to see if -- as dollars roll off and individual categories wrap price, you see that in-sync improvement in volume trends. And you're really not seeing it.

好吧，當我們看到這個時，麥克斯，我們按類別提取整個食品領域的數據，只是為了看看 - 隨著美元下跌和各個類別的價格上漲，您是否會看到數量趨勢的同步改善。而你真的沒有看到它。

Even if you look at the scanner data that just came out for the period ending 7/1, you see Conagra and our 5 [nearing] peers are basically in the exact same place in terms of unit performance change versus a year ago. And we're probably all better served by looking at the unit volume change versus 2 years ago to get the noise out of the base period last summer.

即使您查看 7 月 1 日結束期間剛剛發布的掃描儀數據，您也會發現康尼格拉和我們的 5 個[接近]同行在單位性能變化方面與一年前基本處於完全相同的位置。通過觀察單位成交量與兩年前相比的變化，我們可能會得到更好的幫助，以消除去年夏天基期的噪音。

And when you do that, it's really kind of uncanny everybody's volume is at an extremely tight band of down just over 6% in the last several periods. And as I pointed out, what we don't see is much of a difference in terms of that volume change versus a year ago between the 13-week data and the past 4-week data.

當你這樣做時，你會發現過去幾個時期每個人的交易量都處於一個極其狹窄的下降區間，僅下降了 6% 以上，這確實有點不可思議。正如我所指出的，我們沒有看到 13 週數據和過去 4 週數據之間的交易量變化與一年前相比有多大差異。

And that's where I think people would have modeled in us,, included a bit of an improvement in that trend from 13 years -- week to 4 weeks because when you roll off a price and you wrap the initial volume elasticity effect, you should see an improvement there.

這就是我認為人們會在我們身上進行建模的地方，包括該趨勢從 13 年一周到 4 週的一些改進，因為當你降低價格並考慮初始成交量彈性效應時，你應該看到那裡有進步。

And that is exactly what I was pointing to when I talked about the shift in consumer behavior. And in terms of what's behind it exactly, I think everybody is trying to figure it out. A lot of the data, to answer that question, is on a lagging basis, whether it's diary data or panel data or things like that. And so we're studying it carefully. Importantly, it's not a trade down within individual categories to lower-priced alternatives. It looks optically more like a cutting back and what I call the hunkering down.

這正是我在談論消費者行為轉變時所指的內容。至於其背後到底是什麼，我想每個人都在試圖弄清楚。為了回答這個問題，很多數據都是滯後的，無論是日記數據還是面板數據或類似數據。所以我們正在仔細研究它。重要的是，這並不是在個別類別內向價格較低的替代品進行交易。從視覺上看，它更像是一種削減，我稱之為蹲守。

And one thing I know for sure, people aren't eating less. So it's -- they're making choices to manage their budget. As I suggested, likely to cover other expenses, and it's just hard to imagine how that continues for an extended period of time unless people start eating less, which I haven't seen happen.

我確信的一件事是，人們的飲食並沒有減少。所以他們正在做出選擇來管理他們的預算。正如我所建議的，可能會支付其他費用，而且很難想像這種情況如何持續很長一段時間，除非人們開始減少飲食，而我還沒有看到這種情況發生。

Our next question will come from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Jason English。

Good morning, folks. Thanks for slotting me in. We turned a lot of ground already. Oh, and congrats, by the way, on a great year. You mentioned a few brands that were supply constrained, and your intention is to meet this with more targeted promotions now that the constraints are being lifted. What are those brands? And would you expect that promotional intensity to be enough to drive their net pricing deflationary?

早上好，伙計們。感謝您讓我加入。我們已經取得了很大進展。哦，順便說一句，恭喜你，度過了美好的一年。您提到了一些供應受到限制的品牌，隨著限制的解除，您的目的是通過更有針對性的促銷活動來滿足這一需求。這些品牌是什麼？您是否認為促銷力度足以推動他們的淨定價通貨緊縮？

Yes. Let me give you just -- without kind of tipping our hand on what we want to do competitively. This is always a hot topic, is what's the promotional environment, how is it going to change. In the simplest sense, Jason, we are okay with category-building promotions that have a positive ROI. And I expect you will see more of those, now that supply chains are servicing above 95%.

是的。讓我簡單地告訴你——而不是透露我們想要做的有競爭力的事情。這一直是一個熱門話題，就是促銷環境是什麼樣的，會如何變化。從最簡單的意義上來說，傑森，我們對具有積極投資回報率的品類建設促銷活動沒有意見。我預計您會看到更多這樣的情況，因為供應鏈的服務率已超過 95%。

Again, as I've mentioned in the past, for Conagra, we like certain holiday promotions because there is an incremental opportunity to drive volume there. And we haven't really been at full speed on some of those.

再次，正如我過去提到的，對於康尼格拉來說，我們喜歡某些節日促銷活動，因為那裡有增加銷量的機會。我們還沒有真正全速完成其中一些任務。

So the most recent example was in the Lenten season, where we usually do some very high-ROI fish promotion because you sell a lot of fish on promotion during the Lenten season. We didn't do that last year because we had a fire on our fish line.

最近的例子是在四旬齋季節，我們通常會進行一些投資回報率非常高的魚類促銷活動，因為在四旬齋季節期間，您會通過促銷出售大量魚。去年我們沒有這樣做，因為我們的魚線著火了。

So that's an example of the kind of thing we can do more of and even some holiday-type things with Birds Eye, where demand was -- had been very constrained because of the supply chain issues previously.

這是我們可以通過 Birds Eye 做更多事情甚至一些假期類型的事情的一個例子，由於之前的供應鏈問題，需求一直非常有限。

So you're going to see competitors do more on that. And frankly, that's a good thing. And I think investors should think it's a good thing because it's going to help drive healthy-quality category volume.

所以你會看到競爭對手在這方面做得更多。坦率地說，這是一件好事。我認為投資者應該認為這是一件好事，因為它將有助於推動健康品質類別的銷量。

Now conversely, what we're not big fans of is deep discount, low-ROI promotions that train the shopper to buy on deal. Conagra had a period of its history where it did plenty of that stuff. We drained the swamp on all of that over the last 8 years, and we kind of got off that. We're one of the least promoted categories companies in this space.

現在相反，我們不太喜歡那些訓練購物者以優惠價格購買的大幅折扣、低投資回報率的促銷活動。康尼格拉公司在其歷史上曾做過很多類似的事情。在過去的八年裡，我們排乾了所有這些沼澤，我們終於擺脫了困境。我們是該領域推廣最少的類別公司之一。

And the reason for that is simple. It's not how you grow categories. You grow categories with great innovation and quality display. To David Palmer's point on frozen, just look at frozen, from what it did for years when that was the playbook, it didn't do anything. And then when we changed the playbook around innovation and marketing support, we drove real high-quality category growth and dollar realization.

原因很簡單。這不是你發展類別的方式。您可以通過出色的創新和高質量的展示來拓展類別。對於大衛·帕爾默（David Palmer）關於《冰雪奇緣》的觀點，只要看看《冰雪奇緣》，從它作為劇本時多年來所做的事情來看，它沒有做任何事情。然後，當我們圍繞創新和營銷支持改變策略時，我們推動了真正的高質量類別增長和美元變現。

So we don't like those kinds of promotions. But in the current environment with the consumer that is cutting back and making other choices, we probably are more likely to see some players resort to hotter deals to stimulate units. We have not seen a lot of that to date. So that's a good sign. But this isn't our first rodeo, we wouldn't be surprised to see that again. So we monitor that carefully. And really, the only competitive detail I'll say is we'll do what's best for our business.

所以我們不喜歡這類促銷活動。但在當前環境下，消費者正在削減開支並做出其他選擇，我們可能更有可能看到一些玩家訴諸更熱門的交易來刺激銷量。迄今為止我們還沒有看到很多這樣的情況。所以這是一個好兆頭。但這不是我們的第一次牛仔競技表演，如果再次看到這種情況我們也不會感到驚訝。所以我們會仔細監控。事實上，我要說的唯一競爭細節是我們會做對我們的業務最有利的事情。

For sure. Understood. And I'm going to come back to Mr. Ross's question. I know you don't give quarterly guidance, but to his point, you're carrying in inventory rebuild in the first quarter. You've got wraparound pricing. Ardent Mills still has momentum. You've got a really easy gross margin comp. It looks like you're set up for another really solid first quarter.

一定。明白了。我要回到羅斯先生的問題。我知道您沒有提供季度指導，但就他的觀點而言，您將在第一季度進行庫存重建。你有環繞定價。 Ardent Mills 仍然有動力。你有一個非常簡單的毛利率比較。看起來你已經為另一個非常穩定的第一季度做好了準備。

And in context of that and the full-year guide, it would seem to suggest that you're expecting top and bottom line declines throughout the remainder of the year. Is there anything flawed with that thought process?

考慮到這一點和全年指南，這似乎表明您預計今年剩餘時間內的收入和利潤都會下降。這個思維過程有什麼缺陷嗎？

I think that, Jason, the simplest way I think you can think about the year and the cadence and flow that I hinted at before is you got dollars and you got volumes. And this year, they ought to move in different directions, right, because we're wrapping the pricing. And so you're just going to see -- yes, you're going to have stronger dollars early as pricing carryover is in there, and then that will soften. And then as you wrap that, volume trends should improve.

我認為，傑森，我認為你可以思考我之前暗示的這一年以及節奏和流程的最簡單方式就是你有美元和數量。今年，他們應該朝不同的方向發展，對吧，因為我們正在定價。所以你會看到——是的，隨著定價結轉的出現，美元會儘早走強，然後就會軟化。然後當你總結這一點時，成交量趨勢應該會有所改善。

We're not going to guide by quarter for a variety of reasons, one is we don't ever do that. The other is, as I mentioned to Andrew, it's not going to be linear in terms of month-to-month, quarter-to-quarter in terms of how this thing flows.

出於多種原因，我們不會按季度提供指導，其中之一是我們從來不這樣做。另一個是，正如我向安德魯提到的，就這件事的流動而言，就每月、每季度而言，它不會是線性的。

I know everybody would like it to be that way, but it wasn't a linear in the base period when a lot of these factors that we were going to wrap occurred. And we've got to get through the settling effect and continue to drive this business for the long term, and that's what we'll do.

我知道每個人都希望如此，但在我們要解決的許多因素發生的基期，它並不是線性的。我們必須克服解決效應，繼續長期推動這項業務，這就是我們要做的。

Our next question will come from Peter Galbo with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的彼得·加爾博。

Dave, I was just trying to do a little bit of back-of-the-envelope math just on the dividend increase and the leverage target. Just -- can you help us out with free cash flow for this year? I know you have a CapEx guide, but just -- it would seem like you'd land a little bit below that $1.2 billion, but I just wanted to confirm that.

戴夫，我只是想對股息增加和槓桿目標進行一些粗略的數學計算。只是——你能幫助我們解決今年的自由現金流問題嗎？我知道你們有資本支出指南，但看起來你們的投資額會略低於 12 億美元，但我只是想確認這一點。

Sure. So if you look at fiscal '23 -- really '22 and '23, we made significant investments in working capital. So our free cash flow did not convert to being able to pay down debt like we wanted to. But the good news is, as we end fiscal '23, we're in great shape with our inventories, we are at high service levels. We have the inventory that we need.

當然。因此，如果你看看 23 財年——實際上是 22 財年和 23 財年，我們在營運資本方面進行了大量投資。因此，我們的自由現金流並沒有轉化為能夠像我們想要的那樣償還債務。但好消息是，隨著 23 財年結束，我們的庫存狀況良好，服務水平很高。我們有我們需要的庫存。

So as we look at fiscal '24, we guided to expected net leverage of 3.4x. We expect to pay down debt with discretionary cash flow in fiscal '24. And in '24, where working capital has been a headwind, we expect it to actually be a slight tailwind for fiscal '24.

因此，當我們審視 24 財年時，我們預計淨槓桿率為 3.4 倍。我們預計在 24 財年通過可自由支配的現金流來償還債務。在 24 年，營運資本一直是一個逆風，我們預計它實際上對 24 財年來說是一個輕微的順風。

So if you look at Conagra with modest working capital improvement, $500 million in CapEx, which we guided to, we should approximate a 90% free cash flow conversion in '24 on this business. So that's how we look at it, and that drives all the assumptions on debt paydown and dividend payout and everything else on the capital allocation.

因此，如果你看看康尼格拉公司的營運資本略有改善，我們指導的資本支出為 5 億美元，那麼我們應該在 24 年該業務的自由現金流轉換率接近 90%。這就是我們看待它的方式，這推動了所有關於債務償還和股息支付以及資本配置的其他一切的假設。

Our next question will come from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫·鮑爾斯。

Just a couple of -- you talked about some of these items already, but just a couple of elaborations on how to think about 24 from a couple of perspectives on the top line. Number one, as we think about the wraparound pricing net of those pockets of deflationary correction, is there a way to quantify what that kind of net wraparound pricing is on a full-year basis, number one?

您已經討論了其中一些項目，但僅就如何從頂線的幾個角度思考 24 進行了一些闡述。第一，當我們考慮扣除通貨緊縮修正的總體定價後，有沒有辦法量化全年的淨總體定價？

Number two, as you catch up on sort of supply chain disruptions in the aggregate over the years, is that the way to quantify kind of what you're assuming in terms of that benefit for '24?

第二，當你了解多年來供應鏈總體中斷的情況時，這是否是量化你所假設的“24 小時效益”的方法？

And then lastly, on the shift in consumer behavior, the hunkering down, you talked about that as transitory and temporary, and I think that's clear. The question I have is, are you assuming that it's temporary and transitory within the year, so i.e., there is improvement as we go forward? Or are you assuming that the hunkering down that we're seeing of late is with you for the duration of '24 and the improvement really comes in '25 and beyond?

最後，關於消費者行為的轉變，即蹲守，你談到這是暫時的和暫時的，我認為這是明確的。我的問題是，你是否認為這在一年內是暫時的、暫時的，也就是說，隨著我們的前進，會有進步？或者你是否認為我們最近看到的這種停滯狀態會持續到 24 年，而真正的改善會在 25 年及以後出現？

Steve, it's Sean. I'll start with the end and flip it back to Dave for the beginning part. So yes, what I was getting at is because our diagnostic, without perfect information, looks at some of this multi-category, multi-company kind of softness, our conclusion is it likely is transitory. Our outlook and our guide assumes some of those headwinds really in the first half of the year, call it earlier in the year, and assumes that, that will revert to more normal type of behaviors as consumers adjust.

史蒂夫，我是肖恩。我將從結尾開始，然後將其翻轉給戴夫以開始部分。所以，是的，我的意思是，因為我們的診斷在沒有完美信息的情況下，著眼於這種多類別、多公司的軟性，我們的結論是它可能是暫時的。我們的展望和指南假設其中一些逆風確實出現在今年上半年，稱之為今年早些時候，並假設隨著消費者的調整，這將恢復為更正常的行為類型。

In fact, who knows. There are some people that are speculating that there's a summertime phenomenon as you get back to school and people are getting back in the groove, it changes. We're not that precise in terms of trying to peg it to a day or a month.

事實上，誰知道呢。有些人猜測，當你回到學校時，會出現夏季現象，人們會回到最佳狀態，情況會發生變化。我們並沒有那麼精確地將其與一天或一個月掛鉤。

But just to give you some color directionally on how we're thinking about it, yes, we suspect it's going to quickly go back to kind of what it normally is, exactly when, we don't know, but we've baked in some conservatism there in the front part of the year. David, over to you.

但只是為了給你一些關於我們如何思考它的方向性的信息，是的，我們懷疑它會很快回到正常狀態，具體是什麼時候，我們不知道，但我們已經適應了今年上半年存在一些保守主義情緒。大衛，交給你了。

Yes, Steve, I would just say, I know there's just such a burning desire for everybody to get quarterly information, but we're just not going to do that. I think in my answer to Andrew's question, I really tried to go through pretty methodically kind of color around the guidance and some of the cadence items with the disruptions and kind of wrapping on pricing and everything else. So I feel like there's enough there to put together a pretty good estimate.

是的，史蒂夫，我只想說，我知道每個人都迫切希望獲得季度信息，但我們不會這樣做。我認為在回答安德魯的問題時，我確實嘗試過相當有條理地圍繞指導和一些節奏項目進行了相當有條理的色彩處理，並對定價和其他所有內容進行了乾擾和包裝。所以我覺得有足夠的信息可以做出一個很好的估計。

Yes. On the second part, Dave, I'm actually less focused on the cadence and more just thinking about it in the aggregate. On an annualized basis, just kind of what benefit, if any, you've baked in for supply chain disruption catch-up, number one? And then, what that kind of net wraparound pricing is when you do the -- we know what pricing you took last year, and then I want to -- just trying to quantify what that is net of the deflationary givebacks on an annualized basis.

是的。在第二部分中，戴夫，我實際上不太關注節奏，而更多地只是從總體上考慮它。按年計算，您為追趕供應鏈中斷而帶來的好處（如果有的話）是什麼？第一？然後，當你這樣做時，這種淨環繞定價是什麼——我們知道你去年採取的定價，然後我想——只是試圖量化按年計算的通貨緊縮回饋的淨值。

Yes. And I want to get into that because then you get into -- then you figure out volumes. And we just don't -- given the dynamics that Sean talked through, we just don't want to get into getting very precise with exact volume and kind of the net impact on pricing. So I think you know the drivers. You know the outcome that [we're] guiding to. So we'll keep it there.

是的。我想深入探討這一點，因為然後你就會了解——然後你就會計算出數量。我們只是不這樣做——考慮到肖恩談到的動態，我們只是不想非常精確地了解確切的數量和對定價的淨影響。所以我認為你了解司機。你知道我們正在引導的結果。所以我們會把它留在那裡。

Our next question is from Brian Callen with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Brian Callen。

Peter actually asked part of my working capital questions. That was helpful. I guess a follow-on to that is just thinking longer term about deleveraging and the 3x by the end of fiscal '26, that's probably a year behind what we thought. Is there anything that you see now impacting free cash flow conversion or maybe how you'll need to manage the maturity paydown that sort of takes you a little bit longer to get to 3x?

彼得實際上問了我部分營運資金的問題。這很有幫助。我猜想，接下來的事情就是從長遠考慮去槓桿化，並在 26 財年末實現 3 倍的目標，這可能比我們想像的晚了一年。您現在看到有什麼因素會影響自由現金流轉換嗎？或者您可能需要如何管理到期還款（需要更長的時間才能達到 3 倍）？

Yes. No. I -- first of all, we put that out there. This is the first time we've actually put a date on the 3.0. No, we don't see anything material that should impact free cash flow. I tried to give some good color on kind of how we're seeing '24. Paying down debt is our priority. So I will be crystal clear on that.

是的。不，我——首先，我們把它放在那裡。這是我們第一次真正確定 3.0 的發布日期。不，我們沒有看到任何影響自由現金流的重大因素。我試圖為我們如何看待“24”提供一些好的色彩。償還債務是我們的首要任務。所以我會非常清楚這一點。

Given where interest rates are, we're about -- 88% of our debt is fixed, so we still have that 12% that's variable. And obviously, with interest rates going up, it's pushing 6% on the cost of that debt. So paying that down is going to have a real cash, financial benefit to us. So we're very motivated to generate the discretionary cash flow and pay down debt. That's our priority for '24 and really beyond.

考慮到利率水平，我們大約 88% 的債務是固定的，所以我們還有 12% 的債務是可變的。顯然，隨著利率上升，債務成本將上升 6%。因此，付清這筆錢將為我們帶來真正的現金和經濟利益。因此，我們非常有動力產生可自由支配的現金流並償還債務。這是我們 24 年及以後的首要任務。

And then, is there anything on the working capital side from an inventory management perspective, I guess, that's the key source of the slight tailwind you mentioned? Is there anything we should be thinking about with pacing of working capital through the year, just as an extension on the working capital comment before?

然後，從庫存管理的角度來看，營運資金方面是否有什麼，我想，這是你提到的輕微順風的關鍵來源？作為之前營運資本評論的延伸，我們是否應該考慮全年營運資本的節奏？

So generally, we finished '23 at the days on hand that we're very comfortable with, but we do have a seasonality to the business, too, right? So when you look at the flow, we usually build inventory as we go through our first quarter into our second quarter. So during the course of the year, you'll see sort of an inventory build, working capital build, and then it comes back as the year progresses. But that's our normal seasonality for Conagra.

所以一般來說，我們在我們感到非常舒服的日子裡結束了 23 年，但我們的業務也確實有季節性，對嗎？因此，當您查看流程時，我們通常會在第一季度進入第二季度時建立庫存。因此，在這一年中，您會看到庫存增加、營運資金增加，然後隨著時間的推移，它會回來。但這是康尼格拉的正常季節性。

And our last question today will come from Matt Smith with Stifel.

今天我們的最後一個問題將由馬特·史密斯和斯蒂菲爾提出。

Wanted to ask a follow-up question on elasticities. I know that in the fourth quarter, your elasticities, overall, were in line with peers and below the historical level, but part of the consumer softening that we've seen has led to softer elasticities, overall, for Conagra and the total store. And more fiscally, Conagra's elasticity relative to peers has weakened and moved more towards the historical 1:1 level.

想問一個關於彈性的後續問題。我知道，在第四季度，總體彈性與同行一致，低於歷史水平，但我們看到的部分消費者疲軟導致康尼格拉和整個商店的彈性總體疲軟。從財務角度來看，康尼格拉相對於同行的彈性已經減弱，並更加接近歷史 1:1 的水平。

So when we think about the first half of the year and some of the comments you've answered to other questions, is that more in line with how you're thinking about guidance elasticity is holding near what we've seen more recently? Or was some of the Americold and other disruptions in the fourth quarter impacting the current trends?

因此，當我們思考今年上半年以及您回答其他問題的一些評論時，這是否更符合您對指導彈性接近我們最近看到的水平的看法？或者第四季度的一些 Americold 和其他中斷是否影響了當前的趨勢？

No, I think you're looking at what you're calling elasticity is in far too simplistic a manner. You can't calculate an elasticity by looking at total volume change, looking at total price change and saying that's your elasticity because there are many factors that go into what happens with volumes.

不，我認為你對所謂的彈性的看法過於簡單化了。你不能通過查看總成交量變化、總價格變化並說這就是你的彈性來計算彈性，因為影響成交量的因素有很多。

So not to get too technical here, but elasticity analytics measure a consumer demand response to a change in pricing at a brand level and in a time period following that pricing action. And those analyses have consistently, including recently, shown consumer response to brand-level pricing actions has been benign compared to historical norms.

因此，這裡不要太技術化，而是彈性分析衡量消費者需求對品牌層面的定價變化以及定價行為之後的一段時間內的反應。這些分析一致表明，包括最近的分析，與歷史常態相比，消費者對品牌層面定價行為的反應是良性的。

That remains true for Conagra. It remains true for our peer set. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, our elasticities, they softened a little in Q4, but they remain benign versus historical norms, and they are directionally ahead of the peer groups.

對於康尼格拉來說也是如此。對於我們的同齡人來說也是如此。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，我們的彈性在第四季度略有減弱，但與歷史正常水平相比仍然是良性的，並且在方向上領先於同行。

The behavior shift I referenced, are a bit of a different animal. It's not a consumer response to a particular brand's pricing action, rather it is a set of coping tactics, more broadly, to the overall higher cost environment. These tactics include things like just buying less for a period of time, the stuff I talked about there.

我提到的行為轉變是一種有點不同的動物。這不是消費者對特定品牌定價行為的反應，而是更廣泛地說，針對整體較高成本環境的一套應對策略。這些策略包括在一段時間內減少購買，我在那裡談到的東西。

So you may look at that and say, "Well, the net of them both is that volumes are lower." That's true. But if you really want to get into analytically really, what consumers are judging the value of a specific brand and product, you got to get into the more granular analytics, whole science. And if you want to understand just the more macro consumer attitude and how they're coping with the cumulative effect of higher prices, that is you're going to get to different conclusions.

因此，您可能會看到這一點並說：“好吧，兩者的最終結果是成交量較低。”這是真的。但如果你真的想真正進行分析，了解消費者如何判斷特定品牌和產品的價值，你就必須進入更精細的分析，整個科學。如果您想了解更宏觀的消費者態度以及他們如何應對價格上漲的累積效應，那麼您將得出不同的結論。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Melissa Napier for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給梅麗莎·納皮爾（Melissa Napier）做總結髮言。

Thank you for joining us this morning. Investor Relations is happy to address any follow-up questions that you may have. And we hope everyone has a wonderful day.

感謝您今天早上加入我們。投資者關係部很樂意解答您可能遇到的任何後續問題。我們希望每個人都有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you very much for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

會議現已結束。非常感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路。