Antero Resources Corp (AR) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to Antero Resources third-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

問候。歡迎參加 Antero Resources 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）謹此提醒，此通話正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Brendan Krueger, CFO of Antero Midstream and Vice President of Finance. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興向大家介紹 Antero Midstream 財務長兼財務副總裁 Brendan Krueger。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for Antero's third-quarter 2024 investor conference call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operating highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteroresources.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

謝謝。大家早安。感謝您參加 Antero 2024 年第三季投資者電話會議。我們將花幾分鐘時間瀏覽財務和營運亮點，然後我們將進行問答。我還想引導您訪問我們網站的主頁 www.anteroresources.com，我們在該網站上提供了單獨的收益電話演示，並將在今天的電話會議期間進行審查。

Today's call may contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議可能包含某些非公認會計準則財務指標。請參閱我們的收益新聞稿，以了解有關此類措施的重要揭露，包括與最具可比性的公認會計原則財務措施的調節。

Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman, CEO and President; Michael Kennedy, CFO; Justin Fowler, Senior Vice President of Natural Gas Marketing; and Dave Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing and Transportation.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事長、執行長兼總裁 Paul Rady；麥可‧甘迺迪，財務長； Justin Fowler，天然氣行銷資深副總裁；以及液體行銷和運輸資深副總裁 Dave Cannelongo。

I will now turn the call over to Paul.

我現在將把電話轉給保羅。

Thank you, Brendan, and good morning, everyone. I'll start my comments on slide number 3 titled Drilling and Completion Efficiencies. Our 2024 operating performance continues to set new records. I'd like to highlight the significant gains that we've achieved over the past two years. Faster drilling times have reduced the required time it takes for us to drill a well; now, it's below 11 days from 14 days in 2022. This is a 22% reduction from 2022.

謝謝你，布倫丹，大家早安。我將從標題為“鑽井和完井效率”的第 3 號幻燈片開始我的評論。我們 2024 年的經營業績持續創下新紀錄。我想強調我們在過去兩年中所取得的重大成果。更快的鑽井時間減少了我們鑽井所需的時間；現在，這個時間比 2022 年的 14 天減少到了 11 天。這比 2022 年減少了 22%。

And on the completion side, we again set a new quarterly record, averaging 12.1 stages per day. And in this last August, we set a new monthly record at 13.3 completion stages per day. The quarterly average represents a 51% increase compared to the complete completion stages per day average in 2022. These improvements in drilling and completion rates result in reduced cycle times. Shown in the chart on the bottom of the slide, our cycle times have declined to 126 days, which is 23% below the 2022 level of 163 days. Overall, these improvements have reduced our total well cost by 8% since last year to their lowest level since 2021.

在完成方面，我們再次創下了新的季度記錄，平均每天完成 12.1 個階段。去年 8 月，我們創下了每天 13.3 個完成階段的新月紀錄。與 2022 年每日完成階段的平均值相比，季度平均值增加了 51%。鑽井和完井率的這些改進導致周期時間縮短。如投影片底部的圖表所示，我們的週期時間已降至 126 天，比 2022 年 163 天的水平低 23%。總體而言，這些改進使我們的總油井成本自去年以來降低了 8%，達到 2021 年以來的最低水準。

These step changes in operating efficiencies directly result in reduced capital expenditure requirements. This is shown on slide number 4, titled Reduced Capital Budget. For this year, 2024, we reduced our drilling and completion capital budget to $650 million at the midpoint, a 28% decrease from 2023, while holding production flat. A significant driver behind this lower capital is that, today, we are able to sustain maintenance production with just two rigs and approximately one completion crew.

營運效率的這些階躍變化直接導致資本支出需求的減少。這顯示在標題為「減少資本預算」的幻燈片 4 中。今年，也就是 2024 年，我們將鑽井和完井資本預算中位數減少至 6.5 億美元，比 2023 年減少 28%，同時維持產量不變。資本降低背後的一個重要驅動因素是，如今，我們只需兩台鑽機和大約一名完井人員即可維持維護生產。

Looking ahead to 2025, we will continue to focus on improving our efficiency. We recently switched to an e-fleet for our completion activity. Early results have been encouraging, and we estimate potential future well cost savings could be upwards of $150,000 to as much as $200,000 per well driven by increased pumping time and lower fuel costs.

展望2025年，我們將持續專注於提高效率。我們最近改用電子車隊來完成我們的活動。早期結果令人鼓舞，我們估計，透過增加泵送時間和降低燃料成本，未來每口井的成本節省可能高達 150,000 美元至 200,000 美元。

Now to touch on the current liquids and NGL fundamentals, I'm going to turn it over to our Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing and Transportation, Dave Cannelongo, for his comments. Dave?

現在要談談目前的液體和 NGL 基本面，我將把它交給我們的液體行銷和運輸高級副總裁 Dave Cannelongo，徵求他的意見。戴夫？

Thanks, Paul. Realizing strong export premiums for our LPG sales highlighted our third-quarter liquids results. The expected dynamic resulting from US Gulf Coast export dock constraints discussed last earnings call ultimately played out to our benefit as we continue to execute on our strategy to target international prices and market the vast majority of our export barrels in the spot market.

謝謝，保羅。我們的液化石油氣銷售實現了強勁的出口溢價，突顯了我們第三季的液體表現。上次財報電話會議討論的美國墨西哥灣沿岸出口碼頭限制所帶來的預期動態最終對我們有利，因為我們繼續執行我們的戰略，以國際價格為目標，並在現貨市場銷售我們的絕大多數出口桶。

Because export cargoes are being marketed at 30 to 60 days before actual ship loadings, we have great visibility into our C3+ realizations for the remainder of 2024 and expect these premiums to remain in place for the next several quarters.

由於出口貨物在實際裝船前 30 至 60 天進行銷售，因此我們對 2024 年剩餘時間的 C3+ 實現情況有很好的了解，並預計這些溢價將在接下來的幾個季度保持不變。

Slide number 5 shows historical propane exports and highlights the consistent increases we have observed over the past four years. Export volumes have averaged over 1.7 million barrels a day year-to-date, setting up for another record export year. Since 2021, exports have increased 46%, driven by resilient international demand, particularly from Asia.

第 5 號投影片顯示了歷史丙烷出口量，並強調了我們在過去四年中觀察到的持續成長。今年迄今為止，出口量平均每天超過 170 萬桶，創下了另一項出口紀錄。自 2021 年以來，在國際需求（尤其是亞洲需求）強勁的推動下，出口成長了 46%。

As seen on slide number 6, titled Antero Holds Northeast LPG Export Advantage, export capacity additions in the US are not expected until the second half of 2025. Over this time frame, we expect to continue benefiting from robust export premiums that are likely to persist until new export capacity comes online.

正如題為「Antero 擁有東北液化石油氣出口優勢」的第 6 張幻燈片所示，預計美國的出口能力要到 2025 年下半年才會增加。在這段時間內，我們預計將繼續受益於強勁的出口溢價，這種溢價可能會持續到新的出口產能上線為止。

In addition to the export recovery, overall total US propane demand exceeded 3 million barrels a day recently, a high going back to February, as seasonal crop drying demand picked up in October. As colder weather begins to arrive, the market will look to increases in heating demand to continue the strong October demand.

除了出口復甦之外，隨著 10 月季節性作物乾燥需求的回升，美國丙烷總需求最近超過了 300 萬桶/日，這是自 2 月以來的最高水準。隨著寒冷的天氣開始到來，市場將期待供暖需求的增加，以延續 10 月的強勁需求。

Slide number 7 quantifies the propane export premiums that Antero realized in the third quarter with a $0.22 per gallon average premium to Mont Belvieu. This is up from premiums of $0.08 to $0.09 per gallon to start this year and $0.05 to $0.09 per gallon in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Current markets show these premiums should improve in the fourth quarter to nearly $0.27 per gallon on average. Butane premiums are similarly showing their value with recent export differentials averaging in the mid- to high teens above Mont Belvieu prices.

第 7 號投影片量化了 Antero 在第三季實現的丙烷出口溢價，每加侖比 Mont Belvieu 平均溢價 0.22 美元。今年開始的保費為每加侖 0.08 美元至 0.09 美元，2022 年和 2023 年的保費分別為每加侖 0.05 美元至 0.09 美元。目前的市場顯示，第四季這些溢價應該會提高到平均每加侖近 0.27 美元。丁烷溢價也同樣顯示出其價值，近期出口價差平均比貝爾維尤山價格高出十幾位數。

To conclude, with unconstrained access at the Marcus Hook terminal in Pennsylvania through our firm commitments, Antero is well positioned to continue realizing these high export premiums for the balance of 2024 and into 2025.

總而言之，透過我們的堅定承諾，Antero 可以不受限制地進入賓夕法尼亞州馬庫斯胡克碼頭，因此有能力在 2024 年剩餘時間和 2025 年繼續實現這些高出口溢價。

With that, I'll now turn it over to our Senior Vice President of Natural Gas Marketing, Justin Fowler, to discuss the natural gas market.

現在，我將把它交給我們的天然氣行銷高級副總裁賈斯汀·福勒 (Justin Fowler)，討論天然氣市場。

Thanks, Dave. First, let's look at the year-to-date power burn trends that are shown on slide number 8. 2024 has once again been a record-setting year for natural gas power burn demand. Year-to-date, natural gas power burn is averaging 1.4 Bcf higher than last year. While over the last 10 years, natural gas power burn demand has increased 15 Bcf per day.

謝謝，戴夫。首先，讓我們來看看第 8 號幻燈片中顯示的今年迄今為止的電力消耗趨勢。今年迄今為止，天然氣發電消耗量比去年平均高出 1.4 Bcf。而在過去 10 年中，天然氣發電需求每天增加 15 Bcf。

Looking ahead, we believe this trend of higher annual natural gas power burn will continue to be driven by demand growth from AI data centers, crypto mining, and electric vehicles. This power demand growth provides an incremental uplift on top of the highly anticipated second wave of LNG demand that is expected to add in combination 20 Bcf of incremental demand by the end of the decade.

展望未來，我們認為，人工智慧資料中心、加密貨幣挖礦和電動車的需求成長將繼續推動每年天然氣耗電量增加的趨勢。這種電力需求的成長在備受期待的第二波液化天然氣需求的基礎上提供了增量提升，預計到本十年末將增加 20 Bcf 的增量需求。

Antero is uniquely positioned to benefit from these expected step changes in demand. Our firm transportation portfolio delivers 75% of our natural gas to the LNG corridor and provides us with direct exposure to growing LNG demand, while our asset position in West Virginia is within the region where a significant number of new data centers are expected to be built. Further, our firm transportation portfolio provides the necessary infrastructure to connect our natural gas to data centers and utilities in need of reliable supply.

Antero 處於獨特的地位，可以從這些預期的需求逐步變化中受益。我們堅定的運輸投資組合將 75% 的天然氣輸送到液化天然氣走廊，使我們能夠直接接觸不斷增長的液化天然氣需求，而我們在西維吉尼亞州的資產狀況位於預計將建造大量新資料中心的地區內。此外，我們堅定的運輸投資組合提供了必要的基礎設施，將我們的天然氣連接到需要可靠供應的資料中心和公用事業。

Turning to slide number 9, let's review the current natural gas storage level. The record natural gas power burn I just highlighted, combined with continued producer discipline, has resulted in the surplus and inventory shrinking by nearly 500 Bcf since the highs in March of this year. Today, we sit at just 167 Bcf above the five-year average, a level that supports our constructive outlook for 2025. We continue to believe low rig counts combined with an upward step change in demand will support a continued tightening of inventories and lead to higher prices in 2025 and beyond.

轉向第 9 號投影片，讓我們回顧一下目前的天然氣儲存水準。我剛才強調的創紀錄的天然氣發電量，加上持續的生產商紀律，導致過剩和庫存自今年 3 月的高點以來減少了近 500 Bcf。今天，我們的價格僅比五年平均值高出 167 Bcf，這一水準支持我們對 2025 年的建設性展望。我們仍然認為，鑽機數量較低加上需求的上升變化將支持庫存持續收緊，並導致 2025 年及以後的價格上漲。

With that, I will turn it over to Mike Kennedy, Antero's CFO.

接下來，我會將其交給 Antero 財務長 Mike Kennedy。

Thanks, Justin. I'd like to start with slide number 10, titled Lowest Free Cash Flow Breakeven. This slide compares 2024 unhedged free cash flow breakeven levels across our peer group. Our approximate $2.20 breakeven level benefits from two primary drivers.

謝謝，賈斯汀。我想從第 10 號投影片開始，標題為「最低自由現金流損益平衡點」。這張投影片比較了我們同行組 2024 年未對沖的自由現金流損益兩平水準。我們大約 2.20 美元的損益平衡水準受益於兩個主要驅動因素。

First, our low maintenance capital requirements. This is driven by our operational improvements as highlighted by the reduction in our drilling and completion capital guidance for this year. The second driver is our high exposure to liquids. Despite the weakness in natural gas prices, which averaged just $2.10 through the first nine months of 2024, strong C3+ NGL prices have provided a $1.10 uplift to our equivalent price realizations during that period.

首先，我們的維護資本要求低。這是由我們的營運改善所推動的，今年鑽井和完井資本指導的減少凸顯了這一點。第二個驅動因素是我們對液體的高度接觸。儘管天然氣價格疲軟，2024 年前 9 個月的平均價格僅為 2.10 美元，但強勁的 C3+ NGL 價格使我們在此期間的同等價格實現上漲了 1.10 美元。

The chart on the right-hand side of the slide illustrates unhedged free cash flow through the first nine months of the year. While we have just a small outspend year-to-date, our peers with higher breakeven levels have unsustainable outspends. In our opinion, this is the best way to determine the quality of a company's asset base and operations.

幻燈片右側的圖表顯示了今年前九個月的未對沖自由現金流。雖然我們今年迄今只有小額支出，但損益兩平程度較高的同業卻有不可持續的支出。我們認為，這是確定公司資產基礎和營運品質的最佳方式。

Turning to slide number 11, titled Peer-Leading Capital Efficiency. This chart depicts the tangible benefits from our operational gains that Paul detailed earlier. Antero has the lowest maintenance capital per Mcfe of its peer group at just $0.52 per Mcfe. This is 41% below the peer average of $0.88 per Mcfe. Further, most of our peers have declining production, suggesting true maintenance capital requirements that are higher than illustrated on that slide.

轉向第 11 號投影片，標題為「同行領先的資本效率」。這張圖表描繪了保羅先前詳述的營運收益帶來的實際收益。Antero 的每 Mcfe 維護成本在同行中最低，每 Mcfe 僅 0.52 美元。這比同行平均每 Mcfe 0.88 美元低 41%。此外，我們大多數同行的產量都在下降，這表明真正的維護資本要求高於幻燈片中所示的水平。

Antero's capital program provides us with important flexibility in our future development plans. Given current natural gas pricing, we elected to defer the completion of a pad from the third quarter until the end of the year while still maintaining our previously raised production guidance.

Antero 的資本計畫為我們未來的發展計畫提供了重要的靈活性。鑑於目前的天然氣定價，我們選擇將平台的完工從第三季推遲到年底，同時仍維持先前提高的產量指引。

In addition, we now plan to defer completion of a second pad that has been drilled and was originally scheduled to be completed in the first quarter of 2025. These two pads are dryer gas pads with less liquids and therefore require higher natural gas prices to incentivize us to complete the wells.

此外，我們現在計劃推遲第二個平台的完工，該平台已完成鑽探，原定於 2025 年第一季完成。這兩個墊是乾燥氣墊，液體較少，因此需要更高的天然氣價格來激勵我們完成這些井。

Let's turn to slide number 12 titled Free Cash Flow Uplift that summarizes the benefits of what we've highlighted on the call today. Beginning at the top left graph on the slide, our total capital budget, which is drilling and completion plus land capital is expected to be down over $300 million in 2024 compared to last year while maintaining production.

讓我們看第 12 號投影片，標題為“自由現金流提升”，它總結了我們今天在電話會議上強調的好處。從投影片左上角的圖表開始，我們的總資本預算（包括鑽探和完井加上土地資本）預計到 2024 年將比去年減少 3 億美元以上，同時保持生產。

Moving down to the bottom left-hand graph on the slide, 2024 C3+ NGL prices are expected to average more than $4 per barrel higher than in 2023. We produce approximately 40 million barrels per year so every $1 change in C3+ NGL prices results in a $40 million change in cash flow. Thus, higher C3+ NGL prices has driven an approximate $175 million increase in cash flow. In combination, the result is nearly $500 million of incremental cash flow being generated in 2024 compared to 2023, while maintaining our asset base.

向下移動到幻燈片左下方的圖表，預計 2024 年 C3+ NGL 價格將比 2023 年平均每桶高出 4 美元以上。我們每年生產約 4,000 萬桶，因此 C3+ NGL 價格每變動 1 美元，就會導致現金流量 4,000 萬美元的變動。因此，較高的 C3+ NGL 價格帶動現金流增加約 1.75 億美元。總而言之，與 2023 年相比，2024 年將產生近 5 億美元的增量現金流，同時保持我們的資產基礎。

These attributes allow us to remain approximately free cash flow neutral in 2024 despite being unhedged in a $2.25 natural gas price environment, while providing significant free cash flow upside in 2025 based on today's strip.

這些屬性使我們能夠在 2024 年保持大致中性的自由現金流，儘管在 2.25 美元的天然氣價格環境中沒有對沖，同時根據今天的剝離，在 2025 年提供顯著的自由現金流上行空間。

With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

現在，我將把電話轉給接線員詢問問題。

(Operator Instructions) Bertrand, Truth Securities.

（操作員指令）Bertrand，Truth Securities。

I just wanted to take a stab at your guidance right now. It looks like you are not building that many DUCs this year. Obviously, you're delaying those DUC pads. But what are your views on maybe mirroring some of your peers where they're building a backlog of either DUCs or turn in lines and maybe providing a spring in the future for higher prices?

我現在只是想嘗試你的指導。看來您今年沒有建造那麼多 DUC。顯然，你正在推遲那些 DUC 墊。但是，您是否會效仿您的一些同行，他們正在積壓 DUC 或上交訂單，並可能為未來提供更高的價格？

Well, that's actually what's happened, Bert, in 2024. We've built -- right now, we have two pads, two DUC pads with 12 wells on them that we're not completing this year. One was scheduled to be completed in the third quarter, the other one in the first. Right now, those are to be determined when we complete them based on natural gas prices.

嗯，伯特，這確實是 2024 年發生的事。我們現在已經建造了兩個平台，兩個 DUC 平台，上面有 12 個井，但我們今年尚未完成。一個計劃在第三季完成，另一個計劃在第一季完成。目前，這些要根據天然氣價格完成後才能確定。

Okay. And that would be the extent you don't want to really go past two pads and build kind of some sort of larger program?

好的。這就是您不想真正超越兩個墊並構建某種更大的程序的程度嗎？

Well, we just run a two-rig program. So whatever that generates versus a one completion crew program is how the DUCs build, and that's how we build two pads this year. So if we continue just to run one completion crude next year, we'll continue to build further pads.

好吧，我們只是運行一個兩台設備的程式。因此，與單人完成機組計畫相比，無論產生什麼，DUC 都是如何建造的，這就是我們今年建造兩個發射台的方式。因此，如果我們明年繼續只運行一個完井原油，我們將繼續建造更多的油田。

That makes perfect sense. And then could you maybe elaborate on your buyback strategy? Obviously, this year has been pretty rough on the gas side. I think your liquids have done great holding you up. But we, and the Street as well, forecast a pretty strong full-year '25. Are you guys champing up a bit, waiting for that to come? Or is there any logic to maybe buying before the free cash flow shows up? Or is that maybe fiscal year responsible?

這是完全有道理的。那麼能否詳細說明一下您的回購策略？顯然，今年天然氣的情況相當艱難。我認為你的液體對你起到了很好的支撐作用。但我們以及華爾街都預測 25 年全年的表現相當強勁。小夥伴們是不是已經迫不及待地等待這一天的到來呢？或者在自由現金流出現之前是否有可能買進的邏輯？或者這可能是財政年度的責任？

No. We are just made investment grade this year, and part of that, the plan was communicated that the first $600 million of free cash flow will be to reduce debt. That's essentially to take our credit facility down to 0, and then we have 2026 notes of approximately $97 million, I think, that are still outstanding. So in combination at $600 million of debt, and that's the first call on the free cash flow. Then after that, the majority of free cash flow will be for buybacks.

不。我們今年剛獲得投資評級，其中一部分是，該計劃傳達的第一批 6 億美元的自由現金流將用於減少債務。這實質上是將我們的信貸額度降至 0，然後我們還有 2026 年的票據，金額約為 9,700 萬美元，我認為這些票據仍然未償還。因此，總計 6 億美元的債務，這是對自由現金流的第一個要求。此後，大部分自由現金流將用於回購。

Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan.

阿倫‧賈亞拉姆，摩根大通。

Arun Jayaram with JPM. I had a question just on the Northeast LPG kind of export advantage slide. Dave, in terms of maintaining or sustaining this nice premium that you benefited from for the last couple of quarters, what's your expectation in terms of the timing of the Gulf Coast export capacity increases? And how do you think about how the premium will play out in 2025?

阿倫·賈亞拉姆 (Arun Jayaram) 與摩根大通 (JPM) 合作。我有一個關於東北液化石油氣出口優勢幻燈片的問題。戴夫，就維持或維持您在過去幾季中受益的良好溢價而言，您對墨西哥灣沿岸出口能力增加的時間有何期望？您如何看待 2025 年溢價將如何發揮？

Yes. Thanks, Arun. So in that slide, the first step-up you see we've got illustrated there is July 1. I think it's currently guidance of around mid '25 or second half of '25 from that particular midstream party. And then the other, the next big step is shown there is January 1, '26. So we certainly think until you see some expansion capacity, there's -- we're running at max here in the US with NGL production up year over year. So that pressure is there, and we think it will continue until there's some kind of relief of that constraint.

是的。謝謝，阿倫。因此，在那張投影片中，我們展示的第一個步驟是 7 月 1 日。我認為目前的指導是 25 年中期或 25 年下半年來自特定中游政黨的指導。然後另一個，下一個重大步驟是 26 年 1 月 1 日。因此，我們當然認為，在看到一些產能擴張之前，我們在美國正以最大產能運行，液化天然氣產量逐年增加。因此，這種壓力是存在的，我們認為這種壓力將持續下去，直到這種限制得到某種程度的緩解。

Another thing I would just caution people on when you look at that LPG export capacity growth, coming in '25 and '26, a lot of that capacity is able to do multiple products. So first, they may do LPG, but we think over time, you'll see a lot of that migrate to more like ethane. So the additional capacity is going to be needed to be built in the US to kind of keep this from continuing to happen. But certainly, for us being in the northeast, that's one of the benefits we have when these type situations occur, we're not constrained.

我要提醒人們的另一件事是，當你看到 25 年和 26 年液化石油氣出口產能的成長時，其中很大一部分產能能夠生產多種產品。首先，他們可能會生產液化石油氣，但我們認為隨著時間的推移，你會看到很多液化石油氣遷移到更像乙烷的產品。因此，美國需要增加產能，以防止這種情況繼續發生。但當然，對於我們東北地區來說，這是我們在發生這種情況時所擁有的好處之一，我們不受限制。

As we talked about on prior calls, we can get everything we want to the market, so the export market. So we'll continue to do that. And yes, see what we can do with our strategy. But so far, they've done a good job when these have appeared of always capturing it.

正如我們在之前的電話中談到的，我們可以將我們想要的一切產品推向市場，即出口市場。所以我們將繼續這樣做。是的，看看我們可以用我們的策略做什麼。但到目前為止，當這些出現時，他們總是能捕捉到它，他們做得很好。

Okay. Mike, maybe one for you. A couple of questions from the buy side in terms of building some DUCs just given, right now, there's not a large kind of call on US gas volumes today, just given the modest storage overhang. But what type of conditions are you guys looking for? Is it price in terms of those 12 DUCs that you're building in this current software commodity price environment? Just is there a price signal? Help us understand what would cause you to complete those wells?

好的。麥克，也許有一個適合你。買方剛剛提出了關於建造一些 DUC 的幾個問題，目前，鑑於存儲量適度過剩，今天對美國天然氣產量的需求並不大。但是你們正在尋找什麼樣的條件呢？它的價格是按照您在當前軟體商品價格環境中建立的 12 個 DUC 來計算的嗎？只是有價格訊號嗎？幫助我們了解什麼會導致您完成這些井？

Yes. Arun, obviously, we really focus on the very high BTU liquids in our typical program. That's 1,275 Btu plus. And with that and $40 C3+ NGL, that's really kind of our breakeven level at $2.20. With these pads are more along the 1,200 Btu spectrum. So when you do that on $40 C3+ NGLs, you need 250 gas and higher. That's where the strip is.

是的。阿倫，顯然，我們在典型計劃中真正關注的是非常高 BTU 的液體。也就是 1,275 Btu 以上。加上 40 美元的 C3+ NGL，這確實是我們 2.2​​0 美元的盈虧平衡水平。這些墊的功率範圍更接近 1,200 Btu。因此，當您使用 40 美元的 C3+ NGL 執行此操作時，您需要 250 天然氣或更多。那就是地帶。

So it would suggest that we complete those in 2025, but we're cautious around the strip and being unhedged. We wait and it's pretty immediate response when you want to complete them. It's about a 60-day time frame. So you have the ability to look at front month pricing and see where that's headed and your confidence in that. And we're confident that it'll be over 250 gas will complete them.

因此，建議我們在 2025 年完成這些工作，但我們對地帶持謹慎態度，並且沒有對沖。我們會等待，當您想要完成它們時，我們會立即回覆。大約有 60 天的時間範圍。因此，您可以查看即月定價並了解其發展方向以及您對此的信心。我們相信需要超過 250 天然氣才能完成它們。

Leo Mariani, ROTH Capital.

裡奧·馬裡亞尼，羅斯資本。

Just wanted to get a little better sense of how you guys are thinking about maintenance capital Obviously, you guys have reduced CapEx a handful of times during the year. It sounds like a lot of that is efficiencies, which is kind of nice to see. I mean, generally speaking, should we expect production to be relatively flat next year? And is that kind of 2024 CapEx level of around $650 million a reasonable number at this point for maintenance?

只是想更了解你們如何考慮維護資本顯然，你們在這一年中已經減少了幾次資本支出。聽起來很多都是為了提高效率，這是很高興看到的。我的意思是，一般來說，我們是否應該預期明年的產量會相對持平？2024 年 6.5 億美元左右的資本支出水準目前對於維護而言是否合理？

Yes. Right now, what we've maintained, if you recall, in 2022, we produced 3.2 Bcfe a day, and we went to maintenance capital in 2020 and 2021 at those levels. '23, we spent $900 million, but we actually grew 6% to 7% up into the high 3.3 Bcfe a day, but our maintenance capital has always been centered around 3.3 Bcfe a day to 3.4 Bcfe a day. We've been ahead this year based on our efficiencies and well performance, but we still, on the long-term plans, are targeting that 3.3 to 3.4 Bcfe a day.

是的。現在，如果您還記得的話，我們在 2022 年每天生產 3.2 Bcfe，我們在 2020 年和 2021 年按照這些水準投入了維護資本。 '23，我們花了 9 億美元，但實際上我們成長了 6% 到 7%，達到每天 3.3 Bcfe，但我們的維護資本始終集中在每天 3.3 Bcfe 到 3.4 Bcfe。基於我們的效率和良好表現，我們今年一直處於領先地位，但根據長期計劃，我們的目標仍然是每天 3.3 至 3.4 Bcfe。

And when you look out to next year and the year beyond, that's around $700 million of capital. You could be at the $650 million level, but you'd be in the low 3.3s; and the $700 million level you're more in the mid 3.3s. So what we think about it is about $700 million of capital to hold 3.3 to 3.4 flat being at the midpoint.

展望明年和後年，這大約是 7 億美元的資本。你可能會達到 6.5 億美元的水平，但你會處於 3.3 的低水平；而 7 億美元的水準則更接近 3.3 秒。因此，我們認為大約需要 7 億美元的資本來持有 3.3 至 3.4 的中間值。

Okay. That's very helpful for sure. And then just in the near term, I understand some of the caution here on bringing back some of these dry gas patch, so it makes sense to wait for better returns. But if that strategy sort of plays out, can you just give us some directionality in terms of production? I mean, should we expect it to kind of tick down the next couple of quarters as you guys are maybe waiting for a little better gas market?

好的。這肯定非常有幫助。然後就在短期內，我理解關於帶回一些乾燥氣體補丁的一些謹慎態度，因此等待更好的回報是有意義的。但如果這種策略奏效，你能給我們一些製作上的方向嗎？我的意思是，我們是否應該期望它在接下來的幾個季度中有所下降，因為你們可能正在等待更好的天然氣市場？

Yes. I think the guidance at the midpoint would suggest [3.35] for the fourth quarter. That would get you to the midpoint of [3.400] and then that's about where we're at in '25 as well.

是的。我認為中點的指導建議第四季為 [3.35]。這將使你到達 [3.400] 的中點，然後這也是我們在 25 年所處的位置。

Ati Modak, Goldman Sachs.

阿蒂·莫達克，高盛。

As you think of the gas price realizations, anything you can provide on how you are thinking about the marketing strategy over the next few quarters and what we should expect to see?

當您考慮天然氣價格實現時，您能否提供有關您如何考慮未來幾季的行銷策略以及我們應該看到什麼的資訊？

Same marketing strategy that we currently have, which is flow all of our guests as much as we can to the Gulf Coast and to the LNG corridor in the LNG facilities. That's about 75% of the gas and then the remainder really goes to TCO and the Midwest. So all the gas molecules get out of the basin and all of our transport is relatively -- is full. So similar gas strategy. And we expect those premiums to increase as we move forward and the LNG comes on in '25.

我們目前的行銷策略相同，即盡可能將所有客人帶到墨西哥灣沿岸和液化天然氣設施的液化天然氣走廊。這大約佔天然氣的 75%，其餘的則真正流向 TCO 和中西部地區。所以所有的氣體分子都會離開盆地，我們所有的運輸都是相對充滿的。所以類似的氣體策略。我們預計這些保費會隨著我們的前進而增加，並且液化天然氣將在 25 年投入使用。

Got it. And then you talked about the price level for completions of the DUCs that you're deferring into '25. But any incremental color on whether anything you're drilling right now could be potentially deferred? Or is that relatively more liquids focused?

知道了。然後您談到了推遲到 25 年完成的 DUC 的價格水平。但是，關於您現在正在鑽探的任何內容是否有可能推遲的任何增量顏色？還是相對較多的液體集中？

Yes, it's a good question. It's more liquids focused. Those wells that we drilled were -- the 1,200 were some of our last inventory kind of in that middle of our field in the North Canton area. Now we're really -- and we have been really focused on Wetzel County in Tyler County, which is higher Btu content.

是的，這是一個好問題。它更注重液體。我們鑽探的 1,200 口井是我們最後庫存的一些井，位於北坎頓地區油田中部。現在我們真的非常關注泰勒縣的韋策爾縣，那裡的 Btu 含量較高。

Josh Silverstein, UBS.

喬許·西爾弗斯坦，瑞銀集團。

You mentioned before, $100,000-plus savings from a move to an e-fleet. Are you guys now looking to lock in the C3s for next year? Or is there something else that you want to continue testing with it before locking then for next year?

您之前提到過，遷移到電子車隊可以節省 10 萬美元以上。你們現在打算鎖定明年的 C3 嗎？或者您還想在明年鎖定之前繼續測試其他內容嗎？

Yes, it's a two-pad trial. We've done one pad that went well. We're on our second pad. So once that's completed, we'll evaluate and potentially lock that in for next year.

是的，這是一個兩塊板的試驗。我們已經做了一張效果很好的墊子。我們在第二個墊子上。因此，一旦完成，我們將進行評估並可能鎖定明年。

Got it. And then just on the hedging strategy, you remain unhedged in the forward outlook right now. I understand not wanting to be hedged next year with the strip almost down at $3. But what about 2026 with pricing still over the [3.50] mark? Do you foresee an opportunity to start locking some gains for them or try to just remain unhedged going forward?

知道了。然後就對沖策略而言，您目前對未來前景仍然沒有對沖。我知道明年該條帶價格幾乎跌至 3 美元，我不想進行對沖。但 2026 年定價仍高於 [3.50] 的情況又如何呢？您是否預見到有機會開始為他們鎖定一些收益，或嘗試在未來保持不對沖？

Well, we're keeping an eye on the curve, of course, and there's some contango in the curve, as you know, early on before it flattens out to give some optimism. So we're watching it, and we may lock in, no promises, but we continue to watch it and look for threshold gas prices that will improve the economics.

嗯，當然，我們正在密切關注曲線，正如你所知，曲線中存在一些期貨溢價，在它趨於平緩以帶來一些樂觀情緒之前。因此，我們正在觀察它，我們可能會鎖定，沒有任何承諾，但我們會繼續觀察它並尋找將改善經濟的天然氣價格門檻。

Kevin MacCurdy, Pickering Energy Partners.

凱文·麥克科迪，皮克林能源合作夥伴。

With yesterday's release, you brought the midpoint of your 2024 CapEx down by $25 million. I wonder if you have the rough breakout of how much of that reduction was driven by efficiencies compared to the deferred turn in lines?

透過昨天的發布，您將 2024 年資本支出中位數降低了 2500 萬美元。我想知道您是否粗略地了解了與延遲的生產線週轉相比，有多少減少是由效率驅動的？

Yes, $15 million is efficiencies, $10 million is the turn in lines. The [$650 million] assumes a 50-50 chance whether we complete that pad at year-end versus the first quarter. So about $10 million of it is a deferral and then $15 million is the completion efficiencies and drilling efficiencies.

是的，1500 萬美元是效率，1000 萬美元是生產線輪換。[6.5 億美元] 假設我們在年底完成該墊子的機會與第一季相比為 50-50。因此，其中約 1000 萬美元是延期費用，然後 1500 萬美元是完井效率和鑽井效率。

That's helpful. And what are the impacts of those two items on your 2025 budget? That $700 million D&C maintenance CapEx number you mentioned earlier, I think that's a little better than you had communicated previously. I just want to confirm that that $700 million number kind of includes DUCs and the efficiency gains?

這很有幫助。這兩項對您 2025 年預算有何影響？您之前提到的 7 億美元的 D&C 維護資本支出數字，我認為這比您之前傳達的要好一些。我只是想確認一下，這 7 億美元包括 DUC 和效率增益？

It does. We feel confident in incorporating that now. So those efficiencies. I mean, our well costs in the third quarter were the lowest well cost per foot we've had since 2021. So we're rolling that into 2025. 2025, the lateral lengths are slightly shorter than this year.

確實如此。我們現在有信心將其納入其中。所以這些效率。我的意思是，我們第三季的井成本是自 2021 年以來每英尺井成本最低的。所以我們將其推遲到 2025 年。

So on a per foot basis, it equates to '24, but we have rolled those efficiencies in 12 stages per day, drilling the 10,000 feet of lateral in less than 5 days that we achieved in '24 in the very efficient rig moves and completion crew moves. So we're excited about it, and it has resulted in lower capital in '25.

因此，以每英尺計算，它相當於24 年，但我們每天分12 個階段提高了這些效率，在不到5 天內鑽了10,000 英尺的橫向鑽井，這是我們在24 年通過非常高效的鑽機移動和完井實現的船員移動。所以我們對此感到興奮，它導致 25 年資本減少。

David Deckelbaum, Cowen.

大衛‧德克爾鮑姆，考恩。

Mike, just a quick one. Can you just refresh us on the delta on the benefit of the drilling carry that was in '24 that's not recurring in '25, I guess, for apples-to-apples, and that maintenance program is around $50 million?

麥克，請快速說一下。您能否向我們介紹一下 24 年鑽探帶來的好處，我猜，25 年不會再出現，而且維護計劃約為 5000 萬美元？

Yes, it's actually $30 million, is what our latest calculation on that. You're [$50 million] may be at the 20% level. And when we think about it, we think about it more in the 15% level, which is where it was at before the weakness in prices in '24. So it's about $30 million. So the $700 million-ish numbers and the low $700 million doesn't assume a drilling JV.

是的，實際上是 3000 萬美元，這是我們最新的計算結果。你的 [5000 萬美元] 可能處於 20% 的水平。當我們思考這個問題時，我們更多地考慮 15% 的水平，這是 24 年價格疲軟之前的水平。所以大約是3000萬美元。因此，7 億美元左右的數字和低 7 億美元的數字並不假設有鑽探合資企業。

Perfect. And then just a comment on the maintenance levels. The [3.35] I know this year, obviously, there were periods where you were over [3.4] well in excess, and you experienced quite a bit of productivity gains. Should we think about that forward maintenance level as not necessarily capitalizing those or continuing those efficiency assumptions or performance assumptions? Or is it more of a function of shifting more activity towards higher Btu content?

完美的。然後只是對維護等級的評論。我知道今年的 [3.35] 顯然，在某些時期你的水平遠遠超過了 [3.4]，並且你經歷了相當多的生產力提升。我們是否應該將遠期維護水準視為不一定要資本化或繼續這些效率假設或績效假設？或者它更多的是把更多的活動轉向更高的 Btu 含量？

No, we're just lowering levels of activity needed to try to get capital in as low as possible to maintain that [3.3 to 3.4]. Paul mentioned in his comments of cycle times. We didn't necessarily have those when we are pouring our capital budgets in '23 and '24. We have captured those for '25 and thus we can have lower capital activity and maintain that production level. So we are capturing it. We're just trying to solve for what's the lowest capital possible to maintain that 3.3 to 3.4 Bcfe a day.

不，我們只是降低了所需的活動水平，以盡可能減少資本投入以維持這一目標[3.3至3.4]。保羅在他的評論中提到了周期時間。當我們在 23 年和 24 年投入資本預算時，我們不一定有這些。我們已經捕捉到了 25 年的情況，因此我們可以減少資本活動並維持生產水準。所以我們正在捕捉它。我們只是想解決維持每天 3.3 到 3.4 Bcfe 的最低資本可能是多少。

This will conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Brendan for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回布倫丹發表閉幕詞。

Yes. Thank you for joining us on today's call. Please reach out with any further questions. Thank you.

是的。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。如有任何其他問題，請與我們聯絡。謝謝。

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，感謝您的參與。