Antero Resources Corp (AR) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to the Antero Resources second-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.

問候並歡迎參加 Antero Resources 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I will now turn the conference over to our host, Brendan Krueger, Vice President of Finance. Thank you. You may begin.

現在，我將會議交給主持人、財務副總裁 Brendan Krueger。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning. Thank you for joining us for Antero's second-quarter 2025 investor conference call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operating highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteroresources.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

早安.感謝您參加 Antero 2025 年第二季投資者電話會議。我們將花幾分鐘時間介紹財務和營運亮點，然後進行問答。我還想將您引導至我們網站的主頁 www.anteroresources.com，我們在那裡提供了單獨的收益電話會議演示文稿，將在今天的電話會議上進行審查。

Today's call may contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議可能包含某些非公認會計準則財務指標。請參閱我們的收益新聞稿，以了解有關此類指標的重要揭露，包括與最具可比性的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳。

Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman, CEO and President; Michael Kennedy, CFO; Dave Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing and Transportation; and Justin Fowler, Senior Vice President of Natural Gas Marketing.

今天參加電話會議的還有董事長、首席執行官兼總裁保羅·拉迪 (Paul Rady)、首席財務官邁克爾·肯尼迪 (Michael Kennedy)、液體營銷和運輸高級副總裁戴夫·卡內隆戈 (Dave Cannelongo) 和天然氣營銷高級副總裁賈斯汀·福勒 (Justin Fowler)。

I will now turn the call over to Paul.

現在我將把電話轉給保羅。

Thank you, Brandon, and good morning, everyone. Let's start on slide number 3 titled Efficiencies Reduce Maintenance Capital, which highlights the tangible benefit of our best-in-class capital efficiency. For the second consecutive year, we have increased our production guidance while decreasing CapEx.

謝謝你，布蘭登，大家早安。讓我們從第三張幻燈片開始，標題為“效率降低維護資本”，它強調了我們一流的資本效率所帶來的實際利益。連續第二年，我們提高了生產指導，同時減少了資本支出。

Looking at the chart on the left side of the slide, since the year 2023, our maintenance production target has increased 5% from under 3.3 Bcf equivalent per day to over 3.4 Bcf equivalent a day. During that same time, our maintenance capital requirements declined by 26% from $900 million to $663 million.

查看投影片左側的圖表，自 2023 年以來，我們的維持生產目標已從每天不到 33 億立方英尺當量增加 5% 至每天超過 34 億立方英尺當量。在同一時期，我們的維護資本需求下降了 26%，從 9 億美元下降到 6.63 億美元。

The chart on the right-hand side of the slide highlights this capital efficiency relative to our peers. Antero has the lowest maintenance cap per Mcfe of its peer group at just $0.53 per Mcfe. This is 27% below the peer average of $0.73 per Mcfe.

投影片右側的圖表突顯了相對於同行的資本效率。Antero 的每 Mcfe 維護上限是同類產品中最低的，僅為每 Mcfe 0.53 美元。這比同行平均每 Mcfe 0.73 美元低 27%。

Now let's turn to slide number 4 to discuss our updated hedges. During the quarter, we added additional wide natural gas costless collars for the year 2026. These wide collars lock in attractive rates of return with a floor price of $3.14 and a ceiling of $6.31. With these new hedges in place, we have hedged approximately 20% of our expected natural gas volumes through 2026.

現在讓我們翻到投影片 4 來討論一下更新後的避險。本季度，我們增加了 2026 年額外的寬天然氣免費領子。這些寬額度選擇權鎖定了頗具吸引力的收益率，最低價格為3.14美元，最高價格為6.31美元。透過這些新的避險措施，我們已對沖了約20%的預期天然氣產量（截至2026年）。

Our hedge book allows us to protect the downside while maintaining significant exposure to rising natural gas prices. These hedges lower our 2026 free cash flow breakeven to $1.75 per Mcf.

我們的對沖帳簿使我們能夠保護下行風險，同時保持對不斷上漲的天然氣價格的顯著敞口。這些對沖將我們 2026 年的自由現金流損益平衡點降低至每千立方英尺 1.75 美元。

Now to touch on the current liquids and NGL fundamentals. I'm going to turn it over to our Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing and Transportation, Dave Cannelongo, for his comments. Dave?

現在來談談目前液體和 NGL 的基本面。我將把它交給我們的液體行銷和運輸高級副總裁 Dave Cannelongo 來徵求他的意見。戴夫？

Thanks, Paul. I'll start on slide number 5 titled NGL Pricing Premium. During the second quarter, Antero's realized C3+ cost price averaged $37.92 per barrel. Looking ahead, we continue to expect realizations to be at attractive premiums to the NGL benchmark in the second half of the year.

謝謝，保羅。我將從第 5 張投影片「NGL 定價溢價」開​​始。第二季度，Antero 實現的 C3+ 成本價格平均為每桶 37.92 美元。展望未來，我們仍預期今年下半年的實現價格將高於 NGL 基準。

As a reminder, these differentials are firm in our existing term agreements, and therefore, we have high confidence that differentials will improve going into the third and fourth quarters of this year as winter heating and gasoline blending season ramp up. Additionally, our domestic basis improves for butane beginning in September and for propane beginning in October.

提醒一下，這些差異在我們現有的定期協議中是固定的，因此，我們非常有信心，隨著冬季供暖和汽油混合季節的到來，差異將在今年第三季和第四季得到改善。此外，從 9 月開始，我們國內丁烷的基礎有所改善，從 10 月開始，丙烷的基礎也有所改善。

Although we reduced our full year NGL price guidance slightly, this was primarily a reflection of our second-quarter actuals that was impacted by inventory adjustments. We continue to expect premiums in the second half of this year to average in the range of $1.50 to $2.50 per barrel, with the fourth quarter anticipated to realize the strongest premium of the year.

儘管我們略微下調了全年 NGL 價格預期，但這主要反映了我們第二季的實際情況受到了庫存調整的影響。我們繼續預計今年下半年溢價平均在每桶 1.50 美元至 2.50 美元之間，預計第四季將實現今年最高溢價。

I will also point out that Antero's C3+ realizations improved year-over-year as a percentage of WTI, showing strengthening underlying fundamentals in NGL markets. In the second quarter of 2025, Antero's C3+ realizations averaged 59% of WTI, compared to the second quarter of 2024 when realizations were 50% of WTI.

我還要指出的是，Antero 的 C3+ 實現量佔 WTI 的百分比同比有所提高，表明 NGL 市場的基本面正在增強。2025 年第二季度，Antero 的 C3+ 實現量平均為 WTI 的 59%，而 2024 年第二季度的實現量為 WTI 的 50%。

On the export side, Antero has locked in a substantial portion of our export volume at double-digit premiums to Mont Belvieu, and we continue to benefit from those deals. As we've talked about in prior earnings calls, when dock capacity is viewed as sufficient and export premiums are modest, benchmark NGL prices typically rise. This was clearly evident during the second quarter, as reflected in the relative NGL strength versus WTI.

在出口方面，Antero 已以兩位數的溢價鎖定了我們出口量的很大一部分給 Mont Belvieu，並且我們將繼續從這些交易中受益。正如我們在先前的收益電話會議上所討論的那樣，當碼頭容量充足且出口溢價適中時，基準 NGL 價格通常會上漲。這在第二季度表現得非常明顯，體現在 NGL 相對於 WTI 的相對強勢上。

We anticipate the new trade deals signed in the coming weeks and months will increase confidence in the reliability of US LPG supply and help strengthen export volumes and benchmark pricing further. Uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations had a significant transitory impact on the global NGL market during the quarter. For LPG, the market saw a shift in trade flows with relatively more US barrels going to Japan, South Korea and Indonesia, and China sourcing more LPG from the Middle East and Canada.

我們預計未來幾週和幾個月簽署的新貿易協定將增強人們對美國液化石油氣供應可靠性的信心，並有助於進一步加強出口量和基準定價。貿易談判的不確定性對本季全球 NGL 市場產生了重大的暫時影響。對於液化石油氣而言，市場貿易流向發生了變化，相對而言更多的美國石油流向了日本、韓國和印度尼西亞，而中國則從中東和加拿大購買了更多的液化石油氣。

These changes were largely anticipated by the market as we discussed on last quarter's earnings call. Despite the destination reshuffling, overall US propane exports remained strong and increased year over year. Exports have averaged over 1.8 million barrels per day, which is 6% higher than the same period last year.

正如我們在上個季度的收益電話會議上所討論的那樣，這些變化在很大程度上是市場所預料到的。儘管目的地發生了變化，但美國丙烷出口總體依然強勁，且同比增長。出口量平均每天超過180萬桶，比去年同期高出6%。

As shown on slide number 6, titled New Capacity to Increase Exports, new Gulf Coast export capacity that has just been placed in service is expected to lead to higher exports, a rebalancing of inventories and further strengthening of Mont Belvieu NGL prices.

如幻燈片 6 所示，標題為“新產能將增加出口”，剛投入使用的墨西哥灣沿岸新出口產能預計將帶來出口增加、庫存重新平衡以及蒙特貝爾維尤 NGL 價格進一步走強。

With that, I'll now turn it over to our Senior Vice President of Natural Gas Marketing, Justin Fowler to discuss the natural gas market.

現在，我將把話題交給我們的天然氣行銷高級副總裁賈斯汀·福勒 (Justin Fowler) 來討論天然氣市場。

Thanks, Dave. We continue to see the positive demand trends for natural gas both near term and long term. Starting first with the near-term demand growth, the first half of 2025 saw a significantly faster ramp at Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG facility. This July, the facility achieved a daily record for feed gas of over 2.9 Bcf per day, which represents 120% of Phase 1 nameplate capacity. Now Venture Global is starting LNG production at Phase 2 of the terminal, which will increase nameplate capacity to 3.6 Bcf.

謝謝，戴夫。我們繼續看到短期和長期天然氣需求的正面趨勢。首先從近期需求成長開始，2025 年上半年 Venture Global 的 Plaquemines LNG 設施的需求成長速度將顯著加快。今年 7 月，該設施的日原料氣產量創下了超過 29 億立方英尺的紀錄，達到第一階段額定產能的 120%。目前，Venture Global 正在該終端第二期開始生產液化天然氣，這將使額定產能增加至 36 億立方英尺。

This initial production is ahead of prior expectations with full Phase 2 in service expected in late 2025. This accelerated ramp has led to higher demand along our TGP 500 Leg firm transport and driven a higher premium at that delivery point relative to Henry Hub.

初期產量超出了先前的預期，第二階段預計將於 2025 年底全面投入使用。這種加速成長導致我們 TGP 500 Leg 公司運輸的需求增加，並導致該交貨點相對於亨利港的溢價更高。

As shown on slide number 7, titled Not All Transport to the US Gulf Coast is Equal. Maintenance along the pipeline restricted the amount of volume that captured that premium during the second quarter. However, we anticipate our premium realizations will improve in the second half of 2025 and in 2026. As a reminder, Antero has 570 MMcf a day of capacity on the TGP 500 Leg.

如投影片 7 所示，標題為「並非所有通往美國墨西哥灣沿岸的運輸都是平等的」。管道沿線的維護限制了第二季度獲得溢價的運輸量。不過，我們預計我們的保費實現將在 2025 年下半年和 2026 年有所改善。提醒一下，Antero 在 TGP 500 航線的日輸送能力為 570 MMcf。

Slide number 8 gives a bit further into the LNG market. Over the next 30 months, LNG demand is expected to increase by another 8 Bcf a day, driven by the start-up of Plaquemines Phase 2, Golden Pass, Corpus Christi and Calcasieu Pass Phase 2. Combined with the continued power demand growth, the natural gas market is expected to be materially undersupplied during this period, which we expect to support higher prices next year.

第 8 張投影片進一步介紹了液化天然氣市場。未來 30 個月，受普拉克明二期、金色山口、科珀斯克里斯蒂和卡爾克蘇山口二期計畫啟動的推動，液化天然氣需求預計每天將增加 80 億立方英尺。加上電力需求持續成長，預計天然氣市場在此期間將出現嚴重供應不足，我們預計這將支撐明年價格上漲。

Now let's shift topics from near-term LNG demand to the medium-term Appalachia regional power demand trends. Turning to slide number 9 titled Regional Natural Gas Demand, the first version of this slide was created for our first quarter earnings call in April. At that time, approximately 3 Bcf of regional power demand had been announced. A short 90 days later, we are now up to almost 5 Bcf of announced projects within our region. While we certainly acknowledge there's a lot of work to be done, we anticipate the acceleration in power demand announcements to continue, resulting in significant opportunities for Antero.

現在讓我們將話題從近期的液化天然氣需求轉移到中期阿巴拉契亞地區電力需求趨勢。前往第 9 張投影片，標題為“區域天然氣需求”，該投影片的第一個版本是為我們 4 月的第一季財報電話會議創建的。當時，已宣布該地區的電力需求約為30億立方英尺。短短 90 天后，我們所在地區宣布的項目數量已接近 50 億立方英尺。雖然我們確實承認還有很多工作要做，但我們預計電力需求公告的加速成長將持續，這將為 Antero 帶來重大機會。

Antero remains advantaged in this power demand story with our extensive resource base, integrated midstream assets and investment-grade balance sheet. Through our firm transportation to the US Gulf Coast, we are uniquely positioned as the only natural gas company that can meaningfully participate in both the LNG export growth strategy and the expected regional power demand growth.

憑藉豐富的資源基礎、綜合的中游資產和投資等級資產負債表，Antero 在電力需求方面仍佔優勢。憑藉我們向美國墨西哥灣沿岸的穩固運輸，我們成為唯一一家能夠有效參與液化天然氣出口成長策略和預期區域電力需求成長的天然氣公司。

With that, I will turn it over to Mike Kennedy, CFO of Antero Resources.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給 Antero Resources 的財務長 Mike Kennedy。

Thanks, Justin. We continue to execute on our plan while doing so in a more capital-efficient manner. During the second quarter, this execution led to $260 million of free cash flow, nearly $200 million of which we used to reduce debt. Once again, we continued our opportunistic share repurchases, accelerating our buybacks during periods, and the stock does not reflect the underlying fundamentals. This was highlighted by our activity April through July when our average share repurchase price came in at an 8% discount to the volume-weighted average price during that same period.

謝謝，賈斯汀。我們將繼續執行我們的計劃，同時以更具資本效率的方式進行。在第二季度，這項執行帶來了 2.6 億美元的自由現金流，其中近 2 億美元用於減少債務。我們再次繼續機會性股票回購，在特定時期加速回購，但股票並未反映出基本面。我們從 4 月到 7 月的活動就凸顯了這一點，當時我們的平均股票回購價格比同期的成交量加權平均價格低 8%。

Our return of capital strategy is anchored by our low absolute debt position that provides us with substantial flexibility. With this flexibility, we can pivot between share buybacks or debt reduction depending on market conditions. Year-to-date, we have now reduced total debt by 30% or $400 million while also repurchasing $150 million of shares.

我們的資本回報策略以較低的絕對債務狀況為基礎，這為我們提供了相當大的靈活性。有了這種靈活性，我們可以根據市場狀況在股票回購或債務削減之間進行調整。年初至今，我們已將總債務減少了 30% 或 4 億美元，同時也回購了價值 1.5 億美元的股票。

Let's turn to slide number 10 titled Antero Has the Highest Exposure to NYMEX-Linked Pricing. Justin already highlighted the significant demand that is coming later this year and continuing through the end of this decade. We expect regional pricing will remain volatile, with sustained periods trading at a steep discount to NYMEX due to pipeline constraints and seasonality impacts. This chart highlights Antero's peer-leading exposure to NYMEX.

讓我們翻到第 10 張投影片，標題為《Antero 對 NYMEX 掛鉤定價的曝光率最高》。賈斯汀已經強調了今年晚些時候將會出現並持續到本世紀末的巨大需求。我們預計區域價格將保持波動，由於管道限制和季節性影響，交易價格將持續大幅低於紐約商業交易所 (NYMEX)。該圖表突出顯示了 Antero 對 NYMEX 的領先同行敞口。

While all of our peers forecast to realize prices well back of NYMEX due to in-basin exposure, we expect realized prices at a premium to NYMEX. Looking forward, we plan to continue to target maintenance capital at future growth opportunities from regional demand increases. Any future growth would be tied to a direct demand at attractive prices. Given our firm transportation capacity that sells our natural gas at premium to NYMEX, we are unlikely to spend growth capital for in-basin pricing.

儘管我們所有的同業都預測由於盆地內風險的影響，實際價格將遠低於紐約商業交易所 (NYMEX)，但我們預計實際價格將高於紐約商業交易所 (NYMEX)。展望未來，我們計劃繼續將維護資本瞄準區域需求成長帶來的未來成長機會。未來的任何成長都將與具有吸引力的價格的直接需求息息相關。鑑於我們穩固的運輸能力，以溢價向紐約商業交易所出售天然氣，我們不太可能花費成長資本進行盆地內定價。

Slide number 11 illustrates that over the last 10 years, any regional basis tightening has been short-lived, given robust Appalachia supply and pipeline takeaway constraints. However, if regional [amendments] lead to a sustained improvement in in-basin pricing, we have over 10 years of dry gas drilling inventory where we could accelerate activity to grow volumes in a short time frame and capture that higher regional pricing.

第 11 張幻燈片顯示，在過去 10 年中，由於阿巴拉契亞山脈供應充足以及管道輸送限制，任何區域基礎緊縮都是短暫的。然而，如果區域[修正案]導致盆地內定價持續改善，我們擁有超過 10 年的乾氣鑽井庫存，我們可以加快活動以在短時間內增加產量並獲得更高的區域定價。

With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

說完這些，我現在將電話轉給接線生來回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）摩根大通的 Arun Jayaram。

Maybe for Dave. Dave, I wanted to see if you could maybe elaborate on slide 6 where we're going to see some additions to Gulf Coast LPG export capacity. Your thoughts on the implications for Mont Belvieu pricing and just the international versus Mont Belvieu spread next year and how this will maybe shape some of your marketing efforts.

也許對戴夫來說。戴夫，我想看看你是否可以詳細說明第 6 張幻燈片，我們將從中看到墨西哥灣沿岸液化石油氣出口能力的一些增加。您對 Mont Belvieu 定價的影響以及明年國際市場與 Mont Belvieu 市場的價差有何看法，以及這可能會如何影響您的一些行銷工作。

Yes, Arun, we've seen this dynamic play out a few times, as you see in the chart, going back to 2020, 2021 where you have a sizable build-out, new export capacity. And we've talked about in the past, during those times, you see the dock premiums be fairly modest and tied to Mont Belvieu pricing. But the result of that is Mont Belvieu as closely linked to the international price as it can be. And so that's what we expect with the build-out that you see there from parties just there through 2026. And obviously, there's another consortium that's working on another large export project in the Gulf.

是的，阿倫，正如您在圖表中所見，我們已經看到過這種動態多次，可以追溯到 2020 年、2021 年，當時有相當大的建設和新的出口能力。我們過去曾討論過，在那些時候，你會看到碼頭保費相當適中並且與 Mont Belvieu 定價掛鉤。但結果是，貝爾維尤山的價格與國際價格盡可能緊密地連結在一起。這就是我們對 2026 年各方建設的預期。顯然，還有另一個財團正在海灣地區進行另一個大型出口計畫。

So a significant amount of export dock capacity coming online in the US really should debottleneck us for the foreseeable future. As a result of that, I think the premiums of the docks will be more modest going forward, but we'll see overall higher benchmark as a result, which, for Antero, with the domestic exposure that we have, in the end, higher Mont Belvieu prices is net-net better for us than [strong arms].

因此，美國大量出口碼頭容量的投入使用確實應該會在可預見的未來緩解我們的瓶頸。因此，我認為未來碼頭的溢價會更加溫和，但我們會看到整體基準價格會更高，對於 Antero 來說，考慮到我們在國內的敞口，最終，更高的 Mont Belvieu 價格對我們來說比[強壯的臂膀]。

Got it. And maybe one for Mike. You guys continue to kind of walk and chew gum in terms of reducing -- you're already low debt balances and buy back stock. Based on your view, Mike and Paul, of the fundamental picture, how do you gauge the mix of maybe buybacks and debt reduction going forward?

知道了。也許還有一個給麥克。你們在減少債務餘額和回購股票方面繼續採取類似行動——你們的債務餘額已經很低了。麥克和保羅，根據你們對基本面的看法，你們如何衡量未來回購和減債的組合？

Sure, Arun. We came into the year thinking that the first $600 million of the free cash flow is going to be used to reduce debt. Then we saw some market dislocations over the past four or five months, which really the Antero Resources stock price is not reflecting our strong fundamentals. So we took advantage of that and started to buy back early.

當然，阿倫。我們今年開始考慮將自由現金流的前 6 億美元用於減少債務。然後，我們看到過去四、五個月出現了一些市場混亂，實際上 Antero Resources 的股價並沒有反映出我們強勁的基本面。因此我們利用了這一點並提前開始回購。

We'll continue to do that, be opportunistic. We continue to want to reduce debt. We're at $1.1 billion. We'd like to reduce that further, of course. But also, there's continued dislocations in the stock. We'll continue to buy that. So it's kind of a mix, just depending on market conditions. But we are happy to be able to buy in stock where we have so far this year.

我們將繼續這樣做，抓住機會。我們繼續希望減少債務。我們的金額是 11 億美元。當然，我們希望進一步減少這個數字。但同時，股票市場也持續出現混亂。我們會繼續購買。所以這是一種混合，取決於市場條件。但我們很高興能夠購買今年迄今的庫存。

John Freeman, Raymond James.

約翰‧弗里曼、雷蒙‧詹姆斯。

You highlighted the last few years you've been able to meaningfully reduce the maintenance CapEx while still moving the production higher. Just at a high level, just how we should think about maybe 2026, do you all have the ability directionally to keep pushing that maintenance CapEx lower?

您強調，過​​去幾年您已經能夠大幅降低維護資本支出，同時仍能提高產量。從高層次來看，我們該如何考慮 2026 年，你們是否有能力定向地繼續降低維護資本支出？

Yes. Yes, we do. This year, I think our well costs are down 3% year-over-year, and we continue to drill them in a quick -- and complete them in a very quick fashion. That 3% decline, and that's on a per foot basis, is actually on a bit shorter laterals than is typical for us. We're kind of more in the 13,000-foot range this year. But that returns next year more to the 14,000- and 15,000-foot range.

是的。是的，我們有。今年，我認為我們的油井成本比去年同期下降了 3%，而且我們繼續以快速的方式進行鑽探和完井。以每英尺計算的 3% 的下降幅度實際上比我們通常的水平段要短一些。今年我們的高度更接近 13,000 英尺。但明年這一高度將進一步上升至 14,000 至 15,000 英尺的範圍。

So just assuming all things equal, service costs equal, no more efficiencies, which I don't expect to happen, that would lead to a further 3% decline in well cost next year. So our well costs continue to decline and we continue to drill them faster. And so I think that continues into '26.

因此，只要假設所有條件相同、服務成本相同、不再提高效率（我預計這種情況不會發生），這將導致明年油井成本進一步下降 3%。因此，我們的鑽井成本持續下降，而且我們的鑽井速度也持續加快。所以我認為這種情況會持續到 26 年。

That's great. And then my follow-up question, some of your peers this earnings season have talked about kind of the pretty big uplift to cash flow due to the tax impact, the recent tax changes. Are you all able to sort of talk to that?

那太棒了。然後我的後續問題是，在這個收益季，您的一些同行談到了由於稅收影響和最近的稅收變化導致的現金流大幅提升。你們能談論一下這個嗎？

Yes. We have a similar uplift from that as well. We have a lot of tax attributes, a lot of NOLs from the past, a lot of R&D tax credits. But with the new bill, you're able to expense all of the R&D expenses without some limitations. There's better interest expense treatment. It's 30% of EBITDA versus EBIT also 100% bonus depreciation on lease and well equipment.

是的。我們也因此獲得了類似的提升。我們有很多稅收屬性，很多過去的 NOL，很多研發稅收抵免。但根據新法案，您可以毫無限制地報銷所有研發費用。有更好的利息費用處理。這是 EBITDA 與 EBIT 的 30%，也是租賃和井設備的 100% 獎金折舊。

So you combine all that with our -- the tax attributes that we carried forward. And we do not expect to pay any material cash taxes for the next three years, so it's pushed out at least until 2028 based on today's commodity prices.

因此，將所有這些與我們結轉的稅收屬性結合起來。而且我們預計未來三年不會支付任何實質的現金稅，因此根據今天的商品價格，它至少會推遲到 2028 年。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特（Doug Leggate），沃爾夫研究公司。

Actually, I wonder if I could just follow up on the last questions very quickly. I want to make sure we understand this correctly. And so you can understand the context, one of your large peers talked about 10 years of significant deferred tax. Is it fair to say that you guys are not subject to the AMT, the corporate alternative minimum tax, which basically means that the treatment is probably a little different? Or is that -- am I thinking about that -- am I thinking about that the wrong way?

實際上，我想知道我是否可以快速跟進最後一個問題。我想確保我們正確理解這一點。因此您可以了解一下背景，您的一位大型同行談到了 10 年的大幅遞延稅款。可以這麼說嗎？你們不受 AMT（企業替代最低稅）的約束，這基本上意味著待遇可能有點不同？或者那是——我是否在思考這個問題——我是否以錯誤的方式思考這個問題？

Yes, we're not subject to AMT. We're aware of the treatment. We don't qualify. I think you have to have a three-year average of $1 billion of PI. So we're not in that bucket.

是的，我們不受 AMT 約束。我們知道治療方法。我們沒有資格。我認為你必須擁有三年平均 10 億美元的 PI。所以我們不屬於這一類。

This bill also makes IDCs deductible for AMT purposes. So that's further help, so that may be what they're suggesting. But we are not subject to AMT and do not forecast to be subject to AMT.

該法案還規定 IDC 可在 AMT 中扣除。所以這是進一步的幫助，所以這可能是他們的建議。但我們不受 AMT 約束，且不預測會受到 AMT 約束。

That's very helpful. That wasn't actually my primary question. I'm just opportunistic given the last one. But my primary question is actually back to the sustaining capital issue. We've watched this from afar for quite some time get better every year.

這非常有幫助。這實際上不是我的主要問題。鑑於最後一個，我只是一個機會主義者。但我的主要問題其實又回到了維持資本問題。我們已經遠遠地觀察了很長一段時間，每年都在不斷改善。

My question is, is there anything on mix here that is changing as it relates to what you're targeting as perhaps the macro gets a little better on the gas side as opposed to on the liquid side. And I guess my end-goal here is to try and figure out how much -- is that like a target or a level you can say we think it can get to this level on a sustaining basis going forward? Any color on the magnitude of any continued improvement would be really helpful.

我的問題是，這裡的混合物中是否有任何變化，因為它與你的目標有關，因為也許氣體方面的宏觀情況比液體方面的宏觀情況要好一些。我想我的最終目標是嘗試弄清楚——這是一個目標還是一個水平？我們認為它可以在未來持續達到這個水平嗎？任何有關持續改進程度的詳細資訊都將非常有幫助。

Yes. Actually, maintenance capital should continue to improve, everything else equal. I mentioned the lateral length. But also every year you have maintenance capital, your decline rate comes down. I think we're in the low 20% now, every year it ticks down by about 1%. So when you actually look in the out years to maintain this, you're below where we're at, you continue to go lower each year. So that should continue.

是的。實際上，在其他條件相同的情況下，維護資本應該會繼續改善。我提到了橫向長度。但每年你都有維護資本，你的衰退率就會下降。我認為我們現在處於 20% 的低位，每年下降約 1%。因此，當你真正展望未來幾年如何維持這一水平時，你會發現你的水平低於我們現在的水平，而且每年都在繼續下降。所以這種情況應該要繼續下去。

On target mix, we continue to favor the liquids, 1,275. We had some DUC dry gas pads or lean gas pads that we completed in late first quarter and early third quarter, which has that mix, at least to condensate a bit off, but that should return to kind of in that high around 10,000 barrels a day in Q4 with liquids the same.

在目標組合上，我們繼續青睞液體，1,275。我們在第一季末和第三季初完成了一些 DUC 乾氣墊或貧氣墊，其中含有這種混合物，至少凝析油有點脫落，但到第四季度，這種產量應該會回到每天 10,000 桶左右的高位，液體產量也一樣。

So the mix, really just continue to target 1,275 Btu. But our maintenance capital continues to tick lower, not only from our capital efficiencies, but from longer laterals and also lower declines.

因此，混合實際上只是繼續以 1,275 Btu 為目標。但我們的維護資本持續下降，不僅是因為我們的資本效率，還因為水平段更長以及下降幅度更小。

That's a great message.

這是一個很棒的訊息。

Greta Drefke, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的格雷塔·德雷夫克。

I first just wanted to touch on hedging here a little bit given that you leaned into some more collars this quarter. Given the volatility of the forward curve that we've seen in the past couple of months, what's your current view on potentially layering in incremental hedges in 2026 or 2027 if the forward curve does give you that opportunity?

首先，我想稍微談談對沖，因為本季你們傾向於採用更多的領子策略。鑑於我們在過去幾個月中看到的遠期曲線的波動性，如果遠期曲線確實為您提供了這樣的機會，您目前對在 2026 年或 2027 年分層增加對沖的可能性有何看法？

Good question. So '26 was unique. Never seen in my career where you could get a 2:1 call skew on a contango curve that's a $1 higher in the front. So we took advantage of that. We had lean gas pads that I just mentioned, but we also have some lean gas pads going forward.

好問題。所以 26 年是獨一無二的。在我的職業生涯中，從未見過在期貨溢價曲線上出現 2:1 的看漲期權傾斜度，而期貨溢價曲線前端的價格比期貨溢價曲線高出 1 美元。所以我們利用了這一點。我們有我剛才提到的稀薄氣墊，但我們將來也會有一些稀薄氣墊。

So we wanted to lock in. That was kind of the original program. We've added to that in the second quarter, now up to 500 million a day, just opportunistic, putting in the $3.25 downside to $7 upside.

所以我們想要鎖定。那是一種原始程式。我們在第二季度又增加了這一數量，現在每天的數量已達到 5 億，這只是一個機會，將下行空間從 3.25 美元增加到 7 美元。

So that was attractive. If that dynamic would present itself in '27, that would be something we're interested in. But we have low debt. We don't have any in-basin price exposure. We have the lowest maintenance capital.

所以這很有吸引力。如果這種動態在 27 年出現，那將是我們所感興趣的事情。但我們的負債很低。我們沒有任何盆地內價格風險。我們的維護資本最低。

So it's not something that's needed. But if you get those type of dynamics in the gas market, it seems prudent to put some hedges on. We're only 20% hedged, but have upside to $7. That was a good trade.

所以這不是需要的東西。但如果天然氣市場出現這種動態，採取一些對沖措施似乎是明智之舉。我們僅對沖了 20%，但上漲空間達到 7 美元。這是一筆很好的交易。

Great. I appreciate that color. And then just touch on capital returns a little bit more. As you continue to make progress on deleveraging while also returning cash to shareholders through buybacks, is there a debt level or leverage point at which you would consider ramping up Antero's return of capital maybe towards 75% or so?

偉大的。我很欣賞那個顏色。然後再稍微談談資本回報。隨著你們繼續在去槓桿方面取得進展，同時透過回購向股東返還現金，是否存在一個債務水平或槓桿點，你會考慮將 Antero 的資本回報率提高到 75% 左右？

Yes, we ramp up really on the stock price compared to underlying fundamentals. We're now in a position where we could use all of our free cash flow to do that if that was an opportunity for us. We do want to have -- continue to have lower debt. We do have a 2030 note that it's $600 million at 5 3/8. So that's a good piece of paper. We'd like to keep that in our capital structure.

是的，與基本面相比，我們的股價確實上漲了。如果有機會的話，我們現在可以利用所有的自由現金流來實現這一目標。我們確實希望繼續降低債務。我們確實有一張 2030 年的鈔票，面額為 6 億美元，利率為 5 3/8。所以這是一篇好論文。我們希望將其保留在我們的資本結構中。

So we only really have $500 million of debt that we would pay down right now. So it will just depend on market conditions, but we're very happy to continue to accelerate our share buyback and actually go higher if there's an opportunity.

因此，我們現在實際上只需要償還 5 億美元的債務。所以這只取決於市場狀況，但如果有機會，我們很高興繼續加快股票回購，並且實際上會進一步提高。

David Deckelbaum, Cowen.

大衛‧德克爾鮑姆，考恩。

Mike, not to belabor the point, but maybe just like if I were to summarize just the return on capital thoughts. Just considering the fact that your outstanding notes, right, are all callable and you can redeem some of those 29 notes, should we just think about it as opportunistically every quarter with free cash, you'll just be considering the implied return on paying down debt or sort of redeeming those notes versus buying back shares?

麥克，我不想過度強調這一點，但也許就像我總結一下資本回報率的想法一樣。僅考慮到您未償還的票據都是可贖回的，並且您可以贖回這 29 張票據中的一部分，我們是否應該將其視為每個季度利用免費現金的機會，您只會考慮償還債務或贖回這些票據而不是回購股票的隱含回報？

Yes. What we also look at, David, is just on a forward basis with commodity prices, what's our kind of cash flow outlook, free cash flow outlook, and then compare that to how the valuation is of Antero. And if that's an opportunity for us, we'll act on that. So that's really what we think about.

是的。大衛，我們也將根據商品價格的遠期情況來觀察，看看我們的現金流前景、自由現金流前景如何，然後將其與 Antero 的估值進行比較。如果這對我們而言是一個機會，我們就會採取行動。這就是我們真正想的。

We could call those notes in right now just under the credit facility. We have so much room under the facility, it's basically undrawn today. So we could call it in no problem, continue to buy back. But like I said, we're really just trying to be opportunistic, and it is an opportunity when you see the stock at these levels versus the underlying business.

我們現在就可以根據信貸安排收回這些票據。我們的設施下面有這麼多的空間，今天基本上還沒有被利用。所以我們可以毫無問題地收回它，並繼續回購。但就像我說的，我們實際上只是想抓住機會，當你看到股票相對於基礎業務處於這些水平時，這是一個機會。

Appreciate that. Maybe if Dave can take this one. Just curious, Dave, with the benefits in the second half of this year on C3+ realizations, with the added LPG capacity, is the anticipation that that premium to Belvieu is pretty sustainable into '26? Will there be perhaps just a greater mix going international?

非常感謝。也許戴夫可以接受這個。只是好奇，戴夫，考慮到今年下半年 C3+ 實現的收益以及增加的 LPG 容量，是否預計對 Belvieu 的溢價在 26 年能夠持續下去？是否會有更大程度的混合走向國際化？

Again, international kind of remains to be contracted. So we'll be in the market getting what is prevailing prices are at that time. And we do expect it will be lower than what we saw here in '25. When we talked about double-digit premiums '25, you don't typically see that with ample dock capacity.

再次，國際方面仍有待進一步的簽約。因此，我們將在市場上了解當時的現行價格。我們確實預計它會低於 25 年的水平。當我們談論 25 年兩位數的保費時，在碼頭容量充足的情況下通常不會看到這種情況。

So you go back to 2020 and '22, you're probably averaging $0.06 to $0.07 premiums during that time period. So that will certainly be reflected in our realizations next year. And yes, I would expect that to come down modestly in '26 versus '25.

因此，回顧 2020 年和 2022 年，那段時期的平均保費可能為 0.06 美元至 0.07 美元。所以這肯定會反映在我們明年的實現中。是的，我預計 26 年這數字會比 25 年略有下降。

Kevin MacCurdy, Pickering Energy Partners.

麥柯迪（Kevin MacCurdy），皮克林能源合夥公司（Pickering Energy Partners）。

Production in 2Q was a little gassier compared to the prior quarters, and it looks like the production raise was mostly related to gas volumes. Do you have any comments on what drove the mix this quarter? And any thoughts on how that kind of mix could change throughout the year and into next year?

與前幾季相比，第二季的天然氣產量略有增加，而且產量的成長似乎主要與天然氣產量有關。您對本季組合的推動因素有何評論？您認為這種組合在今年以及明年會如何改變？

Yes. So we brought on two DUC pads that we've talked about quite a lot over a number of the past conference calls. One of them was brought on at the end of the first quarter. And these are lean gas pads, more in the 1,200 Btu range. And then the second one was brought on in July.

是的。因此，我們推出了兩款 DUC 墊，在過去的多次電話會議中我們已經討論過很多次了。其中一人是在第一節末被派上場的。這些都是低熱量氣墊，熱量範圍在 1,200 Btu 左右。然後第二個是在七月開始的。

So second and third quarters were always expected to be a bit gassier. But that reverses, like I mentioned, in the fourth quarter, you get back to that 10,000 barrel a day as condensate and liquids continues to increase. So going forward, all the pads we're bringing on for the remainder of the year are more like the 1,275 Btu. So that will reverse going into the fourth quarter.

因此，人們一直預計第二季和第三季的情況會更加緊張。但正如我所提到的那樣，情況發生了逆轉，在第四季度，隨著凝析油和液體原油產量持續增加，產量又會回到每天 10,000 桶的水平。因此，展望未來，我們在今年剩餘時間內推出的所有墊子都更像是 1,275 Btu。因此，進入第四季度，情況將會逆轉。

Got it. Appreciate the detail on that. And then as a follow-up on the collars, I mean that was a very impressive skew on the '26 collars. Does that echo kind of your internal view on gas with the more upside to downside in '26? And just wanted to get your current thoughts on -- or any changes to your medium-term macro view based on how kind of storage and production has trended this summer?

知道了。感謝您提供的詳細資訊。然後作為對衣領的後續關注，我的意思是，'26 衣領的傾斜度非常令人印象深刻。這是否與您對 26 年天然氣價格上漲和下跌幅度更大的內部看法相呼應？只是想了解您目前的想法——或者根據今年夏天的儲存和生產趨勢，您對中期宏觀觀點有何變化？

No, that made sense to us just because the skew is definitely to the upside. The margins today are razor-thin. There is no volumes that are shut in, everything is producing full out. You've had a lack of investment in the gas development over the last two years. Rig counts are still subdued.

不，這對我們來說是有意義的，因為偏差肯定是向上的。如今的利潤微乎其微。沒有任何產量被關閉，一切都在全力生產。過去兩年來，你們在天然氣開發方面缺乏投資。鑽井數量仍然低迷。

So anything could tip this to the upside. If you have an early winter, if you have any sort of winter next year, you could definitely see the gas going much, much higher. So it didn't make sense to us.

因此任何事情都可能使這種情況朝著好的方向發展。如果冬天來得早，或明年有任何冬天，你肯定會看到汽油價格上漲得更高。所以這對我們來說沒有意義。

But just locking in 20% and taking advantage of that, basically funding your capital program while still maintaining upside to $7 and still maintaining 80% upside exposure with something that appealed to us, lowering our free cash flow breakeven already the lowest down to $1.75. So we thought we should take advantage of that.

但只要鎖定20%的利率並利用好這一點，基本上就能為你的資本項目提供資金，同時還能保持7美元的上漲空間，並保持80%的上漲風險敞口，而這對我們來說很有吸引力，這將使我們的自由現金流盈虧平衡點已經最低降至1.75美元。所以我們認為應該利用這一點。

Like I mentioned, I've never seen that in my 30-plus year career. I kind of call it skew on a contango strip. So that would present itself again. I think we just continue to act just because it's so attractive but definitely skewed to the upside.

正如我所提到的，在我 30 多年的職業生涯中我從未見過這種情況。我稱它為期貨價差帶的傾斜。所以這種情況會再次出現。我認為我們繼續採取行動只是因為它非常有吸引力，但肯定偏向於上行。

Leo Mariani, ROTH.

裡奧·馬裡亞尼（Leo Mariani），羅斯（ROTH）。

Obviously, you guys mentioned some of the in-basin demand projects, so appreciate that slide there. Obviously, some new projects recently announced by one of your competitors here. Can you maybe provide maybe some color on where Antero is in that sort of scheme here? I assume that you guys are also talking to new in-basin sources of demand. So can you kind of give us a bit of an update on kind of where you guys stand there?

顯然，你們提到了一些流域內需求項目，所以請欣賞那裡的幻燈片。顯然，你們的競爭對手之一最近宣布了一些新項目。您能否提供一些關於 Antero 在這種方案中處於什麼位置的詳細資訊？我認為你們也正在談論新的盆地內需求來源。那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下你們目前的狀況呢？

Yes. Good question. First, we've seen that incremental 2 Bcf a day of natural gas demand just in the last quarter. So that's exciting to us, and that's why we kind of put that slide out that's well ahead of ours and probably everyone's expectation.

是的。好問題。首先，我們看到光是上個季度，天然氣需求就增加了每天20億立方英尺。這對我們來說是令人興奮的，這就是為什麼我們製作的幻燈片遠遠超出了我們的預期，甚至超出了所有人的預期。

How does Antero play a role? I mean we're so uniquely positioned, some of the attributes we have. We have the integration between the upstream and midstream, one-stop shop there, also importantly, that no one's kind of focusing on, but it's a huge attribute for us and kind of sets us apart as we have the water systems in the water that the data centers require and the turbines require. So that is unique to us, and that kind of puts us in a different position.

Antero 發揮了什麼作用？我的意思是，我們擁有一些獨特的優勢和屬性。我們擁有上游和中游之間的整合，一站式服務，同樣重要的是，沒有人關注這一點，但這對我們來說是一個巨大的屬性，並且使我們與眾不同，因為我們擁有數據中心和渦輪機所需的水系統。這對我們來說是獨一無二的，這使我們處於不同的地位。

We also -- as well as mentioned we have the 500,000 acres decades of core Marcellus inventory right there, HBP legacy production. So able to satisfy that. We have what we think is the best natural gas marketing team in the business. You've got exposure to Justin, they're terrific over there, so they'll be able to capture any opportunities. And we also have the investment-grade balance sheet, which is important for long-term kind of arrangements.

我們也提到，我們擁有 50 萬英畝的 Marcellus 核心庫存，以及 HBP 遺留生產。所以能夠滿足這一點。我們擁有業界最好的天然氣行銷團隊。你已經接觸過賈斯汀了，他們那邊很棒，所以他們能夠抓住任何機會。我們還有投資等級資產負債表，這對長期安排非常重要。

But with it being a long-term deal, we're really not attracted to any deals that are based on local pricing. It's going to have to be accretive to our overall store and our overall pricing. Doing deals just at local has never been exciting for us. We would always be cautious around putting hundreds of millions of dollars behind development, fund a local pricing deal. This thought has kind of driven our whole strategy from day one and what's created our firm transportation portfolio strategy.

但由於這是一項長期交易，我們對任何基於當地定價的交易都不感興趣。它必須對我們的整個商店和整體定價產生增值作用。僅在當地做交易對我們來說從來都不是一件令人興奮的事。我們始終對投入數億美元用於開發以及資助本地定價交易持謹慎態度。這種想法從第一天起就推動了我們的整個策略，並形成了我們堅定的運輸組合策略。

We put that slide there. Any time there's been local tightening of basis, it's always been met with the incremental supply and incremental development because it's -- there's really no barriers to entry to feed that local gas and how prolific the Marcellus is. So anything that we would do would have to be NYMEX-based or accretive to our pricing.

我們把那張幻燈片放在那裡。每當當地基礎收緊時，總是會伴隨著增量供應和增量開發，因為——實際上沒有進入當地天然氣的門檻，而且馬塞勒斯的天然氣產量很高。因此，我們所做的任何事情都必須以 NYMEX 為基礎或有利於我們的定價。

If we're wrong and there is attractive local pricing for sustained periods, we'll just grow into it with our 10-plus years of dry gas inventory. We can turn that on quick, that's already built, infrastructure already there. So we will be a participant. We're uniquely advantaged, like I mentioned, with all those attributes. But it's going to have to be accretive to the story.

如果我們的預測是錯誤的，而當地價格在一段較長的時間內具有吸引力，那麼我們只需利用我們 10 多年的乾氣庫存就能實現成長。我們可以快速啟動它，它已經建好了，基礎設施已經存在。因此我們將成為參與者。正如我所提到的，我們擁有獨特的優勢，並具備所有這些屬性。但它必須對故事有所好處。

Okay. I appreciate that. Just wanted to follow up on that there though. Are you guys maybe in any somewhat advanced discussions with in-basin demand sources and you think there's potential for some announcements in the near future, call it a matter of months as opposed to years? Just trying to see if we can get a little more color around where you guys are in the process.

好的。我很感激。我只是想跟進一下這一點。你們是否正在與流域內需求來源進行一些更深入的討論，並且你們認為在不久的將來可能會發布一些公告，也就是幾個月而不是幾年的事情？只是想看看我們是否可以對你們的進展有更多的了解。

Yes. We wouldn't put any timing around that. We have set up an internal team. We have a lot of efforts on it, a lot of discussions. But not going to put any timing on that.

是的。我們不會為此設定任何時間。我們已經成立了一個內部團隊。我們為此付出了很多努力，進行了很多討論。但不會對此設定任何時間。

But to remind you, we have all the firm transport, the vast majority of it, on a percentage basis to the Gulf Coast. And that's where the demand is going to come, the LNG and natural gas demand growth over the kind of short to midterm. So we're unique. We have that exposure, but we also are going to have exposure to the local demand from the data center growth.

但要提醒您，我們擁有所有固定的運輸，其中絕大多數是按百分比運往墨西哥灣沿岸的。這就是需求的來源，液化天然氣和天然氣需求在短期到中期的成長。所以我們是獨一無二的。我們有這種曝光度，但我們也將受到資料中心成長帶來的本地需求的影響。

So it's not like we need to announce deals around that. We'll be cautious and announce it at the appropriate time and enter into appropriate deals and not rush to enter into any.

所以我們不需要宣布有關該交易。我們會謹慎行事，在適當的時候宣布這項消息，並達成適當的交易，而不是急於達成任何交易。

Okay. Very helpful on that point. And then just quickly on shareholder returns here. Obviously, you don't have that much more debt to pay off as you've enumerated somewhere around $500 million or so. When that's sort of done, are we going to see just a much more meaningful return of capital?

好的。在這一點上非常有幫助。然後快速討論一下股東回報。顯然，您沒有那麼多債務需要償還，因為您已經列出了大約 5 億美元左右的債務。當這一切完成後，我們是否會看到更有意義的資本回報？

Because obviously, at that point, leverage will be so low, and if gas stays healthy, you'll just be building a lot of cash. So should people expect that? And obviously, you've done the buyback, but could there be a dividend in place at some point as well?

因為顯然，到那時，槓桿率將會非常低，如果天然氣保持健康，你就會累積大量現金。那麼人們應該期待這一點嗎？顯然，您已經完成了回購，但在某個時候是否也會有股息？

Yes, I think you're already seeing that -- we basically already are at the point where we don't need to reduce that any further. It's more just being driven by market conditions. So we'll continue to do that. We continue to buy back in size as we move forward.

是的，我想你已經看到了這一點——我們基本上已經到了不需要進一步減少的地步。這更多的只是受市場條件的驅動。因此我們會繼續這樣做。隨著我們不斷前進，我們將繼續大量買回。

I haven't thought about a dividend. That's also going to be market-based and market conditions. Really just been focused on the debt reduction and getting the share count as low as we can.

我還沒想過要過分紅的事。這也將以市場和市場條件為基礎。我們真正關注的是減少債務並盡可能降低股票數量。

Phillip Jungwirth, BMO Capital Markets.

Phillip Jungwirth，BMO 資本市場。

You noted how CAL-26 for the TGP 500 Leg has increased to $0.60. That's higher year-on-year, up from your last update. Just with Plaquemines ramping further into next year, wondering if there's a theoretical ceiling you guys think about for how high this premium could get considering the LNG demand pull and where global gas prices hit? And anything to keep in mind as far as incremental supply going to this price point?

您注意到TGP 500航段的CAL-26已上漲至0.60美元。這比您上次更新的價格同比增長了。隨著普拉克明斯 (Plaquemines) 產量在明年進一步增加，考慮到液化天然氣 (LNG) 需求拉動和全球天然氣價格的衝擊，您是否認為這一溢價的理論上限是多少？對於增量供應達到這個價格點，有什麼需要注意的嗎？

Phillip, Justin Fowler here. As we look out at the next couple of years, we definitely think that Plaquemines plus the local power gen could continue to pull that basis up. We saw that basis accelerate so quickly. And when we think about our other delivery points, for example, Columbia Gulf Onshore, which is also correlated with Plaquemines LNG, we've already seen those basis locations at CGT Onshore, A&R Southeast start to trade a premium as we look out in the forward.

菲利普，我是賈斯汀‧福勒。展望未來幾年，我們確信普拉克明加上當地的發電廠可以繼續拉高這項基礎。我們看到基礎加速得如此之快。當我們考慮其他交貨點時，例如也與普拉克明液化天然氣相關的哥倫比亞灣陸上交貨點，我們已經看到，展望未來，CGT 陸上交貨點和 A&R 東南交貨點的基準位置開始出現溢價交易。

So if you just look at history there and understand that there's only a finite amount of gas that can get to Plaquemines, and then the other LNG facilities that we can, again, highly correlate to Antero's 2 Bcf of FT delivery to the Gulf Coast, we definitely think that there could be additional upward movement as these new projects come out with new liquefaction capacity.

因此，如果你回顧歷史，就會明白只有有限量的天然氣可以到達普拉克明，而其他液化天然氣設施與 Antero 向墨西哥灣沿岸輸送 20 億立方英尺天然氣高度相關，我們確信，隨著這些新項目推出新的液化能力，可能會出現額外的上升趨勢。

And you just continue to hear all the deals out of Europe, Asia on long-term LNG contracts. So we do think, yes, it could support that. When you think about the Gulf Coast and the New York City gates, for example, you start seeing this high demand in certain specific locations, and it can drive those specific basis points much higher versus Henry Hub, if you think about it as a city gate type equivalent. So yes, definitely thinking there could be some additional upside here.

你還會不斷聽到歐洲、亞洲關於長期液化天然氣合約的所有交易。所以我們確實認為，是的，它可以支持這一點。例如，當您考慮墨西哥灣沿岸和紐約市的大門時，您會開始看到某些特定位置的需求如此之高，並且如果您將其視為城市大門類型的等效物，它可以將這些特定的基點推高至遠高於亨利中心。所以是的，我絕對認為這裡可能還有一些額外的好處。

Okay. Great. And then on Appalachia differential still $0.90 back in future years despite a bullish in-basin demand outlook. We have seen a lot of consolidation versus the last 10 years. I know you guys do some of the best work on remaining inventory, not just for Antero, but the overall basin.

好的。偉大的。儘管流域內需求前景看好，但未來幾年阿巴拉契亞山脈的差價仍將回落 0.90 美元。與過去 10 年相比，我們看到了大量的整合。我知道你們在剩餘庫存方面做了最好的工作，不僅僅是針對 Antero，而是針對整個盆地。

So just wondering if you think it could be different this time in terms of the industry supply response just given we do have a lot fewer players and generally less runway as far as core inventory.

所以我只是想知道，考慮到我們的參與者確實少了很多，而且核心庫存的跑道通常也更短，您是否認為這次的行業供應反應可能會有所不同。

Yes, it could be. Good point. We'll continue to see what transpires. Always seems to be Appalachian supply to meet any local demand. But it's a fair point of yours.

是的，有可能。說得好。我們將繼續觀察接下來會發生什麼。阿巴拉契亞山脈的供應似乎總是能滿足任何當地需求。但你的觀點很正確。

And if that occurs, we're just very well positioned. Like I said, our original purchase of the Marcellus was really in this dry gas area window, and it's all HBP, and we have over 10 years plus drilling locations of the highest quality. So hopefully, you're right, but we're not going to plan on that.

如果發生這種情況，我們就處於非常有利的位置。就像我說的，我們最初購買 Marcellus 確實是為了這個乾氣區域窗口，而且它都是 HBP，我們擁有超過 10 年的最高品質的鑽井位置。所以希望你是對的，但我們不會計劃這麼做。

Betty Jiang, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Betty Jiang。

I have a follow-up to Paul, your comment earlier about pricing on the power supply deal that anything would need to be NYMEX-based. Is there an appetite from the customer standpoint to sign a NYMEX-linked deal if from our understanding is that the market dynamic for Gulf Coast is very different than local, where they source that gas? So just wondering how competitive is that pricing discussion and appetite for a NYMEX-linked deal?

我想跟進保羅的問題，你之前關於電力供應交易定價的評論是，任何交易都需要以紐約商品交易所 (NYMEX) 為基礎。如果我們認為墨西哥灣沿岸的市場動態與天然氣來源地當地市場有很大不同，那麼從客戶的角度來看，是否有興趣簽署與 NYMEX 相關的交易？所以只是想知道與 NYMEX 掛鉤的交易的定價討論和興趣有多激烈？

Well, you saw how much demand, like we mentioned, it's over 5 Bcfs a day. So ultimately, they're going to have to secure their supply and we're the second largest producer in the basin with all those attributes that I talked about, and I think only we're the -- there's only two investment-grade counterparties as well and only two with upstream and midstream together. So if they want to secure the supply and be with that type of producer, obviously, we would have leverage because all of our other pricing is on NYMEX and really don't need to sell anything at a local basis.

嗯，您看到了需求量有多大，就像我們提到的那樣，每天超過 50 億立方英尺。因此，最終，他們必須確保他們的供應，我們是該盆地第二大生產商，具備我談到的所有屬性，我認為只有我們是——只有兩個投資級交易對手，只有兩個同時擁有上游和中游業務。因此，如果他們想要確保供應並與該類型的生產商合作，顯然，我們將具有影響力，因為我們所有其他的定價都在紐約商品交易所 (NYMEX) 上，並且實際上不需要在當地出售任何東西。

Got it. And would you mind talking a bit about the power dynamic going on in the West Virginia area just because we have seen all the deals happening in Pennsylvania? I understand there's legislature that's being signed that's supporting power development in West Virginia as well. So does that position you guys specifically for the opportunities arising in the region?

知道了。由於我們已經看到賓州發生的所有交易，您是否介意談談西維吉尼亞州地區的權力動態？據我所知，正在簽署的立法也支持西維吉尼亞州的電力開發。那麼，這是否使你們特別適合該地區出現的機會？

Yes, they just passed that Microgrid Bill in West Virginia to allow for more ease of development around these data centers in the AI build-out. So that was in direct response to this. So they are trying to position West Virginia favorably, and I think we are in a favorable position.

是的，他們剛剛在西維吉尼亞州通過了微電網法案，以便在人工智慧建設中更容易圍繞這些資料中心進行開發。這是對此的直接回應。因此，他們試圖讓西維吉尼亞州處於有利地位，我認為我們處於有利地位。

And there are no further questions at this time. I'll hand it back to Brendan Krueger for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我將把它交還給布倫丹·克魯格 (Brendan Krueger) 作結束語。

Yes. Thank you for joining us on today's call. Please reach out with any further questions. Thank you.

是的。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。如有任何其他問題，請與我們聯絡。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference. All parties may disconnect. Have a good day.

今天的會議到此結束。各方均可斷開連線。祝你有美好的一天。