艾芙隆海灣社區公司 (AVB) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to AvalonBay Communities third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Your host for today's call is Mr. Jason Reilley, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Reilley, you may begin your conference call.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加 AvalonBay Communities 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明） 今天電話會議的主持人是投資者關係副總裁 Jason Reilley 先生。雷利先生，您可以開始電話會議了。

Thank you, Melissa, and welcome to AvalonBay Communities third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Before we begin, please note that forward-looking statements may be made during this discussion. There are a variety of risks and uncertainties associated with forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially. There is a discussion of these risks and uncertainties in yesterday afternoon's press release as well as in the company's Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filed with the SEC.

謝謝梅麗莎，歡迎參加 AvalonBay Communities 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。在我們開始之前，請注意，討論期間可能會做出前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述存在多種風險和不確定性，實際結果可能有重大差異。昨天下午的新聞稿以及公司向 SEC 提交的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格中討論了這些風險和不確定性。

As usual, the press release does include an attachment with definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures and other terms, which may be used in today's discussion. The attachment is also available on our website at www.avalonbay.com/earnings, and we encourage you to refer to this information during the review of our operating results and financial performance.

像往常一樣，新聞稿確實包含一個附件，其中包含非公認會計準則財務指標和其他術語的定義和調節，這些術語可能會在今天的討論中使用。此附件也可在我們的網站 www.avalonbay.com/earnings 上取得，我們鼓勵您在審查我們的經營業績和財務業績時參考此資訊。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Ben Schall, CEO and President of AvalonBay Communities for his remarks. Ben?

接下來，我將把電話轉給 AvalonBay Communities 執行長兼總裁 Ben Schall，聽取他的演講。本？

Thank you, Jason, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. I'm here with Kevin O'Shea, our Chief Financial Officer; Matt Birenbaum, our Chief Investment Officer; and Sean Breslin, our Chief Operating Officer. Sean and I have some prepared remarks, and then we'll open the line for questions. Per our practice, we posted a presentation in conjunction with our earnings release, which we will reference on today's call. I'd like to start today's call with an update on the four strategic priorities we highlighted during our Investor Day last November.

謝謝傑森，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我和我們的財務長 Kevin O'Shea 一起來到這裡。馬特‧比倫鮑姆 (Matt Birenbaum)，我們的首席投資長；以及我們的營運長肖恩·布雷斯林 (Sean Breslin)。我和肖恩準備了一些發言，然後我們將開通提問熱線。根據我們的慣例，我們在收益發布的同時發布了一份演示文稿，我們將在今天的電話會議上參考該簡報。我想以我們在去年 11 月投資者日期間強調的四個策略重點的最新情況來開始今天的電話會議。

As summarized on slide 4 of the earnings presentation, our organization has been laser focused on executing our plans in each one of these areas, confident that they will continue to deliver superior growth for shareholders.

正如收益簡報投影片 4 中所總結的那樣，我們的組織一直專注於執行我們在每個領域的計劃，相信它們將繼續為股東帶來卓越的成長。

First, as highlighted on slide 5, we continue to make meaningful progress in transforming our operating model and driving both operating efficiencies and incremental revenue. Last November, we raised our target to $80 million of annual incremental NOI to come as a result of these operating initiatives. We are tracking on plan, including further deployments of AvalonConnect and our neighborhood operating model, as well as advancements in our utilization of AI. By year-end, we expect to add another $10 million, bringing our total achievement to $37 million towards our $80 million target, highlighting both our strong progress to date and the significant runway of future earnings we expect to deliver over the coming years.

首先，正如幻燈片 5 所強調的那樣，我們在營運模式轉型以及提高營運效率和增量收入方面繼續取得有意義的進展。去年 11 月，我們將這些營運措施帶來的年度 NOI 增量目標提高到 8,000 萬美元。我們正在追蹤計劃，包括進一步部署 AvalonConnect 和我們的本地營運模型，以及我們對人工智慧的利用方面的進展。到年底，我們預計將再增加1000 萬美元，使我們的總成就達到3700 萬美元，實現8000 萬美元的目標，突顯我們迄今為止的強勁進展以及我們預計在未來幾年實現的未來盈利的重大進展。

Second, we continue to optimize our portfolio's future growth through proactive portfolio management and our strategy to increase our allocation to the suburbs and our expansion regions as summarized on slide 6. Our portfolio is now 73% suburban, up from 70% last year, and well positioned in the near term to benefit from steady demand and low levels of new supply, and in the long term, from shifting demographics, including aging millennials.

其次，我們透過積極的投資組合管理和增加對郊區和擴張區域的配置的策略，繼續優化投資組合的未來成長，如投影片 6 所示。目前，我們的投資組合中有73% 位於郊區，高於去年的70%，短期內可以從穩定的需求和低水平的新增供應中受益，從長遠來看，可以從人口結構的變化（包括老化的千禧世代）中受益。

We also continue to make steady progress toward our expansion region target of 25%, having now reached a 10% allocation. This year, we sold almost $600 million of assets, all from our established regions, half urban and half suburban, and reallocated that capital predominantly to suburban assets in our expansion regions at a very attractive basis as we look to further optimize and diversify our portfolio for the future. The third area that we detailed at our Investor Day was our unique development growth engine and our ability to consistently drive accretive external growth.

我們也繼續朝著 25% 的擴張區域目標穩步前進，目前已達到 10% 的分配。今年，我們出售了近6 億美元的資產，全部來自我們已建立的地區，一半是城市，一半是郊區，並以非常有吸引力的基礎將這些資本主要重新分配給我們擴張區域的郊區資產，因為我們希望進一步優化我們的投資組合併使其多樣化為了未來。我們在投資者日詳細介紹的第三個領域是我們獨特的發展成長引擎以及我們持續推動外部成長的能力。

As highlighted on slide 7, our 2024 completions have meaningfully outperformed our original underwriting, achieving a 6.5% yield, or 50 basis points above pro forma, generating additional earnings growth and value creation. We've increased our planned development starts for this year to nearly $1.1 billion, with a projected untrended initial stabilized yield of 6.3% on these projects which we consider to be well within our strike zone of generating 100 to 150 basis points of spread to both underlying cap rates and our cost of capital. Looking forward, we believe there could be an attractive window to further leverage our development capabilities and our cost of capital advantage to capture an outsized share of what's likely to be a lower overall level of new starts in the industry, which brings me to our fourth strategic priority, ensuring continuous access to cost-effective capital to fuel future growth.

正如幻燈片7 所強調的那樣，我們2024 年的竣工業績顯著優於我們最初的承保，實現了6.5% 的收益率，即比預估高出50 個基點，從而產生了額外的收益增長和價值創造。我們已將今年的計劃開發項目增加至近11 億美元，預計這些項目的未趨勢初始穩定收益率為6.3%，我們認為這些項目完全處於我們的目標區域內，即為雙方帶來100 至150 個基點的利差基本資本化率和我們的資本成本。展望未來，我們相信，可能存在一個有吸引力的窗口，可以進一步利用我們的開發能力和資本成本優勢，在行業整體新開工水平可能較低的情況下佔據巨大份額，這讓我想到了我們的第四個目標策略重點，確保持續獲得​​具有成本效益的資本，以推動未來的成長。

As highlighted on slide 8, our balance sheet is as strong as it's ever been, among the strongest in the REIT industry, and supported further by our recent forward equity activity, sourcing $850 million at an implied initial cost of approximately 5% to fund future accretive development.

正如幻燈片8 所強調的，我們的資產負債表一如既往地強勁，是房地產投資信託行業中最強大的資產負債表之一，並得到我們最近的遠期股權活動的進一步支持，以約5%隱含的初始成本籌集了8.5 億美元，為未來提供資金增值性發展。

We're committed to providing this type of follow-up to you at our Investor Day last year, and we're pleased to report out on the strong progress that we've made in each of these four strategic priorities over the last 12 months. We're confident these strategies will position AvalonBay for a continued superior growth in the quarters and years ahead. And as I transition to our Q3 results, I want to thank our 3,000 AvalonBay associates for their effort, collaboration and commitment to these strategic priorities and for delivering another strong quarter of results.

我們致力於在去年的投資者日向您提供此類後續行動，我們很高興地報告過去 12 個月我們在這四個戰略重點中每一項所取得的強勁進展。我們相信這些策略將使 AvalonBay 在未來幾季和幾年內實現持續的卓越成長。當我轉向第三季業績時，我要感謝 3,000 名 AvalonBay 員工對這些策略重點的努力、協作和承諾，並交付了另一個強勁的季度業績。

Slide 9 summarizes Q3 and year-to-date results and activities, with the headline being that we exceeded core FFO guidance for the quarter by $0.03 per share. We also started $450 million of new developments this quarter as part of our planned $1.1 billion of starts this year, a vintage of projects that should face less competition when they open for leasing in a couple of years.

第 9 張投影片總結了第三季和年初至今的業績和活動，標題是我們超越了本季核心 FFO 指引每股 0.03 美元。本季我們也啟動了 4.5 億美元的新開發項目，作為今年計劃啟動的 11 億美元項目的一部分，這一時期的項目在幾年後開放租賃時面臨的競爭應該會較少。

Based on our continued operating momentum, we increased our full year core FFO guidance for 2024 for the third time this year, to $11.04 per share, implying a peer-leading 3.9% core FFO growth rate as highlighted on slide 10. For our same-store portfolio, we continue to expect same-store revenue growth of 3.5%, and we lowered the midpoint of our same-store operating expense estimate by 30 basis points to 4.5%, which resulted in an increase in our same-store NOI guidance to 3% for the full year 2024.

基於我們持續的營運勢頭，我們今年第三次將 2024 年全年核心 FFO 指引上調至每股 11.04 美元，這意味著核心 FFO 成長率達到同業領先的 3.9%，如投影片 10 所示。對於我們的同店投資組合，我們繼續預計同店收入增長 3.5%，並且我們將同店營運費用預估中位數下調 30 個基點至 4.5%，這導致我們的同店收入增長將2024 年全年NOI 指導值維持在3%。

Sean will now speak to our performance in more detail, our momentum in Q4 and our building blocks as we head into 2025. Sean?

Sean 現在將更詳細地介紹我們的業績、第四季的勢頭以及邁入 2025 年的基石。肖恩？

All right. Thanks, Ben. Moving to slide 11 to address recent portfolio trends. Third quarter performance was strong, and our same-store portfolio is well positioned heading into the slower leasing season. Turnover continues to trend well below historical norms, which is typically around 55% on a full year basis, driven in part by a substantially lower volume of move-outs to [purchase a home] in our established regions which remains at record lows.

好的。謝謝，本。轉到投影片 11，討論最近的投資組合趨勢。第三季業績強勁，我們的同店投資組合在進入放緩的租賃季節時處於有利位置。成交量持續遠低於歷史水平，全年通常約為 55% 左右，部分原因是我們成熟地區的遷出量大幅減少（購屋），且仍處於歷史低點。

Additionally, economic occupancy has increased from the mid summer low point, and we expect it to remain relatively stable during Q4. Turning to slide 12. During our midyear earnings call, I mentioned the possibility of a reacceleration in asking rent and rent change given softer comps from Q4 2023. We're now starting to see that trend come to fruition. In the chart on the left, asking rent growth during the year has followed traditional seasonal curves and outperformed our experience throughout 2023.

此外，經濟入住率已從仲夏低點上升，我們預計第四季將保持相對穩定。轉到投影片 12。在我們的年中財報電話會議上，我提到考慮到 2023 年第四季的比較疲軟，可能會重新加速要求租金和租金變化。我們現在開始看到這種趨勢正在實現。在左圖中，年內的租金成長要價遵循傳統的季節性曲線，並且優於我們在 2023 年全年的經驗。

Recently, the level of outperformance has widened, and as of November 1, the average asking rent for our same-store portfolio was approximately 3% greater than the same date last year, with the East Coast roughly 4% higher and the West Coast about 2%. The higher average asking rent will flow through to improved rent change, particularly for new move-ins as we look forward. Currently, we're forecasting rent change in November to be stronger than October and increased further as we move through December.

最近，表現優異的水平有所擴大，截至 11 月 1 日，我們同店組合的平均租金要價比去年同期高出約 3%，其中東海岸約高出 4%，西海岸約高出 4%。 。較高的平均租金要價將導致租金變化的改善，特別是對於我們預期的新搬入者。目前，我們預測 11 月的租金變化將強於 10 月，並隨著 12 月的到來而進一步增加。

Moving to slide 13 and the outlook for 2025 revenue growth. We expect healthy job and wage growth, a financially well-positioned renter and relatively unaffordable for-sale housing alternatives will all support steady demand for our apartment homes in the year ahead.

前往投影片 13 和 2025 年營收成長前景。我們預計健康的就業和工資增長、財務狀況良好的租戶以及相對難以負擔的待售住房選擇都將支持未來一年對我們公寓的穩定需求。

In chart one on slide 13, renters in our established coastal regions have experienced strong wage growth over the last several years. So rent-to-income ratios have actually declined and are currently about 10% below where they were at the beginning of 2020. This is important in understanding the potential capacity of renters to pay higher rents, all else being equal.

在幻燈片 13 的圖表一中，我們成熟的沿海地區的租屋者在過去幾年中經歷了強勁的薪資成長。因此，租金與收入之比實際上已經下降，目前比 2020 年初的水平低約 10%。在其他條件相同的情況下，這對於了解租屋者支付更高租金的潛在能力非常重要。

Moving to chart two, renting an apartment in our established regions continues to be much more affordable than owning a home, with the spread being the widest we've ever seen. This lack of affordable for-sale alternatives should continue to support a lower level of resident turnover and a greater propensity for new households to rent versus own.

轉向圖二，在我們成熟的地區租一套公寓仍然比擁有一套房子便宜得多，而且差距是我們所見過的最廣泛的。由於缺乏負擔得起的待售替代品，應繼續導致居民流動率較低，以及新家庭租房而不是自置的傾向更大。

Moving to slide 14 and the outlook for supply. Our established coastal regions are expected to see new deliveries of 1.4% of existing stock in 2025, roughly 100 basis points lower than what's forecast for the Sunbelt which is already facing a challenging operating environment, given the record level of deliveries over the past year. Our same-store portfolio will further benefit from being roughly 70% suburban, where deliveries are expected to be roughly 1% of stock in 2025. Overall, we believe our portfolio is well insulated from the impact of excessive new supply in 2025. Turning to slide 15.

轉到投影片 14 和供應前景。鑑於過去一年的交付量創歷史新高，預計到2025 年，我們已建立的沿海地區的新交付量將佔現有庫存的1.4%，比陽光地帶的預測低約100 個基點，而陽光地帶已經面臨著充滿挑戰的營運環境。我們的同店投資組合將進一步受益於約 70% 的郊區，預計 2025 年交付量將佔庫存的 1% 左右。總體而言，我們相信我們的投資組合能夠很好地免受 2025 年新增供應過多的影響。轉到投影片 15。

I'll address the building blocks for revenue growth in 2025. First, we're projecting embedded revenue growth, or the earn-in, to be roughly 1.1%, or approximately 10 basis points greater than where we started 2024. Second, we've estimated that underlying bad debt from residents will improve by roughly 60 basis points from 2023 to 2024, and it has improved on a year-over-year basis in each quarter so far this year. While we haven't yet completed our forecast for 2025, we expect continued improvement in underlying bad debt throughout the upcoming year. And third, we expect to again produce strong other rental revenue growth during the coming year. While we don't expect the growth rate to be quite as strong as the roughly 15% increase we're forecasting for 2024, it should still contribute meaningfully to overall revenue growth for 2025.

我將討論 2025 年營收成長的基石。首先，我們預期嵌入式營收成長或獲利將約為 1.1%，即比 2024 年開始時高出約 10 個基點。其次，我們預計，從2023年到2024年，居民的潛在壞帳將改善約60個基點，而且今年迄今每季都較去年同期有所改善。雖然我們尚未完成 2025 年的預測，但我們預計未來一年基本壞帳將持續改善。第三，我們預計來年其他租金收入將再次強勁成長。雖然我們預期成長率不會像我們預測的 2024 年約 15% 的增幅那麼強勁，但它仍會對 2025 年的整體營收成長做出有意義的貢獻。

Moving to the outlook for operating expense growth on slide 16. We expect overall operating expense pressures to moderate as we move into 2025. In terms of some of the key drivers, the impact from the expiration of tax abatement programs, notably the 421-a program in New York City, will still be present but eased in 2025. Additionally, given our AvalonConnect offering will be substantially deployed across the portfolio, the impact on our utilities expense in 2025 will be materially less than what we experienced in 2024.

前往投影片 16 上的營運費用成長前景。我們預計，隨著 2025 年的到來，整體營運支出壓力將有所緩解。就一些關鍵驅動因素而言，減稅計劃（尤其是紐約市的 421-a 計劃）到期的影響仍將存在，但將在 2025 年有所緩解。此外，鑑於我們的 AvalonConnect 產品將在整個產品組合中大量部署，2025 年對我們公用事業支出的影響將大大小於 2024 年的影響。

Most other categories are expected to grow modestly as we look to 2025. Now I'll turn it back to Ben for some more summary comments before we open it up to Q&A. Ben?

展望 2025 年，大多數其他類別預計將溫和成長。現在，在我們進行問答之前，我會將其轉回給 Ben，以獲取更多總結性評論。本？

Thanks, Sean. To quickly summarize, Q3 results exceeded our expectations and supported a further increase to our full year earnings guidance. Our outlook heading into 2025 looks healthy, particularly given the fundamentals in our established regions. We're leaning further into development, a powerful driver of differentiated earnings growth and value creation. And we will continue to execute as an organization on a set of strategic priorities that we are confident will continue to deliver superior growth for shareholders.

謝謝，肖恩。簡而言之，第三季的業績超出了我們的預期，並支持我們進一步提高全年獲利指引。我們對 2025 年的前景看起來很健康，特別是考慮到我們既定地區的基本面。我們進一步傾向於發展，這是差異化獲利成長和價值創造的強大驅動力。作為一個組織，我們將繼續執行一系列策略重點，我們相信這些策略重點將繼續為股東帶來卓越的成長。

And with that, I'll turn it to the operator to facilitate questions.

然後，我會將其轉給接線員以方便提問。

(Operator Instructions) Eric Wolfe, Citi.

（操作員指示）Eric Wolfe，花旗銀行。

You mentioned that deliveries as a percentage of stock should be around 1.4% next year, which I think is down a little bit from this year. Just based on what you're seeing on the ground, your pro formas, like where do you think that percentage could go over the next couple of years? I'm just trying to understand how supply risk might change, especially as you're increasing your Sunbelt concentration?

您提到明年的交貨量佔庫存的比例應該在 1.4% 左右，我認為比今年略有下降。僅根據您在實地看到的情況以及您的預估，您認為未來幾年該百分比會達到什麼水平？我只是想了解供應風險可能會如何變化，特別是當您增加陽光地帶的集中度時？

Yes, Eric, this is Sean. I can comment and then Matt or others can certainly speak to it as well. But as it relates to our (inaudible) coastal regions, first for 2025, we're expecting a reduction in delivery across those regions with the one exception being New York City, which actually is forecast to have a slight uptick. It's not material but a slight uptick in deliveries in 2025. As it relates to where they settle beyond that, what I'd say is, and Matt can speak to this further, is the development climate certainly has been challenging for a number of reasons, given what we've seen in construction costs, what's been happening with capital cost and the impact, particularly on merchant builders across our region.

是的，埃里克，這是肖恩。我可以發表評論，然後馬特或其他人當然也可以發表評論。但由於它與我們的（聽不清楚）沿海地區有關，首先是 2025 年，我們預計這些地區的交付量將減少，但紐約市除外，實際上預計該地區的交付量將略有上升。這並不重要，但 2025 年的交付量略有上升。因為這關係到他們在此之後的定居點，我想說的是，馬特可以進一步討論這一點，考慮到我們在建築成本方面所看到的情況，開發環境肯定因多種原因而充滿挑戰。資本成本及其影響一直在發生，特別是對我們地區的商業建築商而言。

So given the fact that starts have come down and the fact that the gestation period for construction in our coastal markets is fairly lengthy given the product type it wouldn't be a surprise to see deliveries for our, again, coastal established regions to continue to trend down over the next couple of years. Given what we've seen in terms of starts activity and the underwriting associated with new projects in those same regions.

因此，考慮到開工率已經下降，考慮到產品類型，我們沿海市場的建設醞釀期相當長，因此，我們的沿海成熟地區的交付量繼續增加也就不足為奇了。 。考慮到我們在這些地區的新項目的開工活動和承保情況。

So hopefully, that answers your question.

希望這能回答你的問題。

That's helpful. And then for the four Sunbelt apartments project you started this quarter, could you just talk about the underwritten yields on those and how you're looking at the value creation or margin on those projects? And I guess for Austin, specifically, it's certainly been a market that I think people expect supply to weigh on it for a little while. So just curious if there's something specific about that project that lets you get to a higher yield than maybe the overall market would achieve?

這很有幫助。對於您本季啟動的四個 Sunbelt 公寓項目，您能否談談這些項目的承保收益率以及您如何看待這些項目的價值創造或利潤率？我想，特別是對於奧斯汀來說，我認為人們預計供應將在一段時間內對其造成壓力。所以只是好奇該項目是否有一些特定的東西可以讓您獲得比整個市場更高的收益？

Sure. Eric, this is Matt. I can speak to that one. So we did start four deals this quarter, all of which were in expansion regions, two in North Carolina, two in Texas. And those deals are underwriting on today's rents to around a 6, which would be on the tighter end of our range of development yields, I think our development starts for the year across the whole book is more like low to [mid-6 ,6.3%].

當然。埃里克，這是馬特。我可以和那個人說話。因此，我們本季確實啟動了四筆交易，所有交易都在擴張地區，其中兩筆在北卡羅來納州，兩筆在德克薩斯州。這些交易將今天的租金承保至 6 左右，這將是我們開發收益率範圍的較窄端，我認為我們今年的開發開工率在整本書中更像是低至[6 中，6.3%]。

So it'd be at the lower end of that range, but still well in excess of our cost of capital and well in excess of where we think cap rates or assets would be trading. Every deal is different. So there are unique characteristics. The deal that we started in Austin, that's a parcel of land that we've owned for a couple of years, and it's the first phase of what could be eventually 1300 or 1,400 unit garden deal. So it's -- there are some unusual costs loaded into the first phase because we're front-loading a lot of the infrastructure and amenities of what's really going to be kind of a signature community for us in that market.

因此，它會處於該範圍的下限，但仍然遠遠超過我們的資本成本，也遠遠超過我們認為資本化率或資產交易的水平。每筆交易都是不同的。所以有獨特的特點。我們在奧斯汀開始的交易是我們擁有幾年的一塊土地，它是最終可能有 1300 或 1,400 單位花園交易的第一階段。所以，第一階段會產生一些不尋常的成本，因為我們正在預先加載大量基礎設施和便利設施，這些基礎設施和便利設施實際上將成為我們在該市場上的標誌性社區。

And that's our first start. Our first investment in Austin. We've identified Austin as one of our expansion regions really for four or five years, but have been pretty cautious about it up until now. But we're pretty bullish about the timing of that start in particular because we think it's a nice match between hitting the low point on hard costs, which have come down -- on that deal, hard costs are down double digits compared to where they would have been 18 months ago when we could have started the deal when it was first ready to start. And when you think about that asset won't be in lease up until '26. And we feel by that point, we should be facing very little new competition and with the basis that we like quite a bit.

這是我們的第一次開始。我們在奧斯汀的第一筆投資。四、五年來，我們一直將奧斯汀確定為我們的擴張區域之一，但到目前為止，我們對此一直非常謹慎。但我們對啟動的時機特別樂觀，因為我們認為這是硬成本達到最低點之間的一個很好的匹配，硬成本已經下降——在這筆交易中，硬成本比之前下降了兩位數。本來我們可以在18 個月前開始交易，當時交易剛準備好開始。當你想到該資產要到 26 年前才會出租。我們覺得到那時，我們應該面臨很少的新競爭，並且擁有我們非常喜歡的基礎。

Eric, I'll add a couple of additional comments to your question on sort of relative positioning. As we think about leaning into external growth and development today, one is the cost of capital advantage, right. We've got a cost of capital advantage relative to our private sector competitors.

埃里克，我將在您關於相對定位的問題中添加一些附加評論。當我們今天考慮轉向外部成長和發展時，其中之一就是資本優勢的成本，對吧。相對於私部門的競爭對手，我們具有資本成本優勢。

And the second is we are increasingly able to drive incremental yield from our new investments, both on acquisitions and development. And a lot of that goes from taking our operating model transformation and those initiatives and bringing those to new investments. And so obviously, project-specific and submarket specific, but in a lot of these projects, we're able to generate 30 to 40 basis points of incremental yield by tapping into that strategic set of capabilities.

其次，我們越來越有能力從收購和開發的新投資中提高收益。其中很大一部分來自於我們的營運模式轉型和這些措施並將其引入新的投資。顯然，針對特定專案和特定子市場，但在許多這樣的專案中，我們能夠透過利用這組策略能力來產生 30 到 40 個基點的增量收益。

Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.

傑米·費爾德曼，富國銀行。

I guess sticking with development, can you talk about your thoughts, your early thoughts on what's in the pipeline that you could possibly start in '25? And I guess, just kind of continuing with a similar discussion with the starts you've done all in the Sunbelt, I mean, clearly, Sunbelt is recovering from a supply [glut], but whose to say it can't happen again. The Austin project certainly sounds unique. But can you just talk through how you think you can navigate development in the Sunbelt better differently than people who are facing a lot of supply here as we just think about the longer term based on the projects you're starting?

我想堅持發展，你能談談你的想法，你對你可能在 25 年開始的計劃的早期想法嗎？我想，只是繼續與您在陽光地帶所做的一切開始進行類似的討論，我的意思是，顯然，陽光地帶正在從供應[過剩]中恢復，但誰敢說這種情況不會再次發生。奧斯汀項目聽起來確實很獨特。但是，您能否談談您認為如何以不同於這裡面臨大量供應的人們的方式更好地引導陽光地帶的發展，因為我們只是根據您正在啟動的項目來考慮長期目標？

Yes. Jamie, I guess I can speak to that one. This is Matt. When we look at our '25 starts book, and we do think that we have an opportunity to increase our start volume further in '25, could be a range, and we're not providing guidance at this moment. But we could certainly see increasing our start activity next year to something on either side of a range of about [$1.5 billion] from [$1.50 billion] this year.

是的。傑米，我想我可以和那個人談談。這是馬特。當我們查看我們的 25 年開工手冊時，我們確實認為我們有機會在 25 年進一步增加我們的開工量，這可能是一個範圍，但我們目前不提供指導。但我們肯定會看到明年的啟動活動從今年的 [15 億美元] 增加到約 [15 億美元] 左右。

So we are ramping it up, partially in response to what Ben was talking about where we think we can get a greater share of a lesser number of starts given our balance sheet and our capital position and the capabilities we bring to it. And it's really a mix. So I think this year, our start activity will be about 40% to 45% in the expansion regions. Probably be similar to that, maybe a little less as a percentage next year. So we do have a couple of starts on the West Coast where development economics have been under pressure for quite a few years.

因此，我們正在加大力度，部分是為了回應本所說的，考慮到我們的資產負債表、資本狀況以及我們為其帶來的能力，我們認為我們可以在較少的開工數量中獲得更大的份額。這確實是一個混合體。所以我認為今年我們的啟動活動將有 40% 到 45% 左右在擴張區域。可能與此類似，明年的百分比可能會少一些。因此，我們在西海岸確實有一些起步，那裡的發展經濟學多年來一直面臨壓力。

We're starting to see green shoots there, both on the operating side and on the hard cost side, some pretty significant savings. So we have a large deal. We could start next year in San Diego. We might wind up starting a deal in the East Bay. We have a garden deal in Denver.

我們開始看到那裡的萌芽，無論是在營運方面還是在硬成本方面，都節省了相當可觀的成本。所以我們有一件大事。我們可以明年在聖地牙哥開始。我們最終可能會在東灣開始一項交易。我們在丹佛有一筆花園交易。

That would be in an expansion region. We have more kind of higher yield business to start in New Jersey, a deal here in the Mid-Atlantic, opportunities in Boston, a deal in Palm Beach County in Florida. So it's a mix. I would say the product tends to be lower density garden kind of simpler construction. That's where it tends to be working better right now.

那將是在一個擴張區域。我們在新澤西州有更多類型的高收益業務可以啟動，在大西洋中部有一筆交易，在波士頓有機會，在佛羅裡達州棕櫚灘縣有一筆交易。所以這是一個混合體。我想說的是，該產品往往是密度較低、結構更簡單的花園。這就是它目前效果更好的地方。

And more likely it will be in more in the expansion regions or some of our -- I'm sorry, in the established regions or some of our expansion regions Denver and Florida, in particular, Southeast Florida assets are trading more generally above replacement cost there. There's probably a little more pressure in North Carolina and Texas, and that's where it really does depend on the product and the submarket and the specific dynamics of the site you're looking at.

更有可能的是，它會更多地發生在擴張地區或我們的一些地區——對不起，在成熟地區或我們的一些擴張地區丹佛和佛羅裡達，特別是佛羅裡達州東南部的資產交易普遍高於重置成本那裡。北卡羅來納州和德克薩斯州的壓力可能更大一些，這確實取決於產品、子市場以及您正在查看的網站的具體動態。

Okay. That's very helpful, impressive, $1.5 billion number. I guess just switching gears to expenses. We appreciate the detailed line-by-line view for next year. I guess, two ways to ask the question. One is just focusing on insurance specifically. I mean clearly, a lot is happening in Florida -- that happened in Florida. What gives you confidence that insurance can go lower in '25? And then also just if you were to boil down this third column on the right, do you think your expense growth rate is higher or lower in '25 than '24, if you're even able to answer that question.

好的。這是一個非常有幫助、令人印象深刻的數字，價值 15 億美元。我想只是切換到支出方面。我們很欣賞明年的詳細逐行視圖。我想，有兩種提問方式。一是專門關注保險。我的意思很明確，佛羅裡達州正在發生很多事情——發生在佛羅裡達州。是什麼讓您相信保險在 25 年會降低？然後，如果您將右側的第三列歸結起來，您認為 25 年的費用成長率是高於還是低於 24 年（如果您能夠回答這個問題）。

Jamie, this is Kevin. I'll start on insurance and Sean will probably follow on the broader look on OpEx for next year. So in terms of insurance, this year's expected insurance expense increase of about 10%, just to kind of give you some context. Its being driven primarily by increases in property insurance premiums and losses where the premium increases from property related to our May 2023 renewal that continue to affect us earlier this year. But we had a roughly flat property renewal in May of this year, very successful in that regard, partly due to the kind of the [abatement] or decline in insurance premium pressures in that property insurance market relative to prior years.

傑米，這是凱文。我將從保險開始，肖恩可能會關註明年的營運支出。所以在保險方面，今年預計保險費用將成長約 10%，只是提供一些背景資訊給大家。其主要驅動因素是財產保險保費和損失的增加，其中與我們 2023 年 5 月續保相關的財產保費增加，今年稍早繼續影響我們。但今年 5 月，我們的財產續保大致持平，在這方面非常成功，部分原因是財產保險市場的保費壓力相對於前幾年有所[減輕]或下降。

And that flat property renewal this past May provided some relief from the impact of higher premiums in this year's numbers and into next year. As we move into 2025, we just see based on what's going on in the various insurance markets that we have a continued movement towards stabilization and program costs, as we look to renew property and other types of insurance next year, such that we expect to generally renew those at more typical growth rates. Our property renewal is in May. And as you know, we have very little exposure to the high-risk areas where there have been problems such as in Florida, where we have limited exposure to Southeast Florida, where there's concrete construction and generally have more of a coastal footprint. So we've been insulated from a lot of those pressures as well.

今年五月的公寓房產更新在一定程度上緩解了今年和明年保費上漲的影響。隨著我們進入 2025 年，我們看到根據各個保險市場的情況，我們將繼續朝著穩定和計劃成本的方向發展，因為我們希望明年更新財產和其他類型的保險，因此我們預計通常以更典型的成長率更新它們。我們的房產更新是在五月。如您所知，我們很少接觸那些有問題的高風險地區，例如佛羅裡達州，我們對佛羅裡達州東南部的接觸有限，那裡有混凝土建築，通常有更多的沿海足跡。所以我們也免受了很多這樣的壓力。

The only exception we see with respect to insurance is liability insurance, which has seen some above average premium increases, but fortunately, liability insurance comprises less than 1/4 of our overall total insurance spend. So as a result, when you put it together and look at insurance costs for next year, while it's still early, we currently expect our overall insurance cost to be more in the mid- to high single-digit range for next year, which is closer to more normal levels for us.

我們在保險方面看到的唯一例外是責任保險，其保費增幅高於平均水平，但幸運的是，責任保險占我們總保險支出的不到 1/4。因此，當你將其放在一起並考慮明年的保險成本時，雖然現在還為時過早，但我們目前預計明年的整體保險成本將更多地處於中高個位數範圍內，即對我們來說更接近正常水平。

Jamie, as it relates to the broader question about the direction of OpEx growth in 2025, relative to 2024's growth rate. Yes, the purpose of the slide was to give you some general sense that we do expect the growth rates to ease in 2025 relative to 2024 and the main callouts as it relates to that are items that are relatively well known. For example, the 421-a in other pilot programs. That's about an 80 basis point impact on the 2024 overall growth rate that will diminish somewhat as we get into 2025. In terms of our operating initiatives, AvalonConnect will be pretty much 90% deployed by year-end '24.

Jamie，因為它涉及 2025 年營運支出相對於 2024 年成長率的成長方向這一更廣泛的問題。是的，這張投影片的目的是讓您有一些普遍的認識，即我們確實預計 2025 年的成長率相對於 2024 年會有所放緩，並且與此相關的主要標註是相對眾所周知的項目。例如其他試點項目中的421-a。這對 2024 年整體成長率產生約 80 個基點的影響，隨著進入 2025 年，這種影響將會減弱。就我們的營運計畫而言，到 2024 年年底，AvalonConnect 的部署率將達到近 90%。

There'll still be some roll-through of leases in '25, but the gross impact of that in 2024 on total OpEx growth was 120 basis points. That's the forecast. So that will come down. Just those two items alone will lead to some easing there. We don't see pressure points in the various other categories that would overcome the impact of those two items as an example. So we do expect growth rates to come down '25 relative to '24.

25 年仍會有一些租賃延期，但 2024 年對總營運支出成長的整體影響為 120 個基點。這就是預測。所以這會下降。僅這兩項就將導致那裡的一些寬鬆。例如，我們在其他各種類別中沒有看到可以克服這兩個項目影響的壓力點。因此，我們確實預計 25 年成長率將比 24 年有所下降。

Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley.

亞當‧克萊默，摩根士丹利。

I wanted to look at the kind of projection for improvement in lease growth in November and December. I guess just maybe kind of whether it's just easy comps or kind of what are the other maybe indications or things you're seeing in the portfolio today that kind of give you the confidence that anything could reaccelerate here in the last two months of the year relative to October?

我想了解 11 月和 12 月租賃成長改善的預測。我想這可能只是簡單的比較，還是您今天在投資組合中看到的其他可能的跡像或事情，這讓您有信心，在今年的最後兩個月裡，任何事情都可能重新加速相對於十月？

Yes, Adam, this is Sean. I can take that one. So first, in terms of high-level strategy for us, as I mentioned on the midyear call, we had a nice run up in occupancy at the beginning of the year kind of throughout the first quarter. And so we started pushing hard as it related to rate growth and we were able to do that through Q2 and most of Q3, which is the time when you want to do that given the heavy lease expiration volume. Roughly 60% of our leases expire during those two quarters.

是的，亞當，這是肖恩。我可以接受那個。首先，就我們的高層策略而言，正如我在年中電話會議上提到的那樣，我們在年初的整個第一季的入住率都有不錯的成長。因此，我們開始大力推動，因為這與利率成長有關，我們能夠在第二季和第三季的大部分時間裡做到這一點，考慮到租賃到期量很大，這是你想要這樣做的時間。我們大約 60% 的租約在這兩個季度到期。

So that's when you want to get it. But in terms of overall strategy then, as you get into September and October, you do want to sort of stabilize occupancy as you head in the slower leasing season. So as we move through September into October, you saw that in terms of the deceleration, particularly on the new move-in side. So that was part of the broader strategy. As it relates to where we are today, occupancy is relatively stable.

所以這就是你想要得到它的時候。但就整體策略而言，隨著進入九月和十月，您確實希望在租賃季節放緩的情況下穩定入住率。因此，當我們從 9 月進入 10 月時，您會看到減速，特別是在新入住方面。所以這是更廣泛戰略的一部分。就我們今天的情況而言，入住率相對穩定。

And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, given the softer comp in terms of where asking rents were in Q4 of 2023, relative to where they are as of now, asking rents are about 3% higher than where they were last year. So where we are signing leases currently is presenting a nice spread on the move-in side.

正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，考慮到 2023 年第四季的租金要價相對於目前而言較為疲軟，租金要價比去年高出約 3%。因此，我們目前簽署的租約在入住方面呈現出不錯的價差。

So as we look forward, October blended rent change was 1.2%. We see it ticking up into the high 1% range for November and then the mid-2s in December. Our expectation is that all of that is really on the backs of new move-ins, which were down about 180 basis points in October, but we expect that to flip to be modestly positive in November and a little over 100 basis points in December.

因此，正如我們預期的那樣，10 月綜合租金變化為 1.2%。我們預計 11 月指數將升至 1% 的高位，然後在 12 月升至 2% 左右。我們的預期是，所有這一切實際上都是在新的搬入的支持下進行的，10 月份下降了約180 個基點，但我們預計11 月份將出現小幅正值，12 月份將略高於100 個基點。

Renewal offers were already out. We negotiate with residents. So for the most part, what you're going to see is the improvement coming on new move-ins as we move through November and December, given where asking rents are today.

續訂優惠已經出來了。我們與居民協商。因此，在大多數情況下，考慮到今天的租金要價，隨著 11 月和 12 月的到來，您將看到新入住的情況有所改善。

That's really helpful. And maybe along similar lines, kind of a forward-looking question here just on the bad debt improvement. So it looks like 170 basis points is kind of the forecast for this year. I know it's still early. I know it's a tough line item to maybe make a call or per day, but just maybe a sense of the -- and whether it's the level of bad debt that you can get to next year or even the other way of asking it is just how long could it take? Will it take potentially to get back to the pre-COVID of bogey level of bad debt as you think about next year and going forward?

這真的很有幫助。也許沿著類似的思路，這裡有一個關於壞帳改善的前瞻性問題。因此，今年的預測似乎是 170 個基點。我知道現在還早。我知道這可能是一個艱難的項目，可能打電話或每天，但也許只是一種感覺 - 以及是否是你明年可以達到的壞賬水平，甚至是其他詢問方式只是需要多長時間？當您考慮明年和未來時，壞帳是否有可能回到新冠疫情前的可怕水平？

Yes, good question. And everyone has probably a different crystal ball on that one of which probably none of ours are 100% accurate. Just given the nature of the issue, which is really highly dependent upon various things outside of our control in the various regions. So obviously, we've seen a nice improvement as it relates to the performance this year coming down, roughly 60 basis points year-over-year from 2022 to 2023, it come down 140 basis points. So a more significant improvement.

是的，好問題。每個人可能都有一個不同的水晶球，其中可能沒有一個是 100% 準確的。鑑於問題的性質，這實際上高度依賴於各個地區我們無法控制的各種因素。顯然，我們看到了一個不錯的改善，因為它與今年的業績下降有關，從 2022 年到 2023 年，同比下降了約 60 個基點，下降了 140 個基點。所以有了更顯著的改進。

My expectation is that by the time we get through 2025, we're probably not back to a fully stabilized or normalized level, but we're making good progress towards it. And what we use to sort of estimate that is the volume of [skips] and (inaudible) that we see through the portfolio. So for example, we saw a 300-plus evictions in the third quarter. We have about 1,300 accounts that are still sort of sitting out there that are needed to be processed through either a (inaudible) or (inaudible) situation. So it's certainly, at that run rate, it's certainly at least a year. My guess is more likely a little bit more than that. So it's probably as you get into 2026, that we would start to see some normalization as opposed to expecting that to occur in 2025.

我的預期是，到 2025 年，我們可能還沒有回到完全穩定或正常化的水平，但我們正在朝著這一目標取得良好進展。我們用來估計的是我們透過投資組合看到的[跳過]和（聽不清楚）的數量。例如，我們在第三季看到了 300 多人被驅逐。我們有大約 1,300 個帳戶仍然閒置在那裡，需要透過（聽不清楚）或（聽不清楚）的情況進行處理。所以，照這個運行速度，肯定至少要一年。我的猜測很可能比這個多一點。因此，進入 2026 年，我們可能會開始看到一些正常化，而不是預期在 2025 年發生。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

Steve Sakwa，Evercore ISI。

I think, Sean, you mentioned that renewals were out for November, December, but I don't think you quoted a figure on those. Could you share that? And I guess, just how much negotiation is going on kind of on those renewals today versus maybe what's happened over the last six to nine months?

我想，肖恩，您提到 11 月、12 月的續訂已到期，但我認為您沒有引用相關數字。能分享一下嗎？我想，與過去六到九個月發生的情況相比，今天就這些續約進行了多少談判？

Yes. I mean what I can tell you is our expectation for November and December, I talked about the move-ins. On the renewals, we're expecting renewal achievement to be in the high 3% range for both November and December based on what we already know today, that signed as well as the expectation for negotiation spreads. So where those renewals went out, it's kind of irrelevant at this point. It's more kind of where they're trending and that's our expectation for November and December as high (inaudible)

是的。我的意思是我可以告訴你的是我們對 11 月和 12 月的期望，我談到了搬入的問題。在續約方面，根據我們今天已知的情況、簽署的情況以及對談判利差的預期，我們預計 11 月和 12 月的續約成就將在 3% 的高位範圍內。因此，這些續訂在哪裡進行，目前已經無關緊要。這更像是他們的趨勢，這是我們對 11 月和 12 月的預期（聽不清楚）

Okay. And then, Kevin, I know you have the forward equity that's kind of sitting out there. Are we just assuming, given Matt's comments about the accelerating development pipeline that the forward equity is basically used to partially fund development opportunities versus acquisitions?

好的。然後，凱文，我知道你擁有遠期資產。鑑於馬特關於加速開發管道的評論，我們是否只是假設遠期股權基本上用於部分開發機會而不是收購？

Yes, that's correct, Steve. That was what our intention was when we executed the forward equity deal back in early September. It was intended to support an elevated level development starts next year. So we don't anticipate issuing the shares under the forward this year, but expect to do so next year as we kind of ramp development starts.

是的，沒錯，史蒂夫。這就是我們九月初執行遠期股權交易時的意圖。其目的是支持明年開始的更高水準的開發。因此，我們預計今年不會發行遠期股票，但預計明年我們將開始進行斜坡開發。

Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Austin Wurschmidt，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Just going back to new starts in the expansion markets and the fact that you underwrite on current yields, I mean, should we read into this that you think rents have bottomed in those expansion regions, at least within the submarkets you're developing? Or that, I guess, any additional pullback would be short-lived?

回到擴張市場的新開端以及您承保當前收益率的事實，我的意思是，我們是否應該對此進行解讀，您認為這些擴張區域的租金已經觸底，至少在您正在開發的子市場內？或者，我猜，任何額外的回調都會是短暫的？

Yes, Austin, it's Matt. I think the reason why we underwrite on an untrended basis is we feel that, that's pretty conservative that on average, over time, rents grow. So we're not counting on that trending of the rents to make the deal work. We wouldn't start a deal that only works because of trended rents as opposed to the current rents. So we're comfortable with our yield and our basis on those deals we're starting now in today's environment.

是的，奧斯汀，我是馬特。我認為我們在無趨勢的基礎上承保的原因是我們認為，這相當保守，平均而言，隨著時間的推移，租金會增長。因此，我們並不指望租金的趨勢來使交易成功。我們不會啟動一項僅因趨勢租金而不是當前租金而有效的交易。因此，我們對我們的收益率以及我們在當今環境下開始的交易的基礎感到滿意。

And then it's really -- everybody can have their own view on what happens going forward. I would say any [deal] we're starting now, we're probably not leasing it for two years or maybe 1.5 years. So I do think that in almost every case, we would think markets by that time should have positive momentum to them. What happens between now and then, it's going to vary from market to market. And honestly, that's probably more relevant for our acquisitions in our development.

然後，每個人都可以對未來發生的事情有自己的看法。我想說，我們現在開始的任何[交易]，我們可能不會租賃它兩年或 1.5 年。所以我確實認為，幾乎在所有情況下，我們都會認為那時的市場應該有正面的動力。從現在到那時會發生什麼，每個市場都會有所不同。老實說，這可能與我們發展中的收購更相關。

Because there, we are stepping into a rent roll and whether that existing rent roll has lost lease or gains lease in it will affect our kind of short-term, kind of year (inaudible) yield and that, in turn, weighs on the IRR of the investments. So it's probably subject to a little more scrutiny on acquisitions and on development just based on the greater value creation margin there.

因為在那裡，我們正在進入租金登記，現有的租金登記是否失去了租約或獲得了租約，都會影響我們的短期、年度（聽不清楚）收益率，進而影響內部收益率的投資。因此，僅基於更大的價值創造利潤，它可能會受到對收購和開發的更多審查。

I'll emphasize a couple of other components in terms of our lean in expands on [what we're] talking about earlier on the call. As you know, as we think about development yields, both established regions and expansion regions, we're focused on 100 to 150 basis points of spread to both underlying cap rates and market rates and our cost of capital. So Kevin spoke to our cost of capital and next year set of starts, right? We've locked that in at a [five]. We have over the last six months, not a huge amount of transaction activity, but we have gotten more visibility on transaction activity, which has given us more confidence around where underlying values are.

我將強調我們在電話會議早些時候討論的內容的擴展方面的其他幾個組成部分。如您所知，當我們考慮成熟地區​​和擴張地區的開發收益率時，我們關注的是基礎上限利率和市場利率以及我們的資本成本之間 100 到 150 個基點的利差。凱文談到了我們的資本成本和明年的啟動，對吧？我們已將其鎖定在[五]。在過去的六個月裡，我們的交易活動量並不大，但我們對交易活動有了更多的了解，這讓我們對潛在價值更有信心。

And then the third piece is, we have seen construction costs come down, not everywhere, but in a lot of our regions. So when we think about our long-term basis or stepping in at this point at a time, that also has us leaning into net new external growth.

第三點是，我們看到建築成本下降了，不是在所有地方，而是在我們的許多地區。因此，當我們考慮我們的長期基礎或一次在此時介入時，這也使我們傾向於淨新的外部成長。

Yes. Both of your responses, I appreciate the color there, and they kind of lead into the next question on the transaction market. And just curious, are you seeing more investment opportunities within expansion markets start to come forth? And with the equity proceeds now to help fund the development capital commitments next year, does that enable you to accelerate the paired strategy -- the pair trade strategy given, I think there are some limitations on capital gains from annual dispositions?

是的。我很欣賞你的兩個回答，它們引出了交易市場的下一個問題。只是好奇，您是否看到擴張市場中開始出現更多投資機會？現在，股權收益可以幫助為明年的開發資本承諾提供資金，這是否使您能夠加速配對策略——給定的配對交易策略，我認為年度處置的資本收益存在一些限制？

Yes. It's a good point, Austin. And I would say, yes. To the latter question, yes, so the former question not so much. So the transaction market, it's still pretty thin.

是的。這是一個很好的觀點，奧斯汀。我想說，是的。對於後一個問題，是的，所以前一個問題就沒那麼重要了。所以說交易市場還是比較清淡的。

There's still not much activity. And we're not seeing distress. In fact, a bunch of us were just at the [ULI] conference last week, and everybody was talking about that and the lack of kind of distressed opportunities. If you'd asked me 30 days ago, I would have said the transaction market seems like it's about to finally break free and get back to a robust level of volume. That was when the tenure was kind of in the mid-3s, 3.6, 3.7 range, and there was a lot of optimism and confidence.

仍然沒有太多活動。我們沒有看到痛苦。事實上，我們一群人上週剛參加了 [ULI] 會議，每個人都在談論這個問題以及缺乏某種苦惱的機會。如果你在 30 天前問我，我會說交易市場似乎即將最終擺脫束縛並恢復到強勁的交易量水準。當時的任期大約在 3 秒、3.6、3.7 範圍內，人們充滿了樂觀和信心。

It's a volatile time. And obviously, with the long rate moving up quite a bit, I think that we've seen a pullback on transaction activity just in the last 30 days. So we continue to be in this environment where select assets that meet the criteria that select buyers are looking for will trade. And as Ben mentioned, we've gotten more confidence in where those asset values are, and a lot of folks are looking for the same kind of stuff to buy, including us. But we haven't seen kind of the large-scale transaction activity that we would like to see because we would like to do more portfolio trading.

這是一個動盪的時期。顯然，隨著長期利率大幅上升，我認為我們在過去 30 天內就看到了交易活動的回落。因此，我們繼續處於這樣的環境中，即滿足特定買家所尋找標準的特定資產將進行交易。正如本所提到的，我們對這些資產的價值更有信心，許多人都在尋找同樣的東西來購買，包括我們。但我們還沒有看到我們希望看到的大規模交易活動，因為我們希望進行更多的投資組合交易。

So it looks like this year, so far, we've sold $590 million, and we bought $325 million. We're not done yet. We'll probably have at least one more disposition and hopefully, another acquisition or two before year-end. But we're going to end up the year net seller of, call it, $150 million to $200 million. Our goal would be to be net neutral and to be able to buy at the same volume as we're selling.

今年到目前為止，我們已經賣了 5.9 億美元，買了 3.25 億美元。我們還沒完成。我們可能會在年底前至少再進行一次處置，並希望再進行一兩次收購。但我們今年的淨銷售額將達到 1.5 億至 2 億美元。我們的目標是保持淨中性，並能夠以與銷售相同的數量購買。

And as you point out, we don't need the net disposition capital to fund the growth through development. And we're happy with the trades that we're making. We feel like we're selling assets that are significantly older, that are a much higher price point that we had -- there were good investments in our established regions for many years, but which don't necessarily have the same growth profile as what we're buying and also kind of our regulatory exposure is part of that strategy as well. So all of those things continue and we certainly hope to be able to do more of that transaction trading in '25.

正如您所指出的，我們不需要淨處置資本來為透過開發實現成長提供資金。我們對正在進行的交易感到滿意。我們覺得我們正在出售的資產明顯老舊，價格比我們擁有的要高得多——多年來我們在既定地區進行了良好的投資，但這些資產不一定具有與其他地區相同的增長狀況我們正在購買，我們的監管風險也是該策略的一部分。所以所有這些事情都會繼續下去，我們當然希望能夠在 25 年進行更多的交易。

Josh Dennerlein, Bank of America.

喬許‧丹納林，美國銀行。

Just looking at the lease rate growth across the markets. Just you kind of stood out to the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. Any kind of color you could give on maybe the (inaudible) going into October versus what you saw in 3Q?

只要看看整個市場的租賃率成長即可。只是你在太平洋西北地區和北加州顯得有些突出。您可以將進入十月（聽不清楚）的情況與第三季的情況進行比較嗎？

Josh, this is Sean. I mean what I said was sort of a broad brush is new moves and rent change pretty much came down in every single region. As I mentioned, that was sort of the strategy to sort of help stabilize occupancy as we went into the slower leasing season. The one thing I would just point to is that Seattle tends to be more seasonal than average. And therefore, as you are attempting to build occupancy in a market that is more seasonal on average, you're going to take it a little bit harder on the new move-ins relative to maybe some other markets that are quite as seasonal.

喬什，這是肖恩。我的意思是，我所說的大致範圍是新舉措，每個地區的租金變化幾乎都下降了。正如我所提到的，當我們進入租賃淡季時，這是一種有助於穩定入住率的策略。我想指出的一件事是，西雅圖的季節性往往比平均水平更強。因此，當你試圖在一個平均季節性更強的市場中建立入住率時，相對於其他一些同樣季節性的市場，你在新入住時會遇到一些困難。

That's really sort of the primary issue for Seattle. In Northern California, really nothing significant to note there. It's kind of a submarket by submarket decision based on availability and pricing and the occupancy target. So I wouldn't read too much into it other than in those particular submarkets. We gave a little bit more to shore up on the move-in side. It's not a lot of volume, keep that in mind.

這確實是西雅圖面臨的首要問題。在北加州，確實沒有什麼值得注意的地方。這是一種基於可用性、定價和入住率目標的子市場決策。因此，除了那些特定的子市場之外，我不會對其進行太多解讀。我們為搬入方面提供了更多支援。體積不是很大，請記住這一點。

Okay. Okay. Maybe on Seattle, in particular, I think your competitor said they were hearing -- it felt like they were seeing more traffic after Amazon's returned to office announcement. Are you guys seeing that or anticipating any kind of benefit?

好的。好的。也許特別是在西雅圖，我想你的競爭對手說他們聽到了——在亞馬遜宣布重返辦公室後，他們感覺他們看到了更多的流量。你們看到這一點或期待任何好處嗎？

Yes. No, we've seen that really kind of starting back in Q2. Seattle is one of the regions that has performed much better than we originally anticipated through 2024 in part due to Amazon's call back and people sort of slowly and steadily getting closer to or in the Seattle MSA. There are other employers doing the same thing. So I think, overall return to office and the trends returned office, whether it's Amazon and the impact in Seattle or announcements from Salesforce about calling people back in January, San Francisco, all those things are a positive trend for those markets.

是的。不，我們從第二季就已經看到了這種情況。西雅圖是到 2024 年表現比我們最初預期好得多的地區之一，部分原因是亞馬遜的回檔以及人們慢慢穩定地接近或居住在西雅圖 MSA。還有其他雇主也在做同樣的事情。因此，我認為，整體重返辦公室和趨勢回歸辦公室，無論是亞馬遜及其對西雅圖的影響，還是 Salesforce 關於 1 月在舊金山召回員工的公告，所有這些對於這些市場來說都是積極的趨勢。

I would say on the Salesforce side in San Francisco, we started to see early signs of it, but there's probably so more to come, whereas Amazon made that announcement quite some time ago, and we're seeing movement throughout Seattle as a result of that for a good portion of this year.

我想說的是，在舊金山的Salesforce 方面，我們開始看到它的早期跡象，但可能會有更多跡象，而亞馬遜很久以前就宣布了這一消息，而且我們看到整個西雅圖都在發生變化，因為今年的大部分時間都是如此。

Brad Heffern with RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的布拉德‧赫芬 (Brad Heffern)。

Yes. Yes, maybe I didn't catch this, but could you guys give a loss-to-lease number?

是的。是的，也許我沒聽清，但是你們能提供一個租賃損失的號碼嗎？

Yes, Brad, this is Sean. We actually haven't. But overall loss-to-lease as of November 1, is about 100 basis points across the portfolio, slightly higher in the East and the West, and we're actually in a modest gain-to-lease situation in the expansion (inaudible)

是的，布拉德，這是肖恩。我們實際上還沒有。但截至 11 月 1 日，整個投資組合的整體租賃損失約為 100 個基點，東部和西部略高，而且我們實際上在擴張中處於適度的租賃收益情況（聽不清楚）

Okay. And then you mentioned in the slides that the DFP program now covers build to rent. That's new to me at least. So I guess can you walk through that addition, especially given it is in the property type that you develop?

好的。然後您在幻燈片中提到 DFP 計劃現在涵蓋建立租賃。至少這對我來說是新的。所以我想你能介紹一下這個新增內容嗎，特別是考慮到它是你開發的房產類型？

Yes. So on the build to rent, the BTR space, we have made a decision to more formally advance our plans there. And we consider an expansion of our existing business. We've been building townhomes, purpose-built townhomes, really since the beginning of AvalonBay. We do it today.

是的。因此，在建造以出租、BTR 空間方面，我們決定更正式地推進我們的計劃。我們正在考慮擴大現有業務。自從阿瓦隆灣成立以來，我們就一直在建造聯排別墅，專門建造的聯排別墅。我們今天就這樣做。

A lot of times we're building townhomes in conjunction with apartment flats. And sometimes we're building full town home types of communities. And so it feels like an opportunity for us to take what we do well on the operating side and on the development side and bring it into this, I'll call it, expanded set of opportunities. As we are organizing specific resources around the opportunity set, in the nearer term, you're likely to see more of our focus, one be on townhome communities within the larger scope of BTR. And second, in terms of the growth channels to be via acquisitions.

很多時候，我們會與公寓一起建造聯排別墅。有時我們正在建造完整的聯排別墅類型的社區。因此，這對我們來說是一個機會，可以利用我們在營運方面和開發方面做得很好的東西，並將其帶入我稱之為擴展的機會中。當我們圍繞機會集組織特定資源時，在短期內，您可能會看到我們更多的關注點，其中之一是 BTR 更大範圍內的聯排別墅社區。其次，就成長通路而言，透過收購。

And so we had an acquisition in Austin, which was a flow townhome community and through our developer funding program, which is the [Plano] project that you referenced. So we're excited about the opportunity set. We think we can really bring our strategic advantages to bear there and provide more growth opportunities going forward.

因此，我們在奧斯汀進行了收購，這是一個流動聯排別墅社區，並透過我們的開發商資助計劃進行了收購，這就是您提到的[普萊諾]項目。所以我們對這個機會感到興奮。我們認為我們可以真正發揮我們的策略優勢，並提供更多的未來成長機會。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

約翰金 (John Kim)，BMO 資本市場。

On your building blocks for same-store NOI growth next year, I think the one item that you haven't addressed yet on this call is property taxes. Do you expect that to go down next year? And this is following a year where asset values have gone up and you've increased your Sunbelt exposure where the rates are higher. Can you just comment on why you see taxes going down next year and maybe the quantum?

關於明年同店 NOI 成長的基礎，我認為您在本次電話會議中尚未解決的一個問題是財產稅。您預計明年這數字會下降嗎？緊接著的一年，資產價值上漲，您增加了利率更高的陽光地帶風險敞口。您能否評論為什麼您認為明年的稅收會下降，也許還有下降的幅度？

Yes, John, this is Sean. The main driver, when we haven't settled all of our property tax budgets yet. But the main driver that will impact the growth rate for property taxes in 2025, particularly relative to 2024, is a modestly diminished impact from the expiration of various tax abatement programs, notably the 421-a program in New York City, which boosted overall expense growth by roughly 80 basis points this year. We expect that to come down next year. So that will move the needle, all else being equal based on what we know today in terms of changes in assessed values or rates across the other markets when you have something that's significant.

是的，約翰，這是肖恩。當我們還沒有解決所有財產稅預算時，這是主要的推動因素。但影響2025 年財產稅成長率（尤其是相對2024 年而言）的主要驅動力是各種減稅計劃到期後的影響略有減弱，特別是紐約市的421-a 計劃，該計劃推高了整體支出今年成長約80個基點。我們預計明年這一數字將會下降。因此，當你擁有重要的東西時，根據我們今天所知的其他市場的評估值或利率的變化，這將帶來改變。

Okay. That makes sense. And then on development yields. I know you typically outperform your initial projections once you stabilize the projects. But the yields on your current pipeline are now 5.9%, which is slightly lower than it was last quarter. Were there any projects that underperformed as far as rent levels or budgeted costs versus your expectations?

好的。這是有道理的。然後是發展收益。我知道一旦專案穩定下來，你的表現通常會超出最初的預測。但目前管道的收益率現在為 5.9%，略低於上季。是否有任何項目的租金水平或預算成本低於您的預期？

John, it's Matt. No, I mean, really, that's just a mix change. We had two deals complete last quarter, whose yields were in the high [7s], which came out of the basket. They're no longer in the development bucket there now in other stabilized. And we added four deals that were around a 6.

約翰，是馬特。不，我的意思是，真的，這只是一個混合變化。上個季度我們完成了兩筆交易，其收益率處於高位 [7s]，屬於籃子之外的交易。他們現在不再處於其他穩定的開發桶中。我們新增了 4 筆 6 左右的交易。

So the change there is really just a basket mix. The deals that we have that are currently in lease-up, which we don't have that many of, I think it's only five. They are running still ahead of pro forma. Not as much ahead of pro forma as some of the deals we completed earlier this year, as we're now moving into -- we're now getting maybe a couple of years away from kind of '22 when we had pretty aggressive rent growth. But they're still running $175 per month ahead on rent and 20 basis points ahead on yield.

所以那裡的變化其實只是一攬子組合。我們目前正在租賃的交易，我們沒有那麼多，我認為只有五個。他們仍然領先於備考。不像我們今年早些時候完成的一些交易那樣提前，因為我們現在正在進入——我們現在可能距離 22 年租金增長相當強勁的時期還有幾年的時間。但他們每月的租金仍領先 175 美元，收益率領先 20 個基點。

And that's at [5.9] And what you'll see over the next couple of quarters is that number will start to move up into the 6s into the low 6s and then probably by this time next year into the mid-6s as more of the deals that we started this year, and in '23, which were underwritten into the 6s start and more of the deals that started in '21 and '22 when cap rates were [3.5] and yields were [five] as those deals complete and roll out of that basket, you'll see it rise.

那是 [5.9] 在接下來的幾個季度裡你會看到這個數字將開始上升到 6 到低 6，然後可能到明年這個時候進入 6 左右，因為更多的我們今年和23 年開始的交易，這些交易在6s 開始時被承銷，以及更多在21 和22 年開始的交易，當時資本化率為[3.5]，當這些交易完成時，收益率為[5]。你會看到它升起來。

[Anne Chan], Green Street.

[Anne Chan]，格林街。

Going back to your comments on the build-to-rent communities, are you anticipating acquiring any detached single-family homes build-to-rent communities as well or stick to the more townhome like product? And if so, can you give us a sense of the size of the pipeline you're evaluating?

回到您對建租社區的評論，您是否期望購買建租社區的獨立單戶住宅，還是堅持購買更像聯排別墅的產品？如果是這樣，您能否讓我們了解您正在評估的管道的規模？

So on your first question, Anne, detached BTR product is in the possibility set. It's not where we're necessarily starting. We're going to, as I said, emphasized the townhome product a little bit closer to our regular activity. But purpose-built communities, generally in the unit range of 80 to 130 units per community, places where we feel like we can bring our -- if we're going to buy an asset, particularly bring our operating heft and operating scale to these communities, which is when we think about the space, one of the opportunities is there are many institutional large-scale operators in this space. And so in places where we can have both apartments and BTR, we feel like there are synergies that can come in and around that mix.

所以，關於你的第一個問題，安妮，獨立的 BTR 產品是在可能性集中的。這不是我們必須開始的地方。正如我所說，我們將強調聯排別墅產品更接近我們的常規活動。但是，專門建造的社區，通常每個社區有 80 到 130 個單位，如果我們要購買資產，我們覺得我們可以將我們的經營實力和經營規模帶到這些地方。時，機會之一是這個空間中有很多機構大型運營商。因此，在我們可以同時擁有公寓和 BTR 的地方，我們覺得這種混合可以產生協同效應。

We haven't defined the pipeline at this point. We haven't set a specific target in terms of the percentage of the overall portfolio, but we have dedicated resources, and it will be an area of incremental emphasis over the next 12 to 18 months.

目前我們還沒有定義管道。我們尚未就佔整體投資組合的百分比設定具體目標，但我們有專門的資源，這將是未來 12 至 18 個月內逐步重點關注的領域。

And just moving over to the construction costs that you're talking about earlier, it's been shifting down. Could you also provide a sense for how land values have trended over the last few months and the construction of the labor cost in particular?

轉向你之前提到的建築成本，它一直在下降。您能否介紹一下過去幾個月土地價值的趨勢，特別是勞動成本的建設？

Yes, Anne, it's Matt. Land values are usually the stickiest part of the equation in development, and it is completely local. So it's hard to generalize on that. We have seen and we highlighted actually last year at our Investor Day how one of the deals we have under construction now in [Quinsey mass], we were able to buy that land at 40% less than where it would have traded at the peak of the frenzy. So there are situations where we've seen that kind of move.

是的，安妮，是馬特。土地價值通常是開發過程中最棘手的部分，而且完全是本地的。所以很難對此一概而論。我們已經看到並在去年的投資者日上強調了我們目前在 [Quinsey Mass] 正在建設的一項交易，我們能夠以比 2019 年高峰期交易價格低 40% 的價格購買這塊土地。因此，在某些情況下我們已經看到了這種舉動。

I'd say in California, not a lot of land is trading because it's very difficult to get development to underwrite there. But to the extent it does, that's where we've seen some significant land retrenchment. And it's generally places -- those kind of markets where land represents a very high percentage of the deal cap. In some of the Sunbelt regions in North Carolina, even in Texas, the land is not that high a percentage of the deal cap. So whether you're paying 30 or 35 or 40 a door for the land, that's not really what's going to make the difference. So there is some give back there, but probably not as much. So it varies market to market, but it's not been -- with a few exceptions, I would say, it has kind of a major move across the board.

我想說的是，在加州，沒有太多土地可以交易，因為那裡的開發案很難承保。但就其程度而言，我們已經看到了一些重大的土地緊縮。一般來說，在這些市場中，土地佔交易上限的比例非常高。在北卡羅來納州的一些陽光地帶地區，甚至在德克薩斯州，土地在交易上限中所佔的比例並不高。因此，無論你為這塊土地支付 30 美元、35 美元還是 40 美元一扇門，這都沒有什麼區別。所以那裡有一些回饋，但可能沒有那麼多。因此，它因市場而異，但事實並非如此——我想說，除了少數例外，它在整體上發生了重大變化。

Ami Probandt, UBS.

阿米普羅班特，瑞銀集團。

What is the outlook for when the expansion markets could reach an equilibrium in terms of supply and demand and see a return to some pricing power?

當擴張市場達到供需平衡並恢復一定定價能力時，前景如何？

Yes. Our expectations for 2025 is particularly the high supply submarkets in the Sunbelt regions are going to continue to face fairly meaningful pressure and then the impact on rent rolls and cash flows for those properties and those types of submarkets would then roll over into 2026. Start volumes, as we all see, are definitely coming down. I would emphasize they're coming down in both the Sunbelt and in our established regions. So as you get out into 2026 kind of all else being equal, we do expect lower levels of supply. And I'd say sort of equal levels of demand as we think about demand drivers in our established regions relative to demand drivers in our expansion regions.

是的。我們對 2025 年的預期是，陽光地帶地區的高供應子市場將繼續面臨相當大的壓力，然後對這些房產和此類子市場的租金和現金流的影響將延續到 2026 年。正如我們所見，開工量肯定會下降。我想強調的是，它們正在陽光地帶和我們既定的地區出現。因此，到 2026 年，在其他條件相同的情況下，我們確實預期供應水準會下降。當我們考慮已建立地區的需求驅動因素與擴張地區的需求驅動因素時，我想說的是需求水準相當。

Okay. And then a quick one. What assumptions are baked into the earning calculation? Does this include your prospective rents through the end of the year?

好的。然後是快速的。在收益計算中考慮了哪些假設？這是否包括您到年底的預期租金？

Yes, Ami, it does based on the numbers I described previously. So yes, it does.

是的，阿米，確實是基於我之前描述的數字。所以是的，確實如此。

Rich Anderson, Wedbush.

里奇安德森，韋德布希。

So clearly, you're sounding a little bit more upbeat on 2026 in terms of timing new deliveries. But what's the range of economic assumptions that you're using to get there, particularly for next year? Obviously you've got some idea about where the broader economy is going, employment and so on to get you comfortable with the year following. So I'm just wondering if you could give a picture of what the broader underlying assumptions are for the next year to get you sort of confident in 2026 deliveries?

很明顯，您對 2026 年新產品交付時間的看法更加樂觀。但是，為了實現這一目標，特別是明年，您所使用的經濟假設範圍是多少？顯然，你已經對更廣泛的經濟走向、就業等有了一些了解，讓你對來年感到滿意。所以我只是想知道您是否可以描述明年更廣泛的基本假設是什麼，以使您對 2026 年的交付有一定的信心？

Yes. Sure, Rich. I'll provide some color on context and really focus on our sort of economic outlook for 2025 at this point. Consensus, and we look to the National Association of Business economics as a guide in and around consensus, generally has job growth slowing in [2005] relative to 2024 going from sort of 2 million net new jobs down into the 1.5 million type of range. Couple of call-outs.

是的。當然，里奇。我將提供一些背景信息，並重點關注我們對 2025 年的經濟前景。我們將全國商業經濟學會視為共識的指導，普遍認為，相對於 2024 年，2005 年的就業成長將放緩，從 200 萬個淨新增就業人數下降到 150 萬個就業機會。幾個呼喚。

One is potentially the mix of jobs next year could look different than this year and the higher income jobs and jobs in what we would consider our knowledge-based economy, our core type of customer. So that's leaning in a little bit. Wage prospects also for our core customer, have continued to look strong. Those also look strong as we're heading into next year. And then generally, this kind of connects sort of the job outlook to the supply outlook.

一是明年的工作組合可能與今年有所不同，收入較高的工作以及我們所認為的知識型經濟（我們的核心客戶類型）中的工作。所以這有點傾斜。我們的核心客戶的薪資前景也持續強勁。當我們進入明年時，這些看起來也很強大。一般來說，這將就業前景與供應前景連結起來。

You sort of do a compare and contrast of '24 relative to '25. Maybe jobs are slowing a little bit, supplies are coming down a little bit. But across the country in a lot of markets, seems fairly consistent from a jobs to supply ratio. And so as we think about what are the types of markets that are going to outperform next year, they're going to continue to be the ones that have lower levels of new supply and the ones that are going to continue to be under pressure going to be those with higher levels of new supply coming online.

你可以對 24 世紀和 25 世紀進行比較和對比。也許工作正在放緩，供應正在減少。但在全國許多市場中，就業與供應的比例似乎相當一致。因此，當我們思考明年哪些類型的市場將表現出色時，它們將繼續是新增供應水平較低的市場，以及將繼續面臨壓力的市場。

Okay. So with that, color, what's the bull case for owning multifamily next year? It sounds like you got some decent economic observations, and you're feeling generally okay. But equity residential described things as good. And that's, I guess, good. But I just wonder if there's -- is it sort of just a stable sort of not sideways moving year next year to the bigger prize in '26 and '27? Or do you think it's more optimistic than that for next year?

好的。那麼，顏色，明年擁有多戶住宅的牛市理由是什麼？聽起來你得到了一些不錯的經濟觀察結果，而且你感覺總體還不錯。但股權住宅形容情況很好。我想，這很好。但我只是想知道是否存在——這是否只是一種穩定的形式，不會在明年橫向移動，以在 26 和 27 年獲得更大的獎項？還是你認為比明年更樂觀？

Yes. So for us, Rich, I'll highlight a couple of areas. One, we expect our suburban coastal business to continue to outperform. If you look at the building blocks and the drivers that we've talked about going into next year and that Sean detailed, we feel relatively positive there. The other component is the lean- in and around external growth.

是的。Rich，對我們來說，我將重點放在幾個領域。第一，我們預計我們的郊區沿海業務將繼續跑贏大盤。如果你看看我們討論過的明年的構建模組和驅動因素以及肖恩詳細介紹的，我們對此感到相對積極。另一個組成部分是內向和外部成長。

And we've talked about development activity and the buildup and the prospects there. And then potentially a transaction markets, and I think with some -- hopefully, some enhanced visibility and stability around rates and cap rates, that leads to some more transaction activity, which when I think about the prospects for next year and going into '26, players with our scale, our cost of capital, our ability to generate more value by having assets on our platform, that should also allow us to lean further into external growth.

我們已經討論了那裡的開發活動、建設和前景。然後是潛在的交易市場，我認為，希望能夠提高利率和上限利率的可見度和穩定性，這會導致更多的交易活動，當我考慮明年和進入 26 年的前景時，我們的規模、資本成本、透過平台上的資產創造更多價值的能力，這也應該使我們能夠進一步依靠外部成長。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

亞歷山大·戈德法布，派珀·桑德勒。

Two questions for you. And maybe first, just following up on Rich's question. It's been five years since we've had a normal leasing market and apartment land. As you guys look to 2025, do you think it will be back to a normal leasing market? Or do you think there will still be some anomalies in what we see as we go through 2025?

有兩個問題問你。也許首先，只是跟進里奇的問題。我們擁有正常的租賃市場和公寓土地已經五年了。展望2025年，您認為租賃市場會恢復正常嗎？或者您認為 2025 年我們所看到的情況仍然會出現一些異常情況嗎？

Alex, it's Sean. When you said normal, just got a normal seasonal patterns in pricing is what you mean specifically?

亞歷克斯，這是肖恩。當您說「正常」時，您具體指的是定價的正常季節性模式嗎？

Yes. I mean, we had -- yes, 2020 was COVID, and it's been topsy-turvy since then.

是的。我的意思是，我們——是的，2020 年是新冠疫情，從那時起，情況就變得混亂不堪。

Yes. I mean I think for the most part, if you think about what -- how the pricing curves are generated kind of follows the patterns of demand. And our expectation is the traditional seasonal patterns for demand aren't likely to shift anytime soon in terms of the reasons people move, when they want to move, what they're desiring in terms of apartments and things of that sort. The two things that are a little unusual that I think maybe still haven't fully played out but are sort of in the background, beyond what Ben talked about in terms of job and wage growth, is -- and particularly in our coastal markets, is the return to office trends. Certainly have gotten better.

是的。我的意思是，我認為在很大程度上，如果你考慮定價曲線是如何產生的，它遵循需求模式。我們的預期是，就人們搬家的原因、何時想要搬家、他們對公寓和諸如此類的東西的渴望而言，傳統的季節性需求模式不太可能很快就會改變。有兩件事有點不尋常，我認為可能還沒有完全發揮作用，但在背景中，超出了本在就業和工資增長方面所談到的範圍，特別是在我們的沿海市場，是重返辦公室的趨勢。當然已經變得更好了。

I'm not sure we felt the full impact of that yet across all of our coastal regions as people are sort of inching their way back to what they think is normal state. And we mentioned earlier, Amazon's announcement, Salesforce bringing people back to San Francisco in January, that's certainly a positive that helps sort of build confidence in the city, other issues in LA and DC and places like that. So I think that's one factor.

我不確定我們所有沿海地區是否感受到了這種影響的全部影響，因為人們正在慢慢回到他們認為的正常狀態。我們之前提到過，亞馬遜宣布 Salesforce 將在一月份將人們帶回舊金山，這無疑是一個積極的因素，有助於增強人們對城市以及洛杉磯和華盛頓等地的其他問題的信心。所以我認為這是一個因素。

And then certainly, the lack of affordable for-sale housing in our established regions where the cost on a home is, relative to renting is, the widest we've ever seen. Those two -- it's hard to tell how this fully play out. But they are still playing out, I would say. You can see it on return to office trends. And on the for sale side, it's really showing up in lower turnover, which we think is going to be durable for a while.

當然，我們的成熟地區缺乏經濟適用房，相對於租金而言，這些地區的房屋成本是我們所見過的最高的。這兩個——很難說這會如何完全發揮作用。但我想說，他們仍在發揮作用。您可以在重返辦公室趨勢中看到這一點。在銷售方面，它確實表現為較低的營業額，我們認為這種情況將持續一段時間。

But the impact of new households being formed and their options, renting still looks like relative to historical norms and more attractive option. So how those play into the seasonal patterns may not look different, but it may just provide further support for growth in those established regions relative to what we've seen historically.

但新家庭的形成及其選擇的影響，相對於歷史標準，租賃看起來仍然是更具吸引力的選擇。因此，這些因素對季節性模式的影響可能看起來並沒有什麼不同，但相對於我們歷史上看到的情況，它可能只是為這些成熟地區的成長提供進一步的支持。

The second question is on site selection, clearly, especially here in the Northeast, lower Westchester and New Jersey have had a lot of floods. As you guys look throughout your existing markets and expansion markets, have you seen a change in the land that you're looking at as far as land that years ago was not considered flood area is now considered and therefore, your site selection has changed. I'm curious if, in fact, your site selection has changed based on how some of these rivers and such are overflowing with storms.

第二個問題是選址，顯然，特別是在東北部、威徹斯特下游和新澤西州，已經發生了許多洪水。當你們審視現有市場和擴展市場時，你們是否看到你們所關注的土地發生了變化，多年前不被視為洪水區域的土地現在被考慮在內，因此，你們的選址發生了變化。我很好奇，事實上，您的選址是否已經根據其中一些河流等暴風雨氾濫的情況而發生了變化。

Alex, it's Matt. For us, I'd say, for at least the last six or seven years, we actually do have a pretty formal process for that, where every site gets run through a third-party coastal risk model. It's actually a resiliency risk model, which tries to capture wind, flooding, (inaudible) flooding, (inaudible) flooding, excessive heat, wildfire risk, all those different things.

亞歷克斯，這是馬特。對我們來說，我想說，至少在過去的六、七年裡，我們實際上確實有一個非常正式的流程，每個站點都透過第三方沿海風險模型運作。它實際上是一個彈性風險模型，試圖捕捉風、洪水、（聽不清楚）洪水、（聽不清楚）洪水、過熱、野火風險，以及所有這些不同的事情。

So I'd say we were early adopters of that. And so there are probably sites we've passed on that maybe today would be harder for somebody to get financed than would have been the case five years ago. And we did switch vendors to a more robust reporting format on that. But we've always been pretty mindful of that.

所以我想說我們是它的早期採用者。因此，我們可能已經傳遞了一些網站，也許今天對某人來說比五年前更難獲得融資。我們確實讓供應商採用了更強大的報告格式。但我們一直非常注意這一點。

Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho Securities.

Haendel St. Juste，瑞穗證券。

I have two quick ones here. First, I guess, is can you talk a bit about the year-to-date performance of your East versus West Coast markets versus your initial expectations and some thoughts on the relative opportunity ahead in the East Coast markets? Boston, New York, DC have been very strong this year, but a tougher year-over-year comparison next year while some of your West Coast markets, San Francisco and Seattle have easier comps and some (inaudible) upside as you outlined, but less clarity.

我這裡有兩個快的。首先，我想，您能否談談今年迄今為止東海岸市場與西海岸市場的表現與您最初的預期以及對東海岸市場未來相對機會的一些想法？波士頓、紐約、華盛頓特區今年表現非常強勁，但明年的同比比較會更加艱難，而您的一些西海岸市場、舊金山和西雅圖的比較更容易，並且正如您所概述的那樣，有一些（聽不清楚）的上升空間，但是清晰度較差。

Yes, Haendel, this is Sean. I provide a little bit of color there. Yes, certainly, what I'd say for this year is we've seen better performance out of Boston, New York, specifically of the New York, New Jersey region and the Mid-Atlantic to a certain degree and then also in the West Coast Seattle. In terms of the outlook for those markets, yes, the earn-in, if you want to describe it that way, it certainly is a little more robust in those markets relative to others. So all else being equal in terms of -- just everything else was equal in terms of rent change across the markets, those ones would outperform in 2025 relative to 2024.

是的，亨德爾，這是肖恩。我在那裡提供了一點顏色。是的，當然，我想說的是，今年我們看到波士頓、紐約，特別是紐約、新澤西地區和大西洋中部地區在某種程度上表現更好，然後在西部也有更好的表現西雅圖海岸。就這些市場的前景而言，是的，如果你想這樣描述的話，那麼這些市場相對於其他市場的收益肯定更強勁一些。因此，在所有其他條件都相同的情況下，只要就整個市場的租金變化而言，其他所有條件都相同，這些市場在 2025 年的表現將優於 2024 年。

But to the extent you see significant momentum due to other factors in the various other markets that haven't performed as well as those in '24. That can certainly overwhelm. They earn in pretty quickly. So I think it's really a reflection of how you want to look at what the job growth expectations are for particular market. How it blends with supply and then these other trends in terms of for sale housing and return to office and how they can play out, that would really impact the performance in '25 in terms of who's top of the leaderboard versus not?

但在某種程度上，由於其他各個市場的其他因素，您看到了顯著的勢頭，但這些市場的表現不如 24 年。這肯定會壓倒一切。他們賺得很快。因此，我認為這實際上反映了您如何看待特定市場的就業成長預期。它如何與供應以及待售住房和重返辦公室的其他趨勢相結合，以及它們如何發揮作用，這將真正影響 25 年的表現，即誰在排行榜上名列前茅？

Would you care to quantify some of that earn in for those East versus West Coast markets or perhaps wait?

您是否願意量化東海岸市場和西海岸市場的部分收入，或者也許等待？

Yes. I mean we can look at -- I mean, I gave an overall number of 110 basis points. Earning on the East is about [$130 million] and earning on the West is about just under one point, it's around 94, 95 basis points. And it's a forecast. So things can move around a little bit here.

是的。我的意思是，我們可以看看——我的意思是，我給出的總數為 110 個基點。東部地區的收入約為[1.3億美元]，西部地區的收入略低於1個基點，約為94、95個基點。這是一個預測。所以這裡的事情可以稍微改變一下。

And then as I mentioned earlier, as we're talking about lease to lease, loss to lease, or gain to lease as it relates to our expansion of regions, it's actually a little bit negative around 20 basis points.

正如我之前提到的，當我們談論租賃到租賃、租賃損失或租賃收益時，因為它與我們的區域擴張有關，實際上在 20 個基點左右有點負。

Got it. Appreciate that. And then one more, if I could, just on the other income. I think it's up 15% or so this year, another 10%, I think you outlined for next year. I guess I'm curious on what's the remaining opportunity there? What's driving those numbers into next year? And then how should we think about the associated costs related to some of the initiatives that you'd be rolling out next year?

知道了。很欣賞這一點。如果可以的話，然後再用另一筆收入。我認為今年增長了 15% 左右，明年又增長了 10%。我想我很好奇剩下的機會是什麼？是什麼推動這些數字進入明年？那麼我們應該如何考慮與您明年推出的一些措施相關的相關成本？

Yes, no problem. Yes. So we do expect it to -- the growth rate for other rental revenue to decelerate in '25 relative to '24 based on what we know today. there's a number of different categories that are producing sort of above-average growth. But the primary one that's driving it to that level has been our AvalonConnect offering, which will still be present in 2025 because we put the programs in place to get fully deployed, we'll be about 90% deployed by year-end 2024, and then the revenue flows through as the leases expire in 2025.

是的，沒問題。是的。因此，根據我們今天所知，我們確實預計 25 年其他租金收入的成長率將比 24 年有所放緩。有許多不同的類別正在產生高於平均水平的成長。但推動其達到這一水平的主要因素是我們的 AvalonConnect 產品，該產品到 2025 年仍將存在，因為我們已將計劃落實到位以實現全面部署，到 2024 年底我們將部署約 90%，並且當租約於2025 年到期時，收入就會流入。

Since you can't push it through where people are already on existing leases. And so that's the main driver. And then in terms of OpEx trends, as I mentioned earlier, the impact for 2024 is a result of some of the initiatives is around 120 basis points in terms of the impact on total OpEx growth in 2024, and we do expect that to diminish pretty materially as we get into 2025. Again, because the program is more fully deployed, it's not impacting as many units. So that will soften in 2025.

因為你無法在人們已經租有現有租約的地方推動它。這就是主要驅動力。然後就營運支出趨勢而言，正如我之前提到的，某些舉措對2024 年的影響約為120 個基點，對2024 年總營運支出成長的影響約為120 個基點，我們確實預期這一影響將大幅減少進入 2025 年，我們將取得重大進展。同樣，由於該計劃部署得更全面，因此不會影響那麼多單位。因此，到 2025 年，這種情況將會有所緩解。

(Operator Instructions) Linda Tsai, Jefferies.

（操作員說明）Linda Tsai，Jefferies。

Just on the view that like-term effective rent is reaccelerating into year-end. Does this hold into January too? The chart on page 12 looks like the comparisons stay reasonable in January, would you expect new lease growth to be positioned to be positive as well?

只是認為，同期有效租金在年底重新加速成長。這也持續到一月嗎？第 12 頁的圖表看起來 1 月的比較仍然合理，您是否預期新租賃成長也將是正面的？

We haven't provided a forecast yet for January as we sort of still working through that. We feel comfortable doing that for November, December, just given the volume of lease expirations in those months, what we already know about it and the shift in asking rents more importantly. So we're not providing that for January, but feel good about what we did provide for November and December.

我們尚未提供一月份的預測，因為我們仍在努力解決這個問題。考慮到這些月份的租約到期數量、我們已經了解的情況以及更重要的租金要價的變化，我們在 11 月、12 月這樣做是很舒服的。因此，我們不會為 1 月份提供此服務，但對我們為 11 月和 12 月提供的服務感到滿意。

And then just on BTR, how would yield differ between townhomes over, say, single detached? And then from the perspective of resident preferences, where do townhomes fit between traditional, multifamily and single attached homes?

那麼就 BTR 而言，連棟別墅與獨立屋之間的收益率有何不同？那麼從居民偏好的角度來看，連棟房屋在傳統住宅、多戶住宅和獨棟住宅之間處於什麼位置？

Linda, it's Matt. It's early to tell because it's still a relatively new and quickly expanding subsector of our business of rental housing more broadly. But I would say our experience with the town homes that we do own and what we've seen from third parties, the yields aren't really significantly different and for that matter, probably nor are the cap rates.

琳達，這是馬特。現在下結論還為時過早，因為它仍然是我們更廣泛的租賃住房業務中相對較新且快速擴張的子行業。但我想說的是，根據我們擁有的聯排別墅的經驗以及我們從第三方看到的情況，收益率並沒有真正顯著的不同，就此而言，資本化率可能也沒有顯著差異。

As it relates to who's the customer and is the customer difference for single family versus the townhome, I think it probably starts with location that where you're going to see townhomes is in closer in locations where the land is too valuable to kind of have quarter-acre lots or what have you, and people developing townhomes at 10, 15, 20 to the acre. And as you get further out, you start to have more land where you're able to do true detach single-family.

因為它關係到誰是客戶，也是單戶住宅與聯排別墅的客戶差異，我認為這可能始於您將看到聯排別墅的位置，距離土地太有價值而無法擁有的位置更近四分之一英畝的地塊或什麼，人們以每英畝10、15、20 英畝的面積開發聯排別墅。當你走得更遠時，你開始擁有更多的土地，可以真正獨立建造單戶住宅。

I haven't seen a lot. I don't know that there's a huge difference in the customer base other than obviously, there are some customers, particularly empty nesters, for whom a three-story townhouse might be a bit much. Families with kids also, we probably prefer the larger yard. We do get a fair number of townhome BTR that do have their own yard as well as their own garage that is something that's important. And I believe the community we just started there in [Plano] has yards as well as garages.

我沒見過很多。我不知道客戶群是否存在巨大差異，但顯然，有一些客戶，特別是空巢老人，對他們來說三層聯排別墅可能有點多。有孩子的家庭，我們可能更喜歡更大的院子。我們確實有相當多的 BTR 聯排別墅，它們有自己的院子和車庫，這一點很重要。我相信我們剛剛在[普萊諾]建立的社區有庭院和車庫。

But so there are probably subtle differences in terms of life stage. So the school district is probably more important for a single-family product in a townhome product. But this is all early days, and we'll certainly learn a lot more as we get more of this product out there.

但就生命階段而言，可能存在細微的差異。所以對於連棟別墅產品中的單戶產品來說，學區可能更重要。但這還處於早期階段，隨著我們獲得更多該產品，我們肯定會學到更多。

Alexander [Kalmus], Zelman and Associates.

亞歷山大 [Kalmus]，澤爾曼及其同事。

I wanted to ask about your apartment renter base. Have you seen any demographic shifts recently as Millennials continue to age and move out to buy remains low. How are the younger age cohorts showing up in your portfolio?

我想問一下你們的公寓租客基礎。隨著千禧世代繼續老化並且外出購買仍然很低，您最近是否看到了人口結構的變化？年輕族群在您的投資組合中表現如何？

Yes, this is Sean. I wouldn't say there's been any meaningful shifts recently. Obviously, as you went through COVID and then initially started coming out of COVID, there was a lot of movement initially in COVID, not as much doubling up, a lot more single-person households. All those things just sort of transition through COVID I'd say, have stabilized at more normal levels. The percentage of the room rates, et cetera.

是的，這是肖恩。我不會說最近發生了任何有意義的變化。顯然，當你經歷了新冠病毒，然後最初開始走出新冠病毒時，新冠病毒最初發生了很多變化，沒有那麼多的雙人居住，而是有更多的單人家庭。我想說，所有這些事情只是透過新冠疫情發生的過渡，已經穩定在更正常的水平。房價的百分比等等。

So I don't think there have been any significant shifts. I think as you look forward, just given the nature of demographics and some of the development I was talking about, I think being more heavily suburban, some of the town home product certainly fits the aging Millennial profile where they want to be a little more infill in our established regions. It's very expensive to buy a home. So if we can get a nice quality town home product, a small yard or a nice (inaudible) and being a good school district, that's highly attractive. So we are making sure our portfolio is well positioned for the demand that's to come which may represent slightly larger households when you include kids in some of these markets than what we've seen in the past.

所以我認為沒有任何重大轉變。我認為，正如你所期望的那樣，考慮到人口統計的性質和我正在談論的一些發展，我認為在更多的郊區，一些城鎮住宅產品肯定適合老齡化的千禧一代的形象，他們想要更多一點填補我們已建立的地區。買房子非常貴。因此，如果我們能夠獲得優質的聯排別墅產品、一個小院子或一個漂亮的（聽不清楚）並且是一個好的學區，那就非常有吸引力。因此，我們確保我們的投資組合能夠很好地滿足即將到來的需求，當您將孩子納入其中一些市場時，這些需求可能代表比我們過去看到的稍大的家庭。

But looking at it over a short period of time, you get a lot of false signals in terms of just some noise in there that I wouldn't necessarily say has really resulted in anything significant in terms of shifts in the last few quarters.

但在短時間內觀察，你會得到很多錯誤訊號，其中只是一些噪音，我不一定會說這些噪音確實對過去幾季的變化產生了任何重大影響。

Got it. Makes sense. And then switching gears here to bad debt. You mentioned that you anticipate bad debt to continue to improve in 2025. I mean could you talk about which markets are driving that change specifically or may have more runway for improvement as well?

知道了。有道理。然後在這裡切換到壞帳。您提到預計壞帳狀況將在 2025 年繼續改善。我的意思是，您能否具體談談哪些市場正在推動這種變化，或者可能還有更多的改進空間？

Yes, happy to do that. I mean the regions with the greatest opportunities, I'll say, top four or five. New York, New Jersey, particularly the New York City market still running in the low 2% range. The Mid-Atlantic, low 2% range as well, particularly the DC and Maryland being the outlier issues relative to Virginia actually doing pretty well.

是的，很高興這樣做。我的意思是機會最大的地區，我想說的是前四名或前五名。紐約、新澤西，特別是紐約市市場仍運作在2%的低位區間。大西洋中部地區也有 2% 的低範圍，尤其是華盛頓特區和馬裡蘭州，相對於維吉尼亞州來說，這些問題實際上表現得相當不錯。

A little bit in Northern California is still running high relative to historical norms, but it's about 25 basis points. LA still running a little over 2% with LA and Ventura being the issues there within Southern California. Orange County, San Diego, getting closer to the norm at 70 to 90 basis points.

相對於歷史標準，北加州的通膨率仍略高，但約為 25 個基點。洛杉磯的比例仍略高於 2%，其中洛杉磯和文圖拉是南加州的問題所在。聖地亞哥奧蘭治縣正在接近 70 至 90 個基點的正常水平。

Virginia, as I mentioned, around 70 basis points. Boston back to 60. So it's really New York New Jersey, the Mid-Atlantic and then to a certain degree, in Northern California and LA, the markets where we do see more significant improvement as we move through 2025.

正如我所提到的，維吉尼亞州大約 70 個基點。波士頓重回60分。所以，實際上是紐約、新澤西、大西洋中部，以及在某種程度上，北加州和洛杉磯，隨著 2025 年的到來，我們確實看到了更顯著的改善。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Schall for any final comments.

女士們先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我將把最後的意見轉回給沙爾先生。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today, and we look forward to seeing many of you shortly at [NAREIT].

謝謝大家今天加入我們，我們期待很快在[納雷特]。

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。