艾芙隆海灣社區公司 (AVB) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to AvalonBay Communities Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，歡迎來到 AvalonBay 社區 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Your host for today's conference call is Mr. Jason Reilley, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Reilley, you may begin your conference.

今天電話會議的主持人是投資者關係副總裁 Jason Reilley 先生。賴利先生，您可以開始會議了。

Thank you, Rob, and welcome to AvalonBay Communities Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

謝謝 Rob，歡迎參加 AvalonBay 社群 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。

Before we begin, please note that forward-looking statements may be made during this discussion. There are a variety of risks and uncertainties associated with forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially. There is a discussion of these risks and uncertainties in yesterday afternoon's press release as well as in the company's Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filed with the SEC.

在我們開始之前，請注意，討論期間可能會做出前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述存在多種風險和不確定性，實際結果可能有重大差異。昨天下午的新聞稿以及公司向 SEC 提交的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格中討論了這些風險和不確定性。

As usual, this press release does include an attachment with definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures and other terms, which may be used in today's discussion. This attachment is also available on our website at www.avalonbay.com/earnings, and we encourage you to refer to this information during the review of our operating results and financial performance.

與往常一樣，本新聞稿確實包含一個附件，其中包含非公認會計準則財務指標和其他術語的定義和調節，這些術語可能會在今天的討論中使用。此附件也可在我們的網站 www.avalonbay.com/earnings 上取得，我們鼓勵您在審查我們的經營業績和財務業績時參考此資訊。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Ben Schall, CEO and President of AvalonBay Communities, for his remarks. Ben?

接下來，我將把電話轉給 AvalonBay Communities 執行長兼總裁 Ben Schall，聽取他的演講。本？

Thank you, Jason, and thank you, everyone, for joining us.

謝謝傑森，也謝謝大家加入我們。

In keeping with our custom, we posted a presentation last night to accompany our earnings release. In addition to my opening comments, you will hear from Sean on our operating performance and revenue building blocks for 2024; from Matt, on the significant earnings being generated by our development projects and lease-up; and from Kevin, on the strength of our balance sheet.

按照我們的慣例，我們昨晚發布了一份演示文稿，以配合我們的收益發布。除了我的開場白之外，您還將聽到 Sean 介紹我們 2024 年的營運表現和收入基礎；馬特（Matt）介紹了我們的開發項目和租賃所產生的巨額收入；以及凱文（Kevin）根據我們的資產負債表的實力。

I want to start with my thanks to the AvalonBay team and our 3,000-plus associates for delivering another strong quarter of financial performance and operating results. Particularly in the current environment of higher interest rates and uncertain cap rates, we are laser-focused on driving cash flow growth from our portfolio. The bottom line results from our operating model transformation, led by our on-site and centralized teams and powered by our technology, revenue management and data science teams and proprietary systems, continue to outpace expectations.

首先，我要感謝 AvalonBay 團隊和我們的 3,000 多名員工，感謝他們再次實現了強勁的季度財務表現和營運表現。特別是在當前利率較高且上限利率不確定的環境下，我們專注於推動投資組合現金流成長。在我們的現場和集中團隊的領導下，在我們的技術、收入管理和數據科學團隊以及專有系統的支持下，我們營運模式轉型的結果繼續超出預期。

Our strong operating performance also speaks to our portfolio positioning, which is 70% suburban and primarily in suburban coastal markets, which continue to benefit from a combination of steady demand and limited new supply.

我們強勁的經營業績也反映了我們的投資組合定位，其中 70% 位於郊區，主要是郊區沿海市場，這些市場繼續受益於穩定的需求和有限的新增供應。

Turning to Slide 4 in the presentation. We grew core FFO by 6.4% in Q3, which was $0.06 ahead of our expectations. This outperformance was primarily driven by better-than-expected revenue growth, which positions us well as we enter the traditional slower leasing season.

前往簡報中的投影片 4。第三季我們的核心 FFO 成長了 6.4%，比我們的預期高出 0.06 美元。這種優異的表現主要是由好於預期的營收成長所推動的，這使我們在進入傳統的租賃淡季時處於有利地位。

As shown on the bottom of Slide 4, we have raised $855 million of capital this year at a 4.3% initial cost, which includes the drawdown of our $500 million equity forward, which we priced at $250 per share, and with the remainder coming from asset sales that we've sold at an average cap rate of 4.7%.

如幻燈片 4 底部所示，我們今年以 4.3% 的初始成本籌集了 8.55 億美元的資本，其中包括提取 5 億美元的遠期股本，我們將其定價為每股 250 美元，其餘部分來自我們以4.7% 的平均上限出售資產。

We completed three development projects in Q3, two in suburban submarkets in the Northeast and one in Miami, at a 7.2% stabilized yield. As Matt will emphasize later, our lease-up communities continue to outperform our original expectations by a wide margin. These projects are funded with yesterday's capital, at yesterday's capital cost and are slated to generate outsized value creation and earnings for investors.

第三季我們完成了三個開發項目，其中兩個位於東北郊區，一個位於邁阿密，穩定收益率為 7.2%。正如馬特稍後將強調的那樣，我們的租賃社區繼續大幅超出我們最初的預期。這些項目以昨天的資本和昨天的資本成本提供資金，預計將為投資者創造巨大的價值創造和收益。

We also started two projects this quarter, one in Princeton, New Jersey and one in South Miami, with projected yields in the mid-6% range. I will come back to our positioning on new development and capital allocation at the end of our prepared remarks.

本季我們也啟動了兩個項目，一個在新澤西州普林斯頓，一個在南邁阿密，預計收益率在 6% 左右。在我們準備好的演講結束時，我將回到我們對新發展和資本配置的定位。

In Q3, we made $50 million of commitments under our structured investment program, or SIP, and feel fortunate to be building this book of business in today's environment, with these new commitments generating an attractive 13% return.

在第三季度，我們在結構性投資計劃(SIP) 下做出了5000 萬美元的承諾，並且很幸運能夠在當今的環境中建立這本業務手冊，這些新的承諾產生了誘人的13%回報。

Slide 5 provides the breakdown of our Q3 revenue outperformance relative to guidance from the end of July, with a 30 basis point uplift from higher-than-expected occupancy, 20 basis points from higher rates and 10 basis points from improving bad debt.

投影片 5 詳細介紹了我們第三季營收表現相對於 7 月底的指引的表現，其中入住率高於預期提高了 30 個基點，利率提高提高了 20 個基點，壞帳改善提高了 10 個基點。

Turning to Slide 6. We've exceeded and raised guidance 3x this year. We now expect core FFO to grow 8.6% in 2023, which is 330 basis points above our initial expectations for the year. Same-store revenue growth expectations are up 130 basis points. Expenses are down slightly, leading to NOI growth of 6.3%.

轉向幻燈片 6。今年我們已經超出指導值並提高了 3 倍。我們現在預計 2023 年核心 FFO 將成長 8.6%，比我們今年的最初預期高出 330 個基點。同店營收成長預期上調 130 個基點。費用略有下降，導致 NOI 成長 6.3%。

And with that, I'll turn it to Sean to comment on the favorable demand and supply drivers in our markets and provide a fuller operating update.

接下來，我將請肖恩評論我們市場中有利的需求和供應驅動因素，並提供更全面的營運更新。

Thanks, Ben. As we start to look forward to 2024, I thought I'd provide some initial thoughts on two topics. First, I'd like to highlight a few macro factors that will support the performance of our portfolio in the coming year. And then second, share a few building blocks as it relates to the outlook for 2024 revenue growth specifically.

謝謝，本。當我們開始展望 2024 年時，我想我應該就兩個主題提供一些初步想法。首先，我想強調一些將支持我們投資組合來年表現的宏觀因素。其次，分享一些與 2024 年營收成長前景相關的基本要素。

Starting on Slide 7, we believe our portfolio is well positioned as it relates to rental affordability, particularly as compared to other regions of the country and single-family for sale product. In Chart 1, you can see that rental affordability in our established regions is actually better than pre-pandemic levels, given the strong wage growth that's been experienced over the last few years.

從幻燈片 7 開始，我們相信我們的投資組合處於有利位置，因為它與租金負擔能力相關，特別是與該國其他地區和單戶待售產品相比。在圖 1 中，您可以看到，鑑於過去幾年工資的強勁增長，我們成熟地區的租金承受能力實際上比大流行前的水平要好。

And in Chart 2, the difference between the cost of owning a median-priced home and median rent in our established regions has increased by roughly 10x if you look at the first 3 quarters of 2023, relative to the average during 2020, which certainly makes apartment living the more attractive option in these regions.

在圖2 中，如果您查看2023 年前3 個季度，相對於2020 年的平均水平，在我們已建立的地區擁有中位數價格房屋的成本與中位數租金之間的差異大約增加了10 倍，這無疑使在這些地區，公寓居住是更有吸引力的選擇。

We've already seen the impact of this trend in multiple data points. For example, the volume of existing home sales in our established regions has declined by roughly 25% over the past year. And in our own portfolio, the percentage of move-outs to purchase a home has dipped below 10% this year, well below the mid-teens long-term average.

我們已經在多個數據點中看到了這種趨勢的影響。例如，過去一年，我們成熟地區的現房銷售量下降了約 25%。在我們自己的投資組合中，今年搬出去買房的比例已降至 10% 以下，遠低於十幾歲左右的長期平均水平。

Moving to Slide 8. Our portfolio is also relatively insulated from new supply, particularly as compared to the Sunbelt. In our established regions, we expect new multifamily deliveries of approximately 1.5% of existing stock. And in the specific submarkets where we own assets, new supply is projected to be roughly 1% of stock. This bodes well for revenue growth in all market cycles, but is a particularly valuable attribute of our portfolio if we experience a weaker economic environment during 2024.

轉到投影片 8。我們的投資組合也相對不受新供應的影響，特別是與 Sunbelt 相比。在我們已建立的地區，我們預計新的多戶住宅交付量約為現有存量的 1.5%。在我們擁有資產的特定子市場中，新增供應預計約為庫存的 1%。這對所有市場週期的收入成長來說都是一個好兆頭，但如果我們在 2024 年經歷較弱的經濟環境，這對我們的投資組合來說是一個特別有價值的屬性。

Transitioning to Slide 9. I'd like to highlight four specific building blocks for 2024 revenue growth. First, the embedded growth in the rent roll from leases we've executed during 2023 stands at approximately 1.5%, which is above our long-term average at this point of the year.

轉到投影片 9。我想強調 2024 年營收成長的四個具體建構模組。首先，我們在 2023 年期間執行的租賃的租金成長約為 1.5%，高於我們今年此時的長期平均值。

Second, our current loss-to-lease is roughly 2%, led by the East Coast at about 2.5%, while the West Coast and expansion regions trailed behind at approximately 1.5% and 70 basis points, respectively. Third, we continue to drive incremental revenue from our operating model initiatives.

其次，我們目前的租賃損失約為 2%，其中東海岸領先，約為 2.5%，而西海岸和擴張地區分別落後於約 1.5% 和 70 個基點。第三，我們繼續透過我們的營運模式措施來增加收入。

For example, the September revenue from our AvalonConnect offering was about 40% greater than the average monthly revenue for the first 9 months of the year, and that monthly revenue run rate will continue to grow during the last 2 months of 2023 and throughout 2024.

例如，我們的 AvalonConnect 產品 9 月的收入比今年前 9 個月的平均月收入高出約 40%，且每月收入運行率將在 2023 年最後 2 個月和整個 2024 年繼續增長。

Lastly, we're expecting a continued tailwind from the normalization of bad debt. During the first half of the year, underlying bad debt averaged approximately 2.7% as compared to the Q3 average of roughly 2%, and we expect continued improvement as we move through 2024. The benefit from an improvement in underlying bad debt will be partially offset by the loss of rent relief we've recognized in 2023, but still be a net meaningful benefit for 2024. Taken together, these building blocks should support healthy revenue growth during the upcoming year.

最後，我們預期壞帳正常化將持續帶來推動作用。上半年，基本壞帳平均約為 2.7%，而第三季平均約為 2%，我們預計到 2024 年將繼續改善。基本壞帳改善的好處將被部分抵銷我們在2023 年確認了租金減免的損失，但到2024 年仍然是一個有意義的淨收益。總而言之，這些建構模組應該會支持來年的健康收入成長。

So with that, I'll turn it over to Matt to address our lease-up activity and structured investment platform. Matt?

因此，我將把它交給馬特來處理我們的租賃活動和結構性投資平台。馬特？

All right. Thanks, Sean. Turning to Slide 10. Our lease-ups continue to deliver outstanding results, laying the foundation for strong future growth in both earnings and NAV. We have five development communities that had active leasing in Q3, and those five deals are leasing up at rents that are $485 per month, or 17% above our initial underwriting. This, in turn, is driving a 90 basis point increase in the yield on these investments to 7.4%, far above any estimate of current cap rates and even further above the cost of capital we sourced to fund these deals back when they broke ground several years ago.

好的。謝謝，肖恩。轉向幻燈片 10。我們的租賃業務繼續取得出色的業績，為未來盈利和資產淨值的強勁增長奠定了基礎。我們有五個開發社區在第三季度進行了積極的租賃，這五個交易的租賃租金為每月 485 美元，比我們最初的承保高出 17%。這反過來又推動這些投資的收益率成長90 個基點，達到7.4%，遠高於對當前上限利率的任何估計，甚至進一步高於我們在這些交易破土動工時為這些交易提供資金的資本成本。幾年前。

After a relatively light year of deliveries in 2023, we do expect to see a significant increase in our apartment completions in '24, which will provide incremental NOI and FFO as these communities reach stabilization.

在 2023 年交付量相對較少之後，我們預計 24 年公寓竣工量將顯著增加，隨著這些社區達到穩定，這將提供增量的 NOI 和 FFO。

Slide 11 provides an update on our structured investment program, where we initiated two new investments last quarter to lend $52 million at an all-in average interest rate of 13%. As we've discussed on prior calls, these are 3- to 5-year investments where we provide capital to merchant builders that sits above the construction loan, but below common equity in the capital structure.

投影片 11 提供了我們結構性投資計畫的最新情況，我們上季啟動了兩項新投資，以 13% 的總平均利率貸款 5,200 萬美元。正如我們在之前的電話會議中討論的那樣，這些是 3 到 5 年的投資，我們向商業建築商提供高於建築貸款但低於資本結構中普通股的資本。

We're still early in the buildup of this new line of business and expect it to continue to grow to roughly $400 million over the next few years, providing a nice tailwind to earnings growth as these dollars get invested and start earning a return. We're also fortunate that we're able to underwrite most of this business in today's more restrictive environment, providing a strong risk-adjusted return, particularly for the latest additions to the program.

我們仍處於這一新業務​​線建設的早期階段，預計未來幾年該業務將繼續增長至約 4 億美元，隨著這些美元得到投資並開始獲得回報，為盈利增長提供良好的推動力。我們也幸運的是，我們能夠在當今更嚴格的環境中承保大部分業務，提供強勁的風險調整回報，特別是對於該計劃的最新新增內容。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Kevin.

有了這個，我會把它交給凱文。

Thanks, Matt. Turning to the next two slides. We continue to enjoy tremendous financial strength and flexibility, both from a balance sheet and a liquidity perspective. Specifically, from a balance sheet perspective, as you can see on Slide 12, we enjoy low leverage with net debt to EBITDA of 4.1x, which is below our target range of 5x to 6x. Our interest coverage ratio and our unencumbered NOI percentage are at near record levels of 7.5x and 95%, respectively.

謝謝，馬特。轉向接下來的兩張投影片。從資產負債表和流動性角度來看，我們繼續享有巨大的財務實力和彈性。具體來說，從資產負債表的角度來看，正如您在投影片12 中看到的那樣，我們的槓桿率較低，淨債務與EBITDA 之比為4.1 倍，低於我們5 倍至6 倍的目標範圍。我們的利息覆蓋率和未支配 NOI 百分比分別接近歷史最高水準 7.5 倍和 95%。

Our debt maturities are well laddered, with a weighted average years to maturity of 7.5 years. And our development underway is nearly 100% match-funded essentially with yesterday's lower cost of capital, which, in turn, helps ensure that these projects provide earnings and NAV growth when they are completed and stabilized.

我們的債務期限階梯良好，加權平均到期期限為 7.5 年。我們正在進行的開發項目幾乎是 100% 匹配資金，基本上與昨天較低的資本成本相匹配，這反過來又有助於確保這些項目在完成並穩定後提供收益和資產淨值增長。

In addition, from a liquidity perspective, as shown on Slide 13, we continue to maintain a high level of excess liquidity relative to our open commitments for development and structured investment products as of quarter end. Specifically, we enjoy $1.5 billion of excess liquidity. And so as a result, we continue to enjoy tremendous financial strength and stability and the flexibility to pursue attractive growth opportunities that may emerge across our investment platforms in the coming months.

此外，從流動性角度來看，如投影片 13 所示，相對於截至季末我們對開發和結構性投資產品的公開承諾，我們繼續保持高水準的過剩流動性。具體來說，我們享有 15 億美元的過剩流動性。因此，我們繼續享有巨大的財務實力和穩定性以及靈活性，以追求未來幾個月我們的投資平台可能出現的有吸引力的成長機會。

And with that, I'll turn it back to Ben.

說到這裡，我會把它轉回給本。

All right. Thanks, Kevin. We have consistently maintained a strong balance sheet throughout cycles. And as a result, we are well prepared for the current environment. As we have shown over the past couple of years, we proactively adjust our capital sourcing and capital allocation activities based on changes in the environment, as emphasized on Slide 14.

好的。謝謝，凱文。我們在整個週期中始終保持強勁的資產負債表。因此，我們為當前的環境做好了充分的準備。正如我們在過去幾年中所展示的那樣，我們根據環境的變化主動調整我們的資本採購和資本配置活動，正如幻燈片 14 所強調的那樣。

We locked in our equity forward in early 2022 to prefund future development activity. We shifted in the second half of 2022 and in 2023 to be a net seller of assets, with a portion of the proceeds being utilized to fund acquisitions as we reshape the portfolio and the balance to fund accretive development. And we have continued to be responsive in adjusting our development start activity, reducing starts last year and this year as our cost of capital changed.

我們在 2022 年初鎖定了遠期股權，為未來的開發活動預先提供資金。我們在 2022 年下半年和 2023 年轉變為資產淨賣家，在我們重塑投資組合和平衡以資助增值發展時，部分收益將用於資助收購。隨著資本成本的變化，我們繼續積極調整我們的開發啟動活動，減少去年和今年的啟動活動。

As we've emphasized, we are 95% match-funded on our development underway, which means all of that capital has already been raised at an attractive initial cost and allows us to deliver projects in 2024 and 2025 that will generate significant earnings and value.

正如我們所強調的，我們正在進行的開發項目獲得了95% 的配套資金，這意味著所有資金均已以極具吸引力的初始成本籌集，使我們能夠在2024 年和2025 年交付項目，從而產生可觀的收益和價值。

On a go-forward basis, we have raised our return requirements on new development. For a standard development deal, our target return was in the low to mid-6s in the middle of the year and is in the mid-to-high 6s today. These target returns are up over 100 basis points since last year, with the goal of underwriting 100 to 150 basis points of spread between development yields and market cap rates.

展望未來，我們提高了新開發項目的回報要求。對於標準開發交易，我們的目標回報在今年年中處於 6 分的中低至中高水平，而今天則處於 6 分的中高水平。自去年以來，這些目標回報率上升了 100 個基點以上，目標是承保開發收益率與市值利率之間 100 至 150 個基點的利差。

We expect to be in the lower development -- we expect to be in a lower development start environment in the coming quarters and with spreads at the tighter end of this range after a number of years of outsized development profit margins. And while in the current environment we're focused on maintaining our balance sheet strength, we do believe that we are well positioned, given our low leverage, ample liquidity and unique strategic capabilities, to capitalize on opportunities that might result from market dislocations. In the near term, while volumes are modest, we're able to deploy capital at double-digit returns through our SIP program.

我們預計將處於較低的開發水平——我們預計未來幾季將處於較低的開發啟動環境，並且在經歷了多年的巨大開發利潤率之後，利差將處於該範圍的較窄端。雖然在當前環境下，我們專注於維持資產負債表實力，但我們確實相信，鑑於我們的低槓桿率、充足的流動性和獨特的戰略能力，我們處於有利位置，可以利用市場混亂可能帶來的機會。短期內，雖然交易量不大，但我們能夠透過 SIP 計畫以兩位數的回報部署資本。

Slide 15 concludes our prepared remarks with our key takeaways. We continue to deliver strong operating results with tailwinds specific to our suburban coastal markets, incremental NOI to come from our developments and lease-up and all supported by a fantastic balance sheet.

投影片 15 用我們的要點總結了我們準備好的發言。我們繼續在郊區沿海市場的特定推動力、來自我們的開發和租賃的增量NOI以及出色的資產負債表的支持下實現強勁的經營業績。

And with that, operator, please open the line for questions.

那麼，接線員，請開通提問線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Eric Wolfe with Citi.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Eric Wolfe。

I think you said that you raised your development yields that's underwritten to be mid-to-high 6s. Just curious why you think that's the appropriate level? And what percentage of your future development pipeline with that criteria? So if you just take your rights pipeline and everything else, what percentage would be started under that criteria?

我認為您說過您將承保的開發收益率提高到了中高 6。只是好奇為什麼您認為這是合適的水平？您未來的開發通路中符合標準的比例是多少？因此，如果您只考慮您的版權管道和其他所有內容，那麼根據該標準啟動的百分比是多少？

Eric, it's Matt. I guess I can speak to that one a little bit. As Ben mentioned, we're really trying to preserve that spread of 100 to 150 basis points between cap rates and development yields. And so mid-to-high 6 is a reflection of where we think. It's very hard to know where spot cap rates would be today. I think that we had a pretty good sense of where they were over the summer when transaction activity has started to pick up. With the most current rise in rates, it's a little bit of a guess.

埃里克，這是馬特。我想我可以和那個人談一點。正如 Ben 所提到的，我們確實在努力維持上限利率和開發收益率之間 100 到 150 個基點的差距。所以中高 6 反映了我們的想法。現在很難知道現貨上限利率會是多少。我認為，當夏季交易活動開始回升時，我們對他們的情況有了很好的了解。從目前的利率上漲來看，這只是一個猜測。

But if you think cap rates are maybe in the mid-5s, then that would translate into development yields in the mid-to-high 6s to preserve that spread. It does vary by product type and by region, of course. But -- so that's really kind of the thinking behind that.

但如果你認為資本化率可能在 5 左右，那麼這將轉化為 6 左右的開發收益率，以保持這種利差。當然，它確實因產品類型和地區而異。但是——這確實是背後的想法。

And as it relates to what percentage of the current book meets that threshold, it's actually hard to say because things are moving around so much. And what we found is that until we have CDs, permits in hand, hard drawings to bid on the street, we don't really know where hard costs are today. They are starting to come down, but you don't necessarily realize that on estimates, that you really only realize that when you're ready to go.

由於它涉及當前書籍達到該閾值的百分比，因此實際上很難說，因為事情變化太大。我們發現，除非我們有 CD、手邊的許可證、可以在街上投標的硬圖紙，否則我們並不真正知道今天的硬成本在哪裡。它們開始下降，但根據估計，你不一定會意識到這一點，只有當你準備好出發時，你才會真正意識到這一點。

So what I would say is we have plenty of deals that do clear that hurdle. And indeed, we just started two deals this quarter that were in the mid-6s. And we have at least a couple more that could start over the next couple of quarters that we think are kind of in that position.

所以我想說的是，我們有很多交易可以清除這個障礙。事實上，我們本季剛剛啟動了兩筆交易，交易時間都在 6 年代中期。我們至少還有幾個可以在接下來的幾個季度開始的項目，我們認為這些項目處於這種位置。

We do have some that, on the most current underwriting from 6 to 12 months ago, will probably fall a little bit short of that. And in many of those cases, we're hoping that with some value engineering, maybe some changes to the land economics with the landowner and changes in hard costs, that by the time those deals are ready to go, they will meet that.

我們確實有一些，根據 6 到 12 個月前的最新承保情況，可能會稍微低於這個水平。在許多這樣的情況下，我們希望透過一些價值工程，也許對土地所有者的土地經濟進行一些改變以及硬成本的改變，當這些交易準備好時，他們將滿足這一點。

Understood. That's helpful. And then you gave some good detail on the building blocks for same-store revenue growth for next year. Obviously, the one piece that's missing is just your expectation around what market rents will do. And I know it's too early to provide that, but I was just hoping you could give us a sense for the process that you go through in terms of figuring that out, whether you're building up or down, and then sort of if you were to do it today, if you just have a sense for what market rate growth would look like.

明白了。這很有幫助。然後您詳細介紹了明年同店營收成長的基礎。顯然，缺少的只是你對市場租金的預期。我知道現在提供這一點還為時過早，但我只是希望你能讓我們了解你在弄清楚這一點時所經歷的過程，無論你是向上還是向下，然後如果你如果您對市場利率增長有所了解的話，我們今天就可以這樣做。

Yes, Eric. It's Sean. Good question. Good crystal ball question, I guess, I'll characterize it as. But we sort of do two things. We have a macro view and then there's sort of a grassroots bottom-up approach.

是的，埃里克。是肖恩。好問題。我想，這是一個很好的水晶球問題，我將其描述為。但我們做了兩件事。我們有宏觀視野，然後有一種草根自下而上的方法。

From a macro perspective, in terms of providing commentary today, that's probably where I'd spend the time, which is based on what we know today, we would anticipate that from a demand standpoint, things would decelerate as we move into 2024, just given what we've been seeing in terms of the expectation for slower job and wage growth and other potential headwinds as it relates to whether it's oil prices, obviously, interest costs, student loans, et cetera, et cetera. There's a number of macro factors that appear to be more headwinds.

從宏觀角度來看，就今天提供評論而言，這可能是我會花時間的地方，這是基於我們今天所知道的，我們預計從需求的角度來看，隨著我們進入2024 年，事情會減速，只是考慮到我們對就業和工資成長放緩的預期以及其他潛在的不利因素，因為這與石油價格、利息成本、學生貸款等等有關。有許多宏觀因素似乎更具阻力。

We take a really good look at the naive consensus forecast for a number of macroeconomic variables at multiple points throughout the year. But certainly, when we get into January, the latest forecast helps drive our outlook for 2024, like it does for pretty much every calendar year.

我們仔細研究了全年多個時間點對許多宏觀經濟變數的天真的共識預測。但可以肯定的是，當我們進入 1 月時，最新的預測有助於推動我們對 2024 年的展望，就像幾乎每個日曆年一樣。

And then we line that up with what we're seeing on the ground in terms of what actually it's going to deliver as we re-scrub our supply pipeline, et cetera, to try and estimate what affected market rent growth would be based on the algorithms we use.

然後，我們將其與我們在實地看到的情況相結合，即當我們重新清理我們的供應管道等時，它將實際提供什麼，以嘗試估計影響市場租金成長的因素將基於我們使用的演算法。

So it really is, again, a sort of macro top-down as well as a bottoms-up approach, depending on the variables that you're looking at. In terms of today, it's hard to provide an estimate other than, as I mentioned, we would expect a softer demand environment in 2024 as compared to '23 based on the current sort of consensus outlook for macro variables.

因此，這確實是一種自上而下的宏觀方法，也是一種自下而上的方法，具體取決於您正在查看的變數。就目前而言，很難提供其他估計，正如我所提到的，根據目前對宏觀變數的共識前景，我們預計 2024 年的需求環境將比 23 年更加疲軟。

Our next question comes from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Austin Wurschmidt。

More near term, I guess, has the moderation in lease rate growth been partly strategic as you sought to backfill some of the occupancy you lost around midyear? And then you've just kind of continued to build occupancy into the softer part of the leasing season. Or is this more related to the pockets of softness across the portfolio like in Northern California, it looks like, and then also in some of your expansion markets?

我想，從更近期的角度來看，租賃率成長的放緩是否在一定程度上具有戰略意義，因為您試圖填補年中左右失去的一些入住率？然後，在租賃季節的疲軟階段，您會繼續增加入住率。或者這與整個投資組合的疲軟有關，例如北加州，以及您的一些擴張市場？

Yes. Austin, good question. I'd say it's kind of a mix of those answers, frankly. At the early part of the third quarter, I would say it was more a reflection of our efforts to build occupancy, which was successful in a number of markets. Combined with, I'd say, one or two places that continue to remain soft and even a little softer as we got to the end of the third quarter. And I would certainly point to Northern California as the primary region where we experienced that. So really, a combination of two things as it relates to what you saw in rent change through the quarter as well as into October.

是的。奧斯汀，好問題。坦白說，我想說這是這些答案的混合。在第三季初期，我想說這更反映了我們為提高入住率所做的努力，這在許多市場都取得了成功。我想說的是，到第三季末時，一兩個地方繼續保持疲軟，甚至更加疲軟。我當然會指出北加州是我們經歷過這種情況的主要地區。實際上，這是兩件事的結合，因為它與您在整個季度以及十月份看到的租金變化有關。

And then just on the external growth side or just investment side. I mean how are you feeling about the size of the development pipeline? And based on what you do know today, do you think that as those deliveries and completions kind of pick up next year, are you going to be able to maintain the size of the pipeline in '24? Or do you think your dollars and dry powder are better spent on new acquisitions just given the risk reward profile and some of your strategic goals of getting into those expansion markets?

然後是外部成長方面或投資方面。我的意思是，您對開發通路的規模有何看法？根據您今天所了解的情況，您是否認為隨著明年交付量和竣工量的增加，您是否能夠在 24 年保持管道規模？或者，考慮到風險回報狀況和進入這些擴張市場的一些策略目標，您是否認為您的資金和乾粉更適合用於新收購？

Austin, I'll start with that. It's Ben. So on the developments we have underway, we do have strong conviction that those are going to continue to create meaningful earnings and value. And we obviously got good visibility there on when they're going to be delivering.

奧斯汀，我就從這個開始吧。是本。因此，就我們正在進行的發展而言，我們堅信這些發展將繼續創造有意義的利益和價值。我們顯然對他們何時交付有很好的了解。

And as we head into 2024 and 2025, do expect a fairly significant ramp-up of that activity. It may not be quite at the same outperformance levels that we've seen over the last year, but still expecting strong performance out of that pool.

隨著我們進入 2024 年和 2025 年，預計該活動將大幅增加。它可能並不完全達到我們去年看到的出色表現水平，但仍然預計該池會有強勁表現。

As we think about new capital and the decision-making process there on the development side, I think we've been very clear. We want to make sure if we're going to undertake new development that there's a sufficient profit margin relative to underlying market cap rates. Another way of saying, we want to make sure there's sufficient profit margin to where we could buy an asset.

當我們考慮新資本和開發方面的決策過程時​​，我認為我們已經非常清楚了。我們希望確保我們是否要進行新的開發，相對於基礎市值而言，有足夠的利潤率。換句話說，我們希望確保購買資產時有足夠的利潤率。

And in today's environment, there's been opportunities in both. There are certain markets and certain projects that we've been able to structure for new development where we're able to obtain sufficient spreads. And there are other markets, and you saw this in some of our acquisition activity over the last quarter or two, as an example, in Dallas, where we're able to buy assets below replacement cost and start to build the portfolio in those markets.

在當今的環境下，兩者都存在著機會。我們已經能夠在某些市場和某些項目上建立新的開發項目，從而獲得足夠的價差。還有其他市場，您在過去一兩個季度的一些收購活動中看到了這一點，例如，在達拉斯，我們能夠以低於重置成本的價格購買資產，並開始在這些市場建立投資組合。

So it's a multifaceted approach. We're fortunate in that we have multiple levels to grow over time. And as we've emphasized, it's on us as a team to make sure that we continue to stay flexible in that approach and change our approaches depending on what's happening in the market environment as well as what's happening with our cost of capital.

所以這是一個多方面的方法。我們很幸運，隨著時間的推移，我們有多個層次可以成長。正如我們所強調的，我們作為一個團隊有責任確保我們繼續保持這種方法的靈活性，並根據市場環境的情況以及我們的資本成本的情況改變我們的方法。

Our next question comes from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John Kim。

I wanted to ask on leasing trends in some of your markets, specifically Northern California, which looks like the lease growth rates kind of nosedived in September and October. And that diverged from Seattle, which is a similar market in terms of tech job growth, where you saw an improvement. But can you just discuss the demand picture? And why there was such a difference in performance in those two markets?

我想詢問你們一些市場的租賃趨勢，特別是北加州，看起來九月和十月的租賃成長率急劇下降。這與西雅圖不同，西雅圖在科技就業成長方面是一個類似的市場，在那裡你看到了改善。但你能只討論一下需求狀況嗎？為什麼這兩個市場的表現有如此差異？

Yes, John. It's Sean. Good question. There's a couple of different answers to that. So first, as it relates to what you saw in Seattle, which also occurred by the way, in the Mid-Atlantic and Denver, is that we're just starting to get into a period, particularly as we get further into the fourth quarter here, where the comps are easier on a year-over-year basis. And that's a reflection of the step-up that you saw in rent change in those three regions in a more meaningful way, particularly in Seattle, as you may have noticed.

是的，約翰。是肖恩。好問題。對此有幾個不同的答案。首先，與您在西雅圖看到的情況有關，順便說一句，在大西洋中部和丹佛也發生了這種情況，我們剛開始進入一個時期，特別是當我們進一步進入第四季度時在這裡，比賽比去年更容易。正如您可能已經註意到的那樣，這反映了您在這三個地區以更有意義的方式看到的租金變化的上升，特別是在西雅圖。

Whereas in Northern California, most concentrated in San Francisco, I would say, which is only 30% of our Nor Cal portfolio. Things did soften more so, particularly as we got to sort of mid-September into October, and that's what's reflected in the rent change you saw as it continued to tick down through the quarter and then more meaningfully into October.

而在北加州，主要集中在舊金山，我想說，這只占我們北加州投資組合的 30%。情況確實變得更加軟化，特別是當我們從九月中旬進入十月時，這就是你所看到的租金變化所反映的，因為它在整個季度繼續下降，然後更有意義地進入十月。

And I think there's a couple of things there. One is San Francisco, just to pick on it, since everyone seems to like to lately. It's -- there's a number of different headwinds there. As I think we're all well aware of, probably not the best time of the year to be seeing some elevated demand there. It's just not the case.

我認為其中有幾件事。其中之一是舊金山，只是挑挑揀揀，因為最近似乎每個人都喜歡去那裡。那裡有許多不同的阻力。我想我們都清楚，這可能不是一年中需求增加的最佳時機。事實並非如此。

And there's not really a great reason for people to be coming back to the office at this point still. So fundamentals have remained weak, and they did get weaker as we moved through the quarter into October. So trying to know exactly what's underneath that other than weaker demand overall, it's hard to be precise. But I'd say we did not see the same level of weakness in Seattle, and you combine that with the year-over-year comp in Seattle, and that's why you saw the uptick there.

目前還沒有真正讓人們回到辦公室的充分理由。因此，基本面仍然疲弱，而且隨著本季進入 10 月份，基本面確實變得更弱。因此，除了整體需求疲軟之外，想要確切了解背後的原因，很難準確。但我想說的是，我們在西雅圖並沒有看到同樣程度的疲軟，將其與西雅圖的同比對比相結合，這就是為什麼你看到西雅圖的成長。

So Seattle is still not strong. But on a relative basis compared to last year, for example, where there was a lot of short-term leasing activity throughout the year and then it burned off in the third quarter, put more pressure on rates at the end of Q3 and Q4. We didn't have a lot of that short-term demand in 2023 and, therefore, the year-over-year comp is easier.

所以說西雅圖還是不強。但與去年相比，例如，全年有大量短期租賃活動，然後在第三季消失，這給第三季末和第四季的利率帶來了更大的壓力。 2023 年我們沒有太多的短期需求，因此，比去年比較容易。

So not to get too far into the weeds, but that's some insight into what you saw in a place like Seattle as compared to Northern Cal.

因此，不要太深入雜草，但這是對你在西雅圖這樣的地方與北加州相比所看到的一些見解。

That's very helpful. My second question is on bad debt, which you discussed, has improved this year and is likely to be a tailwind in '24 earnings. My question is how much of an improvement can you see from the 2.1% pre-resident relief funds that you got this quarter? And in particular, Southeast Florida was, surprisingly, your worst-performing market in bad debt. And I was wondering if you could provide some commentary on that.

這非常有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於壞賬，正如您所討論的，壞帳今年有所改善，並且可能成為 24 年盈利的推動力。我的問題是，您認為本季獲得的 2.1% 居民前救濟金有多大改善？令人驚訝的是，佛羅裡達州東南部是壞帳表現最差的市場。我想知道你是否可以對此發表一些評論。

Sure. So on the first question, as it relates to bad debt, so 2023, if you look at the beginning of the year to sort of where we're trending today, just sort of rough justice, there's about 100 basis point improvement in underlying bad debt, roughly 3%, down to sort of trending around 2% today.

當然。因此，關於第一個問題，因為它與壞帳有關，所以到 2023 年，如果你看看今年年初我們今天的趨勢，粗略地說，潛在壞帳將改善約 100 個基點債務率大約是3%，目前已降至2% 左右。

We've seen improvement across almost all regions, Florida kind of being the outlier, as you noted. But I think what we've seen in 2023, there was meaningful improvement in a market like Southern California, which started the year at roughly 6%, and now we're below 3%, as compared to some other regions that certainly improved but it improved at a more modest rate.

正如您所指出的，我們幾乎所有地區都看到了改善，佛羅裡達州是個例外。但我認為，我們在2023 年看到，像南加州這樣的市場出現了有意義的改善，年初的成長率約為6%，而現在我們低於3%，而其他一些地區確實有所改善，但它以較溫和的速度改善。

So as we look forward to 2024, I think the expectation for continued improvement is there. But it may be at a slightly lower rate than what we experienced in 2023, given the meaningful improvement that we experienced in Southern California.

因此，當我們展望 2024 年時，我認為持續改善的期望是存在的。但考慮到我們在南加州經歷的有意義的改善，這一速度可能會比 2023 年的情況略低。

And now we're down to some regions, like New York as an example, where things are moving a little more slowly. So the pace of improvement throughout 2024 may be slightly lower than what we experienced throughout 2023, if that makes sense.

現在我們來看看一些地區，像是紐約，那裡的情況進展得慢一些。因此，如果有道理的話，2024 年全年的改進速度可能會略低於我們在 2023 年全年經歷的情況。

But the other thing to keep in mind is that we will have some meaningful improvement, but it will be partially offset by the loss of rent relief that's going to be, call it, roughly $7 million that we're not expecting to recognize in 2024 that we did recognize in 2023. So these are some of the building blocks as it relates to bad debt that hopefully are helpful.

但要記住的另一件事是，我們將取得一些有意義的改進，但這將被租金減免的損失部分抵消，這大約是 700 萬美元，我們預計 2024 年不會意識到這一點我們確實在2023 年認識到了這一點。因此，這些是與壞帳相關的一些組成部分，希望能有所幫助。

As it relates to Florida, specifically, what I would tell you is where we've seen elevated bad debt and frankly, it's been beyond our expectations. It's really been in Miami and Fort Lauderdale. The West Palm Beach market has held up kind of where we would have expected it would have been, but it has been elevated in the other two markets beyond what our expectation was.

具體來說，因為它與佛羅裡達州有關，我要告訴你的是我們看到壞帳增加，坦白說，這超出了我們的預期。確實是在邁阿密和勞德代爾堡。西棕櫚灘市場的表現符合我們的預期，但其他兩個市場的漲幅超出了我們的預期。

Our next question comes from Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當·克萊默。

Wondering where you're sending out lease renewals for November and December at?

想知道您將在哪裡發送 11 月和 12 月的續約合約？

Yes, Adam. We sent them out at 6% for November and December, which is relatively consistent with what we quoted for where we were for the 2 months of Q3 on the last call. We have seen in some markets a little more degradation in terms of the committed offer to realization. But it's still within sort of the 150 to 200 basis point range, where we're seeing renewals come in at 4% to 4.5%, depending on the more recent time period you're looking at.

是的，亞當。我們在 11 月和 12 月以 6% 的價格發出了它們，這與我們上次電話會議中對第三季 2 個月的報價相對一致。我們發現，在某些市場中，承諾兌現的報價會有所下降。但它仍然在 150 到 200 個基點範圍內，我們看到續約率為 4% 到 4.5%，具體取決於您所關注的最近時間段。

Got it. Helpful. Yes. And then maybe just another quick one. Just remind us kind of where -- or in the most recent quarter, where -- what the percent of move-outs to buy a home was?

知道了。有幫助。是的。然後也許只是另一個快速的。只是提醒我們，在哪裡——或者在最近一個季度，哪裡——搬出買房的百分比是多少？

Yes. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, it's been trending below 10% all year. It's about 9.5% in Q3. I think we're roughly 9% for Q2, so it has been trending down. As I mentioned, the long-term average is kind of in the mid-teens, and it's been as high as the sort of high teens kind of pre-GFC.

是的。正如我在準備好的演講中提到的，這一比例全年都低於 10%。第三季約為 9.5%。我認為第二季的成長率約為 9%，因此一直呈下降趨勢。正如我所提到的，長期平均水平大約在十幾歲左右，並且與全球金融危機前的十幾歲左右一樣高。

Great. And maybe just one last quick one for me, if that's okay, which is just from the bad debt kind of progression. I'm not asking for kind of a specific time frame or number necessarily. But if you think about kind of the recovery path back to pre-COVID levels, first of all, I guess, is that kind of the goal? To kind of -- or is it achievable, I guess, to kind of get all the way back to pre-COVID levels? And then kind of what's the rough kind of time frame for getting back there?

偉大的。如果可以的話，也許對我來說只是最後一個快速的，這只是來自壞帳的進展。我不一定要求特定的時間範圍或數字。但如果你考慮恢復到新冠疫情前水準的恢復路徑，首先，我想，這就是目標嗎？我想，或者說是否可以完全回到新冠疫情前的水平？那麼回到那裡的大致時間範圍是多少？

Yes. Good question. In terms of pre-COVID levels, which are typically, call it, 50, 60 basis points for us, the question is whether it's going to be a new normal or not. I think probably, the industry expectations, given various regulatory changes that have occurred in both markets or across the country, that it might be ideal to get back to 50, 60 basis points. Maybe 70, 80 is more realistic. I don't think we really know yet.

是的。好問題。就新冠疫情爆發前的水平而言，我們通常稱之為 50、60 個基點，問題是這是否會成為新常態。我認為，鑑於兩個市場或全國範圍內發生的各種監管變化，行業預期可能會理想地回到 50、60 個基點。也許70、80比較現實。我認為我們還不知道。

And in terms of the time to get there, certainly, what I would say is I don't believe we'll get back to full stabilization by the end of 2024. I would expect it to carry into 2025. And what we really need to see is a little more movement as it relates to cases moving through the courts, particularly in markets like Maryland, D.C. and the Greater New York region.

就實現這一目標的時間而言，當然，我想說的是，我不相信我們會在 2024 年底之前恢復完全穩定。我預計它會持續到 2025 年。我們真正需要什麼看到的是更多的變化，因為它涉及法院審理的案件，特別是在馬裡蘭州、華盛頓特區和大紐約地區等市場。

As I mentioned earlier, we've seen significant progress in Southern California, 6% bad debt, down sub-3% now. We haven't seen anything like that in terms of percentage improvement in some of the other regions I just mentioned.

正如我之前提到的，我們看到南加州取得了重大進展，壞帳率為 6%，現在下降了不到 3%。在我剛才提到的其他一些地區，我們還沒有看到類似的百分比改善。

Our next question comes from John Pawlowski with Green Street.

我們的下一個問題來自 Green Street 的 John Pawlowski。

Just a follow-up on the -- just the delinquent tenant conversation. As you work through the backlog of evictions and long-term delinquent units, do you expect a meaningful acceleration in repair and maintenance costs next year?

只是關於拖欠房客談話的後續行動。當您處理積壓的驅逐和長期拖欠單位時，您預計明年的維修和維護成本會大幅增加嗎？

Yes. Good question, John. We can. We have seen some of that this year as reflected in what we've posted in terms of cost because there's, yes, just greater damage in the units. And obviously, you might be billing damage receipts back to the resident, but then you're pretty much immediately writing it off because you're not collecting it.

是的。好問題，約翰。我們可以。今年我們已經看到了其中的一些情況，這反映在我們發布的成本方面，因為是的，這些單位的損壞更大。顯然，您可能會將損壞收據開回給居民，但隨後您幾乎會立即將其註銷，因為您沒有收取它。

So I would say that, that has been elevated this year, and I would expect that, along with legal and eviction costs, to also remain elevated in 2024. It may not be a significant growth rate from '23 to '24, but it should remain elevated in both categories.

因此，我想說，今年這一數字有所上升，我預計，連同法律和驅逐成本，到2024 年，這一數字也將保持在較高水平。從23 年到24 年，增長率可能不會顯著，但它在這兩個類別中都應保持在較高水準。

Okay. Sean, one market-level question. Can you just give us a color -- some color on the large sequential revenue decline in D.C. proper this past quarter?

好的。肖恩，一個市場層面的問題。您能否給我們一個顏色 - 上個季度華盛頓特區收入連續大幅下降的一些顏色？

Yes, D.C. proper, there's a number of issues there, as it relates to -- primarily, what you've got is sort of a seasonal issue. We have probably three assets there that have exposure to the student population near AU or other universities. And so you typically see that occur sequentially during that quarter, and then it bounces back in Q4. That's the most meaningful component.

是的，在華盛頓特區，存在著許多問題，因為它主要涉及季節性問題。我們在那裡可能擁有三項資產，可以接觸到 AU 或其他大學附近的學生群體。因此，您通常會看到這種情況在該季度連續發生，然後在第四季度反彈。這是最有意義的組成部分。

There are other miscellaneous things as it relates to supply in the NoMa submarket and other things that you could overlay on top of that. But by far, the sequential change of the student population is the most meaningful one.

還有其他雜項，因為它與 NoMa 子市場的供應有關，以及您可以在此基礎上疊加的其他內容。但到目前為止，學生人數的連續變化是最有意義的。

Our next question is from James Feldman with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的詹姆斯·費爾德曼。

Great. I guess for my first question, can you just talk more about the acquisitions, both in the quarter and the October acquisitions? I guess what I'd love to hear about is how distressed were the sellers? How much did pricing move before you decided to buy the assets? Just any color on what the market looks like in pricing.

偉大的。我想對於我的第一個問題，您能否多談談本季和 10 月的收購？我想我想聽的是賣家有多苦惱？在您決定購買資產之前，定價變動了多少？只是市場定價中的任何顏色。

Sure. It's Matt. I'll speak to that one. So again, just taking a step back here, we sold $445 million worth of assets this year, including one -- our last dispo, which will close at the end -- close next week.

當然。是馬特。我會和那個人談談。再說一遍，我們今年出售了價值 4.45 億美元的資產，其中包括一項——我們的最後一次處置，將於年底結束——下週關閉。

And those were at a kind of a blended average cap rate in the high 4s. And those were kind of sold and priced throughout the year, i.e., a better pricing earlier in the year, softer pricing later in the year. We bought three assets for about $275 million, all in the last 60 days. Those cap rates were more like mid-4s.

這些混合平均資本化率在 4 左右。這些產品是全年銷售和定價的，即今年稍早的定價更好，今年稍後的定價更軟。我們在過去 60 天內斥資約 2.75 億美元購買了三項資產。這些上限利率更像是 4 美元左右。

And I would say, in no cases were the seller distressed. In one of those cases, we did assume some debt, which probably gave a little boost to the price. So -- and all of those assets, if we -- if they were to price in today's market, would certainly price at a higher cap rate than that. I don't know how much higher.

我想說的是，賣家在任何情況下都不會感到苦惱。在其中一個案例中，我們確實承擔了一些債務，這可能會稍微提振價格。因此，如果我們對所有這些資產在今天的市場上進行定價，其上限利率肯定會高於這一水平。不知道高了多少。

But same with the dispos. And again, what happened is we pivoted to being a net seller of assets, so we sell first. And in many cases, we're holding some of those proceeds for a 1031 exchange, and that's informing kind of our appetite on the buy side. So we were net sellers of $200 million or really more like $230 million after you factor in the assumed debt in terms of the cash proceeds we realized from it.

但與處置相同。再說一遍，我們轉向成為資產淨賣家，所以我們首先出售。在許多情況下，我們會持有其中的部分收益用於 1031 交易，這表明了我們對買方的興趣。因此，如果將我們從中實現的現金收益考慮到承擔的債務中，我們的淨賣家價值為 2 億美元，或實際上更像是 2.3 億美元。

The other thing I'd say is when you think about what we bought versus what we sold, it is a good illustration of what we're doing with our portfolio allocation. We sold the four assets out of our established regions. They were, on average, 25 years old. We sold them at an average price of $450,000 a unit, and the average rents on those assets was $3,300 a month.

我要說的另一件事是，當你考慮我們購買的商品和出售的商品時，這很好地說明了我們在投資組合配置方面所做的事情。我們將這四項資產出售出我們已建立的地區。他們的平均年齡為 25 歲。我們以每套 45 萬美元的平均價格出售它們，這些資產的平均租金為每月 3,300 美元。

The three assets we bought were in Dallas and in the Greater Charlotte area. In all three cases, they are assets where we are able to add value through our operating platform in many cases. It's part of getting to operating scale in those regions. So we think that while the cap rate is in mid-4s, the yield is more like a 5.

我們購買的三項資產位於達拉斯和大夏洛特地區。在所有這三種情況下，它們都是我們在許多情況下能夠透過我們的營運平台增加價值的資產。這是在這些地區實現營運規模的一部分。因此，我們認為雖然上限利率處於 4 左右，但收益率更像是 5。

Between some value-add, we're doing a little bit of light value-add, with washer dryers and some hard surface flooring. But a lot of it is just bringing it onto our operating platform as we get economies of scale in those regions.

在一些增值之間，我們正在做一些輕微的增值，包括洗衣機和烘乾機和一些硬面地板。但隨著我們在這些地區獲得規模經濟，其中許多只是將其引入我們的營運平台。

And those three assets, on average, are 7 years old. We paid, on average, $245,000 a door, which is below today's replacement cost, as Ben mentioned, and average rent of $1,700. So a much more affordable price point, which we think has a much better growth profile.

這三項資產的平均使用期間為 7 年。正如 Ben 所提到的，我們平均為每扇門支付 245,000 美元，低於今天的重置成本，平均租金為 1,700 美元。因此，價格更加實惠，我們認為它具有更好的成長前景。

Okay. I mean MAA commented this morning that they're seeing developers cut rents so that they can get occupancy up and get assets ready for sale if they're having debt maturities.

好的。我的意思是，MAA 今天早上評論說，他們看到開發商削減租金，以便在債務到期時提高入住率並準備好出售資產。

So I guess sticking with kind of the distressed line of questioning, I mean do you think that's coming your way in your expansion markets? And then similarly, as you think about the SIP book over the next few years, I know you mentioned $400 million, but do you think this environment helps you accelerate that? And do you have a view on maybe what you could do over the next 12 months? And what kind of yields?

所以我想繼續用一種苦惱的方式提問，我的意思是你認為這會在你的擴張市場中出現嗎？同樣，當您考慮未來幾年的 SIP 書時，我知道您提到了 4 億美元，但您認為這種環境是否有助於您加速這一目標？您對未來 12 個月可以做些什麼有什麼看法嗎？以及什麼樣的收益率？

Jamie, it's Ben. I'll step in. We're not seeing distress at this point. We do expect there to be some dislocation that comes through the system. And on the buying side, a couple of different areas in which we're hunting.

傑米，是本。我會介入。目前我們還沒有看到痛苦。我們確實預期系統會出現一些混亂。在購買方面，我們正在尋找幾個不同的領域。

One is what Matt talked about, places where we can be adding to the density of our portfolio assets and nearby other assets, places where we can add incremental value by bringing the operating initiative activity over to our acquisitions. So that's very much top of mind.

一是馬特談到的，我們可以增加我們的投資組合資產和附近其他資產的密度，我們可以透過將營運計劃活動轉移到我們的收購中來增加增量價值。所以這是最重要的。

Another potential pool, and we've been staying close to potential opportunities here, are deals and lease-up that maybe are coming up against nearer-term loan maturities. What we've been seeing there to date is situations where equity capital is putting more equity into those deals, effectively recapitalizing them and/or lenders who are agreeing to extend out those loans.

另一個潛在的池，我們一直在密切關注這裡的潛在機會，是可能會遇到近期貸款到期的交易和租賃。到目前為止，我們看到的是股權資本在這些交易中投入更多股權，有效地對這些交易和/或同意發放這些貸款的貸方進行資本重組。

And so what you're finding is borrowers and lenders are agreeing to say, I'll extend it out, you get the step-up in the interest rate. Not going to be a lot of cash flow generated off of the asset but better to extend there, get the asset fully leased, then monetize it, at least for the types of assets in the markets that we're looking to acquire in.

所以你會發現借款人和貸款人都同意說，我會延長期限，你會得到利率的提高。資產不會產生大量現金流，但更好的是擴展到那裡，將資產完全出租，然後將其貨幣化，至少對於我們希望收購的市場中的資產類型而言是如此。

Now that won't be the case, right, for all types of equity. There's going to be equity that doesn't have the ability to put in more capital, and it won't be the case for all types of lenders, right? There's only certain profiles of lenders that can extend out. So it's an area that we are staying close to.

現在，對於所有類型的股權來說，情況並非如此，對吧。將會出現沒有能力投入更多資本的股權，而且並非所有類型的貸方都會出現這種情況，對嗎？只有某些貸款人的資料可以延期。所以這是我們非常接近的一個區域。

Quickly, on kind of two other areas of opportunity, one on the land side. So our developers, as Matt talked about today, are actively reworking our existing pipeline, recutting deals, restriking deals. We're also out looking for new land opportunities. And in the current capital environment and our expectations for what that capital environment will be over the next year, we expect to see opportunities there.

很快，在另外兩個機會領域，一個是在陸地方面。因此，正如馬特今天談到的那樣，我們的開發人員正在積極改造我們現有的管道，重新削減交易，重新啟動交易。我們還在尋找新的土地機會。在當前的資本環境以及我們對明年資本環境的預期下，我們預計會在那裡看到機會。

Apparently, there's going to be less competition from merchant builders in those markets. So we'll be selective, but that could be a fruitful area. And then the third area of opportunity is providing capital to the third-party developers. And we have two programs there, DFP and SIP.

顯然，這些市場中來自商業建築商的競爭將會減少。所以我們會有所選擇，但這可能是個富有成效的領域。第三個機會領域是為第三方開發人員提供資金。我們在那裡有兩個計劃：DFP 和 SIP。

We'll be selective. But for sure, in terms of the quality of sponsor that's approaching us, the quality of the real estate that they have under control and the return profile of those deals, all of that is enhanced in this environment. And so that's another place that we can deploy capital accretively.

我們會選擇性的。但可以肯定的是，就接近我們的贊助商的品質、他們所控制的房地產的品質以及這些交易的回報情況而言，所有這些都在這種環境下得到了改善。因此，這是我們可以增值部署資本的另一個地方。

So on the SIP, do you have a sense of how much you can deploy over the next year or so?

那麼，對於 SIP，您是否了解在未來一年左右可以部署多少？

So in the SIP, it's -- we have a target of building that book of business up to $300 million to $500 million over a couple of year period. Given the financing markets, it is tough for deals to pencil, but there are some that do.

因此，在 SIP 中，我們的目標是在幾年內將業務規模擴大到 3 億至 5 億美元。考慮到融資市場，交易很難達成，但也有一些交易能夠達成。

We are very selective. These are deals we're underwriting not to own them, but to be comfortable owning them if we need to. And in places where we can get a 13% return, we think that's a pretty attractive source of capital. So it's an area of focus. I wouldn't necessarily say it's an area we're looking to accelerate activity. We want to build that book up in a measured way over the next couple of years.

我們非常有選擇性。我們承保這些交易並不是為了擁有它們，而是為了在需要時能夠安心地擁有它們。在我們可以獲得 13% 回報率的地方，我們認為這是一個相當有吸引力的資本來源。所以這是一個重點領域。我不一定會說這是我們尋求加速活動的一個領域。我們希望在接下來的幾年裡以謹慎的方式充實這本書。

Our next question comes from Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

My first question is on customer behavior. Can you provide a little color on traffic, the percentage of people looking to move out to buy homes, and just if you're seeing anything about residents doubling up? And related to that, I believe it seems like a long time ago, but November, December of 2022 was particularly weak and then it rebounded in -- early in 2023. So how are you thinking about the last 3 months? Do you expect the trajectory to repeat as it did last year? Or should we see some better growth in the fourth quarter here on the easier comparisons?

我的第一個問題是關於客戶行為。您能否提供一些關於交通狀況、想要搬出去買房的人的百分比以及您是否看到居民加倍購買的資訊？與此相關的是，我相信這似乎是很久以前的事了，但 2022 年 11 月、12 月特別疲弱，然後在 2023 年初反彈。那麼您如何看待過去 3 個月？您預計這一軌跡會像去年一樣重演嗎？或者我們應該在更容易的比較中看到第四季度更好的成長？

Yes, Michael. It's Sean. I'll take those. So in terms of customer behavior, I'd say the trends we've seen this year have remained relatively consistent. As I mentioned earlier, in response to a question in my prepared remarks, move-outs to purchase a home is well, well below long-term averages, sub-10%, and has been below there for some time now.

是的，邁克爾。是肖恩。我會接受那些。因此，就客戶行為而言，我想說我們今年看到的趨勢保持相對一致。正如我之前在回答我準備好的發言中的一個問題時提到的，搬出購房的人數遠低於長期平均水平，低於 10%，並且已經低於該水平一段時間了。

So not surprising, given everything you're experiencing in the single-family for sale market, in terms of run-up in values and rates and now the slowing market, et cetera, people are not terribly inclined to purchase a home. And renting is not only more affordable, but if you're sort of in a risk-off mode, you may not want to consider it anyways.

因此，考慮到您在單戶待售市場上所經歷的一切，從價值和價格的上漲以及現在市場放緩等方面來看，人們不太願意購買房屋，這並不奇怪。租房不僅更便宜，而且如果你處於規避風險的模式，你可能無論如何也不想考慮它。

Nothing else notable, I would say, in terms of customer behavior at this point in time. As you noted, the year-over-year comp does get easier as we proceed further into Q4. So a little bit of that, as I mentioned, in October as it relates to the uptick in rent change in the Mid-Atlantic, Denver and Seattle regions.

我想說，就目前的客戶行為而言，沒有什麼值得注意的了。正如您所指出的，隨著我們進入第四季度，同比比較確實變得更加容易。正如我在 10 月提到的，其中一點與中大西洋、丹佛和西雅圖地區租金變化的上升有關。

And we do expect rent change to somewhat stabilize as we look at November and December. And while it won't be anything that's super terrific in terms of a significant rebound, as an example, it should be more stable than what we experienced last year based on what we know today.

從 11 月和 12 月來看，我們確實預期租金變動將有所穩定。舉例來說，雖然就顯著反彈而言不會有什麼特別了不起的事情，但根據我們今天所了解的情況，它應該比我們去年經歷的情況更加穩定。

And my follow-up question is related to taxes. The New York City tax burn-off was a significant factor in the real estate tax. What's the expected impact going forward? And how should we think about real estate tax for the expansion markets versus the coastal markets?

我的後續問題與稅收有關。紐約市的稅收消耗是房地產稅的重要因素。未來的預期影響是什麼？我們該如何考慮擴張市場與沿海市場的房地產稅？

Yes. Good question. As it relates to property taxes, which are about 35% of our expense structure, we do expect another elevated year of tax pressure in 2024. Most of it related to the expiration of those tax abatement programs that we experienced this year. And the level of impact next year will be relatively similar to 2023.

是的。好問題。由於它與約占我們費用結構 35% 的財產稅相關，我們預計 2024 年稅收壓力將再次加大。其中大部分與我們今年經歷的減稅計劃到期有關。明年的影響水準將與 2023 年相對相似。

As it relates to tax rate -- or just tax growth in the Sunbelt or our expansion regions versus the established regions, independent of the expiration of those tax abatement programs, certainly, I would expect more pressure in the expansion regions and the Sunbelt in general, given the significant run-up in values that they have experienced over the last 3 years, relative to the established regions. I think that's pretty clear.

由於它與稅率有關，或者只是與陽光地帶或我們的擴張地區相對於已建立地區的稅收增長有關，與這些減稅計劃的到期無關，當然，我預計擴張地區和整個陽光地帶會面臨更大的壓力，考慮到過去 3 年相對於已建立的地區而言，它們的價值顯著上升。我認為這很清楚。

There's always a lag effect. So the question is just which market, which submarket, tax jurisdiction, et cetera. But certainly, expect more pressure in those regions as compared to our established regions, which is still the majority of our portfolio.

總是存在滯後效應。所以問題只是哪個市場、哪個子市場、稅務管轄權等等。但可以肯定的是，與我們已建立的地區相比，這些地區的壓力預計會更大，而這些地區仍然是我們投資組合的大部分。

Our next question comes from Joshua Dennerlein with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Joshua Dennerlein。

I appreciate the disclosure on the two new project starts in the mid-6s. And then also how you're kind of beating that with the projects in lease-up right now. You've got 90 basis point higher spread. Just trying to...

我很欣賞關於 6 年代中期開始的兩個新項目的披露。然後還有你現在如何透過租賃項目來克服這一點。您的利差提高了 90 個基點。只是想...

Josh, we're getting a lot of feedback on the call. We can't really hear you.

喬希，我們在這通電話中收到了很多回饋。我們真的聽不到你說話。

Is that better?

那個更好嗎？

Not really. Why don't you dial back in, and we'll you back in the line.

並不真地。為什麼不重新撥入，我們會讓您重新排隊。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

The next question comes from Steve Sakwa with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Steve Sakwa。

I just want to circle back on the development. So are you guys planning development starts in the fourth quarter? Or is it up in the air? It sounded like, Matt, you had some things that would pencil on that, high 6%, maybe 7% range. But I'm just not sure if you actually were starting anything in the fourth quarter. And if we think about '24 starts, would those most likely be back half-weighted to give yourself some time to kind of see how the economy plays out here?

我只想回顧一下事情的發展。那麼你們計劃在第四季開始開發嗎？還是懸而未決？聽起來，馬特，你有一些可以用鉛筆畫出來的​​東西，高 6%，也許 7% 的範圍。但我只是不確定你是否真的在第四季度開始了任何事情。如果我們考慮 24 年的開賽，那些最有可能回歸半權重的球員是否會給自己一些時間來看看這裡的經濟表現如何？

Yes, Steve. Yes, we may well start a deal in the fourth quarter that would be on similar economics to the Q3 starts. Again, we're 95% match-funded on development underway today. So if we have deals that we think make sense, we think we do have some room there.

是的，史蒂夫。是的，我們很可能在第四季開始一項與第三季啟動類似的經濟交易。同樣，我們今天正在進行的開發工作已獲得 95% 的配套資金。因此，如果我們有我們認為有意義的交易，我們認為我們確實有一些空間。

So I wouldn't be surprised if we have a similar level of start activity in Q4 to Q3, maybe whether it's one or two deals, I don't know. When we think about '24, I think you're probably right. It probably is more back half-weighted based on kind of how the capital markets evolve and kind of our access to and pricing of new capital that would fund that business.

因此，如果我們在第四季和第三季的啟動活動水平相似，我不會感到驚訝，也許是一筆交易還是兩筆交易，我不知道。當我們想到“24”時，我認為你可能是對的。根據資本市場的演變方式以及我們為該業務提供資金的新資本的獲取和定價方式，它可能會更偏向半權重。

But we've been in a -- again, for us, if we track to roughly $800 million in starts this year or maybe a little bit under that, that would be a pretty light year for us and certainly lighter than what we expected going into the year, which was the same last year. So we're at a pretty modest level of starts volume relative to our kind of long-run capacity and averages. And that's a response to what we're seeing in the markets, but I don't think we would view that as a significant level.

但我們已經經歷了——再說一次，對我們來說，如果我們今年的啟動資金達到大約8 億美元，或者可能略低於這個數字，那對我們來說將是相當輕鬆的一年，而且肯定比我們預期的要輕。進入今年，與去年相同。因此，相對於我們的長期產能和平均值，我們的開工量水準相當適中。這是對我們在市場上看到的情況的反應，但我認為我們不會認為這是一個重要的水平。

Got it. And then just secondly, on expenses, they've come in a little bit better than what you originally guided, but still kind of elevated in the 6-plus range. Just as you think about the puts and takes into next year, how do you maybe see expenses trending? What might be a little bit better and what overall might be still headwinds into next year?

知道了。其次，在費用方面，它們比您最初指導的要好一些，但仍然在 6 以上的範圍內有所提高。就像您思考明年的看跌期權和跌跌期權一樣，您如何看待支出趨勢？明年哪些方面可能會好一點，哪些整體上仍會遇到阻力？

Yes, Steve. It's Sean. I can take that one. I mean we do expect 2024 to be another somewhat elevated year, primarily due to a few factors I can touch on. One, I mentioned earlier, property taxes, which is about 35% of our expense structure. We do expect it to grow at an elevated rate due to the expiration of those tax abatement programs that I mentioned previously.

是的，史蒂夫。是肖恩。我可以接受那個。我的意思是，我們確實預計 2024 年將是另一個有所提升的一年，這主要是由於我可以談論的幾個因素。一是我之前提到的財產稅，約占我們支出結構的 35%。由於我之前提到的那些減稅計劃到期，我們確實預計它會以較高的速度成長。

The PILOT burden in 2024, the burn-off there is relatively similar to 2023, before we see it begin to step down in 2025. Utilities, which is about 12% of the expense structure. The continued implementation of our AvalonConnect offering, which is a profitable endeavor, we're expecting kind of $25 million of incremental NOI from that program. But it is a burden on OpEx growth as it's being implemented, and we do expect that to be continuing through 2024 as well.

2024 年飛行員負擔的消耗與 2023 年相對相似，然後我們看到它在 2025 年開始下降。公用事業，約佔費用結構的 12%。我們的 AvalonConnect 產品的持續實施是一項有利可圖的努力，我們預計該計劃將帶來 2500 萬美元的增量 NOI。但它的實施會給營運支出成長帶來負擔，我們預計這種情況也將持續到 2024 年。

And then two other sort of pressure points really are going to be insurance. Even though it's only 5% of OpEx, it's still a difficult market. We'll be trying to mitigate that pressure through the use of our captive and other strategies to help offset it relative to market growth rate. But it still maybe elevated relative to sort of normal trends.

然後另外兩種壓力點確實會變成保險。儘管它只佔營運支出的 5%，但這仍然是一個困難的市場。我們將嘗試透過使用我們的自保策略和其他策略來減輕這種壓力，以幫助抵消相對於市場成長率的壓力。但相對於正常趨勢，它仍然可能有所上升。

And then the last one is the repairs and maintenance and legal costs, which I mentioned earlier, is a result of continuing to move out sort of the nonpaying residents and puts pressure on turn costs, legal and eviction cost, et cetera. Some of that will be offset by continued benefits from the initiatives, particularly on the payroll side of things. But certainly, we won't be able to offset all those other macro trends that we'd see occurring in '24 similar to '23.

最後一個是維修保養和法律費用，我之前提到過，這是繼續搬離不付費居民的結果，並對週轉成本、法律和驅逐成本等造成壓力。其中一些將被這些措施的持續收益所抵消，特別是在工資方面。但當然，我們無法抵銷 24 年出現的所有其他與 23 年類似的宏觀趨勢。

So not to maybe put words in your mouth, Sean, but it sounds like the 6.3%, I don't want to call it a run rate, but it doesn't sound like there's a lot of nonrecurring that would really burn down. It sounds like expenses could be kind of in that ballpark for next year or maybe a little bit better, but elevated, I guess, relative to history.

所以，肖恩，不要把話放在嘴裡，但這聽起來像是 6.3%，我不想稱其為運行率，但聽起來並不像有很多非經常性的事情會真正被燒毀。聽起來明年的支出可能會在這個範圍內，或者可能會好一點，但我想，相對於歷史而言，支出會有所上升。

Yes. I think the elevated relative to history is the operative statement there. I think that's appropriate. There may be a little bit of relief in some areas. Like in utilities, we should have some better contracts in '24 relative to '23. But we still do have the AvalonConnect offering. Again, it's profitable, but moving through the year. So I think your phrase is generally in the ballpark.

是的。我認為相對於歷史的提升是那裡的主要表述。我認為這是合適的。某些地區可能會有所緩解。就像公用事業一樣，相對於 23 年，我們在 24 年應該會有一些更好的合約。但我們仍然有 AvalonConnect 產品。同樣，它是有利可圖的，但全年都在變化。所以我認為你的說法大致上是在大致範圍內。

Our next question comes from Connor Mitchell with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自康納·米切爾和派珀·桑德勒。

So my first question, you guys talked about distressed deals in the environment a little bit. So I guess I was just wondering, when you guys approach distressed deals in taking over private deals, how does it compare for the underwriting of those deals versus your internal underwriting? Are the assumptions similar? Or do you guys have to make a lot of adjustments? And maybe also that can relate to the SIP program you were discussing earlier about how you underwrite those in the case you have to take over a project.

所以我的第一個問題，你們談到了環境中的不良交易。所以我想我只是想知道，當你們在接管私人交易時處理不良交易時，這些交易的承銷與內部承銷相比如何？假設相似嗎？或者你們需要做很多調整嗎？也許這也可能與您之前討論的 SIP 計劃有關，即在您必須接管專案的情況下如何承保這些計劃。

I guess I can try and take that one. It's -- we underwrite everything more or less the same, which is we develop our own view of what we think the NOI is going to be and where we think the asset value would be.

我想我可以嘗試接受那個。我們承保的一切或多或少都是相同的，即我們對 NOI 的情況以及我們認為資產價值的情況形成自己的看法。

And so in the SIP, frequently, almost always, the sponsor will provide a projection of NOI that we think is overly optimistic. And again, we have a lot of data that we can leverage to do good underwriting in these programs. And the fact that we own and operate assets and have real rent rolls and everything else in all of these markets is one reason why we think that this is an appropriate place for us to invest in a prudent way and leverage our capabilities and our proprietary data.

因此，在 SIP 中，贊助商經常（幾乎總是）會提供我們認為過於樂觀的 NOI 預測。同樣，我們擁有大量數據，可以利用這些數據在這些計劃中進行良好的承保。事實上，我們擁有並經營資產，並在所有這些市場中擁有真實的租金和其他一切，這一事實是我們認為這是我們以審慎方式投資並利用我們的能力和專有數據的合適場所的原因之一。

So we get their underwriting. We kind of -- I won't say we throw it in the trash, but we do our own underwriting. And based on that, we come up with our own view of where we think the NOI would be for that asset, very similar to if it was an asset we were developing. And then we build in a margin of safety on that when we think about how high we're willing to lend in the capital stack under the expectation that, again, we're going to be paid back out of an asset sale in the back end.

所以我們得到了他們的承保。我們有點——我不會說我們把它扔進垃圾桶，但我們自己承保。在此基礎上，我們就該資產的 NOI 提出了自己的看法，這與我們正在開發的資產非常相似。然後，當我們考慮我們願意在資本堆疊中貸出多高的資金時，我們會在此基礎上建立安全邊際，因為我們將再次從後面的資產出售中獲得回報結尾。

And -- but we are prepared to step in at our lender basis and have the view that if we have to step in at our lender basis because they can pay us back, that would not be a bad outcome for us from an investment point of view, the basis we would be in that asset. So there are some assets we just wouldn't lend on because we wouldn't be prepared. We wouldn't want to own them really under almost at any price. So that's one of our screens in the SIP.

而且 - 但我們準備好介入我們的貸方基礎，並認為如果我們必須介入我們的貸方基礎，因為他們可以償還我們的錢，從投資的角度來看，這對我們來說不會是一個壞結果視圖，我們將在該資產中的基礎。因此，有些資產我們不會借出，因為我們沒有做好準備。我們不想以幾乎任何價格都無法真正擁有它們。這是我們在 SIP 中的螢幕之一。

As it relates to acquisitions or development, it's kind of the same. We'll just look at where we think the deal should underwrite. And based on that, we'll formulate a view of what we think it's worth and make an offer and see if we can tie it up.

當涉及到收購或開發時，情況是一樣的。我們只會看看我們認為這筆交易應該承銷的地方。在此基礎上，我們將形成我們認為它的價值的觀點，並提出報價，看看我們是否可以將其捆綁起來。

Connor, maybe just to add one thing. I'm not sure if this is exactly where you were going, but we do try to apply what we think is sort of a market-based underwriting given our standards.

康納，也許只是補充一件事。我不確定這是否正是您想要的，但我們確實嘗試根據我們的標準應用我們認為的基於市場的承保。

Matt was mentioning earlier. We may be buying a deal at what we think is a -- we'll pick a number, a 4.5% cap, 5% cap, 5.5% cap. But when we bring it on our operating platform, we made use of 50, 60, 70 basis points from our own sort of operating platform. We would not underwrite the benefit of it being on our platform and have that reflected in the value of the asset. It would be based on sort of a stand-alone asset, with the sort of market-based underwriting, with our scrutiny of it, if that's where you're going.

馬特之前提到過。我們可能會以我們認為的價格買入一筆交易——我們會選擇一個數字，4.5% 的上限、5% 的上限、5.5% 的上限。但當我們將其引入我們的操作平台時，我們使用了我們自己的操作平台中的 50、60、70 個基點。我們不會承保它在我們平台上的利益，並將其反映在資產的價值上。它將基於某種獨立資產，採用基於市場的承銷，並進行我們的審查，如果這就是您的目標。

Yes, I appreciate that. That's great color. And then my second question, and apologies if you guys have already mentioned this. But how much of the improved earnings outlook is driven by developments versus operations?

是的，我很欣賞這一點。那顏色真棒。然後是我的第二個問題，如果你們已經提到了這一點，我深感抱歉。但獲利前景的改善有多少是由發展與營運所推動的？

I mean in terms of -- Connor, are you talking about the third quarter update relative to the midyear re-forecast? We have a page in our earnings release that will detail that for you, and it is on Page 5. And you can see there that, as you recall, our midyear re-forecast for core FFO for the year was $10.56. It's now $10.63, so a $0.07 increase. If you kind of go down the line there, you can see that $0.04 comes from improved same-store residential revenue, $0.01 from improved same-store residential OpEx, and then there are some puts and takes in terms of overhead and other that get you the additional $0.02 there.

我的意思是——康納，你是在談論相對於年中重新預測的第三季更新嗎？我們的收益報告中有一頁會為您詳細介紹這一點，它位於第 5 頁。您可以看到，正如您所記得的那樣，我們對今年核心 FFO 的年中重新預測為 10.56 美元。現在為 10.63 美元，增加了 0.07 美元。如果你往下看，你會發現 0.04 美元來自同店住宅收入的改善，0.01 美元來自同店住宅運營支出的改善，然後在管理費用和其他方面有一些讓你額外的 0.02 美元。

Our next question is from Brad Heffern with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Brad Heffern。

So you guys reported a negative 80 basis point new lease spread in October. I'm curious how that compares to normal for this time of year and just generally how things are progressing versus the normal pre-COVID seasonality.

所以你們報告 10 月新租賃利差為負 80 個基點。我很好奇這與一年中這個時候的正常情況相比如何，以及與新冠疫情爆發前的正常季節性相比，情況總體進展如何。

Yes, Brad, good question. I don't know if there's a normal per se for October. But I mean, generally, what I would describe for rent growth throughout the year is that it's a typical seasonal bell curve. We typically see rents run up from January to July or August, a 7% range or so an average year, and then they decelerate down by 4% or 5%. For this year, if you look at it sort of on average, point-to-point from January through year-end, you might see effective market rent growth in the 2.5% range, somewhere in that ballpark. And what I would say in general about what we've seen in the back half of this year is slightly less seasonality across most markets, with one exception being Northern California. That has been more seasonal than normal, relative to its history.

是的，布拉德，好問題。我不知道十月是否正常。但我的意思是，一般來說，我對全年租金成長的描述是，這是一條典型的季節性鐘形曲線。我們通常會看到租金從 1 月到 7 月或 8 月上漲，平均每年上漲 7% 左右，然後減速下降 4% 或 5%。今年，如果你從一月到年底的點對點平均來看，你可能會看到有效的市場租金成長在 2.5% 的範圍內，大約在這個範圍內。我想說的是，今年下半年我們所看到的情況是，大多數市場的季節性略有減弱，但北加州是個例外。相對於其歷史而言，這比正常情況更具季節性。

Okay. Got it. And then I think in the prepared remarks, you talked about hard costs and said that you're not really seeing cost savings in bids, but you expect to see them when they actually start going. Can you give us some color of where you think real hard costs in real life have actually gone?

好的。知道了。然後我認為在準備好的發言中，您談到了硬成本，並表示您並沒有真正看到投標中的成本節省，但您希望在投標真正開始時看到它們。您能否告訴我們您認為現實生活中真正的硬成本實際上去了哪裡？

Sure, Brad, it's Matt. I guess I'll speak to that a little bit. It is very regional. So where we've seen hard costs come down, say, compared to this time last year, we've seen it a little bit here in the Mid-Atlantic, maybe 5%. We've seen it in Boston, maybe to a little bit more significant degree, 5% to 10%.

當然，布拉德，是馬特。我想我會稍微談一下這一點。這是非常有地域性的。因此，在我們看到硬成本下降的地方，比如說，與去年同期相比，我們在大西洋中部地區看到了一點點下降，也許是 5%。我們在波士頓已經看到了這一點，也許程度更顯著，5% 到 10%。

And I think we are starting to see it in Northern California, where it's just been very, very soft for a while now. We have not yet seen it in Seattle. We haven't yet seen it -- maybe a little bit in Austin. But costs went up so much there that it's not, I would say, super meaningful yet.

我認為我們開始在北加州看到這種情況，那裡的天氣已經非常非常疲軟一段時間了。我們在西雅圖還沒有看到它。我們還沒有看到過——也許在奧斯汀見過一點。但那裡的成本上漲太多，我想說，這還不是非常有意義。

So we haven't necessarily seen it as much in the Sunbelt markets yet, Denver, Southeast Florida, but we think that it's coming there. And I would caveat that by saying for us and others, that's what I was saying before, the best data is where you have a deal that's ready to go and you really can hard bid it. And we don't have deals that were hard bidding in every region at this very moment.

因此，我們還沒有在陽光地帶市場、丹佛、佛羅裡達州東南部看到它那麼多，但我們認為它即將到來。我想提醒一下，對我們和其他人來說，這就是我之前所說的，最好的數據是你有一筆交易已經準備好並且你真的可以硬出價。目前我們還沒有在每個地區都進行激烈競標的交易。

So it's hard to tell until you're at that place. So we're getting kind of discrete data points. And where we have them, it's very helpful because we do think, again, kind of like with the rents, that gives us a little bit of an informational advantage to have a real sense for what's going on in real time. But it really does vary based on the regional dynamics within each region.

所以在你到達那個地方之前很難說清楚。所以我們得到了一些離散的數據點。在我們擁有它們的地方，這非常有幫助，因為我們確實認為，有點像租金，這給了我們一點資訊優勢，可以真正了解即時發生的事情。但它確實根據每個地區的區域動態而有所不同。

Our next question comes from Rich Anderson with Wedbush.

我們的下一個問題來自里奇·安德森和韋德·布希。

Just a question on expansion market and the process to getting in there. The word was used staying flexible about an hour ago. And I'm wondering, does the methodical way by which you're growing there offer you -- is that, what's the word, keeping you informed, I guess, and allowing you to pivot one direction or another?

只是關於擴展市場和進入該市場的過程的問題。大約一個小時前，這個詞被用來保持靈活。我想知道，你在那裡成長的有條不紊的方式是否為你提供了——我想，讓你了解情況，並允許你轉向一個或另一個方向？

Or if you had a chance to do it perfectly in one fell swoop, and everyone would stand up and applaud the transaction, if you could get there all at once tomorrow, would you do that? So how committed are you? And a related part of that question is how is the Sunbelt performing? Not so much relative to the urban coastal areas where everyone knows that. But how is it performing relative to your expectations? And is it getting -- is it even more interesting to you, even though it's underperforming relative to other areas of the country at the present time?

或者如果你有機會一舉完美地做到這一點，所有人都站起來為這筆交易鼓掌，如果你明天就能一次完成，你會這麼做嗎？那你有多投入呢？這個問題的相關部分是陽光地帶的表現如何？相對於眾所周知的城市沿海地區來說，情況就不一樣了。但它的表現與您的期望相比如何？儘管目前相對於該國其他地區表現不佳，但您是否對它更感興趣？

Rich, it's Ben. Let me make a couple of comments. First, in terms of our long-term framework of moving 25% of our portfolio to our expansion markets, that remains. Primary drivers of that: one, the recognition that our core customer, our knowledge-based worker, is in a more dispersed set of markets. And second, we can take what we do well, bring it to those markets in order to generate incremental value for shareholders.

里奇，是本。讓我發表幾點評論。首先，就我們將 25% 的投資組合轉移到擴張市場的長期框架而言，這一點仍然存在。其主要驅動因素：第一，認識到我們的核心客戶、我們的知識型員工位於更分散的市場。其次，我們可以將我們擅長的東西帶到這些市場，以便為股東創造增量價值。

In terms of pacing and timing, we are seeing softness. We're starting to see some dislocation in our expansion regions, and we see it as a potential opportunity. It's an opportunity to potentially be buying assets below replacement cost, which we have started to do, and in a development market that maybe has less players in it or players that don't have the same access to capital or the same cost of capital that we do to be able to selectively step into some attractive development opportunities there.

在節奏和時間安排方面，我們看到了疲軟。我們開始看到我們的擴張區域出現了一些混亂，我們認為這是一個潛在的機會。這是一個潛在的機會，可以以低於重置成本的價格購買資產，我們已經開始這麼做了，而且在一個開發市場中，參與者可能較少，或者參與者無法獲得相同的資本或相同的資本成本。我們確實能夠有選擇地抓住那裡一些有吸引力的發展機會。

There could be -- you fast forward, I don't think it's today, where we'd be looking to accelerate our movement given where our cost of capital is. But there could be an environment at some point over the next couple of years where something more substantial does present itself, and that could make -- that could, at that point, be the right risk-adjusted return decision. So it's on our radar. We're continuing to grow through our own development, through acquisitions and funding of third-party developers, and we'll keep our eyes out for larger opportunities as well.

可能會有——你快進，我認為考慮到我們的資本成本，我們不會在今天尋求加速我們的行動。但在未來幾年的某個時候，可能會出現一種環境，一些更實質的東西確實會出現，這可能會成為正確的風險調整回報決策。所以它在我們的雷達範圍內。我們將透過自身的發展、收購和第三方開發商的資助來繼續發展，我們也將密切關注更大的機會。

The follow-up question is to Kevin, perhaps. The 4.1x leverage, the target of 5 to 6, I mean, how do you ever get to that target anytime soon given the rate environment? And maybe one way is debt assumption, which was a part of a transaction you mentioned earlier. Is there any realistic lift to 4.1 in this environment? Or could there be transactions here and there where you add debt at reasonable costs through your transaction activities?

後續問題可能是問凱文的。 4.1 倍槓桿，5 至 6 倍的目標，我的意思是，考慮到利率環境，您如何很快達到該目標？也許一種方法是債務承擔，這是您之前提到的交易的一部分。在此環境中是否有任何實際提升到 4.1 的能力？或者是否可能存在透過交易活動以合理成本增加債務的交易？

Sure, Rich. Again, it's Kevin. So I appreciate the comment. It's an interesting question. We discuss and debate internally here. As you point out, we are 4.1x net debt-to-EBITDA levered, relative to a 5x to 6x target range, which is sort of a -- it's been a long-term target range that we've had for more than a decade, which speaks to sort of a normalized environment.

當然，里奇。又是凱文。所以我很欣賞你的評論。這是一個有趣的問題。我們在這裡進行內部討論和辯論。正如您所指出的，我們的淨債務與EBITDA 的槓桿率為4.1 倍，相對於5 倍到6 倍的目標範圍，這在某種程度上是一個長期目標範圍，我們已經設定了超過一年的時間。十年，這說明了一種正常化的環境。

If you look at the 4.1x, it's benefited from cash. If the cash weren't there, we'd be kind of in mid-4s, just as a further contextual comment. But more broadly, if you look back at the last 4 years or so, I don't think anyone would agree we've been in a normalized environment from the pandemic and its effects as it's moved through.

如果你看看 4.1x，你會發現它受益於現金。如果沒有現金，我們會處於 4 歲左右，就像進一步的上下文評論一樣。但更廣泛地說，如果你回顧過去四年左右的時間，我認為沒有人會同意我們已經處於大流行及其影響的正常化環境中。

And as you think about how things have played out this year, we are at that low 4x leverage level in part because of our capital decisions over the last few years. And this year's capital plan, where we've essentially -- will have paid off about $750 million of debt this year and brought in about $750 million of new and recycled equity from the equity forward and the net disposition activity, that's deleveraging and not necessarily reflective of a normal year. But -- so this wouldn't have been our capital plan normally, but it has proven to be the right capital plan for this year.

當你思考今年的情況時，我們的槓桿水平處於如此低的 4 倍，部分原因是我們過去幾年的資本決策。今年的資本計劃，我們基本上將在今年償還約7.5 億美元的債務，並從股權遠期和淨處置活動中引入約7.5 億美元的新股和回收股本，這是去槓桿化，但不一定是去槓桿化反映正常年。但是——所以這通常不是我們的資本計劃，但事實證明它是今年正確的資本計劃。

And what that does is it gives us financial flexibility to deal with an uncertain and volatile capital markets environment, liquidity and strength to deal with an environment where we may wish to be patient in terms of additional capital formation, given the recent rise in debt rates.

這樣做的作用是，它賦予我們財務靈活性，以應對不確定和波動的資本市場環境，提供流動性和實力，以應對我們可能希望在額外資本形成方面保持耐心的環境，因為最近債務率上升。

And I guess to the point that you're getting at, it also gives us leverage capacity to the extent we wish to seize upon certain investment opportunities, whether they are in our established markets or in our expansion markets that we view as attractive, where we can bring the strength of our balance sheet to bear and potentially rely on a greater than normal level of debt that may be attractive relative to those opportunities and lean into the balance sheet and generate some growth in that regard.

我想就您所理解的而言，它還為我們提供了槓桿能力，使我們能夠抓住某些投資機會，無論是在我們的成熟市場還是在我們認為有吸引力的擴張市場，其中我們可以發揮資產負債表的實力，並有可能依靠高於正常水平的債務，這相對於這些機會可能具有吸引力，並依靠資產負債表並在這方面產生一些增長。

So we are certainly willing and able to get to that 5 to 6x leverage in the right circumstances. I will note that there are some times when we've gotten there in less than desirable circumstances, such as 3 years ago in the pandemic, when -- we actually were 5.4x net debt to leverage EBITDA in Q3 of 2020, but that's sort of preparing the balance sheet for a downturn.

因此，我們當然願意並且能夠在適當的情況下達到 5 到 6 倍的槓桿率。我要指出的是，有時我們是在不太理想的情況下達到這一目標的，例如3 年前的大流行病，當時——我們在2020 年第三季的EBITDA 槓桿率實際上是5.4 倍的淨債務，但那是排序為經濟低迷做好資產負債表的準備。

So given where we are, it's a low leverage level, but we think it's appropriately so because it gives us strength to deal with potential challenges that could happen ahead as well as strength to deal with potential opportunities that we hope will be in front of us.

因此，考慮到我們所處的位置，槓桿水平較低，但我們認為這是適當的，因為它使我們有力量應對未來可能發生的潛在挑戰，也有力量應對我們希望擺在我們面前的潛在機會。

Our next question comes from Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Haendel St. Juste。

I appreciate the color earlier on the renewals for October, November, color on October new lease rates. But I didn't catch if you did provide them, your expectations for new lease rates into the year-end, so maybe some color there. And then what would that imply for a full year '24 earn-in?

我很欣賞早期關於 10 月、11 月續租的顏色，以及 10 月新租賃費率的顏色。但我不知道你是否提供了它們，你對年底新租賃費率的預期，所以也許有一些顏色。那麼這對 24 年全年的獲利意味著什麼呢？

Yes, it's Sean. Just -- I didn't provide specific insight into the expectation for new move-in lease rates in Q4. The one data point we did provide is that renewal offers went out in the 6% range. And similar to what we've been seeing in the last few months, I would expect them to settle sort of in, call it, 150 to 200 basis points dilution off of that, so kind of 4% range, maybe 4.25%.

是的，是肖恩。只是 - 我沒有提供第四季度新入住租賃費率預期的具體見解。我們提供的一個數據點是續訂優惠在 6% 的範圍內。與我們過去幾個月看到的情況類似，我預計他們會稀釋 150 到 200 個基點，所以範圍在 4% 左右，也許是 4.25%。

One thing to keep in mind that I mentioned earlier is the comps do get a little bit easier in November and December. And that's why in markets like the Mid-Atlantic, Denver and Seattle, you saw an uptick in rent change in October. So all else being equal, we expect sort of relatively, I'll call it, stable glide path through year-end as it relates to lease rates.

需要記住的一件事是，我之前提到過，十一月和十二月的比賽確實會變得更容易。這就是為什麼在大西洋中部、丹佛和西雅圖等市場，十月份的租金變化上升。因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，我們預計，我稱之為相對穩定的下滑路徑，因為它與租賃率有關。

The earn-in, we provided kind of a snapshot of the earn-in on the slides that we presented or posted last night at about 1.5%. My expectation based on what I know today is that may soften a little bit between now and year-end, but haven't necessarily put a number to it yet.

在獲利方面，我們在昨晚展示或發布的幻燈片上提供了盈利的快照，約 1.5%。根據我今天所了解的情況，我的預期是從現在到年底可能會有所緩和，但尚未確定具體數字。

Can you give us an update on the loss-to-lease in the portfolio and perhaps where it's highest and lowest?

您能否向我們介紹投資組合中租賃損失的最新情況以及最高和最低的情況？

Yes, that was posted on the slide as well. We recorded loss-to-lease roughly 2%, led by the East Coast markets, north of 2%, and then the West Coast and expansion regions trailing roughly 1.5 points at around 70 basis points in the expansion regions.

是的，這也張貼在幻燈片上。我們的租賃損失約為 2%，其中東海岸市場領先，在 2% 以上，然後是西海岸和擴張地區，落後約 1.5 個百分點，擴張地區約為 70 個基點。

Okay. And then last one, and apologies if you already touched on this. But are there any markets that you commented that you're seeing an acceleration in concessions or perhaps more aggressive lease-up for merchant developers?

好的。然後是最後一個，如果您已經觸及這一點，我們深表歉意。但您是否認為有哪些市場正在加速讓步，或者對商業開發商的租賃可能會更加積極？

Yes. The one market I mentioned a couple of times earlier that has been softening more recently is Northern California, most notably San Francisco, but to a lesser extent, San Jose as well.

是的。我之前幾次提到的最近疲軟的市場是北加州，尤其是舊金山，但聖荷西也有一定程度的下降。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Anthony Powell with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安東尼·鮑威爾。

I guess a question on the expansion region, loss-to-lease of 70 basis points, which is maybe better than you would think, given all the concern about supply growth in some of these markets. Is any one market driving that positive loss-to-lease? And do you think expansion markets could be a positive contributor to your same-store revenue growth next year?

我猜想是關於擴張區域的問題，租賃損失為 70 個基點，考慮到對其中一些市場供應增長的擔憂，這可能比您想像的要好。是否有某個市場推動了這種積極的租賃損失？您認為擴張市場會對您明年的同店營收成長產生正面貢獻嗎？

Yes, good question. I'd say what -- where it's coming from, for the most part, is a blend of Southeast Florida and what we've experienced a little bit that's going to be coming online in the Texas market. Where it's a more challenging environment is in Charlotte, which as you may have noted, the expansion region, rent change is negative. That is effective with the Charlotte market.

是的，好問題。我想說的是，它的大部分來源是佛羅裡達州東南部和我們所經歷過的一點點的混合，這些將在德克薩斯州市場上線。夏洛特的環境更具挑戰性，正如您可能已經注意到的那樣，夏洛特是擴張地區，租金變化為負。這對於夏洛特市場來說是有效的。

Three assets in the south end of Charlotte, there's a lot of supply coming online there. It's a great submarket. We love the submarket. When we bought the assets, we knew there would be a fair amount of supply in the first 2 or 3 years of ownership, which is what we're experiencing today. But we believe we acquired them at good values.

夏洛特南端的三個資產，那裡有大量供應。這是一個很棒的子市場。我們喜歡這個子市場。當我們購買這些資產時，我們知道在所有權的前兩三年內將會有相當數量的供應，這就是我們今天所經歷的。但我們相信我們以良好的價值收購了它們。

So it's probably a little too early to tell you what 2024 is going to look like there specifically. But anything that's coming through will probably be Texas and maybe a little bit in Southeast Florida and really not much, if anything. And we might be even be in a gain-to-lease situation in Charlotte.

因此，現在告訴您 2024 年具體情況可能還為時過早。但發生的任何事情都可能發生在德克薩斯州，也可能發生在佛羅裡達州東南部，而且即使有的話，也不會太多。我們甚至可能在夏洛特處於獲得租賃的境地。

Our next question comes from Joshua Dennerlein with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Joshua Dennerlein。

I'm back. Hopefully, you can hear me now. So just my question, I just was curious because it looks like you're underwriting the new starts at a mid-6s, but you're achieving, call it, mid-7s on your stuff in current lease-up. Just kind of what would get us up to that mid-7s going forward? Or is there just some kind of element of conservatism built in?

我回來了。希望你現在能聽到我的聲音。所以只是我的問題，我只是很好奇，因為看起來你正在以 6 年代中期的價格承保新的啟動，但你在當前租賃中的東西上實現了，稱之為，7 年代中期。是什麼讓我們繼續前進到 7 歲左右？還是只是有某種內在的保守主義元素？

Yes, Josh. It's Matt. So the way we underwrite is we don't trend anything. So the reason why the current lease-ups are exceeding pro forma by so much, by 90 basis points, is -- I mean basically, it's got to be one or two things. It's either rent growth between the time we started construction and the time we leased it up, which -- that is what it is in the current situation.

是的，喬許。是馬特。所以我們承保的方式是我們不關注任何趨勢。因此，目前的租賃量超出預估值如此之多（90 個基點）的原因是——我的意思基本上是，一定是一兩個原因。這要么是我們開始建造和出租之間的租金增長，這就是目前的情況。

Or in some cases, we were just too conservative in our initial underwriting. And even without market rent growth, the offering that we put out there got a bigger premium to the comps than what we had underwritten because we're pretty conservative in general.

或者在某些情況下，我們在最初的承保中過於保守。即使沒有市場租金成長，我們在那裡提供的產品也比我們承保的產品有更高的溢價，因為我們總體上相當保守。

So when you think about the deals we're starting now and you ask where are they going to stabilize 2 to 3 years from now when they lease up, the reason why they might outperform, we might get a little bit of hard cost savings, that's certainly possible based on what I was saying, although we tend to buy it out pretty quickly.

因此，當你考慮我們現在開始的交易時，你會問，從現在起2 到3 年後，當它們出租時，它們將穩定在哪裡，它們可能表現出色的原因，我們可能會節省一點硬成本，根據我所說的，這當然是可能的，儘管我們往往很快就會把它買下來。

Or it could be rent lift between now and then or it could be just kind of a more favorable response from the market. So on average, over the long run, we tend to outperform by more like 20 to 30 basis points. So that's pretty consistent, but it will vary based on where we are in the cycle.

或者它可能是從現在到那時的租金上漲，也可能只是市場的一種更有利的反應。因此，平均而言，從長遠來看，我們的表現往往會高出 20 到 30 個基點。所以這是相當一致的，但它會根據我們在週期中的位置而有所不同。

Okay. Interesting. And then I'm not sure if I missed it, but did you guys disclose October occupancy? I know you put out the rent growth.

好的。有趣的。然後我不確定我是否錯過了，但是你們透露了十月份的入住情況嗎？我知道你已經公佈了租金增長的情況。

I don't believe we did, but we're trending in the same general range in terms of economic occupancy kind of in that 95.7% range or so.

我不認為我們做到了，但就經濟入住率而言，我們的總體趨勢是在 95.7% 左右的範圍內。

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Ben Schall for closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我現在想將電話轉回給 Ben Schall 以徵求結束意見。

Thank you, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to connecting further with you in November. Talk soon.

謝謝大家，謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待十一月與您進一步聯繫。一會再聊。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，我們感謝您的參與。