Antero Resources Corporation (AR) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Antero Resources Q3 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Brendan Krueger, Chief Financial Officer of Antero Midstream and Vice President of Finance.

各位好，歡迎參加 Antero Resources 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）提醒各位，本次會議將被錄音。現在我想將會議交給今天的主持人：Antero Midstream 財務長兼財務副總裁 Brendan Krueger。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for Antero's Third Quarter 2023 Investor Conference Call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operating highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteroresources.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

謝謝。各位早安。感謝各位參加 Antero 2023 年第三季投資人電話會議。我們將花幾分鐘回顧財務與營運重點，接著開放問答。我也想請各位前往我們網站首頁 www.anteroresources.com，我們已提供一份獨立的財報電話會議簡報，將在今天的會議中一併檢視。

Today's call may contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議可能包含某些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。請參閱我們的財報新聞稿，以取得關於此類指標的重要揭露資訊，包括與最可比 GAAP 財務衡量指標的調節表。

Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman, CEO and President; Michael Kennedy, CFO; and Dave Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing and Transportation; and Justin Fowler, Senior Vice President of Natural Gas Marketing. I will now turn the call over to Paul.

今天與我一同參與電話會議的有：董事長、執行長兼總裁 Paul Rady；財務長 Michael Kennedy；液體行銷與運輸資深副總裁 Dave Cannelongo；以及天然氣行銷資深副總裁 Justin Fowler。現在我把電話交給 Paul。

Thank you, Brendan. I'll start my comments on Slide #3 titled Drilling and Completion Efficiencies. After a record-breaking first half of 2023 operationally, we continued to build on this momentum during the third quarter. As an example, our completion pumping hours per day increased to over 17 hours per day, up nearly 50% from a year ago. In June, we set a company record pumping on average for over 22 hours a day. This increase in pumping hours per day contributes to higher completion stages per day.

謝謝你，Brendan。我將從第 3 張投影片「鑽井與完井效率」開始。在 2023 年上半年營運創下破紀錄之後，我們在第三季持續延續這股動能。舉例來說，我們每日完井壓裂泵送時數提升至超過 17 小時，較去年同期增加近 50%。6 月時，我們創下公司紀錄，平均每日泵送超過 22 小時。每日泵送時數的提升，有助於提高每日完井段數。

Year-to-date completion stages per day have averaged 11 stages a day, a 35% improvement compared to the 2022 average and is a nearly 90% increase from our 2019 levels. The net impact of all of our operational improvements has led to significantly shorter cycle times as shown on the bottom of the page. These cycle times reflect the total number of days it takes on average from first studying the pad and to turning that entire pad to sales.

今年迄今，每日完井段數平均為 11 段，較 2022 年平均提升 35%，相較 2019 年水準更是增加近 90%。我們所有營運改善的淨效果，使得如頁面底部所示的週期時間顯著縮短。這些週期時間反映從首次勘查井場（pad）到將整個井場投產銷售（turning that entire pad to sales）所需的平均總天數。

Since 2019, our cycle times have decreased by an impressive 65% and averaged just 160 days through the first 3 quarters of 2023. In June, we had the fastest cycle times in our company history at 129 days. Shorter cycle times means higher capital efficiency. Highlighting this point, we completed roughly 80% of our 2023 expected completion stages during the first 9 months of 2023.

自 2019 年以來，我們的週期時間大幅下降 65%，在 2023 年前三季平均僅 160 天。6 月時，我們創下公司史上最快週期時間紀錄，僅 129 天。週期時間越短代表資本效率越高。為了凸顯這一點，我們在 2023 年前 9 個月已完成約 80% 的 2023 年預期完井段數。

Now let's turn to Slide #4. Faster cycle times and improving well performance has led to 2 production guidance increases in 2023. This gain in capital efficiencies is highlighted by our 9% total production growth in the third quarter compared to the year ago period. Our production growth was driven by an 18% liquids growth while natural gas volumes increased 4% year-over-year. Looking at this on an annual basis, we now expect production this year to increase by 225 million cubic feet equivalent per day or 7% from the exit rate in 2022 to the exit rate in 2023.

接著看第 4 張投影片。更快的週期時間與井況表現改善，使我們在 2023 年兩度上調產量指引。資本效率提升也反映在第三季總產量較去年同期成長 9%。產量成長主要由液體產量成長 18% 所帶動，而天然氣產量年增 4%。以全年來看，我們目前預期今年產量將增加每日 2.25 億立方英尺當量（million cubic feet equivalent per day），或從 2022 年期末到 2023 年期末的退出率（exit rate）成長 7%。

Importantly, these capital efficiency gains also reduced our maintenance capital budget. We continue to expect materially lower D&C capital in 2024 driven by operational efficiency gains alone. Lastly, I'd like to discuss our multi-decade inventory position. Turning to Slide #5, titled AR has the lowest -- the largest low-cost inventory. This chart compares inventory positions across our natural gas peer group based on data from a recent third-party report.

重要的是，這些資本效率提升也降低了我們的維持性資本預算。我們仍預期 2024 年的鑽井與完井（D&C）資本支出將因營運效率提升而顯著下降。最後，我想談談我們可支撐數十年的庫存部位。請看第 5 張投影片，標題為「AR 擁有最低成本的最大庫存」。此圖表根據近期第三方報告的資料，對比我們在天然氣同業中的庫存部位。

Antero has the most sub $2.75 per Mcfe drilling inventory at 22 years. It's important to note that this inventory comparison is after our peers spent a combined $17 billion on acquisitions over the last 2 years. In contrast, we remain focused on our organic leasing efforts where we've invested some $340 million over that same time to acquire targeted drilling locations within our development footprint.

Antero 擁有最多每 Mcfe 低於 2.75 美元的鑽井庫存，達 22 年。需要注意的是，這項庫存比較是在同業於過去兩年合計投入 170 億美元進行併購之後的結果。相較之下，我們仍專注於有機租賃（organic leasing）工作；在同一期間，我們投入約 3.4 億美元，在我們的開發範圍內取得具針對性的鑽井位置。

On average, we've been able to add locations for approximately $1 million per location through this program. That is less than half of the over $2 million average cost per location for the peer acquisitions.

透過此計畫，我們平均能以每個位置約 100 萬美元的成本新增鑽井位置。這不到同業併購中每個位置超過 200 萬美元平均成本的一半。

Touching on the recent flurry of M&A headlines. In our opinion, drivers for M&A usually relate to either one, limited core inventory; two, a lack of pipeline capacity to move your production out of basin or thee, for balance sheet repair.

談到近期一連串併購（M&A）新聞。在我們看來，推動併購的因素通常與以下之一有關：第一，核心庫存有限；第二，缺乏管線運能將產量運出盆地；第三，用於修復資產負債表。

With a peer-leading low-cost inventory position, the largest firm transportation portfolio in the E&P sector and low absolute debt and leverage, Antero can stay focused on improving operations which we believe drives ultimate shareholder value. Now to touch on the current liquids and NGL fundamentals. I'm going to turn it over to our Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing and Transportation. Dave Cannelongo for his comments. Dave?

憑藉同業領先的低成本庫存部位、E&P 產業中最大的固定運輸（firm transportation）組合，以及較低的絕對負債與槓桿，Antero 能持續專注於營運改善；我們相信這將驅動股東價值的最終提升。接下來談目前液體與 NGL 的基本面。我將把時間交給我們的液體行銷與運輸資深副總裁 Dave Cannelongo 發表看法。Dave？

Thanks, Paul. In the second half of 2023, we have seen an uptick in crude pricing as the macroeconomic concerns in the first half of the year have eased and new geopolitical concerns in the Middle East have increased the risk premium in the market. The most recent conflict has added volatility to global energy prices, particularly crude with market fears of war spreading further in the Middle East.

謝謝，Paul。2023 年下半年，隨著上半年對總體經濟的疑慮緩解，以及中東新的地緣政治疑慮提高市場風險溢酬，我們看到原油價格有所回升。最近的衝突增加了全球能源價格的波動，尤其是原油，市場擔憂戰事可能進一步擴散至中東其他地區。

Turning to propane. While absolute propane inventories are high and prices as a percent of WTI lower than usual, fundamentals are painting a better picture in recent weeks. The U.S. recently set a new weekly record high for propane exports and printed 2 consecutive weeks above 2 million barrels per day. Overall, propane export demand has been consistently strong and has averaged 1.6 million barrels per day year-to-date. Shown on Slide 6, about 250,000 barrels per day or 19% above the 2022 full year average.

接著談丙烷。雖然丙烷絕對庫存偏高，且價格占 WTI 的比例低於往常，但近幾週基本面呈現較佳的景象。美國近期創下丙烷出口單週新高紀錄，並連續兩週高於每日 200 萬桶。整體而言，丙烷出口需求持續強勁，今年迄今平均為每日 160 萬桶。如第 6 張投影片所示，約為每日 25 萬桶，或較 2022 年全年平均高出 19%。

As we move into 2024, exports are expected to further increase causing potential tightness in U.S. Gulf Coast DUC capacity. As a reminder, Antero exports over 50% of our C3+ production, skewed heavily towards propane in particular, directly out of the Marcus Hook terminal in Pennsylvania, and therefore, Antero's export volumes are not impacted by constraints at the Gulf Coast export DUCs. In fact, with tight capacity in the Gulf Coast and strong international pricing, Antero will be able to take advantage of its capacity out of Marcus Hook to capture these wide arbitrage opportunities.

展望 2024 年，預期出口將進一步增加，可能導致美國墨西哥灣沿岸 DUC 產能趨緊。提醒各位，Antero 將超過 50% 的 C3+ 產量用於出口，且特別偏重丙烷，並直接自賓州 Marcus Hook 終端出口；因此，Antero 的出口量不受墨西哥灣沿岸出口 DUC 受限的影響。事實上，在墨西哥灣沿岸產能吃緊且國際價格強勁的情況下，Antero 將能利用 Marcus Hook 的產能，掌握這些可觀的套利機會。

The growing call on propane exports has kept propane days of supply in line with historical levels. As seen on Slide 7, while total propane inventories sit just above the top of the 5-year range. Propane days of supply is currently just 1 day above the 5-year average. Adding to the strong exports, seasonal demand will also start to increase in the fourth quarter as the market heads into the winter heating season. Strong heating demand this winter could quickly deplete the surplus that the mild 2022 to 2023 winter added to inventories last withdrawal season.

丙烷出口需求的增加，使丙烷供應天數維持在歷史水準附近。如第 7 張投影片所示，雖然丙烷總庫存略高於 5 年區間上緣，但丙烷供應天數目前僅比 5 年平均高出 1 天。除了強勁出口之外，季節性需求也將在第四季隨著市場進入冬季取暖季而開始上升。若今年冬季取暖需求強勁，可能會迅速消化 2022 至 2023 年溫和冬季在上一個提取季（withdrawal season）所累積的庫存盈餘。

Now let's turn to Slide 8 titled China PDH Buildout Continues. A major driver of strong propane exports this year has been growing demand from China, which has seen stronger year-over-year petrochemical demand despite some macroeconomic headwinds there. This year through August, 120,000 barrels a day of propane dehydrogenation or PDH capacity has been added in China.

現在請看第 8 張投影片，標題為「中國 PDH 擴建持續」。今年丙烷出口強勁的一大推動力，是來自中國日益成長的需求；儘管當地面臨一些總體經濟逆風，中國的石化需求仍呈現更強的年增表現。今年截至 8 月，中國已新增每日 12 萬桶的丙烷脫氫（PDH）產能。

Industry estimates show that another 340,000 barrels a day of capacity is expected to come online between now and the end of 2024. Even with just 1/4 of PDH capacity additions online that are expected over 2023 and 2024, the ramp in imports to China from the U.S. year-over-year has been substantial.

產業估計顯示，從現在到 2024 年底，預計還將有每日 34 萬桶的產能上線。即使僅有 2023 年與 2024 年預期新增的 PDH 產能中有 1/4 投入運轉，中國自美國進口量的年增幅度仍相當可觀。

For January through August this year, the amount of U.S. propane cargoes delivered to China increased by 44% year-over-year compared with a 19% increase year-over-year from the Middle East. This demonstrates that U.S. exports continue to make up the marginal increase required by Chinese propane demand.

今年 1 月至 8 月，運抵中國的美國丙烷貨量較去年同期增加 44%，相較之下，中東來源的年增幅為 19%。這顯示美國出口仍持續提供中國丙烷需求所需的邊際增量。

Meanwhile, on the U.S. supply side, rig counts continue to drop, now down 21% year-to-date as seen on Slide 9. This represents a drop of 163 rigs across both oil and gas directed rigs. Permian Basin rig counts are down 40 year-to-date and have accelerated decreases in recent weeks, falling to just above 300 total rigs, losing 20 rigs between the end of September and start of October.

同時，在美國供給端，鑽機數持續下滑，如投影片 9 所示，今年迄今已下降 21%。這代表油氣導向鑽機合計減少 163 座。二疊紀盆地鑽機數今年迄今減少 40 座，且近幾週降幅加速，總鑽機數降至略高於 300 座，從 9 月底到 10 月初又減少 20 座。

Additionally, key NGL-producing basins such as the Eagle Ford and SCOOP/STACK have seen their rig counts declined 35% and 45% year-to-date. Overall, we believe that with supportive fundamentals domestically and positive demand signals from China, there are signs of improvement for NGLs heading into 2024 and in particular, for producers like Antero with direct access to international markets.

此外，Eagle Ford 與 SCOOP/STACK 等主要 NGL 產區的鑽機數今年迄今分別下降 35% 與 45%。整體而言，我們認為在國內基本面具支撐、且中國釋出正向需求訊號的情況下，NGL 在邁入 2024 年之際出現改善跡象，尤其是像 Antero 這類可直接接觸國際市場的生產商。

With that, I'll turn it over to our Senior Vice President of Natural Gas Marketing, Justin Fowler, to discuss the natural gas market.

接下來，我把時間交給我們的天然氣行銷資深副總裁 Justin Fowler，請他談談天然氣市場。

Thanks, Dave. I will start on Slide #10 titled Dramatic Reduction in Activity Will Limit Production Growth. Starting with the rig count chart at the top of the slide, we have seen the Appalachia plus Haynesville rig count declined by approximately 50 drilling rigs since the beginning of this year. This compares to the similar rig decline that we experienced back in 2019.

謝謝，Dave。我先從投影片 #10「活動量大幅下降將限制產量成長」開始。先看投影片上方的鑽機數圖表，我們看到阿帕拉契亞加上海恩斯維爾（Haynesville）的鑽機數自今年年初以來約減少 50 座。這與我們在 2019 年所經歷的類似鑽機下滑幅度相當。

As shown on the natural gas production chart at the bottom of the slide, it took over 6 months to materialize. However, U.S. natural gas production ultimately declined by as much as 10%. Further, it took almost 2 years to get back to the 2019 highs. Today, we are just about 6 months out from when rigs began to drop in a meaningful and sustained way. An important distinction this time around, however, is that over 70% of the rig declines this cycle have come from the higher decline in Haynesville Basin. A sharp contrast to 2019 when the majority of rig drops came from the lower decline in Appalachian Basin.

如投影片下方的天然氣產量圖所示，當時花了超過 6 個月才顯現出影響。然而，美國天然氣產量最終下滑幅度高達 10%。此外，幾乎花了 2 年才回到 2019 年的高點。今天，我們距離鑽機開始以顯著且持續的方式下滑，大約才過了 6 個月。不過，這次有一個重要差異：本輪週期中超過 70% 的鑽機減少，來自遞減率較高的海恩斯維爾盆地。這與 2019 年形成鮮明對比，當時多數鑽機下滑來自遞減率較低的阿帕拉契亞盆地。

In summary, we believe the sharp decline in rigs and completion crews will curb production growth in 2024, helping to balance the U.S. natural gas market. As a reminder, we sell substantially all of our natural gas out of basin, including approximately 75% to the LNG corridor, as shown on Slide #11, titled Firm transportation to the LNG Fairway.

總結而言，我們認為鑽機與完井隊伍的大幅下滑將抑制 2024 年的產量成長，有助於平衡美國天然氣市場。提醒一下，我們幾乎所有天然氣都銷往盆地外，其中約 75% 銷往 LNG 走廊，如投影片 #11「通往 LNG 核心區的固定運輸」所示。

Our firm transportation portfolio provides us with direct exposure to growing LNG demand along the Gulf Coast and importantly, into Tier 1 pricing points along the Gulf Coast. Next, I'll turn to Slide #12, titled Not All Firm Transportation to the Gulf Coast is Equal. This slide illustrates the significant benefit in selling your gas at Tier 1 Gulf Coast pricing. Based on the current strip, Tier 1 prices reflect increasing premiums to NYMEX in 2024 and 2025, including the TGP 500 line, where premiums have increased to $0.29 above NYMEX in 2026.

我們的固定運輸組合讓我們能直接受惠於墨西哥灣沿岸日益成長的 LNG 需求，更重要的是，能進入墨西哥灣沿岸的一級（Tier 1）定價點。接著我將切到投影片 #12「並非所有通往墨西哥灣沿岸的固定運輸都一樣」。這張投影片說明以墨西哥灣沿岸 Tier 1 價格銷售天然氣的顯著優勢。依目前遠期曲線（strip）來看，Tier 1 價格在 2024 與 2025 年相對 NYMEX 的溢價擴大，包括 TGP 500 管線，其溢價在 2026 年已提高至較 NYMEX 高出 0.29 美元。

Meanwhile, some peers claim they can move their gas to the Gulf Coast, but they're actually stuck in Tier 3, selling their gas at $0.24 back of NYMEX in both 2024 and 2025. The yellow stars on the map depict Antero sales points, which were strategically negotiated to bring our volumes directly to the LNG doorstep. As depicted in the pie chart on the top left of the slide, Antero sells 90% of its gas at Tier 1 pricing. This compares to the average of our peers, which sell 67% of their Gulf Coast directed volume into Tier 2 and 3 pricing.

同時，有些同業宣稱能把天然氣運到墨西哥灣沿岸，但實際上被卡在 Tier 3，於 2024 與 2025 年都以較 NYMEX 低 0.24 美元的價格出售。地圖上的黃色星號代表 Antero 的銷售點，這些點位是策略性談判取得，能將我們的量直接送到 LNG 設施門口。如投影片左上角的圓餅圖所示，Antero 有 90% 的天然氣以 Tier 1 價格出售。相較之下，我們同業平均有 67% 的墨西哥灣沿岸導向量落在 Tier 2 與 Tier 3 定價。

Looking ahead over the next 2 years as LNG export capacity increases by nearly 6 Bcf, we expect Antero sales points to be priced at even higher premiums to NYMEX as these LNG facilities compete for supply, a key competitive advantage between Antero versus our peers. With that, I will turn it over to Mike Kennedy, Antero's CFO.

展望未來兩年，隨著 LNG 出口產能增加近 6 Bcf，我們預期 Antero 的銷售點相對 NYMEX 的溢價將更高，因為這些 LNG 設施將競相取得供應；這是 Antero 相較同業的一項關鍵競爭優勢。接下來，我把時間交給 Antero 的財務長 Mike Kennedy。

Thanks, Justin. First, I'd like to add some additional comments on how we view the outlook for natural gas. Slide #13 examines the historical relationship between storage levels and natural gas prices. This chart illustrates the high correlation that storage and pricing have to each other. As you would expect, when storage levels are below or above the 5-year average, natural gas prices are low. And when storage levels are below the 5-year average, prices trend higher.

謝謝，Justin。首先，我想補充一些我們如何看待天然氣展望的看法。投影片 #13 檢視庫存水位與天然氣價格之間的歷史關係。這張圖表顯示庫存與價格之間具有高度相關性。如你所預期，當庫存水位低於或高於 5 年平均時，天然氣價格偏低；而當庫存水位低於 5 年平均時，價格則呈上升趨勢。

Since 2020, which is essentially when the industry moved the maintenance production when storage levels are flat with the 5-year level, natural gas prices averaged $4 per Mcf. Looking at 2023, storage levels rose to as high as 25% above the 5-year average, resulting in negative sentiment and low gas prices.

自 2020 年以來，基本上也是產業在庫存水位與 5 年平均持平時轉向維持性生產（maintenance production）的時期，天然氣價格平均為每 Mcf 4 美元。回顧 2023 年，庫存水位一度高達較 5 年平均高出 25%，導致市場情緒偏負面、氣價偏低。

However, during the second half of 2023, record levels of power burn drove down the storage surplus, which sits at just 5% today. With production expected to moderate in the coming months and LNG exports hitting record highs, we anticipate storage levels will balance with the 5-year average in 2024, thus providing support to natural gas prices.

然而，在 2023 年下半年，發電用氣（power burn）創紀錄的水準使庫存盈餘下降，目前僅剩 5%。隨著未來幾個月產量預期放緩、且 LNG 出口創新高，我們預期 2024 年庫存水位將與 5 年平均趨於平衡，從而對天然氣價格形成支撐。

Expanding on this point, if you have today's exact storage level at this same time next year, your surplus would go from almost 200 Bcf over the 5-year average today to a surplus of just 50 Bcf to next year's 5-year average. Next, I'd like to go a little deeper on the capital efficiency improvements that Paul touched on in his comments.

進一步說明，如果明年同一時間的庫存水位與今天完全相同，你的盈餘將從今天較 5 年平均多出將近 200 Bcf，縮小為相對明年 5 年平均僅多出 50 Bcf 的盈餘。接下來，我想更深入談談 Paul 在評論中提到的資本效率改善。

The scatter plot on Slide #14 illustrates the year-over-year change in production on the y-axis and the year-over-year change in drilling and completion capital on the X axis, for the Appalachia and EMPs. While targeting a maintenance capital program, Antero's third quarter 2023 production actually grew 9% year-over-year.

投影片 #14 的散點圖以 y 軸呈現產量的年增變化，以 x 軸呈現鑽井與完井資本支出的年增變化，涵蓋阿帕拉契亞與 EMPs。儘管我們以維持性資本方案為目標，Antero 於 2023 年第三季的產量仍較去年同期成長 9%。

Conversely, while our peer group attempted to target a maintenance capital program, their volumes actually declined year-over-year. When you compare the production growth to the drilling and completion capital invested to deliver that growth, we have been far and away the most capital-efficient operator in Appalachia. As a rule of thumb internally, we view each $100 million change of capital to result in approximately $100 million a day change in production, both up and down.

相反地，雖然我們的同業群也嘗試以維持性資本方案為目標，但其產量實際上較去年同期下滑。若將產量成長與為達成該成長所投入的鑽井與完井資本相比，我們在阿帕拉契亞地區是資本效率最高的營運商，且領先幅度顯著。以我們內部的經驗法則，每 1 億美元的資本變動，約會帶來每日約 1 億立方英尺（或等量口徑）產量的變動，無論增加或減少皆然。

Exit rate 2022 to exit rate 2023, we expect production growth of $225 million per day, which implies that our capital efficiency gains and well performance have reduced true maintenance capital by roughly $225 million, all else equal. This implies a true maintenance capital budget to hold 2022 volumes of 3.2 Bcfe a day of approximately $650 million to $700 million.

從 2022 年期末退出率到 2023 年期末退出率，我們預期產量成長為每日 2.25 億（單位同前述口徑），這意味著在其他條件不變下，我們的資本效率提升與井況表現已使真正的維持性資本降低約 2.25 億美元。這也意味著，為維持 2022 年每日 3.2 Bcfe 產量所需的真正維持性資本預算約為 6.5 億至 7 億美元。

Looking ahead to 2024, our improved capital efficiency and well performance provides us with significant flexibility during our upcoming budgeting process to either hold our current third and fourth quarter volumes flat at capital approximately 10% lower than our 2023 capital or to hold our previously communicated maintenance volumes of 3.35 to 3.4 Bcfe a day at an even lower capital level.

展望 2024 年，隨著我們資本效率提升與井況表現優異，在即將到來的預算編製流程中，我們具備相當大的彈性：要麼在資本支出較 2023 年約低 10% 的水準下，將目前第三與第四季的產量維持持平；要麼以更低的資本水準，維持我們先前對外溝通的維持性產量（每日 3.35 至 3.4 Bcfe）。

Either way, this lower capital outlook, combined with the higher natural gas strip is expected to lead to substantial free cash flow in 2024 and beyond. With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

無論採取哪一種方式，這較低的資本展望，加上更高的天然氣遠期價格帶（strip），預期將在 2024 年及其後帶來可觀的自由現金流。接下來我把電話交給接線員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Bert Donnes of Truist.

（接線員指示）今天的第一個問題來自 Truist 的 Bert Donnes。

On the difference between the 10% lower capital program versus the meaningfully lower capital, you just addressed some of the questions. But what spurred the change in the messaging? Is it just the efficiencies you're seeing? Is there some sort of investor feedback? Or are you looking at the strip and that changed your mind? Or was this always the plan you just laid it out a little bit simpler for us the first time.

關於「資本支出降低 10% 的方案」與「顯著更低資本」之間的差異，你剛剛已回答了部分問題。但促使訊息表述改變的原因是什麼？只是你們看到的效率提升嗎？有沒有某種投資人回饋？還是你們在看遠期價格帶後改變了想法？或者這一直都是原本的計畫，只是第一次你們用更簡單的方式對我們說明？

No, the change is our production is well ahead of expectations. We didn't anticipate to be $225 million a day over exit rate to exit rate. We've now raised our guidance twice throughout the year. And we expect gross wellhead volumes in Q4 to be higher than Q3 as well. And so just the well performance, the capital efficiency, all those assumptions underlying those have improved.

不是，改變的原因是我們的產量遠超預期。我們原本沒預期退出率到退出率會高出 2.25 億美元/天。我們今年已兩度上調指引，而且我們預期第四季的總井口產量也會高於第三季。因此，井況表現、資本效率，以及支撐這些的各項假設都改善了。

And so we have to figure out in this upcoming budget process, the assumptions that we use, how we risk those. We typically have some risk, and that's why we always hit our numbers and go from there and see which levels we want to hit. We can dial in pretty much any production we want at any capital at the required capital levels.

因此在接下來的預算流程中，我們必須釐清所採用的假設，以及如何對其進行風險調整。我們通常會保留一些風險緩衝，這也是為什麼我們總能達成目標；接著再從那裡出發，看看我們想達到哪些水準。我們幾乎可以在所需的資本水準下，以任何資本對應調整到我們想要的產量。

So when you change those assumptions, it changes the capital. So 10% would be holding kind of the current run rate. We'd be 10% lower, but if we held the previously communicated guidance for maintenance capital, it would be well below that 10%.

所以當你改變這些假設時，資本就會跟著改變。降低 10% 代表大致維持目前的運行速率；我們會比現在低 10%。但如果我們維持先前對外溝通的維持性資本所對應的產量指引，那資本就會遠低於這個 10%。

That's great. And then my follow-up is kind of related, but say the strip plays out, maybe we actually get a few cold winters. LNG demand doesn't get pushed out. You see an attractive growth environment.

很好。那我的追問也有點相關：假設遠期價格帶如預期發展，也許我們真的遇到幾個寒冬，LNG 需求也沒有被延後，你看到一個具吸引力的成長環境。

Does Antero's kind of stable operations plan change? Or do you maybe stair step just up to a higher level and maybe hedge some of that risk away. I was feeling some of your peers are probably try to respond to a bull and bear environment. But do you stay stable or with your new efficient program, maybe you could respond to the strip?

Antero 這種相對穩定的營運計畫會改變嗎？還是你們可能階梯式地提高到更高的水準，並對部分風險進行避險？我感覺你們一些同業可能會嘗試因應多頭與空頭環境。但你們會維持穩定，還是憑藉新的高效率方案，可能會對遠期價格帶做出反應？

No, we stay say. We're trying to achieve maintenance capital. It's just -- as we said, it just continues to improve. So ultimately, we'll get to a level where the maintenance capital assumptions we have equate to actuals, and so we'll stay at that maintenance capital program and then pay down the remainder of our debt and return capital to shareholders.

不，我們會維持不變。我們的目標是達成維持性資本；只是——如我們所說——它持續在改善。最終，我們會到達一個水準，使我們對維持性資本的假設與實際相符；然後我們就會維持在該維持性資本方案，並用剩餘資金償還其餘債務、把資本回饋給股東。

The next question comes from Umang Choudhary of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Umang Choudhary。

I appreciate all the details on the propane macro. I wanted to circle back on your thoughts around upside and both downside risk to propane prices heading into next year. Like you said, you are positive on propane demand for 2024 with the build-out of PDH facility.

感謝你們提供丙烷總體面的所有細節。我想回到你們對明年丙烷價格上行與下行風險的看法。如你所說，隨著 PDH 設施擴建，你們對 2024 年丙烷需求持正面看法。

But I wanted to understand if you see any downside risk there and also on the supply side, given healthy oil prices, do you see any risk of supply exceeding EI expectations of around 50,000 barrels per day for the next year?

但我想了解你們是否看到任何下行風險；另外在供給端，考量油價維持健康，你們是否認為供給可能超過 EIA 對明年約每日 50,000 桶的預期？

Yes. On the propane side, I would say the biggest risk that we kind of highlighted in our comments on what could happen in the Gulf Coast with Mont Belvieu pricing, if you see those DUCs really hit full utilization. We even saw here in the third quarter, 3 of the big 4 facilities had extended planned or unplanned maintenance or I guess, third quarter into fourth quarter that has driven some lower propane export numbers despite the records that we've reported.

是的。在丙烷方面，我會說最大的風險是我們在評論中提到的：墨西哥灣沿岸（Gulf Coast）在 Mont Belvieu 定價上可能發生的情況——如果你看到那些 DUC（已鑽未完井）真正達到滿載利用。我們甚至在第三季就看到，四大設施中的三個出現延長的計畫性或非計畫性維修，或者說第三季延續到第四季，這使得丙烷出口量偏低，儘管我們報告的數據創下紀錄。

So I think we would have seen higher overall export numbers here in recent months and lower inventories than where we stand today, had that not happened. But it points to the fact that those facilities are becoming increasingly higher utilized. And that's really a big differentiator for Antero. If you go back to, I think it was back in 2019, the first kind of full year we had Mariner East online.

所以我認為，如果不是因為那件事，近幾個月我們本來會看到更高的整體出口量，以及比目前更低的庫存。但這也指出一個事實：這些設施的利用率正變得愈來愈高。而這正是 Antero 的一個重要差異化因素。回顧到我想是 2019 年，我們第一次迎來 Mariner East 全年上線的那一年。

We had very high utilizations in the U.S. Gulf Coast and the arbs were wide, they were $0.15, $0.20 to $0.25 a gallon, and you saw us capture that. And so that's ultimately something that we could see play out this year -- or sorry, for 2024, where you could have weaker Mont Belvieu pricing like you've seen here in the third quarter, but strong arbs in Antero. As we move into 2024, we do capture some of that value today. We have some contracts that are term deals that roll off before the end of the first quarter.

當時美國墨西哥灣沿岸的利用率非常高，套利（arbs）很寬，大約每加侖 0.15、0.20 到 0.25 美元，而你也看到我們把那個價值抓住了。因此，這最終可能在今年——抱歉，是在 2024 年——重演：你可能會看到像第三季那樣較弱的 Mont Belvieu 定價，但 Antero 的套利很強。進入 2024 年，我們今天已經捕捉到部分價值；我們有一些合約是期限交易，會在第一季末之前到期。

And so beyond that in 2024, we're fully on contract and able to capture that value. And so I think you'll see that reflected in our NGL realizations if that plays out (inaudible) looking right now on the propane side. I think the other tailwind is just on the freight cost, you've seen freight costs stay elevated this year. We hit record levels a month or so ago and that's been driven by some delays getting through the Panama Canal, well-publicized low water levels that they have down there.

因此在 2024 年其後，我們將完全在合約覆蓋之下，能夠捕捉那個價值。所以如果情境如（聽不清）目前在丙烷端所看到的那樣發展，我認為你會在我們的 NGL 實現價格中反映出來。我認為另一個順風因素是運費成本：你看到今年運費成本維持在高檔；大約一個月前我們達到創紀錄水準，這是因為通過巴拿馬運河的延誤——那裡眾所周知的低水位問題。

And so that's again something temporary. And if you look at the futures curves for LPG freight costs, they're backwardated, U.S. to Asia is about $0.12 per gallon lower by mid-summer of 2024 versus now, and it's a pretty steady decline in those expected costs. So that will also allow prices in the U.S. to rise as well as that freight cost declines.

因此那同樣是暫時性的。如果你看 LPG 運費成本的期貨曲線，它是逆價差（backwardated）；到 2024 年仲夏，美國到亞洲的運費大約會比現在每加侖低 0.12 美元，而且預期成本呈現相當穩定的下降趨勢。因此，隨著運費下降，也將使美國的價格有上升空間。

On the oil side, nothing I think that we can provide specific to that. Obviously, there's a lot of moving parts with geopolitical risks and OPEC. I do think we're seeing, particularly on the NGL side, the supply response as we've seen the rig count decline. You saw some very steep increases in U.S. propane inventories back in the spring, even though exports were strong.

在原油方面，我想我們無法提供具體的看法。顯然，地緣政治風險與 OPEC 等因素變動很多。我確實認為，特別是在 NGL 端，隨著鑽機數下降，我們正在看到供給端的回應。你在春季看到美國丙烷庫存大幅增加，即使出口很強。

And as we move through the back half of the year with similar levels on exports, you've seen those propane increases wane, would come back into the 5-year range. So I think that, to me, points to what we talked about with the rig counts where things are responding on the supply side here domestically as well, and we'll have to see if that plays out on the oil side in 2024.

而當我們進入下半年，在出口水準相近的情況下，你看到丙烷庫存的增幅趨緩，並回到 5 年區間。我認為，對我而言，這呼應了我們談到的鑽機數：國內供給端正在做出反應；至於 2024 年在原油端是否也會如此，還需要再觀察。

Very helpful. I guess the next question which I had is I just wanted to follow up on the operational momentum, which has been really strong here recently. Would love your initial thoughts on 2024 production and capital spending outlook. And also if you can touch a little bit on deflation and what you're expecting there too, which can probably add some upside to 10% reduction number which you were talking about from a capital spending perspective.

非常有幫助。我接下來的問題是想追問近期非常強勁的營運動能。想聽聽你們對 2024 年產量與資本支出展望的初步看法。另外也請談一下通縮（deflation）以及你們對其的預期；從資本支出的角度來看，這可能會為你們所提到的「降低 10%」數字帶來一些額外上行空間。

Yes. We're not baking in any deflation. My comments earlier were just addressing the operational efficiencies, capital program efficiencies and well performance that we've experienced this year. And assuming those type of efficiencies and performance will allow us to kind of dial in which capital we want depending on whether we want to keep today's production flat or what we communicated earlier, the kind of the annual average from last time of 3.35 to 3.4.

是的。我們並沒有把任何通縮因素納入假設。我先前的評論只是針對我們今年所經歷的營運效率、資本計畫效率以及井的表現。並且假設這類效率與表現能讓我們依據想要的目標來調整資本投入——取決於我們是想讓目前的產量持平，或是如同先前所溝通的、上次提到的年度平均約 3.35 到 3.4。

So that's what we're in the process of doing this quarter. So we'll go through our typical process and then come out with those -- generally, we come out with the budget with the February release with the year-end release. So we'll just work through that and continue to watch the market, but we're not assuming any deflationary aspects in that capital budget. That would just be upside.

所以這就是我們本季正在進行的工作。我們會走完一貫的流程，然後通常會在 2 月發布的年終公告中一併公布預算。因此我們會把這些工作做完並持續觀察市場，但在該資本預算中我們並未假設任何通縮面向；若真的發生，那只會是上行利多。

The next question is from Arun Jayaram of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Arun Jayaram。

Yes, Mike, I wanted to get your thoughts on, so you said 10% lower CapEx next year and that would be to keep the current production outlook, what you're doing today, relatively flat. And then if you drill down to 3.35 to 3.4, it would be more than 10%. I just wonder if you can clarify those comments.

是的，Mike，我想請教你的看法。你提到明年資本支出（CapEx）會降低 10%，而那是為了維持目前的產量展望、也就是你們今天正在做的事情，讓產量大致持平。然後如果你把目標下修到 3.35 到 3.4，那降幅會超過 10%。我想請你釐清一下這些說法。

Yes. Okay.

是的。好的。

Got it. Got it. And then just -- I know it's hard to estimate land spend because you're opportunistic on that front. But if you're recommending kind of a placeholder for land spend in 2024, any just broad thoughts on that?

了解。了解。然後再問一下——我知道土地支出很難估算，因為你們在這方面是機會導向。但如果你要建議在 2024 年對土地支出先放一個占位數，有沒有任何大方向的想法？

Yes. It was in the last comments, we always target in a traditional year unlike 2022 when we had a pretty big effort to increase that land position with the amount of free cash flow we had. But we typically always target $75 million to $100 million a year. That's our traditional and kind of customary commodity price environments.

是的。就像先前的評論，在一般傳統年度——不同於 2022 年，當時我們因為有相當多的自由現金流而大幅投入以擴大土地部位——但我們通常每年都會以 7,500 萬到 1 億美元為目標。這是在我們傳統、也算是慣常的大宗商品價格環境下的水準。

So that's why you would assume this third quarter ratcheted down to $27 million, will be down in the fourth quarter from there, too. So that run rate is around -- we're at like $100 million. But generally, it's $75 million to $100 million capital budget for land.

所以你會看到第三季已經下調到 2,700 萬美元，第四季也會在此基礎上再下降。因此那個運行速度大概是——我們目前大約在 1 億美元左右。但一般而言，土地的資本預算是 7,500 萬到 1 億美元。

Great. And just my follow-up, Mike, is how do you think we should think about production costs next year, obviously, fuel costs, maybe some of the savings are transitory, but you got CPI inflators, the AM escalator, but just give us a broad strokes around thinking about kind of production costs as we move into 2024?

很好。那我追問一下，Mike，你認為我們應該如何看待明年的生產成本？顯然燃料成本可能有些節省是短暫的，但你們也有 CPI 調整因子、AM 調升條款（escalator）。請你用大方向談談，隨著我們進入 2024 年，該如何思考生產成本。

Yes, it's really commodity price dependent. I mean we pretty much have flat, although we -- next year, we do have an uptick of about $0.05 on production ad valorem taxes because that's just commodity price, gas prices up $0.75. So that's how you kind of get to that. And then similar on the GP&T up a nickel as well, just on the fuel cost. So assuming we have these increased kind of $3.50 type of commodity price next year, which is the strip, we're up about a dime.

是的，這真的取決於商品價格。我的意思是，我們基本上是持平，雖然——明年我們的生產從價稅（ad valorem taxes）會上升約 0.05 美元，因為那就是跟商品價格連動；天然氣價格上升 0.75 美元，所以你大概就是這樣推導出來的。然後在 GP&T（集輸與處理）方面也會上升 0.05 美元，同樣是因為燃料成本。因此假設明年商品價格提高到約 3.50 美元這種水準（也就是期貨曲線），我們大概會上升約 0.10 美元。

A dime? What about the AM escalator?

0.10 美元？那 AM 調升條款呢？

That's baked into that dime.

那已經包含在那 0.10 美元裡了。

That's baked into dime. Okay.

已經包含在 0.10 美元裡。好的。

The next question is from Roger Read of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的 Roger Read。

I guess a couple of things I'd like to just dig into a little bit. As you think about the improvement you've shown in capital efficiencies without getting too granular on the outlook, what is your expectation on how much further you can go with that?

我想有幾點想再深入一點。當你們思考今年在資本效率上的改善、又不必把展望講得太細時，你對於還能再進一步改善多少，有什麼預期？

Well, that's a good question. What improved from this year is, we are assuming coming into the year that we'd average about 8.7 stages per day in completions and then about 6 to 7 days per 10,000 in drilling, and we've improved 2 stages per day or more than that at 11 stages and completions and about a day improvement on the drilling.

嗯，這是個好問題。今年改善的部分是：我們在年初假設完井平均約每天 8.7 個壓裂段（stages），鑽井則是每 10,000 英尺約 6 到 7 天；而我們已經把完井提升了每天 2 個壓裂段，甚至更多，達到每天 11 個壓裂段，鑽井也改善了大約 1 天。

This time last year, I would have said that we wouldn't have been able to achieve those improvements. So we'll probably assume those same levels I just mentioned going into next year, but we're always looking for continuous improvement.

如果是在去年這個時候，我會說我們不可能達成這些改善。所以我們明年大概會以我剛提到的同樣水準作為假設，但我們也一直在尋求持續改善。

Paul mentioned the record completion of the 17 hours per day on the completion. It would be great to improve upon that, if you did, you can maybe get some out of the completion stages per day, but those are still probably industry-leading levels. So I wouldn't assume any improvement from there, but we're always trying to achieve it.

Paul 提到完井作業創下每天 17 小時的紀錄。如果能在此基礎上再提升當然很好；若真的做到，或許能在每天完井壓裂段數上再擠出一些提升，但那仍可能是業界領先的水準。所以我不會假設在此之上還會再改善，但我們會持續努力達成。

No, that's fair. It's certainly been a nice driver within the industry overall, but I'm glad to see you all at the top of the pack. The only other question I've got really is, is there anything we should think about as we look into, let's just say, the next 6 months or so, that you would expect changes on realizations across your portfolio, meaning whether it's the gas side or the NGL side? Or we should just basically look at kind of where we've been and think that's the right way to look at things?

不，這很合理。這確實一直是整個產業很好的驅動因素，但我也很高興看到你們位居前段班。我唯一還有的問題是：當我們展望未來大概 6 個月左右，有沒有什麼是我們在你們整體組合的實現價格（realizations）上需要留意、你預期會有變化的？不論是天然氣端或 NGL 端？還是我們基本上就看你們目前的狀況，並認為那就是正確的看法？

No, we were wide in Q3 because of the maintenance on Cove Point, Tennessee pipe. So we sold about 15% to TCO, and that was wide in the third quarter. It's always weak in the third and fourth quarters during the shoulder months going in the winter. That has improved quite a bit in Q4.

沒有。我們第三季的價差（basis）比較寬，是因為 Cove Point 與 Tennessee 管線在維護。所以我們大約有 15% 賣給 TCO，而第三季那部分的價差比較寬。第三、第四季在進入冬季前的淡旺季交替月份（shoulder months）通常都比較疲弱。第四季已經改善很多。

Those maintenance capital events have subsided. So we'll sell a lot more in the Gulf Coast. And then when you look at the Gulf Coast going into the winter, those are actually at premium prices to Henry Hub, like Justin mentioned on his slide that interesting slide around the Tier 1 levels and goes right into the LNG corridor where there's a lot of demand for the gas.

那些維護性的資本事件已經告一段落。所以我們會有更多銷往墨西哥灣沿岸（Gulf Coast）。而且你看墨西哥灣沿岸進入冬季時，實際上價格是相對 Henry Hub 有溢價的，就像 Justin 在投影片上提到的那張有趣的投影片，談到 Tier 1 水準，並且正好進入 LNG 走廊，那裡對天然氣的需求很大。

We also have quite a bit going to Chicago during the winter, which may be up to $0.50 ahead of Henry Hub right now, and we're bringing 7 wells on in the Utica just in time to enjoy the Chicago gas prices filling our ex capacity. So I see realizations improving quite a bit in the fourth quarter and heading into 2024.

我們冬季也有相當多的量會送往芝加哥，目前可能比 Henry Hub 高出最多 0.50 美元；而我們在 Utica 有 7 口井將在剛好趕上時點投產，享受芝加哥的天然氣價格，同時填滿我們的 ex 產能。因此我認為第四季的實現價格會明顯改善，並延續到 2024 年。

The next question is from David Deckelbaum of Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 David Deckelbaum。

Mike, you threw out some exciting numbers, I think, for the next year. The $650 million, I guess, true maintenance versus maybe an $800 million to stay at that 3.5% level or so. Can you just talk about the variables that are influencing that decision? And I guess, as I think about it, is there a breakeven price? Is it $4 gas that would incentivize you to stay at a higher level.

Mike，你拋出了一些我認為很令人振奮的明年數字。6.5 億美元，我想，是真正的維持性資本（true maintenance），而若要維持在大約 3.5% 那個水準，可能需要 8 億美元。你能談談影響這個決策的變數嗎？另外我在想，有沒有一個損益兩平價格？例如天然氣 4 美元會不會激勵你們維持在較高水準？

Are you being influenced by perhaps like some of the revolver balance that you have right now and wanting to accelerate max free cash in the beginning of the year. I guess, what would be the primary factors that you consider between those 2 variables?

你們是否也受到目前循環信貸（revolver）餘額的影響，想在年初加速把自由現金流做到最大？也就是說，在這兩個選項之間，你們考量的主要因素會是什麼？

Yes, the $650 million to $700 million was what it would have been required to hold that 3.2 Bcfe a day flat. Total 3.35 to 3.4 would have been $100 million or so higher. As I mentioned, the rule of thumb is every $100 million a day of capital is $100 million a day of production.

是的，6.5 億到 7 億美元是用來讓 32 億立方英尺當量/日（3.2 Bcfe a day）維持持平所需要的資本。若要做到總量 3.35 到 3.4，大概會再高出約 1 億美元。如我提到的經驗法則是：每增加 1 億美元/年的資本，大致對應約 1 億立方英尺當量/日的產量。

So higher than that to hold the 3.35, 3.4, but well below that 10%. It's kind of how we think about it. It's going to be somewhat commodity price dependent, David. We're obviously heavily influenced by generating free cash flow and paying down all our debt and returning capital to shareholders.

所以要高於那個水準才能維持 3.35、3.4，但又遠低於 10%。我們大致是這樣看待的。這在某種程度上會取決於商品價格，David。我們顯然深受產生自由現金流、償還所有債務以及把資本回饋給股東的影響。

So that's ultimately the #1 filter we use. We also want to be extremely capital efficient. So we do have kind of a 2.5 rigs signed up for next year. So that's kind of the main case. And then we kind of have a floating -- we have one completion crew and then a floating completion crew. So that's kind of how we manage capital.

所以這最終是我們使用的第一道篩選條件。我們也希望資本效率極高。因此，我們確實已為明年簽下大約 2.5 部鑽機。這算是主要情境。然後我們有一支固定的——我們有一支完井隊，另外還有一支機動完井隊。這就是我們管理資本的方式。

So we have the flexibility to do whichever program we choose or a variation in between. And that's something we'll have to consider as we go through this budgeting process and watch commodity prices over the next couple of months.

因此，我們有彈性去執行我們選擇的任何方案，或介於兩者之間的變化。這也是我們在走完這次預算編製流程、並在接下來幾個月觀察商品價格時必須考量的事情。

It doesn't sound like as you think about like a multiyear progression, are you inherently more operationally efficient with sort of that 3-rig and 2-crew program?

聽起來就像你在思考多年度的推進時，你們在營運上是否天生就會在那種 3 部鑽機、2 支完井隊的方案下更有效率？

Yes. We're much more efficient to that. And when you think about that, we have the drilling JV. So we really only have 85% of that. And this year is really a 3-rig program and a 1.5 completion crew. Next year, you're kind of looking at a 2.5 rig and a 1.5 completion crew, again, only having 85%, and we can step that down the following year when the drilling JV end.

是的。在那種情況下我們效率高得多。而且當你這樣想時，我們有鑽井合資（JV）。所以我們實際上只擁有其中的 85%。今年基本上是 3 部鑽機方案與 1.5 支完井隊。明年你大概會看到 2.5 部鑽機與 1.5 支完井隊，同樣也只有 85% 的權益；而在鑽井 JV 結束後的下一年，我們可以再把規模往下調。

So we've just become remarkably efficient just with our contiguous acreage position, having all the infrastructure in place, having all the transport, having all the processing and then working on our operational efficiencies and having this much success. We've just continue to become more and more efficient and drill terrific wells.

所以我們因為連片的土地部位、所有基礎設施到位、所有運輸到位、所有處理設施到位，再加上持續改善營運效率並取得這麼多成功，而變得非常非常有效率。我們只是不斷變得更有效率，並鑽出非常出色的井。

Would you guys just mind updating us? It's all very helpful and just the Shell cracker progression and some of the assumptions that we should be thinking about your ethane volumes for next year?

你們介意更新一下嗎？這些都很有幫助——關於 Shell 裂解廠的進度，以及我們在思考明年你們乙烷量時應該採用的一些假設？

Yes, nothing new to what they've guided publicly on. They're doing some work on 1 of the 3 downstream units that's expected to be wrapped up by the end of the year. So 2024, we expect to see significantly higher and more stable volumes from us going to that facility.

是的，沒有超出他們公開指引的新內容。他們正在對 3 個下游單元中的 1 個進行一些工作，預計在年底前完成。因此在 2024 年，我們預期我們送往該設施的量將顯著提高且更穩定。

So you would expect to see that show up in our net production. We also have a handful of other customers that will be calling on us for more ethane on contracts that are ramping up in 2024 as well. So I think you'll see a combination of the shell cracker effect as well as others in the net production in '24 on the ethane side.

所以你會預期這會反映在我們的淨產量上。我們也還有少數其他客戶，合約在 2024 年也會逐步放量，將向我們要求更多乙烷。因此我認為你會在 2024 年乙烷端的淨產量中，同時看到 Shell 裂解廠效應以及其他因素的綜合影響。

Yes. And then further to that, when it comes to the ethane cracker, we always risk that quite heavily. And that's why you've seen with -- even with the start-up delays that we've had this year with the ethane cracker. We're still well ahead of production guidance, and we actually guided our ethane volumes down recently.

是的。另外，談到乙烷裂解廠時，我們一向會對此做相當保守的風險調整。這也是為什麼你看到——即使今年乙烷裂解廠啟動有所延遲——我們仍然大幅超出產量指引，而且我們最近其實還把乙烷量指引下修了。

So the production that we're talking about levels will be risked for further kind of just start up. Your typical start-up issues. And then if the ethane cracker actually does perform a little bit better in the year that will just be upside to volumes.

所以我們所談的產量水準，會針對後續啟動再做風險調整，也就是典型的啟動問題。然後如果乙烷裂解廠在今年的表現其實更好一些，那就會成為量的上行空間。

The next question is from Jean Salisbury of Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Jean Salisbury。

As you mentioned, we're seeing LPG export capacity tightness along the Gulf Coast. How much flexibility does Antero have to export more from the East Coast, which I think has a little bit more spare capacity?

如你所提到的，我們看到墨西哥灣沿岸的 LPG 出口能力偏緊。Antero 在從東岸出口更多方面有多少彈性？我認為那邊的閒置能力稍微多一些。

Well, we do a pretty good job with that, in particular, in the time of the year where you want to export as much as possible, which is the shoulder months, spring through summer and into the fall. There's times of the year where we're sending 85%, 90% of our propane to the international docks.

嗯，我們在這方面做得相當不錯，特別是在一年中你希望盡可能多出口的時段，也就是淡旺季交替月份——春季到夏季再到秋季。有些時候我們會把 85%、90% 的丙烷送到國際碼頭。

So hard to really get much above that. But you want to leave some flexibility for domestic and for variations in production month-to-month, but we try and maximize that as much as we can during the non-heating season.

所以要再高於那個比例其實很難。但你也希望保留一些彈性給國內市場，以及因應每月產量的變動；不過在非供暖季期間，我們會盡可能把出口最大化。

Okay. That makes sense. And then you kind of touched on this on an earlier question, but your local gas realizations were a little bit lower due to maintenance at Cove Point in Tennessee. Was that kind of this perfect storm where it was also kind of poor basis because of the high storage?

好的，這很合理。然後你在前面一個問題也稍微提到，你們當地天然氣實現價格因為田納西的 Cove Point 維護而略低。那是否算是一種「完美風暴」——同時也因為庫存很高導致基差表現不佳？

And is that like a lot more maintenance than usual in the season? Or do you view it as just everything is more volatile now that everything is quite full when there's any maintenance event, it kind of flows out?

而且那一季的維護是否比平常多很多？還是你認為只是因為現在庫存都很滿，所以只要有任何維護事件，波動就會更大、價格就會被擠出去？

Yes, it was a good way to put it. That was the perfect storm and the backup volumes from Cove Point and the TCO and in the backup volumes from Tennessee and the TCO just led to a really wide basis. It was historic. It was the widest basis we've seen at TCO. So all that is subsided, though going into Q4 with Cove Point being back on and Tennessee flowing so.

是的，你形容得很好。那就是完美風暴：Cove Point 的回流量、TCO 的回流量，以及田納西與 TCO 的回流量，導致基差被拉得非常寬。那是歷史性的，是我們在 TCO 見過最寬的基差。不過進入第四季後，隨著 Cove Point 恢復、田納西也開始輸送，這些情況都已經消退了。

The next question is from Jacob Roberts of Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

下一個問題來自 Tudor, Pickering, Holt 的 Jacob Roberts。

We appreciate the macro commentary and the detail you guys gave in the near to medium term. Just curious, and maybe a 2025 plus time frame, what you would need to see in the forward curve to potentially allocate more capital to dryer areas?

感謝你們對總體環境的評論，以及你們在短中期提供的細節。我想問的是，可能在 2025 年以後的時間框架，你們需要在遠期曲線上看到什麼，才可能把更多資本配置到較乾的區域？

Yes. I mean good question. It's obviously always relative to liquids, but liquids does have some constraints around processing. So you could envision a scenario if there is a call on gas, which we believe could have very much occur with the build-out of the LNG during that time frame you referenced that you would need more gas, and we have the ability to deliver more gas through our dry gas acreage inventory.

是的，這是個好問題。顯然這永遠是相對於液體（NGL/液態）而言，但液體在處理能力方面確實有一些限制。所以你可以想像一種情境：如果市場對天然氣有需求——我們相信在你提到的那段期間，隨著 LNG 擴建，這很可能發生——那你就會需要更多天然氣，而我們也有能力透過我們的乾氣土地庫存提供更多天然氣。

You could see a scenario there. But right now, we just program in maintenance capital holding these levels flat and then enjoying the higher commodity prices and the free cash flow and paying down debt and buying back shares. But there is possibility if it goes quite high. We essentially have over 1,000 locations of premium dry gas inventory held by production over in our eastern half of the field. So we have that optionality. But right now, when you model it out, we'll just have maintenance capital.

你可能會看到那樣的情境。但目前我們的做法是以維持性資本讓這些水準持平，然後享受較高的商品價格與自由現金流，用來償債與回購股票。不過如果價格走得相當高，確實存在可能性。我們在區塊東半部有超過 1,000 個由產量持有（held by production）的優質乾氣庫存井位。因此我們有那種選擇權。但就目前模型推演而言，我們只會投入維持性資本。

Next question is from Gregg Brody of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Gregg Brody。

Just on the volume decision, whether you keep 3Q, 4Q flat or what you originally thought you would be, how do you think about that and optimizing the Antero Midstream business. What's the -- how you think through that.

關於產量決策——你們是讓第三季、第四季持平，還是維持你們原先以為會達到的水準——你們如何思考這件事，以及如何最佳化 Antero Midstream 的業務？你們是怎麼推演的？

Yes, we don't really think about Antero Midstream. We think about Antero Resources and its free cash flow profile. Antero Midstream is just a beneficiary of the growth and capital efficiencies, and that all translates to them as well because they're getting much more production per well and it's very contiguous acreage, so very capital efficient. But we think from an AR perspective, how do we maximize free cash flow and the commodity price environment we're in.

是的，我們其實不太從 Antero Midstream 的角度去想。我們想的是 Antero Resources 以及它的自由現金流輪廓。Antero Midstream 只是成長與資本效率的受益者，而這些也會轉化到他們那邊，因為我們每口井的產量更高，而且土地非常連片，所以資本效率很高。但從 AR 的角度，我們思考的是如何在當前商品價格環境下把自由現金流最大化。

So if you have higher commodity prices, that would -- and that's what the strip suggests, then that would lead most likely to try to maintain a higher production level. If you had lower commodity prices, more like 2023 type pricing on natural gas, you would probably favor a lower capital budget. So that's kind of what we look at. We definitely want to maximize free cash flow at AR and use it to pay down the debt and return capital.

所以如果商品價格較高——而遠期曲線（strip）顯示如此——那很可能會導致我們嘗試維持較高的產量水準。如果商品價格較低，更像 2023 年那種天然氣定價，你可能就會偏向較低的資本預算。這大致就是我們看的方式。我們確實希望在 AR 端把自由現金流最大化，並用它來償還債務與回饋資本。

And just moving this consolidation, obviously, has been a big theme as of late. Obviously, you have a huge inventory that you can access. So there isn't necessarily a need to buy anything. But how are you thinking about that today? And then how does Antero Midstream fit into that discussion as well, if at all?

而且僅就這次整併而言，顯然最近一直是個重要主題。顯然，你們有龐大的庫存可供動用，所以未必一定需要再買任何東西。但你們今天是如何思考這件事的？另外，Antero Midstream 在這個討論中又如何納入（如果有的話）？

Yes. Well, we're just focused on an organic leasing strategy. That's the best capital we can spend from an M&A perspective. And Antero Midstream gets all the acreage from AR dedicated. And when we acquired the acreage, we worked really hard. And 99% of the time, it comes with free and clear from any midstream dedication.

是的。我們主要專注於有機的租賃策略。從併購（M&A）的角度來看，這是我們能投入的最好的資本。而 Antero Midstream 取得 AR 所專屬（dedicated）的所有區塊。當我們收購這些區塊時，我們非常努力地處理；而且在 99% 的情況下，這些區塊都會以不受任何中游專屬約束（midstream dedication）的方式，乾淨無負擔地取得。

So it's immediately dedicated to Antero Midstream. So those acreage adds really benefit AM, and that's why they have over a 20-year life of inventory behind their midstream assets. So the acreage accrues to AM as well.

因此它會立即專屬於 Antero Midstream。這些新增區塊確實讓 AM 受益，這也是為什麼他們的中游資產背後有超過 20 年的庫存壽命。所以這些區塊也會累積到 AM。

But then just maybe bigger picture, just you're seeing a lot of peers get -- there's discussions of peers getting bigger. I'm curious if that's making you think a little harder about M&A or status quo?

但再從更大的角度來看，你看到很多同業正在——市場上也在討論同業變得更大。我很好奇，這是否讓你更認真地思考併購，或是維持現狀？

No, we're focused on the operational efficiencies. I mean we've grown 9% year-over-year without doing M&A. So we are very operationally efficient. We've got no constraints. We've got all the acreage locations, the midstream, the processing, the firm transport to the LNG corridor, the balance sheet.

不，我們專注於營運效率。我的意思是，我們在不做併購的情況下，年增 9%。所以我們的營運非常有效率。我們沒有任何限制。我們擁有所有的區塊井位、中游、處理能力、通往 LNG 走廊的長約運輸（firm transport），以及資產負債表。

So if you put that all together, there's really no need for M&A. And then when you look at our operational efficiencies, it's really hard for us think of any play that would compete for capital compared to our future programs. So that's why we're focused on the organic leasing.

所以把這些都放在一起看，真的沒有併購的必要。再者，當你看我們的營運效率時，我們很難想到有任何標的能在資本競爭上勝過我們未來的計畫。因此我們才會專注於有機租賃。

All makes sense and consistent with the past. And just one last one, something you said on the call, which I think it's consistent with what you've implied in the past. But I think you have this debt target near term, I believe it's about $1 billion. You made a comment about paying down the debt. Is there an actual goal to get debt at Antero Resources to 0? Or is $1 billion the right number?

都合理，也與過去一致。最後一個問題，你在電話會議上提到的一點，我覺得也符合你過去暗示過的方向。不過我想你們短期有個負債目標，我相信大約是 10 億美元。你提到要償還債務。Antero Resources 的債務是否有實際目標要降到 0？還是 10 億美元才是合適的數字？

0 is the target.

0 是目標。

If you were to take a guess when that would happen by, when do you -- is that just a function of paying down debt (inaudible).

如果你要猜測大概會在什麼時候達成，你認為——那只是取決於償還債務的速度（聽不清）嗎？

(inaudible) prices. I would say that, like you mentioned, it's always been $1 billion is the goal. So the first -- the free cash flow will go to that first. Then once you get to the $1 billion and below, that would get you out of the credit facility and the '26 notes that are callable in January, then you look at it and say, well, maybe 50-50, probably a little bit more on the return of capital but it will just depend on commodity prices and where our bonds are priced.

（聽不清）價格。我會說，如你提到的，過去一直以來 10 億美元是目標。所以首先——自由現金流會先用在那上面。然後一旦你降到 10 億美元及以下，就能退出信貸額度（credit facility），以及 1 月可提前贖回（callable）的 2026 年到期票據（'26 notes）。接著你再看，可能會是 50-50，但大概會稍微更偏向資本回饋；不過這將取決於商品價格以及我們債券的定價水準。

I mean our 2030s are 5-3/8. So that's a good piece of paper, that's $600 million. So you may want to kind of keep that in the capital structure and buy back shares or return capital. But the other debt pieces are at pretty high interest rates that we'd like to take out.

我的意思是，我們 2030 年到期的票據利率是 5-3/8。那是一張不錯的債券，規模 6 億美元。所以你可能會想把它保留在資本結構中，並回購股票或回饋資本。但其他債務部分的利率相當高，我們希望把它們清掉。

Next question is from Subhasish Chandra of Benchmark.

下一個問題來自 Benchmark 的 Subhasish Chandra。

On the spot to sales improvement there over the years, I think a big element of that is just well sort of waiting on completion. So I guess my question is, can you describe sort of the path you took to reduce that time. And if you think that the program is going to maximize or I should say, minimize that variable going forward.

關於多年來現貨到銷售（spot to sales）的改善，我認為其中一個很大的因素就是基本上在等完井（completion）。所以我的問題是，你能否描述一下你們為了縮短那段時間所採取的路徑？以及你是否認為這個計畫未來會把這個變數最大化——或者我應該說，把這個變數最小化？

Yes. We don't really have any waiting on completion. We try to plan all of our programs that it's just in time. So when you're done drilling the well, you're on that pad completing it as soon as possible.

是的。我們其實不太會有等待完井的情況。我們會把所有計畫都規劃成「即時」（just in time）。所以當你把井鑽完，就會在那個井場（pad）上盡快開始完井。

So that's how we do it. There may be a week here or there where there's some -- we call it white space in the schedule. But generally, we try to minimize that and be as efficient as possible and not have any DUCs because that's nonperforming capital.

所以我們就是這樣做。可能偶爾會有一週左右出現一些——我們稱之為排程中的空檔（white space）。但一般而言，我們會盡量把它降到最低、盡可能有效率，而且不保留任何 DUC（已鑽未完井井），因為那是沒有產出的資本。

Yes. So I guess, several years back when it was 400 days plus, et cetera. What was different then?

了解。所以我想，幾年前當時是 400 天以上等等。那時候有什麼不同？

We can see our on that Slide 3, the pumping hours have almost -- are up like 65%. That's an 86% increase in completion stages per day and then the drilling times to have a greatly improved. So it's a combination of both. But to go from 427 year-to-date 160, it's over 60% reduction and that 160 is definitely sustainable.

你可以在第 3 張投影片看到，我們的壓裂泵送時數幾乎——增加了大約 65%。完井每日段數（completion stages per day）增加了 86%，鑽井時間也大幅改善。所以是兩者的綜合。但從年初至今 427 天降到 160 天，降幅超過 60%，而且 160 天絕對是可持續的。

Got it. Okay. And just a clarification, I guess, on the debt reduction question. 0, I guess, is the ultimate target, I guess, bank debt is there, I would assume, as a top priority to reduce the 0 first? And is that sort of.

明白了。好。再澄清一下關於降債的問題。0 我想是最終目標；那麼銀行債務（bank debt）在那裡，我會假設是優先要先降到 0 的第一順位？而且這是否算是——

Yes.

是的。

Is that sort of a priority before there's meaningful share buybacks? Or how do you sort of balance the two?

這是否會優先於有意義的股票回購？或者你們如何在兩者之間取得平衡？

Yes. The goal is always, and we had 0 bank debt essentially or near 0 coming into the year. So that would be the first use of the free cash flow is paying down that credit facility, then after that, it would be over 50% to return to shareholders. But we also have the '26 notes. There's less than $100 million on the callable in January. So I would kind of lump that together with the credit facility.

是的。目標一直都是如此，而且我們在年初時基本上銀行債務為 0 或接近 0。所以自由現金流的第一個用途會是先償還那個信貸額度（credit facility）；之後，將有超過 50% 用於回饋股東。但我們也有 2026 年到期票據（'26 notes）。其中 1 月可提前贖回的不到 1 億美元。所以我會把那部分和信貸額度一起看待。

There are no additional questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back to Brendan Krueger for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我想把電話會議交回給 Brendan Krueger 作結語。

Yes. Thank you for joining us on today's call. Please reach out with any further questions. Thank you.

是的。感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。如有任何進一步問題，請與我們聯繫。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以掛斷電話線。感謝您的參與。