Antero Resources Corp (AR) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Antero Resources first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Brendan Krueger, Vice President of Finance. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

您好，歡迎參加 Antero Resources 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）。提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興介紹您的主持人，財務副總裁 Brendan Krueger。謝謝您，先生。你可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning. Thank you for joining us for Antero's first quarter 2025 investor conference call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operating highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteroresources.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

謝謝，早安。感謝您參加 Antero 2025 年第一季投資者電話會議。我們將花幾分鐘時間介紹財務和營運亮點，然後進行問答。我還想將您引導至我們網站的主頁 www.anteroresources.com，我們在那裡提供了單獨的收益電話會議演示文稿，將在今天的電話會議上進行審查。

Today's call may contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures. Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman, CEO, and President; Michael Kennedy, CFO; Dave Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing and Transportation; and Justin Fowler, Senior Vice President of Natural Gas Marketing. I will now turn the call over to Paul.

今天的電話會議可能包含某些非公認會計準則財務指標。請參閱我們的收益新聞稿，以了解有關此類指標的重要揭露，包括與最具可比性的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事長、執行長兼總裁 Paul Rady；麥可‧甘迺迪，財務長；液體行銷與運輸資深副總裁 Dave Cannelongo；以及天然氣行銷高級副總裁賈斯汀‧福勒 (Justin Fowler)。現在我將把電話轉給保羅。

Thanks, Brendan, and good morning, everyone. Well, this year is off to an excellent start. Let me begin with slide number 3 titled Drilling and Completion Efficiencies, which details the drivers behind our exceptional performance during the first quarter. Starting with the chart on the left side of the slide, we increased our completed feet per day to an average of 2,452 feet. This represents an increase of 15% from the 2,140 feet per day average in 2023.

謝謝，布倫丹，大家早安。嗯，今年的開局非常好。讓我從第三張幻燈片開始，標題為“鑽井和完井效率”，其中詳細介紹了我們在第一季表現出色的驅動因素。從幻燈片左側的圖表開始，我們將每天完成的距離增加到平均 2,452 英尺。這比 2023 年每天平均 2,140 英尺的增加了 15%。

On the right side of the slide, we highlight our completion stages per day. During the first quarter, we averaged 12.3 completion stages per day. This continues the upward trend when comparing to our performance the past two years.

在幻燈片的右側，我們突出顯示了每天的完成階段。第一季度，我們平均每天完成 12.3 個階段。與我們過去兩年的表現相比，這繼續保持上升趨勢。

Notably, we set a new company record in the first quarter, achieving 18 completion stages per day on 1 pad in March. Lastly, shown in the left -- in the yellow bars of both charts we included recent records announced by our natural gas peers to provide context on just how efficient our Drilling and Completion teams are today. This performance allows us to run a very lean program with just two rigs on average and just over one completion crew on average in order to hold flat 3.4 Bcf equivalent per day of production.

值得注意的是，我們在第一季創下了新的公司紀錄，3 月實現了 1 個平台每天 18 個完井階段的作業。最後，如左圖所示——在兩張圖表的黃色條中，我們包含了天然氣同行公佈的最新記錄，以說明我們的鑽井和完井團隊目前的效率。這樣的表現使我們能夠運行一個非常精簡的計劃，平均只需兩台鑽機和平均一支完井隊，就能保持每天34億立方英尺當量的產量。

Now let's turn to slide number 4 to discuss our updated hedges. During the quarter, we added new wide natural gas collars for 2026. The volumes hedged tied to the expected volumes from our Lean Gas development, which is the leaner Btu, so approximately 1,200 Btu or less that is planned through the end of 2026.

現在讓我們翻到投影片 4 來討論一下更新後的避險。本季度，我們增加了 2026 年新的寬天然氣領圈。對沖的數量與我們預期的貧氣開發量掛鉤，即更貧的 Btu，因此到 2026 年底計劃產量約為 1,200 Btu 或更少。

These wide collars lock in attractive rates of return with a floor price of $3.07 and a ceiling of $5.96. Hedging these lean gas pads allows for continuity in our development planning, which is essential to maintaining our capital efficiencies. With these new hedges in place, we have hedged approximately 9% of our expected natural gas volumes through 2026.

這些寬領圈鎖定了頗具吸引力的回報率，最低價格為 3.07 美元，最高價格為 5.96 美元。對這些貧氣田進行避險可以確保我們開發規劃的連續性，這對於維持我們的資本效率至關重要。透過這些新的對沖措施，到 2026 年，我們已經對沖了預計天然氣產量的約 9%。

Now to touch on the current Liquids and NGL fundamentals, I'm going to turn it over to our Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing and Transportation, Dave Cannelongo for his comments.

現在，談到當前液體和 NGL 的基本面，我將把它交給我們的液體行銷和運輸高級副總裁 Dave Cannelongo 來徵求他的評論。

Thanks, Paul. Let's start on slide number 5 titled NGL Pricing Premium. Antero's fundamental NGL position and pricing outlook remains strong. This strength is highlighted by our previously stated guidance for $1.50 to $2.50 per barrel premium to Mont Belvieu on our realized C3+ NGL prices. This expected premium is an improvement to the $1.41 per barrel premium that we achieved in 2024.

謝謝，保羅。讓我們從第 5 張投影片「NGL 定價溢價」開​​始。Antero 的基本 NGL 地位和定價前景仍然強勁。我們先前提出的指導價格為每桶比 Mont Belvieu 的 C3+ NGL 價格高出 1.50 至 2.50 美元，凸顯了這一優勢。這項預期溢價比我們在 2024 年實現的每桶 1.41 美元的溢價有所改善。

Our outlook is supported by the strategic decision we made to enter into firm sales agreements on 90% of our LPG volumes for 2025 at double-digit cent per gallon premium to Mont Belvieu. In addition, selling our LPG at the Marcus Hook terminal along the East Coast has several competitive advantages.

我們的前景得到了我們所做的策略決策的支持，即到 2025 年，我們將就 90% 的液化石油氣銷售簽訂固定銷售協議，每加侖價格比蒙特貝爾維尤高出兩位數美分。此外，在東岸的馬庫斯胡克終端銷售我們的液化石油氣具有多項競爭優勢。

First, it is geographically advantaged to Europe and Atlantic Basin markets. Second, we sell our LPG at the dock to the highest bidder, meaning the ultimate end destination does not directly impact us. And third, Marcus Hook export customers do not have cancellation rights.

首先，它在地理上具有面向歐洲和大西洋盆地市場的優勢。其次，我們在碼頭將液化石油氣賣給出價最高的人，這意味著最終目的地不會直接影響我們。第三，Marcus Hook 出口客戶沒有取消權。

So the volumes that we have contracted to date are final. The result of these attributes is that regardless of the extent of current tariff negotiations, Antero's marketing position and strategy helps limit any meaningful impact from the tariffs.

因此，我們迄今為止簽訂的合約數量是最終的。這些屬性的結果是，無論當前關稅談判的程度如何，Antero 的營銷地位和策略都有助於限制關稅的任何有意義的影響。

Regarding our exposure to China, we did a look back at Antero's historical LPG export cargoes and found that only two cargoes were directed by our customers to China during the entire year of 2024 or less than 4% of our overall C3+ NGL volumes. This year, no Antero volumes have gone to China to date, and none are contracted to do so for the remainder of the year.

關於我們在中國的業務，我們回顧了 Antero 的歷史 LPG 出口貨物，發現在 2024 年全年，我們的客戶僅將兩批貨物運往中國，占我們 C3+ NGL 總出口量的不到 4%。今年到目前為止，Antero 還未向中國出口任何原油，而且今年剩餘時間內也沒有簽訂任何出口合約。

As I just mentioned, we sell our LPG at the dock to customers offering the highest price. The fact that very few cargoes went to China going back to the beginning of 2024, even before the current trade policies went into effect, shows that the Chinese market is rarely the best bid for Antero's barrels out of the East Coast.

正如我剛才提到的，我們在碼頭向提供最高價格的客戶出售我們的液化石油氣。事實上，自 2024 年初起，甚至在現行貿易政策生效之前，運往中國的石油就非常少，這表明中國市場很少是安特羅公司東海岸石油的最佳購買地。

Next, I'd like to discuss our outlook for the global LPG market. First, I'll note that there are recent reports suggesting that China is likely to exclude ethane and LPG from their tariffs, which is what they have done over the last five years. We'll watch for updated developments there.

接下來我想討論我們對全球液化石油氣市場的展望。首先，我要指出的是，最近有報告指出中國可能會將乙烷和液化石油氣排除在關稅之外，而這正是他們過去五年來所做的。我們將關注那裡的最新進展。

Regardless, given how tight the global LPG supply-demand balance is, we anticipate that global trade patterns will adjust to absorb any displaced US barrels. A reshuffle of LPG trade flows could mean increased US LPG volumes heading to Europe, Southeast Asia, India, Japan, South Korea. This would then require increased Middle Eastern, Russian, and African LPG supplies to be directed into China.

無論如何，考慮到全球液化石油氣供需平衡如此緊張，我們預計全球貿易模式將進行調整，以吸收任何流離失所的美國石油。液化石油氣貿易流的重新調整可能意味著美國液化石油氣運往歐洲、東南亞、印度、日本和韓國的數量將增加。這就需要增加中東、俄羅斯和非洲的液化石油氣供應到中國。

Global ship tracking data is already demonstrating some of this reshuffle with increased flows from the US into Japan and South Korea. Most market participants and consultants believe that US LPG barrels can find sufficient markets outside of China in the event that escalated tariffs continue.

全球船舶追蹤數據已經顯示出這種格局的變化，從美國到日本和韓國的船舶流量有所增加。大多數市場參與者和顧問認為，如果關稅持續上調，美國液化石油氣在中國以外仍能找到足夠的市場。

In the broader LPG export market, we have not heard of any cancellations at the major US Gulf Coast export terminals since the tariffs came into effect, and demand and pricing for our remaining volumes in 2025 has remained essentially unchanged from prior months.

在更廣泛的液化石油氣出口市場中，自關稅生效以來，我們尚未聽說美國墨西哥灣沿岸主要出口碼頭有任何取消訂單的消息，而且 2025 年剩餘出口量的需求和價格與前幾個月基本保持不變。

Slide number 6 highlights US propane exports. As you can see, exports year-to-date, including the most recent weeks in April are at record high levels and 7% above the year ago period, providing additional proof that we have not seen any impact to US propane demand. With that, I'll now turn it over to our Senior Vice President of Natural Gas Marketing, Justin Fowler, to discuss the natural gas market.

幻燈片 6 重點介紹了美國丙烷出口。如您所見，今年迄今為止的出口量（包括四月份最近幾週）都達到了歷史最高水平，比去年同期高出 7%，這進一步證明我們沒有看到美國丙烷需求受到任何影響。現在，我將把話題交給我們的天然氣行銷高級副總裁賈斯汀·福勒 (Justin Fowler)，討論天然氣市場。

Thanks, Dave. I'll start on slide number 7, which illustrates the positive impact on Gulf Coast pricing that we've experienced due to the faster-than-expected ramp of Venture Global Plaquemines LNG facility. The chart at the top of the slide illustrates the pace at which Plaquemines ramped up, as compared to Venture Global's last LNG facility, Calcasieu Pass.

謝謝，戴夫。我將從第 7 張幻燈片開始，它展示了 Venture Global Plaquemines LNG 設施比預期更快的投產對墨西哥灣沿岸定價的正面影響。投影片頂部的圖表顯示了普拉克明的擴張速度，並與 Venture Global 的上一個液化天然氣設施卡爾克蘇通道進行了比較。

The faster-than-anticipated start-up led to higher demand along our TGP 500L firm transport and therefore, higher pricing. Looking at the TGP 500L basis, which is the basis hub with the largest exposure to Plaquemines, the quicker than anticipated ramp of the facility has already lifted balance of the year 2025 and calendar 2026 pricing by $0.11 per MMBtu compared to strip pricing before the start-up.

比預期更快的啟動導致我們對 TGP 500L 固定運輸的需求增加，因此價格上漲。從 TGP 500L 基礎來看，這是與普拉克明 (Plaquemines) 關係最大的基礎樞紐，與投產前條帶價格相比，該設施比預期更快的產能提升已經將 2025 年和 2026 年的平衡價格提高了 0.11 美元/MMBtu。

Today, the facility is exporting an average of over 2.1 Bcf per day. Venture Global has indicated that they anticipate this increasing toward 2.7 Bcf per day in the coming months as the facility continues to commission additional blocks.

如今，該設施每天平均出口量超過21億立方英尺。Venture Global 表示，隨著該設施繼續投入使用更多區塊，他們預計未來幾個月這一產量將增加至每天 27 億立方英尺。

As a reminder, Antero has 570 MMcf per day of firm transportation or approximately 25% of our gas production on the TGP 500L pool. Next, I'd like to turn to slide number 8 titled AR Positioned for Data Center Natural Gas Demand Surge.

提醒一下，Antero 每天有 570 MMcf 的固定運輸量，或約佔 TGP 500L 池中天然氣產量的 25%。接下來，我想翻到第 8 張投影片，標題為「AR 定位於資料中心天然氣需求激增」。

The Appalachian region in vicinity have quickly become a focal point for natural gas-fired power generation, data centers and behind the meter projects. These projects will require a significant amount of natural gas supply for decades.

附近的阿巴拉契亞地區已迅速成為天然氣發電、資料中心和電錶後專案的焦點。這些項目將需要未來幾十年的大量天然氣供應。

The extensive resource base of the Marcellus and Utica Shales provides certainty of long-term natural gas supply while supportive state regulations are leading to fast approvals and attractive incentives to build in the region.

馬塞勒斯和尤蒂卡頁岩豐富的資源基礎確保了長期的天然氣供應，而支持性的州法規則為該地區的建設提供了快速的審批和誘人的激勵措施。

Two recent announcements include the Homer City Power Plant outside of Pittsburgh and the CPV Shay Power Plant located within our development footprint in Doddridge County, West Virginia. Combined, these two natural gas power plants will deliver over 6.5 gigawatts of power, driving a nearly 1.2 Bcf increase in regional natural gas demand. Staying in West Virginia this month, the legislature has passed the Microgrid Bill, an initiative championed by West Virginia Governor Patrick Morrisey.

最近宣布的兩個項目包括位於匹茲堡郊外的荷馬城發電廠和位於我們位於西維吉尼亞州多德里奇縣的開發範圍內的 CPV Shay 發電廠。這兩座天然氣發電廠合計將輸出超過6.5吉瓦的電力，推動該地區天然氣需求增加近12億立方英尺。本月，西維吉尼亞州立法機構通過了由西維吉尼亞州州長帕特里克·莫里西倡導的《微電網法案》。

The bill aims to attract data centers into the state and incentivizes them to build self-sufficient on-site power generation. The bill was signed in the law by the Governor just yesterday. Through our extensive resource base, integrated midstream assets, and firm transportation commitments to the Gulf Coast LNG corridor, we are uniquely positioned to participate in both the LNG export growth along the Gulf Coast and the expected growth in regional power demand through data center expansions.

該法案旨在吸引資料中心進入該州，並激勵它們建立自給自足的現場發電設施。州長昨天剛簽署了這項法案。透過我們廣泛的資源基礎、綜合的中游資產以及對墨西哥灣沿岸液化天然氣走廊的堅定運輸承諾，我們擁有獨特的優勢，可以參與墨西哥灣沿岸的液化天然氣出口增長以及通過數據中心擴建實現的區域電力需求的預期增長。

Haynesville producers convention proximity to LNG, while Northeast producers can mention power exposure, but Antero is the only company that is positioned for both. With that, I will turn it over to Mike Kennedy, CFO of Antero Resources.

海恩斯維爾的生產商通常靠近液化天然氣，而東北部的生產商可以提到電力供應，但 Antero 是唯一同時滿足這兩項條件的公司。接下來，我將把麥克風交給 Antero Resources 的財務長 Mike Kennedy。

Thanks, Justin. In the first quarter, we executed on our plan, delivering production of 3.4 Bcfe per day at the midpoint of our guidance. Drilling and Completion capital was just $157 million or 23% of our full year guidance.

謝謝，賈斯汀。在第一季度，我們按照計劃完成了產量，達到了預期中位數的34億立方英尺當量/天。鑽井和完井資本僅 1.57 億美元，佔全年預期的 23%。

We generated $337 million of free cash flow, which benefited from strong natural gas and NGL premiums relative to their benchmarks. We use this free cash flow to accelerate our share repurchase program, repurchasing $92 million of stock or nearly 1% of our shares outstanding year-to-date.

我們產生了 3.37 億美元的自由現金流，這得益於相對於基準的強勁天然氣和 NGL 溢價。我們利用這筆自由現金流加速我們的股票回購計劃，回購了價值 9,200 萬美元的股票，佔年初至今流通股的近 1%。

In addition, we continue to focus on debt reduction, reducing debt by over $200 million during the first quarter. We entered 2025 in the strongest position in company history. Our low absolute debt and peer-leading capital efficiency provides us with flexibility and our shareholder return strategy.

此外，我們繼續專注於削減債務，第一季削減債務超過2億美元。我們將以公司歷史上最強勁的地位邁入 2025 年。我們的低絕對債務和同業領先的資本效率為我們提供了靈活性和股東回報策略。

With this flexibility, we can pivot between share buybacks or debt reduction depending on market conditions. This was highlighted by our activity year-to-date when we saw an opportunity between AR share value and market fundamentals and thus, we accelerated our buyback program ahead of the timeline we had previously targeted.

有了這種靈活性，我們可以根據市場狀況在股票回購或債務削減之間進行調整。年初至今，我們的活動突顯了這一點，我們看到了 AR 股價和市場基本面之間的機會，因此，我們提前完成了回購計劃，超過了我們之前設定的時間表。

Let's look at the attributes that put us in such a compelling position as we enter this new cycle. Starting with Slide number 9 titled Leading Capital Efficiency and Free Cash Flow Breakeven Levels. The chart on the left-hand side of the slide highlights our capital efficiency relative to our peers. Antero has the lowest maintenance capital per Mcfe of its peer group at just $0.54 per Mcfe. This is 27% below the peer average of $0.74 per Mcfe.

讓我們看看在進入這個新周期時，是什麼讓我們處於如此引人注目的地位。從第 9 張投影片開始，標題為「領先的資本效率和自由現金流損益平衡水準」。投影片左側的圖表突顯了我們相對於同行的資本效率。Antero 的每 Mcfe 維護資本在同行中最低，僅為每 Mcfe 0.54 美元。這比同行平均每 Mcfe 0.74 美元低 27%。

The chart on the right shows unhedged free cash flow breakeven prices for Antero and our peer group. Antero has the lowest breakeven at $2.29 per Mcf, driven by our low maintenance capital requirements and our ability to capture premium pricing that both Dave and Justin detailed earlier.

右側的圖表顯示了 Antero 和我們同行的未對沖自由現金流損益兩平價格。Antero 的損益平衡點最低，為每 Mcf 2.29 美元，這得益於我們的低維護資本要求以及我們獲取溢價的能力，Dave 和 Justin 之前都對此進行了詳細介紹。

I'll close my comments on slide number 10 titled Low Debt Balance Provides Flexibility. During the first quarter, we called the remaining $97 million of our 2026 senior notes, pushing our nearest maturity out to 2029.

我將在第 10 張投影片「低債務餘額提供彈性」上結束我的評論。在第一季度，我們贖回了剩餘的 9,700 萬美元 2026 年優先票據，將最近的到期日推遲到 2029 年。

At March 31, our total debt is just $1.3 billion, which is the lowest debt level among our peers. Based on today's current strip, our guidance suggests substantial free cash flow in 2025 and beyond. While we will target a 50-50 debt reduction and share buyback strategy, we intend to remain opportunistic pending market fluctuations. With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

截至 3 月 31 日，我們的總債務僅為 13 億美元，是同業中最低的債務水準。根據今天的現狀，我們的指導表明 2025 年及以後將出現大量自由現金流。雖然我們將採取 50-50 的債務削減和股票回購策略，但我們打算在市場波動期間繼續把握機會。說完這些，我現在將電話轉給接線生來回答問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的阿倫‧賈亞拉姆 (Arun Jayaram)。

Dave, I wanted to see if you could maybe clarify the marketing agreement for LPGs. As you mentioned, 90% of your LPG volumes are locked in with firm sales at a double-digit set per gallon premium to Mont Belvieu. So a couple of questions around that would be, does this reflect your total volumes? Or is that just your exported volumes? Because as you know, in your weekly, you continue to highlight an annual mix of 50% international versus domestic?

戴夫，我想看看你是否可以澄清一下液化石油氣的行銷協議。正如您所提到的，90% 的液化石油氣銷量都已鎖定，並且每加侖價格比蒙特貝爾維尤高出兩位數。因此，圍繞這一問題的幾個問題是，這反映了您的總量嗎？或者這只是您的導出量？因為如您所知，在您的週刊中，您繼續強調每年國際和國內客流量佔比各為 50%？

Yeah, Arun. So that 90% that I was speaking to is our export volumes. But when you look at our domestic sales as well, those are all locked in essentially at a 90%-plus level, in addition to that. So really, our entire C3+ barrel is in that high -- over 90% locked in premiums to Belvieu for the year, which is why we felt so confident in the guidance range that we gave back in February.

是的，阿倫。我所說的 90% 是我們的出口量。但如果你看看我們的國內銷售額，你會發現這些銷售額基本上都鎖定在 90% 以上的水平。因此，實際上，我們的整個 C3+ 桶都處於如此高的位置 - 超過 90% 的年度溢價鎖定在 Belvieu 上，這就是為什麼我們對 2 月給出的指導範圍如此有信心。

Is there a general cost to enter into these agreements? Or is it just you're giving the surety of supply, hence you get those premiums?

簽訂這些協議是否需要一般費用？或者只是因為您提供了供應保證，所以才獲得了這些溢價？

Yeah. On the domestic side, it's very common for those to be term deals that people lock in on an annual basis. Typically, that's an April to March contract year. And then on the export side, as we've talked about in prior years, sometimes we take an approach where we go and term up a lot of the volumes. Other times, we go into the spot market, we really try and be opportunistic with what we see as the fundamentals and trying to make the right call that's going to maximize the value and you've kind of seen us do that.

是的。在國內方面，按年鎖定的定期合約十分常見。通常，這是四月到三月的合約年。然後在出口方面，正如我們前幾年所討論的那樣，有時我們會採取一種方法來計算大量的出口量。其他時候，我們進入現貨市場，我們真的嘗試抓住機會，根據我們所看到的基本面，嘗試做出正確的決定，以實現價值最大化，你已經看到我們這樣做了。

Three of the six years we've been on Mariner 2019, '24 and '25. We've really kind of called those market dynamics directly and been able to optimize our price realization. So we took advantage of some strength that was in the market early in 2025 to lock in some strong premiums. And obviously, had we not done that, the spot market has been much weaker here in the mid-single digits. So just trying to make the right calls at the right times when the market provides those opportunities.

我們在 Mariner 號上待了六年，其中三年是 2019 年、2024 年和 2025 年。我們確實直接了解了這些市場動態，並且能夠優化我們的價格實現。因此，我們利用 2025 年初市場的一些優勢來鎖定一些強勁的溢價。顯然，如果我們不這樣做，現貨市場就會變得更加疲軟，跌幅在個位數左右。因此，只要在市場提供這些機會時嘗試在正確的時間做出正確的決定即可。

Great. And maybe my follow-up for you, Paul. There has -- there's recently been some stepped up M&A as we think about some of the gas levered producers in US Shale. And we're hearing about maybe some more deal potential as the year kind of plays on. So I wanted to see if you could talk a little bit about how you're thinking about inorganic investment opportunities within US Shale?

偉大的。也許我可以跟進一下你的情況，保羅。考慮到美國頁岩氣的一些槓桿生產商，最近出現了一些加強的併購活動。隨著時間的推移，我們可能會聽到更多交易的可能性。所以我想看看您是否可以談談您對美國頁岩油無機投資機會的看法？

Yeah, Arun, this is Mike. We obviously have a very strong organic leasing program, as adding locations at less than $1 million. I think you saw in the first quarter, it was $850,000. We continue to lease those acres in and amongst exactly right next to our current development. So as long as that's available to us, that's what M&A would have to compete with.

是的，阿倫，我是麥克。我們顯然擁有非常強大的有機租賃計劃，因為增加租賃地點的成本不到 100 萬美元。我想你在第一季就看到了，它是 85 萬美元。我們將繼續租賃位於我們目前開發案旁的土地。因此，只要我們能夠獲得這些，併購就必須與之競爭。

And as I mentioned, our development program is so strong just because of our infrastructure, our midstream, our FT, everything we've talked about on today's call. And it really is just developing that next pad over, and it's a contiguous acreage position.

正如我所提到的，我們的開發計劃如此強大，僅僅是因為我們的基礎設施、我們的中游、我們的 FT 以及我們在今天的電話會議上討論的一切。它實際上只是開發下一個平台，並且是連續的土地位置。

So any M&A would have to compete with that, and that's very much a challenge to see. In addition to that, if you look at our inventory, it's over 20 years, half of it's liquid, half of it is dry gas, next 10 years liquids after that dry gas.

因此，任何併購都必須與之競爭，這是一個很大的挑戰。除此之外，如果你看看我們的庫存，它已經超過 20 年了，一半是液體，一半是乾氣，接下來的 10 年是液體，之後是乾氣。

So we have substantial length in our inventory. So once again, there's no real need to do M&A. If it's ever opportunistic and very accretive to us and makes sense for us, of course, we would look at it, but there's no need for M&A for Antero.

因此我們的庫存量相當大。所以再說一次，沒有必要進行併購。如果它對我們來說是一個機會，並且非常具有增值性，並且對我們來說是有意義的，我們當然會考慮它，但 Antero 沒有必要進行併購。

John Freeman, Raymond James.

約翰‧弗里曼、雷蒙‧詹姆斯。

I first wanted to touch base on the buybacks. As you highlighted, Mike, you all stepped into that earlier than sort of the original plan of sort of taking down the $500 million on the debt and then go on to that kind of 50-50 debt reduction on buybacks. So I just want to make sure that I understood right, Mike. Because right now, is the plan now going forward that it's going to be kind of the 50-50 sort of debt reduction versus buybacks from this point forward as opposed to waiting until the full $500 million have been taken down?

我首先想談談回購的情況。正如你所強調的，麥克，你們都比最初的計劃更早地介入了這個問題，最初的計劃是減少 5 億美元的債務，然後透過回購實現 50-50 的債務削減。所以我只是想確保我理解正確，麥克。因為現在，計劃是從現在開始以 50-50 的比例削減債務和回購，而不是等到全部 5 億美元都被削減後再進行？

Yeah, John. Yes, we're opportunistic, and we're trying to be countercyclical. We didn't think we'd get this opportunity to buy shares at these prices. I mean when you look at our fundamental outlook, it's as strong as ever, and to have the shares valued at where it is today, it's an opportunity for us. So that's why we pivoted towards share buybacks.

是的，約翰。是的，我們是機會主義者，我們正在努力實現逆週期。我們沒有想到我們會有機會以這樣的價格購買股票。我的意思是，當你看看我們的基本前景時，它和以往一樣強勁，並且使股價達到今天的水平，這對我們來說是一個機會。這就是我們轉向股票回購的原因。

We have a lot of visibility into our business and our cash flow generation, and we don't really have any debt. So very little debt, no maturity until '29. So we've never really been in this position where we can see our cash flow generation, not seeing it be reflected in the market, and so we're able to capitalize on that. But the opportunity is more towards the debt side, we could pivot towards that. But at today's stock levels and share and value levels, we pivoted towards this 50-50 strategy basically in March.

我們對我們的業務和現金流產生有很高的透明度，而且我們實際上沒有任何債務。因此債務很少，直到 29 年才到期。因此，我們從未真正處於這樣的境地：我們可以看到我們的現金流產生，卻看不到它反映在市場上，因此我們可以利用這一點。但機會更多是在債務方面，我們可以轉向那方面。但在今天的股票水平、份額和價值水平下，我們基本上在 3 月轉向了這種 50-50 策略。

That's great. Yeah, that makes sense. The follow-up question just on the hedging strategy, and you all did sort of indicate, you all are moving this direction with maybe looking to do some collars in 2026 and understand that they're pretty wide collars, so you're still getting to participate in the upside.

那太棒了。是的，這很有道理。後續問題只是關於對沖策略，你們都確實表示，你們都在朝著這個方向發展，也許希望在 2026 年做一些領子期權，並且明白它們是相當寬的領子期權，所以你們仍然可以參與上行。

But just want to have an idea is, should we expect that you all would continue to increase that hedge percentage in 2026? Or is this sort of more opportunistic or kind of one-off? Or is there some sort of change in the hedging strategy that we should think about going forward?

但我只是想知道，我們是否應該預期你們會在 2026 年繼續增加對沖百分比？或者這更具機會主義色彩，還是一次性的？或者我們應該考慮對沖策略進行某種改變？

Yeah, no change. Still very bullish. We have four pads that were that lean gas that Paul mentioned, one is on right now, one comes on in the third quarter. And then two, nearly part of '26 that we talked about earlier, needing really like [$2.75-plus to really generate high returns for us. Never in our careers have we seen a future strip price with a $4 handle on it and you get a $2.2] or a greater call skew on that.

是的，沒有變化。仍然非常看好。我們有四個護墊，都是保羅提到的稀薄氣體，一個現在正在使用，一個將在第三節使用。其次，我們之前談到的 26 年幾乎全部需要 [2.75 美元以上] 才能真正為我們帶來高回報。在我們的職業生涯中，我們從未見過未來的條形價格上有 4 美元的手柄，並且您會得到 2.2 美元或更大的看漲偏差。

So to be able to lock in at [$3. And I think today, it's $3 by $7-plus]. That's quite the dynamic to be able to lock in those returns on those pads, not have to have DUCs like we did last year. Continue to produce those out at high returns, high cash flows and still have upside to [$7.40]. So we're still very bullish. It's just quite the dynamic for us with the call skew and the elevated pricing in '26.

因此，為了能夠鎖定[3美元。我認為今天是 3 美元乘以 7 美元以上。這是一種相當動態的方式，能夠鎖定這些墊子的回報，而不必像去年那樣擁有 DUC。繼續生產高回報、高現金流的產品，並且仍然有上升空間[7.40美元]。所以我們還是非常看好。對我們來說，26 年的買權偏差和價格上漲是一個相當大的動態。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特（Doug Leggate），沃爾夫研究公司。

This is John Abbott on for Doug Leggate. We want to start off going back to the capital returns here. I mean you accelerated the buyback earlier, as mentioned on one of the previous questions, and you want to be opportunistic. So I guess the question is, you see the value in buying your shares now under the strategy. Is there a point where you would probably not buy shares?

我是約翰‧阿博特 (John Abbott)，代替道格‧萊格特 (Doug Leggate)。我們首先要回顧一下資本回報。我的意思是，正如前面提到的一個問題，你早些時候加速了回購，你想抓住機會。所以我想問題是，您是否認為在該策略下現在購買股票具有價值。是否存在您可能不會購買股票的情況？

You see just -- in other words, you generate more cash and higher gas prices. So do you buy more shares? Or do you conserve, you keep cash on the balance sheet. How do you think about that dynamic going forward for buybacks?

換句話說，你產生了更多的現金和更高的汽油價格。那你會買更多股票嗎？或者你進行節約，將現金保留在資產負債表上。您如何看待未來回購的動態？

Yeah. No, we always see value in buying back our shares, and there's a tremendous confidence. We always want to be interested in buying back shares. But it's common sense. What we found is when you're countercyclical, that's when you generate the highest returns and buying them back.

是的。不，我們始終認為回購股票是有價值的，而且我們對此充滿信心。我們始終希望對回購股票感興趣。但這是常識。我們發現，當你逆週期的時候，你就能獲得最高的回報並將其買回來。

And then when your share price is at a high point or higher point, buying down debt always accrues to the equity as well. So -- it's kind of just a balance. You're just trying to be opportunistic, buy low when you can.

然後，當您的股價處於高點或更高點時，購買債務也總是會累積到股權中。所以——這只是一種平衡。您只是想抓住機會，盡可能低價買入。

Appreciate the discussion during the opening remarks on the NGL macro. Maybe a couple of questions with respect to NGLs. Maybe with regards to your inventory, I mean, how would you sort of parse out the breakeven of your NGL inventory? I mean not all acreage is sort of the same. Is there a point when you would reduce activity if you saw a certain NGL price?

感謝 NGL 宏的開幕詞中的討論。也許有幾個關於 NGL 的問題。也許關於您的庫存，我的意思是，您如何分析您的 NGL 庫存的損益平衡？我的意思是，並不是所有的土地面積都是一樣的。如果您看到某個特定的 NGL 價格，您是否會減少活動？

Is there a level of -- minimum level of activity that you would wish to maintain? How do you think of those dynamics granted?

您希望維持的活動量是否達到最低水準？您如何看待這些動態？

Yeah, you got to compare it to natural gas prices. So a good example is last year, you averaged $2.27 natural gas NYMEX. But because C3+ Liquids were in [40s]. We generated on an unhedged basis, over $70 million of free cash flow. So that's how our breakeven last year was at $2.20.

是的，你必須將其與天然氣價格進行比較。一個很好的例子是，去年紐約商品交易所的天然氣平均價格為 2.27 美元。但由於 C3+ 液體[40多歲]。我們在未對沖的基礎上產生了超過 7000 萬美元的自由現金流。這就是我們去年的損益平衡點為 2.20 美元的原因。

We mentioned in today's comments $2.29 in the first quarter with the $40 C3+ just looking in the out years right now, even with the backwardation of oil being in the high 50s, and that would put C3+ in the [low 30s] at today's natural gas strip, Antero is still generating $1 billion-plus free cash flow every year.

我們在今天的評論中提到，第一季的價格為 2.29 美元，而 C3+ 的價格為 40 美元，目前看來這只是未來幾年的情況，即使石油現貨溢價處於 50 多美元，而這將使 C3+ 在今天的天然氣帶處於 [30 多美元]，Antero 每年仍能產生 10 億美元以上的自由現金流。

So you got to compare with the natural gas prices. Obviously, there's a dynamic there that if you have low prices and low C3+ prices, you're probably going to have low associated gas and thus high natural gas prices. That's why Antero is so well positioned, really has no constraints around infrastructure. We always talk about that transport midstream, but it's also diversity of product, being such a large natural gas producer and such a large liquids producer puts us in good shape with low debt, obviously.

所以你必須與天然氣價格進行比較。顯然，如果價格和 C3+ 價格低，那麼伴生氣可能就會低，因此天然氣價格就會高。這就是為什麼 Antero 的定位如此優越，實際上沒有基礎設施的限制。我們總是談論運輸中游，但它也是產品的多樣性，作為如此大的天然氣生產商和如此大的液體生產商，我們顯然處於良好狀態，負債較低。

Kevin MacCurdy, Pickering Energy Partners.

麥柯迪（Kevin MacCurdy），皮克林能源合夥公司（Pickering Energy Partners）。

My first question is more strategic. Some of your gas peers have announced well-received plans to grow volumes. I know that you see a lot of potential in just running a maintenance program. But as you look out over the next 5 to 10 years, what are the market dynamics that would incentivize you to grow volumes? And is there any operational constraint in doing so?

我的第一個問題更具策略性。一些天然氣同行已經宣布了廣受好評的產量成長計劃。我知道您看到運行維護程序具有很大的潛力。但展望未來 5 到 10 年，哪些市場動態會激勵您增加銷售量？這樣做是否有操作限制？

The market would be around what we talked about the local gas demand, those power plants that Justin highlighted, data centers, anything locally that where you flow our gas. I mean -- we have over 1,000 dry gas locations that are well above 2 Bcf per 1,000 over in the eastern portion of our fields. We have ample inventory to grow. We have the local midstream capacity with Antero Midstream. It's really -- just if there's that local demand.

市場將圍繞我們談論的當地天然氣需求、賈斯汀強調的那些發電廠、資料中心以及任何可以輸送天然氣的當地設施。我的意思是——在我們氣田的東部，我們有超過 1,000 個乾氣地點，每 1,000 個地點的乾氣含量遠高於 20 億立方英尺。我們擁有充足的庫存可供發展。我們擁有 Antero Midstream 的本地中游產能。確實——只要有當地需求即可。

We're not going to grow into basis -- on a local basis without the demand meeting the need for the supply. So that's what it would be required.

如果需求無法滿足供應需求，我們就無法在當地發展壯大。這就是我們需要做的。

If you have to make future commitments on FT or processing or whatnot, that's not something we're interested in. Our FT and processing are almost full right now. They actually are full or above nameplate on the processing. So that's why we pursue maintenance capital. But if you did get local demand, that demanded our gas, we could fill that very easily.

如果您必須對 FT 或處理或諸如此類的事情做出未來的承諾，那不是我們感興趣的。我們的 FT 和處理現在幾乎已滿。它們實際上是在加工過程中完全或超出銘牌。這就是我們追求維護資本的原因。但如果確實有當地需求，需要我們的天然氣，我們可以輕鬆地滿足這項需求。

And as a follow-up, another question on the LPG sales. You had the foresight to lock in the premiums for 2025 before the arbs closed. But as you look into 2026, if there's no pricing advantage to sell to either one of the international -- either one or both of the international markets, what is your flexibility to sell volumes between the US markets and international?

接下來，我還有一個關於液化石油氣銷售的問題。您很有遠見，在套利結束前鎖定了 2025 年的保費。但是展望 2026 年，如果沒有定價優勢向任何一個國際市場（一個或兩個國際市場）銷售，那麼您在美國市場和國際市場之間銷售產品的靈活性如何？

Yeah. So I wouldn't say the arbs closed. It's just come down a bit. I think what Dave mentioned is what we saw was pretty premium pricing for '25 that more than matched our premium pricing in '24, and we saw it in January. So our Liquids Departments very adept and very agile.

是的。所以我不會說套利已經結束。只是稍微下降了一點。我認為戴夫提到的是，我們看到 25 年的定價相當高，超過了 24 年的定價，我們在一月份就看到了這一點。因此我們的液體部門非常熟練且非常靈活。

And so they were able to capture those premiums. When you can capture a $0.15 premium versus what you average maybe $0.11 in '24 and locked that in, that was very attractive to us. And they really look at the export capacity in the US, new dock capacity is coming on, if the local production is going to meet that, there's a lot of dynamics.

因此他們能夠獲得這些保費。當你可以獲得 0.15 美元的溢價（而 24 年的平均溢價可能是 0.11 美元）並將其鎖定時，這對我們來說非常有吸引力。他們確實關注美國的出口能力，新的碼頭能力正在增加，如果當地的生產能夠滿足這項要求，就會有很多動力。

So they do a great job in a really detailed and thorough analysis, probably the best in the business, in doing that. And so we'll do that same analysis and we do it on a daily basis, but we'll continue to do that analysis throughout the year and into '26. And Dave mentioned it really goes till the end of March 31, 2026. So through the next year, we'll continue to analyze, and we'll make the proper decisions next -- beginning of next year.

因此，他們在非常詳細和徹底的分析方面做得非常出色，可能是業內最好的。因此，我們會進行相同的分析，並且每天都會進行，但我們會在今年全年乃至 26 年繼續進行這種分析。戴夫提到，這一期限實際上將持續到 2026 年 3 月 31 日。因此，在接下來的一年裡，我們將繼續進行分析，並在明年年初做出適當的決定。

Leo Mariani, ROTH Capital Partners.

羅仕證券資本合夥公司的 Leo Mariani。

I want to just follow-up a little bit on the commentary around the split between debt paydown and buyback. Got the 50-50, very clear on that. But just in the first quarter if I just look at the pure numbers, there's just over $200 million of debt that you paid down. And in the first quarter, I think it was only a $10 million buyback. Obviously, you did some subsequently here in April to get to the $92 million.

我想稍微跟進一下有關債務償還和回購之間分歧的評論。得到了 50-50，這一點非常清楚。但光是第一季度，如果我只看純數字，就會發現你們償還的債務剛好超過 2 億美元。而在第一季度，我認為回購金額僅 1,000 萬美元。顯然，你們在 4 月做了一些後續工作，才達到了 9,200 萬美元。

But on the 50-50, are you guys going to be looking at that kind of on a full year basis on the 50-50 because you obviously skewed much harder to debt pay down in the first quarter. So just trying to get a sense if there's more room for share buyback potentially this year? And obviously, on the debt side, you've got just over $300 million on your revolver left. So maybe not quite as much to pay down here in the near term.

但在 50-50 的比例上，你們是否會以全年 50-50 的比例來看待這個問題，因為你們顯然在第一季更加努力地償還債務。那麼，您只是想了解今年是否還有更多股票回購的空間？顯然，在債務方面，你的左輪手槍只剩下 3 億多美元。因此，短期內可能不需要償還那麼多。

Yeah, I think you saw the opportunities. I mean we looked at, just pulled it off the screen. We looked at the VWAP so far year-to-date in Antero's shares, and we bought back at a 10% lower level than the average of our shares. We would have bought back earlier, but there was no disconnect in the January and February price. All of a sudden in March, I think you saw it across all markets, but uncertainty became apparent.

是的，我認為你看到了機會。我的意思是，我們看了看，然後就把它從螢幕上拿下來了。我們查看了今年迄今為止 Antero 股票的 VWAP，並以比我們股票平均價格低 10% 的水平回購了股票。我們本來應該早點買回來，但一月和二月的價格並沒有出現脫節。突然間，到了三月份，我想所有市場都出現了這種現象，不確定性變得明顯。

And so things became on sale. So we decided to capture that, and then we put in a 10b5-1 plan to continue to buy throughout this. And so that's what we'll do going forward, just being opportunistic. There's no hard and fast rule, 50-50. We could do more share buybacks.

於是東西就開始出售了。因此我們決定抓住這一點，然後製定 10b5-1 計劃以繼續購買。這就是我們接下來要做的事情，抓住機會。沒有硬性規定，50-50。我們可以進行更多股票回購。

If this continues, we could go less and pay down the debt a little bit more. But as you mentioned, we don't have much debt left. So ultimately, the share buybacks is going to be a greater and greater percentage of our free cash flow use.

如果這種情況持續下去，我們可以減少支出並多償還一些債務。但正如您所說，我們的債務已經所剩無幾了。因此，最終，股票回購將占我們自由現金流使用的比例越來越大。

Okay. Makes a lot of sense for sure. And then obviously, in your macro discussion, you talked about potential for in-basin demand, rattled off a couple projects that have kind of been announced. Can you maybe provide a little bit more color on where Antero is in kind of the discussions to try to maybe capture some of this in-basin demand or some of these processes like the Homer City fairly competitive? Is there kind of an auction for some of that type of supply? Maybe just can provide some more color on where Antero is on these projects?

好的。確實很有道理。然後顯然，在您的宏觀討論中，您談到了流域內需求的潛力，並列舉了幾個已經宣布的項目。您能否更詳細地介紹一下 Antero 在討論中所處的位置，以嘗試捕捉一些流域內的需求或一些像 Homer City 這樣的相當有競爭力的過程？是否有針對此類供應的拍賣？也許可以提供更多關於 Antero 在這些項目中所處位置的資訊？

Antero obviously in the mix being one of the largest producers and definitely in West Virginia, that CPV power plants right in the middle of our field. So we'll have competitive advantages there. We're not interested in selling our gas really on a local basis.

Antero 顯然是西維吉尼亞州最大的生產商之一，其 CPV 發電廠就位於我們領域的中心。因此我們在那裡擁有競爭優勢。我們對在當地銷售天然氣不感興趣。

So -- because right now, we obviously get Henry Hub, and that's where our gas goes. So we do have a floor kind of on the pricing, at least on our maintenance capital program, future growth may be in the coming years, maybe that's something that we would look at. But we're really focused on our firm transport and getting into the LPG right now, but we are having discussions with the local players, of course, because we are such a large producer.

所以——因為現在我們顯然有亨利港，我們的天然氣就流向那裡。因此，我們確實對定價有一個底線，至少對我們的維護資本計劃來說是這樣，未來的成長可能會在未來幾年，也許這是我們會考慮的事情。但我們目前真正關注的是我們的穩定運輸和進入液化石油氣領域，但我們當然也在與當地企業進行討論，因為我們是一家大型生產商。

Roger Read, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的羅傑‧里德 (Roger Read)。

Yeah. Just sort of curious, I mean, it sounds like demand picked up a little quicker on the LNG side, no real change to your full year guidance. What would make you maybe a little more optimistic on the production side? And then also as a follow-up there to Leo's question, just kind of thinking in-basin demand. Where are you in terms of visibility on some of the improvements there?

是的。只是有點好奇，我的意思是，聽起來液化天然氣方面的需求增長得有點快，對全年指導沒有真正的變化。什麼會讓您對生產方面更加樂觀？然後作為對 Leo 問題的後續回答，我們只是思考一下盆地內的需求。您對那裡的一些改進的了解程度如何？

Well, we got a lot of visibility. We are the gas, the liquids producer in Appalachian. So a lot of visibility. But we're pursuing the maintenance capital plan because that fills our firm transport, fills our processing and allows us to produce at the highest returns with the premium pricing from the NGLs and the natural gas. So no change to that.

嗯，我們的知名度很高。我們是阿巴拉契亞的天然氣和液體生產商。因此可見度很高。但我們正在推行維護資本計劃，因為這可以滿足我們公司的運輸需求，滿足我們的加工需求，並使我們能夠利用 NGL 和天然氣的溢價獲得最高的回報。因此這一點沒有改變。

Like we mentioned, it would have to be substantial local demand, and we would -- our supply would meet the timing of that demand and that's not in this year, and we don't see much for next year either. So it will be a maintenance capital during that time frame. But anything post that, when we mentioned these projects, we could be a participant in those.

正如我們所提到的，這必須有大量的本地需求，而且我們的供應將滿足該需求的時間，但今年還沒有達到這個水平，而且我們預計明年也不會有太大的需求。因此，在這段時間內它將成為維護資本。但此後的任何事情，當我們提到這些項目時，我們都可以成為其中的參與者。

Paul Diamond, Citi.

花旗銀行的保羅戴蒙德 (Paul Diamond)。

Just a quick one for me. Sticking on the in-basin demand dialogue. I know with all the FT -- with all your FT on the books and maintenance capital pretty much filling that, I guess, trying to drill down a little bit on what type of pricing like in-basin, like what collapsed on the basis in Appalachian, would you need to see to actually like sign on to that? Is that your breakeven is plus X? Or is that more of like a solid number? How do you guys do that?

對我來說只是一個快速的步驟。堅持流域內需求對話。我知道所有的 FT - 所有你的 FT 在賬面上，維護資本幾乎都填補了這些，我想，試著深入了解一下像盆地內定價這樣的類型，比如阿巴拉契亞基礎上的崩潰，你需要看到真正簽署這些嗎？您的損益平衡點是加上 X 嗎？或者這更像是一個確切的數字？你們是怎麼做到的？

Yeah. No, we really view it through a NYMEX Henry Hub lens. I mean that's how we've been talking about it, whether it's ethane, other projects or natural gas because that's what you can hedge for years and years and years. The basis could be strong at any particular moment. But in the shoulder months, summer months, you could see weakness.

是的。不，我們確實是透過 NYMEX Henry Hub 鏡頭來看待它。我的意思是，我們一直在談論它，無論是乙烷、其他項目還是天然氣，因為這些都是你可以對沖多年的東西。在任何特定時刻，基礎都可能很強大。但在夏季，你可能會看到疲軟跡象。

And so that's why when you look out, you see pretty wide basis locally, even though there is very strong pricing in the first quarter. So it's kind of more of a long-term look. Can you lock it in? Can you hedge it? Can you count on it? Can you spend billion dollars of capital to support it? That's why we looked at. And that's why everything we've got really prices off NYMEX Henry Hub.

因此，當你觀察時，你會發現本地基礎相當廣泛，儘管第一季的定價非常強勁。因此這更像是一種長遠的考慮。你能把它鎖起來嗎？你能對沖它嗎？你能相信嗎？你能花費數十億美元的資金來支持它嗎？這就是我們關注的原因。這就是為什麼我們所獲得的所有商品的價格都與紐約商品交易所亨利港的價格相符。

Got it. So there's the -- I would guess, little expectation that there would be any sort of discount to Hub over the long term in order to get you guys to actually move.

知道了。因此，我猜，很少有人期望 Hub 會在長期內以任何形式的折扣來讓你們真正行動起來。

Yeah. I mean you could have a contract that's Henry Hub minus something, but it would have to be kind of floating on that Henry Hub, having a floating on a local basis. You can have such disconnects at certain times that it's hard to put a lot of capital behind that.

是的。我的意思是，你可以簽訂一份亨利港減去某些部分的合同，但它必須在亨利港浮動，在當地浮動。在某些時候，你可能會遇到這樣的脫節，以至於很難投入大量資金來應對這種情況。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的尼爾·梅塔。

Just wanted to stay on the gas macro -- the dry gas macro and get your perspective with lower oil prices, and we'll see what happens here over the next couple of days. How you're thinking about associated supply in the United States, particularly out of the Permian? And does that represent a tailwind that can make natural gas despite the risk potentially around industrial and more protected from economic volatility?

我只是想繼續關注天然氣宏觀——乾氣宏觀，並了解您對較低油價的看法，我們將看看未來幾天會發生什麼。您如何看待美國的相關供應，特別是二疊紀盆地的供應？這是否代表著一種順風，可以生產天然氣，儘管可能存在工業風險，並且更能抵禦經濟波動？

Yeah, definitely. We've never really seen a better setup from a natural gas demand growth over the coming quarters, years versus supply. I mean you're coming into this already with a low rig count, very low in the Haynesville and Appalachian and other natural gas basins.

是的，確實。我們從未真正看到未來幾季、幾年天然氣需求成長與供應量之間的良好對比。我的意思是，目前鑽井數量已經很低了，海恩斯維爾、阿巴拉契亞和其他天然氣盆地的鑽井數量非常低。

And if you put on top of that, Permian rigs coming off and no real associated gas growth from there or muted. I mean that just sets up for an explosive kind of natural gas environment going forward with the LPG -- I mean with the LNG demand and kind of electrification of America supporting the demand side of things. So very exciting and definitely would be a tailwind for natural gas.

除此之外，二疊紀鑽井平台的關閉也導致那裡沒有實際的相關天然氣成長或成長放緩。我的意思是，這為未來液化石油氣（LPG）帶來的爆炸性天然氣環境奠定了基礎——我的意思是液化天然氣需求和美國電氣化支援需求方面。這非常令人興奮，而且肯定會為天然氣帶來順風。

So two long-term questions as it relates to gas. I mean the bull side is we have to price to the Haynesville. I know you guys don't have exposure there. I'm sure you've done a lot of work to try to benchmark what you think the marginal Haynesville cost would be if that's the price-setting mechanism. Do you have a strong view on that?

因此，有兩個與天然氣有關的長期問題。我的意思是，從牛市角度來說，我們必須根據海恩斯維爾的價格來定價。我知道你們在那裡沒有曝光率。我相信您已經做了很多工作來嘗試確定基準，如果這是定價機制，那麼您認為海恩斯維爾的邊際成本是多少。您對此有強烈的看法嗎？

And then the offset for those who are more bearish, is the global gas market does slip. It seems like into decent oversupply. Does that provide a governor on how high we can ultimately go? And so is that even a relevant marker? Or do we have to price to TTF minus? So just thoughts around that.

而對於那些更悲觀的人來說，抵銷因素是全球天然氣市場確實下滑。看起來似乎已經陷入了嚴重的供過於求的狀況。這是否可以為我們最終能達到多高提供一個限制？那麼這是否是一個相關的標記？或者我們必須將價格定為 TTF 減損？只是圍繞著這個來思考。

Yeah. No, see, we think Haynesville is probably $4-plus, and that's probably the inventory right now, and that runs out pretty quick. So I mean, no one really talks about inventory fatigue, but you'll definitely see it across the basin. So all this gas supply is going to have to come from not your Appalachian low-cost producers. It's going to come from ever-increasing second-tier acreage and second-tier basin. So that price will continue to go up.

是的。不，你看，我們認為 Haynesville 的價格可能是 4 美元以上，這可能是目前的庫存，而且很快就會用完。所以我的意思是，沒有人真正談論庫存疲勞，但你肯定會在整個盆地看到它。因此，所有這些天然氣供應都必須來自阿巴拉契亞低成本生產商。它將來自不斷增加的二線土地面積和二線盆地。因此價格將繼續上漲。

In global gas, how do you think about that headwind on the other side?

在全球天然氣領域，您如何看待另一方面的逆風？

I don't think of a headwind if it's pricing of TTF. So we got Justin here, what's the kind of the tolling and the shipping, if the arb goes to TTF? Is it TTF plus $3.50, TTF plus $4 or something like that.

如果是 TTF 的定價，我不認為會有什麼不利因素。所以我們讓賈斯汀來這裡，如果套利去 TTF，收費和運輸是什麼樣的？是 TTF 加 3.50 美元、TTF 加 4 美元還是類似的金額。

Neil, it's Justin. When we look on the longer data, balance of '25 through call -- '28, call it spread still look very healthy to the European and Asian markets. So we feel like that those netbacks will support continued buying and growth. You continue to see FSRUs being set globally at multiple locations, various countries that are going to continue to consume natural gas because it is the fuel of the future here. So continuing to see that demand getting built out.

尼爾，我是賈斯汀。當我們查看更長期的數據時，從 25 年到 28 年的看漲期權餘額來看，看漲期權利差對歐洲和亞洲市場來說仍然非常健康。因此我們認為這些淨回值將支持持續的購買和成長。您將繼續看到 FSRU 被設置在世界各地的多個地點，各個國家都將繼續消耗天然氣，因為它是未來的燃料。因此，我們將繼續看到這種需求不斷擴大。

Betty Jiang, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Betty Jiang。

I have a question back to the C3+ premium guidance. So if you guys are getting $0.15 per gallon premium on 90% of your export volume. So that equates to roughly $6 premium. Just trying to square that to your full year guidance of $2. Are you just assuming a bigger discount on the domestic volumes or that guidance could be conservative?

我對 C3+ 高級指導有一個疑問。因此，如果你們 90% 的出口量獲得每加侖 0.15 美元的溢價。因此這相當於大約 6 美元的溢價。只是想將其與您的全年指導價 2 美元進行平衡。您只是假設國內銷量會有更大的折扣，或者指導可能會比較保守？

That's just on the exports. So -- and on propane, the LPG has got a lot more in it, obviously, butane, natural gasoline, all that. So that's just on the propane portion that is exported. And so when you sell it locally, it's more like a Mont Belvieu price. So for the propane and then the butane and natural gasoline is not what that premium is. It's not near that $0.15.

這只是關於出口。所以 — — 和丙烷相比，液化石油氣中顯然含有較多的成分，還有丁烷、天然汽油等等。這只是出口的丙烷部分。因此，當您在當地銷售時，它更像是蒙特貝爾維尤的價格。因此，對於丙烷、丁烷和天然汽油來說，溢價並不高。它遠不及 0.15 美元。

Got it. $0.15 just on propane piece.

知道了。光是丙烷一塊就花費 0.15 美元。

On the export propane, yes.

關於出口丙烷，是的。

Got it. And then separately on the GP&T, could you maybe talk about some of the disruptions or dynamic for 1Q? And also follow-up on the comment earlier about processing plants running full and running above nameplate. How does that translate to your liquids mix over time? Do you see your C3+ mix much above 20% on longer term?

知道了。然後分別就 GP&T 而言，您能否談談第一季的一些中斷或動態？另外也要跟進之前關於加工廠滿載運轉和超額運作的評論。隨著時間的推移，這會對您的液體混合物產生什麼影響？您是否認為長期來看您的 C3+ 組合將遠高於 20%？

So if you read the AM, Antero Midstream release, you saw that our processing was more than full. I think it was like 104% or something like that, on the Sherwood and Smithburg processing facility. So you can see there, there wouldn't be any change to our current mix of liquids. Then on your GP&T, remember, there's a variable component on natural gas prices as they go higher. We do have transport expense, fuel expense on the transport and taxes.

因此，如果您閱讀 AM、Antero Midstream 發布的新聞稿，您會發現我們的處理已經非常充分。我認為舍伍德和史密斯堡加工廠的比例大概是 104% 左右。所以你可以看到，我們目前的液體混合物不會有任何變化。然後，在您的 GP&T 上，請記住，隨著天然氣價格上漲，其價格會出現一個可變成分。我們確實有運輸費用、運輸燃料費用和稅金。

So our general rule of thumb is for every dollar of natural gas price higher, you get $0.10 higher variable price on the GP&T. So that's why you saw it a little bit higher than our guidance range. It comes back down throughout the year as you have a little bit lower pricing in the second and third quarter.

因此，我們的一般經驗法則是，天然氣價格每上漲一美元，GP&T 的浮動價格就會上漲 0.10 美元。所以這就是為什麼你看到它比我們的指導範圍略高一點。由於第二季和第三季的價格略有下降，因此全年價格都會回落。

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the floor back over to management for closing comments.

問答環節已結束。現在我想將發言權交還給管理階層，請他們發表最後評論。

Yeah. Thank you for joining us on today's call. Please reach out with any further questions. Thank you.

是的。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。如有任何其他問題，請與我們聯絡。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。