博通 (AVGO) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Broadcom Inc.'s Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Financial Results Conference Call.

歡迎參加 Broadcom Inc. 2023 財年第三季度財務業績電話會議。

At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Ji Yoo, Head of Investor Relations of Broadcom Inc.

現在，我想將電話轉給 Broadcom Inc. 投資者關係主管 Ji Yoo 進行開場發言和介紹。

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me on today's call are Hock Tan, President and CEO; Kirsten Spears, Chief Financial Officer; and Charlie Kawwas, President Semiconductor Solutions Group.

謝謝接線員，大家下午好。與我一起參加今天電話會議的還有總裁兼首席執行官 Hock Tan；克爾斯滕·斯皮爾斯，首席財務官；以及半導體解決方案集團總裁 Charlie Kawwas。

Broadcom distributed a press release and financial tables after the market closed, describing our financial performance for the third quarter fiscal year 2023. If you did not receive a copy, you may obtain the information from the Investors section of Broadcom's website at broadcom.com. This conference call is being webcast live and an audio replay of the call can be accessed for 1 year through the Investors section of Broadcom's website.

Broadcom 在收盤後分發了一份新聞稿和財務表格，描述了我們 2023 財年第三季度的財務業績。如果您沒有收到副本，您可以從 Broadcom 網站 Broadcom.com 的投資者部分獲取信息。本次電話會議正在進行網絡直播，並且可以通過 Broadcom 網站的投資者部分獲取為期一年的電話會議音頻重播。

During the prepared comments, Hock and Kirsten will be providing details of our third quarter fiscal year 2023 results, guidance for our fourth quarter as well as commentary regarding the business environment. We'll take questions after the end of our prepared comments. Please refer to our press release today and our recent filings with the SEC for information on the specific risk factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements made on this call.

在準備評論期間，Hock 和 Kirsten 將提供 2023 財年第三季度業績的詳細信息、第四季度的指導以及有關商業環境的評論。我們將在準備好的評論結束後回答問題。請參閱我們今天的新聞稿以及我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，了解可能導致我們的實際結果與本次電話會議中所做的前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的具體風險因素的信息。

In addition to U.S. GAAP reporting, Broadcom reports certain financial measures on a non-GAAP basis. A reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures is included in the tables attached to today's press release. Comments made during today's call will primarily refer to our non-GAAP financial results.

除了美國公認會計原則報告外，博通還根據非公認會計原則報告某些財務指標。今天新聞稿所附的表格中包含了公認會計原則和非公認會計原則措施之間的調節。今天電話會議期間發表的評論將主要涉及我們的非公認會計準則財務業績。

I'll now turn the call over to Hock.

我現在將把電話轉給霍克。

Thank you, Ji. And thank you, everyone, for joining us today. In our fiscal Q3, 2023 consolidated net revenue, which is $8.9 billion, up 5% year-on-year. Semiconductor solutions revenue increased 5% year-on-year to $6.9 billion, and infrastructure software grew 5% year-on-year to $1.9 billion. Hyperscale continued to grow double digits year-on-year, but enterprise and telco spending moderated.

謝謝你，吉。感謝大家今天加入我們。 2023 年第三財季的合併淨收入為 89 億美元，同比增長 5%。半導體解決方案收入同比增長5%，達到69億美元，基礎設施軟件收入同比增長5%，達到19億美元。超大規模業務繼續同比增長兩位數，但企業和電信支出放緩。

Meanwhile, virtually defined gravity our wireless business has remained stable. Now generative AI investments are driving the continued strength in hyperscale spending for us. As you know, we supply a major hyperscale customer with custom AI compute engines. We are also supplying several hyperscalers, a portfolio of networking technologies as they scale up and scale out their AI clusters within their data centers, now representing over $1 billion. This represented virtually all the growth in our infrastructure business in Q3 this year-on-year.

與此同時，我們的無線業務幾乎保持穩定。現在，生成式人工智能投資正在推動我們超大規模支出的持續增長。如您所知，我們為主要的超大規模客戶提供定制人工智能計算引擎。我們還為多個超大規模企業提供網絡技術組合，幫助他們在數據中心內擴展和擴展 AI 集群，目前價值超過 10 億美元。這幾乎代表了我們今年第三季度基礎設施業務同比增長的全部。

So without the benefit of generative AI revenue in Q3, our semiconductor business was approximately flat year-on-year. In fact, since the start of the year -- the fiscal year, our quarterly semiconductor revenue, excluding AI, has stabilized at around $6 billion. And as we had indicated to you a year ago, we expected a soft landing during fiscal '23, and it appears this is exactly what is happening today.

因此，如果沒有第三季度生成人工智能收入的好處，我們的半導體業務同比大致持平。事實上，自本財年年初以來，我們的季度半導體收入（不包括人工智能）穩定在 60 億美元左右。正如我們一年前向您表示的那樣，我們預計 23 財年將實現軟著陸，而現在看來這正是正在發生的情況。

Now let me give you more color on our end markets. As we go through this soft landing, we see though that our broad portfolio of products influencing the puts and takes across revenues within all our end markets, except one, and that is networking. And so in my remarks today, we focus on networking where generative AI has significant impact.

現在讓我為您提供有關我們終端市場的更多信息。當我們經歷這種軟著陸時，我們看到我們廣泛的產品組合影響著我們所有終端市場的看跌期權和期權收入，但網絡除外。因此，在我今天的講話中，我們重點關註生成式人工智能具有重大影響的網絡。

Networking -- Q3 networking revenue was $2.8 billion and was up 20% year-on-year in line with guidance, representing 40% of our semiconductor revenue. As we indicated above, our switches and routers as well as our Custom Silicon AI engines drove growth in this end market as they were deployed in scaling out AI clusters among the hyperscale.

網絡——第三季度網絡收入為 28 億美元，同比增長 20%，符合指引，占我們半導體收入的 40%。正如我們上面指出的，我們的交換機和路由器以及我們的定制芯片 AI 引擎推動了這一終端市場的增長，因為它們被部署在超大規模中擴展 AI 集群。

We've always believed, and more than ever now, with AI networks that Ethernet is the best networking protocol to scale out AI clusters. Ethernet today already offers the low latency attributes for machine learning and AI, and Broadcom has the best technology today and tomorrow. As a founding member of the Ultra Ethernet Consortium with other industry partners, we are driving Ethernet for scaling deployments in large language model networks.

對於人工智能網絡，我們始終比以往任何時候都更加相信，以太網是橫向擴展人工智能集群的最佳網絡協議。今天的以太網已經為機器學習和人工智能提供了低延遲屬性，而博通擁有當今和未來最好的技術。作為超級以太網聯盟與其他行業合作夥伴的創始成員，我們正在推動以太網在大型語言模型網絡中擴展部署。

Importantly, we're doing this based on open standards and a broad ecosystem. Over the past quarter, we have already received substantial orders for our next-generation Tomahawk 5 switch and Jericho3 AI routers and plan to begin shipping these products over the next 6 months to several hyperscale customers. This will replace the existing 400 gigabit networks with 800 gigabit connectivity. And beyond this, for the next-generation 1.6 terabit connectivity, we have already started development on the Tomahawk 6 switch, which has, among other things, [200G studies], generating throughput capacity of over 100 terabit per second.

重要的是，我們是基於開放標準和廣泛的生態系統來做到這一點的。在過去的季度中，我們已經收到了下一代 Tomahawk 5 交換機和 Jericho3 AI 路由器的大量訂單，併計劃在未來 6 個月內開始向幾個超大規模客戶發貨這些產品。這將以 800 Gb 連接取代現有的 400 Gb 網絡。除此之外，對於下一代 1.6 太比特連接，我們已經開始開發 Tomahawk 6 交換機，除其他外，該交換機還進行了 [200G 研究]，可產生每秒超過 100 太比特的吞吐量。

We are obviously excited that generative AI is pushing our engineers to develop cutting-edge technology in silicon technology that has never been developed before. We know the Moore's Law has set limits on computing in silicon technology. But what we are developing today feels very much like a revival. We invest in fundamental technologies to enable our hyperscale customers with the best hardware capabilities to scale generative AI. We invest in industry-leading 200G [studies] that can drive optics and even copper cables.

我們顯然很興奮，生成式人工智能正在推動我們的工程師開發以前從未開發過的矽技術尖端技術。我們知道摩爾定律對矽技術的計算設定了限制。但我們今天正在開發的東西感覺非常像是一種複興。我們投資於基礎技術，使我們的超大規模客戶能夠擁有最佳的硬件能力來擴展生成式人工智能。我們投資於行業領先的 200G [研究]，可以驅動光纖甚至銅纜。

We have differentiating technology that breaks current bottlenecks in high-bandwidth memory access. We also have X high-speed and ultra-low power to chip connectivity to integrate multiple AI compute engines. We also have invested heavily in complex packaging technologies, migrating from today's 2.5D to 3D, which enables large memory to be integrated with the AI compute engines and accelerators. In sum, we have developed end-to-end platform of plug-and-play silicon IP that enables hyperscalers to develop and deploy via AI clusters in an extremely accelerated time to market.

我們擁有突破當前高帶寬內存訪問瓶頸的差異化技術。我們還擁有 X 高速和超低功耗的芯片連接，以集成多個 AI 計算引擎。我們還大力投資複雜的封裝技術，從當今的 2.5D 遷移到 3D，使大內存能夠與 AI 計算引擎和加速器集成。總之，我們開發了即插即用矽 IP 的端到端平台，使超大規模企業能夠通過 AI 集群進行開發和部署，從而大大加快了上市時間。

Not surprisingly, in Q4 -- moving on to Q4, continuing to be driven by generative AI deployments, we expect our networking revenue to accelerate in excess of 20% year-on-year. And this has been driven by the strength, obviously, in generative AI, where we forecast to grow about 50% sequentially and almost 2x year-on-year.

毫不奇怪，第四季度——進入第四季度，在生成式人工智能部署的持續推動下，我們預計我們的網絡收入將同比增長超過 20%。顯然，這是由生成人工智能領域的實力推動的，我們預計該領域將連續增長約 50%，同比增長近 2 倍。

Moving to wireless. Q3 wireless revenue, $1.6 billion represented 24% of semiconductor revenue, up 4% sequentially, flat year-on-year. The engagement with our North American customer continues to be deep and multiyear across WiFi, Bluetooth, touch, RF front end and inductive power. So in Q4, consistent with its seasonal launch, we expect wireless revenue to grow over 20% sequentially and down low single-digit percent year-on-year.

轉向無線。第三季度無線收入為 16 億美元，佔半導體收入的 24%，環比增長 4%，同比持平。我們與北美客戶在 WiFi、藍牙、觸摸、射頻前端和感應電源方面的合作持續多年。因此，在第四季度，與其季節性推出相一致，我們預計無線收入將環比增長 20% 以上，同比下降較低的個位數百分比。

On our server storage connectivity revenue, it was $1.1 billion or 17% of semiconductor revenue and flat year-on-year. With a difficult year-on-year compare, we expect server storage connectivity revenue in Q4 to be down mid-teens percent year-on-year.

我們的服務器存儲連接收入為 11 億美元，佔半導體收入的 17%，與去年同期持平。由於同比比較困難，我們預計第四季度的服務器存儲連接收入將同比下降百分之十左右。

And moving on to broadband following 9 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth, revenue moderated to 1% year-on-year growth to $1.1 billion or 16% of semiconductor revenue. In Q4, despite increasing penetration of deployment of 10G PON among telcos, we expect broadband revenue to decline high single digits year-on-year.

在連續 9 個季度實現兩位數增長後，寬帶業務的收入同比增長放緩至 1%，達到 11 億美元，佔半導體收入的 16%。第四季度，儘管電信公司中 10G PON 部署的滲透率不斷提高，但我們預計寬帶收入同比將出現高個位數下降。

Finally, Q3 industrial resales of $236 million, declined 3% year-on-year, reflecting weak demand in China. And in Q4, though we expect an improvement with industrial resales up low single-digit percentage year-on-year, reflecting largely seasonality.

最後，第三季度工業轉售額為2.36億美元，同比下降3%，反映出中國需求疲軟。在第四季度，儘管我們預計工業轉售將同比出現低個位數百分比增長，這在很大程度上反映了季節性因素，但情況有所改善。

So in summary, Q3 semiconductor solutions revenue was up 5% year-on-year. And in Q4, we expect semiconductor revenue growth of low to mid-single-digit percentage year-on-year. Sequentially, if we exclude generative AI, our semiconductor revenue will be flat.

綜上所述，Q3半導體解決方案收入同比增長5%。在第四季度，我們預計半導體收入同比增長率為低至中個位數百分比。因此，如果我們排除生成式人工智能，我們的半導體收入將持平。

Now turning to software. In Q3 infrastructure software revenue of $1.9 billion grew 5% year-on-year and represented 22% of total revenue. For core software, consolidated renewal rates averaged 117% over expiring contracts. And in our strategic accounts, we averaged 127%. Within strategic accounts, annualized bookings of $408 million, included $129 million or 32% of cross-selling of other portfolio products to these same core customers. And over 90% of the renewal value represented recurring subscription and maintenance.

現在轉向軟件。第三季度基礎設施軟件收入為 19 億美元，同比增長 5%，佔總收入的 22%。對於核心軟件，到期合同的綜合續訂率平均為 117%。在我們的戰略客戶中，我們的平均率為 127%。在戰略客戶中，年化預訂額為 4.08 億美元，其中包括 1.29 億美元，即向這些核心客戶交叉銷售其他投資組合產品的 32%。超過 90% 的續訂價值來自定期訂閱和維護。

Over the last 12 months, I should add, consolidated renewal rates averaged 115% of expiring contracts. And in our strategic accounts, we averaged 125%. Because of this, our ARR, the indicator of our revenue at the end of Q3 was $5.3 billion. In Q4, we expect infrastructure software segment revenue to be up mid-single digit year-on-year. And on a consolidated basis for the company, we're guiding Q4 revenue of $9.27 billion, up 4% year-on-year.

我應該補充一點，在過去 12 個月中，到期合同的綜合續約率平均為 115%。在我們的戰略客戶中，我們的平均率為 125%。因此，我們的 ARR（第三季度末的收入指標）為 53 億美元。第四季度，我們預計基礎設施軟件部門的收入將同比增長中個位數。在公司合併基礎上，我們預計第四季度收入為 92.7 億美元，同比增長 4%。

Before Kirsten tells you more about our financial performance for the quarter, let me provide a brief update on our pending acquisition of VMware. We have received legal merger clearance in Australia, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, Israel, South Africa, Taiwan and the United Kingdom and foreign investment control clearance in all necessary jurisdictions. In the U.S., the Hart–Scott–Rodino premerger waiting periods have expired. And there is no legal impediment to closing under U.S. merger regulations.

在 Kirsten 向您詳細介紹我們本季度的財務業績之前，讓我先簡要介紹一下我們即將收購 VMware 的最新情況。我們已獲得澳大利亞、巴西、加拿大、歐盟、以色列、南非、台灣和英國的合法合併許可，以及所有必要司法管轄區的外商投資控制許可。在美國，哈特·斯科特·羅迪諾的合併前等待期已經到期。根據美國併購法規，關閉不存在任何法律障礙。

We continue to work constructively with regulators in a few other jurisdictions and are in the advanced stages of the process towards obtaining the remaining required regulatory approvals, which we believe will be received before October 30. We continue to expect to close on October 30, 2023. Now, Broadcom is confident that the combination with VMware will enhance competition in the cloud and benefit enterprise customers by giving them more choice and control where they locate their workloads.

我們繼續與其他幾個司法管轄區的監管機構進行建設性合作，並處於獲得剩餘所需監管批准的後期階段，我們相信這些批准將在10 月30 日之前收到。我們仍然預計於2023 年10月30 日結束現在，Broadcom 相信，與 VMware 的合併將增強雲領域的競爭，並為企業客戶提供更多選擇和控制工作負載的位置，從而使他們受益。

With that, let me turn the call over to Kirsten.

接下來，讓我把電話轉給克爾斯滕。

Thank you, Hock. Let me now provide additional detail on our financial performance. Consolidated revenue was $8.9 billion for the quarter, up 5% from a year ago. Gross margins were 75.1% of revenue in the quarter, in line with our expectations. Operating expenses were $1.1 billion, down 8% year-on-year. R&D of $913 million was also down 8% year-on-year on lower variable spending.

謝謝你，霍克。現在讓我提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細信息。該季度綜合收入為 89 億美元，比去年同期增長 5%。本季度毛利率佔收入的 75.1%，符合我們的預期。運營費用為11億美元，同比下降8%。由於可變支出減少，研發費用為 9.13 億美元，同比下降 8%。

Operating income for the quarter was $5.5 billion and was up 6% from a year ago. Operating margin was 62% of revenue, up approximately 100 basis points year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA was $5.8 billion or 65% of revenue. This figure excludes $122 million of depreciation.

該季度營業收入為 55 億美元，比去年同期增長 6%。營業利潤率為收入的62%，同比增長約100個基點。調整後 EBITDA 為 58 億美元，佔收入的 65%。該數字不包括 1.22 億美元的折舊。

Now a review of the P&L for our 2 segments. Revenue for our semiconductor solutions segment was $6.9 billion and represented 78% of total revenue in the quarter. This was up 5% year-on-year. Gross margins for our semiconductor solutions segment were approximately 70%, down 160 basis points year-on-year, driven primarily by product mix within our semiconductor end markets. Operating expenses were $792 million in Q3, down 7% year-on-year. R&D was $707 million in the quarter, down 8% year-on-year. Q3 semiconductor operating margins were 59%.

現在回顧一下我們兩個部門的損益表。我們的半導體解決方案部門的收入為 69 億美元，佔本季度總收入的 78%。這一數字同比增長了 5%。我們的半導體解決方案部門的毛利率約為 70%，同比下降 160 個基點，這主要是由我們的半導體終端市場的產品組合推動的。第三季度運營費用為 7.92 億美元，同比下降 7%。該季度研發費用為 7.07 億美元，同比下降 8%。第三季度半導體營業利潤率為 59%。

Moving to the P&L for our infrastructure software segment. Revenue for the infrastructure software segment was $1.9 billion, up 5% year-on-year and represented 22% of revenue. Gross margins for infrastructure software were 92% in the quarter and operating expenses were $337 million in the quarter, down 10% year-over-year. The infrastructure software operating margin was 75% in Q3 and operating profit grew 13% year-on-year.

轉向我們的基礎設施軟件部門的損益表。基礎設施軟件部門的收入為19億美元，同比增長5%，佔收入的22%。該季度基礎設施軟件毛利率為 92%，運營費用為 3.37 億美元，同比下降 10%。第三季度基礎設施軟件營業利潤率為75%，營業利潤同比增長13%。

Moving on to cash flow. Free cash flow in the quarter was $4.6 billion and represented 52% of revenues in Q3. We spent a $122 million on capital expenditures. Days sales outstanding were 30 days in the third quarter compared to 32 days in the second quarter. We ended the third quarter with inventory of $1.8 billion, down 2% sequentially. We continue to remain very disciplined on how we manage inventory across the echo system. We exited the quarter with 80 days of inventory on hand, down 86 days in Q2 -- down from excuse me, 86 days in Q2.

轉向現金流。該季度自由現金流為 46 億美元，佔第三季度收入的 52%。我們的資本支出為 1.22 億美元。第三季度的應收賬款天數為 30 天，而第二季度為 32 天。第三季度末，我們的庫存為 18 億美元，比上一季度下降 2%。我們在整個 echo 系統的庫存管理方式上繼續保持嚴格的紀律。本季度結束時，我們的庫存量為 80 天，比第二季度減少了 86 天——對不起，比第二季度的 86 天減少了。

We ended the third quarter with $12.1 billion of cash and $39.3 billion of gross debt, of which $1.1 billion is short term. The weighted average coupon rate and years to maturity of our fixed rate debt is 3.61% and 9.7 years, respectively.

第三季度末，我們擁有 121 億美元現金和 393 億美元總債務，其中 11 億美元是短期債務。我們固定利率債務的加權平均票面利率和到期年限分別為 3.61% 和 9.7 年。

Turning to capital allocation. In the quarter, we paid stockholders $1.9 million of cash dividends. Consistent with our commitment to return excess cash to shareholders, we repurchased $1.7 billion of our common stock and eliminated $460 million of our common stock for taxes due on vesting of employee equity, resulting in the repurchase and elimination of approximately 2.9 million AVGO shares.

轉向資本配置。本季度，我們向股東支付了 190 萬美元的現金股息。根據我們向股東返還多餘現金的承諾，我們回購了17 億美元的普通股，並沖銷了4.6 億美元的普通股，以支付因員工股權歸屬而應繳的稅款，從而回購併沖銷了約290 萬股AVGO 股票。

The non-GAAP diluted share count in Q3 was 436 million. As of the end of Q3, $7.3 billion was remaining under the share repurchase authorization. We suspended our repurchase program in early August in accordance with SEC rules, which do not allow stock buybacks during the period in which VMware shareholders are electing between cash and stock consideration in our pending transaction to acquire VMware. We expect the election period to end shortly before the anticipated closing of the transaction on October 30, 2023.

第三季度非 GAAP 稀釋後股票數量為 4.36 億股。截至第三季度末，股票回購授權尚有 73 億美元。我們根據 SEC 規則於 8 月初暫停了回購計劃，該規則不允許在 VMware 股東在我們收購 VMware 的待決交易中選擇現金和股票對價期間進行股票回購。我們預計選舉期將在預計 2023 年 10 月 30 日交易結束前不久結束。

Excluding the impact of any share repurchases executed prior to the suspension, in Q4, we expect the non-GAAP diluted share count to be 435 million. Based on current business trends and conditions, our guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 is for consolidated revenues of $9.27 billion and adjusted EBITDA of approximately 65% of projected revenue. In Q4, we expect gross margins to be down 80 basis points sequentially on product mix. We note that our guidance for Q4 does not include any contribution from VMware.

排除停牌前執行的任何股票回購的影響，我們預計第四季度非 GAAP 稀釋後股票數量將為 4.35 億股。根據當前的業務趨勢和狀況，我們對 2023 財年第四季度的指導是合併收入為 92.7 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 約為預計收入的 65%。第四季度，我們預計產品組合的毛利率將環比下降 80 個基點。我們注意到，我們對第四季度的指導不包括 VMware 的任何貢獻。

That concludes my prepared remarks. Operator, please open up the call for questions.

我準備好的發言就到此結束。接線員，請撥打電話詢問問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Vivek Arya 與美國銀行的線路。

Hock, my question has to do with your large AI ASIC compute offload contract. Is this something you feel you have the visibility to hold on to for the next several years? Or does this face some kind of annual competitive situation because you have a range of both domestic and Taiwan-based ASIC competitors, right, who think they can do it for cheaper. So I'm just curious, what is your visibility into maintaining this competitive win and then hopefully growing content in this over the next several years?

Hock，我的問題與您的大型 AI ASIC 計算卸載合同有關。您認為您有能力在未來幾年內堅持下去嗎？或者這是否會面臨某種年度競爭局面，因為你有一系列國內和台灣的 ASIC 競爭對手，對吧，他們認為他們可以以更便宜的價格做到這一點。所以我很好奇，您對保持這種競爭優勢以及希望在未來幾年內增加內容的看法如何？

I love to answer your question, Vivek, but I will not, not directly anyway because we do not discuss our dealings and especially specific dealings of the nature you're asking with respect to any particular customer. So that's not appropriate. But I tell you this in broad generality, many ways you look over in our long-term arrangements -- long-term agreements with our large North American OEM customer in wireless, very similar. We have multiyear very strategic engagement in usually more than one leading-edge technologies, which is what you need to create those kind of products whether it's wireless or in this case, in generative AI. Multiple technologies that goes into creating the product they want. And it's very strategic and it's multiyear. And engagement is very broad and deep.

我很樂意回答你的問題，Vivek，但我不會，至少不會直接回答，因為我們不討論我們的交易，特別是你所詢問的針對任何特定客戶的具體交易。所以這是不合適的。但我從廣義上告訴您這一點，您在我們的長期安排（與我們大型北美 OEM 客戶在無線領域簽訂的長期協​​議）的許多方面都非常相似。我們通常在不止一種領先技術方面進行了多年的戰略性參與，這正是創建此類產品（無論是無線產品還是本例中的生成人工智能產品）所需的技術。多種技術可用於創造他們想要的產品。這是非常具有戰略意義的，而且是多年期的。而且參與度非常廣泛和深入。

One moment for our next question, and that will come from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

請稍等一下，我們的下一個問題將來自哈蘭·蘇爾 (Harlan Sur) 與摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 的電話。

Great to see the market diversification, market leadership and supply discipline really sort of allowing the team to drive this sort of stable $6 billion per quarter run rate in a relatively weak macro environment. Looking at your customers' demand profiles, your strong visibility, given your lead times, can the team continue to sustain a stable-ish sort of $6 billion revenue profile ex AI over the next few quarters before macro trends potentially start to improve? Or do you anticipate enterprise and service provider trends to continue to soften beyond this quarter?

很高興看到市場多元化、市場領導力和供應紀律確實讓團隊能夠在相對疲軟的宏觀環境中推動這種穩定的每季度 60 億美元的運行速度。考慮到客戶的需求概況、強大的可見性以及交貨時間，在宏觀趨勢可能開始改善之前，團隊能否在未來幾個季度繼續維持 60 億美元的穩定收入狀況（除人工智能外）？或者您預計本季度之後企業和服務提供商的趨勢將繼續疲軟？

You're asking me to guide beyond a quarter. I mean, hey, that's beyond my pay grade, Harlan. I know but I just want to point out to you, we promised you a soft landing, late '20 -- fiscal late '22, that likely '23 will be a soft lending. And as you pointed out and what -- to my remarks, that's exactly what we are seeing.

你要求我指導超過四分之一的時間。我的意思是，嘿，這超出了我的工資等級，哈倫。我知道，但我只是想向你們指出，我們向你們承諾將在 20 世紀末——22 財年末實現軟著陸，23 世紀可能會出現軟貸款。正如你所指出的，就我而言，這正是我們所看到的。

One moment for our next question, and that will come from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

現在我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西莫爾（Ross Seymore）。

I want to stick with networking segment and just get a little more color on the AI demand that you talked about growing so significantly sequentially in the fourth quarter. Is that mainly on the compute offload side? Or is the networking side contributing as well? Any color on that would be helpful.

我想繼續關注網絡領域，並進一步了解您所說的第四季度連續顯著增長的人工智能需求。主要是在計算卸載方面嗎？或者網絡方面也有貢獻？任何顏色都會有幫助。

They go hand -- Ross, these things go very hand-in-hand. You don't deploy those AI engines in these days for generative AI, particularly in onesies or twosies anymore. They come in large clusters or parts as hyperscalers call -- some hyperscalers call it. And with that, it's -- you need a fabric, networking connectivity among thousands -- tens of thousands today of those AI engines, whether it's GPUs or some other customized AI silica compute engine. The whole fabric with its AI engine represents literally the computer, the AI infrastructure. So it's hand-in-hand that our numbers have driven very, very correlated to not just AI engines, whether we do the AI engines or somebody else, merchant silicon does those GPU engines. Also we supply a lot of the Ethernet networking solutions.

它們是相輔相成的——羅斯，這些事情是相輔相成的。如今，您不再需要為生成式人工智能部署這些人工智能引擎，尤其是在連體衣或兩件套中。正如超大規模者所稱的那樣，它們以大型集群或部分的形式出現——一些超大規模者如此稱呼它。有了這個，你需要一個結構，在今天成千上萬個人工智能引擎之間進行網絡連接，無論是 GPU 還是其他一些定制的人工智能二氧化矽計算引擎。整個結構及其人工智能引擎實際上代表了計算機，即人工智能基礎設施。因此，我們的數字不僅與人工智能引擎密切相關，無論是我們做人工智能引擎還是其他人，商業芯片都做這些 GPU 引擎。我們還提供許多以太網網絡解決方案。

One moment for our next question, and that will come from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein.

現在我們的下一個問題將來自史黛西·拉斯貢（Stacy Rasgon）和伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）的台詞。

If I take that sort of $6 billion non-AI run rate, and I calculate what the AI, I'm actually getting that 15% of semiconductor revenue that you mentioned last quarter. Do you still think it's going to be 25% of revenue next year? And just how do I think about how you get to that number if that -- so I guess 2 questions. One is, is that number still 25%? Or is it higher or lower? And then how do I get it with the 2 moving pieces, the AI and the non-AI in order to get there because that percentage goes up if the non-AI goes down?

如果我採用 60 億美元的非人工智能運行率，併計算人工智能的內容，我實際上獲得了您上季度提到的半導體收入的 15%。你還認為明年會佔收入的25%嗎？如果是的話，我該如何考慮如何得到這個數字——所以我想有兩個問題。一是這個數字還是25%嗎？或者是更高還是更低？然後我如何通過人工智能和非人工智能這兩個移動部分來實現這一目標，因為如果非人工智能下降，這個百分比就會上升？

Well, it's -- there are a couple of assumptions. One has to make -- none of which I'm going to help you with as you know, because I don't guide next year. But except to tell you our AI revenue, as we indicated, has been accelerating -- on an accelerating trajectory and no surprise. You guys hear that because deployment has been extremely on an urgent basis and the demand we are seeing has been fairly strong, very strong. And so we see it accelerating through end of '22, now accelerated and it continue to accelerate through end of '23 that we just indicated to you. And for fiscal '24, we expect somewhat a similar accelerating trend.

嗯，有幾個假設。一個人必須做出——正如你所知，我不會為你提供任何幫助，因為明年我不會提供指導。但除了告訴你，我們的人工智能收入，正如我們所指出的，一直在加速——沿著加速的軌跡，這並不奇怪。你們聽到這個消息是因為部署非常緊急，而且我們看到的需求相當強勁、非常強勁。因此，我們看到它在 22 年底加速，現在加速，並且在我們剛剛向您指出的 23 年底繼續加速。對於 24 財年，我們預計會出現類似的加速趨勢。

And so to answer your question, we have always indicated previously that for fiscal '24, which is just -- which is a forecast, we believe it will be over 25% of our revenue -- of our semiconductor revenue -- over 25% of our semiconductor revenue.

因此，為了回答你的問題，我們之前一直表示，對於 24 財年，這只是——這是一個預測，我們相信這將超過我們收入的 25%——我們的半導體收入——超過 25%我們的半導體收入。

One moment for our next question, and that will come from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

請稍等一下，我們的下一個問題將來自高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的 Toshiya Hari。

I had one quick clarification then a question. On the clarification, Hock, can you talk about the supply environment, if that's a constraining factor for your AI business? And if so, what kind of growth from a capacity perspective do you expect into fiscal '24? And then my question is more on the non-AI side. As you guys talked about, you've done really well in managing your own inventory. But when you look across inventory levels for your customers or at your customers, it seems as though they're sitting on quite a bit of inventory. So what's your confidence level as it pertains to a potential inventory correction in your non-AI business, networking business going forward?

我先做了一個簡短的澄清，然後提出了一個問題。關於澄清，Hock，您能談談供應環境嗎？如果這對您的人工智能業務是一個制約因素？如果是這樣，從產能角度來看，您預計 24 財年會出現什麼樣的增長？然後我的問題更多是在非人工智能方面。正如你們所說，你們在管理自己的庫存方面做得非常好。但是，當您查看您的客戶或您的客戶的庫存水平時，您會發現他們似乎擁有相當多的庫存。那麼，對於未來非人工智能業務、網絡業務的潛在庫存調整，您的信心是多少？

Okay. Well, on the first question, you're talking about supply chain. Well, these products for generative AI, whether they are networking and the custom engines take long lead times. These are very, very leading-edge silicon products, both in terms of across the entire stack from the chip itself, to the packaging to even memory, the kind of HBM memory that is used in those chips. It's all very long lead time and very cutting-edge products. So we're trying to supply like everybody else wants to have within lead times.

好的。嗯，關於第一個問題，你談論的是供應鏈。嗯，這些用於生成人工智能的產品，無論是網絡還是定制引擎都需要很長的交貨時間。這些都是非常非常前沿的矽產品，無論是從芯片本身的整個堆棧，還是到封裝，甚至內存（這些芯片中使用的 HBM 內存）。這些都是非常長的交貨時間和非常尖端的產品。因此，我們正努力在交貨時間內提供像其他人希望的那樣的供應。

So by definition, you have constraints. And so do we, we have constraints and we're trying to work through the constraints but it's a lot of constraints. And you'll never change as long as demand orders flow in shorter than the lead time needed for production because the production of these parts are very long extended. And that's the constraint we see as they come in faster than lead times allow as orders come in.

所以根據定義，你有限制。我們也是如此，我們有限制，我們正在努力克服這些限制，但有很多限制。只要需求訂單的流動時間短於生產所需的提前期，您就永遠不會改變，因為這些零件的生產時間很長。這就是我們看到的限制，因為隨著訂單的到來，它們的交貨速度快於交貨時間所允許的速度。

The answer on your second part. Well, as far as we do see, we are kind of, as I indicated, I call it soft lending. Another way of looking at it is that $6 billion approximately of non-AI related revenue per quarter is kind of bumping up and down on a plateau. Think of it that way. We -- growth is kind of down to very little but still pretty stable up there. And so we have -- as I indicated, too, we don't have any one product in any one end market. We have multiple products. As you know, our portfolio is fairly broad, diversified and categorize into each end market with multiple different products. And each product run on its own cadence, sometimes on it's -- on the timing on when customer wants it. And so you see bumping up and down different levels. But again, it average just out over each quarter as we pointed out, around $6 billion. And for now, we're seeing that happen.

你的第二部分的答案。嗯，就我們所看到的而言，正如我所指出的，我們稱之為軟貸款。另一種看待這個問題的方式是，每季度大約 60 億美元的非人工智能相關收入處於平穩狀態，上下波動。這麼想吧。我們的增長有點小，但仍然相當穩定。因此，正如我所指出的，我們在任何一個終端市場都沒有任何一種產品。我們有多種產品。如您所知，我們的產品組合相當廣泛、多樣化，並通過多種不同的產品分類到每個終端市場。每個產品都按照自己的節奏運行，有時是按照客戶需要的時間運行。所以你會看到不同層次的上下碰撞。但正如我們所指出的，每個季度的平均金額約為 60 億美元。目前，我們正在看到這種情況發生。

One moment for our next question, and that will come from the line of Karl Ackerman with BNP Paribas.

請稍等一下，我們的下一個問題將來自法國巴黎銀行的卡爾·阿克曼 (Karl Ackerman)。

Just on gross margins, you had a tough compare year-over-year for your semiconductor gross margins, which, of course, remains some of the best in semis. But is there a way to think or quantify about the headwind to gross margins this year from still elevated logistics costs and (inaudible) costs as we think about the supply chain perhaps freeing up next year that perhaps could be a tailwind?

僅就毛利率而言，您的半導體毛利率與去年同期相比非常艱難，當然，半導體毛利率仍然是半成品中最好的之一。但是，當我們考慮明年供應鏈可能會釋放出可能成為順風的時候，是否有辦法思考或量化今年物流成本和（聽不清）成本仍然上升對毛利率的不利影響？

Karl, it is Hock. Let me take a [step] at this question because it's really a more holistic answer, and here's what I mean. The impact to us on gross margin more than anything else, it's not related to transactional supply chain issues. They -- I'm sure they have in any particular point in time, but not as material and not as sustained in terms of impacting trends. What drives gross margin largely for us as a company is, frankly, a product mix -- it's product mix. And as I mentioned earlier, we have a broad range of products even as we try to make order out of it from a viewpoint of communication and segment them put -- classify them into multiple end markets.

卡爾，我是霍克。讓我對這個問題採取[步驟]，因為這確實是一個更全面的答案，這就是我的意思。對我們毛利率的影響最重要的是，它與交易供應鏈問題無關。我確信它們在任何特定的時間點都有，但在影響趨勢方面沒有那麼實質性和持續性。坦率地說，對我們公司來說，推動毛利率的主要因素是產品組合——它是產品組合。正如我之前提到的，我們擁有廣泛的產品，儘管我們試圖從溝通的角度對其進行排序，並將它們分類——將它們分類到多個終端市場。

Within this end market, your products, and they all have different gross margins depending on the -- where they used and the criticality and various other space. So they're different. So we have a real mixed bank. And what drives the trend in gross margin more than anything else is the pace of adoption of next-generation products in each product category, so think in that way.

在這個終端市場中，您的產品以及它們都有不同的毛利率，具體取決於它們的使用地點、重要性和各種其他空間。所以他們是不同的。所以我們有一個真正的混合銀行。推動毛利率趨勢的最重要因素是每個產品類別中下一代產品的採用速度，因此請以這種方式思考。

And you measure it across multiple products. And each time a new generation of a particular product gets adopted, we get the opportunity to lift -- uplift gross margin. And therefore, the rate of adoption matters, for instance, because for some products that changes gross margin every few years versus one that's more extended one.

你可以通過多種產品來衡量它。每次採用新一代特定產品時，我們就有機會提高毛利率。因此，採用率很重要，因為對於某些產品來說，毛利率每隔幾年就會發生變化，而毛利率則更長。

You have different gross margin growth profile. And this is what is all tied to the most important variable. Now the more interesting thing to come down to us on a specifically your question is during '21, '22, in particular, with an up cycle in the semiconductor industry. We had a lot of lockdowns, change in behavior and a high level of demand for semiconductors. Or put it this way, a shortage of supply to demand. There was accelerated adoption of a lot of products, accelerated adoption.

你們有不同的毛利率增長情況。這就是與最重要的變量相關的一切。現在，針對您的具體問題，更有趣的事情是在“21”、“22”期間，特別是在半導體行業的上升週期期間。我們經歷了很多封鎖、行為改變以及對半導體的高需求。或者這樣說，就是供需短缺。許多產品的採用速度加快了。

So we benefited -- among other things, not just revenue, as I indicated, we benefited from gross margin expansion across the board as a higher percentage of our products out there gets adopted into the next-generation faster. We pass this, there is probably some slowdown in the adoption rate. And so gross margin expansion might actually not expand as fast. But it will work itself out over time. And I've always told you guys, the model this company has seen and it's empirical, but based on this underlying basic economics, it's simply that when we have -- the broad range of products we have and each of them a different product life cycle of upgrading and next generation, we have seen over the years on a long-term basis, an expansion of gross margin on a consolidated basis for semiconductors that ranges from 50 to maybe 150 basis points on an annual basis.

因此，我們受益匪淺，正如我所指出的，不僅僅是收入，我們還受益於毛利率的全面擴張，因為我們的產品中更高比例的產品更快地被下一代採用。我們通過了這一點，採用率可能會有所放緩。因此，毛利率擴張實際上可能不會那麼快。但隨著時間的推移，它會自行解決。我一直告訴你們，這家公司所看到的模型是經驗性的，但基於這種潛在的基本經濟學，很簡單，當我們擁有廣泛的產品，並且每種產品都有不同的產品壽命時在升級和下一代的周期中，我們多年來長期看到半導體毛利率在綜合基礎上的擴大，每年範圍從50 到150 個基點不等。

And that's a long-term basis. In between, of course, you've seen numbers that go over to 200 basis points that happened in 2022. And so now later, you have to offset that with years where gross margin expansion might be much less like 50. And I think with that the process, you will see us go through on an ongoing basis.

這是一個長期的基礎。當然，在這之間，你已經看到了 2022 年發生的超過 200 個基點的數字。所以現在，你必須用毛利率擴張可能遠不如 50 的年份來抵消這一點。我認為您將看到我們持續經歷這個過程。

One moment for our next question, and that will come from the line of Harsh Kumar with Piper Sandler.

請稍等一下，我們的下一個問題將來自 Harsh Kumar 和 Piper Sandler。

Yes. Hock, so congratulations on our textbook soft landing. I mean it's perfectly executed. I had a question, I guess, more so on the takeoff timing. You've got a lead time that is about 1 year for your -- most of your product lines. So I suppose you see visibility a year out. The question really is, are you starting to see growth in backlog about a year out? So in other words, we can assume that we'll spend time at the bottom for about a year and then start to come back? Or is it happening before that time frame or maybe not even a year out? Just any color would be helpful. And then, as a clarification, Hock, is China approval needed for VMware or not needed?

是的。霍克，祝賀我們的教科書軟著陸。我的意思是它執行得很完美。我想，我有一個問題，更多的是關於起飛時間的問題。您的大部分產品線的交貨時間約為 1 年。所以我想一年後你就會看到可見性。真正的問題是，大約一年後您是否開始看到積壓的情況出現增長？換句話說，我們可以假設我們會在底部度過大約一年的時間，然後開始回歸？或者它是在該時間範圍之前發生的，或者甚至可能不到一年？任何顏色都會有幫助。然後，Hock 需要澄清一下，VMware 是否需要中國的批准？

Let's start with lead times and asking me to predict when the up cycle would happen. It's still too early for me to want to predict that, to be honest with you, because even though we have 50 weeks lead time, I have overlaid on it today. Nice, a lot of bookings related to generative AI. A decent amount of bookings related to wireless, too. So that kind of like buyers, what I'm looking at. So the answer to you -- a very unsatisfactory, I know answer to your question is too early for me to tell, but we do have an decent amount of orders.

讓我們從交貨時間開始，並要求我預測上升週期何時發生。老實說，現在對我來說預測還為時過早，因為儘管我們有 50 週的交付時間，但我今天已經將其覆蓋了。很好，有很多與生成人工智能相關的預訂。也有相當數量的預訂與無線相關。這就像我所關注的買家一樣。所以給你的答案——非常不滿意，我知道回答你的問題對我來說還為時過早，但我們確實有相當數量的訂單。

And then on the VMware?

然後在VMware上呢？

I -- let me say this. I made those specific notes or remarks on regulatory approval. I ask that you think it through, read it through and let's stop right there.

我——讓我這麼說。我對監管批准做了這些具體的說明或評論。我要求你想清楚，通讀一遍，然後就到此為止。

And one moment for our next question, and that will come from the line of Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

請稍等一下，我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的亞倫·雷克斯 (Aaron Rakers)。

Yes. And congrats also on the execution. I'm just curious, as I think about the Ethernet opportunity in AI fabric build-outs. Just Hock, any kind of updated thoughts now with the Ethernet consortium that you're part of thoughts as far as Ethernet relative to Infiniband, particularly at the East West layer of these AI fabric build-outs with Tomahawk 5, Jericho3 sounding like it's going to start shipping in volume maybe in the next 6 months or so. Is that an inflection where you actually see Ethernet really start to take hold in the east-west traffic layer of these AI networks?

是的。也祝賀執行。我只是很好奇，因為我想到了人工智能結構構建中的以太網機會。只是霍克，現在與以太網聯盟有任何更新的想法，就以太網相對於Infiniband 而言，您是想法的一部分，特別是在這些AI 結構構建的東西層，Tomahawk 5、Jericho3 聽起來像是正在發展可能會在未來 6 個月左右開始批量發貨。您是否真的看到以太網真正開始在這些人工智能網絡的東西向流量層中佔據主導地位？

That's a very interesting question. And frankly, my personal view is Infiniband has been the choice in the old -- for years and years, generations of high -- what we call -- what we have called before high-performance computing, right? And high-performance computing was the old term for AI, by the way. So that was it because it was very dedicated application workloads and not a scale out as large language models drive today. With large language models driving and most of -- all this large language models are now being driven a lot by the hyperscale. Frankly, you see Ethernet getting huge amount of traction. And Ethernet is shipping. It's not just getting traction to the future. It is shipping in many hyperscales. And it coexist Best way to describe it with Infiniband.

這是一個非常有趣的問題。坦率地說，我個人的觀點是，Infiniband 一直是老一代人的選擇——多年來，幾代高人——我們所說的——我們在高性能計算之前所說的，對嗎？順便說一句，高性能計算是人工智能的舊術語。就是這樣，因為它是非常專用的應用程序工作負載，而不是像當今大型語言模型驅動的那樣進行橫向擴展。隨著大型語言模型的驅動，所有這些大型語言模型現在很大程度上都是由超大規模驅動的。坦率地說，您會發現以太網受到了巨大的關注。以太網正在發貨。這不僅僅是吸引未來。它正在許多超大規模中運輸。它與 Infiniband 共存是描述它的最佳方式。

And it all depends on the workloads. It depends on the particular application that's driving it. And at the end of the day, it also depends on, frankly, how large you want to scale your AI clusters. The larger you scale it, the more tendency you have to basically open it up to Ethernet.

這一切都取決於工作負載。這取決於驅動它的特定應用程序。坦率地說，歸根結底，這還取決於您想要擴展人工智能集群的規模。你的規模越大，你就越傾向於將其開放給以太網。

One moment for our next question, and that will come from the line of Matt Ramsay with TD Cowen.

請稍等一下，我們的下一個問題將來自 Matt Ramsay 和 TD Cowen 的對話。

Hock, I wanted to ask a question. I guess maybe a 2-part question on your Custom Silicon business. Obviously, the large customer is ramping really, really nicely as you described. But there are many other sort of large hyperscale customers that are considering Custom Silicon, maybe catalyzed by Gen AI, maybe some not. But I wonder if the recent surge in Gen AI spending and enthusiasm has maybe widened the aperture of your appetite to take on big projects for other large customers in that arena? And secondly, any appetite at all to consider custom -- switching routing products for customers or really a keen focus on merchant in those areas?

霍克，我想問一個問題。我想這可能是關於您的定制矽業務的兩部分問題。顯然，正如您所描述的那樣，大客戶的增長速度非常非常好。但還有許多其他類型的大型超大規模客戶正在考慮定制芯片，也許是受到 Gen AI 的催化，也許有些不是。但我想知道最近人工智能支出和熱情的激增是否可能擴大了您為該領域的其他大客戶承擔大型項目的興趣？其次，是否有興趣考慮為客戶定制交換路由產品，或者真正熱衷於這些領域的商家？

Well, thank you. That's a very insightful question. We only have one large customer in AI engines. We're not a GPU company, and we're not -- we don't do much compute, as you know, other than offload computing having said that, but it's very customized. And I mean, what I'm trying to say is that I don't want to mislead you guys. The fact that I may have engagement, and I'm not saying I do on a custom program should not at all be translated into your minds as, "Oh, yes, this is a pipeline that will translate to revenue." Creating hardware infrastructure to run these large language models of hyperscalers is an extremely difficult and complex test for anyone to do. And the fact that even if there is any engagement, it does not translate easily to revenues. And I -- so suffice it to say, I leave it at that I have one hyperscale who we are shipping custom AI engines to today. I leave it at that, if you don't mind, okay?

嗯，謝謝。這是一個非常有洞察力的問題。我們在人工智能引擎方面只有一個大客戶。我們不是一家 GPU 公司，而且我們也不是——如您所知，除了卸載計算之外，我們不做太多計算，但它是非常定制的。我的意思是，我想說的是我不想誤導你們。事實上，我可能有參與，而且我並不是說我在定製程序上參與，這一事實根本不應該被轉化為你的想法，“哦，是的，這是一個將轉化為收入的管道。”創建硬件基礎設施來運行這些大型超大規模語言模型對於任何人來說都是一項極其困難且複雜的測試。事實上，即使有任何參與，也不容易轉化為收入。我可以這麼說，我有一個超大規模，我們今天正在向其運送定制人工智能引擎。我就這樣吧，如果你不介意的話，可以嗎？

Now as far as customized switching, routing, sure. I mean, that happens. Most of the -- many of the -- those few OEMs, some OEMs who are supplying systems -- switch systems, which are switches or routers have their own custom solutions together with their own proprietary operate -- network operating system. That's been the model for the last 20, 30 years. And today, 70% of the market is on merchant silicon.

現在就定制交換、路由而言，是肯定的。我的意思是，這種情況發生了。大多數——許多——少數的原始設備製造商，一些提供系統——交換機系統的原始設備製造商，即交換機或路由器，都有自己的定制解決方案以及自己專有的操作——網絡操作系統。這一直是過去 20、30 年的模式。如今，70% 的市場都在商用芯片上。

Not yet, I won't say for not the network operating system, but certainly for the silicon is merchant silicon. So the message here is, there's some advantages to doing a merchant solution here then to trying to do a custom solution as behavior or performance over the last 20 years have shown.

還沒有，我不會說不是網絡操作系統，但肯定是芯片是商業芯片。因此，這裡要傳達的信息是，正如過去 20 年的行為或表現所表明的那樣，在這裡實施商家解決方案比嘗試實施自定義解決方案具有一些優勢。

One moment for our next question, and that will come from the line of Christopher Rolland with Susquehanna.

我們的下一個問題請稍等片刻，這將來自克里斯托弗·羅蘭和薩斯奎哈納的路線。

So I think there's been 2 really great parts of the Broadcom story that has surprised me. And the first is the AI upside. And the second is just the resilience of the core business and particularly storage and broadband in light of what have been kind of horror shows for some of your competitors who, I think, are in clear down cycles. So I've maybe been waiting for a reset in storage and broadband for a while, and it looks like Q4 gets a little softer here for you. Maybe you're calling that where you said a soft landing, Hock. So I guess maybe you can describe a little bit more for us what you mean by a soft landing. Does that mean that we have indeed landed here? Would you expect those businesses to be bottoming here at least? And I know you've talked about it before, you guys have had tight inventory management. But is there perhaps even a little bit more inventory showing up -- more inventory burn showing up for these markets? Or are the dynamics here, just all and demand that has started to deteriorate here?

所以我認為博通故事中有兩個非常精彩的部分讓我感到驚訝。首先是人工智能的優勢。第二個是核心業務的彈性，特別是存儲和寬帶，因為我認為一些競爭對手正處於明顯的下行週期，這對他們來說是一種恐怖的表現。所以我可能已經等待存儲和寬帶的重置有一段時間了，看起來第四季度對你來說變得有點軟了。也許你所說的就是軟著陸，霍克。所以我想也許你可以為我們多描述一下軟著陸的含義。這是否意味著我們確實已經降落在這裡了？您預計這些業務至少會觸底嗎？我知道你們之前已經談到過，你們有嚴格的庫存管理。但這些市場是否會出現更多的庫存——更多的庫存消耗？或者這裡的動態只是這裡的所有需求都開始惡化？

Thanks. First and foremost, and you've heard me talked about in preceding quarter earning calls, and I continue to say it, and Kirsten reemphasized it today, we shipped very much to only end demand of our end customers. And we're looking beyond in enterprise, even beyond -- and telcos even beyond OEM. We look to the end users, the enterprises of those OEM customers. We try to. Doesn't mean we are right all the time, but we pretty much are getting very good at it. And we only ship to that.

謝謝。首先也是最重要的，你已經聽我在上一季度的財報電話會議上談到過，我繼續這麼說，克爾斯滕今天再次強調，我們的出貨量非常大，只是為了滿足最終客戶的最終需求。我們的目光不僅限於企業，甚至超出了電信公司，甚至超出了 OEM。我們著眼於最終用戶，即那些 OEM 客戶的企業。我們嘗試這樣做。並不意味著我們一直都是對的，但我們幾乎正在變得非常擅長。我們只運送到那個。

And what you're seeing is why I'm saying this -- what you're looking at, for instance, some numbers in broadband, some numbers in service storage that seems not quite as flat, which is why I made the point of purposely saying, but look at it collectively taking out generative AI. My whole portfolio of products out there. It's pretty broad, and it gets segmented into different end markets. And when we reach, I call it a plateau as we are in, you -- a soft landing, as you call it, you never stay flat. There will be some products because of timing of shipments come in more and some ship out the wrong timing come in a bit lower.

你所看到的就是我這麼說的原因 - 例如，你所看到的寬帶中的一些數字，服務存儲中的一些數字似乎不太平坦，這就是為什麼我提出這一點故意這麼說，但看看它集體剔除了生成式人工智能。我的整個產品組合都在那裡。它非常廣泛，並且分為不同的終端市場。當我們到達時，我稱之為高原，就像我們現在所處的那樣——軟著陸，正如你所說，你永遠不會保持平坦。會有一些產品因為發貨時間的原因進來的多一些，而一些發貨時間錯誤的進來的會少一些。

And in each quarter, we may show you differences, and we are showing some of it that differences in Q3 and some even in Q4. And that's largely related to logistics, timing of customer shipments, particular customers and a whole range of products that go this way. This one I referred in my remarks as revenues, which puts and takes around a median. And that median, I was at (inaudible) to highlight to you guys, has sit around $6 billion, and it has been sitting around $6 billion since the start of fiscal '23. And as we sit here in Q4, it's still at $6 billion. Now not quite there because there are some parts of it they may go up, some parts of it go down.

在每個季度，我們可能會向您展示差異，我們會在第三季度展示其中的一些差異，甚至在第四季度展示一些差異。這在很大程度上與物流、客戶發貨時間、特定客戶以及通過這種方式運輸的一系列產品有關。我在發言中將其稱為收入，它圍繞中位數進行計算。我（聽不清）向你們強調的這個中位數約為 60 億美元，自 23 財年開始以來一直約為 60 億美元。當我們第四季度時，它仍然是 60 億美元。現在還不完全是這樣，因為有些部分可能會上升，有些部分可能會下降。

And that's the puts and takes we talk about. And I hope that pretty much addresses what you are trying to get at, which is, is this -- what's -- the fact that is it a trend? Or is it just a flatter? And to use my expression, I call those flatters. Our puts and takes around a median that we're seeing here. And I wouldn't have said it if I'm not seeing it now for 3 quarters in a row, around $6 billion.

這就是我們談論的看漲期權和看跌期權。我希望這基本上能解決你想要了解的問題，即，這是——什麼——這是一種趨勢嗎？或者只是一種奉承？用我的表達方式來說，我稱這些為奉承者。我們的看跌期權和看跌期權圍繞著我們在這裡看到的中位數。如果不是現在連續三個季度看到大約 60 億美元的增長，我就不會這麼說。

One moment for our next question, and that will come from the line of Edward Snyder with Charter Equity Research.

現在我們的下一個問題將來自特許股票研究公司的愛德華·斯奈德 (Edward Snyder)。

Hock, I want to shift gears maybe a little bit here and talk about your expectations and actually indications from your customers about the integrated optics solutions that will start shipping next year. It seems to me by looking at what you're offering and the significant improvement you get over performance and size. This would be something of great interest. Is it limited by inertia or architectural inertia by the existing solutions? Or what kind of feedback you're getting? And why should we expect to see maybe enough because it's rather a new market for you overall. You've not been in it before. So I'm just trying to get a feel for what your expectations are and why maybe we should start looking at this more closely.

霍克，我想在這裡稍微改變一下態度，談談您的期望以及您的客戶對明年開始發貨的集成光學解決方案的實際指示。在我看來，通過查看您提供的產品以及您在性能和尺寸方面獲得的顯著改進。這將是一件非常有趣的事情。是否受到現有解決方案的慣性或架構慣性的限制？或者你得到什麼樣的反饋？為什麼我們應該期望看到也許足夠了，因為總體而言這對您來說是一個新市場。你以前沒有參與過。所以我只是想了解一下您的期望是什麼，以及為什麼我們應該開始更仔細地考慮這個問題。

You should. I didn't -- I mean my investment, at least you should look at it a bit. I'm just kidding. But we have invested in silicon photonics, which is, I mean, literally integrating in one single solution packaging. As an example, our switch, our next-generation Tomahawk 5 switch, which will start shipping middle of next year, what we call -- the program we call the Bailly, a fully integrated switch silicon photonic switch. And you're right, very low power, and it's -- you make optics have always have optical and mechanical characteristics by sucking them into an integrated silicon photonics solution. You take away this failures on yield rates on mechanical, optical and translated to a literally silicon yield rates.

你應該。我沒有——我的意思是我的投資，至少你應該看一下它。我只是在開玩笑。但我們已經投資了矽光子學，我的意思是，它實際上集成在一個解決方案封裝中。舉個例子，我們的交換機，我們的下一代 Tomahawk 5 交換機，將於明年年中開始發貨，我們稱之為 - 我們稱之為 Bailly 的程序，一種完全集成的矽光子開關。你是對的，非常低的功耗，通過將光學器件納入集成矽光子解決方案，您可以使光學器件始終具有光學和機械特性。您可以消除機械、光學良率上的失敗，並將其轉化為字面上的矽良率。

And so it's much -- we like to believe very reliable than the conventional approach. So your question is, so why won't more people jump in it? Well, because nobody else has done it. This -- we are pioneering this silicon photonic architecture. And we're going to pull. We have POC done, POC, proof of concept in selling Tomahawk 4 in a couple of hyperscale, but not in production volume. We now feel comfortable. We have reliability data from those instances. And that's why we feel comfortable to now go into production launch in Tomahawk 5.

因此，我們相信它比傳統方法更加可靠。所以你的問題是，為什麼沒有更多的人加入其中呢？嗯，因為沒有其他人這樣做過。我們正在開創這種矽光子架構。我們要拉。我們已經完成了 POC，POC，概念驗證，以在幾個超大規模中銷售 Tomahawk 4，但還沒有批量生產。我們現在感覺很舒服。我們有來自這些實例的可靠性數據。這就是為什麼我們現在很樂意在 Tomahawk 5 中投入生產。

But as people say, the proof is in the eating. And we will get it in 1 or 2 hyperscale who will demonstrate how efficient power-wise and effective it can be. And once we do that, we hope it will start to proliferate to other hyperscalers because they cannot do it. If one of them does it and reap the benefits of this silicon photonics solution, and it's there. You know it. I have indicated the power is simply enormous, 30%, 40% power reduction. And power is a big thing now in data centers, particularly, I would add, in generative AI data centers. That's a big use case that could come over the next couple of years.

但正如人們所說，證據就在吃中。我們將在 1 或 2 個超大規模中實現它，他們將展示它在功率方面的效率和有效性。一旦我們做到了這一點，我們希望它能夠開始擴散到其他超大規模企業，因為他們做不到。如果他們中的一個做到了這一點並獲得了這種矽光子解決方案的好處，那麼它就在那裡。你知道的。我已經說過功率簡直是巨大的，功率降低了30%、40%。我想補充一下，電力現在在數據中心中是一件大事，特別是在生成式人工智能數據中心中。這是未來幾年可能出現的一個大用例。

Thank you. Thank you all for participating in today's question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Ji Yoo for any closing remarks.

謝謝。感謝大家參加今天的問答環節。我現在想將電話轉給 Ji Yoo 女士，請她發表結束語。

Thank you, operator. In closing, we would like to highlight that Broadcom will be attending the Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference on Thursday, September 7. Broadcom currently plans to report its earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal '23 after close of market on Thursday, December 7, 2023.

謝謝你，接線員。最後，我們要強調的是，博通將於 9 月 7 日星期四參加高盛 Communacopia 和技術會議。博通目前計劃在 12 月 7 日星期四收市後公佈其 23 財年第四季度的收益，2023。

A public webcast of Broadcom's earnings conference call will follow at 2:00 p.m. Pacific. That will conclude our earnings call today. Thank you all for joining.

Broadcom 財報電話會議的公開網絡直播將於下午 2:00 舉行。太平洋。我們今天的財報電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。

Operator, you may end the call.

接線員，您可以結束通話了。

Thank you all for participating. This concludes today's program. You may now disconnect.

感謝大家的參與。今天的節目到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。