艾芙隆海灣社區公司 (AVB) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to AvalonBay Community's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

女士們、先生們，下午好，歡迎參加 AvalonBay Community 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Your host for today's conference call is Matthew Grover, Senior Director Of Investor Relations. Mr. Grover, you may begin your conference call.

今天電話會議的主持人是投資者關係高級總監馬修·格羅弗。格羅佛先生，您可以開始電話會議了。

Thank you, Vaughn, and welcome to AvalonBay Community's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

謝謝 Vaughn，歡迎參加 AvalonBay Community 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。

Before we begin, please note that forward-looking statements may be made during this discussion. There are a variety of risks and uncertainties associated with forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially. There is a discussion of these risks and uncertainties in yesterday afternoon's press release as well as in the company's Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filed with the SEC. As usual, the press release does include an attachment with definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures and other terms which may be used in today's discussion. The attachment is also available on our website at investors.avalonbay.com, and we encourage you to refer to this information during the review of our operating results and financial performance.

在開始之前，請注意，本次討論中可能會出現前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述存在各種風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。昨天下午的新聞稿以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格中都討論了這些風險和不確定性。像往常一樣，新聞稿中包含一個附件，其中列出了今天討論中可能用到的非GAAP財務指標和其他術語的定義和調節表。此附件也可在我們的網站 investors.avalonbay.com 上找到，我們鼓勵您在審查我們的經營業績和財務表現時參考這些資訊。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Ben Schall, CEO and President of AvalonBay Communities, for his remarks. Ben?

接下來，我將把電話交給 AvalonBay Communities 的執行長兼總裁 Ben Schall，請他來演講。本？

Thank you, Matt. I'm joined today by Kevin O'Shea, our Chief Financial Officer; Sean Breslin, our Chief Operating Officer; and Matt Birenbaum, our Chief Investment Officer.

謝謝你，馬特。今天與我一同出席的有：財務長凱文·奧謝；營運長肖恩·布雷斯林；以及首席投資長馬特·比倫鮑姆。

Before discussing our Q3 results, which were below our prior expectations and our updated outlook for 2025, I want to start by emphasizing a series of AvalonBay tailwinds and strengths that keep us confident in our ability to drive superior earnings and value for shareholders.

在討論我們低於預期的第三季度業績以及我們更新後的 2025 年展望之前，我想首先強調 AvalonBay 的一系列利好因素和優勢，這些因素和優勢使我們有信心為股東創造卓越的收益和價值。

First, our portfolio with its heavy concentration of communities and suburban coastal markets continues to be well positioned. With a more uncertain demand backdrop, we believe that those markets and submarkets with lower levels of new supply will continue to be the relative winners. Our established regions are particularly well situated, with deliveries as a percentage of stock projected at only 80 basis points next year.

首先，我們投資組合中大量集中了社區和郊區沿海市場，因此我們仍然處於有利地位。在需求前景更加不明朗的情況下，我們認為新增供應量較低的市場和細分市場將繼續成為相對的贏家。我們已建立的區域地理位置優越，預計明年交貨量佔庫存的比例僅為 80 個基點。

And given how challenging it is to get new development approvals and the amount of time it takes to get those approvals, we expect our markets to continue to benefit from below average levels of supply for a number of years.

鑑於獲得新的開發項目審批非常困難，而且審批過程耗時較長，我們預計未來幾年，我們的市場將繼續受益於低於平均水平的供應量。

A second differentiator for us is the $3 billion of projects we currently have under construction which will generate a meaningful uplift in earnings and value creation in 2026 and 2027. These projects are tracking ahead of our initial underwriting and importantly are benefiting from reduced construction costs, which translates into a lower long-term basis for shareholders. These projects are 95% match funded with capital that we previously raised through a mix of equity and unsecured debt with an initial cost of capital of below 5%, providing an attractive spread to our development yields on these projects.

我們的第二個優勢在於，我們目前正在建立價值 30 億美元的項目，這些項目將在 2026 年和 2027 年帶來顯著的收益和價值創造提升。這些專案目前的進度比我們最初的承銷計畫要好，更重要的是，它們受益於建設成本的降低，這意味著股東的長期成本會降低。這些項目95%的資金來自我們先前透過股權和無擔保債務組合籌集的資金，初始資本成本低於5%，這為我們這些項目的開發收益率提供了有吸引力的利差。

Third, our balance sheet is in terrific shape, with low leverage and over $3 billion of available liquidity. As we look ahead, this balance sheet strength provides us with the flexibility to continue to redeploy free cash flow, disposition proceeds, and low cost debt into our next set of [accretive] development projects as well as to buy back our stock when appropriate, as we did in Q3, having repurchased $150 million of our stock at an average price of $193 per share.

第三，我們的資產負債表狀況極佳，槓桿率低，可用流動資金超過 30 億美元。展望未來，這種資產負債表的穩健性使我們有靈活性繼續將自由現金流、處置收益和低成本債務重新部署到我們下一批[增值]開發項目中，並在適當的時候回購我們的股票，就像我們在第三季度所做的那樣，我們以每股193美元的平均價格回購了1.5億美元的股票。

Finally, we continue to advance on our set of strategic focus areas which are generating incremental earnings and cash flow from our existing portfolio as well as on new developments and acquisitions. This year we've made strong progress in advancing toward our longer-term portfolio allocation targets with a continual eye towards enhancing the cash flow growth of our portfolio. And we remain very excited about our progress on our operating model initiatives, including the expanded set of uses for technology, AI, and centralized services. By year end 2025, we expect to be roughly 60% of our way toward our target of generating $80 million of annual incremental NOI from these operating initiatives.

最後，我們繼續推動一系列策略重點領域，這些領域正在從我們現有的投資組合以及新的開發和收購中產生增量收益和現金流。今年，我們在實現長期投資組合配置目標方面取得了顯著進展，並持續關注如何提高投資組合的現金流量成長。我們對營運模式計畫的進展感到非常興奮，包括擴大技術、人工智慧和集中式服務的用途。到 2025 年底，我們預計實現透過這些營運措施每年增加 8,000 萬美元淨營業收入的目標將完成約 60%。

Turning to the third quarter, slide 5 in our earnings presentation summarizes our Q3 and year-to-date results. We are on track to start $1.7 billion of development projects this year with a projected yield in the low [6s] on an untrended basis. We've also completed our planned capital sourcing activity for the year, having raised $2 billion of capital at an average initial cost of 5%, generating a spread north of 100 basis points relative to development yields.

接下來是第三季度，我們的收益簡報第 5 頁總結了我們第三季和年初至今的業績。我們預計在今年啟動 17 億美元的開發項目，預計收益率在 [6] 左右（未考慮趨勢）。我們也完成了今年的計畫融資活動，以平均初始成本 5% 籌集了 20 億美元的資金，相對於開發收益率產生了超過 100 個基點的利差。

Slide 6 provides the breakdown of third quarter core FFO relative to our prior expectations. Of the $0.05 underperformance relative to our outlook, $0.03 was attributable to same-store portfolio results, of which $0.01 related to lower revenue and $0.02 related to higher operating expenses, including in repairs and maintenance, utilities, insurance, and benefits.

投影片 6 提供了第三季核心 FFO 相對於我們先前預期的細分數據。與我們的預期相比，業績下滑了 0.05 美元，其中 0.03 美元歸因於同店業績，0.01 美元與收入下降有關，0.02 美元與營運費用增加有關，包括維修保養、水電費、保險費和福利費。

Turning to slide 7, apartment demand has been softer than anticipated this year, which we attribute mainly to the reduced job growth backdrop, with related factors including higher macroeconomic uncertainty, lower consumer confidence, and a reduction in government hiring and funding.

翻到第 7 張投影片，今年的公寓需求比預期要疲軟，我們主要將其歸因於就業成長放緩的背景，相關因素包括宏觀經濟不確定性增加、消費者信心下降以及政府招聘和資金減少。

As shown on the left side of slide 6, the National Association of Business Economics or NABE, is now projecting growth of 725,000 jobs in 2025, down from the over 1 million jobs in their prior forecast. And for Q4, NABE is rejecting growth of just 29,000 jobs per month. We revised our revenue expectations as part of our mid-year forecasts with results for July and August generally tracking to those expectations as shown on the right hand side of slide 7.

如幻燈片 6 左側所示，全國商業經濟協會 (NABE) 目前預測，到 2025 年，就業將增加 725,000 個，低於先前預測的 100 多萬個就業機會。對於第四季度，NABE 認為每月僅能新增 29,000 個就業機會是不合理的。作為年中預測的一部分，我們修訂了收入預期，7 月和 8 月的業績總體上符合預期，如幻燈片 7 右側所示。

As Sean will discuss further, softness on rental rates in August continued in September, along with a slight occupancy dip. With further softness continuing into October, trends that are now incorporated into our updated outlook for the remainder of the year.

正如肖恩將進一步討論的那樣，8 月份租金疲軟的趨勢延續到了 9 月份，入住率也略有下降。10 月市場持續疲軟，這些趨勢已納入我們對今年剩餘時間的最新展望。

As shown on slide 8, we've also updated our expense outlook for the year to 3.8%. After benefiting from meaningful operating expense savings in the first half of 2025, we've had trends run against us across a set of expense categories without any offsetting savings. For example, in repairs and maintenance, we knew that certain savings from the first half of the year would be incurred in the second half, but have incurred more and higher cost repairs and non-routine projects than anticipated. Other unfavorable variances include insurance, utilities, and associate benefit costs.

如投影片 8 所示，我們也已將今年的支出預期更新為 3.8%。在 2025 年上半年享受了可觀的營運費用節省之後，我們在一系列費用類別中遭遇了不利趨勢，而沒有任何抵消性的節省。例如，在維修和保養方面，我們知道上半年節省的一些費用會在下半年得到彌補，但實際發生的維修和非例行項目的費用卻比預期的要高得多。其他不利差異包括保險、水電費和員工福利成本。

Given our Q3 results and these revenue and operating expense trends, we've updated our outlook for the full year, which Kevin will now discuss in more detail.

鑑於我們第三季的業績以及這些收入和營運支出趨勢，我們更新了全年的展望，凱文接下來將對此進行更詳細的討論。

Thanks, Ben.

謝謝你，本。

Turning to slide 9, we present our updated operating and financial outlook for full-year 2025 as compared to our prior outlook on our second quarter call and on our initial outlook for the year that we provided in February.

翻到第 9 張投影片，我們將展示我們更新的 2025 年全年營運和財務展望，與我們在第二季度電話會議上的展望以及我們在 2 月提供的年度初步展望進行比較。

We are lowering our full-year core FFO per share guidance by $0.14 to $11.25 per share, which reflects an updated expectation for year-to-year earnings growth of 2.2%. Our updated full-year outlook reflects same-store residential revenue growth of 2.5%, same-store residential operating expense growth of 3.8%, and same-store residential NOI growth of 2%.

我們將全年核心FFO每股預期下調0.14美元至每股11.25美元，反映了我們對全年獲利成長2.2%的最新預期。我們更新後的全年展望反映出同店住宅收入成長 2.5%，同店住宅營運支出成長 3.8%，以及同店住宅淨營業收入成長 2%。

Turning to slide 10, we highlight the components of our updated outlook for full-year core FFO per share in the second half of the year for key parts of our business as compared to our prior outlook on our second-quarter earnings call. Specifically, as Ben previously mentioned and as detailed on this slide, our third-quarter core FFO per share results were $0.05 below our prior outlook. And for our fourth-quarter core FFO per share, we provide a comparison between our prior outlook and our current outlook.

翻到第 10 張投影片，我們將重點介紹我們更新後的下半年全年核心每股 FFO 預期組成部分，這些預期與我們在第二季度收益電話會議上的先前預期進行了比較。具體來說，正如 Ben 之前提到的以及本幻燈片中詳細說明的那樣，我們第三季度的核心 FFO 每股結果比我們之前的預期低 0.05 美元。對於我們第四季核心每股 FFO，我們提供了先前展望與當前展望的比較。

The expected $0.09 decrease is primarily driven by $0.06 of lower NOI from the same-store portfolio, consisting of a $0.04 decrease in same-store residential revenue and a $0.02 increase in same-store residential operating expenses. The remaining $0.03 reflect lower expected earnings contributions from lease of NOI, commercial NOI, joint ventures, and other stabilized NOI. Taken together, our 3Q results and revised fourth-quarter outlook resulting in an updated outlook for the full-year core FFO of $11.25 per share.

預計下降 0.09 美元主要是由於同店組合的淨營業收入下降 0.06 美元，其中包括同店住宅收入下降 0.04 美元和同店住宅運營費用增加 0.02 美元。剩餘的 0.03 美元反映了租賃淨營業收入、商業淨營業收入、合資企業和其他穩定淨營業收入的預期收益貢獻降低。綜合考慮我們第三季的業績和修訂後的第四季度展望，我們對全年核心FFO的展望更新為每股11.25美元。

And with that overview of our updated outlook, I'll turn it over to Sean to discuss operations.

綜上所述，接下來我將把發言權交給肖恩，讓他來討論營運狀況。

All right, thanks, Kevin.

好的，謝謝你，凱文。

Moving to slide 11, as Ben noted, we started to experience some softening and key revenue drivers during the quarter. In chart one, economic occupancy was generally consistent with our expectations in July and August. [It fell] (technical difficulty) below our previous outlook in September and has continued to be below our previous expectation for October. Similarly, rent change started to trend below our mid-year outlook in August, driven primarily by weaker move-in rents, which are depicted in chart 3. While move-in rents softened across most regions, the deceleration was most pronounced in the mid-Atlantic, Southern California, which was driven by LA and Denver. In terms of underlying bad debt, well, we ended the quarter close to our original estimate, we experienced an uptick in August, which contributed to the unfavorable revenue variance for the quarter.

翻到第 11 張投影片，正如 Ben 指出的那樣，我們在本季開始經歷一些疲軟和關鍵收入驅動因素。如圖一所示，7月和8月的經濟入住率基本上符合我們的預期。 9月（技術性問題）低於我們先前的預期，10月也持續低於我們先前的預期。同樣，8 月租金變動開始低於我們年中預期，這主要是由於入住租金走弱，如圖 3 所示。雖然大多數地區的入住租金有所下降，但中大西洋地區和南加州的降幅最為明顯，這主要受洛杉磯和丹佛的影響。就基礎壞帳而言，我們本季末的壞帳數接近我們最初的估計，8 月壞帳數有所上升，這導致了本季收入的不利波動。

Turning to slide 12, we now expect same-store revenue growth of 2.5% for the full-year 2025, down 30 basis points from our mid-year outlook. The primary drivers of the reduction are average lease rate, which is estimated to account for 20 basis points, along with economic occupancy and underlying bad debt, which are projected to be about 5 basis points each. Our established regions are projected to produce 2.7% revenue growth, while the expansion regions are forecast to be modestly positive.

翻到第 12 張投影片，我們現在預計 2025 年全年同店營收成長 2.5%，比我們年中預測下降 30 個基點。導致降幅的主要因素是平均租賃率，預計佔 20 個基點，其次是經濟佔用率和潛在的壞賬，預計這兩項因素各佔約 5 個基點。我們已建立的區域預計將實現 2.7% 的收入成長，而擴張區域預計將略有成長。

As I mentioned in the previous slide, while the softness we've experienced has been somewhat broad-based, it has been most pronounced in the Mid-Atlantic and LA. The Mid-Atlantic has been choppy since the second quarter, and it softened further during Q3 as the probability of a government shutdown increased. Given the shutdown has become a reality and is heading into a second month in a couple of days, we expect continued weakness in the region through year end.

正如我在上一張幻燈片中提到的，雖然我們所經歷的這種柔軟天氣在某種程度上是普遍存在的，但在大西洋中部和洛杉磯地區最為明顯。自第二季以來，大西洋中部海域的海況一直動盪不安，隨著政府停擺的可能性增加，第三季海況進一步惡化。鑑於停擺已成為現實，並且幾天後將進入第二個月，我們預計該地區的經濟疲軟將持續到年底。

And in LA, job growth in the film and television industry has continued to be weak. It's been estimated that the number of film and television jobs in LA has declined by roughly 35% as compared to just three years ago. In stage occupancy, which reflects the percentage of time sound stages are being used by production companies in the region, has been trending in the mid-60% range recently, down from 90%-plus levels just a few years ago. Well, new tax incentives were passed in July this year to support film and television production in California, any employment benefit from them won't likely be realized until sometime in 2026 or beyond.

在洛杉磯，電影和電視產業的就業成長持續疲軟。據估計，洛杉磯的電影和電視行業工作崗位數量與三年前相比下降了約 35%。舞台佔用率（反映該地區製作公司使用錄音室的時間百分比）最近一直徘徊在 60% 左右，而幾年前還高達 90% 以上。今年7月，加州通過了新的稅收優惠政策，以支持電影和電視製作，但這些政策帶來的就業效益可能要到2026年或更晚才能實現。

Moving to slide 13, as we start thinking ahead to 2026, while job growth has been below expectations recently, our portfolio is positioned to perform relatively well given two important factors. First, a very low level of new supply expected in our regions, and second, a lack of affordable for sale alternatives. New supply in our established regions is expected to decline to roughly 80 basis points of existing stock in 2026, which is not only less than half the trailing 10-year average, but also a level we haven't experienced since 2012. It's also roughly consistent with what occurred during the 90s decade, which was a terrific time period for us.

翻到第 13 張投影片，當我們開始展望 2026 年時，雖然最近的就業成長低於預期，但考慮到兩個重要因素，我們的投資組合有望表現得相對良好。首先，我們地區的新供應量預計非常低；其次，缺乏價格合理的替代品可供出售。預計到 2026 年，我們成熟地區的新增供應量將下降至現有庫存的約 80 個基點，這不僅不到過去 10 年平均水平的一半，而且也是自 2012 年以來我們從未經歷過的水平。這與90年代發生的事情也大致吻合，那對我們來說是個非常棒的時期。

On the right side of slide 13, although mortgage rates have been trending down recently and home values have flattened out or declined in many regions, for sale housing remains very unaffordable in our established regions. It still costs almost $2500 per month more to own the median priced home relative to the median apartment rent in these markets.

在第 13 張投影片的右側，儘管最近抵押貸款利率呈下降趨勢，許多地區的房價也趨於平穩或下降，但在我們成熟的地區，待售房屋仍然非常難以負擔。在這些市場中，擁有一套中等價位的房屋每月仍比租住一套中等價位的公寓每月多花費近 2500 美元。

Overall, while we don't have a crystal ball regarding job and wage growth for 2026, again, our portfolio is relatively well positioned for any demand environment, given the supply picture and the lack of affordable alternatives. And as it relates to our portfolio and the setup for 2026 revenue growth, we're currently projecting our earn end to be roughly 70 basis points. Additionally, we continue to expect improvement in underlying bad debt as we work through the backlog of cases in several established regions and our various screening tools further constrain new entrants to the bad debt pool.

總的來說，雖然我們無法預測 2026 年的就業和薪資成長情況，但鑑於目前的供應狀況和缺乏價格合理的替代方案，我們的投資組合在任何需求環境下都相對處於有利地位。至於我們的投資組合和 2026 年營收成長計劃，我們目前預計最終收益約為 70 個基點。此外，隨著我們在幾個成熟地區逐步處理積壓案件，以及我們各種篩選工具進一步限制新進入壞帳池的人員，我們預計潛在的壞帳情況將繼續改善。

Forecasted benefit for the calendar year 2025 is approximately 15 basis points. For 2026, I would expect to at least 15 basis points and likely more, given some of the underlying activity we're seeing across the portfolio.

預計到 2025 年曆年，收益約為 15 個基點。對於 2026 年，我預計至少會上漲 15 個基點，而且鑑於我們目前在投資組合中看到的一些潛在活動，漲幅可能會更大。

And third, while it won't likely be as strong as the last couple of years as we begin to stabilize our Avalon Connect offering for residents, we still expect another well above average year of growth in other rental revenue in 2026.

第三，雖然隨著我們開始穩定為居民提供的 Avalon Connect 服務，其成長勢頭可能不會像過去幾年那麼強勁，但我們仍然預計 2026 年其他租賃收入將再次遠高於平均水平。

Now I'll turn it to Matt to address our development activity.

現在我將把發言權交給 Matt，讓他來談談我們的開發活動。

Thanks, Sean.

謝謝你，肖恩。

Turning to our development activity as shown on slide 14, our current lease ups continue to perform better than our initial expectations, reflecting the conservative underwriting approach we take where we do not trend rents and analyze every new start primarily on its current economics. Our development underway reached $3.2 billion by the end of the third quarter, was 95% match funded, and underwritten to an untrended yield on cost of 6.2%. We opened several new lease ups over the summer and now have six communities where there is enough leasing activity for us to update the rents and yields to current market.

如投影片 14 所示，我們目前的開發活動繼續好於我們最初的預期，這反映了我們採取的保守承銷方法，即我們不以租金趨勢為導向，而是主要根據每個新項目的當前經濟狀況進行分析。截至第三季末，我們在建工程已達 32 億美元，其中 95% 的資金已得到匹配，且承銷成本收益率為 6.2%（未受市場波動影響）。我們在夏季期間啟動了幾個新的租賃項目，現在有六個社區的租賃活動足夠活躍，我們可以將租金和收益率更新到當前市場水平。

This $950 million in development activity is running 10 basis points above the initial projections, thanks to $10 million in cost savings and rents that are $50 per month higher than pro forma, generating a further lift to the value creation and earnings accretion these communities will deliver once they are complete and stabilized.

由於節省了 1000 萬美元的成本，以及租金比預期每月高出 50 美元，這項 9.5 億美元的開發活動比最初的預測高出 10 個基點，這將進一步提升這些社區建成穩定後所創造的價值和收益增長。

We have another three communities, all in New Jersey, that are just starting their lease ups, and rents at those assets are currently set at 2% above pro forma. So the trend of development outperformance is likely to continue as all 9 of these communities look to complete their lease ups next year, and the 13 communities that won't start lease up until 2026 or '27 should open at a time when there will be much less competitive new supply, as Sean detailed earlier.

我們還有三個社區，全部位於新澤西州，目前剛開始出租，這些資產的租金目前設定為比預期租金高出 2%。因此，隨著這 9 個社區都計劃在明年完成租賃，開發績效優異的趨勢可能會持續下去。而要到 2026 年或 2027 年才會開始租賃的 13 個社區，屆時新供應的競爭性將會大大降低，正如肖恩之前詳細介紹的那樣。

Turning to slide 15, we are strategically increasing our development underway when the industry as a whole is retrenching, taking advantage of the benefits of our integrated platform to build at a time when costs are lower and competition is more subdued. As we look to 2026, many of these favorable tailwinds should persist, although we are also mindful of the softening revenue environment and the associated impact on our cost of capital to fund new starts going forward.

翻到第 15 頁，我們正策略性地加大研發投入，而整個產業卻在​​收縮，我們利用整合平台的優勢，在成本較低、競爭較為緩和的時期進行建置。展望 2026 年，許多有利因素應該會持續下去，儘管我們也意識到收入環境疲軟以及由此對我們未來啟動新項目的資金成本產生的影響。

And with that, I'll turn it back to the operator for Q&A.

接下來，我將把問題交還給接線員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Jana Galan, Bank of America.

Jana Galan，美國銀行。

Maybe following up on Matt's development comments, just curious kind of how you're looking at the next, crop of projects and properties, kind of how you're thinking about those, and maybe also comparing that with you guys were active on share repurchases in the quarter, if you could kind of talk to those capital allocation decisions.

或許可以接著 Matt 的發展評論，我很好奇你們是如何看待下一批項目和房產的，你們是如何考慮這些項目的，另外，如果可以的話，也想和你們在本季度積極進行股票回購的情況比較一下，能否談談這些資本配置決策？

Sure, Jana, thanks for the question.

當然，Jana，謝謝你的提問。

Let me start by just reemphasizing the strength of our balance sheet. It's in a terrific shape today and really does provide us with a ton of flexibility as we think about our capital allocation choices going forward. You think about a fairly rich menu of opportunities today. I'll start with reinvestment opportunities back into the existing portfolio. We're active this year on revenue enhancing. Investments see a similar set of opportunities as we look to next year.

首先，我想再次強調我們資產負債表的穩健性。它目前的狀況非常好，確實為我們未來的資本配置選擇提供了極大的靈活性。想想如今琳瑯滿目的機會。我將首先探討將資金再投資到現有投資組合的機會。我們今年將積極致力於提高收入。展望明年，投資領域也看到了類似的機會。

On the development side, as a baseline, we're thinking right now in terms of 2026 development starts in the range of [a billion dollars] of starts, and that's based on looking out on our pipeline and the set of opportunities. They tend to be -- that billion dollars tend to be in our established regions where operating fundamentals are a little bit more stable today. We are seeing strong construction buyout savings in those markets as well.

在開發方面，作為基準，我們目前考慮的是 2026 年開工開發項目，投資額在 10 億美元左右，這是基於我們對現有項目儲備和機會的觀察。這十億美元的投資往往集中在我們成熟的地區，因為這些地區的營運基本面目前更加穩定。我們也看到這些市場中建築收購節省了大量成本。

And based on today's rents and today's costs, now those projects aren't starting today, but based on today's rents and those costs, yields on that billion dollars are in the 6.5%, the high 6% range, so a meaningful spread to where we can raise incremental capital.

根據今天的租金和成本，雖然這些項目今天不會啟動，但根據今天的租金和成本，這十億美元的收益率在 6.5% 到 6% 的高位區間，因此存在一個可觀的利差，我們可以籌集額外的資金。

And then, as we have -- as we always do, we will flex and adjust as we need to. As folks know, we approve every development project, project by project, we have for sure, raised the target returns that we're looking from our developers next year, but expected and we're hopeful that we'll be able to have another year of fulsome development activity.

然後，就像我們一直以來所做的那樣，我們會根據需要靈活調整。如大家所知，我們對每一個開發項目都進行審批，逐一進行審批。我們確實提高了明年對開發商的預期回報目標，但我們預計並希望明年能夠迎來另一個開發活動蓬勃發展的年份。

And then given our balance sheet strength, we also have the opportunity to buy back our stock as we did in the third quarter, and the extent that that continues to present an opportunity for us to invest creatively into our existing portfolio. So that's the general setup where we sit today as we think about capital allocation choices.

此外，鑑於我們資產負債表的穩健性，我們還有機會像第三季那樣回購股票，而這在某種程度上也為我們提供了機會，讓我們能夠創造性地投資於我們現有的投資組合。這就是我們今天在考慮資本配置選擇時所處的整體情況。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

Steve Sakwa，Evercore ISI。

I appreciate all the comments on the markets. Maybe for Ben, just, you talked about SoCal and then obviously the government shutdown won't go forever, but I mean, do you kind of look at those markets maybe differently just on a long-term basis and would your -- I guess preference to have a lower exposure in both of those markets kind of on a go-forward basis?

感謝大家對市場的所有評論。也許對本來說，你剛才談到了南加州，而且很明顯政府停擺不會永遠持續下去，但我的意思是，從長遠來看，你是否會以不同的視角看待這些市場？你是否傾向於在未來降低在這兩個市場的投資曝險？

I'll start at a high level and then turn it to Sean and talk about what we're seeing on the ground, Steve.

史蒂夫，我先從宏觀層面談談，然後把話題交給肖恩，讓他說說我們在實際工作中看到的情況。

On a high level, we continue to advance on our portfolio allocation targets which, do have us, this goes back to a couple of years ago, looking to reduce our exposure in the overall mid-Atlantic as well as in California. The other emphasis point that I would give it give to you is, we've not only set targets at a market level, but we've also set targets within our regions.

從宏觀層面來看，我們繼續推進投資組合配置目標，事實上，這可以追溯到幾年前，當時我們尋求減少在大西洋中部地區以及加州的投資曝險。我想強調的另一點是，我們不僅在市場層面設定了目標，而且還在各自的區域內設定了目標。

And I'll use the Mid-Atlantic as an example here, on the heels of our DC disposition, our recent DC sales, we've been looking to increase our exposure in the Mid-Atlantic heavier to Northern Virginia based on a number of factors. And so on the heels of that transaction, we now have close to 50% of our portfolio in northern Virginia. So that's how we kind of continue to -- there's a combination of looking longer-term, but then also making shorter-term transaction activities.

我以大西洋中部地區為例，在我們處置華盛頓特區資產、最近出售華盛頓特區資產之後，基於多種因素，我們一直在尋求增加我們在大西洋中部地區的投資，尤其是在北維吉尼亞地區的投資。因此，隨著這筆交易的完成，我們現在有近 50% 的投資組合位於維吉尼亞州北部。所以，我們就是這樣繼續下去──既著眼於長期發展，也進行短期交易活動。

And then Sean, if you want to speak to what you're seeing on the ground more in both of those markets.

然後肖恩，如果你想更詳細地談談你在這兩個市場實際看到的情況的話。

Yeah, Steve, I think probably the right way to think about this. Obviously, the government shutdown was looming in Q3. It's become a reality. We've seen this story play through before. It's not a long-term sort of secular shift. For the most part tends to be cyclical in nature. It's been noted we're happy that we have kind of half our portfolio currently in Northern Virginia and also, as [he] noted, tilting it more towards northern Virginia, which is holding up better than the district or some of the markets in Maryland.

是的，史蒂夫，我想這可能是思考這個問題的正確方式。顯然，政府停擺在第三季迫在眉睫。這已經成為現實。我們以前就看過類似的故事發生。這不是一種長期的、世俗的轉變。大多數情況下，其性質都具有週期性。有人指出，我們很高興目前我們大約一半的投資組合都在弗吉尼亞州北部，而且正如[他]所指出的，我們正在將投資組合更多地轉向弗吉尼亞州北部，因為那裡的情況比華盛頓特區或馬裡蘭州的一些市場要好。

The big thing with the Mid-Atlantic that I think we have to all look at also is we delivered about -- projected to deliver about 15,000 units of new supply in 2025. That's projected to decline to just 5,000 units across the entire DMV for 2026. So to the extent we get to the other side of this, and we get into a more stable and even modestly growing job environment, that's a pretty good setup for revenue growth when we get there.

我認為我們都必須關注的中大西洋地區的一個重要問題是，我們預計在 2025 年將交付約 15,000 套新供應量。預計到 2026 年，整個 DMV 地區的汽車保有量將下降到僅 5,000 輛。所以，如果我們能夠渡過難關，進入一個更穩定甚至略有成長的就業環境，那麼屆時我們將迎來營收成長的良好開端。

And in Southern California, obviously it's gone through cycles in the past, probably diversified economy. And certainly the entertainment sector has taken a hit. Some of the tax incentives and other activities will likely bring it back at some point in the future, and that is a market that again probably diversified economically, which is generally good in terms of the diversification benefit but tends to run at one of the lowest levels in the supply relative to stock of any of our regions in the country, and that is likely going to be the case as we look forward over the next couple of years for such a massive market to see a pretty meaningful reduction in supply.

而南加州顯然過去曾經歷過經濟週期，經濟可能已經多元化。娛樂業無疑受到了衝擊。一些稅收優惠和其他活動可能會在未來某個時候將其拉回來，而且這個市場可能再次實現了經濟多元化，這通常有利於多元化，但相對於我們國家的任何地區而言，其供應量往往處於最低水平之一，而且隨著我們展望未來幾年，這種情況可能會持續下去，如此龐大的市場可能會出現相當大的供應量減少。

So I do think we're thinking about these both the short-term decisions, but not thinking too differently in terms of the long-term other than the rotation within the region as opposed to outside the region is the way I'd probably think about it.

所以我認為我們既考慮了這些短期決策，但從長遠角度來看，除了區域內輪換和區域外輪換之外，我們並沒有考慮太多不同的東西，這可能是我思考的方式。

Eric Wolfe, Citi.

Eric Wolfe，花旗銀行。

Thanks. It's Nick Joseph here with Eric. Maybe just going back to the capital allocation answer earlier you mentioned development starts maybe in the mid 6s% to high 6s%. I think buybacks would be somewhere around the mid-6s now. How does that compare to what you're seeing kind of real time in the transaction market, have kind of going in yields changed at all given some of the weaker rank growth assumptions, and as you think about that, is there also a difference within some of the different markets that you're looking at today?

謝謝。我是尼克·約瑟夫，我是艾瑞克。或許回到你之前提到的資本配置問題，開發可能在 6% 到 6% 之間。我認為現在的股票回購價格應該在6%左右。這與你在交易市場即時看到的情況相比如何？考慮到一些較弱的排名成長假設，收益率是否有所變化？考慮到這一點，你今天關注的一些不同市場之間是否存在差異？

Yeah, hey, it's Matt. I guess I'll take that one.

嗨，我是馬特。那我就選那個吧。

The short answer is we haven't really seen any change in where the market is pricing stabilized asset sales. It's still kind of anywhere from the mid- to high 4% cap rate range to low- to mid 5% cap rate range depending on the geography. And even our own activity is kind of a good example of that. I'd put DC, the district, on the higher end of that range, but suburban Seattle might be on the lower end of that range where we just sold an asset this quarter at a 4.6% cap on our numbers.

簡而言之，我們還沒有看到市場對穩定資產出售的定價有任何變化。根據地理位置的不同，資本化率大致在 4% 的中高水準到 5% 的低水準之間。甚至我們自身的行為也是一個很好的例子。我會把華盛頓特區（DC）的收益率放在這個範圍的較高水平，但西雅圖郊區的收益率可能會放在這個範圍的較低水平，我們本季度剛剛在那裡出售了一項資產，收益率上限為 4.6%。

So you know it has not -- it's been pretty sticky and if anything is kind of long rates have come down a little bit, that's given buyers more confidence, so I think transaction velocity, multi-family trades in Q3 were up pretty materially over Q3 of '24. It is still selective in terms of the assets that are getting that bid are assets where there is reasonably good momentum in the rent roll or at least they're not backsliding. But so far cap rates are holding firm and values.

所以你知道，情況並沒有——情況一直相當穩定，如果有什麼變化的話，那就是長期利率略有下降，這給了買家更大的信心，所以我認為交易速度，第三季度的多戶住宅交易量比 2024 年第三季度大幅增長。就競標對象而言，它仍然具有選擇性，競標對像是租金收入勢頭良好或至少沒有下滑的資產。但到目前為止，資本化率和價值都保持穩定。

John Pawlowski, Green Street.

約翰‧帕夫洛夫斯基，格林街。

Matt, just a quick follow-up and if I could fit you in that interpret your comments on the DC cap rates accurate that those sold the 4% dispositions were right around a low 5% cap. And then Kevin, could you provide more details on the really what drove the repair and maintenance surprise? Are we running into labor availability issues or what else went wrong in the R&M functions?

馬特，我還有一個後續問題，如果可以的話，我想請你解釋一下你對 DC 資本化率的評論是否準確，即那些以 4% 的資本化率出售的資產，其資本化率恰好在 5% 左右。凱文，你能否詳細說明一下導致這次維修保養意外的真正原因？我們是否遇到了勞動力短缺問題，還是維修和維護職能方面出現了其他問題？

Yeah, hey, John, it's Matt.

嗨，約翰，我是馬特。

The cap rate on the DC sales was probably mid 5s%. There was a little bit of retail in the portfolio, so the residential cap rate was probably kind of low- to mid 5s%, but I'd say the overall transaction was right around 5.5%.

DC銷售的資本化率可能在5%左右。該投資組合中包含少量零售物業，因此住宅資本化率可能在 5% 到 5% 之間，但我認為整體交易的資本化率在 5.5% 左右。

And then (multiple speakers)--

進而（多位發言者）——

Sean, on the R&M side specifically, it's kind of a smattering of different things what I'd say at a high level is we had a pretty good experience going through Q2, as Ben mentioned in his opening remarks in terms of the benefit. We expected a little bit of that to come back but unfortunately just kind of hit a bad streak in Q3 in terms of various accounts that came through on the repairs of maintenance size flood their higher cost per turn in terms of the way the units came to us, some of them are [skips and evicts] a higher cost, so I wouldn't say there's one particular pattern there other than, we just probably underestimated a little bit where we land in Q3 relative to what happened in Q2.

肖恩，具體來說，R&M 方面涉及很多不同的事情。總的來說，正如本在開場白中提到的，我們在第二季度取得了相當不錯的成績，也帶來了好處。我們預計這種情況會有所好轉，但不幸的是，第三季我們在各種帳戶的維修方面遇到了一些困難，維護規模龐大，導致每回合的成本較高。由於這些單元的交付方式，其中一些（跳躍和驅逐）成本更高，因此我不會說有什麼特定的模式，只是我們可能低估了第三季度相對於第二季度的情況。

Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley.

亞當‧克雷默，摩根士丹利。

I think last quarter there was a discussion around lease up at an asset or two in Denver development assets. Just wondering, if there's any update there for those assets, and I guess just more broadly, if you think about the performance of development assets and lease up, how are they doing and, as sort of some of them, maybe from a year ago or nine months ago as you get closer to sort of that annualizing the initial leases what is sort of the performance in terms of people at renewal given for the pace of lease up.

我認為上個季度曾討論過丹佛開發項目中一兩項資產的租賃事宜。我只是想知道，這些資產是否有任何最新進展？更廣泛地說，如果您考慮開發資產的績效和租賃情況，它們的表現如何？作為其中的一些資產，也許與一年前或九個月前相比，隨著初始租賃的年度化臨近，考慮到租賃速度，續租人數方面的表現如何？

Hey Adam, it's Matt. I'll start on that one and then I think Sean can also provide some other detail specifically around our Denver lease ups.

嗨，亞當，我是馬特。我先從這方面入手，然後我認為肖恩還可以提供一些關於我們在丹佛的租賃情況的具體細節。

But in general, as I'd mentioned at the opening, our lease ups continue to perform well and we're getting a little bit of outperformance on rent. And importantly, we are also seeing pretty significant cost savings, and the good part about that is that stays with you forever. That reduced basis, the NOI will move around over time, obviously grow over time, but it'll have its ups and downs. But the basis is forever.

但總的來說，正如我在開場白中提到的，我們的租賃業務繼續表現良好，租金收益也略有超出預期。更重要的是，我們也看到了相當可觀的成本節約，而且好處在於，這些節約將永久有效。基數縮小後，淨營業收入會隨著時間推移而波動，顯然會隨著時間成長，但也會經歷起伏。但基礎是永恆的。

Just between the deal that we completed in the first half of this year in Annapolis, which we completed this quarter, and we have another completion coming next quarter in Maryland, just those three deals alone, there's probably $12 million worth of cost savings on 1,000 units. That's $12,000 a unit in lower bases. So that's pretty compelling and that -- so I would expect more of our yield out performance on what we're leasing up now and into next year to come from the denominator than the numerator, but we're still getting a little juice on the numerator in general.

光是今年上半年我們在安納波利斯完成的交易（本季完成）以及下季在馬裡蘭州即將完成的另一筆交易，光是這三筆交易，每1,000套單元房就可能節省1,200萬美元的成本。低階機型每台售價12000美元。所以這很有說服力，而且——所以我預計我們現在和明年出租的物業的收益率表現更多地來自分母而不是分子，但我們總體上仍然從分子中獲得了一些收益。

And in generally, we lease at a pace so that we can have the assets full within 12 months. So essentially we don't wind up competing against ourselves on renewals. We are very mindful of that and in general, we've been able to achieve that. There are a couple of exceptions and the one in Denver, is a good example of that where that submarket in Governor's Park there south of downtown is just littered with supply.

一般來說，我們的租賃速度會控制在 12 個月內，以便我們可以充分利用這些資產。所以從本質上講，我們最終不會在續約方面與自己競爭。我們非常重視這一點，而且總的來說，我們已經能夠做到這一點。也有一些例外，丹佛就是一個很好的例子，市中心南部的 Governor's Park 那個子市場到處都是供應。

So, Sean, I don't know if you want to share a little more on that (multiple speakers) contrast that to some of the others.

所以，肖恩，我不知道你是否願意就此（多位發言者）再多分享一些，並將其與其他一些發言者進行對比。

Yeah, just to give you some insights on Denver, we really have two lease ups one just finished and stabilized at the end of the third quarter, which is in Westminster. And then the other one is -- Park -- Governor's Park, which Matt reference, so on average they did about 20 leases a month during the third quarter, which is a little bit below where we typically would like, but again, Westminster was heading right to stabilize mode, so.

是的，就丹佛的情況而言，我們目前有兩個租賃項目，其中一個在第三季末剛剛完成並穩定下來，該項目位於威斯敏斯特。另一個是——公園——州長公園，馬特也提到過，所以他們在第三季度平均每月完成了大約 20 份租賃合同，這比我們通常希望的要少一些，但再說一遍，威斯敏斯特正朝著穩定模式發展，所以。

A little bit softer pace there and then concessions on the Westminster deal averaged about 150% of a month's rent and it was more than two months' rent at the Governor's Park deal. So certainly soft environment in Denver, I think that's pretty apparent to pretty much everybody nowadays. But fortunately, we have one that's stabilized and the Governor's Park deal is approaching 90% at least at this point, so we're getting pretty close.

那裡的節奏稍微慢了一些，威斯敏斯特的交易讓步平均約為一個月租金的 150%，而總督公園的交易讓步則超過兩個月租金。所以丹佛的環境確實比較寬鬆，我想現在幾乎每個人都能明顯感受到這一點。但幸運的是，我們已經有一個項目穩定下來了，而且州長公園的交易目前至少已經完成了 90%，所以我們離目標越來越近了。

The other piece of good news I'd add, and I think I mentioned this last quarter too, it just so happens a lot of our lease-up activity now and as you look to next year is in the suburban northeast which is still pretty strong. I think, we -- as I mentioned, we have three lease ups that are opening. They're leasing now in New Jersey and fourth one that's just finishing its lease up and that market has been very solid.

另一個好消息是，而且我想我上個季度也提到過，我們目前的租賃活動以及展望明年，都集中在東北郊區，那裡的租賃市場仍然非常強勁。我認為，正如我之前提到的，我們有三個租賃項目即將啟動。他們現在正在新澤西州租賃房產，第四套房產的租賃合約也即將到期，而新澤西州的市場一直非常穩健。

Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Austin Wurschmidt，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Just thinking through potential share repurchase activity from here I guess do you have capital lined up to fund that today or would you need to source additional capital to fund future purchases and just wondering if dispositions are the best -- still the best avenue for that today.

我正在考慮未來可能的股票回購活動，我想知道你們目前是否有資金來支付這些費用，還是需要籌集額外的資金來支付未來的購買費用？另外，我還在想賣出股票是否是最好的選擇——目前這仍然是最好的途徑。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure, Austin, this is Kevin.

當然，奧斯汀，這位是凱文。

So a few points for you to consider here, I guess. First of all, from a balance sheet point of view, as Ben outlined, we're in terrific shape right now, as you can see from our earnings release. Our leverage is 4.5 times net debt to EBITDA. If you give us credit for the forward equity of nearly $900 million we have in place, that's essentially another half turn lower, so we're kind of at around 4 turns. We have nearly full availability on our line of credit, with only $200 million-plus in commercial paper. So we have plenty of access to liquidity and we have leveraged capacity to the extent we wish to use it.

所以，我想這裡有幾點供您參考。首先，從資產負債表的角度來看，正如本所概述的，我們目前的狀況非常好，正如您從我們的獲利報告中看到的那樣。我們的槓桿率為淨債務與 EBITDA 的 4.5 倍。如果考慮到我們目前擁有的近 9 億美元的預期權益，那基本上就又降低了半圈，所以我們現在大概是 4 圈左右。我們的信用額度幾乎已全部可用，僅有 2 億美元多一點的商業票據。因此，我們擁有充足的流動資金，並且可以根據需要靈活運用槓桿能力。

From a share repurchase authorization standpoint, as you probably noticed in our earns release, we essentially reloaded or reauthorized our share repurchase program, so we now have $500 million of additional authority to be able to tap into here going forward so we have that set up as well.

從股票回購授權的角度來看，正如您可能在我們的盈利報告中註意到的那樣，我們實際上重新充值或重新授權了我們的股票回購計劃，因此我們現在有 5 億美元的額外授權可以在未來動用，所以我們也已經做好了這方面的準備。

And I think it's kind of outlined by Ben we're prepared to be nimble. We do currently plan on having roughly $1 billion in starts next year, but it's the decision of whether to engage in a buyback or development is not necessarily a binary one, as we even saw from us in the third quarter where we continue to be constructive on development and also bought back $150 million in shares.

我認為本已經大致概括了這一點，我們已經做好了靈活應對的準備。我們目前計劃明年啟動約 10 億美元的項目，但是否進行股票回購或開發並非非此即彼的選擇，正如我們在第三季度所看到的，我們繼續對開發持積極態度，同時也回購了價值 1.5 億美元的股票。

So not in a position to tell you today what we're going to do tomorrow, but we are in a position to act on a buyback if it makes sense and we recognize that our shares are attractive, but we also recognize that development is attractive and at a point of indifference also gives us fresh assets with a low CapEx profile and a strong growth profile. So there are certainly strong merits to continuing to do developments, a significant amount of development of what's in our development book, but we have the capacity to engage in a buyback of appropriate.

因此，我們今天無法告訴您我們明天要做什麼，但如果回購股票是合理的，我們有能力採取行動。我們認識到我們的股票很有吸引力，但我們也意​​識到開發很有吸引力，而且在目前這種情況下，開發還能為我們提供資本支出低、成長前景強勁的新資產。因此，繼續進行開發，大量開發我們開發計劃中的項目，當然有很大的優點，但我們也有能力進行適當的回購。

From the standpoint of how much -- how we think about funding it longer-term, certainly we would likely tap available liquidity in the form of commercial paper to do so, which prices in the low 4% range today. But ultimately as we think about framing how much we would do, we are limited by our gains capacity, which is in the normal year about $500 million of asset sales and an intention to essentially term out whatever we buy in terms of the buyback on a leverage neutral basis with its proportionate share of recycled asset sales if that's the case and incremental longer-term debt. So we do feel like we have plenty of room to be constructive in there, but so, but it's not necessarily binary choice and we're prepared to be nimble and react to the appropriate market singles.

從資金規模的角度來看——我們如何考慮長期融資，我們當然可能會利用商業票據形式的可用流動性來實現這一點，而目前商業票據的價格在 4% 左右。但最終，當我們考慮要投入多少資金時，我們受到自身收益能力的限制，正常年份的資產出售規模約為 5 億美元，並且我們打算基本上以槓桿中性的方式，通過回購的方式，將我們購買的任何資產按比例償還，如果情況屬實，則償還回收資產的相應份額，並增加長期債務。所以，我們覺得我們有很多空間可以進行建設性的工作，但是，這並不一定是非此即彼的選擇，我們準備好靈活應對，並對合適的市場單曲做出反應。

Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.

傑米·費爾德曼，富國銀行。

As we've been listening to the calls throughout the day, the number one incoming question is just, how do these residential companies have visibility on where the market's going, first for, guidance through year end but also just to kind of get through the spring leasing next year.

我們今天一直在聽取電話，收到的最多的問題是，這些住宅公司如何才能了解市場走向，首先是為了提供年底前的指導，其次是為了順利度過明年春季的租賃市場。

So I know there's only two months left in a year, so that's probably an easier part of the question, but just as you think about your crystal ball setting guidance and even thinking about where this cycle could go before it gets better, can you point to some of the things that are giving you confidence so that people should be thinking about or that you're thinking about and watching because every company is certainly taking numbers down or their outlooks down given September and October.

我知道一年只剩下兩個月了，所以這可能是問題中比較容易回答的部分。但是，就像你用水晶球預測未來走向，甚至思考這個週期在好轉之前可能會如何發展一樣，你能否指出一些讓你充滿信心的事情，以便人們可以思考，或者你正在思考和關注的事情，因為鑑於九月和十月的情況，每家公司肯定都在下調業績或預期。

Jamie, I can start.

傑米，我可以開始了。

Yeah, the -- emphasize a couple of different elements. One, sort of our portfolio positioning for sure emphasizing the level of -- low levels of supply that we're seeing now and particularly as we get into the next year, and Sean mentioned it, but just to reiterate, we don't need a ton of incremental demand given that supply backdrop to see some strong results as we get into the next year.

是的，這——強調了幾個不同的要素。第一，我們的投資組合定位肯定強調了我們目前以及明年即將到來之際所看到的低供應水平，肖恩也提到了這一點，但我要重申一下，鑑於目前的供應背景，我們不需要大量的新增需求就能在明年看到一些強勁的業績。

As you think about the overall job environment, the hope is that we're headed towards a period where there's increased certainty on the macroeconomic side, increased certainty around where tariffs are going to land, the end of the government shutdown, so increased certainty, increased confidence, the rate dynamic potentially also leads to further investment, but we can kind of shift out of our current environment to there and you lead to businesses further investing. And also investing in their workforces, that's sort of the other side of this dynamic for us as we think about the job picture.

從整體就業環境來看，我們希望宏觀經濟面能迎來一個確定性更高的時期，關稅政策走向更明朗，政府停擺也將結束。確定性提高，信心增強，利率動態也可能帶來進一步的投資，我們可以擺脫目前的困境，轉向這樣的環境，促使企業進一步投資。此外，投資員工隊伍也是我們思考就業前景時需要考慮的另一個面向。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

John Kim，BMO資本市場。

I wanted to talk about bad debt, which came in a little bit higher than you were expecting, and I wonder just wanted to know what the potential source of that was and if you have a disproportionate amount of bad debt that came from recent development lease ups.

我想談談壞賬，壞賬數額比您預期的要高一些，我想知道其潛在來源是什麼，以及您是否有不成比例的壞賬來自最近的開發租賃。

Yeah, John and Sean.

對，約翰和肖恩。

Yeah, the [missing] bad debt we referenced is in the same-store pool, so the development assets wouldn't be in that book, and you know it's really a relatively modest number. It's about 5 basis points different in terms of what accounted for the variance and in a book like that when you're dealing with court times and dockets and when the sheriff's going to show up and all that kind of good stuff, 5 basis points is a pretty tight margin of error but obviously it was a negative variant. So overall we feel good about where we're headed with bad debt.

是的，我們提到的[缺少的]壞帳屬於同店壞帳池，所以開發資產不會計入該帳簿，而且你知道，這筆金額其實相當有限。就造成差異的原因而言，兩者相差約 5 個基點。在這樣一本書中，當你處理法庭時間、案卷、警長何時出庭等等這類重要訊息時，5 個基點的誤差範圍相當小，但顯然這是一個負面變化。所以總的來說，我們對不良債權的處理方向感到滿意。

I can tell you that if you look at where we are now in terms of the number of accounts that we need to work our way through compared to the end of 2024, we're down 20%, 25%. So it's moving in the right direction. It's just a matter of kind of processing people through. So I would expect, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, as we look forward to 2026, if we're getting about a 15-basis-point benefit this year, I would expect at least, if not likely more than that benefit in 2026 just based on what we're seeing as different cases work their way through the system and our screening tools get more and more sophisticated in terms of limiting the number of new entrants to the pool.

我可以告訴你，如果你看看我們現在需要處理的帳戶數量與 2024 年底相比的情況，我們會發現我們減少了 20% 到 25%。所以，事情正朝著正確的方向發展。這只是處理人員入職流程的問題。因此，正如我在準備好的發言稿中提到的，展望 2026 年，如果我們今年能獲得大約 15 個基點的收益，那麼我預計 2026 年的收益至少會超過這個數字，甚至可能更多，這僅僅是基於我們看到的不同案例在系統中逐步推進，以及我們的篩選工具在限制新進入池子的數量方面變得越來越複雜。

But in general, I know it's not part of the thing with the same store. Do you tend to get higher bed debt on these sub-communities?

但總的來說，我知道它和同一家商店無關。這些子社區的床位債務是否往往較高？

Not necessarily, no. If it is, it can be an outlier community here or there. It's really kind of market specific in terms of the type of customers you're dealing with and tools you use, but in general it's not necessarily an outlier across the development book as compared to the same-store pool.

不一定。如果真是這樣，那它可能只是個別特例。這實際上與你所面對的客戶類型和你使用的工具密切相關，但總的來說，與同類產品相比，它在整個開發領域並不一定是個例外。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Rich Hightower, Barclays.

Rich Hightower，巴克萊銀行。

The operator made me freak out there that I didn't start one earlier, so I'm glad I'm in.

接線生讓我很擔心自己沒有早點開始，所以我很高興現在終於開始了。

So just to follow-up on the jobs discussion, I guess, as you're having conversations with tenants in the DC market specifically, I guess what are the chances that there's another shoe to drop with respect to sort of delayed impacts from those and if someone's laid off, there's usually sort of a lag, before they think about vacating the unit or stop paying rent or things like that.

所以，為了跟進關於就業的討論，我想，既然您正在與華盛頓特區市場的租戶進行交流，那麼就就業問題可能還會產生一些滯後影響的可能性有多大呢？如果有人被解雇了，通常會有一段時間，他們才會考慮搬離房屋或停止支付租金等等。

And then secondarily, there's been a lot of headlines around weakness in the entry-level job market specifically, and that's not a DC comment, that's broad-based, but how does that affect your portfolio more broadly? So I guess kind of a two-parter.

其次，最近有很多關於入門級就業市場疲軟的新聞報道，這並非華盛頓特區的個別現象，而是普遍存在的現象，那麼這會對你的投資組合產生怎樣的更廣泛影響呢？所以我覺得這算是分成兩個部分吧。

Yeah, Rich, it's Sean, I'll start and others can add as needed.

是的，Rich，我是Sean，我先開始，其他人可以根據需要補充。

As it relates to the districts or the DC region specifically, what I'd say is likely any impact that came through related to DOGE specifically and some of the activities that happened earlier this year. We probably would be feeling that about now just given normal sort of severance periods, notice periods, things like that. So there's probably an element of that embedded in the current environment.

就各區或華盛頓特區而言，我認為可能的影響是與 DOGE 相關的具體影響以及今年早些時候發生的一些活動的影響。考慮到正常的遣散期、通知期等等，我們現在可能也會有這種感覺。所以，當前環境中可能已經存在這種因素。

Of course some of those people may have left three, four, five months ago, but I think the question now is as we turn to 2026, as I mentioned earlier, the supply picture looks drastically better in terms of the reduction in supply getting down to like 5,000 units is not a number we've seen in DC in a very, very long time.

當然，有些人可能在三、四、五個月前就離開了，但我認為現在的問題是，正如我之前提到的，隨著我們展望 2026 年，供應情況看起來要好得多，供應減少到 5000 台左右，這是我們在華盛頓特區很久很久以來都沒有見過的數字。

So on the demand side, then if we can clear through the shutdown and get back to kind of normal business, I think we'll be in much better shape. I think the question really is, what happens with some of the furloughs? Do they turn into permanent reductions, et cetera. We have not heard that, but certainly that's a possibility. So I think we just need better visibility coming out of the shutdown in terms of the potential impact. And then if there is one, then we would lag that for whatever time periods appropriate, six, seven, nine months.

所以從需求方面來看，如果我們能夠度過停工期，恢復正常營業，我認為我們的處境會好得多。我認為真正的問題是，部分休假員工的去留會如何安排？它們會變成永久性縮小嗎？等等。我們還沒有聽說過這件事，但這確實是一種可能性。所以我認為，我們需要更清楚地了解停工結束後可能產生的影響。如果確實存在這種情況，那麼我們將滯後一段時間，例如六個月、七個月或九個月。

As it relates to your second question on the AI side, we feel pretty good about our overall position. I mean, we're not necessarily -- I mean, the average age of our residents is in the kind of mid-30 range. It's not fresh out of college or even in the young-20s or mid-20s, which is where a lot the focus is lately in terms of kind of new entrance into the employment base and the types of jobs that they perform being likely more automated.

至於你提出的第二個關於人工智慧方面的問題，我們對自己的整體狀況感覺相當不錯。我的意思是，我們不一定——我的意思是，我們居民的平均年齡在30歲中期左右。他們不是剛從大學畢業的年輕人，甚至不是二十出頭或二十五六歲的年輕人，而最近人們的關注點大多集中在這個年齡段，因為他們是就業市場的新成員，而且他們從事的工作類型可能越來越自動化。

The other thing I would say is, particularly in some of the markets that we're in in the coastal regions, they're pretty high value add jobs. So when you think of the people that are coming into San Francisco or Seattle as an example, more and more of the demand for that activity is people with the skills to help propel AI forward give an example. I mean, I was in San Francisco not too long ago in Seattle, and we talk to our teams on the ground, people coming in looking for new apartments, propelling the momentum you see in that market, these people coming in, heavily in the AI sector and other sectors, highly educated, coming potentially from somewhere else within the region.

我還要補充一點，尤其是在我們所在的沿海地區的一些市場，這些都是高附加價值的工作。因此，以來到舊金山或西雅圖的人們為例，對這類活動的需求越來越大，這些人具備推動人工智慧發展的技能。我的意思是，不久前我去了舊金山和西雅圖，我們和當地的團隊交流，了解人們來這裡尋找新公寓的情況，這推動了你看到的市場發展勢頭，這些人大多來自人工智慧領域和其他領域，受過高等教育，可能來自該地區的其他地方。

So we feel good about, the high value add nature of the jobs in those regions still likely being the winning formula as opposed to maybe the lower value add jobs that might go away in some of the service industry industries’ back office operations, customer service operations, things of that sort.

因此，我們感到欣慰的是，這些地區的高附加價值工作仍然可能是製勝之道，而不是某些服務業（例如後台營運、客戶服務營運等）中可能消失的低附加價值工作。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

Alexander Goldfarb，Piper Sandler。

Two questions. The first is on the asset sales, the $585 million in the quarter of, I think all of those were developments and it was a slight economic loss. Just curious, you guys speak about the value creation, so the economic loss definitely jumps out. So is there anything specific? Was it one or two of these projects that drove that or in aggregate just want to better understand why there was a loss on the sale?

兩個問題。首先是關於資產出售，本季的 5.85 億美元，我認為所有這些都是發展項目，造成了輕微的經濟損失。我很好奇，你們都在談論價值創造，所以經濟損失肯定會被特別提及。那麼有什麼具體的事情嗎？是其中一兩個項目導致了這種情況，還是所有項目加在一起導致了這種情況？我們只是想更了解為什麼這次出售會虧損？

Yeah, hey Alex, it's Matt.

嗨，Alex，我是Matt。

So those particular sales actually, two of the six were acquisitions were Archstone assets, and four of the six were assets we developed, so, it was a mix and those particular communities, it was really driven by two where there was a material loss relative to our economic basis. One was an asset we developed was Brooklyn Bay, which was kind of an unusual submarket pocket in South Brooklyn, not a very large asset, less than $100-million investment, but that one was one that wasn't one of our better investment decisions.

所以實際上，這六筆交易中有兩筆是收購的 Archstone 資產，六筆交易中有四筆是我們開發的資產，所以情況比較複雜。而這六筆交易主要是由兩筆相對於我們經濟基礎而言造成重大損失的交易所推動的。其中一項是我們開發的資產是布魯克林灣，它是布魯克林南部一個比較特殊的細分市場，規模不大，投資不到 1 億美元，但這不是我們最好的投資決策之一。

And the other one was one of the assets in NoMa that we got from Archstone and NoMa's just been one of the uniquely difficult submarkets in the district and really anywhere in our footprint really ever since we bought it and we bought 60 plus assets from Archstone and most of them have been pretty good investments and obviously that whole platform investment was very favorable for us, but once in a while in a portfolio that size you're going to get one or two that don't do so well. So you know that was kind of what happened there.

另一個資產是我們從 Archstone 收購的 NoMa 資產之一。自從我們收購以來，NoMa 一直是該地區乃至我們業務範圍內最難駕馭的子市場之一。我們從 Archstone 收購了 60 多項資產，其中大部分都是相當不錯的投資。顯然，整個平台投資對我們來說非常有利，但偶爾在如此規模的投資組合中，也會有一兩項表現不佳。所以你知道，事情大概就是這樣。

But I'll tell you, even I was looking at it today -- even on the $800 million in dispos that we have for the entire year this year, which includes this $600 million. The unlevered IRR on that whole basket of 2025 dispos is in the [mid-8s], so it's still pretty good investment returns given that. There are years when certainly I think on average, we're probably in the low double-digits, but that's still a pretty good investment return and I think as our long-term track record has really been second to none, I think in the REIT space at least in the multi-family space for an awful lot of years.

但我告訴你，即使是我今天也關注了這件事——即使是我們今年全年8億美元的資產處置額，其中包括這6億美元。2025 年所有待售資產的無槓桿內部收益率 (IRR) 為 8 倍多，因此考慮到這一點，投資回報率仍然相當不錯。當然，有些年份，平均而言，我們的收益率可能只有兩位數，但這仍然是一個相當不錯的投資回報。而且我認為，就房地產投資信託基金（REIT）領域，至少在多戶住宅領域，我們的長期業績記錄確實是首屈一指的，這種情況已經持續了很多年。

Okay, and then that (multiple speakers)--

好的，然後就是那個（多位發言者）——

Alex, the other (technical difficulty) I just add on the Matt's commentary is these are a set of assets that have been on our target list for a while now, and we're waiting for asset values to recover to a certain degree to be able to execute. And so in any portfolio you're going to have some low performers, but we really think about this is pruning those assets out, redeploying that capital into higher growth opportunities.

Alex，我補充Matt的評論，另一個（技術難題）是，這些資產已經在我們的目標清單上一段時間了，我們正在等待資產價值恢復到一定程度才能執行。因此，任何投資組合中都會有一些表現不佳的資產，但我們真正考慮的是剔除這些資產，並將這些資金重新部署到成長機會更高的領域。

Okay. And then the second question is, it definitely seems like in REIT land people are discovering, nuancing the markets more, right? Like you might want very West Side LA or East Side in Seattle or different -- more northern Virginia. So as you look at your development, pipeline and your land options. Have you like done -- has there been a big culling where you're like, hey, some of those sites that we originally picked, they're not in submarkets we want anymore. Just trying to understand better how the -- as you start the next round of projects, how that has evolved versus what your land bank or land options were a few years ago.

好的。第二個問題是，在房地產投資信託基金領域，人們似乎正在發現並更細緻地分析市場，對嗎？例如，你可能喜歡洛杉磯西區或西雅圖東區，或完全不同的——維吉尼亞北部地區。所以，當你審視你的開發案、管道和土地選擇時。你們有沒有進行過大規模的篩選，例如，我們最初選擇的某些站點，現在不再位於我們想要的細分市場中了？我只是想更了解——隨著你開始下一輪項目，情況發生了怎樣的變化，與幾年前你的土地儲備或土地選擇相比又發生了怎樣的變化。

Yeah, Alex, I would say we've been pretty mindful of that really for the last several years, so. If you look at our dev rights book today, it's almost all -- I mean, it is -- it's both bottom up and top down, right? We're looking for the best risk adjusted returns and we are looking to generate value creation on every deal we do, but we are also looking to develop assets that we think are going to be good long-term performers in our portfolio.

是的，Alex，我想說，在過去的幾年裡，我們一直都非常注意這一點。如果你看看我們今天的開發者權限手冊，你會發現幾乎全部——我的意思是，確實如此——它既有自下而上的，也有自上而下的，對吧？我們追求的是最佳的風險調整後收益，我們希望在每一筆交易中創造價值，同時我們也希望開發我們認為在投資組合中能夠長期表現良好的資產。

And so we do actually incentivize that. We will demand a higher target yield if it's in a submarket we think is a little bit weaker. But we've been kind of attacking that way for a while now. And just to give you another example, Ben mentioned, kind of within the Mid-Atlantic, more focused on Northern Virginia within Southern California, we've been really focused on San Diego, which is almost an expansion region for us, and this quarter we just started a very big project in San Diego.

所以，我們其實會鼓勵這種做法。如果某個細分市場我們認為稍微疲軟，我們將要求更高的目標報酬率。但我們已經採取這種進攻方式一段時間了。再舉個例子，正如本所提到的，在大西洋中部地區，尤其是在南加州的北維吉尼亞地區，我們一直非常關注聖地牙哥，這幾乎是我們的擴張區域，而且本季我們在聖地牙哥啟動了一個非常大的計畫。

We have two deals under construction in San Diego now, two more development rights, and we haven't started a development in LA -- LA County for five or six years. So our focus is completely on San Diego, Orange County, and then Ventura in SoCal is an example and again in Seattle, same thing. Our portfolio is heavily East Side. Our development focus has been entirely on the east side really for the last seven or eight years.

我們現在在聖地牙哥有兩個在建項目，還有兩個開發權，而我們在洛杉磯縣已經有五、六年沒有啟動任何開發項目了。所以我們的重點完全放在聖地牙哥、橘子縣，然後南加州的文圖拉就是一個例子，西雅圖也是。我們的投資組合主要集中在東區。過去七、八年裡，我們的發展重點一直完全放在東部地區。

Alex, I'd flip your question, which is, in an environment where others are pulling back and don't have our capabilities, these are the windows we actually can move on our best real estate, structure them the best way. You think about the amount of land that we actually have investment in today, very, very low, and these also tend (technical difficulty) -- this is the environment also this cohort of projects tend to be some of our most profitable, both for the sort of the upfront deal striking that we do as well as for those projects opening a couple of years from now facing less new supply.

Alex，我想反過來問你，在其他人都在退縮、不具備我們能力的環境下，這些正是我們能夠抓住最佳機會，以最佳方式構建自身優勢的窗口期。想想我們目前實際投資的土地數量，非常非常少，而且這些項目往往（技術難度）——這也是目前的情況，這類項目往往是我們最賺錢的項目之一，無論是我們達成的那種前期交易，還是那些在幾年後面臨新供應較少的開工項目。

Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho Securities.

Haendel St. Juste，瑞穗證券。

This is [Mike] on with Haendel at Mizuho.

這是麥克在瑞穗銀行與韓德爾的對話。

My question is, does the DC DOGE job cuts multiplier effect on the DMV region, give you less confidence in market rent growth going into 2026? And how does that potentially impact the acquisition property and your portfolio in that region?

我的問題是，華盛頓特區就業保障部 (DOGE) 的裁員對華盛頓特區、馬裡蘭州和維吉尼亞州 (DMV) 地區的乘數效應，是否會降低您對 2026 年市場租金成長的信心？那會對該地區的收購物業和您的投資組合產生怎樣的潛在影響？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mike, it's Sean.

麥克，我是肖恩。

Two things. One is, in terms of the ripple effect, as I mentioned earlier, the DOGE impact, if anything is probably being felt around now given the lag effect between the time people were noticed and when they actually departed. If there was a ripple effect, we probably would be seeing more of that now. I think it's a little uncertain at this point that we've actually seen that.

兩件事。一方面，就漣漪效應而言，正如我之前提到的，狗狗幣的影響，如果說有什麼影響的話，可能現在才開始顯現，因為人們注意到這一點和他們實際離開之間存在滯後效應。如果真有連鎖反應，我們現在應該會看到更多類似的情況了。我認為目前還不能確定我們是否真的看到了這一點。

And then on your second question, we have not acquired anything in this region in quite a long time in terms of assets.

至於你的第二個問題，就資產而言，我們已經很久沒有在這個地區收購任何資產了。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

This is [Amy].

這是[艾米]

Are the remaining deliveries and lease ups from the supply cycle more concentrated in urban or suburban areas?

剩餘的交付和租賃環節在供應鏈中是更集中在城市地區還是郊區？

And then if we do see interest rates continue to tick lower and development activity pick back up, do you think that (technical difficulty) would be more likely to be concentrated in urban or suburban locations?

如果利率繼續走低，開發活動回升，您認為（技術難題）更有可能集中在城市地區還是郊區？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Hey, Amy. It's Matt.

嗨，艾米。是馬特。

So, as you look out over the next year or so, there's still more deliveries coming next year as a percentage of stock across our footprint in urban submarkets and suburban submarkets. There are a couple of regions where that's not true. I think specifically Northern Cal and maybe New York, but in general, in almost all of our other regions, we're still seeing -- we still expect a bit more supply urban than suburban. The gap between the two is narrowing. It was wider two years ago. It was a little bit wider this year, but actually I'm a little surprised there's still urban supply coming.

因此，展望未來一年左右，明年在我們城市次市場和郊區次市場的庫存佔比仍將增加。但有幾個地區並非如此。我認為具體到北加州，或許還有紐約，但總的來說，在我們幾乎所有其他地區，我們仍然看到——我們仍然預計城市供應量會比郊區供應量略高一些。兩者之間的差距正在縮小。兩年前它更寬。今年的供應量略有增加，但實際上，我有點驚訝城市供應仍然充足。

As you look out beyond that, where the next slug of starts might be. The economics on development certainly work better in suburban submarkets today. That's what we're finding. I think that's what the market is finding. However, entitlements are more difficult, at least in our established region in the suburbs, and so you have to have been at it for a while if you're going to have a deal ready to go.

當你放眼更遠的地方，下一批星星可能就在那裡。如今，郊區次級市場的發展經濟學效果顯然較好。這就是我們發現的情況。我認為這就是市場正在發現的問題。然而，獲得福利更加困難，至少在我們郊區的成熟地區是這樣，所以如果你想達成協議，你必須為此努力一段時間。

And the other thing that -- we have half an eye on, I'd say, is in many of the urban cores, the cities are now trying to encourage conversion, adaptive reuse of outdated office to multi-family, and they're actually providing incentives to do that. So it is possible that if that starts to make sense, that supply could materialize fairly quickly because those are existing buildings that would be converted with a shorter build cycle time.

還有一件事——我想說，我們比較關注的是，在許多城市中心，城市現在正試圖鼓勵將過時的辦公大樓改造為多戶住宅，並且他們實際上正在提供激勵措施來這樣做。因此，如果這種做法可行，那麼供應可能很快就會實現，因為這些都是現有建築，改造週期較短。

Alex Kim, Zelman and Associates.

Alex Kim，Zelman and Associates。

Just a quick one for me. We saw the spread between renewals and new moves widen again this quarter and part of that's due to the seasonal trend this time of year, but curious, if you have any thoughts on that dynamic and what that means for rent growth for both front end pricing and renewals moving into '26.

我只需要簡單回答一下。本季我們看到續租和新租之間的差距再次擴大，部分原因是由於每年的這個時候的季節性趨勢，但我很好奇，您對這種動態有什麼看法，以及這對2026年新租價格和續租的租金增長意味著什麼。

Yeah, Alex, it's Sean.

是的，Alex，我是Sean。

Yes, fair point. I mean, typically you would start to see a seasonal shift between the rent change for renewals versus movements at this time of year, and nothing new on that front. Other than on the -in side, as I indicated in my prepared remarks, it has been weaker on the move-in side in terms of rent change than we would have anticipated, reflecting some of the deceleration that we've talked about in some of the markets that I identified earlier like the Mid-Atlantic and LA and Denver.

是的，有道理。我的意思是，通常情況下，每年的這個時候，續租租金的變化和房屋買賣的租金變化之間都會出現季節性變化，而今年這方面並沒有什麼新情況。除了入住方面，正如我在準備好的演講稿中指出的那樣，就租金變化而言，入住方面的情況比我們預期的要疲軟，這反映了我們之前提到的一些市場（如中大西洋地區、洛杉磯和丹佛）的租金增速放緩的情況。

So certainly a little more meaningful than seasonal in those particular markets, but you would expect that to continue likely through year end. And you don't start to see any kind of shift in that in a material way until you get to the spring leasing season and asking rents really start to move up through that period of time typically. So that's what would normally occur. At this point we haven't provided a forecast for 2026, but that would follow the historical norm.

因此，在這些特定市場中，季節性因素的影響肯定比季節性因素更大，但預計這種情況可能會持續到年底。直到春季租賃旺季到來，你才會開始看到這種變化發生實質的轉變，而在此期間，租金通常會開始上漲。所以通常情況下就會發生這種情況。目前我們還沒有對 2026 年做出預測，但這將符合歷史慣例。

This now concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to Ben Schall for closing comments.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我把發言權交還給本·沙爾，請他做總結發言。

I thank you everyone for joining us today and we look forward to connecting with you soon and at NAREIT in early December.

感謝各位今天蒞臨，我們期待很快與大家再次相聚，也期待在12月初的NAREIT大會上與大家見面。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。請斷開線路，祝您有美好的一天。