艾芙隆海灣社區公司 (AVB) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to AvalonBay Communities First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Your host for today's conference call is Mr. Jason Reilley, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Reilly, you may begin your conference call.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加 AvalonBay 社區 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明） 今天電話會議的主持人是投資者關係副總裁 Jason Reilley 先生。賴利先生，您可以開始電話會議了。

Thank you, Diego, and welcome to AvalonBay Communities First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Before we begin, please note that forward-looking statements may be made during this discussion. There are a variety of risks and uncertainties associated with forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially. There is a discussion of these risks and uncertainties in yesterday afternoon's press release as well as in the company's Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filed with the SEC.

謝謝迭戈，歡迎參加 AvalonBay 社群 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。在我們開始之前，請注意，討論期間可能會做出前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述存在多種風險和不確定性，實際結果可能有重大差異。昨天下午的新聞稿以及公司向 SEC 提交的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格中討論了這些風險和不確定性。

As usual, the press release does include an attachment with definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures and other terms, which may be used in today's discussion. The attachment is also available on our website at www.avalonbay.com/earnings. And we encourage you to refer to this information during the review of our operating results and financial performance.

像往常一樣，新聞稿確實包含一個附件，其中包含非公認會計準則財務指標和其他術語的定義和調節，這些術語可能會在今天的討論中使用。此配件也可在我們的網站 www.avalonbay.com/earnings 上取得。我們鼓勵您在審查我們的經營業績和財務表現時參考這些資訊。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Ben Schall, CEO and President of AvalonBay Communities, for his remarks. Ben?

接下來，我將把電話轉給 AvalonBay Communities 執行長兼總裁 Ben Schall，聽取他的演講。本？

Thanks, Jason, and good morning, everyone. I'm joined by Sean Breslin, our Chief Operating Officer; Matt Birenbaum, our Chief Investment Officer; and Kevin O'Shea, our Chief Financial Officer. Sean will speak to our operating outperformance year-to-date and our positive momentum as we enter the prime leasing season. Matt will discuss the continued outperformance of our developments and lease-up and how we are strategically deploying capital to generate value. And Kevin is here for questions and is more than happy to speak to our preeminent balance sheet and liquidity profile.

謝謝傑森，大家早安。我們的營運長 Sean Breslin 也加入了我的行列。馬特‧比倫鮑姆 (Matt Birenbaum)，我們的首席投資長；和我們的財務長 Kevin O'Shea。肖恩將談論我們今年迄今為止的營運表現以及進入黃金租賃季節時的積極勢頭。馬特將討論我們的開發和租賃的持續出色表現，以及我們如何策略性地部署資本來創造價值。凱文在這裡回答問題，並且非常樂意談論我們卓越的資產負債表和流動性狀況。

Utilizing our earnings presentation. Slide 4 provides the highlights for the quarter and identify these key themes as we look ahead. First and foremost, we are off to a strong start to 2024 with first quarter results outpacing expectations. We were able to build occupancy earlier than expected, and we also experienced meaningful improvements in bad debt in February and March.

利用我們的收益演示。幻燈片 4 提供了本季的亮點，並在我們展望未來時確定了這些關鍵主題。首先也是最重要的是，我們在 2024 年有了一個良好的開端，第一季的業績超出了預期。我們能夠比預期更早增加入住率，而且 2 月和 3 月的壞帳也有了顯著的改善。

Second, we feel well positioned as we enter the peak leasing season, given low turnover, solid occupancy and positive rental rate momentum. We also expect our suburban coastal footprint to continue to outperform, given steady and improved demand drivers and (inaudible) delivering in our markets versus the rest of the country.

其次，鑑於低成交量、穩定的入住率和積極的租金率勢頭，隨著進入租賃旺季，我們感覺處於有利位置。我們也預計，鑑於穩定和改善的需求驅動因素以及我們市場相對於全國其他地區的交付（聽不清楚），我們的郊區沿海足跡將繼續表現出色。

Given our first quarter outperformance, applications for Q2 and improvement in underlying trends, we have increased our full year guidance. We also remain laser-focused on executing on our strategic initiatives, including our operating model transformation. We remain on track here to deliver $80 million incremental annual NOI uplift from our operating (inaudible), a target we raised from $55 million at our Investor Day in November.

鑑於我們第一季的優異表現、第二季的申請以及基本趨勢的改善，我們提高了全年指引。我們也繼續專注於執行我們的策略舉措，包括我們的營運模式轉型。我們仍有望從我們的營運中實現每年 8,000 萬美元的 NOI 增量成長（聽不清楚），這是我們在 11 月份投資者日籌集的 5,500 萬美元的目標。

And finally, with one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector, we are focused on growth opportunities in which we can tap our strategic capabilities from our operating prowess to our development strength to drive outsized returns for shareholders. With that summary, let me go a layer deeper on our results, the wider supply and demand backdrop and our increase to guidance.

最後，憑藉該行業最強勁的資產負債表之一，我們專注於成長機會，在這些機會中，我們可以利用我們的策略能力，從我們的營運能力到我們的發展實力，為股東帶來豐厚的回報。有了這個總結，讓我更深入地了解我們的結果、更廣泛的供需背景以及我們對指導的增加。

For the quarter, as shown on Slide 5, we produced core FFO growth of 5.1%, which was 350 basis points above our prior outlook. Same-store revenue growth increased 4.2% and 90 basis points better than our prior outlook. And our developments and lease-up are seeing strong absorption and achieving rents and returns above pro forma.

如投影片 5 所示，本季核心 FFO 成長率為 5.1%，比我們先前的預期高出 350 個基點。同店營收成長 4.2%，比我們先前的預期好 90 個基點。我們的開發和租賃業務吸收能力強勁，租金和回報率均高於預估。

Slide 6 shows the components of the Q1 core FFO outperformance with the bulk of the increase coming from higher same-store NOI. Revenues exceeded our prior outlook by $0.04. Expenses in the first quarter were $0.03 better than expected, while we note that $0.02 of this $0.03 is estimated to be timing related or in other words, expenses we still expect to incur just later in the year than we had originally forecast.

幻燈片 6 顯示了第一季核心 FFO 優異表現的組成部分，其中大部分成長來自於更高的同店 NOI。收入超出我們之前的預期 0.04 美元。第一季的費用比預期好 0.03 美元，而我們注意到，這 0.03 美元中的 0.02 美元估計與時間相關，或者換句話說，我們仍然預計今年會比我們最初預測的晚些時候產生費用。

Turning to Slide 7. Demand for our portfolio is benefiting from more job growth than originally forecasted. For our job growth estimates, we look to the National Association of Business Economics, or NABE, which has now increased its estimate to 1.6 million new jobs in 2024, up from the prior estimate of 700,000 jobs. This better job outlook provides an incremental list of demand, not necessarily on the same trajectory as it may have in the past, given that a disproportionate share of these additional jobs may be part-time and seem to be more concentrated in lower-paying sectors of the economy.

轉向投影片 7。對於我們的就業成長預測，我們參考了美國商業經濟協會 (NABE)，該協會目前已將 2024 年新增就業崗位的估計數從先前的 70 萬個就業人數估計數上調至 160 萬個。這種更好的就業前景提供了一系列增量需求，但不一定與過去的軌跡相同，因為這些額外工作中不成比例的比例可能是兼職，而且似乎更集中在低薪行業經濟的。

As shown on the right-hand side of Slide 7, demand for (inaudible) also continues to benefit from the differential in the cost of owning a home versus renting. This is true across most of the country but particularly pronounced in our markets, given the level of home prices, resulting in it being more than $2,000 per month more expensive to own versus rent a home. And this differential translates into record low numbers of residents leaving us to buy a home.

如投影片 7 右邊所示，對（聽不清楚）的需求也持續受益於擁有房屋與租屋成本的差異。這種情況在全國大部分地區都是如此，但在我們的市場上尤其明顯，考慮到房價水平，導致買房比租房每月貴 2,000 美元以上。這種差異導致離開我們去買房子的居民數量創歷史新低。

Turning to supply on Slide 8. As we emphasized at our Investor Day, our suburban coastal portfolio, 71% suburban today and headed towards 80% suburban, faces significantly less new supply than many of our peers. In our established regions, deliveries will be 1.5% of stock this year and in line with historical averages.

轉向幻燈片8 上的供應。同行。在我們已建立的地區，今年的交貨量將佔庫存的 1.5%，與歷史平均值一致。

In the Sunbelt, by contrast, deliveries will be 3.8% of stock in 2024, significantly above historical averages. And with the lease-up of a typical project taking an additional 12 to 18 months, the pressure on rents and occupancy in the Sunbelt will last, at least, through the end of 2025, if not into 2026.

相較之下，在陽光地帶，2024 年交付量將佔庫存的 3.8%，遠高於歷史平均值。由於典型專案的租賃時間需要額外 12 至 18 個月，陽光地帶的租金和入住率壓力將持續至少 2025 年底，甚至持續到 2026 年。

This weaker operating performance in the Sunbelt is, in turn, starting to weigh on asset values there, which provides a more attractive opportunity for us to acquire assets below replacement costs as we continue on our journey of growing our expansion market portfolio from 8% today to our 25% target. With the supply demand backdrop and our outperformance year-to-date, we are increasing our full year core FFO guidance estimate to $10.91 per share for a 2.6% increase relative to 2023.

陽光地帶較弱的經營績效反過來開始影響那裡的資產價值，這為我們提供了一個更具吸引力的機會，以低於重置成本的價格收購資產，因為我們繼續將我們的擴張市場投資組合從目前的8% 擴大到成長。鑑於供需背景以及我們今年迄今的優異表現，我們將全年核心 FFO 指導預期提高至每股 10.91 美元，較 2023 年增長 2.6%。

With the detail on Slides 9 and 10, the bulk of the increase is in higher NOI driven mainly by higher revenue with same-store revenue growth now projected to be 3.1%, up from 2.6% in our original outlook.

根據幻燈片 9 和 10 的詳細信息，增長的大部分來自較高的 NOI，這主要是由收入增加推動的，同店收入增長目前預計為 3.1%，高於我們最初預期的 2.6%。

Before turning it to Sean, I'd also like to take a moment to thank the team and the wider AvalonBay associate base, who continue to execute at a high level and above plan. It is energizing to see the organization executing on the priorities that we detailed at our Investor Day, a collective set of initiatives that we are confident will deliver superior growth in the near term and in the years ahead.

在將其交給 Sean 之前，我還想花一點時間感謝團隊和更廣泛的 AvalonBay 員工基礎，他們繼續執行高水平和更高的計劃。看到該組織執行我們在投資者日詳細說明的優先事項，我們相信這些舉措將在短期內和未來幾年實現卓越的增長，這令人振奮。

And with that, I'll turn it to Sean to go deeper and provide his perspectives.

接下來，我將請 Sean 更深入地提供他的觀點。

All right. Thanks, Ben. Turning to Slide 11. The primary drivers of our 90 basis points of revenue growth outperformance in Q1 were economic occupancy, which accounted for roughly 1/3 of the total outperformance for the quarter; and underlying bad debt, which represented another roughly 20%.

好的。謝謝，本。轉向投影片 11。以及潛在壞賬，約佔 20%。

Occupancy was about 30 basis points higher than expected, an increase from the mid-95% range at the end of last year to the high 95s for the quarter. While we expected occupancy to grow during Q1, it increased more quickly than we anticipated, reflecting strength in the underlying demand for our primarily coastal suburban portfolio and very limited new supply.

入住率比預期高出約 30 個基點，從去年年底的 95% 左右上升到本季的 95% 左右。雖然我們預計第一季入住率將成長，但成長速度比我們預期的要快，反映出對我們主要沿海郊區投資組合的潛在需求強勁，而新增供應非常有限。

In terms of underlying bad debt from residents. We ended up about 25 basis points favorable to our original expectations for the quarter, with all the improvement being realized in February and March. January was in line with budget at roughly 2.2% (inaudible) declined materially to 1.8% in February and again to 1.6% in March, which is roughly 60 basis points below our original budget.

就居民的潛在壞帳而言。我們最終對本季的預期提高了約 25 個基點，所有改善均在 2 月和 3 月實現。 1 月與預算一致，約 2.2%（聽不清楚），2 月大幅下降至 1.8%，3 月再次下降至 1.6%，比我們最初的預算低約 60 個基點。

We experienced a similar dip in May of last year. The bad debt has been reverted to higher levels in June. Therefore, while we're encouraged by results in February and March, we need to see a few more months at these lower levels to feel confident that we'll experience consistently better performance moving forward.

去年五月我們也經歷了類似的下滑。 6月份壞帳已恢復至較高水準。因此，雖然我們對 2 月和 3 月的業績感到鼓舞，但我們需要再觀察幾個月的較低水平，才能確信我們將持續獲得更好的業績。

From a geographic perspective, the favorable variance to our initial expectations was more material in New England, New York, New Jersey, Seattle and, to a lesser degree, in Northern and Southern California.

從地理角度來看，與我們最初預期的有利差異在新英格蘭、紐約、新澤西、西雅圖更為明顯，而在北加州和南加州則較小。

Moving to Slide 12. Key portfolio indicators are very healthy during Q1, and our portfolio is well positioned for the prime leasing season. In Chart 1, turnover remains well below historical norms, in part due to a very low level of move-outs to purchase a home.

轉到投影片 12。在圖 1 中，成交量仍遠低於歷史正常水平，部分原因是搬出購屋的水平非常低。

During Q1, only 7% of our residents moved out of one of our communities to purchase a home. It wasn't that long ago that we highlighted 12% to 13% of move-outs, purchasing a home as being low. 7% is extremely low relative to the long-term average of 16% to 17% and certainly reflects the favorable rent versus own economics in our established regions as Ben referenced earlier.

第一季度，只有 7% 的居民搬出我們的一個社區購買房屋。不久前，我們也強調了 12% 至 13% 的搬離、購買房屋的比例較低。相對於 16% 至 17% 的長期平均水平，7% 是極低的，這無疑反映了 Ben 之前提到的我們既定地區相對於自身經濟的有利租金。

Given the low level of turnover, availability has been relatively stable and supportive of above-average asking rent growth recently, which is reflected in Chart 3 and accelerating rent change, which is reflected in Chart 4.

鑑於成交量較低，供應量相對穩定，支持最近高於平均水平的租金增長（如圖 3 所示）和加速的租金變化（如圖 4 所示）。

As expected, our East Coast regions delivered the strongest rent change in Q1 at 2.7% with the East Coast established regions trending at 3% range, while Florida was sub-1%. We experienced positive momentum in rent change throughout the quarter across the East Coast markets, which was particularly notable in Mid-Atlantic, while performance in the District of Columbia has been soft and volatile due to a number of issues, including the impact of new supply.

正如預期的那樣，我們的東海岸地區在第一季的租金變化最為強勁，達到 2.7%，其中東海岸成熟地區的租金變化趨勢為 3%，而佛羅裡達州則低於 1%。我們在整個季度東海岸市場的租金變化呈現出積極的勢頭，這在大西洋中部尤為明顯，而哥倫比亞特區的表現則由於一系列問題（包括新供應的影響）而表現疲軟且不穩定。

The Northern Virginia and Maryland suburbs have demonstrated continued positive momentum. Rent change for the West Coast regions was 1.3% during the quarter, with the Seattle market leading at 2.8%, which further increased into the mid-4% range for April. While urban Seattle is still soft due to a significant amount of new supply and weaker demand, performance across our primary suburban portfolio improved meaningfully during the quarter.

維吉尼亞州北部和馬裡蘭州郊區表現出持續的積極勢頭。本季西海岸地區的租金變動為 1.3%，西雅圖市場領先，為 2.8%，4 月進一步升至 4% 左右的區間。儘管由於大量新增供應和需求疲軟，西雅圖市區仍然疲軟，但我們主要郊區投資組合的表現在本季度顯著改善。

In Northern California, while the underpinnings of better performance are starting to appear, it's not yet having a meaningful impact on current performance. Rent change was flat for the quarter with a positive rent change in San Jose being offset by negative rent change in San Francisco and the East Bay.

在北加州，雖然更好的業績的基礎開始顯現，但尚未對當前的業績產生有意義的影響。本季租金變動持平，聖荷西的正租金變動被舊金山和東灣的負租金變動所抵銷。

Transitioning to Slide 13 to address our updated revenue outlook for the year. We now expect same-store revenue growth of 3.1% for 2024, an increase of 50 basis points from our original guidance. The increased outlook is primarily driven by stronger lease rates as higher occupancy at the start of the year has allowed us to begin to achieve higher rental rates than we originally anticipated as we move into the prime leasing season.

轉到投影片 13 以闡述我們更新的今年營收前景。我們現在預計 2024 年同店營收成長 3.1%，將比我們最初的指導提高 50 個基點。前景的提高主要是由於租賃率上升，因為年初的入住率較高，使我們在進入黃金租賃季節時開始實現比最初預期更高的租金率。

We now expect like-term effective rent change in the mid-2% range, about a 50 basis point increase from our original outlook. The second quarter should trend up into the low 3% range before decelerating in the back half of the year, consistent with seasonal norms.

我們現在預計近期有效租金變動將在 2% 左右，比我們最初的預期增加約 50 個基點。第二季的成長率應該會上升到 3% 的低位，然後在今年下半年減速，這與季節性正常情況一致。

We expect renewals in the low to mid-4% range for the balance of the year, while new move-ins average roughly 50 basis points, which reflects the low 2% range for Q2 move-ins before experiencing the normal seasonal decline in Q3 and Q4. In addition, we're projecting a greater contribution from the improvement in underlying bad debt with a full year rate of 1.7%, down from 2.4% last year and slightly more rent relief.

我們預計今年餘下時間的續租率將在4% 的低至中水平範圍內，而新入住的平均價格約為50 個基點，這反映了在第三季度經歷正常季節性下降之前第二季度入住率的2% 低範圍和 Q4。此外，我們預期基礎壞帳改善的貢獻更大，全年率為 1.7%，低於去年的 2.4%，租金減免幅度略有增加。

And finally, moving to Slide 14, you can see where we're projecting stronger revenue performance relative to our original outlook. We're expecting the most significant improvement in Seattle and New England, which outperformed our expectations in Q1 and accelerated further into April, with both regions delivering greater than 4% rent change followed by Metro New York.

最後，轉到投影片 14，您可以看到相對於我們最初的前景，我們預計哪些地方的收入表現會更強。我們預計西雅圖和新英格蘭地區的改善最為顯著，第一季的表現超出了我們的預期，並在 4 月進一步加速，這兩個地區的租金變化均超過 4%，其次是紐約都會區。

The Mid-Atlantic is expected to modestly outperform our original expectations, supported by stronger performance in Northern Virginia and suburban Maryland. Southern California is also expected to perform modestly better than our original outlook, and we haven't changed our forecast for Northern California.

在維吉尼亞州北部和馬裡蘭州郊區強勁表現的支持下，大西洋中部地區的表現預計將略好於我們最初的預期。預計南加州的表現也將略好於我們最初的預期，我們也沒有改變北加州的預測。

So I'll turn it over to Matt to address recent lease-up performance and our capital allocation plan for 2024. Matt?

因此，我將把它交給馬特來解決最近的租賃業績和我們 2024 年的資本分配計劃。

All right. Thank you, Sean. Turning to our development communities. Slide 15 details the continued impressive results being generated by our lease-ups. The 6 development communities that had active leasing in Q1 are delivering rents $295 per month or 10% above our initial underwriting, which is translating into a 40 basis point increase in yield.

好的。謝謝你，肖恩。轉向我們的開發社群。幻燈片 15 詳細介紹了我們的租賃業務持續產生的令人印象深刻的業績。第一季活躍租賃的 6 個開發社區每月租金為 295 美元，比我們最初的承保高出 10%，這意味著收益率增加了 40 個基點。

And this performance is being supported by strong traffic and leasing velocity with these assets averaging 30 net leases per month in the seasonally slow first quarter, which grew throughout the quarter to nearly 40 per month in March. This outperformance is driven by 2 primary factors.

這一業績得到了強勁的流量和租賃速度的支持，這些資產在季節性放緩的第一季平均每月有 30 筆淨租賃，整個季度增長到 3 月份每月近 40 筆。這種優異的表現是由兩個主要因素所驅動的。

First, since we conservatively don't trend rents and report our development economics based on projected NOI at the time of construction start until the communities enter lease-up, there's usually rent growth during the construction period, which provides some incremental lift to our development yields by the time of their completion. And second, while we are pretty good at predicting how the market will respond to our latest state-of-the-art product offerings and new development, we do still frequently see some additional premium as the market responds to the unit and community features we incorporate into our designs.

首先，由於我們保守地不會根據施工開始時預計的NOI 來預測租金趨勢並報告我們的發展經濟學，直到社區進入租賃狀態，因此施工期間通常會出現租金增長，這為我們的發展提供了一些增量提升完成時的產量。其次，雖然我們非常擅長預測市場將如何回應我們最新的最先進的產品和新開發，但隨著市場對我們的單元和社群功能的回應，我們仍然經常看到一些額外的溢價。中。

Turning to Slide 16. While it was a quiet quarter for investment activity with no closed transactions or development starts, our investment plans for the year are still very much on track. We brought 4 assets in our established regions to the market in Q1, looking to take advantage of a potential lull in the investment sales market as many owners were waiting for interest rate cuts before getting going with their disposition plans. All 4 are now under agreement at pricing, consistent with our initial expectations with a weighted average cap rate of 5.1%.

轉向幻燈片 16。我們在第一季將成熟地區的 4 項資產推向市場，希望利用投資銷售市場潛在的平靜期，因為許多業主在實施處置計劃之前都在等待降息。所有 4 家公司現已就定價達成一致，與我們最初的預期一致，加權平均上限率為 5.1%。

We expect to redeploy some of the proceeds from these pending sales into acquisitions in our expansion regions in the coming months as we continue to make progress on our portfolio optimization objectives to increase our expansion market allocation to 25% over time. Planning for development starts is also proceeding as expected with our start activity this year concentrated in Q2 and Q3. We are seeing some helpful construction buyout savings in certain regions, which will allow us to preserve our targeted spread of 100 to 150 basis points between development yields and prevailing cap rates.

隨著我們繼續在投資組合優化目標上取得進展，隨著時間的推移將我們的擴張市場分配增加到25%，我們預計將在未來幾個月內將這些待售銷售的部分收益重新部署到我們擴張區域的收購中。開發啟動計劃也按預期進行，我們今年的啟動活動集中在第二季和第三季。我們看到某些地區的建築買斷節省了一些有用的資金，這將使我們能夠保持開發收益率與現行上限利率之間 100 至 150 個基點的目標價差。

And in our SIP book, we continue to be conservative but do expect to grow that business line modestly through the course of the year. Fortunately, the $200 million in commitments in the program today were all originated in the last 2 years, are geographically dispersed across our markets, concentrated in submarkets with less new supply pressure and have initial maturity dates that are still 2-plus years out. So we do not have any legacy overhang burdening our loan book.

在我們的 SIP 書中，我們繼續持保守態度，但確實希望在這一年中適度增長該業務線。幸運的是，今天該計劃中的2 億美元承諾全部源於過去2 年，在地理上分散在我們的市場中，集中在新增供應壓力較小的子市場，並且初始到期日仍有兩年多的時間。因此，我們的貸款帳簿上沒有任何遺留負擔。

It's also been interesting to see some larger portfolio transactions start to gain traction just in the past few weeks. This illustrates the continued attractiveness of our sector to private the capital and perhaps marks a shift in sentiment that might bring increased deal flow as the year progresses. We continue to preserve dry powder on our balance sheet so that we will be in a position to take advantage of future opportunities that may emerge, if they are aligned with our strategic priorities and our unique capabilities.

有趣的是，在過去幾週內，一些較大的投資組合交易開始受到關注。這說明了我們產業對私人資本的持續吸引力，或許標誌著情緒的轉變，隨著時間的推移，可能會帶來更多的交易流量。我們繼續在資產負債表上保留乾粉，以便我們能夠利用未來可能出現的機會，如果它們符合我們的策略重點和我們獨特的能力。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Ben to wrap things up.

接下來，我會交給 Ben 完成。

Thanks, Matt. Our results to date have exceeded our expectations, and we're excited for the momentum we have heading into the peak leasing season. Demand is stronger than originally expected, and our suburban coastal portfolio faces meaningfully less supply than elsewhere in the country. And we're confident that we will find opportunities to put our balance sheet and strategic capabilities to work to generate shareholder value.

謝謝，馬特。到目前為止，我們的業績超出了我們的預期，我們對進入租賃旺季的勢頭感到興奮。需求強於最初的預期，而且我們的郊區沿海投資組合面臨的供應明顯少於該國其他地方。我們相信，我們將找到機會利用我們的資產負債表和策略能力來創造股東價值。

I'll end our prepared remarks there and turn it to the operator to open the line for questions.

我將在此處結束我們準備好的發言，並將其交給接線員以開通提問線路。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Eric Wolfe with Citi.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的埃里克·沃爾夫（Eric Wolfe）。

It's Nick here with Eric. Maybe just on the capital allocation and then rotation into the Sunbelt. You made a comment in the prepared remarks about seeing opportunities below replacement costs. And so I was just curious if you can quantify kind of that. Obviously, it's probably range, but kind of how far below replacement costs you're seeing on average then also the size of the opportunity you're seeing in terms of product, I mean, on the market in those expansion markets.

尼克和埃里克在這裡。也許只是資本配置，然後輪流進入陽光地帶。您在準備好的評論中發表了關於看到低於重置成本的機會的評論。所以我很好奇你是否可以量化這一點。顯然，這可能是一個範圍，但是你看到的平均重置成本有多遠，以及你在產品方面看到的機會的大小，我的意思是，在那些擴張市場的市場上。

Yes. Sure. Nick, it's Matt. I would say the discount replacement cost is obviously going to vary to some extent based on the age of the asset. I mean, in theory, assets that are 10, 20 years old should be trading below replacement cost because there is some depreciation there.

是的。當然。尼克，是馬特。我想說，折扣重置成本顯然會根據資產的使用年資而有所不同。我的意思是，從理論上講，已有 10、20 年歷史的資產應該以低於重置成本的價格進行交易，因為存在一定的折舊。

But we are -- I'd say we are seeing assets that are 10 years old. It might be trading 15% to 20% below current replacement cost. We haven't seen kind of brand-new assets coming out of lease-up come to market yet at compelling prices. I think people are getting extensions on their construction loans, and there's a pretty active bridge lending space. So we would look at those as well.

但我想說的是，我們看到的資產已有 10 年歷史。它的交易價格可能比目前重置成本低 15% 到 20%。我們還沒有看到租賃後的全新資產以令人信服的價格進入市場。我認為人們正在延長他們的建築貸款，並且有一個相當活躍的過橋貸款空間。所以我們也會關注這些。

So younger assets, I would expect the discount to be a little bit less than that, but we haven't seen as much of that yet. The volume has been [light]. And that's one reason that supported cap rates honestly being lower than I would have thought they would have been, but there is a little bit of a scarcity premium. And on the one hand, we're taking advantage of that as a seller, and that's one reason we brought some assets to market early because we anticipated that might happen. But as a buyer, that's a little bit frustrating.

因此，對於年輕的資產，我預計折扣會比這個少一點，但我們還沒有看到那麼多。音量已[輕]。這就是為什麼支持資本化率確實低於我想像的原因之一，但存在一點稀缺溢價。一方面，我們作為賣家正在利用這一點，這也是我們提前將一些資產推向市場的原因之一，因為我們預計這種情況可能會發生。但作為買家，這有點令人沮喪。

Would you expect some of that product to start to come to market? Or do you think it's more -- owners right now will be more of a wait and hold? I'm just trying to understand how kind of the current supply and the rate uncertainty may impact kind of your acquisition strategy and maybe urgency into moving into these, if we fast forward a year or 2, and the supply picture has started to improve.

您預計該產品中的一些會開始進入市場嗎？或者你認為現在的業主會更多地等待並持有？我只是想了解當前的供應和利率不確定性可能會如何影響您的收購策略，以及如果我們快轉一兩年，供應情況已經開始改善，那麼可能會影響進入這些策略的緊迫性。

Yes. I mean, who knows? I would say that there is more volume coming. And if you talk to the brokers, they'll say they're pretty busy with [BOVs]. This is the seasonal time of the year when you start to see an uptick in transaction volume.

是的。我的意思是，誰知道呢？我想說的是，還會有更多的銷售量。如果您與經紀人交談，他們會說他們非常忙於 [BOV]。這是一年中交易量開始上升的季節。

Q1 volumes were down over -- below Q1 '23, which was down a lot from Q1 '22. And transaction volumes are now below where they were kind of in '17, '18, '19. So I think you will start to see some pickup in what might be available. And certainly, from our point of view, we're staying disciplined about it. But we are hopeful that we might move into an environment where we'll be able to start to accelerate our asset trading activity a little bit. We haven't done that much in the last, say, 4 or 5 quarters.

第一季銷量下降——低於 23 年第一季，比 22 年第一季下降很多。現在的交易量低於 17、18、19 年的水準。所以我認為你會開始看到一些可用的東西。當然，從我們的角度來看，我們對此保持紀律。但我們希望我們能夠進入一個能夠開始稍微加速資產交易活動的環境。在過去的四、五個季度中，我們並沒有做太多的事情。

Nick, I'll add a couple of comments, guess it's well put by Matt. I generally see as our window of opportunity being open for a decent period of time and 2 primary reasons: one, the supply dynamics that exist in the Sunbelt. Per my prepared remarks, we expect to be with us for a period of time. So that softness on rate and occupancy and a weight on asset values is we think, we'll be here.

尼克，我會添加一些評論，我想馬特說得很好。我通常認為我們的機會之窗會在相當長的一段時間內開放，有兩個主要原因：一是陽光地帶存在的供應動態。根據我準備好的發言，我們預計會與我們在一起一段時間。因此，我們認為，利率和入住率的疲軟以及資產價值的權重，我們會在這裡。

And then the second part is on kind of the capital world, which we're really just at the front part of the wave of maturities of deals done 2, 3, 4 years ago. So I agree with Matt, not seeing a ton today would -- also not seeing a ton of dislocation, but it is still early. And we think we're well prepared to take advantage of it for the right types of opportunities.

第二部分是關於資本世界的，我們確實處於 2、3、4 年前完成的交易到期浪潮的前沿。所以我同意馬特的觀點，今天不會看到太多——也不會看到大量錯位，但現在還為時過早。我們認為我們已經做好充分準備，可以利用它來獲得正確類型的機會。

And our next question comes from Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的傑米·費爾德曼。

Great. So I want to go back to a comment you made on -- I think you said rents and occupancy in the Sunbelt could last, at least, through '25. The pressure on rents and occupancy in the Sunbelt could last, at least, through '25 and possibly into '26. So first, I want to make sure I heard that correctly.

偉大的。所以我想回到你的評論——我想你說過陽光地帶的租金和入住率至少可以持續到 25 年。陽光地帶的租金和入住率面臨的壓力可能持續至少 25 年，甚至持續到 26 年。首先，我想確保我聽到的是正確的。

And secondly, can you just talk more about what gives you the confidence in saying that? And if you think about we've got spring leasing this year, then it slows down at the end of the year, then you've got spring leasing next year. I think a lot of people think things will get cleaned up by then. But your comments kind of indicate they probably won't. So just want to hear based on data you're seeing or what you're seeing on the ground of how you think that trajectory plays out.

其次，你能多談談是什麼讓你有信心這麼說嗎？如果你想想我們今年有春季租賃，那麼到年底它就會放緩，那麼明年就會有春季租賃。我想很多人都認為到那時事情就會得到清理。但你的評論表明他們可能不會。因此，只想根據您所看到的數據或您所看到的情況來聽聽您認為該軌跡如何發揮作用。

Yes, Jamie, I'll start with a couple of comments. So one is just the sort of the facts and the known dynamics that exist. Supply in the Sunbelt, yes, it is going to be peaking later this year, but it is going to remain elevated into 2025.

是的，傑米，我首先要發表一些評論。因此，其中之一就是存在的事實和已知的動態。是的，陽光地帶的供應量將在今年稍後達到峰值，但到 2025 年仍將保持在高水準。

Second known dynamic is we know when projects are -- we know which projects are under construction, you know when those projects are completing, and you know the period of time associated with lease-up. So that inherently takes you out another 12 to 15 months depending on the size of the project and the velocity of that lease-up.

第二個已知的動態是我們知道項目何時開始——我們知道哪些項目正在建設中，您知道這些項目何時完成，並且您知道與租賃相關的時間段。因此，這必然需要另外 12 到 15 個月的時間，具體取決於專案的規模和租賃的速度。

And then the third dynamic, and this gets into the impact on NOI is the rolling through of rent rolls over that period of time. And so when you then think about sort of the last dynamic and the last effective NOI impact, that gets you into that early 2026 type of time frame.

第三個動態對 NOI 產生影響，即這段時間內租金的滾動。因此，當您考慮最後的動態和最後有效的 NOI 影響時，您將進入 2026 年初的時間範圍。

It's the area where, in our minds, it's sort of -- it's one of those known industry dynamics. And to the extent the economic scenario has gotten better, but in a, call it, a slower growth economic environment, overlaid on high supply in certain submarkets, we expect there to continue to be pressure.

在我們看來，這是一個已知的產業動態之一。在經濟情勢有所改善的情況下，但在經濟成長放緩的環境下，再加上某些子市場的高供應量，我們預期壓力將持續存在。

Okay. And then are there specific markets? I mean I know we've heard Austin, and we were (inaudible) as kind of the poster child of the weakness. But when you think about all the Sunbelt markets, I mean, you're painting a pretty broad brush. Is there some that really stand out that will be in pain for longer?

好的。那麼有沒有特定的市場呢？我的意思是，我知道我們聽說過奧斯汀，而且我們（聽不清楚）是弱點的典型代表。但當你考慮所有陽光地帶市場時，我的意思是，你正在繪製一個相當廣泛的畫筆。是否有一些真正脫穎而出但會痛苦更長時間的人？

Yes. Austin would also be at the top of that list. Just look at percentage of stock coming online. That would be high up on the list. Generally, in the Sunbelt markets, the more urban-oriented submarkets are generally seeing the highest levels of supply coming online. And that's one of the reasons we've been conscious as we've been growing our expansion market portfolio to really push ourselves out further into those marketplaces out of a submarket or 2 with lower density product, lower price point. That is competing less directly with new supply.

是的。奧斯汀也將位居該名單的首位。只需查看上線庫存的百分比。那將在名單上名列前茅。一般來說，在陽光地帶市場，更面向城市的子市場通常會看到最高水準的線上供應。這就是我們一直意識到的原因之一，因為我們一直在擴大我們的擴展市場組合，以真正將自己進一步推向那些市場，從一個或兩個具有較低密度產品、較低價格點的子市場。這與新供應的直接競爭較少。

Okay. So it sounds like your Sunbelt expansion would still be mostly suburban, if you could find that.

好的。所以聽起來你的陽光地帶擴張仍然主要是在郊區，如果你能找到的話。

It is. Yes, that's been a very conscious choice of ours. And we also think about it as complementing what we're buying with what we're going to be building. And so even to make the point further, what we've been buying tends to be slightly older product, lower price point, lower density products. Recognizing that our development, while it still will be suburban, will tend to be mid-rise and a little bit higher price point, once it comes to market. So we think about that as just our overall -- we talk about at a portfolio level optimization, but we also very much focus on it in terms of a market and a submarket perspective.

這是。是的，這是我們非常有意識的選擇。我們也認為它是我們正在購買的產品和我們將要建造的產品的補充。因此，即使進一步說明這一點，我們購買的往往是稍舊的產品、較低的價格、較低密度的產品。認識到我們的開發項目雖然仍將是郊區的，但一旦進入市場，將傾向於中層建築和稍高的價格點。因此，我們認為這只是我們的整體——我們在投資組合層面討論最佳化，但我們也從市場和子市場的角度非常關注它。

And our next question comes from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Austin Wurschmidt。

Great. Matt, I just want to go back to the dispositions. You kind of highlighted the scarcity premium, but I'm curious if there was any specific factors related to the assets you sold sort of idiosyncratic factors that maybe benefited valuations you achieved? Or if you think that is reflective of valuations today? And then can you just share how deep the buyer pool was and whether or not there is financing contingencies?

偉大的。馬特，我只想回到性格上。您強調了稀缺性溢價，但我很好奇是否有任何與您出售的資產相關的特定因素（某種可能有利於您實現的估值的特殊因素）？或者您認為這反映了當今的估值？那麼您能否介紹一下買家池的深度以及是否有融資意外情況？

Sure. Well, the first thing I'd say is none of them have closed yet. So be able to provide more detail at the end -- on the second quarter call. But it's a pretty good mix. Three of the 4 assets are AVAs, so a little bit more urban than what we've been selling in the past, one in Jersey, one in Seattle, one in Boston, one in Southern California. So a good mix of geographies. And it continues to be a little bit of a bifurcated market.

當然。好吧，我要說的第一件事是他們還沒有關閉。因此，能夠在最後——第二季的電話會議上提供更多細節。但這是一個非常好的組合。 4 項資產中的 3 項是 AVA，因此比我們過去銷售的資產更加城市化，一項在澤西島，一項在西雅圖，一項在波士頓，一項在南加州。所以地理上的完美結合。而且它仍然是一個有點分歧的市場。

So the ones -- the smaller deals, kind of less than $100 million, tend to be either private buyers, [1031] buyers, syndicators, little bit less institutional. And then when you get into bigger assets, that's where probably those buyers are using less leverage. And the cap rates are little bit lower if you can find -- if that's more of an institutional bid.

因此，規模較小的交易，即低於 1 億美元的交易，往往是私人買家、[1031] 買家、辛迪加機構，或是機構投資者。然後，當您進入更大的資產時，這些買家可能會使用較少的槓桿。如果你能找到的話，上限利率會低一點——如果這更多的是機構出價的話。

But there's plenty of assets that are not getting that institutional bid. So it does really vary based on kind of where you are. And -- but one of the things that was a pleasant surprise is that even -- we have one larger urban asset, urban Boston, which is a relatively [fair] market. And the bid was probably deeper there than any of the others actually.

但有很多資產沒有得到機構的競標。所以它確實根據你所在的地方而有所不同。而且 - 但令人驚訝的事情之一是 - 我們擁有一個更大的城市資產，波士頓城市，這是一個相對[公平]的市場。事實上，那裡的出價可能比其他地方都高。

That's helpful detail. Just switching over to operations. Just wanted to hit on sort of the Bay Area commentary. You mentioned, I think, that the underpinnings of positive momentum were there. What's it going to take for that to translate into outperformance and sort of a little bit better and maybe less volatile fundamental backdrop? The Bay Area and then any other West Coast submarkets as well?

這是有用的細節。只需切換到操作即可。只是想聽聽灣區的評論。我認為你提到積極勢頭的基礎已經存在。怎樣才能轉化為優異的表現以及稍微好一點、波動性較小的基本面背景？灣區以及其他西海岸子市場？

Yes, so it's Sean. Good question and the question, I think, on a lot of people's minds. I think the way I describe it is, first, supply should not be an issue for an extended period of time. There are 1 or 2 assets in San Francisco as an example that are finishing lease-up.

是的，所以是肖恩。這是一個很好的問題，我想這個問題是很多人都關心的。我認為我的描述是，首先，供應在很長一段時間內不應該成為問題。以舊金山為例，有 1 或 2 個資產正在完成租賃。

But given the nature of the product, economics, timelines, that won't be an issue for a long period of time. It's really more on the demand side and making sure that I think for the most part, what we're hearing on the ground is that we really just do need business leaders to be more confident in bringing people back to their respective offices and opening offices in San Francisco.

但考慮到產品的性質、經濟性、時間表，這在很長一段時間內都不會成為問題。這實際上更多是在需求方面，並確保我認為在很大程度上，我們在實地聽到的是，我們確實需要企業領導者更有信心將人們帶回各自的辦公室並開設辦事處在舊金山。

What's underneath that is making sure that the associate population for all those various employers is comfortable being in that market, kind of living (inaudible) life issues. Certainly, the political dynamic has started to shift in a meaningful way. There seems to be some positive momentum there, but that takes time.

背後是確保所有這些不同雇主的相關人群在這個市場中感到舒適，這是一種生活（聽不清楚）的生活問題。當然，政治動態已經開始發生有意義的轉變。那裡似乎有一些積極的勢頭，但這需要時間。

So that's why I'd say that, that is probably the most important thing. Obviously, job growth matters, and it's been a little bit choppy. But we are seeing some good signs of life, particularly given the generative AI boom, so to speak. But it has not manifested itself into thousands of jobs showing up yet in these markets.

所以這就是為什麼我會這麼說，這可能是最重要的事情。顯然，就業成長很重要，而且有點不穩定。但可以說，我們看到了一些良好的生命跡象，特別是考慮到生成式人工智慧的繁榮。但它還沒有體現在這些市場上出現的數以千計的工作。

And so I think the broad view around technology and that being the epicenter of sort of technology innovation is still present, more the confidence about bringing people back to work, particularly in San Francisco, I would say. We're starting to see signs of life of that in San Jose. There's more short-term demand than there has been for the last couple of years. That's an initial indicator that's positive. But it's sort of a mixed bag as it relates to San Francisco and certain parts of the East Bay.

因此，我認為圍繞著技術的廣泛觀點以及作為某種技術創新中心的觀點仍然存在，我想說的是，人們更有信心讓人們重返工作崗位，尤其是在舊金山。我們開始在聖荷西看到這種活力的跡象。短期需求比過去幾年多。這是一個正面的初步指標。但這是一個混合體，因為它與舊金山和東灣的某些地區有關。

And so just one quick follow-up there. I mean is that sort of sequential improvement, Seattle and Bay Area, are those -- given we weren't hearing you talk about this 3 to 6 months ago, I guess, is that year-to-date improvement in asking rents being driven by those West Coast markets specifically? Or is it just more broad and related to the lower turnover, et cetera, that you're seeing?

因此，只需進行一次快速跟進即可。我的意思是，西雅圖和灣區的這種連續改善就是這些——考慮到我們在3 到6 個月前沒有聽到你談論這個問題，我想，是今年迄今為止在租金要價方面的改善所推動的特別是那些西海岸市場？或者它只是更廣泛並且與您所看到的較低營業額等相關？

Yes. I mean as it relates to this trend at asking rents, that's primarily driven by the East Coast markets. And if you look at it on a year-over-year basis, the East Coast markets are up 2% to 3% versus the West Coast markets are up about 1% roughly. That's being supported by markets like San Diego, Orange County, parts of L.A. Certainly, Seattle has had a nice recovery.

是的。我的意思是，因為它與租金要價的趨勢有關，這主要是由東海岸市場推動的。如果你比去年同期來看，東岸市場上漲了 2% 到 3%，而西岸市場則上漲了約 1%。這得到了聖地牙哥、橘郡、洛杉磯部分地區等市場的支持。

We've been surprised, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, about Seattle. The trends and the firming in Seattle certainly seems to have sort of a greater foundation to it than what we've seen in the Bay Area just yet. And part of what's driving the effective rent change in Seattle in Q1 and into April is a pretty significant reduction in concessions.

正如我在準備好的演講中提到的，我們對西雅圖感到驚訝。西雅圖的趨勢和堅挺似乎比我們在灣區所看到的更有基礎。推動西雅圖第一季和四月有效租金變化的部分原因是優惠的大幅減少。

Concession volume for us, as an example, from Q4 to Q1, it was down about 70%. We incurred almost 900,000 in concessions in Q4 versus [275] in Q1 of '24 versus in the Bay Area, it was down about 20%. So you're seeing good trends, but I would say it's not being broadly supported yet by Northern California, more so the Southern California markets in Seattle as it relates to the West Coast.

以我們為例，從第四季到第一季度，優惠量下降了約 70%。我們在第四季度獲得了近 90 萬個優惠，而 24 年第一季為 [275] 個，與灣區相比，下降了約 20%。所以你看到了良好的趨勢，但我想說的是，它還沒有得到北加州的廣泛支持，尤其是西雅圖的南加州市場，因為它與西海岸有關。

Our next question comes from Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Steve Sakwa。

Sorry. Sorry about that. Sorry. I guess on the Slide 13, the economic occupancy for 2024 is basically showing kind of no improvement. So I'm not sure what was in the initial outlook. But clearly, you had a 30 basis point pickup in the first quarter. And I think the [comps] actually get easier as time goes on. So I'm just curious, and given the top of funnel demand that you talked about being reasonably strong, I guess I'm just curious why you're not assuming maybe improved occupancy? Or is there something you're doing on the rate side that might keep occupancy growth at bay?

對不起。對於那個很抱歉。對不起。我猜想在投影片 13 上，2024 年的經濟入住率基本上沒有任何改善。所以我不確定最初的展望是什麼。但顯然，第一季的成長率為 30 個基點。我認為隨著時間的推移，[comps]實際上會變得更容易。所以我只是好奇，考慮到您所說的漏斗頂部的需求相當強勁，我想我只是好奇為什麼您不假設入住率可能會有所改善？或者您在費率方面正在採取哪些措施可能會抑制入住率成長？

Yes, Steve, it's Sean. It's really 2 factors. One is what you described. We've seen sort of a faster improvement in occupancy. We experienced that in Q1. That is quickly translating to rate acceleration, which actually puts a little bit of pressure on occupancy.

是的，史蒂夫，我是肖恩。這其實是兩個因素。一種是你所描述的。我們看到入住率有了更快的改善。我們在第一季就經歷過這一點。這很快就會轉化為速率加速，這實際上給入住率帶來了一點壓力。

And the other thing, if you think about it from a revenue standpoint with higher rates, the dollar value of each vacant unit is actually higher. So it doesn't contribute as much to revenue as you might think when you look at it from that perspective. Anything that is vacant is worth more, and so it does sort of weigh on the revenue side of it. But those are the 2 primary reasons. In terms of physical occupancy, we expect it to be roughly about a push by the time we get to year-end relative to our original guidance. And that's why it shows up that way on the slide.

另一方面，如果你從收入的角度考慮，利率較高，每個空置單位的美元價值實際上更高。因此，從這個角度來看，它對收入的貢獻並不像你想像的那麼大。任何空置的東西都更值錢，因此它確實會影響其收入方面。但這是兩個主要原因。就實際入住率而言，我們預計到年底時，相對於我們最初的指導，其實際入住率將大致有所提高。這就是為什麼它在幻燈片上以這種方式顯示。

Okay. And maybe as a follow-up, I think I heard -- I think you said that you were expecting about 4% on renewal growth, if I wasn't mistaken, maybe for the balance of the year. I don't know if I heard you say where you were sending out renewal notices for kind of the May, June, July period. But are those going out at substantially better than 4%, and you're assuming some discounting? Or could there maybe be some upside to that 4% number?

好的。也許作為後續行動，我想我聽說——我想你說過，如果我沒記錯的話，你預計今年剩餘時間的續約成長率約為 4%。我不知道我是否聽到你說過你在哪裡發送五月、六月、七月期間的續訂通知。但是，如果您假設有一些折扣，那麼這些商品的折扣是否明顯高於 4%？或者這個 4% 的數字可能還有一些上升空間嗎？

Yes. You're correct. I did not state renewal offers. But renewal offers for May and June are around the high 5% range. So expecting them to settle sort of in the low to mid 4s is reasonable based on historical norms.

是的。你是對的。我沒有說明續約優惠。但 5 月和 6 月的續約報價約為 5% 左右。因此，根據歷史標準，期望它們穩定在 4 中低端是合理的。

Got it. And then just lastly on development, Matt. You guys are starting a couple of new projects here, I think, in the second quarter. Can just remind us, what are you targeting on new projects today? I know that there's been some upside on the things you're delivering, but what's kind of the new hurdle in light of today's new interest rate environment?

知道了。最後是關於開發，馬特。我想，你們將在第二季在這裡啟動幾個新專案。請提醒我們，您今天的新專案目標是什麼？我知道你們提供的東西有一些好處，但鑑於當今新的利率環境，新的障礙是什麼？

Yes, Steve, I guess, we -- there's actually -- it's not one number. There are different target yields for different markets and even down to different submarkets and also based on the risk profile of the deal. But we're generally looking for that 100 to 150 basis point spread to cap rates. What that's translating into kind of on average is probably a mid- to high 6s target yield. And then it's going to be lower in markets where deals that are less risky or markets where we expect stronger growth because ultimately, it's about the full investment return, the IRR. And it's going to be higher in markets that have the inverse of that.

是的，史蒂夫，我想，我們——實際上——這不是一個數字。不同的市場甚至不同的子市場都有不同的目標收益率，並且還基於交易的風險狀況。但我們通常希望上限利率有 100 到 150 個基點的利差。平均而言，這可能意味著中高的 6 倍目標收益率。然後，在交易風險較小的市場或我們預期成長較強勁的市場中，它會更低，因為最終，它關乎全部投資回報（IRR）。而在與之相反的市場中，這個數字將會更高。

And so where you see where deals actually clearing those today, we expect to start a deal in suburban Boston in kind of the mid 6s, which maps well to where cap rates are in those markets. We expect to start a deal in suburban Jersey, which is around a 7 because cap rates are higher in that market. And then Mid-Atlantic, it would also be around the 7, and then some of our expansion regions that might be a little lower than that, closer to 6.

因此，如果您看到今天的交易實際清算的地方，我們預計將在 6 年代中期在波士頓郊區開始交易，這很好地反映了這些市場的資本化率。我們預計將在澤西郊區開始交易，該地區的資本化率約為 7，因為該市場的資本化率較高。然後大西洋中部，也將在 7 左右，然後我們的一些擴展區域可能會比這稍低一些，接近 6。

And our next question comes from Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當·克萊默。

Just wanted to ask about your expectations for West Coast markets. I think these are markets that lagged a little bit if I just look at your kind of market-by-market effective (inaudible) growth in the supplemental. But they also have pretty high expectations for same-store revenue if I'm looking at your presentation correctly.

只是想問一下您對西海岸市場的期望。如果我只看補充中逐個市場的有效（聽不清楚）成長，我認為這些市場有點滯後。但如果我正確地看待你的演示，他們對同店收入也有相當高的期望。

So I just wanted to ask you about kind of what's the delta there? Are there kind of outsized growth expected there in -- for the rest of the year that's going to bring same-store revenue to be one of the best-performing markets there, if I'm looking at your slide deck?

所以我只是想問你那裡的三角洲是什麼？如果我看一下你的幻燈片，預計今年剩下的時間裡，那裡的同店收入是否會大幅成長，從而成為表現最好的市場之一？

Yes, Adam, it's Sean. Good question. And one of the factors to keep in mind is what's changing in underlying bad debt across the markets. If you think about it, it was like rent change is one component, but changes in occupancy, bad debt, et cetera. And particularly for the Southern California market, I would say that is a meaningful contributor to total revenue growth in 2024.

是的，亞當，是肖恩。好問題。需要記住的因素之一是整個市場的潛在壞帳的變化。如果你仔細想想，就好像租金變化是其中一個組成部分，但入住率、壞帳等方面的變化也是如此。特別是對於南加州市場，我認為這對 2024 年總收入成長做出了有意義的貢獻。

To give you some sense in the first quarter, I think Southern California, roughly 40% of the revenue growth was related to just better underlying bad debt as we're -- those folks out, seeing the churn and then rerenting those units to people who are paying. So that is a driver. There's a table in the back. There are lots of attachment that gives you the change that we're seeing over the last few quarters in bad debt, and that may help you kind of map a little bit better.

為了讓你對第一季有所了解，我認為南加州大約40% 的收入成長與更好的潛在壞帳有關，因為我們——那些人出去了，看到了客戶流失，然後將這些單位重新出租給人們誰在付錢。所以這是一個司機。後面有一張桌子。有許多附件可以讓您看到過去幾個季度壞帳的變化，這可能會幫助您更好地繪製地圖。

Great. And just maybe as a follow-up. You guys provided a really helpful kind of expectations for new and renewal growth for the whole year. And apologies if you've talked about this already today, but maybe just walk us through kind of what the updated expectations would be.

偉大的。也許只是作為後續行動。你們對全年的新增長和更新增長提出了非常有幫助的期望。如果您今天已經談論過這個問題，我們深表歉意，但也許您可以向我們介紹更新後的期望。

I think renewals prior were 4%. New was roughly flat, leading to 2% blended growth. Maybe just walk us through what the updated expectations are assuming with the new guidance that those may be a little bit higher than they were previously.

我認為之前的續訂率為 4%。新業務大致持平，導致混合成長 2%。也許只是讓我們了解更新後的預期在新指導下的假設，這些預期可能會比以前高一點。

Yes. What I mentioned in my prepared remarks is that we expect like-term effective rent change kind of in the mid-2% range, which is about 50 basis points above our original outlook. What I indicated is that the second quarter should trend up probably in the low 3% range before decelerating in the back half of the year.

是的。我在準備好的發言中提到的是，我們預計短期有效租金變化約為 2% 左右，比我們最初的預期高出約 50 個基點。我指出的是，第二季可能會在 3% 的低點範圍內呈上升趨勢，然後在今年下半年減速。

As it relates to renewals, kind of low to mid-4% range for the balance of the year, while new move-ins averaged roughly 50 basis points, which sort of reflects maybe the low 2% range for Q2, before experiencing kind of the normal seasonal decline in Q3 and Q4. So that's kind of how we're looking at it right now.

就續約而言，今年餘下的時間範圍為低至中4%，而新遷入平均約為50 個基點，這在某種程度上反映了第二季度的低2% 範圍，然後才經歷了某種程度的下降。這就是我們現在的看法。

Our next question comes from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John Kim。

Part of your beat and guidance raise was due to better-than-expected capital markets activity. And I was wondering what component of capital markets outperformed your expectations. Last quarter, you gave a pretty good breakdown on that $0.29 headwind, which has improved slightly.

您的績效預期和指引上調的部分原因是資本市場活動優於預期。我想知道資本市場的哪些部分超出了您的預期。上個季度，您對 0.29 美元的逆風進行了很好的細分，情況略有改善。

Yes, John, this is Kevin. Really, the $0.02 from better-than-expected capital markets activity was primarily driven by a combination of favorable interest expense and interest income as well as slightly higher budgeted -- higher-than-budgeted capital interest expense. So it's really in those categories where most of the favorability was realized.

是的，約翰，這是凱文。實際上，資本市場活動好於預期的 0.02 美元主要是由有利的利息支出和利息收入以及略高於預算的資本利息支出共同推動的。所以，正是在這些類別中，大多數的好感度得到了體現。

What about your cap rate expectations either on sales or investments?

您對銷售或投資的資本化率預期如何？

Well, I was referring to Q1. We didn't have any transactions that closed in Q1. So transaction activity cap rates did not really have an impact. As you look at the full year guidance, we expect basically due to adjustments in a range of things that fall with the capital markets activity such as buying and selling assets and then movement of interest rates on existing debt and additional debt activity that we have anticipated.

嗯，我指的是 Q1。我們在第一季沒有完成任何交易。因此，交易活動上限率並沒有真正產生影響。當您查看全年指引時，我們預計主要是由於資本市場活動帶來的一系列因素的調整，例如購買和出售資產，以及我們預期的現有債務和額外債務活動的利率變動。

We anticipate getting $0.01 of the $0.02 back and being net favorable by $0.01 for the full year on capital markets, in terms of our core FFO relative to our initial outlook. So we're early in the year in terms of what we will do broadly in terms of transaction activity, capital markets activity. So haven't made a lot of adjustments, but there's been some movement that caused that additional $0.01 shortfall in the back half, back 3 quarters of the year that leave us sort of getting $0.01 of the $0.02 back later in the year on that line item.

就我們的核心 FFO 而言，相對於我們最初的前景，我們預計將獲得 0.02 美元中的 0.01 美元，並在全年資本市場上淨有利 0.01 美元。因此，就我們將在交易活動和資本市場活動方面廣泛開展的工作而言，我們還處於今年年初。因此，還沒有進行大量調整，但出現了一些變化，導致今年下半年、前3 個季度額外出現了0.01 美元的缺口，這讓我們在今年晚些時候在這條線上收回了0.02 美元中的0.01 美元物品。

Okay. My second question is on the SIP program, where you mentioned that you had a favorable vintage '22 and '23 originations. I was wondering when some of those '22 originations start to get paid off. And forward and reinvest some of the proceeds. What metrics do you look at or monitor whether it's exit cap rate or [tenure] or maybe supply that would make you more cautious on reinvesting in the program?

好的。我的第二個問題是關於 SIP 計劃，您提到您有一個受歡迎的 '22 和 '23 年份葡萄酒。我想知道 22 年的一些創舉什麼時候開始得到回報。並將部分收益轉發並再投資。您會關注或監控哪些指標，無論是退出上限率還是[任期]，或者可能是供應量，這些指標會讓您對該計劃的再投資更加謹慎？

John, it's Matt. So the only deal that we have that matures next year '25 is a very small $13 million loan in Northern New Jersey, very stable, strong market. So all the other ones don't mature until '26 or later. So it wasn't necessarily kind of first in, first out, so to speak.

約翰，是馬特。因此，我們唯一將於明年 25 年到期的交易是在新澤西州北部提供一筆 1,300 萬美元的小額貸款，這是一個非常穩定、強勁的市場。所以所有其他的要到 26 歲或更晚才成熟。所以可以這麼說，這不一定是先進先出。

So it's still quite a ways out there. And we're still building the book. So we haven't really focused too much on reinvesting, getting that money back. We're still -- we're at $200 million in the program today. I think our long-term goal is for it to be around 400, 400 or 500. So we're hoping to grow that total balance maybe $75 million this year and then continue from there in '26. At some point, yes, we'll have to -- we'll face that revolving door where we start getting redemptions. But we're still, at least, a couple of years away from that.

所以這仍然是一條很長的路。我們仍在創作這本書。因此，我們並沒有過多關注再投資、收回資金。今天我們的計劃資金仍然是 2 億美元。我認為我們的長期目標是達到 400、400 或 500 左右。是的，在某個時候，我們將不得不面對旋轉門，在那裡我們開始得到救贖。但我們至少還需要幾年的時間才能達成這個目標。

And our next question comes from Joshua Dennerlein with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Joshua Dennerlein。

Ben, I just want to explore a big picture topic you mentioned. You were talking about the differential between owning and renting in your markets is really wide. Rents are benefiting from that. Is there any historical time period where we could kind of look back at where the delta was this wide? And if so, just like how did it play out on the rent growth front?

本，我只是想探討你提到的一個大主題。您談到在您的市場中擁有和租賃之間的差異確實很大。租金正從中受益。有沒有任何歷史時期可以讓我們回顧一下三角洲有這麼寬的地方？如果是這樣，就像租金成長方面的情況如何一樣？

I mean the rent versus own economics that we're seeing today are really unique, not something that we've seen. We've obviously, over time, seen small variations in that. But the combination of home price appreciation, particularly in our markets and the rise in mortgage rates has led to all-time levels, right?

我的意思是，我們今天看到的租金與自有經濟確實是獨一無二的，而不是我們以前見過的。顯然，隨著時間的推移，我們看到了其中的微小變化。但房價升值（尤其是在我們的市場）和抵押貸款利率上升的結合導致了歷史最高水平，對嗎？

I mean you're approaching where it's some of our markets 2x more expensive to own versus rent. And if we think about it kind of longer term and looking forward, I would frame it as that's an incremental cushion that we have that's supporting our demand on rental economics. So it may not stay as peak as it is today. Obviously, part of that is based on the trajectory of interest rates. But there's a nice cushion that should serve as a tailwind for us for a number of years.

我的意思是，我們的一些市場的擁有成本比租金貴兩倍。如果我們從長遠來看並展望未來，我會將其視為我們擁有的增量緩衝，可以支持我們對租賃經濟的需求。因此，它可能不會像今天這樣保持巔峰狀態。顯然，其中一部分是基於利率軌跡。但有一個很好的緩衝墊，可以在未來幾年為我們提供順風。

Is there anything in your forecast like as far as rent growth goes? Or does your forecast assume any kind of like narrowing of that gap? Or would that be potential like upside? And maybe it's not just a 1 year dynamic, maybe it's multiyear. Just trying to think through [potential] upside from this.

您的預測中是否有諸如租金成長之類的內容？還是你的預測假設這種差距會縮小？或者說這有潛力嗎？也許這不僅僅是一年的動態，也許是多年的動態。只是想思考這件事的[潛在]好處。

Yes. I mean the forecast for this year reflected being a relatively stable level. Obviously, interest rates bounce around, prices bounce around. But in terms of the current year outlook sort of reflects generally where we are at this point in time have remained relatively stable.

是的。我的意思是，今年的預測反映了一個相對穩定的水平。顯然，利率會波動，價格也會波動。但就今年的前景而言，總體上反映了我們目前的狀況仍然相對穩定。

Our next question comes from [Anne Chan] with Green Street.

我們的下一個問題來自 Green Street 的 [Anne Chan]。

I'm just wondering have you seen any examples of things beginning to get more aggressive with property tax assessments of apartments to help fill the hole in budgets left by suppressed commercial real estate values in other sectors?

我只是想知道您是否看到任何例子，表明對公寓的財產稅評估開始變得更加積極，以幫助填補其他行業商業房地產價值受到抑制所留下的預算缺口？

Anne, this is Sean. I mean it's early in the calendar year for some of the assessment cycles that really are more heavily weighted towards kind of midyear and the back half of the year. What we have seen thus far is a little bit of an uptick in Washington State and Virginia.

安妮，這是肖恩。我的意思是，對於一些評估週期來說，現在還處於日曆年的早期，這些評估週期實際上更側重於年中和下半年。到目前為止，我們看到華盛頓州和維吉尼亞州的情況略有上升。

We don't have insight into all the jurisdictions just yet. But in terms of our portfolio, that's what we're aware of. There's a lag as it relates to property tax assessed values. So our expectation would be there'll probably be more pressure on the Sunbelt based on the run-up that occurred sort of through COVID that's still working its way through the system before you see it in the next couple of years maybe start to move the other direction. So we haven't seen clear evidence of that for 2024 just yet, but that's kind of the high-level view.

我們還沒有深入了解所有司法管轄區。但就我們的投資組合而言，這就是我們所知道的。由於與財產稅評估值相關，因此存在滯後。因此，我們的預期是，陽光地帶可能會面臨更大的壓力，因為新冠疫情導致的經濟增長，在未來幾年你看到它可能開始移動之前，它仍在整個系統中發揮著作用。 。因此，我們還沒有看到 2024 年的明確證據，但這只是高層的觀點。

All right. Appreciate that. And I'm just curious, what level of CapEx per unit should we expect in the next few years combined between NOI enhancing and asset preservation?

好的。感謝。我只是很好奇，未來幾年我們應該預期在 NOI 增強和資產保全之間結合的每單位資本支出水準是多少？

Yes. Anne, it's Matt. So our asset preservation CapEx has been pretty consistent over the last -- well, between '23 and '24, around $1,600, $1,700 a unit, which is, I guess, roughly 6% or 7% of NOI, 7%. The NOI-enhancing CapEx, that's where we really increased our investment or we're looking to increase our investment volume quite a bit. I think we invested about $75 million, $80 million last year across the whole portfolio, most of which I guess was same store. We're looking to double that this year.

是的。安妮，是馬特。因此，我們的資產保值資本支出在過去相當穩定——嗯，在 23 年到 24 年之間，每單位約為 1,600 美元、1,700 美元，我猜大約是 NOI 的 6% 或 7%、7%。提高 NOI 的資本支出是我們真正增加投資的地方，或是我們希望大幅增加投資金額的地方。我想我們去年在整個投資組合中投資了大約 7500 萬美元、8000 萬美元，我猜其中大部分是在同一家商店。我們希望今年將這一數字增加一倍。

A lot of that is driven by expanded solar production and by expanded the opportunity for the accessory dwelling units in California that we talked about it at Investor Day. And we think that's an opportunity that's out there for the next couple of years. So we're excited about that. And I would think that there will be the opportunity to continue to have those increased opportunities, at least, for the next couple of years.

其中很大一部分原因是太陽能產量的擴大以及我們在投資者日討論的加州附屬住宅單元機會的擴大。我們認為這是未來幾年的機會。所以我們對此感到興奮。我認為至少在接下來的幾年裡，將有機會繼續擁有這些增加的機會。

Our next question comes from Brad Heffern with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Brad Heffern。

Yes. On the blended rate assumptions, the low 3% for the second quarter, maybe seems a little conservative given you would normally expect those blends to pick up further from here, and you're already at 3.3% in April. So is your assumed seasonality more muted than normal for the second quarter and for the rest of the year? Or am I perceiving that wrong?

是的。就混合利率假設而言，第二季 3% 的低利率可能顯得有點保守，因為您通常預計這些混合利率將進一步上升，而 4 月已經達到 3.3%。那麼，您假設的第二季和今年剩餘時間的季節性是否比正常情況更溫和？或者我認為這是錯誤的？

No, not really, Brad. I mean low 3%, 3.2%, 3.3%, somewhere in that ballpark. I mean we've seen asking rent growth kind of 5.5% or so through yesterday. That's played through just renewal offers that have already been made in terms of what our expectation is for rate growth. So it seems like somewhere in that range for the second quarter is reasonable. And then you will have to see how asking rent growth continues as we move through the second quarter.

不，不是真的，布拉德。我的意思是低 3%、3.2%、3.3%，大概在這個範圍內。我的意思是，截至昨天我們已經看到租金上漲了 5.5% 左右。這是透過根據我們對利率成長的預期已經提出的續約報價來實現的。因此，第二季度處於該範圍內的某個位置似乎是合理的。然後你將不得不看看隨著第二季的到來，租金要價如何繼續增長。

Okay. And then on concessions, you talked a little bit about the Bay Area and Seattle, but can you go through any of the other regions that have concessions and how they trended? I'm particularly thinking about the expansion regions, but anywhere else as well.

好的。然後關於優惠，您談到了灣區和西雅圖，但您能介紹一下其他有優惠的地區以及它們的趨勢嗎？我特別考慮擴展區域，但也考慮其他任何地方。

Yes. What I would say, first, in terms of the expansion regions is we have relatively small portfolios in our same-store basket in those regions. So as you think of the expansion markets in Texas, for example, we don't have anything in Austin. There's only 2 assets in Dallas. We have seen -- at least in Q1, we saw a year-over-year increase in concession volume in Dallas. In the previous year, it was about 1/3 of all leases. It was roughly about half in Q1.

是的。我想說，首先，就擴張區域而言，我們在這些區域的同店購物籃中擁有相對較小的產品組合。例如，當你想到德州的擴張市場時，我們在奧斯汀沒有任何東西。達拉斯只有 2 個資產。我們已經看到，至少在第一季度，達拉斯的特許經營量同比增長。去年，這一比例約為所有租賃的 1/3。第一季大約為一半。

So Dallas -- Dallas is really a market, very large geography, broadly diversified, really depends on where you are. There are some submarkets where it's well over a month for almost every lease. There are other submarkets where it's half a month for some level of volume. So it really depends on where you are.

所以達拉斯——達拉斯確實是一個市場，地域廣闊，多元化，實際上取決於你在哪裡。在某些子市場，幾乎每次租賃的時間都超過一個月。還有其他子市場，一定程度的銷售量需要半個月。所以這實際上取決於你在哪裡。

If you move to the Denver market, it's really a story of urban versus suburban, as I think Ben referred to earlier. If you're in the urban submarkets where we have one operating asset, concessions are much more (inaudible) as compared to the suburbs where we have most of our assets.

如果你搬到丹佛市場，這實際上是一個城市與郊區的故事，我想本之前提到過。如果您位於我們擁有營運資產的城市子市場，那麼與我們擁有大部分資產的郊區相比，優惠要多得多（聽不清楚）。

And then in terms of our other expansion regions. In Charlotte, it's a similar story as Denver. We have some assets in the South end. Concessions are more pronounced there, average closer to 0.5 month for probably 50%, 60% of the leases versus you move to sort of the northern suburbs, it's quite a bit less.

然後就我們的其他擴展區域而言。夏洛特的情況與丹佛類似。我們在南端有一些資產。那裡的優惠更為明顯，大約 50%、60% 的租約平均接近 0.5 個月，與搬到北郊相比，要少得多。

And then in Florida. Florida is a little more of an effective rent kind of market where people tend to price based on absolute rent and as many concessions for existing assets. Lease-up assets are different but existing assets, it tends to be a little more of a what am I writing a check for. And so they're most concerned about the lease rent than the concession. So that's a little bit more volatile, but we haven't seen a huge amount of concession volume. Again, I think that's more representative of the sort of market behavior than it is to our pricing dynamics.

然後在佛羅裡達州。佛羅裡達州更像是一種有效的租金市場，人們傾向於根據絕對租金和現有資產的盡可能多的優惠來定價。租賃資產與現有資產不同，它往往更像是我寫支票的目的。因此，他們最關心的是租賃租金而不是特許權。因此，波動性更大一些，但我們還沒有看到大量的優惠。同樣，我認為這更能代表市場行為，而不是我們的定價動態。

Our next question comes from Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho Securities. We'll move on to our next question. Our next question comes from Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞穗證券的 Haendel St. Juste。我們將繼續討論下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

This is [Amy] on with Michael. Looking back, there have been periodic supply cycles in the South. So clearly, we're seeing supply starting to slow heading into '26. But as rents recover, how fast can development start to pick back up in the Sunbelt? And is that concerning to you as you look to increase your exposure there?

這是[艾米]和麥可的談話。回顧過去，南方存在著週期性的供應週期。很明顯，我們看到進入 26 年供應量開始放緩。但隨著租金回升，陽光地帶的發展能以多快的速度開始回升？當您希望增加在那裡的曝光時，您對此感到擔憂嗎？

Yes. Amy, it's Matt. It is certainly true that there's less barriers. There's less regulatory barriers to entry in the Southern markets. And so supply is able to respond to demand much more quickly. And some of the supply kind of excesses you're seeing now are -- were a relatively quick market response to tremendous demand a couple of years ago that really started with COVID in some of those Southern or Sunbelt markets. So it is, I'd say, a shorter cycle, a more attenuated cycle. Demand comes, supply can respond quickly. But having said that, there is a lot of demand there. And the interplay between those 2 factors into our view on kind of our long-term portfolio allocation and trying to get to 25% there.

是的。艾米，是馬特。確實，障礙越來越少。進入南方市場的監管障礙較少。因此供應能夠更快地回應需求。你現在看到的一些供應過剩是幾年前市場對巨大需求的相對快速反應，這種反應實際上是從南部或陽光地帶市場的新冠疫情開始的。所以我想說，這是一個更短的周期，一個更衰減的周期。需求來了，供給就能快速反應。但話雖如此，那裡有很多需求。這兩個因素之間的交互作用影響了我們對長期投資組合配置的看法，並試圖達到 25%。

The other thing I would say is submarkets matter a lot. And there are -- even within some of these geographies and particularly the expansion markets that we selected, there are submarkets that do have some meaningful supply barriers. And those are certainly the submarkets that are more attractive to us, both for acquisitions -- and we're pretty good at unlocking those constraints on the development side. So you'll see that inform our portfolio strategy within each region.

我想說的另一件事是子市場非常重要。即使在其中一些地區，特別是我們選擇的擴張市場中，也有一些子市場確實存在一些有意義的供應障礙。這些無疑是對我們更具吸引力的子市場，無論是對於收購而言，還是我們非常擅長解除開發方面的這些限制。因此，您會發現這為我們在每個地區的投資組合策略提供了資訊。

Yes. I'll add to that. And as we're thinking about the opportunity set in the Sunbelt, we've got in the near term, the ability to buy below replacement cost and be at a good basis and find that attractive from a long-term hold perspective. We are increasingly also focused on bringing our strategic capabilities and particularly our operating model initiatives.

是的。我會補充一點。當我們考慮陽光地帶的機會時，我們在短期內有能力以低於重置成本的價格購買並處於良好的基礎，並從長期持有的角度發現這一點具有吸引力。我們也越來越注重發揮我們的策略能力，特別是我們的營運模式舉措。

It's been driving a lot on growth for our existing assets, but we're increasingly bringing that to new assets that we bring into the fold. And as we get more and more density in the Sunbelt and our expansion markets, we expect that flywheel to accelerate. There is the land side and the opportunity with less competition in these markets to be finding attractive land structured appropriately, some of which will make sense to start more immediately and some of which could position us longer term to generate value.

它極大地推動了我們現有資產的成長，但我們越來越多地將其引入我們納入的新資產中。隨著我們在陽光地帶和擴張市場的密度越來越大，我們預計飛輪將會加速。土地方面，以及在這些市場上競爭較少的機會，可以找到結構合理、有吸引力的土地，其中一些可以立即開始，而另一些可以使我們長期創造價值。

And then kind of a fourth driver of value for us is in a world where capital is less abundant, our ability to provide capital to other developers. And we've used that as a tool for growth in our expansion regions. And for sure, in today's environment are seeing a better quality sponsor, better quality real estate, better return profile there. So it's that combination of opportunities that we'll tap into to drive our longer-term expansion of those markets.

對我們來說，第四個價值驅動因素是在資本較不豐富的世界中，我們向其他開發商提供資本的能力。我們已將其用作我們擴張區域的成長工具。可以肯定的是，在當今的環境下，我們會看到更優質的贊助商、更優質的房地產、更好的報酬率。因此，我們將利用這些機會來推動這些市場的長期擴張。

Great. And then just a quick follow-up on that. What are you seeing in terms of land cost currently?

偉大的。然後對此進行快速跟進。您目前對土地成本有何看法？

Land costs?

土地成本？

Right. To acquire land, if you were going to buy.

正確的。如果您要購買，則需要獲得土地。

Yes. So it varies, obviously, a lot by region. In some regions, we have seen, particularly in some of our (inaudible) regions, we have seen land prices come down significantly for motivated sellers. There's plenty of sellers kind of like the assets we're talking about, who are not particularly -- there's no time sensitivity, and they're holding out.

是的。顯然，不同地區的情況差異很大。在某些地區，我們看到，特別是在我們的一些（聽不清楚）地區，對於積極主動的賣家來說，土地價格大幅下降。有很多賣家有點像我們正在談論的資產，他們並不是特別——沒有時間敏感性，而且他們堅持持有。

But one of the deals we actually highlighted at our Investor Day was the deal in suburban Boston in Quincy. That's the deal we're looking to start in Q2 in suburban Boston, where that land -- we were able to buy that land at probably 40% less than where it had been under contract before, say, in '21 or '22.

但我們在投資者日上真正強調的交易之一是位於波士頓郊區昆西的交易。這就是我們希望在波士頓郊區第二季開始的交易，我們能夠以比之前（例如 21 年或 22 年）合約價低 40% 的價格購買該土地。

So we are seeing that to some extent. In the expansion regions, land pricing has probably come off a little bit in Florida, where it had gotten incredibly aggressive. But we haven't necessarily seen significant moves down in land costs.

所以我們在某種程度上看到了這一點。在擴張地區，佛羅裡達州的土地價格可能略有下降，那裡的土地價格變得異常激進。但我們不一定會看到土地成本大幅下降。

Partially, I would say that's because in many of the expansion regions, the land is a much smaller percentage of the total deal cap than it is, say, in California or New York, where land might be 30%, 40% of your total deal cap. It moves a lot. It's very high beta.

我想說，部分原因是在許多擴張地區，土地佔總交易上限的比例比加州或紐約小得多，在加州或紐約，土地可能佔總交易上限的 30%、40%交易上限。它移動很多。這是非常高的貝塔值。

If you're doing a garden deal in Charlotte, land might only be 10% of your total deal cap. So it's not going to move the needle as much, and it's not going to be as sensitive really in either direction. So it's been -- land prices tend to be sticky in general. They've probably been stickier in those markets where, obviously, they were cheaper to begin with.

如果您在夏洛特進行花園交易，土地可能只佔總交易上限的 10%。因此，它不會產生太大的影響，而且在任何一個方向上都不會那麼敏感。所以，土地價格整體上往往是黏性的。它們在那些顯然一開始就便宜的市場上可能更具黏性。

Our next question comes from Alex Goldfarb with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alex Goldfarb 和 Piper Sandler。

So 2 questions here. First, just going to New York with the recent rent law updates. The office to resi conversions actually looks to be quite lucrative, not expecting you guys to take down an office building. But for your development capital program, does this represent a new opportunity for you, given that there's sort of a 2-year shot clock where the landlords have to apply for permits? So it seems like a lot of existing office landlords who may be contemplating this have a short window to act, and your capital may be attractive to them.

所以這裡有兩個問題。首先，去紐約了解最近的租金法更新。辦公室到住宅區的轉換其實看起來非常有利可圖，沒想到你們會拆掉一棟辦公大樓。但對於你們的開發資本計畫來說，考慮到房東必須申請許可證有兩年的期限，這是否代表著你們的新機會？因此，似乎許多現有的辦公室業主可能正在考慮採取行動，而您的資金可能對他們很有吸引力。

Alex, it's Matt. I would say no. Our developer funding program is really focused on expanding our growth in our expansion regions. So we're not looking to grow our capital investment in New York.

亞歷克斯，這是馬特。我會說不。我們的開發商資助計劃真正專注於擴大我們在擴張區域的成長。因此，我們不打算增加在紐約的資本投資。

Okay. And then the second question is your overall outlook just was impressive, certainly ahead of expectations that you guys provided a few months ago. There's a broader debate out there about soft landing, hard landing, what's going to happen to the economy. But none of the comments that you guys spoke about suggest that there's any sort of weakness out there.

好的。第二個問題是，你們的整體前景令人印象深刻，肯定超出了你們幾個月前提供的預期。關於軟著陸、硬著陸以及經濟將會發生什麼，存在著更廣泛的爭論。但你們談論的評論都沒有顯示有任何弱點。

I mean across all the markets, it seems like things are healthy. Is that a fair takeaway? Or are there -- is there anything that you feel from the different markets are seeing that would give caution towards later this year or what all the different regions are seeing suggest actually almost an improving environment?

我的意思是，在所有市場上，情況似乎都很健康。這是一個公平的外賣嗎？或者，您從不同的市場中看到的任何東西是否會對今年稍後持謹慎態度，或者所有不同地區看到的情況實際上表明環境幾乎正在改善？

Yes, Alex, this is Sean. I think the broad brush is relatively consistent of what you stated. But certainly, real estate is a local business here. And there are submarkets that are challenged for either demand or supply reasons or both.

是的，亞歷克斯，這是肖恩。我認為整體情況與您所說的比較一致。但可以肯定的是，房地產是這裡的本地產業。有些子市場因需求或供應原因或兩者兼而有之而面臨挑戰。

As I mentioned a little bit in my prepared remarks, while the Mid-Atlantic is generally doing pretty well, that is driven by our suburban portfolio. The District of Columbia is quite soft for both demand and supply reasons. The same thing could be said about urban Seattle, downtown L.A. We have one asset there as an example.

正如我在準備好的演講中提到的，雖然中大西洋地區總體表現相當不錯，但這是由我們的郊區投資組合推動的。由於需求和供應的原因，哥倫比亞特區都相當疲軟。對於西雅圖市區和洛杉磯市中心也可以說同樣的事情。

So I would say, broadly speaking, what you're indicating is correct. For the portfolio, we have coastal, suburban, primary customer base healthy. But obviously, there are exceptions [where you are]. And I would point to really some of these urban submarkets with plentiful supply, some still quality of life conditions that are challenging as a little more choppy.

所以我想說，總的來說，你所說的是正確的。對於產品組合，我們擁有健康的沿海、郊區主要客戶群。但顯然，[你所在的地方]也有例外。我想指出的是，這些城市子市場中的一些供應充足，但一些生活品質仍然不穩定，但也面臨挑戰。

And then there are certain markets, still some of the Bay Area where there are signs of some job growth, but then there are still signs of layoffs here and there that you're hearing about in the media. So I wouldn't say everything is rosy, but the broad brush is it looks pretty good right now.

然後還有某些市場，仍然是灣區的一些市場，那裡有一些就業成長的跡象，但仍有媒體報導的裁員跡象。所以我不會說一切都很美好，但總的來說，現在看起來相當不錯。

Alex, I'll just add briefly. We've highlighted the improved job picture, right, given the change in expectations from the beginning of the year. But there are crosswinds, Sean touched on a couple. And I would highlight the inflationary impacts on our consumer and their wallet. I mean those are very much there and true when you think about car loans, I'm coming up for renewal, when you think about the beginning of student loan repayment. So the outlook has improved, but I would still describe it generally as sort of our consumer facing a series of crosswinds.

亞歷克斯，我簡單補充一下。考慮到年初以來預期的變化，我們強調了就業情況的改善，對吧。但肖恩談到了一些側風。我想強調通貨膨脹對我們的消費者及其錢包的影響。我的意思是，當你想到汽車貸款時，這些都是非常真實的，當你想到學生貸款償還的開始時，我即將更新。因此，前景有所改善，但我仍然將其總體描述為我們的消費者面臨一系列側風。

And our next question comes from Anthony Dowling with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安東尼·道林。

Anthony Powell here. Just a question on the bad debt improvement you saw in the quarter. What drove that improvement? Was it the core kind of improving their process, getting quicker, resi coming back in current? Maybe more detail would be great there.

安東尼鮑威爾在這裡。只是關於您在本季度看到的壞帳改善情況的問題。是什麼推動了這種改進？這是改善他們的流程、變得更快、恢復當前狀態的核心方式嗎？也許那裡有更多細節會很棒。

Sure, Anthony, it's Sean. Sort of a combination of all those factors that you just laid out. And what I'd point to geographically, which might be a little bit of a surprise for people is most of the improvement was actually not in places like L.A., which have been sort of the poster child for this.

當然，安東尼，我是肖恩。有點像您剛才列出的所有這些因素的組合。我要指出的是，從地理位置來看，這可能會讓人們感到有點驚訝，因為大部分改善實際上並不是像洛杉磯這樣的地方，而洛杉磯是這方面的典型代表。

But we saw very good improvement in the broader sort of New York metro area. Underlying bad debt in Q4 in that region was 3.1%. In Q1, it declined to 2.4%. Boston was 120 basis points in Q4, a decline of 60 basis points. It was about 20 basis points of improvement in Seattle. So for all the reasons you mentioned, some (inaudible) up on payments as well as the skip and evict process, sort of a combination of all those factors driving the improvement.

但我們在更廣泛的紐約都會區看到了非常好的改善。該地區第四季的基礎壞帳率為 3.1%。第一季下降至 2.4%。波士頓第四季為 120 個基點，下降了 60 個基點。西雅圖的改善幅度約為 20 個基點。因此，出於您提到的所有原因，一些（聽不清楚）付款以及跳過和驅逐流程，是所有這些因素推動改進的組合。

Maybe going back to the New York law that was just passed. I guess you don't want to increase more capital to New York. Was that a comment on the office ready or just a broader comment? I wanted to see if you can maybe just close your views on both the rental provisions and also the development provisions in the [wall]?

也許回到剛剛通過的紐約法律。我猜你不想在紐約增加更多資本。這是對辦公室的評論，還是只是更廣泛的評論？我想看看您是否可以結束您對[牆]中的租賃條款和開發條款的看法？

Yes. I mean -- this is Matt. It was really just a broader comment. When you look at our portfolio allocation, our portfolio allocation to the New York Metro area, I think, is roughly 20% today. It has been -- and we've been on a journey to reduce that over time. That's one of the regions we're rotating capital out of as we redeploy capital into our expansion regions.

是的。我的意思是——這是馬特。這實際上只是一個更廣泛的評論。當你看到我們的投資組合配置時，我認為我們今天對紐約都會區的投資組合配置約為 20%。隨著時間的推移，我們一直在努力減少這種情況。當我們將資本重新部署到我們的擴張地區時，這是我們將資本轉移的地區之一。

So first and foremost, we're just overweight that region relative to our long-term goal. And then there are -- when you talk about New York specifically, more of our investment in the New York region is going to New Jersey these days. We're finding very strong development yields, pretty good operating performance. And there is a regulatory overlay there, which it can be challenging, but it is not as challenging as New York State and New York City, and that does factor into our long-term view as well.

因此，首先也是最重要的是，相對於我們的長期目標，我們只是超配了這個地區。然後，當你具體談論紐約時，我們在紐約地區的更多投資現在都流向了新澤西州。我們發現開發收益非常強勁，營運表現也相當不錯。那裡有監管重疊，這可能具有挑戰性，但它不像紐約州和紐約市那麼具有挑戰性，這也確實影響了我們的長期觀點。

And our next question comes from Linda Tsai with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Linda Tsai。

In terms of the 7% moving out to buy a house, along those lines, wondering if you've seen any demographic shifts in the composition of your residents over the past year or so?

就 7% 的人搬出去買房而言，您想知道在過去一年左右您的居民組成是否發生了任何人口變化？

Yes. Linda, it's Sean. I wouldn't say anything terribly significant. The only thing that I could point to a little bit is as you might imagine, as winter, COVID, the [roommates], the volume of [room rates] across the portfolio has certainly declined. It has kind of come back up to some more normal levels, roughly, I would say. That would be the only data point that I really could point to for you.

是的。琳達，這是肖恩。我不會說任何非常重要的事情。我唯一可以指出的一點是，正如你可能想像的那樣，隨著冬天、新冠肺炎、[室友]、整個投資組合的[房價]數量肯定有所下降。我想說，它已經大致恢復到一些更正常的水平。這將是我真正可以為您指出的唯一數據點。

And then on the better job growth being concentrated in lower-income residents. Is there any kind of read through for AvalonBay in terms of resident demand?

然後是更好的就業成長集中在低收入居民。就居民需求而言，AvalonBay 是否有任何類型的解讀？

Yes, Sean, again. Not at this point that we've seen, other than certainly our lower price point assets in some of the markets, particularly on the West Coast, where we have a greater share of those assets are performing quite well. I think to Ben's point, there certainly are consumers that are feeling a little bit of pinch from what's happened with inflation, student loans, car leases expire, et cetera, et cetera.

是的，肖恩，又來了。目前我們還沒有看到，除了我們在某些​​市場上的價格較低的資產外，特別是在西海岸，我們在這些資產中佔有更大的份額，但它們的表現相當不錯。我認為就本的觀點而言，肯定有一些消費者因通貨膨脹、學生貸款、汽車租賃到期等問題而感到有點壓力。

And so certainly, those lower price point assets are performing quite well, in many cases, better than some of the higher price point assets in some of those submarkets. So it's really a market-by-market question. But overall, we have healthy demand and in some cases, maybe for the reasons you just described, maybe even stronger demand for some of the lower price points.

因此，可以肯定的是，這些較低價位資產的表現相當不錯，在許多情況下，比某些子市場中的一些較高價位資產表現更好。所以這其實是一個逐個市場的問題。但總體而言，我們有健康的需求，在某些情況下，可能出於您剛才描述的原因，可能對某些較低價格點的需求甚至更強勁。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Jamie Feldman。

Just quickly, I just wanted to get your thoughts on your debt maturities in '24 and '25. Obviously, a much larger maturity pipeline in '25 with $825 million of unsecured. But what are your thoughts -- like maybe can you talk to us about what's in your guidance in terms of refinancing? And is there any chance you'd pull forward the '25 maturities? And might that have any impact on your outlook if you did that? Just kind of what are you thinking about the markets in general?

很快，我只是想了解您對 24 年和 25 年債務到期的想法。顯然，25 年的成熟管道規模要大得多，無擔保金額為 8.25 億美元。但您的想法是什麼—也許您可以和我們談談您在再融資方面的指導意見嗎？您是否有機會提前 25 年的到期日？如果您這樣做，會對您的前景產生任何影響嗎？您對整個市場有何看法？

Yes. Sure, Jamie. This is Kevin. Maybe just to kind of provide some context, I'll just start with our capital plan for the year. It's not changed significantly from our initial outlook. And as you recall, what we identified then and it's still true today is that for 2024, we have $1.4 billion in uses, which consists of $1.1 billion of investment spend and then a $300 million debt maturity later this year in November, which has a 3.7% interest rate.

是的。當然，傑米。這是凱文.也許只是為了提供一些背景信息，我將從今年的資本計劃開始。與我們最初的展望相比，情況沒有太大變化。正如你所記得的，我們當時確定的、今天仍然如此的是，到2024 年，我們有14 億美元的用途，其中包括11 億美元的投資支出，然後是今年11 月晚些時候到期的3億美元債務，其中包括利率3.7%。

So that's the usage we've got for this year. Our sources are pretty straightforward and have kind of 3 broad parts, $400 million of free cash flow. We anticipate drawing down about $175 million of unrestricted cash that we had at the beginning of the year and ending the year with 2 25 in cash at the end of the year.

這就是我們今年的用法。我們的來源非常簡單，分為 3 個主要部分，4 億美元的自由現金流。我們預計在年初提取約 1.75 億美元的非限制性現金，並在年底提取 2 25 美元的現金。

And then our [initial outlook] contemplated about $850 million or so of external capital, which at the time we contemplated would be sourced through the combination of 2 debt offerings. We're early in the year, a lot can change, and we'll see what will happen. In our Q1 reforecast, we assumed that we do only about $700 million of incremental debt this year and probably use about $100 million or so of net disposition proceeds from the acquisition -- disposition activity that's underway. So not a lot of change.

然後我們的[初步展望]考慮了大約 8.5 億美元左右的外部資本，當時我們考慮透過兩次債務發行的組合來獲取這些資本。我們還處於今年年初，很多事情都可能發生變化，我們將看看會發生什麼。在我們第一季的重新預測中，我們假設今年我們只增加了約 7 億美元的增量債務，並且可能使用正在進行的收購處置活動中約 1 億美元的淨處置收益。所以變化不大。

So 2 debt deals, we have $250 million of hedges in place that we intend to apply to our first debt deal. The $250 million are basically effectively struck at a 3.7%, 10-year rate. So if we were to do a small debt deal, we'd probably be looking at the cost of debt today, somewhere in the low 5% range versus an unhedged 10-year debt deal that would be more like [5 6, 5 7].

因此，在兩筆債務交易中，我們準備了 2.5 億美元的對沖，打算將其應用於我們的第一筆債務交易。這 2.5 億美元的實際利率基本上是 3.7%，即 10 年期利率。因此，如果我們要進行一筆小額債務交易，我們可能會考慮今天的債務成本，在 5% 的低範圍內，而未對沖的 10 年期債務交易則更像是 [5 6, 5 7 ] 。

So we're in great shape. I mean it kind of goes back to Ben's initial comments. We have a terrifically strong balance sheet, lots of free cash flow, low leverage at 4.3x, and well-laddered debt maturities that typically range from $500 million a year to $800 million or so a year.

所以我們的狀態很好。我的意思是，這可以追溯到本最初的評論。我們擁有非常強大的資產負債表、大量的自由現金流、4.3 倍的低槓桿率以及良好的債務期限（通常從每年 5 億美元到每年 8 億美元左右）。

Next year is a little bit more elevated, but it's still just over 2 points of our capitalization. So relative to the broader REIT industry, even that maturity is a modest one. That $825 million breaks down into a June maturity in 2025 at around 3.6%, and then there's another $300 million in November 2025, also at around 3.6%.

明年會稍微高一些，但仍只占我們資本的 2 個百分點多一點。因此，相對於更廣泛的房地產投資信託產業來說，即使是這樣的成熟度也是有限的。這 8.25 億美元在 2025 年 6 月到期，利率約為 3.6%，然後還有 3 億美元在 2025 年 11 月到期，利率也約為 3.6%。

So our maturities are spaced out roughly 6 months apart. They're relatively light and level across the spectrum. And so we're well positioned to kind of roll those debt maturities as they come due. We do not currently anticipate prepaying them. And certainly with debt rates where they are today, which is relatively unattractive compared to the expiring rate. It's unlikely we would pull that forward to retire them early. So we'll probably address those as they come due. And again, this is a pretty light year for capital markets activity, including debt, and we'll take things as they come.

因此，我們的到期日間隔約為 6 個月。它們在整個光譜中相對較輕且水平。因此，我們處於有利地位，可以在這些債務到期時展期。我們目前預計不會預付款。當然，就目前的債務利率而言，與到期利率相比，相對沒有吸引力。我們不太可能會提前讓他們提早退休。因此，我們可能會在這些問題到期時解決它們。再說一次，對於包括債務在內的資本市場活動來說，今年是相當輕鬆的一年，我們會順其自然。

Great. That's very helpful. And then for the next year, would you put a hedge on early? And when would you want to do that?

偉大的。這非常有幫助。那麼明年，你會提前進行避險嗎？您什麼時候想這樣做？

Yes. Jamie, it's sort of -- one of the -- hedging is something we do. We evaluate continually over the course of the year. We don't have rigid fixed plans to hedge X percent of debt maturity, in advance of its maturity. It's really a function of what do we anticipate doing in the current year and the following year? And how do we think about our evolving sense of the capital plan that we'll have for each of those years and what the opportunity set looks like in the treasury market for hedging.

是的。傑米，這是我們所做的——其中之一——對沖。我們在這一年中不斷評估。我們沒有嚴格的固定計劃來在債務到期之前對沖 X% 的債務。這實際上是我們預計今年和明年做什麼的函數？我們如何看待我們對每年的資本計劃不斷變化的認識，以及國債市場對沖的機會集是什麼樣的。

Our next question comes from Michael Lewis with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Michael Lewis。

I know we're already going long, but I have just one question. And it relates to a topic you talked a lot about, which is the Sunbelt versus the established regions and what 2025 and 2026 are going to look like. When I look at your Slide 8, 1.3% growth, unit growth in your established regions in '25 versus 2.5% in the Sunbelt. It's not really clear to me where the advantage lies there, right? In other words, what should that spread be?

我知道我們已經談得很長了，但我只有一個問題。這涉及到您經常談論的一個話題，即陽光地帶與成熟地區的對比，以及 2025 年和 2026 年的情況。當我查看您的投影片 8 時，25 年您已建立的地區的單位成長率為 1.3%，而陽光地帶的單位成長率為 2.5%。我不太清楚優勢在哪裡，對吧？換句話說，傳播應該是多少？

Because once you layer demand onto it, if I'm just looking at households created versus units added, it looks to me like maybe your expansion regions are going to have better fundamentals than your established ones in '25 and more likely '26. So I'm just wondering, what do you think is an equilibrium for that difference in supply? It's just not clear to me that there's a big advantage there.

因為一旦你將需求分層，如果我只看新增的家庭與新增的單位，在我看來，你的擴張區域可能會比25 年（更可能是26 年）的現有區域擁有更好的基本面。所以我只是想知道，您認為供應差異的平衡是什麼？我只是不清楚那裡有很大的優勢。

Yes, Michael, I'll make a couple of comments. So starts in the Sunbelt expected to peak at some point kind of mid this year, stay elevated as you get through kind of the middle of next year. And then given the reduction in start volume, starts to come down back towards more historical levels as you get towards the end of 2025. So I think that was sort of part of your comment there.

是的，邁克爾，我會發表一些評論。因此，陽光地帶的啟動預計將在今年年中的某個時候達到頂峰，並在明年年中保持高位。然後考慮到起始量的減少，隨著 2025 年底的到來，開始回落至歷史水平。

Now the impacts on markets as deals deliver, to my comments earlier, will be more extended. And then if you look further out, you're exactly right. It is both obviously demand and supply story. And for us, it very much leads into how do we think about our overall portfolio optimization.

現在，正如我之前所說，交易對市場的影響將更加廣泛。然後如果你看得更遠，你是完全正確的。這顯然是需求和供給的故事。對我們來說，這在很大程度上決定了我們如何考慮整體投資組合最佳化。

And broadly, that's the reason we're headed towards 25% in the expansion markets. We think that's a nice addition. Also continue to feel very strongly about the performance opportunity in our South region. So there's more into that we went into the Investor Day, but that is as we get into a more normalized environment, leading to how we think about our longer-term optimization goals.

總的來說，這就是我們在擴張市場中邁向 25% 的原因。我們認為這是一個很好的補充。也繼續對我們南部地區的表現機會有強烈的感覺。因此，我們進入投資者日還有更多內容，但那是當我們進入一個更正常化的環境時，導致我們如何思考我們的長期優化目標。

Okay. So if 2.5% supply growth in the Sunbelt next year, is that -- I mean it sounds like you think things are going to kind of gradually get better. But I mean, is that a concerning number versus the 1.3% established regions? Or are those pretty -- you think fundamentals in those 2 parts of your portfolio might start to look pretty similar next year?

好的。因此，如果明年陽光地帶的供應增加 2.5%，我的意思是，聽起來您認為情況會逐漸好轉。但我的意思是，與 1.3% 的成熟地區相比，這個數字是否令人擔憂？或者這些很漂亮嗎？

I think they start to approach closer to historical norms for a period of time. Matt made the comment earlier about now the barriers to starting deals in the Sunbelt and the shortness of those market cycles. So it does factor into how do we think about our overall portfolio optimization.

我認為他們在一段時間內開始接近歷史規範。馬特早些時候就目前在陽光地帶啟動交易的障礙以及這些市場週期的短暫發表了評論。因此，它確實影響了我們如何考慮整體投資組合最佳化。

And Mike, one thing, I think, to keep in mind here is I'd be a little careful about isolating years as being very unique in terms of the delivery cycle and the impact on fundamentals. As Ben was alluding to earlier, what you see on that chart in terms of deliveries for 2024, where it does peak in the back half of this year, people will be leasing up. Putting those units into the market 12 to 13 months beyond sort of the initial delivery dates in terms of how they're leasing them up.

麥克，我認為要記住的一件事是，我會謹慎地將年份分開，因為在交付週期和對基本面的影響方面非常獨特。正如本早些時候提到的，你在圖表上看到 2024 年的交付量，在今年下半年達到頂峰，人們將進行租賃。就租賃方式而言，將這些單位投入市場比最初交付日期晚了 12 至 13 個月。

And if you think of the impact on pricing, you've got those deliveries coming in plus you have new deliveries that are beginning in 2025. So the units coming in to market takes a long period of time for them to lease up. And the impact on stabilized assets takes time as rents are reset to a new sort of market clearing price.

如果考慮到對定價的影響，就會發現這些交付量加上 2025 年開始的新交付量。由於租金被重置為新的市場出清價格，對穩定資產的影響需要時間。

As those leases expire, it has to roll through the rent roll. So when you sort of take the compounded effect, I think that's why we're saying that for 2025, we feel much better about our performance in the established regions relative to the Sunbelt. And that should carry into 2026, given the time it takes to lease up the assets and those new prices to be reflected in stabilized asset rent rolls, if that makes sense.

當這些租約到期時，它必須滾動租金。因此，當你考慮複合效應時，我認為這就是為什麼我們說到 2025 年，我們對成熟地區相對於陽光地帶的表現感覺要好得多。考慮到租賃資產所需的時間以及穩定的資產租金清單中反映的新價格（如果有意義的話），這種情況應該會持續到 2026 年。

Yes. '23 was a high supply year, too, right? Understood.

是的。 23 年也是供應量較高的一年，對吧？明白了。

And there are no further questions at this time. I'll hand the floor back to Ben Schall for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我將把發言權交還給本·沙爾 (Ben Schall)，讓其致閉幕詞。

All right. And thank you all for joining us today. We appreciate your engagement and support, and we'll talk with you soon.

好的。感謝大家今天加入我們。我們感謝您的參與和支持，我們很快就會與您聯繫。

Thank you. That concludes our call for today. All parties may disconnect.

謝謝。我們今天的呼籲到此結束。所有各方都可以斷開連接。