Antero Resources Corp (AR) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Antero Resources Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Antero Resources 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce to you, Brendan Krueger, VP of Finance. Thank you, Brendan. You may begin.

現在我很高興向您介紹財務副總裁布倫丹·克魯格 (Brendan Krueger)。謝謝你，布倫丹。你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning. Thank you for joining us for Antero's Second Quarter 2023 Investor Conference Call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operating highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteroresources.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

謝謝。早上好。感謝您參加 Antero 2023 年第二季度投資者電話會議。我們將花幾分鐘時間瀏覽財務和運營亮點，然後我們將進行問答。我還想引導您訪問我們網站的主頁 www.anteroresources.com，我們在該網站上提供了單獨的收益電話演示，並將在今天的電話會議期間進行審查。

Today's call may contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures. Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman, CEO and President; Michael Kennedy, CFO; and Dave Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing and Transportation; and Justin Fowler, Senior Vice President of Natural Gas Marketing.

今天的電話會議可能包含某些非公認會計準則財務指標。請參閱我們的收益新聞稿，了解有關此類措施的重要披露，包括與最具可比性的公認會計原則財務措施的調節。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事長、首席執行官兼總裁 Paul Rady；邁克爾·肯尼迪，首席財務官； Dave Cannelongo，液體營銷和運輸高級副總裁；賈斯汀·福勒 (Justin Fowler)，天然氣營銷高級副總裁。

I will now turn the call over to Paul.

我現在將把電話轉給保羅。

Thank you, Brendan. I'll start my comments on Slide #3, titled Drilling and Completion Efficiencies. After a record-breaking first quarter operationally, the strong momentum continued in the second quarter. Completion stages averaged more than 11 per day in the second quarter, a 40% improvement compared to the 2022 average and over a 90% increase from 2019 levels. Drill Outs which are the process of drilling out the plugs in each stage of the horizontal portion of the well exhibited the same success during the quarter. Drill-outs averaged over 4,000 feet per day during the second quarter, up 9% from the 2022 average and over 50% increase from the 2019 levels.

謝謝你，布倫丹。我將從標題為“鑽井和完井效率”的幻燈片 #3 開始我的評論。在第一季度運營創紀錄之後，第二季度繼續保持強勁勢頭。第二季度平均每天完成階段超過 11 個，與 2022 年平均水平相比提高了 40%，與 2019 年水平相比提高了 90% 以上。鑽出是指在油井水平部分的每個階段鑽出堵塞物的過程，在本季度也取得了同樣的成功。第二季度平均每天鑽探超過 4,000 英尺，比 2022 年平均水平增長 9%，比 2019 年水平增長超過 50%。

Faster drill outs and completion times have resulted in significantly shorter cycle times, as shown on the bottom of the page. Since 2019, our cycle times have decreased by 65% and averaged just 151 days in the second quarter. In June, we had the fastest cycle times in our company history at 129 days. These cycle times reflect the total number of days it takes on average from first spud on a pad to turning the entire pad to sales. As a reminder, we averaged 6 wells per visit per pad. Shorter cycle times mean higher capital efficiency. Highlighting this point, we completed roughly 60% of our 2023 budgeted completion stages during the first 6 months of 2023.

更快的鑽孔和完成時間導致周期時間顯著縮短，如頁面底部所示。自 2019 年以來，我們的周期時間減少了 65%，第二季度平均週期僅為 151 天。 6 月份，我們實現了公司歷史上最快的周期時間，達到 129 天。這些週期時間反映了從墊子上第一次開工到將整個墊子轉成銷售所需的平均總天數。提醒一下，我們平均每個墊每次訪問 6 口井。更短的周期時間意味著更高的資本效率。強調這一點，我們在 2023 年前 6 個月內完成了 2023 年預算完成階段的大約 60%。

Now let's turn to Slide #4, titled Antero Wells continue to outperform peers. In addition to the drilling and completion records, we continue to see increases in well productivity. Chart on this slide highlights well productivity trends versus our peers since 2020. As illustrated on the page, Antero's average cumulative equivalent production per well is 20% higher than the peer average over this time. This differentiates Antero from its peers with many companies having already drilled their best acreage, our long core inventory life continues to deliver stronger results each year.

現在讓我們轉向第四張幻燈片，標題為 Antero Wells 繼續超越同行。除了鑽井和完井記錄外，我們還繼續看到油井產能的提高。本幻燈片上的圖表突出顯示了自 2020 年以來與同行相比的油井生產率趨勢。如頁面所示，Antero 在此期間每口井的平均累計當量產量比同行平均水平高 20%。這使 Antero 與許多同行公司區分開來，許多公司已經鑽探了最佳面積，我們較長的核心庫存壽命每年都繼續帶來更強勁的業績。

Now let's turn to Slide #5. Faster cycle times and improving well performance led to the increase in our 2023 production guidance. This gain in capital efficiencies is highlighted by our 5% total production growth in the second quarter compared to the year ago period. Our production growth was driven by 16% liquids growth, while natural gas was essentially flat year-over-year. These capital efficiency gains also reduce our maintenance capital budget as illustrated in the chart on the right-hand side of the page, we currently expect 10% lower D&C capital in 2024, driven by operational efficiency gains alone. To be clear, the lower capital outlook for 2024, assumes we maintain our increased 2023 production level, the potential for a rollover in service costs suggest that there could be further reductions in next year's capital budget but it's too early to assume that those service costs will come to fruition today.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 #5。更快的周期時間和改善的油井性能導致我們提高了 2023 年的產量指導值。與去年同期相比，我們第二季度的總產量增長了 5%，凸顯了資本效率的提高。我們的產量增長是由 16% 的液體增長推動的，而天然氣同比基本持平。這些資本效率收益還減少了我們的維護資本預算，如頁面右側圖表所示，我們目前預計 2024 年 D&C 資本將減少 10%，這僅是運營效率收益的推動。需要明確的是，假設我們維持 2023 年增加的生產水平，2024 年的資本前景較低，服務成本滾動的可能性表明明年的資本預算可能會進一步減少，但現在假設這些服務成本還為時過早今天將會實現。

Now to touch on the current liquids and NGL fundamentals I'll turn it over to our Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing and Transportation; Dave Cannelongo for his comments.

現在來談談當前的液體和 NGL 基本原理，我將把它交給我們的液體營銷和運輸高級副總裁；戴夫·坎內隆戈 (Dave Cannelongo) 的評論。

Thanks, Paul. While C3+ prices as a percent of WTI are currently low, it is important to remember that the second quarter is historically weak for NGL prices. Moving into the second half of 2023 and further into 2024, we see tailwinds emerging from normal seasonal demand drivers, upside in the Chinese petrochemical market and supply moderation due to rig reductions in liquids-rich basins.

謝謝，保羅。雖然 C3+ 價格佔 WTI 的百分比目前較低，但重要的是要記住，第二季度 NGL 價格歷來疲軟。進入 2023 年下半年和 2024 年，我們看到正常的季節性需求驅動因素、中國石化市場的上漲以及由於富含液體的盆地鑽機減少而導致供應放緩。

Starting with propane. Although absolute propane inventory levels have remained elevated throughout the first half of 2023, days of supply has generally been trending within the 5-year range during the same period. This indicates that the current higher stock levels are to a large degree necessary to support the substantial growth that the U.S. market has experienced primarily in exports, but also domestic petrochemical demand.

從丙烷開始。儘管丙烷絕對庫存水平在 2023 年上半年保持較高水平，但同期供應天數總體趨勢在 5 年範圍內。這表明當前較高的庫存水平在很大程度上是支持美國市場主要出口以及國內石化產品需求大幅增長所必需的。

Turning to propane exports, which are highlighted on Slide #6, we have seen consistent strength throughout 2023, with total U.S. propane exports averaging 1.6 million barrels per day year-to-date. This is 300,000 barrels per day or approximately 25% higher than the same period last year. Propane exports also reached a new record high in the second quarter of 1.9 million barrels per day in late June, according to weekly EIA data. In the domestic market, propane demand should improve in the coming months, from a new propane dehydrogenation or PDH facility that is starting up in the Gulf Coast, followed by seasonal crop drying and heating demand as we move through the remainder of 2023 into 2024.

談到幻燈片#6 中強調的丙烷出口，我們看到 2023 年全年都保持強勁勢頭，年初至今美國丙烷出口總量平均每天 160 萬桶。這相當於每天 30 萬桶，比去年同期高出約 25%。根據每週 EIA 數據，6 月底第二季度丙烷出口量也創下了每日 190 萬桶的新高。在國內市場，隨著墨西哥灣沿岸新的丙烷脫氫或 PDH 設施啟動，丙烷需求將在未來幾個月內有所改善，隨著 2023 年剩餘時間進入 2024 年，季節性作物乾燥和供暖需求也會隨之增加。

Turning to the Chinese market. Although there have been various headwinds to economic recovery post-COVID, we have seen some recent data points showing improvement in the petrochemical sector there. Chinese integrated polypropylene margins from PDH units have shown dramatic improvements year-to-date, increasing from outright negative levels in February to almost $300 per metric ton in May. Unsurprisingly, utilization rates in Chinese PDH units have been closely correlated with this margin improvement.

轉向中國市場。儘管疫情后的經濟復甦面臨各種阻力，但我們看到最近的一些數據點顯示石化行業有所改善。中國 PDH 裝置的綜合聚丙烯利潤今年迄今已顯著改善，從 2 月份的完全負水平上升到 5 月份的每噸近 300 美元。毫不奇怪，中國PDH設備的利用率與利潤率的提高密切相關。

Operating rates have improved from the low (inaudible) during the first quarter, as shown on Slide #7, reaching a year-to-date high of 69% in June 2023, which was the highest rate observed in over a year on the back of higher overall PDH capacity from new facility commissioning during that timeframe. We believe the rapid uptick observed in PDH utilization in recent months in response to margin improvement highlights the value of having spare petrochemical capacity already in place when demand recovery occurs. This is something that we have talked about in previous quarters as well and is a bullish factor over the long-term as the property sector improves in China and worldwide.

如幻燈片 #7 所示，第一季度的運營率已從低點（聽不清）有所改善，並於 2023 年 6 月達到 69% 的年初至今高點，這是一年多以來觀察到的最高運營率在此期間新設施的調試帶來了更高的整體 PDH 容量。我們認為，近幾個月來，隨著利潤率的提高，PDH 利用率迅速上升，凸顯了需求復蘇時現有石化閒置產能的價值。這也是我們在前幾個季度討論過的事情，隨著中國和全球房地產行業的改善，從長遠來看這是一個看漲因素。

Turning to supply. There has been a lot of attention on the rig reductions in gas-focused basins but also wanted to highlight the rig reductions we have seen this year in liquids-focused regions. Slide #8, titled rig counts dropping in key liquids basins shows the rig count changes since the beginning of 2023 for the total U.S. and for several key liquids-rich basins. We are showing both the outright rig decrease and the reduction on a percentage basis to illustrate the magnitude of the impact in each region.

轉向供應。人們對以天然氣為主的盆地的鑽機減少給予了很多關注，但也想強調今年在以液體為主的地區看到的鑽機減少。幻燈片 #8（標題為關鍵液體盆地鑽機數量下降）顯示了自 2023 年初以來整個美國和幾個主要液體豐富盆地的鑽機數量變化。我們顯示了鑽機直接減少和百分比減少，以說明每個地區的影響程度。

There have been substantial year-to-date [rig] declines in the Eagle Ford, which is down 26%, the SCOOP/STACK, which is down 30% and the Bakken, which has dropped 20%. So while the U.S. C3+ supply is still growing overall, which we believe is ultimately needed to supply the global market, the rate of growth has been tempered by this drilling slowdown. This trend presents upside for C3+ pricing as we look ahead in 2024 and beyond as the effect of the rig count reductions play out.

今年迄今為止，Eagle Ford 鑽機大幅下降，下降了 26%，SCOOP/STACK 下降了 30%，Bakken 下降了 20%。因此，雖然美國 C3+ 供應總體仍在增長（我們認為最終需要供應全球市場），但增長速度因鑽探放緩而受到抑制。展望 2024 年及以後，隨著鑽機數量減少的影響逐漸顯現，這一趨勢為 C3+ 定價帶來了上漲空間。

With that, I will turn it over to Justin Fowler, Senior Vice President of Natural Gas Marketing.

接下來，我會將其交給天然氣營銷高級副總裁賈斯汀·福勒 (Justin Fowler)。

Thanks, Dave. I'll start with comments on the natural gas macro. Turning to Slide #9, titled Peer-leading exposure to premium markets. As a reminder, we sell substantially all of our natural gas out of basin, including approximately 75% to the LNG corridor. Our firm transportation portfolio provides us with direct exposure to the growing LNG demand along the Gulf Coast. This slide illustrates average basis differentials for 2024 through 2027.

謝謝，戴夫。我將從對天然氣宏觀的評論開始。轉向幻燈片 #9，標題為同行領先的高端市場敞口。謹此提醒，我們幾乎將所有天然氣出售到盆地外，其中約 75% 出售給液化天然氣走廊。我們堅定的運輸投資組合使我們能夠直接接觸墨西哥灣沿岸不斷增長的液化天然氣需求。該幻燈片展示了 2024 年至 2027 年的平均基差。

Premiums to NYMEX Henry Hub that we realized our firm transportation have improved since the beginning of the year. In particular, you can see TGP 500 pricing relative to Henry Hub has increased by $0.15 year-to-date. This increase reflects the anticipation start-up of the Plaquemine LNG facility in 2024, which TGP feeds directly into. Antero has significant exposure to this premium market with the nearly 600 MMcf a day of capacity on that pipeline. Meanwhile, on a local basis, where the majority of our peers have significant exposure remains at a steep discount to NYMEX Henry Hub through 2027 despite the recent approval of the MVP pipeline. Next, let's discuss the industry response to lower natural gas prices.

NYMEX 亨利中心的溢價是，我們意識到自今年年初以來我們的公司運輸已經有所改善。特別是，您可以看到 TGP 500 的定價相對於 Henry Hub 今年迄今已上漲了 0.15 美元。這一增長反映了 Plaquemine 液化天然氣設施預計將於 2024 年啟動，TGP 直接向該設施供氣。 Antero 在這一高端市場佔有重要地位，該管道每天的產能接近 600 MMcf。與此同時，在本地基礎上，儘管 MVP 管道最近獲得批准，但到 2027 年，我們的大多數同行擁有大量敞口，但仍比 NYMEX Henry Hub 大幅折扣。接下來，我們來討論一下行業對天然氣價格下降的反應。

Slide #10, depicts the historical relationship between NYMEX natural gas prices and the rig count in the Haynesville. We discussed this slide on our fourth quarter 2022 conference call back in February. At that time, the Haynesville rig count was 73 rigs. Based on the historical response by producers in that basin, when NYMEX prices fell below $3, we communicated an expectation that rigs would fall by at least 25 to 30 rigs. As it stands today, the Haynesville rig count has declined by 38% or 25 rigs from peak levels. This point is driven home further when looking at the reduction in completion crews in the Haynesville, which is shown on Slide 11.

幻燈片 #10 描述了 NYMEX 天然氣價格與 Haynesville 鑽機數量之間的歷史關係。我們在 2 月份的 2022 年第四季度電話會議上討論了這張幻燈片。當時，Haynesville 的鑽機數量為 73 台。根據該盆地生產商的歷史反應，當 NYMEX 價格跌破 3 美元時，我們預計鑽機數量將減少至少 25 至 30 台。就目前情況而言，海恩斯維爾的鑽機數量已較峰值水平減少了 38%，即 25 台。當查看幻燈片 11 中顯示的 Haynesville 完工人員的減少情況時，這一點得到了進一步的體現。

Since the beginning of the year, the completion crew count has declined by 36% from 28 to 18 crews. While the decrease in drilling rigs will have a downward impact on 2024 supply, this reduction in completion crews will have a more immediate impact on supply this year. The sharp decline in drilling rigs and completion crews combined with the basin's steep decline profile is expected to help balance the U.S. natural gas market and provide support to gas prices. In addition to a moderated supply outlook, demand trends continue to shift toward natural gas.

自今年年初以來，竣工人員數量已從 28 人減少到 18 人，減少了 36%。雖然鑽機的減少將對 2024 年的供應產生下行影響，但完井人員的減少將對今年的供應產生更直接的影響。鑽機和完井人員的急劇減少加上該盆地的急劇下降預計將有助於平衡美國天然氣市場並為天然氣價格提供支撐。除了供應前景溫和外，需求趨勢繼續轉向天然氣。

Let's turn to Slide #12, titled Power Burn Demand Growth. This chart shows that natural gas power burn demand has increased every year for 10 consecutive years. 2023 looks likely to set new record highs. Despite the warmer than usual winter that led to softer demand to start the year off, 2023 power burn is averaging 3.3 Bcf a day or 14% higher than the 5-year average. This July is forecasted to average over 46 Bcf per day, which was set a new monthly record. In fact, just yesterday, we hit a new daily power burn record of over 51 Bcf.

讓我們轉向幻燈片 #12，標題為“功率消耗需求增長”。該圖顯示，天然氣發電需求連續10年逐年增長。 2023 年看起來可能會創下新高。儘管冬季比平常溫暖，導致年初需求疲軟，但 2023 年的電力消耗平均每天為 3.3 Bcf，比 5 年平均水平高出 14%。今年 7 月預計平均每天超過 46 Bcf，創下月度新紀錄。事實上，就在昨天，我們創下了超過 51 Bcf 的每日耗電量新紀錄。

With that, I will turn it over to Mike Kennedy, Antero's CFO.

接下來，我會將其交給 Antero 首席財務官 Mike Kennedy。

Thanks, Justin. I'll be brief in my comments today. But I want to re-emphasize the points that Paul made earlier on Antero's peer-leading capital efficiency. Slide #13, highlights the results of our peer group under each company's maintenance capital program. By definition, higher capital efficiency must drive either higher production volumes for the same capital or lower capital with the same production volume, while attempting to target a maintenance capital program, Antero's volumes actually grew 5% compared to the year ago period. Conversely, when our peer group attempted to target a maintenance capital program, their volumes actually declined by 4% year-over-year. This is shown in the chart at the top of the slide. The chart at the bottom of the slide compares the peer group's capital required per Mcfe of production.

謝謝，賈斯汀。我今天的評論將很簡短。但我想再次強調保羅早些時候就 Antero 領先同行的資本效率提出的觀點。第 13 張幻燈片重點介紹了我們同行組在每家公司的維護資本計劃下的結果。根據定義，更高的資本效率必須推動相同資本下更高的產量，或者相同產量下更低的資本，在嘗試以維護資本計劃為目標時，Antero 的產量實際上比去年同期增長了 5%。相反，當我們的同行嘗試制定維護資本計劃時，其數量實際上同比下降了 4%。這顯示在幻燈片頂部的圖表中。幻燈片底部的圖表比較了同行組每 Mcfe 生產所需的資本。

As a rule of thumb, internally, we view each $100 million change of capital to result in approximately [100 million] a day change in production, both up and down. Over the last year, we grew nearly $175 million a day, which implies that our capital efficiency gains have reduced true maintenance capital by roughly $175 million, all else equal. Adjusted for this volume growth Antero would have the lowest CapEx per Mcfe of its peer group at just $0.66 per Mcfe. Against the peer group averages, Antero's capital program is significantly more efficient, 40% below our natural gas peers.

根據經驗，在內部，我們認為每 1 億美元的資本變化都會導致每天大約 [1 億] 的產量變化，無論是上升還是下降。去年，我們每天增長近 1.75 億美元，這意味著在其他條件相同的情況下，我們的資本效率收益使真正的維護資本減少了約 1.75 億美元。根據銷量增長進行調整後，Antero 的每 Mcfe 資本支出將是同行中最低的，僅為每 Mcfe 0.66 美元。與同行平均水平相比，Antero 的資本計劃效率明顯更高，比天然氣同行低 40%。

Looking ahead, we expect to maintain 2024 production at our raised production guidance levels on a capital program that we expect to be at least 10% lower than 2023, with all of the lower capital amount due to our capital efficiency. This raised production guidance also continues to assume a more conservative ethane outlook as we risk the timing of the Shell ethane Cracker startup. Lower capital, combined with the higher natural gas strip leads to substantial free cash flow in 2024 and beyond. At the same time, we remain committed to our return of capital policy, which targets returning 50% of our free cash flow to shareholders.

展望未來，我們預計將在資本計劃下將 2024 年產量維持在提高的生產指導水平，預計該資本計劃將比 2023 年至少降低 10%，所有資本金額較低都是由於我們的資本效率所致。由於我們冒著殼牌乙烷裂解裝置啟動時間的風險，此次上調的產量指引也繼續假設乙烷前景更為保守。較低的資本，加上較高的天然氣帶，將在 2024 年及以後帶來大量的自由現金流。與此同時，我們仍然致力於資本回報政策，目標是將 50% 的自由現金流返還給股東。

With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

現在，我將把電話轉給接線員詢問問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Arun Jayaram 線路。

Yes. My first question is for Dave. Dave, you highlighted just the bullish export trends on propane. And I was wondering if you could give us some thoughts on what do you think has been driving the higher inventory levels? And just thoughts on how you see inventories potentially normalizing on the propane side as we move into winter?

是的。我的第一個問題是問戴夫的。戴夫，您強調了丙烷的看漲出口趨勢。我想知道您是否可以給我們一些想法，您認為是什麼推動了庫存水平的上升？想想當我們進入冬季時，您如何看待丙烷方面的庫存可能正常化？

Well, I think the main thing was really the mild winter we had. I think we talked about that maybe on a prior call that, that, coupled with some petrochemical maintenance during the winter time, added roughly 20 million, 21 million barrels to the absolute inventory level. So if you strip that out, we're down in close to the middle of the 5-year range, obviously, even at a lower level on a days of supply basis. So that's been the main driver that I would say play a role there. And then the other piece on the exports, I think we just continue to see strong buying demand, the [arcs] are open, using a lot of the ships that are coming online, but there's still roughly 26 vessels yet to come online this year through the remainder. So that will continue to drive freight costs down even though we have this much higher export stack and see some tailwinds there for us as well.

嗯，我認為最主要的是我們度過了溫和的冬天。我想我們可能在之前的電話會議上討論過這一點，再加上冬季的一些石化維護，絕對庫存水平增加了大約 2000 萬桶、2100 萬桶。因此，如果剔除這一點，我們的價格顯然已接近 5 年區間的中間水平，即使按供應天數計算仍處於較低水平。所以這是我認為在那裡發揮作用的主要驅動力。然後是關於出口的另一部分，我認為我們繼續看到強勁的購買需求，[弧線]是開放的，使用了大量即將上線的船舶，但今年仍有大約 26 艘船舶尚未上線通過剩餘部分。因此，儘管我們的出口量要高得多，並且我們也看到了一些順風車，但這將繼續推動貨運成本下降。

Great. And my follow-up, maybe for Mike. I wanted to get your thoughts on hedging strategy. It seems like Mike, we're in an environment where the market is quite constructive on 2025 gas prices, just given the LNG incremental export demand and maybe investors are appreciating it if some of the gas producers can add some insurance in 2024. Just to get -- call it a floor on your cash flows for '24. So I want to get thoughts on hedging strategy? And could we see Antero looking to add some hedges just given the improvement in strip pricing over the last few weeks?

偉大的。我的後續行動可能是針對邁克的。我想了解您對對沖策略的想法。邁克看來，我們所處的環境是，市場對 2025 年天然氣價格相當有建設性，考慮到液化天然氣出口需求的增量，如果一些天然氣生產商能夠在 2024 年增加一些保險，也許投資者會很感激。得到——稱之為24年現金流的下限。所以我想了解對沖策略的想法？鑑於過去幾週帶鋼定價的改善，我們是否會看到 Antero 尋求增加一些對沖？

Yes. Thanks, Arun, Paul here. Well, as you're saying, we too are positive on the natural gas market. There's positive momentum, as you know, in the futures prices (inaudible) '24 is above 350, '25 and '26 are approaching $4. So pretty healthy. But the other factors we see that give us a little bit of tailwind is that as we've covered here, rig counts, completion crew counts are declining and obviously, that lowers supply. We're all following -- we as an industry are following LNG, the build-outs, the increased demand, people signing up for more and more LNG facilities. And that's happening right now, where more and more facilities will go FID.

是的。謝謝，阿倫，保羅。嗯，正如你所說，我們也對天然氣市場持樂觀態度。如您所知，期貨價格（聽不清）存在積極勢頭，'24 高於 350，'25 和 '26 接近 4 美元。非常健康。但我們看到的其他給我們帶來一點順風的因素是，正如我們在這裡所討論的，鑽機數量、完井人員數量正在下降，顯然，這減少了供應。我們都在關注——作為一個行業，我們正在關注液化天然氣、擴建、需求增加、人們簽約越來越多的液化天然氣設施。現在這種情況正在發生，越來越多的設施將進行最終投資決定。

And then we touched on just the yesterday's record power burn, but the -- systematically, we're seeing higher power burns setting new records such as yesterday's 51 Bcf. So -- as you're aware, Antero is in good shape, have a strong balance sheet. Our leverage is less than 1x. So we're being patient and watching the market and its tailwinds. And we've hedged, of course, years ago and had success at it, but we worked pretty carefully and bide our time. So that's where we are.

然後我們只談到了昨天創紀錄的功率消耗，但是——系統地，我們看到更高的功率消耗創造了新的記錄，例如昨天的 51 Bcf。所以，正如你所知，Antero 狀況良好，資產負債表強勁。我們的槓桿不到1倍。因此，我們正在耐心觀察市場及其順勢。當然，幾年前我們就進行了對沖，並取得了成功，但我們工作得非常謹慎，等待時機。這就是我們現在的情況。

The next question comes from the line of Bertrand Donnes with Truist.

下一個問題來自 Bertrand Donnes 與 Truist 的對話。

On the capital program on the 2024 comments, in the prepared remarks, you noted that you could see additional drops if maybe service costs come down from here. Could you maybe just touch on what the 10% drop includes? Does it use kind of a full year '23 average and then applies it to '24. Is it maybe what you're expecting for the end of the year and then dragging that forward? And then -- just want to give you a chance 1 of your peers is starting to talk about '25. So is there anything that would prevent you from maybe holding that 10% drop into '25 or what it looks like out there?

關於 2024 年評論的資本計劃，在準備好的評論中，您指出，如果服務成本從這裡下降，您可能會看到進一步的下降。您能否簡單談談 10% 的下降包括哪些內容？它是否使用 23 年全年平均值，然後將其應用於 24 年。這可能是您對今年年底的預期，然後將其推遲嗎？然後——只是想給你一個機會，你的一位同事開始談論“25”。那麼，是否有什麼因素會阻止您在 25 年或其他情況下保持 10% 的下降呢？

Yes. So just holding today's cost in the '24 flat, no service cost or -- reductions are incorporated in that. It's because of our capital efficiency and the well productivity, and we grew 5% year-over-year. It's actually maintained that you need about 100,000 less lateral feet. And so when you do the math on that, that's the 10% reduction just at today's costs. So '24 is down that 10% without any service cost help. '25 is actually lower than '24 because as we continue to be at maintenance capital, our declines -- our natural declines continue to decline as well as you add more and more base and get little less steep production and [less wedge]. So '25 was below '24 right now. So extremely capital-efficient program continues to improve. And you can see that in our production growth at the same capital, and you'll see it in '24 and '25 with lower capital amount.

是的。因此，只需將今天的成本保持在 24 小時不變，沒有服務成本或 - 減少包含在其中。這是因為我們的資本效率和良好的生產力，我們同比增長了 5%。實際上，人們認為您需要減少大約 100,000 個側腳。因此，當您對此進行計算時，您會發現，按今天的成本計算，減少了 10%。因此，'24 下降了 10%，而沒有任何服務成本幫助。 '25實際上低於'24，因為當我們繼續處於維護資本時，我們的下降——我們的自然下降繼續下降，並且你增加了越來越多的基數，並且得到的陡峭產量和[更少的楔形]。所以現在 25 號低於 24 號。因此，資本效率極高的計劃不斷得到改進。你可以看到我們在相同資本下的產量增長，你會在 24 年和 25 年以較低的資本金額看到它。

That's great. And then just second one is maybe to talk about your potential LNG strategy. Does a tolling agreement make sense for Antero? Or are you seeing anything -- any other structures that maybe would work best for your approach to maybe capture some of the international pricing?

那太棒了。第二個可能是談論您潛在的液化天然氣戰略。收費協議對 Antero 有意義嗎？或者您是否看到任何其他結構可能最適合您的方法，以捕獲一些國際定價？

Yes. We have 75% of our production that goes to the LNG corridor. So we have so much exposure to that pricing down there and they're such a large market player in order to attract our gas just even on a spot basis, really is going to be a lot of competition and really going to result in a pretty significant premium, we think, the pricing. So that's our exposure (inaudible) to these -- we, of course, evaluate all agreements, but you're talking really small volumes and really big commitments. I think that 1 million tons is about a $2 billion commitment over the timeframe, and that's for like [100 million] a day. So we don't have to make those commitments. We already have all the transport and all the production that gets down to the Gulf. So we'll get exposure to sort of spot pricing and then having to compete to buy our gas.

是的。我們 75% 的產量都輸送到了液化天然氣走廊。因此，我們對那裡的定價有很大的了解，而且他們是一個如此大的市場參與者，為了吸引我們的天然氣，即使是在現貨基礎上，確實會存在很多競爭，並且確實會產生相當大的價格。我們認為，定價存在顯著溢價。這就是我們對這些協議的接觸（聽不清）——當然，我們會評估所有協議，但你說的是非常小的數量和非常大的承諾。我認為 100 萬噸大約是在一段時間內承諾的 20 億美元，相當於每天 [1 億]。所以我們不必做出這些承諾。我們已經擁有了通往海灣的所有運輸和所有生產設施。因此，我們將接觸到某種現貨定價，然後必須競爭購買我們的天然氣。

Our next question comes from the line of David Deckelbaum with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 David Deckelbaum 和 TD Cowen 的對話。

Mike, I think this first one is for you. I just wanted to dig in a little bit on just the CapEx progression into '24. I think we all understand you're not including cost deflation. But can you characterize a bit maybe, obviously, you were employing a maintenance program, but you grew 5% this year. Some of those benefits, I guess, help in '24. But -- can you kind of put some bookends around how many wells you have to do in '24 versus '23 and how you think about sort of the well productivity gains for Antero itself in '23 versus '22?

邁克，我想這第一個是給你的。我只是想深入了解 24 年的資本支出進展情況。我想我們都明白你沒有包括成本通貨緊縮。但您能否描述一下，很明顯，您正在採用維護計劃，但今年您增長了 5%。我想，其中一些好處對 24 年會有幫助。但是，您能否列出一些關於 24 年與 23 年需要打多少口井的書擋，以及您如何看待 Antero 本身在 23 年與 22 年的油井生產率增益？

Yes. So David, I mentioned it's lateral feet really because wells -- our wells continue to lighten in laterals. So we'll have a bit longer in '24 than we did in '23, pretty much every year to go a tad longer. So that's why I mentioned or referenced to 100,000 feet. So we'll have to do 100,000 feet less than we did this year to maintain that around the 3.4 Bcfe level. And so when you just do our well cost on that 100,000 feet, that's how you get the [$90 million] less of capital required to maintain. It's maintaining the same productivity, although our wells continue to be more productive. Right now, we're just elevating the shape of the curve and the front end and have not increased the EURs, but that could come later as the well productivity performance continues to be ahead of our expectations.

是的。所以大衛，我提到它是側腳，實際上是因為井——我們的井在側邊繼續變輕。所以我們24年的時間會比23年長一點，幾乎每年都會長一點。這就是為什麼我提到或提到 100,000 英尺。因此，我們必須比今年減少 100,000 英尺才能將其保持在 3.4 Bcfe 水平左右。因此，當您僅計算這 100,000 英尺的油井成本時，您就可以減少維護所需的 [9000 萬美元] 資金。儘管我們的油井生產力繼續提高，但生產力仍保持不變。目前，我們只是提高了曲線和前端的形狀，並沒有增加歐元，但這可能會稍後發生，因為油井生產力表現繼續超出我們的預期。

Is that front ends being influenced by [choke] management changes or completion designs? Or is that just geology?

前端是否受到[窒息]管理變更或竣工設計的影響？或者這只是地質學？

I think we're being conservative in our not applying that throughout the curve and the life of the well and just trying to wait and take a wait-and-see approach and see that continues throughout time.

我認為我們是保守的，沒有在整個曲線和油井的生命週期中應用這一點，只是試圖等待並採取觀望的態度，看看這種情況會隨著時間的推移而持續。

Appreciate that. And just a follow-up on -- you talked about free cash flow generation, especially in '24 as the curve inflects higher. But I think the last update we all had from you around cash taxes we had you kind of paying some cash taxes this year and that number going higher. Can you give us an update on what you think your cash tax burden is going to be over the next several years with this recent downdraft in commodity pricing?

感謝。後續——您談到了自由現金流的產生，特別是在 24 年，隨著曲線拐點走高。但我認為，我們從你們那裡得到的關於現金稅的最後更新，我們讓你們今年支付了一些現金稅，而且這個數字還會更高。您能否向我們介紹一下，隨著近期大宗商品價格的下跌，您認為未來幾年您的現金稅負將會是多少？

Yes. We don't foresee any cash taxes through '25 in any material really in '26. So not for the next 3 to 4 years. And with the prices in '23, that's kept us out of really any exposure to [AMT] qualification as well. So we don't see any cash taxes for at least the next 3 years.

是的。我們預計到 25 年，任何材料都不會在 26 年真正徵收任何現金稅。所以未來 3 到 4 年不會。考慮到 23 年的價格，這也使我們無法真正獲得 [AMT] 資格。因此，至少在未來三年內我們不會看到任何現金稅。

The next question comes from the line of Umang Choudhary with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自 Umang Choudhary 與高盛的對話。

My first question was a couple of follow-ups on the capital spending commentary which you made. Can you give us any color around your expectations for cost deflation heading into next year? and on [lower land] spending. And then you made a point that spending would be lower in 2025 as the decline rate for the shallow. Any color you can provide there would be great as well.

我的第一個問題是對您所做的資本支出評論的一些後續行動。您能否告訴我們您對明年成本通縮的預期？以及[低地]支出。然後您指出，2025 年的支出將會降低，因為下降幅度較淺。您可以提供的任何顏色也很棒。

Yes. On the completions, I think we have, of course, our service contracts around drilling and completions really have been locked in '23. That's why you don't see it there. But I think -- we've seen recent deals 5% to 10% lower than where our current contracts are. So I think that's a good starting point for '24 on potential savings there. And then looking at past '24, it's another 5% to 10% lower capital than that 10% we talked about for '24 versus '23. So it just continues to shallow and continues to go lower as our decline [shallow].

是的。關於完井，我認為當然，我們圍繞鑽井和完井的服務合同實際上已經鎖定在 23 年。這就是為什麼你在那裡看不到它。但我認為，我們最近的交易價格比我們當前的合同價格低 5% 到 10%。因此，我認為對於 24 世紀的潛在節省而言，這是一個很好的起點。然後看看過去的 24 年，與我們談到的 24 年與 23 年相比，資本又低了 5% 到 10%。因此，隨著我們的下降[淺]，它會繼續變淺並繼續走低。

Great. And quickly on the LPG side of the equation. It sounds like you think that the lower supply from the U.S. with current rig reductions and improvement in demand from China, we should expect an inflection in pricing. Any color you can provide in terms of when do you think the pricing could inflect -- it's kind of a challenging macro to make predictions here, but any -- do you feel like it's a kind of a winter event as demand starts to pick up also from heating, which can drive that inflection in pricing?

偉大的。並迅速轉向液化石油氣方面。聽起來您認為，隨著當前鑽機的減少以及中國需求的改善，美國的供應減少，我們應該預計價格會出現變化。您可以提供任何顏色來說明您認為價格何時會發生變化——這是一個具有挑戰性的宏觀預測，但是任何——您是否覺得隨著需求開始回升，這是一場冬季事件也來自供暖，這可以推動價格的變化嗎？

Yes, Umang, I would say, yes. It's -- as we head into the fourth quarter, a couple of things that will be happening along. As Justin mentioned in his comments on the gas side. As you see rig counts that are out there is still -- it takes some time to see the effect of that on the supply side, maybe we're starting to see that here recently just with some of the weaker EIA reports over the last several weeks where the propane builds have underwhelmed up versus expectations to the bullish side for us. But the other things, if you look at how propane is pricing right now relative to naphtha, it's doing its normal seasonal summertime spread that encourages propane to continue to be economic and a steam cracker as we head into the winter time -- as we saw this last winter and every winter before that, that decouples and propane price at higher percentages of naphtha throughout the wintertime.

是的，烏芒，我想說，是的。當我們進入第四季度時，將會發生一些事情。正如賈斯汀在他對天然氣方面的評論中提到的那樣。正如你所看到的，鑽機數量仍然存在——需要一些時間才能看到這對供應方面的影響，也許我們最近開始看到這一點，只是過去幾年中一些較弱的 EIA 報告與我們看漲的預期相比，過去幾週丙烷的產量並沒有給人留下深刻的印象。但其他事情，如果你看看丙烷目前相對於石腦油的定價情況，它正在進行正常的季節性夏季價差，這鼓勵丙烷在我們進入冬季時繼續保持經濟性和蒸汽裂解裝置 - 正如我們所看到的去年冬天和之前的每個冬天，丙烷價格在整個冬季的石腦油百分比都較高。

And then we also -- if you look at just how naphtha is pricing globally -- (inaudible), it's been different since the start of the war in the Ukraine. But even right now on the forward curve, naphtha is discounted relative to where it was this past winter. And obviously, the war was still incurring then we think there's some upside to naphtha, upside to propane, this (inaudible) that's not reflected in the forward curve. And then as I mentioned earlier in my remarks, maybe to Arun's question, the freight rates are anticipated to come down this winter as well. So multiple factors that should cause propane quite a bit of upside relative to what the forward curve is showing today in the low- to mid-70s.

然後我們也 - 如果你看看石腦油在全球的定價方式 - （聽不清），自烏克蘭戰爭爆發以來情況已經有所不同。但即使是現在，在遠期曲線上，石腦油相對於去年冬天的情況也存在折扣。顯然，戰爭仍在發生，我們認為石腦油、丙烷都有一些上漲空間，這一點（聽不清）沒有反映在遠期曲線中。正如我之前在發言中提到的，也許是針對阿倫的問題，預計今年冬天的運費也會下降。因此，多種因素應該會導致丙烷相對於今天 70 年代低至中期的遠期曲線顯示出相當大的上漲空間。

The next question comes from the line of Subhasish Chandra with the Benchmark Company.

下一個問題來自 Subhasish Chandra 與 Benchmark 公司的關係。

Mike, just to confirm your response to the cost [curve]. So -- the 10% as you've stated multiple times, purely capital efficiency and another 5% to 10% is expected could occur in '24 from materials and service cost deflation?

邁克，只是為了確認您對成本[曲線]的回應。那麼，正如您多次提到的那樣，純粹的資本效率將提高 10%，另外 5% 到 10% 預計可能會在 24 年因材料和服務成本通貨緊縮而出現？

There's that potential. I wouldn't say -- in Paul's remarks, he talked about it maybe too early to forecast that. That's why we're not including that. But it seems that's where the market is trending with the lower rig count, lower completion crews working in the basins.

有這樣的潛力。我不會說——在保羅的講話中，他談到這一點可能還為時過早。這就是為什麼我們不包括這一點。但這似乎就是市場的趨勢，鑽機數量減少，在盆地工作的完井人員減少。

Okay. Got it. Second question, this is equally complicated macro question, but -- you mentioned the polypropylene margins. There's a naphtha relationship. There's supply demand. But -- how far do you think the conditions -- the macro conditions are from maybe getting back to prices we saw in the first quarter? Do you think weather -- is winter weather is absolutely necessary to get there? Or do you think some of these other non-weather variables can get us there?

好的。知道了。第二個問題，這是同樣複雜的宏觀問題，但是——你提到了聚丙烯的利潤。存在石腦油關係。有供給就有需求。但是，您認為宏觀條件距離我們在第一季度看到的價格還有多遠？您認為天氣——冬天的天氣對於到達那裡是絕對必要的嗎？或者您認為其他一些非天氣變量可以幫助我們實現這一目標嗎？

Yes. I mean -- I think -- certainly, you can get there just on the supply reductions in the liquids-rich basins that we talked about. You can get there -- China starts to ramp up their property sector activity. There's -- as we talk -- I mentioned there so much excess PDH capacity that's available to ramp up that could certainly get you there without having a normal winter. So we'll continue to watch those things. Obviously, you don't expect to have a mild winter year after year after year. So there's certainly the potential there as well -- for some help from the mother nature, but you don't have to rely on that ultimately as we move through into 2024, if the demand starts to pick up as we anticipated will.

是的。我的意思是——我認為——當然，你可以通過我們談到的富含液體的盆地的供應減少來實現這一目標。你可以到達那裡——中國開始加大房地產行業的活動。正如我們所說，我提到有大量多餘的 PDH 容量可以增加，這肯定可以讓您在沒有正常冬天的情況下實現這一目標。所以我們將繼續關注這些事情。顯然，你不會期望年復一年都有溫和的冬天。因此，當然也有潛力——需要大自然的幫助，但當我們進入 2024 年時，如果需求開始像我們預期的那樣回升，你最終不必依賴它。

Got it. Okay. And just a final one for me. When you look at sort of the growth in liquids processing capacity, Marcellus, other liquids-rich basins, what's your thoughts there? Do you think it's running -- maybe running ahead or running behind -- what you think required production or expected production will be?

知道了。好的。對我來說這只是最後一件事。當您看到液體處理能力的增長時，馬塞勒斯和其他富含液體的盆地，您有什麼想法？你認為它正在運行——也許領先或落後——你認為所需的產量或預期的產量會是多少？

Sorry, you're asking about processing capacity in the Appalachian Basin, what we're seeing there just with some of the additional plants or plant that's been...

抱歉，您問的是阿巴拉契亞盆地的處理能力，我們在那裡看到的只是一些額外的工廠或已經......

Correct, yes. Has that surprised you to the upside or has it been expected?

正確，是的。這讓你感到驚訝還是在意料之中？

Not really. I mean -- I think when we look at what's actually being produced in the basin, I think there's been a little bit of growth this year and Antero has been the primary driver of that. So while -- on processing capacity, not just because you have maybe spare capacity in 1 location doesn't mean that a certain producer who's maybe drilling more rich acreage is able to utilize it. So you sometimes have to build a plant somewhere else at the well, another plant in another part of the basins, it's maybe more idle. So we haven't seen substantial growth in the region outside of our own growth and don't know that we would expect to really see much beyond the 1 plant that's talked about or coming online. They're going to see additional processing plants getting built in the region, just given the activity.

並不真地。我的意思是——我認為，當我們看看該盆地的實際產量時，我認為今年出現了一些增長，而 Antero 是其主要驅動力。因此，就加工能力而言，不僅僅是因為某個地點可能有閒置產能，並不意味著某個可能正在鑽探更豐富土地的生產商能夠利用它。所以有時你必須在井的其他地方建一個工廠，在盆地的另一個地方建另一個工廠，它可能更閒置。因此，除了我們自己的增長之外，我們還沒有看到該地區的實質性增長，並且不知道我們是否會期望真正看到超出所討論或上線的 1 座工廠之外的更多增長。鑑於這一活動，他們將看到該地區建造更多的加工廠。

The next question comes from the line of Nitin Kumar with Mizuho Securities.

下一個問題來自瑞穗證券 (Mizuho Securities) 的尼廷·庫馬爾 (Nitin Kumar)。

Not to keep beating a dead horse on the service cost side. But just you mentioned the 5% to 10%, and I appreciate it's too early. But in terms of the different components, what are you seeing in terms of price weakness or price trends right now? Are you seeing movement on the big ticket items like day rates or (inaudible) crew prices?

不要在服務成本方面繼續陷入困境。但剛才你提到了 5% 到 10%，我認為現在還為時過早。但就不同的組成部分而言，您目前認為價格疲軟或價格趨勢如何？您是否看到日費或（聽不清）船員價格等大件商品的變動？

Yes, that's really where the 5% to 10% is coming from, and that's compared to our current levels. So that's where we see -- recent deals being done a bit lower than we're at right now that we're locked in through '23. That's how we come up with 5% to 10%.

是的，這確實是 5% 到 10% 的來源，而且是與我們當前的水平相比。這就是我們看到的情況——最近的交易量比現在要低一些，因為我們鎖定到 23 年。這就是我們得出 5% 到 10% 的方法。

And can you remind us what is your current contracting for services? Are you running through 2023 or even into '24?

您能否提醒我們目前的服務合同是什麼？您是否會跑到 2023 年甚至 24 年？

Completions of 2023 rigs are intermittent (inaudible) throughout 2024 but first quarter, kind of third quarter and then the end of '24.

2023 年鑽機的完工在 2024 年期間是間歇性的（聽不清），但第一季度、第三季度，然後是 24 年底。

Got it. And if I can sneak one more in. I don't know if you answered that question, but you had, I think, $150 million of land spend this year. Should we expect a similar kind of level in '24 and '25? Are you seeing enough opportunity for that kind of inventory replenishment? Or should we expect that to drop next year? Any thoughts on that spending?

知道了。我不知道你是否回答了這個問題，但我認為你今年的土地支出為 1.5 億美元。我們是否應該期待 24 和 25 年出現類似的水平？您是否看到足夠的機會來補充這種庫存？或者我們應該預計明年這一數字會下降嗎？對這筆支出有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. It probably will drop next year and beyond. But if we have the same level of success that we've had this year and the opportunities, we will act on them because we are adding the most efficient possible inventory locations as they're just right next to our current development plan and consolidating our acreage position. But it is finite the amount of those opportunities. So we will project probably much looking at lower and more in the typical $75 million to $100 million range.

是的。明年及以後可能會下降。但是，如果我們取得了與今年相同水平的成功和機會，我們將採取行動，因為我們正在添加最有效的庫存地點，因為它們就在我們當前的發展計劃旁邊，並鞏固了我們的面積位置。但這些機會的數量是有限的。因此，我們可能會在 7500 萬至 1 億美元的典型範圍內考慮更低和更高的價格。

The next question comes from the line of Gregg Brody with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自格雷格·布羅迪（Gregg Brody）與美國銀行的對話。

I know this may be a difficult question to answer today, but just curious what your thoughts are, how Mountain Valley pipeline, the progress there with potentially coming online end of this year, how you think about that impacting your production and the ability to grow over time? I appreciate your maintenance mode today and looking for a better macro, but just love to hear your thoughts on that.

我知道今天這可能是一個很難回答的問題，但只是好奇你的想法是什麼，山谷管道如何，今年年底可能上線的進展，你如何看待這對你的生產和增長能力的影響隨著時間的推移？我很欣賞你今天的維護模式並尋找更好的宏，但只是想听聽你對此的想法。

Yes, Gregg, it was interesting. We did a study of Friday of the kind of basis prices on the Friday before that surprised MVP announcement versus Monday, and it actually just took the cost down kind of in the Northeast because that MVP volumes really cannot get down to the Southeast or to the more demand centers without some further expansions of pipeline. So it really didn't affect the NYMEX pricing or pricing outside of Northeast basis. And as you know, we have all the transport we need to get outside the basin. So I don't think it really has an impact on our ability to grow. I mean, I guess it would unlock a little bit of local growth if we chose to pursue that, but we're really attracted by NYMEX prices and not the local pricing is, Justin highlighted on this slide, local basis is still $1 off through 2027. So that's not attractive to us. So we still continue to fill our transport focus on our liquid acreage, focus on being as capital efficient as we are and being at maintenance capital.

是的，格雷格，這很有趣。我們對周五進行了研究，研究了 MVP 宣布之前的周五與週一的基價，這實際上只是降低了東北部的成本，因為 MVP 的銷量確實無法下降到東南部或東部地區。更多的需求中心，而無需進一步擴展管道。因此，它確實沒有影響 NYMEX 定價或東北地區以外的定價。如您所知，我們擁有離開盆地所需的所有交通工具。所以我認為這對我們的成長能力並沒有真正的影響。我的意思是，我想如果我們選擇追求這一點，它將釋放一點本地增長，但我們真正被 NYMEX 價格所吸引，而不是本地定價，賈斯汀在這張幻燈片上強調，本地基礎仍然是 1 美元的折扣2027 年。所以這對我們沒有吸引力。因此，我們仍然繼續將運輸重點放在我們的液體面積上，重點關注我們現在的資本效率和維護資本。

The next question comes from the line of Kevin MacCurdy with Pickering Energy Partners.

下一個問題來自 Pickering Energy Partners 的 Kevin MacCurdy。

A couple of questions on the free cash flow comments in the press release. Just to clarify, are you now expecting the full year 2023 to be free cash flow positive? And is that a result of the better production? Or is that comment just kind of looking at the back half of the year?

關於新聞稿中自由現金流評論的幾個問題。澄清一下，您現在是否預計 2023 年全年自由現金流為正？這是更好的生產的結果嗎？或者這個評論只是針對今年下半年的情況？

No, full year, we are a bit positive on today's strip.

不，全年，我們對今天的地帶有點樂觀。

Great. And then as a follow-up, can you maybe comment on the strategy on buyback timing? I was surprised to see you guys bought back some shares this quarter. And there certainly looks to be an opportunity with your stock now. I guess the question is, how comfortable are you buying back shares ahead of forecasted free cash flow?

偉大的。作為後續，您能否評論一下回購時機的策略？我很驚訝地看到你們本季度回購了一些股票。現在你的股票看起來肯定有機會。我想問題是，在預測的自由現金流之前回購股票有多舒服？

We're not comfortable in that. We -- the buyback that occurred in the second quarter, we just chose instead of issuing those shares from a tax perspective on the equity vesting, we chose this time to buy it back with our cash instead -- but typically, if we don't have free cash flow generation in the quarter, we're not going to be buying back any shares.

我們對此感到不舒服。我們——第二季度發生的回購，我們只是選擇從股權歸屬的稅收角度不發行這些股票，我們選擇這次用我們的現金回購——但通常情況下，如果我們不這樣做的話。由於本季度沒有自由現金流，我們不會回購任何股票。

Our next question is a follow-up from David Deckelbaum with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題是 David Deckelbaum 和 TD Cowen 的後續提問。

I just wanted to sneak one more in here. Just commenting back or coming around again to the balance sheet. And just curious like if internally, you have explicit goals of moving towards investment grade at this point, how critical you think of this moving forward, especially as you think about [LNG] counterparties and things like that? And how you think some of the [drills] on the facility or how you're sourcing operations right now is informing some of the rating agencies?

我只是想再偷偷溜進去一趟。只是評論回來或再次回到資產負債表上。只是好奇，如果在內部，您現在有明確的轉向投資級的目標，那麼您認為這一進展有多重要，特別是當您考慮[液化天然氣]交易對手和類似的事情時？您如何看待該設施的一些[演習]或您現在如何採購業務正在通知一些評級機構？

Yes. We're 1 upgrade away from being investment grade. We are investment grade from 1 of the 3, and 1 of the others were on BB+ positive watch. So -- and I would assume that if this commodity price deck comes to realization, meaning 350 in '24 and beyond that we will be investment grade sometime next year. So it's kind of an outcome of just where our balance sheet is and how efficient we are in our size and scale and how low our development costs are. So -- it should come if the commodity prices hang in there. And then it would be positive for future transactions, but it's not something that's required to realize our financial goals and to realize our results.

是的。我們距離投資級僅差一級。我們是 3 家公司中的 1 家，其中 1 家處於投資級別，其他 1 家處於 BB+ 正面觀察。因此，我假設，如果這個大宗商品價格平台得以實現，即 24 年及以後達到 350，我們將在明年某個時候達到投資級別。因此，這是我們的資產負債表狀況、我們的規模和規模的效率以及我們的開發成本有多低的結果。因此，如果大宗商品價格保持不變，那麼它應該會到來。這將對未來的交易產生積極的影響，但這並不是實現我們的財務目標和實現我們的成果所必需的。

The next question is a follow-up from Subhasish Chandra with the Benchmark Company.

下一個問題是 Subhasish Chandra 與 Benchmark Company 的後續問題。

Yes, the land budget. Any color you can give us, I think, you had a strong quarter -- the quarter before. The guidance didn't change very much. I didn't have another strong quarter now. Are these really sort of last-minute opportunities? Or how do you think of the balance of the year? And then is '24 completely unpredictable at this point?

是的，土地預算。我認為，無論你能給我們什麼顏色，你都有一個強勁的季度——前一個季度。指導意見沒有太大變化。我現在沒有再經歷一個強勁的季度。這些真的是最後一刻的機會嗎？或者你如何看待今年的餘額？那麼“24”現在是完全不可預測的嗎？

First, I'll talk about '23. I think we had $75 million in the first quarter, $35 million in the second, our guidance is $150 million. So that would suggest $20 million a quarter, and we're on that pace. I think we saw a lot of opportunities last year that we acted on. A lot of those closed in the first quarter. There was a little bit of momentum behind that as well that leaked into the second quarter. But right now, it's just your typical run rate of more like $20 million a quarter. And that's how we talk about next year and the following years, we generally expect $20 million to $25 million a quarter, and that's that $75 million to $100 million typical land budget that we have.

首先，我要談談'23。我認為我們第一季度的收入為 7500 萬美元，第二季度為 3500 萬美元，我們的指導是 1.5 億美元。因此，這意味著每季度 2000 萬美元，我們正按照這個速度進行。我認為去年我們看到了很多機會並採取了行動。其中很多都在第一季度關閉。這背後也有一些動力滲透到了第二季度。但現在，這只是典型的每季度 2000 萬美元左右的運行率。這就是我們談論明年和接下來的幾年的方式，我們通常預計每個季度 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元，這就是我們擁有的 7500 萬至 1 億美元的典型土地預算。

At this time, there are no further questions. And now I'd like to turn the floor back over to Brendan for any closing comments.

目前，沒有其他問題了。現在我想把發言權交還給布倫丹，徵求結束語。

Yes. Thank you for joining us for today's call. Please reach out with any further questions. Have a good day.

是的。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。如有任何其他問題，請聯繫我們。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a great day.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。