Antero Resources Corporation (AR) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Antero Resources' Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference. (Operator Instructions) Please also note that this event is being recorded.

各位女士、先生，大家好，歡迎參加 Antero Resources 2018 年第三季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 另請注意，本活動將被錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Mike Kennedy. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想把會議交給 Mike Kennedy 先生。先生，請開始。

Thank you for joining us for Antero's third quarter 2018 investor conference call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operational highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A.

感謝各位參加 Antero 2018 年第三季投資人電話會議。我們將先花幾分鐘回顧財務與營運重點，接著開放問答。

I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteroresources.com, where we provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

我也想請各位前往我們網站首頁 www.anteroresources.com，我們提供了本次電話會議將使用並在今日通話中檢視的獨立財報簡報。

Before we start our comments, I'd like to first remind you that during this call, Antero management will make forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on our current judgments regarding factors that will impact the future performance of Antero and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Antero's control. Actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecast in such statements.

在開始發言之前，我想先提醒各位，本次通話中 Antero 管理團隊將作出前瞻性陳述。此類陳述係基於我們目前對將影響 Antero 未來表現之因素的判斷，並受多項風險與不確定性影響，其中許多超出 Antero 的控制範圍。實際結果與成果可能與此類陳述所表達、暗示或預測者存在重大差異。

Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations for the most comparable GAAP financial measures.

今日通話亦可能包含若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。請參閱我們的財報新聞稿，以取得關於此類指標的重要揭露資訊，包括與最可比 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表。

Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman and CEO; and Glen Warren, President and CFO.

今天與我一同參與通話的有：董事長兼執行長 Paul Rady，以及總裁兼財務長 Glen Warren。

I will now turn the call over to Paul.

現在我把通話交給 Paul。

Thank you, Mike, and thank you to everyone for listening to the call today. In my comments, I'm going to highlight our operational execution during the quarter and provide some detail on several of our recently completed liquids-rich pads. Glen will then highlight a number of significant third quarter financial achievements and provide an update on our recent board approved share repurchase plan, which we plan to begin to execute during the fourth quarter.

謝謝你，Mike，也感謝各位今天收聽本次電話會議。在我的發言中，我將重點說明本季的營運執行成果，並就我們近期完成的數個富含液體的井場（pad）提供一些細節。接著 Glen 將重點說明第三季多項重要的財務成果，並更新近期董事會核准的庫藏股回購計畫；我們計畫於第四季開始執行。

Let's begin by discussing the efficiency improvements we made during the quarter. Once again, Antero set new operational records during the third quarter. Looking at Slide #4 titled: Drilling and Completion Efficiencies, starting on the top left portion of the slide. In the Marcellus, we held our average drilling days flat at 12 days. And in the Utica, we held that flat at 20 days despite the continued trend of increasing our average lateral lengths in the Marcellus to 10,400 feet in the third quarter.

我們先從本季所做的效率提升談起。Antero 在第三季再次創下新的營運紀錄。請看第 4 張投影片，標題為：鑽井與完井效率，從投影片左上角開始。在 Marcellus，我們將平均鑽井天數維持在 12 天不變。在 Utica，我們也將其維持在 20 天不變，儘管我們仍持續提高 Marcellus 的平均水平段長度，第三季達到 10,400 英尺。

Completion stages per day in the Marcellus once again set a quarterly record, averaging 5.5 stages per day, including a company record of 6 stages per day in the month of September. This compares to the 4.6 stages per day average in 2017 and 5.0 stages per day average in the prior quarter. These improvements are ahead of our current budget, which assumes 4.5 completion stages per day for 2018. As a result of this improvement, we released 3 completion crews in September as wells are being completed at a quicker pace than the initial development plan.

Marcellus 的每日完井段數再次創下單季紀錄，平均每日 5.5 段，其中 9 月更創下公司紀錄，達到每日 6 段。相較之下，2017 年平均為每日 4.6 段，上一季平均為每日 5.0 段。這些改善優於我們目前的預算假設；該預算假設 2018 年每日完井 4.5 段。由於效率提升，井的完工速度快於最初開發計畫，因此我們在 9 月釋出（撤出）了 3 組完井隊。

During the third quarter, we turned to sales several outstanding Marcellus liquids-rich pads. One was an 8-well pad that was drilled with an average lateral length of 9,750 feet and produced a 60-day average rate of over 23 million cubic feet equivalent per well. Even more impressive was the liquid rate, which averaged 1,280 barrels per day of total liquids per well with 25% ethane recovery. In addition, a well in our highest Btu regime was drilled with a lateral length of nearly 12,000 feet and produced a 60-day rate of nearly 26 million cubic feet equivalent per well, including 1,709 barrels per day of total liquids with 25% ethane recovery.

第三季期間，我們有數個表現突出的 Marcellus 富含液體井場開始對外銷售。其中一個為 8 口井的井場，平均水平段長度 9,750 英尺，每口井 60 天平均產量超過每日 2,300 萬立方英尺當量。更令人印象深刻的是液體產量：在乙烷回收率 25% 的情況下，每口井總液體平均每日 1,280 桶。此外，我們在最高熱值（Btu）區域的一口井，水平段長度接近 12,000 英尺，60 天產量接近每口井每日 2,600 萬立方英尺當量，其中包含在乙烷回收率 25% 下每日 1,709 桶的總液體。

As depicted on Slide #5 titled: Largest Liquids-rich Drilling Inventory in Appalachia, Antero holds 40% of the core undrilled liquids-rich locations in Appalachia, over 2.5x more than our closest competitor. This extensive liquids inventory is a clear competitive advantage compared to our Appalachian peers.

如第 5 張投影片所示，標題為：阿帕拉契亞地區最大之富含液體鑽井庫存，Antero 擁有阿帕拉契亞地區 40% 的核心未鑽富含液體井位，較最接近的競爭對手多出逾 2.5 倍。相較於阿帕拉契亞同業，這龐大的液體庫存是明確的競爭優勢。

Despite reducing completion crews during the third quarter, we continued to outpace our drilling program. In order to maintain consistent development and capitalize on the attractive liquids pricing environment, we opted to pull forward one of our liquids-rich pads from early 2019 into late 2018. This 9-well pad is expected to have an average Btu of 1,260, which is among the highest Btu regimes in Antero's core Marcellus footprint. The average lateral length at this pad is 13,200 feet, and first production is now targeted for January of 2019. The decision to pull forward the spending on this pad increases our 2018 D&C budget a modest $50 million to $100 million, but also increases free cash flow momentum as we head into 2019 with strong liquids prices. This momentum is further enhanced by the expected start-up of Mariner East 2, which gives us access to premium-priced NGL export markets.

儘管第三季我們減少了完井隊數量，我們仍持續跑贏鑽井計畫進度。為了維持一致的開發節奏並把握具吸引力的液體定價環境，我們決定將原本 2019 年初的一個富含液體井場提前至 2018 年底。此 9 口井的井場預期平均熱值（Btu）為 1,260，屬於 Antero 核心 Marcellus 區域中熱值最高的區域之一。該井場平均水平段長度為 13,200 英尺，首批投產目前目標為 2019 年 1 月。將此井場支出提前的決策，使我們 2018 年鑽完井（D&C）預算小幅增加 5,000 萬至 1 億美元，但也在我們以強勁液體價格邁入 2019 年之際，提升自由現金流動能。隨著 Mariner East 2 預期啟用，讓我們得以進入溢價的 NGL 出口市場，這股動能將進一步增強。

As we detailed on the second quarter conference call, Antero experienced production curtailments during the latter part of the second quarter and into the third quarter due to oil hauling constraints. These constraints were fully alleviated in September as we were able to contract sufficient trucking capacity to meet not only oil production, but also to begin working down the oil inventory surplus on our pads. We estimate that the curtailment negatively impact production by an average 86 million cubic feet equivalent per day during the third quarter. With the trucking contracts now in place, we do not anticipate further trucking constraints and remain on track to achieve full year production guidance.

如我們在第二季電話會議中所述，Antero 於第二季後段至第三季期間，因原油外運（運輸）限制而出現產量限縮。這些限制已於 9 月完全解除，因為我們得以簽約取得足夠的卡車運能，不僅可滿足原油產量運輸，也能開始消化井場上的原油庫存過剩。我們估計，第三季限縮使產量平均每日減少 8,600 萬立方英尺當量。目前卡車運輸合約已到位，我們不預期會再出現運輸限制，並仍按計畫達成全年產量指引。

Now to briefly touch on our 2018 well completion plan. The quicker pace of the development plan resulted in 124 wells being turned to sales during the first 9 months of the year, including 73 wells during the third quarter. This activity level was a record for any quarter in Antero's history that led to a sharp increase in production volumes as we recently surpassed the 3 Bcf equivalent per day production milestone for the month of October.

接著簡要談談我們 2018 年的完井計畫。開發計畫進度加快，使得今年前 9 個月共有 124 口井開始對外銷售，其中第三季就有 73 口井。此活動水準創下 Antero 歷史上任何單季紀錄，並帶動產量大幅增加；我們在 10 月份最近已突破每日 30 億立方英尺當量（3 Bcf-e/d）的產量里程碑。

Further, the quicker development pace during the first 9 months of the year results in only 27 new wells placed to sales during the fourth quarter to complete the 2018 development plan. This more modest completion pace leads to a significant decrease in spending during the fourth quarter, which, when combined with sharply higher production volumes and attractive liquids pricing, is projected to drive considerable free cash flow during the fourth quarter.

此外，前 9 個月較快的開發節奏，使得第四季僅需再有 27 口新井開始對外銷售，即可完成 2018 年開發計畫。較為溫和的完井節奏將使第四季支出顯著下降；再加上產量大幅提高與具吸引力的液體定價，預期將在第四季帶來可觀的自由現金流。

Lastly, we are excited to have recently completed our Special Committee process, which results in a midstream simplification. As you are aware, on October 9, AMGP announced a definitive agreement to acquire AM in a stock and cash transaction that is expected to close in the first quarter of 2019.

最後，我們很高興近期已完成特別委員會程序，並促成中游架構簡化。如各位所知，10 月 9 日 AMGP 宣布已達成最終協議，將以股票加現金交易收購 AM，預期於 2019 年第一季完成交割。

Slide #6 titled: Summary Simplification Transaction Benefits, highlights the numerous merits of the transaction. The transaction truly is a win-win-win across the Antero family and has been very well received by both upstream and midstream shareholders that we have spoken with.

第 6 張投影片，標題為：簡化交易效益摘要，重點說明了此交易的多項優點。這筆交易確實為 Antero 家族帶來三贏局面，且我們所接觸的上游與中游股東皆給予非常正面的回饋。

The transaction simplifies the midstream structure and aligns all equity holders as shown on Slide #7 titled: Antero Simplified Pro Forma Structure. New AM will be structured as a C-corp without IDRs, which we believe is the increasingly preferred structure by midstream investors. And importantly, for AR shareholders, the transaction results in better alignment between management and shareholders. In addition, AR will receive a minimum of $300 million of proceeds that, when combined with AR's targeted free cash flow over the next 12 to 18 months, is expected to fully fund AR's $600 million share repurchase program.

本次交易簡化了中游架構，並使所有股權持有人達成一致，如第 #7 張投影片所示，標題為：Antero 簡化後的備考架構。新的 AM 將以不含 IDR 的 C 型公司（C-corp）架構設立，我們認為這正日益成為中游投資人偏好的架構。更重要的是，對 AR 股東而言，本次交易使管理層與股東之間的利益一致性更佳。此外，AR 將獲得至少 3 億美元的交易所得，若再加上 AR 未來 12 至 18 個月的目標自由現金流，預期可完全支應 AR 的 6 億美元庫藏股回購計畫。

As the longest-tenured management team among our Appalachian peers with significant share ownership, investors can expect a stable and consistent approach in our development plan. We are committed to unlocking per share value through our integrated strategy that delivers attractive returns to our peer-leading liquids-rich asset base.

作為阿帕拉契亞同業中任期最久且持股比例可觀的管理團隊，投資人可期待我們在開發計畫上採取穩健且一致的方法。我們致力於透過整合式策略釋放每股價值，該策略可為我們同業領先、富含液體的資產基礎帶來具吸引力的報酬。

Entering the fourth quarter of 2018, we expect to begin generating considerable free cash flow, a majority of which will be returned to shareholders during the period. At today's share price, buying back shares is an attractive use of capital as it is highly accretive to NAV.

進入 2018 年第四季，我們預期將開始產生可觀的自由現金流，其中大部分將在此期間回饋給股東。以目前股價而言，回購股票是具吸引力的資金運用方式，因其對淨資產價值（NAV）具有高度增益效果。

With that, I will turn it over to Glen for his comments.

接下來，我把時間交給 Glen 發表他的看法。

Thank you, Paul. Good morning, everyone. Let me begin with our key financial achievements from the quarter. I'll then shift focus to the fourth quarter, which is a key inflection point for Antero as we begin generating sustained free cash flow and returning a significant portion of that capital to shareholders through our recently announced share repurchase program. I'll also finish by touching on 2019 briefly.

謝謝你，Paul。各位早安。我先從本季的主要財務成果談起。接著我會把重點轉到第四季，這是 Antero 的關鍵轉折點，因為我們將開始持續產生自由現金流，並透過近期宣布的股票回購計畫，把相當一部分資金回饋給股東。最後我也會簡要提及 2019 年。

During the third quarter, net production averaged a record 2.718 Bcfe per day, delivering 17% year-over-year growth and 8% sequential growth, including a record 129,000 barrels a day of liquids. Liquids production increased 14% sequentially, reflecting a continued emphasis on developing our liquids-rich acreage. Liquids production included 10,632 barrels a day of oil, 79,819 barrels a day of C3+ NGLs and 38,901 barrels a day of ethane, all new records for Antero.

第三季期間，淨產量平均達到創紀錄的每日 2.718 Bcfe，年增 17%、季增 8%，其中液體產量亦創新高，達每日 129,000 桶。液體產量季增 14%，反映我們持續著重開發富含液體的租賃區。液體產量包括每日 10,632 桶原油、每日 79,819 桶 C3+ NGL（天然氣液，丙烷及更重組分）以及每日 38,901 桶乙烷，皆為 Antero 的新紀錄。

During the third quarter, Antero's realized natural gas price was $2.95 per Mcf before hedges, representing a $0.05 per Mcf premium to the average NYMEX Henry Hub price. This marks the 17th consecutive quarter that we delivered pre-hedged natural gas realizations at a premium to the Henry Hub per MMBtu price.

第三季期間，Antero 的天然氣實現價格（未計避險）為每 Mcf 2.95 美元，較 NYMEX Henry Hub 平均價格溢價每 Mcf 0.05 美元。這是我們連續第 17 個季度在避險前的天然氣實現價格相較 Henry Hub 每 MMBtu 價格維持溢價。

Moving on to liquids pricing during the quarter, we realized an unhedged C3+ NGL price, that's propane and heavier, of $38.41 per barrel, representing a 33% increase from the prior year quarter. We expect the strength in NGL prices to continue as we currently forecast ME2 to be operational during the fourth quarter of 2018, which will give us access to the premium-priced international markets. As a reminder, every $5 per barrel increase in NGL prices results in an incremental $170 million in revenue to Antero on an annualized basis.

接著談本季液體定價：我們的未避險 C3+ NGL（即丙烷及更重組分）實現價格為每桶 38.41 美元，較去年同期增加 33%。我們預期 NGL 價格的強勢將延續，因為我們目前預測 ME2 將於 2018 年第四季投入營運，這將使我們得以進入溢價的國際市場。提醒各位，NGL 價格每桶上升 5 美元，按年化計算將為 Antero 帶來約 1.7 億美元的增量營收。

As shown on Slide #8, our liquids production growth profile, when combined with pricing improvement, drives compounding exposure to improving NGL prices. The outlook for ethane pricing also looks positive with the recent increase in Mont Belvieu prices. If ethane remains economically attractive with the addition of a new 20,000 barrel a day de-eth at Sherwood in the fourth quarter, we have upside to recover volumes of up to an average of 45,000 to 50,000 barrels a day during the fourth quarter, with further upside to 55,000 to 60,000 barrels a day in 2019. To quantify the pricing impact, each $0.10 increase per gallon in Mont Belvieu ethane pricing results in approximately $40 million in incremental revenue to Antero on an annualized basis.

如第 #8 張投影片所示，我們的液體產量成長曲線，結合價格改善，將帶來對 NGL 價格上行的複利式曝險。隨著近期 Mont Belvieu 價格上升，乙烷定價展望亦偏正向。若在第四季 Sherwood 新增每日 20,000 桶的去乙烷（de-eth）能力後，乙烷仍具經濟性，我們在第四季有上行空間，可回收的產量平均可達每日 45,000 至 50,000 桶；2019 年進一步上行可達每日 55,000 至 60,000 桶。為量化價格影響，Mont Belvieu 乙烷價格每加侖上升 0.10 美元，按年化計算將為 Antero 帶來約 4,000 萬美元的增量營收。

As you can see on Slide #9 titled: A Top U.S. Producer, Antero is the top NGL producer in the U.S. based on full year 2018 consensus estimates and also third quarter numbers, so far, even when compared to the large cap E&Ps and integrated oil companies.

如第 #9 張投影片所示，標題為：美國頂尖生產商。依據 2018 全年市場一致預估以及目前第三季數據，Antero 為美國最大的 NGL 生產商；即使與大型市值的 E&P 公司及整合型石油公司相比亦然。

Now I'd like to briefly touch on our financial highlights for the quarter. Antero led its peer group once again in realized pricing as you can see on Slide #10 titled: The Leader in All-In Realized Pricing in Appalachia. Antero generated stand-alone adjusted EBITDAX of $419 million, a 48% increase over the year-ago period. Stand-alone adjusted operating cash flow was $362 million, 63% higher than the year-ago period, driven primarily by higher natural gas and liquids production and favorable liquids prices.

接下來我簡要說明本季的財務重點。如第 #10 張投影片所示，標題為：阿帕拉契亞全口徑實現價格領導者，Antero 再次在實現價格方面領先同業。Antero 產生的獨立口徑調整後 EBITDAX 為 4.19 億美元，較去年同期增加 48%。獨立口徑調整後營運現金流為 3.62 億美元，較去年同期高出 63%，主要受惠於天然氣與液體產量增加以及有利的液體價格。

Slide #11 highlights our historical consistency in being a peer leader when comparing stand-alone EBITDAX margin to our Appalachian peer group. Our strategy, integrated strategy, has positioned Antero as a leader in EBITDAX margin for almost 6 years. Our stand-alone adjusted EBITDAX margin was $1.68 per Mcfe, a 26% increase from the prior year period. This outperformance and consistency is a direct result of AR's industry-leading NGL exposure firm transportation portfolio to attractive markets, hedged portfolio and integrated midstream business.

第 #11 張投影片凸顯我們在比較獨立口徑 EBITDAX 利潤率與阿帕拉契亞同業時，長期維持同業領先的一貫性。我們的整合式策略使 Antero 在近 6 年來幾乎一直是 EBITDAX 利潤率的領導者。我們的獨立口徑調整後 EBITDAX 利潤率為每 Mcfe 1.68 美元，較去年同期增加 26%。此一優異表現與一致性，直接來自 AR 在 NGL 曝險方面的產業領先地位、通往具吸引力市場的確定性運輸（firm transportation）組合、避險組合，以及整合的中游業務。

As a reminder, we are the only U.S. producer that is 100% hedged on expected natural gas production for the remainder of 2018 and all of 2019, and we're hedged at $3.50 per MMBtu.

提醒各位，我們是唯一一家美國生產商，對 2018 年剩餘期間及 2019 年全年的預期天然氣產量做到 100% 避險，且避險價格為每 MMBtu 3.50 美元。

As we have spoken about since January's Analyst Day, the fourth quarter of 2018 is expected to be an important inflection point as we expect to begin generating free cash flow on a sustained basis as illustrated on Slide #12.

如同我們自 1 月分析師日以來所提，2018 年第四季預期將是重要的轉折點；如第 #12 張投影片所示，我們預期將開始以可持續的方式產生自由現金流。

As we outlined in our release last evening, we expect to generate $425 million to $475 million of stand-alone adjusted operating cash flow during the fourth quarter. We also expect to reduce consolidated drilling and completing capital spend for the fourth quarter to $200 million to $250 million, which equates to approximately $240 million to $300 million of stand-alone D&C capital spend based on the historical relationship between consolidated and stand-alone D&C spending. When you combine the expected cash flow with the expected reduction in stand-alone D&C capital spend, 1/4 of the $25 million annual land maintenance capital spend guidance for 2018, we expect to generate free cash flow in the $150 million to $200 million range based on our current commodity prices during the fourth quarter of this year.

如我們昨晚發布的公告所述，我們預期第四季將產生 4.25 億至 4.75 億美元的獨立口徑調整後營運現金流。我們也預期將第四季合併口徑的鑽井與完井資本支出降至 2 億至 2.5 億美元；依據合併與獨立口徑 D&C 支出之歷史關係，這相當於約 2.4 億至 3 億美元的獨立口徑 D&C 資本支出。將預期現金流與預期的獨立口徑 D&C 資本支出下降、以及 2018 年每年 2,500 萬美元土地維護資本支出指引的四分之一合併考量，在今年第四季以目前商品價格計算，我們預期可產生約 1.5 億至 2 億美元的自由現金流。

We like our position as the largest NGL producer in the U.S. as it enables us to take advantage of attractive liquids pricing in the market today. On a stand-alone basis, we anticipate generating a free cash flow yield of approximately 8% in 2019, which, as you can see on Slide #13, would place us at the top among the independent E&Ps.

我們樂見自己作為美國最大 NGL 生產商的地位，因為這使我們能把握當前市場上具吸引力的液體定價。以獨立口徑計算，我們預期 2019 年可產生約 8% 的自由現金流殖利率；如第 #13 張投影片所示，這將使我們在獨立 E&P 公司中名列前茅。

Lastly, our board recently approved a $600 million share repurchase. And given our discounted valuation on enterprise value to EBITDA and to NAV, we believe this is an extremely attractive use of capital. This share repurchase plan if fully utilized at today's prices results in the repurchase of over 12% of shares outstanding. We expect to be in the market buying shares during the fourth quarter of 2018.

最後，我們的董事會近期核准了 6 億美元的股票回購。鑑於我們在企業價值對 EBITDA 以及對 NAV 的估值偏低，我們認為這是極具吸引力的資金運用方式。若此回購計畫在目前價格下全數執行，將回購超過 12% 的流通在外股數。我們預期將於 2018 年第四季進場買回股票。

Looking ahead to 2019, based on our previously stated stand-alone D&C capital targets of $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion and assuming current strip prices, we expect at least $400 million in free cash flow next year.

展望2019年，基於我們先前所述獨立的 D&C 資本目標為15億至16億美元，並假設目前的期貨帶（strip）價格水準，我們預期明年至少可產生4億美元的自由現金流。

With our share repurchase program in place, we plan to return the majority of our expected free cash flow to our shareholders during the period while exiting 2019 with leverage under 2x. That's 2.0x. In addition to this free cash flow, we also expect a minimum of $300 million of proceeds from the simplification transaction expected to close in the first quarter of 2019 and $125 million in early 2020 expected from the first tranche of the water earnout payments associated with the water drop-down into Antero Midstream. We like where we are today with our ability to take meaningful advantage of what we view as a disconnected equity value.

在我們已啟動股票回購計畫的情況下，我們計畫在此期間將預期自由現金流的大部分回饋給股東，同時在2019年底將槓桿比率降至2倍以下。也就是2.0倍。除了這些自由現金流之外，我們也預期可自簡化交易中取得至少3億美元的款項收入，該交易預計於2019年第一季完成；此外，與將水務資產下放（drop-down）至 Antero Midstream 相關的水務或有對價（earnout）付款第一期款，預計於2020年初帶來1.25億美元。我們喜歡目前所處的位置，因為我們有能力在我們認為股權價值脫節的情況下，實質地把握機會。

With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

接下來，我將把電話會議交給接線員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Subash Chandra of Guggenheim.

(接線員指示) 我們的第一個問題來自 Guggenheim 的 Subash Chandra。

As you look at the macro landscape for liquids in Appalachia, has sort of your competitive situation there, has it changed at all as we see the shift from all the Appalachian players to liquids? When do you think the takeaway constraints are an issue again? And how do you navigate that over your 3-, 4-year outlook?

當你們觀察阿帕拉契亞地區液體（liquids）的總體環境時，你們在那裡的競爭態勢是否有任何改變？因為我們看到阿帕拉契亞的業者都在轉向液體。你們認為外運（takeaway）受限何時會再次成為問題？在你們3到4年的展望中，將如何因應？

Yes. We continue, Subash, to add liquids-rich acreage. And so we still have the dominant position. Others are drilling theirs up, but we've stayed pretty steady on our inventory. So I think we're just as strong, if not stronger, relative to our peers in the liquids-rich part. We do have some impediments right now on infrastructure. They're pretty short term, whether it's Mariner East or the Hopedale #4 fractionator. We expect both of those to be open for business in the next month or 2 or 3. After that, it's pretty smooth sailing for quite a while, don't see much in the way of logjams over the next several years. Mariner East is built so that it can expand and carry a lot more export capacity. Both the purity lines and the Y-grade lines that go to the fractionators, both at Houston and Hopedale, are in the process of being expanded right now. And so that will give us smooth sailing for quite a while. And then we're just having our next de-ethanizer come on at Sherwood. Sherwood 10 just came on yesterday and the de-eth will be there in a couple of weeks. And then another one in the first quarter of next year. So if you look at all those elements, whether it's processing, de-ethanization, the purity and Y-grade or the fractionators or Mariner East, I think those all get relatively solved over the next 6 months. So don't really see getting jammed up again for quite a long time.

是的。Subash，我們持續增加富含液體的租賃面積（liquids-rich acreage）。因此我們仍然擁有主導地位。其他人正在把他們的庫存鑽完，但我們的庫存一直維持相當穩定。所以我認為，相較同業，我們在富含液體的區域同樣強勢，甚至更強。目前在基礎設施方面確實有一些阻礙。這些多半是相當短期的，不論是 Mariner East 或 Hopedale #4 分餾器（fractionator）。我們預期這兩者都會在接下來1到2或3個月內開始營運。之後將會相當順暢，在未來幾年不太會看到嚴重的壅塞。Mariner East 的建置方式使其可以擴充，並承載更多出口能力。目前通往分餾設施（休士頓與 Hopedale）的純度管線（purity lines）與 Y-grade 管線都正在擴建中。因此這將讓我們在相當長一段時間內運行順暢。另外，我們下一座脫乙烷裝置（de-ethanizer）也將在 Sherwood 上線。Sherwood 10 昨天才剛投產，而脫乙烷裝置將在幾週內到位。接著明年第一季還會再有一座。所以若把這些要素都納入考量，不論是處理（processing）、脫乙烷（de-ethanization）、純度與 Y-grade、分餾器或 Mariner East，我認為在接下來6個月內都會相對獲得解決。因此不太會看到在相當長一段時間內再次卡住。

Got it. Okay. And I understand if you don't want to comment on a third-party project, but if you could on sort of the Kinder Morgan project that got canceled earlier this week, I think, or last week, sort of. Was that a reflection that there was, this capacity you're talking about, there was just enough of it or that really the route that producers want to take is the export route versus the Gulf Coast route on the future takeaway?

了解。好的。我理解你們可能不想評論第三方專案，但若可以的話，想請教本週稍早（或上週）被取消的 Kinder Morgan 專案。這是否反映了你們所提到的運能其實已經足夠，或是生產商在未來外運上更偏好走出口路線而非墨西哥灣沿岸路線？

The export route does get one, a premium to Belvieu, but I think the producers look and see that Mariner East is expandable several times, can really be bulked up. So it's favorable to Belvieu and competitive and it's there. So I think producers are happy to align behind that one. And so the speculation is that Kinder on the one that they -- they're going back to maybe using it as a line reversal for gas instead of liquids, as you know.

出口路線確實能相對 Belvieu 取得溢價，但我認為生產商看到 Mariner East 可以多次擴充，確實能大幅提升運能。因此它相對 Belvieu 具有優勢、也具競爭力，而且已經在那裡。所以我認為生產商樂於在那條管線後面結盟。因此外界推測 Kinder 的那條管線——如你所知——他們可能會回頭把它改作天然氣的反向輸送（line reversal），而不是用於液體。

Got you. Okay. And if I could just ask one final one. On delevering, I mean, do you feel like any of the maturities need to be paid off or that the path towards sub-2x is all we need to know on the delevering?

明白。好的。如果可以我再問最後一個。關於去槓桿，我的意思是，你們是否覺得有任何到期債務需要償還，或是把槓桿降到2倍以下的路徑就是我們需要了解的全部去槓桿計畫？

Yes. I mean, we assume that the maturities naturally roll off just based on our cash flow forecast using strip commodity pricing. So not a big need to refi those notes. It's possible that it gets more favorable over time, particularly if we move to investment-grade over the next year or so. But right now we just assume the maturities roll off and we put the payoff on to our credit facility, which is quite sizable. So that's the plan right now for AR.

是的。我的意思是，我們假設在使用期貨帶商品價格（strip commodity pricing）的現金流預測下，這些到期債務會自然到期退出。因此不太需要為那些票據再融資（refi）。隨著時間推移，條件可能會更有利，特別是如果我們在未來一年左右提升至投資級。但目前我們只是假設到期債務自然到期，並把償付安排在我們相當可觀的循環信貸額度（credit facility）上。這就是目前 AR 的計畫。

The next question is from Jane Trotsenko of Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Jane Trotsenko。

You have been guiding to 60% of WTI for C3+ price realizations for 2018 and 72% of WTI for 2019 through 2021. So given the strong backwardation in both WTI and the NGL forward curve, are you still expecting to achieve 72% of WTI for C3+ in the coming years?

你們指引2018年 C3+ 的實現價格（price realizations）為 WTI 的60%，而2019至2021年為 WTI 的72%。因此，考量 WTI 與 NGL 遠期曲線都呈現強烈逆價差（backwardation），你們仍預期未來幾年 C3+ 能達到 WTI 的72%嗎？

Yes. Jane, this is Mike. Yes, we do expect the same percentages that we've guided to. If you look at the actual byproduct, our barrel, it comes out to those percentages, assuming ME2 is on in the fourth quarter of '18 and obviously on for the time period through 2022.

是的。Jane，我是 Mike。是的，我們確實預期能達到我們所指引的相同百分比。如果你看實際的副產品組合、也就是我們每桶的組成，在假設 ME2 於2018年第四季上線，且顯然在整個期間一路運行至2022年的情況下，結果就會落在那些百分比。

Okay. So it's Mariner East 2 which will be like the key driver for your confidence in those?

好的。所以 Mariner East 2 會是你們對此有信心的關鍵驅動因素？

Correct. Yes. When you look at the international pricing, that really gives you an uplift compared to Mont Belvieu pricing. So that really drives that realization increasing over that time period.

正確。是的。當你看國際定價時，相較於 Mont Belvieu 定價，確實能帶來上行（uplift）。因此這會推動在那段期間的實現價格提高。

Okay. Got it. And then on Mariner East 2 pipeline, there were some reports about possible delay. Could you please update us on the status of the pipeline and if it's going to be brought online in phases?

好的。了解。另外，關於 Mariner East 2 管線，有一些報導提到可能延遲。請你們更新一下管線的狀態，以及是否會分階段投產？

Well, as Subash just said, there's always a danger of commenting on third-party projects. But our standing is that they're moving along, that it will be brought on in phases with the smaller amounts with their using some of the repurposed bypasses early on that's going to allow production on the order of 150,000 barrels a day. And then once they get it worked out within the next year, then it can expand quite a bit more. So I think 2 phases. The early one is in the next few months. And then the next one after that is within the next year. But again, of course, that's our view from afar. I couldn't say we know more than the general public.

嗯，正如 Subash 剛才所說，評論第三方專案總是有風險。但我們的立場是，他們正在推進，且會分階段投產；初期會利用部分改造後的旁通（repurposed bypasses）先行上線，以較小的量開始，這將允許約每日15萬桶的產量規模。然後一旦他們在未來一年內把問題處理好，就能再大幅擴充。所以我認為是兩個階段。第一個早期階段在接下來幾個月內。第二個階段則在那之後的一年內。但再次強調，這當然是我們從遠處的觀察。我不能說我們知道的比一般大眾更多。

Okay. Okay. Maybe related to this, how should we think about ramp-up in Antero's, let's say, NGL flows on Mariner East 2? Is it going to be like gradual ramp-up in pipeline flows on that pipeline?

好的。好的。也許與此相關，我們應該如何看待 Antero 在 Mariner East 2 上的 NGL 流量爬坡（ramp-up）？那條管線的流量會是逐步爬坡嗎？

I think we assume by January 1, in January 2019, we'll be flowing our 50,000 barrels a day of propane and butane just per our MVC. And then what Energy Transfer has stated is that they plan to have the entire pipeline on by third quarter of 2019. So those are the assumptions that we're using right now, that by 2019 we're able to flow more than 50,000 barrels a day, the MVC, by the third quarter of 2019 and essentially flow all of our liquids to the extent we want to on ME2, all of our propane, butane, that is.

我想我們假設到1月1日，也就是2019年1月，我們將依照我們的MVC開始輸送每日50,000桶的丙烷與丁烷。而Energy Transfer所表示的是，他們計畫在2019年第三季前讓整條管線全面投運。所以這些就是我們目前採用的假設：到2019年，我們能夠在2019年第三季前輸送超過每日50,000桶（即MVC），並且基本上在ME2上把我們所有的液體在我們希望的範圍內全部輸送出去，也就是我們所有的丙烷、丁烷等。

The next question is from Holly Stewart of Scotia Howard Weil.

下一個問題來自Scotia Howard Weil的Holly Stewart。

Maybe just the first one on sort of CapEx trends and all the efficiencies that you guys are seeing. Can you update us on that D&C capital transparency slide? I'm just trying to think through the average stages per day has gone down. So I guess the question, is, is there any changes at this point to highlight on well costs just given those trends?

也許先問第一個，關於資本支出（CapEx）趨勢以及你們看到的各項效率提升。你們能更新一下那張D&C資本透明度的投影片嗎？我只是想梳理一下，平均每日壓裂段數已經下降了。所以我的問題是，基於這些趨勢，在井成本方面目前是否有任何需要特別強調的變化？

No. Holly, the $860,000 per thousand feet still holds. We're just obviously doing the stages much quicker than we thought so that the capital has actually been accelerated into earlier periods, but the same well costs.

沒有。Holly，每千英尺86萬美元的數字仍然成立。我們只是很明顯地比原先預期更快完成各段作業，因此資本實際上被加速到更早的期間投入，但單井成本不變。

Okay. And I'm assuming that just the shift that you guys have outlined here today, that TIL schedule still stays?

好的。那我假設你們今天在這裡概述的這個調整，TIL時程仍然維持不變？

It does. Yes. The shift of capital will result in wells coming on quicker in '19. That McKim Pad, those 9 wells come on in January of '19 instead of more kind of midyear-ish '19. So that's the change in the well schedule, but the actual TILs for 2018 are unchanged.

是的。沒錯。資本的移轉將使得2019年的井更快投產。McKim Pad那9口井會在2019年1月投產，而不是更接近2019年年中左右。所以井的排程有這個變化，但2018年的實際TIL不變。

Got it. Okay. And then just there's been several pipeline projects where you guys have some capacity that's come on here as of late. So can you just update us on what you're currently utilizing and then what you are still anticipating to come on over the next couple of months?

了解。好的。另外，最近有好幾個管線專案，你們有一些運輸能力已經陸續上線。你能更新一下你們目前的使用情況，以及未來幾個月仍預期會上線的部分嗎？

Yes. Let me go through the list, Holly. So new things that have come on in recent times. A pipe, Columbia pipe called WB. And westbound WB has come on now for their full 800 million a day. So we're utilizing that. And that ties to our Tennessee that was upgraded from 590 million to 790 million a day. So the 800 million more or less ties with the 790 million that goes to the Gulf. So 2 projects there that have just come on. We've upgraded our TCO T system to another 100 million a day. We're using all of that. That goes to the TCO pool. We expect WB eastbound, which goes over to the Cove Point area. We have 330 million a day on that. And that is going to be online as soon as November 15, so just a couple of weeks away. And then one that we're certainly looking forward to that should be within the next month is Rover Phase 2. It's 800 million a day that comes down from Clarington area down to Sherwood. So what that will do is allow us -- we're not shut-in or anything -- but it will allow us to redirect our gas to Chicago and Gulf markets on Rover. That capacity now or those gas volumes are going to Tetco M2 and Dom South. So there'll be an upgrade there on netbacks. And then the next one that is yet to come online is called Mountaineer. It's a TCO TransCanada project. And we have 700 million a day on that. And that's due to come on in January of this year. So I think that's on track, not sure I've missed any, but those are the big ones. And so it allows us both to keep growing and also to redirect our volumes to the better markets.

可以。Holly，我把清單過一遍。最近新上線的項目：一條管線，Columbia的管線叫WB。WB的西向（westbound）現在已全量上線，達到每日8億立方英尺。所以我們正在使用它。它與我們的Tennessee管線相連，而該管線已從每日5.9億立方英尺升級到每日7.9億立方英尺。因此，這每日8億立方英尺大致對應到通往墨西哥灣的每日7.9億立方英尺。所以這裡有兩個剛上線的專案。我們也把TCO的T系統再升級到每日增加1億立方英尺。我們把這些容量全部用滿。它通往TCO pool。我們預期WB的東向（eastbound），也就是通往Cove Point區域的那段。我們在那上面有每日3.3億立方英尺的容量。它最快在11月15日就會上線，也就是再過幾週。接著，我們非常期待、應該在下個月內上線的是Rover第二期（Phase 2）。它是每日8億立方英尺，從Clarington區域一路到Sherwood。這將使我們——我們並沒有關井或任何狀況——但它會讓我們能在Rover上把天然氣重新導向芝加哥與墨西哥灣市場。目前這些容量或氣量是走Tetco M2與Dom South。因此在回收價（netbacks）上會有提升。再下一個尚未上線的叫Mountaineer。它是TCO/TransCanada的專案。我們在那上面有每日7億立方英尺的容量。預計在今年1月上線。所以我想這進度是按計畫進行的，不確定我是否漏了什麼，但這些是主要的。因此它讓我們既能持續成長，也能把氣量重新導向更好的市場。

Yes. No, that's perfect. And then maybe just another, or a bigger-picture question for you. I know you've been focused here as of late on the simplification, but I'm sure you're watching the markets. And we've had a lot of M&A deals happen, gosh, in the last week or so on the oil side. So just kind of curious as to what you're seeing right now in the basin?

是的。不，這很完美。再問一個，或是更宏觀的問題。我知道你們最近一直專注在簡化（simplification），但我相信你們也在關注市場。而且在石油端，天啊，過去一週左右發生了很多併購（M&A）交易。所以我只是好奇，你們現在在這個盆地看到的是什麼情況？

Yes, Holly, in the basin, we have seen several deals over the past year. They tended to be smaller deals following the EQT-Rice deal, which was obviously a large deal. But you have had a number of consolidations occurring kind of around the basin, 4 or 5 of them. Wouldn't be surprised to see more of that happen here over the next year. That's certainly the trend, and we agree with that. It makes sense in a lot of cases. So I think you'll see some in Appalachia.

是的，Holly，在這個盆地，我們在過去一年看到幾筆交易。在EQT-Rice交易之後（那顯然是一筆大型交易），後續的交易多半偏小。但你確實看到盆地周邊發生了一些整併，大概有4到5起。未來一年若看到更多這類情況，我也不會意外。這確實是趨勢，我們也認同。在很多情況下這是合理的。所以我想你會在阿帕拉契亞看到一些。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Kevin MacCurdy of Heikkinen Energy Advisors.

（接線員指示）下一個問題來自Heikkinen Energy Advisors的Kevin MacCurdy。

Looking at Slide 13, it seems to imply around $400 million of free cash flow to Antero. Just curious what CapEx number that's based on? And does that include the fully burdened water costs?

看第13頁投影片，似乎暗示Antero大約有4億美元的自由現金流。我想了解這是基於哪個CapEx數字？另外，這是否包含完全負擔後的水處理成本（fully burdened water costs）？

Yes, it does. The stand-alone CapEx number is kind of $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion. And the consolidated number's $1.3 billion, the difference being the water.

是的，包含。單體（stand-alone）的CapEx大約是15億到16億美元。合併口徑（consolidated）的數字是13億美元，差異就是水務。

Great. That's certainly compelling free cash flow. And to follow up on an earlier question. Thanks for the clarity on the C3+ prices. Just to get a little bit more color, are you saying that Antero's realizations will be better than Mont Belvieu forward prices?

很好。那確實是很有吸引力的自由現金流。再追問先前的一個問題。謝謝你對C3+價格的說明。我想再多了解一點，你是說Antero的實現價格（realizations）會優於Mont Belvieu的遠期價格嗎？

Yes. I mean, the calculation is not based on Mont Belvieu, it's based on Northwest Europe mainly and where the actual volumes would go. So those are ahead of Mont Belvieu pricing.

是的。我的意思是，這個計算不是以Mont Belvieu為基礎，而主要是以西北歐為基礎，以及實際貨量會流向哪裡。所以那些價格是高於Mont Belvieu定價的。

Yes, comparing Marcus Hook as the export facility to Belvieu, we expect to see a premium at Marcus Hook compared to Belvieu. That's right.

是的，把Marcus Hook作為出口設施與Belvieu相比，我們預期Marcus Hook相對於Belvieu會有溢價。沒錯。

Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, that then concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mike Kennedy for some closing remarks.

非常感謝。各位女士先生，問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給Mike Kennedy做結語。

Thank you for joining us on our call today. If you have any further questions, please feel free to reach out to us. Thanks, again.

感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。如果你們還有任何進一步問題，歡迎隨時與我們聯繫。再次感謝。

Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes this conference call. Thank you for attending and you may now disconnect your lines.

非常感謝。各位女士先生，本次電話會議到此結束。感謝各位出席，現在可以掛斷電話線。