Antero Resources Corporation (AR) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Antero Resources Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Brendan Krueger, Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead, Brendan.

您好，歡迎收聽 Antero Resources 2023 年第四季財報電話會議與網路直播。（接線員指示）提醒您，本次會議將被錄音。現在我很榮幸將電話交給財務副總裁 Brendan Krueger。Brendan，請開始。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for Antero's Fourth Quarter 2023 Investor Conference Call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operating highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteroresources.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

謝謝。各位早安。感謝各位參加 Antero 2023 年第四季投資人電話會議。我們將花幾分鐘回顧財務與營運重點，之後開放問答。我也想請各位前往我們網站首頁 www.anteroresources.com，我們已提供一份獨立的財報電話會議簡報，將在今天的會議中一併檢視。

Today's call may contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議可能包含某些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。請參閱我們的財報新聞稿，以了解與此類衡量指標相關的重要揭露資訊，包括與最可比較之 GAAP 財務衡量指標的調節表。

Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman, CEO and President; Michael Kennedy, CFO; Dave Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing and Transportation; and Justin Fowler, Senior Vice President of Natural Gas Marketing. I will now turn the call over to Paul.

今天與我一同參與電話會議的有：董事長、執行長兼總裁 Paul Rady；財務長 Michael Kennedy；液體產品行銷與運輸資深副總裁 Dave Cannelongo；以及天然氣行銷資深副總裁 Justin Fowler。現在我將電話交給 Paul。

Thanks, Brendan. Good morning, everyone. I'll start my comments on Slide #3 of our presentation, titled Drilling and Completion Efficiencies.

謝謝，Brendan。各位早安。我將從簡報第 3 頁開始，我的評論主題為「鑽井與完井效率」。

2023 was a transformational year for Antero as our operating performance made significant advances. Our Drilling and Completions teams set a number of company and industry records throughout the year. As an example, days per 10,000 feet of lateral drilled averaged 5.5 days in 2023, a decline of 14% since 2019. On the Completion side, 2023 completion stages per day averaged nearly 11 stages a day, 35% improvement compared to the 2022 average and more than an 80% increase from 2019 levels.

2023 年對 Antero 而言是具轉型意義的一年，我們的營運表現有顯著進展。我們的鑽井與完井團隊在全年創下多項公司與產業紀錄。舉例來說，2023 年每鑽進 10,000 英尺水平段的平均天數為 5.5 天，較 2019 年下降 14%。在完井方面，2023 年每日平均完井段數接近 11 段，較 2022 年平均提升 35%，相較 2019 年水準更增加逾 80%。

The results of these operational improvements was significantly shorter cycle times, as shown on the bottom of the page. These cycle times reflect the total number of days it takes on average from first spudding a pad to turning that entire pad to sales. Since 2019, our cycle times have decreased by an impressive 65% and averaged just 160 days in 2023. Shorter cycle times means higher capital efficiency, of course.

這些營運改善的成果是週期時間大幅縮短，如頁面下方所示。這些週期時間反映從首次在井場平台（pad）開鑽（spud）到該平台全部井轉入銷售（turn to sales）所需的平均總天數。自 2019 年以來，我們的週期時間大幅下降 65%，並於 2023 年平均僅 160 天。週期時間縮短，當然意味著更高的資本效率。

In addition, our well performance continues to improve. This operating momentum is highlighted by the fact that while targeting a maintenance capital program this last year, our volumes actually grew 6% in 2023 compared to 2022. Most importantly, these capital efficiencies and well productivity gains drive a reduced maintenance capital budget.

此外，我們的單井表現持續改善。這股營運動能可由以下事實凸顯：去年在以維持性資本計畫為目標的情況下，我們的產量在 2023 年相較 2022 年仍成長 6%。最重要的是，這些資本效率與單井生產力提升，將帶動維持性資本預算下降。

Now let's turn to Slide #4 titled, Efficiencies Translate to Lower Maintenance Capital in 2024 In 2024, we expect production to be flat, averaging between 3.3 and 3.4 Bcf equivalent a day. Meanwhile, our Drilling and Completion capital is expected to be down over 25% compared to the prior year. Our maintenance capital budget midpoint of $675 million is over $225 million below the $909 million that we spent in 2023. The operating efficiency gains captured in 2023 allowed us to drop 1 drilling rig at the end of last year and then to drop a completion crew at the beginning of this year. We now plan to average 2 drilling rigs and just over 1 completion crew for our maintenance capital program in 2024.

接著請看第 4 頁，標題為「效率轉化為 2024 年更低的維持性資本」。2024 年，我們預期產量持平，平均介於每日 3.3 至 3.4 Bcf 當量。同時，我們的鑽井與完井資本預計較前一年下降逾 25%。我們維持性資本預算中位數為 6.75 億美元，較 2023 年支出的 9.09 億美元低逾 2.25 億美元。2023 年所取得的營運效率提升，使我們在去年底減少 1 部鑽機，並在今年初再減少 1 組完井隊。我們目前規劃在 2024 年的維持性資本計畫中，平均使用 2 部鑽機與略高於 1 組完井隊。

Also contributing to our reduced capital budget is a lower base decline rate. As we enter year 4 of our maintenance capital program, our decline rate is substantially lower in the mid- to low-20% range. This low decline rate requires less capital to hold production flat. In addition, our land capital budget midpoint of $88 million is down over $60 million compared to 2023. In total, this will result in $275 million to $300 million of reduced capital spending compared to last year while maintaining the same production level. This significant reduction in capital highlights the high-quality asset base at Antero and the flexibility that we have.

同樣促成資本預算下降的因素還包括較低的基礎遞減率。隨著我們進入維持性資本計畫的第 4 年，我們的遞減率已顯著降低至約 20% 中段至低段區間。較低的遞減率意味著要維持產量持平所需的資本更少。此外，我們的土地資本預算中位數為 8,800 萬美元，較 2023 年下降逾 6,000 萬美元。整體而言，在維持相同產量水準的同時，與去年相比資本支出將減少 2.75 億至 3.00 億美元。這項大幅的資本下降凸顯 Antero 資產基礎的高品質以及我們所具備的彈性。

As we look ahead to 2024, these significant capital savings, combined with the recent increase in NGL prices, is expected to generate free cash flow during the year. This positive free cash flow generation is expected to occur despite being unhedged in today's challenging natural gas price environment. This positive free cash flow outlook is even more impressive when considering that the current strip is at the lowest natural gas price for any calendar year outside of the COVID year in the last 25 years.

展望 2024 年，這些可觀的資本節省，加上近期 NGL 價格上漲，預期將在今年帶來自由現金流。即使在當前具挑戰性的天然氣價格環境下、且我們目前未進行避險，仍預期能產生正向自由現金流。若考量目前期貨曲線（strip）所反映的天然氣價格，為過去 25 年中除 COVID 年以外任何曆年的最低水準，這樣的正向自由現金流展望更顯得令人印象深刻。

Now, to touch on the current liquids and NGL fundamentals, I'm going to turn it over to our Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing and Transportation, Dave Cannelongo for his comments.

接下來談到目前液體產品與 NGL 的基本面，我將把時間交給我們液體產品行銷與運輸資深副總裁 Dave Cannelongo，請他發表看法。

Thanks, Paul. The macro picture for NGLs has improved materially this winter due to a combination of strong domestic demand and consistently high export levels despite the challenges seen in the global waterborne shipping environment.

謝謝，Paul。由於國內需求強勁與出口水準持續偏高的雙重因素，儘管全球海運環境面臨挑戰，今年冬季 NGL 的總體情勢已明顯改善。

Focusing on propane, as a result of the strong exports and winter weather, inventories have declined by 45 million barrels since October. In just a few months, propane stocks have moved from the high end of the 5-year range to 5-year average levels, as shown on Slide #5. This return of propane inventories to the historical average has tightened the market and driven bullish sentiment with C3+ NGL prices as a percent of WTI increasing from 43% last fall to 57% today, driven largely by propane prices rising to above $0.90 a gallon.

聚焦丙烷方面，受強勁出口與冬季天候影響，自 10 月以來庫存已下降 4,500 萬桶。在短短數個月內，如第 5 頁所示，丙烷庫存已從 5 年區間的高端回落至 5 年平均水準。丙烷庫存回到歷史平均使市場趨緊，並帶動偏多情緒；C3+ NGL 價格占 WTI 的比重由去年秋季的 43% 上升至目前的 57%，主要由丙烷價格上升至每加侖 0.90 美元以上所驅動。

Slide #6 illustrates the strengthening relationship we've seen between WTI and C3+ NGLs in recent months as Antero's NGL price has increased from $38 per barrel on average during 2023 to over $43 per barrel currently. In addition to the strong domestic fundamentals, propane exports have continued to impress. Last year was a record year for propane exports, which averaged 1.62 million barrels per day for the full year 2023, as shown on Slide #7.

第 6 頁說明近幾個月我們觀察到 WTI 與 C3+ NGL 之間的連動關係轉強，Antero 的 NGL 價格已由 2023 年平均每桶 38 美元上升至目前每桶 43 美元以上。除了強勁的國內基本面之外，丙烷出口也持續亮眼。去年為丙烷出口的創紀錄年度，2023 全年平均出口量為每日 162 萬桶，如第 7 頁所示。

2024 has also started off strong with exports averaging 1.72 million barrels per day year-to-date, an increase of nearly 200,000 barrels per day, above the same weeks last year. These strong exports are continuing -- are occurring despite major volatility in global shipping routes, including restrictions on passage through the Panama Canal and rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East affecting passages through the Suez Canal and Red Sea.

2024 年開局同樣強勁，年初至今出口平均為每日 172 萬桶，較去年同期週別增加近 20 萬桶。這些強勁出口仍在持續——並且是在全球航運路線出現重大波動的情況下發生，包括巴拿馬運河通行受限，以及中東地緣政治風險升高，影響蘇伊士運河與紅海航道通行。

The Baltic LPG rate, which is a metric of the shipping cost of liquefied petroleum gas on a VLGC or Very Large Gas Carrier, increased to record levels at the end of 2023, primarily due to limitations on Panama Canal transits that resulted in shipping capacity being tied up in longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope as shown on the graph on the right of Slide #8. However, this trend has reversed recently as the effects of the Panama Canal restrictions on LPG carriers have eased with Canal passages increasing in January as a result of the global shipping reshuffling.

波羅的海 LPG 運價（Baltic LPG rate）是衡量以 VLGC（Very Large Gas Carrier，超大型氣體運輸船）運送液化石油氣之航運成本的指標。該運價在 2023 年底升至創紀錄水準，主要因巴拿馬運河通行限制，導致船舶改走繞行好望角的較長航線、使運力被占用，如第 8 頁右側圖表所示。然而，近期此趨勢已反轉；隨著全球航運重新調度，巴拿馬運河通行限制對 LPG 船舶的影響已趨緩，且 1 月通行量有所增加。

Additionally, last year was a banner year for VLGC newbuild deliveries with 41 deliveries in 2023, as seen on the graph on the left of Slide #8, which is more than double the typical yearly delivery. VLGC supply is expected to continue to grow in 2024 with 21 more ships being delivered. These deliveries are occurring at the right time in the market with U.S. LPG export growth and the current challenges facing global shipping that have increased transit times in altered routes.

此外，去年也是 VLGC 新造船交付的豐收年，2023 年共交付 41 艘，如第 8 頁左側圖表所示，超過典型年度交付量的兩倍。預期 2024 年 VLGC 供給將持續成長，另有 21 艘船舶將交付。這些交付發生在市場的適當時點，因美國 LPG 出口成長以及當前全球航運所面臨的挑戰，使改道航線的航程時間增加。

As a reminder, Antero exports over 50% of our C3+ production, skewed heavily towards propane and butane, directly out of the Marcus Hook terminal in Pennsylvania and has the ability to price our barrels on international indices. Antero will benefit from the current lower shipping rates by being able to capture more of the spread between domestic and international pricing for propane and butane.

提醒一下，Antero 將我們超過 50% 的 C3+ 產量出口，且以丙烷與丁烷為主，直接透過賓夕法尼亞州的 Marcus Hook 終端出口，並具備以國際指數為我們的每桶產品定價的能力。Antero 將受惠於目前較低的航運費率，得以在丙烷與丁烷的國內與國際定價之間捕捉更大的價差。

Also, Antero's export volumes are not impacted by potential constraints at the Gulf Coast export docks, which are at high utilization rates with current export levels and limited capacity expansions expected until 2025.

此外，Antero 的出口量不受墨西哥灣沿岸出口碼頭可能出現的限制影響；在目前出口水準下，這些碼頭的使用率已處於高檔，且預期在 2025 年之前的擴建產能相當有限。

I'll conclude my remarks this morning acknowledging that with these fundamentals I have just discussed, 2024 is poised to be yet another year in which our exposure to NGL pricing will be a supportive differentiator when compared to other natural gas producers. With that, I'll turn it over to our Senior Vice President of Natural Gas Marketing, Justin Fowler to discuss the natural gas market.

我將在今天上午的結語中指出，基於我剛才討論的這些基本面，2024 年可望再次成為相較於其他天然氣生產商，我們對 NGL 定價的曝險成為一項具支撐性的差異化優勢的一年。接下來，我把時間交給我們天然氣行銷資深副總裁 Justin Fowler，請他談談天然氣市場。

Thanks, Dave. I will start on Slide #9 titled, Growing Global LNG market. This is a slide that we have shown in the past, but is updated to reflect the potential impacts from the recent pause on LNG facility approvals from the U.S. government.

謝謝你，Dave。我將從第 9 張投影片開始，標題為「全球 LNG 市場成長」。這張投影片我們過去曾展示過，但已更新以反映美國政府近期暫停核准 LNG 設施所可能帶來的影響。

Regardless of the duration of this pause, we expect very little impact on LNG demand growth into the end of this decade. In fact, only 3 LNG facilities in our stacked chart could be impacted. You see those highlighted by the red boxes. The remaining projects still result in over 10 Bcf of incremental demand by the end of 2027. This would bring the current U.S. LNG export capacity of 14.5 Bcf per day to nearly 25 Bcf per day during that time. This is a substantial demand increase that we expect to tie U.S. natural gas prices more closely to the higher international prices.

不論這次暫停的時間長短，我們預期在本十年末之前，對 LNG 需求成長的影響非常有限。事實上，在我們的堆疊圖表中，可能受影響的 LNG 設施只有 3 座，你可以看到它們以紅框標示。其餘專案仍將在 2027 年底前帶來超過 10 Bcf 的新增需求。這將使目前美國 LNG 出口產能由每日 14.5 Bcf 提升至該期間接近每日 25 Bcf。這是一項可觀的需求增量，我們預期將使美國天然氣價格與較高的國際價格更緊密連動。

Antero is uniquely positioned to benefit from these higher expected U.S. natural gas prices, particularly prices linked to LNG demand growth near Henry Hub.

Antero 具備獨特的有利位置，可受惠於這些預期較高的美國天然氣價格，特別是與 Henry Hub 附近 LNG 需求成長連動的價格。

Next, let's turn to Slide #10 titled, Not All Transport to the U.S. Gulf Coast is Equal. As a reminder, we sell substantially all of our natural gas out of basin, including approximately 75% to the LNG corridor. Our firm transportation portfolio provides us with direct exposure to growing LNG demand along the Gulf Coast and importantly, into Tier 1 pricing points along the LNG corridor. This slide illustrates the significant benefit in selling our gas at Tier 1 Gulf Coast pricing.

接下來，請看第 10 張投影片，標題為「並非所有運往美國墨西哥灣沿岸的運輸都相同」。提醒一下，我們幾乎所有天然氣都在盆地外銷售，其中約 75% 銷往 LNG 走廊。我們的固定運輸（firm transportation）組合，讓我們能直接曝險於墨西哥灣沿岸成長中的 LNG 需求，更重要的是，能進入 LNG 走廊上的 Tier 1 定價點。本投影片說明在墨西哥灣沿岸以 Tier 1 價格銷售天然氣所帶來的顯著效益。

Based on the current strip, Tier 1 prices reflect increasing premiums to NYMEX in 2025 and beyond, including the TGP 500 Index, which represents 30% of the 2.0 Bcf per day of Antero directed Gulf firm transportation, where premiums have increased to $0.29 above NYMEX in 2026. Antero also delivers to A&R Southeast and Columbia Gulf Onshore points, which represents an additional 60% of premium delivery that over time will also appreciate with the current LNG export buildout.

根據目前的遠期曲線（strip），Tier 1 價格在 2025 年及之後相對 NYMEX 的溢價持續擴大，其中包括 TGP 500 指數；該指數涵蓋 Antero 指向墨西哥灣的 2.0 Bcf/日固定運輸量中的 30%，其溢價在 2026 年已提高至較 NYMEX 高出 0.29 美元。Antero 亦交付至 A&R Southeast 與 Columbia Gulf Onshore 定價點，這代表另外 60% 的溢價交付量，隨著目前 LNG 出口擴建的推進，這些溢價也將隨時間升值。

Meanwhile, there are a number of peers that sell their gas in Tier 3, which is currently trading almost $0.25 back of NYMEX in both 2025 and 2026. Further, we think Tier 3 pricing could continue to widen as LNG facilities are placed in service and Tier 1 pricing pushes higher. Yellow stars on the map highlight Antero sales points, which were strategically negotiated to bring our volumes directly to the LNG doorstep. As depicted in the pie chart on the top left-hand side of the slide, Antero sells 90% of its gas at Tier 1 pricing. This compares to the average of our peers, which sell 67% of their Gulf directed volumes in Tier 2 and Tier 3 pricing.

同時，有不少同業在 Tier 3 銷售其天然氣，而 Tier 3 目前在 2025 與 2026 年的交易價格均較 NYMEX 低近 0.25 美元。此外，我們認為隨著 LNG 設施投產、Tier 1 定價走高，Tier 3 定價折價可能持續擴大。地圖上的黃色星號標示 Antero 的銷售點，這些點位是策略性協商取得，以將我們的量直接送達 LNG 設施門口。如投影片左上角的圓餅圖所示，Antero 有 90% 的天然氣以 Tier 1 價格銷售。相較之下，同業平均僅有 67% 的指向墨西哥灣量以 Tier 2 與 Tier 3 價格銷售。

Looking ahead over the next 2 years as LNG export capacity increases by nearly 6 Bcf, we expect Antero sales points to be priced even higher versus NYMEX at these LNG facilities as they compete for supply. The premium received at these sales points could also see further upside due to the delays on certain downstream pipelines that had previously been expected in the Haynesville by the end of this year.

展望未來兩年，隨著 LNG 出口產能增加近 6 Bcf，我們預期在這些 LNG 設施為爭取供應而競爭之際，Antero 的銷售點相對 NYMEX 的定價將更高。由於部分原先預期在今年底前於 Haynesville 端建成的下游管線出現延遲，這些銷售點所取得的溢價也可能進一步上行。

Delays into 2025 or 2026 would make our already existing firm transportation that much more valuable in the growing LNG market.

若延遲延伸至 2025 或 2026 年，將使我們既有的固定運輸在成長中的 LNG 市場中更具價值。

Lastly, I would like to touch on power burn demand trends. Slide #11 titled, Power Burn Demand Continues to Outperform. This slide illustrates power burn demand over the last 10 years. Continued coal to natural gas switching, along with higher electrification demand for everything from electric vehicles to high-powered AI data centers leads to increasing natural gas power generation demand. Despite the majority of forecasts that you see, which project flat or even lower power burn demand, power burn demand in 2024 is once again outperforming expectations.

最後，我想談一下發電燃氣（power burn）需求趨勢。第 11 張投影片標題為「發電燃氣需求持續優於預期」。本投影片呈現過去 10 年的發電燃氣需求。持續的燃煤轉天然氣，以及從電動車到高功率 AI 資料中心等各類電氣化需求上升，帶動天然氣發電需求增加。儘管你所看到的大多數預測都推估發電燃氣需求持平甚至下降，但 2024 年的發電燃氣需求再次優於預期。

We believe there has been a structural shift toward reliable, clean and affordable natural gas that will continue to increase power burn demand annually going forward. This demand growth, combined with rising LNG and Mexico exports creates a significantly higher base demand level than we have ever experienced in the past. While there are certainly near-term storage challenges, we expect these fundamentals will provide support to natural gas prices and lead to periods of higher prices in the coming years.

我們認為市場已出現結構性轉變，朝向可靠、潔淨且可負擔的天然氣，未來將持續推升每年的發電燃氣需求。此需求成長再加上 LNG 與墨西哥出口增加，形成我們過去從未經歷過的顯著更高的基礎需求水準。雖然短期確實存在庫存方面的挑戰，但我們預期這些基本面將支撐天然氣價格，並在未來幾年帶來價格走高的時期。

With that, I will turn it over to Mike Kennedy, Antero's CFO.

接下來，我把時間交給 Antero 的財務長（CFO）Mike Kennedy。

Thanks, Justin. First, I'd like to discuss our multi-decade inventory position. Turning to Slide #12, titled AR has the Largest Low Cost Inventory. This chart compares inventory positions across our natural gas peer group based on data from a third-party report. Antero has the most sub $2.75 per Mcfe drilling inventory at 22 years. It is important to note that this inventory comparison is after our peers have spent a combined $30 billion on acquisitions over the past 3 years. In contrast, through our organic leasing efforts, we have invested $340 million over that time to acquire targeted drilling locations within our development footprint.

謝謝你，Justin。首先，我想討論我們跨數十年的庫存（inventory）部位。請看第 12 張投影片，標題為「AR 擁有最大規模的低成本庫存」。此圖表依據第三方報告資料，對比我們天然氣同業群的庫存部位。Antero 擁有最多的每 Mcfe 低於 2.75 美元的鑽井庫存，可支撐 22 年。需要強調的是，這項庫存比較是在同業於過去 3 年合計投入 300 億美元進行併購之後的結果。相較之下，透過我們的有機租賃（organic leasing）努力，我們在同一期間投資 3.4 億美元，在我們的開發範圍內取得目標鑽井位置。

On average, we have been able to add locations for less than $1 million per location through this program. This is less than half of the nearly $2 million average cost per location for the peer acquisitions. In 2023, Antero organically added over 100 premium core locations at an average cost per location of less than $1 million, more than offsetting its 2023 drilling program.

平均而言，透過此計畫我們新增每個位置的成本低於 100 萬美元。這不到同業併購案每個位置近 200 萬美元平均成本的一半。2023 年，Antero 以有機方式新增超過 100 個優質核心位置，平均每個位置成本低於 100 萬美元，且足以抵銷其 2023 年鑽井計畫所消耗的位置數量。

Next, I'd like to go a little deeper on the capital efficiency improvements that Paul touched on in his comments. The chart on Slide #13 compares capital efficiency of the natural gas peer group or the amount of capital required to achieve production targets. Antero has the lowest capital per Mcfe of its peer group at just $0.55 per Mcfe. This is 40% below the peer average of $0.92 per Mcfe. This capital efficiency measure is important when comparing asset quality and operating capabilities of each company.

接下來，我想更深入說明 Paul 在評論中提到的資本效率改善。第 13 張投影片的圖表比較天然氣同業群的資本效率，也就是達成產量目標所需的資本投入。Antero 在同業中每 Mcfe 所需資本最低，僅 0.55 美元/ Mcfe，較同業平均 0.92 美元/ Mcfe 低 40%。在比較各公司資產品質與營運能力時，這項資本效率指標相當重要。

The scatter plot on Slide #14 really magnifies the peer-leading capital efficiency at Antero. This chart shows the year-over-year change in production on the y-axis and the year-over-year change in Drilling and Completion capital on the x-axis for the natural gas peers. These estimates are based on company guidance for those that have announced 2024 guidance and consensus estimates for those that have not. When you compare the production targets for the Drilling and Completion capital invested to deliver that production, we are by far and away the most capital-efficient operator in Appalachia.

第 14 張投影片的散佈圖更凸顯 Antero 領先同業的資本效率。此圖表以 y 軸呈現同業天然氣公司產量的年增變化，以 x 軸呈現鑽井與完井資本（Drilling and Completion capital）的年增變化。這些估計係依據已公布 2024 年指引公司的公司指引，以及尚未公布者的市場一致預估（consensus estimates）。當你比較為達成產量目標所投入的鑽井與完井資本時，我們無疑是阿帕拉契亞地區資本效率最高的營運商。

Let's turn to Slide #15 titled, Free cash Flow Breakeven, which summarizes the benefits of our combined capital efficiency gains and high NGL exposure. Beginning at the top left-hand side of the slide, our total capital budget, Drilling and Completion plus Land capital is expected to be down nearly $300 million in 2024 compared to last year. Moving down to the bottom left-hand side of the slide, the 2024 NGL strip is more than $3 per barrel higher than in 2023. As a rule of thumb, every dollar change in NGL prices results in $40 million change in cash flow. Thus, higher NGL prices in 2024 drive $135 million increase in cash flow.

讓我們來看第15頁投影片，標題為「自由現金流損益兩平」，該頁總結了我們合併後資本效率提升與高NGL曝險所帶來的效益。從投影片左上角開始，我們的總資本預算（鑽井與完井加上土地資本）預期在2024年較去年減少近3億美元。往下到投影片左下角，2024年的NGL遠期價格帶（strip）較2023年每桶高出超過3美元。以經驗法則而言，NGL價格每變動1美元，現金流就會變動4,000萬美元。因此，2024年較高的NGL價格將帶動現金流增加1.35億美元。

In combination, the result is approximately $430 million of incremental cash flow in 2024 compared to 2023 from our capital efficiencies and NGL focus, and more than offsets the weakness in the natural gas market, even while being unhedged.

綜合而言，與2023年相比，我們在2024年因資本效率與NGL聚焦而帶來約4.3億美元的增量現金流，且即使在未避險的情況下，也足以抵銷天然氣市場的疲弱。

Turning to Slide #16. This slide compares free cash flow breakeven levels. Our low maintenance capital requirements and high exposure to liquids results in the lowest unhedged free cash flow breakeven price among our natural gas peers. As we look ahead, we believe Antero is best positioned to create significant shareholder value. We have product diversity as the largest NGL producer and exporter of LPG, the highest exposure of natural gas production to the LNG demand center and the lowest amount of hedge volumes, which creates substantial leverage to rising Henry Hub prices.

接著看第16頁投影片。本頁比較自由現金流損益兩平水準。我們低維持性資本需求與對液體的高曝險，使我們在天然氣同業中擁有最低的未避險自由現金流損益兩平價格。展望未來，我們認為Antero最具條件創造顯著的股東價值。我們具備產品多元性：作為最大的NGL生產商與LPG出口商、天然氣產量對LNG需求中心的最高曝險，以及最低的避險量，這使我們對Henry Hub價格上漲具有可觀的槓桿效應。

In addition, our realized prices have basis upside due to our premium sales points along the LNG fairway. Finally, we are the most capital efficient natural gas producer in the U.S. with the lowest free cash flow breakevens. Combination of downside protection from our liquids production, a strong balance sheet and lowest breakeven price combined with the upside exposure through our takeaway to the LNG demand center, places Antero on a significant competitive advantage as we move towards the substantial increase in demand expected from near-term LNG projects.

此外，由於我們在LNG走廊（fairway）沿線的優質銷售點，我們的實現價格在基差方面仍有上行空間。最後，我們是美國資本效率最高的天然氣生產商，擁有最低的自由現金流損益兩平。來自液體產量的下行保護、強健的資產負債表與最低的損益兩平價格，再加上透過外運能力連結至LNG需求中心的上行曝險，讓Antero在邁向近期LNG專案預期帶來的需求大幅增加之際，具備顯著的競爭優勢。

With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

接下來，我將把電話會議交給接線員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is coming from Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan Chase & Co.

（接線員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase & Co.）的Arun Jayaram。

My first question is related to LPG pricing, perhaps for Dave. Dave, I'm looking at your weekly pricing update that you provided on Monday and it shows kind of your mix between Mont Belvieu and global pricing being about a 50-50 mix. Given strength in the international market, are you -- do you have any flexibility to increase, call it, your leverage, just given the strong export trends? And if so, can you maybe quantify what that could mean for your realizations?

我的第一個問題與LPG定價有關，可能想請Dave回答。Dave，我在看你週一提供的每週價格更新，顯示你在Mont Belvieu與全球定價之間的組合大約是50/50。鑑於國際市場走強，你們是否——在強勁出口趨勢下——有彈性提高（可以說）你們的槓桿/曝險？如果可以，能否量化一下這對你們的實現價格可能意味著什麼？

Yes. So we -- when we talk about that exposure, it's really on the overall C3+ barrel. I think we've talked about it in prior calls. There's times even in the summer where we're exporting 85%, 90% of our propane, so we do utilize that flexibility that we have with our marketing plan to do that. But no, I mean other than that, the isobutane, the pentanes, we're not exporting those products. So that's always going to stay in the domestic pool, which is why you're going to see that 50-50 relationship that you're talking about.

是的。所以我們——當我們談到那個曝險時，主要是針對整體C3+桶（barrel）。我想我們在先前的電話會議中也談過。有些時候甚至在夏季，我們會出口85%、90%的丙烷，因此我們確實會運用行銷計畫所具備的彈性來做到這點。但除此之外，像異丁烷、戊烷（pentanes）這些產品我們並不出口。所以它們會一直留在國內市場池（domestic pool），這也是為什麼你會看到你所提到的那種50/50關係。

And then just looking at the last pricing update, there was about a $0.04 to $0.05 per gallon delta between propane -- between international and Mont Belvieu. How much of the international realizations are impacted by net shipping costs? And as those net shipping costs as you show normalize, what kind of uplift could that provide?

再看最新一次的價格更新，丙烷——國際與Mont Belvieu之間——每加侖大約有0.04到0.05美元的價差。國際實現價格有多少會受到扣除運輸成本後（net shipping costs）的影響？而當你們所展示的淨運費回歸正常化時，可能帶來什麼樣的上行提升？

Yes. So quite a bit. I mean we've seen that -- this year recently, you've seen that the Baltic rates collapsed pretty dramatically. And so we benefited from that. I think you've seen propanes today, this morning, trading, balance of month, $0.94 a gallon. So a lot of that has been driven by the fact that the freight costs have decreased. If you look at destination pricing in Asia, you're not seeing propane price at strong levels this winter relative to naphtha. It's actually similar pricing to what we would see in the summertime. So the run-up in Mont Belvieu pricing has been really driven by the collapsing freight rates that have allowed Belvieu to rise.

是的，影響相當大。我的意思是，我們看到——今年近期你已經看到波羅的海運價（Baltic rates）大幅崩跌，因此我們從中受益。我想你也看到今天、今天早上，丙烷當月餘期（balance of month）交易價格約為每加侖0.94美元。這其中很大一部分是因為運費成本下降所驅動。若你看亞洲目的地價格，這個冬天相對於石腦油（naphtha），你並沒有看到丙烷價格處在很強的水準；實際上其定價更接近我們在夏季會看到的水準。因此，Mont Belvieu價格的上漲，主要是由於運費崩跌，使得Belvieu得以上升。

The other piece, I think, that we see with our portfolio is the Gulf Coast stocks, as we've talked about, are very highly utilized. And so as you move into the spring and summer season, domestic demand wanes. We think you'll see more pressure to try and export out of those facilities. And until they expand in 2025, that will be limited. And so that value premium that you get at the dock will rise and our ability to access that directly with our firm capacity out of Marcus Hook, we'll be able to take advantage of that more as well. So kind of 2 things working in our favor, the ability to get to the waterborne price, not just somewhat landlocked at Mont Belvieu as other producers are, and then the improved freight dynamics have allowed us to benefit more than others.

另外一個部分，我想我們在投資組合中看到的是，正如我們談過的，墨西哥灣沿岸庫存（Gulf Coast stocks）的使用率非常高。因此當進入春夏季節、國內需求轉弱時，我們認為你會看到更大的壓力，試圖從那些設施增加出口。而在2025年擴建之前，這會受到限制。因此，你在碼頭（dock）所獲得的價值溢價會上升，而我們透過Marcus Hook的確定性產能（firm capacity）直接取得該溢價的能力，也將能更充分加以利用。所以大致有兩件事對我們有利：其一是能取得水運價格（waterborne price），而不只是像其他生產商那樣在Mont Belvieu某種程度上受限於內陸；其二是改善的運費動態讓我們比其他人受益更多。

Okay. And I have a one quick one for Justin. Justin, if the momentum pipeline is delayed by -- given some of the issues in terms of timing there, what kind of impact do you see to Tier 1 pricing in that Louisiana LNG corridor?

好的。我還有一個很快的問題想問Justin。Justin，如果Momentum管線因為時程方面的一些問題而延遲，對路易斯安那LNG走廊的Tier 1定價，你認為會有什麼影響？

Arun, once we start seeing the Plaquemine facility, once they start to introduce gas sometime later in this year, we would expect to see that forward basis continue to increase, keeping an eye on A&R Southeast basis. Right now, it's showing a positive versus Henry and it can range anywhere from $0.07 to $0.09 over at the moment. And any of those delays that are going to bring less gas down to that Henry Hub region, we would just expect to see that base has continued to increase as more competition enters into the market with Golden Pass and Plaquemine coming on.

Arun，一旦我們開始看到Plaquemine設施在今年稍晚某個時間開始導入天然氣，我們預期遠期基差（forward basis）會持續走高，同時也會關注A&R Southeast基差。目前它相對Henry Hub呈現正價差，眼下大約在高出0.07到0.09美元之間。任何會使得流向Henry Hub區域的天然氣減少的延遲，我們都會預期該基差將持續上升，因為隨著Golden Pass與Plaquemine投產，更多競爭將進入市場。

Our next question today is coming from Bertrand Donnes from Truist Securities.

我們今天的下一個問題來自Truist Securities的Bertrand Donnes。

On Slide 12, you outlined your low-cost inventory. And I'd say a while ago, 15 years of inventory was enough, maybe it moved to 10 at one point. But when you're sitting at 22 years, you could split the company into half and still not be in the running out of inventory group. So the natural question would be, is there some interest in maybe divesting some of the inventory that's at the end of the stack. And then just a broader question is, can you really get 2 parties to come to the table in this current gas price contango? Or does 1 party just simply refuse to look to the outer years?

在第12頁投影片，你們概述了低成本庫存。我會說在一段時間以前，15年的庫存就已足夠，可能某個時候變成10年。但當你們坐擁22年時，你甚至可以把公司一分為二，仍然不會落入「庫存即將用盡」那一群。所以很自然的問題是，你們是否有興趣出售一些位於庫存堆疊末端的庫存？另外一個更廣泛的問題是，在目前天然氣價格呈現正價差結構（contango）的情況下，你們真的能讓兩方坐到談判桌前嗎？還是其中一方乾脆拒絕去看更遠期的年度？

Well, the first one, no, we are a consolidator of the liquids fairway of West Virginia. In that 22 years, About half of it is liquids. The other half is our dry gas option, which is on the eastern side of our field. So that provides a good dry gas option, it allows us flexibility to toggle between liquids and dry gas. Liquids is obviously very accretive today. I think we get over $1.10 uplift. from the liquids compared to the Henry Hub price. So we've been focused on that. So we want to continue to consolidate that. And with our scale and the liquids midstream we own and the transport, the barriers to entry are very high. So no one really could develop that outside of having those attributes. So we continue to consolidate and look to own more and more of the inventory.

嗯，第一個問題，沒有，我們是西維吉尼亞液體走廊的整併者。在這22年中，大約一半是液體；另一半是我們的乾氣選項，位於我們區塊的東側。因此這提供了一個良好的乾氣選項，讓我們能在液體與乾氣之間彈性切換。液體在今天顯然非常具增益性（accretive）。我想相較於Henry Hub價格，我們可獲得超過1.10美元的增益（uplift）。所以我們一直聚焦在這上面。因此我們希望持續整併該區域。而以我們的規模、我們所擁有的液體中游資產與運輸能力，進入門檻非常高。所以若沒有這些特質，基本上沒有人能在那裡進行開發。因此我們會持續整併，並希望擁有越來越多的庫存。

And on your second question, I really didn't quite understand that. On the contango of natural gas, we're really -- let's say, more looking at the liquids prices driving the economics. So that's, we look more to the liquids than the gas.

至於你的第二個問題，我其實沒有完全理解。關於天然氣的正價差（contango），我們其實——可以說——更著眼於液體價格對經濟性的驅動。因此，我們更看重液體而不是天然氣。

Yes. Sorry, I was just wondering, in any negotiations you're doing, maybe even on the acquiring side, are both parties able to kind of agree on the higher gas price in the future? Or does the buyer always say, I see only the near-term lower price, and I won't give you value for the outer years.

是的。抱歉，我只是想問，在你們進行的任何談判中，甚至可能在收購端，雙方是否能在某種程度上就未來更高的天然氣價格達成共識？還是買方總是說，我只看到近期較低的價格，我不會為更遠期的年份給你估值？

Yes. We really haven't been in any discussions. We're focused on our organic leasing. That's where we add the most value. As I mentioned, it's less than $1 million per location. In M&A, it's over $2 million per location. So you're not really in those type of negotiations when you're doing the brick-by-brick, ground game of organic leasing, you're just dealing with leaseholders that enjoy that you develop their minerals.

是的。我們其實沒有在進行任何相關討論。我們專注於自有的有機租賃（organic leasing）。那是我們能創造最大價值的地方。如我提到的，每個井位成本不到100萬美元。在併購（M&A）中，每個井位超過200萬美元。所以當你在做這種一塊一塊、貼地作戰的有機租賃時，你其實不會進入那類談判；你只是和樂於你開發其礦權的出租方打交道。

Makes sense. And then the second question is just some of your peers are earmarking a significant amount of capital for infrastructure build-out over the next few years. And I would assume this lower full year '24 guidance doesn't have that much included into it. So could you maybe talk about how you're able to operate efficiently without that kind of overhead that your peers have?

有道理。第二個問題是，你們的一些同業正在為未來幾年的基礎設施擴建預留相當大一筆資本。我猜這個較低的2024全年指引裡面，應該沒有包含太多這類支出。所以你能否談談，你們如何在沒有同業那種間接負擔（overhead）的情況下，仍能高效率運營？

Yes. With Antero Midstream, we own 30% of Antero Midstream. Antero Midstream has built out this largest liquid system in Appalachia and we have all the processing and high pressure and low pressure and then the firm transport connects to that. So we've already made all those investments Antero Midstream has and they are on 30%. But Antero Midstream came out with their capital and their capital is much lower as well because it's just in time really building that last mile of low pressure in water. So we've already made all those midstream investments. It's one of the reasons we're the unconstrained E&P. We don't have midstream constraints and everything is already in the ground.

是的。透過Antero Midstream，我們持有Antero Midstream 30%的股權。Antero Midstream已在阿帕拉契亞建成了最大的液體系統，我們擁有所有的處理能力，以及高壓、低壓系統，並且有確定性運輸（firm transport）與之相連。因此，我們已經完成了所有這些中游投資——Antero Midstream做的那些投資——而我們持有其中30%。但Antero Midstream也公布了他們的資本支出，而且他們的資本也低很多，因為基本上是即時（just in time）建設最後一哩路的低壓與水務系統。所以我們已經把這些中游投資都做完了。這也是我們成為不受限（unconstrained）的E&P的原因之一。我們沒有中游瓶頸，所有設施都已經埋在地下了。

Next question is coming from Jacob Roberts from Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

下一個問題來自Tudor, Pickering, Holt的Jacob Roberts。

We appreciate the pricing outlook you guys have given and baked into the guide. But curious, should the need arise, is there an ability to further reduce activity without running into contract issues or any other commentary on other actions that might be preferred, that could further lower the capital plan for 2024?

我們很感謝你們提供並納入指引的價格展望。不過我想問，如果有需要，是否還有進一步降低作業活動的能力，而不會遇到合約問題？或是對於其他可能更偏好的行動有何看法，這些行動是否能進一步降低2024年的資本計畫？

Yes, of course, when we construct the capital plan, the first filter is always to generate free cash flow. So we're very focused on that. We're down to 2 rigs from 3 rigs. We stacked 1 of our rigs. So down to 2-rig program and 1 completion crew. We just released one of our completion crews. We made it a spot crew. That spot crew does have 1 pad that it is scheduled to complete in the third quarter, and that's highly flexible and dependent on liquids prices, also natural gas prices to a bit, but more liquids prices. So we do have the ability to toggle lower. That's about $50 million, call it. So you could definitely toggle lower than that. And at today's gas prices, which is about a $2.25 strip, we're still generating free cash flow. So that's quite amazing. And it's really due to the liquids prices and the capital efficiency, and I mentioned the liquids prices do add about $1.10, $1.15 right now on top of that $2.25, so really driven by the liquids prices. And so we'll continue to monitor those and really focus on generating free cash flow.

是的。當然，當我們制定資本計畫時，第一個篩選條件永遠是要產生自由現金流（free cash flow）。所以我們非常專注於此。我們已從3部鑽機降到2部鑽機，停用（stacked）了其中1部鑽機。所以現在是2鑽機方案與1支完井隊。我們剛釋出其中一支完井隊，改成現貨（spot）隊伍。那支現貨隊確實有1個井場（pad）排程在第三季完井，而這具有高度彈性，取決於液體價格，也在某種程度上取決於天然氣價格，但更主要是液體價格。所以我們確實有能力再往下調，約5,000萬美元左右。你當然可以調得比那更低。而以今天的天然氣價格——大約是2.25美元的遠期曲線（strip）——我們仍在產生自由現金流。這相當驚人。這主要歸功於液體價格與資本效率；我也提到，液體價格目前大約在那個2.25美元之上再增加約1.10到1.15美元，所以真的是由液體價格所驅動。因此我們會持續監控，並且專注於產生自由現金流。

Great. And a second question. We were hoping you could provide some commentary on the potential upside to volumes heading toward the Shell facility. And if that materializes, what it could mean for the product mix as we progress through this year?

很好。第二個問題，我們希望你能就流向Shell設施的潛在增量產量提供一些評論。如果那真的發生，隨著今年推進，對產品組合可能意味著什麼？

Yes. No, we're just assuming flat to last year. I mean our ethane guidance is around 70,000 barrels a day, and that's where we were at last year. That assumes Shell performs like it did last year, which is kind of in the low teens. So not really thinking about increased ethane volumes around that, and it's not material on the pricing. It's a Henry Hub-based price. So it's very similar to what we get if it remains in the stream. So we would have a little bit of a volume tailwind if it performed better than last year, but not baking that in the guidance.

是的。不，我們只是假設與去年持平。我的意思是，我們的乙烷指引大約是每天70,000桶，這與去年差不多。這假設Shell的表現和去年一樣，大概是在十幾（low teens）的水準。所以我們並沒有把乙烷量增加納入考量，而且在定價上也不具重大影響。它是以Henry Hub為基礎的價格。因此，和它留在氣流（stream）中我們所得到的價格非常相近。所以如果它表現比去年更好，我們的量可能會有一點順風（tailwind），但我們沒有把這個納入指引。

Your next question is coming from Roger Read from Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自Wells Fargo的Roger Read。

I'm going to come back to a question I asked in the last call, in the third quarter, and the charts here, Page 3 is probably the best example. Just continued improvements in D&C efficiencies. Looking at your past performances, right, 16 stages in a day or the cycle times reduced to 122 relative to the averages for both, without asking, can you achieve those best case scenarios on a regular basis going forward? What was the difference between, say, the average and the best performance? Is that a seasonal thing? Is it just good luck? I was just curious kind of the difference between the 2 and maybe help us think about how we bridge the gap between those 2 continuing D&C efficiencies.

我想回到我在上一通電話、第三季時問過的一個問題，還有這裡的圖表，第3頁可能是最好的例子。就是D&C效率持續改善。回顧你們過去的表現，例如一天16段（stages），或是週期時間降到122，相較於兩者的平均值。不是要你承諾，但你們未來能否在常態下規律地達到那些最佳情境？平均表現與最佳表現之間的差異是什麼？是季節性因素？還是只是運氣好？我只是好奇兩者的差別，以及或許幫助我們思考，如何在D&C效率持續提升的情況下，縮小這兩者之間的差距。

Yes. No, I mean it's really around pumping hours on the completions. And when we get above 20 hours a day, we generally hit 13, 14 stages. And when you hit the 16, it just (inaudible) the pump maintenance on that day was much lower and your pumping hours were much greater. So that's really where it's at. And what was amazing in '23 as we started consistently hitting the high teens pumping hours and really consistently hitting 12, 13, 14 stages a day, and then you maybe have 1 day where there were some issues, but that would all culminate in an average of 11 stages per day, which compared to our prior average of 8 to 9, and that's what was in the guidance was amazing. And then same thing on the drilling, we are drilling 2,000 feet greater laterals in 2024. So we do think that improves. This already amazing drilling days per 10k improvements. So we have gone from about 7 days per 10k now down to 5 and that's continuing to drill longer and longer laterals and that really helps those averages.

是的。不，我的意思是，這主要與完井的泵送時數（pumping hours）有關。當我們一天超過20小時泵送時，通常能做到13、14段。而當你做到16段時，只是（聽不清）那一天的泵維護（pump maintenance）少很多，泵送時數也高很多。所以關鍵就在這裡。2023年很驚人的是，我們開始穩定地達到十幾個小時的高位泵送時數，並且相當一致地做到每天12、13、14段，然後可能有1天出現一些問題，但最終平均仍能達到每天11段；相較於我們先前平均8到9段，而那就是指引裡的數字，這非常驚人。鑽井方面也是一樣，我們在2024年將鑽2,000英尺更長的水平段（laterals）。所以我們確實認為，這會進一步改善已經很驚人的每10k英尺鑽井天數（drilling days per 10k）表現。我們已從每10k約7天降到5天，而且還在持續鑽更長、更長的水平段，這確實有助於拉升那些平均值。

Yes, it's been amazing what everybody -- who's been able to do the way you all are leading in it, definitely impressive...

是的，大家能做到這樣真的很驚人——你們能以這種方式領先，確實令人印象深刻……

Yes, we're up to -- over 15,000 feet per lateral in 2024, which is by far our highest in the company's history.

是的，我們在2024年每條水平段已提升到——超過15,000英尺，這是公司歷史上迄今最高。

Yes. Yes. Well, one of these days we get gas prices to agree with us on the other side. And along those lines, what is the right way to think about use of cash going forward? Obviously, you should get the balance sheet where you want it this year, if it's not already. Once that's done, dividend, share repo, variable dividend. What is the way you want to think about the return of excess cash going forward?

是的。是的。嗯，希望哪天天然氣價格也能在另一邊跟我們一致。順著這個方向，未來現金使用應該怎麼思考才對？顯然，你們今年應該能把資產負債表調整到你們想要的狀態，如果現在還沒到的話。一旦完成之後，股利、庫藏股回購、變動股利——你們希望如何思考未來超額現金的回饋方式？

Yes. Like we said, first is continue to pay down debt. We paid down debt in the fourth quarter with our free cash flow. We'll do it with our free cash flow in the first quarter as well, get it down to credit facility. At year-end, had close -- I think it was $420 million, $430 million. So that would be the first use of our free cash flow. Then we have 2026 is in the $100 million range -- are all approximate numbers, but also kind of be included in that credit facility amount. So that kind of gets you down to the $1 billion debt level. And then once that's achieved, we said the majority of the free cash flow will go to share buybacks. We tend to favor the share buybacks at these levels -- at these valuations. So that's kind of the order of the free cash flow use, pay down debt for the next $0.5 billion, call it, and then the majority after that goes to share buybacks.

是的。就像我們說的，第一步是持續償還債務。我們在第四季用自由現金流償還了債務；第一季也會用自由現金流來做，把它降到循環信貸（credit facility）。在年底時，該額度下大概接近——我記得是4.2億到4.3億美元。所以這會是我們自由現金流的第一個用途。接著我們在2026年還有大約1億美元的到期——這些都是約略數字——但也會某種程度上包含在那個循環信貸金額裡。這樣大致會把你帶到約10億美元的債務水準。然後一旦達成，我們說過大部分自由現金流將用於股票回購。在目前這些水準——這些估值下——我們傾向偏好股票回購。所以自由現金流使用的順序大概就是：接下來先償還約5億美元的債務，然後之後的大部分用於股票回購。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is coming from Nitin Kumar from Mizuho Securities.

（接線員指示）我們的下一個問題來自瑞穗證券（Mizuho Securities）的 Nitin Kumar。

I guess, certainly appreciate the work that you've done on improving capital efficiencies for 2024. If I could maybe delve into what does 2025 look like, right? So you had pretty strong momentum going into the end of 2023, you're reducing activity. Just trying to understand, without looking for guidance, what would the impact of this decline in activity have on your 2025 trajectory, if any?

我想，確實很感謝你們在提升 2024 年資本效率方面所做的工作。如果我可以再深入一點，想請教 2025 年會是什麼樣子，對吧？你們在 2023 年底之前動能相當強，但你們正在降低活動量。我只是想了解一下，在不尋求指引的前提下，這種活動量下滑若有的話，會對你們 2025 年的發展軌跡造成什麼影響？

Not really any, it's the maintenance capital level. When we think about maintenance capital, it's [3.3] to [3.4]. We obviously outperformed last year with the completion efficiencies and cycle times. We are better than we had forecast. And so now that we've wrapped those efficiencies in our forecast going forward, it's very similar to this year, hold that 3.3 to 3.4 Bcfe per day in the $700 million range-ish.

其實不太會有影響，這就是維持性資本（maintenance capital）的水準。當我們談維持性資本時，大概是 [3.3] 到 [3.4]。我們去年在完井效率與週期時間方面明顯超出預期，表現比我們原先預測的更好。因此，現在我們已把這些效率納入未來的預測中，往前看就跟今年非常相似：把日產量維持在 3.3 到 3.4 Bcfe 左右，資本支出大概在 7 億美元這個區間上下。

Got it. That's helpful. Paul, when you started the company, you certainly targeted the LNG corridor and where we're strategic in sort of signing up for firm transportation to the market. Really good slides on the power gen market here. Any opportunities to link up with those demand centers with long-term contracts that could kind of solidify your realizations?

了解。這很有幫助。Paul，當你們創立公司時，你們確實鎖定 LNG 走廊，並在簽訂通往市場的固定運輸（firm transportation）方面具備策略性。這裡關於發電市場的投影片做得很好。有沒有機會透過長期合約與那些需求中心連結，從而在某種程度上鞏固你們的實現價格（realizations）？

We've looked at those. They come with fairly hefty commitments. We've already made the commitments. And as you know, it's all that firm transport that we control and have for quite some time. So we've kind of achieved those prices through our firm transport commitments and think we will be the beneficiary of those. They will accrue to us. We're all spot pricing, we're not signing up for any Henry Hub type deals long term. We're just going to flow our gas down to this corridor and let people compete for it, and we'll see what the price is, but we think we'll realize a lot of that uplift without having these kind of international linked pricing.

我們有研究過那些機會，但它們通常伴隨相當沉重的承諾。我們其實已經做出了承諾。而且如你所知，我們掌控並持有相當長一段時間的固定運輸能力。所以我們基本上已透過這些固定運輸承諾達成那樣的價格水準，並認為我們會成為受益者，這些效益會歸屬於我們。我們全部採用現貨定價，不會簽任何 Henry Hub 類型的長期合約。我們就是把天然氣輸送到這條走廊，讓大家來競價，我們再看價格會是多少；但我們認為，即使不採用這種與國際連動的定價，我們也能實現相當多的溢價提升。

Our next question is coming from Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Neil Mehta。

Congrats on the improvement in capital efficiency and the guide. Just a macro question. So I guess the first one is on propane. Can you talk a little bit about Slide 5 and what do you think has been the main driver of getting the inventories back to the 5 year. And as we think about propane markets, Asia continues to be really important and sometimes harder for us as an investment community to get visibility out there. So talk about how you think about China and Asia feeds into the propane ounces of 2024.

恭喜你們資本效率的改善以及指引。先問一個總體面的問題。我想第一個是關於丙烷（propane）。你能否談談第 5 張投影片，以及你認為庫存回到 5 年水準的主要驅動因素是什麼？另外，談到丙烷市場，亞洲仍然非常重要，但對我們投資社群而言，有時較難掌握那邊的能見度。請談談你如何看待中國與亞洲對 2024 年丙烷供需（propane ounces of 2024）的影響。

Yes, I think there are a couple of things I'll talk about on the propane inventory level. I mean, one, there was a surprise adjustment from the EIA. They had -- really since mid-November, through, call it, mid-to-late December, they had a calculation error, so they were overstating propane inventories. So we got an initial nice bump there but better late than never and then as we moved into January, we continued to see the exports stay strong all of December and January, and we started to get some cold weather. We maybe had a, call it, 1.5 weeks of cold weather, resulted in some production losses as well at the same time that demand was strong domestically and the export docks weren't affected. So I think that's what you see in that chart there is the December adjustment as well as a couple of good weeks of data in January. And now we're just seeing things trend very much in line with the 5-year average. And so if that continues, we would expect to be, call it, down to the 45 million to, call it, 48 million-barrel range at the end of withdrawal season. So I think that moving from the top of the 5-year range to the 5-year average, I think took the narrative from some of the barrels -- propane stocks were in dire circumstances. We didn't see that ourselves and pleased to see it play out the way that it ultimately did.

好的，我想關於丙烷庫存水準有幾點可以談。第一，EIA 有一次出乎意料的調整。他們從 11 月中旬開始到大約 12 月中下旬之間，計算上有錯誤，所以把丙烷庫存高估了。因此我們一開始看到一個不錯的上修，但遲來總比不來好。接著進入 1 月後，我們持續看到 12 月與 1 月的出口維持強勁，同時也開始出現一些寒冷天氣。我們大概有 1.5 週的寒流，導致同時間也出現一些產量損失；而國內需求強勁、出口碼頭並未受影響。我認為你在那張圖上看到的，就是 12 月的調整，加上 1 月幾週不錯的數據。現在我們看到的趨勢已非常貼近 5 年平均。若這樣的趨勢持續，我們預期在提取季（withdrawal season）結束時，庫存大概會落在 4,500 萬到 4,800 萬桶的區間。我認為，從 5 年區間的上緣回到 5 年平均，讓市場敘事從『某些桶數——丙烷庫存處於非常嚴峻的狀況』轉變過來。我們自己並不認為情況那麼糟，也很高興最終的發展如同現在所呈現的。

On the International question, we used to have a slide in here that talked about propane going to China where it showed absolute demand kind of moving steadily up into the right, but utilization moving lower as they added big chunks of PDH capacity. And that's what we've seen happen. PDH utilization rates are down in the 60% to 65% range. Petchem margins in the East are low, which isn't surprising given all the capacity that has come online. But overall, absolute demand has continued to move up. And so again, we remain optimistic that with that amount of capacity in place, ready to be ramped up, should things improve economically, in particular, in China, they've not had things bounced back post COVID reopening as many of us thought they would. We think there's a lot of upside there, whether or not the U.S. will be able to supply it all instantaneously, I think is a function of if the Gulf Coast stocks can expand in time. We think of that call for demand is here in 2024. They probably won't be able to get all of it from the U.S., but we'll certainly benefit being out of the East Coast with our capacity.

至於國際面的問題，我們以前在這裡放過一張投影片談丙烷流向中國，顯示絕對需求大致穩定向上，但因為新增了大批 PDH 產能，利用率反而下降。而我們確實看到這樣的情況：PDH 利用率降到 60% 到 65% 的區間。東亞的石化（petchem）利差偏低，考量到大量產能上線，這並不令人意外。但整體而言，絕對需求仍持續上升。因此，我們仍然樂觀：在這麼多產能已到位、隨時可拉升的情況下，一旦經濟改善，特別是中國的經濟改善，需求就有很大上行空間。中國在 COVID 解封後的反彈並沒有像我們許多人原先預期的那樣。我們認為 2024 年就會出現這波需求拉動。至於美國是否能立即供應全部需求，我認為取決於墨西哥灣沿岸庫存能否及時擴增。我們認為他們可能無法全部從美國取得，但我們因為具備離開東岸的運能，肯定會受益。

So that's the things we look at the most. There is ResCom demand growing globally. That's certainly stickier, harder to give you visibility on that. It's more -- over time, looking at things coming out of individual countries, talking about initiatives or expansions of import terminals. But the big obvious things have been the Petchem expansions and those are real. They've resulted in higher demand despite the lower utilization rate just because they've turned on so much capacity.

所以這些是我們最關注的因素。全球的住商（ResCom）需求也在成長，但那部分更黏著、也更難給你清楚的能見度。它更像是——隨時間推移，觀察各國釋出的資訊，討論一些倡議或進口終端的擴建。不過最明顯、最重要的仍是石化擴產，而且那是真實發生的。即便利用率較低，因為新增產能開出了這麼多，仍然帶來更高的需求。

Yes. That's really helpful. And then on the dry gas side, recognizing you're more of a liquid story, so you might have the most objective view on this, but we've been really surprised at U.S. production. It's great showing, it's month to date, close to 105 Bcf in the Permian and 2 Bcf in Appalachia. What do you make of that? And do you believe this data and to the extent that U.S. production is surprising the upside, what's driving it? And how does it resolve its side?

好的，這非常有幫助。接著談乾氣（dry gas）這邊。我知道你們比較偏液體的故事，所以你們可能對這件事的看法更客觀，但我們對美國產量感到非常意外。數據顯示表現很強：本月至今，二疊紀（Permian）接近 105 Bcf，阿帕拉契亞（Appalachia）是 2 Bcf。你怎麼看這件事？你相信這些數據嗎？如果美國產量確實意外地偏上行，背後的驅動因素是什麼？又會如何自我修正？

Yes. We haven't surprised -- we had slides out there thinking that after the 9 to 12 months kind of time period from when the rigs really started to drop last May, you'd start to see a response in production that's historically kind of the time frame that's required to work through that high rig count level. You haven't seen that yet. You actually saw the opposite. So that has been surprising to us. We're hoping that it's kind of 1 last push in gas production. You do historically see the rise in Appalachian gas during the winter months because that's when there's demand and then it falls off, kind of heading into the shoulder season. So hopefully, that occurs and then you continue to see lower rig counts in the Permian and oil windows. So hopefully, that had some effect.

是的。我們也感到意外——我們之前做過投影片，認為自從去年 5 月鑽機數（rigs）開始大幅下滑後，大約經過 9 到 12 個月，你就會開始看到產量的回應；歷史上大致需要這樣的時間，才能消化先前高鑽機數所帶來的影響。但你到目前為止還沒看到那樣的回應，反而看到相反的情況，這確實讓我們意外。我們希望這可能是天然氣產量的『最後一波推升』。歷史上你確實會在冬季看到阿帕拉契亞天然氣上升，因為那時有需求，然後在進入淡季（shoulder season）時回落。所以希望這會發生；同時你也會繼續看到二疊紀與油氣窗（oil windows）的鑽機數下降，希望這會產生一些影響。

But that's kind of the question, 105 Bcf market, it's not really a 105 Bcf market. So you'll need to see some shut-ins, either from lower activity levels or -- not shut-ins, lower gas production from lower activity levels or shut-ins during the shoulder season to balance the market. So time will tell whether that 105 Bcf holds.

但這就是問題所在：105 Bcf 的市場，其實並不是一個 105 Bcf 的市場。因此你需要看到一些停產（shut-ins），要嘛來自較低的活動量——或者，不是停產，而是因活動量下降導致天然氣產量下滑，或是在淡季期間出現停產，才能讓市場回到平衡。所以 105 Bcf 是否能維持，還要看時間。

Next question is coming from David Deckelbaum from TD Cowen.

下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 David Deckelbaum。

I just wanted to touch on -- I wanted to just bring up the NGL growth into '24. And obviously, maybe there's some benefits on the ethane side. So I wonder if you could give a little bit of color on just the breakdown of what's driving that NGL growth? Because obviously, you're directing a little bit more activity to the NGL heavy corridor, but you're still -- looks like overall, completing around 10% fewer lateral feet this year. So is this a well-performance situation? Or is this really some of the incremental contribution from the ethane processing side?

我想稍微談一下——我想提出 2024 年的 NGL 成長。很明顯地，乙烷端可能也有一些好處。所以我想請你多分享一些細節：究竟是什麼在推動這個 NGL 成長的拆解？因為顯然你們把更多活動導向 NGL 較重的走廊，但你們仍然——看起來今年整體完井的水平段尺數大約少了 10%。所以這是單井表現更好的情況嗎？還是這其實是乙烷處理端帶來的一些增量貢獻？

No. It's just -- we're really just flat. I mean when you kind of look at it, David, I think we're up 2%. That's just continued focus in the 1,275 to 1,300 Btu corridors that continues to be more and more of our well count (inaudible) in those type of wells.

不是。只是——我們其實基本持平。我的意思是，David，你如果這樣看，我想我們大概是增加了 2%。這只是持續聚焦在 1,275 到 1,300 Btu 的走廊，這些類型的井在我們的井數占比（聽不清）持續越來越高。

Your gas is declining, I mean that's kind of the more of the story is we're allowing our gas to decline 3% but growing the liquids a little bit, that maintenance capital calculation. But you've kind of seen that our last year when we grew in '23, it was really NGL growth. We grew 14% on the liquids and gas was only up 2%. So it's kind of just a natural outcome of really focusing on the 1,300 Btu type liquid wells and just letting the natural gas, the drier areas of our field decline.

你的天然氣在下滑，我的意思是，這才比較是重點：我們讓天然氣下滑 3%，但液體小幅成長，這就是那個維持性資本的計算。但你也看到我們去年在 2023 年成長時，其實主要是 NGL 成長。液體成長 14%，而天然氣只增加 2%。所以這基本上是自然結果：我們真正聚焦在 1,300 Btu 這類液體井，並讓我們區塊中較乾的區域的天然氣自然遞減。

I appreciate that. I guess if there was a scenario where you were to get back to 3 rigs and 2 completion crews at some point in the future, would that inherently lead to just a greater gas mix in the portfolio? Or should we be thinking about the mix that you're looking at in '24 (inaudible).

了解，謝謝。我想如果未來某個時間點你們回到 3 部鑽機與 2 組完井隊的情境，那是否會使投資組合中的天然氣占比自然提高？還是我們應該把你們在 2024 年所看的組合占比視為（聽不清）？

Not initially. We got the liquid inventory, David, for 10 years. After 10 years, yes. It would be dry gas. But for the next 10 years, this is a good kind of mix where we're at. So the 3 rigs, it was kind of similar outcomes to last year where you grow the liquids in probably the double-digit range, but the gas is flat.

一開始不會。David，我們的液體庫存可以支撐 10 年。10 年之後，是的，會是乾氣。但接下來 10 年，我們目前這樣的組合是很好的。所以 3 部鑽機的情況，其結果其實跟去年類似：液體可能以雙位數成長，但天然氣持平。

I appreciate that. And if I could just sneak one in. Just the reduced land budget this year, is that intentional restraint? Or is it just more limited opportunity after you guys were very successful there last year?

了解，謝謝。再讓我插問一個：今年縮減的土地預算，是刻意的節制？還是只是因為你們去年非常成功之後，機會變得比較有限？

No. I mean it's also a result of our completion efficiencies and development of -- when you have less wells that you're drilling each year, that maintenance capital decreases. Like we said, it was down to $50 million this year. And last year, it was at $75 million to $100 million. So you do have a big land component where you're trying for the next 2 years' time, call it, really build up those working interest, build up the NRI, really focusing on that. So when you have less wells in that 2-year period, you have less land.

不是。我的意思是，這也是我們完井效率提升與開發——的結果：當你每年鑽的井變少時，維持性資本就會下降。就像我們說的，今年降到 5,000 萬美元。去年則是 7,500 萬到 1 億美元。所以土地確實有很大一部分，是你在接下來大概 2 年的時間裡，努力把那些工作權益拉高、把 NRI（淨收益權益）拉高，真正聚焦在那上面。因此當你在那 2 年期間井數較少時，土地也就會較少。

And then it's not the -- we are the consolidator of the liquids fairway in West Virginia. So it's very hard for anyone to come in and capture those locations other than us. We have the midstream, like I said, we have -- it's very contiguous. It's small in -- we're just going right next door and leasing these locations. So we're the natural consolidator. So those opportunities aren't less. It's just we have less wells over the next 2 years when you are only running 2 rigs and 1 completion crew.

另外，我們是西維吉尼亞州液體走廊的整合者。所以除了我們之外，其他人很難進來取得那些井位。我們有中游設施，如我所說，我們的——區塊非常連片。規模上也不大——我們就是往隔壁走、把這些井位租下來。所以我們是天然的整合者。因此機會並沒有變少；只是因為未來 2 年你們只跑 2 部鑽機與 1 組完井隊，所以井數較少。

Next question is coming from Kevin MacCurdy from Pickering Energy Partners.

下一個問題來自 Pickering Energy Partners 的 Kevin MacCurdy。

Congratulations on the well-received 2024 guidance. I just have one question, and it's kind of a follow-up to the gas macro question that was asked earlier. In your opinion, how do you think the gas markets get solved? Do you have an opinion of where or who will be shutting in gas production or where the production declines will come from?

恭喜你們 2024 年指引獲得良好回響。我只有一個問題，算是對先前有人問到的天然氣宏觀問題的延伸。以你的看法，天然氣市場會如何被解決？你是否有看法：哪些地方或哪些人會關井（shut in）天然氣產量，或產量下滑會從哪裡來？

It should come from across all natural gas stations because at today's strip, I don't think there's many natural gas plays that are economic. You have to have liquids like we have to make any sort of economics in today's gas price environment. So I would say any basin that doesn't have liquids and also where there's a substantial basis and there's no real takeaway. So that's pretty much all natural gas stations right now probably should have less activity. So I think that will naturally occur because economics at the end of the day, always went out. So I think that will occur.

應該會來自所有天然氣產區，因為以今天的期貨曲線（strip）來看，我不認為有很多天然氣區塊具備經濟性。你必須像我們一樣有液體，才能在今天的氣價環境下做出任何經濟性。所以我會說，任何沒有液體的盆地，以及同時存在顯著基差、且沒有真正外運能力（takeaway）的地方。這幾乎就是目前所有天然氣產區——可能都應該降低活動。我認為這會自然發生，因為歸根結底，經濟性永遠會勝出。所以我認為會發生。

I think the liquids plays will continue to see activity. But if it's a dry natural gas play that's constrained, it's most likely going to have lower activity. And plus, as we go into shoulder season and whatever, you always see kind of economics dictating some shut-ins. So that 105 Bcf although on a spot day to day, seems like it's there. Over time, you'll see some occasional shut-ins or occasional events that will decrease that.

我認為液體型區塊仍會持續看到活動。但如果是受限的乾氣區塊，活動很可能會降低。另外，當我們進入肩季等等，你總會看到經濟性促使一些關井。因此那 105 Bcf 雖然在現貨日對日看起來好像就在那裡，但拉長時間，你會看到一些偶發的關井或偶發事件，會讓它下降。

We reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Brendan for any further closing comments.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把時間交回給 Brendan，請他做任何進一步的結語。

Yes. Thank you for joining us on today's call. Please reach out with any further questions. Thank you.

是的。感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。如有任何進一步問題，請與我們聯繫。謝謝。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。今天的電話會議與網路直播到此結束。您現在可以掛線，祝您有美好的一天。感謝您今天的參與。