艾芙隆海灣社區公司 (AVB) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to AvalonBay Communities Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，下午好，歡迎參加 AvalonBay Communities 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）

Your host for today's conference call is Mr. Jason Reilley, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Reilley, you may begin your conference call.

今天電話會議的主持人是投資者關係副總裁 Jason Reilley 先生。雷利先生，您可以開始電話會議了。

Thank you, Sherry, and welcome to AvalonBay Communities Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Before we begin, please note that forward-looking statements may be made during this discussion. There are a variety of risks and uncertainties associated with forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially. There is a discussion of these risks and uncertainties in yesterday afternoon's press release as well as in the company's Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filed with the SEC.

謝謝你，雪莉，歡迎參加 AvalonBay Communities 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。在我們開始之前，請注意，本次討論中可能會出現前瞻性的陳述。前瞻性陳述涉及多種風險和不確定性，實際結果可能有重大差異。昨天下午的新聞稿以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表和 10-Q 表中討論了這些風險和不確定性。

As usual, the press release does include an attachment with definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures and other terms, which may be used in today's discussion. The attachment is also available on our website at www.avalonbay.com/earnings, and we encourage you to refer to this information during the review of our operating results and financial performance.

與往常一樣，新聞稿中確實包含一個附件，其中列出了非公認會計準則財務指標和其他術語的定義和對賬，可能會在今天的討論中使用。附件也可在我們的網站 www.avalonbay.com/earnings 上找到，我們鼓勵您在審查我們的經營業績和財務表現時參考這些資訊。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Ben Schall, CEO and President of AvalonBay Communities, for his remarks. Ben?

接下來，我將把電話轉給 AvalonBay Communities 執行長兼總裁 Ben Schall，請他發表評論。本？

Thank you, Jason, and thank you, everyone, for joining us. I will start with a brief synopsis of Q4 and 2024 results and then turn to our view of the strategic focus areas that we are confident will continue to deliver superior growth in 2025 and in the years ahead. Kevin O'Shea, our Chief Financial Officer, will provide our outlook for 2025 and the components of growth on a year-over-year basis. Sean Breslin, our Chief Operating Officer, will then cover the macro and micro setup for 2025 along with our latest market-by-market expectations. And Matt Birenbaum, our Chief Investment Officer, will discuss our rich menu of investment opportunities.

謝謝傑森，也謝謝大家加入我們。我將首先簡要介紹第四季和 2024 年的業績，然後談談我們對策略重點領域的看法，我們相信這些領域將在 2025 年及未來幾年繼續實現卓越成長。我們的財務長 Kevin O'Shea 將提供我們對 2025 年的展望以及同比增長的要素。我們的營運長 Sean Breslin 將介紹 2025 年的宏觀和微觀設定以及我們最新的市場預期。我們的首席投資長 Matt Birenbaum 將討論我們豐富的投資機會。

Let me start by expressing our condolences to those who lost loved ones in the L.A fires last month and to all those impacted by the horrific damage. While we were fortunate that none of our communities incurred meaningful damage, some of our associates were impacted, including a few who lost their homes.

首先，我要向上個月洛杉磯火災中失去親人的人們以及所有受到可怕損失影響的人們表示哀悼。雖然我們很幸運，我們的社區都沒有遭受重大損失，但我們的一些同事受到了影響，其中一些人失去了家園。

At Avalon Bay, in keeping with our core value of a spirit of caring, we activated our internal emergency relief programs to assist associates and provided incremental funding to our long-time partners at the American Red Cross. I also want to thank our wider LA-based residential services team led by Eric Asgard for their tireless efforts and dedication through these events.

在阿瓦隆灣，本著關懷精神的核心價值，我們啟動了內部緊急救援計劃來協助員工，並向我們在美國紅十字會的長期合作夥伴提供增量資金。我還要感謝 Eric Asgard 領導的位於洛杉磯的住宅服務團隊在這些活動中所做的不懈努力和奉獻。

As I look back on Q4 2024, we had a very successful year, delivering revenue growth of 3.4% and core FFO growth of 3.6%, as highlighted on slide 4. Our suburban coastal portfolio with steady demand and limited levels of new supply continue to outperform. Our operating model transformation drove incremental revenue and operating efficiencies, and our lease-ups exceeded expectations, driving incremental earnings and value creation.

回顧 2024 年第四季度，我們度過了非常成功的一年，實現了營收成長 3.4% 和核心 FFO 成長 3.6%，如投影片 4 所示。我們的郊區沿海投資組合需求穩定，新供應量有限，持續表現優異。我們的營運模式轉型推動了增量收入和營運效率的提高，我們的租賃量超出預期，推動了增量收益和價值創造。

We also remain nimble in capital allocation and sourcing during 2024. We increased our development starts by almost $200 million to $1.1 billion, and we proactively raised growth capital sourcing $2 billion of new capital at an attractive 5.1% initial cost.

2024 年期間，我們在資本配置和採購方面也將保持靈活的態度。我們的開發啟動資金增加了近 2 億美元，達到 11 億美元，我們積極籌集成長資本，以 5.1% 的頗具吸引力的初始成本獲得了 20 億美元的新資本。

As we head into 2025, we expect much of our operating and investment momentum to continue and are confident that our strategic focus areas, as outlined on slide 5, will continue to deliver superior internal and external growth for shareholders.

隨著我們邁入 2025 年，我們預計大部分營運和投資勢頭將繼續保持，並相信我們的策略重點領域（如第 5 頁所述）將繼續為股東帶來卓越的內部和外部成長。

Slide 6 details our successes and key next steps in our operating model transformation. As of year-end 2024, we're generating an incremental $39 million of NOI from these initiatives, running $2 million ahead of plan. In 2025, we expect to generate an additional $9 million of revenue and operating efficiencies and we are well on our way to our updated goal of $80 million of annual incremental NOI over the next few years.

投影片 6 詳細介紹了我們在營運模式轉型方面的成功以及後續關鍵步驟。截至 2024 年底，這些措施將為我們帶來 3,900 萬美元的新增淨營運收入，比計劃提前 200 萬美元。到 2025 年，我們預計將額外創造 900 萬美元的收入和提高營運效率，並且我們正在朝著未來幾年每年增加 8,000 萬美元淨營運收入的最新目標邁進。

We continue to be one of the industry leaders in the utilization of centralized services which is now handling more customer-facing interactions, including an expansion this year to provide centralized leasing support. We also continue to be on the forefront in the use of AI in the apartment industry, having been an early investor and adopter of a lease AI and with a further expansion this year into additional components of the customer journey.

我們繼續成為集中服務利用的行業領導者之一，目前正在處理更多面向客戶的互動，包括今年擴展以提供集中租賃支援。我們也繼續走在公寓產業人工智慧應用的前沿，作為租賃人工智慧的早期投資者和採用者，今年我們進一步擴展到客戶旅程的其他組成部分。

Our investments in technology and centralized services, along with the efficiencies we achieve in managing clusters of assets are providing meaningful scale benefits for our platform and driving incremental NOI throughout the existing portfolio. As investors, you can see these results in various financial categories. For example, our implementation of ancillary services for residents resulted in 15% other rental revenue growth in 2024 and is projected to produce almost 9% growth in 2025.

我們對技術和集中服務的投資，以及我們在管理資產集群方面所取得的效率，為我們的平台提供了有意義的規模效益，並推動了整個現有投資組合中增量的淨營運收益。作為投資者，您可以在各個金融類別中看到這些結果。例如，我們為居民提供的輔助服務使得2024年其他租金收入增加了15%，預計2025年將成長近9%。

In the area of labor efficiencies, our same-store payroll expense declined in 2023 and was zero in 2024. I'd like to thank our operating teams for their continued execution of these initiatives and delivering these results. Importantly, the benefits we're generating via our operating initiatives also facilitate external growth with new assets more valuable on our platform, allowing us to underwrite incremental yield on acquisitions and new development.

在勞動效率方面，我們的同店薪資支出在 2023 年下降，並在 2024 年為零。我要感謝我們的營運團隊持續執行這些措施並取得這些成果。重要的是，我們透過營運計畫產生的收益也促進了外部成長，平台上的新資產更值錢，使我們能夠承保收購和新開發的增量收益。

Slide 7 highlights our continued progress in optimizing our portfolio for superior growth. In the near term, our conviction for our suburban coaster portfolio is reinforced by the outlook for both steady demand and limited new supply.

投影片 7 重點介紹了我們在優化投資組合以實現卓越成長方面取得的持續進展。短期內，穩定的需求和有限的新供應的前景增強了我們對郊區過山車投資組合的信心。

In the medium to longer term, we also believe that our suburban coastal portfolio is well positioned to capture future rental demand and particularly the lifestyle preferences of many aging millennials and downsizing baby boomers. We're now 73% suburban, up from 70% just a year ago, making strong progress toward our 80% target allocation.

從中長期來看，我們也相信，我們的沿海郊區投資組合能夠很好地滿足未來的租賃需求，尤其是許多老化的千禧世代和縮小規模的嬰兒潮世代的生活方式偏好。目前，我們的郊區覆蓋率為 73%，高於一年前的 70%，朝著 80% 的目標分配邁出了堅實的一步。

We're also focused on further optimizing our portfolio by increasing exposure to select Sunbelt markets and submarkets as we detailed at our Investor Day, an increasing number of Avalon Bay customers live in these markets, and we also see the benefits of diversifying away from certain risks, including increasing our exposure to areas with less regulatory risk.

我們也致力於透過增加對特定陽光地帶市場和子市場的曝險來進一步優化我們的投資組合，正如我們在投資者日詳細介紹的那樣，越來越多的阿瓦隆灣客戶生活在這些市場，我們也看到了分散投資於某些風險的好處，包括增加我們對監管風險較低的地區的敞口。

We increased our expansion market presence to 10% from 8% in 2024, and we expect to make further progress toward our 25% expansion market target in 2025 and believe that we're in an attractive window to facilitate this portfolio shift by acquiring and developing assets at a cost basis, meaningfully lower than it has been over the past few years.

我們將擴張市場的佔有率從 2024 年的 8% 提高到 10%，並預計在 2025 年向 25% 的擴張市場目標邁進，並相信我們正處於一個有吸引力的窗口期，可以透過以成本基礎收購和開發資產來促進這一投資組合的轉變，這一成本基礎明顯低於過去幾年的水平。

Our third strategic focus area, as referenced on slide 8, is continuing to leverage our unique development capabilities to generate consistent and accretive external growth. In 2025, we are planning to increase development starts to $1.6 billion at a point in time when overall starts in the industry will be coming down, allowing us to secure stronger deals and returns. These developments will also face less competition when they lease up in roughly two years' time.

如第 8 頁投影片中所提到的，我們的第三個策略重點領域是繼續利用我們獨特的發展能力來實現持續、增值的外部成長。2025 年，我們計劃將開發啟動資金增加到 16 億美元，屆時整個產業啟動資金將會下降，這使我們能夠獲得更強大的交易和回報。大約兩年後，這些開發案在租賃時面臨的競爭也會減少。

By the end of this year, we expect to have $3.5 billion under construction, which is 50% higher than where we are today, setting the stage for a further uplift in earnings growth and value creation in 2026 and 2027. We plan to fund the bulk of this new development from the equity capital that we proactively secured last year as highlighted on slide 9.

到今年年底，我們預計將有 35 億美元的建設資金，比現在高出 50%，為 2026 年和 2027 年進一步提高獲利成長和價值創造奠定基礎。正如第 9 頁所強調的，我們計劃利用去年積極獲得的股本為該新開發項目提供大部分資金。

In total, we sourced via equity forwards $890 million of equity at an average price of $226 per share at an initial cost of around 5% and providing a 100-plus basis point spread to our expected development yields on new projects. Our balance sheet is as strong as it's ever been, which provides the capital to leverage our strategic capabilities to fuel further growth in 2025 and beyond.

總體而言，我們透過股權遠期獲得了 8.9 億美元的股權，平均價格為每股 226 美元，初始成本約為 5%，並為新專案預期開發收益率提供了 100 多個基點的利差。我們的資產負債表一如既往地強勁，這為利用我們的策略能力推動2025年及以後的進一步成長提供了資本。

And with that, I'll turn it to Kevin to discuss our initial 2025 outlook.

接下來我將請凱文 (Kevin) 討論我們對 2025 年的初步展望。

Thanks, Ben. On slide 10, we provide our operating financial outlook for 2025. For the year, using the midpoint of guidance, we expect 3.5% growth in core FFO per share, driven by our same-store portfolio and by stabilizing development partially offset by the impact of funding costs associated with capital markets and transaction activity. At our same-store residential portfolio, we expect revenue growth of 3%, operating expense growth of 4.1% and NOI growth of 2.4% for the year.

謝謝，本。在投影片 10 上，我們提供了 2025 年的營運財務展望。對於今年，以指引中位數計算，我們預計每股核心 FFO 將成長 3.5%，這主要得益於我們的同店組合和穩定的發展，但部分抵消了與資本市場和交易活動相關的融資成本的影響。在我們的同店住宅組合中，我們預計今年收入將成長 3%，營業費用成長 4.1%，淨營業收入成長 2.4%。

For development, we expect new development starts of about $1.6 billion this year and we expect to generate $30 million in residential NOI from development communities currently under construction and undergoing lease-up during 2025. As for our capital plan, our outlook calls for $2.1 billion of capital uses consisting of $1.3 billion of investment spend and $835 million for debt maturities and amortization. In terms of sources, we anticipate raising new capital of $960 million in 2025, which we currently assume be sourced from the unsecured debt issuance later this year.

在開發方面，我們預計今年新開發案的開工金額約為 16 億美元，並且我們預計 2025 年將從目前正在建設和租賃的開發社區中產生 3000 萬美元的住宅 NOI。至於我們的資本計劃，我們預計資本用途為 21 億美元，其中包括 13 億美元的投資支出和 8.35 億美元的債務到期和攤提。在來源方面，我們預計 2025 年將籌集 9.6 億美元的新資本，目前我們假設這些資金將來自今年稍後發行的無擔保債務。

Additionally, we expect to sell our outstanding forward equity contracts to source an incremental $890 million in 2025, which brings total capital to be sourced to $1.85 billion this year. We also expect to generate about $450 million in free cash flow after dividends in 2025. And as a result of this capital plan, we project unrestricted cash at year-end 2025 of about $275 million.

此外，我們預計將在 2025 年出售未償還的遠期股票合約，以獲得 8.9 億美元的增量資金，這使今年的總資本籌集額達到 18.5 億美元。我們也預計 2025 年派發股息後將產生約 4.5 億美元的自由現金流。根據這項資本計劃，我們預計 2025 年底的無限制現金將達到約 2.75 億美元。

On slide 11, we illustrate the components of our expected 3.5% growth in core FFO per share to project $11.39 per share in 2025 from $11.01 per share in 2024. We expect $0.31 per share of earnings growth to come from NOI growth in our same-store and redevelopment portfolios. -- and we expect another $0.33 per share of earnings growth to come from NOI from new investment, primarily from development.

在投影片 11 中，我們說明了預計每股核心 FFO 成長 3.5% 的組成部分，預計 2025 年每股核心 FFO 將從 2024 年的每股 11.01 美元增至 11.39 美元。我們預計每股收益 0.31 美元的成長將來自於同店和重建投資組合的淨營運收入成長。 ——我們預計每股收益的另外 0.33 美元成長將來自新投資（主要來自開發）的淨營運收入。

Partially offsetting these sources of growth is an increase of $0.29 per share from capital markets activity. Within this bucket, we have called out on the slide the components of capital markets costs, including lower interest income of $0.13 per share as our projected cash positions will be lower on a year-over-year basis in 2025. And an $0.08 impact from higher share count as we sell our equity forward contracts over the course of this year in connection with match funding development starts.

資本市場活動帶來的每股 0.29 美元的成長部分抵消了這些成長來源。在這個桶內，我們在幻燈片中列出了資本市場成本的組成部分，包括每股 0.13 美元的較低利息收入，因為我們預計 2025 年的現金頭寸將同比下降。由於我們今年在配套資金開發開始後出售股票遠期合約，因此股票數量增加將帶來 0.08 美元的影響。

These two items combined for $0.21 of the $0.29 from costs from capital markets activities. As for the remaining $0.08 of costs from capital markets activity, these consist of modest headwinds from refinancing existing debt and net disposition activities, partially offset by modestly higher capitalized interest and earnings growth from [sif] activity.

這兩項合計佔資本市場活動成本 0.29 美元中的 0.21 美元。至於來自資本市場活動的剩餘 0.08 美元的成本，這些成本包括來自再融資現有債務和淨處置活動的適度阻力，部分被來自 [sif] 活動的適度更高的資本化利息和收益增長所抵消。

So with that summary of our outlook, I'll turn it over to Sean to discuss our operating business.

因此，在總結了我們的前景後，我將把主題交給肖恩來討論我們的營運業務。

All right. Thanks, Kevin. Moving to slide 12 and the outlook for apartment demand in 2025. Third-party forecasts reflect a moderating, but healthy environment for job and wage growth, with wage growth specifically in the high 3% range, which should support relatively stable effective rent growth throughout the year.

好的。謝謝，凱文。前往第 12 張投影片，了解 2025 年公寓需求的前景。第三方預測反映出就業和薪資成長環境雖然放緩但仍健康，其中薪資成長率具體在3%的高位，這應該能支持全年相對穩定的實際租金成長。

For our portfolio, specifically, we're also likely to benefit from the expected increase in job growth in two important sectors, professional services and information, which over-index to our established regions and produce above average wages. Growth in these sectors was relatively weak in 2024, but is expected to rebound nicely in 2025.

具體來說，就我們的投資組合而言，我們也可能受益於兩個重要產業——專業服務和資訊——的預期就業成長，這兩個產業的指數高於我們現有的地區，且產生的薪資高於平均水平。2024 年這些產業的成長相對較弱，但預計 2025 年將強勁反彈。

Turning to slide 13. Demand for apartments in our established regions will continue to be supported by two other important factors: first, somewhat stable rent-to-income ratios which remained below pre-Covid levels given healthy income growth the last few years and indicate rental affordability in our coastal markets shouldn't be a material issue.

翻到第 13 張投影片。我們成熟地區的公寓需求將繼續受到另外兩個重要因素的支撐：首先，租金收入比相對穩定，鑑於過去幾年收入健康增長，該比率仍低於新冠疫情之前的水平，表明我們沿海市場的租金負擔能力應該不會成為一個重大問題。

And second, the relatively unaffordable nature for sale housing in our established regions. Currently, renters looking to trade into the median-priced home in our established regions, but experienced a cost increase of more than 2,000 per month relative to the median price department, and that excludes the ever-rising cost of ensuring that home, which has risen materially over the last few years.

其次，我們成熟地區的房屋售價相對較高。目前，租屋者希望租到我們既定地區的中價位房屋，但相對於中等價位房屋，每月的成本上漲超過 2,000 美元，這還不包括不斷上漲的確保住房的成本，而這一成本在過去幾年中大幅上漲。

Pivoting to slide 14 and the outlook for supply, our established regions are expected to see the lowest level of supply as compared to both US overall and the Sunbelt with new deliveries representing just 1.4% of stock. And when you look at our suburban submarkets, we're roughly three-quarters of our same-store portfolio is located. The story is even better as suburban deliveries are only forecast to be 1.2% of stock in 2025.

轉向第 14 張幻燈片和供應前景，與美國整體和陽光地帶相比，我們已建立的地區預計供應水準最低，新交付僅佔庫存的 1.4%。當您查看我們的郊區子市場時，您會發現大約四分之三的同店組合都位於此處。故事更加精彩，因為預計到 2025 年郊區交付量僅佔庫存的 1.2%。

Additionally, as we look beyond the current year, it's important to remember that it can often take years to get a new development entitled in our suburban coastal markets. So we may experience low levels of new supply in these regions for an extended period of time.

此外，當我們展望今年之後，重要的是要記住，在我們的郊區沿海市場，一個新開發項目往往需要數年時間才能獲得批准。因此，這些地區的新增供應量可能會長期處於較低水準。

Moving to slide 15 and our outlook for 2025 revenue growth. There are three primary drivers of our expected 3% increase in same-store total rental revenue growth. First, higher lease rates, which reflects our embedded growth from last year and our forecast for like-term effective rent change of 3% for the calendar year 2025.

轉到第 15 張投影片，我們對 2025 年營收成長的展望。我們預計同店總租金收入將成長 3%，主要有三個驅動因素。首先，租賃利率上升，這反映了我們去年的內在成長以及我們對 2025 日曆年同期有效租金變動 3% 的預測。

Second, strong growth in other rental revenue, which is estimated at almost 9% in 2025 as we continue to deploy various operating initiatives; and third, improvement in uncollectible lease revenue from residents which is forecast to decline by approximately 40 basis points from 1.8% in 2024 to 1.4% in 2025.

第二，其他租金收入強勁成長，隨著我們持續部署各種營運舉措，預計到 2025 年其他租金收入將成長近 9%；第三，來自居民的壞帳租賃收入有所改善，預計將從 2024 年的 1.8% 下降至 2025 年的 1.4%，下降約 40 個基點。

Turning to slide 16. Our established coastal regions are expected to produce rental revenue growth north of 3%, while the expansion regions are projected to deliver sub-2% growth its heavy levels of unleased inventory from 2024 and new deliveries in 2025, continue to weigh on near-term performance.

翻到第 16 張投影片。我們現有的沿海地區預計租金收入將成長 3% 以上，而擴張地區的成長率預計將低於 2%，因為 2024 年起的大量未出租庫存和 2025 年的新交付將繼續對近期業績造成壓力。

In our established regions, the Mid-Atlantic is projected to lead with mid-4% revenue growth followed by Seattle in the low 3s, Northern and Southern California at roughly 3%; and then New York, New Jersey and Boston in the mid-2% range.

在我們已建立的地區中，預計大西洋中部地區將以 4% 左右的收入成長率領先，其次是西雅圖，成長率為 3% 以下，北加州和南加州的成長率約為 3%；接下來是紐約、新澤西和波士頓，漲幅都在 2% 左右。

Moving to the outlook for operating expense growth on slide 17. We expect same-store operating expense growth of 4.1%, consisting of an organic growth rate of 3% and the net impact of profitable operating initiatives, adding 50 basis points and the phase out of property tax abatement programs, most notably in New York City, adding another 60 basis points during 2025.

前往第 17 頁的營業費用成長前景。我們預計同店營業費用將成長 4.1%，其中包括 3% 的有機成長率和獲利營運計畫的淨影響，增加 50 個基點，以及逐步取消財產稅減免計畫（最明顯的是在紐約市），在 2025 年再增加 60 個基點。

Additionally, we expect operating expense growth to be higher in the first half of the year as compared to the second half for several reasons, including year-over-year comp issues related to our Avalon Connect deployment, renewal for insurance in 2024 and merit adjustments for our associates, which will occur in the first half.

此外，我們預計上半年的營業費用增幅將高於下半年，原因有幾個，包括與我們的 Avalon Connect 部署相關的同比補償問題、2024 年的保險續保以及我們員工的績效調整，這些都將在上半年發生。

Now I'll turn it to Matt to address our investment activity for 2025.

現在我請馬特來談談我們 2025 年的投資活動。

All right. Thanks, Sean. Turning to slide 18. We are looking forward to an active year across our various external investment platforms this year, supported by the funding already in place from last year as indicated in Kevin's remarks. We expect to continue to ramp up our sector-leading development platform with $1.6 billion in new starts planned at yields in the low to mid-6s.

好的。謝謝，肖恩。翻到第 18 張投影片。正如凱文在發言中指出的，我們期待今年我們的各個外部投資平台能夠活躍起來，並得到去年已經到位的資金的支持。我們預計將繼續加強我們行業領先的開發平台，計劃新開工 16 億美元，收益率在 6% 到 6% 之間。

We also look to continue to be active in the transaction market with portfolio trading activity as we pursue our long-term portfolio allocation goals, selling assets out of our established coastal regions and redeploying that capital into acquisitions primarily in our expansion regions.

我們也希望繼續透過投資組合交易活動活躍於交易市場，以實現我們的長期投資組合配置目標，出售我們現有的沿海地區的資產，並將這些資本重新部署到主要在我們擴張地區的收購中。

Given the decline in operating fundamentals and associated asset values, in many of our expansion regions over the past two years, we do view this as a more attractive relative trade in the current environment, and we'll look to increase our portfolio trading where we can. In our structured investment program, or SIP, which is our [nez] lending platform to provide high-yield capital to merchant builders in our markets, we have continued to be highly selective and did not originate any new loans last year.

鑑於過去兩年我們許多擴張地區的營運基本面和相關資產價值下降，我們確實認為這在當前環境下是一種更具吸引力的相對交易，我們將在可能的情況下增加我們的投資組合交易。在我們的結構化投資計劃（SIP）中，這是我們的 [nez] 借貸平台，旨在為我們市場中的商人建築商提供高收益資本，我們繼續嚴格篩選，去年沒有發放任何新貸款。

However, we do several attractive opportunities in the current pipeline and expect to be able to grow this book of business from its current $190 million balance by another $75 million in 2025 as we advance towards our program goal size of $400 million in total. And we continue to grow value-add investment in our portfolio with highly accretive opportunities to add more resident solar, kitchen and bath renovations and accessory dwelling units in California.

然而，我們目前確實有幾個很有吸引力的機會，並且預計到 2025 年，這項業務的餘額將從目前的 1.9 億美元再增加 7500 萬美元，我們將朝著總計 4 億美元的計劃目標規模邁進。我們將繼續增加投資組合中的增值投資，為加州的居民提供更多增值機會，增加更多的太陽能、廚房和浴室裝修以及附屬住宅單元。

Slide 19 provides a bit more color on our development starts for the year. All are located in suburban submarkets and our less expensive wood frame construction with the volume concentrated in our expansion regions and in California. It has been exceedingly difficult to get the math to work for new starts on the West Coast for the past several years as reflected in the extremely low levels of supply in those markets. This should provide strong support for future performance for the over $500 million in new development we plan for Northern and Southern California in 2025.

投影片 19 詳細介紹了我們今年的開發起步。所有建築物均位於郊區子市場，而我們的較便宜的木結構建築主要集中在我們的擴張區域和加利福尼亞州。過去幾年，西海岸新房開工的計算極為困難，這反映在這些市場的供應水準極低。這將為我們計劃於 2025 年在北加州和南加州進行的超過 5 億美元的新開發項目的未來表現提供強有力的支持。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Ben to wrap things up.

現在，我將把時間交給本來結束討論。

Thanks, Matt. To recap on slide 20. 2024 was a very successful year for AvalonBay with the organization delivering strong financial and operating results. Going forward, we continue to execute against our strategic focus areas with a laser focus on delivering superior growth. Apartment fundamentals in 2025 continue to look favorable in our established regions. We have a rich menu of investment opportunities and have a balance sheet well positioned to pursue accretive opportunities.

謝謝，馬特。回顧幻燈片 20。2024 年對於 AvalonBay 來說是非常成功的一年，該組織取得了強勁的財務和營運表現。展望未來，我們將繼續針對我們的策略重點領域，全力實現卓越成長。2025 年，我們現有地區的公寓基本面依然看好。我們擁有豐富的投資機會，並且擁有良好的資產負債表，可以尋求增值機會。

And with that, I'll turn the call to the operator to facilitate questions.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給接線員，以便回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Eric Wolfe, Citibank.

（操作員指示）Eric Wolfe，花旗銀行。

How should we think about the development accretion you're going to see in earnings this year versus last year? Obviously, you have the capitalized costs moving higher, but not sure if there's an offset in terms of total increasing capital cost. So I was just trying to understand how you're thinking about the potential for earnings accretion this year versus last.

我們該如何看待今年與去年相比的獲利成長？顯然，資本化成本正在上升，但不確定總資本成本增加方面是否有抵銷。所以我只是想知道您如何看待今年與去年相比獲利成長的潛力。

Yes, Eric, this is Kevin. There's obviously a number of puts and takes that go into that calculation. We do have slightly higher capitalized interest this year about $0.06. On the other hand, we do have lower occupancies this year versus last. We have occupancy this year in our outlook about 3,000 units. Last year, it was about 2,200 units, so a little less of that. So -- and some of that occupancy fall off a little bit in the front half of this year.

是的，艾瑞克，這是凱文。顯然，這項計算需要考慮許多因素。今年我們的資本化利息確實略高了 0.06 美元。另一方面，今年的入住率確實比去年低。我們預計今年的入住率約為 3,000 套。去年，大約有 2,200 台，所以數量稍微少一些。因此 — — 今年上半年入住率有所下降。

So -- and there are other things going on as well. We've got, as you could see, lower cash levels, so lower interest income. And then also, we have the equity forward issuance this year, which will increase our share count relative to '24. And our expectation in regard to the equity forward is probably that's -- we're likely going to be pulling down those shares in the back half of the year.

所以——還有其他事情正在發生。正如您所看到的，我們的現金水平較低，因此利息收入也較低。此外，我們今年還有股票遠期發行，這將使我們的股票數量相對於 24 年有所增加。我們對股票未來的預期可能是──我們可能會在今年下半年降低這些股票的價格。

When you roll it all together, roughly, we anticipate about $0.15 of growth from our investment platforms, primarily from development, which is really kind of a few areas, the NOI from investment, $0.33 SIP net earnings growth, maybe around $0.03, higher cap interest about $0.06 and then partially offset by the lower interest income to $0.13. The share issuance under the forwards lighting sense and probably another $0.06 attributable to the net dispositions that we use from the development activity. So that's how you get to the $0.15, give or take. And that's about 120 basis points of growth all in -- so that's one way to sort of look at that's how we take a look at that issue.

如果將所有這些加在一起，粗略地講，我們預計投資平台的增長幅度約為 0.15 美元，主要來自開發，這實際上涉及幾個領域，投資的淨收益、0.33 美元的 SIP 淨收益增長，可能在 0.03 美元左右，較高的上限利息約為 0.06 美元，然後部分被降至較低的利息收入所抵消，降至 0.13 美元。依照遠期照明意義下的股票發行，以及可能另外 0.06 美元歸因於我們從開發活動中使用的淨處置。這就是你得到 0.15 美元左右的結果。這大約是 120 個基點的成長——這是我們看待這個問題的一種方式。

And you've talked about continuing to deploy capital in the BPR product, like given the larger units and in suburban locations. I guess are there any additional challenges to developing or operating those communities that you've seen thus far versus more traditional multifamily -- to the extent that there's some portfolios that are being marketed products that the kin to what you would develop, would you be willing to take a look at those?

您談到了繼續在 BPR 產品中部署資本，例如在更大的單位和郊區部署資本。我想，與更傳統的多戶社群相比，開發或經營您迄今為止看到的這些社群是否還面臨其他挑戰？

Yes, Eric, it's Matt. To the extent that there are portfolios that are aligned with our strategic priorities, we would absolutely take a look at them. I will tell you, as it relates to BTR, a lot of what's been built to date has been in tertiary markets or in pretty far flung kind of third ring suburbs of our major markets. So not a lot has been out there.

是的，艾瑞克，我是馬特。如果有與我們的策略重點相符的投資組合，我們絕對會考慮它們。我會告訴你，就 BTR 而言，迄今為止已建成的大部分建築都位於三級市場或距離我們主要市場相當遠的三環郊區。因此，目前為止還沒有太多的資訊。

We did buy one asset last quarter in Austin, they kind of checked all those boxes. It was 100% three- and four-bedroom townhomes. And we -- so we expect -- we will probably grow more of that product through either DFP where we're funding kind of middle-market builder developers of the product or building more of it ourselves.

上個季度我們確實在奧斯汀購買了一項資產，他們滿足了所有這些條件。這些聯排別墅全部都是三房和四房。我們預計，我們可能會透過 DFP 來增加該產品的數量，在 DFP 中，我們會為該產品的中端市場開發商提供資金，或者我們自己開發更多該產品。

We have a number of communities we expect to start this year that are garden to have townhome components to them as well. We started one of those last year as well in Austin. So that's more likely to be the case, but we're certainly open to it.

我們預計今年將啟動多個帶有花園和聯排別墅的社區建設。我們去年也在奧斯汀開始了其中一個。所以這種情況更有可能發生，但我們當然對此持開放態度。

And on the operating side, we don't really have enough history of operating 100% VTR communities to speak to it yet. Again, we do have several thousand townhomes in mixed communities within our own portfolio, and I'm not sure the profile of those has been materially different.

在營運方面，我們實際上還沒有足夠的營運 100% VTR 社區的歷史來談論這一點。再說一次，我們自己的投資組合中確實有數千套位於混合社區的聯排別墅，我不確定這些別墅的狀況是否有實質差異。

I don't know, Sean, if you want to?

我不知道，肖恩，你願意嗎？

Yes. The only thing I would add, really, Eric, is if you think about the way people operate BTR, particularly for these smaller communities, there are 100 to 150 units. It's typically not dedicated to there's a maintenance team, there's a sales team. They rove around from community to community. It's more where the multifamily industry and for us specifically have been moving over the last two or three years is to have a more mobile-enabled flexible workforce. So I think it's pretty well aligned to the extent that the assets, to Matt's point, or with any reasonable proximity of sort of core multifamily assets, it makes it relatively easy for us to operate those.

是的。艾瑞克，我真正想補充的是，如果你考慮人們經營 BTR 的方式，特別是對於這些較小的社區，那裡有 100 到 150 個單位。通常它不是專門設有維修團隊，而是設有銷售團隊。他們從一個社區遊蕩到另一個社區。更重要的是，多戶型住宅產業，尤其是我們，在過去的兩三年裡一直在努力擁有一支更具移動能力的靈活勞動力。因此，我認為就資產的程度而言，就像馬特所說的那樣，或與核心多戶型資產的任何合理接近性，這讓我們相對容易地經營這些資產。

James Feldman, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的詹姆斯·費爾德曼。

Can you provide more color on your thoughts on new renewal -- new renewal leases and what the trajectory looks like throughout the year. If you look at slide 12 of the presentation, it shows a meaningful tick up sequentially in the job outlook, employment outlook. So I'm just wondering -- are you assuming a similar acceleration into 4Q on blends as you did in last year?

您能否更詳細地闡述您對新續約的看法—新的續約租約以及全年的發展軌跡。如果你看一下簡報的第 12 張投影片，你會發現，就業前景和就業前景連續出現了有意義的上升。所以我只是想知道——您是否認為第四季度混合物的增長速度會與去年類似？

Yes. Jim, this is Sean. I'm happy to take that one. So yes, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we're expecting like-term effective rent change to average 3% for the year. To your point, we are expecting slightly stronger growth in the second half of the year as compared to the first half of the year, which is actually the opposite of what occurred in 2024.

是的。吉姆，這是肖恩。我很高興接受這個。是的，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們預計今年同期有效租金平均變化率為 3%。正如您所說，我們預計下半年的成長將略強於上半年，這實際上與 2024 年的情況相反。

Combination of different factors influencing that in terms of year-over-year comp issues, more declines in supply expected in the second half of the year as opposed to the first half of the year, and various other things. So slightly better growth in the second half of the year is the way to be thinking about it today.

就同​​比問題而言，各種不同因素綜合作用，預計下半年供應量將比上半年下降更多，還有其他各種因素。因此，今天我們應該考慮下半年經濟成長略有改善。

Okay. But -- so can you provide more granularity on what you're thinking on new leases versus renewal and then specifically in 4Q this tends to be the seasonal slowdown. Is that -- are you still expecting a pick like -- I know in 4Q, you expected inflection higher didn't play out. Are you thinking something similar this year?

好的。但是 - 您能否更詳細地說明您對新租約與續約的看法，具體來說，在第四季度，這往往是季節性放緩。那是 — — 您是否仍期待這樣的選擇 — — 我知道在第四季度，您預期的更高拐點並沒有實現。今年您是否考慮過類似的事情？

Yes. So for the full year, the expectation is that renewals will average probably in the mid-4s and new move-ins will average kind of mid-1% range. And then as it relates to the first quarter, consistent with sort of historical norms, we would expect sequential improvement as we move through the first quarter into the prime leasing season. So as it relates to Q4, we did have slightly softer rates on both new move-ins and renewals given slightly lower occupancy. But net-net, it wasn't terribly material, given the volume of leases is pretty light during those two months.

是的。因此，就全年而言，預計續約率平均可能在 4% 左右，新入住率平均在 1% 左右。與第一季相比，與歷史規範一致，我們預計，隨著第一季進入主要租賃季節，情況將出現連續改善。因此，就第四季度而言，由於入住率略有下降，我們的新入住和續約利率確實略有下降。但整體而言，這並不是什麼大問題，因為這兩個月的租賃量相當少。

Okay. And then I guess just sticking with the 4Q result. I mean were there any markets that surprised you? I'm looking at what you provided in the earnings release, I think just Denver seemed like it really rolled over November, December, nothing else seemed to really stand out. So can you provide just more color on what played out differently than you expected or if there's any markets that caught you off guard?

好的。然後我想就堅持第四季的結果吧。我的意思是有沒有什麼市場令你感到驚訝？我正在看你在收益報告中提供的內容，我認為只有丹佛的表現似乎在 11 月和 12 月真正有所好轉，其他情況似乎沒有什麼特別突出的。那麼，您能否詳細說明哪些情況與您的預期不同，或者是否存在令您措手不及的市場狀況？

Yes. So as you pointed out, I mean, Denver was the only one that's maybe a little bit of a surprise. I mean I think if you think of the fourth quarter, one thing to keep in mind here is, on a net basis, it was not terribly material. We're talking about the Q4 shortfall was about $700,000 on $670 million of revenue.

是的。所以正如你所指出的，我的意思是，丹佛是唯一一個可能有點驚訝的城市。我的意思是，如果你考慮第四季度，你需要記住的一件事是，從淨值來看，它並不是很重要。我們談論的是第四季度的缺口約為 70 萬美元，而收入為 6.7 億美元。

And for the full year, total rent revenue growth was like 3.42%. So it was up 3 or 4 basis points from what we originally anticipated. So -- the primary driver being, as I mentioned, slightly higher -- excuse me, vacancy than we anticipated, which did impact the move-in of renewal rates across most of the markets as we move through November and December. So net-net, not a material number, but at the margin, when you have a small sample size of leases, it can move the rent change calculation.

全年總租金收入成長率為3.42%。因此，它比我們最初預期的高出 3 到 4 個基點。因此，正如我所提到的那樣，主要的驅動因素是空置率略高，對不起，比我們預期的要高，這確實影響了 11 月和 12 月大多數市場的續約率。因此，淨值不是一個實質性的數字，而是在邊際上，當您擁有少量租賃樣本時，它可以移動租金變化的計算。

Okay. So it sounds like your outlook in each of the market hasn't really changed.

好的。所以聽起來你對每個市場的展望似乎並沒有真正改變。

No. No, I'd say -- like I said, it was a little bit of a rounding error in Q4, but the fundamental outlook for 2025 is intact.

不。不，我想說——就像我說的，這是第四季的一個小小的捨入誤差，但 2025 年的基本前景是完好的。

Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

KeyBanc 資本市場部的 Austin Wurschmidt。

Just curious if you guys at maybe if you've seen any pickup in the transaction market and just how that's kind of playing into your ability to use the disposition capital to rotate into the expansion markets and whether you still expect to be net neutral on the buy-sell side this year?

我只是好奇，你們是否看到交易市場有所回暖，這對你們利用處置資本輪換到擴張市場的能力有何影響，以及你們是否仍然預計今年買賣方面將保持淨中立？

Yes, Austin. So the transaction market has been pretty volatile, I would say. We did see a pretty significant pickup in Q4, fourth quarter multifamily closings were up quite a bit over fourth quarter of '23 and over the third quarter. But almost all of that business was deals that priced before when the tenure was closer to 4% than 4.5%.

是的，奧斯汀。所以我想說交易市場一直都非常不穩定。我們確實看到第四季出現了相當顯著的成長，第四季多戶型住宅成交量比23年第四季和第三季有相當大幅度的成長。但幾乎​​所有這些業務都是在利率接近 4% 而非 4.5% 時定價的交易。

And so what we see is any time that the 10-year starts to get down towards that level, transaction volume starts to pick up because there is a lot of capital that's still on the sidelines. But when you see rates move back up to where they are today, the volume comes back down again because cap rates for most of these assets are trading still below the debt rates -- and there's just limited buyers that will fit that profile.

因此，我們看到，每當 10 年期公債開始跌向該水準時，交易量就會開始回升，因為仍有大量資本處於觀望狀態。但當你看到利率回升​​至今天的水平時，交易量就會再次下降，因為大多數此類資產的資本化利率仍然低於債務利率——而且符合這一條件的買家有限。

So we saw a number of larger deals closed in Q4. I would expect Q1 to be much quieter. We just had the big NMHC conference if you ask people 90 days ago, they would have said there's going to be all these listings come out and they then all geared up. Now they came out and they all said, yeah, maybe second half. There needs to be some more stability in debt rates for the market to pick back up.

因此我們看到第四季完成了許多較大的交易。我預計第一季會安靜得多。如果你在 90 天前問人們，他們就會說我們剛剛召開了大型 NMHC 會議，所有這些清單都會公佈，然後他們就做好了一切準備。現在他們出來了，他們都說，是的，也許是下半場。債務利率需要更穩定，市場才能回升。

For us, we actually last year wound up being a net seller of a couple of hundred million. That was not our expectation. We thought at midyear that we were going to be net neutral. So we didn't we did get more sold than we expected relative to what we bought.

對我們來說，我們去年實際上淨賣出了數億美元。那不是我們的期望。我們在年中就想過要實現網路中立。因此，相對於我們所購買的數量，我們的銷售量並沒有超出預期。

So we start the year and we have a couple of dispos currently working in the market that we expect to close here in Q1. So we start the year with a little bit of a head start on our trading activity. So we do think that we have some spending money, so to speak. And we are looking to be more active understanding though that the limit is -- is there enough for sale that we would want to buy. And that has yet to be seen because we are selective in terms of what fits our box.

因此，我們從年初開始，目前我們在市場上有幾個處置項目，我們預計將在第一季完成。因此，我們在年初就稍微領先其他公司的交易活動。所以我們確實認為我們有一些可以花的錢，可以這麼說。我們希望更積極地了解限制因素——是否有足夠的商品可供銷售以供我們購買。但這還沒有發生，因為我們會選擇性地選擇適合我們盒子的東西。

So I guess, I mean, is the approach to continue to kind of have assets teed up to give you that buying power to the extent that the market does free up and you see opportunities arise. And I guess, I mean, how do you kind of take advantage of where the balance sheet is today with the forward equity available to fund development, stock price is at a level you guys have been willing to issue some equity.

所以我想，我的意思是，這種方法就是繼續準備好資產，以便在市場真正開放並且出現機會時，為你提供購買力。我想，我的意思是，您如何利用當前的資產負債表，利用可用於資助開發的遠期股權，以及股票價格處於您願意發行一些股權的水平。

And clearly, there's fundamental improvement ahead over the next few years within those expansion markets. So just curious how you're thinking about all the different sources and uses and whether you'd be willing to look at other sources of capital if the disposition markets remains volatile.

顯然，未來幾年這些擴張市場將會出現根本性的改善。所以只是好奇您如何看待所有不同的來源和用途，以及如果處置市場仍然不穩定，您是否願意尋找其他資金來源。

Yes. I'll speak to that a little bit and Kevin may want to chime in as well. But yes, so the first thing is we are not counting on the disposition market to fund our development. We're looking to grow development significantly this year, and that is being funded primarily through the equity forward that was sourced last year and through free cash flow. So again, we're starting from a good place where we're a little ahead on our dispose relative to our acquisitions.

是的。我會稍微談一下這個問題，凱文可能也想加入討論。但是的，所以首先我們不指望處置市場來資助我們的發展。我們希望今年能大幅增加發展，資金主要來自去年獲得的股權遠期收益和自由現金流。所以，我們再次從一個好的起點開始，相對於我們的收購，我們的處置略有領先。

And yes, to the extent that we see more -- we continue to see buying opportunities. We're hoping we can increase our asset trading to roughly $1 billion on both sides, both buying and selling this year. And to the extent we see the buying opportunities we like.

是的，只要我們看到更多，我們就會繼續看到購買機會。我們希望今年我們的買賣雙方資產交易額能增加到約 10 億美元。在某種程度上，我們看到了我們喜歡的購買機會。

And you're right, the basis is getting pretty interesting. We can certainly use some of the dispos we've already prefunded so to speak. We will pull more disco assets off the bench and then we can also consider other sources of capital to the extent the yields that were appealing.

你說得對，基礎變得非常有趣。我們當然可以使用一些我們已經預先資助的處置設備。我們將從替補席上撤出更多的迪斯可資產，然後我們還可以考慮其他資本來源，以獲得有吸引力的收益率。

Yes, Austin, this is Kevin. Maybe just to add a couple of things. I think you're looking at it the right way in Matt's comments tie into that. I mean we are in a strong position from a financial point of view, we've got a lot of capacity to lean into opportunities should they make sense to do so. Naturally, we need to look at sort of the incremental return relative to our funding costs. And given where debt rates are, that does narrow the opportunity set somewhat.

是的，奧斯汀，這是凱文。也許只是添加一些東西。我認為你以正確的方式看待了馬特的評論。我的意思是，從財務角度來看，我們處於強勢地位，只要有必要，我們有足夠的能力去抓住機會。當然，我們需要考慮相對於融資成本的增量回報。考慮到債務利率的現狀，這確實會在一定程度上縮小機會範圍。

But I think what that really speaks to is not only our capacity to be flexible, but having a mindset of being nimble and responding to opportunities not only in the investment market, but also the capital markets to try to create that spread so that what we can deliver is a cost-effective capital to the investment uses that kind of move us down the field towards our strategic objectives in terms of portfolio positioning and funding development.

但我認為這實際上不僅說明了我們具有靈活的能力，而且具有敏捷的思維方式，不僅要抓住投資市場中的機遇，還要抓住資本市場中的機遇，努力創造這種利差，以便我們可以為投資用途提供具有成本效益的資本，從而使我們在投資組合定位和資金發展方面朝著我們的戰略目標邁進。

And also, I'll add a third area of emphasis, which is increasingly, as we think about opportunities, we also want to bring our strategic capabilities to bear and particularly the operating model initiatives. We're now in our underwriting on specific new acquisitions and new developments to the tune of 30 to 40 basis points of incremental yield by having those assets on our platform.

此外，我還要補充第三個重點領域，當我們考慮機會時，我們也希望發揮我們的策略能力，特別是營運模式舉措。目前，我們正在對特定的新收購和新開發項目進行承保，透過將這些資產放在我們的平台上，可以帶來 30 到 40 個基點的增量收益。

And I also emphasize that we're now at a point in most of our expansion markets where we've got our teams in place, we've got the density of assets starting to build up, where I really do feel like we're at the point where we can leverage those investments we've been making over the last four or five years to step into further growth.

我還要強調的是，我們現在在大多數擴張市場中都處於這樣一個階段：我們的團隊已經到位，資產密度也開始增加，我確實覺得我們現在已經到了可以利用過去四五年來的投資來實現進一步增長的階段。

Jeff Spector, Bank of America.

美國銀行的傑夫·斯佩克特（Jeff Spector）。

Great. Just a big picture, Ben, on recent demographic shifts, changes that we're seeing. Anything impacting your decision on the future allocation of suburbs for 80%? Are you confident to stick with that at this point? Is there any thought to decrease that?

偉大的。本，我來概括一下最近人口結構的變化，以及我們所看到的變化。有什麼事情影響您對未來 80% 郊區分配的決定嗎？現在有信心堅持下去嗎？有什麼想法可以減少這個數字嗎？

Yes. I appreciate that, Jeff. And we go through a fairly robust updated strategic assessment each year looking to try and identify are those that are the shifts that have happened that as we think forward a couple of years, we want to start to get ahead of. So that's a constant process, constant part of how we think about evolving our platform A lot of the demographics is obviously longer-term trends, demographics, migration shifts, regulatory environment. So we are still, at this point, focused on moving increasingly to the suburbs with a target of getting suburban exposure. We made good progress this year.

是的。我很感激，傑夫。我們每年都會進行相當嚴格、最新的策略評估，試圖找出那些已經發生的轉變，展望未來幾年，我們希望開始領先。所以這是一個持續的過程，也是我們思考如何發展我們的平台的持續組成部分。因此，目前我們仍然致力於不斷向郊區遷移，以獲得郊區的曝光。我們今年取得了良好的進展。

And then the other big shift is our expansion market shift to get to 25%. And then the other elements which you're increasingly hearing us to talk about is the evolution of products, right? It's not just market and submarket, but it's also the right product at the right price point. And I think we have taken a different approach in terms of how we've built out our portfolio over time, but particularly recently in the expansion markets with a heavier suburban focus, a focus on lower density, slightly older products that we believe will be less susceptible to new supply and deliver stronger growth over a cycle.

另一個重大轉變是我們的擴張市場轉變至達到 25%。那麼您越來越多地聽到我們談論的其他因素是產品的演變，對嗎？它不僅是市場和次市場，也是合適價格的合適產品。我認為，我們在如何隨著時間的推移建立我們的投資組合方面採取了不同的方法，特別是最近在擴張市場中，我們更加關注郊區，關注密度較低、稍舊的產品，我們認為這些產品不太容易受到新供應的影響，並會在一個週期內實現更強勁的增長。

Okay. And then my second question, probably a tough one to answer given the changes we're seeing on tariffs. But development costs and the risk of tariffs, and we've seen homebuilders come out with projections of higher costs. Of course, I'm assuming that would really more hit garden style. But how should we think about the risk of tariffs and the development costs, I think they're fairly set in '25, but '26, how are you thinking about it?

好的。然後是我的第二個問題，考慮到我們看到的關稅變化，這個問題可能很難回答。但考慮到開發成本和關稅風險，我們已經看到房屋建築商提出了更高的成本預測。當然，我認為這確實更符合花園風格。但是我們應該如何考慮關稅風險和開發成本，我認為它們在'25 年已經相當確定了，但是'26 年，您是如何考慮的呢？

Yes. I'll start at a high level and ask Matt to talk a little bit more specifically challenging at this point in time to forecast what all of the policy changes are going to come through equally challenging to figure out what the flow-through of that is going to be from the economy down to the apartment market, tariffs being one of those areas where we can. We are trying to get ahead of those potential impacts. So thinking about securing supply channels, thinking about locking and pricing there's aspects of it that could flow through to some contract services. And on the development and construction side, not huge swings, but potentially some headwinds there. Matt, do you want to provide some more details?

是的。我將從高層次開始，請馬特更具體地談談目前的挑戰，預測所有政策變化將會帶來什麼，同樣具有挑戰性的是弄清楚這些變化將如何從經濟傳導到公寓市場，關稅是我們可以研究的領域之一。我們正在努力避免這些潛在影響。因此，考慮確保供應管道，考慮鎖定和定價，其中的一些方面可能會影響到一些合約服務。在開發和建設方面，雖然不會出現巨大的波動，但可能會出現一些阻力。馬特，你想提供更多細節嗎？

Yes. We do look at it all the time. And Jeff, I'd tell you is when you think about what goes into the cost of a new apartment community, land is on average, maybe 15% of the total budget, 10% to 20%, maybe even 25% depending on the location, but on average, call it 15%. Soft costs, interest, A&E, permits and fees, overhead is probably 30% to 35%.

是的。我們確實一直在關注它。傑夫，我想告訴你，當你考慮一個新公寓社區的成本時，土地平均可能佔總預算的 15%，10% 到 20%，甚至 25%，具體取決於位置，但平均而言，是 15%。軟成本、利息、A&E、許可證和費用、管理費用大概佔 30% 到 35%。

So you had -- your actual hard cost is probably about 60% to 65% of the total capital cost. And of that cost, most of it, probably two-thirds of it is labor, depending on the trade. So we have gone through, and if you look at it on a typical deal for us based on assumptions you make about what percentage of product is foreign sourced and so on. It might add a couple of percent to a total budget, maybe $5,000 to $7,000 a unit, if it all gets 100% passed through. So that would be a little bit of a headwind to future new business.

所以你的實際硬成本大概佔總資本成本的 60% 到 65%。其中大部分成本（大概三分之二）是勞動成本，取決於產業。所以我們已經經歷過了，如果你根據對產品中有多少比例是外國來源的假設來看看我們的典型交易。如果全部通過的話，可能會使總預算增加幾個百分點，大概每個單位增加 5,000 到 7,000 美元。所以這對未來的新業務來說可能會有點不利。

I think much more important is labor. What makes up hard costs it's the materials, that's the smallest piece of it, it's the labor and then it's the subcontractors profit margin. And what we're seeing in the current market today with the slowdown in multifamily starts and with the slowdown in single-family store, is the subcontractors are hungry for work. So we're seeing great success on the buyout right now on the things that we currently have in the market.

我認為更重要的是勞動力。構成硬成本的是材料，這是最小的部分，然後是勞動力，最後是分包商的利潤率。我們今天在市場上看到，隨著多戶住宅開工率的放緩和獨戶住宅店面數量的放緩，分包商急需工作。因此，我們看到，就目前我們市場上的產品而言，收購取得了巨大的成功。

And you can see that even in our current -- the deals we just completed this past quarter actually finished under budget, which is the first time I think I've been able to say that in probably six years. And the deals we have currently under construction are also tracking a little bit under budget. So much more of it's going to depend on the macro environment, the subcontractor, the trade base, how busy they are and ultimately their labor costs. But -- so right now, there's more tailwinds than headwinds, but obviously, that could change.

您可以看到，即使在我們目前的狀況下——我們剛剛在上個季度完成的交易實際上也是在預算之內完成的，我想這可能是我六年來第一次能夠這麼說。我們目前正在進行的交易也略微低於預算。這在很大程度上取決於宏觀環境、分包商、貿易基礎、他們的繁忙程度以及最終的勞動力成本。但是 — — 目前，順風多於逆風，但顯然，這種情況可能會改變。

And then just one more, if I can. On the prior call, the company was a bit cautious on Boston. Can you talk about Boston, your thoughts between supply and demand? And then is pharma, biotech slowing down Boston more than expected?

如果可以的話，我還想再說一次。在先前的電話會議上，該公司對波士頓持有點謹慎的態度。能談談波士頓以及您對供需的看法嗎？那麼製藥業和生技業是否會比預期更拖累波士頓的發展呢？

Yes, Jeff, this is Sean. I would say our experience in Boston is relatively positive. We do not have a cautious outlook for Boston whatsoever. It's been a strong performer, particularly our primarily suburban portfolio, well insulated from new supply, highly educated, high-income workforce there in Boston. If we don't have a lot in the sort of inner core, we have a handful of assets where there's been a little more supply, so it may just be portfolio differences that are creating a bit of a cautious notice as compared to our experience.

是的，傑夫，這是肖恩。我想說我們在波士頓的經歷相對來說是正面的。我們對波士頓的前景並不持任何謹慎態度。它的表現一直很強勁，特別是我們主要的郊區投資組合，很好地抵禦了波士頓新增供應、高等教育、高收入勞動力的影響。如果我們在內核方面沒有太多資產，那麼我們就會有一些資產的供應量稍微多一些，所以與我們的經驗相比，這可能只是投資組合的差異引起了一些謹慎的注意。

Nick Yulico, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Nick Yulico。

I was hoping to get what the development completion expectation is for this year relative to the $1.3 billion that was completed last year?

我希望了解，相對於去年完成的 13 億美元，今年的開發完成預期是多少？

Yes. Nick, it's Matt. I think we're only looking at completing about $350 million this year, $350 million. Yes. So that's why you're going to see -- our expectations if we started billing fix, we only complete $350 million, the development underway would grow from, call it, $2.2 billion today to $3.5 billion by the end of the year.

是的。尼克，我是馬特。我認為我們今年只能完成約 3.5 億美元，3.5 億美元。是的。所以這就是為什麼你會看到的——我們的預期是，如果我們開始結算，我們只完成 3.5 億美元，那麼正在進行的開發將從今天的 22 億美元增長到今年年底的 35 億美元。

Okay. Yes. That's helpful. And I guess the follow-up on that is I know page 11 of the presentation, you guys gave that helpful math on the NOI from new investment and then the capital markets activity, and there's not the net of those two is a slight benefit this year.

好的。是的。這很有幫助。我想後續的問題就是，我知道在簡報的第 11 頁，你們對新投資的淨營運收入和資本市場活動給出了有用的計算，而這兩項的淨額今年並沒有帶來輕微的收益。

So I guess, based on what you just said, that $0.33 from new investment, that's a sort of lighter number I guess, than normal and perhaps the capital markets activity is eating into that more so than it would in a in a given year, meaning that like -- this feels like this might be a little bit of an abnormal year for how development overall is contributing to earnings growth. Is that the right way to look at it?

因此，根據您剛才所說的，我想，來自新投資的 0.33 美元是一個比正常情況要少的數字，也許資本市場活動對這一數字的侵蝕比某一年要大，這意味著——從整體發展對盈利增長的貢獻來看，今年似乎有點不正常。這是正確的看法嗎？

Nick, probably that's probably true to some degree. The capital costs are a little heavier this year. You do have a cap interest benefit of $0.06 that goes the other way. And then per your discussion with Matt, where we're delivering a little bit less. Our occupancies this year, which is what gives us this development NOI is expected to be -- is expected to be a little less this year at 2,200 units this year versus 3,000 units in '25. So when you kind of roll it all together, you can see this in our development NOI itself, which is a component of that $0.33.

尼克，可能在某種程度上這是正確的。今年的資金成本稍微重了一點。您確實有 0.06 美元的上限利息收益，但反之亦然。然後根據你與馬特的討論，我們提供的服務會少一些。我們今年的入住率，也就是我們這個開發案的淨營業收入預計會略低一些，為 2,200 套，而 25 年為 3,000 套。因此，當你把所有這些放在一起時，你就可以在開發 NOI 本身中看到這一點，它是那 0.33 美元的一個組成部分。

For 2025, our development NOI is expected to be $30 million. Whereas for last year, it was a higher number last year at about, I think, probably $40 million or something like that, $4 million mom million. So -- when you put it all together, there's a little bit less development NOI coming through, but there's some puts and takes.

到 2025 年，我們的開發淨收入預計將達到 3,000 萬美元。而去年，這個數字更高，我想大概是 4,000 萬美元左右，季增 400 萬美元。所以 — — 當你把所有這些放在一起時，你會發現開發的 NOI 會少一點，但也有一些得失。

And I guess I'd refer you to kind of the answer that I gave to Eric at the top of the call here in the Q&A session, where I kind of walk through the development accretion with our SIP earnings growth. What we think we get from our investment platforms in terms of earnings growth this year is about $0.15, which equates to about 140 basis points of growth. That's probably a little lower than a normal year, which is probably more like 150 to 200 basis points of contribution from our investment activities. And again, if you want to walk through this offline, we can certainly do that.

我想我會讓你參考一下我在電話會議開始時在問答環節給 Eric 的答案，我在其中詳細介紹了我們的 SIP 盈利增長的發展歷程。我們認為，今年我們的投資平台的獲利成長約為 0.15 美元，相當於約 140 個基點的成長。這可能比正常年份略低，可能更像是我們的投資活動貢獻 150 到 200 個基點。再說一次，如果您想離線完成此操作，我們當然可以這樣做。

John Pawlowski, Green Street Advisors.

約翰‧帕沃夫斯基 (John Pawlowski)，Green Street Advisors 公司。

Matt, just two transaction market questions for you. I'm curious in the markets that you're looking to buy in what rough range of discounts to replacement costs are you able to buy out? Because I know a lot of folks in the private market are quoting discounts to replacement costs, but it's a really, really subjective figure and that you can pick any number to justify price you're paying. So curious what your team is seeing given your good detail or good kind of clarity on construction costs and where you can buy in the same market?

馬特，我只想問你兩個交易市場問題。我很好奇，在您想要購買的市場上，您能夠以大約多少折扣範圍的重置成本買到？因為我知道私人市場中的許多人都在報出重置成本的折扣，但這是一個非常非常主觀的數字，您可以選擇任何數字來證明您支付的價格是合理的。鑑於您對建築成本以及可以在同一市場購買的地方的詳細說明或清晰介紹，您非常好奇您的團隊看到了什麼？

Yes. It is something that we also look at pretty closely because those are both investment options that are available to us, and we're both developing and buying in many of these markets today. So it depends on the submarket. It depends on the product type. A lot of what we're looking to buy is, call it, 5 to 10 years old, and it might be at a 10% to 20% discount replacement cost. And that's not appropriate -- brand new product should sell at a higher price per door per foot than 10-year-old 5- to 10-year-old product, and it will generate more NOI.

是的。這也是我們密切關注的問題，因為這些都是我們可以選擇的投資方式，而且我們目前在許多這樣的市場中進行開發和購買。所以這取決於子市場。這取決於產品類型。我們要買的很多東西都有 5 到 10 年的歷史了，而且其重置成本可能會打 10% 到 20% 的折扣。這並不合適——全新產品的每門每英尺售價應高於已有 10 年歷史或已有 5 至 10 年歷史的產品，而且它將產生更多的淨營運收益。

There are markets where you can probably buy brand-new product in lease-up are coming right out of lease-up below where today's replacement costs are. Those are not the markets and the submarkets we're generally looking at. We're trying to stay away from those high-supply submarkets. So what we've been looking at anyway, it kind of lines up in a way that makes a bit more sense.

在某些市場中，您可能能夠以租賃的方式購買到全新的產品，而這些產品的租賃價格剛好低於如今的重置成本。這些不是我們通常關注的市場和子市場。我們正努力遠離那些供應量大的次市場。所以，無論如何，我們所看到的，都是以更有意義的方式排列的。

Okay and then last one for me. I briefly caught your portfolio trading commentary, the quote you had. Could you just expand on that? It sounds like you're more optimistic organic portfolio. Is that a function of wanting to accelerate your portfolio shift in the suburbs in the expansion markets? Or is it a function of you're seeing better pricing on portfolio acquisitions?

好的，這是我最後一個。我簡要地看到了您的投資組合交易評論和您的引言。能進一步詳細說明一下嗎？聽起來你對有機投資組合比較樂觀。這是想要加速您在擴張市場中轉移到郊區投資組合的功能嗎？或者它是否意味著您看到了投資組合收購的更好定價？

Yes. No, I -- but what I meant to say anyway, was if a portfolio that aligned with our strategic objectives came to market, we would definitely be interested in pursuing it more, and a -- our balance sheet would support it. So we certainly could pull the trigger on something it was attractive. We're not necessarily at this moment seeing that. So I'd say the conditions, our balance sheet supports the conditions are there.

是的。不，我——但無論如何，我的意思是，如果符合我們策略目標的投資組合進入市場，我們肯定會更有興趣追求它，而且——我們的資產負債表也會支持它。所以我們當然可以對某些有吸引力的事情採取行動。我們目前還不一定會看到這一點。所以我想說，我們的資產負債表支持這些條件。

And more broadly, we think it's a better time to make the relative trade than maybe it has been in the last couple of years. So therefore, our hope is that we will be able to increase our portfolio trading activity further, but we haven't seen anything yet.

更廣泛地說，我們認為現在是進行相對交易的最佳時機，也許比過去幾年更好。因此，我們希望能夠進一步增加我們的投資組合交易活動，但我們還沒有看到任何進展。

Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的亞當克萊默。

Great. Wanted to ask about the Los Angeles market, obviously, a really unfortunate wildfires and situation there. I was wondering if, in your portfolio you've seen anything on the ground, whether it's leads or activity that could suggest there could be some incremental benefit to the portfolio just from a need for more rental properties. And then on the other side of it, anything from a headwinds perspective, be it the picture moratorium or anything else that could impact operations on the other side?

偉大的。想問一下洛杉磯市場的情況，顯然那裡發生了非常不幸的山火和情況。我想知道，在您的投資組合中，您是否看到任何實際跡象，無論是線索還是活動，都可能表明僅由於需要更多的租賃物業，投資組合就可能獲得一些增量收益。那麼另一方面，從不利因素的角度來看，有什麼事情嗎？

Yes, Adam, this is Sean. First, as it relates to your initial question, if you think about the displacement and what happened there was certainly tragic, as you might imagine, what we have heard on the ground from our teams is that most of those customers, as you might expect, are looking for single-family rentals, larger floor plans, preferably in the same school districts if they can get it, which is certainly challenging, obviously, given the level of destruction that occurred.

是的，亞當，這是肖恩。首先，關於您最初的問題，如果您考慮到流離失所的情況，那裡發生的事情無疑是悲慘的，正如您所想像的，我們從團隊實地了解到的情況是，大多數客戶都在尋找單戶出租房屋，房屋平面圖更大，如果可以的話最好是在同一個學區，考慮到所發生的破壞程度，這顯然具有挑戰性。

We've seen a little bit of an uptick, I would say, over the last weeks, maybe 15% of our leases is around 60 leases or so have come from people who have been displaced. But it is very specific as assets and submarkets: Pasadena, Glendale, Santa Monica, Burbank, some of those submarkets, it's a handful of leases here and there that add up to about 60 leases, so it's hard to know where it's going to go forward as the insurance process evolves and things of that sort, but that's what we've experienced thus far.

我想說，在過去幾周里，我們看到了一點上升的趨勢，大概有 15% 的租約（大約 60 份租約）來自流離失所的人。但它作為資產和子市場非常具體：帕薩迪納、格倫代爾、聖莫尼卡、伯班克，其中一些子市場，這裡和那裡有少量的租約，加起來大約有 60 個租約，所以很難知道隨著保險流程的發展和諸如此類的事情，它會走向何方，但這就是我們迄今為止的經歷。

And as it relates to potential adoption of any eviction moratorium and/or rent freezes, we have not contemplated that as part of our guidance. There's been chatter about that. City Council looked at it a week ago. They sent it back to the Housing Committee. Housing Committee is reviewing it, sending stuff back to the council. So there's a little bit of pingpong going on right now. So we don't know exactly how that may come out. But we hope that they don't take action that certainly has a negative impact on people who have been displaced. We need more housing for those folks, not less. So we'll see where it comes out, but we don't know anything definitive at this point.

至於可能採取的任何驅逐禁令和/或租金凍結措施，我們尚未將其作為指導的一部分進行考慮。人們一直在談論這件事。市議會一周前對此進行了審查。他們將其送回了住房委員會。住房委員會正在審查該材料，並將其送回議會。因此現在正在進行一些乒乓球比賽。所以我們不知道具體結果會是怎樣。但我們希望他們不要採取肯定會對流離失所者產生負面影響的行動。我們需要為這些人提供更多的住房，而不是更少。因此，我們會觀察結果，但目前我們還不知道任何確切消息。

Got it. That's helpful. And then looking at that slide 12 with the kind of job growth any kind of employment forecast for this year. I don't know that I have a specific question here other than just, I think, being a little bit surprised maybe kind of the acceleration in jobs for the rest of this year.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後我們來看看第 12 張投影片，其中介紹了今年的就業成長和就業預測。我不知道我在這裡是否有一個具體的問題，除了我認為對今年剩餘時間內就業成長加速感到有點驚訝之外。

And I know these are from the third parties, so the level of granularity that you guys have may not be super robust here, but just to the extent you can talk about kind of what their thinking is or what's embedded in that kind of acceleration over the course of this year from jobs perspective. And again, it looks like it's taking jobs in 3Q and 4Q to a level we haven't seen in a couple of years. So just the kind of underlying assumptions or thought process there, I think, would be helpful.

我知道這些都是來自第三方的，所以你們的詳細程度可能不是特別詳細，但你可以談談他們的想法是什麼，或者從就業的角度來看，今年這種加速的背後隱藏著什麼。而且，看起來第三季和第四季的就業機會已經達到了我們幾年來未曾見過的水平。所以我認為，那裡面的這種基本假設或思考過程將會很有幫助。

Yes, Adam, it's Ben. We continue to look at NABE, the National Association of Business Economists as the starting point for our job and wage assumptions going into the year. And as you call out, moderating growth last year, wind up having roughly about 2 million jobs generated across the country and Dave's consensus is that figure coming down into roughly the the $1.5 million type of range, fairly consistent kind of growth throughout the year. Sean called out in his prepared remarks, we are hopeful that we'll benefit from a better mix of jobs this year given potentially more of the growth occurring in the core AvalonBay types of industries.

是的，亞當，我是本。我們將繼續以美國全國商業經濟學家協會 (NABE) 為基準，制定今年的就業和薪資假設。正如您所說，去年經濟成長放緩，最終在全國創造了約 200 萬個就業崗位，而戴夫的共識是，這一數字將下降到大約 150 萬美元的範圍內，全年保持相當穩定的增長。肖恩在他的準備好的發言中呼籲，我們希望今年我們將從更好的就業組合中受益，因為阿瓦隆灣核心行業類型可能會出現更多的增長。

Yes. One thing just to clarify and make sure you're interpreting the chart correctly, is that chart on the right only reflects two job classifications within our Southeast regions. It's not overall job growth. So keep that in mind that is talking about an acceleration in those specific categories of employment as opposed to that being the cadence of overall job growth throughout the US.

是的。需要澄清的一點是，確保您正確解讀該圖表，右側的圖表僅反映了我們東南地區的兩種工作分類。這並不是整體的就業成長。因此請記住，我們談論的是特定類別的就業加速成長，而不是美國整體就業成長的節奏。

Rich Hightower, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的里奇‧海托爾 (Rich Hightower)。

John, I want to go back to your comments on the breakdown between new and renewal and blends for the year and to see if you could break it down just a little bit further and tell us how sort of the established markets relative to the expansion markets might look under the same framework.

約翰，我想回到你對今年新市場、更新市場和混合市場的細分的評論，看看你是否可以進一步細分一下，並告訴我們在同一框架下，成熟市場相對於擴張市場的狀況如何。

Yes. So as I mentioned, we expect to see an improvement and effective rent change as we move through the year, which would be normal with the second half being slightly stronger than the first half, which is the opposite of what occurred in 2024. And -- so that's kind of where we are as it relates to the sequencing by quarter.

是的。因此，正如我所提到的那樣，我們預計隨著時間的推移，租金會有所改善和有效變化，這將是正常的，下半年將略強於上半年，這與 2024 年的情況相反。這就是我們所處的與按季度排序相關的情況。

As it relates to the expansion regions versus the established regions, the first thing I would say is majority of our portfolio is obviously our established regions, and we're expecting rent change to be healthier in those regions as compared to the expansion regions. The expansion regions, it's -- we're talking about a handful of regions here. So I wouldn't necessarily average them because you have a lot of different things happening across those regions that are very unique Charlotte, particularly urban Charlotte, it's pretty beat up. It's likely going to be flat to negative. Dallas will likely be positive this year because of a pretty rough 2024 in the 2% to 3% range positive.

至於擴張區域與成熟區域的關係，我首先要說的是，我們的投資組合中大部分顯然是成熟區域，我們預計這些地區的租金變化將比擴張區域更為健康。擴展區域，我們這裡討論的是少數幾個區域。因此，我不一定會平均它們，因為在那些非常獨特的夏洛特地區會發生很多不同的事情，特別是市區夏洛特，它相當破舊。它可能會持平或變成負值。達拉斯今年的業績可能為正值，因為 2024 年的業績相當艱難，正值範圍在 2% 到 3% 之間。

And then Florida and Denver, Florida is expected to be very modestly positive, I call it, roughly flat to plus 50 basis points. And then as it relates to Denver, feel better about Denver than what is represented by the market overall, given the distributed nature of our assets across suburban submarkets. That being said, it's experienced a level of supply that has impacted the market more generally. So it would also be below the established region average. So I would be hesitant to draw sort of a broad conclusion across expansion regions, but give you those insights as it relates to each one.

然後是佛羅裡達和丹佛，預計佛羅裡達州將出現非常溫和的正增長，我稱之為大致持平至正 50 個基點。然後就丹佛而言，考慮到我們的資產在郊區子市場的分佈性質，我們對丹佛的感覺比整個市場所代表的感覺要好。話雖如此，它的供應水準已經對整個市場產生了影響。因此它也會低於既定的地區平均值。因此，我不願意對擴展區域得出廣泛的結論，但我會給你與每個區域相關的見解。

That's very helpful. And then the second quick one is for Matt. You mentioned wanting over time to grow the SIP book to maybe around $400 million. I think we've heard comments on other calls that, that particular product in the marketplace is becoming increasingly competitive I guess, in terms of capital chasing yield and so forth. So maybe just tell us about the dynamics that you're seeing in the marketplace and how you guys can sort of be Uber selective and still hit your growth targets there?

這非常有幫助。第二個簡短的問題是給馬特的。您提到希望隨著時間的推移將 SIP 帳簿增加到約 4 億美元。我想我們已經聽到其他電話會議的評論，我認為市場上的某種產品在資本追逐收益等方面的競爭力正在日益增強。那麼，能否請您向我們介紹一下您在市場上看到的動態，以及您如何能夠選擇性地選擇 Uber，同時仍然實現成長目標？

Sure. Rich, I guess what I would say is we do think that we bring -- in terms of the competitive environment, for us, the issue hasn't been losing deals to other providers of that slice of capital. It's been finding deals that underwrite to an appropriate level of safety and margin for us relative to where our proceeds are going to stop. So we're not going as high up the capital stack as we used to go, whereas maybe earlier iterations went just given what's happened to interest rates and valuations.

當然。里奇，我想說的是，我們確實認為，就競爭環境而言，對我們來說，問題並不是輸給其他資本提供者。我們一直在尋找能夠為我們提供適當的安全性和保證金水平的交易，相對於我們的收益將停止的地方。因此，我們不會像以前那樣在資本堆疊上走得那麼高，而也許早期的迭代只是考慮到利率和估值的變化。

So what we saw last year is there were a lot of deals trying to get capitalized that really, they were just the wrong core product market fit. They were high rises in a market that would only support mid-rise or midrise in a market that should only support garden or very aggressive super luxury rents assumed or something like that. So through the course of '24, a lot of those deals got flushed out of the system and just didn't happen. And not only did they not happen, but eventually, the sponsors just gave up and moved on.

因此，我們看到去年有很多交易試圖獲得資本，但實際上，它們只是不適合核心產品市場。它們是高層建築，而市場僅能支持中層建築；或者，它們是中層建築，而市場僅能支持花園建築或非常激進的超級豪華租金，或諸如此類的建築。因此，在 24 年的時間裡，許多交易都被排除在系統之外，根本沒有發生。但這不僅沒有發生，而且贊助商最終也放棄並繼續前進。

So what we've seen recently, I'd say in the last quarter or so is deals that may start to make a lot more sense. They're in a much better basis. It's a better land deal. It's the right product. It's generally not as ambitious and aggressive in terms of the density and the rent level. So we think those deals make sense. And some of those deals, people are not taking -- our program is strictly [naz] to merchant builders. We're not doing to kind of bridge to bridge thing or the recaps and the reason we're keeping it to that is because it leverages our unique capabilities in development, construction and operations.

所以，我想說，我們最近看到的情況是，在最近一個季度左右，交易可能開始變得更有意義。他們的基礎好多了。這是一項更好的土地交易。這是正確的產品。就密度和租金水平而言，它通常沒有那麼雄心勃勃和激進。因此我們認為這些交易是有意義的。有些交易人們不願意接受──我們的計畫嚴格針對商人建築商。我們不會採取橋對橋的方式或重複的做法，我們之所以這樣做是因為它能夠利用我們在開發、建造和營運方面的獨特能力。

So on the deals that make sense to us I would say we are a preferred capital provider, and we have inter-credit agreements with quite a few primary lenders, both banks and debt funds that take a lot of comfort in the fact that we are there with them in the lending in the capital stack because we have a lot of internal data. We know how to look at a deal and understand if it's getting built right and if it's going to be operated, right?

因此，對於對我們有意義的交易，我想說我們是優先的資本提供者，並且我們與相當多的主要貸款人（包括銀行和債務基金）簽訂了信貸間協議，他們對我們的在資本堆棧貸款中與他們並肩而立感到十分安心，因為我們擁有大量的內部數據。我們知道如何看待一筆交易並了解它是否正在正確建設以及是否會投入運營，對嗎？

So I'd say we're very competitive on the deals that we want to win, and it's just hoping that there'll be enough of them out there. So that's a pretty modest goal. I mean these are $20 million, $25 million per deal. So we're talking three deals, three or four deals over the course of the year. We already have one that's in due diligence right now that we hope to close here in the first quarter and several others that are in the advanced stages. So I'd say it's a relatively modest goal, and I'm feeling pretty good about it.

因此我想說，我們在爭取交易方面非常有競爭力，只是希望能有足夠的交易。所以這是一個相當適中的目標。我的意思是每筆交易的價值是2000萬美元到2500萬美元。因此，我們計劃在今年內達成三筆、三筆或四筆交易。目前，我們已經對其中一項項目進行了盡職調查，希望能在第一季完成，另外還有幾項項目已進入後期階段。所以我認為這是一個相對適中的目標，我對此感到非常滿意。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

亞歷山大·戈德法布，派珀·桑德勒。

Two questions. First, Fee income has been a popular topic as the industry rolls out various things like Wi-Fi in addition to historic things, waste services, et cetera. As you guys look at the total all-in pricing, of rent plus these other services. Is it your sense that these services are additive or from a resident perspective, they look at the whole -- sort of the whole enchilada and say, this is the amount I can pay, and therefore, whether you're charging more in fees or rent, it doesn't really increase the overall sort of growth rate of the unit per se.

兩個問題。首先，隨著該行業推出Wi-Fi、歷史遺跡、廢物處理服務等各種項目，費用收入一直是個熱門話題。你們看看租金加上其他服務的總價。您是否認為這些服務是附加的，或者從居民的角度來看，他們會考慮整體——整個事情然後說，這是我可以支付的金額，因此，無論您收取更多的費用還是租金，它實際上都不會提高單位本身的整體增長率。

Yes, Alex, this is Sean. It's a good question. What I'd say is it depends a little bit on the composition of the various things that end up in the bundle, I'll call it, -- so for example, if we're talking about book Internet to you as one example, if we could replace the cost of that service for the resident at a comparable speed at a discount, net-net, you should look at that favorably, right?

是的，亞歷克斯，這是肖恩。這是個好問題。我想說的是，這在一定程度上取決於最終捆綁在一起的各種東西的組成，我稱之為——例如，如果我們以書籍互聯網為例，如果我們能夠以折扣價為居民支付同等速度的服務成本，那麼您應該對此持樂觀態度，對嗎？

When it comes to other fees that are out there, I think it's a good point where people start looking at, okay, there's let's call it, a move-in fee for amenities or there's a recurring maintenance fee or this that or the other. If you're an outlier as it relates to that, then you may start to see some resistance everybody is passing through utilities, everybody has pet fees, things like that, that are relatively standard. I think it's people who maybe add on the edge a little bit as it relates to either the amount they're charging for something or the unique nature of one that people may start to pause and wonder if that really makes sense or not. So it's an area that's evolving, I would say, we're all pushing at the public to private, et cetera.

說到其他費用，我認為人們開始關注這些費用是一個很好的角度，例如，我們稱之為入住便利設施費，或定期維護費，或其他費用。如果您在這方面是個異類，那麼您可能會開始看到每個人都在通過公用事業遇到的一些阻力，每個人都有寵物費，諸如此類的事情，這些都是相對標準的。我認為人們可能會在對某件事物收取的費用或某件事物的獨特性方面增加一些優勢，人們可能會開始停下來思考這是否真的有意義。所以我想說這是一個正在發展的領域，我們都在推動從公共到私人等等的發展。

And I think where we're providing good service and good value for residents. They should appreciate it. It may take a little education for us to understand it. Hey, with this fee, well, this is the bulk Internet fee, if you look at what you pay every month to Verizon, what we're offering at a discount, et cetera, et cetera. It's a good question. I think people are working their way through it. Net-net, we think we provide good value to residents for what we charge, but it is sort of an owner by owner type of approach you really have to look at.

我認為我們正在為居民提供良好的服務和良好的價值。他們應該感激這一點。我們可能需要接受一點教育才能理解這一點。嘿，這個費用，嗯，這是批量互聯網費用，如果您看看您每個月向 Verizon 支付的費用，以及我們提供的折扣等等。這是個好問題。我認為人們正在努力解決這個問題。總體而言，我們認為我們為居民提供了與我們所收取的費用相符的良好價值，但這是一種業主自負盈虧的做法，你真的必須考慮。

Okay. The second question is on harvesting assets, clearly, you guys are now out of Connecticut. As you look at Maryland, Montgomery County has become a flashpoint, given rent control. Is it your view that that's another -- that Maryland is another market that you would look to significantly scale back, especially where it's been impacted by rent control laws. Just sort of curious, given some of the headlines out of that market.

好的。第二個問題是關於收穫資產，顯然，你們現在已經離開了康乃狄克州。看看馬裡蘭州，由於租金管制，蒙哥馬利縣已經成為焦點。您是否認為馬裡蘭州是您希望大幅縮減的另一個市場，尤其是受到租金管制法影響的市場。只是有點好奇，考慮到該市場的一些頭條新聞。

Yes, Alex, it's Matt. It is a factor in our overall portfolio allocation goals longer term. So Ben talked about our goal to get to 80% suburban. Some of that is about demand and supply. We like the demographics and there's more supply constraints in many of these suburban towns. And some of it is about regulatory risk and exposure, and most of the jurisdictions that have a more aggressive regulatory regime, or more regulatory risks are urban.

是的，亞歷克斯，我是馬特。這是我們長期整體投資組合配置目標的因素。本談到了我們實現 80% 郊區化的目標。其中一些與需求和供應有關。我們喜歡人口統計數據，而且許多郊區城鎮的供應限制較多。其中一些涉及監管風險和風險敞口，大多數擁有更激進監管制度或更多監管風險的司法管轄區都在城市。

You mentioned one that's not, Montgomery County, which is suburban. We have a relatively modest presence in Montgomery County. I think we only have maybe four assets there. So we're not necessarily looking to lighten up specifically in Montgomery County at this moment, but it is a part of our overall strategy, and you'll see us continue to sell assets out of jurisdictions where we view there being elevated regulatory risk over the next period of years.

您提到的那個縣不是，蒙哥馬利縣，它是郊區。我們在蒙哥馬利縣的存在相對較少。我認為我們在那裡可能只有四項資產。因此，我們目前不一定希望特別減少在蒙哥馬利縣的投資，但這是我們整體策略的一部分，你會看到我們繼續在未來幾年內在我們認為監管風險較高的司法管轄區外出售資產。

I mean, even if you look at what we sold in the past year, we sold asset in the city of Seattle. We sold an asset in the city of Los Angeles, City of Boston. Those are all places -- I mean, that was one factor among others, and you'll continue to see that.

我的意思是，即使你看看我們去年賣了什麼，我們也在西雅圖市出售了資產。我們出售了位於洛杉磯市和波士頓市的資產。這些都是地方——我的意思是，這是眾多因素之一，你會繼續看到這一點。

There's the disposition side, Alex, and obviously, then there's also the new investment side. And so in certain locations that have heightened regulatory risk or uncertainty as it relates to the regulatory future. For sure, the bar is higher there in terms of investing new capital dollars.

有處置方面，亞歷克斯，顯然還有新的投資方面。因此，在某些地方，與監管未來相關的監管風險或不確定性會增加。可以肯定的是，就投資新資本而言，那裡的門檻更高。

Rich Anderson, Wedbush Securities.

韋德布什證券公司的里奇·安德森 (Rich Anderson)。

So when you just look at what you have going on right now, and let's say you get everything done in 2025 that you have on your plate, how much closer do you get to your 25% target in expansion markets from the 10% that ended the year? I'm just wondering what -- how much the gap close over the course of this coming year as you see it today.

因此，當您只看現在正在發生的事情時，假設您在 2025 年完成了所有的事情，那麼您距離擴張市場的 25% 的目標還有多遠呢？我只是想知道——正如你今天所看到的，在未來的一年裡差距會縮小多少。

Yes. Rich, we've been taking a fairly steady and sort of measured approach there. As you saw this year, we moved it to 2% to 3%. So if we continue in that normal course between trading activity and new investment activity is probably likely in that range. Now that is subject to the extent that we find opportunities, a small portfolio, opportunities to potentially move that needle quicker that's out there. But normal course is probably in that type of range. So it's a multiyear effort, which has benefited us as we've sort of paced our capital allocation into these markets over time.

是的。里奇，我們一直採取相當穩定和有分寸的做法。正如您今年看到的，我們將其提高到了 2% 到 3%。因此，如果我們繼續保持交易活動和新投資活動的正常進行，那麼很可能就會處於該範圍內。現在這取決於我們能否找到機會，一個小的投資組合，一個可能更快地推動這一進程的機會。但正常過程可能就處於這種範圍內。所以這是一項多年的努力，隨著時間的推移，我們逐漸調整了對這些市場的資本配置，這使我們受益匪淺。

Okay. And maybe correct me if I'm wrong here, but I think 45% of your starts this year will be in your expansion markets. Do you think as that area in the country steadily improves over the course of this year and perhaps you start to see some really big time growth in '26 and '27 that acquiring in those markets becomes incrementally less appealing and developing is perhaps the way you top off getting to your full allocation of 25%. Is that a reasonable way you think about it like for now, maybe more in the way of acquisitions, but later on more in the way of development?

好的。如果我錯了，請糾正我，但我認為今年你們 45% 的啟動資金將用於擴張市場。您是否認為，隨著今年該國這一地區的經濟穩步發展，並且您可能會看到 26 年和 27 年出現真正巨大的增長，在這些市場進行收購會逐漸變得不那麼有吸引力，而開發也許是您獲得 25% 全部分配額的途徑。您現在這樣想合理嗎？

I think about it as both. I mean I wouldn't -- I don't think it's an either/or choice for us at a market level, at a submarket level, obviously, we'll lean into acquisitions versus development going back to Matt's conversations as it relates to replacement cost.

我認為兩者兼而有之。我的意思是，我不認為在市場層面、次市場層面這對我們來說是一個非此即彼的選擇，顯然，我們會傾向於收購而不是開發，回到馬特關於重置成本的談話中。

But I think we are in a window right now where we feel like we have a balance sheet. We can bring our strategic capabilities to bear where we can be growing both through acquisitions and development and then breaking down development further through our own development and through the funding of other developers and that's a program that in times where we feel like we have the green light on development in terms of economics of development and cost of capital that allows us to flex capital allocation into that sleeve.

但我認為，我們現在正處於一個感覺我們擁有資產負債表的窗口期。我們可以將我們的策略能力運用到透過收購和開發來實現成長，然後透過我們自己的開發和資助其他開發商來進一步細分開發，這是一個計劃，當我們覺得在開發經濟和資本成本方面，我們在開發上有了綠燈時，我們就可以將資本配置到這個範圍內。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

瑞銀的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

Can you talk about the gap in performance in suburban and urban markets in the fourth quarter? And do you expect that gap to remain similar in 2025?

能談談第四季郊區和城市市場的表現差距嗎？您預計到 2025 年這一差距還會保持相似嗎？

You say GAAP and performance, Michael, can you be a little more specific as to what you're looking for? Are you talking about like rent change as an example?

邁克爾，您說的是 GAAP 和績效，您能更具體地說明您在尋找什麼嗎？您指的是租金變動之類的例子嗎？

Yes. Yes, rent. Rent change exactly?

是的。是的，租。租金到底有變化嗎？

Yes. Yes. From a rent change standpoint, our suburban portfolio continues to outperform, we outperformed in the fourth quarter by about 40 basis points. And given some of the dynamics we've been talking about and what I refer to as it relates to the very, very low levels of supply in our suburban submarkets. That expectation is that it will continue moving forward.

是的。是的。從租金變化的角度來看，我們的郊區投資組合繼續表現出色，第四季度的表現優於其他投資組合約 40 個基點。考慮到我們一直在談論的一些動態，以及我所提到的與我們郊區子市場供應水平非常非常低有關的情況。我們期望它將繼續向前發展。

There are some places with return to office that you might see a little bit of a lift more significantly on the urban side. We haven't seen that quite yet, but it's certainly a possibility as we move through the year.

隨著復工復產，你可能會看到城市地區的復工率有更明顯的上升。我們還沒有看到這種情況，但隨著時間的流逝，這肯定是可能的。

That's helpful. And my second question is a bad debt assumption for '25 imply that delinquencies remain elevated versus historical level? -- what factors are you keeping you from reaching that historical level of bad debt?

這很有幫助。我的第二個問題是，25 年的壞帳假設是否意味著拖欠率相對於歷史水準仍然較高？ ——哪些因素阻礙你們的壞帳達到歷史水準？

Yes, Michael, Sean again. Yes, in terms of reaching the historical level of bad debt, I think the couple of schools of thought there. I mean people wonder is that achievable or not, the 50 to 70 basis points that we have realized historically, that is still a little bit of a TBD.

是的，邁克爾，又是肖恩。是的，關於達到歷史性的壞帳水平，我認為有幾種不同的觀點。我的意思是人們想知道這是否可以實現，我們歷史上實現的 50 到 70 個基點，這仍然有點有待確定。

The headwinds are certainly a tighter regulatory environment in terms of the processing of evictions. The timeline is taking some of that's just backlog and some of it is additional regulatory actions that have been adopted that slow the process. So that may be a little bit of a headwind to getting back to normal levels.

在處理驅逐事宜方面，不利因素無疑是更嚴格的監管環境。時間表上有些是積壓工作，有些是採取的額外監管措施，導致進程放緩。所以這可能會對恢復正常水平造成一點阻力。

At the same time though, there's always been an element of fraud in the system. And I would say that the industry has much better tools available nowadays than we ever had pre-COVID to weed that element out, screen them out essentially. So there's some puts and takes there. So we still have ways to go in terms of getting there.

但同時，系統中始終存在著詐欺的因素。我想說的是，如今業界擁有比疫情之前更好的工具來剔除這些因素，從本質上篩選它們。因此，這其中存在一些得失。所以，要達到這個目標我們還有很長的路要走。

I suspect my intuition is we will certainly be closer to the 50 to 70 and where we expect in 2025, but it's going to continue to take time to get there in certain markets, in particular, like in New York City, the District of Columbia, Monterey County, but you see a greater movement in those regions to support us getting there a little bit faster.

我的直覺是，我們肯定會更接近 50 到 70 這一目標，也就是我們在 2025 年所預期的目標，但在某些市場，特別是紐約市、哥倫比亞特區、蒙特利縣，要達到這一目標還需要一些時間，但你會看到這些地區有更大的運動來支持我們更快地到達那裡。

Alex Kim, Zelman & Associates.

亞歷克斯金（Alex Kim），澤爾曼及合夥人。

Just to clarifying one to begin. Is the development volume from the DFP included in the overall $1.6 billion number? And is there a number of -- or percentage even bookmarked the townhomes you're developing alongside your apartments?

只是為了澄清一點。總體 16 億美元的開發金額中是否包括來自 DFP 的開發金額？有多少人——或者說有多少人——將您在開發公寓時所使用的聯排別墅作為書籤？

Yes. Alex, it's Matt. So yes, the development volume includes -- it's mostly our own development and a little bit of DFP. So I think as we sit here today, Three of the 17 deals under construction are DFPs. And then as we look to our '25 starts, time will tell, but my guess is maybe similar proportion, probably 2 or 3 out of 10 or 12 starts would probably be DFP. Those come quicker. So they're a little -- not quite as easy to predict, but that's our expectation.

是的。亞歷克斯，我是馬特。所以是的，開發量包括——主要是我們自己的開發和一點點 DFP。所以我認為，今天我們坐在這裡，正在進行的 17 筆交易中有 3 筆是 DFP。然後，當我們回顧我們的 25 場比賽時，時間會告訴我們答案，但我的猜測可能是類似的比例，大約 10 場或 12 場比賽中會有 2 場或 3 場是 DFP。這些來得更快。因此它們有點——不太容易預測，但這是我們的預期。

As it relates to the townhome component, so we have the one 100% townhome community under construction today, which is a DFP deal that's Avalon Plano. And then we probably have two or three other communities currently under construction that have a townhome component to them. I'm just looking at the list now, like Norman, Wayne, two deals in New Jersey, Pleasanton out in the East Bay, actually has some town homes, Techridge in Austin has some townhomes. So any time that we can mix it in, we will, and we see that more and more with some of our garden communities, where we might do a very typical deal like look at an Avalon Wayne in Northern New Jersey, it's, I think, 470 or 450 units, it's maybe 50 townhomes and 400 stacked flats, and that's been a great formula for us.

由於它與聯排別墅部分相關，所以我們今天正在建造一個 100% 聯排別墅社區，這是一項 DFP 交易，即 Avalon Plano。然後我們可能還有兩三個目前正在建造的包含聯排別墅部分的社區。我現在正在看名單，例如諾曼、韋恩、新澤西的兩筆交易，東灣的普萊森頓實際上有一些聯排別墅，奧斯汀的 Techridge 也有一些聯排別墅。因此，只要我們可以，我們就會將其融入其中，而且我們越來越多地看到我們的一些花園社區，我們可能會做一個非常典型的交易，比如看看新澤西州北部的阿瓦隆韋恩，我想它有 470 或 450 個單位，可能有 50 套聯排別墅和 400 套堆疊公寓，這對我們來說是一個很好的方案。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then -- just another one on the BTR business. As you expand your exposure to the product type, are there any plans to ramp overhead this year? Or will you continue leveraging your existing capabilities?

知道了。這非常有幫助。然後——再談一下 BTR 業務。隨著您擴大對產品類型的接觸，今年有沒有計劃增加管理費用？或者您會繼續利用現有的能力嗎？

So one of the nice things about the DFP is that it doesn't come with the same internal overhead. We do third-party developers, their overhead through paying them developer fees, but it doesn't require incremental overhead on our platform. So we don't see that as a driver.

因此，DFP 的一個優點是它不會產生相同的內部開銷。我們與第三方開發者合作，透過向他們支付開發者費用來支付管理費用，但這並不需要在我們的平台上增加管理費用。所以我們不認為這是一個驅動因素。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ben Schall for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將會議交還給 Ben Schall 並請他致最後總結。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today, and we look forward to speaking with you soon.

感謝大家今天的加入我們，我們期待很快與你們交談。

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開您的線路，感謝您的參與。