Antero Resources Corp (AR) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings and welcome to the Antero Resources third-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.

    各位好,歡迎參加 Antero Resources 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作員說明)請注意,本次會議正在錄音。

  • I will now turn the conference over to your host, Dan Katzenberg, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

    現在我將把會議交給主持人,投資人關係總監丹‧卡岑伯格。謝謝。你可以開始了。

  • Daniel Katzenberg - Director - Finance and Investor Relations

    Daniel Katzenberg - Director - Finance and Investor Relations

  • Thank you for joining us for Antero's third-quarter 2025 investor conference call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operating highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteroresources.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

    感謝您參加 Antero 2025 年第三季投資者電話會議。我們將花幾分鐘時間回顧財務和營運方面的要點,然後進行問答環節。我還想引導您訪問我們網站的主頁 www.anteroresources.com,我們在那裡提供了單獨的收益電話會議演示文稿,我們將在今天的電話會議上進行回顧。

  • Today's call may contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures. Joining me on the call today are Michael Kennedy, CEO and President; Brendan Krueger, CFO; Dave Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing and Transportation; and Justin Power, Senior Vice President of Natural Gas Marketing.

    今天的電話會議可能包含某些非GAAP財務指標。有關這些措施的重要披露信息,請參閱我們的盈利新聞稿。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有:首席執行官兼總裁邁克爾·肯尼迪;首席財務官布倫丹·克魯格;液體營銷和運輸高級副總裁戴夫·坎內隆戈;以及天然氣營銷高級副總裁賈斯汀·鮑爾。

  • I will now turn the call over to Mike.

    現在我將把通話轉給麥克。

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Thank you, Dan, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start on slide number 3 titled Antero Strategic Initiatives. We are entering an exciting time period for the natural gas market rarely have we witnessed such a visible step change in demand. This significant demand growth is driven by increasing US LNG exports combined with the surge in natural gas power generation that is accelerating from the build-out of new data centers.

    謝謝你,丹,大家早安。我想從題為「Antero策略舉措」的第3張投影片開始。天然氣市場正進入一個令人興奮的時期,我們很少看到需求出現如此明顯的階梯式變化。這項顯著的需求成長是由美國液化天然氣出口增加以及天然氣發電量激增共同推動的,而天然氣發電量激增又是由新建資料中心加速發展所致。

  • Antero is poised to benefit from the structural demand changes through our long-term vision and recent strategic initiatives, which includes adding to our core Marcellus position in West Virginia. We accomplished this through both bolt-on transactions and continuing our organic leasing program to increase our position in the West Virginia Marcellus fairway. Returning to West Virginia dry gas development to highlight our ability to quickly respond to the regional demand that is beginning to show up in Appalachia.

    憑藉我們的長期願景和近期戰略舉措,Antero 已做好準備,從結構性需求變化中受益,其中包括擴大我們在西維吉尼亞州的核心馬塞勒斯頁岩氣業務。我們透過附加交易和繼續推進我們的有機租賃計劃,提高了我們在西維吉尼亞州馬塞勒斯頁岩氣領域的地位,從而實現了這一目標。回到西維吉尼亞州的干氣開發,以突顯我們快速回應阿巴拉契亞地區開始出現的區域需求的能力。

  • We can either supply directly into future demand projects or grow into a local market if the local basis tightens. Also used hedging as a tool to lock in attractive free cash flow yields to support our dry and milling gas development program and our efforts to be countercyclical in transactions and share repurchases. We believe the execution of these strategic initiatives will enhance our ability to capitalize on the significant demand increases that are expected for natural gas over the long term.

    我們可以直接滿足未來的需求項目,或者如果本地市場基數收緊,也可以拓展本地市場。我們也利用避險作為鎖定有吸引力的自由現金流收益率的工具,以支持我們的乾氣和選礦氣開發計劃,以及我們在交易和股票回購方面採取逆週期策略的努力。我們相信,這些策略措施的實施將增強我們利用天然氣長期預期大幅成長的需求的能力。

  • Now let's turn to slide number 4, which highlights our third-quarter operating results. Continuing our trend of improving our drilling and completion results, the third-quarter was our most impressive operating performance to date. We set numerous company records and achieved significant progress. The right-hand side of the slide highlights the various company records (technical difficulty) feet.

    現在讓我們來看看第 4 張投影片,其中重點介紹了我們第三季的經營業績。我們持續保持著鑽井和完井效果不斷提升的趨勢,第三季是我們迄今為止最令人印象深刻的營運表現。我們創造了多項公司紀錄,並取得了顯著進展。幻燈片的右側突出顯示了各種公司記錄(技術難度)英尺。

  • On the completion side, our completion stages per day continues to climb higher, averaging another quarterly record at 14.5 stages per day or 2,900 feet per day. And as Patterson-UTI highlighted on the call last week, we set what we believe to be a world record for continuous pumping hours -- 15 days of nonstop pumping hours, a truly remarkable fee.

    在完工方面,我們每天的完工階段數持續攀升,平均每天再創季度紀錄,達到 14.5 個階段或每天 2900 英尺。正如 Patterson-UTI 在上週的電話會議上所強調的那樣,我們創造了我們認為的世界紀錄——連續 15 天不間斷地進行泵奶,這是一項非常了不起的成就。

  • Next, let's turn to slide number 5, titled Marcellus Core Fairway expansion. Our additional land investment is driven by the ongoing success we are seeing from our development plan and on the ground from our organic leasing effort. Strong well performance continues to expand our view of where the Marcellus core boundaries extend. The map on the left of this slide depicts what we believe to be the Marcellus core at the time of our IPO in 2013.

    接下來,我們來看第 5 張投影片,標題為「馬塞勒斯核心球道擴張」。我們之所以追加土地投資,是因為我們的發展計畫和實際租賃工作都取得了持續成功。強勁的油井產量不斷擴大了我們對馬塞勒斯頁岩核心邊界延伸範圍的認識。此幻燈片左側的地圖描繪了我們認為在 2013 年公司上市時馬塞勒斯頁岩氣核心的區域。

  • As you can see, we built our position focused on Doddridge and Harrison Counties, which we believe will deliver the best drilling results. However, over the past decade as our development focus shifted into the neighboring counties and our well performance continued to strengthen, these results have driven an increased organic leasing program into those counties.

    如您所見,我們已將業務重心放在多德里奇縣和哈里森縣,我們相信這兩個縣將取得最佳的鑽探成果。然而,在過去的十年裡,隨著我們的發展重點轉移到鄰近的縣,並且我們的油井性能不斷增強,這些成果推動了我們在這些縣開展更多有機租賃計劃。

  • Antero's organic leasing efforts have been a tremendous success over the years. We continue to acquire acreage at attractive levels per location with the incremental locations more than offsetting our annual turn-in lines. Further, this program allows us to maintain our development focus in close proximity to our current footprint reducing geologic risk while leveraging the benefits of Antero Midstream. Now to touch on the current liquids and NGL fundamentals. I'm going to turn it over to our Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing Transportation, Dave Cannelongo for his comments.

    多年來,Antero 的有機租賃策略取得了巨大的成功。我們繼續以極具吸引力的價格收購土地,新增土地數量足以彌補我們每年的土地週轉量。此外,該計劃使我們能夠保持開發重點,緊貼我們目前的業務範圍,從而降低地質風險,同時利用 Antero Midstream 的優勢。現在來談談目前液態烴和天然氣凝液的基本情況。接下來,我將把發言權交給負責液體行銷運輸的高級副總裁戴夫·坎內隆戈,請他發表意見。

  • David Cannelongo - Senior Vice President - Liquids Marketing & Transportation

    David Cannelongo - Senior Vice President - Liquids Marketing & Transportation

  • Thanks, Mike. Several market trends are pointing to improving NGL fundamentals and higher prices in the coming quarters, following several years of substantial year-over-year supply increases, multiple third-party data providers are forecasting a slowing of NGL production growth across the US due to the current low oil price environment and sharp reduction in oil-directed rig counts. To do drilling activity in oil basins will have an impact on associated rich gas and NGL production, particularly in the Permian Basin, which accounts for more than half of total US seizures supply.

    謝謝你,麥克。儘管經歷了數年的大幅同比增長,但多個市場趨勢表明,未來幾季天然氣凝液 (NGL) 的基本面將有所改善,價格也將上漲。然而,由於當前油價低迷以及石油鑽井平台數量大幅減少,多家第三方資料供應商預測,美國天然氣凝液 (NGL) 產量成長將會放緩。在油氣盆地進行鑽探活動會對伴生氣和天然氣凝液的生產產生影響,尤其是在二疊紀盆地,該盆地占美國天然氣總產量的一半以上。

  • As shown on slide number 6, titled, US C3+ supply growth slows. The chart on the left shows projected NGL supply growth in the Permian slowing down dramatically in 2026 compared to previous years. At the same time, the chart on the right shows total US C3+ production growth in 2026 is nearly flat with only 11,000 barrels a day of incremental supply expected.

    如第 6 張投影片所示,標題為「美國 C3+ 供應成長放緩」。左側圖表顯示,與往年相比,2026 年二疊紀盆地的 NGL 供應成長預計將大幅放緩。同時,右側圖表顯示,2026 年美國 C3+ 總產量成長幾乎持平,預計每天新增供應量僅 11,000 桶。

  • This indicates that while the Permian should continue to rise, albeit at a slower rate. This increase is being offset by even slower growth or outright declines and less economic Tier 2 producing regions, including the Bakken, Rockies, and Mid-Continent. The declining expectations for Sirius supply growth comes at a time when exports from the US are now able to ramp up aided by a debottlenecking of terminal capacity. Year-to-date, propane exports have increased by over 120,000 barrels a day, averaging 1.85 million barrels a day compared to 1.72 million barrels a day for the same period last year.

    這表明二疊紀地層應該會繼續上升,儘管速度會放緩。這一增長被成長速度較慢甚至完全下降以及經濟實力較弱的二線生產地區(包括巴肯、落基山脈和中大陸地區)所抵消。在碼頭產能瓶頸得到解決,美國出口得以加速成長之際,人們對 Sirius 供應成長的預期卻在下降。今年迄今為止,丙烷出口量每天增加超過 12 萬桶,平均每天 185 萬桶,去年同期為每天 172 萬桶。

  • This increase occurred despite current global trade uncertainty, illustrating the continued call on US barrels. At the same time, LPG export terminal expansions have started to come online beginning this summer and ample export capacity will be available for the foreseeable future, as shown on slide number 7, titled New capacity to ramp up exports.

    儘管當前全球貿易情勢不明朗,但原油價格仍出現上漲,顯示市場對美國原油的需求依然強勁。同時,液化石油氣出口碼頭擴建工程已於今年夏季開始投入運營,在可預見的未來將有充足的出口能力可用,如題為“新增產能以增加出口”的第 7 張幻燈片所示。

  • Going forward, unconstrained dock capacity will allow US barrels to efficiently clear the market and bring Mont Belvieu prices as close as possible to premium international LPG prices. In the past, Antero has often benefited during times of US Gulf Coast terminal constraints with our ability to export barrels out of market book and capture iDock premiums.

    展望未來,不受限制的碼頭容量將使美國原油能夠有效清盤,並使蒙特貝爾維尤的價格盡可能接近優質國際液化石油氣價格。過去,每當美國墨西哥灣沿岸碼頭供應緊張時,Antero 都能夠從市場訂單之外出口原油並獲得 iDock 溢價,從而受益匪淺。

  • The ability to execute this strategy has served as a differentiator for Antero versus almost all other NGL producers in the US. However, it is important to remember that Antero benefits more from higher Mont Belvieu prices than from high dock premiums. This is because higher Mont Belvieu prices lift both our export sales and all of our domestic sales, the latter of which are exclusively priced on a Mont Belvieu index. Antero on average exports less than 45% of its gross C3+ production and sells the remainder of the C3+ volumes in the domestic market. Therefore, an uplift in domestic sales prices is much more impactful for Antero's NGL realizations.

    執行這項策略的能力使 Antero 與美國幾乎所有其他 NGL 生產商區分開來。然而,需要記住的是,安特羅從蒙特貝爾維尤更高的價格中獲益更多,而不是從高額的碼頭溢價中獲益更多。這是因為蒙貝爾維尤價格上漲會提升我們的出口銷售額和所有國內銷售額,而國內銷售額完全是根據蒙貝爾維尤指數定價的。Antero 平均出口的 C3+ 總產量不到其總產量的 45%,其餘的 C3+ 產量則在國內市場銷售。因此,國內銷售價格的上漲對 Antero 的 NGL 實現收益的影響要大得多。

  • In conclusion, the key challenges of 2025 all trend in our favor moving forward as reduced producer activity combined with higher export capacity and international demand pool is expected to bring propane storage inventories from the top of the five-year range to near the five-year average by early 2026. These fundamentals will support Mont Belvieu prices in 2026 and strength in C3+ prices as a percentage of WTI.

    總之,2025 年的主要挑戰都將朝著對我們有利的方向發展,因為生產活動減少,出口能力提高,國際需求池擴大,預計到 2026 年初,丙烷庫存將從五年來的峰值降至五年來的平均水平。這些基本面因素將在 2026 年支撐 Mont Belvieu 原油價格,並支撐 C3+ 原油價格佔 WTI 原油價格的百分比走強。

  • With that, I'll now turn it over to our Senior Vice President of Natural Gas Marketing Justin followed and discuss the natural gas market.

    接下來,我將把發言權交給我們的天然氣行銷高級副總裁賈斯汀,他將討論天然氣市場。

  • Justin Fowler - Senior Vice President - Gas Marketing & Transportation

    Justin Fowler - Senior Vice President - Gas Marketing & Transportation

  • Thanks, Dave. As we approach winter, we see seasonal and overall positive fundamental demand trends coming from natural gas. I'll start on slide number 8, titled TTP 500 basis shrink. LNG export demand is expected to increase by 4.5 Bcf a from the beginning of 2025 to exit 2025. This increase is almost entirely due to the successful and quick ramp-up of the Plaquemines LNG facility.

    謝謝你,戴夫。隨著冬季臨近,我們看到天然氣的需求呈現出季節性和整體上積極的基本面趨勢。我將從第 8 張投影片開始,標題為「TTP 500 基差收縮」。預計從 2025 年初到 2025 年底,液化天然氣出口需求將增加 45 億立方英尺/年。這一成長幾乎完全歸功於普拉克明斯液化天然氣工廠的成功和快速投產。

  • This week, the facility achieved a new daily record for feed gas at approximately 3.9 Bcf per day. With the first 18 trains now complete, Venture Global will begin Plaquemine 2, which will increase the capacity by an incremental 2.4 Bcf per day with the first phase in 2026 followed by the second phase in 2027. The significant demand pull for this LNG facility has led to higher demand along our TGP 500L fund transport path and has driven a higher premium at that delivery point relative to Henry Hub.

    本週,該設施的原料氣日產量創下新紀錄,約為每天 39 億立方英尺。隨著首批 18 列火車建成,Venture Global 將啟動 Plaquemine 2 項目,該項目將使產能每天增加 24 億立方英尺,第一階段將於 2026 年啟動,第二階段將於 2027 年啟動。該液化天然氣設施的顯著需求拉動導致我們 TGP 500L 基金運輸路徑上的需求增加,並推高了該交付點相對於亨利樞紐的溢價。

  • Looking ahead to the winter, this premium to Henry Hub has increased to nearly $0.80 and in 2026, the premium is now at $0.64 for the full calendar year, the highest level seen to date. As a reminder, approximately 25% of Antero's gross natural gas is sold at the TGP's 500 pricing hub. Our exposure to TTP 500 is expected to lead to higher natural gas realizations.

    展望冬季,亨利樞紐的溢價已增至近 0.80 美元,而 2026 年全年的溢價將達到 0.64 美元,這是迄今為止的最高水準。提醒一下,Antero 約 25% 的天然氣總產量在 TGP 的 500 定價中心出售。我們投資 TTP 500 預計將帶來更高的天然氣實現價格。

  • Slide number 9 takes a closer look at the significant natural gas demand surge that is coming over the next 24 months from the new LNG capacity additions. Over this short period, LNG demand is expected to increase by another 10 Bcf per day, driven by the start-up of Plaquin 2 Golden Pass, Corpus Christi III, and CalcashiPass 2. These new LNG facilities are expected to continue to drive higher price premiums along the LNG fairway hubs where we sell 75% of our natural gas.

    第 9 張投影片將更詳細地探討未來 24 個月內,隨著新增液化天然氣產能,天然氣需求將大幅增加。在這段短時間內,受 Plaquin 2 Golden Pass、Corpus Christi III 和 CalcashiPass 2 的投產推動,液化天然氣需求預計將每天增加 100 億立方英尺。預計這些新的液化天然氣設施將繼續推高液化天然氣運輸樞紐沿線的價格溢價,而我們 75% 的天然氣都是在這些樞紐銷售的。

  • In addition to the substantial LNG demand growth, power demand is also expected to increase significantly over the next five years. The map on slide number 10 illustrates all of the competition for natural gas supply in our development region and down our firm transportation corridor. Based on announcements that have been made to date, regional demand is expected to increase by 8 Bcf per day.

    除了液化天然氣需求的顯著增長外,預計未來五年電力需求也將大幅增加。第 10 張幻燈片上的地圖展示了我們開發區域和我們公司運輸走廊沿線所有天然氣供應的競爭情況。根據目前已公佈的信息,預計區域需求將每天增加 80 億立方英尺。

  • As Mike has discussed in the past, Antero has 1,000 gross dry gas locations that we could accelerate activity on if there is a regional call for higher supply. A long firm transportation fairway, there has been more than 3 Bcf of power demand projects announced to date.

    正如麥克過去所討論的那樣,安特羅擁有 1,000 個乾氣開採點,如果區域內對更高供應量有需求,我們可以加快開採活動。一條漫長而穩固的運輸通道,迄今已宣布了超過 30 億立方英尺的電力需求項目。

  • Additionally, there is an incremental 13 Bcf per day of expected demand between LNG facilities and power projects announced along the LNG Gulf Coast fairway. All of these projects will be competing for natural gas supply that could face supply challenges in that short time frame. Antero is uniquely positioned to participate in each of these three regions with our ability to increase dry gas activity for local demand or to use our firm transportation portfolio to access increasing demand all the way down to the LNG fairway.

    此外,預計沿著墨西哥灣沿岸液化天然氣運輸通道宣布的液化天然氣設施和電力項目將帶來每天 130 億立方英尺的額外需求。所有這些項目都將爭奪天然氣供應,而天然氣供應在短時間內可能會面臨挑戰。Antero 擁有獨特的優勢,能夠參與這三個地區的業務,我們有能力增加乾氣活動以滿足當地需求,或利用我們可靠的運輸組合來滿足不斷增長的需求,直至液化天然氣運輸通道。

  • With that, I will turn it over to Brendan Kruger, CFO of Antero Resources.

    接下來,我將把發言權交給 Antero Resources 的財務長 Brendan Kruger。

  • Brendan Krueger - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

    Brendan Krueger - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

  • Thanks, Justin. Our capital-efficient program that Mike highlighted resulted in attractive free cash flow of over $90 million during the quarter. Year-to-date, we have generated almost $600 million of free cash flow. Slide 11 highlights the uses of our 2025 free cash flow. Year-to-date, we have paid down debt by approximately $180 million, purchased $163 million of stock and invested $242 million in asset acquisitions.

    謝謝你,賈斯汀。麥克重點介紹的我們高效的資本利用計劃在本季度帶來了超過 9000 萬美元的可觀自由現金流。今年迄今為止,我們已創造了近 6 億美元的自由現金流。第 11 頁重點介紹了我們 2025 年自由現金流的用途。今年迄今為止,我們已償還債務約 1.8 億美元,購買了價值 1.63 億美元的股票,並投資 2.42 億美元用於資產收購。

  • We believe this portfolio approach to uses of free cash flow will drive attractive shareholder value creation as we continue to compound this effort going forward. As we've proven historically, we will be disciplined in our transactions. The transactions we completed during the third-quarter were accretive to the key metrics that we prioritize, including free cash flow and net asset value per share.

    我們相信,隨著我們不斷加大投入,這種自由現金流組合運用方式將為股東創造可觀的價值。正如我們以往的經驗所證明的那樣,我們將在交易中保持嚴謹的態度。我們在第三季完成的交易對我們優先考慮的關鍵指標產生了增益,包括自由現金流和每股淨值。

  • Importantly, we were able to fund this activity entirely with our free cash flow in 2025 and therefore, do not have to issue equity at today's levels in our financing efforts.

    重要的是,我們能夠在 2025 年完全依靠自由現金流來資助這項活動,因此,在融資過程中,我們不必像現在這樣發行股票。

  • Now let's turn to slide 12 to discuss our updated hedge program. During the quarter, we added natural gas swaps for the fourth-quarter of 2025 and full year 2026 to 2027. We also restructured our wide natural gas collars for 2026 raising the floor price.

    現在讓我們翻到第 12 張投影片,討論我們更新後的避險計畫。本季度,我們增加了 2025 年第四季和 2026 年至 2027 年全年的天然氣互換合約。我們也調整了 2026 年的寬幅天然氣選擇權合約,提高了最低價格。

  • As Mike touched on during his comments, these hedges support our strategic initiatives. We have now hedged 24% of our expected natural gas volumes in 2026 with swaps at $3.82 per MMBtu and 28% with wide collars, between $3.22 and $5.83 per MMBtu. Our hedge book allows us to protect the downside by locking in a portion of our free cash flow yield.

    正如麥克在發言中提到的那樣,這些對沖措施支持我們的戰略舉措。我們目前已透過互換交易對 2026 年預期天然氣產量的 24% 進行了套期保值,互換價格為每百萬英熱單位 3.82 美元;並透過寬區間選擇權對 28% 進行了避險,選擇權價格介於每百萬英熱單位 3.22 美元至 5.83 美元之間。我們的對沖策略使我們能夠透過鎖定一部分自由現金流收益來保護下行風險。

  • This is illustrated on slide number 13, titled reduced cash flow volatility. Power hedges have locked in base level free cash flow yields of 6% to 9% at natural gas prices between $2 and $3 while at the same time, we maintained significant exposure to rising natural gas prices.

    這點在第 13 張投影片中有所說明,標題為「降低現金流波動性」。電力對沖已鎖定天然氣價格在每加侖 2 美元至 3 美元之間時 6% 至 9% 的基本自由現金流收益率,與此同時,我們也保持了對天然氣價格上漲的顯著敞口。

  • Further, these headers result in a 2026 free cash flow breakeven at just $1.75 per Mcf, assuming year-to-date NGL prices. Looking forward, our return of capital and transaction strategy is anchored by our low absolute debt position that provides us with substantial flexibility to pivot between accretive transactions in our core Marcellus West Virginia footprint, debt reduction and share repurchases.

    此外,假設年初至今的 NGL 價格不變,這些目標將使 2026 年的自由現金流損益平衡點僅為每千立方英尺 1.75 美元。展望未來,我們的資本回報和交易策略以我們較低的絕對債務水平為基礎,這為我們提供了相當大的靈活性,可以在我們位於西維吉尼亞州馬塞勒斯核心區域的增值交易、債務削減和股票回購之間進行調整。

  • We will continue to evaluate accretive opportunities to increase our net production in core inventory, while importantly, waiting to increase gross volumes until the broader natural gas market calls for it. While we continue to target maintenance capital we are well positioned with substantial dry gas inventory for future growth opportunities from the regional demand increases that are expected.

    我們將繼續評估增加核心庫存淨產量的增值機會,同時重要的是,我們將等到更廣泛的天然氣市場需要時再增加總產量。儘管我們持續致力於維護性資本投入,但我們擁有充足的乾氣庫存,能夠很好地掌握未來區域需求成長帶來的機會。

  • With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

    接下來,我將把電話轉交給接線員,回答大家的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan.

    (操作說明)Arun Jayaram,摩根大通。

  • Arun Jayaram - Analyst

    Arun Jayaram - Analyst

  • Gentlemen, I wanted to maybe start with the decision to commence D&C operations on the gas side and Harrison County. I was wanted to know if you could talk about what the catalyst was for that kind of decision, did data centers, power deals down the road, did that play into kind of the calculus about doing something you had done in 10 years or so?

    各位先生,我想先談談在天然氣方面和哈里森縣開展D&C作業的決定。我想知道您能否談談促成您做出這種決定的催化劑是什麼,資料中心、未來的電力交易,這些因素是否影響了您在過去 10 年左右的時間裡做出類似決定的考量?

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Yes, Arun, that's exactly kind of the catalyst. We've been active in those discussions. And came clear to us all these discussions really related to kind of the eastern portion of our acreage position and where those opportunities would be located, also where the local demand is. And so we thought looking at our position, we have 100,000 acres. We have significant historical activity there.

    是的,阿倫,這正是催化劑。我們一直積極參與這些討論。我們清楚地認識到,所有這些討論實際上都與我們土地面積的東部部分有關,這些機會在哪裡,以及當地的需求在哪裡。因此,我們考慮到我們擁有10萬英畝的土地。我們在那裡有著重要的歷史活動。

  • We have the midstream infrastructure. So we have a proof-of-concept pad. It's already a pad that exists with wells going south. So it is still North and it will be very low-cost wells and highly productive, and we're excited to get back at it at the -- in the Harrison County area.

    我們擁有中游基礎設施。所以我們有一個概念驗證平台。這是一個已經存在的井場,油井向南延伸。所以,這裡仍然是北部,油井成本非常低,產量很高,我們很高興能在哈里森縣地區重新開始工作。

  • Arun Jayaram - Analyst

    Arun Jayaram - Analyst

  • Got it. And then maybe my follow-up, just given Mike is doing a little bit more kind of gas drilling the thoughts on how you're thinking about a 2026 program at Antero and obviously, historically, around this time, you've decided to do a, call it, a drilling partnership, which has defrayed some of the costs. But how are you -- what is your thinking around 2026 at this point? Understanding is still probably early in the budgeting process.

    知道了。然後,鑑於 Mike 正在進行更多天然氣鑽探工作,我想問您對 Antero 2026 年計劃的看法,顯然,從歷史上看,在這個時候,您通常會決定開展一項鑽井合作,這可以分攤一些成本。但是,你現在對2026年有什麼想法呢?對預算編制過程的理解可能還處於早期階段。

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • It's still, but we're still a maintenance capital around. This is just one pad. Really, the fourth-quarter production level were in the 3.5% to 3.5% to 2.5% range. That's the level we'll hold generally in '26. So we're still there. This is just more of a proof-of-concept pad -- on the drilling JV, that's still to be determined. We'll see where kind of the market is related to that, we could have -- we could continue that in '26, but we haven't made that decision yet.

    雖然情況依然如此,但我們仍然擁有一定的維護資金。這只是其中一塊墊子。實際上,第四季的生產水準在 3.5% 到 3.5% 到 2.5% 的範圍內。這就是我們在2026年大致會保持的水平。所以我們還在那裡。這更像是一個概念驗證平台——至於鑽井合資項目,還有待確定。我們會看看市場狀況如何,我們或許可以在 2026 年繼續這樣做,但我們還沒有做出決定。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Freeman, Raymond James.

    約翰·弗里曼,雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

  • John Freeman - Analyst

    John Freeman - Analyst

  • Just a follow-up on a range question with the following the acquisitions and the higher production level now that you cited that you're going to have in 4Q. Just kind of how does that impact kind of the prior commentary about maintenance CapEx? I just think previously, you've kind of talked about kind of flattish CapEx to maintain production. Just wondering if this has an impact?

    關於您提到的收購以及您提到的第四季度更高的產量水平,我有一個後續問題。那麼,這會對先前關於維護資本支出的評論產生什麼影響呢?我只是覺得之前你好像說過要保持資本支出相對穩定以維持生產。想知道這會不會有影響?

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • It is at the same ratio that the increase -- the production increased by 3%. So Falotico to expect a 3% increase in your maintenance capital. So that's like an incremental $20 million from that $675 million level.

    產量成長的比例與產量成長的比例相同—產量增加了 3%。因此,Falotico預計您的維護資金將增加3%。所以這相當於在 6.75 億美元的基礎上增加了 2000 萬美元。

  • John Freeman - Analyst

    John Freeman - Analyst

  • Got it. And then looking at the acquisitions, the $260 million of acquisitions in the quarter, -- just trying to get a better feel for if this is not kind of a bigger focus of the company or was this sort of kind of one-off in nature and just you happen to have all these sort of transactions, Domino during the quarter? Just kind of how to think about that going forward.

    知道了。然後看看收購方面,本季收購金額高達 2.6 億美元——只是想更好地了解這是否是公司的一個更大重點,或者這只是一次性交易,只是碰巧多米諾在本季度進行了所有這些交易?只是想了解一下今後該如何看待這個問題。

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Yes. I don't know if it's a bigger focus. I just think with our position in the West Virginia Marcellus. These type of transactions come to us and are available to us if it makes sense at the time. When you look at our acreage position contiguous nature of it, we are the liquids developer in West Virginia. And so we get opportunities from time to time. And so we evaluate them and these ones make sense.

    是的。我不知道這是否是更重要的關注點。我只是覺得,就我們在西維吉尼亞州馬塞勒斯頁岩氣田的地位而言。這類交易會主動找上門來,如果當時情況合適,我們就可以進行這類交易。從我們的土地面積和連片性來看,我們是西維吉尼亞州的液體燃料開發商。因此,我們時不時會獲得一些機會。因此,我們對它們進行了評估,發現這些是合理的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Deckelbaum, TD Cowen.

    David Deckelbaum,TD Cowen。

  • David Deckelbaum - Analyst

    David Deckelbaum - Analyst

  • I guess as we get into '26, obviously, you guys just drilled a record lateral length, and we saw the impacts to the average lateral length in the quarter. I guess just given some of the land spend that you have this year, how do you see that progressing on average into '26 given that you guys have had some pretty significant efficiency gains ?

    我想,隨著我們進入 2026 年,很明顯,你們剛剛鑽出了創紀錄的橫向長度,我們看到了這對季度平均橫向長度的影響。鑑於你們今年在土地方面的一些支出,考慮到你們已經取得了相當顯著的效率提升,你們認為到2026年平均而言,土地支出會如何變化??

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Yes. No, it actually goes up. It's a good. I think it goes up to 14,000. I think we're generally around this year in the low 13,000. Next year is up a 1,000, you highlighted the very efficient nature of our leasing program. David, that's exactly what it's doing. He's trying to optimize those lateral lengths and also expand our position. So next year is up about 1,000 foot per well.

    是的。不,它實際上還在上漲。這是好事。我認為最高可達 14,000。我認為我們今年的整體數據應該在 13000 左右。明年將增加 1000,您強調了我們租賃計劃的高效性。大衛,它正是這麼做的。他試圖優化橫向移動距離,並擴大我們的陣型。所以明年每口井的產量將增加約 1000 英尺。

  • David Deckelbaum - Analyst

    David Deckelbaum - Analyst

  • I guess -- I appreciate that color, Mike. My follow-up is just -- we saw obviously the acquisition this quarter. It looked like it was an increase in existing working interest, which I guess is -- I don't know if you would view that as aberrational or view this as a trend that likely continues perhaps into next year?

    我想——我挺喜歡這個顏色的,麥克。我的後續補充是——我們顯然看到了本季的收購。看起來現有工作興趣增加,我猜——我不知道您會認為這是異常現象,還是認為這是可能會持續到明年的趨勢?

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • I don't know if we'll have those opportunities. It was 30 separate transactions, all like with working at trust -- another one is royalty interest, another one with more acreage based. So hopefully, they continue into next year, but it's hard to forecast. But like I mentioned, we have such a dominant position in this area of the Marcellus. These types of transactions tend to be available to us if they -- if they make sense and if they're accretive.

    我不知道我們是否會有這樣的機會。這是 30 筆獨立的交易,都與信託運作有關——其中一筆是特許權使用費權益,另一筆是基於更多土地面積的權益。所以希望這種勢頭能延續到明年,但這很難預測。但正如我之前提到的,我們在馬塞勒斯頁岩氣的這一區域擁有絕對優勢。如果這類交易有意義且能帶來收益,我們通常就可以進行這類交易。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kevin MacCurdy, Pickering Energy Partners.

    Kevin MacCurdy,Pickering Energy Partners。

  • Kevin MacCurdy - Analyst

    Kevin MacCurdy - Analyst

  • The hedges you added this quarter were unlike past quarters and that you aggressively hedged the next quarter or fourth-quarter in this instance and you opt for swaps for next year instead of the wide collars before. Has your strategy on hedging changed or was this just opportunistic? And should we expect you to have a certain hedge level heading forward from here?

    本季新增的避險與以往季度不同,你積極對沖了下一季(即第四季),並且你選擇明年進行互換交易,而不是像以前那樣使用寬領式選擇權。你的對沖策略是否有所改變,還是這只是機會主義操作?那麼,我們是否應該預期您今後會保持一定的對沖水準?

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • I think it's probably both. If we could replicate what we have next year where it's -- these are approximate numbers a quarter with wide collars, protecting at 3.25 with exposure up to 6 and a quarter in that high $3, $4 range and then 50% unhedged. That's actually a good model for us. I don't know if that will be available going forward. But that's a good level for us when we looked at.

    我認為可能兩者都有。如果我們明年能夠複製我們現在的情況,那麼——這些是近似數字:四分之一的股票採用寬領套,保護價格為 3.25,風險敞口高達 6;四分之一的股票價格在 3 美元、4 美元的高位區間,然後 50% 的股票不進行對沖。這其實對我們來說是一個很好的榜樣。我不知道未來是否還會提供這項服務。但就我們目前的情況來看,這算是一個不錯的水平。

  • The program, as Brendan mentioned in his comments, the ability to lock in above 5% free cash flow yields. I think it's 6% to 9% in the $2 to $3 range, but then expose ourselves completely to the upside, up to a 20% free cash flow yield. That feels like a prudent way to manage the business.

    正如 Brendan 在評論中提到的那樣,該計劃能夠鎖定 5% 以上的自由現金流收益率。我認為在 2 美元到 3 美元的區間內,收益率為 6% 到 9%,但如果股價上漲,收益率最高可達 20%,我們將完全暴露在上漲行情中。這感覺是一種審慎的商業管理方式。

  • Kevin MacCurdy - Analyst

    Kevin MacCurdy - Analyst

  • I appreciate the color there. And then as a follow-up, ethane volumes significantly outperformed on price and volume this quarter. Was that just due to sales timing? Or is there any sustainability to that be?

    我喜歡那裡的顏色。此外,本季乙烷的產量和價格均顯著優於預期。那隻是因為銷售時機的原因嗎?或者說,這種做法具有永續性嗎?

  • David Cannelongo - Senior Vice President - Liquids Marketing & Transportation

    David Cannelongo - Senior Vice President - Liquids Marketing & Transportation

  • Yes, Kevin, this is Dave Cannelongo. Really just a function of customers and when they're up and running and taking full volumes and then also or the spreads into the Gulf Coast on ATEX have been improving here in the back half of the year. So just taking advantage of our capacity on that system.

    是的,凱文,我是戴夫‧坎內隆戈。實際上,這取決於客戶的情況,以及他們何時恢復正常營運並達到滿載交易量,此外,今年下半年墨西哥灣沿岸 ATEX 的價差也有所改善。所以,我們只是充分利用了該系統的容量。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Phillip Jungwirth, BMO Capital Markets.

    Phillip Jungwirth,BMO資本市場。

  • Phillip Jungwirth - Analyst

    Phillip Jungwirth - Analyst

  • On the dry gas acreage in Harrison County, there's been a lot of operational improvements and advancements in drilling and completion technology since you last drilled here. So I was wondering if you could talk to your expectations as to how much of an uplift you'd expect versus kind of the historical type curves from the wells that you had drilled here previously?

    自從您上次在哈里森縣的乾氣田鑽探以來,這裡的鑽井和完井技術已經取得了許多營運改進和進步。所以我想知道,您能否談談您對產量提升的預期,與您之前在這裡鑽探的油井的歷史典型曲線相比,您預計產量會提升多少?

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Yes, we expect about a 50% improvement in field wells in that area. It's more like 1.3 Bcf per day, but with today after 12 years, we've gotten a lot better at it, and I think we have approximately 1,500 wells now, and those are one of our first. So we're excited about optimizing the completion of those wells. And so was 1.3 Bcf per day expectation is 2 Bcf. I mean, 2 Bcf per 1,000 foot now.

    是的,我們預計該地區的油田油井產量將提高約 50%。更像是每天 13 億立方英尺,但經過 12 年的發展,我們今天在這方面已經做得更好了,我認為我們現在大約有 1500 口井,而這些是我們最早的井之一。所以我們很高興能夠優化這些油井的完井流程。因此,每天的天然氣產量為 13 億立方英尺,預期產量為 20 億立方英尺。我的意思是,現在每1000英尺有20億立方英尺的天然氣。

  • Phillip Jungwirth - Analyst

    Phillip Jungwirth - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then I wanted to come back to something you referenced last quarter. But with your water systems, I was wondering if you could expand upon the data center cooling opportunity for Antero Resources in Antero Midstream. Just what would this look like and how would you look to play a role?

    好的。偉大的。然後我想回到你上個季度提到的一個話題。但是,關於您的水系統,我想知道您是否可以詳細介紹 Antero Resources 在 Antero Midstream 的資料中心冷卻方面的機會。這具體會是什麼樣子呢?你又會如何詮釋這個角色?

  • Brendan Krueger - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

    Brendan Krueger - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

  • Yes. I think just to build on what we said last quarter, we think we are well positioned and uniquely positioned having that upstream midstream integration being fifth largest gas producer in Appalachia. We've invested about $600 million or so in the water system. So that provides Appalachia in West Virginia in particular with an advantage, I think, relative to other areas. The terrain is a bit more difficult in West Virginia, but we think the advantages of being close to fuel supply being close to water having the upstream bitstream integration, really do position Antero well.

    是的。我認為,正如我們上個季度所說,我們擁有上游和中游一體化的優勢,作為阿巴拉契亞地區第五大天然氣生產商,我們處於有利地位,並且擁有獨特的優勢。我們在供水系統上投資了大約 6 億美元。因此,我認為這尤其使西維吉尼亞州的阿巴拉契亞地區相對於其他地區具有優勢。西維吉尼亞州的地形比較複雜,但我們認為,靠近燃料供應、靠近水源以及上游比特流整合等優勢,確實使 Antero 處於有利地位。

  • So having a lot of discussions there, nothing to announce at this time, but continue to have quite a bit of discussions there. And then I think in terms of -- as we look at just the regional demand overall, I think we view this as -- it could take a few different forms. You've got either behind-the-meter power for data centers. There's been quite a few announcements just on natural gas-fired power generation, both in West Virginia and the region at large. And then I think just local prices tightening to the extent you have regional demand and local price is tightening as Mike had mentioned, we've got that significant dry gas inventory to take advantage of all those various opportunities.

    所以,那邊有很多討論,目前沒有什麼可以宣布的,但會繼續進行很多討論。然後我認為,就整體區域需求而言,我們可以將其視為——它可以採取幾種不同的形式。資料中心要麼使用表後供電,要麼使用表後供電。西維吉尼亞州和整個地區都發布了許多關於天然氣發電的公告。然後我認為,隨著區域需求和當地價格收緊(正如麥克提到的那樣),我們擁有大量的乾氣庫存,可以利用所有這些不同的機會。

  • The other thing I would just note is, we are intentionally being a bit patient on this as well. I mean I think -- as you look at our LNG portfolio, for example, we had many opportunities on Plaquemine, for example, to do long-term deals at certain prices with Plaquemine that were much lower than what we're seeing basis trade at as that LNG facility is ramped up. So we do think patients is a bit of a key here. And as you as you let this play out and the scarcity of supply continues to build. We think the ability to do margin-enhancing deals will become greater for Antero

    我還要補充一點,我們在這件事上也特意保持了一些耐心。我的意思是,我認為——例如,看看我們的液化天然氣投資組合,我們有很多機會以某些價格與 Plaquemine 達成長期交易,這些價格遠低於我們在該液化天然氣設施增產期間看到的基差交易價格。所以我們認為,患者是關鍵。而你卻任由這種情況發展下去,導致供應短缺持續加劇。我們認為,安特羅公司進行利潤提升交易的能力將會更強。

  • So having a lot of discussions, but also taking a patient approach and we want to do the right thing versus just coming out with announcement just for the sake of coming out with an announcement.

    因此,我們進行了很多討論,同時也採取了耐心的態度,我們想做正確的事,而不是為了發佈公告而發佈公告。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

    道格‧萊格特,沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

    Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

  • Mike, I wonder if I could pick up on this topic of not ceding market share, if you like in the basin. What's your decision point for growth? And I guess I kind of frame the question like, what are the conditions you need to see? Do you need to see basis improve? Or is it just about local demand increasing before you decide to step into dry gas growth in your backyard?

    麥克,我想就「不讓出市場份額」這個話題談談我的看法,如果你願意這麼說的話,就是在盆地裡。你的成長決策點是什麼?我猜我提出的問題大概是這樣的:你需要看到哪些條件?您是否需要看到基礎改善?或者,在你決定進軍本地乾氣開發領域之前,是否只需要提高本地需求?

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Yes, interesting question. We've been talking about that. Obviously, this is a proof of concept. So we'll see the results on this, but we're highly encouraged currently. So you mentioned seeding the base and we are the dominant producer in West Virginia. I think we produced over 40% of the state's natural guests. We have the dominant acreage position. We have the midstream. We have the acreage HPP. We have investment-grade balance sheet, I mean, everything you'd want for developing it. So why shouldn't we develop it.

    是的,很有意思的問題。我們一直在討論這個問題。顯然,這只是一個概念驗證。所以我們將拭目以待結果,但目前我們感到非常鼓舞。所以你提到了播種基礎,而我們是西維吉尼亞州的主要生產商。我認為我們創造了該州超過 40% 的自然遊客數量。我們擁有絕對優勢的土地面積。我們擁有中游資源。我們有水力發電廠用地。我們擁有投資等級的資產負債表,我的意思是,我們擁有發展所需的一切條件。那我們為什麼不開發它呢?

  • So it's proof of concept, we'll prove out the resource. And then when you look local demand, absolutely, would encourage us to grow into that. Also, if you kind of look out the curve, if you get $4 natural gas and you could hedge basis in the future years, that may be something we would entertain as well. So a lot of kind of different decision points there. But like I said, we're uniquely positioned for this and we're very encouraged and we look forward to this pad.

    所以這是概念驗證,我們會驗證資源的有效性。然後,當你審視在地需求時,絕對會鼓勵我們朝那個方向發展。此外,如果你觀察一下曲線,如果天然氣價格達到 4 美元,並且你可以對沖未來幾年的基差,這或許也是我們會考慮的事情。所以那裡有很多不同的決策點。但正如我所說,我們在這方面擁有獨特的優勢,我們深受鼓舞,並期待著這個新基地的建成。

  • Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

    Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

  • I appreciate that. And of course, given the depth of the inventory you have, you've got a lot of optionality, but it does raise the question and you got to forgive me for this one about the rest of your portfolio and the potential for asset sales and going with this in Ohio. Can you offer any color, compromatory or otherwise as to where you are in that process?

    我很感激。當然,鑑於您擁有的庫存深度,您有很多選擇,但這確實引出了一個問題,請原諒我問這個問題,那就是您投資組合中的其他資產以及在俄亥俄州出售資產的潛力。您能否就此事的進展提供任何明確的訊息,無論是妥協性的還是其他的?

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Yes. We're just in the middle of that process, Doug. We're highly encouraged there as well. as you can imagine, I mean, that's a highly desirable or coveted asset with the contiguous agrees position, all the midstreams in place, the ability to access the firm transport to price it outside of the basin, the liquids portion, the dry gas portion, it's kind of a ready-made asset or company. So also all the data centers over in Ohio as well and all the power demand over there.

    是的。道格,我們正處於這個過程之中。我們對此也感到非常鼓舞。正如您所想,我的意思是,這是一個非常令人嚮往或夢寐以求的資產,它擁有相鄰的協議地段,所有中游設施都已到位,能夠利用可靠的運輸渠道在盆地外進行定價,包括液體部分和乾氣部分,它就像一個現成的資產或公司。所以俄亥俄州的所有資料中心以及那裡的電力需求也同樣如此。

  • So it's highly coveted. So that's kind of why we wanted to do a market check. We're just in the middle of it, but we are encouraged.

    所以它非常搶手。所以這就是我們想進行市場調查的原因。我們目前還處於過程中,但我們感到鼓舞。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Betty Jiang, Barclays.

    Betty Jiang,巴克萊銀行。

  • Betty Jiang - Analyst

    Betty Jiang - Analyst

  • I want to go back to the data center proof of concept. It seems to me that you don't need to prove to the market that you can grow dry gas and grow it very cost effectively. And so this proof of concept is really for the customers and people you're speaking to on the other hand.

    我想回到資料中心概念驗證階段。在我看來,你不需要向市場證明你可以生產乾氣,而且生產成本非常低。因此,這個概念驗證實際上是為了你的客戶和你所接觸的人。

  • So my question is that these customers and entities, what are they looking to derisk with your proof-of-concept pad. Is it the speed at which you can deliver volume? Is it the capacity of resources that you can deliver to? And was that pad is online? Could that catalyze the conversation that you're having on the power and data center side?

    所以我的問題是,這些客戶和實體希望透過你們的概念驗證平台降低哪些風險。是交付速度還是交付量?是你所能提供的資源能力嗎?那個平板電腦在線上嗎?這能否促進你們正在進行的電力與資料中心的討論?

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • I think the proof of concept is twofold for us, and then I'll let Brendan talked about his discussions with the counterparties. But for us, it's one, lets the EURs, what's the deliverability just so we know we haven't drilled a well over here in 12 years. So is it the 2 Bcf? Is it higher than that? Is it lower?

    我認為對我們來說,概念驗證有兩方面,接下來就讓布倫丹談談他與交易對手的討論吧。但對我們來說,這是第一點,讓我們看看最終的可採儲量,看看交付能力如何,這樣我們就知道我們已經 12 年沒有在這裡鑽井了。所以是 20 億立方英尺嗎?比這還高嗎?更低嗎?

  • So we'll see on how to optimize that development. But also in the midstream, a lot of midstream capacity over there showing that we can flow it into these local kind of sites where these data centers are potentially being located just the ease of our ability to deliver gas straight to the actual facility. . I'll let Brendan talk about other customers.

    所以接下來我們會看看如何優化這個開發過程。但中游方面,那裡的中游產能也很大,這表明我們可以將天然氣輸送到這些資料中心可能所在的本地站點,這要歸功於我們能夠輕鬆地將天然氣直接輸送到實際設施。。我讓布倫丹來談談其他客戶吧。

  • Brendan Krueger - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

    Brendan Krueger - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

  • Yes. I think just to add on Doota, I think from the standpoint, we haven't drilled a well over here in 10 years. It just shows we've got the inventory over here. It will give them good perspective on the ability to quickly ramp up. And I think having the ability to have that residue gas, not only at the processing facilities and in the eastern -- or I'm sorry, in the western part of our play, but also on the eastern part of the play, where you're seeing some announcements out there on gas-fired generation. It provides us more flexibility in discussions.

    是的。我想補充一下杜塔的情況,從這個角度來看,我們這裡已經 10 年沒有鑽了。這說明我們這邊庫存充足。這將讓他們對快速提升自身能力有更清晰的認識。我認為,能夠利用這些殘餘氣體,不僅在加工設施和我們勘探區的東部——或者抱歉,是西​​部——而且在勘探區的東部,你也會看到一些關於燃氣發電的公告。它使我們在討論中擁有更大的靈活性。

  • As I mentioned, we're having multiple discussions and the ability to have flexibility around these discussions and what could be best for Antero as it relates to kind of margin enhancement. This just gives us more flexibility in different parts of the play producing in larger ways.

    正如我之前提到的,我們正在進行多方面的討論,並且能夠在這些討論中保持靈活性,以找到對 Antero 最有利的利潤提升方式。這讓我們在戲劇的不同部分能夠以更大的方式進行創作,從而擁有更大的靈活性。

  • Betty Jiang - Analyst

    Betty Jiang - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. My follow-up is on the land budget. You have increased it for 2025. But I'm wondering if the land budget would just be higher for longer, given that you have expanded the scope the boundaries of what you define as core. And can you just speak to the attractiveness of the organic leasing initiative versus potentially what you see in the private space in that area?

    知道了。那很有幫助。我的後續問題是關於土地預算的。您已將其提高至 2025 年。但我很好奇,既然你擴大了核心區域的定義範圍,土地預算是否會在更長的時間內保持在較高水準。您能否談談有機租賃模式與該地區私人租賃空間相比的吸引力?

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Yes. We generally go -- our kind of base organic leasing is always kind of looking out the next 24 months and trying to enhance those. The working interest or the lateral lengths like we discussed earlier and that's generally up to the $50 million to $75 million level. And then above that is the expansion and what do we see in a particular year. So we go into general end the year in that $75 million to $100 million range, and that's where we've been in the last three years.

    是的。我們通常會這樣做——我們這種基礎性的有機租賃總是著眼於未來 24 個月,並努力改善這些情況。就像我們之前討論的那樣,工作權益或橫向長度,通常可達 5,000 萬至 7,500 萬美元。然後,再往上就是擴張情況,以及我們在某一年看到了什麼。因此,我們預計年底的整體營收將在 7,500 萬美元到 1 億美元之間,而過去三年我們也一直維持著這個水準。

  • This year, we've just seen a lot of opportunities because our wells continue to strengthen in East these areas that we're developing, and there's more acreage in those areas than they have been kind of in the middle of the field. So our opportunity set continues to grow as our wells and our continue to support that. So right now, I'd probably go into next year, and I think most people's models have about $100 million. But if we continue to see opportunities throughout next year, that could be higher kind of in the back half of '26 if this level of activity continues.

    今年,我們看到了很多機會,因為我們在東部開發區域的油井持續增強,而且這些區域的面積比油田中部還要大。因此,隨著我們的油井和我們的持續支持,我們的機會也不斷增加。所以現在,我可能會把目光投向明年,我認為大多數人的模型都有大約 1 億美元。但是,如果我們明年繼續看到機會,如果這種活躍度持續下去,那麼 2026 年下半年情況可能會更高。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jacob Roberts, TPH.

    Jacob Roberts,TPH。

  • Jake Roberts

    Jake Roberts

  • Good morning. I wanted to ask about cash taxes. I think on the last update, you gave the market, it was a 2028 time frame those commodity prices. Just wondering if that math has changed at all given where we sit today?

    早安.我想諮詢一下現金稅的問題。我認為在上次更新中,您給出的市場預測是 2028 年的商品價格。我想知道,鑑於我們目前的處境,這種計算方法是否有所改變?

  • Brendan Krueger - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

    Brendan Krueger - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

  • No, no change there. No material cash taxes through 2027 to 2028 would be that first year we'd expect to pay some.

    不,這方面沒有改變。2027 年至 2028 年期間不會徵收任何實質現金稅,而 2028 年則是我們預計首次需要繳稅的年份。

  • Jake Roberts

    Jake Roberts

  • Okay. Perfect. And then circling back to the dry gas activity, this six-well pad or the activity going on currently to get to that 50% uplift relative to a decade ago. Should we be expecting some iterative completion design or is this ready to go into manufacturing mode ?

    好的。完美的。然後,我們再回到乾氣開採活動,這個六口井的井場,或者說目前正在進行的活動,目的是實現比十年前增長 50%。我們是否應該期待一些迭代式的最終設計,還是說它已經準備好進入製造模式了??

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Ready to go. I mean, like I mentioned, I think we've -- since that time, drilled over 1,000 wells. So it was primitive back in 2013 when you look at it. So would just be doing our typical 36 barrels of water per foot, 200 feet stages and spacing on it is like a 30-foot spacing. So lateral between the laterals. So it's just our typical design in the liquids, but just applying it to the dry gas for the first time in 12 years.

    準備出發。我的意思是,就像我之前提到的,我認為從那時到現在,我們已經鑽了 1000 多口井。所以從2013年的角度來看,它還很原始。所以,我們通常的做法是每英尺澆灌 36 桶水,每 200 英尺一個階段,間距大約是 30 英尺。所以,在側支之間是橫向的。所以這只是我們在液體領域常用的設計,但這是 12 年來第一次將其應用於乾燥氣體。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • NitKumar, Mizuho Securities.

    NitKumar,瑞穗證券。

  • Nitin Kumar - Analyst

    Nitin Kumar - Analyst

  • I want to start on the hedging. You addressed earlier, it's a little bit more prudent sort of financial management, and I agree. As you've kind of put a floor on your free cash flow yield, what are your thoughts on the cash return profile? You've kind of not that a dividend, like some of your peers as you're stabilizing your cash flow. Is that part of the discussion going forward?

    我想開始進行對沖交易。正如你之前提到的,這是一種比較謹慎的財務管理方式,我同意。既然你已經為自由現金流收益率設定了下限,那麼你對現金回報狀況有何看法?你們目前還沒有像一些同業那樣派發股息,因為你們正在穩定現金流。這是接下來討論的一部分嗎?

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • I don't think it's evident, but I think we can be very countercyclical in share repurchases with walking that in, also evaluating transactions even in a low commodity price environment. We always want to be countercyclical, and we have really no debt very low debt, no maturities for years and years. So we want to be countercyclical, but if you don't have the hedges in place when the countercyclicality happens and low commodity prices, the free cash flow is not there as well.

    我認為這並不明顯,但我認為我們可以透過逐步回購股票來非常有效地應對市場週期波動,即使在商品價格低迷的環境下,我們也可以評估交易。我們一直希望逆週期發展,而且我們幾乎沒有債務,債務水平非常低,很多年都沒有到期債務。所以我們希望逆週期操作,但如果在逆週期發生且大宗商品價格低迷時沒有對沖措施,自由現金流也不會到位。

  • So we wanted to lock in a baseline of free cash flow and then be able to use it for share repurchases or transactions is what we're thinking.

    所以我們希望鎖定一個基本的自由現金流,然後將其用於股票回購或交易,這就是我們的想法。

  • Nitin Kumar - Analyst

    Nitin Kumar - Analyst

  • Great. I appreciate that. And then the topic of M&A has been covered quite a bit, but you confirmed earlier that you're marketing the Ohio assets. Just curious, as you mentioned, you don't have a lot of near-term debt or a big balance sheet. What do you think will be the use of proceeds if you were successful in getting the price you want?

    偉大的。我很感激。併購話題已經被討論了很多,但你之前已經確認過,你正在出售俄亥俄州的資產。我只是好奇,正如您所說,您近期沒有很多債務,資產負債表也不大。如果你成功賣出了理想的價格,你認為所得款項會用於什麼用途?

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Yes. No, it's a good question, and that's why it's a high bar for us because the most likely case, I would still say it's the whole case, but we'll see where that -- the marketing goes, but the use of proceeds right now is, like you mentioned, a square at $1.3 billion of debt. We have $300 million on our credit facility, and we have, I think, $400 million on the $29 million that's kind of callable par. So we really only have $700 million of prepayable debt at the $600 million is a 2030 maturity.

    是的。不,這是一個很好的問題,所以對我們來說標準很高,因為最有可能的情況,我仍然認為就是全部情況,但我們會看看情況如何——市場營銷會如何發展,但正如你提到的,目前收益的用途是償還 13 億美元的債務。我們的信貸額度為 3 億美元,而且我認為,我們還有 4 億美元,這 2900 萬美元是可以按面值贖回的。因此,我們實際上只有 7 億美元的可提前償還債務,其中 6 億美元將於 2030 年到期。

  • I think [53.8]. So that's a good piece of paper. So that -- but then you also look at where our equity trades and the type of valuations that you're going to see for the Utica as well in excess of where our equity trades. So that could be a use of proceeds as well as we wouldn't be bad trade if you sell your Utica for well in excess of where your equity trades to use that to buy in the shares.

    我認為[53.8]。這是一張不錯的紙。所以——但你也要看看我們的股票交易情況,以及尤蒂卡的估值類型,這些估值可能會超過我們股票的交易情況。所以,這也可以是一種收益用途,如果你以遠高於股票交易價格的價格出售你的 Utica,然後用這筆錢購買股票,那也不失為一筆不錯的交易。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Leo Mariani, Roth MKM.

    Leo Mariani,Roth MKM。

  • Leo Mariani - Analyst

    Leo Mariani - Analyst

  • I just wanted to follow up a bit more on this concept of growing net volumes without growing sort of gross in the near term. Obviously, you talked about M&A. It sounds like you're undecided on the drilling partnership here. But just in terms of the M&A strategy other than undeveloped acreage are there opportunities to continue to pick up minerals, working interest? Are you generally trying to do this kind of ahead of the drill bit over the next kind of 12 to 24 months.

    我只是想就短期內如何在不增加毛利潤的情況下增加淨利潤這一概念再深入探討一下。顯然,你們談到了併購。聽起來你對這次的鑽井合作還沒決定。但就併購策略而言,除了未開發的土地之外,是否還有機會繼續收購礦產資源和作業權益?您一般是打算在接下來的 12 到 24 個月內提前做好這類準備工作嗎?

  • I mean you said that these three deals kind of came up recently, are you seeing just kind of more deals in the basin? Just want to get a little bit more color around some specifics on kind of the M&A strategy here and kind of growing the net without growing the gross.

    我的意思是,你剛剛說這三筆交易都是最近才達成的,你覺得盆地裡會有更多類似的交易嗎?我想更詳細地了解這裡的併購策略,以及如何在不增加毛利潤的情況下增加淨利潤。

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Yes, I think you hit on it. These are all small bolt-on transactions increasing interest. When we talk about gross versus net, all of our processing is full. I think we're at 106% of processing capacity all the FTEs fall. So on the liquid side, it's a challenge to grow growth because all the facilities are full.

    是的,我覺得你說對了。這些都是小額的附加交易,旨在提高市場興趣。當我們談到總額與淨額時,我們所有的處理流程都已完成。我認為我們的處理能力已經達到 106%,所有全職員工都下崗了。因此,在流動資金方面,成長面臨挑戰,因為所有設施都已滿載運轉。

  • So in order to grow that net, you have to look to the working interest and the royalty and all of these are highly free cash flow accretive. So that's where it heads that. So as they come up, we assess them and see if it makes sense based on that. And then like we've been talking about a lot on this call, the ability to grow the dry gas is really and then on regional demand on a local basis. And so that is an opportunity for growth there. But really just trying to grow the net and maintain the gross volumes.

    因此,為了增加淨收入,你必須專注於權益和特許權使用費,而所有這些都能大幅增加自由現金流。所以事情就朝著那個方向發展了。所以當這些問題出現時,我們會進行評估,並根據評估結果判斷是否合理。就像我們在這次電話會議上多次談到的那樣,提高乾氣產量的能力實際上取決於當地區域的需求。所以那裡存在著發展機會。但實際上,我只是想擴大淨利潤,維持毛利。

  • Leo Mariani - Analyst

    Leo Mariani - Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. And then you obviously highlighted a number of kind of operational records on the quarter with some very strong improvements in terms of frac stages and cycle times and everything. Can you just give us any thoughts on whether or not you think there's a decent amount, kind of more improvement to come here? Or do you think you're starting to kind of maybe bump up on some of the limits, I guess, 15 days in a row without stopping on the frac side? It seems like it may be hard to do a lot better than that.

    好的。那很有幫助。然後,您顯然重點介紹了本季度的一些營運記錄,在壓裂階段、週期時間等方面都有非常顯著的改進。您能否談談您的看法,您認為這裡是否還有相當大的進步空間?或者你覺得你可能開始有點接近某些極限了,例如連續15天不停地進行壓裂作業?看來很難做得比這更好了。

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Yes, if we continue that. So when you get those days, you're doing 16, 17, 18 stages a day, and we averaged 14.5% during the quarter. So we get more continuous pumping throughout, which is our goal. I think you could see that go a bit higher. But right now, I think if we had a pad and had this type of performance, you think average on the 15 stages kind of per day. So a little bit of improvement, but the 14.5 stages is really high.

    是的,如果我們繼續這樣下去的話。所以,當遇到這種情況時,你一天要完成 16、17、18 個階段,而我們該季度的平均完成率為 14.5%。這樣我們就能實現更持續的泵送,這正是我們的目標。我認為這個數字可能會再高一些。但就目前而言,我認為如果我們有一個訓練場地,並且能夠保持這樣的表現,想想看,平均每天要完成 15 個階段。所以略有進步,但 14.5 個階段真的太高了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kalei Akamine, Bank of America.

    卡雷‧阿卡明 (Kalei Akamine),美國銀行。

  • Kalei Akamine - Analyst

    Kalei Akamine - Analyst

  • Maybe to start, I'd like you to talk to slide number 5, when that illustrates the expansion of what you consider to be core in the Marcellus -- so activity in the East in areas like Waste and Tyler, that's been for bots for quite a while, and it's easy to see how that is now core. But activity to the South and the East has been a little bit less frequent. What gives you confidence that the core is expanding to those areas?

    首先,我想請您談談第 5 張幻燈片,它展示了您認為馬塞勒斯頁岩核心區域的擴張——東部地區,如 Waste 和 Tyler 等地的活動,機器人已經在那裡活動了相當長一段時間,很容易看出為什麼現在那裡是核心區域。但南部和東部的活動頻率稍低一些。是什麼讓你確信核心業務正在擴展到這些地區?

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Our recent well performance is -- we Tyler Wes, but it's also been in the kind of in the eastern portion of Rigan northern part of Gilman you look at some other competitors, and they've had good results down in the Gilmer Lewis area. So you've seen that. And then like we talked about on the dry gas, that's in Harrison Calin.

    我們最近的油井表現——我們泰勒·韋斯,但它也位於裡根東部和吉爾曼北部,你看看其他一些競爭對手,他們在吉爾默·劉易斯地區取得了不錯的成果。所以你已經看到了。然後就像我們之前討論過的干氣一樣,它位於哈里森卡林。

  • Kalei Akamine - Analyst

    Kalei Akamine - Analyst

  • Got it. Mike, I appreciate that. For the second question, I look at slide number 10 here. So gas demand has expanded across that pipeline fair way. So two questions. Pipes in that direction are quite full. Do you guys have visibility on maybe new FT opportunities to push more gas into that region? And then it feels like given the demand pull, there's increased competition in the Gulf to lock piece volumes down. Do you see any direct-to-consumer opportunities along this route that you could participate in?

    知道了。麥克,謝謝你。關於第二個問題,請看這裡的第 10 張投影片。因此,透過這條管道輸送的天然氣需求已經大幅增加。所以,我有兩個問題。那條方向的管道幾乎都滿了。你們是否了解是否有新的FT機會,可以向該地區輸送更多天然氣?而且,鑑於需求拉動,海灣地區的競爭似乎也在加劇,各方都在努力鎖定訂單量。您認為這條道路上是否存在您可以參與的直接面向消費者的機會?

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Yes. I think Justin, correct me like 2.1 Bcf a day going down into the Gulf and we've intentionally been floating like Brendan's comments suggested. We've carried this for quite some time. We're going to see where the actual basis goes. And when you look at these types of opportunities and demand growth, 25 Bcf a day, 17 of it being in the Gulf Coast or along that path. We think there will be a lot of opportunities, but I can let Jeff and on that.

    是的。賈斯汀,我想糾正我一下,每天有 21 億立方英尺的天然氣流入墨西哥灣,而我們一直有意地像布倫丹的評論所暗示的那樣漂浮在水面上。我們已經攜帶這個產品很久了。我們將拭目以待,看看實際的基礎會走向何方。當你審視這些類型的機會和需求成長時,你會發現每天需要 250 億立方英尺的天然氣,其中 170 億立方英尺來自墨西哥灣沿岸或沿線地區。我們認為會有很多機會,但我可以把這件事交給傑夫來決定。

  • Justin Fowler - Senior Vice President - Gas Marketing & Transportation

    Justin Fowler - Senior Vice President - Gas Marketing & Transportation

  • This is Justin Fowler. So the way we think about this, Mike and Brennan's previous comments, the local demand, if all these projects go forward, it's going to be there. So that's going to drain gas out of various local pipes, various local pools. And then to Mike's point, when you think about the Antero 2.1 or so Bcf itself, there was approximately 10 Bcf reversed over the years since the shale revolution took off. So right there, we're about 20% of that volume heading cells. And then when you really zoom in on some of our pipelines, which we're calling mid-path Antero owns rights pass those potential projects as well.

    這是賈斯汀·福勒。所以,根據我們之前對麥克和布倫南的評論以及當地需求的看法,如果所有這些項目都能推進,那麼需求就會存在。這樣一來,就會把當地各個管線和各個蓄水池裡的天然氣排空。再說麥克的觀點,想想 Antero 本身大約 21 億立方英尺的天然氣儲量,自頁岩氣革命興起以來,這些年來大約有 100 億立方英尺的天然氣被逆向輸送。所以,我們這裡就佔了大約 20% 的新聞標題欄位內容。然後,當你真正放大我們的一些管道時,我們稱之為中途管道,Antero 也擁有這些潛在項目的權利。

  • So we are evaluating different projects in Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, where we cross. And then to your point on just the LNG market, yes, the LNG groups are going to have to potentially start to lock in supply just as there will be scarcity across the summer season, winter season, et cetera, that could cause peak situation. So we have been talking to a lot of those groups as well.

    所以我們正在評估肯塔基州、田納西州、密西西比州等我們過境地區的不同項目。至於你提到的液化天然氣市場,是的,液化天然氣集團可能必須開始鎖定供應,因為夏季、冬季等季節都會出現短缺,這可能會導致供應高峰。所以我們也一直在和很多這樣的團體溝通。

  • But to Brendan's point, patients is key at the moment and there's a lot still to be developed. If I understood your first part of your question correctly, in terms of new capacity being added self-bond, it's just such high cost and any of those projects are going to be toward the end of the decade.

    但正如布倫丹所說,目前最重要的是患者,還有很多東西需要開發。如果我正確理解了你問題的第一部分,就增加自有資金的新產能而言,成本實在太高了,而且任何此類項目都將在十年末期才能完成。

  • So Antero is in a good situation here to continue to watch the basis locally and just that behavior locally. And then also just working with these various groups in the mid-path delivery points of those projects move forward.

    因此,Antero 目前處於有利地位,可以繼續關注本地市場及其行為。然後,也要與這些不同的團隊合作,推動這些專案的中期交付階段。

  • Brendan Krueger - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

    Brendan Krueger - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

  • And the only thing I would add just on the point about end users, there has seemed to be a bit of a shift in terms of the demand pull side of things when the basin took off. It was more of a producer push there has been a lot more significant interest from a demand pull perspective and folks wanting to get the actual supply due to some of that scarcity of supply that I think is starting to take hold in the market.

    關於最終用戶這一點,我唯一想補充的是,當盆地發展起來後,需求拉動方面似乎發生了一些變化。更多的是生產商的推動,從需求拉動的角度來看,人們的興趣更加濃厚,因為供應短缺的局面開始在市場上蔓延,人們希望獲得實際的供應。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

    尼爾梅塔,高盛集團。

  • Neil Mehta - Analyst

    Neil Mehta - Analyst

  • Yes. And my congratulations on stepping into the CEO role. I just love your perspective early on, it's been a couple of months now of just observations as you step into this new role. And the business has done very well over the last couple of years, particularly coming out of COVID. But what do you think the next frontiers are from a strategy perspective as you look to the next end of this decade?

    是的。恭喜您就任執行長一職。我非常欣賞你早期的見解,在你擔任這個新角色後的幾個月裡,我一直在觀察你。過去幾年,尤其是新冠疫情之後,公司發展得非常好。但從策略角度來看,展望本十年末,您認為下一個前沿領域是什麼?

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Yes, I think you saw that in the strategic initiatives. -- we have such a terrific asset and West Rock, some of the best rock in North America, definitely the best rock for liquids development in midstream access, midstream capacity, balance sheet, investment grade so it kind of ticks all the boxes and now the strategic initiatives going forward are just trying to enhance that, doing bolt-on acquisitions in West Virginia, trying to enhance our exposure there, some dry gas development we talked about that's a good opportunity for us and then using hedging as a tool that's one thing that, like I mentioned, we want to be countercyclical.

    是的,我想您在策略舉措中已經看到了這一點。 ——我們擁有如此優秀的資產,西岩油氣田,是北美最好的油氣田之一,絕對是中游油氣開發的最佳選擇,擁有良好的中游通道、產能、資產負債表和投資級評級,幾乎滿足了所有條件。現在,我們未來的策略舉措就是努力提升這些優勢,在西維吉尼亞州進行補充收購,擴大我們在那裡的業務。我們之前也提到過乾氣開發,這對我們來說是一個很好的機會。此外,我們也利用避險這項工具,正如我之前提到的,我們希望實現逆週期操作。

  • The only way to do that is to have some sort of certainty of cash flow there in low commodity price times. So -- that's kind of the next frontier that we're looking at, but we're excited about it. And I can mention, we are at the dominant position in West Virginia, so we should expand upon that.

    唯一的辦法就是在商品價格低迷時期確保一定的現金流。所以——這算是我們正在探索的下一個前沿領域,我們對此感到很興奮。我可以提一下,我們在西維吉尼亞州處於主導地位,所以我們應該在此基礎上擴大規模。

  • Neil Mehta - Analyst

    Neil Mehta - Analyst

  • Very clear, Mike. And then just wanted to go to the macro on NGLs. And as we walk to your pricing sheet, it's a tougher environment right now. I guess not so bad when you look at it as a percentage of TTI, but on an absolute basis, it's pretty challenging. So just talk about the path for recovery in 2016.

    很清楚,麥克。然後就想去看看 NGL 的巨集。當我們查看您的價格表時,會發現目前的市場環境更加艱難。如果以 TTI 的百分比來看,情況可能還不錯,但從絕對值來看,這相當具有挑戰性。所以,就談談2016年的復甦之路吧。

  • Do you think that recovery is going to be more supply driven or demand driven on the supply side? I saw you put out some interesting numbers in terms of volume growth, it's probably below where I think consensus is for volume growth in the Permian for NGLs next year. So is that not a consensus view that you guys have that we can offset sort of the prevailing view that even if black oil flat that NGLs will still be growing significantly.

    你認為經濟復甦在供給方面會更多是供給驅動還是需求驅動?我看到你公佈了一些關於產量成長的有趣數據,這可能低於我對明年二疊紀盆地天然氣凝液產量成長的普遍預期。所以,你們的共識是不是這樣:我們可以抵銷目前普遍存在的觀點,即即使黑油價格持平,天然氣凝液價格仍將大幅增加?

  • David Cannelongo - Senior Vice President - Liquids Marketing & Transportation

    David Cannelongo - Senior Vice President - Liquids Marketing & Transportation

  • Yes, Neal, this is Dave Cannelongo. I'll take that one. So I guess to your first question, I'm looking forward to 2026. Certainly, oil prices do play a key role in what happens with NGL pricing as you alluded to as a percentage of WTI, it's been improving here in 2025 despite some of the market headwinds that were out there. So we kind of look back at 2024 through the first nine months of the year, a little less than 54% WTI, 60% WTI here in 2025. So that really kind of speaks to the value for NGLs is still there, driven by rescom, in elasticity and pet-chem demand.

    是的,尼爾,這位是戴夫·坎內隆戈。我選那個。所以,對於你的第一個問題,我期待著2026年的到來。當然,正如您所提到的,石油價格確實對天然氣凝液 (NGL) 的價格走勢起著關鍵作用,以 WTI 原油價格的百分比來看,儘管存在一些市場不利因素,但 2025 年的 NGL 價格一直在改善。所以我們回顧 2024 年的前九個月,WTI 原油價格略低於 54%,而 2025 年 WTI 原油價格為 60%。所以這確實說明,在資源彈性以及石油化學需求的推動下,天然氣凝液仍然具有價值。

  • Looking forward to '26, obviously, we're very optimistic about the trade uncertainties getting resolved here. Obviously, some announcements here this morning that we think will certainly saw some of that. If you look back to what was being exported in particular to China prior to the tariff announcements in early April is around 600,000 barrels a day or a third of US LPG exports headed that direction of propane exports -- and in June, it was a little less than 100,000 barrels a day and since we do about 300. So certainly, some following there, but we'd like to see that continue to improve.

    展望2026年,我們顯然非常樂觀地認為貿易不確定性將會得到解決。顯然,今天早上發布的一些公告,我們認為肯定會帶來一些這樣的影響。回顧一下 4 月初關稅公告發布之前,特別是對華出口的情況,大約每天有 60 萬桶,或者說美國液化石油氣出口的三分之一流向了中國——而到了 6 月,這個數字略低於每天 10 萬桶,而我們每天的出口量約為 300 桶。所以,確實有一些人關注,但我們希望看到這種情況繼續改善。

  • That will help with efficiencies on freight pricing, which will also drive Mont Belview higher. So those are kind of the key things we're looking to. I don't know how long the world can sustain at something per barrel WTI as well. So we're -- you expect at some point, that's going to resolve itself and also become a tailwind for NGL prices on an absolute basis.

    這將有助於提高貨運定價效率,從而推高蒙特貝爾維尤的價格。所以,這些都是我們主要關注的面向。我也不知道世界還能以這樣的WTI原油價格維持多久。所以,我們預計在某個時候,這個問題會得到解決,並且從絕對意義上講,這也將成為天然氣凝液價格的利多因素。

  • Coming back to the supply picture and your questions on that, that view is a third-party view that we put in our presentation. I think that there's a lot of different groups that are out there. There's been some consolidation in the third-party analytical groups. So there aren't as many people out there providing views. It seems to be a belief around gas oil ratios increasing, and that really seems to be what's behind some of the higher NGL supply growth views.

    回到供應情況以及您提出的相關問題,這種觀點是我們簡報中呈現的第三方觀點。我認為存在著許多不同的團體。第三方分析機構出現了一些整合。所以,提供觀點的人並不多。人們似乎普遍認為柴油與石油的比例將會上升,而這似乎正是某些人對天然氣凝液供應成長持較高看法的原因。

  • But undoubtedly, I don't think anybody is disputing in this oil price environment and lower rig count environment. The NGL supply growth is going to be as strong as it was if you're looking at the chart in the prior years.

    但毫無疑問,在目前的油價和鑽井平台數量下降的環境下,我認為沒有人會對此提出異議。如果參考前幾年的圖表,NGL(天然氣凝液)的供應成長將與之前一樣強勁。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Paul Diamond, Citi.

    保羅戴蒙德,花旗銀行。

  • Paul Diamond - Analyst

    Paul Diamond - Analyst

  • Just wanted to touch quickly on kind of capital allocation, given current conditions. With your hedge book, you guys put out a pretty decent for under free cash flow next year and have used kind of evenly between stock repurchases, debt repayment and acquisitions. I guess in a -- in kind of a bull scenario, how much cash would you be willing to build if you want to really maintain kind of cyclicality assuming that you have limited debt to really buy back now? And if your stock starts to run, what level of cash is comfortable ?

    鑑於目前的情勢,我想簡單談談資本配置的問題。你們的對沖策略讓你們明年的自由現金流相當可觀,而且你們在股票回購、償還債務和收購之間實現了相當均衡的分配。我想,在牛市行情下,假設你現在可用於回購的債務有限,那麼如果你想真正保持週期性,你願意累積多少現金?如果你的股票開始暴跌,你覺得持有多少現金才算得上舒適。?

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Yes, that will be a good problem to have. But I think I mentioned earlier, we have $700 million of debt that we can pay down. Of course, we'd be buying shares all along that way as well. So in a real bull case scenario where you get into a couple of billion of free cash flow a year, you would start to build some cash, but I think you'd be unless you didn't really have any other transaction opportunities. I think you kind of be where we're at right now, where it's kind of like a third repay of debt or equity purchases and a third in transactions.

    是的,那將是一個幸福的煩惱。但我記得之前提到過,我們有7億美元的債務可以償還。當然,我們也會一路買入股票。所以,在真正的牛市情況下,如果你每年能獲得幾十億美元的自由現金流,你就會開始累積一些現金,但我認為,除非你真的沒有其他交易機會,否則你不會有現金累積。我認為你現在的情況和我們差不多,大概就是三分之一用於償還債務或股權購買,三分之一用於交易。

  • Paul Diamond - Analyst

    Paul Diamond - Analyst

  • Got it. And just kind of switching to the other side of that coin. Some of your peers have really started to do production management, whether the curtailments or choking or anything along those lines. Given your FTI know it's less of an opportunity for you, but just wanted to see if you saw how Antero would play in that on the margins. Is that something you have worked into or ?

    知道了。然後就有點像是從硬幣的另一面來看問題了。你們的一些同行已經開始真正進行生產管理了,無論是削減產量、限制產量還是其他類似的措施。鑑於你的 FTI 值,我知道這對你來說機會不多,但我只是想看看你是否認為 Antero 會在邊緣地帶發揮作用。這是你已經努力的方向嗎??

  • Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    Michael Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Well, when we do it, we just don't talk about it. It's already built into kind of our guidance, and it's really kind of -- they may say it's curtailment practices, but I think it's really economics based and the gas prices are low in the basin. So it would make economic sense to flow to that. When that all that occurs, which is rare, like you mentioned with the SP and the liquids, we don't really have that much local basis exposure, but we do have it from time to time, but we are always fill that in the risking of our guidance.

    嗯,我們做這件事的時候,根本不會談論它。這已經納入了我們的指導方針中,而且實際上——他們可能會說這是減產措施,但我認為這實際上是基於經濟因素的,而且盆地內的天然氣價格很低。所以從經濟角度來看,朝那個方向流動是合理的。就像你提到的標普500指數和液體期貨那樣,這種情況很少發生,我們實際上並沒有太多的本地基差風險敞口,但我們偶爾也會遇到這種情況,不過我們總是會在指導意見的風險評估中考慮到這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. So I'll turn the floor back to Dan Katzenberg for closing remarks.

    謝謝。女士們、先生們,目前沒有其他問題了。那麼,我將把發言權交還給丹·卡岑伯格,讓他做總結發言。

  • Daniel Katzenberg - Director - Finance and Investor Relations

    Daniel Katzenberg - Director - Finance and Investor Relations

  • Thank you, and thanks, everyone, for joining the call today. Please feel free to reach out with any questions that you have. Have a good day.

    謝謝大家,也謝謝各位今天參加電話會議。如有任何疑問,請隨時與我們聯繫。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's call. All parties may disconnect. Have a good day.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。所有參與者均可中斷連線。祝你有美好的一天。