艾芙隆海灣社區公司 (AVB) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to AvalonBay Community's first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructiosn)

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加 AvalonBay Community 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）

Your host for today's conference call is Mr. Jason Reilley, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Riley, you may begin your conference.

今天電話會議的主持人是投資者關係副總裁 Jason Reilley 先生。萊利先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, Julian, and welcome to AvalonBay Community's first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Before we begin, please note the forward-looking statements that may be made during this discussion. There are a variety of risks and uncertainties associated with forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially. There is a discussion of these risks and uncertainties in yesterday afternoon's press release as well as in the company's Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filed with the SEC.

謝謝你，朱利安，歡迎參加 AvalonBay Community 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。在我們開始之前，請注意本次討論中可能出現的前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述涉及各種風險和不確定性，實際結果可能有重大差異。昨天下午的新聞稿以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表和 10-Q 表中都討論了這些風險和不確定性。

As usual, the press release does include an attachment with definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures and other terms, which may be used in today's discussion. The attachment is also available on our website at www.avalonbay.com/earnings, and we encourage you to refer to this information during the review of our operating results and financial performance.

像往常一樣，新聞稿確實包含一個附件，其中列出了非公認會計準則財務指標和其他術語的定義和對賬，這些術語可能會在今天的討論中使用。附件也可在我們的網站 www.avalonbay.com/earnings 上找到，我們鼓勵您在審查我們的經營業績和財務表現時參考這些資訊。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Ben Schall, CEO and President of AvalonBay Communities, for his remarks. Ben?

接下來，我將把電話轉給 AvalonBay Communities 執行長兼總裁 Ben Schall，請他發表評論。本？

Thank you, Jason. I'm joined today by Kevin O'Shea, our Chief Financial Officer; Sean Breslin, our Chief Operating Officer; and Matt Birenbaum, our Chief Investment Officer. In keeping with our custom, we've also posted an earnings presentation, which we will reference during our prepared remarks, beginning on slide 4.

謝謝你，傑森。今天與我一起出席的還有我們的財務長 Kevin O'Shea、我們的營運長 Sean Breslin 和我們的首席投資長 Matt Birenbaum。按照慣例，我們也發布了一份收益報告，我們將在準備好的發言中參考該報告，從第 4 張投影片開始。

Recognizing that we are in a period of heightened uncertainty regarding the impact of policy actions on the broader economy, I want to start by emphasizing that we are very well positioned, given our portfolio makeup, our unique set of strategic capabilities, and our pre-eminent balance sheet, to continue to deliver superior earnings growth for shareholders.

認識到我們正處於政策行動對整體經濟影響高度不確定的時期，我想首先強調的是，鑑於我們的投資組合組成、我們獨特的戰略能力以及我們卓越的資產負債表，我們完全有能力繼續為股東帶來卓越的盈利增長。

We provide high-quality homes and leading apartment markets across the country in one of the most durable real estate asset classes with high margins and relatively low CapEx. We continue to proactively reshape our portfolio to optimize future returns, as I will touch on more in a moment. Our operating model transformation, including our leadership in technology and centralized services, continues to drive superior growth from our existing asset base and in new investment opportunities as we've detailed in prior quarters.

我們在全國範圍內提供高品質住宅和領先的公寓市場，這是最持久的房地產資產類別之一，利潤率高，資本支出相對較低。我們將繼續積極重塑我們的投資組合，以優化未來的回報，稍後我將詳細介紹。我們的營運模式轉型，包括我們在技術和集中服務方面的領導地位，繼續推動我們現有資產基礎和新投資機會的卓越成長，正如我們在前幾個季度所詳述的那樣。

As we look ahead, we want to particularly emphasize the earnings growth that is set to come from the development that we have underway. $3 billion of projects match-funded with attractively priced capital and projects where we have substantially locked in the cost of construction. As these projects lease up this year and next, they will produce a meaningful incremental stream of earnings that is unique to AvalonBay.

展望未來，我們要特別強調我們正在進行的開發項目將帶來的獲利成長。 30億美元的項目由價格誘人的資本配套資助，而這些項目的建設成本我們已經基本鎖定。隨著這些項目在今年和明年的租賃量增加，它們將產生有意義的增量收益流，這是 AvalonBay 獨有的。

As we evaluate future investment opportunities, our balance sheet and liquidity position are as strong as they've ever been, as Kevin will further emphasize. And for our next cohort of development starts, we remain focused on delivering 100 to 150 basis points of spread between development yields and both our cost of capital and underlying market cap rates. We are also uniquely positioned among our peers in having raised $890 million of equity on a forward basis at an average gross price of $226 per share, which we expect to deploy into accretive development.

當我們評估未來的投資機會時，我們的資產負債表和流動性狀況與以往一樣強勁，正如凱文進一步強調的那樣。對於我們下一批開發項目，我們仍將專注於在開發收益率與資本成本和基礎市場資本化率之間實現 100 至 150 個基點的利差。我們在同業中也具有獨特的優勢，已以每股 226 美元的平均總價格籌集了 8.9 億美元的遠期股權，我們預計將把這些股權用於增值開發。

Looking ahead, we feel well positioned to continue to execute against our strategic initiatives across a range of macroeconomic scenarios, and we will stay nimble from operations to our capital allocation decisions, as we have consistently done over time and throughout cycles. Slide 5 highlights our broadly diversified portfolio, which is well-positioned to continue to deliver superior growth.

展望未來，我們感到有能力繼續在一系列宏觀經濟情景下執行我們的策略性舉措，並且我們將保持從營運到資本配置決策的靈活性，就像我們在整個時間和週期中一貫做的那樣。投影片 5 重點介紹了我們廣泛多元化的投資組合，該投資組合具有良好的條件，可以繼續實現卓越的成長。

In terms of markets, 47% of our portfolio is in our established regions on the East Coast, 41% in our established regions on the West Coast, and now 12% in our expansion regions. At the sub-market level, we have continued to rotate capital to the suburbs in response to demographic and other housing trends, increasing our allocation there to 73%. And in terms of product, we think investors often overlook that 41% of our portfolio are garden communities, 41% are mid-rise buildings, and 18% are high-rise communities, providing a breadth of offerings and price points to meet customer needs.

就市場而言，我們投資組合的 47% 位於東海岸的成熟地區，41% 位於西海岸的成熟地區，現在 12% 位於擴張地區。在子市場層面，我們根據人口和其他住房趨勢，繼續將資金轉移到郊區，將那裡的配置增加到 73%。在產品方面，我們認為投資者經常忽略的是，我們投資組合中的 41% 是花園社區，41% 是中層建築，18% 是高層社區，提供廣泛的產品和價格點來滿足客戶的需求。

Turning to slide 6, our established regions are benefiting from several tailwinds, including strong occupancy and very limited new deliveries this year and in 2026, which should support healthy pricing power. To be more specific, we are projecting that deliveries in our established regions will drop to 80 basis points of existing stock in 2026, which equates to just 45,000 units across all those markets, minuscule levels of new deliveries that we have not seen in 20 years.

轉到投影片 6，我們現有的地區受益於幾個順風因素，包括今年和 2026 年強勁的入住率和非常有限的新交付量，這應該會支持健康的定價能力。更具體地說，我們預計，到 2026 年，我們成熟地區的交付量將下降至現有庫存的 80 個基點，這相當於所有這些市場僅有 45,000 輛新車，這是我們 20 年來從未見過的微不足道的新交付量。

And while we are pleased with the portfolios we have curated in our expansion regions, we do expect these markets to continue to face operating softness until deliveries decline and market occupancies rebuild. On the flip side, this softness provides opportunities as we execute on our longer-term portfolio optimization goals, selectively increasing our allocation to our chosen expansion regions.

雖然我們對在擴張區域精心策劃的投資組合感到滿意，但我們確實預計這些市場將繼續面臨營運疲軟，直到交付量下降和市場佔有率重建。另一方面，這種疲軟為我們執行長期投資組合優化目標提供了機會，選擇性地增加對我們選擇的擴張區域的配置。

Continuing on slide 7, rental affordability has also improved in our established regions, given solid income growth in recent years, resulting in rent-to-income ratios below pre-COVID levels. And finally, the relative affordability of renting compared to home ownership, given both elevated home values as well as mortgage rates, continues to provide a favorable backdrop for our operating fundamentals. Our portfolio positioning translated into healthy Q1 results, and as Sean will discuss further, is evident in our healthy operating metrics heading into peak leasing season.

延續第 7 張投影片，鑑於近年來收入的穩健成長，我們成熟地區的租金承受能力也有所改善，導致租金與收入比率低於新冠疫情之前的水平。最後，考慮到房價和抵押貸款利率的上漲，租房相對於買房來說相對更便宜，這繼續為我們的經營基本面提供有利的背景。我們的投資組合定位轉化為健康的第一季業績，正如 Sean 將進一步討論的那樣，這在我們進入租賃旺季的健康營運指標中得到了體現。

As noted on slide 8, we produced strong core FFO growth of 4.8% in Q1 relative to last year and exceeded our prior Q1 guidance by $0.03. Our outperformance in Q1 reflected $0.01 from revenue related to slightly higher occupancy, and $0.02 of favorable operating expenses, of which approximately half is timing related.

如幻燈片8所示，我們第一季的核心營運現金流（FFO）強勁成長，較去年同期成長4.8%，超出我們先前第一季的預期0.03美元。第一季的優異表現體現在入住率略有提升帶來的收入0.01美元，以及營運費用的下降0.02美元，其中約一半與時間因素相關。

Our Q2 guidance is generally consistent with our original expectations, with slide nine providing the components of change relative to Q1, the main driver of which being the sequential, seasonal uptick and operating expenses we experience each year. We're also reaffirming our full-year 2025 outlook, which as originally expected, includes sequential, internal, and external growth in the second half of the year.

我們對第二季的指引與我們最初的預期基本一致，第九張投影片提供了相對於第一季的變化部分，其主要驅動因素是我們每年經歷的連續、季節性上漲和營運費用。我們也重申了 2025 年全年展望，正如最初預期的那樣，包括下半年的連續、內部和外部成長。

With that, I'll turn it to Sean to further discuss the operating environment.

接下來，我將請 Sean 進一步討論操作環境。

All right, thanks, Ben. Moving to slide 10, as Ben noted, Q1 same-store revenue performance was slightly ahead of our plan, driven by modestly higher occupancy than anticipated. In terms of operating metrics, performance was healthy in Q1 and we're very well positioned as we head into the prime leasing season. Resident turnover continues to set new historical lows, which supports higher physical occupancy. For the month of April specifically, occupancy was roughly 30 basis points above the same time last year.

好的，謝謝，本。轉到第 10 張投影片，正如 Ben 指出的，第一季同店營收表現略高於我們的計劃，這得益於入住率略高於預期。從營運指標來看，第一季的業績表現良好，在進入黃金租賃季節之際，我們已做好充分準備。居民流動率持續創下歷史新低，支持了更高的實際入住率。具體來說，四月的入住率比去年同期高出約 30 個基點。

Additionally, our near-term inventory to lease is currently trending about 30 basis points below last year, which supports healthy pricing on new leases and renewals and is reflected in the nice uptake we've experienced as we move through Q1 into April. In terms of regional trends that may be of interest, the DC metro area continues to perform as expected with occupancy and availability generally in line with last year's levels.

此外，我們近期的庫存與租賃比率目前比去年低約 30 個基點，這支持了新租賃和續租的健康定價，並反映在我們在第一季度進入四月份時所經歷的良好增長中。就可能令人感興趣的區域趨勢而言，華盛頓特區大都會區繼續表現如預期，入住率和可用性基本上與去年的水平一致。

Additionally, we have actually experienced a modest reduction in the number of lease breaks year over year over the last few months. We started to hear from prospects and residents about the level of uncertainty in the job market, but to date, the velocity of activity and pricing in the region has not been impacted. About 12% of our resident base is employed by the government, so we're certainly monitoring the pace of leasing, renewal acceptance, and other metrics very closely.

此外，過去幾個月，我們實際上發現租約中斷的數量比去年同期略有減少。我們開始從潛在客戶和居民那裡了解就業市場的不確定性程度，但到目前為止，該地區的活動速度和定價尚未受到影響。我們的居民中約有 12% 受僱於政府，因此我們當然會密切關注租賃速度、續約接受度和其他指標。

In terms of the tech regions, notably Seattle and Northern California, we've continued to see healthy performance in Seattle, consistent with our expectations, which also had very strong performance in 2024 due to relatively strong job growth; return-to-office mandates from Amazon, Microsoft, and others; and the positioning of our primarily suburban portfolio in the region, which has benefited from minimal new supply.

就科技地區而言，特別是西雅圖和北加州，我們繼續看到西雅圖表現良好，符合我們的預期，由於就業增長相對強勁，2024 年西雅圖的表現也非常強勁；亞馬遜、微軟等公司的重返辦公室要求；以及我們主要在該地區郊區的投資組合的定位，受益於極少的新供應。

Northern California, specifically San Jose and San Francisco, continue to improve and at a pace that's slightly ahead of our original expectations. Performance in San Jose picked up at the end of last year, but San Francisco really started to gain momentum at the beginning of this year. We're currently more than 96% occupied across the region, about 50 basis points higher than last year, with San Francisco leading San Jose and the East Bay at 97.2%. Additionally, our year-to-date average asking rent has increased roughly 5%. Led by San Francisco, our year-to-date gains are roughly 7%.

北加州，特別是聖荷西和舊金山，持續改善，改善速度略高於我們最初的預期。聖荷西的表現在去年年底有所回升，但舊金山在今年年初才真正開始獲得發展勢頭。目前，我們整個地區的入住率超過 96%，比去年高出約 50 個基點，其中舊金山領先聖荷西和東灣，入住率達 97.2%。此外，今年迄今為止，我們的平均租金上漲了約 5%。在舊金山的帶動下，今年迄今我們的漲幅約為 7%。

In LA, while we gained a modest amount of occupancy sequentially from Q4 to Q1, we haven't been able to realize as much of an improvement in rate as we would have anticipated moving through Q1 and into April. Currently, availability and occupancy are roughly in line with last year. However, year-to-date asking rent growth is below historical norms at just 3%. We'll need to see better job growth in LA, which has been weak recently, to experience stronger performance throughout the remainder of this year.

在洛杉磯，雖然我們的入住率從第四季度到第一季連續獲得了適度增長，但在第一季和四月份，我們未能實現預期的入住率大幅提升。目前，供應量和入住率與去年大致持平。然而，今年迄今的租金漲幅低於歷史正常水平，僅 3%。我們需要看到洛杉磯近期就業成長表現較好，才能在今年剩餘時間內實現更強勁的表現。

Looking forward, our overall same-store portfolio metrics are flashing green, and we're heading into the prime leasing season from a position of strength so we could take advantage of opportunities as they unfold or shift our tactics in response to any change in the macro environment.

展望未來，我們的整體同店組合指標呈現綠色，我們正以強勢地位進入黃金租賃季節，因此我們可以利用不斷出現的機會，或根據宏觀環境的任何變化調整我們的策略。

Now I'll turn it to Matt to address our investment activity.

現在我請馬特來談談我們的投資活動。

All right. Thanks, Sean. I wanted to provide some more detail on how we are managing risk and optimizing opportunity in our development program given the current environment. Turning to slide 11, starting with our development already underway, we have 19 projects currently under construction and another four completed last year that are still in lease-up at an estimated total capital cost of $3 billion.

好的。謝謝，肖恩。我想提供更多細節，說明在當前環境下我們如何管理風險並優化開發計劃中的機會。轉到第 11 張投影片，從我們已經開始的開發項目開始，我們目前有 19 個項目正在建設中，另外還有 4 個項目去年完工，目前仍在租賃中，預計總資本成本為 30 億美元。

These investments have been entirely match-funded, meaning we source the capital required to build these projects at the same time that we started them, thereby locking in a favorable spread of 100 to 150 basis points between the cost of that capital and the projected initial return on these new investments. And these projects are generally bought out with hard costs locked in with our trade partners within 90 to 120 days of construction start.

這些投資完全是配套資金，這意味著我們在啟動這些項目的同時就籌集了建設這些項目所需的資金，從而鎖定了資本成本和這些新投資預計的初始回報之間 100 到 150 個基點的有利利差。這些項目通常在開工後 90 至 120 天內由我們的貿易夥伴以鎖定硬成本的方式買斷。

Across all of this development underway, we are currently running slightly under budget as we have seen some strong buyout savings on some of the more recent starts with subcontractors increasingly aggressive in bidding for work as their backlogs dwindle. As this pre-funded development completes lease up throughout this year and next, will drive outsized earnings growth.

在所有正在進行的開發項目中，我們目前的預算略低於預算，因為我們看到最近啟動的一些項目中出現了一些強勁的收購節省，隨著積壓訂單的減少，分包商在競標工作方面越來越積極。隨著這項預先融資的開發案在今年和明年完成租賃，將推動超額的獲利成長。

As shown on the slide, 2025 will be a trough year for us for new occupancies from our development book at 2,300 homes, and only 10% of those new occupancies occurred in the first quarter. Looking forward, we expect this to rise substantially through the balance of the year and to grow further to 2,800 homes in 2026.

如幻燈片所示，2025 年將是我們開發書籍中 2,300 套新住房入住率的低谷年，而且只有 10% 的新住房入住率發生在第一季。展望未來，我們預計這一數字將在今年餘下時間大幅上升，到 2026 年將進一步增長至 2,800 戶。

Turning to slide 12, our guidance at the beginning of the year anticipated increasing our start volume to $1.6 billion in 2025. These expectations have not changed, but it is important to note that we continue to maintain flexibility on this book of business, and our projected start activity is weighted more towards the back half of the year, with only $240 million started in Q1. If conditions change, we can certainly adjust our plans throughout the year. We have also largely pre-funded this activity through the equity forward transaction we completed last year at a favorable cost of capital.

翻到第 12 張投影片，我們年初的指引預計到 2025 年我們的起始交易量將增加到 16 億美元。這些預期並沒有改變，但值得注意的是，我們繼續對這筆業務保持靈活性，我們預計的啟動活動更集中在下半年，第一季僅啟動了 2.4 億美元。如果情況發生變化，我們當然可以全年調整計劃。我們也透過去年以優惠的資本成本完成的股權遠期交易為這項活動提供了大量預先資金。

With all the talk about tariffs, we also thought it would be helpful to provide the conceptual illustration on the right side of the slide, which shows how the total costs of a typical AvalonBay development break down between land; soft costs, including capitalized interests; and hard costs, with the hard costs further broken down between labor, subcontractor profit, oversight and supervision, and raw materials.

在討論關稅的同時，我們也認為在幻燈片右側提供概念說明會很有幫助，該說明顯示了典型的 AvalonBay 開發項目的總成本如何分解為土地、軟成本（包括資本化利息）和硬成本，其中硬成本進一步分解為勞動力、分包商利潤、監督和監管以及原材料。

Materials costs generally represent about 25% to 30% of our overall hard costs and 20 % of total project costs. And we estimate that with the mix of domestic and imported materials in our projects, the most recent tariffs might increase our total hard costs by about 5%, which would drive a roughly 3% to 4% increase in our overall total basis. While this is a meaningful increase and could be enough to tip some projects into being infeasible, these potential headwinds, which vary from project to project, are currently, in most cases, being more than offset by the larger macro backdrop of declining start activity.

材料成本通常占我們總硬成本的 25% 至 30% 和專案總成本的 20%。我們估計，由於我們的專案混合了國內和進口材料，最近的關稅可能會使我們的總硬成本增加約 5%，這將導致我們的總成本增加約 3% 至 4%。雖然這是一個有意義的成長，並可能足以使一些專案變得不可行，但這些潛在的阻力因專案而異，目前在大多數情況下，都被開工活動下降的宏觀背景所抵消。

We have great visibility into this phenomenon because we generally act as our own general contractor on almost all of our developments, and on those jobs we are actively bidding today, our phones are ringing off the hook with deeper bid coverage and stronger subcontractor availability than we have seen in years. While things are certainly subject to change, this bodes well for near-term potential starts.

我們對這一現像有很清晰的認識，因為我們在幾乎所有的開發項目中都充當自己的總承包商，而在我們今天積極競標的那些工作中，我們的電話響個不停，投標覆蓋範圍比過去幾年更廣，分包商的可用性也更強。儘管情況肯定會發生變化，但這預示著近期可能會出現良好開端。

As shown on slide 13, we are also continuing to make steady progress on our longer-term portfolio allocation goals as we execute on our portfolio trading strategy. Since the start of 2024, we have been able to increase our allocation to our expansion regions to 12% and increase our allocation to suburban submarkets to 73% through both buying and selling activity including closing on the eight-asset portfolio acquisition in Texas that we announced back in late February.

如投影片 13 所示，在執行投資組合交易策略的同時，我們也持續穩定地推動長期投資組合配置目標。自 2024 年初以來，透過買賣活動（包括完成我們在 2 月底宣布的在德州的八項資產組合收購），我們已經能夠將對擴張區域的配置增加到 12%，並將對郊區子市場的配置增加到 73%。

That transaction, which was funded with a combination of disposition proceeds and $235 million of equity issued at an attractive price of $2.25 a share, is underwritten to an initial stabilized yield of 5.1% at a very compelling basis of $230,000 per home for assets that have an average age of 11 years, considerably younger than our existing portfolio.

該交易的資金來自處置收益和以每股 2.25 美元的誘人價格發行的 2.35 億美元股票，初始穩定收益率為 5.1%，每套房屋 23 萬美元，這是一個非常有吸引力的基準，這些資產的平均使用年限為 11 年，比我們現有的投資組合年輕得多。

These acquisitions also provide local operating scale that will have spillover benefits to increase our operating margins at our existing Texas portfolio as well. We're excited about this transaction, which creates a strong foundation for our growth in this expansion region at a good time to be reallocating capital into these markets.

這些收購還提供了本地營運規模，這將產生溢出效益，從而提高我們現有德州投資組合的營運利潤率。我們對這筆交易感到非常興奮，它為我們在這個擴張區域的成長奠定了堅實的基礎，同時也為我們重新將資本分配到這些市場提供了良好的時機。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Kevin for an update on the balance sheet.

接下來，我將把任務交給凱文，讓他更新資產負債表。

Thanks, Matt. As you can see on slide 14, we enjoy a strong financial position with excellent liquidity, a high level of match funding, and a lowly leveraged balance sheet, reflecting our investment grade ratings of AAA and A- from Moody's and S&P. This financial strength supports our planned development starts while also providing capacity to fund further attractive investments that may arise.

謝謝，馬特。正如您在第 14 張投影片上看到的，我們的財務狀況良好，流動性極佳，配套資金水平高，資產負債表槓桿率低，這反映了穆迪和標準普爾給予我們的 AAA 和 A- 的投資級評級。這種財務實力支持我們計劃的開發啟動，同時也為可能出現的進一步有吸引力的投資提供資金能力。

Additionally, and most uniquely in our sector, we enjoy $890 million in undrawn equity capital that we raised last year at a gross price of $2.26 per share and an initial cost of about 5%. This will be an important driver of future earnings growth as we deploy this capital to new development starts later this year.

此外，在我們這個行業中最獨特的是，我們擁有 8.9 億美元的未提取股本，這些資本是我們去年以每股 2.26 美元的總價格和約 5% 的初始成本籌集的。當我們在今年稍後將這些資本部署到新的開發項目時，這將成為未來獲利成長的重要驅動力。

Moreover, we recently executed several financing transactions that improved our liquidity and access to cost-effective capital. We renewed and increased our secured credit facility to $2.5 billion, up from $2.25 billion, and extended the maturity to April 2030 from September 2026. In doing so, we also expanded our commercial paper program to $1 billion, up from $500 million previously.

此外，我們最近執行了幾筆融資交易，提高了我們的流動性和獲得具有成本效益的資本的機會。我們將擔保信貸額度從 22.5 億美元續約並增加至 25 億美元，並將期限從 2026 年 9 月延長至 2030 年 4 月。在此過程中，我們也將商業票據計畫從先前的 5 億美元擴大到 10 億美元。

This commercial paper program is backed off by availability under our credit facility and provides us with a cheaper source of floating rate debt than is available under our credit facility. Finally, we closed our four-year $450 million unsecured delayed draw term loan, which we've hedged to an effective fixed interest rate of 4.5%. We intend to draw fully on this term loan by late May.

此商業票據計劃由我們的信貸安排下的可用性支持，並為我們提供了比我們的信貸安排下更便宜的浮動利率債務來源。最後，我們結清了為期四年的 4.5 億美元無擔保延期提款定期貸款，並將其對沖為 4.5% 的有效固定利率。我們打算在五月底前充分利用這筆定期貸款。

With these transactions and the undrawn forward equity, we now enjoy $2.8 billion of liquidity. As a result of our excellent liquidity and our financial flexibility, we are exceptionally well-positioned to fund planned development starts and at the same time respond to challenges and opportunities in the current environment from a position of strength.

透過這些交易和未提取的遠距權益，我們現在擁有 28 億美元的流動資金。由於我們擁有出色的流動性和財務靈活性，我們完全有能力為計劃中的開發項目提供資金，同時以優勢地位應對當前環境中的挑戰和機會。

That concludes our prepared remarks. Julian, let's please open the line to questions.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。朱利安，請開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Eric Wolfe, Citibank.

（操作員指示）花旗銀行的 Eric Wolfe。

Hey, thanks. You touched upon this in your remarks, but your like-term effective rent growth has been a little bit lower than last year. So I was just wondering, from your perspective, if that's mainly because you're sort of leaning into occupancy more than you were last year, or if there's maybe a little bit of impact from the recent economic disruption that we've seen.

嘿，謝謝。您在評論中提到了這一點，但同期有效租金成長率比去年略低。所以我只是想知道，從您的角度來看，這是否主要是因為您比去年更傾向於入住率，或者是否可能受到我們所看到的最近經濟動蕩的一點影響。

Yes, Eric, it's Sean. As it relates to rent change, what I'd say is a couple things. First is we're generally tracking to plan as it relates to rent change. And as Ben and I noted, debt performance in Q1 was due to slightly higher occupancy. So we're basically tracking consistent with what we thought. As it relates to last year, really, a combination of different things.

是的，艾瑞克，我是肖恩。關於租金變化，我想說幾件事。首先，我們通常會追蹤與租金變化相關的計劃。正如本和我所指出的，第一季的債務表現是由於入住率略有提高。因此，我們的追蹤結果基本上與我們的想法一致。就與去年的情況而言，實際上，這是多種因素的結合。

But as you might remember, last year, we had an earlier acceleration of occupancy at the very beginning of the year, January and February. And so we hit harder on rate earlier, I would say, in the quarter. So from a year-over-year comp standpoint, that's really the delta that you're seeing there in terms of the -- think of it as the year-over-year change in asking rent and what we're seeing this year relative to last year.

但您可能還記得，去年年初，也就是 1 月和 2 月，我們的入住率就提早加速了。因此我想說，我們在本季早些時候對利率施加了更大壓力。因此，從同比角度來看，這實際上就是您所看到的增量——可以將其視為租金要價的同比變化以及今年相對於去年的變化。

That's helpful. And you've outlined this plan to grow your expansion markets to 25% of your portfolio, but you also mentioned staying nimble. So I was curious if there was anything that would happen from an economic or policy perspective that would cause you to rethink that plan? Just wondering if there's anything in the near term that would cause that allocation to change.

這很有幫助。您已經概述了將擴張市場擴大到投資組合的 25% 的計劃，但您也提到要保持靈活性。所以我很好奇，從經濟或政策角度來看，是否會發生什麼事情讓您重新考慮該計劃？只是想知道短期內是否會發生什麼事情會導致這種分配改變。

Eric, it's Ben. As you know, most of our movement towards our 25% target in expansion regions has been through trading. And so trading of assets out of our generally older assets, out of our established regions, and then reallocating that capital into our expansion regions. So capital markets environment, somewhat sort of agnostic to that.

艾瑞克，我是本。如您所知，我們實現擴張區域 25% 目標的大部分舉措都是透過交易實現的。因此，我們將資產從我們通常較舊的資產、已建立的區域中交易出去，然後將這些資本重新分配到我們的擴張區域。因此，資本市場環境在某種程度上是不可知的。

Really, I think it will become a function of what's happening in underlying transaction markets. They're continuing to be active but not necessarily overly fluid. And the extent that something were to dry up in the transaction markets, that maybe would keep us a little bit slower there. The extent that things are active, we'll continue to pursue and advance towards our goal.

確實，我認為它將成為基礎交易市場正在發生的事情的一個函數。他們繼續保持活躍，但不一定過於流動。如果交易市場出現某種程度的枯竭，我們的發展速度可能會稍微慢一些。只要事情還活躍，我們就會繼續追求並朝著我們的目標前進。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

史蒂夫‧薩誇 (Steve Sakwa)，Evercore ISI。

Yes, thanks. I guess maybe for Matt, I just wanted to circle back on the projected development starts a little bit and just maybe drill down a little deeper on maybe the checklist or things that you're going to be sort of monitoring most closely to kind of say go, no-go. Is it kind of 30,000-foot level things about the economy and overall job growth? Or how nuanced is it getting down to the individual project level and market?

是的，謝謝。我想也許對馬特來說，我只是想稍微回顧一下預計的開發開始時間，並更深入地研究清單或您將要密切監控的事情，以便決定是否進行。這是關於經濟和整體就業成長的 30,000 英尺層面的事情嗎？或者它對於單一專案層面和市場來說有多細緻？

Yes, hey, Steve. I mean, every project updates their pro forma when it comes to our investment committee for construction start. And so at the beginning of the year, we think we know where those projects are in terms of costs and in terms of NOI, and in terms of the spread there relative to the capital we've sourced to fund it, and relative to where assets would be trading in that market.

是的，嘿，史蒂夫。我的意思是，每個項目在提交給我們的投資委員會開工時都會更新其預估數據。因此，在年初，我們認為我們知道這些項目的成本和淨營運收入的情況，以及相對於我們為其籌集的資金的利差，以及相對於該市場資產交易的情況。

So it is deal by deal, and as we sit here at this moment, that pipeline of the remaining starts for the year look to be as profitable as we had thought at the beginning of the year or late last year or whenever we last marked those to market. So as things develop through the course of the year, the costs could change. Right now, we're seeing more good news than bad news on that front. Deals that we've bid recently, we're actually seeing costs lower than where they were two or three quarters ago, so that's helping. So that's one big input.

所以這是一項又一項的交易，而當我們此刻坐在這裡時，今年剩餘的開工項目看起來將像我們在年初或去年年底或上次按市場價格標記時所認為的那樣有利可圖。因此，隨著一年中事態的發展，成本可能會改變。目前，我們在這方面看到的好消息多於壞消息。我們最近競標的交易實際上顯示成本比兩三個季度前降低，所以這很有幫助。所以這是一個很大的投入。

NOIs is another big input. Obviously, if rents either start to rise or fall more meaningfully, that might change the projected yield on those deals, and then where the transaction market is. If we see significant changes to the transaction market that would change the equation of how the value of those assets is relative to where you could buy an asset or the yields relative to the cap rates, which are kind of tracking in the same direction, that would be the other thing we'd look at very carefully.

NOIs 是另一個重要輸入。顯然，如果租金開始大幅上漲或下降，這可能會改變這些交易的預期收益率，進而改變交易市場的狀況。如果我們看到交易市場發生重大變化，從而改變這些資產的價值相對於你可以購買資產的地方或相對於資本化率的收益率的等式，它們都朝著同一方向發展，這將是我們要非常仔細研究的另一件事。

Great, thanks. And maybe for Sean, just kind of looking at the stats on page 10 and listening to your comments, I realize things so far have played out kind of as expected, maybe a little bit better. Are you doing anything differently kind of as you think about the renewal process or trying to get ahead of things? Or is it pretty much business as usual until kind of there are darker clouds to the extent that they come? What proactive changes might you be making on the leasing front?

太好了，謝謝。也許對於肖恩來說，只要看一下第 10 頁的統計數據並聽取您的評論，我就會意識到到目前為止事情的進展都如預期的那樣，甚至可能更好一些。在考慮更新過程或試圖領先時，您是否做了一些不同的事情？或者一切照常，直到烏雲密布，情況變得嚴峻？您可能會在租賃方面做出哪些主動的改變？

Yes, Steve, good question. What I'd say to that is it really depends on the region and our view on the region. So to give you an example, let's take Los Angeles, which has had a weak employment environment mainly due to the entertainment sector. You've seen some things there in the ports that are a little bit concerning as it relates to the tariff impact and stuff like that.

是的，史蒂夫，這個問題問得好。我想說的是，這實際上取決於該地區以及我們對該地區的看法。舉個例子，以洛杉磯為例，該市就業環境不佳，主要是因為娛樂業。您在港口看到了一些有點令人擔憂的事情，因為它與關稅影響等有關。

So in a market like that, you probably would hedge slightly higher on occupancy and have more flexible renewal parameters for residents that are negotiating 30 days from now, 60 days from now, et cetera, regarding a commitment that they're making to a new lease. So I wouldn't say there's a global strategy. There is a unique market and sub-market strategy depending on the circumstances of that environment.

因此，在這樣的市場中，您可能會對入住率進行略高的對沖，並為正在協商 30 天後、60 天後等新租約承諾的居民提供更靈活的續約參數。所以我不會說存在一個全球戰略。根據具體環境的情況，存在獨特的市場和次市場策略。

So that's how I would think about it in terms of how we position it. If you start to see very, very dark macroeconomic clouds, so to speak, you might alter portfolio strategy overall. But I wouldn't say we're anywhere near that type of position where you're looking at something that's significant.

這就是我對我們如何定位它的看法。可以這麼說，如果你開始看到非常非常黑暗的宏觀經濟陰雲，你可能會改變整個投資組合策略。但我不會說我們已經接近那種正在關注重要事物的水平。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Jana Galan, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Jana Galan。

Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. This is [Jana on for Matt]. On the development pipeline, I appreciate you highlighting 2025 as kind of a lighter delivery year with three completions that are kind of more back-end weighted and walking us through the home counts. But could you kind of tie this into what type of FFO headwind this is in '25 versus '24 and how it will be a tailwind in 2026?

嗨，下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。這是[Jana 替換 Matt 上場]。在開發流程方面，我很感謝您強調 2025 年是交付量較小的一年，將有三棟樓竣工，這些樓盤更側重於後端建設，並向我們介紹了房屋數量。但是，您能否將其與 2025 年和 2024 年的 FFO 逆風類型以及 2026 年將如何成為順風聯繫起來？

Yes, this is Kevin. I want to make sure I'm kind of understanding. You want to understand how, given the cadence of occupancies out of our development book this year versus last year versus next year, how that plays through from an earnings growth headwind?

是的，這是凱文。我想確保我理解了。您想了解，考慮到我們今年、去年和明年的開發記錄的入住率節奏，獲利成長逆風將如何影響？

Exactly.

確切地。

Okay, yes, and back on slide 11 here, that's where we have the data for that. So as you look at '25 versus '24, obviously you have 2,300 homes being occupied this year on a projected basis versus 2,600 homes last year. So last year, if I recall correctly, we probably had maybe $45 million or so of development in Hawaii. maybe low $40 million range, $10 million to $15 million more than we guided to in February of this year, where we guided to $30 million of NOI.

好的，是的，回到投影片 11，那裡有我們的相關數據。因此，當您比較 25 年和 24 年時，顯然今年預計有 2,300 套房屋入住，而去年有 2,600 套。所以，如果我沒記錯的話，去年我們在夏威夷的開發投資大概在 4500 萬美元左右，大概在 4000 萬美元左右，比我們今年 2 月份的預期高出 1000 萬到 1500 萬美元，當時我們預期的淨運營收入為 3000 萬美元。

So certainly, there's a lot that happens on a rolling two-year basis that informs the development NOI number, but this is the easiest snapshot to look at, which is occupancies in a calendar year period, and there are 300 homes lower this year than last. So that's a driver towards less development NOI in '25 versus '24, so a little bit of a headwind there.

因此，當然，在連續兩年的基礎上有很多事情會影響開發 NOI 數據，但這是最容易查看的快照，即一個日曆年期間的入住率，今年的房屋數量比去年少了 300 套。因此，這是導致 25 年開發 NOI 低於 24 年的因素，因此存在一些阻力。

We also, if you're looking more broadly at the delta between our overall core FFO growth rate, which this year is healthy, given what we have forecast for the year of 3.5%, the other headwind we have relative to '24 was we had higher levels of interest income on cash last year versus this year. Those are the two biggest pieces if you look at core FFO growth relative to external growth platforms, referencing a base of what we get off the internal growth platform this year.

此外，如果您更廣泛地看待我們的整體核心 FFO 成長率之間的差異，考慮到我們預測的 3.5% 的成長率，今年是健康的，相對於 24 年我們面臨的另一個不利因素是，去年我們的現金利息收入水準高於今年。如果您看一下相對於外部成長平台的核心 FFO 成長，那麼這兩個是最大的部分，請參考我們今年從內部成長平台獲得的基礎。

Those are two pieces that I would call out for you, lower occupancies in 2025 and lower cash income. This actually came up in the last call where I was asked to quantify how many cents of earnings growth we anticipated this year off of external growth. And if I recall correctly, the estimate was $0.14, which equated to about 130 basis points of estimated external growth at '25 versus '24. And again, that was somewhat muted by lower occupancies and lower cash income.

我要提醒大家注意的兩點是，2025 年入住率將會下降，現金收入將會下降。這實際上是在上次電話會議中提出的，當時我被要求量化我們預計今年外部成長將帶來多少美分的收益成長。如果我沒記錯的話，估計數字是 0.14 美元，相當於 25 年對 24 年預計外部成長率約為 130 個基點。但入住率較低和現金收入較低又在一定程度上抑制了這一成長。

As you look into '26 there's more of a tailwind, so it's a good news story there, all equal, because we see ourselves going from 2,300 occupancies in 2025 to [2,800] homes next year. So one can anticipate a higher level of development NOI in 2026 versus this year, where again, in our initial outlook, we only had $30 million of development NOI forecast in 2025.

展望 26 年，順風勢頭更為強勁，所以這對我們而言是個好消息，因為我們預計入住人數將從 2025 年的 2,300 人增加到明年的 [2,800 人]。因此，可以預期 2026 年的開發 NOI 水準將高於今年，而在我們最初的預測中，我們預測 2025 年的開發 NOI 僅為 3,000 萬美元。

Thanks, Kevin. And then it's great to hear the DC is still maintaining its kind of strong momentum. I guess you being headquartered in greater DC, you probably have a better perspective and whether we're all kind of overreacting to news headlines. But just curious if you could kind of comment to what you're seeing, the mood on the ground, the job growth post the DOGE changes. And we're hearing from the office companies that there is a lot of good demand from defense companies and growth in Northern Virginia.

謝謝，凱文。很高興聽到 DC 仍然保持著強勁的發展勢頭。我想，由於您的總部設在華盛頓特區，您可能有更好的視角，並且知道我們是否對新聞頭條反應過度。但我只是好奇您是否可以對您所看到的情況、實際情況以及 DOGE 變化後的就業成長發表評論。我們從辦公公司了解到，國防公司和北維吉尼亞州的成長需求很大。

Yes, Jana, this is Sean. I'm happy to comment, and others can as well. What I would say is, generally speaking, there's a fair amount of chatter about it across the region. We certainly hear about it from prospects and residents in terms of just some uncertainty about, I got a job today, hopefully I have a job tomorrow kind of thing.

是的，Jana，這是 Sean。我很樂意發表評論，其他人也可以。我想說的是，總體來說，整個地區對這個問題的討論相當多。我們確實從潛在客戶和居民那裡聽說了一些不確定的事情，例如，我今天找到了工作，希望明天也能找到工作。

There's nothing in the data yet to say that it's impacting behavior materially. We'll see how the economic data unfolds here over the next several months, including job growth. But I'd say it's primarily discussion points right now in terms of what we're hearing on the ground at our communities and what I'd say just hearing in the general community in terms of what's happening in restaurants and various other things. That's really what you're hearing for the most part.

目前還沒有任何數據顯示它對行為產生了實質的影響。我們將關注未來幾個月的經濟數據如何發展，包括就業成長。但我想說，目前主要的討論點是我們在社區中聽到的消息，以及我想說的在整個社區中聽到的關於餐廳和其他各種事情發生的事情。這確實是您大部分聽到的內容。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Austin Wurschmidt，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Great, thanks, and good afternoon. I wanted to hit specifically on the renewal rate growth, which is really moderated and lower than it's been in some time in the first quarter, sort of recognizing there was some pickup in April. But what do you attribute to that moderating renewal rate growth and what's really holding you back from achieving a higher increase, and, I guess, whether you think you're near a low point any absent any macro-related headwinds.

太好了，謝謝，下午好。我想特別談談續約率的成長，它確實有所放緩，並且低於第一季的某個時候，但四月有所回升。但是，您認為是什麼導致了續約率增長放緩，又是什麼真正阻礙了您實現更高的增長，我想，您是否認為您已經接近低點，或者是否存在任何宏觀相關的阻力。

Yes, this is Sean. The first thing I would say is, as I mentioned earlier, things are basically tracking where we expected them to be in terms of overall blended rent change. As it relates to renewal specifically and even on the move-in side, what we communicated on the previous call when we provided our outlook is that we did expect rent change to be stronger in the second half of the year as compared to the first half of the year as a function of the year-over-year comps.

是的，這是肖恩。我想說的第一件事是，正如我之前提到的，就整體混合租金變化而言，情況基本上符合我們的預期。由於它與續約有關，甚至與入住方面有關，我們在上次電話會議上提供展望時表示，我們確實預計下半年的租金變化將比上半年更強勁，這是與去年同期相比的結果。

And what I mentioned earlier in response to a question is last year, occupancy strengthened much earlier than we anticipated in late January, February, so we were able to hit the gas a little harder on rate at that point in time. And so when you look at the year-over-year change in rate, there's just not as much to gain there at this point in time as compared to what we see as we move further through the second quarter into the back half of the year. So I would think of it that way in terms of the quarterly cadence of it and this being the point at which we see the weakest point of renewal rent growth, and we do see that lifting up as we move through the year.

我之前在回答問題時提到，去年，入住率的提高比我們預期的要早得多，是在 1 月底和 2 月份，所以我們當時能夠稍微加大天然氣的使用量。因此，當你查看利率的同比變化時，你會發現，與我們在第二季度進入下半年時看到的情況相比，目前的漲幅並不大。因此，我會從季度節奏的角度來考慮這個問題，這是我們看到的續約租金成長最薄弱的點，而且我們確實看到，隨著一年的推進，續約租金成長將會上升。

Helpful. And then I just wanted to hit on the investment side, I guess was the Sunbelt portfolio transaction you announced earlier this year kind of a unique opportunity given sub-market locations, product type, and just scale? But are you seeing other opportunities to make more meaningful headway into those expansion reasons and just the opportunity set given the supply backdrop that you've discussed in the call? Thanks.

很有幫助。然後我想談談投資方面，我想您今年早些時候宣布的 Sunbelt 投資組合交易是否是一個獨特的機會，考慮到子市場位置、產品類型和規模？但是，您是否看到了其他機會，以便在這些擴張原因以及您在電話會議中討論的供應背景下取得更有意義的進展？謝謝。

Hey, Austin, it's Matt. I'd say it was unique in the sense that the opportunity to buy eight assets from the same seller, they all kind of fit into our buy box. We are looking for something rather specific. These are all relatively simple walk-up garden assets in suburban sub-markets in our target geographies, and that doesn't happen all that often. So mostly, what we've done until this point has been buying kind of one-offs. And that's still kind of the base case assumption.

嘿，奧斯汀，我是馬特。我想說這是獨一無二的，因為我們有機會從同一個賣家購買八種資產，它們都適合我們的購買框架。我們正在尋找一些相當具體的東西。這些都是我們目標地區郊區子市場中相對簡單的步入式花園資產，這種情況並不常見。所以到目前為止，我們所做的大多是購買一次性產品。這仍然是一種基本假設。

So to the extent other opportunities present themselves that have a similar confluence of factors, we'll certainly be interested in it. I think I talked about it a little bit on the last call even as well. But frequently, when larger portfolios come to market, they're in more broad spread geographies than what we're looking for, or it includes a mix of different types of assets, including assets that we would have to lay off and take some risk with that. So this was a little bit of a unique situation.

因此，如果出現具有類似因素融合的其他機會，我們肯定會對此感興趣。我想我在上次通話中也談到了這一點。但通常，當較大的投資組合進入市場時，它們的地理分佈比我們所期望的更為廣泛，或包含不同類型的資產組合，包括我們必須放棄並承擔一定風險的資產。所以這是一個比較特殊的情況。

Now I would also say, just within the context, it's just a continuation of what we've been doing in terms of portfolio trading, selling assets from our established regions, redeploying that capital to the expansion regions. We've been chipping away at it for years, really. It just so happens this was an opportunity to do eight assets at one time.

現在我還想說，在這種背景下，這只是我們在投資組合交易方面所做工作的延續，出售我們現有地區的資產，將資本重新部署到擴張地區。事實上，我們已經為此努力了很多年。碰巧這是一個同時處理八項資產的機會。

The other element I'd add, Austin, is it does feel like, to us, a more opportune time to execute on that trade. You think about where rents in these markets have traveled over the last three years. You look at the basis at which we can enter these markets, and the Texas transaction being a good example of that, at $230,000 a door. And we're thinking about long-term, both earnings and value creation. If we can find opportunities and lean in more on the margin, we're looking to.

奧斯汀，我想補充的另一個因素是，對我們來說，現在確實是執行該交易的更合適的時機。想想過去三年這些市場的租金走勢如何。你看看我們進入這些市場的基礎，德州的交易就是一個很好的例子，每扇門的價格為 23 萬美元。我們考慮的是長期目標，包括獲利和價值創造。如果我們能夠找到機會並在邊緣上取得更多進展，我們就會尋求。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的傑米·費爾德曼。

Hi, this is Cooper Clark on for Jamie. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask if you're still seeing outperformance in your suburban assets versus urban across all of your markets year-to-date, and does the potential for a stronger urban recovery on the West Coast and Sunbelt have any effect on your target allocations moving forward?

大家好，我是 Cooper Clark，為 Jamie 播報。感謝您回答這個問題。我想問一下，今年迄今為止，您是否仍然看到郊區資產在所有市場中的表現優於城市資產，西海岸和陽光地帶城市復甦的潛力是否對您未來的目標配置有​​任何影響？

Yes, Cooper. This is Sean. I could probably take the first one, and Matt or Ben could talk about the allocation topic. It depends on what metric you're looking at in terms of outperformance. In terms of revenue growth year over year, the suburban portfolio is outperforming.

是的，庫柏。這是肖恩。我可能會選擇第一個，然後 Matt 或 Ben 可以討論分配主題。這取決於你以什麼指標來衡量其優異表現。從營收年增來看，郊區投資組合表現優異。

If you're looking at sort of near-term rent change, that's a little bit more of a push right now, I'd say in part due to recent trends in San Francisco getting stronger. And some general improvement and a couple of other urban areas. Seattle is an example. It's not that urban Seattle is great, but on a year-over-year basis, when you start looking at asking rents and then rent change, it's starting to get better. So depending on which metric you're looking at, you get a different answer there. One's kind of a push, as I said, and the other is still tilting suburban.

如果您正在考慮近期的租金變化，那麼現在的推動力會更大一些，我想部分原因是舊金山最近的趨勢越來越強勁。還有一些整體改善和其他幾個城市地區。西雅圖就是一個例子。並不是說西雅圖市區有多好，但從同比來看，當你開始關注租金要價和租金變化時，情況開始變得更好。因此，根據您所查看的指標，您會得到不同的答案。正如我所說，一種是推動力，另一種仍向郊區傾斜。

I'd just add on to that, as it relates to the overall portfolio strategy and the expansion regions. It's still, across our geography, both expansion and established regions, '25 and even '26, there's still more supply as a percentage of stock, urban than suburban. That surprised me a little bit because you would have thought that the urban supply spigot would have been shut off a couple years ago.

我只是想補充一點，因為它與整體投資組合策略和擴張區域有關。在我們的地理範圍內，無論是擴張地區還是成熟地區，25 年甚至 26 年，城市的供應量佔庫存的比例仍然高於郊區。這讓我有點吃驚，因為你會認為城市供水龍頭幾年前就被關閉了。

Those deals take longer to build. They're easier to entitle. Sometimes there's other things driving it, like opportunity zones. I would say the longer-term supply dynamics still favor the suburbs, at least in the expansion regions we've selected. I can't speak to the Sunbelt writ large.

這些交易需要更長的時間來達成。它們更容易獲得授權​​。有時還有其他因素推動它，例如機會區。我想說，長期供應動態仍然有利於郊區，至少在我們選擇的擴張區域是如此。我無法廣泛地談論陽光地帶。

So when you combine that with the demographic factors in terms of aging of the population where people want to live and the regulatory overlay, which is more constraining in the urban jurisdictions, all that would say, yes, I mean, we're absolutely still believers. We're much more comfortable betting over the next 10 years on suburban Denver versus city of Denver, on suburban Charlotte versus in the middle of the city. You think about Miami versus South Florida writ large. We do tend to continue to favor the suburbs in all of those regions.

因此，當你將其與人們想要居住的人口老化和監管覆蓋等人口因素結合起來時，城市管轄範圍內的限制更多，所有這些都會說，是的，我的意思是，我們絕對仍然相信。在未來 10 年，我們更願意押注丹佛郊區與丹佛市、夏洛特郊區與市中心。你可以想像一下邁阿密與南佛羅裡達之間的對比。我們確實傾向於繼續青睞所有這些地區的郊區。

Thank you. And then switching over to turnover, just wondering how much of the lower turnover is driven solely by lower tenant move-outs to buy homes versus other factors and maybe benefits from the horizon rollout? I guess if tenant move-outs to buy homes return to pre-pandemic levels, do we still have turnover at historical lows?

謝謝。然後轉到營業額，我只是想知道較低的營業額有多少僅僅是由於較低的租戶搬出購買房屋而造成的，而不是其他因素，也許是 Horizo​​​​n 推出帶來的好處？我想，如果租戶搬出購買房屋的人數恢復到疫情前的水平，我們的營業額是否仍處於歷史低點？

Yes, Cooper, good question. What I would tell you is that the -- for the last several quarters now, we've seen sort of move-outs to buy, if you want to describe it that way, at relatively low levels, yet kind of 8% to 9% range. But the overall level of turnover has continued to come down. So I would think of it as the move-out piece on the home side being relatively stable. There are other factors that are driving people's desire to stay longer with us beyond that.

是的，庫珀，問得好。我想告訴你的是，在過去的幾個季度裡，我們看到了某種程度的購買轉移，如果你想這樣描述的話，處於相對較低的水平，但在 8% 到 9% 的範圍內。但整體營業額水準持續下降。所以我認為主場那邊的搬離部分是相對穩定的。除此之外，還有其他因素促使人們希望與我們保持更長時間的聯繫。

So certainly, to the extent that you saw an increase in people moving out to purchase at home would have an impact, yes, but you've got all of the other factors moving south, so to speak. So you'd have to sort of see some movement in all of those different reasons for people to move out to start to see a trend up in a meaningful way, well beyond move out to buy a home. And even when you look at move out to buy a home, if you refer back to what Ben described earlier, that is increasingly an unaffordable substitute in our established regions.

所以，當然，從某種程度上來說，如果你看到越來越多的人搬出去買房，那肯定會產生影響，是的，但是可以說，其他所有因素都在向南發展。因此，你必須看到人們搬出去的所有不同原因有所變化，才能開始看到一個有意義的趨勢，遠遠超出搬出去買房的範圍。即使你考慮搬出去買房，如果你回顧一下本之前所描述的，你會發現，在我們現有的地區，這越來越是一種難以承受的替代方案。

And even now where we're seeing numbers from homebuilders and in the resale market where there's some softening, most of the markets that you're hearing about where that's occurring tend to be in the Sunbelt, where there's some excess inventory either from home builders or the resale inventory is building up, you're starting to see some softening in pricing. In the established regions that spread is so wide, you'd have to see a significant erosion in both housing values and then declines in interest rates to make those homes much more affordable than they are today relative to renting.

即使現在我們看到來自房屋建築商和轉售市場的數據有所疲軟，你所聽到的大多數出現這種情況的市場往往位於陽光地帶，那裡有一些來自房屋建築商的過剩庫存或轉售庫存正在積累，你開始看到價格有所疲軟。在分佈如此廣泛的成熟地區，你必須看到房價大幅下跌，然後利率下降，才能使這些房屋的價格比現在租房更便宜。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的亞當·克萊默。

Hey, guys, thanks for the time here. I think last quarter, you kind of framed the job growth outlook for the year as moderating but healthy. I was wondering as you kind of sit here today, obviously a lot has changed. It's just been a few months, but a lot changed in the macro. Wondering what you guys are kind of forecasting, or what's the third-party forecast that you guys use and kind of base your guidance and thoughts around how that's changed, if it has at all, in terms of the job growth outlook for the year?

嘿，夥計們，感謝你們在這裡的時間。我認為上個季度，您認為今年的就業成長前景是溫和但健康的。我很好奇，當你今天坐在這裡時，顯然很多事情都改變了。雖然才過了幾個月，但宏觀發生了許多變化。想知道你們的預測是怎樣的，或者你們使用的第三方預測是什麼，並且根據今年的就業成長前景如何變化（如果有的話）來製定指導和想法？

Yes, Adam, it's Ben. I'll take that. So going into the year, we looked to NABE, the National Association of Business Economists, looked at their consensus in terms of projected job growth. And to your point, it was moderating expectations relative to 2020 or to the tune of 1 million for net new jobs. Given the last couple of months and given uncertainty and given some of the policy impacts on growth, that consensus estimate has come down more to the tune of kind of 1 million net new jobs. So still net positive, but definitely some more sort of concerning horizons out there that we're closely monitoring.

是的，亞當，我是本。我會接受的。因此，進入今年以來，我們關注了美國全國商業經濟學家協會 (NABE)，並了解了他們在預計就業成長方面的共識。正如您所說，相對於 2020 年而言，這是在緩和預期，即新增就業機會淨增加 100 萬個。考慮到過去幾個月的情況、不確定性以及一些政策對成長的影響，這一普遍預期已下降至新增就業人數約 100 萬個。因此，這仍然是淨利好消息，但肯定存在一些更令人擔憂的情況，我們正在密切關注。

Okay, great. And then just switching gears, wondering in terms of kind of the renewals for May and June, wondering if you're able to kind of provide disclosure, just what you're going on with renewals for these couple months and just kind of the general rule of thumb as to what that might actually result in terms of signed renewals.

好的，太好了。然後換個話題，想知道 5 月和 6 月的續約情況，想知道您是否能夠提供披露，這幾個月的續約情況如何，以及這實際上可能對簽署的續約產生什麼影響的一般經驗法則。

Yes, I mean, Sean, in terms of those renewal offers, they're in the low to mid 5% range. And then we typically, depending on the environment, see anywhere from 100 to 150 basis points of spread between where they go out and where they settle. So it gives you some sense of the general range.

是的，肖恩，我的意思是，就這些續約優惠而言，它們的利率處於 5% 到 5% 的低點到中位數範圍內。然後，我們通常會根據環境，看到它們的輸出位置和結算位置之間的利差在 100 到 150 個基點之間。所以它能讓你對整體範圍有所了解。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Rich Hightower, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的里奇‧海托爾 (Rich Hightower)。

Good afternoon, everybody. I just want to go back to the Texas portfolio deal really quickly. So I think market reaction to the initial yield or even the stabilized yield was maybe not so positive. But if I think about the math on Avalon's source of funds, you issued OP units at [$2.25], which is kind of at the midpoint of FFO guidance is around a 5% implied equity yield and even lower than that if we think about AFSO. So that's attractive your cost of debts inside of that.

大家下午好。我只是想盡快回到德州投資組合交易的話題。因此我認為市場對初始收益率甚至穩定收益率的反應可能不是那麼積極。但是，如果我考慮 Avalon 的資金來源，您以 [2.25 美元] 的價格發行了 OP 單位，這處於 FFO 指導的中點，隱含股權收益率約為 5%，如果我們考慮 AFSO，則甚至低於該收益率。因此，其中的債務成本很有吸引力。

You did use some cash to fund part of the Dallas portfolio. So just help us understand how we should think about sort of cost of capital, source of funds, how you thought about it relative to that pricing. And then these units are 11 years old on average. Is there a CapEx on the way that would sort of skew that calculation. Just help me think through the math there, if you don't mind.

您確實使用了一些現金來資助達拉斯投資組合的一部分。因此，請幫助我們了解我們應該如何考慮資本成本、資金來源，以及您如何看待相對於定價的問題。這些單位的平均年齡為 11 歲。是否存在資本支出，因而對計算產生影響？如果您不介意的話，請幫我思考那裡的數學問題。

I think, Rich, you're headed in the right direction there. Maybe I'll make a couple of clarifications. So you split it into two transactions just in terms of how we funded it. The Austin deals were funded through 1031 exchanges, so very consistent with how we've been executing on our trading activity over the last number of years. The Dallas transaction was funded through a combination of their down rate units for us versus operating partnership units.

我認為，里奇，你的方向是正確的。也許我應該做一些澄清。因此，根據我們如何提供資金，您可以將其分為兩筆交易。奧斯汀交易的資金來自 1031 交易所，這與我們過去幾年的交易活動執行情況非常一致。達拉斯交易的資金來自他們為我們提供的降價單位和營運合作夥伴單位的組合。

But the math that you're indicating is consistent with our math, which is an initial cost of capital at $2.25 and then around 5%. And so when you line that up relative to our initial stabilized yield on this transaction at 5.1, kind of right in that type of range. And if we find opportunities where that initial yield relative to our cost of capital is relatively on square with itself, but we can advance our portfolio allocation objectives, we'll do that.

但您指出的數學與我們的數學一致，即初始資本成本為 2.25 美元，然後約為 5%。因此，當您將其與該交易的初始穩定收益率 5.1 進行比較時，它就處於該範圍內。如果我們發現機會，使初始收益率相對於資本成本相對穩定，但我們可以推進投資組合配置目標，我們就會這樣做。

Then there's the added elements of the benefits of scale. And there's a micro dynamic as it related to this portfolio. Not only was the these were the sub-markets and the product type that we wanted, but there was also very heavy geographic overlap, close proximity to our existing assets in the market. So the acquisitions benefited from that, but also our existing assets in those markets benefit from that additional density as you think about our increased neighborhooding.

然後還有規模效益的附加因素。並且存在與該投資組合相關的微觀動態。這些不僅是我們想要的子市場和產品類型，而且它們在地理上重疊度很高，與我們在市場上的現有資產非常接近。因此，收購不僅受益於此，而且當您考慮到我們擴大的鄰裡關係時，我們在這些市場的現有資產也受益於額外的密度。

And then a little bit more broadly, we are now at the point -- and this is the type of step function type of opportunity, not huge, but step function type of opportunity where we can get a more fulsome team on the ground. Our operating scale is closer to what you would think about as a full region. And so for our next acquisition, either an individual asset or a portfolio, we can then bring those assets on at an even lower marginal type of cost.

從更廣泛的角度來看，我們現在正處於這樣一個階段——這是一個階梯式機會，雖然不是很大，但卻是一個階梯式機會，我們可以在這個機會中建立一個更強大的團隊。我們的營運規模更接近您所認為的整個區域。因此，對於我們的下一次收購，無論是單一資產還是投資組合，我們都可以以更低的邊際成本收購這些資產。

Okay, that's actually very helpful. And then is there any sort of CapEx on the come given the age of these assets?

好的，這確實非常有幫助。那麼，考慮到這些資產的使用年限，未來是否會產生任何形式的資本支出？

Yes, so we did underwrite some upfront CapEx like we do on most acquisitions that should cover that. And what I would say is the way to think about it in general, the assets on average are 11 years old. So that is younger than our existing portfolio. I think the average age is 18 or 19 years old. So kind of on a dollars-per-door basis, the CapEx on a go-forward basis, we would not expect to be higher than our portfolio as an average. In fact, it might be a little bit less because these are simple garden assets. There's no parking decks. There's no enclosed corridors, that kind of thing.

是的，所以我們確實承保了一些前期資本支出，就像我們在大多數收購中所做的那樣。我想說的是，從整體來看，這些資產的平均使用年限為 11 年。因此，這比我們現有的投資組合更年輕。我認為平均年齡是18或19歲。因此，以每門美元為基礎，未來的資本支出，我們預計不會高於我們投資組合的平均水平。事實上，可能還要少一點，因為這些都是簡單的花園資產。沒有停車場。沒有封閉的走廊之類的東西。

Okay, but that would not be included in either the yield or that $230,000 a door calculation, just to be clear, right?

好的，但是這既不包括在收益中，也不包括在每扇門 230,000 美元的計算中，只是為了清楚起見，對嗎？

The $230,000 a door does not include the upfront CapEx. The 5-1 yield does include. That's a stabilized yield, so that's with our operations, and that is with the initial CapEx we plan to put into it into the denominator.

每扇門 23 萬美元的價格不包括前期資本支出。5-1 的收益確實包括。這是穩定的收益率，與我們的營運有關，並與我們計劃投入分母的初始資本支出有關。

Got it. All right. Thank you, guys. Appreciate it.

知道了。好的。謝謝你們。非常感謝。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

Good afternoon. Thanks a lot for taking my question. During your prepared remarks, you called out Northern California as a particularly strong market, so can you talk a little bit about what's driving that going forward?

午安.非常感謝您回答我的問題。在您的準備好的演講中，您稱北加州是一個特別強勁的市場，那麼您能否稍微談談推動其未來發展的因素？

Yes, Michael, it's Sean. I mean, I think there's a couple of things, but particularly for the city of San Francisco and the various sub-markets within it, I think it's a combination of really three things, four things actually. One, return-to-office mandates that have accelerated in part due to an improvement in the quality of life on the ground in terms of some of the concerns that persisted over the last couple of years getting modestly better kind of month by month. based on what we're seeing and what we're hearing from our teams, prospects, and others. So kudos to the mayor and others for the efforts they're putting forth there.

是的，邁克爾，我是肖恩。我的意思是，我認為有幾件事，但特別是對於舊金山市及其內部的各個子市場而言，我認為這實際上是三件事、實際上是四件事的結合。首先，重返辦公室的規定有所加快，部分原因是當地生活品質有所改善，過去幾年一直存在的一些問題正在逐月略有改善。根據我們所看到的情況以及我們從我們的團隊、潛在客戶和其他人那裡聽到的情況。因此，我們要對市長和其他人所做的努力表示讚賞。

We are hearing about some pickup and job growth and some office leasing that's getting better. So that's helpful in terms of people wanting to bring jobs into the city. AI is certainly a big part of that. And then supply continues to dwindle to very negligible levels I think we're talking about, as you get into 2026.

我們聽說就業市場回暖，辦公室租賃情況也逐漸改善。這對於想要為城市帶來就業機會的人來說是有幫助的。人工智慧無疑是其中的重要組成部分。然後，我認為，隨著進入 2026 年，供應量將繼續減少到我們可以忽略的水平。

As an example, to give you a sense of where things have been, I'm talking about like 700 units being delivered across the entire San Francisco MSA. That is probably a 20-, 30-year low. So you get a combination of all those factors, all of them influencing sort of current performance. And to the extent they're durable from a demand standpoint, yes, those drivers, the supply side will be negligible for the foreseeable future.

舉個例子，為了讓你了解事情的進展情況，我說的是在整個舊金山 MSA 交付了 700 個單元。這可能是 20 年或 30 年來的最低水準。因此，你會得到所有這些因素的組合，它們都會影響目前的表現。從需求角度來看，就其持久性而言，是的，這些驅動因素在可預見的未來對供應方面的影響將微不足道。

Got it. And as my follow up, I don't know if you said it discreetly, but you've maybe provided some of the numbers that go into it, but with something like renewals for the second quarter in the high fours to low fives based on based on where they settle in. But what are you expecting in terms of your second-quarter blended rate? Thanks.

知道了。作為我的後續提問，我不知道您是否謹慎地說過，但您可能提供了一些相關的數字，但根據他們所處的位置，第二季度的續約數量在四成到五成之間。但是您對第二季的混合利率有何預期？謝謝。

Yes, we didn't provide that specific guidance, but I did mention that renewal offers were going out in the low to mid-5% range.

是的，我們沒有提供具體的指導，但我確實提到續約優惠的幅度在 5% 到 5% 的低點到中位數之間。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

亞歷山大·戈德法布、派珀·桑德勒。

Hey, good afternoon, and thank you for taking my question. I don't think it was asked, but, I mean, a lot's been covered. The seasonal OpEx increase in the second quarter, can you just walk through that? I always think about leasing costs more hitting in sort of third quarter when the units actually when more of the units have fully turned. But maybe this is just leasing costs, or what else is driving the seasonal impact in the second quarter?

嘿，下午好，感謝您回答我的問題。我不認為有人問過這個問題，但是，我的意思是，很多問題都已經涵蓋了。第二季的季節性營運支出增加，可以簡單介紹一下嗎？我一直認為租賃成本會在第三季達到更高水平，因為那時更多的單位已經完全轉出。但也許這只是租賃成本，或者還有什麼因素導致了第二季的季節性影響？

Yes, Alex, it's Sean. I'm happy to take that one. So sequentially from Q1 to Q2, there's kind of three or four main drivers. Most are normal, but there are a couple of unusual ones. The unusual one is, as noted, we had some benefit in terms of lower OpEx in Q1 of this year related to property taxes, some appeals, and some assessments that came in lower than anticipated. So about a third of the increase is related to the benefit we sort of realized in the first quarter, bringing the base down, if you want to think about it that way. So if you look at the absolute increase from quarter to quarter, about a third relates to just that piece of it.

是的，亞歷克斯，我是肖恩。我很高興接受這個。因此，從第一季到第二季度，依序有三到四個主要驅動因素。大多數都是正常的，但也有幾個不尋常的。不尋常的是，如上所述，我們在今年第一季的營運支出降低方面獲得了一些好處，這些好處與財產稅、一些上訴以及一些低於預期的評估有關。因此，如果您願意這樣想的話，大約三分之一的成長與我們在第一季實現的收益有關，從而降低了基數。因此，如果你看一下每季的絕對成長，你會發現大約三分之一與其中的一部分有關。

And then, as you pointed out, turn costs in terms of if you have higher expirations in Q2, you tend to see more turnover in Q2. Also, seasonally, we start to increase what we call non-routine or maintenance projects in the spring season. It's kind of spring through the summer, but you want to get started in the spring to have the benefit of those projects being completed for summer leasing season. So you've got a number of things like that. You can increase marketing, various other categories. So a lot of that is normal seasonal trends. I'd say the one unusual thing is, again, about a third of it relates to what happened in the first quarter with some benefit in areas that were not anticipated.

然後，正如您所指出的，如果第二季的到期日較多，那麼週轉成本往往會在第二季看到更多的營業額。此外，從季節性角度來看，我們在春季開始增加所謂的非例行或維護項目。現在就像春天穿過夏天一樣，但你希望在春天開始，以便在夏季租賃季節之前完成這些項目。所以你得到了很多類似的東西。您可以增加行銷和其他各種類別。其中很多都是正常的季節性趨勢。我想說的一件不尋常的事情是，其中約三分之一與第一季發生的事情有關，並且在一些未曾預料到的領域獲得了一些好處。

Okay. And then the second question is, in the opening comments, you guys talked about that you were hearing some resident concerns, but you weren't seeing anything of the fundamentals. Leasing was still strong. Then there was a direct question on DC where you mentioned resident concerns. But I want to go back to just the general and the opening statement.

好的。第二個問題是，在開場白中，你們談到聽到了一些居民的擔憂，但沒有看到任何基本情況。租賃業務依然強勁。然後您直接提問了關於 DC 的問題，提到了居民的擔憂。但我只想回到整體情況和開場白。

Can you just talk about that? Because you're the only apartment REIT that so far has really talked about resident concerns. So just curious, in your experience, do resident concerns, is that usually a good indicator for you guys that bad stuff's about to happen? Or there's just normal nervousness among people with their lives. And sometimes, it does portend an economic downturn or something; other times, it doesn't. So I'm just trying to figure out how reliable that sort of feedback from residents is.

你能簡單談談這個嗎？因為你們是迄今為止唯一一家真正談論居民關切的公寓房地產投資信託基金。所以只是好奇，根據您的經驗，居民的擔憂是否通常是一個好的指標，預示著壞事即將發生？或者這只是人們對自己的生活正常的緊張情緒。有時，它確實預示著經濟衰退或其他情況；有時則不然。所以我只是想弄清楚來自居民的這種回饋有多可靠。

Yes, Alex, it's Sean. I'm happy to take that again. What I said in my prepared remarks and then just reinforced it a couple questions ago is that we have not seen any impact on our data in terms of leasing velocity, renewal acceptance, pricing, et cetera, across the region. But I did say, and I think other people are hearing this and may have said it as well on calls, is that there's chatter in the market, as you might imagine, from people that are prospects, residents, or just people in the general community wondering about, if I have a job today, will I have a job tomorrow? What's the impact of this going to be over time, et cetera?

是的，亞歷克斯，我是肖恩。我很高興再次接受這個機會。我在準備好的發言中說過，並且在幾個問題之前再次強調，我們沒有看到整個地區的租賃速度、續約接受度、定價等方面的數據受到任何影響。但我確實說過，而且我認為其他人也聽到了這一點，可能在電話中也說過，正如你可能想像的那樣，市場上有來自潛在客戶、居民或普通社區人士的閒聊，他們想知道，如果我今天有工作，明天還會有工作嗎？隨著時間的推移，這會產生什麼影響？等等？

That's not scientific data. That's just data that's coming through in a variety of different ways. So I'd say people are a little anxious about it for sure, not unheard of given what's happening in the environment. And obviously that's happening not just here in DC. A lot of federal employment is spread around the country, too.

那不是科學數據。這只是透過各種不同方式傳輸的資料。所以我想說人們肯定對此有點焦慮，考慮到目前的環境狀況，這種情況並非聞所未聞。顯然，這種情況不僅發生在華盛頓特區。許多聯邦政府僱員也分佈在全國各地。

So I think you're hearing that chatter. It doesn't mean that something's happening tomorrow. Typically, when we hear that kind of chatter, if there's something that's going to happen, it's typically a lag effect anywhere from six to eight months in terms of what it actually means in terms of someone making a different decision.

所以我想你聽到那些閒聊了。這並不意味著明天就會發生某事。通常，當我們聽到這種閒聊時，如果某件事即將發生，那麼就其對某人做出不同決定的實際意義而言，通常存在六到八個月的滯後效應。

They tend to hunker down first, and you see them take out discretionary spend, like you're hearing about the airlines now as an example, withdrawing guidance and things of that sort because of people not making decisions on discretionary costs. But in terms of our historical experience, people tend to want to stay where they are in their homes when there is some uncertainty. And so I think that's all you're hearing is a little bit of uncertainty, people wondering how it's going to unfold, and leave it at that.

他們往往會先蹲下來，然後你會看到他們拿出可自由支配的開支，就像你現在聽到的航空公司那樣，由於人們沒有對可自由支配的成本做出決定，他們撤回了指導和諸如此類的事情。但根據我們的歷史經驗，當存在不確定性時，人們往往希望待在自己的家中。所以我認為，你們所聽到的只是一些不確定性，人們想知道事情將如何發展，然後就此打住。

That's perfect. I really appreciate that. Thank you.

那很完美。我真的很感激。謝謝。

Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho Securities.

Haendel St. Juste、瑞穗證券。

Hey, guys. Good afternoon. A couple of quick ones from me. So first, I just wanted to go back and try once more if you guys are willing to provide a guide for second-quarter blends. And then my real question was more on LA and Boston, two markets which look a little slower relative to the rest of your coastal markets. Curious about your kind of expectations for those markets the next couple of quarters.

嘿，大家好。午安.我簡單說幾點。所以首先，如果你們願意為第二季的混合物提供指南，我只是想回去再試一次。然後我真正的問題是關於洛杉磯和波士頓，這兩個市場相對於其他沿海市場來說看起來稍微慢一些。我很好奇您對未來幾季這些市場的預期。

Yes, Haendel, on the guides, all I would say is we are providing where the renewal offers went out in the low to mid-fives, so that's on that point. And then Boston and LA, the only thing I mentioned in my prepared remarks and then in response to another question is just we're monitoring things closely in LA. We did see a nice sequential change in occupancy upward, which was helpful, but we haven't seen enough movement in asking rents since the beginning of the year to allow us to push rents harder.

是的，亨德爾，關於指南，我想說的是，我們提供的續約優惠在 5 星低到 5 星之間，這就是這一點。然後是波士頓和洛杉磯，我在準備好的演講中唯一提到的以及在回答另一個問題時提到的就是我們正在密切關注洛杉磯的情況。我們確實看到入住率連續上升，這很有幫助，但自今年年初以來，我們還沒有看到足夠的租金變動，讓我們能夠更努力地提高租金。

And I think that's a function of -- employment growth there has been weak across LA, mainly due to the entertainment industry. There's probably also a little bit of uncertainty related to tariffs and impact on the ports, Long Beach, LA in terms of economic activity. So we just haven't seen a lot of movement there. Occupancy is stable. We're good with that. But we're going to need to see better job growth probably and maybe a little less uncertainty to see stronger performance.

我認為這是由於洛杉磯的就業成長一直很疲軟，主要原因是娛樂業。就經濟活動而言，關稅及其對港口、長灘和洛杉磯的影響可能也存在一些不確定性。所以我們並沒有看到那裡有太多動靜。入住率穩定。我們對此很滿意。但我們可能需要看到更好的就業成長，也許還需要看到更少的不確定性，才能看到更強勁的表現。

In terms of New England, the only thing I'd say is January and February were a little slower than we anticipated, but we've started to see a significant upward trend in asking rents for March and April. which is quite positive. So that's all we're really seeing in New England. We're keeping a close eye on it in terms of any impacts from government funding on research or various other things, but we're not hearing or seeing anything related to that having a negative impact. I think it just started a little bit slower than we would have thought, and it really accelerated recently.

就新英格蘭而言，我唯一想說的是，一月和二月比我們預期的要慢一些，但我們開始看到三月和四月的租金出現明顯的上升趨勢，這是非常積極的。這就是我們在新英格蘭真正看到的一切。我們正在密切關注政府資助對研究或其他各種事物的影響，但我們沒有聽到或看到任何與此相關的負面影響。我認為它開始時比我們想像的要慢一點，但最近它確實加速了。

I appreciate that. Maybe one for Kevin, looking at the FFO picture for the year, looks like there's a pretty big ramp implied the back half of the year. I get that. A lot of that's probably -- most of it is coming from the development, but I'm curious if there's anything else that you'd point to or perhaps is underappreciated in the back half of your numbers. Thanks.

我很感激。也許對 Kevin 來說，看看今年的 FFO 圖片，似乎下半年會出現相當大的成長。我明白。其中很大一部分可能——大部分來自於開發，但我很好奇您是否還有其他可以指出的，或者在您的數字後半部分可能被低估的。謝謝。

Hey, Haendel. Yes, it's Kevin. I'll take that one. Really, we expect to experience similar drivers of sequential earnings growth over the balance of 2025. All the normal drivers are accustomed to seeing with our business model. And it's consistent with the sequential earnings growth pattern in prior years from the first quarter all the way through the fourth quarter. So we expect a sequential same-store revenue ramp in each quarter over the balance of the year.

嘿，亨德爾。是的，是凱文。我要那個。事實上，我們預計在 2025 年餘下時間裡，我們將經歷類似的連續獲利成長驅動力。所有正常的司機都習慣看到我們的商業模式。這與前幾年從第一季到第四季的連續獲利成長模式一致。因此，我們預計今年餘下時間每季的同店營收都會持續成長。

We expect sequential seasonally-driven increase in same-store OpEx, which Sean spoke to in Q2, and to a lesser extent in Q3, and then followed by a sequential decline in same-store OpEx in Q4. And then as you reference, Haendel, we do expect development NOI to increase sequentially each quarter over the year as occupancies accumulate throughout the year. And here I'd reference back to the chart on slide 11 that shows the quarterly cadence of our 2,300 occupancies across the quarters of this year. So those are the key drivers.

我們預計同店營運支出將受到季節性因素的影響而環比增長，正如 Sean 在第二季度談到的那樣，第三季度的環比增長幅度較小，而第四季度的同店運營支出將環比下降。然後，正如您所提到的，亨德爾，我們確實預計，隨著全年入住率的積累，開發 NOI 將在每一季逐年增加。在這裡，我想參考投影片 11 上的圖表，該圖表顯示了今年各季度我們 2,300 個飯店入住率的季度節奏。這些就是關鍵驅動因素。

We do expect some capital costs to increase somewhat in the second half as we pull down the equity forward. But those are the moving parts. It's the same moving parts we have every year in a normal environment. And it's directionally consistent with how our business works. And if you just sort of look at in 20 -- last couple of years, the difference in core FFO per share between the first quarter and the fourth quarters. Last year, I think was $0.10; and I think the year before, that was $0.17 in terms of the Q1 to Q4 ramp. So that's just sort of how things work on our business, and we still expect the same to happen this year.

我們確實預計，隨著股權的下降，下半年一些資本成本將會增加。但這些都是活動的部分。這與我們在正常環境下每年都會遇到的活動部件相同。並且它與我們的業務運作方式在方向上一致。如果你看一下過去幾年，第一季和第四季每股核心 FFO 的差異。我認為去年是 0.10 美元；而我認為前年，從第一季到第四季的成長是 0.17 美元。這就是我們的業務運作方式，我們仍然希望今年也能發生同樣的情況。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Linda Tsai with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

（操作員指示）Jefferies 的 Linda Tsai。請繼續您的問題。

Hi, thanks, just two quick ones. The timing of the settlement of the $890 million in undrawn forward equity, would that be more a 3Q or 4Q event?

嗨，謝謝，我只想問兩個問題。8.9 億美元未提領遠期股權的結算時間是第三季還是第四季？

This is Kevin again. Timing is just a function of our evolving capital uses and capital needs throughout the year. I'd say, at this point, what we anticipate is perhaps a little bit in Q2, the vast majority in the third and fourth quarter. That's probably what I would anticipate from an analyst point of view in terms of what you might want to dial in for your assumptions.

我又是凱文。時間只是我們全年不斷變化的資本使用和資本需求的函數。我想說，目前，我們預計可能會在第二季出現一小部分，而絕大多數將在第三季和第四季出現。這可能是我從分析師的角度對於您可能想要撥打的假設所預期的。

Obviously, when we get to the second-quarter call, we'll have clearer visibility on our capital uses and sourcing activity and our needs for the year. So we'll probably have a little more clarity for you at that point. But I do think, right now, the vast majority is in the second half, perhaps a little bit towards the end of the second quarter.

顯然，當我們召開第二季電話會議時，我們將更清楚地了解我們的資本使用情況和採購活動以及今年的需求。因此，到那時我們可能會為您提供更清晰的解釋。但我確實認為，目前絕大多數是在下半年，或許是在第二季末。

Thanks. And then does the improvement in SF and the improving political climate in California make you think differently about the pace of diversification away from coastal markets?

謝謝。那麼，舊金山的改善和加州政治氣候的改善是否會讓您對遠離沿海市場的多元化步伐有不同的看法？

Yes, hey, this is Matt. I guess the short answer is no. We've got a kind of a longer-term vision for a diversified portfolio that's got exposure to different regional economic drivers and different regional regulatory exposures and constraints. So we are on the path, and we will continue to keep an eye open for deep structural changes.

是的，嘿，這是馬特。我想簡短的回答是「不」。我們對多元化投資組合有著更長遠的願景，該投資組合涵蓋不同的區域經濟驅動力以及不同的區域監管風險和限制。因此，我們已走在這條道路上，並將繼續關注深層結構性變化。

But what we're seeing in California, it's good to see the economy picking up, particularly in Northern California, and that's a significant part of our portfolio. We know that's a high-beta market. The longer-term trends, we are seeing some more support for increased supply in California, which is good. There's also continued landlord-tenant regulatory framework and constraints, which lead us to just want to limit how much exposure we have there in total.

但我們在加州看到，經濟正在回暖，尤其是北加州，這是我們投資組合的重要組成部分。我們知道這是一個高貝塔值市場。從長期趨勢來看，我們看到加州對增加供應的更多支持，這是好事。此外，房東與房客之間的監管框架和限制仍然存在，這導致我們只想限制我們在那裡面臨的整體風險。

Thanks.

謝謝。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的 John Kim。

Thank you. That development cost breakdown on page 12 is very helpful. A little surprising. Is this because this is illustrative of your suburban garden-style assets? There's a note on the page about that. And I was wondering if there's a difference between mid-rise garden and established versus your expansion markets.

謝謝。第 12 頁的開發成本明細非常有用。有點令人驚訝。這是因為這反映了您的郊區花園式資產嗎？頁面上有關於此內容的註釋。我想知道中層花園和成熟市場與擴張市場之間是否存在差異。

This is Matt. It's kind of a blended average of all. The vast majority of what we build is wood-framed, so probably the most of what we build is high-density wood frame mid-rise, either podium or what we call wrap, which would have a structured parking deck and a four-, five-, six-story wood frame apartment building either on top of the parking or next to the parking.

這是馬特。這是一種綜合平均值。我們建造的建築絕大多數都是木造建築，因此，我們建造的大部分建築可能是高密度木結構中層建築，要么是裙樓，要么是我們所說的環繞式建築，它會有一個結構化的停車場和一個四層、五層、六層的木結構公寓樓，位於停車場上方或停車場旁邊。

We are doing more lower-density, three-story walk-up and BTR-type product. We're starting to develop more of that. It is about 40% of our existing portfolio, as Ben mentioned, which is frequently underappreciated. And high-rise is almost -- we have almost no high-rise in our current development pipeline. So it does vary somewhat by product type, but it probably varies more just by location.

我們正在生產更多低密度、三層無電梯和 BTR 型產品。我們正開始開發更多這樣的產品。正如本所提到的，它約占我們現有投資組合的 40%，但卻經常被低估。而高層建築幾乎——我們目前的開發案幾乎沒有高層建築。因此，它確實會因產品類型而有所不同，但可能僅因地點而有所不同。

So in the higher rent locations, land will be a higher percentage. In California, that land percentage is probably more like 20%, 25%. We're not actively developing in New York these days, but you'd see it even higher there. In some markets that are more garden markets, site costs are higher, and the land is less. In North Carolina, land is sometimes not even 10%, but you'll have more site costs. You're moving more dirt around, so it does vary. It's probably more regional than it is product type.

因此，在租金較高的地區，土地所佔的比例會較高。在加州，土地比例可能更像是 20% 或 25%。目前我們並沒有在紐約積極發展，但你會看到它在那裡甚至更高。在一些花園市場較多的市場，場地成本較高，土地較少。在北卡羅來納州，土地成本有時甚至不到 10%，但場地成本會更高。你移動了更多的泥土，所以它確實會改變。它可能比產品類型更具地域性。

Okay, and maybe a question for Sean. You mentioned on renewals you're getting 100- to 150-basis-point pushback or leakage on what you signed versus what you sent out. Is that higher than what it's been historically for you? I know you've made a change recently to move all renewals on your app.

好的，也許我想問肖恩一個問題。您提到，在續約時，您簽署的內容與您發出的內容相比，會出現 100 到 150 個基點的回退或洩漏。這是否比你的歷史水準高？我知道您最近做出了改變，將所有續訂都轉移到了您的應用程式上。

Yes, John. No, the 100 to 150 basis points is the typical spread. The only time you'd see it significantly wider or significantly compressed is in extraordinarily weak markets or extraordinarily strong markets. But 100, 150 is a long-term average. I think that's a fair point. And then in terms of the second part was something about the app? I'm sorry, I didn't get that part.

是的，約翰。不，100 到 150 個基點是典型的利差。只有在市場極度疲軟或極為強勁時，你才會看到它明顯擴大或縮小。但100、150是一個長期平均值。我認為這個觀點很合理。那麼第二部分是關於應用程式的嗎？抱歉，我沒聽懂那部分。

Yes, I was just wondering if people were just more willing to push back on an app rather than over the phone.

是的，我只是想知道人們是否更願意透過應用程式而不是電話來反擊。

No. If anything, our centralized renewal team, it's a pretty strict discipline as it relates to negotiating guardrails, what they're allowed to do. And it really comes down to where the at the time someone's having a conversation with a resident where their spot rent is relative to the prevailing asking rent for a similar apartment at that community at that time. That really is a key driver of it more than anything else. So if anything, it's more strict now than it's been in the past because of the focus of the centralized team on just that activity.

不。如果有什麼不同的話，那就是我們的集中更新團隊，他們在協商護欄、規定他們能做什麼方面有著相當嚴格的紀律。這實際上取決於當時某人與居民的交談，他們的現貨租金與當時該社區類似公寓的普遍租金相比如何。這確實是最重要的驅動因素。因此，如果有什麼不同的話，那就是現在比過去更嚴格，因為集中團隊只專注於這項活動。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Alex Kim, Zellman and Associates.

亞歷克斯金 (Alex Kim)、澤爾曼 (Zellman) 和合夥人。

Hey, guys, thanks for taking my question. Just a quick one for me here, and I apologize if I missed it. But I'm just curious how lease of velocity has trended this far and any changes to concessions usage to start the year. Thanks.

嘿，夥計們，謝謝你們回答我的問題。這裡只是我快速說一下，如果我錯過了，我深感抱歉。但我只是好奇到目前為止速度租賃的趨勢如何，以及今年年初特許經營使用情況有任何變化。謝謝。

Yes, Alex, this is Sean. So far, so good. We really only had If you looked at our development attachment, three communities in lease-up during the quarter that we noted. And for the first quarter, leasing and occupancy was running around 22 to 23 a month. And concessions were roughly half a month on average. So overall, relatively good, consistent with what you'd expect in the first quarter. Certainly, we'd expect that to ramp up as you get into the second and third quarter peak leasing seasons.

是的，亞歷克斯，這是肖恩。到目前為止，一切都很好。如果您看一下我們的開發附件，我們確實發現本季只有三個社區處於租賃狀態。第一季度，租賃和入住率約為每月 22 至 23 間。優惠期間平均約半個月。因此總體而言，相對較好，與第一季的預期一致。當然，我們預計隨著進入第二季和第三季的租賃旺季，這一數字將會上升。

Got it. And would you expect that concessions usage to moderate from this point onward as well then?

知道了。那麼您是否認為從現在起優惠的使用率也會下降呢？

Not necessarily. I mean, you keep in mind, we're trying to lease up an entire community in one year or less as compared to stabilized assets where we have 40% turnover or something like that. So it's really more a function of market environment and how it unfolds over the next several months as to concession usage. Right now, we're clearing the market at that level of concession. I don't have any reason to believe it would change at this point in time. But if you saw the market shift to be much stronger, much weaker, that would typically drive the concession volume.

未必。我的意思是，請記住，我們正試圖在一年或更短的時間內租賃整個社區，而穩定資產的營業額則為 40% 或類似的水平。因此，這實際上更多地取決於市場環境以及未來幾個月特許權使用情況的展開。目前，我們正在以這種優惠水平清理市場。我沒有任何理由相信它會在此時改變。但如果你發現市場變得更強或更弱，這通常會推動特許權交易量。

Got it. That's helpful. Thanks for the time.

知道了。這很有幫助。謝謝你的時間。

And with that, there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back to Ben Schall for closing remarks.

至此，目前沒有其他問題了。我想請 Ben Schall 做最後發言。

Thank you. And thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to connecting soon.

謝謝。感謝大家今天的參與。我們期待盡快建立聯繫。

Thank you. With that, that does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。