艾芙隆海灣社區公司 (AVB) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to AvalonBay Communities fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Your host for today's conference call is Matthew Grover, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

女士們、先生們，下午好，歡迎參加 AvalonBay Communities 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）今天電話會議的主持人是投資者關係高級總監馬修·格羅弗。

Mr. Grover, you may begin your conference call.

格羅佛先生，您可以開始電話會議了。

Thank you, operator, and welcome to AvalonBay Communities fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Before we begin, please note that forward-looking statements may be made during this discussion. There are a variety of risks and uncertainties associated with forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially. There is a discussion of these risks and uncertainties in yesterday afternoon's press release as well as in the company's Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filed with the SEC.

謝謝接線員，歡迎參加 AvalonBay Communities 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。在開始之前，請注意，本次討論中可能會出現前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述存在各種風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。昨天下午的新聞稿以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格中都討論了這些風險和不確定性。

As usual, the press release does include an attachment with definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures and other terms, which may be used in today's discussion. The attachment is also available on our website at investor.avalonbay.com, and we encourage you to refer to this information during the review of our operating results and financial performance.

像往常一樣，新聞稿中包含一個附件，其中列出了非GAAP財務指標和其他術語的定義和調節表，這些術語可能會在今天的討論中使用。此附件也可在我們的網站 investor.avalonbay.com 上找到，我們鼓勵您在審查我們的經營業績和財務表現時參考這些資訊。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Ben Schall, CEO and President of AvalonBay Communities for his remarks. Ben?

接下來，我將把電話交給 AvalonBay Communities 的執行長兼總裁 Ben Schall，請他來演講。本？

Thank you, Matt, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm joined today by Kevin O'Shea, our Chief Financial Officer; Sean Breslin, our Chief Operating Officer; and Matt Birenbaum, our Chief Investment Officer. Looking back on 2025, I want to begin by thanking our nearly 3,000 associates across Avalon Bay for their dedication and commitment. It was a year that required us to be nimble, disciplined and highly focused on execution.

謝謝你，馬特，大家下午好。今天與我一同出席的有：財務長凱文·奧謝；營運長肖恩·布雷斯林；以及首席投資長馬特·比倫鮑姆。展望 2025 年，首先我要感謝 Avalon Bay 近 3,000 名員工的奉獻與付出。這一年要求我們靈活應變、嚴於律己，並高度專注於執行。

Our teams rose to that challenge, consistently demonstrating our core values of integrity, continuous improvement, and a genuine spirit of caring. As summarized on slide 4, our operating results in 2025 reflect the quality of our portfolio, the proactive steps we've taken to optimize our portfolio's growth and the strength of our operating teams.

我們的團隊迎接了這項挑戰，始終展現出誠信、持續改善和真誠關懷的核心價值。如投影片 4 所示，我們 2025 年的經營績效反映了我們投資組合的品質、我們為優化投資組合成長而採取的積極措施以及我們營運團隊的實力。

Keeping existing residents satisfied and engaged was a clear priority, and that focus showed up in our results. with high levels of retention and strong renewal exempted rates serving as a balance to overall revenue growth of 2.1% during the year. In fact, our turnover rate of 41% in 2025 and was the lowest in our company's history.

維持現有住戶的滿意度和參與度是我們的首要任務，而這一重點也反映在我們的業績上。高住戶留存率和強勁的續租豁免率，與全年2.1%的整體收入成長形成了平衡。事實上，我們2025年的員工流動率為41%，這是我們公司史上最低的流動率。

My particular thanks to our operating teams for delivering a near all-time high mid-lease Net Promoter Score of 34. One of the metrics we utilize to measure customer engagement and with clear connections to retention and renewal outcomes.

我特別感謝我們的營運團隊，他們實現了租賃中期淨推薦值接近歷史最高水準的34分。這是我們用來衡量客戶參與度的指標之一，與客戶留存率和續約率有著明顯的關聯。

Our regional development, construction and operating teams were also successful last year in sourcing attractive development opportunities. using our strategic capabilities and balance sheet strength when many competitors were on the sidelines.

去年，在許多競爭對手都按兵不動的時候，我們的區域開發、建設和營運團隊憑藉自身的戰略能力和雄厚的資產負債表實力，成功尋找到了許多有吸引力的開發機會。

All in, we started $1.65 billion of projects with a projected initial stabilized yield of 6.2%. Funded with capital that we previously raised at a cost of roughly 5%, this investment activity sets the foundation for strong earnings and value creation in the years ahead. We have one of the strongest balance sheets yield of between in the industry and also pride ourselves in remaining nimble and capital sourcing and capital allocation.

總計，我們啟動了價值 16.5 億美元的項目，預計初始穩定收益率為 6.2%。這項投資活動由我們先前以約 5% 的成本籌集的資金資助，為未來幾年強勁的盈利和價值創造奠定了基礎。我們在業內擁有最強勁的資產負債表收益率之一，並且我們以保持靈活的資本籌集和資本配置能力而自豪。

Among our peer set, we are the only one to raise equity capital in size in 2024, having raised almost $900 million of equity on a forward basis at an implied initial cost of 5%. And at the end of 2025, we are one of the only to repurchase shares in size, having acquired almost $490 million at an average price of $182 per share and an implied yield north of 6%. These repurchases were funded with incremental debt and the sale of lower growth assets, which in turn improves our long-term growth profile.

在同業公司中，我們是唯一一家在 2024 年大規模籌集股權資本的公司，已按預期籌集了近 9 億美元的股權，隱含初始成本為 5%。到 2025 年底，我們將成為少數幾家大規模回購股票的公司之一，我們以每股 182 美元的平均價格回購了近 4.9 億美元的股票，隱含殖利率超過 6%。這些回購是透過增加債務和出售低成長資產來籌集資金的，這反過來又改善了我們的長期成長狀況。

In total, during 2025, we raised $2.4 billion of capital at an initial cost of 5%, positioning us to continue investing in our existing portfolio and in new development in 2026, which transitions us to this year with our key themes for 2026 summarized on slide 5.

2025 年，我們總共籌集了 24 億美元的資金，初始成本為 5%，這使我們能夠在 2026 年繼續投資於我們現有的投資組合和新的開發項目。接下來，我們將介紹今年的主要主題，這些主題總結在第 5 頁投影片中。

First, on the operating side, while we expect fundamentals to improve as the year progresses, we are forecasting modest revenue growth of 1.4%, given the current job and demand backdrop. Given the supply backdrop, particularly in our established regions, we will not need much incremental demand to facilitate stronger revenue growth than assumed in our budget.

首先，在營運方面，雖然我們預計隨著時間的推移基本面會有所改善，但鑑於目前的就業和需求背景，我們預測收入成長將較為溫和，僅為 1.4%。鑑於目前的供應狀況，尤其是在我們成熟的地區，我們不需要太多的新增需求就能實現比預算中預期的更強勁的營收成長。

And irrespective of the macro environment, we will continue to utilize our scale, particularly our investments in technology and centralized services to drive incremental growth from our existing portfolio.

無論宏觀環境如何，我們將繼續利用我們的規模優勢，特別是我們在技術和集中式服務方面的投資，來推動現有投資組合的增量成長。

We're now 60% of our way towards a target of $80 million of annual incremental NOI from our operating initiatives with an incremental $7 million in NOI slated for this year. In terms of development earnings, we will have a meaningful uplift in development NOI as projects lease up during 2026, with earnings partially offset by the funding costs from the $1.65 billion of profitable developments we started in 2025. Kevin and Matt will further detail this dynamic.

我們目前已完成營運計畫每年新增淨營業收入 8,000 萬美元目標的 60%，其中今年預計將新增營業淨收入 700 萬美元。就開發收益而言，隨著專案在 2026 年陸續出租，我們的開發淨營業收入將大幅提升，但部分收益將被我們在 2025 年啟動的 16.5 億美元盈利開發項目的融資成本所抵消。Kevin 和 Matt 將進一步詳細闡述這種動態。

In terms of new starts, we are restraining activity to $800 million, consisting of seven projects with an average development yield of between 6.5% and 7% and providing a strong spread to both underlying cap rates and our cost of funding. And finally, our Board approved an increase of our quarterly dividend to $1.78 per share, which after the 1.7% increase continues to position us with one of the more conservative payout ratios in the industry.

就新開工項目而言，我們將活動規模限制在 8 億美元，其中包括 7 個項目，平均開發收益率在 6.5% 到 7% 之間，從而為基礎資本化率和我們的融資成本提供了強勁的利差。最後，董事會批准將季度股息提高至每股 1.78 美元，在增長 1.7% 之後，我們仍然保持著業內較保守的派息率之一。

Delving a little deeper into the setup for 2026. Our outlook assumes a job growth environment that is slightly stronger than 2025, but still relatively modest. As shown on slide 6, NAV is currently forecasting 750,000 net new jobs in 2026.

讓我們更深入地探討一下 2026 年的安排。我們的展望假設就業成長環境將比 2025 年略好，但仍相對溫和。如投影片 6 所示，NAV 目前預測 2026 年將新增 75 萬個淨就業機會。

As the year progresses, enhance economic and policy certainty, the benefits from recent tax legislation and the potential for further Fed easing are among the catalysts that could translate into higher levels of business investment, improve consumer confidence and stronger hiring in our key resident industries.

隨著這一年的推進，經濟和政策確定性的增強、近期稅收立法帶來的好處以及美聯儲進一步放鬆政策的可能性等因素，都可能轉化為更高的商業投資水平、提高消費者信心以及在我們主要居民行業中更強勁的招聘。

Turning to slide 7. Demand for apartments will also be supported by rent to income ratios, which are now below 2020 levels in our established regions, given that incomes have grown faster than apartment rents over the past few years. Demand will also continue to benefit from the relative attractiveness of renting versus home ownership, which is particularly acute in our established regions, where it's over $2,000 per month more expensive to own a home, given home price levels, mortgage rates, and the increases in other cost of homeownership, such as insurance and property taxes.

翻到第7張投影片。鑑於過去幾年收入成長速度超過了公寓租金成長速度，目前我們成熟地區的租金收入比已低於 2020 年的水平，這也將支撐公寓的需求。需求也將繼續受益於租房相對於購房的吸引力，這在我們成熟的地區尤其明顯，因為考慮到房價水平、抵押貸款利率以及其他房屋所有權成本（如保險和房產稅）的增加，擁有房屋每月要多花費 2000 多美元。

And then there's the supply outlook with supply in our established regions expected at only 80 basis points of stock this year, levels we have not seen since the period coming out of the GFC. And given the challenges of getting entitlements and how lengthy the process is in our established regions, we expect this supply backdrop to serve as a tailwind for us for the foreseeable future.

此外，供應前景也令人擔憂，預計今年我們成熟地區的庫存供應量僅為 80 個基點，這是自全球金融危機爆發以來我們從未見過的水平。鑑於在我們已建立的地區獲得配額的挑戰以及流程的漫長，我們預計這種供應環境將在可預見的未來成為我們的順風。

Balancing these series of dynamics, slides 9 and 10 provide our outlook for 2026. We entered the year with a high quality portfolio concentrated in suburban coasts with historically low levels of supply, a differentiated development platform and one of the strongest balance sheets in the REIT sector. And our guidance assumes modest growth in 2026, we are well positioned to generate meaningful earnings and value creation as operating fundamentals improve and development earnings ramp into 2027.

考慮到這一系列動態因素，第 9 頁和第 10 頁提出了我們對 2026 年的展望。年初，我們擁有高品質的投資組合，主要集中在供應量歷來較低的郊區沿海地區；我們擁有差異化的開發平台，以及房地產投資信託基金行業中最強勁的資產負債表之一。我們預計 2026 年將實現溫和成長，隨著營運基本面的改善和開發收益在 2027 年逐步提升，我們將能夠創造可觀的收益和價值。

Sean will now walk through our operating outlook in more detail.

接下來，肖恩將更詳細地介紹我們的營運前景。

Ben. Moving to slide 11. The primary driver of our expected 1.4% same-store revenue growth is an increase in lease rates with incremental contributions from other rental revenue and underlying bad debt. We're expecting year-over-year revenue growth in the second half of the year to exceed what we produced in the first half with slightly better job growth and improved mix of jobs the cumulative effect of lower supply and softer comps supporting better rates and revenue growth.

本。切換到第11張投影片。我們預計同店收入成長 1.4% 的主要驅動因素是租賃費率的上漲，其他租金收入和潛在壞帳也將增加。我們預計下半年同比營收成長將超過上半年，這得益於就業成長略有改善以及就業結構優化，而供應減少和可比性疲軟的累積效應將支撐更高的利率和營收成長。

Our forecast reflects like-term effective rent change of 2% for the full year 2026, with the first half expected to average in the low 1% range and the second half improving into the mid-2s. In terms of recent leasing spreads, while Q4 performance was modestly below our expectations, it improved in January compared to both November and December.

我們的預測反映出 2026 年全年同期限有效租金變動為 2%，預計上半年平均漲幅約 1% 左右，下半年將改善至 2% 左右。就近期的租賃價差而言，雖然第四季的表現略低於我們的預期，但與 11 月和 12 月相比，1 月有所改善。

We expect continued sequential improvement in February and March and renewal offers for those months were delivered in the 4% to 4.5% range. For other rental revenue, we're continuing to drive incremental growth from our various operating initiatives, but it will be partially offset by lower income due to select legislative actions in 2025. Excluding those headwinds, other rental revenue growth would have been closer to 5% versus roughly 3.5% reflected in our outlook.

我們預計二月和三月將繼續環比改善，這兩個月的續約報價在 4% 到 4.5% 之間。至於其他租賃收入，我們將繼續透過各種營運措施來推動成長，但由於 2025 年某些立法行動導致收入下降，部分成長將被抵銷。排除這些不利因素，其他租賃收入的成長幅度將接近 5%，而不是我們預期中反映的約 3.5%。

Turning to slide 12 to address regional trends. revenue growth of roughly 2% in New York, New Jersey is primarily driven by healthy contributions from New York City and Westchester, which are projected to be in the mid- to high 3% range. Demand in Boston has been impacted by job losses in the back half of 2025.

接下來請看第 12 張投影片，探討區域趨勢。紐約州和新澤西州的收入成長約為 2%，這主要得益於紐約市和威徹斯特郡的強勁貢獻，預計這兩個地區的成長率將在 3% 到 3% 之間。2025年下半年波士頓的失業潮影響了當地的需求。

Our outlook reflects a projected year-over-year decline in occupancy of approximately 40 basis points, the majority of which is expected to occur in the first half of 2026, given our very strong occupancy level in the first half of 2022, and another 40 basis points from a projected year-over-year decline in rent relief payments. New apartment deliveries are projected to decline by about 30% to 4,000 units in the market, which will support better revenue growth when demand picks up.

我們的展望反映了預計入住率年減約 40 個基點，其中大部分預計將發生在 2026 年上半年，因為我們在 2022 年上半年的入住率非常強勁；此外，預計租金減免支付額同比下降 40 個基點也將導致入住率下降。預計新公寓交付量將下降約 30%，至 4,000 套，這將支持需求回升時更好的收入成長。

In the Mid-Atlantic, job losses in the back half of 2025 were the highest of our established regions. Our outlook reflects just under 1% revenue growth for the year with negative net effective lease rate growth during 2026, offset by a roughly 20 basis point improvement in occupancy, approximately 30 basis point reduction in underlying bad debt and 30 basis point contribution from other rental revenue growth.

在大西洋中部地區，2025 年下半年的失業人數在我們已建立的地區中最高。我們的展望反映出，2026 年全年營收成長略低於 1%，淨有效租賃率成長為負，但入住率提高約 20 個基點、基礎壞帳減少約 30 個基點以及其他租賃收入成長貢獻 30 個基點，可以抵銷這一影響。

New apartment deliveries in the market are projected to decline by roughly 60% to 5,000 units, so the outlook has turned more positive in the second half of 2026 if we see an improvement in job growth.

預計市場上的新公寓交付量將下降約 60%，至 5000 套，因此，如果我們看到就業成長有所改善，那麼 2026 年下半年的前景將更加樂觀。

Moving to the West. Northern California is projected to produce mid-3% revenue growth supported by built-in lease rate growth of 1%, relatively stable occupancy at approximately 96% and continued healthy rate growth throughout 2026. New apartment deliveries are also projected to decline by about 60% to 3,000 units in that region.

向西遷移。預計北加州將實現 3% 左右的收入成長，這得益於 1% 的內置租賃率增長、約 96% 的相對穩定的入住率以及 2026 年全年持續健康的租金增長。預計該地區的新公寓交付量也將下降約 60%，至 3000 套。

In Seattle, total employment was flat for the last six months of 2025. Our outlook reflects modest net effective rate growth throughout 2026, an approximately 20 basis point reduction in occupancy and a 40 basis point contribution from growth in other rental revenue. New unit deliveries are projected to decline by about 50% to 5,000 units, which will support improved performance as we move through the year.

西雅圖2025年下半年的總就業人數持平。我們的展望反映了 2026 年全年淨有效利率溫和成長，入住率下降約 20 個基點，以及其他租金收入成長貢獻 40 個基點。預計新車交付量將下降約 50% 至 5,000 輛，這將有助於我們在今年內實現業績提升。

And in Southern California, our outlook reflects revenue growth in the mid-1% range, driven by stable occupancy and approximately 20 basis point contribution from lower bad debt, driven primarily by L.A. and incremental effective rate growth projected primarily in Orange County and San Diego.

在南加州，我們的展望反映了營收成長在 1% 左右，這主要得益於穩定的入住率和壞帳減少帶來的約 20 個基點的貢獻，壞帳減少主要來自洛杉磯，而預計橙縣和聖地牙哥的有效利率將逐步成長。

Unit deliveries in the region are projected to decline by about 40% to 11,000 units with the most meaningful declines projected to occur in the L.A. market.

預計該地區的房屋交付量將下降約 40%，至 11,000 套，其中洛杉磯市場的降幅預計將最為顯著。

And lastly, in our expansion region, Southeast Florida will remain the strongest region with revenue growth of roughly 1.5%. Denver suffered from the combination of zero net job growth during 2025 and the delivery of approximately 16,000 new apartments. The outlook for '26 reflects a challenging environment with modest job growth and another 9,000 new units being delivered into the market. Built-in lease rate growth is minus 1%, and rents are projected to continue to decline throughout the year.

最後，在我們擴張的區域中，佛羅裡達州東南部仍將是成長最強勁的地區，收入成長率約為 1.5%。丹佛市在 2025 年面臨零淨就業成長和約 16,000 套新公寓交付的雙重困境。2026 年的前景反映了充滿挑戰的環境，就業成長乏力，另有 9,000 套新房將交付市場。內置租賃率成長率為-1%，預計全年租金將持續下降。

And then moving to the outlook for operating expense growth on slide 13, we expect same-store operating expense growth of 3.8% and 10 basis points above our organic growth rate of 2.5%. In terms of the items projected to drive growth higher in 2026, the phaseout of property tax abatement programs will add roughly 70 basis points.

接下來，在第 13 張投影片中，我們展望了營運費用成長，預計同店營運費用將成長 3.8%，比我們 2.5% 的有機成長率高出 10 個基點。就預計在 2026 年推動經濟成長的項目而言，房產稅減免計畫的逐步取消將增加約 70 個基點。

In addition, we settled a very favorable property tax appeal in Q4 2025, which established a much lower assessment and led to a meaningful refund, but is creating a 50 basis point headwind for 2026. In addition, the net impact of operating initiatives is contributing about 10 basis points as the added costs from our Avalon Connect offering is mostly offset by incremental labor efficiencies.

此外，我們在 2025 年第四季度解決了一項非常有利的房產稅上訴，確定了較低的評估值並帶來了可觀的退款，但這給 2026 年帶來了 50 個基點的不利影響。此外，營運措施的淨影響貢獻了約 10 個基點，因為我們 Avalon Connect 產品帶來的額外成本大部分都被勞動力效率的提高所抵消。

And then in terms of the quarterly cadence of OpEx growth, we're expecting heavier growth in the first half of the year before it moderates in the second half, driven primarily by utilities, including the impact of credits received in the first half of 2025 benefits costs and maintenance-related costs given our lighter spend in the first half of 2025.

至於營運支出成長的季度節奏，我們預計今年上半年成長幅度較大，下半年成長放緩，主要受公用事業成本的推動，包括 2025 年上半年獲得的信貸對成本和維護相關成本的影響，因為我們在 2025 年上半年的支出較少。

Now I'll turn it to Kevin to go deeper into our earnings outlook for the year.

現在我將把麥克風交給凱文，讓他更深入地談談我們今年的獲利前景。

Thanks, John. Turning to slide 14. We show the building blocks of our 2026 core FFO per share. For internal growth, our guidance reflects a projected $0.04 increase from same-store NOI, partially offset by a $0.03 decrease from overhead, management fees, and JV income.

謝謝你，約翰。翻到第14張投影片。我們展示了 2026 年核心每股 FFO 的組成要素。對於內部成長，我們的預期反映了同店淨營業收入預計成長 0.04 美元，但部分被管理費用、管理費和合資企業收入減少 0.03 美元所抵消。

For external growth, there are a few components. We expect a $0.10 increase in net development earnings, which I'll discuss further on the next slide as well as a $0.07 increase from our structured investment program and 2025 share repurchases, which consists of $0.02 from our SIP program and $0.05 from our recent buyback activity in 2025. These sources of external earnings growth are offset by a $0.07 decrease from refinancing activity across 2025 and 2026 and a $0.10 decrease from transaction activity.

外部成長包含幾個組成部分。我們預計淨開發收益將增加 0.10 美元，我將在下一張幻燈片中進一步討論這一點；此外，我們的結構化投資計劃和 2025 年股票回購將帶來 0.07 美元的增長，其中包括來自我們的 SIP 計劃的 0.02 美元和來自我們最近在 2025 年的回購活動的 0.05 美元。這些外部收益成長來源將被 2025 年和 2026 年再融資活動導致的 0.07 美元減少以及交易活動導致的 0.10 美元減少所抵銷。

Here, I've emphasized that our recent elevated transaction activity and associated impact on earnings reflects our having acted on some unique opportunities last year, including the timely sale of a portfolio of assets in a challenged submarket in Washington, D.C., and acquisition of a tailored portfolio of communities at a very attractive cost basis in Texas.

在此，我強調，我們近期交易活動的增加以及對收益的相應影響，反映了我們去年抓住了一些獨特的機遇，包括及時出售華盛頓特區一個面臨挑戰的子市場的資產組合，以及以極具吸引力的成本基礎收購德克薩斯州的定制社區組合。

We don't execute meaningful trade of that nature very frequently, but we do take advantage of them when opportunities arise. Of this $0.10 in earnings headwinds for transaction activity, $0.06 is timing related, driven primarily by the impact of selling assets in late 2025 and in early 2026. And the remaining $0.04 is the result of selling slightly higher cap rate assets, including in D.C., in order to better position the portfolio for stronger growth over time.

我們並不常進行這類有意義的交易，但當機會出現時，我們會加以利用。在交易活動帶來的 0.10 美元收益不利因素中，0.06 美元與時間有關，主要受 2025 年末和 2026 年初出售資產的影響。剩餘的 0.04 美元是由於出售了資本化率略高的資產（包括位於華盛頓特區的資產）而獲得的，目的是使投資組合更好地適應未來的成長。

Turning to slide 15. Development is expected to contribute $0.10 or 90 basis points to earnings growth this year. This is lower than is typical for us and is driven by two factors. First, due to lower completion and ramping starts last year, the proportion of communities generating development NOI as a percentage of the total development underway is lower than normal. This is reflected in $0.33 of expected earnings growth from our 2026 development communities as well as a handful of other communities that stabilized in 2025 and are now in our other stabilized bucket.

翻到第15張投影片。預計今年開發案將為獲利成長貢獻 0.10 美元或 90 個基點。這比我們通常的水平要低，主要受兩個因素影響。首先，由於去年竣工和啟動的工程數量較少，產生開發淨營業收入的社區佔正在進行開發的總開發項目的比例低於正常水平。這體現在我們 2026 年開發社區的預期收益成長 0.33 美元，以及 2025 年趨於穩定的其他幾個社區，這些社區現在屬於我們另一個穩定的類別。

And it compares to incremental funding costs of $0.33, attributable to the 26 communities that are under construction today as shown on Attachment 9 of our earnings release, any communities that are expected to start construction in 2026.

相較之下，目前在建的 26 個社區（如我們的收益報告附件 9 所示）以及預計在 2026 年開始建造的任何社區，其新增融資成本為 0.33 美元。

The second factor relates to a projected $340 million increase in construction in progress or CIP, for 2025 to 2026. This temporarily dampened earnings growth in 2026 because our 5% initial funding cost exceeds our required capitalized interest rate under GAAP during construction, which is currently 3.7%. Therefore, we project a capitalized interest benefit of only $0.10 this year, which is a few cents lower than if our capitalized interest rate equaled our initial funding cost of 5%.

第二個因素與預計 2025 年至 2026 年在建工程 (CIP) 增加 3.4 億美元有關。這暫時抑制了 2026 年的獲利成長，因為我們 5% 的初始融資成本超過了我們根據 GAAP 在建設期間要求的資本化利率（目前為 3.7%）。因此，我們預計今年的資本化利息收益僅為 0.10 美元，比資本化利率等於初始融資成本 5% 的情況低幾美分。

Nevertheless, our decision to lean into accretive development does set the stage for further outsized earnings growth in 2027 and beyond as current development projects are completed and stabilized at yields in excess of 6% and accretion steps up, which Matt will discuss more fully.

儘管如此，我們決定加大對增值型開發投入，這為 2027 年及以後的收益大幅增長奠定了基礎，因為目前的開發項目已經完成，收益率穩定在 6% 以上，增值也隨之加大，Matt 將對此進行更全面的討論。

Exactly. Thanks, Kevin. As shown in the chart on the left on slide 16, we started $2.7 billion in new development over the past two years and yields 110 to 130 basis points higher and the cost of capital source to fund those new projects, and we expect an even wider spread on the $800 million in starts we're planning for 2026.

確切地。謝謝你，凱文。如第 16 頁左側圖表所示，過去兩年我們啟動了 27 億美元的新開發項目，收益率比這些新項目的資金來源成本高出 110 至 130 個基點，我們預計 2026 年計劃啟動的 8 億美元項目將帶來更大的利差。

Because our development activity can vary substantially from year-to-year in response to market opportunities and capital market conditions, the flow-through of this activity to earnings can also vary in any given year. The majority of the earnings benefit is realized once all those new apartments are occupied.

由於我們的研發活動會根據市場機會和資本市場狀況逐年發生顯著變化，因此，該活動對收益的影響在任何一年也會有所不同。大部分收益要等到所有新建公寓都入住後才能實現。

And as shown in the middle chart on this slide, we are still early in this ramp-up in 2026 with occupancies growing from 1,812 homes in '25 to roughly 3,175 homes this year. We expect that to grow further still to over 4,100 occupancies in 2027, as you can see on the chart on the right, this translates into $47 million of development NOI this year and an incremental $75 million of additional NOI next year.

正如這張幻燈片中間的圖表所示，2026 年我們仍處於快速增長的早期階段，入住率從 2025 年的 1812 套住房增長到今年的大約 3175 套住房。我們預計到 2027 年入住率將進一步成長至 4,100 多戶，正如您在右側圖表中看到的那樣，這將轉化為今年 4,700 萬美元的開發淨營業收入，以及明年 7,500 萬美元的額外淨營業收入。

Slide 17 takes a closer look at the expected 2026 lease-up activity, over 90% of which is coming from 11 communities including eight where we have already achieved first occupancy and have active leasing underway and another three set to open in Q1 or Q2. All of these assets are in suburban submarkets and more than half of the occupancies are coming from the New York, New Jersey region and South Florida, two of our most stable regions with above-average expected same-store performance for the year.

第 17 張投影片更詳細地介紹了預計 2026 年的租賃活動，其中 90% 以上的租賃活動來自 11 個社區，包括 8 個我們已經實現首次入住並正在進行積極租賃的社區，以及另外 3 個計劃在第一季度或第二季度開放的社區。所有這些資產都位於郊區次級市場，超過一半的入住率來自紐約、新澤西地區和南佛羅裡達，這兩個地區是我們最穩定的地區，預計今年的同店銷售業績將高於平均水平。

In addition to the earnings boost we expect from these communities in '26 and '27, we're excited about their long-term positioning for future cash flow growth as brand-new assets built and designed by us to respond to future demographic trends. We are including more larger format homes designed for working from home in our unit mix, including eight communities with the VTR component and many feature excellent infill locations walkable to nearby retail.

除了我們預期這些社區在 2026 年和 2027 年將帶來的收益增長外，我們還對它們未來的現金流增長的長期定位感到興奮，因為這些全新的資產是我們為應對未來的人口趨勢而建造和設計的。我們在單元組合中增加了更多專為在家辦公而設計的大戶型住宅，其中包括八個帶有 VTR 組件的社區，其中許多社區地理位置優越，步行即可到達附近的零售店。

And with that, we're ready to open up the line for questions.

接下來，我們將開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Eric Wolfe, Citi.

Eric Wolfe，花旗銀行。

You mentioned that renewals are going out in the 4% to 4.5% range. I guess, first, could you talk about whether you expect to achieve 4% to 4.5% on these renewals or the take rate will be lower? And then second, what changed between now and the 2.5% you achieved on renewals in January? It just feels like there's been a bit of a jump over the last month or two. I'm just wondering what caused that.

您提到續約費用在 4% 到 4.5% 之間。首先，您能否談談您預計這些續約的成交率是 4% 到 4.5%，還是會更低？其次，從現在到一月續約率達到 2.5% 之間，發生了哪些變化？感覺最近一兩個月成長幅度有點大。我只是想知道是什麼原因造成的。

Yes, Eric, I want to talk a little bit about how we see the rent change forecast playing out throughout the year. But to your specific question, what I indicated in my prepared remarks is that the renewal offers for February and March were out in the 4% to 4.5% range. As you probably know, they always settle it's something less than that, the historical range the settlement is probably 100 to 125 basis points of dilution or something like that, depending on the market environment. But that's what's happening with the renewal offers and where you think they might settle.

是的，艾瑞克，我想談談我們對全年租金變化預測的看法。但對於你提出的具體問題，我在準備好的演講稿中指出，二月和三月的續約報價在 4% 到 4.5% 的範圍內。您可能知道，他們最終達成的協議金額總是低於這個數額，根據市場環境的不同，歷史結算金額可能在稀釋 100 到 125 個基點左右。但這就是續約報價的現狀，也是你認為最終可能達成的協議。

In terms of the overall forecast, just to provide some commentary for '26, we're expecting it to come in around 2%, which is only about 30 basis points above what we actually realized in 2025. Our assumption is that the renewals will basically average about the same as 2025 sort of in the mid-3% range, and we're expecting move-ins to improve by roughly 70 to 80 basis points in 2026 as compared to 2025 so that it comes in instead of being modestly negative, it comes in around flat for the year.

就整體預測而言，為了對 2026 年的情況做一些評論，我們預計成長率將在 2% 左右，這僅比我們在 2025 年實際實現的成長率高出約 30 個基點。我們假設續約率將與 2025 年基本持平，大約在 3% 左右，並且我們預計 2026 年的入住率將比 2025 年提高約 70 至 80 個基點，因此全年不會出現小幅負增長，而是基本持平。

And for context, and Ben referred to this as well, we are expecting a relatively similar economic environment as 25%, but about 40% less supply, so we are forecasting sequential improvement quarterly until we get to Q4. So that kind of gives you the broad picture of the full year. And then as it relates to the first half versus the second half outlook, we are expecting the first half performance to be pretty similar to what we experienced in the second half of 2025, which was roughly basically 1.2%, we're basically about the same level as we come into the first half of 2026.

另外，正如 Ben 也提到的，我們預計經濟環境與 25% 的情況相對相似，但供應量將減少約 40%，因此我們預測，在進入第四季度之前，每個季度都會有所改善。這樣就能大致了解全年的狀況了。至於上半年和下半年的展望，我們預計上半年的表現將與 2025 年下半年的表現非常相似，當時的成長率約為 1.2%，而我們進入 2026 年上半年時，成長率也基本與此持平。

And then in terms of the expected improvement in the second half versus the first half, it's really driven by four factors. First is as Ben noted, a slight uptick in job growth, which is expected to occur in the second half of the year and a slightly better mix of jobs, but also importantly, sort of the cumulative effect of 40% less supply and the absorption of some of the standing inventory from the end of 2025 carrying through the first half of '26.

至於下半場相比上半場的預期進步，主要由以下四個因素驅動。首先，正如本所指出的，就業成長略有上升，預計這將在今年下半年發生，就業結構也會略有改善；但更重要的是，供應減少 40% 的累積效應，以及從 2025 年底到 2026 年上半年部分現有庫存的吸收。

And then lastly, it's just some softer comps as we get into the back half of 2026, given what we actually achieved in the back half of 2025. So to provide a little bit of an overview as to how we're thinking about it overall. And hopefully, that's helpful in terms of the trends we're expecting.

最後，考慮到我們在 2025 年下半年的成就，到 2026 年下半年，競爭將會相對緩和一些。因此，我在此簡要概述一下我們整體上的想法。希望這能對我們預期的發展趨勢有所幫助。

Yes, that's very helpful. I guess the question really is sort of how predictable do you think that sort of ramp is because it's just a bigger ramp right in the first half to the second half. And so we've seen supply, I think, linger a bit longer than people expected, especially in some of these Sunbelt markets, which you're not in. But I guess the question is how predictable do you think the sort of this impact from supply is going into the second half of the year? And how much the supply or the impact of supply really drop off in the back half?

是的，這很有幫助。我想真正的問題是，你認為這種斜坡有多大的可預測性，因為從前半段到後半段的斜坡比較大。因此，我認為我們看到供應情況比人們預期的要持續更長時間，尤其是在一些陽光地帶市場，而你並不在這些市場。但我想問的是，您認為這種供應方面的影響在下半年有多大的可預測性？那麼，後半程的供應量或供應的影響究竟下降了多少？

Yes. No, I mean that's what our forecast reflects in part why we're expecting the first half to be a little bit weaker, is some of that lingering spending inventory in some markets that's carried over from the back half of '25 through the first half of '26, even though deliveries will be down meaningfully in both the first half and the second half, there is some standing inventory to absorb. And once that occurs, then there are just much fewer options for people to choose from.

是的。不，我的意思是，我們的預測部分反映了這一點，這也是我們預計上半年會略顯疲軟的原因，一些市場存在一些從 2025 年下半年延續到 2026 年上半年的消費庫存，儘管上下半年的交付量都會大幅下降，但仍有一些庫存需要消化。一旦這種情況發生，人們可選擇的餘地就會大大減少。

And as I noted, particularly on the move-in side, which is where we expect 60, 70 basis points of improvement relative to 2025, that's where you're going to see it the most. We expect renewals to be relatively flat, if you think about it for '26 relative to '25So I think that's -- in terms of our confidence in that, that's what our models reflect at this point in time. And certainly, we'll be able to update you as we go through the year. But that's part of the reason why we -- part of the reason why we look at it that way in terms of first half versus second half.

正如我所指出的，尤其是在入住率方面，我們預計到 2025 年將有 60 到 70 個基點的改善，這方面的變化最為顯著。我們預期續約情況將相對平穩，如果你考慮到 2026 年與 2025 年的情況。所以我認為——就我們對此的信心而言，這就是我們目前的模型所反映的情況。當然，我們會在這一年中隨時向您報告最新情況。但這正是我們——也是我們這樣看待上半場與下半場的原因之一。

And Eric, on the demand side, just to give you some more color there. We're not assuming a huge pickup in terms of job growth this year. If you look at the name figures, ended the year at roughly 20,000 jobs per month. That is a similar place as we come into 2026 and then builds into the range of 70,000 to 75,000 jobs as we get into the back half of 2026.

還有艾瑞克，關於需求方面，我再補充一些資訊。我們預計今年的就業成長不會大幅回升。若查看相關數據，年底時每月新增就業人數約 2 萬個。到 2026 年，情況大致相同，到 2026 年下半年，就業將增加到 7 萬至 7.5 萬個。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

Steve Sakwa，Evercore ISI。

Look, I know in '25, you guys had to take a couple of bites at the guidance and make some reduction. So as you thought about setting guidance for this year, maybe what lessons did you learn in '25 that you carried over this year? And when you kind of look at Page 14, I guess, is the building blocks. Are there some of those figures that you have more confidence in their upside? And I guess, which ones are you a little bit more worried about having downside risk?

我知道在 2025 年，你們不得不對指導意見做出一些讓步，並進行一些削減。那麼，在考慮制定今年的發展方向時，您在 2025 年學到了哪些經驗教訓並運用到今年呢？當你翻到第 14 頁時，你會發現，那裡講解的是基本要素。你對其中一些數據的上漲潛力更有信心嗎？那麼，您覺得哪些股票或服務有更大的下行風險呢？

Sure, Steve. I'll start on the kind of guidance approach question and then others can weigh in on the upside, downside scenarios.

當然可以，史蒂夫。我先從指導方針類型這個問題開始，然後其他人可以就利好和利空情況發表意見。

Our approach to guidance remains as it has been -- we go through a very detailed process, particularly at the beginning of each year, and it's also as part of our midyear reforecast. And we're looking at the best data that we have available at that point in time. we naturally think through upside scenarios, downside scenarios, but we use all that to come up with our best estimate looking forward out over the next 12 months.

我們的指導方針與以往一樣——我們會進行非常詳細的流程，尤其是在每年年初，而且這也是我們年中重新預測的一部分。我們會參考當時可獲得的最佳數據。我們自然會考慮各種可能的情況，包括上漲和下跌，但我們會綜合所有這些因素，對未來12個月做出最佳預測。

And then importantly, provide that transparency to investors so that you understand what's underneath those assumptions, and we can discuss those as the year unfolds.

更重要的是，要向投資者提供這種透明度，以便他們了解這些假設背後的原因，我們可以在這一年中逐步討論這些問題。

Yes. In terms of looking at slide 14, the development earnings, I put that very much in the concrete category. These are -- and Matt talked about this in his commentary. -- the earnings coming online this year. Those are projects that are under construction.

是的。至於第 14 張投影片，即發展收益，我認為它完全屬於特定類別。這些是——馬特在他的評論中也談到了這一點——今年即將上線的收益。這些都是正在建設中的項目。

A lot of them are already in their initial phases of lease-up. We've got pretty good clarity about how that income will roll in over time. we've prefunded that activity. So I put that in the category of fairly baked in earnings to attribute to investors as the year progresses.

其中許多項目已經進入租賃初期階段。我們已經很清楚這筆收入將如何隨時間推移而到達。我們已經為這項活動預先籌集了資金。因此，我將其歸類為相當穩定的收益，並將在年內逐步分配給投資者。

Steve, the only thing I would add is, for the most part, as it relates to sort of the core same-store portfolio. I think the main question is, you have the demand question -- and depending on how you look at the outlook from an economic standpoint, the upside, the downside is really tied to demand there. And so we saw job growth accelerate more quickly, with the reductions in supply, like I mentioned, in the Mid-Atlantic with supply come down 60%, that could give you a little bit of a springboard to better performance sooner than the second half. if that were the case, then you start to see more of that benefit accrue into 2026 as opposed to 2027.

史蒂夫，我唯一要補充的是，在大多數情況下，這與核心同店產品組合有關。我認為主要問題在於需求問題──而從經濟角度來看，前景的好壞其實都與需求息息相關。因此，我們看到就業成長加速，正如我之前提到的，在大西洋中部地區，供應量下降了60%，這或許能讓你比下半年更快看到更好的業績。如果是這樣，那麼這種利好會在2026年而不是2027年開始顯現。

And obviously, the downside scenarios where we saw a significant weakening in the environment from where we are today, then that would be sort of your downside case.

顯然，如果環境從今天的情況大幅惡化，那麼這就是所謂的下行情景。

Okay. And then I guess a follow-up on the development, maybe just for Matt. I know you guys kind of cut the starts number in half this year. and you sort of raised the hurdle rate a bit. Is the reduction more a function of enough deals don't pencil at that 6.5% to 7%?

好的。然後我想再跟進一下進展情況，也許只是給馬特的。我知道你們今年把參賽場次減少了一半，而且也稍微提高了參賽門檻。降幅是否更取決於有多少交易的收益率達不到 6.5% 到 7%？

Or was it more of a conscious decision to just say given the choppy environment, we just don't want to start $1.5 billion of projects even if they make the hurdle, just given the uncertainty in the environment today here.

或者，這更多的是一種有意識的決定，即考慮到當前動盪的環境，即使項目能夠通過審批，我們也不想啟動價值 15 億美元的項目，因為目前環境存在不確定性。

Steve, it's Matt. It's a little bit of both. I mean we look at it very much -- it starts bottom up, where the deals, what's going on in our pipeline and kind of how big is that opportunity set.

史蒂夫，我是馬特。兩者兼而有之。我的意思是，我們非常注重自下而上地看待這個問題，從交易地點、我們的業務流程以及機會規模等方面著手。

And then there is a top-down piece as well, which is that aligned with kind of our funding capacity and cost. So usually, particularly now that we have this DFP, the developer funding program, we can see our Avalon base starts coming a year or two in advance or three years -- four years in advance in some cases because of the entitlement process. But then -- we also have the ability to fund other developers through our developer funding program. Those deals come more quickly.

此外，還有自上而下的因素，這與我們的資金能力和成本相符。所以通常情況下，特別是現在我們有了 DFP（開發商資助計劃），我們可以看到我們的 Avalon 基地提前一兩年甚至三年、四年就開始建設，因為審批流程需要時間。但是—我們也可以透過我們的開發者資助計劃為其他開發者提供資金。這些交易達成得更快。

And so the last couple of years, our starch list has included both deals we know about in our pipeline and kind of an allowance for quick start business, which could be DFP or it could be in this environment, deals that other developers just can't get capitalized and have given up on and are now willing to sell, sometimes selling the land at a loss. We've done a few of those deals, too. So a lot of it is just -- we're going to the year expecting less of that quick start business to underwrite.

因此，在過去的幾年裡，我們的核心項目清單既包括我們所知道的正在籌備中的項目，也包括一些可以快速啟動的業務，這些業務可能是直接融資項目，也可能是其他開發商無法獲得資金而放棄的項目，他們現在願意出售這些項目，有時甚至虧本出售土地。我們也做過一些類似的交易。所以很多時候都是這樣——我們預計今年需要承保的快速啟動業務會減少。

And then some of it is -- yes, I mean, we are looking at demanding higher yields, and we are seeing that. So some of that's in the geographic mix as well. The starts we plan this year are much more heavily weighted to our established East Coast regions. Last year, it was maybe 40% West Coast, 40% expansion, 20% established. This year, it's like 80% established is and a little bit of expansion and really nothing on the West Coast.

然後，其中一些情況是——是的，我的意思是，我們正在尋求更高的收益率，而且我們也看到了這一點。所以，其中一部分原因也跟地理因素有關。我們今年的開賽計畫將更專注於我們已有的東海岸地區。去年，西岸的業務可能佔 40%，擴張業務佔 40%，成熟業務佔 20%。今年，大約 80% 的業務已經穩定，只有少量擴張，而西海岸方面幾乎沒有任何進展。

So -- and those regions tend to have higher yields.

所以——而且這些地區的產量往往更高。

John Pawlowski, Green Street.

約翰‧帕夫洛夫斯基，格林街。

Matt, I want to continue that conversation. The $800 million in starts this year, how much have you had to lower pro forma rents just given the softness in market rents over the last 6 to 12 months, even in those established East Coast regions?

馬特，我想繼續這個話題。今年開工投資 8 億美元，鑑於過去 6 到 12 個月市場租金疲軟，即使在東海岸那些成熟的地區，你們也不得不將預估租金降低多少？

Yes. It's interesting, John. There are a couple of deals. Some are pretty much even -- what we've seen in a couple of cases, actually, we just started a deal in Q4 in Northern New Jersey ConsoParsippany. -- and that deal is a high 6s yield -- and when we underwrote it kind of in due diligence 1.5 years ago, two years ago, the rents were higher and the costs were higher.

是的。很有意思，約翰。有幾個優惠活動。有些專案收益基本上持平——實際上，我們在幾個案例中都看到了這種情況，例如我們第四季度在北新澤西州的ConsoParsippany啟動了一項交易。 ——這項交易的收益率高達6%——而我們在1.5年前、2年前進行盡職調查時，租金和成本都更高。

And what we saw is when we went to our final , what we call Class II budgets, the hard cost came in and the rents are down a little bit. And those two more or less washed out so that the yield kind of stayed the same.

我們看到，當我們進入最終的，也就是我們所說的第二類預算時，硬性成本出現了，而租金卻略有下降。這兩個因素的影響基本上被抵消了，所以產量基本上保持不變。

So that's what we're seeing for the most part with that particular mix of business is a little bit less rent and a little bit less cost. And in some cases, the cost reduction is more than the NOI reduction and, in some cases, not.

所以，我們看到，在這種特定的業務組合中，租金和成本大多會降低一些。在某些情況下，成本降低幅度大於營業淨收入降低幅度；而在某些情況下，成本降低幅度則小於營業淨收入降低幅度。

Okay. Just what I'm getting at is I'm very surprised about how high the yields are. And I know you guys are very good at what you do. But if there's high 7% yields versus, I don't know, maybe low to mid-5 cap rates in these markets. If that's true economics, we should expect to see development start to reaccelerate across your markets.

好的。我真正想說的是，我對如此高的產量感到非常驚訝。我知道你們在自己的領域非常出色。但如果殖利率高達 7%，而資本化率卻只有 5% 左右，我不知道。如果這是真正的經濟學原理，我們應該會看到你們市場的發展開始重新加速。

So is there anything idiosyncratic in this $800 million pipeline that's not representative of market yields? Or do you think that it's a representative sample size?

那麼，這筆價值 8 億美元的專案儲備是否存在任何不具市場代表性的特殊之處？或者您認為這是一個代表性的樣本量嗎？

It is more select. I mean, it's hard -- there aren't as many deals that we're finding that can achieve that spread, but I'll say we're finding more than our share and it's been our view for a while that we can get an expanding share of a shrinking pie here. A lot of these genre deals we've been working on in the entitlement process for years. And there are kind of unique factors there may be an affordable component. There may be a pilot, not a New York City pilot, but a long-term pilot.

它更具選擇性。我的意思是，這很難——我們找到的能夠實現這種價差的交易並不多，但我可以說我們找到的已經超過了我們應得的份額，而且我們一直認為，我們可以在這裡從不斷縮小的蛋糕中分得更大的份額。多年來，我們一直在版權審批過程中努力爭取許多這類類型的版權交易。而且還有一些特殊因素，可能有價格實惠的零件。可能會有一個試點項目，雖然不是紐約市的試點項目，但會是一個長期試點項目。

There may be other things there that are difficult for folks that haven't been in this business and in these markets on the ground for years and years to kind of reconstruct.

可能還有其他一些事情，對於那些沒有在這個行業和這些市場待過多年的人來說，很難重新建構。

So I do think we're seeing a little more supply in some of these more supply-constrained, East Coast jurisdictions, but we're getting a bigger share of it. And our volume is dropping, too. So I'm not overly worried that we're going to suddenly see a flood of supply that a lot of people can recreate it.

所以我認為，在一些供應較為緊張的東海岸地區，我們看到供應量增加，但我們獲得的份額也更大。我們的銷量也在下降。所以我並不太擔心我們會突然看到大量供應湧入，讓很多人都能仿製出來。

And John, just for the broader listening audience out there, I just want to correct, we're targeting for those $800 million of projects, yields in the 6.5% to 7% arena relative to cap rates in and around sort of circa 5% today.

約翰，為了讓更多聽眾了解情況，我糾正一下，我們針對這 8 億美元項目的目標收益率在 6.5% 到 7% 之間，而目前的資本化率在 5% 左右。

Okay. Last question for me. Should we expect additional pressure from property tax abatements in 2027 or any other pressure from utility costs and Avalon Connect? Or is 2026 the peak of the pressures, if you will.

好的。最後一個問題。我們是否應該預期 2027 年房產稅減免會帶來額外的壓力，或者公用事業成本和 Avalon Connect 會帶來其他壓力？或者說，2026 年是壓力達到頂峰的一年。

Yes, John, this is Sean. In terms of the abatements, yes, we do expect some level of headwind from abatements to continue, but it does move around from year to year, but we do expect that for the next few years here in terms of that element.

是的，約翰，這是肖恩。就減排而言，是的，我們預計減排帶來的一些不利因素還會持續，但這種情況每年都會有所變化，不過就這方面而言，我們預計未來幾年都會如此。

In terms of Avalon Connect, there's two components there. This bulk Internet piece, there's a smart access piece. The bulk Internet piece were pretty much stabilized. There's a little bit of lingering cost there for 2026, and that pretty much phases out. The smart access component, which is far less impactful, we'll continue for probably another 18 to 24 months, but it's relatively modest as compared to the bulk side of it.

Avalon Connect 由兩個元件構成。這個大批量網路存取部分，有一個智慧存取部分。互聯網的大部分業務基本上已經穩定下來了。2026 年還有一些遺留成本，但這些成本基本上會逐步消除。智慧型存取組件的影響要小得多，我們可能會再持續 18 到 24 個月，但與主體部分相比，它的規模相對較小。

Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Austin Wurschmidt，KeyBanc 資本市場。

When you guys think about the remaining gains capacity, are share buybacks or paired trades from the established regions into your expansion regions more attractive today? And does the pullback in development funding needs provide any additional capacity for you for share buybacks without either levering up or evaluating paying a special dividend?

當你們考慮剩餘的收益空間時，現在哪種方式更具吸引力：是從成熟地區回購股票，還是將股票從成熟地區轉移到擴張地區？發展資金需求的減少是否為貴公司提供了額外的資金進行股票回購，而無需增加槓桿或考慮支付特別股息？

Austin, this is Kevin. I'll start. Others may want to jump in here. What I'd say is this year, our capital plan contemplates only modestly sourcing capital from disposition activity. So that does leave us with a healthy level of asset sales capacity to fund incremental investment activity, whether it's for a share buyback or incremental development activity before we have to worry about a distribution obligation.

奧斯汀，這位是凱文。我先來。其他人可能也想加入討論。我想說的是，今年我們的資本計畫只考慮適度地從資產處置活動中獲取資金。因此，我們仍有充足的資產出售能力來為新增投資活動提供資金，無論是用於股票回購還是新增開發活動，而無需擔心分配義務。

So we do have capacity to sell a very healthy level of additional assets and retain the capital for future investment purposes.

因此，我們有能力出售相當數量的額外資產，並將資金保留用於未來的投資目的。

I'll add it, Kevin, just to clarify, in our baseline budget, we're not assuming any share buyback activity. We do still very much see it on the menu of potential opportunities for this year. And to your question and comment, the potential opportunity of selling slower growth, higher CapEx assets out of our existing portfolio and then redeploying that capital into share buybacks in today's range in sort of the low 6s, one, not only accretive, but also helps position the go-forward portfolio for stronger growth.

凱文，我補充一下，為了澄清一下，在我們的基準預算中，我們沒有假設任何股票回購活動。我們仍然認為這是今年潛在的機會之一。至於您的問題和評論，出售我們現有投資組合中增長較慢、資本支出較高的資產，然後將這些資金重新部署到股票回購中，目前股價在 6 美元左右，這不僅能增加收益，還有助於為未來的投資組合實現更強勁的增長做好準備。

And then can you share what the cap rate was on the asset sale in San Francisco in January and then provide an update. I think you had another $235 million or so of pending sales that were previously under agreement as of late last year.

然後，您能否分享一下1月在舊金山進行的資產出售的資本化率，並提供最新進展？我認為截至去年年底，你們還有大約 2.35 億美元的待售訂單，這些訂單先前已經達成協議。

Yes. Austin, it's Matt. So the asset we sold in San Francisco last week, actually, that's a low fares cap. There's a bigger spread there between the cap rate and the yield given that we've done that for a while. So there's a prop 13 overhang there.

是的。奧斯汀，我是馬特。所以，我們上週在舊金山出售的資產，其實就是一個低價票價上限。鑑於我們已經這樣做了有一段時間了，資本化率和收益率之間的差距會更大。所以那裡有13號提案的懸挑部分。

But that's also an asset that had some pretty heavy CapEx needs in front of it.

但這項資產也面臨相當大的資本支出需求。

So you kind of have to factor all that into kind of what I'd say is the economic cap rate, so to speak, kind of in the -- the one -- we have a couple of others either in the market are working that are -- some are a little bit higher than that in terms of the economic cap rates, some are a little bit lower. We'll see where they clear the market.

所以你必須把所有這些因素都考慮進去，也就是我所說的經濟資本化率，或者說，在——我們還有幾個其他的項目正在市場上運作——有些的經濟資本化率比這個高一些，有些則低一些。我們拭目以待，看看他們會在哪裡清倉。

We have at least one more that we expect to close here this month, it's probably around the same kind of low 5s cap rate, a little bit less of a spread there. So the yield is probably not as high as that sunset tower.

我們預計本月至少還有一筆交易會完成，資本化率可能也差不多在 5% 左右，價差會比較小。所以它的收益率可能不如那座日落塔那麼高。

And then we have a couple of others in the market working where we'll see there. It really is -- varies a lot based on what market you're selling into and I will say this, everything we have either planned for sale this year or currently in the market are all older high-rise assets and most of them are in early jurisdictions. So they are very much aligned with our longer-term portfolio goals.

此外，我們還有幾家公司在市場上開展業務，我們拭目以待。確實如此——這取決於你銷售的市場，而且我要說的是，我們今年計劃出售或目前在市場上銷售的所有資產都是較老的高層建築，而且其中大部分位於較早開發的地區。因此，它們與我們的長期投資組合目標非常契合。

So one thing I'd add on that San Francisco assets specifically, is that's a 50-plus year old high-rise asset with some heavy CapEx subject to rent control. So it's a little bit of an outlier for our portfolio, not necessarily representative of the rest of the assets that we own in the city.

所以，關於舊金山的這些資產，我想補充一點，那就是這是一棟有 50 多年歷史的高層建築，有一些巨額資本支出，而且受到租金管制。所以，這在我們投資組合中算是一個比較特殊的例子，不一定能代表我們在城市中擁有的其他資產。

Jana Galan, Bank of America.

Jana Galan，美國銀行。

Following up on the renewal rates in the fourth quarter in January, Were there any specific markets that kind of drove the decline versus the third quarter? I know you mentioned layoffs in Boston. I'm just curious if there's any markets where you're willing to maybe negotiate a little bit more to protect occupancy?

繼1月公佈的第四季續約率之後，是否存在某些特定市場導致了與第三季相比的下降？我知道你提到了波士頓的裁員情況。我只是好奇，在某些市場，您是否願意在價格上做出一些讓步以保障入住率？

Yes. Good question. It's Sean. I would say, in general, what we see is a little bit of moderation in Q4 because seasonally, you're seeing the asking rents for move-ins come down, and there is a correlation between the renewal rates you can achieve and what -- think about it, what people see on the website for the deal down the street.

是的。問得好。是肖恩。總的來說，我認為我們在第四季度看到的是略微放緩，因為從季節性因素來看，入住的要價會下降，而且續租率與——想想看，人們在網站上看到的街對面房源的價格——之間存在相關性。

So as you had softer move-ins, been usually a little bit softer in Q4 this past year. You see it trend down. So it was more broad-based than individual, I would say the markets where we probably negotiated more some of the softer markets that I mentioned earlier in terms of the Mid-Atlantic, as an example, Boston and then Denver private outliers to the weaker side as compared to the average.

所以，由於入住率較低，去年第四季的入住率通常略低。你可以看到它呈下降趨勢。所以，它更多的是針對整體市場而非個別市場。我認為，我們可能更多地與一些我之前提到的中大西洋地區較軟的市場進行談判，例如波士頓和丹佛的私人市場，與平均水平相比，這些市場屬於較弱的一方。

Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.

傑米·費爾德曼，富國銀行。

Can you talk more about the other income drag from the legislative activity last year? And then also, I guess, along those lines, I mean, it's a midterm election year, affordability is a hot topic. Any other initiatives you guys are watching closely? I know there's a Massachusetts potential ball initiative. Just what should we keep our eyes on this year from the political front?

能否詳細談談去年立法活動對收入造成的其他拖累？另外，我想，從這個角度來看，今年是中期選舉年，住房負擔能力是個熱門話題。你們還在密切關注哪些其他措施？我知道馬薩諸塞州有一項關於球類運動的倡議。今年我們在政治方面該關注哪些方面？

Jamie, it's Sean. First, on the other rental revenue side, there's really two or three drivers to it are probably the ones that are most meaningful to call out legislation passed in Colorado that is impacting the ability to charge certain fees or cap certain fees that's flowing through other rental revenue.

傑米，我是肖恩。首先，在租賃收入方面，真正起作用的因素有兩三個，其中最有意義的是科羅拉多州通過的立法，這些立法影響了收取某些費用或限制某些費用的能力，而這些費用會透過其他租賃收入流入市場。

In addition to that, by the way, we didn't call this out on the OpEx side, but it also limits our ability to recover some utility components as well, which is about a 15 basis point drag in terms of OpEx growth that it wasn't something, again, we called out on the slide.

此外，順便一提，我們在營運支出方面沒有提到這一點，但這也會限制我們回收一些公用事業組件的能力，這在營運支出成長方面造成了大約 15 個基點的拖累，而這一點，我們再次沒有在幻燈片中提到。

And then the other one is new legislation in California, AB 1414 that provides residents with the option to opt out of a bulk Internet program to the extent there is another offering available at the community. We don't know exactly how many people will opt out, but we have looked at other programs for residents who have an opt-out right like print control program, et cetera, and modeled it to reflect that type of outcome. Those are the two primary ones that are dragging. There's a couple of other small things, but those are the two big ones.

還有一項是加州的新立法 AB 1414，它允許居民在社區有其他服務可用的情況下選擇退出批量互聯網計劃。我們不知道會有多少人選擇退出，但我們已經研究了其他居民可以選擇退出的項目，例如列印控制項目等，並對其進行了建模，以反映這類結果。這是導致進度緩慢的主要原因。還有一些其他的小問題，但以上兩點才是最重要的。

And then as it relates to kind of the forward -- looking in terms of the election. What I'd say is, yes, we're keeping an eye on Massachusetts. I think I mentioned on the last call, the way that ballot initiative was drafted is pretty onerous. And so onerous enough that already various political leaders in Massachusetts have already come out and said that they are opposed to it, completely opposed to it. So we will have to go through a process here to potentially defeat it, but we do believe that relative to other initiatives we fought like in California, this one probably is set up to be a little bit easier to defeat.

然後，就展望未來而言——就選舉而言。我想說的是，是的，我們正在密切關注馬薩諸塞州的情況。我想我在上次通話中提到過，那項投票提案的措詞相當繁瑣。這項法案如此繁重，以至於馬薩諸塞州的幾位政治領袖已經公開表示反對，完全反對。因此，我們需要經歷一個過程才能最終戰勝它，但我們相信，與我們在加州等地反對的其他提案相比，這個提案可能更容易被擊敗一些。

And then other things we're keeping an eye on are things that are similar to what happened in Colorado or California, where people are being thoughtful about not going directly at things like rent control, but wanting to make sure there is increased transparency and disclosure around the fees that you're charging for different things, how do you recover utilities, et cetera.

此外，我們也正在關註一些類似科羅拉多州或加州發生的事情，人們正在謹慎地避免直接採取租金管制等措施，而是希望確保提高收費的透明度和資訊揭露，例如如何收取各種費用、如何收回水電費等等。

Those are the ones that we're keeping an eye on and the Massachusetts council as well as a lot of the various associations around the country. are very engaged in those types of activities to make sure people are aware of what's good legislation versus not.

我們一直在密切關注這些議題，馬薩諸塞州議會以及全國各地的許多協會都積極參與這類活動，以確保人們了解哪些立法是好的，哪些不是。

Okay. And then I guess just going back to the comments on New Jersey, I think you had mentioned rents are lower, but costs are lower on new developments. You've got a decent amount of lease-up in those markets.

好的。然後，我想回到關於新澤西州的評論，我想你提到過，那裡的租金較低，但新開發項目的成本也較低。這些市場的租賃情況相當不錯。

And I think in your latest start is also in New Jersey and then your stats over the year on the weaker side of your markets. Can you just give more color on your expectations both on the lease-up side, timing of getting those projects done and even the new start, what gives you confidence to start there given there is so much supply coming in that market?

而且我認為你最近的開局也是在新澤西州，而你全年的統計數據也表明，你在市場較弱的一側表現不佳。您能否更詳細地說明您對租賃方面的預期，包括專案完成的時間安排，以及新專案的啟動情況？鑑於該市場供應量如此之大，是什麼讓您有信心在那裡啟動專案？

I guess I can start and then maybe Sean can talk as well about the stabilized portfolio. On the -- there's not necessarily that much supply coming there, maybe a little more than what we've seen in the past. But it is still one of our strongest markets. And it's not as strong this year as New York City, but it tends to be within New York City as a core bit, obviously, particularly Northern New Jersey. So our lease-ups there are doing fine.

我想我可以先開始，然後肖恩也許可以談談穩定的投資組合。至於──那裡的供應量未必很多，可能比我們過去看到的還要多一點。但它仍然是我們最強勁的市場之一。雖然今年紐約市的疫情不如今年那麼嚴重，但顯然，紐約市的核心區域，特別是新澤西州北部，仍然是疫情的重災區。所以，我們在那裡的租賃業務進展順利。

They're generally tracking on plan. And in general, our lease-ups actually picked up a little bit here. We saw in Q4 across our whole lease-up book, which includes three or four in New Jersey, average leases in Q4, which is a slow quarter, was about 20%. And in January, we actually did 2 million across the nine deals or deals -- seven deals, whatever we have in lease-up.

總體而言，他們的進展符合計劃。總的來說，我們這裡的租賃業務實際上略有成長。我們看到，在第四季度，我們整個租賃業務（包括新澤西州的三到四個項目）的平均租賃率約為 20%，而第四季度通常是淡季。1 月份，我們實際上完成了 200 萬美元的租賃交易，涉及九筆交易或七筆租賃交易。

So we're continuing to get good traction. We basically will price to get the communities full before we have our first renewal. So typically within a year to 15 months. And we'll kind of adjust the pricing of needed to meet the pace that we're looking to meet. What we are seeing is, like last year, we had a completion in New Jersey that finished, I think, 20 or 30 basis points above pro forma.

所以我們持續取得良好進展。我們基本上會透過定價策略，在第一次續約之前就把社區的房源全部租出去。所以通常是在一年到十五個月內。我們會根據需要調整價格，以滿足我們想要達到的發展速度。我們看到的情況是，就像去年一樣，我們在新澤西州完成了一筆交易，最終結果比預期高出 20 或 30 個基點。

That's what we've seen in general over the last couple of years.

過去幾年，我們總體上看到的就是這種情況。

I'd say where we are today, the deals that we have currently in lease-up they're tracking on pro forma. So not necessarily beating pro forma anymore, but we still feel good that the initial spread that we underwrote is holding.

我想說，就我們目前的情況而言，我們正在進行的租賃交易，他們正在按計劃追蹤。所以不一定能超越預期，但我們仍然對我們最初承保的利差保持穩定感到滿意。

Jim, just in terms of the specific deals, we had three deals with lease-up activity through Q4 into January. So through Q4, kind of average monthly pace was around $20 a month. When you get into January, the three deals, Avalon Parsippany did 32, did 24, which are pretty good numbers in January, where it was also pretty darn cold. So those are pretty good numbers in our view, above what we would have expected in January, frankly.

吉姆，就具體交易而言，我們在第四季到一月份之間有三筆租賃交易。因此，第四季平均每月收入約為 20 美元。到了 1 月份，三筆交易，Avalon Parsippany 分別完成了 32 筆、24 筆交易，這在 1 月份算是相當不錯的數字了，而且 1 月份的天氣也相當冷。所以，在我們看來，這些數字相當不錯，坦白說，比我們1月的預期還要高。

Okay. That's good to hear. Better to be indoors in out there, I guess, leasing space.

好的。聽到這個消息真好。我想，待在室內比待在室外好，租個地方住比較好。

Very true.

確實如此。

Rich Hightower, Barclays.

Rich Hightower，巴克萊銀行。

Curious if you can give us an update on your views around the D.C. market and surrounding markets. the Dosepak, I think maybe it was a little bit understated as of a quarter ago. So where do we sit today with that?

想請您談談對華盛頓特區及週邊市場的看法。我覺得上個季度Dosepak的業績可能被低估了。那麼，我們目前對此有何看法？

Yes, Rich, it's Sean. I can start and then others can add it, Peter. I mean the fundamental issue has been a lot of jobs. If you look at the last six months actual, the data trued up and everything. We lost about 60,000 jobs across the Mid-Atlantic.

是的，里奇，我是肖恩。彼得，我可以先開始，然後其他人可以補充。我的意思是，根本問題在於就業的短缺。如果你看一下過去六個月的實際數據，所有數據都經過了校正和修正。我們在整個大西洋中部地區失去了大約 6 萬個工作機會。

Yes, that's the primary driver of the softness. So I think the question that people have asked, and there's not a 100% clear answer is, is there more to come or not? -- when we were talking about this earlier in 2025 back in Q2 and even Q3, the data was certainly lagging and it takes time for it to filter through.

是的，這就是柔軟的主要原因。所以我認為大家提出的問題，目前還沒有一個完全明確的答案，就是：未來是否還會有更多？ ——早在2025年第二季甚至第三季度，我們就討論過這個問題，但當時的數據肯定存在滯後，需要時間才能匯總起來。

So we think we got '25 in relatively captured, but there could be another revision here soon, but we'll have a good feel for that. I think the way to think about the Mid-Atlantic is, obviously, the impact of that has been meaningful in terms of demand in the market.

所以我們認為我們已經基本掌握了 2025 年的情況，但可能很快還會有另一次修改，不過我們會對此有所了解。我認為看待大西洋中部地區的方式很明顯，那就是它對市場需求產生了重大影響。

What we feel a little bit better about is, one, as I mentioned earlier, about a 60% reduction in deliveries in 2026 as compared to 2025. That is a very large number. So if we start to see at least some stabilization from the federal government and other major employers or even some modest growth, without that kind of supply, particularly as we go to the back half of the year, things should start to look better.

我們感到稍微好一點的是，正如我之前提到的，2026 年的交付量將比 2025 年減少約 60%。這是一個非常大的數字。因此，如果我們開始看到聯邦政府和其他主要雇主至少出現一些穩定措施，甚至出現一些溫和增長，即使沒有這種供應，尤其是在下半年，情況應該會開始好轉。

And if we see an uptick in job growth beyond what we've already forecasted that it's potentially a market that could have some upside to it. I think what Ben noted is there needs to be a little more business confidence as it relates to making investments in a stable environment. And consumer confidence as well, just so they feel comfortable making those commitments. But I think it's a little bit of a TBD, but we're expecting basically the first half of this year to look a lot like the second half of last year.

如果就業成長超過我們先前的預測，那麼這個市場可能會有一定的上漲空間。我認為本指出的一點是，在穩定的環境下進行投資，需要增強一些商業信心。還有消費者信心，這樣他們才能安心地做出這些承諾。但我認為這還不太確定，不過我們預計今年上半年的情況基本上會和去年下半年非常相似。

Okay. That's helpful, Sean. And then I guess the second question is just maybe more general about the transaction environment. When we hear on your call and some of your peers calls that market cap rates, in many cases, are or even in the 4s in certain markets. Just curious what is driving that if we sort of segment, it between capital flows, debt availability, or underlying optimism around fundamentals.

好的。那很有幫助，肖恩。那麼，我想第二個問題可能更一般性地涉及交易環境。當我們從您和一些同儕的電話會議中得知，在許多情況下，某些市場的市值比率甚至只有 4 倍。我很好奇，如果我們將其細分為資本流動、債務可用性或對基本面的潛在樂觀情緒等因素，是什麼在驅動這種趨勢？

What do you think is sort of driving that cap rate compression where we sit today?

你認為目前導致資本化率下降的原因是什麼？

Yes. This is Matt. I guess I can take that one. It is a little bit surprising, but we've been saying that really for the last couple of years. So I think you've got a couple of different crosscurrents here.

是的。這是馬特。我想我可以接受這個。這有點出乎意料，但實際上我們在過去幾年裡一直都是這麼說的。所以我覺得這裡有幾個不同的交織的因素。

I know a bunch of folks were just out at NMHC last week.

我知道上週有不少人去了NMHC。

So probably the biggest recent shift in favor of supporting cap rates where they are is the debt markets, which has become very competitive, very deep and liquid. And so spreads have come in quite a bit. And so for buyers out there, they're levered buyers, they definitely have access to lower cost and larger check size debt that may be a year or two ago. That is, to some extent, counteracted by a little bit of headwinds in the numerator, which is obviously the NOI being capped with relatively flattish NOI growth positive in some markets, negative than others.

因此，近期有利於維持目前資本化率的最大轉變可能在於債務市場，而債務市場已經變得競爭非常激烈、規模非常大、流動性非常強。因此，價差已經縮小了不少。因此，對於市場上的買家，尤其是那些使用槓桿的買家來說，他們肯定能夠獲得成本更低、金額更大的債務，而這可能是在一兩年前發生的。也就是說，在某種程度上，分子中的一些不利因素抵消了這一影響，這顯然是由於淨營業收入 (NOI) 增長相對平緩所致，一些市場的 NOI 增長為正，而另一些市場則為負。

And then the third piece of it is just investor sentiment and equity, and there is a lot of equity that's on the sidelines that's anxious to get in. And we've seen that really growing for the last couple of years. There's dry powder out there. It's looking to be deployed. There's a lot of people whose livelihood depend on it.

第三部分是投資人情緒和股權，有很多股權投資人在場外觀望，渴望入場。過去幾年，我們已經看到這種趨勢迅速增長。市面上有乾粉。它似乎即將部署。很多人的生計都依賴它。

So what we continue to see is this bifurcated market where for the assets that check the boxes, the bid is deep, the bid is robust and buyers are optimistic enough that they will underwrite through another year or so of operating softness to what they expect to be a pretty robust recovery two or three years from now. But then there are another subset of assets where they're only going to transact if there is a wider spread between the debt rate and the going in yield or cap rate and a lot of those are the deals that are not transacting.

因此，我們繼續看到的是這種兩極分化的市場，對於符合條件的資產，出價很高，出價也很強勁，買家們足夠樂觀，他們願意承受再過一年左右的運營疲軟，因為他們預計兩三年後將出現相當強勁的複蘇。但還有另一類資產，只有當債務利率與初始收益率或資本化率之間存在較大利差時，它們才會進行交易，而許多這類交易最終都沒有成交。

I want addition to it, just to give you a little bit more market color. I mean we're not overly active on the buying front right now, but obviously, we're attuned and do selectively look at deals and the types of assets that we would focus on, people are still stepping up and paying cap rates that are in the 4.7, 4.8 type of range.

我想補充一點，提供大家一些更豐富的市場資訊。我的意思是，我們目前在收購方面並不十分活躍，但顯然，我們保持著敏銳的洞察力，並且會選擇性地關注交易和我們關注的資產類型，人們仍然願意支付 4.7、4.8 之類的資本化率。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

John Kim，BMO資本市場。

I know it's not your biggest market, but when you look at your expectations for same-store revenue in Denver, it's noticeably lower than other expansion markets and what you have delivered last year. And what's driving that for you?

我知道丹佛不是你們最大的市場，但是看看你們對丹佛同店收入的預期，就會發現它明顯低於其他擴張市場以及你們去年的實際業績。是什麼驅使你這樣做？

Yes, John, this is Sean. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, I think 2025 was a tough year for the Denver market. Essentially zero job growth and significant deliveries. This year, what we're expecting is very modest job growth consistent with the outlook that Ben provided earlier but there's still another 9,000 units to come. So you've got some hangover inventory from 2025 that was delivered but not absorbed.

是的，約翰，這是肖恩。正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的，我認為 2025 年對丹佛市場來說是艱難的一年。就業成長基本上為零，但交付量顯著增加。今年，我們預計就業成長將非常溫和，與本先前給出的展望一致，但還有 9000 個單位即將投入使用。所以你們還有一些 2025 年的庫存積壓，這些庫存已經交付但尚未被消化。

And then you add another 9,000 units to that with very modest job growth that's a simple story of just too much supply given the relatively anemic demand and that's the near-term outlook for that market.

再加上新增的 9,000 套住房，而就業成長卻非常有限，這說明供應過剩，而需求卻相對疲軟，這就是該市場近期的前景。

And is this market more vulnerable to tech layoff than others?

這個市場是否比其他市場更容易受到科技業裁員的影響？

I'm not sure on a relative basis, it would be given the concentration of tech jobs in Denver is below some other regions we're in like Seattle and Northern California per se. It would have exposure, but I'm not sure that it punches above its white class in terms of exposure to the tech.

我不太確定，但從相對角度來看，丹佛的科技工作集中度低於我們所在的其他一些地區，例如西雅圖和北加州。它會有曝光機會，但我不確定它在科技領域的曝光度是否高於其白人階級。

Nick Yulico, Scotiabank.

Nick Yulico，加拿大豐業銀行。

I just wanted to go back to the decision to have lower development starts this year. How much of that was driven by a focus on improving your FFO growth given some of the sort of near-term dilutive aspects of development? And I guess, specifically, I think, Kevin, your kind of saying that there was some benefit then to 2027 from doing that. So if you could just flesh that out.

我只是想重申今年減少開發案開工量的決定。考慮到開發過程中某些短期內可能出現的稀釋性因素，你們在多大程度上專注於提高 FFO 成長？我想，具體來說，凱文，你的意思是說，這樣做對 2027 年有一些好處。所以，如果能把這部分補充完整就好了。

Sure, Nick, it's Kevin. I'll offer a few comments. Others may want to add some additional color. I'd say really, really wasn't a factor at all in our decision about the development start volume for this year. Our decision in that regard, as we discussed earlier, was really no outlined driven by our own sense about the opportunity set that we have within our own portfolio, what we think we might be able to achieve through our DFP program and the related funding costs in terms of the economic value add that, that activity will provide for our shareholders over time.

當然，尼克，我是凱文。我謹提出幾點意見。其他人可能想添加一些其他顏色。我覺得這真的完全沒有影響我們今年的開發啟動規模的決定。正如我們之前討論過的，我們在這方面的決定，實際上並非基於我們對自身投資組合中機會的理解，而是基於我們認為透過 DFP 計劃能夠實現的目標，以及相關的融資成本，以及該活動將隨著時間的推移為我們的股東帶來的經濟附加價值。

I think in terms of the dynamics that I referenced in my scripted remarks in regard to kind of slide 14 and 15, I think what we're trying to provide there is a little bit more transparency to investors on the -- really the several dynamics that determine development earnings, which is not merely the NOI yield and development NOI that we received from development activity as it stabilizes and the associated funding costs but also the impact of capitalized interest as it flows through.

我認為，就我在第 14 和 15 張投影片中提到的動態而言，我們試圖向投資者提供更多透明度，讓他們了解決定開發收益的幾個動態因素，這不僅包括我們從開發活動中獲得的 NOI 收益率和開發 NOI（隨著開發活動趨於穩定）以及相關的融資成本，還包括資本化利息的影響。

That seems to be a dynamic that based on our own discussions with investors hasn't always been uniformly well understood. And so we thought we'd use this as an opportunity to provide a little bit more clarity on that for investors. But in terms of informing our capital allocation decisions, that's not really a factor at all. It's been a dynamic that we've had to reflect in our GAAP financials really over our 30-year history.

根據我們與投資者的討論，這種動態似乎並沒有得到所有人的充分理解。因此，我們認為應該藉此機會，為投資者提供更清晰的解釋。但就影響我們的資本配置決策而言，這根本不是需要考慮的因素。在過去的 30 年裡，我們一直需要在 GAAP 財務報表中反映這種動態變化。

And it's kind of sometimes it's been a plus and sometimes it's been a negative, but at the margin, it all washes out and really what drives our core FFO growth over time is not only what happens to the same-store book, but importantly in this regard, the underlying profitability of our development activity, which continues to be quite attractive. And so for us, I think it's really just looking at the incremental yields versus the incremental funding costs and the opportunity that's driving our sizing of the opportunity for development starts this year.

有時候這會帶來正面影響，有時會帶來負面影響，但從整體來看，這些影響都會被抵消。真正推動我們核心 FFO 成長的，不僅是同店銷售額的變化，更重要的是我們開發活動的潛在獲利能力，而這方面的獲利能力仍然相當可觀。因此，我認為對我們來說，真正重要的是要考慮增量收益與增量融資成本之間的關係，以及推動我們確定今年開發項目啟動機會規模的機會。

Okay. And then I guess my second question is if we stay in this higher interest rate world where you're having that impact from capitalized interest versus borrowing cost, harder to raise maybe common equity where you want to raise it. Is there an approach perhaps of going towards, I don't know if the company has considered doing a fund, doing more JVs as a way to source capital also minimize some of this earnings dilution that is coming from the development on the balance sheet.

好的。那麼我的第二個問題是，如果我們繼續處於高利率環境，資本化利息與借貸成本之間的這種影響，是否會使籌集你想要籌集的普通股變得更加困難。是否有可能採取某種方式，我不知道公司是否考慮過設立基金，或透過更多的合資企業來籌集資金，同時盡量減少資產負債表上因業務發展而導致的收益稀釋？

Nick, it's Ben. Less your last point there about dealing with the earnings dynamic, but in terms of your broader question is private capital is something that we think about. Yes, we -- I do think about private capital as being a tool in our toolbox. We actually have a large joint venture via Invesco with a state pension fund for a number of our New York City assets. People remember back long enough in Avalon base history, we did have at that point.

尼克，我是本。關於您最後一點，即如何應對獲利動態，我們暫且不談。但就您更廣泛的問題而言，私人資本是我們正在考慮的問題。是的，我們——我確實認為私人資本是我們工具箱中的一種工具。實際上，我們透過景順集團與州退休基金成立了一家大型合資企業，共同管理我們在紐約市的一些資產。人們還記得阿瓦隆基地的悠久歷史，那時我們確實擁有過這樣的基地。

Nothing we're actively working on at this point, sort of the channels that we've generally thought about One would be in and around a portfolio allocation objective where there could be a pool of assets where we want to monetize a portion of those assets, but importantly, retain the operating density in the market. Those could be a pool that we look to put into a joint venture or a private capital vehicle.

目前我們還沒有積極進行任何相關工作，我們通常考慮的管道之一是圍繞投資組合配置目標，其中可能存在一個資產池，我們希望將其中一部分資產貨幣化，但重要的是，要保持市場營運密度。這些資金可以作為資金池，我們考慮將其投入合資企業或私人資本工具。

And the second bucket would be in and around external growth. right, as we think about funding potentially a larger pie of activity with capital that's in addition to our mothership capital.

第二個面向是外部成長。沒錯，當我們考慮用除母公司資本之外的額外資金來資助更大規模的業務活動時，情況就是如此。

And maybe, Nick, just to kind of add a little bit more color on what we can do year in, year out from an investment standpoint without accessing the equity markets or levering up. The way we tend to think about our capacity is in in terms of what we describe as the leverage to fund capacity through the sum of free cash flow, leveraged EBITDA growth and asset sales before we hit our distribution obligation that typically averages around $1.5 billion a year.

尼克，或許可以再補充一點，從投資的角度來看，我們每年可以在不進入股票市場或增加槓桿的情況下做些什麼。我們通常認為，我們有能力透過自由現金流、槓桿 EBITDA 成長和資產出售來為產能提供資金，而這筆資金是在達到我們通常平均每年約 15 億美元的分配義務之前獲得的。

So if you think about what we can do on the investment front each year typically is around $1.5 billion of development starts, more give or take that we can do year in or out of the opportunity set there. So by starting $800 million this year, we are quite deliberately allowing ourselves room and capacity to do more makes sense either in the form of our buyback activity or development activity. So we do have that flexibility.

因此，如果你想想我們每年在投資方面能做的事情，通常是每年大約有 15 億美元的開發項目啟動，當然，我們每年能做的事情也會根據機會而有所增減。因此，透過今年啟動 8 億美元的投資，我們有意為自己留出空間和能力，以便在回購活動或開發活動中進行更多有意義的工作。所以我們確實有這種彈性。

Anthony Paolone, JPMorgan.

Anthony Paolone，摩根大通。

Great. First question relates to just the series of initiatives and announcements coming out of the White House to prompt more for-sale housing activity at SIMs. Any of those that you think might have teeth or that you're watching more closely in terms of it impacting your portfolio potentially prompting move-outs or kind of implications back on rents?

偉大的。第一個問題僅與白宮為促進SIMs地區更多待售房屋活動而推出的一系列舉措和公告有關。你認為其中有哪些可能會產生實際影響，或者你正在密切關注它們是否會對你的投資組合產生影響，例如可能導致租戶搬離或對租金產生某種影響？

Something we're monitoring, watching. But the short answer to your question is no. Really, our focus at the national and federal level, working with trade associations like NMHC to support supply-based solutions.

我們正在密切關注。但對於你的問題，簡短的回答是否定的。實際上，我們在國家和聯邦層面的重點是與 NMHC 等行業協會合作，以支持以供應為基礎的解決方案。

We very much see ourselves as a creator of housing, most of our developments, we provide 20% to 30% affordable housing as part of that, that typically comes with the approval requirements. So finding ways that we both individually at Avalon Bay and as an industry can help support further supply is where we've been focusing our efforts.

我們非常重視自己作為住房創造者的角色，在我們的大多數開發項目中，都會提供 20% 到 30% 的經濟適用房，這通常需要滿足審批要求。因此，我們一直致力於尋找各種方式，無論是 Avalon Bay 的個人還是整個產業，都可以幫助支持進一步的供應。

Okay. And just second one. Can you give us bad debts in 4Q and '25 and then also the -- what's in your guidance for '26.

好的。第二個。能否提供一下 2025 年第四季和 2025 年的壞帳數據，以及 2026 年的業績指引？

Yes, I'm happy to do that. Essentially, where we ended up is right -- you said fourth quarter specifically?

是的，我很樂意這樣做。基本上，我們最終的結果是正確的——你特指第四季？

Yes, 4Q and then the full year in order to get some sense as to what 26 is and whether that's a headwind tailwind?

是的，我們需要第四季以及全年的數據，才能了解26這個數字意味著什麼，以及它究竟是逆風還是順風？

Okay. Got you. Yes. So at a high level, so basically, for 2025, we ended at 1.6%. Our forecast is 1.4% for 2026. And as it relates to the fourth quarter, which is only a slightly higher quarter than average, that came in like 1.63.

好的。抓到你了。是的。所以從總體上看，基本上，到 2025 年，我們最終的結果是 1.6%。我們預測2026年成長率為1.4%。至於第四季度，雖然比平均值略高一些，但實際數值為 1.63。

Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho Securities.

Haendel St. Juste，瑞穗證券。

Two quick ones here. So first, I wanted to little bit color on San Francisco, Seattle. Maybe you could talk a bit more about your expectation of tech employment growth there near term, lots of layup announcements of late, AI headlines, software clingers in the market. It seems like the situation is still evolving. Maybe it gets better, maybe not, but curious how you factor that into your employment outlook and rent expectations for those markets?

這裡有兩個簡短的問題。首先，我想稍微介紹一下舊金山和西雅圖。或許您可以再多談談您對近期當地科技就業成長的預期，最近有很多新項目發布，人工智慧相關新聞不斷，軟體公司在市場上仍然佔有一席之地。情況似乎仍在改變。情況或許會好轉，或許不會，但我很好奇您是如何將這些因素納入您對這些市場的就業前景和租金預期中的？

Yes, it's Sean. What I would say is the pace that we saw in the back half of 2025 is sort of what we expect to continue, particularly through the first half of 2016. And then as Ben noted, a slight uptick in job growth for the forecast from Mabe in the back half of the year, Seattle lost jobs in the back half of 2025. And then across the Bay Area is relatively flat. San Francisco was ahead, but San Jose and the East Bay were a little bit behind.

是的，是肖恩。我想說的是，我們在 2025 年下半年看到的這種速度，我們預計會繼續保持下去，尤其是在 2016 年上半年。正如本所指出的，儘管梅布預測下半年就業成長略有上升，但西雅圖在 2025 年下半年卻失去了工作。而且舊金山灣區的地勢相對平坦。舊金山領先，但聖荷西和東灣稍微落後。

So that's sort of what's embedded in the forecast right now. What's important to note, in addition to actual job growth is wage growth, though, and wage growth continues to be pretty good.

所以，這就是目前預測中隱含的內容。除了實際就業成長之外，值得注意的是薪資成長，而薪資成長依然相當不錯。

It's moderating a bit, it's still pretty healthy, certainly healthier than what you might expect that's implied by our move-in rent change. But is probably more consistent with what you would expect on the renewal side. So that's a key component that we monitor to make sure that existing resident capacity is there to pay higher rents.

情況有所緩和，仍然相當健康，肯定比我們搬進來時的租金變化所暗示的情況要健康得多。但這可能更符合續約的預期。所以這是我們監控的關鍵因素，以確保現有居民有能力支付更高的租金。

That's good color. I appreciate that. One more, if I would. It sounds like one of the messages from this call is this year is a bit of a transition year. The setup for next year looks more exciting, at least at this at this point, you mentioned inflection in your rent into the back half of the year more development contribution.

顏色真好看。我很感激。如果可以的話，再來一個。聽起來，這次通話傳達的訊息之一是，今年是過渡年。明年的安排看起來更令人興奮，至少目前來看是這樣。你提到下半年租金將出現拐點，這會帶來更多的發展貢獻。

So I guess, overall, their assessment, is that a fair assessment? And would you say or how excited are you about the earnings election potential for the portfolio into 2017? And then maybe some comments on the Sunbelt expansion market, how do you expect those to play out in the course of this year and next year.

所以，總的來說，他們的評估是否公正呢？那麼，您對該投資組合在 2017 年的獲利前景有多大期待呢？然後，或許可以談談陽光地帶的擴張市場，您預計今年和明年這些市場會如何發展？

There's a lot in there. I'll comment on part of it and just given time. We can circle back with you, Haendel. In terms of the year, I really would bifurcate it in terms of sort of the internal growth aspects of it, the operating fundamentals are softer than we expected six months ago, supply is, for sure, going to be a tailwind and a soft uncertain demand environment, our view is in markets that are going to be the relative winners are going to be those with the lowest levels of supply and we feel well positioned there both in the near term and for the foreseeable future, particularly given our suburban coastal concentrations.

裡面內容很多。我會就其中一部分發表評論，但需要一些時間。我們可以再跟你聯繫，亨德爾。就今年而言，我真的會從內部成長方面將其分為兩部分。營運基本面比我們六個月前預期的要疲軟，供應肯定會是一個利好因素，而需求環境疲軟且不確定。我們認為，相對而言，供應水平最低的市場將成為贏家，我們感覺無論在短期還是在可預見的未來，我們都處於有利地位，特別是考慮到我們在郊區沿海地區的集中佈局。

And then on the external growth side, yes, I mean you -- we consciously did provide more visibility to investors in our presentation about the ramping of activity, both development NOI and development earnings as we progress through 2026 and 2027, and that was intentional.

至於外部成長方面，是的，我的意思是——我們在向投資者展示活動進展情況時，特意增加了透明度，包括 2026 年和 2027 年的開發淨營業收入和開發收益，這是我們有意為之的。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

Can you kind of provide a breakdown of the performance between urban and suburban. And does that vary by the East Coast, West Coast and developed markets?

能否提供一下城市和郊區表現的詳細比較數據？這種情況是否會因東岸、西岸和已開發市場而異？

And Michael, just so I understand what you're referring to. You're talking about revenue growth? Are you talking about rent change. Kind of what are you exactly thinking there.

還有，邁克爾，我只是想確認你指的是什麼。您指的是營收成長嗎？您說的是租金變動嗎？你到底在想什麼？

Yes. Just the rent change, I guess, just trying to understand the kind of the performance in these markets.

是的。我想只是租金變化而已，我只是想了解這些市場的表現。

Yes. What I can tell you in terms of, call it, submarket type for rent change, for the last couple of quarters, the urban portfolio has outperformed our suburban portfolio. One thing gets keep in mind in that regard is it doesn't mean in absolute sense that those markets are healthier. You have to look at each one because in some cases, what's inflating that rent change in some of the urban submarkets is that they are less bad than they were a year ago. Concessions for three months, another two months, that's an 8% effective rent change right there.

是的。就租金變化的細分市場類型而言，我可以告訴你的是，在過去的幾個季度裡，城市投資組合的表現優於郊區投資組合。在這方面需要記住的一點是，這並不意味著這些市場絕對意義上就更健康。你必須逐一查看，因為在某些情況下，一些城市次級市場的租金上漲是因為它們的狀況比一年前要好一些。三個月的租金優惠，再加上兩個月的租金優惠，實際租金變動就達到了 8%。

So I would just keep that in mind as you think about it. So some markets are pretty healthy.

所以，我在考慮這個問題的時候，我會把這一點牢記在心。所以有些市場狀況相當健康。

San Francisco is looking very healthy. Some of that is commission driven, but it's also good lease rate growth. New York City is quite positive, but in their places probably like Seattle. -- we're still pretty soft, but concessions aren't as bad as they used to be. So just keep that in mind.

舊金山看起來非常健康。其中一部分是佣金驅動的，但也得益於良好的租金成長。紐約市的情況相當樂觀，但有些地方可能和西雅圖的情況類似——我們仍然比較軟弱，但讓步的力度沒有以前那麼大了。所以請記住這一點。

Got it. And my follow-up question is starts in the fourth quarter included a CAMSO and a town home community. So could there be more opportunities in these types that may be a competitive advantage Avalon Bay over other builders?

知道了。我的後續問題是，第四季開始的項目包括一個 CAMSO 和一個聯排別墅社區。那麼，這些類型中是否蘊藏更多機遇，能夠為 Avalon Bay 帶來相對於其他建商的競爭優勢呢？

Yes, Matt, I would say, yes. I appreciate the call out there. We do in our 26 starts, we do have another townhome BTR community plan and we give another conso plan. So we are -- we have a wider variety of product offering to the market and what a typical merchant builder would provide. And as I mentioned in my opening remarks, we are trying to build to where we think future demand is headed and also access some of those maybe underappreciated niches, which also gets a little bit of an earlier question about kind of are we able to generate yields higher than maybe others.

是的，馬特，我會說，是的。感謝那邊的來電。在我們啟動的 26 個項目中，我們還有另一個聯排別墅 BTR 社區計劃，我們還提供另一個公寓計劃。所以，我們能夠向市場提供比一般商家建站工具更廣泛的產品。正如我在開場白中提到的，我們正在努力朝著我們認為未來需求的方向發展，並進入一些可能被低估的細分市場，這也引出了先前提出的一個問題，即我們是否能夠產生比其他人更高的收益。

And that's all part of it.

而這一切都是其中的一部分。

Alex Kim, Zelman & Associates.

Alex Kim，Zelman & Associates。

Just digging up piggybacking quickly off of that last one. You've highlighted BTR as a strategic growth channel. Just curious if you could provide more color on some of the yield differentials between colon product versus traditional multifamily? And then how the operating metrics like rent growth, turnover occupancy compare?

只是順著上一條線索快速挖掘一下。您已將BTR（建築技術改造）視為策略性成長管道。我很好奇您能否更詳細地介紹一下大腸產品與傳統多戶住宅在產量差異方面的一些情況？那麼，租金成長、週轉率和入住率等營運指標對比情況又是如何呢？

Yes. It's Matt. I can speak to that a little bit, and Sean may want to as well. It's really too early to tell kind of longer term. I don't think the product's been around there long enough.

是的。是馬特。我可以稍微談談這方面，肖恩可能也想談談。現在判斷長期影響還為時過早。我認為這款產品在那裡上市的時間還不夠長。

We have a subset of our portfolio of its rental town homes that we've had for quite a while, and those have generally tended to perform as well as or maybe slightly better then and the communities to which they're attached. We have a number of communities where we might have 20, 30, 40 count homes and 200, 300 flats, we have a few there 100% townhome. But -- but it does open up additional sites.

我們擁有一部分出租聯排別墅，這些別墅已經持有相當長一段時間了，而且這些別墅的表現通常與它們所在的社區一樣好，甚至可能略好一些。我們有一些社區，其中可能有 20、30、40 棟房屋和 200、300 套公寓，還有一些社區完全是聯排別墅。但是——但是它確實開闢了其他網站。

And it also, we believe, is aligned for future growth better. One of the things we've said going all the way back to our Investor Day is, in some ways, we feel like our portfolio is better positioned for the next decade's worth of demand in the last decade's worth of demand. So there's not a whole lot of long-term history yet. The yields are kind of similar. The expense profile is different.

而我們認為，這也更有利於未來的發展。從我們的投資者日開始，我們就一直強調，在某種程度上，我們認為我們的投資組合比過去十年更能滿足未來十年的需求。所以目前還沒有太多長期的歷史數據。產量差不多。費用結構有所不同。

It's less at the community level, more at the home -- individual home level, if you've got an actual dedicated BTR community.

與其說是社區層面的問題，不如說是家庭層面——或者說是單一家庭層面的問題，如果你有一個真正專門的租賃住宅社區的話。

But -- we do think that it is a niche, which is kind of where the puck is headed in terms of future demand. And so we are very consciously trying to increase the proportion of our portfolio that will access that demand -- they do tend to be older residents that do tend to stay longer. And over time, that should drive greater profitability.

但是──我們認為這是一個小眾市場，而這大概也是未來需求的發展方向。因此，我們正在有意識地努力提高我們投資組合中能夠滿足這種需求的比例——這些居民往往是年齡較大的居民，而且他們往往會居住更長時間。隨著時間的推移，這應該會帶來更高的獲利能力。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

Alexander Goldfarb，Piper Sandler。

Kevin, just a question for you on your commercial paper program. Traditionally, you guys have kept your credit line balance at 0. You've done prefunding for the development program. But since you launched the CP program a year ago, it's really definitely you've taken advantage of it, and it was -- it sort of jumped about $500 million from third quarter to fourth quarter.

凱文，關於你的商業票據項目，我有個問題想請教你。傳統上，你們一直將信用額度餘額維持在 0。你們已經為發展計畫完成了前期籌資。但自從你們一年前啟動了CP計畫以來，你們肯定已經充分利用了它，而且——從第三季度到第四季度，它增長了大約5億美元。

So -- is this sort of what you're using to help fund the development program? Or is this more like a warehousing for future bond deals? I know you guys just did a bond deal, but just trying to understand the CP program, which you're actively using versus traditionally the line of credit, which was almost always zero at quarter close.

所以——這就是你們用來資助發展計畫的資金來源嗎？或者這更像是為未來的債券交易進行儲備？我知道你們剛剛完成了一筆債券交易，但我只是想了解一下你們正在積極使用的商業票據計劃，而不是傳統的信貸額度，因為信貸額度在季度末幾乎總是為零。

Sure. Thanks, Alex. So it's Kevin. Yes, we -- in terms of our commercial paper program, we've had it for a little while. As you may recall, we increased the size of it when we renewed our line about nine months ago.

當然。謝謝你，亞歷克斯。原來是凱文。是的，就我們的商業票據計劃而言，我們已經實施了一段時間了。您可能還記得，大約九個月前我們更新生產線時，我們增加了它的尺寸。

And we did so very consciously because not only because of the relative attractive of short-term debt costs today, but importantly, because we felt there was room in our debt capital structure, particularly at this point in the cycle for more floating rate debt.

我們這樣做是經過深思熟慮的，不僅是因為目前短期債務成本相對具有吸引力，更重要的是，我們認為我們的債務資本結構還有空間，尤其是在當前經濟週期階段，可以容納更多的浮動利率債務。

And our other floating rate debt in our capital structure has slowly winnowed down to about $400 million to where it is today. and we'd like to have more in commercial paper just happens to represent the most attractive form of floating rate debt. So our view was that we wanted to make more room in our capital structure for a little more than $400 million of floating rate debt and the commercial paper was the most efficacious way of getting that.

我們資本結構中的其他浮動利率債務已逐漸減少至目前的約4億美元。我們希望增加商業票據的持有量，而商業票據恰好是目前最具吸引力的浮動利率債務形式。因此，我們的想法是，我們希望在資本結構中騰出更多空間，容納略多於 4 億美元的浮動利率債務，而商業票據是實現這一目標的最有效方式。

And so we upsized their commercial paper. And so you're seeing us probably run with a slightly higher level of persistent commercial paper balances as a consequence of that. So it's probably going to run at least in the $400 million to $500 million range, most every time flex up a little bit more or less depending on what's going on in our -- in fronting the business.

因此，我們提高了他們的商業票據規模。因此，您可能會看到我們持續性商業票據餘額略高一些。所以，它的預算可能至少會在 4 億到 5 億美元之間，每次都會根據我們公司業務的進展略有增減。

Okay. And then the second question is on stock buybacks versus development. I think in our numbers, we have you trading at sort of a high five supply cap, and you spoke about sort of low 6s on a development yield basis, it would almost seem like right now, the stock buyback is the more accretive use of capital. But as you mentioned in the guidance, there is nothing planned for stock buybacks. So can you just talk a little bit more about that, especially given your liquidity, would just seem like stock buybacks would be more advantageous in the near term given the current math, the spread between the 2.

好的。第二個問題是關於股票回購與研發的權衡。我認為根據我們的數據，你們的交易供應上限大約在 5 以上，而你們談到開發收益率大約在 6 左右，因此目前看來，股票回購似乎是更有利於資本增值的用途。但正如您在指導文件中提到的，目前沒有任何股票回購計畫。所以您能否再多談談這方面，特別是考慮到您的流動性，根據目前的計算結果，即兩者之間的利差，短期內股票回購似乎更有利。

Sure. So Alex, I'll say a couple of things, and Ben may want to chime in. Just from our point of view, our shares are terrifically attractively priced right now, probably in it puts a cap rate in the low 6% range. If you look at our development start activity that we planned for 2026, the expected yields on that are higher at 6.5% to 7%.

當然。所以Alex，我會說幾句，Ben可能也想插幾句。僅從我們的角度來看，我們目前的股票價格極具吸引力，可能資本化率在 6% 左右。如果你看看我們計劃在 2026 年啟動的開發活動，預計收益率會更高，達到 6.5% 至 7%。

So for us, the opportunity to developing or buyback activity isn't necessarily binary for us. We can do both. And as you saw last year, we did exactly that. So we do believe that the $800 million that we programmed in for this year starts are attractive. We also recognize that potentially doing additional buyback activity may make sense for us.

因此，對我們來說，開發或回購業務的機會並不一定是非此即彼的選擇。我們可以兩者兼顧。正如你們去年所看到的，我們正是這樣做的。因此，我們認為今年計劃投入的 8 億美元是很有吸引力的。我們也意識到，進行額外的股票回購活動對我們來說可能是有意義的。

But we've not woven into our plan for this year. It's something we'll look at as we proceed further into the year. But it's hard to sort of estimate what exactly you're going to get in terms of volume, price and so forth. And so our approach to that is likely to be more opportunistic, but we have the flexibility in the capital capacity to do both here.

但我們今年的計畫中還沒有納入這部分。這是我們今年後續工作會持續關注的問題。但是，很難準確估計您在數量、價格等方面會得到什麼。因此，我們採取的方法可能更偏向機會主義，但我們有足夠的資金靈活地同時做到這兩點。

Omotayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank.

Omotayo Okusanya，德意志銀行。

Just a quick one. I wanted to go back to Handel's question about the expansion market. And again, just given your outlook for those markets, how quickly you still think you might be growing over the next kind of one to three years in regards to export to those markets.

就簡單問一下。我想回到亨德爾關於市場擴張的問題上來。再次，鑑於您對這些市場的展望，您認為在未來一到三年內，您對這些市場的出口成長速度還能有多快？

Yes, it's a multiyear journey for us. As you know, we've been growing in our expansion markets now for seven or eight years. We're about halfway towards our target of 25% and then there are certain years where either because of deal opportunities or more importantly, the relative trade as we think about redeploying capital from our established regions into our expansion regions that has looked more attractive. So last year, we're pretty active on that front in terms of repositioning part of the portfolio.

是的，這對我們來說是一段長達數年的旅程。如您所知，我們在擴張市場已經發展了七、八年。我們距離 25% 的目標已經完成了一半左右，但有些年份，由於交易機會，或者更重要的是，由於我們考慮將資本從成熟地區重新部署到擴張地區，相對貿易情況看起來更有吸引力。所以去年，我們在重新調整部分投資組合方面相當積極。

For this year, as you've heard, we're planning generally less transaction activity. On the buying side, it would be very selective, particularly given the opportunities of using dispo proceeds to buy back our stock. And then from a development perspective, as Matt mentioned earlier, this year, we have a heavier weighting towards our established East Coast region.

正如你們所聽到的，今年我們計劃總體上減少交易活動。在收購方面，我們會非常謹慎，特別是考慮到可以利用處置所得款項回購我們自己的股票的機會。從發展角度來看，正如 Matt 之前提到的，今年我們將更加重視我們成熟的東海岸地區。

So not expecting this year to be sort of a meaningful movement, but we'll continue over a multiyear period headed in that direction towards our targets.

因此，我們並不指望今年會取得什麼實質的進展，但我們將繼續在未來幾年朝著這個方向努力，實現我們的目標。

As there are no further questions at this time, this now concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to Ben for closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題，我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我把發言權交還給本，讓他做總結發言。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate the questions and look forward to seeing you soon.

感謝各位今天蒞臨。感謝您的提問，期待很快與您見面。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's conference. Please disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位的參與。今天的會議到此結束。請斷開您的線路，祝您有美好的一天。