艾芙隆海灣社區公司 (AVB) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to AvalonBay Communities second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Your host for today's conference call is Mr. Jason Reilley, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Reilley, you may begin your conference call.

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加 AvalonBay Communities 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天電話會議的主持人是投資者關係副總裁 Jason Reilley 先生。雷利先生，您可以開始電話會議了。

Thank you, Zico, and welcome to AvalonBay Communities second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Before we begin, please note that forward-looking statements may be made during this discussion. There are a variety of risks and uncertainties associated with forward-looking statements and actual results may differ materially.

謝謝你，Zico，歡迎參加 AvalonBay Communities 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。在我們開始之前，請注意，本次討論中可能會出現前瞻性的陳述。前瞻性陳述涉及多種風險和不確定性，實際結果可能有重大差異。

There is a discussion of these risks and uncertainties in yesterday afternoon's press release as well as in the company's Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filed with the SEC. As usual, the press release does include an attachment with definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures and other terms, which may be used in today's discussion.

昨天下午的新聞稿以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表和 10-Q 表中都討論了這些風險和不確定性。像往常一樣，新聞稿確實包含一個附件，其中列出了非公認會計準則財務指標和其他術語的定義和對賬，這些術語可能會在今天的討論中使用。

The attachment is also available on our website at www.avalonbay.com/earnings, and we encourage you to refer to this information during the review of our operating results and financial performance. And with that, I will turn the call over to Ben Schall, CEO and President of AvalonBay Communities, for his remarks. Ben?

附件也可在我們的網站 www.avalonbay.com/earnings 上找到，我們鼓勵您在審查我們的經營業績和財務表現時參考這些資訊。接下來，我將把電話轉給 AvalonBay Communities 執行長兼總裁 Ben Schall，請他來演講。本？

Thank you, Jason, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. I'm joined by Kevin O'Shea, our Chief Financial Officer; Sean Breslin, our Chief Operating Officer; and Matt Birenbaum, our Chief Investment Officer.

謝謝傑森，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。與我一起出席的還有我們的財務長 Kevin O'Shea、我們的營運長 Sean Breslin 和我們的首席投資長 Matt Birenbaum。

Starting with our key takeaways on slide 4 of our earnings presentation. Our second quarter and first half of the year results exceeded our initial guidance. As Sean will discuss further, our revenue growth was better than expected through the first half of the year, with higher occupancy and other rental revenue growth driving most of the favorable variance.

從我們的收益報告第 4 張投影片上的重點開始。我們第二季和上半年的業績超出了我們最初的預期。正如肖恩將進一步討論的那樣，我們的收入成長在今年上半年優於預期，入住率的提高和其他租金收入的成長推動了大部分有利的變化。

We also benefited from tight management of operating expenses, which contributed to our same-store NOI outperformance during the first half of the year. As Kevin will detail, these operating expense savings carry through to our updated outlook for the year with OpEx growth now forecasted at 3.1%, 100 basis points better than our original guidance. and translating into higher NOI growth in 2025, now projected at 2.7%.

我們也受惠於營運費用的嚴格管理，有助於我們上半年同店淨利表現優異。正如 Kevin 所詳述的，這些營運費用的節省將延續到我們對今年的最新展望中，目前預測營運支出成長率為 3.1%，比我們最初的預期高出 100 個基點，並轉化為 2025 年更高的淨利潤增長率，目前預計為 2.7%。

While our expectations for job growth in the second half of the year are a little more muted than they were in January, demand remains healthy across most of our portfolio. And importantly, new supply in our established regions continues to decline to levels not seen in over a decade.

雖然我們對下半年就業成長的預期比一月略低，但我們投資組合中的大部分產品的需求依然強勁。重要的是，我們現有地區的新供應量繼續下降至十多年來未見的水平。

This low level of supply should continue for the foreseeable future given that the barriers to new development, particularly in our suburban established regions are substantially greater than most markets across the country.

鑑於新開發的障礙（特別是在我們郊區的成熟地區）遠大於全國大多數市場，這種低供應水平應該會在可預見的未來持續下去。

As Matt will further discuss, our $3 billion of development projects are expected to continue to generate differentiated external growth with our development underway trending above our pro forma stabilized yields. While we experienced some timing delays in occupancies in the first half of the year, we expect to occupy roughly the same number of homes by year-end.

正如馬特將進一步討論的那樣，我們價值 30 億美元的開發項目預計將繼續產生差異化的外部成長，我們正在進行的開發趨勢將高於我們的預測穩定收益率。雖然我們在上半年入住率方面遇到了一些時間延遲，但我們預計到年底入住的房屋數量將大致相同。

Looking ahead to 2026 and beyond, this unique book of business will generate meaningful incremental earnings and value creation and is one of the primary reasons we continually produce core FFO growth in excess of our same-store NOI growth. We're also making strong progress in advancing on our portfolio allocation objectives.

展望 2026 年及以後，這份獨特的業務帳簿將產生有意義的增量收益和價值創造，也是我們持續實現核心 FFO 成長超過同店 NOI 成長的主要原因之一。我們在實現投資組合配置目標方面也取得了長足的進展。

We're well on our way towards our target of acquiring $900 million of assets this year, most of which is being funded by capital from dispositions, a continual process that we're confident will position the portfolio for stronger cash flow growth over time.

我們正在順利實現今年收購 9 億美元資產的目標，其中大部分資金來自處置資本，我們相信，這是一個持續的過程，將使投資組合隨著時間的推移實現更強勁的現金流成長。

And lastly, on the key takeaways. Our balance sheet is in terrific shape, having raised $1.3 billion of capital year-to-date at an initial cost of 5.0%, an attractive cost of capital relative to our uses and particularly to yields of north of 6% on new development projects. Page 5 highlights our Q2 and first half of the year metrics, including core FFO growth of 3.3% year-to-date, continuing to position us towards the top of the sector.

最後，談談關鍵要點。我們的資產負債表狀況極佳，年初至今已籌集 13 億美元資本，初始成本為 5.0%，相對於我們的用途而言，這是一個有吸引力的資本成本，尤其是相對於新開發項目 6% 以上的收益率而言。第 5 頁重點介紹了我們的第二季和上半年指標，包括年初至今核心 FFO 成長率為 3.3%，繼續使我們保持行業領先地位。

We also started $610 million of new development projects in the first half of the year and have now raised our target to $1.7 billion for development starts for the full year, up from $1.6 billion. We continue to believe that we are uniquely positioned to secure an outsized share of what will be a lower level of starts in the industry, utilizing our strategic capabilities to execute on high-quality projects in an attractive long-term basis.

我們也在上半年啟動了價值 6.1 億美元的新開發項目，目前已將全年開發案開工目標從 16 億美元提高到 17 億美元。我們始終相信，我們擁有獨特的優勢，可以利用我們的戰略能力，在具有吸引力、長期的基礎上實施高品質的項目，確保在行業較低開工水平中獲得超大份額。

Page 6 provides the road map for our second quarter core FFO of $2.82 per share relative to guidance of $2.77 with revenue exceeding by $0.02, operating expenses better by $0.05, partially offset by lease-up NOI and overhead.

第 6 頁提供了我們第二季核心 FFO 的路線圖，相對於指導價 2.77 美元，核心 FFO 為每股 2.82 美元，收入超過 0.02 美元，營運費用好於 0.05 美元，部分被租賃 NOI 和管理費用所抵消。

Please note that $0.02 of the $0.05 of the lower-than-expected operating expenses were timing related, which we now expect to incur later in 2025. As shown on slide 7, we head into the second half of the year with very healthy occupancy in our established regions, with total market occupancy at 94.8%.

請注意，低於預期的 0.05 美元營運費用中有 0.02 美元與時間有關，我們現在預計這將在 2025 年晚些時候發生。如投影片 7 所示，進入下半年，我們現有區域的入住率非常高，總市場入住率為 94.8%。

In contrast, market occupancy in the Sunbelt region stands at 89.5% as those markets continue to struggle with elevated levels of standing inventory from recent deliveries. Our established regions are also well-positioned from a new supply perspective with deliveries expected to drop to 80 basis points of stock in 2026, further supporting healthy operating fundamentals.

相較之下，陽光地帶的市場入住率為 89.5%，因為這些市場仍在努力應對近期交貨帶來的高庫存水準。從新的供應角度來看，我們現有的地區也處於有利地位，預計到 2026 年交付量將下降至 80 個基點，從而進一步支持健康的營運基本面。

Before turning it to Kevin, I want to take a moment to say thank you and congratulations to Jason Reilley. This is his last earnings call before his retirement from AvalonBay later this summer. After 21 years at the company and over a decade as our Head of Investor Relations, Jason has been an integral partner with the executive team here and a thoughtful resource to the investment community shaping the dialogue for AvalonBay and for the wider multifamily REIT sector.

在轉向凱文之前，我想花點時間向傑森·雷利表示感謝和祝賀。這是他今年夏天晚些時候從 AvalonBay 退休前的最後一次財報電話會議。在公司工作了 21 年並擔任了十多年的投資者關係主管後，Jason 已經成為了這裡執行團隊不可或缺的合作夥伴，並且是投資界的深思熟慮的資源，為 AvalonBay 和更廣泛的多戶型房地產投資信託基金 (REIT) 領域塑造對話。

Jason has also been a strong developer of talent, including most recently with Matt Grover, who will now be stepping in to lead our Investor Relations team. Many of you know Matt from his prior roles on the buy side and for the last three-plus years at AvalonBay. Congrats to Jason on his retirement, and we all wish him well in his next stage. I'll now turn it to Kevin to further discuss our updated outlook.

傑森也是一位出色的人才開發者，最近他與馬特·格羅弗 (Matt Grover) 合作，後者現在將接任領導我們的投資者關係團隊。你們中的許多人都認識 Matt，因為他之前在買方擔任過職務，並且在 AvalonBay 工作了三年多。祝賀傑森退役，我們都祝他在下一個階段一切順利。現在我將請凱文進一步討論我們的最新展望。

Thanks, Ben, and congrats, Jason, and excited to have Matt in the elevated role. Turning to slide 8. We present our updated operating and financial outlook for full year 2025. We are maintaining our full year core FFO per share guidance which at the midpoint is $11.39 per share, reflecting year-over-year earnings growth expectations of 3.5%.

謝謝，本，恭喜你，傑森，很高興馬特能擔任這一重要職位。翻到第 8 張投影片。我們介紹了 2025 年全年的最新營運和財務展望。我們維持全年核心 FFO 每股指引，中間值為每股 11.39 美元，反映出 3.5% 的年比獲利成長預期。

Our updated outlook reflects slightly higher same-store residential NOI growth offset by modestly lower lease-up NOI and the net impact of capital markets activity, transaction activity and overhead cost changes.

我們更新後的展望反映出同店住宅 NOI 成長略有上升，但被略低的租賃 NOI 以及資本市場活動、交易活動和間接成本變化的淨影響所抵消。

We now project same-store NOI growth of 2.7%, which is 30 basis points above our initial outlook. This improvement is driven by a 100 basis point reduction in expense growth, partially offset by a 20 basis point decline in revenue growth.

我們現在預計同店淨利潤成長率為 2.7%，比我們最初的預期高出 30 個基點。這項改善是由於費用成長減少 100 個基點，但被收入成長下降 20 個基點部分抵銷。

We've also modestly increased this year's development starts to $1.7 billion, up from $1.6 billion, and we've opportunistically completed our capital plan for the year at an attractive initial cost of 5%. While our full year guidance for core FFO per share remains unchanged, slide 9 highlights the impact on full year growth from updated expectations for key parts of our business as compared to our initial outlook.

我們還將今年的開發啟動資金從 16 億美元略微增加到 17 億美元，並且我們抓住機會，以 5% 的誘人初始成本完成了今年的資本計劃。雖然我們對每股核心 FFO 的全年指引保持不變，但第 9 張投影片重點介紹了與最初展望相比，對我們業務關鍵部分的最新預期對全年成長的影響。

Specifically, a $0.04 increase in same-store residential NOI and a $0.02 benefit from capital markets and transaction activity are expected to be offset by a $0.04 decline in NOI from new development and a $0.02 increase in overhead in other items.

具體而言，同店住宅 NOI 增加 0.04 美元和資本市場與交易活動收益 0.02 美元預計將被新開發項目 NOI 下降 0.04 美元和其他項目間接費用增加 0.02 美元所抵消。

And again, this results in an unchanged expectation for full year core FFO per share of $11.39 per share in 2025. Slide 10 provides a bridge from our second quarter core FFO per share to our projected third quarter midpoint. As is typical seasonally in our business, we expect sequential increases in same-store revenue and operating expenses as well as a continued ramp in lease-up NOI during the third quarter.

同樣，這也導致對 2025 年全年核心 FFO 每股 11.39 美元的預期保持不變。幻燈片 10 提供了從我們第二季度每股核心 FFO 到我們預計的第三季中點的橋樑。正如我們業務的典型季節性一樣，我們預計第三季同店收入和營運費用將連續增加，同時租賃淨營業收入也將持續上升。

In particular, we anticipate a $0.03 increase in same-store revenue, a $0.02 increase in NOI from new development and a $0.01 benefit from capital markets and transaction activity and other items will be offset by an $0.08 increase in same-store operating expenses driven by sequentially higher repairs and maintenance, utilities and property taxes.

具體來說，我們預計同店收入將增加 0.03 美元，新開發項目的淨營業利潤將增加 0.02 美元，資本市場和交易活動及其他項目的收益將增加 0.01 美元，但受維修和保養、水電費和財產稅連續增加的影響，同店運營費用將增加 0.08 美元，這將抵消上述增加。

Turning to slide 11. We also provide the components of our expected sequential increase in core FFO per share during the fourth quarter. Here again, we expect to benefit from typical seasonal sequential patterns in our business during the fourth quarter, including a $0.03 increase in same-store revenue, a $0.06 decrease in same-store operating expenses, a $0.04 increase in NOI from new development, and a $0.01 benefit from capital markets and transaction activity and other items. And with that overview of our updated outlook, I'll turn it over to Sean to discuss operations.

翻到第 11 張投影片。我們還提供了第四季度每股核心 FFO 預計將環比成長的組成部分。再次，我們預計第四季度我們的業務將受益於典型的季節性連續模式，包括同店收入增加 0.03 美元、同店營運費用減少 0.06 美元、新開發項目的淨利潤增加 0.04 美元，以及資本市場和交易活動及其他項目的收益 0.01 美元。在概述了我們最新的展望之後，我將把時間交給肖恩來討論營運。

All right. Thanks, Kevin. Moving to slide 12. Our updated outlook for same-store revenue growth is slightly below our original expectations, driven by a change in our same-store pool and underlying bad debt. The change in the same-store pool is primarily related to the pending sale of four assets in the District of Columbia in Q3, which Matt will talk about in a minute.

好的。謝謝，凱文。移至投影片 12。由於同店收入池的變動和潛在壞帳的影響，我們對同店營收成長的最新預期略低於我們最初的預期。同店資產池的變化主要與第三季哥倫比亞特區四項資產的待售有關，馬特稍後將對此進行討論。

In terms of underlying bad debt, which can be difficult to forecast, we've seen steady improvement over the past year, but are expecting it to be modestly unfavorable to our original budget. In terms of rate and occupancy, we're expecting lease rate growth to be 10 basis points below our original forecast, but fully offset by higher occupancy.

就難以預測的潛在壞帳而言，我們看到過去一年來情況穩步改善，但預計這對我們最初的預算來說會略有不利。在利率和入住率方面，我們預計租賃利率成長將比我們最初的預測低 10 個基點，但會被更高的入住率完全抵銷。

Turning to slide 13. Our same-store average asking rent exceeded our original expectations through May, but peaked in June earlier than our original outlook, is contributing to the roughly 10 basis points lower contribution from effective lease rates noted on the previous slide.

翻到第 13 張投影片。截至 5 月份，我們的同店平均租金超過了我們最初的預期，但 6 月份達到高峰的時間比我們最初的預期要早，這導致上一張幻燈片中提到的有效租賃率貢獻率下降了約 10 個基點。

Shifting to bad debt. As noted, the pace of improvement year-to-date has been modestly below our initial outlook. So we have adjusted our expectations for the second half of the year to reflect recent trends. Most regions are moving in a positive direction, but we continue to face some challenges regarding the impact of regulatory actions and overloaded court systems in portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New York, New Jersey regions.

轉為壞帳。如上所述，今年迄今的改善速度略低於我們最初的預期。因此，我們調整了對下半年的預期，以反映最近的趨勢。大多數地區正在朝著積極的方向發展，但我們仍然面臨一些挑戰，這些挑戰來自大西洋中部地區以及紐約、新澤西地區部分地區監管行動和法院系統超負荷的影響。

Moving to slide 14 to address our updated revenue outlook by region. We expect the New York, New Jersey, and Seattle regions to outperform our original budget.

前往投影片 14，討論我們按地區更新的收入展望。我們預計紐約、新澤西和西雅圖地區的業績將超出我們最初的預算。

Demand has been healthy in both regions with moderating supply supporting better pricing power and occupancy. In New York, New Jersey, our same-store portfolio averaged 96.3% economic occupancy during Q2, up about 30 basis points from Q1 with positive pricing trends across most of the suburban submarkets, which represent about two-thirds of our portfolio in the region.

這兩個地區的需求一直很健康，適度的供應支持了更好的定價能力和入住率。在紐約和新澤西州，我們第二季度的同店組合平均經濟入住率為 96.3%，比第一季度上升了約 30 個基點，大多數郊區子市場的價格趨勢都呈積極趨勢，這些子市場約占我們在該地區組合的三分之二。

In Seattle, we averaged 96.6% economic occupancy during Q2 and achieved greater than 3% rent change. We continue to see a reduction in the pace of new deliveries in the region, and the outlook for the second half of the year is positive. The Mid-Atlantic, Northern and Southern California and our expansion regions are projected to underperform our original outlook, while Boston is expected to be in line.

在西雅圖，我們第二季的平均經濟入住率為 96.6%，租金變動率超過 3%。我們繼續看到該地區新船交付速度的放緩，下半年的前景是積極的。預計中大西洋地區、北加州和南加州以及我們的擴張地區的表現將不如我們最初的預期，而波士頓的表現預計將與預期一致。

The Mid-Atlantic had a strong start to the year, but we've seen some softening in demand and pricing momentum over the last 60 days, most notably in Maryland and the District of Columbia. Northern Virginia has held up well thus far and produced mid-4% rent change during the second quarter.

大西洋中部地區今年開局強勁，但在過去 60 天裡，我們看到需求和價格動能減弱，最明顯的是馬裡蘭州和哥倫比亞特區。北維吉尼亞州迄今表現良好，第二季的租金變動幅度達到 4% 左右。

Given the level of uncertainty in the region, we've responded with a more conservative approach to pricing which is impacting our outlook on rates for the second half of the year. In Northern California, San Francisco continues to lead the region with almost 97% occupancy during Q2 and strong rent change of 8%. San Jose remains healthy with mid-96% occupancy and rent change in the 3.5% range for the quarter.

鑑於該地區的不確定性程度，我們採取了更保守的定價方式，這影響了我們對下半年利率的展望。在北加州，舊金山繼續領先該地區，第二季入住率接近 97%，租金強勁變化 8%。聖荷西的市場依然保持健康，入住率達到 96% 左右，本季租金變動在 3.5% 左右。

The East Bay is the laggard in the region, but will likely gain momentum later in '25 and '26 as performance there typically lags behind both San Francisco and San Jose. Looking forward, the volume of new supply in the Bay Area is expected to be the lowest of any of our regions at roughly 30 basis points of total inventory through 2026. So the overall outlook for the greater region is quite healthy for the next several quarters.

東灣是該地區的落後者，但由於其表現通常落後於舊金山和聖何塞，因此很可能在 25 年和 26 年後期獲得發展動力。展望未來，預計到 2026 年，灣區的新增供應量將是所有地區中最低的，約佔總庫存的 30 個基點。因此，未來幾季大區域的整體前景相當健康。

In Southern California, our expectations for full year revenue growth have moderated due to continued weakness in the labor market across LA, particularly in the entertainment industry. The increase in the state's film and tax credit program, which was adopted in late June, resulted in a more than doubling of the program from $330 million to $750 million to support the production of television and film in the state.

在南加州，由於洛杉磯勞動市場持續疲軟，尤其是娛樂產業，我們對全年營收成長的預期有所放緩。該州於 6 月底通過了電影和稅收抵免計劃，該計劃的資金增加了一倍多，從 3.3 億美元增加到 7.5 億美元，以支持該州的電視和電影製作。

It will hopefully provide a much needed boost to the local economy. Now I'll turn it to Matt to address our development and investment activity.

希望它能為當地經濟提供急需的推動力。現在我請馬特來談談我們的開發和投資活動。

All right. Great. Thanks, Sean. Looking at our current lease-up activity, as Kevin mentioned, we now expect development NOI for the year to be modestly lower than our budget at the start of the year. This is due to some delays in deliveries at several communities, as shown in the chart on the left on slide 15 as well as slower leasing velocity at two Denver communities where we completed construction late last year.

好的。偉大的。謝謝，肖恩。正如凱文所提到的，從我們目前的租賃活動來看，我們預計今年的開發淨營業收入將略低於年初的預算。這是由於幾個社區的交付出現一些延遲，如第 15 張幻燈片左側的圖表所示，以及我們去年年底完成建設的兩個丹佛社區的租賃速度較慢。

We completed at least 330 fewer homes in total in the first half of the year than we expected, with most of those now expected to be absorbed in the second half, delaying the NOI uplift as these homes start to generate revenue into the fourth quarter and into 2026.

我們上半年完成的房屋總數比預期至少少了 330 套，其中大部分預計在下半年被吸收，這將推遲 NOI 的增長，因為這些房屋要到第四季度和 2026 年才會開始產生收入。

With this reduction in 2025 lease-up NOI, the projected increase for '26 should be that much greater as we still expect to occupy 3,000 additional homes next year. Importantly, these delays are not impacting the overall profitability of our development activities, as shown on slide 16.

隨著 2025 年租賃 NOI 的減少，2026 年的預計增幅應該會更大，因為我們預計明年仍將新增 3,000 套房屋。重要的是，這些延遲不會影響我們開發活動的整體獲利能力，如投影片 16 所示。

Our $2.9 billion in development underway is completely match-funded, was underwritten to a yield on cost of 6.2% based on estimated market rents at the time of construction start and continues to reflect outperformance relative to that initial underwriting as communities enter lease-up.

我們正在進行的 29 億美元開發項目完全由配套資金提供，根據開工時的預計市場租金，承保成本收益率為 6.2%，並且隨著社區進入租賃期，其表現將繼續優於最初的承保。

Our long-standing practice is to report rents on our development underway at the initial untrended underwriting until we have leased about 20% of the homes at which point we mark the rents to current market levels.

我們的長期做法是在初始非趨勢承保時報告我們正在進行的開發項目的租金，直到我們出租了大約 20% 的房屋，此時我們將租金標記為當前市場水平。

Only 3 of the 21 communities currently underway have reached that point as of the end of Q2, but we are running 30 basis points ahead of pro forma on those three based on modest rent outperformance of $80 per month and some hard cost savings from the initial capital budget.

截至第二季末，在建的 21 個社區中，只有 3 個達到了這一水平，但基於每月 80 美元的適度租金表現和初始資本預算中的一些硬成本節省，我們對這三個社區的預期收益高出 30 個基點。

We do have another seven communities, which are just starting lease-up in the second half of this year, and we expect this trend to continue at those projects as well. Six of those seven have set their opening rents, which are 3% above pro forma, and many of those are also likely to finish with savings in their capital budgets. And the 11 communities that won't start lease-up until 2026 or '27 are continuing to see encouraging early savings on their construction buyout.

我們確實還有另外七個社區，它們在今年下半年才開始租賃，我們預計這種趨勢在這些項目中也將持續下去。其中六家已設定了開業租金，比預計租金高出 3%，其中許多公司還可能在資本預算方面節省。而直到 2026 年或 2027 年才開始租賃的 11 個社區在建築收購方面繼續獲得令人鼓舞的早期節省。

Turning to slide 17. While Q2 was a quiet quarter for us on the transaction front, we have a number of pending transactions expected to close in the third quarter. This includes almost $600 million currently under contract for sale with those proceeds used to fund $295 million in pending acquisitions as well as to fund the cash component of the Texas acquisitions we completed last quarter.

翻到第 17 張投影片。雖然第二季度對我們來說在交易方面是一個平靜的季度，但我們有許多待完成的交易預計將在第三季完成。其中包括目前合約銷售金額近 6 億美元，所得款項將用於資助 2.95 億美元的待定收購以及資助我們上個季度完成的德克薩斯州收購的現金部分。

This increased trading activity further advances our long-standing portfolio allocation goals as we reallocate capital within our portfolio from older urban assets in our established regions to younger suburban assets in our expansion regions. The pending dispositions includes four assets in the District of Columbia as well as communities in Seattle and New York.

隨著我們將投資組合中的資本從成熟區域的舊城市資產重新分配到擴張區域的較年輕的郊區資產，交易活動的增加進一步推進了我們長期以來的投資組合配置目標。待處置的資產包括哥倫比亞特區以及西雅圖和紐約的社區的四項資產。

Executing on asset sales in DC is particularly challenging and hard to predict due to the unique Washington DC TOPA law. While these transactions have been in the works for an extended period of time dating back to 2024, the unusual level of uncertainty of the process led to these assets being included in our same-store bucket at the beginning of the year.

由於華盛頓特區獨特的 TOPA 法律，在華盛頓特區執行資產出售尤其具有挑戰性且難以預測。雖然這些交易已經籌備了很長一段時間，可以追溯到 2024 年，但由於流程異常不確定，這些資產在年初就被納入了我們的同店資產類別。

Now that the timing is confirmed, they've been removed from same-store, driving 10 basis points of the reduction to our projected same-store revenue growth rate, as Sean mentioned. We look forward to providing more detail on all of these transactions after they close. And with that, we're ready to open the line up for questions.

現在時間已經確定，他們已經從同店中移除，正如肖恩所提到的，這導致我們預計的同店收入成長率降低了 10 個基點。我們期待在所有這些交易結束後提供更多詳細資訊。現在，我們準備開始回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Eric Wolfe, Citibank.

花旗銀行的埃里克·沃爾夫。

It's Nick Joseph here with Eric. Maybe just on the delayed occupancies and development. You mentioned the Denver communities. So I was just hoping to get a little more color on what's impacting the pace there and kind of what's the normal leasing pace versus what you're seeing?

我是尼克·約瑟夫，和艾瑞克在一起。或許只是入住率和開發時間延遲。您提到了丹佛社區。所以我只是希望更多地了解影響那裡租賃速度的因素，以及正常的租賃速度與您所看到的相比如何？

Sure, Eric, it's Matt. So the pace has been fine. The deals that we had in lease-up in the second quarter, we're averaging about 30 homes per month in leasing, which is more or less what we would expect for this time of year.

當然，艾瑞克，我是馬特。所以節奏很好。我們在第二季的租賃交易中，平均每月租賃約 30 套房屋，這或多或少符合我們對今年這個時候的預期。

And again, the shortfall is really a little bit of it is based on just some deliveries moving around to later in the year at some communities. And then there is one lease-up in particular we have in urban Denver Governor's Park, where we've had to offer elevated concessions and the pace is not what we had originally anticipated.

再次強調，短缺確實很小，這是因為一些社區的部分配送要到今年稍後才會完成。然後，我們在丹佛州長公園有一個特別的租賃項目，我們必須提供更高的優惠，但速度並不像我們最初預期的那樣。

That's a very, very competitive submarket within urban Denver. We have a second lease up in suburban Denver, up in Westminster. That one's going fine, but it's also just a little bit behind pace but maybe not as far behind as Gov Park. And that -- I guess the other one that I didn't mention is we do have a lease-up in suburban Maryland, which is also seeing a little bit of elevated concession activity. So it really is contained to those two markets.

這是丹佛市區競爭非常激烈的一個次市場。我們在丹佛郊區和威斯敏斯特有第二份租約。這個進展不錯，但也只是稍微落後了一點，但可能沒有像 Gov Park 那樣落後。而且——我想我沒有提到的另一件事是，我們在馬裡蘭州郊區確實有一個租賃區，那裡的特許經營活動也有一些增加。所以它確實只限於這兩個市場。

But as we look to a lot of the lease-ups we're opening now, they're in pretty strong markets. So we are seeing pretty good traction in the rest of the book.

但當我們觀察現在開設的許多租賃業務時，我們發現它們的市場表現相當強勁。因此，我們看到這本書的其餘部分非常受歡迎。

And just given the peak leasing season seem to have occurred a little sooner than expected and maybe the deliveries are a little later than expected for some of these. So what gives you the confidence by year-end, you'll have the same number of occupied units if traffic maybe slows down a bit from missing the peak leasing season?

而且由於租賃旺季似乎比預期來得早一些，其中一些產品的交付可能比預期的要晚一些。那麼，如果因為錯過租賃旺季導致客流量有所下降，您怎麼能有信心在年底時仍能擁有相同數量的入住單位呢？

Yeah, Nick, it's Sean. As Matt noted, we've had pretty good velocity at the various communities averaging around 30 a month, even at Governor's Park in Denver, which is sort of in the middle of the battle zone with a lot of supply in urban Denver, we did 35 a month in the second quarter.

是的，尼克，我是肖恩。正如馬特所說，我們在各個社區的配送速度相當快，平均每月配送 30 份左右，即使是在丹佛市的州長公園，這個位於戰區中心、丹佛市區物資充足的地方，我們在第二季度的配送速度也達到了每月 35 份。

So just when you get things a little bit late from a delivery standpoint, you got to push a little harder on concessions to try and get that velocity, so that's kind of the simple answer as it relates to the deliveries and then we'll lag the occupancies.

因此，從交付的角度來看，當你的貨品稍微晚一點的時候，你必須更加努力地做出讓步，以嘗試獲得這種速度，所以這是與交付相關的簡單答案，然後我們就會落後於入住率。

I guess, I would -- this is Matt. I would also add just again, you look at the market mix of where we're expecting those occupancies in the second half and a fair number of them are in those new lease-ups we're talking about. We just opened for leasing, for example, in South Miami. I think we're running ahead there of what we expected. We just opened in Wayne in Northern New Jersey.

我想，我會的——這是馬特。我還想再補充一點，看看我們預計下半年入住率的市場組合，其中相當一部分是我們正在談論的新租賃。例如，我們剛剛在南邁阿密開放租賃業務。我認為我們已經超越了預期。我們剛在新澤西州北部的韋恩開幕。

We have another job just getting ready to open in Parsippany, New Jersey. So those are markets which are seeing plenty of strength.

我們還有另一項工作正準備在新澤西州帕西帕尼開展。因此，這些市場正展現出充足的實力。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

史蒂夫‧薩誇 (Steve Sakwa)，Evercore ISI。

Yeah. I guess I wanted to talk about the chart on, I guess, page 13, the asking rent trend. And obviously, there was a clearer noticeable kind of leveling off in sort of the maybe mid-May time frame. And I guess I'm just curious, from your perspective, what do you think happened there? And why do you think things sort of softened up or didn't continue that normal seasonal upturn?

是的。我想談談第 13 頁的圖表，即租金趨勢圖。顯然，大約在五月中旬，出現了更明顯的趨於平穩的趨勢。我只是好奇，從你的角度來看，你認為那裡發生了什麼事？您認為為什麼情況會變得緩和或沒有延續正常的季節性好轉？

Yeah. Steve, it's Sean. Happy to talk about that. What you can tell from looking at the chart, things were ahead of our expectation for a good portion of the first half of the year. But I think you -- what we observed is demand has been a little bit softer, primarily our expectation is tied to slightly weaker job growth in the first half of the year than originally anticipated.

是的。史蒂夫，我是肖恩。很高興談論這個。從圖表可以看出，今年上半年的大部分時間裡，情況都超出了我們的預期。但我認為——我們觀察到的需求有所減弱，主要是因為我們的預期是今年上半年的就業成長比最初預期的略弱。

So when you start to look across the footprint at that across the first half of the year, we ended up with about 100,000 fewer jobs than originally projected. So that's probably the primary driver. It usually doesn't show up in the data until a little bit later, but you can see that in the job growth figures that we have today.

因此，當你開始回顧今年上半年的足跡時，你會發現我們最終的就業機會比最初預計的少了約 10 萬個。這可能是主要驅動因素。它通常要過一段時間才會在數據中顯現出來，但你可以在我們今天掌握的就業成長數據中看到這一點。

Okay. And then maybe just focusing on bad debt. I mean, your figures are still running, I guess, noticeably above many of your peers. And I'm just wondering I don't think that's necessarily a market mix issue. So I'm just trying to kind of figure out why your portfolio might be having a little bit more headwind here and they're not recovering as quickly as some of the other portfolios.

好的。然後也許只關注壞帳。我的意思是，我猜你的數據仍然明顯高於你的許多同行。我只是想知道我不認為這一定是市場組合問題。所以我只是想弄清楚為什麼你的投資組合在這裡可能會遇到一些阻力，而且它們的恢復速度不如其他一些投資組合那麼快。

Yeah. Steve, happy to chat about that one. I mean, first, what I'd say is that I can't speak to everyone else's policies as it relates to bad debt, what they reserve for, what they write off, et cetera. But I think as you probably know, and we've stressed in the past that with our customer care center in Virginia Beach, number one, we pretty much charge for everything that is due to us under the course of the lease or under the terms of the lease. So that includes not only rent, it includes late fees, it includes utilities, includes everything else.

是的。史蒂夫，很高興談論這個。我的意思是，首先，我想說的是，我無法評論其他人與壞帳相關的政策，他們儲備了什麼，他們註銷了什麼，等等。但我想您可能知道，而且我們過去也強調過，對於位於維吉尼亞海灘的客戶服務中心，首先，我們幾乎會對租賃期間或租賃條款規定的所有費用收取費用。因此，這不僅包括租金，還包括滯納金、水電費以及其他一切費用。

So there could be an issue there where we're charging just in absolute dollars more than potentially others. And two, what I would tie it to for us in terms of the pace of improvement being good, but not as good as we expected as we have seen things back up and actually increase in some cases in terms of the time to evict across portions of New York and the District of Columbia and Maryland, those particular jurisdictions.

因此可能存在一個問題，即我們的收費絕對金額可能比其他公司高。第二，我認為，就改善速度而言，情況雖然良好，但不如我們預期的那樣好，因為我們看到情況有所回升，實際上在某些情況下，就紐約、哥倫比亞特區和馬裡蘭州部分地區以及這些特定司法管轄區的驅逐時間而言，情況有所增加。

Now we might have a little bit greater footprint in terms of the suburban markets around New York, but New York City is also a challenge as well. So again, I can't speak to everyone else, but I can tell you that we charge everything we can charge for. And those are the primary reasons in those specific regions that is slightly unfavorable to our initial outlook.

現在，我們可能在紐約週邊郊區市場擁有更大的影響力，但紐約市也是一個挑戰。所以，我不能再和其他人說話了，但我可以告訴你，我們收取所有我們能收取的費用。這些是特定地區對我們的初步展望略微不利的主要原因。

Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的傑米·費爾德曼。

I guess just following-up on the chart on page 13. So can you talk about what this means for your 3Q and 4Q blends in your outlook? And then also, as we think about earning into '26 and your view on year-end rents, how much do you think this change in your outlook affects your '26 earning?

我想這只是第 13 頁圖表的後續操作。那麼，您能談談這對您展望中的 3Q 和 4Q 組合意味著什麼嗎？而且，當我們考慮 26 年的收入以及您對年終租金的看法時，您認為這種觀點的改變會對您 26 年的收入產生多大影響？

Yeah, Jamie, it's Sean. I mean, given we're sitting here in July, I don't think we're really prepared to talk about the earning for 2026 yet. But what I would say in terms of blends is that we're essentially expecting what we saw in the first half to continue through the second half of the year in terms of overall rent change performance. So that's the current expectation.

是的，傑米，我是肖恩。我的意思是，考慮到現在是 7 月份，我認為我們還沒有真正準備好談論 2026 年的收入。但就混合而言，我想說的是，就整體租金變化表現而言，我們基本上預計上半年看到的情況將持續到下半年。這就是目前的預期。

Okay. I guess I was thinking about just if you look at the math -- like just the math on the chart, like how much would that change impact a '26 earning number from what you originally thought to where you are now for the year-end number?

好的。我想我只是想透過數學計算——就像圖表上的數學計算一樣，從你最初的想法到現在的年終數字，這種變化會對 26 年的收入數字產生多大影響？

Yeah, we haven't run that at this point in time. I mean you can guestimate it, if you like, just based on lease expiration volume, but there's still a lot of leasing to do. There's a lot of things that move around in terms of mix of like-term and not like-term, et cetera. So it's just not -- I think it's just way too early to even sort of guesstimate what that's going to look like in terms of the impact.

是的，目前我們還沒有運行它。我的意思是，如果您願意，您可以僅根據租賃到期量來估計它，但仍然有很多租賃要做。就同類術語和非同類術語的混合等等而言，有很多事情在改變。所以這不是——我認為現在就估計其影響而言還為時過早。

Okay. So maybe I'll ask a better question. You're a couple of months into the Dallas acquisition, can you talk about how it's going? What's better than expected, worse than expected? Just any kind of feedback on that deal.

好的。所以也許我會問一個更好的問題。你們收購達拉斯公司已經有幾個月了，可以談談進展如何嗎？什麼比預期好，什麼比預期更差？只是對該交易的任何反饋。

Yeah. When I say at this point in time, as you know, we're only two or three months in here, but things are trending pretty much as expected as of now.

是的。當我說此時此刻時，正如你所知，我們才剛進入這個階段兩三個月，但截至目前，事情的趨勢基本上符合預期。

I'll add to that, Jamie, I think we're tracking well. We have been investing more resources in our asset management function. And so they've been -- that group has been taking a more active role in the implementation of the portfolio. And then the third piece I'd add is we're definitely seeing the scale benefits in that market and particularly in Dallas and just what it brings to the -- our larger ecosystem down there.

我要補充一點，傑米，我認為我們的進展順利。我們一直在資產管理功能上投入更多資源。因此，該小組在投資組合的實施中發揮著更積極的作用。然後我要補充的第三點是，我們確實看到了該市場（尤其是達拉斯）的規模效益，以及它為我們在那裡的更大的生態系統帶來的好處。

Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Austin Wurschmidt，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Just going back to the asking rent growth curve this year, which markets really dragged on that specifically? And I guess what do you think really you need to see? Is it just a pickup in job growth to kind of get back to that same steepening in the curve that you saw last year and sort of in the pre-COVID period you outlined?

回顧今年的租金成長曲線，哪些市場確實拖累了這項成長？我猜你認為你真正需要看什麼？這是否只是就業成長的回升，以某種方式回到您去年看到的曲線陡峭程度，以及您所概述的疫情之前時期的曲線陡峭程度？

Yeah, Austin, good question. I mean I'd say, as I mentioned earlier, first, fundamentally, in our mind, it is a job growth issue. When you look at it across the various regions, it's pretty apparent that the job growth being slower than anticipated, it's pretty broad-based. Obviously, it impacts different regions to varying degrees. I'd say at this point in time, the regions where we're expecting underperformance to be most material relative to our original outlook.

是的，奧斯汀，這個問題問得好。我的意思是，正如我之前提到的，首先，從根本上來說，在我們看來，這是一個就業成長問題。從各個地區來看，就業成長明顯低於預期，而且這種現象相當普遍。顯然，它對不同地區的影響程度不同。我想說，目前，我們預期表現不佳的地區相對於我們最初的展望而言最為重要。

When you start thinking about rent change and revenue performance are really the Mid-Atlantic and Southern California. I think we've all talked about LA. We talked about LA in the first quarter call. We talked about it at Nareit, continues to kind of be more of the same in terms of relatively stable occupancy, but not a lot of pricing power there given the weaker job environment to push rents.

當你開始考慮租金變動和收入表現時，真正重要的是中大西洋地區和南加州。我想我們都談論過洛杉磯。我們在第一季的電話會議上討論了洛杉磯的情況。我們在 Nareit 討論過這個問題，就入住率相對穩定而言，情況繼續大致相同，但由於就業環境較弱，推動租金上漲，定價權並不大。

And then more recently, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, on the Mid-Atlantic, which in the last 60 to 90 days has softened up most notably in the district and in suburban Maryland. I'd say those are the two that kind of stand out the most in terms of expectations coming down relative to our original outlook when you look across the footprint.

然後最近，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，在中大西洋地區，過去 60 到 90 天內，該地區和馬裡蘭州郊區的局勢已經明顯緩和。我想說，當你縱觀整個足跡時，這兩個方面在預期相對於我們最初的展望有所下降方面最為突出。

That's helpful. And I guess, how much is really that trajectory of market rents along with maybe the attractiveness of your cost of capital or certain aspects of your cost of capital today impacted your thoughts about sort of future starts given also kind of the backdrop. Ben, you referenced supply is at levels not seen in a decade as you look out over the next year?

這很有幫助。我想，在這樣的背景下，市場租金的走勢以及你的資本成本的吸引力或你今天資本成本的某些方面在多大程度上影響了你對未來開端的想法。本，您提到，展望未來一年，供應量將達到十年來的最高水準？

Austin, as we think about starts for the remainder of 2025, we're in a fortunate position in that we've prefunded that capital, and we prefunded it at an attractive cost of 5%. And so as we're looking out thinking about our development yields relative to both that cost of capital and where we're seeing underlying market cap rates, which are still in the high 4%, 5% range.

奧斯汀，當我們考慮 2025 年剩餘時間的開工時，我們很幸運，因為我們已經預先提供了這筆資金，而且我們以 5% 的誘人成本預先提供了資金。因此，當我們考慮我們的開發收益率相對於資本成本和我們所看到的潛在市場資本化率時，我們仍然處於 4% 到 5% 的高點範圍內。

This feels like a sufficient spread as we think about generating incremental value as it relates to development. Other aspects that you've heard Matt talk on, we are seeing some pretty meaningful buyout savings. That started in certain regions.

當我們考慮產生與開發相關的增量價值時，這感覺就像是一個足夠的傳播。正如您聽到馬特談論的其他方面，我們看到了一些非常有意義的收購節省。這始於某些地區。

I'd say it's now kind of gravitated more broadly across the country. So as we get to the stage of actually starting construction and buying out these deals, we're getting that long-term basis lower. And then this is a cohort of projects that also, given that starts are coming down when they open in a couple of years, we'll be facing less competition. So we feel good about this book of business for the remainder of 2025. As we get into 2026, cost of capital that does look different today, right?

我想說現在這種趨勢在全國範圍內更為廣泛地蔓延。因此，當我們進入實際開始建造和收購這些交易的階段時，我們的長期基礎就會降低。而且，考慮到這一批專案幾年後開工數量會下降，我們面臨的競爭也會減少。因此，我們對 2025 年剩餘時間的業務前景充滿信心。當我們進入 2026 年時，資本成本看起來確實有所不同，對嗎？

And so as we always do, focusing in on the 100 basis points to 150 basis points of spread and making sure that we remain nimble and continue to adjust based on what we're seeing in the market.

因此，正如我們一貫的做法，我們將重點關注 100 個基點到 150 個基點的利差，並確保我們保持靈活，並根據市場情況不斷進行調整。

Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的亞當·克萊默。

I think you guys referenced maybe a little bit softness in DC in recent months. Wondering if you could maybe just double-click on that. What exactly are you seeing in the market, right? I think it's sort of surprised to the upside earlier in the year, maybe surprised with it stability early in the year. What sort of changed there? Is it resident uncertainty? Is it sort of more concrete job loss? And I guess just maybe also unpack what's happening in DC.

我認為你們提到了華盛頓最近幾個月的經濟可能有些疲軟。想知道您是否可以雙擊它。您在市場上到底看到了什麼，對嗎？我認為，今年年初的上漲趨勢有點令人驚訝，或許是年初的穩定趨勢令人驚訝。那裡發生了什麼樣的變化？這是居民的不確定性嗎？這是否是一種更具體的失業？我想也許還能了解華盛頓正在發生的事。

Yeah, Adam, I'm happy to talk about that. I think it's a combination of different things in terms of what we're actually seeing on the ground.

是的，亞當，我很高興談論這個。就我們實際看到的情況而言，我認為這是多種因素的綜合作用。

As I mentioned previously, at Nareit, I think we're having a lot of conversations with existing residents at renewal time about their lease options moving forward, both what term of the lease they can sign, what happens if I happen to lose my job, what are the lease termination options, what does that cost me, what if I need to transfer to another apartment, kind of speculating a little bit on the downside from residents, which is just pushing out the commitments that they're making, just trying to preserve optionality.

正如我之前提到的，在 Nareit，我認為我們在續約時與現有居民進行了大量討論，討論他們未來的租賃選擇，包括他們可以簽署的租賃期限，如果我失業了會發生什麼，終止租賃的選擇有哪些，這會花費我多少錢，如果我需要搬到另一間公寓怎麼辦，有點猜測居民的不利之處，這只是推遲他們做出的承諾，只是試圖保留選擇權。

So we're hearing that from our centralized renewals team in terms of closing on those renewals. We've also seen an uptick in concessions, again, mainly in suburban Maryland submarkets, in the District of Columbia as I think the market has sort of prepared for what's anticipated to be maybe weaker demand.

因此，我們從集中續約團隊那裡聽說了有關完成這些續約的消息。我們也看到優惠增加，主要是在馬裡蘭州郊區的子市場和哥倫比亞特區，因為我認為市場已經為預期可能較弱的需求做好了準備。

And then obviously, job growth just hasn't been there as well. So I think you have some sort of behavioral things where people are anticipating some weakness and some potential impacts to the job market, they're sort of flowing through here and then you have some actual activity in terms of lack of jobs. So you got a sort of a confluence of a couple of different things going on there.

顯然，就業成長也沒有那麼快。所以我認為存在一些行為現象，人們預期就業市場會出現一些疲軟和潛在影響，這些現象會在這裡出現，然後就會出現一些與就業不足相關的實際活動。因此，你會發現那裡發生了幾種不同的事情。

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe just maybe more of a sort of geopolitical or public policy question. But obviously, the mayoral primary in New York, the CEQA sort of situation in California. I'm wondering, maybe just high level your thoughts on each of those. And what it might mean for you guys in terms of your exposure to each of those markets?

知道了。這很有幫助。這也許只是一種地緣政治或公共政策問題。但顯然，紐約市有市長初選，加州也有 CEQA 的情況。我想知道，也許只是您對這些問題的高層次看法。就你們對每個市場的接觸而言，這對你們意味著什麼？

Yeah. In terms of the New York situation, I'm happy to talk about that one. I mean, you never know exactly what's going to happen there. So you can't speculate on what's going to happen politically. But what I'd tell you is in terms of rent stabilized units, nothing would take effect for a while.

是的。就紐約的情況而言，我很樂意談論這一點。我的意思是，你永遠不知道那裡會發生什麼事。所以你無法猜測政治上會發生什麼事。但我想告訴你的是，就租金穩定單位而言，暫時不會有任何效果。

It's going to be '26, '27, if there was anything done. But in terms of our rent stabilized portfolio, it's about 2,100 units. So there could be potentially some impact on that population of units depending on what the actions are that are taken. As it relates to CEQA, Matt can chat about the development impact.

如果真要採取什麼行動的話，那將是 26、27 年。但就我們的租金穩定投資組合而言，大約有 2,100 個單位。因此，根據所採取的行動，可能會對單位群體產生一定的影響。就 CEQA 而言，Matt 可以談論其對發展的影響。

Yeah. So the CEQA reform is really one in a series of actions that we've seen come out of the legislature in California really over the last five, seven years, trying to encourage more housing production or reduce the barriers, which are at the local level primarily.

是的。因此，CEQA 改革實際上是我們在過去五到七年所看到的加州立法機構採取的一系列行動之一，旨在鼓勵更多的房屋建設或減少障礙，這些障礙主要集中在地方層面。

So it's important to understand, as it relates to the CEQA reform, it doesn't actually open up more sites to multifamily development. It still only applies to sites that are zoned or planned for multifamily. So you still have to go through the same approval process that you would anywhere else in terms of getting your zone and getting a site plan approval.

因此，重要的是要理解，由於它與 CEQA 改革有關，它實際上並沒有為多戶型開發開放更多場地。它仍然僅適用於劃定或計劃用於多戶住宅的場地。因此，在獲得區域和場地規劃批准方面，您仍然必須經過與其他任何地方相同的審批流程。

But what it does do is California has an extra layer on top of all that, which is you also have to show compliance with CEQA, which can cost into the seven figures and can slow the process down, you're submitting 500-page reports, sometimes to small jurisdictions that don't really have staff to review them.

但加州確實在所有這些之外還增加了一層要求，那就是你還必須證明自己符合 CEQA，這可能會花費七位數，並且可能會減慢流程，你需要提交 500 頁的報告，有時還要提交給沒有工作人員審查的小司法管轄區。

So we do think that it will help accelerate or take some of the pursuit cost risk and time out of our pipeline, development rights pipeline in California and get us in the ground sooner on some deals. But I don't know that it -- we don't think that it fundamentally changes kind of the supply outlook kind of in the medium term for California. It's still a very supply-constrained place.

因此，我們確實認為，它將有助於加速或減少我們在加州的管道、開發權管道中的一些追求成本風險和時間，並讓我們更快地完成一些交易。但我不知道——我們認為它不會從根本上改變加州中期的供應前景。這裡仍然是一個供應極其緊張的地方。

Rich Hightower, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的里奇‧海托爾 (Rich Hightower)。

Matt, looking at slide 16, and I appreciate your comments earlier about sort of the way you quote development yields prior to stabilization a little bit more conservatively. But if I look at that bucket that is kind of not as seasoned at the moment and you simply mark that to market today. I mean what does that yield uplift look like relative to the sort of low six number we see in front of us?

馬特，請看第 16 張幻燈片，我很欣賞你之前關於在穩定之前以更保守的方式引用開發收益的評論。但是，如果我看一下目前還沒有那麼成熟的產品，那麼你只需將其標記為今天的市場。我的意思是，相對於我們面前看到的低六個數字，這種收益率提升是什麼樣的？

Yeah. We really don't mark them to market until the time comes when we're getting ready to start leasing internally and then we don't externally until that's validated, as I mentioned, through the 20% leasing. So if you're talking about the 11 deals that don't start lease-up until '26 or beyond.

是的。我們實際上不會將它們按市價標記，直到我們準備開始內部租賃的時候，然後我們也不會在外部進行標記，直到透過我提到的 20% 租賃得到驗證。因此，如果您談論的是直到 26 年或以後才開始租賃的 11 筆交易。

We really haven't looked at that, but I would -- when you look at the market mix, you look at where they are. The one thing I can tell you that we do know is that costs are probably going to come in under at least from what we can tell today.

我們確實沒有考慮過這一點，但我會——當你觀察市場組合時，你會看看它們在哪裡。我可以告訴你的一件事是，我們確實知道，至少從我們今天所知的情況來看，成本可能會下降。

And you're still 1.5 years to 2 years out from opening for lease-up. So who knows what happens to market rents between now and then. I wouldn't say that their market rents in that basket is below where they were when we underwrote them.

距離開業租賃還有 1.5 到 2 年的時間。所以誰知道從現在到那時市場租金會發生什麼變化。我不會說該籃子中的市場租金低於我們承保時的水平。

When you look at the mix of the locations and where they are, I mean what we're seeing is market rent growth over the last 12 months, call it, has been flattish, but these aren't deals that started in Austin in the peak three years ago where rents are down 15%. We don't have anything like that.

當你查看這些地點的組合和它們所在的位置時，我的意思是，我們看到的是過去 12 個月的市場租金增長一直持平，但這些交易並不是三年前在奧斯汀的高峰期開始的，當時租金下降了 15%。我們沒有那樣的東西。

Right. Yeah, that kind of answers my question. Okay. And then secondly, if I look at same-store like-term effective rent change in the supplemental and I look at the other expansion regions. So this is a question for Sean, really.

正確的。是的，這回答了我的問題。好的。其次，如果我看一下補充區域中的同店同期有效租金變化，我會看看其他擴張區域。所以這其實是問肖恩的問題。

It looks like trends kind of went the opposite direction that might have been expected Q2 sequentially versus Q1. And I think that's maybe a little bit in contrast to some other, I guess, Sunbelt reporters, peers of yours in the space in terms of the trends in their blended rents for 2Q relative to Q1.

看起來趨勢似乎朝著與第一季預期相反的方向發展。我認為這可能與其他一些《陽光地帶》記者、同業在第二季度相對於第一季的混合租金趨勢方面形成鮮明對比。

So obviously, this is a small sample size relative to those other pools. But just what happened there? And obviously, it bounced back in July as well. So that's encouraging. But what happened during the 2Q specifically if you don't mind?

因此顯然，相對於其他池來說，這是一個較小的樣本量。但那裡到底發生了什麼事？顯然，7 月它也出現了反彈。這令人鼓舞。但是如果您不介意的話，第二季度具體發生了什麼？

Yeah. Happy to chat about that. I mean if you -- one of the things I would just point to as it relates to the expansion regions for us, again, small sample size, as you noted. But given the supply on the ground that is known, we've always erred on the side at least to date of keeping occupancy relatively stable and erring on the side of being slightly defensive as opposed to opportunistic on rents. So I think that partly is a reflection of strategy.

是的。很高興談論這個。我的意思是，如果您——我想指出的與我們的擴展區域相關的一件事是，樣本量再次較小，正如您所說。但考慮到已知的實際供應量，至少到目前為止，我們總是傾向於保持入住率相對穩定，並在租金方面採取略微防禦的措施，而不是投機取巧。所以我認為這在某種程度上是戰略的體現。

I can't speak to the distribution of the portfolios for the peers on that, but that's pretty much the rent change that was required to kind of get to the occupancy targets that we had for that portfolio across those different regions, and there are different supply elements in each one, but certain submarkets are still getting a fair amount of supply like the South End of Charlotte, as an example, is still getting plenty of supply and probably will for the next three, four quarters before it really abates.

我無法談論同行的投資組合分佈情況，但這基本上是達到我們在不同地區的投資組合入住率目標所需的租金變化，每個地區都有不同的供應要素，但某些子市場仍然獲得相當數量的供應，例如夏洛特南端仍然獲得充足的供應，並且在接下來的三、四個季度中可能會持續到供應真正減少。

So it's really, again, give us a small sample, it's a submarket-by-submarket assessment, and you do have pressure in some of those submarkets. And that's what you're seeing in the rent change to hold the occupancy that we targeted.

因此，這實際上是給我們一個小樣本，這是一個逐個子市場的評估，而且在其中一些子市場確實存在壓力。這就是您所看到的租金變化，以維持我們設定的入住率目標。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的 John Kim。

On the pending DC asset sales, I think, Matt, you mentioned that you started marketing that last year. I'm wondering how --

關於即將進行的 DC 資產銷售，馬特，我想你提到你去年就開始行銷了。我想知道--

Sorry to interrupt you, John. I am extremely sorry to interrupt you, your audio is not clear. Could you please use your handset, please?

很抱歉打擾你，約翰。非常抱歉打擾您，您的音訊不清楚。您可以使用一下您的手機嗎？

Is it better?

好些了嗎？

Yes, please go ahead.

是的，請繼續。

Sorry about that. On the four DC asset sales, Matt, you mentioned that you started marketing those last year. I was wondering if you could discuss how pricing has changed during that time frame.

很抱歉。關於四項 DC 資產銷售，馬特，您提到您去年就開始行銷這些資產。我想知道您是否可以討論一下這段時間內價格是如何變化的。

I don't know. DC specifically is a very difficult market to sell assets in, maybe the most difficult in the country with the way their TOPA law works there. So there's not a lot that does trade there. There were a couple of recent trades that closed in DC, I think one that closed a month or so ago that may be JBG sold.

我不知道。華盛頓特區是一個特別難以出售資產的市場，由於 TOPA 法律的實施，這裡可能是全國最難出售資產的市場。因此，在那裡進行交易的並不多。最近在華盛頓特區有幾筆交易結束，我認為其中一筆是在一個月前左右結束的，可能是 JBG 出售的。

So there have been a few, but I would tell you, in general, cap rates today in most of our markets relative to where they were when we struck that deal kind of October, November of last year, probably about the same. Some markets might be up a little bit, some might be down a little bit.

所以有一些，但我想告訴你，總體而言，今天我們大多數市場的資本化率與我們去年 10 月、11 月達成交易時的水平相比，可能大致相同。有些市場可能會略有上漲，有些市場可能會略為下跌。

But generally speaking, if you look at where the tenure is, it's kind of gone all over the place, but it's not far off of where it was then. And I would say the same about cap rates. So I don't have any reason to believe it would be significantly different today.

但總體來說，如果你看一下任期，你會發現它已經發生了一些變化，但與當時的任期相去不遠。對於資本化率，我也有同樣的看法。所以我沒有任何理由相信今天的情況會大不相同。

John, there is definitely an element as we think about our overall portfolio allocation approach, and part of that is shifting further from 70% suburban to 80% suburban. There are a select set of urban assets that have been on our target list, either -- we haven't had the right buyer on the other side.

約翰，當我們考慮我們的整體投資組合配置方法時，肯定有一個因素，其中一部分就是從 70% 的郊區進一步轉向 80% 的郊區。我們的目標名單上也有一些精選的城市資產——但我們還沒有找到合適的買家。

But more recently, we haven't been comfortable with where values were, right? And so part of what helped facilitate the transaction here was the recovery particularly in the rent roll in these DC assets as we're building up to the end of last year. And so we got the values where we then were comfortable transacting.

但最近，我們對價值觀的定位感到不太滿意，對嗎？因此，促成這筆交易的部分原因是這些 DC 資產的租金收入在去年年底有所回升。這樣我們就得到了可以放心交易的價值。

Okay. And then on the blended lease growth guidance that you took down a little bit, I think you mentioned it's going to be similar to second half of the year, will be similar to the first half of the year. But I was wondering if you could provide any more color on how the third and fourth quarter plays out for you.

好的。然後，關於您稍微下調的混合租賃成長指引，我想您提到它將與今年下半年類似，也與今年上半年類似。但我想知道您是否可以提供更多關於第三季和第四季進展的資訊。

Yeah. I mean what you would typically expect, John, is that things would trail off given normal asking rent curves. What I would tell you is that for this year, we do have softer comps relative to the fourth quarter of last year. So it may flatten out a little bit more as we get into the fourth quarter as compared to the third quarter. But don't think it will be terribly different from what you would typically see from us.

是的。我的意思是，約翰，你通常會預料到，在正常的租金曲線下，事情會逐漸減少。我想告訴你的是，就今年而言，與去年第四季相比，我們的業績確實有所疲軟。因此，與第三季相比，進入第四季後，情況可能會更加穩定。但不要認為它會與您通常看到的有很大不同。

Jeff Spector, Bank of America.

美國銀行的傑夫·斯佩克特。

First, I just want to congratulate Jason and Matt. My question is on the development homes occupied the expectation for '26 and tying that to your more muted job growth forecast. I guess, can you talk about that a little bit, the 3,000 development homes occupied for '26, has that changed?

首先，我只想祝賀傑森和馬特。我的問題是關於 26 年開發房屋佔用率的預期，並將其與較溫和的就業成長預測聯繫起來。我想，您能否稍微談一下，26 年入住的 3,000 套開發住宅有變化嗎？

Jeff, it's Matt. No, that hasn't changed. That's really a function of deliveries. And so when you look at -- we are in a down year for us for deliveries, which goes back to two, three years ago. We have started less development.

傑夫，我是馬特。不，這一點沒有改變。這實際上是交付的功能。所以，當你看到──我們的交貨量今年處於下滑期，這種情況可以追溯到兩三年前。我們已經開始較少的開發。

So we're ramping up development starts. Last year, we started a $1 billion and this year, we're starting $1.7 billion. That's going to translate into more deliveries in '26, '27, '28 than we had in '24 and '25. So we'll generally price the homes to absorb them. So it's not really a function of a macroeconomic view of what '26 is going to look like.

因此我們正在加緊開發。去年，我們啟動了 10 億美元，今年，我們將啟動 17 億美元。這意味著 26、27、28 年的交付量將比 24 和 25 年的交付量更多。因此，我們通常會對房屋進行定價以吸收這些資金。因此，這實際上並不是對 26 年宏觀經濟前景的看法。

Okay. So you're saying the more muted job growth forecast is not concerning to you on what you're planning to deliver for next year?

好的。所以您的意思是，就業成長預測較為溫和，與您明年的計畫無關？

No. I mean those are shovels in the ground. Those -- that train has moved -- is -- that train left the station a couple of years ago.

不。我的意思是那些是插在地上的鏟子。那些 — — 那列火車已經開動了 — — 那列火車幾年前就離開了車站。

And Jeff, just to reemphasize, we're also spot point in time kind of running above pro forma on those rents, right? So there's a little -- we'll see what the market rent environment looks like between now and then, but we are going into next year with some cushion on those development deals as you think about the value that's being created for shareholders.

傑夫，我再次強調一下，我們的現貨時間點租金也高於預期的水平，對嗎？因此，我們會觀察從現在到那時的市場租金環境，但考慮到為股東創造的價值，我們將在明年為這些開發交易提供一些緩衝。

Okay. And then my second, I just want to confirm on the delays in development. I know you talked about specific projects, but just to confirm, it had nothing to do with the tariffs, delays in imports or materials, please?

好的。其次，我只想確認一下開發延遲的情況。我知道您談到了具體的項目，但我只是想確認一下，這與關稅、進口延遲或材料無關，可以嗎？

Yeah. No, it's -- we haven't really seen those supply chain bottlenecks for a while now. It's still a little bit tough with electrical switch gear, but it's just occasionally, you get the normal delays about getting elevator inspections, getting final COs from some of these smaller local jurisdictions. So it's that kind of stuff.

是的。不，我們已經有一段時間沒有真正看到這些供應鏈瓶頸了。對於電氣開關設備來說，這仍然有點困難，但只是偶爾，你會在獲得電梯檢查、從一些較小的地方管轄區獲得最終 CO 方面遇到正常的延誤。就是這樣的東西。

Nick Yulico, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Nick Yulico。

I want to turn back to the development pipeline and thinking about future starts and the magnitude of what that could be beyond this year. What I'm wondering is how much your equity price is going to factor into that since you did have the forward equity at very attractive price and cost of capital. It's not exactly where you'd want it to be right now, so in terms of your stock price, I imagine.

我想回顧一下開發流程，思考未來的啟動以及今年以後可能產生的影響。我想知道的是，由於您確實以非常有吸引力的價格和資本成本擁有遠期股權，您的股權價格將在多大程度上影響這一點。我想，就您的股價而言，它現在並不完全符合您的期望。

So if your stock price kind of stays around where it is today, how much does that impact the size of a potential development start number for 2026?

那麼，如果您的股價保持在今天的水平，這對 2026 年潛在開發開工數量的影響有多大？

Sure, Nick, this is Kevin. I'll start on the funding side and others may want to chime in. So the way to think about our business model is that on a leverage-neutral basis in a typical year, we are able to start about $1.25 billion of new development through a combination of free cash flow, dispositions where we can keep the proceeds and then leveraged EBITDA growth all on a leverage-neutral basis.

當然，尼克，這是凱文。我將從資金方面開始談，其他人可能也想加入。因此，思考我們的商業模式的方式是，在典型年份的槓桿中性基礎上，我們能夠透過自由現金流、可以保留收益的處置以及槓桿 EBITDA 增長的組合，啟動約 12.5 億美元的新開發項目，所有這些都是在槓桿中性的基礎上進行的。

And so if you want to try to understand, so that's the capacity component. If you're trying to look at the spread cost or the incremental cost of that source of funds, really just a function of looking at how you want to treat our free cash flow, which is free from an accounting point of view, but obviously has an opportunity cost, reinvestment rate that you have to put in there for the company.

因此，如果您想嘗試理解，這就是容量組件。如果您試圖查看該資金來源的利差成本或增量成本，實際上只是查看您如何處理我們的自由現金流，從會計角度來看這是免費的，但顯然有機會成本，即您必須為公司投入的再投資率。

And then debt, which today depends on where we're tapping the debt markets, fresh 10-year debt for us today would be around 5.25, give or take. We did just do a debt deal 10-year basis at 5.05 a few weeks ago, and we typically achieve among the best spread pricing in our sector. So that's a relative cost of capital advantage for us. We also have been able to do debt by leaning into the term loan market where we did term loan debt at mid-4s. And we have capacity for leverage.

然後是債務，今天這取決於我們在債務市場上的投入，今天我們的 10 年期新債務大約是 5.25，左右。幾週前，我們確實以 5.05 的價格完成了一筆 10 年期債務交易，而且我們通常能實現業內最佳的利差定價。所以這對我們來說是一個相對的資本成本優勢。我們也能夠透過依賴定期貸款市場來處理債務，我們在 4 年代中期處理定期貸款債務。我們擁有利用槓桿的能力。

So the number I gave you about $1.25 billion is sort of leverage neutral. If it made sense, we could lean into that leverage capacity, and then we've got asset sales, which, as Matt and Ben have alluded to, are still tracking at sort of the high 4%, low 5% kind of range for most transactions that are being completed.

所以我給你的大約 12.5 億美元的數字是槓桿中立的。如果有意義的話，我們可以利用這種槓桿能力，然後我們就可以進行資產銷售，正如馬特和本所提到的，對於大多數正在完成的交易來說，資產銷售仍然保持在 4% 的高位、5% 的低位範圍內。

So generally speaking, we can in the current environment, fund in the low 5s, about $1.25 billion of capital to fund development and do so on an accretive basis given the opportunity set, particularly in our established markets, where supply remains constrained, and our lease-up activity remains generally quite strong.

因此，一般來說，在當前環境下，我們可以在 5 美元出頭的時間內籌集約 12.5 億美元的資金來資助開發，並根據機會以增值的方式進行，特別是在我們成熟的市場中，供應仍然受到限制，而我們的租賃活動總體上仍然很強勁。

So that's generally what we have been doing in most years every now and then, like last year, we're able to tap the equity markets. But by no means are we dependent on the equity markets in order to drive differentiated earnings growth through a significant amount of development activity.

所以，這基本上就是我們大多數年份時不時會做的事情，例如去年，我們能夠利用股票市場。但我們絕不依賴股票市場，透過大量的開發活動來推動差異化獲利成長。

All right. That's helpful, Kevin. And then second question, maybe going back to Sean, and when you're talking about with the weaker job growth versus expectations so far this year. I'm wondering if there's also -- it's not just a level -- number of jobs, but it's also a composition of jobs issues -- issue. I mean we've seen the national data, it's been more education, leisure, healthcare jobs, not professional services. Maybe you could just talk about there's also just a composition of jobs issue that you see unfolding in multifamily right now.

好的。這很有幫助，凱文。然後是第二個問題，也許回到肖恩的問題，當你談論今年迄今為止就業成長低於預期的情況時。我想知道是否也存在——這不僅僅是一個工作數量水平的問題，也是一個工作問題構成的問題。我的意思是，我們已經看到了全國數據，更多的是教育、休閒、醫療保健工作，而不是專業服務。也許您可以談談目前在多戶住宅中出現的就業組成問題。

Nick, good observation and definitely on point as being accurate there. So not only of the absolute number of jobs sort of disappointed relative to the original forecast. But the composition does not favor sort of higher-end multifamily right now, given the weaker environment for finance, professional services, technology, et cetera. So that is expected to improve as we get into the second half of the year. There's a lot of money pouring into AI and other technology sectors, et cetera.

尼克，觀察得很好，而且非常準確。因此，與最初的預測相比，不僅絕對就業人數令人失望。但考慮到金融、專業服務、科技等產業的環境較弱，目前的組成並不利於高端多戶型住宅。因此，預計進入下半年情況將會改善。大量資金湧入人工智慧和其他技術領域等等。

So there may be a better picture for that. In the second half of the year, even in the context of lower absolute levels of job growth than we originally anticipated. But year-to-date, you are correct that the mix has not been necessarily supportive either.

因此，可能存在更好的圖像來說明這一點。下半年，即使在就業成長絕對水準低於我們最初預期的情況下。但從今年迄今的情況來看，您說得對，這種組合也未必能起到支持作用。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

This is Ami on for Michael. I thought that there was a really interesting chart in the presentation on market occupancy across the Sunbelt. So my question is, do you think that we need to see occupancy trend back towards essentially the pre-COVID level in the Sunbelt in order to really see pricing power in that region?

這是 Ami 為 Michael 表演的。我認為簡報中有一張有關陽光地帶市場佔有率的非常有趣的圖表。所以我的問題是，您是否認為我們需要看到陽光地帶的入住率趨勢基本上恢復到疫情之前的水平，才能真正看到該地區的定價能力？

Yeah, Ami, this is Sean. I mean it certainly needs to move that direction. You will gain some incremental pricing power as it moves up, but you won't realize sort of full pricing power until you get back to a more normal stabilized level of occupancy. In the case of that big spread there, there's a ton of standing inventory, as Ben mentioned in his prepared remarks.

是的，阿米，這是肖恩。我的意思是它肯定需要朝那個方向發展。隨著入住率的上升，您將獲得一些增量定價權，但直到入住率恢復到更正常的穩定水平時，您才能實現完全定價權。正如本在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，在這種情況下，有大量的庫存。

And so that stuff, whether it's one month free, two months free, look and lease specials, et cetera, concessions in those communities will be pretty heavy, getting them leased up, which will certainly impact the existing stock, just not to quite the same degree. But you need those communities to lease-up and then the whole market come back to a stabilized level before you have really, I'd say, firm or strong pricing power.

因此，無論是免費一個月、免費兩個月、查看和租賃特價等，這些社區的優惠力度都會很大，從而導致租賃量增加，這肯定會對現有庫存產生影響，只是程度不會完全相同。但你需要讓這些社群的租賃量上升，然後整個市場回到穩定的水平，然後你才能真正擁有堅定或強大的定價能力。

And then what do you think is the timing to get back to that level?

那麼您認為什麼時候才能回到那個水平呢？

That is a good crystal ball question. That depends a lot on job and wage growth in these markets. So you have to kind of take a look at what your forecast is for each one of those individual markets in terms of job growth and then the level of standing inventory that's required to achieve it.

這是一個很好的水晶球問題。這在很大程度上取決於這些市場的就業和薪資成長。因此，你必須看看你對每個單獨市場的就業成長預測，以及實現這一目標所需的庫存水準。

But I think one thing to keep in mind here is if you're thinking about when they actually occupy versus when it shows up in the rent roll revenue growth, that typically takes longer than most people anticipate because you've got to get it leased up, then you've got to burn off the concessions, the leases have to expire. It's usually a couple of year process to where you see things actually start to impact revenue growth in a material way.

但我認為這裡有一點需要記住，如果你考慮的是他們何時實際入住，而不是何時體現在租金收入增長中，這通常比大多數人預期的要花更長的時間，因為你必須把它租出去，然後你必須消除優惠，租約必須到期。通常需要幾年的時間，你才能看到事情真正開始對收入成長產生實質的影響。

You'll see it show up in rent change first, but that's not really going to drive revenue growth in the short run until you roll the whole rent roll through. So just keep that in mind as you think about the sequence of the events that lead to revenue growth.

您首先會看到它體現在租金變化上，但這在短期內不會真正推動收入成長，除非您將整個租金收入轉嫁出去。因此，當您思考導致收入成長的事件順序時，請記住這一點。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

亞歷山大·戈德法布、派珀·桑德勒。

So two questions here. First, just big picture, there's the debate over return to office, how that's impacting apartments. Certainly, for urban apartments would make sense as that would be a clear benefit. As you look at your suburban portfolio, just given predominantly that's what you have, have you seen any nuance where return to office has actually been a negative in any of the locations?

這裡有兩個問題。首先，從整體來看，關於重返辦公室以及這將如何影響公寓存在爭議。當然，對於城市公寓來說這是有意義的，因為這將帶來明顯的好處。當您查看您的郊區投資組合時，考慮到您主要擁有的就是這些，您是否看到任何細微差別，即在任何一個地方，重返辦公室實際上都產生了負面影響？

Yeah, Alex, it's Sean. What I would tell you is it's not often that we see that. I'd say the one place where -- maybe two places we have seen that over the last year. It's not really recent, I would say, is during Q2, Q3 of last year, we definitely saw more people moving from parts of Central New Jersey up into Northern New Jersey to be closer to the city as an example. And that we did see some migration out of Florida back to some of the major employment markets in the Northeast.

是的，亞歷克斯，我是肖恩。我想告訴你的是，這種情況並不常見。我想說的是，在過去的一年裡，我們在一個地方——也許在兩個地方——看到了這種情況。我想說，這並不是最近發生的事情，例如在去年第二季度和第三季度，我們確實看到更多的人從新澤西州中部地區搬到新澤西州北部，以便更靠近城市。我們確實看到一些人從佛羅裡達州遷回東北部的一些主要就業市場。

Those would be the two places where I'd say we've seen that really occur. But I mean, the other thing to think about is, given our footprint, some of the suburban markets are job centers, right? So if you think about Microsoft and where they're located outside of Seattle, Google and Facebook and others around Mountain View and parts of San Jose. So it's not just an urban situation that's creating that demand. You do have these core sort of suburban job center locations that definitely have benefited from return to office.

我想說，這兩個地方確實發生了這樣的事。但我的意思是，另一件需要考慮的事情是，考慮到我們的足跡，一些郊區市場是就業中心，對嗎？因此，如果你想想微軟以及它們在西雅圖以外的位置，Google和 Facebook 以及其他公司都在山景城和聖荷西部分地區。因此，不僅僅是城市環境導致了這種需求。你確實擁有這些核心的郊區就業中心地點，這些地點肯定會從重返辦公室中受益。

Okay. And then the second question is, certainly, the risk profile of development in REIT land is a lot higher today than it has been historically. You guys have like almost $100 million if I look at your supp correctly, of development-related costs, 60% of that being overhead and 40% interest.

好的。第二個問題是，當然，如今房地產投資信託基金土地開發的風險狀況比歷史上高得多。如果我沒看錯的話，你們的供應量大約有 1 億美元，用於開發相關成本，其中 60% 為管理費用，40% 為利息。

How do you guys manage that in the sense of that capitalized impact driving deals, meaning if you wanted to scale back, it's certainly an impact on a personnel basis, it's an impact to your expense -- interest expense versus maintaining that. And I guess, to the earlier question, I think it was Nick who asked on the equity funding, sort of is $100 million of capitalized overhead and interest for development, is that an appropriate amount, just given the increased risk profile and just how do you manage that?

你們是如何從資本化影響驅動交易的角度來管理這一點的，也就是說，如果你想縮減規模，這肯定會對人員產生影響，也會對你的支出產生影響——利息支出與維持支出。我想，對於先前的問題，我認為是尼克問的股權融資，1 億美元的資本化管理費用和開發利息，考慮到增加的風險狀況，這是一個合適的數額嗎？你是如何管理的？

Hey Alex, it's Matt. I'm not sure I would agree that it's an increased risk profile. I think we've been doing it for a long time. And have a pretty impressive track record of managing those risks well.

嘿，亞歷克斯，我是馬特。我不確定我是否同意這是一個增加的風險狀況。我想我們已經這樣做了很長時間了。並且在管理這些風險方面有著相當令人印象深刻的記錄。

I would say in general. Not specific, in general.

我想說的是一般來說。不具體，一般來說。

Okay. But the first thing I'd say is all of our capitalized basis on all of our deals includes capitalized interest and includes all that capitalized overhead in our basis. So the deals pay for it, and $100 million on what do we have $2.8 billion, $2.9 billion underway right now is a pretty small percentage. And if you -- at any given point in time, that's all funded. And if you think about this year, we're starting a lot more than we're completing.

好的。但我想說的第一件事是，我們所有交易的資本化基礎都包括資本化利息，並且包括所有資本化的間接費用。因此，這些交易支付了這筆費用，而我們目前有 28 億美元、29 億美元的資金，其中 1 億美元只佔很小的比例。如果你——在任何特定的時間點，這一切都是有資金支持的。如果你回想一下今年，你會發現我們開始的事情比完成的事情多得多。

So this time next year, we're going to have more than $2.8 billion underway. If we saw a shift in the environment that we thought was durable, we have the next two or three years' worth of that overhead already funded and covered because it's in those projects that are underway and in those budgets that we prefunded and match-funded.

因此，明年這個時候，我們的投入將超過 28 億美元。如果我們看到環境發生了我們認為持久的變化，那麼我們已經為未來兩三年的管理費用提供了資金和保障，因為這些費用包含在正在進行的項目中以及我們預先提供資金和配套資金的預算中。

So if that were to be the case, we could definitely see it coming and adjust, and we have -- over the years, we cut back the overhead pretty materially in the teeth of the GFC. And even we had cut it back really in the latter part of the last cycle, where we saw that kind of the cycle is getting a bit long in the tooth. So -- but we have a pretty well-oiled machine that we can see it coming.

因此，如果情況確實如此，我們肯定能夠預見它並進行調整，而且我們已經做到了——多年來，在全球金融危機的影響下，我們大幅削減了管理費用。甚至在上一個週期的後半段，我們確實削減了它，我們發現這種週期有點太長了。所以——但我們有一台運作良好的機器，我們可以預見它的到來。

The other part of it, I would say, is a lot of that is incentive comp. So there is some of this that's self-correcting. The less business we do, the less profitable it is, the less that compensation is.

我想說，另一部分是激勵補償。因此，有些情況是可以自我修正的。我們做的生意越少，利潤越少，報酬也越少。

Okay. And again, it was a general comp -- general -- yeah.

好的。再說一次，這是一個一般性的補償——一般性補償——是的。

Yeah. Just maybe just a couple of comments, Alex, this is Kevin. I mean as you look at those costs, cost components you mentioned, first of all, they all do work their way into the cost of the project, and it pays for itself when you look at the yield relative to our initial cost of capital.

是的。也許只是幾則評論，亞歷克斯，我是凱文。我的意思是，當你查看這些成本、你提到的成本組成部分時，首先，它們都會計入項目成本，當你查看相對於我們初始資本成本的收益時，它就能收回成本。

I would separate, however, capitalized overhead from capitalized interest expense and look at them differently. The capitalized overhead costs essentially reflects the payroll cost for the groups that are working on the entire development book of business, which is the sum of the development underway, call it, roughly $3 billion-plus our development rights pipeline, which we sometimes have disclosed, but that's probably another $4 billion.

然而，我會將資本化的間接費用與資本化的利息費用分開，並以不同的方式看待它們。資本化的間接成本基本上反映了從事整個開發業務的團隊的工資成本，這是正在進行的開發的總和，大約 30 億美元，加上我們的開發權管道，我們有時會披露這一點，但這可能又是 40 億美元。

So essentially, you've got $40 million to $50 million of annual overhead costs associated with $7 worth of business. That's, call it, whatever 60, 65 basis points. I think if you were to compare to that, that cost structure to what you see in the private sector, what you would find is the -- essentially the development machine we have built over three decades at AvalonBay is remarkably efficient and adds to our profitability and helps explain why our development yields are incrementally more profitable than many private market participants are able to achieve.

因此，從本質上講，您每年需要為價值 7 美元的業務支付 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元的管理費用。也就是說，不管是 60 還是 65 個基點。我認為，如果你將這種成本結構與私營部門的成本結構進行比較，你會發現——本質上，我們在 AvalonBay 三十多年來打造的開發機器非常高效，提高了我們的盈利能力，並有助於解釋為什麼我們的開發收益比許多私人市場參與者能夠實現的收益更高。

So it's a very profitable machine we've been able to build. And if you're looking at the profitability of development, I think the way we frame it is the way I would suggest you sort of look at it, which is the incremental stabilized yield relative to our incremental funding cost.

所以，我們製造的機器非常有利可圖。如果你正在考慮開發的獲利能力，我認為我們建構它的方式就是我建議你看待它的方式，即相對於增量融資成本的增量穩定收益。

And that's the way to think about the associated all the capital costs, including capitalized interest, which is really more of an accounting charge, which is intended to reflect those costs on an accounting basis. The way we track it is to show you what the actual cash funding costs are putting that capital -- that development into service.

這就是思考所有相關資本成本的方式，包括資本化利息，這實際上更多的是一種會計費用，旨在從會計角度反映這些成本。我們追蹤它的方式是向您展示實際現金融資成本將多少資本——多少開發投入使用。

Michael Stefany, Mizuho Securities.

瑞穗證券的麥可‧史蒂芬尼 (Michael Stefany)。

In your 1Q investor presentation, I noticed you had a construction hard cost pie chart that broke down input costs. I didn't see that in your 2Q investor deck. My question is, what inputs are you seeing higher costs now and/or lower cost than when you forecast this six months ago?

在您的第一季投資者演示中，我注意到您有一個細分投入成本的建築硬成本餅圖。我在你的第二季投資人報告中沒有看到這一點。我的問題是，與六個月前預測相比，您現在看到哪些投入成本更高和/或更低？

Yeah, hi, this is Matt. I don't think it's necessarily changed. That Q1 presentation was really kind of illustrative, and it was really put out there to kind of orient investors to the fact that the hard -- the materials component of the hard cost is a relatively small percentage of the overall deal capitalization of a deal.

是的，你好，我是馬特。我認為它不一定會改變。第一季的演示確實很有說明性，它實際上是為了讓投資者認識到這樣一個事實：硬成本中的材料部分在交易的整體交易資本中所佔的比例相對較小。

So I don't -- we haven't seen that, that's necessarily changed. And again, right now, what we're seeing is that headwind of potentially higher material cost is being more than offset by the tailwind from subcontractors getting hungry for work.

所以我不認為──我們還沒有看到這種情況發生必然的改變。現在，我們看到的是，潛在的材料成本上漲帶來的不利因素被分包商對工作的渴望所帶來的順風所抵消。

And if anything, over the last quarter, that's just accelerated with you're starting to now see a reduction in for sale starts activity. And again, we're continuing to see great bid coverage and buyout savings relative to our budgets. So the trend continues to be favorable in that regard.

如果有什麼不同的話，那就是在過去的一個季度裡，這一趨勢只是加速了，你現在開始看到待售房屋活動減少。而且，我們繼續看到相對於我們的預算而言，投標覆蓋率和收購節省額很高。因此，從這方面來看，趨勢仍然很好。

Thank you. As there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference over to Ben Schall for closing comments.

謝謝。由於沒有其他問題，我現在想將會議交給 Ben Schall 進行總結演講。

Thank you. I appreciate everyone joining us today, and we look forward to connecting soon.

謝謝。我感謝今天與我們一起的各位，我們期待很快再次聯繫。

Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。