Antero Resources Corporation (AR) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Antero Resources Corporation fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

各位好，歡迎參加 Antero Resources Corporation 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I will now turn the conference over to your host, Dan Katzenberg, Finance Director. Thank you. Please go ahead.

現在我將把會議交給主持人，財務長丹‧卡岑伯格。謝謝。請繼續。

Thank you for joining us for Antero's fourth quarter 2025 Investor Conference Call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial operating highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the home page of our website at anteroresources.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

感謝您參加 Antero 2025 年第四季投資者電話會議。我們將花幾分鐘時間回顧財務營運要點，然後進行問答環節。我還想引導您訪問我們網站 anteroresources.com 的主頁，我們在那裡提供了單獨的收益電話會議演示文稿，我們將在今天的電話會議上進行回顧。

Today's call may contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures. Joining me on the call today are Michael Kennedy, CEO and President; Brendan Krueger, CFO; Dave Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing and Transportation; and Justin Fowler, Senior Vice President of Natural Gas Marketing. I will now turn the call over to Mike.

今天的電話會議可能包含某些非GAAP財務指標。有關這些措施的重要披露信息，請參閱我們的盈利新聞稿。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有：執行長兼總裁邁克爾·肯尼迪；首席財務官布倫丹·克魯格；液體營銷和運輸高級副總裁戴夫·坎內隆戈；以及天然氣營銷高級副總裁賈斯汀·福勒。現在我將把通話轉給麥克。

Thank you, Dan, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start my comments by recognizing the outstanding performance from both our upstream and midstream operation teams during the recent winter storm event. Despite subzero temperatures and significant snowfall, we did not experience any shut-in volumes during the period.

謝謝你，丹，大家早安。首先，我想表揚一下我們上游和中游營運團隊在最近的冬季風暴事件中表現出的出色能力。儘管氣溫低於零度，降雪量也很大，但在此期間我們沒有出現任何停工停產的情況。

In fact, our team was able to turn in line a seven-well pad during that time, a truly remarkable achievement by our people in the field enabling Antero to deliver critical natural gas to the various regions that desperately needed it.

事實上，在那段時間裡，我們的團隊成功地投產了一個七井平台，這是我們現場人員取得的一項真正了不起的成就，使 Antero 能夠向急需天然氣的各個地區輸送關鍵的天然氣。

In addition to navigating through the winter, we had a very successful last few months on other fronts. Last week, we announced the closing of the HG Energy acquisition ahead of our original expectations. This acquisition, combined with the sale of our Ohio Utica asset, solidifies Antero as the premier natural gas and NGL producer in West Virginia.

除了順利度過冬季之外，過去幾個月我們在其他方面也取得了非常成功的成果。上週，我們宣布提前完成了 HG Energy 的收購。此次收購，加上我們出售俄亥俄州尤蒂卡資產，鞏固了 Antero 作為西維吉尼亞州首屈一指的天然氣和 NGL 生產商的地位。

We're also excited that in January, we issued our inaugural investment-grade bonds. This offering provides substantial flexibility along with our free cash flow generation during this period that exceeded our initial expectations.

我們也很高興地宣布，今年1月，我們發行了首批投資等級債券。此次發行為我們提供了極大的靈活性，並且在此期間產生的自由現金流也超出了我們最初的預期。

Next, let's turn to slide number 3 titled Antero Strategic Initiatives. Last quarter, we introduced our long-term vision and strategic initiatives. The HG acquisition marked significant progress towards all of the goals we highlighted. These include expanding our core Marcellus position in West Virginia. This transaction added 385,000 net acres and over 400 drilling locations, extending our core inventory life by five years, increasing our dry gas exposure.

接下來，我們來看題為「Antero策略舉措」的第3張投影片。上個季度，我們推出了長期願景和策略舉措。收購 HG 標誌著我們在實現所有既定目標方面取得了重大進展。其中包括擴大我們在西維吉尼亞州的核心馬塞勒斯頁岩氣供應。此交易新增了 385,000 淨英畝土地和 400 多個鑽井位置，使我們的核心庫存壽命延長了五年，增加了我們的乾氣供應。

Our larger production and inventory base positions Antero to capture the significant demand opportunities from LNG exports in the Gulf Coast and data centers and natural gas-fired power plants regionally, adding hedges to lock in attractive free cash flow yields, providing high confidence in our free cash flow outlook over the next several years, reducing our cash costs and expanding margins.

我們更大的生產和庫存基礎使 Antero 能夠抓住墨西哥灣沿岸液化天然氣出口以及區域內數據中心和天然氣發電廠的巨大需求機會，透過對沖鎖定有吸引力的自由現金流收益率，使我們對未來幾年的自由現金流前景充滿信心，從而降低現金成本並擴大利潤率。

The transaction lowers our cost structure by nearly 10%, assuming no changes to commodity prices and expand margins. This in turn lowers our peer-leading breakeven prices even further. Lastly, it highlights the benefits of Antero's integrated structure with Antero Midstream.

假設大宗商品價格不變，該交易將使我們的成本結構降低近 10%，並擴大利潤率。這反過來又進一步降低了我們領先同業的損益平衡價格。最後，它重點介紹了 Antero 與 Antero Midstream 整合架構的優勢。

Now to touch on the current liquids and NGL fundamentals, I'm going to turn it over to our Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing and Transportation, Dave Cannelongo, for his comments.

現在，為了談談當前的液體和天然氣液的基本情況，我將把發言權交給我們的液體行銷和運輸高級副總裁戴夫·坎內隆戈，請他發表意見。

Thanks, Mike. The NGL market faced various headwinds in 2025, but many of these issues were singular events or trends that are expected to improve over the coming quarters. When looking back on 2025, three main fundamental forces caused propane inventories to move higher than market expectations.

謝謝你，麥克。2025年，NGL市場面臨各種不利因素，但其中許多問題都是個別事件或趨勢，預計在未來幾季會有所改善。展望 2025 年，三大基本因素導致丙烷庫存高於市場預期。

Slide number 4 titled, US Propane Stocks and Propane Days of Supply identifies these factors on the chart on the left. As we enter 2025, propane inventory levels were trending with a historic five-year average. However, US trade tensions with China and the resulting reshuffling of US propane exports to different destinations impacted US export volumes.

第 4 張投影片標題為“美國丙烷庫存和丙烷供應天數”，在左側圖表中列出了這些因素。進入 2025 年，丙烷庫存水準正朝著五年來的歷史平均值發展。然而，美國與中國的貿易緊張局勢以及由此導致的美國丙烷出口目的地的重新調整，影響了美國的出口量。

Additionally, this tariff shakeup came at a time when export expansions and existing terminals in the Gulf Coast were facing start-up delays or operational issues. Importantly, the chart on the right hand of the slide highlights the demand pull that persisted in the propane market last year despite these identified headwinds. Days of supply in 2025 consistently trended within the five-year range due to strong export and domestic demand.

此外，此次關稅調整正值墨西哥灣沿岸的出口擴張和現有碼頭面臨啟動延遲或營運問題之際。值得注意的是，幻燈片右側的圖表突顯了儘管存在這些不利因素，但去年丙烷市場的需求拉動仍然持續。由於強勁的出口和國內需求，2025 年的供應天數將持續維持在五年來的正常範圍內。

Turning to the supply side. While NGL supply is expected to continue to increase over the coming years, the rate of growth will likely moderate due to weaker oil prices. As shown on slide number 5, titled US C3+ Supply Growth Slows, the chart on the left displays year-over-year US supply growth decreasing from 328,000 barrels a day in 2024 to 131,000 barrels a day in 2026 and further to 45,000 barrels a day year-over-year in 2027.

接下來我們來看看供給面。儘管預計未來幾年天然氣凝液供應量將持續成長，但由於油價走弱，成長速度可能會放緩。如題為「美國 C3+ 供應成長放緩」的第 5 張投影片所示，左側圖表顯示，美國原油供應量年增率從 2024 年的 328,000 桶/天下降到 2026 年的 131,000 桶/天，並進一步下降到 2027 年的 45,000 桶。

This deceleration is expected due to the lower oil price environment and the resulting reduction in oil-focused drilling activity, especially in the Permian Basin. This trend is likely to continue in the current WTI price environment. Turning to exports. Significant LPG export capacity expansion was added in 2025, and there is more to come in 2026, entirely removing any potential market bottlenecks.

由於油價走低，石油開採活動減少，尤其是在二疊紀盆地，預計石油開採速度將放緩。在目前的WTI原油價格環境下，這種趨勢很可能會持續下去。轉向出口。2025 年新增了大幅的液化石油氣出口產能擴張，2026 年還將有更多產能擴張，徹底消除任何潛在的市場瓶頸。

Slide number 6 titled, Timely and Service Dates for LPG Export expansions illustrates that LPG export capacity should be unconstrained through at least 2028 allowing US barrels to continue to clear the market.

第 6 張投影片標題為“液化石油氣出口擴張的及時性和服務日期”，其中指出液化石油氣出口能力至少在 2028 年之前應該不受限制，從而使美國石油能夠繼續在市場上流通。

Slide number 7 illustrates the significant global NGL demand growth that is forecast for 2026, following several years of declining demand growth 2026 demand is expected to grow 563,000 barrels a day, the largest annual increase since 2021, driven by LPG increases in the steam crackers, rising PDH demand and annual res.com growth.

幻燈片 7 展示了預計 2026 年全球 NGL 需求將顯著增長，此前幾年需求增長持續下降。預計 2026 年需求將成長 563,000 桶/日，這是自 2021 年以來最大的年度增幅，主要受蒸汽裂解裝置中 LPG 產量增加、PDH 需求上升以及 res.com 年度增長的推動。

On the bottom of the slide, you can see the C3+ NGL price going back to 2021. Today, prices are above $35 per barrel, but with the backward-dated strip, the annual average is $33.50 per barrel. To put pricing into context, a $5 move in C3+ NGL pricing equates to $225 million in annual free cash flow. All of these factors lead third-party analysts to forecast propane storage levels returning to within the normal five-year range by the end of 2026, which should result in improving prices throughout the year.

在幻燈片的底部，您可以看到自 2021 年以來的 C3+ NGL 價格。今天，油價超過每桶 35 美元，但根據回溯日期的合約計算，年均油價為每桶 33.50 美元。為了更能理解價格，C3+ NGL 價格每變動 5 美元，每年的自由現金流就會變動 2.25 億美元。所有這些因素導致第三方分析師預測，到 2026 年底，丙烷庫存水準將恢復到五年來的正常範圍內，這將導致全年價格上漲。

With that, I'll now turn it over to our Senior Vice President of Natural Gas Marketing, Justin Fowler, to discuss the natural gas markets.

接下來，我將把發言權交給我們的天然氣行銷高級副總裁賈斯汀·福勒，讓他來討論天然氣市場。

Thanks, Dave. I'll start on slide number 8, which shows the Winner Residential and Commercial Demand. This winter, res-com demand has been extremely strong, with November through February, averaging nearly 42 Bcf per day. This results in an incremental 350 Bcf natural gas demand compared to the five-year average and is over 1 Bcf above last year.

謝謝你，戴夫。我將從第 8 張幻燈片開始，該幻燈片展示了住宅和商業需求的贏家。今年冬季，住宅能源需求異常強勁，11 月至 2 月期間，平均每天需求量接近 420 億立方英尺。與五年平均值相比，這將導致天然氣需求增加 3,500 億立方英尺，比去年高出 10 億立方英尺以上。

Further, January demand averaged over 50 Bcf, ranking it as the third strongest January res-com demand on record. January also saw the highest level of industrial natural gas demand on record dating back to 2005, which we believe to be in part related to the continued growth in behind-the-meter power demand for data centers.

此外，1 月份平均需求超過 500 億立方英尺，成為有史以來 1 月份再生能源需求第三高。1 月工業天然氣需求量也創下了自 2005 年有記錄以來的最高水平，我們認為這部分與資料中心用戶側電力需求的持續成長有關。

Turning to slide number 9 titled Natural Gas Storage. The result of this strong winter demand has been a dramatic flip in storage levels. At the start of the winter in November, storage was approximately 200 Bcf above the five-year level. Today, we are approximately 140 Bcf below the five-year loan.

請翻到題為「天然氣儲存」的第9張幻燈片。冬季強勁的需求導致庫存水準發生了巨大變化。11 月初冬季開始時，天然氣儲量比五年來的平均值高出約 2,000 億立方英尺。目前，我們的儲量比五年期貸款目標低約 1400 億立方英尺。

This should result in exiting withdraw season below the five-year average. Last year, we experienced mild summer demand, which drove storage levels to the high end of the five-year range by the fall. We believe substantially higher LNG demand, which is up over 5 Bcf a day from a year ago even before the imminent startup of Golden Pass.

這將使本季的提款額低於五年平均值。去年夏季需求溫和，導致秋季庫存水準達到五年來的較高水準。我們認為液化天然氣需求將大幅成長，即使在 Golden Pass 即將投產之前，其需求量也比一年前每天增加超過 50 億立方英尺。

Along with an increase in gas-fired power demand year-over-year will likely moderate storage injections in 2026 relative to historical levels. Supporting strong LNG export demand this year are the European storage level deficits versus the five-year average that continue to widen. Currently at approximately 600 Bcf below the average and are now approaching the historic low levels of 2022. This should incentivize to robust US LNG exports to Europe throughout this coming summer.

隨著天然氣發電需求逐年增加，2026 年的儲氣量可能相對於歷史水準下降。今年支撐液化天然氣出口需求強勁的因素是歐洲液化天然氣庫存水準與五年平均值相比持續擴大的缺口。目前天然氣儲量比平均值低約 6,000 億立方英尺，並且正在接近 2022 年的歷史低點。這將刺激美國液化天然氣在今年夏季對歐洲的強勁出口。

Next, on slide number 10, let's look at the pricing improvements at some of the hubs that we sell significant gas to. The chart on the left-hand side of the slide shows the TGP 500L basis streak. With the Plaquemine LNG facility consistently averaging feed gas of over 4 Bcf per day, we've seen increasing demand along our TGP 500L firm transport path, driving a higher premium at the delivery point relative to Henry Hub. For the full year 2026, the premium is now plus $0.66 to Henry Hub, the highest level we have seen on an annualized basis.

接下來，在第 10 張幻燈片中，我們來看看我們向其銷售大量天然氣的幾個樞紐的價格改進。投影片左側的圖表顯示了 TGP 500L 基差連續性。由於 Plaquemine LNG 設施的原料氣日均穩定超過 40 億立方英尺，我們看到 TGP 500L 固定運輸路線上的需求不斷增加，導致交貨點相對於 Henry Hub 的溢價更高。2026 年全年，亨利樞紐的溢價為 0.66 美元，這是我們迄今為止所看到的年度最高水準。

Next, the chart on the right of the slide shows local basis pricing relative to Henry Hub. Local pricing for 2026 is currently $0.74 back of Henry Hub compared to the $0.88 differential over the past five years on average. We believe this local basis differential could tighten further, driven by East region storage that is more than 13% below the five-year average.

接下來，投影片右側的圖表顯示了相對於亨利樞紐的本地基差定價。2026 年的本地價格目前比 Henry Hub 的價格低 0.74 美元，而過去五年的平均差價為 0.88 美元。我們認為，由於東部地區的庫存比五年平均值低 13% 以上，這種本地基差可能會進一步收窄。

As an example, the recent winter weather event, combined with this low storage in the East, led to February TCO prices settling at just approximately $0.15 differential to Henry Hub, the tightest February differential in 10 years.

例如，最近的冬季天氣事件，加上東部地區的低庫存，導致 2 月份 TCO 價格與亨利樞紐價格的差價僅為 0.15 美元左右，這是 10 年來 2 月份最小的價差。

Our acquisition of HG Energy substantially increases our exposure to strengthening local prices, driven by the significant regional demand growth. Historically, low storage in the East combined with this regional demand growth could result in a need for increased supply, supporting a decision for our growth capital option that Mike detailed earlier.

收購 HG Energy 大幅增加了我們受當地價格上漲影響的風險敞口，而當地價格上漲是由區域需求的顯著增長所驅動的。從歷史上看，東部地區的低儲存量加上該地區的需求成長，可能會導致需要增加供應，從而支持我們先前詳細介紹的成長資本方案。

This significant regional demand growth is driven by new natural gas power generation and data center projects being announced throughout our region and along our firm transportation corridor. All of these projects will be competing for natural gas that could face supply challenges in that short time frame.

區域內及沿著我們重要的交通走廊，新建天然氣發電和資料中心計畫不斷湧現，推動了該地區需求的顯著成長。所有這些項目都將爭奪天然氣，而天然氣供應在短時間內可能會面臨挑戰。

The HG acquisition increases Antero's dry gas production and drilling inventory, boosting our exposure to this regional demand. Our coordination with the Antero Midstream's ability to build out infrastructure and it supply the substantial water needs at these facilities, combined with our extensive land team puts Antero at a competitive advantage and participating in these projects.

收購 HG 將增加 Antero 的乾氣產量和鑽井庫存，從而提高我們對該地區需求的滿足程度。我們與 Antero Midstream 的協調合作，使其能夠建造基礎設施並滿足這些設施的大量用水需求，再加上我們龐大的土地團隊，使 Antero 具有競爭優勢並參與這些項目。

With that, I will turn over to Brendan Krueger, CFO of the Antero Resources.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給 Antero Resources 的財務長 Brendan Krueger。

Thanks, Justin. I'll start with slide number 11, which highlights our 2025 financial and operating results. Our operational performance in 2025 was one of our best years yet, as we set numerous company records. During the fourth quarter, we achieved a new stages per day company record for a single completion group hitting 19 stages in a day. For the full year, we averaged over 14 stages per day, an 8% increase from the 2024 average.

謝謝你，賈斯汀。我將從第 11 張投影片開始，其中重點介紹了我們 2025 年的財務和營運表現。2025 年，我們的營運表現是迄今為止最好的一年，我們創造了多項公司紀錄。第四季度，我們單一完井組一天內完成了 19 個階段，創下了公司單日完井階段數的新紀錄。全年平均每天超過 14 個賽段，比 2024 年的平均值增加了 8%。

Our drilling team achieved its best annual rate averaging under five drilling days per 10,000 feet, 4% faster the 2024 average. The chart on the right-hand of the slide highlights our 2025 financial highlights. During the year, we generated over $750 million in free cash flow.

我們的鑽井團隊實現了年度最佳鑽井速度，平均每 10,000 英尺鑽井天數不到 5 天，比 2024 年的平均速度快 4%。投影片右側的圖表重點介紹了我們 2025 年的財務亮點。年內，我們創造了超過 7.5 億美元的自由現金流。

We used this free cash flow to reduce debt by over $300 million, repurchased $136 million of stock and invest more than $250 million in accretive acquisitions. The strength of our balance sheet and the consistency of our free cash flow operation supports an opportunistic return of capital strategy where we can pivot between debt reduction, buybacks and accretive transactions or a portfolio approach to all of these in order to drive shareholder value.

我們利用這筆自由現金流減少了 3 億美元的債務，回購了 1.36 億美元的股票，並投資超過 2.5 億美元用於增值收購。我們穩健的資產負債表和穩定的自由現金流營運支持我們採取機會主義的資本回報策略，我們可以靈活地在減少債務、股票回購和增值交易之間進行調整，或者採取投資組合的方式來實現所有這些目標，從而提升股東價值。

Next, slide 12 highlights our 2026 production and capital outlook. Starting with the capital table at the top of the slide. Our drilling and completion capital budget is $1 billion. This includes $900 million for maintenance capital and $100 million from the higher working interest as a result of foregoing a drilling joint venture partner this year.

接下來，第 12 張投影片重點介紹了我們 2026 年的生產和資本展望。首先來看投影片頂部的資本表格。我們的鑽井和完井資本預算為10億美元。這其中包括 9 億美元的維護資本，以及今年由於放棄鑽井合資夥伴而獲得的更高工作權益的 1 億美元。

Additionally, we have an incremental three pads that we could develop in 2026 that would add up to $200 million of growth capital during the year and drive further 2027 production growth.

此外，我們還有三個新增的油氣田，可以在 2026 年進行開發，這將在當年增加 2 億美元的成長資本，並推動 2027 年的產量進一步成長。

The bottom of the slide highlights our production outlook. In 2025, we averaged 3.4 Bcfe a day. For 2026, we forecast 4.1 Bcfe a day of production. This maintenance production level reflects the early February close of the HG acquisition and the expectation that the Ohio Utica divestiture closes in February.

幻燈片底部重點介紹了我們的生產前景。到 2025 年，我們平均每天將生產 3.4 Bcfe。我們預測 2026 年日產量將達到 41 億立方英尺當量。這項維持性生產水準反映了 HG 收購案在 2 月初完成，以及對 Ohio Utica 資產剝離案在 2 月完成的預期。

Next, as we have discussed, we laid out growth to 4.3 Bcfe a day in 2027 due to not having a drilling JV this year and a growth option that could increase our 2027 production up to 4.5 Bcfe a day. This discretionary growth option will be based on the outlook for natural gas prices and in-basin demand during the year.

接下來，正如我們討論過的，由於今年沒有鑽井合資企業，我們預計到 2027 年產量將增長至每天 43 億立方英尺當量，並且還有一個增長選項可以將我們 2027 年的產量提高到每天 45 億立方英尺當量。這項酌情成長選項將取決於當年天然氣價格和盆地內需求的預期。

Now let's turn to slide 13 to discuss our updated hedge program. To derisk the acquisition of HG, we hedge those volumes to provide a clear path to funding the transaction in just three years, using the free cash flow from those hedges along with the divestiture of our Ohio Utica assets.

現在讓我們翻到第 13 張投影片，討論我們更新後的避險方案。為了降低收購 HG 的風險，我們對這些交易量進行對沖，從而為在短短三年內完成交易提供明確的資金來源，利用這些對沖交易產生的自由現金流以及出售我們在俄亥俄州尤蒂卡的資產所得資金。

In 2026 and 2027, we are hedged with a combination of swaps and white collars. We have approximately 40% of our 2026 natural gas volumes hedged with swaps at a price of $3.92 per MMBtu. We have another 20% hedged with wide collars between $3.24 and $5.70 per MMBtu.

2026 年和 2027 年，我們透過互換和白領保險的組合進行避險。我們已透過互換合約對沖了 2026 年約 40% 的天然氣產量，價格為每百萬英熱單位 3.92 美元。我們也用每百萬英熱單位 3.24 美元至 5.70 美元之間的寬領式選擇權對沖了另外 20% 的部位。

Our hedge book allows us to protect the downside by locking in a portion of our free cash flow, while at the same time, maintaining attractive exposure to higher natural gas prices. I will close by commenting that while our equity value remains near levels from before the HG acquisition, our company is much stronger today.

我們的對沖策略使我們能夠透過鎖定一部分自由現金流來保護下行風險，同時保持對天然氣價格上漲的良好敞口。最後我想指出，雖然我們的股權價值仍接近 HG 收購之前的水平，但我們公司如今的實力要強大得多。

Through the transaction, we increased our production base by over 30%, extended our Marcellus core inventory by five years, reduced our cash cost by nearly 10% and substantially increased our free cash flow. We achieved all of this without using any of our equity, and we expect leverage by the end of 2026 to be similar to where we were prior to the HG acquisition, which was just below 1 times.

透過此交易，我們的生產基地擴大了 30% 以上，馬塞勒斯頁岩氣核心庫存延長了 5 年，現金成本降低了近 10%，自由現金流大幅增加。我們實現了所有這些目標，而且沒有動用任何股權。我們預計到 2026 年底，槓桿率將與收購 HG 之前的情況類似，當時的槓桿率略低於 1 倍。

Looking forward, we are well positioned to capitalize on the significant natural gas demand growth expected both on the LNG front and the Gulf Coast and from the significant power demand that we see occurring regionally. With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

展望未來，我們已做好充分準備，掌握液化天然氣和墨西哥灣沿岸地區預計的天然氣需求大幅成長，以及我們預計該地區將出現的顯著電力需求成長。接下來，我將把電話轉交給接線員，回答大家的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

John Freeman, Raymond James.

約翰·弗里曼，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

The first topic just on the growth capital, just wanted to know if you could kind of provide a little bit more color on sort of what kind of in base demand, gas price assumptions you all would need to kind of support that growth plan kind of relative to the current strip and outlook?

第一個問題是關於成長資本的，我想了解一下，相對於目前的市場狀況和前景，你們需要什麼樣的基本需求和汽油價格假設來支持這個成長計畫？

Yes, John, our goal is always to have the most capital-efficient development program, and we do have that. But what that leads us to is to try to have a steady-state program. So we're running three rigs and two completion crews right now. So maintaining that wood resulting growth not only in '27, at a couple of hundred million a day, but also in the further out years, but an attraction of this though is that is flexible. We have the ability just to do our maintenance capital program with leading and drilling two or three less pads and still maintaining production and then deferring those pads in the future years.

是的，約翰，我們的目標始終是製定最節約資金的開發方案，而我們也確實做到了。但這最終導致我們需要嘗試制定一個穩態方案。所以我們目前有三台鑽孔機和兩個完井作業隊在運作。因此，不僅在 2027 年，而且在未來的幾年裡，都要保持木材帶來的成長，每天成長數億，但這種成長的吸引力在於它的靈活性。我們有能力只進行維護性資本計劃，少鑽兩三個鑽井平台，仍然能夠維持生產，然後將這些鑽井平台推遲到未來幾年進行。

You saw us do that in 2024 when you had kind of a $2 gas environment or $2 plus. But then when the natural gas return to more kind of the $3-plus level. We completed those paths. So that's kind of the expectation here. All of that is -- has the ability to be deferred.

你們在 2024 年就看到了我們這樣做，當時汽油價格大概在每加侖 2 美元或更高。但當天然氣價格回升到 3 美元以上的水平。我們完成了這些路徑。所以，這大概就是大家的預期。所有這些都有可能被推遲。

It's all second half capital. So we can call a multiple then. But if you saw a $3-plus gas, and as Brendan mentioned in his comments, the local differentials being so tight, that continues. You'd probably see us complete those pads and drill those pads, but if it was lower gas environment, we defer those into future years. The other nice thing on this capital and this growth, it's not based on any commitments.

全部都是下半年的資金。所以我們可以稱之為倍數。但是，如果你看到汽油價格超過 3 美元，而且正如 Brendan 在他的評論中提到的那樣，由於當地油價差很小，這種情況還會繼續下去。你可能會看到我們完成那些鑽井平台的建設和鑽探，但如果天然氣環境較差，我們會將這些工作推遲到未來幾年。這項資本和成長的另一個好處是，它不是基於任何承諾。

So it truly is flexible. It truly is an option value for us. No commitments with that, it is all local gas. And with the discussions we're having and the prices we're seeing, and we've actually already entered into some sales to utilities off of MVP as those continue we'll complete those pads into those opportunities.

所以它的確非常靈活。這對我們來說確實是一個值得考慮的選擇。沒有這方面的承諾，全是本地天然氣。鑑於我們正在進行的討論和我們看到的價格，而且我們實際上已經透過 MVP 專案與一些公用事業公司達成了一些銷售協議，隨著這些協議的繼續，我們將把這些專案轉化為這些機會。

That's great, very helpful. And then just my follow-up. On slide 11, you'll show kind of the breakdown of the uses of the free cash flow last year, roughly about 20% of the free cash flow went to buybacks. And as -- Brendan, as you mentioned, the leverage will be back below 1 time before the end of the year. Is there any sort of like just sort of absolute debt target or something like that, that we should be looking at to where you would then potentially maybe more aggressively shift toward buybacks? And I know you're being opportunistic, but if there's just some sort of metrics we should be following.

太好了，很有幫助。然後是我的後續發言。在第 11 張投影片中，您將展示去年自由現金流用途的細分情況，大約 20% 的自由現金流用於股票回購。正如布倫丹所說，槓桿率將在年底前回落到 1 倍以下。是否存在某種絕對債務目標之類的指標，我們應該專注於該目標，以便我們能夠更積極地轉向股票回購？我知道你是在投機取巧，但如果有一些我們應該遵守的指標就好了。

No, there's no metrics. I think we're better positioned now than ever to be countercyclical in buying back shares with our hedge position, our size and scale, very comfortable buying back shares regardless of where our debt is right now. But with that said, paying down the debt is normally when we actually perform the best from an equity standpoint, derisking the business, getting it under 1 time as a result of this year's activity. But if there is an ability to opportunistically buy back shares and be countercycle, that's something that we would take advantage of.

不，沒有衡量標準。我認為，憑藉我們的對沖頭寸、規模和實力，我們現在比以往任何時候都更有能力進行逆週期股票回購，無論我們目前的債務狀況如何，我們都非常有信心回購股票。但即便如此，從股權角度來看，償還債務通常是我們表現最好的時候，可以降低業務風險，並且由於今年的業績，將本益比降至 1 倍以下。但如果能夠伺機回購股票並逆週期操作，那就是我們會利用的優勢。

Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan.

Arun Jayaram，摩根大通。

Mike, you've had -- it's been just over 60 days since you announced the HG deal. And I was wondering as you look a little bit more under the hood thought on potential upside potential to the synergy number. I think you identified $950 million of PV-10 synergies. Just maybe thoughts on where you stand regarding synergies and how do you think about potential upside or better capital efficiency even as we look at 2026.

麥克，距離你宣布 HG 交易已經過去 60 多天了。我想知道，當你更深入了解情況後，你認為協同效應數值會有怎樣的潛在提升空間。我認為你已經發現了價值 9.5 億美元的 PV-10 協同效應。或許您可以談談您對綜效的看法，以及您如何看待潛在的成長空間或更高的資本效率，即使我們展望 2026 年。

Yes, Arun, it's actually better than our expectations. I was actually out there last week. It's really apparent when you go out there. It is part of our field. It's adjacent. It should have -- we're the natural developer of it, just extends our field south to that southern row of dry gas and liquids opportunities, a little flatter down there, bigger pads and ability to have wider space and do bigger completions have terrific recoveries.

是的，阿倫，這實際上比我們預期的還要好。我上週其實去過那裡。當你走到那裡的時候，這一點就非常明顯了。這是我們領域的一部分。它就在旁邊。本來就應該如此——我們是這方面的天然開發商，只是將我們的油田向南延伸到南部那片乾氣和液體資源豐富的區域，那裡的地勢稍微平坦一些，更大的井場和更廣闊的空間，以及更大的完井作業，都帶來了極佳的採收率。

The other thing that's come to our attention is just an improvement in our cost structure. And that's coinciding with all this local gas demand and better in-basin pricing, which we didn't underwrite and didn't have. So there'll be some upside on the pricing, I think. And then I think there'll be further upside on the cost structure and recoveries and expanding our margins.

我們注意到的另一點是成本結構的改善。而這恰逢當地天然氣需求旺盛，盆地內價格上漲，而我們既沒有承銷也沒有參與其中。所以我覺得價格還會有一些上漲空間。我認為成本結構和回收率還有進一步提升的空間，利潤率也會進一步提高。

Great. Mike, just maybe a follow-up. I believe on the third quarter call, you highlighted how Antero was completing one of its kind of first dry gas pads in a number of years. And I was wondering if you could give us any sense if you have enough data to maybe to give us some thoughts on how the results played out relative to your expectations? And does this set up more of an opportunity for AR on the dry gas side?

偉大的。麥克，或許可以跟進一下。我相信在第三季財報電話會議上，您重點介紹了 Antero 多年來首次完成的乾氣井平台專案。我想知道您是否有足夠的數據，讓我們了解結果是否符合您的預期？這是否為乾氣方面的 AR 創造了更多機會？

The completion crew right now is on that pad, the Flanagan pad. So it just went on there this week, Arun, moving from the Shinn Well pad over to that. So still early on that, but we have high expectations for it and very confident in its results.

目前完工團隊正在弗拉納根平台進行作業。所以就在這週，Arun 從 Shinn Well 的地盤搬到了那裡。雖然現在還處於早期階段，但我們對其寄予厚望，並對其結果充滿信心。

Mike MacCurdy, Pickering Energy Partners.

Mike MacCurdy，Pickering Energy Partners。

It's Kevin MacCurdy. As we look at the production ramp this year, you end up at the same spot, but the ramp is maybe a touch lower than we were expecting. I wonder if you could maybe touch on the variables that impact that ramp. And does that ramp mainly on the acquired assets?

是凱文·麥克柯迪。當我們審視今年的產量爬坡情況時，最終會發現結果與預期相同，但爬坡幅度可能比我們預期的要低一些。我想請您談談影響這成長速度的因素。而且這種成長主要依賴收購的資產嗎？

Yes. On the production, it's not a touch lower. It's as expected. We gave some quarterly performance. We closed it quicker than we thought when we mentioned the 42 on the initial call, that was from Q2 to Q4, it's still 42.

是的。產量方面，一點也不低。正如預期的那樣。我們公佈了一些季度業績。我們比預想的更快完成了交易。在最初的電話會議上，我們提到了 42，那是從第二季度到第四季度，現在仍然是 42。

It's 41 now in Q2 with a turn in line happening in the middle of the quarter that pushes that up to 42. So it's as expected. So the cadence is terrific and then goes to 43 in '27. And then with the growth capital that we have if we execute on that plan, we'd be at 4.5 in '27.

目前第二季為 41，季度中期的一次調整將使這一數字上升到 42。正如預期的那樣。所以節奏非常棒，然後在 '27 時達到 43。然後，如果我們執行該計劃，憑藉我們現有的成長資本，到 2027 年我們將達到 4.5。

Great. And maybe shifting to NGLs. As we track the C3 prices for Antero, it looks like domestic prices haven't moved much this year. But international prices have been driving your forecast as C3 price for the year up a little bit. I wonder if you can touch on maybe what you think is driving that arbitrage and how you think that progresses through the year? And maybe is Mont Belvieu fully debottleneck now? Or are we waiting on further expansions this year?

偉大的。或許會轉向天然氣液化產品。我們追蹤 Antero C3 的價格，看起來今年國內價格並沒有太大變動。但國際價格已經推高了您對今年 C3 價格的預測，使其略有上漲。我想請您談談您認為推動套利的因素是什麼，以及您認為這種套利現像在一年中是如何發展的？蒙貝爾維尤的瓶頸問題現在是否已完全解決？或者我們在等待今年的進一步擴張？

Yes, Kevin, this is Dave. I'll take that one. So on your first question on the -- what's driving the international pricing, typically, we see this time of the year in the winter, propane prices really kind of rise relative to naphtha. So we're seeing levels that are kind of in line with what we've seen in prior winters. But certainly, some of the issues that we had on the US

是的，凱文，我是戴夫。我選那個。所以關於你的第一個問題——是什麼因素驅動了國際價格，通常情況下，在每年的這個時候，也就是冬季，我們看到丙烷價格相對於石腦油確實會上漲。所以，我們看到目前的水位與往年冬季的水位基本上一致。但當然，我們在美國遇到的一些問題

export infrastructure side, kind of a lower or a later start on some of the expansion capacity that maybe we had anticipated, some challenges at some bullet refrigeration units. As I mentioned in my comments, kind of led us to see the inventories in the US kind of go a little higher than what folks were modeling and expecting at that point in time. So I think here in the first quarter, we're seeing those issues resolve. We typically have some fog challenges, the winner as we always do, but strong domestic demand is kind of keeping that from being too noticeable in the inventory levels.

在出口基礎設施方面，一些擴建產能的啟動時間可能比我們預期的要晚一些，一些子彈頭冷凍裝置也面臨一些挑戰。正如我在評論中提到的，這導致我們看到美國的庫存比當時人們的預測和預期略高一些。所以我認為在第一季度，我們看到這些問題正在解決。我們通常會遇到一些霧霾帶來的挑戰，我們一如既往地取得了成功，但強勁的國內需求使得這種情況在庫存水平上不太明顯。

But just the usual international markets having a strong desire for US LPG. And when they see any kind of hiccup of the dock and kind of the peak demand season of the winter, you see that flow through in the pricing, while we always see that appreciation versus naphtha. And then yes, on the export side, I would say, really seeing -- even though we kind of talked about expansions in 2025, didn't really see the effect of those until we get into calendar year 2026 and then further expansion is coming. So kind of view us really at the front end of that debottlenecking in the Gulf Coast right now.

但國際市場對美國液化石油氣的需求依然十分旺盛。當他們看到碼頭出現任何小問題，以及冬季的需求高峰期，你會看到價格受到衝擊，而我們總是看到石油相對於石腦油的價格上漲。是的，在出口方面，我想說，雖然我們討論過 2025 年的擴張，但直到 2026 年才真正看到這些擴張的影響，而且未來還將有進一步的擴張。所以，現在我們可以算是墨西哥灣沿岸地區消除瓶頸的先鋒了。

Greta Drefke, Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

Greta Drefke，高盛資產管理公司。

My first is just on the winter gas realizations. Given the volatility in both the Gulf Coast and Northeast pricing this winter we've seen so far, can you speak a little bit more about your outlook for gas realizations in this quarter in particular? And just key considerations to keep in mind in the context of your scale of volumetric exposure at the Gulf Coast and the moving pieces of the two transactions?

我的第一點是關於冬季天然氣價格的估計。鑑於今年冬季墨西哥灣沿岸和東北部天然氣價格的波動性，您能否再詳細談談您對本季天然氣價格的預期？考慮到您在墨西哥灣沿岸的交易量以及這兩筆交易的各個環節，有哪些關鍵因素需要牢記？

Greta , I mentioned in my initial comments, we didn't have any curtailment. So obviously, we've anticipated in the pricing that occurred in region and on the Gulf Coast in the first quarter. So we typically have 80% first of month and 20% on the day. So we were able to sell 20% daily pricing during the quarter.

格雷塔，我在最初的評論中提到過，我們沒有任何限制。顯然，我們已經預料到了第一季該地區和墨西哥灣沿岸的定價。所以我們通常有 80% 的訂單在月初完成，20% 在當天完成。因此，我們本季實現了每日定價20%的銷售目標。

Great. And then a quick follow-up as well just on hedges. Given the amount of volatility we see start of the year, can you just talk a little bit about your current view on potentially layering in incremental hedges in 2027 or beyond if the forward curve gives you that opportunity?

偉大的。然後，再快速跟進一下關於樹籬的問題。鑑於年初的波動性，您能否談談您目前對在 2027 年或以後，如果遠期曲線提供機會，是否考慮逐步增加對沖的看法？

Yes. I think you said that well, '26 were set 60% hedged in the high $3 level and some white collars. '27, we have some room to go. We're about 900 million a day hedged. So about 30% hedged in that high $3 level.

是的。我認為你之前說過，2026年的選擇權已經對沖了60%的行情，目標價位在3美元以上，還有一些白領股。至於2027年的選擇權，我們還有一定的操作空間。我們每天大約有9億英鎊的資金用於對沖風險。因此，大約有 30% 的資金在高點 3 美元處進行了對沖。

I think a high $3 level is a good area to target. The other thing to note is the M2 basis has really come in. I think it's the tightest it's been on a forward-looking curve in 10 years, ability to hedge at about 75, 76 back level. So you have high $3 and hedge the local basis at 75, 76, lock in $3 realizations at the wellhead locally that's an attractive level for us. So I think we continue to layer some of those in.

我認為3美元以上的價位是一個不錯的目標價位。另一點要注意的是，M2 基差確實有下降。我認為這是 10 年來前瞻性曲線最緊的一次，可以在 75、76 左右的水平進行對沖。所以，油價在 3 美元左右，對沖當地基差在 75、76 美元，鎖定井口 3 美元的實現價格，這對我們來說是一個有吸引力的水平。所以我認為我們會繼續逐步加入這些元素。

Josh Silverstein, UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Josh Silverstein。

Just going back to the cost structure. Can you talk about how this may change throughout the course of the year? I believe you talked about the $0.25 per Mcf margin improvement. Do GP&T costs start higher than decline? So you also see a benefit into 2027 versus 1Q of this year? Any sort of direction there would be helpful.

讓我們回到成本結構。您能談談這種情況在一年中可能會發生哪些變化嗎？我相信你提到每千立方英尺利潤率提高 0.25 美元的事。GP&T成本是先高後低？所以您認為到 2027 年相比今年第一季也會有好處？任何指引都會很有幫助。

I think you touched on it, $0.25 is a good level. Obviously, there's some variable component to our cost structure. You recall, every dollar up in the natural gas price is about a $0.10 variable just on production taxes and transport costs on RFP. So you had a little bit of that up compared to that when we mentioned in December because the gas curve is actually up $0.60 of '26. So you saw about a $0.06 increase from there.

我覺得你已經提到了，0.25美元是個不錯的價位。顯然，我們的成本結構中存在一些變動因素。您應該記得，天然氣價格每上漲 1 美元，RFP 僅生產稅和運輸成本就大約會增加 0.10 美元。所以，與我們 12 月提到的情況相比，現在的情況略有上升，因為汽油曲線實際上比 2026 年上漲了 0.60 美元。所以，從那以後，價格上漲了大約 0.06 美元。

But conversely, our realizations as well are still in that $0.10 to $0.20 premium whereas we thought would be more flat. So the ability at 800 million a day of local dry gas and still have a $0.10 to $0.20 premium to NYMEX for '26 is terrific. So looking good there, but I think you hit on it about a 10% reduction in our cost structure, about $0.25.

但反過來，我們的實際收益仍然維持在 0.10 美元到 0.20 美元的溢價水平，而我們原本以為溢價會更加平穩。因此，每天能生產 8 億桶本地乾氣，並且 2026 年還能比紐約商品交易所 (NYMEX) 的價格高出 0.10 至 0.20 美元，這真是太棒了。看起來不錯，但我認為你說的沒錯，我們的成本結構需要減少 10%，大約 0.25 美元。

Got it. And then I just wanted to shift over towards any sort of potential power supply deals that and see how those are progressing with the new HG volumes and some of the interconnects that you now have are a little bit better in West Virginia, however those may be developing? And you've talked about now improving kind of local basis as well, how you been able to structure these?

知道了。然後，我想把話題轉向任何潛在的電源供應交易，看看隨著新的HG產量和一些互連技術在西弗吉尼亞州取得的進展，這些進展情況稍好一些，不過這些可能正在發展中？您也談到如何改善在地化工作，您是如何建立這些工作的？

Josh, this is Brendan. So overall, I think on the power side, as Mike mentioned, I think it is prepared remarks, we're selling some of that gas already to utilities that are buying for a lot of this gas-fired power demand that we're seeing. I think on top of that, we continue to see RFPs come in quite frequently on additional gas supply in the next several years.

喬希，這位是布倫丹。所以總的來說，我認為在電力方面，正如麥克所提到的，我認為我們已經準備好了一些天然氣，賣給了那些購買天然氣以滿足我們目前看到的大量燃氣發電需求的公用事業公司。我認為除此之外，未來幾年我們還將頻繁看到額外天然氣供應的招標邀請書。

I think as they get closer to being in service, they then turn to some of the larger gas producers and particularly investment-grade gas producers in the region to look to lock in some of that supply, so we're seeing a lot of interesting conversations there and we'll look to continue to lock in some of that pricing over time here.

我認為，隨著這些天然氣管道接近投入使用，他們會轉向該地區一些較大的天然氣生產商，特別是投資級天然氣生產商，以鎖定部分供應，因此我們看到這方面有很多有趣的對話，我們將繼續努力，爭取隨著時間的推移鎖定部分價格。

Phillip Jungwirth, BMO Capital Markets.

Phillip Jungwirth，BMO資本市場。

Your FT portfolio, it's always delivered leading realizations, smooth out price volatility. Most of this has signed up a long time ago. So I was just hoping you could talk about how you see yourself managing this FT position through the decade, including that associated with ethane, C3+.

您的FT投資組合始終提供領先的收益，並能平抑價格波動。其中大部分人很久以前就簽約了。所以，我只是希望你能談談你如何看待自己在未來十年管理這個全職職位，包括與乙烷、C3+ 相關的職位。

Is there any you don't feel the need to keep? And is there just a long-term margin optimization story here through recontracting or maybe even picking up different FTs from others who don't have inventory?

有沒有哪些是你覺得沒必要保留的？難道只是為了透過重新簽訂合同，或從其他沒有庫存的公司收購不同的FT（貨運代理）來實現長期的利潤優化嗎？

Yes, good question. Definitely in optimization. I mean, we're so well positioned right now. We can pick and choose the best path going forward, also now with flexibility in the local dry gas. So we can do both. And that's an opportunity for us over the next couple of years as some of these long-term agreements come to the end of their original agreement, we'll assess whether it makes sense.

是的，問得好。絕對在優化階段。我的意思是，我們現在處境非常有利。我們現在可以根據實際情況選擇最佳的發展路徑，而當地乾氣資源也更有彈性。所以我們可以兩者兼顧。在接下來的幾年裡，隨著一些長期協議到期，這將是我們的一個機會，我們將評估這些協議是否有意義。

But that's a great story for us on a go forward and definitely upside our ability to optimize those transport paths and optimize our cost structure.

但這對我們未來的發展來說是一個好消息，絕對有利於我們優化運輸路線和成本結構。

Okay. Great. And then as we think about the organic leasing program, I was just hoping you could kind of frame the competitive moat you have here in terms of existing footprint or infrastructure. There's still some smaller players in and around you. And just -- what's the pathway for some of these smaller E&Ps to efficiently develop their position? Or have you made it pretty prohibitive for them to do that given your large foot and surrounding footprint?

好的。偉大的。然後，當我們考慮有機租賃計劃時，我只是希望您能從現有規模或基礎設施的角度來闡述您在這裡擁有的競爭優勢。你所在的地區及週邊還有一些規模較小的玩家。那麼，對於一些規模較小的油氣探勘開發公司來說，如何有效地發展壯大自身市場地位呢？或者說，鑑於你巨大的腳掌和周圍的環境，你已經讓他們很難做到這一點了？

No, we are, obviously, the West Virginia natural gas and NGL producer and our size and scale makes a lot more efficient for us to develop the asset compared to others. So I think you'll continue to see us build upon that, whether through organic leasing or small transactions, but continue to just consolidate our position in West Virginia, and that will continue to drive our capital efficiency and lower cost structure and margins.

不，很顯然，我們是西維吉尼亞州的天然氣和液化天然氣生產商，我們的規模和體積使我們開發資產的效率遠高於其他公司。所以我認為你會看到我們繼續在此基礎上發展，無論是透過有機租賃還是小額交易，都會繼續鞏固我們在西維吉尼亞州的地位，這將繼續提高我們的資本效率，降低成本結構和利潤率。

Leo Mariani, ROTH.

Leo Mariani，ROTH。

Just wanted to follow up a little bit on the growth CapEx question. Obviously, you guys kind of cited that this $3-plus world is sufficient for you guys to go ahead and spend some of that growth CapEx. Just wanted to kind of clarify, is that a $3 Henry Hub price?

我想就成長資本支出問題再補充一點。顯然，你們已經表示，3美元以上的市場規模足以讓你們投入一些成長資本支出。我只是想確認一下，這是 3 美元的 Henry Hub 的價格嗎？

Or is that more of a $3 kind of in-basin price, which seems like you're fairly close to that, given the tightening basis as we roll into next year? And then if you do decide to spend the capital, could you just provide a little bit of color in terms of what that looks like in the second half? Is most of that CapEx kind of fourth quarter and the production starts to ramp kind of early in '27? Just any kind of moving pieces around that would be great.

或者說，這更像是盆地內 3 美元左右的價格？考慮到明年油價基差收緊，你現在的油價似乎相當接近這個價格了？那麼，如果您決定動用這筆資金，能否稍微具體說明下半年的發展方向呢？大部分資本支出是否都集中在第四季度，而生產會在 2027 年初開始逐步提高？任何可以活動的部件都行。

Yes. First part, it's more NYMEX-based. Like he cited, we can -- right now the market would say, $3 in basin for '27. But even if you had $3 NYMEX and that $0.70 back, you'd be in the mid-2s in basin and you're talking a dollar cost structure on this gas to our $1.50 margin even in that level. And it's $0.50 F&D.

是的。第一部分，它更多地基於紐約商品交易所（NYMEX）。正如他所引用的，我們可以——現在市場會說，2027 年盆地價格為 3 美元。但即使紐約商品交易所的價格是 3 美元，加上 0.70 美元的返還，你在盆地的價格也只能達到 2 美元左右，而這種天然氣的成本結構是每美元 1 美元，即使在這種水平下，我們的利潤也只有 1.50 美元。而且是 0.50 美元 F&D。

So you're still having terrific returns. These are all local dry gas pads. The optionality here is kind of one of the key points and flexible. There's no commitments around it. So we can judge you at the time and we can hedge it as we have been as well.

所以你的收益依然非常可觀。這些都是當地的乾氣開採平台。這裡的選擇空間和靈活性是關鍵。對此沒有任何承諾。所以，我們可以在當時對你做出評判，也可以像我們一直以來那樣，對沖風險。

So $3 plus kind of NYMEX is more where our head was at with that tight basis. The second part is it's all second half capital. You won't see any of the production ramp until '27. Obviously, you have a six- to nine-month kind of cycle on drilling, completing and turn in line dates. So there will be second half capital. We looked at it, it's almost all second half capital. It's like 95% all second half on these two to three pads and then the production comes on in the first half of '27.

所以，在基差收窄的情況下，我們更關注的是紐約商品交易所（NYMEX）3美元左右的價格區間。第二部分是全部都是下半年的資本。2027 年之前你不會看到任何產能爬坡。顯然，鑽井、完工和交付管線的周期大約是六到九個月。所以會有第二筆資金。我們查了一下，幾乎全是下半年的資本。這兩到三個墊子下半年的產量大概佔了 95%，然後 2027 年上半年的生產就開始了。

Okay. I appreciate that. And just with respect to the buyback here, I was getting a sense, correct me if I'm wrong, I want to put words in your mouth, that the debt pay down is maybe a little bit more of a priority just given the fact that you kind of added some leverage, but you obviously have some nice hedges to take care of that. And the buyback is going to be maybe a little bit secondary and fairly opportunistic as well.

好的。我很感激。至於回購這件事，我感覺（如果我理解有誤請指正），考慮到你們增加了一些槓桿，償還債務可能更受重視，但你們顯然有一些不錯的對沖措施來應對這種情況。而股票回購可能只是次要的，而且也帶有相當的機會主義性質。

Yes, it's fair at this level. But if you do see any sort of opportunities on the equity, you should be pretty confident we'd take advantage of that.

是的，在這個級別上是公平的。但是，如果您發現股權方面有任何機會，您應該相當有信心我們會抓住這些機會。

Kalei Akamine, Bank of America.

卡雷‧阿卡明 (Kalei Akamine)，美國銀行。

My first question is on the growth option. I'm wondering if that investment sets you up for 4.5 bcfed early in 2027 and what the new maintenance capital number is associated with that volume level?

我的第一個問題是關於成長選項的。我想知道這項投資是否能讓你們在 2027 年初達到 45 億立方英尺/日的天然氣產量，以及與該產量水準相關的新的維護資本是多少？

That would be early in '27 and that's not a maintenance capital, running three rigs and two completion groups would add a couple of hundred million a day of growth in '28 and '29. So you continue to grow at that kind of $1.2 billion capital.

那將是 2027 年初，而且這不是維護資本，運營三個鑽井平台和兩個完井組將在 2028 年和 2029 年每天增加數億美元的增長。所以你們繼續以12億美元的資本規模發展壯大。

Our maintenance capital would still continue to be $900 million-ish. That's kind of what we were looking at this morning. It's pretty remarkable. So maintenance capital stays relatively flat even at those levels. just highly capital-efficient development program.

我們的維護資金仍將維持在9億美元左右。這就是我們今天早上主要關注的內容。這真是太了不起了。因此，即使在這些水準下，維護資本也保持相對穩定。這真是一個資本效率極高的開發案。

Got it. I appreciate that. And for my second question, just kind of based on your comments, it sounds like the growth option will be on the dry gas acreage, whether that's legacy Harrison County or HG's that you picked up.

知道了。我很感激。至於我的第二個問題，根據你的評論，聽起來增長的選擇將是乾氣田，無論是哈里森縣的傳統土地還是你收購的 HG 土地。

Just kind of wondering if there's sufficient egress to move those growth volumes around the basin or if you'll be spending additional in capital at AM?

我只是想知道是否有足夠的出口來轉移盆地內這些成長的石油產量，或者你們是否需要在AM額外投入資金？

AM does have some capital to get around $20 million this year to build out our dry gas Eastern to connect all of the various pipes and that'll provide enough gas and there's so much local demand that you'll be able to sell the gas locally.

AM公司確實有一些資金，今年可以籌集大約2000萬美元來建造我們的東部乾氣管道，連接所有不同的管道，這將提供足夠的天然氣，而且當地需求量很大，所以你可以在當地銷售這些天然氣。

Subash Chandra, StoneX Group.

Subash Chandra，StoneX集團。

So just curious, maybe the question for Dave. What's the PDH outlook in China in '26?

我只是好奇，也許這個問題應該問戴夫。2026年中國PDH市場前景如何？

Yes. So right now, I mean, current infrastructure is running in the 65% to 70% utilization range. We did have four plants that came on in 2025. So we're kind of continuing to see the absolute amount of volume that's capacity that's available in the ramps in that 300,000 to 400,000 barrel a day range and then two additional plants right now on the schedule to turn in line -- or come online, sorry, in 2026, and those totaled another 55,000 barrels a day of application.

是的。所以目前，我的意思是，現有基礎設施的使用率在 65% 到 70% 之間。我們有四家工廠將於 2025 年投產。因此，我們繼續看到，目前可用的產能絕對量在每天 30 萬至 40 萬桶之間，另外還有兩家工廠計劃在 2026 年投產，屆時將新增每天 5.5 萬桶的產能。

Excellent. And then on -- it seems like the completions in '26 guidance is longer laterals than '25. Just curious if -- is any of that HG related? Or is that going to be more influential in '27?

出色的。然後——2026 年的完工進度似乎比 2025 年更長。只是好奇問，這些症狀是否與懷孕劇吐有關？或者說，這種情況在 2027 年會更有影響力？

It's pretty much all HG related, actually. That's one of the attractions here. I mentioned it in a row, but they were able to design it as very efficient row that basically goes to north and south 20,000 feet both ways. It's kind of their average. So that takes us up to those 15,000 feet level from our kind of typical 13,000 feet. So definitely accretive on a lateral length HG development.

實際上，這幾乎都和HG有關。這是這裡的一大亮點。我之前提到過，但他們設計了一個非常有效率的線路，基本上南北雙向各延伸 20,000 英尺。這算是他們的平均水準。這樣一來，我們就從通常的 13,000 英尺高度上升到了 15,000 英尺高度。所以，這絕對是橫向長度 HG 發育的累積效應。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

John Abbott, Wolfe Research.

約翰‧阿博特，沃爾夫研究公司。

I want to go back to the question, and I'll go back to growth. And the HG transaction has added to your inventory, I mean we've already sat here and discussed that you have the option to get to 4.5 Bcf per day in 2027, you could grow beyond that. I guess when you sort of think about your inventory in hand and when you think about NGLs and dry gas, how do you think about the extent that you are willing to grow just given your visibility about that?

我想回到這個問題，我還是回到成長這個主題。而且 HG 交易增加了你的庫存，我的意思是，我們已經坐在這裡討論過，你可以選擇在 2027 年達到每天 45 億立方英尺的產量，你還可以繼續增長。我想，當你考慮到你手頭上的庫存，以及天然氣凝析液和乾氣的情況時，你會如何看待你願意在多大程度上擴大規模，尤其是在你對這些情況的了解如此清晰的情況下？

Yes, quite a bit. I mean, we are the ones that should grow. We have the most capital-efficient program. We have the FT that goes to the LNG exports. We have a local dry gas where it goes to where all the data centers and natural gas-fired generation is coming.

是的，相當多。我的意思是，我們才是應該成長的人。我們的方案是資金運用效率最高的。我們有用於液化天然氣出口的FT。我們這裡有本地的乾氣，它輸送到所有的資料中心和天然氣發電廠。

So all the demand centers that everyone projects that's coming over the next five years. We're the best positioned for it and we have the best rock. So that's kind of where our head was why would we navigate through this by strictly enforcing ourselves at maintenance capital. We want to be the most capital-efficient developer, and that's always our goal. And so a steady-state program is always the way to achieve that.

因此，所有大家預測未來五年內將會出現的需求中心。我們擁有最佳的地理位置和最好的岩石。所以，我們當時的想法是，為什麼我們要透過嚴格執行維護資本來解決這個問題？我們希望成為資本效率最高的開發商，這始終是我們的目標。因此，穩態程序始終是實現這一目標的途徑。

So just running three rigs and two completion crude flat would result in the most capital-efficient development and to toggle away from that based on monthly spot prices is not something that we probably do. And when you put that into our development plan, that results in this growth. So that's kind of where we came to on this. We are the ones that should be growing and meeting this upcoming demand, and we are the best positioned for it.

因此，只需運行三台鑽孔機和兩台完井原油，就能實現最高效的資本利用率，而根據每月現貨價格來改變這種做法，我們可能不會這樣做。當我們把這些因素納入我們的發展計畫時，就能帶來這種成長。所以，我們在這個問題上最終得出的結論就是這樣。我們才是應該發展壯大並滿足即將到來的需求的人，而我們在這方面也處於最有利的地位。

I appreciate it. And then the follow-up question here, I guess, it would be for Justin. So you were in the slide, you're highlighting the tightening of basin basis. I mean, I guess, the growth option here from bringing on the dry gas wells you're going to hedge that. But I guess when you sort of look at basin you tightening, how do you think about basis and growing into that base? How do you think about your impact to basis and the decision to grow?

謝謝。那麼接下來的問題，我想應該是問賈斯汀的。所以你在幻燈片中，重點強調了盆地地基的收緊。我的意思是，我想，從開採乾氣井中獲得的成長機會，你要對沖這種風險。但我想，當你觀察盆地收緊時，你會如何看待基礎以及如何向該基礎發展？您如何看待您對公司發展的影響以及公司決定擴張的原因？

Yes, I mean, we're talking a couple of hundred million a day of growth. I mean the demand members you're seeing are well in excess of that. So on a percentage basis, it's probably -- we're actually probably not adding to the or detracting from the supply and demand picture. So this isn't terrifically material. You're talking 200 million a day of gas production growth versus B and B a day of gas demand.

是的，我的意思是，我們說的是每天幾億的成長。我的意思是，你現在看到的需求會員數量遠遠超過了這個數字。所以從百分比來看，我們可能實際上既沒有增加也沒有減少供需關係。所以這並不是什麼特別重要的事。你們說的是每天天然氣產量增加 2 億，而天然氣需求量每天只有 B 和 B。

Sam Margolin, Wells Fargo.

Sam Margolin，富國銀行。

Back to your point on capital efficiency. It looks like just from your production guidance and your activity guidance that HG was -- had a positive impact on your corporate decline rate. Is that accurate? And if so, could you help quantify that a little bit? I'm just looking at the production from this spending.

回到你剛才提到的資本效率問題。從你們的生產指導和活動指導來看，HG 似乎對你們公司的衰退率產生了正面影響。準確嗎？如果是這樣，您能否幫忙量化一下？我只是在關注這筆支出帶來的產出。

Yes, our capital decline actually was in the low 20s. There is a little bit above that kind of mid-20s. But what we have is -- you have a flatter production file; you have some pent HG flatter. The midstream system has more of a kind of a flat production profile on the wells in the first couple of years, whereas ours is more well plumbed. So it's fairly similar, but a lot of their production had a constraint is around midstream. And so it's got a flatter production profile in the first couple of years.

是的，我們的資本損失其實只有20%左右。還有一點點超過25歲左右的。但我們現在的情況是——你有一個更平坦的生產文件；你有一些更平坦的五角星形。中游系統在前幾年油井的產量曲線較為平緩，而我們的系統則分佈較為合理。所以情況相當相似，但他們的許多生產都受到中游環節的限制。因此，在最初幾年裡，它的產量成長較為平緩。

Got it. Okay. And then just on the commercial side, there's a lot of focus on power, but the industrial piece along some of your firm transport destinations also has growth prospects? Are there any commercial or fixed gas supply opportunities in that category?

知道了。好的。再看看商業方面，雖然大家都很關注電力，但貴公司一些運輸目的地沿線的工業領域也具有成長前景？該領域是否存在任何商業或固定的天然氣供應機會？

This is Justin. We've spoken about this in previous calls, but Antero's firm transport book is set up with approximately 2 Bcf that heads down to the Gulf Coast, which Mike mentioned that gets into the LNG corridor. And within that path, not to mention what the local growth will be, and we have different capacity that will pass by those end users, just if you think geographically, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, all the way down to the LNG corridor, we've identified potentially 4, 6 Bcf of different demand that would be a potential fit with the Antero firm transport delivery. So we continue to have those conversations.

這是賈斯汀。我們在先前的電話會議中已經討論過這個問題，Antero 的固定運輸訂單大約有 20 億立方英尺的天然氣運往墨西哥灣沿岸，Mike 提到這些天然氣會進入液化天然氣走廊。沿著這條路徑，更不用說當地的增長情況了，我們有不同的能力將流經這些最終用戶，如果你從地理位置上考慮肯塔基州、田納西州、密西西比州，一直到液化天然氣走廊，我們已經確定了潛在的 40 億至 60 億立方英尺的不同需求，這可能與 Antero 的固定運輸交付相匹配。所以我們會繼續進行這些對話。

As Brendan mentioned, we continue to get RFPs for different supply for these data centers and power projects. And we've touched on this in the past as well. But the competition for that volume outbound will continue to increase over the next couple of years.

正如 Brendan 所提到的，我們不斷收到針對這些資料中心和電力專案的不同供應方案的 RFP。我們過去也曾談過這一點。但未來幾年，對這部分出境貨運量的競爭將會持續加劇。

And we have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. So I'll now hand the floor back to Dan Katzenberg for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把發言權交還給丹·卡岑伯格，讓他做總結發言。

Thank you for joining us on the conference call today. Please reach out with any further questions that you have. Have a good day.

感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。如果您還有其他疑問，請隨時與我們聯繫。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's call. All parties may disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。所有參與者均可中斷連線。