Antero Resources Corporation (AR) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Antero Resources First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

各位好，歡迎參加 Antero Resources 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）提醒各位，本次會議將被錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Brendan Krueger, Vice President of Finance and Treasurer of Antero Resources and Chief Financial Officer of Antero Midstream. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很榮幸介紹 Antero Resources 財務副總裁兼財務主管，以及 Antero Midstream 財務長 Brendan Krueger。謝謝。您可以開始了。

Good morning. Thank you for joining us for Antero's First Quarter 2024 Investor Conference Call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operating highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A.

早安。感謝各位參加 Antero 2024 年第一季投資人電話會議。我們將花幾分鐘回顧財務與營運重點，之後開放問答。

I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteroresources.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

我也想請各位前往我們網站首頁 www.anteroresources.com，我們已提供一份獨立的財報電話會議簡報，將在今天的會議中進行說明。

Today's call may contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures. Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman, CEO and President; Michael Kennedy, CFO; Dave Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing and Transportation; and Justin Fowler, Senior Vice President of Natural Gas Marketing.

今天的會議可能包含某些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。請參閱我們的財報新聞稿，以取得關於此類指標的重要揭露資訊，包括與最可比 GAAP 財務衡量指標的調節表。今天與我一同出席的有：董事長、執行長兼總裁 Paul Rady；財務長 Michael Kennedy；液體行銷與運輸資深副總裁 Dave Cannelongo；以及天然氣行銷資深副總裁 Justin Fowler。

I will now turn the call over to Paul.

接下來我把電話交給 Paul。

Thank you, Brendan. Good morning, everyone. I'll start my comments on Slide #3 titled, "Drilling and Completion Efficiencies." As I started my comments off last quarter, the year 2023 was a transformational year for Antero for operational efficiency gains. This year, 2024, continues that trend.

謝謝你，Brendan。各位早安。我將從第 3 張投影片「鑽井與完井效率」開始。正如我在上一季開場所說，2023 年對 Antero 而言是營運效率大幅提升、具有轉型意義的一年。而 2024 年延續了這個趨勢。

Starting with the chart on the top left-hand side of the slide, days per 10,000 lateral feet drilled averaged 5.4 days during the first quarter, down from 5.5 days in 2023. On the completion side, we averaged a quarterly record of 11.3 stages per day during the first quarter, an increase from the pace in 2023 of just under 11 stages per day. These operational improvements result in shorter cycle times, as shown on the bottom of the page. Our year-to-date cycle time per pad is currently trending ahead of last year's 2023 average.

先看投影片左上方的圖表，每鑽進 10,000 英尺水平段的平均天數在第一季為 5.4 天，低於 2023 年的 5.5 天。在完井方面，我們第一季平均達到每日本季紀錄的 11.3 個段次（stages），高於 2023 年每日本不到 11 個段次的速度。這些營運改善帶來更短的週期時間，如頁面下方所示。我們今年迄今每個井場（pad）的週期時間目前趨勢優於去年 2023 年的平均水準。

There are many inputs that lead to these operational improvements as every single line item gets examined by our team. However, the most impactful change in 2024 has been improved efficiency in zipper swaps that allows us to move from well to well on a pad without having any true downtime. We estimate that this new completion technology will save more than an hour of pumping time each day and will result in further increases in completion times.

造成這些營運改善的因素很多，因為我們團隊會檢視每一個成本與作業項目。不過，2024 年最具影響力的改變，是拉鍊式切換（zipper swaps）效率提升，使我們能在同一井場上於不同井之間移動而幾乎沒有真正的停工時間。我們估計這項新的完井技術每天可節省超過一小時的泵送時間，並將進一步提升完井速度。

Our operations also benefit from Antero Midstream's water infrastructure, providing industry-leading water deliverability rates for our completions. Avoiding the use of water trucks significantly reduces pad site congestion that we would otherwise get from water and sand trucks accessing the pad, something that many of our peers have to contend with. Now let's look at how these improvements led to our peer-leading capital efficiency.

我們的營運也受惠於 Antero Midstream 的供水基礎設施，為完井作業提供業界領先的供水輸送能力。避免使用水車可大幅降低井場壅塞，否則水車與砂車進出井場會造成擁堵，這是許多同業必須面對的問題。接下來我們看看這些改善如何帶來同業領先的資本效率。

The chart on Slide #4 compares capital efficiency of the natural gas peer group. Put simply, this is the amount of capital required to achieve a maintenance level of production. Antero has the lowest capital per Mcf equivalent of its peer group at just $0.55 per Mcfe. This is 40% below the peer average of $0.90 per Mcfe. Our best-in-class operating efficiency, combined with significant liquids exposure, led to positive free cash flow during the first quarter and is expected to generate free cash flow for the full year.

第 4 張投影片的圖表比較天然氣同業群的資本效率。簡單來說，這是達到維持產量水準所需的資本投入。Antero 在同業中每 Mcf 當量所需資本最低，僅為每 Mcfe 0.55 美元，較同業平均每 Mcfe 0.90 美元低 40%。我們同級最佳的營運效率，加上顯著的液體產品曝險，使第一季產生正向自由現金流，並預期全年都能產生自由現金流。

Now to touch on the current liquids and natural gas liquids or NGL fundamentals, I will turn it over to our Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing and Transportation, Dave Cannelongo for his comments.

接下來談目前液體與天然氣液體（NGL）的基本面，我將把時間交給液體行銷與運輸資深副總裁 Dave Cannelongo。

Thanks, Paul. The start of 2024 demonstrated improved fundamentals for liquids. Ongoing geopolitical tension, particularly in the Middle East, has increased the risk premium on crude pricing in 2024 year-to-date. Internationally, the canal related challenges seen last year have diminished, but global geopolitical tensions remain high. On the domestic front, record propane demand occurred simultaneously with significant January freeze-offs drawing down storage and resulting in upward pressure on propane prices.

謝謝你，Paul。2024 年開局顯示液體產品基本面改善。持續的地緣政治緊張，特別是中東地區，提升了 2024 年迄今原油價格的風險溢價。國際方面，去年看到的運河相關挑戰已減弱，但全球地緣政治緊張仍然偏高。國內方面，創紀錄的丙烷需求與 1 月嚴寒造成的大量停產（freeze-offs）同時發生，導致庫存下降並對丙烷價格形成上行壓力。

Propane as a percentage of WTI has averaged 44% since the start of this year compared with 36% in the fourth quarter of 2023. The Exports have remained a driving force in the propane market and are showing strong year-over-year growth driven by growing global demand. This year, China PDH build-out continues to progress with 3 new facilities placed in service in the first quarter and another 3 expected to start up there in the second quarter totaling nearly 170,000 barrels per day of capacity additions in the first half of 2024. At the same time, propane exports have averaged 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024 year-to-date, an increase of 14% over the average in 2023.

今年以來，丙烷相對 WTI 的比例平均為 44%，高於 2023 年第四季的 36%。出口仍是丙烷市場的主要驅動力，並在全球需求成長帶動下呈現強勁的年增幅。今年中國 PDH（丙烷脫氫）擴建持續推進，第一季已有 3 座新設施投產，第二季預計再有 3 座啟動，2024 年上半年合計新增近 170,000 桶/日的產能。同時，2024 年迄今丙烷出口平均為 180 萬桶/日，較 2023 年平均增加 14%。

Notably, propane exports reported an all-time record high this week at over 2.3 million barrels per day. This export growth is depicted on Slide 5. The chart illustrates that the U.S. remains the most important source of waterborne export LPG to meet fast-growing global demand. As a reminder, Antero exports over 50% of our C3+ production skewed heavily towards propane directly out of the Marcus Hook terminal in Pennsylvania.

值得注意的是，本週公布的丙烷出口創下歷史新高，超過 230 萬桶/日。第 5 張投影片呈現了這項出口成長。圖表顯示，美國仍是滿足快速成長的全球需求之海運出口 LPG 最重要的來源。提醒各位，Antero 將超過 50% 的 C3+ 產量出口，且以丙烷為主，直接自賓州 Marcus Hook 終端出口。

This year, we have elected to sell a greater portion of our waterborne barrels against international indices as well as in the spot market instead of entering into longer Mont Belvieu link term deals. In the event that Mont Belvieu propane prices disconnect from Europe and Asian pricing due to dock constraints or rising domestic storage levels, Antero is well positioned to avoid additional Mont Belvieu exposure. The strength in international pricing has allowed us to increase our guidance for full year 2024 C3+ differentials to a premium to Mont Belvieu pricing.

今年我們選擇將較大比例的海運出口量以國際指數定價以及現貨市場銷售，而非簽訂較長期、與 Mont Belvieu 連動的合約。若因碼頭限制或國內庫存上升，導致 Mont Belvieu 丙烷價格與歐洲及亞洲價格脫鉤，Antero 具備良好條件以避免額外的 Mont Belvieu 曝險。國際價格走強也使我們上調 2024 年全年 C3+ 價差指引，預期相對 Mont Belvieu 定價呈現溢價。

As Paul just touched on, our first quarter results benefited from our significant exposure to liquids prices. Slide #6 illustrates the approximately 125,000 barrels per day of C3+ NGLs plus condensate that we produce. You can see the breakout of those products in the barrel on the left. The barrel on the right-hand side of the slide separates the approximately 40,000 barrels per day of liquids that are closely linked to WTI oil prices.

如 Paul 剛才提到，我們第一季業績受惠於對液體價格的顯著曝險。第 6 張投影片顯示我們約 125,000 桶/日的 C3+ NGL 加上凝析油產量。左側的桶狀圖可看到各產品的拆分。投影片右側的桶狀圖則將其中約 40,000 桶/日、與 WTI 原油價格高度連動的液體分離出來。

This includes IsoButane, natural gasoline and condensate. Butane markets have also been a strong tailwind to Antero's C3+ realizations mainly due to implications of the Tier 3 gasoline specifications enacted in the U.S. Many U.S. refiners are unable to desulfurize gasoline down to 10 parts per million without also downgrading the octane of their motor gasoline. As a result, there is a strong demand for octane enhancement products made with butanes as feedstock.

這包括異丁烷（IsoButane）、天然汽油（natural gasoline）與凝析油。丁烷市場也成為推升 Antero C3+ 實現價格的強勁順風，主要原因是美國實施的 Tier 3 汽油規格所帶來的影響。許多美國煉油商無法在不降低車用汽油辛烷值的情況下，將汽油脫硫至每百萬分之十（10 ppm）。因此，市場對以丁烷作為原料製成的辛烷值提升產品需求強勁。

IsoButane has been particularly strong as it is used in the production of alkylate, which is a key octane enhancement product. Just this morning, you've seen IsoButane trade at over $0.40 per gallon premium to normal butane. In conclusion, Antero's NGL strategy, product diversification and pricing is distinct when compared to other producers. Supportive fundamentals witnessed this past quarter illustrate the promising signs that are ahead.

異丁烷表現尤其強勁，因其用於生產烷基化油（alkylate），而烷基化油是關鍵的辛烷值提升產品。就在今天早上，各位已看到異丁烷成交價較正丁烷溢價超過每加侖 0.40 美元。總結來說，Antero 的 NGL 策略、產品多元化與定價方式，相較其他生產商具有差異化。過去一季所見的有利基本面，顯示未來前景可期。

With that, I'll turn it over to our Senior Vice President of Natural Gas Marketing, Justin Fowler, to discuss the natural gas market.

接下來，我把時間交給天然氣行銷資深副總裁 Justin Fowler，請他談談天然氣市場。

Thanks, Dave. I'd like to open it up by turning to Slide #7 titled, "Not all Transport to the U.S. Gulf Coast is Equal." As a reminder, we sell substantially all of our natural gas out of basin, including approximately 75% to the LNG corridor. Our firm transportation portfolio provides us with direct exposure to growing LNG demand along the Gulf Coast and importantly, in the Tier 1 pricing points in the vicinity of the major LNG facilities.

謝謝，Dave。我想先從第 7 頁投影片開始，標題為「並非所有運往美國墨西哥灣沿岸的運輸都一樣」。提醒一下，我們幾乎所有天然氣銷售都在盆地外進行，其中約 75% 銷往 LNG 走廊。我們的固定運輸（firm transportation）組合讓我們能直接受惠於墨西哥灣沿岸日益成長的 LNG 需求，更重要的是，能在主要 LNG 設施附近的一級（Tier 1）定價點取得曝險。

With several new LNG facilities starting up over the next year, we expect to see a widening spread between sales points near Henry Hub and sales points outside of this premium market. The blue call out box highlights a recent quote from a research commodity team that emphasizes this view. They believe sales points within 100 miles of Henry Hub can see prices comfortably above $5 per MMBtu, while sales points outside of that range could price at $3 to $4 per MMBtu.

隨著未來一年將有數座新的 LNG 設施啟動，我們預期亨利樞紐（Henry Hub）附近的銷售點與此高價市場之外的銷售點之間的價差將擴大。藍色重點框標示了一段近期研究型大宗商品團隊的引述，強調了這個觀點。他們認為，距離 Henry Hub 100 英里內的銷售點，價格可望輕鬆高於每 MMBtu 5 美元；而超出該範圍的銷售點，價格可能落在每 MMBtu 3 至 4 美元。

Looking closely at this map, the yellow stars highlight Antero sales points and are located well within this 100-mile range to Henry Hub. These sales points were strategically selected beginning over 10 years ago in order to access the feeder lines at the doorstep of the LNG fairway. The chart on the top left-hand side of this slide highlights that Antero sell 75% of our gas at Henry Hub link prices while our peers, on average, sell less than 15% of their natural gas into this premium market.

仔細看這張地圖，黃色星號標示的是 Antero 的銷售點，且都位於距離 Henry Hub 100 英里範圍內。這些銷售點早在 10 多年前就開始策略性布局，以便在 LNG 走廊門口取得支線管線（feeder lines）的接入。此投影片左上方的圖表顯示，Antero 有 75% 的天然氣以 Henry Hub 連結價格（link prices）出售；而同業平均只有不到 15% 的天然氣能銷往這個高價市場。

Looking ahead over the next 2 years as LNG export capacity increases by nearly 6 Bcf per day, in addition to an expected rise in NYMEX pricing, we expect Antero sales points to be priced at even higher premiums than NYMEX as these LNG facilities compete for supply. An example of this is the pricing along the TGP 500L pool in the summer of 2025 and 2026. We launched those summer premiums increased to $0.40 about Henry Hub on a financial basis alone in anticipation of Venture Global's Plaquemine facility start up in the next few months.

展望未來兩年，隨著 LNG 出口產能增加近每日 6 Bcf，再加上預期 NYMEX 價格上升，我們預期當這些 LNG 設施競相爭取供應時，Antero 的銷售點相對 NYMEX 的溢價將更高。例子之一是 2025 與 2026 年夏季 TGP 500L 池（pool）的定價。我們已將這些夏季溢價在僅以金融基礎（financial basis alone）衡量下，提高到較 Henry Hub 高 0.40 美元，以因應未來幾個月 Venture Global 的 Plaquemine 設施啟動。

Just last year, those same implied summer premiums were only $0.03 above NYMEX. Venture Global received FERC approval this week to begin immediately introducing gas into the feeder Gator Express pipeline that brings supply from the TGP 500L pool to the Plaquemine LNG facility. This initial feed gas requirement will potentially lead to higher demand and pricing in the TGP 500 region as well as NYMEX Henry Hub prices this summer. According to Market Intelligence, the Tennessee Gas Pipeline Phase 1, Evangeline Pass project that feeds the Plaquemine LNG facility, is expected to be online by July 1, 2024, with capacity of $900 million per day. As a reminder, Antero funds $570 million per day of the firm delivery to the 500L pool or 63% of the supply that will feed the Phase 1 project capacity.

就在去年，同樣的隱含夏季溢價僅比 NYMEX 高 0.03 美元。本週 Venture Global 已取得 FERC 核准，可立即開始將天然氣導入 Gator Express 支線管線（feeder）——該管線把供應從 TGP 500L 池輸送至 Plaquemine LNG 設施。這項初期進料氣（feed gas）需求，可能在今年夏季推升 TGP 500 區域以及 NYMEX Henry Hub 的需求與價格。根據 Market Intelligence，為 Plaquemine LNG 設施供氣的 Tennessee Gas Pipeline 第一階段 Evangeline Pass 專案，預計於 2024 年 7 月 1 日上線，產能為每日 900 MMcf。提醒一下，Antero 以固定交付（firm delivery）方式向 500L 池供應每日 570 MMcf，約占第一階段專案產能供應的 63%。

Next, I would like to touch on the outlook for power burn demand. The chart on Slide #8 depicts a third-party estimate for the increasing natural gas power demand as a result of AI data centers, crypto mining and electric vehicles. It projects nearly 8 Bcf of incremental natural gas demand through 2030 in its base case scenario or 14% growth per year.

接下來，我想談談發電用氣（power burn）需求的展望。第 8 頁投影片的圖表呈現第三方對天然氣發電需求增加的估計，增長動因包括 AI 資料中心、加密貨幣挖礦以及電動車。其基準情境預估，到 2030 年將新增近每日 8 Bcf 的天然氣需求，或每年成長 14%。

Next, turning to the chart on Slide #9. We illustrate the significant expected natural gas demand growth coming from LNG exports, Mexico exports, along with this increasing electric power generation need. Combined, these are expected to result in an increase in demand of 30 Bcf by 2030, an increase of over 100% from the same demand sources today. It is in the early innings of increasing electrification demand. We believe there has been a structural shift toward reliable, clean and affordable natural gas that will continue to increase power burn demand annually going forward.

接著看第 9 頁投影片的圖表。我們展示了預期天然氣需求的顯著成長來源，包括 LNG 出口、對墨西哥出口，以及不斷增加的發電需求。合計而言，預期到 2030 年需求將增加每日 30 Bcf，較目前相同需求來源增加逾 100%。電氣化需求的成長仍在初期階段。我們認為市場已出現結構性轉變，朝向可靠、潔淨且可負擔的天然氣，未來將持續推升每年的發電用氣需求。

This demand grade, combined with rising LNG and Mexico exports, creates a significantly higher base demand level than we have ever experienced in the past. We expect these fundamentals will provide support to natural gas prices and lead to periods of higher prices in the coming years. With that, I will turn it over to Mike Kennedy, Antero's CFO.

這種需求等級（demand grade），再加上 LNG 與對墨西哥出口的上升，將形成我們過去從未經歷過、顯著更高的基礎需求水準。我們預期這些基本面將支撐天然氣價格，並在未來幾年帶來價格走高的時期。接下來我把時間交給 Antero 的財務長 Mike Kennedy。

Thanks, Justin. I'd like to start with Slide #10 and our continued focus on reducing absolute debt. We plan to allocate future free cash flow to paying down the remainder of the credit facility balance and the higher coupon near-term notes we have outstanding. We will then be in a position to return to our 50-50 strategy of 50% of free cash flow going to debt reduction and 50% going towards our share repurchase program.

謝謝，Justin。我想從第 10 頁投影片開始，談我們持續聚焦於降低絕對負債。我們計畫將未來自由現金流用於償還剩餘的循環信貸（credit facility）餘額，以及我們尚未償還、票息較高的近期到期票據。之後，我們將有條件回到 50/50 策略：自由現金流的 50% 用於減債，另外 50% 用於股票回購計畫。

Turning to Slide #11. This slide compares 2024 free cash flow breakeven levels. We highlighted our peer-leading breakeven price shown on this slide during our last conference call. Our $2.27 breakeven level compares to the average NYMEX natural gas price of $2.24 in the first quarter. Despite the low price, Antero generated an unhedged $10 million of free cash flow during the first quarter.

接著看第 11 頁投影片。本頁比較 2024 年自由現金流損益兩平水準。我們在上次電話會議已強調本頁所示、同業領先的損益兩平價格。我們的 2.27 美元損益兩平水準，與第一季 NYMEX 天然氣平均價格 2.24 美元相近。儘管價格偏低，Antero 在第一季仍於未避險（unhedged）情況下產生 1,000 萬美元自由現金流。

Our quarterly results benefited from low maintenance capital requirements and high exposure to liquids. And as shown on this slide, results in the lowest unhedged free cash flow breakeven price among our natural gas peers. I will conclude my comments today with Slide #12 titled ,"Antero Resources: The "Unconstrained" E&P Company." We believe the differentiated strategy that we built here at Antero is set up for success in today's macro backdrop.

我們的季度表現受惠於較低的維持性資本支出需求，以及對液體（liquids）的高曝險。如本頁所示，這使我們在天然氣同業中擁有最低的未避險自由現金流損益兩平價格。我今天的最後一部分將以第 12 頁投影片作結，標題為「Antero Resources：『不受限（Unconstrained）』的 E&P 公司」。我們相信，Antero 所建立的差異化策略，在當前總體環境下已具備成功條件。

We have significant scale with production volumes of 3.4 Bcfe a day and over 20 years of premium inventory. We have integrated upstream and midstream, which provides development reliability and long-term visibility into our program. This is critical in the development of the asset as evidenced by recent transactions in the basin. We have the firm transportation portfolio that allows us to sell 75% of our production to the LNG fairway in the Gulf Coast. Many of our peers lack firm transportation capacity, forcing them to sell gas at discounted prices well back of Henry Hub. The start-up of the Plaquemines LNG terminal this summer is expected to lead to higher prices at our TGP 500 sales point, potentially leading to higher premiums to NYMEX Henry Hub.

我們具備可觀規模，日產量達 3.4 Bcfe，並擁有超過 20 年的優質庫存。我們已整合上游與中游，提供開發的可靠性，並讓我們的計畫具備長期可視性。這對資產開發至關重要，近期盆地內交易也印證了這點。我們擁有固定運輸組合，使我們能將 75% 的產量銷往墨西哥灣沿岸的 LNG 走廊。許多同業缺乏固定運輸能力，被迫在遠低於 Henry Hub 的折價水準出售天然氣。預計今年夏季 Plaquemines LNG 終端啟動，將推升我們 TGP 500 銷售點的價格，並可能帶來相對 NYMEX Henry Hub 更高的溢價。

Lastly, we have the lowest reinvestment rate of our natural gas peer group. This peer-leading capital efficiency drives higher free cash flow conversion. Our low investment rate and high leverage liquids was highlighted during the first quarter when we generated positive free cash flow despite being unhedged at $2.24 NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas price.

最後，我們在天然氣同業中擁有最低的再投資率。這種同業領先的資本效率帶來更高的自由現金流轉換率。我們的低投資率與高液體槓桿在第一季已充分展現：即使在 NYMEX Henry Hub 天然氣價格 2.24 美元且未避險的情況下，我們仍產生正的自由現金流。

With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

接下來，我把電話會議交給主持人進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan.

（主持人指示）我們的第一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 Arun Jayaram。

Maybe one for Justin. Justin, given the strong demand growth potential for gas to the end of the decade, I was wondering maybe if you could comment a little bit more on what you see as kind of advantaged molecules from a margin perspective in this kind of environment. Obviously, historically, Appalachia has garnered a discount just given the lack of takeaway capacity in some of the gas-on-gas competition. But would rising demand in that area for data centers, et cetera, could that start to narrow some of the discounts that we've seen for Appalachia gas?

我可能有一題想問 Justin。Justin，鑑於天然氣需求到本十年末具有強勁的成長潛力，我想請你多談一些，在這樣的環境下，從利潤率角度你認為哪些氣源（molecules）具備相對優勢。顯然，歷史上阿帕拉契亞（Appalachia）因部分地區外運能力不足、在氣對氣競爭下而呈現折價。但若該地區因資料中心等帶動需求上升，是否可能開始縮小我們過去看到的阿帕拉契亞天然氣折價？

Arun, it's Justin. Yes. So when we look at just the FT 2 Bcf down to the LNG corridor, we see those premiums continuing to gain value versus Henry Hub in the outer years. So we think that our delivery points in our Southeast head station, CGT onshore, TGP 500L will continue to be very strong in terms of Appalachia versus AI data centers, et cetera, and the basis compressing and gaining value back towards Henry. Antero will have that ability to sell local production volumes as well if those prices increase seasonally or in different months of the year because we do, again, have a transport position of 75% to the Gulf. So we can measure that on variable costs, et cetera, and make that decision over time.

Arun，我是 Justin。是的。所以當我們只看 FT 2 Bcf 往下到 LNG 走廊時，我們看到那些相對於 Henry Hub 的溢價在較遠期年度持續增值。因此我們認為，我們在東南部首站的交付點、CGT 陸上、TGP 500L，從阿帕拉契亞相對於 AI 資料中心等需求，以及基差收斂並回升至更接近 Henry 的角度來看，將會持續非常強勁。若價格在季節性或一年中不同月份上升，Antero 也將有能力出售本地生產量，因為我們再次強調，有 75% 的運輸部位通往墨西哥灣。因此我們可以用可變成本等來衡量，並隨時間做出該決策。

Great. Just a follow-up on the liquids marketing front. Dave, you mentioned that maybe you're exporting a little bit more than 50% or so of your C3+ molecules, what kind of flex do you have in the system? And if you saw a greater arbitrage, could you flex a higher mix in terms of export volumes? And maybe just give an update on what you're seeing in terms of shipping rates.

很好。再追問一個液體行銷方面的問題。Dave，你提到你們可能出口了略高於 50% 左右的 C3+ 分子，你們系統裡有多大的彈性？如果看到更大的套利空間，你們能否把出口量的組合再往上調？另外也請更新一下你們看到的航運費率情況。

Yes, Arun, we've done that now. This is Dave. We've done that flex, in particular, in the, call it, the shoulder to shoulder season through the summer. So we've -- it will be reported in our second and third quarter results where it shows the amount of volume that we export versus domestic, and those percentages go higher in the summer where we are, at times, well over 80% of our propane in particular, is going to the dock. So we flexed that already. I think there are some ways to take that higher if the market called for it, but we don't have a lot left in the domestic pool during those times of the year to begin with.

是的，Arun，我們現在已經做過了。我是 Dave。我們已經做了那個彈性調整，特別是在所謂的淡旺季交接、一路到夏季這段期間。因此我們——這會在我們第二季與第三季的結果中揭露，會顯示我們出口量相對於內銷的量，而在夏季這些比例會更高；有時候，尤其是丙烷，我們有遠超過 80% 是送到碼頭出口的。所以我們已經做了彈性調整。我認為如果市場需要，還有一些方式可以再提高，但在一年中的那些時段，我們本來留在國內池的量就不多了。

And then on the freight rates, I mean things have improved dramatically since where we were late last year, you had all the concerns about the Panama Canal and how much that was going to de-optimize the global LPG shipping fleet and what actually happened, what we're seeing is more LPG ships getting through the Panama Canal since that announcement was made. I think first, the canal has been able to move more ships, in general, through the canal than they initially had forecasted when they announced those restrictions.

至於運費，我是說，情況自去年年底以來已大幅改善；當時大家都在擔心巴拿馬運河，以及那會在多大程度上使全球 LPG 航運船隊的配置效率下降。而實際發生的是——我們看到自那項公告發布以來，有更多 LPG 船能通過巴拿馬運河。我想首先，運河整體能讓更多船通行，超出他們在宣布那些限制時最初的預測。

So we've seen now freight rates collapsed dramatically from where we were in the fourth quarter. And that's ultimately allowing prices at the dock to be closer linked to the international price. And we had a large build-out of VLGC vessels last year, over 40 VLGCs. We're kind of waiting for that to have its effect, and you're now seeing that today in the forward freight pricing.

因此我們看到運費已從第四季的水準大幅崩跌。這最終使得碼頭價格能更緊密地連結到國際價格。去年我們也大幅擴增了 VLGC 船舶，超過 40 艘 VLGC。我們一直在等那個效應發酵，而你現在在遠期運費報價中就能看到這一點。

Our next question comes from the line of Subhasish Chandra with Benchmark.

我們的下一個問題來自 Benchmark 的 Subhasish Chandra。

Probably for Dave first. Dave, what do you think on dock capacity is? And yes, I mean, that 2.3 million was a shocking number, are we pretty close? And I guess those propane hedges, you kind of added there show some caution through December. Maybe some updated commentary there.

可能先問 Dave。Dave，你認為碼頭產能現在是多少？而且，是的，那個 230 萬的數字很驚人，我們是不是已經很接近上限了？另外我想你們加做的那些丙烷避險，顯示你們對到 12 月仍有些謹慎。能否更新一下相關看法。

Yes. I think we are there on the dock capacity, Subhasish. The number, the 2.3 million, I mean it is a bit of a head scratcher that can happen just kind of based on timing of when ships officially loaded. If they kind of fall a minute into the next week, that can certainly allow a number like that to happen. But we ultimately believe that's well above the kind of average rate that you could run across the U.S. dock. So it's somewhere in that 1.85 million to 1.9 million barrels a day of propane because you still have butane that needs to move across those docks as well.

是的，Subhasish，我認為碼頭產能大致就是那樣。那個數字——230 萬——我的意思是，確實有點讓人摸不著頭緒，但這可能只是因為船舶正式裝載時間點的差異所致。如果剛好晚了一點落到下一週，那確實可能讓那樣的數字出現。但我們最終認為，那遠高於美國碼頭可長期運行的平均速率。所以大概是在每日 185 萬到 190 萬桶的丙烷，因為還有丁烷也需要透過那些碼頭運出。

So we'll see what they're able to hit this summer. It's sometimes when it's hotter, it de-optimizes their refrigeration a bit. So I think we'll expect to see those docks highly utilize this summer, but I think we're or about the levels of what we expect that they can do until the, call it, the second half of next year when there is some expansion projects on the way from the Gulf Coast midstream players.

所以我們會看看今年夏天他們能達到什麼水準。有時天氣更熱時，會讓他們的冷凍系統效率稍微下降。因此我想我們預期今年夏天那些碼頭會高度利用，但我認為在明年下半年之前——屆時墨西哥灣沿岸的中游業者有一些擴建專案將上線——我們大致就會維持在我們認為他們能做到的水準附近。

And then on the hedges, Yes, great question. We've talked about our concerns around propane pricing and kind of a decoupling of Mont Belvieu, if you saw inventory levels rise as a result of these docks being fully utilized. And so we just thought it was prudent to while we do export the vast majority of our propane, we still had some domestic exposure, and we just wanted to be conservative with that and take that risk off the table if we saw things play out similar to what we saw last year when propane was down in the $0.65 per gallon range. I thought it was a wise move at this time.

至於避險，是的，這是個好問題。我們談過我們對丙烷定價的擔憂，以及如果這些碼頭被完全利用、導致庫存水位上升時，Mont Belvieu 可能出現某種程度的脫鉤。因此我們認為審慎起見——雖然我們出口了絕大多數的丙烷，但我們仍有一些國內曝險——我們只是想在這部分保守一些；如果事情演變得像去年那樣、丙烷跌到每加侖 0.65 美元左右，我們就把這個風險先從桌面上移除。我認為此時這是明智之舉。

Yes. But put some context around that's 10,000 barrels a day, which is on 15% of our total propane production because the vast majority gets international pricing.

是的。但補充一下背景，那是每日 10,000 桶，約占我們丙烷總產量的 15%，因為絕大多數都採用國際定價。

That's right.

沒錯。

Right. And Paul, I think on the zipper fracs, just curious, the adoption this year versus prior years? And what does it look like for the balance of the year, maybe percent of well count, percent of TILs, something like that. And sort of why it's come about now, whereas maybe another basin has been more common for a while, is the topology things of that nature.

好的。Paul，關於 zipper fracs（拉鍊式壓裂），我只是好奇今年相較於前幾年的採用情況如何？以及今年剩餘時間看起來會怎樣——例如占井數的百分比、占 TILs 的百分比之類的。還有為什麼現在才開始普及，而其他盆地可能早就比較常見？是否與地形等因素有關。

Yes. So of course, Subhasish, there's -- the zipper fracs have been around for quite a while. But earlier, maybe in a more primitive stage, there's been a lot of decoupling iron and re-hooking it up for different wells. And so we've just found a way to be much more efficient on that. And with the flip of some switches and turning out of some valves, we can flip the zipper frac to different wells as we are pumping. So it's become much more efficient, whereas in the past, it would be at least an hour of downtime when we're changing zipper fracs.

是的。當然，Subhasish，拉鍊式壓裂已經存在相當久了。但早期可能比較原始，需要大量拆卸管匯（iron）再重新接到不同井上。我們只是找到一種方式讓這件事更有效率。透過切換一些開關、轉動一些閥門，我們在泵送時就能把拉鍊式壓裂切換到不同井上。因此效率大幅提升；而過去在更換拉鍊式壓裂時，至少會有一小時的停機時間。

And in terms of sort of application here in the early months of '24, how you visit versus, say, last year?

那就 2024 年前幾個月的應用情況而言，你們相較於例如去年，是怎麼看的？

I think it's a development in the last 6 months to a year where we've perfected it. And it will continue on.

我認為這是在過去 6 個月到 1 年內的發展，我們已把它完善了，而且會持續下去。

Our next question comes from the line of Bert Donnes with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Bert Donnes。

Just wanted to ask around the data center demand question a little bit differently. You've continued to kind of avoid the temptation to go overseas with an LNG contract. Is there may be a thought process that if we see a data center-driven boost, maybe there's no reason to lead to the U.S.? And does that lead you to maybe trying to lock in a long-term contract in the U.S.

我想用稍微不同的方式問一下資料中心需求的問題。你們一直在某種程度上避免去海外簽 LNG 合約的誘惑。是否有一種思考是：如果我們看到由資料中心帶動的需求提升，也許就沒有理由把美國的氣源導向海外？那是否會讓你們更傾向於在美國鎖定一份長期合約？

Yes. No, it wasn't around the data centers. It's just around we're the only company that can really get molecule to the docks or to the LNG actual facilities. So we didn't have any need to enter into long-term contracts around that. We've already done our commitments on the pipeline in itself. And so we just wanted to stay floating in retain optionality for us on what that pricing would look like when they have to compete for our gas. But with the data centers, that actually adds more, obviously, demand for that gas. So that competition just continues to grow.

是的。不，那不是因為資料中心。主要是因為我們是唯一一家真正能把分子（molecule）送到碼頭或 LNG 實際設施的公司。所以我們沒有必要就此簽長期合約。我們在管線本身的承諾已經做完了。因此我們只是想保持浮動、為我們保留選擇權，看看當他們必須為了我們的天然氣競爭時，定價會是什麼樣子。但資料中心確實會增加對天然氣的需求。所以那種競爭只會持續加劇。

Okay. And no interest in maybe boosting legacy Northeast volumes for a long-term contract or anything direct, you'd rather just say indirect for both kind of uplift?

好的。那你們也不考慮透過簽一份長期合約或任何直接方式，來提升東北地區的傳統（legacy）輸送量嗎？你們寧可把兩者的增量都歸類為間接帶動？

Yes. Yes. That's our philosophy, stay in the Gulf Coast. I mean, an interesting thing that it was highlighted in our prepared remarks, TGP, that 500 line we talked about. This time last year, what is that a $0.03 premium for next year, and now it's at $0.40 that is going to continue to go higher. So as it gets closer and closer, you're going to see the premiums continue to go higher in the Gulf Coast, and that's where we sell our gas.

是的。是的。這就是我們的理念：留在墨西哥灣沿岸。我是說，一個有趣的點在我們事先準備的發言裡有特別提到，TGP，我們談到的那條 500 管線。去年這個時候，明年的溢價大概是 0.03 美元，現在已經到 0.40 美元，而且還會繼續往上。隨著時間越來越接近，你會看到墨西哥灣沿岸的溢價持續走高，而那就是我們銷售天然氣的地方。

Great. And then changing gears. On the Marcellus rates, on a per foot basis, it was surprisingly strong quarter-over-quarter they were shorter laterals. Is there may be some logic going on that the shorter laterals are more economic and maybe 18,000-foot laterals are a little bit too long? Or is that just -- it's one data point and not shifting gears?

很好。接著換個話題。關於 Marcellus 的產量（rate），以每英尺來看，季對季表現出乎意料地強，儘管這些是較短的水平段（laterals）。這背後是否有一些邏輯，例如較短的水平段其實更具經濟性，而 18,000 英尺的水平段可能有點太長？還是說——這只是單一數據點，並不代表策略轉向？

Yes. I'd say it's one data point. Generally, the longer laterals are more economic to spread the cost around longer lateral foot, but we're so good drilling and completing these the longer lateral still provide the economics that it would suggest.

是的。我會說這只是單一數據點。一般而言，較長的水平段更具經濟性，因為可以把成本攤在更長的水平段英尺數上；但我們在鑽井與完井方面做得非常好，所以較長水平段仍然能提供其理論上應有的經濟性。

So maybe on the tail end, there will be a stronger later dated production from the longer laterals?

所以也許在後段，較長水平段的後期產量會更強？

Yes. I mean, I would say, a shorter lateral will clean up more quickly, will dewater more quickly. And so it will get to peak rate in a shorter period of time. But over the longer run, as Mike just said, the economics are so much better when we're going out to 16,000, 18,000 and even 20,000 feet. Those are really big wells. And so you wait a little longer until you get to peak rate, but it's worth it.

是的。我的意思是，我會說較短的水平段清理得更快、排水（dewater）也更快，因此能在較短時間內達到峰值產量。但從更長期來看，正如 Mike 剛才說的，當我們把水平段延伸到 16,000、18,000 甚至 20,000 英尺時，經濟性會好很多。那些都是非常大的井。所以你會稍微多等一點才到峰值，但這是值得的。

Our next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Neil Mehta。

I had a couple of questions on capital allocation. The first one on Slide 10, you've done a great job of getting your debt down to this level, and you talk about the next area to deploy free cash flow is to pay down your credit facility balance. So maybe curious on your perspective of how shareholder return specifically buybacks fit into this equation. And given the strengthening of the balance sheet, when do you think you're at that inflection point to buy back stock?

我有幾個關於資本配置的問題。第一個是關於第 10 頁投影片，你們在把債務降到目前水準方面做得很好，而且你們提到下一個部署自由現金流的方向是償還循環信貸（credit facility）的餘額。所以我想了解你們怎麼看股東回報、特別是庫藏股回購，在這個架構中的定位。以及在資產負債表轉強之後，你們認為何時會到達回購股票的拐點？

Yes. I said in the remarks, the first call on that free cash flow is to pay down the credit facility and that near-term maturity in '26. So that's about $500 million. And then after that, we'll return to our 50-50 strategy of paying down debt plus buying back shares. It will depend on commodity prices when we actually achieve those. But based on today's commodity prices, it'd be in the first half of next year.

是的。我在發言裡提到，自由現金流的第一順位用途是償還循環信貸，以及 2026 年的近期到期項目。所以大約是 5 億美元。之後，我們會回到 50/50 的策略：一半用於償債、一半用於回購股票。至於我們實際何時達成，會取決於商品價格。但以今天的商品價格來看，會是在明年上半年。

Helpful. And then we've seen a lot of consolidation across the E&P space, across energy space broadly. You have a really deep inventory. So I would just love your perspective on how do you see Antero fitting within the M&A landscape? And is the right strategy and organic strategy?

很有幫助。接著我們看到 E&P 領域以及更廣泛的能源領域出現大量整併。你們的可開發庫存（inventory）非常深。我想請教你們如何看待 Antero 在併購（M&A）版圖中的定位？以及最合適的策略是否仍是有機成長（organic）策略？

We do believe the right strategy is the organic strategy. You saw we were able to add, I believe, 19 locations in the first quarter, we had $26 million of land. That's highly economic compared to how much locations go for in the M&A landscape. So -- and we continue to consolidate our areas of operation right where we're drilling these terrific wells and just continue to build out our position in the liquids portion of the Marcellus. So we believe that's the best way to add value and continue to increase our 20-year inventory position.

我們確實相信正確的策略是有機成長策略。你看到我們在第一季能新增我記得是 19 個井位（locations），我們投入了 2,600 萬美元做土地（land）。相較於在 M&A 市場上購買井位的成本，這樣的投入非常具經濟性。所以——我們也持續整合我們的營運區域，就在我們鑽這些優質井的地方，並持續擴大我們在 Marcellus 液體（liquids）區塊的布局。因此我們相信這是增加價值、並持續提升我們 20 年庫存部位的最佳方式。

Our next question comes from the line of Jacob Roberts with TPH.

下一個問題來自 TPH 的 Jacob Roberts。

Dave, I wanted to circle back to the liquids market, and I apologize if you did hit on this in your answers, I may have missed it, but I was hoping you could comment just on storage levels at the moment. Specifically, them being above the 5-year it appears as well as the production coming out of PADD 3 and just where do you see those playing out through the summer?

Dave，我想回到液體市場（liquids market）這個話題，如果你在前面的回答已經提到我可能漏聽了先說聲抱歉。我想請你評論一下目前的庫存水位，特別是看起來高於 5 年均值，以及來自 PADD 3 的產量，還有你怎麼看這些在夏季期間的走勢？

Jacob, this is Dave. If you go back to the first quarter, we actually had that polar vortex in January went from the top of the 5-year range to the 5-year average and then kind of continued along that trend until the last 5 or 6 weeks, we've had I would say some pretty unusual EIA data. It didn't really change at all for 1 month, 1.5 months, and then we had significant change last week and then a below expectation build this week. So we are back kind of in that between the 5-year range and the top of the range below last year, but above that 5-year average.

Jacob，我是 Dave。如果你回顧第一季，我們在 1 月其實遇到極地渦旋（polar vortex），庫存從 5 年區間的上緣降到 5 年平均，之後大致沿著那個趨勢走，直到最近 5 到 6 週，我會說 EIA 的數據有些相當不尋常。它在 1 個月到 1 個半月幾乎沒有變化，然後上週出現顯著變動，而本週的增加量又低於預期。所以我們現在大致回到介於 5 年區間與區間上緣之間：低於去年，但高於 5 年平均。

And we'll see what the inflection point looks like, how does that slope rise over the summer. I think there's a lot of different forecasts out there on propane production this year. Hard to say exactly who's right on that. We do pay attention to the rig count in all the basins and watch that. And so that's, again, part of what drove our earlier comments on just taking that small amount of domestic Mont Belvieu propane exposure we have doing some hedging there this year. But sorry, I answered all your questions there, Jacob?

接下來就要看拐點會長什麼樣子、夏季期間那條斜率會怎麼上升。我認為市場上對今年丙烷產量有很多不同的預測，很難說到底誰是對的。我們確實會關注各盆地的鑽機數（rig count）並持續追蹤。所以這也是——再次強調——促使我們先前評論的原因之一：針對我們少量的國內 Mont Belvieu 丙烷曝險，今年做了一些避險。但抱歉，Jacob，我這樣有回答到你所有問題嗎？

Yes, that's perfect. I appreciate it. And just a second question. Can you remind us on the current expected time line of the Martica payments when those thresholds will be hit? And what that ultimately looks like once they are threshold is met?

有的，完全符合。謝謝。我再問第二個問題：你能提醒我們 Martica 付款目前預期的時間表嗎？那些門檻大概何時會被觸及？以及一旦達到門檻後，最終會是什麼樣子？

Yes. As you rightly recall, they've actually -- they no longer participate in our wells that ended March 31, 2023, but there is kind of that runoff of the PDP base. That does revert back to us when they hit certain rates of return. And right now, we're forecasting that to be starting in '26.

是的。正如你正確記得的，他們其實——在 2023 年 3 月 31 日結束後，就不再參與我們的井了，但仍有一段 PDP 基礎產量（PDP base）的遞減（runoff）。當他們達到某些報酬率門檻時，那部分就會回歸到我們這邊。而目前我們預測會從 2026 年開始。

Our next question comes from the line of Kevin MacCurdy with Pickering Energy Partners.

下一個問題來自 Pickering Energy Partners 的 Kevin MacCurdy。

We appreciate all the details you gave on the NGL marketing in the prepared remarks, but my question is, as it relates to your realized prices, it looks like your C3+ prices were much better than the weekly average benchmark pricing. And just curious if there were some onetime items that benefited you in the first quarter versus the benchmark? Or do you expect that premium to continue?

我們很感謝你們在事先準備的發言中提供了關於 NGL 行銷的所有細節。不過我的問題是，關於你們的實現價格（realized prices），看起來你們的 C3+ 價格明顯優於每週平均的基準（benchmark）價格。我想了解第一季是否有一些一次性項目讓你們相對基準受益？還是你們預期這個溢價會持續？

Yes, there aren't any onetime items. We've really switched this year to more international exposure, better contracts, not linked to Mont Belvieu. So we're still kind of working through those relationships Obviously, the international pricing has been better than domestic pricing. And as that continues, we see a higher NGL realizations. You saw that in our increased guidance, increased it by $1. So as we continue to kind of watch the actuals versus kind of our forecast, we'll get a little more dialed in on that. But it's really just due to us switching to internationally linked liquids contracts versus domestically linked in prior years.

是的，沒有任何一次性項目。我們今年確實大幅轉向更多國際曝險、更好的合約，而且不再與 Mont Belvieu 連動。所以我們仍在逐步建立並磨合這些合作關係。很明顯，國際定價一直優於國內定價。隨著這種情況延續，我們看到更高的 NGL 實現價格。你也在我們上調的指引中看到這點，我們把它提高了 1 美元。因此，當我們持續觀察實際結果相對於我們的預測時，我們會更精準地校準。但這主要就是因為我們把液體合約從過去幾年以國內連動為主，轉為以國際連動為主。

Great. And as a follow-up, we've heard from other gas companies that are changing their activity plans given kind of the weak spot prices, what would make you consider pushing out wells until later in the year? Or are you overall happy with the equivalent price you received?

很好。追問一下：我們聽到其他天然氣公司因為現貨價格偏弱而調整其活動計畫。什麼情況會讓你們考慮把井的投產時點往後推到今年稍晚？或者你們整體上對所獲得的等值價格（equivalent price）感到滿意？

Yes, it's really dominated by liquids pricing. I mentioned on prior calls, we do have one pad. I mean we're only running 2 rigs and 1 completion through. We do have 1 pad in the capital program that's a spot we have had for the third quarter of this year, and that's one that's still to be determined. If it was based on current month prices today, that was one that would potentially be deferred and then that would put you at the low end of the capital guidance range.

是的，確實主要是由液體（NGL）定價所主導。我在先前的電話會議中提到過，我們確實有一個 pad。我的意思是，我們目前只在運行 2 部鑽機和 1 組完井作業。我們在資本計畫中確實有 1 個 pad，是我們原本為今年第三季預留的位置，而這個目前仍待決定。如果以今天當月的價格來看，這個 pad 可能會被延後，這樣就會讓你落在資本指引區間的低端。

The other pad is just one completion line. So running that with our 2 rigs is very efficient, and it's very much 1,275 to 1,300 Btu gas, so very high in the liquids content. So that's what drives the economics. I think in the first quarter of our revenue, 55% was liquids and only 45% was gas. So you can see how much the liquids prices really influences the economics of these wells.

另一個 pad 只有一條完井線。因此，搭配我們的 2 部鑽機來運行非常有效率，而且其天然氣熱值大約在 1,275 到 1,300 Btu，液體含量非常高。這就是推動經濟性的因素。我想在第一季的營收中，55% 來自液體，只有 45% 來自天然氣。所以你可以看到，液體價格對這些井的經濟性影響有多大。

Our next question comes from the line of Betty Jiang with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Betty Jiang。

Can you provide a bit more detail on the startup of the Plaquemines LNG? Do we need to see the first cargo loading or same chemical start-up before seeing any material feed gas demand. You mentioned that the TGP line, the 500 line has capacity of 900 M. Just any view on how quickly we could see those feed gas demand reach those levels?

你能否就 Plaquemines LNG 的啟動提供更多細節？在看到任何實質的進料氣需求之前，我們是否需要先看到第一船貨物裝載，或是同一套化工（chemical）啟動？你提到 TGP 管線，也就是 500 線，容量為 900 M。你對於我們能多快看到這些進料氣需求達到那些水準，有什麼看法？

Betty, it's Justin. Yes, so when we look at the data that we have so far on Plaquemine, you're correct, the Tennessee project, the Evangeline Pass project should start up July 1. Capacity of 900, the marketing analysts will be tracking the vessels that will be parked waiting to load. So that will be a data point to watch. The vessels that are showing up to the facility as we approach July, and then we'll see through the nominations into that new Evangeline Pass project. So in theory, once we get to July, the physical gas is flowing, we'll start getting a better gauge of how quickly the liquefaction trains are ramping to at least mechanical completion.

Betty，我是 Justin。是的，當我們看目前掌握的 Plaquemine 相關資料時，你說得沒錯，Tennessee 專案、Evangeline Pass 專案應該會在 7 月 1 日啟動，容量為 900。行銷分析師會追蹤那些停靠等待裝載的船舶，因此那會是一個可觀察的數據點。隨著我們接近 7 月，會看到船舶開始出現在設施附近，接著我們也會透過對這個新的 Evangeline Pass 專案的提名（nominations）來觀察。因此理論上，一旦到了 7 月、實體天然氣開始流動，我們就能更好地掌握液化列車（liquefaction trains）加速爬坡到至少機械完工（mechanical completion）的速度。

Got it. No, that's helpful. And just following up on pricing. Clearly, your guys' view is that the current future strip prices is not reflecting the dynamic around that hub. Why do you think that's case? And what will be the catalyst to drive that relative hub pricing higher?

了解。不，這很有幫助。再追問一下定價。很明顯你們的看法是，目前的期貨曲線（future strip）價格並沒有反映該樞紐（hub）周邊的動態。你們認為為什麼會這樣？而推動該相對樞紐定價走高的催化劑會是什麼？

So you're referring to the Henry Hub pricing?

所以你指的是 Henry Hub 的定價嗎？

The TGP 500 line pricing relative to Henry Hub.

是指 TGP 500 線相對於 Henry Hub 的定價。

Yes, Betty, we are seeing the price reaction at 500 in the forward markets that's just looking at financial basis alone. So looking at financial basis alone, in the summers on Cal '25 and Cal '26 are already showing plus $0.40. That is, again, just financial. So those points will command a physical premium, which we'll start to develop as we get closer to delivery but there will be a physical premium component as well. So if it were $0.10 to $0.20, let's say, you're now at $0.60 or $0.70 over Henry Hub as that physical gas starts to price closer to delivery.

是的，Betty，我們在 500 的遠期市場看到的價格反應，僅是從金融基差（financial basis）的角度來看。也就是只看金融基差的話，2025 年與 2026 年的夏季（Cal '25 與 Cal '26）已經顯示 +0.40 美元。這再次強調只是金融面。因此，這些點位會帶來實體溢價（physical premium），我們會在更接近交割時開始形成，但也會有實體溢價的成分。所以如果實體溢價是 0.10 到 0.20 美元，假設如此，那麼當實體天然氣開始在更接近交割時定價，你就會看到相對 Henry Hub 高出 0.60 或 0.70 美元。

Got it. And is there a physical gas -- physical premium today for the gas?

了解。那目前實體天然氣——也就是實體溢價——今天有嗎？

Today -- it varies, Betty. We've seen different premiums. Last summer, we were seeing very high premiums in the summer months on the physical side, and that's because there still is power generation requirements in the Southeast when the temperatures get hot and AC load starts to increase. So yes, we have seen those premiums in the past, but it can trade flat to plus.

今天——它會變動，Betty。我們看過不同的溢價。去年夏天，我們在夏季月份的實體市場端看到非常高的溢價，因為當氣溫升高、空調負載開始增加時，東南部仍有發電需求。所以是的，我們過去確實看過那些溢價，但它也可能交易在持平到小幅溢價。

Got it. That's helpful. If I could turn to question just on the certified gas side, it's good to see that you guys increased the certified gas coverage under Project Canary. Do you expect all of your production to get certified at some point? And also kudos to you guys on the emission intensity on the production that's really low relative to your peers. Is there much more room you can do to reduce emissions organically from here?

了解。這很有幫助。如果我可以把問題轉到認證天然氣（certified gas）方面，很高興看到你們在 Project Canary 下提高了認證天然氣的覆蓋率。你們是否預期最終你們所有產量都會在某個時間點取得認證？另外也稱讚你們的生產排放強度（emission intensity），相較同業真的很低。從現在起，你們在有機（不靠外部）減排方面還有多少空間可以再降低？

Yes. So on your first question on Project Canary, we do see that going across all of our fields. We're up to 2 Bcf a day. So it's about 2/3, maybe around 50% of the field on a gross basis. So, overtime, we do see it continuing to build that out across our entire field. On the emissions, we're getting close to being as low as we can. We've eliminated probably about 85% of all our new mag devices and have done all the valve control work that is necessary to limit the emissions from there. So we're getting as close as we can. We ultimately think we will get down in 2025 into the 225,000, 250,000 metric tons level that we need to offset, and that's why you saw us commence with our project to offset those emissions through our stove top, cook stoves in Ghana initiative.

是的。先回答你第一個關於 Project Canary 的問題，我們確實看到它會擴展到我們所有的區塊。我們目前已達到每日 2 Bcf。以總量（gross）口徑來看，大約是 2/3，或可能約 50% 的區塊覆蓋。因此，隨著時間推進，我們確實看到它會持續擴展到我們整個區塊。至於排放，我們已經接近能做到的最低水準。我們大概已經消除了約 85% 的所有新型 mag 裝置，並完成所有必要的閥門控制工作，以限制由此產生的排放。所以我們已經盡可能接近最低。最終我們認為在 2025 年，我們會降到需要抵換（offset）的 225,000 到 250,000 公噸（metric tons）水準，這也是為什麼你看到我們啟動了透過迦納的爐灶、節能炊具（cook stoves）倡議來抵換這些排放的專案。

Our next question comes from the line of Subhasish Chandra with Benchmark.

我們的下一個問題來自 Benchmark 的 Subhasish Chandra。

Back to Plaquemine and TGP 500. So obviously, the forwards are showing the scarcity of gas beginning with full ramp in the LNG facility. How do you see that being addressed and over what time frame? Is there absolutely no chance of having incremental capacity there over the next couple of several years that, that premium shows in the strip?

回到 Plaquemine 和 TGP 500。很明顯，遠期價格已經顯示，隨著 LNG 設施全面爬坡，天然氣將出現稀缺。你們認為這會如何被解決、以及在什麼時間範圍內？在未來幾年內，是否完全不可能在那裡增加額外運能，以致那個溢價會反映在期貨曲線上？

There could be other volumes drawn to that area. Just depending on the basis spreads and the premiums. That corridor has a lot of pipes that traverse west to east, filling that Southeast power generation load, et cetera. So I think to Mike's point earlier, it just depends on the competition of need seasonally and monthly. If global spreads and global pricing are spiking, then you would assume that the competition will increase. There is a finite amount of gas that can get into those areas.

可能會有其他氣量被吸引到那個區域，這取決於基差價差與溢價。那條走廊有很多管線由西向東穿越，用來滿足東南部的發電負載等等。所以我想呼應 Mike 先前的觀點，這取決於季節性與每月的需求競爭。如果全球價差與全球定價正在飆升，那你會假設競爭會加劇。能進入那些區域的天然氣量是有限的。

So Antero, when we started picking up that capacity years ago or at least putting the contracts together prior to in-service date, we knew at the time that to get physical gas on the 500 leg, it is a challenge to get volume over there just with the market pull in the Southeast. So then you add the new liquefaction facility of potentially 3.4, 3.8 Bcf a day, it just leads to that competition that we expect and volatility and then price premiums.

所以 Antero，當我們多年前開始取得那段運能，或至少在投運日期之前把合約安排好時，我們當時就知道，要在 500 這一段取得實體天然氣是有挑戰的，因為東南部市場拉力就已經很強。然後你再加上新的液化設施，可能達到每日 3.4、3.8 Bcf，這就導致我們預期的競爭、波動，以及價格溢價。

There are no further questions in the queue. I'd like to hand it back to management for closing remarks.

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。我想把時間交回管理層做結語。

Yes. Thank you for joining us on today's call. Please reach out if any further questions. Thanks.

是的。感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。如有任何進一步問題，請與我們聯繫。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

各位女士、先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛斷電話線，祝您有美好的一天。